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Maybelline to Sponsor Hurricane Eye Flights in 2016

By: Jeff Masters 1:12 PM GMT on April 01, 2016

NOAA's Hurricane Hunters will have a new mission when they fly into the eyes of hurricanes this summer: issue plugs for their new corporate sponsor, eye makeup manufacturer Maybelline. At a joint NOAA/Maybelline press conference on April 1st, NOAA administrator Dr. Kathryn Sullivan lauded the agency's new sponsor, who outbid eyedrop manufacturer Visene for the exclusive sponsorship: "This remarkable partnership between NOAA and Maybelline is worth $1.23 million per year, which will enable the Hurricane Hunters to perform critical upgrades to their aging instrumentation, allowing them to continue to take the data crucial for predicting and understanding these most dangerous storms." Maybelline president David Greenberg added, "Maybelline's sponsorship of hurricane eye flights is a perfect public-private partnership blend. From Maybelline's perspective, what better way to draw attention to the power and beauty of eye makeup than to advertise Maybelline products from inside one of the most powerful and impressive eyes on the planet--the center of a mighty hurricanus maximus?"


Figure 1. NOAA's P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft show off their new paint job for sponsor Maybelline.

New paint jobs for the hurricane hunters, and new additions to hurricane eye reports
The new sponsorship means that NOAA's two P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft will be sporting new paint jobs. No longer will the aircraft carry NOAA's logo with the words, "U.S. Department of Commerce" on the sides; instead, the aircraft will carry the Maybelline logo, and sport lushly illustrated eyes done with Maybelline makeup on their tails. The sponsorship will also allow Maybelline to insert plugs for their products in the "Vortex" data messages that the aircraft transmit each time they penetrate the eye of a storm. A sample of Maybelline's new "Item Q" a hurricane hunter Vortex message is shown below:

URNT12 KWBC 102341
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122015
A. 10/23:23:33Z
B. 33 deg 18 min N
071 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 3078 m
D. 42 kt
E. 059 deg 3 nm
F. 199 deg 56 kt
G. 060 deg 43 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 8 C / 3070 m
J. 14 C / 3056 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WB12A KATE OB 07
Q. ADD A SUBTLE SHIMMER, OR DARE TO GO BOLD WITH A FULL GLITTER MAYBELLINE EYE SHADOW

COMMENTS: MAX FL WIND 72 KT 113 / 49 NM 22:17:38Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 140 / 31 KTS

The new Item "Q" enhancements will be included for hurricane with both male and female names, since "we want to encourage people of all genders to experiment with Maybelline makeup", Maybelline president Greenberg said.

Happy April Fool's Day!

We'll have a new post by Monday--no fooling'.
Jeff Masters

Humor

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

First!

Happy April Fools!
Reported!
Outstanding; Miss Piggy was about to have a heart attack over the fact that Noaa got the sponsorship and not her given that she is already on the team and needs to keep "her" eyes looking purty......................................
Gonzo must feel left out.
LMAO........got me with that headline
great blog as always no fooling
Oops, fell for that one, I did!
Well done - again!
Quoting 7. raylo:

Does this bother anyone or is it just me? What's next? Maybe Tidybowl sponsorship with a picture of a vortex? Pretty pathetic that we can't properly support our scientific agencies without selling out to corporate interests.
its a april fools day blog what does that mean well

Aprils fool
lolwut lmao
The official 2016 Atlantic hurricane season begins in 2 months.

Or ... did it already begin in January, with the formation of Hurricane Alex!?

It will be interesting to see if we get a busier hurricane season (number of named storms) than the last few years.

With the diminishing El Nino, will it be similar to 1983 or 1998?

Both years featured very different outcomes in the number of named storms, following powerful El Nino events.

However, in 1983 and 1998, the U.S. coast was slammed by powerful landfalling hurricanes.
Quoting 11. Stormwatch247:

The official 2016 Atlantic hurricane season begins in 2 months.

Or ... did it already begin in January, with the formation of Hurricane Alex!?

It will be interesting to see if we get a busier hurricane season (number of named storms) than the last few years.

With the diminishing El Nino, will it be similar to 1983 or 1998?

Both years featured very different outcomes in the number of named storms, following powerful El Nino events.

However, in 1983 and 1998, the U.S. coast was slammed by powerful landfalling hurricanes.

yeap and tropical wave begins next month
NOAA should have opted to go with Visine, since it gets the red out.

Hot and humid this morning in DC and my first
ironic thought which would not have made sense before this year

"Man it's hot!  This is worse than CHRISTMAS!"
16. SLU
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 1m1 minute ago

In terms of the tropical base state, September is looking juicy for strong Atlantic Hurricanes.
Quoting 15. georgevandenberghe:

Hot and humid this morning in DC and my first
ironic thought which would not have made sense before this year

"Man it's hot!  This is worse than CHRISTMAS!"

It could be very windy late tomorrow night with a fast moving cold front and a tight pressure gradient behind the cold front.
Maybelline...why can't ya be true...oh Maybelline, why can'tcha be true? Ya done started back doin' the things you used to do!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmxBKWVOWwg
Quoting 17. Tornado6042008X:

It could be very windy late tomorrow night with a fast moving cold front and a tight pressure gradient behind the cold front.
and snow for me tomorrow evening and more again sunday evening into early Monday morning before dawn coldest point will be Monday evening lows of -10 c overnight

that's cold for early april no fooling
21. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

IPCC Needs To Start Over Already 133 “Consensus-Skeptical” Papers In 2016 Over 660 Past Two Years!
Worth noting again for the possibility of some strong t-storms today for Florida and the East Coast based upon the current El Nino jet:




Quoting 21. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

IPCC Needs To Start Over Already 133 “Consensus-Skeptical” Papers In 2016 Over 660 Past Two Years!



Got a link to that list? I hardly think that is the case. Must be peer reviewed in reputable journals.
Not a huge threat today but some isolated storms could go severe with day time heating in Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard later this afternoon:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


Dangit! You got me. I honestly thought this was legit until I got to the "Item Q" part. Imagine the commercials they could do though. Show a HH aircraft flying through the eye of a storm, zoom out to show the full hurricane when suddenly it blinks and changes color! lol
Quoting 12. JRRP7:


yeap and tropical wave begins next month


Might even see tropical waves earlier this year
I say we may even see it this month
Quoting 18. ChiThom:

Maybelline...why can't ya be true...oh Maybelline, why can'tcha be true? Ya done started back doin' the things you used to do!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmxBKWVOWwg

My first thought as well.
.
Maybe it's a tropical cyclone, maybe it's Maybelline...

Sorry couldn't resist, happy April Fools everyone!
Quoting 23. Naga5000:



Got a link to that list? I hardly think that is the case. Must be peer reviewed in reputable journals.


Here's a link from Joe's Bastardi's Twitter page. I have no idea how legit it is or not.

IPCC Needs To Start Over. Already 133 "Consensus-Skeptical" Papers In 2016. Over 660 Past Two Years!

Link
Quoting 21. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

IPCC Needs To Start Over Already 133 “Consensus-Skeptical” Papers In 2016 Over 660 Past Two Years!


Still waiting for his apology for/explanation of the total bust of his DJFM forecasts. It would seem that basing forecasts on metaphysics rather than physics may not be the way to go.
Quoting 21. SLU:

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi

IPCC Needs To Start Over Already 133 %u201CConsensus-Skeptical%u201D Papers In 2016 Over 660 Past Two Years!

1) As Naga said, a "paper" only counts if it's a) peer-reviewed, b) published in a reputable journal, and c) is truly "skeptical". Oh, and c) it hasn't been retracted.

2) Yeah, we'll get right on that:

Here is the current doppler look across Conus; the storms along the Gulf coast are starting to fire a little better but I will say that their is a rather broad rain shield ahead of the frontal boundry helping to keep instability down so far:


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
@TropicalTidbits @EricBlake12 When Gulf of Guinea Cold tongue is stronger than average, genesis usually happens over western MDR more freq
we're going under here, flooding in the garage and I cant keep up with the shop vac.

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1115 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1013 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 1107 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1040 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 1013 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1002 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 844 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 934 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 852 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 847 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING     PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 758 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 756 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 730 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 619 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 654 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016


I'm still holding out for this to be revealed as an April fools joke.
18z...really?

Cfs has the Atlantic way too cold for peak season thanks to the cold error but it should start to show a more active peak H season.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13m13 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 @TropicalTidbits Also, the eq. Atlantic SSTAs will warm in the update since the bad runs had what, -10C anomalies?
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and snow for me tomorrow evening and more again sunday evening into early Monday morning before dawn coldest point will be Monday evening lows of -10 c overnight

that's cold for early april no fooling


Son is in Lake Placid for a hockey tournament. He'll get quite a shock.. 60s today but teens sunday morning. I warned him before he left.

Orleans Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsAreal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood WatchIssued: 10:33 AM CDT Apr. 1, 2016 – National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Orleans Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
northern Jefferson Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* until 1230 PM CDT

* at 1031 am CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include... New
Orleans... east New Orleans... Metairie... Avondale... Jefferson...
Gretna... Harahan... Westwego... Elmwood... Bridge
City... Arabi... River Ridge.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will make minor flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

High rainfall rates will continue to result in ponding of water in
urban areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as other
poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Avoid driving your vehicle
through flooded streets.

-NAO finally i think.
I always knew that with enough government cutbacks and tax breaks for the rich, private enterprise would step up with their excesses of wealth and happily fund vital services that maintain our infrastructure.
Quoting 44. Snacker2:

I always knew that with enough government cutbacks and tax breaks for the rich, private enterprise would step up with their excesses of wealth and happily fund vital services that maintain our infrastructure.

The irony is that it's believable.
Almost looks like winter....:)

Quoting 38. gr8lakebreeze:



I'm still holding out for this to be revealed as an April fools joke.
18z...really?


No joke..
Ha... thought it was true till I remembered it was April 1.
Quoting 49. Patrap:

Active Advisory: Flash Flood Warning, Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch
Mornin Pat...You folks cant catch a break
G'morn over there,

I killed my shop vac motor in less than a hour in the garage,

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
NORTHERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1113 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DALEVILLE...DOTHAN...HARTFORD...TAYLOR...MIDLAND CITY...SLOCOMB...SAMSON...
COWARTS...WEBB...KINSEY...MALVERN...REHOBETH...CLA YHATCHEE...GRIMES...
KINSTON...COFFEE SPRINGS...GREEN ACRES...CENTRAL CITY...HOLLIS DAIRY
ROAD AND SELLERSVILLE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA. URBAN AREAS AROUND DOTHAN WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&
CFS is continuing to show below-normal wind shear at peak time for most of the Atlantic. This will be the least shear for the Atlantic in several years.




Wow, this new blog is really an eye opener, lol!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1136 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1135 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 32 MILES WEST OF COCODRIE...OR 34 MILES  
SOUTHEAST OF BURNS POINT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES COULD BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
COCODRIE AROUND 1210 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LUMCON  
CENTER BUOY AND TAMBOUR BAY BUOY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE  
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 

Dulac, Golden Meadow, Nado indicated...

Quoting 53. HurricaneFan:

CFS is continuing to show below-normal wind shear at peak time for most of the Atlantic. This will be the least shear for the Atlantic in several years.




And about normal trade winds something that CaribBoy hates.
DAWSON CITY ICE BRIDGE CLOSING RECORD EARLY: The ice bridge over Yukon River at Dawson City in Canada is closing today after Dawson City's record warmest winter. The previous record earliest-in-the-year closing of it was on April 3, 1999. Dawson City was the capitol of Yukon Territory from 1898 to 1952

Link
Front yard


you almost had me!!!!
Addendum to #32: I'm not even going to bother. I clicked on the list of papers offered up as 'skeptical", and chose five at random for a closer look. The first one I picked had been refuted and debunked by subsequent research; the second wasn't skeptical of AGW at all, noting only that solar irradiance plays a part in earth temperatures; the third wasn't skeptical, either, acknowledging the large role anthropogenic CO2 emissions play in atmospheric temperatures; the fourth noted that human factors are exacerbating natural cycles such as the AMO; and the fifth was a bit of since-refuted nonsense written by a religion major/statistician.

Sigh. It's not the IPCC that "needs to start over"; it's whoever compiled that list of "skeptical" papers.
Lost the Garage battle

I bet the hurricane hunter guys will laugh their butts off about the "new paint job"
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1215 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST  
OF COCODRIE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GALLIANO...MOVING EAST AT 65  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...LEEVILLE...DULAC...CHAUVIN AND  
MONTEGUT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.  
Quoting 51. Patrap:

G'morn over there,

I killed my shop vac motor in less than a hour in the garage,




You are either going to need a bigger ShopVac or a drier garage. :)


The first "carbon-free" television commercial was reportedly produced by Instant Karma Films for Maybelline New York and Gotham Inc in 2006.

Link

Maybelline is owned by L’Oréal. A few months, ago L’Oréal stated "Reinforcing its commitment to fighting climate change, L’Oréal announces its ambition to become a 'carbon balanced' company by 2020. Through its sustainable sourcing projects, the Group aims to generate carbon gains corresponding to the amount of greenhouse gas emissions linked to its activities. "

Link
We're gonna have a few hours to drain and pump down until these new storms out in the Western GOM move Neast and inland.

Hogs for the Cause Fest at City Park have pushed back the opening from 3pm sched, to 6pm.

Bring ya boots.


Quoting 23. Naga5000:


Got a link to that list? I hardly think that is the case. Must be peer reviewed in reputable journals.
Perhaps he is talking about papers written by elementary of high school students?
/snark
Reports starting to trickle in this afternoon (which is a separate issue from the flooding rains) lots of areas in the South are going to be hit with flooding rains to the training bands going on with this particular front):

today Reports Graphic
Quoting 30. Sfloridacat5:



Here's a link from Joe's Bastardi's Twitter page. I have no idea how legit it is or not.

IPCC Needs To Start Over. Already 133 "Consensus-Skeptical" Papers In 2016. Over 660 Past Two Years!

Link


Ahh Notrickszone, one of the worst denier sites. They do this every so often, the grand majority of those paper do not question AGW or the consensus. It's a mislead. If they had real data, they would publish.
I'm surprised people haven't pointed out the obvious yet..The models are showing troubling signs closer to home with a wetter environment low trade wind,above normal sst and below normal shear across the caribbean and GOM.That in its self spells trouble to a lot of people along the coast.2016 could be really dangerous if everything aligns perfectly.
Quoting 73. Naga5000:



Ahh Notrickszone, one of the worst denier sites. They do this every so often, the grand majority of those paper do not question AGW or the consensus. It's a mislead. If they had real data, they would publish.


