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Astounding Alex Hits the Azores: January’s First Atlantic Landfall in 61 Years

By: Bob Henson 9:29 PM GMT on January 15, 2016

The unseasonable wintertime hurricane that developed over the Northeast Atlantic on Thursday has been downgraded to Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex, but its place in the annals of hurricane history is secure. Alex became a hurricane at 15Z (10 am EST) Thursday and maintained Category 1 strength for almost 24 hours. Alex’s western eyewall made landfall on the island of Terceira in the central Azores, roughly 1000 miles west of Portugal, at around 8:15 am EST with tropical-storm force winds of 60 knots (70 mph). No major damage was reported. While approaching Terceira at 7 am EST, Alex was still classified as a minimal hurricane (75 mph winds). Most of Terceira was on the west (weaker) side of Alex, so hurricane-force winds might have been observed if Alex had tracked just a bit further west. The eyewall passed over Lajes Air Force Base, producing a minimum pressure of at least 29.18” (988 mb) (no wind observations from within an hour of landfall were available). Wind gusts to 58 mph were observed at Ponta Delgada, more than 100 miles southeast of Terceira, and gusts to 55 mph were reported at Santa Maria, roughly 200 miles southeast of Terceira. At 4 pm EST Friday, Alex was located about 300 miles north of Terceira, racing northward at 40 mph with sustained winds of 60 knots (70 mph).


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Alex at 9:20 am EST Friday, January 15, 2016. About an hour earlier, Alex’s western eywall passed over the Azores island of Terceira (black outline below the center of Alex). Image credit: NASA.

Not unprecedented, but very unusual
In records going back to 1851, only one other tropical cyclone in the Atlantic has made landfall in January: Hurricane Alice, which moved from northeast to southwest over the islands of Saint Martin and Saba on January 2. Alice’s heavy rain and rough seas caused damage totaling more than $4 million in current US dollars. Alice’s winds peaked at 90 mph, just above Alex’s peak sustained winds of 85 mph. The only other January hurricane in the Atlantic was Hurricane One on January 4, 1938. Three weaker cyclones have been observed in January: Tropical Storm Zeta (2005-06), Tropical Storm One (1951), and Subtropical Storm One (1978).

At any time of year, it’s quite uncommon for a hurricane to develop where Alex did. In a tweet on Thursday (see bottom), Alex Lamers noted that only one other tropical cyclone in Atlantic records is known to have become a hurricane north of 30°N and east of 30°W. That would be Hurricane Vince, one of the many oddities of the blockbuster 2005 Atlantic season. Vince went on to become the first tropical storm known to strike the Iberian Peninsula in more than 150 years.

The Northeast Atlantic is a challenging location for hurricane development thanks in large part to its relatively cool water. Alex took on its tropical characteristics while over waters that were 20-22°C (68-72°F). Although these are up to 1°C above average for this time of year, they are far cooler than usually required for tropical cyclone development. However, upper-level temperatures near Alex were unusually cold for the latitude, which meant that instability--driven by the contrast between warm, moist lower levels and cold, drier upper levels--was higher than it would otherwise be. That instability allowed showers and thunderstorms to blossom and consolidate, strengthening the warm core that made Alex a hurricane as opposed to an extratropical or subtropical storm. One could make a case that Alex was the last hurricane of 2015 rather than the first of 2016, as I discussed in a post on Thursday.

What about El Niño and climate change?
Sea-surface temperatures across the entire North Atlantic south of 35°N are warmer than average, part of a huge swath of above-average readings covering much of the globe. Some of these unusually warm waters are the result of El Niño, but the extent of the warmth--at record levels in many places--strongly suggests a link to longer-term climate change. It’s impossible to say without further research whether the extra oceanic warmth associated with Alex tipped the scales toward development, but it certainly didn’t hurt.

Alex doesn’t appear to be a classic manifestation of El Niño, based on previous January tropical cyclones since reliable El Niño records began in 1950:

Tropical Storm One (1951): La Niña
Hurricane Alice (1955): La Niña
Subtropical Storm One (1978): El Niño
Tropical Storm Zeta (2006): neutral, but leaning toward La Niña

Elsewhere in the tropics
The other hurricane shocker of this month, Hurricane Pali, has finally dissipated after toying with a run at the equator. Peaking at Category 2 strength during its eight-day life, Pali was the earliest tropical storm and earliest hurricane to develop between the International Date Line and the Americas, and it was closer to the equator than all but two other hurricanes in global records. Only two other tropical cyclones have been observed in January in the Central Pacific.

