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Springlike Warmth in Southwest U.S., Southeast Europe; Sierra Snowpack Below Average

By: Bob Henson 7:17 PM GMT on February 16, 2016

Some of the warmest temperatures on record for this early in the year are enveloping large parts of the southwestern United States and southeast Europe this week. The mildness will work its way across the U.S. as the week unfolds, displacing a stormy pattern that’s brought ice and snow to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast and severe weather along the Gulf Coast. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center logged at least 20 preliminary tornado reports on Monday, mainly from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with several injuries reported and several dozen homes, businesses and schools damaged or destroyed. More twisters were reported early Tuesday morning across southern Florida and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. One or more apparent tornadoes inflicted widespread damage to cars and trees across the highly populated area between Miami and Fort Lauderdale at rush hour Tuesday morning. A roundup on weather.com has more on the Monday and Tuesday twisters. The Gulf Coast states are highly prone to severe weather during El Niño, with Florida having double its usual winter risk of tornadoes.


FIgure 1. A mobile home that also served as a day care facility in rural Lincoln County, Miss., was destroyed by a suspected tornado on Monday, Feb. 15, 2016, as severe weather affected south Mississippi. Minor injuries were reported to the adults and children inside. Image credit: The Daily Leader, via AP.


Figure 2. A stormy sunset painted the skies over Ponchatoula, LA, on Mon., Feb. 15, 2016, as heavy thunderstorms moved out of southeast Louisiana. Image credit: wunderphotographer llpj04.


Figure 3. WU observations show the pockets of cold air still trapped in parts of eastern Massachusetts while much milder air was moving in at noon EST Tues., Feb. 16, 2016.


New England says farewell to Arctic air
As quickly as it arrived, the record-cracking Arctic air mass that invaded the northeast U.S. this past weekend is heading out. Temperatures were jumping dramatically on Tuesday as a strong warm front moved north into New England. Below-freezing air was trapped in some river valleys, with readings soaring above 50°F close by. The past day’s patchwork of snow, sleet, freezing drizzle, and freezing rain over eastern New York and New England will be washed away by heavy rain, with widespread 1-2” totals expected.

Despite the ferocity of the Valentine’s Day cold outbreak, temperatures are still above average for the month of February across most of New England and New York (see Figure 4 below). A study in local contrasts: last year Worcester, MA, saw its coldest February in more than a century of record-keeping, yet no daily record lows were set. This past Sunday was the coldest morning Worcester has seen in almost 60 years, with a daily record low of -16°F, and yet the city has a good shot at ending up warmer than average for this February as a whole.

Even with the record lows from Saturday and Sunday taken into account, the year to date has produced more than six times as many daily record highs as daily record lows across the contiguous U.S. (2071 to 335), according to NOAA.


Figure 4. Departures from average temperature (°F), generated from preliminary data for the period Feb. 1 - 15, 2016. Image credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center.


Figure 5. Snow water equivalent (the amount of water held in snowpack) in California’s Sierra Nevada on Tues., Feb. 16, 2016, as a percentage of the average amount observed by April 1 (left values) and by this point in the winter (right values). Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

Sierra snowpack drops below seasonal average
An unsettling threshold has been crossed in California. After a promising start to the water year, the total amount of water held in snowpack across all three sections of the Sierra Nevada has dropped below the seasonal average (see Figure 5). This number should jump back above average later this week, as a moderately strong Pacific storm moves across California. During the two other El Niños since 1950 as strong as the current one (1982-83 and 1997-98), the Sierra snowpack ended up well above average. However, weaker El Niños have sometimes produced below-average seasonal snowfall. In a typical year, more than 35% of the Sierra snowpack arrives after mid-February, so there is still time for this El Niño to come through. Runoff from the Sierra snowpack produces about 30% of California’s water supply in a typical year.

It’s been an especially dry February thus far in California’s major cities, where moisture for the water year to date (October 1 - present) was running below average across the board as of Monday. This week’s storminess is unlikely to push these values back above average, and long-range models suggest that another warm, dry period in store for next week. The next four to six weeks will be critical in bringing much-needed moisture to Southern California, as precipitation typically tails off rapidly in April. As shown below, Portland and Seattle have been dramatically wetter than California cities relative to the water-year average--in startling contrast to the prototypical El Niño pattern.

San Diego: 6.06” (water year average to date = 6.24”)
Los Angeles Downtown: 4.20” (average 9.10”)
San Francisco Downtown: 13.70” (average 15.77”)
Sacramento: 8.92” (average 11.79”)
Portland, OR: 32.33” (average 20.98”)
Seattle, WA: 35.37” (average 22.91”)


Figure 6. Percent of normal precipitation for the period Feb. 1 - 15, 2016. Image credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

Here comes the warm
The mild, dry air mass about to sweep from California across the United States began generating record highs on Monday in downtown Los Angeles (89°F, breaking 88°F from 1985) and San Francisco (77°F, beating 76°F from 1930). A clutch of more impressive records is likely on Tuesday across most of California, and Phoenix may hit 90°F on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The earliest 90°F ever observed in Phoenix was on February 24, 1904. Swarms of record highs can be expected on Wednesday and Thursday as the air mass invades the central U.S., with 70°F air as far north as Nebraska and readings topping 80°F from parts of Kansas southward.

Unseasonable mildness over southeast Europe
Another relatively hot pocket this week is in Europe, where torrid southerly winds from Africa brought temperatures more typical of spring or even summer across eastern Mediterranean islands through the Balkans and beyond. On Monday, the city of Chania on the island of Crete reached a high of 29.2°C (84.6°F)--about the same as a typical day in August. The capital city of Albania, Tirana, reached 25.3°C (77.5°F), and Macedonia’s capital, Skopje (located near the latitude of Boston) reached 24.6°C (76.2°F), close to its monthly record for February. Even parts of eastern Ukraine topped 65°F, approaching 30°F above average. Thanks go to Maximiliano Herrera and Michael Theusner for these data.

Jeff Masters will be back on Wednesday with a full report on January’s global climate.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. High temperatures across Europe for Mon. Feb. 15, 2016. Image credit: OGIMET, courtesy Michael Theusner, Klimahaus Bremerhaven.

Extreme Weather El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Quoting 237. Drakoen:

Not sure how I feel about being in the jackpot 7 days out but the signal is there, AO going negative and PNA positive. We have many model runs to go before the final solution.

The Canadian along with its ensembles,the GFS ensembles and parallel have it as well.The storm shows up nicely on the Euro ensembles and parallel too.A storm will most likely be present but as to specifically where is the question.
Thanks Mr. Henson!
A 4 to 5 week period of sustained Westerly Wind anomalies across the Pacific is beginning to give the CFSv2 some credence. This in my opinion is critical to the forecast being predicted by the CFSv2. What is being forecast to happen is another OKW to develop near the Dateline over the coming weeks as a result of these persistent Westerly Wind Anomalies going forward.


Ian Livington @islivingston 51m
Winter finale window trying to show up in long range. Another try at good blocking early-mid March?
just in time for the update I see thanks

been shoveling all day just came in for quick break

about 8 to 10 cms here coming to an end now
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:


Quoting 237. Drakoen:

Not sure how I feel about being in the jackpot 7 days out but the signal is there, AO going negative and PNA positive. We have many model runs to go before the final solution.

The Canadian along with its ensembles,the GFS ensembles and parallel have it as well.The storm shows up nicely on the Euro ensembles and parallel too.A storm will most likely be present but as to specifically where is the question.


So long as my flight to Italy isn't disrupted the following week, I'd happily take another 25"+ of snow.
Thanks Mr. Henson, I actually had some friends call me about the south Florida twisters and bad weather early this morning.
From the previous blog:

Winston







Storm history

Thanks Mr. Henson...More cold is coming for the eastern third I believe.
when will the warm move out?
Quoting 7. 882MB:

Thanks Bob, I had some friends call me about the south Florida twisters and bad weather early this morning.
From the previous blog:

Winston







Storm history




That system maybe the nail in the coughing for any chance @ La-Nina this year. Also some models are predicting other system to form near the Equator across the W-Pac over the coming weeks prolonging WWB going forward. This is very interesting as the CFSv2 is sticking to its guns and we are beginning to see why now.
Quoting 8. hydrus:

Thanks Mr. Henson...More cold is coming for the eastern third I believe.


Need to be more direct. How about its coming later next week as another storm rides up from the Gulf. Been Johnny on the spot lately so plan to keep the train moving along as usual.
As I commented in the previous article, an ultra anomalously heated arctic likely means a continuation of the patterns that cause drought in California. The arctic is driving the dominant trends here, and since there is no modern record of such extreme arctic anomalies, we are in for some real surprises.

So, it's not el nino versus the north pacific hot blob/rrr, but rather the arctic versus the rest of the northern hemisphere.

Thank You Mr. Henson; here are the highs for today and tomorrow.................Pretty remarkable warmth this year in between the cold spells.

You can almost see whatever snowpack is there melting from the heat on the California-Nevada border....................

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Quoting Bob Henson:

Jeff Masters will be back on Wednesday with a full report on January’s global climate.
And that's going to be a good one. A hint:

To those SOI fans out there it seems as if some -50 to -60 daily numbers are coming. This tropical system currently east of Australia is expected to really deepen as pressures rise even further across Australia. Its this type of set up that is expected to continue for weeks to come and could prolong El-Nino into Fall.

Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just in time for the update I see thanks

been shoveling all day just came in for quick break

about 8 to 10 cms here coming to an end now

Had to break out my boots for the first time this winter.
double post - slow server?
Sorry for the double post.
Quoting 8. hydrus:

Thanks Mr. Henson...More cold is coming for the eastern third I believe.
o yeah we are still waiting on the kick in the pants the one last hurrah of winter too spring push
Quoting 17. VibrantPlanet:

As I commented in the previous article, an ultra anomalously heated arctic likely means a continuation of the patterns that cause drought in California. The arctic is driving the dominant trends here, and since there is no modern record of such extreme arctic anomalies, we are in for some real surprises.

So, it's not el nino versus the north pacific hot blob/rrr, but rather the arctic versus the rest of the northern hemisphere.


faster and faster
Thanks for the Updates Mr. Henson....
Here is this next Kelvin Wave surfacing in August then look what happens come November. Yikes! Back to Back Strong Nino?

August


November
Forecast for Peak of Hurricane Season from the CFS.

The la-Nina folks remember when you get mad because the La-Nina isn't verifying please take out your frustrations on what is happening now East of Australia as this latest Cyclone is key IMO to the CFS being right.
16.5 inches of Snow in Rochester NY.
Waiting for confirmation of the tornado in Miramar, Florida this morning. Also, a tornado was reported in Collier County.

If anyone missed the link in the blog earlier this morning to the local news twitter page, you should check it out because it shows surveillance footage of the rotation passing by the location.
Link
Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:

Here is this next Kelvin Wave surfacing in August then look what happens come November. Yikes! Back to Back Strong Nino?

August


November

Scott, don't you think it is too far out, fantasy land, to get into these kinds of specifics? With that said, I went and looked at the current WWB activity in the west pacific. Wow impressve, let's see how it develops or continues.



Keep in mind that these WWBs also cause the upwelling that grows and intensifies the cold pool which eventually expresses itself as a more La Nina state.
Quoting 27. VibrantPlanet:


Scott, don't you think it is too far out, fantasy land, to get into these kinds of specifics? With that said, I went and looked at the current WWB activity in the west pacific. Wow impressve, let's see how it develops or continues.



Keep in mind that these WWBs also cause the upwelling that grows and intensifies the cold pool which eventually expresses itself as a more La Nina state.


Yeah upwelling there but causes downwelling further east. This set up is looking interesting remember 2014 when models went banana's for El-Nino but WWB weren't sustained. This year like last year we are seeing forecasts going forward for sustained WWB. Very interesting to see this.
Also showing WWB but still has a La nina.


Where is the heat content for another strong El nino?

Temps in NYC were in single digits just days ago, and then had severe squall line plow thru within the past hour. According to Reed Timmer there was severe thunderstorm warning for it.

A 4 to 5 week period of sustained Westerly Wind anomalies will have significant impacts on ENSO forecast later this Spring into Summer. During this time of year it is critical if we were to go to La-Nina that we not see these type of anomalies going forward. Its as if these wind forecast across Pacific are going to put a big damper into some of these La-Nina forecast.
Quoting 14. Neapolitan:

And that's going to be a good one. A hint:




You had to spoil the good doctors news:)
Quoting 29. Gearsts:

Also showing WWB but still has a La nina.


Where is the heat content for another strong El nino?




Another strong will one is pushing it but a weak El-Nino could be possible this Fall as another OKW is forecast to form west of the Dateline come March.
Horrible news for California. This super duper El Niño is a big disappointment for them. What's troublesome is what happens over the next xx years until the next El Niño.
Quoting 12. VibrantPlanet:




I had the "honor" of being in almost the most anomalously cold spot during January. Brrrr... didn't like it at all. -20 C or colder in Southern Finland for much of the month. I would have rather had that maximum anomaly (12.9C), I wonder where it was, I guess somewhere near Svalbard? I eagerly wait for Dr. Masters' Wednesday post.

On other news, latest model runs have come into agreement that Winston will not hit Viti Levu. Tongatapu might not be so fortunate.
Quoting 29. Gearsts:

Where is the heat content for another strong El nino?



