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Earth Rings in 2016 With its Warmest January on Record

By: Jeff Masters 7:26 PM GMT on February 17, 2016

After recording its warmest year on record in 2015, Earth continued its record-warm streak into 2016, with January 2016 being the planet's warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. The month had the second warmest departure from average (+1.04°C) of any month since 1880, with only December 2015 being warmer. NASA also rated January 2016 as the warmest January on record, but said it edged out December 2015 for being the warmest month in the entire historical record--1.13°C above average. The four warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in the NASA database) were the past four months. Here are the top five warmest months in the historical record, according to NASA:

1) January 2016
2) December 2015
3) October 2015
4) November 2015
5) January 2007

January 2016 also marked the ninth consecutive month that the monthly temperature record was been broken and the fourteenth consecutive month (since December 2014) that the monthly global temperature ranked among the three warmest for its respective month in the NOAA database. Global ocean temperatures during January 2016 were the warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the second warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in January 2016 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). This is the fourth consecutive month the UAH database has registered a record monthly high.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2016, the warmest January for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across a swath of northern Siberia where temperatures rose at least 5°C (9°F) above the 1981–2010 monthly average, as well as across parts of southeastern Asia, southwestern Asia and the Middle East, most of southern Africa, and areas of Central and South America. Record warmth was observed in all major ocean basins: various regions of the eastern and western Atlantic, particularly near coasts, part of the Barents Sea in the Arctic; the Southeast Indian Ocean to the south of Australia; most of the North Indian Ocean; parts of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific; and the western Mediterranean Sea. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Two billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2016
Two billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during last month, according to the January 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. Both were due to winter weather: Winter Storm Jonas in the Eastern U.S., and a remarkable cold wave in Eastern Asia. Both disasters cost at least $2 billion.


Disaster 1. A massive blizzard rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. January 22 - 24, killing 58 and causing at least $2 billion in damage. The snowstorm was rated the 4th most severe to hit the area in the past 66 years, according to NOAA. In this image, we see residents being forced to walk in the streets of Washington, D.C. during the storm. Image credit: Joe Flood, NOAA.


Disaster 2. One of the most intense cold air outbreaks in decades brought record low temperatures and heavy snowfall throughout much of East Asia January 20 - 25, killing a combined 116 people in Taiwan, Thailand, China, Japan and South Korea. China reported more than $1.6 billion in damage from cold and snow, and Taiwan’s agricultural sector recorded its highest losses in 17 years. Total damage from the winter weather was estimated at $2 billion. In this image, we see row boats stuck in the ice of the frozen coastal waters of Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong province on January 25, 2016. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

Strong El Niño gradually weakening
January 2016 featured strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) ending up 2.5°C above average in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. El Niño peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly Niño3.4 temperature anomaly hit a record 3.1°C. The anomaly was still a hefty +2.5°C this week, and El Niño is not weakening as quickly as many forecasts have predicted. NOAA still expects a transition to neutral conditions during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, though, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall. Many of the El Niño computer models are predicting La  Niña conditions during the August-September-October peak of hurricane season, which could lead to an active Atlantic hurricane season (NOAA"s CFSv2 model is a noteworthy exception, with the latest ensemble average from Feb. 15 suggesting that weak El Niño conditions might hang on through at least autumn 2016.) Even though NOAA has not issued an official "La Nina Watch", the probability is trending towards one, said NOAA El Niño expert Michelle L'Heureux, in an interview with Reuters last week. El Niño model predictions are least likely to be accurate when issued during the period from February to May, though, which is called the "Predictability Barrier" for forecasting El Niño.

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest January extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during January 2016 was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Air temperatures just above the surface, at the 925 mb level, were more than 6 degrees Celsius (13 degrees Fahrenheit) above average across most of the Arctic Ocean. These unusually high air temperatures were likely related to the behavior of the Arctic Oscillation (AO.) While the AO was in a positive phase for most of the autumn and early winter, it turned strongly negative beginning in January. By mid-January, the index reached nearly -5 sigma (five standard deviations) below average. The AO then shifted back to positive during the last week of January.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for January 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 43.0°C (109.4°F) at Linguere , Senegal, January 13
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -55.3°C (-67.5°F) at Summit, Greenland, January 31
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 48.6°C (119.5°F) at Augrabies Falls, South Africa, January 5
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -46.3°C (-51.3°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, January 28
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in January 2016
Sutherland (South Africa) max. 37.9°C, 4 January
Kimberley (South Africa) max. 43.3°C, 5 January
Prieska (South Africa) max. 44.7°C, 5 January
Fraserburg  (South Africa) max. 41.2°C, 5 January
De Aar  (South Africa) max. 42.8°C, 5 January
Upington (South Africa) max. 45.3°C, 5 January
Vanwyksvlei (South Africa) max. 43.9°C, 5 January
Queenstown (South Africa) max. 42.9°C, 5 January
Pofadder  (South Africa) max. 42.4°C, 5 January
Buffelsfontein (South Africa) max. 38.6°C, 5 January
Jamestown (South Africa) max. 38.7°C,  5 January
Cradock (South Africa) max. 43.8°C, 5 January
Van Zylsrus (South Africa) max. 45.4°C, 6 January
Kuruman (South Africa) max. 44.3°C, 6 January
Bloemhof (South Africa) max. 43.7°C, 6 January
Bloemfontein Airport (South Africa) max. 42.0°C, 6 January
Bloemfontein City (South Africa) max. 41.4°C,  6 January
Glen College (South Africa) max. 43.2°C, 6 January
Twee Riviere (South Africa) max. 45.4°C, 6 January
Welkom (South Africa) max. 41.4°C, 6 January
Ottosdal (South Africa) max. 42.4°C, 6 January
Estcourt (South Africa) max. 41.7°C, 6 January
Vryburg (South Africa) max. 43.7°C, 6 January
Ladysmith (South Africa) max. 43.0°C, 6 January
Taung (South Africa) max. 44.6°C, 6 January
Bethlehem (South Africa) max. 37.4°C, 6 January
Kroonstad  (South Africa) max. 41.0°C,  6 January
Bothaville  (South Africa) max. 41.8°C, 6 January
Royal National Park  (South Africa) max. 39.7°C, 6 January
Werda (Botswana) max. 43.3°C,  6 January
Tsabong (Botswana) max. 43.5°C,  6 January: New national record high for Botswana
Maun (Botswana) max. 43.8°C, 7 January: New national record high for Botswana
Gaborone (Botswana) max. 42.7°C, 7 January
Jwaneng (Botswana) max. 41.9°C, 7 January
Pretoria City  (South Africa) max. 42.7°C,   7 January
Pretoria Airport (South Africa) max. 38.7°C, 7 January
Johannesburg (South Africa) max. 38.9°C,  7 January
Johannesburg Aiport (South Africa) max. 35.9°C, 7 January
Frankfort (South Africa) max. 40.4°C,  7 January
Rustenburg (South Africa) max. 41.6°C, 7 January
Oudestad (South Africa) max. 42.5°C, 7 January
Ellisras (South Africa) max. 44.5°C,  7 January
Thabazimbi (South Africa) max. 44.7°C,  7 January
Warmbaths Towoomba (South Africa) max. 43.7°C,  7 January
Marico  (South Africa) max. 45.0°C, 7 January
Buffelspoort  (South Africa) max. 42.4°C, 7 January
Mara (South Africa) max. 42.4, 7 January
Bulawayo Airport (Zimbabwe) max. 39.3°C, 7 January
Gweru (Zimbabwe) max. 37.0°C, 7 January
Binga (Zimbabwe) max. 42.4°C, 8 January
Futuna Aiport (Wallis and Futuna, France) max. 35.8°C,  10 January: New territorial record high for Wallis and Futuna
Ambon (Indonesia) max. 36.0°C,  22 January
Xiamen (China) min. 0.1°C, 24 January
Fuzhou (China) min. -1.9°C, 24 January
Dachen Dao (China) min. -4.1°C, 24 January
Dongsha Dao (China) min. 12.6°C, 24 January
Tai Mo Shan (Hong Kong, China) min. -5.7°C,  24 January: New Territorial record low for Hong Kong
Su' ao (Taiwan) min. 5.0°C, 24 January
Xinwu  (Taiwan) min. 4.2°C, 24 January
Anbu (Taiwan) min. -3.7°C, 24 January
Zhuzihu (Taiwan) min. -1.5°C, 24 January
Kinmen (Taiwan) min. 1.3°C, 24 January
Matsu (Taiwan) min. 0.3°C, 24 January
Onoaida (Japan) min. 0.6°C, 24 January
Okinoerabu (Japan) min. 4.7°C,  24 January
Hitoyoshi  (Japan) min. -9.8°C, 25 January
Okuchi (Japan) min. -15.2°C, 25 January
Ue (Japan) min. -13.8°C, 25 January
Kakutou (Japan) min. -12.0°C, 25 January
Satsuma-Kashiwabaru (Japan) min. -10.8°C, 25 January
Tashiro (Japan) min. -10.4°C, 25 January
Shiroishi (Japan) min. -9.6°C, 25 January
Tokashiki (Japan) min. 3.7°C, 25 January
Itokazu (Japan) min. 4.1°C, 25 January
Izena (Japan) min. 5.2°C, 25 January
Ibaruma (Japan) min. 7.6°C, 25 January
Sibolga (Indonesia) max. 37.1°C,  27 January
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Three all-time national heat records and one all-time cold record set through mid-February 2016
Just over one month into the year, three nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2016, and one (Hong Kong) has set an all-time cold temperature record. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records so far:

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun. The old record was set just the previous day  (January 6, 2016) with 43.5°C (110.3°F) at Tsabong. The record heat in Botswana during the first week of January was part of a remarkable heat wave that affected much of southern Africa, causing at least $250 million in drought-related damages to South Africa in January. Mr. Herrera noted in an email to me that temperatures in South Africa at elevations between 1000 and 1600 meters were higher than any previous temperatures ever recorded at those altitudes anywhere in the world. The national heat records of Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and Swaziland might all have fallen were it not for the lack of observing stations in the hottest areas. Lesotho has no weather stations that issue the standard "synoptic" weather observations every six hours anymore; Mozambique and Swaziland have closed all their stations in the hottest areas; and Namibia just closed its Noordower station, which was its hottest station.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time national heat record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula. The previous record was a 35.7°C (96.3°F) reading just the previous day (February 7, 2016) at the Bauerfield Efate Airport. All seven major weather reporting stations in Vanuatu beat or tied their all-time heat records February 7 - 8, 2016.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -5.7°C (21.7°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

We'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.

We may see Snowzilla's in law next week if everything aligns perfectly.Still a 8 days out though but storm will be in the vicinity of the east coast.
Thank You Dr. I keep on seeing that pile-up of warm water along that stretch off the US East Coast/Canadian maritimes where the Gulf Stream flows before it curves into the anomalous cold pool off the coast of Greenland and keep on thinking mmmmmmmmmm
Here are the top five warmest months in the historical record, according to NASA:

1) January 2016
2) December 2015
3) October 2015
4) November 2015
5) January 2007


January 2016 is the warmest month in historical record, or is it the warmest January in historical record? If the latter, I think this needs to be reworded in the blog.
Thanks, time to move to higher ground I think!
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

Thanks Doc.

We may see Snowzilla's in law next week if everything aligns perfectly.Still a 8 days out though but storm will be in the vicinity of the east coast.


At wife's insistence I still have the snow lights on.
Quoting 4. tampabaymatt:

Here are the top five warmest months in the historical record, according to NASA:

1) January 2016
2) December 2015
3) October 2015
4) November 2015
5) January 2007


January 2016 is the warmest month in historical record, or is it the warmest January in historical record? If the latter, I think this needs to be reworded in the blog.


I would believe the former. Think globally - the southern hemisphere endured "the dogs days of summer" in January.

Edit: someone with more expertise can provide a better response.
Quoting 6. georgevandenberghe:



At wife's insistence I still have the snow lights on.


I always remember growing up in MN that our biggest stow storms happened in March when the warm Spring air moved in and collided with the cold air in place. With Global Warming those storms might start happening a month earlier in February.
Thanks Doc. The cold pool in the North Atlantic is growing..Gulf Stream looking different these days. Pushed south by cold water believe.
I like where we sit with the Euro. Lot's of high pressure over Canada. Looks similar to the UKMET 12z.
Global warming may have made the zika outbreak as bad as it is? El-Nino combined with some of the warmerst winter months on record, that's a nasty combo for mosquito population growth.
And JB will still find a way to discount this report. Heading towards a La Nina watch - shhhhhh. Don't tell our best friend.
For those that knew a long time blogger on WU many years ago .. His blogging handle was Damom85013

Damon Lee Klein was buried Monday Feb 15th in Westfield, NJ at Solomon Memorial Park, Westfield, NJ ..

His obit is in the Westfield, NJ paper ..

Damon you are missed RIP !! You will always be a WUBA !!
Thanks for all the hard work, Doc. World's weather and climate news really aren't exhilarating right now ...

El Niño drought leaves 1 million African children severely malnourished - UN
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Wed, 17 Feb 2016 11:50 GMT
BARCELONA, Feb 17 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Nearly 1 million children need treatment for severe malnutrition in eastern and southern Africa due to drought that is putting millions more at risk of hunger, water shortages and disease, the U.N. children's agency said on Wednesday.
Even though the powerful El Niño weather phenomenon blamed for the drought is forecast to dissipate in the coming months, its impact on people in affected countries will last far longer, the United Nations has warned.
"El Niño... will wane, but the cost to children - many who were already living hand-to-mouth - will be felt for years to come," said Leila Gharagozloo-Pakkala, regional director for east and southern Africa with the U.N. Children's Fund (UNICEF).
"Governments are responding with available resources, but this is an unprecedented situation. Children's survival is dependent on action taken today," she added in a statement.
In a late January update, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said El Niño would affect more than 60 million people across parts of Africa, the Pacific, Asia and Latin America. ...


El Niño is causing global food crisis, UN warns
The Guardian, Wednesday 17 February 2016 00.01 GMT
Severe droughts and floods have ruined harvests, and left nearly 100 million people in southern Africa, Asia and Latin America facing food and water shortages.
Severe droughts and floods triggered by one of the strongest El Niño weather events ever recorded have left nearly 100 million people in southern Africa, Asia and Latin America facing food and water shortages and vulnerable to diseases including Zika, UN bodies, international aid agencies and governments have said.
New figures from the UN’s World Food Programme say 40 million people in rural areas and 9 million in urban centres who live in the drought-affected parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, Malawi and Swaziland will need food assistance in the next year.
In addition, 10 million people are said by the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) to need food in Ethiopia (pdf), and 2.8 million need assistance in Guatemala and Honduras. ...


Quoting 8. 69Viking:



I always remember growing up in MN that our biggest stow storms happened in March when the warm Spring air moved in and collided with the cold air in place. With Global Warming those storms might start happening a month earlier in February.


Not quite true. I think this could be do to you remembering good storms always happening around hockey tourny time.

As far a famous storms in history the list is as follows,
Oct: 3 storms
Nov: 13 storms
Dec: 2 storms
Jan: 7 storms
Feb: 6 storms
Mar: 7 storms
Apr: 1 storm

The list above does not include the winters below

Then of course the winters of 1995-1996 and 1996-1997, which if you lived here at that time you will never forget. In this time span we endured 17 Blizzards
(from last blog)
Quoting 243. tampabaymatt:

Does this model (GEOS-5) perform better than the other models? To be honest, I see zero mention of this model anywhere except for your posts, so I'm wondering what you like about it relative to the other main models.

I find it pretty accurate at times. It certainly is a nice guide to look at along with other models. It is unique in that it's a global model and a mesoscale model at the same time, it also takes into consideration a variety of pollutants and aerosols & how they interact with weather.. I would have never forecast that worst ever air pollution coming to China a few months back with the GFS or ECMWF..

It's been a while since I compared them & just about all have been upgraded since but it's always been comparable or better than the major models with computer power, depth through the atmosphere, resolution & such.

This is the simplistic description..GEOS-5 is just one aspect of GMAO. Here is a more in depth description.

Global Mesoscale Modeling

Current computing capacity enables GMAO to simulate the entire globe at spatial resolutions previously only possible with regional models. These "global mesoscale model" simulations serve for forefront evaluations of model performance and form the basis for Observing System Simulation Experiments.

Alongside the need to predict weather at fine, localized scales, global mesoscale modeling has two main applications in the GMAO. First, it is essential for NASA to be able to simulate existing and future types of observations with a resolution that is close to the footprint size of the satellite instruments. GMAO's activities in this area include application of global mesoscale models to simulate the atmospheric state with fine spatio-temporal detail. This applies to representations of weather, such as winds, clouds, and precipitation, as well as to the distributions of atmospheric pollutants. Second, as increased computing power routinely allows the use of models with finer spatial resolution and physical complexity, GMAO is pioneering the use of ultra-high-resolution global mesoscale models.

Testing the fidelity of these models today is one step towards the evaluation of the systems that will be in routine use for weather forecasting within the next five to ten years. One aspect of this work is the application of high-resolution versions of GEOS-5 to "climate downscaling" which has typically been performed using regional models.


The GFS does go out farther in time (for daily weather), it is run more often and GEOS-5 is run more in the rears with it initializing in real time on real conditions, but isn't published near as soon. (The GFS & ECMWF 00Z run comes out hours sooner than the same run on GEOS-5.)

NASA overall has to observe the earth to get to space. They have created an incredible model that has various products like ENSO & seasonal but then there is others, many of which gfs & ecmwf couldn't begin to put out. It's NASA, so essentially it's used by NASA for various needs and not by NOAA for forecasting, though there is some joint development with NOAA on this. Redundancy in government tends to get looked over for slashing. So overall the purposes for both can't be the same and they aren't. It is a little more experimental/cutting edge and for research than gfs & ECMWF, though NASA uses it's weather model in forecasting for it's facilities, launch needs and such. And like stated they are essentially testing things with this model they expect to implement into the major weather models in 5-10years, Usually it isn't included in mass model verification except for ENSO forecasting, so I can't really show you a graph showing exactly how it compares on all fronts to the others. I like to bring it here because I think it's a useful compliment to what others bring and to compare it to the other models.

Didn't really seem like the GFS or ECMWF did this good on the 2005 hurricane season even from a few weeks out. In the related media below it is a link to CO2 modeling which our other models don't make forecasts for. In ways it's in a different league or class of models.

Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5): Nature Run

Published on Dec 1, 2013 by Universe Odyssey
This visualization shows a Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) run of the 2005 Hurricane Season driven by Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). The simulation was seeded at the beginning of the run and then ran on its own to create the 6 months of output visualized here. What's interesting is that even though the model did not perfectly duplicate all 27 storms from that very active 2005 hurricane season, it does show 23 storms during that same period. Considering this was an anomalous year, the model did a good job of simulating the large number of storms for that season. An innovative aspect of this global model is the ability to represent realistic hurricane intensities, including 6 hurricanes in the Atlantic for 2005 reaching major strength (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). This finding could help shape future climate models in predicting hurricane season intensities.

Ocean colors ranging from blue to orange depict air temperatures 2 meters (T2M) above sea level. Since SSTs are typically measured at sea level and below, the T2M model output behaves somewhat differently. Nonetheless, it is a reasonable proxy to SST. Landcover information is taken from the Next Generation Blue Marble dataset. Sea Ice is depicted as solid white and clouds are shades of white.

Related Media

A Year In The Life Of Earth’s CO2 (Carbon Dioxyde):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vN3E...

Completed: November 22, 2011

Animators: Alex Kekesi (GST) (Lead)
Greg Shirah (NASA/GSFC)
Scientist: William Putman (NASA/GSFC)

Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Thankfully it appears that a wind storm will not be in my future. However, it seems someone in the Pacific Northwest will be impacted. I suppose it'll be clear what will happen when it begins tomorrow.

An excerpt from the 9AM Seattle NWS Discussion:

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW. THE 12Z GFS20 DEVELOPS THE LOW TO 977MB THEN WRAPS IT AROUND ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SLAMS IT INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z NAM12 AND 00Z ECMWF TAKE THE MAIN LOW CENTER INTO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND WHILE TAKING A MODERATE TRIPLE POINT FEATURE INLAND SOMEWHERE AROUND OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ALL OF THE MODELS TAKE WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OLD BENT-BACK OCCLUSION INTO NW OREGON THEN LIFT IT N ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL LIKELY GET BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS WINDY AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A 6-12 HOUR BURST OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES ABOVE 3500 FEET.
ALBRECHT
Quoting 15. nymore:



Not quite true. I think this could be do to you remembering good storms always happening around hockey tourny time.

As far a famous storms in history the list is as follows,
Oct: 3 storms
Nov: 13 storms
Dec: 2 storms
Jan: 7 storms
Feb: 6 storms
Mar: 7 storms
Apr: 1 storm

The list above does not include the winters below

Then of course the winters of 1995-1996 and 1996-1997, which if you lived here at that time you will never forget. In this time span we endured 17 Blizzards



I left SE MN in 89 so my memory is from the late 70's through the 80's. I think what I remember most about the March storms is that they were always mostly wet, heavy snows. Anyways I'm just saying you always expected big winter storms in Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb and just when you thought Winter was over a big storm would hit in March more often than not!
Great blog Dr Masters. I've been watching the Arctic for weeks, satellite pass by satellite pass mostly. The train of Lows from the east side of Greenland have been ice wreckers.

And the only cold spot is the southeastern US, which has been the exception of global warming for quite a few years now. I'm wondering if this will be the norm in the future. Maybe a hundred years from now the eastern US will feature continental to subarctic climates while the northern plains will warm up to a subtropical climate and west coast a tropical climate.
Quoting 15. nymore:



Not quite true. I think this could be do to you remembering good storms always happening around hockey tourny time.

