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Historic Unseasonable Flood Begins on Mississippi River; 928 mb Low Hits Iceland

By: Jeff Masters 5:13 PM GMT on December 30, 2015

A historic and unseasonable flood has begun on the Mississippi River and its tributaries, thanks to heavy rains that fell from Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley during Christmas week. Never before has water this high been observed in winter along the levee system of the river. The Father of Waters began over-topping its levees just north of West Alton, Missouri (population 500) on Tuesday, forcing evacuations. West Alton lies at the confluence of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers, about 7 miles upriver from St. Louis. The river is still rising at West Alton, and is expected to crest on Thursday morning at the second highest level ever recorded, about 5' below the disastrous flood of 1993. On Friday, the massive Mississippi River flood crest will reach St. Louis, bringing the second highest waters levels ever recorded there (flood records extend way back to 1785 in St. Louis.) The three river gauges downstream from St. Louis--at Chester, Cape Girardeau, and Thebes--are expected to see their highest water highest levels ever recorded on Friday and Saturday. The latest flood forecasts for the Mississippi River issued Tuesday evening by NWS River Forecast Center predicted that Thebes would be the last location to see an all-time record crest in this flood; below Thebes, flood crests between the 2nd and 4th highest on record are expected along most of the Mississippi and the lower portions of two main tributaries, the Ohio and Arkansas Rivers. As with weather forecasts, the margin of uncertainty in river-crest predictions increases over longer time periods. According to a Wednesday morning summary by TWC's Jon Erdman, the following flooding and flood impacts can be expected farther down river:

• Memphis: Crest late next week higher than 1997 and 1973 floods, but well below 2011 and 1937 floods.
• Vicksburg, Mississippi: Crest in mid-January expected to exceed 1973 flood, but well below 2011 and 1927 floods. Some flooding of city streets and businesses possible.
• Natchez, Mississippi: Crest around MLK holiday may top 1937 flood, but should remain below 2011 record flood. Flooding of Ft. Adams likely.
• Baton Rouge, Louisiana: Crest during MLK week comparable or just below May 2011 flood possible. Areas outside of levee protection may flood. Shipping and industrial activities may be significantly impacted.


Figure 1. The Mississippi River downstream of St. Louis at Thebes was at major flood stage on Wednesday morning, and was forecast to crest on Friday at the highest level ever observed. Flood records at this location extend back to 1844. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

On January 20, the flood crest is expected to arrive in New Orleans, bringing the Mississippi River to its 17-foot flood stage in the city, just 3 feet below the tops of the levees. In past years, though, when the river has been forecast to rise to 17 feet in the city, the Army Corps of Engineers has opened up the Bonnet Carré Spillway in St. Charles Parish, which diverts water into Lake Pontchartrain and keeps the river from reaching flood stage in New Orleans. The Corps may also be forced to open the Morganza Floodway in Pointe Coupee Parish, which would divert water down the Atchafalaya River. Opening this spillway has a considerably higher cost than opening the Bonnet Carré Spillway, due to the large amount of agricultural lands that would be flooded below the Morganza Floodway. The Corps also has the option of increasing the flow of Mississippi River water into the Atchafalaya at the Old River Control Structure in Concordia Parish. Operating the Old River Control Structure in this way, though, puts stress on the structure, as I explained in my 2011 blog post, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure. The Tuesday evening forecast from the NWS River Forecast Center predicted that the Mississippi River would crest at Red River Landing, where the Old River Control Structure is located, on January 19. The predicted crest of 62.5' is just 0.9' below the all-time record crest of 63.39' set on May 18, 2011. A water level this high has a good chance of forcing the Army Corps to open the Morganza Floodway in order to relieve pressure on the Old River Control Structure. Both the Bonnet Carré Spillway and Morganza Floodway were opened in May 2011, when the highest flood crests ever observed on the Lower Mississippi arrived. This flood cost approximately $3 billion; $1 billion was required just to repair the damage done to the levee system and various other components of the flood control system damaged by the flood, according to Charles Camillo's book, Divine Providence: The 2011 Flood in the Mississippi River and Tributaries Project. I expect the damage from the December 2015 - January 2016 Mississippi River flood will run into the hundreds of millions. According to a Wednesday news story in The Advocate, the Army Corps will make a decision by January 9 on whether or not to open the Bonnet Carré Spillway. The last time the spillway was opened in January was back in 1937, its first year of operation. In a Wednesday morning Press Release, the Army Corps of Engineers indicated that they are mobilizing people, barges and operational equipment to open a third floodway on the Mississippi River near its confluence with the Ohio River--the Birds Point - New Madrid floodway. Opening up this floodway would help relieve pressure on the levees near Cairo, Illinois, something the Corps was forced to do in May 2011. However, the Corps said that they do not anticipate operating the floodway during the current flood, if current flood height predictions hold.


Figure 2. Existing flood stage on December 28, 2015 (inner colored square) and predicted maximum flood stage (outer colored square region around the inner colored square) for the Lower Mississippi River and two tributaries (the Arkansas and Ohio Rivers) near where they join the Mississippi. I've added numerical ranking on the right side of the squares to indicate where a top-ten flood crest in recorded history is expected. Two gauges are expecting their highest floods on record (Cape Girardeau and Thebes), and most of the Lower Mississippi is expecting a top-five highest flood crest on record. Where the Ohio River joins the Mississippi at Cairo, Illinois, the Ohio River is forecast to crest on January 5 at the third highest level on record; downstream from Little Rock, Arkansas, the Arkansas River is predicted to crest on Friday at the third highest level on record near its confluence with the Mississippi. Image credit: NWS River Forecast Center.

