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At Least 5 Killed as Tornadoes, Howling Thunderstorm Winds Rake Eastern US

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:58 PM GMT on February 25, 2016

Whipping northward at interstate speeds, multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms raced from the Carolinas to New England on Wednesday and early Thursday. The springlike round of severe weather--which extended unusually far north for February--took one life in South Carolina and at least four in Virginia, making Wednesday the latter state’s deadliest tornado day since the notorious Super Outbreak of April 27, 2011. Three people, including a two-year-old boy, were killed in hard-hit Waverly, VA, and another man died in Appomattox County (see photo of the Appomattox tornado at bottom).


Figure 1. Lightning lights up the night sky behind a home in Waverly, Va, that was hit by a tornado earlier in the day, Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016. Fast-moving storms swept into Virginia on Wednesday, leaving at least three dead in the tiny farming town of Waverly and injuring several others across the state, authorities said. Image credit: Todd Spencer/ The Virginian-Pilot via AP.

Fierce winds at the surface and aloft
Wednesday’s storms lived up to the soberly worded outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) earlier in the day. Local NWS offices across the region had their hands full keeping up with dozens of tornadic supercells and line segments with embedded rotation. Many locations were under tornado warnings at least twice throughout the day. Winds at all levels were howling from the south, which allowed individual storm cells to scream north while lines of storms translated slowly eastward. At least one warning cited a cell motion of 100 mph, which is extremely unusual in an NWS warning. These “training” echoes led to many 2” - 3” rain totals from the Washington, D.C., area north across much of New England. Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow dubbed the storm in D.C. “arguably one of the fiercest since the June 2012 derecho.”

Even apart from thunderstorms, the southerly winds produced widespread gusts above 40 mph. By 7 am EST Thursday morning, NOAA/SPC had racked up at least 17 tornado reports and more than 300 reports of high wind, extending from Florida to Maine. Hail up to baseball size was reported near Tungsten, NC, and Castle Heights, VA.

The surprise element Wednesday night was how far north the action extended. A wedge of cold air eroded more quickly than expected, allowing warm, moist air to surge north ahead of a slow-moving cold front. This warm front set the stage for late-night thunderstorms that would be impressive for the region in May, much less February. By late Wednesday night, severe thunderstorm watches had been placed as far poleward as southern Vermont and eastern Massachusetts “If not unprecedented, I'd characterize yesterday as ‘highly unusual’,” said Greg Carbin, warning and coordination meteorologist for NOAA/SPC.

At 9 PM EST Tuesday, Boston’s Logan Airport was fogged in, with nearly calm winds and the temperature a clammy 42°F. By 3 AM Wednesday, the temperature had jumped to 61°F, with south winds gusting to 46 mph. Meteorologist Jacob Wycoff noted that the last time western Massachusetts experienced a severe thunderstorm warning in February was nearly 20 years ago--on Feb. 22, 1997. Winds at the iconic Blue Hill Observatory, the nation’s oldest continuous weather station, gusted to 74 mph just before the storms moved in around 3 AM.


Figure 2. Model depictions of winds at 250 mb, or about 34,000 feet (left) and 850 mb, or about 5,000 feet (right), produced at 7:00 pm EST Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016, and valid at 1:00 am Thursday. The strong upper-level jet at left was projected to head toward New England with 250-mb winds topping 140 knots (160 mph). Strong diffluence--evident in the wind contours parting as they approach New England--supported vigorous thunderstorm growth. At right, a large area of 850-mb winds was projected to exceed 64 knots (74 mph). Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 3. WunderMap radar depiction at 2:15 am EST Thursday showed a robust line of thunderstorms--several of them severe--moving across central New England, with weaker secondary storms over central New York. A shield of snow extended from Quebec into the central U.S.

Winter weather pummels Midwest
While the Eastern Seaboard grappled with springlike storms, areas from Missouri to Michigan were plastered by a more seasonable round of heavy snow. Power was knocked out to thousands, and dozens of vehicles were stuck overnight in Chicago’s Grant Park, according to weather.com. Accumulations of up to 11" hit the northern suburbs of Detroit, and the exceptionally wet, heavy nature of the snow led to warnings that heart attacks were likely for those with heart conditions who attempted to shovel the cement-like stuff.


Figure 4. My Davis Weather Station needed a solar panel brush-off after 11" of wet, heavy snow caked it overnight. The northern suburbs of Detroit where I live got the highest accumulations of anywhere in Michigan from the storm. - Jeff Masters

Next week: rinse and repeat?
After a more tranquil weekend and an uneventful start to next week, the eastern U.S. could see another powerhouse storm system. Long-range models are suggesting the potential for an inland nor’easter not unlike the one just departing, with severe weather again possible from the South to the mid-Atlantic and perhaps northward from there. El NIño commonly intensifies severe weather across the Gulf states during winter, but multiple rounds of severe storms north of the Carolinas would be a more unorthodox happening.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this week's tornadoes
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is responding to this week's devastating tornadoes. Since a large area was affected, Portlight is focusing on identifying those who lost their mobility thru loss of walkers, wheel and powerchairs, and where home ramps will need to be rebuilt or replaced. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

We’ll be back on Friday with our next post.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters



Severe Rainbow
Severe Rainbow
Rainbow at the trailing edge of a severe storm in North Carolina.

Extreme Weather Severe Weather Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hi Scott. Looking at the CFS you posted it's obvious the El Nino will continue.
Quoting 1. Llamaluvr:

Hi Scott. Looking at the CFS you posted it's obvious the El Nino will continue.

I highly doubt it....
This from CNN :

Packing up because of climate change

Miami Beach, Florida (CNN)Dan Kipnis -- a retired fishing captain on Miami Beach -- has a home office so cluttered with sea creatures that it feels like a drained aquarium. .............................. But Kipnis is taking the science of global warming to heart in a way that relatively few of us do, even in a "ground zero" location for climate change such as Miami Beach.

When I met him last week, he was packing up the white, two-story house, near the center of the island, about a 10-minute walk to shore, and planning to put it on the market.

He, the wife and the sea creatures are moving to higher ground. .............................................. "It's hard to overstate the importance of who is in the White House when it comes to dealing with climate change," said Vicki Arroyo, executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center. This is the presidential election that "will matter for 10,000 years," Vox's David Roberts wrote.

It truly will matter for generations or millennia.

"How old are you," Kipnis asked me before we left his home office.

"33."

"You're in for a s*** ride, you know that?"

Link
379. Llamaluvr
LOL don't kid yourself,

Been slightly under 80 here last 4 days. Normal is 68/45
Quoting 5. PedleyCA:


Been slightly under 80 here last 4 days. Normal is 68/45
This is just further evidence of the intensifying El Nino conditions that Scott has been speaking about.
NWS Binghamton ‏@NWSBinghamton 58m58 minutes ago
A tornado has been confirmed with the storm that produced damage in Bradford county PA last night, just north of Wyalusing. More info soon.

More bizarre news. Bradford County is on the border with NY state. I would think a tornado in February there is most likely unprecedented.
Quoting 1. Llamaluvr:

Hi Scott. Looking at the CFS you posted it's obvious the El Nino will continue.


Downwelling Kelvin Wave appears to be developing as of this update today near the DateLine. Also the -3C anomalies have greatly diminished just in the last day or so.


SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST THU FEB 25 2016

OAHU-
330 AM HST THU FEB 25 2016

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES

Surf along north facing shores will be 40 to 55 feet this morning, then slowly subside to 30 to 40 feet on Friday.
Each day the CFSv2 trends upward now getting into strong territory this Fall.

Thanks for the updates gentlemen! You folks back east stay way from them tornados!


Triple waterspouts on Lake Pontchartrain 'one for the record books'

SLIDELL, La. - National Weather Service meteorologist Michael Koziara has been dissecting our exclusive live video of Tuesday's triple waterspouts on Lake Pontchartrain.

"Traditionally, waterspouts in our area are weak and occur in the summer time around daybreak. This is anything but weak," he said, "That's probably the reason why, I mentioned earlier, I called it a tornadic waterspout, to add emphasis that the processes that generated the tornado that we saw in the video were much much different."

Koziara says its uniqueness comes in its shape, size, spin-off spouts and time alive.

"This is not the norm. If this would have made landfall, it would have produced property damage and would have been a threat," he said.

The activity started around Noon, after a cell that caused some damage in Kenner traveled over Lake Pontchartrain. Eyewitness News cameras spotted it on the lakefront in Mandeville as it headed toward the Fontainebleau State Park area. It was later learned these waterspouts were just the beginning of the overall system's power.

"The multiple tornadoes that occurred approximately from about Noon to, lets say around 5 or 6 o'clock in the afternoon, is highly unusual for the central Gulf Coast region and it's highly unusual for something like that to occur during winter time," said Koziara.

Koziara says the waterspout, and the day in general, was one for the record books.

Meteorologists say a day like Tuesday was so rare for this area they may not see another like it in their careers.
According to today's TAO update it appears the cold upwelling subsurface pool might be beginning to get pinched off @ round the Dateline. This might be hard for many to watch on here if this continues to occur over the coming weeks.

Quoting 11. StormTrackerScott:

Each day the CFSv2 trends upward now getting into strong territory this Fall.


Long live the El Nino !!!!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING CARIBOU ME - KCAR 403 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CARIBOU ME - KCAR 444 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
Quoting 15. Llamaluvr:

Long live the El Nino !!!!



It spring time once we get past the spring barrier we will no more on what will happen but the most likely outcome is a LA Nina
Quoting 20. Tazmanian:




It spring time once we get past the spring barrier we will no more on what will happen but the most likely outcome is a LA Nina


Not is WWB keep happening. Have you seen the long range CFS equatorial wind anomaly forecast? It shows WWB to some degree even in April.
The local CBS here,the Met showed us the NWS confirmed Nado Stikes and paths overlayed on the Map.

We had 10, within 50nm of the Home here, with the Kenner one closest to us by 5 miles to my west.

