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Here Comes La Niña--Or Does It? What History, Models, and Experts Tell Us

By: Bob Henson 4:28 PM GMT on March 25, 2016

After a superheated few months, the tropical Pacific is starting to cool down, one of several signs that the memorable El Niño event of 2015-16 is nearing its end. The looming question is whether this blockbuster will be followed by a sequel--which, like most sequels, could pale in comparison--or whether La Niña is waiting in the wings, ready to take the stage for what could be an extended run.

It’s not hard to find evidence of El Niño in decline. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are steadily dropping in and around the benchmark Niño3.4 region and elsewhere over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (Figure 1). After peaking at 3.1°C above average in late November 2015--the highest weekly value on record--the Niño3.4 SSTs were down to 1.7°C above average last week. Other indicators suggest that El Niño is hanging on by its fingernails. Beneath the veneer of warm SSTs, subsurface waters throughout the tropical Pacific have grown increasingly cooler (Figure 2).


Figure 1. Weekly anomalies (departures from seasonal average) in sea surface temperatures for the period March 13-19, 2016. Warm anomalies persisted over the central and eastern tropical Pacific, although less impressive than at their peak several months ago. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.


Figure 2. Vertical cross section of temperatures (top) and anomalies (bottom) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean for the period March 19-23, 2016. Cooler-than-average waters now dominate the top 200 meters (600 feet) of the equatorial Pacific, although the surface layer remains warm. Image credit: TAO Project Office, NOAA/PMEL.


During a strong El Niño event, trade winds weaken, and recurrent periods of westerly wind help push warm water toward the eastern tropical Pacific. Surface winds averaged over a five-day period are now blowing from east to west across the entire tropical Pacific, a sign of rejuvenated trades.

All these indicators line up nicely with the classic mode of decay found in other strong El Niños of the past few decades. According to the official monthly outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, issued on March 10, “A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016.” What’s less certain is what will happen after the Pacific enters a neutral state, assuming that it does.

“I’m going to say there’s a 99.9% chance we see El Niño conditions break down by this summer,” Michael Ventrice (The Weather Company) told me in an email. All of the five analog years since 1950 analyzed by Ventrice and colleagues bring the Pacific into neutral territory (Niño3.4 SSTs within 0.5°C of the seasonal average) by later in the year. Forecast models are in near-universal agreement that neutral conditions will prevail by this summer, and it looks increasingly likely that the tropical Pacific will continue cooling, with La Niña conditions possible by autumn. However, there’s just enough uncertainty to keep forecasters sweating it out.

Springtime obscures the crystal ball
What’s known as the spring predictability barrier makes this the toughest time of the year to anticipate how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will behave. ENSO refers to the coupled atmosphere-ocean process that swings between El Niño and La Niña. About half of the time, neutral conditions prevail, with El Niño and La Niña roughly splitting the other 50% of the time. El Niños have been more frequent overall in recent decades, but La Niñas are more likely to recur for two or three years in a row.


Figure 3. El Niño and La Niña events since 1950, as defined by the Oceanic Niño Index, which tracks the events through three-month rolling averages of sea surface temperatures across the Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific. “Very strong” or “super” El Niño events are those where at least one three-month average is at least 2.0°C above normal. Image credit: Jan Null, Golden Gate Weather Services, using data from NOAA (see the link for a larger version of this graphic).


In tandem with the seasonal cycle across the tropical Pacific, both El Niño and La Niña tend to strengthen toward the end of a calendar year and weaken during the first half of the next year. Thus, it’s easier to project the evolution of an El Niño or La Niña event as it’s taking shape, during the northern fall, than to anticipate what will emerge by the next fall.

Figure 4 (below) demonstrates the spring predictability barrier in all its glory. After being tightly clustered for the next couple of months, the various models diverge drastically by the coming autumn. If there’s a consensus, it’s for a weak La Niña to emerge by the latter half of the year. Several models have a moderately strong La Niña in place as soon as late summer, while a couple of other models bring back El Niño for a return visit by late 2016. It turns out that at least two of the models favoring El Niño (the CCSM4 and CFSv2 models, seen in Figure 4) were being swayed by an implausibly cold Atlantic--the type of initialization problem where unrealistic starting-point data can lead to unorthodox model behavior down the line. As Figure 4 shows, the LDEO model favors El Niño more strongly than any other, and that model is a fairly simple Pacific-only model without any Atlantic initialization.

Update: NOAA is announcing on Friday that an adjustment to the initialization system used for CCSM4 and CFSv2 is being implemented on Monday, addressing the cold bias in the Atlantic Ocean. Importantly, when it tested this adjustment, NOAA found a major shift: "the long-lead forecasts evolved from the current El Niño event into neutral or La Niña conditions during the next 9 months in the Nino3.4 SST plumes." Here's a NOAA technical briefing on the results. The NOAA/CPC outlook issued last week, which factored in the model initialization concerns, called for a roughly 50% chance of La Niña conditions by fall. I wouldn't be surprised to see those odds going up in April.



Figure 4. Projections of various forecast models for the evolution of SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next few months. These forecasts were compiled and released in mid-March. El Niño is in place when SSTs are at least 0.5°C above average for five overlapping three-month periods. La Niña is defined the same way, except that SSTs are below rather than above average. The bottom axis shows abbreviations for three-month intervals (e.g., JJA is June-July-August). Image credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society.


The classic, but not guaranteed, hand-off from El Niño to La Niña
Our physical understanding of ENSO suggests that the models calling for La Niña may indeed be on the right track. Veteran researcher Anthony Barnston (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, or IRI) lays out the science behind the “delayed oscillator theory” in an easy-to-digest ENSO Blog entry from last January. In a nutshell, strong El Niño events trigger two competing forces: eastward-moving features called oceanic Kelvin waves, which straddle the equatorial Pacific, and westward-moving Rossby waves, located on either side of the equator. Passing each other like ships in the night, the Kelvin waves reinforce El Niño, while the Rossby waves head toward Indonesia and then bounce back eastward. At that point, months after their creation, they can lead to subsurface cooling that eventually shifts the system from El Niño toward La Niña.

One might expect that the stronger the El Niño, the stronger the Rossby waves that help lead to its demise. Indeed, Barnston shows that during the NOAA-favored period of most reliable records (1950 to today), stronger El Niño events tend to correlate with cooler SSTs a year later. The strongest events in this NOAA dataset are the “super” El Niño events of 1997-98 and 1982-83, along with a close runner-up, 1972-73. All three were followed by La Niña conditions a year later. (The cooling in 1983-84 was too brief to qualify as a La Niña event, but it was followed by a bona fide La Niña in 1984-85.) Out of the ten moderate or stronger El Niños analyzed by Barnston, six were followed by La Niña conditions a year later—but two were followed by neutrality, and the other two saw a redevelopment of weak to moderate El Niño conditions.


Figure 5. Scatterplot showing the relationship in ENSO states from one year to the next, for every year since 1950 in which an El Niño occurred. Each dot represents a pair of “year 1 vs. year 2” ENSO states. In general, the stronger the El Niño (higher values on the x-axis), the stronger the subsequent La Niña (lower values on the y-axis). The ENSO states here are drawn from Niño3.4 SSTs (the Oceanic Niño Index) for the six overlapping three-month periods from August-October to January-March. Data are not completely in for 2015-16, but this future dot should end up close to 2.0°C on the x axis, which implies that La Niña is historically likely in 2016-17. For more details and a larger version of the graphic, see the associated ENSO Blog post by Anthony Barnston published on Jan. 28, 2016. Image credit: NOAA, courtesy Anthony Barnston.


Forward into the past
WU member Eric Webb (North Carolina State University, @webberweather) has been digging even further back into El Niño history. Over the last few months, Webb has been refining his own Ensemble Oceanic NINO Index, a product that draws on 26 long-term datasets and analyses created by institutions around the world. Stretching back to 1865, Webb’s index identifies “super” El Niños in 1877-78 and 1888-89 as well as 1972-73 (deemed “super” in Webb’s index), 1982-83, and 1997-98. One motivation behind incorporating multiple datasets is to help alleviate some of the issues with older data that have led NOAA/CPC to focus on the post-1950 period in its own analyses, including the historical ENSO dataset shown in Figure 3. Webb has also been working on a confidence index that assesses how well five leading ENSO definitions agree from period to period.

With the help of Webb’s index, the argument for La Niña in 2016-17 gets even stronger. All five of Webb’s “super” events were followed by La Niña events that lasted two to three years. Yet none of the eight strong El Niño events that fell below the “super” threshold (1896-97, 1902-03, 1965-66, 1991-92, 1957-58, 1940-41, 1987-88, and 1930-31) produced multiyear La Niña events. “In fact, many weren't even followed by a La Nina in the subsequent year,” Webb told me. “This is a very intriguing statistic, and it likely highlights the role for properly initializing ENSO intensity with respect to forecasting its behavior beyond the spring predictability barrier, much less a year or two in advance. This also provides a potential future avenue of research for assessing its behavior in specific ENSO scenarios.”

Although Webb’s work has yet to be peer-reviewed, it points in the same direction as other research: a powerful tendency for big La Niñas to follow big El Niños. “Eric’s statement sounds quite reasonable to me,” said IRI’s Barnston. “I don’t think any expert could disagree with it. Given the inherent limit of predictability, there may not be very good low-hanging fruit, but it doesn’t hurt to keep trying.”

The case for El Niño
“A transition to La Niña is not a done deal,” according to Klaus Wolter (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory). Wolter and colleague Michael Timlin (Midwestern Regional Climate Center) developed the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), which employs both oceanic and atmospheric variables and goes back to 1871, providing yet another perspective. In a 2011 paper, Wolter and Timlin found a close relationship between the strength and longevity of La Niña events. The picture gets a bit more complex for El Niño: “super” events typically last 12 to 18 months, while other strong events have actually persisted for more than two years. “I find it interesting that 1930-31, 40-41, and 1991-92 [all strong El Niño years] were followed by long-lived El Niño conditions,” Wolter said in an email.

One more wrinkle to consider is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. As we discussed early last year, El Niño events become more likely when the PDO is in its positive mode, which was the case in the 1980s and 1990s. Now that the PDO has been consistently positive for more than two years, we may have entered a longer-term positive mode, which would favor El Niño more often than La Niña.

The upshot: While current observations show El Niño decaying, and the strength of the 2015-16 event argues for a good chance of La Niña in 2016-17 (conceivably lasting more than a year), it’s still a bit too soon to entirely rule out a repeat visit from El Niño later this year.


Figure 6. The Atlantic hurricane seasons that followed the two most recent “super” El Niño events (1982-83 and 1997-98) are a study in contrasts. The 1983 season (left) was the quietest post-1970 Atlantic season on record in terms of accumulated cyclone energy, with only 4 named storms and 3 hurricanes. The 1998 season (right) produced 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and more than $3 billion in damage, as well as the catastrophic Hurricane Mitch, which killed more than 10,000 people as it decayed over Central America.

Implications for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season
It’s well established that El Niño years tend to suppress tropical cyclone action in the North Atlantic, due to increased upper-level wind shear and other factors, while La Niña tends to favor above-average activity in the North Atlantic. Timing makes a big difference: if a transition to La Niña happens late in the year, it’s less likely to influence the Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast team at Colorado State University led by Phil Klotzbach and William Gray will issue their first outlook for the 2016 Atlantic season on April 14. Klotzbach stresses another key factor now in play alongside El Niño and La Niña--the recent apparent switch toward a cool mode of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which we’ll be discussing in a future post. Here’s what Klotzbach had to say when I asked him about the AMO and other factors leading into the 2016 season:

“The far North Atlantic has been quite cold for about three years now. This cold anomaly especially stands out at present, given how warm the remainder of the globe is due in part to the strong El Niño. When the far North Atlantic is cold, it tends to force wind and pressure patterns that then cool the tropical Atlantic. We've seen a significant cooling of the eastern subtropical Atlantic in recent weeks [see Figure 7 below], and there is the potential that these cold anomalies could propagate into the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. If this occurs, there is the potential that the hurricane season may not be particularly active.”

We’ll be back with our next post on Monday. In the meantime, have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


Figure 7. Trend in sea-surface temperatures across the eastern tropical Atlantic for early March 2016 as compared to January 2016. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD, courtesy Phil Klotzbach.

El Niño La Niña ENSO

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

If memory serves me, Mitch was so powerful, it sent waves into the GOM.

Thanks Mr. Henson!
Why did they add a "s" to the address here? https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=3272#comment_0

When one clicks on the yellow wubot new entry for this one, one gets a wu outside prompt ?

Also, why did they add a "s" to the radar addys as well ?


Thanks, several members have been asking about an El-Nino update. Hopefully, this will answer a lot of their questions.
Heavy SHOWER here at zip 10016 reminds me og BO Bill as winds are whipping as if tropically induced sheets OF SHOWERS (not heavy rains) being produced...i wonder if its that stream that spewed northward what that quasi blob formed in the Fl panhandle, will post much later satellite imagery of that.
Heavy showers BEGAN:: ~6 min ago on my clock that's 1238PM EDT, strongest lasted 2 mins ~ a min ago. NOT read this blogbyte still finishing the last blogbytes cmmnt reads
Tampa is about to get drilled. Storms should work their way over to Orlando around 3/3:30pm. Surprised the SPC hasn't issued a severe weather watch for C FL.



Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1022 am EDT Friday Mar 25 2016

Morning update...
a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
spread across the eastern Gulf of Mexico...with middle/upper clouds
spreading across much of northern Florida. This will complicate
the forecast through the afternoon hours...as surface heating will
become delayed where greater clouds are present...with substantial
heating elsewhere. Morning upper air observations showed the
presence of a weak stable layer at the surface...leftover from
last nights convectively-drive outflow that pushed all the way
down to near Naples this morning. As surface heating overcomes
weak surface inversion...expect chances for showers and a few
storms to increase through the afternoon. The more widespread
activity looks to remain over interior portions of the
peninsula...with spottier activity elsewhere.



