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Freakish Sleet, Snow, and Cold Sting Southeast Asia

By: Bob Henson 5:21 PM GMT on January 26, 2016

At least 87 deaths have been reported from a cold wave over the last week that’s brought dangerously chilly temperatures and wintry precipitation to tropical and subtropical latitudes of Southeast Asia, as well as brutally frigid readings further north. The culprit is a southward extension of the upper-air circulation that rings the Arctic (a.k.a. the “polar vortex”), which allowed an unusually strong Siberian surface high to build southeastward (see Figure 1). In the northern part of Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region of China, the city of Genhe came close to its all-time low of –49.6°C on Thursday, January 21, when it dipped to –47.8°C (–54.0°F). At least 24 locations in China reportedly hit all-time lows between Friday and Sunday.

The greatest risk for casualties from this cold wave is at lower latitudes, where warm clothing and home heating are less common and people are less adapted to sudden chill. The 85 deaths above were reported from Taiwan, where many victims were found inside unheated structures. By Tuesday, readings in Taipei had not cracked 10°C (50°F) for a full three days, with nights dipping as low as 4°C (39°F). Two other cold-related deaths have been reported in Thailand, and that number could rise sharply.


Figure 1. An intense surface high boasted a central pressure of at least 1066 millibars at 0700Z Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016. The frigid high sent cold air cascading across the continent to the lowlands of Southeast Asia. Image credit: Thai Meteorological Department, courtesy Christopher Burt.

Snow on the South China coast
Snow is virtually unheard of across Southeast Asia, even at elevation, so the last several days have given millions of people their first-ever glimpse of the white stuff. On Sunday, the city of Ghangzhou, China (metro population 23 million) saw its first snowfall since at least 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was established. “Most [residents] had never before experienced snow,” reported the Hong Kong Standard. “People living on Beijing Road in Yuexiu ran excitedly from their homes to take pictures. Children opened their mouths to catch snowflakes.” According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this may have been Guangzhou’s first snow since 1893, when six inches fell.

Just across Kowloon Bay, temperatures in Hong Kong plummeted to 3.1°C (37.6°F) on Sunday, the coldest reading observed there since 1957. Schools were closed on Monday due to the intense chill, and social media outlets were filled with reports of snowflakes, although the Hong Kong Observatory reported that the event actually consisted of “rain with small ice pellets.” About 40 miles to the west, the island of Macau--the world’s most densely populated urban area--reported its first occurrence of snow since 1893, according to Herrera. At Macau International Airport, WU’s daily weather summary for Sunday shows several hours of ice pellets.

The big chill in Thailand
WU climate historian Christopher Burt gave us an update from northern Thailand’s largest city, Chiang Mai, located at latitude 18.8°N and an elevation of 1020 feet. The average high and low for January 26 in Chiang Mai are 87°F and 60°F. “It is the daytime cold temperatures here that are probably unprecedented, not the daily low temps,” he told me. “We went from a monthly record high of 36°C [96.8°F] on Saturday to 90°F at noon on Sunday to 55°F with rain at noon on Monday, an amazing drop in 24 hours for this neck of the woods. Today [Tuesday] it was 52°F and drizzling at noon. Our high for the day was 54°F, the coldest daily max in memory for the area. It seems virtually certain that snow must have been falling in the mountains of northern Thailand above the 1500-1800 m level [around 5000-6000 feet].” Herrera noted: “On Tuesday the max temperature was higher at Tafjord, Norway, than in Chiang Mai, Thailand…in January!”

Snow has never been confirmed to fall in Thailand, even in historical records dating back to the 1600s, according to Burt and Herrera (although hailstorms do occur). Likewise, the mountains of Laos have never officially reported snow cover. Brief flurries were reported in Laos on Tuesday down to elevations below 1000 meters (3300 feet), according to Herrera. Both Thailand and Laos might have received accumulating snow at high elevation on Tuesday--although if the snowfall were brief and limited to sparsely populated areas, it might have gone undocumented even if it did occur. Temperatures across Southeast Asia should be rising dramatically over the next couple of days, as the air mass aloft is already warming.


Figure 2. Visitors check out snowfall at Yangmungshan National Park near Taipei, Taiwan, on Monday, January 25, 2016. Image credit: Billy H.C. Kwok/Getty Images.

Further north, in mountainous Taiwan, measurable snow fell at altitudes as low as 500 meters (1600 feet), prompting many residents to head for the hills for a rare peek at a fleeting winter wonderland. Just outside Taipei, the higher elevations of Yangmingshan National Park reported 5 cm (about 2”). Snowfall was also widespread in Japan, with even the far-southern island of Amami-Oshima reporting its first flakes in 115 years. An all-time record low of 5.2°C (41.4°F) was reported on Sunday at Kume Island, Okinawa, where “sleet” was recorded for the first time in 39 years. (Note that in the United Kingdom and many other countries, the term “sleet” refers to rain mixed with snow.)

Several other countries in the region have been affected by record cold and historic snowfall, according to Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. We’ll provide an update on this historic event in a subsequent post.

Bob Henson

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1066MB! That's incredible.
Quoting 1. TimSoCal:

1066MB! That's incredible.
31.48 in...i think..
Quoting 1. TimSoCal:

1066MB! That's incredible.


That is one major high pressure region.
Yikes ont he high pressure.

Some areas getting snow where they don't always... Whereas areas that should be getting snow are not...

In the new heated concrete discussion... Wouldn't the idea be to keep it on during the winter or when snow is forecast, rather than trying to get it to melt mounds of snow? Easier to keep snow from sticking than to melt it away once it has established itself.
Now that's what I'd call a real monster high. Last time I was in Thailand was over the Christmas holidays in 2000. We spent a few days in Chiang Mai to escape the intense heat and humidity in Bangkok. While it was in the high 90's in Bangkok, Chiang Mai had much more pleasant temperatures in the mid-80's, and a lot less humidity. I can't even imagine a high of 52 there. It does very rarely get temperatures in the 30's overnight in January but, even in the coldest weather, it gets back into the high 60's or so during the day. It's the dry season there now, and the sun shines every day. Drizzle and a high in the low to mid-50's must be quite a shock to the tourists and locals, especially after just coming off record heat.
Thank You Mr. Henson. Amazing stats considering we are talking about a brutal cold wave in the mid-latitudes in Asia. All the more remarkable considering the high SST's in the Pacific due to El Nino but that warmth usually telegraphs to the East across the Pacific while the current situation you note is related to a continental polar air mass dipping down from the Arctic. Lends credence to some of the research suggesting that global warming issues would actually lead to more temperature extremes under the right conditions irrespective of the warming itself.

Here is the polar jet as of today per GFS: you can see the rather large dip into Asia allowing all that cooler polar air to dip down into the mid-latitudes and the very low position of the jet relative to those latitudes.


Quoting 2. hydrus:

31.48 in...i think..
That's what it would be. I'm trying to remember the highest pressure for any place I was physically present. I think it was about 30.70 one winter day in Leadville CO. The temperature and humidity were about minus 10. My nose bled for two weeks after I left. I don't think 31.48 would do my arthritis much good. :-)
The upside for parts of Asia is that 80% of the world (and particularly in Northern Asia) gets fresh water from snowpack.........
"Polar Vortex" attacks a different part of the Globe this year.
Quoting 9. Sfloridacat5:

"Polar Vortex" attacks a different part of the Globe this year.
Its forecast to split, one lobe for Eurasia, the other, Eastern North America.
Quoting 4. Dakster:

Yikes ont he high pressure.

Some areas getting snow where they don't always... Whereas areas that should be getting snow are not...

In the new heated concrete discussion... Wouldn't the idea be to keep it on during the winter or when snow is forecast, rather than trying to get it to melt mounds of snow? Easier to keep snow from sticking than to melt it away once it has established itself.
Hey, Dak.The conductive concrete concept has been around for about 20 years or so. There have always been three problems to work out. The first is cost, since conductive concrete would cost about $25 more a cubic yard than traditional concrete. That doesn't sound like much until you're putting down a couple of million yards for something like a large airport tarmac. Then it adds up to real money. The second is strength. We have developed concrete mixtures over the last 125 years based on known amounts of materials of known strength. Adding this kind of coal waste to concrete will change all that previous work, and many strength and stability tests will have to be run again. That's also something that will take some big money and time to do, not to mention changing the entire logistics pipeline for aggregate materials. The third is what happens to the melted water.You'd have to devise a grading plan to make sure all the melted water ran off to non-essential areas before it refroze. Using the airport example, you could probably develop a heated drainage system to handle that but, if there's an equipment failure or power outage, you may have made a known problem into a much bigger unknown problem. Developing ways to turn on and off the power automatically is simple compared these issues.
Fascinating story that the mainstream media have ignored, it seems.

My impression was that North America generally gets the short end of the "polar vortex" stick. Guess there are exceptions.
Quoting 4. Dakster:

Yikes ont he high pressure.

Some areas getting snow where they don't always... Whereas areas that should be getting snow are not...

In the new heated concrete discussion... Wouldn't the idea be to keep it on during the winter or when snow is forecast, rather than trying to get it to melt mounds of snow? Easier to keep snow from sticking than to melt it away once it has established itself.


The headline is misleading. It would be too expensive to leave it on all winter.
Quoting 4. Dakster:

Yikes ont he high pressure.

Some areas getting snow where they don't always... Whereas areas that should be getting snow are not...

In the new heated concrete discussion... Wouldn't the idea be to keep it on during the winter or when snow is forecast, rather than trying to get it to melt mounds of snow? Easier to keep snow from sticking than to melt it away once it has established itself.
What will the heated concrete do to global temps, If enough is used, imagine all the roads, buildings, parking lots and all other concrete surfaces being heated. It would be doom, and record temps worldwide, especially if the concrete was used around temp thermometers used by the NWS. The horror.

5-day prog has the Pacific jet shoving current split and associated blocking ridge eastward as it piles into the California coast.

Surface prog showing possibility of a front extending to near Hawaii by Saturday with a possible moisture plume coming into California as the front and jet sag southward. Local NWS says GFS and Canadian models have cyclogenesis occurring off the NCal coast over the weekend.
Quoting 10. hydrus:

Its forecast to split, one lobe for Eurasia, the other, Eastern North America.


"Polar Vortex" is our word here in the West. Eurasia needs their own term for old man Jack Frost. Maybe the frequently used term "Siberian Express" would be more appropriate for them.
Quoting 12. NJTom:

Fascinating story that the mainstream media have ignored, it seems.

My impression was that North America generally gets the short end of the "polar vortex" stick. Guess there are exceptions.
This is true. Things are changing quick tho. Would not be surprised if we saw a shift. Siberia is often referred to as the icebox of the northern hemisphere, and there are good reasons why.
Quoting 13. MahFL:



The headline is misleading. It would be too expensive to leave it on all winter.
Not to mention the problems of on-and-off thermal expansion and contraction of the concrete -- one major reason for the condition of concrete roadways. My guess is that the concrete roadways or taxiways would deteriorate faster, thus requiring replacement sooner. Seems a boondoggle for the concrete contractors and not many others.
Quoting 10. hydrus:

Its forecast to split, one lobe for Eurasia, the other, Eastern North America.

We saw this coming. It was Alex remains and alot of other storm's low remains that pulled together to pummel the vortex, from both sides. Just a few more days til the split peaks now..
2016, the Year the Human induced Climate Change Forcing's begin to deliver the pain.



The WPC is putting Ft. Myers in the crosshairs again for tomorrow's rain event.

Quoting 13. MahFL:



The headline is misleading. It would be too expensive to leave it on all winter.


I did the math, a 40 x 100 foot driveway would use 520 watts, which is less than what our block heaters pull (800w - 1000w). I wouldn't leave it on all winter either, just when it was going to snow. Kinda like I don't plug my truck in unless the temps are going to be in the teens or lower. Of course that could be months on end, but lately that hasn't been the case.

People spend $1200 or so a month to use the boiler with the lines inside the concrete to not shovel snow... And that uses fuel oil or natural gas most of the time. Or even worse if they have a wood or coal boiler.
Never know what will happen next... Thanks for the excellent post...


Electric cars could be recharged as they are driven


The New Zealand Transport Agency has been criticised for splurging billions of dollars on new roads without working out how to prepare them for use by electric vehicles.

There is growing interest among roading authorities overseas in building dynamic wireless charging systems into roads. These can recharge the batteries of electric vehicles as they travel above, reducing the risk of electric cars running out of power during long journeys.

But the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) said it had not considered the implications of the possible increased use of electric vehicles on its new "roads of national significance".

Old hat? An electric car is recharged on London's Embankment
Tom Pullar-Strecker
Old hat? An electric car is recharged on London's Embankment

Highways England has awarded Berkshire-based company TRL a £200,000 (NZ$465,000) contract to evaluate the feasibility of dynamic wireless charging and expects to carry out a field trial on a section of motorway within the coming year.

Denis Naberezhnykh, head of ultra low emission vehicles (ULEVs) at TRL, said the company would also help evaluate trials of the futuristic technology in France and Italy.

The British government's goal is that "almost every car and van" should be an ULEV by 2050.

Highways England said Britain aimed to be at the global forefront of ULEV technology development to "allow for mass-adoption in the decades ahead".

In response to an Official Information Act request for information on what NZTA was doing to prepare for electric vehicles on its new roads, the agency pointed to an eight-year-old Transport Ministry document that described New Zealand as a "technology taker".

NZTA said it tended to use tried and proven technologies. The Transport Ministry said New Zealand would probably follow "fast-adopting regions" such as London, Tokyo and California so there would be no need to reinvent the wheel.

Green Party energy spokesman Gareth Hughes said a lot had changed since 2007 and NZTA should be looking into dynamic wireless charging.

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In the meantime, there were practical steps it could be taking to encourage electric vehicles, such as investing in a nationwide fast-charging network that could recharge cars when stationary, he said.

"We could have developed a network of fast-charging stations across the state highway network for $10 million but there has been almost no leadership shown by the Government.

"Electric cars are a positive solution for New Zealand, which imports $8b of oil annually," he said.

There are 695 electric vehicles registered in New Zealand and 74 public charging stations, according to industry body Drive Electric. Available models include the Nissan Leaf which has a range of up to 170 kilometres when fully charged and a recommended price of $39,990.

Highways England spelt out in a document last year what it thought "success would look like" for Britain.

Looking ahead to a future electric road transport Nirvana, it said dynamic wireless charging lanes would be installed in roads when they were replaced or resurfaced, along with wireless and fibre-optic connected sensors that would provide "instant real-time data on vehicle movements".

Car owners would be confident their electric vehicles would not run of power on long journeys, greenhouse gas emissions would fall, and drivers would be automatically billed over the internet for the power their vehicles consumed, it said.

Highways England also hypothesised that it could reduce road accidents by denying vehicles access to wireless charging if they were travelling over a 60km speed limit.

Naberezhnykh said dynamic wireless charging systems had been used to power buses on stretches of road in South Korea, though he described these as trials.

While it was probably too soon to be "future-proofing" new roads, some road construction techniques risked ruling out the option of installing dynamic wireless charging, he said.

"One thing that seems clear at the moment is that roads that utilise iron in their construction, such as iron dowel bars or reinforcements in concrete roads, are unlikely to be compatible with dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT)."

NZTA spokesman Andy Knackstedt said neither technique had been used in New Zealand since the 1960s, though they weren't outlawed.

"The emphasis now is on understanding how DWPT roads could be standardised and constructed in an economically viable way, Naberezhnykh said. "Once this is known then preparations and future-proofing can begin."

Naberezhnykh said wireless charging would be more commercially viable on roads that carried a lot of a traffic, but the environmental benefits would be maximised in countries that were able to generate a high proportion of electricity from renewable sources, as does New Zealand.

The technology was unlikely to completely do away with the need to charge electric vehicles when stationary, though it could become the main way of powering some vehicles, he said.

It would be important systems were designed to meet recommendations for human exposure to electromagnetic fields, he said.

I see the hokey Hydra is being used for climate again this year LOL
Quoting 22. Patrap:

2016, the Year the Human induced Climate Change Forcing's begin to deliver the pain.




Lol.....Yes, yes...Vast regions, well steeped with humanity, will suffer from- D.T.P Syndrome....I no scared, and will help when and where i,m needed...Damm itt....

Quoting 24. Dakster:



I did the math, a 40 x 100 foot driveway would use 520 watts, which is less than what our block heaters pull (800w - 1000w). I wouldn't leave it on all winter either, just when it was going to snow. Kinda like I don't plug my truck in unless the temps are going to be in the teens or lower. Of course that could be months on end, but lately that hasn't been the case.

People spend $1200 or so a month to use the boiler with the lines inside the concrete to not shovel snow... And that uses fuel oil or natural gas most of the time. Or even worse if they have a wood or coal boiler.
I could be wrong but didn't the article say 13 watts per Sq Ft. if that is the case your 40 x 100 foot drive will have 4000 Sq Ft x 13 watts equals 52000 watts. Does not seem cost effective to me
Quoting 21. Skyepony:


We saw this coming. It was Alex remains and alot of other storm's low remains that pulled together to pummel the vortex, from both sides. Just a few more days til the split peaks now..

