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Avoiding a Soylent Green Future by 2040; First Severe Outbreak of Spring Coming

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 12:51 PM GMT on March 23, 2016

If you want a sobering look at a potential global apocalyptic food shortage scenario, you don’t need to rent a copy of the 1973 sci-fi classic, “Soylent Green”. A non-sci-fi computer model being developed by the Global Sustainability Institute at the UK's Anglia Ruskin University predicts that catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability might lead to a virtual collapse of industrial civilization by 2040. The model explores short-term scenarios of policy decisions by simulating social-economical-environmental systems, including the impact of climate-induced drought on crop failures and food prices. The model was successfully used to simulate the multiple factors--including the great Russian drought of 2010--that made the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings more likely. These uprisings caused major unrest in at least twelve nations, and forced rulers from power in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. Dr. Aled Jones, director of the Global Sustainability Institute, said this in a June 2015 interview with Insurge Intelligence about their model:

"We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends—that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption."


Figure 1. Food riot from the sci-fi classic, “Soylent Green”.


Figure 2. Tunisians carrying loaves of bread protest high food prices and confront riot police during a demonstration against the country's new government in Tunis on January 18, 2011. Riot police fired tear gas and dispersed the rally. Global food prices spiked in late 2010 and early 2011, leading to widespread unrest and the "Arab Spring" in northern Africa and the Middle East, toppling the governments of four nations. The high food prices were primarily due to Russia's great heat wave and drought in the summer of 2010, which decimated the Russian wheat crop. Image credit: MARTIN BUREAU/AFP/Getty Images.

The good news
The good news is this is a short-term model, and was not designed to run for a period of decades. With the world now committed to de-carbonize its economy as a result of the December 2015 Paris Accord, long-term changes to the global food system are in store, making a “Soylent Green” world less likely than the model might suggest (although there is no telling what the future holds for the trendy, lab-concocted Soylent beverage). According to an October 2015 report by the World Bank, Future of Food: Shaping A Climate-Smart Global Food System, a growing and diverse spectrum of practices called "Climate Smart Agriculture" are showing it is possible to simultaneously deliver higher agricultural productivity, greater climate resilience, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Important among these are silvo-pastoral livestock systems (blending forests and pastures; "silva" is Latin for forest), agroforestry, intercropping, diversification of production systems toward less water- and emission-intensive crops, improved pasture management, better fertilizer use, minimum tillage, alternative wetting and drying of rice, biogas production from agricultural waste products/livestock manure, improved irrigation and drainage efficiency that includes lowering emissions by reducing energy consumption of pumping stations, and reducing food loss and waste. For example, Uruguay has quadrupled its agricultural production within a decade while significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food production by using some of these techniques. Of course, making these changes will cost money, but the report notes that rates of return to public investment in agricultural research and extension have been very high, averaging at least 40 percent in recent decades. We really have no choice but to make massive changes and investments in the global food system if we want to avoid the fate of the many civilizations and nations that have collapsed because of drought.



Springtime's first severe weather episode is brewing
The nation's first multi-day round of severe weather since the spring equinox will take shape from late Wednesday into Thursday (see Figure 3). A seasonably strong upper-level trough will move across the south-central and southeastern states, pulling up modest amounts of Gulf moisture. The richest moisture has been scoured out of the Gulf by earlier fronts, so instability will be less than impressive, and wind shear in the lowest levels will also be on the weak side. Still, enough total vertical wind shear will be on hand to support a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from northeast Texas to western Illinois by Wednesday evening. Storms will redevelop across the South on Thursday, perhaps extending northward into the Ohio Valley. Damaging winds and hail are the main threat on both days, but a few tornadoes are possible.


Figure 3. Severe weather outlooks for Wednesday, March 23, 2016 (left) and Thursday, March 24 (right), issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center late Tuesday night.

As of Monday, March 21, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had received 202 preliminary tornado reports for the year to date, slightly above the 11-year average (2005-2015) of 184 preliminary tornado reports for the period Jan 1 - Mar 21. Tornado activity and high-wind reports surged last month with the deadly mid-Atlantic outbreak of February 24. The main story in March has been hail--in particular, a destructive hailstorm that pounded the Fort Worth, TX, area on Thursday morning, March 17. The Insurance Council of Texas estimates that insured damages from this storm will top $600 million. That would make it one of the top-20 costliest weather disasters in Texas history. The heavy weather struck the Dallas-Fort Worth region just before and after sunrise, which is one of the least common times of day to get damaging hail in this region.

Jeff Masters (food shock); Bob Henson (severe weather)




Drought Climate Change Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Jeff and Bob. Interesting...
The computer simulation probably doesn't factor in the altered polar jet stream, which was a major influence on the Russian drought. This altered jet stream activity is going to ramp up extreme droughts and floods big time, due to the larger, more southerly Rossby waves becoming 'stuck' in the same place for much longer periods than in the past.

Just as well I like corned beef and beans.
Thanks for the update and like the Soylent Green comparison ("Soylent Green is People!").

As for the pending severe weather, this relatively mild event today and tomorrow as you have noted is just the start of the severe weather season that will peak in in May and June; with the potential for a waning El Nino, current low trajectories, and relatively high sst's in the Gulf already, we could see a strong tornado season this year as the Pacific Jet slowly lifts up to the North across tornado alley over the next several weeks:

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE01.GIF

yea there will be severe droughts like in the earths past
Thanks guys...Food prices here in the U.S.A have been rising to almost obscene levels too....Have a feeling April may rather slow as far as severe weather is concerned, but maybe more like fall for the eastern half . Its wait and see...
Thanks for the update Bob and Jeff. What have we wrought from overpopulation and burning fossil fuels?
Quoting 5. hydrus:

Thanks guys...Food prices here in the U.S.A have been rising to almost obscene levels too....Have a feeling April may rather slow as far as severe weather is concerned, but maybe more like fall for the eastern half . Its wait and see...


Haven't really noticed as I don't spend money on groceries for a whole family. I know the golden delicious apples I buy have gone up but I think they always start to do this when spring arrives.
Large hail images from the storm that hit the Dallas area on March 17, 2016. Golf ball to base ball sized hail fell over a large area. A couple damage pics. More damage pics can be found at the link. Link


Quoting 4. islander101010:

yea there will be severe droughts like in the earths past
In "earth's past", the globe was populated by maybe a few hundred thousand migratory tribal members. Nowadays, there are eight billion people who need shelter, and drinkable water, and sufficient food. Those attempting to shrug off that difference should be, and rightfully will be, ignored.
I am terrified at the prospect of a dystopian future where the climate change denier Rush Limbaugh lives in an armed fortress stockpiled with food broadcasting to the masses that climate change is still a myth. And oddly enough, there will likely be some who will continue to believe him.
Quoting 5. hydrus:

Thanks guys...Food prices here in the U.S.A have been rising to almost obscene levels too....Have a feeling April may rather slow as far as severe weather is concerned, but maybe more like fall for the eastern half . Its wait and see...