The Kenner Cell was the one that created the Tornadic Waterspout that WWL caught Live near the N. Shore. That cell we saw from the S. Shore while it was racing Neast.

The Squall line that followed thru with the wind shift was like a 25 minute Tropical Storm Sustained Gust in near the eyewall.

I got 2.73 in 27 minutes and 3 inches of floodwater in the Garage where the shop vac came in very handy for a hour.

Overall, it was the worst impact here since Isaac in Aug 2012.

I give it a personal 6.76 on the pucker scale of 10'.




Quoting 20. Tazmanian:




It spring time once we get past the spring barrier we will no more on what will happen but the most likely outcome is a LA Nina
Hi Taz! Sorry, but I don't think anyone can dispute the data Scott's providing. Maybe you'll get the La Nina in 2017 (maybe).
Quoting 19. StormTrackerScott:


lol the CFS is showing another super 3.0+c anomaly El nino like 1997 and last year. CFS been showing El ninos since 2012.
Quoting 20. Tazmanian:




It spring time once we get past the spring barrier we will no more on what will happen but the most likely outcome is a LA Nina
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Not is WWB keep happening. Have you seen the long range CFS equatorial wind anomaly forecast? It shows WWB to some degree even in April.

That's the thing... it's LONG RANGE STS.
Quoting 24. Gearsts:

lol the CFS is showing another super 3.0+c anomaly El nino like 1997 and last year. CFS been showing El ninos since 2012.

And it was wrong in 2012.... It's LONG RANGE
29. JRRP
Quoting 25. tiggerhurricanes2001:


That's the thing... it's LONG RANGE STS.
Scott was one of the first to predict this El Nino, and this is the same data he used. I think some people may be eating crow as the season progresses. Scott is an expert on El Nino (he is also a saint with children and a genius with food additives).
There is some unusual warming in the far North Atlantic.... hmmm....
Quoting 31. Llamaluvr:

Scott was one of the first to predict this El Nino, and this is the same data he used. I think some people may be eating crow as the season progresses. Scott is an expert on El Nino (he is also a saint with children and a genius with food additives).

Thanks for the info!!! However, it does not change the fact that's very long range. STS seems like a genuinely nice person. If he would have said he was an expert on el nino earlier, i might've put more faith in his prediction.
As a Titanic El Nino Begins to Fade, What Fresh Trouble Will a Record Warm World Bring?

Today the globe is feeling quite a bit of backlash from a human-warmed sea surface and atmosphere. As it ends up, Dr. Kevin Trenberth was right. Deep ocean warming set off by heat-trapping fossil fuel emissions and building up through the first two decades of the 21st Century did re-surge from the depths to haunt us in 2014, 2015 and 2016. In that wrenching global climate system shift to the hot side of natural variability, a titanic El Nino emerged. It was one of the top three strongest such events in the modern record. One that by NOAA’s measure appears to have tied the extreme event of 1998 at its peak intensity.

Link
Quoting 33. Tazmanian:



No he's not he is high on coffee then starts coming here and posting suff that are 6 months down the road any one that follows him and his postings are idiots what he dos not no it's spring barrier time right now we will no more on what will happen once we get past spring barrier
Spring barrier is highly overrated.
Guys ignore the trolls please.
Remarkable yet terrible weather recently along the Gulf Coast going up the East Coast.

Here in S.W. Florida, I've never seen so many tornadoes affect our area in such a short period of time.

Here's a map showing the tornadoes we've had over the past two months here in S.W. Florida.


Quoting 32. tiggerhurricanes2001:

There is some unusual warming in the far North Atlantic.... hmmm....
One day the setup for the Atlantic will look like this again.


That's the Atlantic to the max and doesn't get more +++AMO than that. I get a little tear in my eye when i see that pic.
Quoting 39. Gearsts:

Guys ignore the trolls please.


You sould no by now that's impossible with the stupid quote on here so you still see my comment if I get qouteed if some one has me on ignored
Quoting 39. Gearsts:

Guys ignore the trolls please.
He doesn't bother me. We just have a different opinion. However we should probably try a different subject. I don't know if it's weather related, but has anyone else heard about the weird noise in Oregon?
Quoting 43. Llamaluvr:

He doesn't bother me. We just have a different opinion. However we should probably try a different subject. I don't know if it's weather related, but has anyone else heard about the weird noise in Oregon?



Good idea Volcano maybe?
Thank You for the update and the Portlight link.  This El Nino is currently living up to the reputation after a relatively slow start to the lower trajectory lows that usually spawn more blizzards and snowstorms (Nor'Easters) in the December to January period.  February and March appears to be making up for the slow start and trajectory for the next potential one as you have noted does boil down to the "inland nor'easter" like this recent one or a more traditional swing on the Atlantic side (off-shore Nor-Easter)  with the potential blizzards on the NE coast.  Either way, the Southern US can get hammered on the way up North but this recent storm was truly exceptional.
Quoting 3. RobertWC:

This from CNN :

Packing up because of climate change..................... "It's hard to overstate the importance of who is in the White House when it comes to dealing with climate change," said Vicki Arroyo, executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center. This is the presidential election that "will matter for 10,000 years," Vox's David Roberts wrote.

It truly will matter for generations or millennia.>"You're in for a s*** ride, you know that?"

Link


Well I certainly agree that elections are important, but lets be honest, so long as all the worlds major religions, including capitalism, promote unlimited growth there is no chance of slowing, let alone stopping agw. If we as a species can not control our own reproduction eventually mother nature will. Not much the prez can do about the population bomb, it comes down to individuals making better choices…and I dont see much evidence of that happening. Sorry for the pessimism, but this darn cold has me feeling under the weather. Yuck. Beautifull sunny 55° in Acme Wa, wishing I had the energy to go out and enjoy it.
Cousin from Jersey messaged me other night and couldn't believe she was under a tornado watch. I told her it's climate change.

Meanwhile my PWS is online and on the WUndermap. How many on here have theirs online here?
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Not is WWB keep happening. Have you seen the long range CFS equatorial wind anomaly forecast? It shows WWB to some degree even in April.
Just to note Kevin Trenberth says this El Nino has been distorted by a warm eastern equatorial Indian Ocean that prevented the warm pool from cooling off as it normally would. He stated that in regard to why that unfortunately persistent west coast ridging has been able to resist what otherwise should have been an overwhelming parade of El Nino-driven storms, but presumably it would have other implications.

Just as with the Arctic, it's unsurprising to see the characteristics of ENSO change unpredictably with continued sharp heating of the oceans and atmosphere. As leading climate scientist Joaquin Schellnhuber said a year ago, "stationarity is dead"; IOW, the past is becoming a less and less useful guide to the future.
Quoting 48. RitaEvac:

Cousin from Jersey messaged me other night and couldn't believe she was under a tornado watch. I told her it's climate change.

Meanwhile my PWS is online and on the WUndermap. How many on here have theirs online here?


Every weather event (drought, floods, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more tornadoes, less tornadoes, blizzards, etc) is being influenced in some way by climate change.
But one of the major factors that's been influencing the severe weather this Winter (including all the tornadoes across the Gulf Coast, Florida, and Mid Atlantic region) is the current El-Nino setup.

Without the strong El-Nino we wouldn't be seeing a lot of these Winter tornadoes.
For example, last year we had a very slow tornado season (especially during the Winter)
Hmm...
Quoting 49. spbloom:

Just to note Kevin Trenberth says this El Nino has been distorted by a warm eastern equatorial Indian Ocean that prevented the warm pool from cooling off as it normally would. He stated that in regard to why that unfortunately persistent west coast ridging has been able to resist what otherwise should have been an overwhelming parade of El Nino-driven storms, but presumably it would have other implications.

Just as with the Arctic, it's unsurprising to see the characteristics of ENSO change unpredictably with continued sharp heating of the oceans and atmosphere. As leading climate scientist Joaquin Schellnhuber said a year ago, "stationarity is dead"; IOW, the past is becoming a less and less useful guide to the future.


Very good post. I see the implications of the Indian Ocean especially eastern Indian Ocean. This year is a different animal compared to 1998 after that Super El-Nino and the one in 1983. CFS is for sure an outliner but you can't ignore what the model is seeing short term and how the short term implications set off another possibly Strong El-Nino. Its possible this El-Nino this Fall could ramp up fast similar to 1982. Bottomline I don't think we've seen the last of this El-Nino.
Quoting 9. StormTrackerScott:



Downwelling Kelvin Wave appears to be developing as of this update today near the DateLine. Also the -3C anomalies have greatly diminished just in the last day or so.



Scott if El-nino continues thru the summer how does that affect florida?
I'll be having to get a new rain gauge as my current cocorhas one did not survive the hail yesterday. The rim looks like someone spent their day hitting it with a hammer.
Here is a look @ the Eastern Indian Ocean. Not you typical set up for a quick transition to La-Nina.

Experts say we should be back to neutral conditions by late spring...
Quoting 53. LargoFl:

Scott if El-nino continues thru the summer how does that affect florida?


To be honest not sure. As it seems everything is out of whack across the Globe. Strange set up I an noticing Largo that could prove the CFS as being somewhat correct in what it is showing.
Quoting 23. Llamaluvr:

Hi Taz! Sorry, but I don't think anyone can dispute the data Scott's providing. Maybe you'll get the La Nina in 2017 (maybe).
Taz, its not worth the time you waste blogging with them, this Nino is toast, and we will have neutral to Nina conditions by the summer of 2016.
Quoting 56. CaribBoy:

Experts say we should be back to neutral conditions by late spring...


They were saying we would be there or close to it in March back in December and now that March is just a few days away we are still hovering in the 2.2 to 2.4C range. The slower this El-Nino weakens the better the chances of a resurgence of El-Nino later this Summer.
Is 2016 likely going to be yet another inactive season for the Atlantic? I kind of miss the days of the active Atlantic...
Quoting 28. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Looks like a Nina is on the way this summer. All the ENSO regions are cooling.
Quoting 57. StormTrackerScott:



To be honest not sure. As it seems everything is out of whack across the Globe. Strange set up I an noticing Largo that could prove the CFS as being somewhat correct in what it is showing.
ok thanks, sure is strange this winter here.
Quoting 3. RobertWC:

This from CNN :

Packing up because of climate change

Miami Beach, Florida (CNN)Dan Kipnis -- a retired fishing captain on Miami Beach -- has a home office so cluttered with sea creatures that it feels like a drained aquarium. .............................. But Kipnis is taking the science of global warming to heart in a way that relatively few of us do, even in a "ground zero" location for climate change such as Miami Beach.

