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Spring Outlook for U.S. Drought and Flood: Dry to the Southwest, Wet to the Southeast

By: Bob Henson 4:48 PM GMT on March 18, 2016

An unexpectedly dry Southwest has put a twist on this spring’s prospects for drought evolution and flood risk, according to dual outlooks issued by NOAA on Thursday (see Figures 1 and 2). Mild weather has limited the winter snowpack over the Midwest, but saturated soils and near- to above-average streamflows will heighten the risk of moderate flooding this spring over the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the far Southeast and recently hard-hit east Texas and north Louisiana (Figure 1). Meanwhile, drought conditions are projected to improve near the intersection of California, Oregon, and Nevada, while holding steady over southern California and southwest Nevada and developing over most of Arizona and southwest New Mexico (Figure 2).


Figure 1. NOAA’s spring flood outlook for 2016, issued on Thursday, March 17. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Figure 2. NOAA’s outlook for drought risk through June, issued on Thursday, March 17, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.


The trickster El Niño of 2015-16
Normally during a strong El Niño, winters tend to be wetter than average from California across the southern Rockies to the Gulf Coast. One of the strongest El Niños on record has been in play this winter. Every El Niño has its quirks, but this one has gone against the grain in several ways, most notably in U.S. precipitation (Figures 3 and 4). Instead of slathering the southern tier of the U.S. with moisture (Figure 4), this El Niño has aimed its firehose in two distinct paths, as shown in Figure 3. One extends from central California north to Washington, and the other stretches from Texas and the Gulf Coast north and east into the Midwest and Southeast (plus south Florida). At times, these swaths have featured atmospheric rivers often referred to as the Pineapple Express (flowing from the central tropical Pacific to the West Coast) and the Maya Express (streaming from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern U.S.).


Figure 3. Observed precipitation as a percentage of normal for the 90 days ending at 8:00 am EST Thursday, March 17, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/AHPS.


Figure 4 (at right). Enhancements in the risk of wet extremes (green) and dry extremes (red) when El Niño is present in the January-to-March period. These estimates are based on more than 120 years of U.S. climate data and the Multivariate ENSO Index, which has been extended back to 1871. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.


A puzzling drought threatens to expand

Seasonal prediction is not for the faint of heart. Over much of the country, the rainfall patterns of the past three months (Figure 3) have been directly counter to what’s most likely during El Niño (Figure 4). The unexpectedly soggy Midwest and parched Southwest are especially striking. No major storms are in the immediate forecast for the Southwest, and Pacific storms become much less frequent from late March onward across southern California into Arizona and New Mexico.

At the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux put together a comparison of anomalies (departures from average) in the 500-mb wind (about four miles above sea level) for the Dec-Jan-Feb period (see Figure 5, below). “What is pretty clear to me is that the Pacific jet is shifted north of its normal position,” L’Heureux told me. “The typical wintertime Aleutian low is weaker than it is normally during an El Nino event. The El Niño wave train is there; it is just not *exactly* where it is located typically. But as we’ve been saying for the past year, no single year perfectly matches the ‘typical’ pattern. These sort of shifts are not unexpected to us, which is why our forecasts are probabilistic.  A strong El Nino doesn't negate the fact there is uncertainty and it is intrinsic to the climate system.”


Figure 5. A comparison of 500-mb height and wind anomalies for the December-January-February period in a typical El Niño (left) and during 2015-16 (right). Blue colors indicate lower-than-average heights (corresponding to upper-level troughiness); red colors indicate above-average heights. Image credit: Courtesy Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA/NWS/CPC.


It sometimes rains in Southern California
I asked Alex Tardy, warning and coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, to weigh in on how things look from where he sits. “We never told anyone there would be flooding or 100-year storms (though they told us that!),” said Tardy, “but with high confidence, we expected at least average precipitation, with the more likely scenario of 125% of average in our region. While most people expected flooding and torrential rains, we only had small doses of it in early January. In fact, we've had more impact in our region from squall lines and high wind (Jan. 5-6, Jan. 31, Mar. 7, and Mar. 11).”

Mountain snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is running near the seasonal average (Figure 6). By itself, that’s not enough to fully alleviate the impact of four-plus years of drought, but it should help keep the tap flowing at least modestly this year over southern California, which imports a good share of its water from the Sierra. Additional water comes into SoCal from the Colorado River basin, where the snowpack has been reasonably close to average, although powerhouse early storms over this region segued into a largely dry late winter. Meanwhile, the landscape of Southern California has received only a few moistening storms this winter. In its weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, the National Drought Mitigation Center kept 35% of California in exceptional long-term drought (the most dire category). This area now extends roughly south and west of a line from San Francisco to Reno to Los Angeles.


Figure 6. The amount of water held in snowpack (snow water equivalent) across the western U.S. on Wednesday, March 16, 2016, as a percentage of the median value for the date. Much of the mountain West has near- or above-normal snow water equivalent, but values below 25% are widespread across New Mexico, Arizona, and southern Utah. Image credit: USDA/NRCS.

“Most of our region [far southern California] is going to end up with from 40% to 70% of normal precipitation for the water year, unless we get a couple of April or May anomalies,” Tardy told me. “Given the significant green-up that we saw from the winter rains we did receive, there definitely is a lot more small fuel available for wildfires.” Although San Diego and Los Angeles haven’t gotten the El Niño onslaught they expected, they may get more sultriness than usual again this summer, according to Tardy, as sea-surface temperatures remain unusually warm west of Baja California for the third straight year. Hot temperatures may add to the discomfort: San Diego just notched the warmest February in its 142-year climate record, only the latest in a series of heat records set over the last two years.

What the year 1992 tells us about today
The weird effects of this El Niño on U.S. precipitation don’t resemble the other two “super” events in recent times (1982-83 and 1997-98). However, there is something of an analog, according to Michael Ventrice (The Weather Company). Ventrice has analyzed the location and strength of the semi-permanent equatorial trough, or standing wave, in the Pacific that corresponds to each strong El Niño of recent decades. In a prototypical El Niño, the most unusually warm water and most concentrated convection (showers and thunderstorms) are in the far eastern tropical Pacific, which tends to bring the subtropical jet stream directly into the California coast. This winter, the most anomalous warm water and convection has been in the central Pacific, close to the Date Line. The associated subtropical jet has occasionally punched into the Southwest but more often headed toward northern California, Oregon, and Washington. This was also the case in April 1992, toward the tail end of the strong El Niño event of 1991-92. Then, as now, the focus of El Niño’s oceanic warming was near the Date Line. “The enhanced precipitation signal in April 1992 looked to have set up further north than what you'd expect in El Nino base states,” Ventrice told me. “The Northwest and northern California saw the bulk of enhanced rainfall. Southern California was fairly dry.”

Ventrice added: “We probably won’t see a repeat of April 1992 for the western U.S. pattern in April, as other external forcing mechanisms [including a recent strong split in the stratospheric polar vortex] are expected to overpower the El Nino base state and drive the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere during April. Long-range sub-seasonal models are indicating highly anomalous warmth and dry weather across the entire western U.S. during the first two weeks of April.”

A parting swipe from winter across the Northeast
A nor’easter developing off the East Coast late this weekend could bring a strip of moderate to heavy snow over or near the major coastal cities from Washington, D.C., to Boston, although much uncertainty remains. Total snowfall could end up as high as 3-6” in D.C. and 10” or more in Boston. There’s been plenty of conflict in the model guidance on the timing, strength, and positioning of this storm, which will make a big difference in snowfall potential. Given the lack of intensely cold air, a nighttime snowfall would be more likely to produce accumulations in the D.C. area, mostly on grassy surfaces. Capital Weather Gang will be tracking the storm closely. Steve Gregory examined the prospects of significant snow, and the longer-range U.S. outlook, in a post on Thursday.


Figure 7. Infrared image of Cyclone Emeraude at peak strength (Category 4, with 145 mph winds), collected by the VIIRS instrument aboard the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite. Image credit: NOAA.

Emeraude hits Category 4 strength in South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Emeraude has been putting on quite a show this week across the remote waters of the South Indian Ocean. Emeraude quickly spun up to Category 4 strength, rocketing from peak sustained winds of 65 mph at 06Z Wednesday to 145 mph at 06Z Thursday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Emeraude underwent an eyewall replacement cycle later on Thursday, bringing down its intensity. Weak steering currents have allowed Emeraude to linger and pull up cooler water with reduced oceanic heat content, hastening its decline. At 06Z Friday (2:00 am EDT), Emeraude’s peak winds had dropped back to 100 mph. The cyclone could get a final shot at intensification late this weekend or early next week as it begins accelerating toward the southwest. Emeraude is not posing a threat to any land areas.

We’ll be back with our next post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson

El Niño Drought Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hopefully we see some rain tomorrow. We've gone 23 days without any precipitation here in Fort Myers.
Most of our rainfall came in January. February and March have been dry.

Yikes. Triple Threat.

(Fantala on the left, Emerude in the middle, and Gao on the right.)
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
 Thanks for all the Info Mr. Henson.... PAT, fix your link in #5
I rarely share FB stuff but this one I feel is worth the watch.

"He or She who stops to help another is favored by God and the Universe"


Weather with Trevor-Kanye Jackson
Rogue hail storm crossed central OK again this morning. Had one here a few nights ago. Also severe hail in NE TX. Biggest hail so far today was reported in SE LA.

Link to today's severe storm reports. This page will update through 7 a.m. cst Saturday

(Yes, Virginia, there is a Dibble.)
Yes, I am off topic but as I talk with an ole' timer today, 87... he remembered a March storm that was incredible where he said that big V plows were brought in from Canada to clear the roads. Yes indeed. March of 1958 and I found a site link,
http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2015/03/12/6
I hope this link works,
WOW, I am just 3 miles from Morgantown, PA and that was an incredible March storm with 50 inches in this area that I do not want repeated. He remembered it well as he walked a mile or so to help deliver a baby:) Best stories from those who lived it
For coincidence, March of 1958 was 58' years ago
Quoting 9. washingtonian115:




What happened to the Euro? It was the model that had been showing all the show for the mid Atlantic over the past week.
Quoting 11. Patrap:

For coincidence, March of 1958 was 58' years ago

Ah, cannot get the link to work.... any help with this would be appreciated. A small area with an abominable amount of snow. I always thought he was joking about this. Gotta love my friend and his stories.
Quoting 12. Sfloridacat5:



What happened to the Euro? It was the model that had been showing all the show for the mid Atlantic over the past week.
It shifted east leaving little to no snow in and around D.C.I must say the GFS has stuck to that solution since the beginning and it looks like it'll be right.
Very cool here on the island of Kauai, Hawaii at the moment, just 61F this morning (how do I cope!?). Last week we had a (unofficial) record 90F one day and a high of only 62F the next after a cold-front swept though. I was just thinking yesterday after my post that this year Nino is a lot like the one of '92. The fruit trees are flowering very vigorously after a dry, sunny winter out here in the Central Pacific :)
Thank You for that great summary Mr. Henson. I would have thought the opposite from the comment from Ms. L'Heureux as to the Pacific Jet moving further to the "north" as opposed to moving further to the south. The most recent split-jet pattern has primarily been moving so much moisture across Mexico (from the E-Pac) across the Gulf of Mexico/Gulf States, that the Southern part of California, with the exception of a heavy rain/flood event a few months back, has been left pretty dry by this particular El Nino pattern of recent weeks and flow continues to bypass them to the South:






Quoting 7. Patrap:

I rarely share FB stuff but this one I feel is worth the watch.

"He or She who stops to help another is favored by God and the Universe"


Weather with Trevor-Kanye Jackson

Absolutely. And because we are Gods workmanship, it pleases God when we do good and help others...Many pluses Pat.
What's cool about that drought prediction for Spring is yes, Virginia, there's some "drought development," but not a sign of "drought intensifies."

Most recent archived drought outlook I can find...


CPC's own depiction of their skill with seasonal drought forecasting... PERCENT OF PIXELS :)
Thanks to Barefootontherocks for noting the difference between intensifying and developing drought in the Southwest. I've fixed the reference in the first paragraph to be consistent with NOAA's own outlook ("drought development likely").
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You for that great summary Mr. Henson. I would have thought the opposite from the comment from Ms. L'Heureux as to the Pacific Jet moving further to the "north" as opposed to moving further to the south. The most recent split-jet pattern has primarily been moving so much moisture across Mexico (from the E-Pac) across the Gulf of Mexico/Gulf States, that the Southern part of California, with the exception of a heavy rain/flood event a few months back, has been left pretty dry by this particular El Nino pattern of recent weeks and flow continues to bypass them to the South:









Good point about the split! Figure 5 refers to the entire DJF period. My guess is that these intervals with an intensified subtropical jet into Mexico, per your graphic, are getting washed out of the 90-day average.
That is a major East West commerce route for millions that is closed.
"In its weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, the National Drought Mitigation Center kept 35% of California in exceptional long-term drought (the most dire category). "

Not bad, considering the level of exceptional drought was 58.41% in late Oct, 2014 - however you might define persistent. What's happened this winter in Southern California may not seem like much, but that's how an abating drought behaves. Gradual process.
Quoting 23. Patrap:

That is a major East West commerce route for millions that is closed.
Time for Waffle House.
Quoting 20. BobHenson:

Thanks to Barefootontherocks for noting the difference between intensifying and developing drought in the Southwest. I've fixed the reference in the first paragraph to be consistent with NOAA's own outlook ("drought development likely").
You're welcome. I'm not here to criticize, just interested from the point of view of having lived through a horrible drought. Drought is the worst weather Nature invented...
Worse than ice storms; worse than 40 below and 80-knot winds.
;)

{Later, poto-atoes!)
Thanks Mr. Henson; the cited DJF figures are from Dec-Feb, but the March pattern seems to have shifted to the South a bit.  Have a great weekend and thanks for your great work.
Defense Department Redefines Climate Change

New York Times

The Department of Defense added this definition of climate change to its dictionary late last month.
So what does “climate change” mean, exactly?

