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Moist Flow Sweeping Out Record Arctic Blast over the Northeast

By: Bob Henson 10:00 PM GMT on February 15, 2016

A winter’s worth of cold seemed to be stuffed into this President’s Day weekend across the eastern United States. The most frigid air in years--in some places, in decades--swept across much of the Northeast from Friday into Sunday. Borne on strong northwest winds, the Arctic air had little chance to modify, which allowed subzero readings to penetrate virtually all of New England, including Nantucket Island and Provincetown, MA--a rare occurrence even in this chilly corner of the United States. Crisp sunshine allowed a feeble recovery on Sunday, but the bigger shift began on Monday with the gradual organization of a major inland storm. A precipitation shield extending from the mid-Atlantic to New England began as snow but will transition to freezing rain in many areas and eventually to heavy rain by Tuesday, as the freezing line whips northward (it was already through the D.C. area by late Monday). Further south, multiple tornadoes were reported on Monday afternoon along the central Gulf Coast as several supercell thunderstorms spun up within a larger region of severe weather.

The area most at risk of prolonged, serious icing, according to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, is a strip from central PA to central NY. West of the surface low, this event should deliver mostly light to moderate snow from the mid-Appalachians across western PA and NY (heaviest over western NY, where more than a foot is possible). As of late Monday, winter storm watches and warnings were plastered from northeast Georgia to Maine.

Meanwhile, Westerners are asking “What winter?”, as springlike conditions work their way eastward from California. Beneath a stout upper-level ridge, southern California is pleasantly warm but unnervingly dry, while forecasters in Phoenix, AZ, are projecting that Wednesday could be the city’s earliest 90°F day on record by a full week.


Figure 1. This striking visible satellite image from Sunday, Feb. 14, 2016, shows cloud streamers forming offshore--the result of instability produced by cold air flowing off the northeast U.S. coast onto warm Atlantic waters. The most prominent streamers are downstream of bays that allow more moisture to be concentrated into the developing bands. Image credit: NASA Worldview, courtesy Tom Niziol, The Weather Channel.

Saturday night in the deep freeze
When a cold air mass invades a region, record-low daytime highs can occur when cloud cover keeps the sun out by day, and clear skies can allow temperatures to plummet to record lows at night once a cold air mass is entrenched. This weekend, the cold air was anything but entrenched: it ripped through the region, which made the arrival and departure of the air mass more important than any local warming and cooling. The depth of the cold air was especially evident at higher elevations. The radiosonde launched at Albany, NY, at 7:00 pm EST Saturday night observed a temperature at the 850-mb level (about a mile above sea level) of -30.8°C (-23.4°F). This was among the lowest readings observed at this height for any Albany radiosonde since routine upper-air observations began in 1948.


Figure 2. Temperature, dew point, and wind chill at the summit weather station operated by the Mount Washington [NH] Observatory on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016. Readings bottomed out on Saturday evening at -40°F before a steady warm-up began that continued through Sunday and into Monday. (The -40°F reading is not apparent on this trace but was tweeted by MWO.) The last time Mt. Washington was any colder than -40°F was on Jan. 15, 2004, when the site dipped to -45°F. Wind chills on Saturday evening approached -80°F. Image credit: Mount Washington Observatory.


New York City’s major observational sites all set record daily lows on Sunday morning. Central Park made it down to -1°F, while LaGuardia and JFK airports got down to 1°F and Newark hit 0°F. Islip, on central Long Island, made it down to 0°F, the coldest Islip has been outside of January since records began there in 1984. Bridgeport, CT, set a new monthly record low with -6°F; records there began in 1948. Most stations with century-long datasets saw their monthly records unchallenged.

Boston (Logan International Airport) dipped to -9°F on Sunday morning and clawed its way back up to 12°F by evening. As noted by Phil Klotzbach (CSU), those were the coldest daily minimum and maximum temperatures observed so late in the year in Boston since Feb. 15, 1943. The last time Boston and Worcester got as cold as they did on Sunday was in 1957.

We’ll have our next post by midday Tuesday. WU contributor Steve Gregory has a new Monday post that looks in depth at the factors that will bring springlike weather later this week, but with plenty of uncertainty beyond that.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Low temperatures across southern New England on Sun., Feb. 14, 2016 (degrees °F). Image credit: NWS/Taunton, MA.


Figure 4. From Highland, MI, Jeff Masters reports: “We had our coldest night of the winter Sunday morning, bottoming out at -13°F. The plot from my PWS on Sunday looked remarkably like a step function.”


Winter Weather Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks but what about the severe weather threat?
Ye! Ha! We made 38 degrees here today! If this keeps up, we should see 50 by Friday. Welcome to Sioux Falls Spring.

waiting for early bird hurricane seasonal forecast
Thanks Mr. Henson; an argument could be made that the anomalous warm waters in the Gulf Stream off-shore contributed some additional Atlantic warmth to the streamer issue:


Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 403 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
ATMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...CENTURY...FLOMATON...RIVERVIEW...
POLLARD...I65 AND AL 41...I65 AND AL 21 AND I65 AND AL 113.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

Instructions: REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.
Target Area:
Escambia
Quoting 1. IKE:

Thanks but what about the severe weather threat?


I'm actually surprised TWC (with Dr. Forbes) is covering the current severe weather and not showing one of their non-current weather programs (like that show about wrecker trucks, etc).
I appreciate it.
except 92 florida got lucky francis and all the others could of been way worse
Everyone stay safe this evening and stay tuned to Noaa radio if you see heavy t-storms coming your way; heading home North of Tally to walk the dog before the rains come in.................See Yall in the am.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 226 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 323 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 410 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 405 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 404 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 359 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
There are some heavy duty storms with this line. Almost the length of the line from Mobile to Montgomery has warnings, with a tornado warning already noted near Brewton and another very obvious hook echo causing a tornado warning east of Montgomery, over Pike Road. Further east in Eufaula, the wind is still blowing from 15 to 30 mph, but the temperature has dropped from 71 to 66 due to clouds finally moving in. It actually feels chilly out in the wind. The line has slowed down over the last couple of hours so now it's just creeping in my direction.
floridas been lucky sorry panhandle folks but you had your share
14. IKE
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
WESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 428 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEATRICE TO URIAH TO NEAR I65 AND AL 225 TO
NEAR GULF PARK ESTATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBILE...PRICHARD...FOLEY...SARALAND...ATMORE...B AY MINETTE...
MONROEVILLE...SATSUMA...CHICKASAW...ROBERTSDALE.. .BAYOU LA BATRE AND
CREOLA.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.
Target Area:
Escambia
357  
WFUS54 KMOB 152231  
TORMOB  
ALC013-035-039-041-053-152315-  
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0014.160215T2231Z-160215T2315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
431 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
NORTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 515 PM CST  
 
* AT 430 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF US 29 AND CR 43...OR 13 MILES SOUTH  
OF EVERGREEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 DAMAGED
Thanks for the Update....
More to come in Tide country probably

Special-Needs NOAA Weather Radio
for Deaf and Hard-of-Hearing Individuals



By: Portlight , 3:18 PM CST on February 15, 2016 El Nino and what to expect late winter and spring. Weather Alert Radios for the Hearing and Visually Impaired

The special-needs NOAA Weather Radio has recently been designed to adapt to the needs of the deaf and hard-of-hearing community.
GFS, GEFS, and the ECMWF EPS have continued to suggest another possible snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic around the 25th. Definitely bears watching.
Do I go to my 8 AM tomorrow or not, Mr. LL [Cool] J?

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW ABOVE FREEZING THE FOCUS
TURNS TO THE COASTAL FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM AND
GFS ARE SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
BASICALLY AFTER 06 UTC AND INTENSIFYING AROUND 09 UTC WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS
USUALLY THE TROUBLESOME COMPONENT OF THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY WITH MOST BEING
ELEVATED.
THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN BUFKIT IS HINTING THAT THE
INVERSION WILL STAY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AS THE WIND GUST DURING
THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ONLY PRODUCES WIND GUST IN
THE 20 KT RANGE. SO AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT IF THE
INVERSION DOES BREAK.

Quoting 20. Drakoen:

GFS, GEFS, and the ECMWF EPS have continued to suggest another possible snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic around the 25th. Definitely bears watching.
GFS showed nearly two feet.I guess you all can thank me as I have a trip next week to Rhode Island.That's not to say things can't change from now until then.I'm not sure what this curse is,is that when I plan on going north a winter storm occurs.The game is getting old nature.

I hope this picture is not of topic
Tornado that went through Century Fl. as it headed towards Brewton Al. Report claims people trapped in homes
<>img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
UPDATE: Tornado destroys Century houses
From staff reports, pnj.com 5:18 p.m. CST February 15, 2016

Highway 29 at County Road 164 has been closed to traffic. Officials are redirecting people in that area.

5:08 p.m. UPDATE:

Escambia County issued the following news release:

"The National Weather Service in Mobile, Ala., has confirmed a tornado touchdown near Century. Escambia County Fire Rescue and EMS have been dispatched to the scene. So far we know that several houses have been destroyed. Emergency crews are attempting to access affected homes. We have heard reports of entrapment but they have not been confirmed yet."

Areas believed to be impacted are: the 6500 and 6800 blocks of Jefferson Avenue, 10 Tedder Road, 4300 block of McCrary, 7600 block of Mayo St., all in the Century area.

"Community and Media Relations personnel are en route and will send notification when a media area has been established."

"Escambia County Public Works crews are assisting the town of Century with debris removal."

Jerry Kindle, executive director of the American Red Cross of Northwest Florida, said he is mobilizing staff and resources to head toward the affected areas in northern Escambia County.

4:27 p.m. UPDATE:

The Gulf Power Outage map reports that more than 800 people are without power in Century and Bluff Springs. Crews are on their way to restore power.

Orleans Parish

Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings
Special Statement
Issued: 4:55 PM CST Feb. 15, 2016 National Weather Service

... Thunderstorms producing pea size hail south of Lake
Pontchartrain...

At 454 PM CST... a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Violet to near Luling to Schriever... and moving south
at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans... Houma... Thibodaux... Harvey... Cut off... Avondale...
Marrero... Timberlane... LaRose... Belle Chasse... Hahnville... Port
Sulphur... Jefferson... Gretna... Harahan... Westwego... Lockport... Jean
Lafitte... LaFitte and St. Rose.

