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How Much Will El Niño Help to Quench California’s Grinding Drought?

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 10:46 PM GMT on January 29, 2016

With hillsides greening up fast, and chunks of coastline falling into the sea, it’s obvious that generous rains (and mountain snows) have returned to large parts of California this winter. But it remains an open question exactly how much this winter will help the state recover from a brutal four years of drought.

We can thank El Niño for the moisture return. One of the three strongest El Niño events since reliable records began in 1950 is still keeping sea surface temperatures (SSTs) much warmer than average over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Those warm waters will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms thousands of miles east of their usual equatorial home. In turn, that displacement will keep forcing the atmosphere to adjust in ways that reverberate for thousand of miles, including northward into North America.


Figure 1. Boulders help shore up the base of an eroding cliff below an apartment complex (top) that residents were forced to evacuate in Pacifica, Calif., on January 27, 2016. Crashing waves and powerful rainstorms during this El Niño winter have put homes perched atop coastal bluffs near San Francisco in danger. Image credit: AP Photo/Jeff Chiu.


In the United States, El Niño tends to produce a stronger-than-usual subtropical jet stream. On average, this leads to wintertime conditions that are wetter than average from California across the Sun Belt to the Gulf States, with drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of states. Temperatures during a strong El Niño typically segue from a warm central and eastern U.S. in November and December to a mild north-cool south tendency in January and February. These temperature patterns have largely materialized, albeit with a lot of variability. There’s been no lack of Gulf Coast moisture recently--especially in southern and central Florida, where this month is among the soggiest Januarys on record in many locations. And after a fire hose of Pacific moisture drenched the Pacific Northwest in the autumn, northern and central California have done very well in January, as has the immediate San Diego area.

Snowpack in the Sierras best in four years, but California drought still dire
Snowpack in the Sierras is 115 percent of normal, said the California State Department of Water Resources on Tuesday. This is the highest since 2011, when the snowpack was at 129 percent. The Sierra snowpack is a critical source of water to the state, contributing about 1/3 of the state’s water supply. Key reservoirs in the northern half of the state are still quite low, but beginning to rise. For example, Lake Oroville, the State Water Project's largest reservoir, is at 60 percent of its historical average for this time of year. This winter’s rains are still a long way from putting a significant dent in California’s four-year drought, though; the latest weekly Drought Monitor for California (January 26, 2016) showed 40 percent of the state in the highest level of drought, “Exceptional”, down from 46 percent at the beginning of the rainy season four months ago.


Figure 2. Change in drought conditions over the Western U.S. for the three-month period ending on January 26, 2016. Washington has seen a dramatic improvement in drought conditions, but California has seen very little improvement in its four-year drought. Image credit: National Drought Mitigation Center.


Will February come through for Southern California?
One part of California has largely missed out on the El Niño bounty thus far: the hugely populated coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Orange County, including the Los Angeles area. After a relatively dry autumn, this area has seen only near-normal precipitation for the month through January 29. Experts on El Niño and regional climate have been urging Southern Californians to be patient for some time, and they’re largely adhering to that advice.

Using the two maps below, John Monteverdi (San Francisco State University) pointed out that the strongest El Niños tend to bring Southern California their heaviest rains in Feburary and March, rather than January. “What I conclude from this is that, so far, what has happened in January is basically what climatology said would happen,” Monteverdi said. “Now if February and March precipitation fails, then this strongest or nearly-strongest El Niño in the record since 1950 will have failed to produce the precipitation we expected.”


Figure 3. Left: Departures from average precipitation (in inches) for the 30-day period from December 28, 2015, to January 26, 2016. Right: Departures from average precipitation in January for the five strongest El Niño events between 1950 and 2014. Image credit: NOAA Regional Climate Centers (left); NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES-CU (right); images courtesy John Monteverdi.


Figure 4. Departures from average in land and ocean temperature for December 2015. Darkest red indicates areas of record-warm temperatures. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Looking at the global scale, what jumps out like a sore (red) thumb is the vast swaths of warmer-than-average temperatures across the world’s oceans, especially across the tropics and subtropics. “Things are very, very warm globally, and subtropical ridging has been unusually pronounced this year,” said Daniel Swain (Stanford University), author of the California Weather Blog. “This ridging includes the semi-permanent Pacific High, which has been largely responsible for keeping the storm track aimed at Northern rather than Southern California.”

Swain added: “On a basic level, warm El Niño forcing puts a lot of heat into the tropical atmosphere and ultimately causes strengthening/straightening of the Pacific jet. That has happened this year, though it has occurred 500 or so miles north of what many people were expecting--a small shift in subtropical ridging by global climate standards, but a critically important one if you happen to live in Los Angeles.”

What’s different about this El Niño
Every El Niño has its peculiarities, and the blockbuster event of 2015-16 is no different. Figure 5 (below) shows the SST departures for the six strongest El Niño events since 1950. One notable difference between the current event and past ones is the dramatically warmer Niño4 region--the westernmost area, far out in the equatorial Central Pacific. This toasty Niño4 helps explain the turbocharged Central Pacific hurricane season of 2015, which sloshed into January 2016 with the unseasonable development of Hurricane Pali--the first hurricane known to prowl within one of the Niño regions shown in the map. It’s not yet clear how the distinctive SST pattern of the Niño regions this winter is intersecting with other factors, including the widespread oceanic warmth elsewhere.

One thing is clear: this isn’t an El Niño Modoki. That subcategory of El Niño, whose downstream effects can differ from those of a “classic” event, is defined by SSTs that are above average in the central Pacific (Niño4) but below average in the far eastern Pacific (Niño1+2). Right now, the Niño1+2 region is still running well above average.



Figure 5. A look at temperatures in the four Niño regions of the equatorial tropical Pacific (see map at top) during the last six El Niño events classified as “strong” or “very strong”, including the current El Niño through December 2015. Years shown in each graphic are the beginning year of the event. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (top), courtesy Jan Null, @ggweather (bottom).

Some hopeful signals for the weekend and beyond
The latest Pacific storm to approach California is trending southward in model projections, a good sign that the Los Angeles area has a shot at its healthiest rains in almost a month. Another good sign: this storm has a robust channel of moisture extending southwestward to the tropical Central Pacific. Local forecasters expect as much as 1” in coastal areas and up to 2” in the mountains and foothills, and those numbers may prove low. If this storm comes through as expected, it will bump the area up to well-above-average totals just in time to close out January. Things may quiet down again for the first few days of February, but that’s not so unusual for SoCal, where even a torrentially wet winter by local standards may see rainfall on only a few days.

In its most recent experimental forecast discussion for weeks 3-4, issued on Friday afternoon and valid for the period Feb. 13-26, NOAA points to model indications that the subtropical jet will undercut Pacific ridging and enhance the odds of above-average rainfall and snowfall over far Southern California and much of the Southwest. As shown in Figure 6 (below), the week 3-4 probabilities have that certain El Niño look to them.

We’ll have a new post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters



Figure 6. NOAA’s experimental extended precipitation outlook (departures from average) for the two-week period of Feb. 13-26, 2016. Image credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center.


El Niño Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Shiny! New!!
Thanks for the new post
You guys rolled out a new blog faster than I could finish my tea!
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson
On an unrelated topic, I like these pretty colors:
Thanks gentlemen.
Thanks Mr. Henson and Dr. Masters!
Thanks. These are mixed news, some good, some bad :-). I wish Calif. the best. Interesting days.

--- A major power breakdown struck Karachi (Pakistan) overnight, as a high-tension 500KV backup power line near Jamshoro tripped in the early hours of Friday, causing the most parts of the city to plunge into darkness, Aaj News reported. According to the reports, the K-Electric said nearly 80 percent of Karachi is in the dark owing to the massive power outage.---

--- Statoil will evacuate its workers from its Snorre B platform in the Snorre oil and gas field in the Norwegian Sea due to forecasts of hurricane-force winds. The high winds and waves are expected to hit the North Sea on Friday. In addition, between 150 and 200 people working at the Statfjord A, B, and C platforms will also be relocated to the Gullfaks field, as well as other platforms. Production is set to proceed as usual, the company said. The Wall Street Journal quoted the company saying that 16 planned helicopter flights to North Sea platforms from western Bergen, Norway, would be also cancelled. Two flights from western Floro will also be called off.
- Last December, a large wave hit a drilling rig operating in the North Sea, killed one worker and injured two others. The rig's accommodation module was also damaged due to strong waves.---
Snorre B.
- Offshore Post Article Link
Thanks for noticing us, senpais. Nice, informative blog.

WU Best Forecast is 1.1" of rain for Sunday. Me likey.

Sorry guys for the rant bad day for me as it seemed everytime a turned around there was an issue. I even took it out on WU as the site kept going down for me so maybe it was just good ole BrightHouse and its terrible service once again.

Anyways 18Z GFS showing another 2" to 3" of rain for us next week.

again to the blog for my post earlier.
4pm today





6pm...



Quoting 11. StormTrackerScott:

Sorry guys for the rant bad day for me as it seemed everytime a turned around there was an issue. I even took it out on WU as the site kept going down for me so maybe it was just good ole BrightHouse and its terrible service once again.

Anyways 18Z GFS showing another 2" to 3" of rain for us next week.

again to the blog for my post earlier.
Sorry for what i said earlier.
Decipher this mathematical poem. Aquak9 and winonegamegiants please, no telling! :) Answer on my blog later this evening.

Thanks for the update !
Light rain here since midnight; Kicking up a little bit more the last 1-1/2 hrs. 0.53" on my PWS as I type. More to come tonight; should turn to snow early tomorrow morning. Rain-on-snow is great for reservoirs, not so much otherwise.


Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 11:47 AM PST on January 29, 2016

The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a

* small stream Flood Advisory for poor drainage areas for...
rain and snowmelt in...
Lassen County in northern California...
Plumas County in northern California...
Mono County in northern California...
Nevada County in northern California...
Alpine County in northern California...
El Dorado County in northern California...
Placer County in central California...
Sierra County in northern California...

* until 1115 PM PST Saturday

* at 1122 am PST... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain and snowmelt
that will cause small stream flooding. Overflowing poor drainage
areas will result in minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to
one inch of rain has already fallen. Additional rainfall of one to
three inches is expected over the area.



... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* the King fire burn area in El Dorado County.

* Through Saturday morning

* anyone living or traveling on roads in the King fire burn area
should be alert for probable Road problems due to flooding...
rock and debris flows. Large portions of the area have been
severely burned. These areas no longer absorb any rainfall...
which can lead to enhanced runoff and possible debris flows.

* Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast over the burn
scar area through Saturday morning. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is possible for several hours this afternoon and evening. Rain
will turn to snow over most of the burn area tonight reducing
the threat of flooding or debris flows.
Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

Decipher this mathematical poem. Aquak9 and winonegamegiants please, no telling! :) Answer on my blog later this evening.




A dozen, a gross, and a score,
plus three times the square root of four,
divided by seven,
plus five times eleven,
is nine squared and not a bit more.

---Jon Saxton

I deciphered the words "dozen", "gross", "score", and "root", and then searched online for the appropriate poem.
WOW! CFS is either on drugs or we may see history yet again with this El-Nino.

Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

Decipher this mathematical poem. Aquak9 and winonegamegiants please, no telling! :) Answer on my blog later this evening.




81=81 (?) Sheer poetry. Edit: I see DC's reply. Very cute.
NWS here in Melbourne is very concerned for flooding issues going forward as the forecast looks very wet. Even lake O is being lowered next week. Not very common you see Lake O being lowered in the dead of Winter.
DCSwithunderscores you are correct!
Quoting 5. wartsttocs:

On an unrelated topic, I like these pretty colors:



Wonder if those colors will reverse come March
This El Niño is now on a downward swing and will be gone by spring or summer
Neutral to La Niña on the way

Sorry Scott you EL Niño is going out the door
Although amounts of ppt have been paltry for us today here in the SF Bay Area, the front appears to have inched southward this afternoon such that the best returns on the radar are now over the Feather River watershed, which is good news for Lake Oroville, which supplies a significant amount of water to SoCal. The slow movement of the front, plus its subtropical tap, should help amp up totals, but they'll need a lot more to get that huge reservoir up to non-drought levels.

Reservoirs further south (two of which serve the Bay Area) are actually doing much better since many of the earlier storms came in from the west.
TC Stan : Cloud tops around the center remain very high/cold. I can't see any reason why it should start weakening anytime soon, before losing contact with the ocean ; but the window which would allow rapid intensification to occur will soon be closed.
A good part of the problem with those cliffs near Pacifica is that the "rock" there is only barely rock, more like gravel. Moreover, the San Andreas Fault runs along the eastern outskirts of town on a diagonal before heading out under the sea at Mussel Rock just north of (or within?) the city limits, the epicenter of the 1906 quake. The proximity of the fault has discombobulated all the terrain. If you look up at the cliffs above Mussel Rock where the fault cuts through them at that point, you can see nothing but a huge gravelly debris pile.
Quoting 25. 999Ai2016:

Cloud tops around the center remain very high/cold. I can't see any sign of imminent weakening.



Neither does Australia



It's poised to make landfall in a dryer part of Australia, flooding could be an issue

Hose aimed at the California coast. I'm hoping to hear a downpour overnight around here. On Sunday, a wave/cyclogenesis will occur along the frontal boundary and is forecast to focus on Central and Southern California, although we're supposed to get some fierce winds, and one assumes, more ocean wave action.
May have to watch next Friday though it could easily slip out to sea.
Fascinating and shocking to see temperatures today in the PLUS 30s over the Fraser Plateau and much of inland western Canada. Usually at this time of year, they have at most teens and often subzero temps which at times, drain out over the Pacific thru the Fraser River Valley and feed a frigid coastal low that makes an excursion down the coast as far south as California. Don't see how that's gonna happen this year. Very different.
Quoting : 27. win1gamegiantsplease

Neither does Australia.


Yep, and it's now or never, if this thing intensifies to cat.3 or possibly higher, it's got only a few hours left to do that. Otherwise, it would be good news.
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

May have to watch next Friday though it could easily slip out to sea.

I have been noticing that has been trending a teeny bit closer, something to potentially keep an eye on.
Quoting 23. wunderkidcayman:

This El Nio is now on a downward swing and will be gone by spring or summer
Neutral to La Nia on the way

Sorry Scott you EL Nio is going out the door
This El nino doesn't want to go.

And the Atlantic AMO is still very negative.

But is only January 29 ;)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
HURRICANE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAN, CATEGORY TWO (08U)
9:07 AM WST January 30 2016
=============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Stan, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 18.3S 118.9E or 225 km north of Port Hedland and 345 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===========
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Stan lies to the north of Port Hedland and continues to track slowly towards the east Pilbara coast. It is expected to reach category 3 intensity tonight prior to landfall and cross the coast between Port Hedland east to Wallal.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are likely to develop in coastal parts between Bidyadanga and Whim Creek, which includes Port Hedland during today increasing to potentially DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h tonight, extending further inland Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 170 km/h are possible near the cyclone center as it makes landfall Sunday morning.

There is the chance that GALES could develop as far east as Broome later today, and as far west as Dampier if the cyclone takes a more westerly track than expected.

Residents between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is forecast for parts of the Pilbara and far western Kimberley and will extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards during Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and Gascoyne Districts. A Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment, Pilbara Coastal Rivers and Fortescue River Catchment. See www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 19.4S 119.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3) North of Pardoo
24 HRS 20.9S 120.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2) Overland Western Australia East of Marble Bar
48 HRS 27.7S 126.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia

Additional Information
==============
Tropical Cyclone Stan has continued intensifying. After being difficult to locate overnight, recent microwave imagery indicates the cyclone has moved slower than expected. The low level center is displaced east of the mid-level center [now evident on Port Hedland radar] consistent with moderate east northeast wind shear.

Intensity of 55knots based on Dvorak CI=4.0 based on MET, while DT using embedded center pattern is higher. This is consistent with SATCON of 58kn [1-min winds]. Rowley Shoals has reported winds to 49 knots some 50 NM to the north. The pattern of convection and numerical weather prediction show the maximum winds to the north of the center but likely to wrap around to the east of track as it intensifies ahead of landfall.

Steering is being influenced by a mid level ridge to the east and an approaching upper level trough. Model guidance is very consistent with south southeast motion to the coast but at a faster rate than the current motion.

Slower means more time over water and thus aiding further development. With conditions remaining unchanged or improving until landfall, Stan should intensify to category 3 [severe tropical cyclone] tonight, and potentially a little stronger if it takes longer to reach the coast. Even after the system weakens over land, there is the potential for wind gusts over 90 km/h on the eastern side of the track well into the interior of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the areas of Broome to Dampier including Port Hedland, extending to inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer
Quoting 23. wunderkidcayman:

This El Niño is now on a downward swing and will be gone by spring or summer
Neutral to La Niña on the way

Sorry Scott you EL Niño is going out the door


Somehow, I sense that you are happy? about that?
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! CFS is either on drugs or we may see history yet again with this El-Nino.




Bad news if it's correct. We will see..
Error?
Quoting 37. CaribBoy:



Bad news if it's correct. We will see..
It also shows and atlantic La nina.
I remember that a powerful winter storm was being forecasted by some models around Groundhog Day of 2009. Does anyone have any archive of model runs for that time? First of all do any of you remember that potential storm?
Aleutian Islands






Stan.

You're kidding, right?
Quoting 43. aquak9:

Stan.

You're kidding, right?


Hey, it was good enough to get retired in the Atlantic

Stan - RGB (vis-vis-ir) - The boy looks healthy.
Quoting 43. aquak9:

Stan.

You're kidding, right?
Quoting 46. StormTrackerScott:



" >




< "
Quoting 46. StormTrackerScott:



" >





I disagree :)
Quoting 11. StormTrackerScott:

Sorry guys for the rant bad day for me as it seemed everytime a turned around there was an issue. I even took it out on WU as the site kept going down for me so maybe it was just good ole BrightHouse and its terrible service once again.

Anyways 18Z GFS showing another 2" to 3" of rain for us next week.

again to the blog for my post earlier.


It's probably BrightHouse. BrightHouse is lousy and over priced. At my parents house, we used to have BrightHouse, and we always had outages, and I mean always. Their solutions were terrible, every time we had an outage, they would just replace the router, or tell us to restart it.

Once we switched away from Brighthouse, it stopped happening. Only every once in a while there are outages, and usually not long, but nothing like the nonsense with BrightHouse.


A little snow in the coastal range as well as the Sierra's. Keep it up!
Quoting 51. HurricaneHunterJoe:



A little snow in the coastal range as well as the Sierra's. Keep it up!


I'm assuming the two blue dots that haven't moved an inch in between SIY and RDD is Mt. Shasta?
Huffington Post Australia : Very Destructive Tropical Cyclone Stan Headed For WA Coast.
- According to Sky News, those in Port Hedland and South Hedland with plans to leave have been urged to do so before conditions deteriorate.
- People in the communities of South Hedland, Sandfire, Pardoo, Marble Bar, Wickham, Point Samson, Roebourne, Karratha, Whim Creek and Dampier need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone, BoM warns.
- Lower-level alerts are current for people in and around coastal and inland communities of Broome to Pardoo.
- Temporary evacuation centres have been set up at Karratha and South Hedland.
Port Hedland.
Article Link for more text/pics/movies.
Port Hedland (Kariyarra: Marapikurrinya) is the second largest town in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, with a population of approximately 14,000. It is right inside the potential area of Stan's imminent landfall.


The clouds are being blown out of the southwest. In this photo to the east, taken around 5pm, you can see the beginnings being shoved up against the Stillwater range. Looks like the rain comes right out there, washing down the snow that's been there since the last few storms.

Highs today in the mid-60's, at 7:30pm we still have the windows open. Lows predicted into the mid-low 40's, and the high tomorrow's not going to be much above that. Cold front coming behind is forecasting lows in the teens a couple nights from now.
Quoting 37. CaribBoy:



Bad news if it's correct. We will see..

If true, then perhaps another record Pacific hurricane season.
Quoting 52. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'm assuming the two blue dots that haven't moved an inch in between SIY and RDD is Mt. Shasta?


Could very well be.......thats about the right locale north of Redding.
Quoting 35. HadesGodWyvern:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
HURRICANE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAN, CATEGORY TWO (08U)
9:07 AM WST January 30 2016
=============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Stan, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 18.3S 118.9E or 225 km north of Port Hedland and 345 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===========
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Stan lies to the north of Port Hedland and continues to track slowly towards the east Pilbara coast. It is expected to reach category 3 intensity tonight prior to landfall and cross the coast between Port Hedland east to Wallal.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are likely to develop in coastal parts between Bidyadanga and Whim Creek, which includes Port Hedland during today increasing to potentially DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h tonight, extending further inland Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 170 km/h are possible near the cyclone center as it makes landfall Sunday morning.

There is the chance that GALES could develop as far east as Broome later today, and as far west as Dampier if the cyclone takes a more westerly track than expected.

Residents between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is forecast for parts of the Pilbara and far western Kimberley and will extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards during Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and Gascoyne Districts. A Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment, Pilbara Coastal Rivers and Fortescue River Catchment. See www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 19.4S 119.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3) North of Pardoo
24 HRS 20.9S 120.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2) Overland Western Australia East of Marble Bar
48 HRS 27.7S 126.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia

Additional Information
==============
Tropical Cyclone Stan has continued intensifying. After being difficult to locate overnight, recent microwave imagery indicates the cyclone has moved slower than expected. The low level center is displaced east of the mid-level center [now evident on Port Hedland radar] consistent with moderate east northeast wind shear.

Intensity of 55knots based on Dvorak CI=4.0 based on MET, while DT using embedded center pattern is higher. This is consistent with SATCON of 58kn [1-min winds]. Rowley Shoals has reported winds to 49 knots some 50 NM to the north. The pattern of convection and numerical weather prediction show the maximum winds to the north of the center but likely to wrap around to the east of track as it intensifies ahead of landfall.

Steering is being influenced by a mid level ridge to the east and an approaching upper level trough. Model guidance is very consistent with south southeast motion to the coast but at a faster rate than the current motion.

Slower means more time over water and thus aiding further development. With conditions remaining unchanged or improving until landfall, Stan should intensify to category 3 [severe tropical cyclone] tonight, and potentially a little stronger if it takes longer to reach the coast. Even after the system weakens over land, there is the potential for wind gusts over 90 km/h on the eastern side of the track well into the interior of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the areas of Broome to Dampier including Port Hedland, extending to inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer


Slower over water usually means upwelling of cooler water and weakening, but maybe there's a pool of warm water there.
Quoting 58. BayFog:

Slower over water usually means upwelling of cooler water and weakening, but maybe there's a pool of warm water there.
I guess since at the surface water is around 30 C, the ocean heat content must also be high in that area, so it's not much of a problem, unless maybe if the cyclone had reversed direction after having stalled several days over the same area.
___
Quoting 35. HadesGodWyvern:
Residents between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
@ BaltimoreBrian The sea turtles tend to nest in places where there isn't much land development along the coast, from the sea islands to the crystal coast. Maybe lighting at odd-hours (before dawn to after dusk) is a learned behavior to protect their species?

Quoting 56. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Could very well be.......thats about the right locale north of Redding.


It looks right on the map now looking at it, and it looks like snow over Lassen Peak too. Been reading a bit on the Cascade volcanoes lately.
Quoting 23. wunderkidcayman:

This El Niño is now on a downward swing and will be gone by spring or summer
Neutral to La Niña on the way

Sorry Scott you EL Niño is going out the door


A bit of an early call. I'm seeing indications of it going either way.
The NWS in Ruskin has a good summary on the rain event in Central and South Florida. Although the heaviest rains fell further south in Florida there was a secondary maximum from the Tampa Bay area up through the Orlando area, where 2-4 inches of rain fell.

Obviously Lee County (where Ft. Myers is) really got a lot again, most of the county had 3-6 inches.

The heaviest rains of all fell in parts of Broward and Palm Beach County where upwards of 6-8 inches fell in some areas.

Crazy stuff!

