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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

March Rainfall Records Doused; Damaging Freeze Possible in Northeast

By: Bob Henson 6:03 PM GMT on March 31, 2016

More severe weather is in store for Thursday and Friday after tornadoes hopscotched near and east of Tulsa on Wednesday and flooding rains inundated other areas. A damage survey was underway in northeast Oklahoma on Thursday morning in the wake of the tornadoes, which caused at least seven injuries and damaged a number of structures. One of the twisters was visible from Tulsa International Airport (see video here, from Twitter user Brandyn). In its roundup of severe weather reports from Wednesday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) listed four preliminary tornado reports from the storm near Tulsa, along with two other reports from southeast Kansas and southeast Arkansas.

The greatest threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening is across northern Mississippi, northwest Alabama, and western Tennessee, where the 11:30 am CDT outlook from SPC is calling for an enhanced risk of severe weather (Figure 1). An outflow boundary from previous storms is stretched east-west across northern MS and AL. As upper-level energy approaches, this boundary will serve to enhance vertical wind shear, and a strong tornado or two could develop in supercells that form near the boundary. The upper-level trough and associated cold front will slide across the central Gulf Coast on Friday, leading to a continued risk of severe weather in that area--primarily high winds and large hail, together with heavy rain. Severe storms are also possible northward along the cold front to the mid-Atlantic, particularly in the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina if temperatures warm enough there on Friday.


Figure 1. The convective outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center late Wednesday morning, March 30, 2016, included an enhanced risk area for Wednesday centered on northern Mississippi and a slight risk for Thursday near the central Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. A tornado touches down in the vicinity of Tulsa, OK, on Wednesday, March 30, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Larry Papke.

Wettest March on record for Memphis, Little Rock
Today’s rains will serve as a capstone to a March that already ranks among the wettest on record for states bordering the lower Mississippi River. As of midnight Wednesday night, Memphis, TN, was sitting at 13.78” for the month. This already beats the previous March record of 13.04” from the region’s devastating spring of 1927, which brought the worst river flood in our nation’s history. Memphis records go back to 1872. In Little Rock, AR, an even 4.00” on Wednesday led to widespread flooding across the area. Little Rock has now racked up its wettest March by far since records began in 1875, with 12.22” this month beating out 10.43” (1897). Both Memphis and Little Rock will have added to their March totals before the day and month are done; Memphis will go up by at least 2.00” based on rains that had already fallen by midday Thursday.


Figure 3. Temperatures projected from this morning’s 12Z Thursday run of the GFS model for 12Z (7:00 am CDT) Tuesday, April 5, 2016. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Widespread freeze damage possible next week across East
Early April may bring a cruel surprise to many trees and shrubs that popped into premature bloom over the last several weeks across the Northeast. It finally dipped below freezing on Wednesday morning in Baltimore and in areas just west of I-95. However, from New York southward, it’s still been nearly a month since most of the urban corridor has seen a hard freeze. In New York and Philadelphia, the last temperature below 32°F was back on March 5, although Central Park touched 32° on March 20 and 21. During the 1981-2010 climatological period, the average date for the final reading of 31°F or colder in Central Park was on March 13. Making matters worse--though it seemed pleasant enough at the time--was the spell of record-smashing mid-March warmth that sent temperatures into the low 80s in parts of New York and New England.

The lack of snow cover over the Northeast has allowed soil temperatures to warm as well, which hastens the budding and blooming of trees. The mildness has advanced New Jersey’s growing season by several weeks, state climatologist David Robinson (Rutgers University) told AgWeb. Plum and peach trees in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania were already in bloom this week. In Washington, D.C., the famed yoshino cherry blossoms of the Tidal Basin hit peak bloom on March 25, almost two weeks before the April 4 average and earlier than in all recent years, with the notable exceptions of 2012 (March 20) and 1990 (March 15).


Figure 4. Temperatures across the entire nation except for the Pacific Northwest coast were well above average for the period March 1 – 29, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.


