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Army Corps Opens Bonnet Carré Spillway; a January Subtropical Storm in the Atlantic?

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 11:54 PM GMT on January 10, 2016

At 10 am CST January 10, 2016, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened the gates on the Bonnet Carré Spillway in St. Charles Parish, Louisiana to allow flood waters from the swollen Mississippi River to flow into Lake Pontchartrain. This is the earliest that the Corps has been forced to open the spillway, and just the 11th time since it became operational in 1931 that it has been used. The only other time the spillway has been opened in January was back in 1937. All of the other openings have come in spring or early summer. Opening of the spillway is expected to keep the Mississippi River below its 17-foot flood stage in New Orleans--just 3 feet below the tops of the levees. The river is expected to crest in New Orleans on Tuesday, January 12. There is also chance that the Corps will be forced to open the Morganza Floodway in Pointe Coupee Parish northwest of Baton Rouge, which would divert water from the Mississippi River down the Atchafalaya River. This floodway has been opened only twice--in 1973 and 2011--and has a considerably higher cost of being opened than opening of the Bonnet Carré Spillway, due to the large amount of agricultural lands that would be flooded below the Morganza Floodway. The Sunday morning forecast from the NWS River Forecast Center predicted that the Mississippi River would crest at Red River Landing, just above the Morganza Floodway, on January 18. The predicted crest of 61.0' is just 2.4' below the all-time record crest of 63.39' set on May 18, 2011, when the Corps was forced to open the Morganza Floodway in order to relieve pressure on the Old River Control Structure. The earliest the Corps would open the Morganza Floodway would be Wednesday, January 13.


Figure 1. Hundreds of people, some parking a mile or more away, trekked to the Bonnet Carré Spillway to view its historic opening on January 10, 2016. Image credit: Bob Henson.

An eyewitness account from Bob Henson on the opening of the Bonnet Carré Spillway
My fellow blogger Bob Henson happened to be in the New Orleans area on Sunday, ahead of this week's annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society. He provided this first-hand report: "Chilly north winds were whisking across the bayou as hundreds of people streamed toward the Bonnet Carré Spillway. I was glad I brought a heavy coat from Colorado! The best viewing was on the outlet side. After a press conference with several speakers, including New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu, U.S. Corps of Engineers workers began the laborious process of using cranes to carefully pull the long wooden pins, called needles, upward from the control structure, one by one. About 8,000 cubic feet of water per second was already forcing its way through the crevices between needles. As each needle was removed, more water cascaded from the Mississippi into the outlet flowing toward Lake Pontchartrain. It was fascinating to watch the whole process unfold at its own deliberate pace, and to hear the gradually increasing roar of the water. I also loved the slice of Louisiana life carved out in this very public event. Despite all the horrors of Katrina, and what one person characterized as a ‘love-hate relationship’ with the Corps of Engineers, the mood here was very upbeat. This time, the system was working as it was meant to. Even the winter chill added a touch of novelty, as it underscored the unusual timing of this massive flood crest. I’m feeling incredibly lucky that the timing coincided so well with my arrival here for this week's American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting--which seems to be so often cursed with bad weather, but not with historic high water!"


Figure 2. The opening of the Bonnet Carré Spillway was a spectacle in itself. Crowds watched as wooden pins called needles guarding the Bonnet Carré Spillway were methodically removed.Image credit: Bob Henson.


Figure 3. Extracting a needle--very carefully--from the Bonnet Carré Spillway. Each of the 350 concrete bays holds 20 needles. Image credit: Bob Henson.


Figure 4. Crowds lined the slopes of the outlet between the Mississippi and Lake Ponchartrain. Image credit: Bob Henson.


Figure 5. On the Mississippi side of the Bonnet Carré spillway. Is this Louisiana or Minnesota?!


Video 1.  Two work crews remove pins from two bays of the Bonnet Carré Spillway.


Video 2.  Comments from New Orleans native Lisa Arcoleo.


Video 3.  Comments from Sabina Miller (@sweetsabinas), Thibodaux, LA.


January subtropical storm possible in the Atlantic late this week
In the Atlantic, a powerful nontropical low is stirring up the waters east of Bermuda with a large area of strong winds, some as high as 75 mph (Category 1 hurricane-force!) Models continue to move this system toward the southeast and then east this week, which could put it in a more favorable environment for subtropical development. Ocean temperatures are at near-record warm levels for this time of year in the waters east of Bermuda (about 3 - 4°F above average), which is just high enough so that a pre-existing storm like this one, which has been cut off from the jet stream and lingers over these marginally warm waters for a few days, has the potential to become a subtropical storm. On Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center gave 2-day and 5-day odds of this system developing into a subtropical storm of 20% and 40%, respectively. Regardless of development, the storm may bring heavy rains and strong winds in excess of 50 mph to the Azores Islands on Friday.


Figure 6. MODIS satellite image of the low pressure system east of Bermuda that was generating hurricane-force winds on the afternoon of January 10, 2016. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

A January named storm in the Atlantic--how rare?
Only one January tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851--an unnamed 1938 hurricane that became a tropical storm on January 3 well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and lasted until January 6. There has also been one subtropical storm to form in January: Subtropical Storm One of January 18 – 23, 1978. Two other named storms that formed in late December managed to last into January, though--Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 30, 2005 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands, and Hurricane Alice, which formed on December 30, 1954, and tracked west-southwest into the Caribbean, where it dissipated on January 7, 1955.


Figure 7. VIIRS visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Ula taken on January 10, 2016. At the time, Ula was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Ula becomes Earth's first Category 4 storm of 2016
Tropical Cyclone Ula became Earth first Category 4 storm of 2016 on Sunday, hitting sustained wind of 130 mph in the South Pacific waters about 300 miles east-northeast of New Caledonia. Ula is headed poleward on a track which should miss any populated islands, fortunately. Ula passed near Vanuatu's southern islands after hitting Fiji and Tonga last week. Ula was at Category 2 strength when it hit Tonga, causing widespread damage, with roofs ripped from homes and utility lines downed by strong winds. No deaths or injuries have been reported from the storm, though.

The Southern Hemisphere’s annual tropical cyclone season, which peaks in February - March, has gotten off to an unusually slow start. Ula reached hurricane strength on December 31, becoming the latest-forming first hurricane-strength tropical cyclone of a Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season since the 1987-1988 season, according to CSU’s Dr. Phil Klotzbach.

Tropical Storm Pali meandering in Central Pacific
The earliest tropical storm on record in the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Pali, had 50 mph winds on Sunday evening as it meandered over the waters about 1,450 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Pali is not a threat to any land areas.

We'll have a new post by Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I hope we get a January hurricane. Out in the middle of the Atlantic where it harms no one. Fun to track.
thanks for the update
nice sunday evening read
TS Pali is interesting to watch : since it was designated, it struggled a lot against the wind shear, almost died yesterday and now it's making a come-back with quite strong convection building up around the center. It even looked kind of like a jellyfish a few hours ago on the IR/visible sat. pictures. The intensity models are now showing a strong bias towards intensification, but the official forecast has remained optimistic, hinting at a possible dissipation within the next 3-5 days, if I read both official and models forecast correctly. There is now room for surprises...

Link

Intensity estimate, from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Link

((Thanks for this article, by the way. Very informative, I'm also eager to watch/read about the AMS annual meeting. I guess that again, more "faster than expected" climate change research news are gonna come out of it right after the last AGU Fall Meeting...))
Thanks for the Update...
Thanks for the interesting new blog entry with some impressive selfmade photos, Bob and Doc!

News from a much dryer place:

Solar in the Sahara
NASA Earth Observatory, January 10, 2016
Morocco gets plenty of sun - about 3,000 hours per year, according to the Solar GCC Alliance. A new solar plant in that desert country is poised to take advantage of the ample Saharan sunlight.
The images above show the first phase of the solar complex, Noor 1, located at the "door of the desert" in the south-central Moroccan town of Ouarzazate. ...
Noor 1 has a power-generating capacity of 160 megawatts. When construction on subsequent phases is completed sometime around 2020, the complex will be capable of producing 580 megawatts. It will become the largest concentrated solar power plant in the world. Almost half of Morocco's energy is expected to come from renewables, about one-third of which will be from solar. ...

More see link above.

Good night and a pleasant new week from Germany which is promised to experience some winter even in the south at the end of this week. I didn't get any frost in my town Mainz so far this winter, so this forecast would mean a change if it pans out ... ;-)
Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:


NWS Tampa is very lucky nobody was killed last night. I'd imagine someone's in a lot of trouble for not issuing a tornado warning in a timely fashion in light of a very distinct signature on radar (the strongest I'd say I've ever seen in Florida).


Yeah that was definitely a much later warning than usual given NWS policy, they would rather have someone even issue a borderline tornado warning than not. Something went wrong, but mistakes do happen to the best of us...

And while that was definitely a strong radar signature, I don't think it's the strongest. There have been over 300 tornadoes in Florida rated at EF2, and about 40 tornadoes of EF3 strength or stronger. But there have only been 2 or 3 tornadoes of EF4 strength, and none at EF5.

Surprisingly, the highest concentration of stronger tornadoes and tornadoes as a whole in Florida actually lies across the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando instead of north Florida like one might expect. It's somewhat known as the I-4 tornado alley to local meteorologists. The majority of EF3 or stronger tornadoes have occurred in that area, and the only EF4's in state history also occurred in that region.

It's worth noting that no EF3 tornadoes have been recorded in the Naples/Ft. Myers area in contrast, so this tornado may be the strongest on record in the Ft. Myers area, given it was rated on the upper most tier for an EF2.

There is an obvious gaping whole in terms of a lack of tornado reports in rural parts of Florida compared to the larger city areas, either rural Floridians don't report them, or thick forests and swamps make tornado reporting not so practical.


(From last blog)
Snowy owl filmed by traffic camera in Montreal, January 3, 2016. Obnoxious music at beginning.

Nice catch Brian! Thanks for sharing.

Looks like we're in the bullseye.
I always find it odd that the stories that mention opening the Morganza Floodway carry a higher cost due to flooding of agricultural lands. The whole reason why that land is good agricultural land in the first place is that historically it was flooded by fertile river silt on a more regular basis than it is now. Anyone on that land that isn't prepared for such an event is probably in the wrong business...
Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
One of the strongest westerly wind bursts on record just occurred- about = to 1997's record HT
Quoting 14. Gearsts:

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
One of the strongest westerly wind bursts on record just occurred- about = to 1997's record HT



Wow; I wonder how the equatorial SSTs are gonna react to this...
Quoting 13. GojiraST:

I always find it odd that the stories that mention opening the Morganza Floodway carry a higher cost due to flooding of agricultural lands. The whole reason why that land is good agricultural land in the first place is that historically it was flooded by fertile river silt on a more regular basis than it is now. Anyone on that land that isn't prepared for such an event is probably in the wrong business...


Hey, that's Godzilla's name in Japanese.
Quoting 8. Jedkins01:



Yeah that was definitely a much later warning than usual given NWS policy, they would rather have someone even issue a borderline tornado warning than not. Something went wrong, but mistakes do happen to the best of us...

And while that was definitely a strong radar signature, I don't think it's the strongest. There have been over 300 tornadoes in Florida rated at EF2, and about 40 tornadoes of EF3 strength or stronger. But there have only been 2 or 3 tornadoes of EF4 strength, and none at EF5.

Surprisingly, the highest concentration of stronger tornadoes and tornadoes as a whole in Florida actually lies across the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando instead of north Florida like one might expect. It's somewhat known as the I-4 tornado alley to local meteorologists. The majority of EF3 or stronger tornadoes have occurred in that area, and the only EF4's in state history also occurred in that region.

It's worth noting that no EF3 tornadoes have been recorded in the Naples/Ft. Myers area in contrast, so this tornado may be the strongest on record in the Ft. Myers area, given it was rated on the upper most tier for an EF2.

There is an obvious gaping whole in terms of a lack of tornado reports in rural parts of Florida compared to the larger city areas, either rural Floridians don't report them, or thick forests and swamps make tornado reporting not so practical.


(From last blog)


Agreed, when the funding for the original nexrad system was passed, Southwest Florida was really alot more swampland and small cow towns. Now it's beginning to rival Orlando or Tampa in terms of size and rapidly growing. I really hope a new WSR or TDWR is studied again to provide low level scans over this area as the radars out of Tampa and Miami have base scans at 8 to 10K feet.
If Alex forms this month, will it be the first time ever that named storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific formed in January?
Thanks to Wunderblogger beell, I was able to watch the opening of the Morganza spillway, live. Got to watch the press conference, too. He had the Ustream link on his blog.
Just to clarify, the Bonnet Carre project consist of two parts, a weir structure and the spillway itself. That long (7,000 feet) concrete structure is the weir, and on top of that is the needle dam, a fairly rare type of dam. The "gates" are closed with the needles, the telephone pole like objects being lifted with the crane. There are 350 bays in the dam and about 7,000 needles. The weir is a lower concrete structure that acts as a dam when the river is below normal flows. As the flow increase, some water leaks through each bay, since the needles are not meant to be watertight.

Once the river gets near flood stage, the Corps makes a decision about how many bays to open out of the 350. I don't know how many will get pulled this time, but there were 330 bays opened in the flood of 2011, and I imagine it will be about the same this time. If the two cranes worked 24 hours a day, it would take about 36 hours to open all the bays and pull all the needles. They will probably do it over a matter of day to reduce pressure on the bay structure. The needles only lean against the bay structure, and are held in place by water pressure. There is an emergency procedure in the event of even worse flooding. There are cables strung behind all the needles, and the cables can be pulled by those same cranes. Each pull would knock about 20 needles out of the bay and send them downstream. In theory, they could open all the bays this way in three hours. Except for some some small scale dry season tests, this option has never been used, and I suspect it's doubtful if it will work as planned, considering the cable releases have been in place since 1931. In the event of some really catastrophic flooding, an emergency release would really be something to see given there will be the equivalent of 7,000 big telephone poles headed downstream in a short period of time. Those people hanging around at the edge of the flow in Figure 4 would be in a little trouble in that case.
According the the second ACE speaker today, they will open ten more bays tomorrow, then re-calculate accordingly for the rest of the week.
Quoting 13. GojiraST:

I always find it odd that the stories that mention opening the Morganza Floodway carry a higher cost due to flooding of agricultural lands. The whole reason why that land is good agricultural land in the first place is that historically it was flooded by fertile river silt on a more regular basis than it is now. Anyone on that land that isn't prepared for such an event is probably in the wrong business...
The cost is associated with growing crops destroyed due to the flooding. The calculations are based on the normal late spring and early summer releases, when new crops have been planted and are coming up. Part of the cost is also the amount of time farmers lose in planting replacement crops, since the fields can't be worked for at least a couple of weeks after a release. I don't know how those calculations would change for a January release, when there isn't much, if anything, growing, but the cost should be a lot less.
Quoting 22. aquak9:

According the the second ACE speaker today, they will open ten more bays tomorrow, then re-calculate accordingly for the rest of the week.
That makes sense, since the amount of water coming down appears to be a little less than initially feared. The Corps has downstream responsibilities for fishwater and sediment flow into the Delta, so they don't want to release more than absolutely required.
This storm is really on to something, and it's approaching an area of the ocean that's really hot, but another forming depression south of it is dragging a lot of the available moisture away from it.

Pali:


Here's a Link that will show you the loop, also with more recent pictures.
---
And I have to admit this looks kinda weird in January, in a Godzilla El Nino year :
Close up of ULA..
Quoting 8. Jedkins01:



Yeah that was definitely a much later warning than usual given NWS policy, they would rather have someone even issue a borderline tornado warning than not. Something went wrong, but mistakes do happen to the best of us...

And while that was definitely a strong radar signature, I don't think it's the strongest. There have been over 300 tornadoes in Florida rated at EF2, and about 40 tornadoes of EF3 strength or stronger. But there have only been 2 or 3 tornadoes of EF4 strength, and none at EF5.

Surprisingly, the highest concentration of stronger tornadoes and tornadoes as a whole in Florida actually lies across the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando instead of north Florida like one might expect. It's somewhat known as the I-4 tornado alley to local meteorologists. The majority of EF3 or stronger tornadoes have occurred in that area, and the only EF4's in state history also occurred in that region.

It's worth noting that no EF3 tornadoes have been recorded in the Naples/Ft. Myers area in contrast, so this tornado may be the strongest on record in the Ft. Myers area, given it was rated on the upper most tier for an EF2.

There is an obvious gaping whole in terms of a lack of tornado reports in rural parts of Florida compared to the larger city areas, either rural Floridians don't report them, or thick forests and swamps make tornado reporting not so practical.