I have to disagree with "Obscene" food prices. The U.S. has some of the lowest food prices in the developed world which we as U.S. residents just take for granted. I'm surprised by how much more expensive groceries are in the UK at least when sampled in 2002, 2006, 2008 and 2010 on business trips there.

"...A non-sci-fi computer model BEING DEVELOPED by the Global Sustainability Institute at the UK's Anglia Ruskin University predicts that catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability might lead to a virtual collapse industrial civilization by 2040...".. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption...."...The good news is this is a short-term model, and was NOT designed to run for a period of decades.."

I understand that our food and clean water production/availability are critical issues and intrinsically linked to the climate. But it seems a silly and tabloid-esque approach to the issue by including in computer model, that is still in development, and not designed for long range forecasts.
Again, this is a VERY IMPORTANT issue for humankind and I feel that this small bit of writing about it was unnecessary at best. Sorry Dr. Jeff...
We might be closer to the remake of the movie "Soylent Green" than we think.

Indian River Lagoon fish kill worst in memory.
US gov and other world powers push these models on a regular if not daily basis to force the probabilities toward their favor in future events. Just ask the Russians, ie Crimea?!? Zero resistance, Zero shots fired, Zero probability the populace would not vote in favor of BIG RUSKY BROTHER protection! checkcheckcheck!!!
Quoting 11. georgevandenberghe:



I have to disagree with "Obscene" food prices. The U.S. has some of the lowest food prices in the developed world which we as U.S. residents just take for granted. I'm surprised by how much more expensive groceries are in the UK at least when sampled in 2002, 2006, 2008 and 2010 on business trips there.


Good morning...Food prices are obviously better where you live. I understand where your coming from, but I was not comparing our cost for food with the entire planets food supply. I have seen a considerable rise in foods since 2000. Some of these prices are far to much money. There are plenty of get rich quick schemes in the food industry. I didnt type that comment in haste. I know it is true.
Quoting 14. FyrtleMyrtle:

US gov and other world powers push these models on a regular if not daily basis to force the probabilities toward their favor in future events. Just ask the Russians, ie Crimea?!? Zero resistance, Zero shots fired, Zero probability the populace would not vote in favor of BIG RUSKY BROTHER protection! checkcheckcheck!!!


What are you talking about? Please detail why the Ukraine/Russia dispute over Crimea has anything to do with "probabilities toward their favor in future events" in relationship with the Russian food shortage and future possibilities of food shortages in Russia or in other places. You do a great disservice to the Ukrainian people by claiming there was no "resistance" and no shots fired.

It's governments responsibility to ensure their people can afford food and survive (hence the french revolution and arab spring). If we are projecting that future events are becoming more probable to being susceptible to food shortages due to increasing factors in climate change, then they need to prepare for those events. Nobody is talking about having Russia as "Big Brother". Think of them as a trading partner, just as they do us.

Some convection is starting to form to the NW of the Texas Panhandle on the edge of the low (currently centered over Colorado) and advecting down towards KS and OK where the jet is also converging:

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

   Read the link about the Soylent beverage. Very interesting Post there Gentlemen...
Quoting 4. islander101010:

yea there will be severe droughts like in the earths past
Yep...Almost everything that is happening now has happened in the past.....Except the seven and a half billion people that are polluting and using Earths resources at an astronomical rate.
i am not talking about the rest of east Ukraine. i am talking about Crimean peninsula where russian presence was on every street corner with an auto rifle "guarding the vote" with no faces shown, no names or identification as Russians, until they open their mouths and speck in russian to citizens or Crimea. That was a takeover surmised as an annexation and was all about Putin making a statement to the west and observers that he had the power to restore russia to former Soviet and communist glory one sphere at the time. if no real threat, why the sanctions against russian and individual russians? Why the continual and worsening bad blood btw BO admin and Putin? Future glabal power and strategic naval access to the Black sea via big brother street corner cronies with no name or race...no disrespect of course.
Quoting 19. hydrus:

Yep...Almost everything that is happening now has happened in the past.....Except the seven and a half billion people that are polluting and using Earths resources at an astronomical rate.



The RATE of increase of C02 averaged over any of the past three decades is without precedent in our planet's history
Quoting 15. hydrus:

Good morning...Food prices are obviously better where you live. I understand where your coming from, but I was not comparing our cost for food with the entire planets food supply. I have seen a considerable rise in foods since 2000. Some of these prices are far to much money. There are plenty of get rich quick schemes in the food industry. I didnt type that comment in haste. I know it is true.


Your point is much more valid for global food prices especially in the third world. I do not know how much longer the luxury of really low food prices in the U.S. will continue.

There may be many others but one gross obscenity in the U.S. is our protectionist policies for our sugar industry. Tariffs triple the price of sugar here increasing (modestly) our food costs but also maintaining an inefficent U.S. industry which should just disappear while also keeping other countries' sugar out of our markets. The ONLY winners here are U.S. sugar producers.
Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:




The RATE of increase of C02 averaged over any of the past three decades is without precedent in our planet's history
I,ll be glad if in my lifetime I see coal, oil and gas needs go down to near 0. It would be nice know when I leave the Earth that folks were helping to preserve it and the life that exists here.
Quoting 20. FyrtleMyrtle:

i am not talking about the rest of east Ukraine. i am talking about Crimean peninsula where russian presence was on every street corner with an auto rifle "guarding the vote" with no faces shown, no names or identification as Russians, until they open their mouths and speck in russian to citizens or Crimea. That was a takeover surmised as an annexation and was all about Putin making a statement to the west and observers that he had the power to restore russia to former Soviet and communist glory one sphere at the time. if no real threat, why the sanctions against russian and individual russians? Why the continual and worsening bad blood btw BO admin and Putin? Future glabal power and strategic naval access to the Black sea via big brother street corner cronies with no name or race...no disrespect of course.


If the 2010 Russian wheat shortage could be attributed to Russia "justifying" the annexation, that's a whole different ball game. Putin was sly and testing the world. That whole episode is not a good barometer of "what happens" when a country is faced with a shortage in food.

the "Annexation" was wrong and a bad proxy move.

I do support the basic argument from the blog which is "... that catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability might lead to a virtual collapse industrial civilization by 2040. The model explores short-term scenarios of policy decisions by simulating social-economical-environmental systems, including the impact of climate-induced drought on crop failures and food prices. The model was successfully used to simulate the multiple factors--including the great Russian drought of 2010--that made the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings more likely."

It's a lot of factors, but it's a sobering simulation of the impacts climate change could have in the future. There's no doubt in my mind that Arab Spring was real and partly could not have been relieved by the Russian market.

We need to mitigate factors now to prevent the collapse of western civilization. Post WWII economics are over. Recognize the threats that exists today and support robust trade with human rights.
Mother Nature and global warming does not discriminate in terms of national borders. And part of the Russian-Crimean issue is also related to some of the economic downturns in Russia as the result of falling oil prices; many government's will take aggressive action abroad or towards foreign countries (think North Korea) to distract their local populations from economic issues within. Even now, Russia is starting to scale back their military involvement in Syria, not because they are "good guys" but because it is a very costly endeavor.