Massive 928 mb storm pummels Iceland and the UK
A massive North Atlantic low pressure system dubbed "Frank" bombed to a central pressure of 928 mb on Wednesday morning and moved over Iceland, bringing heavy rains to Iceland and the UK and hurricane-force winds to the ocean waters between. According to Weather Underground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's 2011 post, World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records, the storm missed setting a lowest pressure for Iceland; the lowest pressure measured on the island is probably the 923.6 mb reading on December 2, 1929. Chris also notes that there are two storms in the North Atlantic that likely had a minimum pressure below 920 mb:

1) Storm of January 10, 1993 deepened to a central pressure of 912-915 mb (26.93”-27.02”) between Iceland and Scotland near 62°N, 15°W

2) Storm of December 15-16, 1986 deepened to at least 916 mb southeast of Greenland near 62°N, 32°W. A ship in the vicinity actually made a measurement of 920.2 mb on December 15th while still some distance from the center of the storm. The British Meteorological Office assessed the central pressure of the storm at this time as being 916 mb (27.05”), but the West German meteorological service proposed a pressure possibly as low as 912-913 mb (see Stephen Burt article in Weather magazine Vol. 42 pp. 53-56, February 1987).

Some links to more info on Frank, courtesy of wunderground member barbamz:

Extreme Weather Causes Damage in East Fjords
Iceland Review, By Vala Hafstad Nature & Travel about 2 hours ago
The severe weather in the East Fjords is among the worst residents have ever experienced, RUV reports. The situation is the worst in Eskifjordur, where a high sea level land hurricane-force winds have threatened the marina. Part of the dock came loose, but rescue workers managed to fasten it. The surf has inundated all docks and the whole harbor area. Roof sheets have blown off several houses. There was high tide at 5:30 am, but since then, water levels have subsided somewhat. Boats that came loose in the marina were successfully tied down. Basements have flooded and tidal waves have reached cabins, never before affected by sea water. Some homes are without power...

VIDEO: "Absolutely crazy" storm in East Iceland
Iceland Monitor | Wed 30 Dec 2015 | 9.56 GMT

BBC Live: Storm Frank hits UK

Guardian: Storm Frank: further floods expected as gales and rain batter British Isles - live

BBC live report especially for Cumbria.

Near the southern coast of Ireland yesterday:





Figure 3. Surface analysis from 06 UTC December 30, 2015 showing intense Winter Storm Frank with a central pressure of 928 mb over Iceland. Image credit: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Incredibly warm air flowing to the North Pole
The counter-clockwise flow of air in advance of Wednesday's Icelandic low is following an unusually contorted kink in the jet stream and pumping relatively warm air all the way to the North Pole, where temperatures near freezing may be occurring. According to Rick Thoman of the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska, a buoy (64760) just 180 miles from the Pole, at 87.4°N, 154.4°E, reported a 1200 UTC December 30, 2015 temperature of -0.1°C with a -1.6°C dewpoint. Looking at the obs available for the past few days, there is nothing obviously bogus: the buoy was reporting -25°C two days ago. Bob Henson tweeted this fact on Tuesday: reanalysis maps dating back to 1948 (courtesy Steven Cavallo, University of Oklahoma) show only three cases where the North Pole Temperature reached the freezing mark or above in December (and no cases in January - March.) Andrew Freedman of Mashable has more on this freak Arctic warm wave in a Tuesday post.


Figure 4. Temperature analysis from the 00 UTC December 30, 2015 run of the GFS model, showing temperatures near freezing (aqua colors) penetrating very close to the North Pole. These temperatures are about 20°C (36°F) above average. Image credit: University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer.

Jeff Masters

Flood Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

We'll be watching the flooding over the next two-three weeks.

Thank you for the update.
Thanks for the informative blog!

I wonder what the long term implications are from above freezing temperatures at the North Pole in December will be? Could this cause the ice to be more susceptible to breaking up due to storms? Could the temperature difference fuel stronger storms? Will this unbelievable event be the norm in 20 years?

Jeesh, it's been a simply insane week of weather for the world.
Never fails, repost from old blog:

Back at 31 again today in S C IL, press up a little more & light W winds as high slides by to S, still overcast, but supposed to break. Standing water has really soaked in well in my area, but people along Sangamon & its S Fork, Illinois, Kaskaskia rivers (& all tributaries feeding them) are fighting rising waters, closed roads, etc. Two more people drowned in a branch of a creek that runs by my old homestead we left around 40 yrs ago, found them but not the vehicle they were in.

To my S in MO, I-44 closed for 20 (Edit: now 24 - extended to I-270) miles around area where sewer plant went under water yesterday. Nearby plant in Valley Park sandbagged but threatened as Meremac beats its '82 record by 3'. New levee was built to 44', but floodgates at 43' & that's expected peak, so some residents being evacuated jic. (Lots of development in S County since '82 as well) Some lower levels of Menard Correctional starting to flood & access road is flooded. Some prisoners were evacuated. Meremac should peak tomorrow, MS at Chester Friday. Dropped peak at StL a few more tenths, it should peak tomorrow as well. More at stltoday.com if interested. Can't rem if Sherwood Spirit is in that area, I think she's further N & W though.
My thoughts are with those dealing with flooding not only in the US, but the UK, and South America as well. It is absolutely unreal that the Mississippi is flooding in December. The fact that heavy rains, and not melting snow, are at work is strange enough. It makes me ponder the likelihood of a more significant flood as the result of a high precipitation event during the spring or summer. Especially if it ever snows, and snow melt plays a role...

May all the levees hold strong.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
904 AM PST WED DEC 30 2015

...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT
CALIFORNIA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING MORE CERTAIN OF A RETURN TO
WET WEATHER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

Looking more and more like El Nino will be piling into California by next week as the Pacific jet slices under the ridge, with the northern branch of the jet withering away.
Thanks for the information! Hope everyone stays safe during the historic river flooding.
Quoting 2. Seattleite:

Thanks for the informative blog!

I wonder what the long term implications are from above freezing temperatures at the North Pole in December will be? Could this cause the ice to be more susceptible to breaking up due to storms? Could the temperature difference fuel stronger storms? Will this unbelievable event be the norm in 20 years?

Jeesh, it's been a simply insane week of weather for the world.

It's interesting too because the water temps under the thinner sea ice are also warmer than normal. Meanwhile, Antarctica's sea ice is back into average territory, which means it's been melting at a greater than average rate since it's coming down from last year's anomalous extent.
Thank you..Air that warm air will have a large affect on the polar vort, and more warm air intrusion forecast for the second week in January. The Mighty Mississippi at it again..It seems to have some flooding every time Nino is around.