Pummel the Vortex...Both stratospheric and tropospheric.....Fatigued and beaten into compliance by full blown January Hurricane..! Time for more weather movies..Sharknadoes, and Day after Tomorrows....Attack of the Killer P.V.'s..!....:)
WOW folks these short range meso-scale models are extremely impressive and this is just thru 48hrs as this event looks to last just past 60hrs. If this verifies this event could rival the November 2014 heavy rain event across C FL. That's over 8" of rain over Tampa!

Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:

The WPC is putting Ft. Myers in the crosshairs again for tomorrow's rain event.




That's strange as the Euro and all these meso scale models focus this across Tampa. Going to be interesting to see where this band sets up overnight. If these WRF models and HRRR models pan out then there could be significant rainfall totals of over 6" in areas from Tampa to Cape Canaveral.
Quoting 12. NJTom:

Fascinating story that the mainstream media have ignored, it seems.

My impression was that North America generally gets the short end of the "polar vortex" stick. Guess there are exceptions.


Define "short end". In general North (and South) America get more equatorward transport of arctic air masses than anywhere else in the world because of our north south mountain ranges. Northern Brazil is the only place in the world where cold fronts cross the equator (from the south in austral winter). the cold air is dammed east of the Andes and drives north, an extreme example of what happens in the U.S. great plains, and, to a much lesser extent, with cold air damming on the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
Quoting 29. nymore:


I could be wrong but didn't the article say 13 watts per Sq Ft. if that is the case your 40 x 100 foot drive will have 4000 Sq Ft x 13 watts equals 52000 watts. Does not seem cost effective to me


I did .13 not 13 for some odd reason... That would not be cost effective...
Quoting 22. Patrap:

2016, the Year the Human induced Climate Change Forcing's begin to deliver the pain.






I hope my fellow Americans will join me in fervently supporting a traditional climate -- not this new insurgent climate that is sure to cause systemic problems and leave our prosperity in ruin.

- What politicians should say.
There is hardly a colder map for the U.S. in existence...

Quoting 33. georgevandenberghe:



Define "short end". In general North (and South) America get more equatorward transport of arctic air masses than anywhere else in the world because of our north south mountain ranges. Northern Brazil is the only place in the world where cold fronts cross the equator (from the south in austral winter). the cold air is dammed east of the Andes and drives north, an extreme example of what happens in the U.S. great plains, and, to a much lesser extent, with cold air damming on the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
I think he meant the lionshare of the P.V. ends up over Asia when it splits, not the U.S....
And the studies keep coming: we need to upgrade the National infrastructure in the US.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/better-pow er-lines-would-help-us-supercharge-renewable-energ y-study-suggests


Analysts have long argued that nations aiming to use wind and solar power to curb emissions from fossil fuel burning would first have to invest heavily in new technologies to store electricity produced by these intermittent sources—after all, the sun isn’t always shining and the wind isn’t always blowing. But a study out today suggests that the United States could, at least in theory, use new high-voltage power lines to move renewable power across the nation, and essentially eliminate the need to add new storage capacity.

This improved national grid, based on existing technologies, could enable utilities to cut power-sector carbon dioxide emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2030 without boosting power prices, researchers report today in Nature Climate Change.

The findings come on the heels of the Paris climate agreement, in which theUnited States pledged to cut its national emissions by up to 28% from 2005 levels by 2025. About 40% of U.S. emissions come from the power sector, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently released rules that task states with reducing power-sector emissions. States can choose from a menu of strategies, EPA says, such as boosting renewable energy use.

Quoting 25. PedleyCA:

Never know what will happen next... Thanks for the excellent post...
We know what will happen in SoCal...promises of heavy rain and none to speak of! This El Niño is a bust! This week last year was the same, 80 degree temps, clear skies and a walk on the beach. What is going on??
Quoting 31. StormTrackerScott:

WOW folks these short range meso-scale models are extremely impressive and this is just thru 48hrs as this event looks to last just past 60hrs. If this verifies this event could rival the November 2014 heavy rain event across C FL. That's over 8" of rain over Tampa!




I remember that November 2014 event. I had 3.63" that day.
Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:

The WPC is putting Ft. Myers in the crosshairs again for tomorrow's rain event.




As well as the Treasure Coast.
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:



That's strange as the Euro and all these meso scale models focus this across Tampa. Going to be interesting to see where this band sets up overnight. If these WRF models and HRRR models pan out then there could be significant rainfall totals of over 6" in areas from Tampa to Cape Canaveral.


We're at 8.42" here in Fort Myers for the month. This week's event could put us over 10" for January, which is usually a very dry month (1.9" average).
I was saying that this is comparable to us getting 50" of rain during a summer month (5x our normal monthly precipitation)
Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:

The WPC is putting Ft. Myers in the crosshairs again for tomorrow's rain event.




There seems to be some discrepancy as to where the heaviest rain will set up (and how much). The trend this year is south of Tampa Bay. Some models are suggesting that. Norman Ok in their discussion suggested that as well. Other models are suggesting slightly more north over Tampa Bay. 50 miles either way could mean the difference of getting an inch or 3-4 inches.
Quoting 43. Neapolitan:

First this from NWS Tampa: JANUARY 2016 ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE WETTEST JANUARIES ON RECORD...

Then this:




Pretty remarkable to see all the local lakes and ponds full of water during the last week of January. Also, areas that are normally dry this time of year are still underwater (swamp). We have a lot of areas that are seasonal swamps that usually become dry land during the dry season.
Quoting 44. Bucsboltsfan:



There seems to be some discrepancy as to where the heaviest rain will set up (and how much). The trend this year is south of Tampa Bay. Some models are suggesting that. Norman Ok in their discussion suggested that as well. Other models are suggesting slightly more north over Tampa Bay. 50 miles either way could mean the difference of getting an inch or 3-4 inches.


Yes, there are some discrepancies in the models as to where the higher rainfall totals will be. Is anyone's guess at this point, but it seems a good bet that the I-4 corridor and south are in for a good soaking. I'm at 3.11" for the month so not as high as others on here but pretty decent for January.
I remember reading stories about how people used to sell Florida land to northerners during the Winter (dry season). The northerners had no idea their land would become a swamp with water 3 feet deep during the wet season.

Oh, I forgot to tell you to build your house on stilts and that you would need a boat to get to town during the wet season?
Been some serious frigid cold over Asia.
I import tea from Yunnan China, saw my latest shipment had been stuck at Kunming, delayed for 3 days. But yikes, what a nightmare for travelers there - "It has also affected air travel with authorities struggling to divert at least 11,229 passengers who have been stranded at Kunming airport since Saturday, Xinhua said." - from CNN link
Quoting 15. BayFog:


5-day prog has the Pacific jet shoving current split and associated blocking ridge eastward as it piles into the California coast.


Now that is causing a twitch in me trousers! Bring it ON!
Post-snowzilla and a blog about non-US weather and we're back to the pre-hurricane season level of activity.

Gonna go out and find something to do outdoors this weekend. Haven't been to the beach in a second...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BEAUTIFUL UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND AHEAD.
MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR A DEEP W-NW FLOW OF DRY AIR. EACH DAY WILL BECOME GRADUALLY
WARMER AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH RIDGE BUILDING UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PCP WATER
VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH UP THROUGH MONDAY. AIR MASS WILL
ESSENTIALLY DRY OUT FURTHER FRI THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
Quoting 47. Sfloridacat5:

I remember reading stories about how people used to sell Florida land to northerners during the Winter (dry season). The northerners had no idea their land would become a swamp with water 3 feet deep during the wet season.

Oh, I forgot to tell you to build your house on stilts and that you would need a boat to get to town during the wet season?



And dont ferget bout our giant skeeters.

All the mobile homes in these parts have extre tie downs on them cause wen there is a big hatch in the spring them big skeeters try to get at the people inside and get hung up after sticking their stingers into the roof.

If enough of them get stuck on your roof they can lift it off the foundation when they try to fly away!

We tole that to a feller frum New Yawk City but he didnt believe us. Last anyone saw of him wuz his trailer flying north with a flock of sand hill cranes!
Quoting 52. Wacahootaman:



And dont ferget bout our giant skeeters.

All the mobile homes in these parts have extre tie downs on them cause wen there is a big hatch in the spring them big skeeters try to get at the people inside and get hung up after sticking their stingers into the roof.

If enough of them get stuck on your roof they can lift it off the foundation when they try to fly away!

We tole that to a feller frum New Yawk City but he didnt believe us. Last anyone saw of him wuz his trailer flying north with a flock of sand hill cranes!


But hey.. when you shoot one... six drumsticks!
Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:

The WPC is putting Ft. Myers in the crosshairs again for tomorrow's rain event.




This WPC guidance run in this case is based heavily on the GFS qpf. Personally I'm not the biggest fan of the GFS when it comes to precip. It can be pretty buggy, and sometimes it's precip output doesn't necessarily match the parameters that it forecasts, which also is a red flag to me. I'm not saying it's bad, I just think it's not my choice for leaning on for those reasons when it comes to rainfall.

But my main reason is that given the other guidance is further north on the precip placement, that's what I would I would go with. Also, the NWS said moisture advection tends to be more aggressive in reality with these system than guidance usually depicts, which could impact surface low track, and lower level convergence.

Ultimately it's tough to say where the heaviest rain will be. one of the tougher parts of forecasting is rainfall totals and placement.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 262057
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
357 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

...PERIODS OF WET WEATHER OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FORECAST AND OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS (OTHER THAN
THICKENING/LOWER CLOUDS) SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO GO DOWNHILL UNTIL
MUCH LATER THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...850MB-700MB THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME RAPIDLY
EXPANDS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AND OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. DEEP LAYER AND RAPID ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE 295-315K SURFACES IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWED A DEEP LAYER
OF VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN ABOUT 850MB-400MB. TIME-HEIGHT AND CROSS-
SECTIONAL ANALYSIS FROM 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS DRY LAYER WILL
REMAIN PRESENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL ERODE THIS DRY LAYER IN A BIG HURRY...WORKING FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING IT IS COMMON FOR NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
TO HAVE A SLOW BIAS IN THE MOISTENING AND DEVELOPMENT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIMES (USUALLY BY SEVERAL
HOURS). CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN RAMPING UP TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER 06Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS JUST
YET...HOWEVER IF THE USUAL SLOW BIAS ENDS UP BEING EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS EVENT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER COVERAGE BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...BY MIDNIGHT.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS GENERALLY WET WITH PERIOD
SHOWERS/STORMS ALMOST REGION-WIDE. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE
AIDED BY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
AGEOSTROPIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION/OMEGA FIELDS FORCED BY ALL THE
INGREDIENTS MIGRATING NORTHWARD ARE WEAK/MODERATE...BUT BROAD IN
NATURE OFF THE 12Z GFS. THE BROAD RISING MOTION ALTHOUGH
POTENTIALLY NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...AND RESULTING
HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE BEST UPGLIDE/WAA SHIFTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST...BUT WE ARE STILL LEFT WITH BROAD WEAKER UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AS WELL.
THEREFORE...WITH ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SEE NO
REASON WHY PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL NOT PERSIST.
THERE ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO BE PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER
MIXED IN. BUT...FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS/WORK...OVERALL PLANS
SHOULD BE MADE FOR RAIN. MOST CONCERN WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON THE EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EITHER UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND...OR DOWN TOWARD THE FORT MYERS AREA. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS WANT TO LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER
NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PUT THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
UNDERNEATH A A LESS FAVORABLE UPGLIDE REGIME. IF THIS WAS TO
OCCUR...THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH OF THIS
REGION...AND PERHAPS SHOWERS WOULD BE LESS FREQUENT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS IT STANDS NOW...SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE
KEEP QPF GOING OVER FORT MYERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE. ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY
OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THEIR
SIGNIFICANT QPF NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS PUTS LEVY COUNTY IN
A DIFFICULT FORECAST SCENARIO. ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARD A
WETTER SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LIFT MAKES
IT UNWISE TO REALLY SUGGEST ANY TIGHT FORECAST GRADIENTS IN
QPF/RAIN CHANCES AT THE CURRENT TIME. CONFIDENCE IS JUST TO LOW
FOR THAT KIND OF DETAIL.

THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH SMALL) FOR SCT STRONGER
STORMS (EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE) LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE GENERAL I-4
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS CONTINUES TO SEEM APPROPRIATE. LARGE SCALE
LIFT IS CERTAINLY THERE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT (40-50KTS) FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT
HIGH RES LOCAL WRFARW RUNS SHOW DECENT TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO
THE KINEMATICS ARE SETUP DECENT...BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE
INSTABILITY...AND ESPECIALLY SURFACE INSTABILITY ARE THE BIGGEST
QUESTION. BASED ON THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES...THE MARGINAL RISK
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL
THIS IN MIND...THERE DOES APPEAR THAT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST...MAINLY TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD. LIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE SOME ROTATING STORM OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
TO THE WEST OF THE SUNCOAST...WITHIN A ZONE OF EVEN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WARMER SST. LOCAL WRFARW RUNS DO SHOW
OCCASIONAL STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES WITH SIMULATED STORMS
OVER THIS REGION...SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH THE
MODEL ENVIRONMENT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE THIS
ENVIRONMENT DOES EXIST LATE TONIGHT...AS POTENTIAL ROTATING STORMS
ORIGINATING OVER THIS OFFSHORE AREA WOULD TEND TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE COAST WITH TIME INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
nice update interesting more too come wait till ya see the rest of natures tricks
Quoting 54. Jedkins01:



The WPC guidance is based heavily on the GFS qpf. Personally I'm not the biggest fan of the GFS when it comes to precip. It can be pretty buggy, and sometimes it's precip output doesn't necessarily match the parameters that it forecasts, which also is a red flag to me.

Given the other guidance is further north on the precip placement, that's what I would I would go with. Also, the NWS said moisture advection tends to be more aggressive in reality with these system than guidance usually depicts.




Should be an interesting day tomorrow. There will be some flooding in the Tampa Bay area if these rainfall totals verify.
In 50-49 vote, US Senate says climate change not caused by humans
By Sean Cockerham, McClatchy Washington Bureau
Posted Jan. 22, 2015, at 6:59 a.m.
Last modified Jan. 26, 2016, at 12:37 p.m.
WASHINGTON — The Senate rejected the scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change, days after NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared 2014 the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.

The Republican-controlled Senate defeated a measure Wednesday stating that climate change is real and that human activity significantly contributes to it. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, offered the measure as the Senate debated the Keystone XL pipeline, which would tap the carbon-intensive oil sands in the Canadian province of Alberta.

The Senate voted 50-49 on the measure, which required 60 votes in order to pass.

“Only in the halls of Congress is this a controversial piece of legislation,” Schatz said.

The chairman of the environment committee, Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., is an enthusiastic denier of climate change, saying it is the “biggest hoax” perpetrated against mankind.

“The hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate,” Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. “Man can’t change the climate.”

The Senate, with Inhofe’s support, did pass a separate measure saying that climate change is real — just not that human activity is a cause. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., was the only senator to vote against it.

The Democrats pushed for the climate change votes as an attempt to get Republicans on the record in advance of the 2016 elections, with polls showing that a majority of Americans believe humans are causing global warming. The votes were offered as non-binding amendments to the bill authorizing construction of Keystone.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, urged her colleagues to vote against the finding that climate change is significantly caused by humans.

Murkowski, chairwoman of the energy committee, has expressed worries about the impact of climate change on her state. But she said on the Senate floor that the fact the measure included the word “significantly” was enough to merit voting against it.

Some Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have dodged the issue of whether humans are causing climate change, often using the talking point that “I’m not a scientist.”

President Barack Obama mocked the “I’m not a scientist” line in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night.

“Well, I’m not a scientist, either. But you know what? I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities,” Obama said.

Scientists from NASA and NOAA announced last week that 2014 was the hottest year on record, continuing a warming trend that the scientists attributed to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

Just five Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, joined the Democrats on Wednesday in voting for the finding that human activity significantly contributes to climate change.

Graham said he’s not a scientist, but that he has heard enough from scientists on the issue to be convinced.

He rejected Democratic arguments that approving the Keystone XL pipeline would worsen climate change, though, maintaining that the Canadian oil sands are going to be developed even if the pipeline is not built.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC

I love it when they get things right.
Quoting 59. Patrap:

In 50-49 vote, US Senate says climate change not caused by humans
By Sean Cockerham, McClatchy Washington Bureau
Posted Jan. 22, 2015, at 6:59 a.m.
Last modified Jan. 26, 2016, at 12:37 p.m.
WASHINGTON — The Senate rejected the scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change, days after NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared 2014 the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.

