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El NIño’s Long-Awaited Grand Performance Is On Its Way to California


By: Bob Henson 6:07 PM GMT on March 02, 2016

After a crushingly dry February, it looks as if early to mid-March is likely to bring California some of the serious moisture it needs from the 2015-16 El Niño event--and perhaps some unwanted flooding and mudslides. Long-range models are increasingly confident that the low-latitude jet stream that’s been dodging the California coast for weeks will finally plow into the state over the next 10 to 15 days, hauling copious amounts of Pacific moisture inland with it. The last few runs of the GFS and ECMWF models have become especially bullish on the development of one or two atmospheric rivers (ARs) heading into California over the next week or two. Roughly 30% to 50% of annual precipitation in the West Coast states occurs from just a few AR events per year.

The first significant storm should plow into northern and central California this coming weekend, followed by a stronger series of storms affecting most of the state during the following week. The 0Z Wednesday operational run of the GFS model doused parts of the central and northern California and Sierra Nevada with 10” to 20” of precipitation over the ten-day period ending at 7:00 pm EST Friday, March 11. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles, though less dramatic than individual runs, still paint a very wet picture for the state. It remains unclear how far into southern California the biggest rains and mountain snows will extend. The outlook for very heavy precipitation is a bit more confident from central California all the way north to Washington. Already, some California reservoirs are releasing water: though this may seem odd while the region is still in drought, it’s a long-employed strategy to help reduce the odds of flooding when torrential rains are predicted.

The stormy weather is coming just in time for the close of the El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign being conducted by NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory. The project includes flights from a NOAA Gulfstream IV hurricane-hunting aircraft, as well as hundreds of radiosonde and dropsonde launches profiling the remote Pacific atmosphere. An extra week has been added to the project’s flight schedule, which will now run through March 10. See our blog post from January 12 for more on this project.


Figure 1. The 7-day forecast for precipitation from 12Z (7:00 am EST) Wednesday, March 2, 2016, through Wednesday, March 9. Another round of intense precipitation may also affect California late next week, just beyond the range of this forecast. Image credit: NOAA/WPC.


With a little help from the MJO
The Madden-Julian Oscillation can be credited, at least in part, for the precipitation prospects over California. This recurrent cycle of tropical showers and thunderstorms has an active phase that has recently pushed eastward to the eastern Pacific, with a suppressed phase on the opposite side of the global tropics, over the Maritime Continent. Acting in tandem with the state of El Niño itself, the active MJO phase will enhance the moisture available to be drawn from the tropics into the subtropics, where the juicy air can be entrained into midlatitude storms and any atmospheric rivers approaching California. By later in March, when the active phase has moved to the Maritime Continent, a suppressed phase should follow on its heels over the eastern Pacific. “This could temper the favorable intraseasonal/seasonal state that drives California precipitation,” said Michael Ventrice (The Weather Company). As a result, West Coast rains and mountain snows may well decrease again in the latter half of March, at least for a week or two.


Figure 2. Integrated water vapor transport (IVT) projected to be heading toward California by the 00Z Wednesday GFS model run at 00Z Sunday, March 6 (7:00 pm EST Saturday). IVT incorporates the amount of moisture in the atmosphere as well as how quickly it’s moving. The channel of moisture heading toward central California includes IVT of greater than 750 kg/m/s. IVT is used by many researchers and forecasters to identify and track the evolution of atmospheric rivers. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


The flop that was February in California
Only a month ago, there was good reason for drought-stricken Californians to believe that the state was on its way to at least partial recovery after four years of punishing drought. Several major storms had pushed snowpack just above the seasonal average in the crucial Sierra Nevada range, which supplies about a third of the state’s water supply through snowmelt. The hope was that February and March would consolidate these early gains with at least a few more wet-but-not-damaging storms.

Then came February--a disappointingly dry month for any winter, much less an El Niño one. The month was dominated by an upper-level ridge that blocked Pacific storms and allowed temperatures to hit record levels beneath clear, sunny skies. It wasn’t quite the winter-long Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that marked the last couple of years, but it was enough to tamp down the modest precipitation surpluses across many areas. Most parts of the state got only a paltry 10-20% of average precipitation in February, as noted by Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services). Four major cities--San Diego, Los Angeles (Downtown), Sacramento (Executive Airport), and San Jose--saw their warmest February on record. By month’s end, the Sierra snowpack had dwindled to 85% of its typical water equivalent for the date.

What’s especially striking is how the November-to-February period turned the West Coast precipitation pattern typical of strong El Niño events on its ear. Seattle gets about twice the moisture of Los Angeles between November and February in an average year--roughly 21” vs. 10” (see Figure 3). Strong El Niño events tend to boost LA’s rainfall substantially, with little effect on Seattle’s. This time around, Los Angeles netted just 4.54” from November through February, while Seattle racked up an amazing 32.91”. In fact, by some measures, Seattle is having the wettest winter in its history, and even more heavy rain is on the way (see Figure 1 above). WU weather historian Christopher Burt takes a closer look at the precipitation to date across California in his latest post.


Figure 3. November-February precipitation totals for Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles for each of the El Niño seasons classified as “strong” or “very strong” by NOAA since 1950. Image credit: Christopher Burt.


What kept the rain away?
It’s not uncommon to get a two- or three-week break between winter storms over California, especially toward the south, but the duration of the February mini-drought in the midst of a powerful El Niño was a puzzler for experts and everyday Californians alike. Data gathered throughout the month by NOAA’s field project may help shed light on what happened. One obvious factor: a change in the equatorial showers and thunderstorms (convection) that typically lead to El Niño impacts on a broader scale. Instead of the convection shifting to the eastern tropical Pacific, as is typical during a strong El Niño, most of the storminess in February was centered over the central Pacific. The downstream effects of this dislocation likely played a role in the West Coast ridging and the dearth of major California storms.


Figure 4. Sea surface temperatures (relative to seasonal average) for February 15, 1998 (top) and February 15, 2016 (bottom). Image credit: NASA.

Along with the displaced convection, the west-to-east gradient in sea-surface temperature across the tropical Pacific has been substantially weaker than it was during other strong El Niño events of modern times. The eastern tropical Pacific has been plenty warm: sea surface temperatures in the crucial Niño3.4 measuring region were 3.1°C (5.6°F) above average in the week of November 18. That’s the warmest weekly departure in NOAA records going back to 1990. What’s been absent, for the most part, is the horseshoe-shaped region of cooler-than-average water that typically cradles the west end of the El Niño equatorial warming, extending from Indonesia toward the northeast and southeast (see Figure 4, top, from February 1998). “These anomalies just never materialized, perhaps due to the background warming trend, or some other currently unknown reason,” said Klaus Wolter (NOAA/ESRL).

Likewise, the east-to-west trade winds across the tropical Pacific have not weakened or reversed as much as in previous strong El Niño events. “In January 1983 and 1998, it was very cool west of the Date Line, especially in the Northern Hemisphere,” pointed out Kevin Trenberth (National Center for Atmospheric Research). “This year it’s at least 1°C warmer. The gradients along the equator are much less. So the reversal in the trade winds is nowhere near as extensive or as strong as it was in those two events.”

All of these factors have thrown sand in the cogs of the El Niño machine, cutting back on its ability to synchronize ocean and atmosphere across the tropical Pacific. “Every El Niño has its own character and gets modulated by other effects,” Trenberth noted. Despite its idiosyncrasies, the El Niño machine of 2015-16 is far from broken right now. Although the West Coast response to this El Niño hasn’t followed the playbook, many other parts of the world have seen prototypical El Niño conditions over the last few months. These include:

Drought, fires and severe air pollution over Indonesia late last year
—A reduced summer monsoon over India, plus catastophic autumn rains in far southeast India (both consistent with El Niño)
Increasing heat and drought across northeast Brazil, along with significant drought relief over the hard-hit Sao Paolo region
—The exacerbation of a severe multiyear drought in southern Africa
—Warmer-than-average winter temperatures across Canada and the northern U.S. (in fact, virtually all of the contiguous U.S. saw a warmer-than-average winter)
—Wet conditions and enhanced severe weather across the Gulf Coast and Florida


Figure 5. The mean value of model-generated departures from average precipitation for each month from November through April during strong El Niño events. The maps are based on an ensemble of 130 simulations of weather from 1979 to 2014. Image credit: Andrew Hoell, NOAA/ESRL.


It’s the whole wet season that counts
Ever since last autumn, when it became clear this El Niño was likely to be among the biggest on record, experts warned not to expect an entire winter chock-full of heavy rain over California. Seasonal forecasts from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center trended toward a wet winter, to be sure, but they were amply caveated with the small but real chance that precipitation could wind up below average. The importance of El Niño’s strength in determining the California outcome was highlighted in a paper published this winter in Geophysical Research Letters. To get around the problem of small sample size, lead author Andrew Hoell (NOAA/ESRL) and colleagues classified each winter from 1979 to 2014 based on its Niño3.4 temperatures through that period. Then they simulated the weather over that 35-year period a total of 130 times, using three different models primed with the actual evolution of SSTs, sea ice, greenhouse gases, and ozone. The resulting ensemble thus offered 130 different takes on how a given series of El Niño events might influence California rain and snow.

Not too surprisingly, strong El Niño events are most likely to make California wet. During a strong event, the study found that Northern California is roughly five times more likely to get a winter with 150% of average precipitation, with a near-zero chance of getting less than 50% of average. The less intuitive outcome is that moderate and weak El Niños showed only a small (and less reliable) ramp-up in average precipitation. In southern California, the effect of a strong El Niño was even greater: for such events, the models showed a near-zero chance of getting less than 75% of normal November-to-April precipitation.

If it were to stay most dry in southern California this March and April, that near-zero chance would become a reality. However, it appears that March is just as climatologically likely as any other month to produce a bumper crop of rainfall relative to average across the region during a strong El Niño (see Figure 5 above). There is still plenty of room for a “Miracle March” to boost the entire water-year outlook, as this month just might manage to do.

We’ll be back with our next post on Friday.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Panorama of the scanning X-Band radar installed in San Francisco in support of the NOAA 2016 El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign Image credit: Francesc Junyent, CSU/CIRA.


Figure 7. Participants confer at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder at a daily forecast briefing for the NOAA 2016 El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign. Image credit: Barb DeLuisi.

El Niño Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

DOOM..... Thanks for the Update....
Very very interesting Dr. Masters and Henson. I pray that California gets the rain it needs. Anyways very interesting setup. Here are the sst anomalies.
Better this way! Thanks for the update Mr Henson! I hope to see Shasta Lake full!
WPC forecaster breaks out the adjective handbook......


...SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS BOMBARDING THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...
Thank You Mr. Henson; the new drought chart for this week will be issued tomorrow morning but will still look like this for parts of California pending some rain. Whether it will be enough to make a good dent in the deficits remains to be seen but they need all the rain they can get in spite of the potential short-term flooding issues for human consumption, livestock and all of the agricultural needs for the upcoming Spring and Summer:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor%uFFFD
Quoting 2. PedleyCA:

DOOM


FINALLY.

I mean, what's a state gotta do to get El Nino's attention around here?

Great news for the water situation, though...
RUSSIA - NEW RECORD WARMEST WINTER (AGAIN): Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter in Russia. The previous record holder was winter of 2014-2015.

Link
USA'S NORTHERNMOST CITY - NEW RECORD WARMEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter in Barrow, Alaska.

Link
The highest forecast precipitation totals are over the large storage lakes in Northern California. 12-16" forecast totals next 10 days. You can see the lakes on the map as little black spots on the yellow color. Left to Right are Trinity Lake, Shasta Lake and further SE is Lake Oroville.

Glad Cali is getting rain. Too bad it has to be so much all at once...

It got a little colder here, +30F at the moment. Beats yesterday's +45F it was by now.
Quoting 10. DCSwithunderscores:

USA'S NORTHERNMOST CITY - NEW RECORD WARMEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter in Barrow, Alaska.

Link


I drove up to Barrow and took some photos. It has warmed up. Here is one of my favorites.

Quoting 2. PedleyCA:

DOOM..... Thanks for the Update....


As forecast now, most rain and snow will be going to Central/Northern Cal. This is ok with me as this is the best place for it to go.Just give us down here in Soo Cal a few storms to green things up and all is good. Rain Totals at mi casa January 2016 7.10", Feb 0.04", March 0.00.
Quoting 11. HurricaneHunterJoe:

The highest forecast precipitation totals are over the large storage lakes in Northern California. 12-16" forecast totals next 10 days. You can see the lakes on the map as little black spots on the yellow color. Left to Right are Trinity Lake, Shasta Lake and further SE is Lake Oroville.



It would be nice if the rain was more spread out over time, but this is how it tends to roll in Cali. Actually all this rain is coming over a few storms and multiple days so flooding will probably not be that bad. The good thing is all the snow accumulation we're gonna get. Let's hope it melts relatively slowly, however the odds of that seem less likely with post Nino global temperatures spiking even more over the months to come.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 2h2 hours ago
Euro ticked north a bit for tomorrow night/Fri AM. Not enough to matter much, but may be trend into game time. Perhaps we can get a NW band.
Quoting 17. washingtonian115:

Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 2h2 hours ago
Euro ticked north a bit for tomorrow night/Fri AM. Not enough to matter much, but may be trend into game time. Perhaps we can get a NW band.


This system is not a lock even now and needs to be watched for even a slight trend north and west.

Told my kids about 50% chance of school delays on Friday but the one who goes to Catonsville.. probably 70%, the one who goes to Laurel 40%
Quoting 13. Dakster:



I drove up to Barrow and took some photos. It has warmed up. Here is one of my favorites.




Watch out for the fire ants!
12.98" in January (wettest January on record)
2.05" in February (.15" below normal)

Not a consistent El-Nino across my area (Fort Myers)
Quoting 17. washingtonian115:

Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 2h2 hours ago
Euro ticked north a bit for tomorrow night/Fri AM. Not enough to matter much, but may be trend into game time. Perhaps we can get a NW band.

You got mail.
Quoting 19. georgevandenberghe:



Watch out for the fire ants!


Before I booked my tickets to Barrow for Spring Break I had to do a quick check.

It was -3 with light snow. I think I'll have to wait a while. I do see what appears to be open water well offshore. That seems quite unusual if that's the case.
I have a feeling that possibly an overlooked factor in El Nino's behavior is the present SST difference from the past year, not the 30-year average. With the rate of warming at present and the fact that convection, evaporation, and rainfall are based on local and current differences rather than 30-year averages, the lack of a significant difference may reduce the impact. Thus if the Pacific just West of California is warmer now than in the past, that could be warming the air mass enough to reduce the moisture percentage and thus affect the ability of elevation change in the mountains to wring moisture from the air mass.
Wow, 24+ inches over 24 hours forecasted by the GFS around the Mississippi River. Let's hope this doesn't verify, it would be some of the worst flooding we've ever seen in this country (storm surge events excluded).


Quoting 22. Sfloridacat5:



Before I booked my tickets to Barrow for Spring Break I had to do a quick check.

It was -3 with light snow. I think I'll have to wait a while. I do see what appears to be open water well offshore. That seems quite unusual if that's the case.



In all reality there is a huge problem with open water and warmth. Root cellars which in the Villages along the North Slope are their main refridgerator are getting too warm and food is spoiling. Polar Bears are having a problems hunting as they hunt on the ocean ice. And Grizzlies are going further North. For some reason Polar Bears are scare dof Grizzlies despite their obvious strength and size advantage. Although they are sorta cross breeding, so you get either a Grolar or a PIzzly bears... *I like the Grolar term better, remind me of Grothar here...

