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A Mostly Mild and Dry January for U.S., Punctuated by Big Storms

By: Bob Henson 4:56 PM GMT on February 11, 2016

The strong El Niño event dubbed “Godzilla” by one oceanographer behaved more like a hero than a monster in January, at least when it came to conditions across the United States. Mild and dry weather prevailed over much of the nation, and where it was wet or snowy, the moisture was generally well predicted and widely appreciated, apart from a titanic Northeast snowstorm (see below).

Last month was the 34th warmest and 36th driest January for the contiguous U.S., according to the roundup released on Wednesday by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The stark west-to-east temperature contrasts that prevailed during January 2013, 2014, and 2015 were absent this time around. Instead, there was a more muted contrast between relative mildness over the West and Northeast and below-average readings across the Southeast. This matches well with the typical outcome in January during strong El Niño events. The month’s overall mildness shows up in the lopsided 4-to-1 ratio of daily record highs to daily record lows (646 to 156).


Figure 1. State-by-state temperature rankings for January 2016. The rankings go from warmest (122) to coldest (1) for the 122 years of record-keeping from 1895 to 2016. This year, none of the contiguous U.S. states had a top-ten warmest or coldest January. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 2. State-by-state precipitation rankings for January 2016. The rankings go from wettest (122) to driest (1) for the 122 years of record-keeping from 1895 to 2016. This year, Florida had its fourth wettest January on record, and Ohio had its ninth driest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Florida and the West win the precipitation sweepstakes
Northern states are typically drier than average in a strong El Niño--especially the Ohio Valley--and that was the case in January, with the state of Ohio recording its ninth driest January on record (see Figure 2). But the dryness extended well southward across the Southern Plains and Southeast, regions that are typically moister than average during major El Niños. Florida is one place where the wet expectations from El Niño were more than met, as a potent and persistent subtropical jet helped the state notch its fourth wettest January on record. It was the wettest January ever observed in Fort Myers (12.98”) and Vero Beach (9.39”) and the second wettest in Miami (7.57”).

Moisture was also plentiful across the southwest U.S., again in line with the pattern from previous strong El Niños. The focus in California was on the northern two-thirds of the state, where several locations scored 150% to 200% of their average January precipitation. Snowpack across the Sierra Nevada--crucial for summer water supplies--grew to 113% of average by the end of January, the first above-normal value in January since 2011. Generous snowfall extended east across parts of the central and southern Great Basin, again typical of El Niño. In a more unexpected wrinkle, heavy rains and snows pushed all the way north to Washington, where El Niño midwinters tend to skew dry. With 7.45” of rain in January following 11.21” in December, Seattle ended up with its wettest December-January period on record.

According to the January 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, El Niño-fueled Pacific storms that brought heavy rainfall, snow and isolated severe weather to portions of California in early January caused flooding, mudslides and debris flows that cost at least $125 million. For comparison, El Niño storms during the great 1997 - 1998 El Niño caused nearly $500 million in damage to the state.

Among the noteworthy dry spots were Honolulu, Hawaii (second driest January on record, with 0.03” of rain); Fairbanks, Alaska (tied for driest, with only 0.01” of precipitation); and Jamestown, North Dakota (driest on record, with just a trace). All three locations have a dry tendency during El Niño midwinters.


Figure 3. The rising sun illuminates a snow-covered scene in front of the White House on January 26, 2016, in Washington, D.C. Image credit: Mark Wilson/Getty Images.


Figure 4. A woman attempts to dig her car out from beneath heavy snow in the Columbia Heights neighborhood of Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, January 26, 2016, following the weekend blizzard. Image credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images.

Weather whiplash to the max: Balmy, then buried
A wrenching shift in weather occurred across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on the weekend of January 22-24, when a previously tranquil month for millions of residents was interrupted by a ferocious, city-blanketing nor’easter that was dubbed Winter Storm Jonas by the Weather Channel. The region was just coming off record-smashing warmth during the end-of-year holidays. Jonas arrived only a few days after Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., had gotten their first flakes of snow for the winter--on January 12, a record-late date for both cities.

According to NCEI, eight of the 35 major airport weather stations in the Northeast received their heaviest single-day snowfall on record on January 23. Storm totals exceeded 25” from parts of Virginia to New York (see Figure 5 below). With some of the heaviest snow focused on the urban corridor from Washington to New York City, Jonas ended up ranked as the fourth most impactful snowstorm of the last 66 years in the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), which takes into account the area and the number of people affected by a snowstorm as well as the amount of snow that fell.

The intensity of this blizzard was evident days ahead of time, and the storm’s arrival on a weekend helped reduce its impact. Still, Jonas caused at least $2 billion in losses, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. At least 55 deaths were reported, many from traffic accidents or from heart attacks induced by shoveling snow.


Figure 5. Snowfall accumulations during the Megapolitan storm of Feb. 10-12, 1983 (left) and the blizzard of Jan. 22-24, 2016 (right). Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

It’s happened before: Epic Northeast snow during a strong El Niño
As Jon Erdman explains in a comprehensive weather.com article, some of the snowiest winters across the Northeast have occurred when El Niño is accompanied by a predominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This combo allows Arctic air to mix it up with moisture-laden flow from the tropics and a powerful subtropical jet stream. Though the NAO has mostly been in a positive mode this winter, it briefly turned negative in mid-January, just before Jonas arrived.

There’s an excellent historical precedent for a record-burying Northeast snowstorm in the midst of an otherwise placid El Niño winter. The “super” El Niño of 1982-83 was largely free of major winter storms across the Northeast, except for the memorable Megapolitan blizzard of February 10-12, 1983. Figure 5 shows the similarity between the 1983 and 2016 events. Both storms were followed by a rapid meltoff, especially in the D.C. area, where highs climbed well into the 40s and 50s for at least 10 days after each storm cleared out.

We’ll be back with a new post by Friday afternoon.

Bob Henson




Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

and too add too the EL Nino blog above


El Niño remains among strongest ever recorded, but California impacts (so far) a bit different than anticipated


Link
Got that one in w/o me knowing it was there, thanks for the updates.....
February 2016 El Nio update: Q & A%u2026and some Thursday-morning quarterbacking

Excerpts:

Despite getting a little boost from some strong winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean in January, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that drive El Nio have likely peaked.

What%u2019s next?

The official El Nio/Southern Oscillation forecast says it%u2019s likely the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions (sea surface temperature in the Nio3.4 region dropping below the 0.5-above-normal threshold) in the late spring. The longer-term outlook for early fall is slightly favoring La Nia conditions by September-November, which would be consistent with the historical tendency for strong El Nio events to be followed by La Nia.
Thanks for the January summary, Bob. It was definitely cooler than normal in Alabama last month but also dries, which isn't supposed to happen in an El Nino year. Of course, we did have record rainfall in December, so maybe the atmosphere was just rained out over us in January.

What happened to the yellowish highlight when you post a new blog? Now it looks like the notice I get with any other blog, and I don't see it as easily.
Quoting 3. nrtiwlnvragn:

February 2016 El Niño update: Q & A…and some Thursday-morning quarterbacking

Excerpts:

Despite getting a little boost from some strong winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean in January, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that drive El Niño have likely peaked.

What’s next?

The official El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast says it’s likely the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions (sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region dropping below the 0.5°-above-normal threshold) in the late spring. The longer-term outlook for early fall is slightly favoring La Niña conditions by September-November, which would be consistent with the historical tendency for strong El Niño events to be followed by La Niña. Comp
So, these experts are saying this El Nino may not have been the Super El Gordo El Nino of all time after all? And that we are now headed to at least neutral conditions in the next couple of months or so rather than this El Nino lasting until fall? The STS Forecasting Center is going to have to take a look at this one.
Excellent summary Mr. Henson; This matches well with the typical outcome in January during strong El Niño events.

Mild winters are generally good because it reduces some of the bitterness for millions across the US and helps reduce winter heating bills for those on fixed incomes. Conversely, and as shown on many media reports, winter wear-clothing retailers in the NE particularly took a huge hit economically because of the very warm December.

The best thing so far from this particular El Nino is the snowpack for the California reservoirs; for any region that is dependent on snow pack for spring water consumption, a dry mild El Nino could be a potential disaster. On that note, here is today's drought index for the US:
Current U.S. Drought Monitor



this EL Nino for CA has turned from a classice strong EL nino too a Modoki EL nino
IRI ENSO Forecast
2016 February Quick Look
Published: February 11, 2016

A monthly summary of the status of El Nio, La Nia, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)







If wunderground would be so kind as to reset my Patrap account log in info back to the default settings, I'd much appreciate it.

Blogging as a swamp rat is freeing, but alas, not quite my style,

Thanx.

Patrick
Quoting 8. Tazmanian:

this EL Nino for CA has turned from a classice strong EL nino too a Modoki EL nino


and has you can see that this is a Modoki EL nino has it has been a vary wet fall and winter in OR and WA with well above norml in classic EL Nino years that area up there sould be dry why CA is vary wet so far we have had this weak to mod storms this classic strong EL nino is a bust not all strong EL nino will be wet ones in CA it seems like CA may due better in weak to mod too strong LA Nino years due too strong AR events that state may see pluse in LA Nino years most of the time are snow levels are march lower
Quoting 12. Tazmanian:



and has you can see that this is a Modoki EL nino has it has been a vary wet fall and winter in OR and WA with well above norml in classic EL Nino years that area up there sould be dry why CA is vary wet so far we have had this weak to mod storms this classic strong EL nino is a bust not all strong EL nino will be wet ones in CA it seems like CA may due better in weak to mod too strong LA Nino years due too strong AR events that state may see pluse in LA Nino years most of the time are snow levels are march lower


I don't think you can call el nino as it has been or as it is now modoki by any means.......strong el nino's..while not normal...have provided above average precip in the northwest and eluded so cal before....however.....if you trust the cfsv2....we could see modoki conditions this summer......

Quoting 11. nutria:

If wunderground would be so kind as to reset my Patrap account log in info back to the default settings, I'd much appreciate it.

Thanx.

Patrick



for the low low price of 49.99 we can reset your account..but wait...that's not all...for just another 19.99 we'll give you your comments back too...but wait....we're still not done....we'll double your order...that's right...patrap will be back and so will patrap 2.5.....keep one for yourself and give one to a friend...they make perfect birthday or wedding gifts
Quoting 13. ricderr:



I don't think you can call el nino as it has been or as it is now modoki by any means.......strong el nino's..while not normal...have provided above average precip in the northwest and eluded so cal before....however.....if you trust the cfsv2....we could see modoki conditions this summer......





this summer? how about right now?


Quoting 14. ricderr:




for the low low price of 49.99 we can reset your account..but wait...that's not all...for just another 19.99 we'll give you your comments back too...but wait....we're still not done....we'll double your order...that's right...patrap will be back and so will patrap 2.5.....keep one for yourself and give one to a friend...they make perfect birthday or wedding gifts



dos that have free shipping ?
Quoting 11. nutria:

If wunderground would be so kind as to reset my Patrap account log in info back to the default settings, I'd much appreciate it.

Thanx.

Patrick



you know chum....i just don't trust that nutria guy...he reminds me of someone else...not really sure exactly...but yes....i'm guessing he's a former blogger.....fresca?
Quoting 11. nutria:

If wunderground would be so kind as to reset my Patrap account log in info back to the default settings, I'd much appreciate it.

Thanx.

Patrick



in the mean time am king TAZ has for has oh has the most commits now on WU wish means am 1st
Quoting 15. Tazmanian:




this summer? how about right now?





but it's still above average...however...it's tanking fast......
Quoting 8. Tazmanian:

this EL Nino for CA has turned from a classice strong EL nino too a Modoki EL nino
This is no Modoki.
Quoting 19. ricderr:



but it's still above average...however...it's tanking fast......
Like a wave it goes down every time new wwb and Kelvin wave moves.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
Cold anomalies extended farther east in 1998 at this time in the trop Pac than this yr. #Elnino may diminish slower.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago Denver, CO
Depth of 20C water across the tropical Pacific at lowest levels since 2013. #ElNino demise imminent?
ric,
Seems I used a old Pre-Katrina e-mail at AOL for my Log in mail when I became a member in July 05, and when I went with a re-set, it sent it there instead .

So I get AOL on the phone to reactivate the old AOL e-mail account which Id like to have as there is pre and post Katrina e-mails I'd like to have for reference.

All for $24.99 a month the er, Tech Guy says.

So I'll be nutria for a spell until they can sort it out.
Arctic outbreaks have had a little more sting this January/February than 1982-83 and particularly 1997-98 which
was remarkably free of them. I still wouldn't call it "brutal" or "severe" but it's not as mild as those years. December of course was in a class by itself for heat!
BTW for what it's worth El Nino springs in the Mid Atlantic tend to be cool and wet. (beware small sample size!)
Quoting 91. Patrap:

Published on Jan 20, 2016

This video from NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) shows how Earth has warmed from 1880 through 2015, showing 5-year running averages through the period. Blue is cooler and red is hotter. The overall trend should be clear.







If we're going to have a rain storm next week,then I'd much rather have this storm stay off shore.This storm appears to be the last chance of any real snow this winter as the pattern shows above normal temperatures after Monday.What a waste of cold and precipitation.Snowzilla was the only thing that saved this otherwise pathetic winter.I'm looking forward to hurricane season as things are setting up in the Atlantic's favor so far(diminishing el nino and warmer sst).Hopefully we get a beauty like Igor in the Atlantic that,while at his prime was over the open ocean affecting no one.
I remember when I had Compuserve then went to AOL, then Verizon. And now plan on never changing. The Dial up days when the computer made all those noises screeching and crackling. I think most of us was thinking wth is this internet all about. It was slow and had to wait for the pics and everything to go down the screen to fully load, was ridiculous. Don't miss those days at all.

Get your AOL account back Patrap!! lol
The Koch Brothers Are Now Funding The Bundy Land Seizure Agenda

The political network of the conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch signaled last week that it is expanding its financial and organizational support for a coalition of anti-government activists and militants who are working to seize and sell America’s national forests, monuments, and other public lands.

The disclosure, made through emails sent by the American Lands Council and Koch-backed group Federalism in Action to their members, comes as the 40-day armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon is winding to an end.


Link
Quoting 28. washingtonian115:

If we're going to have a rain storm next week,then I'd much rather have this storm stay off shore.This storm appears to be the last chance of any real snow this winter as the pattern shows above normal temperatures after Monday.What a waste of cold and precipitation.Snowzilla was the only thing that saved this otherwise pathetic winter.I'm looking forward to hurricane season as things are setting up in the Atlantic's favor so far(diminishing el nino and warmer sst).Hopefully we get a beauty like Igor in the Atlantic that,while at his prime was over the open ocean affecting no one.