When I met him last week, he was packing up the white, two-story house, near the center of the island, about a 10-minute walk to shore, and planning to put it on the market.

He, the wife and the sea creatures are moving to higher ground. .............................................. "It's hard to overstate the importance of who is in the White House when it comes to dealing with climate change," said Vicki Arroyo, executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center. This is the presidential election that "will matter for 10,000 years," Vox's David Roberts wrote.

It truly will matter for generations or millennia.

"How old are you," Kipnis asked me before we left his home office.

"33."

"You're in for a s*** ride, you know that?"

Link
You cut the last part, which is Sutter (the reporter) saying:

Not if we wake up.

Sadly no since much damage is already locked in and unavoidable. That increases the impetus for action since each increment of damage will be worse and worse going forward, but I do worry that such apparent Pollyannas will react by turning inward and raising the drawbridges as the reality sinks in.
Quoting 53. LargoFl:

Scott if El-nino continues thru the summer how does that affect florida?
Not to worry no Nino this summer, more like Neutral to Nina conditions by this upcoming summer.
65. JRRP
Quoting 60. HurricaneFan:

Is 2016 likely going to be yet another inactive season for the Atlantic? I kind of miss the days of the active Atlantic...


I don't think so. It looks active infact we could start off pretty fast with systems spinning up. Wildcard though is September and beyond especially when looking at the CFS
67. JRRP
Quoting 45. Gearsts:



that will warm up the MDR
Quoting 65. JRRP:


Fingers Crossed.
Quoting 63. spbloom:

You cut the last part, which is Sutter (the reporter) saying:

Not if we wake up.

Sadly no since much damage is already locked in and unavoidable. That increases the impetus for action since each increment of damage will be worse and worse going forward, but I do worry that such apparent Pollyannas will react by turning inward and raising the drawbridges as the reality sinks in.
Bloom, I knew Dan quite well when he had his fishing boat on Watson Island and Bayside, if he is smart, he is selling his house to get away from the crowd in Miami, as I will be doing in the near future when my son goes to college, but I will be moving to the Keys and live on the Bayside in Islamorada, and will keep the house in the Falls area, in case we need to leave for a storm.
Quoting 67. JRRP:


that will warm up the atlantic

Will it turn us into a positive AMO cycle?
71. JRRP
Quoting 70. HurricaneFan:


Will it turn us into a positive AMO cycle?

well... let's take a look what Phil says
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Far North Atlantic SSTs averaged over past 30 days are coldest on record (data since 1948). +AMO at its end?
Quoting 71. JRRP:


well... let's take a look what Phil says
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Far North Atlantic SSTs averaged over past 30 days are coldest on record (data since 1948). +AMO at its end?
All the models have a cold N atlantic for the peak of the season.
Quoting 31. Llamaluvr:

Scott was one of the first to predict this El Nino, and this is the same data he used. I think some people may be eating crow as the season progresses. Scott is an expert on El Nino (he is also a saint with children and a genius with food additives).


Give me a break. Someone was wrong and cried wolf for a year and a half and then you say he's and expert and right. Based on your other comments - how is Mrs. STS (Jeff) doing today?
Quoting 60. HurricaneFan:

Is 2016 likely going to be yet another inactive season for the Atlantic? I kind of miss the days of the active Atlantic...


No.

and.


I don't.
Quoting 73. luvtogolf:



Give me a break. Someone was wrong and cried wolf for a year and a half and then you say he's and expert and right. Based on your other comments - how is Mrs. STS (Jeff) doing today?



i just snorted my coke
77. vis0
(round1)Quoting 20. Tazmanian:




It spring time once we get past the spring barrier we will no more on what will happen but the most likely outcome is a LA Nina

        & nbsp;       &nb sp;    (round2)Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Not is WWB keep happening. Have you seen the long range CFS equatorial wind anomaly forecast? It shows WWB to some degree even in April.

Refs vis0 comes in between them as bell (spring barrier) sounds.

Interview with Ref between rounds)::
Though i lean towards some sort of weird El Nino to s l o w l y diminish, i do have to respect the many years of records showing that if during N. Hemispheres Spring the ENSO readings towards model runs lean towards pho-reading...

 (not false just readings that give an impression of one thing but what happens is another thing)

...but a 10 to 1.5 ratio  (last year was 1 full year off i think 4060 years ago spring barrier leaned towards half el nino we saw full nino, hence .5 plus the many ENSO areas / Indexes to lean towards a better read)

(Dakster slides a 2 spot to the Ref. under the lower ring rope  :- P)
Is this likely to be tropical or nontropical???
Quoting 55. StormTrackerScott:

Here is a look @ the Eastern Indian Ocean. Not you typical set up for a quick transition to La-Nina.



Whatever actually develops over the summer and fall, it's clear that El Nino is still in full sway right now. It's also clear that it has been a highly unusual strong El Nino which I suspect may have to do with the abnormally warm Arctic. The usual pattern of an extended rainy pattern for California has not materialized, except for January.

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Sanjogeeta Kiran, right, with her sister Sulva Kiran, second left, and her children Shivendera, left, and Raajeen, sit amid the debris of their home in RakiRaki, Fiji,

Cyclone Winston Leaves Tens Of Thousands Homeless In Fiji
The death toll from Cyclone Winston, the worst storm ever recorded in the southern hemisphere, currently stands at 42.
02/25/2016 03:40 am ET


REUTERS

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of Fijians remain homeless and living in evacuation shelters in the aftermath of a devastating cyclone at the weekend, officials said on Thursday, as aid began trickling in to the outer reaches of the South Pacific archipelago.

The death toll from Cyclone Winston, the worst storm ever recorded in the southern hemisphere, remained at 42 but officials at Fiji's National Disaster Management Office fear that figure will rise.

Officials from the disaster agency estimate that 35,000 people are sheltering in evacuation centers, some of which are damaged and running short of food and other supplies. Some 900,000 people live in the archipelago of more than 300 islands

International aid agencies said supplies were being delivered but the scale of the damage to infrastructure, particularly jetties and communications equipment, was making it hard to reach remote communities where help was most needed.

CARE Australia spokesman Dylan Quinnell said there had still been no contact with some remote communities, including one at Yasawa on the northwest coast of Fiji's largest island, Viti Levu, since the cyclone made landfall on Saturday. Others had been reached using radios dropped by the New Zealand air force.

Alice Clements, a UNICEF aid worker, told Reuters by phone from Nadi, Fiji's main tourism hub, that some communities had been totally destroyed but that rebuilding had already begun.

"People are going out during the day to recover what they can, it's not like they're sitting in the shelters helpless, they are salvaging what they can and dusting themselves off," Clements said.

Ahmad Sami, the acting head of the International Red Cross in the Pacific, said providing shelter and water remained immediate priorities.

"Volunteers on the ground are saying the destruction is like nothing which they have ever seen before," Sami said.

"Houses have collapsed, communications are still down, power transmission is down, wharves are still not accessible and roads and highways have been damaged," he said.

Joseph Hing, another UNICEF worker, landed on the worst-hit island of Koro on Tuesday and said it "looked like someone took a torch and just burnt from one side to the other".

"As we sailed closer, we started to smell the dead carcasses of livestock that were floating past the ships. When we smelt those, we knew that this disaster was really, really bad," he said in a statement.

Aid workers have warned of potential outbreaks of the Zika and Dengue viruses, both carried by mosquitoes that could breed in the stagnant water left by the storm.
Quoting 78. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Is this likely to be tropical or nontropical???img
src="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mode ls/gem/2016022512/gem_z850_vort_atl_21.png" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">


It could be a weak subtropical depression. We'll just have to wait and see...
Quoting 78. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Is this likely to be tropical or nontropical???
Since it's a low that's likely to form in association with the very strong cold front moving out into the Atlantic, it's not likely that it will be tropical.

Well, I can see the weather has improved now that we have El Nino arguments cranking up again.

The clouds have cleared in SE Alabama and it's been a sunny day with a high so far of 64 after a low of 38. The winds are still surprisingly strong, gusting at 22 mph. It's not often we see gradient winds from here to a low all the way up into Canada.

I think what we saw yesterday and early this morning up the East Coast really was a Nor'easter. The difference was the 150 mph jet stream dip that was able to carry warm air all the way into New England. If there had been more cold air in place and less warm air being transported north by the anomalously strong subtropical jet, it would have been an all-out blizzard on the eastern seaboard, just like the snow in northern Michigan.

BTW, Doc, you get a D- for neatness on the wiring job for your Davis. :-)
Woke up to the distant sound of thunder at 2am and the for the next hour it was thunder, rain, and winds pounding the house. I managed to look at the temp while getting a drink of water and it was at 51. It was 34 and raining when I fell asleep at a very early hour last night. Parts of the road had mud all the way across as well as giant ponds in places this morning on the way to work. By lunch time it was sunny and unseasonably warm:

... Record high temperature set at Concord NH...

A record high temperature was set at Concord NH today. At 1229 PM
the temperature jumped up to 63 degrees. This breaks the old record
of 60 set in 1984.


Strange for February.......
Quoting 13. Patrap:



Triple waterspouts on Lake Pontchartrain 'one for the record books'

SLIDELL, La. - National Weather Service meteorologist Michael Koziara has been dissecting our exclusive live video of Tuesday's triple waterspouts on Lake Pontchartrain.

"Traditionally, waterspouts in our area are weak and occur in the summer time around daybreak. This is anything but weak," he said, "That's probably the reason why, I mentioned earlier, I called it a tornadic waterspout, to add emphasis that the processes that generated the tornado that we saw in the video were much much different."