As far a famous storms in history the list is as follows,
Oct: 3 storms
Nov: 13 storms
Dec: 2 storms
Jan: 7 storms
Feb: 6 storms
Mar: 7 storms
Apr: 1 storm

The list above does not include the winters below

Then of course the winters of 1995-1996 and 1996-1997, which if you lived here at that time you will never forget. In this time span we endured 17 Blizzards



The Midwest and especially the Northern and Western Plains have fall and spring maxima for snow with a winter minumum because of lack (at least in the past) of warm moist air incursions required for heavy dumps. Here in the Mid Atlantic we obviously have a winter maximum. Spring and fall totals are likely to decrease with warming but winter average totals may well increase with warming.
Great look on the ECMWF EPS 12z with a benchmark track:

From Jonathan Erdman
Why forecasting an E. Coast storm's details 7 days out isn't possible. Jet disturbance 4000 mi. away from W. Coast.

Exactly......
Quoting 13. whitewabit:

For those that knew a long time blogger on WU many years ago .. His blogging handle was Damom85013

Damon Lee Klein was buried Monday Feb 15th in Westfield, NJ at Solomon Memorial Park, Westfield, NJ ..

His obit is in the Westfield, NJ paper ..

Damon you are missed RIP !! You will always be a WUBA !!
Godspeed to Damon and family.
Quoting 18. 69Viking:



I left SE MN in 89 so my memory is from the late 70's through the 80's. I think what I remember most about the March storms is that they were always mostly wet, heavy snows. Anyways I'm just saying you always expected big winter storms in Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb and just when you thought Winter was over a big storm would hit in March more often than not!

In northern Mn where I live anytime from Oct. - Apr you are on the look out for big storms. It is a state of extremes with a temperature range of 175 degrees between High and Low temp records and unofficially a little more
Quoting 24. Bucsboltsfan:

From Jonathan Erdman
Why forecasting an E. Coast storm's details 7 days out isn't possible. Jet disturbance 4000 mi. away from W. Coast.

Exactly......
They'll be nothing going on weather wise here in the Mid-atlantic for the next 6 days.Its fun to discuss winter weather and no one is giving absolutes or guarantees right now.All we know is that a storm will be on the east coast and exact details won't be clear until Sunday or Monday.
Dr Jeff Masters-"A massive blizzard rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. January 16 - 18, killing 58 and causing at least $2 billion in damage."


I know you meant January 22-24. :^)
Quoting 4. tampabaymatt:

Here are the top five warmest months in the historical record, according to NASA:

1) January 2016
2) December 2015
3) October 2015
4) November 2015
5) January 2007


January 2016 is the warmest month in historical record, or is it the warmest January in historical record? If the latter, I think this needs to be reworded in the blog.
The criteria being used is warmest based on departure from normal rather than absolute temperature, so I think January is warmest based on departure from normal. I don't think it would be possible to have a month with the warmest absolute temperatures outside of hemispheric summer.
Quoting 23. Drakoen:

Great look on the ECMWF EPS 12z with a benchmark track:


Hmmm a sub 1000mb low on an ensemble mean 8 days out.......... not that common.

Really fascinating to see the snow/rain line expected for this storm have such a sharp cutoff the entire length of the system. Going to be very wet on the east coast next week if this holds up.
Quoting 16. Skyepony:

(from last blog)

I find it pretty accurate at times. It certainly is a nice guide to look at along with other models. It is unique in that it's a global model and a mesoscale model at the same time, it also takes into consideration a variety of pollutants and aerosols & how they interact with weather.. I would have never forecast that worst ever air pollution coming to China a few months back with the GFS or ECMWF..

It's been a while since I compared them & just about all have been upgraded since but it's always been comparable or better than the major models with computer power, depth through the atmosphere, resolution & such.
Is there somewhere I can find any kind of validation data for the forecasting component of GEOS-5? I've looked all over the GEOS-5 site and can't find it if it exists. I'm a lot more cautious about using an experimental model that's only a little over a year old for weather forecasting with no idea beyond my own memory of how well the model verifies.
Quoting 31. LuckySD:


Really fascinating to see the snow/rain line expected for this storm have such a sharp cutoff the entire length of the system. Going to be very wet on the east coast next week if this holds up.
Levi explained this last week. The model only runs every 12 hours for forecasts that far out. The freeze line isn't handled well that far out, and it is usually over forecasts for position and impact. The GFS last week was predicting snow in south Alabama when we actually got tornadoes. I'd expect that line to undergo some significant changes once it's 72 hours and less.
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Be very cautious with GFS SOI forecasts... doubt we drop to -5 to -6 standard deviations.
Quoting 21. reallyyyy:

And the only cold spot is the southeastern US, which has been the exception of global warming for quite a few years now. I'm wondering if this will be the norm in the future. Maybe a hundred years from now the eastern US will feature continental to subarctic climates while the northern plains will warm up to a subtropical climate and west coast a tropical climate.


I hunt in SW Alabama and trust me there is no cold spot in the Southeast, not at least in this part of it. The last few hunting seasons have been very warm. Instead of enjoying hunting when it's nice and cold with no worry about bugs we are battling bugs throughout the entire hunting season now which runs October through February. In January and February this year we've seen temps of 70 or higher which never happened on a regular basis 10 years ago. We used to have low temps during the hunting season get down into the teens. The lowest temp we've seen the past couple of years is 24, it's just not as cold as it used to be.
Quoting 29. sar2401:

The criteria being used is warmest based on departure from normal rather than absolute temperature, so I think January is warmest based on departure from normal. I don't think it would be possible to have a month with the warmest absolute temperatures outside of hemispheric summer.


That was my thought exactly.
Quoting 21. reallyyyy:

And the only cold spot is the southeastern US, which has been the exception of global warming for quite a few years now. I'm wondering if this will be the norm in the future. Maybe a hundred years from now the eastern US will feature continental to subarctic climates while the northern plains will warm up to a subtropical climate and west coast a tropical climate.


In most recent months December was extremely warm and January was cool. We haven't had a good freeze in 3 years. We need one to kill off the mosquitos.
P just noted how the storm next week
looks to have a huge moisture feed.
Quoting 34. sar2401:

Levi explained this last week. The model only runs every 12 hours for forecasts that far out. The freeze line isn't handled well that far out, and it is usually over forecasts for position and impact. The GFS last week was predicting snow in south Alabama when we actually got tornadoes. I'd expect that line to undergo some significant changes once it's 72 hours and less.
Makes sense. I was looking at the models for this weekend to see if I could expect any weather for a short trip I'm taking, and just kept advancing the timer lol. It would be rather interesting to have a cutoff line that long actually happen though, you have to admit. Does that Levi post here often?
Quoting 29. sar2401:

The criteria being used is warmest based on departure from normal rather than absolute temperature, so I think January is warmest based on departure from normal. I don't think it would be possible to have a month with the warmest absolute temperatures outside of hemispheric summer.


Correct. July or August 2015 were likely the warmest months on record in absolute terms for the globe, since July and August are when the peak global temperature is realized. However, neither NASA nor NOAA keep track of temperatures in that manner.

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters
Quoting 28. Tornado6042008X:

Dr Jeff Masters-"A massive blizzard rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. January 16 - 18, killing 58 and causing at least $2 billion in damage."


I know you meant January 22-24. :^)


Indeed! I appreciate the correction, and have fixed the dates.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 23. Drakoen:

Great look on the ECMWF EPS 12z with a benchmark track:


The GFS shows the low much further south and west, much deeper, and inland compared to the exact same time period for the ECMWF. There are some pretty significant differences to get worked out over the next several days.

Well it is a balmy 27 out and a perfect day for some ice fishing. Time to go fire up the truck and drive out onto the lake.

Have a good afternoon all
Quoting 40. LuckySD:

Makes sense. I was looking at the models for this weekend to see if I could expect any weather for a short trip I'm taking, and just kept advancing the timer lol. It would be rather interesting to have a cutoff line that long actually happen though, you have to admit. Does that Levi post here often?
It would be interesting, and even more so since it's so unlikely. The freezing lind tends to be pretty sloppy once we get down to the mesoscale details. Global models are really bad about being able to see things like local topography and exact placement of the low and who gets rain, freezing rain, or snow. Forecasters have a tough enough time getting that right just before it happens let alone a global model seven or eight days out. It's entertaining to look at as long as you realize that a lot of what's there won't happen like forecast.

Levi Cowan is the guy behind TropicalTidBits.com, the source of almost all the model runs you see posted here. He started posting here when he was quite young, something like 13 or 14 years old as I remember. He's now a graduate met student at FSU and, in his spare time of twelve minutes a day, has managed to put together what is one of the top ten weather websites for real weather geeks. He's truly one of the smartest guys in this room.
Quoting 45. sar2401:

It would be interesting, and even more so since it's so unlikely. The freezing lind tends to be pretty sloppy once we get down to the mesoscale details. Global models are really bad about being able to see things like local topography and exact placement of the low and who gets rain, freezing rain, or snow. Forecasters have a tough enough time getting that right just before it happens let alone a global model seven or eight days out. It's entertaining to look at as long as you realize that a lot of what's there won't happen like forecast.

Levi Cowan is the guy behind TropicalTidBits.com, the source of almost all the model runs you see posted here. He started posting here when he was quite young, something like 13 or 14 years old as I remember. He's now a graduate met student at FSU and, in his spare time of twelve minutes a day, has managed to put together what is one of the top ten weather websites for real weather geeks. He's truly one of the smartest guys in this room.


Yeah, also my sister lives down in southern Virginia and she told me it was around 28 degrees and it was raining (freezing rain of course) . That's very common across the Southern Plains, but not nearly as common along the East Coast.

So the freezing line doesn't necessarily mean the precipitation is going to be snow.
Quoting 43. sar2401:

The GFS shows the low much further south and west, much deeper, and inland compared to the exact same time period for the ECMWF. There are some pretty significant differences to get worked out over the next several days.




The synoptic features in Canada are vital to how this storm plays out. The ECMWF has High Pressure in place when the GFS has a low in place which creates vastly different results. The ensembles of both models agree more with the ECMWF 12z and the GFS 12z Para (below) show a similar evolution to the ECMWF.

Quoting 38. Bucsboltsfan:



In most recent months December was extremely warm and January was cool. We haven't had a good freeze in 3 years. We need one to kill off the mosquitos.
Ignoring the crazy warmth of December, it's been a pretty typical winter up the road in SE Alabama. We had our first night below freezing on November 15, and have had 14 nights at or below freezing since. My lowest temperature so far has been 23, about 2 degrees above average for minimum temperature by mid-February. Last winter was one of the coldest we've had in decades with 56 days below freezing, 38 days below 25, and 11 days in the teens. The absolute low temperature was 10. In 2014, we had one of the biggest snow and ice storms since the 1950's, and the temperature didn't get above freezing for almost three days after the storm. I don't know how you've managed to escape all this in central Florida but, somehow, you have.
Quoting 38. Bucsboltsfan:



In most recent months December was extremely warm and January was cool. We haven't had a good freeze in 3 years. We need one to kill off the mosquitos.


So far the coldest temperature I've hit this Winter here in south Fort Myers is 41 degrees.
Quoting 47. Drakoen:



The synoptic features in Canada are vital to how this storm plays out. The ECMWF has High Pressure in place when the GFS has a low in place which creates vastly different results. The ensembles of both models agree more with the ECMWF 12z and the GFS 12z Para (below) show a similar evolution to the ECMWF.


It still looks like a fair bit of disagreement about where the low will actually reside by the time it gets to you. That, plus how much WAA you get, seems like it's going to be critical to what kind of precipitation you get.

According to WU, this is good for about 2 tenths of an inch.
I had to email the station to get them to update this graphic,
they were a whole 7 days behind. They did it minutes after my email. sweet.
Quoting 41. JeffMasters:



Correct. July or August 2015 were likely the warmest months on record in absolute terms for the globe, since July and August are when the peak global temperature is realized. However, neither NASA nor NOAA keep track of temperatures in that manner.

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters


While I can be a little slow at times, it's pretty confusing Dr. Masters. If NASA and NOAA aren't keeping track of temperatures, how do they know what the departure from normal is? I just think it needs to be clarified what we're actually looking at here: warmest month when compared to all months of recorded history?, warmest month when compared to average for that month?, or something else? In the text of the blog, you state that January 2016 is the warmest month in the historical record, which doesn't seem to be the case. It appears it's the warmest January in the historical record.
NWS
THE PATTERN THEN ONCE AGAIN REVERTS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE POKING NORTH TOWARDS THE POLAR REGIONS OVER WESTERN
NOAM WITH TROUGHING DIGGING IN THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
HOW THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE THERE
IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW GIVEN
THE MODEL SPREAD/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. THE STORM OCCURRING IN THE
MIDST OF THIS PATTERN SHIFT MEANS THE MODELS MAY STRUGGLE TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT
TELECONNECTIONS (BUILDING +PNA...AO/NAO TRENDING FROM POS TO NEG)
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO BUT IN REVERSE ORDER
/I.E. START AS LIQUID AND TRANSITION TO WINTRY/ AS THE SYSTEM THAT
JUST IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK.

Why do they type in all caps? lol
Quoting 46. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, also my sister lives down in southern Virginia and she told me it was around 28 degrees and it was raining (freezing rain of course) . That's very common across the Southern Plains, but not nearly as common along the East Coast.

So the freezing line doesn't necessarily mean the precipitation is going to be snow.
No, it doesn't. How warm or cold the air is at 850 mb is a lot more important. I think it was George who ran into freezing rain coming back from Ohio a couple of days ago when the temperature was 20. Even the position of the freezing line isn't as important as when the precipitation arrives and departs. I don't know how many time the models have showed snow down here because the temperature was going to be cold enough to place us north of the freezing line. That was true, but the precipitation left or didn't arrive in time for the precipitation to take advantage of the cold temperatures. I have zero confidence in any model being able to make these fine distinctions eight days out.
Quoting 35. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Be very cautious with GFS SOI forecasts... doubt we drop to -5 to -6 standard deviations.
There's a good article over at Scientific American that explains the concept of five sigma. It's not what most people think it is.
Quoting 12. Bucsboltsfan:

And JB will still find a way to discount this report. Heading towards a La Nina watch - shhhhhh. Don't tell our best friend.
Actually JB agrees with these forecast, after this Nino is toast, the AMO and PDO turn cold, then we will see where the temps end up and who is right or wrong, sure would be something if he is right, wouldn't it. This should occur around 2030 or so according to him.
Every State’s Temperature Trend for Every Season

A winter heat wave is spreading inland from the West Coast and could bring unseasonable warmth spanning from coast-to-coast by the weekend.

Southern California is on track to continue setting hot temperature records, Phoenix will have its earliest first 90°F day of the year, and parts of the South could see temperatures 20°-30°F above normal.

While the heat is unusual in its magnitude, warmer winters in the U.S. are becoming the rule, not the exception. It’s the fastest-warming season for 37 states that roughly 220 million people call home.

More ...
Quoting 54. sar2401:

No, it doesn't. How warm or cold the air is at 850 mb is a lot more important. I think it was George who ran into freezing rain coming back from Ohio a couple of days ago when the temperature was 20. Even the position of the freezing line isn't as important as when the precipitation arrives and departs. I don't know how many time the models have showed snow down here because the temperature was going to be cold enough to place us north of the freezing line. That was true, but the precipitation left or didn't arrive in time for the precipitation to take advantage of the cold temperatures. I have zero confidence in any model being able to make these fine distinctions eight days out.


Yes it was me. The most extreme conditions were just east of Frostburg where I encountered 18F and rain.
Temperatures were 23F or below from Grantsville to about 20 miles east of Cumberland, a distance of about 50 miles. On the final stretch of 270 from Frederick to the DC Beltway I encounterd 28F with summer intensity showers. These could not freeze nearly as fast as they fell.

Models usually handle the transition from rain/freezing.something/snow pretty well. It's a matter of getting the warm nose intensity and sounding temperatures right. The transition between ice pellets and freezing rain is tough because they come from similar soundings. Freezing rain is more likely with shallower more intensely cold air and ice pellets with deeper less cold air. Ice pellets can also occur at above freezing temps if there is an elevated freezing layer.. fairly common.

The other really tough problem is freezing drizzle v,s, snow, the former can occur when the whole sounding is well below freezing, a situation where one would expect snow. Freezing drizzle is more likely with less intense vertical motion and low cloud bases. If there is a temperature below -15C anywhere in the cloud layer, you'll almost always get snow but isothermal saturated cold low levels that don't reach this temperature may instead have supercooled water droplets. Any source of ice crystals OR good (freezing supporting) condensation nuclei make for snow. We don't usually get into the microphysics of the CCN when forecasting ptype but it deserves a closer look in my opinion

The four warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in the NASA database) were the past four months.


what part of 'hiatus' are you fancy science guys having so much trouble with?!
Quoting 52. tampabaymatt:



While I can be a little slow at times, it's pretty confusing Dr. Masters. If NASA and NOAA aren't keeping track of temperatures, how do they know what the departure from normal is? I just think it needs to be clarified what we're actually looking at here: warmest month when compared to all months of recorded history?, warmest month when compared to average for that month?, or something else? In the text of the blog, you state that January 2016 is the warmest month in the historical record, which doesn't seem to be the case. It appears it's the warmest January in the historical record.


Indeed, this is the warmest January in the historical record (going back more than a century]. As Jeff points out, global temperatures are normally warmer in July and August than in January and February. NOAA data for the 20th century showed that there is roughly a 7°F global spread between July and January. This means that July 2015 was far warmer than January 2016 in an absolute sense. The more important variable for measuring month-by-month trends in global heat is the temperature relative to the monthly norm, which is why all of the major agencies release their monthly reports in terms of anomalies. Here is some more background from NASA:

The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature (SAT)
Quoting 24. Bucsboltsfan:

From Jonathan Erdman
Why forecasting an E. Coast storm's details 7 days out isn't possible. Jet disturbance 4000 mi. away from W. Coast.

Exactly......

But, but....it's what I want to happen, so it absolutely, positively has to be true
Quoting 52. tampabaymatt:



While I can be a little slow at times, it's pretty confusing Dr. Masters. If NASA and NOAA aren't keeping track of temperatures, how do they know what the departure from normal is? I just think it needs to be clarified what we're actually looking at here: warmest month when compared to all months of recorded history?, warmest month when compared to average for that month?, or something else? In the text of the blog, you state that January 2016 is the warmest month in the historical record, which doesn't seem to be the case. It appears it's the warmest January in the historical record.


Yes NOAA and NASA do keep track of temperatures. January 2016 has the warmest anomaly on record, not just the warmest January. That is why the others of the top five months are not all January(s). The idea is not to compare January to July because they are two different things, but it is the warmer anomaly when compared to the historical average of the same month. Was that redundant? Sorry
Winston was busy on its eyewall today:



Tonga braces for Cyclone Winston: Zika virus complicates picture
Thursday, 18 February 2016, 11:07 am, Press Release: Oxfam
As Cyclone Winston bears down on Tonga, Oxfam New Zealand is preparing a two-pronged response: helping local communities recover from cyclone damage and ensuring the risk of the present Zika virus spreading is minimised.
Earlier this week Cyclone Winston tracked closely near Vanuatu then turned towards Tonga, crossing Vava'u as a Category Two causing power outages and damage to crops. Winston then left Vava'u but stormed back towards the islands. It's now picking up speed and will potentially increase in strength to Category Four as it reaches Vava'u a second time.
Oxfam is ready to send emergency staff to Tonga if needed, to assess the situation on the ground to identify the most urgent needs. We are working closely with the Tongan government to monitor threat of the Zika virus. ....


Emergency workers out in Niue as Winston passes
Updated at 9:22 am today
The abundance of warm waters in the Pacific is one reason why Cyclone Winston is predicted to turn and impact Tonga and Fiji for a second time.
A climate scientist at New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, or NIWA, Nava Fedaeff, said El Nino meant the warm waters provided plenty of scope for cyclones to change track.
"Well one of the reasons why is just because of El Nino, there are larger area of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and you need to have warm water, at least 26.5 degrees, to have tropical cyclones.
"And when you've got a bigger pool, they've just got more places to go."
Mr Fedaeff said the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern was also in a negative phase, meaning warmer than usual waters in the Western Pacific. ...



From the article above.

NASA sees Tropical Cyclone Winston intensifying near Tonga
February 17, 2016 by Rob Gutro


Winston should go into reverse now to follow this track. Here the storm's history.
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

NWS
THE PATTERN THEN ONCE AGAIN REVERTS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE POKING NORTH TOWARDS THE POLAR REGIONS OVER WESTERN
NOAM WITH TROUGHING DIGGING IN THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
HOW THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE THERE
IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW GIVEN
THE MODEL SPREAD/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. THE STORM OCCURRING IN THE
MIDST OF THIS PATTERN SHIFT MEANS THE MODELS MAY STRUGGLE TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT
TELECONNECTIONS (BUILDING PNA...AO/NAO TRENDING FROM POS TO NEG)
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO BUT IN REVERSE ORDER
/I.E. START AS LIQUID AND TRANSITION TO WINTRY/ AS THE SYSTEM THAT
JUST IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK.

Why do they type in all caps? lol


I don't know but the bandwidth required to transmit an all caps document with a reduced bit size character set is less than required to transmit both upper and lowercase. Bandwidth in the 50s over teletype lines was very very VERY limited! Now it's trivial and modern (post 50s) character sets all use at least six bits (64 states) to represent
a character but old old old habits die hard. Actually everyone uses ASCII (8 bits) now but IBM ECBCDC and CDC 6bit displcode are ancient ones I remember.

I am not certain of this however.

Even now in the 21'st century ALL CAPS is tempting on my touchscreen devices to reduce shifting and speed typing. That's a finger speed issue for me not 4G or Wifi bandwidth
o
Quoting 62. ACSeattle:


But, but....it's what I want to happen, so it absolutely, positively has to be true
A storm will be in the vicinity of the east coast because the pattern supports it.We never said such and such run of a model would be the finale out come because specific details at this point in time are minuscule.