The question is not an existential one for the Department of Defense; it is a matter of careful and literal consideration.

The department recently decided that the standard Webster’s definition of “climate change” didn’t quite meet its needs. So it added its own version to its homegrown dictionary, the Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms.

Here’s how it now defines “climate change”:

Variations in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer that encompass increases and decreases in temperature, shifts in precipitation, and changing risk of certain types of severe weather events.

The dictionary, which is used in part to standardize military communication, is updated monthly, and the new entry on climate change was made public in late February.

Photo

The Department of Defense dictionary.
The military adds definitions when the Webster’s dictionary entry is considered insufficient, Richard R. Osial, a spokesman for the Joint Staff, explained in an email. And definitions can have policy implications.

This new explanation for climate change was added because “there are many definitions for climate change floating around right now,” and the department needs “to ensure that whenever the term is used in Department of Defense issuances, it has a specific definition,” Mr. Osial wrote.

Through this definition and other policy plans, the department has acknowledged that the country’s landscapes, climates and resources will likely undergo serious changes because of rising temperatures and other risks associated with climate change.

Specifically, the department anticipates “increased need for air, sea and land capabilities and capacity in the Arctic region,” and “damage from thawing permafrost and sea ice in Alaska and the Arctic region,” Mr. Osial wrote.

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Every week, we'll bring you stories that capture the wonders of the human body, nature and the cosmos.


Some additional risks they associate with climate change portend a grim future. Those risks include “disruption to and competition for reliable energy and fresh water supplies” and “changed disease vector distribution, increasing the complexity and cost of ongoing disease-management efforts,” among others, he added.

The definition was added as a result of two executive orders issued by President Barack Obama, which required several government agencies to prepare for climate change or achieve certain environmental benchmarks, including reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent over the next decade.

In 2014, an unofficial plan for adapting to climate change was developed by Chuck Hagel, the defense secretary at the time, and was later established as official policy for adaptation and resilience agencywide in 2015.

In the beginning of this year, the department also identified nearly 80 policy areas where it can make changes to consider the effects of climate change, updates which it expects to complete by 2025, Mr. Osial wrote.

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Continue reading the main story

The exit of the Fort Worth Zoo Museum of Living Art (MOLA) after a Hailstorm

Hailstorms Kill Animals At The Fort Worth Zoo
UPDATED | March 17, 2016 12:21 PM


FORT WORTH (CBSDFW.COM) The Fort Worth Zoo delayed their opening until noon on Thursday, after hailstorms killed several animals.

Zoo spokesperson Alexis Wilson said veterinarians were treating a few animals at the hospital, but that a several fowl were killed by falling hailstones. Five flamingos, a pelican and a couple of other small birds. So, it was a difficult morning to come in and discover those things, she said.But we also have a park that was covered in with ice.
Wilson said injuries to the surviving animals are not considered serious. We did have a few birds injured, they are over in our hospital. We do have an animal hospital on premises. Some of them were just a little stunned, probably had gotten hit by hailstones.



Damage at the zoo could be seen on the ground and from the air. The pathway leading to the front of the elephant exhibit was nearly completely covered with hailstones. Hail mounds up to almost a foot greeted workers at the exit from the Zoo Museum of Living Art (MOLA).

Numerous skylights throughout the Zoo were damaged, in addition to roofs of buildings and vehicles belonging to employees and the park.

Workers at the park had to check on and care for animals, as well as clear pathways littered with hail. Before allowing visitors inside, officials said they would open the Zoo as soon as they could, but that the safety of our guests and employees is our first concern.

Zoo visitors had no intention of letting the weather impact their plans, but the delayed opening meant hundreds of people lined up outside the park. The Fort Worth Zoo did meet their deadline and opened the gates right about noon. Every part of the Zoo, including the bird exhibit, was open to visitors.

(2016 CBS Local Media, a division of CBS Radio Inc. All Rights Reserved.
No one hasn't made a comment since 2:56 p.m this afternoon......
Just pacing ourselves and preparing for the weekend......................................... :)
Quoting 31. washingtonian115:

No one hasn't made a comment since 2:56 p.m this afternoon......
Could be everyone went for beer at the same time...it has happened...pfft
Quoting 23. Patrap:

That is a major East West commerce route for millions that is closed.


This past Tuesday I drove South from Arkansas to Houston on Hwy 59 (One of the suggested routes) I managed to beat the southbound traffic from I-20 South, but there points, such as in the town of Carthage that northbound traffic backed up for over a mile. Hwy 59 in East Texas is not an Interstate and has Traffic Lights and 4 way stops signs at some intersections. I don't think anyone thought to give some of these small East Texas towns a heads up as traffic increased by about 500%. I saw a lot of DPS, Texas Highway trucks and small town police scrambling...
Interesting note I found today in the Wiki article on jet streams/polar jet. So much of the current research is suggesting that arctic melt and related warming may be altering the polar jet patterns. I have always noted that we can only speculate as to what the polar jets might have been doing in past cooling and warming periods and that this is the first generation to be able to actually study changes in the polar jet. Turns out that the polar jets were only discovered by man after the Krakatoa eruption in 1883 and then nailed down as we started the flight age. Amazing; this means that the changes that we have been observing in recent decades is a first:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream

If I had the chance to change careers (at my age) and go to met school, I would probably try to become a jet stream expert and join the Rutgers team headed by Dr. Francis.

On that note, everyone have a safe weather weekend and see yall next week.
Quoting 35. uptxcoast:



This past Tuesday I drove South from Arkansas to Houston on Hwy 59 (One of the suggested routes) I managed to beat the southbound traffic from I-20 South, but there points, such as in the town of Carthage that northbound traffic backed up for over a mile. Hwy 59 in East Texas is not an Interstate and has Traffic Lights and 4 way stops signs at some intersections. I don't think anyone thought to give some of these small East Texas towns a heads up as traffic increased by about 500%. I saw a lot of DPS, Texas Highway trucks and small town police scrambling...



My neighbor was working in La when the storm hit and had to find an alternative to get home as well as I-10 was closed. Told me it took him an extra six hours to get home. I take that 59 route driving to Ohio sometimes, and you're right, many small towns with 35mph and traffic lights and stop signs.
Quoting 36. weathermanwannabe:

Interesting note I found today in the Wiki article on jet streams/polar jet. So much of the current research is suggesting that arctic melt and related warming may be altering the polar jet patterns. I have always noted that we can only speculate as to what the polar jets might have been doing in past cooling and warming periods and that this is the first generation to be able to actually study changes in the polar jet. Turns out that the polar jets were only discovered by man after the Krakatoa eruption in 1883 and then nailed down as we started the flight age. Amazing; this means that the changes that we have been observing in recent decades is a first:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream




I've often wondered how much the jet stream is impacted by the earths magnetic field. One day, when I get some time I wanted to read up on it
Quoting 15. EyewallPaul:

Very cool here on the island of Kauai, Hawaii at the moment, just 61F this morning (how do I cope!?). Last week we had a (unofficial) record 90F one day and a high of only 62F the next after a cold-front swept though. I was just thinking yesterday after my post that this year Nino is a lot like the one of '92. The fruit trees are flowering very vigorously after a dry, sunny winter out here in the Central Pacific :)
Was there for 10 days the end of Feb. Beautiful place.
I haven't posted these jokes in a while! They finally restocked the wooden sticks that they were on.

"Why did the tornado cross the road?"...to destroy the other barn
"What did the old bay bottle say to the hot sauce bottle?" What's shak'in hot stuff
"What did the computer say to the phone after their date?" Can you fax me your number?

Well that's all I got for today.Over and out.
Quoting 42. washingtonian115:

I haven't posted these jokes in a while! They finally restocked the wooden sticks that they were on.

"Why did the tornado cross the road?"...to destroy the other barn
"What did the old bay bottle say to the hot sauce bottle?" What's shak'in hot stuff
"What did the computer say to the phone after their date?" Can you fax me your number?

Well that's all I got for today.Over and out.
wow
Bit of difference between NOAA's spring outlook and NASA's GEOS-5 & perhaps my opinion as well.

Geos-5 is pretty much opposite to read from NOAA with blue being below average and red being above average precipitation. Fairly opposite with forecast as well, with the West coast wetter than average and the southeast drier. If I could add my option, totally agree about the above average rain on the west coast and Mississippi watershed, shade the upper midwest into Canada atleast average rainfall and Florida drier.
Quoting 18. Barefootontherocks:

What's cool about that drought prediction for Spring is yes, Virginia, there's some "drought development," but not a sign of "drought intensifies."

Most recent archived drought outlook I can find...


CPC's own depiction of their skill with seasonal drought forecasting... PERCENT OF PIXELS :)

While this week's California's percentage numbers were lower than last week's, keep in mind that last week's numbers were higher than those from the week before, so no one should be shooting off celebratory fireworks just yet. The fact of the matter is, nice as the recent rains have been, California is in the midst of a very long, very deep drought, and a series of Pacific storms isn't going to wipe out that rainfall deficit any more than a field goal will help out a football team that's down by seven touchdowns with under a minute to play. This winter's El Nino rains were less than hoped for, and La Nina is speeding back into dominance, so, absent a few more late and lucky deluges, the state's very likely to continue limping along where water is concerned. California needs many feet of rain; inches aren't going to do it.

Quoting 34. JRRP7:


Thanks for the update Mr Henson! As you mentioned, the hose has been pointed further north than my locale in San Diego County. I have received enough rain to green things up nicely with rain totaling 8.38" since Jan 1, 2016.

More importantly that hose has kept the snowfall at near/slightly above in the Sierra's from Central California and points north. The largest 2 water storage lakes and their respective watersheds have received above normal rainfall with Shasta Lake being only 23' from topping the dam. Shasta is actually releasing water letting out slightly less than is flowing into the lake.

Date / Time RES ELE STORAGE OUTFLOW INFLOW
(PDT) FEET AF CFS CFS
03/18/2016 02:00 1043.91 3896831 13055 22876
03/18/2016 03:00 1043.94 3897636 13231 23051
03/18/2016 04:00 1043.97 3898442 13371 23192
03/18/2016 05:00 1044.00 3899248 13447 23267
03/18/2016 06:00 1044.02 3899788 15347 21948
03/18/2016 07:00 1044.03 3900058 17929 21265
03/18/2016 08:00 1044.04 3900327 18963 22299
03/18/2016 09:00 1044.05 3900597 18585 21921
03/18/2016 10:00 1044.06 3900867 18217 21553
03/18/2016 11:00 1044.06 3900867 17705 17824
03/18/2016 12:00 1044.07 3901137 19513 22897
03/18/2016 13:00

Inflow 22,897 cfs............Releasing 19,513 cfs. Either they are releasing water due to a forecast storm Mon/Tues or are running water to generate electricity, which they usually do not do for etended periods.

Hopefully we can get a few more storms in both North and South before summer comes to California. The 2015-2016 El Nino has helped with our drought conditions but has not ended it.


Quoting 46. Gearsts:




If that happens maybe we in Soo Cal will get a very wet winter from a WEAK El Nino as opposed to the less rainfall than expected during our current STRONG El Nino of 2015-2016.
Quoting 33. hydrus:

Could be everyone went for beer at the same time...it has happened...pfft


Except for the minors, right ?
Moderate flooding in spring in time for a possibly above average hurricane season, neat-o.
Quoting 46. Gearsts:




CFS continues to make me shake my head. Showing the equivalent of a strong La Nina in the equatorial Atlantic, with a weak El Nino sticking around in the Pacific for fall/winter makes zero sense given the current state of the oceans.
Quoting 46. Gearsts:




Cold Gulf of Guinea and a cold ENSO. Pretty unfavorable for global ACE.
When you look at the past 30 days, the effects of El-Nino are not really noticeable for southern California, Florida, and the Southeast.
Thanks for the update! Amazing pic of cyclone Emeraude. And good evening, everyone.


90P (I guess?), now off the northeast coast of Australia, with a comeback?

And here many more of tropical cyclones:


Every Recorded Hurricane, Cyclone, and Typhoon Since 1850
Metrocosm, March 14, 2016 (above the map of the northern hemisphere with the north pole in the center; southern hemisphere and more: see link above).

Report about this map:
See Every Tropical Cyclone Worldwide Since 1850 on One Map
Weather.com, Published: Mar 18 2016 04:00 PM EDT
Studying trends over long periods of time can help weather forecasters better understand where extreme weather is likeliest to strike. Using historical information from NOAA, data visualization specialist Max Galka plotted 165 years of worldwide tropical cyclone data in one stunning map.
The image above, originally posted to Galka's website Metrocosm, makes it easier to see the paths most traveled by tropical systems over the years. Looking down at Earth, the map puts the North Pole right in the middle of the circle, with North America shaded in dark blue just right of center.
Galka, who spent years following hurricanes as an insurance risk analyst, admits he's always been fascinated by the tropics – specifically, the current stretch of more than 10 years without a major landfalling hurricane in the United States. So he dug deeper into the numbers and used his mapmaking background to get his hurricane fix in the middle of the offseason. ...

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 51. TimSoCal:

CFS continues to make me shake my head. Showing the equivalent of a strong La Nina in the equatorial Atlantic, with a weak El Nino sticking around inn the Pacific for fall/winter makes no sense given the current state of the oceans.

I don't know enough of this sort of stuff to be part of the discussion but it'll be very interesting to see what happens in the next months (including the reflections in this blog, lol): maybe entering climatological uncharted territory?

Edit:
COLUMN: How much clarity do we have on transition to La Nina? - Braun
Reuters Markets | Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:46pm IST
PHOTOS: Is climate change wiping out Iceland’s glaciers?

South-East Iceland’s Breiðamerkurjökull glacier – which runs into the country’s iconic Jökulsárlón glacier lagoon – has lost a massive 600 m in one year.