Several rounds of cold weather are on tap for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next few days. Temperatures may dip to near freezing from D.C. northward on Sunday morning, with colder readings well into the 20s possible across much of the area by midweek (see Figure 3 above), and perhaps again by next weekend. Although these readings are 20°F to 30°F below average, they’re unlikely to set very many record lows: the latest 32°F temperatures on record are April 29 in Washington, May 11 in Baltimore and Philadelphia, and May 6 in Central Park. However, the impacts of the coming cooldown may be more akin to getting a freeze in mid- to late April, given the advanced state of plant growth over the region. The situation brings to mind the disastrous freeze of April 11-12, 2012, which followed the unprecedented Great Warm Wave of March. That freeze, together with frosts later that month, devastated already-blooming fruit trees across the Midwest and Northeast. In Michigan, the apple crop was virtually wiped out.

WU weather historian Christopher Burt has a new blog post summarizing where California stands in terms of snowpack and precipitation after a not-quite-miraculous March.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Dogwood blossoms on Wednesday, March 30, 2016, in Danville, VA. Image credit: wunderphotographer WeatherWise.

Flood Extreme Weather Severe Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
From previous blog.

Quoting 263. LargoFl:

with a 10ft sea level rise,kiss most of the gulf and east coast cities goodbye..................


So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?
Well, guess my post is lost in the ether, so apologies if it all of a sudden appears. Was getting ready to edit it, as downpour let loose at 1 just after I hit post. Anyway, line formed to our E & S instead of moving over us in cells as 10 o'clock news forecast showed last night. Looks like more discreet cells are even farther S & E near Wabash / Ohio confluence. Will need to keep an eye open for more development ahead of front passage, but doubt any severe here in S C IL, but enhanced area def needs to keep an eye out.

Press dropped a tad to 29.42", temp up to 68 (at least b4 downpour, which is over now), says dew pt still 59, though felt stickier. Will be interested to see how much came down in that 8 mins. A few little rumbles from it too, were louder yesterday.

Now I know why first post was slow to show up in last blog:) Decided to bring second to new blog. Heads up to our S & E this afternoon.
Posts are taking a long time to show up today. Great update Bob, should be an interesting time along the Gulf coast in NW Florida this evening through tomorrow. Glad it's coming through now and we'll have nice weather this weekend!
Quoting 2. 69Viking:

From previous blog.



So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?
Please don't confuse them with facts.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Sea level pressure anomalies strongly positive across the N Atlantic in Mar 2016. Generally unfavorable for Atl TCs
Quoting 6. JRRP7:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Sea level pressure anomalies strongly positive across the N Atlantic in Mar 2016. Generally unfavorable for Atl TCs
How many storms due we usually get in March? Lets at least wait until summer, before we start finalizing how many hurricanes we will have this year.
Quoting 6. JRRP7:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Sea level pressure anomalies strongly positive across the N Atlantic in Mar 2016. Generally unfavorable for Atl TCs
NAO is positive.
Quoting 2. 69Viking:

From previous blog.



So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?


I think it's noted in blue in that particular map that is corresponding to the areas of 10 feet or less in elevation. The yellow outline is the counties affected by that rise. Here is the same map essentially but with red highlighting the areas that are at 1 meter or less in elevation.


SOURCE FSU University


Quoting 5. NativeSun:

Please don't confuse them with facts.


Source?
Quoting 9. ILwthrfan:



I think it's noted in blue in that particular map that is corresponding to the areas of 10 feet or less in elevation. The yellow outline is the counties affected by that rise. Here is the same map essentially but with red highlighting the areas that are at 1 meter or less in elevation.


SOURCE FSU University





The tool from Climate Central is nice to play around with, this is Florida with 10 feet. Link
The GFS has been fairly consistent on an arctic outbreak East of the Rockies for the past ten days.   It has trended further north with the first one on Sunday,, haven't tracked the later ones as much but it looks like a cold week next week through Saturday April 9 in DC metro but with a lot of variation.
I don't remember a really vicious April freeze in the DC area though there have been several threats and I've NEVER in forty years seen the cherry blossoms freeze.   Light freezes are in our climatology through the first half of April (subfreezing with wind) and radiation frost is  a risk as Jeff says THROUGH the month of April in the inner burbs and city and till memorial day in the outer suburbs in very exposed  and slightly depressed areas.


