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World Meteorological Day: A Hotter, Drier, Wetter World of Weather

By: Bob Henson 10:37 PM GMT on March 23, 2016

Today is World Meteorological Day, held each year on the date (March 23, 1950) when the treaty creating the World Meteorological Organization went into force. The theme of this year’s World Meteorological Day is a timely one: “Hotter, Drier, Wetter—Face the Future.” Dozens of billion-dollar weather disasters plagued our planet in 2015—many of them involving droughts and floods—and inflicted a total $123 billion in damage (see Figure 1, below). That total came in below the 15-year average of $175 billion. However, the pain was widely distributed in the form of 29 separate billion-dollar disasters, the fourth largest number since accounting began in 1990, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield.

While the economic toll from heat waves occurs largely in the form of agricultural losses related to drought, heat waves also pose a direct risk to human health. A severe pre-monsoonal heat wave took an estimated 2500 lives in India during May 2015, making it the nation’s second deadliest heat wave on record and the fifth deadliest in world records compiled by EM-DAT.

Human-produced climate change is already hiking the odds of the three weather trends highlighted by the WMO. Heat extremes are on the rise both nationally (see photos below) and globally. In many parts of the world, the heaviest precipitation events (such as the top 1% of one-day totals) are becoming even heavier. And when drought strikes, the impact is exacerbated by a warmer atmosphere, which allows more moisture to escape from parched soils and drying lakes; in turn, the ever-drier ground allows temperatures to soar even further. This year’s World Meteorological Day theme reminds us, as does a recent report from the National Academies, that the climate of our future is related to the weather events that we deal with every day.

Bob Henson







Figure 1. (below) The 29 billion-dollar global weather disasters, adjusted for inflation, as compiled by insurance broker Aon Benfield in their Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Reports. There are several more U.S. severe-weather events in the list than are shown in the accompanying map, due to space constraints: Image credit: Lauren Moyer/WU.


Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I remember well watching this scene in the theater.

It was powerful

And sad too.

Soylent Green 1973





From the previous blog-

Storms are just starting to get going in Texas and Oklahoma.



@Boco12-speaking of snowfall, I am still working on my analysis of Winter 2015-16. Here's some new stuff.

Cretak
Date: January 21-23, 2016
Severity: Major Winter Storm
Accumulations: *within NWS PAH CWA* Forecast 6-10”, actual 4-8”. Some ice reported. *outside NWS PAH CWA* Forecast 1-3’, actual 2-3’.
Alert: Winter Storm Warning
Theme Song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kfTd4KO2CY Fatal Decision\Auto Destruct by Ron Jones (copy and paste into address bar of web browser)
General Summary: A Sharp Gradient made this storm the worst of the season for the Eastern Forecasting Area, the Western Forecasting Area got virtually no snow from Winter Storm Cretak. However, in the Mid Atlantic, a blizzard happened, where Cretak dropped as much as 2-3 feet of snow. For these reasons, Cretak will be retired, never to be used again for a Winter Storm.

Dukat
Date: Monday, February 8th, 2016 to Tuesday, February 19th, 2016 (Wednesday February 10th, 2016 for quick ½ inch which may or may not be related to storm)
Severity: Minor Winter Storm
Accumulations: Expected up to 1”, Actual 1.5” (2” if Wednesday February 10th’s ½ inch was related to Dukat)
Alert: Winter Weather Advisory
Theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRjiZZyD7n4 First Attack by Ron Jones (copy and pase link into address bar in web browser)
General Summary: More of an impact-based Advisory level event, this storm earned its name because of snow that had fallen on Monday, February 8th, 2016, and for the entire day on Tuesday, February 9th, 2016, snow fell, and accumulated to 1.5”. In the early morning hours of Wednesday, February 10th, 2016, another ½ inch fell, however, it is unknown if this was a separate system or related to Winter Storm Dukat. No advisory was issued for this ½ inch.


Same error as the CFS with a huge subsurface blob of cold water on the Gulf of Guinea.

Same here.
Quoting 7. Dakster:



At least the future is LGBTQA compliant with that picture.
That is almost the funniest comment i have seen on the blog...23 pluses...wait 33...
Over an hour and no new blog. I hope everything is OK.
From SPC day 1 severe weather outlook:

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH SRN EXTENT OF OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT WHERE PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE VEERED...WARM-SECTOR
CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE REGIME BEING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ANAFRONTAL. TSTMS MAY BACKBUILD AS FAR S AS
CENTRAL/SE TX ALONG THE FRONT AND BE UNDERCUT BY ASSOCIATED CAA
WEDGE.