Lat... Lon 2936 9082 2976 9095 2996 9033 2995 9001
2955 8970 2956 8999 2960 8998 2963 9000
time... Mot... loc 2254z 339deg 21kt 2989 8990 2990 9031 2973 9085



455 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2016
Quoting 24. WDEmobmet:

Tornado that went through Century Fl. as it headed towards Brewton Al. Report claims people trapped in homes
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
I haven't heard of anyone trapped from that storm, but I'm not hearing as much from the ham repeaters down there as usual either. The line still has some embedded strong storms and some tornadoes in it. The storms are intensifying a bit as they move east since the atmosphere here hasn't been worked over. The winds continue quite strong in front f the line with 20 mph average and gusts to 30 mph. Looks like another hour before it gets to me. I need to go out and get some Chinese before it gets here. You have to keep your priorities straight. :-)
Was near Straughn community, saw the tornado coming and fled south to Andalusia, AL. There was a woman stuck in a trailer but she got out. Tornado was on the ground near Red Level, AL. Just had the line pass through power was out but is now back. Tried to take some videos but it was so rough that I couldn't get to a safe place.
Quoting 22. washingtonian115:

GFS showed nearly two feet.I guess you all can thank me as I have a trip next week to Rhode Island.That's not to say things can't change from now until then.I'm not sure what this curse is,is that when I plan on going north a winter storm occurs.The game is getting old nature.

I hope this picture is not of topic
Since that would be late February at that point, the snow would be heavy and wet unless it is cold to make it really fluffy.
Quoting 29. Tcwx2:

Was near Straughn community, saw the tornado coming and fled south to Andalusia, AL. There was a woman stuck in a trailer but she got out. Tornado was on the ground near Red Level, AL. Just had the line pass through power was out but is now back. Tried to take some videos but it was so rough that I couldn't get to a safe place.
I'm glad to hear you made it out OK.
33. JRRP
Quoting 480. CaribBoy:



Does the Euro show a dry Caribbean and MDR during the peak of the hurricane season with LA NINA in the Pacific ?

If yes, I really don't know what to think about that.... :(


at least this doesn't look like 2015
The line is about a half hour west of me. Very impressive line, with warnings from the Panhandle all the way up to north of Montgomery. The storms are definitely getting strong as they approach. Several tornado vortex signatures are now on radar almost directly west of me on this line. Time to wolf down my Chinese before this whole mess gets here.
Today seems to have been an awfully prominent severe day for a slight risk event, I suspect it's because this system is more vigorous in terms of dynamics and wind fields than guidance had suggested. The NWS in Tallahassee mentions this as well that severe parameters have evolved to be more impressive than model depictions. Just the other day, models had trended much weaker, than rebounded stronger last night, but not quite enough.
Quoting 34. sar2401:

The line is about a half hour west of me. Very impressive line, with warnings from the Panhandle all the way up to north of Montgomery. The storms are definitely getting strong as they approach. Several tornado vortex signatures are now on radar almost directly west of me on this line. Time to wolf down my Chinese before this whole mess gets here.


Yeah it looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride in your area this evening, that's a potent line of thunderstorms and a severe weather looks to be a decent bet in your area. The chances of tornadoes should drop a bit as we head into the evening due to a bit weaker instability with the loss of heating and shear profiles veering a bit more linear. This can be seen by convective modes switching from more cellular to more of a linear squall line. Severe parameters will still support a chance of tornadoes though, so it can't be ruled out.

South Central Mississippi got slammed today.
38. JRRP
Buckle up Sar you are in for a ride! Trees and power lines down everywhere. Still waiting on damage reports.
Quoting 34. sar2401:

The line is about a half hour west of me. Very impressive line, with warnings from the Panhandle all the way up to north of Montgomery. The storms are definitely getting strong as they approach. Several tornado vortex signatures are now on radar almost directly west of me on this line. Time to wolf down my Chinese before this whole mess gets here.
Evening all. We got pretty chilly here as well on the weekend .... down into upper 50s at one point.

Today was windier than it has been for a while, but not super cold. With more cloud cover tonight, we're not likely to be so cold overnight tonight either here in Nassau. I'm watching this area of unsettled wx passing through FL ... not sure if we'll see any rain from it, though there are chances in our forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

Quoting 30. win1gamegiantsplease:


Looks like parts of S. GA and N FL may be under the gun as the night progresses ....
Freezing mist, 29. 3" of snow.
Quoting 37. Jedkins01:



Yeah it looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride in your area this evening, that's a potent line of thunderstorms and a severe weather looks to be a decent bet in your area. The chances of tornadoes should drop a bit as we head into the evening due to a bit weaker instability with the loss of heating and shear profiles veering a bit more linear. This can be seen by convective modes switching from more cellular to more of a linear squall line. Severe parameters will still support a chance of tornadoes though, so it can't be ruled out.

South Central Mississippi got slammed today.
The line has gotten skinnier but not less severe as it has come east. I think the tornado potential has decreasesdbut not severe storms and straight line winds. I'll know for sure in about 20 minutes or so as the line is about 10 miles west. Already hearing reports of trees down blocking roads in the western part of the county where the line has gone through.
Odd storm here outside of North Wilkesboro, NC. Sitting at 26 with damaging ice. Picked up a little over 3" of snow...some sleet...and a few tenths of an inch of ice. The IP showers earlier were crazy...almost like a hail storm at one point...low visibility heavy freezing rain mixed with pieces of ice. When rates are light, snow flurries start breaking out at the surface. I can't really explain that because 850's are not supportive.

Looking west...it's either going to flood here big time or the lights are going out soon.

When I was young I can only remember one storm that produced puddles of water on top of the ice. I may get to see that again...with runoff of water going down the sled trails. Crazy!
Hmmm .... this seems to suggest we won't see much wx until tomorrow afternoon and evening .....

I have always enjoyed and learned from his Miami NWS discussion posts...

THIS CLOSES OUT MY FINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE NWS MIAMI-
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AS I WILL BE TRANSFERRING TO
NWS SAN DIEGO. FROM HURRICANES TO FLOODS TO TORNADOES AND
MORE...IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE SERVING THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH FLORIDA!
/GREGORIA
Pressure might bottom out to near 29.7" tomorrow morning. Dew point basically matching the air temp by that time. Usually these storms don't have the same punch out here but the local discussion mentioned the possibility of severe storms. Flooding could be a real issue near the NE Cape Fear and the Waccamaw River in Horry County (Conway).

Quoting 34. sar2401:

The line is about a half hour west of me. Very impressive line, with warnings from the Panhandle all the way up to north of Montgomery. The storms are definitely getting strong as they approach. Several tornado vortex signatures are now on radar almost directly west of me on this line. Time to wolf down my Chinese before this whole mess gets here.


I spent a ridiculous amount of money on Chinese the last two weeks, enough to get stamps on a card so that next time I get $5 off. Which will probably be used this weekend.
Quoting 46. win1gamegiantsplease:

Pressure might bottom out to near 29.7" tomorrow morning. Dew point basically matching the air temp by that time. Usually these storms don't have the same punch out here but the local discussion mentioned the possibility of severe storms. Flooding could be a real issue near the NE Cape Fear and the Waccamaw River in Horry County (Conway).



I spent a ridiculous amount of money on Chinese the last two weeks, enough to get stamps on a card so that next time I get $5 off. Which will probably be used this weekend.
You're making me jealous!
Quoting 40. BahaHurican:

Evening all. We got pretty chilly here as well on the weekend .... down into upper 50s at one point.

Today was windier than it has been for a while, but not super cold. With more cloud cover tonight, we're not likely to be so cold overnight tonight either here in Nassau. I'm watching this area of unsettled wx passing through FL ... not sure if we'll see any rain from it, though there are chances in our forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

Looks like parts of S. GA and N FL may be under the gun as the night progresses ....


Pretty chilly...upper 50's...lol. Seeing people in windbreakers and gloves in Miami in February while I wore short-sleeves made me look like a man with a fork in a world of soup. Though I'll say it got that cool at the beach one night and I wouldn't have minded a light jacket with the wind.

And judging by the radar straight-line winds are becoming a larger threat than the tornadoes, the atmosphere surely could hold one with how much sun they were able to get before the clouds started building but maybe not as much shear further east as there was in the bayou/MS. The further east these storms move it seems they don't have as much energy to work with. We get off the hook a lot. Not always, but a lot. Especially the closer you get to the Appalachians.
Will today be considered a tornado outbreak?
Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

You're making me jealous!


Sorry. Maybe this will help.



:p
That was a strange squall line. Pretty strong storms until the line was about eight miles away. All of a sudden, all the high reflectivity storms started to fade, the purple turned red, and then the red turned yellow. Very little lightning associated with the line, but strong winds. My high gust was 38 mph. There was kind of a rain blizzard for a couple of minutes, with the rain blowing sideways. The line is moving at 55 mph, so the whole thing was over in 20 minutes, and I only got 0.50" of rain. At the same time the line by me was weakening, a tornado occured up in Russell County, about 20 miles north of me. There are reports of trees down and some property damage all over the place. It seems this line has a lot of pulse type storms, intensifying then weakening quickly. Things could have been worse if the line was a slow mover or the instability parameters had been worse.
Quoting 49. Tcwx2:

Will today be considered a tornado outbreak?
I doubt it. There are only 1`7 tornado reports at the SPC, some of which are duplicates from the same tornado. The geographical area wasn't large, and I don't think we'll see any tornadoes greater than EF-2.
Quoting 44. BahaHurican:

Hmmm .... this seems to suggest we won't see much wx until tomorrow afternoon and evening .....


With the speed the front is moving through here I'd think it will be over you by maybe 10:00 tomorrow morning or so.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 836 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 428 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 828 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 622 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 814 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 714 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 808 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 658 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 602 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 645 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 644 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 537 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 428 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 622 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 621 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 619 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 602 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 559 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 550 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 546 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 537 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 431 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
Quoting 53. sar2401:

With the speed the front is moving through here I'd think it will be over you by maybe 10:00 tomorrow morning or so.


Local mets here in Tampa are saying it will be a short duration system. It will be gone before we wake up. Could see a few gusty winds and most areas should see less than 1/2" rain.
Glad to hear you escaped the worst of it Sar. Unfortunately due to the placement of my weather station wind was blocked from it and couldn't be properly recorded. However, our trampoline was flipped on its side, not flying away because it was tied to a tree. I saw limbs in places that never have limbs. Will wait to asses all of the damage tomorrow. Too dark right now.
Quoting 51. sar2401:

That was a strange squall line. Pretty strong storms until the line was about eight miles away. All of a sudden, all the high reflectivity storms started to fade, the purple turned red, and then the red turned yellow. Very little lightning associated with the line, but strong winds. My high gust was 38 mph. There was kind of a rain blizzard for a couple of minutes, with the rain blowing sideways. The line is moving at 55 mph, so the whole thing was over in 20 minutes, and I only got 0.50" of rain. At the same time the line by me was weakening, a tornado occured up in Russell County, about 20 miles north of me. There are reports of trees down and some property damage all over the place. It seems this line has a lot of pulse type storms, intensifying then weakening quickly. Things could have been worse if the line was a slow mover or the instability parameters had been worse.
For dinner I had baked frog legs.I was surprised how the frog legs came out tastier than the baked chicken.I'll need to make a stew out of these during the next cold outbreak.
Here's some video of the Tornado that went through Escambia County Florida today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7j8PzTlIm8
Quoting 58. washingtonian115:

For dinner I had baked frog legs.I was surprised how the frog legs came out tastier than the baked chicken.I'll need to make a stew out of these during the next cold outbreak.


