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Historic Mississippi River Flood Brings Highest Crest on Record Below St. Louis

By: Jeff Masters 12:54 AM GMT on January 04, 2016

A historic and unseasonable flood has brought the highest flood levels ever recorded to the Mississippi River south of St. Louis, thanks to more than 10 inches of rain that fell over a three-day period that began Christmas Day. At least 25 deaths in Illinois and Missouri are being blamed on the flooding. The Mississippi River crested at its third highest water level on record in St.Louis on January 1. On January 2, the southward-propagating crest brought the second highest flood on record to Chester and the highest flood on record to Cape Girardeau and Thebes. On Monday, January 4, the crest is expected to be about 200 miles south of St. Louis at Caruthersville, Missouri, bringing the third highest flood ever observed there. The latest flood forecasts for the Mississippi River issued Sunday evening by NWS River Forecast Center predicted no other locations would see an all-time record crest, with crests between the 2nd and 10th highest on record expected along most of the Lower Mississippi and the lower portions of two main tributaries, the Ohio and Arkansas Rivers.


Figure 1. Precipitation over much of the drainage basin of the Mississippi River in Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and portions of surrounding states during December 2015 averaged 200 - 600% of normal (dark blue to purple colors.) Image credit: NOAA/NWS/AHPS.


Figure 2. The Mississippi River downstream of St. Louis at Thebes crested on January 2 at the highest level ever observed. Flood records at this location extend back to 1844. The sudden dips in the water levels may be due to levee breaches. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Huge stresses being put on Mississippi River levees
The record flood is putting record stresses on portions of the Mississippi River levee system. According to the Associated Press (AP), the Len Small Mississippi River levee near Miller City, IL--just north of the river's confluence with the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois--was breached Saturday, bringing the total number of levee breaches from the flood to eleven. The area affected was mostly agricultural, but about 500 people living behind the levee in the towns of Olive Branch, Hodges Park, and Unity were told to move to higher ground. The Len Small levee is a local flood control district levee that fronts the Mississippi River, and is not a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers levee.


Video 1. Aerial view of the Len Small levee break in southern Illinois on January 2, 2016. Thanks go to wunderground member beell for posting this video in my blog comments.

Andy Revkin's December 30 Dot Earth blog in the New York Times quoted Nicholas Pinter, a professor of applied geology at the University of California, Davis, who has extensively studied flood risks on the Mississippi River. Pinter was an author of a 2011 paper showing areas where surface erosion, compaction of soil or subsidence lowered levee elevations in ways that raise risks in such floods. Here’s his quote:

"The big big issue for the next couple of days is levee performance, as flood levels exceed 1993 in some locations. The current forecasts call for large levee systems like Grand Tower and Degognia and others…to be at overtopping levels. Most of the Middle Mississippi River levees are currently rated Unacceptable (like 44.5% of rated levee miles nationwide); plus there are major geotechnical issue documented by our research--subsidence and compaction and un-permitted levee modifications using road gravel that is unsuited to flood control. There is room for optimism--this flood wave is very sharp and will be days long…rather than weeks. My personal fear is that many of these levees are degraded in ways that may rear up suddenly as near-record flood levels roll through. I am very apprehensive for neighbors and colleagues and friends on the bottoms."


Figure 3. Changes in levee elevation as calculated between 1998 - 2007 along the Mississippi River near its confluence with the Ohio River near Cairo, Illinois. Red indicates places where levees along the Mississippi River have subsided in ways that increase flood risks. The maximum sinking measured was 4.1 feet. Image credit: Nicholas Pinter and Southern Illinois University.

Army Corps may be forced to open two flood structures
On January 12, the flood crest is expected to arrive in New Orleans, bringing the Mississippi River to its 17-foot flood stage in the city--just 3 feet below the tops of the levees. In past years, though, when the river has been forecast to rise to 17 feet in the city, the Army Corps of Engineers has opened up the Bonnet Carré Spillway in St. Charles Parish, which diverts water into Lake Pontchartrain and keeps the river from reaching flood stage in New Orleans. According to a December 30 news story in The Advocate, the Army Corps will make a decision by January 9 on whether or not to open the Bonnet Carré Spillway. The last time the spillway was opened in January was back in 1937, its first year of operation. There is a lower chance that the Corps will be forced to open the Morganza Floodway in Pointe Coupee Parish between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, which would divert water down the Atchafalaya River. Opening this spillway has a considerably higher cost than opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway, due to the large amount of agricultural lands that would be flooded below the Morganza Floodway. The Corps also has the option of increasing the flow of Mississippi River water into the Atchafalaya at the Old River Control Structure in Concordia Parish. Operating the Old River Control Structure in this way, though, puts stress on the structure, as I explained in my 2011 blog post, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure. The Sunday evening forecast from the NWS River Forecast Center predicted that the Mississippi River would crest at Red River Landing, where the Old River Control Structure is located, on January 18. The predicted crest of 62.5' is just 0.9' below the all-time record crest of 63.39' set on May 18, 2011, when the Corps was forced to open the Morganza Floodway in order to relieve pressure on the Old River Control Structure.

Another huge concern is what shape the levees will be in after this record January flood subsides. After the great 2011 flood, about a billion dollars was required to bring the levee system back to the state it was in before is was damaged by the flood. The Army Corps will not have much time to do repairs before the annual spring flood arrives in May on the Mississippi, so the levee system will be much more vulnerable than usual to major flooding. So far, though, the odds of major spring flooding along the Mississippi appear to be below average. The winter snow pack in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is much below average, thanks to a warm December. The water content of the snow pack on January 3, 2016 was about 20% of what was present on January 3, 2011, in advance of the great 2011 spring flood. In addition, we may be helped out by the fact that El Niño tends to cause lower-than-average precipitation over the key Mississippi drainage area of the Midwest.  See the NWS outlooks (scroll down pages to get to the precip maps) at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=02
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=03

I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when my top-ten list of 2015 weather events is scheduled to go up.

Jeff Masters
Turn Around, Don't Drown
Turn Around, Don't Drown
With all the rains, the rivers are on the rise. This is the road going to the campgrounds, picnic area, and beach of the Jacksonport State Park.
Stranded Santa
Stranded Santa
The flood waters along the Mississippi River our being fueled by flooded feeder rivers like the Kaskaskia in South Central Illinois.
IMG_0948.JPG
IMG_0948.JPG

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'd just posted this in last blog, but it really belongs in this blog.



Alexander County, IL Record Flooding Crest - 1/2/2016
StormChasingVideo
Published on Jan 2, 2016

The Mississippi River at Thebes crested early Saturday morning at a record-setting 47.74 feet, nearly 2-feet over the previous record flood stage. A levee break downstream released some of the water, thus preventing the crest from reaching the earlier forecasted levels. Still, the damage had been done across portions of Alexander County, IL where water inundated homes and communities.
nice update doc
looking forward to the top ten for sure

thanks
My word... That is alot of water DOC. I hope the levees hold and that the spring flood isn't that bad this year.
Thanks Doc.2016 is picking up right where 2015 left off and we're only the 3rd day into the first month of the year.We will be seeing lots more action where that came from....
Thanks for the update Dr Masters. Good luck to those in flood areas and ones further downstream.
Thanks for the Update, Vert scary mess there....
Is the first storm going negative tilt? Looks like snow flurries on Mammoth Mountain already.

Storm must be negative tilt. Clouds running parallel to coast, needs a kicker to push it east and inland...but rain getting closer.

Quoting 8. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Is the first storm going negative tilt? Looks like snow flurries on Mammoth Mountain already.




Some in the Sierras, Monterrey looks wet. Satellite looked like we should have had some, but the ground is still dry.
Link

edit: spelling
Quoting 10. chasSoCal:



Some in the Sierras, Monterrey looks wet. Satellite looked like we should have had some, but the ground is still dry.
Link

edit: spelling


When they go negative tilt, some East/Southeast air flow gets drawn into the system which is usually drier air and it will delay onset of precip or cause virga, where the rain dries on the way to the surface.
Quoting 1. Skyepony:
I'd just posted this in last blog, but it really belongs in this blog.



Alexander County, IL Record Flooding Crest - 1/2/2016
StormChasingVideo
Published on Jan 2, 2016

The Mississippi River at Thebes crested early Saturday morning at a record-setting 47.74 feet, nearly 2-feet over the previous record flood stage. A levee break downstream released some of the water, thus preventing the crest from reaching the earlier forecasted levels. Still, the damage had been done across portions of Alexander County, IL where water inundated homes and communities.


Here's one to go with it, Skye. This is the "Len Small" break downstream from Thebes. This is on a local flood control district levee that fronts the Mississippi River (not a "USACE" levee).

Len Small Levee Break in southern Illinois-Alexander County

Round 1 incoming
The whole Mississippi river system sounds like it's of borrowed time. Of course, so is California, and lots of other places as well.
Quoting 10. chasSoCal:



Some in the Sierras, Monterrey looks wet. Satellite looked like we should have had some, but the ground is still dry.
Link

edit: spelling


They said earlier the air was very dry and it was taking time to saturate the column.
Quoting 14. chasSoCal:

The whole Mississippi river system sounds like it's of borrowed time. Of course, so is California, and lots of other places as well.


All the major cities in FL are too from a huge Cat5 hurricane.
Quoting 392. barbamz:


Uh oh, today on German island of Juist.


I brought this forward from the last blog.