Herein lies the crux. Where is the heat going to come from? Because if we look solely at the upper ocean along the equator, it doesn't seem to be there. However, one needs to consider that the ocean can absorb extra heat from atmospheric forcing, and there are currents and pacific spanning swaths of ocean heat, north and south of ENSO regions, that play a vital role when considering the available ocean heat content. With it being positive PDO it will be interesting to see how things pan out. Overall, there definitely is more ocean heat content in the Pacific than 20 years ago.
As the storm is quickly pulling away the winds have picked up substantially.I hear a few things being knocked around outside.
38. vis0

Quoting 3. StormTrackerScott:

A 4 to 5 week period of sustained Westerly Wind anomalies across the Pacific is beginning to give the CFSv2 some credence. This in my opinion is critical to the forecast being predicted by the CFSv2. What is being forecast to happen is another OKW to develop near the Dateline over the coming weeks as a result of these persistent Westerly Wind Anomalies going forward.


NOT TAKING in the Spring error rate, in the graphics (above) i interpret it as Low::2 to  Mod::1 El Nino or a slower break up of El Nino.

Yet the cooler pooling leans towards La Nina but its only  towards Western ENSO~3.  

i wonder if some sort of artificial man influenced warming is not keeping El Nino on life support through the early summer, if so will the Atlantic react as if its (nino)  not there being its (human added warmth) not a "natural pattern".  Almost as a rising warmth therefore not affect the Atlantic as opposed to a horizontally (W to E) moving wamth, in which the latter would present its energy as sheer in the Atlantic.
Euro EPS.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

As the storm is quickly pulling away the winds have picked up substantially.I hear a few things being knocked around outside.


Pretty darn violent storm today in Dade. Couple of tornados touched down. Luckily was in south Dade and it was just a very windy and rainy storm to drive through, but one that you couldn't see the end of your trunk lid for a few minutes.
Quoting 40. Dakster:



Pretty darn violent storm today in Dade. Couple of tornados touched down. Luckily was in south Dade and it was just a very windy and rainy storm to drive through, but one that you couldn't see the end of your trunk lid for a few minutes.

With the stormy pattern continuing after this brief break I don't think that will be the last time you see that this season.
Quoting 32. Bucsboltsfan:



You had to spoil the good doctors news:)
Oh, there's lots more he'll be able to discuss. ;-)
Good evening, and thanks to Bob for the bag with the mixed weather news! Saw some tornado videos from Florida in European blogs and in youtube - impressive. But I guess they've been already posted in here earlier. - Moreover, bad news for California - hope they'll get another flush of rain (and snow) later!
And thanks for the glimpse to European weather - spares me producing maps of the remarkable contrast of temperatures between West (cold) and South-East (warm).



Europe's airmass display really shows it candy-striped right now with the cold (red) and dry swath of the jetstream racing south (I had been under it today, experiencing a bright but quite cold day mid Germany) and warm and humid air (green) around it (yes, more rain for poor Scotland ...). In the central and eastern Mediterranean there are typical sirocco conditions right now: hot winds from the Sahara blowing north, towing a lot of SAL (Saharan Air Layer). Here a video of today's sky in Roccalumera/north-eastern Sicily.


Today's SAL map with a lot of dust over central and eastern Mediterranean and further north, where record warm temperatures ocurred the last days. Source.

Meanwhile northwestern Africa enjoys some white stuff on their soil. Here a video from today form Setif/Algeria. The cover photo probably isn't from Algeria though ;-)




Current IR-loop (saved)


Current meandering jetstream, diving deep into the northwestern Sahara. Source.
44. vis0

Quoting 12. VibrantPlanet:

As I commented in the previous article, an ultra anomalously heated arctic likely means a continuation of the patterns that cause drought in California. The arctic is driving the dominant trends here, and since there is no modern record of such extreme arctic anomalies, we are in for some real surprises.

So, it's not el nino versus the north pacific hot blob/rrr, but rather the arctic versus the rest of the northern hemisphere.


Agree, but in this manner.

For NOW its the Arctic versus the RRRr in the Pacific (60%) and the southern GoMx  RRRr (30%)  sending its southern flow towards ENSO-east.(10% other things)

As we go forward one can include the Atlantic RRRr near the Mid to Eastern Atlantic.

In 30 years all 4 RRRr will be as you state,  the Northern Hemisphere versus the (sub tropical) Arctic.

a palm tree on an ice flow?
Kind of humorous till one thinks of how that means humanity is going to go through lots of undesirable changes as people will not have nature maintain a constant mean to allow animals to thrive in specific habitats but nature will maintain a constant change causing animals (uh humans too) to constantly have to move towards a desirable climat which in time becomes a smaller and smaller area...
How do we fit Mexico USofA into Canada?. 
How do we fit China, India, Europe into Scotland, Finland, Denmark, Greenland and Northern Russia?
Northern South America heads to Argentina & Chile.
Can we fit Australia onto Tazmania...
and apologies but i'm not including so many Island countries.
And i'm sure these large "movings" will happen peacefully?
Quoting 44. vis0:


Agree, but in this manner.

?

don't come to Canada brrr cold snow igloo's




Here are the SPC storm reports since 6:00 am this morning EST: notice the cluster in Florida (probably the same cell/squall line) 
today Reports Graphic

Quoting 32. Bucsboltsfan:



You had to spoil the good doctors news:)


Note the pile of heat records is due primarily to El Nino and will probably pause for a few years when we go back to a neutral or Nina state. The underlying AGW underneath means if nothing else happens, records including this month's will start being eclipsed again in a few years but there will be a pause between now and then. A PDO reversal would make for a period of slower warming but the decades when it resulted in some actual cooling (50s, 60s early 70s ) are behind us.
Europe launches satellite to help track global warming
Source: Reuters - Tue, 16 Feb 2016 18:02 GMT
FRANKFURT, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Europe launched a satellite on Tuesday that will help predict weather phenomena such as El Nino and track the progress of global warming as part of the multibillion-euro Copernicus Earth observation project.
The Sentinel-3A satellite, part of a system of satellites that is to monitor Earth, blasted off on board a Rockot launcher from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Russia's north-western Arkhangelsk region at 12:57 p.m. EDT (1757 GMT) on Tuesday.
It headed for orbit 815 km (506 miles) above Earth, from where it will collect data on sea surface temperature and height that will contribute to more precise weather forecasts and help forecast the impact of rising temperatures.
"When we speak about global warming we often focus on rising air temperatures, but 90 percent of the energy put out on our planet ends up in the ocean," Volker Liebig, director of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Earth Observation programme, told Reuters ahead of the launch.
Data from Sentinel-3A, which is to work in tandem with another satellite to be sent up in mid-2017, could also help shipping companies chart more efficient routes and may be used to monitor forest fires and oil spills and to forecast crops.
The Copernicus project, for which the European Union and the European Space Agency (ESA) have committed funding of more than 8 billion euros ($9 billion) until 2020, is described by the ESA as the most ambitious Earth observation program to date. ...


Have a nice evening, everybody. I'm sorry that I don't have as much time as usual to contribute to the blog but these weeks there's quite a lot of work to be done in the office, sigh. I'll keep on reading your posts anyway :-)
Rochester got 18inches today, and the city is a mess. 490 is closed, there are abandoned cars all over town, quite a disaster, and suprising to me, I would have though Rochester would be better at dealing with snow.
It should be noted (perhaps while shoveling next week's dump) that DC has reached the 80s in February numerous times with the monthly record being 84F. 90+ has been recorded a few times in March and is very common in April.
For a February like this most recent December look to February 1976.
Quoting 49. Methurricanes:

Rochester got 18inches today, and the city is a mess. 490 is closed, there are abandoned cars all over town, quite a disaster, and suprising to me, I would have though Rochester would be better at dealing with snow.


How well forecast was this? Most of the snow disasters in DC are now unexpected surprises we didn't prepare for.
52. vis0

Quoting 14. Neapolitan:

And that's going to be a good one. A hint:


3NOTES::
1) A preview i've seen of aGW $keptic sites will have their graphs adjusted to include up to 2.0, so when they post the scale it does not look as high of a jump.

2) i hear that the 3 major bloggers that predicted until 3 to 4 years ago that maximum range would fall somewhere near 0.75 C, are now adjusting those graphs error rates to go plus or minus  1.0C instead of just 0.5 which they had for ~8 yrs.  This is without explaining why. (sadly, i bet  some are hoping for a major volcano or some asteroid - not too big-, but just enough to blame the warmth on.)

2) If the globe where not warming why is it we all have to extend the graphs to include higher, thus warmer temperature maximum line?
Thanks for mentioning Seattle in the blog again! It's been a bit weird here. Typically we would expect a drier than normal winter during El Nino, and a wetter than normal winter during La Nina. However, as with many things regarding this particular El Nino, it's doing what it darn well pleases and is throwing expectations out the window....

As if to highlight this oddity; an excerpt from the local Seattle NWS Discussion

CLIMATE...RAINFALL TOTAL AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 3.53 INCHES. THE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS 3.50 INCHES. THE RAINFALL TOTAL FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH 3 AM FEBRUARY 16TH WAS 22.19 INCHES. THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS 22.77 INCHES SET IN THE LA NINA YEAR OF 1998-1999.
FELTON

Mind you I've got rain in the forecast until at least Sunday...
Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:

Here is this next Kelvin Wave surfacing in August then look what happens come November. Yikes! Back to Back Strong Nino?

August


November





will you please stop all ready thats is like 8 to 12 moths down too rd whats talk about some in thats happening now and not some in that going on 8 too 12 moths i say mods why are you mods even allowing this kind of stuff to be posted day after day?
Quoting 51. georgevandenberghe:



How well forecast was this? Most of the snow disasters in DC are now unexpected surprises we didn't prepare for.

the Forecast was probably good about Sunday Afternoon 12-18 inches, although the area got 16-20 inches, its not like it came out of nowhere. the Monroe County Sheriffs Department was patrolling I490 on snowmobiles.
56. vis0

Quoting 34. Bucsboltsfan:

Horrible news for California. This super duper El Niño is a big disappointment for them. What's troublesome is what happens over the next xx years until the next El Niño.
will it be x years of xx years or hey maybe xx months...lets observe.
57. vis0

Quoting 40. Dakster:



Pretty darn violent storm today in Dade. Couple of tornados touched down. Luckily was in south Dade and it was just a very windy and rainy storm to drive through, but one that you couldn't see the end of your trunk lid for a few minutes.
and ya where driving a Volkswagen beetle!? ; - P.

On the serious side (any size) hail over you when the storms hit?
Quoting 34. Bucsboltsfan:

Horrible news for California. This super duper El Nio is a big disappointment for them. What's troublesome is what happens over the next xx years until the next El Nio.

NorCal is doing alright and it isn't over till all the singing stops.....
The storm that passed thru South Florida this morning caused quite a bit of havoc. There are lots of trees down and blocked roads in the Sunny Isles area in particular and in North Miami-Dade in general. There are various reports of tornadoes touching down in Broward and Palm Beach County.
Guys, we haven't passed the spring barrier yet...
Quoting 59. AreadersinceWilma:

The storm that passed thru South Florida this morning caused quite a bit of havoc. There are lots of trees down and blocked roads in the Sunny Isles area in particular and in North Miami-Dade in general. There are various reports of tornadoes touching down in Broward and Palm Beach County.


Link to damage pics and rotation caught of surveillance video.
https://twitter.com/MikeSpearsNBC6 Link
62. vis0

Quoting 43. barbamz:

Good evening, and thanks to Bob for the bag with the mixed weather news! Saw some tornado videos from Florida in European blogs and in youtube - impressive. But I guess they've been already posted in here earlier. - Moreover, bad news for California - hope they'll get another flush of rain (and snow) later!
And thanks for the glimpse to European weather - spares me producing maps of the remarkable contrast of temperatures between West (cold) and South-East (warm).



Europe's airmass display really shows it candy-striped right now with the cold (red) and dry swath of the jetstream racing south (I had been under it today, experiencing a bright but quite cold day mid Germany) and warm and humid air (green) around it (yes, more rain for poor Scotland ...). In the central and eastern Mediterranean there are typical sirocco conditions right now: hot winds from the Sahara blowing north, towing a lot of SAL (Saharan Air Layer). Here a video of today's sky in Roccalumera/north-eastern Sicily.


Today's SAL map with a lot of dust over central and eastern Mediterranean and further north, where record warm temperatures ocurred the last days. Source.

Meanwhile northwestern Africa enjoys some white stuff on their soil. Here a video from today form Setif/Algeria. The cover photo probably isn't from Algeria though ;-)




Current IR-loop (saved)


Current meandering jetstream, diving deep into the northwestern Sahara. Source.
Do they wears masks in Europe when Saharan dusts come by?

i wonder though some plants can use the Saharan dust to thrive (via phosphorus and nitrogen) does it damage European crops (as olive oil) and does the dust bring diseases to plants as it does to the repertory systems of animals?

To me the dust or any air born earth from one type of climate can more than not damage another type of climate as insects or animals that go to a country which is not use to that animal, as certain Beetles from the far East damaging western trees and vice versa if that happens.
18z GFS, it is mostly rain this run, but you can clearly see a storm is there.
Isn't most of what is labeled the Northern Sierra on the map part of the Cascades technically?

And if you remember the viral video of that old man (a herpetologist) trying to capture an alligator and it went completely wrong, there was a tornado right by that location (right off US-70 near Stacy, NC) [Link]
Quoting 10. StormTrackerScott:



That system maybe the nail in the coughing for any chance @ La-Nina this year. Also some models are predicting other system to form near the Equator across the W-Pac over the coming weeks prolonging WWB going forward. This is very interesting as the CFSv2 is sticking to its guns and we are beginning to see why now.


Nail in the coughing?