Link

7 day total:
Quoting 62. Jedkins01:

The NWS in Ruskin has a good summary on the rain event in Central and South Florida. Although the heaviest rains fell further south in Florida there was a secondary maximum from the Tampa Bay area up through the Orlando area, where 2-4 inches of rain fell.

Obviously Lee County (where Ft. Myers is) really got a lot again, most of the county had 3-6 inches.

The heaviest rains of all fell in parts of Broward and Palm Beach County where upwards of 6-8 inches fell in some areas.

Crazy stuff!

Link

7 day total:


Hey Jed, how do you think next weeks rain event is shaping up?
Quoting 63. Bucsboltsfan:



Hey Jed, how do you think next weeks rain event is shaping up?


I don't think it's going to be major, given that the parent frontal system will be much further north, and I mean way north up in the Ohio Valley. That said, typically a system that far north would bring low rain chances with best upper support and forcing well north.

However, with the subtropical jet remaining active over Florida, it will help to make up for the placement of the system by providing some divergence aloft as it usually does, which will enhance rising motion and moisture return enough that there could at least be decent rains.

Given that, looks like rain chances will still be pretty good, and rainfall is forecast to be about 0.50-0.75 area wide as of now. Some models have been hinting at a low pressure wave developing in the eastern gulf along the front, which would slow it's progress and enhance moisture. If that happens, rainfall could be heavier, but for now, looks like decent rains are possible but nothing special, and the parent system will be too far north for organized severe weather.

In about 10-12 days, models are developing a pretty robust low in western gulf and bringing very heavy rains across Central Florida similar to how this event was, but with the bullseye over Central Florida, it's too far into the forecast though, so we'll see how it trends with time. Worth keeping an eye for now.
Quoting 39. Gearsts:

It also shows and atlantic La nina.


Maybe this Altantic La Nina will actually bring more rain to the NE Caribbean... who knows. The climate is crazy!
Quoting 65. CaribBoy:



Maybe this Altantic La Nina will actually bring more rain to the NE Caribbean... who knows. The climate is crazy!
CFS is showing that too.
Link / How the rocky western coastline of Britain is reshaped by extreme weather.
Phys.org. January 29, 2016.
As the west coast of Britain emerges from yet another battering - this time caused by the "remnants" of the United States' Winter Storm Jonas blizzards - new research has been published which reveals the extent to which our rocky coastline is being reshaped by extreme weather.
Dr Larissa Naylor, a Lecturer in Physical Sciences at the University of Glasgow, has just published research in a special issue of Earth Surface Processes and Landforms on stormy geomorphology. It uses data immediately before, during and after a storm, for the first time globally, to show that large boulders can shift daily in extreme weather.
"The powerful waves were so strong that large (0.67 ton) boulders as long as an adult and heavier than a washing machine were lifted and flipped over while smaller, shoebox-sized boulders moved up to 50 m in 24 hours and over 90 metres in four days. Other boulders were broken into smaller pieces and the rock bed was ripped apart, creating new boulders.
These data show that we cannot assume that rock coasts change infrequently and they are thus at low risk to storm damage. They show us that rock coasts are dynamic and responsive to storms and that they generate and transport rock material along the coast towards beaches and barriers that often act as coastal defences,"
said Dr Naylor.
Dr Naylor's research was carried out in March 2008 at the time of an extra-tropical cyclone named Johanna which led to coastal erosion and flooding from Wales to Northern Spain. Her research showed that, "contrary to popular assumptions, rock coasts do erode quickly and that coastal boulders are transported up to 10s of metres daily under storm conditions in Wales".
Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

Decipher this mathematical poem. Aquak9 and winonegamegiants please, no telling! :) Answer on my blog later this evening.




26 + 66 = 92
Bob, that experimental outlook may be good for SoCal and points east in terms of above-average precip, but the catchments from which SoCal gets most of its water are shown as just average. Along with the near-term dry period you mentioned, the total picture for February is very much not what we would hope for from a strong El Nino.

If March too is a relative bust then Bill Patzert and some other mets are going to have to go into hiding for a while!

The larger question that no one seems to want to talk about is whether the ridge/blob pattern will reassert itself following the El Nino. At this point there's a fair amount of science pointing to exactly that.
Mount Shasta, CA wringing out max snowfall from the available moisture :

Quite a nasty storm over the British Iles now with a potential for a lot of damage.
Interesting shots of Nacreous clouds.

Link

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=nacreous clouds ,&hl=en-GB&rlz=1T4GUEA_enES554ES556&source=lnms&tb m=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjfmouiotHKAhXCvRoKHSASD_0Q_ AUIBygB&biw=1296&bih=632

Link

I'm surprised looking at the blog heading photos of he amount of houses built on top of what appears to be just soil. The hand of doom is never far away from these kinds of events. There are going to be a lot of tears and claims along the west coast with this kind of thing. I would imagine that the insurance companies are hoping that the cliffs hang on so as they can revoke policy's for the coming years of collapse.
I would doubt that anything can but delay for a short time the collapse of the cliffs, unless there is a severe earthquake uplift, in which case the damage will be so great that nothing much will survive anyway.
A lot of lessons to be learned from this as the sea levels also rise.
Same thing happening in the UK with miles of eastern coastline claimed by the sea over the recorded history of the last few hundred years.
Quoting 74. PlazaRed:

Quite a nasty storm over the British Iles now with a potential for a lot of damage.


That storm has left the UK, another one is passing by now.



Record permafrost erosion in Alaska bodes ill for Arctic infrastructure

The record erosion German scientists have been measuring in Alaska probably hasn’t been making the headlines because it is happening in a very sparsely populated area, where no homes or important structures are endangered.

Nevertheless, it certainly provides plenty of food for thought, says permafrost scientist Jens Strauss from the Potsdam-based research unit of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). He and an international team have measured riverbank, erosion rates which exceed all previous records along the Itkillik River in northern Alaska. In a study published in the journal Geomorphology, the researchers report that the river is eating into the bank at 19 metres per year in a stretch of land where the ground contains a particularly large quantity of ice.

“These results demonstrate that permafrost thawing is not exclusively a slow process, but that its consequences can be felt immediately”, says Strauss.


Link

2 articles in German with pictures of the site -

Link

An even crazier picture –
Short good morning hello from windy Germany. Thanks for the Nino-Infos, Doc and Bob; I really hope the drought in California will be gone the next weeks! Love to see maps with streams of moisture heading towards Cali (as I enjoyed to watch the end of the drought in Texas months ago).

Before I dropped out early last evening I've spotted the measurement of a 213 km/h/132 mph at the western coast of Norway at the lighthouse of Krakenes due to storm "T(h)or" = "Gertrude". More very strong winds were recorded nearby and in the following hours. May have been record strong winds for some places. There is an article in English about it, but unfortunately hidden behind a paywall. Translating other Norwegian articles by google I get the info that there's quite a lot of damage (blown roof tops etc.) at this coastline, injuries, and thousands were/are without power. Below a translated snipped from this article:

Kari Bergfjord by weather prediction in Western Norway have gone through the different weather stations for "Tors' ravages.
The highest mean wind (average wind of ten minutes), red, note. were measured in:
Myrkdalen: 40 meters per second (hurricane)
Kvamsoy in Hardanger: 29.3 meters per second (storm)
Fedje: 28.4 meters per second (storm)
Finse: 28.4 meters per second (storm)
Slatteroy lighthouse (Bomlo): 27.1 meters per second (storm)
There were also some violent gusts were recorded on Friday. Here are the most credible:
Myrkdalen 49 meters per second
Slatteroy lighthouse: 41.7 meters per second
Kvamsoy: 39.8 meters per second
Fedje: 38.7 meters per second.
Fossmark, Vaksdal: 34.9 meters per second
So there were gusts up to 49 meters per second in Myrkdalen. Converted this is 176.4 km / h.


Maybe more infos for international readers will be available sometime later. I'll check back later as well.

Edit: wetteronline.de has this map with even stronger gales for Krakenes:



Double edit: Found another Norwegian article; below an attempt with google to translate some of it (not sure whether the new record refers to whole Norway or just this single weather station though):
Extreme Storm Tor set new wind record
Never before higher winds had been measured as when extreme storm Tor hit the coast of Sogn og Fjordane yesterday.
Tor hit Norway with tremendous force Friday afternoon, blew over nine counties and across large parts of southwest country and Trondelag in the night, and then moved north.
Tor yesterday set a wind record when at Krakenes lighthouse in Sogn og Fjordane an average wind speed of 48.9 meters per second was registered.
The strongest wind type, hurricane, occurs when the measured wind speeds of more than 32.7 meters per second. ...


Telling video (embedding is forbidden): Storm Tor and the ferry boat.
Quoting 75. MahFL:



That storm has left the UK, another one is passing by now.

A friend of mine in the UK said that its been raining for months with endless storms.
I remember very big storms in the spring in England, so there are probably a lot more to come yet, meanwhile an earlier comment about the size and speed of boulders being moved by the sea was interesting. Imagine all over the world massive waves hurling not only water but sand and boulders at the cliffs and shores. As sea levels rise, then previously untouched areas will become very vulnerable, leading to more boulders for ammunition in the endless erosion of the shorelines.
Its like some storyline from a SI FI book? Except of course its not a story line, its really happening!
Meanwhile the banks of Artic rivers are being eaten away by rivers swollen with historic ice melts, as the permafrost turns back into liquid water to add its bit to sea level rises and the newly thawed organic matter yields up cO2 along with all sorts of other gaseous delights.

My OH my, what an interesting time to be an observer and participant!
Quoting 55. BayFog:


If true, then perhaps another record Pacific hurricane season.
Not likely with a La Nina.
Quoting 61. Bucsboltsfan:



A bit of an early call. I'm seeing indications of it going either way.
I'll state the same thing, Maybe Scott will switch to the dark side, and do Nina updates, for the next 3 yrs. or so.
Hey, Brian,

Ted Cruz keeps saying that satellites don’t show global warming. Here's the problem

The problem is, the satellites don't show Ted Cruz. He needs a selfie.
what irks me about our provider is they offer substantially cheaper rates for newcomers while leaving our rates high. how about rewarding the reliable customer?
climatology says la nina but climate sometimes has a mind of its own
I can't wait!


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300826
SPC AC 300826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT IN
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TUE/D4. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE LESS COMPARED TO EARLIER PROGS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND A LONG DURATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A SQUALL LINE...AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES FROM NRN MS TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...A MOIST AIR MASS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THERE.

FOR WED/D5...A SUBSTANTIAL ZONE OF SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK EXCEPT FOR WHAT REMAINS OF THE SFC TROUGH. WHILE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S F SHOULD EXIST AS FAR N AS NC...WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR A
D5 AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE.

COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEYOND WED/D5 AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE E COAST.
I am a Republican but I wish the Republicans would stop be so arrogant and just accept that there is global warming...
Quoting 85. Camerooski:

I am a Republican but I wish the Republicans would stop be so arrogant and just accept that there is global warming...
The globe is warming. It is a established fact. How much the human race is accountable for remains to be seen, Quite bit of the warming was due to air born pollution.. Soon we will have the exact number. Either way, a warmer world will have consequences, and changes will be made.
Because it'll be warm this weekend, let's throw a party!!!

Theme song for this weekend's warm temps



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT IN
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TUE/D4. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE LESS COMPARED TO EARLIER PROGS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND A LONG DURATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A SQUALL LINE...AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES FROM NRN MS TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...A MOIST AIR MASS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THERE.

FOR WED/D5...A SUBSTANTIAL ZONE OF SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK EXCEPT FOR WHAT REMAINS OF THE SFC TROUGH. WHILE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S F SHOULD EXIST AS FAR N AS NC...WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR A
D5 AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE.

COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEYOND WED/D5 AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE E COAST.


..JEWELL.. 01/30/2016

Hmm, finally what the CFS is showing is actually quite interesting for the NE Caribbean. This year may not be as boring as last year after all. However the Windwards Islands could be drier than average, but anyway, they will still be green....
06z GFS showing a setup that would be conducive for snow flurries as far south as Tampa in 10 days (nonsense land, but one can hope).

Quoting 86. hydrus:

The globe is warming. It is a established fact. How much the human race is accountable for remains to be seen, Quite bit of the warming was due to air born pollution.. Soon we will have the exact number. Either way, a warmer world will have consequences, and changes will be made.

???????
To far out, but looks interesting..

Quoting 91. ACSeattle:


???????
Ask me a question instead of question marks.


More snow than we usually get. 8am and 32*F. I don't see it letting up anytime soon. Fallon, NV
Quoting 70. spbloom:

Bob, that experimental outlook may be good for SoCal and points east in terms of above-average precip, but the catchments from which SoCal gets most of its water are shown as just average. Along with the near-term dry period you mentioned, the total picture for February is very much not what we would hope for from a strong El Nino.

If March too is a relative bust then Bill Patzert and some other mets are going to have to go into hiding for a while!

The larger question that no one seems to want to talk about is whether the ridge/blob pattern will reassert itself following the El Nino. At this point there's a fair amount of science pointing to exactly that.

There's nothing abnormal about a ridge along the West Coast. The Pacific High is a very normal feature, and SoCal is normally a very dry place. The "blob" on the other hand is not i.e. an area of warmer than normal SSTs over the North Pacific. To the extent that these warmer SSTs help feed the descending air that helps build the Pacific High, making it more resilient in the face of fronts and jet streams, perhaps there is something to be concerned about. On the other hand, warmer SSTs can enhance the strength and moisture of any cyclones that pass over it, as long as they also have some decent cold air and associated strong jet. We've seen both phenoms so far this season.

I'm fascinated how today's computer models are able to crunch better, but still imperfect data, to come up with mid or long range forecasts, even when satellite photos don't readily suggest agreement.

For example, the forecast has been for this "river" (which delivered a non-river amount/extent of rain in most areas of northern CA)) to generate a storm that would head into Central and Southern California. But looking at the satellite, one would have to conclude that a wave on the front is actually headed north, perhaps even toward Oregon. Then again, maybe the computers are "seeing" something else in the crunch, another development not yet apparent on the satellite.

We shall see.

I'm fascinated how today's computer models are able to crunch better, but still imperfect data, to come up with mid or long range forecasts, even when satellite photos don't readily suggest agreement.

For example, the forecast has been for this "river" (which delivered a non-river amount/extent of rain in most areas of northern CA)) to generate a storm that would head into Central and Southern California. But looking at the satellite, one would have to conclude that a wave on the front is actually headed north, perhaps even toward Oregon. Then again, maybe the computers are "seeing" something else in the crunch, another development not yet apparent on the satellite.

We shall see.
Quoting 93. hydrus:

Ask me a question instead of question marks.

Ok, why do you favor us with model output with a time stamp of 10+ days?
Quoting 88. hydrus:




DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT IN
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TUE/D4. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE LESS COMPARED TO EARLIER PROGS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND A LONG DURATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A SQUALL LINE...AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES FROM NRN MS TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...A MOIST AIR MASS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THERE.

FOR WED/D5...A SUBSTANTIAL ZONE OF SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK EXCEPT FOR WHAT REMAINS OF THE SFC TROUGH. WHILE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S F SHOULD EXIST AS FAR N AS NC...WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR A
D5 AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE.

COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEYOND WED/D5 AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE E COAST.


..JEWELL.. 01/30/2016




And I'm in that red! What could it possibly mean?
Cirrus...

Hope the NWS is correct!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
443 AM PST SAT JAN 30 2016

LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. MOISTURE FROM A
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 250
PERCENT OF NORMAL...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK...AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AROUND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOUNDINGS FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION SOUNDINGS
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. LOWER LEVEL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR
ARE BORDERLINE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT.

RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
IN THE DESERTS...AMOUNTS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH.

SNOW LEVELS NEAR 7000 FEET...WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 4000 TO 4500 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET WITH
SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND 12 TO 20 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET.
104. vis0
can't edit correct out the windows it goes
Things definitely looking interesting the week of the 10th for the potential of another snow storm according to the models.
Quoting 105. Drakoen:

Things definitely looking interesting the week of the 10th for the potential of another snow storm according to the models.
What about the 5th.GFS was showing a small event
Quoting 106. washingtonian115:

What about the 5th.GFS was showing a small event


Models trending off shore with that event.
Wow!

Number one..



Maybe number 2...Looks bad..

Quoting 100. ACSeattle:


Ok, why do you favor us with model output with a time stamp of 10 days?
Post #99 is at 90 hours, and #108 is at 78 hours , not that far out..Threw in the 276 for kicks...I,m serious AC...Just hit ignore if you are disturbed by my long range models. they do detect large scale pattern shifts, and I will post it again.
Quoting 95. nonblanche:



More snow than we usually get. 8am and 32*F. I don't see it letting up anytime soon. Fallon, NV


Snow has fallen in Fallon....
Quoting 89. CaribBoy:

Hmm, finally what the CFS is showing is actually quite interesting for the NE Caribbean. This year may not be as boring as last year after all. However the Windwards Islands could be drier than average, but anyway, they will still be green....
CFS showing and early Cape-Verde season.
Quoting 111. Dakster:



Snow has fallen in Fallon....

Yeah, more snow than I received at my place just east of Truckee, 5900' elevation. Rain all day yesterday, finally turned to snow some time after midnight. 1.76 inches of rain and melted snow at my PWS.
Quoting 73. MahFL:

Mount Shasta, CA wringing out max snowfall from the available moisture :




It's mostly sunny in the area, I bet that would make a nice photograph of snowfall 14,000 feet up

NorCal got some....
It was proper Sierra Cement down in the Valley. Melting now, but the kids had their snowcones and snow play.

The human kids,



...and the caprine ones.

Quoting 116. PedleyCA:


NorCal got some....

But hardly an "atmospheric river". This was mostly a mid and upper level plume, so orographics were confined to terrain above 5-6000 feet. We accumulated about 1/2 inch overnight of light rain here in our SF Bay Area locale.
Quoting 117. nonblanche:

It was proper Sierra Cement down in the Valley. Melting now, but the kids had their snowcones and snow play.

The human kids,



...and the caprine ones.



Juicy at higher elevations, which is good for the reservoirs.
Quoting 114. Patrap:



'Very Large' Avalanche Kills 5 Snowmobilers In British Columbia
The avalanche was human-triggered, officials said.
01/29/2016 10:17 pm ET | Updated 14 hours ago


Quoting 112. Gearsts:

CFS showing and early Cape-Verde season.

Assuming minimal SAL and no lingering wind shear from El Nino. That Atlantic blob, or should we call it, the ANTI-blob of cold water may have some unpredictable deleterious effects on tropical developments.
121. MahFL
Quoting 119. BayFog:


Juicy at higher elevations, which is good for the reservoirs.


Lake Shasta did go up another 1% :

50% of Total Capacity
74% of Historical Avg. For This Date
Good evening. Old Europe really gets lively weather these days. With the chain of strong storms hitting its north it more reminds you of autumn than of mid winter ...

I've spent the day under this interesting looking frontal boundary of the dear Gertrude/Tor/Marita-storm which hit the British Isles and Norway yesterday and last night, providing notable rains and winds for us which should continue tomorrow.


Current IR pic shows the next storm racing over the Atlantic (the large swath of clouds to the left) with the destination of the usual suspects:


Surface map for tomorrow with Norkys (= British "Henry") gaining force to annoy the British Isles. Notice the yellow line of a disturbance across Poland and the Baltic States in the east. I guess this line is currently causing some thunderstorms (!) in western Germany. (I wonder whether lightning and thunder may awake me later this night at Mainz near Frankfurt, doh):


If you want to know more: BBC weather got a very nice video of the upcoming development with Henry and its lot which will follow some days later:


Click it to get the video.

As the BBC-video shows, most parts of central and southern Europe will experience very mild air in the week to come (culprit is the strong westerly jet stream). Below see the temperature anomalies for next week. Notice the huge anomaly in the Balkans! Refugees on their track down there will be happy that winter might be already over (adjacent countries maybe not so much. Lot of political trouble here with this issue):

Quoting 121. MahFL:
Lake Shasta did go up another 1% :

50% of Total Capacity
74% of Historical Avg. For This Date


"Awesome to see" - I concur with the last statement of this report :-)
How the rocky western coastline of Britain is reshaped by extreme weather

Dr Naylor%u2019s research was carried out in March 2008 at the time of an extra-tropical cyclone named Johanna which led to coastal erosion and flooding from Wales to Northern Spain. Her research showed that, %u201Ccontrary to popular assumptions, rock coasts do erode quickly and that coastal boulders are transported up to 10s of metres daily under storm conditions in Wales%u201D.

%u201CThe powerful waves were so strong that large (0.67 ton) boulders as long as an adult and heavier than a washing machine were lifted and flipped over while smaller, shoebox-sized boulders moved up to 50 m in 24 hours and over 90 metres in four days. Other boulders were broken into smaller pieces and the rock bed was ripped apart, creating new boulders,%u201D said Dr Naylor.


Read more at:
Link
Quoting 90. CybrTeddy:

06z GFS showing a setup that would be conducive for snow flurries as far south as Tampa in 10 days (nonsense land, but one can hope).




I don't understand why models do this, with the GFS being the most likely. Look where the 540 thickness line is. It's not really reasonable to expect snow south of the 540 line unless you're near it end surface temps are below freezing. There are exceptions as it's not a magic number, and I'm not going to go into a length explanation on atmospheric dynamics, but a thickness of 540 or lower is pretty much needed for snow. Usually, even if temps are at freezing or colder, values higher than 540 result in sleet or freezing rain. Conversely, low enough thickness can allow snow at temps above freezing, as we had here in Tallahassee last weekend.

The best way to get snow in the Tampa Bay area/west coast of Florida, is to get a thickness a good notch below 540, say down to 530 or 520. The reason why is that a NW in the wake of a low is what will generate the ocean effect precip, but the ocean modifies the airmass, so you need the air to be cold enough with height(shorter distances between mb surfaces) to get snow.
Quoting 88. hydrus:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT IN
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TUE/D4. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE LESS COMPARED TO EARLIER PROGS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND A LONG DURATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A SQUALL LINE...AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES FROM NRN MS TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...A MOIST AIR MASS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THERE.

FOR WED/D5...A SUBSTANTIAL ZONE OF SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK EXCEPT FOR WHAT REMAINS OF THE SFC TROUGH. WHILE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S F SHOULD EXIST AS FAR N AS NC...WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR A
D5 AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE.

COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEYOND WED/D5 AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE E COAST.
It seems to be the new normal this winter that we have models agreeing 10 days out and then going off in different directions 3 days out. This event is, unfortunately, no different. In what both the GFS and ECMWF had as a very progressive and negatively tilted low 10 days ago, the GFS remains progressive while the Euro wants to slow the system down. The GFS has the low in in the southern Great Lakes when the cold front comes through Tuesday afternoon while the Euro has it up in Canada. Both models have backed off the negative tilt, but timing agreement has gotten much worse, with the GFS having the front and attendant squall line coming through Tuesday afternoon with the Euro now saying as late as 9:00 am Wednesday. Grr... If the GFS is right, the probability of severe storms is still elevated. If the Euro wins, it's going to be 16-20 hours later and nothing but some maybe strong storms. The NAM is still a bit too far out to give much guidance except it keeps the front further out in front of the low with the low further south. So we have either a couple of thunderstorms, a squall line with some strong storms, or an QLCS with severe storms and embedded tornadoes. Maybe things will get better by tomorrow.

In the meantime, a nice sunny day here. It is a bit breezy, and even with a temperature of 71, the humidity is low enough that the breeze feels cool in shirtsleeves. The return flow from the Gulf is not really getting cranked up yet but, for once, I'm looking forward to some humidity when it does. Between having a cold, honking constantly like the AFLAC!! duck, and the low humidity, my nose looks like a huge red cauliflower. :-)
127. MahFL
Quoting 98. BayFog:

... But looking at the satellite, one would have to conclude that a wave on the front is actually headed north, perhaps even toward Oregon. Then again, maybe the computers are "seeing" something else in the crunch, another development not yet apparent on the satellite.

We shall see...