That looks like what our commute will be like tomorrow morning (Monday) here in the Willamette Valley. I awoke this morning to about 1/2" of snow on the ground (in the South hills of Salem) and as the day went along it changed to freezing rain. I went out about 7:30 PM and there is around 1/4" of ice on everything. It's supposed to change to pure rain by around 10:00 AM tomorrow morning and it should be all cleared up by the evening commute. Unfortunately I have an important 8:00 AM meeting at work that I can't miss so I'll have to give it a shot in the morning.
It is only a matter of time before Florida has a target on it's back from a major hurricane.If they manage to make it this year again going unscathed I will be truly amazed.So much of the state has built up since 04/05.We brought a vacation home recently so I hope the luck continues into this year :)
Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

It is only a matter of time before Florida has a target on it's back from a major hurricane.If they manage to make it this year again going unscathed I will be truly amazed.So much of the state has built up since 04/05.We brought a vacation home recently so I hope the luck continues into this year :)


The evil side of me kinda disagrees with you. I want to see the trough/recurve/"my memory of hurricanes not recurving is somehow empirical" crowd bow out in shame as they are soundly defeated by the power of science. :)

Nothing irritates me more than people that don't know anything about science or hurricane climatology coincidentally being right in the end not through actual knowledge or empiricism, but through their own biases and preconceived notions of how weather actually works.

Snowman looks like he has Angel wings .... gonna be Cool and Rainy for awhile....
Quoting 20. KoritheMan:



The evil side of me kinda disagrees with you. I want to see the trough/recurve/"my memory of hurricanes not recurving is somehow empirical" crowd bow out in shame as they are soundly defeated by the power of science. :)

Nothing irritates me more than people that don't know anything about science or hurricane climatology coincidentally being right in the end not through actual knowledge or empiricism, but through their own biases and preconceived notions of how weather actually works.


Captain Trough will save the day.
Quoting 22. Astrometeor:



Captain Trough will save the day.


omfgnotthat.jpg
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
234 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016


FLZ020>024-030-GAZ132>136-149>153-162>165-042100-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FZ.W.0001.160105T0700Z-160105T1400Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-UNION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRA NTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...JENNINGS...WHITE SPRINGS...
LIVE OAK...LAKE CITY...WATERTOWN...MACCLENNY...HILLIARD...
LAKE BUTLER...DOUGLAS...HAZLEHURST...ALMA...BAXLEY...JE SUP...
PEARSON...WILLACOOCHEE...WAYCROSS...BLACKSHEAR... NAHUNTA...
HOBOKEN...EVERETT...THALMANN...MAYDAY...NEEDMORE. ..STATENVILLE...
HOMERVILLE...FOLKSTON...HOMELAND...WOODBINE
234 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO ENSURE TENDER
VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS HAVE ADEQUATE PROTECTION FROM THE
COLD TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS. APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO ENSURE TENDER VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS HAVE ADEQUATE
PROTECTION FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES. YOUNG CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY AND THE HOMELESS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE COLD.
TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT THEM.

&&
Still something there, but a little more reasonable:
26. vis0
BBBrrrreaking nnnnews frrrrom NYccccccity fffirst tttttime itssss underrrrr 32° FFFFreaking  dddddegreeees

back to the more serious observations of flooding happening and to occur.

Good morning. Well, the “rain event” that was supposed to occur yesterday across C FL turned out to be yet another total bust for the Tampa Bay area. The NWS was calling for widespread 1” QPF, and I only picked up 0.12”. The official reporting station at Tampa airport recorded 0.18”. As Jedkins noted earlier, if it wasn’t for such a wet summer, we’d surely be in drought status by now. I’ve only received 3.71” since October 1st. Also, I have not had a day with over 1” of rain since Sept. 6th.

At least things are finally cooling down some though, which will put less stress on grass and plants.
Vis, simply amazes me. Growing up in the 70's & 80's little did I realize that we (NY/NJ) were living through some of the coldest winters in the last 50 years. Help us Dr. Frank Field. Boy did I get the shaft. So many mornings waiting on the corner for that bus in the bitter cold darkness. Single digits meant it was too cold to ride the bike. Teens maybe if no wind. All this wearing Kmart polyester outerwear and cotton tube socks. Many mornings riding along Ocean Ave watching the steam rise off the Atlantic, because it's water temp was a relatively balmy 39F.

Strangely enough, we here in Florence,SC have already dipped below 30F about a month before you. Tonight forecast low is 26F, possibly wiping out my impatiens which has survived winter thus far (thriving actually).

Crazy Eddie...His prices are insane.

Quoting 26. vis0:

BBBrrrreaking nnnnews frrrrom NYccccccity fffirst tttttime itssss underrrrr 32° FFFFreaking  dddddegreeees

back to the more serious observations of flooding happening and to occur.


Good Morning. Back from a 2 week vacation spent between North Florida and South Florida; you would never know that it was Winter in Miami last week on South Beach..............Tons of folks in shorts and t-shirts and the beaches were packed with locals and tourists enjoying the warm sun (many there for the Orange Bowl) and tying to find a parking spot.......................

Here are the high temps today across the Nation...........That cool and wet El Nino pattern was in place last week for many parts of the South (with the exception of South Florida) but things have dried up again along the Gulf Coast region:




Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

I live 200 miles southwest of St.Louis
CFSv2 for October. El-Nino continuing into Fall would be just unheard of. Something is really really off with these Global patterns to give the possibility of a 3 to 4 year El-Nino. BTW CFSv2 has El-Nino rebuilding next Fall something to watch as it was the CFSv2 that starting showing this last year in January.

October
Very strong WWB is now causing a new OKW to develop. This is something you typically don't expect with a decaying El-Nino.



WWB
Quoting 29. tampabaymatt:

Good morning. Well, the “rain event” that was supposed to occur yesterday across C FL turned out to be yet another total bust for the Tampa Bay area. The NWS was calling for widespread 1” QPF, and I only picked up 0.12”. The official reporting station at Tampa airport recorded 0.18”. As Jedkins noted earlier, if it wasn’t for such a wet summer, we’d surely be in drought status by now. I’ve only received 3.71” since October 1st. Also, I have not had a day with over 1” of rain since Sept. 6th.

At least things are finally cooling down some though, which will put less stress on grass and plants.



Yep, it dripped for hours to give me about the same amount.
I don't quite understand how the Chesapeake Bay impacts weather this time of year as you get up around B'more and up 95 heading to Delaware/Philly, but it's weird.

The water up here is 45-50 degrees, and earlier the air temp was in the upper 20s. Now we have these strange clouds, but only over the water. I wish I could get out and photograph them.

I've lived "close" to the bay in the past, but now I'm about half a mile from it all day. I probably need to learn more about the impact on the weather, rather than just observations.
How can the current event be called 'historic' when, over the past few days, a small number of the forum's self-proclaimed Flood Experts (thanks, Google!) have chimed in to remind us all that, since the Mississippi has overrun its banks in the past, the current recordbreaking mid-winter flooding is of absolutely no particular interest, concern, or consequence? It is, we're told, just One of Those Things That Happen From Time To Time (even though it's never actually happened before in recorded history, but that's apparently a minor point).

Anyway: officially, a quarter-inch of rain fell in Naples yesterday, while my gauge says we got closer to 3/4 of an inch. Either way, a nice little buffer to have for the coming dry months. If they happen.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 for October. El-Nino continuing into Fall would be just unheard of. Something is really really off with these Global patterns to give the possibility of a 3 to 4 year El-Nino. BTW CFSv2 has El-Nino rebuilding next Fall something to watch as it was the CFSv2 that starting showing this last year in January.

October



Omg, please no!!!
Holy Cow!!! There's some kind of huge, blindingly bright light up in the sky this morning!!! Looks like a giant meteor just hanging in the sky!!!! We're all gonna die!!!!! :-)

This is the first actual sunny day since December 21, something not usual in the Sunny Southland. It has more resembled Cleveland than Alabama the past two weeks. Instead of the usual dead brown look of winter, it looks like the fields of Ireland here today. I wish my lawn was this green in summer.

In more serious news, cheap oil is about to get more expensive. Saudi Arabia executed a Sunni imam and 46 of his closest friends Sunday for "terrorism". In retaliation, a well organized "mob" attacked the Saudi embassy in Teheran, a favorite tactic in Iran when they aren't happy, as police stood by and took no action to stop it. In retaliation, the Saudis, Bahrain, and Sudan severed diplomatic relations with Iran. In retaliation, the Saudi police are reportedly in a running gun battle with Shiite gunmen in an eastern province closest to Iran, one that has a majority Shiite population. Oil is up 3% (and the Dow is down 3%) so far, and the only thing holding oil back is China came in with bad manufacturing numbers for the tenth straight month. Geopolitical events are likely to have more of an effect than the Paris accords in carbon reduction in the near future.
Quoting 36. ariot:

I don't quite understand how the Chesapeake Bay impacts weather this time of year as you get up around B'more and up 95 heading to Delaware/Philly, but it's weird.

The water up here is 45-50 degrees, and earlier the air temp was in the upper 20s. Now we have these strange clouds, but only over the water. I wish I could get out and photograph them.