Climate Change will be a big challenge in this global arena as well as we may see some nations take aggressive actions abroad in the future (either to distract their populations or to secure food/water resources) if climate issues make it difficult to feed their own populations and/or grow enough commodities for export. The developed nations (and those with a military presence/power) will have a district advantage over the poorer and undeveloped ones that will have to rely on international aid if pervasive drought and related famine affects them.

Point being that Mother Nature is going to force people to cooperate, or fight it out, at the end of the day for limited resources irrespective of who is in power...........There will be a global "big brother" in the coming decades but it might be in the form of a UN controlled food and water bank.
Quoting 18. PedleyCA:
Read the link about the Soylent beverage. Very interesting Post there Gentlemen...
Thanks for highlighting that. Here's an interesting quote from the link ... and a link within the link.
The company publishes both its official recipe and hosts a surprisingly active "DIY" forum where Soylent connoisseurs and food hackers of all persuasions trade tweaks, pro tips, and entirely new bult-from-scratch recipes catered to different audiences with names like "Liberation Chow," "Joshua Fuel," and "The Minimalist."
I think CASI-style chili is about as close to Soylent as I want to get. (That's Chili Appreciation Society International to the uninitiated.)

With the world now committed to de-carbonize its economy as a result of the December 2015 Paris Accord,
lol

Committed?

The Paris Accord is a toothless joke. The 1.5 deg. C "hopeful" target is already an impossibility, and the carbon budget remaining to avoid 2 deg. C will be spent by 2045--or earlier.

We've fiddled around so long that the problem has become one of avoiding 3 or even 4 deg. C. by century's end.

Prof. Kevin Anderson

The human race is still in deep denial about anthropogenic climate change, even those members who agree that it is real.
Quoting 22. georgevandenberghe:



Your point is much more valid for global food prices especially in the third world. I do not know how much longer the luxury of really low food prices in the U.S. will continue.

There may be many others but one gross obscenity in the U.S. is our protectionist policies for our sugar industry. Tariffs triple the price of sugar here increasing (modestly) our food costs but also maintaining an inefficent U.S. industry which should just disappear while also keeping other countries' sugar out of our markets. The ONLY winners here are U.S. sugar producers.

I dont want to wonder off topic, but I will give you an example of what has happened here...

Bread was a buck, now i pay between 2.50 to 3.50 depending on whats available.

Crackers and soup were under a dollar, now i,m payin 1.50 for a can, and between two and four bucks for crackers.

Vegatables are a big part of the bill. I pay a dollar for a bell pepper, when not long ago they were 30 or 40 cents a piece.( and I am referring to almost all veggies, not just peppers).

Turkey was about 50 cents a pound, now its a dollar or more.

I know prices fluctuate, but some of these have remained high for a very long time. Grocery bill has gone up mostly because we try to eat healthy. Too bad all the garbage food is rather cheap, and the stuff that is good is so expensive. Sugar has been a big problem as long as I can remember. It has a bad history going back to slavery.
The U.S. consumer pays less for food directly, to the point that comparisons are pretty crazy.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/ 03/cheap-eats-how-america-spends-money-on-food/273 811/

The link above is from a "shocking" report a few years back, but there are many others. Reporters write these when they are bored or a lobbyist wants one done.

If you dig into I.S. food crop and farm subsidies, you'll slowly turn into a leftist or a nihilist or something.
Why not take the headline to the ultimate conclusion, such as Climate Change caused the terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels, San Bernardino and more. Now don,t get upset about this all I did was connect the dots.

Quoting 28. hydrus:

I dont want to wonder off topic, but I will give you an example of what has happened here...

Bread was a buck, now i pay between 2.50 to 3.50 depending on whats available.

Crackers and soup were under a dollar, now i,m payin 1.50 for a can, and between two and four bucks for crackers.

Vegatables are a big part of my bill. I pay a dollar for a bell pepper, when not long ago they were 30 or 40 cents a piece.( and I am referring to almost all veggies, not just peppers).

Turkey was about 50 cents a pound, now its a dollar or more.

I know prices fluctuate, but some of these have remained high for a very long time. My grocery bill has gone up mostly because we try to eat healthy. Too bad all the garbage food is rather cheap, and the stuff that is good is so expensive. Sugar has been a big problem as long as I can remember. It has a bad history going back to slavery.




Meat prices have been stable here in DC. I've paid $2.50 for bread for the past several years. I don't track cracker and soup prices. Broccoli.. I don't remember the price but also don't remember changes. Milk, $3.30/gallon for few years. Pork, around 2.5$/pound. Potatoes, 0.50/pound Breakfast cereal, around $3/pound (I don't eat it). Apples.. just got a shock, $4/pound for honeycrisps but after paying I looked back and found they were twice as expensive as any other. Sausage $3.5/pound. I grow a lot of my own lettuce, corn and tomatoes and eat them in season. All three kids have ON THEIR OWN (after resisting for years BTW) decided to shift away from the high fat/salt fast food crap they used to demand.
delete incomplete duplicate
Quoting 32. Xulonn:



Actually, all you did is demonstrate that your vocabulary is quite limited, and you cannot distinguish be

It is a good thing you don't need a good vocabulary to make nice cash in America. Ain't America great

Windy here today, N@14/G30, temps is 62.8F(9:32PDT)
Quoting 31. georgevandenberghe:




Meat prices have been stable here in DC. I've paid $2.50 for bread for the past several years. I don't track cracker and soup prices. Broccoli.. I don't remember the price but also don't remember changes. Milk, $3.30/gallon for few years. Pork, around 2.5$/pound. Potatoes, 0.50/pound Breakfast cereal, around $3/pound (I don't eat it). Apples.. just got a shock, $4/pound for honeycrisps but after paying I looked back and found they were twice as expensive as any other. Sausage $3.5/pound. I grow a lot of my own lettuce, corn and tomatoes and eat them in season. All three kids have ON THEIR OWN (after resisting for years BTW) decided to shift away from the high fat/salt fast food crap they used to demand.

Yep.. Bottom line, grocery bill has increased 50% since 2000..Inflation certainly factors in, but not as much as the increase in some of the food prices..Remember that I live sorta in the boonies, so the stores can use the location to there advantage...:)
$14 a kilo for fresh blueberries in the UK, so I buy frozen for smoothies. The price of nuts is just, well, nuts. $15 for a kilo of almonds. I bet they don't pay that in California.
Quoting 30. nymore:
Why not take the headline to the ultimate conclusion, such as Climate Change caused the terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels, San Bernardino and more. Now don,t get upset about this all I did was connect the dots.




Actually, all you did is demonstrate that your vocabulary seems to be quite limited, and that you cannot distinguish between words like "caused" and "influenced." Words such as "contributed" and "factors" also seem to be missing from your vocabulary and comprehension.