Tour guide Einar Rúnar Sigurðsson of Local Gui­de of Vatna­jök­ull recently took Morgunblaðið photographer Ragnar Axelsson (RAX) on a visit to the stunning ice caves of the region, to see just how much the ice has receded in recent times.


Link
2016

The Year the Humans awoke to the reality of their own making.

A ever faster Warming World is our shared Global predicament




Hell of a essay in these pictures. @ 56

Two things come to mind .
First, this is the result of all that heat flowing into the Arctic.
Second, the isostatic rebound is bound to pick-up, and that ain’t good.
Severe T-storm Warning for this cell over Houston Proper


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
536 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
 
* AT 535 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER EAST  
HOUSTON... OR NEAR JACINTO CITY... AND OVER DOWNTOWN HOUSTON  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...NORTHWESTERN BAYTOWN...DEER PARK...BELLAIRE...  
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...HUNTERS CREEK  
VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...ASTRODOME AREA...  
SPRING VALLEY...BARRETT...GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...NEARTOWN /  
MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON AND  
GREATER HEIGHTS.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO  FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
 
 
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
550 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT  
 
* AT 549 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES  
SOUTHEAST OF PANDALE...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANGTRY...MOVING  
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
COMSTOCK...JUNO...LOMA ALTA...SEMINOLE CANYON STATE PARK...SHUMLA...  
DEVILS RIVER STATE NATURAL AREA AND BAKERS CROSSING.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.  LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN  
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  
 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
 

Quoting 53. Sfloridacat5:

When you look at the past 30 days, the effects of El-Nino are not really noticeable for southern California, Florida, and the Southeast.



30 day and 90 day precip except for the heavy rain in the southern half of Florida earlier in the winter has been more reminiscent of La Nina than the strongest El Nino on record.

Defense Department Redefines Climate Change

Here’s how it now defines “climate change”:

Variations in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer that encompass increases and decreases in temperature, shifts in precipitation, and changing risk of certain types of severe weather events.


Link
Some mixed hot and dry news of world's weather. In Germany, after rainfall above average in the first months of the year (thankfully after the drought last year in big parts of the country), we're already in another stretch of very dry weather. Hope it won't become another droughty spring ...

Drought, salinization forecast to worsen in Vietnam
Tuoi Tre News, Updated : 03/18/2016 17:11 GMT + 7
An official from a national meteorological center has warned that drought and salinization currently devastating parts of Vietnam could become more severe in the near future.
A regular press meeting of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment was organized on Thursday afternoon to provide forecasts about how extreme climatic conditions that have been affecting several regions in the Southeast Asian country would get in the time to come. ....


Vietnam’s Southern Delta Faces Worst Drought in History
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS| Friday, March 18, 2016 |

Dry winter leaves Pakistan's farmers looking for work in town
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Fri, 18 Mar 2016 11:28 GMT

Malaysia to take emergency measures if temperatures exceed 40°C
Published: 4:15 AM, March 19, 2016
KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia will declare a heatwave emergency if temperatures in any area exceed 40°C for seven or more days, as part of an action plan to mitigate the effects from the current hot weather that has enveloped the country.
Malaysia’s Natural Resources and Environment Minister Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar warned yesterday that the current heatwave is only expected to end in May and said schools will be closed temporarily if the mercury goes above 37°C for more than 72 hours. ...


Drought Doubles South African Potato Prices to Record High
Tshepiso Mokhema, March 18, 2016 — 6:00 AM CET, Updated on March 18, 2016 — 12:55 PM CET
South African potato prices have more than doubled in 2016 from a year earlier as the worst drought in more than a century cuts yields in growing regions, an industry body said. ...

Worst Mediterranean drought in 900 years has human fingerprints all over it
A new study shows that the current Mediterranean drought is likely the worst in 900 years, probably due to human-caused intensification
The Guardian, John Abraham, Friday 18 March 2016 10.00 GMT
Excerpt: In the Levant region, the recent drought (1998–2012) exceeds what they have seen in the past 900 years. In fact, the recent drought is likely the driest period in the last 900 years and very likely the driest period in the last 500 years.



The Most Surreal Look at California’s Drought Is From the Air
Wired, March 15, 2016
Think of California, and you probably think of the beaches of Southern California, the vineyards of Napa Valley, or the verdant Yosemite Valley. Thomas Heinser’s surreal photographs offer a look at the other California, one parched by drought. His aerial photographs of charred hillsides, depleted reservoirs, and barren salt ponds are not at all what you’d expect of a place nicknamed the Golden State.

'A tipping point': Record number of Americans see global warming as threat
Oliver Milman, The Guardian, 18 Mar 2016 at 14:27 ET

Good night with this. After all this hot and dry news I think I'll concentrate on news of flooding in the next round-up ;-)
Quoting 59. Patrap:

Severe T-storm Warning for this cell over Houston Proper





Oh no, not Houston..

Oh, the humanity.
Navy Submarines Arrive in Arctic for Ice Exercise 2016

ICEX 2016 is a five-week exercise designed to assess the operational readiness of the submarine force while also continuing to advance scientific research in the arctic region. The Navy's Arctic Submarine Laboratory, based in San Diego, serves as the lead organization for coordinating, planning and executing the exercise involving two submarines, multiple nations and more than 200 participants.

"Our Arctic Submarine Laboratory, led by Larry Estrada, continues to be the world leader in Arctic undersea operations," said Rear Adm. Jeff Trussler, commander, Undersea Warfighting Development Center.

Submarines have conducted under-ice operations in the Arctic region for more than 50 years. USS Nautilus (SSN 571) made the first transit in 1958. USS Skate (SSN 578) was the first U.S. submarine to surface through arctic ice at the North Pole in March, 1959. USS Sargo (SSN 583), which the temporary ice camp is named after, was the first submarine to make a winter Bering Strait transit in 1960.


Link
I'm guessing that "the strongest El Niño on record" is based on the Niño 3.4 temp anomaly alone, not the difference of 3.4 with the rest of the Pacific. Since the main driver of atmospheric or oceanic activity is temperature difference, not absolute temperature, I would guess that based on difference this El Niño wasn't much to brag about. At least the Southern Californians aren't bragging -- and the Northerners don't have a lot to crow about either.
More proof that pine beetles don't watch Fox News -

Warmer Winter Brings Forest-Threatening Beetles North

This winter has been the warmest on record in much of New England. And while many people enjoyed the T-shirt weather, it made Claire E. Rutledge, a researcher with Connecticut’s Agricultural Experiment Station, more concerned about what next season may hold.

Beginning in April, she will head to Wharton Brook and other state lands, setting traps for the southern pine beetle and checking them weekly through midsummer.

The beetles, which can kill thousands of trees in epidemic attacks, had never been found beyond the pitch pine forests of the American South, because the winters were too cold.

But they have migrated to New Jersey, where they have destroyed more than 30,000 acres of forest since 2002. And the warmer winters have now beckoned them to New England.


Link
Quoting 71. RobertWC:

More proof that pine beetles don't watch Fox News -

Warmer Winter Brings Forest-Threatening Beetles North

This winter has been the warmest on record in much of New England. And while many people enjoyed the T-shirt weather, it made Claire E. Rutledge, a researcher with Connecticut’s Agricultural Experiment Station, more concerned about what next season may hold.

Beginning in April, she will head to Wharton Brook and other state lands, setting traps for the southern pine beetle and checking them weekly through midsummer.

The beetles, which can kill thousands of trees in epidemic attacks, had never been found beyond the pitch pine forests of the American South, because the winters were too cold.

But they have migrated to New Jersey, where they have destroyed more than 30,000 acres of forest since 2002. And the warmer winters have now beckoned them to New England.


Link
Yep...Only the beginning with situations such as this...My guess is it will get horribly worse, and in a short amount of time...Huge bummer indeed...I truly dig trees and plants...For instance Dandelion are considered a nuisance for people trying to keep there lawns looking good, turns out they are likely a cure for several types of cancer, or at the very least, keeps it at bay , and stops it from spreading...
Maybe the CFS is ever so slowly coming to it's senses. Looks like a somewhat cool enso.
It has been clear n cool the last couple mornings here in Acme, wa. 25-27, getting up to 55-58 and sunny. Celebrated my 40th yesterday in grand style up on the mtn with my big brother. No snow until 2000' but over 3000' there is a Lot of Snow!!!



Panorama point, record 109mph gust last week, surpised at how well those old mtn hemlocks held up. Very little damage up high, more lower down.



Oh yeah, did I mention that there was a lot of snow! Mt Baker, the white volcano, 10,781''.
Quoting 57. Patrap:

2016

The Year the Humans awoke to the reality of their own making.

A ever faster Warming World is our shared Global predicament




How long do we have?
Quoting 74. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Maybe the CFS is ever so slowly coming to it's senses. Looks like a somewhat cool enso.

Wow...aside from that cold spot in the North Atlantic and that mistake "Atlantic La Nina" that looks almost +AMO to me.
Quoting 74. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Maybe the CFS is ever so slowly coming to it's senses. Looks like a somewhat cool enso.
The CFS has the La nina in the wrong ocean so is still not doing great vs other models.
Quoting 51. TimSoCal:



CFS continues to make me shake my head. Showing the equivalent of a strong La Nina in the equatorial Atlantic, with a weak El Nino sticking around in the Pacific for fall/winter makes zero sense given the current state of the oceans.


Not much in weather makes sense anymore! May need to change the parameters for El Nino


Not much in weather makes sense anymore! May need to change the parameters for El Nino as the oceans continue to warm? If they continue to ( Im thinking they will ) May need to change the averages to every 10 years.......who knows?
Quoting 78. Gearsts:

The CFS has the La nina in the wrong ocean so is still not doing great vs other models.

I mean WTH is wrong with this model. Clearly the outlier. I'll talk to Dr. Klotzbach.
Quoting 77. HurricaneFan:


Wow...aside from that cold spot in the North Atlantic and that mistake "Atlantic La Nina" that looks almost +AMO to me.

Besides that Atlantic LA Nina, that's clearly a positive AMO. Clearly a positive Atlantic Tripole.
Quoting 72. hydrus:

Yep...Only the beginning with situations such as this...My guess is it will get horribly worse, and in a short amount of time...Huge bummer indeed...I truly dig trees and plants...For instance Dandelion are considered a nuisance for people trying to keep there lawns looking good, turns out they are likely a cure for several types of cancer, or at the very least, keeps it at bay , and stops it from spreading...

I've always thought that the need to have a manicured lawn was some kind of disease
Quoting 81. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Besides that Atlantic LA Nina, that's clearly a positive AMO. Clearly a positive Atlantic Tripole.
That looks more like a -AMO like this:


Now this is a +AMO:
Start the Pump's, NOW !

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 917 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 912 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 904 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 853 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 833 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 830 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 821 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 812 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016


GPM image of Emeraude
On March 16 GPM measured rainfall just northwest of Emeraude's eye falling at a rate of over 209 mm (8.2 inches) per hour. The powerful thunderstorms that were creating that heavy rain reached altitudes above 15.7 km (9.7 miles).
Credits: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce
Tropical Cyclone Emeraude formed on March 15, 2016 from a tropical low pressure area and intensified rapidly. By March 16 it was a tropical storm and a hurricane on March 17.

The GPM core observatory satellite flew above intensifying Emeraude on March 16, 2016 at 2121Z 5:21 p.m. EDT) after the tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds had increased to greater than 90 knots (103.5 mph). At that time GPM's Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instrument measured rainfall just northwest of Emeraude's eye falling at a rate of over 209 mm (8.2 inches) per hour. The powerful thunderstorms producing this extreme rainfall were measured by GPM's radar (DPR) reaching an altitude above 15.7 km (9.7 miles).
Kevin Jones / March 19, 2016

and the woodsman told me this afternoon they were picking ticks outta their hair last DECEMBER, here in New Hampshire.

This is why the moose population has crashed. Ticks don't watch Fox News either.
Quoting 76. Kenfa03:

How long do we have?


Lone Wati -

"Get ready little lady, hell is coming to breakfast"
Quoting 87. HurricaneHunterJoe:



GPM image of Emeraude
On March 16 GPM measured rainfall just northwest of Emeraude's eye falling at a rate of over 209 mm (8.2 inches) per hour. The powerful thunderstorms that were creating that heavy rain reached altitudes above 15.7 km (9.7 miles).
Credits: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce
Tropical Cyclone Emeraude formed on March 15, 2016 from a tropical low pressure area and intensified rapidly. By March 16 it was a tropical storm and a hurricane on March 17.

The GPM core observatory satellite flew above intensifying Emeraude on March 16, 2016 at 2121Z 5:21 p.m. EDT) after the tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds had increased to greater than 90 knots (103.5 mph). At that time GPM's Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instrument measured rainfall just northwest of Emeraude's eye falling at a rate of over 209 mm (8.2 inches) per hour. The powerful thunderstorms producing this extreme rainfall were measured by GPM's radar (DPR) reaching an altitude above 15.7 km (9.7 miles).



Mmmmm, Hot Tower's


"Possible" Rotation within a Severe Right Mover becoming more evident

Quoting 83. ACSeattle:


I've always thought that the need to have a manicured lawn was some kind of disease

Me too. It was pissing contest, like dogs, driven by advertising. "Your yard has a weed, this is a serious problem, buy our crap and you are a better man."

It's our desire to move into the upper class, only manor houses had this idea of playing on a perfect green carpet. A real Victorian hangover. The real sickness was when we took it to Tucson . Tucson has woken up from this dream. They are now cutting edge in the field.
Quoting 92. BaltimoreBrian:




Good catch, as always. The rainfall was so wide, and so deep I wondered what came next.

The "Old River Control Structure" is under attack once more. One more round of storms, and it fails. Then New Orleans is a sand bar.
Dozens feared dead in Russia air crash It is not clear what caused the crash but poor visibility and high winds are being considered as a factor.

