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Winston's 180 mph Winds in Fiji: Southern Hemisphere's Strongest Storm on Record

By: Jeff Masters 6:47 PM GMT on February 20, 2016

The strongest storm in recorded history for the Southern Hemisphere--mighty Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston--smashed through the islands of Fiji Friday night and Saturday morning with top sustained winds estimated at 180 mph (note: Winston's top winds were originally estimated at 185 mph, but these were reduced to 180 mph in post-analysis.) These winds vaulted Winston into a tie as the third strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history (see Figure 3). Winston began its march at Category 5 strength through the Fiji Islands beginning at 18 UTC (1 pm EST) Friday. At that time, Winston had 165 mph winds as it moved westwards over the small Fiji island of Vanua Balavu (population 1,200). The island's airport was in the western eyewall of Winston, and at 18 UTC measured 10-minute average winds of 106 mph (roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.) Winston continued to intensify, then crashed ashore on the Fiji island of Koro (population 4,500) at peak strength--sustained winds of 185 mph--near 02 UTC Saturday (9 pm EST Friday.) This is the third strongest landfall by any tropical cyclone, globally, in recorded history. Only Super Typhoon Haiyan's 190 mph winds at landfall in 2013 in Samar, Philippines, and Super Typhoon Meranti's 190 mph winds at landfall in Itbayat Island, Philippines have been rated higher. After likely demolishing most of Koro with a long period of sustained winds of EF4 tornado strength, Winston's northern (weaker) eyewall brushed the south coast of Fiji's second largest island, Vanua Levu. The city of Nambouwalu on the south coast of Vanua Levu reported 10-minute sustained winds of 121 mph at 06 UTC Saturday (roughly equivalent to Category 4 winds of 135 mph using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.) Winston then wobbled more to the west-southwest, possibly due to interaction with the high terrain of the two largest islands of Fiji. Maintaining winds of 180 mph, Winston slammed ashore along the northeast coast of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu in Rakiraki, a district of close to 30,000 people, near 07 UTC Saturday. The eye of Winston travelled westwards along the north coast of Viti Levu for two hours, pounding the entire north coast of the island with the strongest part of the storm, the southern eyewall. When Winston finally emerged from the island near 09 UTC Saturday, the storm was slightly weaker, but still had Category 5 winds of 160 mph. At that time, the edge of Winston's south eyewall moved over the second largest city in Fiji, Lautoka (population 80,000). The top sustained winds at the Lautoka tide station were 83 mph, gusting to 110 mph. These 10-minute average winds imply that at least Category 2 hurricane conditions (95 - 100 mph 1-minute averaged winds) were likely experienced there (thanks go to wunderground member Carnivorous for this link.) Damage to Fiji is going to be severe to catastrophic, but it will be several days before the true scope of the destruction is realized.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing Tropical Cyclone Winston at 07 UTC Saturday, February 20, 2016. At the time, Winston was making landfall on Fiji's main island of Viti Levu as a Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a 915 mb central pressure.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Winston taken at 0300 UTC February 20 (10 pm EST February 19), 2016. At the time, WInston was a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds, and its eye was over Koro Island on Fiji. Image credit: NASA.

Winston the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere
Winston's 180 mph sustained winds at its peak intensity at 00 UTC February 20 are tied for the highest for any Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The other 180 mph cyclones were Cyclone Zoe of 2002 and Cyclone Monica of 2006. Winston's lowest central pressure as estimated by the Fiji Meteorological Service was 915 mb at 06 UTC February 20. This ranks Winston as the 29th most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere by pressure. The record lowest pressure is 890 mb by Cyclone Zoe of 2002. Winston's top winds were higher than its central pressure might imply because it was a relatively small cyclone, so the wind-generating difference in pressure was packed into a small area. Winston joins a very select club of Category 5 storms ever recorded to churn the South Pacific waters east of Australia. Since satellite records began in 1970 (with high-quality satellite images only available since 1990), just eleven Cat 5s (including Winston) have been observed in the South Pacific east of Australia. Only two of the ten previous Cat 5s have made landfall as a Category 5. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Pam, which was at its peak strength, with 165-mph Category 5 winds, when it passed over several small Vanuatu Islands to the north of Efate Island, Vanuatu's most populous island. The other Category 5 landfall was by Cyclone Zoe of 2002, which made a direct hit as a Category 5 storm on several small islands in the Temotu Province of the Solomon Islands with a total population of 1700. There was one other close call, though: the eye of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Olaf passed 15 miles east of Ta'u, American Samoa, on February 16, 2005, but caused minimal damage.


Figure 3. The most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. Note that Super Typhoon Haiyan was originally assessed to have 195 mph winds at landfall by JTWC, but these were reduced to 190 mph after a post-season reanalysis. Also, Hurricane Camille's winds at landfall have also been reduced in a recent reanalysis, from 190 mph to 175 mph.


Figure 4. Track of all Category 5 storms in the South Pacific (east of 135°E) since satellite records began in 1970. The strongest tropical cyclones in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s records are Zoe (2002/2003) and Monica (2006), which topped out with 180 mph winds. Image credit: Michael Lowry, TWC.

Forecast for Winston
Winston has moved past Fiji, and is no longer a high wind threat to the islands. Some residual heavy rains will continue over the western portion of Viti Levu on Saturday, though. Winston will likely weaken to Category 4 strength and head southwards during the remainder of the weekend, with no other islands in its path, thankfully. The cyclone may restrengthen slightly on Monday before a more significant weakening takes hold.

Fiji's tropical cyclone history
Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Evan of December 17, 2012 walloped Fiji with sustained winds of 135 mph, as the storm's southern eyewall--the most intense part of the storm--brought hurricane conditions to a long stretch of the north and west coasts of Fiji's main island, Viti Levu. According to a database maintained by NOAA's Coastal Service Center, Evan was the strongest tropical cyclone on record to affect Fiji's main island, with records going back to 1941 (however, more accurate satellite records extend back to only about 1990.) Evan did $109 million in damage (2012 dollars) to Fiji, making it the second most destructive storm in their history. The most devastating cyclone to affect Fiji in recorded history was Category 2 Cyclone Kina of January 1993, which killed 23 people and did $100 million in damage (1993 dollars.) The only deadlier storm than Kina was Category 3 Cyclone Eric of 1985, which made a direct hit on the capital of Suva, killing 25.


Figure 5. Tracks of all Category 1 and stronger tropical cyclones to pass within 100 miles of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu since 1941. Evan of 2012 (Category 4 with 135 mph winds) was the strongest cyclone on record to affect Fiji, but Winston of 2016 was much stronger. Image credit: NOAA's Coastal Service Center.

Links
Radar images from the Fiji weather service
Long radar loops of Winston
Satellite imagery from NOAA/NESDIS.
Fiji weather observations from wunderground.
Long Himawari-8 satellite animation in MP4 or animated GIF format.
Fiji Met Service Facebook page.


Cyclone Winston: Incredible conditions in Savusavu, Fiji, February 20, 2016. (Thanks go to wunderground member barabmz for posting this video in the comments.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the frequent updates on Winston. My heart and thoughts go out to the people of Fiji. Today will be a difficult day of shock and assessment. Sadly, confirmed reports of the first fatality and severe damage are appearing in some media reports.

A little closer to home, the monthly precipitation total in Seattle is up to 4.54" for February (normal is 3.5), 11.97" since Jan 1 (should be around 8), and a remarkable 36.36" since October 1 (normal = 23.3"). This puts us at our 2nd record wettest water year to date. We would need to hit 37.33" to break the record Oct - Feb period. Our really wet months typically start in October or November. As such, our water year is measured from Oct - Sept.

Cliff Mass has an excellent summary of our wet winter here.
Incredible storm !
I cannot begin to imagine 180 mph winds......

Thanks for the post, Dr. Masters.
Winston continued to intensify, then crashed ashore on the Fiji island of Koro (population 4,500) at peak strength--sustained winds of 185 mph--near 02 UTC Saturday (9 pm EST Friday.) This is the second strongest landfall by any tropical cyclone, globally, in recorded history. Only Super Typhoon Haiyan's 190 mph winds at landfall in 2013 in Samar, Philippines have been rated higher.

Winston is the second strongest landfalling system on record in the world by which measure? Surely by winds if Haiyan is #1, and I'm not sure of Patricia's at landfall but is the Labor Day storm at 892 mb still the most intense landfalling storm?

And 5 mph isn't much of a difference but man Winston look just as healthy if not more so striking Viti Levu as it did over Koro.
roaring
Thanks dok!
I have an American friend in Fiji, just hope she is okay. This is just awful.
I think Hurricane David made landfall with 175mph in Dominican Republic
Quoting 7. JRRP:

I think Hurricane David made landfall with 175mph in Dominican Republic

Thought 1977 Anita might have made the list might make the list. It hit at 175 mph...I think...:)

Quoting 8. hydrus:

Thought 1977 Anita might have made the list might make the list. It hit at 175 mph...I think...:)



ok
Quoting 9. JRRP:


ok
ok what.? am i wrong.?
Quoting 3. win1gamegiantsplease:

Winston continued to intensify, then crashed ashore on the Fiji island of Koro (population 4,500) at peak strength--sustained winds of 185 mph--near 02 UTC Saturday (9 pm EST Friday.) This is the second strongest landfall by any tropical cyclone, globally, in recorded history. Only Super Typhoon Haiyan's 190 mph winds at landfall in 2013 in Samar, Philippines have been rated higher.

Winston is the second strongest landfalling system on record in the world by which measure? Surely by winds if Haiyan is #1, and I'm not sure of Patricia's at landfall but is the Labor Day storm at 892 mb still the most intense landfalling storm?

And 5 mph isn't much of a difference but man Winston look just as healthy if not more so striking Viti Levu as it did over Koro.



In the blog it says "These winds make Winston tied for the second strongest landfalling tropical cyclone."
In case anyone may have missed it, here is my first ever weather broadcast for the Broadcast Meteorology Club here @ NCSU I completed early this past week. Although I'm certainly seeking a route in research, I thought that joining this club would not only look good on a resume, but would be a fantastic first-hand experience to see what broadcasting is like, & of course I wanted to have some fun in the process. I hope I don't sound too boring, lol. BTW, all of my meteorology buddies refer to me as "Climo", because they think I'm absolutely nuts wrt ENSO & intraseasonal-interdecadal variability hence the "Climo's corner" segment..

Link
  Thanks for the Updates Dr. Masters.........
Quoting 7. JRRP:

I think Hurricane David made landfall with 175mph in Dominican Republic



Yes, you are correct. Both David and Anita were 175 mph at landfall. I will update the graphic.

Dr. M.
Quoting 12. Webberweather53:

In case anyone may have missed it, here is my first ever weather broadcast for the Broadcast Meteorology Club here @ NCSU I completed early this past week. Although I'm certainly seeking a route in research, I thought that joining this club would not only look good on a resume, but would be a fantastic first-hand experience to see what broadcasting is like, & of course I wanted to have some fun in the process. I hope I don't sound too boring, lol. BTW, all of my meteorology buddies refer to me as "Climo", because they think I'm absolutely nuts wrt ENSO & intraseasonal-interdecadal variability hence the "Climo's corner" segment..

Link


Great job! You nailed it. Well done.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters! Hoping for the least damage and deaths in Fiji.

 No Rain in our Forecast....
Thank you for your excellent updates Dr. Masters! I always enjoy reading them.

I have watched a real-time weather station from Lautoka since yesterday. It showed sustained winds of 72 knots gusting to 96 knots. The pressure stayed around 965 hpa for almost an hour. I am not sure if these are Category 3 conditions like the blog post says. Just click on "Details" and then select "12 hours" to view the data: http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?s tation_number=200856
Quoting 3. win1gamegiantsplease:

Winston continued to intensify, then crashed ashore on the Fiji island of Koro (population 4,500) at peak strength--sustained winds of 185 mph--near 02 UTC Saturday (9 pm EST Friday.) This is the second strongest landfall by any tropical cyclone, globally, in recorded history. Only Super Typhoon Haiyan's 190 mph winds at landfall in 2013 in Samar, Philippines have been rated higher.

Winston is the second strongest landfalling system on record in the world by which measure? Surely by winds if Haiyan is #1, and I'm not sure of Patricia's at landfall but is the Labor Day storm at 892 mb still the most intense landfalling storm?

And 5 mph isn't much of a difference but man Winston look just as healthy if not more so striking Viti Levu as it did over Koro.



Yeah I mean, we are talking about comparing estimates. It's unfortunate we don't have recon in the part of the world, so it's the best we can get. But I could name countless times where winds and pressure were changed quite substantially by the NHC after recon went in, especially in terms of pressure with stronger systems.

These TC forecasting centers in this part of the world seem to often underestimate how low the pressure is with high ends systems. Look at how low the actual pressure got in Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Patricia, and othera, and compare those systems with their wind speed. In reality, if the NHC was based in the west and south Pacific, I am fairly confident that with recon, Haiyan would have been more like max sustained winds of 200-210 with pressure of at 875-885. Regarding Winston, the windspeed is reasonable estimate, but I would think with pressure more like 885-895. Though it's odd they dropped the estimated winds to 180 at landfall, not that it matters much. But based on what? Core structure, cloud tops, and estimated eye temp difference and eye sinking looked even better at landfall than earlier. I think Winston probably actually peaked at landfall, something that is a rare feat among TC's.

At the end of the day though, there has to be some standard, and while satellite estimates continue to improve, they still have some issues. Also, it often still comes down to judgment calls, which is true even for real instrumentation evidence, since official measurements aren't infallible to bias and error either.

I won't get too flustered about it though, it's just my two cents on the matter.
Quoting 18. Carnivorous:

Thank you for your excellent updates Dr. Masters! I always enjoy reading them.

I have watched a real-time weather station from Lautoka since yesterday. It showed sustained winds of 72 knots gusting to 96 knots. The pressure stayed around 965 hpa for almost an hour. I am not sure if these are Category 3 conditions like the blog post says. Just click on "Details" and then select "12 hours" to view the data: http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?s tation_number=200856


Thanks, I included the link, and mentioned that these were likely Category 2 hurricane conditions.

Dr. M.
Quoting 19. Jedkins01:



Yeah I mean, we are talking about comparing estimates. It's unfortunate we don't have recon in the part of the world, so it's the best we can get. But I could name countless times where winds and pressure were changed quite substantially by the NHC after recon went in, especially in terms of pressure with stronger systems.