Remember the IR sat pics show the top layer clouds movement, the lower clouds are going SSE as is the jet stream :
Speckled clouds moving SSE :



Jetstream :


This is all supposed to generate Winter Storm Kayla.
Quoting 117. nonblanche:
Melting now, but the kids had their snowcones and snow play.


Snow is beautiful. Please don’t eat it.

“As a mother who is an atmospheric physical chemist, I definitely do not suggest my young kids to eat snow in urban areas in general,” Parisa Ariya, professor of chemistry and atmospheric sciences at Canada’s McGill University who led the research, told the Huffington Post.

Ariya’s research wasn’t primarily focused on snow as a gastronomic delicacy. Instead, she and her colleagues were looking at how snow and cold interact with particles in gasoline exhaust.

They found that the snow acted like a sponge, efficiently removing chemicals like benzene, toulene, xylenes and others from the air.

Link

Cloud formation near Port Hedland as Tropical Cyclone Stan draws nearer to the coast (Instagram: clokkannas_)

--- Link / BREAKING : Tropical Cyclone Stan crosses Pilbara coast of WA, ABC News ---

"Tropical Cyclone Stan has crossed the coastline in Western Australia's north-west Pilbara region, bringing heavy rainfall and wind gusts of up to 140 kilometres per hour." Stan is the first cyclone of the season for Australia.
___
Meanwhile, the weather didn't need to be any more extreme in Australia:

"- Electricity crews are scrambling to restore power to more than 40,000 homes and business hit by stormy weather in Sydney's south on Saturday.
- After a sunny start to the day, the expected storms rolled in, with the Bureau of Meteorology issuing a severe thunderstorm warning for large parts of north-western Sydney. Spectacular lightning and some hail was reported across chunks of western Sydney, and Ausgrid company has reported that emergency crews are working to restore power to 40,000 residents in the city's south after the storm cut power to high voltage cables in the area.
- The State Emergency Services has received about 300 calls for assistance in the last few hours, as well as six flood rescues : some callers were being greeted by a busy tone because the call centre was being "maxed out". "We had 800 calls for assistance last night, so you could say it's 1100 for the weekend".

- Weatherzone meteorologist Sam Terry said a severe thunderstorm had led to "significant rainfalls" in parts of western Sydney, including more than 15 millimetres in a 10 minute period near Badgerys Creek. "That's more than enough to lead to flash flooding," he said. Terry said the worst of the rainfall hit in places like Penrith, which saw 40 millimetres. - Palen Creek, about 100km southwest of Brisbane, recorded 68mm rainfall in just one hour on Saturday afternoon while Pomona in Noosa received a 48mm bucketing. Cedar Vale, southwest of Gladstone, copped a whopping 47mm in 30 minutes while Mount Wolvi in southeast Queensland recorded 71mm in an hour.

- It is the second storm Sydney has suffered through in two days, and the majority of the focus had again been in the west. The Bureau of Meteorology issued and updated warning just after 6pm saying that further storms were still possible."

--- Link / Storms in East, as WA Awaits Stan ; Heavy rains miss Tasmanian hot spots ---
Quoting 128. RobertWC:

Quoting 117. nonblanche:
Melting now, but the kids had their snowcones and snow play.


Snow is beautiful. Please don’t eat it.

“As a mother who is an atmospheric physical chemist, I definitely do not suggest my young kids to eat snow in urban areas in general,” Parisa Ariya, professor of chemistry and atmospheric sciences at Canada’s McGill University who led the research, told the Huffington Post.

Ariya’s research wasn’t primarily focused on snow as a gastronomic delicacy. Instead, she and her colleagues were looking at how snow and cold interact with particles in gasoline exhaust.

They found that the snow acted like a sponge, efficiently removing chemicals like benzene, toulene, xylenes and others from the air.

Link


Benzene, xylene, toluene
You'll find us in your gasoline
Don't worry, we won't make you sneeze
Instead we'll give you lung disease
132. MahFL
Quoting 97. BayFog:

Then again, maybe the computers are "seeing" something else in the crunch, another development not yet apparent on the satellite.



One more day BayFog:

".A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM 7000 FEET...
TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 4000 TO 4500 FEET
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT."
133. vis0
How was the moon created?
 3 links in  my zilly blog pg   .6 (psst, link is on the dot before the 6) cmmnt#294  plus my own nutty theory and fah-reee!, gawds recipe for creating the moon.
All that for how much? $99.99, no ...$19.99 ,no ...just  yer sanity.

wanted to post the comment here but accidentally clicked on POST instead of PREVIEW and paid the price inn not being able to edit it.

weather? watching HHjoe doing his version of a wet t-shirt contest  as Ca. get moisturized. In the east watching the 5-7+ day models and how ENSO is fluctuating as it lowers a bit.
Quoting 125. Jedkins01:



I don't understand why models do this, with the GFS being the most likely. Look where the 540 thickness line is. It's not really reasonable to expect snow south of the 540 line unless you're near it end surface temps are below freezing. There are exceptions as it's not a magic number, and I'm not going to go into a length explanation on atmospheric dynamics, but a thickness of 540 or lower is pretty much needed for snow. Usually, even if temps are at freezing or colder, values higher than 540 result in sleet or freezing rain. Conversely, low enough thickness can allow snow at temps above freezing, as we had here in Tallahassee last weekend.

The best way to get snow in the Tampa Bay area/west coast of Florida, is to get a thickness a good notch below 540, say down to 530 or 520. The reason why is that a NW in the wake of a low is what will generate the ocean effect precip, but the ocean modifies the airmass, so you need the air to be cold enough with height(shorter distances between mb surfaces) to get snow.

Not just the 540 line issue, but this is also supposed to happen at 1800z, or noon CST. It's possible to get snow in the daylight here with a good shot of cold air and available moisture, but it's a lot more likely after dark. It also shows the 522 line right through my house. Given the available moisture and much colder air here, it seems like it would reasonable to expect something frozen, but there's not. A model almost 12 days out loses so much resolution that all it can do is give a rough approximation of what might happen. My reading of it is that we may see some much colder air along with the passage of a cold front. Depending on what happens in the Gulf and when the cold air arrives, there might be snow somewhere in Alabama, Georgia, or Florida. This kind of solution is shown by the GFS at least four times a winter, and we all know how often that really results in snow.
Quoting 131. win1gamegiantsplease:



Benzene, xylene, toluene
You'll find us in your gasoline
Don't worry, we won't make you sneeze
Instead we'll give you lung disease



ROFLMAO.

I see the GIants and Dolphins will be at the superbowl this year... In the stands watching.

BTW - Avoid the Yellow or brown snow...
Quoting 90. CybrTeddy:

06z GFS showing a setup that would be conducive for snow flurries as far south as Tampa in 10 days (nonsense land, but one can hope).




Hey Ted! Keep in mind the extended GFS (hours 246-384) uses 12-hourly average precip, which often appears to overlap the rain/snow line behind a strong cold front, but in reality the instantaneous precip field does not. The front moves a lot in 12 hours, thus the extent of post-frontal precip is untrustworthy. None of that Florida snow is real, I'm sorry to say.
Quoting 131. win1gamegiantsplease:



Benzene, xylene, toluene
You'll find us in your gasoline
Don't worry, we won't make you sneeze
Instead we'll give you lung disease

BWHAhaha...I don't know if I'm the only one in the world like this but, when I was a kid, I loved the smell of gasoline. I'd stand near the car when Dad filled her up just so I could do a little surreptitious huffing. That was back when it was full of lead too. We used to make our own snow cones by gathering up a wagon full and drenching it in Log Cabin syrup. This was in Cleveland, not far from the mills. We weren't allowed to make snow cones if the snow turned pink...or green, depending on what grade of steel was in the Bessemer converter that day. Thank God there weren't any professors studying snow back then. My Mom would have fainted dead away if she found out that stuff was dangerous. :-)
Quoting 136. Levi32:



Hey Ted! Keep in mind the extended GFS (hours 246-384) uses 12-hourly average precip, which often appears to overlap the rain/snow line behind a strong cold front, but in reality the instantaneous precip field does not. The front moves a lot in 12 hours, thus the extent of post-frontal precip is untrustworthy. None of that Florida snow is real, I'm sorry to say.


I would also think interior areas would have a more likely chance of seeing "flurries" than over the relatively warm GOM. But the model is only showing snow over water, but not over the Peninsula.
Quoting 117. nonblanche:

It was proper Sierra Cement down in the Valley. Melting now, but the kids had their snowcones and snow play.

The human kids,



...and the caprine ones.


My brother reports a surprise two inches in Reno from about four hours worth of snow that started about 0300. It got just cold enough to change the rain to snow, but the temperature is up to 38, so most of it is melting already. Tomorrow looks like a different story. The incoming storm is going to lower snow levels to the valley floors pretty quickly Sunday morning, and it looks like enough precipitation to take snow through the evening before ending. This may be the biggest storm in quite a while, with Reno looking at 3-6 inches and more like 8 inches out your way. Those totals may be on the low side if the storm focuses just a little south of the current forecast. I expect the kids can build some big snowmen by tomorrow evening.
Quoting 96. BayFog:


There's nothing abnormal about a ridge along the West Coast. The Pacific High is a very normal feature, and SoCal is normally a very dry place. The "blob" on the other hand is not i.e. an area of warmer than normal SSTs over the North Pacific. To the extent that these warmer SSTs help feed the descending air that helps build the Pacific High, making it more resilient in the face of fronts and jet streams, perhaps there is something to be concerned about. On the other hand, warmer SSTs can enhance the strength and moisture of any cyclones that pass over it, as long as they also have some decent cold air and associated strong jet. We've seen both phenoms so far this season.
Sure, but this is a very strong El Nino, and rather than spectacular wet this winter is looking like ordinary wet so far. There's no guarantee of the future, but as I said there's science pointing to an imminent if not already extant new pattern similar to the megadroughts of centuries past. So Cal is normally dry, but not like it's been the past four years.
Quoting 122. barbamz:

Good evening. Old Europe really gets lively weather these days. With the chain of strong storms hitting its north it more reminds you of autumn than of mid winter ...

I've spent the day under this interesting looking frontal boundary of the dear Gertrude/Tor/Marita-storm which hit the British Isles and Norway yesterday and last night, providing notable rains and winds for us which should continue tomorrow.


Current IR pic shows the next storm racing over the Atlantic (the large swath of clouds to the left) with the destination of the usual suspects:
imgsrc="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768 q90/922/MTAUv4.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">

Surface map for tomorrow with Norkys (= British "Henry") gaining force to annoy the British Isles. Notice the yellow line of a disturbance across Poland and the Baltic States in the east. I guess this line is currently causing some thunderstorms (!) in western Germany. (I wonder whether lightning and thunder may awake me later this night at Mainz near Frankfurt, doh)
There is some lighting to the north and inland, but still not very close yet. Maybe later tonight as the front approaches. What I want to know is when does a storm officially change names. At what point did Gert become Tor? Do the Brits keep calling it Gert even when it's Marita? Do the Russians call it Marita because they don't have a name for it? Or do they? I can see real problems ahead when the Baltic countries decide to prop up their budgets by selling storm names to the highest bidder. Then we could get Winter Storm Mercedes Benz...or Liqui-Moly. Good heavens! :-)
Quoting 136. Levi32:



Hey Ted! Keep in mind the extended GFS (hours 246-384) uses 12-hourly average precip, which often appears to overlap the rain/snow line behind a strong cold front, but in reality the instantaneous precip field does not. The front moves a lot in 12 hours, thus the extent of post-frontal precip is untrustworthy. None of that Florida snow is real, I'm sorry to say.
Levi should we expect videos from you about the upcoming interesting hurricane season of 2016.
Stormy weather in UK/Ireland. Last 3-4 hours W. Europe rainfall radar (split view), lots of rain, maybe some snow too in high locations around the west and southwestern Alps:

www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe Link

Impressive swell map (N. Atl.) : Link
... And wind map (N. Atl.) : Link
146. vis0

Quoting 109. hydrus:

Number one..



Maybe number 2...Looks bad..


Though n2 looks worse, maybe with the new atmosphere being full of more explosive stored energies (high ENSO + aGW)  n1 might kick up a bit more than what it "predicted" if ENSO- (1,2+3) is still near 2.0 or slightly under 2.0 (1.5 to 1.9) but nudging slightly upwards (i typed slightly as in .03) since any minuet rise in ENSO has an opportunity to be transferred as a moderate to high force being the passageways for those energies are still "open" due to the high trained ENSO values still being recorded my the southern jets "memory".


The last part means if these ENSO value where during most other years that energy would not head to far to the East (USofA) but since ENSO energy was so high + aGW,  its maintained an open corridor for lesser ENSO energies to use without losing their internal punch.

To decipher my comment please place     broken     shattered mirror against screen.


147. vis0

Quoting 128. RobertWC:

Quoting 117. nonblanche:
Melting now, but the kids had their snowcones and snow play.


Snow is beautiful. Please don’t eat it.

“As a mother who is an atmospheric physical chemist, I definitely do not suggest my young kids to eat snow in urban areas in general,” Parisa Ariya, professor of chemistry and atmospheric sciences at Canada’s McGill University who led the research, told the Huffington Post.

Ariya’s research wasn’t primarily focused on snow as a gastronomic delicacy. Instead, she and her colleagues were looking at how snow and cold interact with particles in gasoline exhaust.

They found that the snow acted like a sponge, efficiently removing chemicals like benzene, toulene, xylenes and others from the air.

Link
hmm if snow can remove those particles, can a higher in atmosphere precipitation oh lets call it snOOH be created to pick up CO2 and fall unto the neighborhoods of poor children, so they eat it and CO2 is removed...sit down House Reps big company lobbyists, NOW YOU LISTEN.

my personal reply:: see ma i told ya yellow snow was safer!
Quoting 140. spbloom:

Sure, but this is a very strong El Nino, and rather than spectacular wet this winter is looking like ordinary wet so far. There's no guarantee of the future, but as I said there's science pointing to an imminent if not already extant new pattern similar to the megadroughts of centuries past. So Cal is normally dry, but not like it's been the past four years.

It seems pretty normal this year so far. As of Jan.26, LA reports 6.54 inches against an average 6.97 for the date. San Diego is well above normal at 8.88 against 5.01. There's still plenty of season left for abnormally high rainfall. If not, then we have to conclude that something has changed in the way El Nino plays out in the west, with our friend global warming being the natural suspect.
Quoting 140. spbloom:

Sure, but this is a very strong El Nino, and rather than spectacular wet this winter is looking like ordinary wet so far. There's no guarantee of the future, but as I said there's science pointing to an imminent if not already extant new pattern similar to the megadroughts of centuries past. So Cal is normally dry, but not like it's been the past four years.


more like lower too mid strong EL nino now this EL nino is no longer vary strong


Stan (RGB, vis-vis-ir).


Landfall seems to have happened somewhere between Port Hedland and Pardoo.
--- I was slightly wrong there. :-)
"Stan crossed the coast just east of Pardoo as a category two system early on Sunday after failing to meet some expectations it might strengthen to category three." Guardian. Link
Quoting 137. sar2401:

BWHAhaha...I don't know if I'm the only one in the world like this but, when I was a kid, I loved the smell of gasoline. I'd stand near the car when Dad filled her up just so I could do a little surreptitious huffing. That was back when it was full of lead too. We used to make our own snow cones by gathering up a wagon full and drenching it in Log Cabin syrup. This was in Cleveland, not far from the mills. We weren't allowed to make snow cones if the snow turned pink...or green, depending on what grade of steel was in the Bessemer converter that day. Thank God there weren't any professors studying snow back then. My Mom would have fainted dead away if she found out that stuff was dangerous. :-)

Hey a little toxin makes you stronger. Exercises your organs. Risky? Yep.
Jan 10, 2008 is the top analog on the CIPS page for Tuesday. Models (particularly the GFS) have been wavering with regard to instability, timing and forcing, but they're not handling even the short-term forecast accurately, so a wide range of possibilities still exist. Significant severe weather, including strong tornadoes, continues to appear likely.

from gCaptain.com : Link to full story.
France, Atlantic coast : Rough seas, weather leave ghost ship still drifting towards land.

A helicopter drops a salvage team aboard the Modern Express, January 30, 2016.
Quoting 141. sar2401:

There is some lighting to the north and inland, but still not very close yet. Maybe later tonight as the front approaches. What I want to know is when does a storm officially change names. At what point did Gert become Tor? Do the Brits keep calling it Gert even when it's Marita? Do the Russians call it Marita because they don't have a name for it? Or do they? I can see real problems ahead when the Baltic countries decide to prop up their budgets by selling storm names to the highest bidder. Then we could get Winter Storm Mercedes Benz...or Liqui-Moly. Good heavens! :-)

Hey, Sar, lol. First, concerning the lightnings: latest map right now shows that the stuff should have already passed my place without any for me, as usual :-)
Confusion of named systems in Europe, especially since the Brits joined the party in 2015 by naming their most severe storms by their own: Well, I guess this problem depends on the angle of view. For someone interested in European weather who lives outside Europe, it may be confusing. For at least 99 % of the folks in Europe (my guess) it doesn't matter at all. Even in Germany, with its quite long tradition of selling names for the sake of funding science, only a small number of those names may come to public perception in case a system is a very severe or enduring one. The other ones pass unnoticed - and the more the names, the British or the Norwegians may give to their (severe) systems, even if it's the same one which may bother parts of Germany.
Of course, I have to spend some attention to all those different names in case I want to report about European weather on the whole in here. Which I just love to do. As German weather alone usually is quite uneventfull I couldn't report much that won't be a boredom for most in here. But Europe on the whole is a quite interesting part of the world, even weatherwise, with very complex weather patterns. So at one time I chose to have a look at the whole picture, and somehow since then I even became more of an "European" as I used to be until then, lol.
Biggest issue - aside from all the growing political issues - still is the variety of languages. Doh! To check out a storm which just hit - let's say - Norway is quite a challenge, if you are interested in details. Some facebook sites in English - like Severe Weather Europe, Meteo Europe or Estofex are helpful, but usually I don't like just to copy and paste what they are saying (sometimes I do with Estofex though, when a severe convective system is about to hit as they are professionals, specialized in those things). The names of certain systems are helpfull, too. It's much easier to check out a storm named "Gertrude" in the British Isles or (the same) system named "Tor" in Norway than just an unnamed low somewhere in northern Europe. And following the development of a system over days or even weeks I'm very grateful to spot certain names of persisting systems on Germany's daily surface analysis map (otherwise, as a lay person, I often wouldn't be sure, if f.e. a high that hovers over the Mediterranean for weeks, is still the same one).
So I don't mind all the naming, and I just hope you folks in the US (et al.) get some entertainment out of it :-)
Edit: Uh, as I write this: a little howling around my house in sheltered Mainz. Guess it's a last greeting of Gertrude/Tor/Marita, lol.


Europe - North America, size comparison (map isn't very exact though. Mainz is located exactly on lat 50, but a bit north than shown on this map). Good night with this!
156. vis0

Quoting 141. sar2401:

There is some lighting to the north and inland, but still not very close yet. Maybe later tonight as the front approaches. What I want to know is when does a storm officially change names. At what point did Gert become Tor? Do the Brits keep calling it Gert even when it's Marita? Do the Russians call it Marita because they don't have a name for it? Or do they? I can see real problems ahead when the Baltic countries decide to prop up their budgets by selling storm names to the highest bidder. Then we could get Winter Storm Mercedes Benz...or Liqui-Moly. Good heavens! :-)

though the question was not direct towards me, i can see when satellite GPS will have copyright titles/designs via 3D holographic projections that will place the name of each storm till the storm is over 50% into the next copyright holders territory.

Disney of course in creating the technology will have first dibbs, i can hear it now::
 HERE COMES TS Goofy (the dog-cow), oh no its Mediterranean Strong Hurricane Tinkerbell
Quoting 153. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Jan 10, 2008 is the top analog on the CIPS page for Tuesday. Models (particularly the GFS) have been wavering with regard to instability, timing and forcing, but they're not handling even the short-term forecast accurately, so a wide range of possibilities still exist. Significant severe weather, including strong tornadoes, continues to appear likely.


Out local mets are concerned about speed sheer.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 60 TO 80
KNOTS WHICH IS THE SAME AS IT LOOKED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL
THIS EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE IMPACTFUL WITH THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF THERES CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND.
SHORT TERM MODELS WILL BE WITHIN THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS EVENT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE IN THE COMING DAYS.

Walking to campus to meet up and boo and yell at Charleston for a few hours, and no need for a jacket. Pretty interesting day of weather around the globe today to say the least, I'll take what we've got here.

Quoting 137. sar2401:

BWHAhaha...I don't know if I'm the only one in the world like this but, when I was a kid, I loved the smell of gasoline. I'd stand near the car when Dad filled her up just so I could do a little surreptitious huffing. That was back when it was full of lead too. We used to make our own snow cones by gathering up a wagon full and drenching it in Log Cabin syrup. This was in Cleveland, not far from the mills. We weren't allowed to make snow cones if the snow turned pink...or green, depending on what grade of steel was in the Bessemer converter that day. Thank God there weren't any professors studying snow back then. My Mom would have fainted dead away if she found out that stuff was dangerous. :-)


Nope, you're not. Used to love the smell of gas and cars in a garage. Now the only smell of cars I like is new, which I do not have. Especially when tree frogs decide to crawl inside it and not figure out how to get back out...

Quoting 135. Dakster:



ROFLMAO.

I see the GIants and Dolphins will be at the superbowl this year... In the stands watching.

BTW - Avoid the Yellow or brown snow...


Hey now, our 2-time Super Bowl MVP is making another trip....to watch his brother try to win it.
Quoting 143. hydrus:




It's losing it...!
Atlantic had a crazy setup.
4.30pm... Link







Latest GFS..168 hours..

Flash floods strike Sydney and 50,000 homes are left without power as 'dangerous' weather lashes the east coast - while a 17-year-old girl is struck by lightning while sitting on a public toilet in Queensland

Link
Quoting 136. Levi32:



Hey Ted! Keep in mind the extended GFS (hours 246-384) uses 12-hourly average precip, which often appears to overlap the rain/snow line behind a strong cold front, but in reality the instantaneous precip field does not. The front moves a lot in 12 hours, thus the extent of post-frontal precip is untrustworthy. None of that Florida snow is real, I'm sorry to say.


Thanks Levi. My ability to read models for winter weather isn't what it is compared to tropical cyclones, so I'm bound to make a few ignorant assumptions here and there.

But still, seeing as I'm a broke USF student with no ability to travel to see snow for himself, I can only hope. :(
thanks for your continued reporting on european weather barbamz! The names aren't too confusing to me at all.
Stan's last burst? Very interesting behavior lately. It's been carrying on inland with good strength remaining, still showing some faint banding features at times.

http://www.bom.gov.au : ( BOM Link full text)
"Tropical Advice One (WA). Details of Tropical Cyclone Stan at 5:00 am AWST :
-Tropical Cyclone Stan is starting to weaken as it moves through the eastern Pilbara.
-Warning Zone:
Bidyadanga to Port Hedland (NOT including Port Hedland or South Hedland), extending to inland parts of the east Pilbara and the adjacent North Interior, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Cotton Creek and Telfer.
(...) (...) (...)
-Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour. -Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.4 degrees South 120.0 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres southeast of Pardoo.-Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour."
"">
JTWC. REMARKS:
"30/2100Z. (...) TC STAN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. (...)
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. (...)"
“Australian climate scientist Tim Flannery reviews some new, cutting-edge approaches to restraining or halting global warming.

Flannery opposes risky “geoengineering” schemes. But the new, “Third Way” approaches, he says, are different. Based on natural processes, they actually remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.”


Flannery spoke in Seattle on November 12, 2015. The audio of his complete presentation was provided by Mike McCormick, producer of Mind Over Matters, in Seattle. (Many thanks.) I have substantially condensed the talk for this radio program.

"Third Way" approaches, he says, are different
168. MahFL

Only the Daily Mail would include that detail in their headline. That item is one thing they deal in by the truck load.
Quoting 131. win1gamegiantsplease:



Benzene, xylene, toluene
You'll find us in your gasoline
Don't worry, we won't make you sneeze
Instead we'll give you lung disease



We're not exactly urban out here. :)
Australian climate scientist Tim Flannery reviews some new, cutting-edge approaches to restraining or halting global warming.

