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Colossal Nor’easter Dumps Record Snow from Maryland to New York

By: Bob Henson 6:23 PM GMT on January 24, 2016

A ferocious, long-lasting winter storm took its parting swipes at the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday night, leaving in its wake a pile of snowbound cities and shattered records. Millions of people in the nation’s most densely populated urban corridor saw snowfall amounts that matched or exceeded the largest amounts observed in more than a hundred years of recordkeeping. It’s surprisingly difficult to measure snow in an accurate and consistent way, so you should keep a mental asterisk pinned to the statistics you’ll be seeing. Nevertheless, there is no question that this nor’easter, dubbed Winter Storm Jonas by the Weather Channel, was one for the ages--among the most powerful and far-reaching in regional history.


Figure 1. A woman walks down a snow-covered street in Brooklyn on Sunday morning, January 24, 2016. Most of New York City’s streets were cleaned up overnight after a huge snow storm slammed into the Mid-Atlantic states. Image credit: Michael Heiman/Getty Images.


Figure 2. Estimated snowfall totals from Winter Storm Jonas for the period Jan. 21-23, 2016. Image credit: The Weather Channel.

A sheaf of 24-hour and storm-total records
Even as the last flakes were flying on Saturday night, a number of sites with century-plus weather histories had already notched the most snowfall ever recorded for a single storm, and/or the most ever measured in a 24-hour period. Here’s a sample of preliminary data through Sunday morning. (Thanks to Alex Lamers, NWS/Tallahassee, for digging up some hard-to-find data on previous record storm totals in the NYC area). Note that the readings below generally pertain to snowfall measurements taken during the storm and added together, with a snow measuring board (snowboard) cleared off between each reading. The final snow depth, or the amount you’d measure by sticking a ruler (or yardstick) in the snow at the end of the storm, would normally be a bit less than the amounts shown below, because of the more recent snow on top compressing the lower, earlier layers. Decades ago, snowboards were used less frequently or were cleared less often when used, which means that some past storms would yield higher snow totals if measured with today’s standard techniques.

New York, NY (Central Park)
--Calendar-day total: 26.6” (old record 24.1” on Feb. 12, 2006)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 26.8” (record 26.9” on Feb. 11-12, 2006)

New York, NY (LaGuardia)
--Calendar-day total: 27.9” (old record 23.3” on Feb. 12, 2006)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 27.9” (old record 25.4” on Feb. 11-12, 2006)

New York, NY (Kennedy):
--Calendar-day total: 30.3” (old record 24.1” on Feb. 12, 2006)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 30.5” (old record 26.8” on Feb. 16-18 2003)

Newark, NJ:
--Calendar-day total: 27.5” (old record 25.9” on Dec. 26, 1947)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 27.9” (old record 27.8” on Jan. 7-8, 1996)

Allentown, PA
--Calendar-day total: 30.2” (old record 24.0” on Feb. 11, 1983)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 31.9” (old record 25.6” on Jan. 7-8, 1996)

Harrisburg, PA
--Calendar-day total: 26.4” (old record 24.0” on Feb. 11, 1983)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 30.2” (old record 25.0” on Feb. 12-13, 1983)

Philadelphia, PA:
--Calendar-day total: 19.4” (record 27.6 on Jan. 7, 1996)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 22.4” (record 31.0” on Jan. 6-8, 1996)

Baltimore, MD (Baltimore-Washington Airport and earlier sites):
--Calendar-day total: 25.5” (old record 23.3” on Jan. 28, 1922)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 29.2” (old record 26.8” on Feb. 16-18, 2003)

Washington, DC (Dulles)
--Calendar-day total: 22.1” (record 22.5” on Feb. 11, 1983)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 29.3” (record 32.4” on Feb. 5-6, 2010)

Washington, DC (National Airport and earlier sites):
--Calendar-day total: 11.3” (record 21.0” on Jan. 28, 1922)
--Storm total thru Sun. AM: 17.8” (record 28.0” on Jan. 27-29, 1922)

How widespread was the snow?
--This was the first storm on record to dump at least 24” of snow in both Baltimore and New York City, according to weather.com.
--At least one location in all 21 New Jersey counties received at least 12” of snow.
--Snowflakes fell as far south as the Florida Panhandle on Friday night, and more than a foot of snow fell as far north as Massachusetts, giving this remarkable storm a north-to-south reach reminiscent of the even-more-sprawling Storm of the Century in March 1993.

Controversy in Washington, snowfall-style
As noted by Capital Weather Gang’s Angela Fritz, the readings at Washington National through Saturday evening struck many as being oddly low compared to neighboring reports, especially toward the north and west. The NWS plans to review the DCA snow reports, which were gathered by contractors for the FAA, a common practice at many airport locations. In a follow-up story on Sunday, Capital Weather Gang reported that the contractors at DCA had improvised and interpolated from snow-depth measurements after the on-site snowboard could not be found beneath the snow.

The WU almanac for Saturday at DCA shows that at 4:52 pm ET, Washington National reported 18” of snow on ground (rounded to the nearest inch), with 1” having fallen in the previous hour. Snow continued at DCA through midnight; however, the visibility jumped from just 1/16 mile at 4:52 pm to much higher values after that point (1/2 mile at 5:39 pm, and 1.75 mile at 6:49 pm), which is consistent with snowfall becoming much lighter.

On Sunday morning, CoCoRaHS reports of snowfall on the ground were all 20” or greater in the District and the adjoining western and northern suburban counties of Fairfax County, VA, and Montgomery County, MD. In the District itself, a snow depth of 22” was reported at the White House CoCoRaHS station, about 4 miles north of the airport and the closest station to DCA that filed a report on Sunday morning. Amounts were substantially lower just east and south of the District, in Prince George’s County, MD, and beyond, although very few of these were close to DCA. A snow-depth report of 16” came in from the vicinity of Fort Washington, about 8 miles south of DCA. To me, the CoCoRaHS data on snow depth imply that the DCA observations of total snowfall could be slightly on the low side but not too far out of line. It will be fascinating to see what the NWS concludes. Perhaps the bigger question is whether reports from DCA should be considered representative of the District, given that snowfalls are often significantly heavier as you go north and west.


Figure 3. Residents in Harrisonburg, Virginia, take to walking to their destinations amid heavy snow on Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016. Image credit: Daniel Lin/Daily News-Record via AP.


Figure 4. A van drives through a flooded street as ice and snow prevent drainage Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016, in Atlantic City, N.J. Image credit: AP Photo/Mel Evans.

Record storm tides along the southern New Jersey and northern Delaware coast
While most eyes were peeled on the big cities of the Northeast, coastal residents on either side of the Delaware Bay had to deal with major coastal flooding, especially during Saturday morning’s high tide. Storm-related surges of 4 to 5 feet were common across northern Delaware and southern New Jersey. These are close to the highest values one would expect in any nor’easter. To make matters worse, the full moon added about a foot to the normal morning high tide. The resulting storm tide (the amount over the typical low tide, or mean low low water, including both astronomical and storm-related effects) hit a record 9.27 feet at Lewes, DE, beating the 9.20 feet observed in the nor’easter of March 6, 1962. Cape May and Stone Harbor, NJ, both saw record storm tides that exceeded the values observed during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Floodwaters poured into Stone Harbor in dramatic fashion on Saturday morning.

North of Atlantic City, the storm surge fell far short of the values observed during Sandy. The circulation around Sandy (which made landfall near Atlantic City) drove far larger storm surges of 10 feet or more into the coasts and bays of northern New Jersey and New York, resulting in storm tides as high as 15 feet. Moreover, Sandy’s huge waves--much bigger than those from Jonas--added greatly to the impact of the storm surge throughout the region. “Waves can contribute 50% or more to the coastal flooding along the open coastline and these are not included in storm tide measurements,” says Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel).

Widespread power outages
As of Saturday, more than 200,000 homes and businesses had lost power due to Jonas, although outages in the blizzard-socked areas were not nearly as widespread as had been feared. North Carolina was especially hard-hit by power losses due to a glaze of freezing rain that fell early in the storm, topped by a coating of snow.


Figure 5. Duke Energy lineman Aaron Crisafulli (bottom) checks on the progress of his coworker Jason Pearce in his bucket truck Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016 as Pearce cut tangled ice-laden tree limbs from power lines in downtown Raleigh, NC. The men were spending a 16-hour day moving from trouble spot to trouble spot in Raleigh after a winter storm swept over the Triangle area Friday and Saturday. Image credit: Harry Lynch/The News & Observer via AP.

Hats off to the computer models and NWS forecasts
One can’t help but be impressed by the persistence and accuracy of the leading forecast models in predicting near-record snowfall amounts for days on end ahead of the arrival of Jonas. Early in the week, the GFS and ECMWF models correctly zeroed in on Maryland, including Washington, D.C., as a focal point for heavy snow around Friday/Saturday. This gave local forecasters the confidence to issue a blizzard watch on Wednesday morning, two full days ahead of the storm’s arrival. (The massive traffic tie-ups in the D.C. area on Wednesday evening were the result of a mere half-inch of snow from a separate storm that preceded Jonas, a vivid reminder that even minor-seeming winter weather events need to be taken seriously in urban areas.)

New York was a tougher forecast nut to crack. Models agreed that there would be a sharp cut-off to the northern edge of heavy snow, a feature common in nor’easters, but they disagreed on where that northern edge would fall. As early as Wednesday, the NAM model was projecting huge weekend snowfall amounts in the New York area, while the GFS and ECMWF models tended to hold the heavy snow just south of New York, projecting only a few inches at best for the Big Apple. Forecasters at the National Weather Service’s local office in Upton, NY, wisely issued a prediction of 8-12” of snowfall and a blizzard watch on Thursday, just as blizzard warnings were being hoisted from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia. In New York, this was the perfect situation for a watch, which is intended to alert the public that a particular outcome is possible but not guaranteed. As other models joined the NAM bandwagon on Friday, the blizzard watch for NYC was upgraded to a warning, which provided enough advance notice for city dwellers to stock up on provisions and city planners to prepare for the worst.


Figure 6. Low-, mid-, and high-end snowfall amounts (in inches--see legend at top) projected for the region around New York City as of 2 pm EST Thursday, January 21, 2016 for the period from 1 pm Friday to 7 am Sunday. The values at New York City ranged from around 2” at the low end to 20” at the high end.


Figure 7. Analysis of surface pressure and winds at 3 pm EST Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016, overlaid with radar returns from 3:15 pm EST. An occluded front (not shown) extends from the strong surface low just east of the Delmarva Peninsula to a secondary low extending off the east edge of the map. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.


The storm ended up occluding in classic fashion, meaning that its main coastal surface low hung back while jet-stream energy carved out an occluded front extending northeastward just off the East Coast (see Figure 7). This evolution led to prime snowmaking conditions in a region of frontal formation aloft called a deformation zone that set up inland from the surface front, putting the heavy snow along and just northwest of the urban corridor. (Here’s an NWS explanation of deformation zones.)

WU blogger Steve Gregory, like many others, saw the classic nature of this setup emerging in the NAM and GFS models on Friday, although even then he wasn’t totally convinced. “Whenever a storm occludes out, it slows down and is pulled closer to the upper low (500 mb) and the storm track. Most importantly the deformation zone was then able to spiral further outward (northward) by 100-150 nautical miles, which brought very heavy snow bands into the NYC/Long Island/Cape Cod region,” Steve told me in an email. “This should NOT have been a surprise to me.”


Figure 8. A view of the sharp northern edge to snowfall across Pennsylvania, New York, and Connecticut, captured by the high-resolution MODIS satellite on Sunday morning, Jan. 24, 2016. Image credit: NASA (via Stu Ostro, TWC).


Figure 9. The sharp northern edge to heavy snow extended into central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NWS/Binghamton, NY (and a h/t to Stu Ostro, The Weather Channel).

The outer edge strikes again
Many New Yorkers remember the storm of late January 2015, when forecasters called for as much as three feet of snow in New York City, far more than actually fell there. Though that forecast might seem like a bust, the prediction of huge snows over much larger areas of eastern Long Island and southern New England actually proved correct. Again, the problem was a sharp cutoff to the heavy snow on the storm’s outer edge, with models disagreeing on whether that edge would end up west or east of New York City. NWS forecasters went big, then held off on dialing back the forecasts until it was abundantly clear that NYC would escape the worst.

It’s crucial that residents, businesses, and local government understand that some storms have a wider range of uncertainty than others at a given location. The experimental probabilistic guidance for snowfall that was posted on the home page of the NWS/New York office (see Figure 6) helped provide that sense. On Friday, it showed a low-end outcome of just an inch, but a high-end outcome of around two feet. I look forward to seeing this valuable tool become operational across the nation as soon as possible.

We’ll be back with a new post by Tuesday.

Bob Henson




Blizzard Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The ECMWF 12z says round 2 is possible on Friday:




"It's Sandy all over again for some people." Jason Pellegrini on coastal #flooding Sea Isle City #NJwx @CNN




Imagine what this Jonas tidal flooding will be in 20 more years, in 50, in 100.
Thanks for an excellent update Mr Henson!
Lake Shasta rose 3% yesterday :

45% of Total Capacity
68% of Historical Avg. For This Date

Thanks Mr. Henson.
thanks for the sunday afternoon update

good info as always
Quoting 1. Drakoen:

The ECMWF 12z says round 2 is possible on Friday:





That's two models on board now...GFS has a storm but shoots it out to sea.
I keep wondering how come people are allowed to live on coasts that are so vulnerable to flooding. Can't there at least be some kind of a wall in the sea to prevent the flooding? After all huge parts of the Netherlands are below sea level..
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

That's two models on board now...GFS has a storm but shoots it out to sea.


GFS Para 06z was a couple hundred miles off the coast. Wouldn't take much to bring it closer imo. Just need the trough to tilt negative earlier = greater amplification.
I guess I need to decloak and reveal my location. I am about 2 km ESE of the UMD College Park Campus in East Riverdale and I use "College Park" here as a location because it's familiar to more people. I have 16" of snow on the level and am confident it wasn't a bad measurement. That's all I got.
Quoting 11. georgevandenberghe:

I guess I need to decloak and reveal my location. I am about 2 km ESE of the UMD College Park Campus in East Riverdale and I use "College Park" here as a location because it's familiar to more people. I have 16" of snow on the level and am confident it wasn't a bad measurement. That's all I got.



Dry slot prevented your totals from being higher. Big difference here in Silver Spring and points farther north and west.
Quoting 8. Arcticstuff:

I keep wondering how come people are allowed to live on coasts that are so vulnerable to flooding. Can't there at least be some kind of a wall in the sea to prevent the flooding? After all huge parts of the Netherlands are below sea level..


There are short answers to this question, but the long answer is based in history, politics and externalizing losses.

A good summary is here. (You have to sign up for an email list to get part II, and it's worth it.)
Quoting 8. Arcticstuff:

I keep wondering how come people are allowed to live on coasts that are so vulnerable to flooding. Can't there at least be some kind of a wall in the sea to prevent the flooding? After all huge parts of the Netherlands are below sea level..


Trump is going to build a beautiful one and make winter pay for it!
If the ECMWF messes this up it's not going to look good for that model at all, especially with the poorly handling of our Blizzard.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 6m6 minutes ago
Euro has quite an interesting track for late week storm (bomb?). But the pattern is way less optimal than this go. We'll see.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4h4 hours ago
After all of that, ensembles showing hints of a round 2 nor'easter late this week. As always, depends if jets phase.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19m19 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Next storm modeled by ECMWF 12z is stronger but further off Mid-Atlantic coast for Friday. Fingers crossed.
Oh great now I can be on the edge of my seat watching model runs come in for the foreseable future. Turning on the radio for the football games today.
Interesting GEFS. A good amount of members to the west of the mean.

I'm not an expert model reader.. but it would appear the Canadian Global Model agrees? (Appears to have Low quite closer or on the coast though, if I'm seeing the animation right) Environment Canada also have a regional Model they use.. but I went with the Global one.

Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

That's two models on board now...GFS has a storm but shoots it out to sea.
The storm Deaths due to JONAS is now 19 as per the last hour.
Quoting 1. Drakoen:

The ECMWF 12z says round 2 is possible on Friday:





something to watch temps here are not to rise as high as expected on tuseday and may be very near the ice zone so we shall see I guess
Quoting 20. Patrap:

The storm Deaths due to JONAS is now 19 as per the last hour.
the day is not done yet got to go long and slow in the snow not short and fast
Thanks so much for insightful information, Bob Henson. I wonder about how topography plays into the snow distribution? Mountain ranges situated north/south in the west have a dry side and a wet side. How does this play into snowfall in the east, if at all? Also, the more urban areas, at least in Michigan where I am, have that urban heat island effect, and often get more rain. Does that play into snowfall totals in cities like NYC?
( Thanks, feeling grateful I'm not on the Jersey coast, because that photo looked simply freezing cold! Good luck to everyone out there. Brrrr. )
Thanks for the update.
Off topic: Once again... "faster than previously thought". Sydney, Australia (SPX) Jan 22, 2016 :
Link
Rising CO2 emissions pose 'intoxication' threat to ocean fish.

"UNSW Australia researchers have found that carbon dioxide concentrations in seawater could reach levels high enough to make fish "intoxicated" and disoriented many decades earlier than previously thought, with serious implications for the world's fisheries. The UNSW study, published in the journal Nature, is the first global analysis of the impact of rising carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels on natural variations in carbon dioxide concentrations in the world's oceans."

(...) To help accelerate this important area of research, the UNSW scientists have also offered prizes to other researchers who can improve on their results.
"Predicting the onset of hypercapnia is difficult, due to a lack of global ocean measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations," says Dr McNeil.
"We are challenging other scientists with innovative predictive approaches to download the dataset we used, employ their own numerical methods and share their final predictions, to see if they can beat our approach."
Thanks for the new post Mr. Henson.
Quoting 24. 999Ai2016:

Thanks for the update.
Off topic:
Once again... "Faster than previously thought".

forever faster and faster
Quoting 23. waterwunder:

Thanks so much for insightful information, Bob Henson. I wonder about how topography plays into the snow distribution? Mountain ranges situated north/south in the west have a dry side and a wet side. How does this play into snowfall in the east, if at all? Also, the more urban areas, at least in Michigan where I am, have that urban heat island effect, and often get more rain. Does that play into snowfall totals in cities like NYC?
( Thanks, feeling grateful I'm not on the Jersey coast, because that photo looked simply freezing cold! Good luck to everyone out there. Brrrr. )



All those factors you mentioned come into play, but every system is different.
One of the most important factors is the storm track or position of the low center. That usually determines the areas that will receive the most snowfall or where the rain/snow line sets up.

Urban Heat Island (speaking snow totals) comes into play when the temperatures are close to freezing. With this last system, temperatures were well below freezing (mid 20s) even down by the Potomac River in downtown D.C.


HWPC
Euro's H5 is almost a phase between northern and southern stream. If they phase, it will be another big storm. Bears watching.
Thanks Mr Bob for the excellent review.
Hvy sneaux?
Ha, I'm just happy to report - finally on this Sun Jan 24th - observed my 1st freeze of this mild El Nino Winter season with a 30F low… Perhaps the only freeze this chunk of SE LA gets. Yet, was also our 13th frost - totally covered in icy white early morn, having accreted up to 1/4" thick! Nearly as pretty as snowfall… and no shoveling, lol.
;)
Quoting 18. Drakoen:

Interesting GEFS. A good amount of members to the west of the mean.


Should get a better idea Wednesday. Basically now through possibly early March, is when the core of the Winter Fun is going to happening.
Amazing the Nam predicted Blizzard conditions for New York where as the GFS and Euro didnt.
Quoting 4. MahFL:

Lake Shasta rose 3% yesterday :

45% of Total Capacity
68% of Historical Avg. For This Date




Most excellent! And much more coming the next 2 weeks if models verify! The flow will then shift to Tahoe south in the Sierra's........but it's all good. If I don't get another drop in Soo Cal but nor Cal gets double/triple normal rain/snow....all is good! That would be best case scenario anyway.
Long list of snowfall totals for anyone that missed it earlier.

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
DALECARLIA RESERVOIR 26.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 WSW NATIONAL ZOO 22.4 914 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E WASHINGTON 22.3 1200 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
ADAMS MORGAN 21.0 1121 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE

MARYLAND

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
FROSTBURG 25.0 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
CUMBERLAND 22.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 SSE CUMBERLAND 22.0 905 PM 1/23 CO-OP OBSERVER
FROSTBURG 21.7 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
BWI AIRPORT 29.2 1230 AM 1/24 AIRPORT
RIVIERA BEACH 25.0 959 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NW BELVEDERE HEIGH 23.0 943 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
LINTHICUM HEIGHTS 23.0 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E CROFTON 22.5 1134 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 ENE CROFTON 19.0 915 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 N DUNKIRK 17.9 738 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE CHURCHTON 17.5 1141 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S RIDGEWAY 17.3 1230 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW RIVA 17.0 920 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
2 E REISTERSTOWN 32.1 930 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NE JACKSONVILLE 30.0 1057 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W PARKTON 29.8 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E GLYNDON 28.3 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW GLYNDON 27.0 1205 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E OELLA 26.5 910 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE PERRY HALL 26.0 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NNW BROOKLANDVILLE 26.0 918 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE WOODLAWN 26.0 913 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
REISTERSTOWN 26.0 1030 PM 1/23 STATE EMERG MGMT
1 ENE RANDALLSTOWN 25.5 700 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE HAMILTON 23.5 939 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE PUMPHREY 20.0 138 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BALTIMORE CITY...
PIMLICO 27.0 738 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW HAMILTON 24.0 1000 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W MORRELL PARK 21.0 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CALVERT COUNTY...
2 WSW SAINT LEONARD 24.0 1221 PM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NE DOWELL 19.0 1020 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 N HUNTINGTOWN 16.3 1030 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 SW HUNTINGTOWN 16.0 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S PRINCE FREDERICK 15.5 717 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BEACH 14.0 904 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CARROLL COUNTY...
4 NNE UNIONTOWN 26.0 820 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NNW GAITHER 25.0 854 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
1 SSW MANCHESTER 24.8 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CHARLES COUNTY...
RIPLEY 19.3 800 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W LA PLATA 19.0 743 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW ST. CHARLES 17.0 716 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SW DENTSVILLE 15.5 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 ESE ST. CHARLES 13.5 944 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
POINT OF ROCKS 35.2 1030 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
NEW MARKET 35.0 1000 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW IJAMSVILLE 33.0 1118 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 NE JEFFERSON 32.0 1115 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE MYERSVILLE 32.0 1100 PM 1/23 PRIVATE COMPANY
BALLENGER CREEK 31.0 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 N WOLFSVILLE 29.5 1055 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW BALLENGER CREE 29.5 1049 PM 1/23 COCORAHS

...HARFORD COUNTY...
2 E SCARBORO 33.5 915 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N BEL AIR 33.0 916 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW BEL AIR 31.0 935 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
2 E NORRISVILLE 27.0 1058 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE BEL AIR 22.9 1206 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HOWARD COUNTY...
2 N COLUMBIA 28.8 623 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLUMBIA 28.8 1100 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NNW GLENELG 28.0 940 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NW ELLICOTT CITY 27.5 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW COLUMBIA 25.0 1005 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSE SIMPSONVILLE 24.2 1230 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
2 NNW NORTH POTOMAC 38.5 700 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 ENE GAITHERSBURG 35.2 1102 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ENE GERMANTOWN 33.5 602 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
1 SE OLNEY 31.5 1015 PM 1/23 COCORAHS
1 N GARRETT PARK 30.8 1015 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW OLNEY 30.0 912 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE MONTGOMERY VILL 30.0 1011 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE DAMASCUS 30.0 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE NORBECK 29.8 1000 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ESE GERMANTOWN 27.5 1028 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
GAITHERSBURG 27.0 1020 PM 1/23 COUNTY EMRG MGMT
1 NNW BETHESDA 27.0 751 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW GARRETT PARK 26.5 1200 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW DERWOOD 26.5 1030 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 ENE GARRETT PARK 26.3 906 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW CALVERTON 23.9 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOMERSET 22.0 915 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE TAKOMA PARK 20.0 1011 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE TAKOMA PARK 18.5 1145 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
1 NW HYATTSVILLE 25.2 1032 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE CHELTENHAM 24.0 1045 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE CHELTENHAM 24.0 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE ADELPHI 22.6 932 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E UNIVERSITY PARK 22.3 1120 PM 1/23 NWS OFFICE
2 E BURTONSVILLE 21.9 1052 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE GREENBELT 20.5 948 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SW COLLEGE PARK 20.2 835 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
1 SSW HOLLYWOOD 15.8 911 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
ABELL 13.5 200 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W CALIFORNIA 12.5 744 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGE 10.7 1031 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
CASCADE 37.5 905 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
MAUGANSVILLE 37.5 1033 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
1 WSW CAVETOWN 31.3 1000 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NE SMITHSBURG 29.3 1030 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
3 SW FAIRPLAY 26.0 831 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

VIRGINIA

...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...
EARLYSVILLE 30.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
CROZET 20.5 1116 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
2 W CHARLOTTESVILLE 15.5 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ARLINGTON COUNTY...
1 ENE ARLINGTON 25.8 924 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE BAILEYS CROSSR 21.5 930 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WNW REAGAN NATIONA 19.4 927 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE RIVERCREST 18.5 941 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW CHERRYDALE 18.0 1020 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP 17.8 1230 AM 1/24 AIRPORT