Midlevel prog showing the onset of what should be a train of disturbances moving into California from the midlatitudes by next week.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015

SCZ015-021-022-301815-
FAIRFIELD-LANCASTER-KERSHAW-
1252 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KERSHAW...SOUTHERN
LANCASTER AND NORTHEASTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 1252 PM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTH OF GREAT
FALLS...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINNSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KERSHAW...HEATH SPRINGS AND BETHUNE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3440 8032 3435 8097 3453 8101 3455 8091
3454 8088 3455 8087 3463 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 258DEG 32KT 3446 8090
$$
MANNING
Quoting 6. Bluestorm001:

Thanks for the information! Hope everyone stays safe during the historic river flooding.


This is not me, by the way.
Quoting 3. dabirds:

Never fails, repost from old blog:

Back at 31 again today in S C IL, press up a little more & light W winds as high slides by to S, still overcast, but supposed to break. Standing water has really soaked in well in my area, but people along Sangamon & its S Fork, Illinois, Kaskaskia rivers (& all tributaries feeding them) are fighting rising waters, closed roads, etc. Two more people drowned in a branch of a creek that runs by my old homestead we left around 40 yrs ago, found them but not the vehicle they were in.

To my S in MO, I-44 closed for 20 (Edit: now 24 - extended to I-270) miles around area where sewer plant went under water yesterday. Nearby plant in Valley Park sandbagged but threatened as Meremac beats its '82 record by 3'. New levee was built to 44', but floodgates at 43' & that's expected peak, so some residents being evacuated jic. (Lots of development in S County since '82 as well) Some lower levels of Menard Correctional starting to flood & access road is flooded. Some prisoners were evacuated. Meremac should peak tomorrow, MS at Chester Friday. Dropped peak at StL a few more tenths, it should peak tomorrow as well. More at stltoday.com if interested. Can't rem if Sherwood Spirit is in that area, I think she's further N & W though.


That's too bad. I grew up in Wildwood, which is about 5 miles north of Meremac in Eureka. Many places I went to as a kid is now underwater :\
WED DEC 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
WESTERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST WEDNESDAY

* AT 924 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND GIVEN THE SATURATED
CONDITIONS....FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ELBA...FORT RUCKER...ENTERPRISE...GENEVA...LEVEL PLAINS...SAMSON...
NEW BROCKTON...ARITON...LEE...KINSTON...COFFEE SPRINGS...
CLINTONVILLE...BLUFF SPRING...PHILLIPS CROSSROADS...BATTENS
CROSSROADS...CLOWERS CROSSROADS...LOWE ARMY HELIPORT...ZOAR...
CENTRAL CITY AND SELLERSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

from blog article "...to the North Pole, where temperatures near freezing may be occurring--though I doubt there are any instruments there to measure the temperature this winter..."

Why would there be no weather/temperature recording instruments at the North Pole??
Quoting 13. Bluestorm5:



That's too bad. I grew up in Wildwood, which is about 5 miles north of Meremac in Eureka. Many places I went to as a kid is now underwater :\
Union had it bad yesterday too Blue, 141 & 44 is area closed. Big River also threatening JeffCo water supply. All going well at school? Will miss Heyward, but like the Leake p/u.
Quoting 15. JNFlori30A:

"...to the North Pole, where temperatures near freezing may be occurring--though I doubt there are any instruments there to measure the temperature this winter..."

Why would there be no weather temperature recording instruments at the North Pole??


One thing to consider is that the ice is actually moving. So if you had a remote weather station at the current "north pole" it wouldn't stay there.
Quoting 12. LargoFl:




This rain is not a problem for us along the coast as we've not had a huge amount of rain lately. The problem is it will most likely move NE into Sar's area of SE Alabama where we all know they don't need anymore rain.
The Big River is getting rolling! Thanks for the update Dr Masters! Good Morning Class!
Not great weather news but thanks for the updates!
Quoting 15. JNFlori30A:

from blog article "...to the North Pole, where temperatures near freezing may be occurring--though I doubt there are any instruments there to measure the temperature this winter..."

Why would there be no weather/temperature recording instruments at the North Pole??


Because it is in the middle of the Arctic ocean with about a 2 meter thick icecap over the water. The ice moves several miles a day so you would have to keep moving it every day to keep it on position. There are no manned observing sites within hundreds of miles of the pole. However the following is a possibility.


Dear Santa.. Please accept and set up this weatherbug kit and start transmitting observations. Thank you.
Quoting 16. dabirds:

Union had it bad yesterday too Blue, 141 & 44 is area closed. Big River also threatening JeffCo water supply. All going well at school? Will miss Heyward, but like the Leake p/u.


Yeah, I saw Union on CBS last night. I grew up using 141/44 ramp often so that's an another familiar area, too. I'm doing well in school, thanks for asking!

It's too bad about Heyward, but I like Leake signing too.
Back to a weaker storm at 1009mb up from 997mb but looks like decent rains for Soo Cal........I still will take anything we can get but am tired of storms like the last 2 with rain totals of 0.11 and 0.06. Can we squeeze a .50 outta one of these 3? I hate the splitting of storms into 2 jets, seems always the weaker ones come to Soo Cal. C'mon Nino!



Meanwhile, the 2nd storm is CURRENTLY forecast to affect pretty much the entire state of California with snow for the Sierra's.

Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:



Because it is in the middle of the Arctic ocean with about a 2 meter thick icecap over the water. The ice moves several miles a day so you would have to keep moving it every day to keep it on position. There are no manned observing sites within hundreds of miles of the pole. However the following is a possibility.


Dear Santa.. Please accept and set up this weatherbug kit and start transmitting observations. Thank you.



Here' a webcam drift map from the Nole Pole region.




Link
25. bwi
Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:



Because it is in the middle of the Arctic ocean with about a 2 meter thick icecap over the water. The ice moves several miles a day so you would have to keep moving it every day to keep it on position. There are no manned observing sites within hundreds of miles of the pole. However the following is a possibility.


Dear Santa.. Please accept and set up this weatherbug kit and start transmitting observations. Thank you.



There are actually some buoys drifting more or less near the pole, some of which have some weather info -- that's where those famous webcam pics of meltponds came from a couple years ago.