-3F is actually pretty warm and tame for winter in Barrow... Even Fairbanks never got colder than -20F and they are supposed to get at least a couple of weeks of colder than -40F. This is all newspaper information, it isn't like I have lived here all my life.
Quoting 20. Sfloridacat5:

12.98" in January (wettest January on record)
2.05" in February (.15" below normal)

Not a consistent El-Nino across my area (Fort Myers)


I wonder if we'll see any of these rains in Central Fl? Compared to 97/98, this el nino has been a dud for us.
Quoting 25. Dakster:



In all reality there is a huge problem with open water and warmth. Root cellars which in the Villages along the North Slope are their main refridgerator are getting too warm and food is spoiling. Polar Bears are having a problems hunting as they hunt on the ocean ice. And Grizzlies are going further North. For some reason Polar Bears are scare dof Grizzlies despite their obvious strength and size advantage. Although they are sorta cross breeding, so you get either a Grolar or a PIzzly bears... *I like the Grolar term better, remind me of Grothar here...

-3F is actually pretty warm and tame for winter in Barrow... Even Fairbanks never got colder than -20F and they are supposed to get at least a couple of weeks of colder than -40F. This is all newspaper information, it isn't like I have lived here all my life.


I've been checking the Barrow Ice Cam for a long time (5-10 years at least). I don't remember ever seeing open water offshore at this time of year.
Quoting 27. Sfloridacat5:



I've been checking the Barrow Ice Cam for a long time (5-10 years at least). I don't remember ever seeing open water offshore at this time of year.


It's dramatic and to be honest with the hotter Anchorage is getting and my heat intolerance I could see myself moving even further north. And I am already north of 60 degrees...
Quoting 28. Dakster:



It's dramatic and to be honest with the hotter Anchorage is getting and my heat intolerance I could see myself moving even further north. And I am already north of 60 degrees...


Ask Grothar about Norway?
Quoting 29. SunnyDaysFla:



Ask Grothar about Norway?


He had the opposite problem... Too cold... I'm not ready to be an ex-pat yet.

Although Miami Beach is talking with Norway seeing as the tide is rolling into the beach. Norway has some good idea on ways to help in that regard.
Very good and interesting entry on El Nino in California, Bob! Thank you! What a delight if the Californians could get rid of the extreme drought soon!

In Germany/western Europe we currently experience quite normal late winter weather with decent snow for some - which didn't happen the last years. Although weather isn't that pleasant, I'm glad that we're able to gather a good amount of precipitation this year. In eastern Europe and beyond the anomalies of too warm temperatures are forecast to persist for at least the next week, though:



Further east it's just the other way round. Just saw the following article of unusual grim weather in Mongolia.

Aid agencies brace for devastating Mongolian 'dzud' this winter
Source: Reuters - Wed, 2 Mar 2016 09:57 GMT, By Terrence Edwards
ULAANBAATAR, March 2 (Reuters) - Global aid agencies are responding to a call for assistance by Mongolia as harsh winter weather raises fears for the safety and livelihoods of the country's traditional pastoralists, who have already been hit hard by a drought last year.
Dry weather has scorched most of Mongolia's wheat crop and now mass animal deaths due to a freezing winter, locally known as "dzud", are threatening more pain for the country, where farming accounts for about 13 percent of the economy. The last dzud in 2009-2010 killed 9.7 million of the country's livestock, according to the National Emergency Agency of Mongolia.
While the government has not yet declared the current winter a natural disaster, it has warned the situation could get worse. So far, a drop in temperatures to minus 55 Celsius (minus 67 Fahrenheit) has killed nearly 200,000 livestock.
The weather and grazing conditions are already worse than they were in the previous dzud, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said in a statement, citing the Mongolian Ministry of Food and Agriculture.
"Usually for the dzud, the most devastation is observed in March, April and May," Garid Enkhjin, national programme coordinator for the IFRC in Mongolia, told Reuters.
The IFRC said it has launched an emergency appeal for 834,000 Swiss Francs ($835,000) to assist 25,500 Mongolian herders, who are at risk of losing their livestock and livelihoods due to the extreme winter.
Currently, 80 percent of Mongolia is under snow, making it difficult for nomadic families to travel along centuries-old pasture routes to find food for their livestock. Aggravating the situation is the fact that herders can live up to 50 kms (31 miles) from urban settlements and many are without cars.
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has said it plans to provide trucks to get aid to families' doorsteps at some of the most-difficult-to-reach areas. ...

Whole artice see link above.
Quoting 14. HurricaneHunterJoe:



As forecast now, most rain and snow will be going to Central/Northern Cal. This is ok with me as this is the best place for it to go.Just give us down here in Soo Cal a few storms to green things up and all is good. Rain Totals at mi casa January 2016 7.10", Feb 0.04", March 0.00.


Here, January 2016 2.73", Feb 0.55", March 0.00.
Quoting 28. Dakster:



It's dramatic and to be honest with the hotter Anchorage is getting and my heat intolerance I could see myself moving even further north. And I am already north of 60 degrees...


Sure the planet is warming, but Anchorage "hotter"? You're joking, right?
NORMAL? WASHINGTON'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - WETTEST WINTER FOLLOWS WARMEST WINTER & HOTTEST SUMMER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record wettest winter in Seattle WA. Summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) of 2015 is the record hottest summer there. Winter of 2014-2015 is the record warmest winter there.

Link
Quoting 20. Sfloridacat5:

12.98" in January (wettest January on record)
2.05" in February (.15" below normal)

Not a consistent El-Nino across my area (Fort Myers)


I don't think El Nino ever is. People keep expecting it to, but analyze other past events, and you'll find the same inconsistency. All the questions about where was El Nino in February in CA comes from not understanding that El Nino only raises the probability of increased precip, not guarantees it, and individual longwave patterns still dominate like they always do. El Nino is just an increase in SST's, so it's more like impressive back round noise, not a weather pattern.

FL had below average precip in January 1998 and no severe weather, followed by a very rainy February and a lot of severe weather. January 2016 was very rainy in FL with well above average severe weather, February has been near to below average precip and above average severe in portions of FL, but not in others.

This is how El Nino works. There are no guarantees. Just as though August is on average the rainiest month in Central FL, that doesn't mean other months aren't going to be on a given year.
"juicy air"

Love that colorful prose.
For every 1 degree Celsius the weather warmed, researchers found an 8 percent increase in E. coli-related diarrhea cases.

Climate Change Will Increase the World%u2019s Cases of Deadly Diarrhea
E. coli, a prolific killer, is going to thrive in warmer waters.

Just about the only creatures on Earth thriving as a result of climate change are the pests that pose major health risks to people around the world. Bacteria, in particular, are enjoying the upheaval. They%u2019re taking advantage of the cozier climate to expand their reach and infect hundreds of thousands of additional people every year.

In Bangladesh, where temperatures are expected to rise 0.8 degrees Celsius by 2035, a new study suggests that 800,000 additional people will suffer from E. coli-induced diarrhea. By the end of the century, with temperatures 2.1 degrees warmer than today, we can expect 2.2 million additional cases in Bangladesh

Link
Fort Myers, Florida 7 day
Gale After Gale After Gale Dumped Two and a Half Feet of Rain Upon Scotland and Wales This Winter

Reports from the UK Met Office are in. And we can say now with confidence that the UK have never seen weather like what they experienced this Winter. It looks like a storm track super-charged by climate change really socked it to the region this year. That we’ve just passed a winter worse than the then record years of 2013 and 2014 — only two years on.

Link
Quoting 39. Sfloridacat5:

Fort Myers, Florida 7 day



If it would only stay like this all year....
Mashable (Andrew Freedman) – Climate deniers lose key talking point as satellites show temperatures hit all-time highs

“February was the warmest month in the satellite record of atmospheric temperatures, according to new data. This is just the first domino to fall during what will likely prove to be the warmest, or one of the warmest, months on record as more data trickles in on conditions during February.

The satellite data deals a setback to climate deniers that frequently cite the satellite record of atmospheric temperatures as evidence that human-caused global warming either doesn’t exist or is far smaller than scientists claim. ”


Link
Quoting 29. SunnyDaysFla:



Ask Grothar about Norway?


Norway and much of Scandinavia is getting warmer. I've posted a few articles of the problems they are having with irregular growing seasons. I never cared much for cold weather. I remember one time we got a foot of snow.


Australia underprepared to deal with 'killer heat', Climate Council report says

The number of record hot days in Australia has doubled in the past 50 years.

Heatwaves have killed more Australians than any other natural hazard and have caused more deaths since 1890 than bushfires, cyclones, earthquakes, floods and severe storms combined, the report said.

The heat places "a dramatic demand" on public facilities such as hospitals and the system is so stretched there is no capacity to increase services.


Link


Key Points:

The 2009 heatwave killed over 370 people
Heatwaves have killed more people than fires, cyclones, floods
Cardiac arrests triple during heatwaves
Whole of society approach needed to make changes

Quoting 30. Dakster:



He had the opposite problem... Too cold... I'm not ready to be an ex-pat yet.

Although Miami Beach is talking with Norway seeing as the tide is rolling into the beach. Norway has some good idea on ways to help in that regard.


Rotterdam has one of the most innovative systems to prevent flooding in one of the most flood prone cities.

Here's a link to and article from a few years ago

Link


Another great link

Link
“The Old Normal Is Gone”: February Shatters Global Temperature Records

Keep in mind that it took from the dawn of the industrial age until last October to reach the first 1.0 degree Celsius, and we’ve come as much as an extra 0.4 degrees further in just the last five months. Even accounting for the margin of error associated with these preliminary datasets, that means it’s virtually certain that February handily beat the record set just last month for the most anomalously warm month ever recorded. That’s stunning.

Link
Quoting 41. PedleyCA:


If it would only stay like this all year....
Now you know why I like it here in Boquete, Panama at 3,200' elevation, Ped. Your current weekly forecast is my year-round forecast - just add pop-up T-storms for the April-November rainy season, and you're showing my daily weather forecast. (Although it's usually down only to the low 60's at night, and very seldom dips below that into the high 50's.)

We don't get frontal systems and, at 8.5 N latitude, and we are below the hurricane zone.

The weather here is truly remarkable, and being a narrow isthmus in the trade-wind belt with the Caribbean on one Side and the Pacific Ocean on the other, visible smog is non-existent.

Sometimes, the clouds that are pushed over the mountains from the Caribbean and evaporate over Boquete remind me of the fog coming over the coastal hills in Northern California, my home for most of my adult life before moving to expat-land.

Quoting 41. PedleyCA:



If it would only stay like this all year....


In a non- El-Nino year, the weather is usually close to perfect almost every day here in S.W. Florida from November -mid April.
April is still very dry, but it starts getting a little warm (low 80s increase to upper 80s by the end of April).

May is also a dry month, but it's hot (upper 80s to near 90 everyday).

Then June - September is extremely hot and humid with thunderstorms almost every day. Then in October the rainy season ends and the temperatures start coming down to the mid 80s towards the end of the month.
Quoting 22. Sfloridacat5:



Before I booked my tickets to Barrow for Spring Break I had to do a quick check.

It was -3 with light snow. I think I'll have to wait a while. I do see what appears to be open water well offshore. That seems quite unusual if that's the case.



There was an enormous "cracking" event in the Beaufort Sea in the last days which extends near to the Barrow area. as can be seen on this image from the EOSDIS Worldview website:



There is still time for substantial refreeze, but the new ice will be weak and fragile.
The local forescasters have 10 inches of rain in the Santa Cruz Mountains, which is great news for the South Bay since earlier rains seem to cut off before reaching them. The reservoirs which are currently way down should fill up nicely. On the other hand, the North Bay which includes the Napa and Sonoma valleys may have some flooding. Naturally, most of us around here are hoping they're right about the torrential rains for the Sierra foothills, and that the cold air intrusion materializes late Sunday and Monday so that some of that translates to several feet of snow above 5-6000 feet.

Polar and subtropical jets merging off of Asia with nice broad moisture tap for upcoming West Coast storms.
Quoting 19. georgevandenberghe:



Watch out for the fire ants!


They've already started building their hills here, since about two weeks ago
Quoting 43. Grothar:



Norway and much of Scandinavia is getting warmer. I've posted a few articles of the problems they are having with irregular growing seasons. I never cared much for cold weather. I remember one time we got a foot of snow.




My goodness! So much for quiet snowfalls. I bet that sounded like thunder when it fell.
Quoting 38. RobertWC:

For every 1 degree Celsius the weather warmed, researchers found an 8 percent increase in E. coli-related diarrhea cases.

Climate Change Will Increase the World%u2019s Cases of Deadly Diarrhea
E. coli, a prolific killer, is going to thrive in warmer waters.

Just about the only creatures on Earth thriving as a result of climate change are the pests that pose major health risks to people around the world. Bacteria, in particular, are enjoying the upheaval. They%u2019re taking advantage of the cozier climate to expand their reach and infect hundreds of thousands of additional people every year.

In Bangladesh, where temperatures are expected to rise 0.8 degrees Celsius by 2035, a new study suggests that 800,000 additional people will suffer from E. coli-induced diarrhea. By the end of the century, with temperatures 2.1 degrees warmer than today, we can expect 2.2 million additional cases in Bangladesh

Link


What a bunch of nonsense (clickbait) this is. I am sure climate change is the main reason, if we had the same sanitary and food standards as Bangladesh the numbers in the U.S would scare you to death

Could climate change make the problem worse sure but it is hardly the biggest worry

Think Chipotle
57. vis0
.Got carried away was having a DELICIOUS Pizza and forgot i no longer post that stuff, bad habits hard to break, apology to moderators for the this comment.
Actually tried to only take out only the part that had my theories  so some could enjoy the zilly comments but editing would not take hold
Saw this on the convective outlook:

000
acus02 kwns 021706
swody2
Storm Prediction Center ac 021705


Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 am CST Wednesday Mar 02 2016


Valid 031200z - 041200z


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...


...
scattered thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley to coastal Carolina Thursday.


...


Strong middle-level speed maximum is expected to dig southeastward across OK into
southern Arkansas by 18z before translating into southern Georgia during the overnight
hours early Friday. Steep middle-level lapse rates will spread along a
corridor from the lower MS valley...east-southeastward off the Carolina coast
along/north of aforementioned speed maximum. Large-scale ascent within
high-level diffluent flow regime should encourage elevated
convection across Arkansas/la/MS/al early in the period. Forecast
soundings over this region exhibit sufficient buoyancy for a few
robust updrafts rooted near 850mb. Latest NAM guidance suggests
strongest updrafts may produce marginally severe hail as cloud-layer
shear will be more than adequate for sustaining updrafts. Even
so...instability appears a bit too weak to warrant meaningful severe
probs. This activity should spread/develop toward the Georgia/California coast
during the overnight hours in conjunction with progressive
short-wave trough.



.Darrow.. 03/02/2016


That must be one LONG storm system...
Flip to a dry MDR for peak season, CFS has also been trending for dry mdr for the peak season.
#pray for Houston (?)

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 021007
SPC AC 021007

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST WED MAR 02 2016

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME DAYS 4-5 WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY BY DAY 6-7 AS SYNOPTIC TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WRN
STATES. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING TIMING SMALLER SCALE FEATURES TO DELAY
INTRODUCTION OF CATEGORICAL RISK AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN OPTIMAL MOISTURE RETURN DAYS 5-6.