These TC forecasting centers in this part of the world seem to often underestimate how low the pressure is with high ends systems. Look at how low the actual pressure got in Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Patricia, and othera, and compare those systems with their wind speed. In reality, if the NHC was based in the west and south Pacific, I am fairly confident that with recon, Haiyan would have been more like max sustained winds of 200-210 with pressure of at 875-885. Regarding Winston, the windspeed is reasonable estimate, but I would think with pressure more like 885-895. Though it's odd they dropped the estimated winds to 180 at landfall, not that it matters much. But based on what? Core structure, cloud tops, and estimated eye temp difference and eye sinking looked even better at landfall than earlier. I think Winston probably actually peaked at landfall, something that is a rare feat among TC's.

At the end of the day though, there has to be some standard, and while satellite estimates continue to improve, they still have some issues. Also, it often still comes down to judgment calls, which is true even for real instrumentation evidence, since official measurements aren't infallible to bias and error either.

I won't get too flustered about it though, it's just my two cents on the matter.


When I see Haiyan and "895 mb" I scoff, that thing was sub 890 but we have no way to prove it.
For me personally,it is NEVER about the numbers, the records nor the BS that all that brings. Its about the IMPACT to the Human Population.

Thats where the mustard meets da dog.


Everytime.
Agreeing with win1gamegiantsplease... Haiyan was the most nearly perfect, incredible looking "hurricane" I've ever seen... completely annular and monstrous. How anything could be stronger than it was just seems wrong. :o

Jo

Quoting 21. win1gamegiantsplease:



When I see Haiyan and "895 mb" I scoff, that thing was sub 890 but we have no way to prove it.
I agree..I believe Wilma was the same..it looked like science fiction on sat pics..I am actually glad they were not in that monster when that was happening.
Quoting 15. StAugustineFL:



Great job! You nailed it. Well done.


Climo? :D

Maybe you should start a show and call it Meteorology Street. "Today's weather forecast is brought to you by El Nino, the pacific decadal oscillation, and the equation for adiabatic lapse rate!"

You could have the whole gang. Dvorak Bird. Cumulupagus. Might be a hit. Maybe even make your own doll, Tickle-Me Climo. "HA HA HA! No La Nina this year! HA HA HA!"

Sorry...in a bit of a silly mood right now. Spring like weather does that to me. :)
Quoting 17. PedleyCA:


 No Rain in our Forecast....



Not getting my hopes up yet but several storms per GFS into California starting like the 25h Feb, into the first week of March. Hopefully El Nino has not shot his wad.
Quoting 22. Patrap:

For me personally,it is NEVER about the numbers, the records nor the BS that all that brings. Its about the IMPACT to the Human Population.

Thats where the mustard meets da dog.


Everytime.


I can't argue with that, though the stats often go hand in hand. Haiyan was awful whether it was 895 or 875. Hopefully Winston doesn't turn out to be as bad.
Quoting 23. flibinite:

Agreeing with win1gamegiantsplease... Haiyan was the most nearly perfect, incredible looking "hurricane" I've ever seen... completely annular and monstrous. How anything could be stronger than it was just seems wrong. :o

Jo




No doubt Haiyan was the strongest storm ever recorded. Pressure and wind speeds were underestimated, maybe considerably. Satellite representation compared to any other storm told the story. Surely stronger than Patricia's winds and the pressure was likely the lowest ever. But conjecture is all that will ever be.

Quoting 26. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Not getting my hopes up yet but several storms per GFS into California starting like the 25h Feb, into the first week of March. Hopefully El Nino has not shot his wad.
That one Week in January was pretty much it. 2.85" and 3.28" so far this year.
Quoting 22. Patrap:

For me personally,it is NEVER about the numbers, the records nor the BS that all that brings. Its about the IMPACT to the Human Population.

Thats where the mustard meets da dog.


Everytime.


So true, we've seen majors make landfall and not cause death or widespread destruction and we've seen tropical storms claim scores and produce widespread damage through epic flooding. Perfect example was Patricia compared to what happened to Dominica with a system that wasn't even classified at landfall last season.
Quoting 25. Xyrus2000:



Climo? :D

Maybe you should start a show and call it Meteorology Street. "Today's weather forecast is brought to you by El Nino, the pacific decadal oscillation, and the equation for adiabatic lapse rate!"

You could have the whole gang. Dvorak Bird. Cumulupagus. Might be a hit. Maybe even make your own doll, Tickle-Me Climo. "HA HA HA! No La Nina this year! HA HA HA!"

Sorry...in a bit of a silly mood right now. Spring like weather does that to me. :)


I don't understand why I was quoted since I was giving an "atta boy". Perhaps your silly mood? Webber did a great job. Shall we be expecting Xyrus2000 video's anytime soon?

-NAO
33. vis0

Still Caribbean picking up from last years flooding.  Now we see
Islands
on the other side of the globe getting ready in starting to figure out
how to start clean up. Hope the more frequent disastrous storms to
extreme weather swings droughts to deluges (you see more frequently on
news reports or barbamz and other WxU worldwide weather watchers) wakes people
up.  If not soon
sadly when these storms begin to hit "ones" home or country and the
costs of fixing up instead of preventing hits ones front door i hope one
stays safe then think was it worth saving some bucks now to loose
(hopefully only) more bucks later.


In the big picture not a top of the list thing but i credit:: hydrus for 1977 Anita reference and focus, back on the important::

(deliberate double post)
Still Caribbean picking up from last years flooding.  Now we see Islands
on the other side of the globe getting ready in starting to figure out
how to start clean up. Hope the more frequent disastrous storms to
extreme weather swings droughts to deluges (you see more frequently on news reports or barbamz and other WxU worldwide weather watchers) wakes people up.  If not soon
sadly when these storms begin to hit "ones" home or country and the
costs of fixing up instead of preventing hits ones front door i hope one
stays safe then think was it worth saving some bucks now to loose
(hopefully only) more bucks later.

How does such a strong storm hit with such little damage?.You would think a 95mph hurricane hit Fiji from the pictures.
Quoting 29. PedleyCA:


That one Week in January was pretty much it. 2.85" and 3.28" so far this year.

I feel your pain. Friday my rain gauge recorded 4.92 inches in a 24 hour period, after a week of steady rain every day. And that isn't even a record. Jist normal "not-so-rainy season" weather.
As I was watching the video, I was thinking, "Man, how dumb...They should have evacuated if they knew a Cat 5 was coming."

....Then it hit me
Quoting 34. MeteorologistTV:

How does such a strong storm hit with such little damage?.You would think a 95mph hurricane hit Fiji from the pictures.
As seems to happen with almost every landfalling tropical cyclone, first news/pictures, because they generally come from lesser hit areas, seldom if every reflect the true extent and depth of the damage. That usually comes a day or two later--and it's usually shocking.
Quoting 29. PedleyCA:


That one Week in January was pretty much it. 2.85" and 3.28" so far this year.



Yup, 3 substantial storms first week of January with a few under 1/10th inch of rain sandwiched in between them. 1 storm to end on the 31st got me to just over 7" rain in January 2016. February been bone dry with 1 storm 0.04" a few days ago. Hoping for a Miracle March! At least where the water is stored has been getting near normals of rain and snow.
Ugh....this makes me want to vomit. That video from Savusavu is the pier/yacht club where I was not more than a year and half ago. So many friends, acquaintances....An incredible little city. Godspeed to everyone there. :*(
Quoting 31. StAugustineFL:



I don't understand why I was quoted since I was giving an "atta boy". Perhaps your silly mood? Webber did a great job. Shall we be expecting Xyrus2000 video's anytime soon?




I could put one of mine up. Well the only one of mine up, I did the local weather when I was 7 or 8 and it's on VHS at my folks place somewhere. But I'd like to live on with a little bit of my dignity.
Quoting 38. Neapolitan:

As seems to happen with almost every landfalling tropical cyclone, first news/pictures, because they generally come from lesser hit areas, seldom if every reflect the true extent and depth of the damage. That usually comes a day or two later--and it's usually shocking.


Yeah, it appears a lot of the videos we've seen so far are coming from areas that didn't get into the eye wall of the Cyclone. Any of the areas directly impacted by the southern eye wall will have significant damage. You wouldn't even be able to safely make a video while experiencing the southern eye wall of Cyclone Winston.
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it appears a lot of the videos we've seen so far are coming from areas that didn't get into the eye wall of the Cyclone. Any of the areas directly impacted by the southern eye wall will have significant damage. You wouldn't even be able to safely make a video while experiencing the southern eye wall of Cyclone Winston.
May not be able to reach them.
45. vis0
roughdraft postedclicked wrong button i guess
46. vis0

Quoting 38. Neapolitan:

As seems to happen with almost every landfalling tropical cyclone, first news/pictures, because they generally come from lesser hit areas, seldom if every reflect the true extent and depth of the damage. That usually comes a day or two later--and it's usually shocking.
and if i may add the present mindset of many news watchers (maybe even some news sites) is change the headlines every other day. By the time reporters can reach the areas that had roads destroyed its post-storm day 3 (as with 2015 Patricia in Mx.) and that will be overshadowed by another "fresher" news worthy (to some news organizations & some watchers) story and if that next story gets more attention in the public the worse damaged areas due to WINSTON are not seen by the amount of people that saw the outer edge of the damaged areas.

Sent an idea to google & yahoo ~6 years ago in where people can drag & drop any news title/headline into a slide in tab from googles/yahoo's news page in where any updates on that selected new story remains as the top story IN THAT TAB even if it is no longer on googles or yahoos top headlines section. In this manner readers can easily follow the latest on that story as the TAB blinks when an update is created. In this manner instead of having to scroll back to the visited pages which odds are have changed or discontinued the original link the readers sees the blinking tab and clicks on that. (anyone wants to pass it to them again go ahead)

In reality its also the lazy brain of today's society -i'm at times a culprit- why say that?
as i remember grandparents forcing their hard working fingers to turn real newspaper pages 5, 10, 20 pages to stay up with yesterdays top news stories, so why not click a keypad 2 or 6 times to yesterdays headlines on pg 6 of a search?.

Not to be confused with personalizing an google account i mean linking to other news sources updates via googles main page so the google main page display your saves as an equally important headline next to googles top new headline.

instead of tomorrow seeing

PRIMARY RESULTS only
if you choose to follow Washington Post as to WINSTON you read 
PRIMARY RESULTS | USA Today  ----  HURR WINSTON new images of more devastation | Washington Post

BACK to sPACs 2016 WINSTON
Quoting 31. StAugustineFL:



I don't understand why I was quoted since I was giving an "atta boy". Perhaps your silly mood? Webber did a great job. Shall we be expecting Xyrus2000 video's anytime soon?




It was done to be humorous, not to be condescending. Sheesh. I thought a little levity might brighten up what has been a rather down day on the blog.

Edit: As far as being a broadcaster, I have neither the looks, time, nor talent to do be one. I'll be in the dark back closet writing the code and running the infrastructure.
Quoting 47. Xyrus2000:



It was done to be humorous, not to be condescending. Sheesh. I thought a little levity might brighten up what has been a rather down day on the blog.
Exactly..I know I get the blues when I see peoples lives ripped apart.
BREAKING NEWS!!! Clin-Ton won Nevada!!! Which means Epic Bernie Sanders is likely in 2nd place!!!
50. bwi
Just for storm geeks, I was right (I think) about there having been a severe cyclone in 1965. Old timers on Kadavu talked about it, and it's referenced in:

M. J. Cooper (1965) Destruction of Marine Flora and Fauna in Fiji Caused by the Hurricane of February 1965 Pacific Sciences 20:137-141

which I found a reference to in Proceedings of the 11th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop (California, 1994) edited by Caroline Issacs and Vera Tharp

Not seeing it in the track maps above...
Quoting 50. bwi:

Just for storm geeks, I was right (I think) about there having been a severe cyclone in 1965. Old timers on Kadavu talked about it, and it's referenced in:

M. J. Cooper (1965) Destruction of Marine Flora and Fauna in Fiji Caused by the Hurricane of February 1965 Pacific Sciences 20:137-141

which I found a reference to in Proceedings of the 11th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop (California, 1994) edited by Caroline Issacs and Vera Tharp

Not seeing it in the track maps above...
Yep..I was surprised how many there were. I knew they could be hit, but not that often.
Hope the People of Fiji were hunkered down ..

Went through Camille in Biloxi, Ms in 69 .. many will relive this day every year for the rest of their lives .. It causes a form of PTSD just like soldiers who have been in wars have ..
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Feb 19 Pennsylvania, USA
JAMSTEC shows flip to La Nina by fall, N Atlantic cooling, Cool enso, warm MDR atlantic =Big ACE hurricane season
Quoting 52. whitewabit:

Hope the People of Fiji were hunkered down ..

Went through Camille in Biloxi, Ms in 69 .. many will relive this day every year for the rest of their lives .. It causes a form of PTSD just like soldiers who have been in wars have ..


How old were you when it hit?
Quoting 54. win1gamegiantsplease:



How old were you when it hit?


I was 20 .. in the Air Force stationed at Keesler AFB ..
Quoting 55. whitewabit:



I was 20 .. in the Air Force stationed at Keesler AFB ..


Must be so vivid after all this time. Awful how that stretch of coastline saw two 920 mb and under storms in a span of under 40 years. Makes me feel fortunate for what I have, living in a hurricane prone area myself.
And so it begins!!!!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/E CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202315Z - 210115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
MOSTLY MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND PROBABLY CONFINED IN BOTH AREA AND
TIME...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE DEEPENING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...WITHIN AN APPARENT ZONE OF BROADER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION BASED AROUND 700 MB. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THIS ZONE...AT LEAST NORTH OF A VICHY/FARMINGTON LINE...IS
ELEVATED ABOVE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT STILL
CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CAPE WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE 00-03Z
TIME FRAME.

BENEATH 40-50 KT WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MORE SUSTAINED STORMS. THIS
THREAT IS PROBABLY HIGHEST WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR WEST THROUGH
EAST OF VICHY...INTO AND EAST OF THE FARMINGTON AREA. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED INSTABILITY...AND CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY
MAXIMIZED.

WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
REGION.

..KERR/HART.. 02/20/2016


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 39399271 39179129 38688970 37918958 37469046 37759149
37859252 38319292 39399271
Quoting 38. Neapolitan:

As seems to happen with almost every landfalling tropical cyclone, first news/pictures, because they generally come from lesser hit areas, seldom if every reflect the true extent and depth of the damage. That usually comes a day or two later--and it's usually shocking.
Was about to say early reports are going [pretty logically] to come from areas with less damage [and for example, still w/ power and internet access]. I want to see Kobo... and the earlier hit island with which communications were lost early on.

Thinking back about our recent hurricane encounter; the worst pictures, those of Crooked Island, didn't make it to the internet for nearly 2 weeks. With island nations, you can't even get to the affected areas until the sea state is sufficiently calm to voyage there. Airports are often non-functional for the first 72 - 96 hours post-landfall.