College Park is relatively mild compared with the western suburbs and I am not expecting damage to fruit trees (apples are in tight bud and peaches are blooming.. in these stages they are safe to 25-27F).   Lower temperatures further west where growing degree accumulations are almost as much so the trees are about as far along,  will more likely be damaging.

I have nothing in the garden yet that is vulnerable.   Peas will be damaged below 27F and probably killed below 23F.
Not expecting that cold.


I may have to protect my orange and lemon trees since they are budding with small flower buds and more vulnerable than in midwinter when they will tolerate low 20s F (here where they go into full dormancy, not in FL where winters are too warm to support full dormancy in citrus)
Quoting 11. Naga5000:



The tool from Climate Central is nice to play around with, this is Florida with 10 feet. Link


Did not realize the extent of problems that would occur with California as well. Specifically San Pablo & Suisun Bays near San Fran. Sacramento is nearly half under water with a 10 foot rise....:/
Quoting 2. 69Viking:

From previous blog.
So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?
Quoting 5. NativeSun:

Please don't confuse them with facts.


The outline represents area being examined by NOAA on their sea level rise webpage, not the area that will be under water with 10ft rise.

Here's direct link.
Link
Quoting 13. ILwthrfan:



Did not realize the extent of problems that would occur with California as well. Specifically San Pablo & Suisun Bays near San Fran. Sacramento is nearly half under water with a 10 foot rise....:/
Yeah, it's surprising, but that's the reality of it. I live in Sacramento and this will be something I'll be advocating for policy to match up to. There's a lot of education that needs to happen. Especially if there's ever a scenario with a abrupt rise in sea level. E.g. not a smooth exponential curve to year 2100 rate, but rather a sudden 5 ft. rise in sea level preparedness/mitigation/emergency planning etc.
CNN updated the article

"At the high end, the worst-case scenarios, with sort of business as usual greenhouse gas emissions ... we will literally be remapping coastlines," Deconto told CNN.


Ice melt could make seas rise 6 feet by 2100, study says
Just noticed the picture of DOGWOODs in Danville.  That's early for SC VA!

Just noticed (drought sneaks up on ya!)  March has been quite dry in DC.  I've never seen that
before in the two previous super nino years 1983 and 1998 which were both very wet.

Quoting 2. 69Viking:

From previous blog.



So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?


I think a better question to ask is "how many (or proportion of) people live in the 10' sea level rise boundary today and in the future"? Since we can't really mitigate 10 feet of sea level rise (maybe 5 economically sound?) but after x amount of feet, you're going to have to migrate people. There's a lot of ice that can be melted in our lifetimes that can impact a very large amount of people (as opposed to "just" land).
if you don't mitigate, use this link to figure out what 10 feet looks like for Florida:

climate central risk analyzer
Quoting 9. ILwthrfan:



I think it's noted in blue in that particular map that is corresponding to the areas of 10 feet or less in elevation. The yellow outline is the counties affected by that rise. Here is the same map essentially but with red highlighting the areas that are at 1 meter or less in elevation.


SOURCE FSU University





Thanks for the clarification since the map didn't come with a key to explain the boundaries outlined.
From last blog

Quoting 245. JRRP7:


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
2016 has surprisingly (to me) moved ahead of '98 in a possible #LaNina transition w/much less warm water in the east


No suprise
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 70
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE MAIN TORNADO RISK WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED...AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH INTO
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISK LATER THIS EVENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 68...WW 69...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


been here over 30 ys now. no sign of it locally. still waiting for the water to rise e cen fl.
Quoting 2. 69Viking:

From previous blog.



So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?
I was wondering the same thing, I'm 58 feet above sea level yet it has my whole county pretty much under water...
Thanks Doc.
Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:

From last blog



No suprise
But why is no surprise to you that we are ahead of the monster 98 La nina transition??
Quoting 25. LargoFl:

I was wondering the same thing, I'm 58 feet above sea level yet it has my whole county pretty much under water...


That's odd- ask the site to validate their findings based on your observation.
Quoting 25. LargoFl:

I was wondering the same thing, I'm 58 feet above sea level yet it has my whole county pretty much under water...


I suggest taking a closer look.