...AUGUSTA COUNTY...
FISHERSVILLE 18.3 750 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...
2 ESE LINCOLNIA 21.5 930 PM 1/23 OTHER FEDERAL

...CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...
1 E FREDERICKSBURG 14.3 1105 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF MANASSAS...
2 ESE MANASSAS 30.1 210 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
MANASSAS 29.5 910 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW MANASSAS PARK 28.7 1206 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE MANASSAS 24.0 931 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE MANASSAS 21.0 1242 PM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CLARKE COUNTY...
1 NNW BERRYVILLE 35.0 1209 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
BOYCE 28.5 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
CENTREVILLE 30.8 1230 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE RESTON 29.0 1128 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSE HERNDON 28.5 405 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE HERNDON 28.4 1100 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 W CENTREVILLE 28.0 1030 PM 1/23 COCORAHS
3 N CHANTILLY 26.6 1230 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 E FAIRFAX STATION 26.0 835 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
VIENNA 25.0 830 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 SSW FRANCONIA 25.0 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROSE HILL 24.5 752 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WNW FALLS CHURCH 24.2 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NNW WESTOVER 24.0 1032 AM 1/24 COCORAHS
1 SE MERRIFIELD 24.0 925 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S BURKE 23.5 950 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NW NEWINGTON 23.5 1044 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S VIENNA 23.0 752 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W LAKE BARCROFT 23.0 1017 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SE CHANTILLY 22.0 930 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S LINCOLNIA 22.0 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
RAVENSWORTH 21.0 915 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 ENE LORTON 20.5 850 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FAUQUIER COUNTY...
1 NW OPAL 30.0 1013 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSE MORRISVILLE 19.0 1208 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HIGHLAND COUNTY...
5 NW HIGHTOWN 30.0 1209 PM 1/24 PUBLIC
1 SW MILL GAP 10.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER

...KING GEORGE COUNTY...
1 SSE SHILOH 16.0 925 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
JERSEY 14.0 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
1 WNW ROUND HILL 36.3 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
BLUEMONT 36.0 814 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NNE ASHBURN 36.0 1128 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
MIDDLEBURG 34.0 729 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW LEESBURG 34.0 1017 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ASHBURN 33.0 901 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 NW MIDDLEBURG 32.0 732 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE HUGHESVILLE 30.0 912 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
DULLES INTERNATIONAL 29.3 1230 AM 1/24 AIRPORT
2 NW LEESBURG 28.5 914 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 S BLUEMONT 25.0 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MADISON COUNTY...
HAYWOOD 24.5 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 ESE MADISON 14.5 936 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NELSON COUNTY...
4 ESE NELLYSFORD 13.0 150 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PAGE COUNTY...
LURAY 27.0 700 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
1 SW IDA 24.5 624 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WSW PANORAMA 24.0 716 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...
3 SW BULL RUN 32.1 1050 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW BULL RUN 30.0 900 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 W DALE CITY 26.3 1130 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
SUDLEY 25.5 1215 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 ESE INDEPENDENT HI 23.0 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE DUMFRIES 18.5 916 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
1 W DAYTON 22.5 739 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SHENANDOAH COUNTY...
STRASBURG 22.8 1016 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...STAFFORD COUNTY...
1 SSE GLENDIE 24.3 905 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E ROSEVILLE 20.0 1000 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW SEALSTON 19.0 1000 PM 1/23 COCORAHS
1 ESE BROOKE 19.0 1045 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WARREN COUNTY...
1 N KARO 32.1 715 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST VIRGINIA

...BERKELEY COUNTY...
1 ESE GLENGARY 42.0 700 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW VANVILLE 35.4 1039 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NW MARTINSBURG ARP 30.0 1144 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...GRANT COUNTY...
BAYARD 34.5 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
1 NW SHEPHERDSTOWN 40.5 950 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
SHENANDOAH JUNCTION 35.5 930 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE

...MINERAL COUNTY...
2 SSW KEYSER 24.3 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NNE SHORT GAP 23.5 1014 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MORGAN COUNTY...
1 W SMITH CROSSROADS 33.2 1101 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
The snowpack is going to help trend the temps cooler than originally forecast, so really bears watching.
Snowzilla will probably end up ranking a high-end Category 4 on the NESIS scale, the first since 2005.

Snowfall totals in Boston likely would have needed to be higher for Snowzilla to become the third Category 5 (behind the 1993 Superstorm and Blizzard of 1996).
39. vis0
 AND i (cough, take a bit of a sandwich ) QUOTE::

"As noted by Capital Weather Gang’s Angela Fritz, the readings at Washington National through Saturday evening struck many as being oddly low compared to neighboring reports..."

MY PROOF:: Some WxU members mentioning they live NW of Washi115 led washi115 to head there knowing those WxU members are glued to wunderground and will not notice a red snow-blower pumping from their backyard  lots of Snow into a car's trunk. Then washi115's greed for snow had washi115 heading towards DCA knowing DCA measurements are usually not precise,



i rest my case of 3% milk cause its time for reading the blogbyte then "NFLing".

Any complains?, please write** me at Grothar at 1313 Mockingbird Lane Kukamunga, China.

**(Delivery might not be guaranteed due to smog cause mailman (or woman)) to place pkg in Pacific Ocean.)

ON THE SERIOUS SIDE CAREFUL SHOVELING SNOW, if you have to no need to do it fast you are not trying to win a 50 yrd dash not to mention throw your back. YOU ARE YOUR OWN BOSS when shoveling do it slowly and correctly - bend at knees - or as Grothar pay a kid to do it, in pesos : - P.
Here are the totals for the New York Region

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NORWALK 16.0 950 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
DARIEN 16.0 600 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 15.0 1124 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
WILTON 14.0 600 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 9.5 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
EASTON 11.5 1005 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
RIDGEFIELD 10.0 1000 PM 1/23 PUBLIC

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
HADDAM 15.5 1230 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
PORTLAND 7.0 900 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO
CROMWELL 7.0 900 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
MILFORD 15.5 1000 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
NORTH HAVEN 14.4 1115 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST HAVEN 11.5 1022 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
2 ENE MERIDEN 8.0 930 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
GALES FERRY 5.0 900 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
TENAFLY 24.0 1005 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
LYNDHURST 22.0 955 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ALLENDALE 21.0 947 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
RIDGEWOOD 18.0 1000 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWARK AIRPORT 28.1 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
WEST ORANGE 24.0 830 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
CEDAR GROVE 19.4 1100 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
NORTH CALDWELL 17.0 800 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HUDSON COUNTY...
KEARNY 26.5 1255 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BERGEN 26.3 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
HOBOKEN 26.0 1005 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
HARRISON 25.0 715 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
BLOOMINGDALE 22.6 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
RINGWOOD 21.7 1115 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...UNION COUNTY...
ROSELLE 28.3 500 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROSELLE PARK 28.2 700 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
WESTFIELD 24.0 1003 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
BELMONT 27.6 1115 PM 1/23 BRONX ZOO
PARKCHESTER 26.8 1200 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
RIVERDALE 17.0 900 AM 1/24 PUBLIC

...KINGS COUNTY...
WILLIAMSBURG 29.0 930 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
BROOKLYN 27.0 1200 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
FORT GREENE 24.5 1200 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
HICKSVILLE 29.6 1200 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
BALDWIN 28.0 700 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
NORTH MERRICK 25.8 1100 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
MASSAPEQUA 25.2 930 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
WANTAGH 25.1 800 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW HYDE PARK 24.3 900 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO
CARLE PLACE 24.1 900 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO
ISLAND PARK 24.0 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
MERRICK 23.4 1100 PM 1/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
BETHPAGE 23.0 940 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
FLORAL PARK 23.0 700 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
PLAINVIEW 20.4 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
SEAFORD 19.5 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
GLEN COVE 18.0 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
EAST MEADOW 16.8 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
BELLMORE 16.0 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
HAMILTON HOUSES 27.0 930 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
CENTRAL PARK 26.8 100 AM 1/24 ASOS

...ORANGE COUNTY...
KIRYAS JOEL 10.0 1050 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
WESTTOWN 6.8 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
LAKE CARMEL 12.0 1030 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
PUTNAM VALLEY 11.0 1100 PM 1/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NE BREWSTER 6.0 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...QUEENS COUNTY...
JACKSON HEIGHTS 34.0 1200 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 30.5 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
NYC/LA GUARDIA 27.9 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
OAKLAND GARDENS 27.4 1035 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
FRESH MEADOWS 26.5 1000 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
LITTLE NECK 24.0 1020 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
SUNNYSIDE 20.0 700 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
GRANT CITY 26.0 930 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ELTINGVILLE 22.0 930 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
DONGAN HILLS 19.8 330 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY...
PORT RICHMOND 31.3 1020 PM 1/23 PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ISLIP 26.0 700 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAY SHORE 26.0 830 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
PATCHOGUE 24.0 745 AM 1/24 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
ISLIP AIRPORT 23.4 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
SMITHTOWN 23.0 1200 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
CORAM 22.5 930 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
FARMINGVILLE 22.0 700 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
PORT JEFFERSON 22.0 950 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
YAPHANK 22.0 700 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
HOLBROOK 22.0 1100 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
SAYVILLE 20.5 900 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
EASTPORT 19.5 545 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
UPTON 18.2 700 AM 1/24 NWS OFFICE
MILLER PLACE 18.0 900 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
HUNTINGTON STATION 17.9 900 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO
MATTITUCK 15.5 800 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOUTHAMPTON 14.5 1120 PM 1/23 PUBLIC

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
PORT CHESTER 24.5 300 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
LARCHMONT 24.0 130 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
DOBBS FERRY 20.6 730 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
YONKERS 20.5 1000 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
EASTCHESTER 19.2 730 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
SCARSDALE 18.6 730 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 15.0 1145 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ARMONK 14.2 1111 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
WHITE PLAINS 13.0 700 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO
HARRISON 13.0 700 AM 1/24 AMATEUR RADIO
Quoting 31. victoria780:

Amazing the Nam predicted Blizzard conditions for New York where as the GFS and Euro didnt.


the NAM is the winner for new york it gets a gold star
whats the best 4k TV for around $699 ?
Quoting 42. Tazmanian:

whats the best 4k TV for around $699 ?


You come up with some good ones Taz. Put me down for one of those $699.00 specials.

On the weather front it actually feels great outside today because the wind has backed off and the sunshine is so bright. It's still cool with temps in the low 60s, but it feels wonderful.
45. vis0
Amazing to me was how the ULL assisted in bringing snow further west than predicted and luckily the extra energy seemed to move more towards moving precipitation inland than into strong constant winds, so maybe that is why power lines where spared (venthough weighted by snow 'n ice) for such a large potent circulation

WOW i got a mention "New York was a tougher forecast nut to crack", that's better than an at-a-boy cookie.
NWS site showed 8.2" for Boston.
That's a lot more snow than originally predicted. Original forecast for for 0-2" max.
when i went too my walmart store i was blown a way by this by the screen of the TV so what you guys think about this 4K TV need some inputs

Link
If I can travel in 2 feet of snow with 5 foot drifts to steal more snow I can do anything! :)
Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

If I can travel in 2 feet of snow with 5 foot drifts to steal more snow I can do anything! :)


You are so the WOMAN!
UKMET 12z does not look dissimilar to the ECMWF 12z:


Quoting 48. Tazmanian:

when i went too my walmart store i was blown a way by this by the screen of the TV so what you guys think about this 4K TV need some inputs

Link


I thought you meant $4K not 4K UHD resolution.
Sorry I'm no help.

Local S.W. Florida news
Naples pier is back open today. They had to close it down yesterday due to the high surf (reported to be hitting the bottom of the pier). I'd go surfing if I wasn't a wimp to chilly air temps.
55. vis0

Quoting 2. Patrap:

"It's Sandy all over again for some people." Jason Pellegrini on coastal #flooding Sea Isle City #NJwx @CNN




Imagine what this Jonas tidal flooding will be in 20 more years, in 50, in 100.
Sadly i think yer right & wrong Patrp specially by the 100 yr point, those areas might no longer have homes on them (i'm SORRY to those homeowners).
Therefore a Jonas type flooding will be affecting towns (THAT IS RIGHT) that are further west, (NOT TODAYs flooded TOWNS) that remained dry as to 2016s Jonas.
i hope i'm wrong don't want to see people loose what they worked so hard for, if you don't as-well then help clean up the mess we've made, please statistics are not in danger people lives and property is..
Quoting 53. Drakoen:

UKMET 12z does not look dissimilar to the ECMWF 12z
What does that mean? Mind you I'm loaded up on advil from being out earlier and shoveling snow with my two eldest sons and hubby.It was a "all hands on deck" mission to remove the snows from the porch,cars,sidewalk,stairway,walkway and street.
UKMET 12z track. I-95 special.

Quoting 56. washingtonian115:

What does that mean? Mind you I'm loaded up on advil from being out earlier and shoveling snow with my two eldest sons and hubby.It was a "all hands on deck" mission to remove the snows from the porch,cars,sidewalk,stairway,walkway and street.


It's similar to the ECMWF lol.
Link

Sign my Change.org petition to move DC weather observations to The White House
Just got off the phone with my family back east. Amazingly, every one kept their power! My sister in Baltimore reported 24 inches, with 5 foot drifts blocking the stairs out of her apartment. My parents in St. Mary's County, in Great Mills MD, reported about a foot with 2-3 foot drifts. It was far less snow than the last blizzard in 2010, at least as far as Southern Maryland goes. There were periods of freezing rain that really limited the accumulations. In fact, my friend down at Point Lookout only got 8 inches!
Quoting 48. Tazmanian:

when i went too my walmart store i was blown a way by this by the screen of the TV so what you guys think about this 4K TV need some inputs

Link


I look at reviews on Amazon, the negative reviews for this one would put me off, especially the comments about the company service. Other than that, I have no idea.
ECMWF EPS 12z looks very similar to the UKMET 12z.

Won't be long until we're into tornado season. The past four years have been 'quiet' in the US, after the infamous 2011 season. This was second only to 2004 for reported tornadoes, which suggests global warming may be causing more, but maybe there was less interest in reporting them in the past. Certainly, there were fewer people out in cars the further back you go. The chart below shows a trend towards fewer strong tornadoes (F3 ) than in the past.

I had a look to see if the second year of strong El Ninos were correlated with increased intense >2 (Fujita) tornadoes, and there's no correlation. La Ninas appear to be associated with increased activity, however.



The key factor appears to be the polar jet stream penetrating further south, bringing cold, dry air down to clash with warm, moisture laden air from the GOM.
Quoting 47. Grothar:


Posting short range models can be addicting...:)
Quoting 32. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Most excellent! And much more coming the next 2 weeks if models verify! The flow will then shift to Tahoe south in the Sierra's........but it's all good. If I don't get another drop in Soo Cal but nor Cal gets double/triple normal rain/snow....all is good! That would be best case scenario anyway.


I would like some more here, my town depends entirely on ground water, no state water. Except what I get in bottles.
Quoting 31. victoria780:

Amazing the Nam predicted Blizzard conditions for New York where as the GFS and Euro didnt.
The NAM is actually a favored model with many Mets for forecasting winter storms.
Quoting 2. Patrap:

"It's Sandy all over again for some people." Jason Pellegrini on coastal #flooding Sea Isle City #NJwx @CNN




Imagine what this Jonas tidal flooding will be in 20 more years, in 50, in 100.
At some point people will be driven inland by rising insurance rates. It will be a flooded boarded-up ghost town.
When will southeast Louisiana get their snow storm
The Big Digging Continues.
Quoting 63. yonzabam:

Won't be long until we're into tornado season. The past four years have been 'quiet' in the US, after the infamous 2011 season. This was second only to 2004 for reported tornadoes, which suggests global warming may be causing more, but maybe there was less interest in reporting them in the past. Certainly, there were fewer people out in cars the further back you go.

I had a look to see if the second year of strong El Ninos were correlated with increased intense >2 (Fujita) tornadoes, and there's no correlation. La Ninas appear to be associated with increased activity, however.



The key factor appears to be the polar jet stream penetrating further south, bringing cold, dry air down to clash with warm, moisture laden air from the GOM.


One issue I noticed the past couple seasons was cool dry air (high pressure) settling in over the Southeast and Southern Plains. There was a lack of systems that allowed Gulf of Mexico moisture to feed into the Southern Plains.

So cold dry air is an important ingredient, but there must be adequate time for the moisture (dewpoints) and warmer temperatures to build a head of the systems.

It will be interesting to see how this severe weather season unfolds.
Quoting 69. Andrebrooks:

When will southeast Louisiana get their snow storm
Never lol
Quoting 73. Accu35blog:

Never lol
can we at least get some sleet and/or freezing rain.
Virtually no precip on the national radar this afternoon.
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:

What does that mean? Mind you I'm loaded up on advil from being out earlier and shoveling snow with my two eldest sons and hubby.It was a "all hands on deck" mission to remove the snows from the porch,cars,sidewalk,stairway,walkway and street.


I have two boys 19 and 18 and I still have some strength myself plus we got only 20" so no big deal to shovel our 150 feet of sidewalk and 20 feet of driveway, much of which was plow wall.
Quoting 74. Andrebrooks:

can we at least get some sleet and/or freezing rain.


You really don't want freezing rain. Walking becomes virtually impossible, and A&E departments are overwhelmed with casualties, many of whom are elderly, with hip fractures.

When you slip on icy ground, you usually feel yourself slipping, and can take some action to make the fall less injurious. The last time we had freezing rain here, I went straight down, like a sack of coal. No sense that I was falling, just 'THUMP'. My head didn't hit the ground, but when I stood up, I felt like I was going to pass out. Obviously, the brain got jarred, despite not hitting the ground. You really don't want freezing rain.
Quoting 76. georgevandenberghe:



I have two boys 19 and 18 and I still have some strength myself plus we got only 20" so no big deal to shovel our 150 feet of sidewalk and 20 feet of driveway, much of which was plow wall.

The snow blower broke down on my husband yesterday.Its a good thing I don't get rid of my shovels after every winter.We had three ones in the shed which were still in good shape and used those to shovel the snow with this morning.Our street still hasn't been fully plowed.Schools across the area are closed tomorrow again.The threat for Thursday night into Friday is starting to appear in the long run.
Quoting 59. Twinkster:

Link

Sign my Change.org petition to move DC weather observations to The White House
I think the Smithsonian would be the best place to take observations for DC.
It seems that much of the controversy about snowfall predictions stems from the difficulty of verifying the actual precipitable water as well as the snowflake formation conditions, both of which affect snow depth. Has anyone tried measuring snow depth adjacent to a CoCoRahs or similar precision gauge, but with a heated funnel so the snow falling on it is melted and deposited in the gauge rather than clogging the inlet, so that a comparison of the snow depth accumulation with the amount of liquid-equivalent precip could be made? I'm also thinking that a 2 to 3 foot tall square tube the size of the snow board (with the snow board at the bottom and an access door for reading and clearing the board) ought to give a pretty good accumulation reading in windy blizzard conditions. Maybe this is an experiment some weather geek could perform to try to resolve some of the controversy.
Quoting 79. BaltimoreBrian:

I think the Smithsonian would be the best place to take observations for DC.


Why is that?
Jason Samenow from CWG, just mentioned the possible Thursday-Friday storm in a latest video.
Quoting 82. Climate175:

Jason Samenow from CWG, just mentioned the possible Thursday-Friday storm in a latest video.


Where can I find this video?
Quoting 83. vdb0422:



Where can I find this video?
Here is the link. Link
Quoting 85. Climate175:

Here is the link. Link


Thank you.
Quoting 71. BaltimoreBrian:

Vernon Alston, 44, Capitol police officer dies shoveling snow


Very sad. Prayers for him and his family.
Quoting 54. Sfloridacat5:



I thought you meant $4K not 4K UHD resolution.
Sorry I'm no help.

Local S.W. Florida news
Naples pier is back open today. They had to close it down yesterday due to the high surf (reported to be hitting the bottom of the pier). I'd go surfing if I wasn't a wimp to chilly air temps.


I don't mind cold air, but I just hate cold water. The nearshore swimming waters of the gulf have plunged into the 50's from all these cold spells and that's just nasty to be in.
... not sure I should completely pack away all the stuff I got out in preparation for the last storm... near miss this time on power outage (Triangle NC) with some tree branches getting unscheduled trimming. At least I know the generator works :)

Looking at the models, it looks like we might again be near rain - below freezing line... Nobody is getting anywhere close to a forecast - yet. Maybe I'll just drive around with de-ice and sand in car for a few more days.

Quoting 84. Climate175:




I saw this on AccuWeather and thought they accidentally reprinted a week old story!!!
18z GFS has the low closer to the coast than the 12z.
Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

The snow blower broke down on my husband yesterday.Its a good thing I don't get rid of my shovels after every winter.We had three ones in the shed which were still in good shape and used those to shovel the snow with this morning.Our street still hasn't been fully plowed.Schools across the area are closed tomorrow again.The threat for Thursday night into Friday is starting to appear in the long run.

.
No school in Baltimore CO (daughter) or Laurel (son), two different Catholic high schools tomorrow.
My hunch is not tuesday either, depends on whether they clear parking lots.

I keep thinking my snow clearing was easy compared with further North and West.
700 feet of gravel road, 30 inches, an 8 foot drift and all the shear pins on the snow blower broken. We're gonna need a bigger boat :)
Quoting 92. georgevandenberghe:


.
No school in Baltimore CO (daughter) or Laurel (son), two different Catholic high schools tomorrow.
My hunch is not tuesday either, depends on whether they clear parking lots.

I keep thinking my snow clearing was easy compared with further North and West.
ya get a little melt and settling happening be gone in no time
Quoting 84. Climate175:



Go ahead! All those storms off the North American East Coast should influence European weather directly or indirectly. Frosty winter is getting expelled from Europe which is already very mild in its western parts. Forced by the jetstream windstorms and rains are ahead at least of northwestern Europe (poor British Isles!) and maybe even for central Europe with Germany. Some of the runs of ECMWF earlier hinted at an evil storm for us on Monday next week (= your possible late week system), but that's not written in stone yet.


GFS shows the westdrift with mild airmasses and windstorms. Should be an interesting week.


Anomalies of max temps in Europe in the next week. A lot of red!

And - not to forget - thanks to Bob for the good read about "Jonas"!
Quoting 93. goosegirl1:

700 feet of gravel road, 30 inches, an 8 foot drift and all the shear pins on the snow blower broken. We're gonna need a bigger boat :)
need one of these o about 18000 dollars

Link Pacifica declares local emergency after damage to sea wall - January 23, 2016 - The city manager of Pacifica, California has declared a local emergency after strong waves caused by El Nino storms ate away part of a sea wall in the coastal community, damaging the municipal pier and threatening several homes.

The San Jose Mercury News reports City Manager Lori Tinfow announced Friday Pacifica will need state and federal assistance to "respond to the growing list of failing public infrastructure."
Crews have placed boulders at the bottom of an eroding cliff along Beach Boulevard to stop sea water from reaching the already soaked soil but the cliff has continued to crumble.

Mayor Sue Digre says the ferocious waves in recent weeks have been relentless and longer from north to south than any she's seen during her 25 years of living in Pacifica.
Quoting 98. Climate175:




its just getting started
Quoting 71. BaltimoreBrian:

Vernon Alston, 44, Capitol police officer dies shoveling snow

Very sad. - I did not have to shovel snow very often at my place downtown Mainz, but when I had to (especially in winter 2010) I was quickly exhausted, the more as we lack special equipment.

Digging and "digging":





And, lol, digging:



Quoting 97. 999Ai2016:

Link Pacifica declares local emergency after damage to sea wall - January 23, 2016 - The city manager of Pacifica, California has declared a local emergency after strong waves caused by El Nino storms ate away part of a sea wall in the coastal community, damaging the municipal pier and threatening several homes.

The San Jose Mercury News reports City Manager Lori Tinfow announced Friday Pacifica will need state and federal assistance to "respond to the growing list of failing public infrastructure."
Crews have placed boulders at the bottom of an eroding cliff along Beach Boulevard to stop sea water from reaching the already soaked soil but the cliff has continued to crumble.

Mayor Sue Digre says the ferocious waves in recent weeks have been relentless and longer from north to south than any she's seen during her 25 years of living in Pacifica.



There is no more "Normal"

We will and are witnessing increasingly chaotic events as the more Water Vapor laden atmosphere takes us into the Anthropocene.

Quoting 88. Jedkins01:



I don't mind cold air, but I just hate cold water. The nearshore swimming waters of the gulf have plunged into the 50's from all these cold spells and that's just nasty to be in.


Is this off Tampa or off the Panhandle coast?.. the latter is normal for this time of year.
Quoting 98. Climate175:




Winter is not finished here in the Mid Atlantic until early April.
Quoting 94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya get a little melt and settling happening be gone in no time


I'm thinking not till about February 4 or so. Melt will be slow but that is better than a fast melt with rain and flooding.
The 2010 dumps melted off slowly and gently, an inch or two a day until gone. 2010 was a near record warm spring and an outlier extreme ungodly warm summer here, warmest of record.
Quoting 103. georgevandenberghe:



Winter is not finished here in the Mid Atlantic until early April.
Very True, many more storms to come.
Severe weather wise for FL...this coming Thursday's storm has been looking really gamely on GEOS-5 for days.
Addition to post #95

"Lots of isobars":
Weather for the week ahead
BBC weather video, 24 January 2016 Last updated at 13:49
A massive blizzard brought record snowfall for the US east coast over the weekend. How will this storm influence the UK's weather in the week ahead? BBC Weather's Alex Deakin has the forecast.
It's showing some snow behind it for GA & such.. We'll see, that detail has been coming and going.