SUNDAY /DAY 4/ DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...AND AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MIGHT EXIST
FROM NCNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF OK. HOWEVER...EARLY TIMING OF WEAK LEAD
WAVE MAY RESULT IN EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN WARM SECTOR AND
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MONDAY /DAY 5/ A NARROW CORRIDOR OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS BENEATH EML
PLUME AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AND THIS MAY FOSTER THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG DRYLINE. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW MOIST AXIS SOMEWHAT
DISPLACED FROM ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING...AND THERE MIGHT BE
LINGERING ISSUES WITH ONGOING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST...AND THIS REGION WILL PROBABLY BE INCLUDED IN A CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

TUESDAY /DAY 6/ QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN WARM
SECTOR FROM ERN TX/OK INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...AND SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES WARM SECTOR.
FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. A CATEGORICAL RISK
AREA WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED IN THE NEXT UPDATE IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEMONSTRATE CONSISTENCY.

Sounds like my city's in for a wild, wild ride, folks.
Quoting 49. Grothar:




Want me to drink my ovaltine?
Buoys off the coast of the SF Bay Area are still showing above normal SSTs for this time of year. The SF buoy for example popped 58 F again today.
You guys remember winter??

And it's bad that when I typed that I didn't think immediately about the cold...

I've seemed to have forgotten what "cold" is...

Edgar is the only winter I know..

BRITISH COLUMBIA'S NORTHERNMOST CITY - NEW RECORD WARMEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter in Fort St. John, BC, Canada.

Link
What To Know About February’s Satellite Temp Record

Published: March 2nd, 2016


Global warming, it isn’t just for the surface. It’s also lurking in the atmosphere and new satellite data shows the incredible heat that’s building on the planet.

February marked the biggest atmospheric temperature spike observed, with the monthly reading running 1.5°F above normal, a new record. The measurement is taken by satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies around the world. The record extends back to 1979 and is managed by scientists at the University of Alabama, Huntsville.



The satellite record has generally shown a slower rise in the planet’s temperature than surface measurements. That’s made it an oft-cited source by those who reject mainstream climate science and say global warming is no big deal. February’s big spike is being played up by some as a rebuttal of sorts to this notion.

RELATED January Smashed Another Global Temperature Record
Study: Deep Ocean Waters Trapping Vast Store of Heat
Watch All of 2015’s Weather in Super High-Def
But focusing on the spike (or using it as a battleground for that matter) misses the forest through the trees.

“All of this discussion is really about expectations for the future,” Gavin Schmidt, head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said.

El Niño is helping drive the spike — but global warming is evident in the background (and what really matters). Ah, El Niño. The climate phenomenon that has launched a thousand stories.

You can count this as story 1,001 because El Niño is one of the big drivers of all that heat in the atmosphere. Warming in the Pacific has released a ton of stored heat stashed in the ocean (heat driven in large part by global warming, by the way). Though El Niño peaked in November, there’s a lag in how long it takes all that heat to circulate in the atmosphere. This isn’t the first time this has happened, by the way.



Weekly El Niño-region ocean temperatures through the week of February 24.
Credit: NOAA

“The spike is expected: look at 1997-98 El Niño,” Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said. “So it is mostly related to the very strong El Niño that has been underway for over a year, and with an extra boost from global warming.”

Schmidt concurred, saying it’s “not really a big deal, but rather a validation of expectations that this El Niño would push the (satellite) data into record territory since there really is a trend.”

The February spike is drawing a lot of eyeballs, but this longer term trend is really what matters.

That said, satellites are also seeing blazing heat in the Arctic, similar to what surface measurements are showing. That’s certainly much more in line with climate change, which has seen the Arctic warm twice as fast as other regions of the globe.



Perhaps more importantly, satellites measure the temperature in the atmosphere above us while we spend most of our time on the surface. Then there’s the reality that humans — and most other species on the planet — don’t live in the atmosphere (though it is a fine place to visit for short periods in the confines of a plane).

That’s why what’s happening on the surface is more important — from faster rising temperatures to all the other attendant impacts of climate change like sea level rise, dwindling sea ice and the like. Scientists at NASA, NOAA and other leading institutions are still analyzing the global surface data, but it seems pretty safe to say the Earth continued its record-blazing hot streak in February.

January marked the fourth month in a row of temperatures higher than 1°C (1.8°F). Until October, the world had never passed the 1°C threshold in any month in 135 years of record keeping.

So while there’s a lot of hay being made right now about how warm our atmosphere is, the surface is the real global warming hot spot we should be focusing on.

The satellite record has a lot of uncertainty in the first place. For all the excitement about the satellite spike, the reality is that measuring temperature from space requires a lot of moving parts and is full of uncertainties.

Satellites are hundreds of miles above the surface, they drift in orbit over time and the capabilities of the different sensors and satellites used over nearly four decades of record-keeping has varied.



“I’ve always consider the satellite record the least reliable of all instrumental temperature observations because of the numerous corrections that have to be made, the assumptions involved in combining records from different satellites, etc.” Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State, said in an email.

Because of all these things, the temperature record has been revised numerous times and in most cases, the rise in the temperature trend has increased. In fact, new research published by scientists at Remote Sensing Systems, a group which manages another satellite dataset, has just made some adjustments based on the aforementioned satellite drift issue.

“The new updates look better than what was being used before, and this has the impact of increasing the trends quite substantially — underlying the importance of structural uncertainties in the satellite data that are much greater than issues in the surface data (which have a lot more independent checks),” Schmidt said.

That’s not to say the satellite measurements don’t provide some value, but it is an indication why the surface temperature data analyzed and reported by NASA, NOAA and others is viewed as the gold standard.

That gets to the bigger discussion about not just the present, but also the future. Schmidt said, “people who have focussed on finding flat trends are trying to convince themselves that those trends are predictive of future flatness. People who have focussed on the physics have expected the trends (even on the short term) to spike up again and are basing the long-term projections on their understanding of the system, not statistical cherry-picks.”

Andrea Thompson contributed reporting to this article.
2016

Rise of the Human induced AGW Forcing's Globally.

I like the new hydra better Patrap.

Looks like we'll be getting 2"-3" of snow tomorrow night. Click graph to expand.

NWS Fairbanks ‏@NWSFairbanks 5h5 hours ago
Only 2.5" of snow fell in Fairbanks between 12/1 and 2/29. This is the least snowy Dec-Feb on record. Normal Dec-Feb snowfall is 30.5".
72. bwi
Friday maybe a bad day to take one of those goofy cruise ships. Actually I think any day is a bad day to take one of those goofy cruise ships, but that's just me...

ANZ925-030845-
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON BETWEEN 100 NM AND 250 NM
OFFSHORE-
333 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING


TONIGHT
W TO NW WINDS 35 TO 45 KT...BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

THU
N TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING N LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

THU NIGHT
E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SE 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...BUILDING TO 7 TO 12 FT.

FRI
S TO SE WINDS 50 TO 60 KT...BECOMING NW 60 TO 75 KT. SEAS
11 TO 17 FT...BUILDING TO 14 TO 24 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRI NIGHT
N TO NW WINDS 60 TO 75 KT...BECOMING NW 35 TO
45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT.

SAT
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS
12 TO 20 FT.
73. bwi
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

NWS Fairbanks ‏@NWSFairbanks 5h5 hours ago
Only 2.5" of snow fell in Fairbanks between 12/1 and 2/29. This is the least snowy Dec-Feb on record. Normal Dec-Feb snowfall is 30.5".
spring march


75. bwi
A decent chance for another awesome snow ride to work on Friday morning in DC. We need to get Drak on here to give us the outlook! Will it stick?



Fridays system off the east coast
here it is in 72 hrs from now

with a sprawling system entering west



not an official forecast guidance purposes only
For California:

Let it rain (youtube)
gonna get a little wet ped some winds to go along with it too
that low in west will aid in a spring time push to the temperatures next week



not an official forecast guidance purposes only
Quoting 66. JrWeathermanFL:

You guys remember winter??

And it's bad that when I typed that I didn't think immediately about the cold...

I've seemed to have forgotten what "cold" is...

Edgar is the only winter I know..



Well, I think there has been a Johnny Winter...
Quoting 56. nymore:



What a bunch of nonsense (clickbait) this is. I am sure climate change is the main reason, if we had the same sanitary and food standards as Bangladesh the numbers in the U.S would scare you to death

Could climate change make the problem worse sure but it is hardly the biggest worry

Think Chipotle


What a bunch of nonsense. At least, you know, read the study. Considering it is a meta analysis done by very fine researchers from Emory using sound methodology, I do expect your response to be written and sent to the journal rather than this nonsensical arm chair sciencing you seem quick to engage in.
Quoting 75. bwi:

A decent chance for another awesome snow ride to work on Friday morning in DC. We need to get Drak on here to give us the outlook! Will it stick?




This event will happen overnight which will help with accumulations, especially on grassy and wooden surfaces with overnight lows projected to be in the lower 30s to upper 20s. Could see some accumulation on the roadways as well which will make the Friday morning commute dicey. Expect 1-3 inches of snow with the highest amounts to the south and east of the metro.
Quoting 80. European58:

For California:

Let it rain (youtube)


Let it Rain
Quoting 65. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



That first band won't be much for California. It's what's developing to the west, riding a 200 mph jet max, and a train of moisture extending from west of the Phillipines.
Quoting 86. PedleyCA:



Let it Rain


Found another one
Quoting 86. PedleyCA:



Let it Rain

And this one I never heard before

Neither did I know this one

Last one

Seems there's a lot of rain coming

Now I'm gonna get some sleep, goodnight.

Snow was a challenge for the Fur Rendezvous sled dog races in Anchorage on Sunday, Feb. 28, 2016.
Bill Roth / Alaska Dispatch News


Alaska Dispatch News

Clear sky34°F
Anchorage

Iditarod
Anchorage is so snow-starved it has to haul snow in by train for Iditarod start
Tegan Hanlon
February 29, 2016


How weird has Anchorage's weather been this winter?

Weird enough that an Alaska Railroad spokesman said Monday that a train will deliver seven rail cars loaded with snow to the state's largest city this week in time for the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race ceremonial start on Saturday.

“It’s no secret that warm temperatures for days on end have further eroded what little snow cover existed on the trail system here in Anchorage,” the statement said. “We are exploring our options at this time as we very well may need to shorten our Day 1 Ceremonial Start.”

Hooley did not respond to a phone call Monday seeking details.

Jeff Barney, Fur Rendezvous executive director, said the snow from Fairbanks will get spread across portions of Anchorage’s streets and will help with Fur Rondy events, like the Running of the Reindeer on Saturday.

"The railroad is saving our behinds and bringing 300 cubic yards of snow," Barney said.

Barney said it's the first time he can remember Fur Rondy organizers having snow transported from outside of Anchorage for its events. Tim Sullivan, Alaska Railroad spokesman, said the snow will come from the Fairbanks railyard, hundreds of miles away.

The seven additional railcars filled with snow will be hooked onto the regularly scheduled freight train to Anchorage, he said. Sullivan said he expects the train to arrive Thursday morning.

Barney said no money will be exchanged for the Alaska Railroad's snow delivery.

"They're doing this out of the goodness of their hearts," he said. "It's huge for us."

Warmer-than-normal temperatures aren't expected to let up this week. The National Weather Service has forecast Anchorage temperatures in the mid-30s to low-40s through Friday, dipping into the 20s at night.
As of Monday, there was no snow on the ground at the office, said Joe Wegman, weather service meteorologist. He said at least a trace of snow had stuck around since mid-January, but by now, “we’ve melted all of our snow, officially.”

Meanwhile at the Fairbanks International Airport Monday, there was about 13 inches of snow on the ground, said Don Aycock, a weather service forecaster. He said there’s typically about 21 inches of snow on the ground this time of year.

No-show snow has created problems for last two Iditarod races as well.


In 2015, race organizers moved the Iditarod restart from Willow to Fairbanks because of minimal snow coverage on rugged parts of the trail. The year before, low snow on the rough, bare trail through the Farewell Burn and treacherous Dalzell Gorge contributed to injuries that knocked some Iditarod mushers out of the race.

Race organizers in early February reported ample snow on much of the trail, though temperatures have warmed since then.

After Saturday’s ceremonial start, the teams are scheduled to leave from Willow Sunday afternoon and head toward Nome.

Contact Tegan Hanlon at thanlon@alaskadispatch.com or on Twitter
Quoting 86. PedleyCA:



Let it Rain


The rain saves us washes away the hurt inside refreshes the weary soul and puts out the fire of anger and stresses let it rain let it rain let it rain
Quoting 57. vis0:

.Got carried away was having a DELICIOUS Pizza and forgot i no longer post that stuff, bad habits hard to break, apology to moderators for the this comment.
Actually tried to only take out only the part that had my theories  so some could enjoy the zilly comments but editing would not take hold

I asked the Dominoes guy if my pizza would be very long, he said no sir, it will be very round. Then I asked why he delivered pizza , he said we make a lot of dough.

a pizza will keep ya alive that's all ya really need
Quoting 84. Naga5000:



What a bunch of nonsense. At least, you know, read the study. Considering it is a meta analysis done by very fine researchers from Emory using sound methodology, I do expect your response to be written and sent to the journal rather than thi?s nonsensical arm chair sciencing you seem quick to engage in.


Well sir than this should be happening all over globe not just Bangladesh. Why not have a study in the USA or any other modern country? Simply put correlation is not causation

FWIW since the temp rise has been noted the population has risen 3 times

Don not get me wrong I believe climate change is real but that is part of the problem. Things people like you refuse to see are the problems we have created just by living how we live regardless of climate change.

Classic example Patrap showing pics of sediment running into the lake where as if nature had its way that sediment would have went to the outlet of the river building land, flooding many areas along the way including new orleans.

We have changed the way nature runs for our own benefit, please do not get sanctimonious and try to find a scapegoat. It is all of us for our own selfish reasons.

Now go look in the mirror and realize it is you for your economic reasons or convenience
He (double toothpicks) of a hailstorm crossing central OK. Severe hail. Storm was unwarned. North of Stratford OK now, and just warned a few minutes ago. MOving toward Byng and Ada. A less severe cell following that one, along same path.

Can you say, "I got bonked on the head"?
Quoting 94. nymore:



Well sir than this should be happening all over globe not just Bangladesh. Why not have a study in the USA or any other modern country? Simply put correlation is not causation

FWIW since the temp rise has been noted the population has risen 3 times

Don not get me wrong I believe climate change is real but that is part of the problem. Things people like you refuse to see are the problems we have created just by living how we live regardless of climate change.

Classic example Patrap showing pics of sediment running into the lake where as if nature had its way that sediment would have went to the outlet of the river building land, flooding many areas along the way including new orleans.

We have changed the way nature runs for our own benefit, please do not get sanctimonious and try to find a scapegoat. It is all of us for our own selfish reasons.

Now go look in the mirror and realize it is you for your economic reasons or convenience


Moving the goalposts and with personal attacks no less. Quaint. Again, don't bother people here with grade school critiques of science, please write the journal and take it up with them. Maybe the researchers would give you the time of day. I'm sure they would love to hear your critiques. Maybe throw some insults their way too. :) Toodles.

Edit: On a side note, if you were familiar with any of the literature on E Coli you would know that temperature is a key factor in the length of time the bacteria survives. A correlation between increase and temperature and E Coli in one part of the world has no requirement to meet your demands for it to hold true in other places. There are certainly other factors at play in terms of differences between Bangladesh and the U.S. Does that make the study any less valid, of course not, or better, maybe only to those who care not for the people of Bangladesh. I would love to discuss the nuance of social science and medical sociology, but I can already tell it would be a waste of my time.
Quoting 96. Naga5000:



Moving the goalposts and with personal attacks no less. Quaint.

I never expected you to look in the mirror because that would mean you actually take have admit fault in yourself. I can freely admit i have done very well for the economy and myself by ruining the planet, am i proud of it no but it was i had to do to survive.