Link
In regards to "Eric Blake @EricBlake12
2016 has surprisingly (to me) moved ahead of '98 in a possible #LaNina transition w/much less warm water in the east ."


Look how fast that cold tongue is shooting toward the surface.

Update: Remember that this covers from 2 degrees north & south, which is only 40% of the latitude covered by el nino regions (5 degree north & south.) The graph above shows 1998 SSTs at 1C or so warmer than current SSTs because it's missing 60% of the nino area. This also points more to the heat difference latitudinally between the two events.
Thank you Mr Henson for the timely post. I remember those April 2012 frosts all too well.

My apricot, cherry and peach trees are still a couple of weeks away from blossoming, thank goodness. I have one early plum that will likely open mid week or sooner so it will see some damage. My Tartarian honeysuckle bush has leaves emerging now so it will be interesting to see how it recovers.
32. vis0

Quoting 5. NativeSun:

Please don't confuse them with facts.
Like the fact that a few of those areas quite a bit above sea level will be then called The Florida key-chain Islands.
.i'm sure you ca afford amphibious car to do your shopping, just try not to cause too much of a wake  or the then neighbors tomato patch will be s[plashed by salt water.
1st half of april gets a polar vortex shot and that will take till mid april to break away with a significant warm up for the latter half of april following

we could see snow here sunday night up too 10 cm with temps in the mid teens on the f scale
almost 60 f now
break in the rain till cold front gets here soon
then a slow cool down starts
and gets colder as we progress into the weekend
forecast out till tuseday next week

Issued: 3:30 PM EDT Thursday 31 March 2016


Date

Detailed Forecast


Tonight Periods of rain ending near midnight then mainly cloudy. Risk of a thunderstorm late this evening. Wind southwest 40 km/h gusting to 70 diminishing to 20 gusting to 40 near midnight then becoming light before morning. Low 8.
Fri, 1 Apr Mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Wind becoming west 20 km/h gusting to 40 in the morning. High 12 with temperature falling to 6 in the afternoon. UV index 4 or moderate.
Night Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the evening. Wind west 20 km/h gusting to 40. Low zero.
Sat, 2 Apr Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. High plus 2.
Night Cloudy with 70 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 9.
Sun, 3 Apr A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of flurries. High minus 2.
Night Cloudy with 70 percent chance of snow. Low minus 7.
Mon, 4 Apr A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of flurries. Windy. High minus 3.
Night Cloudy periods. Windy. Low minus 10.
Tue, 5 Apr Sunny. High plus 1.
Night Clear. Low minus 7.
Wed, 6 Apr A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of rain or snow. High plus 2.
Wet good evening greetings from Europe, folks, and thanks for the new blog about rainfalls, doc, as it matches some news from northwestern Spain:

Hundreds evacuated from homes as floods hit Spain
The Local (Spain), Published: 31 Mar 2016 10:33 GMT+02:00
Severe floods have hit northern Spain as hundreds of people were evacuated from their homes on Wednesday.
While much of central and southern Spain was enjoying the first of spring’s sunshine, the north of the country was being battered by intense storms that have caused serious flooding in several towns.
The Galician region of A Coruña, in northwestern Spain, has experienced the worst floods in its history; hundreds of people have to be evacuated by boat from their homes on Wednesday.
The town of Sada on Spain’s northwestern coast was particularly badly hit, with 200 residents having to be evacuated.
The town has declared itself a "catastrophe zone" and a cleanup operation was in place as the waters receded on Thursday. ...

More with pics, videos and figures see link above.

The Spanish rainfall happened due to a stationary resp. slow moving frontal boundary over Western and Central Europe, where cold northern airmasses meet warm airmasses from the Mediterranean. Here is a satellite pic from this boundary over Spain yesterday:


Source.

Today my town Mainz mid Germany has slipped under the strongest part of this boundary (sat pic from today) - and I really enjoy listenting to lasting rains hitting my window right now as it's usually quite (too) dry in the place at the lee side of the slopes of Rhine valley. Rain should continue tomorrow, maybe triggering some flooding in parts of Germany as well - and afterwards a gorgeous warm and sunny weekend is forecast which calls for going outside and/or doing some gardening. Flora will love this mix of weather ...