In the Southwest Pacific, a more seasonable Tropical Cyclone Victor is strengthening quickly about 300 miles east of Pago Pago. Victor could peak at Category 4 strength this weekend as it moves south, although it should not threaten any land areas.

We’ll be back with a new post on Martin Luther King, Jr., Day (Monday). Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 999. sar2401:

Especially when you don't know what you said that caused the ban. My sense of irony is sometimes just too much here. :-)


I know what you mean, I made a joke about a post quoting some show, probably The Simpsons, and poof

Quoting 1000. Dakster:



I feel the same way in Anchorage. If it just flurries, it doesn't count. I was mainly referring to the meteorological definition of snow...

One day I am going to drive and spend a few days in the winter, in Valdez, AK. They only get 600 - 700 inches of snow per year. I think that will cure my desire for a lot of snow...


But for Floridians, any snow that sticks probably counts. Growing up in NC anything that got us out of school counts, and often times it wasn't anything you could make a snowman or what have you
1002. weesej
Quoting 1000. Dakster:



I feel the same way in Anchorage. If it just flurries, it doesn't count. I was mainly referring to the meteorological definition of snow...

One day I am going to drive and spend a few days in the winter, in Valdez, AK. They only get 600 - 700 inches of snow per year. I think that will cure my desire for a lot of snow...


Can I come? That would be amazing to see.
1003. weesej
Quoting 1001. win1gamegiantsplease:



I know what you mean, I made a joke about a post quoting some show, probably The Simpsons, and poof



But for Floridians, any snow that sticks probably counts. Growing up in NC anything that got us out of school counts, and often times it wasn't anything you could make a snowman or what have you


No, but you'd put some socks on your hands and try your best, right? I grew up in Wilmington. The big snow storm in 89 happened right around my birthday and the start of Christmas break. I remember playing for a week in the snow with socks on my hands. Only real snowstorm I saw until my parents moved us to MI in 94
Quoting 1003. weesej:



No, but you'd put some socks on your hands and try your best, right? I grew up in Wilmington. The big snow storm in 89 happened right around my birthday and the start of Christmas break. I remember playing for a week in the snow with socks on my hands. Only real snowstorm I saw until my parents moved us to MI in 94


I live there now to go to finish up my schooling but I grew up near High Point, definitely saw decent snowfall many times but usually it was the dusting to an inch or two. Still got me out of classes with those small totals. The most snow I remember was probably around 99-00, we packed the snow as much as we could as it wasn't the wettest and then sled the next day with a slight coating of new flurries. Probably missed three days or so of school that week, the days where kids dreams are made in the south.
Quoting 993. aquak9:

Do ya'll really think that the snow it's "snowed" in Jacksonville,
counts as real snow?
There were no snowball fights, or even snowballs. No plows.
No Snowmen.

If ya'll wanna count Jacksonville snow as real snow, go ahead. But until I can actually PLAY in it, it doesn't count.


January or February of 1986 or 1987 is as close ad my memory comes for a 4" snow event in JAX
1006. Drakoen
So far the GFS 00z is colder at 850mb than at 12z.
Quoting 979. Tornado6042008X:

Fun fact: With 0.3" of snow at KDCA today we've surpassed the snow totals of the 1972-73 winter and 1997-98 winter.


But not the 1982-83 winter
The NWS has a "enhanced threat" for Thursday night through Saturday.
1009. aquak9
@1005- I actually have a picture from that day; we ran around and scraped it off the cars. Maybe a half-inch? Definitely no four inches, not where I was at. We saved the apple-sized snowball in the freezer.
1010. Drakoen
GFS 00z is digging the low into Texas similar to the UKMET and ECMWF.
GFS looking like it will be another big hit.
Quoting 996. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not Jacksonville, but Tallahassee in February 1899

[Link]

Though Tallahassee is a bit further inland and not on the ATL seaboard


Tallahassee had significant accumulating snow in December 1989 and also in 1958 (many other days but these are two I remember reading about).