I highly recommend this clip to everyone . If you think that taking steps to change our ways will, "wreck the economy" , his thought experiment on 1915 to 1950 is pretty compelling. If you think we're all doomed his solutions list is just as compelling.
Quoting 139. sar2401:

My brother reports a surprise two inches in Reno from about four hours worth of snow that started about 0300. It got just cold enough to change the rain to snow, but the temperature is up to 38, so most of it is melting already. Tomorrow looks like a different story. The incoming storm is going to lower snow levels to the valley floors pretty quickly Sunday morning, and it looks like enough precipitation to take snow through the evening before ending. This may be the biggest storm in quite a while, with Reno looking at 3-6 inches and more like 8 inches out your way. Those totals may be on the low side if the storm focuses just a little south of the current forecast. I expect the kids can build some big snowmen by tomorrow evening.


Heh heh heh... you just made a few new friends.

It actually caught me by surprise. The dew points last night had me thinking "meh, a powdery inch or two as usual" so I left my boots next to my bed and didn't bother getting the shovels on the porch.

(I sleep in the main house when the kiddos' mom is on a three day shift weekend in Lovelock, keeps the dad getting his beauty sleep when the 21 month old gets fussy, and I can get the woodstove started early to heat water for coffee.)

Not making that mistake tonight. :) Grumpy cats too, especially the one with cerebellar hypoplasia - the other cats leap from thin spot to thin spot. Twitchy leaps and lands on his face almost every single time. I had to shovel a path to get to my boots, then I had to shovel a path when he ended up stranded under one of the hauling trailers.
Quoting 142. Gearsts:

Levi should we expect videos from you about the upcoming interesting hurricane season of 2016.


At some point, hopefully, lol.

Are you going to the AMS conference in Puerto Rico? I might see some of you PR folks there.
Quoting 174. nonblanche:



We're not exactly urban out here. :)


You're down wind from California , and China, ............................ your snow has all that lovely modern stuff in it. Trust me. As does the entire west coast snow pack Just as Vail , has a fresh load from Salt Lake City, and Wolf Creek has one from Phoenix, and San Diego.

By the way, I posted that when I saw you were in Fallon. I was on geothermal exploration rig based in Fallon. 36 years ago. I loved Fallon, hell of town.
I know about "Ragtown" , "The 40 Mile Desert", the Carson Sink, and the Salt Wells bordello .

Your library has a rare book , the Diary of Elijah Douglas Perkins. His account of crossing Nevada is one of the greatest untold stories of California Gold Rush.
He wrote nearly every day. From Marietta , Ohio to Sacramento.
Go look it up .

Insert smiley face here.
North Atlantic Ocean. US/Canada are on the left, UK/Ireland are just on the right side of the big bloody spot. Something to keep an eye on.
Wind = Beaufort Scale/12 points. Bright red to dark red/brown = between Force 9 and Force 11.

Monday 1st February 2016 9am GMT. Link
Forecast Models Last Run: Sunday 31st January 2016 12pm
___
Split Map UK/FRANCE, last 3-4 hours rain radar.

www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe, for better/larger animations : Link
Quoting 178. RobertWC:



You're down wind from California , and China, ."SNIP"


I was wondering what that smell was...
Quoting 180. Dakster:



I was wondering what that smell was...


What's your 20...
182. NNYer
Quoting 137. sar2401:

BWHAhaha...I don't know if I'm the only one in the world like this but, when I was a kid, I loved the smell of gasoline. I'd stand near the car when Dad filled her up just so I could do a little surreptitious huffing. That was back when it was full of lead too. We used to make our own snow cones by gathering up a wagon full and drenching it in Log Cabin syrup. This was in Cleveland, not far from the mills. We weren't allowed to make snow cones if the snow turned pink...or green, depending on what grade of steel was in the Bessemer converter that day. Thank God there weren't any professors studying snow back then. My Mom would have fainted dead away if she found out that stuff was dangerous. :-)


LOL Sar, you made my evening complete! I want to go back through the rest of the posts, but I don't think anything can top this!

First time this year I believe that the dryline has appeared on the weather charts.
Quoting 148. BayFog:


It seems pretty normal this year so far. As of Jan.26, LA reports 6.54 inches against an average 6.97 for the date. San Diego is well above normal at 8.88 against 5.01. There's still plenty of season left for abnormally high rainfall. If not, then we have to conclude that something has changed in the way El Nino plays out in the west, with our friend global warming being the natural suspect.


I disagree, El Nino is a short term climate shift, and because of that, it brings average changes. However, El Nino is not a direct function of winter and spring precip in Florida and California. If you look back at many El Nino years, you'll find variance with each one. This is because ultimately, weather patterns and how they evolve dictate actual outcomes of weather.

For example, next time around, we could get a weak or moderate El Nino, and maybe that one will produce more rain in Southern CA. That isn't to say I'm claiming stronger El Nino's impact CA with less heavy rain, I'm just pointing out that it's not directly proportional to rainfall amounts and coverage.
Even individual weather patterns that have a 90% forecast confidence of heavy rain, could produce much less, and a pattern not expected to produce much, could produce a lot.

Let's look at the 1997-1998 event's impacts in Florida compared to this event so far. In December 1998, rainfall was extreme across Central Florida, and somewhat heavy in other regions of the state. With this event, December was either near or all time record wettest in parts of South Florida, and above average in NW Florida while Central Florida saw one of it's driest December's on record.

In January 1998, rainfall was near or slightly below average in much of Florida. This January, most areas have had above average rainfall in the state except for far northeastern FL. Central Florida has been well above average with many places in the top 5 wettest Januaries, and much of South Florida has had a near to all time wettest January. Severe weather has also been significant in Central and Southern Florida, including a number of deaths and injuries from severe winds and tornadoes, as well as millions in damage.

This is just a brief sampling of how much El Nino event's impact's can vary, but if you want too see more examples, NOAA has a good database of all past events.
Quoting 177. Levi32:



At some point, hopefully, lol.

Are you going to the AMS conference in Puerto Rico? I might see some of you PR folks there.
I hope!



New toys.
Quoting 181. PedleyCA:



What's your 20...


South Florida... :(
Quoting 136. Levi32:



Hey Ted! Keep in mind the extended GFS (hours 246-384) uses 12-hourly average precip, which often appears to overlap the rain/snow line behind a strong cold front, but in reality the instantaneous precip field does not. The front moves a lot in 12 hours, thus the extent of post-frontal precip is untrustworthy. None of that Florida snow is real, I'm sorry to say.


Great point! Error growth rate and decreased resolution this far out also plays a pretty important part I would think. It's been my observation that the GFS brings snow into Tallahassee a handful of times every winter in it's extended forecast.
Lev32i and Jedkins01 are no fun at all.

Still snowing atop Mt. Shasta



And knocked of dreaded C of Cha on homecoming night, still in first place
Quoting 178. RobertWC:



You're down wind from California , and China, ............................ your snow has all that lovely modern stuff in it. Trust me. As does the entire west coast snow pack Just as Vail , has a fresh load from Salt Lake City, and Wolf Creek has one from Phoenix, and San Diego.

By the way, I posted that when I saw you were in Fallon. I was on geothermal exploration rig based in Fallon. 36 years ago. I loved Fallon, hell of town.
I know about "Ragtown" , "The 40 Mile Desert", the Carson Sink, and the Salt Wells bordello .

Your library has a rare book , the Diary of Elijah Douglas Perkins. His account of crossing Nevada is one of the greatest untold stories of California Gold Rush.
He wrote nearly every day. From Marietta , Ohio to Sacramento.
Go look it up .

Insert smiley face here.


Thanks! It's probably on the "Reference" stacks but I'll see if I get to check it out. :)
Quoting 166. PensacolaDoug:




This map is funny!! That is so not going to happen. Snow in half of the Florida panhandle lol!!

Eric
The NAM has been depicting a more unstable atmosphere Tuesday afternoon compared to the global models, and the 0z run is the most bullish so far. Surface-based CAPE upwards of 1250j/kg coupled with very strong wind shear could make it a very dangerous day for some.

Good night guys

Deep tropics... :)


Quoting 185. Gearsts:

I hope!



New toys.


I can already say that a storm will come close to us in august OR/AND september. Now how close? Lol, we will see...
Quoting 194. CaribBoy:

Good night guys

Deep tropics... :)





That water is so pretty.....
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NAM has been depicting a more unstable atmosphere Tuesday afternoon compared to the global models, and the 0z run is the most bullish so far. Surface-based CAPE upwards of 1250j/kg coupled with very strong wind shear could make it a very dangerous day for some.


Mother Nature is going to make a move. Hoping not much of the gulf moisture gets involved. GFS is showing a very stormy and cold pattern. Cross polar flow is coming.

A potent and quick moving storm system will traverse Southern California during the day on Sunday. The greatest impacts are expected Sunday afternoon and evening, with the most persistent precipitation arriving in Orange and western San Bernardino and Riverside Counties by early afternoon. Steadier rain will spread into San Diego County during the late afternoon and early evening. The quick moving nature of the storm will limit the potential for flooding, but heavy bursts of snowfall in the mountains will produce hazardous travel conditions. Strong winds will also occur, in the mountains and deserts sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph and local gusts to 70 mph will produce blowing dust and difficult travel conditions. Winds near the coast may also gust 35 to 50 mph in the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, watch for lose items and debris on roadways.

Quoting 195. CaribBoy:



I can already say that a storm will come close to us in august OR/AND september. Now how close? Lol, we will see...
We get on average one close TC every year.

Big kiss to the mods ,

You know I'm right, being stupid is not "fair and balanced". .

It's just being stupid.
Fer cryin' out loud. Woke up 4:00 because there was apparently a tiny person in bed with me stabbing my neck. My neck normally isn't too good, but I guess I slept wrong on it or something. On top of that, I have a low pressure system in my head and an atmospheric river coming out my nose. :-)

Models still aren't in agreement with the possible severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The NAM and ECMWF have more shear available, while the GFS depicts much weaker shear and poorer lapse rates. Timing is also still off, with the front getting to SE Alabama sometime between 6:00 Tuesday evening and 10:00 Wednesday morning. Since I have a doctor's appointment Wednesday morning that requires a 50 mile trip, I'm leaning toward a massive severe thunderstorm happening right about the time I leave. Whatever severe weather does occur looks more likely in far western AL and eastern MS. These cool season systems are really hateful. Models can show not much shear and poor lapse rates only to have that change for the worse about four hours before the storms arrive. The other option is the whole thing falls part before it gets here. Given the poor predictability of this, it would be a good idea for people in MS, AL, and TN to pay attention to forecasts and actual weather with this one.
Quoting 182. NNYer:



LOL Sar, you made my evening complete! I want to go back through the rest of the posts, but I don't think anything can top this!
I'm glad I gave you a laugh. Life was just so different 60 years ago. I had to walk to school from first grade on because there were no school busses, my Mom didn't drive, and we only had one car anyway. I had to cross several sets of railroad tracks to get to school. These were all industrial leads for the mills. They weren't protected by any kind of signals or gates, just a crossbuck. Switchers ran up and down those tracks all day, shuffling cars for the mills. My Mom spent a lot of time teaching me about railroad crossings. Her final words as we left for school were usually "Don't get hit by a train!". It was a real fear, since one of my schoolmates was hit and killed by a train.

During summer, it was the fear of polio. It was a disease with no cure, no vaccination, and struck mostly kids for no apparent reason, except it happened more in the summer. There were all kinds of people, well meaning and crooks alike, touting preventive measures for polio. My Mom's carefully considered opinion was it was caused by ice that the milk trucks used to keep milk cold on their runs. When it was hot, we'd sneak into the truck while milkman was delivering to a house and grab a handful of cubes to suck on. Man, my Mom had a conniption fit when she caught us doing that. She prided herself on the idea her boys were immune to polio because they didn't suck on milk truck ice. Little did she know...

With all these kinds of things happening in the mid-50's, my Mom probably would have thought that some benzine in the snow wasn't too bad. :-)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT IN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WORK THIS WAY
DURING THE DAY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. IT WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY WITH WINDS GETTING UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FEED COULD
SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WORK INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS UNDERWAY. SHOWERS
WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS FRONT NEARS WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVER EAST HALF MONDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS EASTERN MIDDLE AND PLATEAU MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPS. DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED THIS WAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA SO MAY NEED WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD BE EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 3 PM TO 6 PM. THE SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TWISTER OR TWO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE.
STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT. HODOGRAPHS
SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN THE WIND AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
DURING THE EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 60
KNOTS. JET DYNAMICS STILL LOOKING STRONG FOR THIS EVENT. SQUALL
LINE GETS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVES ALONG THE
PLATEAU BY 3 AM. DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COLDER
TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

What a wicked system on the GFS about 9 to 10 days out. This looks bad for FL which had 7 tornadoes in January due to this El-Nino.

Good morning and afternoon, all. Another beautiful day in west central Louisiana. We'll see what Tuesday brings. It's not much fun to try to convince 9 special ed students ages 4 to 7 to be out in the hall on their knees with their hands over their heads. Ever try to convince an autistic child to do something they don't want to do? Now try to imagine trying to convince five of them... Two weeks ago we had one during nap time. I got them to take their mats, blankets and pillow and told them we were going to go camp in the hallway.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, apricot honey oatmeal, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular or Creole coffee. Enjoy!
Quoting 206. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. Another beautiful day in west central Louisiana. We'll see what Tuesday brings. It's not much fun to try to convince 9 special ed students ages 4 to 7 to be out in the hall on their knees with their hands over their heads. Ever try to convince an autistic child to do something they don't want to do? Now try to imagine trying to convince five of them... Two weeks ago we had one during nap time. I got them to take their mats, blankets and pillow and told them we were going to go camp in the hallway.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, apricot honey oatmeal, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular or Creole coffee. Enjoy!

Greetings Linn..2 omelets, shrimpy grits, 3 apples...Will they give hash browns..?..i want taters for some reason....Big storms are coming..Hope folks are ready for the changes.
Quoting 204. StormTrackerScott:

What a wicked system on the GFS about 9 to 10 days out. This looks bad for FL which had 7 tornadoes in January due to this El-Nino.



Dear bloggers if the GFS pans out in this solution and the trough tilts negative if it continues to dive south and east, people in the Southeast and Florida keep your NOAA emergency radios with you as Florida has seen its share of tornadoes already.
A lot of energy out there..This could be quite a storm..Good amount of return from from the gulf..

Quoting 208. WeatherConvoy:


Dear bloggers if the GFS pans out in this solution and the trough tilts negative if it continues to dive south and east, people in the Southeast and Florida keep your NOAA emergency radios with you as Florida has seen its share of tornadoes already.
Will it impact S FL as bad as the last one?
Local news reported that Sanible Fl (just off Ft. Myers) received 16.2"for January (normal precipitation 1.97")
Looks like a wild ride next 2 weeks east of Mississippi Hydrus.

Quoting 209. hydrus:

A lot of energy out there..This could be quite a storm..Good amount of return from from the gulf..


Quoting 211. Sfloridacat5:

Local news reported that Sanible Fl (just off Ft. Myers) received 16.2"for January (normal precipitation 1.97")
Thats a lot...I grew up there.
Quoting 212. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like a wild ride next 2 weeks east of Mississippi Hydrus.


Greetings Surf...I am concerned..Many people will be affected..I looked at GFS and Euro this morning. A huge amount of cross flow from the polar regions headed our way. Possibility of a large and powerful storm for the eastern half..Too far out, but it does like a good amount of frigid cold headed our way.
Quoting 206. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. Another beautiful day in west central Louisiana. We'll see what Tuesday brings. It's not much fun to try to convince 9 special ed students ages 4 to 7 to be out in the hall on their knees with their hands over their heads. Ever try to convince an autistic child to do something they don't want to do? Now try to imagine trying to convince five of them... Two weeks ago we had one during nap time. I got them to take their mats, blankets and pillow and told them we were going to go camp in the hallway.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, apricot honey oatmeal, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular or Creole coffee. Enjoy!

Teaching and controlling any group of small kids isn't easy. It must be way more difficult for special ed kids, especially when you're having a severe weather event and trying to explain why they have to do something different that usual. My hat's off to you and the other teachers of America and do this kind of thing day in and day out. My teaching experience was only with allegedly full functioning adults, and they were more than enough trouble for me to handle.

Here I was, eating my Raisin Bran and thinking life was pretty good...until I read your menu. Radar Dog got to finish up the rest of the cereal. :-)
Quoting 208. WeatherConvoy:


Dear bloggers if the GFS pans out in this solution and the trough tilts negative if it continues to dive south and east, people in the Southeast and Florida keep your NOAA emergency radios with you as Florida has seen its share of tornadoes already.
thanks..we sure do need to watch this one whew.
Quoting 210. Camerooski:

Will it impact S FL as bad as the last one?
This one should have very little effect down there. Maybe some breezy winds and some showers, but the low will be way up in Canada by midday Wednesday, and the trailing front shouldn't have enough energy left to do much in south Florida.
GEOS-5 still showing probable long & severe line Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday.

Quoting 208. WeatherConvoy:


Dear bloggers if the GFS pans out in this solution and the trough tilts negative if it continues to dive south and east, people in the Southeast and Florida keep your NOAA emergency radios with you as Florida has seen its share of tornadoes already.
The GFS has the least aggressive solution to this system. It's the ECMWF and NAM that are inclined to bring higher CAPE to areas for western Alabama through MS and TN. There is almost no chance of a negatively tilted trough. The low is not deep enough and too far north to cause more than a neutral or even a slight positive tilt to this system. Other than the very small area of the Florida Panhandle highlighted by the SPC, the chance of this system bringing anything severe to the rest of Florida is very low. Other areas of the Southeast I just wrote about do have a chance for severe weather from this.
Quoting 220. LargoFl:


Almost ridiculous..Ingredients would be in place for a disastrous winter storm...its wait and see..This storm coming up next is a windy one, possible tornadoes.

Quoting 219. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 still showing probable long & severe line Wednesday evening into the early morning hours of Thursday.


It should be Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. 0300 UTC Wednesday is 10:00 pm EST Tuesday evening, with the second picture showing the front at 1:00 am EST Wednesday morning.
Partly Cloudy and Hazy - Temp 80°F - Wind E 8 mph - RH 75%



sar~ Thanks..Fixed it.

Maybe I've done enough painting this weekend?
Quoting 225. Skyepony:

sar~ Thanks..Fixed it.

Maybe I've done enough painting this weekend?


What did you paint?
Quoting 221. sar2401:

The GFS has the least aggressive solution to this system. It's the ECMWF and NAM that are inclined to bring higher CAPE to areas for western Alabama through MS and TN. There is almost no chance of a negatively tilted trough. The low is not deep enough and too far north to cause more than a neutral or even a slight positive tilt to this system. Other than the very small area of the Florida Panhandle highlighted by the SPC, the chance of this system bringing anything severe to the rest of Florida is very low. Other areas of the Southeast I just wrote about do have a chance for severe weather from this.
WeatherConvoy was talking about the next potential system 9-10 days out. Not the Tuesday storm.
Quoting 137. sar2401:

BWHAhaha...I don't know if I'm the only one in the world like this but, when I was a kid, I loved the smell of gasoline. I'd stand near the car when Dad filled her up just so I could do a little surreptitious huffing. That was back when it was full of lead too. We used to make our own snow cones by gathering up a wagon full and drenching it in Log Cabin syrup. This was in Cleveland, not far from the mills. We weren't allowed to make snow cones if the snow turned pink...or green, depending on what grade of steel was in the Bessemer converter that day. Thank God there weren't any professors studying snow back then. My Mom would have fainted dead away if she found out that stuff was dangerous. :-)


I didn't think it was a bad smell either. Little did I know or, as my detractors say "That explains a lot"


I remember eating suburban VA snow when I was 7 and thinking it was icky and even then wondering what else was in it.
It tasted kind of metallic with overtones of something else which even at 7 I thought was likely bad.
Quoting 209. hydrus:

A lot of energy out there..This could be quite a storm..Good amount of return from from the gulf..


It's already overcast with high and midlevel clouds from the subtropical jet here. The temperature is only up to 55 after an overnight low 44, so there's not a lot of return flow yet this far east. Much better return in the Mississippi Valley and north though. When I got up this morning, it was 45 here and 50 in Cleveland, so that Gulf air has made it pretty far north already. If we don't see any clearing by tomorrow it's going to be much harder to get enough heating for daytime instability by Tuesday. At least on the current schedule, the system won't reach here before dark Tuesday, and probably more like after midnight on Wednesday morning. That should also help limit instability and storm intensity in east AL. As I've said before, these winter storms are well known for turning fierce when things on paper didn't look all that bad, so we'll have to see how this one plays out.
Arctic News,
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Arctic sea ice area at record low for time of year

The biggest anomalies are in the east, starting east of the Fram Strait outflow across the Prime Meridian to the Franz Josef Land archipelago and Novaya Zemlya. I agree with the interpretation that this is due at least in part to increased meltwater from the Greenland Ice Cap forming a less dense insulating layer over the normally exposed highly saline waters originating from the Gulf Stream. One consequence of this is that the normal downward convection fueling the thermohaline circulation is being drastically reduced, but this also allows the insulated saline layer to continue further north into the North Atlantic Drift and the Norwegian current, transporting heat into the Arctic Ocean.
Quoting 228. georgevandenberghe:



I didn't think it was a bad smell either. Little did I know or, as my detractors say "That explains a lot"


I remember eating suburban VA snow when I was 7 and thinking it was icky and even then wondering what else was in it.
It tasted kind of metallic with overtones of something else which even at 7 I thought was likely bad.

Yes, I've decided I'm going to blame any current problems I have on childhood gas huffing. Can't take out the trash right now? I'm too weak from those fumes. I'll change the bed a little later, when the effects of gas inhalation wear off.

Your problem was that you didn't put any Log Cabin on the snow. Log Cabin makes everything taste good. I'm sure Cleveland snow tasted bad, but drown it in some Log Cabin and it was good stuff.
Quoting 202. sar2401:

I'm glad I gave you a laugh. Life was just so different 60 years ago. I had to walk to school from first grade on because there were no school busses, my Mom didn't drive, and we only had one car anyway. I had to cross several sets of railroad tracks to get to school. These were all industrial leads for the mills. They weren't protected by any kind of signals or gates, just a crossbuck. Switchers ran up and down those tracks all day, shuffling cars for the mills. My Mom spent a lot of time teaching me about railroad crossings. Her final words as we left for school were usually "Don't get hit by a train!". It was a real fear, since one of my schoolmates was hit and killed by a train.

During summer, it was the fear of polio. It was a disease with no cure, no vaccination, and struck mostly kids for no apparent reason, except it happened more in the summer. There were all kinds of people, well meaning and crooks alike, touting preventive measures for polio. My Mom's carefully considered opinion was it was caused by ice that the milk trucks used to keep milk cold on their runs. When it was hot, we'd sneak into the truck while milkman was delivering to a house and grab a handful of cubes to suck on. Man, my Mom had a conniption fit when she caught us doing that. She prided herself on the idea her boys were immune to polio because they didn't suck on milk truck ice. Little did she know...

With all these kinds of things happening in the mid-50's, my Mom probably would have thought that some benzine in the snow wasn't too bad. :-)


When I was 10 I read about these diseases which I was JUST young enough to have been vaccinated against. Mumps vaccine wasn't out yet and I did get Mumps in the miserable summer of 1966 along with the rest of the family except my dad and all of the family got the meningitis afterwards and that meningitis was much worse. I was REALLY grateful that vaccines came out when they did. After four strep infections in a year they also took my tonsils out.. unrelated to vaccines.



Quoting 227. Tornado6042008X:

WeatherConvoy was talking about the next potential system 9-10 days out. Not the Tuesday storm.
Ah, could be. It was the idea of keeping your weather radio with you for the next 9 or 10 days that through me off, I guess.