Do you have any idea what Joe Bastardi's agenda is with his resistance to AGW? (Attention?)
Too early to know just yet how favorable or unfavorable conditions will be in the Atlantic/Gulf for this H-season and where the A-B high will set up for the peak period. We have seen lots of issues the past 5-6 years with what appeared to be very favorable conditions going in, then, some anomalies like very fast trade winds or very dry/arid/stable air over the Central Atlantic MDR inhibiting many storms. The luck for the US could run out this year (in terms of major Cat coastline hit) but then again, maybe not. Remember all the struggling, but named, tropical storms we have seen the past several Atlantic seasons that help the "numbers" in terms of the summer pre-season forecast from the usual suspects but a relative lack of high end majors (not close to the predictions for majors).............................Conversely, the Pacific Basin has been generating some monster cyclones the past several years along with major activity in the E-Pac.

Just a matter of time before we see the recent break for the US end with a few majors hitting a populated area of the Gulf or Florida (or East Coast) but not looking forward to seeing the current record quiet period end.
It's going to be tricky to say where the heaviest rain and severe weather will be today, or if there will be any severe. The NWS discussion here addresses the complication well:


392
FXUS62 KTAE 011441
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1041 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...Severe Weather and Flooding Threat Continues through early
Saturday...

.Update...

Initial round of convection weakened as it moved east, but another
large area of convection is developing into our Southeast Alabama
zones. Initially, this appears to be setting up just north of the
areas of heaviest rain yesterday across Geneva and Houston
Counties where 3-4 inches fell. An additional 2-3 inches is likely
from today`s convection. Our Southeast AL and adjacent Southwest
GA zones are under a flash flood watch an a tornado watch is also
in effect until 19Z. Deep layer shear continues to look supportive
of severe weather, but the immediate concern will be flash
flooding.

&&

.Prev Discussion [641 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 9 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
approaching the Mississippi River, with plenty of deep moist
convection ahead of it to our north and northwest. Vapor imagery
and upper air data showed split upper level flow over the CONUS.
The main feature of interest for our region was the positive-tilt
northern stream trough over the Central Plains. This trough will
be slow to translate eastward, and so will the surface cold front.
With ample moisture and large scale ascent today and tonight, it`s
not a question of will it rain; it`s simply a question of when and
how much. This is the complicated part of this forecast, as
mesoscale features and diabatic temperature changes, which are
often a challenge for numerical guidance, will likely play the
largest role in the details. It`s safe to say that beginning
around daybreak, numerous rain bands will begin to develop across
western portions of our forecast area, the spread eastward by
afternoon.

Assessing the timing and extent of the severe thunderstorm threat
is challenging. It is nearly certain that the deep layer shear
will be sufficient for storm organization, and that the 0-1 km
shear will be somewhat supportive of a tornado as well. The tricky
part is forecasting buoyancy. The NWP guidance forecasts unusually
steep mid- tropospheric lapse rates this morning, but then quickly
destroys the EML through latent heating from a large area of deep
moist convection. The models also forecast a sharp increase in
surface- based CIN by afternoon as rain-cooled air helps stabilize
the PBL across much of our forecast area. This could limit the
threat of surface-based storms (and wind damage/tornadogenesis)
later this afternoon. Then there is the question of whether or not
the PBL can destabilize overnight, especially with ongoing rain.
Confidence is therefore low in forecasting the details of the
severe storm threat. For those isolated storms with the strongest
updrafts, the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and hail,
though an isolated tornado is also possible.
Quoting 75. Sfloridacat5:



Do you have any idea what Joe Bastardi's agenda is with his resistance to AGW? (Attention?)


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Went from 100% chance of storms today to 20%

Is this an April Fool's joke?
Quoting 80. Articuno:

Went from 100% chance of storms today to 20%

Is this an April Fool's joke?
If it storms both forecasts can still be correct.
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

I'm surprised people haven't pointed out the obvious yet..The models are showing troubling signs closer to home with a wetter environment low trade wind,above normal sst and below normal shear across the caribbean and GOM.That in its self spells trouble to a lot of people along the coast.2016 could be really dangerous if everything aligns perfectly.
1985
Quoting 75. Sfloridacat5:



Do you have any idea what Joe Bastardi's agenda is with his resistance to AGW? (Attention?)


I think it's a consumer base. His product hooks in a large percentage of people because he is against the consensus. 19.99 a month.
Quoting 82. Gearsts:

1985
Quoting 30. Sfloridacat5:



Here's a link from Joe's Bastardi's Twitter page. I have no idea how legit it is or not.

IPCC Needs To Start Over. Already 133 "Consensus-Skeptical" Papers In 2016. Over 660 Past Two Years!

Link


If you actually read some of those papers, they are not skeptical of AGW but are researching different things. For instance, natural variation, the role of solar cycles on regional climate, things of that nature. I do not believe I have come across one that explicitly states opposition to AGW, instead they are all pieces of a puzzle to examine natural variability. Something that still exists in a warming world. It's a very deceptive method, and like I stated previously, they could simply do a study similar to Cook et al to quantify rejection by multiple reader's and survey of the scientists. Just because the paper is not about AGW or does not take a position does not mean it is about the consensus. Also, a great majority of those papers that question AGW are not published, but instead reports, something that doesn't require review. At best this is blog pseudo science. I am not aware of any published study that examines the consensus that has not come up with overwhelming support for AGW in the published literature.

moderate to strong nia
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF SOUTH GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF VIDALIA GEORGIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 74...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 23h23 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Far North Atlantic SST much colder than late March active era (1995-2012) avg. Tropical Atlantic near active era avg
Thanks dok!

I did not laugh at this.
Lol. Thanks for the giggle. 😊
BTW forgot to mention, loved the April fool's blog post :)
93. bwi
Cold air ready to come toward the eastern U.S. riding a wavy jet!

Did anyone laugh at this blog? I did not. I found it ridiculous that this would happen (even thought it won't). Why celebrate April Fools Day? Yeah, it's Spongebob's favorite holiday, but it is a day I fear most.

I hate jokes.
Quoting 94. 62901IL:

Did anyone laugh at this blog? I did not. I found it ridiculous that this would happen (even thought it won't). Why celebrate April Fools Day? Yeah, it's Spongebob's favorite holiday, but it is a day I fear most.

I hate jokes.
Is this an April Fool's Joke? I forget every year that we get a silly blog, until about half way through when I remember what day it is. Personally, I like it! The wife doesn't, but it is because today is her birthday. She is like the negative nelly above on April 1st...
Quoting 95. cynyc2:

Is this an April Fool's Joke? I forget every year that we get a silly blog, until about half way through when I remember what day it is. Personally, I like it! The wife doesn't, but it is because today is her birthday. She is like the negative nelly above on April 1st...


Happy birthday to your wife, then.
Another .6" yesterday from the 8 minute 1 p.m. downpour, so a much needed 1.7" total for S C IL. Drier air came in almost immediately after, dew pts now down into the lower 30s, around 50 now, 56 was forecast high, doubt we make it. Would go look for morels tomorrow, but with red flag warning and possible 40-50 mph gusts I think I'll stay out of the woods:) Current gust are 25 from W, sustained 10-15.

Guess most of those hard freeze temps stay in upper OH & TN valleys next week? Although we have a 28 forecast for Sun. morning. Cherries & peaches should be ok, but close. Hope it doesn't go any lower.
Quoting 85. Naga5000:



If you actually read some of those papers, they are not skeptical of AGW but are researching different things. For instance, natural variation, the role of solar cycles on regional climate, things of that nature. I do not believe I have come across one that explicitly states opposition to AGW, instead they are all pieces of a puzzle to examine natural variability. Something that still exists in a warming world. It's a very deceptive method, and like I stated previously, they could simply do a study similar to Cook et al to quantify rejection by multiple reader's and survey of the scientists. Just because the paper is not about AGW or does not take a position does not mean it is about the consensus. Also, a great majority of those papers that question AGW are not published, but instead reports, something that doesn't require review. At best this is blog pseudo science. I am not aware of any published study that examines the consensus that has not come up with overwhelming support for AGW in the published literature.

It's a cute little rhetorical catch-22 that the fake skeptics are trying to run. You see, if climatologists look at natural factors, then they are "anti-AGW". OTOH, if they don't look at natural factors then they are ignoring natural factors, and therefore, "AGW cultists." Heads they win, tails you lose.

The fact that the fake skeptics, like Bastardi, have to resort to such tactics should tell any reasonable person that the fake skeptics are intellectually (and perhaps morally) bankrupt.
Quoting 94. 62901IL:

Did anyone laugh at this blog? I did not. I found it ridiculous that this would happen (even thought it won't). Why celebrate April Fools Day? Yeah, it's Spongebob's favorite holiday, but it is a day I fear most.

I hate jokes.

I love jokes, but I, too, dislike April Fools Day. People who aren't funny the other 364 days of the year suddenly think they are a font of wit on April 1...for some reason.

Reminds me of New Year's Eve.
I thought this post was brilliant. Just close enough to reality for the headline to be believable, but ridiculous when you read the text. Well done.
pat may need this wet vac maybe



nam snow cast for weekend till tuseday
A very nice day outside to start April.
well I know we will leap into winter for the next few days maybe even a couple of weeks beginning later tonight
its been so nice and mild
we have even had a couple of rounds of spring time thunder storms
now all gone as winter decides to mess around for a bit
yet again
107. vis0
i hope the OrEYEon hurricane hunters will have the precision & intensity as does Maybellines color of a liquid liners in a smudgeproof, waterproof gel formula by Maybelline. ... DIP tip of brush into gel formula and wipe off excess on rim of jar. ...  All this is good as long as they flights can last as long as look we can get with the : Expert Wear Eyeshadow, Eye Studio Lasting Drama Gel Liner. (just read the blobyte)

And if Mods will allow me to go OFF TOPIC, Lets Observe the weather and learn.
Quoting 30. Sfloridacat5:



Here's a link from Joe's Bastardi's Twitter page. I have no idea how legit it is or not.

IPCC Needs To Start Over. Already 133 "Consensus-Skeptical" Papers In 2016. Over 660 Past Two Years!

Link


The No Brains Zone. Why am I not surprised. Their idea of peer reviewed is forum nutter comments on WUWT.

Random sampling, like Naga and Neo. Not a paper. Not a paper. Debunked/refuted paper. Not AGW related. Actually supports AGW. Hmmm.

Looks like the No Brains Zone could use some people with more reading comprehension skills than a grapefruit. :P
4.23" here since Sunrise and falling again..Heavily.
Quoting 111. Patrap:

4.23" here since Sunrise and falling again..Heavily.


Send it west please Pat
Quoting 96. 62901IL:



Happy birthday to your wife, then.
Thank you kind sir! This place is always the friendliest - and that is no joke!
Good evening guys... no rain today





But is expected tonight and tomorrow :) Rain with thunder !!
Quoting 75. Sfloridacat5:



Do you have any idea what Joe Bastardi's agenda is with his resistance to AGW? (Attention?)
I don't think there is any resistance to the climate change issue with JB. He just states that after this Nino dies, and the Nina forms, with a cold PDO, and AMO, the Earths temps should return to the temps we saw in the 70's. How do sun spots affect the temps of the oceans? Any body know the answer?
Quoting 79. CraigsIsland:



$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
No, that's more like the proponents.
A visualization of the recently sequenced Aedes aegypti genome. Each of the 3,752 colored lines is a fragment of its three chromosomes that could not be fit together without the additional information that the Aedes Genome Working Group hopes to produce. A 2007 genome map for Aedes aegypti is fragmented into about 10 times as many pieces.



I'm glad scientists have made progress since 2007. But we need to get it together.
Quoting 101. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

pat may need this wet vac maybe


That's smaller then a beer can, must not be a very big rain event.
Everyone have a safe weather weekend. For those along the Gulf, in Florida, and the Eastern Seaboard, the weather is going to be really nice and beautiful by the end of this weekend and going into next week once this current mess clears out:





121. OKsky
Quoting 116. NativeSun:

I don't think there is any resistance to the climate change issue with JB. He just states that after this Nino dies, and the Nina forms, with a cold PDO, and AMO, the Earths temps should return to the temps we saw in the 70's. How do sun spots affect the temps of the oceans? Any body know the answer?


OOO I do! I do! The answer is they haven't since 1975 thanks to other sources of heat (cough cough agwcough) overriding the effect.
Link

When temps don't go back to the 70's what excuse will he squirm into next?
I hit view comments instead of the article, haven't read a single comment, this is a joke right? I usually get fooled at least once on this day. You could sell me a bathing suit in the Arctic.
Quoting 80. Articuno:

Went from 100% chance of storms today to 20%

Is this an April Fool's joke?


Better dry slotting. Line still possible with front.
Quoting 41. georgevandenberghe:



Son is in Lake Placid for a hockey tournament. He'll get quite a shock.. 60s today but teens sunday morning. I warned him before he left.



He sent a picture of Lake Placid. No ice. THree years ago when we were there first week in April, it was solidly iced over with snow on top.
Quoting 122. win1gamegiantsplease:

I hit view comments instead of the article, haven't read a single comment, this is a joke right? I usually get fooled at least once on this day. You could sell me a bathing suit in the Arctic.


That market should improve in a few centuries.
Quoting 126. georgevandenberghe:



That market should improve in a few centuries.

few centuries
try a couple of months
it will be in the 70's and 80's with a couple of 90's come july august up there
may even be an ac market too
know Alaska already sells and services some up there
Quoting 116. NativeSun:

I don't think there is any resistance to the climate change issue with JB. He just states that after this Nino dies, and the Nina forms, with a cold PDO, and AMO, the Earths temps should return to the temps we saw in the 70's. How do sun spots affect the temps of the oceans? Any body know the answer?


JB is a greenhouse effect denier. On video.

The "it's the sun, stupid" argument has been beaten worse than the horse. Natural forcings currently dictate a cooling trend.
That mini ice age is going to start any day now, haven't you heard? Weak solar cycle 24 is going downhill fast, so is El-Nino.
Any day now, any day...........


Sunspot number: 11
Updated 01 Apr 2016






Quoting 81. BaltimoreBrian:

If it storms both forecasts can still be correct.


Still hasn't stormed.. :)
Quoting 117. NativeSun:

No, that's more like the proponents.