A lot can happen in the five weeks to Mid March.
polar front in bound from northern Ontario temps will fall to -25c or colder for all of southern Ontario within 24 hrs from now

Extreme cold weather alert

Watch for cold related symptoms and complaints which include:
- Respiratory: shortness of breath, wheezing and cough
- Cardiovascular: chest pain and arrhythmias
- Circulation: colour change of finger and toes, pain, numbness and tickling sensation in extremities
- Muscle: pain, stiffness, swelling, restricted movement, weakness
- Skin: itching, pale.
If you experience these symptoms when exposed to the cold, move indoors and begin warming.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Saw your temp earlier, that was nasty. Stay warm Keeper!!!!
Quoting 35. PedleyCA:

Saw your temp earlier, that was nasty. Stay warm Keeper!!!!
yeah Friday night into Saturday morning will be our coldest point expecting lows of - 23c or below Friday night and again Saturday night winds will be 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts in bands of squalls off the lead of the grt lakes very cold wind chills likely
temps at airport as of 2 pm

Temperature:

12.9°F

Dewpoint:

-6.2°F

Humidity:

42%

Wind:

NW 22 gust 31 mph

Wind Chill:

-6
temps now on my pws 11.3f chill -6.5f
todays weather forecast


got all eight boilers running hot just toasty inside 77f
Good evening with some aftermath of this wet winter in northwestern Europe (if the UK can still be counted in, lol):
UK's winter floods create 30,000 tonnes of landfill waste
Furniture, kitchen goods and carpets ‘contaminated’ by floodwater can’t be recycled and will cost councils over an estimated £2 million in landfill tax
Press Association/The Guardian, Thursday 11 February 2016 06.01 GMT
Almost 30,000 tonnes of damaged household goods have had to be dumped in landfill following devastating winter floods, town hall chiefs have said.
A snapshot analysis by the Local Government Association (LGA) estimates councils have been landed with a £2.25m landfill tax bill as a result of the clear-up after the floods.
Waste ranging from ruined furniture and carpets to broken freezers, fridges and washing machines from around 16,500 homes and businesses flooded in December is classed as “contaminated” and cannot be recycled.
Instead, the floodwater-contaminated waste ends up in landfill where it faces a levy, calculated at just over £82 a tonne, for being buried in the ground. ...
42. Gearsts
3:04 PM EST on February 11, 2016

Don't show Scott those pictures :)
2015 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years

This graphic compares the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2015 (black line) to what were ultimately the six warmest years on record: 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature, the February value is the average of both January and February, and so on.

Quoting 21. Gearsts:

Like a wave it goes down every time new wwb and Kelvin wave moves.
Speaking of waves, Albert was right again, even though he'd started to doubt himself. Gravity waves from black holes colliding were detected by upgraded LIGO instrument.

Meanwhile, very sunny today in S C IL after light dusting yesterday from NW, another expected tonight, some of our coldest temps this year Sat morning, then snow again on Sun, wouldn't mind a good one. But, w/ temps rapidly warming near 60 by week's end, probably better if not too heavy.
Quoting 28. washingtonian115:

If we're going to have a rain storm next week,then I'd much rather have this storm stay off shore.This storm appears to be the last chance of any real snow this winter as the pattern shows above normal temperatures after Monday.What a waste of cold and precipitation.Snowzilla was the only thing that saved this otherwise pathetic winter.I'm looking forward to hurricane season as things are setting up in the Atlantic's favor so far(diminishing el nino and warmer sst).Hopefully we get a beauty like Igor in the Atlantic that,while at his prime was over the open ocean affecting no one.
Yea, looking like next week after the cold/storm, we start ticking up to warm temps.
Quoting 42. Gearsts:


If the warming waters off West Africa keeps up and holds steady, those waves are really going to have a fun time.
Quoting 24. nutria:

ric,
Seems I used a old Pre-Katrina e-mail at AOL for my Log in mail when I became a member in July 05, and when I went with a re-set, it sent it there instead .

So I get AOL on the phone to reactivate the old AOL e-mail account which Id like to have as there is pre and post Katrina e-mails I'd like to have for reference.

All for $24.99 a month the er, Tech Guy says.

So I'll be nutria for a spell until they can sort it out.

Nutria in Spanish is dem things dat live in da rivers, sometimes.
Otters!
Ice..great..

NWS, Wilmington, NC (Winter Weather Advisory)

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
2 questions.....  This next storm according to the NWS of Tennessee is going to be a Miller A.  Now i live in Calhoun Ga, just 50 miles south of Chattanooga.  Can you tell me what the models are showing for me as far as precip? I am hoping for a decent snow, although i understand i might get rain on top of that snow and then maybe a dash more snow to finish.  Let me tell you why i need a good snow.  We HAVE NOT HAD ONE YET....

And that leads to question 2.  A local MET from Atlanta Glenn Burns just mentioned that after this system there would a warm up and climate change(as we would be in an early spring and winter was over) and he did not see any more cold through spring?  Now that did not make sense to me.
Quoting 49. PlazaRed:


Nutria in Spanish is dem things dat live in da rivers, sometimes.
Otters!
We calls dem river rats ober in my neck of da swamps. :-)

I don't think they are related to otters. They apparently have good fur for making into hats though, if you want a hat covered in rat fur.
Quoting 49. PlazaRed:


Nutria in Spanish is dem things dat live in da rivers, sometimes.
Otters!


They are large (~20 pounds) herbivorous rodents native to South America but introduced into the U.S where
they thrived and are now an invasive species.
Quoting 51. lostinohio:

2 questions.....  This next storm according to the NWS of Tennessee is going to be a Miller A.  Now i live in Calhoun Ga, just 50 miles south of Chattanooga.  Can you tell me what the models are showing for me as far as precip? I am hoping for a decent snow, although i understand i might get rain on top of that snow and then maybe a dash more snow to finish.  Let me tell you why i need a good snow.  We HAVE NOT HAD ONE YET....

And that leads to question 2.  A local MET from Atlanta Glenn Burns just mentioned that after this system there would a warm up and climate change(as we would be in an early spring and winter was over) and he did not see any more cold through spring?  Now that did not make sense to me.

Looks like you could have snow, or sleet, or freezing rain, or just plain rain, or some combination all of them. There's no way to really pin down precipitation types yet, and the best you can hope for in terms of some certainty is maybe twelve hours before the onset of the storm. This does not look like a big time snow event. More of a nasty mess event. For number 2, Mr. Burns was making a prediction far in excess of any scientific backup.
Quoting 45. nutria:

2015 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years

This graphic compares the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2015 (black line) to what were ultimately the six warmest years on record: 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature, the February value is the average of both January and February, and so on.


This one covers the whole year. The direction of the line didn't improve after record December temperatures.

Quoting 53. georgevandenberghe:



They are large (~20 pounds) herbivorous rodents native to South America but introduced into the U.S where
they thrived and are now an invasive species.

I thought they were called coy-pues.
Big rat type things.
Nutrias here are otters and they live in rivers a lot of the time a bit like beavers which we don't have.
I used to have a colony of them at the bottom of my garden near the river. They have claws like cats a bit, are grey and their faces have whiskers. Not to be confused with mongoose which are called melon here and also like to live near and in the river beds.
On the Google thing it says that Nutrias are otters, not coy-pues. I don't know how to spell, Coy-pue!

Link

This line is from here:-
Two names are commonly used in English for Myocastor coypus. The name "nutria" is generally used in North America, in Asia, and throughout countries of the former Soviet Union; however, in Spanish-speaking countries, the word "nutria" refers to the otter.

Link

Misuse of the word Nutria. Should be coypu!

Anyway its a quiet night here after a day of rain ( doubtless the Nutrias will be glad of it!) and nothing to report from our zone as all the activity is as almost always taking place in the north of Europe.
issued forecast 30 mins ago for my area from environment Canada

Fri, 12 Feb Increasing cloudiness. 60 percent chance of flurries in the afternoon. Wind west 30 km/h gusting to 50. High minus 4.
Night Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Clearing after midnight. Wind west 30 km/h gusting to 50 becoming north 40 gusting to 60 in the evening. Low minus 23. Wind chill minus 38.
Quoting 57. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

issued forecast 30 mins ago from environment Canada

Fri, 12 Feb Increasing cloudiness. 60 percent chance of flurries in the afternoon. Wind west 30 km/h gusting to 50. High minus 4.
Night Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Clearing after midnight. Wind west 30 km/h gusting to 50 becoming north 40 gusting to 60 in the evening. Low minus 23. Wind chill minus 38.


KOTG.
I was in Toronto last year about the 12th of Feb and the temps were about minus -20 /C, so its not that different from last year, except that this year its been warmer leading up to mid Feb.

I took this photo at Niagara falls on the 11th of Feb last year, note the ice and the icycles hanging from the roof over the window of the café.

Quoting 31. georgevandenberghe:



A lot can happen in the five weeks to Mid March.


A lot can change in the 5 days leading up to an event.
P S,
Oil is down to about $26 a barrel!
Bound to affect something or other soon at this rate of decline.
Not to mention (but we might sneak a word in) the stock markets are down up to 25% across the world recently and lots of oil rigs being taken out of production.
This low price will mean massive increases in the use of petrol(gas) and other oil based products so we can expect a surge in the CO2 levels!
Added to this the population is increasing, so there are more users.
I could go on for hours but its just another rave.
Makes me want to live another 50 years to see the beginning of the outcome of all this.
As Winston Churchill said. "This is not the end! Its not even the beginning of the end! Maybe its the end of the beginning?"

Link
Quoting 59. Drakoen:



A lot can change in the 5 days leading up to an event.
Model seem to be unanimous about a mostly rain event and the Euro hasn't budged.


Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 2h2 hours ago
If next week sys holds off thru Mon. setup no good. High is offshore. Heights are backwards to north. Arctic air stubborn not good argument.
Quoting 56. PlazaRed:

The name "nutria" is generally used in North America, in Asia, and throughout countries of the former Soviet Union; however, in Spanish-speaking countries, the word "nutria" refers to the otter.

Thanks for this, Plaza. Wondered about the same thing, as google and youtube search came up with quite different animals, lol. Pat should declare what he wants to be as long as his old handle is down: big rat (quite cute though) or otter? :-)
Thanx barbamz, "nutria" blogging is kinda freeing I'm finding.

This is a great read on the nutria in Louisiana.

The Nutria in Louisiana:
A Current and Historical Perspective
FINAL REPORT


Tabasco tycoon L.A. McIlhenny kept a nutria ranch on Avery Island, LA where between 12 and 20 individuals escaped in 1938. 150 additional nutria escaped from this island during a Hurricane in 1940.

otter be more consistency in naming animals
Although not exactly weather related (yet; who knows ...), this new proof is all over the science news worldwide, so at least one link should be in here, too:
Gravitational waves: A triumph for big science
Jonathan Amos Science correspondent, BBC, 6 hours ago
The first direct detection of gravitational waves is without doubt one of the most remarkable breakthroughs of our time. The Advanced LIGO laboratories in the US states of Washington and Louisiana have traced the warping of space from the merger of two black holes about 1.3 billion light-years from Earth.
It represents the last great confirmation of Einstein's ideas, and opens the door to a completely new way to investigate the Universe. Astronomy and other fields of science are now entering a new era. ....
Will this detection win a Nobel Prize?
It is nailed on. A certainty. As ever, the debate will be about the recipients and their place in the chain of discovery. Who will be regarded as having made the most significant contribution? Will the recipients be theorists or experimentalists in that chain? One thing is clear: it is in the nature of science today that the really big questions tend to be answered with the aid of really big machines. And without the LIGO Collaboration's many hundreds of participants, who work across diverse fields on a range of complex technologies, this moment would never have come.
Quoting 64. aquak9:

otter be more consistency in naming animals
"No pun intended" lol
LMAO @ nutria
cause how long have I known you?
hahaha

this is great- keep the name, keep the name ( that is in no way meant to be mean at all )
Quoting 63. nutria:

Thanx barbamz, "nutria" blogging is kinda freeing I'm finding.

Thanks, Pat. Here is a special one for you:

Caption on youtube: July 14, 2008; Molly was an unusual pet nutria rat. She was raised from an infant and has not been seen since hurricane Katrina devestated our community.
That is quiet a bit of rain and wind.

Thanks for mentioning my area (Fort Myers, Fl.) for setting a record for the wettest January.
Here's a local rainfall map Link


Quoting 54. sar2401:

Looks like you could have snow, or sleet, or freezing rain, or just plain rain, or some combination all of them. There's no way to really pin down precipitation types yet, and the best you can hope for in terms of some certainty is maybe twelve hours before the onset of the storm. This does not look like a big time snow event. More of a nasty mess event. For number 2, Mr. Burns was making a prediction far in excess of any scientific backup.


Sar, I saw that same commercial we were discussing a couple times today. They specifically said in the commercial that their radar identified the rotation before anyone else.
In addition, they specifically say that their app warned people 18 minutes before the NWS, and that the tornado was already on the ground by the time the other new stations issued a warning for the cell.

I wish I could find the commercial online and link it, but it's only running on local T.V. as far as I can tell.

Well there goes winter.Now time to look forward to hurricane season.Or maybe take a trip down there to CariBoy's place until June :)
Link
Last comment from me tonight, concerning the topic of the previous blog about El Nino impacts:
El Niño is causing havoc in Central America, Asia and Africa
Euronews, by Everton Gayle, 11/02 15:43 CET
El Niño is having a disastrous effect on countries in Central America, parts of Africa and Asia, which have been hit by a drought that is generating a severe food crisis.
In Haiti, 3.6 million people are facing food insecurity with farmers losing a significant part of the harvest.
Roger Bonifacio, a World Food Programme climate expert, says this has been caused by El Niño that started in 2015, but he says: “Its effects however will be felt all the way to early 2017 and its effects have been widespread geographically. El Niño has caused impacts on the growing seasons of Central America – Haiti.
“Ethiopia where it registered one of the driest seasons in the last 50 years all the way to Indonesia and Papua New Guinea which again has suffered one of the major droughts on record.”
The 2015 El Niño, was one of the strongest ever, and more powerful than the record event in 1997. The phenomenon occurs every three to five years on average, when the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean warm significantly and impact global weather patterns.
In Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, ten million are facing the consequences of the worst drought in 50 years.
The country says it will need hundreds of millions in food aid over the coming weeks to prevent a “catastrophic escalation” in malnutrition.
Meanwhile Zimbabwe has declared a state of disaster in parts of the country. ...