I don't know what imaginary dots you connected, but they obviously don't exist in the real world.
Quoting 31. georgevandenberghe:




Meat prices have been stable here in DC. I've paid $2.50 for bread for the past several years. I don't track cracker and soup prices. Broccoli.. I don't remember the price but also don't remember changes. Milk, $3.30/gallon for few years. Pork, around 2.5$/pound. Potatoes, 0.50/pound Breakfast cereal, around $3/pound (I don't eat it). Apples.. just got a shock, $4/pound for honeycrisps but after paying I looked back and found they were twice as expensive as any other. Sausage $3.5/pound. I grow a lot of my own lettuce, corn and tomatoes and eat them in season. All three kids have ON THEIR OWN (after resisting for years BTW) decided to shift away from the high fat/salt fast food crap they used to demand.



If you like honeycrisp try Sweetango and the folks who developed those put a new one out 2 years ago called mn55 ( they say is better than honeycrisp) it will get a different name when commercially available in a few years
Really impressive snowstorm in the Denver-Boulder (CO) area this morning. Yesterday afternoon it was 73F in Denver! Last night at 2 AM, the streets were wet in Louisville (between Boulder and Denver), with snow just starting to fall. At 10:30 AM, we now have 15" on my back patio, and it's still snowing heavily as another band pivots through. Quite a wet storm for this area, with liquid water totals approaching or topping 2". Time to try shoveling!

My back patio, 10 AM Wednesday
And another related point as mentioned in the current Blog; for those with children and grand children headed to college in the coming decades, a degree from a good Agricultural Science university program could end up in a very rewarding career and potentially lucrative career; we have one in Tallahassee and I went to their open house last year. Tons of students in the program (and international students) showing us the latest in agricultural techniques which included planting techniques in closer rows, plastic sheeting in rows along the roots, and "drip" irrigation practices using much less water (about twice a day for 1/2 an hour) to get maximum production with reduced water use.

The Global agri-culture companies are on this issue, with some specifically noted examples in the Blog post, and a degree-area of study that many college bound young people might not be aware of as a growing field (pun intended).
Quoting 39. BobHenson:

Really impressive snowstorm in the Denver-Boulder (CO) area this morning. Yesterday afternoon it was 73�F in Denver! Last night at 2 AM, the streets were wet in Louisville (between Boulder and Denver), with snow just starting to fall. At 10:30 AM, we now have 15" on my back patio, and it's still snowing heavily as another band pivots through. Quite a wet storm for this area, with liquid water totals approaching or topping 2". Time to try shoveling!

My back patio, 10 AM Wednesday
Start of a new Ice Age.?....jk....really....jk...:)
When one is going to criticize another's vocabulary as limited, one should do so with a vocabulary that is not limited...
Quoting 39. BobHenson:

Really impressive snowstorm in the Denver-Boulder (CO) area this morning. Yesterday afternoon it was 73�F in Denver! Last night at 2 AM, the streets were wet in Louisville (between Boulder and Denver), with snow just starting to fall. At 10:30 AM, we now have 15" on my back patio, and it's still snowing heavily as another band pivots through. Quite a wet storm for this area, with liquid water totals approaching or topping 2". Time to try shoveling!

My back patio, 10 AM Wednesday


Yes! I'm in Superior and we're seeing similar totals. Even last night, it was in the 50s by midnight after such a warm and sunny day.
Quoting 28. hydrus:

I dont want to wonder off topic, but I will give you an example of what has happened here...

Bread was a buck, now i pay between 2.50 to 3.50 depending on whats available.

Crackers and soup were under a dollar, now i,m payin 1.50 for a can, and between two and four bucks for crackers.

Vegatables are a big part of my bill. I pay a dollar for a bell pepper, when not long ago they were 30 or 40 cents a piece.( and I am referring to almost all veggies, not just peppers).

Turkey was about 50 cents a pound, now its a dollar or more.

I know prices fluctuate, but some of these have remained high for a very long time. My grocery bill has gone up mostly because we try to eat healthy. Too bad all the garbage food is rather cheap, and the stuff that is good is so expensive. Sugar has been a big problem as long as I can remember. It has a bad history going back to slavery.




I'm with hydrus on this. It's insane. I try to eat healthy with fresh veggies as much as I can. It boggles my mind that it costs a buck a bell pepper but I can go to the frozen food section and get veggies less expensively, including a pre-cut bag of bell peppers for a little over a buck? Bread, I try and make on my own. Soup I always make my own. Veggie prices should be down as gas is down. I've tried some farmers markets and they are more expensive than the grocery store. Cant wait until I get some land so I can start planting. I'm jealous of george, aqua and skyepony when it comes to that ...and totally jealous of plantmoretrees
45. vis0
Good to see certain members picking up on the science facts, in this case yes there where severe droughts in the past and THOSE "SEVERE" where WITHOUT the INFLUENCE OF TODAY'S rapid aGW/GW..

Now since recently even skeptics agree that the Earth is warming, the next hurdle is to present to the public that the skeptic$ idea that this warming its part of a natural cycle is incorrect.

If one thinks that its part of a cycle to become warmer or have the build up of greenhouse gases THIS FAST, then lets go back and read what period on Earth with humans on board...
 

(very important factor to include humans in any past example/sample otherwise if for whatever reason its discovered that Earth is losing its Atmosphere(s) one can say that Earth at one time had no atmosphere{very!!! beginning). Then tell the public that there is no need to worry " 'cause Earth in the past had no atmosphere".)
 

...had such a rise in co2 and other greenhouse gases.  Please find actual scientific research (which big uncaring company's money could easily fund such a scientific finding showing that Earth with humans on board had even a fraction of this warmth.    HEY,  IF those companies knew that such a time existed it would have been researched and published on gold paper. But no such work has been done 'cause real research shows no such time existed on Earth and any other comparable warming was over a much longer time span AND STILL LIVING things on Earth suffered.
Quoting 37. Xulonn:





Actually, all you did is demonstrate that your vocabulary seems to be quite limited, and that you cannot distinguish between words like "caused" and "influenced." Words such as "contributed" and "factors" also seem to be missing from your vocabulary and comprehension.

I don't know what imaginary dots you connected, but they obviously don't exist in the real world.


Now that you mention it and I think back to school, could it be my vocabulary skills influenced, contributed or were factors in my getting low grades in english.

Wow thank you so much for bringing my attention to it, now do you have any late breaking news on the Hindenburg or the Lindbergh baby.

Have a good day everyone
Emergency Readiness for People with Disabilities
By: Portlight , 5:03 PM GMT on March 23, 2016




For the 57 million Americans with disabilities, medical emergencies and natural disasters present real challenges. Learn how people with disabilities, their families, and first responders can plan ahead for a disaster.

57 million Americans have a disability, and anyone can be at risk for developing or acquiring one in their lifetime through illness, injury, or aging. People with disabilities may face barriers to everyday activities, such as reading small print, understanding instructions, getting to places or hearing what is said.

This is particularly relevant when disasters strike and people are forced to leave or be confined in their home.
Quoting 42. NttyGrtty:
When one is going to criticize another's vocabulary as limited, one should do so with a vocabulary that is not limited...
I don't know if you are a science and AGW/CC "denier" or not, but you seem to relish using their easily exposed nonsensical tactics.