I've lived "close" to the bay in the past, but now I'm about half a mile from it all day. I probably need to learn more about the impact on the weather, rather than just observations.
Relatively cooler air flowing over relatively warmer water creates low clouds and fog. If there's enough cold air coming from the right direction with enough lift, it snows. Look up the snow belt in northern Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York to see why you don't want that to happen.
Quoting 38. CaribBoy:



Omg, please no!!!
There's only place I read about a possibility of a three to four year long El Nino. It wasn't at any of the scientific sites I usually visit for El Nino information. React accordingly. :-)
Quoting 29. tampabaymatt:

Good morning. Well, the “rain event” that was supposed to occur yesterday across C FL turned out to be yet another total bust for the Tampa Bay area. The NWS was calling for widespread 1” QPF, and I only picked up 0.12”. The official reporting station at Tampa airport recorded 0.18”. As Jedkins noted earlier, if it wasn’t for such a wet summer, we’d surely be in drought status by now. I’ve only received 3.71” since October 1st. Also, I have not had a day with over 1” of rain since Sept. 6th.

At least things are finally cooling down some though, which will put less stress on grass and plants.

Yes, another failed rain prediction there. The next trough coming through here today is too dry to kick off any rain, even when it gets to Florida, but it should provide a reinforcing shot of cold air at least. Best chance for rain is probably next Sunday, but the details of that are still pretty hazy. This is one time I'll take some dry weather. The Alabama River is still high but finally below flood stage today. My phone battery has been getting killed with all the flood warnings of the past week. :-)
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 for October. El-Nino continuing into Fall would be just unheard of. Something is really really off with these Global patterns to give the possibility of a 3 to 4 year El-Nino. BTW CFSv2 has El-Nino rebuilding next Fall something to watch as it was the CFSv2 that starting showing this last year in January.

October




you where right about this EL Nino whats not get a head of are self please whats take it day by day
Quoting 38. CaribBoy:



Omg, please no!!!



omg yes dont you love it you may nevere see rain again has it been all dryed up what well you do now
Quoting 38. CaribBoy:



Omg, please no!!!
I remember the that model incorrectly modeled January 2014 wrong.It was forecasting mild weather for most of the east coast and as history would show us that was far from the case.
Quoting 17. riverat544:


I brought this forward from the last blog.

That looks like what our commute will be like tomorrow morning (Monday) here in the Willamette Valley. I awoke this morning to about 1/2" of snow on the ground (in the South hills of Salem) and as the day went along it changed to freezing rain. I went out about 7:30 PM and there is around 1/4" of ice on everything. It's supposed to change to pure rain by around 10:00 AM tomorrow morning and it should be all cleared up by the evening commute. Unfortunately I have an important 8:00 AM meeting at work that I can't miss so I'll have to give it a shot in the morning.
I hope you made it to your meeting safe and sound. There has been a pretty deep temperature inversion over the valleys there for the past couple of days which creates ideal icing conditions. Some warmer air off the Pacific should solve that problem today.

The video does not show road deicing being done with the usual Teutonic efficiency. It's going to be a slow response time for the krankenwagen if that lady with the bucket of sand (or maybe salt?) has to run out ahead of it all day. :-)
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 for October. El-Nino continuing into Fall would be just unheard of. Something is really really off with these Global patterns to give the possibility of a 3 to 4 year El-Nino. BTW CFSv2 has El-Nino rebuilding next Fall something to watch as it was the CFSv2 that starting showing this last year in January.

October



Remember the Spring predictability barrier, and that it's not even spring yet. While nothing would be too surprising in the new climate we've made for ourselves, it is way too early to put any stock in the CFS fall forecast. It's probably overreacting to the current WWB.


So much for a "pattern change" It'll be the same ol' same ol' pattern we've had this winter.Long warm spells with quick cold shots.Still waiting on dominant cold that Joe Bastardi and the likes have hyped up that would take over January and absolutely destroy any memory of the warm December we just had.Winter gear is still collecting dust in the basement.The most snow we've mustered up this winter? flurries.
what a beautiful day e cen fl.
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:



So much for a "pattern change" It'll be the same ol' same ol' pattern we've had this winter.Long warm spells with quick cold shots.Still waiting on dominant cold that Joe Bastardi and the likes have hyped up that would take over January and absolutely destroy any memory of the warm December we just had.Winter gear is still collecting dust in the basement.The most snow we've mustered up this winter? flurries.



its pay back time for the E coast the E coast is having what CA had for last winter dominant high pressure and little ch for a pattern change i love it its all about the West cost this winter
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:



So much for a "pattern change" It'll be the same ol' same ol' pattern we've had this winter.Long warm spells with quick cold shots.Still waiting on dominant cold that Joe Bastardi and the likes have hyped up that would take over January and absolutely destroy any memory of the warm December we just had.Winter gear is still collecting dust in the basement.The most snow we've mustered up this winter? flurries.


You'll need winter coats tomorrow. This cold shot will be stronger than anything in December/January/February of 1997-98. It will indeed be short lived.

Quoting 50. Tazmanian:




its pay back time for the E coast the E coast is having what CA had for last winter dominant high pressure and little ch for a pattern change i love it its all about the West cost this winter


At least two Winters in a row. I know the Great Lakes and the East Coast has had brutally cold Winters the past few years.
I can still remember seeing the images of the frozen over Great Lakes. I think that was two years ago if my memory is working correctly.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Holy Cow!!! There's some kind of huge, blindingly bright light up in the sky this morning!!! Looks like a giant meteor just hanging in the sky!!!! We're all gonna die!!!!! :-)

This is the first actual sunny day since December 21, something not usual in the Sunny Southland. It has more resembled Cleveland than Alabama the past two weeks. Instead of the usual dead brown look of winter, it looks like the fields of Ireland here today. I wish my lawn was this green in summer.

In more serious news, cheap oil is about to get more expensive. Saudi Arabia executed a Sunni imam and 46 of his closest friends Sunday for "terrorism". In retaliation, a well organized "mob" attacked the Saudi embassy in Teheran, a favorite tactic in Iran when they aren't happy, as police stood by and took no action to stop it. In retaliation, the Saudis, Bahrain, and Sudan severed diplomatic relations with Iran. In retaliation, the Saudi police are reportedly in a running gun battle with Shiite gunmen in an eastern province closest to Iran, one that has a majority Shiite population. Oil is up 3% (and the Dow is down 3%) so far, and the only thing holding oil back is China came in with bad manufacturing numbers for the tenth straight month. Geopolitical events are likely to have more of an effect than the Paris accords in carbon reduction in the near future.


The sun and drying were welcome in DC too. Only a few days of cool sun greatly improved the quality of most of my greens. I picked most of the broccoli (a lot!) yesterday in anticipation of lethal cold tonight and tomorrow.
Here's last year
February 19th
"Nea at 37"
Some of the theories that you comment on might be a bit beyond the average social commenters, after all they may yet to have to learn to know the difference between January, IE, mid Winter and May, IE late spring.

Meanwhile back on the greater Global picture, the temp anomalies are looking quite "awesome" as the average fish in the pond might say.

I cant paste a link or picture on this computer as its does not recognise modern things. Take a look on the main blog heading page.

(Later was forced to turn on a laptop to get this map paste.)



Sent form a dusty 13 year old XP computer with a partially broken screen!
One day I might get to see one of these Eye Pad things.

@53 georgevandenberghe- there's a pic of my broccoli on my blog, it's a garden blog, would be honored to have you come visit.
Quoting 30. HaoleboySurfEC:

Vis, simply amazes me. Growing up in the 70's & 80's little did I realize that we (NY/NJ) were living through some of the coldest winters in the last 50 years. Help us Dr. Frank Field. Boy did I get the shaft. So many mornings waiting on the corner for that bus in the bitter cold darkness. Single digits meant it was too cold to ride the bike. Teens maybe if no wind. All this wearing Kmart polyester outerwear and cotton tube socks. Many mornings riding along Ocean Ave watching the steam rise off the Atlantic, because it's water temp was a relatively balmy 39F.

Strangely enough, we here in Florence,SC have already dipped below 30F about a month before you. Tonight forecast low is 26F, possibly wiping out my impatiens which has survived winter thus far (thriving actually).

Crazy Eddie...His prices are insane.




That was '76/'77. The back bays around South Jersey froze, in many places solid enough to walk on. Years later, when I was working at Channel Home Center in Flourtown, PA, I started chatting with a fairly obviously wealthy man. Turns out he was in AC that winter, with a pretty good credit report. He was sitting on a dock, watching the ice go up and down, and feeling the dock start to shift a little. He said he thought about it for about half a minute, went to his nearest bank branch and took out the largest loan he could, and bought all the dock piles he could find.

That winter made him very, very wealthy. I'm not one to judge whether he jacked up prices or not, but even with a reasonable mark-up, he made himself quite a haul. That winter destroyed a huge number of the docks and slips (and not a few fishing boats also.)

Those were some really hard years for the Jersey Shore. And cold too - most mornings to get to school I had to walk from my mom's apartment office to AC Friends School (about half a mile away).
For those that might still be interested:

NTSB releases photos showing El Faro in final resting place Link

OKLAHOMA - NEW RECORD WETTEST YEAR & NEW STATE RECORD MOST RAINFALL AT ANY LOCATION IN A YEAR: 2015 is the record wettest calendar year in Oklahoma, with a statewide average rainfall of 53.88" / 136.9 cm. The record all-time greatest 1-calendar-year rainfall anywhere in Oklahoma of 89.69" / 227.8 cm was set at Daisy in 2015.