(From last blog)
The same thing happened here on December 24. We had two tornadoes in Barbour County with a pretty obvious signature for about 15 minutes before a warning was finally issued. Those tornadoes were finally surveyed on January 7, and both were rated at EF-0. We were lucky these weren't more intense tornadoes. We have a history of bad winter tornadoes, and these occured at 0341 and 0434, not the best time for people to get a warning, even if it was issued on a timely basis. I don't know why Birmingham was so slow in responding. They've had a terrible false alarm ratio, one of the worst in the country, so maybe they are trying to only issue warnings on obvious tornadoes, but these tornadoes both had obvious signatures. Maybe the meteorologist covering the Ft. Meyers area last night just doesn't have a lot of tornado experience given that Ft. Myers isn't exactly a tornado hotspot. One thing I've wondered about is if the NWS radars give out any kind of alarm when the radar shows a TVS, or does it all depend on who's staring at the radar at the time.
ASCAT just got 2 passes an hour apart..

It means the center pressure of this low in the Atlantic appears to be dropping, if I get the ASCAT readings right?
---

Very informative, especially regarding the social situation; bad news indeed :
South Africa: Drought leads to failed crops, water shortages ((amid heatwaves))
Link
Quoting 30. 999Ai2016:

It means the center pressure of this low in the Atlantic appears to be dropping, if I get the ASCAT readings right?

Looking over the scatterometer passes from the last 24hrs, pressure has dropped some where between 16 - 20mb.
33. vis0
Thank you Patrap ...oh wait its DR. Masters and Mr. Henson.

No matter how many times this is posted it is EYE OPENING to see this during the climatological dry month(s) of this area.
 Thank you to all that shared info on the historic weather event, that sadly will repeat more often over future generations.
WhyThisFloodIsImportant

and why Rep. Graves might be one of my new favorite people!

After the news conference, Graves said it's clear that weather conditions related to a strong El Nio, where warmer than normal water is found in the east and central Pacific Ocean near the equator, had caused a series of waves of heavy rain in the Midwest in December, which is producing the high river. But the reason the river is so high might also be linked to increased development in the upper Mississippi River basin, which limits storage of floodwaters, and may also be linked to climate change, Graves said.
Quoting 19. HurricaneFan:

If Alex forms this month, will it be the first time ever that named storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific formed in January?


Good question. Anyone?
36. vis0

Quoting 21. sar2401:

Just to clarify, the Bonnet Carre project consist of two parts, a weir structure and the spillway itself. That long (7,000 feet) concrete structure is the weir, and on top of that is the needle dam, a fairly rare type of dam. The "gates" are closed with the needles, the telephone pole like objects being lifted with the crane. There are 350 bays in the dam and about 7,000 needles. The weir is a lower concrete structure that acts as a dam when the river is below normal flows. As the flow increase, some water leaks through each bay, since the needles are not meant to be watertight.

Once the river gets near flood stage, the Corps makes a decision about how many bays to open out of the 350. I don't know how many will get pulled this time, but there were 330 bays opened in the flood of 2011, and I imagine it will be about the same this time. If the two cranes worked 24 hours a day, it would take about 36 hours to open all the bays and pull all the needles. They will probably do it over a matter of day to reduce pressure on the bay structure. The needles only lean against the bay structure, and are held in place by water pressure. There is an emergency procedure in the event of even worse flooding. There are cables strung behind all the needles, and the cables can be pulled by those same cranes. Each pull would knock about 20 needles out of the bay and send them downstream. In theory, they could open all the bays this way in three hours. Except for some some small scale dry season tests, this option has never been used, and I suspect it's doubtful if it will work as planned, considering the cable releases have been in place since 1931. In the event of some really catastrophic flooding, an emergency release would really be something to see given there will be the equivalent of 7,000 big telephone poles headed downstream in a short period of time. Those people hanging around at the edge of the flow in Figure 4 would be in a little trouble in that case.
1)  when needles are placed back in are people invited?

2) have their ever been a need to place the needles back in during a sudden rising flood surprise. EXAMPLE:: If more deluge like rain happens in 2-3 weeks and for some reason this spillways amount has to be lessened, can the needles go in while fast moving building waters are moving through?
Hmm... 8 minutes past 03Z and the advisory for Pali has not been issued yet.
Quoting 37. Bobbyweather:
Hmm... 8 minutes past 03Z and the advisory for Pali has not been issued yet.


Here is the discussion part, new advisory just out apparently.

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST SUN JAN 10 2016

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE COLD TOPS OVER PALI HAVE SHIFTED OFF
TO THE EAST...BUT THE CURVED BAND HAS WRAPPED FARTHER AROUND THE
CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES AT 10/2331 UTC AND 11/0149Z APPEAR TO SHOW
A PARTIAL EYEWALL ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB AND
2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THE RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES I HAVE
INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.

ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE
POSITIONS SHOW PALI MOVING VERY SLOWLY. PALI REMAINS IN AN EAST
NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE EQUATOR. TROPICAL CYCLONES
WITHIN TROUGHS LIKE THIS...WHICH IS MUCH LIKE A MONSOON
TROUGH...OFTEN MAKE SLOW LOOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH...AND PALI SEEMS TO
BE DOING THAT. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LOW SHEAR
ALONG THE TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CHANGING CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO
SHOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR. ALSO...IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THAT PALI WOULD REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO VERY LOW
LATITUDES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN BOOSTED A BIT SINCE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAINS PALI AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
96 HOURS...THEN WEAKENS IT TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE
EQUATOR.
Vis0- people can come and go whenever they want. The last time the spillway was used was 2011. So, there's never been any surprise rainfall that changed things. This is a rare event- YET- your questions are valid, and who knows? Times ( and climate ) they are a'changing.

(I hope to not ever have to learn of the answer to your second question)

The spillways are to save New Orleans, AND to keep the Mississippi River from changing course. So any reduction in flow during their ("their" meaning the Bonnet Carre or Morganza) use would only increase the danger to New Orleans.

AND- we need to control the flow of the river for the sake of commerce. I'm sure sar could give a quick rundown of the daily monetary value of the MR as a transportation resource.

Those Giant Tides Are Worse Than Ever and May Be Hint of What’s to Come

But the water is reaching farther into San Diego than ever before. In late November, the swells reached historic heights.

Local scientists say the king tides are getting more severe and causing flooding more often. It could be a harbinger of a much larger problem: rising sea levels due to climate change.

On their website, the California Ocean Protection Council reported that the tide stations monitored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including those off of San Diego, recorded the highest sea levels ever on Nov. 25. The information gathered by the local tide stations cataloged sea levels up to half a foot higher than predicted. Combined with the El Nino and the warm oceanic conditions, these record-breaking water levels resulted in the abnormally large king tide and the Midway district flooding.


Link
Mayday, mayday... It's losing its jellyfish look; what's happening to Pali?
Revealed: scientists warn climate changes means wild weather in Scotland is the 'new normal'

The record-breaking rainfall and devastating floods that have drenched Scotland over the last few weeks are the “new normal” – and they could force some communities to abandon built-up areas and move to higher ground.

Experts canvassed by the Sunday Herald warn that we will have to get used to more winters like this one, as climate pollution from vehicles and industry warms the globe and wreaks havoc with the weather. Without action to curb carbon emissions, they say, it is likely to get much worse.

“There is no natural weather any more,” declared Professor James Curran, the former chief executive of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and a leading climate expert. “The world is now warmer by one degree centigrade than it would be without climate change – so there is no weather anywhere, at any time, that isn’t man-made these days.”


Link
NAM 00z 12km run looks good for the DMV. Snow Tuesday evening into the early morning hours.

Considering Churchill’s future

The weak link today is the rail bed. It sits on discontinuous permafrost that is thawing due to climate change. Ironically, the same climate change opens the bay up for a longer shipping season.

However, if government money is to be allocated to make Churchill viable, a more comprehensive assessment of the overall situation is needed. Considering the rail line and port alone could lead to expensive and risky conclusions.


Link
---Sorry, bug---
Oh ok, must be a bug while you were editing it maybe .
South Africa: Drought Leads to Failed Crops, Water Shortages

SENEKAL, SOUTH AFRICA—

The main street of this dusty South African town is lined with empty buckets, marking each residents' place in line as they wait for their daily water ration to be brought in by unreliable trucks.

Keeping watch over her buckets, Pulaleng Chakela sleeps in a wheelbarrow on the side of the road to save her spot in the line. The 30-year-old wraps herself in a little blanket as temperatures drop overnight, and asks a male friend to sit nearby for safety.

"If I don't wait here all night, the water will be finished," she said.

A flatbed truck carrying three 5,000-liter tanks arrived midmorning when temperatures had already reached 40° C (104° F). Murmurs of relief are soon replaced by angry shouts as residents learn they have been further rationed from filling four buckets to just two. In the chaos, Chakela slips two extra buckets in the line. The situation is so unfair that she feels no guilt, she said.


Link
Quoting 45. 999Ai2016:



Hey, the link above leads to an article about the last Scottish river floods :-)

Its very interesting, though, and it's made it into my list of good articles about climate change.


Sorry, lot's of windows open try this , and I fixed the first one :

Link
Quoting 14. Gearsts:

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
One of the strongest westerly wind bursts on record just occurred- about = to 1997's record HT



To me, it's not a good news. El Nino only means bad things for the Caribbean.

The dry season is here, and the rain has somewhat disappeared lol... the island is drying fast. Still hoping for a wet 2016 from April to December... but... Well, we will see.

Anyway, more St Barts weather pictures from this month have been posted here just in case somebody wants to see them.

Good night all.
More St Barts weather pictures from this month have been posted here. Things are drying fast again. El Nino... again and again...
--oops, sorry, bug--
Quoting 36. vis0:


1)  when needles are placed back in are people invited?

2) have their ever been a need to place the needles back in during a sudden rising flood surprise. EXAMPLE:: If more deluge like rain happens in 2-3 weeks and for some reason this spillways amount has to be lessened, can the needles go in while fast moving building waters are moving through?

To your first question, people can go to the spillway viewing area any time they want. I don't know that putting a bunch of telephone poles back in place would be as interesting as taking them out.

If there was a sudden deluge, they wouldn't want to put the needles back in place, even if they could. The whole idea is to divert water from the Mississippi into the spillway and take it to Lake Pontchartrain, which can handle an almost unlimited amount of water, since it drains into the Gulf. They'd only put them back when the river level dropped to the top level of the weir. If the diversion wasn't enough to keep the water in the river at New Orleans at or below flood stage, the city is toast.
South Africa: Drought Leads to Failed Crops, Water Shortages

SENEKAL, SOUTH AFRICA—

The main street of this dusty South African town is lined with empty buckets, marking each residents' place in line as they wait for their daily water ration to be brought in by unreliable trucks.

Keeping watch over her buckets, Pulaleng Chakela sleeps in a wheelbarrow on the side of the road to save her spot in the line. The 30-year-old wraps herself in a little blanket as temperatures drop overnight, and asks a male friend to sit nearby for safety.

"If I don't wait here all night, the water will be finished," she said.

A flatbed truck carrying three 5,000-liter tanks arrived midmorning when temperatures had already reached 40° C (104° F). Murmurs of relief are soon replaced by angry shouts as residents learn they have been further rationed from filling four buckets to just two. In the chaos, Chakela slips two extra buckets in the line. The situation is so unfair that she feels no guilt, she said.


Link
Quoting 39. aquak9:

Vis0- people can come and go whenever they want. The last time the spillway was used was 2011. So, there's never been any surprise rainfall that changed things. This is a rare event- YET- your questions are valid, and who knows? Times ( and climate ) they are a'changing.

(I hope to not ever have to learn of the answer to your second question)

The spillways are to save New Orleans, AND to keep the Mississippi River from changing course. So any reduction in flow during their ("their" meaning the Bonnet Carre or Morganza) use would only increase the danger to New Orleans.

AND- we need to control the flow of the river for the sake of commerce. I'm sure sar could give a quick rundown of the daily monetary value of the MR as a transportation resource.
No idea about the value of river traffic on the MIssissippi, except that it's a lot. I only know about the needle dam because it was one of the projects we had to study in my dam safety class. It's really a fascinating piece of engineering, especially since the basic engineering was all done in the 1920's. High strength concrete wasn't common then, and they had to do a lot of research to come up with the type of batch plants they'd need and testing of each pour to make sure the concrete was up to snuff. It's kind of amazing when you consider the number of dam projects constructed in the 1930's, when the closest thing to a computer was a slide rule.
Quoting 40. RobertWC:


Those Giant Tides Are Worse Than Ever and May Be Hint of What’s to Come

But the water is reaching farther into San Diego than ever before. In late November, the swells reached historic heights.

Local scientists say the king tides are getting more severe and causing flooding more often. It could be a harbinger of a much larger problem: rising sea levels due to climate change.

On their website, the California Ocean Protection Council reported that the tide stations monitored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including those off of San Diego, recorded the highest sea levels ever on Nov. 25. The information gathered by the local tide stations cataloged sea levels up to half a foot higher than predicted. Combined with the El Nino and the warm oceanic conditions, these record-breaking water levels resulted in the abnormally large king tide and the Midway district flooding.




Link
Muh oh. Looks like the usual Sunday night nothing will post for a long time rule is now in effect....
Stormy Times: Climate Change as Predicted

In June 2008 the Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) produced a 118 page report entitled “Ireland in a Warmer World: Scientific Predictions of the Irish Climate in the Twenty-First Century” (supported and co-funded by Environmental Protection Agency, Sustainable Energy Ireland and the Higher Education Authority) which forecast “an increase in the frequency of very intense cyclones, and also increases in the extreme values of wind and precipitation associated with them. This implies an increased risk of storm damage and flooding in vulnerable Irish coastal areas.” The report also suggested that the “[d]emand for heating energy is likely to reduce significantly as the climate warms.”

Now in 2016, we are already seeing these predictions come true. There have been six storms already since the beginning of winter and a weather station in Donegal recorded its wettest day for any month since 1885 and its highest December temperature in 60 years.


Link
Quoting 49. CaribBoy:



To me, it's not a good news. El Nino only means bad things for the Caribbean.

The dry season is here, and the rain has somewhat disappeared lol... the island is drying fast. Still hoping for a wet 2016 from April to December... but... Well, we will see.

Anyway, more St Barts weather pictures from this month have been posted here just in case somebody wants to see them.

Good night all.
I know is bad news, that's why i posted this. I think El nino will decline but it will take longer unless we see a full reverse of the trades soon. Also this El nino didn't build up a lot of cold water like the 97 super El nino. This El nino is warm everywhere and very different to other strong el nino events.
I say this IMO

the E Half of the US is gonna get an Arctic blast for the rest of Jan
We may very well have a Jan tropical system in the Atlantic and it would be bloody exciting to track
I say EL Nino is done (done rising) and now declining with it flaming out yeah busting a few really high and hot flames but overall dying we should see neutral ENSO conditions by Spring and even possibly La Niña conditions as we go through the '16 hurricane season and into '16-'17 winter season

See ya'll at the next Atlantic TWO update
Quoting 39. aquak9:

Vis0- people can come and go whenever they want. The last time the spillway was used was 2011. So, there's never been any surprise rainfall that changed things. This is a rare event- YET- your questions are valid, and who knows? Times ( and climate ) they are a'changing.

(I hope to not ever have to learn of the answer to your second question)

The spillways are to save New Orleans, AND to keep the Mississippi River from changing course. So any reduction in flow during their ("their" meaning the Bonnet Carre or Morganza) use would only increase the danger to New Orleans.

AND- we need to control the flow of the river for the sake of commerce. I'm sure sar could give a quick rundown of the daily monetary value of the MR as a transportation resource.


To quote my mother, one day the Mighty Mississippi shall take back what is hers and change her course. Now, whether or not we can keep her steady until sea level forces our hand...that remains to be seen.

Imagine a massive flood coming down, and a hurricane pushing up into NOLA. With SLR. *shivers*
At around 0600 UTC, 01/11, winds are seriously picking up all across Western Europe's Atlantic coast, as you can see looking at those weather reports (Link, in French unfortunately), with some gusts of up to 80-90 kilometers per hour already in many places, reaching more than 110 kilometers per hour in elevated locations, or in exposed places along the coast. A rather powerful low is located near the northern tip of Scotland, spinning very unstable air masses around it. Scattered to occasionally heavy rain is falling or expected to fall in the next hours almost everywhere along the west-oriented coasts, sometimes accompanied by strong wind gusts, from Scotland to Italy.