Good night, everyone.
Very light fluffy snow falling in Sioux Falls now. Very peaceful. No wind thankfully, otherwise visibility would be an issue. I've been trapped in my office most of the afternoon so didn't even realize it had started snowing. My untrained eyeball estimate is probably about 1/2 to 3/4 an inch so far.
Quoting 60. PlazaRed:

P S,
Oil is down to about $26 a barrel!
Bound to affect something or other soon at this rate of decline.
Not to mention (but we might sneak a word in) the stock markets are down up to 25% across the world recently and lots of oil rigs being taken out of production.
This low price will mean massive increases in the use of petrol(gas) and other oil based products so we can expect a surge in the CO2 levels!
Added to this the population is increasing, so there are more users.
I could go on for hours but its just another rave.
Makes me want to live another 50 years to see the beginning of the outcome of all this.
As Winston Churchill said. "This is not the end! Its not even the beginning of the end! Maybe its the end of the beginning?"

Link
I totally understand what you're saying, but there is definitely a side of me that smiles when I drive past the gas stations advertising $1.29 a gallon.
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:


Well there goes winter.Now time to look forward to hurricane season.Or maybe take a trip down there to CariBoy's place until June :)
Link


That's funny. I used to think 50 degrees was the kiss of death for my Winter fun when I lived in the D.C. area. I loved to play ice hockey on the local lake. If I saw a five day forecast with a high of 50 degrees in it, I would get upset. I knew my Winter fun on the lake would soon be coming to an end.
Quoting 78. LuckySD:

I totally understand what you're saying, but there is definitely a side of me that smiles when I drive past the gas stations advertising $1.29 a gallon.

I understand, things are considered great here as well with prices down in my area now to only $5.10 cents a US gallon, or in our terms about 1.20 Euros a litre.
These are the lowest prices for about 8 years. We have been paying up to about $9 a US galloon recently, so you can imagine the elation amongst the Europeans?
Even the English are only now paying about $6 a US gallon, so they have a lot to smile about as well down from nearly $10 a US gallon a year or so ago.
Global economics is a fascinating thing!

On the other side of the coin of course, we in Spain pay about $1.50 to $3 for a bottle of wine, and about $5 for a bottle of whiskey, so I suppose its swings and roundabouts, unless you are in the UK where everything is expensive, except fish and chips!
Quoting 79. Sfloridacat5:



That's funny. I used to think 50 degrees was the kiss of death for my Winter fun when I lived in the D.C. area. I loved to play ice hockey on the local lake. If I saw a five day forecast with a high of 50 degrees in it, I would get upset. I knew my Winter fun on the lake would soon be coming to an end.
The sun angle has gotten higher and our sunsets are getting later and later.The average daily temperature starts to go up to about 50 degrees come late February.I think this will be the last cold snap of the winter with these type of cold temperatures.The storm next week was our last chance to get any significant snow but now it seems we'll get nothing but rain.
Figured I had to pop in here on the fourth anniversary of my join date... Unfortunately much of what I was going to say has already been taken! Was going to talk about how it looks to me like El Nino may be getting ready for, and perhaps is already starting, a rapid decline. The difference in the individual Nino regions is striking. It's fading from east to west. It may not quite be Modoki, but if you look at the difference between the central Pacific and closer to South America, it isn't far from it. That's not to say this will ever go down as a Modoki event, it was very far from it for the meat of the event, albeit not as east-based as 1997-98, but in the course of rapid transition (by ENSO standards), it often takes on that Modoki look. Once those anomalies farther west start dropping, they'll drop fast, the climate models generally show this well. May take another couple months, but it's coming, and we should be back to neutral for most of summer with a developing La Nina a good possibility.

Hope everyone is well here, been very busy myself but still reading/lurking when able and not going anywhere :)

Quoting 77. LuckySD:

Very light fluffy snow falling in Sioux Falls now. Very peaceful. No wind thankfully, otherwise visibility would be an issue. I've been trapped in my office most of the afternoon so didn't even realize it had started snowing. My untrained eyeball estimate is probably about 1/2 to 3/4 an inch so far.
It was nice looking out at that kind of snow from a nice warm room when I lived in snow country. As long as you didn't have to drive in it and fight the other drivers trying to kill you, it was lovely. :-)
Wind chill Watch for my area:

... Wind chill watch in effect from late Saturday night through
Sunday morning...

The National Weather Service in gray has issued a wind chill
watch... which is in effect from late Saturday night through
Sunday morning.

* Hazard types... dangerous wind chill readings.

* Wind chill... as low as 32 below due to temperatures 10 below
to 1 above zero... and winds northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph.

* Timing... late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

* Impacts... frostbite and hypothermia if unprotected from the
cold.

* Winds... northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Temperatures... 10 below to 1 above zero.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A wind chill watch means the there is the potential for a
combination of very cold air and strong winds to create
dangerously low wind chill values. Monitor the latest forecasts
and warnings for updates on this situation.



Quoting 73. Sfloridacat5:



Sar, I saw that same commercial we were discussing a couple times today. They specifically said in the commercial that their radar identified the rotation before anyone else.
In addition, they specifically say that their app warned people 18 minutes before the NWS, and that the tornado was already on the ground by the time the other new stations issued a warning for the cell.

I wish I could find the commercial online and link it, but it's only running on local T.V. as far as I can tell.
I'd really like to know what constituted a warning in that station's mind. It seems beyond belief to me that the station's radar could have been so good (or the NWS radar so bad) that they could have issued any kind of warning 18 minutes before the NWS. We've had one or two instances where I've seen a tornado on radar five minutes before the NWS warning, and that seemed like an extraordinarily long time to me. I'm surprised the local NWS office hasn't issued a statement about these claims.
Beautiful day today in the south! A warm high of 73 with winds blowing steadily at 10-15 mph. Not a cloud in the sky. Birds were out and singing thinking it's the Spring. Sorry but they're wrong. Beginning to wonder if a significant ice/snow storm is possible next week at all now. I guess we'll find out!
Quoting 51. lostinohio:

2 questions.....  This next storm according to the NWS of Tennessee is going to be a Miller A.  Now i live in Calhoun Ga, just 50 miles south of Chattanooga.  Can you tell me what the models are showing for me as far as precip? I am hoping for a decent snow, although i understand i might get rain on top of that snow and then maybe a dash more snow to finish.  Let me tell you why i need a good snow.  We HAVE NOT HAD ONE YET....

And that leads to question 2.  A local MET from Atlanta Glenn Burns just mentioned that after this system there would a warm up and climate change(as we would be in an early spring and winter was over) and he did not see any more cold through spring?  Now that did not make sense to me.

Sure he didn't say "pattern change"?
Quoting 85. sar2401:

I'd really like to know what constituted a warning in that station's mind. It seems beyond belief to me that the station's radar could have been so good (or the NWS radar so bad) that they could have issued any kind of warning 18 minutes before the NWS. We've had one or two instances where I've seen a tornado on radar five minutes before the NWS warning, and that seemed like an extraordinarily long time to me. I'm surprised the local NWS office hasn't issued a statement about these claims.

Isn't this Radar way closer to where the Tornado was than the other NWS Radars are? I was under the impression that the NWS radars were at a distance where the beam was to high in atmosphere to tell if it was on the ground.
Link of CPC released today.

Link

ENSO Alert System
Status:
El Niño
Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to
La Niña conditions during the fall. Indicative of a strong El Niño, sea surface temperature (SSTs) anomalies were in excess of 2°C across the east – central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January (Fig. 1). The Niño
indices in the eastern Pacific declined, while Niño - 3.4 and Niño - 4 were nearly unchanged (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific increased due to a downwelling Kelvin wave (Fig. 3), but
toward the end of the month weakened again in association with the eastward shift of below - average temperatures at depth in the central Pacific (Fig. 4). Also, low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific.
The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values
remained negative but weakened relative to last month. Convection
remained much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific
and suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies
reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.

Most models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer2016 (Fig. 6). Thereafter,
the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains
.
A transition to ENSO - neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3 - month period).

Quoting 60. PlazaRed:

P S,
Oil is down to about $26 a barrel!
Bound to affect something or other soon at this rate of decline.
Not to mention (but we might sneak a word in) the stock markets are down up to 25% across the world recently and lots of oil rigs being taken out of production.
This low price will mean massive increases in the use of petrol(gas) and other oil based products so we can expect a surge in the CO2 levels!
Added to this the population is increasing, so there are more users.
I could go on for hours but its just another rave.
Makes me want to live another 50 years to see the beginning of the outcome of all this.
As Winston Churchill said. "This is not the end! Its not even the beginning of the end! Maybe its the end of the beginning?"

Link
I don't think we'll see a massive increase in gasoline consumption. Most of the decrease in demand has been inevitable as the world has gone from 15 mpg cars to 30 mpg cars. Even the giant pickup trucks with a stick shift can get 20 mpg on the road. My brother has a 1968 Chevelle SS with a 396 cubic inch engine that cranks out 375 horsepower. He has to buy octane booster for his gas since it was built to run on real 100 octane gas, something that's mostly sold at airports today. That car gets just about 8 mpg in the city and not much more on the highway. I now drive a 2006 Suzuki Grand Vitara SUV that gets 24 mpg in the city and 28 mpg highway. and runs on regular. My former vehicle was a Ford Expedition that barely got 13 mpg and needed premium. Demand for gasoline is going to continue to decrease as we get a larger mix of hybrids and electric vehicles on the road. The oil companies are in big trouble, and it's only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait cutting back production that will temporarily save them.
Quoting 88. PedleyCA:


Isn't this Radar way closer to where the Tornado was than the other NWS Radars are? I was under the impression that the NWS radars were at a distance where the beam was to high in atmosphere to tell if it was on the ground.
I understand the NWS is further away, but even a 1.45 degree elevation shouldn't be enough to completely miss a tornado on the ground for 18 minutes. If they are using the very first time their radar identified rotation as the basis for 18 minutes, that might make sense, but it's still not a warning. There were many rotating storms that day, and the NWS doesn't issue a warning based only on rotation.

Speaking of weird, the high here today was 75 after a low of 28. How's that for a diurnal range? :-)
Quoting 86. Tcwx2:

Beautiful day today in the south! A warm high of 73 with winds blowing steadily at 10-15 mph. Not a cloud in the sky. Birds were out and singing thinking it's the Spring. Sorry but they're wrong. Beginning to wonder if a significant ice/snow storm is possible next week at all now. I guess we'll find out!
The chances of us seeing ice or snow next week are about as close to zero as we can get and still leave some wiggle room. Far NE Alabama might have a shot at some snow flurries but we'll see enough Gulf return flow, and the low will be far enough north, that all we're going to get is rain. Now watch it snow and ruin my bold forecast. :-)
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:


Well there goes winter.Now time to look forward to hurricane season.Or maybe take a trip down there to CariBoy's place until June :)
Link
I am satisfied with the big Blizzard dump a few weeks ago, so after this cold spell, I will be ready for Spring.
The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for freezing rain as well as some snow and
sleet... which is in effect from 5 am to 1 PM EST Friday.

* Locations... coastal Pender... New Hanover... Brunswick...
Darlington... Florence... Marion... and Horry counties.

* Hazard types... freezing rain... snow and sleet.

* Accumulations... ice accumulation of a trace to less than a tenth
of an inch. A light coating of snow and sleet is possible.

* Timing... Friday morning through early afternoon.

* Impacts... roadways and walkways will likely become very
slippery. Bridges and overpasses will be especially dangerous.

* Winds... northeast 5 to 10 mph.

* Temperatures... around 30 degrees early Friday morning... rising
slowly through the 30s through early afternoon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain... snow...
and sleet... will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
96. vis0

Quoting 5. sar2401:

So, these experts are saying this El Nino may not have been the Super El Gordo El Nino of all time after all? And that we are now headed to at least neutral conditions in the next couple of months or so rather than this El Nino lasting until fall? The STS Forecasting Center is going to have to take a look at this one.
i think it was a super Gordo Nio but only on the eastern ENSO ~half, the western half had El Nio last year remember the Japanese Meteorological call of an El Nio. Something caused ENSO to split.

You saw in 2014 - 2015 how storms nearer to the western Pacific kept building.as if a moderate Nio was beginning but nothing (atmospherically)  connected as to eastern ENSO.

2015 - 2016  you saw Jet streams rocketing moisture in Atmospheric river like plumes towards Greenland/Europe rising temperatures as they'd wind up around LOWS in the Polar Region N/NW of Greenland.  We saw 3,  500+ yr floods feed from ENSO area moisture in Texas, Carolinas & Midwest though the first 2 before Official Nio starts.

Much of the moisture plumes went just south of Florida then bending NNE off the Eastern coastline not affecting land...

 (gotta chk Bermuda see how they rain gauged)

...or towards Washington State/ N. California.

Its like placing your finger on a garden hose to separate the 2 flows, the higher the water pressure (stronger ENSO anomalies) the further apart the streams of water separate coming out of the hose. Now what would be the
"thumb" forcing back or separating that ENSO water pressure,. There are natural reasons and them my reason, if its the **-* then we'll see more rain than expected in California & Texas in the next 2 months, if its natural reasons then CA. & TX. will stay average to dry over the next 2 months as ENSO is slowly heading towards a quasi-neutral state.

Lets observe, of course i could be 99.9% wrong.

STS forecasting center predicted lots of rain, check -strong winds, check strong tornadoes. half check. 
Sure Florida had Tornadoes but not the super destructive type, as sadly deaths more than not were near homes not built to withstand an F1 or low F2 (Fujita scale -wikipedia). Now still do not count the sunny side up omelets till their cracked as a moderate-low Nio plumes interacting with deep troughs can bring moisture towards Texas while strong winds towards Florida and force any Tropical disturbance to release its moisture towards HHjoe..

In conclusion the Nio strength was there, its the direction of the "fire hoses" that missed land mass so people think nothing happened.

In short i'm hungry, dindin calling ... my stomach collect.
The Atlantic is gearing up.....
98. vis0

Quoting 18. Tazmanian:




in the mean time am king TAZ has for has oh has the most commits now on WU wish means am 1st
yes but when you divide the amount of repeated words and take out the word "iPOD" the girth of your comments id cut in half then remove the word flagged down by 75%...uh you used flagged again 76%.


PATRAP
must've spilled some Cajun heat sauce on the keyboards   Hope ny the time this posts Patrap's login issues are corrected.