You might like these [Link]
67. vis0
Quoting 54. Tazmanian:





will you please stop all ready thats is like 8 to 12 moths down too rd whats talk about some in thats happening now and not some in that going on 8 too 12 moths i say mods why are you mods even allowing this kind of stuff to be posted day after day?
1A1F7L3A5C7!, i kid kause its Taz.  Taz did you read my links on similar monitors to the one you were interested in q few weeks ago?  its on my zilly blog pagw 6 search there for yer user name.
Now for the my "no i DID" portion (Dissociative Identity Disorder) ... "how can be vis0 allowed  to post this crap." -visX

WEATHER:: here in NYc i had my opportunity to raise my arms high up and scream while on the temperature roller coaster ride...


lets do it again...
El Nino dust....

2 EF-1 Tornadoes Hit South Florida Tuesday Morning: National Weather Service

"National Weather Service officials said two EF-1 tornadoes hit South Florida Tuesday morning, downing trees and causing damage to homes and vehicles in Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
One tornado touched down in Pompano Beach, while the other landed in northeast Miami-Dade, officials said."

Link

They have added some new angles from the surveillance video of the tornado. At one point you can see lots of debris and palm tree flying through the air. Check out the second video down the page. It has the actual tornado footage.
Quoting 59. AreadersinceWilma:

The storm that passed thru South Florida this morning caused quite a bit of havoc. There are lots of trees down and blocked roads in the Sunny Isles area in particular and in North Miami-Dade in general. There are various reports of tornadoes touching down in Broward and Palm Beach County.


Yeah here's some video footage of damage as well as some of the severe weather taking place, sounds like there may have been a couple tornadoes in addition to a high density of severe thunderstorm wind damage:

Link

Most of the damage seems to be associated with damage from strong straight line winds and lower end tornado damage:

Link

Here's also some great footage from CBS Miami's facebook page of what appears to be an approaching rain wrapped tornado based on the power flashes and what appears to be rotating heavy rainfall around a meso/tornado. After they guy shuts the door, you can really here the strong winds howling. This video requires facebook access to view, so a login is necessary to see this video, but if you have facebook, it's worth it:

Link

Note, this video above was risky and dangerous. There's no way for whoever did this video to tell how strong the tornado was or if it would make a direct strike, this is very dangerous to video record a potential oncoming tornado, never the less, interesting footage. Definitely appears to be a classic FL rain wrapped tornado.


Quoting 63. Climate175:

18z GFS, it is mostly rain this run, but you can clearly see a storm is there.


12z GFS Para was farther east and a big hit for the metro area.
We ended up getting a good soaking of 1.24, some decent lightning and gusty winds, there were reports of some tree limbs down and power outages in there area. Winds were gusty but not too bad locally, I'd estimate about 30-35 mph here. All in all a good thunderstorm, but nothing bad here.
Quoting 71. Drakoen:



12z GFS Para was farther east and a big hit for the metro area.
Well, we are gonna see how things settle soon.
75. vis0
BTW since the $100 bill is used by criminals it might be scraped or replaced, so i nominate to place Grothar on the $99.99  dollar bill plus to add "in Gro we trust.., or bust.   In this manner if you hear a cuple of people arguing to keep more than 3 pennies ya know a     seal    deal went down.

next week ::

WOW! as in Why Obstruct Wisdom, let enjoy guessing the future... i say big LOW retros up the east coast, reGenesis for reformed in ATL is  23rd  thru 25th.
Kinda like when JFV said he had been here "since the original gecko" - -

Gorgeous day here in NE Fla, Spring is just about to sprung.
This is a pretty depressing read:

Link
Quoting 57. vis0:


and ya where driving a Volkswagen beetle!? ; - P.

On the serious side (any size) hail over you when the storms hit?



I was in a NIssan Quest Van and no hail for me.
Quoting 77. TimSoCal:

This is a pretty depressing read:

Link

90 at KRAL, 88.8 at Indian Hills, 87.3 here, low was 61.0.......
Quoting 54. Tazmanian:





will you please stop all ready thats is like 8 to 12 moths down too rd whats talk about some in thats happening now and not some in that going on 8 too 12 moths i say mods why are you mods even allowing this kind of stuff to be posted day after day?


Agreed, not the least to say the CFS usually screams El Nino pretty much every year 8-12 months in advance.
81. vis0

Quoting 65. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nail in the coughing?

You might like these [Link]
some of mine when i use to entertain the hospitalized people at the hospital in skits i'd do with my friend Pops during our lunch time.

beauty is in the eye of the one you're holding (similar, but selfish)

what goes down, must be on the up n up

what goes up should've been sold while down

one fer the money two fer the one

the customer is always left (behind)

if at first you don't succeed don't count it

what goes around comes back squared

its easier than you think harder than you thought

Might not be much....
I think it's interesting that Dallas TX has been 93 in January and Phoenix has never been in the 90s in January.
Quoting 78. Dakster:



I was in a NIssan Quest Van and no hail for me.
A Ducati would have been more interesting ;)
Quoting 75. vis0:

BTW since the $100 bill is used by criminals it might be scraped or replaced, so i nominate to place Grothar on the $99.99  dollar bill plus to add "in Gro we trust.., or bust.   In this manner if you hear a cuple of people arguing to keep more than 3 pennies ya know a     seal    deal went down.

next week ::

WOW! as in Why Obstruct Wisdom, let enjoy guessing the future... i say big LOW retros up the east coast, reGenesis for reformed in ATL is  23rd  thru 25th.



Thanks for the offer, but I have to decline. I once appeared on a a Roman coin and was mistaken for Nero. I won't go through that again.





Quoting 83. BaltimoreBrian:

I think it's interesting that Dallas TX has been 93 in January and Phoenix has never been in the 90s in January.



Phoenix (33.4 degree north latitude) and Dallas (32.8 degrees north latitude) are basically the same latitude (around 33 degrees north). Dallas is actually a little further south. People naturally think Phoenix is far to the south, but it isn't.

It just happens that the Great Plains have no barriers to stop the Arctic air during the Winter. So cities in the Great Plains (Southern Plains and the Northern Plains) have extreme temperature swings.
.
Quoting 70. Jedkins01:



Yeah here's some video footage of damage as well as some of the severe weather taking place, sounds like there may have been a couple tornadoes in addition to a high density of severe thunderstorm wind damage:

Link

Most of the damage seems to be associated with damage from strong straight line winds and lower end tornado damage:

Link

Here's also some great footage from CBS Miami's facebook page of what appears to be an approaching rain wrapped tornado based on the power flashes and what appears to be rotating heavy rainfall around a meso/tornado. After they guy shuts the door, you can really here the strong winds howling. This video requires facebook access to view, so a login is necessary to see this video, but if you have facebook, it's worth it:

Link

Note, this video above was risky and dangerous. There's no way for whoever did this video to tell how strong the tornado was or if it would make a direct strike, this is very dangerous to video record a potential oncoming tornado, never the less, interesting footage. Definitely appears to be a classic FL rain wrapped tornado.



I didn't see any evidence of a tornado in the first two links . The second one was just click bait to snare people looking for tornadoes anywhere from yesterday. The FB one (which I didn't have to log in to see, since I don't have a FB account) looked more like a tornado, but even that may have been gustnado rather than a true tornado. I didn't see any cars in the parking lot moving, so it was a relatively weak tornado if one actually occured. A rotating cell, as you know, can produce a lot of damage even without a funnel cloud. The squall line was thin but very sharp, and that's the setup that produces a lot of straight line damage. The barometer here rose from 29.69 to 29.78 and the temperature dropped 10 degrees, both within 20 minutes of the squall line moving through.

BMX had some people down here today, and two areas of Barbour and Pike County with warned cells were ruled to be 80 mph straight line wind damage. Four big chicken houses and part of a farmhouse were destroyed here. Most people never see 80 mph winds in their lifetimes, but they can cause a lot of damage, as we saw here. I was lucky to only get a 46 mph gust. My only damage was a vinyl barbecue cover that sailed off somewhere and has yet to be found. They are still taking a look at a possible tornado north of me in Russell County. Based on what I've heard and seen of the damage in pictures, that may have actually been a tornado. They were still clearing secondary roads of trees this morning.
Had to remove video. Bad language. Not the same video from this morning
Quoting 83. BaltimoreBrian:

I think it's interesting that Dallas TX has been 93 in January and Phoenix has never been in the 90s in January.


Nor in December. Same for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Maybe due to low humidity in hot deserts?
Quoting 88. sar2401:

I didn't see any evidence of a tornado in the first two links . The second one was just click bait to snare people looking for tornadoes anywhere from yesterday. The FB one (which I didn't have to log in to see, since I don't have a FB account) looked more like a tornado, but even that may have been gustnado rather than a true tornado. I didn't see any cars in the parking lot moving, so it was a relatively weak tornado if one actually occured. A rotating cell, as you know, can produce a lot of damage even without a funnel cloud. The squall line was thin but very sharp, and that's the setup that produces a lot of straight line damage. The barometer here rose from 29.69 to 29.78 and the temperature dropped 10 degrees, both within 20 minutes of the squall line moving through.

BMX had some people down here today, and two areas of Barbour and Pike County with warned cells were ruled to be 80 mph straight line wind damage. Four big chicken houses and part of a farmhouse were destroyed here. Most people never see 80 mph winds in their lifetimes, but they can cause a lot of damage, as we saw here. I was lucky to only get a 46 mph gust. My only damage was a vinyl barbecue cover that sailed off somewhere and has yet to be found. They are still taking a look at a possible tornado north of me in Russell County. Based on what I've heard and seen of the damage in pictures, that may have actually been a tornado. They were still clearing secondary roads of trees this morning.


Did you see my post #69
Based on their news story the NWS has confirmed two EF1 tornadoes in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. If you watch the second video down the page on the link, they have helicopter footage looking down at a large building complex and several of the buildings had their roof blown off. Link
Beautiful day today after the storms. We ended up having 10 trees down due to straight line winds as well as roofing damage and a greenhouse destroyed at my local school. Only significant wind damage in my county came west right into my trailer. All I can say is that the result could have been much worse us being in a trailer. Still have not received word on rating of tornado in Red Level. If anyone here's about it please tell me. Thanks.
I'm hoping this El Nino(or the rest of it) going to be like 91. February 1991 was the warmest on record for Phoenix but afterwards in March we got over 2 inches of rain. The average temperature was also 6 degrees cooler than that of February.
Quoting 49. Methurricanes:

Rochester got 18inches today, and the city is a mess. 490 is closed, there are abandoned cars all over town, quite a disaster, and suprising to me, I would have though Rochester would be better at dealing with snow.
Rochester may be better than some other cities, but no modern city can handle 18 inches of snow in a relatively short period of time without major disruption. That's one reason our great grandfathers put away the wagons in December and got out the sleighs. A sleigh pulled by oxen could get through almost any kind of snow, and sleighs didn't jacknife on the road. Winters with lots of snow were a good thing in an agrarian economy since a lot of goods could be moved by sleigh when wagons would get bogged down by mud in the spring. All the wood cut last winter got moved by sledge in the present winter. Cold winters are what led to the idea of frozen foods, and farm families could have cold mild for three or four days instead of the lukewarm milk that lasted a day in summer. All the repair work that had to wait during growing season got done in the winter. A lot of it was done in barns heated by the cows and horses, and reports from that era were that people sometimes slept in the barn because it was warmer than the house. Winter wasn't looked at the same way in 1850 that it is today.
Quoting 90. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nor in December. Same for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Maybe due to low humidity in hot deserts?


Low humidity helps phoenix get hot.
Quoting 92. Tcwx2:

Beautiful day today after the storms. We ended up having 10 trees down due to straight line winds as well as roofing damage and a greenhouse destroyed at my local school. Only significant wind damage in my county came west right into my trailer. All I can say is that the result could have been much worse us being in a trailer. Still have not received word on rating of tornado in Red Level. If anyone here's about it please tell me. Thanks.
There were quite a few areas of damage and reported tornadoes in the Mobile forecast area so I imagine it will take them a couple of days to sort it out. Do you usually stay in a trailer? Yesterday was a prime example of why getting out of a trailer before storms come through is a good idea. We have so many tornado deaths in trailers in Alabama, and being in one even when there's just a low end prediction like yesterday is a bad idea. We have a very imperfect understanding of severe weather and, just like yesterday, that low end prediction can turn into more of a high end event with very little warning. I don't trust any of the severe storm forecasts this year, and just assume they are going to be worse than predicted. Nice blue sky today though, wasn't it? Reminded me of being back on the desert again.
Quoting 94. sar2401:

Rochester may be better than some other cities, but no modern city can handle 18 inches of snow in a relatively short period of time without major disruption. That's one reason our great grandfathers put away the wagons in December and got out the sleighs. A sleigh pulled by oxen could get through almost any kind of snow, and sleighs didn't jacknife on the road. Winters with lots of snow were a good thing in an agrarian economy since a lot of goods could be moved by sleigh when wagons would get bogged down by mud in the spring. All the wood cut last winter got moved by sledge in the present winter. Cold winters are what led to the idea of frozen foods, and farm families could have cold mild for three or four days instead of the lukewarm milk that lasted a day in summer. All the repair work that had to wait during growing season got done in the winter. A lot of it was done in barns heated by the cows and horses, and reports from that era were that people sometimes slept in the barn because it was warmer than the house. Winter wasn't looked at the same way in 1850 that it is today.