I have a feeling we will be seeing worse imagery. I just hope the loss of life remains at the one posted. We were fortunate locally in October; I wish that same good fortune to Fiji post-Winston.
Quoting 51. hydrus:

Yep..I was surprised how many there were. I knew they could be hit, but not that often.
FIJI - The Bahamas of the South Pacific

You get my drift .....
Quoting 53. Gearsts:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Feb 19 Pennsylvania, USA
JAMSTEC shows flip to La Nina by fall, N Atlantic cooling, Cool enso, warm MDR atlantic =Big ACE hurricane season

You can't help but say that this weakening el nino looks a tad bit modoki. Is it common for weakening el ninos to look a little modoki in appearance.
@ tiggerh....

That 2004 Modiki wasn't all that friendly to the ATL, especially FL ....
The few pics I've looked at so far show tree damage consistent with cat 2 [maybe low end cat 3] winds; larger limbs and weaker trees down; smaller limbs snapped off. Reminds me of Frances damage here.



BTW, is there some reason why it's taking so long for posts to load? I waited 9 minutes after I posted this message to be able to modify it ....
Quoting 61. BahaHurican:

@ tiggerh....

That 2004 Modiki wasn't all that friendly to the ATL, especially FL ....

Thatis true. I actually consider 2004 lanfalls to Florida worse than 2005 IMO. Florida got hit literally back to back. But i mean if u think about it, the way Nino 1+2 is falling, this may soon or already be a modoki. JMO.
A quite beautiful day today with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs right around 70F. Beginning to wonder about the flood potential next week. Maybe even a few severe storms Tuesday night-Wednesday? Will wait and see.
Doomed El Faro captain said "clock is ticking" in final call

"We had a hull breach, a scuttle blew open during a storm," Davidson told an operator in a follow-up call minutes later, his voice calm but urgent. "We have water down in three holds with a heavy list. We've lost the main propulsion unit, the engineers cannot get it going."

The operator asked the captain for his satellite phone number and to spell the name of the vessel, at which point Davidson sounded frustrated saying "the clock is ticking" and that he needed to speak to a company official. He can also be heard calling to crew members to ask what they're seeing down below.


Link

Quoting 52. whitewabit:

Hope the People of Fiji were hunkered down ..

Went through Camille in Biloxi, Ms in 69 .. many will relive this day every year for the rest of their lives .. It causes a form of PTSD just like soldiers who have been in wars have ..

I was in Mobile in 69 for Camille and in Polplarville,Ms for Frederick when it came into Mobile .....   Dad and Mom moved at the right times   :-)

Quoting 60. tiggerhurricanes2001:


You can't help but say that this weakening el nino looks a tad bit modoki. Is it common for weakening el ninos to look a little modoki in appearance.
I see that I got back to Anchorage just in time... nasty winter storm coming. I'm at the "higher elevations" too...

* SNOW...15 TO 30 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 5 TO 15 INCHES ELSEWHERE. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

Quoting 63. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Thatis true. I actually consider 2004 lanfalls to Florida worse than 2005 IMO. Florida got hit literally back to back. But i mean if u think about it, the way Nino 1+2 is falling, this may soon or already be a modoki. JMO.
Is not and won't be.
I thought that during El Niño years the western Pacific was cooler than normal as the warm surface water moved eastwards. During this El Niño we have had record strong systems hit Vanuatu (Cyclone Pam) and now Fiji (Cyclone Winston). Is such strong tropical cyclone activity in the southwestern Pacific something new for El Niño years?
Quoting 67. Gearsts:



Ooh thanks!!!
How high up are you Dakster? At least the days are a decent length now.
Most of us know we're poking at the dragon, but sometimes we fail to grasp just how big the dragon is. This one made me gulp -

Colossal Antarctic ice-shelf collapse followed last ice age

"This continent-enveloping ice sheet extended all the way to the continental shelf, and in western Antarctica it filled the entire Ross Sea basin." ............................ In western Antarctica, the Ross Sea is characterized by a continental shelf that extends nearly 1,000 miles from the coast and is as much as 3,500 feet deep. Anderson said the geologic record shows that as recently as 18,000 years ago the entire Ross basin was filled with ice that was so thick and heavy it was grounded on the seafloor all the way to the edge of the continental shelf.

"We found that about 10,000 years ago, this thick, grounded ice sheet broke apart in dramatic fashion," Anderson said. "The evidence shows that an armada of icebergs—each at least twice as tall as the Empire State Building—was pushed out en masse. We know this because this part of the Ross Sea is about 550 meters (1,804 feet) deep, and the icebergs were so large and so tightly packed that they gouged huge furrows into the seafloor as they moved north."


Link
Why are tropical cyclones in the Pacific ocean stronger than those in the Atlantic or Indian ocean? Is the water temperature higher in the Pacific?
The Gaurdian's current coverage of Fiji:

Link
Quoting 12. Webberweather53:

In case anyone may have missed it, here is my first ever weather broadcast for the Broadcast Meteorology Club here @ NCSU I completed early this past week. Although I'm certainly seeking a route in research, I thought that joining this club would not only look good on a resume, but would be a fantastic first-hand experience to see what broadcasting is like, & of course I wanted to have some fun in the process. I hope I don't sound too boring, lol. BTW, all of my meteorology buddies refer to me as "Climo", because they think I'm absolutely nuts wrt ENSO & intraseasonal-interdecadal variability hence the "Climo's corner" segment..

Link


From an outsider's point of view:

Great Job!

Tips:

1] Practice losing the 'ums, uhs, ahs'. Having that presentation control will help you everywhere you go!

2] When on camera, try to look into it a little more often, and every now and then crack a smile ... as though you and your viewer shared a secret.

3] You might take a single semester speech course. It is not that your vocals are bad, but they could easily be substantially shined up. Again such a thing will help you through-out your life.

and then,

4] I don't know how the markets work, but that is certain to change, at any rate; I don't see why you couldn't market your weather to any city in the country... especially with the availability of web cams: All the materials you need are right in front of you to put it together for Boston, Chicago, Seattle ... though it would be able to crack the smaller markets more easily of course.

Seriously: Your club could probably through together a corporation offering a variety of weather web-casting products... of varying lengths, to a variety of audiences, delivered on a variety of platforms. Doing it by bitcoin might make getting your money easier, but you'd have to have someone on the marketing team ready to make it easy for your customer to get and use bitcoin.

Oh, and thanks! I don't see much on here (understandably] about things to come in my corner of the country.... Nice to be able to hope for more mild weather here!

Best of Luck!
Quoting 74. hotroddan:

Why are tropical cyclones in the Pacific ocean stronger than those in the Atlantic or Indian ocean? Is the water temperature higher in the Pacific?


Atmospheric Pressure in the pacific is lower than the Atlantic and yes Warmer waters.
Quoting 53. Gearsts:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Feb 19 Pennsylvania, USA
JAMSTEC shows flip to La Nina by fall, N Atlantic cooling, Cool enso, warm MDR atlantic =Big ACE hurricane season


Scott? What do you think ?
Quoting 54. win1gamegiantsplease:



How old were you when it hit?


Every year I get depressed a couple of weeks before the anniversary .. I saw way too much .. dead bodies and animals floating in the gulf .. only a small portion of all the sadness I would ever tell anyone .. it effected all of us that were there .. we were the groups that actually went and helped the people living there ..

No one knew the name of it PTSD till just a few years ago .. I fully understand what soldiers in war zones go through .. mine was just from a different cause then war ..

WU has actually helped me cope .. that's why I have been here so long .. I have had a running blog since 2005 .. all of my blogs are still here I have never deleted any of them .. a few are missing because of a WU glitch that erased a bunch of things ..
Quoting 77. stormchaser19:



Atmospheric Pressure in the pacific is lower than the Atlantic and yes Warmer waters.
Thanks! I knew the waters are slightly warmer but, I didn't know that the pressure is lower. Interesting! :)
Kevin Anderson talks about poking the dragon, and he doesn't pull any punches -
Going Beyond "Dangerous" Climate Change

1:39 hour clip

Published on Feb 9, 2016

Date: Thursday 4 February 2016
Time: 6.30-8pm
Venue: Old Theatre, Old Building

Despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature increase at or below 2 degrees Celsius. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upward sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change.

Kevin Anderson will address the endemic bias prevalent amongst many of those building emission scenarios to underplay the scale of the 2°C challenge. In several respects, the modeling community is actually self-censoring its research to conform to the dominant political and economic paradigm. However, even a slim chance of 'keeping below' a 2°C rise now demands a revolution in how we consume and produce energy. Such a rapid and deep transition will have profound implications for the framing of society, and is far removed from the rhetoric of green growth that increasingly dominates the climate change agenda.

Kevin Anderson (@KevinClimate) is Professor of Energy and Climate Change at the University of Manchester.

Quoting 72. BaltimoreBrian:

How high up are you Dakster? At least the days are a decent length now.


I only live 600' up, but I am above the cloud bank about as often as we are below it.

Yeah, the days are pretty decent, doesn't get pitch black out until almost 7pm... Of course it doesn' t get light out until after 8am.
Quoting 79. Tazmanian:




dont get him going please


Let's censor things we don't like because only I matter.
  Sure is Busy in here....
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:

  Sure is Busy in here....

ya
This might be the most interesting Hydrology section to a Seattle NWS Discussion I've seen. A flood warning issued for a river below flood stage? Yet another interesting aspect of our wet winter...

SEDIMENTATION IN THE WHITE RIVER NEAR PACIFIC HAS REDUCED THE RIVER`S CAPACITY TO CARRY MODERATE VOLUMES OF WATER WITHOUT FLOODING PROBLEMS OCCURRING. THE LONGSTANDING OFFICIAL FLOOD FLOW ON THE WHITE RIVER IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED TO BE REACHED WHEN OUTFLOW FROM THE UPSTREAM MUD MOUNTAIN DAM REACHES 8000 CFS. HOWEVER...FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE TOWN OF PACIFIC THIS WET SEASON WITH FLOWS OF AS LITTLE AS 4000 CFS. OUTFLOW AT MUD MOUNTAIN DAM WAS NECESSARILY INCREASED YESTERDAY TO 4700 CFS TO MAINTAIN THE UPSTREAM RESERVOIR`S CAPACITY TO ABSORB INFLOW FROM FUTURE RAINSTORMS AND PREVENT EVEN WORSE DOWNSTREAM FLOODING AT A LATER TIME. HOWEVER BASED ON HISTORY THIS WINTER...THE 4700 CFS FLOW WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS NEAR PACIFIC. DESPITE THIS BEING BELOW THE OFFICIAL FLOOD FLOW...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE REACH OF THE WHITE RIVER NEAR PACIFIC. CONSULTED EARLIER TODAY WITH CORPS OF ENGINEERS...WHO SAID THE 4700 CFS OUTFLOW FROM MUD MOUNTAIN DAM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

Fiji damage pics.

Link
Obviously Winston was a very intense storm, but ranking this storm as number 2 is probably meaningless, unless we get accurate measurements from Fiji. When we discuss top wind speed at landfall, we have to also present error bars. If two storms are separated by only 5 mph but the error bars are 20-30 mph, then we have a tie. In the list of top wind speeds (Figure 3) only the Atlantic storms and STYs Megi and Joan were likely aircraft measured. The rest are satellite measurements and likely have rather large error bars.
Signs of spring all over, quinces n forsythia blooming, plum trees too. Nettles popping up, things are really getting growing here in Acme wa.

Yeeee-ha!

Quoting 38. Neapolitan:

As seems to happen with almost every landfalling tropical cyclone, first news/pictures, because they generally come from lesser hit areas, seldom if every reflect the true extent and depth of the damage. That usually comes a day or two later--and it's usually shocking.


Yeah people were saying the same nonsense with Charley, Katrina, and Haiyan. Then the horror started pouring into media later on and it shut up the nay sayers real quick.
Quoting 91. plantmoretrees:

Signs of spring all over, quinces n forsythia blooming, plum trees too. Nettles popping up, things are really getting growing here in Acme wa.

Yeeee-ha!




We are definitely seeing signs of spring here in Florida such as the grass growing back, flowers blooming, and insects are showing up including wasps and bees for the first time since November. I'm surprised there would be signs of spring that far north already.

Stop making us jealous with all that nice property, lol.
Quoting 28. DeepSeaRising:



No doubt Haiyan was the strongest storm ever recorded. Pressure and wind speeds were underestimated, maybe considerably. Satellite representation compared to any other storm told the story. Surely stronger than Patricia's winds and the pressure was likely the lowest ever. But conjecture is all that will ever be.


Yeah and the damage aftermath to the Philippines speaks for itself, looked more like a nuclear strike than a bad storm. When you consider that it has a history of frequent category 3-4 systems and people are used to it, yet Haiyan made previous impacts to the island nation pale in comparison.
Quoting 93. Jedkins01:



We are definitely seeing signs of spring here in Florida such as the grass growing back, flowers blooming, and insects are showing up including wasps and bees for the first time since November. I'm surprised there would be signs of spring that far north already.

Stop making us jealous with all that nice property, lol.


Yeah spring is a little too early, got down to 20° last march, that can do some serious damage if things start growing too soon. As to the beautiful land; in my early 20's I started dreaming of buying an old neglected farm and returning a portion of it to its natural forested state… with some interesting non-natives thrown in. As frugal, hardworking artisans, my wife and I have been making that dream a reality for 13 years. Acorns I started and twiggy seedlings I dug out of ditches have trunks over a foot wide, its really great to see.
Yes, but don't forget that Haiyan's main impact in Tacloban was through the considerable storm surge due to the coastline topography combined with the low lying land. Not saying that it was not an exceptional storm, just that its destruction was exacerbated due to topographic factors laying it open to the massive surge generated across shallow bays. Those films from that storm were terrifying.

Quoting 94. Jedkins01:



Yeah and the damage aftermath to the Philippines speaks for itself, looked more like a nuclear strike than a bad storm. When you consider that it has a history of frequent category 3-4 systems and people are used to it, yet Haiyan made previous impacts to the island nation pale in comparison.
Quoting 80. whitewabit:



Every year I get depressed a couple of weeks before the anniversary .. I saw way too much .. dead bodies and animals floating in the gulf .. only a small portion of all the sadness I would ever tell anyone .. it effected all of us that were there .. we were the groups that actually went and helped the people living there ..

No one knew the name of it PTSD till just a few years ago .. I fully understand what soldiers in war zones go through .. mine was just from a different cause then war ..

WU has actually helped me cope .. that's why I have been here so long .. I have had a running blog since 2005 .. all of my blogs are still here I have never deleted any of them .. a few are missing because of a WU glitch that erased a bunch of things ..