The Republican-controlled Senate defeated a measure Wednesday stating that climate change is real and that human activity significantly contributes to it. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, offered the measure as the Senate debated the Keystone XL pipeline, which would tap the carbon-intensive oil sands in the Canadian province of Alberta.

The Senate voted 50-49 on the measure, which required 60 votes in order to pass.

“Only in the halls of Congress is this a controversial piece of legislation,” Schatz said.

The chairman of the environment committee, Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., is an enthusiastic denier of climate change, saying it is the “biggest hoax” perpetrated against mankind.

“The hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate,” Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. “Man can’t change the climate.”

The Senate, with Inhofe’s support, did pass a separate measure saying that climate change is real — just not that human activity is a cause. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., was the only senator to vote against it.

The Democrats pushed for the climate change votes as an attempt to get Republicans on the record in advance of the 2016 elections, with polls showing that a majority of Americans believe humans are causing global warming. The votes were offered as non-binding amendments to the bill authorizing construction of Keystone.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, urged her colleagues to vote against the finding that climate change is significantly caused by humans.

Murkowski, chairwoman of the energy committee, has expressed worries about the impact of climate change on her state. But she said on the Senate floor that the fact the measure included the word “significantly” was enough to merit voting against it.

Some Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have dodged the issue of whether humans are causing climate change, often using the talking point that “I’m not a scientist.”

President Barack Obama mocked the “I’m not a scientist” line in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night.

“Well, I’m not a scientist, either. But you know what? I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities,” Obama said.

Scientists from NASA and NOAA announced last week that 2014 was the hottest year on record, continuing a warming trend that the scientists attributed to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

Just five Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, joined the Democrats on Wednesday in voting for the finding that human activity significantly contributes to climate change.

Graham said he’s not a scientist, but that he has heard enough from scientists on the issue to be convinced.

He rejected Democratic arguments that approving the Keystone XL pipeline would worsen climate change, though, maintaining that the Canadian oil sands are going to be developed even if the pipeline is not built.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC


Oh, a bigger group of zounderkites and fopdoodles Washington has never seen! Most members of the current Republican Senate has elevated ignorance to a virtue; they've made abject stupidity their goal. Surely some of those with at least average IQs must understand that history will not look kindly upon them and their destructive, lethal ideology. How do they not care?
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:



Pretty remarkable to see all the local lakes and ponds full of water during the last week of January. Also, areas that are normally dry this time of year are still underwater (swamp). We have a lot of areas that are seasonal swamps that usually become dry land during the dry season.


Remember how much of south Florida was also in extreme to severe drought at the end of the rain season? It was assumed that South Florida might have a drought that lasts a year or more because of that given the approaching dry season after. By mid December, the drought was about erased in south Florida, and now it's gone completely. It's an odd thought that soil moisture and fresh water levels are much higher now in South Florida here in January than they were in late August.
Quoting 61. Neapolitan:

Oh, a bigger group of zounderkites and fopdoodles Washington has never seen! Most members of the current Republican Senate has elevated ignorance to a virtue; they've made abject stupidity their goal. Surely some of those with at least average IQs must understand that history will not look kindly upon them and their destructive, lethal ideology. How do they not care?

The World looks on.
In Amazement.
Quoting 58. tampabaymatt:



Should be an interesting day tomorrow. There will be some flooding in the Tampa Bay area if these rainfall totals verify.


Yeah for sure, keep in mind the 1-3 inches over a large region doesn't include localized higher totals. We can't rule out localized totals of 5-6 inches. It's tough to say where the heaviest rain lines up, seems as though most areas will get at least 1-2 inches. it's where the 2-3 ends up is tough.
Quoting 62. Jedkins01:



Remember how much of south Florida was also in extreme to severe drought at the end of the rain season? It was assumed that South Florida might have a drought that lasts a year or more because of that given the approaching dry season after. By mid December, the drought was about erased in south Florida, and now it's gone completely. It's an odd thought that soil moisture and fresh water levels are much higher now in South Florida here in January than they were in late August.


Dead on. We were getting pounded back during the summer with record flooding while South Fl baked. I think a lot of central and south Fl will get above normal rains through March or later with El Niño in place.
Quoting 65. Jedkins01:



Yeah for sure, keep in mind the 1-3 inches over a large region doesn't include localized higher totals. We can't rule out localized totals of 5-6 inches. It's tough to say where the heaviest rain lines up, seems as though most areas will get at least 1-2 inches. it's where the 2-3 ends up is tough.


The trend has been for the heaviest To set up South of Tampa Bay. Let's see if that continues.
@ Patrap, here in NC we do things right:

NC bans coastal policies to account for predicted sea-level rise [Link]

And we're not alone [Link]

lol
Quoting 11. sar2401:

Hey, Dak.The conductive concrete concept has been around for about 20 years or so. There have always been three problems to work out. The first is cost, since conductive concrete would cost about $25 more a cubic yard than traditional concrete. That doesn't sound like much until you're putting down a couple of million yards for something like a large airport tarmac. Then it adds up to real money. The second is strength. We have developed concrete mixtures over the last 125 years based on known amounts of materials of known strength. Adding this kind of coal waste to concrete will change all that previous work, and many strength and stability tests will have to be run again. That's also something that will take some big money and time to do, not to mention changing the entire logistics pipeline for aggregate materials. The third is what happens to the melted water.You'd have to devise a grading plan to make sure all the melted water ran off to non-essential areas before it refroze. Using the airport example, you could probably develop a heated drainage system to handle that but, if there's an equipment failure or power outage, you may have made a known problem into a much bigger unknown problem. Developing ways to turn on and off the power automatically is simple compared these issues.
Good points all, sar. Also I have to wonder about energy efficiency. No convection in concrete, so the heat will radiate along the layers in both directions. How do the energy requirements differ from traditional plowing? What about electric-powered plows? There is the cost and also the question of whether there are benefits in CO2 reduction. Also concrete weathers and cracks, then you have a short-circuit on that path resulting in a cold spot. Cracks may not be visible on the surface.
Quoting 39. MtotheJ:

We know what will happen in SoCal...promises of heavy rain and none to speak of! This El Niño is a bust! This week last year was the same, 80 degree temps, clear skies and a walk on the beach. What is going on??
For the status of El Niño in Southern California see the graphs in How does year's rainfall stack up? | scpr.org
Quoting 59. Patrap:

In 50-49 vote, US Senate says climate change not caused by humans
By Sean Cockerham, McClatchy Washington Bureau
Posted Jan. 22, 2015, at 6:59 a.m.
Last modified Jan. 26, 2016, at 12:37 p.m.
WASHINGTON %u2014 The Senate rejected the scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change, days after NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared 2014 the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.

The Republican-controlled Senate defeated a measure Wednesday stating that climate change is real and that human activity significantly contributes to it. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, offered the measure as the Senate debated the Keystone XL pipeline, which would tap the carbon-intensive oil sands in the Canadian province of Alberta.

The Senate voted 50-49 on the measure, which required 60 votes in order to pass.

%u201COnly in the halls of Congress is this a controversial piece of legislation,%u201D Schatz said.

The chairman of the environment committee, Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., is an enthusiastic denier of climate change, saying it is the %u201Cbiggest hoax%u201D perpetrated against mankind.

%u201CThe hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate,%u201D Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. %u201CMan can%u2019t change the climate.%u201D


The Senate, with Inhofe%u2019s support, did pass a separate measure saying that climate change is real %u2014 just not that human activity is a cause. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., was the only senator to vote against it.

The Democrats pushed for the climate change votes as an attempt to get Republicans on the record in advance of the 2016 elections, with polls showing that a majority of Americans believe humans are causing global warming. The votes were offered as non-binding amendments to the bill authorizing construction of Keystone.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, urged her colleagues to vote against the finding that climate change is significantly caused by humans.

Murkowski, chairwoman of the energy committee, has expressed worries about the impact of climate change on her state. But she said on the Senate floor that the fact the measure included the word %u201Csignificantly%u201D was enough to merit voting against it.

Some Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have dodged the issue of whether humans are causing climate change, often using the talking point that %u201CI%u2019m not a scientist.%u201D

President Barack Obama mocked the %u201CI%u2019m not a scientist%u201D line in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night.

%u201CWell, I%u2019m not a scientist, either. But you know what? I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities,%u201D Obama said.

Scientists from NASA and NOAA announced last week that 2014 was the hottest year on record, continuing a warming trend that the scientists attributed to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

Just five Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, joined the Democrats on Wednesday in voting for the finding that human activity significantly contributes to climate change.

Graham said he%u2019s not a scientist, but that he has heard enough from scientists on the issue to be convinced.

He rejected Democratic arguments that approving the Keystone XL pipeline would worsen climate change, though, maintaining that the Canadian oil sands are going to be developed even if the pipeline is not built.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC


It's ironic, because the only excessive arrogance going on here is a politician that is so arrogant that he/she thinks that it's remotely reasonable as someone with no level of experience in climatology to claim thousands of scientists who have dedicated their lives to years of hard education and tedious research to find answers about climate are somehow all part of a vast conspiracy?

These people are freaking nuts, and scary arrogant.
Quoting 71. Jedkins01:



It's ironic, because the only excessive arrogance going on here is a politician that is so arrogant that he/she thinks that it's remotely reasonable as someone with no level of experience in climatology to claim thousands of scientists who have dedicated their lives to years of hard education and tedious research to find answers about climate are somehow all part of a vast conspiracy?

These people are freaking nuts, and scary arrogant.


Most of them know manmade climate change is real. It just isn't convenient and profitable for them at the moment. Once they start figuring out how to make their rich friends richer, they will be singing a different tune and blaming the Democrats for stalling progress on the issue.
Quoting 67. Bucsboltsfan:



The trend has been for the heaviest To set up South of Tampa Bay. Let's see if that continues.


Personally I'm thinking the heaviest will be north of the official forecast right now. I'm not highly confident of such, and if I get it right, it won't make the official forecast poor, it's just I'm leaning at a more northward placement on the heaviest rains. I explained why in earlier post that I replied to.

Forecasting precip amounts and placement is tough though, so it could go either way.
Quoting 66. Bucsboltsfan:



Dead on. We were getting pounded back during the summer with record flooding while South Fl baked. I think a lot of central and south Fl will get above normal rains through March or later with El Ni%uFFFDo in place.


Yeah typically severe weather and heavy rain amounts are enhanced in Florida the most during February and March. This is because the February-March period during a non-El Nino season is also usually wetter and more likely to have severe weather than the other non-summer months.

The reason is that available instability and moisture start to increase by these months, and low pressure systems are closer to Florida and stronger during this period, which usually increases rainfall and the severe threat.
For example, in Central Florida rainfall in February and March averages 3-4 inches compared to an average of around 2 inches in November, December, January, and April.

Also, tornado count in terms of total number and intensity also historically peaks during this time, and the vast majority of tornado deaths and injuries have occurred in the February-March period in Florida.

Given this, this typical average increase in rainfall and severe weather during that period is usually spiked upward with El Nino as well.
Quoting 64. luvtogolf:

If you don't like our gov't then feel free to leave. There's lot's of wonderful places outside the ignorant and stupid US you can live.


You would agree that loving one's place to live can meaning criticism when it's needed?

Who do you think cares more about a situation, one who points things out when something is seriously wrong, or someone who's attitude is "Whatever, bro, it's all good".

Who cares more?

Those who believe such things are wrong and voice so is a reflection of concern, not hatred for the U.S., people who don't care however, might actually be the ones who would do better leaving the U.S., given if such individuals are fine with whatever happens.

Here's to what is hopefully a active hurricane season :)



JAN 25 2016, 5:48 PM ET
California Residents Turn to Drones to Document Coastal Erosion
by ASSOCIATED PRESS


LONG BEACH, Calif. — Forget about selfies. In California, residents are using smartphones and drones to document the coastline's changing face.

Starting this month, The Nature Conservancy is asking tech junkies to capture the flooding and coastal erosion that come with El Nino, a weather pattern that's bringing California its wettest winter in years — and all in the name of science.
The idea is that crowd-sourced, geotagged images of storm surges and flooded beaches will give scientists a brief window into what the future holds as sea levels rise from global warming, a sort of a crystal ball for climate change.

Images from the latest drones, which can produce high-resolution 3D maps, will be particularly useful and will help scientists determine if predictive models about coastal flooding are accurate, said Matt Merrifield, the organization's chief technology officer.

"We use these projected models and they don't quite look right, but we're lacking any empirical evidence," he said. "This is essentially a way of 'ground truthing' those models."

Experts on climate change agreed that El Nino-fueled storms offer a sneak peak of the future and said the project was a novel way to raise public awareness. Because of its crowd-sourced nature, however, they cautioned the experiment might not yield all the results organizers hoped for, although any additional information is useful.

"It's not the answer, but it's a part of the answer," said Lesley Ewing, senior coastal engineer with the California Coastal Commission. "It's a piece of the puzzle."
In California, nearly a half-million people, $100 billion in property and critical infrastructure such as schools, power plants and highways will be at risk of inundation during a major storm if sea level rises another 4.6 feet — a figure that could become a reality by 2100, according to a 2009 Pacific Institute study commissioned by three state agencies.

Related: FAA Says Nearly 300,000 Drone Owners Have Registered in First 30 Days

Beaches that Californians take for granted will become much smaller or disappear altogether and El Nino-fueled storms will have a similar effect, if only temporarily, said William Patzert, a climatologist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

"When you get big winter storm surge like they want to document, you tend to lose a lot of beach," he said. "In a way, it's like doing a documentary on the future. It'll show you what your beaches will look like in 100 years."

What the mapping won't be able to predict is exactly which beaches will disappear and which bluffs will crumble — all things that will affect how flooding impacts coastal populations, said Ewing, the California Coastal Commission engineer.

"We're not going to capture that change," she said. "We're going to capture where the water could go to with this current landscape and that's still a very important thing to understand because it gets at those hot spots."

Related: Researchers Pilot a Drone Using an Apple Watch

So far, project organizers aren't giving assignments to participants, although they may send out specific requests as the winter unfolds, said Merrifield.

If users wind up mapping real-time flooding events along 10 or 15 percent of California's 840-mile-long coastline the project will be a success, he said. A realistic goal is a "curated selection" of 3D maps showing flooding up and down the coast at different dates and times.

The Nature Conservancy has partnered with a San Francisco-area startup called DroneDeploy that will provide a free app to drone owners for consistency. The app will provide automated flight patterns at the touch of a screen while cloud-based technology will make managing so much data feasible, said Ian Smith, a business developer for the company.

Trent Lukaczyk heard about the experiment from a posting in a Facebook group dedicated to drone enthusiasts. For the aerospace engineer, who has already used drones to map coral reefs in American Samoa, the volunteer work was appealing.

"It's a really exciting application. It's not just something to take a selfie with," he said, before heading out to collect images of beach erosion after a storm in Pacifica, California.
Quoting 59. Patrap:

WASHINGTON — The Senate rejected the scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change, days after NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared 2014 the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.



2014 or 2015?
Quoting 72. NNYer:



Most of them know manmade climate change is real. It just isn't convenient and profitable for them at the moment. Once they start figuring out how to make their rich friends richer, they will be singing a different tune and blaming the Democrats for stalling progress on the issue.


You may be on to something.

It's frustrating as a conservative to see so many people caving and assuming it's a hoax without evening looking into it with honesty just because said people are conservative, and if democrats believe it, it must be wrong.

The hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate, Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. Man cant change the climate.

ok no holding back now unleash all upon the lands
Quoting 72. NNYer:



Most of them know manmade climate change is real. It just isn't convenient and profitable for them at the moment. Once they start figuring out how to make their rich friends richer, they will be singing a different tune and blaming the Democrats for stalling progress on the issue.


Horsefeathers.
Good evening everyone



Quoting 61. Neapolitan:

Oh, a bigger group of zounderkites and fopdoodles Washington has never seen! Most members of the current Republican Senate has elevated ignorance to a virtue; they've made abject stupidity their goal. Surely some of those with at least average IQs must understand that history will not look kindly upon them and their destructive, lethal ideology. How do they not care?


Votes and dollars. The converse is more so true. They're backing interests, like many on both sides do. Not to mention both red and blue have become more polarizing over the last few ec's, and not just among voters, among themselves.

I think we tend to share this disbelief as a science-based blog with these sorts of things (evolution being another) without taking into account how a large population, well educated or not, is raised into thinking on the contrary (call it arrogance, call it rotten fruit from dead trees or whatever) but I doubt the climate change denying is bringing in new voters, no more so than anyone offset by something like gay marriage but still voting Dem because it suits their best interests (economically for instance). I can say that most people I know who vote Rep do so either because of fiscal policy or religon/morality and not environmental, though the healthcare situation has been the big flip flopper both ways.

But I guess we are talking about the people playing for these votes, not the votes themselves, sorry for the ramble.
Quoting 52. Wacahootaman:



And dont ferget bout our giant skeeters.