I'll eat frog legs as long as the person serving me tells me its chicken.
Quoting 51. sar2401:

That was a strange squall line. Pretty strong storms until the line was about eight miles away. All of a sudden, all the high reflectivity storms started to fade, the purple turned red, and then the red turned yellow. Very little lightning associated with the line, but strong winds. My high gust was 38 mph. There was kind of a rain blizzard for a couple of minutes, with the rain blowing sideways. The line is moving at 55 mph, so the whole thing was over in 20 minutes, and I only got 0.50" of rain. At the same time the line by me was weakening, a tornado occured up in Russell County, about 20 miles north of me. There are reports of trees down and some property damage all over the place. It seems this line has a lot of pulse type storms, intensifying then weakening quickly. Things could have been worse if the line was a slow mover or the instability parameters had been worse.
Maybe its the Eufaula rain shield in action?
Wow, big weather day all over, batten down the hatches! Another 2.25" of rain and counting here in Acme wa, almost 6" in the last 4 days. Minor creek flooding all over, lots of roads closed, but would be a lot worse if snow levels hadnt stuck at 4000'. Over 6000' and the rivers would be over also. Couple of landslide reports. 45° pretty much all day, hip hip horay.
Quoting 57. Tcwx2:

Glad to hear you escaped the worst of it Sar. Unfortunately due to the placement of my weather station wind was blocked from it and couldn't be properly recorded. However, our trampoline was flipped on its side, not flying away because it was tied to a tree. I saw limbs in places that never have limbs. Will wait to asses all of the damage tomorrow. Too dark right now.
There are many reports of trees down blocking roads here along with powerlines down. It looks like Russel and Pike counties had tornadoes as well. The local VFD's do a good job clearing the roads though. They love to saw things up with their chainsaws. Unless there's some structure damage, there probably won't be much to see in daylight.
Quoting 61. Geoboy645:

Maybe its the Eufaula rain shield in action?
Could be. It was pretty amazing to watch though. The line still had severe storms north and south of me when the line that went through here faded out. It's not the first time this has happened either. Weird.
Quoting 60. Bucsboltsfan:



I'll eat frog legs as long as the person serving me tells me its chicken.


Haven't tried em yet, but I would rate gator way above kangaroo on the tastyness scale :-)
Quoting 64. sar2401:

Could be. It was pretty amazing to watch though. The line still had severe storms north and south of me when the line that went through here faded out. It's not the first time this has happened either. Weird.
Maybe the rain shield is caused by you're lake? It would make sense as the lake since it has more moisture and is probably big enough for a cooling effect.
Quoting 60. Bucsboltsfan:



I'll eat frog legs as long as the person serving me tells me its chicken.
I first when I saw frog legs fried I said those chicken drum sticks looked weird.lol but when you bite down you'll definitely know its not chicken.
Quoting 65. plantmoretrees:



Haven't tried em yet, but I would rate gator way above kangaroo on the tastyness scale :-)
Gator is pretty good actually.
Quoting 56. Bucsboltsfan:



Local mets here in Tampa are saying it will be a short duration system. It will be gone before we wake up. Could see a few gusty winds and most areas should see less than 1/2" rain.
That would be consistent with what I saw here. I'm up to 0.80" with the post frontal rain, so I'd guess a half inch to an inch total down there. The wind was really the main feature, with 30 mph winds for six hours before the front. The prolonged wind is probably one reason we had so many trees down when the stronger winds from the squall line hit. Surprisingly, not one power failure in the county that I've heard of.
Quoting 66. Geoboy645:

Maybe the rain shield is caused by you're lake? It would make sense as the lake since it has more moisture and is probably big enough for a cooling effect.
I'm sure it does have something to do with the lake. This happens most often with fronts coming from due west, in line with the lake. I suspect that it has something to do with the air over the lake being cooler and more stable than the air over the land. The incoming front mixes with the stable air and loses some of its oomph. Just a guess though.
Quoting 69. sar2401:

I'm sure it does have something to do with the lake. This happens most often with fronts coming from due west, in line with the lake. I suspect that it has something to do with the air over the lake being cooler and more stable than the air over the land. The incoming front mixes with the stable air and loses some of its oomph. Just a guess though.
Have you thought of talking to your local nws offices about it?
No Weather here, Just windy and warm,
Low was 74.0F, High was 85.0F. One more day of this,
then possible rain....
I'm hoping for a weather day tomorrow because of all the damage. ;)
Quoting 63. sar2401:

There are many reports of trees down blocking roads here along with powerlines down. It looks like Russel and Pike counties had tornadoes as well. The local VFD's do a good job clearing the roads though. They love to saw things up with their chainsaws. Unless there's some structure damage, there probably won't be much to see in daylight.
73. OCF
High today in my part of Southern California: 91 degrees. Bah, humbug. Not good for the plants.
Quoting 71. PedleyCA:

No Weather here, Just windy and warm,
Low was 74.0F, High was 85.0F. One more day of this,
then possible rain....


Well, you are having weather, it's just a bit boring compared to many others parts of the country.
Quoting 65. plantmoretrees:



Haven't tried em yet, but I would rate gator way above kangaroo on the tastyness scale :-)


You guys are out of my league. No way I could eat Kangaroo. Btw, rain getting closer.
Quoting 74. Bucsboltsfan:



Well, you are having weather, it's just a bit boring compared to many others parts of the country.


Wouldn't trade it for anybodys elses Weather....
You know what I just realized we still havent had a storm in the west pacific. Thats odd considering its february 15th and normally we get at least one if not two storms by this point
Quoting 75. Bucsboltsfan:



You guys are out of my league. No way I could eat Kangaroo. Btw, rain getting closer.


IMHO, beef is much tastier than 'roo. I find roo meat to be a bit too 'gamey' for my tastes.

Haven't tried crocodile meat, though it's also available in many supermarkets (grocery stores) here in Australia.
Im just Waiting for ST Scott's doom forecast about the squall line coming through central florida that even he knows will weaken as it pushes through the peninsula
Quoting 76. PedleyCA:



Wouldn't trade it for anybodys elses Weather....


I was in San Diego on business a few weeks ago and the weather was perfect.
Quoting 60. Bucsboltsfan:



I'll eat frog legs as long as the person serving me tells me its chicken.
All this talk of exotic food has given me an idea on how to boost the protein content of ordinary fruit.

"The Protein-Enhanced Pear".
Maybe Monsanto will buy the patent.
This cold snap has done amazing things for the ice on Lake Erie..
It's about to get interesting! Reports of power outages west of here, radar velocity data shows about 55 knots, lightning flashes are increasing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC037-039-065-073-077-123-129-160430-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0025.160216T0345Z-160216T0430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1045 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN GADSDEN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
WESTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM EST

* AT 1044 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO NEAR ST GEORGE ISLAND...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO...WOODVILLE...CRAWFORDVILL E...
TALLAHASSEE...ST. MARKS...HAVANA...MIDWAY...QUINCY...EASTPOINT...
DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM...FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY...TALLAHASSEE COMM
COLLEGE...FLORIDA A AND M...WAKULLA...SOPCHOPPY...CASA BLANCO...
BETHEL...MONTIVILLA AND WAUKEENAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EST FOR NORTH FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2969 8479 2975 8485 2969 8488 3063 8460
3065 8381 3009 8400 3010 8400 3007 8418
3011 8427 3007 8427 3002 8437 3004 8438
3003 8439 2997 8434 2997 8445 2995 8434
2990 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 272DEG 36KT 3054 8454 2962 8483

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

11-MOORE
The storms are supposed to get to me between 3 am and 5 am, lovely !



GFS, really?

Quoting 73. OCF:

High today in my part of Southern California: 91 degrees. Bah, humbug. Not good for the plants.


The cactus's will be ok though....

Well glad to say no damage here, just some gusty winds and a lot of heavy rain and some lightning. Looks like the cell was cycling down a bit in terms of wind as it came through town, and it was beginning to bow to the south as it came through, placing us north of the idea wind gust zone. It was still a fun thunderstorm, though some people in the area have power outages, so no fun for them.

Well I leave you all with this.Dogs love snow more than humans I tell ya that.Hope this picture doesn't offend anybody.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
221 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

FLZ050-151-155-251-255-160815-
INLAND MANATEE FL-PINELLAS FL-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH FL-
COASTAL MANATEE FL-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH FL-
221 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN MANATEE
AND PINELLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EST...

AT 220 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES WEST OF ST. PETE BEACH...OR 13 MILES WEST OF FORT DESOTO PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMPA...CLEARWATER...LARGO...BRADENTON...PINELLAS PARK...PLANT CITY...
TEMPLE TERRACE...SEMINOLE...PALMETTO...LUTZ...SAINT PETERSBURG...BRANDON...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...FISH HAWK...ST. PETERSBURG...ST. PETE BEACH...
ANNA MARIA...TIERRA VERDE...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND EGYPT
LAKE-LETO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160654Z - 160900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS WILL MOVE ASHORE WRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN
NEXT FEW HOURS...OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STG-SVR GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...0650Z COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SFC
DATA INDICATE TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL LIFT
SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION:
1. SERN GA SWWD ACROSS CTY AREA TO ABOUT 80 WNW PIE AND
2. OVER GULF...ROUGHLY 40 WSW PIE TO ABOUT 175 WSW FMY.

PRECIP INFLUENCES FROM GULF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
INFLOW REGION OF SRN PORTION OF FIRST BAND...CONSIDERABLY
SUPPRESSING SVR POTENTIAL N OF TBW REGION. HOWEVER...SECOND/SRN
BAND WILL PROCEED EWD 30-35 KT...MOVING ASHORE FIRST AROUND TBW
REGION THEN FARTHER S ALONG W COAST TOWARD SRQ AND FMY. 00Z TBW
RAOB CONTAINED SOME STABLE LAYERS ALOFT STRONGLY LIMITING
BUOYANCY...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SINCE THEN
AND SOME STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS INCREASED BUOYANCY
OVER LAND. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE
AROUND 500-800 J/KG WITH SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL...AMIDST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES. EFFECTIVE
SRH OVER REGION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 250-400 J/KG...BASED BOTH ON
THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ON OBSERVED VWP FROM TBW AND MLB. MLCINH
APPEARS MINIMAL DESPITE SHALLOW/DIABATICALLY COOLED STABLE LAYER
NEAR SFC...AND THAT COOLING MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LOW-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING SFC DEW POINTS MID-60S F
AND KEEPING CINH WEAK. THIS ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SQUALL LINE...EVOLVING FROM
CURRENTLY WEAK CONVECTION INLAND NEAR COAST.