With existing lack of showers/storms...opted to decrease probability of precipitation 
over a good part of the peninsula through around noon.
Thereafter...with surface heating...scattered showers and storms
should become more likely...especially from Polk and Highlands
counties eastward. As middle/upper flow remains fairly strong...and
abundant moisture is present...there remains a very marginal
chance of a stray strong to severe storm...primarily over the
interior. Should a stray severe storm develop...strong gusty winds
and hail may accompany it.

With greater cloud cover over northern Florida...adjusted maximum
temperatures down a couple of degrees...and maintained higher probability of precipitation as
remnants of Gulf activity continues to drift northeast across the
Nature Coast.
Possibly a lot of wind damage across C FL as this severe line rolls thru. Friend in Clearwater say continuous lightning just offshore and moving quickly toward the coast.
Swirl Watching..
ASCAT just passed over.




Just finished updating a blog on the storm damage, including some videos. The craft fairs and such have been devastated by one wind event after another with this El Nino. This storm has been no exception.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 415 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 415 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016
Stop press! NOAA has just announced an adjustment to the system used to initialize the CFSv2 and CCSM4/COLA models. This adjustment addresses the cold bias in the Atlantic Ocean SSTs. With the adjustment in place, CFSv2 shifts from its projection of El Nio by late 2016 toward a La Nia outcome instead. See the "Update" paragraph just added to the post. I've included a link to a full PowerPoint briefing from NOAA.

This substantially raises my confidence that we'll be seeing La Nia this fall--but keeping in mind that it ain't over till it's over!
“'I find it interesting that 1930-31, 40-41, and 1991-92 [all strong El Niño years] were followed by long-lived El Niño conditions,' Wolter said in an email." (should that be "La Niña"?) Very interesting analysis. However, I am still wondering how the significantly increased SSTs world-wide are influencing the apparent strength of ESNO -- if compared with the historical baseline temps it looks impressive but if compared with recent years SSTs and deeper temps due to climate change, perhaps the "strength" isn't so great?
Very steamy down here in S.W. Florida. I've got 83 degrees, 72% humidity, with a dewpoint of 72 degrees at the house.

Here's the condition at the airport.
edited..
.
Unlike previous squall lines, this line seems to be holding together as it moves across the Tampa area.
The looming question is whether this blockbuster will be followed by a sequel--which, like most sequels, could pale in comparison--

That's some nifty writing Mr. Henson, I chuckled.

I'd have to look at when the 1998 La Nina started to show itself, but maybe we accumulate most of 2016's ACE later in the year. Bonnie as a B storm occurred in August, which is pretty late and the most intense was Mitch in October.
20. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (final product is not a public product)

NOTE:: showing how observing what seems like nothing turns into something.

NOTE:: a longer loop i'll post tonite on this blogbyte or whatever is the latest on WU's Dr. Masters/ Mr. Henson  WoW! (exclamation would be a lightning strike over a rain drop) (World of Weather)

TRy to follow written in haste gotta bathe father.
opps 4got yo post the flick, 45mins layer, here



WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/jm9EkCedwAs (org 727x305)

 

Spin-A 36 hrs ago is shown in a VIA embedded in that comment...

 

(link on comment takes own to that zilly comment, here is ONLY the VID)

 

...by some nut making a zilly as to HHjoe fictionally creating a large neon sign in trying to attract moisture plumes towards southern California.

 

At the start of VID in that comment's VID you see a prominent swirl at 140w,20N (quite a bit SE of San Diego), that is spin-A.

 

Spin-B formed SSE of the spin-A swirl and spin-B quietly rides the southern Jet stream within the injected high octane ENSO-El Nio brand fuel. (remember ESSO)

Spin-B emerges in the GoMx and becomes attracted towards the fronts pull, (add the sound of as clean hard billiard break) as some ENSo fuel interacts with southern end of the front.
Quoting 13. BobHenson:

Stop press! NOAA has just announced an adjustment to the system used to initialize the CFSv2 and CCSM4/COLA models. This adjustment addresses the cold bias in the Atlantic Ocean SSTs. With the adjustment in place, CFSv2 shifts from its projection of El Ni�o by late 2016 toward a La Ni�a outcome instead. See the "Update" paragraph just added to the post. I've included a link to a full PowerPoint briefing from NOAA.

This substantially raises my confidence that we'll be seeing La Ni�a this fall--but keeping in mind that it ain't over till it's over!


I think that there's something wrong in the last 2 sentences of the update.
Very mean looking cell a couple hundred miles out in the GOM. It must be very strong to show up that well hundreds of miles from the radar site.
We are seriously looking at the mechanisms behind ENSO (for equatorial ocean) and QBO (for equatorial atmosphere) over at the
Azimuth Project physics forum.

By applying some heavy-duty signal processing techniques, we are figuring out what underlying mechanisms can lead to predictable behaviors. This is an example of a model for QBO:



This is an excellent fit, based on forcing from lunisolar tides, but it is completely at odds with the current theory proposed by Richard Lindzen. But of course, Lindzen is losing scientific credibility fast with his contrarian AGW views.

We are also making progress with modeling ENSO but the amount of noise in the signal makes it more of a challenge to root out the forcing mechanisms. We have been looking at the “delayed oscillator theory” and others that Jeff mentioned in the article above. Anybody interested is free to register and contribute to the forum. We are not climate science insiders, but interested in contributing ideas from other scientific disciplines.

twitter: @whut


The NOAA/CPC outlook issued last week called for a roughly 50% chance of El Niño conditions by fall.

I believe that is meant to be La Niña.

Really great blog with a lot of information and good news about the correction of the cold anomalies in CFSv2 and CCSM4/COLA models.
Yay thanks for the update
Quoting 24. Envoirment:

The NOAA/CPC outlook issued last week called for a roughly 50% chance of El Niño conditions by fall.

I believe that is meant to be La Niña.

Really great blog with a lot of information and good news about the correction of the cold anomalies in CFSv2 and CCSM4/COLA models.


Fixed! Thanks to you and DCSwithunderscores for the catch, and for the kind words.
Quoting 24. Envoirment:

The NOAA/CPC outlook issued last week called for a roughly 50% chance of El Niño conditions by fall.

I believe that is meant to be La Niña.

Really great blog with a lot of information and good news about the correction of the cold anomalies in CFSv2 and CCSM4/COLA models.


Yes, I think that's a good catch. The last time I checked NOAA was showing "La Nina" conditions at 50% for this Fall.
Quoting 13. BobHenson:

Stop press! NOAA has just announced an adjustment to the system used to initialize the CFSv2 and CCSM4/COLA models. This adjustment addresses the cold bias in the Atlantic Ocean SSTs. With the adjustment in place, CFSv2 shifts from its projection of El Nino by late 2016 toward a La Nina outcome instead. See the "Update" paragraph just added to the post. ...

Should be a sad Good Friday for a certain person in here ;-)
And thanks for the thorough blog entry, Bob. Moreover, great acknowledgement for our webberweather!
29. SLU
Garbage in, garbage out.

Quoting 18. Sfloridacat5:

Unlike previous squall lines, this line seems to be holding together as it moves across the Tampa area.



Yeah it's likely because there is better lapse rates available for once, and coastal waters are starting to warm up. That's why often in the summer, coastal waters tend to create the exact opposite effect when activity is moving west to east, rainfall tends to be enhanced on the coast, since the shallow coastal waters that often weaken eastward moving activity earlier in the year, help strengthen activity in the summer since the coastal waters are often relatively warmer then the deeper ocean areas during the summer.

Really though, this whole year, lapse rates have been unusually weak with most of the weather systems, hence the lack of lightning. This batch of thunderstorms had a lot of lightning. A better thermodynamic environment can help make up for cooler shelf waters and departing upper support.
I wanted to switch radar loops to get a better look at the outflow boundary heading south from the Tampa area. This could be a focus for new storms to the south of the boundary.
But it could also decrease the chance of stronger storms developing in the areas to the north of the boundary due to the cooler air decreasing the instability.
Also, heads up in the Orlando area. I can picture hundreds of golfers running for the club house as we speak.
Sky is very ominous to my SW right now.

South Florida’s mayors face reality of rising seas and climate change

Once again, it was the mayors taking on climate change. It was the mayors talking green energy, carbon footprints and the urgent need to rebuild Florida’s vulnerable infrastructure before an encroaching sea overwhelms seaside communities.

And not a governor in sight.

On Wednesday, mayors from Miami, Pinecrest, South Miami, Key Biscayne, Cutler Bay and Palmetto Bay (along with Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava) gathered at the Pinecrest Gardens to embrace the Sierra Club’s 100 percent clean municipal energy goal. One after another, they talked, and proudly, about commitments to solar power, electric cars, charging stations, walkable streets, bike paths, smart growth, wetland preservation, energy efficiency. They spoke of redesigning sewers, drainage canals, water systems, streets to prepare for rising sea levels.

And not a climate change denier in the bunch.

Read more here: Link
There some great pictures of the squall line earlier as it came into the Tampa Bay area, my mom called and said it was an impressive show of wind and heavy rain and also a lot of lightning:



Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

Sky is very ominous to my SW right now.




It weakened earlier a bit after passing east of Tampa, but seems to be getting stronger again, it's developing a bit of a mesoscale vortex as well.

There is reports of roof damage to homes north of Tampa in Pasco County last night an area where no warnings were issued. It must have occurred in between radar scans, which happens sometimes. This line of storms that has come in off the gulf has been near severe for a while but never quite there.
Quoting 35. Jedkins01:

There some great pictures of the squall line earlier as it came into the Tampa Bay area, my mom called and said it was an impressive show of wind and heavy rain and also a lot of lightning:






Awesome images of the squall line.
Quoting 36. Jedkins01:



It weakened earlier a bit aster passing east of Tampa, but seems to be getting stronger again, it's developing a bit of a mesoscale vortex as well.


Yeah, a little rotating comma head to the disturbance moving across central Florida.
I'm going to bet against the grain and call for no strong La Nina this year :) Incredible thunderstorms over Kaua'i last night! Heavy flooding and non-stop thunder and lightening through the witching hours...
College of DuPage Meteorology
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No severe warnings in past 3 hours


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 415 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 415 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 105 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 105 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016
Quoting 40. EyewallPaul:

I'm going to bet against the grain and call for no strong La Nina this year :) Incredible thunderstorms over Kaua'i last night! Heavy flooding and non-stop thunder and lightening through the witching hours...


Don't know about a "strong" La Nina.

From the above blog,
"Forecast models are in near-universal agreement that neutral conditions will prevail by this summer, and it looks increasingly likely that the tropical Pacific will continue cooling, with La Nina conditions possible by autumn. However, there is just enough uncertainty to keep forecasters sweating it out. "
No mention of a "strong La Nina."
Looks like the system is going to hold itself together all the way across the state.
Outflow boundary is even more noticeable moving south.
EMC found that there was no Atlantic cold bias in the initial
states as compared to current operational CFSv2. The long lead
forecasts evolved from the current El Nino event into neutral or
La Nina conditions during the next 9 months in the Nino3.4 SST
plumes.

Based on the positive results of the CFSv2 tests and the
severity of the cold bias anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean, NCEP
will implement this change outside of the normal upgrade
process. Users do not need to take any action and will continue
receiving data as they do today.
Are we sure this El Nino,La Nina thing is actually real?

It could be a Hoax.

The data could be manipulated to determine anything.

Where do these Scientists get their grant Money?

Al Gore?

It's a conspiracy maybe?


: )





BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
257 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...  
NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...  
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM EDT  
 
* AT 256 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM DOCTOR PHILLIPS TO NEAR KISSIMMEE TO NEAR CAMPBELL...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ORLANDO...KISSIMMEE...TITUSVILLE...SAINT CLOUD AND COCOA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT  
AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.  
 

Noticed that there is an air quality alert issued for Saturday, tomorrow, in Houston for ozone. It is such a beautiful day today, I got to wondering what it meant. That turns out to be a little bit of a hassle but finally found some small print that led to a good web page from the NWS. It had the following interesting question and answer regarding ozone around New York city, which surely applies to Houston.
COMMENT/QUESTION: I found this service surfing around your website. Could someone please explain how the air quality in NYC could be so much better than the rest of the Northeast?

RESPONSE PROVIDED BY:
Ken Schere, Chief
Atmospheric Model Development Branch, Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division
NOAA Research and EPA’s National Exposure Research Laboratory

By looking at ozone, it may seem as though the air quality is better in the middle of NYC than elsewhere around it. This is misleading though. Ozone is produced through a complex set of chemical reactions in the atmosphere. It needs the starting ingredients of nitrogen dioxide and hydrocarbons to make the reactions happen. These gases are emitted in copious amounts from urban areas, such as NYC. One usually finds higher ozone in a downwind direction from the urban area, since it takes a few hours for the chemical reactions to occur and form higher ozone concentrations. So the pollutant gases emitted within NYC may cause higher ozone to form a few hours downwind, such as in southern CT or Long Island . However, if the winds are calm, the ozone-forming reactions will occur closer to the urban source areas and cause ozone buildup in the urban cores.

A complicating factor is that one of the precursor gases emitted in urban areas, nitrogen oxide, also depletes ozone. The effect is most dramatic in the evening and overnight hours when there is little or no sunlight. The net effect of these chemical and transport processes often causes the ozone concentrations within the core of large urban areas to be lower than the surrounding areas. However the air is not "cleaner" here even if the ozone concentrations are lower. The urban core is bathed in the ozone precursor gases, which themselves can be irritating or in some cases, toxic. A host of other pollutants, including fine particles, are also released in the urban areas. And under conditions of light winds and stagnation, ozone too can build up within the urban cores.
That storm system was crazy looking coming into town. Had a few power flickers as it hit. Saw a few pea size hail for a moment.
Quoting 35. Jedkins01:

There some great pictures of the squall line earlier as it came into the Tampa Bay area, my mom called and said it was an impressive show of wind and heavy rain and also a lot of lightning:






I was right in that storm, it looked really ominous coming on shore. Good storm but nothing severe.
storm was no big deal this a way. i did save the kids giant ball from entering the banana river.
Quoting 45. Patrap:

Are we sure this El Nino,La Nina thing is actually real?