All the mobile homes in these parts have extre tie downs on them cause wen there is a big hatch in the spring them big skeeters try to get at the people inside and get hung up after sticking their stingers into the roof.

If enough of them get stuck on your roof they can lift it off the foundation when they try to fly away!

We tole that to a feller frum New Yawk City but he didnt believe us. Last anyone saw of him wuz his trailer flying north with a flock of sand hill cranes!
And some folks don't know how hot it gets! I remember being at Grandpa's farm near Two Egg one summer when it got so hot that his corn started popping on the stalk! The mule thought it was snowing and froze to death!
Quoting 77. Patrap:




JAN 25 2016, 5:48 PM ET
California Residents Turn to Drones to Document Coastal Erosion
by ASSOCIATED PRESS


LONG BEACH, Calif. %u2014 Forget about selfies. In California, residents are using smartphones and drones to document the coastline's changing face.

Starting this month, The Nature Conservancy is asking tech junkies to capture the flooding and coastal erosion that come with El Nino, a weather pattern that's bringing California its wettest winter in years %u2014 and all in the name of science.
The idea is that crowd-sourced, geotagged images of storm surges and flooded beaches will give scientists a brief window into what the future holds as sea levels rise from global warming, a sort of a crystal ball for climate change.

Images from the latest drones, which can produce high-resolution 3D maps, will be particularly useful and will help scientists determine if predictive models about coastal flooding are accurate, said Matt Merrifield, the organization's chief technology officer.

"We use these projected models and they don't quite look right, but we're lacking any empirical evidence," he said. "This is essentially a way of 'ground truthing' those models."

Experts on climate change agreed that El Nino-fueled storms offer a sneak peak of the future and said the project was a novel way to raise public awareness. Because of its crowd-sourced nature, however, they cautioned the experiment might not yield all the results organizers hoped for, although any additional information is useful.

"It's not the answer, but it's a part of the answer," said Lesley Ewing, senior coastal engineer with the California Coastal Commission. "It's a piece of the puzzle."
In California, nearly a half-million people, $100 billion in property and critical infrastructure such as schools, power plants and highways will be at risk of inundation during a major storm if sea level rises another 4.6 feet %u2014 a figure that could become a reality by 2100, according to a 2009 Pacific Institute study commissioned by three state agencies.

Related: FAA Says Nearly 300,000 Drone Owners Have Registered in First 30 Days

Beaches that Californians take for granted will become much smaller or disappear altogether and El Nino-fueled storms will have a similar effect, if only temporarily, said William Patzert, a climatologist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

"When you get big winter storm surge like they want to document, you tend to lose a lot of beach," he said. "In a way, it's like doing a documentary on the future. It'll show you what your beaches will look like in 100 years."

What the mapping won't be able to predict is exactly which beaches will disappear and which bluffs will crumble %u2014 all things that will affect how flooding impacts coastal populations, said Ewing, the California Coastal Commission engineer.

"We're not going to capture that change," she said. "We're going to capture where the water could go to with this current landscape and that's still a very important thing to understand because it gets at those hot spots."

Related: Researchers Pilot a Drone Using an Apple Watch

So far, project organizers aren't giving assignments to participants, although they may send out specific requests as the winter unfolds, said Merrifield.

If users wind up mapping real-time flooding events along 10 or 15 percent of California's 840-mile-long coastline the project will be a success, he said. A realistic goal is a "curated selection" of 3D maps showing flooding up and down the coast at different dates and times.

The Nature Conservancy has partnered with a San Francisco-area startup called DroneDeploy that will provide a free app to drone owners for consistency. The app will provide automated flight patterns at the touch of a screen while cloud-based technology will make managing so much data feasible, said Ian Smith, a business developer for the company.

Trent Lukaczyk heard about the experiment from a posting in a Facebook group dedicated to drone enthusiasts. For the aerospace engineer, who has already used drones to map coral reefs in American Samoa, the volunteer work was appealing.

"It's a really exciting application. It's not just something to take a selfie with," he said, before heading out to collect images of beach erosion after a storm in Pacifica, California.


That's Pacifica Ca, not Long Beach... I live 3 miles from this location.
Quoting 64. luvtogolf:

If you don't like our gov't then feel free to leave. There's lot's of wonderful places outside the ignorant and stupid US you can live.

Then why aren't all those right wing nutters, like the ones holed up in Oregon, streaming for the exits? I'd gladly hold the door open for them on their way out.
Good evening. Looks like some in Eastern Asia (Hongkong) enjoyed the sudden cold spell ...


... others did not. Watch this video of some individuals, faced with black ice on the slopes of Mt Tai Mo Shan in Hongkong, lol: Link.
Source.
Quoting 39. MtotheJ:

We know what will happen in SoCal...promises of heavy rain and none to speak of! This El Nio is a bust! This week last year was the same, 80 degree temps, clear skies and a walk on the beach. What is going on??

Hopefully, your talk of El Nino being a bust is premature. I am in Soo Cal and have just under 5" rain for January. El Nino has been dumping copious amounts of rain in Northern California where we need it the most. Shasta Lake almost 50% Full after getting down to 28% of capacity. We have a storm forecast for Sun-Monday with pretty decent amounts . We still have 2 more months where anything can happen and part of April to a lesser extent.

Quoting 81. PensacolaDoug:



Horsefeathers.
Ha Ha !!! Good one PD !!! Go get 'em!
Quoting 79. Jedkins01:



You may be on to something.

It's frustrating as a conservative to see so many people caving and assuming it's a hoax without evening looking into it with honesty just because said people are conservative, and if democrats believe it, it must be wrong.




We've got a big us and them issue. It's a two-way street though.
On another interesting political move, the local elected city and county officials in Tallahassee and Leon county Florida have banned snow.Link
Quoting 81. PensacolaDoug:



Horsefeathers.


Do you doubt that if the fossil fuel interests had figured a way to control the renewable energy market that we would not already be on renewable energy sources? If you say no, your horses have no feathers. If you say yes, you will have covered yourself in horse feathers.
Quoting 68. win1gamegiantsplease:

@ Patrap, here in NC we do things right:

NC bans coastal policies to account for predicted sea-level rise [Link]

And we're not alone [Link]

lol


How about a law banning education and anyone with a degree higher than a highschool diploma gets burned at the stake? That'll teech dem edumacated glubul vermints dat we don tek keendly to der keend rund thar.
Quoting 73. Jedkins01:



Personally I'm thinking the heaviest will be north of the official forecast right now. I'm not highly confident of such, and if I get it right, it won't make the official forecast poor, it's just I'm leaning at a more northward placement on the heaviest rains. I explained why in earlier post that I replied to.

Forecasting precip amounts and placement is tough though, so it could go either way.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1513618652267898/
I'm gonna come out of the shadows for a second and offer Floridians on this group here to join this Facebook page as well. It's a local community project I started recently to discuss weather and spread warnings as needed. We have every day people, chasers and even meteorologists on our page and we are trying to grow. Please join!

Hope posting this is ok, mods can pull it off if they don't approve of it, Not trying to detract or pull from this great blog following by any means. Just offering this as a additional tool to my local weather comrades!
Thanks,
Josh
Cold in far north Vietnam

Sa Pa is in the far north of Vietnam at over 4,900 feet, and it has snowed there before. It is possible they reached a new record low, which was -2C.
I think it is great when young people are politically active. Cody's choice is not my choice but I respect it.
Quoting 59. Patrap:

In 50-49 vote, US Senate says climate change not caused by humans
By Sean Cockerham, McClatchy Washington Bureau
Posted Jan. 22, 2015, at 6:59 a.m.
Last modified Jan. 26, 2016, at 12:37 p.m.
WASHINGTON — The Senate rejected the scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change, days after NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared 2014 the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.

The Republican-controlled Senate defeated a measure Wednesday stating that climate change is real and that human activity significantly contributes to it. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, offered the measure as the Senate debated the Keystone XL pipeline, which would tap the carbon-intensive oil sands in the Canadian province of Alberta.

The Senate voted 50-49 on the measure, which required 60 votes in order to pass.

“Only in the halls of Congress is this a controversial piece of legislation,” Schatz said.

The chairman of the environment committee, Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., is an enthusiastic denier of climate change, saying it is the “biggest hoax” perpetrated against mankind.

“The hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate,” Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. “Man can’t change the climate.”

The Senate, with Inhofe’s support, did pass a separate measure saying that climate change is real — just not that human activity is a cause. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., was the only senator to vote against it.

The Democrats pushed for the climate change votes as an attempt to get Republicans on the record in advance of the 2016 elections, with polls showing that a majority of Americans believe humans are causing global warming. The votes were offered as non-binding amendments to the bill authorizing construction of Keystone.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, urged her colleagues to vote against the finding that climate change is significantly caused by humans.

Murkowski, chairwoman of the energy committee, has expressed worries about the impact of climate change on her state. But she said on the Senate floor that the fact the measure included the word “significantly” was enough to merit voting against it.

Some Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have dodged the issue of whether humans are causing climate change, often using the talking point that “I’m not a scientist.”

President Barack Obama mocked the “I’m not a scientist” line in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night.

“Well, I’m not a scientist, either. But you know what? I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities,” Obama said.

Scientists from NASA and NOAA announced last week that 2014 was the hottest year on record, continuing a warming trend that the scientists attributed to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

Just five Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, joined the Democrats on Wednesday in voting for the finding that human activity significantly contributes to climate change.

Graham said he’s not a scientist, but that he has heard enough from scientists on the issue to be convinced.

He rejected Democratic arguments that approving the Keystone XL pipeline would worsen climate change, though, maintaining that the Canadian oil sands are going to be developed even if the pipeline is not built.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC




Amazing~

Army Corps of Engineers workers Monday (Jan. 25) begin closing the first 10 of 210 bays in the Bonnet Carre Spillway weir, which is used to funnel Mississippi River water into Lake Pontchartrain to reduce the height and speed of water flowing along levees in the New Orleans area. (Matt Roe, Army Corps of Engineers)

Bonnet Carre Spillway closing begins as river slowly drops
By Mark Schleifstein, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune

Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on January 25, 2016 at 1:31 PM, updated January 25, 2016 at 2:31 PM

The Army Corps of Engineers began closing the first 10 of 210 bays in the Bonnet Carre Spillway weir at Norco on Monday (Jan. 25), as the flow of the Mississippi River continued to drop at the Carrollton gauge in New Orleans. The corps hopes to complete the closure of the structure, which diverts river water to Lake Pontchartrain to reduce the height and speed of water stressing levees in the New Orleans area, in seven to 10 days, spokesman Ricky Boyett said.

Boyett said corps workers could decide later Monday to close as many as 25 bays, based on expected weather conditions on Tuesday. That's when the National Weather Service expects a frontal system to produce a chance of thunderstorms in the area, which would create dangerous working conditions atop the weir .

The weir closure is being timed to keep the flow of water past the Carrollton gauge no faster than 1.25 million cubic feet per second. On Sunday, about 190,000 cubic feet per second of water was moving from the river into Lake Pontchartrain. When the first 10 bays are closed, that flow will have dropped to 170,000 cubic feet per second.

The river stood at almost 16 1/2 feet Monday at the Carrollton gauge and was expected to drop to 16 feet by Saturday, according to the National Weather Service's Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. Flood stage at New Orleans is officially 17 feet, although levees and floodwalls protect the city from 20 to 24 feet of water.

Closing the spillway bays requires a reversal of the process that was used to open them. Workers using cranes lift creosoted timbers from their storage locations atop the weir and slowly lower them through the rushing water into the bay structure. "It's a little more challenging because of the speed of the water coming through the bays," Boyett said.

Meanwhile, project delivery teams from the corps' New Orleans District office and other districts along the Mississippi River plan to meet Friday to begin assessing the damage done by this unusually early high river event on the Mississippi River and Tributaries levee system. Unlike after the last major high river event, in 2011, this effort will be divided into identifying repairs that must be made rapidly, in advance of a possible high-river event later in the spring, and repairs that will be required to return the levees to their pre-flood conditions, Boyett said. The teams will prioritize the potential repairs in each category, and present recommendations to senior corps leadership, possibly as early as mid-February.

Corps and local levee district inspectors have identified 212 sites of concern along levees in central and southern Louisiana, with only two labeled as of medium priority. The rest are low priority.

Inspectors from the corps also have checked an area just behind the Audubon Zoo in New Orleans, where earthen fill washed out from behind a border of creosoted timbers, and determined that it is not an immediate threat to safety. The area experienced similar problems in 2011, Boyett said, and Orleans Levee District officials then used sandbags as temporary fill in the area, repairing it after that high river event. Boyett said the levee district has been notified of the issue and could use sandbags as temporary fill again.

1st. stop....Snook Inn on Marco Island.
January 24, 2016: MODIS true color image of NE United States snowfall coverage from Winter Storm Jonas.



Larger Image
Sorry for double post....don't know how to delete.



Quoting 111. HurricaneHunterJoe:

GEM 12Z IS Slower with this coming weekend storm having it hang in the area longer.......looks like about 2" Rain forecast for Ped! Let's hope so. Also looks like Shasta Lake Watershed will get good rains to give that huge storage lake more time to keep filling! Kill 2 birds with one stone so to speak.




It would take all the water in Shasta Lake to water the current crops of almonds/pistaccios.....just amazing! Shasta Lake holds like 4 million acre feet when full . Nuts and Alfalfa are the biggest users.

Please remember: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Quoting 111. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Sorry for double post....don't know how to delete.






I'm not sure if you can delete
Seems I'm going to need to find my poncho and rainboots for tomorrow and Thursday. There is a warm moist Pineapple Express (atmospheric river) due to arrive Wednesday afternoon. Thankfully for us, and especially for California, it will migrate south and impact most of the state of California.

Dr. Cliff Mass has an excellent post today about the upcoming event. Link Below.

Major Atmospheric River for the West Coast
Quoting 117. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'm not sure if you can delete


yes you can this hit Modify Comment and then re move it you will have too put a . or put a new commit
Quoting 87. bryanfromkyleTX:



That's Pacifica Ca, not Long Beach... I live 3 miles from this location.
In addition to this reporter not knowing that Long Beach and Pacifica are about 250 miles away from each other, the story goes on to attribute the erosion to El Nino. That cliff has been eroding away for at least 20 years. Other homes near the apartments were red tagged probably about 15 years ago and the ones that didn't collapse over the side were demolished. Those apartments should never have been allowed to be built where they are. I feel badly for those that will have to move, but I'd feel worse if they ended up taking an unscheduled trip down that cliff.
Quoting 117. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'm not sure if you can delete
No, you can't. The only option is to edit your post and replace the contents with a Gearts period. :-)
124. vis0

Quoting 59. Patrap:

In 50-49 vote, US Senate says climate change not caused by humans
By Sean Cockerham, McClatchy Washington Bureau
Posted Jan. 22, 2015, at 6:59 a.m.
Last modified Jan. 26, 2016, at 12:37 p.m.
WASHINGTON — The Senate rejected the scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change, days after NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared 2014 the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.

The Republican-controlled Senate defeated a measure Wednesday stating that climate change is real and that human activity significantly contributes to it. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, offered the measure as the Senate debated the Keystone XL pipeline, which would tap the carbon-intensive oil sands in the Canadian province of Alberta.

The Senate voted 50-49 on the measure, which required 60 votes in order to pass.

“Only in the halls of Congress is this a controversial piece of legislation,” Schatz said.

The chairman of the environment committee, Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., is an enthusiastic denier of climate change, saying it is the “biggest hoax” perpetrated against mankind.

“The hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate,” Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. “Man can’t change the climate.”

The Senate, with Inhofe’s support, did pass a separate measure saying that climate change is real — just not that human activity is a cause. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., was the only senator to vote against it.

The Democrats pushed for the climate change votes as an attempt to get Republicans on the record in advance of the 2016 elections, with polls showing that a majority of Americans believe humans are causing global warming. The votes were offered as non-binding amendments to the bill authorizing construction of Keystone.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, urged her colleagues to vote against the finding that climate change is significantly caused by humans.

Murkowski, chairwoman of the energy committee, has expressed worries about the impact of climate change on her state. But she said on the Senate floor that the fact the measure included the word “significantly” was enough to merit voting against it.

Some Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have dodged the issue of whether humans are causing climate change, often using the talking point that “I’m not a scientist.”

President Barack Obama mocked the “I’m not a scientist” line in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night.

“Well, I’m not a scientist, either. But you know what? I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities,” Obama said.

Scientists from NASA and NOAA announced last week that 2014 was the hottest year on record, continuing a warming trend that the scientists attributed to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

Just five Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, joined the Democrats on Wednesday in voting for the finding that human activity significantly contributes to climate change.

Graham said he’s not a scientist, but that he has heard enough from scientists on the issue to be convinced.