Here's a forum thread that discusses the data from the various buoys, whether it is reliable, etc.
More heavy rains moving into flooded parts of AL:

Quoting 26. tampabaymatt:

More heavy rains moving into flooded parts of AL:




Not good, I'm supposed to head through the Brewton area tomorrow to get to my hunting camp, hopefully none of the flooding affects the route I take. Anybody have a good link to what roads are open or closed in Alabama?
Warm air over the North pole shows well here..

Quoting 5. BayFog:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
904 AM PST WED DEC 30 2015

...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT
CALIFORNIA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING MORE CERTAIN OF A RETURN TO
WET WEATHER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

Looking more and more like El Nino will be piling into California by next week as the Pacific jet slices under the ridge, with the northern branch of the jet withering away.


Let us hope so!
Thanks for the new entry, doc. Guess the Mississippi flooding will resemble the longe range flooding desaster of our European Rivers Danube and Elbe in 2013: weeks after the big rains the crest of the flood was still causing destruction somewhere far away, amid then beautiful weather ...

Here two nice portraits of our "Frank" from space:


December 29, when bombing out west of Ireland.


Today, December 30, north of Iceland. Source: Wokingham weather.
I'd say this looks El Nino-ish.
Hmmmm...this could get interesting.
Meanwhile, it is 87F here in Orlando, another scorcher and another record high. This December is in a category all its own in terms of persistent warmth. Rain please.
Quoting 34. HurrMichaelOrl:

Meanwhile, it is 87F here in Orlando, another scorcher and another record high. This December is in a category all its own in terms of persistent warmth. Rain please.


It rained in South Florida for 10 seconds... on and off. Just enough so I can see steam rising from the streets and driveways... Not much of a cool off, more like a steam bath. Good thing it isn't winter yet. (sarcasm).
NWS Melbourne Florida El Nino Impacts Forecast...
Thanks dok!
fmbill - One can only hope the below normal temp. holds...
12Z ECMWF has the first storm further south than the GFS=Less rain for Soo Cl


Quoting 34. HurrMichaelOrl:

Meanwhile, it is 87F here in Orlando, another scorcher and another record high. This December is in a category all its own in terms of persistent warmth. Rain please.
Saw on WC this a.m. your projected Dec. avg. is going to beat the record high avg. for March, that's just crazy. Said mainly cuz your high dew pts are keeping the lows way above avg.
Quoting 34. HurrMichaelOrl:

Meanwhile, it is 87F here in Orlando, another scorcher and another record high. This December is in a category all its own in terms of persistent warmth. Rain please.


Yeah, 21 days above 80 degrees with 11 days at or over 85 degrees for December down here in Fort Myers.
Quoting 38. Dakster:

fmbill - One can only hope the below normal temp. holds...

My recent 5k runs in the morning have been very slow due to the heat & humidity in C. FL. Hoping the cooler weather will stay around a bit with this next frontal boundary oozing into the area.
Per GFS 12Z, 1-4 Feet of snow for Sierra's Jan4-Jan10........Hope so!

Quoting 41. dabirds:

Saw on WC this a.m. your projected Dec. avg. is going to beat the record high avg. for March, that's just crazy. Said mainly cuz your high dew pts are keeping the lows way above avg.

We are still running the A/C day & night. Hopefully we will cool down enough to open the windows at least overnight.
Quoting 27. 69Viking:



Not good, I'm supposed to head through the Brewton area tomorrow to get to my hunting camp, hopefully none of the flooding affects the route I take. Anybody have a good link to what roads are open or closed in Alabama?
The Brewton route may not work. ALDOT has a road conditions website but it's usually slow in updating and not very reliable. Most of the southern tier of counties is getting heavy rain again, with Brewton getting almost two inches in an hour around 10:00. There are still a lot of road closures due to damage from the Christmas Eve storms. As of right now, taking 431 to Dothan and then cutting over may be a better idea. Roads there are generally in good shape. I'd call the county sheriff's office in each of the counties you'll pass through and get conditions from them since they'll have more accurate data. The heaviest rains have been north toward Columbus and west toward Coffee County. I've had 0.83" so far, but it hasn't been torrential. The areas west and north are already at two to three inches today. I don't know how close the hunting camp is to any creeks but you need to check that also. A lot of creeks are out of their banks, and lowland hunting grounds are being flooded. I know you have to hunt when you have time off but this is just not going to be a very good weekend. Whatever you do, make sure you are dressed for constant, hard rain.
Quoting 26. tampabaymatt:

More heavy rains moving into flooded parts of AL:



Rain turned steady about 30 minutes ago here on panhandle coast
Here too fmbill... Summer time electric bills... ugh...

2nd storm looks to be a good one! Storm #1 going bye bye into Arizona and Storm #2 Inbound


12 hours later



Another 12 hours


18 hours later, 2nd wave of #2 storm heads inland and southeast




If it verifies, Storm #2 could be very nice rain and snow wise.
Quoting 45. fmbill:


We are still running the A/C day & night. Hopefully we will cool down enough to open the windows at least overnight.
Been good for the heating bill up here. About to get back to avg next couple of days, but teen lows instead of minus, I'll take. Would like a little snow sometime though. Worried about ice in this pattern if we get cold though.
Quoting 46. sar2401:

The Brewton route may not work. ALDOT has a road conditions website but it's usully slow in updating and not very reliable. Most of the southern tier of counties is getting heavy rain again, with Brewton getting almost two inches in an hour around 10:00. There are still a lot of road closures due to damage from the Christmas Eve storms. As of right now, taking 431 to Dothan and then cutting over may be a better idea. Roads there are generally in good shape. I'd call the county sheriff's office in each of the counties you'll pass through and get conditions from them since they'll have more accurate data. The heaviest rains have been north toward Columbus and west toward Coffee County. I've had 0.83" so far, but it hasn't been torrential. The areas west and north are already at two to three inches today. I don't know how close the hunting camp is to any creeks but you need to check that also. A lot of creeks are out of their banks, and lowland hunting grounds are being flooded. I know you have to hunt when you have time off but this is just not going to be a very good weekend. Whatever you do, make sure you are dressed for constant, hard rain.