Fwiw if you mean moving the goalpost means playing on a different field than sure let us see how good your stats are in modern countries.
Quoting 56. nymore:

What a bunch of nonsense (clickbait) this is. I am sure climate change is the main reason, if we had the same sanitary and food standards as Bangladesh the numbers in the U.S would scare you to death

Could climate change make the problem worse sure but it is hardly the biggest worry

Think Chipotle


Every living thing, and I mean every living thing , is currently being forced to adapt to this new brave world we are entering. And the smallest things are making those changes now.

E coli is one example. Ask yourself what all those billions of tons of frozen creatures are going to be doing when they wake-up from their permafrost slumber. And their alarm clocks are ringing make no mistake.
ALL OF US. Look in the mirror. I can hardly wait for carbon emission rationing. You know, like so much allowed per person, and you can sell or trade yours if you don't use them - like they did with the butter, sugar, gas and nylon stocking coupons used for commodity rationing in WW II, only this will apply to electric and fuel use.

Those of us with small footprints will be laughing "all the way to the bank" as they used to say in L.A.
Ps. Meant to flag comment 96, not plus it. I see the comment has been revised.

'Bye now. Remember... time to smallen your carbon footprint, all youse out dere.
Quoting 97. nymore:


I never expected you to look in the mirror because that would mean you actually take have admit fault in yourself. I can freely admit i have done very well for the economy and myself by ruining the planet, am i proud of it no but it was i had to do to survive.

Fwiw if you mean moving the goalpost means playing on a different field than sure let us see how good your stats are in modern countries.


Again, why make demands that studies are only valid for modern countries. Shall we not care about the world?

Also, do not make assumptions about me or my life. I do have little appreciation that your only means of attack is personal. It shows exactly how solid the footing your argument is that you immediately resort to assumptions and personal attacks. Focus for a second, this was about your poor critique of a study and scientists you assert to know more than, remember?

Quoting 100. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. Meant to flag comment 96, not plus it. I see the comment has been revised.

'Bye now. Remember... time to smallen your carbon footprint, all youse out dere.


Aww, you really do love me.
Quoting 84. Naga5000:



What a bunch of nonsense. At least, you know, read the study. Considering it is a meta analysis done by very fine researchers from Emory using sound methodology, I do expect your response to be written and sent to the journal rather than this nonsensical arm chair sciencing you seem quick to engage in.


Now what in his long posting history would make you think he has even the remotest interest at all in reading actual research articles? :P
Quoting 101. Naga5000:



Again, why make demands that studies are only valid for modern countries. Shall we not care about the world?

Also, do not make assumptions about me or my life. I do have little appreciation that your only means of attack is personal. It shows exactly how solid the footing your argument is that you immediately resort to assumptions and personal attacks. Focus for a second, this was about your poor critique of a study and scientists you assert to know more than, remember?

What personal attack and all I asked was why not have a study done in a modern country and see if you get the same results, and excepting what we all have done and continue to do for our own reasons
It seems you have no answer and accuse me of personal attacks to deflect
Quoting 102. Naga5000:




Aww, you really do love me.


Not yet. You're not on the ignore list. That's when you know Barefoot really loves you.
107. vis0

Quoting 7. TimSoCal:



FINALLY.

I mean, what's a state gotta do to get El Nino's attention around here?

Great news for the water situation, though...

dress up like AK
Quoting 34. DCSwithunderscores:

NORMAL? WASHINGTON'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - WETTEST WINTER FOLLOWS WARMEST WINTER & HOTTEST SUMMER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record wettest winter in Seattle WA. Summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) of 2015 is the record hottest summer there. Winter of 2014-2015 is the record warmest winter there.

Link






If it hadnt been for one big storm in Aug it would have been a record dry summer as well. less than 7" fell between April-Sept yet still above average for the year...been a strange one.
Quoting 105. nymore:


What personal attack and all I asked was why not have a study done in a modern country and see if you get the same results, and excepting what we all have done and continue to do for our own reasons
It seems you have no answer and accuse me of personal attacks to deflect


No, what you said was
"What a bunch of nonsense (clickbait) this is. I am sure climate change is the main reason, if we had the same sanitary and food standards as Bangladesh the numbers in the U.S would scare you to death" before you attempted to move the goalposts.


Of course there would be differences if the meta analysis was done in the U.S., but then again why wouldn't there be considering the widely varying climate of the U.S., differences in sanitation, differences in numerous social factors, yet still none of this deserves the critique of the analysis nor the disregard for the people of Bangladesh that you have engaged in. Nor has it warranted an attack on my assumed character whatsoever. The critique itself is lazy at best and anti intellectual drivel at worst. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt.
Sometimes I have a hard time dealing with the fact that I am a co2 spewing gasshole, the feeling of hopelessness, despair and guilt can be almost debilitating. I have certainly considered many radical ideas but keep coming back to planting trees and not having children. Cant solve the problem, but trying to do my part. Fighting and arguing just seem to entrench negative viewpoints, we know there is a problem, lets try and find solutions. Just my 2 bits, please take with a graingrain of salt. Or a beer. .. .%u2026
I highly recommend the Ducati Streetfighter. Fuel efficient, fun, and under $14,000. I have one. So should you. Click picture to expand.

Quoting 68. Patrap:







Can't wait for the "It hasn't warmed since 2016!" trope to pop up once this Nino goes away.
113. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, University of Washington (Final product not any o the aforementioned official product)
AOI:: Eastern Pacific
NOTE:: DO NOT read the cloud top/Temperature colour key as official as its a blending of filtered images and could be off,  notice under they colour key clouds change colours as i'm not going 3 extra steps to correct that/ Is it a result of me getting lazy? kind of these are all hand filtered only 8 steps per image when i'd create the complex 3D-ish images that took ~10-18 steps ...can you say arthritis?)
View on YouTube 1024x800Here 628x488zilly? NOTE::
See if you can "read" the ancient Western Mexico folklore, when the spotted cat pounces onto the "beach" the harvest will multiply. (of course if Europeans read those words they'd look for an actual cat like the  Ocelot and think it was some gawdly sacrifice for rain...maybe out of body readings of the Earth caused that self-soul to "see" what looked like a spotted cat "in the clouds" and north of those clouds rain fell eventually making it down stream, but of course that is sill who would imagine clouds looking like animals, pfffT!  BTW not that Europeans where mean, wrong or dumb its just that in their culture being in cold and at times in damp caves leads to a different thought pattern / mind set to survive life versus being in the open warmer air so they place their experiences on those they meet. When they did that to areas of Northern Eurasia they usually were correct but when they placed that life style on people from Equatorial regions, specially after 500-1000 years of rouge expeditions by Europeans going out in one way trips out to  the sea and little by little influencing America's natives, the natives took in that more "sacrificial-like" characteristic since after ~3,000BC the Planet's Duodecium (word i created, if you search add "vis0") was entering the 12,000 year period of leaning towards the Physical mind...oops there i go again, when i enjoy i good pizza i get into my share my theories mood.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-15 5-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-040000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR SPRING FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION...

ALTHOUGH THE SPRING MONTHS ARE TYPICALLY THE TAIL END OF THE DRY
SEASON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS CREATED ELEVATED FLOWS ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. AN EL NINO PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE SPRING WHICH WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED RISK FOR
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH MAY. THIS WILL CREATE A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL RISK FOR RIVER FLOODING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE SPRING...WITH A HIGHER RISK FOR FLOODING DURING THE
SUMMER MONTHS AS ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS THE RAINY
SEASON DEVELOPS IN JUNE.

$$
115. vis0
Quoting 105. nymore:


What personal attack and all I asked was why not have a study done in a modern country and see if you get the same results, and excepting what we all have done and continue to do for our own reasons
It seems you have no answer and accuse me of personal attacks to deflect
Because different areas of the world have different variables (climate being one), each area will have their own aGW serious effect.
 

In a major coastal USofA city it might be that the Insurance companies raise there rates in observing scientific data showing the Ocean is rising.

In time those cities will have to move further inland,. even though their rise in e coli will be much less than in India.
 

In cities that are near lakes where a warmer ocean / atmosphere could cause a blocking of rainfall, then  those lakes that bring water to those cities could be so low people either move, if its in a country where people are poor some might die others fight for any water they can get their hands on.
 

So nymore if you lived in India and where within the areas that e coli was rising would you post that its absurd that someone posted a few months ago that Californian where desperate for water and the aGW had nothing to do with it as its JUST that California has more people living in it than in 1992.
 

Again no one has said aGW is the ONLY reason but that something not created by nature nor gawd is adding to the category of human misery and that
something aGW in being formed/raised through the human (mis)use of minerals for longer than they should have or after humans knew the dangers of it and not
only continued its use but raised its use while at times squashing other inventions or energy sources for mainly the purpose of greed.

Make money, go ahead but why not do it so less people get "hurt" and ya know what that means the customers using the safer fuels live longer and the businesses make more money, not to mention can save more in not having to create legal and publicity walls to protect their assumption that if they squelch the
science (showing those business products are damaging ones ability to live at the optimum level) the public will follow.

Look weather!
116. elioe
Wait... the article has mentioned Bangladesh, how much diarrhea cases will increase there according to the study. But the abstract doesn't mention any geographic limitations in the scope of study? Has anyone paid access to the full study, to confirm whether the study actually explores temperature-occurrence relationships in certain locations, or only worldwide? Has the author of the article made his own interpretation/extrapolation?

E. coli indeed thrives better in warmer waters. But the increase of cases may not be primarily due to that. At least in higher latitudes, more people tend to swim in lakes and rivers, when a heatwave strikes. Therefore, the possibility of an E.coli carrier dropping fecal matter into a body of water is higher, and the number of visitors to be infected is higher.

And commentator Naga5000 has little merit to accuse people of personal attacks after entry 3247 comment 159.
117. vis0

Quoting 116. elioe:

Wait... the article has mentioned Bangladesh, how much diarrhea cases will increase there according to the study. But the abstract doesn't mention any geographic limitations in the scope of study? Has anyone paid access to the full study, to confirm whether the study actually explores temperature-occurrence relationships in certain locations, or only worldwide? Has the author of the article made his own interpretation/extrapolation?

E. coli indeed thrives better in warmer waters. But the increase of cases may not be primarily due to that. At least in higher latitudes, more people tend to swim in lakes and rivers, when a heatwave strikes. Therefore, the possibility of an E.coli carrier dropping fecal matter into a body of water is higher, and the number of visitors to be infected is higher.

And commentator Naga5000 has little merit to accuse people of personal attacks after entry 3247 comment 159.


Read#115 please
Quoting 116. elioe:

Wait... the article has mentioned Bangladesh, how much diarrhea cases will increase there according to the study. But the abstract doesn't mention any geographic limitations in the scope of study? Has anyone paid access to the full study, to confirm whether the study actually explores temperature-occurrence relationships in certain locations, or only worldwide? Has the author of the article made his own interpretation/extrapolation?

E. coli indeed thrives better in warmer waters. But the increase of cases may not be primarily due to that. At least in higher latitudes, more people tend to swim in lakes and rivers, when a heatwave strikes. Therefore, the possibility of an E.coli carrier dropping fecal matter into a body of water is higher, and the number of visitors to be infected is higher.

And commentator Naga5000 has little merit to accuse people of personal attacks after entry 3247 comment 159.


You can always join my fan club. FYI, the study says they chose Bangladesh for sub analysis due to the number of studies focused on that region previously (5) providing the best data for the meta analysis.
Quoting 110. plantmoretrees:

Sometimes I have a hard time dealing with the fact that I am a co2 spewing gasshole, the feeling of hopelessness, despair and guilt can be almost debilitating. I have certainly considered many radical ideas but keep coming back to planting trees and not having children. Cant solve the problem, but trying to do my part. Fighting and arguing just seem to entrench negative viewpoints, we know there is a problem, lets try and find solutions. Just my 2 bits, please take with a graingrain of salt. Or a beer. .. .%u2026


I understand what you're saying, but I don't think anyone should avoid having children unless one personally doesn't have any desire in the first place. I mean I think some people who aren't mature and responsible should be discouraged by their peers to avoid doing so as lovingly as possible, but responsible people should be having children. Our time here on Earth is short, and the people who should have kids the most are the smart, responsible, and wise people, so that the torch can be passed down, otherwise, what will happen to future generations?

I'm in my 20's, in college, and being a meteorology major, focusing on a science passionately right now means no sign of marriage or children for now, and dating as a whole. But I'd like to someday. My parents had 2 kids including me, so my brother is my only sibling. I like the idea of 2-4 kids, though if someone responsible feels led to have more, why not?

It's not that population isn't an issue, but I think we have to address why population is an issue. There are a lot of regions of the world, where people have been living in small towns and rural communities for many generations, and the population stays pretty steady, and there is no imbalance of resources.
Yet we have other parts of the world, where population absolutely explodes, and there is massive resource inequality, hence the population issue.

Given that, I don't think I could properly do enough research in years to make proper judgment, and thus I want to be careful not to overgeneralize. With that said, I hypothesize/suspect that the massive population growth comes mainly from situations where people are depressed, stressed, and don't have wise plan/guide for their lives, and this is true for their peers as well. I think this leads to lots of unplanned births coming into broken families, and it just tends to grow and expand from there as more and more children are born unplanned into broken situations. Growing up in a low income area, there are a lot of young women my age with multiple children already, with no direction in life, while the young men are often no where to be found, and because they are also broken and have a lack of foundation in life, they are still causing more unplanned pregnancies to more women in their same state. I wish I could do something to give these types of lives hope, and I do try, but people have to believe it themselves for it to work, which isn't easy, I don't think I'd be any different in their shoes.

Again, this is way too simple of an explanation, and I want to be careful not to judge and over simplify, as a result, I realize my model my be wrong and that human life is far more complex than that. With that said, I suspect what I've discussed does give some light on a lot of the worlds over population, poverty, and lack of resources, which contributes to a poor management of land and climate by quite a bit.

Alright, I'm probably getting too off topic, lol.
Quoting 116. elioe:

...At least in higher latitudes, more people tend to swim in lakes and rivers, when a heatwave strikes. Therefore, the possibility of an E.coli carrier dropping fecal matter into a body of water is higher, and the number of visitors to be infected is higher...
So...an increase in E.coli infections may not be due to increasingly warmer waters, but may instead be caused by increasingly frequent and/or severe heatwaves driving people to seek relief in public waters where E. coli is more easily spread.

Got it.

Global warming: it's not just about record high temperatures and melting glaciers, is it?
The beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season is less than 3 months away.

With the current powerful El Nino expected to diminish or possibly linger, it will be interesting to see what happens this fall.

Will we get another active season like we did in 1998, following the strong 1997 El Nino?

Or .... will the current El Nino hang around longer, and produce a less active hurricane season like we observed in post El Nino years 1982-83 or 1992-94?

It has been over 10 years since a major hurricane has made landfall in the US, and it has been almost 8 years since Hurricane Ike slammed the Gulf coast.

Eventually, residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are going to have to deal with a major hurricane strike. Only time will tell...

Good Morning. Here the current look for Conus and the forecast; California stating to get some rain in the Northern parts. Hopefully some of that will filter further south where it is really needed in the coming weeks. The US drought monitor for the week will be issued in about 20 minutes so we can see (again) how bad they need it:



10000 without electricity in Washington State due to high winds and storm.
On the issue of children, I too did not want to bring kids into this world and one of my best friends had her first (with a wonderful husband) and when I expressed that while holding their newborn, they both said that the world is full of good and bad people and that the good people needed to have children to keep the balance (and hopefully outnumber the bad). Not as simple as that but I never forgot that comment and went on to have two wonderful daughters who are eco-friendly (oldest got a Prius as her first car) and public service orientated helping others FWTIW.
As of this morning we are back in record low for the date territory for Arctic Sea ice..
And here is the drought monitor:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor
An article on climate change 14,500 years ago:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/03/03/why-did -ancient-europeans-just-disappear-14500-years-ago. html?intcmp=hpff

And a quote from the article, "The temperature change around that time was "enormous compared to the climactic changes that are happening in our century," Posth told Live Science."