Quoting 23. RitaEvac:

Can anyone guess where the high pressure clockwise rotation is?




Just off the gulf coast of Florida

Quoting 63. nutria:

Thanx barbamz, "nutria" blogging is kinda freeing I'm finding.

This is a great read on the nutria in Louisiana.

The Nutria in Louisiana:
A Current and Historical Perspective
FINAL REPORT


Tabasco tycoon L.A. McIlhenny kept a nutria ranch on Avery Island, LA where between 12 and 20 individuals escaped in 1938. 150 additional nutria escaped from this island during a Hurricane in 1940.




http://www.food.com/recipe/smothered-nutria-cajun -style-418543
Link

Coast Guard: Storm-Battered Cruise Ship Has More Than 'Superficial' Damage
The cruise ship that cut its voyage short after getting battered by rough seas and powerful winds during a storm in the Atlantic Ocean sustained damage to a key part of its propulsion system and officials are ordering it be fixed before the ship returns to sea for its next cruise this weekend, authorities say. - more at link

There were passenger posted pics showing that only 1 azipod seemed to be working properly during the very slow return to port.

101. Tcwx2
Haha!! I know that you and I both would probably both want it to snow. We may have to drive to Pigeon Forge for the weekend :).
Quoting 92. sar2401:

The chances of us seeing ice or snow next week are about as close to zero as we can get and still leave some wiggle room. Far NE Alabama might have a shot at some snow flurries but we'll see enough Gulf return flow, and the low will be far enough north, that all we're going to get is rain. Now watch it snow and ruin my bold forecast. :-)
lol...wah?
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Chance most of southern New England has a TOP 5 all time coldest morning on Sunday. AGW senators line up. blame warming for snow, now cold
JB, proving once again

well, u know
85F here, 87 at the Airport(KRAL) ..... blog hole
Quoting 102. washingtonian115:

lol...wah?
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Chance most of southern New England has a TOP 5 all time coldest morning on Sunday. AGW senators line up. blame warming for snow, now cold


Ahem... Global doesn't mean southern New England. He's such an id%}£.
Houston in the house! How is your weather?
Quoting 106. PedleyCA:

Houston in the house! How is your weather?


Wow, if I didnt know any better I would think it was spring!
70's? It's February ...just isnt right
I want more cold weather ...fireplace and all.
I dread to think what summer will be like

Ped, you're pretty warm too
Quoting 107. justmehouston:



Wow, if I didnt know any better I would think it was spring!
70's? It's February ...just isnt right
I want more cold weather ...fireplace and all.
I dread to think what summer will be like

Ped, you're pretty warm too

Not even warm enough to use the water cooler. Just bring in cool air in the AM, then close up and ride it out.
Have the water cooler and the humidity to make it work like AC and the AC if it goes over 95(not). Haven't used the cooler. Day 4 of 80+ A few more to go.
Quoting 108. PedleyCA:


Not even warm enough to use the water cooler. Just bring in cool air in the AM, then close up and ride it out.
Have the water cooler and the humidity to make it work like AC and the AC if it goes over 95(not). Haven't used the cooler. Day 4 of 80+ A few more to go.


I have to admit that the AC clicked on this evening.
I like it in the winter when I get a break from the large electric bills.
This winter ....not so much
Quoting 100. snow2fire:

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Anthem-of-Sea s -Cruise-Ship-Storm-Damage-Coast-Guard-Inspectors-R oyal-Caribbean-368534091.html

Coast Guard: Storm-Battered Cruise Ship Has More Than 'Superficial' Damage
The cruise ship that cut its voyage short after getting battered by rough seas and powerful winds during a storm in the Atlantic Ocean sustained damage to a key part of its propulsion system and officials are ordering it be fixed before the ship returns to sea for its next cruise this weekend, authorities say. - more at link

There were passenger posted pics showing that only 1 azipod seemed to be working properly during the very slow return to port.


I've said it before and I'll say it again - you can't just copy and paste a link here, especially a long link. It gets wrecked every time. You have to use the Link (chain looking thing) at the bottom of the text box for links if you want people to be able to actually get to your link.

Those ABB Azipod electric propulsion units on the Anthem are used instead of the typical shaft connected back to a reduction gear unit in the engine room. I don't know what happened to one of the units, but my guess is that there was enough slamming of the stern to damage the bearings. There have been recurrent bearing problems with these units, and they seem particularly sensitive to repeated slamming. The good thing is they are much more easily repaired than the tradition shaft and propellor type.
Reposting info with good link - I hope.

Coast Guard: Storm-Battered Cruise Ship Has More Than 'Superficial' Damage
The cruise ship that cut its voyage short after getting battered by rough seas and powerful winds during a storm in the Atlantic Ocean sustained damage to a key part of its propulsion system and officials are ordering it be fixed before the ship returns to sea for its next cruise this weekend, authorities say.

Link
Quoting 111. snow2fire:

Reposting info with good link - I hope.

Coast Guard: Storm-Battered Cruise Ship Has More Than 'Superficial' Damage
The cruise ship that cut its voyage short after getting battered by rough seas and powerful winds during a storm in the Atlantic Ocean sustained damage to a key part of its propulsion system and officials are ordering it be fixed before the ship returns to sea for its next cruise this weekend, authorities say.

Link
The link works fine. You can test a link before you post by using the preview option at the bottom of the post box. Also works to make sure images are showing up right. It's really unfortunate that we have to go through all this rigmarole just to post a picture or have a working link. Modern web software does that automatically. We have web software from back in the early 2000's. Maybe IBM can finally get us to 2010 or something.
I'm not going to hold my breath on that one........lol
Quoting 98. vis0:


yes but when you divide the amount of repeated words and take out the word "iPOD" the girth of your comments id cut in half then remove the word flagged down by 75%...uh you used flagged again 76%.
I'm actually amazed you were able to parse Taz's words into a meaningful sentence...or two. I do feel very inferior looking at my paltry comment total though. :-)
Quoting 112. sar2401:

The link works fine. You can test a link before you post by using the preview option at the bottom of the post box. Also works to make sure images are showing up right. It's really unfortunate that we have to go through all this rigmarole just to post a picture or have a working link. Modern web software does that automatically. We have web software from back in the early 2000's. Maybe IBM can finally get us to 2010 or something.


Lol on old tech on WU. Hopefully they don't need major repairs or dry dock to address issues. It does make one think about reliability of having power when it's really needed (eg. Steering into heavy wind and big waves).
Quoting 114. sar2401:

I'm actually amazed you were able to parse Taz's words into a meaningful sentence...or two. I do feel very inferior looking at my paltry comment total though. :-)


he really made no sense at all with that comment
All that fuss over the text going squirrly when one modify's it is not a big deal. The errors encoded are mostly for commas and other, The removing of those 6 characters take like 15-30 seconds at best to fix.

Folks are lazy is what it is.

Before we had the quote feature here, one had to copy and paste in italics a quote. Which was easy too.


Blogging is dying as commenting isn't blogging,,it's commenting in someones BLOG entry.

yo'

Looks like the snow chances here in Greenville for Monday are diminishing rapidly. Looks like a strong warm nose is trying to work its way in here. Darn unless the warm nose is not as strong as predicted are snow chances are almost gone!

GFS 00z appears farther southeast with the low than it did at 18z through 90hr.
Sneaux Caster Wizard ?
Quoting 112. sar2401:

The link works fine. You can test a link before you post by using the preview option at the bottom of the post box. Also works to make sure images are showing up right. It's really unfortunate that we have to go through all this rigmarole just to post a picture or have a working link. Modern web software does that automatically. We have web software from back in the early 2000's. Maybe IBM can finally get us to 2010 or something.
it will I am sure
El nino still kicking.
125. vis0
oooooohhhhhh tonite while its still Friday in the lagging timezones it'll already be the 13th in the advanced timezones making it Friturday the twelveth-teenth.oooooohhhhhh

At that period it is been said that the King of Sneaux shall return to from being     ostracized    nutriacized, as the magic wizard - Sir-mam Eye B. of Emerald waves that magic fist into the side of the kingdom of servers.     


 POOF!  hey why i'm a wearing a dress, have frog legs and wearing a princess crown???....NOooo!?? 

hey get Taz away from me Taz is trying to put butter on my legs..ahhhhhhHHHH!

(BTW Taz did ya read the 7 or so TVs i recommended?)
126. vis0
From the Brian NewsBolt** Vault::
Prof Stephen Hawking celebrates gravitational wave discovery (video)

...oh i hope he and other scientists didn't try to to do the (sports arena) wave? (i kid cause i kare)

**(for more newsbolts scroll up a few messages,  more on Brain's blog site. Its a great morning read, goes well with any lite-snack.)

sin(as in w/o in Spanish)-sara-lee,


Sit down WxU'rs, blog has not been "upgraded" to 1999 or to accept emoticons.

WEATHER:: Looks like the cold is finding a bit of a home in the NE USofA, staying a bit longer though as wasshi115 stated the higher Sun is still warming up the pooling cold.
BBC tweeted that NW Iberia (NW Portugal mainly) could get up to 350mm rain (14 inches). So anyone here from Porto? It's going to get quite hazardous out there..
128. vis0

Quoting 124. Gearsts:

El nino still kicking.

you posted a pros secret to forecasting where the moisture will head towards shhhhhhh!!! (read lengthy versus wider those (reddish-whitish) tea leaves...if both long & wide odds for A-rivers rises exponentially
129. bwi
Looking at the 0z GFS, wow what a great positioning for a winter storm low for the DC area! But a rainstorm alas...


numerical weather prediction model for Tropical Low 09U
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
HURRICANE WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON (09F)
=========================
East Of Vanuatu
West of Fiji

At 18:00 PM FST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Three (960 hPa) located at 18.7S 171.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
130 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Eye cloud filled but discernible. Deep convection has increased with convective band wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Organization has improved in the past 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 31C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region in a low sheared environment. Outflow good. System tracking along the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge located to the east. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern, b eye surrounded by W in CMG with eye adjustment yields DT=5.5. MET=4.5 and PT=5.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Global models move the system southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 20.8S 171.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 23.0S 172.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 25.2S 175.7E - 85 knots (CAT 3) Out of Responsibility
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 09U
======================
At 1:00 PM WST, A Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 10.6S 97.8E or 205 km north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots.

The developing tropical low is expected pass northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands overnight and develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to develop to the south of the system later tonight, prior to developing into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands from midnight tonight as the system passes to the northwest. Conditions should ease later Saturday as the system moves further away from the islands.

Heavy rainfall is expected with the passage of this tropical low and during Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS 11.5S 96.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 12.4S 95.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.1S 92.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 18.2S 88.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3) Out of Responsibility

Additional Information
===================
Tropical Low 09U has been slow moving to the east and has recently turned to the south southwest, as forecast by the guidance.

Microwave and scatterometer satellite data is indicated an elongated center which has made the center position somewhat uncertain. Current intensity of 25 knots is based on Dvorak CI of 2.0, which is mainly based on MET and PAT. Scatteromenter winds indicates 25 to 30 knots in areas around the system.

Now that the system has turned to the southwest, there is good agreement between the models for a WSW track to continue. Some on of the uncertainty in the forecast positions is based on the large initial uncertainty.

Shear diagnostics indicate strong shear of about 30 knots but with reduced shear to the system which is where it is moving. With the shear being easterly and the system expected to move in a west southwest direction, system relative shear should also be reduced.

Forecast intensity is based on standard development for 72 hours [starting from T2.0]. The intensity is then forecast to plateau due to dry air wrapping around the system and moving towards cooler water. Weakening slowly from Feb 16 0000Z with system near 20.0S and colder water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Quoting 127. Arcticstuff:

BBC tweeted that NW Iberia (NW Portugal mainly) could get up to 350mm rain (14 inches). So anyone here from Porto? It's going to get quite hazardous out there..

Right, tons of mud forecast there in the next 2-3 days. Those are the last 3, regarding precipitable water content. Doesn't bode well for keeping dry over much of western Europe this weekend. Lots of snow guaranteed to fall in the Alps, and also the Pyrenean range to a lesser extent.

(Traffic's gotten chaotic in French city Bordeaux today, because the river is overflowing again in several neighborhoods, and the situation's worse than yesterday, with many roads closed now). "Bordeaux has barely avoided a major disaster : Garonne river has reached 6.64 m, only 41 cm less than the historical high from Dec. 1999 during hurricane Martin." (lachainemeteo.fr)
---
From "Africa: UN Report Reveals Devastating Human Toll of Disasters in "Hottest Year On Record" (see post 122. Balt.B.) :
"Noting that the overall disaster mortality for 2015 was down on the 10-year average of 76,424 deaths, CRED Director Debarati Guha-Sapir emphasized that early warnings are having an impact in the case of storms.
"Further investment in this area is warranted by these numbers," she said."

Good news, we're not powerless when facing natural disasters. There is some progress in that area at least.
136. vis0
Google search for weather not needed ya have WxU, but whatever ya do don't search for the Google valentine gift per state pink USmap, link at my zilly site
137. vis0
talk bout worst case stubborn fire taking over blocks in New Jersey in this cold fire hoses will be busting
minus 3 degrees F this morning. Looking around the area it is a bit colder here on the hill than in the valley which is usually the opposite. The next couple days will be rough.
Winston's switched overdrive mode on.

Quoting 20. Gearsts:

This is no Modoki.

Maybe not now, but will be soon enough.
Quoting 103. nutria:

JB, proving once again

well, u know
Quoting 136. vis0:

Google search for weather not needed ya have WxU, but whatever ya do don't search for the Google valentine gift per state pink USmap, link at my zilly site

At least people in Alabama searched most often for Lord Byron poetry. Seems kind of unbelievable, but, if it's on the internet, it must be true, right? :-)

Talked to my sister in Cleveland last night. It's supposed to be 10 degrees with 40 mph winds and blowing snow today. The weather forecast described it as "brisk". For me, it would be more like "deadly". She's a home health aide, and one of the people she takes care of has a son and daughter in law that want to go out for Valentine's dinner tonight. She volunteered to watch over the Alzheimer's afflicted father for them so they could do so. Now she doesn't really want to fight her way through the snow tonight if she can help it. I told her to just wait until they start closing all the roads and it would probably become a moot point. Just one more reason I don't live in Cleveland now.
Quoting 137. vis0:

talk bout worst case stubborn fire taking over blocks in New Jersey in this cold fire hoses will be busting

It was apparently a GSA warehouse. It looks like it must have been used to store oily rags or something. That's the kind of fire that you can tell is going to burn the place to the ground when you first drive up on it.
Quoting 141. NativeSun:


And the nutria thanks you for retweeting his post for no apparent reason.
And another thing. Why do I have to do at least one refresh every time I post to see if my post actually showed up? I didn't have this problem before the last middle of the day "upgrade".
Quoting 129. bwi:

Looking at the 0z GFS, wow what a great positioning for a winter storm low for the DC area! But a rainstorm alas...