Current weather in Europe with the stretch of the wet frontal boundary over Germany.
Below accumulated rainfall "over my house" (lol) for the next 24 hours.

Hundreds of UK churches set to go green, switch to renewable energy-charities
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Wed, 30 Mar 2016 14:39 GMT
LONDON, March 30 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - More than 400 churches in the United Kingdom plan to switch to clean energy providers for their light and heat, shifting spending of 1 million pounds ($1.4 million) to renewables from fossil fuels, two Christian charities said on Wednesday.
The move is part of the Big Church Switch, an initiative launched in February by charities Christian Aid and Tearfund, which urged UK churches and households to use clean sources of energy instead of carbon-emitting fossil fuels. ...

More see link above.

Can imams drive action on climate change in Pakistan?
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 31 Mar 2016 08:20 GMT
SLAMABAD, March 31 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Imams and other religious leaders are an under-used means of pushing action to combat climate change, experts and religious scholars say. ...
At the recent gathering, which drew scientists, religious scholars and academics, Charles Amjad, an American professor emeritus at the Luther Seminary in Minnesota, said relying only on political and non-governmental organisation leaders to drive climate action was a mistaken approach.
"We must realise that people do listen to religious scholars in mosques, priests in churches, rabbis in synagogues and pundits in Hindu temples in most developing countries, far more than they do to politicians, bureaucrats, media and mayors," he said.
"This power of faith activists must be tapped for addressing climate change," he urged. ...

(Whole article see link above).
barb never thought about it like that before

maybe we could send bumper sticker messages like

god says take care of earth
or I shall take care of you
Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

barb never thought about it like that before

maybe we could send bumper sticker messages like

god says take care of earth
or I shall take care of you
Well said Keep...It is true...What you give you get back...Sometimes more...
Quoting 42. hydrus:

Well said Keep...It is true...What you give you get back...Sometimes more...


* Deadly stars: Our sun could also be superflare star I really don't think this has happened with out sun--there would be signs of it in our geological record. Larry Niven wrote a good short story about this. Inconstant Moon

Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

barb never thought about it like that before

maybe we could send bumper sticker messages like

god says take care of earth
or I shall take care of you

God has a bumper sticker on the back of his car that reads "Stop creating me in your own image!"

If you want to know what god or heaven looks like, just look around. Our planet is our heaven, or our hell. It's up to us. It's time to accept our responsibility as conscious co-creators, instead of offloading it to some white guy in space with a beard or the promise of a perfect afterlife.
First chance of the year for thunderstorms tonight. Cool.
   Thanks for the Interesting Post Mr. Henson,
Quoting 5. NativeSun:

Please don't confuse them with facts.


Really ? Are you sure this is the best tack ?
Quoting 2. 69Viking:

From previous blog.



So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?
I think you're misinterpreting the map... The shaded areas are counties on the coast... The blue shading along the coast depicts the areas that would be underwater. This is just my assumption and observation from living in Florida and knowing the county outlines.
From the Scribbler thread -

I saw the GOES WEST loop showing the jet swinging way up into Alaska yesterday.
So , I started looking at Fairbanks. The stats say they should be between :
34F and 8F

It's 52.9 °F there right now -

Link
Be sure to look at their 10 day forecast.
This fits a larger pattern that Ryan in New England just commented on. And that I am seeing here. But here we are doing the following :

10F to 20F above average during the day, testing the daily records, and every now and then cracking one. When a front comes through, it just drives us back down near our old averages. Then a the day or two, and right back to this new pattern.

These spring cold fronts don't have teeth anymore, just lots of dry wind.
Quoting 45. VibrantPlanet:


God has a bumper sticker on the back of his car that reads "Stop creating me in your own image!"

If you want to know what god or heaven looks like, just look around. Our planet is our heaven, or our hell. It's up to us. It's time to accept our responsibility as conscious co-creators, instead of offloading it to some white guy in space with a beard or the promise of a perfect afterlife.


What's with the ranting?

It's a weather blog, keep to it.
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
755 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

GAC131-010030-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160401T0030Z/
GRADY GA-
755 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
GRADY COUNTY...