Spoken like a man who never lived on a farm in true winter territory
Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



Low humidity helps phoenix get hot.
A big ridge like what's building now also leads to a stagnant, sinking air mass. The sinking air combined with the lack of vegetation to absorb the heat creates the hot day air normally associated with a desert. Phoenix and Tucson are two examples of how manmade changes have affected the climate though. There are many times more green plants and trees in those place now than 100 years ago. While they don't do much for the humidity during the day, they do raise the humidity at night, and slow down the typical solar radiation seen in an unmodified desert. Not only are both cities much warmer at night than they were 100 years ago, that warmth builds up when we get a multiday event like this ridge. Less heat escapes at night so the total heat accumulates, and then we see record warmth. I like the desert, and would live on one again if I was younger. Phoenix, however, is no longer the desert we read about in textbooks.
Quoting 97. nymore:



Spoken like a man who never lived on a farm in true winter territory
LOL. Spoken like a man who never lived on a farm in true winter territory in 1850. My wife's relatives had farms all around Iowa since Iowa was first settled. It's from the descendants of those farmers that I got the stories. I read diary entries of how joyful they were when the first snow arrived.
Quoting 99. sar2401:

LOL. Spoken like a man who never lived on a farm in true winter territory in 1850. My wife's relatives had farms all around Iowa since Iowa was first settled. It from the descendants of those farmers that I got the stories. I read diary entries of how joyful they were when the first snow arrived.


You have never seen it on the other hand I live it. I think I will go with first hand experience rather than your opinion
Quoting 90. win1gamegiantsplease:

Nor in December. Same for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Maybe due to low humidity in hot deserts?
Riyadh is more than 2,000 feet above sea level. That also makes a difference.

Dallas is about 600 feet lower than Phoenix, which turns into 2 degrees F of difference.
Advantage, nymore.
Quoting 91. Sfloridacat5:



Did you see my post #69
Based on their news story the NWS has confirmed two EF1 tornadoes in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. If you watch the second video down the page on the link, they have helicopter footage looking down at a large building complex and several of the buildings had their roof blown off. Link
No, I missed your earlier post. I love that kid though. Reporter - "How is this getting cleaned up?" 13 year old girl -"Child labor". :-)

The footage from Pompano Beach looks like a tornado. I couldn't identify clear tornado damage in the other segments. We had very strong straight line winds here that caused a lot of damage too, including extensive tree damage like that shown in the video. Without a better view, I couldn't tell if it was caused by a tornado. I don't know where the tornadoes were in relation to the one Jed posted of the video taken from an apartment building. Maybe the damage was worse elsewhere if that was one of the tornadoes, but it didn't look like an EF-1 at that time to me. Having been on a couple of damage surveys, it's really difficult to know much just looking at some video snippets. It's even harder when they cut off both sides of the video and do what looks like deliberate blurring in a couple of the segments.
104. 882MB
Looks like some nasty weather is currently moving through central Argentina. I heard on the news there was some extreme severe weather yesterday, I saw it earlier today (pretty scary footage). Now there looks to be a second round. Hope it doesn't hit the hard hit areas from last night storms.



Quoting 100. nymore:



You have never seen it on the other hand I live it. I think I will go with first hand experience rather than your opinion
It's not my opinion. It was the opinion of people living on farms in 1850. It might be possible that things today aren't quite the same as in 1850, assuming you don't have a sleigh and oxen as winter transport.
Quoting 102. BaltimoreBrian:

Advantage, nymore.
Are we playing chess here now?
Quoting 105. sar2401:

It's not my opinion. It was the opinion of people living on farms in 1850. It might be possible that things today aren't quite the same as in 1850, assuming you don't have a sleigh and oxen as winter transport.


No sir you are confusing freeze up with snow. Freeze up does help while on the other hand snow when it gets deep is nothing but a headache and kills many animals if you can not get them food . You understand hoofed animals have a hard time keeping on top of the snow while animals with paws (such as dogs) do so much better and become true predators because hoofed pray can not get away.

Pull your sleigh with oxen or whatever I will take dogs and beat you

Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



Low humidity helps phoenix get hot.


Doesn't it go both ways though? Humidity seems to act as a sort of 'antifreeze' where it keeps temperatures warmer than drier places in the winter but cooler than drier places in the summer (how often do the tropics hit 100?). I'd think drier places in winter would feel more of a cool down.

Does the Southwest normally receive most of it's precipitation in the winter, unlike the tropics/Florida?

Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

Riyadh is more than 2,000 feet above sea level. That also makes a difference.

Dallas is about 600 feet lower than Phoenix, which turns into 2 degrees F of difference.


Didn't take that into account. Tried looking for hot desert climates at similar latitudes and without as much influence from the sea.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Are we playing chess here now?


No, Tennis.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Are we playing chess here now?


Advantage sounds more like tennis :p
Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

Riyadh is more than 2,000 feet above sea level. That also makes a difference.

Dallas is about 600 feet lower than Phoenix, which turns into 2 degrees F of difference.


Furthermore, just look at Baghdad, exactly on the same latitude as Phoenix and lower in altitude, only a 100ft. Their record high for January is 76 and 80 for February, which Phoenix easily beats out. The main difference between these two desert locations is that one has a ocean to its west and the other continuous arid land. Continentality is far greater in Baghdad causing lower winter temps than in Phoenix which has Pacific influence. With Phoenix being warmer in winter, it is cooler than Baghdad in summer due to it's higher altitude and monsoon.
Quoting 108. StormTrackerScott:



Don't get pissed @ me Taz. Again you can blame this feature getting stuck WSW of the Dateline for the next week for possibly derailing La-Nina this Fall. CFS could be right this time around.

Say what you want but you don't expect to see this when transitioning to la-Nina. Going to be a lot of potentially dysfunctional people on here this Summer.


Hi Scott,
Is it possible we're ramping up into another Super El Nino?
114. Tcwx2
Well we do have a so called "barn" (more like a shop) that is on concrete and very safe...unless a tree falls through which we were afraid of. The reason we weren't out of the trailer before that is because we felt that our shop would be safe and within reasonable distance. However, at one point I timed out the tornado (which had already done major damage) and it was coming right over us. That was definitely the most scared I have ever been. Based on the NWS wind estimates on trees I estimate our winds were right around hurricane force, or 65-75 mph. These trees weren't uprooted like you see most of the time. These trees were snapped. I do think there was a quick spin-up on top of us and most winds were out of the south so most trees were facing north but an area of small, 1-5 year old trees were pointing SSW. However I cannot confirm this. By the way, I make a lot of mistakes while I'm typing and I'm not going to proofread this so I'm sorry if there are grammacal errors.
Quoting 96. sar2401:

There were quite a few areas of damage and reported tornadoes in the Mobile forecast area so I imagine it will take them a couple of days to sort it out. Do you usually stay in a trailer? Yesterday was a prime example of why getting out of a trailer before storms come through is a good idea. We have so many tornado deaths in trailers in Alabama, and being in one even when there's just a low end prediction like yesterday is a bad idea. We have a very imperfect understanding of severe weather and, just like yesterday, that low end prediction can turn into more of a high end event with very little warning. I don't trust any of the severe storm forecasts this year, and just assume they are going to be worse than predicted. Nice blue sky today though, wasn't it? Reminded me of being back on the desert again.
Quoting 113. Llamaluvr:



Not likely but I can see weak El-Nino persisting this Fall. Hard to have WWB ongoing thru March and expect just to magically go to La Nina. Again there might be some unhappy camper on here if Cyclones keep popping off west of the Dateline.
.
Quoting 112. Vagelatos:



Furthermore, just look at Baghdad, exactly on the same latitude as Phoenix and lower in altitude, only a 100ft. Their record high for January is 76 and 80 for February, which Phoenix easily beats out. The main difference between these two desert locations is that one has a ocean to its west and the other continuous arid land. Continentality is far greater in Baghdad causing lower winter temps than in Phoenix which has Pacific influence. With Phoenix being warmer in winter, it is cooler than Baghdad in summer due to it's higher altitude and monsoon.


The Med/Pgulf wouldn't have nearly as much of an influence on their weather as the Pacific does on the west coast. And that whole Africa thingy in the way.

Quoting 110. Drakoen:



No, Tennis.


Beat me by a post :/
Quoting 115. Gearsts:



The Arctic's performance this winter has been crap.
Quoting 116. StormTrackerScott:



Not likely but I can see weak El-Nino persisting this Fall. Hard to have WWB ongoing thru March and expect just to magically go to La Nina. Again there might be some unhappy camper on here if Cyclones keep popping off west of the Dateline.
Thanks, I think you're right.
Advantage, Stormtracker.
Quoting 119. Gearsts:




Could be a wet year...
Let me make a plug.

http://www.monolithic.org/homes

The monolithic dome home can be built for just a little more than a stick built custom home. (Both are more expensive than a tract home) I have looked into many building methods. Structural Insulated Panels, Insulated Concrete Forms, post and beam, metal building, straw bale, rammed earth, aerated concrete block, dry stack cinder block and of course stick built. For most of the world, only structural insulated panels, and monolithic domes are competitive with a well built stick built house, and for practical purposes a well built to code stick built house is the best economic value. But, nothing will stand up to disaster like a monolithic dome home, they stand up to toranadoes, laugh at hurricanes, survive forest fires, and stand during earth quakes, (there is a way to build the foundation to survive the liquidification that happens in some soils in some earth quakes. )

I personally have decided that if I were to move to toranado alley, I would build a dome home of some sort. If I could get away with it, a hobbit house.

If the link doesn't work, just type in monolithic dome in the search bar, it will come right up.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 111. win1gamegiantsplease:



Advantage sounds more like tennis :p
Yeah. That was supposed to be funny. As usual, I have failed again. :-)
Quoting 126. sar2401:

Yeah. That was supposed to be funny. As usual, I have failed again. :-)


To be fair, I feel like whoever invented the phrase "he/she is playing chess while they're playing checkers" watched me doublejump a couple rooks with my pawn and say 'king me.'
Because a record wet period for the winter isn't enough. Actually, it's been a while since our last real windstorm, which was mid November I believe. So I suppose one is warranted. Either way, the ground is saturated and trees are more likely to fall right now. Which is, putting it mildly, less than ideal.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion regarding the development of a low that could potentially bring high winds to the region.

A 993 MB LOW NOW NEAR 45N 141W IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO 977 MB WED EVENING AS IT MOVES TO 48N 141W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE WED AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE LOW THU AS IT WOBBLES INLAND. THE 18Z GFS ONLY WEAKENS THE LOW TO 984 MB AS IT SLAMS THE LOW ONTO THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST AROUND FORKS WITH A NICE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS SHOWED ONLY A WEAK TRIPLE POINT FEATURE ALONG AN OCCLUSION WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING INTO QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND. THE 18Z NAM12 SLAMS A 989 MB LOW INTO THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS20 THAT WAS FOLLOWED. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WIND ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND CONCERNING WAVES AND HIGH SURF ON THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST IS LOW.

So if it makes landfall near Forks, then Seattle and Tacoma would likely get strong winds. If it makes landfall near Columbia River, then Portland could be in the bullseye. Or it could do nothing but send a typical front through. Nice. It's only 48 hours out. Glad it's not my job to forecast Thursday's weather! At least they've added "breezy" to the forecast for Thursday. Nicely covering their bases...

Quoting 107. nymore:



No sir you are confusing freeze up with snow. Freeze up does help while on the other hand snow when it gets deep is nothing but a headache and kills many animals if you can not get them food . You understand hoofed animals have a hard time keeping on top of the snow while animals with paws (such as dogs) do so much better and become true predators because hoofed pray can not get away.

Pull your sleigh with oxen or whatever I will take dogs and beat you


That's why they used big snow rollers to compact the snow on roads and make it easier on horses pulling sleighs. Your dogs might have a close race with horses on a road after the snow roller had done its job. Oxen were more often used to get the snow roller out, get to places in the forest to move wood, repair dams, or haul freight. They'd rig up boards on plows to clear out paths people needed to get around the farm, hence the term snow plow. My wife's relatives were (and are) dairy farmers, and their cows were in the barn every day, and stayed in the barn during a big snowstorm. There weren't any range cattle I'm aware of in eastern Iowa in those days. There were times of great hardship when there were days long blizzards, but an 18 inch snowfall would have been taken pretty much in stride on a farm in 1850, which was my original point.
Quoting 127. win1gamegiantsplease:



To be fair, I feel like whoever invented the phrase "he/she is playing chess while they're playing checkers" watched me doublejump a couple rooks and say 'king me.'
Hehe. Those tall pieces were the tip off to me which game I was playing. :-)
Quoting 62. vis0:


Do they wears masks in Europe when Saharan dusts come by?

i wonder though some plants can use the Saharan dust to thrive (via phosphorus and nitrogen) does it damage European crops (as olive oil) and does the dust bring diseases to plants as it does to the repertory systems of animals?



I know a couple years ago, I lost several DOZEN tomato seedlings in about three hours from damping off - it happened during one of our early spring windstorms when the cottonwoods were shedding their "cotton." Even sheltered from the direct wind impact, I figure either the wind was carrying something in the dust, or the cottonwood fibers in the air lacerated the cell walls of the tender little stems. So sad to just watch those plants slowly lean over and die.
Goodnight all, just a few more days until the weekend. Already making plans to enjoy it, the beach sounds nice on a February day ;-]

Quoting 130. sar2401:

Hehe. Those tall pieces were the tip off to me which game I was playing. :-)


Hey that's a step ahead of me
Quoting 109. win1gamegiantsplease:



Doesn't it go both ways though? Humidity seems to act as a sort of 'antifreeze' where it keeps temperatures warmer than drier places in the winter but cooler than drier places in the summer (how often do the tropics hit 100?). I'd think drier places in winter would feel more of a cool down.