Link
thanks capeflorida- my coworker lost her husband on the ElFaro. It's been hard, here in Jacksonville, dealing with it.
Quoting 39. sar2401:
In more serious news, cheap oil is about to get more expensive. Saudi Arabia executed a Sunni imam and 46 of his closest friends Sunday for "terrorism". In retaliation, a well organized "mob" attacked the Saudi embassy in Teheran, a favorite tactic in Iran when they aren't happy, as police stood by and took no action to stop it. In retaliation, the Saudis, Bahrain, and Sudan severed diplomatic relations with Iran. In retaliation, the Saudi police are reportedly in a running gun battle with Shiite gunmen in an eastern province closest to Iran, one that has a majority Shiite population. Oil is up 3% (and the Dow is down 3%) so far, and the only thing holding oil back is China came in with bad manufacturing numbers for the tenth straight month. Geopolitical events are likely to have more of an effect than the Paris accords in carbon reduction in the near future.


100% agree on your assessment on the geopolitical events > paris accords. That event coupled with some other geopolitical risks (ISIS using Trump in their promos, etc.) is making for some very nervy leadership. Let's hope they realize the silliness of their games. So much risk out there it's hard to surmise that we don't see an eventful (negatively) 2016. Use that UN for diplomacy!!

Here in CA, we're hoping that a high-pressure doesn't re-develop off the coast so we can welcome in that parade of rain into the central valley. Snow levels are nice, but nowhere near what we need for summer run-off/drought risks. A continuation of El Nino into next year would be very bad globally and somewhat welcoming for CA. Let's see how this crazy year shapes up.

What I'm going to try to do (I'm not about to just not do anything and watch everything unfold) is assimilate climate metrics that connect to the internet (from personal weather networks, etc.) I know there's stuff out there, but I have what I believe is unique idea and execution plan for presenting the metrics and giving it to policy makers/civic leaders to take action on.


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

12:00 PM EST Monday 4 January 2016




Condition:

Partly Cloudy

Pressure:

30.4 inches

Tendency:

rising

Visibility:

15 miles

Temperature:

10.0°F

Dewpoint:

-4.0°F

Humidity:

53%

Wind:

N 16 mph

Wind Chill:

-7
Quoting 8. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Is the first storm going negative tilt? Looks like snow flurries on Mammoth Mountain already.



"Negative tilt" is a term describing the upper level flow. It's actually ideal for spinning up storms. In this instance, it's the surface and midlevel flows that are dry because they're coming off the land. This is in part a matter of the orientation of the jet and the location of the jet max. If and when the core of the jet moves closer, even the lower level flows will be moist as they'll be coming from a long fetch off the ocean.
Total of 0.60" 15 miles east of you. Not bad for January.


Quoting 37. Neapolitan:

How can the current event be called 'historic' when, over the past few days, a small number of the forum's self-proclaimed Flood Experts (thanks, Google!) have chimed in to remind us all that, since the Mississippi has overrun its banks in the past, the current recordbreaking mid-winter flooding is of absolutely no particular interest, concern, or consequence? It is, we're told, just One of Those Things That Happen From Time To Time (even though it's never actually happened before in recorded history, but that's apparently a minor point).

Anyway: officially, a quarter-inch of rain fell in Naples yesterday, while my gauge says we got closer to 3/4 of an inch. Either way, a nice little buffer to have for the coming dry months. If they happen.

Nearly continuous circumpolar jet.
Good evening, and thanks for the update on this awful flooding, Doc.

Latest sad weather news from Europe:
Poland cold snap toll rises to 21 dead
BBC News, 1 hour ago
One of Poland's deadliest-ever cold snaps killed at least 21 people over the weekend, with temperatures falling to -18C (-0.4F), officials say. ...

Cold weather hobbles 1/3 of Berlin police cars
The Local (Germany), Published: 04 Jan 2016 16:19 GMT 01:00
Berlin police had to do without 90 patrol cars on Monday as the sudden cold snap hitting north-eastern Germany left them stuck in their parking lots ....

CNN report: Syrian refugees face harsh winter in Lebanon

Good news for winter lovers in the Alps:
Snow ends drought for Swiss ski resorts
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 04 Jan 2016 10:46 GMT 01:00

Europe shivers in freezing weather
BBC weather video, 4 January 2016 Last updated at 16:35
After an unseasonably warm December, Eastern Europe has finally received the arctic air expected of the winter months. BBC Weather's Ben Rich reports for Global.


Current (saved) temps in Europe, still showing the strong bisection of warm west and cold east (but the mild drift from the Atlantic should win the battle at least in Germany the next days).
69. vis0
Quoting blogbyte:: ~LINE30::
"So far, though, the odds of major spring flooding along the Mississippi appear to be below average. The winter snow pack in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is much below average, ..."

NOT ALARMING JUST THINKING OUT LOUD.
My worry are storms that might re-curve (retrograde) off the North Atlantic. Though El Niño begins to "weaken" still has enough "umph" (ENSO1 energy/power @1.5 to 2.0 ENSO2 anomaly scale)) to send moisture plumes towards ~Florida.  Then IF LOWs off the Eastern Coast wrap that moisture up and retrograde the snow (worse rains) towards Southern Canada just north of or near of ^Keeperofthegates.  That water will then find itself heading towards the Mississippi basin and thus maintain a long term pressure on the levees not allowing for a weaker area to dry out and/or be repaired. If NE LOWS retrogrades enough so the LOWs western quad makes over to the western side of the Appalachian, a similar effect on the levees.

i feel the the Doctor's words "so far" has a feeling that that "horizon MODELS" might be aligning  in showing an opportunity (not fact yet) of more "heavy" rains ~Latter Winter 2015/2016.

Then THINK if this is the "drier" season and Spring is usually the wetter season, people in the WORLD (N. Hem. & S. Hem.) should be practicing how to be ready / prepared for flooding.   NOT to scare anyone but to be ready! Again watch the VID i linked on my blog...ah here the links (VID title:: "FM2_Dont_Wait_national_TV_HD")::
English::
http://www.ready.gov/

Espanol::
http://www.ready.gov/es

As the "FM2_Dont_Wait_national_TV_HD"  VIDs shows, ¿when is it time to talk as to natural disasters?, as they are happening or before. (wish the gov had also ONE VID with several languages spelling out / overlaying on VID  "Now?", in each language, it would help people of different cultures find a subject to join in on and figure out by themselves (how humans learn best) that different cultures of human beings have more in common than some think.  In turn help humanity get together in cleaning up any mess humanity makes.  But i could be 99.9% wrong...

==================

1https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southe rn_Oscillation

2http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/ens o/enso-essentials/






More flooding in the UK, this time for central-eastern Scotland who are currently under an amber (second highest level) warning for rain:





Link

More rain to come later tonight/into tomorrow, with 2-3" expected in lower lying areas and up to 6" in the hills and mountains. A lot of yellow weather warnings for rain across other parts of the UK for the next few days too, so there's potential for more flooding elsewhere. This winter sure has been a miserable one for large parts of the UK so far.
72. vis0

Quoting 69. vis0:
in comment #69 the 1 and 2 after ENSO where to be superscripted (little numbers above the regular sized characters)  but i must've goofed so do not confuse it with ENSO areas One through four.
Greetings from Finland everyone! This week will be one of the coldest in recent years since last year we didn't even have much of a winter here in southern Finland. Temperatures will range from -20C to -30C in south to -20C to -40C in northern and eastern parts. December and November were one of the warmest ever here. New December high of Finland is 11.3C and 14.3C for November.

The new record amount of precipitation was also set, 1242 millimeters in 2015 in Paljakka. 2015 was also the warmest year ever recorded here. The mean temperature of entire Finland was 4.2C while the average mean is 1.9C. The funny thing is we had 2 very chilly summer months and some days in December had higher highs than those of June. So it's easy to "bet" we can reach 5C easily if we have a warmer than normal summer + warm winter and autumn like last year :)
Quoting 73. Arcticstuff:

Greetings from Finland everyone! ...

Very welcome to this blog! And thanks for the report about the very weird weather in Finland. Hope you've got a nice warm house these days!

Quoting 70. Envoirment:

More flooding in the UK ... This winter sure has been a miserable one for large parts of the UK so far.

Totally agree; sad pics. British Isles got penalized by weather last and already this year.
@73 ArcticStuff- Welcome to Wundergound!
Quoting 70. Envoirment:

More flooding in the UK, this time for central-eastern Scotland who are currently under an amber (second highest level) warning for rain:





Link

More rain to come later tonight/into tomorrow, with 2-3" expected in lower lying areas and up to 6" in the hills and mountains. A lot of yellow weather warnings for rain across other parts of the UK for the next few days too, so there's potential for more flooding elsewhere. This winter sure has been a miserable one for large parts of the UK so far.


Historic castle teeters on brink of disaster after river bursts banks and sweeps away land'
Many more inches of rain expected soon.



Link
Quoting 38. CaribBoy:



Omg, please no!!!
Very low chance of something like that happening.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 for October. El-Nino continuing into Fall would be just unheard of. Something is really really off with these Global patterns to give the possibility of a 3 to 4 year El-Nino. BTW CFSv2 has El-Nino rebuilding next Fall something to watch as it was the CFSv2 that starting showing this last year in January.

October

CFS is been doing this for the last 4 years.
La nina
Quoting 69. vis0:

Then IF LOWs off the Eastern Coast wrap that moisture up and retrograde the snow (worse rains) towards Southern Canada just north of or near of ^Keeperofthegates.  That water will then find itself heading towards the Mississippi basin


Nowhere in Canada drains into the Mississippi. East of the Rockies, Canada drains into the Great Lakes and then to the Atlantic via the St. Lawrence or north to Hudson's Bay and the Arctic Ocean.
Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago
Annually-averaged AMO index at its lowest value on record (since 1950).