Climate Denier Tactic #4: Impossible Expectations...

Without limit means infinite. No one has an infinite vocabulary - and if one had an infinite vocabulary, it could not be expressed on one comment.

Climate Denier Tactic #7: False Equivalence...

The presence of limits in one situation does not mean that there is an "equivalent" unlimited quantity for the same factor in another, opposing situation.
Quoting 48. Xulonn:

I don't know if you are a science and AGW/CC "denier" or not, but you seem to relish using their easily exposed nonsensical tactics.

Climate Denier Tactic #4: Impossible Expectations...

Without limit means infinite. No one has an infinite vocabulary - and if one had an infinite vocabulary, it could not be expressed on one comment.

Climate Denier Tactic #7: False Equivalence...

The presence of limits in one situation does not mean that there is an "equivalent" unlimited quantity for the same factor in another, opposing situation.

Without limit means infinite. No one has an infinite vocabulary - and if one had an infinite vocabulary, it could not be expressed on one comment.


Indeed...Finite vocab was a problem for me cause I couldnt explain how I felt about world and life events...This is why I turned to math and music...I communicate much better now...:)
God lord almighty .....could we please have a moratorium on the global warming topic until after, oh, I dunno, say Doomsday?
Quoting 50. JRRP7:

God lord almighty .....could we please have a moratorium on the global warming topic until after, oh, I dunno, say Doomsday?
Maybe because the Good Lord Almighty would like people to stop trashing the planet. Similar to someone dumping toxic trash in your yard.
Yeah, tell the best communicator of AGW Science and its role in the Lives of everyone today, what to post in His own entry.

Yeah, thats a great idea.

Heres a tip, start yer OWN wunderblog and post on whatever suits yer fancy.

Thanx'
Beautiful picture Boco12!
Quoting 44. justmehouston:




I'm with hydrus on this. It's insane. I try to eat healthy with fresh veggies as much as I can. It boggles my mind that it costs a buck a bell pepper but I can go to the frozen food section and get veggies less expensively, including a pre-cut bag of bell peppers for a little over a buck? Bread, I try and make on my own. Soup I always make my own. Veggie prices should be down as gas is down. I've tried some farmers markets and they are more expensive than the grocery store. Cant wait until I get some land so I can start planting. I'm jealous of george, aqua and skyepony when it comes to that ...and totally jealous of plantmoretrees




You guys do know you can easily grow your own veges right? Even with very little space it is possible to have a flourishing garden.
Quoting 55. EyewallPaul:




You guys do know you can easily grow your own veges right? Even with very little space it is possible to have a flourishing garden.


And I do that ...however I am really really limited as to space out front of the condo ..and then there's the dang HOA's that wont allow for it ...heck, not even allowed to bbq here!
Quoting 55. EyewallPaul:




You guys do know you can easily grow your own veges right? Even with very little space it is possible to have a flourishing garden.
No paul, who would ever think of that......We grow some things. Unfortunately bell peppers just do poorly here. Not sure why.
I will attempt* to take the children down to see the Cherry Blossoms this Friday.I know it will be crowded for a number of reason.1) Because after all it is the cherry blossom trees and 2) we will be having nice weather.They have also stepped security up so some places where we could park last year are now blocked off and taking the train is a disaster as well.
Quoting 44. justmehouston:




I'm with hydrus on this. It's insane. I try to eat healthy with fresh veggies as much as I can. It boggles my mind that it costs a buck a bell pepper but I can go to the frozen food section and get veggies less expensively, including a pre-cut bag of bell peppers for a little over a buck? Bread, I try and make on my own. Soup I always make my own. Veggie prices should be down as gas is down. I've tried some farmers markets and they are more expensive than the grocery store. Cant wait until I get some land so I can start planting. I'm jealous of george, aqua and skyepony when it comes to that ...and totally jealous of plantmoretrees



Until a few years ago I did not grow much in my previous house's yard. It was covered with trees and too shady. But I've always had a community garden plot somewhere.

Quoting 58. washingtonian115:

I will attempt* to take the children down to see the Cherry Blossoms this Friday.I know it will be crowded for a number of reason.1) Because after all it is the cherry blossom trees and 2) we will be having nice weather.They have also stepped security up so some places where we could park last year are now blocked off and taking the train is a disaster as well.


I always took Metro to Smithsonian station and then walked the rest of the way. It's a really pleasant walk in blossom season. I assumed parking would be impossible.
Quoting 57. hydrus:

No paul, who would ever think of that......We grow some things. Unfortunately bell peppers just do poorly here. Not sure why.


I grow my bell peppers in large pots. My biggest problem with them is broad mites which attack the new growth and make the leaves small and crinkley and overall unhealthy. Haven't figured out a good remedy although summerweight oil helps.

Just in for a quick fly by!

Justmehouston: Check your email. Gotta run!

Lindy
Heard it yesterday somewhere,

"at this time of year at the end of the day, everyone's hands should smell like dirt"

The garden here is prepared.

Ph and fertility all in the green.


Quoting 48. Xulonn:
I don't know if you are a science and AGW/CC "denier" or not, but you seem to relish using their easily exposed nonsensical tactics.

Climate Denier Tactic #4: Impossible Expectations...

Without limit means infinite. No one has an infinite vocabulary - and if one had an infinite vocabulary, it could not be expressed on one comment.

Climate Denier Tactic #7: False Equivalence...

The presence of limits in one situation does not mean that there is an "equivalent" unlimited quantity for the same factor in another, opposing situation.


Relax. You got system glitched while in mid attack on someone's vocabulary. That's funny. No tactics involved, just a outward chuckle typed the way I saw it. I was unaware there was a complete set of numbered climate denier tactics. Please send a link. I would love to buy the book...
Quoting 52. hydrus:

Maybe because the Good Lord Almighty would like people to stop trashing the planet. Similar to someone dumping toxic trash in your yard.

I put that because days ago someone while we were talk about hurricane season said this---
For the love of......could we please, please have a moratorium on the characterizations of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season until after, oh, I dunno, say Thanksgiving?---- and now when you are talking about global warming I said what I said... so do not take seriously
Quoting 56. justmehouston:



And I do that ...however I am really really limited as to space out front of the condo ..and then there's the dang HOA's that wont allow for it ...heck, not even allowed to bbq here!


Where the heck do you live?
Quoting 63. Patrap:

Heard it yesterday somewhere,

"at this time of year at the end of the day, everyones' hands should smell like dirt"

The garden here is prepared.

Ph and fertility all in the green.





Indeed, I took advantage of the drying conditions today (a couple of inches of rain are forecast for tomorrow) and began dividing and separating my overgrown strawberry patch into more manageable narrow elevated rows. I was very pleased by the abundant activity of earth worms in my soil.
Quoting 65. JRRP7:


I put that because days ago someone while we were talk about hurricane season said this---
For the love of......could we please, please have a moratorium on the characterizations of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season until after, oh, I dunno, say Thanksgiving?---- and now when you are talking about global warming I said what I said... so do not take seriously
Its alright. Typing a thought is not easy sometimes...I try and fail regularly..
Quoting 67. gr8lakebreeze:



Indeed, I took advantage of the drying conditions today (a couple of inches of rain are forecast for tomorrow) and began dividing and separating my overgrown strawberry patch into more manageable narrow elevated rows. I was very pleased by the abundant activity of earth worms in my soil.