If this holds looks more like Pacific modified air behind next front as opposed to Arctic blast.
Quoting 227. Tornado6042008X:

WeatherConvoy was talking about the next potential system 9-10 days out. Not the Tuesday storm.

It's 9-10 days out but I've noticed it too and it's looked ugly for several GFS runs now.
Quoting 232. georgevandenberghe:



When I was 10 I read about these diseases which I was JUST young enough to have been vaccinated against. Mumps vaccine wasn't out yet and I did get Mumps in the miserable summer of 1966 along with the rest of the family except my dad and all of the family got the meningitis afterwards and that meningitis was much worse. I was REALLY grateful that vaccines came out when they did. After four strep infections in a year they also took my tonsils out.. unrelated to vaccines.




Mumps was the one childhood disease I never got even though my brother and two sisters did. I did get a course of the MMR vaccine when I was a paramedic since mumps in an adult can cause some nasty problems. I'm one of very small proportion of the population born before 1950 who was apparently never exposed to mumps enough to make a titer show positive even though my siblings had it.

I did get a shingles vaccine a couple years ago. I had chickenpox when I was a kid, and that virus never goes away. It can be reactivated in later life and show up as shingles. That's a really nasty disease, and tends to show up in older adults, particularly men, when you're sick with something else and have a lowered immune system.

We had a fair number of gays in my county, and many of them with AIDS would develop shingles. It causes some of the worst pain I've ever seen. I had a patient way out in the woods with extreme pain from shingles, along with a bunch of other medical problems. He was semiconscious and flinging himself all over the gurney due to the pain. It's dangerous to the flight and the patient if he can't be sedated before helicopter transport. His friends told he had been a heroin user, and he was a big guy, so I started with 30 mg of morphine IV to relieve the pain and sedate him. Nothing. Added another 30 mg. Nothing. Contacted the ER doc by radio and conferred with him. He gave orders for up to another 100 mg, and that's finally what it took to get rid of his pain and stop the thrashing. 160 mg of morphine IV will kill a normal person. Because his pain was so severe, as well as his opioid tolerance, it just got his respirations and blood pressure back down into the normal range. You can bet I was first in line for the vaccine when I turned 60 after seeing things like that.
Quoting 208. WeatherConvoy:


Dear bloggers if the GFS pans out in this solution and the trough tilts negative if it continues to dive south and east, people in the Southeast and Florida keep your NOAA emergency radios with you as Florida has seen its share of tornadoes already.
This is what PensacolaDoug's been going on about for days now.
I wish the NWS would type english...Its kinda like newspeak...
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED HAS THE PTNL TO BE A VERY INTERESTING...IF NOT CHALLENGING...
DAY. LOW PRES XPCTD TO TRACK FM TX TO ERN GRT LKS TUE-WED. A CD
FNT WL MV THRU THE MID ATLC...MOST LKLY DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THERE
WL BE STRONG WAA AHD OF THIS...HENCE A WARM TUE NGT WL LEAD INTO A
WARMER WED MRNG. AS IS WRITTEN IN THE HYDRO SXN BLO WE WL NEED TO
SEE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK RMNS FM TDA-TUE MELTING. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 60S WED MRNG...GFS XTND IS PROGGING L70S. BUT WHAT
MAY BE MOST IMPORTANT IS DWPTS XPCTD TO REACH MU40S...PSBLY L50S.
ALONG W/ THE RA THAT IS XPCTD TO FALL THESE TWO FACTORS COLD
COMBINE TO RELEASE A LOT OF WATER INTO STREAMS/CRKS IN A SHORT PD
OF TIME. AS I`VE WRITTEN RECENTLY THIS PUTS THOUGHTS OF THE MAJOR
FLDG OF LATE JAN `96 IN MY HEAD.
Quoting 225. Skyepony:

sar~ Thanks..Fixed it.

Maybe I've done enough painting this weekend?
It would make things so much easier if they would just add EST in parenthesis, especially when we're crossing into the next UTC day. Regardless of what time is shown, some of us will still have to convert, but it's a lot easier for me to subtract an hour than calculate what time it is when it's already showing the next day. Even though I've been using UTC for decades in ham radio, I still get confused sometimes.
Quoting 235. georgevandenberghe:


It's 9-10 days out but I've noticed it too and it's looked ugly for several GFS runs now.

There's a slight disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF at 240 hours. The GFS shows a massive 987 mb low over SE Ohio, The Euro shows a 1000 mb low in the Gulf off Louisiana and no low at all over Ohio.

I think I'll wait for a couple more runs before I get too worked up over it. :-)
Middle two weeks of February are gonna kick.
Considering this would be next Sunday..why is no one in the mid-atlantic forums talking about this? From wxrisk

THREAT #2 .. IS FEB 7. The regular or operational European model on Saturday is making this into a pretty big coastal storm that would bring heavy snow to Eastern North Carolina Eastern Virginia the Delmarva and into far Southern New Jersey and a moderate snow into interior areas of North Carolina Virginia Washington, DC Baltimore up into Philly NJ NYC and Southern New England. The euro ensembles shows some sort of Middle Atlantic east coast Low so this threat may be more serious than threat 1#
Quoting 222. hydrus:

Almost ridiculous..Ingredients would be in place for a disastrous winter storm...its wait and see..This storm coming up next is a windy one, possible tornadoes.




hydrus, would you mind updating both of those models, both affect my job, and I'm going to have to make contingency plans with both events, thanks, TM.
Quoting 228. georgevandenberghe:



I didn't think it was a bad smell either. Little did I know or, as my detractors say "That explains a lot"


I remember eating suburban VA snow when I was 7 and thinking it was icky and even then wondering what else was in it.
It tasted kind of metallic with overtones of something else which even at 7 I thought was likely bad.



I like the smell of Ethanol fuel more than regular gas, but I hate BOTH. Newer diesel has a sweeter smell to it than the older higher sulfur stuff was just nasty, greasy, and god forbid a DROP of it spilled on you. You smelled like an oil refinery for the rest of the day.

All the newer refining gets a lot of the bad stuff out and of course all the additives that ended up as carcinogens have been replaced with ones that we don't know cause cancer yet.

Quoting 222. hydrus:

Almost ridiculous..Ingredients would be in place for a disastrous winter storm...its wait and see..This storm coming up next is a windy one, possible tornadoes.


yes folks all along the east coast need to be very watchful and alert if this storm verifies gee sure looks powerful.
Quoting 240. sar2401:

There's a slight disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF at 240 hours. The GFS shows a massive 987 mb low over SE Ohio, The Euro shows a 1000 mb low in the Gulf off Louisiana and no low at all over Ohio.

I think I'll wait for a couple more runs before I get too worked up over it. :-)


sar, could you give a brother the hookup on these next two storms? I'm a EMA guy, IMT and a USAR, ESF9, guy, it really helps me on my job.
Quoting 242. washingtonian115:

Considering this would be next Sunday..why is no one in the mid-atlantic forums talking about this? From wxrisk

THREAT #2 .. IS FEB 7. The regular or operational European model on Saturday is making this into a pretty big coastal storm that would bring heavy snow to Eastern North Carolina Eastern Virginia the Delmarva and into far Southern New Jersey and a moderate snow into interior areas of North Carolina Virginia Washington, DC Baltimore up into Philly NJ NYC and Southern New England. The euro ensembles shows some sort of Middle Atlantic east coast Low so this threat may be more serious than threat 1#

Was actually about to mention it but you beet me to it ;^)
Quoting 242. washingtonian115:

Considering this would be next Sunday..why is no one in the mid-atlantic forums talking about this? From wxrisk

THREAT #2 .. IS FEB 7. The regular or operational European model on Saturday is making this into a pretty big coastal storm that would bring heavy snow to Eastern North Carolina Eastern Virginia the Delmarva and into far Southern New Jersey and a moderate snow into interior areas of North Carolina Virginia Washington, DC Baltimore up into Philly NJ NYC and Southern New England. The euro ensembles shows some sort of Middle Atlantic east coast Low so this threat may be more serious than threat 1#



We got Toilet Bowl Sunday coming up so a lot of people will be going to parties. Not good if the weather is bad.
Quoting 238. washingtonian115:

I wish the NWS would type english...Its kinda like newspeak...
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED HAS THE PTNL TO BE A VERY INTERESTING...IF NOT CHALLENGING...
DAY. LOW PRES XPCTD TO TRACK FM TX TO ERN GRT LKS TUE-WED. A CD
FNT WL MV THRU THE MID ATLC...MOST LKLY DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THERE
WL BE STRONG WAA AHD OF THIS...HENCE A WARM TUE NGT WL LEAD INTO A
WARMER WED MRNG. AS IS WRITTEN IN THE HYDRO SXN BLO WE WL NEED TO
SEE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK RMNS FM TDA-TUE MELTING. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 60S WED MRNG...GFS XTND IS PROGGING L70S. BUT WHAT
MAY BE MOST IMPORTANT IS DWPTS XPCTD TO REACH MU40S...PSBLY L50S.
ALONG W/ THE RA THAT IS XPCTD TO FALL THESE TWO FACTORS COLD
COMBINE TO RELEASE A LOT OF WATER INTO STREAMS/CRKS IN A SHORT PD
OF TIME. AS I`VE WRITTEN RECENTLY THIS PUTS THOUGHTS OF THE MAJOR
FLDG OF LATE JAN `96 IN MY HEAD.


This is far more abbreviations than the typical NWS discussion, and seems excessive. Most NWS dicussions only abbreviate heavily used meteorological words like CWA(county warning area), CAA(Cold air advection) etc.

I've been reading NWS dicussions heavily since junior high, and I've actually written a few myself as a student intern. With that said, I find this one pretty obnoxious to read, and I'd think the same for most other people, whether they work for the NWS or not.
Quoting 247. Tornado6042008X:

Was actually about to mention it but you beet me to it ;^)
Quoting 248. Dakster:



We got Toilet Bowl Sunday coming up so a lot of people will be going to parties. Not good if the weather is bad.
Went to costco yesterday and a lot of people were already there doing shopping for the super bowl.I myself was planning a little get together at my house for the game but it appears I will also have to keep a eye to the sky this upcoming weekend.
Quoting 243. trunkmonkey:



hydrus, would you mind updating both of those models, both affect my job, and I'm going to have to make contingency plans with both events, thanks, TM.

Upcoming storm..Lot of dynamics..Link



Second storm looks outrageous..

Quoting 211. Sfloridacat5:

Local news reported that Sanible Fl (just off Ft. Myers) received 16.2"for January (normal precipitation 1.97")


Gosh, did Sanibel island wash away? We might need some pictures just to make sure it's still there, lol.

The snow birds must be cranky. El Nino doesn't take kindly to the FL tourism industry.
All doom all the time is like watching HBO all year.

Its a nice day, go out and be one with it.

Good afternoon. Looks like a damaging downburst happened in Porto Alegre/Brazil Friday night (29/30 Jan). Isn't this where our Pablosyn is situated? Hope he is fine.



As usual, no reports in English available. But a lot in Portuguese (obviously still many people without power and water). Here one of the articles with more pics/videos:
As imagens do temporal com ventos de 120 km/h em Porto Alegre parecem cena de filme
HuffPost Brasil | De Luciana Sarmento, Publicado: 30/01/2016 12:58 BRST
Quoting 253. Patrap:

All doom all the time is like watching HBO all year.

Its a nice day, go out and be one with it.


Indeed..yesterday was windy and springlike. Today, a bit more wind and cloud, but nice.
Quoting 254. barbamz:

Good afternoon. Looks like a damaging downburst happened in Porto Alegre/Brazil Friday night (29/30 Jan). Isn't this where our Pablosyn is situated? Hope he is fine.



As usual, no reports in English available. But a lot in Portuguese (obviously still many people without power). Here one of the articles with more pics/videos:
As imagens do temporal com ventos de 120 km/h em Porto Alegre parecem cena de filme
HuffPost Brasil | De Luciana Sarmento, Publicado: 30/01/2016 12:58 BRST


It's a great reminder that severe thunderstorms happen in many other parts of the world. I was in Guatemala in high school on a trip and we got caught in a severe thunderstorm that was really nasty. I'd estimate winds gusted to hurricane force. I was in a fast food restaurant that's local to that region. The power went out and there was trees and power lines down afterward. The wind and lightning were absolutely insane. We also had hail, which is pretty rare in the tropics.

The point is though, it was just as bad as any severe thunderstorm we get in the U.S. during severe outbreaks, it was intense.
The real juicy stuff is still several hours away, but we've had a nice steady rain this morning.

Quoting 242. washingtonian115:

Considering this would be next Sunday..why is no one in the mid-atlantic forums talking about this? From wxrisk

THREAT #2 .. IS FEB 7. The regular or operational European model on Saturday is making this into a pretty big coastal storm that would bring heavy snow to Eastern North Carolina Eastern Virginia the Delmarva and into far Southern New Jersey and a moderate snow into interior areas of North Carolina Virginia Washington, DC Baltimore up into Philly NJ NYC and Southern New England. The euro ensembles shows some sort of Middle Atlantic east coast Low so this threat may be more serious than threat 1#

Hello wash..People are talking about a little . Accuweathers Frank Strait was saying he saw something not written in stone, but realistic with the models. This was yesterday Dr Mike Ventrice has a great graphic of it on his blog. He called the chart " eye candy " but nothing certain. I say this to you, the Arctic air forecast to come out during February will likely reach far south into the U.S. .Pattern is configured as such to bring frigid air in, and remain for a lengthy period of time.
Cutting it real close here in Acme, wa. 9.98" rain for jan, with a light drizzle…. I think we can, i think we can.
35° in the valley, snow is really low on the hills but still shut out since 3/14 of course the phantom snow that was forcast for this morning didnt happen. Well at least it will be an easy drive to Mt Vernon for International guitar night at the lincoln theater tonight. Couple feet of fresh snow up high has led to an elevated avalanche danger, a 34 yr old man just died in the mt baker backcountry, be safe.
Quoting 245. LargoFl:

yes folks all along the east coast need to be very watchful and alert if this storm verifies gee sure looks powerful.
Yes..I see phasing of the jets, especially if the sharp trof gets that far south..
Quoting 240. sar2401:

There's a slight disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF at 240 hours. The GFS shows a massive 987 mb low over SE Ohio, The Euro shows a 1000 mb low in the Gulf off Louisiana and no low at all over Ohio.

I think I'll wait for a couple more runs before I get too worked up over it. :-)

You're right, only a very slight disagreement, trivial, really, so obviously full weight should be given to the GFS. Probably should knock a few mb off the Ohio low, you know how conservative the GFS tends to be.
Quoting 256. Jedkins01:
It's a great reminder that severe thunderstorms happen in many other parts of the world. ...

Sure. BTW, in the last years Pablo posted quite a lot infos of very severe weather from his part of the world, including tornadoes. As much as I understand, they don't rule out that a tornado was attached to this latest storm in Porto Alegre.

Here another video of this event (destruction of the roof of a shopping mall):


Another video assessing damage: mostly downed trees, some structural damage.
Quoting 257. TimSoCal:

The real juicy stuff is still several hours away, but we've had a nice steady rain this morning.




Yep, light rain the last 3 hours in San Diego County Mountains.............. 0.11 thru 9:09am

Update Rainfall as of 10:09am........... 0.23
Quoting 250. washingtonian115:

Went to costco yesterday and a lot of people were already there doing shopping for the super bowl.I myself was planning a little get together at my house for the game but it appears I will also have to keep a eye to the sky this upcoming weekend.
The energy for another potential storm he mentioned for Feb 9-10, is currently over eastern China, extending into Southern Japan. I am watching it on satellite just for fun.
49 and chilly with winds starting to pick up from the S/SW. Could gust to 50-60 tonight.

Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sun, 31 Jan 10:13 am PST
Most Recent Observation: Sun, 31 Jan 10:00 am PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
31 Jan 10:00 am 49 47 92 SSW 12G26 OK

Quoting 257. TimSoCal:

The real juicy stuff is still several hours away, but we've had a nice steady rain this morning.



Started here at 9:15 and the Airport has .02(KRAL) and the Indian Hills PWS has it at .10
Quoting 262. barbamz:


Sure. BTW, in the last years Pablo posted quite a lot infos of very severe weather from his part of the world, including tornadoes. As much as I understand, they don't rule out that a tornado was attached to this latest storm in Porto Alegre.

Here another video of this event (destruction of the roof of a shopping mall):


Another video assessing damage: mostly downed trees, some structural damage.


It's interesting, looking up it's climate it's similar to Florida or the south in terms of temperatures in the summer and winter and yearly rainfall. It's in a subtropical area, which would make sense that it's prone to severe weather.
Quoting 238. washingtonian115:

I wish the NWS would type english...Its kinda like newspeak...
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED HAS THE PTNL TO BE A VERY INTERESTING...IF NOT CHALLENGING...
DAY. LOW PRES XPCTD TO TRACK FM TX TO ERN GRT LKS TUE-WED. A CD
FNT WL MV THRU THE MID ATLC...MOST LKLY DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THERE
WL BE STRONG WAA AHD OF THIS...HENCE A WARM TUE NGT WL LEAD INTO A
WARMER WED MRNG. AS IS WRITTEN IN THE HYDRO SXN BLO WE WL NEED TO
SEE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK RMNS FM TDA-TUE MELTING. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 60S WED MRNG...GFS XTND IS PROGGING L70S. BUT WHAT
MAY BE MOST IMPORTANT IS DWPTS XPCTD TO REACH MU40S...PSBLY L50S.
ALONG W/ THE RA THAT IS XPCTD TO FALL THESE TWO FACTORS COLD
COMBINE TO RELEASE A LOT OF WATER INTO STREAMS/CRKS IN A SHORT PD
OF TIME. AS I`VE WRITTEN RECENTLY THIS PUTS THOUGHTS OF THE MAJOR
FLDG OF LATE JAN `96 IN MY HEAD.


It's like they took physics to become engineers and then years down the road said, "WX IS PRTY NEAT"
Latest Euro is interesting...Tell me, does that not look like polar flow coming down from Canada.?.


Damn Joe, you taking it all (again)...
Mountains of Soo Cal getting some good upslope flow rain totals


PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
1001 AM PST SUNDAY JAN 31 2016

*STATIONS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY NOT SHOW
ACCURATE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION.

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION STORM TOTALS AS OF

_________________________1001 AM SUNDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)

1. CABLE CANYON 1.65 5516
2. CRESTLINE 1.59 5100
3. LAKE ARROWHEAD N 1.52 5180
4. CREST PARK 1.38 5624
5. RIMFOREST 1.37 5710
6. PALOMAR CRS 1.07 5387
7. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.05 6076
8. PANORAMA POINT 1.02 3887
9. LAKE ARROWHEAD NW 1.00 5450
10.LAKE ARROWHEAD WEST 0.98 5360

More reports
Link
PedleyCA, HHJoe, among others right now

Quoting 272. PedleyCA:


Damn Joe, you taking it all (again)...
Maybe the cold front will be nicer to you!
Quoting 274. win1gamegiantsplease:

PedleyCA, HHJoe, among others right now




Wish it was raining like that here, I am in a dry spot for now....
Quoting 271. hydrus:

Latest Euro is interesting...Tell me, does that not look like polar flow coming down from Canada.?.




Yep, and my quite limited knowledge tells me that the clash of cold air aloft coming down from the Arctic, with warm, moisture laden air from the GOM, produces instability, which, when combined with other factors, such as wind shear, produces tornadoes.

However, I always thought that tornadogenesis was more likely when the cold air mass crossed the Rockies, cooling it down even more. The air mass in the graphic is east of the Rockies, so does that mean less instability?
Quoting 254. barbamz:

Good afternoon. Looks like a damaging downburst happened in Porto Alegre/Brazil Friday night (29/30 Jan). Isn't this where our Pablosyn is situated? Hope he is fine.



As usual, no reports in English available. But a lot in Portuguese (obviously still many people without power and water). Here one of the articles with more pics/videos:
As imagens do temporal com ventos de 120 km/h em Porto Alegre parecem cena de filme
HuffPost Brasil | De Luciana Sarmento, Publicado: 30/01/2016 12:58 BRST


Awesome post as usual. The lightning didn't stop.
REQUEST: Informal wu inquiry

DATE: Feb 9th, daybreak CDT NOLA thru Sunset

EVENT: Mardi Gras Day 2016

Please post any and all models, discussions and other to secure a precip free Sunny day.

END OF LINE.....................

I don't really care how meteorologists communicate with each other - it's their world. But using their cryptic jargon for reports and forecasts to the public domain is rather silly - and dumb, if their goal is clear and readable communication. It is interesting how the severe limitations of the ALL-CAPS teletype format with periods as the only punctuation mark has lasted well into the 21st century and the computer/word processor era.

Just for fun, I translated the earlier example into plain English with mixed case and expanded meteorology abbreviations and acronyms, making it much more readable. That made me realize that using the teletype style all CAPS does not necessarily mean a more concise report. The report was full of unnecessary excess verbage. So I edited it again. I eliminated over 20% of the original words - and ended up with a concise, readable report.

My exercise demonstrates that the only reason for continuing to use ALL CAPS is tradition and conditioning - not efficiency and readability. That conclusion is pretty much confirmed by this article at The Atlantic website.

-------------------
WED HAS THE PTNL TO BE A VERY INTERESTING...IF NOT CHALLENGING...
DAY. LOW PRES XPCTD TO TRACK FM TX TO ERN GRT LKS TUE-WED. A CD
FNT WL MV THRU THE MID ATLC...MOST LKLY DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THERE
WL BE STRONG WAA AHD OF THIS...HENCE A WARM TUE NGT WL LEAD INTO A
WARMER WED MRNG. AS IS WRITTEN IN THE HYDRO SXN BLO WE WL NEED TO
SEE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK RMNS FM TDA-TUE MELTING. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 60S WED MRNG...GFS XTND IS PROGGING L70S. BUT WHAT
MAY BE MOST IMPORTANT IS DWPTS XPCTD TO REACH MU40S...PSBLY L50S.
ALONG W/ THE RA THAT IS XPCTD TO FALL THESE TWO FACTORS COLD
COMBINE TO RELEASE A LOT OF WATER INTO STREAMS/CRKS IN A SHORT PD
OF TIME. AS I`VE WRITTEN RECENTLY THIS PUTS THOUGHTS OF THE MAJOR
FLDG OF LATE JAN `96 IN MY HEAD.

Original - 150 words, lots of meteorlogy acronyms and abbreviations - hard to read
----------------------
Wednesday has the potential to be a very interesting...if not challenging...day. Low pressure is expected to track from Texas to the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday & Wednesday. A cold front will move through the mid-Atlantic..most likely during midday. There will be a strong warm air advection ahead of this... hence a warm Tuesday night will lead into a warmer Wednesday morning. As is written in the hydro section below, we will need to see how much of the snowpack remains from today-Tuesday melting. Temps should rise into the 60s Wednesday morning...GFS extended is forecasting low 70's. But what may be most important is dewpoints are expected to reach mid-to-upper 40's, possibly 50's. Along with the rain that is expected to fall these two factors could combine to release a lot of water into streams/creeks in a short period of time. As I've written recently, this puts thoughts of major flooding of late January 1996 in my head.

Better readability - 157 words - after editing and expanding abbreviations and acronyms.

-------------------------
Wed: Potential for an interesting and challenging day. Low pressure expected to track from Texas to eastern Great Lakes Tue. & Wed. A cold front will move through the mid-Atlantic, probably midday, preceded by strong warm air advection, a warm Tues. night leading to a warmer Wed. AM. Per hydro section below, need to watch snowpack melt through Tuesday. Temps should rise to 60s Wed. morning. GFS extended forecasting low 70's. Most importantly, dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 40's, possibly 50's are expected. Combined with likely rain amounts, these factors could combine to release a lot of water into streams/creeks in a short time. Situation similar to flooding problems in late January 1996.