The average climate scientist pulls in around 75k a year. If they are doing it for the money, they are doing it wrong. On the other hand, someone with a subscription service at 19.99 a month would make that in gross profit in one month with 3,572 subscriptions. Please do explain how being a scientist is more profitable than grifting the ignorant.
Quoting 128. Naga5000:



JB is a greenhouse effect denier. On video.

The "it's the sun, stupid" argument has been beaten worse than the horse. Natural forcings currently dictate a cooling trend.



The "it's the sun" crowd have never learned/choose to ignore thermodynamics. Their line of logic is equivalent to saying that boiling water returns instantly to room temperature as soon as you take it off the burner.
Quoting 131. Naga5000:



The average climate scientist pulls in around 75k a year. If they are doing it for the money, they are doing it wrong. On the other hand, someone with a subscription service at 19.99 a month would make that in gross profit in one month with 3,572 subscriptions. Please do explain how being a scientist is more profitable than grifting the ignorant.


Oh come now Naga. Haven't you seen the parking lot at GSFC's climate research center? You can tell they're making bank! You can't turn around without seeing 10 and 20 year old Hondas and Ford Fiestas! They're definitely on the take!

You either have to be really ignorant or really stupid to think one becomes a scientist in any field for the money. An MBA at an oil company easily makes several times what an established scientist makes.
Earth Atmo 2.0 has left da Building'......



Man, your a Crazy Dude Patrap,....,and 5.17" in the bucket, scheweeet Man, really groovy'


Quoting 117. NativeSun:

No, that's more like the proponents.
Quoting 79. CraigsIsland:



$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


I should also add... In America, credibility can be bought (I'm sure that's somewhat true elsewhere, but I'm highlighting this industry for that particular perception). I pity the fool who takes the money over ethical consciousness. We need more actual science and debate than parroting bad science. JB presents himself as credible and people believe him.

If you're Heartland Institute or whatever pro-oil/pro-fossil fuel business to prop up and support, you're looking at buying credibility. It's not unheard of in other industries and it's definitely in play in this debate.

Don't look at your own finances first - look at the science and the world in its current state first.
I thought this cold snap that has hit the Upper Midwest was an April Fools joke until I walked outside...
Quoting 111. Patrap:

4.23" here since Sunrise and falling again..Heavily.
You need your own personal Levee....

Quoting 133. Xyrus2000:



Oh come now Naga. Haven't you seen the parking lot at GSFC's climate research center? You can tell they're making bank! You can't turn around without seeing 10 and 20 year old Hondas and Ford Fiestas! They're definitely on the take!

You either have to be really ignorant or really stupid to think one becomes a scientist in any field for the money. An MBA at an oil company easily makes several times what an established scientist makes.

What keeps me in science certainly isn't the pay - it's the pure joy of conspiring to take away other people's freedoms.
Wish I'd visited the blog before Dr. M got on TWC Wunderground show and got me good.
Category 5 makeup -- For when you want to destroy the competition.
Category 1 makeup -- For when you want to show your power, but not so much as to scare all the guys away
Tropical storm makeup -- Seriously, why buy this one?




Forecast for .10" over two days, Take what you can get....
Quoting 141. Gearsts:



Bonnie?
Quoting 86. JRRP7:


moderate to strong ni�a

April Fools alright. Oh CFS you've been such a nino fool as of late. Funny thing is i heard you nailed it in last year forecast.
Quoting 138. PedleyCA:

You need your own personal Levee....



I have levees to the N, S, E, and West.

Also, Im one mile from Here. This is the Bonnabel Canal Pumping station. To the N is the 20 Ft Lake Levee at the S Shore of Lake Pontchartrain ,just east of the Causeway bridge.

Looking closely at that raised structure on the left..that is the Pumping Station CAt-5 Safe House ,35 ft above the Ground level.

Wrote a blog early this morning sort of like this one about Maybelline and NOAA except it was about Budget Suites of America and NASA. It wasn't a joke either.

Next Space X launch, 4/8 is carrying a collapsed new living quarters to attach to the ISS and inflate into another module. It was contracted out to Bigelow Aerospace, the founder of which is Robert Bigelow who owned Budget Suites of America. The end goal here is space hotels. They acquired the license and research from NASA in 2000 after congress ended what NASA had started decades ago. The hotel is coming along quicker than the tourist rocket. Bigelow had to lay off recently because of it. There is a gif of the module inflating and the rest of it in my blog.

This one wasn't in there.. They are also developing the B330.

The B330 is an expandable space habitat manufactured by Bigelow Aerospace. The design was evolved from NASA's TransHab habitat concept. The B330 will have 330 cubic meters (12,000 cu/ft) of internal space. The craft will support zero-gravity research including scientific missions, manufacturing processes, a destination for space tourism and a craft for missions destined for the Moon and Mars.




really?

c'mon, man

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAY ME - KGYX 855 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAUNTON MA - KBOX 735 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW YORK NY - KOKX 722 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 541 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 609 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
I do believe this is my first ever Maine Severe T-Storm Radar posting.





Quoting 147.

Patrap

(snip) Looking closely at that raised structure on the left..that is the
Pumping Station CAt-5 Safe House ,35 ft above the Ground level
.

You need that pumping station in your garage.....
INCREASING CLOUDS...COOLING AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TURNS INTO AN OPEN WAVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
POSSIBLY COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS
BRINGS 1-1.2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THE THURSDAY
TROUGH...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LAYERS
AT FIRST...SOME OF THE RAIN COULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THAT THE DEEP MOIST
LAYER QUICKLY REACHES THE SURFACE BY LATER THURSDAY...AND THE
ECMWF AND GFS GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION FOR THAT TIME-PERIOD. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME POSSIBLE
LINGERING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER US. ALTHOUGH CUT-OFF LOWS LIKE THESE ARE
NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE THIS FAR OUT...GIVEN
THE DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE THURSDAY TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING A LITTLE.

3 storms in 5 days? Not going to bite on that yet!
ROTFLMAO! The best April 1 blog in recorded history!

Thank you.

The home here was built in 1950 and the grade around me is Higher on 2 sides now.

The House is raised 3 feet above level ground as my porch is up 5 feet to the street. It runs from I-10 to the Lake.
Man, rainfall rates have been really intense in the stronger cells here, I was driving back home in a heavy cell that past through here on the southeast side of Tallahassee earlier, while driving uphill, the rainfall rate was really heavy, and it caused a massive amount of runoff that deflected into my car.

It caused my electrical circuit to start too short out, my lights started to dim, the wind shield wipers slowed, the engine power dropped, the steering died, and my car nearly stalled. Thankfully I was able to quickly pull into a gas station and the power stabilized back normal. I just waited until the rainfall rate settled a bit, that was scary.

This the bad part about driving a small car that is low to the ground. We already have had an inch and a lot more is coming, we are getting a lot of loud thunder from a cell coming in again soon.

That line in the central panhandle is looking really strong, a lot of lightning and very intense rainfall with it.
Where is everybody?
Never seen the blog this dead!
Quoting 157. Tornado6042008X:

Where is everybody?

we're sleeping.
  I think we are in the "Twilight Zone" Again. Happy April Fools Day Fellow WU'ers
Quoting 157. Tornado6042008X:

Where is everybody?
Wait'in for hurricane season...or at least the next interesting weather event to come around.We find out what names get retired from the rotating hurricane list in the Atlantic during the next two weeks.
Quoting 159. Grothar:



Not here, we're getting a torrential down pour and lots of lightning, instantaneous rainfall rates of 3-5 inches an hour at the FSU weather station!
Ahhhh for the first time in nearly 3 years I can log on and not see the impending doom El nino will have on Florida.Wow it almost feels like a completely different blog...
This is a bit Interesting- to say the least and apparently TRUE- Good way to kind of close off this April Fool's -after Dr. Master's 'eye' captivating blog...

Snow falls in Guadeloupe in extraordinary weather phenomenon
Dominica News Online - Friday, April 1st, 2016 at 4:01 PM
FacebookTwitterdel.icio.usStumbleUponPrintemailGo ogle BuzzLinkedInReddit
Residents film the falling flakes on Thursday

No, it is not an April Fools Day joke, snowflakes actually fell in the neighbouring French island of Guadeloupe...

The event, which was described as ‘exceptional’ by a French meteorologist took place on Thursday, March 31 in the municipality of St. Claude.

Reports from French media indicate that a very fine snowfall blanketed the hills above the town.

French meteorologist, Alain Museleque, explained the extraordinary phenomenon on Guadeloupe Premiere TV.

“We had a mass of clouds that arrived over St. Claude,” he said in French and translated by McCathy Marie. “Accompanying this mass of clouds was some very cold air. In this very cold air, in the mass of clouds, we had the creation of some snowflakes which fell to the ground. This has never before been seen in Guadeloupe. This is an exceptional event that we will never forget.”

Two weeks ago in the same area, in a residential district which is just below La Soufriere Volcano overlooking the Town of Basse Terre, residents were surprised to see hailstones falling from the sky.
*No doubt some light snow -fall may have also occurred on the Slopes of Morne Diablotin which is Dominica's tallest Mountain just to the south of Guadeloupe, however, its located in a National park zone where there are no inhabitants to observe or report accordingly. (Meteorology wise- this year is being similarities to 1998- though there have not been any reports thus far-back then we did have hail reported in some of the North Easternmost communities of the island. Time will tell with the predicted -low pressure system forecast by the GFS/ CFS if such a scenario will materialise through the 6th-14th of this month.
***CLICK HERE TO READ REPORT IN FRENCH-http://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/guadeloupe/ap res-les-grelons-saint-claude-la-neige-345627.html

God's Blessings to All!
Quoting 162. Jedkins01:



Not here, we're getting a torrential down pour and lots of lightning, instantaneous rainfall rates of 3-5 inches an hour at the FSU weather station!



Other than the blob that passed us a few days ago, we are dry, dry, dry. Supposed to be in the 90's tomorrow.
166. 882MB
Maybe its Maybelline. ;)
Not to be outdone by the more Senior Mets, Junior (weekend overnight newbie) Met Combs proves that he can say a LOT in only one sentence.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS TRAINING OF CELLS IS EXPECTED
BUT MOST OF THESE AREAS HAVE RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SINCE THIS PAST WINTER SO WHILE THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL, TEMPORARY FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH.

Yes, that was all one sentence.

Bravo, Jr. Met Combs, bravo.

(from JAXNWS)

Bonnie?
Quoting 165. Grothar:



Other than the blob that passed us a few days ago, we are dry, dry, dry. Supposed to be in the 90's tomorrow.


Maybe you should go to FSU and pick up a few inches.
Quoting 167. aquak9:

Not to be outdone by the more Senior Mets, Junior (weekend overnight newbie) Met Combs proves that he can say a LOT in only one sentence.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS TRAINING OF CELLS IS EXPECTED
BUT MOST OF THESE AREAS HAVE RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SINCE THIS PAST WINTER SO WHILE THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL, TEMPORARY FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH.

Yes, that was all one sentence.

Bravo, Jr. Met Combs, bravo.

(from JAXNWS)


Someone needs to introduce him to the period and an advanced concept known as the paragraph.

Warm AK day, but really great out - shorts and t-shirt weather for me, until about an hour ago when the rain and wind came. Which is irritated since the Aurora's are supposed to be spectacular, if you can find a clear place to see them.
Whats in the center of a Hurricanes eye?

It's a Bird!

Its a Plane!

Maybe its Maybelline?
Quoting 160. PedleyCA:

  I think we are in the "Twilight Zone" Again. Happy April Fools Day Fellow WU'ers



How's your weather ped?

Quoting 172. Dakster:



How's your weather ped?



  Pretty much like this. Today was 51.8F & 76.1F, gonna get warmer.... normal is 73/48

I see there is no rain in your forecast either... :(

Quoting 174. Dakster:

I see there is no rain in your forecast either... :(
  There is a chance of .10" over Thurs-Fri. Time will tell, probably won't need any additional sandbags, one should do....
April Showers bring May Flowers, here is to hoping the first one happens at least....
Quoting 175. PedleyCA:


  There is a chance of .10" over Thurs-Fri. Time will tell, probably won't need any additional sandbags, one should do....



Do you still have it left over from the last time you got .1 inches?
Quoting 169. Dakster:



Maybe you should go to FSU and pick up a few inches.


Yeah we have plenty of inches to spare, 4.72 from last Thursday-Sunday, and approaching 3 inches tonight right now and a more is on the way, thundering loud here.

Add all that up and so far we've had near 8 inches in the past 8 days, we could maybe get another 1-2 inches overnight, we have inches to spare!
A tropical disturbance (14F) located at 13.4S 168.2E east of Vanuatu. It is expected to gradually intensify and move southeastwards.

The potential for TD14F to develop into a tropical cyclone southwest of Fiji is HIGH in the next 3 days.
Good morning, I guess I should put some gas in the tractor, it looks like I'll be pushing some snow around.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

FLZ023>025-124-125-GAZ150-164>166-021030-
COASTAL DUVAL FL-INLAND NASSAU FL-BAKER FL-COASTAL NASSAU FL-
INLAND DUVAL FL-CHARLTON GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-WARE GA-
COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
535 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAKER...DUVAL...NASSAU...
SOUTHEASTERN WARE...SOUTHEASTERN CHARLTON AND SOUTHERN CAMDEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM EDT...

AT 534 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FOLKSTON TO NEAR TAYLOR TO NEAR OLUSTEE.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 55 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ST. MARYS...KINGSLAND...FERNANDINA BEACH...ORANGE PARK...
HILLIARD...CALLAHAN...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL ARPT...ARLINGTON...KINGS
BAY BASE...TAYLOR...YULEE...MACCLENNY...GLEN ST. MARY...ORTEGA...CRAIG
FIELD...KINGS FERRY...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE AND RATLIFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3019 8164 3017 8246 3054 8233 3079 8230
3082 8142 3042 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 266DEG 46KT 3079 8194 3044 8220 3022 8251

$$
Quoting 116. NativeSun:

I don't think there is any resistance to the climate change issue with JB. He just states that after this Nino dies, and the Nina forms, with a cold PDO, and AMO, the Earths temps should return to the temps we saw in the 70's.

He doesn't know that carbon dioxide happens to be a ghg. That is, he pretends not to know, to fool the likes of you.
I sucked in.