1013. Drakoen
GFS 00z once again crushes the DMV.
1014. Drakoen
GFS 00z is a complete obliteration.
Quoting 1014. Drakoen:

GFS 00z is a complete obliteration.
We are 5.7 inches below normal for snow....Could get 5 times more than that with a single storm.
00z GFS.
37 inches for the immediate D.C area.What in the world? What to do with 3 feet of snow some may ask on the blog later tonight?
5-6 days out, and GFS is consistently showing Snowmageddon snow levels, this is really getting interesting.
45 inches of snow being shown.Haha their is no way we're going to get that much.Hopefully we have a slow melt because a rapid one...96 repeat all over again...
Quoting 1020. washingtonian115:

45 inches of snow being shown.Haha their is no way we're going to get that much.Hopefully we have a slow melt because a rapid one...96 repeat all over again...
LOL.
1022. Drakoen
Around and in excess of 3 feet for NOVA, CPA, MD, down into DC.
Quoting 1022. Drakoen:

Around and in excess of 3 feet for NOVA, CPA, MD, down into DC.
Almost 4 feet of snow with 45 inches being depicted.The whole area would be shut down for a week like what happened after snowmageddon and snoverkill.
Quoting 1017. washingtonian115:

37 inches for the immediate D.C area.What in the world? What to do with 3 feet of snow some may ask on the blog later tonight?
Quoting 1020. washingtonian115:

45 inches of snow being shown.Haha their is no way we're going to get that much.Hopefully we have a slow melt because a rapid one...96 repeat all over again...
Quoting 1022. Drakoen:

Around and in excess of 3 feet for NOVA, CPA, MD, down into DC.
I'm DEAD. X,D
WPC Outlook showing a clear textbook storm.
Silver showing up on the map.....
There are simply no words to describe the 00z gfs run we are seeing right now.
1028. Drakoen
It snows for almost 2 days straight on the GFS 00z.
Quoting 1026. washingtonian115:

Silver showing up on the map.....

Just slammed! Showing anywhere between 25-45 inches.
There are simply no words.
Need to pull this back out.
.
Next the CMC...If we still have this solution come Wednesday we could be looking at a potential historic storm.

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
GFS 00z snowfall forecast for potential storm is historically extreme. 25-40" or 2-3 feet over wide area ... solution closer to 12z ECMWF
Quoting 1028. Drakoen:

It snows for almost 2 days straight on the GFS 00z.
Almost the same for 18z GFS, although now 48 hrs!
Snow potential index - 4/10 (↑): Increasing chances of accumulation Fri-Sat, but lots of details to work out.
1036. Drakoen
Everyone is busy looking at the models, but there is some snow to our west moving east in association with the Arctic front moving through that will be keeping our highs into the 20s tomorrow.
00z CMC.
Here in coastal SC I'm praying that some how the low tracks just right to bring some measurable snow Fri-Sat. :)
DOOM....
Quoting 993. aquak9:

Do ya'll really think that the snow it's "snowed" in Jacksonville,
counts as real snow?
There were no snowball fights, or even snowballs. No plows.
No Snowmen.

If ya'll wanna count Jacksonville snow as real snow, go ahead. But until I can actually PLAY in it, it doesn't count.


Hey that's not true, sure that's true for up north, but any snow in Florida sure as heck counts as snow, even if it doesn't even really stick!
In fact, because Florida doesn't see enough hours below freezing, ground temps are much warmer than further north, so it takes pretty heavy snow falling to just to build up any accumulation.
GFS run summarized.
Quoting 1039. PedleyCA:

DOOM....
You literally can't go anywhere with 3 feet of snow on the ground.We'll see if we have this same scenario come mid-week.
Quoting 1038. Airstorms03:

Here in coastal SC I'm praying that some how the low tracks just right to bring some measurable snow Fri-Sat. :)


I wouldn't mind a little
Quoting 988. Dakster:



Yuck and it is still around... Just not in the US or Mexico...

Patrap - Since heartworm is spread by skeeters - anything that brings out more of them is bad. And usually we get a break in the winter.

JAX has gotten snow before. So has Orlando, FL... And a more southern city called Frostproof... which lies...


Lol, yeah frost proof definitely is not frostproof. In fact it usually sees frost every winter. There's a funny common pattern where people from frostproof will send in pictures of frost in their area to the local news stations as a joke about the name frostproof. More than likely the name was given by a naive snow bird that moved down and assumed it would be frost proof without actually spending a long enough time to find out first, lol.
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 2m
Moisture, tropopause dynamics and low pressure for potential massive snowstorm/blizzard Fri-Sat ... #crippling
We've never had a hurricane thrown into the mix before,for a January snowstorm which is probably why models are showing a historic storm.Again still several days away....