Excess verbage removed and common abbreviations and numbers as numeric characters (e.g. 2 instead of two) used - 114 words - A reduction of 21% compared to the original cryptic report.
Quoting 278. yonzabam:



Yep, and my quite limited knowledge tells me that the clash of cold air aloft coming down from the Arctic, with warm, moisture laden air from the GOM, produces instability, which, when combined with other factors, such as wind shear, produces tornadoes.

However, I always thought that tornadogenesis was more likely when the cold air mass crossed the Rockies, cooling it down even more. The air mass in the graphic is east of the Rockies, so does that mean less instability?
Tornadoes a caused mostly by directional shear. Instability and convection itself usually does not cause tornadoes, but when there is a storm system that forces lift into winds that change with height , updrafts suck up horizontal winds into the thunderstorm, rotation begins, and if the energy is there, a tornado is likely.
Quoting 249. Jedkins01:



This is far more abbreviations than the typical NWS discussion, and seems excessive. Most NWS dicussions only abbreviate heavily used meteorological words like CWA(county warning area), CAA(Cold air advection) etc.

I've been reading NWS dicussions heavily since junior high, and I've actually written a few myself as a student intern. With that said, I find this one pretty obnoxious to read, and I'd think the same for most other people, whether they work for the NWS or not.
"HYDRO SXN BLO"???
I just sent a copy of that forecast discussion to Doug Young (douglas.young@noaa.gov), who's the head of the Performance and Evaluation Branch in the Operations Division of the NWS. Since he's responsible for "customer satisfaction", I asked him how many members of the public did he think would be satisfied to read that kind of public discussion. I've seen those kinds of abbreviations in aviation weather forecasts, but to use them in a public forecast discussion is way over the top on someone's part.

I was tempted to send the whole email in acronyms and abbreviations, but then I thought that might a little too snarky. :-)
Still raining............... as of 11:09am............. 0.33
Quoting 267. PedleyCA:


Started here at 9:15 and the Airport has .02(KRAL) and the Indian Hills PWS has it at .10

Looks like a low center/vort max headed into the central coast and is dumping on the southern San Joaquin Valley. Places like Bakersfield and Fresno and Hanford. Dynamics may still spin something up for the SoCal coast. At least that's what the forecasters said.
Good afternoon/evening everyone. Non-stop rain here in the last 12 hours, east of France. That's fine, we need it, though snow would definitely be better for fun and spring/summer river discharge. Temps have been, I'd say around 2-3C above the last 30 years average in the last 2 days, are forecast to shoot up to 5-8C above average the next two days. Winter is shaping to become (one of) the record highest, temperature-wise, in MeteoFrance's data.
- Steady rain event ongoing in the center-east of France (but ending soon there), and in UK as well. Gale-force winds forecast in some northern French and UK regions tomorrow, though UK/Ireland is much more in the path of the incoming Atlantic storm than France, which won't get much of the rain/winds tomorrow.
Check that:
--- Link / STORM HENRY ALERT (BRITAIN) : Storm Henry to unleash 100mph winds, torrential rain and snow in the NEXT 24 HOURS. http://www.express.co.uk, Sun, Jan 31, 2016 | UPDATED: 18:00 ---
www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe, for better/larger animations : Link

--- Snow Forecast / Western Europe / Sea Level Pressure / Animated MAPS : Link ---
Quoting 285. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Still raining............... as of 11:09am............. 0.33



YAWN
Quoting 282. Xulonn:

I don't really care how meteorologists communicate with each other - it's their world. But using their cryptic jargon for reports and forecasts to the public domain is rather silly - and dumb, if their goal is clear and readable communication. It is interesting how the severe limitations of the ALL-CAPS teletype format with periods as the only punctuation mark has lasted well into the 21st century and the computer/word processor era.

Just for fun, I translated the earlier example into plain English with mixed case and expanded meteorology abbreviations and acronyms, making it much more readable. That made me realize that using the teletype style all CAPS does not necessarily mean a more concise report. The report was full of unnecessary excess verbage. So I edited it again. I eliminated over 20% of the original words - and ended up with a concise, readable report.

My exercise demonstrates that the only reason for continuing to use ALL CAPS is tradition and conditioning - not efficiency and readability. That conclusion is pretty much confirmed by this article at The Atlantic website.

-------------------
WED HAS THE PTNL TO BE A VERY INTERESTING...IF NOT CHALLENGING...
DAY. LOW PRES XPCTD TO TRACK FM TX TO ERN GRT LKS TUE-WED. A CD
FNT WL MV THRU THE MID ATLC...MOST LKLY DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THERE
WL BE STRONG WAA AHD OF THIS...HENCE A WARM TUE NGT WL LEAD INTO A
WARMER WED MRNG. AS IS WRITTEN IN THE HYDRO SXN BLO WE WL NEED TO
SEE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK RMNS FM TDA-TUE MELTING. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 60S WED MRNG...GFS XTND IS PROGGING L70S. BUT WHAT
MAY BE MOST IMPORTANT IS DWPTS XPCTD TO REACH MU40S...PSBLY L50S.
ALONG W/ THE RA THAT IS XPCTD TO FALL THESE TWO FACTORS COLD
COMBINE TO RELEASE A LOT OF WATER INTO STREAMS/CRKS IN A SHORT PD
OF TIME. AS I`VE WRITTEN RECENTLY THIS PUTS THOUGHTS OF THE MAJOR
FLDG OF LATE JAN `96 IN MY HEAD.

Original - 150 words, lots of meteorlogy acronyms and abbreviations - hard to read
----------------------
Wednesday has the potential to be a very interesting...if not challenging...day. Low pressure is expected to track from Texas to the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday & Wednesday. A cold front will move through the mid-Atlantic..most likely during midday. There will be a strong warm air advection ahead of this... hence a warm Tuesday night will lead into a warmer Wednesday morning. As is written in the hydro section below, we will need to see how much of the snowpack remains from today-Tuesday melting. Temps should rise into the 60s Wednesday morning...GFS extended is forecasting low 70's. But what may be most important is dewpoints are expected to reach mid-to-upper 40's, possibly 50's. Along with the rain that is expected to fall these two factors could combine to release a lot of water into streams/creeks in a short period of time. As I've written recently, this puts thoughts of major flooding of late January 1996 in my head.

Better readability - 157 words - after editing and expanding abbreviations and acronyms.

-------------------------
Wed: Potential for an interesting and challenging day. Low pressure expected to track from Texas to eastern Great Lakes Tue. & Wed. A cold front will move through the mid-Atlantic, probably midday, preceded by strong warm air advection, a warm Tues. night leading to a warmer Wed. AM. Per hydro section below, need to watch snowpack melt through Tuesday. Temps should rise to 60s Wed. morning. GFS extended forecasting low 70's. Most importantly, dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 40's, possibly 50's are expected. Combined with likely rain amounts, these factors could combine to release a lot of water into streams/creeks in a short time. Situation similar to flooding problems in late January 1996.

Excess verbage removed and common abbreviations and numbers as numeric characters (e.g. 2 instead of two) used - 114 words - A reduction of 21% compared to the original cryptic report.

Excellent work. Was English your major in college? It certainly helps to have someone that can write in a concise and readable manner. Do me a favor and send a copy of your work to Doug Young at Douglas.Young@noaa..gov. He's the guy that just got a copy of the original discussion from me by email. It's better if it comes from you. You can use your real name in your email and respond to any replies. If I sent this, I'd have to reference a guy named Xulonn as the author, which might not have the desired affect. :-)
Wow the wind is really picking up here now. Howling, even.

Got a brief 2nd sprinkle then it stopped. KRAL is .04, Indian Hills is reporting .17.....as of 11:55
May be a low developing in the subtropical jet.


Quoting 278. yonzabam:



Yep, and my quite limited knowledge tells me that the clash of cold air aloft coming down from the Arctic, with warm, moisture laden air from the GOM, produces instability, which, when combined with other factors, such as wind shear, produces tornadoes.

However, I always thought that tornadogenesis was more likely when the cold air mass crossed the Rockies, cooling it down even more. The air mass in the graphic is east of the Rockies, so does that mean less instability?
In this case, the combination of strong ridge out west and the general terrain of the Rockies will act as kind of a funnel, driving cold air deep into the SE. As you know, I'm not a big fan of 10 day models, but they do serve as a window in time of what general conditions might be compared to now. The 240 hour picture does paint a grim picture down here. The tornado risk for the Southeast doesn't appear to be high from this kind of system. The return flow never really gets going, and what there is gets quickly overwhelmed by the cold air driving south. That low sitting off the coast near the Florida Big Bend is a classic location that, combined with sufficient cold air, can produce ice and snow storms all the way down to the Gulf coast.

While I'd be looking at ice and snow, Jed and the other Floridians would be facing a more critical severe weather threat. There's a fairly strong flow off the Gulf into Florida before the front arrives, and it looks like that flow could be established for at least two days beforehand. This is also a classic setup for severe storms and tornadoes in Florida, especially with a strong El Nino.

The chances of this playing out exactly as shown in the picture are extremely low. The GFS does not agree with the Euro, and one of them will end up closer to right. Even the Magic 8 Ball doesn't know which one right now. The amount of cold air, timing of arrival, strength of the low, return flow from the Gulf, amount of instability...all are critical to what weather really occurs. Still, this is one of those things you fold up, put in your back pocket, and pull out to check every so often. This may be the harbinger of some pretty dramatic developments for mid-February...or not. Like everything else in the future, time will tell.

Quoting 252. Jedkins01:



Gosh, did Sanibel island wash away? We might need some pictures just to make sure it's still there, lol.

The snow birds must be cranky. El Nino doesn't take kindly to the FL tourism industry.


Here's a picture you asked for. Don't know why the need for the all the other remarks ("Gosh, did the island wash away?)
When a location gets 16" and 1.9" is normal it's a pretty big weather story.

And yes, there was significant flooding on the Island. Some residents want something to be done to keep the areas from experiencing so much flooding when there is very heavy rainfall.


The view of Jamaica Drive, which is a part of the Tradewinds of Sanibel Subvision. The street was flooded after the rains of Jan. 16-17, and has been flooded on occasion over the course of the last decade, according to longtime residents of the subdivision.
Link
Quoting 286. BayFog:


Looks like a low center/vort max headed into the central coast and is dumping on the southern San Joaquin Valley. Places like Bakersfield and Fresno and Hanford. Dynamics may still spin something up for the SoCal coast. At least that's what the forecasters said.
Looks like a real Tonopah low is setting up. This should cycle a lot of banded precipitation along the east side of the Sierra and into central and southern California. Could be a pretty nice shot of moisture before it's done.
Quoting 294. Sfloridacat5:



Here's your pictures you asked for. Don't know why the need for the all the other remarks ("Gosh, did the island wash away?)
When a location gets 16" and 1.9" is normal it's a big deal.

A yes, there was significant flooding on the Island. Some residents want something to be done to keep the areas from experiencing so much flooding when there is very heavy rainfall.


The view of Jamaica Drive, which is a part of the Tradewinds of Sanibel Subvision. The street was flooded after the rains of Jan. 16-17, and has been flooded on occasion over the course of the last decade, according to longtime residents of the subdivision.

Yep..We lived on Captiva for years. Some may not know Captiva is the island just to the north, divided by Blind Pass, which old timers claim was made by Hurricane Donna. If a bad storm came ( like the No Name storm in 1982 ). The only road out was destroyed. So we were not able to drive out, we missed school. They averaged out our grades so we did not have to make up all that schoolwork.:)...I had to edit " not "..
A look at Blind Pass from Sanibel..




Quoting 297. hydrus:

Yep..We lived on Captiva for years. Some may not know Captiva is the island just to the north, divided by Blind Pass, which old timers claim was made by Hurricane Donna. If a bad storm came ( like the No Name storm in 1982 ). The only road out was destroyed. So we were able to drive out, we missed school. They averaged out our grades so we did not have to make up all that schoolwork.:)

A look at Blind Pass from Sanibel..







Blind Pass is where I occasionally go surfing when there's a ground swell from a hurricane or tropical storm. The picture in my Avatar is from the north side of the jetty at Blind Pass.
Quoting 296. sar2401:

Looks like a real Tonopah low is setting up. This should cycle a lot of banded precipitation along the east side of the Sierra and into central and southern California. Could be a pretty nice shot of moisture before it's done.


Tonopah? I've been there. Nice town.
Quoting 289. sar2401:
Excellent work. Was English your major in college? It certainly helps to have someone that can write in a concise and readable manner. Do me a favor and send a copy of your work to Doug Young at Douglas.Young@noaa..gov. He's the guy that just got a copy of the original discussion from me by email. It's better if it comes from you. You can use your real name in your email and respond to any replies. If I sent this, I'd have to reference a guy named Xulonn as the author, which might not have the desired affect. :-)
Will do Sar.

English was not my major, but like you, I'm a retired old-timer who lived much of his adult life in Northern California, and I was educated when they still taught things like English, history, literature, etc. to science majors. Plus, I've noticed that some of our young college students here are articulate and have good writing skills - gives me hope for the future!

David van Harn
Boquete,Panama
Quoting 248. Dakster:



We got Toilet Bowl Sunday coming up so a lot of people will be going to parties. Not good if the weather is bad.
I think the Puppy Bowl, will be more interesting. Really don't care for either team.
Day long drizzle has done it, 10.1" of rain here in acme wa for january. Down to a mere mizzle (misty drizzle) dont think it will ad up to much more. 37° a nic day for reading by the fire.
Quoting 294. Sfloridacat5:



Here's a picture you asked for. Don't know why the need for the all the other remarks ("Gosh, did the island wash away?)
When a location gets 16" and 1.9" is normal it's a pretty big weather story.

And yes, there was significant flooding on the Island. Some residents want something to be done to keep the areas from experiencing so much flooding when there is very heavy rainfall.


The view of Jamaica Drive, which is a part of the Tradewinds of Sanibel Subvision. The street was flooded after the rains of Jan. 16-17, and has been flooded on occasion over the course of the last decade, according to longtime residents of the subdivision.
Link



I think you accidentally misread my comment, I wasn't sarcastically downplaying it at all, I said the comment about Sanibel island washing away island because that is an incredible amount above average for this time of year. Not surprised to see the flooding pictures. Sorry if my comment came off that way lol.



Quoting 254. barbamz:

Good afternoon. Looks like a damaging downburst happened in Porto Alegre/Brazil Friday night (29/30 Jan). Isn't this where our Pablosyn is situated? Hope he is fine.



As usual, no reports in English available. But a lot in Portuguese (obviously still many people without power and water). Here one of the articles with more pics/videos:
As imagens do temporal com ventos de 120 km/h em Porto Alegre parecem cena de filme
HuffPost Brasil | De Luciana Sarmento, Publicado: 30/01/2016 12:58 BRST


I'm speechless...
Looks like Old Man Winter wants to remind us..He is Still here..whew second week of Feb northeast goes into the deep freeze.
Quoting 298. Sfloridacat5:



Blind Pass is where I occasionally go surfing when there's a ground swell from a hurricane or tropical storm. The picture in my Avatar is from the north side of the jetty at Blind Pass.
Quoting 298. Sfloridacat5:



Blind Pass is where I occasionally go surfing when there's a ground swell from a hurricane or tropical storm. The picture in my Avatar is from the north side of the jetty at Blind Pass.
In the early 1980,s , two surfers were pulled out to sea by the dangerous rip currents. My best friend and classmate Ronald Rossi saved one of them, but sadly, the other surfer drown. His body was not found until days later , when the incoming tide carried him into Tween Waters Marina. I lived at Twin Palms Marine, right next to the Rossi's who lived there for generations..I loved living there and do miss it.
Link / Moon was produced by a head on collision between Earth and a forming planet. TerraDaily : Los Angeles CA (SPX), Jan 29, 2016.
"The moon was formed by a violent, head-on collision between the early Earth and a "planetary embryo" called Theia approximately 100 million years after the Earth formed, UCLA geochemists and colleagues report."
Disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles next weekend?

Weather has cleared up here, so I'll share something I've become mesmerized by. A live HD stream from the International Space Station: Link
Nightly (last) hello from Europe. Current airmass pic doesn't look too exciting, no? But beware of the feature in the upper left corner:


Current NOAA surface map of the East Atlantic see below. Guess the meaning of: "RPDLY INTSFYG. DVLPG HURCN FORCE" (Xulonn may translate, lol, see post #282):

Source.

Prediction of surface conditions tomorrow noon (UTC). 955 mb for "Norkys/Henry", descending onto poor Scotland.


And this mess of red and purple is the WRF map for gales tomorrow night in the UK. Have a good ride!

Source.

BBC weather updated on Henry today:
Storm Henry steams towards Scotland

BTW, don't ask me about the meaning of the name "Norkys". Obviously some Spanish folks bought it at the Institute in Berlin. According to Wiki there is an actress in Venezuela with this name. This page about names says: Meaning of this name is unknown. Well, maybe someone else (Grothar? - Where is he, btw?) may help out, lol.
Still raining.........storm total as of 2pm PST...................... 1.16" Badaboom!
And more to come!



Moderate to locally heavy showers will continue to develop and move east-northeast ahead of the cold front this afternoon, with the frontal passage expected between 3-6pm. Snow levels will drop rapidly with the passage of the cold front, falling to around 4500 feet by tonight. Travel will be hazardous on slick roads, especially in the mountains, where chain restrictions could be needed, and snow and wind could significantly reduce visibility.

Grey: above 42 ft waves. Black : 48 ft or above. / Link
Monday 1st February 2016 12pm GMT.
Last Run: Monday 1st February 2016 12am
Long Range Last Run: Sunday 31st January 2016 6pm
___
"The Met Office also warned of some large waves which could lead to flooding on coastal roads."
UK Telegraph. Article Link (cool video from the MetOffice showing atmospheric pressure, with the low developing)
Quoting 314. HurricaneHunterJoe:

And more to come!

Lovely. Congratulations! Nothing better than a good rain after an awful drought. Hope the flooding won't be too bad, though.
Quoting 315. 999Ai2016:


Grey: above 42 ft waves. Black : 48 ft or above.
Last Run: Sunday 31st January 2016 12pm
Long Range Last Run: Sunday 31st January 2016 6am


German weather site wetteronline.de has sent its weather reporter to Scotland to catch some videos of the waves and the winds. If he is successfull, I'll provide links in here. But of course, best wishes to the British Isles, although I guess it's now business as usual for them. Germany has a little storm warning as well, but nothing too serious.
Quoting 316. barbamz:


Lovely. Congratulations! Nothing better than a good rain after an awful drought. Hope the flooding won't be too bad, though.


We will be ok unless something hellacious hits us........the mountains and trees will suck up a 2" storm total no problemo.
Cold front coming through right now, very heavy rain and wind but it is hauling azz. Don't see too much in the way of post frontal showers yet.......maybe done soon. Nice 9-10 hour storm.
Quoting 318. HurricaneHunterJoe:


We will be ok unless something hellacious hits us........the mountains and trees will suck up a 2" storm total no problemo.

Hope for the best!
Powerful storm moves into Southern California; mud damage and flooding possible
LATimes, 12.55 pm.
... In contrast to typical storms that develop far from California, this one developed unusually close -- just 500 miles west of Santa Barbara, said Swain, the Stanford climate scientist, in his blog post on the California Weather Blog.
The relatively swift development of the system “is somewhat unusual, though it tends to be more common during strong El Niño years when a strong jet stream resides over or just south of Southern California,” Swain said.
Quoting 307. LargoFl:

Looks like Old Man Winter wants to remind us..He is Still here..whew second week of Feb northeast goes into the deep freeze.

See post 293: sar2401
Quoting 318. HurricaneHunterJoe:



We will be ok unless something hellacious hits us........the mountains and trees will suck up a 2" storm total no problemo.

This is a one Sandbag storm. So far .25 at Indian Hills PWS, .08 at KRAL, very pitiful from what they said yesterday.
Some strange clouds late this afternoon



Quoting 311. TimSoCal:

Weather has cleared up here, so I'll share something I've become mesmerized by. A live HD stream from the International Space Station: Link

Waycool! Thanks for sharing!
Quoting 322. PedleyCA:


This is a one Sandbag storm. So far .25 at Indian Hills PWS, .08 at KRAL, very pitiful from what they said yesterday.


Sorry Bro.......That sux! We did again get blasted good all over my area. Even Oak Grove had 1.2" so far. Unofficially here at the homestead 1.42"

Meanwhile, in Barrow....
I just watched the ISS go over Pensacola! Thanks TIm! I couldn't have done it without your link!
329. bg888
Here around the Beverly Hills Hotel, they're reporting .83" and USC/Downtown .36"

Nothing to get too excited about, and not a drop, a drop in the forecast all the way to and thru 2/09.

You say to be patient, when -- 2017??

The reason is simple -- we just simply do NOT understand the climatological dynamics of the ridge sitting off to our southwest. In the battle between El Nino and the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, the RRR is the one who should apply for WWF membership.
Just filled out my conservation district tree sale order form. This year we are getting 10 grand fir, 20 shore pine, 10 red cedar, 10 paper birch, 10 pacific dogwood, 5 oregon ash, 5 blue elderberry, 5 douglas maples, 5 red osier dogwood, 3 madronas and a pacific rhododendron and a western azalea. Hard to believe when you pick up that little bag of sticks that one day they will trap tons of carbon. Now I just need to convince a couple of suckers to help me dig holes in my gravel lot I call a field. :-)
Storm incoming, might catch the edge of this one. Should be here about 5:15PST......
Off topic but:

The 12Z Euro and Canadian models are completely opposite of the 12Z GFS, which had backed off of shunting a winter storm across SE Texas. The Euro particularly raises an eyebrow when looking ahead to next weekend. NWS knows that a strong Canadian front will sweep across the Lone Star State on Tuesday with much chillier temperatures late next week. The Euro is particularly worrisome because it suggests two cold upper air disturbances passing over our SE Texas after the cold air is in place. Typically in early February IF (I say when) we can get a shortwave or two passing over cold air at the surface, it means trouble in the form of ice storms.

The question then becomes, should I trust the GFS or the Euro. I don't want my beloved Houston to freeze.


333. beell
Quoting 280. Patrap:

REQUEST: Informal wu inquiry

DATE: Feb 9th, daybreak CDT NOLA thru Sunset

EVENT: Mardi Gras Day 2016

Please post any and all models, discussions and other to secure a precip free Sunny day.

END OF LINE.....................




This Friday morning should be the coldest through the period with morning temps flirting with the freezing mark. Clear and cool continues with high temps in the low 50's but a slow warming trend in sight with Sunday afternoon temps breaking 60 as the winds start to veer around to the southwest in advance of the next FROPA.

A slight chance of a wave or surface trough developing over east TX on the front on Monday- that may focus some light precip-but so far, looking like a fairly dry frontal passage for Tuesday morning.

Fat Tuesday looks cool and dry-but a cloudy start. Ya'll may be stuck on temps in the breezy 50's all day. Not Chamber of Commerce Weather but eminently do-able. Anti-freeze options should be considered by some.

Caveat emptor applies
Quoting 330. plantmoretrees:

Just filled out my conservation district tree sale order form. This year we are getting 10 grand fir, 20 shore pine, 10 red cedar, 10 paper birch, 10 pacific dogwood, 5 oregon ash, 5 blue elderberry, 5 douglas maples, 5 red osier dogwood, 3 madronas and a pacific rhododendron and a western azalea. Hard to believe when you pick up that little bag of sticks that one day they will trap tons of carbon. Now I just need to convince a couple of suckers to help me dig holes in my gravel lot I call a field. :-)

That's quite a forest. Hope your madronas do ok. Around Seattle they are hurting; some kind of disease, I guess
To emphasize all the concerns I stated in my earlier post (see 3320 here are some graphics from the ECMWF that may mean Houston may face an ice/freezing rain crisis next weekend.



(note offshore low of 1016 mb)






Am I reading these graphics right? Or are they saying something other than what I think they say? A little help will be appreciated, folks.
335. pureet1948
1:44 AM GMT on February 01, 2016

To emphasize all the concerns I stated in my earlier post (see 3320 here are some graphics from the ECMWF that may mean Houston may face an ice/freezing rain crisis next weekend.