Weather at time of crash, rain, 43F, wind WSW 31.3 mph gusting 49.2 mph.
Never seen a station in Georgia have the coldest reading in the CONUS before ;)
Nuuk, Greenland

30F . in the dark.
Yesterday in Greenland -

Narsarsuaq, Greenland

Friday, March 18, 2016

Max Temperature 56 °F average - 36 °F record - 53 °F (2006)

Link
It's warmer in Greenland than Texas tonight.
Nobel Peace Prize winners call for halt to Arctic drilling

In a letter, six female Nobel laureates urged Arctic countries to put a stop to drilling in the region.

“We urge you to seize this moment, to set a high standard for multilateral climate leadership, to protect the Arctic Ocean from the dangers of fossil fuel extraction, and to lead as the world builds the safe, clean, and renewable energy future we need,” the letter reads.


Link

78.1F here today(Jurupa Valley, CA)
Quoting 100. PedleyCA:


78.1F here today(Jurupa Valley, CA)



Supposed to be single digits here tomorrow Ped... I don't see any more rain in your forecast?
The Sierra Nevada hanging in there at near-average snowpack, in water equivalence.
California Snow Water Content
SAT MAR 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...

VALID 190534Z - 190700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING BOW WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS /56-KT WIND GUST AT ALICE TX AT 0502Z/ HAS ACCELERATED SINCE
0430Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST BY 06Z.
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS THIS BOW MOVES THROUGH
CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE BETWEEN NOW AND 0545Z.

LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS
LOCATED ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED FAST-MOVING
BOW ECHO /AT 46-50 KT TOWARD THE EAST/. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM STRUCTURE WITH A REAR-INFLOW JET AND RESIDUAL MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE MAIN THREAT AS THIS BOW MOVES TOWARD THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH INTO STARR COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO MEXICO...A SUPERCELL ON THE TX SIDE AND
MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES IN MEXICO SHOULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE.

..PETERS.. 03/19/2016
45. Neapolitan
9:16 PM GMT on March 18, 2016


Answered your similar sentiments in the blog about California drought a day or two ago. Just the same, I will post these two again because I think they depict are better visuals to show the drought (improvement) and depict the actaul situation better than the graphic you posted a day or two ago and repeated again Friday in this blog at the aforementioned comment which you directed to me.
;)




Of course California is not out of the woods yet, and it would be foolish to think so. My point, once again, the drought is improved - quite a lot.
(edit for clarity)
Quoting 99. RobertWC:

Nobel Peace Prize winners call for halt to Arctic drilling

In a letter, six female Nobel laureates urged Arctic countries to put a stop to drilling in the region.

“We urge you to seize this moment, to set a high standard for multilateral climate leadership, to protect the Arctic Ocean from the dangers of fossil fuel extraction, and to lead as the world builds the safe, clean, and renewable energy future we need,” the letter reads.





href="http://nobelwomensinitiative.org/wp-content /uploads/2016/03/Arctic-Council-letter_Mar2016_FIN AL.pdf?ref=18" target="_blank" onclick="s_objectID="http://nobelwomensinitia tive.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Arctic-Council -letter_Mar2016_FINAL.p_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true" rel="nofollow">Link



Quoting 99. RobertWC:

Nobel Peace Prize winners call for halt to Arctic drilling

In a letter, six female Nobel laureates urged Arctic countries to put a stop to drilling in the region.

“We urge you to seize this moment, to set a high standard for multilateral climate leadership, to protect the Arctic Ocean from the dangers of fossil fuel extraction, and to lead as the world builds the safe, clean, and renewable energy future we need,” the letter reads.


Link

correction:The use of energy is a mandate to the destiny we have sought particularly over the last 200 years... What is required is a contained closed loop regarding the synthesizes of the by-products of energy production...Can we be compelled to implement those few sources (closed loop) in time to prevent irreversible changes to our living infrastructure...

Where are the gross calculations of the present condition: (World oil production is about 4,000,000 barrels per hour. Coal accounts for over 50% of the worlds electrical needs or about 1,000,000 tons per hour (Wikipedia)) impacting the cybernetic stasis chemical and energy requirements of life... In one page or less...
Our destiny is to face a broad range of problems (like sea level rise) if we continue on the present course. We either tolerate the enormous costs of those problems (makes the stock market bailout look like peanuts when we start evacuating the coastlines--which is inevitable with the current path we are following), or we find better ways of doing things. It will require effort from more people than any Exxon primate can shake a "mandate to destiny" stick at.

Rex Tillerson (know who he is?) says ExxonMobil endorses creating a carbon tax (on multiple occasions since January 2009). Tillerson:
As I have mentioned on a number of occasions in this space, we believe the risks of climate change are real and those risks warrant constructive action by both policymakers and the business community.
The U.S. Military is taking the problem seriously (e.g. here). The mayors of Florida are taking the problem seriously (see "Florida Republicans Demand Climate Change Solutions").

The world is leaving the do-nothing attitude you represent behind. It must because the consequences are too great.
109. vis0

Quoting 51. TimSoCal:



CFS continues to make me shake my head. Showing the equivalent of a strong La Nina in the equatorial Atlantic, with a weak El Nino sticking around in the Pacific for fall/winter makes zero sense given the current state of the oceans.

(Any similarities to real "internet" personalities are coincidental, as much as i have my fingers crossed at the momment)

 

That (quoted/cmmnt#51) would be weird as in like NYC getting a ~tight strong LOW while at the same time SanFran to SanDee getting rain (as opposed to "heavy drizzle", to quote HHjoe)

So most including TimSoCal is saying what you see in the first 2 frames of the aniGIF is more like one expects, One side up other side down & vice versa.

i on the other hand have a 3 slices of healthier turkey BAYYY!coN!! and on the OTHER hand i'm saying what's in the rest of the aniGIF. 
In ~1 week the next 60 day "WxTrend" begins and it'll take ~10 days for observers & WxModels to pick-up that trend.
 

CREDIT (warning, images yanked from google search not from sites, no guarantee of actual sites representing images used, hence unlinked links posted)::
  • original see-saw kids (only see boy) from - http://nonnativemommy.blogspot.com/2013_05_01_arch ive.html
  • The generic see-saw kids from - https://www.wpclipart.com/signs_symbol/roadside_sy mbols/roadside_3/seesaw.png.html




 

yes that is washi115, ...can't ya tell Washi has snowballs, instead of ribbons in her hair.

And again the energy that best suites man as being the cleanest and can make the most money is harnessing the power of natural motion itself as in resonances/vibrations i.e. on the physical plane, wind. My final choices would be 60% "windstreams", 15%-20% hydro, 15%-20% solar with bits of other energy scattered throughout due to the inability to steer winds at 2 particular regions.
Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:

Never seen a station in Georgia have the coldest reading in the CONUS before ;)

18 Mar 6:15 am -27 -44 40 WNW 5 10.00 CLR 29.95 28.923 OK
18 Mar 5:55 am 44 37 77 CALM 10.00 CLR


Notice the 71f drop in twenty minutes.

Sounds legit. ;-)
beell - just for you and the other Texans. Lake Travis reached full pool
Quoting 105. Barefootontherocks:

45. Neapolitan
9:16 PM GMT on March 18, 2016


Answered your similar sentiments in the blog about California drought a day or two ago. Just the same, I will post these two again because I think they depict are better visuals to show the drought (improvement) and depict the actaul situation better than the graphic you posted a day or two ago and repeated again Friday in this blog at the aforementioned comment which you directed to me.
;)




Of course California is not out of the woods yet, and it would be foolish to think so. My point, once again, the drought is improved - quite a lot.
(edit for clarity)
If one only compares the current situation against the depth of the drought back in October of 2015, then, yes, there's been overall "improvement"*. But as I and others have stated, the California drought situation, even after last week's rains, is the most dire it's been in the many centuries leading up to today. And that situation is likely to continue becoming more dire as El Nino skulks away, taking its heavier precipitation with it.

Bottom line: this winter's mostly weak rains aside, California is in serious trouble. And the long, hot rainless summer's coming...

* - For the record, 32.21% of the state was classified as suffering from D4 conditions ("exceptional" drought, the worst kind) a few months *after* the October 2014 graphic you showed. But even after the current "improvement", this week's numbers have that percentage slightly higher at 34.74. In other words, the D4 situation has worsened since then, Not sure how great an "improvement" that really is.
Starting out spring break with a day of rain isn't so bad.
Easier to sleep in.
Quoting 112. LargoFl:




Bring on the rain. My fingers are crossed the rain holds together or starts to build out in the GOM and moves into my area. 24 days without any rain. I've been hand watering (daily) all the plants in the front of the house. All the plants were slowly dying even with the twice a week watering from the automatic sprinklers.
Good morning!

It's a beautiful 82, feeling like 83, with a blue sky to match these gorgeous Caribbean waters surrounding the island today.

All is well over here....well, except for the telephone warnings on earthquakes that seem to go on and on and on. This one located in Barbuda, however, did unnerve me a bit this morning:

"Magnitude : 6

Local Time (conversion only below land) : Unknown

GMT/UTC Time : 2016-03-19 11:26:30

Depth (Hypocenter) : 20 km"

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 93. RobertWC:


Me too. It was pissing contest, like dogs, driven by advertising. "Your yard has a weed, this is a serious problem, buy our crap and you are a better man."

It's our desire to move into the upper class, only manor houses had this idea of playing on a perfect green carpet. A real Victorian hangover. The real sickness was when we took it to Tucson . Tucson has w

oken up from this dream. They are now cutting edge in the field.


At least in the DC area you can maintain a decent green lawn with just cutting at 3" spring through fall, We get enough nitrogen from nitric acid in rain (formed from lightning and other causes) to maintain balance. It won't be deep lush soft green but it will be green and tougher and actually look better in summer. Heavy nitrogen feeding is bad for cool season grasses here in summer. And grass will outcompete most broadleaf weeds in sun if cut at 3" and if only fertilized in fall it will outcompete crabgrass also. That's the reality the lawn care industry wishes you didn't know. Without fall fertilization, crabgrass is more likely to get a hold in summer since spring growth that suppresses and shades it out depends on thick growth and strong root growth the previous fall.

For sound soil chemistry reasons it is illegal to fertilize in Maryland between Dec 1 and March 15.

Fescue and bluegrass are the dominant grasses here. Both go dormant in high heat or drought and look brown and dead but will survive and revive when rains return. THe combination of drought and heat is better for these grasses than rain and heat.
Quoting 51. TimSoCal:



CFS continues to make me shake my head. Showing the equivalent of a strong La Nina in the equatorial Atlantic, with a weak El Nino sticking around in the Pacific for fall/winter makes zero sense given the current state of the oceans.

Has anybody heard from StormtrackerScott? He seems to have an excellent handle on all things El Nino. I am very curious how he interprets this
Quoting 118. Llamaluvr:

Has anybody heard from StormtrackerScott? He seems to have an excellent handle on all things El Nino. I am very curious how he interprets this


You are joking right?
Quoting 83. ACSeattle:


I've always thought that the need to have a manicured lawn was some kind of disease
It is sometimes....A mental disorder called OCD....Its in The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, DSM for short...Book for practicing Psychologists...:)
Quoting 119. Bucsboltsfan:



You are joking right?
No she's not.
Quoting 119. Bucsboltsfan:



You are joking right?
Not really. Just like Levi is a great source of insight for the tropics and Astrometeor is the source for AGW, StormtrackerScott is the go to source for all things El Nino. Just like those in the medical field specialize in different areas, meteorologists specialize in different weather events.
Quoting 122. Llamaluvr:

Not really. Just like Levi is a great source of insight for the tropics and Astrometeor is the source for AGW, StormtrackerScott is the go to source for all things El Nino. Just like those in the medical field specialize in different areas, meteorologists specialize in different weather events.


I'd like to emphasize that we're just bloggers. You shouldn't come to any of us as a "go-to-source". This is especially true during hurricane season.
A pretty impressive looking squall approaching the FL coastline. I'm guessing the thinking is it will break up by the time it reaches the coast?
Nino 3.4 starting to drop again after slight gains in the past few days
Quoting 124. CybrTeddy:

A pretty impressive looking squall approaching the FL coastline. I'm guessing the thinking is it will break up by the time it reaches the coast?
Most likely....Squall lines approaching during the day loose some if not most of there dynamic support...I still wouldnt let my guard down due to it being so close, and some shear in the vicinity..

127. JRRP7
2016

1998

1983
ISS should be passing more or less over Emeraude in the next half hour or so:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload
Quoting 110. gr8lakebreeze:


18 Mar 6:15 am -27 -44 40 WNW 5 10.00 CLR 29.95 28.923 OK
18 Mar 5:55 am 44 37 77 CALM 10.00 CLR


Notice the 71f drop in twenty minutes.

Sounds legit. ;-)
Yep...We had a north wind at 140 mph couple days ago...It was gorgeous...:)
Quoting 127. JRRP7:

2016

1998

1983

Please excuse my ignorance but what is this showing?
131. JRRP7
Quoting 130. Tornado6042008X:

Please excuse my ignorance but what is this showing?


I think the yellow and red colors means sinking air and blue are rising air

Quoting 131. JRRP7:


I think the yellow and red collors means sinking air and blue are rising air

Thank you. Well in that case the different between this 2016 March 1-17 period and the 1983 and 1998 March 1-17 period are like night and day.