Michael Ventrice Retweeted Philip Klotzbach
Even if a La Nina evolves in 2016, the Atlantic may not be in a multidecal state favorable for a big Hurricane yea
Quoting 80. science101:


Nowhere in Canada drains into the Mississippi. East of the Rockies, Canada drains into the Great Lakes and then to the Atlantic via the St. Lawrence or north to Hudson's Bay and the Arctic Ocean.


How about the Milk River in Alberta and the Poplar River in Saskatchewan? Both are tributaries of the Missouri.

curiosity question: it seems to me that a lot more rivers than not drain toward the equator vs draining toward the poles.

is this just a coincidence?
Quoting 74. barbamz:


Very welcome to this blog! And thanks for the report about the very weird weather in Finland. Hope you've got a nice warm house these days!


Thanks! Yeah the houses in Finland are built mainly for winter time so you can probably imagine they are not very nice in hot summers since most of the people still don't have AC (it wasn't really necessary since the heatwaves used to be short). Summer 2010 was the craziest thing ever with our the new record high temp of above 37C/99F and that's when I Finally got AC!
85. vis0

Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

It is only a matter of time before Florida has a target on it's back from a major hurricane.If they manage to make it this year again going unscathed I will be truly amazed.So much of the state has built up since 04/05.We brought a vacation home recently so I hope the luck continues into this year :)
uh, sadly your forgot the "s" (pl.)


 .. [zilly]are you using the refurbished keyboard of the wxu member that had  the broken space-bar ?[zilly]
Quoting 83. redux:

curiosity question: it seems to me that a lot more rivers than not drain toward the equator vs draining toward the poles.

is this just a coincidence?


From any given point that is not on the equator and not at a pole, there is more surface area on Earth per latitude range towards the equator than towards the nearest pole. Given a point that is half way between the equator and the north pole, at 45 N, a river that is (hypothetically) going in a straight line, initially due east or due west, would follow a great circle. A great circle with its northernmost point at 45 N would be running due east & west at that point, but would proceed southward and end up at 45 S at its southernmost point. A fixed "line" of latitude that isn't at the equator isn't a great circle, but continuously curves towards the nearest pole. So traveling 100 km / miles in a straight-line (not fixed compass) random direction from somewhere that is at least that far from the equator and at least that far from the nearest pole, would more likely result in being closer to the equator compared to the starting point than closer to the nearest pole compared to the starting point. I don't know how important or relevant this is to the river issue.
Quoting 58. capeflorida:

For those that might still be interested:

NTSB releases photos showing El Faro in final resting place Link



There was something about this on 60 Minutes last night, or so they advertised, I was watching Football.
Quoting 56. aquak9:

@53 georgevandenberghe- there's a pic of my broccoli on my blog, it's a garden blog, would be honored to have you come visit.



Uploading pictures has been broken for me for two months at least. I've got some good ones :-(
Quoting 86. DCSwithunderscores:



From any given point that is not on the equator and not at a pole, there is more surface area on Earth per latitude range towards the equator than towards the nearest pole. Given a point that is half way between the equator and the north pole, at 45 N, a river that is (hypothetically) going in a straight line, initially due east or due west, would follow a great circle. A great circle with its northernmost point at 45 N would be running due east & west at that point, but would proceed southward and end up at 45 S at its southernmost point. A fixed "line" of latitude that isn't at the equator isn't a great circle, but continuously curves towards the nearest pole. So traveling 100 km / miles in a straight-line (not fixed compass) random direction from somewhere that is at least that far from the equator and at least that far from the nearest pole, would more likely result in being closer to the equator compared to the starting point than closer to the nearest pole compared to the starting point.


Just to piggyback, there's also a lot more moisture in the air, and (on average at least), more precipitation closer to the equator.

Quoting 60. aquak9:

thanks capeflorida- my coworker lost her husband on the ElFaro. It's been hard, here in Jacksonville, dealing with it.


El Faro Search Tape
Quoting 87. PedleyCA:


There was something about this on 60 Minutes last night, or so they advertised, I was watching Football.


DVR it......was a very good show.
Quoting 83. redux:

curiosity question: it seems to me that a lot more rivers than not drain toward the equator vs draining toward the poles.

is this just a coincidence?


Actually, If you can imagine a tennis ball covered with water, and then the ball rotating, you can see instantly that the water will tend to go toward 'the equator'. Simple as that~
Storm #1 in San Diego= Drip drip drip.........what a washout, although I am glad Tijuana got .55". Grand total near moi= 0.01 Really not even a drip drip drip :(
Quoting 92. MontanaZephyr:



Actually, If you can imagine a tennis ball covered with water, and then the ball rotating, you can see instantly that the water will tend to go toward 'the equator'. Simple as that~

Not sure it's true. For example, many major rivers in Russia flow toward the Pole. Then there's the Nile. Lots of rivers also go east and west.
Quoting 89. TimSoCal:



Just to piggyback, there's also a lot more moisture in the air, and (on average at least), more precipitation closer to the equator.



nice graphic....source?
Quoting 54. Sfloridacat5:

Here's last year
February 19th


As of today, the Lakes are virtually ice-free.

http://www.weather.gov/images/cle/ICE/dist9_thick ness.jpg (Dec.29, 2015 chart)
Quoting 82. kestrel68:



How about the Milk River in Alberta and the Poplar River in Saskatchewan? Both are tributaries of the Missouri.




OK, you are correct. There is a strip along the border in AB and SK that drains into the Missouri, though the vast majority of the territory of those provinces drains into Lake Winnipeg, which drains into Hudson's Bay, or into Lake Athabaska, which drains into the Mackenzie River to the Arctic Ocean. I would bet that the contribution of Canada to the Mississippi is a tiny fraction of its total flow.
Quoting 95. BayFog:


nice graphic....source?


MIMIC
Quoting 91. HurricaneHunterJoey:



DVR it......was a very good show.


DVR, nope don't have one... VCR maybe??? ...lol and whats with the Joey at the end?
Quoting 94. BayFog:


Not sure it's true. For example, many major rivers in Russia flow toward the Pole. Then there's the Nile. Lots of rivers also go east and west.


Much of Canada drains north and the major drainage of South America outside the Amazon Basis is the River Plata, which runs south towards the pole. The Amazon more or less runs due east. Drainage has to do with elevation not the spin of the earth.
Quoting 100. PedleyCA:



DVR, nope don't have one... VCR maybe??? ...lol and whats with the Joey at the end?


Blog would not let me post last night.......had to open new account with new email and username/password........I really don't know what is going on or why I had to do a new dealio. I had a paid account for first year and then free account for several more......????????????????????
Quoting 93. HurricaneHunterJoey:

Storm #1 in San Diego= Drip drip drip.........what a washout, although I am glad Tijuana got .55". Grand total near moi= 0.01 Really not even a drip drip drip :(


You got more than we did in the Western SFV. :( Here's hoping rounds 2 and 3 deliver better.
Quoting 101. science101:



Much of Canada drains north and the major drainage of South America outside the Amazon Basis is the River Plata, which runs south towards the pole. The Amazon more or less runs due east. Drainage has to do with elevation not the spin of the earth.


How many of the "normal" drainage's were changed due to us wanting the water to flow a different way?
Quoting 96. help4u:

Arctic blast is coming!!ALGORE said in 2006 earth would burn up in 10 years just a few days left to live try to enjoy it before we are all gone.


Thx for the heads up:)
Quoting 102. HurricaneHunterJoey:



Blog would not let me post last night.......had to open new account with new email and username/password........I really don't know what is going on or why I had to do a new dealio. I had a paid account for first year and then free account for several more......????????????????????


You're not the only one it happened to, Joe. If I post from home, I'm "VirginIslandLindy" but here at work all is well. *shrugs*

Lindy

Quoting 102. HurricaneHunterJoey:



Blog would not let me post last night.......had to open new account with new email and username/password........I really don't know what is going on or why I had to do a new dealio. I had a paid account for first year and then free account for several more......????????????????????


Same thing kind of happened to me ...I usually never log out, and then something happened that I had to log back in for, and when I did it reverted me back to my old log on ...was justmehouston, then txjax and now back to justmehouston?
Quoting 104. justmehouston:



How many of the "normal" drainage's were changed due to us wanting the water to flow a different way?


Reversing the flow of major rivers like the Mackenzie, Volga, Plata, St. Lawrence, Nile, etc. is not really feasible. All of those flow towards the poles and have since long before Homo sapiens was a species.
109. ariot
Quoting 40. sar2401:

Relatively cooler air flowing over relatively warmer water creates low clouds and fog. If there's enough cold air coming from the right direction with enough lift, it snows. Look up the snow belt in northern Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York to see why you don't want that to happen.


Yeah. The fog part is easy to understand. We see it often enough. Sometimes, like today, that water vapor isn't hugging the ground, but it's up several hundred feet. I suspect it's a micro version of the big lake effect up north, but very small in comparison.

Today, these pop up clouds were even visible on radar for a short time. Even on the narrow north end of the "bay" (it's pretty much a wide river up this far).
Quoting 107. justmehouston:



Same thing kind of happened to me ...I usually never log out, and then something happened that I had to log back in for, and when I did it reverted me back to my old log on ...was justmehouston, then txjax and now back to justmehouston?


You have WU Mail..........I hope.......LOL
Quoting 107. justmehouston:



Same thing kind of happened to me ...I usually never log out, and then something happened that I had to log back in for, and when I did it reverted me back to my old log on ...was justmehouston, then txjax and now back to justmehouston?