They will change a bit. This will be an Arctic outbreak, and there is concern. A lot of energy out there, now its dynamics and timing. Notice the large size of the 1047 mb high pressure coming down out of the polar region.



I,m not coming from anywhere, this crap is over a week out. I said there is a fricken Arctic outbreak coming. I believe that will happen, the rest is speculation. The cold will reach all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting 336. hydrus:

335. pureet1948
1:44 AM GMT on February 01, 2016

To emphasize all the concerns I stated in my earlier post (see 3320 here are some graphics from the ECMWF that may mean Houston may face an ice/freezing rain crisis next weekend.


They will change a bit. This will be an Arctic outbreak, and there is concern. A lot of energy out there, now its dynamics and timing. Notice the large size of the 1047 mb high pressure coming down out of the polar region.




but the GFS dominant precip type graphic shows no freezing rain on that day, hydrus. I'm afraid I don't understand where you're coming from.

Quoting 333. beell:



This Friday morning should be the coldest through the period with morning temps flirting with the freezing mark. Clear and cool continues with high temps in the low 50's but a slow warming trend in sight with Sunday afternoon temps breaking 60 as the winds start to veer around to the southwest in advance of the next FROPA.

A slight chance of a wave or surface trough developing over east TX on the front on Monday- that may focus some light precip-but so far, looking like a fairly dry frontal passage for Tuesday morning.

Fat Tuesday looks cool and dry-but a cloudy start. Ya'll may be stuck on temps in the breezy 50's all day. Not Chamber of Commerce Weather but eminently do-able. Anti-freeze options should be considered by some.

Caveat emptor applies


The Krewe here tonight thanks yas kindly.Napoleon








Quoting 336. hydrus:

335. pureet1948
1:44 AM GMT on February 01, 2016

To emphasize all the concerns I stated in my earlier post (see 3320 here are some graphics from the ECMWF that may mean Houston may face an ice/freezing rain crisis next weekend.


They will change a bit. This will be an Arctic outbreak, and there is concern. A lot of energy out there, now its dynamics and timing. Notice the large size of the 1047 mb high pressure coming down out of the polar region.



I,m not coming from anywhere, this crap is over a week out. I said there is a fricken Arctic outbreak coming. I believe that will happen, the rest is speculation. The cold will reach all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.



True, the cold will reach all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, hydrus. But the problem is, with that cold air in place, what can we expect if we get some shortwaves crossing the Houston/Galveston area, as suggested by the Euro?
Torrey Pines [Link]
Quoting 340. win1gamegiantsplease:

Torrey Pines [Link]


Was watching it today. The weather was brutal when they finally halted play.
POOF, all Gone..... 1/4" Big Whoop, Glad others did better....
Quoting 342. PedleyCA:

POOF, all Gone..... 1/4" Big Whoop, Glad others did better....



Sorry bud.


sigh

I'm really not enjoying this storm.

Wind driven fine grain snow. Dirt under the snow is wet, slushy mud. North wind means any flakes of hay I toss over for the steers will blow right in my face. With the snow.

Feh.

Is it Spring yet?

Edit

I-80 between Fernley and Wadsworth is pretty much shut down. One vehicle accident eastbound, multi-vehicle accident westbound. Alternate routes (HAHAHAHAHAHAHRight) are strongly suggested. Chain controls everywhere. Household Bro is laughing because just to get to the gas station he's supposed to be chained up.
Hang in there Fallon, only 50 Days to Spring....
Around .6" at a number of stations in Woodland Hills and a 59 mph gust 6 miles SSW of here.

Quoting 342. PedleyCA:

POOF, all Gone..... 1/4" Big Whoop, Glad others did better....



0.39" over at KVNY. Not really in the neighborhood of the 1"+ we thought was coming. Looks like the southern San Joaquin Valley and Southern Sierra at least got some nice heavy rain/snow out of it though. I count that as a win.
Quoting 346. LowerCal:

Around .6" at a number of stations in Woodland Hills and a 59 mph gust 6 miles SSW of here.



We definitely got some big gusts earlier in Canoga Park, pretty much right as the last batch of rain was coming through. Power flickered a few times, but thankfully didn't go out.
Other than snowzilla this winter has been pretty boring.No record breaking cold or anything memorable besides more warmth.When we aren't having a snow storm I'd rather be where Caribboy is now.
where's beell?

heads up to kentucky, tennessee, mississipi for tuesday afternoon, louisiana's I-20 and north of there.
351. beell
Quoting 338. Patrap:



The Krewe here tonight thanks yas kindly.Napoleon











And I enjoyed playin'.
You're Welcome
352. beell
Quoting 350. aquak9:

where's beell?

heads up to kentucky, tennessee, mississipi for tuesday afternoon, louisiana's I-20 and north of there.


beell has been slowly slippin' into wu retirement. Carry on!
353. vis0
Quoting 201. sar2401:

Fer cryin' out loud. Woke up 4:00 because there was apparently a tiny person in bed with me stabbing my neck. My neck normally isn't too good, but I guess I slept wrong on it or something. On top of that, I have a low pressure system in my head and an atmospheric river coming out my nose. :-~~~)

Models still aren't in agreement with the possible severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The NAM and ECMWF have more shear available, while the GFS depicts much weaker shear and poorer lapse rates. Timing is also still off, with the front getting to SE Alabama sometime between 6:00 Tuesday evening and 10:00 Wednesday morning. Since I have a doctor's appointment Wednesday morning that requires a 50 mile trip, I'm leaning toward a massive severe thunderstorm happening right about the time I leave. Whatever severe weather does occur looks more likely in far western AL and eastern MS. These cool season systems are really hateful. Models can show not much shear and poor lapse rates only to have that change for the worse about four hours before the storms arrive. The other option is the whole thing falls part before it gets here. Given the poor predictability of this, it would be a good idea for people in MS, AL, and TN to pay attention to forecasts and actual weather with this one.
LOOK WHAT YOU MADE ME DO! , yeeECH ITS ALL OVER MY BLOG pg .6 cmmnt#295.

On a thought that just hit me NOT related to the above.

Here a WxU factoid question, sar2401
Have there to of course your knowledge ever been a blogbyte long enough to have 2401 comments and if so did you fill it?
Wondering mainly as to days before fast changing blog topics as my signup here prior to the WxU blog cummuinity was via South American scientists that had me join as they'd post some of my ideas 9i had given them clues as to find certain ruins, they found them in turn wanted me to share my other weird thoughts), same as with me on Facebook before FB became open to the public, they'd post my crazy ideas when it was only to a few NE universities.
In those days (some still exist) some comment strips where VERY LONG never changed, one added a comment under the correctly match topic.  So a blog / comment panel created in 2006 could still be getting new comments today and be up to 3,000 or much more while a comment topic added in 2012 be rarely posted on and have only 12 comments..
Still have quick hitting showers and pretty windy. Very good rainfall totals in the mountains near me. Palomar Mountain approaching 4" Lake Henshaw approaching 3" Oak Grove shows a M on map but is at 1.56" and kinda in a rain shadow area............Unofficial total at mi casa is 1.95".

356. 882MB


ABIO10 PGTW 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/010230Z-011800ZFEB2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 43.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 43.7E, APPROXIMATELY 354 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 012207Z
GCOM 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES 15
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

grinding droughts in California are the norm
358. vis0
Quoting 184. Jedkins01:



I disagree, El Nino is a short term climate shift, and because of that, it brings average changes. However, El Nino is not a direct function of winter and spring precip in Florida and California. If you look back at many El Nino years, you'll find variance with each one. This is because ultimately, weather patterns and how they evolve dictate actual outcomes of weather.

For example, next time around, we could get a weak or moderate El Nino, and maybe that one will produce more rain in Southern CA. That isn't to say I'm claiming stronger El Nino's impact CA with less heavy rain, I'm just pointing out that it's not directly proportional to rainfall amounts and coverage.
Even individual weather patterns that have a 90% forecast confidence of heavy rain, could produce much less, and a pattern not expected to produce much, could produce a lot.

Let's look at the 1997-1998 event's impacts in Florida compared to this event so far. In December 1998, rainfall was extreme across Central Florida, and somewhat heavy in other regions of the state. With this event, December was either near or all time record wettest in parts of South Florida, and above average in NW Florida while Central Florida saw one of it's driest December's on record.

In January 1998, rainfall was near or slightly below average in much of Florida. This January, most areas have had above average rainfall in the state except for far northeastern FL. Central Florida has been well above average with many places in the top 5 wettest Januaries, and much of South Florida has had a near to all time wettest January. Severe weather has also been significant in Central and Southern Florida, including a number of deaths and injuries from severe winds and tornadoes, as well as millions in damage.

This is just a brief sampling of how much El Nino event's impact's can vary, but if you want too see more examples, NOAA has a good database of all past events.
wonder if El Nio charted activities match this logic::

.0 to .5 Jet streams carrying/powered by ENSO energies have NO SPLIT (besides the originating splitting (plumes) from ENSO AREAs) precipitation falls within a central boundary during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

.6 to .9 Jet Streams carrying/powered by ENSO energies have SPLITs, precipitation falls at latter end of split boundaries during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

Then at every WHOLE NUMBER (W#) one multiplies the strength while keeping in mind that the area to be affected depends on which after the decimal category is present.

example::

1.0 to 1.5  weak with no splitting of jet central Florida get most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

1.6 to 1.9 weak BUT splitting occurs of jet so N & S Florida gets most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.


2.0 to 2.5  moderate with no splitting of jet central Florida get most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

2.6 to 2.9 moderate BUT splitting occurs of jet so N & S Florida gets most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.


and so on.

NOW NOT SAYING VIA THOSE EXACT NUMBERS as in  ".5" as nature does not use human numbers to make decisions but nature i feel does use percentage areas/points and maybe it might via into thirds or quarters as 0.1 to 0.5   and 0.0 to 0.9 and the unused 0.0 and 0.9 are shared points where in the example USofA state used Florida, would get rain all over Florida if its W#.0 or nothing falls over all of Florida if its W#.9, as the amount of flooding or severity of drought depends on the W# while the angle of flow is dependent on the (grouped fraction) high or low grouped numbers after decimal.
Link / Powerful storm hits southern Calif., knocks out power to thousands; 1 dead, USA Today, 10:43 p.m. EST January 31, 2016 :
- The winds knocked out power to about 38,000 San Diego Gas and Electric customers, local media reported. A utility spokeswoman said some of those outages were blamed on downed power poles. All were weather related.
- About 41,000 Los Angeles Department of Water and Power customers lost electricity because of downed power lines.
-Forecasters said winds gusted to as high as 52 mph in San Diego, while the Los Angeles Times reported that winds of up to 70 mph hit Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Wind gusts topped 115 mph at Whitaker Peak, 65 mph in Malibu Canyon and 61 mph in Beverly Hills.

Link / Falling tree kills person in car, San Diego Union Tribune, Jan. 31, 2016.
Link / Fierce storm unleashes on San Diego, San Diego Union Tribune, Jan. 31, 2016.
___

Link / Here is the weather forecast for the next five years: even hotter, says UK Met Office, The Guardian, Sunday 31 January 2016.
Good night guys...

Quoting 342. PedleyCA:

POOF, all Gone..... 1/4" Big Whoop, Glad others did better....


Definitely a very odd "storm".
362. JRRP

hmm interesting !!!
Quoting 358. vis0:


wonder if El Nio charted activities match this logic::

.0 to .5 Jet streams carrying/powered by ENSO energies have NO SPLIT (besides the originating splitting (plumes) from ENSO AREAs) precipitation falls within a central boundary during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

.6 to .9 Jet Streams carrying/powered by ENSO energies have SPLITs, precipitation falls at latter end of split boundaries during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

Then at every WHOLE NUMBER one multiplies the strength while keeping in mind that the area to be affected depends on which after the decimal category is present.

example::

1.0 to 1.5  weak with no splitting of jet central Florida get most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

1.6 to 1.9 weak BUT splitting occurs of jet so N & S Florida gets most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.


2.0 to 2.5  moderate with no splitting of jet central Florida get most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.

2.6 to 2.9 moderate BUT splitting occurs of jet so N & S Florida gets most of WHATEVER AMOUNT FALLS be it lite or moderate BEGINS during a specific period after ENSO reaches its TOP peak.


and so on.

NOW NOT SAYING VIA THOSE EXACT NUMBERS as in  ".5" as nature does not use human numbers to make decisions but nature i feel does use percentage areas/points and maybe it might via into thirds or quarters as 0.1 to 0.5   and 0.6 to 0.9 and the 0.0 and 0.9 are shared points where in the example USofA state used Florida, would get rain all over Florida or nothing falls over all of Florida.

Nino's seem to be getting stronger and farther apart..jmo
Station 46012 (LLNR 325) - HALF MOON BAY - 24NM SSW of San Francisco, CA

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 36.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 20.0 ft

Pretty rough off the coast right now. Windy but mostly clear.
...Eagerly waiting for the next weekly El Nino update now.
Quoting #361. BayFog
Definitely a very odd "storm".

The WU forecast here was for .33" @Indian Hills PWS just up the hill from me so they were close as the result was .25"

Quoting 330. plantmoretrees:

Just filled out my conservation district tree sale order form. This year we are getting 10 grand fir, 20 shore pine, 10 red cedar, 10 paper birch, 10 pacific dogwood, 5 oregon ash, 5 blue elderberry, 5 douglas maples, 5 red osier dogwood, 3 madronas and a pacific rhododendron and a western azalea. Hard to believe when you pick up that little bag of sticks that one day they will trap tons of carbon. Now I just need to convince a couple of suckers to help me dig holes in my gravel lot I call a field. :-)
Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering what these 85 plants will be costing you?
Quoting 246. trunkmonkey:



sar, could you give a brother the hookup on these next two storms? I'm a EMA guy, IMT and a USAR, ESF9, guy, it really helps me on my job.
What area do you cover? The incoming storm is probably only going to have a significant severe risk in central and north MS up to western TN, and maybe eastern LA. There's a chance for some severe storms and maybe a weak tornado or two in Louisiana, all of MS, western AL, and about the western half of TN. Doesn't look like a big outbreak, and the models keep backing off on better instability and height falls. Once we see an actual squall line form we'll have a better idea of the severe potential.

There are huge differences between the GFS and Euro about the ~February 10 storm. The GFS had a doom low in Ohio with a gigantic influx of cold air and maybe snow all the way down to the Gulf. The Euro doesn't even show a low in Ohio and has a 1000 mb low off the Florida Big Bend. The 00z GFS has now moved a weaker low at the exact same time over to Connecticut. The Euro is still running, but I expect that will also some kind of shift in the location of the low(s). About the only thing they both have in common is that much colder air will be working its way to the Southeast. Everything else is going to change on upcoming model runs. It's the kind of situation I wouldn't even mention to non-weather geeks because there's a fairly high probability you'll be wrong on a 10 day forecast without a lot better model agreement.
First reading this I thought he was getting 10,000 fir trees. Then I figured out they were Grand Fir Trees. LOL
Quoting 368. rayduray2013:


Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering what these 85 plants will be costing you?



Quoting 330. plantmoretrees:

Just filled out my conservation district tree sale order form. This year we are getting 10 grand fir, 20 shore pine, 10 red cedar, 10 paper birch, 10 pacific dogwood, 5 oregon ash, 5 blue elderberry, 5 douglas maples, 5 red osier dogwood, 3 madronas and a pacific rhododendron and a western azalea. Hard to believe when you pick up that little bag of sticks that one day they will trap tons of carbon. Now I just need to convince a couple of suckers to help me dig holes in my gravel lot I call a field. :-)
Quoting 367. PedleyCA:

Quoting #361. BayFog
Definitely a very odd "storm".

The WU forecast here was for .33" @Indian Hills PWS just up the hill from me so they were close as the result was .25"
These kinds of Tonopah lows go from feast to famine depending on where the bands set up. It looks like the best banding has been further north and south than what's usually seen from one of these. San Diego and Reno have gotten some good rain and snow while the LA Basin has had some but nowhere near what it could have with the right banding. Looks like the snow just ended in Reno, and the airport has a little over 7 inches, which breaks the previous record of about 3.5 inches. Hawthorne had a full blown blizzard going on earlier although it looks like that is winding down now. Too bad the Inland Empire didn't do better with this storm, but it has added to the Sierra snowpack.
Quoting 357. robertpyoung:

grinding droughts in California are the norm
Was your first comment this pithy, or did you ramble on more for that one?
Quoting 359. 999Ai2016:

Link / Powerful storm hits southern Calif., knocks out power to thousands; 1 dead, USA Today, 10:43 p.m. EST January 31, 2016 :
A powerful Pacific storm rocked southern California on Sunday, knocking out power to thousands in San Diego and killing at least one person.
- The winds knocked out power to about 38,000 San Diego Gas and Electric customers, local media reported. A utility spokeswoman said some of those outages were blamed on downed power poles. All were weather related.
- About 41,000 Los Angeles Department of Water and Power customers lost electricity because of downed power lines.
-Forecasters said winds gusted to as high as 52 mph in San Diego, while the Los Angeles Times reported that winds of up to 70 mph hit Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Wind gusts topped 115 mph at Whitaker Peak, 65 mph in Malibu Canyon and 61 mph in Beverly Hills.

Link / Falling tree kills person in car, San Diego Union Tribune, Jan. 31, 2016.
Link / Fierce storm unleashes on San Diego, San Diego Union Tribune, Jan. 31, 2016.
___

Link / Here is the weather forecast for the next five years: even hotter, says UK Met Office, The Guardian, Sunday 31 January 2016.
Talk about unlucky. Here you are, just driving along, and a giant oak tree just falls over and hits you. That's quite a tree judging by the size while it's laying in the street. You can see how hard the wind was still blowing by the effect on the banana trees in the right hand corner of the picture. I thought it was kind of weird that Reporter Lyndsay (why do parents give a girl a name like that?) said the tree "had" been an oak. Seems like it's still an oak, even if it's a horizontal oak now.

Deepening low (coming from the upper left corner) "Henry", getting ready to pummel UK today with - at least - gale-force winds.

Link / Sandiquiz's Wunderblog about Storm Henry/Gertrude (amazing pictures from the battered coast)

- Up-to-date wave heights chart and various other met. charts (magicseaweed.com) : Link
Quoting 342. PedleyCA:

POOF, all Gone..... 1/4" Big Whoop, Glad others did better....


About an inch at my place.
Quoting 353. vis0:

Quoting 201. sar2401:
LOOK WHAT YOU MADE ME DO! , yeeECH ITS ALL OVER MY BLOG pg .6 cmmnt#295.

On a thought that just hit me NOT related to the above.

Here a WxU factoid question, sar2401
Have there to of course your knowledge ever been a blogbyte long enough to have 2401 comments and if so did you fill it?
Wondering mainly as to days before fast changing blog topics as my signup here prior to the WxU blog cummuinity was via South American scientists that had me join as they'd post some of my ideas 9i had given them clues as to find certain ruins, they found them in turn wanted me to share my other weird thoughts), same as with me on Facebook before FB became open to the public, they'd post my crazy ideas when it was only to a few NE universities.
In those days (some still exist) some comment strips where VERY LONG never changed, one added a comment under the correctly match topic.  So a blog / comment panel created in 2006 could still be getting new comments today and be up to 3,000 or much more while a comment topic added in 2012 be rarely posted on and have only 12 comments..

I read your blog, and I need to go back and read it again when my brain is functioning better. I took a little "nap" from about 6:30 to 11:30. My eyes were so sore from the drainage in them, and my nose and head are still filled with crud. It seems like this is a common cold, not flu, but it's been uncommonly bad.

I don't really pay much attention to how many post are attached to a one blog. I do remember a few times when the post count got up to near 5,000 back in 2004 or 2005 during a hurricane. Dr. Masters was the only author and only moderator. When he took his normal week's vacation, it was almost a guarantee some kind of big event would generate tons of posts before he put up a new blog. Those were the days when you pretty much had to threaten to shoot someone in the lobby of a public building to get banned. I remember a couple of times when Dr. Masters put up a new just to stop posts to the old, which had gotten completely out of control. There was a huge influx of new members due to the 2004-05 hurricanes and some of them apparently had recently been released from their local laughing academy.
Quoting 300. Xulonn:

Will do Sar.

English was not my major, but like you, I'm a retired old-timer who lived much of his adult life in Northern California, and I was educated when they still taught things like English, history, literature, etc. to science majors. Plus, I've noticed that some of our young college students here are articulate and have good writing skills - gives me hope for the future!

David van Harn
Boquete,Panama
Thanks a lot. I'll be interested to see what kind of response, if any, we get. I've already got an autogenerated "We received your email. Every one is valuable to us...yada yada yada. " I think general ed requirements have been going down in the push for more technically qualified graduates. I took extra English and History courses just because I liked both subjects but, even back in the 70's, kids were whining about why they had to "irrelevant" courses like those. It was a little different back in the days when even low level managers had a secretary. At least they could take your mish mash of words and make them into something readable. No more secretaries now, and it shows in some of the communications I've gotten from some top level managers. I understand some well-paid managers have even paid out of their own pocket for an "executive assistant" to do what a secretary used to do since they aren't capable of writing a basic paragraph with correct spelling, punctuation, and grammar. As you say, we have young people here who can write pretty well, but I suspect some of that is self-selection. They post here because they can write well. Some of their fellow students, who may be very bright about the details of their fields, just read things here and elsewhere because they just can't write well. It's a real disservice to send graduates out into the business world with these lacks of skills.
Quoting 348. TimSoCal:


We definitely got some big gusts earlier in Canoga Park, pretty much right as the last batch of rain was coming through. Power flickered a few times, but thankfully didn't go out.
Here in Woodland Hills the power went out twice, once for a few minutes and then later briefly - enough to reset some computers and clocks but not others.
Link / Australia bushfires raze ancient World Heritage-listed forests, Sydney (AFP) Jan 30, 2016.

"World Heritage-listed forests whose origins pre-date the age of the dinosaurs are being destroyed by raging Australian bushfires, with conservationists increasingly fearful they could be lost forever.
Firefighters in Tasmania -- a state south of the mainland known for its cooler temperatures -- have been battling bushfires for 18 days, with 95,000 hectares (234,750 acres) of land burnt so far, authorities said Friday (...)."

Link / Climate change fuels bushfire risk as Australia heats up, Sydney (AFP) Jan 20, 2016.
____________
- El Faro, last week :

" - The families of 10 sailors who died when the US cargo ship El Faro sank agreed Monday to receive $500,000 each in a settlement with the vessel's owner.
That sum will go toward the "pain and suffering" caused by the tragedy, and an additional, unspecified amount aims to compensate for the economic losses caused by the sailors' deaths, according to the agreement with TOTE Maritime reached in a Florida court.
The El Faro sank with its crew of 33 people aboard, mostly Americans and five Poles, when it was caught by Hurricane Joaquin near the Bahamas on October 1 (...)."
/ Link
Quoting 334. ACSeattle:


That's quite a forest. Hope your madronas do ok. Around Seattle they are hurting; some kind of disease, I guess


I hadnt heard about the madrona problem, im out and a bit isolated so perhaps with no other madronas around ill be ok. I always get pretty excited for the tree sale, it is amazing how many you can plant when you have nearly 10 acres. The first onnes we planted 13 yrs ago when we bought the place are real trees now, 20-30' tall.
Storm Rainfall Total at my place was 2.05" PUTS ME AT NEARLY 7" for January 2016! Lots of nice rain totals near me here in the mountains.


I live just south of the Hill word in Birch Hill right along the highway.
Quoting 378. LowerCal:

Here in Woodland Hills the power went out twice, once for a few minutes and then later briefly - enough to reset some computers and clocks but not others.

pod
I had like a quadruple power bump/surge and it fried my adapter/charger line in my laptop...just ordered another from ebay before my battery goes bye bye. Didn't want to order using my 4x8 ipod .
Quoting 379. 999Ai2016:

Link / Australia bushfires raze ancient World Heritage-listed forests, Sydney (AFP) Jan 30, 2016.