When ˆI turned everything over a few weeks back and elevated the Mater and Bell Pepper Rows ,,I also had beaucoup Earthworms.

Good to know as City Park has fishing close by.


Good luck and happy Hours for ya too.
Quoting 49. hydrus:
Without limit means infinite. No one has an infinite vocabulary - and if one had an infinite vocabulary, it could not be expressed on one comment.


Indeed...Finite vocab was a problem for me cause I couldnt explain how I felt about world and life events...This is why I turned to math and music...I communicate much better now...:)
Obviously, math & music - which are related - worked for you. I read almost all of your comments, Hydrus, and and I plus many of them. I appreciate your contributions to this forum.

With regard to vocabulary, I hope you realized that I was being snarky - most people know the difference between "caused" and "influenced" but choose to misquote or misuse the word "caused, because in AGW/CC attribution science, scientists don't use that word. Also, since you are into math, I'm sure you realize that "proofs" are used in math and philosophy, but seldom if ever in science.

Often, an AGW/CC denialist will use (or misuse) words such as "caused" in a feeble attempt to ridicule Dr. Masters and the rest of the world's climate scientists. They ignore the actual word "influence," and seem to pretend that it doesn't exist - hence my snarky response. Deniers will also use phrases such as "their is no proof" to counter the revelation of "overwhelming or strong evidence." In such cases, they are indicating either that they are buying into denialist propaganda and likely in denial, or perhaps choosing to remain purposefully ignorant of the truth.

I have watched many regulars here come to accept the reality of AGW/CC and it's likely consequences over the past five or six years, and signed up and joined the anti-denialist battles in 2012, mainly at Dr.Rood's blog.

There are a few hard-core deniers left, but most of them are weather buffs who do not appear to be well-versed in science. Those few get slapped down with science and reality -based information regularly, but the huge battles and mass bannings that we saw even a couple of years ago seem to be gone.

Now, most regulars and old-timers seem to respect the science-based postings of Dr. Masters and Bob Henson, as well as comments related to AGW/CC and its consequences by the many knowledgeable people who participate here. The discussions these days are more often about the science, and less about countering denialist b.s.and blather. I like the way this blog/forum is evolving!
Quoting 50. JRRP7:

God lord almighty .....could we please have a moratorium on the global warming topic until after, oh, I dunno, say Doomsday?

Answering that question is beyond the pay grade of those of us who comment on this blog. You'll have to take that up with management, i.e., Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
US grain yields and production at record levels (improved strains and GMOs since the 1980s).




40% of the US corn crop is used for ethanol production. Almost all of the remaining corn is used for livestock feed.
That doesn't look remotely like a wedge.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NWRN MO / EXTREME NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231807Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING
THE 20-21Z PERIOD. THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO
A WEDGE-SHAPED AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E OF
AN ARCING DRYLINE AND BOUNDED TO THE N BY A STATIONARY FRONT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD
FROM SERN NEB SEWD TO THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA. 17Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WITH
AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING E AND SEWD INTO ERN KS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE LOW. COLD AIR N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
FEATURES THE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ARCING DRYLINE AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE 100 KT H5 JET STREAK OVER OK/KS
NOSES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING IN
THE CAPPING INVERSION. ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AROUND
21Z. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY MATURE INTO
SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE NERN
EXTENSION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C OR HIGHER/ WILL FOSTER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS OF PARCELS WITH ANY
SUPERCELL RESIDING IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES
WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE 22-00Z PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016
Greetings !

Hot and very Dry here at 11n 61W, Trinidad.
Water restrictions in force and reservoirs are low after a shortfall in rains during Jun-Dec rainy season.
Bush and forest fires in many areas and Helicopters dropping water near houses where needed.

But the really Bad news, is that my Calabash Tree still has plenty leaves on.
And as Everyone knows, that means the Dry Season is not really here yet !!

This is going to be a Long, Hard one.....
Quoting 71. ACSeattle:


Answering that question is beyond the pay grade of those of us who comment on this blog. You'll have to take that up with management, i.e., Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

ok but... what do you think about this ?...

Quoting 74. pottery:

Greetings !

Hot and very Dry here at 11n 61W, Trinidad.
Water restrictions in force and reservoirs are low after a shortfall in rains during Jun-Dec rainy season.
Bush and forest fires in many areas and Helicopters dropping water near houses where needed.

But the really Bad news, is that my Calabash Tree still has plenty leaves on.
And as Everyone knows, that means the Dry Season is not really here yet !!

This is going to be a Long, Hard one.....


Quoting 64. NttyGrtty:


Relax. You got system glitched while in mid attack on someone's vocabulary. That's funny. No tactics involved, just a outward chuckle typed the way I saw it. I was unaware there was a complete set of numbered climate denier tactics. Please send a link. I would love to buy the book...
I am muy tranquilo - blood pressure is down and I'm enjoying the day.

However, I often take the opportunity to joust with denialists - who have nothing but b.s. and blather to support their positions and statements. It is simply fun and games for me. Probably similar to the challenge and fun of a hurricane buff guessing how many storms there will be in a season.

There are many lists of AGW/CC denier tactics, and I used two of the prominent ones, but made up "ranking" numbers.

Skeptical Science, in it's "Making Sense of Climate Science Denial" MOOC, listed and defined five tactics used by denialists. Based on the information in that course, John Cook and Margaret Crane just put up a great new post at Skeptical Science today titled How to inoculate people against Donald Trump's fact bending claims.

The posts tells how a careful analysis by Politifact found that 78% of Trump’s statements were "Mostly False," "False," or “Pants on Fire” (the most extreme form of false), discusses the AGW/CC aspect of it, and why people believe such lies and b.s. It also discusses the serious difficulty of changing the minds of hard core Trump followers, but then goes into discussing the counter-tactic of "inoculating" others against the lies and propaganda that Trump spouts regularly.
Only a sliver of convection now over OK and no storm/wind reports so far in the last 3 hours; while this evening might bring some t-storms so far so good:


Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

last3hours Reports Graphic


Quoting 79. weathermanwannabe:

Only a sliver of convection now over OK and no storm/wind reports so far in the last 3 hours; while this evening might bring some t-storms so far so good:


Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

last3hours Reports Graphic





I think you're seeing wildfire smoke in Kansas.

Quoting 80. 62901IL:



I think you're seeing wildfire smoke in Kansas.
Great catch...................Forgot about the fires there and how the smoke shows up on radar but I think the streak is from fires in North OK or North TX. Thank You.
Quoting 72. canyonboy:

US grain yields and production at record levels (improved strains and GMOs since the 1980s).




40% of the US corn crop is used for ethanol production. Almost all of the remaining corn is used for livestock feed.