Happened to me Jan 2 evening to Jan 3 morning. Okay by evening Jan 3. It said I needed to register, then the registration link said I had. I figured some kind of server issue with the login data and waited for it to get repaired.
Quoting 84. Arcticstuff:



Thanks! Yeah the houses in Finland are built mainly for winter time so you can probably imagine they are not very nice in hot summers since most of the people still don't have AC (it wasn't really necessary since the heatwaves used to be short). Summer 2010 was the craziest thing ever with our the new record high temp of above 37C/99F and that's when I Finally got AC!


My mother from Minneapolis Minnesota had the same complaint about her house. It was designed to hold the heat and it did.. in summer also. Minneapolis Minnesota often gets hot and humid for short periods in summer and gets enough summer heat to reliably ripen maize, a warm weather crop (we call it corn in the U.S).
Quoting 101. science101:



Much of Canada drains north and the major drainage of South America outside the Amazon Basis is the River Plata, which runs south towards the pole. The Amazon more or less runs due east. Drainage has to do with elevation not the spin of the earth.

The elevations may of course in the first place have to do with the rotation of the Earth.
As such we can go on forever like a puppy chasing its tail.
Quoting 102. HurricaneHunterJoey:



Blog would not let me post last night.......had to open new account with new email and username/password........I really don't know what is going on or why I had to do a new dealio. I had a paid account for first year and then free account for several more......????????????????????

Same thing happened to me today.
I had to sign in 3 times to get to see the full blog.
The notes said that WU had sent me an e-mail to verify that I am me but it never arrived.
Fortunately I had all my details of my original registration available and my password etc so I finally got in after about 30 minutes.
I understand that Colorado Bob had the same problem a couple of weeks ago and is now posting under another name!
New pictures show historic North-east castle on brink of falling into River Dee

THE fate of a historic castle was hanging in the balance today after a 60ft chunk of land next to the river washed away.

The owner of Abergeldie Castle was forced to evacuate the 16th century A-listed tower house in Aberdeenshire on Sunday after the River Dee swept away about 60ft (18m) of land behind the property, leaving it only a few feet from the water.


Link
Quoting 114. tampabaymatt:




Bring it on!
Quoting 110. HurricaneHunterJoey:



You have WU Mail..........I hope.......LOL


alrighty then ...no mail from you ...and I'm guessing you didnt get the one I sent you?
Quoting 117. HurricaneHunterJoey:

Bring it on!

El Niño hits California: These maps tell the story of heavy rains

LATimes, January 4, By Joseph Serna and Frank Shyong
California is about to be hit by the first El Niño storm of the year. It's the beginning of what could be a week of rain in the drought-battered state. ...

Good luck!
Quoting 118. justmehouston:

alrighty then ...no mail from you ...and I'm guessing you didnt get the one I sent you?

Lost in WUslation??? Umm, I don't dare to log out now, wondering if I'd ever find back in ;-)
121. vis0

Quoting 30. HaoleboySurfEC:

Vis, simply amazes me. Growing up in the 70's & 80's little did I realize that we (NY/NJ) were living through some of the coldest winters in the last 50 years. Help us Dr. Frank Field. Boy did I get the shaft. So many mornings waiting on the corner for that bus in the bitter cold darkness. Single digits meant it was too cold to ride the bike. Teens maybe if no wind. All this wearing Kmart polyester outerwear and cotton tube socks. Many mornings riding along Ocean Ave watching the steam rise off the Atlantic, because it's water temp was a relatively balmy 39F.

Strangely enough, we here in Florence,SC have already dipped below 30F about a month before you. Tonight forecast low is 26F, possibly wiping out my impatiens which has survived winter thus far (thriving actually).

Crazy Eddie...His prices are insane.


HEY!, ^HaoleboySurfEC described me...kmart! or was it Korvettes! or S. Klein  (14th st.) where i bought a 1/2 lining winter wear arctic jacket which would freeze up stiff while  waiting for the m22 crosstown bus, THAT would have 2  foot icicles IN THE BUS (won a Kodak award for a pic as to that)that took me to  Seward Park HS late 1970s wind chills OLD-50 below...oh wait its Dr. Masters blog back to the terrible flooding DURING WINTER. (and worse there where homeless people  "living" outdoors, BTW i use to buy pizza pies for the (really) homeless ...BTW only spent 4 to 6 bucks on a pie...THEN, [facetious-zilly]so ^justmehouston i beat you, i spent less to help those in need HA!.[facetious-zilly] i thank those that help all humans in need, thank you.

On the flood front::
 Still wish there was some portable device that one could use to heat the water via solar power to steam  SOME OF that water in people front-back-side yards and capture the steams  motion / energy towards storage batteries (the gov would hand out) so at least the suffering folks can save some money on powering generators, appliances by tapping into the water that has brought misery (via the water) that has entered their homes/property.

i know it might not be much energy harnessed but maybe help those with medical devices even WITHIN home wheelchairs, as i've posted before, just as the gov brings in water trucks to pass out water to flooded community families, maybe some portable solar truck(s) that can focus the low angles sun (as with a magnifying glass) towards heating intake of flood waters within or near the flooded areas and as that heated water produces steam it can in-turn charge special battery (NOT CAR BATTERY types do not want people driving in flood communities) within the truck and as people get their bottled water they get 1 charged battery per 2 family members...but then again i'm a nut
Quoting 118. justmehouston:



alrighty then ...no mail from you ...and I'm guessing you didnt get the one I sent you?


I got the one from 12-15 and today......i just resent to you to justmehouston.......tells ya how often I check my WU Mail.......im a lagger....LOL
I just had an epiphany that this is the time of year you see Christmas and Valentine's day decorations together.
Quoting 119. barbamz:


El Niño hits California: These maps tell the story of heavy rains

LATimes, January 4, By Joseph Serna and Frank Shyong
California is about to be hit by the first El Niño storm of the year. It's the beginning of what could be a week of rain in the drought-battered state. ...

Good luck!


Thanks!.......First storm wiffed down here.......hoping for better with the next, what is it now 4,5,6, or 7 storms "lined up to slam California".........Bring it on.......we will clean up the mud and debris and rebuild!
NWS San Fran:............................ MON JAN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MONDAY NIGHT STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM IS DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

WEATHER IMPACTS THIS WEEK INCLUDE...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN FLOODING IN LOW-
LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

* STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN
POWER OUTAGES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

I think it might not be so bad if some of the Ob river was diverted into the Aral sea, like 1,000 m3/second (about 1/20 of the Ob river's average flow. It would refill the Aral sea, and moderate the climate in the area. It would put in 32 km3 per year that would not go to sea level rise. And it just might keep salinity in the Arctic Ocean from falling to levels that disrupt ocean circulation.
84. Arcticstuff:
I want to second Barb's motion and welcome you to the blog, particularly because "my girl" is 100% Finnish, and we're planning a trip to Finland next year, so we're always interested in the weather there.
edit: P.S. This will be our first trip to Finland.
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

I just had an epiphany that this is the time of year you see Christmas and Valentine's day decorations together.


Last night we saw Xmas and Easter together! Couldn't believe they had a load of Easter stuff out already, usually just VDay
Quoting 126. BaltimoreBrian:

I think it might not be so bad if some of the Ob river was diverted into the Aral sea, like 1,000 m3/second (about 1/20 of the Ob river's average flow. It would refill the Aral sea, and moderate the climate in the area. It would put in 32 km3 per year that would not go to sea level rise. And it just might keep salinity in the Arctic Ocean from falling to levels that disrupt ocean circulation.

Is that even remotely possible?
Kinda weird seeing so many lately with alternative handles :/

Hey Vis0, do you still have any of those old photos of NYC?
Am I backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk?
Hi, and Happy New Year everyone!

Thanks for the update, Mr. Masters.


"Whaling history s clues to climate future"

LONDON, 4 January, 2016. People from all walks of life with an interest in climate change and Arctic marine mammals are working with maritime historians and scientists to examine records of polar weather.

The citizen scientists are helping the professionals to study the logbooks of 19th-century whaling ships in an attempt to gain a better understanding of modern-day climate change and weather patterns in the far north.

The project, led by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was launched last month. It is an offshoot of Old Weather, an ongoing partnership between NOAA and Zooniverse, a citizen science web portal.

Michael Dyer, a senior maritime historian at the New Bedford whaling museum in Massachusetts, which is supplying much of the data, said the whaling crews kept detailed daily logbooks of weather conditions during their voyages. The whaling museum is transcribing and digitising its own logbooks, as well as original data sources from other New England collections.

The digitised logbooks are being posted online so that anyone interested can help researchers sift through the vast amounts of information, which are too much for the scientists to cope with on their own.


----------------
Link
---------------

Quoting 41. sar2401:

There's only place I read about a possibility of a three to four year long El Nino. It wasn't at any of the scientific sites I usually visit for El Nino information. React accordingly. :-)


Wasn't that years of La Ninas to kick start the global cooling? I may have heard that somewhere. It is hard to keep track of such things. It is a good thing my salt shaker doesn't get much use, I have many grains.
Quoting 96. help4u:

Arctic blast is coming!!ALGORE said in 2006 earth would burn up in 10 years just a few days left to live try to enjoy it before we are all gone.