Koziara says its uniqueness comes in its shape, size, spin-off spouts and time alive.

"This is not the norm. If this would have made landfall, it would have produced property damage and would have been a threat," he said.

The activity started around Noon, after a cell that caused some damage in Kenner traveled over Lake Pontchartrain. Eyewitness News cameras spotted it on the lakefront in Mandeville as it headed toward the Fontainebleau State Park area. It was later learned these waterspouts were just the beginning of the overall system's power.

"The multiple tornadoes that occurred approximately from about Noon to, lets say around 5 or 6 o'clock in the afternoon, is highly unusual for the central Gulf Coast region and it's highly unusual for something like that to occur during winter time," said Koziara.

Koziara says the waterspout, and the day in general, was one for the record books.

Meteorologists say a day like Tuesday was so rare for this area they may not see another like it in their careers.


Perhaps such events will become more frequent with a future warmer more moist climate.

There has been a definite uptick in the frequency of huge snow dumps here in DC even as total snowfall per decade has declined and winters have warmed ( a little.. signal is weak here compared to midwest)

So we can't use past statistics to infer future behavior in these cases.

Quoting 86. sar2401:

Well, I can see the weather has improved now that we have El Nino arguments cranking up again.

The clouds have cleared in SE Alabama and it's been a sunny day with a high so far of 64 after a low of 38. The winds are still surprisingly strong, gusting at 22 mph. It's not often we see gradient winds from here to a low all the way up into Canada.

I think what we saw yesterday and early this morning up the East Coast really was a Nor'easter. The difference was the 150 mph jet stream dip that was able to carry warm air all the way into New England. If there had been more cold air in place and less warm air being transported north by the anomalously strong subtropical jet, it would have been an all-out blizzard on the eastern seaboard, just like the snow in northern Michigan.

BTW, Doc, you get a D- for neatness on the wiring job for your Davis. :-)


The track was way too far west for a northeaster. With entrenched cold air this would have been a cold rain, or light snow to marginal ice to rain event east of the spine of the appalachians. The two remarkable things about this storm were 1. the wedge definitively broke early, and 2. the air to the south of and above the wedge was even warmer and more humid (MUCH warmer and more humid) than one usually finds in February warm sectors here.


Quoting 81. HurricaneFan:



It could be a weak subtropical depression. We'll just have to wait and see...
Quoting 83. sar2401:

Since it's a low that's likely to form in association with the very strong cold front moving out into the Atlantic, it's not likely that it will be tropical.



Thanks!!!
Quoting 48. RitaEvac:

Cousin from Jersey messaged me other night and couldn't believe she was under a tornado watch. I told her it's climate change.

Meanwhile my PWS is online and on the WUndermap. How many on here have theirs online here?

How about a link to your station.....
The Fla water story rolls on -

Florida Officials Drain Lake Full Of ‘Toilet’ Water To Coast

With tourist season just around the corner, Florida’s beach communities would normally be preparing for a happy, healthy summer. Instead, they’re reeling from polluted water that is likely to inflict severe damage to the local economy and environment.

Lake Okeechobee, a large inland lake in southern Florida, is experiencing its highest water levels in nearly a century due to heavy rains that fell during the month of January. This should not be suprising, because heavy rainfall events are increasing as the planet warms. But after water levels reached a foot above normal, public officials began to worry that the excess water was putting too much stress on the lake’s aging dike. Officials then made the decision to drain the lake out toward Florida’s coasts. There was one problem: Lake Okeechobee’s waters are toxic.

Local industry has long been using Okeechobee’s waters as a dumping ground for an assortment of chemicals, fertilizers, and cattle manure. David Guest, managing attorney of the Florida branch of the environmental law group Earthjustice, called the lake a “toilet.” While the pollution was once confined to the lake, it now flows toward Florida’s coastal communities via local rivers. The water, which is flowing out of the lake at 70,000 gallons per second, will soon pollute the ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.


Link
Big storms next week. Same time, same place
Oh, two more things. el Nino will begin to weaken at the end of March and above-average Atlantic season. Case closed!
Quoting 92. RobertWC:

The Fla water story rolls on -

Florida Officials Drain Lake Full Of %u2018Toilet%u2019 Water To Coast

With tourist season just around the corner, Florida%u2019s beach communities would normally be preparing for a happy, healthy summer. Instead, they%u2019re reeling from polluted water that is likely to inflict severe damage to the local economy and environment.

Lake Okeechobee, a large inland lake in southern Florida, is experiencing its highest water levels in nearly a century due to heavy rains that fell during the month of January. This should not be suprising, because heavy rainfall events are increasing as the planet warms. But after water levels reached a foot above normal, public officials began to worry that the excess water was putting too much stress on the lake%u2019s aging dike. Officials then made the decision to drain the lake out toward Florida%u2019s coasts. There was one problem: Lake Okeechobee%u2019s waters are toxic.

Local industry has long been using Okeechobee%u2019s waters as a dumping ground for an assortment of chemicals, fertilizers, and cattle manure. David Guest, managing attorney of the Florida branch of the environmental law group Earthjustice, called the lake a %u201Ctoilet.%u201D While the pollution was once confined to the lake, it now flows toward Florida%u2019s coastal communities via local rivers. The water, which is flowing out of the lake at 70,000 gallons per second, will soon pollute the ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.


Link


This is a huge news story here in Fort Myers. The picture in the link from the Airplane is right off Sanibel Island here in the Fort Myers area.
Link
Sanibel Island Light house where the river feeds into the GOM just west of Fort Myers.
Quoting 96. Sfloridacat5:

Link
Sanible Light house where the river feeds into the GOM.


That is really disgusting.
Relativity chilly day with temps highs near 65F with winds making it feel cooler. It's gets slightly cooler tomorrow with temps overnight near freezing. May be our last freeze of the year as it looks to be a warm pattern with lots of severe threats. Next week looks to be a big one. However instability in my region may be a limiting factor, especially for tornadoes. Will have to wait and see on the timing and the position of the surface low in responsible for a tornado outbreak or a widespread damaging wind event.
sorry for the selfish request, and i know i don't contribute to the blog anymore but i'm looking for a replacement link to get a nicely packaged water vapor loop of the CONUS.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/imagery/land.ht ml please WU mail any suggestions if any would be so kind, may not be back to blog for a day or two.
greatly appreciated, Mike.
Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



This is a huge news story here in Fort Myers. The picture in the link from the Airplane is right off Sanibel Island here in the Fort Myers area.


Many thanks for that .
79. indianrivguy @ Dr. Rood's site has been keeping all there a breast of the unfolding disaster. Your picture hammers home his comments. Please share it there with him . He's a river keeper and is deeply knowledgeable.

I looked at the comments section of the Thinkprogress article , of course the Corps of Engineers was blamed, but I knew that it was not the whole story -

The SFWMD is the oldest and largest of the state's five water management districts, managing water resources in a 16-county region that stretches from Orlando to the Florida Keys. The agency's original mission was to provide flood control for South Florida residents by operating what has become one of the largest water management systems in the world. Today, our responsibilities have expanded to managing the regional water supply, improving water quality and protecting and restoring unique ecosystems, including America's Everglades.

They had a big hand in all this mess, and looking at their site I found this nugget :

Dry Season Bringing Above-Average Rainfall to South Florida
The first half of the 2015-2016 dry season, from November through January, was the wettest for this period across South Florida since record keeping began in 1932. January alone brought 9.18 inches of rain District-wide, 7.25 inches above average and also a record for the month. The dry season typically lasts through May and historically brings an average of about 18 inches of rainfall, or less than a third of the total in a normal year.


The SFWMD

Quoting 94. Grothar:

Oh, two more things. el Nino will begin to weaken at the end of March and above-average Atlantic season. Case closed!

No, please. El Nino still owes me rain.
2 EF-3's have been confirmed in V.A ith one at 140 and the other 165.
Quoting 5. PedleyCA:


Been slightly under 80 here last 4 days. Normal is 68/45


Yeah, just totally sucks.

Excuse me, there's our tee call.


Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 5h5 hours ago
Wind shear levels were astronomical for Feb. Wed, big reason for Va/NC tornadoes

The tidal basin is also underwater right now as we speak.
Lol what?
Quoting 96. Sfloridacat5:

Link
Sanibel Island Light house where the river feeds into the GOM just west of Fort Myers.



We don't deserve this planet.
Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



This is a huge news story here in Fort Myers. The picture in the link from the Airplane is right off Sanibel Island here in the Fort Myers area.
Old timers have said for decades that people would eventually ruin S.W. Florida...Apparently they are going achieve this....I lived not far from the spot you have pictured.
Quoting 105. washingtonian115:

Lol what?

Hello Washi...Dont Lol, it will happen....:)
Quoting 106. Xyrus2000:



We don't deserve this planet.

You got that right. If ignorance is bliss, why are there so many unhappy people?
Quoting 109. ACSeattle:


You got that right. If ignorance is bliss, why are there so many unhappy people?
In reality, ignorance is the furthest thing from bliss...Most ignorant people end up dead, in prison, or hurting/ killing someone unintentionally. Then karma fulfills its purpose...jmho
SpaceX's Falcon launch set for this evening was aborted with under two minutes to go, and then scrubbed. Too bad; would have been visible all over the state thanks to the frontal passage. Oh, well; next time...
Quoting 99. Minnemike:

sorry for the selfish request, and i know i don't contribute to the blog anymore but i'm looking for a replacement link to get a nicely packaged water vapor loop of the CONUS...


Half your comment didn't even show up because of some sort of strange mangling. Here's the whole thing for those who'd like to help.


Sorry for the selfish request, and I know I don't contribute to the blog anymore but i'm looking for a replacement link to get a nicely packaged water vapor loop of the CONUS.