Is there some ego stroking contest going on today that I don't know about?

Source. Latest visible from Uriah in the south Indian Ocean. Nice appearance (Cat 4) but going south soon in every meaning.

Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

NWS
THE PATTERN THEN ONCE AGAIN REVERTS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE POKING NORTH TOWARDS THE POLAR REGIONS OVER WESTERN
NOAM WITH TROUGHING DIGGING IN THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
HOW THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE THERE
IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW GIVEN
THE MODEL SPREAD/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. THE STORM OCCURRING IN THE
MIDST OF THIS PATTERN SHIFT MEANS THE MODELS MAY STRUGGLE TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT
TELECONNECTIONS (BUILDING +PNA...AO/NAO TRENDING FROM POS TO NEG)
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO BUT IN REVERSE ORDER
/I.E. START AS LIQUID AND TRANSITION TO WINTRY/ AS THE SYSTEM THAT
JUST IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK.

Why do they type in all caps? lol


All caps is a larger font, thus easier to see?
Quoting 57. NativeSun:

Actually JB agrees with these forecast, after this Nino is toast, the AMO and PDO turn cold, then we will see where the temps end up and who is right or wrong, sure would be something if he is right, wouldn't it. This should occur around 2030 or so according to him.


There's something to the PDO turning cold in 2030'ish but this will likely slow, not stop warming.
He's working off the bidecadal flip/flop pattern of the PDO which is a valid observation.
Quoting 57. NativeSun:

Actually JB agrees with these forecast, after this Nino is toast, the AMO and PDO turn cold, then we will see where the temps end up and who is right or wrong, sure would be something if he is right, wouldn't it. This should occur around 2030 or so according to him.


So JB agrees with the warming data and that humans are the primary cause? Sorry, I don't buy it.
Lengthy WPC long range discussion...Link
Quoting 54. sar2401:

No, it doesn't. How warm or cold the air is at 850 mb is a lot more important. I think it was George who ran into freezing rain coming back from Ohio a couple of days ago when the temperature was 20. Even the position of the freezing line isn't as important as when the precipitation arrives and departs. I don't know how many time the models have showed snow down here because the temperature was going to be cold enough to place us north of the freezing line. That was true, but the precipitation left or didn't arrive in time for the precipitation to take advantage of the cold temperatures. I have zero confidence in any model being able to make these fine distinctions eight days out.


Yes, the temperature at 850 mb is more important. I've watched it snow (didn't stick of course) with temperatures in the mid 40s at ground level before. They were also nice huge silver dollar sized flakes too.
Quoting 17. Seattleite:

Thankfully it appears that a wind storm will not be in my future. However, it seems someone in the Pacific Northwest will be impacted. I suppose it'll be clear what will happen when it begins tomorrow.

An excerpt from the 9AM Seattle NWS Discussion:

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW. THE 12Z GFS20 DEVELOPS THE LOW TO 977MB THEN WRAPS IT AROUND ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SLAMS IT INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z NAM12 AND 00Z ECMWF TAKE THE MAIN LOW CENTER INTO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND WHILE TAKING A MODERATE TRIPLE POINT FEATURE INLAND SOMEWHERE AROUND OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ALL OF THE MODELS TAKE WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OLD BENT-BACK OCCLUSION INTO NW OREGON THEN LIFT IT N ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL LIKELY GET BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS WINDY AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A 6-12 HOUR BURST OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES ABOVE 3500 FEET.
ALBRECHT

Very windy all day here in the SF Bay Area, with strong, tree-branch-wrecking gusts. Plenty of tropical-like alto cumulus moving quickly along in the strong winds aloft. Not a drop of rain yet, but a fearsome sharp frontal boundary appears on the satellite moving steadily toward us from the west. Given the mid-winter warmth we've had for over a week, I wouldn't be surprised if we get some thunder tonight. And given the increasing vorticity from the midlevel low plus the cold air aloft, I expect to hear about funnel clouds and such in the Central Valley in the next few days.
Quoting 57. NativeSun:

Actually JB agrees with these forecast, after this Nino is toast, the AMO and PDO turn cold, then we will see where the temps end up and who is right or wrong, sure would be something if he is right, wouldn't it. This should occur around 2030 or so according to him.

Given how warm the Earth has been in northern latitudes over the past decade, it would require a rather uninformed or myopic view to think we see cooling in 15 years. In fact, it'll be just the opposite. The rate of warming will increase. All science points to that, specifically increased methane levels and feedback effect from exposed Arctic ocean, but that's never stopped some of the deniers from making stuff up.
If you are in Florida, please take a moment to enjoy the amazing weather right now that will continue into the weekend.

      Here it comes, forecast up to.22 in
Quoting 74. FatPenguin:


Given how warm the Earth has been in northern latitudes over the past decade, it would require a rather uninformed or myopic view to think we see cooling in 15 years. In fact, it'll be just the opposite. The rate of warming will increase. All science points to that, specifically increased methane levels and feedback effect from exposed Arctic ocean, but that's never stopped some of the deniers from making stuff up.
C02 levels will definitely continue to rise. Theory is that it may be sufficient for a runaway warming event. I still have questions about the severity of the warming, and if changing ocean currents ( or something else, volcanic eruption etc ) will slow the process. Either way, we pump more c02 into the atmosphere than the Earth can absorb...Thats no good.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12
Pretty impressive agreement among the EC/GFS/CMC that winter returns in the SE US in the 6-10 day period-wonderful!

Quoting 76. PedleyCA:


      Here it comes, forecast up to.22 in



You're in SB county right?
Quoting 79. win1gamegiantsplease:



You're in SB county right?
   NW Riverside, Co.
Quoting 70. Bucsboltsfan:



So JB agrees with the warming data and that humans are the primary cause? Sorry, I don't buy it.
He doesn't state that humans are the primary cause, just that the Earth is warming, and believes very little is man made if your basing it only on CO2.
Turkey experiences one of hottest Februarys in its history
February 16, 2016, Tuesday/ 17:06:58/ TODAY'S ZAMAN | ISTANBUL
Turkey has been experiencing one of the hottest Februarys on record with the thermometer in Istanbul reaching 26 degrees Celsius on Monday night.
Many western and southwestern provinces including Bursa, Izmir and Istanbul experienced the highest temperatures so far this winter on Monday and Tuesday.
In Istanbul the highest temperatures were recorded in the Pendik and Sariyer districts at 24 and 25 degrees Celsius, respectively.
In the past the highest temperature that Istanbul has reached in the month of February was 23 degrees back in 2010.


Looks like this continued today with some monthly record readings for February in Turkey (boy, a little earlier I was posting videos with excessive amounts of snow in Turkey). I'm sure Maximiliano Herrera (see entry) could give us the details. Good night everybody!

  Just went across the street and got a few drops....

AER predicts another Arctic Outbreak for the Eastern U.S.....Link
.

Why do they type in all caps? lol


Left over from the days of bow-dots. ( Baudot)

ascii has only been around for fifty or so years, don't want to jump too soon on what may just be a passing fad.
Quoting 75. Jedkins01:

If you are in Florida, please take a moment to enjoy the amazing weather right now that will continue into the weekend.


Here in Orange Park it was 6F warmer than the 68f that was forecast.
87. JRRP
Quoting 172. ricderr:

here's a few model runs from feb 11th........



Quoting 57. NativeSun:

Actually JB agrees with these forecast, after this Nino is toast, the AMO and PDO turn cold, then we will see where the temps end up and who is right or wrong, sure would be something if he is right, wouldn't it. This should occur around 2030 or so according to him.


The AMO and PDO do not create or destroy energy. JB is a greenhouse effect denier. Nothing more.
Hope the rain is reaching the ground and is not just virga.

Quoting 83. PedleyCA:

  Just went across the street and got a few drops....




Not here yet.

Quoting 90. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hope the rain is reaching the ground and is not just virga.
(snip)

Got the street WET, but that is about it, hope you do better Joe....

Quoting 76. PedleyCA:


      Here it comes, forecast up to.22 in



Looks like it's going poof as it nears the San Diego Coast.....lol
Quoting 80. PedleyCA:

   NW Riverside, Co.



That's the skinny long county underneath right? I know SB is the giant one and Orange is the teeny one with LA and SD on the opposite ends. Never have been to California, would really like to change that at some point in the future. The nice temps, mountain views, low biting insect density, and buenisimo Mexican food all attractive. Speaking of attractive, those pesky Wilson boys said something about California girls..
Quoting 57. NativeSun:

Actually JB agrees with these forecast, after this Nino is toast, the AMO and PDO turn cold, then we will see where the temps end up and who is right or wrong, sure would be something if he is right, wouldn't it. This should occur around 2030 or so according to him.

JB weight trains so that he has the strength to keep moving the goalposts
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

NWS
THE PATTERN THEN ONCE AGAIN REVERTS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE POKING NORTH TOWARDS THE POLAR REGIONS OVER WESTERN
NOAM WITH TROUGHING DIGGING IN THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
HOW THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE THERE
IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW GIVEN
THE MODEL SPREAD/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. THE STORM OCCURRING IN THE
MIDST OF THIS PATTERN SHIFT MEANS THE MODELS MAY STRUGGLE TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT
TELECONNECTIONS (BUILDING +PNA...AO/NAO TRENDING FROM POS TO NEG)
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO BUT IN REVERSE ORDER
/I.E. START AS LIQUID AND TRANSITION TO WINTRY/ AS THE SYSTEM THAT
JUST IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK.

Why do they type in all caps? lol


My guess is that it a system from the old days.

When I worked for the in the intelligence community as a communications tech we handled all messages in all caps.

Part of it was we had a system of Morse code (I never transmitted any active traffic via Morse code, circa 1985) We never transmitted plain text, always encrypted. To get a message through via Morse code, the message had to be encrypted using a one time pad, then transmitted, written down by hand and then decrypted by hand. Asking someone to work with upper and lower case would be pointless.

When the teletype was built, it used a five level code plus stop bits. The HW 28 Teletype could pass 100 words per minute because they shortened the stop bits to 1.5. That code was developed by a man named Baudot. That is where the term Baud rate comes from. I might add that no one transmits in Baudot anymore. At least no one I am aware of.

This code allows for 2 to the 5 characters, or about 32 different characters. This is enough for 26 letters and a few special characters, a shift character, which is one of the special characters allows you to use the bits over again so you can have numbers and few symbols.

Additionally, the teletype had no error correction. The voltage level going over the wire, or created at the output of the radio, engaged and disengaged clutches to setup and throw the correct hammer to make the correct letter. Having a simplified character set made for easier proofing by the communication persons before they passed the message on.



I suspect that there are some legacy systems that keep this going, as well as tradition.

Cheers
Qazulight
Why haven't I been able to access the blog this past week I wonder?
Why haven't I been able to access the blog in the past week?
Quoting 75. Jedkins01:

If you are in Florida, please take a moment to enjoy the amazing weather right now that will continue into the weekend.



Discussions falling short of a big thing and rightly so given the time>>>>>>>period. Parent low in the gulf is never a good thing however, should it materialize.
Quoting 98. JrWeathermanFL:

Why haven't I been able to access the blog in the past week?


       It has had a few issues. But it should have been available if you really tried...
They type in all caps because it's a legacy system from the teletype era. There probably still are systems that depend on it. The Atlantic has an article about it http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016 /01/forecast-discussions-why-all-caps-shouting/425 568/
Quoting 99. ProgressivePulse:




Discussions falling short of a big thing and rightly so given the time>>>>>>>period. Parent low in the gulf is never a good thing however, should it materialize.


Yeah it's still far out, but as we head later into February, instability return ahead of systems continues to get stronger as a whole, so any energetic system with at least decent dynamics can become a notable severe threat. The days are quickly beginning to get longer and, and the sun angle higher.

The NWS in Ruskin is already mentioning the severe possibility. Right now the gulf waters have been very cold off the central Florida coast points north which has limited severe in these areas. This warmer pattern should moderate shelf water temps some, as they are in the 50's right now.
At last, the rains have returned to the SF Bay Area. Still windy and a nice downpour. Come on down!
Quoting 69. georgevandenberghe:



There's something to the PDO turning cold in 2030'ish but this will likely slow, not stop warming.
He's working off the bidecadal flip/flop pattern of the PDO which is a valid observation.



Ocean circulation patterns do not remove energy from the system. They move it around.

I'm not sure why this is such a difficult concept for deniers to understand. The sun hits the Earth with a certain amount of energy. The Earth radiates a certain amount of energy. The ONLY thing that changes long term global temperatures is the delta between incoming and outgoing radiation.

It's simple. If the Earth isn't radiating it, it's staying here. It doesn't matter if it's sitting in the atmosphere or buried under a mile of ocean. JB and others of his ilk believe energy just magically "goes away". It doesn't. It remains in the system until it is removed from the system. The only way for energy to be removed from the Earth's system is to radiate it off into space. Greenhouse gases reduce the Earth's capability to do this. It doesn't matter if it's 10 watts or a fraction of a watt. If it ain't leaving, it's staying here. If it's staying here, then sooner or later it ends up impacting the climate system.

There is no known mechanism in the universe where heat just magically vanishes. Deniers can't seem to grasp this most basic concept. Joe "I use my buttocks to think" Bastardi, who has a met degree, should know this concept quite well. And yet he continues to spew hist moronic denier BS at every opportunity.

Perhaps JB should look into whether or not those protein supplements he's downing are affecting neurological functions.
Quoting 103. Jedkins01:



Yeah it's still far out, but as we head later into February, instability return ahead of systems continues to get stronger as a whole, so any energetic system with at least decent dynamics can become a notable severe threat. The days are quickly beginning to get longer and, and the sun angle higher.

The NWS in Ruskin is already mentioning the severe possibility. Right now the gulf waters have been very cold off the central Florida coast points north which has limited severe in these areas. This warmer pattern should moderate shelf water temps some, as they are in the 50's right now.


NWS MIA mentioned a slight risk Tuesday, Questionable Wednesday, 48 Thursday morning.

Late Feb, Early March are historic calling cards, for stronger El Nino's
Pedley and Jr.Weather ..... I have had the same problem ..... No Dr.Masters Blog –– showed [...]  for about a week.It started be saying something to the effect that they were shutting it down for maintenance for a few hours, with the blog showing but not going anywhere, then the blog disappeared all together.about a day later.Since then, up until 7:00pm MST this evening, the site has shown the cyclones in their respective area sections, but NOT on the Global Map .... and NO Dr. Master's Blog.Very happy to see it back.
Quoting 97. JrWeathermanFL:

Why haven't I been able to access the blog this past week I wonder?


It's been here.
Mannnnnn....I just bought a Ambient WS 2095 to replace my old weather station. Gonna be a busy week. First, this will be the first time to connect a station to the internet, I bought the weatherbridge WiFi with it, have no clue how to do it as my new laptop has no cd drive to install the software which the station came with a CD, gonna be talking to someone on the phone walking me step by step of what to do, gotta register the station on WU, gotta get a pole mount since this station is all in one and is not separated by wires to arrange in far distances, what else am my missing?

I JUST WANT IT TO WORK SO I CAN LOOK AT MY WEATHER!!
Why the hell have they not come up with Smart Weather Stations, like the smart phone, smart TV, I mean the console should have the built in Wifi in it and just connect to internet just like your phone does and TVs now. Get your updates automatically on the console like the smartphone, the TV, just works and it all goes to weather sites automatically.
Quoting 107. GreatSlaveLake:

Pedley and Jr.Weather ..... I have had the same problem ..... No Dr.Masters Blog %u2013%u2013 showed [...]  for about a week.It started be saying something to the effect that they were shutting it down for maintenance for a few hours, with the blog showing but not going anywhere, then the blog disappeared all together.about a day later.Since then, up until 7:00pm MST this evening, the site has shown the cyclones in their respective area sections, but NOT on the Global Map .... and NO Dr. Master's Blog.Very happy to see it back.
        I have a lot of my blogs and weather site in bookmarks and don't use the links in the site unless they change something to    break my links. Everything worked this week but I did get the messages you mentioned and the site is acting up a bit and the quote feature is acting different.
Quoting 109. RitaEvac:

Mannnnnn....I just bought a Ambient WS 2095 to replace my old weather station. Gonna be a busy week. First, this will be the first time to connect a station to the internet, I bought the weatherbridge WiFi with it, have no clue how to do it as my new laptop has no cd drive to install the software which the station came with a CD, gonna be talking to someone on the phone walking me step by step of what to do, gotta register the station on WU, gotta get a pole mount since this station is all in one and is not separated by wires to arrange in far distances, what else am my missing?

I JUST WANT IT TO WORK SO I CAN LOOK AT MY WEATHER!!
       Copy the CD to a USB drive so you can use it on your laptop. You do have another PC available you can do that on?
Quoting 100. hydrus:




Is that Uriah Heep?


  So Sad, Street WET. Official Amount Diddly Squat....
Had a radar band come over but no rain.....just virga! Still bone dry. Tail end of front appears to be narrowing(weakening) as it heads in Soo Soo Cal.....please hold together!

Quoting 107. GreatSlaveLake:

Pedley and Jr.Weather ..... I have had the same problem ..... No Dr.Masters Blog –– showed [...]  for about a week.It started be saying something to the effect that they were shutting it down for maintenance for a few hours, with the blog showing but not going anywhere, then the blog disappeared all together.about a day later.Since then, up until 7:00pm MST this evening, the site has shown the cyclones in their respective area sections, but NOT on the Global Map .... and NO Dr. Master's Blog.Very happy to see it back.


Do you live on Great Slave Lake if you do I envy you. I have on the bucket list to fish your lake and Great Bear. I can not wait until I get the chance.
Quoting 84. hydrus:

AER predicts another Arctic Outbreak for the Eastern U.S.....Link

Sigh... I live in Eastern NY, and was so hoping for an early spring (which your link seems to indicate won't be in the cards, at least until late March). As is, we do seem to be having warmer winters, and sometimes far less snowy winters, than in our past here. That said, it more and more seems as if our March's and early springs are coming in like a lion and going out like a lion, and, with a few exceptions, that our true spring is showing up later and later.

And that's difficult to deal with, mentally and emotionally, when one is just looking for winter to end, and a chance to store away the winter jackets for six months or so.

Jo
Gosh, if this El Niño keeps going strong we could be in hot water!
Quoting 112. PedleyCA:

       Copy the CD to a USB drive so you can use it on your laptop. You do have another PC available you can do that on?

Even better, just go to the Ambient website and download the latest software. Get's around the CD-ROM problem and you get the latest version.
Quoting 107. GreatSlaveLake:

Pedley and Jr.Weather ..... I have had the same problem ..... No Dr.Masters Blog –– showed [...]  for about a week.It started be saying something to the effect that they were shutting it down for maintenance for a few hours, with the blog showing but not going anywhere, then the blog disappeared all together.about a day later.Since then, up until 7:00pm MST this evening, the site has shown the cyclones in their respective area sections, but NOT on the Global Map .... and NO Dr. Master's Blog.Very happy to see it back.
Now that you've been able to get here, just make a bookmark from Dr. Master's main blog page. They are unlikely to change that and it's much easier to use a bookmark than depend of the somewhat flakey links here.
Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:

Gosh, if this El Niño keeps going strong we could be in hot water!
Bada boom!
Nymor .... the fishing up here is amazing .... not just the big lake (Great Slave Lake) but there a literally thousands of lakes in the area ..... google Yellowknife and NWT Tourist Information, and "Up Here" magazine for more.And the Aurora Borealis is nightly entertainment throughout the winter (too light in the summer to see the aurora, but you can fish 24/7 if you wish).Come on up !!
Thanks SAR and Pedley, I'll do the 'bookmark' thing from now on .... that blogless episode was very strange.
Quoting 115. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Had a radar band come over but no rain.....just virga! Still bone dry. Tail end of front appears to be narrowing(weakening) as it heads in Soo Soo Cal.....please hold together!


         Hey Joe, Raining again here. You get any action Yet....
The Tornado that hit Century Fl, Monday night north of Pensacola , Fl. was a EF-3 with 152 . That is very rare for this part of the country. We also had some wind down burst that did a lot of damage in North Pensacola, Fl. 20,000 where with out power. It's early for this kind of weather.
I also saw a post saying Water temps are in the 50's in the Gulf off the west coast of Florida in the water off the Florida N/W coast they are in the mid 60's 65 0r so . Want take mush to push them up. I think we could see an early Hurricane season!
Quoting 96. Qazulight:



My guess is that it a system from the old days.

When I worked for the in the intelligence community as a communications tech we handled all messages in all caps.

Part of it was we had a system of Morse code (I never transmitted any active traffic via Morse code, circa 1985) We never transmitted plain text, always encrypted. To get a message through via Morse code, the message had to be encrypted using a one time pad, then transmitted, written down by hand and then decrypted by hand. Asking someone to work with upper and lower case would be pointless.

When the teletype was built, it used a five level code plus stop bits. The HW 28 Teletype could pass 100 words per minute because they shortened the stop bits to 1.5. That code was developed by a man named Baudot. That is where the term Baud rate comes from. I might add that no one transmits in Baudot anymore. At least no one I am aware of.

This code allows for 2 to the 5 characters, or about 32 different characters. This is enough for 26 letters and a few special characters, a shift character, which is one of the special characters allows you to use the bits over again so you can have numbers and few symbols.

Additionally, the teletype had no error correction. The voltage level going over the wire, or created at the output of the radio, engaged and disengaged clutches to setup and throw the correct hammer to make the correct letter. Having a simplified character set made for easier proofing by the communication persons before they passed the message on.



I suspect that there are some legacy systems that keep this going, as well as tradition.