Thank you so much for keeping us posted about last month's weather. P.S. It's not a trough until hydrus or Keeper says it's a trough.
Now to get them to close the other account and transfer the $10 to this one............is that a moderator function or 1-800-forgettttttaboudddddddddddddddittttttttttttt .......LOL
Quoting 129. ChiThom:

Is that even remotely possible?
Almost certainly not practical.
Thanks Ped!
Quoting 126. BaltimoreBrian:

I think it might not be so bad if some of the Ob river was diverted into the Aral sea, like 1,000 m3/second (about 1/20 of the Ob river's average flow. It would refill the Aral sea, and moderate the climate in the area. It would put in 32 km3 per year that would not go to sea level rise. And it just might keep salinity in the Arctic Ocean from falling to levels that disrupt ocean circulation.


It might be easier to open a channel to the Gulf of Baja and let it fill that way. It would create a lot of wetlands, moisten the climate and make and inland shipping channel for that part of California. I ran the elevations. The canals would not be a really big engineering feat. There is one spot, with some high elevations, the rest is standard, dig a ditch then dredge.
139. N3EG
Quoting 135. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Now to get them to close the other account and transfer the $10 to this one............is that a moderator function or 1-800-forgettttttaboudddddddddddddddittttttttttttt .......LOL

I'm sure the check is in the email...
Quoting 138. Qazulight:



It might be easier to open a channel to the Gulf of Baja and let it fill that way. It would create a lot of wetlands, moisten the climate and make and inland shipping channel for that part of California. I ran the elevations. The canals would not be a really big engineering feat. There is one spot, with some high elevations, the rest is standard, dig a ditch then dredge.


Wait, what river are we hypothetically redirecting here?
141. vis0

Quoting 41. sar2401:

There's only place I read about a possibility of a three to four year long El Nino. It wasn't at any of the scientific sites I usually visit for El Nino information. React accordingly. :-)
reply at my zilly blog pg.5, cmmnt#248
if you find the pg do not forget to come back here to Dr. Masters blog.
Quoting 126. BaltimoreBrian:

I think it might not be so bad if some of the Ob river was diverted into the Aral sea, like 1,000 m3/second (about 1/20 of the Ob river's average flow. It would refill the Aral sea, and moderate the climate in the area. It would put in 32 km3 per year that would not go to sea level rise. And it just might keep salinity in the Arctic Ocean from falling to levels that disrupt ocean circulation.


One of the great ecological disasters and follies ever.

Killing one of the greatest fisheries and bodies of water to grow cotton.
That's it! Keep going away, model run by model run....

A somewhat complex flow trying to resolve into something off the California coast. We had a bit of rain last night as the lead system banged into the high sitting over the Great Basin. Some rain has resumed this afternoon in the warm advection ahead of the next front. Ominous storm appearing in the far west of the picture. Jet max is currently located to the southwest with the jet axis along 30 N. Left exit flow is into the coast, sharply veering into a negatively tilted flow aloft. Barometers around here dropping fast now, so I'm thinking there may be cyclogenesis. If so, the wind should be picking up shortly.
147. vis0

Quoting 130. mitthbevnuruodo:

Kinda weird seeing so many lately with alternative handles :/

Hey Vis0, do you still have any of those old photos of NYC?
Most in Puerto Rico (if family has not thrown out my 5 boxes of storage i sent there in the late 1990s)

i'll look through my family albums and see if my canon fax works through MY (not plazared's) 13 year old XP to upload some old images.
i see models are beginning to agree n some swath of (light) rain just south of the Great Lakes.

AS TO WEATHER::
BTW made an error corrected by ^science101 @#80.
 i though if it rained around the great lakes (had posted a thought if it rained in Southern Canada and western Appalachians in the North East area as OH, PA, NYS  ...

(specifically thought a bit near keeperofthegate, lot of Ohio, southeastern third NYS-IF IT RAINS MUCH , and western third of PA did empty towards Mississippi due to western Appalachian rains)

...that some of that rain would make it to the Mississippi River watershed and if several nor'easter- with tropicaly infused moisture retrograded toward the western side of the Appalachian (in the NE) that levees might have trouble holding back so much for long periods.

Apology for my error.
Quoting 102. HurricaneHunterJoey:



Blog would not let me post last night.......had to open new account with new email and username/password........I really don't know what is going on or why I had to do a new dealio. I had a paid account for first year and then free account for several more......????????????????????



What, did you forget to tip the guy???? :)
Quoting 138. Qazulight:

It might be easier to open a channel to the Gulf of Baja and let it fill that way. It would create a lot of wetlands, moisten the climate and make and inland shipping channel for that part of California. I ran the elevations. The canals would not be a really big engineering feat. There is one spot, with some high elevations, the rest is standard, dig a ditch then dredge.
Quoting 140. TimSoCal:



Wait, what river are we hypothetically redirecting here?

Not a river. A hypothetical canal following the axis of the lowest elevation between the head of the Gulf of California and the Salton Sea basin. The lowest elevation along the drainage divide is only 30 feet above sea level. It's an interesting idea which a rising sea level and perhaps a big earthquake might make happen anyway.
Thank you to the Snow Queen..We have flurries..looks like winter has finally arrived..



Hope everyone had a safe holiday..

Quoting 149. BayFog:

Quoting 138. Qazulight:

It might be easier to open a channel to the Gulf of Baja and let it fill that way. It would create a lot of wetlands, moisten the climate and make and inland shipping channel for that part of California. I ran the elevations. The canals would not be a really big engineering feat. There is one spot, with some high elevations, the rest is standard, dig a ditch then dredge.

Not a river. A hypothetical canal following the axis of the lowest elevation between the head of the Gulf of California and the Salton Sea basin. The lowest elevation along the drainage divide is only 30 feet above sea level. It's an interesting idea which a rising sea level and perhaps a big earthquake might make happen anyway.


See #126, this started out as something totally different...
152. vis0

Quoting 118. justmehouston:



alrighty then ...no mail from you ...and I'm guessing you didnt get the one I sent you?
Why i stopped using WxUmail in 2014 after arguing why important** mail  i was told i'd receive, never arrived, then 3 times last year could not log in for 3 to 8 days booth times i had to go deep into my cookies (ouch) to correct certain error and i sent wxu snippets thinking maybe its some sort of virus but no response so when i log out i use sar2401 technical prowess of crossing my fingers while saying "La Crux de Magoya" 3 and a half times.

**(from the head of a science group of another country that was then interested in my science invention, that head passed on a few months later)

Weird thing is i will be using WxU mail real soon BUT ONLY TO SEND some of my ideas that might help reverse  or rewire brains that have suffered from concussions or what i call modern war brain reconfiguration (also affects young people / children in war areas to the point that some  become "cells" for terrorist groups. Have clues to that on my blogs for those that like to read ideas that are not fact but might help researchers.

i would have strayed on blog subject but people losing their long time user names at times affects the blog, as who do trust if so many lose  their trusted username is sar2401 becomes "radarowner" at first people will ask how big is the radar and how much did it cost?
i thought joey was joe's son and  justmehouston was a sad Rockets fan, who is Coloradobob now, rosadorobert?
Quoting 151. PedleyCA:



See #126, this started out as something totally different...


I want to know how we went from the Aral Sea and the Ob River to California. Talk about a change of discussion in two posts.
Quoting 153. Astrometeor:



I want to know how we went from the Aral Sea and the Ob River to California. Talk about a change of discussion in two posts.

I thought I was just going with the flow, but perhaps I was diverted.
Quoting 149. BayFog:

Quoting 138. Qazulight:

It might be easier to open a channel to the Gulf of Baja and let it fill that way. It would create a lot of wetlands, moisten the climate and make and inland shipping channel for that part of California. I ran the elevations. The canals would not be a really big engineering feat. There is one spot, with some high elevations, the rest is standard, dig a ditch then dredge.

Not a river. A hypothetical canal following the axis of the lowest elevation between the head of the Gulf of California and the Salton Sea basin. The lowest elevation along the drainage divide is only 30 feet above sea level. It's an interesting idea which a rising sea level and perhaps a big earthquake might make happen anyway.


If the entire Greenland Ice Sheet melted, sea level rise is estimated at 7.2m. Definitely not enough to swamp that basin. And I don't think intentionally flooding all the existing infrastructure and farmland is a price worth paying for any perceived benefits from having a "port" that can only be accessed through a canal after sailing all the way up the Gulf of California.
Quoting 145. BayFog:


A somewhat complex flow trying to resolve into something off the California coast. We had a bit of rain last night as the lead system banged into the high sitting over the Great Basin. Some rain has resumed this afternoon in the warm advection ahead of the next front. Ominous storm appearing in the far west of the picture. Jet max is currently located to the southwest with the jet axis along 30 N. Left exit flow is into the coast, sharply veering into a negatively tilted flow aloft. Barometers around here dropping fast now, so I'm thinking there may be cyclogenesis. If so, the wind should be picking up shortly.


Im hoping you are correct but something looks wrooooonnnnnnggggggggggggg!
Quoting 145. BayFog:


A somewhat complex flow trying to resolve into something off the California coast. We had a bit of rain last night as the lead system banged into the high sitting over the Great Basin. Some rain has resumed this afternoon in the warm advection ahead of the next front. Ominous storm appearing in the far west of the picture. Jet max is currently located to the southwest with the jet axis along 30 N. Left exit flow is into the coast, sharply veering into a negatively tilted flow aloft. Barometers around here dropping fast now, so I'm thinking there may be cyclogenesis. If so, the wind should be picking up shortly.