Heatwave coming up.....lol nomal is 67/44 65.3 right now....
We ended the day with overcast skies...



12Z dropped the snow behind it.. That part has been fickle. Overall the trend though has been to move it forward in time. 12Z has the severe weather chance Wed afternoon into the night instead of starting late in the evening.
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Discussion...

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT FLORIDA STILL
LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US SPLITS INTO A SOUTHERN/NORTHERN
COMPONENT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH STILL HANDLE THIS PROCESS DIFFERENTLY
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH
THE SOUTHERN TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF, THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS, OR MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WE MIGHT SEE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF
THE MODEL HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY, LOOK LIKE ANOTHER WET AND STORMY PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

Link
Just great, lol! (Although dangerous and disobedient, of course ;-). German "Spiegel Magazine online" has this in its coverage of the blizzard:

Thank you, Bob. You and your cohorts did a great job rounding up all the facts and figures from a whopper storm. The amazing thing watching that time lapse was seeing the flurries we got coming all the way down the backside of the low as it started moving north. I can now report, after checking the snowboard and the four measurements with my calibrated old time Weather Bureau measuring stick, my storm total was - zero. Just the way I like it. It did bottom out at 22 this morning though, which is about 11 degrees below average, and quite enough of that kind of thing for a while too.

The next system for Wednesday night and Thursday will be another nail biter down here. How far south will the front end up, do we see a closed low form on it? Does a low form soon enough to allow moisture while still in throes of cold air or late enough that it's all rain? Is the low neutrally or negatively tilted, which affects the chances of severe weather? Does the low cross Florida and out into the Atlantic before turning north or go inland over Georgia and up the coast like the last storm? All the fine details models aren't good at, and probably won't start to come into agreement about until we are within a day or two out. As with the last storm, the formation of the ULL inland and the slightly more northern position of the low compared to the models made all the difference between three inches of snow in Central Park or 28 inches of snow. It does appear that, after whatever this system becomes, we enter at least a quasi-zonal flow for a week, giving some respite from big snowstorms in the East, but maybe some bigger storms out West. We shall see.
Leaning on GEOS-5 seasonal & monthly anomalies to say the NE wouldn't be getting much snow til an epic nor'easter in January a few months back panned out so well I'm going to go ahead and doom the Mid-county..Mississippi basin for March and April. It's been showing this for months. 1993 keeps coming up as a similiar pattern to what we are having too. Check out the Great Flood of 1993.. Red is excessive precipitation on these..

Quoting 97. 999Ai2016:

Link Pacifica declares local emergency after damage to sea wall - January 23, 2016 - The city manager of Pacifica, California has declared a local emergency after strong waves caused by El Nino storms ate away part of a sea wall in the coastal community, damaging the municipal pier and threatening several homes.

The San Jose Mercury News reports City Manager Lori Tinfow announced Friday Pacifica will need state and federal assistance to "respond to the growing list of failing public infrastructure."
Crews have placed boulders at the bottom of an eroding cliff along Beach Boulevard to stop sea water from reaching the already soaked soil but the cliff has continued to crumble.

Mayor Sue Digre says the ferocious waves in recent weeks have been relentless and longer from north to south than any she's seen during her 25 years of living in Pacifica.
Pacifica has been fighting this for decades, and mostly unsuccessfully. The cliffside area with homes has problems every single winter. It's time to bite the bullet and red tag the homes and have people move on with their lives. The homes should never have been allowed to be built there, and the city is going to share in that liability.
Quoting 110. CaribBoy:

We ended the day with overcast skies...




That's terrible. Are you thinking of moving? Harrisburg PA has some inexpensive homes. Some come with a snow blower. :-)
Quoting 113. barbamz:

Just great, lol! (Although dangerous, of course). German Spiegel has this in its coverage of the blizzard:


The guy is wearing a YouTube Jacket? Strange white plastic sunglasses, no helmet, and snowboarding among NYC cabs known to turn directly in front of even large vehicles for no apparent reason. Yeah, awesome, dude.
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:



I'm thinking not till about February 4 or so. Melt will be slow but that is better than a fast melt with rain and flooding.
The 2010 dumps melted off slowly and gently, an inch or two a day until gone. 2010 was a near record warm spring and an outlier extreme ungodly warm summer here, warmest of record.
All I remember in Cleveland is snow melted just when I was getting used to there being snow. That could be two days or two months. We had the winter of 1962-63, when I had to help with shoveling every other day for weeks on end. I hope this isn't the start of this kind of weather.
University has closed to until noon tomorrow, even though everyone expects them to close for the whole day. I've heard that most other institutions in this neck of the woods are already closed tomorrow, and there are rumors floating around that a lot of roads won't be cleared until Tuesday.

Let's just say the commuter population is rather incensed right now at the University.
Quoting 102. georgevandenberghe:



Is this off Tampa or off the Panhandle coast?.. the latter is normal for this time of year.

I'm betting it's the Panhandle Gulf. Temperatures there have really plunged in the past week, and are probably down a few more degrees after the past couple of days of cold weather.
Here's a follow-up story from CWG with more background on what happened at DCA during the height of the snowstorm.

Paltry Washington, D.C., snowfall total raises questions about observing standards
Quoting 89. snow2fire:

... not sure I should completely pack away all the stuff I got out in preparation for the last storm... near miss this time on power outage (Triangle NC) with some tree branches getting unscheduled trimming. At least I know the generator works :)

Looking at the models, it looks like we might again be near rain - below freezing line... Nobody is getting anywhere close to a forecast - yet. Maybe I'll just drive around with de-ice and sand in car for a few more days.


Just lucky that the freezing rain wasn't heavier or lasted longer. All the tree trimming by the utilities has helped as well. I'd leave all that in your trunk for about the next two months or so.
Quoting 118. sar2401:

The guy is wearing a YouTube Jacket? Strange white plastic sunglasses, no helmet, and snowboarding among NYC cabs known to turn directly in front of even large vehicles for no apparent reason. Yeah, awesome, dude.

Aw, Sar. If you watch the "making of" (cautious: foul language used) you realize that this vid of course was a calculated thing - and designed to go viral (what it does). Nevertheless, I had great fun watching it quite a few times. And it communicates the "out of order" situation in a metropolitan area, thanks to the overwhelming power of nature. - It has a bit of carnival which is the 5th season in my region of Germany right now, turning things upside down.
Good night folks, have a convenient start into the new week.
Quoting 122. BobHenson:

Here's a follow-up story from CWG with more background on what happened at DCA during the height of the snowstorm.

Paltry Washington, D.C., snowfall total raises questions about observing standards
They couldn't find the snowboard? Way back in the day, I attached one of those bicycle flag whips to my snowboard so I knew where it was when I had to clear it again. That was about 1960. In these hitech days, they weren't able to figure something like that out? That's kind of a ridiculous excuse.
Quoting 122. BobHenson:

Here's a follow-up story from CWG with more background on what happened at DCA during the height of the snowstorm.

Paltry Washington, D.C., snowfall total raises questions about observing standards
ya seems a snowgate in the making

heard the board blew away not buried by snow but ya know rumors they can get outta hand
Quoting 122. BobHenson:

Here's a follow-up story from CWG with more background on what happened at DCA during the height of the snowstorm.

Paltry Washington, D.C., snowfall total raises questions about observing standards

"The reason, it turns out, may be partly due to the improvised technique used by a small team of weather observers at the airport who lost their snow-measuring device to the elements midway through the blizzard."

hey sar its snowing real bad winds are at 50 mph wind chills are at 2 f visibility is less than 10 yards isn't it your turn go out check the snow measure board
Quoting 126. barbamz:


Aw, Sar. If you watch the "making of" (cautious: foul language used) you realize that this vid of course was a calculated thing - and designed to go viral (what it does). Nevertheless, I had great fun watching it quite a few times. And it communicates the "out of order" situation in a Metropolianean area, thanks to the overwhelming power of nature. - It has a bit of carnival which is the 5th season in my region of Germany right now, turning things upside down.
Good night folks, have a convenient start into the new week.
With all the different angles and the YouTube jacket I kind of assumed this was produced for the effect. Still, if the guy had fallen or been hit by one of those cabs, we'd see stories calculated to makes us all feel bad for him because "they were just trying to produce a video". I imagine the scene with the cop was also staged. A real cop would have given him a citation.
Quoting 130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hey sar its snowing real bad winds are at 50 mph wind chills are at 2 f visibility is less than 10 yards isn't it your turn go out check the snow measure board
It used to be my job...when I was 14. Now I just drink coffee.
NASA: Supercomputer Model Shows the Flow of #Blizzard2016

Where are the reporting station observations supporting a blizzard classification?
KMQS and KSMQ stand alone. All others come up short.
Quoting 80. CaneFreeCR:

It seems that much of the controversy about snowfall predictions stems from the difficulty of verifying the actual precipitable water as well as the snowflake formation conditions, both of which affect snow depth. Has anyone tried measuring snow depth adjacent to a CoCoRahs or similar precision gauge, but with a heated funnel so the snow falling on it is melted and deposited in the gauge rather than clogging the inlet, so that a comparison of the snow depth accumulation with the amount of liquid-equivalent precip could be made? I'm also thinking that a 2 to 3 foot tall square tube the size of the snow board (with the snow board at the bottom and an access door for reading and clearing the board) ought to give a pretty good accumulation reading in windy blizzard conditions. Maybe this is an experiment some weather geek could perform to try to resolve some of the controversy.
Most cold weather NWS offices have heated rain gauges so the liquid content snow and freezing rain can be measured properly. However, when it's snowing at 3" per hour, even a good heated gauge can be overwhelmed and lose some snow. Most offices do compare the liquid equivalent and snow depth measures to make sure they aren't out of whack. I don't know how it's done at Washington National though.
Quoting 122. BobHenson:

Here's a follow-up story from CWG with more background on what happened at DCA during the height of the snowstorm.

Paltry Washington, D.C., snowfall total raises questions about observing standards

From the Washington Post article about the Reagan National Airport snow measurement:
"The National Weather Service requires that snow be measured with a snow board, which can be little more than a piece of plywood painted white. The board should be placed on the ground before the storm starts in a location that will be undisturbed by drifting. When the storm starts, snow should be measured every six hours, and then the board should be swiped clear.

But once the storm got going Friday night, the board was buried and the observer could no longer locate the board."
Quoting 102. georgevandenberghe:



Is this off Tampa or off the Panhandle coast?.. the latter is normal for this time of year.



Water temps are mostly in the mid to upper 50's in the bay and the nearshore waters. Clearwater beach has a water temp of 56 right now, which isn't that unusual for this time of year, despite that the Florida chamber of commerce advertises water temps in the 70's and high's in the 80's this time of year for the visit Florida adds :)

Quoting 135. NEWxSFC:

Where are the reporting station observations supporting a blizzard classification?
KMQS and KSMQ stand alone. All others come up short.

Did you mean KMOS (Chester County)? I haven't looked carefully at the AWOS/ASOS observations from the smaller airports, but blizzard conditions are a little flexible. For example, you can have an hourly with a visibility at 1/2 mile when the visibility was 1/4 mile or less for almost the entire hour before the observation. In a case like that, it would still be pegged as blizzard conditions. I don't think anyone did have true blizzard conditions for more than a few hours, but it's hard to tell if you weren't there.
So last night I re-watched the NOVA program :

Mystery Beneath the Ice

This is about the crash of the krill populations around Antarctica. By 50%, and in some places 90%. And they explain why this happening.

For the last few years we have heard the deniers harp on the slight growth on sea ice around Antarctica as proof the world is not warming. As anyone who who has studied this is aware, it's the fresh water layer flowing off the ice cap that is freezing. Fresh water freezes a 32 F degrees, salt water freezes at 26 F degrees. So the ocean surface is freezing at much higher temperature than in the past. Because there is an ever higher melt rate of fresh water sitting on top of the ocean.

But as this was happening , something else, far more worrisome was taking place. The melt season is 90 days longer. It melts sooner, it freezes later. The Antarctic peninsula has warmed by 11 F degrees in the last 50 years.

Nobody told the krill.

All this change has slammed this key species in the food web. The Arctic gets lot's of focus, but the changes at the bottom of the world are more more worrisome. I wish everyone would watch this program. It's a very important piece of the new puzzle we find ourselves in.
Quoting 140. RobertWC:

For the last few years we have heard the deniers harp on the slight growth on sea ice around Antarctica as proof the world is not warming.


Not this year:

Quoting 15. Drakoen:

If the ECMWF messes this up it's not going to look good for that model at all, especially with the poorly handling of our Blizzard.
Beautiful sunny day this past Saturday right? ;^)
Link

The petition is gaining traction! Help us get the weather obs for DC moved. Sign it and share it with anyone in the weather community that you know
Of course Brooklyn was nice and cleared (though the people parked there, lol), New York has a bit of an advantage as far as resources/infrastructure are concerned, just a bit..

Quoting 134. BaltimoreBrian:

NASA: Supercomputer Model Shows the Flow of #Blizzard2016




Neat the way you could see the snowbands get more intense right off the coast.
Quoting 118. sar2401:

The guy is wearing a YouTube Jacket? Strange white plastic sunglasses, no helmet, and snowboarding among NYC cabs known to turn directly in front of even large vehicles for no apparent reason. Yeah, awesome, dude.


This sure beats us as kids hooking on the back of cars and sliding for blocks at a time!
Coastal flooding in south Jersey and Delaware [Link]
147. vis0

Quoting 42. Tazmanian:

whats the best 4k TV for around $699 ?
i still think the Euro was leaning towards doing worse as its runs were closer to Thursday Euro kept nudging storm southward till EURO became stuck on Thursday, anyone remembers me asking STS** to watch for a more northern push (no one remembers?, darn), GFS did better, NAM best.

Remember what became Alex was to not even form even was considered not making TS whle 1/3rd into mid ATL.

Jonas was to head out to sea at Dc's Lat but not as far pout to sea as as Alex in model runs 7-8 days out, .

The next "storm-to-be" 6-7 days out is being sent a 50-100 miles just off and up the coast.

Notice how Joanus' northern band was seemingly being forced to head back west while its southern front/tail was heading out to sea then once the southern Jet cleared Jonas,  oh 800 miles away from NYC it yanks Jonus out to sea.

Could it be something was having a tug-o-war with El Nio's  energy flow embedded in a southern jet-stream and when a plume of energy from ENSO/El Nio flow with a higher energy force of 2.1/2.2 passed by Jonas's eastern side it yanked Jonas eastward and won the tug-o-war?
(post a VID later ~AM Mon on this blog showing this IF i REMEMBER)


**Not picking on STS, am a fan of STSs enthusiasm .  When others say why doesn't STS post when reports lean towards La Nia?
He does post some La Nia but no where near as much as when STS posts what he thinks will happen and in recent years STS favours El Nio formations. So STS is going to post things that help present STSs point of view. 

Its like asking a supporter of "political party A" to post comments favouring what most think will be the winner "political party B's candidate. Not going to happen as supporter of  "political part A" will post all the positive things of party A.
As long as STS does not state his comments are scientific fact its okay, heck look at me i have a trillion dollar device that most think is fake and i'm okay (sound as if ventriloquist cursing coming from throat) with that.

Taz go to my zilly blog pg.6 read comment #288 its on 4k TVs (THERE) UNDERSTAND ad robots will point you towards the store my links send you to, so you might see more Ads from that NYC store on your web pages till you reset the ADchoice ADs back to your area.

As to the brand you mentioned i like to test LCD TVs with a DVD of confetti OF MANY COLOURS  falling.  See if the monitor/TV cannot reproduce good HD the confetti looks grainy-ish .  Also play a DVD of things in shades of grey THAT HAVE DETAIL  moving in and out of focus  to see if the picture can REALLY SHOW darker colour detail. (The consultation bill is in the snail-mail)
Quoting 147. vis0:


i still think the Euro was leaning towards doing worse as its runs were closer to Thursday Euro kept nudging storm southward till EURO became stuck on Thursday, anyone remembers me asking STS** to watch for a more northern push (no one remembers?, darn), GFS did better, NAM best.

Remember what became Alex was to not even form even was considered not making TS whle 1/3rd into mid ATL.

Jonas was to head out to sea at Dc's Lat but not as far pout to sea as as Alex in model runs 7-8 days out, .

The next "storm-to-be" 6-7 days out is being sent a 50-100 miles just off and up the coast.

Notice how Joanus' northern band was seemingly being forced to head back west while its southern front/tail was heading out to sea then once the southern Jet cleared Jonas,  oh 800 miles away from NYC it yanks Jonus out to sea.

Could it be something was having a tug-o-war with El Nio's  energy flow embedded in a southern jet-stream and when a plume of energy from ENSO/El Nio flow with a higher energy force of 2.1/2.2 passed by Jonas's eastern side it yanked Jonas eastward and won the tug-o-war?
(post a VID later ~AM Mon on this blog showing this IF i REMEMBER)


**Not picking on STS, am a fan of STSs enthusiasm .  When others say why doesn't STS post when reports lean towards La Nia?
He does post some La Nia but no where near as much as when STS posts what he thinks will happen and in recent years STS favours El Nio formations. So STS is going to post things that help present STSs point of view. 

Its like asking a supporter of "political party A" to post comments favouring what most think will be the winner "political party B's candidate. Not going to happen as supporter of  "political part A" will post all the positive things of party A.
As long as STS does not state his comments are scientific fact its okay, heck look at me i have a trillion dollar device that most think is fake and i'm okay (sound as if ventriloquist cursing coming from throat) with that.

Taz go to my zilly blog pg.6 read comment #288 its on 4k TVs (THERE) UNDERSTAND ad robots will point you towards the store my links send you to, so you might see more Ads from that NYC store on your web pages till you reset the ADchoice ADs back to your area.

As to the brand you mentioned i like to test LCD TVs with a DVD of confetti OF MANY COLOURS  falling.  See if the monitor/TV cannot reproduce good HD the confetti looks grainy-ish .  Also play a DVD of things in shades of grey THAT HAVE DETAIL  moving in and out of focus  to see if the picture can REALLY SHOW darker colour detail. (The consultation bill is in the snail-mail)

Regardless of the progress of El Nino, La Nina, storms, and the general parade of weather, my fiance absolutely had to have a new TV for Christmas, since our current 32" HD TV was hopelessly out of date, being two years old and all. I rarely watch TV, and when I do, it's usually TWC when we have bad weather here, much to her annoyance. She enjoys shows like American Idol, much to my annoyance, so at least we both annoy each other equally. I've found this is the foundation to a good relationship. Anyway, after much online searching and model comparison, me being slightly obsessive about such things, I ended up with a 50" Hisense 4K TV. That thing is the size of a drive in movie screen. I can now see every skin flaw and stray whisker on all my few favorite stars. TWC babes are...well, what can I say, just awesome. You can see details that only their mother or current boyfriend should see. It was only $578 from Amazon with free shipping. Really, an amazing price, and a purchase that made her happy and cranks me off. Every time I see it, it reminds me of the ham radio I could have bought with that money. Ham radios annoy her too. :-)
Quoting 145. trunkmonkey:



This sure beats us as kids hooking on the back of cars and sliding for blocks at a time!
Yeah, I used to hang off trucks and do that. No YouTube then, so my exploits only live in my memory. No white plastic sunglasses either.
Quoting 1295. Seattleite:



I just finished reading a book called "The Next Tsunami" by Bonnie Henderson. The book follows the story of various geologists and how they "discovered" the Cascadia subduction zone, and then their uncovering the PNW history of major tsunamis. It's both fascinating and frightening that it wasn't until the late 1980's that anyone really began to understand what is capable of happening here. Which, given the time it took to convince the local politicians, means that only buildings built after roughly 1995 are built with any significant seismic standards at all. When (not if) the earthquake hits, they expect over 1000 masonry buildings in Seattle to completely collapse. That's only Seattle, Portland OR is far worse off...


A megathrust near a city like Seattle/Tacoma or Portland, even Vancouver (BC, but I guess WA too) could be one of the largest billion-dollar disasters ever (maybe way up there in the likes of Andrew, Sandy, and Katrina). And if it triggered any volcanic activity of Hood or Rainier, keep tacking it on.
If yesterday's snowstorm doesn't prove that DCA is unreliable and unfit to be D.C's official weather station then I don't know what will.
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

If yesterday's snowstorm doesn't prove that DCA is unreliable and unfit to be D.C's official weather station then I don't know what will.


I take it you signed the petition?

So did I. An airport should have adequate weather measurements. Forecasts and local weather data are sorta important for planes and such.
January 18, 2016: MODIS Aqua true color image showing Mississippi River sediment plume in Lake Pontchartrain due to the Bonnet Carre Spillway Opening

Quoting 96. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

need one of these o about 18000 dollars


Ya know, if I had a spare 18 grand lying around (after buying an even more gigantic TV, of course), I'd buy one of those. Looks like it would be fun driving around the back 40, chasing squirrels. Then I'd leave it parked in the driveway along about December 1, just to freak out the neighbors.
Quoting 153. win1gamegiantsplease:



I take it you signed the petition?

So did I. An airport should have adequate weather measurements. Forecasts and local weather data are sorta important for planes and such.
I did sign it and my biggest complaint was that,it was in VIRGINIA.D.C's weather needs to be represented by D.C and not Virginia.
Quoting 153. win1gamegiantsplease:



I take it you signed the petition?

So did I. An airport should have adequate weather measurements. Forecasts and local weather data are sorta important for planes and such.
Is the issue National isn't the right place for observations or how the observations and measurements are being done isn't correct? I'm generally in favor of using airports for observations, and National (Ronald Reagan National now) is the closest airport to DC. The problem with the White House is the observations are done by NPS personnel. I don't know why they would be any better trained than the NWS contract workers at National. There are contract observers at a fair number of airports. I haven't heard of these kinds of problems at any of them. The biggest issue with the White House site is you are dependent on workers who don't have weather observations as their main duty, and the continuing observations are subject to NPS budget constraints. Seems like fixing whatever's wrong at National makes more sense.
Quoting 81. Twinkster:

Why is that?
Because security at the White House would be a huge pain. And the Smithsonian is a good central location.
159. vis0

Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

The snow blower broke down on my husband yesterday.Its a good thing I don't get rid of my shovels after every winter.We had three ones in the shed which were still in good shape and used those to shovel the snow with this morning.Our street still hasn't been fully plowed.Schools across the area are closed tomorrow again.The threat for Thursday night into Friday is starting to appear in the long run.
What ya need is to cover the yard/driveway with a light but strong tarp.
Secure the tarp to the yard near the street side with no greater space than a foot between securing rods, the tarps side are free to move.
If you can zip(pper) the other 3 edges do so or use temporary securing rods on side near home.
When an inch of snow falls you get the sons and hubby to grab the tarp end near the house and whip it like one setting the blanket on a just to be made bed.
It whips the snow** into the street.





tufr to dyslexics is turf, not tofu.

** (and the left behind sporting equipment, neighbors kid and pets)
Quoting 157. sar2401:

Is the issue National isn't the right place for observations or how the observations and measurements are being done isn't correct? I'm generally in favor of using airports for observations, and National (Ronald Reagan National now) is the closest airport to DC. The problem with the White House is the observations are done by NPS personnel. I don't know why they would be any better trained than the NWS contract workers at National. There are contract observers at a fair number of airports. I haven't heard of these kinds of problems at any of them. The biggest issue with the White House site is you are dependent on workers who don't have weather observations as their main duty, and the continuing observations are subject to NPS budget constraints. Seems like fixing whatever's wrong at National makes more sense.


The former I believe, I was told in the last blog that DCA was at a pretty low elevation. Whether that's indicative of the other side of the river I'd have to look at contour elevation maps since I don't know the area all that well. At least looking at how DCA got their measurements would be okay, but GWU and American are on the other side, so is the Smithsonian. That would be an interesting place to do it.
Quoting 151. win1gamegiantsplease:



A megathrust near a city like Seattle/Tacoma or Portland, even Vancouver (BC, but I guess WA too) could be one of the largest billion-dollar disasters ever (maybe way up there in the likes of Andrew, Sandy, and Katrina). And if it triggered any volcanic activity of Hood or Rainier, keep tacking it on.

Fortunately, that would't happen. The megaquake in Japan, for instance, didn't trigger Mt. Fuji, The volcanoes associated with subduction zones are only indirectly linked to the motion of the plates.
This morning I had a 50% chance of getting one or both of my teams in the Super Bowl. Not so now, both lost. But the weather was nice for both games.....lol
Quoting 98. Climate175:





I wonder how many get the actual reference.
Quoting 161. BayFog:


Fortunately, that would't happen. The megaquake in Japan, for instance, didn't trigger Mt. Fuji, The volcanoes associated with subduction zones are only indirectly linked to the motion of the plates.


Well maybe not immediately.