It could be a Hoax.

The data could be manipulated to determine anything.

Where do these Scientists get their grant Money?

Al Gore?

It's a conspiracy maybe?


: )








Could be something to it, Pat. You notice how all these systems seem to come from the "left"



Is that a fire to your E Gro, stays stationary and plumes w/ the wind? :) Speaking of fire, did he double hockey sticks freeze over, GnR including StL in the tour on 25th anny of Riverport Riot? Edit: 5th anny of Good Friday tornado that damaged Lambert Int'l. terminal and some N county homes and biz's.

Supposed to hit low 50s but hanging in mid 40s in S C IL, so doubt we make it. Dew pt in low 30s, press around 30". Saw the little white flowers pop in my yard, if we get rain Sun may need to see if any little grey morels popping already. Blue bells come out I know they'll be there.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 7 minHace 7 minutos Ver traducción
Word from @bhensonweather - CFS upgrade coming Monday that fixes initialization problem of Atlantic SSTs. Hello Niña

I can't wait for monday
Quoting 53. JRRP7:

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 7 minHace 7 minutos Ver traduccin
Word from @bhensonweather - CFS upgrade coming Monday that fixes initialization problem of Atlantic SSTs. Hello Nia

I can't wait for monday




The yellow line (model average) will likely be pushed downward a bit, with the CFSv2 & COLA CCSM4 being corrected, for the early-April forecast. That'll likely increase the percentages for La Nina during the summer/fall:

Have a "Good" Friday everyone.
 Thanks for the interesting post Mr. Henson....
A real bad thunderstorm in SE Broward in NE Dade county FL. Some of the loudest I've heard in a while.
No rain today here in Fort Myers. It was just a warm and humid day. All the rain was either to the north or to my south today. Maybe we'll see some night time storms get going with all this left over heat.
I've got 81 degrees with 80% humidity (74 dewpoint) right now (very steamy outside).

Riverside Airport (KRAL) 80F, Humidity 19%, Dewpoint 34°F
Here is that "implausibly cold Atlantic" that the CFS has been initializing off the coast of Brazil, leading to potentially erroneous modeled conditions in its forecasts. On the left is CDAS Sea Surface temperature anomalies for the South Atlantic for March 25, 2016, while on the right is the CFSv2 SST anomaly forecast for April 2016, showing the fairly striking (and erroneous) mass of implausibly cold water mentioned by Mr. Henson.


Well the start of Hurricane Season is 67 days away, and we will soon see what it has to offer, all we know at this time is that El-Nino is fading, and the waters are getting cooler.

Yeeesh.Allergy medicine cannot work fast enough!
Spring has really sprung now, lots of trees have white and pink blossoms, and the tiny green leaves are showing on others. It is was a pretty nice Spring afternoon.
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:


Yeeesh.Allergy medicine cannot work fast enough!
"Tree pollen counts way up there today. HIGH at 892 grains per cubic meter of air"-CWG.
So I got up this morning and emptied the rain gauge which was overflowing at 5 inches since yesterday. Som storms went through about 3 or so but not as much rain, maybe a quarter inch or so. Near airport in Orlando.
Quoting 51. Grothar:



Could be something to it, Pat. You notice how all these systems seem to come from the "left"






it must be the dang commies in Washington with their geoengineering, trying to pollute minds with subliminal messages.
Flood Watch in effect until 2 am EDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida... including the
following areas... coastal Palm Beach... inland Palm Beach and
Metro Palm Beach.

* Until 2 am EDT Saturday

* many areas have received 3 to 4 inches of rain this afternoon
with additional heavy showers and thunderstorms expected to
produce 2 to 4 inches of rain this evening and early tonight.

* This additional heavy rainfall may lead to significant flooding
of streets... urban areas... and low lying flood prone areas near
small canals or creeks through this evening.
Quoting 3. Patrap:

Why did they add a "s" to the address here? https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=3272#comment_0

When one clicks on the yellow wubot new entry for this one, one gets a wu outside prompt ?

Also, why did they add a "s" to the radar addys as well ?



s=secure http, it is encrypted.
Quoting 68. guygee:

s=secure http, it is encrypted.


Well duh, yeah,,that we ALL know I'm fairly sure.

I can't feel the server near as well with the "s" though

If that's encrypted for them, well,..it is IBM's toy now.

Thanx anyway

Have a Happy Easter too

: )



As rhe "Keeper" says :
Faster and Faster

“It’s worth taking a minute to appreciate the sheer scale of what China is doing in solar right now. In 2015, the country added more than 15 gigawatts of new solar capacity, surpassing Germany as the world’s largest solar power market. China now has 43.2 gigawatts of solar capacity, compared with38.4 gigawatts in Germany and 27.8 in the United States.

According to new projections, it seems that trend is going to continue. Under its 13th Five Year Plan, China will nearly triple solar capacity by 2020, adding 15 to 20 gigawatts of solar capacity each year for the next five years, according to Nur Bekri, director of the National Energy Administration. That will bring the country’s installed solar power to more than 140 gigawatts. To put that in context, world solar capacity topped 200 gigawatts last year and is expected to reach 321 gigawatts by the end of 2016.”


Link
Hat tip to Jeremy at the Scribbler

UK:

“Dyson is developing an electric car at its headquarters in Wiltshire with help from public money, according to government documents.

The company, which makes a range of products that utilise the sort of highly efficient motors needed for an electric car such as vacuum cleaners, hand dryers and bladeless fans, last year refused to rule out rumours it was building one.

But on Wednesday, the government appeared to have accidentally disclosed Dyson is working on one, along with other big companies outside of the automotive industry, such as Apple.”


Link
Quoting 51. Grothar:



Could be something to it, Pat. You notice how all these systems seem to come from the "left"






One of items that came out of Belgium this week was that 2 of the bombers had 12 hours of recordings of a nuclear engineer ‘s comings and goings. My personal thinking they were up to kidnapping, and extortion. But who knows what they were thinking .

Two excellent articles on solar from Jeremy reminded me once again that not one solar plant will ever explode , melt down, and have to have a priesthood for thousands of years watching over it, and spending God’ knows how much money.

And as the Temple of Karnak shows, when the money dries up the priests stop coming to work.



The Rolling Stones are about to play for 500,000 Cubans. If anyone under estimates the power of art, and music think again.
Entries by Dr. James Hansen

What You Need to Know About the Irreparable Harm of Climate Change
(145) Comments | Posted March 22, 2016 | 8:58 AM


We made a video discussing some of the main points in our "Ice Melt" paper, which is about to be published in Atmos. Phys. Chem.:





Quoting 51. Grothar:



Could be something to it, Pat. You notice how all these systems seem to come from the "left"






Wow
Talk about baiting the opposition into ban territory type responses. Although I must admit a good chuckle. Coming from the Right (I must forward the theme) the nasty destructive hurricanes seem to come from the Right (ie East).
What is the D storm this year? I hope we do not make it to the T storm. That is for sure.
Quoting 77. QueensWreath:



Wow
Talk about baiting the opposition into ban territory type responses. Although I must admit a good chuckle. Coming from the Right (I must forward the theme) the nasty destructive hurricanes seem to come from the Right (ie East).
What is the D storm this year? I hope we do not make it to the T storm. That is for sure.


Danielle I believe. Same list as in 2004 and 2010 (sans Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Igor and Tomas).
79. vis0

Quoting 29. SLU:

Garbage in, garbage out.




Darn dumping of ice coffee drinks
(as was done to dump coffee beans)
causing the centrl ATL to get cool
reading ...no? not that, but the
Spring
predictability
barrier (last of   3  links  leads to  a  PDF)
Let me think if it makes sense................
............Predictability Barrier...yup, there it goes again,and i thought i knew it all?
CREDIT:: (static spring) http://www.partinfo.co.uk/articles/81...anything brewing on either USofA coast?, stay tuned to find out. + (BONUS!) we might get reports of other country's coastal activities.
80. vis0
In staying on the blogbyte topic...

...Grothar?
Quoting 69. Patrap:



Well duh, yeah,,that we ALL know I'm fairly sure.

I can't feel the server near as well with the "s" though

If that's encrypted for them, well,..it is IBM's toy now.

Thanx anyway

Have a Happy Easter too

: )





OK, thanks Pat. You too.
P.S. Just making sure we are on the same socket (why ask a question if you already know the answer?):

"Instead of HyperText Transfer Protocol (HTTP), this website uses HyperText Transfer Protocol Secure (HTTPS).

Using HTTPS, the computers agree on a "code" between them, and then they scramble the messages using that "code" so that no one in between can read them. This keeps your information safe from hackers.

They use the "code" on a Secure Sockets Layer (SSL), sometimes called Transport Layer Security (TLS) to send the information back and forth."
The "code", the "code"...
If you're in northern MS and west-central TN, be safe on Easter. Though no lamb 'bobs on the grill for Easter would be a downer.

Quoting 1. Patrap:

If memory serves me, Mitch was so powerful, it sent waves into the GOM.




That is correct. It did send waves into the GOM. Now, consider the possibility of a Mitch-like storm heading to Houston this September. What are the ramifications of that?
Quoting 87. win1gamegiantsplease:

If you're in northern MS and west-central TN, be safe on Easter. Though no lamb 'bobs on the grill for Easter would be a downer.



I think you google "dog peeing on fire hydrant" and something might catch your eye. Granted I'm 24 so I might have an edge on the pewter, though compared to my dad I'm a bonafide digitard.


The sarcasm went very far over your head... But that's OK, because I know Ped and Gro got it.
Quoting 89. Dakster:



The sarcasm went very far over your head... But that's OK, because I know Ped and Gro got it.


Not quite, that's just my sense of humor. I'm that fun guy at parties.
The clean clear clip why we all love the Stones -

The Rolling Stones in Concert 1964

This one is pefect
Early morning storms for the FL peninsula? Or just another loop-current enhanced fake-out?
Quoting 77. QueensWreath:



Wow
Talk about baiting the opposition into ban territory type responses. Although I must admit a good chuckle. Coming from the Right (I must forward the theme) the nasty destructive hurricanes seem to come from the Right (ie East).
What is the D storm this year? I hope we do not make it to the T storm. That is for sure.


Pretty sure it's Tobias, or something to that degree.
The clean clear clip why we all love the Stones -

The Rolling Stones in Concert 1964

This one is pefect
100. JRRP7
Quoting 100. JRRP7:




That doesn't look like a good prediction for a La NIna...
Quoting 100. JRRP7:




Good morning. On Monday March 28 at 06z it will be fixed.


Early April eh? Many values are lower than normal February minimums, right on my average of 14F.

The high temps from the 3rd seem to lack credulity also.







If the Atlantic is indeed as cold as they say it might be with a LA Nina event later this summer, this would prove interesting in terms of storm development. I can see why meteorologists have such a hard time sometimes with predicting hurricane seasons at the beginning of the year when the pieces of the puzzle don't exactly fit right. This could also explain why there's more agreesive patterns in severe weather during El Nino in the South/Midwest regional areas as well. If one area is hit you can be sure that another area is to be affected by the oscillating patterns in our atmosphere somehow someway. Very interesting article..
My analysis of Winter 2015-16 is almost complete! I just need to choose a theme song for the entire winter. Here are your options.

Captain Borg
Kalimbia
Fatal Decision\Auto Destruct
First Attack
Star Trek The Motion Picture Main Theme
Life is a Dream
Never Gonna Give You Up

I think I should go with Captain Borg, but what do y'all think?
Quoting 1. Patrap:

If memory serves me, Mitch was so powerful, it sent waves into the GOM.




You are right! Powerful CAT5 Hurricane Mitch sent huge waves into the Gulf of Mexico. There was some coastal flooding reported on parts of Dauphin Island, AL. The month before Mitch, Hurricane Georges had already caused a lot of damage along the central Gulf Coast. The huge waves caused by Mitch, helped uncover thousands of seashells along Dauphin Island beaches! 1998 was a very active Atlantic hurricane season - following the powerful El Nino 1997.
Dear sweet, kind, loveable, furry, snuggly MODS -

The wu-mail flag is NOT working. Hasn't worked in a few weeks, not dependably.

So we should NOT GET BANNED if we need to tell someone- "Hey so-and-so, you've got WU-MAIL"

Thanks, Aqua


It was dry for two weeks, but after the rain the daffodils quickly blossomed, and just in time for Easter, too.
Happy Easter everybody. :-)
Quoting 110. aquak9:

Dear sweet, kind, loveable, furry, snuggly MODS -

The wu-mail flag is NOT working. Hasn't worked in a few weeks, not dependably.

So we should NOT GET BANNED if we need to tell someone- "Hey so-and-so, you've got WU-MAIL"

Thanks, Aqua

Someone sent me some new mail and I didn't see the orange envelope either.Must be a software glitch.
Quoting 88. pureet1948:



That is correct. It did send waves into the GOM. Now, consider the possibility of a Mitch-like storm heading to Houston this September. What are the ramifications of that?


Uhhh....the power would go out in Houston?


Took this photo of Egyptian gooses three days ago at Rhine in Mainz. First time I've spotted those gooses which are an invasive species in Germany. And, dang, at the same place there was another one: a nutria, invasive in Germany as well. Folks walking by thought it was a beaver ...



Here a short youtube video of that day.
Thanks for the shoutout Bob, I really appreciate it, it was interesting to see what one of the founders of the NINO 3.4 index (Anthony G. Barnston) had to say about my ENS-ONI index. Link.