This colorized infrared image shows the storm pushing warm air coming from the Med. sea and Atl. ocean against cold air entrenched in North-Eastern Europe.

And this is Climate Reanalyzer, with a view of today's projected wind speeds by the GFS models.


Temps will, of course, stay above average in the next 4-5 days for most countries in Western Europe.
Storms that intense aren't uncommon in winter on Europe's coasts, but the magnitude and duration of the high temps anomalies this winter are.

(This is an excerpt from my new blog entry, "Winter Storms/Coastal Erosion in Europe")

WU blog Link
Image of Pali at 0530 UTC, with the center clearly visible:

Deep convection in Pali has decreased compared to 6 hours ago, but recently has increased closer to the center, which has become relatively distinct. Also the following image shows that the maximum winds are increasing:
CP, 01, 2016011106, , BEST, 0, 79N, 1735W, 55, 990, TS,
The forecasters at CPHC are having a hard time predicting the intensity of Pali; it has regained its maximum intensity of 55 knots according to the above ATCF data, contrary to the prediction that Pali would slowly weaken. Here is the forecast the CPHC made approx. 24 hours ago:
24H 11/0600Z 7.9N 174.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
It's probably also because there are a lot of complex interactions going on between Ula, a new emerging low south of Pali and Pali itself.
Global benchmark Brent was down 89 cents, almost over 2.6 percent, to $32.66 per barrel at 0319 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down about 2.3 percent to $32.39.

The tar sands is about to fire everyone on their payroll.
UKMET model predicts Pali to move into the Southern Hemisphere by the 14th:
Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39NLon: 84.35W

Fair

38F

3C
Humidity 79%
Wind Speed NW 6 mph
Barometer 30.19 in (1022.2 mb)
Dewpoint 32F (0C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 33F (1C)
Last update 11 Jan 1:53 am EST


It's a crisp cold night here in north FL, temps expected to drop below freezing in a few hours.
The storm looks like it has sucked in too much dry air to intensify further, until now, with the convection not looking as impressive as it did around 6-8 hours ago.

Link

Overall nearby conditions look still ok for some re-intensification to occur, though.
70. vis0
Sports related question on freak'n flip catch (incls. VID) at mu zilly blog pg.6 cmmnt#266 (if you have an answer post it there)
Figured its a slow weather nite so posted the link here...watch some natural disaster happens after i post that its quiet.

WEATHER:: Cooling down here in NYc's Rose Hill (south of Murry Hill, SW of Kips Bay) birds are finally heading southward. Last few month i saw birds flying in the arrow pattern, breaking from the pattern.  Last 2 days the birds are heading southward/ SSW in well organized arrowheads patterns.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016


ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-016>019-026-027-GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161-
111430-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.A.0004.160112T0500Z-160112T1400Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160111T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-NORTH WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-GADSDEN-
LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...C OWARTS...WEBB...
COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON...
BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...
GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...
LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...
PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...
CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON ...LEARY...
DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVEST ER...ASHBURN...
TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLA KELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE.. .ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
235 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 /135 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/
THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED
A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

* MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...27 TO 32 DEGREES.

* DURATION...UP TO 8 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WITH THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING. DECREASING
DURATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ABOUT A TWO HOUR DURATION IN
TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA. AROUND A FOUR HOUR DURATION OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE FREEZE WATCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY DAMAGE SOME UNPROTECTED...
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Very interesting about the methods of avoiding flooding on the Mississippi.

Meanwhile here is a combined wind and tepm chart for western Europe right now.
The gales are very bad coming directly into the western coast of France and probably damage can be expected.
Meanwhile the temps over the Alps area north of Italy can be seen to be about 12/C, so plenty of melting going on there with any ice or snow around.

Link

Howling gales here in southern Spain as well but very little or no rain.
The Atlantic storm of the week may turn out to be another eye opener for this strange winter so far.
73. vis0

Quoting 53. sar2401:

To your first question, people can go to the spillway viewing area any time they want. I don't know that putting a bunch of telephone poles back in place would be as interesting as taking them out.

If there was a sudden deluge, they wouldn't want to put the needles back in place, even if they could. The whole idea is to divert water from the Mississippi into the spillway and take it to Lake Pontchartrain, which can handle an almost unlimited amount of water, since it drains into the Gulf. They'd only put them back when the river level dropped to the top level of the weir. If the diversion wasn't enough to keep the water in the river at New Orleans at or below flood stage, the city is toast.
Was thinking as to what Astrometeor stated in this blog pg2 @#61 and if the water upstream gained some type of dangerous to Lake Pontchartrain waste, could those needles be placed back in. Then i left the latter question out 'cause the needles allow some flow so unless they could fully stop the flood contaminated waters by sealing the needles (with some sort of cushion thick pressure molding rubber on the high pressure side) then anything that is liquid will flow between the needles.

i say " high pressure side" in case a strong CONTINUOUS surge from a stationary or slow moving TS / Hurricane was heading towards the needles, could some sort of cushion thick pressure molding rubber with a u-wave see-saw shape towards the direction of the storm surge to deflect in turn stop the surge from heading upstream by using the surges first waves to go back and undercut any next waves. 
Similar to the idea i posted here as to post-SANDY type surge or Tsunami wave (still is ion a 1999 WxBabes Hosted by Tripod website) where its not the strength of the object placed in front of those waves but that the u-wave curved  plastic / rubber is shaped in such a manner that it uses the oceans surge / waves against the oceans surge / waves. Corkscrew design to dissipate and the see-saw like wall where one side is closer to the surge / wave and when the surge / wave  forces the closer side of the see-saw (teeter-totter to sar2401)to move  the far side flings that force via the water it pushes towards the surge in a cross pattern to lower the surges momentum....yes Taz call it the "sea-saw" cause it cuts sea waves like a saw. This can also be done underwater but with ballast type multi-angled (obtuse to acute and acute to obtuse design) that creates so much under choas that the straight stronger flow looses its momentum.

Though was replied to here by WxU members that it was an idea to won;t work, 2 European companies asked to use the idea in a study (can't remember their names, i said take it, if it works share it with all people), i still think if another Katrina hits the Northern Gulf at least the surge can be lowered, but then again i'm loco.
From the JTWC's website ((I edited it for the sake of brevity, go to the website to get the full text)):

1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (PALI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE - WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 7.9N 173.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 8.1N 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 8.0N 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
(...)
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 173.3W. TROPICAL STORM 01C (PALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 20 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.//
Link
75. vis0
RIP Mr. Bowie thanks for the creative tunes
David Bowie : Space Oddity Lyrics

Ground Control to Major Tom
Ground Control to Major Tom

Take your protein pills and put your helmet on
Ground Control to Major Tom (Ten, Nine, Eight, Seven, Six)
Commencing countdown, engines on (Five, Four, Three)
Check ignition and may God's love be with you (Two, One, Liftoff)

This is Ground Control to Major Tom
You've really made the grade
And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear
Now it's time to leave the capsule if you dare

This is Major Tom to Ground Control
I'm stepping through the door
And I'm floating in the most peculiar way
And the stars look very different today

For here am I sitting in my tin can
Far above the world
Planet Earth is blue
And there's nothing I can do

Though I'm past one hundred thousand miles
I'm feeling very still
And I think my spaceship knows which way to go
Tell my wife I love her very much, she knows

Ground Control to Major Tom
Your circuit's dead, there's something wrong

Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you hear me, Major Tom?

Can you hear And I'm floating around my tin can
Far above the Moon
Planet Earth is blue
And there's nothing I can do.

Songwriter: DAVID BOWIE
Spock passed last year and now Ziggy Stardust.

Massive sadness. Rest in peace. David Bowie.

Pali now looks like a healthy tropical cyclone. All it needs is an eye.
26.2F on da Bayou Grande!! Far and away the coldest this season!
Edit: Update 6:10 am Central 25.9F on my remote sensor!

Edit: 6:48 am 25.0F!
Quoting 77. PensacolaDoug:

Spock passed last year and now Ziggy Stardust.

Massive sadness. Rest in peace. David Bowie.


I heard that Ashley Olsen was found dead last night too
Quoting 80. wunderkidcayman:



I heard that Ashley Olsen was found dead last night too
Ashley Olsen, a Florida woman who worked in the art world, was found strangled in her apartment in the Italian city of Florence, Italian police said Sunday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaOC9danxNo
From Mr. Henson's very nice account of the spillway opening, it appears USACE got with the program and supplied fall protection for the folks working on the BC Spillway.

From 2011:



2016-With Personnel cart, anchored protection, retrieval booms, and harness.


Image Credit: Bob Henson
Not one of the twins?
Quoting 84. PensacolaDoug:

Not one of the twins?
no
interesting times in the central pac. north and south.
Strongest WWB on record just occurred per Eric Blake.

Folks in FL get ready for a Severe weather event Thursday Night into Friday. Heavy rains with totals in the 3" to 4" range across C FL. There also could be tornadoes given this wind field beginning depicted on both the Euro & GFS. Even if there aren't many tornadoes winds will be strong pretty much everywhere maybe in excess of 50mph. So to those saying where's El-Nino here in FL well I hope this passed weekend was a wake up call when a EF 2 tornado hit Cape Coral.

I know this is @ 850mb but even surface winds are expected to exceed 50mph in some cases. Looking like an extreme event on the way.



This upcoming weather event is being aided by a extremely powerful jet core as a response to this record breaking El-Nino.



Look @ the wording used of by the NWS in Melbourne this morning. Guys get ready!

THU-FRI...BY EARLY THU AN APPROACHING WAVE OVER THE GULF COUPLED
WITH STRONG JET MAXIMA IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX DURING THU.
00Z GFS
AND EC GUID INDICATES AN APCHG SFC LOW OF VARYING INTENSITY
NEARING CENTRAL TO N FL EARLY FRI MORNING WITH AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN LOCAL WIND FIELDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EITHER SOLN
WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO A SPECIFIC WINDOW OF TIME.
THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY FORECASTS.
FRI...GULF SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE GENERAL AREA BY EVENING WITH A
LOWERING OF PCPN COVERAGE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO START THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT LOST LOW COOLDOWN IS NOT INDICATED ATTM.
still a few weeks away from February scott. will the lack of heat and instability keeps Thurs. & Frid. storms in check?
Quoting 91. islander101010:

still a few weeks away from February scott. will the lack of heat and instability keeps Thurs. & Frid. storms in check?


That's the question I am trying to figure out too but either way winds will be very strong even outside of thunderstorms almost like a Tropical Storm coming thru. Rainfall amounts could reach 4" in some areas on top of the rain we've already seen this month could yield some flooding issues.
Quoting 91. islander101010:

still a few weeks away from February scott. will the lack of heat and instability keeps Thurs. & Frid. storms in check?


Is there something significant about the calendar turning to February when it comes to severe weather in FL?
Thanks for the update guys!
februarys sun is alittle stronger . this strong el nino could mean business for central florida. scott was all over this threat six months ago.
And the memory on my pc just died. Two sticks of 4gb to the garbage bin.
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:

Strongest WWB on record just occurred per Eric Blake.


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 16h16 hours ago
One of the strongest westerly wind bursts on record just occurred- about = to 1997's record H
Ugh
--- TC Pali forecast/discussion (advisory 16) copy-paste. I deleted it myself because it was too old (and also too long). Waiting for next update soon.
Quoting 80. wunderkidcayman:



I heard that Ashley Olsen was found dead last night too


I heard this too, found dead in Italy.

edit: googled it to cite source, not the same as one of the Olsen twins
101. JRRP




Mornin' blog viewers.. Got our first ice for this winter hear on the NW Florida gulf coast.. got down to 30 for a good bit and the ice build up on the vehicle was scrapable (why is scrapable not in the dictionary?!). Happy Monday y'all!
Quoting 52. Gearsts:




Where is Scott?
Quoting 103. CaribBoy:



Where is Scott?
perfect hurricane season for the Atlantic?
Some wind gusts speeds recorded in France today (so far):
Source (fr) : Link

This morning :
- 131 km/h - 81 mph in Biscarosse, French Atlantic Coast.
- 143 km/h - 88 mph in Cap Ferret, French Atlantic coast.

This afternoon :

- 131 km/h - 81 mph recorded in Ile de Groix, an island close to the French Atlantic Coast.
- 133 km/h - 82 mph at Mount Aigual, alt. 1567m/5140ft, near the Mediterranean Coast, France.
- 162 km/h - 100 mph at Mount Aiguille du Midi, alt. 3825 m/12550ft, Near Mont Blanc, in the French Alps.

- Corsica Island, in the Mediterranean Sea in the South-East of France, has also reported wind gusts in excess of 120 km/h at several weather stations, as was expected today.

--- From my current blog entry, "Winter Storms/Coastal Erosion in Europe" :
WU blog Link ---
Used to work for a company that designed such custom, fall-prevention systems. This looks like our competitor's product. Formidable competitor.

Quoting 83. beell:

From Mr. Henson's very nice account of the spillway opening, it appears USACE got with the program and supplied fall protection for the folks working on the BC Spillway.

From 2011:



2016-With Personnel cart, anchored protection, retrieval booms, and harness.


Image Credit: Bob Henson
Quoting 61. Astrometeor:



To quote my mother, one day the Mighty Mississippi shall take back what is hers and change her course. Now, whether or not we can keep her steady until sea level forces our hand...that remains to be seen.

Imagine a massive flood coming down, and a hurricane pushing up into NOLA. With SLR. *shivers*

Astro, you are young enough that you may just see that in 50 or so years.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALI ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
CP012016
500 AM HST MON JAN 11 2016

...PALI MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FAR SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 172.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 1345 MI...2160 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 172.9 WEST. PALI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.

Also, from the Discussion part, same advisory (number 17):

SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE LATEST IVCN STILL SUGGESTS THAT PALI MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... SO WE HAVE KEPT THIS TREND IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. AFTER THAT... THE LATEST FORECAST WEAKENS PALI SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BY 48 HOURS. THE DAYS 4 AND 5 FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW SINCE WE ARE NOT SENDING PALI AS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR AS EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED.
Quoting 105. 999Ai2016:

Some wind gusts speeds recorded in France today (so far):
Source (fr) : Link

This morning :
- 131 km/h - 81 mph in Biscarosse, French Atlantic Coast.
- 143 km/h - 88 mph in Cap Ferret, French Atlantic coast.

This afternoon :

- 131 km/h - 81 mph recorded in Ile de Groix, an island close to the French Atlantic Coast.
- 133 km/h - 82 mph at Mount Aigual, alt. 1567m/5140ft, near the Mediterranean Coast, France.
- 162 km/h - 100 mph at Mount Aiguille du Midi, alt. 3825 m/12550ft, Near Mont Blanc, in the French Alps.

- Corsica Island, in the Mediterranean Sea in the South-East of France, has also reported wind gusts in excess of 120 km/h at several weather stations, as was expected today.

--- From my current blog entry, "Winter Storms/Coastal Erosion in Europe" :
WU blog Link ---

Interesting picture of Soulac and how well they prepared for climate change...
Squirrels are fat because Northern Hemisphere weather is warm
Last updated 13:54, January 11 2016
Squirrels in the Northern Hemisphere are carrying more junk in their trunks this year, after a mild winter led to an abundance of food befitting the holiday season.
Social media users have engaged in gentle fat-shaming of the rodents, after residents of Europe and North American noticed their furry friends were rocking juicier booties.
Ironically named David Sugarman, a senior researcher at the Ontario Science Centre, told Metro Toronto a warm November meant there were more nuts and seeds for squirrels to gorge on, in anticipation of a cold snap that never came. ...



@DanaMefferd: One thing I do love about winter is seeing all the fat squirrels
9:51 PM - 16 Dec 2015

More fat squirrels see link above. Umm, I wonder how/if they could still manage to climb the trees :-)

BTW animals: this week thousands of migratory birds (esp. cranes) are on the move over Germany. People are wondering whether they are already back or haven't gone yet. The latter is true. It's only now as a deep freeze set in in northeastern Europe/Germany (this cold air is expected to flood most of Europe later this week) that the birds felt convinced to start their travel to the south.
i remember that outbreak of tornados that Feb. night in central florida really well. the line of thunderstorm roared through e cen florida luckily lost alittle of its vigor nevertheless it had the house shaking much like a hurricane. lightning roaring thunder and heavy wind. at least an hour long. woke up the next morning to news of the terrible twisters near Deland. we were lucky.
Quoting 102. JNFlori30A:

Mornin' blog viewers.. Got our first ice for this winter hear on the NW Florida gulf coast.. got down to 30 for a good bit and the ice build up on the vehicle was scrapable (why is scrapable not in the dictionary?!). Happy Monday y'all!