Well, you just move forward, I've seen what most just think about, here's the answer, God put you here to serve, we're only here a short time, make the best out of it, you only have one chance!
Good morning abroad, and thanks for the concise summary on Winston, doc. Unfortunately more dire photos of Winston's aftermath now begin showing up:

Monish Nand @MonishNand 3 hours ago
The following images were taken by the NZ Defence Airforce and were taken in Koro, Lau, Taveuni and Rabi. #TCWinston.





Original source is the Facebook site of Fijian Government.

Photo Gallery at one glance
The following images were taken in Koro, Lau, Taveuni and Rabi and parts of the Eastern and Northern Division.
The devastation of the damage to homes etc is enormous and a relief team that comprises of military personnel, health, rehab personnel are now on standby to provide relief support.
The Prime Minister Hon. Voreqe Bainimarama has called on all Government agencies and personnel to prioritise the deployment of personnel to these communities to provide relief support and assistance. He has advised all agencies in charge of relief efforts to ensure that all possible options are looked at to ensure that an immediate response is provided.
These images were taken by the NZ Defence AirForce.
The mission of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston Situation Report No. 1 (as of 21 February 2016)
Death toll now at 6.


Detailed report in English from Fijian TV.
101. JRRP
negative IOD means active wave train ??

Winston should start recurving south now. Otherwise the storm would ran into Vanuatu which really doesn't need any of this kind after Pam. (Source for updates)


Winston's path of destruction. Storm is now near where it once was born.
Quoting 68. Dakster:

I see that I got back to Anchorage just in time... nasty winter storm coming. I'm at the "higher elevations" too...

* SNOW...15 TO 30 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 5 TO 15 INCHES ELSEWHERE. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.




Build a snowman for the snow god!
104. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA rose another couple of points :

58% of Total Capacity
81% of Historical Avg. For This Date

UK model it's showing La Nina for the start of the season, with above normal MDR SST.


Fiji: Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston Situation Report No. 1 (as of 21 February 2016)

from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

• On 20 and 21 February Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston cut a path of destruction across Fiji’s islands blowing off roofs, bringing down trees and powerlines, and flooding rivers.

• At its peak, the Cyclone was estimated by the Fiji Met Service to have sustained winds of 230kmph, gusting to 325 kmph making it one of the most severe cyclones ever to hit the South Pacific.

• Six people have been confirmed dead.

• 150 houses have been confirmed as destroyed in the Eastern Division and a further 60 damaged.

• A 30 day State of Natural Disaster has been declared and a nation-wide curfew is currently in force.

• Schools have been closed for a week.

Situation Overview

On 20 and 21 February Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston cut a path of destruction across Fiji’s islands blowing off roofs, flooding rivers and bringing down trees and power lines. At its peak, the Cyclone was estimated to have sustained winds of around 230kmph, gusting to 325 kmph making it one of the most severe cyclones ever to hit the South Pacific. The cyclone was so strong that it destroyed weather data loggers in many affected areas. The Fiji Government has confirmed that six people are dead. Early reports from the Eastern Division suggest extensive damage, particularly in the Lomaiviti Group. Power is out across most of the country. A curfew remains in place across the country to allow emergency services to clear roads and work on restoring power supplies.

Communications are down in many affected areas, particularly in the West, and this is slowing the collection of impact data. Aerial surveillance of the affected region has begun using a New Zealand Defence Force P3 Orion aircraft. Australian military assets are also on standby if neede
Quoting 106. stormchaser19:

UK model it's showing La Nina for the start of the season, with above normal MDR SST.

Yep...and cool water in the Gulf of Guinea...Will likely be a busy season.
109. MahFL
Quoting 108. hydrus:

Yep...and cool water in the Gulf of Guinea...Will likely be a busy season.


Bring it on !
Quoting 92. Jedkins01:



Yeah people were saying the same nonsense with Charley, Katrina, and Haiyan. Then the horror started pouring into media later on and it shut up the nay sayers real quick.

I remember that the afternoon after Andrew, the then governor of Florida (was it Crist?) saying that it looked like they had dodged a bullet. By the next morning, it was becoming clear that that was not the case.
111. flsky
Quoting 64. Tcwx2:

A quite beautiful day today with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs right around 70F. Beginning to wonder about the flood potential next week. Maybe even a few severe storms Tuesday night-Wednesday? Will wait and see.

This doesn't mean anything if you don't state the location.
According to a study Florida has gained 200,000 new residents combined for 2014 and 2015.Should be fun errr I mean interesting...if and when the time comes for Florida......
Usually anyone rooting for any Hurricane Calamity has NEVER seen it wholesale.

When the winds die down and the rain stops....,

The actual recovery begins,

and for some, that can take a decade or more.

Semper Fi'



A Patrap wunderground archived entry
Quoting 109. MahFL:



Bring it on !
Hello Mah...What part of Florida do you live.?
Quoting 80. whitewabit:



Every year I get depressed a couple of weeks before the anniversary .. I saw way too much .. dead bodies and animals floating in the gulf .. only a small portion of all the sadness I would ever tell anyone .. it effected all of us that were there .. we were the groups that actually went and helped the people living there ..

No one knew the name of it PTSD till just a few years ago .. I fully understand what soldiers in war zones go through .. mine was just from a different cause then war ..

WU has actually helped me cope .. that's why I have been here so long .. I have had a running blog since 2005 .. all of my blogs are still here I have never deleted any of them .. a few are missing because of a WU glitch that erased a bunch of things ..


Sorry you had to go through all that. But thank you for serving.
Quoting 108. hydrus:

Yep...and cool water in the Gulf of Guinea...Will likely be a busy season.

GFS the outlier here, almost every model agree with the transition to La Nina.
Cyclone Winston: The devastating aftermath
NZ Herald, By Amelia Wade, Cherie Howie, Matthew Theunissen, Anna Leask, Lynley Bilby, 5:00 AM Monday Feb 22, 2016
Fiji's national curfew will be lifted today and all public transport services will resume - but the clean-up is just beginning for the island nation that was slammed by a category 5 cyclone over the weekend.
Up to 10 people are believed dead and a further seven are missing at sea after Cyclone Winston struck, according to latest reports from the Fiji Broadcasting Service.
The new agency said the Government had confirmed 10 people had died in the western division as a result of the cyclone.
Two of the dead drowned during storm surges and four were killed after being hit by flying debris. One man died after his house collapsed on top of him.
The broadcasting service said seven of the dead were from Ra, one was from Nadi and one was from Lautoka.
Fears were held for seven fishermen from the Yasawa Islands who were reported missing at sea. They had gone out on Friday and had not been heard from since.
More than 4000 people were staying in 68 evacuation centres throughout Fiji. ...

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 110. ACSeattle:


I remember that the afternoon after Andrew, the then governor of Florida (was it Crist?) saying that it looked like they had dodged a bullet. By the next morning, it was becoming clear that that was not the case.
Lawton Chiles.
Quoting 117. barbamz:

Cyclone Winston: The devastating aftermath
NZ Herald, By Amelia Wade, Cherie Howie, Matthew Theunissen, Anna Leask, Lynley Bilby, 5:00 AM Monday Feb 22, 2016
Fiji's national curfew will be lifted today and all public transport services will resume - but the clean-up is just beginning for the island nation that was slammed by a category 5 cyclone over the weekend.
Up to 10 people are believed dead and a further seven are missing at sea after Cyclone Winston struck, according to latest reports from the Fiji Broadcasting Service.
The new agency said the Government had confirmed 10 people had died in the western division as a result of the cyclone.
Two of the dead drowned during storm surges and four were killed after being hit by flying debris. One man died after his house collapsed on top of him.
The broadcasting service said seven of the dead were from Ra, one was from Nadi and one was from Lautoka.
Fears were held for seven fishermen from the Yasawa Islands who were reported missing at sea. They had gone out on Friday and had not been heard from since.
More than 4000 people were staying in 68 evacuation centres throughout Fiji. ...



Those 7 men that went fishing had to be from some isolated village that didn't receive any warnings of the storm. I can't see anyone being crazy enough to go fishing when the strongest cyclone in history is about to hit.
Quoting 108. hydrus:

Yep...and cool water in the Gulf of Guinea...Will likely be a busy season.
CFS also shows the Atlantic La niña and that's why it has this.
Quoting 119. Sfloridacat5:


Those 7 men that went fishing had to be from some isolated village that didn't receive any warnings of the storm. I can't see anyone being crazy enough to go fishing when the strongest cyclone in history is about to hit.

Wondered about that, too. Indeed article says they are from Yasawa Islands (sparcely populated) which are in the northwest of Viti Levu. Hope they'll be found safe.
All fisherman know when a storm is coming, as its not like a sneak attack.

They may have been trying to reach a safer harbor for their vessels. Im fairly sure a experienced crew would know a cyclone is coming.

Their approach is kinda hard to hide been my sperience.

Quoting 113. Patrap:

Usually anyone rooting for any Hurricane Calamity has NEVER seen it wholesale.

When the winds die down and the rain stops....,

The actual recovery begins,

and for some, that can take a decade or more.

Semper Fi'



A Patrap wunderground archived entry


I;ve seen it wholesale and retail. And everything in between. Some of us never truly recover, even decades later.
124. MahFL
Quoting 114. hydrus:

Hello Mah...What part of Florida do you live.?


Orange Park, NE FL.
125. MahFL
Quoting 122. Patrap:

All fisherman know when a storm is coming, as its not like a sneak attack.


They probably did a risk assessment on what they had endured before, the assessment looks like it was a bad one, and they paid with their lives. Also of course they likely did not have a smart phone and access to even one sat pic of the monster, also of course they may not have understood said sat pic.
Quoting 122. Patrap:

All fisherman know when a storm is coming, as its not like a sneak attack.

They may have been trying to reach a safer harbor for their vessels. Im fairly sure a experienced crew would know a cyclone is coming.

Their approach is kinda hard to hide been my sperience.


Yep..Old timers where I grew up on the gulf knew by the slowed swell count and decreased wave period on the beach..When wind is brisk out of the S or SW, squall line with rapid wind shift...You know this, many here may not.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 FEB 2016 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 17:39:10 S Lon : 172:45:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 945.1mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -34.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.6 degrees

************************************************* ***



128. MahFL
As a side note, it's the 119th story on Yahoo world news...

(Source Tropical Tidbits) Looking at the fresh GFS 12z run (above 24 hours out) I get the impression that Winston's sharp turn to the south could be further delayed for at least half a day. Should still occur though.
Quoting 120. Gearsts:

CFS also shows the Atlantic La niña and that's why it has this.

Hoping for a recurve year..If the the Bermuda High is stretched E-W near the U.S. East Coast, there will be trouble.
131. MahFL
In Fiji only 483 people of of the nations 900,000 evacuated, so that shows you most people are used to sheltering in place and seeing whats left after the storm passed.
One story I tell when I speak is the evening of Katrina's landfall, round 9pm I was lighting 3 tiki torches along the fence line by the street, when a crackling noise caught my attention towards the corner.

I called Nova and She and I walked toward the sound and She stopped dead still in her tracks. And then I did as well when I saw what She saw.

Hundreds if not thousands of those large Winged red brown cockroaches creeping along,all migrating West. It was down right creepiest thing I have ever witnessed.

They were all coming from the 17th St. Canal breach a mile East, running from the rising water there.

I wouldn't know of the breach till the afternoon the next day.

Those images stay with one too.
133. xcool
what about ecmwf seasonal forecast mslp hmm ?
134. xcool
brb
Winston has used up a bit of the potential it had.
Here is Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Atlantic.
Without modern technology, no one would have known the strongest tropical cyclone in history was about to hit.

compare 2015/16 same date


Quoting 138. Sfloridacat5:

Without modern technology, no one would have known the strongest tropical cyclone in history was coming.


o know u know its coming its just that by then its likely too late to do anything but seek safe haven
Quoting 139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare 2015/16 same date




MDR warmer this year.
Quoting 97. trunkmonkey:



Well, you just move forward, I've seen what most just think about, here's the answer, God put you here to serve, we're only here a short time, make the best out of it, you only have one chance!


From something like that you never move forward its always somewhere in the back of your mind .. every Hurricane/ typhoon brings back those memories .. you try to cover them but they won't go away ..

For years I never understood the feelings that happen every August .. or every time an area has a comparable storm .. you grieve with those who are going through what you did its something you can't over come .. you see the faces and the sounds from so long ago they are etched in your memory .. they never fade away !!
Quoting 141. tiggerhurricanes2001:


MDR warmer this year.
whole basin is warmer some areas more its expansive too as well as warmer around the canaries
144. bwi
This is an excellent news report, thanks for posting. I wonder about the lack of news from Nadi, and the reporter in Lautoka looked a bit overwhelmed. I love how in spite of the disaster they still made a few minutes time for rugby news at the end.

Fiji Airways resumed a couple international flights yesterday (Sunday their time) and a pretty full schedule of international and domestic flights from Nadi on Monday, so at least the airport is reopening, Looks like they're running some supplemental and catch-up service, although there's a note that catering service from Nadi-originating flights may not be up to par...

http://www.fijiairways.com/flight-information/tra vel-alerts/

Quoting 99. barbamz:

The mission of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston Situation Report No. 1 (as of 21 February 2016)
Death toll now at 6.


Detailed report in English from Fijian TV.

Interesting loop of today's events with Winston's eyewall (EWRC). First you think the eye would newly pop up more to the southeast of the old center but then it reappears right where the old one has been. So the track due west continues ...

BTW, loop of the passage through poor Fiji Islands was messed up due to crossing the data line. You can see a snippet of the last hours when the eye was in the northwest of Viti Levu though.
147. elioe
Sad to see so much death and destruction already revealed in Fiji. No doubt more damage will be assessed later, hopefully no more deaths.

Many models suggest South Vanuatu islands of Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum might see some tropical storm conditions within 24 hours. Also, most models bring tropical storm force winds to Norfolk Island in four days. Ceva-I-Ra (an uninhabited reef) will likely see hurricane conditions, hopefully there are no visitors then. In the distant future, Winston might affect New Zealand, Lord Howe Island, or even continental Australia.
148. vis0

Quoting 70. BaltimoreBrian:

I thought that during El Niño years the western Pacific was cooler than normal as the warm surface water moved eastwards. During this El Niño we have had record strong systems hit Vanuatu (Cyclone Pam) and now Fiji (Cyclone Winston). Is such strong tropical cyclone activity in the southwestern Pacific something new for El Niño years?
reply on my zilly blog pg.7 cmmnt#
Quoting 82. RobertWC:

Kevin Anderson talks about poking the dragon, and he doesn't pull any punches -
Going Beyond "Dangerous" Climate Change

1:39 hour clip

Published on Feb 9, 2016

Date: Thursday 4 February 2016
Time: 6.30-8pm
Venue: Old Theatre, Old Building

Despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature increase at or below 2 degrees Celsius. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upward sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change.