Ugh, so disappointing, looks like it really could have been a contender.
Quoting 145. sar2401:

And another thing. Why do I have to do at least one refresh every time I post to see if my post actually showed up? I didn't have this problem before the last middle of the day "upgrade".

I was hoping the upgrade would include live comments, so I wouldn't have to refresh every time to see what new was posted.
CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL PAN OUT HAVE
DECREASED IN THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
CANCEL IT OUTRIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...THE AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS ANTICIPATED AND INDEED WE
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH. BENEATH THIS CLOUD COVER WE HAVE
SEEN SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE JUMPS...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR SO
IN A FEW PLACES
Good Morning. As usual, here is the Conus forecast for today and current look across the board: big polar air dip in the upper mid-west along the jet as already noted:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database







Regarding the midAtlantic storm Mon - isn't this one of those cases where a shift 50nm east would change the complexion of the event immensely? Seems there is still hope to avoid Icemageddon here on the farm...
And finally the current doppler:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

And the short primer on the lake effect off of the Great Lakes when we look a the possibility of heavy snow in that area as the polar air dips in:

http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/lakesn ow.html

The Recipe for Lake-Effect Storms

Lake-effect snow forms in the winter when cold air masses move over warmer lake waters.  As the warm lake water heats the bottom layer of air, lake moisture evaporates into the cold air. Since warm air is lighter and less dense than cold air, it rises and begins to cool. The moisture that evaporates into the air condenses and forms clouds, and snow begins falling. 

153. vis0
Now i know why the autobot is not working properly (not highlighting alerts - i had highlighted the last 2 of Dr. Masters) someone probably connected it to the Petbot

As to weather could we (NEast USofA)  have a major ice storm mixing with snow...colder air lingering a bit longer?
Quoting 145. sar2401:

And another thing. Why do I have to do at least one refresh every time I post to see if my post actually showed up? I didn't have this problem before the last middle of the day "upgrade".


That issue has been going on all week. Why WU can't incorporate real time updating of comments is beyond me. Virutally every other website that includes a comments section has this.
157. vis0

Quoting 154. tampabaymatt:



That issue has been going on all week. Why WU can't incorporate real time updating of comments is beyond me. Virutally every other website that includes a comments section has this.
i really think some new help is really trying to backtrack to find all the little errors that built up over the years so they are in secluded mode where "they" just work on the coding and any requests have to wait
For the general scientists in this community, they just spotted universal gravity waves for the first time; amazing to me that Albert Einstein got this one right too 100 years ago..................................The dude was incredible.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/gravitatio nal-waves-einstein-s-ripples-spacetime-spotted-fir st-time


Long ago, deep in space, two massive black holes—the ultrastrong gravitational fields left behind by gigantic stars that collapsed to infinitesimal points—slowly drew together. The stellar ghosts spiraled ever closer, until, about 1.3 billion years ago, they whirled about each other at half the speed of light and finally merged. The collision sent a shudder through the universe: ripples in the fabric of space and time called gravitational waves. Five months ago, they washed past Earth. And, for the first time, physicists detected the waves, fulfilling a 4-decade quest and opening new eyes on the heavens.

The discovery marks a triumph for the 1000 physicists with the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), a pair of gigantic instruments in Hanford, Washington, and Livingston, Louisiana. 

Albert Einstein predicted the existence of gravitational waves 100 years ago, but directly detecting them required mind-boggling technological prowess and a history of hunting. 

The GFS has really shifted the track of the storm further west this last run (06Z). Almost a 200 mile jump to the north and west on the rain/snow line for the east coast.

Still looking at maybe 2 inches of snow here in IL. Snow has been frequent this winter but only in 1" doses for the most part. I had 3" in Nov. 1" in Dec, and 3 and half " in Jan. Also racked up an 1" for Feb. Typically average 20-25 inches per winter here.

GFS @ 102 hours. Still very much a long ways out and only watching for trends. Which seem to be further and further to the NW and also warmer for the coast.


They issued the press release yesterday Feb 11, 2016):

This morning, the National Science Foundation and the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) teamed up for a celebration at the National Press Club in Washington D.C. Amid a large media contingent, and with tens of thousands watching via the Internet, they announced the first detection of gravitational waves. (This is the first person to see those gravitational waves.) Here are some of the voices from the momentous event.

Radar showing mix, I don't see jack. Currently at 35.

Quoting 160. weathermanwannabe:

They issued the press release yesterday Feb 11, 2016):

This morning, the National Science Foundation and the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) teamed up for a celebration at the National Press Club in Washington D.C. Amid a large media contingent, and with tens of thousands watching via the Internet, they announced the first detection of gravitational waves. (This is the first person to see those gravitational waves.) Here are some of the voices from the momentous event.




It's a huge win for general relativity
Quoting 161. win1gamegiantsplease:

Radar showing mix, I don't see jack. Currently at 35.



It's a huge win for general relativity


Many of us read Einsteins Theory of General Relativity and amazing to think that his theories are still being confirmed years later as we catch up with him (with the first one being confirmed in the 1940's I think when they confirmed gravity bending the light of stars shining towards the Earth near the edge of the Sun during a solar eclipse experiment...............The light from star bent around the Sun towards Earth (making the star visible to us) before the star actually made it over the Sun horizon)
The tritium leak at a nuclear plant in Upstate New York that was discovered last week looks to be getting worse.

In good news the Porter Ranch Gas leak in California that drove 10s of thousands from their homes looks to be capped after 4 months of spewing Methane.
Interesting screenshots are now emerging from The Anthem of the Seas and the winds they experienced, including an apparent gust to 148 knots. I am very interested in the type of anemometer the ship carries now and how accurate it is.

There were multiple reports they experienced gusts to 150mph and the captain claimed as high as 180mph. I do not believe he was lying or embellishing. If their instruments were accurate, this truly was a storm for the record books, and indeed unexpected (I don't think any model captured that).

I hope these data get submitted to a 3rd party for analysis and verification.
Sunday morning is going to be a little chilly across the eastern half of North America. Then things start to warm up next week.
If wunderground would be so kind as to reset my Patrap account log-in info back to the default settings, I'd much appreciate it.

Blogging as a swamp rat is freeing, but alas, not quite my style,

Thanx.
Quoting 164. terstorm:

Interesting screenshots are now emerging from The Anthem of the Seas and the winds they experienced, including an apparent gust to 148 knots. I am very interested in the type of anemometer the ship carries now and how accurate it is.

There were multiple reports they experienced gusts to 150mph and the captain claimed as high as 180mph. I do not believe he was lying or embellishing. If their instruments were accurate, this truly was a storm for the record books, and indeed unexpected (I don't think any model captured that).

I hope these data get submitted to a 3rd party for analysis and verification.

I have started using a "solid state" anemometer made by Omni Instruments on my sailboat. It has no moving parts and it's extremely sturdy. My particular model only registers up to 116kts, and is accurate to within 2%, but I'm sure commercial versions register much higher. My guess would be they carry solid state wind instruments.
Yesterday I was unable to post comments in the blog (kept asking for verification email, but wouldn't send me an email). But when I completely logged out of Wunderground and then logged back in using my username and password the bog worked for me.
Quoting 158. weathermanwannabe:

For the general scientists in this community, they just spotted universal gravity waves for the first time; amazing to me that Albert Einstein got this one right too 100 years ago..................................The dude was incredible.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/gravitatio nal-waves-einstein-s-ripples-spacetime-spotted-fir st-time


Long ago, deep in space, two massive black holes—the ultrastrong gravitational fields left behind by gigantic stars that collapsed to infinitesimal points—slowly drew together. The stellar ghosts spiraled ever closer, until, about 1.3 billion years ago, they whirled about each other at half the speed of light and finally merged. The collision sent a shudder through the universe: ripples in the fabric of space and time called gravitational waves. Five months ago, they washed past Earth. And, for the first time, physicists detected the waves, fulfilling a 4-decade quest and opening new eyes on the heavens.

The discovery marks a triumph for the 1000 physicists with the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), a pair of gigantic instruments in Hanford, Washington, and Livingston, Louisiana. 

Albert Einstein predicted the existence of gravitational waves 100 years ago, but directly detecting them required mind-boggling technological prowess and a history of hunting. 




He's often noted for what he got right, but he also got a lot wrong. You just don't hear about that as much. :)

For example, he didn't like the "spooky action" of quantum mechanics and spent a fair amount of his time later on trying to resolve the inconsistencies between relativity and the quantum world. Since then, many others have tried as well. No one has yet to succeed.

This experiment would have been just as eye opening if it failed. But it succeeded, placing another pillar firmly under relativity. That's great, but we're still stuck with two as yet incompatible systems (quantum and relativity). The person (or persons) who finally manage a grand unified theory would easily win the Nobel Prize and would likely usher in a new age for humanity. I mean, we'd never use such a theory to develop advanced weapons of mass destruction like gravimetric or anti-matter missiles and bombs.....right?
Looks like there is a good chance of snow squalls in the DC metro area tonight, starting around the back half of "rush hour". Will be interesting to see how people react.
Quoting 167. Greg01:


I have started using a "solid state" anemometer made by Omni Instruments on my sailboat. It has no moving parts and it's extremely sturdy. My particular model only registers up to 116kts, and is accurate to within 2%, but I'm sure commercial versions register much higher. My guess would be they carry solid state wind instruments.
Is that available in a turbo version?
Climate Change has come home here to roost.

A sad day indeed.



A Louisiana Tribe Is Now Officially A Community Of Climate Refugees
Since the 1950s, the Native American tribe has lost 98 percent of the land it calls home.


Deep in the bayous of Louisiana, about 80 miles southwest of New Orleans, lies the Isle de Jean Charles, a tiny swath of land that's all but vanished into the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the last half-century or so, the island has fallen victim to irresponsible oil and gas extraction practices and the effects of climate change. Many of its residents -- members of the Isle de Jean Charles Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Native Americans -- have been forced to flee.

"What you see of the island now is just a skeleton of what it used to be," Chris Brunet, a tribal council member and lifelong island resident, told The New York Times in a mini-documentary called Vanishing Island in 2014.

A recent federal grant, however, will allow the state-recognized tribe to resettle on higher ground, making it the first community of official climate refugees in the United States, according to Indian Country Today.

Late last month, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) awarded $1 billion for resilient infrastructure and housing projects as part of its National Disaster Resilience Competition. On the list is $52 million for the Isle de Jean Charles tribe to relocate to a "resilient and historically-contextual community," HUD wrote.

Since the 1950s, the tribe has lost 98 percent of its land to rising sea levels, coastal erosion and flooding. Experts suspect the island will be completely submerged within 50 years, Houma Today reports.

Albert Naquin, chief of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Indians, has been fighting to secure funding for 13 years and said the money will allow the tribe to reestablish community, something that -- like their historic island home -- is being washed away.

“I’m very, very excited," Naquin told Indian Country Today. "Now we’re getting a chance to reunite the family. ... They’re excited as well. Our culture is going to stay intact, [but] we’ve got to get the interest back in our youth."
For 170 years, the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw have occupied this remote island, surviving off the land as fishermen, oystermen and trappers.

What was once a 22,000-acre island, however, has been reduced to a 320-acre strip. As of 2009, only 25 houses remained occupied, down from 63 only five years prior, according to a report by Northern Arizona University.

Pat Forbes, the executive director of the Louisiana Office of Community Development, said in a release that the tribe's people are on the front line of Louisiana's coastal land loss disaster.

“This $48 million grant," she said, "will allow the state to help them resettle their entire community to a safer place with a minimum of disruption to livelihoods and lifestyles. Together, we’ll be creating a model for resettlement of endangered coastal communities throughout the United States."
The tribe will reportedly retain ownership of the island even after it relocates to its new community, which could happen as early as 2019.

Representatives of the Isle de Jean Charles Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe could not be reached for comment Thursday.

While the Louisiana tribal members are reportedly the first official U.S. climate refugees, they are not alone in their struggles.

In Alaska, for example, climate change already affects more than 180 villages. Among the hardest hit is the Yupik community of Newtok, a village that the Army Corps of Engineers predicts could be completely underwater by 2017. The Yupik people have also been called America's first climate refugees.

Watch the trailer for a new 32-minute documentary about the Native American community of Isle de Jean Charles, called "Can't Stop The Water," which was released on Monday.
Quoting 170. 1Zach1:

Looks like there is a good chance of snow squalls in the DC metro area tonight, starting around the back half of "rush hour". Will be interesting to see how people react.
Prepare to hear about car abandonment and crashes.The Mon-Tues waste storm was the last chance to have any significant snow.Seems we'll have to wait until next winter but since we'll likely be in La nina I would count my stars.
Quoting 163. Skyepony:

The tritium leak at a nuclear plant in Upstate New York that was discovered last week looks to be getting worse.

In good news the Porter Ranch Gas leak in California that drove 10s of thousands from their homes looks to be capped after 4 months of spewing Methane.


Tritium is cool stuff. You can get various colored keychain lights relatively cheap made of tritium, and they stay remain nice and bright for years (half-life of 12 years). You can also get tritium signs and other "self-lighting" goodies. There's a pretty constant amount that occurs naturally in the environment due to nitrogen and carbon collisions with cosmic rays.

On the biological side of things, it's one of the safer radioactive materials. It's a low energy beta emmiter so it's radiation just bounces off the skin. It also has a short biological lifetime (7-14 days), so unless you're constantly being exposed to high levels of tritium (not the case here) your chances of any long term effects is non-existent. You're orders of magnitude more likely to get skin cancer from UV exposure.

The leak in the article is a far cry from "high levels" of anything, so it's not a threat. Actually, given how difficult it is to even detect tritium radiation (due to it's weak decay) I'm surprised they found such a small leak. They must have brought in a scintillator.
Quoting 163. Skyepony:

The tritium leak at a nuclear plant in Upstate New York that was discovered last week looks to be getting worse.

In good news the Porter Ranch Gas leak in California that drove 10s of thousands from their homes looks to be capped after 4 months of spewing Methane.