Cheers
Qazulight


Got me thinking, the INMARSAT system I worked on was all 5/7, and their standards B and C are still in service, at least for now. It's been a while, I don't know what's current anymore.
Quoting 109. RitaEvac:

Mannnnnn....I just bought a Ambient WS 2095 to replace my old weather station. Gonna be a busy week. First, this will be the first time to connect a station to the internet, I bought the weatherbridge WiFi with it, have no clue how to do it as my new laptop has no cd drive to install the software which the station came with a CD, gonna be talking to someone on the phone walking me step by step of what to do, gotta register the station on WU, gotta get a pole mount since this station is all in one and is not separated by wires to arrange in far distances, what else am my missing?

I JUST WANT IT TO WORK SO I CAN LOOK AT MY WEATHER!!
As I wrote earlier, download the software from the Ambient website and install it from your hard drive. The two biggest problems with the 2095 are the wireless signal strength and the accuracy of the thermometer. I had one a couple of years ago. The 433MHz signal is subject to a lot of interference, especially if you live in a big metropolitan area that's RF dense. Before you install it, put the console where you're going to keep it and then try a couple of different locations to install the sensors, assuming you have that option. Pick the one that shows five bars (or the highest reading you can get) before you put it up on the pole. I don't know where you're going to mount it, but try to make sure you have a good line of sight from the sensors to the console before you finalize the location.

The biggest issue I had with it was the inadequate shielding on the temperature sensor. The shield that comes with the station will not give accurate readings if the sensor is in direct sunlight, always reading 5-10 degrees too high. Ambient does have a replacement shield that does a better job at what seemed like an outrageous $40 to me. I finally broke down and got one, and it did improve the performance, but temperatures on a hot day were still too high by 2-3 degrees compared to a shaded known accurate thermometer. I'd still recommend getting one and installing it before you put up the sensors.

I don't think you'll have many problems getting it to work with your computer. Just follow the steps in the manual and it should work. I had mine working fine in 10 minutes with Vista, never the best OS with new hardware. I think Ambient has some kind of marketing agreement with WU. It's closely tied in with the PWS system here, and that should be an easy process as well. Good luck.
Quoting 127. PedleyCA:





NWS site says we got about 0.15, and my plastic rain gauge says a little over 1/8 of an inch. Ventura County.
Quoting 126. gulfbreeze:

The Tornado that hit Century Fl, Monday night north of Pensacola , Fl. was a EF-3 with 152 . That is very rare for this part of the country. We also had some wind down burst that did a lot of damage in North Pensacola, Fl. 20,000 where with out power. It's early for this kind of weather.
I also saw a post saying Water temps are in the 50's in the Gulf off the west coast of Florida in the water off the Florida N/W coast they are in the mid 60's 65 0r so . Want take mush to push them up. I think we could see an early Hurricane season!
That same group of cells also spawned several tornadoes further north in Alabama. I believe they'll find the one near Red Level came from this group too. The cells maintained severe levels to just about 40 miles SE of Montgomery before dissipating. I don't think an EF-3 in that section of the Panhandle is quite as rare as further south in Florida, but they aren't common either. There have been 3 EF-3's in Escambia County alone and 9 EF-2's since 1950. The tornadoes in the Panhandle and Alabama had discontinuous paths, but they were about as close to long track tornadoes as we usually see here in winter. Very active day for us only having a slight risk of severe storms.
Quoting 128. chasSoCal:



Got me thinking, the INMARSAT system I worked on was all 5/7, and their standards B and C are still in service, at least for now. It's been a while, I don't know what's current anymore.
From what I've read, the biggest problem is the WMO. They set the global standards for digital weather reporting. There are apparently a few countries left that don't have national systems capable of reading mixed case font, only all caps and the four or five punctuation and special characters. Rather than helping those countries to join the 21st century, the rest of us have to suffer with difficult to read discussions. I do notice a couple of offices have bolted and issue text in mixed case. That's the stated goal of the NWS, and they've been studying this for five years. Maybe they'll get it figured out in another five...or ten years.
Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:

Gosh, if this El Niño keeps going strong we could be in hot water!
Are we playing chess here now?
Quoting 131. sar2401:

That same group of cells also spawned several tornadoes further north in Alabama. I believe they'll find the one near Red Level came from this group too. The cells maintained severe levels to just about 40 miles SE of Montgomery before dissipating. I don't think an EF-3 in that section of the Panhandle is quite as rare as further south in Florida, but they aren't common either. There have been 3 EF-3's in Escambia County alone and 9 EF-2's since 1950. The tornadoes in the Panhandle and Alabama had discontinuous paths, but they were about as close to long track tornadoes as we usually see here in winter. Very active day for us only having a slight risk of severe storms.


Oddly enough, there have actually been more EF3 or stronger tornadoes in Central Florida, and the only EF4 tornadoes in FL history have also occurred in Central Florida. I'm not quite sure why, but it's interesting. The Tallahassee area for example, has seen far less tornadoes historically than Tampa, Orlando, and Miami.
Quoting 127. PedleyCA:





Slowing down, almost to a stall in it's southward movement and falling apart........Not a drop here!
I like rain, really I do. But when we are about to cross the wettest winter in Seattle history mark even the hardiest among us are beginning to wonder when either 1) it will stop or 2) our normal mist will return.

So tonight, we have received .49 inches of rain in the last two hours. That is rather remarkable for Seattle. Seriously, in all of last year we only had 13 days (with 24 hours) with 1 inch of rain or more. We average only 3.53 inches of rain for the entire month of February. Tonight's rain (it's still raining btw) should push us over the 4 inch mark so far for February, and over 22.92 inches for the Dec/Jan/Feb period. This would make it Seattle's wettest winter on record. This isn't official or anything yet, just me plugging away with math based on figures from yesterday and today's observations. I fully expect a climate section to an upcoming Seattle NWS Discussion...

All I know is I was really glad I wore my poncho and rain boots when we walked to dinner around 7:15. It was raining hard the whole way back around 8:45. While I remained perfectly dry, others in our party were not so lucky.

Raining a bit more now and starting to get some numbers now...
Quoting 131. sar2401:

That same group of cells also spawned several tornadoes further north in Alabama. I believe they'll find the one near Red Level came from this group too. The cells maintained severe levels to just about 40 miles SE of Montgomery before dissipating. I don't think an EF-3 in that section of the Panhandle is quite as rare as further south in Florida, but they aren't common either. There have been 3 EF-3's in Escambia County alone and 9 EF-2's since 1950. The tornadoes in the Panhandle and Alabama had discontinuous paths, but they were about as close to long track tornadoes as we usually see here in winter. Very active day for us only having a slight risk of severe storms.
So true do you think we see will any more Tornadoes before the end of Spring!
Quoting 134. Jedkins01:



Oddly enough, there have actually been more EF3 or stronger tornadoes in Central Florida, and the only EF4 tornadoes in FL history have also occurred in Central Florida. I'm not quite sure why, but it's interesting. The Tallahassee area for example, has seen far less tornadoes historically than Tampa, Orlando, and Miami.
I think it's due to the fact you have warm air coming from the Gulf & Atlantic!
BUOY 42012 WATER TEMP 64.9 F 12 MILES OFF ORANGE BEACH, FL.
Quoting 140. gulfbreeze:

BUOY 42012 WATER TEMP 64.9 F 12 MILES OFF ORANGE BEACH, FL.
SHOULD BE ORANGE BEACH ,FL.
Quoting 141. gulfbreeze:

SHOULD BE ORANGE BEACH ,FL.
ONE MORE TIME SHOUD BE ORANGE BEACH, AL,
144. OCF
A good half inch in Long Beach, which is more (and earlier) than the forecast had led me to expect.
KRAL is showing .16, Indian Hills PWS is .23 which is what the .WU forecast predicted
Quoting 125. PedleyCA:

         Hey Joe, Raining again here. You get any action Yet....



Nary a drop brother! Can't even smell a drop! Glad you are getting yourself some!

Quoting 146. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Nary a drop brother! Can't even smell a drop! Glad you are getting yourself some!

Was it my turn to hog it all? Looks like the rest of it is headed your way. Hang on its coming....
What game is that?
Hope next weeks weather is tame compared to what we have been getting!
Storm/tornado alerts in the the middle on the night are getting old.


Quoting 143. BaltimoreBrian:


Half an inch at KVNY, with a possibility that some more showers move through overnight. Not bad, but the 10-day shows the pattern quickly going back to the 2014-15 style winter pattern.
Quoting 145. PedleyCA:

KRAL is showing .16, Indian Hills PWS is .23 which is what the .WU forecast predicted



Nada yet! Winds picking up a tad.......front or what's left of it is getting close.......hopeful for a wet street and that the vegetation gets fed a bit anyway.
Quoting 147. PedleyCA:



Was it my turn to hog it all? Looks like the rest of it is headed your way. Hang on its coming....



So is Christmas! Time for nexflix and "Better Call Saul"......lol
I find it interesting and questionable that nearly every month over the last year plus has broken the all time warmest record month since 1880. I also find it hard to believe and wonder what biases might be involved here. I bet in 1880 to 1920, for example, there were far fewer weather monitoring stations in the world.
I feel this information is misleading about records since 136 years is but a mere fraction of how long the earth has been habitable even for humans. Lets see 100,000 years or more since human like ancestors began roaming the earth: 136/100,000 = .136 percent of our time here, so less than 1%. Technology has made everything more accurate and gives more people the opportunity to record weather data in more places than ever before. Does that really make everything more and greater? I would be interested to learn how this data is/ was collected by NASA and NOAA and from which locations. I know Global Warming is responsible, etc., etc., ad nauseum but come on, the earth is much older than this measly 135 year span of "accurately recording weather data"!!
Can see the moon thru the clouds........Sweet wife made me 2 meatloaf sandwiches :) to chow down on during Better Call Saul........hope the front holds together and the column moistens up enough to allow the drops to hit my little patch of Earth I call home!
WE HAVE RAINDROPS AND THE STREET IS WET!
Quoting 94. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's the skinny long county underneath right? I know SB is the giant one and Orange is the teeny one with LA and SD on the opposite ends. Never have been to California, would really like to change that at some point in the future. The nice temps, mountain views, low biting insect density, and buenisimo Mexican food all attractive. Speaking of attractive, those pesky Wilson boys said something about California girls..



some claim the most beautiful women in the world are in orange county ca.
Quoting 152. SwadeotheRockies:

I find it interesting and questionable that nearly every month over the last year plus has broken the all time warmest record month since 1880. I also find it hard to believe and wonder what biases might be involved here. I bet in 1880 to 1920, for example, there were far fewer weather monitoring stations in the world.
I feel this information is misleading about records since 136 years is but a mere fraction of how long the earth has been habitable even for humans. Lets see 100,000 years or more since human like ancestors began roaming the earth: 136/100,000 = .136 percent of our time here, so less than 1%. Technology has made everything more accurate and gives more people the opportunity to record weather data in more places than ever before. Does that really make everything more and greater? I would be interested to learn how this data is/ was collected by NASA and NOAA and from which locations. I know Global Warming is responsible, etc., etc., ad nauseum but come on, the earth is much older than this measly 135 year span of "accurately recording weather data"!!
The are other reasons why data shows that the warming will continue, regardless of the recorded temps of past...The thermometers were made well enough back then to regard them as accurate, and actually were many weather station during those time periods. There may be a few exceptions.
158. elioe
This difference in analyses between NASA and NOAA is puzzling. Comparing these two images:



First of all, they use different base periods, so it's difficult to compare these images. But it can be seen, that even though the anomaly patterns are similar, they are not identical. And NOAA doesn't estimate any temperatures from the vicinity of the poles in the images, perhaps omitting 40 million sq.km or so of surface. If they don't include these areas when they calculate the average surface temperature of this planet, that would likely explain why they end up with 0.09 C lower anomaly than NASA.

But that's not all. NOAA estimates -4 - -5C anomalies in Eastern Finland, while NASA estimates -2 - -4C. However, Finnish meteorological institute, using the same base period as NOAA, has observed -5 - -7C anomalies throughout the region. Would be interesting to see the data that NOAA uses. NASA possibly combines surface observations with satellite infrared brightness observations? Otherwise they wouldn't be able to make any estimate of the polar temperatures...
Quoting 152. SwadeotheRockies:

I find it interesting and questionable that nearly every month over the last year plus has broken the all time warmest record month since 1880. I also find it hard to believe and wonder what biases might be involved here. I bet in 1880 to 1920, for example, there were far fewer weather monitoring stations in the world.
I feel this information is misleading about records since 136 years is but a mere fraction of how long the earth has been habitable even for humans. Lets see 100,000 years or more since human like ancestors began roaming the earth: 136/100,000 = .136 percent of our time here, so less than 1%. Technology has made everything more accurate and gives more people the opportunity to record weather data in more places than ever before. Does that really make everything more and greater? I would be interested to learn how this data is/ was collected by NASA and NOAA and from which locations. I know Global Warming is responsible, etc., etc., ad nauseum but come on, the earth is much older than this measly 135 year span of "accurately recording weather data"!!
Quoting 158. elioe:

This difference in analyses between NASA and NOAA is puzzling. Comparing these two images

First of all, they use different base periods, so it's difficult to compare these images. But it can be seen, that even though the anomaly patterns are similar, they are not identical. And NOAA doesn't estimate any temperatures from the vicinity of the poles in the images, perhaps omitting 40 million sq.km or so of surface. If they don't include these areas when they calculate the average surface temperature of this planet, that would likely explain why they end up with 0.09 C lower anomaly than NASA.

But that's not all. NOAA estimates -4 - -5C anomalies in Eastern Finland, while NASA estimates -2 - -4C. However, Finnish meteorological institute, using the same base period as NOAA, has observed -5 - -7C anomalies throughout the region. Would be interesting to see the data that NOAA uses. NASA possibly combines surface observations with satellite infrared brightness observations? Otherwise they wouldn't be able to make any estimate of the polar temperatures...


I find both these statements interesting and questionable and puzzling. Both commenters would be served well to read the methodology and associated literature with the data which are available onine along with the data. NOAA and NASA are very transparent in this regard. It seems like more of a rehash of the same old social construction critiques from those who haven't even bothered to read the literature before voicing empty criticisms in an effort to create doubt.
Quoting 152. SwadeotheRockies:

I find it interesting and questionable that nearly every month over the last year plus has broken the all time warmest record month since 1880. I also find it hard to believe and wonder what biases might be involved here. I bet in 1880 to 1920, for example, there were far fewer weather monitoring stations in the world.
I feel this information is misleading about records since 136 years is but a mere fraction of how long the earth has been habitable even for humans. Lets see 100,000 years or more since human like ancestors began roaming the earth: 136/100,000 = .136 percent of our time here, so less than 1%. Technology has made everything more accurate and gives more people the opportunity to record weather data in more places than ever before. Does that really make everything more and greater? I would be interested to learn how this data is/ was collected by NASA and NOAA and from which locations. I know Global Warming is responsible, etc., etc., ad nauseum but come on, the earth is much older than this measly 135 year span of "accurately recording weather data"!!

But the earth is also much older than 22,000 years: Link
161. MahFL
Quoting 104. BayFog:

At last, the rains have returned to the SF Bay Area. Still windy and a nice downpour. Come on down!


Good to hear BayFog.
base much of our theories on computer analysis. sure the computers right?
Quoting 158. elioe:

This difference in analyses between NASA and NOAA is puzzling. Comparing these two images:



First of all, they use different base periods, so it's difficult to compare these images. But it can be seen, that even though the anomaly patterns are similar, they are not identical. And NOAA doesn't estimate any temperatures from the vicinity of the poles in the images, perhaps omitting 40 million sq.km or so of surface. If they don't include these areas when they calculate the average surface temperature of this planet, that would likely explain why they end up with 0.09 C lower anomaly than NASA.

But that's not all. NOAA estimates -4 - -5C anomalies in Eastern Finland, while NASA estimates -2 - -4C. However, Finnish meteorological institute, using the same base period as NOAA, has observed -5 - -7C anomalies throughout the region. Would be interesting to see the data that NOAA uses. NASA possibly combines surface observations with satellite infrared brightness observations? Otherwise they wouldn't be able to make any estimate of the polar temperatures...
You yourself answered most of your questions when you stated that the images you've shown utilize two different base periods. In fact, those base periods don't even overlap; one base is 1951-1980, and the other is 1981-2010. So in a warming world, one would and should expect to see greater anomalies when current temperatures are plotted against the older base--which is precisely what these two images show.

So far as the methodologies employed by NASA/NOAA, those are very public and available for all to analyze, criticize, discuss, and replicate.
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

NWS
THE PATTERN THEN ONCE AGAIN REVERTS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE POKING NORTH TOWARDS THE POLAR REGIONS OVER WESTERN
NOAM WITH TROUGHING DIGGING IN THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
HOW THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE THERE
IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW GIVEN
THE MODEL SPREAD/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. THE STORM OCCURRING IN THE
MIDST OF THIS PATTERN SHIFT MEANS THE MODELS MAY STRUGGLE TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT
TELECONNECTIONS (BUILDING +PNA...AO/NAO TRENDING FROM POS TO NEG)
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO BUT IN REVERSE ORDER
/I.E. START AS LIQUID AND TRANSITION TO WINTRY/ AS THE SYSTEM THAT
JUST IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK.

Why do they type in all caps? lol
Paste the all-caps text into an online case changer (ConvertCase.net is a good one). Then press the button for the change you'd like to see--sentence case, lowercase, uppercase, capitalized case, or (ugh) alternating case.

Et voila!

The pattern then once again reverts to a
Building ridge poking north towards the polar regions over western
Noam with troughing digging in the east. Cold air will gradually
Filter south. At the same time...Several shortwaves slide down the
Eastern side of the ridge and dive into the gulf of mexico early
Next week. Depending on how much cold air moves into the region and
How these systems interact will determine the precipitation type and
Intensity for the middle part of next week. At this juncture there
Is growing confidence for low pressure to impact the area...But
Confidence in the precipitation type and impacts are quite low given
The model spread/changeable pattern. The storm occurring in the
Midst of this pattern shift means the models may struggle to have a
Good handle on this system until it is in the short term...But
Teleconnections (building +pna...Ao/nao trending from pos to neg)
Suggest the potential for a system similar to but in reverse order
/i.E. Start as liquid and transition to wintry/ as the system that
Just impacted the area earlier this week.


The convection around the center is blossoming, is this thing already annular?
Quoting 136. Seattleite:

I like rain, really I do. But when we are about to cross the wettest winter in Seattle history mark even the hardiest among us are beginning to wonder when either 1) it will stop or 2) our normal mist will return.

So tonight, we have received .49 inches of rain in the last two hours. That is rather remarkable for Seattle. Seriously, in all of last year we only had 13 days (with 24 hours) with 1 inch of rain or more. We average only 3.53 inches of rain for the entire month of February. Tonight's rain (it's still raining btw) should push us over the 4 inch mark so far for February, and over 22.92 inches for the Dec/Jan/Feb period. This would make it Seattle's wettest winter on record. This isn't official or anything yet, just me plugging away with math based on figures from yesterday and today's observations. I fully expect a climate section to an upcoming Seattle NWS Discussion...

All I know is I was really glad I wore my poncho and rain boots when we walked to dinner around 7:15. It was raining hard the whole way back around 8:45. While I remained perfectly dry, others in our party were not so lucky.


I'm surprised the February average is only 3.53 inches, that's about average for much of Florida in February, and this is the dry season. In most of Florida, rainy season months average 7-10 inches per month for about 4 months or so. Everyone thinks of Seattle as the rainy city of the U.S., but there are other cities in the U.S. like Miami New Orleans, Orlando, New York, that average quite a bit more rainfall. Seattle is somewhat protected from getting the heaviest rains that occur in the Northwest by terrain changes.
169. elioe
Quoting 163. Neapolitan:

You yourself answered most of your questions when you stated that the images you've shown utilize two different base periods. In fact, those base periods don't even overlap; one base is 1951-1980, and the other is 1981-2010. So in a warming world, one would and should expect to see greater anomalies when current temperatures are plotted against the older base--which is precisely what these two images show.

So far as the methodologies employed by NASA/NOAA, those are very public and available for all to analyze, criticize, discuss, and replicate.


For most parts, I did answer my own questions indeed. But for some localities, the difference between those base periods should be extreme to make the results given by NASA and NOAA consistent with each other. Temperatures should have warmed* 3 - 4 C south of White Sea and 1 - 2 C in some parts of North Korea, for example. For Eastern Finland there should have been warming* of 0 - 3 C using those results, but 1 - 6 C to make NASA results and FMI observations consistent. There was not: 1981-2010 was warmer by about 0.3 C than 1951-1980. (* said originally "cooling", corrected, sorry)

There is indeed lots of public documentation made available by both NOAA and NASA, but at least I can't find anything to explain these conflicting things. Or anything from NOAA to clarify my point about the "no data" areas in those images. A NASA document (end of chapter 3.3) however makes one horrifying revelation: if there is an ice-covered sea area more than 1200 km away from nearest weather station, they set the temperature anomaly of that area to zero by default. Which means: 1) they don't actually even estimate the global temperature anomaly and most likely 2) they underestimate the amount of global warming. All NOAA images I find have this widespread "no data" situation in polar regions, and if also they do this "zero by default" thing, they underestimate global warming even more.

And: when it comes to base periods, NOAA calculates their published anomalies compared to 20th century, while NASA uses 1951-1980. That could account for the 0,09C difference, but yet, for consistency, that difference should remain the same for every month (which it doesn't do). I guess, to fully understand this problem, I would have to find the program they use to stitch pointlike station observations and incomplete satellite data to make a continuous temperature anomaly field. And I would have to be a programmer to be able to understand anything from that program :)
Today's update on this WWB has it increasing in amplitude. Not good for la-Nina prospect or even neutral for that matter as this "could" help El-Nino continue thru Summer as a new OKW forms.