[Link]
Quoting 163. GeorgiaStormz:



I wonder how many get the actual reference :P


Thrones?
Quoting 163. GeorgiaStormz:




I wonder how many get the actual reference.
I know its from a rapper but I can't remember who though.
167. vis0

Quoting 114. sar2401:

Thank you, Bob. You and your cohorts did a great job rounding up all the facts and figures from a whopper storm. The amazing thing watching that time lapse was seeing the flurries we got coming all the way down the backside of the low as it started moving north. I can now report, after checking the snowboard and the four measurements with my calibrated old time Weather Bureau measuring stick, my storm total was - zero. Just the way I like it. It did bottom out at 22 this morning though, which is about 11 degrees below average, and quite enough of that kind of thing for a while too.

The next system for Wednesday night and Thursday will be another nail biter down here. How far south will the front end up, do we see a closed low form on it? Does a low form soon enough to allow moisture while still in throes of cold air or late enough that it's all rain? Is the low neutrally or negatively tilted, which affects the chances of severe weather? Does the low cross Florida and out into the Atlantic before turning north or go inland over Georgia and up the coast like the last storm? All the fine details models aren't good at, and probably won't start to come into agreement about until we are within a day or two out. As with the last storm, the formation of the ULL inland and the slightly more northern position of the low compared to the models made all the difference between three inches of snow in Central Park or 28 inches of snow. It does appear that, after whatever this system becomes, we enter at least a quasi-zonal flow for a week, giving some respite from big snowstorms in the East, but maybe some bigger storms out West. We shall see.
why not both coasts? the abundant energy is in the   aGW/Nino    air.
Probably already posted but 66" Mount Mitchell, NC!

Link

Quoting 163. GeorgiaStormz:




I wonder how many get the actual reference.
I just saw it and thought it was funny.
Quoting 168. Walshy:

Probably already posted but 66" Mount Mitchell, NC!

Link




Which is impressive, but as the article states, the record for most snowfall in a 24-hour period was March 1993. I bet the winds were howling though in the Blue Ridge/Black Mtns.
I'm patiently waiting for the big clouds :)

@climate175 I got the reference, I thought georgiastormz was talking about vandenberghe's post only. Oops.
Quoting 158. BaltimoreBrian:

Because security at the White House would be a huge pain. And the Smithsonian is a good central location.


Why would security be a pain? All you have to do is measure the snow. They reported their total during the storm, right? No difference. Just be official.
Quoting 155. sar2401:

Ya know, if I had a spare 18 grand lying around (after buying an even more gigantic TV, of course), I'd buy one of those. Looks like it would be fun driving around the back 40, chasing squirrels. Then I'd leave it parked in the driveway along about December 1, just to freak out the neighbors.

Freak out? I would think that in E. Central Alabama they might be envious of your big rototiller.
Quoting 161. BayFog:


Fortunately, that would't happen. The megaquake in Japan, for instance, didn't trigger Mt. Fuji, The volcanoes associated with subduction zones are only indirectly linked to the motion of the plates.


I wonder if the quake could cause the predicted colapse of Mt. Rainier.
Link
Quoting 175. chasSoCal:



I wonder if the quake could cause the predicted colapse of Mt. Rainier.
Link


Interesting read. Rainier is still a monster, I didn't know it was active until relatively recently. But it's not just active, it is one of the most active in the range seismically. St. Helens and Lassen being the other two most active though Hood and Baker have lots of sulfuric gas acivity that are present.
Last night was advection cooling night on the FL peninsula, freezing temps stayed north of I-4. Tonight is the dreaded radiational cooling aftermath. I see frost warnings have been extended south of Okeechobee, down to Charlotte County on the west coast interior. Thankfully the winds are slowly veering onshore the ECFL coast, it looks like the frost will stay west of I-95, at least south of the Cape.
Quoting 151. win1gamegiantsplease:



A megathrust near a city like Seattle/Tacoma or Portland, even Vancouver (BC, but I guess WA too) could be one of the largest billion-dollar disasters ever (maybe way up there in the likes of Andrew, Sandy, and Katrina). And if it triggered any volcanic activity of Hood or Rainier, keep tacking it on.


A Cascadia megathrust earthquake would cost multiple billions of dollars. First there is the tsunami that would effect the entire West Coast (and AK too!), then you have the effects of the earthquake itself further inland. Estimates are that any person on the coast from BC to OR would have 15 - 20 minutes to high tail it up a large hill before the waves come. The *conservative* estimates say 10,000 dead. To say that the infrastructure is inadequate is putting it mildly. Seriously, Vancouver has water treatment and power facilities located on alluvial soil, Seattle's downtown is built on slushy tidal flats, Portland is mostly situated on alluvial soil near the Columbia River. There is simply no other natural disaster that could impact our country in a more profound way than a 9+ earthquake in Cascadia. Not only that, it's powerful enough to send 40ft waves to Japan....

In fact, to highlight this scenario the Seattle PI put out a great article today showing the development of a Cascadia tsunami and it's impacts around the globe.
Quoting 176. win1gamegiantsplease:



Interesting read. Rainier is still a monster, I didn't know it was active until relatively recently. But it's not just active, it is one of the most active in the range seismically. St. Helens and Lassen being the other two most active though Hood and Baker have lots of sulfuric gas acivity that are present.


Mt. Rainier is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. In fact, it is listed as a Decade Volcano. It is the only decade volcano in the United States. From parts of South Seattle, all the way south through Tacoma, home to some 1 million people, live on top of previous lahars. (Note: not a single lahar, but all of them collectively).
Quoting 179. Seattleite:



Mt. Rainier is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. In fact, it is listed as a Decade Volcano. It is the only decade volcano in the United States. From parts of South Seattle, all the way south through Tacoma, home to some 1 million people, live on top of previous lahars. (Note: not a single lahar, but all of them collectively).


Only decade volcano in the lower 48. Mauna Loa is also a very active and dangerous volcano. It is also huuuge.
Quoting 180. win1gamegiantsplease:



Only decade volcano in the lower 48. Mauna Loa is also a very active and dangerous volcano. It is also huuuge.


My apologies! You are correct. Mauna Loa is far more active than Mt. Rainier. If you look at the Cascade volcano wiki page, under the Human History section there is a great chart displaying the known activity of all the Cascade volcanoes for the last 4000 years. You'll notice that Rainier is roughly "middle of the road." with only 4 known periods of volcanic activity. This compares to Mt. St. Helens with over 12. Granted it's only 4000 years, and that's a blink of an eye in geology.
When the low broke free, it went tracking NE quick!

Quoting 134. BaltimoreBrian:

NASA: Supercomputer Model Shows the Flow of #Blizzard2016


Now that's just funny!

BTW I think he resides in SE Alabama.

Quoting 174. oldnewmex:


Freak out? I would think that in E. Central Alabama they might be envious of your big rototiller.
Strong earthquake hits Med between Morocco and Spain
The Local (Spain), Published: 25 Jan 2016 08:51 GMT+01:00
A strong 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck early on Monday in the Mediterranean between Morocco and Spain, the US Geological Survey said
The shallow quake hit at 4:22 am (0422 GMT) 62 kilometres (39 miles) north of the Moroccan city of Al Hoceima and 164 kilometres east-southeast of Gibraltar, the USGS said.
It was followed by a 5.3-magnitude tremor.
In its initial assessment of the quake's impact, the USGS said there was "a low likelihood of casualties and damage". ...


Fifty dead and thousands stranded as cold snap hits East Asia
BBC, 3 hours ago
A cold snap sweeping across East Asia has led to more than 50 deaths in Taiwan and stranded at least 60,000 tourists in South Korea.
Taiwanese media reported a rash of deaths from hypothermia and cardiac disease following a sudden drop in temperature over the weekend.
Meanwhile heavy snow forced the closure of the airport on the Korean holiday island of Jeju, cancelling flights.
The cold spell has also hit Hong Kong, southern China and Japan.


Record hot years almost certainly caused by man-made warming
Source: Reuters - Mon, 25 Jan 2016 10:00 GMT
OSLO, Jan 25 (Reuters) - A record-breaking string of hot years since 2000 is almost certainly a sign of man-made global warming, with vanishingly small chances that it was caused by random, natural swings, a study showed on Monday. ...
Quoting 161. BayFog:


Fortunately, that would't happen. The megaquake in Japan, for instance, didn't trigger Mt. Fuji, The volcanoes associated with subduction zones are only indirectly linked to the motion of the plates.
Earthquakes have caused volcanic eruptions.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

Yeah, I used to hang off trucks and do that. No YouTube then, so my exploits only live in my memory. No white plastic sunglasses either.


Yeah SAR, it's better that way, otherwise we would have been jammed up with our parents or worse!
i climbed mauna loa when i was in my twenties long two day journey from the summit of mauna kea i posted a photo of me at the summit cabin with a snowman.
mauna loa i believe is the largest mountain in the world if you count it coming up from the bottom of the ocean
191. MahFL
Lake Shasta rose another 1 %.

46% of Total Capacity
69% of Historical Avg. For This Date

Good Morning. Hoping that our Bloggers from up North in the Eastern Seaboard are safe and sound and awaiting reports on what happened over the weekend for them and the current situation. Here is the forecast chart for today and highs for today:
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


0Z Euro showing 6" to 8" of rain from Near Tampa to Melbourne with 3" to 5" here in Orlando. That is a heck of a lot of rain also there could be tornadoes around Wednesday & Wednesday night so take heed of all warnings that come out this week as some of these tornadoes could be strong ones.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER
FLOW APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITHIN A BELT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MEXICAN PLATEAU...IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.

SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS PERSIST CONCERNING THIS AND
RELATED DEVELOPMENTS...PARTICULARLY AT THE SMALLER SCALES. THIS
INCLUDES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OF NOTE...SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF/ECENS...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
EVOLUTION OF A CYCLONE OF AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...TO THE WEST OF TAMPA...BY 12Z THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

THERE APPEARS AT LEAST BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT A
PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...EMANATING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PROBABLY WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES...AND SURFACE DEW POINT INCREASES THROUGH THE MID/UPPER
60S...PERHAPS TO NEAR 70F ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS AROUND
MIAMI BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
A NUMBER OF MODELS DO APPEAR SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER
OF STORMS...DRIVEN BY ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...MAY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
AROUND/SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT STRENGTHENING OF WIND
FIELDS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADOES. IT SEEMS AT LEAST IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
IMPACTED...AND IF TIMING COINCIDES FAVORABLY WITH AT LEAST WEAK
INLAND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS THREAT MAY
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ORLANDO
METROPOLITAN AREA AND MELBOURNE VICINITY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH SMALLER-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.
THESE MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...AND
OTHER UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME /DAY 3/...APPEAR TOO
LARGE TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

Good Morning All..

Its a beautiful cold day here in eastern NC..mainly because of the joy from Panther Fans after winning the NFC Championship and heading to the Superbowl..The game last night was awesome and no one in the stands noticed the cold whatsover.

Thanks to the field crew at Bank Of America who protected the field very well. The NCDOT treated the roads before the storm which were smooth sailing before and after the game.

I'm on limited hours of sleep but still have to work so I just popped in to gloat..literally..

Denver has a good defense but their hands are going to be full at the SB the way the Panthers can put up points.....Some of the most effortless execution, and great defensive backs, that I have seen in the NFL in a long time.

And no offense to our NE bloggers in the aftermath of the storm; I am over the Patriots.............. :)
All time wettest January on tap for many across C & S FL after this week's rains.

Euro
Several stations in the UK have surpassed their January record readings (source): Lossiemouth/Scotland with 59F, Cardiff/Wales with 57.2F, Scatsa/Shetland Islands (very far north!) with 51.8F (edit: and more stations are joining the party of breaking records of January: now also in Morocco, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany).



Temperatures reach 16C as unseasonably warm weather hits North Wales
Daily Post, 10:29, 25 Jan 2016
Heavy rain and high winds are on the way as the storm which covered parts of the US in snow heads across the Atlantic ...


Former Snowzilla (left side) aiming at Ireland and the UK.
Not out of the question El-Nino will last all year.

Significant kelvin Wave redeveloping


CFSv2
From Miami NWS...

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS...WHILE STILL DIFFERING IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...CONTINUE TO INDICATE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES THAT COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION FORECAST PWAT`S
DURING THIS PERIOD...AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A RISK OF AT LEAST URBAN TYPE
MINOR FLOODING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST PWAT`S DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE IN THE RANGE OF THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN A 30 YEAR
CLIMATOLOGY...RE-EMPHASIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO.

Link
Thinking this year is similar to 1992. Reason for this thinking is the fact that this El-Nino may last well into similar if not longer based off some of these recent model runs. If this does occur then this El-Nino matches the 1991/1992 event meaning a slow hurricane season with some pretty notable hits potentially for the US later in the season. So slow season with some potentially major impacts to the US potentially similar to 1992.

CFSv2 for October.


Precip distribution looks very much like El-Nino this upcoming Fall

Quoting 201. StormTrackerScott:

Thinking this year is similar to 1992. Reason for this thinking is the fact that this El-Nino may last well into similar if not longer based off some of these recent model runs. If this does occur then this El-Nino matches the 1991/1992 event meaning a slow hurricane season with some pretty notable hits potentially for the US later in the season. So slow season with some potentially major impacts to the US potentially similar to 1992.

CFSv2 for October.


Precip distribution looks very much like El-Nino this upcoming Fall




The big shock in 1992 was cooling from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption leading to a very cool summer in the upper midwest and northeast. July in the Mid Atlantic was hot but from dynamics. August and June were remarkably cool . The cold was esp. pronounced at high latitudes the much diminished summer polar vortex was not as diminished that year. There was frost into Indiana in June. Fortunately there was no early polar outbreak and frost though.
Quoting 202. georgevandenberghe:



The big shock in 1992 was cooling from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption leading to a very cool summer in the upper midwest and northeast. July in the Mid Atlantic was hot but from dynamics. August and June were remarkably cool . The cold was esp. pronounced at high latitudes the much diminished summer polar vortex was not as diminished that year. There was frost into Indiana in June. Fortunately there was no early polar outbreak and frost though.


In terms of ENSO sure seems that this will be no quick decline to la-Nina like in 1998. Looks more like 1992 in terms of transition of this ENSO event. So with that high overall numbers seems low to me however there was Andrew that year so this could be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Quoting 160. win1gamegiantsplease:



The former I believe, I was told in the last blog that DCA was at a pretty low elevation. Whether that's indicative of the other side of the river I'd have to look at contour elevation maps since I don't know the area all that well. At least looking at how DCA got their measurements would be okay, but GWU and American are on the other side, so is the Smithsonian. That would be an interesting place to do it.


Most of the southeast half of the DC area is at low elevation and for elevation DCA would be representative. My own house in Riverdale is at 30 feet elevation. Portions of the NW district are a few hundred feet above sea level and that makes a difference in some snow situations. Elevation increases sharply to a few hundred feet west and northwest of the District.. we like most big East Coast cities are right on the fall line where river navigation stops. DCA though is right on the river and usually runs very warm at night for this reason. It also occasionally runs cold on winter and early spring days with light winds from the south off the river. DCA's record HIGH winter minimum temperature is lower than either IAD or BWI because of this, both days were it was breached at the latter two got a few puffs of wind off the river cooling DCA. I'd prefer another site for the "Official" observation.
Quoting 177. guygee:

Last night was advection cooling night on the FL peninsula, freezing temps stayed north of I-4. Tonight is the dreaded radiational cooling aftermath. I see frost warnings have been extended south of Okeechobee, down to Charlotte County on the west coast interior. Thankfully the winds are slowly veering onshore the the ECFL coast, it looks like the frost will stay west of I-95, at least south of the Cape.
I had quite a thick layer of frost on my car this morning (2 blocks north of McDill AFB). The temperature reading was 38F
Quoting 140. RobertWC:

So last night I re-watched the NOVA program :

Mystery Beneath the Ice

This is about the crash of the krill populations around Antarctica. By 50%, and in some places 90%. And they explain why this happening.

For the last few years we have heard the deniers harp on the slight growth on sea ice around Antarctica as proof the world is not warming. As anyone who who has studied this is aware, it's the fresh water layer flowing off the ice cap that is freezing. Fresh water freezes a 32 F degrees, salt water freezes at 26 F degrees. So the ocean surface is freezing at much higher temperature than in the past. Because there is an ever higher melt rate of fresh water sitting on top of the ocean.

But as this was happening , something else, far more worrisome was taking place. The melt season is 90 days longer. It melts sooner, it freezes later. The Antarctic peninsula has warmed by 11 F degrees in the last 50 years.

Nobody told the krill.

All this change has slammed this key species in the food web. The Arctic gets lot's of focus, but the changes at the bottom of the world are more more worrisome. I wish everyone would watch this program. It's a very important piece of the new puzzle we find ourselves in.


Ocean water freezes at about 28F; otherwise right.
February looks cold for the south..

Quoting 136. sar2401:

Most cold weather NWS offices have heated rain gauges so the liquid content snow and freezing rain can be measured properly. However, when it's snowing at 3" per hour, even a good heated gauge can be overwhelmed and lose some snow. Most offices do compare the liquid equivalent and snow depth measures to make sure they aren't out of whack. I don't know how it's done at Washington National though.

Because of eddy effects around a guage opening, guages tend to underreport liquid equivalent in wind driven snow. The most accurate way to get water equivalent from such an event is with a core sample post event but I don't think this is in NWS standards; I think they still use guage catch. I am NOT a trained observer though, many others on this blog probably know more.
Can't believe the snow totals north of DC. Some on here said they wouldn't get anything. LOL.
well...el nino continues to age fast.........dropping to 2.5 c and 20 percent from its high....in comparison.....1998 over the same time period only dropped 10 percent......

could this be why the dynamical average of models is now showing la nina values mid summer?

one more post before i head on out....while a huge anomaly has left....we're seeing anomalies flow the other way.....adios el nino


Quoting 204. georgevandenberghe:



Most of the southeast half of the DC area is at low elevation and for elevation DCA would be representative. My own house in Riverdale is at 30 feet elevation. Portions of the NW district are a few hundred feet above sea level and that makes a difference in some snow situations. Elevation increases sharply to a few hundred feet west and northwest of the District.. we like most big East Coast cities are right on the fall line where river navigation stops. DCA though is right on the river and usually runs very warm at night for this reason. It also occasionally runs cold on winter and early spring days with light winds from the south off the river. DCA's record HIGH winter minimum temperature is lower than either IAD or BWI because of this, both days were it was breached at the latter two got a few puffs of wind off the river cooling DCA. I'd prefer another site for the "Official" observation.


That makes sense, it is right on the river. How much snow did you get locally?
Quoting 211. ricderr:

one more post before i head on out....while a huge anomaly has left....we're seeing anomalies flow the other way.....adios el nino



Hi Ricder, I wonder how strong this Nina will be, come early to mid summer according to the models, could it be a Super Nina? Should make for an active hurricane season this summer, and maybe late spring, along with other variables, this could be a very interesting summer. Will the crash of the Nino and the emergence of the Nina have a noticeable impact on the upcoming tornado season?
Can't believe all the made-up controversy over the DC snowfall numbers. C'mon folks, as Tom Brady would say, this isn't ISIS. Calm down.

I'm sure they weren't taking measurements every six hours and summing them together during the February 1899 blizzard or during the Knickerbocker Storm of 1922. If anything, the DC readings are more comparable to those storms, not less, than surrounding observations. The real travesty is the NWS continues to promulgate the myth that "official" records mean something when they are spliced from numerous disparate locations. There seems to be a growing awareness that weather and climatological conditions can vary markedly over short distances and altitudinal changes.

Take Pittsburgh for instance. The oldest records used to be taken downtown on a rooftop using a Stevenson screen, elevation unknown (probably 800-900'). Now they are taken at ground-level with sophisticated aerated temperature sensing equipment at a location 15-20 miles WNW of the city, at an elevation of approximately 1200'. This creates the appearance of a cooling trend since the downtown site was as much as 5 degrees warmer than the current location.

The NWS, instead of decommissioning the old records, doubled down on its flawed approach with ThreadEx. This had the effect of threading disparate records in many locations which previously had records for a single site. These so-called "official" records come with the caveat that they aren't supposed to be used for climatological purposes, but the general public doesn't understand. Hence, why you always hear the old refrain - but, but it was warmer in 1880... Time to get rid of ThreadEx and only certify as to records taken at the same (or similar) location - i.e. a move of a couple hundred yards is probably acceptable. And there's no way of accounting for the bias that most records in the past were taken from rooftops, even at the airport locations. It seems like a lot of the change to ground-level readings occurred in the mid-1970s, prior to that the temperature data were often taken on the rooftop of terminal buildings and the like.
216. MahFL
Quoting 205. SouthTampa:

I had quite a thick layer of frost on my car this morning (2 blocks north of McDill AFB). The temperature reading was 38F


Heaviest frost of the year observed here in OP, temp was 33F.
Quoting 216. MahFL:



Heaviest frost of the year observed here in OP, temp was 33F.


I had 41 degrees this morning (south Fort Myers) with frost on the golf course away from the house. Expecting temperatures in the low 70s today so it should end up being a beautiful day. It's already 60 degrees so it's warming up fast here.
Quoting 213. win1gamegiantsplease:



That makes sense, it is right on the river. How much snow did you get locally?


I got 16" on the ground just 1.5 miles SE of UMD college park campus. I suspect about 20" had I used
a snow board.
Quoting 194. ncstorm:

Good Morning All..

Its a beautiful cold day here in eastern NC..mainly because of the joy from Panther Fans after winning the NFC Championship and heading to the Superbowl..The game last night was awesome and no one in the stands noticed the cold whatsover.

Thanks to the field crew at Bank Of America who protected the field very well. The NCDOT treated the roads before the storm which were smooth sailing before and after the game.

I'm on limited hours of sleep but still have to work so I just popped in to gloat..literally..




Many people feel this way about the outcome of the Patriots contest.
Looks like a little weakening



Sperm whale deaths: Fifth whale washed up in Lincolnshire
BBC, 38 minutes ago

Why do sperm whales wash up on beaches?



BTW, in Germany and the Netherlands a total of 12 dead or dying whales had been washed up earlier this month.
'morning everyone. Here are the arctic temps in twelve hours according to the GFS.

Above freezing temps at the geographic North Pole today? It may not happen, but it wouldn't miss by much... Next, the 5-day forecast (mean temp.anom./1979-2000) beginning now.

Arctic region mean temp anomaly is 1.91 C today.
El Nino forecast from NOAA released today.

El Nino expected to weaken early Spring.

Full link below

Link
12PM today... clear.



Quoting 151. win1gamegiantsplease:



A megathrust near a city like Seattle/Tacoma or Portland, even Vancouver (BC, but I guess WA too) could be one of the largest billion-dollar disasters ever (maybe way up there in the likes of Andrew, Sandy, and Katrina). And if it triggered any volcanic activity of Hood or Rainier, keep tacking it on.



I work in downtown Portland. Two days a week (today), my office is on "fill", in what used to be an oxbow lake of Columbia River. A decent quake, and we're swimming. The other days are in downtown proper. We had a safety talk last month. When asked about earthquake procedures: for a minor quake - duck into a doorway, for a major quake - grab something and enjoy the ride down. I'm on 9 of 10 floors - we have a chance of survival. But, having streetcar or Max on three sides of the building - we'll have to deal with downed high-voltage wires. We don't have to worry about a tsunami, as we're 90 miles from coast (with a mountain range in between). But a large part of the City will definitely sink.
Quoting 197. StormTrackerScott:

All time wettest January on tap for many across C & S FL after this week's rains.

Euro



Yeah this looks to be the most major system of the month in terms of rain potential, very strong large scale forcing combing with PW's near the record observed and a surface low track across Central FL means there is likely to going to be some very hefty rain totals in some areas.

The severe potential is much trickier for now still due to model discrepancy as the SPC discussed.
NAM has the storm system closer to the coast for late next week.It actually throws snow back into D.C Thursday night.It is still unclear what will actually happen but it is something to keep a eye on.
Quoting 140. RobertWC:

So last night I re-watched the NOVA program :

Mystery Beneath the Ice

This is about the crash of the krill populations around Antarctica. By 50%, and in some places 90%. And they explain why this happening.

For the last few years we have heard the deniers harp on the slight growth on sea ice around Antarctica as proof the world is not warming. As anyone who who has studied this is aware, it's the fresh water layer flowing off the ice cap that is freezing. Fresh water freezes a 32 F degrees, salt water freezes at 26 F degrees. So the ocean surface is freezing at much higher temperature than in the past. Because there is an ever higher melt rate of fresh water sitting on top of the ocean.

But as this was happening , something else, far more worrisome was taking place. The melt season is 90 days longer. It melts sooner, it freezes later. The Antarctic peninsula has warmed by 11 F degrees in the last 50 years.

Nobody told the krill.

All this change has slammed this key species in the food web. The Arctic gets lot's of focus, but the changes at the bottom of the world are more more worrisome. I wish everyone would watch this program. It's a very important piece of the new puzzle we find ourselves in.


I quoted this on my G+ stream, with the link - bunch of people who follow me are denialists/"skeptics" so I should have some fun there. :)

Also, saved the link to watch tonight. Thanks!
Quoting 207. hydrus:

February looks cold for the south..




I'm not so sure why that model is producing that output, Ruskin has an nice graphical display for why it will possibly be the opposite, or at least the first half of the month.