Does the Southwest normally receive most of it's precipitation in the winter, unlike the tropics/Florida?
The Southwest is a big place. If we're talking about Phoenix and the Sonoran desert, about 70% of the precipitation happens in winter and late fall and 25% in summer, with a little scattered in the other months. The Sonoran desert is influenced more by the Gulf of California and, strangely, the Gulf Mexico, in summer. Most of the winter rains come from the Pacific, although tropical storms making it north can also cause convective rain from the Pacific. The summer rains are widely variable depending on how the monsoon sets up. Southerly and southeasterly flow brings in moisture and unstable air from both Gulfs. That can set off big thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. In good monsoon years, 80% of the rain for the year can fall in summer. Some of the best thunderstorms I've ever seen have been out on the desert. The most weird is being near a big wash and watching a raging torrent come down when there's no rain and not even many clouds nearby. It's the unseen storm on the other side of the mountain that causes it, and people die every year getting caught in the washes.
Quoting 128. Seattleite:

Because a record wet period for the winter isn't enough. Actually, it's been a while since our last real windstorm, which was mid November I believe. So I suppose one is warranted. Either way, the ground is saturated and trees are more likely to fall right now. Which is, putting it mildly, less than ideal.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion regarding the development of a low that could potentially bring high winds to the region.

A 993 MB LOW NOW NEAR 45N 141W IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO 977 MB WED EVENING AS IT MOVES TO 48N 141W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE WED AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE LOW THU AS IT WOBBLES INLAND. THE 18Z GFS ONLY WEAKENS THE LOW TO 984 MB AS IT SLAMS THE LOW ONTO THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST AROUND FORKS WITH A NICE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS SHOWED ONLY A WEAK TRIPLE POINT FEATURE ALONG AN OCCLUSION WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING INTO QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND. THE 18Z NAM12 SLAMS A 989 MB LOW INTO THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS20 THAT WAS FOLLOWED. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WIND ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND CONCERNING WAVES AND HIGH SURF ON THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST IS LOW.

So if it makes landfall near Forks, then Seattle and Tacoma would likely get strong winds. If it makes landfall near Columbia River, then Portland could be in the bullseye. Or it could do nothing but send a typical front through. Nice. It's only 48 hours out. Glad it's not my job to forecast Thursday's weather! At least they've added "breezy" to the forecast for Thursday. Nicely covering their bases...


That forecaster likes the term "slam". As usual this year, the models are still fighting it out. As you say, however, this has been a remarkably unwindy year up there. It was always windy...and rainy...when I was up there in the winter. I guess part of that is El Nino, but it doesn't seem as if El Nino is behaving well on the rest of the West Coast. This doesn't have the "look" of a windy storm on satellite, but that can change fast up there. If it does develop, your trip across the floating bridge will be fun. :-)
The house that was the last staple of any human settlement on Holland island in MD is now completely gone under the waves

Quoting 134. sar2401:

That forecaster likes the term "slam". As usual this year, the models are still fighting it out. As you say, however, this has been a remarkably unwindy year up there. It was always windy...and rainy...when I was up there in the winter. I guess part of that is El Nino, but it doesn't seem as if El Nino is behaving well on the rest of the West Coast. This doesn't have the "look" of a windy storm on satellite, but that can change fast up there. If it does develop, your trip across the floating bridge will be fun. :-)


My time of free 520 car washes will be coming to an end over the next year or two, specific date TBD. A new, more earthquake resistant, bridge is under construction. It is raised about 10 feet off the water, so as to reduce the whole waves push your car into the next lane thing that sometimes happens. In theory, the new bridge will be able to remain open in winds up to 60mph. Currently they close the bridges for sustained winds over 40mph, and when gusts are forecast above 60mph. So at least that'll help traffic during wind storms I suppose...

As to the El-Nino wind storm thing. Nearly all of our of our truly severe windstorms actually happened during neutral years. In La Nina years it just rains,and is that steady breezy wind associated with common frontal passages. What's odd about this year, is how heavy the precipitation is. It isn't raining as often, but when it does it's actual rain. I was actually discussing with my husband yesterday how I miss our mist. Normally, it mists all day for a grand total of .03 inches. This year, every time it rains we get at least .1 to .25 inches. This is little in comparison to FL or somewhere else, but that is a huge difference for a place located solidly within a rain shadow.
So the latest Seattle NWS Discussion is roughly 20 minutes late... I bet it has nothing to do with waiting on newer model runs. I usually read the 9:30PST Discussion prior to bedtime. However, here I am tonight anxiously waiting. The trials and tribulations of weather geeks. I don't normally do this unless it's hurricane season. Humph. Time to sleep. I suppose I'll see what tomorrow's discussion and model runs will bring.
Sunny all day got up to 55° here in Acme, wa. 7" total rainfall in 5 days. Cascade snowpack is 109% of average last time i checked.
So was the Pennsylvania rodent correct?
948 hPa in the latest bulletin from Madagascar (90 knots - 10 mins winds)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Hurricane Warning
=====================================
Northeast of Rodrigues Island

At 10:00 AM RET, Tropical Cyclone Uriah (963 hPa) located at 18.2S 80.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 45 NM in the southern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 18.8S 79.5E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 20.1S 78.5E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.0S 78.5E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 22.5S 78.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=================
Over the last 6 hours, the elongated eye became more symmetric and warmer in infrared, suggesting a rather strong intensification of Uriah. However, on the last images, the cloud pattern temporarily deteriorate, with a weakness in the eastern semi-circle, giving a T inferior to CI. This deepening is due to the improvement of the polar side outflow and by the presence of high potential waters beneath the cyclone. This morning ASCAT swaths show that the strongest winds are located in the southern semi-circle, where the pressure gradient is maximal. The track started to shift southwestwards, slowing down.

Tomorrow, with the rebuilding of a mid-level ridge in the east, the system will continue to bend southward. Friday, Uriah is likely to slow down because of the building of a mid level ridge in the south. Model guidance still show large spread from Friday evening, suggesting an increased uncertainty. However, the majority of the ensemble members and the other numerical weather prediction models forecast a southward track steered by a baroclinic low moving towards the mid-latitudes and causing a weakness in the subtropical ridge.

On this track, according to the last trends, there is a high chance that Uriah will reach the intense tropical cyclone intensity this night, before leaving the warmer waters, limiting its strength. Upper levels conditions should become progressively less conducive with a slight northwesterly vertical wind shear, increasing Saturday with the arrival of an upper trough. Then the ocean heat content should be marginal south of 23.0-24.0S, leading to a significant filing. Moreover, the slow motion forecast from Friday may participate in the cooling of the underlying sea surface temperatures.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #28
HURRICANE WARNING
=============================
Northeast Of Tonga
Northwest Of Niue

A GALE WARNING is in force for Niue

At 18:00 PM FST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Three (960 hPa) located at 17.3S 171.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Deep convection remains persistent.cloud tops cooling past 6 hours. Organization remains good. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System lies in low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and north. System is being steered to the east northeast by the west southwest deep layer mean wind flow. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center pattern with low level circulation center embedded in B yields DT=5.0, MET=5.0, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 17.3S 170.4W - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 17.4S 170.6W - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 18.0S 172.9W - 95 knots (CAT 4)
A low precipitation totals storm forecast for Soo Cal Wed Night-Thursday and weakening as the front comes through my area in San Diego County. It's been bone dry in Soo Cal since January 31. The Sierras now below average for snowfall, but more storms will be affecting Nor Cal and Central California. I hope these storms do come as forecast. Even Soo Cal is forecast to get a few storms the first week of March. Maybe California will get a Miracle March or at least a wet one. If not 2015-2016 El Nino will be El Busto! Maybe El Nino will mean just average rain for California in the future instead of drought and less than half normal totals.

Here's the storm for Soo Cal...........drip drip drip!



And a couple storms off Nor Cal-Oregon

Thanks for the update Mr Henson! Bummer news for sure.......let's hope for wet March/April in Cali!
Quoting 138. plantmoretrees:

Sunny all day got up to 55° here in Acme, wa. 7" total rainfall in 5 days. Cascade snowpack is 109% of average last time i checked.


Glad some folks are getting good rain and snow!
Quoting 134. sar2401:

That forecaster likes the term "slam". As usual this year, the models are still fighting it out. As you say, however, this has been a remarkably unwindy year up there. It was always windy...and rainy...when I was up there in the winter. I guess part of that is El Nino, but it doesn't seem as if El Nino is behaving well on the rest of the West Coast. This doesn't have the "look" of a windy storm on satellite, but that can change fast up there. If it does develop, your trip across the floating bridge will be fun. :-)


I like the word slam when mentioned with storms! I just don't get to hear or read it often enough......Port Townsend......here I come!
Yes it was too dang hot for Feb today in Soo Cal! 88 at my Doctor in Ramona, inland valley San Diego County. Was 61 at my place in the mountains when I got back home at 5:45pm.
Quoting 104. 882MB:

Looks like some nasty weather is currently moving through central Argentina. I heard on the news there was some extreme severe weather yesterday, I saw it earlier today (pretty scary footage). Now there looks to be a second round. Hope it doesn't hit the hard hit areas from last night storms.






Looks like the word SLAM might apply to that!
Have a great day everyone!
too far out in time but..next week could get interesting...............
Quoting 88. sar2401:

I didn't see any evidence of a tornado in the first two links . The second one was just click bait to snare people looking for tornadoes anywhere from yesterday. The FB one (which I didn't have to log in to see, since I don't have a FB account) looked more like a tornado, but even that may have been gustnado rather than a true tornado. I didn't see any cars in the parking lot moving, so it was a relatively weak tornado if one actually occured. A rotating cell, as you know, can produce a lot of damage even without a funnel cloud. The squall line was thin but very sharp, and that's the setup that produces a lot of straight line damage.
Well, a wise man knows that eyes can too easily be deceived. Which is, of course, why the NWS conducts on-site damage surveys; personal interpretations of video snippets found on social media are simply too unreliable to be of any use.

Anyway, speaking of video snippets, here's a dash cam video of the Broward tornado taken by a clueless driver who fails to see it as he unintentionally intercepts and plows into the funnel on Dixie Highway in Pompano (and announces that he's in a hurricane). REQUISITE WARNING: AUDIO CONTAINS VERY PROFANE COMMENTARY; YOU MAY WANT TO MUTE YOUR VOLUME BEFORE CLICKING THE LINK.
Quoting 131. nonblanche:



I know a couple years ago, I lost several DOZEN tomato seedlings in about three hours from damping off - it happened during one of our early spring windstorms when the cottonwoods were shedding their "cotton." Even sheltered from the direct wind impact, I figure either the wind was carrying something in the dust, or the cottonwood fibers in the air lacerated the cell walls of the tender little stems. So sad to just watch those plants slowly lean over and die.
Seedlings dying due to damping-off is usually attributed to some sort of fungal infection. Perhaps the windy conditions spread the spores to your plants. The fungus stops the uptake of water from the roots, thus "damping-off", as I understand it.
SOI is really beginning to tank now. The SOI crash combined with a 4 to 6 week period of westerly wind anomalies will likely result in a new oceanic Kelvin Wave near or west of the Dateline over the next month or so.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 17 Feb 2016 Average for last 30 days -10.69
Average for last 90 days -13.01
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -40.20


Infact latest CFSv2 is showing a new Kelvin Wave developing and surfaces during the Summer months.

000
NOUS42 KMFL 162353
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-171200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
653 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR FEBRUARY 16, 2016 TORNADO EVENTS...

...EF-1 TORNADOES IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...

.BROWARD COUNTY/POMPANO BEACH TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: FEB 16 2016
START TIME: 710 AM EST
START LOCATION: 1 SW POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK, FL
START LAT/LON: 26.245/-80.1289

END DATE: FEB 16 2016
END TIME: 716 AM EST
END LOCATION: 1 S LIGHTHOUSE POINT, FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.2663/-80.0859

EF-1 TORNADO AFFECTED PARTS OF POMPANO BEACH AND LIGHTHOUSE POINT ON
A DISCONTINUOUS 3 MILE PATH. TRACK BEGAN AT NORTHWEST 14TH STREET JUST
WEST OF NORTH DIXIE HIGHWAY IN POMPANO BEACH, THEN TRACKED OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK PROPERTY,
THEN ACROSS POMPANO BEACH GOLF COURSE AND POMPANO CITI CENTER. THE
TORNADO THEN CROSSED FEDERAL HIGHWAY/US 1 NEAR COPANS ROAD AND INTO
LIGHTHOUSE POINT. THE TRACK ENDED NEAR NORTHEAST 28 AVE AND NORTHEAST
28 STREET IN LIGHTHOUSE POINT, LESS THAN A HALF-MILE FROM THE BEACH.

ROOF DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED AT A HOME AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TRACK ON
NORTHWEST 14TH STREET WHICH IS ESTIMATED AS EF-1 DAMAGE. THE TORNADO
DAMAGED SEVERAL HORSE STABLES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NORTH DIXIE HIGHWAY
CLOSE TO THE POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK. ONE HORSE SUSTAINED INJURIES.
TREES WERE DAMAGED ON THE POMPANO BEACH GOLF COURSE PROPERTY AND ADJACENT
TO POMPANO CITI PARK. THERE WAS A GAP IN THE AREA OF DAMAGE NEAR FEDERAL
HIGHWAY/US 1, WITH DAMAGE PICKING BACK UP IN LIGHTHOUSE POINT BETWEEN
NORTHEAST 24 STREET AND NE 28 STREET. DAMAGE IN LIGHTHOUSE POINT CONSISTED
MAINLY OF UPROOTED TREES AND BROKEN TREE BRANCHES, DOWNED POWER LINES AND
MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A FEW HOMES. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE EF-0
RANGE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK.

.NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: FEB 16 2016
START TIME: 751 AM EST
START LOCATION: 2 ENE SUN LIFE STADIUM, FL
START LAT/LON: 25.9553/-80.2159

END DATE: FEB 16 2016
END TIME: 759 AM EST
END LOCATION: 1 WSW AVENTURA, FL
END_LAT/LON: 25.9519/-80.1551

EF-1 TORNADO AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS
OF NORLAND, IVES ESTATES AND OJUS...GENERALLY BETWEEN NE 191 STREET
AND IVES DAIRY ROAD FROM NORTHWEST 8 AVENUE TO NORTHEAST 23 AVENUE.
THE TORNADO OR AT LEAST THE PARENT CIRCULATION CROSSED INTERSTATE 95
JUST SOUTH OF IVES DAIRY ROAD. THE TORNADO HAD A DISCONTINUOUS PATH OF
3.8 MILES, WITH A POSSIBLE CYCLING/REORGANIZATION OF THE CIRCULATION
NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

MOST OF THE DAMAGE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 CONSISTED OF TREES UPROOTED
OR SNAPPED, ALONG WITH NUMEROUS BROKEN TREE BRANCHES. SEVERAL LIGHT POLES
WERE LEANING, WITH ONE WOODEN POLE SNAPPED NEAR THE BASE. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
WAS MINIMAL, WITH A FEW ROOFS DAMAGED FROM UPROOTED TREES AND FALLEN TREE
BRANCHES. THE AREA OF LIKELY EF-1 DAMAGE WAS BETWEEN NORTHWEST 2 AVENUE/
US 441 AND THE SNAKE CREEK CANAL NEAR NORTHEAST 3 AVENUE AND NE 191
STREET, AS WELL AS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO NORTHEAST 14 AVENUE. SHINGLES
WERE REMOVED FROM AN APARTMENT BUILDING ALONG NORTHEAST 191 STREET AND
NORTHEAST 14 AVENUE. ELSEWHERE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95, DAMAGE WAS MAINLY
FROM TREES UPROOTED/BROKEN LARGE BRANCHES, WITH MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A
HOME NEAR THE END OF THE TRACK AT NORTHEAST 191 STREET AND NORTHEAST 23
AVENUE.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...>200 MPH*

NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$

BROWARD COUNTY TORNADO SURVEY...DELLINGER
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TORNADO SURVEY...MOLLEDA/HART
OFFICE COORDINATION/ANALYSIS...SANTOS/GREGORIA/KONARIK
NWS Melbourne...
Extended Forecast...
TUE-WED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG MID LVL S/W
TROUGH WILL DROP TOWARD THE WRN GULF COAST EARLY TUE AND DEVELOP A
SFC LOW NEAR AL COAST TUE MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE ERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON.
00Z ECMWF LOOKS
DEEPER AND SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ADD A
A SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE TUE NIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER RISK FROM TONIGHTS GUIDANCE MODELS. WILL HAVE POPS
IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TUESDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY BUT PROXIMITY TO MID LVL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH MAY BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO NRN AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S WED EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS.
Quoting 151. tampabaymatt:




Looking nuts here in FL Tuesday and next Wednesday. We really need to watch this one carefully.

NOUS42 KMFL 170037
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-171245-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...TORNADO IN MOORE HAVEN/GLADES COUNTY...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS FROM GLADES COUNTY SURVEYED DAMAGE IN
MOORE HAVEN AND CONFIRMED A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. THE TORNADO BEGAN 1 MILE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN AT 449 AM AND LIFTED ABOUT 1 MILE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOORE HAVEN AT 453 AM.

BEGINNING POINT IS 26.8173/-81.1064 AND END POINT IS 26.8276/-81.0802.

SEVERAL OLD MOBILE HOMES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED, ALONG WITH BROKEN
TREE BRANCHES. PRELIMINARY RATING IS EF-0/WINDS NEAR 80 MPH BASED ON THE
DAMAGE TO THE MOBILE HOMES.

THANKS TO GLADES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SURVEYING THE DAMAGE AND
PROVIDING THE INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

MOLLEDA
Quoting 150. Neapolitan:

Well, a wise man knows that eyes can too easily be deceived. Which is, of course, why the NWS conducts on-site damage surveys; personal interpretations of video snippets found on social media are simply too unreliable to be of any use.

Anyway, speaking of video snippets, here's a dash cam video of the Broward tornado taken by a clueless driver who fails to see it as he unintentionally intercepts and plows into the funnel on Dixie Highway in Pompano (and announces that he's in a hurricane). REQUISITE WARNING: AUDIO CONTAINS VERY PROFANE COMMENTARY; YOU MAY WANT TO MUTE YOUR VOLUME BEFORE CLICKING THE LINK.


I did spot Tornado damage next to Northbound I-95 near Ives Dairy Road exit. It was mainly limited to downed and partially downed trees, as those trees are there to block I-95 from view next to a golf course. That's the second closest a Tornado has reached my place. The closest was when I lived with my folks and a EF0 briefly touched down a street away, knocking down a 60 year Oak Tree. It looked like it was only down for 500 feet or so.
Quoting 149. LargoFl:

too far out in time but..next week could get interesting...............

Yup, looking like there is going to be something next week, the cold air is going to determine if it's just another rain storm or if we have another big snow in the mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 156. fmbill:

NWS Melbourne...
Extended Forecast...
TUE-WED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG MID LVL S/W
TROUGH WILL DROP TOWARD THE WRN GULF COAST EARLY TUE AND DEVELOP A
SFC LOW NEAR AL COAST TUE MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE ERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON.
00Z ECMWF LOOKS
DEEPER AND SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ADD A
A SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE TUE NIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER RISK FROM TONIGHTS GUIDANCE MODELS. WILL HAVE POPS
IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TUESDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY BUT PROXIMITY TO MID LVL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH MAY BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO NRN AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S WED EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS.


Even The Weather Channel said there could be a Tornado Outbreak across FL beginning Tuesday.
Quoting 162. StormTrackerScott:



Even The Weather Channel said there could be a Tornado Outbreak across FL beginning Tuesday.


I don't like it. I'm scheduled to fly out of Orlando early Wednesday morning. If my jurisdiction is impacted, I'll have to cancel my trip. :-(
Quoting 163. fmbill:



I don't like it. I'm scheduled to fly out of Orlando early Wednesday morning. If my jurisdiction is impacted, I'll have to cancel my trip. :-(


This next system looks like it means business.

Al Roker showed the surveillance video that shows one of the tornadoes in South Florida yesterday morning. But then he said "It was an F3."
We don't even use that scale anymore. We now use the EF scale, and it's obvious the tornado in the video IS NOT an EF-3.
Quoting 162. StormTrackerScott:



Even The Weather Channel said there could be a Tornado Outbreak across FL beginning Tuesday.


Are you sure they are using the word "outbreak" for something that a week out.
These Westerly Wind Anomalies are trending stronger and further east. So what I think we are going to see is a steady decline in SST's as this cool pool surfaces but as a result of sustained westerly anomalies another OKW is going to form and re energized El-Nino later in the Summer especially going into Fall.

Quoting 166. Bucsboltsfan:



Are you sure they are using the word "outbreak" for something that a week out.


Yup, they sure did earlier this morning. They had the Euro run up showing people that if you live in FL you need to watch this next system for a potential severe weather outbreak likely including tornadoes is exactly what they said.
when one looks at wind anomalies...you must first realize there are always anomalies...both positive and negative.....and as such...you must look at the big picture.....here's the aussie mets talking about the tradewinds in their latest update that came out yesterday.......

Trade winds for the 5 days ending 14 February are mostly close to normal across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is little change in the pattern from a fortnight ago.
The return to near-normal trade winds is consistent with a declining El Niño. Prior to January 2016, trade winds had been consistently weaker than average, and on occasion reversed in direction (i.e. westerly rather than easterly), since the start of 2015.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening, or even reversal, of the trade winds.
here's what emily becker phd and research scientist contracted by NOAA and contributor of the ENSO BLOG on climate.gov had to say on the subject on the 11th

Despite getting a little boost from some strong winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean in January, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that drive El Niño have likely peaked. Now that we’re looking out from the other side of the mountain, let’s answer some questions.
Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast in Global Tropics Domain


here's a few model runs from feb 11th........

yeah, don't like this set-up,hope the models change into next week...
Quoting 161. 1Zach1:


Yup, looking like there is going to be something next week, the cold air is going to determine if it's just another rain storm or if we have another big snow in the mid-Atlantic.
The GFS ensembles have been east of the operational.I remember back in March 2014 we had 60 degree weather before the St.Patrick's day snowstorm and RNA still got 7 inches.
Quoting 166. Bucsboltsfan:



Are you sure they are using the word "outbreak" for something that a week out.
BMX mentioned the possibility of strong storms Tuesday. That's about as good a forecast as can be made seven days out. Might happen, might not. As far as TWC goes, it's a good thing to remember that they exist only based on ad segments, and what they can sell is based on ratings. It's a lot better for ratings to use a term like "outbreak" instead of something more meteorologically correct.
Quoting 54. Tazmanian:





will you please stop all ready thats is like 8 to 12 moths down too rd whats talk about some in thats happening now and not some in that going on 8 too 12 moths i say mods why are you mods even allowing this kind of stuff to be posted day after day?
Relax Taz, Scott always uses the least reliable Nino model. Their will be a Nina this summer according to the more reliable models.
Quoting 173. LargoFl:

yeah, don't like this set-up,hope the models change into next week...
I like this setup even less...

Quoting 154. StormTrackerScott:

SOI is really beginning to tank now. The SOI crash combined with a 4 to 6 week period of westerly wind anomalies will likely result in a new oceanic Kelvin Wave near or west of the Dateline over the next month or so.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 17 Feb 2016 Average for last 30 days -10.69
Average for last 90 days -13.01
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -40.20


Infact latest CFSv2 is showing a new Kelvin Wave developing and surfaces during the Summer months.
[...]
I think you are on the right track Scott. My simplified way of looking for the continuation of El-Nino or at least warm-neutral conditions is to watch for the initiation of a new down-welling phase of the Kelvin wave. WWBs help drive the down-welling. This latest down-welling phase is much weaker than the last two, but it was initiated and is propagating east, thus no quick phase change to La Nina as in '97-'98, as is plainly evident now.

(Image from http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story .html)
The down-welling pushes down on the thermocline, so nothing really "surfaces", though. Following the down-welling phase, the up-welling phase of the Kelvin wave surfaces and brings the cooler waters up from the depths. So after the current down-welling wave finishes, I will wait to see if a new down-welling wave gets going somewhere west of the dateline. Westerly wind anomalies could help that to happen. Climatology points towards weakening to neutral and transition to La Nina, but time will tell.
Quoting 65. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nail in the coughing?

You might like these [Link]
Scotts only stirring the pot, lets see what happens after the so called Spring Barrier. Their will be a Nina this summer, or the next, or maybe in 2018, does this forecast sound familiar?
I like where we sit with the ECMWF 00z EPS as it lends credence to the potential for the ECMWF OP to shift a big to the southeast and have us in the cold sector for the entirety of the storm.
when looking at the SOI.....the daily values while they count on the 30 and the 90 day totals.....you must take into consideration what the contributing factors are....here's what the aussie mets had to say about it in a recent discussion


Fluctuations of the SOI during Australia's northern wet
season (October–April) are not unusual as the
passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti
affects atmospheric pressure. During this period, the
SOI should be used cautiously; 90-day values can
provide a more reliable guidance. The current 90-day
SOI is −11.9.
Quoting 165. Sfloridacat5:

Al Roker showed the surveillance video that shows one of the tornadoes in South Florida yesterday morning. But then he said "It was an F3."
We don't even use that scale anymore. We now use the EF scale, and it's obvious the tornado in the video IS NOT an EF-3.
Al Roker. Does anyone actually think that guy ever knew what he was talking about? I liked him better when he was chubby...and happy.
Quoting 168. StormTrackerScott:



Yup, they sure did earlier this morning. They had the Euro run up showing people that if you live in FL you need to watch this next system for a potential severe weather outbreak likely including tornadoes is exactly what they said.


That's hype then. Yes, models are showing a potential system next week but it is a week out and we all know how much can change. Hyping tornado outbreak for Florida a week out is irresponsible forecasting.
Quoting 123. Llamaluvr:

Thanks, I think you're right.
Advantage, Stormtracker.
Scotts forecast are based on the least reliable Nino model on the planet, while all the other more reliable models point to Neutral, or Nina conditions starting in the Spring of 2016, and moving foreword into the summer o 2016 should be the beginning of a Nina. Advantage Nina.
Quoting 184. Bucsboltsfan:



That's hype then. Yes, models are showing a potential system next week but it is a week out and we all know how much can change. Hyping tornado outbreak for Florida a week out is irresponsible forecasting.


TWC said their was 10 reports of tornadoes in the FLL/MIA area yesterday from a system no where near as strong as what is forecast for next week.
I guarantee we have a large snow storm next week...Why? not because of the mets but because I was going up north next week for a trip and nature has a way of putting the breaks on my plans in winter.What is this curse that continuously follows me around like a bad odor! I haven't cancelled as I've held out hope that it will be a rain storm or just go out to sea all together.
Quoting 184. Bucsboltsfan:



That's hype then. Yes, models are showing a potential system next week but it is a week out and we all know how much can change. Hyping tornado outbreak for Florida a week out is irresponsible forecasting.