CMC shows a 33-35 inch snow storm but the bulls eye is north of the mason dixon line.
1047. Drakoen
GFS 00z shows surface winds in excess of 30knots. Potential is there for Blizzard Warnings.

00z CMC
1049. Drakoen
UKMET 00z

1050. Drakoen
Good GEFS with most members west and north of the mean.

Ian Livington @islivington 7m
Totals being put out by models are a little wild. Can't totally discount the idea given the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet.
1052. ChiThom
-1° F here going down to -5°, I don't even want to take out the garbage with the wind chill of -20° to -30° at times.
1047. Drakoen
11:53 PM EST on January 17, 2016
Do you know how high the snow drifts would be? The models do seem to be converging on a solution though.
1054. ChiThom
Sometimes (for example SAR 2401) when your posts don't get recorded, there is no reason whatsoever. I just spent the last ten minutes hitting the f5 button, to no avail.
I see the site is acting up again.... all the times are screwed up (21:52)
1056. ChiThom
Wind chill broke the blog. ;-l
1057. ChiThom
Quoting 1044. Jedkins01:



Lol, yeah frost proof definitely is not frostproof. In fact it usually sees frost every winter. There's a funny common pattern where people from frostproof will send in pictures of frost in their area to the local news stations as a joke about the name frostproof. More than likely the name was given by a naive snow bird that moved down and assumed it would be frost proof without actually spending a long enough time to find out first, lol.

Either that, or someone was trying to attract snowbirds with an optimistic name (Like Greenland)
Ian Livingston @islivington 3m
Totals being put out by models are a little wild. Can't totally discount the idea given the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet.
1059. ChiThom
Right now: Reykjavik Iceland 26° F. Nuuk Greenland 37° F. Chicagoland -1° F. And so it goes.
If my posts showed twice, sorry about that, it seems posts are running slow, if not, don't worry about it.
1061. ChiThom
Good night. Sleep tight... Don't let the wind chill bite!
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 9m9 minutes ago
.@NEWeatherRants well I was talking liquid. these kind of numbers are basically unheard of in a winter storm here.

Super el nino plus hurricane will do that....
Is there some sort of blog hole?
1064. ChiThom
.
Red Bellied Woodpecker
Quoting 1050. Drakoen:

Good GEFS with most members west and north of the mean.




So we get windy rain showers, that's pretty neat

The North is getting their share....
1068. Drakoen
Quoting 1053. washingtonian115:

1047. Drakoen
11:53 PM EST on January 17, 2016
Do you know how high the snow drifts would be? The models do seem to be converging on a solution though.


I'm not sure about that. I would tack on a foot or so in drifts if Blizzard conditions do come to pass.
and images are falling through the cracks....
1070. sar2401
Quoting 1044. Jedkins01:



Lol, yeah frost proof definitely is not frostproof. In fact it usually sees frost every winter. There's a funny common pattern where people from frostproof will send in pictures of frost in their area to the local news stations as a joke about the name frostproof. More than likely the name was given by a naive snow bird that moved down and assumed it would be frost proof without actually spending a long enough time to find out first, lol.
The name Frostproof came from a set of land developers who were attempting sell agricultural land to citrus growers and other growers of tender crops. The name change from Keystone City happened in 1898. Unfortunately, the farmers found out the hard way Frostproof wasn't really immune to frost,and most were wiped out in multiple freezes in the early 1920's. This was the same concept used by Miami real estate developers to convince land and home buyers that Miami didn't have hurricanes. That worked until the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, which also destroyed most of the remaining citrus groves in Frostproof and surrounding areas. This plunged Florida into a depression four years before the rest of the country also entered a depression. You'd never know it today, but Florida did not emerge from its depression until the mid-1950's, when reliable and safe airline service plus interstates revived the tourist industry and started Florida back on the road to prosperity.
1072. sar2401
Almost time for the weekly posting shutdown to begin...
1073. Drakoen
18z GFS parallel which comes out 6 hours+ after the GFS 18z, absolutely buries NOVA, MD, DC.
Quoting 1073. Drakoen:

18z GFS parallel which comes out 6 hours+ after the GFS 18z, absolutely buries NOVA, MD, DC.
Ian from CWG noted that the amount of liquid available hat the models are showing are unheard of for this time of year.Shows you what we're dealing with here.........
1075. Drakoen
ECMWF 00z looks similar to the GFS 18z Para maybe a touch South.
1076. Drakoen
ECMWF 00z at 120hr is farther south. I would expect the snow axis to run through NOVA, central MD-DC, and Northeast.
Euro pulling a GFS....
Quoting 1065. PedleyCA:



West slope of the Mtns. seem to be getting a good soaking. Here on the E. side of the crest, I received only 0.06 inches today (all rain).
1080. Drakoen
Quoting 1077. washingtonian115:

Euro pulling a GFS....