Question: What is a CAA and how does it undercut thunderstorms? Will Houston be okay if that happens?
Quoting 9. Grothar:

Over an hour and no new blog. I hope everything is OK.
New blog per hour?
Quoting 9. Grothar:

Over an hour and no new blog. I hope everything is OK.
It snot the H-season yet....
Quoting 9. Grothar:
Over an hour and no new blog. I hope everything is OK.

Hehe, Gro, yes, what's going on in the headquarter? I'm really worried ;-)

In honor of the World Meteorological Day some fresh heat news below (news of the strong outbreak of SAL in the Mediterranean see today's earlier blog):

Unbearable: Meteorological Department confirm rare heat wave
NAIROBI (Xinhua) -- An unprecedented heat wave has hit Kenya, with temperatures rising to over 40 degrees Celsius in some parts of the country.
The heat wave has become the talk of the East African nation as many agree that it is the first time they are experiencing such a hot weather particularly in March when heavy rains are supposed to have started. ...


India Weather: Record Heat in South India, March 2016 hottest in a decade
March 23, 2016
March 2016 seems to bring signs of torrid summer for parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Maharashtra.
The unrelenting severe heat that has gripped parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana since last few days is on the verge of breaking records of last ten years. While unprecedented high temperatures in Tirupati, Kurnool and other parts of Andhra Pradesh are highest in last years, other areas are gradually reaching towards that mark. ....



Quoting 7. Dakster:



At least the future is LGBTQA compliant with that picture.
If I dared ask for genius I would ask for such to make that comment.
U.N. expects record first-day signatures for Paris climate deal
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Wed, 23 Mar 2016 17:51 GMT
BARCELONA, March 23 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - The United Nations expects the number of countries that will sign the Paris climate change agreement at an April 22 ceremony in New York to exceed the record for the number signing up to an international accord on the day it opens, a U.N. official said on Wednesday.
The largest number to date was 119 countries that signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on Dec. 10, 1982, according to Selwin Hart, director of the U.N. secretary-general's climate change support team.
The number of countries inking the new global deal to tackle climate change, agreed by around 195 countries in December, is likely to exceed that record, Hart told reporters in New York. ...


U.S., Argentina take steps to tackle climate change
Reuters, 9 hours ago
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama and Argentina's President Mauricio Macri agreed on Wednesday to take joint steps to fight climate change including working to cut carbon emissions from air flights and integrating solar and wind power into electricity grids. ...
Quoting 10. pureet1948:

From SPC day 1 severe weather outlook:

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH SRN EXTENT OF OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT WHERE PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE VEERED...WARM-SECTOR
CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE REGIME BEING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ANAFRONTAL. TSTMS MAY BACKBUILD AS FAR S AS
CENTRAL/SE TX ALONG THE FRONT AND BE UNDERCUT BY ASSOCIATED CAA
WEDGE.

Question: What is a CAA and how does it undercut thunderstorms? Will Houston be okay if that happens?



Link
The above link is to a list of abbreviations used by the noaa.
Houston is going to be fine ...hopefully we get a bit of precipitation ...knock some pollen out.
Quoting 16. justmehouston:




Link
The above link is to a list of abbreviations used by the noaa.
Houston is going to be fine ...hopefully we get a bit of precipitation ...knock some pollen out.



IF I read this right, and IF nothing changes, justmehouston, NWS agrees with you. Look:

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
RELAX WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE 850 JET AXIS INTO NWLA/SWAR.
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MORE CHALLENGING TODAY...EXPECTED THAT AREAS
NEAR THE COAST WOULD POP OUT BUT 4-5000FT DECK EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE MORESO THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