Thanks for posting this. If you were to plot the yields going back to the 1930s and 40s, you would see truly amazing gains in land productivity. Those yields are still going up BTW, I just don't buy that we will not have enough to feed ourselves and the world. But the doomsayers have been singing the same tune since the 60s and have been wrong again and again.
As a former Colorado resident, I know the importance of water conservation...so this weather event is a blessing for many in that beautiful state. Not so much for motorists.
Quoting 35. hydrus:

Yep.. Bottom line, my grocery bill has increased 50% since 2000..Inflation certainly factors in, but not as much as the increase in some of the food prices..Remember that I live sorta in the boonies, so the stores can use the location to there advantage...:)


From 2000 to 2016, compounded inflation alone gives a 38% price increase (ref).
A 12% increase *above* inflation over 15 years isn't that bad (less than 1% per year), especially compared to heathcare costs (more than 10% per year increases)!

Of course, even modest annual price increases add up quickly if you're on a fixed income. Inflation is one reason why wage stagnation is such a big deal.
Winds are gusting over 50 mph in W TX right now.
Quoting 83. Greg01:


Thanks for posting this. If you were to plot the yields going back to the 1930s and 40s, you would see truly amazing gains in land productivity. Those yields are still going up BTW, I just don't buy that we will not have enough to feed ourselves and the world. But the doomsayers have been singing the same tune since the 60s and have been wrong again and again.

Over the same time period in those graphs human population has gone from around 3 billion to over 7 billion. See the problem now?
Quoting 77. RitaEvac:





LOLOL, looks exactly like my tree.
Thanks !
Quoting 83. Greg01:


Thanks for posting this. If you were to plot the yields going back to the 1930s and 40s, you would see truly amazing gains in land productivity. Those yields are still going up BTW, I just don't buy that we will not have enough to feed ourselves and the world. But the doomsayers have been singing the same tune since the 60s and have been wrong again and again.


One key problem is that, while land productivity has increased linearly (constant increase per unit time), human population has increased exponentially (proportional / % increase per unit time). To be fair, the trend in human population growth *might* be leveling out.

The other *big* problem is that modern agricultural productivity is largely predicated on oil, natural gas derived nitrogen fertilizer, mined phosphorus, and fossil ground water. As the article points out, increasing ag yields while *decreasing* emissions is a big problem that many people (and countries) are working on.

Behind those flashy graphics of rising yields lies a lot of GHG emissions and unsustainable use of scarce resources. In addition, the effect of 2-4 deg C climate change on world agricultural productivity remains to be seen.
Quoting 6. Guysgal:

Thanks for the update Bob and Jeff. What have we wrought from overpopulation and burning fossil fuels?




Conquest, War, Famine & Death
Quoting 89. helmingstay:



One key problem is that, while land productivity has increased linearly (constant increase per unit time), human population has increased exponentially (proportional / % increase per unit time). To be fair, the trend in human population growth *might* be leveling out.

The other *big* problem is that modern agricultural productivity is largely predicated on oil, natural gas derived nitrogen fertilizer, mined phosphorus, and fossil ground water. As the article points out, increasing ag yields while *decreasing* emissions is a big problem that many people (and countries) are working on.

Behind those flashy graphics of rising yields lies a lot of GHG emissions and unsustainable use of scarce resources. In addition, the effect of 2-4 deg C climate change on world agricultural productivity remains to be seen.

On the contrary - the advantage of GMO crops is that they have been modified incrementally to require less fertilizer, less water, (drought resistant) less pesticides, etc. etc. A lot of research has been done in this area and efficiencies are still being realized. These gains have been largely realized in the U.S. There's no reason why these gains can't be replicated elsewhere.
Quoting 78. Xulonn:
I am muy tranquilo - blood pressure is down and I'm enjoying the day.

However, I often take the opportunity to joust with denialists - who have nothing but b.s. and blather to support their positions and statements. It is simply fun and games for me. Probably similar to the challenge and fun of a hurricane buff guessing how many storms there will be in a season.

There are many lists of AGW/CC denier tactics, and I used two of the prominent ones, but made up "ranking" numbers.

Skeptical Science, in it's "Making Sense of Climate Science Denial" MOOC, listed and defined five tactics used by denialists. Based on the information in that course, John Cook and Margaret Crane just put up a great new post at Skeptical Science today titled How to inoculate people against Donald Trump's fact bending claims.

The posts tells how a careful analysis by Politifact found that 78% of Trump’s statements were "Mostly False," "False," or “Pants on Fire” (the most extreme form of false), discusses the AGW/CC aspect of it, and why people believe such lies and b.s. It also discusses the serious difficulty of changing the minds of hard core Trump followers, but then goes into discussing the counter-tactic of "inoculating" others against the lies and propaganda that Trump spouts regularly.


Only five? Aw man, I was hoping for a whole book. I'm no Trump fan, but things could get worse than Trump. Try this possible scenario on for size: Due to the threat from some old white guys like me to not vote at all rather than vote for Trump, Sanders gets the idea that he can win as an independent so once he doesn't get the Democratic nomination, he declares as an independent. The result: neither Trump, Clinton, nor Sander get the minimum electoral votes. All three would then go to the house for a vote with each state's contingent getting a single vote. This will take years and cost hundreds of lives. Meanwhile, the top two Vice Presidential candidates go to the Senate for a vote with each Senator getting one vote. Assuming Trump's VP candidate is in the top 2 (a valid assumption, I think. Sanders would split the vote and cost Clinton the outright win, but probably not wash Trump all the way to third. As you mentioned, there are a lot of the Trumpadoodles out there). So, we end up with Trumps VP candidate as acting President while the House spins out of control trying to get both sides from each state to agree on something (which, as demonstrated, in nigh impossible). Trump is bad but there are things worse...
I should fire the grill up this afternoon.Its very nice outside but unfortunately the steaks are frozen solid so we'll have to wait until Thursday.
95. SLU
Ryan Maue added,




Andrew Freedman @afreedma

Climate change poses a risk to Donald Trump's properties, but he denies it exists

_________________________________________________ ________

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 5h5 hours ago

Warren Buffet isn't a "big believer" in climate risk to his portfolio either.
Best part of the wet late Winter and early Spring here..

Huge and cheap crawfish to burl' !

Saltines still win over Soylent green, or yellow for that matter.




Hi folks. As I don't have much time currently, here just a short dusty hello as the Sahara is reaching out for southern Europe thanks to powerful low "Gaby" in the Mediterranean:


This morning in Greek Corfu/Ionian Sea/Mediterranean. Photo from Giannis Gasteratos at Severe Weather Greece.

Many more pics and videos from Italy and Greece at Severe Weather Europe and Meteo Europe.


Southern Italy in the dust.


Outbreak of SAL to the north. Source.