THREAT FARTHER S AROUND MARCO ISLAND AND EWD ACROSS EVERGLADES TO S
FL METRO IS MORE DISTANT IN TIME AND UNCERTAIN GIVEN NEWD EJECTION
OF ERN CONUS LOW AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AWAY FROM THIS
REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/VEERING OF FLOW POSSIBLE BY
AROUND DAYBREAK.

..EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
STORM WARNING
=============================
Near Tonga
West Of Niue

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT is in force for Niue

At 18:00 PM FST, Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 18.8S 174.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 14 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Deep convection remains persistent with convective band wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Organization remains good. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System lies under a moderate upper divergence region and in moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the east. System is being steered to the northeast by the southwest deep layer mean wind flow. Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yields DT=3.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 18.0S 173.1W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 17.5S 171.7W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 17.5S 170.7W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
This just popped up, TORNADO WARNING in central Florida... Had no idea this was coming this way.

TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-095-097-160930-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0003.160216T0847Z-160216T0930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
WEST CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 AM EST

* AT 347 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HARMONY...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF HOLOPAW...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP AROUND 430 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
CANAVERAL ACRES.
Quoting 82. Skyepony:

This cold snap has done amazing things for the ice on Lake Erie..

In the parlance of Wally Kinaan and other local mets that I remember from NE OH, the freezing over of Lake Erie translates into "shutting down the snow machine".

PS. Tornadic vortex signature flashing up on the MLB radar, NE Osceola county as I write this.
The tornado warning extends from SE of Orlando east to Titusville, Cocoa and the Kennedy Space Center.
TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-161000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0004.160216T0922Z-160216T1000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 AM EST

* AT 421 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROCKLEDGE AND COCOA AROUND 430 AM EST.
MERRITT ISLAND AND SHARPES AROUND 440 AM EST.
CAPE CANAVERAL AROUND 450 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
CANAVERAL ACRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2841 8059 2835 8061 2834 8062 2841 8064
2843 8060 2857 8060 2834 8066 2834 8070
2840 8073 2833 8072 2830 8086 2846 8090
2852 8078 2841 8072 2855 8073 2861 8060
2846 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 245DEG 28KT 2837 8086

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

WEITLICH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
532 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

FLZ047-054-058-059-064-161130-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-MARTIN FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
INDIAN RIVER FL-
532 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LUCIE...MARTIN...SOUTHEASTERN
OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 630
AM EST...

AT 531 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BAREFOOT BAY TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CANAL POINT...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...PALM BAY...WALTON...FORT PIERCE AND SEBASTIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2697 8061 2716 8071 2721 8079 2719 8084
2795 8063 2796 8054 2772 8041 2796 8051
2792 8048 2725 8022 2719 8016 2725 8032
2717 8026 2721 8022 2716 8018 2698 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1031Z 271DEG 29KT 2789 8052 2692 8075

$$

WEITLICH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
601 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 630 AM EST

* AT 601 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI PARK...OR 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOXAHATCHEE NWR.
My phone's very piercing EAS tone went off again this morning, as my area was under yet another warning, the sixth or seventh one this year. So I decided to do a comparison. First up, a map showing the severe weather warnings that affected South Florida during January and February of 2015:



Now, a map showing the severe weather warnings that have affected South Florida during January and February this year:



Ya gotta love El Nino years...

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EST...

* AT 558 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR INDIANTOWN TO 14 MILES EAST OF OKEELANTA TO
NEAR INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL... AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...CORAL SPRINGS...WEST PALM BEACH...POMPANO BEACH...
DAVIE...PLANTATION...SUNRISE...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD BEACH...BOYNTON
BEACH...DELRAY BEACH...TAMARAC...WELLINGTON...JUPITER...MARGATE.. .PALM
BEACH GARDENS...LAKE WORTH...RIVIERA BEACH...BELLE GLADE AND
LIGHTHOUSE POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&
Danger should be over in lil over an hour..stay alert down there ok..............
Danger should be over in lil over an hour..stay alert down there ok..............
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
648 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

FLZ068-168-161215-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
648 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM EST...

* AT 648 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SCHALL CIRCLE...OR NEAR WEST PALM BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST PALM BEACH...RIVIERA BEACH...PALM BEACH...HAVERHILL...CLOUD LAKE...
GUN CLUB ESTATES...ROYAL PALM ESTATES...PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...LAKE BELVEDERE ESTATES...PORT OF PALM BEACH...DOWNTOWN WEST
PALM BEACH...SCHALL CIRCLE...GOLDEN LAKES...MANGONIA PARK...GLEN RIDGE...
CENTURY VILLAGE...WESTGATE-BELVEDERE HOMES...STACEY STREET...
PLANTATION MOBILE HOME PARK AND LAKESIDE GREEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
Back from Athens Ohio. Left 3:PM, above freezing, 36F or so all the way from Athens to Morgantown WV.
Then it got interesting!

About 5 miles east of Morgantown temps started to drop and in 10 miles it went from 36F to 28F and freezing rain. It kept dropping and I stopped for food and fuel in Grantsville. 22F, freezing rain. Left with temp 23F a half hour later but it kept dropping and I hit intermittent moderate freezing rain showers to Frostburg (some snow too). Just east of Frostburg it was 18F with rain, icing on the windshield, ice and slop on the road and speed slowed to 20mph because of conditions. Descent to Cumberland warmed to 20F, wife called and said I should stop but I told her (through my son who had the phone.. I don't use phones driving) that I thought conditions would improve and I wanted to get son to an important DR appt today if I could make it but would stop if conditions got dangerous rather than just slow. It stayed slow with slight improvement as I went east, then more rapid improvement from
a point about 10 miles East of Hancock as temps started rising from 22F to 25F and then on the run on 70 to 27F and the run on 270 to 29F at DC. Arrived at midnight. HEAVY freezing rain, 28F on 270 for a spell JUST south of Frederick, enough to make sheets of water on the road, fell much faster than it could freeze. Then it got easier.
As I passed the College Park Hampton Inn three miles from home I was tempted to have Son phone my wife and say I decided I couldn't make it after all and would stop there. A mile later when I hit the side streets I thought that the intended humor might not be far from reality.. Kenilworth avenue was very icy. But I got home, unpacked and went to bed.

40F now but all schools are closed. Again. Three hour delay before us contractors can go into the building at NCEP.

OU orientation was great BTW. Son likes it a lot
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
712 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

FLC011-161230-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160216T1230Z/
BROWARD FL-
712 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM EST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 712 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER DAVIE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEMBROKE PINES...DAVIE...COOPER CITY...NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY AND
SUNSHINE ACRES.

LAT...LON 2605 8033 2609 8032 2609 8024 2601 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 259DEG 27KT 2608 8030

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
Quoting 105. LargoFl:

Danger should be over in lil over an hour..stay alert down there ok..............
Morning, Largo... looks like this is going to hold together all the way in to Grand Bahama ... moving a bit faster than I expected, too. I was thinking this afternoon for storms in my area, but may be midday instead. Hmph....
Quoting 111. Grothar:


Raining by you?
Quoting 111. Grothar:


Looks like Miami and the Keys are about to get in on the action.....
I'm in WPB right now. The thunder woke me up.

Maybe I just missed it, but I had NO IDEA a storm like this was coming through. Even late last night the forecast was talking simply about a chance of rain in the AM.
And the power is back on already. 0.3" of ice on the trees in North Wilkesboro, NC. Trees and power lines down county wide. Not sure what was louder, the thunderstorms last night or the trees coming down.



Quoting 112. BahaHurican:

Raining by you?


Raining??? That's not the word. I'm the mildest guy when it comes to reporting weather, but this took us by surprise. Winds are well over 40 mph and the side streets are flooded.
Artic ice at record low. At least since satellite images have recorded events. 9 plus billion humans breathing... Part of the warming?
Quoting 87. Jedkins01:

Well glad to say no damage here, just some gusty winds and a lot of heavy rain and some lightning. Looks like the cell was cycling down a bit in terms of wind as it came through town, and it was beginning to bow to the south as it came through, placing us north of the idea wind gust zone. It was still a fun thunderstorm, though some people in the area have power outages, so no fun for them.


I was woken up by some summer-like rumbles of thunder around 2:30 AM last night. It rained pretty heavily with some strong wind gusts, but due to the fast movement of the squall line, it didn't last long and I ended up with 0.52". I'm pretty surprised the line held together as well as it did all of the way into S FL, during the dead of night no less.
Good Morning. The Conus forecast for today and the storm reports from yesterday. The main squall line passage across the South-Gulf Coast produced some very strong straight-line winds, several tornadoes and wind damage across the board yesterday.

yesterday Reports Graphic

I picked up .70" here in south Fort Myers with lots of thunder earlier this morning. So far Wunderground is showing 0.0" for Page Field our official reporting station (which mesonet shows .60")
Not sure why Wunderground is taking so long and not showing our rainfall earlier this morning (hours ago).
And the current national doppler with the continued precip for the NE and parts of the US with the frontal line pushing across South Florida:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

And finally the current look and jet: interesting to see all of that convection flaring up off the Eastern Seaboard as the the cooler air pushes out over the very warm waters and Gulf Stream offshore.  All of that moisture is being funneled into the NE along the jet.




Quoting 70. Geoboy645:

Have you thought of talking to your local nws offices about it?
I've done that. The usual reaction is something like "That's interesting. Where's Eufaula?". We are the very last county in the BMX forecast area. I'm lucky if they recognize any severe weather about to hit let alone anything climatological down here. Maybe someone in the Atlanta NWS office has a clue, since they are responsible for Quitman County in Georgia, two miles east of me, across the lake...or Tallahassee, since they are responsible for the county south of me...or Mobile, since they are responsible for the county west of me. There are times I feel like a poor stepchild. :-)
Quoting 119. tampabaymatt:



I was woken up by some summer-like rumbles of thunder around 2:30 AM last night. It rained pretty heavily with some strong wind gusts, but due to the fast movement of the squall line, it didn't last long and I ended up with 0.52". I'm pretty surprised the line held together as well as it did all of the way into S FL, during the dead of night no less.


Yeah as has been the case with the last several systems, QPF was underdone again, up here the forecast was 0.50-0.75 widespread, but the actual was 1.0-1.5 widespread. Down there in Central Florida, the QPF was 0.25 but the actual was 0.50-1.0 inch, and that continued all the way into south Florida, where the QPF forecast was less than 0.10 with no strong thunderstorms expected. Ironically heavy rain and a few severe reports occurred well south of where any heavy rain or severe was expected.