Good Morning; here is the usual Conus forecast for today, the jet, and overall look.


And the highs for today; pretty toasty across the mid-section of the country:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

And finally the loop for the SW-Cali and todays drought monitor; always hoping for more rain or snow pack for California: they are still not getting enough.

Pacific Southwest sector loop - click image for the local radar loop
Current U.S. Drought Monitor


Forecast Discussion



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180912
SPC AC 180912

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH
DAY 8 AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN TANDEM WITH
THE INTENSIFYING UPPER SYSTEM...AND A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 02/18/2016


Quoting 157. hydrus:

The are other reasons why data shows that the warming will continue, regardless of the recorded temps of past...The thermometers were made well enough back then to regard them as accurate, and actually were many weather station during those time periods. There may be a few exceptions.
You can't compare the way the temps were measured back then to the way they are measured today, or the accuracy of those thermometers, compared to todays satellite measuring devices. as far as that goes, you can only go back to the satellite temp measuring time to run your data base for the world temps. We need apples to apples, not apples to oranges.
Quoting 165. NoobDave:



The convection around the center is blossoming, is this thing already annular?

It's definitely not annular, at least not yet.


It's certainly starting to look like Winston is potentially becoming more of a threat to FIJI and it's surrounding Islands. Hopefully tracking back over the same waters he has already crossed over will keep him in check. Both the GFS and HWRF have been "rather" consistent in taking Wilson right into FIJI itself.

Here is the 06Z HWRF @ 54 hours with a 924 mb 120 knot storm....:/



Here is the 06Z GFS which is the worst case scenario with a 965 mb 90 knot storm as it takes Winston through FIJI and then hooks it back ESE into Kadavu Island even stronger....








Keep in mind that both these models are a north bias of the forecasted track of Winston which JTWC takes it south of FIJI and just east of Kadavu Island as a weakening Cyclone, albeit one going from a 85 knot storm to 65 knot storm in its last 36 hours. But we do know JTWC has a notorious history of being conservative on their forecasts, but I may tend to agree with them on this case since Winston will likely be traveling back over waters that have up welled, thus limiting intensification. The track has been shifting further west with time though. Time to prepare in FIJI is now.





Quoting 175. NativeSun:

You can't compare the way the temps were measured back then to the way they are measured today, or the accuracy of those thermometers, compared to todays satellite measuring devices. as far as that goes, you can only go back to the satellite temp measuring time to run your data base for the world temps. We need apples to apples, not apples to oranges.


I wish you would stop repeating lies and falsehoods about the data. The satellite data is more problematic than the thermometer temperature record. Much more uncertainty, bad agreement between data sets, bad agreement with radiosonde observations. The thermometer record, on the other hand, can be corrected for previous reporting difficulties. Those corrections, while discussed in the methodology AND peer reviewed AND accepted as valid AND available for you to read, at your convenience online, have been shown to be valid by comparison with the pristine USCRN data.

Notwithstanding the issue of satt based or land based temp readings, the most glaring statistics from Nasa, regardless of El Nino this season, is that the Arctic is warming drastically since 1980 anyway you cut it..........(and the waters south of Greenland, which is in the warming zone, keep showing the cold pool which is most likely related to glacial ice sheet melt). Also interesting to see on this chart that that there are several other cold water pool zones adjacent to the warming Arctic further to the East of Greenland.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/


Fig 1: Global map
To give an idea on exactly how much the satellite measurements are diverging from the radiosondes, here are a few graphs. H/t Tamino.




Quoting 176. ILwthrfan:

It's definitely not annular, at least not yet.


It's certainly starting to look like Winston is potentially becoming more of a threat to FIJI and it's surrounding Islands. Hopefully tracking back over the same waters he has already crossed over will keep him in check. Both the GFS and HWRF have been "rather" consistent in taking Wilson right into FIJI itself.




Well Winston might be travelling over the waters that have cooled down significantly for now, but there is plenty of ocean heat content left, particularly the waters around Fiji are juicy, the real track of Winston will be crucial, both HWRF and GFS are predicting doom while JTWC is rather optimistic. The cyclone is also pretty small, so it can get real strong real fast. The storm also appears to have some annular characteristics which I thought it may have gotten because it tracked over those cooler waters - Big eye, centralized convection and doesn t appear to have much banding left.








181. MahFL
In Truckee CA :

"Light Thunderstorm Snow"

Very nice. They had +SN earlier and reports that 12 inches have fallen so far.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
128 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHOENIX AZ AND YUMA AZ...
...WARMEST TEMPERATURE SO EARLY IN THE YEAR AT PHOENIX AZ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHOENIX AZ
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 2014.

THIS IS THE EARLIEST IN THE CALENDAR YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS EVER
BEEN RECORDED AT PHOENIX AZ.
Quoting 177. Naga5000:



I wish you would stop repeating lies and falsehoods about the data. The satellite data is more problematic than the thermometer temperature record. Much more uncertainty, bad agreement between data sets, bad agreement with radiosonde observations. The thermometer record, on the other hand, can be corrected for previous reporting difficulties. Those corrections, while discussed in the methodology AND peer reviewed AND accepted as valid AND available for you to read, at your convenience online, have been shown to be valid by comparison with the pristine USCRN data.


The problem, Naga, is that posters like the one you quoted have created a worldview and will bend science to conform to that worldview, rather than forming an opinion founded in fact and adjusting as new information comes to light. This is unfortunately commonplace.
#180 NoobDave

The more I look at the satellite presentation, you may be right. Up-welling may be a non-issue. It certainly is organizing, and continuing to do so at that. There is a decent gradient from North to South in the available TCHP, which could play a huge role in any slight deviation of it's track westward. Any deviation North or south of that forecast track could significantly boost or limit intensification.

The two main Islands (Viti & Vanua) account for 87% of the archipelago's 860,000 inhabitants. Both those Islands are very mountainous with elevations over 4000 feet. Kadavu Island However is flat by comparison and also less populated.

Quoting 183. SouthTampa:

The problem, Naga, is that posters like the one you quoted have created a worldview and will bend science to conform to that worldview, rather than forming an opinion founded in fact and adjusting as new information comes to light. This is unfortunately commonplace.


I know. I think my real beef is with the incoherence of argument. Earlier it was "wait for the PDO AMO to turn in 2030 for global cooling"(?), now it's "the warming isn't real in the first place". Those two worldviews are in direct conflict with each other.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ my favorite web page on the whole internet is repaired! Thank you.
Quoting 185. Naga5000:



I know. I think my real beef is with the incoherence of argument. Earlier it was "wait for the PDO AMO to turn in 2030 for global cooling"(?), now it's "the warming isn't real in the first place". Those two worldviews are in direct conflict with each other.
Well, contradiction and hypocrisy should never get in the way of winning an internet argument or making a dollar or proving metaphysics...
Quoting 105. Xyrus2000:



Ocean circulation patterns do not remove energy from the system. They move it around.

I'm not sure why this is such a difficult concept for deniers to understand. The sun hits the Earth with a certain amount of energy. The Earth radiates a certain amount of energy. The ONLY thing that changes long term global temperatures is the delta between incoming and outgoing radiation.

It's simple. If the Earth isn't radiating it, it's staying here. It doesn't matter if it's sitting in the atmosphere or buried under a mile of ocean. JB and others of his ilk believe energy just magically "goes away". It doesn't. It remains in the system until it is removed from the system. The only way for energy to be removed from the Earth's system is to radiate it off into space. Greenhouse gases reduce the Earth's capability to do this. It doesn't matter if it's 10 watts or a fraction of a watt. If it ain't leaving, it's staying here. If it's staying here, then sooner or later it ends up impacting the climate system.

There is no known mechanism in the universe where heat just magically vanishes. Deniers can't seem to grasp this most basic concept. Joe "I use my buttocks to think" Bastardi, who has a met degree, should know this concept quite well. And yet he continues to spew hist moronic denier BS at every opportunity.

Perhaps JB should look into whether or not those protein supplements he's downing are affecting neurological functions.


Negative PDO is strongly correlated with slower warming of the atmosphere. Ocean heat content increases during these times but when we are tracking atmospheric temperatures, less warming (aughts) or cooling (1950s-60s.. won't happen again) is clear. And the bidecadal cycling of the PDO is clear in time series. I am not aware of any theoretical explanation which explains this.. it is just an observation. Early 30s is a likely time for the next long term sign change.

You are correct that total heat change is not restricted to that in the atmosphere and during negative PDO periods, ocean heat storage increases.

Quoting 185. Naga5000:



I know. I think my real beef is with the incoherence of argument. Earlier it was "wait for the PDO AMO to turn in 2030 for global cooling"(?), now it's "the warming isn't real in the first place". Those two worldviews are in direct conflict with each other.


The warming is real. PDO sign change in the early 30s will slow but not stop the atmosphere portion of the warming though deniers may be energised by the slowdown.
Quoting 147. PedleyCA:



Was it my turn to hog it all? Looks like the rest of it is headed your way. Hang on its coming....



It finally arrived................ all 0.04 of it! drip drip drip
Quoting 174. fmbill:


Forecast Discussion



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180912
SPC AC 180912

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH
DAY 8 AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN TANDEM WITH
THE INTENSIFYING UPPER SYSTEM...AND A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 02/18/2016





So Norman is saying confidence in organized severe threat is low but our favorite Florida forecaster is saying on here that Florida can expect a tornado outbreak. Hmmm. Who should we listen to? #hype
Quoting 152. SwadeotheRockies:

I find it interesting and questionable that nearly every month over the last year plus has broken the all time warmest record month since 1880. I also find it hard to believe and wonder what biases might be involved here. I bet in 1880 to 1920, for example, there were far fewer weather monitoring stations in the world.
I feel this information is misleading about records since 136 years is but a mere fraction of how long the earth has been habitable even for humans. Lets see 100,000 years or more since human like ancestors began roaming the earth: 136/100,000 = .136 percent of our time here, so less than 1%. Technology has made everything more accurate and gives more people the opportunity to record weather data in more places than ever before. Does that really make everything more and greater? I would be interested to learn how this data is/ was collected by NASA and NOAA and from which locations. I know Global Warming is responsible, etc., etc., ad nauseum but come on, the earth is much older than this measly 135 year span of "accurately recording weather data"!!


Our civilization, technology and infrastructure are adapted to current conditions. Warming (or cooling) will be hugely disruptive. Earth has been warmer than now for most of its existence but has never been this warm since Homo Sapiens emerged as a species ~100,000 years ago. There is also no precedent for the warming rates we are seeing now and they should be treated as an ecological shock.. the sort that causes massive extinctions because conditions are changing faster than the ecosystems can adapt.
Quoting 189. georgevandenberghe:



The warming is real. PDO sign change in the early 30s will slow but not stop the atmosphere portion of the warming though deniers may be energised by the slowdown.


It seems when the PDO goes cold there is an increase in the amount of energy that finds its way into the ocean. Overall it suggests that looking at the bigger picture is just as if not more important than the focus on surface temps.
Quoting 175. NativeSun:

You can't compare the way the temps were measured back then to the way they are measured today, or the accuracy of those thermometers, compared to todays satellite measuring devices. as far as that goes, you can only go back to the satellite temp measuring time to run your data base for the world temps. We need apples to apples, not apples to oranges.

So the proxy data from satellites is better than the direct data from the surface? Please explain.
Quoting 166. Jedkins01:



I'm surprised the February average is only 3.53 inches, that's about average for much of Florida in February, and this is the dry season. In most of Florida, rainy season months average 7-10 inches per month for about 4 months or so. Everyone thinks of Seattle as the rainy city of the U.S., but there are other cities in the U.S. like Miami New Orleans, Orlando, New York, that average quite a bit more rainfall. Seattle is somewhat protected from getting the heaviest rains that occur in the Northwest by terrain changes.


If you look at this image, the coastal mountain range (Olympic Mountains) seems to produce a slight shadowing effect in the valley between them and the Cascades. On the other side of the Cascades the shadowing is much more pronounced with most locations only averaging less than a foot of rain all year.

[Link]
Quoting 72. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, the temperature at 850 mb is more important. I've watched it snow (didn't stick of course) with temperatures in the mid 40s at ground level before. They were also nice huge silver dollar sized flakes too.



People often use the 540dm 1000-500mb thickness line as a rain/snow indicator. It works in stratified precipitation with low level cold air, typical of continental winter and warm advection situations. In high lapse rate air masses with cold aloft and not as cold surfaces, it totally fails and it's possible to be above freezing at sfc
with a 1000-500mb thickness as low as 504DM or so. Mean rain/snow thicknesses in the Pacific NW are about 522-518DM because those air masses have passed over water (generally) and are warmer at the surface and colder
aloft for a given thickness. Watch for this in spring and convective snow situations in the midwest and east.. it rains at much colder thicknesses than 540.

The mean rain/snow 850mb temperature in the East is about -2C. In a very stratified air mass it can be 0C or even a little higher.. these are situations where the rain/snow line is near the 550 thickness line. High thickness snow is most common here in February.

A Buffalo forecasting rule for Lake Effect in Mid Fall, puts the threshold 850MB temperature for lake effect snow rather than showers at -7C. THey don't look at thicknesses in this situation.. boundary layer temperature is key.


Reports of 4-24 inches new snow in the Sierras.

Link
Quoting 166. Jedkins01:



I'm surprised the February average is only 3.53 inches, that's about average for much of Florida in February, and this is the dry season. In most of Florida, rainy season months average 7-10 inches per month for about 4 months or so. Everyone thinks of Seattle as the rainy city of the U.S., but there are other cities in the U.S. like Miami New Orleans, Orlando, New York, that average quite a bit more rainfall. Seattle is somewhat protected from getting the heaviest rains that occur in the Northwest by terrain changes.


It's funny, my husband I were talking about when we lived in Tally during Tropical Storm Fay. We got more rain in that 48 hour period than we get in 7-8 months here. Seattle averages roughly 40 inches of rain a year, half of which falls between November 1 and January 30. The other 20 inches are spread out over the remaining 9 months or so. Seattle, thankfully, is protected from a lot of rain by the Olympic Mountains. On the other side of those mountains is the Hoh Rainforest, because well they get to keep the rain. Most major cities in the US get more rain than Seattle. It's just our rain is spread out. Our "dry season" runs from July - August. Really the last two weeks of July, and the first two weeks of August. Other than that, rain is possible.

I'd be curious what plantmoretrees total precip for Feb is so far. I know areas farther north, out of the rainshadow, have been hammered lately.... I might do some research later when time is more available.
Quoting 196. georgevandenberghe:




People often use the 540dm 1000-500mb thickness line as a rain/snow indicator. It works in stratified precipitation with low level cold air, typical of continental winter and warm advection situations. In high lapse rate air masses with cold aloft and not as cold surfaces, it totally fails and it's possible to be above freezing at sfc
with a 1000-500mb thickness as low as 504DM or so. Mean rain/snow thicknesses in the Pacific NW are about 522-518DM because those air masses have passed over water (generally) and are warmer at the surface and colder
aloft for a given thickness. Watch for this in spring and convective snow situations in the midwest and east.. it rains at much colder thicknesses than 540.

The mean rain/snow 850mb temperature in the East is about -2C. In a very stratified air mass it can be 0C or even a little higher.. these are situations where the rain/snow line is near the 550 thickness line. High thickness snow is most common here in February.

A Buffalo forecasting rule for Lake Effect in Mid Fall, puts the threshold 850MB temperature for lake effect snow rather than showers at -7C. THey don't look at thicknesses in this situation.. boundary layer temperature is key.




In Holland when flow is over the North Sea, I take T850 at -7° C first half of the winter, a couple degrees higher for second half.
Quoting 177. Naga5000:



I wish you would stop repeating lies and falsehoods about the data. The satellite data is more problematic than the thermometer temperature record. Much more uncertainty, bad agreement between data sets, bad agreement with radiosonde observations. The thermometer record, on the other hand, can be corrected for previous reporting difficulties. Those corrections, while discussed in the methodology AND peer reviewed AND accepted as valid AND available for you to read, at your convenience online, have been shown to be valid by comparison with the pristine USCRN data.




Along with explanation

[Link]
Quoting 182. Neapolitan:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
128 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHOENIX AZ AND YUMA AZ...
...WARMEST TEMPERATURE SO EARLY IN THE YEAR AT PHOENIX AZ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHOENIX AZ
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 2014.

THIS IS THE EARLIEST IN THE CALENDAR YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS EVER
BEEN RECORDED AT PHOENIX AZ.


How nuts, I remember talking about Phoenix never reaching 90 in Dec/Jan just a couple days ago here with BB and SFLcat5
Quoting 192. georgevandenberghe:



Our civilization, technology and infrastructure are adapted to current conditions. Warming (or cooling) will be hugely disruptive. Earth has been warmer than now for most of its existence but has never been this warm since Homo Sapiens emerged as a species ~100,000 years ago. There is also no precedent for the warming rates we are seeing now and they should be treated as an ecological shock.. the sort that causes massive extinctions because conditions are changing faster than the ecosystems can adapt.


Which is exactly why posing the whiny "it was hotter is the past" argument is pointless. While those who pose the argument are entirely correct, all of our modern society (key word is modern ~ 200 years back at most) is based on a snap shot of the earth's climate at one particular instance in time. Everything that is required to make our comfortable lives exist is based on an incredibly narrow climate window. It's like basing what you will wear for clothing for the entire year on one two minute time frame during the third Tuesday in May.

So shelve the "hotter in past argument". It works from an academic "I'm technically right, so there!" point of view, but does exactly diddly-squat for how we are going to get through this mess.
203. vis0

How do astroids die?
(Above is a tri-link link)(BTW some sites used "murder" in their title, i think that  is not a "good" explanation, why not?. Go read on MY zilly blog pg. 7 cmmnt#324 and please keep replies there.
(AD) But lets wait a bit maybe "Waston" might solve this crime with more clues... (AD)
weather:: At the moment a bit of "normal" between the extremes of before and coming UP next week.
Quoting 200. win1gamegiantsplease:



Along with explanation

[Link]


Thanks!
latest on the El Faro sinking out of Jacksonville,FL...Link
Quoting 202. tlawson48:



Which is exactly why posing the whiny "it was hotter is the past" argument is pointless. While those who pose the argument are entirely correct, all of our modern society (key word is modern ~ 200 years back at most) is based on a snap shot of the earth's climate at one particular instance in time. Everything that is required to make our comfortable lives exist is based on an incredibly narrow climate window. It's like basing what you will wear for clothing for the entire year on one two minute time frame during the third Tuesday in May.

So shelve the "hotter in past argument". It works from an academic "I'm technically right, so there!" point of view, but does exactly diddly-squat for how we are going to get through this mess.


I'm honestly not concerned about humans ability to adapt to a changing climate. We are the most adaptable species this planet has ever seen.

The real issue is, how will the rest of the world adapt? A lot of our flora and fauna won't and will simply die off. Without functioning ecosystems, how can we survive? While we our highly adaptable, we are still entirely dependent on earths systems to survive. My greatest concern is that we will see a population tipping point within my life time (I'm 30 for reference) due to overpopulation and food scarcity caused by failing ecosystems due to climate change.

When animal populations hit a tipping point, you usually just see a large die off of their species. Unfortunately we have weapons and nukes, I'm doubtful a large die off of humans won't be met with intense violence that will make WW2 look like a street brawl.
Quoting 203. vis0:


How do astroids die?
(Above is a tri-link link)(BTW some sites used "murder" in their title, i think that  is not a "good" explanation, why not?. Go read on MY zilly blog pg. 7 cmmnt#324 and please keep replies there.
(AD) But lets wait a bit maybe "Waston" might solve this crime with more clues... (AD)
weather:: At the moment a bit of "normal" between the extremes of before and coming UP next week.

Greetings Vis...Watson is only as good as the info crammed into it. I would guess they get pulverized if enough time goes by, only for new ones come along from super nova's and other impacts.
Quoting 129. sar2401:

As I wrote earlier, download the software from the Ambient website and install it from your hard drive. The two biggest problems with the 2095 are the wireless signal strength and the accuracy of the thermometer. I had one a couple of years ago. The 433MHz signal is subject to a lot of interference, especially if you live in a big metropolitan area that's RF dense. Before you install it, put the console where you're going to keep it and then try a couple of different locations to install the sensors, assuming you have that option. Pick the one that shows five bars (or the highest reading you can get) before you put it up on the pole. I don't know where you're going to mount it, but try to make sure you have a good line of sight from the sensors to the console before you finalize the location.

The biggest issue I had with it was the inadequate shielding on the temperature sensor. The shield that comes with the station will not give accurate readings if the sensor is in direct sunlight, always reading 5-10 degrees too high. Ambient does have a replacement shield that does a better job at what seemed like an outrageous $40 to me. I finally broke down and got one, and it did improve the performance, but temperatures on a hot day were still too high by 2-3 degrees compared to a shaded known accurate thermometer. I'd still recommend getting one and installing it before you put up the sensors.

I don't think you'll have many problems getting it to work with your computer. Just follow the steps in the manual and it should work. I had mine working fine in 10 minutes with Vista, never the best OS with new hardware. I think Ambient has some kind of marketing agreement with WU. It's closely tied in with the PWS system here, and that should be an easy process as well. Good luck.


I have a pretty good line of sight where I plan to put it, signal will be coming thru one outside brick wall with 2 windows straight to the console in the room, shouldn't be a problem. Tried hooking the console up to the laptop with the USB cable and the EasyWeather software is not seeing it and the station didn't beep like the manual said it would, so the computer isn't picking it up.

Also confused with the Weatherbridge Wifi thing as what and how it's supposed to be used. I've registered my station with WU but until I figure out how to get the software to recognize the console first I can't link it to WU, then how it works after pulling out the USB is beyond me. I thought the little white box hooked up to the console and it sends the Wifi signal to the router in the other room so it displays on internet.
There's been a little more improvement in California's drought situation, but "little" is a relative term here; the state is still in dire straits, and with El Nino fading quickly, I don't expect we'll see much more to celebrate this year. Still, keeping my fingers crossed...