:) Thanks !! - from this Poisson d'Avril
Quoting 121. OKsky:



OOO I do! I do! The answer is they haven't since 1975 thanks to other sources of heat (cough cough agwcough) overriding the effect.
Link

When temps don't go back to the 70's what excuse will he squirm into next?

No excuses, it will just show him he was wrong, and he will admit it, but what if he is right, will all these so called climate change experts on this sight admit they were wrong? Does anyone know what the correlation is, between sun spots and the ocean temps?
Quoting 127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


few centuries
try a couple of months
it will be in the 70's and 80's with a couple of 90's come july august up there
may even be an ac market too
know Alaska already sells and services some up there
It gets into the 80's in Alaska in the summer. Been their, done that.
Quoting 136. CraigsIsland:



I should also add... In America, credibility can be bought (I'm sure that's somewhat true elsewhere, but I'm highlighting this industry for that particular perception). I pity the fool who takes the money over ethical consciousness. We need more actual science and debate than parroting bad science. JB presents himself as credible and people believe him.

If you're Heartland Institute or whatever pro-oil/pro-fossil fuel business to prop up and support, you're looking at buying credibility. It's not unheard of in other industries and it's definitely in play in this debate.

Don't look at your own finances first - look at the science and the world in its current state first.
This works for both sides of the debate, as well.
Quoting 146. VibrantPlanet:


April Fools alright. Oh CFS you've been such a nino fool as of late. Funny thing is i heard you nailed it in last year forecast.
That's the only time it was right.
188. JRRP7
Quoting 163. washingtonian115:

Ahhhh for the first time in nearly 3 years I can log on and not see the impending doom El nino will have on Florida.Wow it almost feels like a completely different blog...
Didn't really think there would be any doom in Florida. All hype and no bite!
Quoting 186. NativeSun:

This works for both sides of the debate, as well.

Nope. That's just false equivalence nonsense. For climatologists, the opposite is true; there is going to be far, far more money and fame in disproving AGW than there is in confirming it at this point.

And for the record, Bastardi is a bonehead. He is consistently wrong on climate and has actually accused scientists of fraud...based on his own inability to read a rather simple graph. Why anyone listens to him on the subject of climate is a mystery to anyone with even a passing familiarity of the topic.

Link
Quoting 184. NativeSun:

No excuses, it will just show him he was wrong, and he will admit it, but what if he is right, will all these so called climate change experts on this sight admit they were wrong? Does anyone know what the correlation is, between sun spots and the ocean temps?


I responded with a link that debunks that it's the sun argument. So how about this, do you know about the correlation between swimming pool drowning and number of films Nicholas Cage appears in?
Quoting 184. NativeSun:

No excuses, it will just show him he was wrong, and he will admit it, but what if he is right, will all these so called climate change experts on this sight admit they were wrong? Does anyone know what the correlation is, between sun spots and the ocean temps?
Yes, when there are sunspots there is warming in the oceans. When there are no sunspots, there is warming in the oceans. The Sun gets sunspots, and the Sun causes warming in the oceans.

It ain't rocket science.
Quoting 182. cRRKampen:


He doesn't know that carbon dioxide happens to be a ghg. That is, he pretends not to know, to fool the likes of you.



"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

Upton Sinclair
everyday i look for jbs free video clip
Quoting 178. Jedkins01:



Yeah we have plenty of inches to spare, 4.72 from last Thursday-Sunday, and approaching 3 inches tonight right now and a more is on the way, thundering loud here.

Add all that up and so far we've had near 8 inches in the past 8 days, we could maybe get another 1-2 inches overnight, we have inches to spare!


Looks like more is coming, Jeds



Quoting 163. washingtonian115:

Ahhhh for the first time in nearly 3 years I can log on and not see the impending doom El nino will have on Florida.Wow it almost feels like a completely different blog...


The DOOM happened. Didn't you see the fish?
Well I woke up today to a surprise 2 inches of snow on the ground. The weather forecasters were predicting snow showers,but I thought they were going to be regular non-accumlation storms. I guess this is Mother Nature's April Fool's joke right here. At least tomorrow is going to be 60 out so that's good.
Quoting 194. islander101010:

everyday i look for jbs free video clip
And worth every penny!
Snow in Guadeloupe? No, it was an april fool comfirmed by Meteo France yesterday. The meteorologist also said this is something we may never see in Guadeloupe.
The magnolia is sorry looking after wind and rain and now a light dusting of snow. The blossoms are wind-beaten, and petals are on the ground even before the flowers fully developed. Usually it looks much better than this, but always subject to the vagaries of weather.
202. vis0

Quoting 61. Neapolitan:

Addendum to #32: I'm not even going to bother. I clicked on the list of papers offered up as 'skeptical", and chose five at random for a closer look. The first one I picked had been refuted and debunked by subsequent research; the second wasn't skeptical of AGW at all, noting only that solar irradiance plays a part in earth temperatures; the third wasn't skeptical, either, acknowledging the large role anthropogenic CO2 emissions play in atmospheric temperatures; the fourth noted that human factors are exacerbating natural cycles such as the AMO; and the fifth was a bit of since-refuted nonsense written by a religion major/statistician.

Sigh. It's not the IPCC that "needs to start over"; it's whoever compiled that list of "skeptical" papers.
i noticed many more too.

i considered a couple dozen (at least) to be neutral papers or aGW+a papers.

 

Weird thing is if one adds the  aGW reasoning upholders  papers just up to 2012AD versus the 2013 and 2014 so called skeptic($) papers.   ...

 

(not counting skeptics 2016 papers as it takes time to truly peer review papers.  Those doing the reviews have families, other research or scientific job to do, so i cannot even see that all 2015 skeptic papers where fully reviewed yet i let their 2015 slide by, but not the 2016 papers in adding to the skeptic$ total papers.)

 

...  Guess what the percentage of aGW vs. skeptic papers is 97% (13,900) to a bit less than 3% (375).

Again i'm not even counting anything after 2012 as to aGW papers, as in if skeptic$ count the 2016 "roughly" reviewed papers, then i'd have count the roughly reviewed aGw papers from 2013-present and guess what aGW percentage rises, skeptic$ percentage lowers.

 

THE FOLLOWING IS NOT AS TO THE skeptics papers contents but how fast the skeptic$ are pulling out these skeptic papers. Its reminds me of a baby  pulling from a toilet roll dispenser.  Baby represent the skeptic$ whom know not what they post/pull, seem just to do a quick skim and if the paper do not blame aGW they accept it. Also seems like skeptics$ are trying to "tie" the 13,900 aGW reasoning upholders by national convention time so there is something they can jointly "spin" / speak about. A word of advice to skeptics, before you get even half way to 13,900 start to realize you are going to run out of scientists to count so you'll have to explain how you have more skeptic papers than there are scientists on that side when true reporters ask real questions.

What i consider "Neutral" papers are the papers authors that no longer share the opinion they wrote 5-10-20+ yrs ago.  In part 'cause when they wrote those papers there was a "lull" or slowly in the warming (not a cooling) so they took a chance that maybe things will turn around (some maybe took that "lull" as an opportunity to make some money in responding to certain companies that needed scientists to write an opinion leaning away from aGW as an explanation for the then GW and now can finally break that contract with the "devil"...uh, "devil" as in chaotic thinking versus reasonable thinking,  not a guy with a pitchfork surrounded by Kingsford charcoal.) Then came the last few years of record warmth (2013AD-2015AD) being broken not just month after month for the last ~30 years of no cooling trend) but year after year of warming and those reasons plus sun going into a quiet cycle yet Earth warming more-so to no volcanic activities to skew the readings meant that even if those papers were written with good intentions, they where proven incorrect, by the ultimate judge, what really happens.

 

Again there will be more Lulls but that is not cooling. Jo Anne Worley high pitched voice say::  analogy time!!!

 

Your car begins to overheat, you pull over pop the hood

 

(not recommended unless you know how, otherwise you could get a nasty steam burn)

 

...there is so much steam you cannot see your cars hood in the upward position. You wait for a lull in the rising steam after 30 seconds you can see the cars hood, does that "LULL" mean you don't call AAA drop the hood and speed away or is that engine still above the "normal range" thus considered still warm and if you dive away its going to blow.

 

aGW+a i call papers that are saying its not just aGw or aGW might not be the main cause but that there is/are auxiliary (the "+a") reason(s).  If read carefully some of those pages even state that the aux. reason they state cannot explain the entire warming nor even half.  BTW this is where in a few years you'll see most skeptical blogs heading in saying things like aGW is ~30% but natural reasons creates the rest . Followed by all the reason skeptic$ posted over the last decade will be regurgitated and posted as one bunch. Maybe something like:: SKEPTIC$ saying Do you know that animals give off greenhouse gases as the sun cycle becomes active which has happened many times in the full history of earth when there where no weather satellites.

 

Of course even if it where aGW+a since humans are responsible for the aGW portion, humans should make sure whatever is causing the aGW should be lowered and if possible stopped by presenting incentives to scientists to devlope new methods to replace the present greenhouse creating devices / baggage / trappings / things with devices that are healthier to run yet create profits & maintains jobs...REMEMBER skeptic$ if this where done in the 1960s when official first received memos as to GW/aGW you'd be still making money today but without the worry of losing an oil industry job, wondering if the next 1-250 weather extreme is to hit your area, but you assisted in the delay and now you cry that you pay too much when the reason you pay too much was in part created by your delay tactics, be they your real beliefs or that you where just following "company" policy.
188. JRRP7
7:56 AM EDT on April 02, 2016
Slowly but surely coming around..and starting to look dangerous for the Atlantic.....
168. Andrebrooks
12:27 AM EDT on April 02, 2016
Looks like it.We could start the official season off with the C named storm just like we did in 2012 if the storm being modeled comes to pass.

197. Qazulight
9:30 AM EDT on April 02, 2016
I'm talking about in terms of biblical floods and rain totals.
Quoting 203. washingtonian115:

188. JRRP7
7:56 AM EDT on April 02, 2016
Slowly but surely coming around..and starting to look dangerous for the Atlantic.....
168. Andrebrooks
12:27 AM EDT on April 02, 2016
Looks like it.We could start the official season off with the C named storm just like we did in 2012 if the storm being modeled comes to pass.

197. Qazulight
9:30 AM EDT on April 02, 2016
I'm talking about in terms of biblical floods and rain totals.
How about biblical hurricanes this season?
Down here in the Fort Myers area we actually need the rain.

Jan. 12.98"
Feb. 2.05"
Mar. 1.06"

Really not much rain since our big month back in January.

Last Tuesday the squall line came through south Fort Myers around 4:30 pm. Today's squall line looks to be arriving about the same time (definitely a pattern for my area).
359
WFUS52 KTBW 021556
TORTBW
FLC057-101-021630-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0021.160402T1556Z-160402T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
1156 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1156 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAND O' LAKES...OR NEAR LUTZ...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WESLEY CHAPEL SOUTH AROUND 1225 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE WESLEY
CHAPEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Quoting 204. NativeSun:

How about biblical hurricanes this season?
so just what are you looking for sorta speak
Quoting 201. ChiThom:

The magnolia is sorry looking after wind and rain and now a light dusting of snow. The blossoms are wind-beaten, and petals are on the ground even before the flowers fully developed. Usually it looks much better than this, but always subject to the vagaries of weather.

after this weekend and week ahead there shall be much damage to the tender vegetation that has sprung forth early
Quoting 207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

so just what are you looking for sorta speak
Direct hit by another Cat 5, in Miami, and New Orleans, and majors hitting Galveston and the Northeast, making Sandy look like and afternoon thunderstorm. Does that work? Or maybe a major in the Carolina's. For our Caribbean friends, a cat 5 for the Cayman's, Puerto Rico, and all the Leeward, and Windward Islands. That should be a good start, then comes Sept. and Oct.
Wow... Really eye lashes on a Hurricane Hunter airplane?!?! Ridiculous.
april fools
Quoting 211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

april fools

Lol at first I thought it was real. 😀😂 Phew
Quoting 188. JRRP7:


That would set-up the stage for very potent storms this Hurricane Season.
Quoting 168. Andrebrooks:


Bonnie?
12z GFS has it too, hmmm.
I've had a few large branches down this afternoon. 2-3" limbs. Don't know how the winds are here but just to my north we have had reports of 55mph. Fairly windy here...

LINK
Quoting 213. Climate175:

That would set-up the stage for very potent storms this Hurricane Season.
All of the warm waters is north of the MDR.
Quoting 216. Gearsts:

All of the warm waters is north of the MDR.
If your getting calmness in the Caribbean like this, along with very warm waters, you should beware of tropical waves taking advantage of this in the future. The East Coast and Gulf are very primed and ready as well.
Quoting 178. Jedkins01:



Yeah we have plenty of inches to spare, 4.72 from last Thursday-Sunday, and approaching 3 inches tonight right now and a more is on the way, thundering loud here.

Add all that up and so far we've had near 8 inches in the past 8 days, we could maybe get another 1-2 inches overnight, we have inches to spare!


I remember the years when FL panhandle springs were dry.
220. MahFL
A small branch came down here in Orange Park, we also got 2.24 in of rain.

That was fast.
Quoting 221. Gearsts:

That was fast.


The wheels on the (El Nino) bus go falling off...
Quoting 214. Climate175:

12z GFS has it too, hmmm.

It looks like it has a front attached - maybe STS if it can lose baroclinic characteristics.
Quoting 143. PedleyCA:





Forecast for .10" over two days, Take what you can get....



April Showers bring May lawnmowers...

snow has begun

Quoting 219. georgevandenberghe:



I remember the years when FL panhandle springs were dry.



Probably depends on the year with variation but generally speaking the panhandle doesn't have a true dry season like peninsular FL. Tallahassee annual rainfall average.
tropical energy just N.W of Fiji needs to be watched for tropical development.
much of the water in the mdr region is always warm. it just the area north of 20 degrees is warmer than average.
Are Max Factor going to be sponsoring wind speeds?

Quoting 225. Dakster:



April Showers bring May lawnmowers...


Not here, My front yard is rocks and my back yard is supposed to be a garden....lawn mower been in the shed for a long time.
Anyone wanna buy an electric lawnmower???
Off to a rocky start for this years wet season Ped?


If you strain your eyes, you can see raindrops below Thurs-Fri, now down from .1 to .04-.06 or just spitting....
GFS will be upgraded on May 11. Hopefully the upgrade fix the bugs that cause many ghost storms to appear and be on par with ECMWF or even turn to the #1 global model. We will see what occurs.