5-lobed cog, banging systems against the ridge along the West Coast. Looking for some modest action here in the SF Bay Area by late tonight thru Monday as two get thru.
Quoting 118. Llamaluvr:

Has anybody heard from StormtrackerScott? He seems to have an excellent handle on all things El Nino. I am very curious how he interprets this



You really need too stop with that or you may find your self on the ignore list and you are joking right? Give. me a break
Quoting 115. Sfloridacat5:



Bring on the rain. My fingers are crossed the rain holds together or starts to build out in the GOM and moves into my area. 24 days without any rain. I've been hand watering (daily) all the plants in the front of the house. All the plants were slowly dying even with the twice a week watering from the automatic sprinklers.
well by me the squall line came thru, just some light rain and no wind to speak off..guess it broke up when it came ashore..no real rainfall amounts, just steady light rain here...yeah My grass loved it..been really dry by me also...good luck down there..supposed to be a series of these rain events thru sunday
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
1156 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

FLZ155-160-255-260-191700-
INLAND MANATEE FL-INLAND SARASOTA FL-COASTAL MANATEE FL-
COASTAL SARASOTA FL-
1156 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA AND CENTRAL
MANATEE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1155 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAINT ARMANDS KEY...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SARASOTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SARASOTA...LAKEWOOD RANCH...RIDGE WOOD HEIGHTS...LAKE SARASOTA...
KENSINGTON PARK...SAINT ARMANDS KEY...SARASOTA BRADENTON AIRPORT...NORTH
SARASOTA...SOUTH GATE RIDGE...SOUTHGATE...SARASOTA SPRINGS...MYAKKA RIVER
STATE PARK...GULF GATE ESTATES...THE MEADOWS...SOUTH SARASOTA...
WHITFIELD...LAUREL...GATOR CREEK ESTATE...BEE RIDGE AND DESOTO LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
Quoting 131. JRRP7:


I think the yellow and red colors means sinking air and blue are rising air


El nino signal almost gone?
Quoting 122. Llamaluvr:

Not really. Just like Levi is a great source of insight for the tropics and Astrometeor is the source for AGW, StormtrackerScott is the go to source for all things El Nino. Just like those in the medical field specialize in different areas, meteorologists specialize in different weather events.


Not sure about the other two but Levi does have credentials [Link]
Not buying the CFS at all considering that it a big outlier this time round

The rest of the models show decent transition and growing La Niña

All due respect you must be nuts Llamaluvr if you think Scot is the go to guy when it comes to the ENSO

Scot got it somewhat right by saying the same thing every year for the past few years and just got somewhat lucky

If we left it to him we would have a multi year Armageddon El Niño from 3 years ago and continuing for the next 1 or 2 years

Hats off to him he was persistent until things were turning in his favour but it did last long and the El Niño was not as strong as he was predicting

Anyway on another but similar topic
There are a few blogger I know who do really good ENSO blogs
140. beell
Quoting 111. StAugustineFL:

beell - just for you and the other Texans. Lake Travis reached full pool


Thank you, Aug! There was a time when I thought we might never-ever see that again-in my lifetime-anyway.
Appreciate the update.

In celebration, it is time to plan a recreational boating trip on Lake Travis with a captain-for-hire who has taken a vow of abstinence from alcohol while ensuring mandatory use of approved personal flotation devices for all on-board while underway. All participants will cheerfully absolve the captain and the owner of the vessel from any and all liability during the voyage. All participating passengers pledge to maintain a reasonable amount of decorum and clothing.

aka: "The Booze Cruise".

(it's a lot more involved going for a ride around the lake nowadays...)

Thanks, again!

Lemme get up and greet ya'



College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours




Quoting 84. Gearsts:

That looks more like a -AMO like this:


Now this is a +AMO:



CFS is nuts and the outlier ATM
Maybe it might change once we exit out of the spring predictability barrier
Obvious tight velocity couplet and associated hook echo that is north of Belle Glade east of lake Okeechobee has been persistent, and I've seen storm go tornado warned with a lot less.

Am surprised it's not warned. Wouldn't be shocked at all to hear about a tornado report in that area later, if there's any people there that is.

Quoting 138. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not sure about the other two but Levi does have credentials [Link]


Yeah I can say first hand, I've been in classes with him, and I would ask how he did, as far as I know, he was the top scoring student, or among the top few when I was in atmospheric physics and atmospheric dynamics. He's brilliant and a great guy all around. Given how well he'd do, he must also study like crazy and manage to stay clam in exams. I don't know how he pulls off those grades, but hats off to him, cause my panic level would never allow me to scratch his academic performance, lol.

I had a high GPA including in general physics, calculus, and differential equations, till I started getting into the core meteorology courses. High level meteorology is just brutal, atmospheric physics and atmospheric dynamics, as well as synoptic meteorology are just hands down a lot harder than standard physics and calculus/differential equations courses.

I'm pretty sure now a general physics or math degree would be a bit easier, and would have kept higher grades, but it wouldn't be my passion, so it wouldn't have been worth it. While the meteorology material is tough, it's still enjoyable completely, especially dynamics and synoptic to me.
Quoting 143. Jedkins01:

Obvious tight velocity couplet and associated hook echo that is north of Belle Glade east of lake Okeechobee has been persistent, and I've seen storm go tornado warned with a lot less.

Am surprised it's not warned. Wouldn't be shocked at all to hear about a tornado report in that area later, if there's any people there that is.
Line looks better than I thought it would when hitting land. It had two things going for it. 1. It came in rather early in the day. 2. Dynamics from Nino still in the region.
nasty looking line of storms heading towards ft Meyers in awhile.................
The last 2 evenings here we have had some really Bad Boomers with Hail and High winds.

But those excessive rain amounts are the one thing that stood out both nights.

Also the vivid lightning was awesome.

So my veggie garden is done save for planting the Mater spouts in about a week, as the seeds for all the rest will go in tomorrow.

The 13 anniversary of my Fathers passing.

Always in our hearts and mind.



Quoting 145. hydrus:

Line looks better than I thought it would when hitting land. It had two things going for it. 1. It came in rather early in the day. 2. Dynamics from Nino still in the region.


It's a bit weaker than some of the most recent hi-res models showed, but overall not bad. The jet stream is helping to advect some cooler mid level lapse rates from the Mexican plateau, though this convective complex came in a bit on the fast side, so it has outrun the best buoyancy potential where the cooler air aloft is further west. That's pretty common though, if the FL peninsula was about 100 miles further west, it would get heavier spring and winter rain and more severe storms in the spring and winter, simply because the consistent evolution of upper support and instability.
................
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
A COUPLE OF LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING
CLUSTER NOW IN THE PROGRESS OF ADVANCING INTO/THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA GULF COAST. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LARGELY NOW
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...AHEAD OF THE INLAND
ADVANCING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN NOW APPEARS NORTH OF FORT
MYERS...INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MIAMI AND PALM BEACH. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
LEAD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...THIS BOUNDARY MAY NOT ADVANCE MUCH
FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS AND GULF COASTAL AREAS...BUT VIGOROUS NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SARASOTA. IT APPEARS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE THAT INSOLATION INLAND AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONSIDERABLE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50 KT
500 MB FLOW IS MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS A BIT MODEST /20-30
KT AT 850 MB/...BUT WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD
NEVERTHELESS CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE NOW APPEARS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO
SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR/MARSH.. 03/19/2016
Quoting 146. LargoFl:

nasty looking line of storms heading towards ft Meyers in awhile.................


Unfortunately it's moving so fast that accumulation won't be very high due to short duration, but better than nothing.
Quoting 150. Jedkins01:



Unfortunately it's moving so fast that accumulation won't be very high due to short duration, but better than nothing.
yeah we got .34 rainfall here when our line came thru earlier but NWS is saying storms will be ongoing thru the day and night..any rainfall is sure welcome, its been really dry here
I've been noticing an odd trend this spring and winter. Every single frontal system that has moved into Florida has followed the same pattern of the line of storms weakening from the Tampa Bay area north, and holding fine south of Tampa Bay, even though when the parent system is to the north, it should be the opposite, from Tampa Bay north.

Now if it was a case where the surface low was tracking just south of Tampa throughout this whole season, it would make sense, but the amount of times the northern half of these complexes collapses from Tampa to Orlando North into Jacksonville when the parent system lies to the north is frankly down right weird that it would happen consistently over an extended period.
Quoting 151. LargoFl:

yeah we got .34 rainfall here when our line came thru earlier but NWS is saying storms will be ongoing thru the day and night..any rainfall is sure welcome, its been really dry here


St. Petersburg just to the south had over 1 inch in a very short time, if the main squall line held together, you could have had over 1 inch. My parents live east of you and have had a bit better, 0.51.

The main front is still far to the north and west, as the front won't clear through here until later this evening. There is some more activity further out in the gulf associated with more energy, so you could pick up some more rain the evening into tomorrow morning.

In reality though, you guys really need a 2-3 inch widespread event to make up for the lack of rain the last month. February was below average, and March is well below average so far. March precip is usually the wettest of the dry season, with an average near 4 inches for Central Florida, so far it's been way less.
Quoting 125. HurricaneFan:

Nino 3.4 starting to drop again after slight gains in the past few days
Hourly Changes for the enso regions don't matter much.
Man, the official forecast completely failed on rainfall here, if it weren't for that we had a lot of rain Thursday and Thursday, night, we could have ended up dry.

After picking up over 1 inch on Thursday into overnight Friday AM, models had trended towards easily another 2 inches or more widespread from yesterday through today. The precip forecast was 70% yesterday and 80% today with heavy wording. And the WPC had a big swath of 2-4 inch bullseye for yesterday through today.
Yesterday we only had a 4 hour period of drizzle to light rain in the evening adding up to 0.09, and only 0.07 very early this AM. Nobody in the whole viewing area had remotely heavy rain the past 24 hours, or even moderate rain.

Rainfall forecasting is still prone to major errors at times, as models are often pretty far off, and remains a frustrating challenge sometimes.

On another note, I'm glad we had heavy rain Thursday into early Friday AM though, as we have also been well below average, and needed it well, though we could have used the additional 2-3 inches that were expected. My only hope is that today's unexpected sunny weather will be enough to get some convection going with enough moisture and cool temps aloft still before the front clears later tonight.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
Still time to change but ECMWF Week 3 fcst shows favorable cool weather (Eastern US only) pattern with -NAO/-AO/-EPO
Quoting 152. LargoFl:




I'm a bit surprised the SPC went with a slight risk and watch box, seems the marginal would have held. We'll see though.
Quoting 138. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not sure about the other two but Levi does have credentials [Link]
Just checked that out. He has come far fast..:)
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:

Man, the official forecast completely failed on rainfall here, if it weren't for that we had a lot of rain Thursday and Thursday, night, we could have ended up dry.

After picking up over 1 inch on Thursday into overnight Friday AM, models had trended towards easily another 2 inches or more widespread from yesterday through today. The precip forecast was 70% yesterday and 80% today with heavy wording. And the WPC had a big swath of 2-4 inch bullseye for yesterday through today.
Yesterday we only had a 4 hour period of drizzle to light rain in the evening adding up to 0.09, and only 0.07 very early this AM. Nobody in the whole viewing area had remotely heavy rain the past 24 hours, or even moderate rain.

Rainfall forecasting is still prone to major errors at times, as models are often pretty far off, and remains a frustrating challenge sometimes.

On another note, I'm glad we had heavy rain Thursday into early Friday AM though, as we have also been well below average, and needed it well, though we could have used the additional 2-3 inches that were expected. My only hope is that today's unexpected sunny weather will be enough to get some convection going with enough moisture and cool temps aloft still before the front clears later tonight.
Florida is tough on forecasters....Especially for folks that are not from the state..:)
Quoting 150. Jedkins01:



Unfortunately it's moving so fast that accumulation won't be very high due to short duration, but better than nothing.
Quoting 150. Jedkins01:



Unfortunately it's moving so fast that accumulation won't be very high due to short duration, but better than nothing.


Nor much of a bow echo, I'm not concerned.
I just have to chime in here with this article. Droughts and/or floods here in the US are posing a huge problem with farming that ultimately will affect our price of vegetables and meat.
As someone posted... let your yard have weeds. I totally agree. The lowly dandelion flowers make the best wine. The greens are delicious with a hot bacon dressing. I let my ragweed tower now instead of weed wacking... the benefits, my chickens have cover from the red tail hawks... PLURAL HERE, and also several quail observed here. I also let my grasses grow knee deep, I know.... ticks. Just a mow thru path for me. Less has become more in terms of wildlife that is present. Just a little part that I do and wish others would as well... and those laws that some municipalities want with a neatly/nicely mowed yard need to be banned. No chemicals here ever. I am adapting with climate and self preservation.... My neighbors hate my Ragweed, just too bad but I've got bees on my weeds and that is lovely:))))
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

FLZ072-172-191845-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
218 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

* AT 217 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A SHOWER CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER CHAMBERS ESTATES...OR NEAR
HOLLYWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...DAVIE...COOPER CITY AND HOLLYWOOD
DOWNTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ650-670-191930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0092.160319T1825Z-160319T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20
NM...
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 224 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS WAS LOCATED 12 NM EAST
OF JUNO BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 25 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...AND SMALL
HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS. BOATS COULD SUFFER SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE IN HIGH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT COULD CAPSIZE IN
SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY OPEN WATERS.

LAT...LON 2678 7990 2697 7989 2698 7927 2675 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 268DEG 23KT 2691 7981

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...50KTS

$$

KSCHARF
A location to really worry about sea level rise. Male is the capital city of Maldives. It is only 1.7 kilometers long and just one kilometer wide.
In addition the city has a population of over 100,000 people living at about 2-3 meters or less above sea level.

Even worse is they have a near by island that is for all the trash and plastic from the city.

Quoting 155. Jedkins01:



St. Petersburg just to the south had over 1 inch in a very short time, if the main squall line held together, you could have had over 1 inch. My parents live east of you and have had a bit better, 0.51.

The main front is still far to the north and west, as the front won't clear through here until later this evening. There is some more activity further out in the gulf associated with more energy, so you could pick up some more rain the evening into tomorrow morning.

In reality though, you guys really need a 2-3 inch widespread event to make up for the lack of rain the last month. February was below average, and March is well below average so far. March precip is usually the wettest of the dry season, with an average near 4 inches for Central Florida, so far it's been way less.