Yikes, I thought my 52 degrees was cold this morning.
If ya want a great bowl of Gumbo while in town Bob Henson, feel free to wu mail me here today.

Saw the news this morning and thought it was some sicko trying to make another celebrity death hoax again but its true :(.David Bowie has now passed.People who didn't grow up in the 70's and 80's even the 90's just won't understand.R.I.P to a legend (please don't take down my post for not "staying on topic")
Quoting 114. Patrap:

If ya want a great bowl of Gumbo while in town Bob Henson, feel free to wu mail me here today.


Wut about us Pat?..u bettah WU sum dat Gumbo to da rest of us ..Sounds delicous...:)...Will it have the real Andouille Snausage.?
Weather related comment; saw David Bowie at the Orange Bowl in Miami around 1984 (Great show in support of the "Let's Dance" album) and he was dressed in a White Suit with the very 80's perfectly dyed Blonde Top (the Thin White Duke period).

If memory serves me correct, it was party cloudy that evening and about 78..............................


Big blob of convection over drought stricken South Africa:

Rain returns to South Africa
11.1.2016 11:31 am
The South African Weather Services has issued a warning for severe thunderstorms over the eastern parts of North West and the Free State on Monday morning.
Speaking to The Citizen, forecaster Mbhavi Maliage, said the rainfall that has been experienced over several parts of the country that were gripped by a heatwave recently, is expected to continue for the rest of this week. ....


South Africa Heat Wave Claims 11 Lives, Say Officials
By The Associated Press, JOHANNESBURG Jan 10, 2016, 11:33 AM ET

South Africa May Need About $1.2 Billion to Import Corn Needed
Tshepiso Mokhema, January 11, 2016. 4:47 PM CET
South Africa, the continent's largest producer of corn, may have to pay as much as $1.2 billion for imports of the grain this season as an El Nino-induced drought damages crops in the nation's main producing areas. ...
The Mississippi River flow has moved NORTH at New Orleans 2 times in my life.

Once during Betsy in 65, and again During K in 05.

In 1965 Betsy sunk a fully loaded Chlorine Barge that was recovered and drained under very stressful conditions.

Among numerous barges, tugboats and other vessels lost or sunk in the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, by the destructive force of Hurricane Betsy, September 10, 1965, was the Barge, MTC-602, loaded with 600 tons of liquid chlorine. The United States spent almost one million dollars to locate and mark and then to raise the sunken barge and dispose of the dangerous liquid chlorine and the hulk.

This was clipped from the film, A Hurricane Called Betsy, produced after the hurricane by the Department of Defenses Office of Civil Defense. The entire film is available on the Internet Archive.






Quoting 116. hydrus:

Wut about us Pat?..u bettah WU sum dat Gumbo to da rest of us ..Sounds delicous...:)...Will it have the real Andouille Snausage.?



My seafood one has no andouille, but my chicken and andouille is to cry for. Just show up between now and Feb 9th, Fat Tuesday(Mardi Gras day) and one can have both here likely.
Current look for Conus, relative jet position, and forecast highs for today:





Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Quoting 120. Patrap:




My seafood one has no andouille, but my chicken and andouille is to cry for. Just show up between now and Feb 9th, Fat Tuesday(Mardi Gras day) and one can have both here likely.
Sounds heavenly...My uncle was from N.O. , and produced some of the finest seafood gumbo..He was known for cooking giant pots on board ship, and used whole vadalia onions to stew with..This was many years ago.
Quoting 102. JNFlori30A:

Mornin' blog viewers.. Got our first ice for this winter hear on the NW Florida gulf coast.. got down to 30 for a good bit and the ice build up on the vehicle was scrapable (why is scrapable not in the dictionary?!). Happy Monday y'all!

Pretty chilly up this way as well. The winds went calm about midnight and temperatures dropped like a rock, from 42 to 24 at 0630. It's only up to 44 now. We were lucky there wasn't extensive snow cover to our north or we would have seen widespread temperatures in the teens. Another shot of cold air gets here Wednesday although we should start getting back to normal by Friday. It's actually kind of refreshing to work outdoors again without sweating constantly.
Quoting 110. barbamz:

Squirrels are fat because Northern Hemisphere weather is warm
Last updated 13:54, January 11 2016
Squirrels in the Northern Hemisphere are carrying more junk in their trunks this year, after a mild winter led to an abundance of food befitting the holiday season.
Social media users have engaged in gentle fat-shaming of the rodents, after residents of Europe and North American noticed their furry friends were rocking juicier booties.
Ironically named David Sugarman, a senior researcher at the Ontario Science Centre, told Metro Toronto a warm November meant there were more nuts and seeds for squirrels to gorge on, in anticipation of a cold snap that never came. ...



@DanaMefferd: One thing I do love about winter is seeing all the fat squirrels
9:51 PM - 16 Dec 2015

More fat squirrels see link above. Umm, I wonder how/if they could still manage to climb the trees :-)

BTW animals: this week thousands of migratory birds (esp. cranes) are on the move over Germany. People are wondering whether they are already back or haven't gone yet. The latter is true. It's only now as a deep freeze set in in northeastern Europe/Germany (this cold air is expected to flood most of Europe later this week) that the birds felt convinced to start their travel to the south.
My squirrels are pretty chunky too, but they are still running around the yard picking up what they can find. Their tree climbing ability doesn't seem to have been affected by carrying around the extra baggage. They seem to be having more fights than usual judging by their raucous chattering at each other.

I don't know how birds decide to migrate. I assume it does have something to do with the local weather. There was a column in my local paper from some local birdwatchers bemoaning the fact that our usual northern visitors hadn't arrived yet. This area seems to be a migratory bird watching hotspot. I guess part of it is because of our huge lake, but I think the other part is this nearly as far south as birds have to go to escape constant cold and snow cover. As our climate continues to warm, I'll bet it will affect the timing and and habits of birds migrating. Makes me wonder how many other things will be affected that we don't normally think much about.
Information on the Cape Coral Fl. , EF2 Tornado.

NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 01/09/16 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...SATURDAY AFTERNOON STARTED OUT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE OF MOBILE ALABAMA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FORT MYERS AREA WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE
AIR THAT INTERACTED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
BROUGHT THE STORMS IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.CAPE CORAL TORNADO...

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 132 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 182 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 3

START DATE: JAN 9 2016
START TIME: 645 PM EST
START LOCATION: 12 WSW FORT MYERS / LEE COUNTY / FL
START LAT/LON: 26.570 / -82.037
END DATE: JAN 9 2016
END TIME: 652 PM EST
END LOCATION: 8 WSW FORT MYERS / LEE COUNTY / FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.575 / -81.983

THERE WAS DAMAGE TO 178 STRUCTURES. ONE HOME WAS DESTROYED...
14 HAD MAJOR DAMAGE...AND 163 HOMES HAD MINOR DAMAGE. REPORTS
OF OVER 100 POWER POLES DOWN.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

This morning at the doctor I spoke with his assistant about the tornado. He lives on the street that was affected by the tornado and said it was a crazy event. He said it went from heavy rain, to hail, then the wind started blowing really hard. He knew something wasn't right when he could hear objects crashing into the side of their house. Luckily, his home only experienced minor damage.
Quoting 112. islander101010:

i remember that outbreak of tornados that Feb. night in central florida really well. the line of thunderstorm roared through e cen florida luckily lost alittle of its vigor nevertheless it had the house shaking much like a hurricane. lightning roaring thunder and heavy wind. at least an hour long. woke up the next morning to news of the terrible twisters near Deland. we were lucky.


Remember that night well. It was warm and windy so me and the Missus went outside to watch the distant lightning from a squall line move down from the north. All the tornadoes missed us as we are about 90 miles north of Orlando. Saw the news the next morning how the tornadoes killed around 40 people in the Orlando area.
Quoting 106. HaoleboySurfEC:

Used to work for a company that designed such custom, fall-prevention systems. This looks like our competitor's product. Formidable competitor.


Maybe they had a little visit from the friendly boys at OSHA. It looks like they even added some safety rails and platforms to the crane. I remember seeing the 2011 pictures and thinking there's no way I'd be the guy standing on that girder with no fall protection while the crane was swinging telephone poles around. I'd bet the work is being done by contractors since the feds are pretty much immune from OSHA oversight.
128. vis0

first link was a weird pg, only had this::
From "BABW" webpg http://www.babwnews.com/2016/01/scientists-stunne d-by-mysterious-lhc-collision/

other headlines[you search for links, too busy to find tri-lionks as i prefer to have 3 links per story with diff QUALITY opinons, TOO BUSY? going food shopping for neighbors]::
[zilly but...}Officials baffled by bizarre mountain lion deformity January 11, 2016 (vis0 sez::maybe nature is fixing [mutating] animals to live in high sea levels, thus mouth on head acts like snorkel, [zilly but...}

Melting ice is revealing artifacts from 1871 whaling disaster January 11, 2016
Huge tornado wreaks havoc in small Florida town January 10, 2016
The WHO has been stockpiling vaccines for this deadly disease January 10, 2016

Watch what happens when a black hole has eaten its fill January 10, 2016
“Time is running out” for ESA’s Philae comet lander January 10, 2016

Copyright © 2016 Jones Kilmartin Group, LLC · Metro Pro Theme On Genesis Framework · WordPress
============here a more complete story at the above "dark" page (no dark page WAS NOT dark matter)

same collider story other site
http://news.nd.edu/news/63622-physicists-offer-th eories-to-explain-mysterious-collision-at-large-ha dron-collider/
129. MahFL
Quoting 124. sar2401:

I don't know how birds decide to migrate.


Birds fly north in the spring because new food supplies appear in the warming landscape. In the winter as the snow and cold invades they head back south ( this can be delayed if it remains warm ). If birds are seen to be flying south early it's usually the sign, but not always, of a harsh winter, conversely if they are late flying south a mild winter.
Quoting 117. weathermanwannabe:

Weather related comment; saw David Bowie at the Orange Bowl in Miami around 1984 (Great show in support of the "Let's Dance" album) and he was dressed in a White Suit with the very 80's perfectly dyed Blonde Top (the Thin White Duke period).

If memory serves me correct, it was party cloudy that evening and about 78..............................
I've always felt some affinity for Bowie due to both of us having an almost identical eye injury. Mine was from my six year old friend slugging me in the eye during a fight over a model airplane. The doctors thought I might lose the sight in my left eye but I luckily ended up with just a permanently dilated pupil and lousy depth perception, much like Bowie. It's bad enough that I have to squint only using my right eye to estimate things like distance to a storm. Using both eyes, it looks like a storm is further away than it really is. I didn't even realize how bad it was until I was out storm spotting with a partner. He was yelling about how close a wall cloud was when I thought we were still a safe distance away. Looking at it later on radar, he was right. It was then I decided that becoming a Skywarn net controller and just talking on the radio was a safer activity for me than being out in the field. I also have to wear a medicalert bracelet about my blown pupil since that can be a sign of brain injury, and I'd like to avoid an unnecessary craniotomy Just because I was unconscious after an accident.
SkyCraper cleaners along side of Chase Tower in Houston. Rescue underway.

Live coverage

Link
They're safe they got em in thru the window
Quoting 129. MahFL:



Birds fly north in the spring because new food supplies appear in the warming landscape. In the winter as the snow and cold invades they head back south ( this can be delayed if it remains warm ). If birds are seen to be flying south early it's usually the sign, but not always, of a harsh winter, conversely if they are late flying south a mild winter.


I used to be able to predict the on set of the rainy season by the departure date of the Purple Martins from our bird house. I could also predict the length of Winter by the arrival date of the Purple Martin Scouts to the house, which can range from as early as January to as late as sometime in March.
Quoting 102. JNFlori30A:

Mornin' blog viewers.. Got our first ice for this winter hear on the NW Florida gulf coast.. got down to 30 for a good bit and the ice build up on the vehicle was scrapable (why is scrapable not in the dictionary?!). Happy Monday y'all!

"Scrapeable" is what is should be; "scrapable" should be a different word. Neither is in the dictionary because you are changing our language right before our very eyes .... lol .... It's one of the neatest things about English, imo, this ability to modify the language to suit our needs.
Very sad news out of the UK last night .. One of the great rock artist of the last forty years gone but will never be forgotten !!!!!


David Bowie Rest in Peace .. THANK YOU FOR THE MUSIC !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 113. Sfloridacat5:



Yikes, I thought my 52 degrees was cold this morning.


25 with wind this morning in Maryland after my gripe of 60 and humid yesterday morning. Just above protection thresholds for my citrus but tuesday night.. no question it has to come in. My biggest tree
is five feet high and weighs about fifty pounds.

No frost scraping.. this air is too dry.
From Chris Hadfield:

Ashes to ashes, dust to stardust. Your brilliance inspired us all. Goodbye Starman.



Quoting 73. vis0:


Was thinking as to what Astrometeor stated in this blog pg2 @#61 and if the water upstream gained some type of dangerous to Lake Pontchartrain waste, could those needles be placed back in. Then i left the latter question out 'cause the needles allow some flow so unless they could fully stop the flood contaminated waters by sealing the needles (with some sort of cushion thick pressure molding rubber on the high pressure side) then anything that is liquid will flow between the needles.

i say " high pressure side" in case a strong CONTINUOUS surge from a stationary or slow moving TS / Hurricane was heading towards the needles, could some sort of cushion thick pressure molding rubber with a u-wave see-saw shape towards the direction of the storm surge to deflect in turn stop the surge from heading upstream by using the surges first waves to go back and undercut any next waves. 
Similar to the idea i posted here as to post-SANDY type surge or Tsunami wave (still is ion a 1999 WxBabes Hosted by Tripod website) where its not the strength of the object placed in front of those waves but that the u-wave curved  plastic / rubber is shaped in such a manner that it uses the oceans surge / waves against the oceans surge / waves. Corkscrew design to dissipate and the see-saw like wall where one side is closer to the surge / wave and when the surge / wave  forces the closer side of the see-saw (teeter-totter to sar2401)to move  the far side flings that force via the water it pushes towards the surge in a cross pattern to lower the surges momentum....yes Taz call it the "sea-saw" cause it cuts sea waves like a saw. This can also be done underwater but with ballast type multi-angled (obtuse to acute and acute to obtuse design) that creates so much under choas that the straight stronger flow looses its momentum.

Though was replied to here by WxU members that it was an idea to won;t work, 2 European companies asked to use the idea in a study (can't remember their names, i said take it, if it works share it with all people), i still think if another Katrina hits the Northern Gulf at least the surge can be lowered, but then again i'm loco.

Vis, you remind me of an engineer I used to work. He was...well...a little different, especially for a civil engineer. His home was a leaky old houseboat in Sausalito, lived with a truly bizarre fashion designer/artist he had been with for 25 years, and a beat up old Indian motorcycle was his only form of transportation. We had to design a fish screen for a dam that had almost impossible requirements from a total of 20 different agencies. He came up with the strangest Rube Goldberg type thing I'd ever seen. It consisted of two 100 foot long concrete bays with 30 foot wide stainless steel screens that went up and down depending on river flow into the reservoir. I couldn't even visualize this from the drawings, and neither could anyone else. He finally made a working 1/100th scale model, mostly from balsa wood and scrap plastic, so we could see what the thing would look like and how it would work. We were the laughingstock of the company with that thing, but nothing else that the traditional engineers could come up with would seem to work.

We finally went ahead with construction after seven years of engineering studies. It was the most complicated project I ever worked on. It looked even weirder when it was done. When we started it up for testing, we all ran behind the control building, sure it fly into a million pieces. To our, and everyone else's amazement, it not only didn't disintegrate, it performed exactly as intended. It's still working today. This project taught me that strange ideas aren't necessarily bad ideas.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
Very strong WWB has caused a large downwelling Kelvin wave at ~160W- should promote only a slow demise to
Robins visit our Melbourne Beach, FL home about Presidents' Day every year. They like the purple "grapes" that fall off our palms.
I love robins, but a flock of purple-pooping, drunk robins is not a pretty sight.
Strong thunderstorms ongoing in France, intense for the season, to say the least... Winds (and maybe also lightnings) did take down a few powerlines in the west of France ; at times in the afternoon there were an estimated 40000 people left without power, according to recent news stories. Now it seems the situation is better, with "only" a few thousand people left without power. However the radar shows it's not over yet, though at this point local meteorologists are saying the damage from the "storm" isn't expected to be strong. Previous models runs led the mets to believe a "bombification" was a real possibility for this low. Fortunately, that didn't happen (...yet). Still, there's some rough weather around, stirred by this UK/Netherlands low.
Current rain radar loop : Link
---
And I've noticed that there are 2 more strange-looking bubbles across the Center Equatorial Pacific, apart from Pali.
Quoting 124. sar2401:

My squirrels are pretty chunky too, but they are still running around the yard picking up what they can find. Their tree climbing ability doesn't seem to have been affected by carrying around the extra baggage. They seem to be having more fights than usual judging by their raucous chattering at each other.