Sar, what is your total for December as of now? I'd imagine over 15 inches. Sorry to hear you're getting more rain.
If you haven't seen it. It's one of the top stories on AOL.

This El Niño is probably getting stronger in 2016
Link


NASA says 2015's exceptionally intense El Niño will likely get stronger in 2016. Based on satellite images, NASA says this El Niño is shaping up to be as strong as the one from 1997, which may have contributed to the Great Ice Storm of 1998.
SEE ALSO: Deadly floods threaten to reach historic levels
NASA says a side-by-side comparison of this year to 1997 shows there's a lot of warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The agency said: "The images show nearly identical, unusually high sea surface heights along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific: the signature of a big and powerful El Niño."
Scientists don't know exactly how El Niño will take shape in the coming months.
But an advisory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it expects above-average precipitation in the southern U.S. and drier than average conditions in the north.
See more of the effects of El Niño:
Quoting 46. sar2401:

The Brewton route may not work. ALDOT has a road conditions website but it's usully slow in updating and not very reliable. Most of the southern tier of counties is getting heavy rain again, with Brewton getting almost two inches in an hour around 10:00. There are still a lot of road closures due to damage from the Christmas Eve storms. As of right now, taking 431 to Dothan and then cutting over may be a better idea. Roads there are generally in good shape. I'd call the county sheriff's office in each of the counties you'll pass through and get conditions from them since they'll have more accurate data. The heaviest rains have been north toward Columbus and west toward Coffee County. I've had 0.83" so far, but it hasn't been torrential. The areas west and north are already at two to three inches today. I don't know how close the hunting camp is to any creeks but you need to check that also. A lot of creeks are out of their banks, and lowland hunting grounds are being flooded. I know you have to hunt when you have time off but this is just not going to be a very good weekend. Whatever you do, make sure you are dressed for constant, hard rain.


We have a creek that runs through the property and when there's a lot of rain we know to stay on the house side of the creek on the higher areas. The area I hunt is about 20 miles West of Georgiana off Hwy 106 and by Friday the cold front is forecast to push through with the rain ending by tomorrow. I won't be going up until tomorrow afternoon. I'll use Google Maps on my phone, they generally have good updates on road conditions. I also have the Waze app that allows users to report on road conditions. The forecast Friday thru Monday where I hunt is for dry conditions with highs in the mid 50's and lows in the mid 30's. With the first real cool down of the hunting season I'm going to make every effort I can to get there, might have to take a few detours but hopefully I should be able to make it there.
Quoting 49. HurricaneHunterJoe:

2nd storm looks to be a good one! Storm #1 going bye bye into Arizona and Storm #2 Inbound


12 hours later



Another 12 hours


18 hours later, 2nd wave of #2 storm heads inland and southeast




If it verifies, Storm #2 could be very nice rain and snow wise.

These initial impukses and the ones coming down the pike will be moving across the midlatitudes of the Pacific and so should be much more juicy than the ones we've seen so far which have been run of the mill northerly systems.
We seem to have a brace of storms popped up in the equatorial Pacific, first for quite a while.

Rainfall total about an eighth of an inch for December here but we may get a sprinkling before 2016!
Quoting 28. hydrus:

Warm air over the North pole shows well here..



Temps are back to about minus 20/C now.
12 hours ago they got up to about +2/C.

Link
Quoting 57. Grothar:



Evening Grother.
Possibly one of the largest commas ever seen, all the way to the Azores from well above northern Iceland.
Quoting 58. PlazaRed:


Evening Grother.
Possibly one of the largest commas ever seen, all the way to the Azores from well above northern Iceland.


Remember the good old days when we saw them in the mid-Atlantic in summer??

I guess seeing a comma like that gives us all a "pause"
Quoting 15. JNFlori30A:

from blog article "...to the North Pole, where temperatures near freezing may be occurring--though I doubt there are any instruments there to measure the temperature this winter..."

Why would there be no weather/temperature recording instruments at the North Pole??


Well during the summer it's water. During the winter maintenance of the instruments would be problematic as landing on sea ice is difficult.
Quoting 59. Grothar:



Remember the good old days when we saw them in the mid-Atlantic in summer??

I guess seeing a comma like that gives us all a "pause"
So now we are all quadrupeds with furry feet..:)
Quoting 59. Grothar:



Remember the good old days when we saw them in the mid-Atlantic in summer??

I guess seeing a comma like that gives us all a "pause"

The big shock will be when they are the other way around and dragging air from northern Norway down to the Canary islands to fuel the Cape Verde systems.
Still we can live in hope.
Feliz Nuevo year coming soon from Iberia.
Another year LESS!

Manana es el dia de loda los Borachos en el mundo?
Not quite as impressive. But for a Winter Storm along the East Coast, it was quite impressive.

March 12- 13, Super Storm (976 mb), Produced a storm surge as high as 12 ft. along the Gulf Coast.

Quoting 62. PlazaRed:


The big shock will be when they are the other way around and dragging air from northern Norway down to the Canary islands to fuel the Cape Verde systems.
Still we can live in hope.
Feliz Nuevo year coming soon from Iberia.
Another year LESS!

Manana es el dia de loda los Borachos en el mundo?

Cuidado con el vino
Holy smokes guys look @ this WWB! Those that think El-Nino will continue to decline well think again as El-Nino is about to re-intensify!

Quoting 65. tampabaymatt:




Hi Matt, models show 2 systems crossing FL over the next 7 days one being Sunday and the other being Wednesday. Those 2 systems combined per the latest 12Z Euro show 3" to 6" of rain across FL which would nearly double what is considered average for January as a whole. Could be severe weather next Wednesday across FL so it is important to watch these model trends over the weekend to see if this does indeed verify.

Euro & GFS interestingly show a strong South to North jet streaming across the Gulf next Wednesday which implies a very difluent atmosphere across the Eastern Gulf & FL which equals a significant severe weather threat.

CFSv2 absolutely nailed this upcoming WWB back a month ago for January and if El-Nino does indeed re-intensfy well there goes Winter across the Eastern US.
Quoting 66. StormTrackerScott:

Holy smokes guys look @ this WWB! Those that think El-Nino will continue to decline well think again as El-Nino is about to re-intensify!