DRY LINE HAS PUSHED OUT EAST TO NEAR A OKC-ABI-OZA LINE WITH
STRONG DOWNSLOPING GUSTY DRY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE WITH THE COLD
FRONT JUST HAVING MOVED INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE PANHANDLE. QUITE
THE BLIZZARD GOING ON WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW STORM SYSTEM IN
NW KS/WRN NE. AS THIS STORM COMPLEX LIFTS OUT TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE AND INTO SETX NEAR CLL AROUND 3 AM
AND THROUGH THE METRO AREA BY 7-8 AM...GLS AROUND 9-11 AM. PRIOR
TO THE FROPA WINDS RELAX AND MAY HAVE A WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP PROBABLY IN A SWATH FROM COLUMBUS TO CROCKETT BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM. NOT SURE YET HOW THICK IT MAY GET SO FOR NOW
WILL JUST WORD AS PATCHY BUT EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND ON
THE FOG ISSUE. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE RAINFALL...12Z SOUNDING SHOW A
STRONG TO VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. MODELS PROG THIS CAP TO REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE SW 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE REGION. WITH THE FROPA
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CAPE APPEARS LIMITED AND
GIVEN THE STRONG CAP HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER OVER THE AREAS FROM
BRENHAM TO FREEPORT SOUTHWESTWARD. AREAS NEAR CROCKETT-
GROVETON-LIVINGSTON HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH 60-70 POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. QPF DOESN`T LOOK VERY
HIGH FOR ANY OF THE AREAS AND AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE AROUND
0.10" OR LESS WITH SOME OF THE AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE THE CAP GETS
WEAKER IN THE NORTHEAST APPROACHING 0.25". WINDS SHOW A SHALLOW
LAYER WITH GOOD TURNING BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE S TO SSW (ANOTHER
GOOD SIGN OF CAPPING) SO AGAIN THOSE SAME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST
HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL.

AFTER THE FROPA THE AREA DRIES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE DEEP CAA ENDING BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER
TONIGHTS WARMTH. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WHICH TURNS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
HERE AND SLIM RAIN CHANCES RETURN EASTER SUNDAY THANKS TO
UNFAVORABLE JET SCALE LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMPARABLE TO OUR CURRENT ONE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE UTAH AREA
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD START THE MOISTURE PUMP GOING FROM
THE GULF RAMPING UP TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY GIVING
THE REGION A SHOT AT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
45

Quoting 10. pureet1948:

From SPC day 1 severe weather outlook:

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH SRN EXTENT OF OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT WHERE PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE VEERED...WARM-SECTOR
CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE REGIME BEING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ANAFRONTAL. TSTMS MAY BACKBUILD AS FAR S AS
CENTRAL/SE TX ALONG THE FRONT AND BE UNDERCUT BY ASSOCIATED CAA
WEDGE.

Question: What is a CAA and how does it undercut thunderstorms? Will Houston be okay if that happens?


Cold Air Advection. It stops the storms from developing by increasing stability when it occurs at low levels.

Houston should be fine
Quoting 10. pureet1948:

From SPC day 1 severe weather outlook:

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH SRN EXTENT OF OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT WHERE PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE VEERED...WARM-SECTOR
CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE REGIME BEING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ANAFRONTAL. TSTMS MAY BACKBUILD AS FAR S AS
CENTRAL/SE TX ALONG THE FRONT AND BE UNDERCUT BY ASSOCIATED CAA
WEDGE.

Question: What is a CAA and how does it undercut thunderstorms? Will Houston be okay if that happens?


CAA is cold air advection, which intuitively inhibits convection since that CAA is bringing in air that is increasing less buoyant and dry as the coler air filters in. Temperature advection is represented by the 2nd derivative, which is the slope of rate of change.
Quoting 12. hydrus:

It snot the H-season yet....


The Hydrus season?
Quoting 6. Gearsts:


Same error as the CFS with a huge subsurface blob of cold water on the Gulf of Guinea.

Same here.


Poor initialisation errors and Spring predictability barrier will do that
21 Comments in 5 hrs 14 minutes. HMMMMMMMMMM That is still around 1 comment every 15 minutes.
Guess when the season comes around, we will be having 15 comments per minute?

Must not be many on here in the WI area, as they are getting some decent snow tonight!

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL TO THE
CAROLINAS/COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM FLORIDA TO
THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY/RACE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...CAROLINAS/COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
STRONG EARLY-DAY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT A MODESTLY
MOIST AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH PREVALENT NEAR 60/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHEAST VA. WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS. EARLY-DAY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION MAY BE
HINDRANCES...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA PRIOR TO
THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE. PRESUMING ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR/WEAK BUOYANCY...WITH EAST-CENTRAL
NC/SOUTHEAST VA CURRENTLY APPEARING TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

...FL/SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTH GA...
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE FL PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST-NORTHWEST AS SOUTH-CENTRAL
GA/SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY-DAY
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION NEAR THE FRONT COMPLICATES SOME OF THE
DETAILS. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL EXIST NEAR/SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH DIURNAL HEATING/COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
BY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.
WHILE LARGER-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT HEATING/SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...WHILE
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND/OR
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...
AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE
REGION...FORCING FOR ASCENT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SCANT
BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
WHILE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP WILL BE MARGINAL...A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
OK/MO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
REGIME/PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH.