Notification of GFS upgrade on May 11

Quoting 233. Dakster:

Off to a rocky start for this years wet season Ped?
July 2015    10.26    07/1/15-03/28/16
water year    6.07     10/1/15-03/28/16
this month    1 .36    03/1/16-03/28/16

I find it odd how fronts have been behaving when they pass through Florida these last few years. Usually a front passes and drier and cooler air usually immedietly advances southwards behind it. Pretty much the last two years fronts have been coming in perpendicular to the state, stalling out and bringing rainy, cloudy weather before lifting out with temperatures rarely dipping below >45-50F across the state

Quoting 221. Gearsts:

That was fast.



Scott is no longer commenting? I don't see him anymore...
Quoting 221. Gearsts:

That was fast.


Yes the cold anomalies are definitely now arising to the surface in Nino 4.
Would appreciate comments by the co-founder of Greenpeace stating more CO2 is good for humans and especially crops as population will be about 10 billion in the near future. Website of his concept at: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WDWEjSDYfxc

From my perspective it may be good for earth, but not humans.
Quoting 240. NSB207:

Would appreciate comments by the co-founder of Greenpeace stating more CO2 is good for humans and especially crops as population will be about 10 billion in the near future. Website of his concept at: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WDWEjSDYfxc

From my perspective it may be good for earth, but not humans.

"Patrick Moore often misrepresents himself in the media as an environmental "expert" or even an environmentalist, while offering anti-environmental opinions on a wide range of issues and taking a distinctly anti-environmental stance. He also exploits long-gone ties with Greenpeace to sell himself as a speaker and pro-corporate spokesperson, usually taking positions that Greenpeace opposes.

While it is true that Patrick Moore was a member of Greenpeace in the 1970s, in 1986 he abruptly turned his back on the very issues he once passionately defended. He claims he "saw the light" but what Moore really saw was an opportunity for financial gain. Since then he has gone from defender of the planet to a paid representative of corporate polluters.

Patrick Moore promotes such anti-environmental positions as clearcut logging, nuclear power, farmed salmon, PVC (vinyl) production, genetically engineered crops, and mining. Clients for his consulting services are a veritable Who's Who of companies that Greenpeace has exposed for environmental misdeeds, including Monsanto, Weyerhaeuser, and BHP Minerals.

Moore's claims run from the exaggerated to the outrageous to the downright false, including that "clear-cutting is good for forests" and Three Mile Island was actually "a success story"because the radiation from the partially melted core was contained. That is akin to saying "my car crash was a success because I only cracked my skull and didn't die."

By exploiting his former ties to Greenpeace, Moore portrays himself as a prodigal son who has seen the error of his ways. Unfortunately, the media ( especially conservative media ) give him a platform for his views, and often do so without mentioning the fact that he is a paid spokesperson for polluting companies.

The following provides a brief overview of Patrick Moore's positions and his history of working for corporate polluters." Link

As for the CO2 is good argument itself, see here: Link
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 32m32 minutes ago
Our severe wx expert: wind could “hit like a fist before midnight.” Gusts 55-65 mph poss.

Looks like Scott is fading away with the el nino.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Binghamton, NY

3:08pm EDT, Sat Apr 2

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS... CENTRAL NEW YORK'S SOUTHERN TIER... FINGER LAKES REGION... OTSEGO... DELAWARE COUNTIES AND BRADFORD... SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES... SNOW... BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES... AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING... SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 7 PM. THE SNOW MAY START AS RAIN... ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND NOON.

* IMPACTS... SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS.

* WINDS... NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH SUNDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES... FALLING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 20S.
Man the winds are really howling outside here! Bunch of branches flying around in my front yard. Hope our dead ash trees survive the wind!
Subtropical depression?
Quoting 246. HurricaneFan:

Subtropical depression?


Hmm, navgem shows something similar, as well as the GFS ensembles. ECMWF has lower pressures in the area. Could be something to watch though, as it has been moving up in the timeline. Will do definitely be interesting as to what TSR says in their seasonal prediction, this Tuesday.
Quoting 247. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Hmm, navgem shows something similar, as well as the GFS ensembles. ECMWF has lower pressures in the area. Could be something to watch though, as it has been moving up in the timeline. Will do definitely be interesting as to what TSR says in their seasonal prediction, this Tuesday.

They will most likely not change their prediction much. Most agencies will likely predict a near-average season this year due to the extreme uncertainty. Nonetheless, 2016 isn't a "slam dunk" to be an inactive season, like last year was (by this time last year it was mostly agreed that 2015 would be an inactive season).
Quoting 245. Cyclone2016:

Man the winds are really howling outside here! Bunch of branches flying around in my front yard. Hope our dead ash trees survive the wind!
You should take down your dead trees before a storm does it for you.
Quoting 238. CaribBoy:



Scott is no longer commenting? I don't see him anymore...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quoting 249. BaltimoreBrian:

You should take down your dead trees before a storm does it for you.
Isabel took care of ours...Its a good thing the room that we eventually turned into a spare bedroom had no one back there.It took part of the roof off and resulted in another tree collapsing.


These are before and after pics of a pool.St Bernard from hurricane Katrina.
254. vis0

Quoting 142. AldreteMichael:

Category 5 makeup -- For when you want to destroy the competition.
Category 1 makeup -- For when you want to show your power, but not so much as to scare all the guys away
Tropical storm makeup -- Seriously, why buy this one?
You need a liquid version too.

as

TS with 10+'' potential -- For when you want to permanently quiet the competition.
TS with 6''-9'' potential -- For when you want to show your power, but leave a few tp spread the word of the dangers of floods (number weather related killer)
 

TS with 3''-6''' potential -- For when you want to show your power by turning vehicles into toys yet not only seriously injure some that dare challenge the power of water

The many "aminals" we see in the clouds --- ahhhhhhhhh
Quoting 240. NSB207:

Would appreciate comments by the co-founder of Greenpeace stating more CO2 is good for humans and especially crops as population will be about 10 billion in the near future. Website of his concept at: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WDWEjSDYfxc

From my perspective it may be good for earth, but not humans.
10 billion people will not be good for anything.
Quoting 250. TropicalAnalystwx13:


¯\_(ツ)_/¯


What are you saying? This Nino is toast, and we will have a very interesting hurricane season.
Quoting 256. NativeSun:

What are you saying? This Nino is toast, and we will have a very interesting hurricane season.

Interesting one for sure.
Quoting 251. Climate175:



Pretty warm MDR as well.
This Nino is into the 1.3 range now and should continue to weaken. It's not strong anymore, it's a moderate Nino, and in a few weeks it will be a weak Nino.
I posted 1916 Dept. of Agriculture average first and last killing frost maps a couple days ago. These are much larger and zoomable.



Quoting 253. washingtonian115:



These are before and after pics of a pool.St Bernard from hurricane Katrina.

Photoshopped

Easy to spot
Its quiet again.....


So Washington Dulles International Airport recorded a 66 mph wind gust at 10:25pm from the fast moving cold front in the mid atlantic right now.

A bright green/blue power flash startled me while I was outside lol.
Looks like I'm gonna get some action soon

Lower Bucks NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Issued: 11:09 PM EDT Apr. 2, 2016 – National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
northwestern Camden County in southern New Jersey...
northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
northwestern Mercer County in central New Jersey...
northwestern Salem County in southern New Jersey...
northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
southeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
southeastern Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* until midnight EDT

* at 1108 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated a line of severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60
mph. These storms were located along a line extending from near
Marshallton to near Glasgow... and moving northeast at 60 to 70
mph. Half inch diameter hail may also accompany the damaging winds.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
West Chester... Westtown... Gradyville... Cheyney and Lima around 1115
PM EDT.
Carneys Point... Penns Grove... Paoli... Newtown Square... Trout Lake...
Broomall and Talleyville around 1120 PM EDT.
Norristown... West Norriton... East Norriton... Conshohocken... Narberth...
Arden... King of Prussia... Radnor township... Bryn Mawr and Chelsea
around 1125 PM EDT.
Chester... Ambler... Swarthmore... Swedesboro... Plymouth Meeting...
Gibbstown... Beckett... Philadelphia international Arpt... Chestnut Hill
and Chester Township around 1130 PM EDT.
Deptford... West Deptford... Yeadon... Folcroft... Paulsboro... Jenkintown...
Woodbury Heights... National Park... East Lansdowne and Rockledge
around 1135 PM EDT.
Philadelphia... Gloucester City... Bellmawr... Woodbury... Hatboro...
Westville... Brooklawn... Bryn Athyn... Ivyland and Audubon Park around
1140 PM EDT.
Camden... Cherry Hill... Voorhees... Lindenwold... Magnolia... Newtown...
Langhorne... Richboro... Erlton-Ellisburg and Ashland around 1145 PM
EDT.
Evesham... Mount Laurel... Riverside... Palmyra... Yardley... Ramblewood...
Washington Crossing... Washington Crossing... Greentree and Woodside
around 1150 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Oreland... Marcus Hook... Lawnside... Barrington... Woodlyn... Boothwyn...
Trainer... Springfield... West Conshohocken and Edgewater Park.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds... large hail... deadly
lightning and very heavy rain. For your protection... move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. Heavy
rains flood roads quickly so do not drive into areas where water
covers the Road.

In addition to large hail and damaging winds... frequent cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors
immediately. Remember... if you can hear thunder... you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.


Lat... Lon 3997 7567 4037 7480 3987 7487 3968 7551
3971 7549 3972 7551 3967 7555 3961 7574
time... Mot... loc 0308z 240deg 59kt 3995 7564 3963 7572


Drag


Hey bob or Jeff. Or admin. The ignore. List is broken. I this tryed re moving two names but the named just stay there. Other words whe I go back too see if the. Names are gone. They are still there. So the ignore list is broken too where you re move a name it won't update too show the names have been re move


Not sure why am wasting my time typing this has a what of time none of you admins respond too my commits so it feels like I am ignored when some in breaks down on your site or some in not working
Quoting 261. nymore:


Photoshopped

Easy to spot

Yeah, I can tell by the pixels.
Quoting 264. Tazmanian:

Hey bob or Jeff. Or admin. The ignore. List is broken. I this tryed re moving two names but the named just stay there. Other words whe I go back too see if the. Names are gone. They are still there. So the ignore list is broken too where you re move a name it won't update too show the names have been re move


Not sure why am wasting my time typing this has a what of time none of you admins respond too my commits so it feels like I am ignored when some in breaks down on your site or some in not working


So would you like me to "quote" someone so you can see their comments? LOL
267. vis0
i know i pressed submit while MODIFYING IT not reposing it.
ah let me go to my blog at lest THERE i know what to Xpect
ImgLand.net image

i think i figure out the problem CFS got chocolate in WxU's peanut butter and WxU got peanut butter in CFS's chocolate...remember both were upgraded at the same time i think CFS has WxUs servers and CFS has WxUs servers that is why WxU goes out when a big LOW is to form near the SE, its really the CFS in overdrive trying to draw up a Higher Def  image.

BIG LIGHTNING just hit a block away zip10016 (though i saw the flash in through my eastern window - ESE) began raining light then a light-moderate train10 minutes ago, lite ice or mini hail 2 minute ago for ~20 seconds then lightning at ~10110secs EDT.

2nd lightning much further ESE seems to be heading towards Queens Brooklyn divide


Update for y'all. We did not lose power and no trees fell down miraculously! Winds were gusting to at least 60 mph here! I hope my parents consider calling the tree removal place. However some in my area were not so lucky, 50,000 customers in the Cincinnati area still have no power. This has to be the worst wind even I have seen since the Hurricane Ike Windstorm and Blackout in 2008.
MDR should warm up.
270. vis0
If wunderkidcaymen is awake look to your west, not pulling alarm just interesting.
ImgLand.net image

 
Then towards 50west the rising and spreading in all directions clouds look like when one stretches their arms after just waking you and getting ready to go to work. Quick HHunters get your smudge proof at 800pHa eyeliner on.
Quoting 261. nymore:


Photoshopped

Easy to spot


Even though it may be photo shopped it will not be far from the truth of what really happened and probably a lot worse?
Good morning.

After the CFSv2 fix of March 29,things have been adjusting slowly in the ENSO forecast and now no longer it shows el Nino coming back after dipping to cold Neutral.Now it stays in Neutral all the way thru the end of 2016 but more adjustments will occur.



Quoting 273. hydrus:




The Tigers host the Yankees from the seventh through the ninth, I doubt the pitchers will like this much.

Strangely quiet this morning, not the usual cacophony of songbirds that have greeted the dawn for the last few weeks.
Weather has killed 28 people so far in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan.



There also was a 7.3 earthquake in Vanuatu about 3 hours ago. No large destructive tsunamis was expected.
Quoting 275. Skyepony:

Weather has killed 28 people so far in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan.



There also was a 7.3 earthquake in Vanuatu about 3 hours ago. No large destructive tsunamis was expected.
Good morning Skye..I believe that our seasons will be changing soon. Shorter, but more severe winters, longer summers, and faster spring/fall transitions. Monsoon patterns will change also, falling short, or lagging behind typical annual events. I am awed by the speed of the changes.
Good morning Thunderbloggers! Today is the 2nd anniversary of the "April Fools" tornado outbreak of April 3rd, 2014. Here is what the outlook was at 13z.






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AR...NRN LA...NWRN
MS...SRN/ERN MO...WRN TN...SRN IL...WRN KY...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM LOWER MO/OH
VALLEY REGIONS TO E TX...TN VALLEY AND PARTS OF MS DELTA REGION...

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND
A FEW STG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MDT-RISK AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER-AIR FEATURE INFLUENCING THIS OUTLOOK IS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. NRN AND MIDDLE SEGMENTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL
ASSUME MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME...AS TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.
EMBEDDED 500-MB LOW SHOULD FORM OVER SERN NEB OR OMA AREA BETWEEN
00-06Z. BY 00Z...TROUGH SHOULD ARC FROM SRN NEB OVER CENTRAL
KS...TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM. BY 12Z...EXPECT COMPACT 500-MB
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NERN IA...WITH MAIN VORTICITY LOBE SEWD OVER
WRN IL THEN SWWD ACROSS SRN MO. SUBTLE VORTICITY LOBE IS EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NW TX INTO SRN
OK.

ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER SERN KS -- IS FCST TO
DEEPEN AND MOVE TO N-CENTRAL/NERN MO BY 00Z...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD
ACROSS SWRN MO....NERN/CENTRAL OK...AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. BY
THEN...CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND EWD OR ESEWD
FROM LOW ACROSS S-CENTRAL IL. BY 12Z...SFC LOW SHOULD BECOME
OCCLUDED OVER SRN WI...WHILE COLD FRONT CROSSES PORTIONS
INDIANA...WRN TN...NWRN MS...AND UPPER TX COAST. DRYLINE WAS DRAWN
AT 11Z OVER EXTREME SWRN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX...AND SHOULD MIX/ADVECT
EWD TO ERN OK AND N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX BY 00Z.

...NEAR-TERM CONCERNS...
INITIAL MCS OVER SRN IL AND ERN MO MAY POSE SHORT-TERM RISK OF
DAMAGING GUSTS...AND ANOTHER BRIEF/SMALL QLCS-TYPE TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS LEADING EDGE ROLLS DOWN VORTICITY-ENHANCED WARM FRONT.
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 255 FOR DETAILS. COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E ALONG WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH AT LEAST MRGL
WIND-DAMAGE RISK.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER SW...OVER PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL TX. ACTIVITY INITIALLY APPEARED ROOTED IN LAYER OF
ELEVATED INFLOW BELOW VERY STEEP EML-SUPPLIED/DCVA-ENHANCED LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OFFER RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 256 FOR MORE
DETAILS. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WEAKER-CINH REGIME DESCRIBED
BELOW...IT MAY ERODE CAPPING FROM ABOVE WHILE FOREGOING/INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS HEATS DIABATICALLY.

...MIDWEST TO NRN/ERN TX AND MS DELTA REGIONS...AFTN ONWARD...
MAIN EVENT SHOULD OCCUR IN TWO PHASES THAT MAY OVERLAP SPATIALLY--
1. THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT INVOF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBO...OVER
WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA...PERHAPS BACKBUILDING SWD THROUGH
MID-SOUTH REGION AND AR...
2. SEPARATE BAND OF TSTMS FIRING ON CONFLUENCE AXIS E OF EML-CINH
REGIME...OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF MID-SOUTH AREA SWWD TOWARD WRN GULF
COAST...SHIFTING EWD OVER DELTA REGION INTO MS.

OUTFLOW/COLD-POOL BOUNDARY FROM MO/IL MCS WILL REINFORCE EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT ACROSS MO...WHICH MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD OVER LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS NRN BOUND FOR MORE ROBUST SVR THREAT TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN. TIMING/LOCATION OF MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH 12Z RAOBS
OFFER SOME IMPORTANT CLUES. CAPPING WAS VERY STG AT FWD...STG AT
SHV...WEAKER AT OUN...ALMOST NONEXISTENT AT LZK...WITH WEAK STABLE
LAYER EVIDENT AT SGF. AS SUCH...SGF MAY HAVE FORTUITOUSLY SAMPLED
ERN EDGE OF STRONGEST SBCINH THAT SHOULD EXTEND SSWWD ACROSS ERN OK
THEN SEWD OVER ARKLATEX. SUBSTANTIAL DCVA/COOLING ALOFT MAY NEVER
GET SUBSTANTIALLY PAST SFC COLD FRONT...INDICATING ONLY WEAK
ADJUSTMENTS IN EML CONFIGURATION PRIOR TO FROPA.

DRYLINE AND LATER FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD INTENSIFY AS BOUNDARIES
IMPINGE ON FAVORABLY MOIST AND HEATED AIR MASS THIS AFTN. THIS
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD CROSS OZARKS REGION IN REGIME OF
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...EVEN AFTER SOME VEERING OF SFC WINDS
OCCURS THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS INITIALLY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
EVENTUAL COALESCENCE AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO QUASI-LINEAR TSTM
REGIME WITH BOWS/LEWPS. AS THAT OCCURS...DOMINANT HAIL THREAT WILL
TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND...WITH TORNADOES OF BOTH SUPERCELLULAR
AND QLCS ORIGIN POSSIBLE.

FARTHER S...E OF EML-RELATED CAPPING CONCERNS...PROGS REASONABLY
SUGGEST NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT
ZONE IN BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NRN LA ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN AR/NWRN MS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS IN REGIME OF RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL...AND FAVORABLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS.
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISKS ARE APPARENT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD
OVER SRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA.

A fine day this was...I was home because I was sick, but had I gone to school that day, I would have spent 3 hours watching movies
Good morning and afternoon, all. It's going to be a beautiful Spring day in west central Louisiana. People here continue to work on cleaning up after the flooding. Some areas are still under flood warnings.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Chipotle Chilaquiles, Loaded breakfast potoato skinns, Avocado Toast with Chile Flakes and Crushed Pistachios, cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, cinnamon monkey bread, sausage balls, strawberry crepes, baked oatmeal, thick slices of honey ham with home fries, corned beef hash with cheese topped with two fried eggs, cheesy grits with shrimp, Danishes, fresh fruit, Juice, Tea, coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
My egg and cheese breakfast sandwich seems pathetic now.
Quoting 261. nymore:


Photoshopped

Easy to spot
Umm...what?
Quoting 279. SunnyDaysFla:

My egg and cheese breakfast sandwich seems pathetic now.


But my Reese's Peanut Butter Cups are good.
really digging this weather and its suppose to hang around e cen florida
Quoting 235. Tropicsweatherpr:

GFS will be upgraded on May 11. Hopefully the upgrade fix the bugs that cause many ghost storms to appear and be on par with ECMWF or even turn to the #1 global model. We will see what occurs.

Notification of GFS upgrade on May 11


Comments from NHC and TAFB (Page 31)

• GFSP has mostly improved TC track and intensity forecasts in comparison
to current GFS.
• GFSP in general handles gap wind events a little better than the current
GFS, especially at longer time ranges.
• In comparison to the current GFS, the GFSP has a higher POD for TC
genesis in both basins and a lower FAR in the Atlantic, but a higher FAR in
the east Pacific – so overall the new GFS is better at predicting genesis.
• Based on limited cases with archived operational GFS on 1° grids and the
retrospectives (GFSP) on 0.5° degree grids
• Results were a mixed bag, but the GFSP seemed to have an advantage at
longer lead times
• Since the impact of the GFSP on the HWRF and GFDL hurricane models
remains unknown, NHC cannot endorse this implementation. However, NHC
does not oppose it.
Quoting 278. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. It's going to be a beautiful Spring day in west central Louisiana. People here continue to work on cleaning up after the flooding. Some areas are still under flood warnings.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Chipotle Chilaquiles, Loaded breakfast potoato skinns, Avocado Toast with Chile Flakes and Crushed Pistachios, cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, cinnamon monkey bread, sausage balls, strawberry crepes, baked oatmeal, thick slices of honey ham with home fries, corned beef hash with cheese topped with two fried eggs, cheesy grits with shrimp, Danishes, fresh fruit, Juice, Tea, coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Howdy Linn...Do you really get to have that type of breakfast every morning.?...Good way to start a day..:)
Quoting 283. nrtiwlnvragn:



Comments from NHC and TAFB (Page 31)

• GFSP has mostly improved TC track and intensity forecasts in comparison
to current GFS.
• GFSP in general handles gap wind events a little better than the current
GFS, especially at longer time ranges.
• In comparison to the current GFS, the GFSP has a higher POD for TC
genesis in both basins and a lower FAR in the Atlantic, but a higher FAR in
the east Pacific – so overall the new GFS is better at predicting genesis.
• Based on limited cases with archived operational GFS on 1° grids and the
retrospectives (GFSP) on 0.5° degree grids
• Results were a mixed bag, but the GFSP seemed to have an advantage at
longer lead times
• Since the impact of the GFSP on the HWRF and GFDL hurricane models
remains unknown, NHC cannot endorse this implementation. However, NHC
does not oppose it.



Interesting comments mainly favoring the Paralell version upgrade. Now let's see what grades the operational gets after it upgrades.
I was just looking at the 'almanac' here on WU, and noticed that the long term temp averages (average/high/low] are averages of the values from since 1999.

Given that the period between '99 and now cannot be regarded as typical ... that is... given that the bell curves of all average values are presumably steadily progressing into warmer areas, it seems like that policy is somewhat misrepresentative: The whole of the twentieth century is summarily disregarded.

I wonder what the thinking was behind that choice.
Hello wunderground , today is truly a great Sunday for me. It's my 15th birthday!!! I would just like to thank each and every one of you for such valuable weather information. I look forward to learning even more things in the future from you'll. Thanks for helping me achieve my dreams. Have a great day!!!
Just finished calculating & extending the AMO/THC (Thermohaline Circulation) index back to 1870 using Klotzbach & Gray's (2008) methodology. It's worth noting that according to this index, values below -2 (as we observed last year) have only occurred in -AMO regimes, hence the ongoing -AMO stint seems very legitimate & appears to be a viable harbinger of a significant multidecadal regime shift...

Quoting 282. islander101010:

really digging this weather and its suppose to hang around e cen florida


Yeah, weather is perfect today (not hot, not cold, low humidity) across S.W. Florida. We're expecting a really nice week of weather this week.
Quoting 288. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hello wunderground , today is truly a great Sunday for me. It's my 15th birthday!!! I would just like to thank each and every one of you for such valuable weather information. I look forward to learning even more things in the future from you'll. Thanks for helping me achieve my dreams. Have a great day!!!


On behalf of all the lurkers in particular, Happy Birthday Tigger. May you continue to learn and grow each and every day of your life.
Quoting 272. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

After the CFSv2 fix of March 29,things have been adjusting slowly in the ENSO forecast and now no longer it shows el Nino coming back after dipping to cold Neutral.Now it stays in Neutral all the way thru the end of 2016 but more adjustments will occur.






however if you look at the runs in blue...which are the latest runs........this model is showing a strong la nina
Looks like another perfect day here in Acme, wa. Forcast high of 68° with a few clouds. Raked and tilled the upper sandier third of the garden yesterday feels like I spent a couple hours wrestling with a bear today. Breakfeast will probably include a couple of ibuprophen with my coffee.
Quoting 292. ricderr:



however if you look at the runs in blue...which are the latest runs........this model is showing a strong la nina


That is why I said "More adjustments will occur." Eventually the dash line will follow the latest forecasts.
Quoting 293. plantmoretrees:

Looks like another perfect day here in Acme, wa. Forcast high of 68° with a few clouds. Raked and tilled the upper sandier third of the garden yesterday feels like I spent a couple hours wrestling with a bear today. Breakfeast will probably include a couple of ibuprophen with my coffee.

It's only 47° here now, but an expected high of 67° leads me to believe that I'll also be raking and tilling (and adding compost to) my clay soil today. :)
I've been MIA from the blog the last two weeks or so due to a combination of moving and non cooperative fingers. Also, I caught a severe case of the "sun flu." It's a common illness here in the PNW during the first few amazing days of the year. Spent some quality time hiking as well as at the beach. However, despite our fabulous weather the last week, we still managed our wettest fall/winter on record.

After spending the last week soaking up some Vitamin D, the previous six months seem like a distant memory...
Quoting 291. Seattleite:



On behalf of all the lurkers in particular, Happy Birthday Tigger. May you continue to learn and grow each and every day of your life.

Thanks a lot!!!
I am going to propose that we organize and get a date and Venue for a wundergound bloggers meeting sometime this Summer.

I'd like to schedule it in August somewhere along the Gulf Coast. If interested in being on the panel for this meeting, just wu mail me here.


Dr. Jeff Masters giving His presentation June 1,2013 at the Portlight Getting it right Conference, Shepherd Center, Atlanta.

Patrick


And a Happy Birthday to wu member tiggerhurricanes2001.





I guess early Spring is payback time for all the warm weather the East Coast enjoyed during the Winter.
ECMWF is in agreement that next weekend will be a chilly one across the eastern U.S.
I guess we should also take note of the abnormally warm temperatures across the western U.S. and Canada.


Quoting 276. hydrus:

Good morning Skye..I believe that our seasons will be changing soon. Shorter, but more severe winters, longer summers, and faster spring/fall transitions. Monsoon patterns will change also, falling short, or lagging behind typical annual events. I am awed by the speed of the changes.
faster and faster hydrus faster and faster
12:57 PM EDT Sunday 03 April 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snowfall on the way.

Light snow is expected to develop late this afternoon and intensify early this evening. 5 to 10 cm is expected to fall before the snow tapers of early Monday morning.

Winter driving conditions are expected this evening and overnight. The bulk of the snow will be over by the Monday morning commute. however some roads will remain snow covered and slippery.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
69.3 F currently, Gaw jus .

Taking the Shepherds for Rabies annual as the Parish here does it every spring this Sunday for $15 each.

306. JRRP7
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
Significant upwelling occurring in the far eastern Pacific
if we get 10 cm of snow predicted for this evening in Toronto it will be more snow in total in april than we had in the month of dec at the start of winter

and yet even more snow possible by mid week again as a battle breaks out between the season around lower grt lakes southward
Quoting 305. Patrap:

69.3 F currently, Gaw jus .

Taking the Shepherds for Rabies annual as the Parish here does it every spring this Sunday for $15 each.


25.7 as per the pws on the roof here chills feel like 20f or colder at times
Happy Birthday Tigger.

Well, anyway, El Nino continues its rapid collapse, and the latest value is +1.309 for the Nino 3.4 region. I don't see any way possible that El Nino will remain this year. La Nina is coming, most likely a moderate one.

well I go for the prep walk I guess
have too put out the snow board see what we get
did not expect too put that out till end of nov

o well what can we do cant fight mother nature she wins always
Quoting 299. Patrap:

And a Happy Birthday to wu member tiggerhurricanes2001.







Thanks Patrap.
Quoting 309. HurricaneFan:

Happy Birthday Tigger.

Well, anyway, El Nino continues its rapid collapse, and the latest value is +1.309 for the Nino 3.4 region. I don't see any way possible that El Nino will remain this year. La Nina is coming, most likely a moderate one.



Thanks.
Quoting 303. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Some very good friends of mine are seasonal residents here in Fort Myers (they live across the street from me). They are going back up to central Michigan later this week. I think they are in for a rude awakening because Winter doesn't want to give up quite yet across that region.
Happy birthday Malik. You have a blessed and wonderful day bro. God bless you.
Models are now projecting a wet MDR and Africa for Aug/Sep....I smell trouble...If my prediction for a 15 name season bust oh well but at this time I don't see why we couldn't see at least a slightly above average hurricane season.