210. vis0

Quoting 126. gulfbreeze:

The Tornado that hit Century Fl, Monday night north of Pensacola , Fl. was a EF-3 with 152 . That is very rare for this part of the country. We also had some wind down burst that did a lot of damage in North Pensacola, Fl. 20,000 where with out power. It's early for this kind of weather.
I also saw a post saying Water temps are in the 50's in the Gulf off the west coast of Florida in the water off the Florida N/W coast they are in the mid 60's 65 0r so . Want take mush to push them up. I think we could see an early Hurricane season!
AL was kind-of right (~EF v F to be picky)...opps (though i did not post anything as i like to wait for official reports THEN see if others agree or disagree or a later re-check confirms the first go around as to real weather now as to MODELS  ...those are for infotainment purposes only and to keep a blog active during lulls in so called laymen weather activities.

i'm thinking of upgrading my anemometer to the pinwheel 2000  It not only measures wind-speed but also gives one wind direction,  just following the bubbles that come out its top. (soapy solution not included, gonna have to takes sar2401s advice see if i can download load that from their main site.)

As to weather around the globe?
Its getting warmer as a whole, so enjoy the drastic extremes while they last, in 2 generations it'll just be warm with extreme warming, i cannot imagine the many more AC units going up in CANADA, EUROPE, RUSSIA.  e need to build office towers with module walls so they can be refitted to accept that invention i posted last year that takes crosswinds the would go past a window and feeds them into window openings otherwise this aGW will create another spike as AC demands rise ~ 2035AD in areas still cool today.
211. MahFL
+SN at Truckee, CA again.
I think that one of the most exciting things coming worldwide in the future as the earth warms is going to be what innovations we are going to see in the construction industry in terms of housing humans. In the more developed world (with electricity) we will hopefully see a trend towards more energy efficient housing (and more alternative renewable sources to generate the electricity).

The interesting thing will be in terms housing in the less developed parts of the world that will take into account designs made to help diffuse heat for the residents during drought and heat wave periods (and assuming that fresh water for drinking and agriculture is not an issue-available to sustain basic life in any given region due to climate change). This thought crossed my mind when I watched a new PBS documentary last night on the Nepal earthquake last year and some scientists contributing to building design issues (they built a home for a local man) using simple materials on a small one room home to replicate some of the issues in older buildings there that sustained less damage (with wooden timbers in the wall creating a "cage" around the perimeter of some buildings) as compared to some of the newer construction. Same type of challenges we will see with warming friendly homes in the future I would think. This is going to be a big issue for people living in-near the equatorial regions around the globe.
213. MahFL
Quoting 205. hydrus:

latest on the El Faro sinking out of Jacksonville,FL...Link


Sounds like they are covering up a bad decision by multiple "I don't knows" as an answer.
Quoting 166. Jedkins01:



I'm surprised the February average is only 3.53 inches, that's about average for much of Florida in February, and this is the dry season. In most of Florida, rainy season months average 7-10 inches per month for about 4 months or so. Everyone thinks of Seattle as the rainy city of the U.S., but there are other cities in the U.S. like Miami New Orleans, Orlando, New York, that average quite a bit more rainfall. Seattle is somewhat protected from getting the heaviest rains that occur in the Northwest by terrain changes.

I think the difference between rainfall in the Pacific Northwest and Florida is that in the PNW from October/November to February/March we tend get a lot of grey drizzly days that aren't heavy precipitation but continuous. I can remember periods of up to 3 weeks like that before a break then it starts again. That's why they call the PNW (west of the Cascades) rainy. In Florida my impression is they mostly get heavy rainfall events that don't last that long then it clears off.
The trough in the EAST should become highly amplified by next week. There will be several chances of significant snow in the Northeast next week
Quoting 170. StormTrackerScott:

Today's update on this WWB has it increasing in amplitude. Not good for la-Nina prospect or even neutral for that matter as this "could" help El-Nino continue thru Summer as a new OKW forms.



This winter has brought exciting weather to Florida! I would love to see another El Nino.
Quoting 215. riverat544:


I think the difference between rainfall in the Pacific Northwest and Florida is that in the PNW from October/November to February/March we tend get a lot of grey drizzly days that aren't heavy precipitation but continuous. I can remember periods of up to 3 weeks like that before a break then it starts again. That's why they call the PNW (west of the Cascades) rainy. In Florida my impression is they mostly get heavy rainfall events that don't last that long then it clears off.


Pretty good break down. During the "dry season" here in Florida it is sunny and beautiful almost every day. We'll get an occasional cold front with a nice line of thunderstorms every once in a while. Then we go back to lots of sunny days.

What a lot of people don't know is it's actually very sunny in my area of S.W. Florida even during the rainy season. Almost every day it's very sunny until about 2 pm in the afternoon. Then we have very strong sea breeze thunderstorm that form. Usually the weather clears up in time for a beautiful sunset in the GOM.
Just make sure to plan any outdoor activities (like going to the beach) for the first half of the day, because we get storms almost everyday in the afternoon.

I know S.E. Florida's summer rain pattern is different than over here in S.W. Florida. But even S.E. Florida gets a lot of sun on most summer days. And it's sunny almost everyday during the dry season in S.E. Florida.
222. MahFL
Quoting 218. WeatherConvoy:


This winter has brought exciting weather to Florida! I would love to see another El Nino.


Not my part of Fl, it's been pretty boring here.
Quoting 185. Naga5000:



I know. I think my real beef is with the incoherence of argument. Earlier it was "wait for the PDO AMO to turn in 2030 for global cooling"(?), now it's "the warming isn't real in the first place". Those two worldviews are in direct conflict with each other.

Contradictions hypnotize and that's often what they are for. Arbeit macht frei, stuff like that is typical.
Thundershowers with heavy rain and occasional hail all night long here in the SF Bay Area. Heavy snow reported in the Sierra.
Each of today's 12z runs have different outcomes/solutions for next week. Lots of energies to track as well as differences in timing.
Quoting 206. pipelines:



I'm honestly not concerned about humans ability to adapt to a changing climate. We are the most adaptable species this planet has ever seen.

The real issue is, how will the rest of the world adapt? A lot of our flora and fauna won't and will simply die off. Without functioning ecosystems, how can we survive? While we our highly adaptable, we are still entirely dependent on earths systems to survive. My greatest concern is that we will see a population tipping point within my life time (I'm 30 for reference) due to overpopulation and food scarcity caused by failing ecosystems due to climate change.

When animal populations hit a tipping point, you usually just see a large die off of their species. Unfortunately we have weapons and nukes, I'm doubtful a large die off of humans won't be met with intense violence that will make WW2 look like a street brawl.

Well, its BIG subject and one thing for sure a lot of very bad things have happened to the worlds climate from the point of view of the flora and fauna over the last billion years.
I agree that things will be grim and I agree that as you say you are 30, I will believe you. I'm 66 nearly, so possibly you can believe that but the future is not about beliefs; its about facts and possibilities!
I think but I don't know or believe, I will see abrupt changes in the worlds human interactions with the planet.
Of course there are too many people for the resources but that does not change the fact that there are too many people?
So forget about people being instantly reduced and look at the situation like its a planetary lifestyle war zone, which it will probably be in the near future.
The solution is to stop technological progress and manufacturing. Hence you have a massive depression where only basic food stuffs are available, some of them manufactured.
Gradually the population will adjust both in numbers and attitudes to the new order. At this point we get a new phase where for the first time humans look at the effects of their actions in advance, rather than looking for solutions to their actions after the unexpected results of them.
This needless to say may lead to a massive reduction in the number of humans on the planet but not by extermination or genocide, simply but adjustment to survival within the available resources, over several generations.

This is not the end? Its not even the beginning of the end but perhaps we are approaching the end of the beginning of the next phase of humanity.
Quoting 207. hydrus:

Greetings Vis...Watson is only as good as the info crammed into it. I would guess they get pulverized if enough time goes by, only for new ones come along from super nova's and other impacts.
There is considerable evidence that many, if not most, asteroids that loop in close to the Sun and Earth, are actually comets that have essentially quit outgassing due to a coating of sludge and organic compounds on their surface. However, they still lose some gas and dust, just not enough to make a visible tail. Eventually they get so reduced that they just dissolve into a band of debris, and when Earth encounters that band we see a meteor shower. Eventually, I suppose, many wind up as dirt on Earth!

CoCoRaHS around the corner from me reported .26 in, not great but what was expected...
Quoting 208. RitaEvac:



I have a pretty good line of sight where I plan to put it, signal will be coming thru one outside brick wall with 2 windows straight to the console in the room, shouldn't be a problem. Tried hooking the console up to the laptop with the USB cable and the EasyWeather software is not seeing it and the station didn't beep like the manual said it would, so the computer isn't picking it up.

Also confused with the Weatherbridge Wifi thing as what and how it's supposed to be used. I've registered my station with WU but until I figure out how to get the software to recognize the console first I can't link it to WU, then how it works after pulling out the USB is beyond me. I thought the little white box hooked up to the console and it sends the Wifi signal to the router in the other room so it displays on internet.
Let's take it one step at a time. In order to configure the Weatherbridge for an IP (WiFi) connection, you first have to get it working using the USB cable. When you have it plugged in, does the status light ever change to solid green, or does it continue to flash rapidly? If it's still flashing, that means the Weatherbridge hasn't seen an internet connection back to your router. You need to determine what the assigned device address is in Windows. There are details abouot how to do this at the Meteobridge website.. Once you have a working cable connection, we can go on to the WiFi part.
242. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach %u200F@philklotzbach
About 1/2 of all models are calling for La Nina to develop by autumn.
Quoting 242. JRRP:

Philip Klotzbach %u200F@philklotzbach
About 1/2 of all models are calling for La Nina to develop by autumn.

Brian L Kahn ‏@blkahn 3h3 hours ago
Model-only guidance continues to indicate rising odds of La Niña by fall. Image via
Quoting 243. washingtonian115:




Good run for us, especially the western burbs
Thanks Dr. Masters. Hey guys what's up
Quoting 246. Drakoen:



Good run for us, especially the western burbs
At least the Euro (for now) has been consistent in showing some snow for us while the GFS has wavering back and forth.
Looks like the Northeast gets a storm almost weekly huh........................
Quoting 195. win1gamegiantsplease:



If you look at this image, the coastal mountain range (Olympic Mountains) seems to produce a slight shadowing effect in the valley between them and the Cascades. On the other side of the Cascades the shadowing is much more pronounced with most locations only averaging less than a foot of rain all year.

[Link]

There's a dramatic rain shadow effect NE of the Olympics, on the peninsula. There truly is a 15-20" annual precip area. The first dairy farmers had to clear a native cactus out of their fields.

Won't be cool for long...
Hurricanes release the Oceans heat into the atmosphere and outer space............Link
Quoting 251. Bucsboltsfan:



El Niño isn't over yet. Plenty of crazy weather still to happen over the next couple of months.


Nino 3.4 back on the rise for now.

Models showing a more definitive drop with the AO..MJO looks decent for a storm, NAO, not so much.

"Puppymonkeybaby ?"

January CO2 January 2016: 402.52 ppm

January 2015: 399.96 ppm


US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 18 2016


Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE GULF COAST, WHERE IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.
Quoting 253. LargoFl:

Hurricanes release the Oceans heat into the atmosphere and outer space............Link


So the answer to anthropogenic global warming is through the production of more major hurricanes? Enough hurricanes to counterbalance the amount of warming influenced by the greenhouse gases? Does cyclonebuster know of this? He is trying to reduce the strength of hurricanes. Should we try to stop him?
Quoting 253. LargoFl:

Hurricanes release the Oceans heat into the atmosphere and outer space............Link

Yup this is something I looked into before. Keep in mind that the majority of the heat is adiabatically released via condensation back into the atmosphere-climate system. The higher the hurricane's cloud tops, i.e. hot towers, the more likely the heat is to make its way to outerspace. The cumulative heating/cooling effects of a hurricane are extremely complex and difficult to calculate over time. Clouds reflect sunlight but also trap heat and hurricanes move vast plumes of heat and moisture to far flung latitudes - thus changing the heat transfer dynamics further.
I was so focused on the rainfall yesterday, I missed something obvious. I noticed it was warm, as in I went outside without a coat. As it turns out yesterday broke the daily maximum record. Heh.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
523 PM PST WED FEB 17 2016

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 2015.


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT SEATTLE WA WFO...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 2015 AND 2007.
Quoting 260. Seattleite:

I was so focused on the rainfall yesterday, I missed something obvious. I noticed it was warm, as in I went outside without a coat. As it turns out yesterday broke the daily maximum record. Heh.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
523 PM PST WED FEB 17 2016

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 2015.


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT SEATTLE WA WFO...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 2015 AND 2007.


We are also missing the obvious when we do not take note that record high temperatures seem to be falling over a shorter time frame than they were just 30 years ago.
Quoting 259. VibrantPlanet:


Yup this is something I looked into before. Keep in mind that the majority of the heat is adiabatically released via condensation back into the atmosphere-climate system. The higher the hurricane's cloud tops, i.e. hot towers, the more likely the heat is to make its way to outerspace. The cumulative heating/cooling effects of a hurricane are extremely complex and difficult to calculate over time. Clouds reflect sunlight but also trap heat and hurricanes move vast plumes of heat and moisture to far flung latitudes - thus changing the heat transfer dynamics further.


What about the heat energy from supercell thunderstorms, which can top 60,000 ft on occasion?
Quoting 245. Gearsts:

Brian L Kahn ‏@blkahn 3h3 hours ago
Model-only guidance continues to indicate rising odds of La Niña by fall. Image via



The CFS forecast could be a huge bust :)

ECMWF EPS 12z:

Double post
Closing in on our expected high of 51 as winds pick up and pressure decreases. We're at 48 in S C IL currently, w/ SE winds gusting to 32 and around 11-15 steady. Press this a.m. was in 30.3" range, has already dropped below 30.1". Winds are expected to gust above 40 after midnight, and maybe hit 50 tomorrow as major warm up occurs, mid 60s here, StL may get near record of 76, though most showed lower 70s high. Winds die down into Sat, w/ temps just slightly lower, then T'storms later Sat. night. Back to more normal range by mid week. Bet lots of UTVs get out cruising country roads this weekend, had mine out during Jan. thaw, so this will be second trip out for me.

Hey Joe, glad ya got something & that at least Uriah in an area where won't be stealin' when should've been buyin'. Will have to play that at dart league tonight. :)
Quoting 261. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



We are also missing the obvious when we do not take note that record high temperatures seem to be falling over a shorter time frame than they were just 30 years ago.


Agreed. I was pondering that earlier. I mentioned in a prior post that we had 13 days last year with an inch of rain or more. That was a new record in 2015. It's hard to adequately articulate just how weird it's been. Lately it seems like the records are falling as fast as the rain.
That 1F rise in Average Global temps does impart that 7% rise in Global Water Vapor, and the direct affect is seen in more joules per square meter of atmosphere. That much more WV is available to infuse the rain rates and severity as well.

The theme I have been pounding home here for 9 years is obvious more and more each quarter year. The obs continue to outpace the Global Climate Modeling estimates....of temps, rain rates, record PWATs,et al.





The last time the Earth warmed 5 degree's C, it took 12,500 years.

Were on a pace to do it in less than 400 with 180 of them years behind us.

Food fo thought.


2016, the year the AGW infused climate forcing's increase worldwide.




270. Tcwx2
Is the GFS solution 264 hours out possible? Or should we just look over it until it's about 4-6 days out.
The 500mb anomalies on the GFS and ECMWF ensembles favor a low track not dissimilar to Miller A cyclone. With minimum 500mb anomalies south of the Mid-Atlantic over the Carolinas, this favors a low track east and south of Virginia. Strong positive PNA/ negative EPO western ridging could allow the trough to dig over the central U.S. coupled with the anomalously higher heights east of the Canadian Maritimes could establish upper level confluence off the eastern seaboard and help drive the low up the coast. Still a lot of players on the field to watch and monitor as we head into early next week.
Quoting 251. Bucsboltsfan:



El Niño isn't over yet. Plenty of crazy weather still to happen over the next couple of months.
I have a feeling that the crazy weather will continue for a few hundred years...
Quoting 270. Tcwx2:

Is the GFS solution 264 hours out possible? Or should we just look over it until it's about 4-6 days out.
In general, weather forecasting models can be considered to be quite accurate out to 72 hours and the better models often turn out to be fairly accurate out to 120 hours. Beyond that, the accuracy level diminishes rapidly.
Quoting 253. LargoFl:

Hurricanes release the Oceans heat into the atmosphere and outer space............Link


Any strong storm system (not just hurricanes) can transfer heat to the upper troposphere where it would have an easier time escaping the Earth's blanket of greenhouse gases. The problem is, compared to the Earth's insolation such storms are the proverbial "fart in a hurricane". Even if such storms drastically increased in number (not really a good thing) they wouldn't offset the increased forcing from additional greenhouse gases.

That's not even getting into the fact that to support more such storms would require an increase in water vapor, which in turn increases heat capture*.

*If it is a sustained increase in water vapor. Water vapor has a very short atmospheric lifetime so if the conditions causing the increase in water vapor are not sustained then the excess water vapor is not sustained.
276. Tcwx2
Thanks. Sure wish it will be right.
Quoting 273. FLWaterFront:

In general, weather forecasting models can be considered to be quite accurate out to 72 hours and the better models often turn out to be fairly accurate out to 120 hours. Beyond that, the accuracy level diminishes rapidly.
Quoting 257. nrtiwlnvragn:

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 18 2016


Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE GULF COAST, WHERE IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.

So is it a do-over of Tuesday?
Quoting 261. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



We are also missing the obvious when we do not take note that record high temperatures seem to be falling over a shorter time frame than they were just 30 years ago.


Six of the monthly average temperature records in DC have been set in the nine year period beginning October 2007

Oct 2007
June 2010
July 2011
March 2012
May 2015
December 2015

And two of the past four seasons.

Summer 2010
Spring 2012.


Period of record is 140 years.
279. vis0

Quoting 256. Patrap:

"Puppymonkeybaby ?"

January CO2 January 2016: 402.52 ppm

January 2015: 399.96 ppm



DISCLAIMER::
NOT making fun of anyone whom uses any of the following life sustaining devices. Just that in the future as the air gets worse we might have more of a need for these life sustaining devices.  If you think that the name in jest is bad then would it not be worse if one did not care and the Art became reality?

 so in a few centuries it might lead some to see a super bowl Ad called, respiratorventalatorvaporizor?
Quoting 272. cynyc2:

I have a feeling that the crazy weather will continue for a few hundred years...


I would think that it will not be called crazy weather in a few decades. It will likely be seen as what is normal to them. A period of relative stability will be the crazy weather to them.
281. bwi
We just had a wonderful January vacation on a smaller island (Ono) just northeast of Kadavu Island, Fiji. Totally unspoiled lands, waters, and reefs. We saw TC Winston off the left of the plane when we returned to Nadi from New Zealand last Saturday. Very upsetting to see that it now so threatens the islands and their people.

Quoting 262. Sfloridacat5:



What about the heat energy from supercell thunderstorms, which can top 60,000 ft on occasion?

The energy is there, but nothing near the magnitude of an organized tropical system. It is like comparing a bucket of water to a swimming pool.
Referring to comment 281. bwi:


Close to Tonga Islands right now.

Quoting 271. Drakoen:

The 500mb anomalies on the GFS and ECMWF ensembles favor a low track not dissimilar to Miller A cyclone. With minimum 500mb anomalies south of the Mid-Atlantic over the Carolinas, this favors a low track east and south of Virginia. Strong positive PNA/ negative EPO western ridging could allow the trough to dig over the central U.S. coupled with the anomalously higher heights east of the Canadian Maritimes could establish upper level confluence off the eastern seaboard and help drive the low up the coast. Still a lot of players on the field to watch and monitor as we head into early next week.


The ILM discussion mentioned the trough might be out of phase with the polar vortex and might not be as strong. Either way if you get snow enjoy it, it'll probably rain here as usual.


Another 2.0+ Mw earthquakes occurred in central Oklahoma today. Two earthquake swarms also occurred today and Monday at Lassen Volcanic NP, today's being located near Lake Helen and Bumpass Hell (hydrothermal network) just south of the main volcano, and Monday's near Juniper Lake
Great googly ooglies! The 12Z and especially the 18Z GFS runs are on crack! Massive ice and snow storm for the deep south Feb 29 thru March 3rd..No freakin way that verifies!
Quoting 286. PensacolaDoug:




Even if that was half as close to now I'd need to see it to believe it.
Quoting 282. jeffs713:


The energy is there, but nothing near the magnitude of an organized tropical system. It is like comparing a bucket of water to a swimming pool.


Of course. One thunderstorm vs. an organized tropical system (hurricane for example). That's like comparing a fire cracker to an atomic bomb.

But I wonder how many thunderstorms (frontal or not) are taking place at any given moment around the World? I'm to lazy right now to look it up.

Quoting 288. win1gamegiantsplease:



Even if that was half as close to now I'd need to see it to believe it.


That's in the Unreliable range. Here's how I do my reliability ranges for the GFS

0-168 hours: Reliable
168-180 hours: Mostly Reliable
180-240 hours: Partially Reliable
240-300 hours: Unreliable
300-384 hours: Fantasy Land
NOAA: "January was the 9th Consecutive Month of a Record Warm Globe"
From NOAA's monthly media briefing:



More at Quark Soup ...
Nice to see that the link from the Hurricane page to Doc's blog got fixed! Thanks, Admin! :-)
Quoting 288. win1gamegiantsplease:



Even if that was half as close to now I'd need to see it to believe it.