Kevin Anderson will address the endemic bias prevalent amongst many of those building emission scenarios to underplay the scale of the 2°C challenge. In several respects, the modeling community is actually self-censoring its research to conform to the dominant political and economic paradigm. However, even a slim chance of 'keeping below' a 2°C rise now demands a revolution in how we consume and produce energy. Such a rapid and deep transition will have profound implications for the framing of society, and is far removed from the rhetoric of green growth that increasingly dominates the climate change agenda.

Kevin Anderson (@KevinClimate) is Professor of Energy and Climate Change at the University of Manchester.


agree with 5 stars next to it.
Its  why i am noticing several long term aGW skeptics (really questioning, though most answers show aGW is real) & $keptic$ (greed driven questioning) are quietly changing their blogs graph(s) so it includes ranges NOT 0.0 to 1.0C but 0.0 to 2.0 on the anomaly charts.
In this manner the rise looks less harsh than if the line broke through the graphics ceiling (as Nio did in 2015/2016) THEN the charts were updated to include 1.5C.
 i'm waiting to see how both groups of skeptics explain the change in their blog's older text.
One site froze its blog updates some time ago and i think they are trying to figure out a way of removing the older comments that THE skeptics POSTED mentioning that they can extrude an error range of .75 C or even 1.0C by picking & choosing incorrect background (noise) yet as we go/break past the 1.0C barrier the skeptics will need to pick & choose more incorrect background (noise) as we're will be reaching 2.0C, one problem you can't go above 1C in error ranges since instruments are getting better and comparisons are more finely tuned, so in a few years i expect those blogs to change the subject and not GW v. aGW  'cause by then it will not matter who is in charge (nature or man made), just that something be done so that "my" home is not washed away or drinking water evaporated by yet another 250 - 500 yr storm / drought in 3 months.

Remember one reason why humans tend to forget past weather disasters is 'cause nature / gawd really the planets evolution has extreme weather events happen 1 or 2 times in a 75 yr life.  Enough time (average out to 1 every 30 yrs)for one to forget or put it in the back of ones mind and build a new home a rejoice that nature/gawd is good.

Now (2020 - 2050A.D.) when one lives 75 years they'll go through  4-6 extreme weather events AND hear of 4-6 more elsewhere giving one an average of 13 yrs  to "live", so ones children will be affected guaranteed, maybe that will tech future generations not to delay what could have been done yesterday to lead to a better tomorrow.

Heard a politician in S. Carolina actually say that this will be the first generation that parents are leaving their kids worse off than any other generation...uh...many including myself have said that at town hall meeting and also stated at UN assemblies and later President Clinton mentioned that ...WOW 20+ years ago.

Back to WINSTON while also updating local weather OBs.
Quoting 142. whitewabit:



From something like that you never move forward its always somewhere in the back of your mind .. every Hurricane/ typhoon brings back those memories .. you try to cover them but they won't go away ..

For years I never understood the feelings that happen every August .. or every time an area has a comparable storm .. you grieve with those who are going through what you did its something you can't over come .. you see the faces and the sounds from so long ago they are etched in your memory .. they never fade away !!


Yes...
Quoting 143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

whole basin is warmer some areas more its expansive too as well as warmer around the canaries



Last I checked it's February and that was winter time here in Alaska. It's +40F and raining out... I didn't think that was supposed to happen.

   Gonna be toasty soon.... avg. is 68/45
Quoting 146. hydrus:


its going to be stormy alright up in the northeast comes Thursday huh
South Daytona, FL
3:39 PM EST on February 21, 2016 (GMT -0500)
Daytona Beach International
Elev 33 ft 29.18 °N, 81.06 °W | Updated 47 min ago
Scattered Clouds
74 °F
Feels Like 74 °F
N
7
Wind Variable
Pressure     30.12 in
Visibility     10.0 miles
Clouds     Few 5000 ft
Scattered Clouds 13000 ft
Scattered Clouds 20000 ft
Dew Point     56 °F
Humidity     53%

I'll say it again to defend myself since once again my post was deleted.No one is wishing hurricane calamity as someone had exaggerated in a earlier post.People who are new to Florida will most likely not know what to do when the time comes and others feel invincible to nature so they don't feel as though they need to take the proper steps.
Yup, Galveston 1900 is a shining example. Also when you are on the wave shadow side of a tropical island, there may be no long period swell to speak of.

Quoting 138. Sfloridacat5:

Without modern technology, no one would have known the strongest tropical cyclone in history was about to hit.


Wow, no purple down to the OBX and late Feb is normally the coldest temps of the winter for Northeast and New England waters.

Quoting 139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare 2015/16 same date



Quoting 156. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yup, Galveston 1900 is a shining example. Also when you are on the wave shadow side of a tropical island, there may be no long period swell to speak of.




Have to ask whitewabbit or grothar what it was like in 1900...
Quoting 108. hydrus:

Yep...and cool water in the Gulf of Guinea...Will likely be a busy season.


When a read comments like this, I feel very happy!
Arguably one of the nicest days of the year so far, got into the lower 70's and then the clouds came. It's a warm beverage with a book on the porch type of evening.
Quoting 158. Dakster:



Have to ask whitewabbit or grothar what it was like in 1900...
Yep...Datz like 10 minutes ago ta, dem.....I should shut up, as i myself am looking at a much different number soon.
Quoting 159. CaribBoy:



When a read comments like this, I feel very happy!
Not me..I found out a long time ago that the thrill of the storm isnt worth the aftermath...I hope and pray that if there are indeed more in the way of active hurricane seasons, that the trend will also include more recurved storms....:)
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
#Winston has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 163. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
#Winston has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
Thats nice...I can see it now, hurricanes, typhoons , and cyclones reaching epic proportions, and our only way to rate and gauge them is with entire Atlantic Hurricane Season A.C.E. totals.....were alll gonnna die....pffft....
Speaking of scars left by storms...



Much of north and central Alabama were devastated by numerous, powerful tornadoes that swept across the state on 27 April 2011. One of the major tasks after the storms was getting survey crews out to analyze the storm paths and assess the strength of these storms. This helps emergency managers have a broad overview of where the storms hit so that aid can be provided. One product that SPoRT experimented with after the storms was a difference image using 500 m MODIS imagery from both before and after the tornadoes. This difference image clearly shows where the larger tornadoes EF-2 or greater tracked across the state. The image here shows the EF-4 Tuscaloosa tornado (center track), along with a major tornado both north and south of Tuscaloosa.
Quoting 98. barbamz:

Good morning abroad, and thanks for the concise summary on Winston, doc. Unfortunately more dire photos of Winston's aftermath now begin showing up:

Monish Nand @MonishNand 3 hours ago
The following images were taken by the NZ Defence Airforce and were taken in Koro, Lau, Taveuni and Rabi. #TCWinston.





Original source is the Facebook site of Fijian Government.

Photo Gallery at one glance
The following images were taken in Koro, Lau, Taveuni and Rabi and parts of the Eastern and Northern Division.
The devastation of the damage to homes etc is enormous and a relief team that comprises of military personnel, health, rehab personnel are now on standby to provide relief support.
The Prime Minister Hon. Voreqe Bainimarama has called on all Government agencies and personnel to prioritise the deployment of personnel to these communities to provide relief support and assistance. He has advised all agencies in charge of relief efforts to ensure that all possible options are looked at to ensure that an immediate response is provided.
These images were taken by the NZ Defence AirForce.



Oh my gosh... That is horrible. Looking through the photo album, you can see the difference between areas that got outer bands and the inner core.

A lot of the pictures there is some damage here and there to trees and buildings, these are likely the areas that saw winds equivalent to the official wind recorded locations. While still bad, it's not absolute destruction.

However, in some of these pictures like the sample above, the damage is downright horrifying. These area of course I'm sure were the eyewall damage zones. Some of the pictures in the album are even worse than the sample pictures. The damage in some of the pictures looks like an EF4 tornado just leveled everything. Unfortunately, when you get an eyewall of a 180 mph system, there isn't much you can do for safety but leave.
The people affected by all natural events deserve our sympathy and compassion.

Some people get excited over tornadoes and many love to chase them. Some other people might get the same excitement from experiencing a blizzard or record snow storm. Then there are people who find excitement in watching tropical systems form and some people even seek them out to experience their power first hand.

These events (Earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, etc) can kill people, but these natural events are very interesting to a lot of people who enjoy science.

Based on Wiki,
January 2016 United States blizzard, "At least 55 fatalities have been attributed to the storm and its aftermath."
Link
Quoting 157. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wow, no purple down to the OBX and late Feb is normally the coldest temps of the winter for Northeast and New England waters.




I've not had my usual cool and dreary February either, and I miss it.
We do have a cool down coming over the next couple of days so thats something to look forward too.
None of those hover around 40, overcast and drizzly that I have been longing for.
If Washi does indeed move to Texas she is in for a culture shock ...she does love her snow.
Quoting 150. Dakster:




Last I checked it's February and that was winter time here in Alaska. It's +40F and raining out... I didn't think that was supposed to happen.
there will be a lot of things that are not supposed to happen


Things are really heating up here in Texas. It looks like the main threat will be Hail. We could also get 1.5 inches of rain. :)


For others- NOLA and points east along I-10 thru the Fla Panhandle gonna have a rough day on Wednesday.

That is all.

Carry on.
Quoting 122. Patrap:

All fisherman know when a storm is coming, as its not like a sneak attack.

They may have been trying to reach a safer harbor for their vessels. Im fairly sure a experienced crew would know a cyclone is coming.

Their approach is kinda hard to hide been my sperience.




An old text, circa the 40's by New Yorker writer Guy Murchie, a WW2 navigator, wrote an excellent book about navigation called "Song of the Sky".

In one section he discusses the South Pacific Natives' ability to navigate, and how they could find their way a tiny island hundreds of miles away, simply by reading the waves, the wind and the sky. Amazing! The book is a treat of a read for those who like the history of science, well told anecdotes, and all sorts of obscure facts regarding sky, sea, and the finding of one's way.

Not meaning to spam. No idea if it is still available, but you could get it for sure through inter-library loan.



Houston, you've got a problem. Or does Houston? I can't make any sense of the situation.
Quoting 172. aquak9:



For others- NOLA and points east along I-10 thru the Fla Panhandle gonna have a rough day on Wednesday.

That is all.

Carry on.
Indeed..It keeps gettin stronger too...

What is the difference between a 5% (marginal) risk of severe weather and a Slight (15+%) of severe weather. Who's going to have the bigger problems on Tuesday, Houston or New Orleans?
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
412 PM CST sun Feb 21 2016

The trough axis out west will track to the Upper Texas coast and 
Louisiana coast on Monday. At the same time...moisture axis will
sag over the with values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches over forecast area
Monday morning through Monday evening and cape values increase up
to 200 to 500 j/kg according NAM and GFS. Extra lift will provide
an increase in coverage of rain. Trough moves east Monday. While
NAM holds instability in play Monday night...GFS decrease
instability to none Monday night with the passage of dampening trough
and frontal push into the forecast area Monday night. Will show a
slight break in convection Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Jet maximum over northern California will push and allow the
associated disturbance will deepen over the Southern Plains
Tuesday. Wavelength will shortened over the Mississippi Valley
Tuesday. NAM...GFS and Euro have come together with surface low
developing over central Texas Tuesday Monday...tracking east
across north Louisiana/arklatex Tuesday afternoon. According
to GFS 0-3km helicity showed values from 350 to 600 M/S from west
central to the Florida parishes Tuesday afternoon and this area
sweeps northeast. In the warm sector...GFS show cape values of 300
to 900 j/kg. However...the low deepening below 1000mb...cape
values along just ahead of the frontal zones may increase up to
1500 j/kg. At 500mb...trough will evolve into a low over northwest
Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. 500 mb temperatures decrease from -12c/-13c to
to -16c/-17c by late Tuesday afternoon across the northwest zones
with the hail threat. 18 

Due to the fast movement of this system heavy rainfall is
expected but long duration is not. All in all...wind damage...isolated
tornadoes and large hail threats will be present for Tuesday and
Tuesday evening. Ergo...we agree with the slight risk of severe
storms on Tuesday day 3.

Long term...
strong cold air advection will hazards for areas south of the lake
and area wide Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Northwesterly
flow over the area with high pressure moving across the area at
the end of the week. Expect dry weather Thursday through next
weekend. Temperatures will be chilly during the mornings with
readings across the north half of the area in the 30s for Thursday
through Saturday mornings. High temperatures near 60 on Thursday
will slowly moderate...reaching around 70 on Sunday.

&&
Quoting 178. Patrap:

Area forecast discussion br style="box-sizing: border-box;">National Weather Service New Orleans la br style="box-sizing: border-box;">412 PM CST sun Feb 21 2016 br style="box-sizing: border-box;">

The trough axis out west will track to the Upper Texas coast and br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Louisiana coast on Monday. At the same time...moisture axis will br style="box-sizing: border-box;">sag over the with values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches over forecast area br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Monday morning through Monday evening and cape values increase up br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to 200 to 500 j/kg according NAM and GFS. Extra lift will provide br style="box-sizing: border-box;">an increase in coverage of rain. Trough moves east Monday. While br style="box-sizing: border-box;">NAM holds instability in play Monday night...GFS decrease br style="box-sizing: border-box;">instability to none Monday night with the passage of dampening trough br style="box-sizing: border-box;">and frontal push into the forecast area Monday night. Will show a br style="box-sizing: border-box;">slight break in convection Monday night into Tuesday morning. br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Jet maximum over northern California will push and allow the br style="box-sizing: border-box;">associated disturbance will deepen over the Southern Plains br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday. Wavelength will shortened over the Mississippi Valley br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday. NAM...GFS and Euro have come together with surface low br style="box-sizing: border-box;">developing over central Texas Tuesday Monday...tracking east br style="box-sizing: border-box;">across north Louisiana/arklatex Tuesday afternoon. According br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to GFS 0-3km helicity showed values from 350 to 600 M/S from west br style="box-sizing: border-box;">central to the Florida parishes Tuesday afternoon and this area br style="box-sizing: border-box;">sweeps northeast. In the warm sector...GFS show cape values of 300 br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to 900 j/kg. However...the low deepening below 1000mb...cape br style="box-sizing: border-box;">values along just ahead of the frontal zones may increase up to br style="box-sizing: border-box;">1500 j/kg. At 500mb...trough will evolve into a low over northwest br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. 500 mb temperatures decrease from -12c/-13c to br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to -16c/-17c by late Tuesday afternoon across the northwest zones 
with the hail threat. 18 br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Due to the fast movement of this system heavy rainfall is br style="box-sizing: border-box;">expected but long duration is not. All in all...wind damage...isolated br style="box-sizing: border-box;">tornadoes and large hail threats will be present for Tuesday and br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday evening. Ergo...we agree with the slight risk of severe br style="box-sizing: border-box;">storms on Tuesday day 3. br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Long term... br style="box-sizing: border-box;">strong cold air advection will hazards for areas south of the lake br style="box-sizing: border-box;">and area wide Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Northwesterly br style="box-sizing: border-box;">flow over the area with high pressure moving across the area at br style="box-sizing: border-box;">the end of the week. Expect dry weather Thursday through next br style="box-sizing: border-box;">weekend. Temperatures will be chilly during the mornings with br style="box-sizing: border-box;">readings across the north half of the area in the 30s for Thursday br style="box-sizing: border-box;">through Saturday mornings. High temperatures near 60 on Thursday br style="box-sizing: border-box;">will slowly moderate...reaching around 70 on Sunday. br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">&&



Hmm, they're more worried than we are. Bigger problem, as I see it, is the wind. What kind of problems will that cause, Patrap?