This link no longer works: Link

This was the link I'd been using for years, from someone in the blog here, and now the server access is forbidden. I don't know other sites that put together the same loop, and have googled several options. NOAA has some odd way of animating where each frame fades out while overlapping, instead of frame-by-frame standard animation. I'm a real goldilocks in the sense I like things a certain way. Link is the imagery I want but really can't stand the animation style. Why am I suddenly forbidden from the main ospo site? Please WU mail any suggestions if any would be so kind, may not be back to blog for a day or two.
Greatly appreciated, Mike.
Quoting 111. Neapolitan:

SpaceX's Falcon launch set for this evening was aborted with under two minutes to go, and then scrubbed. Too bad; would have been visible all over the state thanks to the frontal passage. Oh, well; next time...


Next time would be either tomorrow or Saturday; clear skies for both days AFAIK.
Quoting 101. chasSoCal:


No, please. El Nino still owes me rain.
El NiNO..?
Hi, everybody:

Accuweather is NUTZ!




Trouble is, none of the discos from Houston and San Antonio bear what the graphic says out. Read:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING ACROSS FORT BEND AND SOUTHERN
HARRIS COUNTIES AS SEEN ON THE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADARS. VERY DRY
AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE CREATING LOW TO MID 20 AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. GUSTY WINDS TO 15 TO NEAR 20 MPH PLACES AN
EMPHASIS FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER AWARENESS (SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW). AS NORTHERLY WINDS LAY DOWN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...THIS EVENING`S TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 40S BY
10 PM CDT WITHIN THIS REFORTIFIED DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER PRISTINE DAY
WEATHER-WISE...SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT EARLY DAY NORTHEASTERLIES
VEERING AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AVERAGE MID TO UPPER
30F INLAND/NEAR 50F COASTAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ...WARMING INTO
THE SEASONAL MID TO UPPER 60S.

WEAK 5H RIDGING MOVES DOWN OUT OF THE ROCKY CHAIN AND OVER TEXAS
SATURDAY WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. ESTABLISHED
RETURN FLOW WITHIN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL INCREASE PWATS AS SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW PULLS UP A MORE HUMID VALLEY AIR MASS GOING INTO THE
LAST DAYS OF THE MONTH. THUS...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID WEEKEND
WEATHER...SUBSEQUENT DAYS WARMING BACK INTO THE MEAN UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S OVERNIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY UNDER
MORE OVERCAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER MONDAY AS THE
LOWER 10K FEET SATURATE UP. THE EXTENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
MUCH BETTER IN-LINE AND NOW PROGRESSIVELY PASS A FAR NORTHERN UPPER
LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES (OK, et al.) TUESDAY.
THIS PULLS THE TARGETED HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK A DAY TO TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE CMC VIRTUALLY PROGS THIS AS A DRY FROPA WHILE THE GFS AND
EURO`S RECENT RUNS PLACE IN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. WITH
THE FAR NORTHERN PASSAGE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH...NEAR 1 INCH
PWATS FALL TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES IN THE POST-FRONTAL...85H TEMPS
ONLY FALLING TO SLIGHTLY UNDER 10C WEDNESDAY. TRANSLATES TO
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER EARLY MARCH WEATHER...BUT NOT OVERLY
SO. 31

Likewise:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH...COLD FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR
DRYLINE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE GFS NOW FORECASTING A DEEP CLOSED H500 LOW
TRACKING FROM NE-IA AND THE EURO FORECASTING A WEAKER OPEN H500
TROUGH TRACKING FROM KS-MO. EITHER WAY...THE NORTHERN TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM RESULTED IN LOWERING POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO 20-30 PERCENT. INSTABILITY WITH THIS NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK BELOW 30 KTS SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. FUTURE MODEL CYCLES
SHOULD HELP CLARIFY THE TIMING...LOCATION..AND STRENGTH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT DECREASE MUCH
IF THE WEAKER SYSTEM SIMULATED BY THE EURO VERIFIES...BUT FOR NOW
STUCK WITH A MORE INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
REGARDLESS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.





All in all, it doesn't look to me like they're looking for any really hazardous weather in MY part of Texas. Or does it?
Quoting 76. ricderr:




i just snorted my coke
LOL
Whoops. Removed WVL link.
Quoting 115. pureet1948:

Hi, everybody:

Accuweather is NUTZ for calling for a severe weather outbreak next week in Texas. None of the discos from Houston and San Antonio bear out they say Read:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING ACROSS FORT BEND AND SOUTHERN
HARRIS COUNTIES AS SEEN ON THE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADARS. VERY DRY
AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE CREATING LOW TO MID 20 AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. GUSTY WINDS TO 15 TO NEAR 20 MPH PLACES AN
EMPHASIS FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER AWARENESS (SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW). AS NORTHERLY WINDS LAY DOWN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...THIS EVENING`S TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 40S BY
10 PM CDT WITHIN THIS REFORTIFIED DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER PRISTINE DAY
WEATHER-WISE...SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT EARLY DAY NORTHEASTERLIES
VEERING AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AVERAGE MID TO UPPER
30F INLAND/NEAR 50F COASTAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ...WARMING INTO
THE SEASONAL MID TO UPPER 60S.

WEAK 5H RIDGING MOVES DOWN OUT OF THE ROCKY CHAIN AND OVER TEXAS
SATURDAY WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. ESTABLISHED
RETURN FLOW WITHIN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL INCREASE PWATS AS SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW PULLS UP A MORE HUMID VALLEY AIR MASS GOING INTO THE
LAST DAYS OF THE MONTH. THUS...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID WEEKEND
WEATHER...SUBSEQUENT DAYS WARMING BACK INTO THE MEAN UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S OVERNIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY UNDER
MORE OVERCAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER MONDAY AS THE
LOWER 10K FEET SATURATE UP. THE EXTENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
MUCH BETTER IN-LINE AND NOW PROGRESSIVELY PASS A FAR NORTHERN UPPER
LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES (OK, et al.) TUESDAY.
THIS PULLS THE TARGETED HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK A DAY TO TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE CMC VIRTUALLY PROGS THIS AS A DRY FROPA WHILE THE GFS AND
EURO`S RECENT RUNS PLACE IN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. WITH
THE FAR NORTHERN PASSAGE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH...NEAR 1 INCH
PWATS FALL TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES IN THE POST-FRONTAL...85H TEMPS
ONLY FALLING TO SLIGHTLY UNDER 10C WEDNESDAY. TRANSLATES TO
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER EARLY MARCH WEATHER...BUT NOT OVERLY
SO. 31

Likewise:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH...COLD FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR
DRYLINE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE GFS NOW FORECASTING A DEEP CLOSED H500 LOW
TRACKING FROM NE-IA AND THE EURO FORECASTING A WEAKER OPEN H500
TROUGH TRACKING FROM KS-MO. EITHER WAY...THE NORTHERN TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM RESULTED IN LOWERING POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO 20-30 PERCENT. INSTABILITY WITH THIS NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK BELOW 30 KTS SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. FUTURE MODEL CYCLES
SHOULD HELP CLARIFY THE TIMING...LOCATION..AND STRENGTH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT DECREASE MUCH
IF THE WEAKER SYSTEM SIMULATED BY THE EURO VERIFIES...BUT FOR NOW
STUCK WITH A MORE INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
REGARDLESS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.





All in all, it doesn't look to me like they're looking for any really hazardous weather in MY part of Texas. Or does it?
Quoting 69. NativeSun:

Bloom, I knew Dan quite well when he had his fishing boat on Watson Island and Bayside, if he is smart, he is selling his house to get away from the crowd in Miami, as I will be doing in the near future when my son goes to college, but I will be moving to the Keys and live on the Bayside in Islamorada, and will keep the house in the Falls area, in case we need to leave for a storm.
That's not why he says he's selling it, note.

Depending on how long you live, you may or may not luck out with your real estate strategy before the inevitable crash in prices that will ensue as periodic inundation begins to overwhelm the drainage system and the houses become uninsurable. Good luck with that.
Quoting 93. Grothar:

Big storms next week. Same time, same place
Slight difference possible. Good chance storms will begin Tuesday in the (this week spared) Southern Plains.
Quoting 120. spbloom:

That's not why he says he's selling it, note.

Depending on how long you live, you may or may not luck out with your real estate strategy before the inevitable crash in prices that will ensue as periodic inundation begins to overwhelm the drainage system and the houses become uninsurable. Good luck with that.
Please Bloom, I will be glad to purchase all ocean and bay front properties I can afford at a reduced price due from sea level rise, I have lived on the water for over 50 yrs., and not 1 " of sea level rise in that time where we have our house in the Keys. To much money involved in all this. If their is a crash in property value it will be in many centuries from now, due to a natural rise in sea level due to a warming climate.
123. JRRP
Quoting 72. Gearsts:

All the models have a cold N atlantic for the peak of the season.

yeap
Quoting 120. spbloom:

That's not why he says he's selling it, note.

Depending on how long you live, you may or may not luck out with your real estate strategy before the inevitable crash in prices that will ensue as periodic inundation begins to overwhelm the drainage system and the houses become uninsurable. Good luck with that.
And please don't believe everything you read on the internet. If you live where Dan lives, you would notice the changes to that area of Miami Beach, then you would really understand why he is leaving, and I would too.
125. vis0

Quoting 44. Tazmanian:




Good idea Volcano maybe?
Though on my blog i replied with a more serious explanation, i post this here. Did not The new CBS late night show have some similar loud metallic like but more squelching sound out their office window in Dec? 2015.
Re: Post 115

Are San Antonio and Houston weather forecasters looking for a big severe event to unfold this coming Tuesday?
Quoting 126. pureet1948:

Re: Post 115

Are San Antonio and Houston weather forecasters looking for a big severe event to unfold this coming Tuesday?


I suggest you go to the local NWS site and read the discussion and forecast.
Quoting 128. Bucsboltsfan:



Error
error
Quoting 128. Bucsboltsfan:



I suggest you go to the local NWS site and read the discussion and forecast.



But I just posted those. (see post 115) I read into them that they don't see a major threat for Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, but have this gut feeling I'm missing something. What am I missing?
Quoting 131. pureet1948:




But I just posted those. (see post 115) I read into them that they don't see a major threat for Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, but have this gut feeling I'm missing something. What am I missing?