"World Heritage-listed forests whose origins pre-date the age of the dinosaurs are being destroyed by raging Australian bushfires, with conservationists increasingly fearful they could be lost forever.
Firefighters in Tasmania -- a state south of the mainland known for its cooler temperatures -- have been battling bushfires for 18 days, with 95,000 hectares (234,750 acres) of land burnt so far, authorities said Friday (...)."

Link / Climate change fuels bushfire risk as Australia heats up, Sydney (AFP) Jan 20, 2016.
____________
- El Faro, last week :

" - The families of 10 sailors who died when the US cargo ship El Faro sank agreed Monday to receive $500,000 each in a settlement with the vessel's owner.
That sum will go toward the "pain and suffering" caused by the tragedy, and an additional, unspecified amount aims to compensate for the economic losses caused by the sailors' deaths, according to the agreement with TOTE Maritime reached in a Florida court.
The El Faro sank with its crew of 33 people aboard, mostly Americans and five Poles, when it was caught by Hurricane Joaquin near the Bahamas on October 1 (...)."
/ Link
500 grand.....Pathetic
384. VR46L
Quoting 374. 999Ai2016:


Deepening low (coming from the upper left corner) "Henry", getting ready to pummel UK today with - at least - gale-force winds.

Link / Sandiquiz's Wunderblog about Storm Henry/Gertrude (amazing pictures from the battered coast)

- Up-to-date wave heights chart and various other met. charts (magicseaweed.com) : Link


Poor Britain and Northern Ireland ... Still they would be worse off, if they didn't have the natural buffer , that takes the brunt usually ... Only Scotland and the very South is without that buffer ...


Guess who lives 500 m from the shore, in an area that will be just as effected if not more , than Britain and North of Ireland ....



STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Southwest to west winds will reach mean speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between 110 and 130 km/h during Sunday night and through Monday. Winds will peak during Monday afternoon and evening and will be at their strongest along the coasts.

Issued:Sunday 31 January 2016 10:00

Source. "Henry" now at 945 hPa. Respect!


Updating European pressure map. Source.


British Isles: current top winds (updating). Source meteociel as well.

Hourly top gales (km/h)
Quoting 384. VR46L:


Poor Britain and Northern Ireland ... Still they would be worse off, if they didn't have the natural buffer , that takes the brunt usually ... Only Scotland and the very South is without that buffer ...

Best wishes, VR, stay safe! Nice to see you, btw.

Storm Henry arrives bringing wind speeds of up to 130km/h
Hundreds of homes without power as eighth storm of the winter arrives
Irish Times, about 3 hours ago
Quoting 369. sar2401:

What area do you cover? The incoming storm is probably only going to have a significant severe risk in central and north MS up to western TN, and maybe eastern LA. There's a chance for some severe storms and maybe a weak tornado or two in Louisiana, all of MS, western AL, and about the western half of TN. Doesn't look like a big outbreak, and the models keep backing off on better instability and height falls. Once we see an actual squall line form we'll have a better idea of the severe potential.

There are huge differences between the GFS and Euro about the ~February 10 storm. The GFS had a doom low in Ohio with a gigantic influx of cold air and maybe snow all the way down to the Gulf. The Euro doesn't even show a low in Ohio and has a 1000 mb low off the Florida Big Bend. The 00z GFS has now moved a weaker low at the exact same time over to Connecticut. The Euro is still running, but I expect that will also some kind of shift in the location of the low(s). About the only thing they both have in common is that much colder air will be working its way to the Southeast. Everything else is going to change on upcoming model runs. It's the kind of situation I wouldn't even mention to non-weather geeks because there's a fairly high probability you'll be wrong on a 10 day forecast without a lot better model agreement.

You are so kind to respond, thank you!





DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CST MON FEB 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MS...NWRN
AL...WRN TN AND KY...EXTREME SRN IL AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN IL AND INDIANA SWD TO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY FROM MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH INTENSE JET ALOFT TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE MS
AND OH VALLEYS. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN KS TUE MORNING INTO NRN
IL BY 00Z WED...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS IN/KY/TN/MS
BY EVENING...AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE SFC LOW. DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL EXTEND TO
THE OH RIVER...WITH MID 60S F ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.
STRONG LIFT WILL SUPPORT AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
A CAPPING INVERSION WILL DELAY THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
UNTIL AFTER 18-21Z AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY DEEPENS.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS IL...WRN
KY/TN AND NRN MS...GRADUALLY ADVANCING EWD TO AN OH TO SERN LA LINE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WIND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH ONE
LIMITING FACTOR BEING INSTABILITY LEVELS DUE TO A RELATIVELY COOL
SFC AIR MASS IN COMBINATION WITH LESS THAN OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY SHEARED AND TILTED.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW CELLS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINE MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 02/01/2016


Go away!
Let's take a closer look at "Henry" / Image Link / Nice shape.
Quoting 390. 999Ai2016:

Let's take a closer look at "Henry" / Image Link / Nice shape.

True.

Click the picture to get the current loop.

Edit some hours later:

Met Office Storms @metofficestorms 7 Min. Vor 7 Minuten
Satellite image of #StormHenry earlier today located north-west of the UK. http://bit.ly/Weatherwarnings
black mosquitos are thick!...e.cen.fl
What's Cookin'? Earth, Basically. But It's Not El Niño's Fault
LIveScience



© Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center 2015 was the warmest year since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year…
Attempt of a little update on the severe storm that hit Porto Alegre in Brazil in the evening of Jan 29 (see post #254 and following):

Meteorologistas nao tem consenso sobre fenomeno que atingiu Porto Alegre
Feb 1 (rough translation with some help of google): Meteorologists do not have consensus on that phenomenon which affected Porto Alegre
A professional conference, scheduled for 10 am on Monday, will discuss possible hypotheses about the thunderstorm Friday ...
One of the most probable hypothesis is that it was a Microburst, kind of high virulence gale that may detach from any point of a storm, causing damage in an area with a radius of a few kilometers. The hypothesized Metroclima System is estimated with a speed of burst over 150 km/h at the affected area, although the official measurement was 119.6 km/h.


Depois da tempestade: AO VIVO: como estao os trabalhos de recuperacao em Porto Alegre apos o temporal
LIVE: recovery work in Porto Alegre after thunderstorm
More than 25 streets blocked, 20,000 homes are still without electricity and 44 traffic lights are out of operation on Monday
Quoting 339. pureet1948:




True, the cold will reach all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, hydrus. But the problem is, with that cold air in place, what can we expect if we get some shortwaves crossing the Houston/Galveston area, as suggested by the Euro?


We can expect what Houston Climatologically sometimes gets in winter, ice and maybe snow. It will not be the end of the world.

Good Morning Bloggers. As I look at the forecast highs for today across Conus at the beginning of February, and ponder forcing issues this Winter for the Northern Hemisphere due to the strong El Nino and global warming issues, I know that we have documented global record warm years with 2015 breaking the record so far for warmest overall year in the era of modern record keeping. These records are averaged for the entire year (from Jan to Dec) and a strong prolonged summer heatwave, or relatively warm winter, is averaged into the entire year.

Just pondering how mild this Winter has been so far, overall, for Conus in spite of recent winter storm Jonas. While January has been relative warm this year for many parts of the US, and will be averaged into the numbers for 2016, just wondering if anyone keeps records for "mildest" Winters for the US. December was the warmest in Tallahassee in the modern era and January was relatively mild and even in an El Nino winter (having experienced a few here the past 15 years), we would have seen more low trajectory winter lows by February 1st and cooler temps overall for this period.

Just noting that this particular 2015-2016 winter for north Florida will be one of the mildest ones I have seen and wondering how these stats compare to other parts of the US within the yearly Jan-Dec record keeping for overall hottest years. The high for today and tomorrow here is currently forecast at 76.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Also, saw a documentary last night on Nova (2015) with regard to the Krill population in Antarctica. The study showed a decline in stocks of almost 80% in the past 30-40 years and they narrowed the cause down (by going under the ice) to the shrinking ice mass shelf adjacent to the Weddel Sea. Turns out that Krill larvae feed on plankton frozen into the underside of the ice sheets (that greenish-brown slime of the bottom of the ice) when winter comes. However, the decreasing ice due to warming issues means less of these "frozen plankton popsicles" to get the larvae through the Winter hence the declining stocks................The adult Krill is the primary food source for penguins, seals, and whales in the Antarctic...................Just sayin.
Here is the cite to the journal article upon which the Nova special was based (written by some of scientists on board the research vessel in the documentary):

Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean

Angus Atkinson1, Volker Siegel2, Evgeny Pakhomov3,4& Peter Rothery5Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and salps (mainlySalpa thompsoni) are major grazers in the Southern Ocean1,2,3,4, and krill support commercial fisheries5. Their density distributions1,%uFFFD3,%uFFFD4,%uFFFD6%uFFFDhave been described in the period 1926%u201351, while recent localized studies7,%uFFFD8,%uFFFD9,%uFFFD10suggest short-term changes. To examine spatial and temporal changes over larger scales, we have combined all available scientific net sampling data from 1926 to 2003. This database shows that the productive southwest Atlantic sector contains >50% of Southern Ocean krill stocks, but here their density has declined since the 1970s. Spatially, within their habitat, summer krill density correlates positively with chlorophyll concentrations. Temporally, within the southwest Atlantic, summer krill densities correlate positively with sea-ice extent the previous winter. Summer food and the extent of winter sea ice are thus key factors in the high krill densities observed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean. Krill need the summer phytoplankton blooms of this sector, where winters of extensive sea ice mean plentiful winter food from ice algae, promoting larval recruitment7,%uFFFD8,%uFFFD9,%uFFFD10,%uFFFD11%uFFFDand replenishing the stock. Salps, by contrast, occupy the extensive lower-productivity regions of the Southern Ocean and tolerate warmer water than krill2,%uFFFD3,%uFFFD4,%uFFFD12. As krill densities decreased last century, salps appear to have increased in the southern part of their range. These changes have had profound effects within the Southern Ocean food web10,%uFFFD13.

Current readings of a buoy of UK Met Office (K 5) northwest of Scotland, in "Henry" (Source)

Location: 59.070N 11.42W
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 14:00:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 41.7 ft
Average Wave Period: 12 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.49 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 45.7 F
Dew Point: 40.3 F
Water Temperature: 48.2 F

And the one south of it, off the northwest coast of Ireland:

Location: 55.420N 12.57W
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 14:00:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (250deg) at 44.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 46.9 ft
Average Wave Period: 14 sec
Air Temperature: 45.5 F
Water Temperature: 50.5 F
We'll see winds from the south as the front approaches here, and our high temps will fall from about 70 to 50 from Tues-Thurs. The jet stream will be well north but a few t-storms could come from this Wednesday. These things hardly ever seem to have the same energy all the way east. I guess we can thank being further from the gulf and the Appalachians for most of that.

Thirteen years ago today, space shuttle Columbia disintegrates upon re-entry.......Link

Quoting 397. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Bloggers. As I look at the forecast highs for today across Conus at the beginning of February, and ponder forcing issues this Winter for the Northern Hemisphere due to the strong El Nino and global warming issues, I know that we have documented global record warm years with 2015 breaking the record so far for warmest overall year in the era of modern record keeping. These records are averaged for the entire year (from Jan to Dec) and a strong prolonged summer heatwave, or relatively warm winter, is averaged into the entire year.

Just pondering how mild this Winter has been so far, overall, for Conus in spite of recent winter storm Jonas. While January has been relative warm this year for many parts of the US, and will be averaged into the numbers for 2016, just wondering if anyone keeps records for "mildest" Winters for the US. December was the warmest in Tallahassee in the modern era and January was relatively mild and even in an El Nino winter (having experienced a few here the past 15 years), we would have seen more low trajectory winter lows by February 1st and cooler temps overall for this period.

Just noting that this particular 2015-2016 winter for north Florida will be one of the mildest ones I have seen and wondering how these stats compare to other parts of the US within the yearly Jan-Dec record keeping for overall hottest years. The high for today and tomorrow here is currently forecast at 76.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


The January to beat in TLH is January 1974 (warmest). February 1974 was slightly cooler than normal that year BTW.

December was record smashing warm in the Mid Atlantic. January has been very modestly below normal.. not unusual at all for temps. The snowstorm of course was extreme.
Quoting 342. PedleyCA:

POOF, all Gone..... 1/4" Big Whoop, Glad others did better....

Looks like Mt. Palomar got the 'lions share' with over 3".. sorry to see overall tot's less than 1".. need a lot more on SoCal's dry and thirsty land..
Quoting 400. barbamz:

Current readings of a buoy of UK Met Office (K 5) northwest of Scotland, in "Henry" (Source)

Location: 59.070N 11.42W
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 14:00:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 41.7 ft
Average Wave Period: 12 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.49 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 45.7 F
Dew Point: 40.3 F
Water Temperature: 48.2 F

And the one south of it, off the northwest coast of Ireland:

Location: 55.420N 12.57W
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 14:00:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (250deg) at 44.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 46.9 ft
Average Wave Period: 14 sec
Air Temperature: 45.5 F
Water Temperature: 50.5 F
That barometric pressure is equivalent to a cat-3....That is one potent storm.
Quoting 404. georgevandenberghe:



The January to beat in TLH is January 1974 (warmest). February 1974 was slightly cooler than normal that year BTW.

December was record smashing warm in the Mid Atlantic. January has been very modestly below normal.. not unusual at all for temps. The snowstorm of course was extreme.
I was not in Tally in 1974; I went by this post from the Tally NWS site: illustrates the point I made below that the records are based on yearly averages. So 74 was the warmest January but the year was 2015.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1132 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2016

...2015 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR TALLAHASSEE...

2015 WAS OFFICIALLY THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT TALLAHASSEE...
SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1933 BY 0.7 DEGREES. THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE IS 67.8 DEGREES AND 2015 WAS
4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT 71.8 DEGREES.

Huge surf for Ireland, but most likely the big wave spots will be unridable due to storm conditions. Although the naggy craggy coast may offer some sheltered mysto spots that only break every 10 years or so. Surfing the Maine coast is similar to Ireland from what I can tell, but Ireland is way more consistent and much much larger.

Link

Quoting 406. hydrus:

That barometric pressure is equivalent to a cat-3....That is one potent storm.
CFS @ 186 hours...



Long range Euro Ens.

Graphs from meteociel / Link.
1) From the station that has recorded the highest winds so far, Bealach Na Ba No2 (United Kingdom, NW, alt. 763 m). Wind speeds in km/h. Top curve: gusts. Bottom curve: mean wind speed.
2) Sea level pressure for Stornoway (United Kingdom, NW, alt. 9 m).

Twitter:
@metofficestorms / 24 min ago.
- "Winds gusting over 50 mph in many parts of Scotland now. Recent gust 78 mph at Salsburgh between Glasgow and Edinburgh."
#StormHenry / Link
#StormHenry Ireland / Link
- "Over the last 24 hours, 33% of Northern Ireland's electricity came from wind!"
Quoting 408. HaoleboySurfEC:

Huge surf for Ireland, but most likely the big wave spots will be unridable due to storm conditions. Although the naggy craggy coast may offer some sheltered mysto spots that only break every 10 years or so. Surfing the Maine coast is similar to Ireland from what I can tell, but Ireland is way more consistent and much much larger.

Link


Good morning Surf..I love the ocean, and I love to surf, but this man wont be riding 47 footers anytime soon...:)
Tuesday Evening Wednesday Morning just keeps trending more severe as it approaches.



The Feb 9-10 Florida Event didn't look as crazy severe this last run on GEOS-5.
Quoting 338. Patrap:



The Krewe here tonight thanks yas kindly.Napoleon











Darn,
I thought that was Gro in uniform. Did he see action at the battle of Waterloo?
414. vis0

Archaeologists identify spear tips used in hunting a half-million years ago...Link
Euro has a snow storm for Sunday night into Monday morning.I'm surprised more mets here in the mid-atlantic are not really saying much of anything.
Quoting 403. hydrus:

Thirteen years ago today, space shuttle Columbia disintegrates upon re-entry.......Link




Quoting 416. washingtonian115:

Euro has a snow storm for Sunday night into Monday morning.I'm surprised more mets here in the mid-atlantic are not really saying much of anything.


its more then a week a way thats why once we get closer too sunday and monday i bet they will start talking about it more but in tell then watch the model runs



by the way all when are next named storm?
Quoting 414. vis0:



Greetings Vis...Could you please make the print smaller.?..Its to large for my electron microscope and its all I have...:)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA Storm Reports from yesterday had numerous ~60kph winds and trees down reports. Many completely blocked roads, others took out power and telephone lines. At one point 38,000 were reported to be without electricity. Some trees landed on houses others cars. There was 1 fatal due to the latter.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 7 NW SAN DIEGO 32.79N 117.24W
01/31/2016 SAN DIEGO CA NEWSPAPER

*** 1 FATAL ***
TIME ESTIMATED. SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN IN
PACIFIC BEACH ALONG INGRAHAM STREET. ONE
FATALITY DUE TO TREE FALLING ON VEHICLE WITH
OCCUPANTS. UNKNOWN INJURIES.

Today 8 ft waves were reports. Part of a metal roof was ripped off a church. On the back side of the storm there is reports of hail and people getting stuck in in ice and snow.
Quoting 407. weathermanwannabe:

I was not in Tally in 1974; I went by this post from the Tally NWS site: illustrates the point I made below that the records are based on yearly averages. So 74 was the warmest January but the year was 2015.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1132 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2016

...2015 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR TALLAHASSEE...

2015 WAS OFFICIALLY THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT TALLAHASSEE...
SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1933 BY 0.7 DEGREES. THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE IS 67.8 DEGREES AND 2015 WAS
4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT 71.8 DEGREES.




No argument there. Individual warm months do not necessarily make a warm year.

Incidentally March 1910 had a heat wave similar to 2012 over much of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. 1910 was an overall cold year.

Not so 2012 which to date is the DC area's warmest year of record (so far)

Quoting 349. washingtonian115:

Other than snowzilla this winter has been pretty boring.No record breaking cold or anything memorable besides more warmth.When we aren't having a snow storm I'd rather be where Caribboy is now.


December had memorable heat and a flash flood event on the 23'd
Quoting 418. washingtonian115:




This looks like an impactful rain event for DC if it verifies exactly. Bears watching
Help us Help a member here.

Portlight rallies to help a Wunderground family
By: Portlight , 6:01 PM CST on January 28, 2016


Here at Portlight, we sometimes come across individual stories of those who need the love and efforts of others.

This is one.

Not only is he a Portlight volunteer and a long-timer here at Wunderground, he is a man of great love and strength. Right now, his health is being adversely affected by mold in his home.
Quoting 405. JNFlori30A:

Looks like Mt. Palomar got the 'lions share' with over 3".. sorry to see overall tot's less than 1".. need a lot more on SoCal's dry and thirsty land..

The CoCoRaHS site just around the corner from me recorded .21"
Quoting 365. BayFog:
Station 46012 (LLNR 325) - HALF MOON BAY - 24NM SSW of San Francisco, CA

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 36.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 20.0 ft

Pretty rough off the coast right now. Windy but mostly clear.
More big surf? How are those Pacifica cliff=top apartments holding up?
Quoting 427. Patrap:

Help us Help a member here.

Portlight rallies to help a Wunderground family
By: Portlight , 6:01 PM CST on January 28, 2016


Here at Portlight, we sometimes come across individual stories of those who need the love and efforts of others.

This is one.

Not only is he a Portlight volunteer and a long-timer here at Wunderground, he is a man of great love and strength. Right now, his health is being adversely affected by mold in his home.
Your love and strength just shined through with this comment Pat..What a great gesture of kindness on your part.
Quoting 426. georgevandenberghe:



This looks like an impactful rain event for DC if it verifies exactly. Bears watching


Yeah we need the low to track farther east.
Must be one heck of a sunset in the British Isles right now as "Henry" provides the sighting of a lot of nacreus clouds (polar stratospheric clouds), as "Gertrude" did some days ago too. Many tweets with photos coming in. Guess we'll soon have a gallery with more professional photos somewhere.

Some of the tweets:
Link
Link
Link
Link

Edit: Awe, look at this one:
Successful Approach @Successful_ACC 3 Min.Vor 3 Minuten
@heartnortheast @TomCampbell I wish they all looked as beautiful as #StormHenry
Where is SPC's outlook? I opened SPC in chrome, Ctrl+F5'd it a few times, opened it in IE, and still nothing.
GOES-14 Imager 2016
1-min imagery SRSOR (Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R)


Excerpt:

To support the VORTEX-SE field experiment, and winter storms, GOES-14 Imager to provide special 1-min data in 2016. The planned dates are February 1- 25, and April 18 - May 15 allow special data set collections for GOES-R algorithm developers, research partners, forecasters, and Proving Ground participants. GOES-14 will be located near 105 degrees West.


Visible Loop
Quoting 432. barbamz:
Must be one heck of a sunset in the British Isles right now as "Henry" provides the sighting of a lot of nacreus clouds (polar stratospheric clouds)
Hola, Barb. About an hour ago, you posted a buoy barometric pressure reading off the coast of Ireland that was 28.5" (965mbar) and "falling rapidly" Do you have a link to a UK MET office website that might show recent or live buoy readings?
OMG what a bad setup for the Atlantic. CFS in Nov had a warm AMO setup for the Atlantic, looks like it fail on that.

Quoting 435. Xulonn:

Hola, Barb. About an hour ago, you posted a buoy barometric pressure reading off the coast of Ireland that was 28.5" (965mbar) and "falling rapidly" Do you have a link to a UK MET office website that might show recent or live buoy readings?

Sure, Xulonn: Source. Just click the yellow (= functioning) symbols of the buoys you like to see.

Current reading:
UK Met Office
Location: 59.070N 11.42W
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 17:00:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 38.4 ft
Average Wave Period: 12 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.33 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 46.4 F
Dew Point: 43.5 F
Water Temperature: 48.2 F
Pfew...

- Station 64045 UK (Buoy K5) :
2016/02/01 05:00 --- 969.5 hPa. 12 hours later... 2016/02/01 17:00 --- 959.5 hPa.

- Station 62105 (Buoy K4) just recorded significant wave height at 49.5 ft (at 17PM GMT)

Quoting 437. barbamz:


Sure, Xulonn: Source. Just click on the yellow (= funcioning) symbols of the buoys you like to see.
440. vis0
THIS IS A TEST...  THIS IS A TEST

Q for Grothar, maybe a practice Blob at


If this would have been an actual blob you would have seen a post only by GROTHAR, then 500 other people soon afterwards adding why it will be or wont be a TS.

please return your uprights to the down low position and relax.
(late post had crash with FFOx issues)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Droughts are nothing new in California: 926 years ago a mega-drought ended after 240 years!, and 700 years ago a 180 year drought finally stopped. Mega-droughts like these have not returned since the 1300's. Over the last 189 years California has had at least 17 less-than-mega-droughts, ranging from 1 year to 9 years, that one being the most severe, from 1928 to 1937. If the pattern since the 1300's continues we should be able to manage water resources to handle the inevitable single-digit year droughts, if we get started now. I was born during the 1943-1951 drought, and have lived through 6 more. This can be done.
443. vis0


Quoting 420. hydrus:


Greetings Vis...Could you please make the print smaller.?..Its to large for my electron microscope and its all I have...:)

Being that hydrus is such a good member i decided to program hydrus's compu'r to link to hydrus's electron microscope and used it to read my comment.

Of course i first made the prit 20x smaller as Hydrus requested...yer welcome.



View on YouTube

:-P
Quoting 443. vis0:


Being that hydrus is such a good member i decided to program hydrus's compu'r to link to hydrus's electron microscope and used it to read my comment.

Of course i first made the prit 20x smaller as Hydrus requested...yer welcome.



View on YouTube

:-P

U turn off electron microscope with fire.?..U must be rich...:)
Quoting 436. Gearsts:

OMG what a bad setup for the Atlantic. CFS in Nov had a warm AMO setup for the Atlantic, looks like it fail on that.


It's only Feb., lets give it a few months before we make a guess on what the ocean temps will be, come the heart of the hurricane season
Most of the rain that California has received has not been because of el nino. It's been kind of a no-show to this point to be honest.