Quoting 110. plantmoretrees:

Sometimes I have a hard time dealing with the fact that I am a co2 spewing gasshole, the feeling of hopelessness, despair and guilt can be almost debilitating. I have certainly considered many radical ideas but keep coming back to planting trees and not having children. Cant solve the problem, but trying to do my part. Fighting and arguing just seem to entrench negative viewpoints, we know there is a problem, lets try and find solutions. Just my 2 bits, please take with a graingrain of salt. Or a beer. .. .%u2026
And herein lies a major issue in society today. If you have seen the movie "Idiocracy", it portrays this perfectly. The educated do not have as many kids for logical and responsible reasons, whether it is financial, environmental or whatever other influence. Meanwhile the "Poorly Educated" are pumping out more kids than they can manage to provide for. What then occurs is we end up with a society that is overall lazy and dumbed down over time. This is the root cause IMO of how we can have idiots like Trump, Clinton and Sanders as our candidates for presidency, which in turn translates into poor policy on crucial issues such as climate change and foreign relations.
My wife and myself have taken it upon ourselves to attempt to counteract this trend by having three of our own so far and we have not taken more off the table so to speak. (The real reason is the fact that she is gorgeous and I have no self control.)
In all seriousness though, self-pity is never a solution. Self-education and action is.
And the Brazilians are building a new research station on Antarctica..................Nice Looking Building:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/03/brazil-sta rts-building-snazzy-new-research-station-antarctic a


Quoting 128. Sandy82579:

An article on climate change 14,500 years ago:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/03/03/why-did -ancient-europeans-just-disappear-14500-years-ago. html?intcmp=hpff

And a quote from the article, "The temperature change around that time was "enormous compared to the climactic changes that are happening in our century," Posth told Live Science."
The Late Glacial period to which Cosimo Posth refers was indeed a time of great climatic change, as naturally occurring long-range climate cycles allowed the NH to reach a tipping point that resulted in fairly rapid temperature change. Those early populations of humans vanished, as they were unable to adapt to the quickly changing climate.

Allow me to repeat that salient point: humans vanished, as they were unable to adapt to the quickly changing climate.

This highlights what so many scientists have been saying with increasing alarm: we're ill suited to handle what we're doing to ourselves. Our entire massive civilization is based on a more or less steady climate, a climate that has allowed the creation of the large infrastructure necessary to feed and house our increasing billions.

What happens when that climate is disrupted and changed? When that intricate infrastructure is disturbed? Damaged? Destroyed?
Snow cleaned from Moscow streets could fill 3,200 Olympic-size pools
Tass, March 03, 13:47 UTC+3
Moscow was hit by the heaviest snowfall since 1936 on Wednesday night, receiving 65% of the monthly precipitation norm

New precipitation record set in Moscow
Tass, March 02, 13:38 UTC+3
According to Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, it would take several days to completely eliminate the effects of the record snowfall in the Russian capital
MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The total length of traffic jams in Moscow caused by abnormal snowfall has exceeded the distance between Moscow and Rome — 3,400 kilometers, said the press service of the traffic situation monitor operated by the Yandex Internet company.
"The total length of traffic jams reached 3,400 kilometers, which is even more than the distance between Moscow and Rome. The reason for this was heavy snowfall which continued all night," the press service said. ...

More details and pics see link above.
The March 2 update





The educated do not have as many kids for logical and responsible reasons,

studies show that the main reason "educated" couples do not have more kids reflects on the woman while being educated is a financial contributor to the household income and as such the more children reduce that income potential. A sad reflection on society in my opinion.....

and my wife and i.....together we have nine
Quoting 128. Sandy82579:

An article on climate change 14,500 years ago:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/03/03/why-did -ancient-europeans-just-disappear-14500-years-ago. html?intcmp=hpff

And a quote from the article, "The temperature change around that time was "enormous compared to the climactic changes that are happening in our century," Posth told Live Science."


And here is the actual study. The focus of course, as Nea mentioned, is that historically large climatic shifts (this previous one, natural) result in the inability for adaption. Despite your inference, this study does not change the fact that this current warming is not natural. Natural or anthropogenically forced, rapid changes mean struggles for life, including ours.
Quoting 112. TimSoCal:



Can't wait for the "It hasn't warmed since 2016!" trope to pop up once this Nino goes away.


This is likely since the baseline warming from AGW is being overwhelmed by the short spike from El NIno and records that tumble this year are likely to persist thereafter for the next few (global averages) and for a few decades (many point, station and national records). But the baseline will eventually (matter of years) put us at the same point in the early 20s without El Nino that we are at now with an intense Nino.
137. MahFL
Quoting 124. weathermanwannabe:

On the issue of children, I too did not want to bring kids into this world and one of my best friends had her first (with a wonderful husband) and when I expressed that while holding their newborn, they both said that the world is full of good and bad people and that the good people needed to have children to keep the balance (and hopefully outnumber the bad).


Plenty of good people give birth to people who turn out real bad.
Quoting 134. ricderr:

The educated do not have as many kids for logical and responsible reasons,

studies show that the main reason "educated" couples do not have more kids reflects on the woman while being educated is a financial contributor to the household income and as such the more children reduce that income potential. A sad reflection on society in my opinion.....

and my wife and i.....together we have nine


Stud...
Quoting 134. ricderr:

The educated do not have as many kids for logical and responsible reasons,

studies show that the main reason "educated" couples do not have more kids reflects on the woman while being educated is a financial contributor to the household income and as such the more children reduce that income potential. A sad reflection on society in my opinion.....

and my wife and i.....together we have nine


I'm number 9. I think I turned out pretty good.
140. bwi
Quoting 111. BaltimoreBrian:

I highly recommend the Ducati Streetfighter. Fuel efficient, fun, and under $14,000. I have one. So should you. Click picture to expand.




I highly recommend the Kona Big Rove. Zero fossil fuel, totally badass, and under $1,400. No smelly fumes, no stupid noise. I have one. So should you.
In regards to the E.coli article, I have access to it and they obtained an overall association of E.coli cases with monthly temperature using a range of different studies done in a number of cities/countries around the world (Canada, United States, Bangladesh, India, Greece, Egypt, Pakistan, Mexico, Senegal, Kenya, Brazil, Madagascar, South Africa & Australia).

They then did a sub-analysis on Bangladesh with 3 different temperature increases predicted to occur at different parts of the next century (0.8C, 1.6C & 2.1C) and found for the 0.8C that cases would increase by 794,076 (239,726 - 1,649,685).

So they were using data from multiple countries to create a model to predict increase in cases with temperature (they also did a rainfall model) and then applied it to Bangladesh.

In the discussion they said the reasonings for this could be a multitude of different ones - increased replication and survival of E.coli, increased host susceptibility at higher temperatures and a few other reasonings.

Studies like this are important at predicting the future of pathogen/parasites in a warming climate and a lot of these changes are going to affect mainly developing countries. So those saying these studies are "click bait"/"pointless"/"should be done in developed countries" really have no concept of the fact that there are billions of people living in poor conditions of no fault of their own - it was just where they were born. By understanding the evolution of parasites/pathogens as the climate warms, it becomes easier to plan for especially in regards to aid needed for those affected.

Not to mention that developed countries will be affected in the future as conditions beome warm enough to allow some nasty parasties/pathogens in via vectors, such as mosquitoes, to thrive further north/south.

Just thought I'd throw in my two cents.
Quoting 140. bwi:



I highly recommend the Kona Big Rove. Zero fossil fuel, totally badass, and under $1,400. No smelly fumes, no stupid noise. I have one. So should you.




The primary purpose of motorcycles is to put Orthopedic Surgeons' kids though college.
(the ripstiks my kids got made a contribution to that group too in the late aughts)
143. elioe
Quoting 120. Neapolitan:

So...an increase in E.coli infections may not be due to increasingly warmer waters, but may instead be caused by increasingly frequent and/or severe heatwaves driving people to seek relief in public waters where E. coli is more easily spread.

Got it.

Global warming: it's not just about record high temperatures and melting glaciers, is it?


Exactly. Global warming is a misleading term. I'd put it this way: the primary effect of increasing infrared absorptivity is to increase the need for vertical convective heat transport. That means generally more wind in barotropic environments and more precipitation. As a side-effect, temperatures rise. That increases the maximum possible amount of water vapor and... oh well... one thing leads to another.

Quoting 131. Neapolitan:

[...] Allow me to repeat that salient point: humans vanished, as they were unable to adapt to the quickly changing climate. [...]


I don't see it that way. Most likely, as climate warmed, "N" people advanced north to the habitat of "M" people. Because the skills of "N" people were more adapted to the new climate of that habitat, "M" people were outcompeted, and at least some of them migrated towards north, perhaps eventually all the way to Siberia as climate continued to warm.
Quoting 132. barbamz:

Snow cleaned from Moscow streets could fill 3,200 Olympic-size pools
Tass, March 03, 13:47 UTC+3
Moscow was hit by the heaviest snowfall since 1936 on Wednesday night, receiving 65% of the monthly precipitation norm

New precipitation record set in Moscow
Tass, March 02, 13:38 UTC+3
According to Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, it would take several days to completely eliminate the effects of the record snowfall in the Russian capital
MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The total length of traffic jams in Moscow caused by abnormal snowfall has exceeded the distance between Moscow and Rome — 3,400 kilometers, said the press service of the traffic situation monitor operated by the Yandex Internet company.
"The total length of traffic jams reached 3,400 kilometers, which is even more than the distance between Moscow and Rome. The reason for this was heavy snowfall which continued all night," the press service said. ...

More details and pics see link above.

I went to the articles to see what the amounts were, Imagine my surprise when I read 24mm. I suspect a typo but all of the figures were given as millimeters, quite a brain fade on their part.
Quoting 144. gr8lakebreeze:


I went to the articles to see what the amounts were, Imagine my surprise when I read 24mm. I suspect a typo but all of the figures were given as millimeters, quite a brain fade on their part.


So it only takes 24 cm of snow to cripple Moscow?? That's less than 10"!

I'd like to table a motion to determine a Locale,date..for a wunderground bloggers convention.

It is time we garnered some of this brain trust we have here for some civilian progress on a Global issue.







Quoting 121. Stormwatch247:

The beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season is less than 3 months away.

With the current powerful El Nino expected to diminish or possibly linger, it will be interesting to see what happens this fall.

Will we get another active season like we did in 1998, following the strong 1997 El Nino?

Or .... will the current El Nino hang around longer, and produce a less active hurricane season like we observed in post El Nino years 1982-83 or 1992-94?

It has been over 10 years since a major hurricane has made landfall in the US, and it has been almost 8 years since Hurricane Ike slammed the Gulf coast.

Eventually, residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are going to have to deal with a major hurricane strike. Only time will tell...



Although not technically still a hurricane at landfall, I think we might agree that Sandy counts as a major virtual hurricane strike.
Quoting 140. bwi:



I highly recommend the Kona Big Rove. Zero fossil fuel, totally badass, and under $1,400. No smelly fumes, no stupid noise. I have one. So should you.

And which one of these will pull my boat, or how do I carry home the groceries from the store, and how about driving in the rain down here, no thanks to either one.
Quoting 146. Patrap:

I'd like to table a motion to determine a Locale,date..for a wunderground bloggers convention.

It is time we garnered some of this brain trust we have here for some civilian progress on a Global issue.








Yes..I believe many would show up. A lot of positives could come from such an event. Finally get to meet some people after talking with them for nearly a decade...:)
Quoting 147. BayFog:


Although not technically still a hurricane at landfall, I think we might agree that Sandy counts as a major virtual hurricane strike.


It does, as with Isaac in 2012 and others since 2005. The SSS is a poor way to determine impact.


Its also a poor indicator of overall potential impact as well,..as it does NOT relate storm surge Values well at ALL.

We desperately need a new and improved impact scale to replace it.

Global Warming has even turned el Nino on it's ear .... I don't know why that should be a big surprise to anyone after all the Jetstream anomalies since 2012 .... It was obviously going to create a unpredictable el Nino and it no doubt has
Quoting 147. BayFog:


Although not technically still a hurricane at landfall, I think we might agree that Sandy counts as a major virtual hurricane strike.

I personally agree on that. Although Sandy wasn't classified as a major hurricane, i think the damage it caused would definitely fall into the range of catastrophic, or a major hurricane. I kind of think that we should soon learn to base the strength of hurricanes, and/or other tropical cyclones off of the damage they produce . Kinda like an enhanced fujita scale. We should learn to categorize storms based on the damage they produce.
Quoting 145. georgevandenberghe:

So it only takes 24 cm of snow to cripple Moscow?? That's less than 10"!


Yes, one wonders. Actually, looking up the climate of Moscow in Wikipedia it's really quite dry, especially in March, with an average precipitation this month of just 1.38inches (35mm).

At least they've got an interesting way to remove the snow. I haven't seen a device like this yet, lol.



And this guy is joking about that alleged snowmaggedon in Moscow on March 2, lol (funny video "vlog" is in English; some bad language though):


"Krikey! No way has anyone seen that coming!"

Edit: Airmass view of eastern Europe from the time of that Russian snowfall (March 2) below (btw, due to low "Zissi"; we've heard of it earlier ;-)
Quoting 146. Patrap:

I'd like to table a motion to determine a Locale,date..for a wunderground bloggers convention.

It is time we garnered some of this brain trust we have here for some civilian progress on a Global issue.









I think you mean "make a motion", not "table a motion". In parliamentary debate, to table a motion means to remove it from consideration.
Quoting 153. barbamz:



Yes, one wonders. Actually, looking up the climate of Moscow in Wikipedia it's really quite dry, especially in March, with an average rainfall this month of just 1.38inches (35mm).

At least they've got an interesting way to remove the snow. I haven't seen a device like this yet, lol.

**snipped the video**


Now that's something else, never seen a snow removal machine quite like that before. Makes me think of an insect or crab with the two front claws lol. It can't be very fast or efficient though, can it?
156. bwi
Quoting 148. NativeSun:

And which one of these will pull my boat, or how do I carry home the groceries from the store, and how about driving in the rain down here, no thanks to either one.


I can easily carry 40 pounds of groceries in two oversized waterproof panniers (plus lots more if I attach my trailer), and rain isn't a problem with disc brakes and 45mm Big Apple tires. The Big Rove is essentially a high-performance cargo bike, suitable for any weather and ideal for evading zombies. Looking forward to tomorrow's snow in DC!

Bike riding everywhere isn't carbon zero, because you're gonna eat more, take more showers, and do more laundry! Fewer trips to the doctor and pharmacy, though, for guys my age. At least if you don't crash. I logged over 8.5k miles last year and over 9k the prior two commuting and cargoing around DC. I think the mileage on our car has only gone up by three or four thousand over the last 5 years!
IRELAND'S CAPITOL - NEW RECORD WETTEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record wettest winter at the Dublin airport. Dublin is Ireland's capitol and most populous city.

Link
Quoting 154. ACSeattle:


I think you mean "make a motion", not "table a motion". In parliamentary debate, to table a motion means to remove it from consideration.


Well, sorry for that as I have TBI..and those errors come up.

Thanx.