I think its worth mentioning how crucial the CFSv2's initialization of the SSTs off the west coast of Brazil are from a historical perspective. Using my ENS-ONI index & subtracting the differences between the peak ENS-ONI value during a NINO from what was observed in its subsequent year & from NINO with the warmest vs the coolest succeeding ENSO years, note that during strong-Super NINOs, an anomalously cooler subtropical south Atlantic tends to precede years that observe an unusually dampened &/or no transition to a La Nina. As the sample size of NINOs wrt intensity broadens, the difference in the initialization of Pacific SSTs becomes larger & the phase of the AMO changes, however, the cool SST anomaly west of brazil is quasi-stationary in all of the composites. That's really interesting...



Strong-Super NINOs




Moderate-Strong-Super NINOs



All NINOs


Here are a few published papers I recently came across which are likely very pertinent to the ongoing Super NINO event

"Reinspecting two types of El Nino: a new pair of Nino Indices for improving real-time ENSO monitoring" (Feb 2016) Hu et al
Link

"Super El Nino" (doctoral thesis) Li-Chao Hong (2016)
Link

"What hindered the El Nino pattern in 2014?" (Aug 2015)
Min et al Link
Quoting 114. barbamz:
And, dang, at the same place there was another one: a nutria, invasive in Germany as well. Folks walking by thought it was a beaver ...
You should talk to Patrap - I'm sure he has some good recipes for nutria - a serious invasive critter in his region.

Quoting 116. Xulonn:

You should talk to Patrap - I'm sure he has some good recipes for nutria - a serious invasive critter in his region.

Thanks, Xulonn, lol. I looked up the nutria when Pat had one as his avatar a short time ago. So I immediately knew this week what animal I'm looking at. And I was a bit sorry for the lonely guy. Guess the nutria was waiting for some food being passed by the humans ... ;-) German Wikipedia says climate isn't favorable for a heavy propagation of nutrias in our part of the world - yet, I may add.

Edit:
Found this in an article from 2015 about invasive species in my town Mainz and its hinterland:
"The nutria, a South American Water Rat popular for its fur in the 1920s and '30s, has settled well in Rhineland-Palatinate. It seems to do no harm. The cute little animals are even considered local attraction, as in the municipality Bobenheim-Roxheim Worms [a bit upstream from Mainz]. They are very tame and walkers have their fun attracting them with vegetables and apples." Found more articles from other little towns though where it's already forbidden to feed the nutrias inmid of the towns as they damage the banks of little creeks.
We've already been quite wet the last couple days with 1.5 so far since Thursday night, now we are expecting a drenching on top of that, possibly 4 inches between now and Sunday evening with locally higher totals:



Last night there was a loud chorus of frogs, they'll be happy to know a lot more is on the way.
124. beell
It's Frazil Ice Season in Yosemite.

Yosemite Nature Notes Video-Frazil Ice

"When the water surface begins to lose heat rapidly, the water becomes supercooled. Turbulence, caused by strong winds or flow from a river, will mix the supercooled water throughout its entire depth. The supercooled water will already be encouraging the formation of small ice crystals (frazil ice) and the crystals get taken to the bottom of the water body. Ice generally floats, but due to frazil ice's small size relative to current speeds, it has an ineffective buoyancy and can be carried to the bottom very easily.

Through a process called secondary nucleation, the crystals quickly increase in number, and because of its supercooled surrounding, the crystals will continue to grow. Sometimes, the concentration is estimated to reach one million ice crystals per cubic meter..."
wikipedia.org

Or if you prefer;

International Association for Hydraulic Research
Working Group on Thermal Regimes
Report on Frazil Ice
I'm hoping we see another cold front pass through my area.
Quoting 124. beell:

It's Frazil Ice Season in Yosemite.

Yosemite Nature Notes Video-Frazil Ice

"When the water surface begins to lose heat rapidly, the water becomes supercooled. Turbulence, caused by strong winds or flow from a river, will mix the supercooled water throughout its entire depth. The supercooled water will already be encouraging the formation of small ice crystals (frazil ice) and the crystals get taken to the bottom of the water body. Ice generally floats, but due to frazil ice's small size relative to current speeds, it has an ineffective buoyancy and can be carried to the bottom very easily.

Through a process called secondary nucleation, the crystals quickly increase in number, and because of its supercooled surrounding, the crystals will continue to grow. Sometimes, the concentration is estimated to reach one million ice crystals per cubic meter..."
wikipedia.org

Or if you prefer;

International Association for Hydraulic Research
Working Group on Thermal Regimes
Report on Frazil Ice


That was a beautiful video, makes me want to get in the car and go on a road trip
Quoting 116. Xulonn:

You should talk to Patrap - I'm sure he has some good recipes for nutria - a serious invasive critter in his region.




It seems that nutria are nutritious.
Fish kill in Florida: 'Heartbreaking images' seen for miles Link

CNN) -- Florida may be the fishing capital of the world, but you'd never know it from the latest scenes around the state's Indian River Lagoon.

Usually idyllic beaches, waterways and estuaries near the massive, biodiverse ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast are littered with scores of dead, rotting fish; an estimated hundreds of thousands of them are floating belly up in brackish, polluted water as far as the eye can see.

- Using our app? CLICK HERE to watch video

"The heartbreaking images can be seen for miles," said Mike Conner, who has been fishing the area since the 1970s. "All up and down the coast, it's the same story, and it could get worse before it gets better."

But the devastation isn't merely what is visible on the surface; it runs far deeper.

El Nino has soaked Florida recently, even during its usual "dry season."

In January, parts of central Florida received triple the amount of rain they normally do for the month. All that rainwater eventually made its way into estuaries via urbanized neighborhoods, picking up fertilizer and other pollutants along the way.

But that's not all.

Temperatures were warmer than usual during the winter, allowing a toxic algae bloom and brown tide to deplete the water of oxygen.

Ed Garland, a spokesman for the St. John River Water Management District, said officials can't determine the effect from the brown tide on the seagrass yet since the water is too cloudy. In 2011, more than half of the seagrass reportedly died off, and there are still damaged areas from that die-off.

These scenes are no doubt jarring to the eyes -- and not to mention the nose -- but state environmental officials said they have happened before.

"Fish kills happen all the time," said Kelly Richmond of the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute. "This is a massive kill, but there are fish kills all over the state."

However, Richmond conceded, "We have had brown tide there before but nothing to this extent."

The impact extends beyond the shores of the Indian River Lagoon -- comprised of the Mosquito, Banana River and Indian River lagoons -- and into the pocketbooks of Floridians, especially those in the state's two most profitable industries: tourism and fishing.

"Our oysters are dead, seagrasses are dead," said Conner, the fisherman. "It (will be) hard to recover. You never fully recover."

CNN's Kevin Conlon and John Couwels contributed to this report.
Quoting 111. ChiThom:



It was dry for two weeks, but after the rain the daffodils quickly blossomed, and just in time for Easter, too.
Happy Easter everybody. :-)


Tom,

the bark on the tree looks like an owl.
We are getting a surprise amount of lightning and gusty winds for convection embedded in a large rain shield. Usually this type of convection usually just produces heavy rain due to lower instability and lack of heating. We are getting some good lightning here, even a few booming CG strikes. It's making for a more exciting day than these type of rain events usually are.
Big Sugar in Florida is killing the estuaries.

Sad, Profit over Nature will bite one on the butt in time.

On Florida's Massive Fish Kills, Voters Are Responsible
03/23/2016 07:37 am ET | Updated 2 days ago


If you child is running a fever, there's no mystery what to do. You make the child rest and take every necessary step to bring the child's fever down. Entrusting Florida's waters to reckless and ignorant elected officials is exactly the same as parental malpractice. It is like locking a child in a car parked at a mall parking lot while the parent goes shopping.

There is only one excuse for forgetting to take care of our waterways: that the campaign funders and politicians voters elected want it that way.



The mainstream media are filled with talking points like this: State wild officials could not pinpoint the reason for the deaths of the fish recently. Bullshit. The massive, horrendous, shocking and sad fish kills happening in and around the Indian River Lagoon represent the political corruption infecting the state of Florida.


Here are a few examples: regulations to provide numerical standards for mercury and sulfates in Florida waters? Never happened.

Regulation to allow local government to stop phosphorous and nitrogen pollution in Florida waters? State legislature and Gov. Rick Scott voted, no. Protection of coastlines from massive overdevelopment? Absolutely not. Support for the U.S. EPA to regulate contaminants and enforce against violations in Florida? No.



Blame the Florida legislature, its leaders like Agriculture Secretary Adam Putnam, Florida Representative Matt Caldwell, House Speaker Steve Crisafulli, Senator Joe Negron, to start. Blame the most clueless, radical governor in Florida history the anti-people governor Rick Scott who never addressed a problem that he couldn't visualize from 30,000 feet in his private jet, or, if he did then just slammed the window shades shut.

There is no need for science to tell us what's wrong with Florida's waterways and the cascade of destruction from Florida Bay stretching north along both coasts. We know exactly what is wrong: voters who don't care, don't vote, or vote for candidates and incumbents who represent institutionalized corruption.

Who is responsible for the tragedy of Florida waters? Voters who keep returning to office at the county, state and federal level, politicians who are paid to misrepresent the truth. Voters who elect politicians in the pocket of powerful industries and trade associations that routinely make a mockery of democratic processes:

Associated Industries of Florida, run by former Jeb Bush ally Tom Feeney, spewing dark money into negative advertising like algae blooms. The Florida Chamber of Commerce. The Florida Farm Bureau. In 2013, 58 business organizations in the state of Florida signed a letter to the US Congress against the EPA's regulation of nitrogen and phosphorous contaminating state waterways. Killing off the EPA itself is a central platform of the GOP.

Every dead fish in Brevard County should be picked up and deposited on the doorsteps of citizens and taxpayers who did not vote, who voted for politicians funded by special interests like Big Sugar, who voted for elected officials who refused to make government work to protect rivers and waterways through tough pollution standards. One dead fish for every lobbyist in Tallahassee and two dead fish for every voter who supported elected officials who tolerate the revolving door between government regulators and the regulated. Three dead fish for every member of the governing board of the state's water management districts, and four dead fish for every voter who returned to office the governor who put those governing board members in place.

Five dead fish for every biologist who feared retribution if he or she spoke against his or her supervisor, afraid to shine the spotlight on pollution. Six dead fish for every voter who supported politicians that cultivate the atmosphere of fear and intimidation in environmental agencies like the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

The pollution starts at the top in the executive branch of government and spreads out in a toxic stream as vast as the pollution spreading from Lake Okeechobee. There is no mystery, why. We don't require scientists sifting through diseased tissue of dead manatees and dolphin. There is just one cause: politicians elected by Florida voters. There is only one way out: at the polls in November.
"Gee", I wunder why CNN didn't even mention Big Sugar nor the root cause ?


There is no better Man to talk to about all this than our own wunderblogger indianriverguy.

He lives there and is active, and has been for decades as to the damage Big Sugar has and is causing there.

We know Him by his real name, Marty.

A true Saint for the watereway's there.





In reply to comment #131:

It's really sad, I feared the worst for the FL environment when Rick Scott came in. The last thing we needed in a state with over population that has unique and fragile ecosystems that have already been damaged from carelessness and love of money. The recent bear hunt approved by the FWC last year despite numerous protests is just another example of what's going on in this state's government.

Despite numerous protests, a bear hunt was allowed last year even though the bear population only recently began to return to stable populations in limited areas. But the bear population is still far lower than it once was. So why was it approved? Because sub divisions have been built recently next to bear habitats, and people are too lazy to be educated about how handle trash disposal properly while living near bears, and so a few bears have broken into trash in Central FL, and a few attacks have occurred due to people refusing to be respectful of bear behavior and how to live around them. As a result, it caused mass fear and panic, even though it was the fault of people for the bear attacks by not learning how to avoid bear encounters and avoid attacks.

It just so happens that Rick Scott and a number of other people in the FL state government enjoy frequent bear hunts. I guess it's no surprise that a bear hunt was devised, and used the excuse of a few bear attacks as reason to allow them to be hunted.
I'm all for responsible hunting, but bear in most places in the country are not game animals. If people don't want to deal with bear in Central FL responsibly, don't move into a place that has them.

The bear issue doesn't have to do with fish, but it's just one of the many recent environmental concerns recently that has been approved by the FL state government. I'm personally sick of the obsession of money always being favored over kindness and care for other people and the environement we live in. What good is money if it's achieved in a dirty way? I for one, would rather remain at a lower or middle income, and have a good conscience, than make money by ruining the environment, and pushing down other people.
There was a large sugarcane burn/fire out near Lake O this morning. Early this morning, the smoke was showing up quite well on our local NBC news radar.
Also has that area of cold water.
According to the GFS, the Eastern Caribbean may see a fairly wet weather pattern in a few days... Hmm it could be our first significant rain event :)
Quoting 120. Gearsts:




Fantasy land, but it wouldn't surprise me to see another pre-season storm before June form in a manner like this.
Quoting 136. CaribBoy:

According to the GFS, the Eastern Caribbean may see a fairly wet weather pattern in a few days... Hmm it could be our first significant rain event :)
Has anyone been disciplined for saying that someone has an email?
Quoting 110. aquak9:

Dear sweet, kind, loveable, furry, snuggly MODS -

The wu-mail flag is NOT working. Hasn't worked in a few weeks, not dependably.

So we should NOT GET BANNED if we need to tell someone- "Hey so-and-so, you've got WU-MAIL"

Thanks, Aqua


Florida is so sad, but, look on the bright side, soon south Florida will be under too much water to have agriculture and it will be impossible to get insurance and the whole economy of Florida will fail. Additionally, I think I have taken ly last vacation to Florida, I normally like to avoid flying, but the cost benefit of driving to south Florida just isn't there anymore. It is better to hop a plane to Cancun for a cheap vacation on the reef, and thier reef, while in bad shape isn't the moon scape that south Florida has become.