AT 754 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR WHIGHAM...OR 8 MILES WEST OF CAIRO...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CAIRO AROUND 815 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
PEOPLES STILL...AKRIDGE...GRADY CO A/P...CAPEL AND ELPINO.

LAT...LON 3083 8415 3084 8438 3101 8437 3102 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 271DEG 21KT 3091 8435

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

42-DVD


Already two tornado warning in SW GA, it's going to be a busy day tomorrow as severe weather continues, with widespread heavy rains of 2-4 inches with locally higher totals likely.

It's going to be a meteorology kinda day tomorrow around here!
Quoting 52. BaltimoreBrian:

Why Do Raindrop Sizes Matter In Storms?




Great video! I've been particularly fascinated in about that subject myself for quite a while.
Dear KOTG or JUSTMEINHOUSTON:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016


.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING SE TX. SKIES
ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND MOST OF THE TAF SITES
(EXCLUDING THE COAST) WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. COASTAL SITES MIGHT NOT EVER CLEAR TODAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOG FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SE TX EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS WILL YIELD A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRI MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDER
BUT WILL WITHHOLD MENTIONING IN THE TAFS JUST YET. N-NE WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS
POSSIBLE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA OVERCAST BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE
SOUTHWEST. THIS OVERALL COLUMN-WIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW UP A
MUCH WARMER SOUTHERN TEXAS AIR MASS AND...IF SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEAR...MAY ALLOW MANY COMMUNITIES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WEAK FRONT
IS TIMED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND STALL OUT OVER OUR
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS EARLY TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN GULF
SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ABOVE SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL CREATE ENOUGH GENTLE UPGLIDE TO GENERATE SOUTHERN
THIRD CWA FRIDAY CONVECTION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING FRIDAY`S DAYTIME HOURS AS LEADING WEAK DISTURBANCES
PASS OVERHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT SKIES...WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LOWER FAR INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 50S....MIDDLE 60S AT COAST. THE COMBINATION
OF MORE OVERCAST/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR...WILL REGULATE TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. 31

Any chance these "isolated thunderstorms" could be strong or severe even though SE Texas is not in SPC's risk area? Is it likely that the western plains trough and GOM moisture will actually "beef up" these weak disturbances? If so, does that account for NWS 60% rain chance for the area?
Quoting 24. islander101010:

been here over 30 ys now. no sign of it locally. still waiting for the water to rise e cen fl.


Guess you haven't examined tidal gauge data from around the area then. Or any of the papers that have used said tidal data in their research.

Google isn't that hard to use.
@pureet

"Any chance these "isolated thunderstorms" could be strong or severe even though SE Texas is not in SPC's risk area? Is it likely that the western plains trough and GOM moisture will actually "beef up" these weak disturbances? If so, does that account for NWS 60% rain chance for the area?"

I doubt that we will get anything severe here. Probably a bit more than we have seen in the last couple of days which hasnt amounted to much. We had 40% chance earlier today ...and yes, some drops came down ...but not even enough to measure. It would be really nice if we could get a proper thunderstorm ..not holding out on that to happen though.
Okay WU just did something really weird o_0.It wouldn't allow me to sign in for a complete hour and a half.First it would have only my WU mail showing on the options list regarding my account but that was it.My username was M.I.A and it wouldn't allow access to my blog which was also M.I.A.It signed me out and then said something about user validation.Some weird bugs on this site for sure.
Quoting 59. justmehouston:

@pureet

"Any chance these "isolated thunderstorms" could be strong or severe even though SE Texas is not in SPC's risk area? Is it likely that the western plains trough and GOM moisture will actually "beef up" these weak disturbances? If so, does that account for NWS 60% rain chance for the area?"

I doubt that we will get anything severe here. Probably a bit more than we have seen in the last couple of days which hasnt amounted to much. We had 40% chance earlier today ...and yes, some drops came down ...but not even enough to measure. It would be really nice if we could get a proper thunderstorm ..not holding out on that to happen though.


Well, as I posted, they're including thunder due to the NAM soundings. Does the NAM see any strengthening of the disturbances due to the western plains trough? Why go by the NAM, anyway? GFS doesn't think this front's going to be any big deal.
Quoting 45. VibrantPlanet:


God has a bumper sticker on the back of his car that reads "Stop creating me in your own image!"