Quoting 148. NativeSun:

And which one of these will pull my boat, or how do I carry home the groceries from the store, and how about driving in the rain down here, no thanks to either one.
I go grocery shopping on my motorcycle all the time, and have done it on my commuter bicycle many times. It's a non-lazy way of life, that most simply don't want or have to handle (yet). As for the rain, I stay drier in my rain suit on my motorcycle, than most drivers do running into the office from the parking lot. And no, ia am not calling anyone a wimp. ;)

I just upgraded to a Yamaha FJ-09 BTW (MT-09 Tracer in Europe). 0 to 60 in 3 seconds, AND almost 50 MPG!
160. vis0
POSTING THIS NOW as soon i expect a new blogbyte as to 2 TOP WEATHER EVENTS maybe ONE BOG with a right side for Dr. MASTERS on Atmospheric ... and a Left half for Mr. Henson on the East Coast LOW.
 
 
If i may bring in a long range perspective.
 
If one looks at the last few "fast" (for nature) climate changes, its been leaning towards the cooler/colder changes.
This leaning toward the coooler/colder changes allows for a few things that are beneficial to the creatures that survive them (aka Humans and others around you...ahhh! a roach on my wall...squishhhhhhhhh...specially those well adapted insects some need to fertilize what we --devour-- eat.)
 
When it gets suddenly cooler/colder NATURALLY, its as if Nature is fresh sealing whatever is frozen. Think of it as a method to preserve and eventually serve...take that Tupperware.
 
On the other hand ...
 
ahhh another roach...spahhh-lattt!, OUCH!!! it was just a birthmark
 
...when the planet warms / heats up "fast" NATURALLY, processes via physics changes its molecular structure and the extreme of that change its POOF time for whatever is molecularly changing, ...changing as in death.
 
Seem like a silly comparison?
 
Go place a drum stick in your grocers' freezer, ...oh... better in your freezer and leave it there for 3 years.
(College students that are about to graduate just open that freezer your parents got you and behind the 32 cans of beer (including 10 empty ones) see that drumstick you bought 3 years ago take it out. (older members stop getting nostalgic)
 
Notice 3 years later its still a drumstick, DON'T EAT IT!!!! GUYS! (and ncstorm)
 
Now mail a drumstick to huruicanehunterjoe (with the exceptions of  washi115*1*, patrap*1*).
HHjoe place that drumstick in the dessert under a cage so Sunshine "hits" it but no vulture or Taz*2* takes it.
 
After just 1 year that drum stick will have lost most of its features, be it eaten by insects or by bacterial interactions.
IF the bone stays intact it becomes petrified and there is very low chance of bringing anything from it back to life.
 
This is why a theory of mine as to "time~Twist"
 
(stop doing the twist Grothar...SEE! you pulled a muscle you didn't even now you still had)
 
Time~Twisting is what physics calls in SciFic or SciFac "time-traveling" and a theory of mine (1970s...i'm old) states one has to use sieves via absolute zero (ABS0 or ABS 0)  to do so...don't forget the ethereal light (soul-spirit) goes ahead of the self till science discovers what i call Galacsics.  
That means if science wants to send food from USofA to starving children in a flash (i.e. NYc to St. Louis...too soon), make sure the food is frozen with its "invisible" DNA "LIFE LIGHT" intact as to its temporary quantum form ...what not discovered yet.
HEY get to work!,  Einstein's LAB in Vienna*3* work on sending molecules of FRESH (dry iced then towards ABS 0) veggies ...oh well.  
Meat lovers don't be sad one can send meat, its just like sending a human or cow but more complex in restructuring that being...or..pre-burger)
 
...
 
 
Lets see what should i title this comment???
"Nut Nutty Nuttier" or Maybe "Survival of the Froze-nest" (the Human tale of why Neanderthal was needed or why we need Polar regions)
 
 
 
---------------feetnotes-----------------
*1* These members are notorious for creating or knowing where to get DEEEElicious food, so any food they'd  mail would be consumed by the post master general / mail inspectors and food never arrives to destination.
 
*2*(ALL people used in this comment that begin with the letter "T" & end with the letter "Z" are FACTIONAL and no meanness was meant by my use of those bots names.)
 
*3* BEFORE YOU READ THE FOLLOWING i AM NOT SAYING PEOPLE COPIED MY THEORIES just stating something i wrote in the past and sharing those crazy ideas and weird enough when the theory was tried (IN A MORE COMPLEX MANNER THAN I COULD EVER DO) it worked, again i zuck at physics (understatement) but many breakthroughs in science begin with an idea.  If you hear a child with crazy ideas tell them write all those crazy ideas down FIRST (this is so the new ideas are not destroyed by learning the boundaries pf physics taught in schools. Then when its time for college learn what is known as to the sciences.  Once you learn the "known" go back refresh the mind with your "out of this world" ideas you had as a child and blend it / test it as to the crazy theories guess what odds are something "new" will be discovered.
 
EXAMPLE as to feetnote 3:: Back in the 1980s i sent to 3 sites in Europe including what i thought was that Vienna Labs address how to use the .666 to .333 theory to transfer characteristics of any physically un-bridged light to another place without the ability for that lights characteristics to go to that "place" by the means of physics only.  A few years or decade later that was done, look at their equation it uses A B C as in 2:1 or .666 to .333. NOT SAYING THEY USED MY THEORY heck they don't even know me but but maybe someone read the letter joked 'bout it being crazy yet in the sub-thoughts it entered their equations.  So i place that frozen veggies experiment in your thoughts now go buy the Green Giants frozen peas.  Now i blew it as after my BS degree i left college and never took any other meaningful school courses - hung out with friends in their classes -.  In not learning more of the basics SPECIALLY IN COMMUNICATING as in knowing correct grammar i lowered my opportunity to share my crazy theories as in not being able to communicate my theories in the basic form of the 3 languages i know....5 languages if one counts curse words)
Proof to the above? On 2 public accces programs in NYc "The Grube Tube" & "The Vole Show" i was (loosly speaking) a  "cameraman", more like Frank Nastasi to Soupy Sales in that i tried to keep the "atmosphere" fun when hosts had difficult days. If you watch those shows (some on the webnet) and you hear the voice of a Nuyourican trying to say things in English but with the fast tongue of a Spanish person therefore hard to understand, its me. A few times (okay many dozens to hundreds) i'd yell out 2:1, or .666 to .333 and add theories as the quantifying of light to those numbers, i'm sure Watson's (FREE PLUG) ability to read hard to understand languages will be able to decipher my words into Hieroglyphics which THEN will be easier to figure out.
 
 
POSTING THIS NOW as soon i expect a new blogbyte as to 2 TOP WEATHER EVENTS maybe ONE BOG with a right side for Dr. MASTERS on Atmospheric ... and a Left half for Mr. Henson on the East Coast LOW.
 
LETS OBSERVE WEATHER ITS FUN WHEN DONE WITH RESPECT TO NATURE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST THU MAR 03 2016

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
MS...AL...GA...AND FL...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...WIND
DAMAGE...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFIES AN UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL MS. THE AIR
MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE DRY/STABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY TRANSPORT 40S/50S
DEWPOINTS INTO MS/AL BY THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING AT LEAST MARGINAL
SURFACE-BASED CAPE.

MULTIPLE RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT...DESPITE MARGINAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST
MS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...PROMOTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY PARAMETERS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A GREATER THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE AND AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS POSSIBLE AT 20Z.

..HART/COHEN.. 03/03/2016

stay alert thru this evening along the gulf coast states..stay safe folks.
163. vis0
Quoting 148. NativeSun:

And which one of these will pull my boat, or how do I carry home the groceries from the
store, and how about driving in the rain down here, no thanks to either  one.

Quoting 156. bwi:



I
can easily carry 40 pounds of groceries in two oversized waterproof
panniers (plus lots more if I attach my trailer), and rain isn't a
problem with disc brakes and 45mm Big Apple tires. The Big Rove is
essentially a high-performance cargo bike, suitable for any weather and
ideal for evading zombies. Looking forward to tomorrow's snow in DC!

Bike
riding everywhere isn't carbon zero, because you're gonna eat more,
take more showers, and do more laundry! Fewer trips to the doctor and
pharmacy, though, for guys my age. At least if you don't crash. I logged
over 8.5k miles last year and over 9k the prior two commuting and
cargoing around DC. I think the mileage on our car has only gone up by
three or four thousand over the last 5 years!
(my reply is as to Quoting 148. NativeSun)
You
answered my thought as to why it seems you are not as concerned as to
the Oceans rising (some places later but it'll catchup once spongy Earth
is over-saturated WBTW equal more mildew or mold which to me is what
will kill humans, study how mold can enter the brain quietly and slowly
kill and there will never be an inoculation (due to molds
characteristics)  only prevention as in stop what's causing the Oceans
to rise.
Back to the boat.
So you enjoy the boat (good thing lets
hope someone invents a cleaner engine that js power cause boating is
fun...same foe bIkes).  No wonder you are less concerned if your area
floods, you'll just take the boat over the flooded roads to....uhhh
oops...market is underwater and moved to higher grounds, which adds more
costs to food prices as trucks delivering food use more fuel going
uphill to that store, yeah save money going down hill but truck is empty
by then....not to mention costs of growing in drier land as in pumping
water out, rise (unless all you eat is rice) Harsh swings in weather
also add to the prices as opposed to a more stable weather Earth had a
few decades ago when SURE we had severe 1 in 250 year weather events
every 125 to 250 years not 3 per decade.  MORAL:: Better to flow with
nature than to push it.
IOWA - NEW RECORD WETTEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record wettest winter in Iowa. The previous record holder was winter of 1914-1915.

Link
Quoting 156. bwi:



I can easily carry 40 pounds of groceries in two oversized waterproof panniers (plus lots more if I attach my trailer), and rain isn't a problem with disc brakes and 45mm Big Apple tires. The Big Rove is essentially a high-performance cargo bike, suitable for any weather and ideal for evading zombies. Looking forward to tomorrow's snow in DC!

Bike riding everywhere isn't carbon zero, because you're gonna eat more, take more showers, and do more laundry! Fewer trips to the doctor and pharmacy, though, for guys my age. At least if you don't crash. I logged over 8.5k miles last year and over 9k the prior two commuting and cargoing around DC. I think the mileage on our car has only gone up by three or four thousand over the last 5 years!


indeed. a bike trailer can haul a lot. groceries, kids.

can't pull a boat tho, but i don't know many people who haul their boat every day to work and the grocery store.
What To Know About February’s Satellite Temp Record

Published: March 2nd, 2016


Global warming, it isn’t just for the surface. It’s also lurking in the atmosphere and new satellite data shows the incredible heat that’s building on the planet.

February marked the biggest atmospheric temperature spike observed, with the monthly reading running 1.5°F above normal, a new record. The measurement is taken by satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies around the world. The record extends back to 1979 and is managed by scientists at the University of Alabama, Huntsville.



The satellite record has generally shown a slower rise in the planet’s temperature than surface measurements. That’s made it an oft-cited source by those who reject mainstream climate science and say global warming is no big deal. February’s big spike is being played up by some as a rebuttal of sorts to this notion.

RELATED January Smashed Another Global Temperature Record
Study: Deep Ocean Waters Trapping Vast Store of Heat
Watch All of 2015’s Weather in Super High-Def
But focusing on the spike (or using it as a battleground for that matter) misses the forest through the trees.

“All of this discussion is really about expectations for the future,” Gavin Schmidt, head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said.

El Niño is helping drive the spike — but global warming is evident in the background (and what really matters). Ah, El Niño. The climate phenomenon that has launched a thousand stories.

You can count this as story 1,001 because El Niño is one of the big drivers of all that heat in the atmosphere. Warming in the Pacific has released a ton of stored heat stashed in the ocean (heat driven in large part by global warming, by the way). Though El Niño peaked in November, there’s a lag in how long it takes all that heat to circulate in the atmosphere. This isn’t the first time this has happened, by the way.



Weekly El Niño-region ocean temperatures through the week of February 24.
Credit: NOAA

“The spike is expected: look at 1997-98 El Niño,” Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said. “So it is mostly related to the very strong El Niño that has been underway for over a year, and with an extra boost from global warming.”

Schmidt concurred, saying it’s “not really a big deal, but rather a validation of expectations that this El Niño would push the (satellite) data into record territory since there really is a trend.”

The February spike is drawing a lot of eyeballs, but this longer term trend is really what matters.

That said, satellites are also seeing blazing heat in the Arctic, similar to what surface measurements are showing. That’s certainly much more in line with climate change, which has seen the Arctic warm twice as fast as other regions of the globe.



Perhaps more importantly, satellites measure the temperature in the atmosphere above us while we spend most of our time on the surface. Then there’s the reality that humans — and most other species on the planet — don’t live in the atmosphere (though it is a fine place to visit for short periods in the confines of a plane).

That’s why what’s happening on the surface is more important — from faster rising temperatures to all the other attendant impacts of climate change like sea level rise, dwindling sea ice and the like. Scientists at NASA, NOAA and other leading institutions are still analyzing the global surface data, but it seems pretty safe to say the Earth continued its record-blazing hot streak in February.

January marked the fourth month in a row of temperatures higher than 1°C (1.8°F). Until October, the world had never passed the 1°C threshold in any month in 135 years of record keeping.

So while there’s a lot of hay being made right now about how warm our atmosphere is, the surface is the real global warming hot spot we should be focusing on.

The satellite record has a lot of uncertainty in the first place. For all the excitement about the satellite spike, the reality is that measuring temperature from space requires a lot of moving parts and is full of uncertainties.

Satellites are hundreds of miles above the surface, they drift in orbit over time and the capabilities of the different sensors and satellites used over nearly four decades of record-keeping has varied.



“I’ve always consider the satellite record the least reliable of all instrumental temperature observations because of the numerous corrections that have to be made, the assumptions involved in combining records from different satellites, etc.” Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State, said in an email.

Because of all these things, the temperature record has been revised numerous times and in most cases, the rise in the temperature trend has increased. In fact, new research published by scientists at Remote Sensing Systems, a group which manages another satellite dataset, has just made some adjustments based on the aforementioned satellite drift issue.

“The new updates look better than what was being used before, and this has the impact of increasing the trends quite substantially — underlying the importance of structural uncertainties in the satellite data that are much greater than issues in the surface data (which have a lot more independent checks),” Schmidt said.

That’s not to say the satellite measurements don’t provide some value, but it is an indication why the surface temperature data analyzed and reported by NASA, NOAA and others is viewed as the gold standard.

That gets to the bigger discussion about not just the present, but also the future. Schmidt said, “people who have focussed on finding flat trends are trying to convince themselves that those trends are predictive of future flatness. People who have focussed on the physics have expected the trends (even on the short term) to spike up again and are basing the long-term projections on their understanding of the system, not statistical cherry-picks.”

Andrea Thompson contributed reporting to this article.
[ATMOSPHERIC RIVER enters, stage left]
166. Patrap
1:53 PM EST on March 03, 2016

And that dogged warm pool off the NE US coast (where the Gulf Stream traverses) keeps showing up next to the cold pool off of Greenland (where the ice sheet is melting).
Quoting 156. bwi:



I can easily carry 40 pounds of groceries in two oversized waterproof panniers (plus lots more if I attach my trailer), and rain isn't a problem with disc brakes and 45mm Big Apple tires. The Big Rove is essentially a high-performance cargo bike, suitable for any weather and ideal for evading zombies. Looking forward to tomorrow's snow in DC!

Bike riding everywhere isn't carbon zero, because you're gonna eat more, take more showers, and do more laundry! Fewer trips to the doctor and pharmacy, though, for guys my age. At least if you don't crash. I logged over 8.5k miles last year and over 9k the prior two commuting and cargoing around DC. I think the mileage on our car has only gone up by three or four thousand over the last 5 years!