I'm not sure what our exact total is yet, as I'm off to school soon, I'll measure it when I get back.
Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:

I picked up .70" here in south Fort Myers with lots of thunder earlier this morning. So far Wunderground is showing 0.0" for Page Field our official reporting station (which mesonet shows .60")
Not sure why Wunderground is taking so long and not showing our rainfall earlier this morning (hours ago).

I've pretty much given up on WU for any current data. I use the NWS for the hourlies, since they are usually pretty accurate. I've been burned over and over again assuming that what WU has posted is correct, only to find out later it wasn't. They seem overly focused on their PWS promotion. PWS data is like the motherlode of inaccuracy.
Quoting 114. MaineGuy:

I'm in WPB right now. The thunder woke me up.

Maybe I just missed it, but I had NO IDEA a storm like this was coming through. Even late last night the forecast was talking simply about a chance of rain in the AM.


It was definitely more potent there than expected in south Florida, the severe warnings and reports in South Florida occurred outside of the marginal risk zone, and rainfall forecasts were 0.10 or less down there.
Interesting new study on the Greenland Ice Sheet melt; some places adjacent to the sheet may actually see levels fall.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/how-meltin g-ice-sheet-could-actually-lower-sea-level-some-pl aces


WASHINGTON, D.C.—The Greenland ice sheet is melting. If you live in nearby Norway, how worried should you be about that sudden influx of water flooding your house? It turns out, not nearly as worried as you should be if you live in Chile. People tend to imagine that when an ice sheet melts, it adds water to all of the world’s ocean uniformly, like a bathtub filling up. “That isn’t even close,” Harvard University geophysicist Jerry Mitrovica told attendees yesterday at the annual meeting of AAAS (which publishes Science) in Washington, D.C. “Each ice sheet has its own pattern of sea level rise.” Mitrovica mapped what would happen to the world’s ocean if the rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet collapsed (as seen above). Right now, that ice is a huge weight pushing down Earth’s crust in and around Greenland. So when it’s gone, that land will pop up. An intact ice sheet also has a noticeable gravitational pull, which attracts water to the region. No ice means that water will rush away. Both of those effects actually add up to lower sea levels in the area right around the former ice sheet, Mitrovica said. When Greenland melts, places as far away as Norway and Scotland could actually see the sea level fall by as much as 50 meters. “But you pay the price somewhere,” Mitrovica said. In the Southern Hemisphere, you get more [sea level rise] than you bargained for.” The same counterbalancing effect holds for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If it were to collapse, the seas would rise the highest near Washington, D.C., and Northern California.
Quoting 127. Jedkins01:



Yeah as has been the case with the last several systems, QPF was underdone again, up here the forecast was 0.50-0.75 widespread, but the actual was 1.0-1.5 widespread. Down there in Central Florida, the QPF was 0.25 but the actual was 0.50-1.0 inch, and that continued all the way into south Florida, where the QPF forecast was less than 0.10 with no strong thunderstorms expected. Ironically heavy rain and a few severe reports occurred well south of where any heavy rain or severe was expected.

I'm not sure what our exact total is yet, as I'm off to school soon, I'll measure it when I get back.
I'm not sure why what happened in Florida was so unexpected. The weather up here should have given the local offices a clue as to what was in store. As the front held together across the Big Bend and Gulf, it seems like there wasn't much reason to expect it would do less once it got to the peninsula. If the storms had started their usual weakening before the front got there, I could understand it, but this front was strong even during the overnight hours, something that should have given the forecasters there an idea what was coming.
Quoting 131. sar2401:

I'm not sure why what happened in Florida was so unexpected. The weather up here should have given the local offices a clue as to what was in store. As the front held together across the Big Bend and Gulf, it seems like there wasn't much reason to expect it would do less once it got to the peninsula. If the storms had started their usual weakening before the front got there, I could understand it, but this front was strong even during the overnight hours, something that should have given the forecasters there an idea what was coming.


Yeah I agree, models were behind much of the way, the amount of severe weather was quite widespread with this system. I've seen a number of moderate risk events with less.
Quoting 131. sar2401:

I'm not sure why what happened in Florida was so unexpected. The weather up here should have given the local offices a clue as to what was in store. As the front held together across the Big Bend and Gulf, it seems like there wasn't much reason to expect it would do less once it got to the peninsula. If the storms had started their usual weakening before the front got there, I could understand it, but this front was strong even during the overnight hours, something that should have given the forecasters there an idea what was coming.


The HRRR model keyed in on the squall line holding together across the peninsula earlier in the day. It performed great for this event. I'm not sure why the Tampa NWS waited until the middle of the night to issue a tornado watch. I'm in no way criticizing them as I'm sure there's a good reason, but you'd think the NWS agencies would begin to consider issuing these watches and warnings before 90% of their area is asleep.
Quoting 122. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. The Conus forecast for today and the storm reports from yesterday. The main squall line passage across the South-Gulf Coast produced some very strong straight-line winds, several tornadoes and wind damage across the board yesterday.

yesterday Reports Graphic


I don't know what the criteria used by SPC is for how a storm system gets forecast. It seems like 166 storm reports should have been forecast as more that a slight or marginal risk for severe weather. This is the fourth round of storms since Christmas Eve when the forecast was no more that a slight risk and we ended up with a fair number of tornadoes and a lot of wind damage. They are still cutting up trees and restoring power around the area this morning I don't know if this is the El Nino effect or what, but the storms down here this winter have all been more severe than originally forecast. I've been getting increasingly concerned each time one of these systems comes through. I wonder what will happen if we get a more potent system than the ones we've been having?
Quoting 127. Jedkins01:



Yeah as has been the case with the last several systems, QPF was underdone again, up here the forecast was 0.50-0.75 widespread, but the actual was 1.0-1.5 widespread. Down there in Central Florida, the QPF was 0.25 but the actual was 0.50-1.0 inch, and that continued all the way into south Florida, where the QPF forecast was less than 0.10 with no strong thunderstorms expected. Ironically heavy rain and a few severe reports occurred well south of where any heavy rain or severe was expected.

I'm not sure what our exact total is yet, as I'm off to school soon, I'll measure it when I get back.


Only .24" here in Longwood as the heaviest storms rolled from Tampa to Orlando points east and south. There was a lot of lightning though as what looked like a supercell rolled just to my west. 2.10" for February so far with over 10" for the year. Next big storm arrives next Tuesday.

Quoting 133. tampabaymatt:



The HRRR model keyed in on the squall line holding together across the peninsula earlier in the day. It performed great for this event. I'm not sure why the Tampa NWS waited until the middle of the night to issue a tornado watch. I'm in no way criticizing them as I'm sure there's a good reason, but you'd think the NWS agencies would begin to consider issuing these watches and warnings before 90% of their area is asleep.
Jed would know better than me, but I think the SPC issues tornado watches, not the local office. That being said, even a reading of the late SPC briefing yesterday evening was that the line would lose much of its dynamics as the low pulled further north. I would have thought the same thing using conventional forecasting rules as well, but such didn't prove to be the case. As I've said before, the storms down here don't seem to be following conventional rules since the advent of this El Nino. That's also the case on the West Coast, as this El Nino has not produced the big times rains there we've seen in past strong El Nino's, and things aren't looking hopeful for them now that we've now passed President's Day. I don't know how you forecast what seems to be uncharted ground.
CFSv2 is showing Super El-Nino this Fall. Very odd to say the least and is going against all other models. However the CFS is forecasting a sustained WWB beginning this week and lasting thru the first half of March. As a result a new OKW is expected to form this Spring which could keep El-Nino ongoing and is likely what the CFSv2 is seeing.

the february euro enso 3.4 model is out to the public........say goodbye to your little friend.......

Quoting 132. Jedkins01:



Yeah I agree, models were behind much of the way, the amount of severe weather was quite widespread with this system. I've seen a number of moderate risk events with less.
Well, at some point, you need to disregard what the global models are showing for the short term and just start looking at upstream weather. It's kind of depressing reading a forecast discussion for the weather for the next four hours and seeing them still trying to figure out the GFS versus the Euro. The HRRR seems to be a pretty good short term tool in terms of models, but the rest of them just don't have the resolution to deal with near-term stuff. I'm assuming younger mets are still taught how to use surface charts, upstream observations, and upstream history to give them a picture what might be headed their way. Maybe it's time to reemphasize that today.
Quoting 115. Walshy:

And the power is back on already. 0.3" of ice on the trees in North Wilkesboro, NC. Trees and power lines down county wide. Not sure what was louder, the thunderstorms last night or the trees coming down.




I hate ice storms. I'm glad you at least got power back relatively quickly. The upside is that temperatures are going to warm up fairly rapidly, so those without power won't have to be in freezing temperatures for too long.
Worst thunderstorms since last June. About 4 AM. The wind was the worst part. 15 minute absolute deluge. Looked outside to see the little cedar tree I recently transplanted tethered to its stake flying like a kite. I suspect light damage around the neighborhood. No warnings. KFLO reporting station showing 1.10" for the roughly half hour event so that seems about right. KFLO max wind gust 45, but well exceeded that here about 8 miles west.

Quoting 116. Grothar:



Raining??? That's not the word. I'm the mildest guy when it comes to reporting weather, but this took us by surprise. Winds are well over 40 mph and the side streets are flooded.
I wonder if the day will arrive again when I don't have to refresh several times just to see if what I posted actually showed up? It seems like every "upgrade" leads to something else getting broken.
and our aussie friends have given their latest update....here's an excerpt..........

El Niño slowly weakening
Issued on 16 February 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The 2015–16 El Niño continues its gradual decline. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooling, and beneath the surface, cooler-than-average waters are advancing into the eastern Pacific. The atmosphere is also showing some signs of a declining El Niño. Trade winds are now the strongest they have been in nearly two years, though may weaken again briefly in the coming fortnight
also from the aussies........

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dipped to an event-to-date minimum of %u221223.6 on 26 January. Since then, the SOI has risen steeply, with the latest 30-day SOI to 14 February at %u22129.0.
and the latest poama model.....

This lightning strike was captured by Andrew Calore in Boca Raton during this morning's storms.

Quoting 141. HaoleboySurfEC:

Worst thunderstorms since last June. About 4 AM. The wind was the worst part. 15 minute absolute deluge. Looked outside to see the little cedar tree I recently transplanted tethered to its stake flying like a kite. I suspect light damage around the neighborhood. No warnings. KFLO reporting station showing 1.10" for the roughly half hour event so that seems about right. KFLO max wind gust 45, but well exceeded that here about 8 miles west.