Or as Lewis Black says " something is askew! "
Evening all. Trying out a new tablet tonight. So far so good ...:-)

Rainy and wintry wx over New Providence tonight..... soup wx...

:-)
OMG!



Crippling snow/ice event on tap for Houston! As if we haven't been through enough already!
Quoting 155. TimSoCal:



If the entire Greenland Ice Sheet melted, sea level rise is estimated at 7.2m. Definitely not enough to swamp that basin. And I don't think intentionally flooding all the existing infrastructure and farmland is a price worth paying for any perceived benefits from having a "port" that can only be accessed through a canal after sailing all the way up the Gulf of California.


Just do it from the Salton Sea to San Felipe......that would make one hell of a tube ride, with margarita ice chest in tow!

Abergeldie Castle on the banks of the River Dee

Quoting 155. TimSoCal:



If the entire Greenland Ice Sheet melted, sea level rise is estimated at 7.2m. Definitely not enough to swamp that basin. And I don't think intentionally flooding all the existing infrastructure and farmland is a price worth paying for any perceived benefits from having a "port" that can only be accessed through a canal after sailing all the way up the Gulf of California.

The land in that region is a rift zone, tectonically sinking over time, so who knows what amount of sea level rise might bring the Gulf back to the Salton Basin.

Making Indio a port is pretty far out, although an argument might be made for the resort possibilities, once a dream of folks who got suckered into buying Salton Seashore lots decades ago.

The sea itself has become a seriously toxic sump for farms. This can't go on forever.
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

I just had an epiphany that this is the time of year you see Christmas and Valentine's day decorations together.
That wierded me out this weekend .....

The St Patrick's day ones were downright scary...
Quoting 159. pureet1948:

OMG!
Crippling snow/ice event on tap for Houston! As if we haven't been through enough already!
Houston, we have a problem.
Quoting 159. pureet1948:

OMG!



Crippling snow/ice event on tap for Houston! As if we haven't been through enough already!


C'mon sir/madam, don't start again! That's like 2 weeks away. Maybe get nervous and stay home if it still shows that forecast on the 15th.
Quoting 164. Mediarologist:

Houston, we have a problem.


Again and again and again
Quoting 161. RobertWC:


Abergeldie Castle on the banks of the River Dee


Yikes!

Cyclogenesis is a very good thing!
Quoting 164. Mediarologist:

Houston, we have a problem.



Houston always problems, sir. From potholes, to storms, to a yucky power company.
Quoting 164. Mediarologist:

Houston, we have a problem.

Quoting 166. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Again and again and again

That's my new nickname for Pureet. (whose name I always read as parakeet for some reason)
Quoting 167. BahaHurican:

Yikes!




How about renting a room for the night?
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

I just had an epiphany that this is the time of year you see Christmas and Valentine's day decorations together.


Me too , the House of Suad just cut off the head of one of their leading Shiite opponents.
The Mormon morons from South Nevada just took over a wild life refuge.

It's an deed a age of epiphany.
Quoting 153. Astrometeor:



I want to know how we went from the Aral Sea and the Ob River to California. Talk about a change of discussion in two posts.


Oh my brain auto corrected to Salton Sea.
Quoting 56. aquak9:

@53 georgevandenberghe- there's a pic of my broccoli on my blog, it's a garden blog, would be honored to have you come visit.
I endorse this comment and strongly recommend the trip to the blog. Aqua's blog is a super one 4 gardening ....
EDIT: I'm sorry you can't post pics, though...
Having some doubts with these storms intensities and thus precip totals. Storms are weakening as they hit the coast while they are pretty deep over water. Seems the strong zonal jet never quite makes it past the California coast and meet a high pressure fate while the main jet goes southeast over Mexico. The first storm met it's demise from the dry air in the interior.



Quoting 46. sar2401:

I hope you made it to your meeting safe and sound. There has been a pretty deep temperature inversion over the valleys there for the past couple of days which creates ideal icing conditions. Some warmer air off the Pacific should solve that problem today.

The video does not show road deicing being done with the usual Teutonic efficiency. It's going to be a slow response time for the krankenwagen if that lady with the bucket of sand (or maybe salt?) has to run out ahead of it all day. :-)

Yes, I made it no problem. I went out about 1/2 hour before I wanted to leave and fired up the car to get it warmed up, full defrost front and rear and the seat heater on. It took 4 or 5 good yanks on the door before I could break the ice and get it open. The defroster didn't clear the ice from the front window but it at least got the ice loose so I was able to take if off in plate sized pieces. The street in front of my house was pretty icy still when I left but once I got to the main roads they were pretty clear (around 7:30 AM) except the overpass over I-5 was still pretty icy. The most dangerous part was walking out to my car and walking in to work with slick ice on the ground. I managed to stay upright but just barely.

As I surmised it started to clear up good by mid-morning and driving home the roads were in good shape with just a few icy spots on the side roads. The Portland area may get freezing rain again tomorrow morning due to the cold winds blowing down the Columbia River Gorge (a well known effect around here) but I'm far enough south in Salem we shouldn't have any more problems. The forecast for the rest of the week is highs in the low 40s and lows near but above freezing with drizzling rain tapering off by Thursday. Pretty normal for this time of year around here.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 for October. El-Nino continuing into Fall would be just unheard of. Something is really really off with these Global patterns to give the possibility of a 3 to 4 year El-Nino. BTW CFSv2 has El-Nino rebuilding next Fall something to watch as it was the CFSv2 that starting showing this last year in January.

October


Boy, if the El Nino continues for 3 to 4 years global temperatures are going to go through the roof (as if they haven't already in 2015).
Quoting 159. pureet1948:

OMG!



Crippling snow/ice event on tap for Houston! As if we haven't been through enough already!


You might want to switch to decaf. You seem just a little high strung.

That model run you posted is two weeks out, and has almost no chance of being correct.
Good Evening - Winter has finally arrived in Northern Michigan, -12.5 F in the backyard right now. Can't believe it was almost 50 a couple of weeks ago

edit: changed temp from 11.6 to -12.5 lol
Quoting 178. Xyrus2000:



You might want to switch to decaf. You seem just a little high strung.

That model run you posted is two weeks out, and has almost no chance of being correct.



Oh, wait a minute! Isn't that GFS model run depicting snow, not ice? Surely snow in Houston will be less damaging than ice. Surely.
Quoting 180. pureet1948:




Oh, wait a minute! Isn't that GFS model run depicting snow, not ice? Surely snow in Houston will be less damaging than ice. Surely.


See your doctor and inquire about benzos? I recommended this 2 weeks ago. PLEASE SEE DOC! They might help with the anxiety.
Quoting 180. pureet1948:




Oh, wait a minute! Isn't that GFS model run depicting snow, not ice? Surely snow in Houston will be less damaging than ice. Surely.


Shirley!
Quoting 96. help4u:

Arctic blast is coming!!ALGORE said in 2006 earth would burn up in 10 years just a few days left to live try to enjoy it before we are all gone.

If you had any interest in the subject beyond ideology you would seek out and try to understand what Gore actually said there instead of quoting BS from some quote miner in the internet.
Quoting 183. riverat544:


If you had any interest in the subject beyond ideology you would seek out and try to understand what Gore actually said there instead of quoting BS from some quote miner in the internet.


You're giving the average person way too much credit.
Quoting 181. HurricaneHunterJoe:



See your doctor and inquire about benzos? I recommended this 2 weeks ago. PLEASE SEE DOC! They might help with the anxiety.



Well, which does less damage, snow or ice?
186. MahFL
I wonder why a line of showers seem to be along the free way ?

Quoting 174. BahaHurican:

I endorse this comment and strongly recommend the trip to the blog. Aqua's blog is a super one 4 gardening ....
EDIT: I'm sorry you can't post pics, though...


Just checked it.. yes it's great!!
Quoting 184. KoritheMan:



You're giving the average person way too much credit.

I thought we were all above average here on WU ;)
Quoting 185. pureet1948:




Well, which does less damage, snow or ice?


Snow.
Quoting 188. riverat544:


I thought we were all above average here on WU ;)


And my name's James.
Quoting 189. Qazulight:



Snow.



Good answer. Of course, ERCOT might slap a conservation alert on power users, due to the extreme cold, but who cares?
"...the highest flood on record to Cape Girardeau and Thebes" might need an asterisk.

Jan 2016 beat the 48.5 ft record stage by 0.36 feet (4.32 in). Yes it did. The 48.5 record stage at Cairo Cape Girardeau and the record at Thebes might have been exceeded in the May 201`1 Mississippi River flood had USACE not got a court order to flood some 130,000 acres by blasting levees near Cape Girardeau. (Thebes is nearby.) This action was taken to save the town of Cairo, IL which lies downstream at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

I just had an epiphany that this is the time of year you see Christmas and Valentine's day decorations together.


Epiphany isn't until Wednesday.
I will be waking up to wind chills in the single to even negative digits tomorrow.I would rather have this in January than waking up to 60 degree weather with dew points in the 60's and high humidity in Winter like what we've been exposed to.....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 182. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Shirley!

Don;t cal me Shirley.
Quoting 136. BaltimoreBrian:

Almost certainly not practical.

face-palm; it was a joke :o)
Quoting 177. riverat544:


Boy, if the El Nino continues for 3 to 4 years global temperatures are going to go through the roof (as if they haven't already in 2015).
Quoting 188. riverat544:


I thought we were all above average here on WU ;)
More like below.
Does anyone know the water/flood stages near the Nuclear power plants. ,http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSN0629012320 110506 ,

Last time they were monitoring it