Believe it, my friend. And this frame of the GFS shows what I think to be a major, MAJOR epic ice storm for Texas!

I suppose I do get a little bit of good news today, though:

Quoting 290. 62901IL:



That's in the Unreliable range. Here's how I do my reliability ranges for the GFS

0-168 hours: Reliable
168-180 hours: Mostly Reliable
180-240 hours: Partially Reliable
240-300 hours: Unreliable
300-384 hours: Fantasy Land



Then the graphic I just posted at post #293 falls into the UNRELIABLE category? (Hope so!)
Quoting 281. bwi:

We just had a wonderful January vacation on a smaller island (Ono) just northeast of Kadavu Island, Fiji. Totally unspoiled lands, waters, and reefs. We saw TC Winston off the left of the plane when we returned to Nadi from New Zealand last Saturday. Very upsetting to see that it now so threatens the islands and their people.




Will be thinking of the islands

Quoting 295. pureet1948:




Then the graphic I just posted at post #293 falls into the UNRELIABLE category? (Hope so!)


288 hours is 12 days away. Models are crunching data being obtained at the present to compute these multi-variable pde's which can change significantly if even a single parameter is altered by a certain degree. Atmospheric dynamics can change a bit in between that time, resulting in adjusted datasets, which is why we usually see alterations in newer runs of the models.

Our better tools seem to do a decent job of keying out the types of air masses, upper level flows, etc that could come into play for future weather, but their timing, location, intensity, size are hard to get right that far down the road.
Quoting 293. pureet1948:




Believe it, my friend. And this frame of the GFS shows what I think to be a major, MAJOR epic ice storm for Texas!


Dude you know that's the gfs right. The gfs at over 5 days out. If i were you I'd take that with a grain of salt
Quoting 293. pureet1948:




Believe it, my friend. And this frame of the GFS shows what I think to be a major, MAJOR epic ice storm for Texas!




March 1st - LOL...
299. SuzK
Quoting 262. Sfloridacat5:



What about the heat energy from supercell thunderstorms, which can top 60,000 ft on occasion?


I have to mention that 25-30 years ago, cloud tops of 40,000 ft were considered unbelievably high...and I keep waiting for someone to comment on 60,000 ft cloud tops as though they were unusual, but I just keep waiting...
Quoting 299. SuzK:



I have to mention that 25-30 years ago, cloud tops of 40,000 ft were considered unbelievably high...and I keep waiting for someone to comment on 60,000 ft cloud tops as though they were unusual, but I just keep waiting...
Highest I ever saw in Florida was 69,000 ft in the early 1990;s....Highest I,ve ever heard of was 72,000 ft over Oklahoma...70,s' or early 80's.
Quoting 274. Xyrus2000:



Any strong storm system (not just hurricanes) can transfer heat to the upper troposphere where it would have an easier time escaping the Earth's blanket of greenhouse gases. The problem is, compared to the Earth's insolation such storms are the proverbial "fart in a hurricane". Even if such storms drastically increased in number (not really a good thing) they wouldn't offset the increased forcing from additional greenhouse gases.

That's not even getting into the fact that to support more such storms would require an increase in water vapor, which in turn increases heat capture*.

*If it is a sustained increase in water vapor. Water vapor has a very short atmospheric lifetime so if the conditions causing the increase in water vapor are not sustained then the excess water vapor is not sustained.

Besides, there are other offsets. Warmer moist air will release heat all the way up the air column as clouds condense, so not all the heat is making it up to the top where it can radiate out into space. It's actually adding to the heat trapped in the lower levels. And air that is cooled at the top is thereby made denser and will sink back down, heating by compression. Meanwhile, the troposphere as a whole will be getting a bit thicker as it gets warmer, making the volume in which greenhouse gasses can do their work of trapping heat larger.
Quoting 300. hydrus:

Highest I ever saw in Florida was 69,000 ft in the early 1990;s....Highest I,ve ever heard of was 72,000 ft over Oklahoma...70,s' or early 80's.

That would have taken the cloud into the stratosphere at that latitude. I suppose that does happen. High-topped t storms are more usual closer to the Equator due to the greater thickness of the troposphere there.
Quoting 298. Bucsboltsfan:



March 1st - LOL...
Its rare, but does happen in march in Texas and surrounding areas. A ice storm in March 1989, the temps were at first above 70 °F, but suddenly on Friday March 3 and it suddenly got below freezing, and ice started forming in the late evening. By Saturday morning, March 4, the ice was 2–3 inches thick on the roadways. Temperatures stayed cold for several days and the city was at a standstill. A week later on March 11, 1989, the temperature was 95 °F degrees again.
Quoting 303. hydrus:

Its rare, but does happen in march in Texas and surrounding areas. A ice storm in March 1989, the temps were at first above 70 °F, but suddenly on Friday March 3 and it suddenly got below freezing, and ice started forming in the late evening. By Saturday morning, March 4, the ice was 2–3 inches thick on the roadways. Temperatures stayed cold for several days and the city was at a standstill. A week later on March 11, 1989, the temperature was 95 °F degrees again.



Ahhhhh ...the beauty of Houston weather (Tx for that fact)
I've been kind of upset this year as we didnt get enough cold/rainy weather,
Anyone with allergies knows what I am talking about. We lack the cold we needed to get rid of pollen/insects.
I dread summer, its already warm. I do see though that next week it should get about 10F cooler.
I need a few more evenings where I can light my fireplace
Quoting 303. hydrus:

Its rare, but does happen in march in Texas and surrounding areas. A ice storm in March 1989, the temps were at first above 70 °F, but suddenly on Friday March 3 and it suddenly got below freezing, and ice started forming in the late evening. By Saturday morning, March 4, the ice was 2–3 inches thick on the roadways. Temperatures stayed cold for several days and the city was at a standstill. A week later on March 11, 1989, the temperature was 95 °F degrees again.


I wasn't commenting on the date but the overreaction of something 12 days out.
What about the HGX graphic I posted @ post #294? How accurate is that, esp. in regards to the expectation of the greater rainfall amounts occurring NE of the Huntsville region?
Quoting 302. BayFog:


That would have taken the cloud into the stratosphere at that latitude. I suppose that does happen. High-topped t storms are more usual closer to the Equator due to the greater thickness of the troposphere there.
True..Supercells with overshooting tops are the usual record breakers.
Quoting 295. pureet1948:
Quoting 304. justmehouston:




Ahhhhh ...the beauty of Houston weather (Tx for that fact)
I've been kind of upset this year as we didnt get enough cold/rainy weather,
Anyone with allergies knows what I am talking about. We lack the cold we needed to get rid of pollen/insects.
I dread summer, its already warm. I do see though that next week it should get about 10F cooler.
I need a few more evenings where I can light my fireplace
I'm sure you must know that on February 14-15, 1895, 20 inches of snow fell on downtown Houston. I don't know but I would imagine it was probably in the 70s and all the snow was melted within a few days after that.
Quoting 311. FLWaterFront:

I'm sure you must know that on February 14-15, 1895, 20 inches of snow fell on downtown Houston. I don't know but I would imagine it was probably in the 70s and all the snow was melted within a few days after that.


Did not know that, interesting. Thanks
I do remember a Christmas Eve when it snowed. I was with a friend of mine, both of us with our kids celebrating the holiday. The kids got to make a snowman ,,,,it was about 8 inches tall ...not a lot of snow at that time. It was beautiful though.
Quoting 310. BaltimoreBrian:




Link doesn't work.
Yes, it does.
NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 51m51 minutes ago
With the #PNA going back to where it was over the past few weeks. The storms this week could be much #Snowier than what models are showing.

318. SuzK
Quoting 300. hydrus:

Highest I ever saw in Florida was 69,000 ft in the early 1990;s....Highest I,ve ever heard of was 72,000 ft over Oklahoma...70,s' or early 80's.


It may be, Hydrus, that for the upper latitude I lived in (Detroit), 40,000+ was high? I remember our weather man, Jerry Hodak, exclaiming in disbelief at cloud heights at 40,000+ in the 1990's. I'd already been anticipating the CO2 warming for 20 years then, as I had read many reports on the expectations for the global future in college in the 70's. These are not hurricane/cyclones Im referring to, which I know to be in a different category than a supercell storm on land. Thanks for your input!
There was 30" at Beaumont TX in the Feb 1895 storm.
Temperatures in Galveston after the February 1895 snowstorm. It did not warm up a lot for the rest of the month. Houston temperatures are not available. The Gulf seabreeze may have kept Galveston cooler; San Antonio reached mid and upper 70s several times.

Feb 15 20/32
Feb 16 24/46
Feb 17 36/46
Feb 18 40/52
Feb 19 40/52
Feb 20 43/64
Feb 21 54/64
Feb 22 50/50 (questionable but that's what it says)
Feb 23 46/50
Feb 24 48/60
Feb 25 52/58
Feb 26 52/58 Yes it repeats, but that's what the reports say.
Feb 27 54/64
Feb 28 42/64
Quoting 295. pureet1948:




Then the graphic I just posted at post #293 falls into the UNRELIABLE category? (Hope so!)


Yes, very much so. This is something myself and others have been repeatedly telling you. Or you can go back to your various posts and see how many of your proclamations of disaster have actually come to pass.

Keep in mind models are TOOLS. Meteorologists use the results of models to help them make better predictions. The models are not and should not be interpreted as the end-all be-all of weather prediction. Hence why when major events are in the making, the people on here will tell you to listen to your local meteorologists. They are the trained experts in the field. They know your area/region. They have the experience and knowledge to combine the data coming from the observations, topography, models, etc. to formulate a forecast and warnings that are relevant to your area. And they certainly have access to a lot more data and resources than you do.

And yes, sometimes they get it wrong to. Nobody is perfect, and when it comes to predicting a system where you never have "perfect" information the likelihood of a missed predictions is definitely non-zero. But they are far less likely to make a mistake than you, me, and probably most others on here.

Generally, if it isn't 5 days or less away then it's just an interesting possibility. If it's more than 10 days out it's fantasy.
Quoting 318. SuzK:



It may be, Hydrus, that for the upper latitude I lived in (Detroit), 40,000+ was high? I remember our weather man, Jerry Hodak, exclaiming in disbelief at cloud heights at 40,000+ in the 1990's. I'd already been anticipating the CO2 warming for 20 years then, as I had read many reports on the expectations for the global future in college in the 70's. These are not hurricane/cyclones Im referring to, which I know to be in a different category than a supercell storm on land. Thanks for your input!


We see 50k+ boomers regularly in Tennessee during spring and summer. Big storms, visible from a great distance. I wonder how accurate Intellicast's maps are for thunderstorm height, I've seen a couple 65's on its map before.
Quoting 301. BayFog:


Besides, there are other offsets. Warmer moist air will release heat all the way up the air column as clouds condense, so not all the heat is making it up to the top where it can radiate out into space. It's actually adding to the heat trapped in the lower levels. And air that is cooled at the top is thereby made denser and will sink back down, heating by compression. Meanwhile, the troposphere as a whole will be getting a bit thicker as it gets warmer, making the volume in which greenhouse gasses can do their work of trapping heat larger.


Yep, a warming atmosphere has kinds of interesting side effects. Increased water vapor, thicker troposphere, decreased latitudinal temperature differentials, etc. Future storms will certainly be things to behold.
Quoting 260. Seattleite:

I was so focused on the rainfall yesterday, I missed something obvious. I noticed it was warm, as in I went outside without a coat. As it turns out yesterday broke the daily maximum record. Heh.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
523 PM PST WED FEB 17 2016

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 2015.


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT SEATTLE WA WFO...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 2015 AND 2007.


Hour and a half north and we didnt quite make 50°. Nice to see the snow level stayed nice n low around 3500-4000' Mt Baker reportig 8". Rain here last night put us just over 30" for Dec-Feb. There are a lot of micro-climates in Wa, I get twice the rain in Acme (65-85") than someone 15 miles west in Bellingham. Gets a lot colder and warmer also.

Just wanted to add a happy 40th to my wife and best friend Nat. :-)

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/p/p lantmoretrees/27.jpg
Quoting 302. BayFog:


That would have taken the cloud into the stratosphere at that latitude. I suppose that does happen. High-topped t storms are more usual closer to the Equator due to the greater thickness of the troposphere there.


Yeah it's combination of tropospheric depth, lifting mechanism, and instability that determines height. A strong combination of all 3 will produce the tallest convection. Equatorial areas have convergence lows the traverse like MCS complexes in the U.S. in spring in summer, but some area like equatorial Africa and Brazil are estimated to see CAPE higher than 6000 J/KG at times, which is extreme instability. For example, equatorial Africa is even significantly more lightning dense than FL, and many people are killed in those areas every year from lightning. Western Equatorial Africa is known for spectacular complexes of severe thunderstorms that produce violent down burst winds and severe lightning amounts and flash flood cloud bursts. Frequency of cloud to ground lightning has been shown to be a remarkable way of estimating instability and updraft speeds, so thunderstorms with more lightning are taller and have stronger updrafts. These can be seen quite well on satellite in the Summer and Fall as the massive thunderstorm complexes that emerge off of West Central Africa in the Summer and Fall.

I would love to experience thunderstorms in that part of the world during the height of the season. I love intense thunderstorms.
Quoting 166. Jedkins01:



I'm surprised the February average is only 3.53 inches, that's about average for much of Florida in February, and this is the dry season. In most of Florida, rainy season months average 7-10 inches per month for about 4 months or so. Everyone thinks of Seattle as the rainy city of the U.S., but there are other cities in the U.S. like Miami New Orleans, Orlando, New York, that average quite a bit more rainfall. Seattle is somewhat protected from getting the heaviest rains that occur in the Northwest by terrain changes.


Sequim wa, is the driest town west of the cascades with only around 20"/yr. Oddly enough it has one of the coolest summers temps as it sits right on the strait of Juan de Fuca and gets bathed in near constant mist.
Picture is from Dungenous spit (just north of sequim) looking twards the Olympic mts.

Quoting 318. SuzK:



It may be, Hydrus, that for the upper latitude I lived in (Detroit), 40,000 was high? I remember our weather man, Jerry Hodak, exclaiming in disbelief at cloud heights at 40,000 in the 1990's. I'd already been anticipating the CO2 warming for 20 years then, as I had read many reports on the expectations for the global future in college in the 70's. These are not hurricane/cyclones Im referring to, which I know to be in a different category than a supercell storm on land. Thanks for your input!
I need to make a small correction. The 69,000 ft storm was in Florida Bay associated with a Tropical Depression. So it was not actually over the state.
Quoting 326. plantmoretrees:




Those gray jays (aka camp robbers) are pretty bold birds. I've had them land on my mirror when I was sitting there with the window down in a ski area parking lot and had them land on my finger when I offered them a bit of food while out cross country skiing.
330. 882MB
Incredible storm and its appearance. By the way can you call that a textbook type cyclone? Sure looks like one.

Category five cyclone now on the Australian Cyclone Intensity chart. Viti Levu, Fiji is in track of landfall of around 110-115 knots (CAT 5) or close to 130 knots (1 min)

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #36
HURRICANE WARNING
=============================
Northwest of Tonga Islands
East Of Lau Islands and Fiji

A HURRICANE WARNING is in force for Vanuabalavu, Yacata, Mago, Cicia, Tuvuca, Nayau, Koro, Gau, and Vanuavatu

A STORM WARNING is in force for Lakeba, Oneata, Moce, Komo, Namuka, Ogea, Kabara, Moala, Ovalau, Wakaya, southern Vanua Levu, Taveuni, and nearby smaller islands

A GALE WARNING is in force for rest of Fiji Islands


At 18:00 PM FST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Five (930 hPa) located at 17.5S 176.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES enhanced infrared and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Eye well defined. Deep convection remains persistent. Eye warming and cloud tops cooling past 6 hours. Organization remains good. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System lies in low sheared environment. Outflow good to the south. Dvorak analysis based on ow eye surrounded by W in CMG ring with eye adjustment yields DT=6.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 17.5S 178.3W - 115 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 17.7S 179.7E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 18.1S 176.8E - 105 knots (CAT 4)



Lakeba and the large island of Viti Levu (Fiji) in path of Winston.

updating image

Nadi Advance Dvorak Technique for Winston is quite high.

(when this image was posted it read.. 2016FEB19 090000 7.3 914.1 +2.1 149.0 7.2 7.1 7.1)
Quoting 332. HadesGodWyvern:


updating image

Nadi Advance Dvorak Technique for Winston is quite high.

(when this image was posted it read.. 2016FEB19 090000 7.3 914.1 +2.1 149.0 7.2 7.1 7.1)

Small wobble to the north over past hours, it is now north of model track and this is rough on the Fiji main island.
334. elioe
Very bad news about Winston. Thoughts to the islands!

Official site on Facebook of Fijian Government
2 Std. · Suva, Fidschi ·
JUST IN - TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON HAS INTENSIFIED INTO CATEGORY 5, THE HIGHEST RATING THAT CAN BE GIVEN TO THE SEVERITY OF A CYCLONE.
Latest forecasts from Fiji Meteorological Services lay the path of the cyclone directly over Viti Levu and parts of Lomaiviti.
Given the continuous unpredictability of Tropical Cyclone Winston, ALL MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC ACROSS FIJI are strongly advised to be on high alert and make necessary preparations. ...




Unfortunately at present quite a lot of frames with satellite views of Winston didn't update since yesterday. Is something wrong with Himawari?

336. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA went up another 1 %:

57% of Total Capacity.
Couldn't find worse than cat. 4 impacts on Fiji. Winston might become the first full cat. 5 hit on there. Any offers of historical cat. 5's there?
Ouch.

Bet even doc. Masters is impressed.

Winston is pretty close to topping the Dvorak scale.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:53 S Lon : 177:04:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 896.0mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.6 7.9 7.9
Quoting 330. 882MB:

Incredible storm and its appearance. By the way can you call that a textbook type cyclone? Sure looks like one.




Stadium effect taking shape too, wow.

With the lack of reconnaissance I wouldn't be surprised if this is somewhat close to 200mph. Winston has a perfect convection ring not lacking on any side, and it's close to topping the Dvorak scale. Impressive to say the least. I surely hope that Fiji will be spared.
This is more like it.

oh.tavarua
Artic ice heading lower. What impact(s) can we expect on the East Coast regarding this event in the near term?
Good Morning Peeps; on the Conus side for today:



Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 19 2016 - 12Z Sun Feb 21 2016

...Rain and high elevation snow to affect the Pacific Northwest and
northern California...

...High winds expected for portions of the central and northern High
Plains and portions of the Rockies...

...Above average temperatures expected to expand across much of the
central and eastern U.S...


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
And the stats from the JTWC on Winston; the cloud tops continue to cool over the past few hours; amazing




REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
190405Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
15 NM EYE, WITH CLOUD-TOP COOLING OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD, AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS
POLEWARD AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS VWS REMAINS WEAK,
SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 30C, AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FIJI AROUND TAU 36, WITH AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 130 AND 135
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTIONS. AFTER TAU 72, TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS, AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
Humans not as impressed with Winston as ADT:

TXPS41 PHFO 191146
TCSSP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1145 UTC FRI FEB 19 2016

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON

B. 19/1122Z

C. 17.4S

D. 177.4W

E. GOES-15/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE WITH A SUFFICIENTLY LARGE SURROUNDING W SHADE
YIELDS A 6.0 EYE NUMBER. AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 DUE TO A CMG
RING YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT ARE 6.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.

$$

GIBBS

Link



TPPS11 PGTW 191224

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON)

B. 19/1153Z

C. 17.26S

D. 177.50W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW YE SURROUNDED BY W
(+0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE
WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

Link
Just noted the clockwise rotation on Winston as it is in the Southern Hemisphere-South Pacific. So I suppose that the NE Quad is the strong side as opposed to the NW quad in the Northern Hemisphere for most of us.

Here are some of the population stats on the Fiji island group from Wiki: all we can is hope and pray that the storm will not be a potential castastrophe for them (minimal loss of life):

Fiji is an archipelago of more than 332 islands, of which 110 are permanently inhabited, and more than 500 islets, amounting to a total land area of about 18,300 square kilometres (7,100 sq mi). The farthest island is Ono-i-Lau. The two major islands, Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, account for 87% of the population of almost 860,000. The capital and largest city, Suva, is on Viti Levu. About three-quarters of Fijians live on Viti Levu's coasts, either in Suva or in smaller urban centres like Nadi (tourism) or Lautoka (sugar cane industry). Viti Levu's interior is sparsely inhabited due to its terrain.[11]

Fiji has one of the most developed economies in the Pacific due to an abundance of forest, mineral, and fish resources. Today, the main sources of foreign exchange are its tourist industry and sugar exports.[12] The country's currency is the Fijian dollar. Fiji's local government, in the form of city and town councils, is supervised by the Ministry of Local Government and Urban Development.[13]

Quoting 348. weathermanwannabe:

Just noted the clockwise rotation on Winston as it is in the Southern Hemisphere-South Pacific. So I suppose that the NE Quad is the strong side as opposed to the NW quad in the Northern Hemisphere for most of us.




It would depend on the direction of movement. The right front quadrant is the strongest area of a hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere. A good example would be Hurricane Katrina. The N.E. quadrant of Katrina was be the strongest quadrant with the largest storm surge. This is due to the combination of forward speed and wind speed. It's the area of the hurricane where the strongest onshore winds would be found (thus - the largest storm surge).

Southern Hemisphere would be the left front quadrant due to the winds being clockwise.

Quoting 350. Sfloridacat5:



It would depend on the direction of movement. The right front quadrant is the strongest area of a hurricane. A good example would be Hurricane Katrina. The N.E. quadrant would be the strongest quadrant with the largest storm surge.
Based on the Wiki info below, most of the people live on the coast with a big fishing economy; storm surge will be a huge issue for the coastal villages and we all hope and pray that the folks there will be evacuated to higher ground.
Quoting 351. weathermanwannabe:


Based on the Wiki info below, most of the people live on the coast with a big fishing economy; storm surge will be a huge issue for the coastal villages and we all hope and pray that the folks there will be evacuated to higher ground.