We poison our planet with catastrophic amounts of radiation and then worry about hair spray cans. The lies continue until we are no more.
Quoting 174. Xyrus2000:




I'm surprised they found such a small leak. They must have brought in a scintillator.
I have a solid state scintillator. It's from Omni instruments.
Issue by The National Weather Service
Binghamton, NY 3:53am EST, Fri Feb 12

... WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS... NORTHEAST PENNSYVLANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK.
* HAZARD TYPES... DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
* TIMING... COLDEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS... POTENTIAL FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. THE EXTREME COLD MAY ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FROZEN PIPES.

* WIND CHILL READINGS... AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO SATURDAY AND AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS... NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES... FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
Quoting 173. washingtonian115:

Prepare to hear about car abandonment and crashes.The Mon-Tues waste storm was the last chance to have any significant snow.Seems we'll have to wait until next winter but since we'll likely be in La nina I would count my stars.


"Next winter?" It is only Feb 12th, still a long way to go this winter.
172. nutria
10:02 AM EST on February 12, 2016

That will be the salient issue in the coming decades as we see climate refuges around the world trying to settle-move to more favorable areas (like they did eons ago) but trying to get permission this time to cross state and national borders and countries.  Point being that this ancient tribe, and their ancestors, did not need permission or a land grant to move to higher, or lower ground, before the Europeans arrived...........They just packed up and went............................... 
Quoting 179. Bucsboltsfan:



"Next winter?" It is only Feb 12th, still a long way to go this winter.
They show a warm pattern developing after Monday.Remember what may be punishing cold in February is not the same in MId-March.While it can snow in March it is no guarantee and our chances go down significantly (for D.C anyway)
Sleet mixed in for a very small moment, what a winter.

Quoting 162. weathermanwannabe:



Many of us read Einsteins Theory of General Relativity and amazing to think that his theories are still being confirmed years later as we catch up with him (with the first one being confirmed in the 1940's I think when they confirmed gravity bending the light of stars shining towards the Earth near the edge of the Sun during a solar eclipse experiment...............The light from star bent around the Sun towards Earth (making the star visible to us) before the star actually made it over the Sun horizon)


A lot of it if I'm not mistaken was built off of Max Planck's work; Planck developed blackbody distribution and energy of quanta concepts but ultimately believed he had just used math to make things work systematically instead of it actually being true.
In Finland and Europe in general (I think from what I have followed) wind chills are not a big deal. It's always hard to determine those feels like values and sometimes when they say it should feel like -20 when its 0F it actually feels 0F. Also buying a windproof jacket helps a lot just like a scarf and a hood help with protecting your face. I don't know but to me it feels like the US weather services just want more dramatic forecasts since often times they only refer to the wind chills though the actual temperatures are much milder.
Here is some of the science on sea level rise from NOAA: 

"There is strong evidence that global sea level is now rising at an increased rate and will continue to rise during this century.

While studies show that sea levels changed little from AD 0 until 1900, sea levels began to climb in the 20th century.

The two major causes of global sea-level rise are thermal expansion caused by the warming of the oceans (since water expands as it warms) and the loss of land-based ice (such as glaciers) due to increased melting.
Records and research show that sea level has been steadily rising at a rate of 0.04 to 0.1 inches per year since 1900.

This rate may be increasing. Since 1992, new methods of satellite altimetry (the measurement of elevation or altitude) indicate a rate of rise of 0.12 inches per year.

The NAM 12z put down quite a bit of QPF before we transition to freezing rain early next week. 6-7 inches in and around the DC area.

Today could be very tricky as the hi res models show snow showers impacting the region around rush hour time.
(Patrap) Sea Level Rise Viewer

Select a geography and use the slider bar to simulate various sea level rise scenarios (from one to six feet above the average highest tides) and the corresponding areas that would be impacted by flooding. Click the camera icons for pictures that depict how local landmarks could be affected. Additional tabs provide information about marsh impacts, nuisance flood frequency, and social and economic data.

Maps are not currently available for Alaska due to the accuracy of existing elevation data and gaps in vertical datum transformation.

Features

Models potential marsh migration due to sea level rise
Examines how tidal flooding will become more frequent with sea level rise
Enables access through mobile devices
Produces shortened URLs for easy map sharing through email and social media
Provides access to Web map services and underlying geospatial data
Offers supporting documents and information on sea level rise mapping
Quoting 183. Arcticstuff:

In Finland and Europe in general (I think from what I have followed) wind chills are not a big deal. It's always hard to determine those feels like values and sometimes when they say it should feel like -20 when its 0F it actually feels 0F. Also buying a windproof jacket helps a lot just like a scarf and a hood help with protecting your face. I don't know but to me it feels like the US weather services just want more dramatic forecasts since often times they only refer to the wind chills though the actual temperatures are much milder.

Weather guys, here at least, tend to be a little schitzty: They love high drama when it comes to events meteorlogical; but they adamantly wish to not be perceived as drama-queens. Sort of a loveable puppy-trait really. Let's wish them a whole stack of hurricanes colliding with polar vortexes and maybe salt the mess with coronal mass ejection! ....with lots of snacks, of course.

;-D
Quoting 176. Llamaluvr:

I have a solid state scintillator. It's from Omni instruments.
Mine's a 200# scintillator from Oklahoma.
Quoting 177. Grothar:

Issue by The National Weather Service
Binghamton, NY 3:53am EST, Fri Feb 12

... WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS... NORTHEAST PENNSYVLANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK.
* HAZARD TYPES... DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
* TIMING... COLDEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS... POTENTIAL FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. THE EXTREME COLD MAY ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FROZEN PIPES.

* WIND CHILL READINGS... AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO SATURDAY AND AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS... NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES... FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.


will be brutal cold up here after midnight with chills of -36 to -38 across southern Ontario air temps -23 to -25 c



12z GFS came in weaker and farther with next week's storm showing 4-6 inches for the metro area before the flip to rain. Hopefully this trend continues. Want to delay the negative tilt as much as possible. The GFS 6z run was trash.
Yikes! If the cold air holds on a bit longer, this could end up being a nightmare.

Quoting 192. Drakoen:

12z GFS came in weaker and farther with next week's storm showing 4-6 inches for the metro area before the flip to rain. Hopefully this trend continues. Want to delay the negative tilt as much as possible. The GFS 6z run was trash.


This storm will be more of a nightmare than the blizzard, especially with power outages. Wet snow, freezing rain, rain, and high winds. Perfect storm for power outages. People are going to be misled by the snow totals with this one. This will be a high impact storm
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
midnight EST tonight...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow showers... which is in
effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST tonight.

* Precipitation type... snow showers.

* Accumulations... a coating to an inch.

* Timing... snow showers are most likely between 6 PM and 8 PM
across north-central Maryland into the northern and western
suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Snow showers are most
likely between 8 and 11 PM inside the beltways of Washington DC
and Baltimore and along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor
from the Susquehanna River in northeast Maryland to
Fredericksburg Virginia.

* Impacts... below freezing temperatures will allow for snow that
falls to stick on untreated surfaces. This means untreated roads
will become snow covered and icy this evening... making travel
difficult. Additionally... untreated sidewalks... parking lots... and
walkways will become hazardous for pedestrians.
-------------
I wonder if people will complain that they didn't have enough warning from Mets.

Columbia.edu
This is one of the latest reliable estimates available. One study that's just out shows that since 4-5 years, the rate would be close to 5.5mm/year now... You can see the new steeper short-term trend after the dip in global sea level rise related to La Nina in 2010-2011, in the graph above. But only time will tell, in retrospect, what the actual trend was.
WPC will update this but here is the short-term looking towards the weekend; looking potentially brutal for many people over the weekend:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 12 2016 - 12Z Sun Feb 14 2016

...Lake effect snowfall to continue downwind of the Great Lakes Friday
into Saturday...

...The coldest air mass of the season expected to impact Eastern U.S. this
weekend...

...Rain and snow expected to spread across the Northwest on Friday and
into the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest by Saturday...


A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes will continue to allow for
moderate to locally heavy lake effect snowfall the next few days. An
additional 6 to 10 inches of snow may be possible in the favorable
downwind areas of the Great Lakes as westerly and northwesterly flow
across the lakes results in very localized heavy snow bands. Winter
weather advisories and Lake Effect snow warnings are in effect into
Saturday.

At the same time, a weak area of low pressure will move off the South
Carolina coast this morning which is expected to bring some light snow or
freezing rain accumulations to portions of eastern North Carolina on
Friday. The low is forecast to move well off the Eastern U.S. coastline,
but may still clip coastal Maine with up to a foot of snow.


Strong surface high pressure nudging into the Central U.S. today will
allow for temperatures 10 to 20 degrees colder than normal to continue
across the Northern Plains and into the Midwest. The cold front sweeping
into the Great Lakes however, will usher an even colder airmass into the
Eastern U.S. by Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures as much as 20 to 30
degrees below normal are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast this weekend. A strong pressure gradient
in the wake of the low off the Northeast coast will also bring gusty winds
to these same areas which could create dangerously cold overnight wind
chills.


A frontal boundary moving into the Northwest today will bring locally
heavy rain and higher elevation snows to the Pacific Northwest and
portions of the Intermountain West throughout the weekend. As the upper
level energy moves into the High Plains Saturday afternoon, snow will
spread into the Northern Plains, and eventually the Upper Midwest by
Sunday. Relatively light accumulations of up to half a foot could be
possible across the eastern Dakotas into portions of western Minnesota.
And are the low temps (forget about the highs for now) currently forecast for Saturday and Sunday:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
The river Thames in London has burst its banks. Here's the link and headline:-

"Flood alerts have been issued for a large part of London and the Thames Barrier has been closed for the first time this winter after the river burst its banks."

Link
12Z GFS has the LOW back on the coast now..maybe sunday evening we'll know better.........
Zack You know it!
New York, New York (Manhattan)

Wind Chill Advisory


Statement as of 4:04 AM EST on February 12, 2016

Expires 12:00 PM EST on February 14, 2016



... Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 4 PM Saturday to noon EST
Sunday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Chill
Advisory... which is in effect from 4 PM Saturday to noon EST
Sunday.

* Locations... Metro New York City and New Jersey and Long Island.

* Hazard types... potentially dangerous windchills.

* Timing... coldest wind chills late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning.

* Wind chill... as low as 20 to 25 below due to temperatures of 5
above to 5 degrees below zero... and northwest winds 20 to 30
mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Impacts... the frigid conditions will be dangerous to those
venturing outside. Prolonged exposure may cause frostbite.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.


"Let them eat salt." Holland Island.
217. 882MB
Try the ignore feature, It works wunders for many.




Quoting 175. frank727:



We poison our planet with catastrophic amounts of radiation and then worry about hair spray cans. The lies continue until we are no more.


Erm...no we don't. The planet is plenty radioactive on it's own. Life has adapted over billions of years to be tolerant of radiation (redundant DNA, self-repair, etc.), with some life forms all but immune short of sitting in front of a nuclear blast or staring at a meltdown.

In fact, you yourself are radioactive (carbon, potassium, calcium, etc.). The fire detector in your house is radioactive. Your granite countertops are radioactive. Bananas are radioactive. The dirt outside? Radioactive. The air itself? Even without human activities it would be radioactive (cosmic ray bombardment, natural seeps, etc.). There are a number of places on Earth where people live quite normally in spite of having significantly higher levels of natural radioactivity.

Radiation isn't some magical kill-all substance.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1252 PM EST Friday Feb 12 2016

Synopsis...
mainly dry and cold weather is expected this afternoon, with some
light snow showers possible by this evening. Brief, heavier snow
squalls are possible tonight especially across New York state. The
coldest air of the season will arrive late tonight into Sunday
with bitterly cold air and wind chills. The entire area will be
below zero by Saturday night and Sunday morning.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...

1000 am update...

we made some minor adjustments to temperatures, clouds and winds
for this afternoon. Previous forecast looks on track as most of
the action will be happening after 00z this evening. We will
reevaluate potential for evening snow squalls and refine timing,
potentially lower temperatures than currently forecast a few
degrees and also potentially up wind gusts when all 12z guidance
is in. Not planning on a Wind Advisory just yet. 12z NAM has
pressure rises of around 10 mb/6 hours in NE PA which is below
what we usually expect for wind gusts over 40 knots (15 mb/6
hours). 12z met guidance only has a 13 knot wind maximum for
Saturday at kavp. Metmpo has up to 17 knots Saturday. We usually
see advisory level winds when our guidance is in the low to middle
20s knots as a rule of thumb. In addition, very cold air masses
likely this one need a stronger pressure gradient for high winds
due to the higher density of the cold air. However, downslope
areas in eastern PA could see some sort of kadabatic wind set-up
as the very cold, dense air flows down from the Poconos leading to
stronger winds than guidance suggests. This commonly occurs in PA
and eastern New York. But our counties in northeast PA are mostly
upslope.
Quoting 220. Xyrus2000:



Erm...no we don't. The planet is plenty radioactive on it's own. Life has adapted over billions of years to be tolerant of radiation (redundant DNA, self-repair, etc.), with some life forms all but immune short of sitting in front of a nuclear blast or staring at a meltdown.

In fact, you yourself are radioactive (carbon, potassium, calcium, etc.). The fire detector in your house is radioactive. Your granite countertops are radioactive. Bananas are radioactive. The dirt outside? Radioactive. The air itself? Even without human activities it would be radioactive (cosmic ray bombardment, natural seeps, etc.). There are a number of places on Earth where people live quite normally in spite of having significantly higher levels of natural radioactivity.

Radiation isn't some magical kill-all substance.


Actually, the EPA, after reviewing test data submitted by manufacturers, issued a statement saying there isn't enough evidence to suggest granite countertops are a source of radon.

Now ain't that funny...
Granite and Radon
Recent media attention has focused on granite countertops and whether they can increase your indoor radon levels. While testing your home is always a good idea, a few clarifications are in order.


However, the key word is "measurable". As an illustration, compare the radon produced by your naturally-occurring stone surfaces, such as granite, to the heat produced by a birthday candle. Although you wouldn't be able to heat your entire kitchen using a birthday candle you can easily feel the heat if you put your hand over it. This is similar to placing a geiger counter over a tiny speck of uranium, thorium, radium, or potassium. The detector will make thousands of clicks per minute but be of little concern. If your stone surface emits a small amount of radon, as happens in most cases, it will generally be insignificant when diluted with the quantity of air in your entire home.
Quoting 174. Xyrus2000:



Tritium is cool stuff. You can get various colored keychain lights relatively cheap made of tritium, and they stay remain nice and bright for years (half-life of 12 years). You can also get tritium signs and other "self-lighting" goodies. There's a pretty constant amount that occurs naturally in the environment due to nitrogen and carbon collisions with cosmic rays.