DC in the bullseye. Absolutely shafts areas in PA where it was giving over 3 feet in the 12z run.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 2m2 minutes ago
lolol euro. #somuchqpf

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago Steamboat Springs, CO
ECMWF 00z slightly different track but still a crippling swathe of 20-30 inches snow from DC thru Jersey & Southern New England on weekend
1082. Drakoen
Quoting 1081. washingtonian115:

Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 2m2 minutes ago
lolol euro. #somuchqpf

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago Steamboat Springs, CO
ECMWF 00z slightly different track but still a crippling swathe of 20-30 inches snow from DC thru Jersey & Southern New England on weekend


Eurowx snow map that uses the Kuchera algorithm has over 2 feet with the eastern suburbs around 3 feet.
Quoting 1082. Drakoen:



Eurowx snow map that uses the Kuchera algorithm has over 2 feet with the eastern suburbs around 3 feet.
The Euro has been very consistent so far for a 20" plus snow storm for the D.C area.Last time they had this much agreement was for Joaquin (in terms of a intensifying storm not track)
Quoting 1083. washingtonian115:

The Euro has been very consistent so far for a 20" plus snow storm for the D.C area.Last time they had this much agreement was for Joaquin (in terms of a intensifying storm not track)


Rooting for the MA snow. Snowfall rates have really come down now in Boston. It's snowing pretty steadily but at this rate it's gonna be 1 inch in maybe 8 hours. Hard to see snow outside of lights. Still awaiting that real snowstorm.
1085. hydrus
Quoting 1046. washingtonian115:

We've never had a hurricane thrown into the mix before,for a January snowstorm which is probably why models are showing a historic storm.Again still several days away....

CMC shows a 33-35 inch snow storm but the bulls eye is north of the mason dixon line.
Something going to happen.. The AO is at -5, and that is way low. It is heading to positive in rapid fashion. NAO is still negative too, so the storm wont move out quickly..Models are really latching on to this. I believe the weather over part of the U.S. is going be very unusual. Storms are coming.


Quoting 1064. ChiThom:

.
Red Bellied Woodpecker


Saw one of those on my last day in Tennessee. Darn thing was trying to see if there was food in my home's posts. >.<
1087. hydrus
Model shows the east coast storm for late this week tapping into the subtropical jet. This could increase moisture greatly, leading to a more damaging storm..Also 985 mb now..

Periodic Banding like pattern setting up. Hard to tell when it'll end or how many bands will hit but snow rates are finally picking up again.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #20
HURRICANE WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR, CATEGORY THREE (08F)
18:00 PM FST January 18 2016
=============================
East of Niue
Southwest of Southern Cook Islands (Palmerston)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT is in force for Niue

A GALE WARNING is in force for Palmerston of the Southern Cook Islands

A GALE WARNING is in force for Suwarrow of the Northern Cook Islands is CANCELLED


At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor, Category Three (975 hPa) located at 19.1S 166.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES visible imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
140 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent with convective bands wrapping around low level circulation center. Organization remains good. Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region and in a low sheared environment. Circulation extends to 250HPA. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye surrounded by MG yields DT=4.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 20.3S 166.2W - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 21.0S 166.8W - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.5S 168.7W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
1090. hydrus
A very cold night here on the plateau. Temp is 12 degrees with wind out of the n.w. at 10 mph, with a few higher gusts. Tomorrow nights temp forecast to be 5 degrees. , but no wind.
Quoting 1070. sar2401:

The name Frostproof came from a set of land developers who were attempting sell agricultural land to citrus growers and other growers of tender crops. The name change from Keystone City happened in 1898. Unfortunately, the farmers found out the hard way Frostproof wasn't really immune to frost,and most were wiped out in multiple freezes in the early 1920's. This was the same concept used by Miami real estate developers to convince land and home buyers that Miami didn't have hurricanes. That worked until the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, which also destroyed most of the remaining citrus groves in Frostproof and surrounding areas. This plunged Florida into a depression four years before the rest of the country also entered a depression. You'd never know it today, but Florida did not emerge from its depression until the mid-1950's, when reliable and safe airline service plus interstates revived the tourist industry and started Florida back on the road to prosperity.