And this started off as such a light hearted post.😒
Easter weekend in Sioux Falls! I think we have about 3 inches of snow and it is still falling.

Cheers
Qazulight
#139

Not I PedleyCA .

But the lil red light thing a ma jig hasn't been werking for months now.


We want the red light back.


Next thing they will be saying is, ya dont eat ya meat ya can't have any pudding'...


This is how chaos spreads.

First the red light goe's, then...what's next?

The quote feature?

Think of the chaos that would create.


: P

Quoting 138. Gearsts:


Interesting to see if this holds over the next few days.
Quoting 132. Patrap:

"Gee", I wunder why CNN didn't even mention Big Sugar nor the root cause ?


There is no better Man to talk to about all this than our own wunderblogger indianriverguy.

He lives there and is active, and has been for decades as to the damage Big Sugar has and is causing there.

We know Him by his real name, Marty.

A true Saint for the watereway's there.






This is true..Florida is in deep trouble. I hope they can protect whatever is left of the southern half.
Impressive storm cell moving into Pensacola, FL right now. Severe warned- golf ball sized hail.
Man, looks like a major hail producer over interior Central FL south of Orlando, 50 K ft echo tops, and 70 DBZ.
Never fear, our leader is normalizing trade with Cuba. Big Sugar will soon go back there.
If I were a betting man...I would bet that the runoff from neighborhoods and golf courses is far more to blame than "Big Sugar". No one regulates how much you fertilize, weed-n-feed or water your grass. That acreage is ten fold that of "Big Sugar".
The Link feature doesn't work on my account either. Hasn't for awhile. Piece by Piece......
Quoting 142. Patrap:

#139

Not I PedleyCA .

But the lil red light thing a ma jig hasn't been werking for months now.


We want the red light back.


Next thing they will be saying is, ya dont eat ya meat ya can't have any pudding'...


This is how chaos spreads.

First the red light goe's, then...what's next?

The quote feature?

Think of the chaos that would create.


: P



If I were a betting man, I would bet that runoff from your lawns and golf courses if far more to blame than "Big Sugar".
Quoting 151. cajunkid:

If I were a betting man, I would bet that runoff from your lawns and golf courses if far more to blame than "Big Sugar".


Hi George,

I was incorrect, the half life is not 30,000 years. The mean lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 is about 30,000 years, due to a very long tail for the last 10% of emissions.

If 1200 Gt of carbon is emitted, about 20% remains in the atmosphere after 1000 years. Note that 50% is sequestered very quickly and that the 600 Gt not sequestered results in atmospheric CO2 of about 515 ppm, so the 20% remaining after 1000 years is 20% of 1200 Gt or 240 Gt of carbon (multiply by 44/12 to get CO2), so atmospheric CO2 falls to 374 ppm after 1000 years. At 10,000 years about 10% of the initial emissions remain (120 Gt in this example) and atmospheric CO2 falls to 327 ppm at that point. After 100,000 years 6.5% of the 1200 Gt of emissions remains and atmospheric CO2 reaches 310 ppm at that point.

I have assumed the baseline for natural CO2 levels (during an interglacial) is 280 ppm. If we would prefer to get back to 350 ppm for atmospheric CO2 and we emit 1200 Gt of carbon it will take between 1000 and 10,000 years to do so.

That is why Archer believes the focus should be on CO2, I agree with Archer. Methane is much less of a concern than carbon dioxide emissions because methane is removed from the atmosphere relatively quickly.

Natural gas will peak and decline and its use is much preferred to coal, wind and solar are better, the peak will bring higher natural gas prices and a rapid transition to other energy sources. This is still 20 to 30 years away.

Link to Archer paper below:

https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/arch er.2005.fate_co2.pdf


-Dennis
Quoting 149. PedleyCA:




I'm sorry- would not be able to live out there. I even get depressed when we have cool, clear weather along the Northern Gulf Coast. Need the heat, humidity, and t-storms!
Quoting 148. cajunkid:

If I were a betting man...I would bet that the runoff from neighborhoods and golf courses is far more to blame than "Big Sugar". No one regulates how much you fertilize, weed-n-feed or water your grass. That acreage is ten fold that of "Big Sugar".


Well, you best keep to your actual trade cuz you could not be more wrong.

To know about a thing, one has to to learn about a thing first.

Thats worked for many fo a long time I spect'

Spit....

Raising Cane – A History of Big Sugar in South Florida
6,000 years ago, the Everglades were created when a receding ocean revealed a bare limestone plain that covered south Florida. Fed by heavy rainfall, subtropical plants made their home on the low nutrient soil. Rain falling across central Florida made its way to Lake Okeechobee, which frequently overflowed its southern boundaries, creating a slow moving ‘river of grass’ that once covered most of present-day Dade and Broward counties as well as the southern part of the state. As this ‘river’ slowly made its way towards Florida Bay, impurities were flushed from the water and Florida’s aquifers (large, underground limestone caves filled with fresh water) were replenished. Plants and animals thrived in this very unique ecosystem for
thousands of years.

Then the white man came…

The saga that is the tale of Florida’s sugar industry and its effect on the local environment is one of greed and power, of farmers and politically savvy wealthy foreigners, of bribes and Huge cattails clog the Everglades shady deals, all wrapped in the southern pride of the tiny town of Clewiston. It reads like the script to a Hollywood movie with no one, Democrat or Republican, being spared from ensnarement in the decade’s long legacy of abuse. Its rippling effects reach residents of both coasts, from Ft. Myers to Jensen Beach, but is primary victims remain the non-human residents of Lake Okeechobee and the long-suffering Everglades.

Of the four primary sugar-producing states, Florida is number one, accounting for half of all sugarcane acreage and generating between $1.3 and $1.6 billion in total income and over 18,000 full-time jobs. The two primary players, US Sugar and Florida Crystals, each control around 40% of Florida’s industry. But it was not always this way.
In 1920 the US government, pushed by Florida lawmakers, began ‘reclaiming’ the Everglades by dredging and building canals that drained the swamp just south of the lake.

This caused Florida’s coastal population to explode and brought former General Motors magnate Charles Stewart Mott, an investor who founded U.S. Sugar in 1931. But sugar cane simply does not grow well in Florida’s climate, even after drainage and massive applications of fertilizers like phosphorus and nitrogen. As one scientist puts it “Paying lavish subsidies to produce sugar in Florida makes as much sense as creating a federal subsidy program to grow bananas in Massachusetts”. But pay the federal government does, beginning with the Sugar Act of 1934, subsidies to the tune of $180 million a year which costs the American consumer some $1.4 billion a year in higher costs for the sweet stuff.
Even with government help, however, Florida’s sugar industry remained tiny until 1959 and the Cuban Revolution. Almost overnight, all Cuban sugar was embargoed and U.S trade officials made up for the loss by offering more incentives. The Army Corps of Engineers drained even more of the Everglades, more cane was planted, and sugar began to take over south Florida, complete with politicians and the town of Clewiston wrapped around its sweet little finger. The Cuban Revolution also brought the Fanjuls.

Alfonso Fanjul was heir to the Gomez-Mena sugar empire in Cuba when Castro took power. Forced to flee, they arrived in Fl orida just as the Corps were draining more land. He and his fellow exiles bought a farm on existing land and began to expand. Today, his sons, Alfy and Pepe are the largest sugar growers in the state, with 180,000 acres. But there’s more. Even with the expansion of Florida’s sugar industry, the country still needed more sugar.

The U.S. government, to protect domestic growers, assigns quotas to sugar-producing nations, the largest of which goes to the Dominican Republic. In a move that would make any hard driven capitalist proud, in 1985 the Fanjuls bought up a rival’s holdings there, allowing them to produce sugar on the cheap and making them the largest exporter of Dominican sugar. All of this after complaining about cheap labor being exploited by foreign markets.


more:,....
All of this farming and fertilizing and draining were having disastrous effects on both Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, however. The huge system of pumps, dikes and levees that the Army Corps of Engineers used to create the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) keeps what was once the northern part of the Everglades dry for farming. Below it, to serve as a water source for the 5 million people living on Florida’s southeast coast, lays the million-acre reservoirs known as Water Conservation Areas (the once middle part of the swamp) which is bordered by a massive north-south levee to keep the coast swamp-free. The only part of the Everglades allowed to remain natural was the southern part, created in 1947 as the Everglades National Park. In the wet summer months, excess water that would have flooded Lake Okeechobee and the EAA is drained away, some to the Water Conservation Areas (still a swamp) where it floods and drowns the wildlife there. The rest is pumped into canals connected to both the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie rivers, sending several hundred billion gallons a year of phosphorous laden fresh water to the saltwater estuaries at the mouths of both rivers. This pollution wrecks havoc with the delicate ecosystems there, causing massive algae blooms that kill fish, oysters, crabs and tourism. Meanwhile, the Everglades National Park receives virtually no water except what is dumped there, the polluted runoff from the farms.
For many years, the sugar industry was allowed to dump its excess water wherever it wanted, either by reverse-pumping into Lake Okeechobee or allowing it to runoff into the Everglades. This water is laden with as much as 500 parts per billion of phosphorous which, when mixed into the historically low-nutrient water of the Everglades, causes native plants to die off and cattails (which love phosphorous) to grow so thickly that wading birds have no place to land and nothing to eat. In a process known as ‘eutrophication’, these plants also suck all the oxygen out of the water, killing fish. In Lake O, which is 730 square miles in size but only nine feet deep, as much as three feet of muck now covers the bottom causing one Corps official to declare it a ‘chocolate mess’. A microbiologist from Florida International University claims that a maximum of 10 parts per billion of phosphorous is a natural level.
This went on unchecked until 1988 when a young U.S. Attorney named Dexter Lehtinen, fresh from indicting Manuel Noriega, sued Florida to force it to stop big sugar from polluting the Everglades. The sugar industry responded with both guns blazing. The devil was indeed loose in south Florida.
After failing both to get the suit dismissed and discredit Lehtinen’s star expert, big sugar poured millions of dollars into the 1992 presidential campaigns. The Fanjul brothers, traditionally Republicans, split allegiances with Pepe vice-chairing the Bush-Quayle Finance Committee and Alfy hosting a $120,000 fund-raiser and serving as co-chairman for Bill Clinton’s Florida campaign. When Clinton got elected, Alfy Fanjul met with Clinton’s new interior secretary, Bruce Babbitt, and persuaded him to turn the Everglades lawsuit mess back over to the state. Now big sugar began an all-out blitzkrieg on Florida, complete with an all-star lobbying team and big money media campaign to convince voters the phosphorous problem was overblown along with thinly veiled threats that the EAA would be sold to developers if sugar was forced out.
Viola! The Everglades Forever Act, a cleanup bill so slanted in favor of big sugar (who pretty much wrote it) that leading state environmentalists refused to have their names associated with it, was signed into law by Governor Lawton Chiles in 1994. This law capped industry cleanup costs at $320 million and saddled taxpayers with the rest (some $700 million). It also set the cleanup deadline at 2003, at which point state officials, not federal scientists, would determine the allowable phosphorous level. “The Clinton Administration delivers” crowed a jubilant Alfy Fanjul.
Other plans attempting to undo some of what has been done have met with similar fates.
In 1995, Republican candidates Richard Luger and Bob Dole, looking to get Florida back for the 1996 election, proposed a grower’s tax to help fund Everglades cleanup. To big sugar’s dismay, the Clinton Administration joined in, sending Al Gore to Florida promising a ‘polluter’s tax’ and, horror of horrors, to convert 100,000 acres of sugar farms back into swamp (to restore water flow from Lake Okeechobee). This led to the infamous phone call made to President Clinton on February 19, 1996 – interrupting an emotional meeting with Monica Lewinsky – in which Alfy Fanjul yelled at a sitting President. Though the White House promptly dropped the plan, thanks to a group called Save Our Everglades the tax appeared on the state ballot in 1996. This group had $13 million in funds which they used to campaign on the common sense notion that a heavily subsidized industry could afford a penny a pound tax to help fix the mess they had created.
With an astonishing $23 million in PAC money, big sugar again went to war, unleashing a $5.2 million media blitz calling the initiative ‘radical environmental extremism’ that would cost taxpayers money and jobs. They brought in Jesse Jackson to convince voters the tax was a ‘showdown between alligators and people’. They gave ‘informational tours’ to seniors, complete with a free lunch and bus ride to the cane fields. But the coup de grace was when they resorted to just plain lying, telling voters this would raise their property taxes (the tax applied only to sugar growers within the EAA). In what a Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel editorial called “a triumph of disinformation” the tax was defeated by a landslide.
There was also the Farm Bill of 1995 that should have, by all accounts, finally put an end to the sugar subsidy. A newly Republican Congress decided to target farm subsidies, which they considered ‘corporate welfare’. Public opinion about big sugar had swayed to anger over the environment. In May of 1995, Republican Dan Miller (from a non-sugar district in Florida) and Democrat Schumer from New York persuaded forty-seven Democrats and seventy-one Republicans to sponsor a phase-out of the sugar program and then added it to the Farm Bill. Big Sugar responded with $2 million and the usual P.R. blitz, complete with bogus reports about the price spikes of 1974 and 1980 and a deluge of scripted calls to lawmakers claiming the ‘voters’ support of the program, even professing support from churches.
Now that God had entered the picture, Congress freaked. Republican House Agricultural Chair Pat Roberts dropped the Miller-Schumer bill from the Farm Bill and forced a separate vote, which lost by five votes. Voting against the bill were its own co-sponsors. A quote from Republican Senator Larry Craig of Idaho (who received $59,602 from sugar that year) sums it up, “I ain’t no Johnny Cochran, but I can defend the sugar program”.
Big sugar attempted to extract revenge, too: when Miller returned home, he found his office picketed by growers and heard that sugar was offering $500,000 in campaign funding to anyone who would challenge him (he was reelected anyway).
Still, it isn’t all bad. The Everglades Forever Act has enjoyed some success, with phosphorus levels now down to the low 20s in some areas. The feds have joined in too, creating the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), involving multiple state and federal agencies in what is probably the ‘most complex and expensive environmental restoration program in U.S. history’. But CERP is not without controversy, either. The plan involves storing fresh water in reservoirs that will then be released into the Everglades in an attempt to mimic natural flow and the conversion of 50,000 acres of farmland. However, the reservoirs are to be blasted out of the limestone (which no one knows will work) and scientists claim that the project won’t help the park so much as boost water supplies for existing developments. In 2006, they reported that the Everglades were still ‘starved for water’. Also, President and Governor Bush gave this project to the very entity that destroyed the Everglades in the first place, The Army Corps of Engineers.
CERP has other issues, too. Federal governments’ commitment relies on the state to hold up its end of the bargain by adhering to the terms of the settled lawsuit (Everglades Forever) and clean up the pollution. While progress has been made, phosphorus levels still remain high further north in the Everglades and even the lows are not as low as was promised. So in 2003, despite opposition from both parties, Governor Bush signed a bill pushing the deadline back to 2013. Once again, sugar prevailed, and this on an agreement that they wrote themselves. The feds are not impressed and are threatening to pull out of CERP.
And the beat goes on…
Today, the Everglades are still in trouble. Some animal species are near extinction and the area is still in dire need of water. Lake Okeechobee is still clogged with cattails and high levels of phosphorus. While almost everyone agrees that the only way to fix the problem is to restore water flow from Lake Okeechobee, no one seems to know how to accomplish this. Lawmakers from both coasts want to stop the excessive releases from Lake O that is destroying their marine life and tourism by releasing the excess water into the cane fields. At a town meeting attended by residents from both coasts and Clewiston, lawsuits were threatened and no compromise was reached. And Governor Bush in 2004 launched a program called Acceler8, which involves borrowing some $1.8 billion for projects that were supposed to be covered by CERP. But Acceler8 is criticized for focusing more on water storage than restoration. A spokeswoman for the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians (who live in the Everglades and are among the groups trying to save it) describes the frustration: “while everyone’s haggling, the environmental destruction continues”.
Big sugar, meanwhile, continues to thrive. At a recent refinery opening in Clewiston, flags were flying and the air was thick with the smell of money. A former Miss Sugar sang the national anthem as Democrat Congressman Alcee Hastings ($42,250 in contributions) hobnobbed with Republican Mark Foley ($76, 470). As the patriotism flowed under the big tent, out in the swamp sat an old Florida Cracker, tinkering with his airboat and reminiscing about the days when cattle, not sugar, was king.