I'm missing something- if you read it then why are you asking what they are they thinking?
Quoting 114. hydrus:

El NiNO..?


No enio key on this keyboard.
North shore, Oahu, Hawaii, 60 to 70 ft waves.
forth ft ones broke my house when I lived there.

Some pictures and videos on Huffington post.
Link
Well I can see the blog has returned to its normal state. El nino, Global warming stuff,and the occasional troll to mix things up. aww :c
Quoting 133. chasSoCal:



No enio key on this keyboard.


El Niño, I agree with you. It can't be over till we get our share of RAIN...just ain't right...
Quoting 132. Bucsboltsfan:



I'm missing something- if you read it then why are you asking what they are they thinking? Houston dodged a bullet last week, but this coming Tuesday, who knows?



Sorry. Just hope they're right about our next rain event being a marginal one.
Quoting 124. NativeSun:

And please don't believe everything you read on the internet. If you live where Dan lives, you would notice the changes to that area of Miami Beach, then you would really understand why he is leaving, and I would too.


Please do spell it out for us. The article from CNN reported why he was leaving, but you keep dancing around some problem with Miami Beach and change. What change is that, NativeSun? A change so great it would cause you to leave the area no less. What exactly is the problem there if not what has been reported to be the case? Pray tell.
For Tuesday and Wednesday's weather, the sun will burn out. Bulb will be replaced on Thursday.

Hmmm......

000
FXUS64 KHGX 260128
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...01Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE C PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING JUST OFF THE UPPER TX
COAST. MIN TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW LOOK LOWER THAN TODAY WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM 6-7C DOWN TO 3-4C TOMORROW. MAIN CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE TO JUST UPDATE T/TD TRENDS GOING INTO
TOMORROW. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE NEXT MON/TUE AND EVEN
THEN RAIN CHANCES LOOK SMALL.


A little pessimistic about rain, aren't they?



Am I imagining things, or does this storm system look meaner than it appeared on the 18Z GFS run?

Would it be a good idea to shout "Oh, no!" now?
Quoting 139. Naga5000:



Please do spell it out for us. The article from CNN reported why he was leaving, but you keep dancing around some problem with Miami Beach and change. What change is that, NativeSun? A change so great it would cause you to leave the area no less. What exactly is the problem there if not what has been reported to be the case? Pray tell.


You know, it could show the guy in a boat pointing to what used to be his house, permanently inundated by ocean water due to sea level rise, and people like NativeSun would swear up and down that the real reason the guy was leaving was crime rates. :P
Quoting 92. RobertWC:

The Fla water story rolls on -

Florida Officials Drain Lake Full Of %u2018Toilet%u2019 Water To Coast

With tourist season just around the corner, Florida%u2019s beach communities would normally be preparing for a happy, healthy summer. Instead, they%u2019re reeling from polluted water that is likely to inflict severe damage to the local economy and environment.

Lake Okeechobee, a large inland lake in southern Florida, is experiencing its highest water levels in nearly a century due to heavy rains that fell during the month of January. This should not be suprising, because heavy rainfall events are increasing as the planet warms. But after water levels reached a foot above normal, public officials began to worry that the excess water was putting too much stress on the lake%u2019s aging dike. Officials then made the decision to drain the lake out toward Florida%u2019s coasts. There was one problem: Lake Okeechobee%u2019s waters are toxic.

Local industry has long been using Okeechobee%u2019s waters as a dumping ground for an assortment of chemicals, fertilizers, and cattle manure. David Guest, managing attorney of the Florida branch of the environmental law group Earthjustice, called the lake a %u201Ctoilet.%u201D While the pollution was once confined to the lake, it now flows toward Florida%u2019s coastal communities via local rivers. The water, which is flowing out of the lake at 70,000 gallons per second, will soon pollute the ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.


Link


From ole Rick Scott's perspective, business is business, who cares about nature if it doesn't churn out revenue?
Remember, BIG sugar has a stake in this. There are plans that would release over flow from the lake south into the everglades. Environmentalists don't want this either because it would pollute that area. There is no short term solution, as Lake O is mismanaged, and control should revert back to the state.
Quoting 147. Jedkins01:



From ole Rick Scott's perspective, business is business, who cares about nature if it doesn't churn out revenue?
Re: Post 147.

The South Florida Water Management District said back pumping into Lake Okeechobee ended at 5:30 p.m. Sunday. The district had been sending two pumps into Lake Okeechobee.

The district started pumping the water Wednesday evening following the wettest January in south Florida in 25 years. Six inches of rain fell in 24 hours in Glades County.

PREVIOUS STORIES

The Army Corps of Engineers will begin sending damaging amounts of polluted water down the Caloosahatchee River Saturday.

This announcement comes one day after the Corps said it was going to reduce flows this way from 5,000 cubic feet per second to 2,800 feet per second, the Corps said in a release that was sent to media at 5:14 p.m. Friday.

Lake water at these levels kill sea grass and oyster beds and can cripple the local tourism and real estate industries, independent water quality studies show.

Thursday The News-Press also revealed that the South Florida Water Management District is back-pumping polluted land from farms south of Lake Okeechobee
Continued: I guess it's a case of save a few, destroy many?

That water is much higher in nutrients than what is typically found in the lake, which have been in violation of federal standards for decades.

Critics say these water management practices are largely responsible for toxic algal blooms that often plague both the west and east coasts of Florida.

Record rains have not made the situation better as the lake level is rising at the same time the state is back-pumping farm water into Okeechobee.

That water is now increasingly coming to the Southwest Florida coast.Algal blooms fed by nutrients found in these types releases increase the frequency and duration of blooms like red tide, which kills fish, dolphins and manatees and causes respiratory issues in humans.

The state said the pumping was an "emergency" and that it was concerned about tens of thousands of residents living in farming towns such as Clewiston and South Bay.

Water was pulled into the lake starting Wednesday night, although the Water Management District did not announce it had made an "emergency" for nearly 22 hours after the reported emergency started.
quoting 147. Jedkins01,

Great Avatar!!!!
Quoting 122. NativeSun:

Please Bloom, I will be glad to purchase all ocean and bay front properties I can afford at a reduced price due from sea level rise, I have lived on the water for over 50 yrs., and not 1 " of sea level rise in that time where we have our house in the Keys. To much money involved in all this. If their is a crash in property value it will be in many centuries from now, due to a natural rise in sea level due to a warming climate.
By all means ignore the science and take whatever consequences come your way. If you're old enough, it might even work out for you.
Quoting 122. NativeSun:

Please Bloom, I will be glad to purchase all ocean and bay front properties I can afford at a reduced price due from sea level rise, I have lived on the water for over 50 yrs., and not 1 " of sea level rise in that time where we have our house in the Keys. To much money involved in all this. If their is a crash in property value it will be in many centuries from now, due to a natural rise in sea level due to a warming climate.
If you can hold off on those real estate purchases for another decade or two, I think you'll be able to find some amazing bargains; there'll be whole neighborhoods--entire towns, even--listed at cut-rate prices. On the other hand, if you simply *must* invest in Florida real estate today, consider purchasing in places that will remain higher and drier. At the very least, the law of supply and demand will make that land all the more valuable--and if you're really lucky, you may even end up with brand new beachfront property.
dont.forget.cat.7s.neo
Very strong WWB now in progress so now we will wait to see if we a Downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave develops near the Dateline. Reason why this is important is the CFS is seeing this and is ramping up El-Nino starting in July and really takes off come Fall. While all other models show La-Nina. La-Nina would be favored after a strong El-Nino.

@MJVentrice
HUGE signal for La Nina right around the corner via the evolution of a strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave o/the DL pic.twitter.com/sI3gw2Lnsj
7:51am - 26 Feb 16
Quoting 160. tiggerhurricanes2001:

@MJVentrice
HUGE signal for La Nina right around the corner via the evolution of a strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave o/the DL pic.twitter.com/sI3gw2Lnsj
7:51am - 26 Feb 16


There is a big upwelling event about to occur but what maybe interesting going forward is as the cool water tries to upwell it might get retarded by the warming westerly wind anomalies. To me this somewhat seems like 2014 but the opposite effect. Next 3 to 4 weeks is key to the whole year IMO.
Good Morning. The current look and forecast for Conus. High pressure dominates for the time being as we await to see if the models verify for another El Nino low next week:



Quoting 161. StormTrackerScott:



There is a big upwelling event about to occur but what maybe interesting going forward is as the cool water tries to upwell it might get retarded by the warming westerly wind anomalies. To me this somewhat seems like 2014 but the opposite effect. Next 3 to 4 weeks is key to the whole year IMO.

I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.
And the highs for today:
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Quoting 154. spbloom:

By all means ignore the science and take whatever consequences come your way. If you're old enough, it might even work out for you.
Bloom, one day you will understand, and then you can have a good laugh.
Quoting 163. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.


2014 we had record warm anomalies try to surface but easterly trades keep coming thus retarding the warming process. This year it seem the opposite cool water trying to upwell while WWB keep coming. Going to be interesting over the next month to see if a new OKW initiates.
Quoting 161. StormTrackerScott:



There is a big upwelling event about to occur but what maybe interesting going forward is as the cool water tries to upwell it might get retarded by the warming westerly wind anomalies. To me this somewhat seems like 2014 but the opposite effect. Next 3 to 4 weeks is key to the whole year IMO.

On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in seawalls and desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................
Quoting 163. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.
Quoting 163. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.
The Nino is toast, if you want to believe in the Nino lasting through 2016, and basing it on the worst of the worst model for predicting ENSO events, then so be it, but don't get upset when it doesn't materialize. Neutral to Nina conditions in the summer of 2016, extending for 3 yrs. or so.
Quoting 166. StormTrackerScott:



2014 we had record warm anomalies try to surface but easterly trades keep coming thus retarding the warming process. This year it seem the opposite cool water trying to upwell while WWB keep coming. Going to be interesting over the next month to see if a new OKW initiates.