Speaking of Florida frosts, here is a pic of a heavy frost that settled down the hill in my back pasture near Ocala on the morning of the 12th when it dropped to 28 degrees. Havent figured out how to post the pic so here is a link to the photo:

Link
1092. hydrus
Quoting 1040. Jedkins01:



Hey that's not true, sure that's true for up north, but any snow in Florida sure as heck counts as snow, even if it doesn't even really stick!
In fact, because Florida doesn't see enough hours below freezing, ground temps are much warmer than further north, so it takes pretty heavy snow falling to just to build up any accumulation.
To this day ,I have never seen snow stick in Florida,,
1093. LargoFl
a lot of uncertainty yet on how much snow and how slow the storm moves etc.............
1094. weesej
Quoting 1079. washingtonian115:




Boo! 3" what....no fair. It'll flip back;)
final band looks to be the biggest:



winds also picked up, I'm freezing outside now
1096. barbamz
Good morning!


Saved current view from Hochkoenig mountain in the northern Alps (Austria near the German border). Source.

Spendid sunshine in central Europe today (and it should stay dry the next days) - but it is CHILLY!


Lowest temps last night in Europe. Everything in purple is lower than 10F (let alone grey which is lower than -4F).
Shades of last winter, this will be a tough one to call

Quoting 1097. wartsttocs:

Shades of last winter, this will be a tough one to call




Haha puts down 20" in boston. After tonights 4-5" snowstorm I can't wait to see more.
Quoting 1098. GeorgiaStormz:



Haha puts down 20" in boston. After tonights 4-5" snowstorm I can't wait to see more.


You didn't get your fill last winter? Only 2 maybe 3 inches up here 45 min north of Boston this morning.
1100. elioe
Quoting 1096. barbamz:




Good morning. Lowest temp last night at the nearest weather station (Tampere Härmälä) was -26.6 C. It has been very cold here (but climatologically pretty normal) for the past two weeks. I have missed the anomalous temperatures of December, when they were commonly between +5C and +10C. Any way we could speed up the global warming, lol?
Quoting 1091. Wacahootaman:



Speaking of Florida frosts, here is a pic of a heavy frost that settled down the hill in my back pasture near Ocala on the morning of the 12th when it dropped to 28 degrees. Havent figured out how to post the pic so here is a link to the photo:

Link


Had a bit of the same frost about 60 miles to your northwest......is that your 21" bush hog just inside the fence line?

1102. barbamz
Quoting 1100. elioe:



Good morning. Lowest temp last night at the nearest weather station (Tampere Harmala) was -26.6 C. It has been very cold here (but climatologically pretty normal) for the past two weeks. I have missed the anomalous temperatures of December, when they were commonly between 5C and 10C. Any way we could speed up the global warming, lol?

-26,6C? Umm, terrible! How do the refugees in Finland (and Sweden) cope with that? - And if you're fed up with this frost, maybe moving to Svalbard would be a good idea. Once again a tongue of mild air (around 0C or even above) is reaching the artic:

1103. MahFL
Just saw on TWC a women who was in the FL tornado did not know what to do when she got the tornado warning, so she googled what to do, lol.
1105. barbamz
Stuttgart asked to stop driving as city faces record pollution
The Local (Germany) Published: 18 Jan 2016 10:53 GMT 01:00
City authorities in Stuttgart called on citizens to leave their car at home on Monday, as a fine particle pollution alarm was issued for the first time ever in a large German city. ...
Daimler and Porsche are both based in and around the city, along with many smaller car-parts manufacturers. ...
Fine particle alerts are issued by the city when German Weather Service (DWD) monitoring predicts very little movement of air on two successive days.
A layer of warm air high up prevents cold air closer to the ground from rising out of cities and valleys, leaving the particles that would ordinarily be borne away trapped with it at low levels. - where people might breathe them in.
This happens most often in winter, with the highest risk coming when there has been no rain or snow for several days.
According to the DWD, the high levels of fine particle pollution announced in Stuttgart today could last for up to a week due to weather conditions.

More see link above.


Saved current view from live cam Stuttgart (more available). Ah, you can see the dirty air hanging around in that cauldron.