Keri Hendry
Quoting 120. Gearsts:




Bonnie is that you? Wounder if the 18z still have it
I'm not going to get into a spitting match over this.

I've got a degree in Agronomy with minors in Soil Science and Ag Business.
I be chillin' not grillin' this Easter weekend!

img src="">
Quoting 148. cajunkid:

If I were a betting man...I would bet that the runoff from neighborhoods and golf courses is far more to blame than "Big Sugar". No one regulates how much you fertilize, weed-n-feed or water your grass. That acreage is ten fold that of "Big Sugar".
Hello C.K..Good thing you not betting. Golf courses are beneficial to the aquatic environment when designed and managed properly....One of the main reasons runoff is bad in Florida is because of sandy soil. I should mention many courses use reclaimed water. Nothing good comes from sugar cane farming except the sugar, and even that is debatable.
Runoff is not bad in sandy soil. Runoff is bad in neighborhoods and golf courses. Water seeps down into sand between the cane rows.
Hmmm. GFS has been showing this for the past day or 2.
Link


Fresh water releases from basin runoff through local canals C-23, C-24, and C-44 as well as polluted fresh water from releases from Lake Okeechobee through C-44, cover near shore reefs off of Stuart and Jupiter Island. (Photo MC archives, 2011.)



Fresh Water Pollution, a Destructive Force in the St Lucie River/Indian River Lagoon
Some nasty storms in e central Florida right now. Looks like the S.R. 44 area getting walloped right now!! Hope my folks in Deland will be alright! Looks like the worst of that will skirt just south of them.

Eric
Quoting 163. Patrap:




Fresh water releases from basin runoff through local canals C-23, C-24, and C-44 as well as polluted fresh water from releases from Lake Okeechobee through C-44, cover near shore reefs off of Stuart and Jupiter Island. (Photo MC archives, 2011.)






The top picture is the northern end of Captiva Island (South Seas Resort) on the GOM just west of Fort Myers. I walk on that beach quite frequently.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 722 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 659 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
The current conditions at the Orlando International Airport, per the NWS page are, "Thunderstorm Heavy Small Hail/Snow Pellets Rain 76F", wind speed not reported. The weather icon shows the mix of rain and snow icon!
That Hail will spur the ICON on mostBULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
722 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 800 PM EDT  
 
* AT 721 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HARMONY...OR  
NEAR HOLOPAW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HOLOPAW...HARMONY AND ALLIGATOR LAKE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
171. Tcwx2
Same here. That has to be incredibly boring! I'd go outside while it is raining or even take off work! Love the busy weather in the southeast!!
Quoting 153. opal92nwf:


I'm sorry- would not be able to live out there. I even get depressed when we have cool, clear weather along the Northern Gulf Coast. Need the heat, humidity, and t-storms!
KANSAS - NEW RECORD LARGEST WILDFIRE: The wildfire that is still burning in Kansas is reportedly the record largest wildfire in that state. It has reportedly burned 620 sq mi / 1610 sq km of area in Kansas and Oklahoma so far.

Link
173. MahFL
Quoting 121. Patrap:




I am a member.
Quoting 162. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hmmm. GFS has been showing this for the past day or 2.
Link
Bonnie is that you?
If we get Bonnie in April like the GFS has been showing, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season forecasts substantially increased...

Including Alex, which was really more of a 2015 storm than a 2016 storm, the 2015 season was 12/5/2 under a VERY STRONG EL NINO. We should be able to easily get 15-16 storms in 2016 if the El Nino dissipates and MDR waters remain warm.
Looks like April might come roaring in like a lion if this prog is correct. Pacific jet undercutting with left front dynamics heading into the California coast. Maybe our last shot this season to top off the reservoirs and the Sierra snowpack.
Quoting 174. Andrebrooks:

Bonnie is that you?

Maybe. Although it is the GFS and is nearly two weeks out, so it's unlikely...

I still think Bonnie will form before the season officially begins, though. Western Atlantic waters are so warm - which will likely prevent us from having an inactive season this year.
Quoting 157. cajunkid:

I'm not going to get into a spitting match over this.

I've got a degree in Agronomy with minors in Soil Science and Ag Business.


Are you in the habit of making claims before examining the evidence? If you were a betting man, you would have been ready to make this claim.
Quoting 168. cajunkid:

Link



"Nearly 800 million gallons per day of treated wastewater was discharged in the
Southern Florida National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study unit in 1990, ..."

Do you have any information that is more current than this?

81.7F here today. One more 80 and then Mid 60's and some rain chances... woo-hoo

Pretty Darn DRY
Quoting 177. HurricaneFan:


Maybe. Although it is the GFS and is nearly two weeks out, so it's unlikely...

I still think Bonnie will form before the season officially begins, though. Western Atlantic waters are so warm - which will likely prevent us from having an inactive season this year.
We shall see. Alex has already surprised us.
Boomer's inbound from the ol Lady GOM tonight.

Lake Charles NEXRAD 124NM Range Composite Loop




This looks interesting.
I picked up another 1.01 today after 0.96 yesterday and 0.54 on Thursday. The frogs are croaking loudly. This is the pattern we needed. The heaviest potential yet will come tomorrow as the strongest disturbance approaches. Widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches is expected on top of what we had so far!

Wow, check out this video of a severe thunderstorm south of Orlando earlier today! The person who posted this video said he got 3 inches of rain in only 20 minutes in his rain gauge.

The wind gusts in this video for time get very intense, looks like a hurricane conditions with hail for a short period after about 2:00 min into the video, this is probably some of the worst severe thunderstorm conditions during the most intense part that I've seen on video:

Link

Quoting 188. Jedkins01:

Wow, check out this video of a severe thunderstorm south of Orlando earlier. The person who posted this video said he got 3 inches of rain in only 20 minutes in his rain gauge. The wind gusts in this video for time get very intense, looks like a hurricane with hail for a short period after about 2:00 min into the video:

Link

The rain Gutters are so useless with the rain rate that high
Before you make assumptions, take the time to look at a satellite view of the area south of Lake O.
All that area is farming, whether its is big sugar or otherwise, it comprises an area that is huge. Their runoff goes to only one place, while all the golf courses and residential areas in the rest of the state have many areas for their runoff to go. Mostly in land locked ponds in their own developments! Not down the river to the gulf and ocean, affecting every one but themselves!

Quoting 151. cajunkid:

If I were a betting man, I would bet that runoff from your lawns and golf courses if far more to blame than "Big Sugar".
Quoting 188. Jedkins01:

Wow, check out this video of a severe thunderstorm south of Orlando earlier today! The person who posted this video said he got 3 inches of rain in only 20 minutes in his rain gauge.

The wind gusts in this video for time get very intense, looks like a hurricane conditions with hail for a short period after about 2:00 min into the video, this is probably some of the worst severe thunderstorm conditions during the most intense part that I've seen on video:

Link


That is an incredible storm!
Think he got more than 3 inches of rain. He almost got 3 inches of hail!

Quoting 188. Jedkins01:

Wow, check out this video of a severe thunderstorm south of Orlando earlier today! The person who posted this video said he got 3 inches of rain in only 20 minutes in his rain gauge.

The wind gusts in this video for time get very intense, looks like a hurricane conditions with hail for a short period after about 2:00 min into the video, this is probably some of the worst severe thunderstorm conditions during the most intense part that I've seen on video:

Link
Quoting 191. Bucsboltsfan:



That is an incredible storm!


It really is, I've seen a lot of severe thunderstorm video footage from a lot of places, and that is some of the worst I've ever seen. That cell had a radar signature of 75 DBZ earlier and a top to 50 K ft which is insanely tall for March. Anything with 75 DBZ is bound to produce incredible video footage.
Quoting 192. swflurker:

Think he got more than 3 inches of rain. He almost got 3 inches of hail!




lol yeah severe reports indicated some places had hail up to 1 foot deep from that cell. Mid level temps have been unusually coold for Florida the last couple days, and that to mid 80's and high Florida humidity and there you go.

This cell develop no different than a summer sea breeze thunderstorm, just heating and sea breezes, but in March. Though if it was July there wouldn't have been so much hail, lol.
Quoting 189. PedleyCA:



The rain Gutters are so useless with the rain rate that high



Yeah you can see a lot of water pouring off the roof in the video when the wind calms down a bit. Just a wild thunderstorm. Not often do you get lucky enough to experience a thunderstorm like that, or unlucky, depending on perspective, lol.

there always been weather Happy Easter
Quoting 147. cajunkid:

Never fear, our leader is normalizing trade with Cuba. Big Sugar will soon go back there.
Hope so, the land could be used for better things anyways.
Happy Easter to all.

Long range but GFS keeps this low showing up on every run in the past 3 days. I would wait for the ECMWF to see if it has the same low northnortheast of Puerto Rico because if not then what GFS is showing is a ghost.Hopefully the next GFS upgrade on May 17 helps eliminate that.On the other hand,if ECMWF has it,then is game on.

soggy 66 degrees .077 inches of rain here in Destrehan La. Not looking for the dyed eggs but for poached eggs....Happy Easter to you and your families....
Easter Sunrise! Might be a little difficult to find the Easter Eggs today.


Quoting 188. Jedkins01:

Wow, check out this video of a severe thunderstorm south of Orlando earlier today! The person who posted this video said he got 3 inches of rain in only 20 minutes in his rain gauge.

The wind gusts in this video for time get very intense, looks like a hurricane conditions with hail for a short period after about 2:00 min into the video, this is probably some of the worst severe thunderstorm conditions during the most intense part that I've seen on video:

Link


That storm looked very similar to the storm I got back in January 2016 when I recorded an 81 mph wind gust. We had complete white out conditions for about 5 minutes and numerous trees blown down all over the neighborhood. I'm surprised he didn't report any wind damage associated with the storm. For a few minutes it looked like the winds were pretty intense.
A safe and Happy Easter to all...GFS still has a cold shot coming...

Quoting 200. Tropicsweatherpr:

Happy Easter to all.

Long range but GFS keeps this low showing up on every run in the past 3 days. I would wait for the ECMWF to see if it has the same low northnortheast of Puerto Rico because if not then what GFS is showing is a ghost.Hopefully the next GFS upgrade on May 17 helps eliminate that.On the other hand,if ECMWF has it,then is game on.



Well, let's just say you're on board!!! ECMWF shows a low with some vorticity, at the tail end of a cold front. Looks like something similar to the Ana setup. Much further west than the GFS , but will bring some stormy, perhaps severe weather to the gulf coast.Link
Quoting 161. cajunkid:

Runoff is not bad in sandy soil. Runoff is bad in neighborhoods and golf courses. Water seeps down into sand between the cane rows.



That really depends on what kind sandy soil you're talking about. Spodosol soils (like the Myaak that covers most of Florida) and the organic histols (which make up a huge area around the lake and everglades) don't have a whole lot of absorptive capacity in Florida's geological region/climate (partially or mostly saturated to begin with). A lot of areas require artificial drainage to ensure flooding doesn't occur.

Regardless, runoff is clearly an issue in Florida regardless of the soil types that dominate.



Happy Easter everyone, be safe!!!
Happy Resurrection Sunday everybody and have a blessed and wonderful day.
210. JRRP7
ensemble GFS and ECMWF

Quoting 210. JRRP7:

ensemble GFS and ECMWF




It has a trough of low pressure.Something to watch in next runs.

polar vortex to drop down over north central Ontario the first week of april
first 2 weeks of april too be cooler than normal
then rebound too the warmth second half of april
Rainfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Rain, heavy at times, will begin this evening and end Monday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm are expected. There is also a risk of an isolated thunderstorm overnight into early Monday morning over Southwestern Ontario.