He rejected Democratic arguments that approving the Keystone XL pipeline would worsen climate change, though, maintaining that the Canadian oil sands are going to be developed even if the pipeline is not built.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC


Reminds me of a little story i gave at a U.N hall just outside the BIG MEETING ROOM.
It was during an early 197os  field trip our History teacher (5th grade @ P.S.116, 33rd st Manhattan ) took us to see the large meeting hall the U/N. used.
We saw those white ear cups like things that were used by diplomats to listen in their     favorite soap opera    language whatever was being said by the speaker that was speaking in another language.
The trip was cut short as they where to have some emergency meeting on how to clean up Earth and how pollution in the drinking water and air would cause problems as to the brains development of children, not just in third world countries but in all countries.
Some British gentleman felt bad that we were being hastily taken out of that big room and asked us what we thought as to  the polluted air

Most kids spoke of asthma or how dirty the air looks. So did i but i added my nutty thinking as he was the  first adult i shared my asthma theory with which i thought of while living in The BronX during the 1960s. It was a play on words as to the 4 Rs (sit down Dr. Masters not the RIDGE redux). Instead it was my theory for asthma with 5 R's as::
Rust (beams when projects where built are left outside unprotected from rain so they rust),
Roach spray ,
Residue  (chemicals reactions in rusting materials as the Roach Sprays on roaches, roaches go into wall and die on peeling rust. This chemical fine dust tricks trachea to spasm as if one is drowning therefore tightening as in protecting the lungs from what the reaction thinks is too much "fluids building"),
Residence (closed windows not having clean air circulating. As in open the window get more soot, close window now soot that is inside recirculates indoor)
i always for get the 5th one but it might be,

Repeating all these negatives over and over places stress on brain trying to regulate the breathing of unhealthy air.
(an medical intern a told the idea to in a NYC hospital many years later received a medical journal award for the idea)

The English Gentleman liked my explanation and jotted it down.
He asked as to how he could get the word across that pollution is bad to people who don't care.
i had just seen on TV (NYC's PIX 11?) Superman (the old TV show) and remember how Superman was sent to Earth 'cause their planet was going to be destroyed )

So i said create a story where people of Earth have to go to another planet cause Earth is too polluted to live in.
When people reach another planet they find out (INSERT COMMERCIAL FOR BURGER KING HERE)

...want to read the rest an enhance version, try reading my comment#289 on my zilly blog pg.6 it's been adapted to fit today's needs...weird how as i was writing that blog comment and the next page i read on Dr. Masters blog had a BaltimoreBrian posted the dead aliens don't communicate story. (insert Robert Klein's whoooOOoOOoOOoOO - mysterious happenings sound HERE)

Later met an Native American who thought the world of my thoughts and story idea and we talked more of my theories as to science (waiting for the school bus) and he said not to share too much too quickly 'cause my theories would be misused if studied and found to be real.
One of the things was how i stated Native American's Headdress (specific numbers / percentages as to feather and skull size and foramen points, together with heartbeat to drumming were created to communicate with nature in opening the soul-spirit link to secret (as i called it then) energies to influence wind currents.

Who is it that has Vulcan Spock as their WxU avatar?, Hydrus? (i have images not loaded, otherwise at 49-56k it'd take 30 minutes to load a pg)
If you only knew (maybe knows) how the mind meld is very real but the points are not far from the eyes and eye socket anchors.  One can change ones outward soul's flow to actually create a hypnotic flow and that can change how people see you to even communicate with damaged minds, no joke.  One problem is if done too many times to quickly the eye socket pressure causes eye problems.
 WARNING now that i mention it some will try something DO NOT DO anything unless its in your souls "MEMORY",(AS IN YOU'VE LIVED IT BEFORE AND INSTINCTIVELY KNOW WHERE TO PLACE PINKY OR HOW TO BEND Thumbs KNUCKLE of the distal phalange)
 DONE INCORRECTLY IT CAUSE A NEGATIVE FLOW WHERE PEOPLE ALL OF SUDDEN DON'T WANT TO BE NEAR YOU and have a negative feeling 'bout you not to mention damage vision.
 
 NO not like that Seattleite (watch by this weekend kids in music classes will be doing this instead of learning their doe re me fa sol la ti!!!!!!!!! next that "doe re mi" will be a rapper name....

Weather? looks like things are getting active near Florida, the next "updacoast" LOW is being predicted to go out to sea after teasing Ga., lets observe...
Quoting 122. sar2401:

No, you can't. The only option is to edit your post and replace the contents with a Gearts period. :-)


That was great. I like how you and Taz gave that as similar advice.
Quoting 118. Seattleite:

Seems I'm going to need to find my poncho and rainboots for tomorrow and Thursday. There is a warm moist Pineapple Express (atmospheric river) due to arrive Wednesday afternoon. Thankfully for us, and especially for California, it will migrate south and impact most of the state of California.

Dr. Cliff Mass has an excellent post today about the upcoming event. Link Below.

Major Atmospheric River for the West Coast
This is it. It's the beginning of the El Nino February storm attack. I have been saying this now for like three months. I would really, really hate it if I was one of the poor rescue people having to get people off roof or dig them out from mudslides. I hope it's not going to be as bad as I think it will, but I lived through the last two strong El ninos there and it wasn't fun, although it did end a drought both times. The current storm coming through here, however, looks like it's about to join the ranks of the underperformers. It was supposed to rain most of tonight and into tomorrow afternoon. Now it looks like tonight though maybe 6:00 in the morning is more likely.
Quoting 115. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It would take all the water in Shasta Lake to water the current crops of almonds/pistaccios.....just amazing! Shasta Lake holds like 4 million acre feet when full . Nuts and Alfalfa are the biggest users.


And both are watered primarily by flooding, the most inefficient irrigation method you can use. If California would mandate more efficient methods the water would go a lot further.
Quoting 125. win1gamegiantsplease:



That was great. I like how you and Taz gave that as similar advice.
Now that's a pretty scary concept. :-)
Quoting 107. Patrap:

2016 kicked off with rising waters in the Mississippi River in January. As in 2011, the Bonnet Carre Spillway, located in the southwestern corner of Lake Pontchartrain, was opened on January 10th, to relieve pressure on the levees. Engineers sought to limit the river flow at New Orleans to no more than 1.25 million cubic feet per second (cfs). These images catalog the macro-scale movement of this sediment-laden water.




Those are some crisp photographs. The cirrocumulus clouds in the 4th picture with the large delta depositions is my favorite.

Quoting 116. auburn:

Please remember: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.


I guess I goofed. I did link an article about the cumulative effects of ENSO and warm-phase PDO on the west coast in one of them :(
Respectful political debate is welcome on my blog. And about the off-topic news story in comment #105 there.
Quoting 131. BaltimoreBrian:

Respectful political debate is welcome on my blog. And about the off-topic news story in comment #105 there.


Politics are fine in a private blog...
Link / NASA provides a look at post-blizzard snowfall and winds, January 26, 2016 by Rob Gutro.

"The RapidScat instrument flies aboard the International Space Station and measures surface winds over the ocean. On Jan. 23 at 5 a.m. EST, RapidScat showed sustained winds as strong as 45 meters per second (100 mph/162 kph) along the coast of southern New Jersey, which included areas from Cape May to Atlantic City. Those winds led to flooding along coastal areas."
I encourage everyone to talk about politics all they want in their own blog...but PLEASE keep it out of the featured blogs....Thats all we ask.
If you "suspect"your post "Might"cross the line...It probably does.Carry it to your blog or PM.
Us mods dont get pay,we do this because we love WU and enjoy you all.We are here to help make the site better.
Looks like the severe threat won't be too big of a deal tomorrow unless the models end up being way off. Though that seems unlikely. This looks like a setup where thunderstorms may get robust in terms of intense rainfall and gusty winds, but threat of them going severe seems quite low.

SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF POSITIVE TILT TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. NRN STREAM WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN
STATES...WHILE SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TX INTO THE WRN GULF.
AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE NC COAST SWWD THROUGH THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN GULF WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL PENINSULA...

A SERIES OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
GULF AND FL PENINSULA DOWNWIND FROM POSITIVE-TILT SRN STREAM TROUGH.
ONE SUCH IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF WILL REACH FL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD....AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH SRN
INTO CNTRL FL WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH
GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH SRN
FL...WITH UPPER 60S FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL FL. THE NWD ADVECTION
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISM...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST /500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/ DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER A PORTION
OF THE PENINSULA WHERE ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY THE PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT ALSO
WITHIN CONFLUENT ZONES IN WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
HODOGRAPHS WILL INITIALLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM
FRONT...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE. AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE MORNING WHEN
THE NEAR-SFC LAYER WILL BE MORE STABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF ONGOING STORMS. WITH THIS POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR...WILL
MAINTAIN MARGINAL RISK THIS UPDATE BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
Quoting 136. Jedkins01:

Looks like the severe threat won't be too big of a deal tomorrow unless the models end up being way off. Though that seems unlikely. This looks like a setup where thunderstorms may get robust in terms of intense rainfall and gusty winds, but threat of them going severe seems quite low.

SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF POSITIVE TILT TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. NRN STREAM WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN
STATES...WHILE SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TX INTO THE WRN GULF.
AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE NC COAST SWWD THROUGH THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN GULF WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL PENINSULA...

A SERIES OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
GULF AND FL PENINSULA DOWNWIND FROM POSITIVE-TILT SRN STREAM TROUGH.
ONE SUCH IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF WILL REACH FL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD....AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH SRN
INTO CNTRL FL WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH
GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH SRN
FL...WITH UPPER 60S FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL FL. THE NWD ADVECTION
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISM...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST /500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/ DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER A PORTION
OF THE PENINSULA WHERE ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY THE PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT ALSO
WITHIN CONFLUENT ZONES IN WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
HODOGRAPHS WILL INITIALLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM
FRONT...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE. AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE MORNING WHEN
THE NEAR-SFC LAYER WILL BE MORE STABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF ONGOING STORMS. WITH THIS POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR...WILL
MAINTAIN MARGINAL RISK THIS UPDATE BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

Have you taken a look at the radar as this storm moves through Alabama? This is not going according to forecast so far. The front is actually moving through before any of the precipitation. It's all post frontal right now. Because the lifting mechanism is declining as the front is outrunning the moisture, the now relatively thin band of showers is getting shredded, with some big holes showing up. The forecast as late as this morning was for 1 to 1.5 inches with isolated amounts of 2 inches. I have had no measurable rain so far. Florida, being Florida, will probably get more rain out of this than I will, but I expect maybe half an inch, and more likely a quarter inch. The chances of anything severe there has to be as close to zero as you can get and still have a CYA margin. :-)
138. vis0

Quoting 118. Seattleite:

Seems I'm going to need to find my poncho and rainboots for tomorrow and Thursday. There is a warm moist Pineapple Express (atmospheric river) due to arrive Wednesday afternoon. Thankfully for us, and especially for California, it will migrate south and impact most of the state of California.

Dr. Cliff Mass has an excellent post today about the upcoming event. Link Below.

Major Atmospheric River for the West Coast
OhOh, everyone practiced their emergency drills? Have charged batteries, Local emergency stop off points/shelters.  Not alarming anyone but refreshing the minds of those in the path of this fort knox-wall of water.
Quoting 133. 999Ai2016:

Link / NASA provides a look at post-blizzard snowfall and winds, January 26, 2016 by Rob Gutro.

"The RapidScat instrument flies aboard the International Space Station and measures surface winds over the ocean. On Jan. 23 at 5 a.m. EST, RapidScat showed sustained winds as strong as 45 meters per second (100 mph/162 kph) along the coast of southern New Jersey, which included areas from Cape May to Atlantic City. Those winds led to flooding along coastal areas."


South Jersey to Delmarva got a hard hit from coastal flooding, that lines up pretty well. [Link]
Quoting 124. vis0:


NO not like that Seattleite (watch by this weekend kids in music classes will be doing this instead of learning their doe re me fa sol la ti!!!!!!!!! next that "doe re mi" will be a rapper name....

Weather? looks like things are getting active near Florida, the next "updacoast" LOW is being predicted to go out to sea after teasing Ga., lets observe...



Lol. This month the topic for the little one's music class is "Helping our Earth." Today we did a sign language song about picking up litter so it doesn't go to the river, then flow into the oceans. Also sang a song "The Earth Needs Our Help" to the tune Farmer in the Dell that I devised. As to the picture, if I try to do that my hands bend so far backwards that I can touch far past my eyes/cheeks and touch the collarbone. I don't show the kids my "special" moves as you say, because they will certainly mimic them and quite possibly hurt themselves. Although they do often see a "bone pop out" as I explain it to them. I simply reduce the dislocated joint and we get on with class! Meh, EDS.
Quoting 80. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

The hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate, Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. Man cant change the climate.

ok no holding back now unleash all upon the lands
Let me get this straight. It's OK for a mod to write a clearly political post but the rest of us get banned and have our posts deleted?
Saturday Afternoon 130kt jet into California via Point Conception.



24 hours later



Another 24 hours



Could be an interesting weekend/beginning of the week in Central/Soo Cal!
Quoting 141. sar2401:

Let me get this straight. It's OK for a mod to write a clearly political post but the rest of us get banned and have our posts deleted?

I did not write it was a quote

and its related to the science of weather which is allowed as long as its in reference to the science of climate in the discussion


Man cant change the climate

Quoting 137. sar2401:

Have you taken a look at the radar as this storm moves through Alabama? This is not going according to forecast so far. The front is actually moving through before any of the precipitation. It's all post frontal right now. Because the lifting mechanism is declining as the front is outrunning the moisture, the now relatively thin band of showers is getting shredded, with some big holes showing up. The forecast as late as this morning was for 1 to 1.5 inches with isolated amounts of 2 inches. I have had no measurable rain so far. Florida, being Florida, will probably get more rain out of this than I will, but I expect maybe half an inch, and more likely a quarter inch. The chances of anything severe there has to be as close to zero as you can get and still have a CYA margin. :-)


Wow, that's always depressing to expect a lot of rain and end up with hardly any. We went through a stream this past fall where we had 2 events where we expected 2-3 inches with 100 pops and ended up getting only around 0.10-0.25 from those events. It was really frustrating trying to determine how the forecast models could screw up that bad, and I'm still stumped thinking about how off the forecast was. The models were even much more aggressive than the official, some had like 5-6 inches over us.

Thankfully we made up for it afterward, after severe drought we got 8.76 in November, 6.65 in December, and so far 4.42 for January, so we are doing fine now.

Unfortunately tomorrow looks like a dud for us while to the south will get soaked, but at least I'm already not expecting much. It's worse to expect heavy rains and get little to none.
The NWS Hemming and Hawwing around about the POTENTIAL storm for Soo Cal. This from NWS Los Angeles.


.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...

THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT BOTH THE TIMING AND
THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. ONE POSSIBILITY WILL BRING A HEAVY AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BEGINNING FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION COMING ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER SOLUTION BRINGS THE WEATHER IN EARLIER AND POSSIBLY
STILL LINGERS IT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BUT WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS
A LOT LESS OVERALL THAN THE FIRST SOLUTION.

THE FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE FIRST SOLUTION WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FALLING ON SUNDAY AND WETTING THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH NOTABLE IF NOT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. THIS IS BASED UPON
THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR A DAY FIVE EVENT THOUGH. THE PW REMAINS
WELL ABOVE AN INCH AND THE NOZZLE IS WELL CONNECTED TO THE WEATHER
SYSTEM IN GENERAL INCLUDING SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW. THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE THE
LOW TO DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH.

LESS LIKELY BUT ALSO POSSIBLE ARE THAT THE SYSTEM MISS US OR
WASHOUTPRIOR TO ARRIVAL. THESE OPTIONS BEAR CONSIDERING BUT AT THIS
TIME THEY ARE NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE
IMPACT OF A HEAVY SYSTEM OCCURRING ARE DAMAGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR IT EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES.


Lol sometimes the island is very very green... that's why I love LA NINA years !!




:)
Quoting 115. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It would take all the water in Shasta Lake to water the current crops of almonds/pistaccios.....just amazing! Shasta Lake holds like 4 million acre feet when full . Nuts and Alfalfa are the biggest users.




Where are they getting their water from then? I've never understood why so many of the U.S. crops are grown in a region of California that averages less rain than many areas, including much of the plains. Yes some parts of California are in a very, very wet climate zone like the northern portion. But a lot crops are grown regions that average only like 20 inches of rain a year, and I find that odd.

On another note, I just got some oranges that are from California from the grocery store, and they taste great. Some they must be grown in an area not suffering from as much drought.
Very small earthquake swarm near Mt. Rainier yesterday [Link]
Quoting 96. Catherdr:

On another interesting political move, the local elected city and county officials in Tallahassee and Leon county Florida have banned snow.Link


Just saw that earlier today, it's funny because we just had a few flurries Friday night and accumulating sleet and freezing rain in January 2014 here. I guess the point is they are trying to appeal to northern snow birds, and in a way, it's good plan, because winters here are still vastly more mild than up north, and overall accumulating frozen precip is rare here.