Sometimes it gets very cold in Tampa, Florida as you can see on this video I made last night Link

Link / Tim Radford : Arctic And Med Face Hotspot Worries, January 23, 2016 (Climate News Network) /
And it's not just about the Arctic and Med;
"At 1.5 C, we would still see temperature extremes in the Arctic rise by 4.4 C, and a 2.2 C warming of extremes around the Mediterranean basin.
If emissions rates do not change, new research by scientists in Australia shows that the Mediterranean, Brazil and the contiguous US could experience 2 C warming by 2030. (...)
Professor Seneviratne pointed out two years ago that extremes might be more significant in climate change than global averages."

Link / Brian Kahn : Weekend Blizzard Was A "Multi-Billion-Dollar" Disaster, today (Climate Central) /
"In all, the storm affected more than 85 million people directly. But the effects spread out beyond the Eastern Seaboard. Some of the nation's busiest airports canceled an estimated 13,800 flights, sending ripple effects across the U.S. and the globe.
According to Aon Benfield, a reinsurance company, the storm is likely to be classified as a Category 4 or 5 winter storm using the Regional Snowfall Index, a metric which rates the severity of winter storms. It's similar to the Saffir-Simpson scale used to classify hurricanes, but in addition to looking at meteorological metrics like snowfall, it also incorporates population affected to give a more holistic view of how severe a storm was. A Category 4 storm is one that's "crippling" while Category 5 is "extreme."

Link / Sebastien Malo : Atlantic, Caribbean Storms Strengthen With Warming, yesterday (Thomson Reuters Foundation, Climate Central) /
"Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean oceans will grow more than twice as powerful and damaging as ocean temperatures rise from global warming, a new study says. Warming seas could produce more rainfall and far more destructive storm surges of water along the ocean shorelines in the next 50 to 100 years, said the study by U.S. scientists published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
"It could affect the entire Atlantic coast," said William Lau, a co-author and research associate at the University of Maryland's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center." Simulating weather patterns with higher ocean temperatures rising due to global warming, the study found future hurricanes could generate forces 50 to 160 percent more destructive than Sandy."

Much Better, normal is 67/44.....
February is normally the coldest month for North Florida (as well as most parts of the nation during Winter); if we do get a prolonged warm spell in February, that will bit a bit of a "first" for me up here for the past 15 years, and quite the departure in that time frame................Unfortunately, most of the Azaleas already bloomed up here with December record warm temps, and only bloom once a year, so mild temps in Feb won't make a difference in terms of a lack of blooms in the Spring for these particular plants-flowers. The few recent freezes might have killed them for the Spring; they are wilting at the moment around the house as I did not cover them (a very large area in the front and backyard) with blankets or provide any heat otherwise.
In a tweet German National Weatherservice DWD has announced that the weatherstation of Geilenkirchen has set a new record for January for the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia with a reading of 18C=64.4F at 3pm today. Well, really WARM for the last third of January, the time of the year which should be the coldest.

Meanwhile the deathtoll of the short cold spell in East Asia has risen, sadly.
East Asia cold snap 'kills 85 in Taiwan'
BBC, 7 hours ago

Another death:
Explorer Henry Worsley dies in Antarctic crossing
BBC, 42 minutes ago
Mr Worsley, 55, was trying to complete the unfinished journey of his hero, Sir Ernest Shackleton, 100 years later, but in his final audio message, he said: "My summit is just out of reach." ...
Weather forecasting supercomputer gets a $36m upgrade


Excerpt:

ECMWF Director of Research Erland Källén said the upgrade will enable the centre to develop high-resolution forecasts that improve the prediction of severe weather events up to about two weeks ahead.

It will also allow for the introduction of improved data assimilation methods, allowing the centre to use more Earth system observations, and to produce more detailed and better-quality atmospheric composition forecasts.
Quoting 233. weathermanwannabe:

February is normally the coldest month for North Florida (as well as most parts of the nation during Winter); if we do get a prolonged warm spell in February, that will bit a bit of a "first" for me up here for the past 15 years, and quite the departure in that time frame................Unfortunately, most of the Azaleas already bloomed up here with December record warm temps, and only bloom once a year, so mild temps in Feb won't make a difference in terms of a lack of blooms in the Spring for these particular plants-flowers. The few recent freezes might have killed them for the Spring; they are wilting at the moment around the house as I did not cover them (a very large area in the front and backyard) with blankets or provide any heat otherwise.


In most of Florida and the U.S. January averages colder than February.

It is very possible that not all of your buds bloomed and you will still see some azaleas in spring.

It is also, as you say, possible that winter temperatures that these plants normally tolerate will cause damage this year because of the extreme warmth in December.

It's a long shot but ask an oldtimer in your area who was around and observing in 1974 about what happened that year after an extreme warm January, (Lowest all month in TLH, 42F, average 62F 10F above normal) was followed by normal February cold with a min temperature of `18F (( the stuff I remember ???????!! I was in high school, heard this on the "Today" show)

Quoting 224. CaribBoy:

12PM today... clear.






You keep posting those beautiful pictures and everyone from South Carolina to Maine are going to hate you :)
Forecast (Meteo-France) for tomorrow's UK storm (ex Jonas). Wind gusts of more than 100km/h expected on the coast there, some flooding possible from the rain also. No significant snowfall expected on land, the storm's gonna drop some into the Baltic sea later in its track. (T is for Low)


There are also a lot of new monthly temperature records for January 24, 2016 set in France, mainly in the northwest. And it's only the beginning of the above-normal temperature surge forecast this week in Western Europe.
Quoting 238. 999Ai2016:

Forecast (Meteo-France) for tomorrow's UK storm (ex Jonas). Wind gusts of more than 100km/h expected on the coast there, some flooding possible from the rain also. No significant snowfall expected on land, the storm's gonna drop some into the Baltic sea later in its track. (T is for Low)


Be careful with this system: As the Institute in Berlin has changed the sex of poor Jonas, calling him "Karin", the storm should be especially bewildered and furious! :-)
Indeed, those three North Atlantic (unnamed Greenlandic, Judith and Karin) lows look like a furious weather setup. Should make for some nice eye-candy on earth.nullschool.net (winds and waves animation). I hope it won't be too damaging, but it shouldn't, locals do expect this kind of harsh weather in winter, except it used to rain less during these strong storms, and the sea wasn't that high...
Can't believe it'll be 20 years since Bertha and Fran did a one two punch here in the mid-atlantic.I'm still not sure why Bonnie wasn't retired in the spring of 97.
CAPITOL OF INDIA'S NORTHERNMOST STATE - NEW RECORD COLDEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time coldest temperature in Jammu of 0.5 C / 32.9 F was set on January 24, 2016. The previous record of 0.6 C / 33.1 F was set in 1945. Jammu is the winter capitol of Jammu & Kashmir State.

Link
Quoting 242. DCSwithunderscores:

CAPITOL OF INDIA'S NORTHERNMOST STATE - NEW RECORD COLDEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time coldest temperature in Jammu of 0.5 C / 32.9 F was set on January 24, 2016. The previous record of 0.6 C / 33.1 F was set in 1945. Jammu is the winter capitol of Jammu & Kashmir State.

Link


Wow, even Miami FL has gotten colder than that before.
Now if we could just get the same kind of accuracy from our El Nino models for the West coast. I'm glad to know that a massive data-gathering effort is being taken out here in California to aid that process; it's a bit annoying to read a prediction of 1/2-inch of rainfall in the morning and discover that actually > 2 inches fell by nightfall on that same day.

Well, hey! It could've been the other way around...
And now, with the recent coastal events on the U.S. East Coast, we've seen that you don't need a tropical cyclone making landfall to push a record-setting storm surge far inland : prolonged and gusty inshore wind events, or "normal" winter storms are sometimes enough, especially when combined with the full moon's tides.
Quoting 242. DCSwithunderscores:

CAPITOL OF INDIA'S NORTHERNMOST STATE - NEW RECORD COLDEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time coldest temperature in Jammu of 0.5 C / 32.9 F was set on January 24, 2016. The previous record of 0.6 C / 33.1 F was set in 1945. Jammu is the winter capitol of Jammu & Kashmir State.

Link


yes, a few still manage to sneak in even with global temperatures increasing.

Last 30 days, all time records:
High max temp: 10
High min temp: 7
Low max temp:1
Low min temp: 3

Last year, all time records:

High max temp: 137
High min temp: 272
Low max temp: 19
Low min temp: 34
Quoting 244. Vatergeck:

Now if we could just get the same kind of accuracy from our El Nino models for the West coast. I'm glad to know that a massive data-gathering effort is being taken out here in California to aid that process; it's a bit annoying to read a prediction of 1/2-inch of rainfall in the morning and discover that actually > 2 inches fell by nightfall on that same day.

Well, hey! It could've been the other way around...
More often the other way around here in the San Fernando Valley. :^\
Quoting 240. 999Ai2016:

Indeed, those three North Atlantic (unnamed Greenlandic, Judith and Karin) lows look like a furious weather setup. Should make for some nice eye-candy on earth.nullschool.net (winds and waves animation). I hope it won't be too damaging, but it shouldn't, locals do expect this kind of harsh weather in winter, except it used to rain less during these strong storms, and the sea wasn't that high...


Windmap (925hpa) from the fresh ECMWF run for tomorrow. And mind, this may not be the worst system in the days ahead; several models have stronger windstorms in the offing especially for Scotland the next ten days (sparing Germany most of it though what sends German weather freaks once again into deep despair: no more winter weather in sight and probably no exciting storms either).


Map of precipitation for tomorrow. Apart from the rain for the British Isles (green), notice more purple stuff for the Black Sea area = snow. Parts of Turkey and other countries in the region were pretty much snowed in recently. But I decided not to post any videos or pics of these events in here, because the blog might have seen too much snow the last days to relish them :-)

Good night, folks. Have a good time!
Many of us "locals" have always thought that the "big one" for the northeast and midatlantic would be a multiday Nor'easter...or a series of storms. Sandy was a very bad storm, but unfortunately the potential for something much worse has always been there. In my life alone there have been many close calls.

Quoting 245. 999Ai2016:

And now, with the recent coastal events on the U.S. East Coast, we've seen that you don't need a tropical cyclone making landfall to push a record-setting storm surge far inland : prolonged and gusty inshore wind events, or "normal" winter storms are sometimes enough, especially when combined with the full moon's tides.
New study on Antarctic C02 issues; the picture accompanying the article is beautiful and scarry at the same time:


It’s no mystery why carbon dioxide (CO2) levels fluctuate with the seasons: As greenery grows in the spring and summer, it soaks up the planet-warming gas, and when trees shed their leaves in the autumn, some of that gas returns to the atmosphere. But scientists haven’t figured out why the differences between summer and winter concentrations of CO2 have been growing substantially at Arctic latitudes since the 1960s—in some regions, the fluctuations have increased as much as 25%. A new computer simulation fingers long-term warming in the Arctic, which has led to the proliferation of plants across large swaths of the landscape. The simulation was calibrated by using satellite observations, which have long showed increased greening across much of the Arctic since the early 1980s (including tundra sites such as those in eastern Russia, above). If the effects of climate change weren’t included in the model, the trends toward bigger seasonal variations in CO2 at Arctic latitudes disappeared, researchers report online today in Science. For now, the increases in CO2 soaked up by new vegetation—including trees now growing where shrubs used to dominate—more than compensate for the amounts of the gas released by thawing permafrost, the team says. But in the future, if soil nutrients are exhausted by the flush of new growth, CO2 generated by the decomposition of organic matter long trapped in the soil could end up adding to the overall concentrations of that planet-warming gas.

And one from today on ocean sensors; they need to park a few in/over the Greenland "cold pool" off the coast (or take a few research subs down in it) to figure out if the Gulf Stream is being impacted by that area in the North Atlantic:


New sensors promise better picture of world ocean health

TOKYO–Marine scientists are developing new sensors they plan to deploy in a global monitoring system to better observe changes occurring in the world’s oceans. 

“In some ways we know more about Mars than our own oceans yet they do govern everything from regional climate to economics,” said Karen Wiltshire of Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Sylt. Wiltshire, chair of the Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans (POGO) presented the new observational strategy at a press conference here today ahead of the annual meeting of the partnership, which brings together 40 oceanographic institutions. The goal is to have the new global monitoring system in place by 2030.

Since it was founded in 1999, POGO has coordinated the worldwide deployment of some 20,000 autonomous probes known as Argo floats that gather temperature, salinity, and current velocity data. Ten percent also have oxygen sensors. The probes go up and down a water column to a depth of 2 kilometers and relay data by satellite link when they surface. The data are publicly available within 24 hours. The probes last 2 years, and approximately 4000 are currently active.

The researchers said that although Argo has transformed ocean observation, there is a greater need for more and better data. “The global ocean observing system has become stalled; it is not progressing at the rate that is necessary,” said Ed Hill, executive director of the United Kingdom’s National Oceanography Centre in Southampton. He added that scientists need to monitor carbon storage and possible temperature increases in oceans at depths greater than 2 kilometers in addition to adding biogeochemical sensing capacity.

“For example, [measuring] chlorophyll a will give you information about how much biological activity is going on, and eventually more information about the concentration of carbon dioxide within the ocean and the atmosphere,” said Yoshihisa Shirayama, executive director of research at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology in Yokosuka.

To gather this information, researchers are developing sensors to measure seawater carbon content, acidity, the concentration of nutrients such as nitrates and phosphorous, and even gather genomic data.

A new generation of sensors could be adapted to a variety of platforms including coastal moorings, current drifters, undersea Internet cables, oilrigs, and ships. Optical sensors installed on ships, for instance, can determine ocean water color that reflects the activity of microalgae at the bottom of the food chain and, when examined alongside satellite color observations, can support extrapolations about what’s happening in a given area of ocean. “The more you measure with a small device over large distances, the more information you have to calibrate your satellite information,” Wiltshire said.

Some of the sensors are operational and are being gradually put into use. Others, such as acidity sensors, are only coming out of labs now. “The common thread is that the technologies to do this without having to collect big buckets of seawater are starting to come on stream,” Hill said. “The goal is not just realistic, it’s a must,” Wiltshire said. “It’s absolutely imperative for this planet.”

Quoting 241. washingtonian115:

Can't believe it'll be 20 years since Bertha and Fran did a one two punch here in the mid-atlantic.I'm still not sure why Bonnie wasn't retired in the spring of 97.


You have to retire Bonnie and Clyde at the same time...
253. vis0
Quoting 144. win1gamegiantsplease:

Of course Brooklyn was nice and cleared (though the people parked there, lol), New York has a bit of an advantage as far as resources/infrastructure are concerned, just a bit..



Neat the way you could see the snowbands get more intense right off the coast.

Notice the southern jet is really booting to take the flow of weather/Jonus N/NE but just near Washington, DC or a bit north, as Jonus gets near the coast its moisture almost right angled back towards NJ, weird (since 2010 this is the 9th Storm with tropical connections that right angles itself or its plume towards the Appalachians, 2 wiped out Mountain side towns in NYS, before 2010 this right angling near NJ for storms COMING FROM THE tropics or have tropical connections only happened 4 times in 120 yrs of NEast record keeping). 
Look at the LOWs retrograding since Jan 7-9th back to Canada's eastern/SE (see https://youtu.be/N8z5zKrb3RY) coast as El Nio weakens a bit, interesting.  Then watch as El Nio's (ENSO) influence gets another boost, it yanks Jonus off to the NE from Long Island, so hard it rips it a apart a bit.

Sure the ULL helped attract Jonas back to the NE but what made that ULL become stronger than even the models predicted 24 hrs before snow began to fall over NYc and what made the HIGHs that where to be 1030 -1034 HIGHS only 1025 HIGHs.  Those who know me know my crazy reply, plus aGW.

BTW the count van count VID is NOT of Jonus but just after January 7th 2016. & whose that screaming in the bkgrnd of a better picture of our oceans "say, chjeeeeesese ....its warm in here."

Notice the southern jet is really booting to take the flow of weather/Jonus N/NE but just near Washington, DC or a bit north, as Jonus gets near the coast its moisture almost right angled back towards NJ, weird (since 2010 this is the 9th Storm with tropical connections that right angles itself or its plume towards the Appalachians, 2 wiped out Mountain side towns in NYS, before 2010 this right angling near NJ for storms COMING FROM THE tropics or have tropical connections only happened 4 times in 120 yrs of NEast record keeping). 
Look at the LOWs retrograding since Jan 7-9th back to Canada's eastern/SE (see https://youtu.be/N8z5zKrb3RY) coast as El Nio weakens a bit, interesting.  Then watch as El Nio's (ENSO) influence gets another boost, it yanks Jonus off to the NE from Long Island, so hard it rips it a apart a bit.

Sure the ULL helped attract Jonas back to the NE but what made that ULL become stronger than even the models predicted 24 hrs before snow began to fall over NYc and what made the HIGHs that where to be 1030 -1034 HIGHS only 1025 HIGHs.  Those who know me know my crazy reply, plus aGW.

BTW the count van count VID is NOT of Jonus but just after January 7th 2016. & whose that screaming in the bkgrnd of a better picture of our oceans "say, chjeeeeesese ....its warm in here."
Latest CFSv2 now does NOT dip below 0.5C infact this models is now showing a increase in El-Nino come Fall. Interesting trends with this model the last 2 to 3 weeks. Something to keep an eye on as we move forward. Also notice the increase in SST's come April makes me wonder if that's this new Kelvin Wave building sub surface beneath the Central Pacific.



News report is claiming Regan National only received 1.5" of liquid precip from this past Blizzard. Must have been some dry air caught up in the column of the atmosphere. To have around 30" of snow but only 1.5" of precip seems quite low.

Pacific jet clocked at 263.5 mph over the North Pacific. This jet will help usher in the next parade of Nino storms into the West Coast by Friday.
Quoting 237. Grothar:



You keep posting those beautiful pictures and everyone from South Carolina to Maine are going to hate you :)


"Everyone" that isn't a snow lover. Seems like there's a lot of snow lovers in this forum.
But as much as I loved snow when I was a kid growing up, I would hate to deal with it today. It was 41 degrees this morning with a light frost on the golf course and that was too cold for me.

But temperatures have recovered nicely this afternoon, and it's now a beautiful sunny 71 degrees.
Quoting 245. 999Ai2016:

And now, with the recent coastal events on the U.S. East Coast, we've seen that you don't need a tropical cyclone making landfall to push a record-setting storm surge far inland : prolonged and gusty inshore wind events, or "normal" winter storms are sometimes enough, especially when combined with the full moon's tides.
By, By.
Quoting 255. StormTrackerScott:

News report is claiming Regan National only received 1.5" of liquid precip from this past Blizzard. Must have been some dry air caught up in the column of the atmosphere. To have around 30" of snow but only 1.5" of precip seems quite low.


Regan National seems to be in a league of its own. Being down on the Potomac River, Regan National averages a few degrees warmer than the surrounding areas. But the temperatures were well below freezing (mid 20s) for the majority of the "blizzard" at Regan National.

So I don't see a "heat island" effect being an issue with this snow storm.

I grew up (16 years) in the Washington D.C. area. We eventually moved down near Mount Vernon in northern Virginia, which is right by the Potomac River. Sometimes being down by the river produced heavier snowfall than areas to the west at higher elevation. But with warmer systems (temperatures around 30 degrees or warmer) the areas down by the river will receive less snowfall because of warmer temperatures.

From what I was seeing (live reports on TWC) the snow seemed pretty dry in D.C. during the storm.
260. vis0
Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:

Latest CFSv2 now does NOT dip below 0.5C infact this models is now showing a increase in El-Nino come Fall. Interesting trends with this model the last 2 to 3 weeks. Something to keep an eye on as we move forward. Also notice the increase in SST's come April makes me wonder if that's this new Kelvin Wave building sub surface beneath the Central Pacific.




My reply is at my zilly blog pg..6 cmmnt#290 (Taz your request is on that zilly blog cmmnt#288)
Quoting 261. tampabaymatt:




That a lot of rain Matt. It would be be something to see 6" for January as a whole across most of C FL heck some areas IE Fort Myers may near 12" for the month with these models pan out as the Euro & NAM look very wet for C & S FL.
Quoting 260. vis0:

My reply is at my zilly blog pg..6 cmmnt#290 (Taz your request is on that zilly blog cmmnt#288)



Why not reply on this blog?
Now with any luck this next wave on thursday will miss the mid-atlantic entirely!
Lots of energy here on the NAM coming across FL Wednesday & Thursday. Going to be interesting to see exactly how much rain falls in areas where training occurs as the models are showing PWAT's near 2" with 70 degree dewpoint in place.

Quoting 255. StormTrackerScott:

News report is claiming Regan National only received 1.5" of liquid precip from this past Blizzard. Must have been some dry air caught up in the column of the atmosphere. To have around 30" of snow but only 1.5" of precip seems quite low.


That seems about right. The southeastern third of the DC area got a dry slot Saturday morning through early afternoon which much cut down totals for that area (my home included). The snow was also dry and powdery. I had 16" on the level which corresponds to about 20" swept off a snow board. It was also not hard to shovel compared with some others we've gotten.
Quoting 245. 999Ai2016:

And now, with the recent coastal events on the U.S. East Coast, we've seen that you don't need a tropical cyclone making landfall to push a record-setting storm surge far inland : prolonged and gusty inshore wind events, or "normal" winter storms are sometimes enough, especially when combined with the full moon's tides.


This last event wasn't anywhere close to a "normal" winter storm. Winds gusted to 70-80 mph (actually hurricane wind warnings were up along the New Jersey coast) with constant winds in the 50-60 mph range for an extended period of time along the coast. This produced waves over 30 ft just offshore from Virginia up the coast. Combine that with the above normal moon tides, and you've got the setup for severe coastal flooding.

But with sea levels rising along with the possibility of stronger and more frequent storms, your point is well understood.
Quoting 247. LowerCal:

More often the other way around here in the San Fernando Valley. :^\
That 5 minutes of rain on Saturday was great! El Niño? Ha!
Quoting 268. MtotheJ:

That 5 minutes of rain on Saturday was great! El Niño? Ha!


I feel your pain!
After a colossal missed forecast the hype machine is back at it again.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNFOLDING FOR WED-THU WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE...

- CORRECTED JANUARY RAINFALL INFO BELOW -

FOR MOST OF CENTRAL FL THIS LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED STRONG/SVR CONVECTION WOULD BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF ABOUT A TPA-TTS LINE. NUDGED POPS UP 30N-50S FOR TUE
NIGHT OWING TO THE EARLIER ARRIVER OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME.
WENT WITH 80/80 ALL AREAS WED-WED NIGHT AND 60-70 FOR THU. TWO-DAY
WPC QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AVERAGING ABOUT 2.0"
TO 2.5" OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN CWA (ABOUT 1.7 TO 1/8" THERE).
ASSUMING THE QPF FORECAST COMES REASONABLY CLOSE TO FRUITION...THIS
EVENT WOULD PUSH AREAS THAT AREN`T ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
JANUARY RAINFALL INTO THAT CATEGORY...AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MLB
(CURRENTLY 3RD) AND VRB (CURRENTLY 7TH) INTO THEIR RESPECTIVE TOP
2 AND 3 WETTEST JANUARYS.
Quoting 270. luvtogolf:

After a colossal missed forecast the hype machine is back at it again.
????
Quoting 269. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I feel your pain!


El-Nino showing up with full force here in FL this month. Numerous heavy rain events along with a few episodes of severe weather. I suspect February & March might be even wetter across FL. Some areas after this event Wed/Thurs may rank up in the top 2 to 3 wettest January's on record.
Quoting 272. washingtonian115:

????


I have some clients up in your area and they said they are still snowed in.
We should really think about the methane in Cali, adding to the "Mix".

Maybe it'll be like a Ether starting fluid maybe,huh?

I sure hope static lectricity' nor Lightening strike lite's it off.

Would it be blue, cobalt, or mauve colored maybe?

: P




How much damage is the Porter Ranch leak doing to the climate?


Stephen Conley has flown pollution-detecting airplanes over some of the largest oil and gas fields in the nation. But never before has the UC Davis scientist encountered as much methane in the air as in recent months over suburban Los Angeles.

Over and over, Conley has flown his single-engine plane through the invisible plume billowing from an underground natural gas storage facility and into Porter Ranch to provide California air quality officials estimates of the planet-warming emissions from the leak.

Regulators order new steps to contain gas leak near Porter Ranch
Regulators order new steps to contain gas leak near Porter Ranch
On the first flight, in November, methane levels above the community jumped to 50 parts per million, so high that Conley double-checked his instruments in disbelief.

"This is probably 20 times bigger than anything else we've measured," Conley said.

In three months, one failed well at Southern California Gas Co.'s Aliso Canyon storage field has spewed more greenhouse gases than any other facility in California. At its height, the leak more than doubled the methane emissions of the entire Los Angeles Basin and surpassed what is released by all industrial activity in the state.

Experts say the release of so much methane, a fast-acting greenhouse gas many times more powerful than carbon dioxide, means that the biggest environmental consequence of the leak will be its effect in boosting global warming. Long after the leak stops and the foul odors vanish, the pulse of methane will remain in the atmosphere and its damage to the climate will go on.

Pilot has measured leak 9 times
State regulators and scientists studying the leak warn that the longer the gas escapes into the air, the more it will work against California's progress fighting climate change, including the target announced by Gov. Jerry Brown last year to reduce emissions of methane and other short-lived climate pollutants by 40% or more by the year 2030.