Rainfall warnings are issued when 25 mm or more of rain are expected within 24 hours, when the ground is frozen or saturated, and has a reduced ability to absorb this rainfall.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. If visibility is reduced while driving, turn on your lights and maintain a safe following distance.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 214. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

polar vortex to drop down over north central Ontario the first week of april
first 2 weeks of april too be cooler than normal
then rebound too the warmth second half of april
Happy Easter Keep....I thought it would be cold for your region during the first half of April. A prolonged but strong SSW and polar vort can keep winter around well into spring.
On massive fish kills on Florida coasts, there is no mystery

Who is responsible for the tragedy of Florida waters? Voters who keep returning to office at the county, state and federal level, politicians who are paid to misrepresent the truth.
Quoting 217. hydrus:

Happy Easter Keep....I thought it would be cold for your region during the first half of April. A prolonged but strong SSW and polar vort can keep winter around well into spring.
same too you and winter is over just gonna be a winter like spring for a bit not too long a couple of weeks or just short of that
Is wet here.

Happy Easter PEEPS....
Quoting 190. swflurker:
Before you make assumptions, take the time to look at a satellite view of the area south of Lake O.
All that area is farming, whether its is big sugar or otherwise, it comprises an area that is huge. Their runoff goes to only one place, while all the golf courses and residential areas in the rest of the state have many areas for their runoff to go. Mostly in land locked ponds in their own developments! Not down the river to the gulf and ocean, affecting every one but themselves!

Well stated! A degree in agronomy is useless when applied to uninformed "opinions." It is still necessary to examine the data and evidence.
Quoting 211. Tropicsweatherpr:



It has a trough of low pressure.Something to watch in next runs.


Quoting 210. JRRP7:

ensemble GFS and ECMWF


LinkLink
Quoting 214. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

polar vortex to drop down over north central Ontario the first week of april
first 2 weeks of april too be cooler than normal
then rebound too the warmth second half of april


39% of international home buyers in Florida are from Canada. With each Polar Vortex, I can see that number increasing.
Link
Happy Easter?

I told Grothar (on the right) after, that the Bunny smelled funny.


Well, the wind has come round and we're seeing some clearing as it's slowly getting brighter now.

24 mile Causeway Bridge over Lake Pontchartrain Cams,South Shore views




The rain chances that were in the 7-day yesterday appear to have evaporated.
Quoting 203. Sfloridacat5:



That storm looked very similar to the storm I got back in January 2016 when I recorded an 81 mph wind gust. We had complete white out conditions for about 5 minutes and numerous trees blown down all over the neighborhood. I'm surprised he didn't report any wind damage associated with the storm. For a few minutes it looked like the winds were pretty intense.


Yeah wind gusts looked to have peaked at about 70-80 mph in the video, it's crazy that you got the on your weather station, very lucky and cool claim, or unlucky, depending on how you look at it, lol.

BTW, there was some wind damage too, not sure why there are often so few SPC reports with these localized severe events that happen in Florida, but there were a lot of trees down and some structural damage yesterday from that event.
Where's the front?

I was in the restaurant when that lovely hail storm came through this is the covered part of at the deck where the hail blew into the front doors. We had a lot of homes damage, lots of car damage, and many campers lost their awnings and trees, plants everything is stripped of leaves. Lots of small limbs down, no major limbs. The winds were scary. We still had a half inch of hail in areas of our yard and the park this morning around 7am. 3 year old thought it was best. You can see this in my blog its the first photo, can't get just one to post here.
http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/splash3392/

Quoting 232. splash3392:

I was in the restaurant when that lovely hail storm came through this is the covered part of at the deck where the hail blew into the front doors. We had a lot of homes damage, lots of car damage, and many campers lost their awnings and trees, plants everything is stripped of leaves. Lots of small limbs down, no major limbs. The winds were scary. We still had a half inch of hail in areas of our yard and the park this morning around 7am. 3 year old thought it was best. You can see this in my blog its the first photo, can't get just one to post here.
http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/splash3392/





Thank you very much Patrap, and you are right on about big sugar.
experts believe there is a super algae bloom that caused this massive fish kill...........
A Happy Easter to you and yours splash, thats a real wild Hail shot.

Those boomers were some Bad ones.

We keep a eye on the big Agriculture here too as our wetlands are Home and work for thousands as well.
Latest Euro shows really cold air from the North Pole entering the U.S....GFS at the bottom....




Quoting 236. LargoFl:

experts believe there is a super algae bloom that caused this massive fish kill...........


Yeah, I posted the same picture yesterday from our local news story. Pretty bad fish kill.
241. bwi
Brrr

Quoting 240. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I posted the same picture yesterday from our local news story. Pretty bad fish kill.
yeah I was totally amazed,never saw such a thing here..man,im wondering does someone or some agency clean that mess up?..
243. JRRP7
Quoting 238. Gearsts:




Quoting 242. LargoFl:

yeah I was totally amazed,never saw such a thing here..man,im wondering does someone or some agency clean that mess up?..

They were asking for volunteers last week to go to the river and pick up the dead. That was an amazingly massive fish kill from Titusville to south of Melbourne. Brown algae bloomed in March, waters aren't even hot yet.. Local fisherman were in tears.
Late Easter night hello. Hope you folks had a pleasant holiday. Awful pics of those dead fish though :-(
UK and and its neighbors across the English Channel are in for a rough night and morning due to windstorm "Katie" (English) or "Jeanne" (German):


Alert map from wetteronline.de for Monday.


Current IR loop (updating).

Map of current gales (updating).

Current pressure (as I write this it's 975mb just off the southwestern tip of Wales).

Storm Katie will drench Swansea Bay tonight and could batter it with 70mph gusts tomorrow
By South Wales Evening Post | Posted: March 27, 2016


Surface map for Monday at noon.
Is India facing its worst-ever water crisis?
BBC, Soutik Biswas Delhi correspondent, 2 hours ago, From the section India

Remarkable new footage of the mudflow from the Samarco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Dave Petley's landslide blog, 27 March 2016
Really terrifying video :-(
Quoting 178. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Are you in the habit of making claims before examining the evidence? If you were a betting man, you would have been ready to make this claim.


Nice. Look it up for yourself before spouting personal attacks.
All I did was raise the question of other possible causes. Most here want to demonize an industry before examining unbiased evidence.

Quoting 242. LargoFl:

yeah I was totally amazed,never saw such a thing here..man,im wondering does someone or some agency clean that mess up?..


Largo, how long have you lived in Pinellas County?
http://www.broward.org/WATERMATTERS/Pages/waterqual ity.aspx

Link
Quoting 244. Skyepony:


They were asking for volunteers last week to go to the river and pick up the dead. That was an amazingly massive fish kill from Titusville to south of Melbourne. Brown algae bloomed in March, waters aren't even hot yet.. Local fisherman were in tears.


the earth shall give up its dead
I read an article where Japanese took 400 whales
most pregnant females for scientific research
or so they say that's what its for
Happy Easter to all


GEFS is faster with the cold shot..

Think for a minute about the cost per acre to grow sugar cane. To make a profit, the amount of fertilizer and herbicide applied by producers is not more than the plant can uptake or required. They are not in the business of throwing "expensive" chemicals away.

Now, look at every nice St. Augustine yard and how much is wasted (unregulated) to make your little piece of paradise green. We all do it. Neighborhood retention ponds run into streams.
Quoting 256. hydrus:


ya a visitor is returning yet again
rains coming

259. beell
Quoting 200. Tropicsweatherpr:

Happy Easter to all.

Long range but GFS keeps this low showing up on every run in the past 3 days. I would wait for the ECMWF to see if it has the same low northnortheast of Puerto Rico because if not then what GFS is showing is a ghost.Hopefully the next GFS upgrade on May 17 helps eliminate that.On the other hand,if ECMWF has it,then is game on.




Maybe, an origin in the gulf from a mid-level shortwave and perhaps a wave on an old frontal boundary. Bringing cool mid-level temps along with it. Tropical in the Atlantic? Probably not-and, Happy Easter to you.


surface


500 mb vort


500 mb temps

All 3 from the 18Z GFS @ 186 hrs
pelicans !!!
Quoting 255. cajunkid:

Think for a minute about the cost per acre to grow sugar cane. To make a profit, the amount of fertilizer and herbicide applied by producers is not more than the plant can uptake or required. They are not in the business of throwing "expensive" chemicals away.

Now, look at every nice St. Augustine yard and how much is wasted (unregulated) to make your little piece of paradise green. We all do it. Neighborhood retention ponds run into streams.


Sugar is Wingnut Welfare.
It could not survive without subsidies.
Quoting 243. JRRP7:






Good bye El Niño hello LA Nino
Quoting 218. nrtiwlnvragn:

On massive fish kills on Florida coasts, there is no mystery

Who is responsible for the tragedy of Florida waters? Voters who keep returning to office at the county, state and federal level, politicians who are paid to misrepresent the truth.
No disagreement here. Under-educated voters ...people who do not care enough to vote. Obscenely gerrymandered districts that keep the super-majority party in place.
Obsession with lush non-native grass lawns maintained with massive amounts of fertilizer and pesticide, combined with poor civil engineering that channels the run-off into the inter-coastal waters. Sell-out to big agriculture and developers.

If we could return the Indian River Lagoon and the Banana River Lagoon to their pristine state it would be a boost to small-business fisherman and tourism. The area was once famous for blue crab and clams, which helped the local restaurants. No one wants to swim, boat or eat food from a cesspool.

There is a process we might call "Lake Apopka Syndrome", where agricultural run-off combined with industrial poisons created huge algae blooms that resulted in a poisonous sludgy muck bottom. Since the lake is shallow, this poison is continually stirred to the surface ...even if the sources of pollution are shut-off, recovery could take decades or centuries. I fear some areas of the inter-coastal waters are undergoing the same process.

A possible solution is to shut-down all of the canals and storm-water drainage into the inter-coastal waters, maybe pumping it deep into the ground or far out to sea, or retain more of it inland to naturally percolate into the water table. Reducing use of fertilizer and pesticides would be a great help. Perhaps opening up more outlets to the ocean as well. The details would require a great deal of research first so as to not repeat the mistakes of the past. That would be a start, but instead we get denial and inaction. It is a crime both against nature and the people of Florida.
GFS been doing this all year.
Quoting 264. Tazmanian:



Good bye El Niño hello LA Nino
Right buddy. What do you think about the possible Bonnie next week my friend.
Quoting 267. Andrebrooks:

Right buddy. What do you think about the possible Bonnie next week my friend.



We'll see if we get a storm next week but unless the other models are on board with this I think the GFS is up too it's old tricks like all ways be for hurricane season really kicks in the GFS normaly start showing. Ghost storms far out its that time of year
Quoting 268. Tazmanian:




We'll see if we get a storm next week but unless the other models are on board with this I think the GFS is up too it's old tricks like all ways be for hurricane season really kicks in the GFS normaly start showing. Ghost storms far out its that time of year
Right, the Euro is latching a little.
Quoting 268. Tazmanian:




We'll see if we get a storm next week but unless the other models are on board with this I think the GFS is up too it's old tricks like all ways be for hurricane season really kicks in the GFS normaly start showing. Ghost storms far out its that time of year

Earthquake!!!!
Hasn't hit the USGS web site yet - but we sure felt it... Which means it was greater than a 3... Usually don't feel them if they are less than a 3.
Quoting 271. Dakster:

Earthquake!!!!
Be careful bud.
Almost like Hurricanes better, at least you get warning for those.
00z drops potential Bonnie next week. Let's see if it comes back in the morning.
Quoting 271. Dakster:

Earthquake!!!!



Run for the hills oh wait it's only a UFO
Apparently we had a Volcano erupt too. Pavlov.

Wonder if dogs salavated when it erupted...
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Quoting 262. washingtonian115:


  1. 4.0 26km SSE of Knik-Fairview, Alaska 2016-03-28 04:18:58 UTC 21.3 km

Quoting 277. Dakster:

Apparently we had a Volcano erupt too. Pavlov.

Wonder if dogs salavated when it erupted...
Just keeps getting better. At least no Tropical Cyclones there...lol
Your theory was debunked last night. Move onto something new please. Thanks.

Quoting 255. cajunkid:

Think for a minute about the cost per acre to grow sugar cane. To make a profit, the amount of fertilizer and herbicide applied by producers is not more than the plant can uptake or required. They are not in the business of throwing "expensive" chemicals away.

Now, look at every nice St. Augustine yard and how much is wasted (unregulated) to make your little piece of paradise green. We all do it. Neighborhood retention ponds run into streams.
Quoting 280. PedleyCA:


Just keeps getting better. At least no Tropical Cyclones there...lol



That is one positive.
Quoting 277. Dakster:

Apparently we had a Volcano erupt too. Pavlov.

Wonder if dogs salavated when it erupted...

An eruption of dog saliva... gruesome. Everytime I clean that stuff off the kitchen floor, I joke with my wife that if I had a time machine, I would travel back in time and hunt down that Pavlov person.
Storm Katie 2016: Flights cancelled amid 105mph winds
Blustery end to Easter weekend as dozens of flights cancelled or diverted in strong winds that bring down crane and cause hazardous driving conditions
The Telegraph, Monday 28 March 2016
Storm Katie has battered southern Britain, with winds of up to 105mph forcing dozens of flights to be cancelled or diverted and major bridges shut.
The Met Office issued an amber weather warning for strong gusts for London and the south east, with a yellow alert for the east and south-west of England and south Wales.
It ensured the Easter Bank Holiday weekend came to a blustery end, with gusts of more than 70mph for many areas combined with torrential rain, and thousands of families left without power. ...