I've actually really come to like winters here, as they are more consistently cool than further south where I'm from in the Tampa Bay area, but still a lot more mild than up north, so the cooler weather isn't obnoxious.
Quoting 150. help4u:

Another amazing thing in less than one hour ALGORE prediction of the earth burning up will pass!Made 10 years ago!Boy that was close.


Why are you even here?
Quoting 101. thunderbug91:


https://www.facebook.com/groups/1513618652267898/
I'm gonna come out of the shadows for a second and offer Floridians on this group here to join this Facebook page as well. It's a local community project I started recently to discuss weather and spread warnings as needed. We have every day people, chasers and even meteorologists on our page and we are trying to grow. Please join!

Hope posting this is ok, mods can pull it off if they don't approve of it, Not trying to detract or pull from this great blog following by any means. Just offering this as a additional tool to my local weather comrades!
Thanks,
Josh


Thanks for letting me know, I just joined.
Quoting 151. Jedkins01:



Just saw that earlier today, it's funny because we just had a few flurries Friday night and accumulating sleet and freezing rain in January 2014 here. I guess the point is they are trying to appeal to northern snow birds, and in a way, it's good plan, because winters here are still vastly more mild than up north, and overall accumulating frozen precip is rare here.

I've actually really come to like winters here, as they are more consistently cool than further south where I'm from in the Tampa Bay area, but still a lot more mild than up north, so the cooler weather isn't obnoxious.


Or you get that stretch of days lows in the mid 40's and highs in the lower 60's, that's what makes northern FL to ILM nice in the winter, you're usually due for a solid weekend of warm seasonal temps. Friday-Tuesday will be golden up here.
Quoting 154. win1gamegiantsplease:



Or you get that stretch of days lows in the mid 40's and highs in the lower 60's, that's what makes northern FL to ILM nice in the winter, you're usually due for a solid weekend of warm seasonal temps. Friday-Tuesday will be golden up here.


Agreed, winters are great here, it's still a change in season, but it's not too cold. If you want to get away from the brutal cold, but still want a consistent change in season, the northern gulf coast is great for that. If you hate any kind of cool weather and like endless summer, Miami to the Keys is more like it.
Quoting 150. help4u:

Another amazing thing in less than one hour ALGORE prediction of the earth burning up will pass!Made 10 years ago!Boy that was close.

"Blah blah blah blah ALGORE blah blah blah."
"Nothing new under the sun."
Quoting 108. Abacosurf:

1st. stop....Snook Inn on Marco Island.



They still have Grouper House in Naples? That place was mackin back in the mid 80's days of my time there. Played golf at Naples Shores just east of 951 and 41....then to Grouper House to replenish calories!
Quoting 143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I did not write it was a quote

and its related to the science of weather which is allowed as long as its in reference to the science of climate in the discussion


Man cant change the climate


So Inhofe said "ok no holding back now unleash all upon the lands"? I must have missed that part.
"It's too quiet..."

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.
Quoting 152. Jedkins01:



Why are you even here?
His post was deleted, and almost no one would have known about it if you hadn't quoted it. We're shooting ourselves in that foot by doing that.
Quoting 161. Tampa969mlb:

It's safe to say AL gore uses more energy that probably 5 regular people on any given day.

"Blah blah blah blah AL gore blah blah blah."
---Alert--- There seems to be a problem with human-generated political speech on this blog. I suggest using this brand new AI (actually upgraded from the stolen beta project "999AI2016") whenever needed:

Link / "Kassarnig performed an experiment where he created an artificial intelligence machine that learned how to write political speeches similar to real speeches and discussed the results.
As for his data source, the main source was the Convote data set, which contained 3857 speech segments from 53 US Congressional floor debates from the year 2005.
Results? "In an experimental evaluation our system performed very well. In particular, the grammatical correctness and the sentence transitions of most speeches were very good. However, there are no comparable systems which would allow a direct comparison."

Abstract :
In this report we present a system that can generate political speeches for a desired political party. Furthermore, the system allows to specify whether a speech should hold a supportive or opposing opinion. The system relies on a combination of several state-of-the-art NLP methods which are discussed in this report. These include n-grams, Justeson & Katz POS tag filter, recurrent neural networks, and latent Dirichlet allocation. Sequences of words are generated based on probabilities obtained from two underlying models: A language model takes care of the grammatical correctness while a topic model aims for textual consistency. Both models were trained on the Convote dataset which contains transcripts from US congressional floor debates. Furthermore, we present a manual and an automated approach to evaluate the quality of generated speeches. In an experimental evaluation generated speeches have shown very high quality in terms of grammatical correctness and sentence transitions.
Obviously, a certain poster did not read the whole comment. Just picked out 2 certain words that must have flagged his memory. JMO

Quoting 143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I did not write it was a quote

and its related to the science of weather which is allowed as long as its in reference to the science of climate in the discussion


Man cant change the climate


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
938 PM PST TUE JAN 26 2016

...LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SPUN UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW WEST OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WITH STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW TONIGHTS ECMWF HANDLES THE SUNDAY SYSTEM.
It's been raining here for the last 2 hrs. (SWFLA) Just light to moderate at time!

Quoting 144. Jedkins01:



Wow, that's always depressing to expect a lot of rain and end up with hardly any. We went through a stream this past fall where we had 2 events where we expected 2-3 inches with 100 pops and ended up getting only around 0.10-0.25 from those events. It was really frustrating trying to determine how the forecast models could screw up that bad, and I'm still stumped thinking about how off the forecast was. The models were even much more aggressive than the official, some had like 5-6 inches over us.

Thankfully we made up for it afterward, after severe drought we got 8.76 in November, 6.65 in December, and so far 4.42 for January, so we are doing fine now.

Unfortunately tomorrow looks like a dud for us while to the south will get soaked, but at least I'm already not expecting much. It's worse to expect heavy rains and get little to none.
Quoting 156. oldnewmex:


"Blah blah blah blah ALGORE blah blah blah."
"Nothing new under the sun."


Kalee Kreider, a spokeswoman for Gore, didn’t dispute the electricity figures published by the AP at the time. But she said that the Gores work from their home and purchase energy from renewable solar, wind and methane gas sources. She argued that by participating in the "green" utility program and investing in renewable energy projects worldwide, the Gores were living a "carbon-neutral lifestyle." ...................................... Kreider also told us in an e-mail that the Gores have made several eco-friendly changes to their home, which is now LEED certified. According to the Natural Resources Defense Council, this means that Gores’ home has earned credits in five categories: "sustainable sites, water efficiency, energy and atmosphere, materials and resources and indoor environmental quality." Kreider told us:

Link
Grouper house still open. And that area around 951/41 is a whole different area now!
Raining pretty hard now!


Quoting 157. HurricaneHunterJoe:



They still have Grouper House in Naples? That place was mackin back in the mid 80's days of my time there. Played golf at Naples Shores just east of 951 and 41....then to Grouper House to replenish calories!
Link / Storm Jonas heads for UK raising new flood fears. UK Daily Mail, 26 January 2016, article updated on the 27th.
- Householders in North West still reeling from December floods brace for more misery as Storm Jonas strikes.
- Forecasters expect 3in of rain overnight into today along with 70mph winds followed by another 4in on Friday.
- 13 red flood warnings and 115 amber flood alerts plus severe rain warnings are in place for England and Wales.
- 30ft waves crash into Blackpool, planes lurch across Manchester Airport runway and schools in Cumbria close.

------------------
High winds/waves also heading for UK (later on, if the predicted storm does materialize):

Link / Waves Height (colors), wind direction, 129hrs Monday 1st February 2016 9am GMT

Link / Here's another article (Telegraph), full of "live" updates, pictures from the last floods, and movies showing the huge waves that were battering the coast yesterday.
And here we go. Latest readings : 2.58 C for the arctic region today (temp anom./1979-2000). But nothing to see here, I mean look at that: Antarctic is at -0.41 C, so - obviously- the planet must be cooling... (Sarcasm Flag On)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 08U
2:46 PM WST January 27 2016
=============================

At 2:00 PM WST, A Tropical Low located at 13.6S 118.0E or 660 km northwest of Broome and 750 km north of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Friday as it tracks towards the south and approaches the Pilbara coast. It is not expected to cause GALES in coastal areas on Wednesday or Thursday but GALES may develop on Friday.

Even if the system doesn't develop into a tropical cyclone, strong to gale force winds are likely near the centre and to the north of the system.

The system will gradually develop as it moves towards the south. GALES may develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Dampier, including Port Hedland and Karratha during Friday afternoon or evening. If the system tracks further to the east then GALES may develop as far east as Cape Leveque, including Broome. If the system tracks further west then GALES may extend as far west as Mardie late Friday or early Saturday.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is likely to develop over the Pilbara and far western Kimberley from Friday and extend further south as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Broome, Wallal, Port Hedland, Dampier and Karratha
Quoting 148. Jedkins01:



Where are they getting their water from then? I've never understood why so many of the U.S. crops are grown in a region of California that averages less rain than many areas, including much of the plains. Yes some parts of California are in a very, very wet climate zone like the northern portion. But a lot crops are grown regions that average only like 20 inches of rain a year, and I find that odd.

On another note, I just got some oranges that are from California from the grocery store, and they taste great. Some they must be grown in an area not suffering from as much drought.


When I hit California in 1966, it was orange trees as far as I could see off the freeways once we got away from the desert east of Cajon Pass. I lived in ORANGE County for 4 years, we had orange trees. Moved to San Diego County 1970, we had orange trees....lol. Im thinking that oranges now grow in San Joaquin Valley as the land further south became more valuable as residential home areas, so San Bernadino, Riverside and all the outlying areas back then went the home building route....nothing better than a seedless perfectly ripe California Naval orange!
Quoting 116. auburn:

Please remember: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

The conversation was rooted in why one party outright denies the overwhelming evidence that global warming is real and dangerous, directly on topic, but ok.
All that agricultural business in the San Joaquin Valley uses well water or purchased from state/water company. Believe there were lax rules on well use and still may be. Just about that whole valley is in a rain shadow area with less rain to it's east or west.....it wasnt such a problem with 10-20 million citizens but now at 40 million issues have risen........people making 1,000,000 find themselves in the 48% tax rate (fed and state), using deductions can get oneself lower, or get paid in dividends and pay 15% rate, so some of the wealthier folk are fleeing out their doors to states with no income tax
Tornado Warning in Collier County FL.
177. MahFL
0.03 in of rain so far in Orange Park.
Tornado Warning now for Monroe County, FL.
179. MahFL
Quoting 128. sar2401:

And both are watered primarily by flooding, the most inefficient irrigation method you can use. If California would mandate more efficient methods the water would go a lot further.


You can't mandate things in the Land of the Free......
180. MahFL
Quoting 161. Tampa969mlb:

It's safe to say AL gore uses more energy that probably 5 regular people on any given day.


I would imagine all millionaires do.
181. vis0

Quoting 163. 999Ai2016:

---Alert--- There seems to be a problem with human-generated political speech on this blog. I suggest using this brand new AI (actually upgraded from the stolen beta project "999AI2016") whenever needed:

Link / "Kassarnig performed an experiment where he created an artificial intelligence machine that learned how to write political speeches similar to real speeches and discussed the results.
As for his data source, the main source was the Convote data set, which contained 3857 speech segments from 53 US Congressional floor debates from the year 2005.
Results? "In an experimental evaluation our system performed very well. In particular, the grammatical correctness and the sentence transitions of most speeches were very good. However, there are no comparable systems which would allow a direct comparison."

Abstract :
In this report we present a system that can generate political speeches for a desired political party. Furthermore, the system allows to specify whether a speech should hold a supportive or opposing opinion. The system relies on a combination of several state-of-the-art NLP methods which are discussed in this report. These include n-grams, Justeson & Katz POS tag filter, recurrent neural networks, and latent Dirichlet allocation. Sequences of words are generated based on probabilities obtained from two underlying models: A language model takes care of the grammatical correctness while a topic model aims for textual consistency. Both models were trained on the Convote dataset which contains transcripts from US congressional floor debates. Furthermore, we present a manual and an automated approach to evaluate the quality of generated speeches. In an experimental evaluation generated speeches have shown very high quality in terms of grammatical correctness and sentence transitions.


       *click to enlarge takes you towards 2 pgs. 1st a bit bigger display with USE.com info, then another click on that img takes one to the largest-original size


uh needs some re re tweaking i think too much on the senate/house "floor" recording affected its choice of words (side-talk).
Strong positive AO in December with sharp change to negative AO in January correlates with large pattern shift we have seen over NA. Now AO turning positive again:

GFS does a good job in the 7-day forecast, but longer range skill drops off rapidly. In almost all cases the bias is towards zero, missing the sharper peaks. 15 day running mean fcst verification:

2015-2016 El Nino vs '97-'98: one difference is the larger effect of the so-called "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents" trend due to AGW, as reflected in the AO. Another difference is that it is unlikely we will see a rapid transition to La Nina, as another downwelling Kelvin wave is initiated,
--- Clap clap clap --- To vis0: Congratulations, this dialog was such vivid stuff! Watson First AI debate who could think of such a thing?
Quoting 161. Tampa969mlb:

It's safe to say AL gore uses more energy that probably 5 regular people on any given day.
Seriously? He does?! Well, that's certainly all the proof I need to settle the issue for me once and for all: Gore's electric bill is bigger than mine, so climate climate change isn't happening! Thanks ever so much for clearing that up with such a perspicacious observation!

;-)

The gauge at my place has picked up 1.06" since last night. It's just sprinkling now, but more looks to be on the way...
1.79" so far per a PWS just less than a mile from my house. Very impressive totals across the whole northernside of Orlando as everyone is in the 1.5" to 2" range already and this is expected to go on thru tomorrow. My total so far for January is now up to 6.13" WOW!!

More reloading off SW FL and heading NNE toward the West coast of FL.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL

7:17am EST, Wed Jan 27

... SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR BROWARD... PALM BEACH... NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND EASTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM EST...

* AT 717 AM EST... DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NEAR INDIANTOWN TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE REFUGE TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AROUND 50 MPH.

* IN ADDITION... GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES... AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS PASSED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIAMI... HIALEAH... FORT LAUDERDALE... PEMBROKE PINES... HOLLYWOOD... MIRAMAR... CORAL SPRINGS... WEST PALM BEACH... POMPANO BEACH... DAVIE... PLANTATION... SUNRISE... BOCA RATON... DEERFIELD BEACH... BOYNTON BEACH... DELRAY BEACH... TAMARAC... WELLINGTON... JUPITER AND MARGATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS... AND MAY LEAD TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE
Good Morning Folks. Here is the Conus forecast for today and current look across the board:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
The science for climate change only feeds the denial: how do you beat that?

As the scientific consensus for climate change has strengthened over the past decade, the arguments against the science of climate change have been on the increase.

That’s the surprise finding of a study, published in the journal Global Environmental Change last month, which analysed and identified the key themes in more than 16,000 publications about climate change by conservative organisations.

Conservative think-tanks are organisations that oppose policies, such as regulation of pollution caused by the fossil fuel industry (some have also opposed regulation of the tobacco industry in the past and, in fact, some continue to do so today).

One study found that from 1972 to 2005, over 92% of climate contrarian books originated from conservative think-tanks. They are often ground zero for misinformation casting doubt on climate science, with their messages spread by contrarian blogs, conservative media and politicians opposing climate policy.


Link
moderate rain but its coming down at an angle due to strong winds. its needed because if we go into a strong la nina it could dry up fast. e cen florida
High pressure dominates across most of Conus with most of the rain across the SE and Florida:



Southeast sector loop
Here in Fort Myers we picked up officially 1.59" this morning which puts us up to 9.67" for the month.
Expecting another round of rain later today.
It's weird radar is showing dark greens meaning should be light rain but it actually pouring here in Altamonte.
Rained from about midnight to 6:30 AM at my location in Tampa. I picked up 1.30" during this time, and it looks like more convection is firing up now in the Gulf. Some of the rain was heavy at times, but for the most part it was light to moderate. From what I can tell based on comments so far, most of us picked up about 1"-1.5" already overnight.

With the 1.30" I picked up last night, my January total is now 4.41".
Quoting 185. StormTrackerScott:

1.79" so far per a PWS just less than a mile from my house. Very impressive totals across the whole northernside of Orlando as everyone is in the 1.5" to 2" range already and this is expected to go on thru tomorrow. My total so far for January is now up to 6.13" WOW!!

More reloading off SW FL and heading NNE toward the West coast of FL.




So far 1.56" and will be interesting to see the final totals late tomorrow. Currently NAM has 1.19" max for my area and GFS has 2.92". Given the current totals is pretty clear that NAM under performed and GFS totals should quickly come to fruition between later today (~4PM) and tomorrow when the next round is expected to start (approximately).
Quoting 193. StormTrackerScott:

It's weird radar is showing dark greens meaning should be light rain but it actually pouring here in Altamonte.