I think I wrote yesterday that I expected the storm to be at the high end of whatever was forecast by the time it got to you. What you got was basically the same as what I got, and what it sounds like parts of south Florida got. This was a pretty unusual system. The front itself wasn't particularly strong for winter, but the lows that formed along the front were much deeper than predicted, and the low passed north not far from you. That kept dynamics needed for storm performance much closer than what was forecast 48 hours ago, and was probably responsible for the same types of severe weather to occur over such a large area. I'm just glad I'm not being paid to forecast this kind of thing in advance.
Quoting 146. GeoffreyWPB:

This lightning strike was captured by Andrew Calore in Boca Raton during this morning's storms.


Dang! At least he was smart enough to have taken the photo from inside the house. I wonder what happned to whatever it hit?
Quoting 146. GeoffreyWPB:

This lightning strike was captured by Andrew Calore in Boca Raton during this morning's storms.




One obstacle with predicting weather events in the past several decades is to many trust models for there forecasts. Looking at data is important but first hand human interaction with weather takes a back seat now especially with the NWS. People need to be able to trust there local meteorologist, but as many now a days only read a script sent to them by there boss. I lived in Florida for many years and in 2004 when hurricane Charley took a sharp turn below the area predicted for landfall. If not for the local mets many more would have died if they only listened to the NHC forecast. Dennis Phillips last night was posting live on his facebook page about the severe weather and giving people advanced warning that the local TV stations in the Tampa bay area had nothing.
Sar, I didn't think the atmosphere could support what hit us last night so I agree. When I went to sleep at 1:30, it was 39F and a cold drizzle. When I woke up at 4:00, it was 61F with a freight train approaching. I expected something much weaker.

Quoting 147. sar2401:

I think I wrote yesterday that I expected the storm to be at the high end of whatever was forecast by the time it got to you. What you got was basically the same as what I got, and what it sounds like parts of south Florida got. This was a pretty unusual system. The front itself wasn't particularly strong for winter, but the lows that formed along the front were much deeper than predicted, and the low passed north not far from you. That kept dynamics needed for storm performance much closer than what was forecast 48 hours ago, and was probably responsible for the same types of severe weather to occur over such a large area. I'm just glad I'm not being paid to forecast this kind of thing in advance.
Saved some Arctic data this morning. It is a new daily Arctic Sea Ice Area Minimum.


Quoting 150. frank727:



One obstacle with predicting weather events in the past several decades is to many trust models for there forecasts. Looking at data is important but first hand human interaction with weather takes a back seat now especially with the NWS. People need to be able to trust there local meteorologist, but as many now a days only read a script sent to them by there boss. I lived in Florida for many years and in 2004 when hurricane Charley took a sharp turn below the area predicted for landfall. If not for the local mets many more would have died if they only listened to the NHC forecast. Dennis Phillips last night was posting live on his facebook page about the severe weather and giving people advanced warning that the local TV stations in the Tampa bay area had nothing.


Just saying Punta Gorda was under a Hurricane warning well in advance of landfall and they were within the cone of uncertainty as noted here.



This is why it is ALWAYS STRESSED by the NWS and NHC to follow the cone and not the exact track. Yes Charley took a turn to the east of the center line of the track, but was very well within the cone of uncertainty. I had friends down in Punta Gorda and before this storm crossed Cuba I was already emphasizing to them to evacuate and not take chances. Luckily they did. They lost their home.


LINK to NHC source
About a foot of snow and coming down hard in Rochester, NY
Quoting 153. ILwthrfan:



Just saying Punta Gorda was under the a Hurricane warning well in advance of landfall and they were within the cone of uncertainty as noted here.



This is why it is ALWAYS STRESSED by the NWS and NHC to follow the cone and not the exact track. Yes Charley took a turn to the east of the center line of the track, but was very well within the cone of uncertainty. I had friends down in Punta Gorda and before this storm crossed Cuba I was already emphasizing to them to evacuate and not take chances. Luckily they did. They lost their home.


LINK to NHC source


I agree with the cone but why include the center line that most show as ground zero. I went through Charley and lived 1 mile from the gulf by Indian rocks beach. I saw them forecast using the center line all week. The day Charley was forecasted to hit we were still ground zero. The big reporting weather services like the NHC and NWS all have ways to cover there tracks if not now they have gag orders as employees are forced not to talk. If they do they are severely reprimanded.
The issue of SPC criteria is waaaay above my layman's pay grade................. :) But I was also surprised with the slight risk category yesterday along the Gulf Coast versus what actually unfolded. Not suggesting a busted forecast as I think they were looking at lapse rates and such which did not indicate severe limits..........Not sure if the additional boost from the warm flow from the Gulf was the culprit or a slight nudge of the jet to the North which may have happened over the period of a few hours.
Quoting 157. frank727:



I agree with the cone but why include the center line that most show as ground zero. I went through Charley and lived 1 mile from the gulf by Indian rocks beach. I saw them forecast using the center line all week. The day Charley was forecasted to hit we were still ground zero. The big reporting weather services like the NHC and NWS all have ways to cover there tracks if not now they have gag orders as employees are forced not to talk. If they do they are severely reprimanded.


The cone is their protection but also protection for citizens. If you move that forecast chart up to 5:00am the next day, it shifted northward along the west coast and the watches shifted northward. It certainly wasn't a miss by the NHC but they had a northward bias that morning.
Quoting 159. Bucsboltsfan:



The cone is their protection but also protection for citizens. If you move that forecast chart up to 5:00am the next day, it shifted northward along the west coast and the watches shifted northward. It certainly wasn't a miss by the NHC but they had a northward bias that morning.


Believe what you want but the bottom line it's all about the money. If they took the center line out more evacuations would be needed and that equates to revenue lost. It's never about lives it's about the money.
161. vis0
oops forgot the anemometer readings, at 930AM-955AM EST ,  4-7 mph constant, natural gusts 20 mph  with the "magic" device i speak of "**-*"creating "energy transferring  quick (1-2 seconds) gusts" to 40mph (the latter winds tell me when something will be affected throughout the other ml-d AOIs, as its nature will transfer those communicating winds via intrAE-atom sounds / vibrations / resonances (healthy animals use that to tell when something is "up") don't ask....you'll probably hear of a discovery as to raindrops (nature) communicating via vibrations within the drops chemical makeup interacting with each other in a decade or so. Posted a recent discovery (if i may TOOT, i told ya so. Mr. Jim Cantore, in the 1990s) of the raindrops "gaseous" makeup on BaltimoreBrians blog
Quoting 159. Bucsboltsfan:



The cone is their protection but also protection for citizens. If you move that forecast chart up to 5:00am the next day, it shifted northward along the west coast and the watches shifted northward. It certainly wasn't a miss by the NHC but they had a northward bias that morning.


It wasn't a miss because the NHC had hurricane warnings for the entire west coast of Florida including southwest Florida. So being under a hurricane warning you should be paying attention to the weather and expect changing conditions. But the average person just looks at the line down the center of the cone and where the landfall is expected (which was north of Tampa for Charley when people went to bed the night before the hurricane).

But was mentioned in the previous comments the NHC kept showing the center line and likely landfall location north of tampa. This gave people in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers area specifically) a sense that they really didn't need to worry too much about the hurricane because it was going to landfall hundreds of miles to the north.

Late night into very early the next morning, some local news meteorologists started warning people that hurricane Charley was heading staight towards the Fort Myers area. The NHC was still showing the centerline/landfall up near Tampa.

It really wasn't until later that morning (hours before landfall) that the NHC moved the landfall location down to the actual landfall location near north Captiva Island just off the coast of Fort Myers.

This did come as a major surprise to the average person who doesn't really follow or understand watches, warning, etc. They just knew the hurricane was supposed to end up near Tampa (based on the center line and landfall forecast) and they didn't worry much about it. Then people in the Fort Myers area woke up the next morning with a CAT4 hurricane heading directly at their location.

It really was panic mode on local T.V. trying to explain to people that a CAT4 could make a direct hit on the city in just a few hours.
Skyepony - your no. 152 - interesting about the Arctic sea ice, which I've also been watching on the NSIDC website (see http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/). Since several meteorological organisations have forecast that 2016 could be as warm (globally averaged) or even warmer than 2015, I am just wondering how low the Summer minimum is going to be later this year. And that's before considering the Winter maximum, which we haven't reached yet - mid March? - as that may turn out to be the lowest recorded. Any thoughts on what's causing such a low maximum trend at the moment, and how long this will continue? It's also noticeably stormy on this side of the Pond (I'm writing from northern England, in the heart of the Pennines, where it's a cold and very blowy sort of day, snow still lying from falls a few nights ago, more forecast for tonight), and it could be a very stormy and wet Spring, with more of the flooding we saw last November and December. We had record wet weather in much of the UK in December and early January, which may or may not be linked to the El Nino and the 'atmospheric river' idea/model. It has also been amazingly windy at times, particularly strong winds in the south during storm 'Henry' (or was it 'Imogen'? we've had so many I'm losing track ...). Looks like we could be in for a lot more of this during 2016; watch this space ...
Quoting 79. sanflee76:

Im just Waiting for ST Scott's doom forecast about the squall line coming through central florida that even he knows will weaken as it pushes through the peninsula
I'm glad it weakened...
If one is wundergrounder, and has NOT a NOAA weather alert radio..

Well,

Good Luck downstream in time.

Quoting 151. HaoleboySurfEC:

Sar, I didn't think the atmosphere could support what hit us last night so I agree. When I went to sleep at 1:30, it was 39F and a cold drizzle. When I woke up at 4:00, it was 61F with a freight train approaching. I expected something much weaker.


By about noon yesterday, it looked like the push of marine air was going to be faster and further inland than what was on the forecast charts at that time. The front actually slowed down for a couple of hours in the late afternoon, but it then started to move even faster. It went through here at 55 mph about 9:00, and some individual storms were moving at 65-70 mph. The temperature here at 10:00 was still 47 degrees with only 42% humidity. The temperature climbed to 62 by noon with a corresponding increase in humidity.

The strange thing was that the air didn't feel tropical. You know how it is sometimes with these incoming storms - you can stand outside and feel that warm, moist air as it blows past you. The wind was always cold yesterday, even as the temperature went up. I had some work to do on an antenna mounted on my SUV, and I had to get a jacket while the temperature was 69. Part of it was the gusty 20-30 mph winds, but it just didn't feel warm or humid. All I know now is I'm going to assume any front coming in after sufficient Gulf return flow is going to be worse than what's forecast. This is storm number four in less than two months where this has happened, so it seems pretty clear that forecasts are not going to have a handle on these with any kind of lead time.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 926 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 923 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 843 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 829 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 804 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 753 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 750 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 736 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 730 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 713 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 707 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 651 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 628 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 621 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 603 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 601 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 458 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 440 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 429 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 422 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 417 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 400 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 358 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 347 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 is showing Super El-Nino this Fall. Very odd to say the least and is going against all other models. However the CFS is forecasting a sustained WWB beginning this week and lasting thru the first half of March. As a result a new OKW is expected to form this Spring which could keep El-Nino ongoing and is likely what the CFSv2 is seeing.