PS: In regard to site's Rules of the Road, what do you mean by "monomania?"
Quoting 178. Patrap:

Area forecast discussion br style="box-sizing: border-box;">National Weather Service New Orleans la br style="box-sizing: border-box;">412 PM CST sun Feb 21 2016 br style="box-sizing: border-box;">

The trough axis out west will track to the Upper Texas coast and br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Louisiana coast on Monday. At the same time...moisture axis will br style="box-sizing: border-box;">sag over the with values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches over forecast area br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Monday morning through Monday evening and cape values increase up br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to 200 to 500 j/kg according NAM and GFS. Extra lift will provide br style="box-sizing: border-box;">an increase in coverage of rain. Trough moves east Monday. While br style="box-sizing: border-box;">NAM holds instability in play Monday night...GFS decrease br style="box-sizing: border-box;">instability to none Monday night with the passage of dampening trough br style="box-sizing: border-box;">and frontal push into the forecast area Monday night. Will show a br style="box-sizing: border-box;">slight break in convection Monday night into Tuesday morning. br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Jet maximum over northern California will push and allow the br style="box-sizing: border-box;">associated disturbance will deepen over the Southern Plains br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday. Wavelength will shortened over the Mississippi Valley br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday. NAM...GFS and Euro have come together with surface low br style="box-sizing: border-box;">developing over central Texas Tuesday Monday...tracking east br style="box-sizing: border-box;">across north Louisiana/arklatex Tuesday afternoon. According br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to GFS 0-3km helicity showed values from 350 to 600 M/S from west br style="box-sizing: border-box;">central to the Florida parishes Tuesday afternoon and this area br style="box-sizing: border-box;">sweeps northeast. In the warm sector...GFS show cape values of 300 br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to 900 j/kg. However...the low deepening below 1000mb...cape br style="box-sizing: border-box;">values along just ahead of the frontal zones may increase up to br style="box-sizing: border-box;">1500 j/kg. At 500mb...trough will evolve into a low over northwest br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. 500 mb temperatures decrease from -12c/-13c to br style="box-sizing: border-box;">to -16c/-17c by late Tuesday afternoon across the northwest zones 
with the hail threat. 18 br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Due to the fast movement of this system heavy rainfall is br style="box-sizing: border-box;">expected but long duration is not. All in all...wind damage...isolated br style="box-sizing: border-box;">tornadoes and large hail threats will be present for Tuesday and br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday evening. Ergo...we agree with the slight risk of severe br style="box-sizing: border-box;">storms on Tuesday day 3. br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Long term... br style="box-sizing: border-box;">strong cold air advection will hazards for areas south of the lake br style="box-sizing: border-box;">and area wide Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Northwesterly br style="box-sizing: border-box;">flow over the area with high pressure moving across the area at br style="box-sizing: border-box;">the end of the week. Expect dry weather Thursday through next br style="box-sizing: border-box;">weekend. Temperatures will be chilly during the mornings with br style="box-sizing: border-box;">readings across the north half of the area in the 30s for Thursday br style="box-sizing: border-box;">through Saturday mornings. High temperatures near 60 on Thursday br style="box-sizing: border-box;">will slowly moderate...reaching around 70 on Sunday. br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">&&
The rather mellow demeanor the Mets have today should change dramatically by tomorrow evening... Wind advisories will likely cover a vast region of the eastern half....Trees here are looking beat up as it is, this event will likely add to there ragged appearance..



Someone is going to get a nasty Lake Effect Band if the models with the low just NW of Toronto is Correct, that's a NW wind across lake Huron, North across Michigan and West across Erie, if the temps are cool enough, with a storm that strong, there is going to be a big band setting up somewhere near Buffalo, East of Windsor, and near Chicago
Quoting 182. hydrus:

The rather mellow demeanor the Mets have today should change rather dramatically by tomorrow evening... Wind advisories will likely cover a vast region of the eastern half....Trees here are looking beat up as it is, this event will likely add to there ragged appearance..






Are you in New Orleans, hydrus? You're a little vague about "Eastern half."
186. beell
Perhaps a substantial wind risk here into the overnight hours along the gulf coast. Possibly carrying on towards the Atlantic on Wednesday-as well as a tornado risk centered more towards the west central portion of the current slight risk Tuesday afternoon-near the surface low over the ARKLAMS(?) An upgrade seems likely.


(click image for all Day 3 Outlook graphics)

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SE TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK...FROM E TX TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS AND AL...AND SW GA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE MID-UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER TX LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND THEN PROGRESS EWD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK...A SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FROM E/NE TX TO WRN TN...AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY AND MS/AL OVERNIGHT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS LA/MS...AND A BAND OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

...GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. THE MOISTENING WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUCH THAT WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FARTHER INLAND...RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR...AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS SUFFICIENT...AND A BAND OF STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ALSO INCLUDE SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/MS...WITH THE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO RISK PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE IN LATER UPDATES.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 02/21/2016


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF AL/FL/GA ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUED DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SPEED OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME. BY DAY 5/THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

..LEITMAN.. 02/21/2016
Quoting 148. vis0:


reply on my zilly blog pg.7 cmmnt#
agree with 5 stars next to it.
Its  why i am noticing several long term aGW skeptics (really questioning, though most answers show aGW is real) & $keptic$ (greed driven questioning) are quietly changing their blogs graph(s) so it includes ranges NOT 0.0 to 1.0C but 0.0 to 2.0 on the anomaly charts.
In this manner the rise looks less harsh than if the line broke through the graphics ceiling (as Nio did in 2015/2016) THEN the charts were updated to include 1.5C.
 i'm waiting to see how both groups of skeptics explain the change in their blog's older text.
One site froze its blog updates some time ago and i think they are trying to figure out a way of removing the older comments that THE skeptics POSTED mentioning that they can extrude an error range of .75 C or even 1.0C by picking & choosing incorrect background (noise) yet as we go/break past the 1.0C barrier the skeptics will need to pick & choose more incorrect background (noise) as we're will be reaching 2.0C, one problem you can't go above 1C in error ranges since instruments are getting better and comparisons are more finely tuned, so in a few years i expect those blogs to change the subject and not GW v. aGW  'cause by then it will not matter who is in charge (nature or man made), just that something be done so that "my" home is not washed away or drinking water evaporated by yet another 250 - 500 yr storm / drought in 3 months.

Remember one reason why humans tend to forget past weather disasters is 'cause nature / gawd really the planets evolution has extreme weather events happen 1 or 2 times in a 75 yr life.  Enough time (average out to 1 every 30 yrs)for one to forget or put it in the back of ones mind and build a new home a rejoice that nature/gawd is good.

Now (2020 - 2050A.D.) when one lives 75 years they'll go through  4-6 extreme weather events AND hear of 4-6 more elsewhere giving one an average of 13 yrs  to "live", so ones children will be affected guaranteed, maybe that will tech future generations not to delay what could have been done yesterday to lead to a better tomorrow.

Heard a politician in S. Carolina actually say that this will be the first generation that parents are leaving their kids worse off than any other generation...uh...many including myself have said that at town hall meeting and also stated at UN assemblies and later President Clinton mentioned that ...WOW 20+ years ago.

Back to WINSTON while also updating local weather OBs.

Skeptics? There is not and has never been anything skeptical about them.
Quoting 186. beell:

Perhaps a substantial wind risk here into the overnight hours along the gulf coast. Possibly carrying on towards the Atlantic on Wednesday-as well as a tornado risk centered more towards the west central portion of the current slight risk Tuesday afternoon-near the surface low over the ARKLAMS(?) An upgrade seems likely.


(click image for all Day 3 Outlook graphics)

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SE TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK...FROM E TX TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS AND AL...AND SW GA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE MID-UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER TX LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND THEN PROGRESS EWD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK...A SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FROM E/NE TX TO WRN TN...AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY AND MS/AL OVERNIGHT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS LA/MS...AND A BAND OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

...GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. THE MOISTENING WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUCH THAT WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FARTHER INLAND...RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR...AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS SUFFICIENT...AND A BAND OF STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ALSO INCLUDE SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/MS...WITH THE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO RISK PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE IN LATER UPDATES.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 02/21/2016


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF AL/FL/GA ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUED DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SPEED OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME. BY DAY 5/THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

..LEITMAN.. 02/21/2016



Sounds like I'm better off here in Houston, Texas than I would be in the LA/MS region. Right, Beell?
189. beell
Quoting 188. pureet1948:




Sounds like I'm better off here in Houston, Texas than I would be in the LA/MS region. Right, Beell?


"I've lived in good climate, and it bores the h*** out of me. I like weather rather than climate."
~John Steinbeck
And the beat goes on.

DC forecast discussion mentions PWATs near 1.5" wednesday evening and also points out IAD month record for Feb is 1.44"

Already broke month records in December and August last year and Jan had some respectable moisture slugs too.


Quoting 189. beell:



"I've lived in good climate, and it bores the h*** out of me. I like weather rather than climate."
~John Steinbeck



I don't understand.
192. beell
Quoting 191. pureet1948:




I don't understand.


You must be from Dontunderstanistan.
:)



Quoting 192. beell:



You must be from Dontunderstanistan.
:)






Good graphic. I'm glad forecaster confidence isn't at the high level, at least not yet. It makes sense that it'd be moderate (if I read it right, that is), as there's always a level of uncertainty in timing and severity of weather fronts.

Mexican proverb: The lion is not as fierce as they paint him.
If I may post again:


mconus/2016022200/namconus_ref_frzn_eus_12.png

I like the way the current 00Z GFS model run keep the nastiest thunderstorms to the north of Houston and Harris County. But, I suppose the NAM12 solution is the more likely occurrence, isn't it?

(watches as beell circles the bait)

Don't do it, beell! Resist the urge!!!
I have posted the recipe to mushroom tacos on my blog.
Quoting 197. pureet1948:


I could be wishcasting, but it does look like areas north of the Houston metro will be getting the nastier storms, if the rain chance is anything to go by.


(60% Houston, 70-80% chances north of I-10)
Fiji super cyclone kills 17 and raises fears of health crisis
SYDNEY/Reuters | By Jane Wardell and Colin Packham, World | Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:02am IST
Fiji began a massive cleanup on Monday after one of the most powerful storms recorded in the southern hemisphere tore through the Pacific island nation, killing 17 people, flattening remote villages and cutting off communications.
Aid agencies warned of a widespread health crisis, particularly in low-lying areas where thousands of Fiji's 900,000 people live in tin shacks, after crops were wiped out and fresh water supplies blocked.
Almost 8,000 people remained hunkered down in hundreds of evacuation centres across Fiji where they had headed before tropical cyclone Winston hit late on Saturday with winds of up to 325 kph (200 mph).
"The death toll from Cyclone Winston continues to rise and reports of widespread damage are coming in from across Fiji," said New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully. "It is clear that Fiji faces a major cleanup and recovery operation."
McCully said a New Zealand Defence Force C-130 would leave for the Fijian capital, Suva, later on Monday with relief supplies and an emergency response team.
The majority of the fatalities were along the western coast and were caused mainly by flying debris and drowning in storm surges, authorities said. There were also fears for seven fishermen believed to be missing at sea. ...


Toll from cyclone Winston in Fiji rises to 20
By IANS | Feb 22, 2016 11:16 am

21 confirmed dead by TC Winston, 8438 in evacuation centres
21 people are confirmed dead and four are still missing at sea
FBC News, Fiji Time: Monday, 22 February 2016, 17:57 Today

Death toll rising in devastated Fiji
By Peter Trute, February 22, 2016, 6:30 pm
More than 60,000 people live in areas that were hit by destructive winds near the eye of Cyclone Winston, UNICEF Australia CEO Adrian Graham said. ...

Very sad story:
Night of terror
Mere Naleba, Monday, February 22, 2016

Rakiraki Town shut down
REPEKA NASIKO, Monday, February 22, 2016, Update: 1:21PM
RAKIRAKI Town is in complete shutdown due to the devastation caused by Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston. Power outages and no access to fuel has left the town and its people totally cut-off from aid and services.
The Fiji Times news team that managed to get across the damaged Yaqara Bridge this morning entered Rakiraki Town a few minutes ago.
The scene along the coastline to Rakiraki is one of devastation and despair. Hundreds of homes were flattened by the category 5 storm with people wondering what to do and where to go for assistance.


Koro identified as priority says Fiji Red Cross
14:29 Today, Taken from/By:, Report by: Ellen Stolz
Koro Island has been identified as a priority area at the moment by government.
Fiji Red Cross Society Operations Manager Eseroma Ledua says the Island of Koro is their priority at the moment. ...
"For Koro alone the number that was given to us this morning is 2.000 families. You can do your own calculation on the Western and Northern Division so definitely we will be needing more aid. Today there is only one team going to Koro because that's the area that the Government is prioritising. This will also be our priority and our role to support the government as part of our auxiliary role."



Latest Euro...

Addition to post #200

New photo gallery of the damage on the ground by cyclone Winston:
Western Division damage photos
Von Fijian Government - vor 2 Stunden aktualisiert

More information:
https://www.facebook.com/FijianGovernment/

Winston's path renews concerns in Vanuatu
Radionz, Updated 19 minutes ago
Vanuatu's Meteorological Service has issued an advisory for the country's southern Tafea province as cyclone Winston enters its waters.
The cyclone, which is currently a category four after it devastated Fiji at the weekend as a category five, is currently about 440 kilometres east of Efate.
The service says winds close its centre are estimated to be around 175 kilometres an hour, although they are believed to be intensifying.
A warning has not yet been issued, but the service says the cyclone may affect Tafea in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Winston is expected to veer southwest into colder waters, but the cyclone has proved erratic and changed path many times in the weeks since it formed.