I don't know how birds decide to migrate. I assume it does have something to do with the local weather. There was a column in my local paper from some local birdwatchers bemoaning the fact that our usual northern visitors hadn't arrived yet. This area seems to be a migratory bird watching hotspot. I guess part of it is because of our huge lake, but I think the other part is this nearly as far south as birds have to go to escape constant cold and snow cover. As our climate continues to warm, I'll bet it will affect the timing and and habits of birds migrating. Makes me wonder how many other things will be affected that we don't normally think much about.


I've always harboured venomous dislike of squirrels, ratlike pests with bushy tails which destroy my spring bulbs and dig up transplants.

But I was alarmed when they completely disappeared from my neighborhood from August-October this year before slowly returning. Population density is back to normal now. Still have no idea what happened to them but it's reassuring to see them back.
Quoting 142. georgevandenberghe:



I've always harboured venomous dislike of squirrels, ratlike pests with bushy tails which destroy my spring bulbs and dig up transplants.

But I was alarmed when they completely disappeared from my neighborhood from August-October this year before slowly returning. Population density is back to normal now. Still have no idea what happened to them.


That the usual squirrel Caucus every 4 years I do believe...though I may be mistaken.

: ' )
144. vis0
Quoting 110. barbamz:

Squirrels are fat because Northern Hemisphere weather is warm
Last updated 13:54, January 11 2016
Squirrels in the Northern Hemisphere are carrying more junk in their trunks this year, after a mild winter led to an abundance of food befitting the holiday season.
Social media users have engaged in gentle fat-shaming of the rodents, after residents of Europe and North American noticed their furry friends were rocking juicier booties.
Ironically named David Sugarman, a senior researcher at the Ontario Science Centre, told Metro Toronto a warm November meant there were more nuts and seeds for squirrels to gorge on, in anticipation of a cold snap that never came. ...



@DanaMefferd: One thing I do love about winter is seeing all the fat squirrels
9:51 PM - 16 Dec 2015

More fat squirrels see link above. Umm, I wonder how/if they could still manage to climb the trees :-)

BTW animals: this week thousands of migratory birds (esp. cranes) are on the move over Germany. People are wondering whether they are already back or haven't gone yet. The latter is true. It's only now as a deep freeze set in in northeastern Europe/Germany (this cold air is expected to flood most of Europe later this week) that the birds felt convinced to start their travel to the south.
If i may, i'll take this one sar2401,

David Sugarman forgot to add maybe they didn't expect an early cold snap but instead it was the  chex mix, wise or any potato chips, Doritos, crackers, snickers (many animals  luv the beige area nugget?-lactic portion of snickers), krispey kreme wrappers, pizza bits, ate more foods in garbage cans as more people had more outside dining time due to April in December weather...oh wait that's not what squirrels ate that's my shopping list goitaa gooooooooooooo

So maybe aGW is a squirrel driven force?[key:: dramatic music as squirrel in bkgnd has a nut in one hand while holds pinky up as Dr. Evil as Austin Powers]
Quoting 110. barbamz:

The squirrels are fat here in D.C as well.My husband being oblivious to weather at times asked me if it means a up coming winter that may be cold.I lol'd because that has definitely not been true up to this point.The squirrels have been trying to attack my neighbors squash since the beginning on August until they put a green house around their garden (The squirrels are still perched on top waiting for the right moment to enter),Re-call I made a post noting of the tremendous amount of acorns that were falling off my tree this past fall.The squirrels have been happy campers and eating more than they could have possibly dreamed of.
That squirrel is swimming in a bird feeder full of food and we're wondering why it's fat? He's got a 24 hour a day all you can eat buffet.
Quoting 146. Sfloridacat5:

That squirrel is swimming in a bird feeder full of food and we're wondering why it's fat? He's got a 24 hour a day all you can eat buffet.


How much rain did you end up with on Saturday? The heavy rains missed me in Tampa. I'm at 0.71" for the month.
Quoting 147. tampabaymatt:



How much rain did you end up with on Saturday? The heavy rains missed me in Tampa. I'm at 0.71" for the month.


I picked up over 2" here and that puts me over 3" for the month so far. It rained really hard with that cell that produced the tornado in Cape Coral. It crossed the river and went right through my location. Luckily the tornado wasn't still with it. But I did see 40 mph winds on my anemometer, which was fairly protected from the north wind because it's on the south side of the house. It was a nasty thunderstorm.


Look who's gonna be next to experience the same stormy low : Russia, among others.

"A powerful storm will strike central Russia on Tuesday and will cover Moscow in heavy snowfall. Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, told the Interfax news agency: "Around midday on Tuesday we predict a sudden change in weather conditions. The eastern fringe of a powerful cyclone is moving toward Moscow. Atmospheric pressure will plummet. The air temperature will rise by more than 10 degrees Celsius - from between -15 and -17 to -5." Vilfand said the snowstorm would begin after midday and peak after 3 p.m before calming by morning on Wednesday. Wind speed will hit 15-20 meters per second and snowdrifts and ice will complicate transport in Moscow, he said. "More snow will fall than in the entire preceding period," he added. Temperatures in Moscow and central Russia will drop back to -15 degrees Celsius or colder by the end of the week. The storm follows an outlandishly warm start to the Russian winter, with temperatures in the capital dropping below zero only in late December."
Quoting 150. JrWeathermanFL:




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
Ocean about 900 miles southwest of the Azores is producing a large
area of gale-force winds with maximum winds near 60 mph. Shower
activity is currently limited near the center, but this low could
gradually acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
during the next couple of days while it moves southeastward and then
eastward into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected
to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of the central
and eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 2 PM EST Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Pasch

Invest 90L?
I never see a hurricane borns east of 180ºW before May. This is unbelievable, probably will becomes a hurricane, the first hurricane "off season" since Ekeka in January 30th 1992; Man, this is the earliest 1st hurricane ever recorded in the basin. Look this outflow also:





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JAN 2016 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 8:23:07 N Lon : 172:39:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.7mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.0 4.1

Center Temp : -32.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.5 degrees
Pali, eye, must be a typhoon.
Oops. Hurricane.
I'm going to say it before this hurricane season even begins (because I know someone in July will be shouting it) This hurricane season is a bust :)
El Nino Track Storms since Jan 1 2016

Storm 1- 0.01
Storm 2- 2.13
Storm 3- 2.22
Storm 4- 0.05

Rain totals since Jan 1 - 4.41". Possible storm for Wed/Thu, GFS further south with track than ECMWF, but either way not a big storm for Soo Cal. Looks like the hose is pointing further north for now but that works for me also!
Quoting 147. tampabaymatt:



How much rain did you end up with on Saturday? The heavy rains missed me in Tampa. I'm at 0.71" for the month.


That's odd, my parent's live in North Pinellas and they've had 1.6 for so far, and St. Petersburg near 2 inches, not sure how most of it missed you.
Quoting 156. TheBigBanana:

A Dolly Parton size bust?

Is the central Atlantic storm an invest?
We will be on July 5th and someone will shout that hurricane season is a bust because we haven't had a large swirling cat 5 in the Atlantic.


Damn.

Quoting 154. washingtonian115:

I'm going to say it before this hurricane season even begins (because I know someone in July will be shouting it) This hurricane season is a bust :)
Already coin flipping?
The horror of it all! Link
Quoting 123. sar2401:

Pretty chilly up this way as well. The winds went calm about midnight and temperatures dropped like a rock, from 42 to 24 at 0630. It's only up to 44 now. We were lucky there wasn't extensive snow cover to our north or we would have seen widespread temperatures in the teens. Another shot of cold air gets here Wednesday although we should start getting back to normal by Friday. It's actually kind of refreshing to work outdoors again without sweating constantly.



Agreed, I enjoy these cold snaps down here this time of year, especially after experiencing 2-3 weeks straight of record warmth in December with highs in the 80's with dew points in the 70's and lows in the 70's. Cold weather down here isn't bad enough to hate, but it's cold enough to get a nice change. Here the coldest weather usually means a brilliant sunny day, which to me is fine no matter how cold the highs are unless it's well below freezing. Sure the nights can get pretty cold still, like it was 31 here with a 26 wind chill this morning, but then it recovers quickly into the 50's

I don't really see why some Floridians can complain about highs in the 50's with brilliant sun. It's beautiful winter weather. I don't understand why some here get all upset just because it's not flip flop and beach weather. Don't people want to wear some different clothes for a change and have a break from stinky flip flops that are terrible for arch support anyway? Don't get me wrong, I love the summer beach season in Florida, I love going to the beach in the summer, and fishing, but I need a break from it too. I like when it gets cold enough in the winter here to where by March, I'm done with cold weather and ready for spring warmth. Without a nice chilly winter, how can one enjoy the return of spring and summer as much?
Quoting 159. Gearsts:

Already coin flipping?
I honestly think that if things come together 2016 could be more interesting than the past 3 years.
Quoting 162. washingtonian115:

I honestly think that if things come together 2016 could be more interesting than the past 3 years.
That will be easy to do.
Quoting 93. tampabaymatt:



Is there something significant about the calendar turning to February when it comes to severe weather in FL?


Not so much the calendar change, but meteorological on average. There is notably more February and March precip and thunderstorm days in Central Florida on average than the rest of the fall-winter-spring period.
The main reason is due to storm track. Florida is almost always far enough south to have plenty of moisture return and low level instability for severe weather ahead of approaching storm systems, even in the winter, but if the storm track and upper system are too removed, there will be no chance at severe weather, or even thunderstorms. The only exception to that if a storm system rapidly arrives right on the heels of cold, dry air, than the response may not be fast enough.

Regardless though, it's usually a lack of adequate lift, upper support, steeper lapse rates, sheer, and dynamics that are associated with being closer to the storm track that prevents severe weather. El Nino or not, on average more mid latitude storm tracks are closer to Florida in February and March than the other months. This can be further enhanced by El Nino both in terms of placement and how vigorous they are. Jet stream strength and position associated with El Nino on average increases the chance that storm tracks will be closer to Florida and the strength of such systems.

A stronger low that is closer to Florida such as the gulf coast or the gulf almost certainly leads to some severe risk in Florida.
Again though, this is all on average, so there's no guarantee February and March will have frequent heavy rain and severe threats, but that chance will indeed by higher.

The pattern we are seeing now has been trending more in that direction, the active southern jet in the area has led to more frequent rain chances and cooling events, and finally brought some stronger thunderstorms into the area this last weekend,
The system in a few days has a higher severe potential in terms of dynamic support, but there remains model disagreement on the strength and placement of the low, and moisture/instability recovery is in question too, given there will still be cool and dry air over Florida into Thursday.

Wave on southern end of the front that extends from a low south of the Gulf of Alaska is the probable storm headed for the California coast Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Upper airstreams actually extend further to the outflow from Pali, but no deep moisture (yet) as Pali takes a southerly loop.
Quoting 90. StormTrackerScott:

Folks in FL get ready for a Severe weather event Thursday Night into Friday. Heavy rains with totals in the 3" to 4" range across C FL. There also could be tornadoes given this wind field beginning depicted on both the Euro & GFS. Even if there aren't many tornadoes winds will be strong pretty much everywhere maybe in excess of 50mph. So to those saying where's El-Nino here in FL well I hope this passed weekend was a wake up call when a EF 2 tornado hit Cape Coral.

I know this is @ 850mb but even surface winds are expected to exceed 50mph in some cases. Looking like an extreme event on the way.



This upcoming weather event is being aided by a extremely powerful jet core as a response to this record breaking El-Nino.



Look @ the wording used of by the NWS in Melbourne this morning. Guys get ready!

THU-FRI...BY EARLY THU AN APPROACHING WAVE OVER THE GULF COUPLED
WITH STRONG JET MAXIMA IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX DURING THU.
00Z GFS
AND EC GUID INDICATES AN APCHG SFC LOW OF VARYING INTENSITY
NEARING CENTRAL TO N FL EARLY FRI MORNING WITH AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN LOCAL WIND FIELDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EITHER SOLN
WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO A SPECIFIC WINDOW OF TIME.
THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY FORECASTS.
FRI...GULF SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE GENERAL AREA BY EVENING WITH A
LOWERING OF PCPN COVERAGE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO START THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT LOST LOW COOLDOWN IS NOT INDICATED ATTM.


It's going to be a tricky forecast given that models are in disagreement on the strength of the gulf system as well as placement. Also, it will still be cool and very dry going into Thursday. If the low is strong enough, wind fields will likely be able to pull in plenty of moisture return and enough low level instability. It wouldn't be ideal, but a stronger low would have much stronger dynamics. Synoptic forcing from the low combined with strong low level shear, a strong low level jet, and strong upper divergence would make up for lower CAPE values.

But again, that depends on placement and strength, a 1005 mb low or deeper passing through northern gulf for example, would be plenty strong enough to warrant at least a slight risk. Either way, it looks like heavy rainfall will be likely, despite that the system will be very fast moving, strong upper divergence and a strong low level jet will promote a lot of convection with good moisture convergence, leading to heavy rainfall rates.

With all that cold drier air streaming in a longtitudinal flow into that wannabe tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic, it's difficult to see how it could become tropical, at least anytime soon. That inflow would have to cut off entirely.
168. ariot
The high yesterday at my little patch of dirt (that I rent) was 62.
That's only 26 degrees above the "average."

This part of Maryland isn't known for cold weather or snow, or anything really.

But, strangeness of heavy right, bright sun, more heavy rain, 60+ degrees, wind warning, and temps dropping like a rock was really creepy to experience.

If I wanted weather that kicked my ass and confused me at the same time, I'd move to the front range or back down to the third coast.

Sheesh.
Quoting 167. BayFog:


With all that cold drier air streaming in a longtitudinal flow into that wannabe tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic, it's difficult to see how it could become tropical, at least anytime soon. That inflow would have to cut off entirely.

If it continues to move SE, it would put itself in a more favorable enviornment.
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:



That's odd, my parent's live in North Pinellas and they've had 1.6 for so far, and St. Petersburg near 2 inches, not sure how most of it missed you.


Most of the heavy convection weakened as it moved NE. All of the heavier totals were about Tampa Bay southward.

My location is in NW Tampa, about 7 miles north of the airport.
SSD Dvorak has Pali at hurricane strength:

TXPN28 KNES 111748
TCSCNP

A. 01C (PALI)

B. 11/1730Z

C. 8.4N

D. 172.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON MG EMBEDDED GRAY SHADE WITH MG EYE
SURROUNDED BY LG. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/1429Z 8.4N 172.6W AMSU
11/1516Z 8.3N 172.7W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ


20160111 | 1730 | C-PAC | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 172.7 | 987 | 65 | 01C | PALI | 1 | AS

Link
Temps forecast to drop into the 20's tonight/early am in the Florida Big Bend; right on cue going
towards February which is the coldest month here every year. Will be interesting to see how
many below freezing mornings we have between now and March. Typical El Nino (for the Gulf
Coast-SE Conus) is cool and wet (in the 30's with lots of frontal passages) and the typical Gulf
Lows that morph into Nor-Easters. We just had a low trajectory low pass north of us a few days
ago but high pressure is currently dominating again with this deep push of Arctic air.

Not sure when we will start to see the more robust El Nino Gulf Lows this year..............................................


Forecast valid Tuesday 00Z

FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...26 TO 31 DEGREES.

* DURATION...UP TO 10 HOURS.


Interesting isolated large t-storm several hundred miles west of the US-Mexico border over the Pacific, starting to dissipate, but with what appears to be a nice outflow boundary moving northward into the flow ahead of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary well offshore. A puzzle as to its dynamics. It persisted for awhile as a standing wave.
Quoting 173. 999Ai2016:

Sat. fix...




Pali has been hogging a good deal of the atmospheric moisture of the core El Nino region. Let's hope it will decide to share some of that when it dissipates, whenever that may be.
177. flsky
Care to share a recipe or two?

Quoting 120. Patrap:




My seafood one has no andouille, but my chicken and andouille is to cry for. Just show up between now and Feb 9th, Fat Tuesday(Mardi Gras day) and one can have both here likely.
Shear continues to lower within the vicinity of our Atlantic AOI.
"THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CYCLONE ACHIEVING HURRICANE STATUS SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE...DESPITE ITS LOW LATITUDE. THE ONLY HINDERING FACTOR TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS PROXIMITY TO VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN A 1234 UTC GCOM-AMSR2 WATER VAPOR IMAGE."