Bikes also work very well in snow up to about 6" where they bog down. At PSU I rode to school almost every day and the only weather that stopped me was more than 2" of ice pellets (like riding through thick mud.. very hard)
or clear ice (for obvious reasons). But bikes get great traction in snow.
170. vis0
Watching to see how much of a clothing change the LOW digging ESE (USofA) does.

Will it change its moisture latent shirt for a customized El Nino  rich thick luxurious cotton moisture filled robe?(swath of clouds) ...lets watch

Not much change here(Riverside Co. long thin county near the bottom). Some improvement on the eastern edges.
I guess the NWS is saying the possibility of rain exists for Sun/Mon time frame for Soo Cal.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
851 AM PST THU MAR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
FROM TIME TO TIME. A COUPLE OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING FURTHER
COOLING...INCREASING CLOUDS...STRONG MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
WINDS...GUSTY WINDS IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HEAVY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. LIKELY DRIER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

Meanwhile, some scattered showers in Nor Cal



Hope it all comes together and we have a couple very wet weeks of rain and snow in Nor Cal, at the same time throwing us a few bones in Soo Cal.
173. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, University of Washington (Final product not any of the aforementioned's official product)
AOI:: Eastern Pacific
NOTE1:: 3 sec. delay at VID start so one can try to read the overlay text.
NOTE2:: DO NOT read the cloud top/Temperature colour key as official.  Images you see are a blending of filtered images and could be off.  Notice under the colour key how clouds passing under the colour change the key colours. Therefore unreliable for serious record keeping, but okay to see whats coming...duck!, yer ponds will be filling up.
NOTE3:: Cog pointed out in VID does seem to be attracting the Tropical moisture in the last frame, lets see how/if it (mini cog) affects the bigger LOW.

View on YouTube 1024x800WYS(WhatYouSee) 628x488
Quoting 151. Longjohn119:

Global Warming has even turned el Nino on it's ear .... I don't know why that should be a big surprise to anyone after all the Jetstream anomalies since 2012 .... It was obviously going to create a unpredictable el Nino and it no doubt has
Not really, just like the is no proof climate change has effected Tropical Cyclones, except for a theory or two, but still no actual facts, their is no proof climate change has effected the ENSO State either.
Quoting 152. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I personally agree on that. Although Sandy wasn't classified as a major hurricane, i think the damage it caused would definitely fall into the range of catastrophic, or a major hurricane. I kind of think that we should soon learn to base the strength of hurricanes, and/or other tropical cyclones off of the damage they produce . Kinda like an enhanced fujita scale. We should learn to categorize storms based on the damage they produce.
Quoting 152. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I personally agree on that. Although Sandy wasn't classified as a major hurricane, i think the damage it caused would definitely fall into the range of catastrophic, or a major hurricane. I kind of think that we should soon learn to base the strength of hurricanes, and/or other tropical cyclones off of the damage they produce . Kinda like an enhanced fujita scale. We should learn to categorize storms based on the damage they produce.
The damage Sandy caused in the Northeast, was nothing like what a major hurricane will due their. when one actually hits their. One day they will get another cat 3 or higher and you will see what a major hurricane can actually due to the Northeast.
Quoting 156. bwi:



I can easily carry 40 pounds of groceries in two oversized waterproof panniers (plus lots more if I attach my trailer), and rain isn't a problem with disc brakes and 45mm Big Apple tires. The Big Rove is essentially a high-performance cargo bike, suitable for any weather and ideal for evading zombies. Looking forward to tomorrow's snow in DC!

Bike riding everywhere isn't carbon zero, because you're gonna eat more, take more showers, and do more laundry! Fewer trips to the doctor and pharmacy, though, for guys my age. At least if you don't crash. I logged over 8.5k miles last year and over 9k the prior two commuting and cargoing around DC. I think the mileage on our car has only gone up by three or four thousand over the last 5 years!
Due they make one for towing boats?
Quoting 165. schwankmoe:



indeed. a bike trailer can haul a lot. groceries, kids.

can't pull a boat tho, but i don't know many people who haul their boat every day to work and the grocery store.
True, not many people tow their boat everyday, but I do tow it once or twice a week to the ramp, to go and have fun, and catch a fish or two for dinner. I do ride a bike though for fun every now and then.
Pedal bikes or motorcycles.... just give me a Vespa:) Now that would be nice. My only concern would be that it would be stolen in a heartbeat. Not a whole lot of faith in the human race these days.
Quoting 174. NativeSun:

Not really, just like the is no proof climate change has effected Tropical Cyclones, except for a theory or two, but still no actual facts, their is no proof climate change has effected the ENSO State either.


Evidence please. This is now twice you have repeated this falsehood just this week. I corrected you before with links to the articles, which you ignore, like always.

Regarding ENSO, would you please explain how the absolute value of the SST keeps rising. Nino and Nina are calculated as anomalies, however, the baseline used keeps increasing. Why do you think that is? In fact the warming has been so problematic in baseline calculations, new methods on developing baselines are being created:

"Due to a significant warming trend in the Nio-3.4 region since 1950, El Nio and La Nia episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period." Link
Atmospheric CO2

February 2016

404.16

www.co2.earth


Quoting 174. NativeSun:
Not really, just like the is no proof climate change has effected Tropical Cyclones, except for a theory or two, but still no actual facts, their is no proof climate change has effected the ENSO State either.
Such a sentence indicates that you are utterly clueless about science and the way it works. You need to understand a few basic concepts before you can participate in an intelligent discussion of such things without looking foolish. I take it that unlike many regulars here, you have no background in science, climate or meteorology, so you have to be careful about not falling into a Dunning-Kruger trap.

1. Science does not base its work on providing "proof" - that is the domain of mathematics and philosophy.

2. Science is based on evidence, and there is good evidence that AGW/CC is significantly affecting weather around the globe, including tropical cyclones. Such evidence is easily found with Google and Google Scholar searching. Knowledge of such evidence is also provided for us by reading the weather and climate blog entries right here at WU, as well as the reading the words of the many commenters here who are actually educated and knowledgeable about weather, climate, and science in general.

3. ENSO "state" is not as important as ENSO "dynamics" - which are not uniform and consistent from event to event, even when ENSO strength is similar. ENSO dynamics are incredibly complex. However, even though we know that there is much more "heat" in the world's oceans for fueling this El Nino than for previous strong ones, teasing out the specific effects of AGW/CC from normal variation is a formidable task. I'm sure that Dr. Masters and his colleagues will be addressing that issue many times over the next couple of years in their blog entries.

Are you aware that, based on basic meteorology and thermodynamics, the heat of a one degree Celsius rise in global temps increases means that there is about 7% more moisture in the atmospheric? And that a warmer, wetter atmosphere means a more energetic atmosphere? Once you understand these basic principles, You can understand the concern about current and future climate and weather changes that worry scientists.

If you are actually interested in learning more about weather and climate change, here is a LINK to help you get started.
From Patrap's link below:

Atmospheric CO2:
  • February 2016: 404.16 ppm
  • February 2015: 400.26 ppm
  • Year-on-year increase: 3.9 ppm
Also, new daily average record was recorded on 3/2/2016: 406.46 ppm.  This was an increase of 5.48 ppm from the same day last year (3/2/2015: 400.98 ppm).Faster & faster.
GFS and Euro models still show development of something tropical in the central Atlantic, if this gets a name, it would be named Bonnie.


EURO Model

GFS Model
Quoting 179. Naga5000:


Evidence please. This is now twice you have repeated this falsehood just this week. I corrected you before with links to the articles, which you ignore, like always.

Regarding ENSO, would you please explain how the absolute value of the SST keeps rising. Nino and Nina are calculated as anomalies, however, the baseline used keeps increasing. Why do you think that is? In fact the warming has been so problematic in baseline calculations, new methods on developing baselines are being created:

"Due to a significant warming trend in the Nino-3.4 region since 1950, El Nino and La Nina episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period." Link

As you say, understanding and factoring the baseline in heat content is a key component. Not only in cumulative content but in how the differences in hot to cold regions change relative to each other. For example, increases in El Nino regions have a very different effect when the regions outside of El Nino also increase. Of course this is complicated stuff that has a profound effect on weather patterns. For certain comparisons are very different now given that 50% of ocean heating, of the past 150 years, occurred in the last 18 years!


The Roof is On Fire - Looks like February of 2016 Was 1.5 to 1.7 C Above 1880s Averages
186. vis0
clearing throat warming vocals

mee mee mee mee

"This black bug bled blue-black blood."(www.spiritsound.com/twisters)

Just practicing for 2016's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th.............. TS.
Quoting 186. vis0:

clearing throat warming vocals

mee mee mee mee

"This black bug bled blue-black blood."(www.spiritsound.com/twisters)

Just practicing for 2016's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th.............. TS.


Lovin your comedic, poetic, and meteorological wit. Please keep channeling vis0!
I used to love the sound of riding my bike in snow. The muffled hum and the pellets bouncing off your jacket.

Quoting 169. georgevandenberghe:



Bikes also work very well in snow up to about 6" where they bog down. At PSU I rode to school almost every day and the only weather that stopped me was more than 2" of ice pellets (like riding through thick mud.. very hard)
or clear ice (for obvious reasons). But bikes get great traction in snow.

Everyone have a safe weather evening and please be careful driving to work or school in the am tomorrow due to rain and snow (particularly in the NE). See Yall in the am.


National Weather Outlook
191. Tcwx2
Didn't expect any severe storms but not appears likley for possibly many severe t-storms approaching into my area.
Xulonn, was wondering as we approach equal day/night hours, what is the +/- in summer/winter @ 8.5? I'm guessing about an hour or so?

Cloudy and cool in S C IL this afternoon, about 40 for high, just under 30". Had some light rain earlier. 50's & 60's in forecast after mid 40s tomorrow, but after weekend, only about one 24 hr period w/out a chance of rain. Guess some of that Pac moisture combines w/ Gulf, but if it's warmer, don't really care. Expect at least one more snow though.
Quoting 182. Xulonn:

Such a sentence indicates that you are utterly clueless about science and the way it works...


He/she doesn't have clue and clearly has no interest nor cares about science. Ignorance driven by ideology, willful ignorance, call it whatever you want but the end product is the same. People like this really don't know how silly (and that's being kind) they sound to people that actually have a background or even a passing interest in the subject.
This sounds increasingly worrisome:
Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1m people
Iraqis who built dam say structure is increasingly precarious and describe government response as "ridiculous"
The Guardian, Julian Borger World affairs editor, Wednesday 2 March 2016 07.00 GMT
Iraqi engineers involved in building the Mosul dam 30 years ago have warned that the risk of its imminent collapse and the consequent death toll could be even worse than reported.
They pointed out that pressure on the dam's compromised structure was building up rapidly as winter snows melted and more water flowed into the reservoir, bringing it up to its maximum capacity, while the sluice gates normally used to relieve that pressure were jammed shut.
The Iraqi engineers also said the failure to replace machinery or assemble a full workforce more than a year after Islamic State temporarily held the dam means that the chasms in the porous rock under the dam were getting bigger and more dangerous every day. ...

Whole article see link above.


Mosul reservoir and dam (pic wiki).
I need some heavy rain

For some reason my account on WU does not want to work on my iPad safari browser
First off it didn't post comments I had written
It didn't show my user name above the comment text box
It didn't show me the correct thing in user setting button on top right corner
I changed the password in case someone did get in that worked but I can't sign out of the account
I send a mail to wunderblogAdmin but it didn't send

Anyway I'm using my google chrome on my iPad but this won't work for me the Safari WU account problem needs to get fixed
Barbamz - That sounds really bad regarding that dam. That badbush dam needs to be completed as soon as possible, and then the mosul dam repaired.

WKC - For a little while yesterday chrome as doing the same thing... But it's working today. Hopefully that happens for you too.
You can discard last
It seems to be working now
Don't know what happened
Can someone please respond to me I want to make sure that my comment are indeed making it through
Quoting 196. Dakster:

Barbamz - That sounds really bad regarding that dam. That badbush dam needs to be completed as soon as possible, and then the mosul dam repaired.

WKC - For a little while yesterday chrome as doing the same thing... But it's working today. Hopefully that happens for you too.


Thanks yeah seems to be working and good to see that my comments are indeed getting through
Quoting 150. Patrap:



It does, as with Isaac in 2012 and others since 2005. The SSS is a poor way to determine impact.


Its also a poor indicator of overall potential impact as well,..as it does NOT relate storm surge Values well at ALL.

We desperately need a new and improved impact scale to replace it.




Yeah. It's kind of weird how a 50 mph storm (TS Erika) can be a lot worse than a 215 mph storm (Patricia).
Quoting 195. wunderkidcayman:

I need some heavy rain

For some reason my account on WU does not want to work on my iPad safari browser
First off it didn't post comments I had written
It didn't show my user name above the comment text box
It didn't show me the correct thing in user setting button on top right corner
I changed the password in case someone did get in that worked but I can't sign out of the account
I send a mail to wunderblogAdmin but it didn't send

Anyway I'm using my google chrome on my iPad but this won't work for me the Safari WU account problem needs to get fixed



What kind of iPad do you have I have iPad Air 2 but I all so soon will have iPad pro from AT&T my pro will be my main computer but using my air 2 in tell my pro comes and I can't wait for my pro too come
Taz - Think it's time to upgrade my 1st gen Ipad? That's all I got for ipads. I do have an Android tablet though... It does run the wunderground app fine though.

Be aware Tcwx2, we had several small nados in Dothan last week... still cleaning up.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
February 2016 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index at its lowest February value on record (since 1950).
Quoting 198. wunderkidcayman:

Can someone please respond to me I want to make sure that my comment are indeed making it through


Nope, can't read them👍👍
Quoting 192. dabirds:
Xulonn, was wondering as we approach equal day/night hours, what is the +/- in summer/winter @ 8.5? I'm guessing about an hour or so?
Less than that - not much more than 1/2 hour. I moved here four years ago, and don't really notice the day length change over the year.

Just for fun, I calculated it with the NOAA website sunrise/sunset tool, and it gave me a spread of sunrise/sunset 6:40am/6:17pm for the winter solstice, and 6:13am/6.51pm for the summer solstice.

And speaking of sunsets, here's the big version of the photo I use for my avatar. I shot it over the south shoulder of Volcan Baru, an inactive volcano, and at 11,400" elevation, the tallest mountain in Panama. I live on it's eastern slopes.

Quoting 140. bwi:

I highly recommend the Kona Big Rove. Zero fossil fuel, totally badass, and under $1,400. No smelly fumes, no stupid noise. I have one. So should you.



bwi, what a wonderful, superior response! :) I do have a Trek bike, which I ride a lot, but sometimes I love roaring on my Ducati too. Is your snow sticking yet?

GFS not quite as bullish about bringing heavy rain/strong to severe storms into the Houston Metro as you see above.

Unfortunately......




Well, at least it's put off till March 19.

OR:

Am I just seeing what I want to see?
A response would be much appreciated.
Here's GFS for those of you who missed it:

Quoting 192. dabirds:

Xulonn, was wondering as we approach equal day/night hours, what is the /- in summer/winter @ 8.5? I'm guessing about an hour or so?

Cloudy and cool in S C IL this afternoon, about 40 for high, just under 30". Had some light rain earlier. 50's & 60's in forecast after mid 40s tomorrow, but after weekend, only about one 24 hr period w/out a chance of rain. Guess some of that Pac moisture combines w/ Gulf, but if it's warmer, don't really care. Expect at least one more snow though.
At latitude 8.5 the difference between the longest and shortest days of the year is 59 minutes.

77.2F here today, normal 69/45 waiting for the wetness.....