Loop completed. Source.
347 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...

A FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND STALL...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTER A BREAK IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. AT
THIS TIME DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HEAVY
RAIN /AROUND 1 INCH PER DAY/ WILL KEEP THE FLOODING RISK HIGH.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.


$$
Wowee, when will this end?? I cant believe the impacts caused by Winston in the South Pacific Islands. I hope that the cyclone dissipates soon, before the whole area gets devastated. To see Winston make landfall as a category 5 in Fiji is just so unprecedented I don't know how to respond
From the Fiji Sun: 21 Dead, 4 Missing After Cyclone Winston You can read some of the details of people who died in the article like this one:

Keresi Tupou, Female, aged 98, resident of Rakiraki , drowning.

From the article:

21 people have been confirmed dead and 4 are missing after Cyclone Winston. But the toll is likely to increase according to the National Disaster Management Office. Communications problems have hindered detailed information reaching the NDMO.
Winston almost stalled but what movement it has is now due south.
Bands of rain over part of Vanautu should be welcome there.
208. elioe
Quoting 204. Layten123:

Wowee, when will this end??


If models are to be trusted, then:

Most likely: 7-10 days. A front arriving in SE Queensland in six days will affect Winston considerably, making it soon extratropical. Then it hits New Zealand in seven days from now. After that, the remnants shouldn't affect anyone.

Less likely: more than 10 days. If Winston goes so fast or to the right of forecast track, that it won't be sufficiently affected by the front, it will continue to Coral Sea and possibly remain in existence for at least 16 days (as shown by some GFS ensemble members)

Least likely: about 7 days. If Winston goes faster along forecast track, it might make landfall in Brisbane area, if it arrives there before the front.
209. Tcwx2
Looks to be a major severe weather risk tomorrow night into Wednesday.
Good Morning.  The Conus forecast for today and current look.  Relatively calm today in the South (rain) but the more active classic El Nino low trajectory systems on tap starting tomorrow as the two lows deepen over the next several days. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2016

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 22 2016 - 12Z Wed Feb 24 2016

...Showers and thunderstorms from Texas to the Southeast Coast...

...Snow showers expected for the Rocky Mountains...

Unsettled weather is expected over the southern tier states for the
beginning of the week as a cold front slowly moves southward and then
stalls near the Gulf Coast. The moisture convergence in the vicinity of
this boundary will provide enough lift for scattered showers and storms to
develop on Sunday and into Monday. By Tuesday morning, a more
concentrated area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is likely over parts
of the southern Plains and the Deep South as a surface low develops over
Texas and moves eastward.

By Wednesday morning, the surface low is forecast to continue deepening as
it tracks across Tennessee and the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and
storms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the
southeast states and Florida. On the west side of the low, a band of
accumulating snow is expected from Missouri to the Great Lakes with
several inches of snow likely. Windy conditions are also expected in the
vicinity of this low pressure system.

Quoting 172. aquak9:



For others- NOLA and points east along I-10 thru the Fla Panhandle gonna have a rough day on Wednesday.

That is all.

Carry on.




I ain't skeered!
WOW!!!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 22 Feb 2016 Average for last 30 days -12.24
Average for last 90 days -15.10
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -50.34
On the Pacific side, that low headed up towards the Pacific NW-Alaska is pretty impressive in scope and size:

Lower Level:

Upper Level:
And finally look at the lower level wind pattern with the low in the Pacific; that is a pretty well defined lower level circulation:



-50 daily SOI and a WWB to boot. This means very slow weakening of this El-Nino. Infact as of today's update from the CPC we are @ 2.4C vrs 1.9C back @ this same date in 1998.

NWS Melbourne Florida is mentioning the Possibility of a few Tornado's wens...I remember our last storm front line and what happened,going to stay real alert wens for sure.
Very likely a significant hit for any chance of La-Nina this Summer I mean a -50 SOI the lowest of this El-Nino so far. Also a WWB to end out February and to begin March. I would seriously start paying attention to what the CFSv2 is showing as the other models seem to be busting with its rapid El-nino weakening forecast as to put it bluntly has not happened.

NWS Melbourne

WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FAR TO THE
NORTH OF CWA WED...50 KT SW FLOW AT 850 MB LIKELY TO TRANSIT
NORTHERN PENINSULA WED MID DAY-AFTERNOON...INCLUDING LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WITH 35-40 KT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH NOSE OF 120 KT UPPER
JET APPROACHING REGION. WHILE SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO SSW/SW
WED...SHORT PERIOD OF 200-250 M2/S2 HELICITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN CWA...COINCIDENT WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF PREFRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE. IN ADDITION...STRONG SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD ALLOWS TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES PLUS EVEN WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LEADING TO CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IN ABSENCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE. THUS...SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ENTIRE CWA...WITH GREATEST CONCERN ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
HAVE INDICATED
HIGHEST POPS...60 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH CWA WED... DROPPING TO
SOUTHERN CWA DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 40-50 PERCENT COVERAGE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

Quoting 173. MontanaZephyr:



An old text, circa the 40's by New Yorker writer Guy Murchie, a WW2 navigator, wrote an excellent book about navigation called "Song of the Sky".

In one section he discusses the South Pacific Natives' ability to navigate, and how they could find their way a tiny island hundreds of miles away, simply by reading the waves, the wind and the sky. Amazing! The book is a treat of a read for those who like the history of science, well told anecdotes, and all sorts of obscure facts regarding sky, sea, and the finding of one's way.

Not meaning to spam. No idea if it is still available, but you could get it for sure through inter-library loan.


Archive.org is a wonderful place --> Song of the Sky
Euro the next 10 days shows the SOI -25 to -40. Just incredible to see that in what should be a weakening El-Nino. This folks is significant I don't care how you slice it whether you want La-Nina or not you can't ignore what is going on as models infact many of them are busting badly right now. Hollovers show a WWB to begin March with possibly another to end March again not ideal for drastic transition of this El-Nino. Infact a more gradual weakening is what I expect with Nino 3.4 dipping to just below 1C this Summer but then increase come Fall to 1.3C.
Might be a rough storm day up there Thursday................................
Yep...

Quoting 222. hydrus:

Yep...




SOI diving like it is will likely give way to a Wild March East of the Mississippi. Also could be a lot of Arctic Cold around to too.
Havent seen a Hazardous forecast out of NWS Tampa in 2 days...did they close that office?........................................... ........ later..found one for Tampa bay area..........................................
Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.


Tonight

A slight chance of showers between 10pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


Tuesday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East southeast wind 7 to 17 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South southeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.


Wednesday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southwest wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.


Wednesday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. West wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. West northwest wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.


Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...MUCH OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW
TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...FL/GA THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA...

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS GA/FL DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS NC/VA
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NC WILL
PIVOT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND CHESAPEAKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHEASTERN GA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL
GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
FURTHER NORTH FROM EASTERN SC THROUGH THE NC/SE VA PIEDMONT
REGION...STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT ON THE NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL. FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NORTHEAST GA THROUGH CENTRAL
VA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE MARGINAL...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES STILL IMPRESSIVE. HERE...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..LEITMAN.. 02/22/2016

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
734 am CST Monday Feb 22 2016

...

Added thunderstorm wording for Tuesday evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 718 am CST Monday Feb 22 2016/

.Sounding discussion...

Pretty interesting sounding this morning. There's a shallow
inversion near the surface to 960 mb (1600 ft) which should mix
out before noon today. Additionally the sounding has high relative humidity
values >80% below a second inversion near 740 mb (8600 ft). This
has allowed for slightly higher than normal precipitable water values of 1.35
inches and forecast cape of ~800 j/kg. There is a dry layer between
525 mb (174 kft) and 740 mb which may serve to delay today's
convection but with the fzl <12 kft the potential for small hail
is there with any ts that do form. Winds are generally out of the
southwest and south until ~500 mb (188 kft) where they are
westerly at 50 kts. Overall with the forecast cape and slight troughmoving into the area now... expect decent cloud cover and
scattered showers/thunderstorms and rain around southeast la for later this afternoon.

Drj

Previous discussion... /issued 322 am CST Monday Feb 22 2016/

Short term...
the tale of two fronts. The first is close to Vicksburg slowly
moving southward. This front should stall just north of the area.
This is where a weak jet pulse will move across the frontal
interface toward noon today and cause some weak lift keeping ts
activity going through the day. A few ts could reach southern
Mississippi. Good cooling at 500mb but only 400-500j/kg cape
values. This will still have the possibility of producing small
hail from one or two ts if things can come together just right
today. But the focus will mainly be on the second front...and
justifiably so.
The first front has primed most column variables needed for
strong to severe weather. All that will be needed is strong dynamics.
This will be provided by the second front. As the stalled front
moves back to the north late today and tonight...the column will
remain unflushed. There could even be some heating taking place
Tuesday before the second front gets here. The surface front will be
coupled with strong middle and upper dynamic forcing helping produce
single cellular activity ahead of the front as well as along it.
The front will traverse the area in roughly 5 to 6 hours.
Starting at Baton Rouge at around 7pm...the front should be at
Gulfport around midnight and exit the area just before 1am Wednesday
morning. There looks to be an environment very conducive for
single celled structure ahead of the front and along the front as
it begins to deepen and frontogenisis rapidly takes place as it
moves through the area. The surface low will be relatively close to
the area causing surface dynamics to be intense. Srh 0-3km numbers
between 400-500m2/s2 are impressive with this system and instead
of just speed shear...the directional shear will be enhanced. This
will cause almost every ts cell to rotate with a much easier
ability to produce tornadic activity. 500mb temperatures cool
significantly as the low deepens and the associated short wave
tightens the long wave trough. The rapidly falling upper level
temperatures will give way to the possibility of large hail as well. The
activity ahead of and along the front will have the possibility of
producing every Mode of severe weather.

As the front approaches...we
should see single cell ts activity start to become more organized
as it takes on linearity along the front. This is where severity
may fit the definition of widespread. The front moves through at
around 40mph. Simple momentum Transfer alone would produce winds
in the area of 25-30kts. This means any ts along the front that is
able to produce 20-30kt winds itself coupled with the downward
transport of environmental winds will be capable of producing
severe wind speeds easily in the range of 50-60kt with some
capable of producing much higher.

Long term...
the next cold front to affect the area looks to be around the
start of next week.

Marine...significant issues will impact all marine zones
beginning Tuesday with the greatest impacts Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Warm front is already draped north across the lower MS Valley North
of the County Warning Area with Bermuda ridge east of the region allowing weak
onshore flow. The warm front is not expected to move much over the
next 24 hours with onshore flow continuing but by Tuesday morning
conditions will begin to deteriorate rapidly.

Tuesday morning cyclogenesis will begin along the stalled front over the
central Texas coast and by midday Tuesday a full fledged deepeningsurface low
will take shape just west of the Sabine River. Onshore flow will
increase with scy conditions expected by midday over the open
waters(especially the waters west of the MS delta). The surface low will
continue to deepen as it moves into and through northern la with mslp
possibly sub 990. As previous forecaster mentioned this will greatly
tighten the pressure gradient with high end scy criteria or gale
conditions expected shortly after 00z. A strong cold front will
quickly swing through during the evening hours and the cold air advection behind the
front will further increase the wind with sustained winds possibly
30-35 kts and occasional gusts near 50 kts over the open waters.
Seas will build quickly Tuesday and Tuesday evening possibly around 10-11 feet as
there will be a rather good fetch but seas should begin to relax a
tad overnight Tuesday as winds start to come more out of the northwest after
frontal passage.

Will go with a scy for the open waters along and west of the MS
Delta beginning at 15z Tuesday. Highly expect the scy to be expanded to
cover the rest of the waters if not a gale watch/warning being
issued for portions of the coastal waters.

Winds will relax throughout the day Wednesday and Wednesday night but flags will
likely still be needed for portions of the coastal waters through
Wednesday night. /Cab/
Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:

WOW!!!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 22 Feb 2016 Average for last 30 days -12.24
Average for last 90 days -15.10
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -50.34



I remember reading somewhere noting that La Nina does not always follow even a strong El Nino, could still hang around neutral levels for the summer. Made a conservative and much too early 14 named storms prediction for 2016.
From ilm

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...FORECAST REQUIRES FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING
WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DRIVE THIS ENTITY
IS NOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STRONG WIND FIELDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE MODELS WITH
WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT/POSSIBILITY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE AREA AND A GOOD PART
OF THE EAST COAST IN A DAY THREE SLIGHT RISK. PRIOR TO THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SO
WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
Almost every frontal passage we've had since January has resulted in tornadoes some where in Florida. Even when the SPC had us with a no risk or only slight risk of severe weather a head of the event.

So I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see a few isolated tornadoes with this next system.
The highs for today showing the temp differential behind the current front layout across the Southern tier of the US and the current radar along the front:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loopGraphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Tornadoes so far in 2016
229. Patrap

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
734 am CST Monday Feb 22 2016



This means any ts along the front that is
able to produce 20-30kt winds itself coupled with the downward
transport of environmental winds will be capable of producing
severe wind speeds easily in the range of 50-60kt with some
capable of producing much higher.



Winds much higher than 60 kts....Violent weather indeed.
I'm parking the Jeep in the Garage here tomorrow due to the hail threat mostly.

Takes like 35 maneuvers to get it in there since the fence was rebuilt post K.

Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:

Euro the next 10 days shows the SOI -25 to -40. Just incredible to see that in what should be a weakening El-Nino. This folks is significant I don't care how you slice it whether you want La-Nina or not you can't ignore what is going on as models infact many of them are busting badly right now. Hollovers show a WWB to begin March with possibly another to end March again not ideal for drastic transition of this El-Nino. Infact a more gradual weakening is what I expect with Nino 3.4 dipping to just below 1C this Summer but then increase come Fall to 1.3C.