For some odd reason the post are in italics now.


The Forecast for Rain that was falling apart yesterday seems to be invigorated today. Now it is around 1" over 4 days.
Thurs-Sun 65% chance...
Quoting 288. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hello wunderground , today is truly a great Sunday for me. It's my 15th birthday!!! I would just like to thank each and every one of you for such valuable weather information. I look forward to learning even more things in the future from you'll. Thanks for helping me achieve my dreams. Have a great day!!!


Happy Birthday!

Today is also a good day for me.

It's the 2nd anniversary of the "April Fools" Tornado Outbreak of April 3rd 2014!

This is what the 1630z outlook looked like.






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN MO...MOST OF AR...NERN LA...NWRN MS...WRN
PARTS OF TN/KY...SRN IL...AND FAR SWRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES
WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
MS VALLEY BY 04/12Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OF 70-90 KT AND A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150
M / 12 HR.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN KS WILL DEVELOP TO
N-CNTRL MO/S-CNTRL IA BY 04/00Z PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER SRN WI BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND MORE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE MOVEMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY WILL BE MODULATED BY AN ONGOING MCS OVER THE REGION.
FINALLY...A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX WILL MIX
EWD TODAY...PROGRESSIVELY BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW.

--POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND LOWER OH
VALLEY.--

...LOWER MO AND OH VALLEYS SWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR
EXHIBITED A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS
OF AROUND 13 G PER KG/ SURMOUNTED BY AN EML WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM. WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME
HEATING CAN OCCUR...THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500-3000+ J/KG.

AS OF 16Z...A COUPLE OF SEPARATE CONVECTIVE REGIMES WERE ONGOING: 1)
AN MCS WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED TSTM
CLUSTERS OCCURRING ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO E-CNTRL
IL... AND 2) OPEN WARM SECTOR STORMS FROM SWRN/S-CNTRL MO SWWD INTO
SERN OK. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH THE FORMER ACTIVITY AS IT PERSISTS OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE LATTER REGIME WILL REMAIN COLOCATED WITH A MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS
IT CONTINUES NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF SRN MO AND AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER WRN MO SWD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT INTO ERN OK...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DRYLINE
INTO ERN TX AS DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHAT
IMPACT THE INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE ON THIS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT.
BUT IN GENERAL...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES /SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG THE EWD/SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
OVERNIGHT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

A good day that was.
Quoting 314. washingtonian115:

Models are now projecting a wet MDR and Africa for Aug/Sep....I smell trouble...If my prediction for a 15 name season bust oh well but at this time I don't see why we couldn't see at least a slightly above average hurricane season.

For some odd reason the post are in italics now.


I'd take any seasonal forecast in the coming weeks with a huge grain of salt plenty of conflicting signals could go either way if you asked me.
Quoting 301. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster hydrus faster and faster
It sure seems that way, the older you get, everything thing seems to move faster and faster, especially time.
test 1
test 2
Absolutely blasted in Mid Atlantic region last night...squall line that came through around midnight was insane. Numerous reports of wind gust over 70 mph which does some serious damage around here. Mobile homes toppled, trucks blown off the road, trees into houses of course. Friend's church burned down sparked by trees/wires down. Lighthouse in the middle of Delaware Bay recorded a wind gust of 74 mph, and I've seen a handful of places where the ground was completely covered in hail.
test 3
Quoting 321. wxgeek723:

Absolutely blasted in Mid Atlantic region last night...squall line that came through around midnight was insane. Numerous reports of wind gust over 70 mph which does some serious damage around here. Mobile homes toppled, trucks blown off the road, trees into houses of course. Friend's church burned down sparked by trees/wires down. Lighthouse in the middle of Delaware Bay recorded a wind gust of 74 mph, and I've seen a handful of places where the ground was completely covered in hail.
it was a howling night here as well winds were gusting too 70 kmh at times till just before dawn this am
324. vis0
Quoting 311. tiggerhurricanes2001:

we've been italicized...mama mia...too soon?


tried to post one error , did not show up in the rich text/visible cmmnts. forgot its WxU one cannot incl code to present code so here is a cap., see the em forward slashed in reverse...

Quoting 317. hurricane23:



I'd take any seasonal forecast in the coming weeks with a huge grain of salt plenty of conflicting signals could go either way if you asked me.
I'm thinking that as well.Either this season cold be really dangerous or it could be dull/average.

Quoting 324. vis0:

we've been italicized...mama mia...too soon?
Just noticed that, I don't want to be Italicized. Another of their Improvements(sic), just keeps getting better. /sarc
Quoting 320. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

test 2


Roger reading you five by five, Flight.
Quoting 326. PedleyCA:


Just noticed that, I don't want to be Italicized. Another of their Improvements(sic), just keeps getting better. /sarc


italics is only the beginning!
Quoting 327. CybrTeddy:



Roger reading you five by five, Flight.

QSL
any QRM
At this rate we will be neutral by May...

Quoting 316. 62901IL:



Happy Birthday!

Today is also a good day for me.

It's the 2nd anniversary of the "April Fools" Tornado Outbreak of April 3rd 2014!

This is what the 1630z outlook looked like.






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN MO...MOST OF AR...NERN LA...NWRN MS...WRN
PARTS OF TN/KY...SRN IL...AND FAR SWRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES
WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
MS VALLEY BY 04/12Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OF 70-90 KT AND A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150
M / 12 HR.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN KS WILL DEVELOP TO
N-CNTRL MO/S-CNTRL IA BY 04/00Z PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER SRN WI BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND MORE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE MOVEMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY WILL BE MODULATED BY AN ONGOING MCS OVER THE REGION.
FINALLY...A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX WILL MIX
EWD TODAY...PROGRESSIVELY BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW.

--POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND LOWER OH
VALLEY.--

...LOWER MO AND OH VALLEYS SWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR
EXHIBITED A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS
OF AROUND 13 G PER KG/ SURMOUNTED BY AN EML WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM. WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME
HEATING CAN OCCUR...THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500-3000+ J/KG.

AS OF 16Z...A COUPLE OF SEPARATE CONVECTIVE REGIMES WERE ONGOING: 1)
AN MCS WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED TSTM
CLUSTERS OCCURRING ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO E-CNTRL
IL... AND 2) OPEN WARM SECTOR STORMS FROM SWRN/S-CNTRL MO SWWD INTO
SERN OK. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH THE FORMER ACTIVITY AS IT PERSISTS OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE LATTER REGIME WILL REMAIN COLOCATED WITH A MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS
IT CONTINUES NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF SRN MO AND AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER WRN MO SWD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT INTO ERN OK...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DRYLINE
INTO ERN TX AS DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHAT
IMPACT THE INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE ON THIS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT.
BUT IN GENERAL...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES /SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG THE EWD/SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
OVERNIGHT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

A good day that was.

Thanks soo much!!!

Wet Africa and MDR
Winter is definitely not leaving New England. The snow total forecasts are high (for April)
Good evening hello from Germany where we've experienced a warm and tranquil weekend - but with some contributions from Sahara:



German weather site got some photos of "bloodsnow" in the Alps (reddish snow due to the dust from the Sahara).

No big deal though. Elsewhere weather is more serious by far. Here an update on the situation in Pakistan:

At least 36 killed in Pakistan as heavy rain causes roofs to collapse
Authorities say 27 people injured after downpour sets off landslides and flash floods in Kyber Pakhtunkhwa province
The Guardian/Agence France-Presse, Sunday 3 April 2016 17.32 BST

Meanwhile in India:

Heat Wave to Last for Three Months from April-June, Informs IMD
April 3rd, 2016
The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a notification stating that this year the North and the Central Indian states will face an extreme heat wave condition all through the Summer months of April-June. The notification further states that the mean temperature of the summer will increase by at least 1 degree Celsius compared to the last year.
The North and the Central India remains hotter than the other parts of the country. Added to this heat wave the changing weather condition is leading to a consistent drought situation which will pose a question for the agricultural production of the country. ....

More see link above.
UPDATED
4:11 PM EDT Sunday 03 April 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snowfall on the way.

Snow is developing over the regions this afternoon. Near 10 cm is expected to fall before the snow tapers off early Monday morning.

Winter driving conditions are expected from early this evening through tonight. The bulk of the snow will be over by the Monday morning commute. However, some roads will remain snow covered and slippery.

The snow is being caused by an Alberta clipper passing to the south of the regions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
SNOW HAS BEGUN

Quoting 341. islander101010:

very heavy rain ass/ with a trough over Fiji. troughs can be as dangerous

Indeed, "huge problems" developing for folks down there, with one or even two tropical cyclones in the making, according to BBC:
Fiji and Vanuatu bracing for storms

Quoting 342. barbamz:


Indeed, "huge problems" developing for folks down there, with one or even two tropical cyclones in the making, according to BBC:
Fiji and Vanuatu bracing for storms



Are those storms creating a westerly wind burst?
Quoting 269. Gearsts:

MDR should warm up.


Is that hot spot over Greenland for real?
Quoting 340. Gearsts:


There's one that shows a wet mdr.
Quoting 344. BayFog:


Is that hot spot over Greenland for real?

Looks like it is. Go here and click "Animation" to get the loop of worldwide anomalies in the next days according to GFS.


Here a different display one week out (but it already started this way today).

Cannot answer your previous question about imminent WWB's in the WPac though. Others got more knowledge to do so, I'm sure :-)
Have a good night and a pleasant start into the new week, everybody!

SST COMPARE APRIL 3 15/16


Quoting 347. barbamz:


Looks like it is.


yeah its real

Quoting 349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like the north pole has relocated over western north central Quebec/Ontario or the cold pole air at least anyway
Quoting 348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

SST COMPARE APRIL 3 15/16





That patch of red off Florida/The Bahamas is downright jaw-dropping to say the least. The Gulf Stream could be a hotbed for rapid intensification should this trend hold up. Not good.
348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:36 PM EDT on April 03, 2016
Looks like mid June down in the caribbean,Bahamas and extending back towards Africa.
A bit warmer than forecast here in the Orlando area today. Cold fronts can only do so much here in April, though I remember days with highs in the 60s and lows in the low 40s in early April. This is not one of those cold fronts!
Gotta love Wisconsin in the spring. Friday 50 and rain. Yesterday 36 and snow/hail showers. Today 70 and sunny. Tomorrow 36 and sunny. I think Mother nature is pulling an April fools joke right now and it sucks.
Quoting 350. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like the north pole has relocated over western north central Quebec/Ontario or the cold pole air at least anyway


Word.

Looking at the forecast for the whole northern hemisphere over the next few days it looks like Eastern Canada and Northeast U.S. consistently have the coldest anomalies anywhere.

and....

and......




Quoting 351. hurricaneben:



That patch of red off Florida/The Bahamas is downright jaw-dropping to say the least. The Gulf Stream could be a hotbed for rapid intensification should this trend hold up. Not good.


Well, keep in mind that the Bahamas are always boiling come August-September. There just needs to be something there to take advantage of it. Joaquin was the only major storm since 2008 to really take advantage of those SSTs.
Quoting 332. HurricaneFan:

At this rate we will be neutral by May...




Or sooner
Quoting 356. CybrTeddy:



Well, keep in mind that the Bahamas are always boiling come August-September. There just needs to be something there to take advantage of it. Joaquin was the only major storm since 2008 to really take advantage of those SSTs.

I agree. The major difference from 2016 and other "cold AMO" years is the warm pool near the Bahamas. This area could generate some strong storms, maybe even into November.
Quoting 358. HurricaneFan:


I agree. The major difference from 2016 and other "cold AMO" years is the warm pool near the Bahamas. This area could generate some strong storms, maybe even into November.


Any insight on the extent of the Bermuda High's strength down the road? Could we see a W/WNW track towards S Florida and the GOM or will we see a N/NE recurve towards NC and points above/Bermuda like Joaquin, Earl, Sandy and so many others?
moderate snow now

first of many accidents to come

Quoting 359. hurricaneben:



Any insight on the extent of the Bermuda High's strength down the road? Could we see a W/WNW track towards S Florida and the GOM or will we see a N/NE recurve towards NC and points above/Bermuda like Joaquin, Earl, Sandy and so many others?
Analogs show increased activity near the East Coast and Florida, Caribbean, and portions of the Gulf.
Quoting 362. Climate175:

Analogs show increased activity near the East Coast and Florida, Caribbean, and portions of the Gulf.
Quoting 332. HurricaneFan:

At this rate we will be neutral by May...


Quoting 357. Tazmanian:



Or sooner


I've been saying this since early Feb this year
Quoting 363. Gearsts:


Oh I see, so which one is preferable?
I think AMO will go positive by the start of the season or by the time we get into July/August
Quoting 364. wunderkidcayman:



I've been saying this since early Feb this year


NOAA's been on board with this.

Synopsis: "A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percent chance for La Nina conditions to develop by the fall."
Link
Quoting 367. Sfloridacat5:



NOAA's been on board with this.

Synopsis: "A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percent chance for La Nina conditions to develop by the fall."
Link


Sorry let me rephrase I was saying Neutral earlier like around mid to late April and La Niña by June at this rate
Looking at the big picture, here's the area with the highest probability of seeing a named storm (T.S. or Hurricane). We've definitely seen our share of systems just off the East Coast the past few years (near misses).
Quoting 368. wunderkidcayman:



Sorry let me rephrase I was saying Neutral earlier like around mid to late April and La Niña by June at this rate


I wouldn't be surprised by anything to be honest. But we're definitely saying good bye to El-Nino.
had too brush off the dish watchin Pompeii on sat here and lost signal there for a minute ok now
snow sticking too the dish moderate again now almost heavy
on the space channel
Quoting 369. Sfloridacat5:

Looking at the big picture, here's the area with the highest probability of seeing a named storm (T.S. or Hurricane). We've definitely seen our share of systems just off the East Coast the past few years (near misses).



I think all of that is gonna shift quite a bit SE most impact SE US and W Caribbean

Quoting 370. Sfloridacat5:



I wouldn't be surprised by anything to be honest. But we're definitely saying good bye to El-Nino.


Agreed

I say the transition and strength of future La Niña is hapmpered by the Spring predictability barrier
374. JRRP7
Quoting 371. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

had too brush off the dish watchin Pompeii on sat here and lost signal there for a minute ok now
snow sticking too the dish moderate again now almost heavy



Isnt a little late in the year for snow there now ?
Quoting 362. Climate175:

Analogs show increased activity near the East Coast and Florida, Caribbean, and portions of the Gulf.