On the biological side of things, it's one of the safer radioactive materials. It's a low energy beta emmiter so it's radiation just bounces off the skin. It also has a short biological lifetime (7-14 days), so unless you're constantly being exposed to high levels of tritium (not the case here) your chances of any long term effects is non-existent. You're orders of magnitude more likely to get skin cancer from UV exposure.

The leak in the article is a far cry from "high levels" of anything, so it's not a threat. Actually, given how difficult it is to even detect tritium radiation (due to it's weak decay) I'm surprised they found such a small leak. They must have brought in a scintillator.
But tritium sounds so...well...Star Treky kind of dangerous and all, even though, as you say, tritium is way less dangerous to humans that getting a sunburn. Even though the amount reported in a single monitoring well is 1/10 of 1% of what would even trigger mandatory reporting to the NRC about the leak. But everyone knows that power plant is one dangerous place, and it should be shut down immediately. Once, just once, I'd like to see these arm flapping sites report on the amount of radioactive materials put into the air from just one coal fired power plant, like the ones a couple miles from half the US population.
Quoting 226. Xyrus2000:



Well ok then.

Thunderstorms are caused by god being angry and tornadoes are the horns of the devil.

What would your response to that be? Would your response be "Oh, that's a strong well supported, plausible, alternate theory," or would it be more like "What the hell are you talking about? There's well established science for the formation of these phenomena that have nothing to do with any mythical beings."

Pushing non-science/psuedo-science as legitimate science is DETRIMENTAL to all science. It leads to a misinformed and ill-educated populace. It leads to ideology trumping logic, a faith trumping facts. The anti-science/anti-intelligence movement isn't about just one subject of science. It's looking to undermine ALL science and education.

Sure, maybe it starts with creationism. Then it moves on to something like global warming. Soon you'll have people saying that hurricanes are caused from an angel flushing his/her heavenly toilet. Why do the angels hate you so much? You must be a bad person. You got what you deserved!


None of that changes my original point. The topics that article was addressing have no place here. This is not a blog to debate creationism. It is a weather blog. With that said, I'll sign off for the day. It's easy to tell when this blog is about to take a turn for the worse.
Quoting 222. tampabaymatt:



Actually, the EPA, after reviewing test data submitted by manufacturers, issued a statement saying there isn't enough evidence to suggest granite countertops are a source of radon.



They are most definitely a source, just not enough to be any concern. Granite contains small amounts of uranium, thorium, and radium so inevitably it does produce radon.

If you have granite countertops, grab a Geiger counter and give it few passes over it. It gets a little "clicky". I remember doing this back in high school (chemistry). The teacher also had a chunk of uranium ore, the americium core from a fire detector, a banana, and a small container of salt substitute. We also measured ourselves to get the average radioactivity of the class. I don't remember what the average was though.
Quoting 222. tampabaymatt:



Actually, the EPA, after reviewing test data submitted by manufacturers, issued a statement saying there isn't enough evidence to suggest granite countertops are a source of radon.

And we all know that manufacturers are always unbiased.. I imagine the data was presented in the memo section... at the bottom of a check.. :/
Quoting 229. Xyrus2000:



They are most definitely a source, just not enough to be any concern. Granite contains small amounts of uranium, thorium, and radium so inevitably it does produce radon.

If you have granite countertops, grab a Geiger counter and give it few passes over it. It gets a little "clicky". I remember doing this back in high school (chemistry). The teacher also had a chunk of uranium ore, the americium core from a fire detector, a banana, and a small container of salt substitute. We also measured ourselves to get the average radioactivity of the class. I don't remember what the average was though.


We did that in class too. brazil nuts are quite radioactive we discovered (but not even close enough to cause any harm). It was a fun experiment--I like that kind of hands-on science.
Quoting 228. tampabaymatt:



None of that changes my original point. The topics that article was addressing have no place here. This is not a blog to debate creationism. It is a weather blog. With that said, I'll sign off for the day. It's easy to tell when this blog is about to take a turn for the worse.
I just flagged that post, and I hope you did also. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but this isn't always the place to post about every single opinion we have. Regardless, don't let another post turn you thinking that somehow things are taking a turn for the worse.
Quoting 231. JNFlori30A:

And we all know that manufacturers are always unbiased.. I imagine the data was presented in the memo section... at the bottom of a check.. :/


Wish I could + that at least twice.. too funny....
Quoting 232. luvtogolf:



You are totally correct. I has no place here but once again it show the bias from the mods and the blog because that post is still here when it should have been removed.
Did you flag it? If enough people who didn't think the post was appropriate flag a post, it will supposedly disappear automatically. Just do it if you haven't done so and we'll see what happens.
Extreme Cold Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A period of very cold wind chills is expected.

A cold front will pass through the regions tonight. Very cold temperatures will follow in its wake, along with gusty northwest winds.

Very cold wind chill values between about minus 30 and minus 35 are expected overnight and Saturday morning. Wind chill conditions will improve only marginally on Saturday afternoon, then fall below minus 30 again on Saturday night in most locales. Some improvement is expected on Sunday.

While anyone who isn't dressed warmly is at risk in cold weather conditions, some are at greater risk than others for frost bite and hypothermia:
- homeless people
- outdoor workers
- people living in homes that are poorly insulated (with no heat or no power)
- people with certain medical conditions such as diabetes, peripheral neuropathy and diseases affecting the blood vessels, people taking certain medications including beta-blockers
- winter sport enthusiasts
- people who consume excess alcohol
- infants and
- seniors.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 229. Xyrus2000:



They are most definitely a source, just not enough to be any concern. Granite contains small amounts of uranium, thorium, and radium so inevitably it does produce radon.

If you have granite countertops, grab a Geiger counter and give it few passes over it. It gets a little "clicky". I remember doing this back in high school (chemistry). The teacher also had a chunk of uranium ore, the americium core from a fire detector, a banana, and a small container of salt substitute. We also measured ourselves to get the average radioactivity of the class. I don't remember what the average was though.
We had one of those giant, old-timey, Civil Defense geiger counters that still ran on vacuum tubes. We tested half the stuff in school to see what set it off. You should have seen a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. Made it go kind of nuts. I later find out that almost any groundnut had some detectable form of radiation from both the naturally occurring stuff and what US and Soviet air testing of nuclear weapons was putting in the soil back then. It's a wonder I even made it long enough to leach off Social Security. :-)
247. MrHul
Quoting 245. luvtogolf:



So then you are saying is no scientist goes to church on a Sunday morning? If they do then they are a hypocrite.

No, I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that what you or I believe has no value in a science classroom. Theories are based on scientific evidence, and beliefs usually aren't.
well lets get back too weather
Quoting 236. nutria:

but this isn't always the place to post about every single opinion we have.


IRONY WINS AGAIN.

Your caps lock key is stuck.

And you apparently don't understand the meaning of irony.
Quoting 245. luvtogolf:



So then you are saying is no scientist goes to church on a Sunday morning? If they do then they are a hypocrite.


There is a difference between being religious and seeing the Bible as literal as opposed to allegorical. About 30% of Christian religious Americans see the Bible as literal according to the latest GSS.
Quoting 235. PedleyCA:



Wish I could + that at least twice.. too funny....
Although it's not as bad as those five times normal speed babble things we have to listen to at the end of every political ad now. Geeezzz....
Quoting 248. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well lets get back too weather



what weather lol
Levi Cowan@TropicalTidbits 55 minhace 55 minutos
Oops.
So apparently the Euro is a party killer. Oh well.
Ice core data has shown "The Rise and Fall of Earth's Climate Change" going back 500,000 years...

Click image for source material

A presentation specific to the east coast may be interesting to some readers...

Click image for source material.

Note: Sea level on these graph above are is scaled in meters. The graph at comment 197, beginning in 1880 or so, scales sea rise in mm. (1.0 mm =0.001 meter.)

ReaderQuiz:
T or F
1. The graphs above depict a "creationist" viewpoint.

T or F
2. Barefootontherocks gave up ironing years ago.

Short essay question
3. Are humans lucky sea rise is becoming a problem as compared to the potential threat of frozen death should the human race survive another, say, 50,000 years?
Quoting 254. Tazmanian:




what weather lol



Still saying 7 more days of 80's...normal is 67/44
Quoting 258. nutria:

ooh rah'


I would not of thought a TRUE MARINE would go back and delete and change whole posts. I mean stand by your convictions if your a real man or women.

Anyway still waiting for the science behind your assumption

The weather here today will not get above zero air temp but at least it is sunny
Quoting 260. Barefootontherocks:

Ice core data has shown "The Rise and Fall of Earth's Climate Change" going back 500,000 years...

Click image for source material

A presentation specific to the east coast may be interesting to some readers...

Click image for source material.

Note: Sea level on these graph above are is scaled in meters. The graph at comment 197, beginning in 1880 or so, scales sea rise in mm. (1.0 mm =0.001 meter.)

ReaderQuiz:
T or F
1. The graphs above depict a "creationist" viewpoint.

T or F
2. Barefootontherocks gave up ironing years ago.

Short essay question
3. Are humans lucky sea rise is becoming a problem as compared to the potential threat of frozen death should the human race survive another, say, 50,000 years?


This was my favorite part. Funny how you left it out.

"Concluding Remarks

Today the rate of sea-level rise is increasing
due to climate change
Globally, a rise between 0.6-4.3 feet is
predicted by 2100
Actual sea-level rise may exceed or be lower
than these predictions due to local conditions
(e.g., subsidence, post-glacial rebound or
tectonic activity)"

And to answer your questions...

1. What?
2 Whatever.
Short Answer: The options you pose show a sincere lack of understanding of climate change if you believe the choice is between a glacial and some rising waters. Hope you don't get flooded out of Oklahoma this year.
Quoting 183. Arcticstuff:

In Finland and Europe in general (I think from what I have followed) wind chills are not a big deal. It's always hard to determine those feels like values and sometimes when they say it should feel like -20 when its 0F it actually feels 0F. Also buying a windproof jacket helps a lot just like a scarf and a hood help with protecting your face. I don't know but to me it feels like the US weather services just want more dramatic forecasts since often times they only refer to the wind chills though the actual temperatures are much milder.
Wind chill is a directly measurable value, so the value in and of itself is not hype. Sometimes the way it gets used is hype, although far more frequently by the mass media than what I've ever seen coming from the NWS. If the wind chill is low enough, it's also a measure of actual danger to unprotected skin, so knowing the wind chill temperature when the air temperature is near zero is a good piece of information to have before closing the door.
Quoting 266. Naga5000:



This was my favorite part. Funny how you left it out.

"Concluding Remarks
%u2022
Today the rate of sea-level rise is increasing
due to climate change
%u2022
Globally, a rise between 0.6-4.3 feet is
predicted by 2100
%u2022 Actual sea-level rise may exceed or be lower
than these predictions due to local conditions
(e.g., subsidence, post-glacial rebound or
tectonic activity)"

And to answer your questions...

1. What?
2 Whatever.
Short Answer: The options you pose shows a sincere lack of understanding of climate change if you believe the choice is between a glacial and some rising waters. Hope you don't get flooded out of Oklahoma this year.
Naga, Probably you and I have, and always will have, different definitions of "climate change," and incompatible senses of humor. Got flooded out last year. Not a chance that'll repeat.
Thanks just the same though.

Ps. The bolded part of your comment (my bolding). I am not disputing that, nor did I try to hide it. Anyone who reads the two legitimate sources I linked will find a more complete discussion of climate change patterns and causes of sea level rise than the quote you pulled out indicates. Tit for tat man!
Quoting 270. Barefootontherocks:

Naga, Probably you and I have, and always will have different definitions of "climate change," and incompatible senses of humor. Got flooded out last year. Not a chance that'll repeat.
Thanks just the same though.


Certainly incompatible. As for the definition of climate change, it is certainly well defined in both the link you provided and the literature. If you are using it differently or incorrectly, that is your problem. Toodles.
Quoting 271. Naga5000:



Certainly incompatible. As for the definition of climate change, it is certainly well defined in both the link you provided and the literature. If you are using it differently or incorrectly, that is your problem. Toodles.
I am speaking, as does at least one of the links I provided, of ice core proof of Earth's "climate change" over hundreds of thousands of years. That is not incorrect, just broader than your definition which seems to be tied to the past 130 or so years. Don't miss my Ps at 270. Tata, Toto.
280. ariot
Short essay question
3. Are humans lucky sea rise is becoming a problem as compared to the potential threat of frozen death should the human race survive another, say, 50,000 years?


Luck is subjective.

Questions should generally compare two similar things in order to get responses worth reading. This one compares a well defined 100-200 year time frame (AGW) with one of a notional 1,000-50,000 year time frame (some future ice age).

Here's my answer:

I do not want my grandchildren become refugees at age 35 due to sea-level rise caused by AGW that my nation's public policy could help mitigate or prevent. If an unrecognizable and distant descendant of my family line has to become a refugee due to an impending ice age in the northern hemisphere, starting in the year 52,016 (or even 3016) I can only hope they have figured out how to shape a public policy that is rational and forward thinking enough to mitigate their migration.





Let's be friends it's a beautiful day outside!




Quoting 278. sar2401:

They have the best error messages though. The one I got for a while about 20 minutes ago, when I couldn't get in, was a "Code 500" and included the missive that I should write to support@wunderground.com, including whatever I did to cause the server error. Talk about blaming the victim. :-)


I was getting the same message around the same time.
283. vis0
weather, how many think the LOW in the NEast USofA is going to be a dangerous Ice storm that can cause wide poer (tripping) outages?

BTW as i scrolled i've notice even though i have not pulsed any comment on pg6 of Dr. Masters #3243, yet 2 or 3 comments have their " " icon dimmed/washed out and the drop down has me pluses it, huh?

weather do not forget to place your 2016 TS ATL predictions on Max's site.

Weather, is China going through another top smog day or maybe i qwas watching a repeat telecast from a Chinese TV station.


Weather,
i hear and read  a post by 999? that many tons of landfill waste is being moved by the floods.(EDIT- In UK)

Weather, Storm Imogen...
Quoting 282. tampabaymatt:



I was getting the same message around the same time.
Do you see a orange mail letter at the top?
Quoting 278. sar2401:

They have the best error messages though. The one I got for a while about 20 minutes ago, when I couldn't get in, was a "Code 500" and included the missive that I should write to support@wunderground.com, including whatever I did to cause the server error. Talk about blaming the victim. :-)



Did you see my comment yesterday about the T.V. commercial we discussed the other day?
if not, I can just post the information again.
let's talk about el nino...that always brings us together :-)


Off weather topic but interesting;

Seismologists and app developers are shaking things up with a new app that transforms smartphones into personal earthquake detectors.