Forecast from Estofex for today:
A level 1 was issued for N France, Belgium, Luxemburg and western/central Germany mainly for chances of isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts.
Details see link above.


Windstorm Katie/Jeanne. Pressure at 972mb off the east coast of England.
Picked up 1.99" since last Thursday however many areas around me have seen much more infact 9.54" in Kissimmee and over 4" in Orlando. Also the storms that moved thru Orlando Saturday was very intense infact there were hail drifts of over 1 FOOT in Kissimmee.



It's getting worse -

Professor Terry Hughes, a coral reef expert based at James Cook University in Townsville who led the survey team, said the situation is now critical.

“This will change the Great Barrier Reef forever,” Professor Hughes told 7.30.

“We’re seeing huge levels of bleaching in the northern thousand-kilometre stretch of the Great Barrier Reef.”


95 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef’s northern reefs rated as severely bleached
Only 4 out of 520 reefs surveyed were found to be unaffected by bleaching
Third global coral bleaching event since 1998
barrier island floridians. runoff from the yards is killing our ecosystem. that not only includes the chemicals you put on the grass but also by not picking up and disposing the pets feces. lets face it too many green lawns.
290. MahFL
2 hours and 33 mins for a comment, I sure miss the old chat.....
291. MahFL
Quoting 287. StormTrackerScott:

Picked up 1.99" since last Thursday however many areas around me have seen much more infact 9.54" in Kissimmee and over 4" in Orlando.


We got 0.6 inch in Orange Park, at one point the forecast was for a possible 4 inches, but that busted.
“The three-month-long summer is barely weeks away but water availability in India’s 91 reservoirs is at its lowest in a decade, with stocks at a paltry 29% of their total storage capacity, according to the Central Water Commission. Some 85% of the country’s drinking water comes from aquifers, but their levels are falling, according to WaterAid.”

We are being told that water levels in the Ganges have declined by a fourth. Being located on the banks of one of the world’s largest rivers, we never thought we would face a scarcity of water. The unthinkable is happening.”


Link
Quoting 291. MahFL:



We got 0.6 inch in Orange Park, at one point the forecast was for a possible 4 inches, but that busted.


Convection here down in E C FL has been the result of daytime heating. Very much like a Summer pattern here thru the end of the week and into the weekend.

Temps tomorrow across the Orlando area @ 500mb is expected to be between -13C and -15C so tomorrow could be bad around here once surface temps get up into the upper 80's.
It was something watching the NWS here in Melbourne issuing advisories regarding Hail drifts. LOL!
Quoting 284. oldnewmex:


An eruption of dog saliva... gruesome. Everytime I clean that stuff off the kitchen floor, I joke with my wife that if I had a time machine, I would travel back in time and hunt down that Pavlov person.

Ours sling drool as well...I cannot imagine life without them tho...and at 200 lbs, the drool can be plentiful.
Climate Change: Greenland Melting Tied to Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice

“Blocking-high” pressure systems spawn most of the warming that melts Greenland surface ice, study says

Vanishing Arctic sea ice. Dogged weather systems over Greenland. Far-flung surface ice melting on the massive island.

These dramatic trends and global sea-level rise are linked, according to a study coauthored by Jennifer Francis, a research professor in Rutgers University’s Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences.


Link
Quoting 265. guygee:

No disagreement here. Under-educated voters ...people who do not care enough to vote. Obscenely gerrymandered districts that keep the super-majority party in place.
Obsession with lush non-native grass lawns maintained with massive amounts of fertilizer and pesticide, combined with poor civil engineering that channels the run-off into the inter-coastal waters. Sell-out to big agriculture and developers.

If we could return the Indian River Lagoon and the Banana River Lagoon to their pristine state it would be a boost to small-business fisherman and tourism. The area was once famous for blue crab and clams, which helped the local restaurants. No one wants to swim, boat or eat food from a cesspool.

There is a process we might call "Lake Apopka Syndrome", where agricultural run-off combined with industrial poisons created huge algae blooms that resulted in a poisonous sludgy muck bottom. Since the lake is shallow, this poison is continually stirred to the surface ...even if the sources of pollution are shut-off, recovery could take decades or centuries. I fear some areas of the inter-coastal waters are undergoing the same process.

A possible solution is to shut-down all of the canals and storm-water drainage into the inter-coastal waters, maybe pumping it deep into the ground or far out to sea, or retain more of it inland to naturally percolate into the water table. Reducing use of fertilizer and pesticides would be a great help. Perhaps opening up more outlets to the ocean as well. The details would require a great deal of research first so as to not repeat the mistakes of the past. That would be a start, but instead we get denial and inaction. It is a crime both against nature and the people of Florida.



Another issue that I heard mentioned on the radio on the way into work the other day was the issue of the locks on the river being closed. These are in place to keep the flow rates down in certain areas so that areas like Port Canaveral do not get too much sediment buildup, increasing costs for the constant need of dredging to keep the channels clear.
Quoting 293. StormTrackerScott:



Convection here down in E C FL has been the result of daytime heating. Very much like a Summer pattern here thru the end of the week and into the weekend.

Temps tomorrow across the Orlando area @ 500mb is expected to be between -13C and -15C so tomorrow could be bad around here once surface temps get up into the upper 80's.


That video of the storm is just insane. I've lived in Pinellas County for 50 years and have never seen that severe of a thunderstorm.
weekly reading of nino 3.4 is now at 1.5C....dropping faster than it did in the 97/98 event
Quoting 265. guygee:

A possible solution is to shut-down all of the canals and storm-water drainage into the inter-coastal waters, maybe pumping it deep into the ground or far out to sea, or retain more of it inland to naturally percolate into the water table. Reducing use of fertilizer and pesticides would be a great help. Perhaps opening up more outlets to the ocean as well. The details would require a great deal of research first so as to not repeat the mistakes of the past. That would be a start, but instead we get denial and inaction. It is a crime both against nature and the people of Florida.


To shut these canals down would submerse my place as well as many, many others. This all coincided with that shut down of Wickham Rd. They added that other drainage pipe they have been planning to under the road. They opened up the retention pond all that went through before going back into Hopkins (aka Eau Gallie River). The last big bloom the canal dredgers accidentally compromised the dike holding back that pond that filtered that water, releasing everything including alot of trash to the River. Locals that live along it are blaming this bloom and fish kill on it again. They have been dredging the Eau Gallie river while they completed the Apollo Rd extension and the added the large culvert under Wickham. That final removal of that retention/sess/filter pond was timed to that bloom. It certainly looks nicer now but should let all that flow even quicker to the Indian River with little to no filter.

FIT did a study. They modeled several options, the best looked to be adding many small drainage culverts across the barrier island in many locations. Since they don't extend to the bottom of the river less muck gets disturbed and moved around while water exchanges more freely with the ocean.

The fisherman say there will be no clams this year..
Quoting 299. ricderr:

weekly reading of nino 3.4 is now at 1.5C....dropping faster than it did in the 97/98 event

ESPI plunged from 1.60s to 0.98 in the last week or 10 days. So the drop should continue farther and maybe even a little faster. It still doesn't seem to be dropping as fast as some here hoped. I still doubt we see neutral conditions by 4/15.
Quoting 301. Skyepony:


ESPI plunged from 1.60s to 0.98 in the last week or 10 days. So the drop should continue farther and maybe even a little faster. It still doesn't seem to be dropping as fast as some here hoped. I still doubt we see neutral conditions by 4/15.


i haven't read anyone say neutral by 4/15...must have missed it...but i still think we'll see some la nina values in june....nothing scientific however
The Wall Street Journal, Climate Change Denial and the Galileo Gambit

Michael Mann

Fossil fuel companies have been misleading the public and policymakers about the risks of their products for decades. These corporations should obviously be held accountable.

It’s odd that we aren’t able to discuss this straightforwardly. After all, accountability is common for other industries. When companies mislead the public about the health effects of the drugs they market, for instance, we hold them accountable.


Link
Quoting 300. Skyepony:



To shut these canals down would submerse my place as well as many, many others. This all coincided with that shut down of Wickham Rd. They added that other drainage pipe they have been planning to under the road. They opened up the retention pond all that went through before going back into Hopkins (aka Eau Gallie River). The last big bloom the canal dredgers accidentally compromised the dike holding back that pond that filtered that water, releasing everything including alot of trash to the River. Locals that live along it are blaming this bloom and fish kill on it again. They have been dredging the Eau Gallie river while they completed the Apollo Rd extension and the added the large culvert under Wickham. That final removal of that retention/sess/filter pond was timed to that bloom. It certainly looks nicer now but should let all that flow even quicker to the Indian River with little to no filter.

FIT did a study. They modeled several options, the best looked to be adding many small drainage culverts across the barrier island in many locations. Since they don't extend to the bottom of the river less muck gets disturbed and moved around while water exchanges more freely with the ocean.

The fisherman say there will be no clams this year..
It sounds like a lot of the problem is the loss of gradient (there never was much) between the waterways and the ocean, due to sea level rise. One possible solution would be to automate the gates of the drainage system to open as the tide goes out and close as the tide comes in. This would restore a gradient and allow the flow to both drain the stored water and flush the channels out to sea where the pollutants would be diluted and only damage the coral reefs.
Quoting 298. Bucsboltsfan:



That video of the storm is just insane. I've lived in Pinellas County for 50 years and have never seen that severe of a thunderstorm.


I had 2 severe storms split and move north while the other moved south. Still got rain but avoided the heavy hail and extreme winds. Friend over in Sorrento said hail was about 1" in diameter and lasted for 10 to 15 minutes. Sorrento is just 8 to 10 miles NW of me.
306. SLU
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 28m28 minutes ago

Interesting. CFS 00Z vs. 06Z forecast at 24 hours. Both still have the cold anomaly. Was supposed to be fixed at 6Z.


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 3h3 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

My question is how the heck could this possible [sic] be going on as nothing like it on other climate models



Maybe feeding erroneous data into the models to fit in with the overall paradigm can result in garbage out.
El Nino is down to +1.5C now in 3.4 region, after a peak of +3.1C... I'm thinking ENSO neutral by early June, with La Nina by August...if this Nino continues to collapse the La Nina may be stronger. ENSO neutral by June should guarantee us at least a near-average hurricane season.
Bye Bye El Ninoooo! *sung like bye bye birdie*

Hola La Nina!
The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño 4 1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 1.5ºC
Niño 3 1.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Quoting 267. Andrebrooks:

Right buddy. What do you think about the possible Bonnie next week my friend.


She lies over the ocean.

Next question.
Quoting 263. cytochromeC:



Sugar is Wingnut Welfare.
It could not survive without subsidies.


Not in the U.S. true. Other much lower cost producers could compensate reducing U.S. food costs significantly (though it should be noted they already the cheapest in the developed world). Yeah it is gross corporate welfare.


North Atlantic freshening from land ice melt, cold blob, stronger storms
Jason Box

Link
313. ackee
Officially do we still have a EL Nino or ENSOR now base on SST reading
Several La Nina, Cold AMO seasons were fairly active in the Atlantic, like 1984, 1985, and 1988. The AMO doesn't influence Western Atlantic/GOM activity as much so I'm still thinking we'll see some landfalling hurricanes next year.
316. ackee
What kind of pattern do u think will influence the hurricane season

A ENSO
B La Nina
C El Nino
D Neutral conditions
The CO2ppm in the atmosphere rising.

It affects all weather, as we exist in a warmer,wetter climate overall.
A strong La nina can have negative effects on TC activity over the Atlantic?

Con el fenómeno de La Niña, mientras, se registran temperaturas más bajas en el mar y cambia la dirección del viento en las capas superiores hacia el este. Esto puede provocar que se generan más tormentas y huracanes aunque una versión muy fuerte de La Niña tiene el potencial de evitar el desarrollo de ciclones.Link
Quoting 289. islander101010:

barrier island floridians. runoff from the yards is killing our ecosystem. that not only includes the chemicals you put on the grass but also by not picking up and disposing the pets feces. lets face it too many green lawns.



What about septic systems on the barrier islands?
Quoting 305. StormTrackerScott:



I had 2 severe storms split and move north while the other moved south. Still got rain but avoided the heavy hail and extreme winds. Friend over in Sorrento said hail was about 1" in diameter and lasted for 10 to 15 minutes. Sorrento is just 8 to 10 miles NW of me.


Those previous pictures you posted, you had more ice on the ground than I do up in mine in Alaska. It's 'raining' right now and supposed to rain until Tuesday night. Although what they call rain up here is more like a steady drizzle in Florida. Even with the little bit of wind that is coming with it.
Quoting 319. Dakster:



What about septic systems on the barrier islands?


I can't imagine any reasonable building code allowing them but maybe I'm naive.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 320. Dakster:



Those previous pictures you posted, you had more ice on the ground than I do up in mine in Alaska. It's 'raining' right now and supposed to rain until Tuesday night. Although what they call rain up here is more like a steady drizzle in Florida. Even with the little bit of wind that is coming with it.


I would have commented about the difference between winter and summer rain intensities here in DC until THIS winter when we got summer level PWATS in warm air masses and very intense showers and low topped thunderstorms sufficient to produce flash flooding within a half hour with rain rates at August intensities.
It happened in December and AGAIN in February.
Re: 311 comment viz. sugar subsidies

If I remember correctly, Cuba had a major sugar industry. When the revolution occurred in '59, that fell victim to the on-going blockade. If that trade is restored, then sugar prices will have to re-balance. For those that live in the Florida areas subject to the sugar production and its byproducts, there could be some reprieve. Functionally, this will be a political hot issue, with the money and power of the sugar industry trying to hold on to what it has. On the ground in Florida, the key water issues may undercut any grass roots support for the present corrupt system.
Okay, question in light of this blog...

With these La Nina events coming, what does that mean for California and it's drought? We've had some rain in Norcal this year, but could a La Nina (being cold and wet) bring us out? Or are these years typically cold and dry for CA? Please pardon my ignorance here.