(From the last NHC advisory, TS PALI)
El Niño has been a flame out forecast for Central Fl so far. There are signals that Thursday night/Friday could finally bring us some interesting weather. The model guidance is still unclear. This past weekend storms got more energized over south Florida (EF2 tornado) which has seen plenty of rain since December 1st.
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN NIGHT)...

DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO, WHICH EVENTUALLY IMPACTS FL, IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES. THUS, PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED SOMEWHAT INTO THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER, IN CONTRAST TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP BETWEEN 12Z THURS-0Z FRIDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP BLENDS FOR THIS DAY CONSIDERING. THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON LATE THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY BEING THE DAY IN WHICH LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF FL, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCOMING FORM THE GULF.
WATCHING THE OPERATIONAL GFS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, IT DOES SEEM
TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/QPF BULLSEYES, WHICH PUTS
INTO QUESTION ITS EVENTUAL TRACK/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOME OF THE STRONGER FEATURES
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK CUTTING
THROUGH THE GULF ALONG WITH FORECASTED WIND FIELDS CANNOT BE
IGNORED. THIS SETUP FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FL AT THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTH FL LATE WEEKEND COULD
DELIVER ANOTHER COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Link
Quoting 168. ariot:

The high yesterday at my little patch of dirt (that I rent) was 62.
That's only 26 degrees above the "average."

This part of Maryland isn't known for cold weather or snow, or anything really.

But, strangeness of heavy right, bright sun, more heavy rain, 60+ degrees, wind warning, and temps dropping like a rock was really creepy to experience.

If I wanted weather that kicked my ass and confused me at the same time, I'd move to the front range or back down to the third coast.

Sheesh.


This rapid change did a number on crops I didn't have a chance to cover in my rental garden. I didn't want to cover yesterday after just uncovering saturday because of expected warmth and I had other things to do last night. Went out today and covered.. expecting sustained cold for awhile.
Current MOBILE NWS Long range discussion includes this tidbit.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 11.12Z
ECMWF SUGGESTS A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS COUPLED WITH A MODIFIED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE OCCURRING DURING TIME OF MARGINALLY LOW
CRITICAL LAYER THICKNESS VALUES. IN THE OTHER CAMP...THE GFS IS DRY.
CONSIDERING THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL KEEP WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WORDING OUT OF THE ZONES...WITH POP CHANCES BEING LOW ~10% SATURDAY
NIGHT. /10
The major story on our local news here is the Cape Coral EF2 tornado.
I thought this was a pretty unique picture. The roof is missing and a lightning bolt was captured in the image.
pic from nbc-2.com here in Fort Myers
Current Jet.......Storms doing a split/choosing which way to go well off the coast of California to avoid the ridge over Soo Cal........let's see if North or South get the most energy.





And then at day 9, a very active jet into Northern/Central California when the GFS was forecasting damnation and hell for California with some seriously Low mb Pacific systems.

Quoting 180. 999Ai2016:

"THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CYCLONE ACHIEVING HURRICANE STATUS SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE...DESPITE ITS LOW LATITUDE. THE ONLY HINDERING FACTOR TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS PROXIMITY TO VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN A 1234 UTC GCOM-AMSR2 WATER VAPOR IMAGE."

(From the last NHC advisory, TS PALI)

Where is that dry air coming from? Stratosphere? Australia?
NCAR ANNOUNCES POWERFUL NEW SUPERCOMPUTER FOR SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY

January 11, 2016

BOULDER—The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) announced today that it has selected its next supercomputer for advancing atmospheric and Earth science, following a competitive open procurement process. The new machine will help scientists lay the groundwork for improved predictions of a range of phenomena, from hour-by-hour risks associated with thunderstorm outbreaks to the timing of the 11-year solar cycle and its potential impacts on GPS and other sensitive technologies.

The new system, named Cheyenne, will be installed this year at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) and become operational at the beginning of 2017.

Cheyenne will be built by Silicon Graphics International Corp. (SGI) in conjunction with centralized file system and data storage components provided by DataDirect Networks (DDN). The SGI high-performance computer will be a 5.34-petaflop system, meaning it can carry out 5.34 quadrillion calculations per second. It will be capable of more than 2.5 times the amount of scientific computing performed by Yellowstone, the current NCAR supercomputer.

Funded by the National Science Foundation and the state of Wyoming through an appropriation to the University of Wyoming, Cheyenne will be a critical tool for researchers across the country studying climate change, severe weather, geomagnetic storms, seismic activity, air quality, wildfires, and other important geoscience topics. Since the supercomputing facility in Wyoming opened its doors in 2012, more than 2,200 scientists from more than 300 universities and federal labs have used its resources.

Read more >>


Six clips of scientific visualizations created with the help of the Yellowstone supercomputer. For more details on the individual clips, and to see the full-length visualizations, click here.
Next Pacific system coming ashore in Oregon but with good rains in Northern California Wednesday.



And the forecast tail of the storm for Soo Cal is pretty much chewed off and spit out by the ridge in the area. No hay mucho de lluvia para Soo Cal !

Reservoirs coming up slowly but still low, easy as you go Captain!

So, your saying we are going to get the short end of the stick again. Storm #5=.00
Quoting 191. PedleyCA:

So, your saying we are going to get the short end of the stick again. Storm #5=.00


I'm thinking No hay mucho de lluvia para Soo Cal ! AKA Drip, Drip and Drip........my 2 cents anyway.
Per 18z NAM Here is Soo Cal's best shot for rain Wednesday morning.






WE NEED TO GET RID OF THAT RIDGE SW OF SOO CAL UNTIL APRIL!



Quoting 175. BayFog:


Interesting isolated large t-storm several hundred miles west of the US-Mexico border over the Pacific, starting to dissipate, but with what appears to be a nice outflow boundary moving northward into the flow ahead of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary well offshore. A puzzle as to its dynamics. It persisted for awhile as a standing wave.


That is odd, especially given east Pacific water temps. Though there does appear to be some nice diffluence in that region which I think is mainly responsible:



Though the decreasing speed isn't particularly conducive, we generally look for total divergence for ideal forced convective conditions(Speed divergence plus diffluent vector pattern). But the pattern is at least divergent despite the slowing winds, so that may be enough.
195. elioe
This has been a very interesting storm to follow. Always full of surprises...

Looks like Central/South Florida my have some goodies headed their way also.



Quoting 175. BayFog:


Interesting isolated large t-storm several hundred miles west of the US-Mexico border over the Pacific, starting to dissipate, but with what appears to be a nice outflow boundary moving northward into the flow ahead of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary well offshore. A puzzle as to its dynamics. It persisted for awhile as a standing wave.


Flow is GOOD! I like Flow! Flow right into California.
Quoting 181. Bucsboltsfan:

El Ni%uFFFDo has been a flame out forecast for Central Fl so far. There are signals that Thursday night/Friday could finally bring us some interesting weather. The model guidance is still unclear. This past weekend storms got more energized over south Florida (EF2 tornado) which has seen plenty of rain since December 1st.


January is at least resembling El Nino a lot more than December though, and don't forget that El Nino simply statistically increases our odds of severe weather and heavy rains, it doesn't guarantee them. There are many other things at play in the atmosphere that impact that which are more random in nature. So while this is the strongest El Nino on record, we can't assume it will outdo the 1997-1998 event in terms of rainfall and severe weather in Florida. It's not the same as comparing a category 3 hurricane to category 4 hurricane. It's too early to call though, as El Nino can potentially be involved up through March/April.

Recently though, the southern stream has been more active over Florida, and there have been an increasing frequency of low pressure systems. The gulf low later this week would be a classic El Nino setup. There is a potential for heavy rains and severe thunderstorms in Central and Southwest Florida. But not all models agree on this though. So it's still up in the air. The WPC seems a bit too ambitious on rainfall predictions given the lack of model agreements. But it's basing it's numbers on the GFS. If the GFS is right, that forecast will probably do quite well, along with a severe threat.

The SPC seems to believe more of the ECMWF which has a weaker low and further north, they mention a low in their discussion being too weak for a notable severe threat. Though it would be nice if they mentioned that other models do support a more notable severe threat like the GFS. It could go either way given the lack of consistency, but again. I don't really like how WPC absolutely embraces the GFS, while SPC is acting like the GFS forecast doesn't exist. If it was my call, I'd do a blend between the two given the uncertainty.
Quoting 188. Xandra:

NCAR ANNOUNCES POWERFUL NEW SUPERCOMPUTER FOR SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY

January 11, 2016

BOULDER—The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) announced today that it has selected its next supercomputer for advancing atmospheric and Earth science, following a competitive open procurement process. The new machine will help scientists lay the groundwork for improved predictions of a range of phenomena, from hour-by-hour risks associated with thunderstorm outbreaks to the timing of the 11-year solar cycle and its potential impacts on GPS and other sensitive technologies.

The new system, named Cheyenne, will be installed this year at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) and become operational at the beginning of 2017.

Cheyenne will be built by Silicon Graphics International Corp. (SGI) in conjunction with centralized file system and data storage components provided by DataDirect Networks (DDN). The SGI high-performance computer will be a 5.34-petaflop system, meaning it can carry out 5.34 quadrillion calculations per second. It will be capable of more than 2.5 times the amount of scientific computing performed by Yellowstone, the current NCAR supercomputer.

Funded by the National Science Foundation and the state of Wyoming through an appropriation to the University of Wyoming, Cheyenne will be a critical tool for researchers across the country studying climate change, severe weather, geomagnetic storms, seismic activity, air quality, wildfires, and other important geoscience topics. Since the supercomputing facility in Wyoming opened its doors in 2012, more than 2,200 scientists from more than 300 universities and federal labs have used its resources.

Read more >>


Six clips of scientific visualizations created with the help of the Yellowstone supercomputer. For more details on the individual clips, and to see the full-length visualizations, click here.

Hmmm.... lucrative contract for SGI ... let's hope we see forecasting move to a new level beginning in 2017 ....

Speaking of forecasting, I should have a review of a couple of books on the early days of wx forecasting, thanks to a very thoughtful Christmas gift from a friend ..... but more on that later. :o)
Quoting 196. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Looks like Central/South Florida my have some goodies headed their way also.




Wonder how much of this is going to make it to the Bahamas .... if we see appreciable rains, this Jan will already be setting up to be one of our wetter ones on record ... and though we got little / no rain with this latest front, we may indeed get the coolness ... supposed to dip to 66 in Nassau tonight.....

Wow .... pretty slow in here, given the existence of Pali AND cat 4 Ula ..... not to mention a potential January subtropical storm in the ATL .....



So this is it. Pali becomes the 1st hurricane of the 2016 Pacific Hurricane Season:

- The earliest 1st named storm ever recorded.
- The earliest 1st hurricane ever recorded.
- The lowest pressure recorded in a tropical cyclone "off season" (Ekeka had 985 mbar).

Hurricane PALI
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 12, 2016:

Location: 8.3°N 172.0°W
Maximum Winds: 75 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 175 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A



The ADT already have the almost 1st major hurricane of the season. O_O :


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JAN 2016 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 8:31:10 N Lon : 172:06:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 966.6mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.2 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -21.6C Cloud Region Temp : -58.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.9 degrees

Aw, nutz! Here we go again!

Houston NWS scientific discussion:


NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MORE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
CLOSER TO WED NIGHT AND THUR. RAIN CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN OFF THE COAST. THAT SAID LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG
TO CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE INCREASING PER
LATEST GFS/NAM DATA WITH CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO INCLUDED
ISO THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. SHOULD TRENDS WITH FORECAST DATA
SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND AS MAIN HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
LOW IN THIS RIGHT NOW BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR.


I gotta be on the road on Thursday, man! What am I gonna do? Jeez!
Quoting 181. Bucsboltsfan:

El Niño has been a flame out forecast for Central Fl so far. There are signals that Thursday night/Friday could finally bring us some interesting weather. The model guidance is still unclear. This past weekend storms got more energized over south Florida (EF2 tornado) which has seen plenty of rain since December 1st.

Yeah, we haven't received much precip the past few months. Our biggest rain was about 10 days ago with 0.63" We've had a few 0.08" events and a 0.11" but overall its been a dry late fall/early winter here in Sanford
Chilly here in Houston this morning ..pups got to go out in their matching sweaters that Santa brought them.
Tomorrow looks to be glorious ...in the low 60's and sunny ...trying to think about a way to get out of work early ..any ideas?
202. pablosyn

Calm down...wouldn't want to break the keyboard now.
Quoting 206. washingtonian115:

202. pablosyn

Calm down...wouldn't want to break the keyboard now.


Excited ...lol
At this point in the year I enjoy the snow and cooler/cold weather reports ...hard to put a hurricane in with that in my mind ..lol
Unless something changes, the next storm or 2 will be of the drip drip drip type for Soo Cal. Northern California, on the other hand, will see some decent Light/Moderate rainfall totals. So, all is not lost and if some of those "El Nino Train" of storms flows into Soo Cal once or twice a month into spring, things will be ok.
Quoting 205. justmehouston:

Chilly here in Houston this morning ..pups got to go out in their matching sweaters that Santa brought them.
Tomorrow looks to be glorious ...in the low 60's and sunny ...trying to think about a way to get out of work early ..any ideas?



I would worry more about what's going to happen on Thursday if I were you. Note how forecaster confidence seems to be increasing when it comes to thunderstorms.
Quoting 198. Jedkins01:



January is at least resembling El Nino a lot more than December though, and don't forget that El Nino simply statistically increases our odds of severe weather and heavy rains, it doesn't guarantee them. There are many other things at play in the atmosphere that impact that which are more random in nature. So while this is the strongest El Nino on record, we can't assume it will outdo the 1997-1998 event in terms of rainfall and severe weather in Florida. It's not the same as comparing a category 3 hurricane to category 4 hurricane. It's too early to call though, as El Nino can potentially be involved up through March/April.

Recently though, the southern stream has been more active over Florida, and there have been an increasing frequency of low pressure systems. The gulf low later this week would be a classic El Nino setup. There is a potential for heavy rains and severe thunderstorms in Central and Southwest Florida. But not all models agree on this though. So it's still up in the air. The WPC seems a bit too ambitious on rainfall predictions given the lack of model agreements. But it's basing it's numbers on the GFS. If the GFS is right, that forecast will probably do quite well, along with a severe threat.

The SPC seems to believe more of the ECMWF which has a weaker low and further north, they mention a low in their discussion being too weak for a notable severe threat. Though it would be nice if they mentioned that other models do support a more notable severe threat like the GFS. It could go either way given the lack of consistency, but again. I don't really like how WPC absolutely embraces the GFS, while SPC is acting like the GFS forecast doesn't exist. If it was my call, I'd do a blend between the two given the uncertainty.


And Soo Cal got a 4-5 day taste of El Nino! We do need much more though. We had tornado warnings in San Diego. Strong storms,Heavy rain, Strong winds.........just whetted my appetite! Bring it on!
Quoting 205. justmehouston:

Chilly here in Houston this morning ..pups got to go out in their matching sweaters that Santa brought them.
Tomorrow looks to be glorious ...in the low 60's and sunny ...trying to think about a way to get out of work early ..any ideas?


Herd emergency?
It would be interesting to be able to track a very early Atlantic tropical system. Guess I will need to brush off the dust on my desktop icon for hurricane tracking :)
Hello boys and girls.

Quoting 214. Grothar:




My poor baby brother in Ohio
Should have postponed my vacation for about two weeks later than when I went ..would love to play in the snow again
Quoting 213. Grothar:

Hello boys and girls.


Hey Gro ... pretty pic.... :o) .... looks like SFL and CA may get rain at the same time this week.

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39°NLon: 84.35°WElev: 79ft.

Fair

36°F

2°C
Humidity 67%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.23 in (1023.7 mb)
Dewpoint 26°F (-3°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 11 Jan 9:53 pm EST


It's a cold crisp night here, I'm expecting to scrape ice in the morning when I get up for school, forecast low is 27 here.
Yuk!



Almost the same kind of pattern Houston experienced last week with the hail
I have found that the modeling from the general to the specific when it comes to climate change has been poor at best. I attribute this to the fact that the weather is really complex and there are some pieces we still don't understand.