..GUYER.. 03/24/2016

More rain coming folks.
27. vis0

Quoting 26. Andrebrooks:


More rain coming folks.
as you posted a few days ago, hopefully not a trend as area already has had its spring floods during thus past winter.
Quoting 27. vis0:


as you posted a few days ago, hopefully not a trend as area already has had its spring floods during thus past winter.

Well we are about to see if this will verify.
Quoting 20. Dakster:



The Hydrus season?
The Hurricane Season....The hydrus season was over many many years ago....:)
Well here in Southern Wisconsin we didn't get nearly as much snow as up by Green Bay. We have gotten about 2 inches here and are expected to get a couple more before it's all set and done. The main issue with this storm is Ice. We have gotten about .25" of it so far. Good thing is that the ice threat is over.
Good Morning; still wrapping my head around the headline charts in the post above from last evening that I missed as to the recent global records. Seems like an oxymoron that a drier warmer world would also be accompanied by more precipitation as well but you can do the experiment at home when you boil a pot of water. When the heat goes up, the water evaporates and a "cloud" of steam forms in your kitchen over the boiling pot as the water evaporates. Now take that experiment outside into the "world" and look across the equatorial and sub-equatorial regions around the globe and you will see former fresh water lakes turning into mini dust bowls and drying up.
Here is the broad forecast for Conus today and Convective Outlook:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 24 2016 - 12Z Sat Mar 26 2016

...Late season winter storm continues to bring heavy snow and freezing
rain from the Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...

...Heavy rain and severe weather possible across the southern tier
states...

...Another round of rain and higher elevation snow will impact much of the
Northwest U.S. the rest of the week...

A robust winter storm system tracking through the central U.S brought
significant snowfall to portions of the Central Rockies and the
surrounding plains yesterday, with strong to severe thunderstorms spanning
from the Southern Plains to the Midwest.




And the current look and jet; nasty t-storms on the way due to the frontal low across the plains, warm Gulf flow, and current jet configuration right across the lower MS Valley region:

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE00.GIF

And one wind report in (tree down) so far this morning; straight line winds will be an issue today because of the jet embedded along the line of convection as the front pushes through:

last3hours Reports Graphic

The issue of fresh water lake evaporation and climate change in a nutshell as applied to the Great Lakes in the US:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/01/28/31933 01/climate-change-draining-great-lakes/


“The 1998 El Niño gave us a taste of what we can expect to see on the Great Lakes in a changing climate,” said Don Scavia, Co-Director of the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA). “The El Niño-driven warmer temperatures are a surrogate for what the future climate might be. The lower lake levels during that time may be a signal of what might be happening under longer term climate change.”

In other words, last winter’s record low lake levels are a glimpse of what a warmer climate in the region would do to the lakes — a glimpse that so far has lasted 15 years, set off by one hot summer.

The Calfornia drought map has been updated for the week, and the big news is: very little change. The percentage of the state that's experiencing D2 conditions dropped less than a single percentage point over the week (from 73.64% to 72.86%). Meanwhile, the worst hit areas--those seeing D3 ("Extreme") and D4 ("Exceptional") conditions--didn't change at all. And, unfortunately, that's most of the state's agricultural area.


Source: US Drought Monitor

The larger portion of the chart posted by Nea below; looks more and more like Southern California is going to become the dust bowl region of the US for the 21st Century: and then the descendants of the Oakies from the 30's can migrate back towards the East and North for more fertile grounds............

In the mid-1930s, during the Dust Bowl era, large numbers of farmers fleeing ecological disaster and the Great Depression migrated from the Great Plains and Southwest regions to California mostly along historic U.S. Route 66. More of the migrants were from Oklahoma than any other state, and a total of 15% of the Oklahoma population left for California.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Morning all. Didn't get quite as much snow as they were expecting here. Only 5 inches lol. Temps held up longer which resulted in quite a bit of sleet before the snow. With the current forecast it'll melt during the days, refreeze overnight, and probably be gone by Easter.
Quoting 38. weathermanwannabe:

The larger portion of the chart posted by Nea below; looks more and more like Southern California is going to become the dust bowl region of the US for the 21st Century: and then the descendants of the Oakies from the 30's can migrate back towards the East and North for more fertile grounds............