"It's really moving us in the wrong direction," said Jorn Herner, chief of research planning, administration and emissions mitigation at the state Air Resources Board.

Once the leak is stopped, air quality officials plan to complete a detailed estimate of its methane emissions using computer models and data from a network of gas analyzers on towers and buildings throughout the region. It will take months to complete an accurate measurement.

Measurements from Porter Ranch leak
Until then, Conley's measurements, though considered rough estimates, are the best indication of the climate effects from the ongoing leak. They are taken about once a week and paid for by the gas company.

If there is any good news, it is that they show the leak rate has been declining since its peak on Nov. 28, when the well released 58,000 kilograms of methane per hour. By Thursday the rate had dropped by two-thirds to 18,400 kilograms per hour.

The utility attributed the decline to its increased withdrawals of gas from the underground reservoir, "which is helping reduce the pressure that is pushing the gas up the well and out of the leak," gas company spokeswoman Kristine Lloyd said in an email.

As a result, she said, the reservoir has gone from being 90% full before the leak to at most 37% full on Jan. 10.

The utility does not have an estimate of the amount of gas released and says it cannot complete one until after the leak has stopped.

Porter Ranch gas leak
Porter Ranch gas leak
Crews are drilling a relief well to seal off the damaged one, with work expected to be completed by late February. Earlier this month the gas company abandoned a plan to capture and burn the leaking methane after regulators raised concerns about safety and explosion risk.

The utility has pledged to make up for its harm to the climate.

Brown has ordered state officials to draft a plan for the gas company to offset the emissions by funding projects in California to curb fast-acting climate pollutants such as methane.

"Those are significant but reasonable constraints," said Gary Gero, senior advisor to Climate Action Reserve, a leading certifier of carbon offsets. He said the emissions from the leak are so great that the gas company would have difficulty finding enough certified offsets to cover them.

The utility would not otherwise be required to pay for its pollution because California's climate change regulations exempt methane leaks — even enormous ones — as "fugitive emissions" that are not subject to the state's cap-and-trade program.

So far, estimates show the leak has put out the equivalent of 2.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide — more greenhouse gas than 440,000 cars emit in a year. Because the surge of pollution is in the form of methane, it will have a more immediate heat-trapping effect on the atmosphere.



Natural gas consists mostly of methane. Health officials say mercaptan and other odorants added to the gas are responsible for the symptoms being reported by Porter Ranch residents, including headache and nausea. The gas also contains compounds such as benzene that can increase cancer risk through long-term exposure.

State regulators and scientists monitoring methane from the leak throughout the Los Angeles region emphasized the gas is not at concentrations that pose a health or safety risk to residents.

But its fingerprint is evident far and wide, said Riley Duren, a researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. A network of gas-detecting instruments across the basin, including one sensor atop Mt. Wilson, has detected noticeable increases in methane levels as far away as Orange County and San Clemente Island, he said.

Duren thinks estimates gathered by airplane represent a "reasonable lower bound" and that total methane emissions from the leak could be higher.

The methane is leaking from one of 115 wells at the company's sprawling facility in the Santa Susana Mountains, which stores natural gas for use across Southern California. With a capacity of 86 billion cubic feet, it's one of the largest of more than 400 natural gas storage fields around the nation.

This is a massive leak, but it's not altogether unexpected.
- Jessika Trancik, assistant professor of energy studies at Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The incident is likely to affect regulations under development by state and federal environmental agencies to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations.

"This is a massive leak, but it's not altogether unexpected," said Jessika Trancik, assistant professor of energy studies at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who evaluates the climate effects of natural gas-related emissions.

That's because of a growing recognition that the nation's natural gas infrastructure is vulnerable to leaks and other failures, particularly as it ages, Trancik said.

"It's inevitable that parts of the supply infrastructure will fail, but the impacts of these kinds of events can be contained if we have more comprehensive monitoring and better predictions of which sites are at risk," she said.

Join the conversation on Facebook >>

Studies in recent years have found emissions in the industry are significantly underestimated by official inventories. Experts blame widespread leakage, with some estimating that between 2% and 4% of the natural gas in the nation escapes into the air at some point in the production, transmission and distribution system.

Companies have spent millions in recent years improving monitoring and tightening up equipment to reduce the risks to the climate and the public, said Rob Jackson, environmental scientist at Stanford University.

"One accident like this wipes out those benefits over the past year and more," said Jackson, who is studying the Aliso Canyon leak and thinks it is probably one of the largest in the last 50 years.

State officials might have more quickly understood the severity of the leak if they had measured its emissions earlier. The first aerial measurements came more than two weeks after the leak was reported by the gas company on Oct. 23. The Air Resources Board said it wasn't notified of the leak until Nov. 5.

UC Davis project scientist Stephen Conley measured methane emissions from the Aliso Canyon natural gas leak on Jan. 8, 2016.
Reports submitted to the state agency show that pilot Conley made his first attempt to measure emissions from the leak the same day, working for the advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund. But Conley was sent home.

"During the two-hour flight to the site at the northern edge of the Los Angeles metro area, EDF was dissuaded from the measurement by personnel from SoCal Gas, citing extreme danger," according to a report by the pilot. Just before reaching the facility, the environmental group ordered him to turn around, Conley said.

Conley returned two days later, under contract with the state, to complete the first successful emissions measurements.

"That's when we discovered this absurd level," Conley said.

The Air Resources Board released its first estimate of the greenhouse gas emissions nearly two weeks later, after what officials called an extensive review of the data.

The agency's Nov. 20 report found that the stricken well was boosting California's methane emissions by about 25%, underscoring "the urgency of stopping the gas leak."

tony.barboza@latimes.com

Twitter: @tonybarboza

MORE ON PORTER RANCH

Businesses in Porter Ranch struggling as customers relocate

Gas company forced to resume offering rental houses to Porter Ranch families

Porter Ranch: Regulators approve comprehensive abatement order over massive gas leak

Copyright © 2016, Los Angeles Times
A version of this article appeared in print on January 24, 2016, in the News section of the Los Angeles Times with the headline "Gas leak's climate toll will linger - Long after the Aliso Canyon well is plugged, methane's damage will continue." — Today's paper |
Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:

Latest CFSv2 now does NOT dip below 0.5C infact this models is now showing a increase in El-Nino come Fall. Interesting trends with this model the last 2 to 3 weeks. Something to keep an eye on as we move forward. Also notice the increase in SST's come April makes me wonder if that's this new Kelvin Wave building sub surface beneath the Central Pacific.




Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Latest model-based ENSO fcst from NOAA has 50% chance La Nina, 40% chance neutral & 10% chance #ElNino by Aug-Oct
Quoting 256. BayFog:


Pacific jet clocked at 263.5 mph over the North Pacific. This jet will help usher in the next parade of Nino storms into the West Coast by Friday.


That jet needs to get it's act together as it still has a split out there by Hawaii.......now what I would like to see is that thick fat part of the jet ( the part west of Hawaii, back to Asia slamming into Central California ( a Yosemite latitude would be fine) and not splitting until it gets to Kansas!
Quoting 276. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Latest model-based ENSO fcst from NOAA has 50% chance La Nina, 40% chance neutral & 10% chance #ElNino by Aug-Oct




this will be a higher ch of seeing a La Nina then staying in EL Nino
Quoting 270. luvtogolf:

After a colossal missed forecast the hype machine is back at it again.


Looks like you had a colossal miss on current events, as for the forecast, not so much. It did amazingly well.
Quoting 265. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of energy here on the NAM coming across FL Wednesday & Thursday. Going to be interesting to see exactly how much rain falls in areas where training occurs as the models are showing PWAT's near 2" with 70 degree dewpoint in place.




This event could dump the kind of rains that occurred many of times during this past summer on the west coast of FL, but more widespread due to synoptic progression and scale.
Quoting 225. weavingwalker:

I work in downtown Portland. Two days a week (today), my office is on "fill", in what used to be an oxbow lake of Columbia River. A decent quake, and we're swimming. The other days are in downtown proper. We had a safety talk last month. When asked about earthquake procedures: for a minor quake - duck into a doorway, for a major quake - grab something and enjoy the ride down. I'm on 9 of 10 floors - we have a chance of survival. But, having streetcar or Max on three sides of the building - we'll have to deal with downed high-voltage wires. We don't have to worry about a tsunami, as we're 90 miles from coast (with a mountain range in between). But a large part of the City will definitely sink.

One of the worst things in Portland that will likely fail in a major quake is a big petroleum fuel tank farm built on fill near the Willamette River in North Portland. When we get the big one there will be fire and fuel flowing into the river. It's an ugly situation.
Seems about right... 1.5" of rain is equal to at least a couple of feet of dry snow, if my ratios are correct.
Quoting 219. georgevandenberghe:



Many people feel this way about the outcome of the Patriots contest.


The Patriots just weren't ready for the Bronco's defense. The Cardinals just simply weren't ready. That game was almost painful to watch.

The Panther's have the energy. The Bronco's have the experience. It should be an interesting game.
GEM 12Z Precip for 10 days



GFS 12Z 10 Day Precip



If this verifies and depending on snow levels, will help very nicely with our drought. I see some 8-16" totals and this area is south of Shasta Lake which is still filling nicely as I type. Central/Southern Sierra's need more snow and like I said if it verifies would do the trick. They even throw me a bone with 1-3" of rain for Soo Cal!

Im not a snow level expert by any means. Up in Nor Cal 850mb trmps will be 0 to -5C, which is 4880 feet elevation, so snow at 5-6 thousand feet? Would like for Central and Southern Sierra's to get more snow.



Quoting 275. Patrap:

We should really think about the methane in Cali, adding to the "Mix".

Maybe it'll be like a Ether starting fluid maybe,huh?

I sure hope static lectricity' nor Lightening strike lite's it off.

Would it be blue, cobalt, or mauve colored maybe?

: P




How much damage is the Porter Ranch leak doing to the climate?

....(snip)

The agency's Nov. 20 report found that the stricken well was boosting California's methane emissions by about 25%, underscoring "the urgency of stopping the gas leak."

tony.barboza@latimes.com

Twitter: @tonybarboza

MORE ON PORTER RANCH

Businesses in Porter Ranch struggling as customers relocate

Gas company forced to resume offering rental houses to Porter Ranch families

Porter Ranch: Regulators approve comprehensive abatement order over massive gas leak

Copyright © 2016, Los Angeles Times
A version of this article appeared in print on January 24, 2016, in the News section of the Los Angeles Times with the headline "Gas leak's climate toll will linger - Long after the Aliso Canyon well is plugged, methane's damage will continue." - Today's paper |

...and that's just one old well (drilled 1953) in this state (or country for that matter) that has maintained compliance with all applicable regulations right on up to date. Natural gas as a "transition" energy source - not really ideal. Underscores the need to transition to renewable ASAP.

Frequently Asked Questions_Aliso_012315.pdf from California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (CalOES)
What we need to do is LOSE that ridge that has been hanging out SW of California for the rest of the winter! That would help open up the whole state to the El Nino Storm Train!

From RealClimate:

Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System

By Stefan Rahmstorf

Blizzard Jonas on the US east coast has just shattered snowfall records. Both weather forecasters and climate experts have linked the high snowfall amounts to the exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures off the east coast. In this post I will examine a related question: why are sea surface temperatures so high there, as shown in the snapshot from Climate Reanalyzer below?



I will argue that this warmth (as well as the cold blob in the subpolar Atlantic) is partly due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), sometimes referred to as the Gulf Stream System, in response to global warming. There is two points to this argument:

(1) The warm sea surface temperatures are not just some short-term anomaly but are part of a long-term observed warming trend, in which ocean temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than global average temperatures.

(2) Climate models show a “cold blob” in the subpolar Atlantic as well as enhanced warming off the US east coast as a characteristic response pattern to a slowdown of the AMOC.

Read more >>

#275 good one Pat!
289. vis0
Quoting 263. tampabaymatt:



Why not reply on this blog?

[bold humour] ARE YOU SERIOUS [bold humour]
Any comment that has" vis0" and "TAZ" replying directly to each other has to be done under the cone of silence (search "cone of silence" TVshow "GET SMART",  Since my blog is so quiet it doubles as a cone of silence.

This message will self destruct in
I think next Autumn and Christmas is going to be a complete flip to this past Halloween and Christmas. What with a negative QBO working with a developing atypical La Nina should give the east an early start to Autumn and a cold snowy front-loaded Winter(Nov-Early Jan) followed by an appreciable thaw as we approach The 2017 Inauguration.

I'll take some of this, looks like 1.5-1.75." Might have to rustle up a couple extra sandbags......lol
Quoting 273. StormTrackerScott:



El-Nino showing up with full force here in FL this month. Numerous heavy rain events along with a few episodes of severe weather. I suspect February & March might be even wetter across FL. Some areas after this event Wed/Thurs may rank up in the top 2 to 3 wettest January's on record.


Hopefully things will get cranking up in Soo-Cal soon....Nor Cal is getting it pretty good.
Quoting 291. PedleyCA:


I take some of this, looks like 1.5-1.75." Might have to rustle up a couple extra sandbags......lol


We can hope at least!
Quoting 293. HurricaneHunterJoe:



We can hope at least!


Nice weather today, I have 68.2F, and a bunch of wind, 8-26mph.
Since everyone is talking global warming today ;they scientist in 2014 were saying in New York times article that snowstorms in the east and Europe were a thing of the past.Just as Al Gore and prince Charles said the earth would burn up in 2014 also just a few years before this many on here were saying Texas and Florida would be mostly rain free,before that in 20005 the gulf coast would be destroyed by super hurricanes and before that the ozone hole was going to kill us all.Since viewing this site since 2004 the things that are going to kill us every year is endless when one does not pan out on to the next always get a good laugh out of the stories posted on here.Nothing new under the sun you guys and gals try to enjoy your day.
Hi of 61 today....light west breeze........very nice day!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 25 Jan 2:55 pm PST
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 25 Jan 2:40 pm PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
25 Jan 2:40 pm PST 60 23 24 W 4G08 OK
25 Jan 2:30 pm PST 60 24 25 W 7G13 OK
25 Jan 2:20 pm PST 60 24 25 WNW 6G11 OK
25 Jan 2:10 pm PST 60 24 25 WNW 6G12 OK
25 Jan 2:00 pm PST 61 25 25 WNW 4G10 OK


Shortly back for a last post about a really interesting European weather pattern this night. Above a shot of current airmasses. To the left the large swath of clouds, this is former blizzard Jonas, aiming at the British Isles to create bad weather for them. Adjacent to the east, this small but pronounced band of red from the north to the south: the crazy polar jet stream, digging south and immediately returning north (see pic below), advecting very warm air from the south which also dominates the cloudless area further to the east.



Now look, what temperatures this weather pattern creates for the Alps where a lot of folks are staying for skiing (like currently my sister with her husband). I've looked around my favorite site with the Alp cams and had a hard time to find any cam with connected weather data showing some freezing temps. In fact, at 11pm deep in winter, most of the cams, even very high above sea level, show decent warm temps, f.e. this cam below - with significant "Foehn clouds" - with 7C=44.6F past 11 pm in deepest winter. The cam shows one of the reservoirs of the Kaprun area at 2000m = 6562ft, dooh. Must be a hell of a melting going on there this night!



But now I'm really out. Bell of the cathedral rings midnight.
Quoting 297. barbamz:



Shortly back for a last post about a really interesting European weather pattern this night. Above a shot of current airmasses. To the left the large swath of clouds, this is former blizzard Jonas, aiming at the British Isles to create bad weather for them. Adjacent to the east, this small but pronounced band of red from the north to the south: the crazy polar jet stream, digging south and immediately returning north (see pic below), advecting very warm air from the south which also dominates the cloudless area further to the east.



Now look, what temperatures this weather pattern creates for the Alps where a lot of folks are staying for skiing (like currently my sister with her husband). I've looked around my favorite site with the Alp cams and had a hard time to find any cam with connected weather data showing some freezing temps. In fact, at 11pm deep in winter, most of the cams, even very high above sea level, show decent warm temps, f.e. this cam below - with significant "Foehn clouds" - with 7C=44.6F past 11 pm in deepest winter. The cam shows one of the reservoirs of the Kaprun area at 2000m = 6562ft, dooh. Must be a hell of a melting going on there this night!



But now I'm really out. Bell of the cathedral rings midnight.


Jonas already in the uk? Zippedy Doo Dahh Zippedly Hey!




Please don't hate me, if I could I would sure post bad weather pics !! ;) Unfortunately, I don't think we will see any bad weather before april..
Quoting 295. help4u:

Since viewing this site since 2004


Since 2004 you say,eh?

Well datz gonna be kinda hard to use as a "God-smacked" truth since This Blog and all the blogs did not begin until April 14, 2005.

Thanx for playing , the parting gift is a either the yo-yo or the Klackers.

The 360-degree Rainbow
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM CDT on April 14, 2005


Quoting 241. washingtonian115:

Can't believe it'll be 20 years since Bertha and Fran did a one two punch here in the mid-atlantic.I'm still not sure why Bonnie wasn't retired in the spring of 97.


Bertha or Bonnie? Bonnie was August 1998. Might have to make a 20th anny blog for Fran, that's what hooked my interest as a little guy.

Quoting 218. georgevandenberghe:



I got 16" on the ground just 1.5 miles SE of UMD college park campus. I suspect about 20" had I used
a snow board.


Hey, 16" is still more snowfall than I've ever seen. Got close to a foot once in 2000 I believe.
From Miami NWS Disco...

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN, BETTER
CONFIDENCE HAS EMERGED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMY WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN US WED/THURS WITH AN ENHANCED
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS TX/WESTERN GULF. COUPLED WITH THE
150KT PLUS JET STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER GULF
LOW DEVELOPING TUES NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARDS INTO THE PENINSULA
WED NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL,OR
NEAR THE MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AT 1.75-2". SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S, AND POSSIBLY
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT MAY TRIGGER STRONGER CONVECTION. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT, THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A RISK OF AT LEAST URBAN TYPE MINOR FLOODING
WITH WPC PLACING THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

Link
Quoting 295. help4u:

Since everyone is talking global warming today ;they scientist in 2014 were saying in New York times article that snowstorms in the east and Europe were a thing of the past.Just as Al Gore and prince Charles said the earth would burn up in 2014 also just a few years before this many on here were saying Texas and Florida would be mostly rain free,before that in 20005 the gulf coast would be destroyed by super hurricanes and before that the ozone hole was going to kill us all.Since viewing this site since 2004 the things that are going to kill us every year is endless when one does not pan out on to the next always get a good laugh out of the stories posted on here.Nothing new under the sun you guys and gals try to enjoy your day.



All ya have to do is wait, take no corrective measures and then pick your own poison. Most of us older types are probably safe from the coming demise of human and other inhabitants of this lovely white, blue and brown circular creation but the kids and grandkids and their children??? Not so much.
Quoting 302. GeoffreyWPB:

From Miami NWS Disco...

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN, BETTER
CONFIDENCE HAS EMERGED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMY WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN US WED/THURS WITH AN ENHANCED
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS TX/WESTERN GULF. COUPLED WITH THE
150KT PLUS JET STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER GULF
LOW DEVELOPING TUES NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARDS INTO THE PENINSULA
WED NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL,OR
NEAR THE MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AT 1.75-2". SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S, AND POSSIBLY
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT MAY TRIGGER STRONGER CONVECTION. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT, THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A RISK OF AT LEAST URBAN TYPE MINOR FLOODING
WITH WPC PLACING THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

Link Hope this clears out before Friday. We've had our fair share of nasty weekends the last few weeks ....
Quoting 299. CaribBoy:





Please don't hate me, if I could I would sure post bad weather pics !! ;) Unfortunately, I don't think we will see any bad weather before april..
No, keep posting them, the shots are fabulous.
Quoting 281. riverat544:


One of the worst things in Portland that will likely fail in a major quake is a big petroleum fuel tank farm built on fill near the Willamette River in North Portland. When we get the big one there will be fire and fuel flowing into the river. It's an ugly situation.
That will probably be the least of their problems.
Quoting 290. weatherbro:

I think next Autumn and Christmas is going to be a complete flip to this past Halloween and Christmas. What with a negative QBO working with a developing atypical La Nina should give the east an early start to Autumn and a cold snowy front-loaded Winter(Nov-Early Jan) followed by an appreciable thaw as we approach The 2017 Inauguration.
An a typical Nina or Super Nina, should end the rain and snow on the west coast, I wouldn't mine seeing a Nino for this coming fall, and next winter, but that will not happen with the coming Nina.
Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:

Latest CFSv2 now does NOT dip below 0.5C infact this models is now showing a increase in El-Nino come Fall. Interesting trends with this model the last 2 to 3 weeks. Something to keep an eye on as we move forward. Also notice the increase in SST's come April makes me wonder if that's this new Kelvin Wave building sub surface beneath the Central Pacific.





Although CFSv2 is a dynamical model it does not model subsurface ocean temps or dynamics like Kelvin Waves. This is where practically all the modeling of ENSO falls way short. The eventual SST heating caused by Kelvin waves are only inferred by things like previous WWBs. This is one of the key reasons why we shouldn't put too much credence on longer range ENSO forecasts especially as the Spring Predictability Barrier draws nearer.
Quoting 276. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Latest model-based ENSO fcst from NOAA has 50% chance La Nina, 40% chance neutral & 10% chance #ElNino by Aug-Oct
Curious how the Hurricane Season could really behave this year.
Quoting 308. VibrantPlanet:


Although CFSv2 is a dynamical model it does not model subsurface ocean temps or dynamics like Kelvin Waves. This is where practically all the modeling of ENSO falls way short. The eventual SST heating caused by Kelvin waves are only inferred by things like previous WWBs. This is one of the key reasons why we shouldn't put too much credence on longer range ENSO forecasts especially given the Spring Predictability Barrier.
Good post.
254. CFS didn't show such a monstrous El Nino developing this time a year ago either, FWIW.

Just going off history, and the rising pool of cool sub-surface anomalies, I really do think 2016 will be a La Nina year. Could very well be a very active Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 295. help4u:

Since everyone is talking global warming today ;they scientist in 2014 were saying in New York times article that snowstorms in the east and Europe were a thing of the past.Just as Al Gore and prince Charles said the earth would burn up in 2014 also just a few years before this many on here were saying Texas and Florida would be mostly rain free,before that in 20005 the gulf coast would be destroyed by super hurricanes and before that the ozone hole was going to kill us all.Since viewing this site since 2004 the things that are going to kill us every year is endless when one does not pan out on to the next always get a good laugh out of the stories posted on here.Nothing new under the sun you guys and gals try to enjoy your day.



Post a link to the New York Times article.
Quoting 311. CybrTeddy:

254. CFS didn't show such a monstrous El Nino developing this time a year ago either, FWIW.

Just going off history, and the rising pool of cool sub-surface anomalies, I really do think 2016 will be a La Nina year. Could very well be a very active Atlantic hurricane season.
Once the sheer begins to lessen, the Caribbean might be a hot spot again.
Quoting 312. DCSwithunderscores:



Post a link to the New York Times article.
It's amazing how often a corpulent politician gets confused with scientists by some people. Maybe it's something genetic.
Oops:
Link / Ocean warming underestimated, study finds. Phys.org.

"To date, research on the effects of climate change has underestimated the contribution of seawater expansion to sea level rise due to warming of the oceans. A team of researchers at the University of Bonn has now investigated, using satellite data, that this effect was almost twice as large over the past twelve years than previously assumed. That may result in, for example, significantly increased risks of storm surges. The scientists are presenting their findings in the renowned scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
(...)Until now, it was assumed that sea levels rose an average of 0.7 to 1.0 millimeters a year due to this "thermometer effect." According to the new calculations, however, the ocean's expansion contributed with about 1.4 millimeters a year. In other words, almost twice as much as previously assumed. "This height difference corresponds to roughly twice the volume from the melting ice sheets in Greenland," says Dr. Rietbroek."
Fixed link in #285.

Frequently Asked Questions_Aliso_012315.pdf from California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (CalOES)

Thanks for bringing that to my attention, PedleyCA.
Quoting 311. CybrTeddy:

254. CFS didn't show such a monstrous El Nino developing this time a year ago either, FWIW.

Just going off history, and the rising pool of cool sub-surface anomalies, I really do think 2016 will be a La Nina year. Could very well be a very active Atlantic hurricane season.
Who knows until we get past the spring predictability barrier? It's been shown over and over again that the CFS forecasts for the state of ENSO conditions for the coming summer and fall made now are little better than chance. This is another case of giving credence to a model because it happens to show what you'd like it to show.
Quoting 229. Jedkins01:



I'm not so sure why that model is producing that output, Ruskin has an nice graphical display for why it will possibly be the opposite, or at least the first half of the month.



It is only temporary. The pattern has relaxed, but winter will return with a vengeance, and likely last into March.
Quoting 315. 999Ai2016:

Oops, sea level rise has probably been underestimated in the last 12 years.
Link / Ocean warming underestimated, study finds. Phys.org.