2004 is increasingly starting to sound like a borderline 'analog' year, was it a neutral to weak La Nina? Abnormally warm SSTs over the Gulf Stream if I recall correctly. Not good for the recent transplants from up north who have not endured the hectic aftermath of Frances, Wilma, etc. I feel for my fellow South Floridian. Don't want to spark hype though
At least is wasn't Visine!
Quoting 376. hurricaneben:



2004 is increasingly starting to sound like a borderline 'analog' year, was it a neutral to weak La Nina? Abnormally warm SSTs over the Gulf Stream if I recall correctly. Not good for the recent transplants from up north who have not endured the hectic aftermath of Frances, Wilma, etc. I feel for my fellow South Floridian. Don't want to spark hype though
2004 was actually a modoki el nino year and a very weak one at that.
Quoting 375. Tazmanian:

Isnt a little late in the year for snow there now ?
In Vancouver, yes. In Toronto, no.
Quoting 376. hurricaneben:



2004 is increasingly starting to sound like a borderline 'analog' year, was it a neutral to weak La Nina? Abnormally warm SSTs over the Gulf Stream if I recall correctly. Not good for the recent transplants from up north who have not endured the hectic aftermath of Frances, Wilma, etc. I feel for my fellow South Floridian. Don't want to spark hype though
AMO was reverse in 2004.
Quoting 375. Tazmanian:




Isnt a little late in the year for snow there now ?

yeah but not unheard of
latest I have seen snow here is april 23rd latest to stay on the ground for 24 hrs or more is april 15th
This really made me laugh .... lol .....

The macho men of Maybelline ..... :-)
I've seen 30 cm snowstorms melt the next day as soon as the sun shines its an amazing thing too witness
Quoting 383. BahaHurican:

This really made me laugh .... lol .....

The macho men of Maybelline ..... :-)
I could see it now all deck out in eye makeup too fly into the grand eye of them all
it was a good april fools day blog we always get a good one
Quoting 353. HurrMichaelOrl:

A bit warmer than forecast here in the Orlando area today. Cold fronts can only do so much here in April, though I remember days with highs in the 60s and lows in the low 40s in early April. This is not one of those cold fronts!
Feeling a cool difference here overnight, but I expect it will warm up quite quickly tomorrow.
Quoting 356. CybrTeddy:



Well, keep in mind that the Bahamas are always boiling come August-September. There just needs to be something there to take advantage of it. Joaquin was the only major storm since 2008 to really take advantage of those SSTs.
Joaquin blew up over one of these warm anomaly patches, only east of here instead of west. Anonymously warm ssts to our east are imo more dangerous than along the gulf stream because the depth provides better TCHP. As long as it's moving fast enough, the Bahamas won't significantly impede a storm that's already had that advantage. Lots of historical precedent here.


9:40 PM EDT Sunday 03 April 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snow continues over the region and will be heavy at times. 10 to 15 cm will be possible before the snow tapers off early Monday morning. Gusty winds may also produce some local blowing snow.

Hazardous winter driving conditions are expected through tonight due to poor visibilities and accumulating snow. The bulk of the snow will be over by the Monday morning commute. However, some roads may remain snow covered and slippery.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 387. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Seems like a pretty heavy snowfall going on for April.... and with that setup not likely to get gone any time soon  ....
Quoting 391. BahaHurican:


yeah and the worse is yet too start that begins just before midnight and continues till o about 4 am or there about

the latest update now says 10 to 15 cm betting near 20 maybe

I already plowed off 5cm at back door area and small ramp and large underground entrance ramp and activated the ramp heater

I will be up till sunrise making sure everything stays clear for the monday morning rush

I am going out again around 1am


Highway 401 near Yonge Street
Quoting 376. hurricaneben:



2004 is increasingly starting to sound like a borderline 'analog' year, was it a neutral to weak La Nina? Abnormally warm SSTs over the Gulf Stream if I recall correctly. Not good for the recent transplants from up north who have not endured the hectic aftermath of Frances, Wilma, etc. I feel for my fellow South Floridian. Don't want to spark hype though


I think best analog for this year based ( Current state of el Nino and the predictions, as march) are 1983 and
1998 season, one,was one of the quiet one on record and the other was very active.


1983


1998


2016

This year can go either way, I think will go 1998 direction but maybe not as active in terms of hurricanes.
Quoting 396. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




In the 50s in the day in Anchorage... I see you are getting winter weather.

Another article about climate change in Alaska. AMAZING how fast the mountains are getting shrubbier as the temps warm.

http://www.adn.com/article/20160403/temperatures- climb-so-do-shrubs-alaskas-mountainsides

Link
Quoting 366. wunderkidcayman:

I think AMO will go positive by the start of the season or by the time we get into July/August
Me too buddy.
Check back with me in November, and I'll tell you how we made out.


Quoting 394. stormchaser19:



I think best analog for this year based ( Current state of el Nino and the predictions, as march) are 1983 and
1998 season, one,was one of the quiet one on record and the other was very active.


1983


1998


2016

This year can go either way, I think will go 1998 direction but maybe not as active in terms of hurricanes.
Quoting 374. JRRP7:




Hmm I'm following those blue lines atm

Quoting 376. hurricaneben:



2004 is increasingly starting to sound like a borderline 'analog' year, was it a neutral to weak La Nina? Abnormally warm SSTs over the Gulf Stream if I recall correctly. Not good for the recent transplants from up north who have not endured the hectic aftermath of Frances, Wilma, etc. I feel for my fellow South Floridian. Don't want to spark hype though


Well 2004 was a Modoki El Niño but I get what you are saying and yeah I agree

Quoting 380. Gearsts:

AMO was reverse in 2004.



I do think AMO will go positive and be much like '04

Quoting 398. Andrebrooks:

Me too buddy.


Good

Anyway CPC ENSO update coming out in a few hrs looking forward to it
1.2c
Quoting 402. Gearsts:

1.2c


Not any more it's now 1.1C
Quoting 403. wunderkidcayman:


Not any more it's now 1.1C
yep 1.196
Quoting 404. Gearsts:

yep 1.196


At this rate I'd say Neutal by 3rd week in April
Quoting 405. wunderkidcayman:



At this rate I'd say Neutal by 3rd week in April
We are already faster than 98.
I-87 at exit 6 southbound

Twin Bridges looking south (just north of 6)
Naga5000: Appreciate your response re: CO2. Tough bringing doubter friends to review global warming evidence.
fiji; heavy rains with severe flooding reported due a slow moving trough of low pressure. its been a while since we've seen anything like this on this side of the world. i believe back in the 30s there was a trough that dished out over 100 inches of rain over parts of cuba. this could happen again in 2016. gw'ers would have a field day
This is going to most likely again be a problem this hurricane season IMO.

Tropical Atlantic vertical instability is once again running well below average.

Quoting 358. HurricaneFan:


I agree. The major difference from 2016 and other "cold AMO" years is the warm pool near the Bahamas. This area could generate some strong storms, maybe even into November.
I would wait on predicting a cold AMO for this summer, and a few more years to come.
Quoting 397. Dakster:



In the 50s in the day in Anchorage... I see you are getting winter weather.

Another article about climate change in Alaska. AMAZING how fast the mountains are getting shrubbier as the temps warm.

http://www.adn.com/article/20160403/temperatures- climb-so-do-shrubs-alaskas-mountainsides

Link
Looks like a really cold winter for you this upcoming winter, with the return to Nina conditions.
Quoting 382. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

latest I have seen snow here is april 23rd latest to stay on the ground for 24 hrs or more is april 15th


In Southwest Virginia (Virginia Polytechnic Institute 2100 feet elevation) I saw 5" of dense heavy wet snow following 4.5" of rain on April 27, 1978 At that elevation it melted the next day but the mountains around us had 15-20" of dense heavy wet snow and that lasted until the first of May. The 6" liquid water precip event was primarily snow above 3000 feet. There was also substantial flash and river flooding in Roanoke at 1300 feet (all rain there)
CPC weekly update of 4/4/16 has Nino 3.4 the same as last week at +1.5C. ONI is down to +2.0C.

CPC update of 4/4/16
Quoting 414. Tropicsweatherpr:

CPC weekly update of 4/4/16 has Nino 3.4 the same as last week at +1.5C. ONI is down to +2.0C.

CPC update of 4/4/16


We all no that is not right at all has Nino is down too 1.1 and weaking fast I think we see that in next week update
Quoting 414. Tropicsweatherpr:

CPC weekly update of 4/4/16 has Nino 3.4 the same as last week at +1.5C. ONI is down to +2.0C.

CPC update of 4/4/16


I highly disagree with this it a bit lower
Anyway all this means that next week update we may see an even steeper drop in numbers

Quoting 415. Tazmanian:



We all no that is not right at all has Nino is down too 1.1 and weaking fast I think we see that in next week update


Agreed Taz

Quoting 416. wunderkidcayman:



I highly disagree with this it a bit lower
Anyway all this means that next week update we may see an even steeper drop in numbers



Agreed Taz


I think someone should email the CPC about this.
Potential for two cyclones to hit Fiji
BBC, 4 April 2016 Last updated at 12:43
Already battered by the effects of Storm Winston, Fiji is dealing once again with extreme weather and flooding as another cyclone, possibly even two, approaches the island.

Fiji flooding caused by heavy rain, weeks after Cyclone Winston battered country
ABC, Updated about 3 hours ago


Source: article above.

Flooding hitting Solomons, Vanuatu warned
8:15 pm on 4 April 2016
Villages in parts of Solomon Islands are being affected by flooding caused by two tropical lows.

419. OKsky
Quoting 184. NativeSun:

No excuses, it will just show him he was wrong, and he will admit it, but what if he is right, will all these so called climate change experts on this sight admit they were wrong? Does anyone know what the correlation is, between sun spots and the ocean temps?


Did you ignore my link? There hasn't been a correlation since 1975 thanks to rising temps drowning the effect out.
Quoting 415. Tazmanian:



We all no that is not right at all has Nino is down too 1.1 and weaking fast I think we see that in next week update


one must look at the timeline where this information is taken from....also trusting the CDAS for your current anomalies can often be incorrect....as it stands and looking at the data...i would think something as simple as quoting a weekly anomaly....well.....why would you not trust the experts???????
Our WU-member PlazaRed, living in southern Spain, is getting a very good soaking after complaining about a way too dry winter:


Current radar Spain (saved).

Accumulated rain until tomorrow.


Flooding threat continues into Tuesday across Spain
By Adam Douty, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist, April 4, 2016; 9:24 AM ET

And more SAL on the way over Europe:
'Blood rain' and Saharan dust heading for UK as temperatures soar to hotter than Ibiza
10:24, 4 Apr 2016, Updated 11:24, 4 Apr 2016
According to the Met Office, "blood rain" is caused by Saharan dust mixing with rain leaving a reddish residue on buildings and cars
A couple of days ago I showed a picture of our wind-beaten magnolia tree. Now it's been frozen. You can't trust the weather when you're waiting for saucer-sized magnolia blossoms.



Quoting 422. ChiThom:

A couple of days ago I showed a picture of our wind-beaten magnolia tree. Now it's been frozen. You can't trust the weather when you're waiting for saucer-sized magnolia blossoms.

Aww, this is bad. Sorry for the poor blossoms :-(
We have two of these red-bellied woodpeckers at our bird-feeder, but never at the same time.
ChiThom #424: Very nice shot of the woodpecker! Here its German collegue at our feeder (in our weekend garden near Frankfurt) on Saturday:

At least 55 killed in flash floods in northern Pakistan
Source: Reuters - Mon, 4 Apr 2016 11:35 GMT
ISLAMABAD, April 4 (Reuters) - Flash floods triggered by heavy rain in Pakistan have killed at least 55 people and rescuers were trying on Monday to help thousands of survivors including some cut off by a landslide in a mountain valley, officials said.
The weather system that brought the unusually heavy rain was expected to move northeast, towards northern India, although more isolated storms were expected in northern Pakistan, the Meteorological Department said. ...


As Indonesian forests burn, new anti-fire agency feels heat
Source: Reuters - Sun, 3 Apr 2016 23:00 GMT

China braces for "severe" flooding on Yangtze River
International Shipping News 04/04/2016
Severe floods are expected on China's Yangtze River this year due to a strong El Nino weather pattern, state media said, raising the risk of deaths and damage to property and crops along the country's longest waterway. ...
Quoting 410. CybrTeddy:

This is going to most likely again be a problem this hurricane season IMO.

Tropical Atlantic vertical instability is once again running well below average.




I hope not.
Downy woodpecker

upside downy woodpecker
Quoting 425. barbamz:

ChiThom #424: Very nice shot of the woodpecker! Here its German collegue at our feeder (in our weekend garden near Frankfurt) on Saturday:



More colleagues! Cool!


Caribbean instability increasing currently around average

Caribbean shear on the other hand is way way way below average
Quoting 412. NativeSun:

Looks like a really cold winter for you this upcoming winter, with the return to Nina conditions.

Do you have any links to studies on how winter in Alaska is affected by El Niño/La Niña?
Good Morning; waiting on the new Blog from Masters/Henson. In the meantime, here are the two current storms brewing in the South Pacific:


And expect an upgrade (from "low") for 97 P any minute now: good news for the Vanuatu Islands (rain notwithstanding) that it will be passed them soon but not good news for Fiji as noted below by Barbantz.

Here is the current prognosis for both S-Pacific Lows as they both track to the SE: wind shear is moderate so major storms might not be the case but flooding rains are a problems for the affected islands:
97 P



96 P



1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3S
177.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 177.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
FORMATIVE BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE AT
APPROXIMATELY 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A NARROW WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SHARPLY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT IS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
161.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING BUT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING STRETCHING
EASTWARD FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS TOWARDS FIJI. A 040420Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS STRAIGHT
LINE IN NATURE, HOWEVER, THE 032256Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SUGGESTS AN
EMERGING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOWS FAIR CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RESPECTABLE
DIVERGENCE, SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE, BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
437. vis0

Quoting 354. Geoboy645:

Gotta love Wisconsin in the spring. Friday 50 and rain. Yesterday 36 and snow/hail showers. Today 70 and sunny. Tomorrow 36 and sunny. I think Mother nature is pulling an April fools joke right now and it sucks.
Nah MamaNana is just doing her stretches getting ready for her world renown worldtour-combo of 10 yard dashes and seemingly endless Triathlons.