You're not that bad of person. Lol everyone seems to throw shots at you. Yeah, this definitely will influence the level of activity in both basins this hurricane season. I think we have a 50/50 shot at la nina. I say at least an average season in both basins. The rate at which this el nino deteriorates, and a la nina develops will definitely affect our weather worldwide. Interesting 2016 ENSO YEAR.
Quoting 168. weathermanwannabe:

On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................
It will take more than 80 yrs., but eventually it will happen, as a lot of Florida was underwater in the past, and there will also be a time in the future where Miami Beach will be far from the ocean.
Quoting 169. NativeSun:

The Nino is toast, if you want to believe in the Nino lasting through 2016, and basing it on the worst of the worst model for predicting ENSO events, then so be it, but don't get upset when it doesn't materialize. Neutral to Nina conditions in the summer of 2016, extending for 3 yrs. or so.

I doubt it'll continue, I'm just stating facts. Majority of Statistical and Dynamical. models forecast la nina.
Quoting 171. NativeSun:

It will take more than 80 yrs., but eventually it will happen, as a lot of Florida was underwater in the past, and there will also be a time in the future where Miami Beach will be far from the ocean.


Might not take that long on the aquifer issue:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/3/19/1372031/- The-phenomenon-that-can-not-be-spoken-in-Florida-c ontinues-as-salt-water-intrusion-moves-inland


The densely populated megalopolis of South Florida is losing it's water wells as sea water intrudes into the Biscayne Aquifer. Salt water has already moved 6 miles inland in Broward County and is likely to continue to creep westward. Ninety percent of South Florida gets its drinking water from underground supplies, most from the Biscayne aquifer. This inland movement observed in Broward County is due to urban withdrawals from the Biscayne Aquifer, ocean water moving sideways into the aquifer and seepage of saltwater from surface sources.
IF..all the Ice melted............................................ ........................
And if all the ice melts, in 300 years (if I was around), I would invest in dive and fishing charters; all those coastal homes and buildings will make great artificial reefs.................................
none alive today will ever see this happen.
Quoting 168. weathermanwannabe:

On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in seawalls and desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................
FWIW, I--and a growing number of scientists--don't believe South Florida has anywhere closer to 80 years of good living left. A couple of decades at best, especially given that sea walls won't do a thing. South Florida is doomed. Period.
Here is the deal from a recent study on sea level rise:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/sea-levels -are-rising-their-fastest-rate-2000-years

“The big takeaway is that the modern rate of sea level rise in the 20th century is faster than anything we’ve seen in the previous two millennia,” says Benjamin Horton, a Rutgers University, New Brunswick, in New Jersey geologist who helped direct one of the studies. “This isn’t a model. This is data.”

Some of the studies provide a detailed account of changes in sea level and the Antarctic ice sheet, a story embedded in fossils and rocks at the ocean’s edge. They also add to a growing body of research that suggests sea level can change more dramatically over a short time than previously suspected, says Andrea Dutton, a University of Florida in Gainesville geologist and a leading expert on reconstructing ancient sea levels.

180. ariot
Forget all the ice melting. There's enough melt in the pipeline now to upset all the apple carts. We (collectively) are so far out of the margins of reality in terms of economic, political and energy matters that it won't take 80 years to have people moving in large numbers. It's happening elsewhere now, and the systems where it is happening can't handle 5 million or so people who are evacuating from drought and war to multiple countries. Even that is showing tears at the seams. Sometimes I think our policy makers don't even watch an hour of world news during the course of a week. Our future is right there, on the screen.

Now apply that to any region of the US and watch the sparks fly.

All the remaining steps are radical and unlike anything in the recent policy era.
180. ariot
9:01 AM EST on February 26, 2016

Outstanding summary................Reminds me of Alvin Toffler with his Future World from the 70's. The explosion in the global population in recent decades has actually exceeded the readily available natural resources and we are all fighting for the scraps at this point at many levels..........And climate change on top of that is a huge issue.
Quoting 169. NativeSun:

The Nino is toast, if you want to believe in the Nino lasting through 2016, and basing it on the worst of the worst model for predicting ENSO events, then so be it, but don't get upset when it doesn't materialize. Neutral to Nina conditions in the summer of 2016, extending for 3 yrs. or so.
Some people just don't see the light, or in this case the Qazulight.
Concerning sea level rise.

The problem with coastal area is not the actual sea level rise. The problem is that there are very smart people who approve financial transactions. Those people will look at the data and determine that the risk reward is poor. When that happens, you will get a very bad economic situation.

You are already seeing it with the very high insurance rates in coastal Florida. However, this is just the beginning. In other places like the upper Gulf Coast you will see less and less money go into maintaining and improving the oil infrastructure. At some point the competitive advantage, and it is a huge one, will disappear. When that happens you will see a Detroit like result.

By the way, we talk about all the bad things that happened in Detroit and blame it on one favorite whipping boy are another. What really happened was technology, specifically shipping technology removed Detroit's competitive advantage.

While Florida is not really an industrial state, it does have tourism. As a tourist am less and less likely to travel to south Florida. The cost of transport is low enough that I can vacation on the Yucatan, enjoy cleaner beaches and have a good time. Not only that, the last time I was in the Keys, 2008, the reefs looked like a moon scape, although I will admit the rest of the Caribbean isn't doing so well either.
Re: Sea level rise in the Florida Keys.

Apparently there is a long, reliable record of sea level measurements in the Keys. I can't post the NOAA chart from my tablet, but here's the link:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrend s_station.shtml?stnid=8724580

and here's the summary:

The mean sea level trend is 2.33 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.15 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1913 to 2014 which is equivalent to a change of 0.77 feet in 100 years.

Sorry if the actual measurements contradict an individual's eye-balled assessment.
Quoting 177. LargoFl:

none alive today will ever see this happen.


alrighty then...let's just all party...have a good time...and screw future generations.....i mean...we won't be alive....who cares about those poor suckers.......tough luck you guys......we're too busy sipping our highballs and dancing to our favorite beat...

A lot of people are concerned about sea level rise in the Keys. Here's a link to a good summary by the Union of Concerned Scientists:

http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/ 2015/10/encroaching-tides-florida-keys.pdf

The opening paragraph:

By 2045, the sea level in the Florida Keys will rise 15 inches, according to a projection by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (SFRCCC Sea Level Rise Working Group 2015). As a result, the city of Key West—the economic powerhouse of Monroe County, Florida—would see more than 300 tidal flooding events per year within the lifetime of today’s 30-year mortgages. The flooding that wreaks peri- odic havoc on the city’s small business hubs like Duval Street, for example, would occur regularly. Key West already suffers from flooding during extreme high tides, with water washing into streets, businesses, and homes, particularly when those tides combine with rainfall (Sweet et al. 2014).





An El Niño’s effect on weather can be complex, and in some cases didn’t behave as predicted. In drought-ravaged California, for example, meteorologists thought the ocean temperature phenomenon probably would bring above-average rain to the southern part of the state in January, with a lesser chance of precipitation in the north.

Instead, the opposite happened — southern California stayed pretty much bone dry with just three days of rainfall, while northern California got the coveted rain and snow in the mountains.

But in any case, it’s time to start bidding farewell to El Niño. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest status report notes that while still strong, it’s on the wane, and by May or June, temperatures should be back to the norm.


In fact, NOAA says there’s a possibility that during the fall, we may actually see Pacific Ocean temperatures swing in the other direction, so that we get an La Niña — that is, an unusually cold east-central Equatorial Pacific.


La Niña tends to bring nearly opposite effects of El Niño to the United States. According to the Weather Channel, that could mean that the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley will be wetter than average, while the southern part of the United States will be drier. Temperature-wise, an area stretching from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains will be cooler than usual, while the South, the Ohio Valley an the mid-Atlantic states will see above-average temperatures.

While La Niña doesn’t occur as often as El Niño, it often lasts longer, persisting or occurring for two or more years.The most recent La Niña was a relatively weak event in 2011-12. Here’s a historical chart.
Quoting 168. weathermanwannabe:

On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in seawalls and desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................

Mother Nature? Seriously? Just ignore that annoying lil' 'ole ***** and she'll go away, where she belongs.
Quoting 184. FLwolverine:

Re: Sea level rise in the Florida Keys.

Apparently there is a long, reliable record of sea level measurements in the Keys. I can't post the NOAA chart from my tablet, but here's the link:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrend s_station.shtml?stnid=8724580

and here's the summary:

The mean sea level trend is 2.33 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.15 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1913 to 2014 which is equivalent to a change of 0.77 feet in 100 years.

Sorry if the actual measurements contradict an individual's eye-balled assessment.


And it's always important to remember that while they give you a linear trend, sea level rise is not linear nor is the trend predictive.
Quoting 173. weathermanwannabe:



Might not take that long on the aquifer issue:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/3/19/1372031/- The-phenomenon-that-can-not-be-spoken-in-Florida-c ontinues-as-salt-water-intrusion-moves-inland


The densely populated megalopolis of South Florida is losing it's water wells as sea water intrudes into the Biscayne Aquifer. Salt water has already moved 6 miles inland in Broward County and is likely to continue to creep westward. Ninety percent of South Florida gets its drinking water from underground supplies, most from the Biscayne aquifer. This inland movement observed in Broward County is due to urban withdrawals from the Biscayne Aquifer, ocean water moving sideways into the aquifer and seepage of saltwater from surface sources.
This has been happening for a long time, but is not due as much to sea level rise as overpopulation, and the over use of our fresh water supply.
Here is the NOAA link for sea level trends for North America.


NOAA Sea Level Trends

Most areas of the US have a trend of 0-1 foot per century rise similar to pre-industrialization rates since the end of the last Ice Age. Other areas have a different rate due to subsidence or uplift.

I'm curious how other entities arrive at such radically different sea level rise rates.

2016, the Year the Global AGW induced forcing's bring the Pain.



Published on Feb 25, 2016

Dr. Michael Mann, Earth System Science Center-Penn State University/Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change (2nd edition) joins Thom. Scientists Are Officially Freaked Out By Climate Change! It's a been a weird winter in many parts of America - but nothing compared to the wild winter the Arctic is having. Is this a sign that we've passed or are about to pass another global warming tipping point?