TWC is rampant with hype. Personally, I don't watch TWC as it resembles more of a TV show than weather forecasting. Models are pointing toward a front and associated surface low crossing FL next Tuesday, but it's way too soon to know how high the severe potential will be. I don't know if you watch Bay News 9, but I think the mets do a great job just telling it like it is.
So what is the temp?

XKCD

http://www.xkcd.com/
Quoting 177. NativeSun:

Relax Taz, Scott always uses the least reliable Nino model. Their will be a Nina this summer according to the more reliable models.



i have been nic about this i has asking him 100s of times too please tone it down on the EL nino but now this is starting too get out of control with the same old same out maps posting and stuff and mods are not doing nothing about it vary poor moding going on with the mods
Quoting 171. ricderr:

Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast in Global Tropics Domain



Looks like a Nina forming to me.
Quoting 179. guygee:

I think you are on the right track Scott. My simplified way of looking for the continuation of El-Nino or at least warm-neutral conditions is to watch for the initiation of a new down-welling phase of the Kelvin wave. WWBs help drive the down-welling. This latest down-welling phase is much weaker than the last two, but it was initiated and is propagating east, thus no quick phase change to La Nina as in '97-'98, as is plainly evident now.

(Image from http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story .html)
The down-welling pushes down on the thermocline, so nothing really "surfaces", though. Following the down-welling phase, the up-welling phase of the Kelvin wave surfaces and brings the cooler waters up from the depths. So after the current down-welling wave finishes, I will wait to see if a new down-welling wave gets going somewhere west of the dateline. Westerly wind anomalies could help that to happen. Climatology points towards weakening to neutral and transition to La Nina, but time will tell.


Yes, I agree the next several weeks are key because if the CFS verifies for March then La-Nina will likely not happen this year. Again March/April are key to what could be coming for later this Summer into Fall.
Quoting 160. ElConando:



I did spot Tornado damage next to Northbound I-95 near Ives Dairy Road exit. It was mainly limited to downed and partially downed trees, as those trees are there to block I-95 from view next to a golf course. That's the second closest a Tornado has reached my place. The closest was when I lived with my folks and a EF0 briefly touched down a street away, knocking down a 60 year Oak Tree. It looked like it was only down for 500 feet or so.
The tornadoes there seemed to be the same type we had up here. They weren't on the ground continuously, and the strength and damage also waivered along the path, even when they were touching the ground. The difference is that there are about six zillion people in south Florida, at least half of whom appear to have a dash cam, so any kind of damage is going to be quickly reported and verified. Up here, there's a good chance these kinds of pulse storms are only going to knock over some trees out in the swamp, and the NWS guys aren't going traipsing around in gator country just to confirm a no big deal tornado. That video was hilarious though. Winding up that Mach 1 while driving through rain coming down so hard he couldn't even see the road, long before the tornado. Didn't notice that hurricane until it was right on top of him, and then thought he should drive really fast after the tornado had already gone by because, you know, it was fight or flight. I guess the money he thinks he will make from licensing this will be worth it compared to all his relatives, friends, and employer getting a great idea of what he's really like though.
Doug Kammerer ‏@dougkammerer 2h2 hours ago
06z GFS and 00z Euro are very similar with big totals from #DC west. DC looks to go from rain to #SNOW still lots of time to watch. LOTS
Quoting 192. Tazmanian:




i have been nic about this i has asking him 100s of times too please tone it down on the EL nino but now this is starting too get out of control with the same old same out maps posting and stuff and mods are not doing nothing about it vary poor moding going on with the mods
Look back the last two years, and you will have your answer. Let it go, his forecast will probably verify again in 2020, or so.
Quoting 193. NativeSun:

Looks like a Nina forming to me.
Did you go back and look at what the same models were saying last year at this time? That might give you an idea of how accurate they might be a year out in time now.
Quoting 189. tampabaymatt:



TWC is rampant with hype. Personally, I don't watch TWC as it resembles more of a TV show than weather forecasting. Models are pointing toward a front and associated surface low crossing FL next Tuesday, but it's way too soon to know how high the severe potential will be. I don't know if you watch Bay News 9, but I think the mets do a great job just telling it like it is.


Euro has 500mb temps @ -30C across FL Wednesday/Thursday so even after the severe weather potential and heavy rains Tuesday there will still be a chance for thunderstorms going into Thursday producing small hail due to the very cold air aloft which will over compensate for the low PWAT's. Either way very interesting set up next week.
Quoting 196. washingtonian115:

Doug Kammerer ‏@dougkammerer 2h2 hours ago
06z GFS and 00z Euro are very similar with big totals from #DC west. DC looks to go from rain to #SNOW still lots of time to watch. LOTS

12z GFS running now, will be interesting to see how it sets up this run.
201. bwi
From DC area NWS discussion:

BOTH GFS AND EURO BEGIN TO CARVE A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE DIGGING THE TROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT HEADS EAST NORTHEAST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE OPS IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARDS US. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTRY WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW
COLD AIR APPEARS LACKING HOWEVER...SO ODDS OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM
ARE NOT HIGH.
January CO2 January 2016: 402.52 ppm

January 2015: 399.96 ppm
This was the Euro from yesterday night.The storm last for 3 days apparently.
Quoting 203. washingtonian115:

This was the Euro from yesterday night.The storm last for 3 days apparently.



That's a big shift west from the previous run, isn't it?
Out to 138 hrs, definitely liking what I am seeing on the GFS at the surface with a 1028mb+ high pressure center around New England. The helps to keep cold air locked in place as the storm advances northward. Also the Great Lakes low seems to be farther north and weaker than the 00z run.
Quoting 204. 1Zach1:



That's a big shift west from the previous run, isn't it?
Its to be expected at this range but even a slight shift east would put D.C and surrounding areas in 2 feet + of snow.The ensembles weren't as far west though.I say give it to Sunday to really be concerned about any huge swings in track.
CANADA'S CAPITOL - NEW RECORD GREATEST 1-DAY SNOWFALL: The record all-time greatest 1-calendar-day snowfall at the Ottawa airport of 51.2 cm / 20.2" was on February 16, 2016. The previous record of 40.6 cm / 16.0" was set on March 2, 1947.

Link
Good Morning. On the tornado front, I have never been hit by one directly. Most I ever saw were about four in a 15 minute period to the West of US 1 (over swampland) driving with the parents from Key Largo to Homestead when I was about 12; must have been a very strong cell and I will always remember that. The one that went through downtown Miami in the 90's hit the parking lot several blocks from my building and blew out my car windows. Then I was in a house in Clermont during the great no-name storm in the early 90's; tornadoes did not actually hit my friends house but several touched down nearby; his back yard was a mess and several trees down for miles around his home from several. The most wind damage I ever saw, including tornadoes, was from Hurricane Andrew in 92.
The room is a great movie...
Quoting 205. Drakoen:

Out to 138 hrs, definitely liking what I am seeing on the GFS at the surface with a 1028mb+ high pressure center around New England. The helps to keep cold air locked in place as the storm advances northward. Also the Great Lakes low seems to be farther north and weaker than the 00z run.


Of course, as I say this, the GFS draws up a ton of warm air advection from the south and the New England high retreats.
Quoting 197. NativeSun:

Look back the last two years, and you will have your answer. Let it go, his forecast will probably verify again in 2020, or so.


ok my EL nino rant is over this will be a super LA nino
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 25m25 minutes ago
Top ECMWF EPS cluster indicating risk for the -NAO/-AO to pop in the late 11-15 day period.
I don't like this GFS run at all.......
Quoting 150. Neapolitan:

Well, a wise man knows that eyes can too easily be deceived. Which is, of course, why the NWS conducts on-site damage surveys; personal interpretations of video snippets found on social media are simply too unreliable to be of any use.

Anyway, speaking of video snippets, here's a dash cam video of the Broward tornado taken by a clueless driver who fails to see it as he unintentionally intercepts and plows into the funnel on Dixie Highway in Pompano (and announces that he's in a hurricane). REQUISITE WARNING: AUDIO CONTAINS VERY PROFANE COMMENTARY; YOU MAY WANT TO MUTE YOUR VOLUME BEFORE CLICKING THE LINK.


That video is disturbing. It shows a complete lack of situational awareness by not only driver of car with cam and other drivers as well: ignored heavy rain, power outage, flashes, and then driving into an actual tornado. After tornado passes, more bad driving decisions (through intersections with signals out and low visibility). If that tornado had been just a bit stronger, there would have been a lot of dead people. Amazing.
Quoting 213. 1Zach1:

I don't like this GFS run at all.......


Even though we had a building high from the west, the energy is too slow to eject out of the Plains region and allows for warm air advection to take over.
216. bwi
Too warm for snow here maybe, but the GFS does wind up a corker of an inland storm...
Looks like the GFS has it stalling over Maine? 30 to 40 inches in northern Maine!
I'll be waiting on the Euro to see if it agrees or not.
Quoting 218. washingtonian115:

I'll be waiting on the Euro to see if it agrees or not.


Well I'd be doing the happy dance if I still lived in Vermont. Sad days.
Quoting 187. StormTrackerScott:



TWC said their was 10 reports of tornadoes in the FLL/MIA area yesterday from a system no where near as strong as what is forecast for next week.
I agree that it is not hype. Only in the past few years have meteorologists begun to get a handle on just how unusually dangerous a strong El Niño can be for the southern tier of the US and most especially for Florida. It is a unique set of circumstances that does not happen that much, maybe once every fifteen years or so. But when it does, history shows that there are almost always deadly results and that there will be at least one extreme
severe Wx outbreak in or near Florida during a strong El Niño. Given all that and other mitigating circumstances such as ignorance amongst those in the general populace, apathy and the like, I would not call such an early warning as "hype."
Quoting 213. 1Zach1:

I don't like this GFS run at all.......
its strange, GFS and closely following it the CMC have the gulf LOW next week going into the panhandle area then northeastward...while the EURO has the Gulf Low down around SW florida then crossing florida and heading Northward up the east coast somewhat..too early yet and models will surely change I guess...im waiting for oh sunday night-early Mondays runs and see if most models agree on a track.
But not to fear! the GFS has another one a few days after.lololol.
Here are some of the Florida tornado stats (article from Oct 2015) for a strong El Nino year; not looking forward to the next few weeks if the models verify on a strong lower trajectory front with an embedded low:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/fl-dry-s eason-outlook-20151015-story.html


El Niño, normally South Florida's friend during hurricane season, could end up being a real troublemaker this winter.

Because it's already abnormally potent — and continuing to strengthen — El Niño could trigger severe weather outbreaks in this region, including strong thunderstorms and tornadoes, the National Weather Service said Thursday.

"There have been double the number of EF-1 or stronger tornadoes associated with past strong El Niños," said meteorologist Robert Molleda. "In many cases the winds are greater than 100 mph. These are the stronger, more damaging tornadoes."

Quoting 221. LargoFl:

its strange, GFS and closely following it the CMC have the gulf LOW next week going into the panhandle area then northeastward...while the EURO has the Gulf Low down around SW florida then crossing florida and heading Northward up the east coast somewhat..too early yet and models will surely change I guess...im waiting for oh sunday night-early Mondays runs and see if most models agree on a track.


The official forecast shows and 80% chance of thunderstorms for my area of the Panhandle Monday and Tuesday!
Quoting 220. FLWaterFront:

I agree that it is not hype. Only in the past few years have meteorologists begun to get a handle on just how unusually dangerous a strong El Niño can be for the southern tier of the US and most especially for Florida. It is a unique set of circumstances that does not happen that much, maybe once every fifteen years or so. But when it does, history shows that there are almost always deadly results and that there will be at least one extreme
severe Wx outbreak in or near Florida during a strong El Niño. Given all that and other mitigating circumstances such as ignorance amongst those in the general populace, apathy and the like, I would not call such an early warning as "hype."


Sorry but TWC forecasting a tornado outbreak for Fl a week out is hype. Yes, this El Niño has been brutal for south Florida with all kinds of severe weather. Yesterday proved it again. I don't see any reason for it to slow down so everyone should pay attention with the next system and probably the one after that - especially in South Fl. Having said that, it's still a week away.
Quoting 214. snow2fire:



That video is disturbing. It shows a complete lack of situational awareness by not only driver of car with cam and other drivers as well: ignored heavy rain, power outage, flashes, and then driving into an actual tornado. After tornado passes, more bad driving decisions (through intersections with signals out and low visibility). If that tornado had been just a bit stronger, there would have been a lot of dead people. Amazing.


That is a crazy video. Listening to his words, he had no clue what was going on.
We just have to see how the forecast pans out. Peninsular Florida is unique, and potentially dangerous during an El Nino Spring, because of so much warm air flowing over the State from the Gulf and Atlantic. When this combines with a strong frontal passage, or low trajectory Gulf low, the potential confluence of the cooler air behind the front/low (the baroclinic impact of the two colliding air masses) along with a split-jet pattern over sections of the State (the mid-level sheer levels) can produce a favorable environment for tornadic cells. Point being that trajectory of the low, and the relative position of the jet, are two big factors along with the issue of how much day-time heating, or relative lack of heating because of an advancing rain shield ahead of the front, is present as the system passes over the Peninsula on any given day. We just have to wait to see if all of these factors gel over Florida over the next few months in any given forecast period.

Quoting 226. Bucsboltsfan:



That is a crazy video. Listening to his words, he had no clue what was going on.


One of many future Darwin Award recipients ...
This rain coming tomorrow for California still looks good. Probably some flooding, nice coverage of just about all the state. Round two on Saturday maybe more just the north half of the state.