Got about .5" in Palm Harbor.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 50
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA...AND ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT
APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS A TORNADO.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
We just picked up a quick .40" of rain here in Fort Myers with the line as it passed through. It rained for about 10 minutes really hard and that's about it.
But we'll take it. It was our first measurable precipitation in 25 days.
Storm Rainfall Totals


Quoting 172. Sfloridacat5:

We just picked up a quick .40" of rain here in Fort Myers with the line as it passed through. It rained for about 10 minutes really hard and that's about it.
But we'll take it. It was our first measurable precipitation in 25 days.


There's a decent chance you may see more rainfall later tonight into the overnight, there is still some weak short wave energy further west in the gulf.
Quoting 167. Sfloridacat5:

A location to really worry about sea level rise. Male is the capital city of Maldives. It is only 1.7 kilometers long and just one kilometer wide.
In addition the city has a population of over 100,000 people living at about 2-3 meters or less above sea level.

Even worse is they have a near by island that is for all the trash and plastic from the city.




Gross, very little green...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
420 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

FLZ063-066-067-070-192115-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-GLADES FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
HENDRY FL-
420 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR WESTERN PALM BEACH...CENTRAL
COLLIER...SOUTH CENTRAL GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

* AT 419 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF MOORE HAVEN TO 8 MILES
EAST OF WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLE GLADE...CLEWISTON...PAHOKEE...SOUTH BAY...MOORE HAVEN...IMMOKALEE...
CANAL POINT...LAKE HARBOR...MONTURA...AVE MARIA...GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...
BELLE GLADE CAMP...ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE REFUGE...HENDRY CORRECTIONAL...
DEVILS GARDEN...FREMD VILLAGE-PADGETT ISLAND...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE
RESERVATION...HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE REFUGE...OKEELANTA AND HARLEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
Quoting 177. Jedkins01:



Gross, very little green...


Yeah, crazy how they've packed so many people on that tiny island. Also, many may have seen the pictures from "Plastic Island" or "Trash Island" where they burn the trash from the city. Link
Here's one of the images from "Trash Island."
Trof digging in...

Got a much needed inch of rain in Melbourne.

Louisiana, washed away..
Earth Hour 2016



Saving?

Every day 24/7/365 we are adding more CO2 into our Biosphere.

2016 will be warmer than the warmest year recorded, last year, and so on and so forth into the futcha' we all go.

Slow roasting as the Human toll on the Planet is one that will ultimately doom millions to suffer as we go.




Well....The forecast busted big time...We were suppose to have a high of 61 with clouds...the reality? We're sitting at 38 degrees with moderate rain.It is down right miserable outside today with this cold rain but at least it keeps the pollen down though.
Very Interesting.
Winter Storm Regis a Weekend Nor'easter as Spring Arrives; Snow For New England, Appalachians (FORECAST).
Link
189. JRRP7
Quoting 187. Gearsts:



CFS tratando de adaptarse a la realidad
Quoting 185. washingtonian115:

Well....The forecast busted big time...We were suppose to have a high of 61 with clouds...the reality? We're sitting at 38 degrees with moderate rain.It is down right miserable outside today with this cold rain but at least it keeps the pollen down though.


Forecast for Saturday has been in the 40s or upper 30s with mix of rain and snow for several days and it's verifying. Past few days have busted warm but this one was on the mark I think.
Quoting 190. georgevandenberghe:



Forecast for Saturday has been in the 40s or upper 30s with mix of rain and snow for several days and it's verifying. Past few days have busted warm but this one was on the mark I think.


Wunderground calendar forecast for Reagan National in D.C. had a high of 57 and a low of 37 for today. Maybe she was looking at a local forecast for her location from Wunderground.
The CFS might be slowly beginning to figure things out, but I think it's still pretty lost on just about everything going into the summer and next fall. I've gone ahead and posted my 2016 Atlantic hurricane forecast. It's still very early to be doing such, but for time reasons I had to put most of it together this week, so I figured I'd just do the whole thing. I might amend it a little in May. My numbers (including Alex) are 11/6/2. Much more detail on the full entry though.

Link
Quoting 190. georgevandenberghe:



Forecast for Saturday has been in the 40s or upper 30s with mix of rain and snow for several days and it's verifying. Past few days have busted warm but this one was on the mark I think.


Newest models runs are bringing the coastal closer to the coast so we could see some accumulations (1-3in.) tomorrow and into Monday mainly on grassy and wooden surface.
Quoting 191. Sfloridacat5:



Wunderground calendar forecast for Reagan National in D.C. had a high of 57 and a low of 37 for today. Maybe she was looking at a local forecast for her location from Wunderground.

Yes.It was for highs in the upper 50's to low 60's.I also saw this on the CWG site.
Interesting difference in sea height anomalies between 1998 and now. Now there definitely is much more ocean heat content north and south of el nino regions - especially to the north.
Anyone know where the snow off switch is?

It been snowing pretty good since last night and it's cold enough for it to stick. Already dug the vehicles and shoveled the driveway (with the kids) once and it's time to do it again.

Radar map shows it's gonna keep on snowing for a bit.
Another big WWB?
200. MahFL
Quoting 198. Dakster:

Anyone know where the snow off switch is?

It been snowing pretty good since last night and it's cold enough for it to stick. Already dug the vehicles and shoveled the driveway (with the kids) once and it's time to do it again.

Radar map shows it's gonna keep on snowing for a bit.



Where are you located Dakster ?
DISCUSSION...
FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING. WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE
BEGUN TO DECREASE IN SPEED SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT
4PM CDT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN THE SHORT TERM
THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN
WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO NEAR 40 AND UPPER 30S IN SPOTS NORTH
OF THE METRO AREA..THE COLDEST SE TX HAS BEEN SINCE FEB 25-27 OF
THIS YEAR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SO
TEMPERATURES WHERE SHADED A BIT TO THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK IN.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED WITH
A FAIRLY DEEP LOOKING SFC LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WED ACROSS THE INLAND PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS BRING COLD FRONT INTO THE KCLL AREA
THURSDAY MORNING AND SWEEP IT OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SIMILAR SFC COLD FRONT TIMING THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS
STRONGER/DEEPER WITH UPPER TROUGH THAN ECMWF/GFSENS MEAN ON
THURSDAY. RESULT IS MORE PCPN FROM GFS AND A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
STRONGER STORMS..PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF I10/I45..SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH BLENDED POPS/WX. 12HR POPS IN
EXTENDED GFS/ECM MOS LOOK LIKE GOOD NUMBERS..24HR POP FROM
GFS/GFSENS MOS LOOK A TAD TOO HIGH FOR THURSDAY AT THIS POINT. 04

If I read this right, those who live by Lake Houston REALLY have something to worry about! (I don't, thank God).
Quoting 200. MahFL:



Where are you located Dakster ?


South Florida... Kidding... Old hideout.

Currently in Anchorage, AK.
Quoting 200. MahFL:



Where are you located Dakster ?
Hello Mah....He is in Alaska, but i do not know what part.
Hows your temp Duckster.....
Quoting 205. hydrus:





Ahhh, looks like the really high octane rain will fall to the NE of the Houston metro for once. I like that graphic. Thank you, hydrus.
Or SHOULD I thank you?
Antonio Vivaldi's La Primavera (Spring) from Le quattro stagioni (The four seasons), published 1725. Direct link here.
Quoting 203. hydrus:

Hello Mah....He is in Alaska, but i do not know what part.
the snowy part right now anyway
Quoting 204. PedleyCA:

Hows your temp Dakster.....



You had a typo... Fixed that for you...

Good 21F and still snowing. Went out to get dinner... Darn near got stuck in the car, came back and got the 4WD Diesel Truck.... That only had some minor stopping issues.... Nothing like learning how to drive in 1 foot plus snow on hills. And then on to icy intersections. This Florida boy has some things to learn.
Alaska, or Earths newest temperate Zone.

: P


Eagle River, AK
Chatanika Loop
Elev 590 ft 61.32 °N, 149.54 °W
Overcast
18.1 °F
Today
High 26 | Low 19 °F
Pressure     29.49 in
Visibility     0.8 miles
Clouds     Overcast 600 ft
Windchill     18 °F
Dew Point     15 °F
Humidity     89%
Rainfall     0.00 in
Snow Depth     Not available.
Snow depth isn't available, because it's deeper than the meter probably is...

Patrap it has been really warm for here, up here...

There is a moisture river just fueling the snow fall.
My only stop in AK was on the way back from Okinawa in September 83' to refuel in Anchorage.

It was breaking dawn on the 747 MAC flight descent into there. Was awesome Sunrise for this deep dixie boy.

It was an awesome sight the first time we came up here for me too...

Why we ended up coming up here...

Looks like on the radar in about an hour or so the snow should stop. Then I can dig my cars out for the 3rd time today...

I have neighbor that is very picky about his driveway. I've heard him a half dozen times go out and run the snow blower. However, he is very nice as he does parts of the street and the mailboxes. Then his across the street neighbor was out and he went and cleared his driveway for him... So I give him big time kudos for that.
Spring has arrived in the Northern Hemisphere

Happy Equinox !
Let's try this: (It loads a new image every minute)

  Goodnight Gentlemen, time for sleep, have a good one....
Quoting 208. BaltimoreBrian:

Antonio Vivaldi's La Primavera (Spring) from Le quattro stagioni (The four seasons), published 1725.
(snip)
Great choice BB, by Perlman et al.

Quoting 216. Patrap:

Spring has arrived in the Northern Hemisphere

Happy Equinox !
Quoting 216. Patrap:

Spring has arrived in the Northern Hemisphere

Happy Equinox !


Spring is not in tell the 21st today is the 19
Quoting 220. Tazmanian:



Spring is not in tell the 21st today is the 19

It's true that astronomically spring starts on the vernal equinox which in 2016 occurs on March 20th at 4:30 UT (that's 12:30 AM March 20th on the east coast of the US taking into account daylight savings time). So I guess it occurred a couple of hours ago as of this writing.

However meteorologically spring is March, April and May and after all isn't this blog mostly about meteorology?
“In the more than 30 years I’ve been a meteorologist, I’ve always enjoyed sitting down each day and taking a look at the latest computer model forecasts of the weather for the upcoming ten days,’’ said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for the site Weather Underground. “That pleasure began becoming tinged with anxiety beginning in 2010, when we seemingly crossed a threshold into a new more extreme climate regime. The relatively stable climate of the 20th Century that I grew up with is no more.’’

Link
Quoting 208. BaltimoreBrian:

Antonio Vivaldi's La Primavera (Spring) from Le quattro stagioni (The four seasons), published 1725.


Ok, so how you embed a youtube video on this page, cause apparently I broke that functionality by trying to copy what you did, Brian. Sorry about that.
Quoting 214. Patrap:

My only stop in AK was on the way back from Okinawa in September 83' to refuel in Anchorage.

It was breaking dawn on the 747 MAC flight descent into there. Was awesome Sunrise for this deep dixie boy.


Greetings Pat..I hope to go to Okinawa or Japan someday..Damn the radiation. ! :)
Weird weather here today..



..TN valley...


Steep lapse rates are expected to develop during the day across the
Tennessee Valley as strong sunshine enhances buoyancy beneath quite cold
middle-level trough where 500mb temperatures are forecast near -30c.
Though surface temperatures may struggle to rise out of the 40s across
this region very small hail could be noted due to cold profiles.


Could snow tonight too...
Quoting 220. Tazmanian:



Spring is not in tell the 21st today is the 19


Actually it can span from 19-22 March just depending on region it can even be 23 March depending on year
March Equinox in George Town, Cayman Islands was on
Saturday, 19 March 2016, 23:30 EST

March Equinox in London, England, United Kingdom was on
Sunday, 20 March 2016, 04:30 GMT

March Equinox in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was on
Sunday, 20 March 2016, 12:30 MYT

March Equinox in Houston, Texas, USA was on
Saturday, 19 March 2016, 23:30 CDT

March Equinox in Mexico City, Federal District, Mexico was on
Saturday, 19 March 2016, 22:30 CST

March Equinox in Washington DC, District of Columbia, USA was on
Sunday, 20 March 2016, 00:30 EDT

March Equinox in Stockholm, Sweden was on
Sunday, 20 March 2016, 05:30 CET
Good morning and afternoon, all. We, West Central Louisiana, still have homes underwater and churches and groups are still working, cooking dinners for and helping out with cleaning up. One small town, Evans, was especially hard hit with the flooding. I10 remains closed and it's basically an eight hour detour to get around as you have to drive all the way to Shreveport to cross over to Texas. About six miles down the road from me the road is washed away. As I live very close to the Texas border and that's the road I'd take, I'm glad I have no current plans to go to Texas anytime soon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, spicy breakfast burritos, sunny side up or easy over eggs with thick slices of either ham or bacon or both, cheesy grits with shrimp, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), broccoli & cheddar omelet, brown sugar oatmeal, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!

Quoting 230. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. We, West Central Louisiana, still have homes underwater and churches and groups are still working, cooking dinners for and helping out with cleaning up. One small town, Evans, was especially hard hit with the flooding. I10 remains closed and it's basically an eight hour detour to get around as you have to drive all the way to Shreveport to cross over to Texas. About six miles down the road from me the road is washed away. As I live very close to the Texas border and that's the road I'd take, I'm glad I have no current plans to go to Texas anytime soon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, spicy breakfast burritos, sunny side up or easy over eggs with thick slices of either ham or bacon or both, cheesy grits with shrimp, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), broccoli & cheddar omelet, brown sugar oatmeal, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!