"To date, research on the effects of climate change has underestimated the contribution of seawater expansion to sea level rise due to warming of the oceans. A team of researchers at the University of Bonn has now investigated, using satellite data, that this effect was almost twice as large over the past twelve years than previously assumed. That may result in, for example, significantly increased risks of storm surges. The scientists are presenting their findings in the renowned scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
(...)
Until now, it was assumed that sea levels rose an average of 0.7 to 1.0 millimeters a year due to this "thermometer effect." According to the new calculations, however, the ocean's expansion contributed with about 1.4 millimeters a year. In other words, almost twice as much as previously assumed. "This height difference corresponds to roughly twice the volume from the melting ice sheets in Greenland," says Dr. Rietbroek."


Yo, Fred?
Yeah Bob?
Bob:We double checked your math and ob's.
Fred:Yeah, and....?
Bob:We doubled the values for the last 12 years
Fred. Fred, ?..






Thats gonna leave a mark on somebody. But I've been yakking for 10 years that the OB'S were outpacing the Models, a LOT.
Quoting 315. 999Ai2016:

Oops, sea level rise has probably been underestimated in the last 12 years.
Link / Ocean warming underestimated, study finds. Phys.org.

"To date, research on the effects of climate change has underestimated the contribution of seawater expansion to sea level rise due to warming of the oceans. A team of researchers at the University of Bonn has now investigated, using satellite data, that this effect was almost twice as large over the past twelve years than previously assumed. That may result in, for example, significantly increased risks of storm surges. The scientists are presenting their findings in the renowned scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
(...)
Until now, it was assumed that sea levels rose an average of 0.7 to 1.0 millimeters a year due to this "thermometer effect." According to the new calculations, however, the ocean's expansion contributed with about 1.4 millimeters a year. In other words, almost twice as much as previously assumed. "This height difference corresponds to roughly twice the volume from the melting ice sheets in Greenland," says Dr. Rietbroek."
"No country will raise its levees because of a couple of millimeters," says Dr. Rietbroek. "But these small amounts add up to several centimeters within decades. Under such conditions, the likelihood of a destructive storm surge could increase dramatically."

Anchorage is melting again... so much for winter in the Last Frontier.
Quoting 321. Dakster:

Anchorage is melting again... so much for winter in the Last Frontier.


Quoting 318. hydrus:

It is only temporary. The pattern has relaxed, but winter will return with a vengeance, and likely last into March.
Had a great day up here, and hope you did also. Deep blue sky, just a little wind, and a high of 68. This front that's coming looks pretty unimpressive so far. The barometer was falling as the high moves east but now it's leveled off. Until we get the low form on the front as it moves south there's not much that's going to happen. Even with the low, it looks like just rain with nothing severe, although we could get an inch and half of rain between Tuesday and Thursday. As long as it's that spread out we shouldn't have any flood issues. The ground is still saturated, so any heavier rain might cause trouble.

After the front moves though we get one more shot of cool, but not very cold, air before we get an early spring. Looks like we get about a week of dry weather with temperatures near 70 for the weekend. I've got work I need to do on the car so I'm looking forward to the mild weather. I have no idea what February will do. With El Nino still going strong, we should get back to cool and wet again, but predictability has been even worse than normal with our friend, Senor Nino, still visiting.
Quoting 323. Tampa969mlb:

I'm with u bro, I don't get the global warming propaganda....most all the people preaching gw are still driving cars, flying in planes, and using electricity..yet we have such a short period of records to compare and figure trends. Even if it's really happining technology will be able to solve it in the next 30 years...that's if AI doesn't get us first.
So I take it science wasn't one of your best subjects in school.
Quoting 318. hydrus:

It is only temporary. The pattern has relaxed, but winter will return with a vengeance, and likely last into March.

Curious as to why you think so? From what i understand the AO trends more positive during strong Ninos because of the increase in temp and pressure differences between the polar region and the more southerly latitudes.
Quoting 318. hydrus:

It is only temporary. The pattern has relaxed, but winter will return with a vengeance, and likely last into March.


Yep, notice the arctic oscillation is expected to notably positive, but then drop again.
Quoting 327. sar2401:

So I take it science wasn't one of your best subjects in school.


Reminds me of this youtube...

https://youtu.be/ewBG_jmMI40

Link
Quoting 277. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That jet needs to get it's act together as it still has a split out there by Hawaii.......now what I would like to see is that thick fat part of the jet ( the part west of Hawaii, back to Asia slamming into Central California ( a Yosemite latitude would be fine) and not splitting until it gets to Kansas!

The progs have that jet shoving the split right to the coast. That's five days out, but given its strength, it shouldn't have any problem bringing systems in before they weaken. The thing to keep watching is for any sign of a subtropical jet pushing out from the Nino region south of Hawaii. If that happens and it phases with the midlatitude jet, we have joy, mixed with concerns for flooding and mudslides of course.
Quoting 328. VibrantPlanet:


Curious as to why you think so? From what i understand the AO trends more positive during strong Ninos because of the increase in temp and pressure differences between the polar region and the more southerly latitudes.


If the AO trended more positive, then FL wouldn't have a history with an increase in heavy rain and severe weather during El Nino.

This page will give some good info on both the AO and NAO, note that there are position trends as well, east and west. These patterns function independent of El Nino.


Link
Quoting 326. Dakster:



It was a sad story for sure. I read it earlier today.
Sad indeed, but Wolsey seems like he had some kind of death wish. This was his third expedition, each one being more dangerous in terms of lack of logistical and manpower support if something went wrong. It was never very likely a 55 year old man was going to successfully make that 950 mile trek in the harshest landscape in the world completely unassisted, pulling his meager supplies behind him. I guess people like him have a dream, and they'll keep trying until it kills them.
Quoting 332. Jedkins01:



If the AO trended more positive, then FL wouldn't have a history with an increase in heavy rain and severe weather during El Nino.

This page will give some good info on both the AO and NAO, note that there are position trends as well, east and west. These patterns function independent of El Nino.
You forgot the link...
Quoting 333. sar2401:

Sad indeed, but Wolsey seems like he had some kind of death wish. This was his third expedition, each one being more dangerous in terms of lack of logistical and manpower support if something went wrong. It was never very likely a 55 year old man was going to successfully make that 950 mile trek in the harshest landscape in the world completely unassisted, pulling his meager supplies behind him. I guess people like him have a dream, and they'll keep trying until it kills them.


Yes and no. I see people doing dangerous stuff all the time in AK . Sometimes they pay for it with their life. They know it is possible and they take the chance. I guess he thought he was strong enough to do it. And really he died of an infection in his abdomen. Not sure if it was because he was not i good enough shape or health. Granted, I don't think many humans on earth are in good enough shape or health to do that trek.
Quoting 334. sar2401:

You forgot the link...


Yeah I did lol, it's fixed now :)
Quoting 305. Climate175:

No, keep posting them, the shots are fabulous.


Thank you Climate, I will ;) Posting pictures is probably a better idea than complaining about the lack of rain lol
Quoting 332. Jedkins01:



If the AO trended more positive, then FL wouldn't have a history with an increase in heavy rain and severe weather during El Nino.

This page will give some good info on both the AO and NAO, note that there are position trends as well, east and west. These patterns function independent of El Nino.


Link

OK thanks for the link. Found a different link just out today affirming the temporary relaxation that Hydrus was referring to. According to them, yes winter will return after it. Good read for sure!

Link (Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts)
339. vis0

Quoting 267. Sfloridacat5:



This last event wasn't anywhere close to a "normal" winter storm. Winds gusted to 70-80 mph (actually hurricane wind warnings were up along the New Jersey coast) with constant winds in the 50-60 mph range for an extended period of time along the coast. This produced waves over 30 ft just offshore from Virginia up the coast. Combine that with the above normal moon tides, and you've got the setup for severe coastal flooding.

But with sea levels rising along with the possibility of stronger and more frequent storms, your point is well understood.

Do not take all i state as fact some of my words come from theories i thought out 40+ yrs ago and are not proven**(rest of disclaimer is near end of the comment).

As to Quote 267, i agree.
 
Also i think Jonus was not normal not just that it was so overwhelming in many categories of weather (large in cloud mass, output of precipitation, coverage of precipitation) but in that it could have been much worse and that is what is so amazing in how much more just a degree (rise) over such a vast area as the atmosphere can accomplish.

How can i say "it could have been worse?" (see several comments that present a HD of Jonas as within comment#143 ON THIS BLOGBYTE)

Look at 2016 Jonus carefully, though it was looking like the classic comma storm just before some deep LOWs winds up, Jonus never truly "wound up", it was more like a "node Low" on a rich Jet Stream-front, where the Jet stream is so super charged (due to ENSO-e/El Nio/aGW/m*-*) that any LOW be it ULL to LLL that comes close to that super charged Jet stream can tap into that Jet Stream and not even fully form its core circulation.  Yet those LOWs translate the Jet Streams energy down to where animals live with more ease as all the "heavy lifting" is done my ENSO-e/El Nio/aGW/m*-*

Another example was the "firehose" flow near/quasi assisted by Joaquin position or the "waterbomber"  near/quasi assisted by 2015 TS Erika position which that was looking nothing like a classic TS yet dropped copious amounts of water over the Lesser Antilles, specially Dominica. 
i think in part due to ENSO-e/El Nio/aGW/m*-*, and will get worse if not sooner in strength at least in coverage, mainly due to aGW being the only one of the 4 (ENSO-e/El Nio/aGW/m*-*) that is rising constantly.



My disclaimer
**Though i state some weird things within my scientific explanations i do understand anything that exists on the physical dimension has to be proven through physics.  Its just that i believe mankind has to learn that ~46% (45% is what i call "clear matter") of what is in this Universe never interacts with the physical dimension,  ~23% interacts towards physics via temporary descending bridges through quantum while ~23% leave physics via temporary ascending tunnels (both 23%s are forms of what i hear some call "dark matter" the rest is physics.

That means if mankind continues to learn more of what is out and in there, mankind will have a better opportunity to figure out how things like weather climate are affected. So i include my extreme thoughts not as fact but as a seed to trigger deeper thinking.

look! tacos, my Sis is visiting and brought home some tacos, there goes the rest of my thought.

Observe weather and learn, the fee for this ultimate higher education course? Its that you pay attention.
Quoting 323. Tampa969mlb:

I'm with u bro, I don't get the global warming propaganda....most all the people preaching gw are still driving cars, flying in planes, and using electricity..yet we have such a short period of records to compare and figure trends. Even if it's really happining technology will be able to solve it in the next 30 years...that's if AI doesn't get us first.
Where is a facepalm gif when u need 1 ...
Quoting 327. sar2401:

So I take it science wasn't one of your best subjects in school.
Singing "dunno much about the science book" ....
342. ariot
Quoting 323. Tampa969mlb:

I'm with u bro, I don't get the global warming propaganda....most all the people preaching gw are still driving cars, flying in planes, and using electricity..yet we have such a short period of records to compare and figure trends. Even if it's really happining technology will be able to solve it in the next 30 years...that's if AI doesn't get us first.


Assuming your definition of propaganda is in line with the dictionary, where may I find and read AGW propaganda?

When I visit government websites about science, I'm presented with appropriately written articles that take a conservative view of a serious long-term problem and take great care to provide citations, methodology and links where I can read more about the science behind the summaries.

OTOH denier websites are full of hyperbolic bullshit about government overreach with little to no concern for reality, truth or reason.
Quoting 300. Patrap:

Quoting 295. help4u:

Since viewing this site since 2004


Since 2004 you say,eh?

Well datz gonna be kinda hard to use as a "God-smacked" truth since This Blog and all the blogs did not begin until April 14, 2005.

Thanx for playing , the parting gift is a either the yo-yo or the Klackers.

The 360-degree Rainbow
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM CDT on April 14, 2005





Going by his post history, math has never been one of his strong suits. Or science. Or facts. Or logic. Or...well you get the idea.
344. vis0

Quoting 286. HurricaneHunterJoe:

What we need to do is LOSE that ridge that has been hanging out SW of California for the rest of the winter! That would help open up the whole state to the El Nino Storm Train!


Its the Western RRRr that has thinned out "Longitudinaly" and has pieces of it "Latitudinaly" from SW to SE of California. The SE piece is over Western Texas.This thinning & breakup of that RRRr has been caused he constant pounding from the brat El Nio stretched out over the atmospheres "floor" screaming ||"Yo quiero jugar con mas agua...mira! mas tacos con mas aGW salsa...myummyummyum"||◄es|en►||i want to play with more water...look! more tacos with added aGW salsa...myummyummyum||

Lets hope the train has many local stops and not a few express stops, share the liquid wealth.
Quoting 327. sar2401:

So I take it science wasn't one of your best subjects in school.


By that post, I'd say his best subject in school was "skipping classes".
A nice winter week in Soo Cal....nice vacation temps! A storm is forecast for Sun-Monday 31Jan-Feb1.......we will see. Disneyland anyone.......come visit the Hotel California!

348. beell
Quoting 300. Patrap:

Quoting 295. help4u:

Since viewing this site since 2004


Since 2004 you say,eh?

Well datz gonna be kinda hard to use as a "God-smacked" truth since This Blog and all the blogs did not begin until April 14, 2005.

Thanx for playing , the parting gift is a either the yo-yo or the Klackers.

The 360-degree Rainbow
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM CDT on April 14, 2005





Check out sar's join date. The site (weatherunderground) and its members existed before the blogs.
jus' sayin'

Quoting 283. Xyrus2000:



The Patriots just weren't ready for the Bronco's defense. The Cardinals just simply weren't ready. That game was almost painful to watch.

The Panther's have the energy. The Bronco's have the experience. It should be an interesting game.


And the Patriots have the tee times.
350. vis0
Reply to Quote #315(please read)
Quoting 319. Patrap:



Yo, Fred?
Yeah Bob?
Bob:We double checked your math and ob's.
Fred:Yeah, and....?
Bob:We doubled the values for the last 12 years
Fred. Fred, ?..






Thats gonna leave a mark on somebody. But I've been yakking for 10 years that the OB'S were outpacing the Models, a LOT.

If these new findings are true even if not to 1.4, oh lets say 1.2 instead of 0.7, to me that is a big deal as this is over a planets biosphere(s) therefore in the end this tiny bit will continue to build in being a lot of change in how everything that uses warmer water can more easily thrive thus change how life exists on Earth, mostly for the worse.

Analogy:: baking a cake. You read add 1/2 a tea spoon of real vanilla then you find out later as you spit out the cake, your cooking companion also added 1/2 a teaspoon too.
It looks like just a bit more but "kapow kick" caused by the tiny bit more of something that is potent was devastating to the end product.

BTW1 One cannot remix the ingredients that led to the planet we have now.  Why not?, Oh most watches don't have a chronograph dial that reaches  4,500,002,016AD nor do i have a large enough spoon nor the ingredients list.
BTW2 Has Google created a google doodle celebrating earth b'day (sit down ...barely...French people i didn't say that just sounds the same).
Your metaphor works better if you're talking about baking soda, and you live above 4000 feet. :)

Then you bitch and grumble, and scrub all the burnt cake batter off the oven floor.

Not that I forgot to adjust leavening on the birthday cake my 9 year old housemate was baking for me last week. No, I've been baking for decades, how on earth could I possibly forget?


Quoting 350. vis0:

Reply to Quote #315(please read)
If these new findings are true even if not to 1.4, oh lets say 1.2 instead of 0.7, to me that is a big deal as this is over a planets biosphere(s) therefore in the end this tiny bit will continue to build in being a lot of change in how everything that uses warmer water can more easily thrive thus change how life exists on Earth, mostly for the worse.

Analogy:: baking a cake. You read add 1/2 a tea spoon of real vanilla then you find out later as you spit out the cake, your cooking companion also added 1/2 a teaspoon too.
It looks like just a bit more but "kapow kick" caused by the tiny bit more of something that is potent was devastating to the end product.

BTW1 One cannot remix the ingredients that led to the planet we have now.  Why not?, Oh most watches don't have a chronograph dial that reaches  4,500,002,016AD nor do i have a large enough spoon nor the ingredients list.
BTW2 Has Google created a google doodle celebrating earth b'day (sit down ...barely...French people i didn't say that just sounds the same).

beell - And gro existed before the dinosaurs, what's your point?
Quoting 351. nonblanche:

Your metaphor works better if you're talking about baking soda, and you live above 4000 feet. :)

Then you bitch and grumble, and scrub all the burnt cake batter off the oven floor.

Not that I forgot to adjust leavening on the birthday cake my 9 year old housemate was baking for me last week. No, I've been baking for decades, how on earth could I possibly forget?





18'th century saying.. It's never the green new hands that fall off the rigging, it's the old salts grown careless
Quoting 307. NativeSun:

An a typical Nina or Super Nina, should end the rain and snow on the west coast, I wouldn't mine seeing a Nino for this coming fall, and next winter, but that will not happen with the coming Nina.


If that is the case, we need to hope we can really get deluged in California. 40 Days-40Nights may refill all the aquifers and storage lakes. But then the mudslides........Mudslides? Full Aquifers?.......Mudslides? Full Aquifers?...........Mudslides? Full Aquifers?..................?
Quoting 335. Dakster:



Yes and no. I see people doing dangerous stuff all the time in AK . Sometimes they pay for it with their life. They know it is possible and they take the chance. I guess he thought he was strong enough to do it. And really he died of an infection in his abdomen. Not sure if it was because he was not i good enough shape or health. Granted, I don't think many humans on earth are in good enough shape or health to do that trek.
I'm not sure any human on earth was in shape to take that trek. 900 miles over 75 days with altitude gains and losses probably totaling seventy or eighty thousand feet. Bacterial peritonitis was just the end state of his death, not the cause. Lack of calories, lack of water, pernicious hypothermia, no sleep, all leading to a complete breakdown of the body's immune system is what probably caused the bacterial peritonitis. I don't have a problem with people taking chances. That's up to them What I do have a problem with is forcing people who are sent out to rescue him to also take those chances. If you want to do that kind of...I don't know, extreme doesn't really begin to describe it...expedition and you sign a no-rescue agreement, have at it. Otherwise, you're forcing other people to join your expedition because it's their job, not their preference.
That's what I'm waiting for ..



I took this picture in september 2013...

Quoting 311. CybrTeddy:

254. CFS didn't show such a monstrous El Nino developing this time a year ago either, FWIW.

Just going off history, and the rising pool of cool sub-surface anomalies, I really do think 2016 will be a La Nina year. Could very well be a very active Atlantic hurricane season.


Probably so going off history.....but am thinking things may start changing a lot quicker......the next 20-50 years, we might get a hint. Maybe super Strong El Ninos every 3-5 years instead of 15-20 or? Gonna be interesting for sure.
Quoting 355. sar2401:

I'm not sure any human on earth was in shape to take that trek. 900 miles over 75 days with altitude gains and losses probably totaling seventy or eighty thousand feet. Bacterial peritonitis was just the end state of his death, not the cause. Lack of calories, lack of water, pernicious hypothermia, no sleep, all leading to a complete breakdown of the body's immune system is what probably caused the bacterial peritonitis. I don't have a problem with people taking chances. That's up to them What I do have a problem with is forcing people who are sent out to rescue him to also take those chances. If you want to do that kind of...I don't know, extreme doesn't really begin to describe it...expedition and you sign a no-rescue agreement, have at it. Otherwise, you're forcing other people to join your expedition because it's their job, not their preference.


70 to 80 THOUSAND feet of elevation? or 7 to 8 thousand? Or do you mean if he walked up 1,000 and down 1,000 feet that counts as 2,000 feet - and over and over again?

Yes, people that do stupid stuff put the rescuers in danger, but the rescuers signed up for it too. If they didn't, they would do what they do on Mt. Everest and in Alaska... Leave the body forever...



i this got done watching the town hall on cnn so what you guys think
Quoting 327. sar2401:

So I take it science wasn't one of your best subjects in school.


Not to mention, I don't really understand how all of that stuff he said - GW proponents driving cars and whatnot - is relevant to the validity of the theory as a whole in any way.

See: red herring. It's a logical fallacy.
Quoting 348. beell:



Check out sar's join date. The site (weatherunderground) and its members existed before the blogs.
jus' sayin'


I first found this site in maybe 1997 because it was the only one to collect current observations in one place. At that time, it wasn't a public site. You had to get a password to get in (by FTP, I might add) and prove you were part of a university or emergency management, along with other qualifications I don't remember now. I was able to tag along on our county's OES password. It was all text, all horrible courier font, all dial-up, and all fabulous. There was never a site with so much weather information in one place. Even watches and warnings got posted as soon as they came out. It hard to explain how great that was about 20 years ago. I think the first maps showed up about 1999. It's was amazing. Click on the current surface map link, go get a cup of coffee, and make some toast, preferably topped with apricot preserves. By the time you got back, the map would just about finish loading. Graphics! Dang!

I don't remember when the blog kind of thing started, maybe about 2000. There was a chat room before that. It was almost exactly the same kind of chat room still used here until the recent "upgrades" ditched it. It was great as long as you weren't the only person logged in at one in the morning 'cause then you had no one to talk with. I think this whole blog started with a Compuserve forum. It ran until Compuserve died about 2003. I don't remember when that forum migrated to what's now wunderground.com. Maybe around 2003 also. I just read posts and really didn't feel the need to post after it left Compuserve. I don't know why I signed up again. I think it had to do with the aftermath of Ivan so I could talk to people living in the area. We sent one of the first FEMA USAR teams down there, and I was trying to get an idea of how many canines were needed for building searches. 2004 was such a terrible hurricane year that we were really being stretched thin for coverage. I couldn't imagine 2005 being worse, so my record for incorrect hunches goes way back.

I really wish Dr. Masters would write a history of Weather Underground, especially as it gets submerged even deeper in the corporate morass. At least to me, it would be fascinating. He was a real pioneer in using that new thing called the internet for weather. It was a typical college type website in those days and, trust me, some of the things that got posted back then would singe the ears off some of our more delicate members now. :-)
Quoting 356. CaribBoy:

That's what I'm waiting for ..



I took this picture in september 2013...




$6345.25 In the rain fund........Desperate enough to try cloud seeding?
Quoting 356. CaribBoy:

That's what I'm waiting for ..



I took this picture in september 2013...




But first, we need to see clouds!
Quoting 352. Dakster:

beell - And gro existed before the dinosaurs, what's your point?


Be careful what you say about dinosaurs..........half the population thinks people rode them around before they went extinct 65 million years ago! As Lewis Black says " Half the population thinks the television show The Flintstones is a documentary".
Quoting 364. HurricaneHunterJoe:



But first, we need to see clouds!


Yes, for the cloud seeding we need good clouds able to drop big rains :) But at this time we only have small cumulus and stratus lol. Will have to wait a little more before we can get our pretty "cloud garden".
I believe Madrid, Spain has the right idea for city planning. This is great, not only is removing cars and adding more plants to downtown areas a good idea for sustainability, but it also has many other good advantages. No more loud vehicles and traffic jams. Also, getting rid of roads allows down town areas to take advantage social events and other things. If more downtown/urban centers did this, I might change my mind about not liking major cities.

Link
Quoting 365. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Be careful what you say about dinosaurs..........half the population thinks people rode them around before they went extinct 65 million years ago! As Lewis Black says " Half the population thinks the television show The Flintstones is a documentary".


Riding them wasn't so bad. Trying to climb in the saddles was rough
Quoting 359. Dakster:



70 to 80 THOUSAND feet of elevation? or 7 to 8 thousand? Or do you mean if he walked up 1,000 and down 1,000 feet that counts as 2,000 feet - and over and over again?

Yes, people that do stupid stuff put the rescuers in danger, but the rescuers signed up for it too. If they didn't, they would do what they do on Mt. Everest and in Alaska... Leave the body forever...




I'd have to plot it out with a topo, but, yes, total elevation gain and loss. It was probably an average of at least 500 feet a day. Multiply that by 70 days and you get 35,000 feet. The route to the South Pole isn't flat. It's one mountain range after another, and a lot of other just hills in between. The worst physical backpack I ever did was across the Grand Canyon in three days. It's an elevation loss of 5800 feet and then 14 miles to Phantom Ranch and the Colorado River. Most of the elevation loss is in the first five mile. Then it's across the River and another 10 miles up 4500 feet. most of that more or less straight up in the last five miles. I was 30 years old, and an experienced backpacker. It was 117 degrees at Phantom Ranch, and that hike almost killed me. At least I had Bright Angel Creek and the River to lay in and stave off heatstroke. I also did part of the hike at night. Imagine if you're trying to stay warm and hydrated doing a trek like that for 70 days, dragging everything you need behind you on a sled.

Yes, I know that rescuers sign up to do rescues. Both you and I have done that. We did enough of that for people who were just in the wrong place at the wrong time. It still doesn't make it any easier if you or one of your partners dies trying to go after someone who actually planned to put himself in harm's way.
Quoting 368. Grothar:



Riding them wasn't so bad. Trying to climb in the saddles was rough
Cleaning out the stable wasn't too great either.
Quoting 367. Jedkins01:

I believe Madrid, Spain has the right idea for city planning. This is great, not only is removing cars and adding more plants to downtown areas a good idea for sustainability, but it also has many other good advantages. No more loud vehicles and traffic jams. Also, getting rid of roads allows down town areas to take advantage social events and other things. If more downtown/urban centers did this, I might change my mind about not liking major cities.

Link
It's great as long as public transport like trams will still go down those street and pass the stores, dropping off shoppers as they go. It's been proven time and time again that if people have to park even a couple of blocks away to get to shopping, they won't do it. If people can't physically pass by stores with something other shoe leather power, they don't see the stores and won't shop there. If it's planned right, it has merit. If the goal is to just remove cars and add green space, they will kill off downtown retail. People don't go downtown to see parks or stuff growing on buildings. They go downtown because there are things like shopping and theaters to go to.