Also strong trade winds. The last big WWB didn't do much and this next one is a lot weaker. Should slow the decline but not increase ssta.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.pn g
Quoting 117. NSB207:

Artic ice at record low. At least since satellite images have recorded events. 9 plus billion humans breathing... Part of the warming?
Hmmm...interesting
Look at this Scott.

Quoting 166. Bucsboltsfan:



You sure about that?
The idea that a hurricane forecast would change depending on the cost of evacuations is clearly nuts. Even if the state wanted that to happen, they don't tell the Feds, including the NWS, what to do. Anyone who has ever worked in emergency management knows how jealously turf is guarded, and no one from one agency gives orders to another. Even the Illuminati are not well organized enough to change the forecast path of a hurricane in the few hours before it makes landfall.
Quoting 162. Sfloridacat5:



It wasn't a miss because the NHC had hurricane warnings for the entire west coast of Florida including southwest Florida. So being under a hurricane warning you should be paying attention to the weather and expect changing conditions. But the average person just looks at the line down the center of the cone and where the landfall is expected (which was north of Tampa for Charley when people went to bed the night before the hurricane).

But was mentioned in the previous comments the NHC kept showing the center line and likely landfall location north of tampa. This gave people in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers area specifically) a sense that they really didn't need to worry too much about the hurricane because it was going to landfall hundreds of miles to the north.

Late night into very early the next morning, some local news meteorologists started warning people that hurricane Charley was heading staight towards the Fort Myers area. The NHC was still showing the centerline/landfall up near Tampa.

It really wasn't until later that morning (hours before landfall) that the NHC moved the landfall location down to the actual landfall location near north Captiva Island just off the coast of Fort Myers.

This did come as a major surprise to the average person who doesn't really follow or understand watches, warning, etc. They just knew the hurricane was supposed to end up near Tampa (based on the center line and landfall forecast) and they didn't worry much about it. Then people in the Fort Myers area woke up the next morning with a CAT4 hurricane heading directly at their location.

It really was panic mode on local T.V. trying to explain to people that a CAT4 could make a direct hit on the city in just a few hours.
I really do wish they'd remove the centerline from hurricane graphics. We don't have the science to be able to accurately predict hurricane locations even 24 hours in advance. Drawing a line between each predicted location also gives people the sense the hurricane will really follow that path, and it's likely, especially past 24 hours, that the actual path will show some significant deviation. If we just showed the cone, it would focus people's attention on the main risk areas. Anyone within the cone may, and oftentimes do, feel the full effects of a hurricane. What happened with Charley was a good example of people being lulled into a false sense of security based on the centerline path.
Quoting 103. Neapolitan:

My phone's very piercing EAS tone went off again this morning, as my area was under yet another warning, the sixth or seventh one this year. So I decided to do a comparison. First up, a map showing the severe weather warnings that affected South Florida during January and February of 2015:



Now, a map showing the severe weather warnings that have affected South Florida during January and February this year:



Ya gotta love El Nino years...


I guess this comes in the department of those four words everyone loves to say

I TOLD YOU SO! :-)
Quoting 172. Gearsts:

Look at this Scott.




strong LA nino on the way
Is the Hurricane/Tropical Blog no more? Is this the new place to be for all us weather junkies?
I'm in the temperature whiplash zone in New England. Our biggest hazard this morning is rain atop very frozen ground. I took a slip on the back steps that reminded me that air temps are not equal to ground temps. Fortunately, only my pride was wounded. If you don't have to be out, it may be a good day to stay off the sidewalks.
Temperatures in College Park MD shot up from 30s to about 50 in an hour. Then I found out how much momentum was up above the inversion layer as it started to mix down, calm to very windy transitione during this interval. Heavy
showers, finally near done. Temps in the 50s at the end of my dogwalk, fortunately missed the showers.

Quoting 178. KDDFlorida:

Is the Hurricane/Tropical Blog no more? Is this the new place to be for all us weather junkies?



in hurricane season yep but in the off season we talk about other stuff
Quoting 177. Tazmanian:



strong LA nino on the way


Shhhhhhhn... Don't tell him that. He is on the Super El Niño bandwagon for next year.
Looks like some tornado reports coming out of S FL

Quoting 181. Tazmanian:




in hurricane season yep but in the off season we talk about other stuff


I know Taz, I've been here lurking for years, but I noticed a couple weeks ago my link to the Hurricane/Tropical blog didn't work, and this one is the only one I saw from Dr. Masters where all the usual suspects like you are posting. Must have been some webpage redesign going on?
185. ariot
The weather in Maryland today is what I would expect after a late March or early April light-snow event -- NOT what is normal after a mid-February arctic blast and snow event.

Yesterday, the geothermal heater in my apartment was calling on the backup coil heater a few times to keep the temp at 65 indoors. This morning, I opened a window until blowing rain required me to close it.

:-)
Quoting 182. Bucsboltsfan:



Shhhhhhhn... Don't tell him that. He is on the Super El Niño bandwagon for next year.


well scott needs too get off that and stop posting maps that are like 12 moths down the rd wish will not likey be ture
187. SuzK
Quoting 94. guygee:

In the parlance of Wally Kinaan and other local mets that I remember from NE OH, the freezing over of Lake Erie translates into "shutting down the snow machine".

PS. Tornadic vortex signature flashing up on the MLB radar, NE Osceola county as I write this.


The funny thing is, growing up in Metro Detroit, away from the lake effect snow areas, being nw of Lake Erie, we didn't get lake effect snow...unless the wind was blowing *backwards*. That didn't happen often, and was always an astonishment to me, then. We could just about count on pretty good weather until after Xmas, when Lake MI would freeze up, and then would come the snowstorms, all the way from Siberia, skating across Canada and the frozen lakes and nailing us decent. You could bet on that, some years. That is when it turned on Detroits snow machine. The lakes are thermal barriers until they aren't. The weather of the Great Lakes is fascinating.

It has been a few years now since the weather on steroids was beyond detailed forecast. No matter the forecast, it isn't correct, except in the most general sense. It's all well and good until a tornado gets ya when you're sleeping peacefully after a benign weather newscast that had no chance of being correct. I would love to hear anyone admit that what is already the chaos theory is truly more chaotic and unpredictable than *we* have ever seen, although we've been warned. Our collective consciousness knows what has been, and what may be. Inately, we understand that yes, 9 billion people breathing in and out might have something of an effect on our atmosphere. What do we think 2025 will look like?
Local news is showing a video of a possible tornado in Miramar Florida this morning.

Scroll down and watch the video. You can actually see the rotation as the small tornado passes by the camera.
Link
Quoting 156. vis0:


(This weather report was from 0935AM till 0955AM EST, had to report it late as took cover in the kitchen and took advantage of being THERE and cooking up breakfast, ON my wobbly  kitchen table menu::
3/4 slice of burnt toast 1/4 was eaten by toaster.
Frozen smear of better and some small black stain from unwashed fork.
sunny side in the middle eggs, slightly roasted (don't ask).
U-BET chocolate syrup (i'm betting it has some chocolate).
LINDT  EXCELLENCE 90% COCOA 1 ounce.

Empanadilla (bigger/thicker meat pattie type burrito, thgough really filled with more veggies and meat, using less meat than it the Latin / Spanish / Caribbean  custom instead more veggies due to washi115s diet wake up blog a few months ago)
 )
  and 32 oz of water to disloge wha gets stuck in my throat.

LATE WxREPORT:: Getting a form of your rain blizzard but here its more of a cross between fog blizzard...

(horizontal fog moving like i';m on a plane going through a cloud)


...and a shower blizzard as heard and noticed (have old unreliable anemometer** on window - NYCHA doesn't allow real WEATHER STATIONS EVEN IF THEY WEIGHT 1=-2 lbS. SO I RIGGED IN THE 1970S a rad shack (i think or from an electronic company based in Minnesota or Milwaukee, which as a kid i luved their 200 page catalogs which i first ordered from Scientific America AD, remember sar2401 those square perfectly cut pages in the old magazines that had page by page by page by page on how to build anything...even i think reactors). 
Built a crappy anemometer from a cooling fan (after reading how to correctly rewire small fans in that catalougue) or was it from a cracker jack box??? : - P (okay so i shorted out 2 before i got it right)
Its on my eastern (ESE) window hidden (when i place it there) so it can't really read the "free moving". winds (not accurate as its hidden close to window not exposed to free moving air)

When i place it there?
i have to keep it hidden from NYCHA binoculars, as NYCHA looks down on anything built/placed on window sills no matter how secure, if they can t make money off them / it, so my my 2-4 ounce anemometer is a no-no (sit down hairy legged people, no not that no-no), but a 5 ton old AC unit badly secured that's Okay ...have had 2 heavy! AC units fall literally feet from me, one near  14th st & 7th Ave(from 7th flr) & another 118th st and 2nd Ave (from 4th flr).
 
Back then REAL RadShack (Radio Shack - Tandy)weather warning stations i think were  calibrated at 8 lbs, 12 Lbs. and 24 Lbs.  See that radio warned you of severe weather by it blowing off your window or rooftop.  The stronger the wind the higher chance that the heavier RadShack models where blown off your window sill or roof top.  The loud warning sound was when you hear the neighbors window breaking immediately followed by neighbors high pitched yell as the weather station went through their window, that meant  it it was time to head for the Bodega and buy some popcorn so you could watch 2 hrs of LIVE coverage Of tree limbs down in Central Park nyc and stuck cabs in the parks viaducts cause 1 inch fell in 30 minutes OMG!!!.

Going to NOW read how Florida held up with the front that went by last night, hope all are Okay.

I have to remember not to read your posts while eating the Southern version of an empanada (sausage biscuit with cheese). It takes about five minutes to get over the choking. :-)

Yes, I remember when Scientific American was a real magazine. I had a subscription to it for many years, but it's gotten almost unreadable now, not to mention expensive. I'd guess the catalog you're talking about is Edmund Scientific. They advertised a lot in SA back in the 60's and 70's, and had all kinds of kits you could buy to make things like telescopes and weather stations. They were out of New Jersey though, so I don't know who you're talking about from other cities. Radio Shack was headquartered in Fort Worth. I always looked forward to their new catalog, and especially their sale flyers. There's an online collection of all their catalogs available if you want to relive the old days. For even more geekiness, there's also an archive of all the Allied catalogs also available online.
Quoting 187. SuzK:



The funny thing is, growing up in Metro Detroit, away from the lake effect snow areas, being nw of Lake Erie, we didn't get lake effect snow...unless the wind was blowing *backwards*. That didn't happen often, and was always an astonishment to me, then. We could just about count on pretty good weather until after Xmas, when Lake MI would freeze up, and then would come the snowstorms, all the way from Siberia, skating across Canada and the frozen lakes and nailing us decent. You could bet on that, some years. That is when it turned on Detroits snow machine. The lakes are thermal barriers until they aren't. The weather of the Great Lakes is fascinating.