For more information on the stories we've covered visit our websites at thomhartmann.com - freespeech.org - and RT.com. You can also watch tonight's show on Hulu - at Hulu.com/THE BIG PICTURE and over at The Big Picture YouTube page. And - be sure to check us out on Facebook and Twitter!





Nit picking warning!!!!

"Strong divergence--evident in the wind contours parting as they approach New England--suppo"


Wind contours parting is not divergence it's diffluence. Many early undergraduate met students get nailed on this mistake.

But to muddy the situation further, they ARE correlated!




Battle of Evermore just finished Pat, long day of LZ A-Z has begun! Appropriate for the meme! Nice & sunny in S C IL, one of the stations just broke freezing, 30.3"+, winds lighter from the NW. Most are not fully back on line post storm, guess 45-50 gusts were too much. May have repeat next week.
This type of set up would be bad for the U.S.

Just to add a little to the discussion of waterfront property ownership... I've met a few people who have about a 10 year window for how they want to spend the rest of their lives. They don't really care about tsunamis or earthquakes or sea level rise, because they think, what are the odds of something serious happening in 10 years? If they also don't care about leaving money to heirs, then they may as well live wherever they want - and a few of these people do live at 1' elevation.

If I had a long life expectancy and owned Florida waterfront right now, I'd be thrilled that there are still people willing to buy.
200. vis0

Quoting 124. NativeSun:

And please don't

believe everything you read on the internet. If you live where Dan

lives, you would notice the changes to that area of Miami Beach, then

you would really understand why he is leaving, and I would
too.



Quoting 139.
Naga5000:




Please do spell it out for us. The article
from CNN reported why he was leaving, but you keep dancing around some problem
with Miami Beach and change. What change is that, NativeSun? A change so great
it would cause you to leave the area no less. What exactly is the problem there
if not what has been reported to be the case? Pray tell.

As to Qu124,


Baah-REAKING NEWS,  nature does not
discriminate

Then as to another comment made by NativeSun
"
If their is a crash in property value it will be in many
centuries from
now, due to a natural rise in sea level due to a warming
climate
.
"

Good you understand the globe is
warming.
The error i see is maybe NativeSun does
not want to take responsibilities for NativeSun's generations errors (again
passing the buck...yes the first letter is B!)

If the
warming is happening and NativeSun thinks most of it is natural that
means some aGW component is adding to that warming.

Why not start
engaging the locomotives breaks now 3 mile away from the train bridge which you
can see the train bridge being washed away by raging floods instead of engaging
the breaks 50 feet from the cliff?

This aGW is going to take some
time to stop,  

THINK
if humanity would have taken aGW more
seriously decades ago we could have youngsters thinking up new ideas/inventions
TODAY, we could have stricter laws in place now and more cars on the road using
more "ecogreen" engines and you'd have more money to spend on buying those beach
front properties...though if aGW were slowed down a bit some would not be
moving.

Thinking of creating an on-line game like MONOPOLY but
call it    
Mamananoploy     
MAMANANA
POLY (washi115 stop singing that "tune"
)

The game would be an on-line and we'd have players
like
Hydrus, BBrian, Dr. Rood vs. Mr. Limbaugh,
host of climatescepticsparty, Mr.
Bastardi.

You win
lose money by buying property (properties values rise or fall due to what real
weather is happening as to the property bought,.
 i.e. you buy an island in
SWestern Pacific and no flooding occur you earn "mucho dinero" if flooding
happens even after you spent money to build a wall around the island you lose
big time, Si?

You have to pay for traveling around the board (detours
due to weather inconveniences cost you more)and your health improves if CO2 or
pollutants go down or deteriorate is CO2 or pollutants go up..

(a timer
via servers adds to the virtual game property deterioration due to rust,
termites, flies, mildew, cracks in walls on a timed schedule based on weather /
climate of the area in real life where your
MAMANAPOLY property exists just as in
real life things need upkeep.

This ain't your father Monopoly, its
Mamanoploy (have

Me?
i play the part of Jim Cantore,
reporting LIVE from serious weather events so if you see me arriving near your
property SELL!!! (& since its really "vis0" HIDE THE FOOD!)Enthusiastic crowd played by STS.All number crunching and official stats done by Webber, Taz and aquak9 LTD.

Games art?...
CREDIT FOR IMAGES (though i edited both images, used the paint brush
known as Art Lic.)

(remember most images i use are w/o permission nor do i visit their sites,
so be cautious when going to those sites)

(Monopoly character:: http://the3dagency.com/hasbro/)
(mother nature painting:: http://www.thegreatillusion.com/mother.html)
 

Proceeds go to Portlight,
(announcer:: available at walgreens)
interlude


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
We're going to come back to this in 3-4 weeks when the downwelling oceanic KW attenuates in the eastern Pac. Bad CFS

img src="
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
HUGE signal for La Nina right around the corner via the evolution of a strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave o/the DL

forecastguy ‏@forecastguy 3h3 hours ago
@MJVentrice Or a temporary signal from #Winston and #Yalo that does not progress eastward?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
@forecastguy Winston/Yalo promoted westerlies about the equator no? So those cyclones were trying to counter this beast.
Quoting 199. annabatic:

Just to add a little to the discussion of waterfront property ownership... I've met a few people who have about a 10 year window for how they want to spend the rest of their lives. They don't really care about tsunamis or earthquakes or sea level rise, because they think, what are the odds of something serious happening in 10 years? If they also don't care about leaving money to heirs, then they may as well live wherever they want - and a few of these people do live at 1' elevation.

If I had a long life expectancy and owned Florida waterfront right now, I'd be thrilled that there are still people willing to buy.( I still hopefully have a long life expectancy, and don't plan on selling our waterfront property, and will be leaving it to my son when I pass on. )


all quiet for now
Quoting 197. dabirds:

Battle of Evermore just finished Pat, long day of LZ A-Z has begun! Appropriate for the meme! Nice & sunny in S C IL, one of the stations just broke freezing, 30.3"+, winds lighter from the NW. Most are not fully back on line post storm, guess 45-50 gusts were too much. May have repeat next week.


..the pain of War cannot exceed, the woe of aftermath'


We watching the progs on next week closely here fo sure.

Quoting 196. georgevandenberghe:

Nit picking warning!!!!

"Strong divergence--evident in the wind contours parting as they approach New England--suppo"


Wind contours parting is not divergence it's diffluence. Many early undergraduate met students get nailed on this mistake.

But to muddy the situation further, they ARE correlated!


Of course, you are correct, George. My bad--and I know better! :-) Here's a short, classic writeup by Eric Thaler (NWS/DEN) on the difference. In a nutshell, diffluence is only one part of divergence, and you can actually have diffluent and convergent flow at the same time.

Diffluence and Divergence Are Not Synonyms
NativeSun.. please watch the italic/quote thing - thank you.
Quoting 191. canyonboy:

Here is the NOAA link for sea level trends for North America.


NOAA Sea Level Trends

Most areas of the US have a trend of 0-1 foot per century rise similar to pre-industrialization rates since the end of the last Ice Age. Other areas have a different rate due to subsidence or uplift.

I'm curious how other entities arrive at such radically different sea level rise rates.




Well their webpage does give an indication as to why there are different estimations.


Products
The mean sea level (MSL) trends measured by tide gauges that are presented on this web site are local relative MSL trends as opposed to the global sea level trend. Tide gauge measurements are made with respect to a local fixed reference level on land; therefore, if there is some long-term vertical land motion occurring at that location, the relative MSL trend measured there is a combination of the global sea level rate and the local vertical land motion. The global sea level trend has been recorded by satellite altimeters since 1992 and the latest calculation of the trend can be obtained from NOAA's Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, along with maps of the regional variation in the trend. The University of Colorado's Sea Level Research Group compares global sea level rates calculated by different research organizations and provides detailed explanations about the issues involved.

Notices
June, 2014 -- The three Alaskan stations at Yakutat (9453220), Cordova (9454050), and Valdez (9454240) appear to show increasingly non-linear relative sea level changes. This could be due to changing vertical tectonic motion in the area or increasing melting of the glaciers in the vicinity and the resulting elastic rebound of the earth's crust. Previously, separate mean sea level trends were calculated for the data before and after an earthquake in February 1979. To obtain a better estimate of the more recent mean sea level trend, separate trends are now recalculated for the data before and after an earthquake in March 1988.
Quoting 177. LargoFl:

none alive today will ever see this happen.
..not sure if that's optimistic or pessimistic!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
211. vis0
...On a NativeSun comment earlier on the blogbyte...

Quoting 139. Naga5000:




Please do
spell it out for us. The article from CNN reported why he was leaving,
but you keep dancing around some problem with Miami Beach and change.
What change is that, NativeSun? A change so great it would cause you to
leave the area no less. What exactly is the problem there if not what
has been reported to be the case? Pray tell.
Quoting 145. Xyrus2000:



You know, it could show the guy in a boat pointing to what used to be his house, permanently inundated by ocean water due to sea level rise, and people like NativeSun would swear up and down that the real reason the guy was leaving was crime rates. :P
hmmm, you have a double point.
See, if one treated their (property) home as some treat today their (planet) Home, that person is involved in a crime known as vandalism.



vandalism[van-dl-iz-uh m]




noun

1. deliberately mischievous or malicious destruction or damage of property: vandalism of public buildings.



2. the conduct or spirit characteristic of the Vandals.


3. willful or ignorant destruction of artistic or literary treasures.


4. a vandalic act.

...courtesy of Dictionary.com

 Here, some are worried that some people will ruin their neighborhood, yet they engage in ruining the world?   






Isn't that "speeeeshall"!



Quoting 207. annabatic:

NativeSun.. please watch the italic/quote thing - thank you.
No Problem
Quoting 165. NativeSun:

Bloom, one day you will understand, and then you can have a good laugh.
You're making an incorrect assumption about my age. But then it matches most of your other assumptions, so what the hell.