From comment #52
"NASA says 2015's exceptionally intense El Niño will likely get stronger in 2016."
Quoting 69. Sfloridacat5:



From comment #52
"NASA says 2015's exceptionally intense El Niño will likely get stronger in 2016."


Not sure it will surpass the peak of 3.1C but 2.9C or even 3C is not out of the question in about 4 to 6 weeks which would ruin Winter across the Eastern US.
Quoting 55. PlazaRed:

We seem to have a brace of storms popped up in the equatorial Pacific, first for quite a while.

Rainfall total about an eighth of an inch for December here but we may get a sprinkling before 2016!

Those should create a westerly fetch against the normal easterlies, driving warm water further east.
Quoting 59. Grothar:



Remember the good old days when we saw them in the mid-Atlantic in summer??

I guess seeing a comma like that gives us all a "pause"

Imagine if we had had something like that in the 20 degree latitudes of the Atlantic in August?

It would probably have been impossible to sign into the blog, let alone post on it!

Spanish weather news on TV now at 10 pm.
A lot of moaning about 2015 being the hottest month ever globally and they are saying how bad will next year be with the El Niño?
Added moaning about the persistent high pressure over the Med. Driving high temps north into the UK area and assorted Nordic countries, along with the North Pole of course.
Extra moaning about 20 foot, (6 mts,) waves along the north coast of Iberia.

Oh well, Hasta Manana?

all in all it might rain at some point in the next week or so for the south of Spain but nobody seems very excited about this.

Meanwhile everybody's attention's are focused on El Dia de toda los borachas. Or the day of all Drunks, tomorrow.
Quoting 49. HurricaneHunterJoe:

2nd storm looks to be a good one! Storm #1 going bye bye into Arizona and Storm #2 Inbound


12 hours later



Another 12 hours


18 hours later, 2nd wave of #2 storm heads inland and southeast




If it verifies, Storm #2 could be very nice rain and snow wise.


That looks so promising, then I go outside and there is not even one cloud in the sky. I need a new reality.
Quoting 60. MahFL:



Well during the summer it's water. During the winter maintenance of the instruments would be problematic as landing on sea ice is difficult.


From Slate on Tuesday, December 29:

“I contacted a team of climate scientists at the University of Washington who maintain a fleet of weather monitoring equipment near the North Pole. James Morison, the principal investigator of the North Pole Environmental Observatory, said he’s “never heard of” temperatures above freezing in the wintertime there. Looking closer at the weather data, it appears this event is in fact unprecedented during the time period from late December through late April”
Warm Storm Brings Rain Over Arctic Sea Ice in Winter

As The Atlantic so aptly notes, the hottest year in the global climate record is ending with a Storm that will Unfreeze the North Pole. A warm storm that is now predicted to bring never-before-seen above freezing temperatures in the range of 32 to 36 degrees Fahrenheit for the highest Latitude in the Northern Hemisphere by afternoon tomorrow. A storm expected to dump six inches of rain and bring 80 mile per hour winds to a Northern England already suffering the worst flooding events in all of its long history. A storm that will rage ashore in Iceland packing 90-100 mile per hour winds and hurl both heavy rains and snows across that volcanic isle.

Link
This buoy currently is closest to the North Pole.. It is the orange one here.

NPEO 2015 AXIB Buoy 132472 latest weather data
12/30/2000Z 87.593°N 41.329°W -10.26°C 988.5mb -23.46°C

Quite the fetch over the Norweigan Sea. Got to be 50 footers pushing northward. Wow. Not every day you see that set up.

Quoting 57. Grothar:


Quoting 66. StormTrackerScott:

Holy smokes guys look @ this WWB! Those that think El-Nino will continue to decline well think again as El-Nino is about to re-intensify!



ESPI has been rising fast too. It's 1.87 today.
Atlantic systems of 1986 and 1993, I was following those with the available means, that is tv weather reports and radio like shipping reports. The former was analyzed at 915 hPa, midnight GMT on the pencil drawn synopsis of KNMI (with a tiny circle denoting the isobar :) ), and broadcasted at that pressure in the German Seewetterbericht. The latter is probably the world record at a few hPa deeper.
There's a trend in the annual number of sub-940 systems, upwards, imo. With a lot of variation though.
California’s ongoing drought threatens nearly 60 million large trees

Now a study by researchers at the Washington, D.C.-based Carnegie Institution for Science has found that up to 58 million large trees in California — some of Earth’s oldest and most massive trees — have experienced severe canopy water loss between 2011 and today, putting them at severe risk.

The Carnegie researchers, whose findings were published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, write that the impacts of this “millennial-scale event” on the health of forests has been relatively unknown until now.


Link
Quoting 51. tampabaymatt:



Sar, what is your total for December as of now? I'd imagine over 15 inches. Sorry to hear you're getting more rain.
Not quite at 15 yet but getting there. My current monthly total is 14.49 but it's raining so hard it's kind of overwhelming the rain gauge. It won't show any increase for five minutes then jump up by 0.15". The rain rate is showing zero, which happens when it gets over 10 inches an hour. I've had about 1.30" today and the yard lake is spreading again. Thankfully, the really torrential rain is in cells with lighter rain in between, so it's not as bad as it could be. Still, the state and country are starting to close roads again due to flooding and debris flows over the roads. Lake Eufaula is way up and filled with flood debris, including some impressive sized trees. Doesn't seem quite as bad a Christmas Eve yet though, so we'll see,
Quoting 77. HaoleboySurfEC:

Quite the fetch over the Norweigan Sea. Got to be 50 footers pushing northward. Wow. Not every day you see that set up.




No, it is very unusual. And I lived on that coast. We did have our share of some wild storms, but they are becoming more frequent.
They show 50's in the long term.Still waiting for "winter" in D.C.I still remember the many false alarms in January 2012.
Wavy air patterns mean UK’s extreme storms are here to stay

Special combination

Now climate scientists are saying this isn’t simply bad luck; it’s driven by a combination of global warming and unusual ocean conditions. Worse still, this intense stormy pattern could have a few years to run.

Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, has previously shown that the rapid warming in the Arctic is making the jet stream – the high-level river of air that snakes around the northern hemisphere – more wavy. The warmer Arctic has made the north-south air temperature contrast smaller, which weakens the jet stream, and makes it more prone to being deflected by obstacles in its path, such as mountains or anomalies in ocean temperatures.

Now the UK is starting to feel the full impact of this wavy jet stream, thanks to an unusual cool patch of water in the North Atlantic, probably created by excess melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This winter, the jet stream has been skirting around the bottom of this cold North Atlantic blob and then aligning itself in a south-west to north-east direction, placing northern England right in the crosshairs.


This is backed up by preliminary results from thousands of computer simulations of storm Desmond’s flooding event, carried out by researchers at the University of Oxford and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), suggesting that such heavy rainfall is now 40 per cent more likely to happen than in the past because of global warming.

“I don’t think there has been a combination of conditions similar to the one we’re seeing now because Arctic sea ice loss along with the very warm Arctic are the ‘new game in town’, caused by high greenhouse gas concentrations,” says Francis. “It’s safe to say we’re in uncharted territory.”
Quoting 53. 69Viking:



We have a creek that runs through the property and when there's a lot of rain we know to stay on the house side of the creek on the higher areas. The area I hunt is about 20 miles West of Georgiana off Hwy 106 and by Friday the cold front is forecast to push through with the rain ending by tomorrow. I won't be going up until tomorrow afternoon. I'll use Google Maps on my phone, they generally have good updates on road conditions. I also have the Waze app that allows users to report on road conditions. The forecast Friday thru Monday where I hunt is for dry conditions with highs in the mid 50's and lows in the mid 30's. With the first real cool down of the hunting season I'm going to make every effort I can to get there, might have to take a few detours but hopefully I should be able to make it there.
You should be OK that far west, although you may have to angle over further west and pick up I-65 if the road situation gets worse. The area west of I-65 has had a lot of rain but nothing like we've had further east. I'm not as optimistic about this deep layer southwest flow shutting off quite so quickly, but things should improve by Saturday. Make sure you have enough time to arrive before dark. It's bad enough trying to see the hazards in what's passing for daylight up here. The streetlights have been on for an hour now. The roads with problems are ones where the county or state hasn't got there yet but part of the road is gone or just washing over with water. These won't show up on Google Maps. The water is now incredibly muddy in all the creeks, so water over a road may not look deep or fast when it's both. If you run into something like that, find another route. No rack is worth the risk.
Quoting 84. washingtonian115:

They show 50's in the long term.Still waiting for "winter" in D.C.I still remember the many false alarms in January 2012.
Hey Wash..I remember too...It will happen, but it will seem like forever because of the slow transition.
Quoting 83. Grothar:



No, it is very unusual. And I lived on that coast. We did have our share of some wild storms, but they are becoming more frequent.

As that Churchill chap said in about September 1940:-

"This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the End but maybe; its the end of the beginning!
Quoting 67. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Matt, models show 2 systems crossing FL over the next 7 days one being Sunday and the other being Wednesday. Those 2 systems combined per the latest 12Z Euro show 3" to 6" of rain across FL which would nearly double what is considered average for January as a whole. Could be severe weather next Wednesday across FL so it is important to watch these model trends over the weekend to see if this does indeed verify.

Euro & GFS interestingly show a strong South to North jet streaming across the Gulf next Wednesday which implies a very difluent atmosphere across the Eastern Gulf & FL which equals a significant severe weather threat.



Happy Holidays to all bloggers on wunderground!! I hope you all had a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I hope all New Year's Resolutions come true. The El Nino looks to be strengthening one more time as the SOI Index continues to crash. I believe at one point it was 20+ now -24. WWB along with negative SOI big time = Severe Southeast Winter
Quoting 52. Sfloridacat5:

If you haven't seen it. It's one of the top stories on AOL.

This El Nio is probably getting stronger in 2016
Link


Well, for anyone who's interested in the truth, here is a link to the actual NASA article that is supposedly referenced. Unfortunately, the NASA article doesn't actually say what the AOL headline says it does, but whatever, right?
Didn't break freezing again in S C IL as cloud cover that was supposed to let up stayed in place. Also prob why the teen lows are out of forecast for next two mornings.

At least one good piece of news for metro StL, Alton , IL appears to have dodged the bullet at its downtown riverfront. Saw that StL may now not break '73 record, not sure how accurate that is. Meremac, however is busting its previous records & forecast at Arnold is now a little higher, I-55 may now be threatened with 44 already closed.

Off tomorrow so Happy New Year all WUs!
Quoting 88. PlazaRed:


As that Churchill chap said in about September 1940:-

"This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the End but maybe; its the end of the beginning!


Very long list of his quotes, and they are great -

Link
Quoting 87. hydrus:

Hey Wash..I remember too...It will happen, but it will seem like forever because of the slow transition.
It was February and we were still waiting for a winter miracle.
Quoting 55. PlazaRed:

We seem to have a brace of storms popped up in the equatorial Pacific, first for quite a while.

Rainfall total about an eighth of an inch for December here but we may get a sprinkling before 2016!

It's gonna be a grip of storms, we're talking hella storms.
…I am always ready to learn, although I do not always like being taught.…

Churchill


Quoting 57. Grothar:





Is this what is called a mature healthy cyclone?
98. vis0
To bad some sort of several layers (yards apart) coiled super strong mesh with wider openings higher up in the mesh cannot be added to where the waters will be released. This so some of the pollutants flowing down river due to the force can be filtered out by the mesh.  The wider openings higher up allow water to flow while the lower mesh captures finer pollutants. If created at an angle the heavier pollutants will naturally sink as in water forcing things upward over angles loses its force therefore what made it over the first mesh might not be forced over the 3rd angles mesh.

or

(posting a 3rd time in 2015, who knows some imaginative intelligent kid / person reading it for the first time might think of making it possible)
Too bad we cannot heat up an specially enclosed ...

 ( FULLY enclosed with temperature separating barriers, like a thermos bottle so anything living in the river(s) is not harmed by the heating process)

... areas of the Mississippi and attach portable steam engines, that in turn send the steam heat turning turbine engines created energies toward storage batteries shipped to participating states (ie, California could have saved Hydro by using steam from  flooding that happened a few years ago) to lower energy costs and use cleaner steam energy instead of anything that comes from underground.

ahh that's just crazy talk, next comment...