Here is the current GFS jet forecast, with the low to the North of Florida, for next Thursday; have to see what actually unfolds in terms of the final trajectory of the low relative to Florida.

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model
231. vis0

Quoting 188. washingtonian115:

I guarantee we have a large snow storm next week...Why? not because of the mets but because I was going up north next week for a trip and nature has a way of putting the breaks on my plans in winter.What is this curse that continuously follows me around like a bad odor! I haven't cancelled as I've held out hope that it will be a rain storm or just go out to sea all together.
"La Cruz de MaGoya!" (Father told me of this hex saying done to kids back while playing marbles in Puerto Rico)
Buddha be bless you
Eenie meenie miney mo (seniors version Eenie meenie OH myKnees mo)
i just do the Benny Hill SAHHH-LUTE.
Quoting 227. weathermanwannabe:

We just have to see how the forecast pans out. Peninsular Florida is unique, and potentially dangerous during an El Nino Spring, because of so much warm air flowing over the State from the Gulf and Atlantic. When this combines with a strong frontal passage, or low trajectory Gulf low, the potential confluence of the cooler air behind the front/low (the baroclinic impact of the two colliding air masses) along with a split-jet pattern over sections of the State (the mid-level sheer levels) can produce a favorable environment for tornadic cells. Point being that trajectory of the low, and the relative position of the jet, are two big factors along with the issue of how much day-time heating, or relative lack of heating because of an advancing rain shield ahead of the front, is present as the system passes over the Peninsula on any given day. We just have to wait to see if all of these factors gel over Florida over the next few months in any given forecast period.


What are your thoughts on why South Florida is experiencing a lot of severe weather (tornadoes) and a lot more rain than Central Florida?
Quoting 223. weathermanwannabe:

Here are some of the Florida tornado stats (article from Oct 2015) for a strong El Nino year; not looking forward to the next few weeks if the models verify on a strong lower trajectory front with an embedded low:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/fl-dry-s eason-outlook-20151015-story.html


El Niño, normally South Florida's friend during hurricane season, could end up being a real troublemaker this winter.

Because it's already abnormally potent — and continuing to strengthen — El Niño could trigger severe weather outbreaks in this region, including strong thunderstorms and tornadoes, the National Weather Service said Thursday.

"There have been double the number of EF-1 or stronger tornadoes associated with past strong El Niños," said meteorologist Robert Molleda. "In many cases the winds are greater than 100 mph. These are the stronger, more damaging tornadoes."

yes each storm system we in florida really do need to stay alert,early this week was a great lesson,even fooled local mets which thought out in the gulf it would weaken due to colder water..but..as soon as it hit land it got stronger and more potent.
Quoting 228. JNFlori30A:




One of many future Darwin Award recipients ...


If my mom were alive and heard that video she would want to wash that mouth out with soap.
Quoting 232. Bucsboltsfan:



What are your thoughts on why South Florida is experiencing a lot of severe weather (tornadoes) and a lot more rain than Central Florida?


No scientific thoughts; will just note from 55 years in Florida that the worst tornado outbreaks I have seen in the State during El Nino years usually occur in the Central part of the State. You get some on the West coast area as the cells move in, you usually get some stronger tornadoes in Central Florida (Orlando to Gainesville area, etc.) then another batch of weaker ones on the East Coast from Miami all the way up to the St. Augustine region.

The rain is usually a mixed bag with more/equal coverage across most of the State.............Just my personal observation.
Quoting 235. weathermanwannabe:



No scientific thoughts; will just note from 55 years in Florida that the worst tornado outbreaks I have seen in the State during El Nino years usually occur in the Central part of the State. You get some on the West coast area as the cells move in, you usually get some stronger tornadoes in Central Florida (Orlando to Gainesville area, etc.) then another batch of weaker ones on the East Coast from Miami all the way up to the St. Augustine region.

The rain is usually a mixed bag with more/equal coverage across most of the State.............Just my personal observation.


Thx, these storms seem to really energize as the approach south fl.
Quoting 202. Patrap:

January CO2 January 2016: 402.52 ppm

January 2015: 399.96 ppm
500 ppm by 2030...jmo
Quoting 231. vis0:


"La Cruz de MaGoya!" (Father told me of this hex saying done to kids back while playing marbles in Puerto Rico)
Buddha be bless you
Eenie meenie miney mo (seniors version Eenie meenie OH myKnees mo)
i just do the Benny Hill SAHHH-LUTE.


There is only one reply possible to this:

NASA's GEOS-5 may have the snow on the backside of the storm more than the GFS. The coastal areas get a little as it passes after a drenching of rain, with highest snow totals being inland. Isn't really calling for super severe weather across FL with it yet either. Super disturbing though (except this is so far out)..is the freeze line dipping way south of me in Central FL for Thursday afternoon..


Quoting 240. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 may have the snow on the backside of the storm more than the GFS. The coastal areas get a little as it passes after a drenching of rain, with highest snow totals being inland. Isn't really calling for super severe weather across FL with it yet either. Super disturbing though (except this is so far out)..is the freeze line dipping way south of me in Central FL for Thursday afternoon..



Does this model perform better than the other models? To be honest, I see zero mention of this model anywhere except for your posts, so I'm wondering what you like about it relative to the other main models.
245. bwi
EC 12z positioning not bad and pressure low, but cold air lacking?
From CWG

The 12z op GFS puts a low/elongated trough near Ontario, splitting and fouling up the potential drainage of cold Canadian air. It splits the highs east and west. Neither the op Euro, or GFS ens and Euro ens means do this. All three of these keep a pretty stout shelf of high pressure in Canada. That acts as a block (slows down the coastal) and it helps maintain a cold air feed on the backside of the low. I'll take 3 vs. 1 any day.
Quoting 247. washingtonian115:




That's right, start heading on back east!
Quoting 235. weathermanwannabe:



No scientific thoughts; will just note from 55 years in Florida that the worst tornado outbreaks I have seen in the State during El Nino years usually occur in the Central part of the State. You get some on the West coast area as the cells move in, you usually get some stronger tornadoes in Central Florida (Orlando to Gainesville area, etc.) then another batch of weaker ones on the East Coast from Miami all the way up to the St. Augustine region.

The rain is usually a mixed bag with more/equal coverage across most of the State.............Just my personal observation.
The Central Florida area from Orlando and northward does seem to be the bulls eye for severe weather outbreaks during strong El Niño years. I imagine it has something to do with the inland location and how that relates to instability factors, converging air currents and so on. Southeast Florida can also see enhanced tornado activity, especially when a low pressure system passes from west to east further south than usual, such as over the Central peninsula.
Quoting 214. snow2fire:



That video is disturbing. It shows a complete lack of situational awareness by not only driver of car with cam and other drivers as well: ignored heavy rain, power outage, flashes, and then driving into an actual tornado. After tornado passes, more bad driving decisions (through intersections with signals out and low visibility). If that tornado had been just a bit stronger, there would have been a lot of dead people. Amazing.
I agree that this video, which shows a driver driving almost directly into the Broward tornado of yesterday is most disturbing.

Reading though the man's own youtube comments regarding his experience, he clearly tries to excuse his obvious ignorance by claiming that he was "paying too close attention to the road because of the rain" to see the tornado. I am not buying it. He shows abhorrent driving skills to say nothing of complete disregard for what were obviously unusually dangerous conditions. And on top of all that, he says that he has lived in Florida since 1986, but somehow he doesn't even know the difference between a tornado and a hurricane. I'm not sure how that is possible but whatever, it is scary to think there are people like him on the roads.
Quoting 249. 1Zach1:



That's right, start heading on back east!


Like the Blizzard
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
N.W D.C sees a foot plus from this storm.This storm will have lots of moisture with it and if the high keeps pumping cold air in we may have the wife of Snowzilla next week.
Quoting 62. vis0:
Do they wears masks in Europe when Saharan dusts come by?

No, VisO, we don't. But now and then a little dance for rain, this may happen :-)

Swedish island officials dance to make rain. Doesn't work.
The Local (Sweden), Published: 17 Feb 2016 13:01 GMT+01:00
Politicians from Öland gathered for a rain dance this week in a bid to battle the island’s worst drought in years. ...
Quoting 243. tampabaymatt:



Does this model perform better than the other models? To be honest, I see zero mention of this model anywhere except for your posts, so I'm wondering what you like about it relative to the other main models.

I find it pretty accurate at times. It certainly is a nice guide to look at along with other models. It is unique in that it's a global model and a mesoscale model at the same time, it also takes into consideration a variety of pollutants and aerosols & how they interact with weather.. I would have never forecast that worst ever air pollution coming to China a few months back with the GFS or ECMWF..

It's been a while since I compared them & just about all have been upgraded since but it's always been comparable or better than the major models with computer power, depth through the atmosphere, resolution & such.

This is the simplistic description..GEOS-5 is just one aspect of GMAO. Here is a more in depth description.

Global Mesoscale Modeling

Current computing capacity enables GMAO to simulate the entire globe at spatial resolutions previously only possible with regional models. These "global mesoscale model" simulations serve for forefront evaluations of model performance and form the basis for Observing System Simulation Experiments.

Alongside the need to predict weather at fine, localized scales, global mesoscale modeling has two main applications in the GMAO. First, it is essential for NASA to be able to simulate existing and future types of observations with a resolution that is close to the footprint size of the satellite instruments. GMAO's activities in this area include application of global mesoscale models to simulate the atmospheric state with fine spatio-temporal detail. This applies to representations of weather, such as winds, clouds, and precipitation, as well as to the distributions of atmospheric pollutants. Second, as increased computing power routinely allows the use of models with finer spatial resolution and physical complexity, GMAO is pioneering the use of ultra-high-resolution global mesoscale models.

Testing the fidelity of these models today is one step towards the evaluation of the systems that will be in routine use for weather forecasting within the next five to ten years. One aspect of this work is the application of high-resolution versions of GEOS-5 to "climate downscaling" which has typically been performed using regional models.


The GFS does go out farther in time (for daily weather), it is run more often and GEOS-5 is run more in the rears with it initializing in real time on real conditions, but isn't published near as soon. (The GFS & ECMWF 00Z run comes out hours sooner than the same run on GEOS-5.)

NASA overall has to observe the earth to get to space. They have created an incredible model that has various products like ENSO & seasonal but then there is others, many of which gfs & ecmwf couldn't begin to put out. It's NASA, so essentially it's used by NASA for various needs and not by NOAA for forecasting, though there is some joint development with NOAA on this. Redundancy in government tends to get looked over for slashing. So overall the purposes for both can't be the same and they aren't. It is a little more experimental/cutting edge and for research than gfs & ECMWF, though NASA uses it's weather model in forecasting for it's facilities, launch needs and such. And like stated they are essentially testing things with this model they expect to implement into the major weather models in 5-10years, Usually it isn't included in mass model verification except for ENSO forecasting, so I can't really show you a graph showing exactly how it compares on all fronts to the others. I like to bring it here because I think it's a useful compliment to what others bring and to compare it to the other models.

Didn't really seem like the GFS or ECMWF did this good on the 2005 hurricane season even from a few weeks out. In the related media below it is a link to CO2 modeling which our other models don't make forecasts for. In ways it's in a different league or class of models.

Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5): Nature Run

Published on Dec 1, 2013 by Universe Odyssey
This visualization shows a Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) run of the 2005 Hurricane Season driven by Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). The simulation was seeded at the beginning of the run and then ran on its own to create the 6 months of output visualized here. What's interesting is that even though the model did not perfectly duplicate all 27 storms from that very active 2005 hurricane season, it does show 23 storms during that same period. Considering this was an anomalous year, the model did a good job of simulating the large number of storms for that season. An innovative aspect of this global model is the ability to represent realistic hurricane intensities, including 6 hurricanes in the Atlantic for 2005 reaching major strength (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). This finding could help shape future climate models in predicting hurricane season intensities.

Ocean colors ranging from blue to orange depict air temperatures 2 meters (T2M) above sea level. Since SSTs are typically measured at sea level and below, the T2M model output behaves somewhat differently. Nonetheless, it is a reasonable proxy to SST. Landcover information is taken from the Next Generation Blue Marble dataset. Sea Ice is depicted as solid white and clouds are shades of white.

Related Media

A Year In The Life Of Earth%u2019s CO2 (Carbon Dioxyde):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vN3E...

Completed: November 22, 2011

Animators: Alex Kekesi (GST) (Lead)
Greg Shirah (NASA/GSFC)
Scientist: William Putman (NASA/GSFC)

Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Quoting 243. tampabaymatt:



Does this model perform better than the other models? To be honest, I see zero mention of this model anywhere except for your posts, so I'm wondering what you like about it relative to the other main models.
GEOS-5 was developed by the NASA's Goddard Research Center. It was developed primarily to look at high resolution satellite data for climate and environmental research rather than weather forecasting. It does have a forecasting component, but it's still experimental, which is why you don't see it mentioned in NWS discussions. It's only been out a little over a year in its present form. I have yet to find any kind of validation data for the forecasting component. The following is a disclaimer at the bottom of every forecast map, and it's a good idea to keep the model's limitations in mind.

"Please note that these predictions are experimental and are produced for research purposes only. Use of these forecasts for purposes other than research is not recommended."

According to WU, this is good for about 2 tenths of an inch.
I had to email the station to get them to update this graphic,
they were a whole 7 days behind. They did it minutes after my email. sweet.
Could somebody explain to me how,during the winter kinetic energy is transferred to the ocean,usually around cape Hatteras,resulting in a low pressure system. Is it retated to the topography. This energy transferred has me baffled. Dr. S.