Due to Winston's movement to the west the strongest quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere would be the S.W. (left front quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere).


CAT 5 threating Nadji
Quoting 352. Sfloridacat5:



Due to Winston's movement to the west the strongest quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere would be the S.W.


I believe that's correct, they're on the northwest quadrant when the storm moves north-east
Bad news for the Fiji Islands as the SW quad is the one currently plowing over many of the islands in the chain.
Quoting 348. weathermanwannabe:

Just noted the clockwise rotation on Winston as it is in the Southern Hemisphere-South Pacific. So I suppose that the NE Quad is the strong side as opposed to the NW quad in the Northern Hemisphere for most of us.


S.W. quadrant I think. Especially if it is moving west.
Quoting 354. win1gamegiantsplease:



I believe that's correct, they're on the northwest quadrant when the storm moves north-east


It all depends on the direction of movement. In the Northern Hemisphere it's the right front quadrant. In the Southern Hemisphere it's the left front quadrant.
Quoting 356. hydrus:

S.W. quadrant I think. Especially if it is moving west.


Yes, S.W. quad would be the strongest quad in the Southern Hemisphere with a storm moving westerly. The left front quad in the Southern Hemisphere.
Hopefully Dr. Masters or Mr. Henson will resolve the strongest quad issue for us as well as where the worst surge will be; I am still confused looking mostly at North Hemisphere storms all these years .............. :)
Quoting 359. weathermanwannabe:

Hopefully Dr. Masters or Mr. Henson will resolve the strongest quad issue for us.............. :)


Trust us. It's the left front quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere. That would be the S.W. quad with a westerly moving tropical system.
Quoting 356. hydrus:

S.W. quadrant I think. Especially if it is moving west.


Suva's in trouble...
Looks like so far Florida is ok until the first week of march...enjoy the Nice weather..........
The reason the strongest quadrant is the right front (Northern Hemisphere) and left front (Southern Hemisphere) is because you combine the forward movement of the system with its wind speed. So you'll find the strongest winds on this side of the system. This will also be the area where you will see the largest storm surge.
Forecast track has been consistantly shifting to the north and west with Winston... Now forecasted to make landfall along the north coast of Viti at 130 knots.

Still about 24 hours from impact.

CLICK IMAGE TO EXPAND
Quoting 361. Articuno:



Suva's in trouble...


Any deviation north or south could have huge impacts as to whether SUVA gets the brunt of the storm. NADI on the NW coast could also have just as large of impacts if not larger.
Here's a basic lesson on hurricane quadrants.
"For tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, these differences are reversed: the strongest winds are on the left side of the storm. This is because the winds swirl clockwise south of the equator in tropical cyclones."

Link

All depends on the direction the storm is moving. Based on the direction of movement the left front (Southern Hemisphere) and right front (Northern Hemisphere) is the strongest and most dangerous quadrant of a tropical system.
Quoting 358. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, S.W. quad would be the strongest quad in the Southern Hemisphere with a storm moving westerly. The left front quad in the Southern Hemisphere.


It depends:
First I assume the position of the Quadrant according to plane geometry.
Then I assume, that the rotational speed is constant, so this relation applies:
Quoting 363. Sfloridacat5:

The reason the strongest quadrant is the right front (Northern Hemisphere) and left front (Southern Hemisphere) is because you combine the forward movement of the system with its wind speed. So you'll find the strongest winds on this side of the system. This will also be the area where you will see the largest storm surge.

When assuming a movement towards west, there are 3 "main" directions: SW, W and NW
SW: maximum winds are in quadrant IV or SE-quadrant.
W: maximum winds are on the between quadrant III and IV.
NW: maximum winds are in quadrant III or SW-quadrant.
According to current predictions, the storm will hit the Fidjis moving WWS, so the maximum winds will be in the SE-quadrant.
Quoting 355. weathermanwannabe:

Bad news for the Fiji Islands as the SW quad is the one currently plowing over many of the islands in the chain.
Hope they are prepared, and have strong shelters well above ground.
Here are the current global sst's; I think the Fiji Island group is around the bottom right section of this chart; toasty waters:
Quoting 364. ILwthrfan:

Forecast track has been consistantly shifting to the north and west with Winston... Now forecasted to make landfall along the north coast of Viti at 130 knots.

Still about 24 hours from impact.

CLICK IMAGE TO EXPAND



That's got to be the one of the craziest storm tracks ever.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 17:14:47 S Lon : 177:46:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.9 / 887.1mb/167.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.9 8.0 8.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -6.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
In case anyone may have missed it, Carl Mears from RSS provides a nice explanation of why surface records are generally more reliable than the satellite data & sifts through some of the uncertainties w/ both subsets of temperature data.
Link
From NWS/NOAA

"In the northern hemisphere, the highest surge values typically
occur in the right front quadrant of a hurricane coincident
with onshore flow; in the southern hemisphere, the left front
quadrant
."
Link (page 4)
luckily for our friends they live on the western side of fiji near tavarua. the couple has three young= ums with them. unusual cyclone wierd course hope everyone is ready. i expect communication will shut down.
There are also countless coral reefs all around the archipelagos 332 islands, with 110 of those islands inhabited.

CLICK TO EXPAND IMAGE

Quoting 364. ILwthrfan:

Forecast track has been consistantly shifting to the north and west with Winston... Now forecasted to make landfall along the north coast of Viti at 130 knots.

Still about 24 hours from impact.

CLICK IMAGE TO EXPAND

Forgive my ignorance when it comes to storms like this. But what causes it to back track like this? It pushed south and then northeast, stalled, and now is pushing back west.
Quoting 373. Webberweather53:

In case anyone may have missed it, Carl Mears from RSS provides a nice explanation of why surface records are generally more reliable than the satellite data & sifts through some of the uncertainties w/ both subsets of temperature data.
Link


Can't wait for your analysis of our ongoing El Nino after it wraps up, if you do one... Though I am fully expecting you to throw something out eventually. :D!
Warm (for this time of year) and windy in Sioux Falls today. Was getting bounced all over the interstate on my way to work this morning. Local storm report has already recorded gusts of 51 and 56 mph in the area, while further west there was a gust of 70 mph. Would not want to be a semi driver around here today.

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a High
Wind Warning... which is in effect until noon CST today. A Wind
Advisory has also been issued. This Wind Advisory is in effect
from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening.

* Timing... the strongest winds are expected to be through late
this morning. Winds will slowly decrease through this afternoon.

* Weather conditions... westerly winds are expected to be 30 to 45
mph gusting to 60 mph this morning. The winds will gradually
decrease 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Use extreme caution on
north to south roads as the west winds will hit very fast early
today... take special caution on Interstate 29 if traveling at
higher rates of speed.
Models and Mets still having a tough time with low initiation, but the cold and wet weather is a good bet for the eastern third of the U.S....WPC long range...



..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTAIN MODEST TEMPERATURES
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MOST DOMINANT SIGNAL IS THE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WHICH WILL CARRY HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE EAST...THE PASSAGE
OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD ENSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO
10 DEGREE RANGE.

HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN MOST MODELS
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. AND UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIGGEST WILD
CARD DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
INITIALLY BUT BEGIN TO EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
24/0000Z. SOME RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...WPC MEDIUM RANGE SNOW/SLEET PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE BEST
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN 24/0000Z AND 26/0000Z.
LOOKING TO THE WESTERN U.S...LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN.



RUBIN-OSTER

Quoting 360. Sfloridacat5:



Trust us. It's the left front quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere. That would be the S.W. quad with a westerly moving tropical system.
LOL. I've been reading back a little on the blog. Southern hemisphere storms can be confusing to us Northerners. It is the left hand quadrant that will carry the highest winds and storm surge. On its projected path, Winston will cause the most damage on Viti Levu. The people in Fiji have long experience dealing with cyclones. There are shelters in urban areas, and the relatively small population along the coast will self-evacuate to the hills that are close to the coast in all parts of the island. I'm not overly concerned with casualties, although I'm sure there will be some given the strength of the storm. The biggest hit will be to the tourist infrastructure. Fiji's economy is just now starting recover from a series of coups and civil unrest. How badly the resorts and sailing destinations are damaged is going to be a huge problem. Fiji's major international airport is located near Nadi, and any major damage to it will shut off tourism until it's repaired.
The thing about Winston is that it was kinda sudden considering not less than 48 hours ago,it was forecasted to go south of the islands as a cat 2. Now its an annular cat 5 heading straight for the main island. Quite unlike Pam which was forecasted almost a week out
One link from New Zealand news with some info (did not not post a Fiji news link because some of the other news items in terms of some crimes and other issues was almost as disturbing as the storm news): the comment below echoes the concern below and to the warning time for Pam:


Fiji's National Disaster Management Office had urged people to secure their homes, properties, businesses or livestock, and be prepared to evacuate.

At a news conference in Suva on Friday, the director of national disaster management, Akapusi Tuifagalele, said the cyclone could bring widespread destruction, comparing it to cyclone Pam which devastated much of Vanuatu in March 2015.

"We should not be complacent," he said. "It's high time if there are people who are still not prepared, this is the time to be prepared."

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-ne ws/296972/cyclone-winston-now-a-category-5,-headin g-straight-for-fiji

Quoting 357. Sfloridacat5:



It all depends on the direction of movement. In the Northern Hemisphere it's the right front quadrant. In the Southern Hemisphere it's the left front quadrant.



And storms like Lenny moving east had a nasty southern eye wall here in the NoHem

Quoting 376. ILwthrfan:

There are also countless coral reefs all around the archipelagos 332 islands, with 110 of those islands inhabited.

CLICK TO EXPAND IMAGE


The coral reefs of Fiji are amazing, and one of the chief tourist attractions. I was there in 2000, and the Yasawa Island to the west of Viti Levu is one of the main areas of interest to sailors and divers. Unfortunately, it looks like the Yasawa group is going to take a hit from Winston, how badly we'll find out in a couple of days.
If there's any good news Winston is a small storm so the surge could be lower (like Charley) but the winds could cause the greatest impact.
It looks like the blog is broken again.
Quoting 383. Geoboy645:

The thing about Winston is that it was kinda sudden considering not less than 48 hours ago,it was forecasted to go south of the islands as a cat 2. Now its an annular cat 5 heading straight for the main island. Quite unlike Pam which was forecasted almost a week out
Does remind of Juaquin, one of the most bazaar paths in all the years I have tracked Atlantic hurricanes. The only path that is remotely as weird as Juaqiun was 1966's Hurricane Inez..It drove forecasters crazy.

393. bwi
Quoting 379. ILwthrfan:



Can't wait for your analysis of our ongoing El Nino after it wraps up, if you do one... Though I am fully expecting you to throw something out eventually. :D!


Thanks, lol yeah I'm currently in the process of working on an ensemble based Oceanic Nino Index which will officially become the longest running real-time observationally-based ENSO index to date (eclipsing JMA SST Index by 3 years) & will comprise a small, yet significant portion of a new MEI index that I'm beginning to draft. I'm hoping I can finish & release a preliminary version of this index within the next several weeks.

This is a rough draft of an abstract I put together a little while ago which outlines the overall scope & significance of this project...
"The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest coupled ocean-atmospheric component of intraseasonal to interannual variability on the globe. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is usually defined as the leading principle component of 6 ocean-atmospheric variables (Sea Surface Temperature, Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure, near surface meridional & zonal wind, and cloudiness) in the CODAS dataset over the tropical Pacific. However, this index is intended to be a major improvement upon the Bivariate ENSO Timeseries (BEST) and the Extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.ext), which to date, remain the only ENSO indices with multiple components that pre date the early-mid 20th century. This new ENSO index employs an ensemble-based integration of the two strongest components of the MEI, (SST & SLP) across multiple regions of the tropical Pacific. (NINO 3.4 (5S-5N, 170-120W), Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, Dateline-90W), & Cold Tongue (10S-10N, 180-90W) SSTs, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Cold Tongue Equatorial Pacific MSLP (10S-10N 180-90W), and Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQ-SOI) (5N-5S, 80-135W vs 5N-5S 80-130E)). The utilization of sliding base periods to account for background observational and climatic inhomogeneities and plethora of available SST and SLP datasets appreciably increases the confidence, stability, internal coherence, and statistical significance of this ENSO Index compared to its predecessors (BEST & MEI.ext). The ENS-MEI confirms previous findings that ENSO variability was much higher near the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries with a relative lull in the mid 20th century and exhibits similar timing, duration, and amplitude with most ENSO events. The ENS-MEI attempts to maximize both longevity & data assimilation over the entire 165 year instrumental record, as well as be available for real-time scrutiny. The creation of the ENS-MEI was largely motivated by the unusually strong & prolonged 2014-16 El Nino, initialization for global climate models, climate risk assessment, as well as attempting to assess the elusive role GHGs potentially play in ENSO variability."
Now a recorded gust of 75 mph about 70 miles west of me with stations across the state recording gusts of 50-60+. Anytime we get winds this high I always think of this picture from I-90 a couple years ago.



Winds were so high these truckers had parked because it was too dangerous to keep driving, but it didn't matter as the wind knocked them over anyway.
"Looks like so far Florida is ok until the first week of march"

Just in time to ruin the weather for Bike Week in Daytona. This happens often.
Quoting 390. washingtonian115:

If there's any good news Winston is a small storm so the surge could be lower (like Charley) but the winds could cause the greatest impact.


One of the reasons Charley's storm surge wasn't huge (still around 9 ft. on North Captiva) was because Charley didn't intensify into a CAT4 until it was close to making landfall and (very important) Charley didn't spend very much time over the GOM. Charley moved at over 20 mph from Cuba to S.W. Florida and that didn't give it a lot of time to build a large storm surge.

But as you mentioned, Charley was a smaller system and that also played a part.
Quoting 384. Grothar:


Greetings Gro...Funny how the symbols are spinning counterclockwise...or maybe its time for my new glasses..:)
I know, wonder if they will evacuate the resort???

Quoting 343. islander101010:

oh.tavarua

Free at last! Free at last!

Not that it has any relevance to the blog post about record high worldwide January temperatures, but this has been the coolest winter I have seen in my 20+ years here in CME. Lows in the low to mid 60s and highs only in the 70s for weeks on end. Unheard of. Usually temperatures like that last for a few days to maybe a week at a time, not months. El niño perhaps?
Quoting 329. riverat544:


Those gray jays (aka camp robbers) are pretty bold birds. I've had them land on my mirror when I was sitting there with the window down in a ski area parking lot and had them land on my finger when I offered them a bit of food while out cross country skiing.


Those suckers consistently robbed or tried to rob our food from the picnic table over and over while camping in Denali park.
Quoting 380. LuckySD:

Warm (for this time of year) and windy in Sioux Falls today. Was getting bounced all over the interstate on my way to work this morning. Local storm report has already recorded gusts of 51 and 56 mph in the area, while further west there was a gust of 70 mph. Would not want to be a semi driver around here today.

(snip)

Same here, west of Chitown. Winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60! I was going to take advantage of the outdoor temps to do some work, but with the wind, it may not be possible. I tried to pick-up a 14 ft. long board, to put it on the saw horses, and it blew out of my hands. The ground is very muddy. Temps are in the fifties now, with a high forecast of 64°, which in mid-February is very rare indeed. I would like to include some pictures, but the wind doesn't show-up very well on photographs. :-p
Quoting 401. LouisPasteur:

Free at last! Free at last!

Not that it has any relevance to the blog post about record high worldwide January temperatures, but this has been the coolest winter I have seen in my 20+ years here in CME. Lows in the low to mid 60s and highs only in the 70s for weeks on end. Unheard of. Usually temperatures like that last for a few days to maybe a week at a time, not months. El niño perhaps?


Where is CME?
wow this storm is pulling a Hurricane Patricia what time i saw # this high was with Hurricane Patricia



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 17:21:10 S Lon : 178:02:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 883.7mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.3 8.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Quoting 362. LargoFl:

Looks like so far Florida is ok until the first week of march...enjoy the Nice weather..........


What? According to our Florida forecaster, Fl was in for a major tornado outbreak on Tuesday?
Cyclone WINSTON


https://youtu.be/nrX9OYFkIbA
Quoting 404. georgevandenberghe:



Where is CME?


Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche, México
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-201145-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
535 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$
Quoting 406. luvtogolf:



What? According to our Florida forecaster, Fl was in for a major tornado outbreak on Tuesday?
anyone else find this Blog is really slow loading?
412. MahFL
Quoting 411. LargoFl:

anyone else find this Blog is really slow loading?


Not me.
It s a pity we don t know how strong Winston really is, unlike Atlantic hurricanes we can t be really sure. JTWC and their estimations can t really be trusted, as well as their forecasts, If at least their forecasts could be trusted then Winston would have long since recurving south to sea. JTWC has royally botched forecast on Winston, one of their very worst forecasts I have seen.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Cant be trusted?

Thats not how it works.

Thats not how any of this works.

Quoting 377. LuckySD:

Forgive my ignorance when it comes to storms like this. But what causes it to back track like this? It pushed south and then northeast, stalled, and now is pushing back west.


It really wants to go to Florida. Countdown to doom has begun for the great Sunshine state. Surely, this season will end the drought. Climate strikeback has begun. Watch out Tampa/St. Pete.
Quoting 397. Sfloridacat5:



One of the reasons Charley's storm surge wasn't huge (still around 9 ft. on North Captiva) was because Charley didn't intensify into a CAT4 until it was close to making landfall and (very important) Charley didn't spend very much time over the GOM. Charley moved at over 20 mph from Cuba to S.W. Florida and that didn't give it a lot of time to build a large storm surge.

But as you mentioned, Charley was a smaller system and that also played a part.


It is the speed and duration that count the most though. Large systems will produce large surge over a larger area in the same way they do so with winds, which intuitively makes sense. However, small violent hurricanes are absolutely capable of producing destructive surge events. Hurricane Camille produced one of the worse surge events in U.S. history, and it was a tiny Charley or Andrew sized hurricane. But it wasn't moving as quick, and spent a lot time in the gulf.

Also, Typhoon Haiyan was also a small, tight system, and it has produced the most severe surge that I'm aware of in modern history. Storm Chasers a good bit inland at an elevation over 20 ft still experienced incredible high and fast moving surge, and coastal areas were wiped out by a surge event that was more like a massive tsunami.

There are actually man other factors that determine the destructive potential for surge, such as wind vector angles relative to the coast, duration of surge trajectories relative to the coast, ocean depth, angle of making landfall, and also streamline flow around a TC. That's a reason storm surge models exist, since storm surge is from from being a simple function of the wind intensity as the old saffir-simpson scale has.

It's also worth mentioning that more violent systems have surge that moves at a faster speed and has greater destructive force behind it. Haiyan's surge that behaved more like a tsunami is a good example. And look at Charley, though it's surge wasn't very tall, it completely destroyed portions of captiva island. If Charley had more time over water, and the eye passed over Pinellas County with the eastern eyewall over Tampa Bay/Tampa, the surge would likely have been terrible, especially since Charley was in an RI phase, and was likely going to be a category 5 hurricane if it had continued towards Tampa.
418. vis0

Quoting 394. Webberweather53:



Thanks, lol yeah I'm currently in the process of working on an ensemble based Oceanic Nino Index which will officially become the longest running real-time observationally-based ENSO index to date (eclipsing JMA SST Index by 3 years) & will comprise a small, yet significant portion of a new MEI index that I'm beginning to draft. I'm hoping I can finish & release a preliminary version of this index within the next several weeks.

This is a rough draft of an abstract I put together a little while ago which outlines the overall scope & significance of this project...
"The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest coupled ocean-atmospheric component of intraseasonal to interannual variability on the globe. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is usually defined as the leading principle component of 6 ocean-atmospheric variables (Sea Surface Temperature, Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure, near surface meridional & zonal wind, and cloudiness) in the CODAS dataset over the tropical Pacific. However, this index is intended to be a major improvement upon the Bivariate ENSO Timeseries (BEST) and the Extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.ext), which to date, remain the only ENSO indices with multiple components that pre date the early-mid 20th century. This new ENSO index employs an ensemble-based integration of the two strongest components of the MEI, (SST & SLP) across multiple regions of the tropical Pacific. (NINO 3.4 (5S-5N, 170-120W), Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, Dateline-90W), & Cold Tongue (10S-10N, 180-90W) SSTs, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Cold Tongue Equatorial Pacific MSLP (10S-10N 180-90W), and Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQ-SOI) (5N-5S, 80-135W vs 5N-5S 80-130E)). The utilization of sliding base periods to account for background observational and climatic inhomogeneities and plethora of available SST and SLP datasets appreciably increases the confidence, stability, internal coherence, and statistical significance of this ENSO Index compared to its predecessors (BEST & MEI.ext). The ENS-MEI confirms previous findings that ENSO variability was much higher near the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries with a relative lull in the mid 20th century and exhibits similar timing, duration, and amplitude with most ENSO events. The ENS-MEI attempts to maximize both longevity & data assimilation over the entire 165 year instrumental record, as well as be available for real-time scrutiny. The creation of the ENS-MEI was largely motivated by the unusually strong & prolonged 2014-16 El Nino, initialization for global climate models, climate risk assessment, as well as attempting to assess the elusive role GHGs potentially play in ENSO variability."
Don't forget to get some SOLID rest (good sleep), i just had to take a small rest as to not overheat the brain after reading your comment, ...also can't wait till the NYTIMEs/Webber holiday guest edition crossword puzzles come out.

As to Pac 2016 Winston - any upwelling of cooler waters might not matter as much, since  there is much warmth to tap into at other "levels".