MyShake' App Turns Your Smartphone into Earthquake Detector

By tapping into a smartphone's accelerometer — the motion-detection instrument — the free Android app, called MyShake, can pick up and interpret nearby quake activity, estimating the earthquake's location and magnitude in real-time, and then relaying the information to a central database for seismologists to analyze.

In time, an established network of users could enable MyShake to be used as an early- warning system, the researchers said.

Link

Link to the Berkeley site where the App was made, including cool XKCD explanation of the App
Gonna sign off for the day but WPC updated their forecast; nuff to say that it is going to be snowy, windy, and very cold across a large area of the US. Hoping for the best and primarily hoping that we do not get a substantial ice storm anywhere on the Eastern Seaboard that could really do a number on power issues. Have a safe weekend and stay warm (I am currently in the mid-70's in North Florida and running the air in the car).

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 13 2016 - 00Z Mon Feb 15 2016

...Lake effect snowfall to continue downwind of the Great Lakes into early
Saturday morning...

...The coldest air mass of the season expected to impact Eastern U.S. this
weekend...

...Rain and snow expected to spread into the Northern Plains and the Upper
Midwest by Saturday...

A cold front sweeping through the Great Lakes and the Northeast will
persist in producing moderate to locally heavy lake effect snowfall
downwind of the lakes, with light to moderate snow elsewhere. As westerly
and northwesterly flow crosses the lakes additional accumulations up to 1
foot may be possible in the favored lake effect areas. Winter Weather
Warnings and Advisories are in effect for western Michigan. Lake Effect
Snow Warnings are in effect for northern Michigan and western New York.
The heaviest bands of snow are expected to taper by early Saturday morning
near the lakes, however snow will spread to portions of the Northeast and
the northern/central Appalachians. Snow amounts for New England will
generally be light by the close of the weekend. Several Winter Weather
Advisories and a handful of Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across the
Mid-Atlantic and Appalachians.

Precipitation along the southern/central Appalachians may be a mix of
rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow by Monday. Ice accumulations up to
0.10 inch will be possible. In addition to the widespread precipitation,
arctic air will blast a vast portion of the eastern states, bringing some
of the coldest temperatures of the season so far. Afternoon high
temperatures as much as 20 to 30 degrees below normal are likely across
portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast this weekend.
The cold temperatures combined with gusty winds will make it feel much
colder. Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings span from the Upper Midwest to
Maine and south into portions of the Ohio Valley and Appalachians.

Simultaneously, a weak area of low pressure moving offshore of the
Carolinas is causing light snow across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. The low is forecast to track way offshore, but parallel to the
Eastern U.S. coastline and may clip coastal Maine with up to a foot of
snow.

Locally heavy rain and higher elevation snows are expected to continue
across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Intermountain West
throughout the weekend. Rainfall totals for coastal Washington and Oregon
could be 5+ inches by Monday. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet will be
possible for the Cascades, Sawtooths, Bitterroots, northern Rockies and
Big Horns. As the upper level energy moves into the High Plains Saturday
afternoon snow, and possibly freezing rain or ice, will spread into the
Northern Plains, and eventually the Upper Midwest by Sunday. Relatively
light accumulations of up to half a foot could be possible across the
eastern Dakotas into portions of western Minnesota.

White out conditions as the polar front moves through. I live on hwy#2 in between London and Chatham.

Here is a Link to the Exeter Ontario radar site.
18z NAM seems to be pushing more Snow and Ice than rain.
Quoting 291. 1Zach1:

18z NAM seems to be pushing more Snow and Ice than rain.


Yes, after the snow it transitions to a potentially significant freezing rain event, with possible backend snows after that. Hi-res models usually do a better job handling the CAD than the globals.
Quoting 286. ricderr:

let's talk about el nino...that always brings us together :-)





El-Nino - awww.
I heard on Rush Limbaugh show today..how he Blasted this sea level rise, saying the earth itself is in drought..land mass wise and its soaking up all the water it can, filling lakes and underground aquifers etc..and he says NO sea level rise worth anything is happening..im not going to get into what he called You folks claiming there IS...perhaps you all should go listen to his Today's talk show and see what I mean..i was amazed and yeah I guess shocked a little too.
Quoting 291. 1Zach1:

18z NAM seems to be pushing more Snow and Ice than rain.
Haha just sw you post that on CWG.
GFS and Euro both take the surface low up the spine of the mountains, while not impossible it seems a bit odd. With a strong high in the NE and a strong subtropical jet across the Gulf, I would favor a Miller B type system.
Quoting 296. washingtonian115:

Haha just sw you post that on CWG.

Yeah I have a hard time keeping up with them posting new articles every hour, but I generally am reading any watching the comments.

Quoting 295. LargoFl:

I heard on Rush Limbaugh show today..how he Blasted this sea level rise, saying the earth itself is in drought..land mass wise and its soaking up all the water it can, filling lakes and underground aquifers etc..and he says NO sea level rise worth anything is happening..im not going to get into what he called You folks claiming there IS...perhaps you all should go listen to his Today's talk show and see what I mean..i was amazed and yeah I guess shocked a little too.
You are brave my friend.
We had a nice "burst" of snow this morning in the Taylors and Greer area of SC from about 9 to 11am. Was heavier than forecasted. About a quick inch fell in those areas and a dusting as far south as I-85. Was pleasantly surprised.

Eric
Quoting 292. Drakoen:



Yes, after the snow it transitions to a potentially significant freezing rain event, with possible backend snows after that. Hi-res models usually do a better job handling the CAD than the globals.
With the Jan. storm hi-res broke the CAD about 6 hours too fast. It always seems to take longer than models and forecasters think.
Quoting 300. JNFlori30A:


You are brave my friend.

LOL I was amazed nad shocked with what he was saying,i had hoped DOC would listen to his talk ..don't know how to retrieve it..i guess it should be on the internet somewhere huh..oh well i'll let it rest..
Quoting 295. LargoFl:

I heard on Rush Limbaugh show today..how he Blasted this sea level rise, saying the earth itself is in drought..land mass wise and its soaking up all the water it can, filling lakes and underground aquifers etc..and he says NO sea level rise worth anything is happening..im not going to get into what he called You folks claiming there IS...perhaps you all should go listen to his Today's talk show and see what I mean..i was amazed and yeah I guess shocked a little too.
Did he happen to mention any scientific studies that supported his view? I'd be shocked a little if he did, because there aren't any. You know the difference between one guy's opinion and actual science, right?
Quoting 285. Sfloridacat5:




Did you see my comment yesterday about the T.V. commercial we discussed the other day?
if not, I can just post the information again.
Yeah, I responded to your post about it. You must have missed it. I'm still looking for their definition of what they called a warning.
It's interesting to note that while January was very impressive rainfall wise in Florida regarding a classic strong El Nino signature, so February has not been too wet. Now, maybe the later half of the month will be different. But long term guidance doesn't bring any drastic rain makers across Florida at this time, nothing more than a typical February event, and no sign of significant severe threats either.

That being said, it's worth noting that once again, El Nino is more like a strong signal of back round noise, and individual large scale synoptic evolution still "does as it pleases". When we analyze the 1997-98 event's impact on Florida, December was well above average precip for portions of Florida, while other portions not as much. January was near to slightly below average with no real severe events, while February had well above average precip with destructive and deadly severe events in central Florida.

So far for this event, December was well above average precip for south Florida, and above average pecip for north Florida, while central Florida oddly saw one of it's driest Decembers. January featured well above average precip in much of Florida, especially south Florida, and above average severe weather, especially in south Florida. So far February has brought fairly wet conditions to the panhandle of Florida, and near average to a bit drier than average elsewhere, with little to no severe weather.

It's worth noting that February and March typically are more notable months for severe weather and heavy rain outside of the summer in Florida regardless of El Nino. With that said, the results so far show how each El Nino event is different, and how large scale synoptic patterns yield varying results between El Nino events as well as variation over the course of the impact season.
Quoting 304. LargoFl:

LOL I was amazed nad shocked with what he was saying,i had hoped DOC would listen to his talk ..don't know how to retrieve it..i guess it should be on the internet somewhere huh..oh well i'll let it rest..
When exactly did you hear this? There's a searchable archive of radio show transcripts here. Using the term "sea level", I can't find anything close to what you posted for the month of February. The transcripts include everything up to and including today's show.


cold cometh
Anyway the weather is going to be a little cold tonight with lows around -30f

FWIW I am still waiting for the science back up
Quoting 311. nymore:

I see my posts were removed LOL. I see you can not question one on here to back up articles from news orgs with actual science.

It would seem some who run this blog should go to a college campus and be able to be in a safe place (not a place of learning or to be challenged the way it was intended) away from being questioned about their statements.

Anyway the weather is going to be a little cold tonight with lows around -30f

FWIW I am still waiting for the science back up


everyone got too learn get along with all the other kids in the sandbox and things will be better

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
HURRICANE WARNING
=============================
East Of Vanuatu
Southwest of Fiji

At 6:00 AM FST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Four (947 hPa) located at 20.6S 171.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots. Position good based on hourly multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
80 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Deep convection persistent in past 24 hours.eye well defined in infrared imagery last 12 hours. Eye warming and cloud tops cooling past 6 hours. Organization good. Sea surface temperature is around 31C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good. System tracking along the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge located to the east. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye surrounded by W with no eye adjustment yields DT=6.0, MET=5.0 and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 22.7S 172.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 24.3S 173.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 24.4S 176.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
GALE WARNING
============================

At 1:00 AM WST, A Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 11.5S 96.3E or 95 km northwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The developing tropical low is expected to pass northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during Saturday morning and develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday afternoon. Gales may develop to the south of the system prior to it developing into a tropical cyclone.

Rain with strong and gusty northeast winds are currently occurring over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop over the islands during Saturday morning as the system passes to the northwest and then to the west. Conditions should ease during Saturday afternoon and evening as the system moves further away from the islands.

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected with the passage of this system, easing during Saturday evening.

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS 12.4S 95.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 13.5S 93.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 90.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 18.5S 86.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3) Out of Responsibility

Additional Information
=================
Dvorak at 0900 UTC. Using shear pattern, low level center was about 1.25 degrees from edge of cloud on visible imagery. DT was 2.0. Could also get 0.2 to 0.3 curved band wrap.

At 1200 UTC. Curved band wrap of 0.3 gives a DT of 2.0. Trend was D with MET/PAT of 2.0. FT/CI was 2.0. Cocos Island Airport at 1200 UTC reported mean winds of 24 knots [10 minute average]. Intensity set to 30 knots.

At 1800 UTC. Curved band wrap of 0.3/0.4 gives a DT of 2.0 to 2.5. Trend was D with MET/PAT of 2.0. FT/CI was 2.0. Cocos Island Airport at 1800 UTC reported mean winds of 21 knots [10 minute average]. Intensity set to 30 knots

09U has continued a general southwest track, being steered by a mid level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance is in good agreement with a continued southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

There is a good upper divergence with good poleward outflow. CIMMS shear at 0900 UTC showed strong easterly shear between 30 and 40 knots.

As the system moves towards the southwest conditions become more favorable for development with the shear decreasing. Gales may develop to the south of the system before it reaches tropical cyclone intensity during Saturday. Fresh to strong winds are currently being observed at Cocos Island Airport. The risk of gales on the Cocos [Keeling] Islands continues until Saturday afternoon or evening. After this time the system is likely to intensify further but be moving far enough away from the islands.

Based on the current track, the system will move into La Reunion's area of responsibility between 1200 and 1800 UTC on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
I knew it was gonna get messy but I just got back from end of my work day and some last minute extreme cold preps here

makin sure everyone stays warm and toasty inside
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 307. sar2401:

Yeah, I responded to your post about it. You must have missed it. I'm still looking for their definition of what they called a warning.


I've got their app on my phone. I'm going to pay close attention the next time we have an "event" to see if they are issuing independent warnings (of some sort).
During the last event I was too busy watching their coverage on the T.V.
I might even drop him an email and ask him about the cooperation between using their radar to assist the NWS. Because in the past I have heard him say the NWS relies on their local radar at times during severe weather events.
Quoting 167. Greg01:


I have started using a "solid state" anemometer made by Omni Instruments on my sailboat. It has no moving parts and it's extremely sturdy. My particular model only registers up to 116kts, and is accurate to within 2%, but I'm sure commercial versions register much higher. My guess would be they carry solid state wind instruments.
I sailed on the Jewel of the Seas, another Carnival line vessel, in 2005, and got a tour of the weather "shack". They had one solid state anemometer (which was considered experimental at the time), two of the airplane body propeller types, and at least two cup and vane instruments. The weather officer told me he considered the solid state anemometer the most accurate in light winds, the cup and vane types best at recording gusts and accurate wind direction, and the airplane type the most survivable in high winds. They had these mounted on the mainmast, foremast, and one on a satcom tower amidships. My guess was that mounting height on the foremast was at least 150 feet above bridge level, so about 250-300 feet above the sea surface. There were at least four remote monitors for the cup and vane types, including the bridge, in the weather shack, the radio room, and navigator's office. One of the propellor types was used for the readout fed to the guest TV's and public room monitors. The ship is 962 feet long, and he said that wind readings at the same time could vary by as much as 10 knots, depending on the location of the instrument. Kind of interesting, and it's a good indication why a PWS a mile away can have much different readings than my weather station.
319. vis0

Quoting 286. ricderr:

let's talk about el nino...that always brings us together :-)



now where did i place my handy TANDY chart that showed what each resistor colour means.

As i read this its leaning more towards a neutral with a pinch of la nina (careful magilla gorila is near by don't pinch Ogee too hard) but again these are looooong term charts though  based on an educated (by weather history) guess as we know weather is a changing
320. vis0

Quoting 305. Patrap:




Saw the lightning activity begin a few hrs back, but i wonder even if this does not form (not saying it wont) will it retro-curve once it gets past Vermont to create a forcing of more colder air to come down the midwest-western Appalachians and if so how will it affect the Tue-Wed LOW.
i see the Friturday the Twelfth-teenth worked on schedule...now will someone PaaAH-LEASE get Taz to stop buttering my legs. (last blogbytes inside joke)
Quoting 137. vis0:

talk bout worst case stubborn fire taking over blocks in New Jersey in this cold fire hoses will be busting



I remember those images in the 1970's. Some really big ones in NYC, started by faulty space heaters, and smoke detectors weren't in the homes yet.