Good night guys.

You can go HERE to see more pictures.. just in case you missed some.
Quoting 330. Dakster:



Reminds me of this youtube...

https://youtu.be/ewBG_jmMI40

Link

Thanks for that link. It led me to the other BroScience videos. Lots of bad language but absolutely hilarious. :-)
Quoting 371. sar2401:

It's great as long as public transport like trams will still go down those street and pass the stores, dropping off shoppers as they go. It's been proven time and time again that if people have to park even a couple of blocks away to get to shopping, they won't do it. If people can't physically pass by stores with something other shoe leather power, they don't see the stores and won't shop there. If it's planned right, it has merit. If the goal is to just remove cars and add green space, they will kill off downtown retail. People don't go downtown to see parks or stuff growing on buildings. They go downtown because there are things like shopping and theaters to go to.


Yeah I agree, but I'm sure the plan is to still have means of access by public transportation vehicles, as well as emergency vehicles.
This front that will be coming through tomorrow has to be the longest and skinniest one I've seen. It's supposed to bulk up tomorrow, but it's going to take some pretty decent bulking to do much at this rate.

Quoting 373. sar2401:

Thanks for that link. It led me to the other BroScience videos. Lots of bad language but absolutely hilarious. :-)



Yeah that video was great, the BroScience ones are awesome too, especially as someone who is pretty committed to fitness/health stuff. Just don't watch them with your mom around :)
Quoting 368. Grothar:


Riding them wasn't so bad. Trying to climb in the saddles was rough

I imagine T-Rex was the worst.


From Wikipedia, an exhibit in the Creation Museum showing human and a mini T-Rex coexisting.
Quoting 377. riverat544:


I imagine T-Rex was the worst.


From Wikipedia, an exhibit in the Creation Museum showing human and T-Rex coexisting.


Lol as Christian, that kinda stuff just gives me a one heck of a face palm. However, if that's supposed to be Grothar way back when, it would be just fine :)
Quoting 374. Jedkins01:



Yeah I agree, but I'm sure the plan is to still have means of access by public transportation vehicles, as well as emergency vehicles.
I hope so. Look up Pomona CA, a town I used to live in, and see the results of changing the downtown into a pedestrian only "mall". They succeeded in turning an ailing downtown into a completely dead downtown. It went from this:



To this:



EDIT: They have now spent I don't know how much to open it back up to cars, and the downtown is now recovering from yet another failed urban renewal experiment.
Quoting 376. Jedkins01:




Yeah that video was great, the BroScience ones are awesome too, especially as someone who is pretty committed to fitness/health stuff. Just don't watch them with your mom around :)
Luckily, no more Mom to yell at me now, and the headphones help stop the air from turning blue. Pretty good satire of the whole southern California bodybuilder lifestyle. Did you see the one on the pros and cons of steroids yet? If not, don't watch it while you're eating or drinking anything. :-)
Quoting 377. riverat544:


I imagine T-Rex was the worst.


From Wikipedia, an exhibit in the Creation Museum showing human and T-Rex coexisting.


Riding the T-Rex is what helped Grothar decide that there must be something better to ride than that. That is when he and Henry Fordstone came up with this. Grothar donated one of his suits for the upholstery.

Quoting 380. sar2401:

Luckily, no more Mom to yell at me now, and the headphones help stop the air from turning blue. Pretty good satire of the whole southern California bodybuilder lifestyle. Did you see the one on the pros and cons of steroids yet? If not, don't watch it while you're eating or drinking anything. :-)


Lol that one is amazing, the crossfit one is too.
FWI, I remember visiting this website in 1995 but all I get is crap that it wasn't around then.
BTW, It was a lot different back then!

History[edit]
Weather Underground (WU) is based in San Francisco, California and was founded in 1995 as an offshoot of the University of Michigan's Internet weather database. The name is a reference to the 1960s militant radical student group the Weather Underground, which also originated at the University of Michigan.

Jeff Masters, a doctoral candidate in meteorology at the University of Michigan working under the direction of Professor Perry Samson, wrote a menu-based Telnet interface in 1991 that displayed real-time weather information around the world. In 1993, they recruited Alan Steremberg and initiated a project to bring Internet weather into K-12 classrooms. WU's president Alan Steremberg wrote "Blue Skies" for the project, a graphical Mac gopher client, which won several awards. When the Mosaic Web browser appeared, this provided a natural transition from "Blue Skies" to the Web.


The original logo, used from 1997 through 2014
In 1995 Weather Underground, Inc. became a commercial entity separate from the university.[2] It has grown to provide weather for print sources, in addition to its online presence. In 2005, Weather Underground became the weather provider for the Associated Press; WU also provides weather reports for some newspapers (including the San Francisco Chronicle) and the Google search engine. Alan Steremberg, Weather Underground's president, also worked on the early development of Google's search engine with Larry Page and Sergey Brin.

In October 2008, Jeff Masters reported that the site was #2 in Internet Weather for 2008.[3]


Quoting 362. sar2401:

I first found this site in maybe 1997 because it was the only one to collect current observations in one place. At that time, it wasn't a public site. You had to get a password to get in (by FTP, I might add) and prove you were part of a university or emergency management, along with other qualifications I don't remember now. I was able to tag along on our county's OES password. It was all text, all horrible courier font, all dial-up, and all fabulous. There was never a site with so much weather information in one place. Even watches and warnings got posted as soon as they came out. It hard to explain how great that was about 20 years ago. I think the first maps showed up about 1999. It's was amazing. Click on the current surface map link, go get a cup of coffee, and make some toast, preferably topped with apricot preserves. By the time you got back, the map would just about finish loading. Graphics! Dang!

I don't remember when the blog kind of thing started, maybe about 2000. There was a chat room before that. It was almost exactly the same kind of chat room still used here until the recent "upgrades" ditched it. It was great as long as you weren't the only person logged in at one in the morning 'cause then you had no one to talk with. I think this whole blog started with a Compuserve forum. It ran until Compuserve died about 2003. I don't remember when that forum migrated to what's now wunderground.com. Maybe around 2003 also. I just read posts and really didn't feel the need to post after it left Compuserve. I don't know why I signed up again. I think it had to do with the aftermath of Ivan so I could talk to people living in the area. We sent one of the first FEMA USAR teams down there, and I was trying to get an idea of how many canines were needed for building searches. 2004 was such a terrible hurricane year that we were really being stretched thin for coverage. I couldn't imagine 2005 being worse, so my record for incorrect hunches goes way back.

I really wish Dr. Masters would write a history of Weather Underground, especially as it gets submerged even deeper in the corporate morass. At least to me, it would be fascinating. He was a real pioneer in using that new thing called the internet for weather. It was a typical college type website in those days and, trust me, some of the things that got posted back then would singe the ears off some of our more delicate members now. :-)
385. flsky
Beautiful pics. Kind of reminds me of SoCal in non-drought years. Much prettier sea water however.

Quoting 372. CaribBoy:



Good night guys.

You can go HERE to see more pictures.. just in case you missed some.
Quoting 369. sar2401:

I'd have to plot it out with a topo, but, yes, total elevation gain and loss. It was probably an average of at least 500 feet a day. Multiply that by 70 days and you get 35,000 feet. The route to the South Pole isn't flat. It's one mountain range after another, and a lot of other just hills in between. The worst physical backpack I ever did was across the Grand Canyon in three days. It's an elevation loss of 5800 feet and then 14 miles to Phantom Ranch and the Colorado River. Most of the elevation loss is in the first five mile. Then it's across the River and another 10 miles up 4500 feet. most of that more or less straight up in the last five miles. I was 30 years old, and an experienced backpacker. It was 117 degrees at Phantom Ranch, and that hike almost killed me. At least I had Bright Angel Creek and the River to lay in and stave off heatstroke. I also did part of the hike at night. Imagine if you're trying to stay warm and hydrated doing a trek like that for 70 days, dragging everything you need behind you on a sled.

Yes, I know that rescuers sign up to do rescues. Both you and I have done that. We did enough of that for people who were just in the wrong place at the wrong time. It still doesn't make it any easier if you or one of your partners dies trying to go after someone who actually planned to put himself in harm's way.


Link
"Antarctica is the highest continent on Earth: average elevation is 8,200ft (2500m). The elevation at the South Pole is 9,300ft (2835m). The highest point on the icecap is in Australian Antarctic Territory at 13,451ft (4100m), at 82° 20'S, 56° 30'E. Mount Vinson is the highest mountain in Antarctica at 16,050ft (4892m)."

I believe he was recovered at 9000' MSL.
Good morning abroad with some waves to wake you up :-)

El Niño waves batter Chile’s coastline – video
The Guardian/Reuters, Tuesday 26 January 2016 10.37 GMT
Huge waves up to about 5 metres (16 feet) high slam Chile’s coastal resort town of Viña del Mar over the weekend, as high surf caused by El Niño storms batter the country’s Pacific coast. Television footage aired by Chile’s TVN network shows powerful waves toppling and dragging a civil defence SUV, with passersby rushing to help the passengers get out




From the night of 23/24th January:
388. MahFL
Quoting 322. BaltimoreBrian:

Henry Worsley, British explorer attempting solo crossing of Antarctica, dies after being evacuated 30 miles from goal

His final recording (audio clip)


Sounds to me like the guy wanted to die. He was ex Special Forces and knew what he was doing.

Current pressure (saved pic). Source.

Heavy rain and gales as storm hits the UK
BBC, 1 hour ago
Heavy rain and strong winds have hit parts of the UK as the "remnants" of the storm that brought severe blizzards to the US arrives in the country. ...
Quoting 343. Xyrus2000:



Going by his post history, math has never been one of his strong suits. Or science. Or facts. Or logic. Or...well you get the idea.


/Clackers?!! I still have a pair from the mid 70's and I actually clacked them recently just to see if they were still viable. They didn't explode but I didn't push them to their limit either; just a few mild flicks of the wrist. Great fun back in the day!
Nick Wiltgen r.i.p.
Folks in C & S FL better be prepared for what could be a serious rainfall event because if you have noticed the 0Z runs have slowed the upper trough coming across the Gulf leading to a heavy rain event that starts late tonight and last thru Thursday night now. Interestingly it was the NAM who first showed this last night then the other models followed suit.

I wouldn't be surprised if some get over 5" of rain over the next few days as PWAT's could rise over 2" across C & S FL.


396. MahFL
Quoting 395. StormTrackerScott:

Folks in C & S FL better be prepared for what could be a serious rainfall event because if you have noticed the 0Z runs have slowed the upper trough coming across the Gulf leading to a heavy rain event that starts late tonight and last thru Thursday night now. Interestingly it was the NAM who first showed this last night then the other models followed suit.

I wouldn't be surprised if some get over 5" of rain over the next few days as PWAT's could rise over 2" across C & S FL.


Wanna buy a boat ?
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES.

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT
CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND BEYOND. IN GENERAL...THOUGH...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...IN PHASE
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM. AS THIS OCCURS...CONSIDERABLE FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS
LIKELY...WITHIN A BELT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE IS NOT YET MUCH CLEARER CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE. BUT THIS MAY NOT BY
A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

THERE REMAINS BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT A PLUME OF
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...EMANATING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN IMPULSE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES.
AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHILE
PERHAPS APPROACHING 70F ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COASTAL AREAS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF/ECENS AND NAM/NCEP SREF...REMAINS
SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR/SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
FORCED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...BENEATH AN AREA OF
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH MAY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA /POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE ORLANDO METROPOLITAN AREA AND
MELBOURNE VICINITY/ BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE MORE RECENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DO NOT APPEAR AS STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES. THE EXTENT OF THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY HINGE
ON THE TIMING OF INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.


SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF ANY ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT CLEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES...LARGELY DUE TO THE CONTINUING
MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
Quoting 396. MahFL:



Wanna buy a boat ?


There is going to be some excessive rainfall amount but the question is were will this band of heavy rain and thunderstorms set up overnight. Models seem to be leaning toward the Tampa to Cape area by daybreak. If that does indeed pan out then these rainfall amounts could be very high.
can use a inch or two e cen florida
Local mets seem to think the worst of the weather could set up just south of Tampa Bay. That's in line with the comments coming from Norman. Mets are saying wide spread 2-3" are likely.
Didn't take the time to comment on previous blog but for me in College Park, the snow dump Friday and Saturday slightly underperformed. I got dry slotted and 2/3 of the metro area didn't but I suspect the total liquid water falling over the Appalachians and Coastal plain was perhaps a factor of .75 of what was forecast. Points west of me have awesome snowpacks but there have been higher water contents in the snowpack in past storms, e.g 1996 , 2003 and 2010. Here in College Park this storm was also remarkably easy and fast to shovel out because it wasn't dense. I got about 1.25-1.5" of liquid equivalent. I may be biased because I got dry slotted and it was much worse to my north and west but if the (some runs) forecast 3" of liquid water at points and 2.5" average inside the beltway had verified, we'd be looking at much worse conditions

I'll take my good fortune where I can get it and yes I'm feeling spared.
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



There is going to be some excessive rainfall amount but the question is were will this band of heavy rain and thunderstorms set up overnight. Models seem to be leaning toward the Tampa to Cape area by daybreak. If that does indeed pan out then these rainfall amounts could be very high.


What are your thoughts on the pattern change that looks to set in after this event, with ridging come back in place in the SE. Maybe a temporary pause in the El Nino train of lows coming across FL?
Quoting 345. Xyrus2000:



By that post, I'd say his best subject in school was "skipping classes".


You're insulting the many people who skipped classes, and still got fine educations. (I was a disgusting goody-twoshoes in school.. the smart judicious skippers did as well or better than I did )
Quoting 402. tampabaymatt:



What are your thoughts on the pattern change that looks to set in after this event, with ridging come back in place in the SE. Maybe a temporary pause in the El Nino train of lows coming across FL?


Indeed it looks like we get a break for several days before rain returns mid next week but nothing like this week rainfall wise. However as JB eluded to this morning it appears come after the 5th of February the patterns flips back to a colder and potentially stormy one across the SE US. I know what you are seeing on the GFS but the Euro Ensembles show a different story compared to the GFS. Thinking any break we get to dry out will be brief.
post from Largo on my blog.

(snip) nws Miami...........IN MORE DETAIL, THE
ANOMALOUS IWVT INDICATES AN "ATMOSPHERIC RIVER" OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
Gonzo does the Clothes Hanger (El Nino Recon)


Quoting 400. Bucsboltsfan:

Local mets seem to think the worst of the weather could set up just south of Tampa Bay. That's in line with the comments coming from Norman. Mets are saying wide spread 2-3" are likely.


NAM & Euro models have the Tampa Bay area covered this time tomorrow with heavy rains with embedded thunderstorms.
Quoting 403. georgevandenberghe:



You're insulting the many people who skipped classes, and still got fine educations. (I was a disgusting goody-twoshoes in school.. the smart judicious skippers did as well or better than I did )



There were those who skipped classes because they were bored and were acing the courses, then there were those who skipped because they were "too cool for school".

The former went on to become scientists and engineers. The latter you can find on Youtube saying, "Hold my beer!" just before almost succumbing to Darwin. From the OP, I thought the context was pretty clear to which I was referring. :)
Quoting 408. Xyrus2000:



There were those who skipped classes because they were bored and were acing the courses, then there were those who skipped because they were "too cool for school".

The former went on to become scientists and engineers. The latter you can find on Youtube saying, "Hold my beer!" just before almost succumbing to Darwin. From the OP, I thought the context was pretty clear to which I was referring. :)


I should have put a smiley on mine too. Some of the latter do get their act together in college (perhaps second time 'round) and go on to do fine in life.
Good Morning.  Cool and wet across the Northern Gulf coast/Florida as it should be during an El Nino winter.................
Beautiful day for the Carolina coast. After this cold front moves by here tomorrow we should see dryer and warmer temperatures for several days.

It is so cool to live in a time with so many great problem solvers.

No Shovel Needed: Special Concrete Could Melt Mounds of Snow

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2016/01 /16016-conductive-concrete-could-melt-mounds-of-sn ow/
Quoting 368. Grothar:



Riding them wasn't so bad. Trying to climb in the saddles was rough


curious to know what the saddle was made of?
Geo, we are glad you're here.

Quoting 403. georgevandenberghe:



You're insulting the many people who skipped classes, and still got fine educations. (I was a disgusting goody-twoshoes in school.. the smart judicious skippers did as well or better than I did )

Quoting 404. StormTrackerScott:



Indeed it looks like we get a break for several days before rain returns mid next week but nothing like this week rainfall wise. However as JB eluded to this morning it appears come after the 5th of February the patterns flips back to a colder and potentially stormy one across the SE US. I know what you are seeing on the GFS but the Euro Ensembles show a different story compared to the GFS. Thinking any break we get to dry out will be brief.


06Z GFS flips to cold Feb 4-5 also. A very warm next week for much of the eastern half of the U.S but melting snowpack will hold temps down here. Starting to worry a little about warm rain just prior to the flip causing some flooding but that's a long way out and I'm expecting a lot of slow steady melting prior. Our soils are also not frozen here.
I was looking a SST,s this morning..The 2016 Hurricane Season could be very active.
Now..


The past 6 months..

Quoting 412. olivojoe:

It is so cool to live in a time with so many great problem solvers.

No Shovel Needed: Special Concrete Could Melt Mounds of Snow

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2016/01 /16016-conductive-concrete-could-melt-mounds-of-sn ow/


No Shovel Needed: Special Concrete Could Melt Mounds of Snow.
alot of folks speculated that the cool water temp. off greenland was due to melting. seriously doubt those characters were right as the area of cool waters seems to be getting larger
Quoting 420. islander101010:

alot of folks speculated that the cool water temp. off greenland was due to melting. seriously doubt those characters were right as the area of cool waters seems to be getting larger
I have been reading your posts for a long time. You type these short comments about something, but never provide info regarding the subject matter or topic. If you seriously doubt those characters were right, why dont you fricken explain why.?...Seriously dude, put a couple more sentences down for the folks who are reading your posts. At least then its worth the time to read them. Reading a comment that I have to go look up to see what your talking about is tiresome.
Mostly clear, 83°F, Wind E 16mph

Quoting 369. sar2401:

I'd have to plot it out with a topo, but, yes, total elevation gain and loss. It was probably an average of at least 500 feet a day. Multiply that by 70 days and you get 35,000 feet. The route to the South Pole isn't flat. It's one mountain range after another, and a lot of other just hills in between. The worst physical backpack I ever did was across the Grand Canyon in three days. It's an elevation loss of 5800 feet and then 14 miles to Phantom Ranch and the Colorado River. Most of the elevation loss is in the first five mile. Then it's across the River and another 10 miles up 4500 feet. most of that more or less straight up in the last five miles. I was 30 years old, and an experienced backpacker. It was 117 degrees at Phantom Ranch, and that hike almost killed me. At least I had Bright Angel Creek and the River to lay in and stave off heatstroke. I also did part of the hike at night. Imagine if you're trying to stay warm and hydrated doing a trek like that for 70 days, dragging everything you need behind you on a sled.

Yes, I know that rescuers sign up to do rescues. Both you and I have done that. We did enough of that for people who were just in the wrong place at the wrong time. It still doesn't make it any easier if you or one of your partners dies trying to go after someone who actually planned to put himself in harm's way.


Losing a partner or even a partner getting hurt sucks... and yeah no easier no matter the circumstance.

At least in Arizona they have stupid motorist laws. Drive through a flooded road and get stuck and you have to be rescued you pay the entire bill... Not just the ambulance part.
Beautiful day here in S.W. Florida. I've got 74 degrees with bright sunshine. Expecting a high of 80 degrees today. Chance of some thunderstorms tomorrow.
The warmer than normal water off the coast of Africa could help the tropical waves when they come off.
Severe weather in a week...Blizzard too....maybe...



427. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA went up 1% more:

47% of Total Capacity
71% of Historical Avg. For This Date
428. MahFL
Quoting 425. washingtonian115:

The warmer than normal water off the coast of Africa could help the tropical waves when they come off.



That's not Africa.....
I wonder what happens when you put 2-3" of rain on top of 30" of snow?

Quoting 428. MahFL:



That's not Africa.....
Oh geez me to stupid -_-.I know that's not Africa.
Quoting 420. islander101010:

alot of folks speculated that the cool water temp. off greenland was due to melting. seriously doubt those characters were right as the area of cool waters seems to be getting larger


Why they need (the pros and scholars) to get the funding to go under (whether with submersibles or sensors) to try to get a grip on what is causing the pool and more importantly, where the source is of the flow near the bottom or mid-levels, as well as whether this denser area is also causing any problems with the Gulf stream flow; the two anomalies (the pile up of Gulf stream waters off the NE coast/Canada and the cold pool across the north Atlantic) are rather glaring this year:

432. MahFL
Quoting 419. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No Shovel Needed: Special Concrete Could Melt Mounds of Snow.


In the above example the snow outside the fence is not deep as "mounds".
What’s going on in the North Atlantic?
Filed under: Climate Science — stefan @ 23 March 2015
The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.


Rahmstorf_2015_1rc
Quoting 420. islander101010:

alot of folks speculated that the cool water temp. off greenland was due to melting. seriously doubt those characters were right as the area of cool waters seems to be getting larger

Increasing melting would explain the increasing area of cool waters
Quoting 404. StormTrackerScott:



Indeed it looks like we get a break for several days before rain returns mid next week but nothing like this week rainfall wise. However as JB eluded to this morning it appears come after the 5th of February the patterns flips back to a colder and potentially stormy one across the SE US. I know what you are seeing on the GFS but the Euro Ensembles show a different story compared to the GFS. Thinking any break we get to dry out will be brief.

There are many things JB would be wise to elude, however, I'm guessing that in this case he alluded.
Quoting 419. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No Shovel Needed: Special Concrete Could Melt Mounds of Snow.


I'm still not confident wire in concrete couldn.'t do the same thing. They quote 13w/foot**2 which comes out to 130watts/meter**2. That's 130*86400 joules/m**2day or about 12 million Joules which will melt..uuhh.. 12M/330 grams of ice/day, about 30kg/sq meter. That's 3cm of ice/day or about a foot of snow/day so it could get overwhelmed by high rates. I'm doing all this arithmetic in my head (in between compiles at work)
Quoting 429. smog00:

I wonder what happens when you put 2-3" of rain on top of 30" of snow?




Mid Atlantic Mid January 1996. 1 foot snow cover remained, dense and wet, 60s temps, 60 dewpoints 2-4" of rain
in a night.

What ensued is left as an exercise for the reader. (hint an 8 letter word beginning with F modified by the word "epic")

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 426. hydrus:

Severe weather in a week...Blizzard too....maybe...




Good morning, Hydrus. That system out seven days is the first I've seen this winter with a more typical Southeast severe weather look. It's not the first ones the models have forecast, only to have it underperform, so we'll see if the models stay with this one as we get closer.

The front for (mostly) tonight and tomorrow is looking healthier this morning than last night, and we should see some decent but not flooding type rain. Might even get a few thundershowers down this way but nothing severe. Things are a little trickier up your way. The NAM keeps wanting to slow this system down. The cold air is right behind the system now. If it slows down enough, the cold air will overrun the moisture and you'll get some snow. Doesn't look like any significant freezing rain though, either just snow or rain. At least we get a break after this one.

EDIT: Never fails...
Quoting 409. georgevandenberghe:



I should have put a smiley on mine too. Some of the latter do get their act together in college (perhaps second time 'round) and go on to do fine in life.


True. A couple of my younger brothers decided not to follow in their big brother's footsteps. After all, what did I know. :D

After a few years in HKU (Hard Knox University), they got the message. Now they do alright for themselves but they definitely took the long way around to get there. :)
Quoting 419. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No Shovel Needed: Special Concrete Could Melt Mounds of Snow.


Thanks, I couldn't get the hyperlink to work
Quoting 401. georgevandenberghe:

Didn't take the time to comment on previous blog but for me in College Park, the snow dump Friday and Saturday slightly underperformed. I got dry slotted and 2/3 of the metro area didn't but I suspect the total liquid water falling over the Appalachians and Coastal plain was perhaps a factor of .75 of what was forecast. Points west of me have awesome snowpacks but there have been higher water contents in the snowpack in past storms, e.g 1996 , 2003 and 2010. Here in College Park this storm was also remarkably easy and fast to shovel out because it wasn't dense. I got about 1.25-1.5" of liquid equivalent. I may be biased because I got dry slotted and it was much worse to my north and west but if the (some runs) forecast 3" of liquid water at points and 2.5" average inside the beltway had verified, we'd be looking at much worse conditions

I'll take my good fortune where I can get it and yes I'm feeling spared.



What a difference a few miles makes. I live south and west of you in southern Fairfax County. While what I shoveled wasn't particularly wet snow, it was packed tightly so weight was still a consideration for my back. If I'd had the time and space (small yard), nice tight snow bricks for an igloo could have been made from it.

I agree with getting somewhat spared. Never had drifts up to the doorknobs before (been at this house for 30 yrs) or unable to open the front door without shoving hard enough to get a shovel around to make a spot to stand so there was a square foot to put one's feet.

The snow-pack has melted down a lot for which I'm grateful. (Might see my heat pump before long and get off the back up heat.)