It has been a few years now since the weather on steroids was beyond detailed forecast. No matter the forecast, it isn't correct, except in the most general sense. It's all well and good until a tornado gets ya when you're sleeping peacefully after a benign weather newscast that had no chance of being correct. I would love to hear anyone admit that what is already the chaos theory is truly more chaotic and unpredictable than *we* have ever seen, although we've been warned. Our collective consciousness knows what has been, and what may be. Inately, we understand that yes, 9 billion people breathing in and out might have something of an effect on our atmosphere. What do we think 2025 will look like?


I was born in Flint, Grew up in Port Huron, and spent most of my adult life in the Traverse City/Elk Rapids area. Michigan Lake effect is an amazing experience and you are correct, pending where you live in the state it can be an all or nothing scenario on lake effect accumulations. Moved to Florida years ago to solve that problem! Lol
Now the CMC has joined the crazy GFS.lol.I'm still skeptical after the last storm (February 9th)
153 on...I always giggle a bit when I see the NWS graphics because they are pretty old school as graphics go. Regardless, the centerline is the projected storm path, not the width of wind force levels or flooding associated with the storm. When you are under the entire cone, its time to take notice and take actions to mitigate damage to your property and/or bug out, depending on your situation. Everyone should strive to understand the data and forecast, and what it means to them personally. I would never blame a weather forecast for the storm's impact on my situation. It is too complex of an event to do anything other than to manage the risk. And yes sometimes, someone (like a Governor) has to step in and demand an evacuation event, because the typical person might ignore the warnings "as if it would never happen to them".
Better link to the surveillance footage that caught the circulation in Miramar Fl. Definitely appears to be a weak EF0 at this point.
Link

Scroll down to the second video in his Twitter. It lasts a little longer and shows a palm tree being blown down near the end of the video. What's cool is you see the plants blowing one direction and then a few seconds later they get blown back in the opposite direction.

Another round of rain coming into Tennessee.
Quoting 172. Gearsts:

Look at this Scott.



Yup this shows the thermocline and cold water pool clearly shifting "toward" la nina. However, it also indicates that Kelvin Wave 5 has not reached the surface yet. So we are marching toward a more la nina state but this nino is not over and slow downs and spikes will happen. KW5 will be cooled (tempered) by strong trades in the east (region 3 and 1.2) where KW5 will first surface later in the month and into march.
NWS: Tornado touched down in Collier County

Posted: Feb 16, 2016 5:45 AM EST
Updated: Feb 16, 2016 12:11 PM EST
By Sophie Nielsen-Kolding, Collier County reporterCONNECT

COLLIER COUNTY, FL -
Overnight storms stirred some Collier County residents from bed and residents in at least one neighborhood spent their morning cleaning up after strong winds damaged homes and scattered furniture.

The Enchanting Shores mobile home park, which sits just west of US-41 in East Naples, saw multiple homes with twisted metal awnings and gutters -- and, in one case, an entire carport lifted from the ground before ultimately landing on a vehicle.

No injuries were reported from the East Naples storm, which was part of a wild overnight that also included what the National Weather Service said was a tornado that touched down in the county near Miles City.

NWS officials said a Florida Highway Patrol officer headed eastbound on I-75 reported the twister near mile marker 70 at around 5:10 a.m. The officer lost sight of the tornado at mile marker 66 at 5:17 a.m. as it continued to travel northeast -- away from the interstate.

"Shutters were flapping, and then I heard our grill hit the neighbor's house," said Linda Butler of East Naples. "The lamps blew over, and I don't know if it was the grill or their roof that made that big noise."
Quoting 192. washingtonian115:

Now the CMC has joined the crazy GFS.lol.I'm still skeptical after the last storm (February 9th)



Yeah I think they are both going to come back to reality over the next 5 days or so.
8 inches of snow this morning, compressed down to 5 or so from heavy freezing rain and sleet, now snowing moderately again. I had better plow before it turns into a rock! Even registered 0.3" of rain soaking through the snow into my gauge, which is unusual. I have no idea of how much liquid equivalent we have received, but it is quite a lot.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=KNYEASTB2#history

Looks like snow from here on out, I would guess another 3 or so inches before it is over, for 8 inches total with very high moisture content.
They've already come back to reality. The 12Z run of each basically shows nothing now.
Severe thunderstorm warning just issued for Philly burbs into Jersey.
Quoting 202. YankeMike22:

They've already come back to reality. The 12Z run of each basically shows nothing now.

Just saw that, will be interesting to see which way the trend, but seems like the 00z was just an anomalous run.
Quoting 172. Gearsts:

Look at this Scott.


Hi, lets say good bye to the Nino, and hello Nina.
208. vis0
Quoting 174. sar2401:

I really do wish they'd remove the centerline from hurricane graphics. We don't have the science to be able to accurately predict hurricane locations even 24 hours in advance. Drawing a line between each predicted location also gives people the sense the hurricane will really follow that path, and it's likely, especially past 24 hours, that the actual path will show some significant deviation. If we just showed the cone, it would focus people's attention on the main risk areas. Anyone within the cone may, and oftentimes do, feel the full effects of a hurricane. What happened with Charley was a good example of people being lulled into a false sense of security based on the centerline path.
If they need a center they should use a center circle like "line" as::

the pros know to connect the line to line but layman get the hint to follow the circles (in the future they'll be 3D-spheres so flights know where to go).
BTW i know they use large circular out-liners i mean tighter circles nearer the centerline as in image.
How do we embed videos? My brain sailed on me today....
211. vis0
at #206 my errors
Quoting 180. georgevandenberghe:

Temperatures in College Park MD shot up from 30s to about 50 in an hour. Then I found out how much momentum was up above the inversion layer as it started to mix down, calm to very windy transitione during this interval. Heavy
showers, finally near done. Temps in the 50s at the end of my dogwalk, fortunately missed the showers.




I didn't miss showers later, just during the walk. Dogs were happy not to get poured on.

Back down to 47F. Expecting more seasonable weather for next few days (and a 60F weekend
in February in DC is seasonably realistic)

Quoting 204. 1Zach1:


Just saw that, will be interesting to see which way the trend, but seems like the 00z was just an anomalous run.
The ensembles still have the storm though
Quoting 205. NativeSun:

Hi, lets say good bye to the Nino, and hello Nina.
Not yet ;)
Why was my comment removed for asking a mod a question? I think I know who's on duty today.....
Why all the empty post?
I don't know why you don't start a new weather blog instead of trying to fix all the posts.
The ECMWF 12z has a blockbuster for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with a Miller A cyclone.
Today is the END of the higher temps out here. The Forecast is for 91/92 and then to drop off to the mid 70's tomorrow with a chance of rain Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning.
Drakoen... what is the Euro showing for snowfall amounts?

Yikes....
Ian Livingston
%u200F@islivingston
New Euro is heavily on board the Mon-Wed storm threat next week. #godzillanino

I'm having Snowzilla flashbacks.....

221. YankeMike22
I'll post it ,if I can get my hands on it soon.
Quoting 218. Drakoen:

The ECMWF 12z has a blockbuster for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with a Miller A cyclone.

How much is it modeling for the near-western suburbs?
Quoting 218. Drakoen:

The ECMWF 12z has a blockbuster for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with a Miller A cyclone.



Saw the ECMWF run and was like damn looks like a repeat of snow totals from late January storm

This may not amount to much, sorry Joe....
"This past December was the warmest December on record and the most abnormally warm month on record, too.
That is until now.
This January was the warmest January on record by a large margin while also claiming the title of most anomalously warm month in 135 years of record keeping. The month was 1.13C or just a smidge more than 2F above normal. That tops December record of being 1.11C or just a smidge below 2F above average."
Link

Interesting when you think about our weather right now as an interplay between El Nino and the Arctic. Notice how much more above average the arctic is compared to El Nino regions. Persistent patterns likely tied to a warm arctic (-AO, etc) are winning out over a powerful el nino. This doesn't play well for California in the longer run.
Quoting 225. 1Zach1:


How much is it modeling for the near-western suburbs?


I have the precip maps but not the totals. The snow swath looks wide though.
Quoting 231. Climate175:



Wow. I'm not convinced since we are so far out, but two 15"+ storms 6 weeks apart would be pretty amazing around here.
Quoting 233. 1Zach1:


Wow. I'm not convinced since we are so far out, but two 15"+ storms 6 weeks apart would be pretty amazing around here.
Indeed, lets see what the next 7-8 days bring.
Quoting 233. 1Zach1:


Wow. I'm not convinced since we are so far out, but two 15"+ storms 6 weeks apart would be pretty amazing around here.
It happened in the 09-10 winter.
236. 882MB
Winston







Storm history

Not sure how I feel about being in the jackpot 7 days out but the signal is there, AO going negative and PNA positive. We have many model runs to go before the final solution.
Quoting 237. Drakoen:

Not sure how I feel about being in the jackpot 7 days out but the signal is there, AO going negative and PNA positive. We have many model runs to go before the final solution.
Totals may decrease or get higher or there may be no storm at all, all depends on the ever-moving variables.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 237. Drakoen:

Not sure how I feel about being in the jackpot 7 days out but the signal is there, AO going negative and PNA positive. We have many model runs to go before the final solution.
The Canadian along with its ensembles,the GFS ensembles and parallel have it as well.The storm shows up nicely on the Euro ensembles and parallel too.A storm will most likely be present but as to specifically where is the question.
Ian Livington @islivingston 51m
Winter finale window trying to show up in long range. Another try at good blocking early-mid March?
Quoting 157. frank727:



I agree with the cone but why include the center line that most show as ground zero. I went through Charley and lived 1 mile from the gulf by Indian rocks beach. I saw them forecast using the center line all week. The day Charley was forecasted to hit we were still ground zero. The big reporting weather services like the NHC and NWS all have ways to cover there tracks if not now they have gag orders as employees are forced not to talk. If they do they are severely reprimanded.
I always took the line in the middle of the cone,not for the storms direction so much..i always looked at the line for their predicted Strength of the storm..for me the cone was where the storm Could go.
244. vis0
Quoting 214. Gearsts:

Not yet ;)

Maybe a tug-o-war or Nino & Nina will act like good bro & sis and hold hands over ENSO 3ish?
It'll be fun to observe and share opinions.

or flip a coin

Heads Nino wins... uhhhhhhhhhh....lets go find another coin...

CREDIT:: mule - https://www.safariltd.com/ (not visited but off google image search)