Cyclonic wind stress curl, enhanced Sverdrup Transport, Ekman transport/suction, & low frequency thermocline shallowing upwelling Kelvin waves that are induced via off-equatorial Rossby Wave reflection that's initiated by the initial downwelling oceanic Kelvin Waves refracting against the eastern boundary region (i.e. South America) which thereby cancel the antecedent coupled ENSO disturbance (delayed oscillator mechanism), are self-desctrutive & regulatory processes that terminate an El Nino, regardless of continued WWBs. The rate of change in zonal mean height at the equator (in the tropical Pacific) is proportional to the meridional (N-S) gradient of zonal wind stress curl (curl-rotation of a fluid), thus positive zonal wind stress ((anomalous) westerlies) has negative curvature @ the equator, hence as the El Nino grows in strength, this negative feedback induced by the anomalous westerly wind also becomes increasingly stronger, eventually overwhelming the El Nino, & the unstable/coupled air-sea feedbacks, leading to its demise. Additionally, seasonal changes in insolation prompt southward shift of the ITCZ in the heart of the boreal winter, thereby reducing the westerly wind stress near the International Dateline & initiating a NINO's demise. The ongoing westward propagation of +SST anomalies w/ this event is more akin to moderate events & would be conducive to a rapid demise of this El Nino relative to 1982-83 & 1997-98. It certainly appears that the SST anomalies in the far eastern Pacific likely weren't strong enough to decouple the mixed & subsurface layers as in 82-83 & 97-98. Historical precedence of exceptionally strong NINOs (1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, & 1997-98) favors the development of neutral ENSO conditions by the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season & a weak-low-end moderate La Nina by late next fall, with all aforementioned events eventually being followed by a La Nina event by year 2 (after the end of the El Nino).
Quoting 234. Sfloridacat5:

Tornadoes so far in 2016



The new Euro Parallel is pretty rough for FL Wednesday. Could be some Supercells moving out of ahead of a developing squall line in the East Gulf. I would say 1pm to 8pm looks pretty rough from Tampa to Orlando and 4pm to 11pm down in your area.
Quoting 237. Webberweather53:



Cyclonic wind stress curl, enhanced Sverdrup Transport, Ekman transport/suction, & low frequency thermocline shallowing upwelling Kelvin waves that are induced via off-equatorial Rossby Wave reflection that's initiated by the initial downwelling oceanic Kelvin Waves refracting against the eastern boundary region (i.e. South America) which thereby cancel the antecedent coupled ENSO disturbance (delayed oscillator mechanism), are self-desctrutive & regulatory processes that terminate an El Nino, regardless of continued WWBs. The rate of change in zonal mean height at the equator (in the tropical Pacific) is proportional to the meridional (N-S) gradient of zonal wind stress curl (curl-rotation of a fluid), thus positive zonal wind stress ((anomalous) westerlies) has negative curvature @ the equator, hence as the El Nino grows in strength, this negative feedback induced by the anomalous westerly wind also becomes increasingly stronger, eventually overwhelming the El Nino, & the unstable/coupled air-sea feedbacks, leading to its demise. Additionally, seasonal changes in insolation prompt southward shift of the ITCZ in the heart of the boreal winter, thereby reducing the westerly wind stress near the International Dateline & initiating a NINO's demise. The ongoing westward propagation of SST anomalies w/ this event is more akin to moderate events & would be conducive to a rapid demise of this El Nino relative to 1982-83 & 1997-98. It certainly appears that the SST anomalies in the far eastern Pacific likely weren't strong enough to decouple the mixed & subsurface layers as in 82-83 & 97-98. Historical precedence of exceptionally strong NINOs (1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, & 1997-98) favors the development of neutral ENSO conditions by the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season & a weak-low-end moderate La Nina by late next fall, with all aforementioned events eventually being followed by a La Nina event by year 2 (after the end of the El Nino).


As someone who isn't taking met classes, are there any online resources that show the math, formulas, equations etc for calculating some of these examples?

I remember reading something in Steve Gregory's blog about either Kelvin waves or MJO and destructive interference of ENSO signals. Forget which, guess I could go back and look.
Upbeat note! Heard my first spring peepers Sunday Feb 21 in College Park MD. Lots of them!

One of the most beautiful and uplifting sounds in nature in my opinion.


New England saying. "first peepers, three more good freeze ups left"
241. JRRP
Quoting 239. win1gamegiantsplease:



As someone who isn't taking met classes, are there any online resources that show the math, formulas, equations etc for calculating some of these examples?

I remember reading something in Steve Gregory's blog about either Kelvin waves or MJO and destructive interference of ENSO signals. Forget which, guess I could go back and look.


Eastward propagating Equatorial Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby waves excited by reflections of the kelvin waves off the continental boundary, are ANALYTIC solutions of the shallow water equations. Their properties are fully known from simple algebra plugged into the formulas. That's the easy part. Reality is different.

The pure dynamic ocean solution produces an event which lasts for about three months, about 3-4x faster than observed. Coupling with the atmosphere STRONGLY Modulates El Nino evolution and this coupling cannot be expressed with an analytic formula and must instead be modeled.


The mathematics involved of the ocean solutions is senior undergraduate level partial differential equations, with strong motivation it can be understood by someone who has taken ordinary differential equations with some short cuts on PDE theory. I would like a second opinion from advanced undergraduate or graduate students or professors on my argument above I'll have to dig this up from deep storage in my on brain and it's not trivial to express because this blog does not lend itself to formulas.. I can't even slip in a plus sign!!


Perhaps a two or three page post from webberweather53 adding to his post would help since he seems to understand it with more detail than I (who looked at the problem in the mid 80s) and his pedagogy may be better too.
243. JRRP
hmm... this does not look bad at all
Quoting 239. win1gamegiantsplease:



As someone who isn't taking met classes, are there any online resources that show the math, formulas, equations etc for calculating some of these examples?

I remember reading something in Steve Gregory's blog about either Kelvin waves or MJO and destructive interference of ENSO signals. Forget which, guess I could go back and look.


There's a plethora of resources. Google Scholar, Scientific American, Wiley Online Library, AMS , etc. & other prominent & active online publishing journals are your best friends, I personally like to refresh myself by reading a paper or two before I post anything to make sure I'm not giving you a bunch of bologna...
Quoting 238. StormTrackerScott:



The new Euro Parallel is pretty rough for FL Wednesday. Could be some Supercells moving out of ahead of a developing squall line in the East Gulf. I would say 1pm to 8pm looks pretty rough from Tampa to Orlando and 4pm to 11pm down in your area.


17 tornadoes already this year (less than two months) in Florida. We're only second to Mississippi with 25. It's been rough up in that one area of Mississippi and Alabama.
Quoting 242. georgevandenberghe:



Eastward propagating Equatorial Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby waves excited by reflections of the kelvin waves off the continental boundary, are ANALYTIC solutions of the shallow water equations. Their properties are fully known from simple algebra plugged into the formulas. That's the easy part. Reality is different.

The pure dynamic ocean solution produces an event which lasts for about three months, about 3-4x faster than observed. Coupling with the atmosphere STRONGLY Modulates El Nino evolution and this coupling cannot be expressed with an analytic formula and must instead be modeled.


The mathematics involved of the ocean solutions is senior undergraduate level partial differential equations, with strong motivation it can be understood by someone who has taken ordinary differential equations with some short cuts on PDE theory. I would like a second opinion from advanced undergraduate or graduate students or professors on my argument above I'll have to dig this up from deep storage in my on brain and it's not trivial to express because this blog does not lend itself to formulas.. I can't even slip in a plus sign!!


I don't remember the equations off the top of my head, but I do remember that many in the senior level dynamics classes did not take PDE I (as it is not a requirement for the MET degree), but had taken ODE and were shown how to solve the PDE's for the equations we were working with.
In June, lol

Quoting 240. georgevandenberghe:

Upbeat note! Heard my first spring peepers Sunday Feb 21 in College Park MD. Lots of them!

One of the most beautiful and uplifting sounds in nature in my opinion.


New England saying. "first peepers, three more good freeze ups left"

Hey all, was out of town this weekend attending a wedding so was following Winston from a distance. I hope Fiji comes out of it okay, but that track was nasty. Speaking of the track, how does this even happen? I honestly don't understand the conditions required for a massive storm like this to do a loop-de-loop.


The current 5 day forecast has Winston weakening and skipping south and west around the island of New Caledonia.
250. vis0

Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

I'll say it again to defend myself since once again my post was deleted.No one is wishing hurricane calamity as someone had exaggerated in a earlier post.People who are new to Florida will most likely not know what to do when the time comes and others feel invincible to nature so they don't feel as though they need to take the proper steps.
my reply cmmt#328 pg. 7 my zilly blog
Quoting 248. HaoleboySurfEC:

In June, lol




I think they come out in early April in Northern New England, earlier further south like uuhh.. here in DC.




Quoting 230. win1gamegiantsplease:



I remember reading somewhere noting that La Nina does not always follow even a strong El Nino, could still hang around neutral levels for the summer. Made a conservative and much too early 14 named storms prediction for 2016.
Their will be no Nino this summer, the SOI is high, due to the storm in Fiji, and high pressure building in Australia, this will reverse come late winter, early spring, thus leading to neutral conditions by late spring, and a Nina come mid to late summer. Sorry guys who worship Nino's, but this one is toast, and won't return for a minimum of 3 yrs.
Quoting 244. Tazmanian:

i think i made my point about the ignored and quote dont mix well but the lazy admins of the site wont do any thing about it wish is sad


Give it a rest Taz.. its not going to change and the admin here at WU are not LAZY !!
Where we lived in central Maine, it was highly variable. I remember anywhere from early April to well into May. I was being sarcastic about 3 freeze ups in June, sort of. I've lost tomato plants in early June when temps bottomed in low 20's. I've seen snow in every month but July and Aug in Maine and that was below 700' elevation.

Quoting 251. georgevandenberghe:



I think they come out in early April in Northern New England, earlier further south like uuhh.. here in DC.





Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A major storm system is expected to affect Ontario Wednesday and Thursday.

A low pressure system developing over the Southern States will track northeast to reach Southern Ontario Wednesday and Northern Ontario Wednesday night. This storm is expected to bring rain and significant snow to some areas, along with the possibility of freezing rain.

The location of the heaviest snow and areas at risk of receiving freezing rain will depend on the track of the low, which is still uncertain at this time. Please refer to weather statements and local forecasts which will be updated with more details as the storm system evolves.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 240. georgevandenberghe:

Upbeat note! Heard my first spring peepers Sunday Feb 21 in College Park MD. Lots of them!

One of the most beautiful and uplifting sounds in nature in my opinion.


New England saying. "first peepers, three more good freeze ups left"



What's a peeper? Baby birds is all that comes to mind...
Ugh, ice Hudson Valley and Adirondacks.

Quoting 258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Quoting 257. Dakster:



What's a peeper? Baby birds is all that comes to mind...


It is a species of tree frog. You can hear them in the evening from just before sunset to late at night on seasonably warm early spring nights if you are near a swampy area with a lot of shallow standing water.
Quoting 256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A major storm system is expected to affect Ontario Wednesday and Thursday.

A low pressure system developing over the Southern States will track northeast to reach Southern Ontario Wednesday and Northern Ontario Wednesday night. This storm is expected to bring rain and significant snow to some areas, along with the possibility of freezing rain.

The location of the heaviest snow and areas at risk of receiving freezing rain will depend on the track of the low, which is still uncertain at this time. Please refer to weather statements and local forecasts which will be updated with more details as the storm system evolves.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.



Stay safe and warm Keeper.

It rained/snowed/rained/snowed and the temp are staying in the upper 30s up here in the last frontier. Very slushy/icy out since the ground is still below freezing.
Quoting 260. georgevandenberghe:



It is a species of tree frog. You can hear them in the evening from just before sunset to late at night on seasonably warm early spring nights if you are near a swampy area with a lot of shallow standing water.


Thanks. Believe it or not, we do have a frog in Alaska... I have only seen one and it was by a river (The Susitina) in the summer, but it wasn't making any noise.
Quoting 254. HaoleboySurfEC:

Where we lived in central Maine, it was highly variable. I remember anywhere from early April to well into May. I was being sarcastic about 3 freeze ups in June, sort of. I've lost tomato plants in early June when temps bottomed in low 20's. I've seen snow in every month but July and Aug in Maine and that was below 700' elevation.




I remember hearing them on warm nights in mid April in Blacksburg VA. This corresponds to early April here in DC. I don't remember when they stop but it's well into spring, not just early spring.

My latest damaging freeze was May 12 or so 2010, an otherwise warm spring. My latest frost was May 23, 2002 but there was no damage and frost was confined to windrows of grass clippings and also mulch. I don't mulch gardens in spring because it increases risk of frost considerably.. a several degree difference in night temperatures on calm clear nights.

Damaging freeze conditions in DC metro occurred June 7, 1977, also a warm spring and summer overall. That is the latest I've seen frost in the DC metro area but it was confined to the worst frost pockets and stream valleys.
I planted my tomato plants outside about May 7 that year and had no problems.
Quoting 260. georgevandenberghe:



It is a species of tree frog. You can hear them in the evening from just before sunset to late at night on seasonably warm early spring nights if you are near a swampy area with a lot of shallow standing water.


The sound they make can be very annoying especially if your trying to sleep the only other sound more annoying is probably cicadas that we have during the summer ..
Quoting 261. Dakster:



Stay safe and warm Keeper.

It rained/snowed/rained/snowed and the temp are staying in the upper 30s up here in the last frontier. Very slushy/icy out since the ground is still below freezing.
I will be on the change over line here for this one so we shall see some of everything precip wise with the added wind blown look for a nice enhancement too go along with it
years ago use too love the sound of the crickets at night after sun went down then around 1 in the morning u hear em but the last 10 years or so don't hear em anymore that and the dance of the monarch in the warm July sun
NO is going to be hit by storms in the next hour or so as thunderstorms are building .. tops still under 20k feet ..
Stay safe if you life along the central Gulf Coast and areas north tomorrow. It could be a pretty scary day.


SPC AC 221715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO
SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...


...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL
AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO
MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BANDS. WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
SRH 300-500 M2 PER S2/.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.


...COASTAL SC...
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 02/22/2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

years ago use too love the sound of the crickets at night after sun went down then around 1 in the morning u hear em but the last 10 years or so don't hear em anymore that and the dance of the monarch in the warm July sun



We have Mole Crickets here .. a couple of years ago there were so many that when you walked across the grass it looked like the whole yard was moving ..
The set-up for the Gulf region tomorrow is becoming more favorable for strong t-storms and tornadic activity; will be an interesting 48 hours along this region as we wait to see when the Texas low will materialize which should force more warm Gulf flow into the mix:



Quoting 274. whitewabit:




We have Mole Crickets here .. a couple of years ago there were so many that when you walked across the grass it looked like the whole yard was moving ..
there still around outside the city I figure it may just be the city they avoid maybe I really don't know why they disappeared but I do remember them when I first came to Toronto in the summer in the 80's and 90's even but once we got to year 2000 things slowly began to change and increased in the speed at which its happening ever since
Okay, I read the news: there is a frog in Alaska.

/lol
Death toll from Winston has jumped from 29 to 42 overnight. I am extremely shocked to see this happening. The last time I saw a death toll rise so fast after a tropical cyclone was after Haiyan in 2013. Damage must be approaching at least $500 million from this one, and its even been described as being the worse cyclone in Fiji's history. This is simply unbelievable to see this happening