Long fetch of moisture feeding into a merged jet headed for the California coast this weekend.
Quoting 212. BayFog:


Long fetch of moisture feeding into a merged jet headed for the California coast this weekend.

Bring it.....
Quoting 209. pureet1948:

Here's GFS for those of you who missed it:




What am I seeing?
I think we're gonna need a bigger graph. So much for that "pause". Smh...


Quoting 214. pureet1948:



What am I seeing?


Nothing
Quoting 167. TimSoCal:

[ATMOSPHERIC RIVER enters, stage left]


It would be nice to see a confluence with another feeder from near Hawaii or off Mexico.
Eric, I'm surprised the deviation from normal increased so much in February. El Niño hasn't been increasing in strength.



As far as flooding rains go, I'd say Arkansas is more in that danger than SE Texas, if this rain accumulation model is anything to go by.
Like a lot of phenoms in climate, there's usually an atmospheric reaction lag to El Nino SST conditions.
Quoting 216. justmehouston:



Nothing



Well, it sure seems to be something. This storm system is making our local experts very, VERY nervous. Look at this from Eric Berger's Houston WX blog:

NEXT WEEK

Beginning Monday we’ll see a lot more moisture flowing in off the Gulf of Mexico, which should increase clouds. A slight chance of rain on Monday will give way to better chances on Tuesday and then for much of the rest of next week. It’s still too early to say how much rain, but I think 1 to 2 inches are likely, with some areas seeing more than that. Potentially several inches more. We’ll have to keep an eye on this pattern as it turns much more wet and perhaps unsettled.

No kidding. They're convinced we're going to have the worst storm system to drift over SE Texas since the Memorial Day floods:


THE DEEPENING OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AROUND THE BAJA TO MAKE FOR AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED
MODELS NOT BACKING OFF ON THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER THE TWIST
WITH THESE RUNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY JOG/RETROGRADE
OF THIS LOW AROUND MID WEEK. ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SLOWER TIMING
OF SAID SYSTEM...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS WITH THE LONG RANGE.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A WIDE OPEN GULF AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET
ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA). THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM(S) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF WILL HOPEFULLY BE SORTED OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. 41

Make of this what you will and call me in the morning.





Front pulled up stationary over the central Bay Area this afternoon, but hardly a drop of rain in the absence of cold air dynamics aloft. Next upstream system for tomorrow will bring light to moderate warm orographic rain ahead of the big show Saturday. Strong low level jet aligned perpendicular to the coast ranges and the Sierra will bring in heavy ppt if the forecast is correct, combining cold air dynamics plus strong upslope forcing.
Quoting 221. pureet1948:




Well, it sure seems to be something. This storm system is making our local experts very, VERY nervous. Look at this from Eric Berger's Houston WX blog:

NEXT WEEK

Beginning Monday we%u2019ll see a lot more moisture flowing in off the Gulf of Mexico, which should increase clouds. A slight chance of rain on Monday will give way to better chances on Tuesday and then for much of the rest of next week. It%u2019s still too early to say how much rain, but I think 1 to 2 inches are likely, with some areas seeing more than that. Potentially several inches more. We%u2019ll have to keep an eye on this pattern as it turns much more wet and perhaps unsettled.

No kidding. They're convinced we're going to have the worst storm system to drift over SE Texas since the Memorial Day floods:


THE DEEPENING OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AROUND THE BAJA TO MAKE FOR AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED
MODELS NOT BACKING OFF ON THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER THE TWIST
WITH THESE RUNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY JOG/RETROGRADE
OF THIS LOW AROUND MID WEEK. ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SLOWER TIMING
OF SAID SYSTEM...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS WITH THE LONG RANGE.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A WIDE OPEN GULF AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET
ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA). THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM(S) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF WILL HOPEFULLY BE SORTED OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. 41

Make of this what you will and call me in the morning.







Well ..I'm gonna need your number then ...

Look, if something were up in our area the people on this blog would be commenting about it. There would be responses to your postings with some "need to check it out" kind of responses. 1-2" isnt really anything, and there is nothing, and I mean nothing, (and FYI even though I have been following this blog for many, many years and I still struggle to keep up sometimes)) that indicates anything approaching Memorial Day rain/flooding event.

The people on this blog are special, and that is why I return. Sit back, read and study what is being posted, believe me, if something was up in our area we'd be reading about it.

Quoting 223. justmehouston:



Well ..I'm gonna need your number then ...

Look, if something were up in our area the people on this blog would be commenting about it. There would be responses to your postings with some "need to check it out" kind of responses. 1-2" isnt really anything, and there is nothing, and I mean nothing, (and FYI even though I have been following this blog for many, many years) that indicates anything approaching Memorial Day rain/flooding event.

The people on this blog are special, and that is why I return. Sit back, read and study what is being posted, believe me, if something was up in our area we'd be reading about it.




Then, in that case, they would be more concerned about hail, high winds, and perhaps a small tornado threat, right?
Quoting 207. BaltimoreBrian:



bwi, what a wonderful, superior response! :) I do have a Trek bike, which I ride a lot, but sometimes I love roaring on my Ducati too. Is your snow sticking yet?


I have a trek too and Volt for a vehicle. Most of the time no messy fumes other than being behind a gas car.
Quoting 214. pureet1948:



What am I seeing?
Not necessarily on that map, but SPC sees Day 4-8 convective outlook sees a severe risk for your area next week Tuesday. Bears watching.
Quoting 226. Barefootontherocks:

Not necessarily on that map, but SPC sees Day 4-8 convective outlook sees a severe risk for your area next week Tuesday. Bears watching.


And our rain chances at this time are 40%. Yes, need to watch but nothing to stress about right now, watch.
For the last two weeks I have been watching a pattern, storms on Tuesday that continue to move down the week to Saturday, as Saturday approaches storms get moved to Tuesday (that's the one that you mention now)
Quoting 214. pureet1948:



What am I seeing?


Some rain. I think Houston had seen rain before.
Already down to 32 degrees down here. I had a feeling it'd get to freezing and below quicker than anticipated..
Quoting 229. Articuno:

Already down to 32 degrees down here. I had a feeling it'd get to freezing and below quicker than anticipated..


I dont think that Houston saw 32F this year. We never really got much cold, rainy weather that we usually have in Feb.
I missed it, tried to enjoy the evenings that got into the 40's though.
Quoting 229. Articuno:

Already down to 32 degrees down here. I had a feeling it'd get to freezing and below quicker than anticipated..
Where in MD? Temperature fallen from 35.8° to 32.7° in Federal Hill since 8 p.m. Light steady snow.
Quoting 226. Barefootontherocks:

Not necessarily on that map, but SPC sees Day 4-8 convective outlook sees a severe risk for your area next week Tuesday. Bears watching.


I know. It might be a major event.
Quoting 227. justmehouston:



And our rain chances at this time are 40%. Yes, need to watch but nothing to stress about right now, watch.
For the last two weeks I have been watching a pattern, storms on Tuesday that continue to move down the week to Saturday, as Saturday approaches storms get moved to Tuesday (that's the one that you mention now)



I'm not stressed, but the pro mets seem to be. And when they're stressed....
Quoting 227. justmehouston:



And our rain chances at this time are 40%. Yes, need to watch but nothing to stress about right now, watch.
For the last two weeks I have been watching a pattern of storms on Tuesday that continue to move down the week to Saturday, as Saturday approached severe was posted for Tuesday (that's the one that you mention now)
An SPC risk area delineated on day 5 or 6 once in a while does not bear fruit, but it always bears watching - especially in Spring.
:)
Quoting 232. pureet1948:



I know. It might be a major event.
No telling at this point. Stressing over weather I understand much, because you can't do anyting about it except try to arrange your life so you will stay safe.

Your met IS stressing... stressing the potential s/he is watching for next week.
:)

Later, ladies and potatoes.
Quoting 234. Barefootontherocks:

An SPC risk area delineated on day 5 or 6 once in a while does not bear fruit, but it always bears watching - especially in Spring.
:)
No telling at this point. Stressing over weather I understand much, because you can't do anyting about it except try to arrange your life so you will stay safe.

Your met IS stressing... stressing the potential s/he is watching for next week.
:)

Later, ladies and potatoes.


Well, I do hope it STAYS potential and not reality. Over and out.
Anyone seen or heard from sar? He's usually on here and there and havent seen him?
Slow time of the posting season I guess?
237. vis0
Quoting 198. wunderkidcayman:

Can someone please respond to me I want to make sure that my comment are indeed making it through
almost can read yer comment problem is Bucsboltsfan wont share ...gimmmeee!! :- P.

WHERE is SAR2401? since the surprise nado outbreak in Bama-south have not seen a post by sar2401.
Quoting 237. vis0:

almost can read yer comment problem is Bucsboltsfan wont share ...gimmmeee!! :- P.

WHERE is SAR2401? since the surprise nado outbreak in Bama-south have not seen a post by sar2401.



That's what I was thinking too ...not since Alabama storms, hope all is well with him and his family
Quoting 228. Bucsboltsfan:



Some rain. I think Houston had seen rain before.


Rain we've seen before Bucsboltsfan. The kind of floods we've been getting---not since I'VE lived here.
241. vis0

Quoting 221. pureet1948:




Well, it sure seems to be something. This storm system is making our local experts very, VERY nervous. Look at this from Eric Berger's Houston WX blog:

NEXT WEEK

Beginning Monday we’ll see a lot more moisture flowing in off the Gulf of Mexico, which should increase clouds. A slight chance of rain on Monday will give way to better chances on Tuesday and then for much of the rest of next week. It’s still too early to say how much rain, but I think 1 to 2 inches are likely, with some areas seeing more than that. Potentially several inches more. We’ll have to keep an eye on this pattern as it turns much more wet and perhaps unsettled.

No kidding. They're convinced we're going to have the worst storm system to drift over SE Texas since the Memorial Day floods:


THE DEEPENING OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AROUND THE BAJA TO MAKE FOR AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED
MODELS NOT BACKING OFF ON THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER THE TWIST
WITH THESE RUNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY JOG/RETROGRADE
OF THIS LOW AROUND MID WEEK. ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SLOWER TIMING
OF SAID SYSTEM...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS WITH THE LONG RANGE.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A WIDE OPEN GULF AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET
ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA). THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM(S) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF WILL HOPEFULLY BE SORTED OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. 41

Make of this what you will and call me in the morning.



Its one of those somethings that in not being tightly wrapped like a classic LOW or negative tilting trough-LOW therefore  it receives very little attention since its shown in a static image but  if one views an AniGIF of that period via  WxModels, one knows lives are changed in that the LOW stalls or trains over them.
Quoting 241. vis0:


Its one of those somethings that in not being tightly wrapped like a classic LOW or negative tilting trough-LOW therefore  it receives very little attention since its shown in a static image but  if one views an AniGIF of that period via  WxModels, one knows lives are changed in that the LOW stalls or trains over them.






Lives to the east of the Houston metro, anyway.
Quoting 237. vis0:

almost can read yer comment problem is Bucsboltsfan wont share ...gimmmeee!! :- P.

WHERE is SAR2401? since the surprise nado outbreak in Bama-south have not seen a post by sar2401.



Oh no, I hope he's OK. I was going to write sar in for prez…that is if you run as his veep vis0. I can almost see the campain photo shot of him with his AK47, shirtless, radar dog at his side, how could he loose?
Still saying rain for Sun/Mon for Soo Cal

If it's gets real bad, your welcome to stay at my house. Might be a drive, but it should be safe.


Quoting 232. pureet1948:



I know. It might be a major event.
Quoting 245. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Still saying rain for Sun/Mon for Soo Cal




That is about an Inch for here...
Quoting 140. bwi:



I highly recommend the Kona Big Rove. Zero fossil fuel, totally badass, and under $1,400. No smelly fumes, no stupid noise. I have one. So should you.



Sweet ride! Kona bikes used to be made right here in whatcom county, wa. Now china, although they did just open a large showroom/trials course in Bellingham. Always liked my 1989 Trek 990 mtn bike, put road slicks on it and biked to school n work the 7 yrs I lived in town%u2026rain or shine. Have a serious full suspension GT mtn bike now but am always happy to let a nephew or friend ride it while I school them on the trail with the old road warrior.
Quoting 111. BaltimoreBrian:

I highly recommend the Ducati Streetfighter. Fuel efficient, fun, and under $14,000. I have one. So should you. Click picture to expand.






Trying to picture what my wife would do if I rolled home on one of those…..









Well I guess I'll stick with the pedal power, better for my health :-)
I won't ride motorcycles any more... Although I admit that the polaris slingshot is looking rather nice.

Problem for me with two or three wheeled motorized vehicles is that ice and snow (except for this year) are typically on the roads expect for June - August. So it really means a lot of money invested for only a few months of being able to ride.
Quoting 247. PedleyCA:



That is about an Inch for here...


Let's keep our fingers crossed!
252. vis0
Quoting 223. justmehouston:


Well ..I'm gonna need your number then ...
Look, if something were up in our area the people on this blog would be commenting about it....

this i thought i posted with comment# but the site it was hosted on shut for upgrade VENTING:: Of the other 2 sites i use one reached its kb limit (time to spring clean) and other also upgrading. It took me 90 mins to find another aniGIF hosting site (allows over 1mb of file.)
Excellent Guardian article here, on the recent flood of annual and monthly global temperature records. Apparently, February 2016 is set to blow January out of the water as the greatest monthly temperature anomaly on record.

As this is the second year of a record El Nino, you'd be excused for thinking that El Nino is responsible for the great majority of the extra heat. But, rather worryingly, it might not be.

Link
254. vis0
Quoting 207. BaltimoreBrian:



bwi, what a wonderful, superior response! :) I do have a Trek bike, which I ride a lot, but sometimes I love roaring on my Ducati too. Is your snow sticking yet?
Hey Dakster, Nativesun, baltimorebrian, SassyBamaRebel   (okay last name added cause i like how it sounds)

look you like bikes SOOOO much here is a BMW, well for Dyslexics like me for most others a BWM (BikeWashingMachine), whats that Washi115? ...ah... quarters go in the pocket of the captain?

LookawaytoloweraGW.gif
 

apology misplaced Nativesun in aniGIF.

Tried to upload a 5MB aniGIF but my image sites are acting up...probably think they'll get an OSCAR.
255. MahFL
Quoting 248. plantmoretrees:



Sweet ride! Kona bikes used to be made right here in whatcom county, wa.


I have a Marin like this one, I don't ride it currently though :(
And yes it is pink !

WFP says 16 mln face hunger in southern Africa, emergency looms
Source: Reuters - Fri, 4 Mar 2016 11:55 GMT
JOHANNESBURG, March 4 (Reuters) - Almost 16 million people face hunger in Southern Africa because of a drought exacerbated by an El Nino weather pattern and that number could climb to almost 50 million, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) said on Friday. ...

U.S. sends elite disaster experts to respond to Ethiopia drought
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 3 Mar 2016 19:05 GMT
NAIROBI, March 3 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - The United States is sending an elite team of disaster experts to respond to Ethiopia's worst drought in 50 years, it said on Thursday. ...
"The worst impacts of this drought still lie ahead," USAID said in a statement. "The scale and severity of this crisis is expected to far outstrip available resources."
Ethiopia's spring rains started in late February but many farmers do not have seeds. ...


Good Morning. It is crystal clear from all the recent global heat records-anomalies of the past few years (and now continuing into Jan-Feb 2016) that we have crossed the rubicon into a rapidly warming world at this point. That will have huge consequences around the world in terms of water shortages, crop failures, migration issues and political unrest over the next few decades. This bigger question is how mankind will rise, or fall, to the challenge of climate change in this modern world context.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
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