If you want to know what god or heaven looks like, just look around. Our planet is our heaven, or our hell. It's up to us. It's time to accept our responsibility as conscious co-creators, instead of offloading it to some white guy in space with a beard or the promise of a perfect afterlife.
Amen
Here's two headlines from BB-

US faces floods of climate refugees

Debate over water rights intensifies as Saudis buy up swaths of US farmland


The "climate change scam " continues

VS Not Fix CFS
Strong trade winds

More shear over the MDR
CFS continues to show a warmer North Atlantic but a cooler tropical Atlantic...
Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:

CFS continues to show a warmer North Atlantic but a cooler tropical Atlantic...

Is getting better but the CFS still has the Atlantic La nina and that cold water on the (CFS) spreads west. Euro doesn't show that massive cold pool.
Debate over water rights intensifies as Saudis buy up swaths of US farmland

There's yer problem -

Link

Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:

CFS continues to show a warmer North Atlantic but a cooler tropical Atlantic...



Is that good or bad?
Quoting 67. Gearsts:

Is getting better but the CFS still has the Atlantic La nina and that cold water on the (CFS) spreads west. Euro doesn't show that massive cold pool.

CanSIPS updated
Quoting 71. pureet1948:



Is that good or bad?


Good or bad for what?
Engraved illustration depicting wind directions, 1598. Click illustration to expand.

Quoting 77. BaltimoreBrian:

Engraved illustration depicting wind directions, 1598. Click illustration to expand.


Guess someone had a lot of time on their hands.
Quoting 72. JRRP7:


CanSIPS updated


And it's boring :(
Quoting 79. CaribBoy:



And it's boring :(

lol...
Meanwhile Alaska broke a heat record. 71f in the state... in march....

http://www.adn.com/article/20160331/temperature-j ust-hit-71-degrees-alaska-march

Link
Quoting 79. CaribBoy:



And it's boring :(

Shows most of the Atlantic as dry at peak time...
Quoting 83. Dakster:

Meanwhile Alaska broke a heat record. 71f in the state... in march....

http://www.adn.com/article/20160331/temperature-j ust-hit-71-degrees-alaska-march

Link


ALASKA - NEW RECORD EARLIEST 70 F + TEMPERATURE: A 71 F / 22 C temperature at Klawock AK today is the first time that a temperature of at least 70 F has been recorded anywhere in Alaska before April in a calendar year.

Link
Dakster & DCwithunderscores, this site has monthly temperature records for the states. Unfortunately it's only updated through 2004. I'll ask Christopher Burt if there is a more current list.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1042 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 1000 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 939 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 935 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 924 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 920 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 918 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 917 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 906 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 905 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 855 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 855 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 835 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
My posts seem to be randomly disappearing. I guess a notification would be at least courteous.
Quoting 89. Mediarologist:

My posts seem to be randomly disappearing. I guess a notification would be at least courteous.
give it up
Quoting 83. Dakster:

Meanwhile Alaska broke a heat record. 71f in the state... in march....

http://www.adn.com/article/20160331/temperature-j ust-hit-71-degrees-alaska-march

Link




Alaska is getting a nice southern maritime flow off pacific
keeping things toasty all the while a flow to the south east
east of it is setting sights on the eastern north American continent
over the weekend as the flow is force se ward over mid central Canada
Saw a Mama and Baby Moose on the side of the highway today. Spring has sprung. I'm sure baby bears are right around the corner. One was spotted a couple of weeks ago as we got a warning, but I haven't seen any bears this year, yet.

KOTG - Yeah that warm, moist air is kinda annoying. Thanks for that post.
latest HGX Disco:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

06Z AVIATION...CF IS NEARING HOU...AFTER STALLING MUCH OF THE
EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST 7Z TO 9Z. LIFR FG
WILL CONTINUE FOR 2-4 MORE HOURS AT LBX AND GLS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS FROM THE SW TO NE IN THE 12Z TO 20Z PD. COULD SEE ISO
TSRA...BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AM HOURS. DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE S TX COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL SEE STRONG N WINDS FRI EVE ...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. 33


What's this mean in English?
Tesla is recently just unveiled it's new model 3, and it sounds great, a price starting at $35 K, after government tax credit, it would come to less than 30 K.