I tried to plus your comment from my mobile and I may have flagged you by accident. Sorry!
Quoting 230. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. We, West Central Louisiana, still have homes underwater and churches and groups are still working, cooking dinners for and helping out with cleaning up. One small town, Evans, was especially hard hit with the flooding. I10 remains closed and it's basically an eight hour detour to get around as you have to drive all the way to Shreveport to cross over to Texas. About six miles down the road from me the road is washed away. As I live very close to the Texas border and that's the road I'd take, I'm glad I have no current plans to go to Texas anytime soon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, spicy breakfast burritos, sunny side up or easy over eggs with thick slices of either ham or bacon or both, cheesy grits with shrimp, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), broccoli & cheddar omelet, brown sugar oatmeal, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Broccoli and cheddar omelet "2"...and that oatmeal w/ brown sugar..."3"...please...
Good morning spring, and in due time you brought us rain. Man this Bob Henson guy was right on the money with the spring outlook for our region!
Quoting 232. Becca36:



I tried to plus your comment from my mobile and I may have flagged you by accident. Sorry!


Don't worry about it, accidents happen. Have a wonderful day!
The big part of the cold mode is still far west and hasn't move east at all.
Quoting 222. RobertWC:

In the more than 30 years I've been a meteorologist, I've always enjoyed sitting down each day and taking a look at the latest computer model forecasts of the weather for the upcoming ten days, said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for the site Weather Underground. "That pleasure began becoming tinged with anxiety beginning in 2010, when we seemingly crossed a threshold into a new more extreme climate regime. The relatively stable climate of the 20th Century that I grew up with is no more."

Link


Being 9 months older than Dr. Masters, but the same year of birth, I have to agree that what we grew up with,is long gone climate wise.

Imagine all the dollars we could have stacked with solar energy instead of Coal, and think of the money saved if we had the Electric vehicle then to today as well.

Most importantly, think of all the CO2 that would still be locked away,sequestered safely in the ground where nature buried it.

We have been hoodwinked all of our lives by the simple equation of Short term profits for some, and the Warming of the Globe by the same.

Think about dat this first day o spring 2016.

2016, the Year the Climate Changed forever.



My Father, a WW2 Battle of Okinawa Veteran passed this day 13 years ago.

Before He died of asbestosis Lung Cancer from all the years repairing catcrackers in Oil refineries .

He confessed to me that all this oil and Petro derived goods will be the end of us in the long run.

He truly was a voice from the past and future, sharing His insight on it shortly before He passed away.

Semper Fidelis Father










George Bush Sr.'s Cabinet Was Worried About Climate Change — 27 Years Ago

“Global climate change is the most far reaching environmental issue of our time,” warned Acting Assistant Secretary of State Richard J. Smith in a 1989 memo.


Link
Quoting 237. Gearsts:

The big part of the cold mode is still far west and hasn't move east at all.



It has moved East although it's only just a bit however the overall cold pool has shifted far east and won't take much for the coldest of the cold pool to shift E as well

Overall cold pool is taking over and warm pool is going bye bye
Quoting 227. Mediarologist:




That vary March is telling you no rain for you
Quoting 228. wunderkidcayman:



Actually it can span from 19-22 March just depending on region it can even be 23 March depending on year



Hmmm I did not no that thanks
Here's What the Southern Floods Looked Like From Space

NASA also released a map that showed estimated rainfall totals from these storms. In the image below, areas shaded in darker shades of blue received up to a half-foot of rain, while places with the brightest shade of white recorded upwards of two feet of rain. The map effectively communicates the widespread nature of the biggest rainfall totals as the system stalled out over the South and dumped immense amounts of precipitation.

Link
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

MAZ013-015>021-RIZ001>007-202100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.160320T2300Z-160321T1500Z/
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE.. .
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WES TERLY...
NEWPORT
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND.
THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD THE CAPE COD CANAL.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 6
AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PROBABLY PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE COMING
TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS MAKING FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BE FALLING HEAVILY
DURING THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. THE RESULT MAY BE
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.
NAO super positive.
248. vis0

Quoting 154. Jedkins01:

I've been noticing an odd trend this spring and winter. Every single frontal system that has moved into Florida has followed the same pattern of the line of storms weakening from the Tampa Bay area north, and holding fine south of Tampa Bay, even though when the parent system is to the north, it should be the opposite, from Tampa Bay north.

Now if it was a case where the surface low was tracking just south of Tampa throughout this whole season, it would make sense, but the amount of times the northern half of these complexes collapses from Tampa to Orlando North into Jacksonville when the parent system lies to the north is frankly down right weird that it would happen consistently over an extended period.
LOOK wha ya made me do, ...my zilly blog pg. 8 cmmnt#.359  (my not be the correct answer as to physics, but its my response)




To all the WU surfers. My son and his fiance are at the above picture this weekend.
Margret River, Australia
Man, the beauty of Australia ...so much pristine water.
Ice breaker: US nuclear submarine bursts through frozen Arctic ice (VIDEO)

Link
Gearsts what does the NAO being super positive mean?
Quoting 251. FirstCoastMan:

Gearsts what does the NAO being super positive mean?
Strong trade winds and MDR cooling.
Mongolia herders face disaster: Red Cross

Goats, sheep and cows die en masse, unable to graze sufficiently in the warmer months to build up the reserves necessary to withstand later temperatures that regularly drop to -50 degrees Celsius.

More than 350,000 animals have already died, but more than a million deaths are expected, according to the latest available data from the UN mission in the country, IFRC said.

Its East Asia communications delegate Hler Gudjonsson told AFP: "We're only about one-third through the disaster."


Link
AUSTRALIA’S record-breaking autumn heat is just a taste of what’s to come if we continue to lag behind global powers who are moving away from fossil fuels to combat climate change.

Environmental experts have warned Australia will continue to experience record-breaking heat and extreme weather in the wake of a damning report that reveals a notable climb in average temperatures across the country at the start of March. Maximum temperatures in the first four days of this month were four degrees above average.

Former Australian of the Year, the Climate Council’s Tim Flannery, said conditions over the past few months had been unprecedented, and inaction from Australia following a global agreement in Paris to do more was “quite disgraceful”.

“We’ve had three months in Australia where nothing has happened, but we got the announcement that emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have grown,” he said.


Link
Quoting 246. Gearsts:

NAO super positive.


Could this NAO turn negative by hurricane season?
Quoting 240. hydrus:




Ironic who said that
258. JRRP7
.
259. JRRP7
Quoting 255. HurricaneFan:


Could this NAO turn negative by hurricane season?

Back to the usual 45 grey with a little mist routine her in Acme, wa. March precip has been at a tortise pace, just over 4". Nothing compared to your git r done style down in the SE!

Just for fun I computed the 10 year average monthly snowfall at Mt Baker ski area:

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
11" 113" 124" 124" 95" 140" 64" year total 671"

2015-2016 comparison

Oct Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
0.0" 94" 186" 103" 109" 79" as of 3/16 ytd total 571"

Link



Dec 29th 2015
Link

Fixed I hope



Snow hawk 3/17/16
Quoting 260. plantmoretrees:

Back to the usual 45 grey with a little mist routine her in Acme, wa. March precip has been at a tortise pace, just over 4". Nothing compared to your git r done style down in the SE!

Just for fun I computed the 10 year average monthly snowfall at Mt Baker ski area:

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
11" 113" 124" 124" 95" 140" 64" year total 671"

2015-2016 comparison

Oct Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
0.0" 94" 186" 103" 103" 79" as of 3/16 ytd total 571"

Link



Dec 29th 2015


To your west the YTD (Jan, Feb, March) precipitation estimates for the Olympic Peninsula are ridiculous.

Quoting 262. Sfloridacat5:



To your west the YTD (Jan, Feb, March) precipitation estimates for the Olympic Peninsula are ridiculous.




Indeed, I'm glad the Olympic mtns block so much of the rain aimed at me. Wondering if things are going to switch over to unusually warm and dry again later this spring like they did last year? Oh wait I guess wetter wet and warmmer warm and drier dry are the new norm.

Apox 25" here for JFM my folks live in the Skagit flatts near La Conner and get the full rain shadow effect, im guessing less than 10".

Happy equinox, light enough to go out to the mailbox at 8:pm, love the long northern days.

Quoting 256. win1gamegiantsplease:



Ironic who said that
But worse if Pres. Bush said it..
265. MahFL
My forecast was for 75F but it's currently 81F....hmmm, come on NWS, whats going on ?
I got a FREEZE WARNING Tonight.
Currently working on Winter 2015-16 Post Season Analysis...since Garak was the last name used, the next name is now Hudson. So, here's what I have so far for Post Season Analysis.

List of names used:
Arak’Taral
Bashir
Cretak
Dukat
Ezri
Fontaine
Garak

Arak'Taral
Date: January 9th, 2016
Severity: Minor Winter Storm
Accumulations: Forecast 1-3”, Actual Dusting-2”, isolated 3-4”
Alert: Winter Weather Advisory
Theme Song: Captain Borg by Ron Jones
General Summary: During the daytime hours on January 9th, 2016, about ½-¾” of rain fell, and St. Louis, MO got about 2” of snow. The changeover to snow began at approximately 4:30PM, however, the snow in Carbondale, IL only lasted ~4 hours, and accumulated to a dusting, which had almost melted by the morning of January 10th, 2016. Southeast Missouri got almost no snow at all. However, in Kentucky and Southeast Illinois, and part of Southwest Indiana, 2-3” fell, with some areas getting 3-4”. This snow mostly accumulated on Grassy and Elevated surfaces.

Bashir
Date: January 19-20th, 2016
Severity: Moderate Winter Storm
Accumulations: Forecast 3-5”, Actual 2-4”, some ice in SEMO
Alert: Winter Weather Advisory, then Winter Storm Warning
Theme song: Kalimbia by Mr. Scruff
General Summary: A winter weather advisory was issued on 1-19-2016, with a Winter Storm Watch for some counties in the Eastern Forecasting Area. The Advisory and Watch were upgraded to a Warning at 12:04pm on 1-19-2016 for 3-5” of snow, with some sleet accumulation as well. There was no school for [REDACTED] on 1-20-2016 due to road conditions.

Will keep y'all posted.
A pretty different El Nino event this year. No real strong storms, no real low pressures. Got a decent amount of rain in Northern Napa Valley, 6 days of measurable rainfall in Nov, 14 in Dec, 18 in Jan. Feb dry, March brought our only strong event of the season with almost 5 inches of rain Mar 9 thru the 12th. Sitting close to seasonal normal precip with a decent snow pack in the Sierra's. Now starting to think about next winter, will we see a La Nina event next year?
double post
A little too early in the season to start seeing overnight lows in the 70s.
7 day for Fort Myers. A major warm up towards the end of the week.
271. vis0
Went outside ~(Manhattan, NYC on 34st near MACYs,
looking mainly NE) and saw two layers of clouds that were right over each other.
Amazing site to see bits n pieces of clouds coming from the NE at 30 mph (at least 30) while BARELY above those clouds, more thicker canopy of clouds coming from the SW at 30+ mph. Some actually sheered the others and one could easily see this do to their fast movement.
Quoting 154. Jedkins01:

I've been noticing an odd trend this spring and winter. Every single frontal system that has moved into Florida has followed the same pattern of the line of storms weakening from the Tampa Bay area north, and holding fine south of Tampa Bay, even though when the parent system is to the north, it should be the opposite, from Tampa Bay north.

Now if it was a case where the surface low was tracking just south of Tampa throughout this whole season, it would make sense, but the amount of times the northern half of these complexes collapses from Tampa to Orlando North into Jacksonville when the parent system lies to the north is frankly down right weird that it would happen consistently over an extended period.

I've noticed that too Jedkins, at least since the beginning of February. All the rain seems to dissipate as it comes in to Orlando area from the northwest but it stays together and pounds the southern part of the state. I read somewhere that some of the frontal passages occurred with deep moisture coming up from the south but remaining south of the Orlando area with the passage of the fronts and impulses. What do you think?
Quoting 272. sanflee76:


I've noticed that too Jedkins, at least since the beginning of February. All the rain seems to dissipate as it comes in to Orlando area from the northwest but it stays together and pounds the southern part of the state. I read somewhere that some of the frontal passages occurred with deep moisture coming up from the south but remaining south of the Orlando area with the passage of the fronts and impulses. What do you think?


On several occasions, the area north of Orlando saw pre-frontal (or pre squall line) precipitation. This really stabilized the atmosphere in those areas.
While to the south, the sun was out and the squall line was able to take advantage of the higher temperatures and dewpoints.

Another really common trend is for the squall lines to move through the Tampa area in the early part of the day. Then the squall line moves through S.W. Florida in the afternoon and eventually S.E. Florida during the late evening or overnight.
This timing happens really frequently.
We broke some snowfall records yesterday:

National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Wegman said Sunday that Anchorage%u2019 official snow tally for Saturday, from Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, was 6.4 inches -- enough to topple the previous record for March 19, 5.2 inches set in 1979. The Muldoon area saw about 9.5 inches of snow for the day, with both Eagle River and Palmer seeing 10 inches.

Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20160320/last-day-winte r-snowfall-breaks-daily-record-anchorage



Hey BB - How goes it?
Quoting 273. Sfloridacat5:



On several occasions, the area north of Orlando saw pre-frontal (or pre squall line) precipitation. This really stabilized the atmosphere in those areas.
While to the south, the sun was out and the squall line was able to take advantage of the higher temperatures and dewpoints.

Another really common trend is for the squall lines to move through the Tampa area in the early part of the day. Then the squall line moves through S.W. Florida in the afternoon and eventually S.E. Florida during the late evening or overnight.
This timing happens really frequently.


Even with optimal daytime heating the storms/rain still have fallen apart so i think it's more upper atmosphere dynamics happening or lack thereof
No one has made a comment since 7:26 pm.It has been a dull weather day up here in D.C.It seems to be the theme to have nice weather solely on Wednesday's and Thursday's and we will be following that theme this week with highs in the mid 70's Thursday.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

No one has made a comment since 7:26 pm.It has been a dull weather day up here in D.C.It seems to be the theme to have nice weather solely on Wednesday's and Thursday's and we will be following that theme this week with highs in the mid 70's Thursday.

i commented at 8:09pm so not sure what ur looking at
279. vis0
Quoting 275. Dakster:

We broke some snowfall records yesterday:

National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Wegman said Sunday that Anchorage’ official snow tally for Saturday, from Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, was 6.4 inches -- enough to topple the previous record for March 19, 5.2 inches set in 1979. The Muldoon area saw about 9.5 inches of snow for the day, with both Eagle River and Palmer seeing 10 inches.

Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20160320/last-day-winte r-snowfall-breaks-daily-record-anchorage

a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20160320/last-day -winter-snowfall-breaks-daily-record-anchorage"
target="_blank">Link


Hey BB - How goes it?


Dakster took HHjoe's Atmospheric trickle and turned it into an Atmospheric snow-cone machine...grape flavour please.

This week begins the next 2 months WxTrend (according to only me). Watching to see if HHjoe gets out of season moisture, not saying super duper but an ~inch here or there for the start of what should be the drying season(s) is something.

Well looks like winter's not left Wisconsin yet. Wednesday its supposed to mix and then turn to snow 1-3" expected. The part that sucks though is that its on my Spring Break any other week its 50's and 60's all week,but when I have Spring Break nope it must snow. Gotta love Mother Nature.
Stunning Time-lapse Shows Beauty and Danger of Wildfires



Photographer and videographer Jeff Frost has spent the past few years chasing wildfires across California, to document their toll and make a point about their increased danger in a warming world.

"As each year gets hotter and fire season in the state continues to expand, I have become increasingly concerned about our continued existence on this planet," said Frost, 37, who is based in Los Angeles.


Link
Fukushima radiation has fried clean-up robots

It’s been reported that the robots sent in to remove the melted fuel rods have died — their wiring fried from the high levels of radiation as soon as they got close to the reactor, rendering them useless. These robots were just unveiled two months ago after two years of development.

Many other efforts have been made to clean up and contain the site. Human workers as well as robot counterparts are there everyday, but so far only 10 percent of the mess has actually been cleaned up. Reactors 2 and 3 are thought to have had partial meltdowns, but Reactor 1 is of the greatest concern. It’s believed that the fuel may have burned through the pressure vessel, fallen to the bottom of the containment vessel and into the concrete pedestal below.


Link
Quoting 282. RobertWC:

Fukushima radiation has fried clean-up robots

It’s been reported that the robots sent in to remove the melted fuel rods have died — their wiring fried from the high levels of radiation as soon as they got close to the reactor, rendering them useless. These robots were just unveiled two months ago after two years of development.

Many other efforts have been made to clean up and contain the site. Human workers as well as robot counterparts are there everyday, but so far only 10 percent of the mess has actually been cleaned up. Reactors 2 and 3 are thought to have had partial meltdowns, but Reactor 1 is of the greatest concern. It’s believed that the fuel may have burned through the pressure vessel, fallen to the bottom of the containment vessel and into the concrete pedestal below.


Link


Oh well back too the drawing board
Quoting 282. RobertWC:

Fukushima radiation has fried clean-up robots

It’s been reported that the robots sent in to remove the melted fuel rods have died — their wiring fried from the high levels of radiation as soon as they got close to the reactor, rendering them useless. These robots were just unveiled two months ago after two years of development.

Many other efforts have been made to clean up and contain the site. Human workers as well as robot counterparts are there everyday, but so far only 10 percent of the mess has actually been cleaned up. Reactors 2 and 3 are thought to have had partial meltdowns, but Reactor 1 is of the greatest concern. It’s believed that the fuel may have burned through the pressure vessel, fallen to the bottom of the containment vessel and into the concrete pedestal below.


Link


This is why the robots will eventually turn on us.
287. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (final images not a product of the aforementioned)
NOTE1:: Yucatan flare up actually nudges ENSO enriched moisture feed westward near Yucatan Peninsula. Though colour key is not official those are some darn high clouds for March.
NOTE2:: Its snowing in NYC since 9pm EDT. (flurries 8:30EDT)
ImgLand.net image

ZILLY NOTE:: Maybe that flare up is the winter-Spring switch shortening out , the switch a WxU member  was looking for. earlier on this bogbyte.
Remember the 2-3 month ENSO delay so maybe at this moment we over the USofA are seeing El Niño's 1.7 to 2.2 atmospheric "inter-reactions."
 
288. vis0

Quoting 283. Tazmanian:



Oh well back too the drawing board
thank goodness they were not "atomic" powered robots...they weren't, right?

They need a there stage clean up "module" robot. First stage hoover craft to encapsulated rods.
Second stage to quickly carry the now encapsulated rods into a cemebt-nano-silcone-cement blend.
Third stage, a robot to kick vis0 a-- for giving advice on nothing vis0 knows of...
Quoting 283. Tazmanian:



Oh well back too the drawing board


Spoken like some one who is not a fisherman in the North Pacific, or a rate payer of TEPCO, or a tax payer of Japan.

Sorry, but some of these middle school quips on the web to the deepest of problems we face, really get my hackles up.

One thing about the web, Lindsey Lohan's breasts , and the melt down of reactor # 1 at Fukushima both get the same level of comment. A short quip, and on to the next mess.

It's driving us all to have the attention span of gerbils. And as long as we aren't ripping out the dry wall in our houses it's all good.

Guano Insanity
290. vis0
justmehouston:

You've got mail (nothing specific just info)
Hey RobertWC,

ya have some wu mail from me.

Quoting 290. vis0:

justmehouston:

You've got mail (nothing specific just info)



Thanks vis, will respond.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

No one has made a comment since 7:26 pm.It has been a dull weather day up here in D.C.It seems to be the theme to have nice weather solely on Wednesday's and Thursday's and we will be following that theme this week with highs in the mid 70's Thursday.


Here in SoCal darn near perfect weather; sunny, lows near 50 (which cools off the house) and highs near 80. Don't think about the weather much this time of year.
Nice flare up of thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean/Yucatan channel
It odd we don't normally get that until about mid-late April


Quoting 293. canyonboy:



Here in SoCal darn near perfect weather; sunny, lows near 50 (which cools off the house) and highs near 80. Don't think about the weather much this time of year.
Indian Hills or just south of there was 55.1F(low) and 76.7F was the (high). very nice, just cool the house down with a fan in the morning and again at night and no AC or water cooler needed.
Quoting 283. Tazmanian:



Oh well back too the drawing board


Will you say that when cancer rates hit all time high and the ocean food chain is tainted? That was horrible news.
  Ice Pellets. 40's the rest of the Week, so much for the Snow..... Other than that what is up Dakster....
Quoting 297. PedleyCA:

Ice Pellets. 40's the rest of the Week, so much for the Snow..... Other than that what is up Dakster....



Weird weather for sure... I hope it isn't icy out. I can handle snow and cold. It's the going above and below freezing with rain/snow that stinks.

Really. not much. Same old same old... Getting any rain?

Quoting 298. Dakster:



Weird weather for sure... I hope it isn't icy out. I can handle snow and cold. It's the going above and below freezing with rain/snow that stinks.

Really. not much. Same old same old... Getting any? What about rain?
   All I can say is CLEAR. Been Foggy in the morning last few days. That is as close as it gets...
Maybe my investments in companies that develop desalinization plants wasn't a bad idea afterall.... (kidding)

For the first time I am no longer stressed out by Hurricane season... Which is a good feeling.
Night night everyone.... Kiddos go back to school tomorrow...
   Good Night All. I am out of here too.
Quoting 250. RobertWC:

Ice breaker: US nuclear submarine bursts through frozen Arctic ice (VIDEO)

Link

Huh? Is that ice frozen?
304. MahFL
So the NE storm went east of the 40 70 mark after all ?
Good Morning All. Cold out there across Conus today and plenty of precip in the form of snow and rain across parts of the US. We always get a few shots of Old Man Winter well into March and this is a cold one.



Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Mon Mar 21 2016

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 21 2016 - 12Z Wed Mar 23 2016

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California...

...Heavy snow possible along the Northeast Coast...

Snow will continue for today for coastal areas spanning from Massachusetts
to eastern Maine as a low pressure system tracks northeastward over the
Atlantic Ocean. Snow will taper off by late tonight/early Tuesday morning
as the central low pressure reaches the Canadian Maritimes. Accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches is forecast along the coast, with 4 to 10 inches possible
for extreme eastern Maine.

Meanwhile, a front over northern Intermountain West/Great Basin regions
will progress eastward in the Central and Northern Plains by this evening.
Light snow is forecast for the higher elevations today. Snow will increase
in intensity, as well as, expand to lower elevations and areas east of the
front range. Central Wyoming could have accumulations reaching or
exceeding 1 foot by Wednesday morning. A cold front pushing south from
Canada into the High Plains/Upper Midwest will link up with the boundary
moving out of the Rockies by Tuesday morning. Light snow will develop
across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This front will
stretch from the Central Plains to the Northeast by Thursday morning. Snow
will develop from Nebraska to Maine along this boundary. Snow
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches is expected, with 4 to 8 inches forecast
from northern Iowa to western Michigan and upstate New York.

The Pacific Northwest will have rain and mountain snow through Wednesday
morning as multiple system trek through from the Pacific. Coastal areas
are forecast to have 3-day totals of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated areas of
4 inches in northern California. As the front pushes further inland, snow
levels will lower by Tuesday morning for the ranges in the Northwest and
northern California.
The current look, jet dip with the cold air pushing in from Canada, and the lows this morning:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

And finally that that band of snow pushing across the NE corridor:
Northeast sector loop
 

Also note the blobs of convection in the Atlantic off of the NE-Canadian maritimes relative to the warmer SST anomaly near the Gulf Stream:



Good morning everyone. Haven't been able to keep up lately as my schedule has been crazy, hope all is well and the Deep South is getting dried out. Going to be a nice spring like start to the week for me with Monday and Tuesday in the high 50's low 60's....and then I'm going to have to dig my winter coat back out for Wednesday.



I'm located on the right side of the darkest blue.
Nino 3.4 continues to creep downward as the CPC 3/21/16 update is down to +1.7C.



CPC Weekly Update
Quoting 308. weathermanwannabe:

Also note the blobs of convection in the Atlantic off of the NE-Canadian maritimes relative to the warmer SST anomaly near the Gulf Stream:








G0RRRRR! Those are not blobs. They are just disorganized clumps of clouds and convection. As we all know, when you overuse your blobs, they become less special. :)

Quoting 311. Grothar:





G0RRRRR! Those are not blobs. They are just disorganized clumps of clouds and convection. As we all know, when you overuse your blobs, they become less special. :)


My deep apologies Sir.............These spotty clumps of convection do not even remotely qualify for Grocon Blob status............. I stand corrected........:)
Quoting 303. cRRKampen:


Huh? Is that ice frozen?


Yes. This has been done several times.. I think the first was in 1958.
With today Nino 3.4 at 1.7 looks like the strong. El Niño. Has been Dowgraded from strong too mod EL Nino
Just looking at the main story... so many maps marked in reds, greens, yellows... sometimes the color blind like me can make out what is what in these weather maps by context, as in when fronts are coming in, though the hooks people see of contrasting colors for tornados all look the same.

But climate maps like these, impossible. I can't tell a rain deficit from a surplus.

So frustrating.
Any flights from Orlando or South Florida to Bermuda would have a nice tail wind today and make the flight in record time due to the straight line jet winds......................................


Quoting 313. georgevandenberghe:



Yes. This has been done several times.. I think the first was in 1958.

I know.
I was just surprised at that headline, reading 'Arctic frozen ice'. I never knew ice was frozen. Must be specific to the Arctic, not just ice, but actually frozen ice. Staggering...
Brrrrr.. woke up to upper 30's this morning. Feeling sorry for the Spring Beakers who didn't pack any jackets..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 318. JNFlori30A:

Brrrrr.. woke up to upper 30's this morning. Feeling sorry for the Spring Beakers who didn't pack any jackets..


I always question why Spring Breakers go to north Florida.

It's a little cool today here in Fort Myers, but the rest of the week it will be really warm.

Quoting 310. Tropicsweatherpr:

Nino 3.4 continues to creep downward as the CPC 3/21/16 update is down to 1.7C.



CPC Weekly Update
Quoting 314. Tazmanian:

With today Nino 3.4 at 1.7 looks like the strong. El Nio. Has been Dowgraded from strong too mod EL Nino


Others that keep track on anomalies in Nio regions have weekly values lower some have 1.6 even BOM which has it the loses has 3.4 at 1.5 and falling CPC might be modest

I'll take the median value and say 1.6

I say no doubt El Nio is no longer strong and I'd say soon to be down to weak and maybe we might see neutral by Early mid Spring

Anyway sub surface is really cooling off the sub surface anoms chart now switched to negative

Anyway next weeks update and BOM update on the 29th March and first week of April updates should be very interesting

Also wanted to point out even though CFS is a very big outlier right now I've noticed on every update over the last few updates it has been dropping in intensity shifting bit by bit closer to neutral and La Nia I think when we start getting out of the Spring predictability barrier the CFS will follow suit with the rest of the models into La Nia

Speaking about Spring predictability barrier I say that the models are being a bit slow on transition and weak on intensity of the incoming La Nia due to us entering the Spring predictability barrier IMO
322. vis0

Quoting 312. weathermanwannabe:

My deep apologies Sir.............These spotty clumps of convection do not even remotely qualify for Grocon Blob status............. I stand corrected........:)
Not to worry i've posted to Grothar thinking "BL**" on things as, cotton balls which had become statically attracted to my screen, or even when Santa leaned forward and his beard passed in front of a MACY*s monitor with a map of the Atlantic. The worst was when my friend poodle jump in front of me and in seeing the poodle's 3 white puffs on its tail i jumped thinking WOW a rare 3 "BL**" sighting. i need to take 4 years of Blobology 1(@)1 and get glasses.

Back to observing weather and learning from past mistakes or weather extremes so we can give those ahead of us a better opportunity to enjoy Earth.