I noticed that also Scott. Around 5 AM it was pouring at my house but the radar showed that the rain should be light. Strange.
Quoting 192. Sfloridacat5:

Here in Fort Myers we picked up officially 1.59" this morning which puts us up to 9.67" for the month.
Expecting another round of rain later today.


That next round is heading in north but it looks to come in just north of you initially. Now up 1.91" here in Longwood and its still coming down.
198. vis0

Quoting 160. sar2401:

His post was deleted, and almost no one would have known about it if you hadn't quoted it. We're shooting ourselves in that foot by doing that.
The only time i might reply to such a re re re re posted comment is as i did a few times last year, try it.  Every time a person repeats the same aGW $keptic$** line COPY the comment using a webpage capture like "Nimbus" or "Screengrab(fixed)". Save all captures of those re re posed comments, then after the 5th similar post reply by posting each captured comment with a new aGW headline or some scietific study disproving that repeated comment so readers can see, as::(text only example)

cap of help4u posts:: Al gore 10 years ago said Earth will burn

your reply:: Link with headline 2014 warmest year in recorded history.

cap of (3wks later) help4u posts:: Al gore 10 years ago said Earth will burn.

your reply:: Link with how more devastating storms are affecting the globe

cap of (7wks later) help4u posts:: Al gore 10 years ago said Earth will burn.

your reply:: Link with report of how insects are moving more poleward more than ever in man's recorded history


cap of (15wks later) help4u posts:: Al gore 10 years ago said Earth will burn.

your reply:: Link with headline 2015 warmest year in recorded history, beats a record set uh last year.

NOW there will be some years that are cooler than the previous year(s) but be ready to explain that on the entire curve (i use no less than 22 consecutive years) the Globe is warming, its just that some years not as fast as others

If help4u tries to do the same thing ...failure, why? cause every few months a new fresh study is showing the Globe is warming, that is why some keep quoting people's in the haste of the political moment comment from years ago.


Remember its not just you versus another members its others that come here to read this blog and if they see both sides throwing mud the get discouraged and when that happens those that prefer people not to learn, are happy.
Sure i have some 1 liners but i post them on my blog where no one sees them.
----------------------------
-----------------------------
**(NOT REAL questions as to any  new original find that might truly prove otherwise as in aGw not real... not many of those recently last was in 1990ish as to sun activity /  ice ages, but taking reading/samples of  Earth - nature and mans continued polluting showed that scientific study, was incorrect)
Quoting 193. StormTrackerScott:

It's weird radar is showing dark greens meaning should be light rain but it actually pouring here in Altamonte.


Look at the TDWR radar @ MCO, it will reveal that these are low top moderate to heavy showers and there's actually higher echo returns on TDWR than the NEXRAD from MLB/TBW which are coming in at a higher angle and missing it.
Special Statement
Statement as of 7:44 AM EST on January 27, 2016

... Significant weather advisory for St. Lucie... Martin and eastern
Indian River counties until 815 am EST...

At 743 am EST... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saint Lucie west... or 7 miles west of White City... moving northeast
at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie... Walton... Fort Pierce... Sebastian and Stuart.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The primary threats will be cloud to ground lightning and strong wind
gusts... which can cause unsecured objects to blow around... snap tree
limbs... cause power outages or capsize small boats. Heavy rainfall
will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the
storm passes.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm... which will reduce
visibility and may lead to temporary flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.


Lat... Lon 2697 8058 2782 8060 2783 8048 2766 8038
2767 8038 2768 8037 2779 8044 2779 8042
2784 8044 2783 8043 2719 8016 2717 8026
2716 8018 2717 8018 2699 8009 2698 8009
2696 8015 2696 8058
time... Mot... loc 1243z 243deg 27kt 2738 8046
And finally the forecast high temps for today across the US: have to see how daytime heating later today might give a punch to the rain/t-storms over Florida:
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Quoting 194. tampabaymatt:

Rained from about midnight to 6:30 AM at my location in Tampa. I picked up 1.30" during this time, and it looks like more convection is firing up now in the Gulf. Some of the rain was heavy at times, but for the most part it was light to moderate. From what I can tell based on comments so far, most of us picked up about 1"-1.5" already overnight.

With the 1.30" I picked up last night, my January total is now 4.41".


Northernside of Orlando everyone is in the 1.5" to 2.0" range already! Strange as Leesburg which you would think would have lighter totals based on where the heaviest cells went is actually over 2" now. It appears there is some sort of boundary lying from just north of Tampa extending to the northernside of Orlando as this moisture is really getting rung out.
Now pretty much as of 8am nearly the whole Orlando Metro is around 2" and its still coming down very hard. Contrary to what the radar is saying its pouring!

Link
Quoting 197. StormTrackerScott:



That next round is heading in north but it looks to come in just north of you initially. Now up 1.91" here in Longwood and its still coming down.


I'm talking about much later today. Local mets are showing another line of heavy to possibly severe storms moving through the area later (3-5 pm) this afternoon. We'll see if it materializes.
Next round of rain is gearing up and getting ready to plow into the Tampa Bay area

The convective outlook from SPC for Florida is marginal and storm-wind reports will not be posted unless some of the cells today can generate wind gusts over 65 knots or otherwise cause some straight line wind damage.............

last3hours Reports Graphic

Well this next storm coming out of the west could be heck of a storm for me and the south. The gfs is predicting 12-18 inches for me although this is the gfs and this is a week out but still. For the south the spc has issued a day 7 outlook which are extremely rare. Keep in mind thought that this is a week out.
HRRR keeps rain coming into central and southwest Florida until tomorrow.
Only .33" more to break the 10" mark for the month here.
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:

HRRR keeps rain coming into central and southwest Florida until tomorrow.
Only .33" more to break the 10" mark for the month here.


You sure got quite a bit rain there this month. :)
Australia : Flash floods, hail and damage as wild weather batters Geelong, News.com.au, on January 27 2016 /
Link /
"A freak thunderstorm has ripped through Geelong as emergency crews work to clear the aftermath. According to Bureau of Meteorology, Avalon received 62.2mm of rain in one hour, double the month's average. 53.8mm of it fell within 30 minutes. BOM described the afternoon's rainfall as "equivalent to a one in one hundred year event". While the rain has slowed, emergency services are responding to multiple calls for assistance for flooding, property damage, people trapped in cars and fires."
------------
Australia : Tasmanian bushfires rage along coast, forcing residents to relocate, The Guardian / Link /
"About 150 residents from small centres in Tasmania's north-west had to take shelter on the beach on Wednesday morning as bushfires raged along the coast ((They were evacuated later by boat)). The Tasmania fire service was yet to confirm any damage to property but, from the early hours of Wednesday, had urged the evacuation of Arthur River, Nelson Bay and Temma. But with roads to the nearby evacuation centre blocked, people sought refuge at the beach. "We've got 24 fire crews currently in there, we've got aircraft actively water-bombing," the Tasmania fire service's deputy chief, Jeremy Smith, told ABC TV. The fire was "high risk" and subsequent smoke and ash would make it difficult to see and breathe, he said. "This is just one of many fires across the state." Dry lightning strikes two weeks ago sparked more than 70 fires across Tasmania and authorities have since turned to interstate and New Zealand agencies for help. Weather conditions are forecast to ease with some rainfall on the way but Smith said the challenge was still huge. "There will be a number of weeks of hard slog [for] remote area crews," he said."

There's always some kind of crazy extreme weather event or several occurring at the same time in Australia. I know it's a continent, but still...
It's actually (which is a good thing) a relatively quiet day weather wise for the US with the exception of the ultimate rain totals for Florida, snow in the Upper Mid-West, and the rain in the extreme Pacific NW Region in the absence of any intense winter lows at the moment; nice to see the rest of the Nation get a little break from the recent winter storm.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Wed Jan 27 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 27 2016 - 12Z Fri Jan 29 2016

...Locally heavy rain possible for portions of central/south Florida...

...Rain and snow possible for portions of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic,
and Northeast...

...Heavy precipitation possible for the Pacific Northwest coast...

Portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast will have rain and a few
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the eastern U.S. Central and
southern Florida could potentially have periods of intense rainfall that
yields 1 to 2 inches, or possibly higher amounts. Flash Flooding may be
occur in this region. A mix of rain and snow is expected for portions of
the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast along the northern flank of the front.
Snow amounts will be relatively light. Conditions will be favorable for
lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario so accumulations up to 8 inches
will be possible.

The Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region will have widespread snow as cold air
surges in from Canada. Minnesota and Wisconsin may have a mix of rain,
freezing rain and snow as the airmass transitions. The highest snow
amounts of 8 to 12 inches are expected across northeast Minnesota, Lake
Superior and northern Michigan.

The Great Plains will be mostly warm and dry as high pressure builds of
the region. Areas east of the Front Range will have a warming trend over
the next few days.

The northwest states will be cool and wet in an active pattern through
Thursday. Widespread precipitation is expected from the Pacific Northwest
Coast to the western Montana/Wyoming. Coastal areas will likely receive
several inches of rainfall, with heavy snow possible at higher elevations.
Accumulations up to a foot of snow will be possible in the Washington
Cascades, with 1 to 2 feet possible for the Beartooths/Tetons and Salmon
River and Sawtooth Ranges. Locally higher amounts of both rain and snow
are also possible.

Quoting 161. Tampa969mlb:

It's safe to say AL gore uses more energy that probably 5 regular people on any given day.


It's safe to say that this has absolutely nothing to do with climate science, even if it were true.
215. vis0
Quoting 161. Tampa969mlb:

It's safe to say AL gore uses more energy that probably 5 regular people on any given day.
Quoting 180. MahFL:



I would imagine all millionaires do.
ANNOUNCER whispers:: the magic word is misuse. (sorry Grothar no duck comes down from studio ceiling)

If Tampa969mlb took a jet plane to Europe to a conference that had 3,000 people that came to hear Tampa969mlb speak of how global warming is damaging the planet (relax Tampa969mlb breath into a paper bag its just a comparison) and of those 3,000 people 2,000 understood by reading years of studies that aGw was damaging the Globe, 800 were not sure and 200 did not think so.
Then at the end of the conference those numbers respectively are 2,300,...

(wait busy using my toes to count ...carry the little piggy, whats the big bad wolf doing hear oh wait its a corn...someone get me some butter!)

...600 not sure and 100 don't think so, i think that use of fuel was well USED and till a new method of travel that can get a spokesperson from point A to point B is invented then a Jet has to be used, what use a row boat?

Now if Tampa969mlb or when i see a politician retired or still active take jet to go  to play golf at 2 different golf courses in a day or 2, misuse.

BTW, try not to just find those people in just one party, both sides do this though by what records i've seen more that do not believe aGW is real, do this more often.


oh and you and i spend 10 times more energy than a homeless person (my goodness forgive me for using a person in need in this zilly)

...again use vs. misuse
216. vis0

Quoting 202. StormTrackerScott:



Northernside of Orlando everyone is in the 1.5" to 2.0" range already! Strange as Leesburg which you would think would have lighter totals based on where the heaviest cells went is actually over 2" now. It appears there is some sort of boundary lying from just north of Tampa extending to the northernside of Orlando as this moisture is really getting rung out.
Noticed that "moisture is really getting rung out." this morning to my surprise, now watching if the next area West of Florida (south of Alabama by hundred miles) joins up/fills in or stay relatively lite.  If it joins up will that center of GOM LOW stall the flow northward? Asking all that have an opinion.
Quoting 179. MahFL:



You can't mandate things in the Land of the Free......


This is a statement of pure selfishness and stupidity. Would you be fine with companies dumping toxic waste in your water supply? Or how about your next door neighbor burning trash and tires? Or how about a nice unfiltered paper mill/coal plant opening directly upwind of you?

Freedom doesn't mean you can do whatever the hell you want just because you want to.
Okay so it snowed in China. Meh!?
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
east central Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* until 915 am EST

* at 849 am EST... severe thunderstorms capable of producing both
tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located near
Atlantis... or near Boynton Beach... moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hazard... tornado.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Boynton Beach... Lake Worth... Palm Beach and
Greenacres.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors... in a
Mobile home... or in a vehicle... move to the closest substantial
shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.
You Can Blame El Niño for the Massive Floods in South America

Concordia lies on the Uruguay River in the low-lying province of Entre Ríos that has been particularly badly hit in the unseasonal floods that the Argentine branch of the Red Cross has described as "the worst in history."...................................... "In two months it rained between 700-800ml. That is 400ml more than the norm," meteorologist Cindy Fernández from the National Meteorology Service in Argentina told VICE News, linking the high El Niño directly to rainfall in the country. "Several records have been broken, including the one for the most rain in 24 hours, with 215ml. The old record was 90."

It was the rise in the level of the Uruguay River and its tributaries that brought disaster to Concordia at the end of December. The town of around 100,000 usually sees its heaviest rainfall after March and had never experienced anything like this.


Link
"Five people died and more than 100 were injured Sunday as a cold air mass gripped Japan, with record-breaking heavy snowfall in western and central areas of the country. The weather forced airlines to cancel many flights and West Japan Railway Co to reduce the speed of bullet trains on sections of the Sanyo Shinkansen lines. The blanket of snow reached as far as southwestern Japanese cities such as Nagasaki and Kagoshima. On Kyushu island, Nagasaki saw a record 17 centimeters of snow, Kagoshima 11 cm and Saga 7 cm, the Japan Meteorological Agency said. Amami Island, a subtropical island located some 380 kilometers southwest of Kagoshima City, observed snowfall for the first time in 115 years. The temperature in Kunigami in subtropical Okinawa Prefecture dropped to a record-low 3.9 C at 8 p.m. Sunday. The mercury stayed below freezing in Fukuoka, Kumamoto and other cities in the Kyushu region throughout the day."
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:

HRRR keeps rain coming into central and southwest Florida until tomorrow.
Only .33" more to break the 10" mark for the month here.


The HRRR is also consistently keeping the heaviest of rain totals south of Tampa Bay for the remainder of today. So far that hasn't been the case as it seems like most of C FL southward is around 1.5" or more already today.
Quoting 222. tampabaymatt:



The HRRR is also consistently keeping the heaviest of rain totals south of Tampa Bay for the remainder of today. So far that hasn't been the case as it seems like most of C FL southward is around 1.5" or more already today.


2.03" @ my place so far. Infact everyone is around 2" here in Orlando as nearly all the reporting stations are reporting that except OIA. Needless to say all the ditches here are full of water.
Quoting 212. 999Ai2016:

Australia : Flash floods, hail and damage as wild weather batters Geelong, News.com.au, on January 27 2016 /
Link /
"A freak thunderstorm has ripped through Geelong as emergency crews work to clear the aftermath. According to Bureau of Meteorology, Avalon received 62.2mm of rain in one hour, double the month's average. 53.8mm of it fell within 30 minutes. BOM described the afternoon's rainfall as "equivalent to a one in one hundred year event". While the rain has slowed, emergency services are responding to multiple calls for assistance for flooding, property damage, people trapped in cars and fires."
------------
Australia : Tasmanian bushfires rage along coast, forcing residents to relocate, The Guardian / Link /
"About 150 residents from small centres in Tasmania's north-west had to take shelter on the beach on Wednesday morning as bushfires raged along the coast ((They were evacuated later by boat)). The Tasmania fire service was yet to confirm any damage to property but, from the early hours of Wednesday, had urged the evacuation of Arthur River, Nelson Bay and Temma. But with roads to the nearby evacuation centre blocked, people sought refuge at the beach. "We've got 24 fire crews currently in there, we've got aircraft actively water-bombing," the Tasmania fire service's deputy chief, Jeremy Smith, told ABC TV. The fire was "high risk" and subsequent smoke and ash would make it difficult to see and breathe, he said. "This is just one of many fires across the state." Dry lightning strikes two weeks ago sparked more than 70 fires across Tasmania and authorities have since turned to interstate and New Zealand agencies for help. Weather conditions are forecast to ease with some rainfall on the way but Smith said the challenge was still huge. "There will be a number of weeks of hard slog [for] remote area crews," he said."

There's always some kind of crazy extreme weather event or several occurring at the same time in Australia. I know it's a continent, but still...
For all its beauty, one never hears to much about how dangerous it is . Loaded with poisonous critters ( the most poisonous on Earth ) and the outback is extremely dangerous. Probably why for such a big place, only 22 million live there..:) Steve Irwin, who was from Australia, and knew the region well, lost his life off of Queensland on the Great Barrier Reef..Peace to him.
.
Quoting 217. Xyrus2000:



This is a statement of pure selfishness and stupidity. Would you be fine with companies dumping toxic waste in your water supply? Or how about your next door neighbor burning trash and tires? Or how about a nice unfiltered paper mill/coal plant opening directly upwind of you?