This new computer might help, it is only 2.5 times as fast in raw processing power, but it may be much faster than that with the addition of ram. (It has a lot of ram, and storage too.)

http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/11/cheyenne-clima te-supercomputer/

Of course to really get accurate we will need a lot more weather stations, buoys and maybe real data feeds from every airplane and ship in motion every minute of the day. Of course that much data will be useless with only a paltry 250 percent speed increase in computing. (The 286 computer I bought in 88 was a 10 MHz machine, which was twice as fast per cycle and twice as many cycles per second as the 8080 it repalced.)


"That party was nothing compared with the celebration that will take place if Martinis and his group can actually create the wonder computer they seek. Because it would harness the strange properties of quantum physics that arise in extreme conditions like those on the ultracold chip, the new computer would let a Google coder run calculations in a coffee break that would take a supercomputer of today millions of years. The software that Google has developed on ordinary computers to drive cars or answer questions could become vastly more intelligent. And earlier-stage ideas bubbling up at Google and its parent company, such as robots that can serve as emergency responders or software that can converse at a human level, might become real.
"
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/544421/googl es-quantum-dream-machine/

Now if this one come on line, then we might be able to get an understanding of what will happen. Of course we would still need all that data, but the IOT, may solve that problem for us if it doesn't become self aware.

Cheers
Qazulight
A weak cold front passed over the Northern Leewards on monday.. with no significant rain, but some interesting clouds were observed late in the afternoon : See last 4 pictures
Quoting 213. Grothar:

Hello boys and girls.




That's all going to Northern and Central California.........Will it ever rain again in Soo Cal? Drip Drip Drip do not count anymore.
And a good evening to you and the mrs!
It appears convection is creeping quite near the centre of our maybe-storm in the Atlantic. Perhaps the transition is beginning, shear had lowered in the area, I think.
Roll Tide 45-40 Final
Quoting 226. PedleyCA:

Roll Tide 45-40 Final


Got a little nervous there at the end, but Bama's Special Teams really pulled through there. Roll Tide, roll.

S-E-C!
228. vis0

Quoting 188. Xandra:

NCAR ANNOUNCES POWERFUL NEW SUPERCOMPUTER FOR SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY

January 11, 2016

BOULDER—The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) announced today that it has selected its next supercomputer for advancing atmospheric and Earth science, following a competitive open procurement process. The new machine will help scientists lay the groundwork for improved predictions of a range of phenomena, from hour-by-hour risks associated with thunderstorm outbreaks to the timing of the 11-year solar cycle and its potential impacts on GPS and other sensitive technologies.

The new system, named Cheyenne, will be installed this year at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) and become operational at the beginning of 2017.

Cheyenne will be built by Silicon Graphics International Corp. (SGI) in conjunction with centralized file system and data storage components provided by DataDirect Networks (DDN). The SGI high-performance computer will be a 5.34-petaflop system, meaning it can carry out 5.34 quadrillion calculations per second. It will be capable of more than 2.5 times the amount of scientific computing performed by Yellowstone, the current NCAR supercomputer.

Funded by the National Science Foundation and the state of Wyoming through an appropriation to the University of Wyoming, Cheyenne will be a critical tool for researchers across the country studying climate change, severe weather, geomagnetic storms, seismic activity, air quality, wildfires, and other important geoscience topics. Since the supercomputing facility in Wyoming opened its doors in 2012, more than 2,200 scientists from more than 300 universities and federal labs have used its resources.

Read more >>


Six clips of scientific visualizations created with the help of the Yellowstone supercomputer. For more details on the individual clips, and to see the full-length visualizations, click here.

too soon?
My newest favorite word: petaflop!
Beginning to detach.

Got the inversion blues. 22° this morning in the valley, 36° at Mt Baker, rained most of the day both places. Up to a miserable 31° now and you guessed it raining.
Quoting 227. Astrometeor:



Got a little nervous there at the end, but Bama's Special Teams really pulled through there. Roll Tide, roll.

S-E-C!


SEC? Last I checked only 1 team can win the title. The SEC has been non-sense besides Alabama the last couple years :)
Quoting 226. PedleyCA:

Roll Tide 45-40 Final


You live out in CA, unless you went to Alabama, you have no business rolltiding :)
234. vis0

Quoting 205. justmehouston:

Chilly here in Houston this morning ..pups got to go out in their matching sweaters that Santa brought them.
Tomorrow looks to be glorious ...in the low 60's and sunny ...trying to think about a way to get out of work early ..any ideas?
hi i'm justmehoustonboss, what was yer question?

my no fun now but fun later  advice,::Go to work, do it on time so yer not in a hurry and therefore can enjoy SOME of the beautiful day - as much as possible - Think of the more sweaters you   Santa can give  from the pay of that days work   'cause you were nice not naughty.  Remember not much $$ is more than nothing, and goodness forbid one truly needs a sick day, so try not using those up unless really needed.


Quoting 222. Qazulight:

I have found that the modeling from the general to the specific when it comes to climate change has been poor at best.


Really? And what basis do you have for that? What's your criteria? Perhaps a link to your published analysis on the subject? Just wondering, since the subject matter experts seem to disagree with you. Even Arrhenius's model does a pretty good job and that was developed going on 120 years ago.

I attribute this to the fact that the weather is really complex and there are some pieces we still don't understand.


*sigh*

Climate is trends and averages. To illustrate:

Roll a die 100 times. Can you predict exactly what side comes up on any roll? With enough careful measurement and modelling, you might be able to. But since you don't have perfect information your error rate will still be relatively high. This is weather modelling.

Roll a die 100 times. Can you predict what the average of what the 100 rolls will be? Of course, that's trivial math, much easier to predict, and you will have a much smaller error. That's climate.

This new computer might help, it is only 2.5 times as fast in raw processing power, but it may be much faster than that with the addition of ram. (It has a lot of ram, and storage too.)

http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/11/cheyenne-clima te-supercomputer


The largest bottleneck with modern climate models is I/O. Models can only scale so far before they reach a point of diminishing returns. They'd get a much bigger kick in performance by switching to SSDs, but that doesn't help (and in fact, can harm) network saturation.

However, more ram and faster processors mean more ensemble runs can be run and a bit faster than before.

Of course to really get accurate we will need a lot more weather stations, buoys and maybe real data feeds from every airplane and ship in motion every minute of the day.


Not really. It would help weather prediction, but wouldn't appreciably affect climate modeling. Climate models are dealing with averages projected over long periods time. You might improve initial conditions with enough data, but the overall impact of any such improvement would be buried under the noise of the ensemble perturbations.

Of course that much data will be useless with only a paltry 250 percent speed increase in computing. (The 286 computer I bought in 88 was a 10 MHz machine, which was twice as fast per cycle and twice as many cycles per second as the 8080 it repalced.)"That party was nothing compared with the celebration that will take place if Martinis and his group can actually create the wonder computer they seek. Because it would harness the strange properties of quantum physics that arise in extreme conditions like those on the ultracold chip, the new computer would let a Google coder run calculations in a coffee break that would take a supercomputer of today millions of years.


That depends GREATLY on the class of problem you are talking about. Quantum computing is a big reaserchy buzz word, but like anything else it's really good for some things and not so great at others. It's just like FPGAs or GPUs. You can run certain calculations thousands of times faster on a GPU than a CPU. But you wouldn't want to run an operating system like Windows on one.

Think of computing like your toolbox. Inside your toolbox, you have a bunch of tools to make jobs easier. But would you use a sander to screw in a screw? Or a hammer to measure a length of wood? There are many different kinds of processing units out there. Some are designed to be general purpose (like the CPU in your computer) and some are designed for a specific purpose (like a DAC chip in your mp3 player). A quantum computer would be more along the lines of specialized hardware (like a DAC or GPU). But you're not going to have one sitting in your machine running Linux/Window/OSX/etc.

The software that Google has developed on ordinary computers to drive cars or answer questions could become vastly more intelligent. And earlier-stage ideas bubbling up at Google and its parent company, such as robots that can serve as emergency responders or software that can converse at a human level, might become real.
"
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/544421/googl es-quantum-dream-machine/

Now if this one come on line, then we might be able to get an understanding of what will happen. Of course we would still need all that data, but the IOT, may solve that problem for us if it doesn't become self aware.

Cheers
Qazulight


IoT makes the data problem worse, not better, and introduces a whole new set of problems (not the least of which is security).

And again, quantum computers are not magic. Especially their version which is an annealing quantum computer (as opposed to a true quantum computer). They won't spontaneously become aware anymore than your computer will. Learning and AI algorithms have been around for decades. We're seeing what appears to be "leaps and bounds" now because the hardware has reached a point where implementation of said algorithms in close to real time is now a possibility. Like any other branch of research, the theoretical side of things are figured out well in advance of implementation. Sure, these companies have added their own research and built upon the shoulders of the giants that came before them. But a number of these ideas, algorithms, and even devices have been around for quite some time. (For example, did you know the humble and ubiquitous CCD was invented in 1969?)
Did you read the last sentence in your post?

"CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN THIS RIGHT NOW BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR."


Quoting 209. pureet1948:




I would worry more about what's going to happen on Thursday if I were you. Note how forecaster confidence seems to be increasing when it comes to thunderstorms.
Until something changes, looks like pretty dry in Soo Cal with the exception of a drip drip drip storm or 2. :(
238. vis0

Quoting 235. Xyrus2000:



Really? And what basis do you have for that? What's your criteria? Perhaps a link to your published analysis on the subject? Just wondering, since the subject matter experts seem to disagree with you. Even Arrhenius's model does a pretty good job and that was developed going on 120 years ago.

I attribute this to the fact that the weather is really complex and there are some pieces we still don't understand.


*sigh*

Climate is trends and averages. To illustrate:

Roll a die 100 times. Can you predict exactly what side comes up on any roll? With enough careful measurement and modelling, you might be able to. But since you don't have perfect information your error rate will still be relatively high. This is weather modelling.

Roll a die 100 times. Can you predict what the average of what the 100 rolls will be? Of course, that's trivial math, much easier to predict, and you will have a much smaller error. That's climate.

This new computer might help, it is only 2.5 times as fast in raw processing power, but it may be much faster than that with the addition of ram. (It has a lot of ram, and storage too.)

http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/11/cheyenne-clima te-supercomputer


The largest bottleneck with modern climate models is I/O. Models can only scale so far before they reach a point of diminishing returns. They'd get a much bigger kick in performance by switching to SSDs, but that doesn't help (and in fact, can harm) network saturation.

However, more ram and faster processors mean more ensemble runs can be run and a bit faster than before.

Of course to really get accurate we will need a lot more weather stations, buoys and maybe real data feeds from every airplane and ship in motion every minute of the day.


Not really. It would help weather prediction, but wouldn't appreciably affect climate modeling. Climate models are dealing with averages projected over long periods time. You might improve initial conditions with enough data, but the overall impact of any such improvement would be buried under the noise of the ensemble perturbations.

Of course that much data will be useless with only a paltry 250 percent speed increase in computing. (The 286 computer I bought in 88 was a 10 MHz machine, which was twice as fast per cycle and twice as many cycles per second as the 8080 it repalced.)"That party was nothing compared with the celebration that will take place if Martinis and his group can actually create the wonder computer they seek. Because it would harness the strange properties of quantum physics that arise in extreme conditions like those on the ultracold chip, the new computer would let a Google coder run calculations in a coffee break that would take a supercomputer of today millions of years.


That depends GREATLY on the class of problem you are talking about. Quantum computing is a big reaserchy buzz word, but like anything else it's really good for some things and not so great at others. It's just like FPGAs or GPUs. You can run certain calculations thousands of times faster on a GPU than a CPU. But you wouldn't want to run an operating system like Windows on one.

Think of computing like your toolbox. Inside your toolbox, you have a bunch of tools to make jobs easier. But would you use a sander to screw in a screw? Or a hammer to measure a length of wood? There are many different kinds of processing units out there. Some are designed to be general purpose (like the CPU in your computer) and some are designed for a specific purpose (like a DAC chip in your mp3 player). A quantum computer would be more along the lines of specialized hardware (like a DAC or GPU). But you're not going to have one sitting in your machine running Linux/Window/OSX/etc.

The software that Google has developed on ordinary computers to drive cars or answer questions could become vastly more intelligent. And earlier-stage ideas bubbling up at Google and its parent company, such as robots that can serve as emergency responders or software that can converse at a human level, might become real.
"
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/544421/googl es-quantum-dream-machine/

Now if this one come on line, then we might be able to get an understanding of what will happen. Of course we would still need all that data, but the IOT, may solve that problem for us if it doesn't become self aware.

Cheers
Qazulight


IoT makes the data problem worse, not better, and introduces a whole new set of problems (not the least of which is security).

And again, quantum computers are not magic. Especially their version which is an annealing quantum computer (as opposed to a true quantum computer). They won't spontaneously become aware anymore than your computer will. Learning and AI algorithms have been around for decades. We're seeing what appears to be "leaps and bounds" now because the hardware has reached a point where implementation of said algorithms in close to real time is now a possibility. Like any other branch of research, the theoretical side of things are figured out well in advance of implementation. Sure, these companies have added their own research and built upon the shoulders of the giants that came before them. But a number of these ideas, algorithms, and even devices have been around for quite some time. (For example, did you know the humble and ubiquitous CCD was invented in 1969?)
Hope the reply is not taken in the wrong manner.  i like  the manner which Xyrus2000 breakdown the replies its 2 times better than Xyrus1000...btw though i understand the proper tool example i** have use a hammer to measure and a sandpaper as a screwdriver, pliers as a saw, whas that ^Dakster? oh yes a saw as a violin. All taught to me by that great program years ago that presented so many uses for every tool...no not THIS OLD HOUSE but The 3 Stooges.


**
(and i bet sar2401, Gothar, STS, ncstorm and a few others too]

thanks to
^Qazulight for the taking the time as to the original  comment (plus compu'r news) and to ^Xyrus2000 for the organized reply.
Good morning with news from Antarctica:

Antarctic icebergs have surprise role in slowing warming-study
Source: Reuters - Mon, 11 Jan 2016 16:00 GMT
OSLO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The biggest icebergs breaking off Antarctica unexpectedly help to slow global warming as they melt away into the chill Southern Ocean, scientists said on Monday.
The rare Manhattan-sized icebergs, which may become more frequent in coming decades because of climate change, release a vast trail of iron and other nutrients that act as fertilisers for algae and other tiny plant-like organisms in the ocean.
These extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as they grow, a natural ally for human efforts to limit the pace of climate change blamed on man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
Ocean blooms in the wake of giant icebergs off Antarctica absorbed 10 to 40 million tonnes of carbon a year, the study estimated, roughly equivalent to annual man-made greenhouse gas emissions of countries such as Sweden or New Zealand. ...


Antarctic ice sheet has stopped expanding for the first time in four years
Source: Reuters - Mon, 11 Jan 2016 07:00 GMT
Jan 11 (Reuters) - Although the Arctic ice sheet gets all the media attention, noteworthy activity has been brewing in the Antarctic.
The Antarctic ice sheet has stopped expanding for the first time in four years, and in fact, sea ice extent has dipped below average levels. ...
240. vis0

Quoting 223. CaribBoy:

A weak cold front passed over the Northern Leewards on monday.. with no significant rain, but some interesting clouds were observed late in the afternoon : See last 4 pictures
randomly picked "...0010A.jpg"  aka "Pointe-Milou, St Barts" .
Has great hues and so  many shades of the same colour.
Skies infinitesimal ordered shades of blue and oceans dramatic vibrant hues quickly changing from one area to another, luved the view of the island's layers.

purposely opened the last img ""...0170.jpg"  aka "Departing Cold Front"
As you stated look at the last 4, cloud waves particularly  in the lower left. My fav  feature is that for some reason the manner in which you compose your  pictures (not too high of a shutter speed so one gets a touch of motion) makes one think the scene is slowly moving, stare at the last image and you'll think the clouds are slowly moving to the point that they make you feel relaxed.

Will view the rest in time as at a 49k connection, it takes time to load.

Keep up the great images, just make sure to always be safe respect nature so you can present the lovely st. Barth through your images 1 image at a time.
Interesting contrast of airmasses over Europe today, created by the jetstream (btw, yesterday we've got a pretty convective downpour in my area near Frankfurt and even a thunderstorm nearby. I like to see us catching up with precipitation this January. And over the upcoming weekend it should snow even in the plains :-)





Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex:
Low geopotentials dominate over the continent and several shortwave troughs result in marginal convective and non-convective events. On the surface, two deep cyclones will be the steering mechanisms of weather conditions over Europe this Tuesday, one of them over the North Sea and the center of the other one quickly crossing Poland, Belarus and eventually Russia. The second one is responsible for a extensive cold front that stretches from Russia all the way down to Morocco and it will force air masses, rich in moisture, to move way too south, towards the south Mediterranean basin. But while doing that, it will also feed some DMC events in Tyrrhenian and Adriatic Seas where we expect numerous rounds of convective cells.