Stormy and dusty low "Gaby" over central and eastern Mediterranean. And the surface map for tomorrow here. You see, high "Joachim" which has been hovering over western Europe already for weeks (causing quite chilly and dry weather for me in Germany), is still around but now moving towards Spain.
Current global food production trajectory won't meet 2050 needs
Link
Link to the published article.
Link
There's a "Whole Lotta SAL" off of Africa getting caught up in the flow of Gaby as noted by Barbamz below: 




Vance Air Force Base radar is showing some incredible smoke from the wildfires. Currently under Critical fire conditions here in Norman, hope nothing like what's going on in KS happens in the OKC area.
Quoting 95. SLU:

Ryan Maue added,




Andrew Freedman @afreedma

Climate change poses a risk to Donald Trump's properties, but he denies it exists

_________________________________________________ ________

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 5h5 hours ago

Warren Buffet isn't a "big believer" in climate risk to his portfolio either.

That's a cute piece of equivalence, but someone may wish to remind Maue that there's a bit of a difference between Buffet and Trump: the former is an investor, while the latter is seeking the most powerful office on the planet.
Quoting 96. Gearsts:




Scott was still on the El Niño bandwagon yesterday. I am no expert or pretend to be one but that looks like El Niño is going bye bye.
Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Hey Jeff and Bob looking forwards to that blog on the ENSO very soon
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

I should fire the grill up this afternoon.Its very nice outside but unfortunately the steaks are frozen solid so we'll have to wait until Thursday.




I thaw frozen meat and fish in a half hour by putting it in lukewarm water in plastic bags. I prefer to cook fish
from this initial state because it takes less time to cook and cooks more evenly when it starts out warm in the center. My cooking goal with 1" thick Mahi fillets is rock hard to on the plate in 45 minutes.
Quoting 106. wunderkidcayman:

Hey Jeff and Bob looking forwards to that blog on the ENSO very soon


Have some patience my friend. It is still only March.
I'm glad to finally see the issue of over population being addressed....After reading so many post here regarding aGW, our use and misuse of earth's valuable resources, and how we are basically destroying the planet the discussion of over population should rank as oh, I don't know, the first or second most important topic? I'm just going to say what no one wants to say or feels that it would be inappropriate to say. Stop over populating. Many of the problems we are facing or will face in the not to distant future are self-inflicted. I don't know what the answer to this dilemma is but, if this very delicate topic is not addressed I am afraid that the earth and humankind are in deep ****.
Quoting 92. Greg01:


On the contrary - the advantage of GMO crops is that they have been modified incrementally to require less fertilizer, less water, (drought resistant) less pesticides, etc. etc. A lot of research has been done in this area and efficiencies are still being realized. These gains have been largely realized in the U.S. There's no reason why these gains can't be replicated elsewhere.

Do you have a source other than Monsanto for that?

GMO mostly focused on making money on chemicals and not so much water efficacy. Much GMO was directed at crops being able to live through a spraying of Round-Up, which has greatly increased the use of Round Up across the world as these seeds are already being sold to any country that hasn't outlawed them. They have also caused a mutation in the Weed Kingdom known as Super Weeds that too have become immune to Round Up. Some GMO was also directed toward getting plants to produce or replicate human made pesticides so they wouldn't need to be applied, these are now being outlawed in Europe for killing the bees and preserving biodiversity. If the bees die, most of us will too.



Guidance has been trending wetter in North and Central Florida where rainfall deficits are highest, which is good news. We are half of average for the month, and about 5 inches below average YTD.

After this bout of late season cold, dry weather is now ending, I'm happy to see spring returning with warmth and rainfall.
112. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (Final product NOT an official product of either, do not use coulorkey as if 100% correct)
D&T:: 201603231500u_232030_COnUS+s
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery.


WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/htmnuzxGxIE (org 922x605)

unrelated to Wx NOTE:: oops corrected an incorrect dimension in the embed code (odds are i had it in that incorrect manner for the last 6 VIDs...i think even posted it on a BBrian blogbyte embed example comment (didn't want to go edit it as it will become worse). Make sure both pairs of dimension entries match. i had 628x428 then 628x488 corrected the 488 to 428.)

Check NOAA radios have them ON.
113. OKsky
Quoting 110. Skyepony:


Do you have a source other than Monsanto for that?

GMO mostly focused on making money on chemicals and not so much water efficacy. Much GMO was directed at crops being able to live through a spraying of Round-Up, which has greatly increased the use of Round Up across the world as these seeds are already being sold to any country that hasn't outlawed them. They have also caused a mutation in the Weed Kingdom known as Super Weeds that too have become immune to Round Up. Some GMO was also directed toward getting plants to produce or replicate human made pesticides so they wouldn't need to be applied, these are now being outlawed in Europe for killing the bees and preserving biodiversity. If the bees die, most of us will too.




Here is one

"This study examines the extent to which adopting herbicide-tolerant (HT) soybeans affects conservation tillage practices and herbicide use. The model is estimated using a state-level panel dataset extending across 12 major soybean-producing states from 1996 to 2006. The results of our analysis suggest that HT adoption induces farmers to adopt conservation tillage practices. Our results also show that HT adoption leads to a decrease in quality-adjusted herbicide use."

The gmo controversy seems to only exist within the realm of journalism and not so much in published science.... its almost the left's version of climate change denial.
Quoting 110. Skyepony:


Do you have a source other than Monsanto for that?

GMO mostly focused on making money on chemicals and not so much water efficacy. Much GMO was directed at crops being able to live through a spraying of Round-Up, which has greatly increased the use of Round Up across the world as these seeds are already being sold to any country that hasn't outlawed them. They have also caused a mutation in the Weed Kingdom known as Super Weeds that too have become immune to Round Up. Some GMO was also directed toward getting plants to produce or replicate human made pesticides so they wouldn't need to be applied, these are now being outlawed in Europe for killing the bees and preserving biodiversity. If the bees die, most of us will too.




Link

This is a good article from Penn State on the science of GMO's that looks at the issue from purely a science prospective. It clearly discusses that there are potential benefits, but also risks in regard to the use of stronger pesticides potentially being a health risk to humans, other plants, and other organisms, as well as the issue of weds becoming more resistant to the pesticides used.

Ultimately, I don't think banning GMO's is a wise idea, as the article even mentions, the EU itself conducted comprehensive research that found no harm in using them. However, having caution as to how they are used, when they are used, and why is wise. While GMO's are not found to be harmful, the issue of them being engineered specifically for handling stronger pesticides is cause for concern.

Though, GMO's can and are used in different ways as well, not just for the purpose of handling new and more powerful pesticides.

A note from the final paragraph is a great final word in regard to handling GMO's, and any science issue:

"When the Pew Research Center published its survey results about the beliefs of the public versus scientists, Alan Leschner, CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, told the Associated Press that “science is about facts; science is not about values.” He meant that science is a powerful tool that can lead us to understanding, but it can only take us so far. Only we, as thoughtful, ethical beings, can decide what science to do and what to do with the results of science. With GMOs, as with many technologies, science allows us to evaluate the risks and benefits."
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

I should fire the grill up this afternoon.Its very nice outside but unfortunately the steaks are frozen solid so we'll have to wait until Thursday.



"The secret is in the sauce"
116. 882MB
Storms are just starting to get going in Texas and Oklahoma.



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I remember well watching this scene in the theater.

It was powerful

And sad too.