Freedom doesn't mean you can do whatever the hell you want just because you want to.
Good morning Xyrus..I have seen the worst pollution and toxic waste dumps in the U.S., although it was many years ago...It really did remind me of what hell would be like. The worst of all that I saw was in Eastern Detroit, Boston, Newark, and one site outside of Norfolk..If I had to pick, Detroit was the worst. Hard to describe in words.
Good morning

A thanks to Geoffrey today. I just happened to log in here while speaking with my coworker in Greenacres, when Geoffrey posted the tornado warning at the same time. Needless to say, it was passed on to her and I am now awaiting a phone call to continue our business!

Thanks again!

Lindy
The crocodile hunter! he was famous all over the world in the 90's. I've seen him on TV, he was great. I didn't know about his death, Peace to him.
Good morning guys
Quoting 214. Xyrus2000:



It's safe to say that this has absolutely nothing to do with climate science, even if it were true.



but of course...it's truth wrapped in deception......the fact was true that gore spent more on electricity than the average house...however...when you found out...that his house was five times the size of the average house...and when you found out that he spent 25 percent more on his bill to get power from natural sources such as solar....his actual footprint was less per square feet than the average house....but even if the statement was true in all senses...would it mean the planet wasn't warming???????
Quoting 227. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

A thanks to Geoffrey today. I just happened to log in here while speaking with my coworker in Greenacres, when Geoffrey posted the tornado warning at the same time. Needless to say, it was passed on to her and I am now awaiting a phone call to continue our business!

Thanks again!

Lindy


may i suggest you set up your cell phone for emergency alerts......while i'm not discrediting geofrey for his post...it was posted 5 minutes after its issuance and you yourself describe that you were fortunate to see it....if you were to rely on this blog for your emergency warnings...you set yourself up for dissaster
233. MahFL
Quoting 217. Xyrus2000:



This is a statement of pure selfishness and stupidity. Would you be fine with companies dumping toxic waste in your water supply? Or how about your next door neighbor burning trash and tires? Or how about a nice unfiltered paper mill/coal plant opening directly upwind of you?

Freedom doesn't mean you can do whatever the hell you want just because you want to.


It was said tongue in cheek. Some things though should not be mandated, eg the right to non aggressive free speech, as provided in the USA's First Amendment.
Quoting 182. guygee:

Strong positive AO in December with sharp change to negative AO in January correlates with large pattern shift we have seen over NA. Now AO turning positive again:

GFS does a good job in the 7-day forecast, but longer range skill drops off rapidly. In almost all cases the bias is towards zero, missing the sharper peaks. 15 day running mean fcst verification:

2015-2016 El Nino vs '97-'98: one difference is the larger effect of the so-called "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents" trend due to AGO, as reflected in the AO. Another difference is that it is unlikely we will see a rapid transition to La Nina, as another downwelling Kelvin wave is initiated,

Hi, did you also notice the warmest water temps are setting up in the Central Pacific, as opposed to the East Pacific like 97/98. This Nino is nothing like 97/98, and will be gone come late spring/ early summer. Full blown Nina by late summer.
I'm beginning to wonder where the rains expected for the southern coast went. So far we are behind again along the South coast.
236. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA went up another 1% yesterday. More rain/snow is forecast for CA Thursday through Sunday.

48% of Total Capacity
72% of Historical Avg. For This Date

Quoting 234. NativeSun:

Hi, did you also notice the warmest water temps are setting up in the Central Pacific, as opposed to the East Pacific like 97/98. This Nina is nothing like 97/98, and will be gone come late spring/ early summer. Full blown Nina by late summer.


you're jumping in with both feet for super la nina...LOL....good luck.....i will show you this...the latest cfsv2.....if you look at the blue graphs....which is the latest 8 model runs...they're trending way below the median...look for the cfsv2 median to drop if this continues......





Quoting 233. MahFL:



It was said tongue in cheek. Some things though should not be mandated, eg the right to non aggressive free speech, as provided in the USA's First Amendment.
What? The right to free speech is mandated by the Constitution, subject to interpretation by the Supreme Court. Free speech by its nature can be and often is aggressive. It's not allowed to threaten violence without sanction however. Did you ever take a Constitutional law class?
Quoting 229. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys
Good morning, WKC. How are things down in the Caymans today?
Quoting 228. 999Ai2016:

The crocodile hunter! he was famous all over the world in the 90's. I've seen him on TV, he was great. I didn't know about his death, Peace to him.
He died in 2006. You've got to keep up better in the future. :-)
Interesting to see a tornado warning on the Florida East coast; the current frontal passage is primarily a rain event squeezed out from the moisture in the Gulf but a big tornado threat was/is not in the current forecast. Have to see how the rest of the day unfolds in terms of dynamics and some balloon soundings will probably help later today. If we start to see some tornado initiating activity on the West Coast/Central Florida closer to the leading edge of the front later today, we would have to see whether any actual watches might be posted. The current one is basically a strong cell that produced it but not an organized event (thus far).






 

due to the spread of the Zeke virus australia outback might become a safer place to live than north america
Greenacres here also. It was pretty rough out for a little while. Got caught in a 60mph wind gust earlier. Hopefully no more tornado warnings today!
Quoting 227. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

A thanks to Geoffrey today. I just happened to log in here while speaking with my coworker in Greenacres, when Geoffrey posted the tornado warning at the same time. Needless to say, it was passed on to her and I am now awaiting a phone call to continue our business!

Thanks again!

Lindy
Quoting 173. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The conversation was rooted in why one party outright denies the overwhelming evidence that global warming is real and dangerous, directly on topic, but ok.
We can't allow damaging controversy here as we head into what's arguably the most important elections for the future of what the DOD says is a threat to the security of our country. The following, however, are fair game, assuming that they aren't in any way related to any identifiable politicians or parties;

1. Fog

2. Cherry blossoms

3. Unicorns
Quoting 244. sar2401:

We can't allow damaging controversy here as we head into what's arguably the most important elections for the future of what the DOD says is a threat to the security of our country. The following, however, are fair game, assuming that they aren't in any way related to any identifiable politicians or parties;

1. Fog

2. Cherry blossoms

3. Unicorns


Don't forget pictures of dragons, dinosaurs, and hydra.
Quoting 234. NativeSun:

Hi, did you also notice the warmest water temps are setting up in the Central Pacific, as opposed to the East Pacific like 97/98. This Nino is nothing like 97/98, and will be gone come late spring/ early summer. Full blown Nina by late summer.


Yeah good luck with that kiddo!

Quoting 241. weathermanwannabe:

Interesting to see a tornado warning on the Florida East coast; the current frontal passage is primarily a rain event squeezed out from the moisture in the Gulf but a big tornado threat was/is not in the current forecast. Have to see how the rest of the day unfolds in terms of dynamics and some balloon soundings will probably help later today. If we start to see some tornado initiating activity on the West Coast/Central Florida closer to the leading edge of the front later today, we would have to see whether any actual watches might be posted. The current one is basically a strong cell that produced it but not an organized event (thus far).






 


The rain in SE Alabama started about 0330. Well, it wasn't exactly rain. More like quasi-rain. Actually, more like drizzle. The last of the line is going through now. So far, I've had...let me check to get the most current total...yep, still a trace. As usual, Florida can have tornadoes while everyone has nothing. Kind of like its own world sometimes.
Quoting 245. tampabaymatt:



Don't forget pictures of dragons, dinosaurs, and hydra.
Not to mention monomaniacally repeated 10 or 12 times a day. No rules against that either.
Quoting 237. ricderr:



you're jumping in with both feet for super la nina...LOL....good luck.....i will show you this...the latest cfsv2.....if you look at the blue graphs....which is the latest 8 model runs...they're trending way below the median...look for the cfsv2 median to drop if this continues......








I'll give him neutral but super La-Nina?
Ok, I believe that global warming most likely is occurring even though there is a limited amount of historical data to be 100% sure. And I really think with the rapid advance of technology we will have no problem reversing it in the next 30 years. Is what drives me crazy is how if you say anything against gw you get hammered with negative posts. At the same time most everyone is still using tons of electricity, buying products from China, one of the biggest polluters on the planet kinda like saying your a vegan and going home and eating steaks. If you want to read up on something really scary, check out the coming technolical singularly. .now that's right around the corner and if true very scary..
Quoting 216. vis0:


Noticed that "moisture is really getting rung out." this morning to my surprise, now watching if the next area West of Florida (south of Alabama by hundred miles) joins up/fills in or stay relatively lite.  If it joins up will that center of GOM LOW stall the flow northward? Asking all that have an opinion.



Euro more notably shows another low forming in the Central Gulf today and moving across C FL tomorrow. With the rain that has already fallen it appears the area is headed for a 4" to 5" storm total.
Good morning :)

Well... the weather is very hazy today. We are not accustomed with so much african dust so early in the year. El Nino still does its job...





Quoting 150. help4u:

Another amazing thing in less than one hour ALGORE prediction of the earth burning up will pass!Made 10 years ago!Boy that was close.


Post a link with Gore predicting that Earth would "burn up" by today. In a recent comment, you claimed that an article in the New York Times in 2014 stated that there would be an end to snow along the eastern coast of the US, but you didn't share the link after I requested it.
Quoting 217. Xyrus2000:



This is a statement of pure selfishness and stupidity. Would you be fine with companies dumping toxic waste in your water supply? Or how about your next door neighbor burning trash and tires? Or how about a nice unfiltered paper mill/coal plant opening directly upwind of you?

Freedom doesn't mean you can do whatever the hell you want just because you want to.


Indeed, those who have never served anything but their self in life will always believe that BS.
Quoting 246. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah good luck with that kiddo!




Imagine that's a modoki in the making...
Quoting 254. DCSwithunderscores:



Post a link with Gore predicting that Earth would "burn up" by today. In a recent comment, you claimed that an article in the New York Times in 2014 stated that there would be an end to snow along the eastern coast of the US, but you didn't share the link after I requested it.

AFLAC!!!
Quoting 251. Tampa969mlb:



Hal 9000!! AFLAC!!
Local news is showing trees blown down over in Broward Co. on the east coast from an apparent tornado.
Quoting 251. Tampa969mlb:

Ok, I believe that global warming most likely is occurring even though there is a limited amount of historical data to be 100% sure.
It seems your definition of "limited" differs greatly from that used by climate scientists. At this point, there's as much scientific certainty behind AGW as there is behind gravity, and denying the existence of either is roughly equivalent.
Quoting 251. Tampa969mlb:

And I really think with the rapid advance of technology we will have no problem reversing it in the next 30 years.
You may be right--but keep in mind that that same "rapid advance of technology" got us where we are in the first place.
Quoting 251. Tampa969mlb:

Is what drives me crazy is how if you say anything against gw you get hammered with negative posts...
I don't see anyone get "hammered"; I only see opinions based on ideology or ignorance questioned. And those posts aren't necessarily negative; they mostly just ask for supporting information behind those opinions.
Quoting 251. Tampa969mlb:

At the same time most everyone is still using tons of electricity, buying products from China, one of the biggest polluters on the planet kinda like saying your a vegan and going home and eating steaks.
The fact that supporters use electricity in no way invalidates solid science. That's kinda like saying that because birds and airplanes fly, gravity doesn't exist. Sill, you know?
Quoting 251. Tampa969mlb:

If you want to read up on something really scary, check out the coming technolical singularly. .now that's right around the corner and if true very scary..
Maybe. But the threat of the certain disruption/destruction of society posed by climate change is far more "scary" to me than a hypothetical event for which there is yet no evidence and which, even if true, is far easier to avoid.
The most scary thing out there in the world is actually human ignorance.............................
Quoting 261. weathermanwannabe:

The most scary thing out there in the world is actually human ignorance.............................
In 50-49 vote, US Senate says climate change not caused by humans

By Sean Cockerham, McClatchy Washington Bureau
Posted Jan. 22, 2015, at 6:59 a.m.
Last modified Jan. 26, 2016, at 12:37 p.m.

WASHINGTON The Senate rejected the scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change, days after NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared 2014 the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.

The Republican-controlled Senate defeated a measure Wednesday stating that climate change is real and that human activity significantly contributes to it. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, offered the measure as the Senate debated the Keystone XL pipeline, which would tap the carbon-intensive oil sands in the Canadian province of Alberta.

The Senate voted 50-49 on the measure, which required 60 votes in order to pass.

Only in the halls of Congress is this a controversial piece of legislation, Schatz said.

The chairman of the environment committee, Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., is an enthusiastic denier of climate change, saying it is the biggest hoax perpetrated against mankind.

The hoax is there are some people so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change the climate,Inhofe said Wednesday on the Senate floor. Man can't change the climate.

The Senate, with Inhofe's support, did pass a separate measure saying that climate change is real just not that human activity is a cause. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., was the only senator to vote against it.

The Democrats pushed for the climate change votes as an attempt to get Republicans on the record in advance of the 2016 elections, with polls showing that a majority of Americans believe humans are causing global warming. The votes were offered as non-binding amendments to the bill authorizing construction of Keystone.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, urged her colleagues to vote against the finding that climate change is significantly caused by humans.

Murkowski, chairwoman of the energy committee, has expressed worries about the impact of climate change on her state. But she said on the Senate floor that the fact the measure included the word significantl was enough to merit voting against it.

Some Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have dodged the issue of whether humans are causing climate change, often using the talking point that I'm not a scientist.

President Barack Obama mocked the I'm not a scientist line in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night.

Well, I'm not a scientist, either. But you know what? I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities Obama said.

Scientists from NASA and NOAA announced last week that 2014 was the hottest year on record, continuing a warming trend that the scientists attributed to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

Just five Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, joined the Democrats on Wednesday in voting for the finding that human activity significantly contributes to climate change.

Graham said he's not a scientist, but that he has heard enough from scientists on the issue to be convinced.

He rejected Democratic arguments that approving the Keystone XL pipeline would worsen climate change, though, maintaining that the Canadian oil sands are going to be developed even if the pipeline is not built.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC

Quoting 115. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It would take all the water in Shasta Lake to water the current crops of almonds/pistaccios.....just amazing! Shasta Lake holds like 4 million acre feet when full . Nuts and Alfalfa are the biggest users.




Alfalfa's what you grow when your soil's too alkaline and salty to support any other crop. The way it works here - farmers can get 3 to 5 years of harvest out of a single seeding (my main hay guy Abe at abeshaynfeed.com has some fields, he said, that with using soil microorganism supplements have stayed productive for up to a decade), feed livestock or sell to local dairies and beef ranches, then in the winter have their own or other ranch's cattle range over the fields, help re-fertilize and keep weed growth down. The water is irrigation from Truckee-Carson Irrigation District, and the flooding of the fields not only grows the alfalfa but keeps the ground water recharged. There are a few places grown organically, we've also got the dry milk plant in town, it's frustrating to hear the uninformed blast alfalfa growth when around here, there's not a whole lot else can be grown without shooting crazy fertilizer chemistry into the dirt.
Quoting 251. Tampa969mlb:

Ok, I believe that global warming most likely is occurring even though there is a limited amount of historical data to be 100% sure. And I really think with the rapid advance of technology we will have no problem reversing it in the next 30 years. Is what drives me crazy is how if you say anything against gw you get hammered with negative posts. At the same time most everyone is still using tons of electricity, buying products from China, one of the biggest polluters on the planet kinda like saying your a vegan and going home and eating steaks. If you want to read up on something really scary, check out the coming technolical singularly. .now that's right around the corner and if true very scary..
That is not true..Most here just want the facts and the data. If you have evidence that shows pollution has had no affect on the atmosphere, then post it, and makes sure your data can be verified. What drives me crazy is when comments say the Earths climate is not warming, when there is scientific proof that is is. Determining with pinpoint accuracy how much the human race is responsible for will not be easy, but will be determined soon.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 259. Sfloridacat5:

Local news is showing trees blown down over in Broward Co. on the east coast from an apparent tornado.
The winds were howling where I live in Lauderdale by the Sea
268. vis0

Quoting 257. sar2401:


AFLAC!!!
look a unicorn in gooses clothing...on the weather front those in Florida stay tuned (noa radio or cell phone alert) as to the rains we see approaching Florida from the W / SW / ~S, oops new blog up
Quoting 237. ricderr:



you're jumping in with both feet for super la nina...LOL....good luck.....i will show you this...the latest cfsv2.....if you look at the blue graphs....which is the latest 8 model runs...they're trending way below the median...look for the cfsv2 median to drop if this continues......






Yes Rick, I am hoping for a Nina. It's been 2 years with this Nino, and the Eastern Pacific is cooling, while the Central Pacific is warming, also most of the better models are starting to show a Nina coming this summer. A Nina would also help with a more active hurricane season, which we could all use. Just like with our Nino forecasters, if it doesn't happen this year, we will have one in 2017.
Quoting 261. weathermanwannabe:

The most scary thing out there in the world is actually human ignorance.............................
Nothing new there, it has been and always will be .
Could this be the greatest polar outbreak since either the 1899 or 1962 western Hemisphere events?