In the mid-1930s, during theDust Bowlera, large numbers of farmers fleeingecological disasterand theGreat Depressionmigrated from theGreat Plainsand Southwest regions to California mostly along historicU.S. Route 66. More of the migrants were from Oklahoma than any other state, and a total of 15% of the Oklahoma population left for California.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor


This Goliath El Nio was pretty much a total bust for Southern California. If afraid what the consequences will be in 2-3 years. El Nio has been a big disappointment for us in central Florida as well. Only in January have we seen any above normal rain. Fortunately we had above normal rains in the summer so we are not in any type of a drought.
Hello
Important note regarding the hurricane chart in my blog...
Thanks for those who still try about :)

Good day and carry on
Quoting 6. Gearsts:


Same error as the CFS with a huge subsurface blob of cold water on the Gulf of Guinea.

Same here.


Can you elaborate on why you think it's an error?
Still can't believe the October 2015 rain event was a multi-billion dollar disaster, but then again I lucked out being a couple hours away from the worst of it.
Quoting 40. Bucsboltsfan:



This Goliath El Ni�o was pretty much a total bust for Southern California. If afraid what the consequences will be in 2-3 years. El Ni�o has been a big disappointment for us in central Florida as well. Only in January have we seen any above normal rain. Fortunately we had above normal rains in the summer so we are not in any type of a drought.


The good news is for Florida, is that as long as we learn to conserve water better, and adjust to the reality that only a portion of the average yearly rainfall can be stored in the shallow, porous bedrock found in most of FL, then we should be fine in the future. We get temporary water shortages than can be severe during droughts due to the lack of depth/ability to store ground water and poor conservation in the past. But because the bedrock is porous and shallow, underground reserves can go from near depleted to overflowing within just one really rainy season period.

This happened in South FL this fall and winter after the severe drought over the summer brought ground water supply to near record low levels, almost empty in some places. However, a vert wet fall and winter returned ground water levels not only back to normal in just 2 months, but brought flooding issues.
Having high annual rainfall in the southeast and FL, combined with often the tendency for the rain to come down very heavy for a season, allows us to manage water loss well as long as we conserve water better as population keeps rising. And so far Florida and most of the southeast has done well, where ground water depletion has not increased at any rate over the past 50 year average.


Southern CA and southwest is in much greater danger, because average yearly precip is already low, but if the rainy season fails, which isn't particularly rainy to begin with, the dry season is so much longer and drier than it is in Florida, that the lack of rain during the rainy season like what has happened there can be devastating. On top of that, the bedrock is deep and thick, so ground water is something that accumulated over a long duration of a slow trickle, in the same way cactus stores water.

The problem is, water depletion has been extreme when drought is combined with high population, and average yearly rainfall may not be enough to even keep up with population demands, much less replenish ground water.
The SW U.S. has to come up with a radical plan to conserve water better, not washing rain water straight into the ocean in concrete washes would be a great start. They should build giant inland reservoirs, and redirect water in the washes to those locations, instead of piping it into the ocean.

We dump far too much rain into the ocean by man made means here in FL and other areas in the southeast too, but at least there will always be more heavy rain, the the SW and southern CA doesn't have that privilege...
Quoting 38. weathermanwannabe:

The larger portion of the chart posted by Nea below; looks more and more like Southern California is going to become the dust bowl region of the US for the 21st Century: and then the descendants of the Oakies from the 30's can migrate back towards the East and North for more fertile grounds............

In the mid-1930s, during the Dust Bowl era, large numbers of farmers fleeing ecological disaster and the Great Depression migrated from the Great Plains and Southwest regions to California mostly along historic U.S. Route 66. More of the migrants were from Oklahoma than any other state, and a total of 15% of the Oklahoma population left for California.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor


I lived in southern CA for a year, and unlike the plains, it already was a dust bowl in it's normal state. I lived east of San Diego, waiting for rain there seemed like an eternity, and a half inch every once in a while was worth rejoicing over.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 9. Grothar:

Over an hour and no new blog. I hope everything is OK.


In view of the next blog already, this is even more hillarious! :)