Coincidentally:
Shock figures to reveal deadly toll of global air pollution
The Guardian, Jan 16, 2016
The World Health Organisation has issued a stark new warning about deadly levels of pollution in many of the world's biggest cities, claiming poor air quality is killing millions and threatening to overwhelm health services across the globe. ...
Quoting 1103. MahFL:

Just saw on TWC a women who was in the FL tornado did not know what to do when she got the tornado warning, so she googled what to do, lol.


Don't they tell you in the bulletin...?
1107. elioe
Quoting 1102. barbamz:


-26,6C? Umm, terrible! How do the refugees in Finland (and Sweden) cope with that? - And if you're fed up with this frost, maybe moving to Svalbard would be a good idea. Once again a tongue of mild air (around 0C or even above) is reaching the artic:

There's no refugee centre within 10 km from where I live. But what I've heard from friends and relatives around the country, refugees are not seen on streets as widely as they were during December. Not sure though, if it's because they remain inside due to the cold weather, or because they have decided to go back to Middle East.

Of course, Svalbard would be a refuge from this cold, but first I would have to learn to use a rifle. Or alternatively, I could learn, how to become a polar bear. :)
1108. beell
So far, the dry slot does not appear to play the spoiler for DC snow. It moves offshore fairly quickly. Of these four frames, (below) only yesterday's 12Z would be worrisome to snow lovers.

700 mb Relative Humidity


01/17 12Z GFS / 01/17 18Z


01/18 00Z / 01/18 06Z
(click for larger images)

I'll offer up a middle-of-the-road 24" WAG for DC.
1109. beell
Quoting 1106. KoritheMan:



Don't they tell you in the bulletin...?


Pretty sure they don't tell you to seek shelter in a google search. Twitter would probably be a better choice.
/sarc (just in case...)
NWS has the region under a moderate risk now.
06z GFS.
EPS.
brrr......e.cen.florida
1115. Grothar
Picked up 1.6" Friday & 1.3" Sunday giving me 3.84" for January which is much above average for January.
1118. Dakster
Quoting 1092. hydrus:

To this day ,I have never seen snow stick in Florida,,


I doubt we will see a snow stick in Florida for many generations... You might need a water stick if the oceans keep rising though.
Quoting 1116. tampabaymatt:




That El-Nino jet is firmly entrenched. Next series of storms arrive Friday. It appears next week's system will be a slow mover and could have more severe weather with it across FL.

Look at this jet pattern for next Tuesday and BTW the Euro is very similar to this.

06z GFS ensembles.
Don't know if you guys have been paying attention to the SOI as it could post the lowest January 30 day average ever. Once we get rid of these positive numbers from December then we could see the SOI drop to the -20 to -25 range. incredible power to this El-Nino still with no signs of declining anytime soon infact we could see Nino 3.4 near 3C over the coming weeks thanks to this latest WWB.
Quoting 1027. Tornado6042008X:

There are simply no words to describe the 00z gfs run we are seeing right now.


I'm kinda hoping "wrong" describes it.
Quoting 1119. StormTrackerScott:



That El-Nino jet is firmly entrenched. Next series of storms arrive Friday. It appears next week's system will be a slow mover and could have more severe weather with it across FL.

Look at this jet pattern for next Tuesday and BTW the Euro is very similar to this.




Yup, the subtropical jet is raging across FL with no change in sight. Friday's storms shouldn't be too bad as the low will be moving over land well north of FL. But, it's only a matter of time before the next low comes across the FL peninsula with this pattern locked in. Believe it or not, things could actually get worse as the last two events had low instability and daytime heating to work with. Things could get really bad across FL in the coming weeks.
1125. vis0

bare with me not weather related but chances are by the time i get back on the webnet washi115 will be living in Australia.


having very bad script errors looks like my winXP that just a ~month ago got to work again is a gonner.


posting this months free invention idea which i wanted to post Wednesday but didn't want to jinx spaceX.


the idea is on a youtube VID its explained on my zilly blog pg6 cmmnt275


pass the idea to spaceX, see you in 2017

hope i can be back soon soon but if not...
 i hope all have a fruitful Martin Luther King day, Passover, Hanukkah, spring, Memorial day, 4 of July,. summer, Veterans day, Thanksgiving, 410++.....ppm : - (,  Christmas, happy new year 2017...