Also, performance and features are still expected to be great despite the much cheaper price, and a range expected over 200 miles.

Link

Time for me to start setting aside money in savings after graduation. I've been really hoping for a great and practical electric car for a while, we need smarter, and better sustainable transportation. And as someone who is passionate about such, I'd like to be part of the solution if I can.
Going to get a little breezy with a few showers.
Also, if you got this from the NWS site, they have links to their abbreviations!

Quoting 95. pureet1948:

latest HGX Disco:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

06Z AVIATION...CF IS NEARING HOU...AFTER STALLING MUCH OF THE
EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST 7Z TO 9Z. LIFR FG
WILL CONTINUE FOR 2-4 MORE HOURS AT LBX AND GLS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS FROM THE SW TO NE IN THE 12Z TO 20Z PD. COULD SEE ISO
TSRA...BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AM HOURS. DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE S TX COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL SEE STRONG N WINDS FRI EVE ...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. 33


What's this mean in English?
Quoting 94. Dakster:

Saw a Mama and Baby Moose on the side of the highway today. Spring has sprung. I'm sure baby bears are right around the corner. One was spotted a couple of weeks ago as we got a warning, but I haven't seen any bears this year, yet.

KOTG - Yeah that warm, moist air is kinda annoying. Thanks for that post.


"In the middle of Winter the tree's are bare and Bear's are hibernating'...

Quoting 94. Dakster:

Saw a Mama and Baby Moose on the side of the highway today. Spring has sprung. I'm sure baby bears are right around the corner. One was spotted a couple of weeks ago as we got a warning, but I haven't seen any bears this year, yet.

KOTG - Yeah that warm, moist air is kinda annoying. Thanks for that post.


Just saw a fisher cat up close at lunch. It was 70 degrees F then. Maybe a thunderstorm today. Looks like 20s and 30s Sunday and Monday with some light snow.
101. MahFL
Quoting 95. pureet1948:

latest HGX Disco:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

06Z AVIATION...CF IS NEARING HOU...AFTER STALLING MUCH OF THE
EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST 7Z TO 9Z. LIFR FG
WILL CONTINUE FOR 2-4 MORE HOURS AT LBX AND GLS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS FROM THE SW TO NE IN THE 12Z TO 20Z PD. COULD SEE ISO
TSRA...BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AM HOURS. DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE S TX COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL SEE STRONG N WINDS FRI EVE ...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. 33


What's this mean in English?


Read the glossary, increase your knowledge :


Glossary



waters rising fast now its over the sea wall up on the grass. NOT. Happy April Fools
Good Morning. Spent the week down in South Florida tending to the aging parents and went to a concert on Wed night in Ft. Lauderdale; saw guitar wizard Robin Trower (Bridge of Sighs) who is now 71 years old and my friend-drummer set up the whole thing. 3rd row seat right in front of Mr. Trower and a meet and greet with him after the show with pictures and autographs..............A night I will always remember; he was a contemporary of Hendrix and a brilliant guitarist who has been my main influence since 75.

Weather wise, it had been raining in Tallahassee for several days when I left on Sunday, it rained in South Florida while I was there until yesterday, and raining again in Tallahassee this morning. Florida has been soaked the past several weeks with typical El Nino rains with more to come today:


%uFFFD%uFFFD%uFFFD
And the big picture for the US today:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...OFFERING OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
GUSTS AND THE RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN
ALABAMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
106. elioe
My guess is, that this is the first image, in which all the 12 runs are with the equatorial Atlantic SST error corrected?



Meanwhile in Finland, we may see almost summer conditions in two weeks!

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
108. vis0
Quoting 102. islander101010:

waters rising fast now its over the sea wall up on the grass. NOT. Happy April Fools
Who  knows one day you might have to "drink" those words.. (wish i was wrong.  If not the delay 'n look the other way game will eventually give-in to one of natures' law of water leveling out.  In time even the "sponge" areas of Earth will be over saturated, break apart and the eventual change to the land under you/future "yous", will be more dramatic.