Edit: Current pressure in Europe with the two lows (described above; named as Carolina and Daniella). Around them, regions with tight crammed isobars experience strong winds, f.e. northwestern Turkey.

Edit: Thoughts and prayers for those affected by the terrible bombing in Istanbul!
Hello there, WU! It's been awhile, but I thought I'd pop in.

It seems a little peculiar for the tropics to already be a hot topic here in January, but here we are!

Hurricane Pali is likely near peak intensity in the Central Pacific making it the earliest hurricane to ever develop in the Central Pacific!
In addition we've already witnessed our first category four equivalent cyclone out of Tropical Cyclone Ula in the southern hemisphere with many more to come as we continue into this new year.

With the Pacific having its own fun, the Atlantic has decided to join in with a non-tropical low now situated over the central Atlantic that has been traversing the North Atlantic over the past week. This low is approaching its best possible environment for development over the coming days with subtropical development definitely not out of the question! The frontal nature of the system has made the transition into a tropical system a bit more prolonged however it seems likely that we should have a brief window of opportunity for us to witness the first January tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic since 1978! The system will be slowing its southeasterly motion as the steering flow around it changes so consolidation should be enhanced. This steering should then drag the system out to the northeast as it recurves near the Azores Islands. In addition to its opportunity to consolidate further, the hybrid nature of the low should allow for the system to persevere in conditions that normal tropical cyclones would not find suitable. SST's are a mere 23C to 24C with copious amounts of dry air surrounding the entire western semicircle. With a typical tropical cyclone SST's would need to be near the 26C threshold development with a relatively moist environment. The magic these hybrid lows can work through baroclinic forces will be a very big advantage which is why odds favor development if the low can use its advantage. The NHC currently has odds at 40% of development over the next five days, while I would disagree and say odds are closer to 50%.

I have been very occupied with school, work, and other activities which has attributed to my absence here. I hope to produce another blog covering the upcoming hurricane season in the near future. I have been accepted to the University of Oklahoma where I (though I have not yet committed) plan to study.
Eumetsat's view of our Atlantic AOI:


Source for updates.
Tampa AFD:

.LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
U/L PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CUTTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND EXITING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND FLORIDA. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN U/L DISTURBANCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND COMING IN PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINED STRONG U/L SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...ROTATING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
TIMING MAY SHIFT AS SLIGHT CHANGES IN SPEED TO U/L FLOW WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT WHEN SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM U/L DISTURBANCES COME IN PHASE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. AN
AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE THURSDAY. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS AN INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 130-140 KNOTS. A L/L JET OF 40-50
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT VEERING
OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY UNDER A LOW
CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.


SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER
COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM IN FAST MOVING
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE TIME
FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO
ADVECT BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER STRENGTH OF U/L DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREA OF RAIN TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY BE PULLED NORTH IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODEL TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&
246. MahFL
Looking good for CA the next 24 hours, plenty of moisture on it's way :

247. MahFL
Currently 32F here in Orange Park, which is kind of surprising given my locations tendency to be "warm".
Quoting 244. barbamz:

Eumetsat's view of our Atlantic AOI:


Source for updates.


Could today be the day? Way less frontal than it has been the last few days.

Tentatively thinking it won't develop, though. Running out of time.
Got a way to go..

govt summary of 1998 central florida tornado outbreak. 1997 el nino http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/cntrlf l.pdf
Good Morning from south shore of Long Island New York. Nothing going on here. Rather a dull winter here. So, for fun, I am watching the lake effect snow upstate New York....lol.
Has anyone ever seen an official study done on the effect of man made structures (roads, cities, impervious ground structures, etc.) on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Point being, instead of the precipitation being absorbed into the soil, it is left exposed to air and heat to be evaporated into the atmosphere. I figure it would be hard to baseline, since it would be tough to go back and gather data from before we had all these physical structures in place, but just something I have always wondered.
Good Morning. Bright and cold this morning (28-30) in Tallahassee.........Not bad as compared to other parts of Conus but many pet owners will tell you that Winter sucks when you have to walk the dog outside every morning at 6:00 am whether rain, sleet, snow, or freezing temps..............................



Quoting 248. KoritheMan:



Could today be the day? Way less frontal than it has been the last few days.

Tentatively thinking it won't develop, though. Running out of time.

Might. Good warm 850 hPa core.
And here is Pali and the latest advisory:

WTPN31 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01C (PALI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01C (PALI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 7.8N 171.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

Quoting 252. olivojoe:

Has anyone ever seen an official study done on the effect of man made structures (roads, cities, impervious ground structures, etc.) on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Point being, instead of the precipitation being absorbed into the soil, it is left exposed to air and heat to be evaporated into the atmosphere. I figure it would be hard to baseline, since it would be tough to go back and gather data from before we had all these physical structures in place, but just something I have always wondered.
Quite the opposite. There are these people called "civil engineers" that work hard to make sure the water drains much more quickly in developed areas, as opposed to puddling and slowly sinking into the ground in the wild.
262. ariot
Quoting 252. olivojoe:

Has anyone ever seen an official study done on the effect of man made structures (roads, cities, impervious ground structures, etc.) on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Point being, instead of the precipitation being absorbed into the soil, it is left exposed to air and heat to be evaporated into the atmosphere. I figure it would be hard to baseline, since it would be tough to go back and gather data from before we had all these physical structures in place, but just something I have always wondered.


Not as you describe it exactly, but the city of Atlanta, for example, was the subject of research on urban islands and the generation or amplification of thunderstorms and lightening.

Similarly, there's quite a bit of published work on cities in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and the relationship between large developed areas and rainwater or rivers feeding the bay. That set of data, over time, was enough to spawn laws that require natural offsets before paving an area in some places. Also, Maryland was one of the first states to charge people for excessive run-off. Previously, they dumped water on the public system for free, causing the public to absorb all associated costs for the large, private paved areas. For a while they paid, until politics got involved and called it a "rain tax." I think the new governor repealed it so used car lots can off load their stormwater for free, on to all of us. You know, because socialism.


Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39°NLon: 84.35°WElev: 79ft.

Partly Cloudy

29°F

-2°C
Humidity 85%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.24 in (1023.9 mb)
Dewpoint 25°F (-4°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 12 Jan 7:53 am EST

Grabbing the jacket for the morning commute!
Quoting 245. FLWeatherFreak91:

Tampa AFD:

.LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
U/L PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CUTTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND EXITING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND FLORIDA. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN U/L DISTURBANCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND COMING IN PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINED STRONG U/L SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...ROTATING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
TIMING MAY SHIFT AS SLIGHT CHANGES IN SPEED TO U/L FLOW WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT WHEN SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM U/L DISTURBANCES COME IN PHASE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. AN
AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE THURSDAY. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS AN INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 130-140 KNOTS. A L/L JET OF 40-50
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT VEERING
OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY UNDER A LOW
CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.


SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER
COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM IN FAST MOVING
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE TIME
FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO
ADVECT BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER STRENGTH OF U/L DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREA OF RAIN TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY BE PULLED NORTH IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODEL TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&


Looks like the SPC is sleeping, they have no mention of this threat, and that's despite obvious severe parameters in the model guidance over Central and SW Florida. I'm not sure how the SPC can look at it and not mention the same thing as the NWS in Ruskin is...
265. MahFL
Quoting 259. tampabaymatt:




10 inches in California ?
AOI in the Atlantic Ocean looking more organized this morning.

Will we have a subtropical storm this evening?





Quoting 261. guygee:

Quite the opposite. There are these people called "civil engineers" that work hard to make sure the water drains much more quickly in developed areas, as opposed to puddling and slowly sinking into the ground in the wild.



Funny you say that......

I am a Civil Engineer. Although my specialty is not hydraulics, I do remember several things from school about the topic. There is still a significant amount of water retained on concrete surfaces, rooftops, etc. and remember these surfaces are likely much better heat sinks that open terrain. So when the water sits on these "hotter" surfaces, evaporation would be accelerated.

And although you are correct that a large amount of this water is drained off from these surfaces, it still absorbs some of the heat from the structures and surfaces during runoff and as a result, raising the temperatures in the staging ponds and potentially further increasing evaporation of that water instead of it being absorbed.

As I said though, speculative thought on my part, which is why I was asking if anyone has ever come across a study on this topic.
Quoting 264. Jedkins01:



Looks like the SPC is sleeping, they have no mention of this threat, and that's despite obvious severe parameters in the model guidance over Central and SW Florida. I'm not sure how the SPC can look at it and not mention the same thing as the NWS in Ruskin is...
SPC doesn't seem impressed at all. I'm thinking Ruskin is playing it safe after Saturday's event lol. I haven't checked this morning's model runs but I wouldn't be surprised if they back off based on the qpf that was just posted.
Quoting 264. Jedkins01:



Looks like the SPC is sleeping, they have no mention of this threat, and that's despite obvious severe parameters in the model guidance over Central and SW Florida. I'm not sure how the SPC can look at it and not mention the same thing as the NWS in Ruskin is...


Here's an excerpt fron the NWS Melbourne AFD...


THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BY EARLY THU AN APPROACHING WAVE
OVER THE GULF COUPLED WITH A STRONG JET IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL INDUCE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
GOMEX DURING THU. THE LTST GFS AND EC GUID HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MOVING THE MAIN LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE
AROUND DAYBREAK FRI WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT. AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN LOCAL WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILE ASCD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS OVERNIGHT FEATURE
WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION AS AN EPISODE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ROTATING STORMS IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT.
Quoting 269. FLWeatherFreak91:

SPC doesn't seem impressed at all. I'm thinking Ruskin is playing it safe after Saturday's event lol. I haven't checked this morning's model runs but I wouldn't be surprised if they back off based on the qpf that was just posted.

Here's the HWO from NWS Melbourne...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
RAPIDLY EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION AS AN EPISODE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE.

ONE CAUTION REMAINS IN THE RAPID EVOLUTION UPSTREAM IS SUBJECT TO
TIMING AND LOCATION REVISIONS BY LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED
TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AFTER MIDWEEK.
And from the Miami NWS Discussion...

THURSDAY...
THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF MODEL IS STILL SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND MOVING IT NORTHEAST INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SO AT THIS TIME...THE POPS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO LIKELY CAT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE
LATER MODEL RUNS CHANGE THERE TUNE TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
SHOWN.

Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 266. Stormwatch247:

AOI in the Atlantic Ocean looking more organized this morning.

Will we have a subtropical storm this evening?








Quoting 235. Xyrus2000:



Really? And what basis do you have for that? What's your criteria? Perhaps a link to your published analysis on the subject? Just wondering, since the subject matter experts seem to disagree with you. Even Arrhenius's model does a pretty good job and that was developed going on 120 years ago.

I attribute this to the fact that the weather is really complex and there are some pieces we still don't understand.


*sigh*

Climate is trends and averages. To illustrate:

Roll a die 100 times. Can you predict exactly what side comes up on any roll? With enough careful measurement and modelling, you might be able to. But since you don't have perfect information your error rate will still be relatively high. This is weather modelling.

Roll a die 100 times. Can you predict what the average of what the 100 rolls will be? Of course, that's trivial math, much easier to predict, and you will have a much smaller error. That's climate.

This new computer might help, it is only 2.5 times as fast in raw processing power, but it may be much faster than that with the addition of ram. (It has a lot of ram, and storage too.)

http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/11/cheyenne-clima te-supercomputer


The largest bottleneck with modern climate models is I/O. Models can only scale so far before they reach a point of diminishing returns. They'd get a much bigger kick in performance by switching to SSDs, but that doesn't help (and in fact, can harm) network saturation.

However, more ram and faster processors mean more ensemble runs can be run and a bit faster than before.

Of course to really get accurate we will need a lot more weather stations, buoys and maybe real data feeds from every airplane and ship in motion every minute of the day.


Not really. It would help weather prediction, but wouldn't appreciably affect climate modeling. Climate models are dealing with averages projected over long periods time. You might improve initial conditions with enough data, but the overall impact of any such improvement would be buried under the noise of the ensemble perturbations.

Of course that much data will be useless with only a paltry 250 percent speed increase in computing. (The 286 computer I bought in 88 was a 10 MHz machine, which was twice as fast per cycle and twice as many cycles per second as the 8080 it repalced.)"That party was nothing compared with the celebration that will take place if Martinis and his group can actually create the wonder computer they seek. Because it would harness the strange properties of quantum physics that arise in extreme conditions like those on the ultracold chip, the new computer would let a Google coder run calculations in a coffee break that would take a supercomputer of today millions of years.


That depends GREATLY on the class of problem you are talking about. Quantum computing is a big reaserchy buzz word, but like anything else it's really good for some things and not so great at others. It's just like FPGAs or GPUs. You can run certain calculations thousands of times faster on a GPU than a CPU. But you wouldn't want to run an operating system like Windows on one.

Think of computing like your toolbox. Inside your toolbox, you have a bunch of tools to make jobs easier. But would you use a sander to screw in a screw? Or a hammer to measure a length of wood? There are many different kinds of processing units out there. Some are designed to be general purpose (like the CPU in your computer) and some are designed for a specific purpose (like a DAC chip in your mp3 player). A quantum computer would be more along the lines of specialized hardware (like a DAC or GPU). But you're not going to have one sitting in your machine running Linux/Window/OSX/etc.

The software that Google has developed on ordinary computers to drive cars or answer questions could become vastly more intelligent. And earlier-stage ideas bubbling up at Google and its parent company, such as robots that can serve as emergency responders or software that can converse at a human level, might become real.
"
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/544421/googl es-quantum-dream-machine/

Now if this one come on line, then we might be able to get an understanding of what will happen. Of course we would still need all that data, but the IOT, may solve that problem for us if it doesn't become self aware.

Cheers
Qazulight


IoT makes the data problem worse, not better, and introduces a whole new set of problems (not the least of which is security).

And again, quantum computers are not magic. Especially their version which is an annealing quantum computer (as opposed to a true quantum computer). They won't spontaneously become aware anymore than your computer will. Learning and AI algorithms have been around for decades. We're seeing what appears to be "leaps and bounds" now because the hardware has reached a point where implementation of said algorithms in close to real time is now a possibility. Like any other branch of research, the theoretical side of things are figured out well in advance of implementation. Sure, these companies have added their own research and built upon the shoulders of the giants that came before them. But a number of these ideas, algorithms, and even devices have been around for quite some time. (For example, did you know the humble and ubiquitous CCD was invented in 1969?)


Eh, first I have seen the climatologist say, hotter dryer, colder wetter, hotter wetter etc. I am not saying it isn't happening. What I am seeing as one who is attempting to adapt and make financial decisions, like buy a chicken farm in Texas, no wait, hot drought will kill you. Maybe just a tree farm in Deep East Texas, no, drought is moving the dry line east, this kills the forest and leaves you with scrub oak. Maybe move north? But wait, what about the polar vortex, will that set you up for extreme weather in the Mid West?

Except for the broad models that yes we are adding energy to the climate, I have no investable intelligence from the current climate models. Now when the models can start having some actual results above random chance on predicting say, a hurricane season, which they have not and have been discontinued because the random guesses were as or more accurate, then we can have actionable intelligence.

So, as far as the IOT. We are getting the data, in fact this is the area that I am studying to move into. (My body is shutting down on me and climbing towers, folding up into airplanes and hanging out of helicopters is no longer a good idea) Today, the company I work for, (It is a big one that provides telecommunications service, I won't mention any names but the symbol looks like a big blue death star.) is storing massive amounts of data, and will be storing more. In fact all of the data from all of the connected cars will be available soon (internally). Part of the programs that are being built are ways to anonymize that data make it available via API's. I suspect that all of the air temp, barometric pressure, and humidity for every minute of every airplane flight is already being connected with location information being within a few hundred meters. The same goes for modern sea going vessels. For the airplanes, it is required for fly by wire, for the sea vessels it is required for the modern engines.

So yes IOT data will make the job of filtering data bigger, and it will make our new monster super computer too slow for the task. On the other hand, we are probing new frontiers, and we WILL build a new generation of computers and we WILL collect the data to make the models work properly.

For an example, look at what the increased resolution did for the Euro model in Hurricane tracking. These models are becoming very accurate. We can get that kind of accuracy for the climate models also. As one who has to make choices that have ramification 10 and 15 year out, I need that kind of intelligence. I have not seen it yet.

Cheers
Qazulight