Quoting 1084. GeorgiaStormz:



Rooting for the MA snow. Snowfall rates have really come down now in Boston. It's snowing pretty steadily but at this rate it's gonna be 1 inch in maybe 8 hours. Hard to see snow outside of lights. Still awaiting that real snowstorm.
Somebody Doesn't take the MBTA
Quoting 1123. georgevandenberghe:



I'm kinda hoping "wrong" describes it.



You are hoping wrong? I am hoping wrong. The 1 inch of first snowfall here on south shore of Long Island NY apparently making it hard for newly rescued 1 year old adopted female MINI DACHSHUND to do her business outside. She squats and butt hits the cold snow, and refusing to go OUTSIDE.....lol
1129. Drakoen
Quoting 1108. beell:

So far, the dry slot does not appear to play the spoiler for DC snow. It moves offshore fairly quickly. Of these four frames, (below) only yesterday's 12Z would be worrisome to snow lovers.

700 mb Relative Humidity


01/17 12Z GFS / 01/17 18Z


01/18 00Z / 01/18 06Z
(click for larger images)

I'll offer up a middle-of-the-road 24" WAG for DC.


Is that a forecast from you beell? Saving this. ;)
Quoting 1101. KuCommando:



Had a bit of the same frost about 60 miles to your northwest......is that your 21" bush hog just inside the fence line?




Yep,I was using it to take down some old dead "swamp sunflowers" bushes that I planted along the fence. They will come back in full bloom next October.

Link
Next Up: 12z GFS
1132. hydrus
Quoting 1118. Dakster:



I doubt we will see a snow stick in Florida for many generations... You might need a water stick if the oceans keep rising though.

Hello Drak..I misspoke. I should have said I never have seen snow stick in South Florida...My bad.
1133. 62901IL
Right now in Carbondale, it's a cold as feth outside. Now expecting 2-4 inches of snow.
1134. 62901IL
1135. ariot
Quoting 1128. longislander102:



You are hoping wrong? I am hoping wrong. The 1 inch of first snowfall here on south shore of Long Island NY apparently making it hard for newly rescued 1 year old adopted female MINI DACHSHUND to do her business outside. She squats and butt hits the cold snow, and refusing to go OUTSIDE.....lol


get two bales of pine straw (hay works, but some dogs get skin reaction) and use it to make a spot after snow, should solve the problem, and two bales should last quite a while for a tiny dog :D
1136. hydrus
Quoting 1119. StormTrackerScott:



That El-Nino jet is firmly entrenched. Next series of storms arrive Friday. It appears next week's system will be a slow mover and could have more severe weather with it across FL.

Look at this jet pattern for next Tuesday and BTW the Euro is very similar to this.


That looks bad .Shows a pattern good for a mature phasing event...Those winter storms are the worst. I been giving the odds at 60%...May have to kick up a notch..:)
1137. 62901IL


We're going to wait until the sun gets a little higher in the sky (yeah like that's going to really help) to go down to the MLK memorial.If the temperatures weren't so cold we were going to take the train however today is one of those days where you don't want to stand outside for long.Parking is difficult near the memorial but with the cold I doubt as many people as we thought would go won't be down there (at least for long).
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1053. washingtonian115:

1047. Drakoen
11:53 PM EST on January 17, 2016
Do you know how high the snow drifts would be? The models do seem to be converging on a solution though.


From my experience in Colorado, with 30MPH winds and a lower water to snow ratio, you can double the amounts, so 45 inches of snow would be 7 to 8 foot drifts, especially in areas where the wind comes in and runs into larger structures.
1143. vis0

Quoting 882. Xulonn:

Very funny, Barb. Apparently that Welsh town with the long name is well known - and indeed, publicity was the original reason that the town adopted the name. But I doubt that it will ever be used as the name for a storm!

I noticed that the Austrian town name that is the "F" word in English is conspicuously absent from the second YouTube video - although it is discussed as a topic at Wikipedia. The village name is apparently not offensive in German (the language of Austria), but if I posted a picture of the road sign bearing the name road sign at the village limits, I would quickly receive a WU ban.

Irish comedian and talk show host Graham Norton did a hilarious piece where he called Austria to discuss a possible trip to the village. The video is on YouTube without adult-content restrictions, but as with the city-limits sign, I won't post or link to it because of WU the "decency" rules.

Again, I assume that although it is a legitimate European village name, it will never be used as a storm name.
maybe as an adjective before the storm name?