Have the best possible New Year, ...i wonder if MAX has the top 10 winners as to (soon to be last years) 2015s resolutions???

a reminder that most know but just in case in the flooding or to be flooding  affected areas please pay attention as it may be sunny but flooding be it from the atmosphere or from a levee release still is a dense strong force...water that can EASILY sweep you or a car so read and listen to all upcoming details.
Quoting 93. washingtonian115:

It was February and we were still waiting for a winter miracle.


I lived in the D.C. area (born in Washington D.C.) for 16 years. I remember a few Winters when we received little or no measurable snow.
As a kid, I hated warm Winters or Winters without snow. You couldn't even go ice skating, which really sucked. I loved playing ice hockey.
Quoting 99. Gearsts:




Bring it. Would like to see more in the central Sierra though.
After dealing with rain, often heavy rain, nearly every day in December it appears we will end up just shy of the record wettest December. El Nino is making itself seen here in the PNW. The Seattle forecast calls for nothing but sunshine for the next week.

Wet December just shy of Record

El Nino is coming
I might be to see the Aurora tonight! Woot. Maybe... it should be clear at least, and that's the first place to start.

Per Cliff Mass: Aurora over Washington Tonight

Aurora Forecasts can be found here.
104. vis0

Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:



Because it is in the middle of the Arctic ocean with about a 2 meter thick icecap over the water. The ice moves several miles a day so you would have to keep moving it every day to keep it on position. There are no manned observing sites within hundreds of miles of the pole. However the following is a possibility.


Dear Santa.. Please accept and set up this weatherbug kit and start transmitting observations. Thank you.

vis0:: Dear Santa build a toy that has several lasers placed on solid ground miles away that are angles downward (might need several countries approval for that) but hit each others beam measuring each others temperature and from that beam interaction and figure out the air temperature from the cooling or heating of the node point of laser beams. Hint create a Sat beam a specific µm to imitate a solid at the node and read that fer yer temperature...instead of North Pole its the Node pole.

SANTA:: Sorry vis0 yer on my naughty list for the Node pole joke.

...oh well.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1010 AM HST WED DEC 30 2015

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A low located 1100 miles southwest of Johnston island or 800 miles southeast of majuro is drifting to the west-northwest. Environmental conditions are moderately favorable for gradual development over the next 24 hours. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Friday.




A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90C (SE OF MAJURO)

B. 30/2050Z

C. 2.78N

D. 177.40W

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 WRAP OF .35 YIELDS DT OF
2.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1739Z 2.52N 176.80W SSMI
30/1751Z 2.65N 176.48W WIND

106. vis0

Quoting 31. barbamz:

Thanks for the new entry, doc. Guess the Mississippi flooding will resemble the longe range flooding desaster of our European Rivers Danube and Elbe in 2013: weeks after the big rains the crest of the flood was still causing destruction somewhere far away, amid then beautiful weather ...

Here two nice portraits of our "Frank" from space:


December 29, when bombing out west of Ireland.


Today, December 30, north of Iceland. Source: Wokingham weather.

Top image has a look of perpendicular (planet based) gravity waves on top  of gravity waves
Quoting 93. washingtonian115:

It was February and we were still waiting for a winter miracle.
Gotta Keep the Trust! It shall come soon! January and February are looking at December and just saying we can better, and the heart of the cold temps don't come until mid-January on average.
108. beell
Army Corps opens flood control structure on Mississippi River/nola.com 12/30/15 3:54PM CST

"The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has opened the Old River Overbank Structure southeast of Alexandria to cope with a rising Mississippi River. The river was projected to reach the trigger of 52 feet on Wednesday at the Knox Landing gage."

..."This operation is one of our lessons learned from the 2011 flood that we have incorporated into our emergency response efforts," Mike Stack, Chief of the New Orleans District Emergency Management, said in a statement. "By opening the Overbank Structure now, we are adding another tool to help ensure we safely pass the required flow through the Old River Control Complex."...

(beell learned something too!)
110. vis0

Quoting 52. Sfloridacat5:

If you haven't seen it. It's one of the top stories on AOL.

This El Niño is probably getting stronger in 2016
Link


NASA says 2015's exceptionally intense El Niño will likely get stronger in 2016. Based on satellite images, NASA says this El Niño is shaping up to be as strong as the one from 1997, which may have contributed to the Great Ice Storm of 1998.
SEE ALSO: Deadly floods threaten to reach historic levels
NASA says a side-by-side comparison of this year to 1997 shows there's a lot of warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The agency said: "The images show nearly identical, unusually high sea surface heights along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific: the signature of a big and powerful El Niño."
Scientists don't know exactly how El Niño will take shape in the coming months.
But an advisory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it expects above-average precipitation in the southern U.S. and drier than average conditions in the north.
See more of the effects of El Niño:
Quote:: "NASA says this El Niño is shaping up to be as strong as the one from
1997, which may have contributed to the Great Ice Storm of 1998."

If this leads to a similar pool of energy BUT LATER does that ice storm equate to some form of warmer weather widespread or many super strong at once severe outbreak???
My question is NOT FACT just a thought, so VISIT Patrap's, WXUs & Gov's preparedness pages so IF something happens your  actions become 2nd nature CORRECT actions not WHAT DO i do actions.
Quoting 96. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




More heat headed for the methane leaks.
113. vis0

Quoting 64. ACSeattle:


Cuidado con el vino
El vino?  is that like an inverted El Nino?  so we see 2 of each moisture feed?
Griffin / December 30, 2015 at RS

Angela Fritz of the Capital Weather Gang deserves recognition today. I have seen countless articles written this week regarding the disastrous floods in the Midwest USA. Many have contained droves of stats comparing the current river levels with historic flood heights. Angela is the first to mention a HUGE overlooked factor in this flooding. The rain that fell in this event occurred over just four days. No snow melt, no weeks long rain patterns. This (to me anyway) speaks volumes of how much our situation has changed in regards to atmospheric moisture available. It’s a good read.

Link
Hey folks, in Europe it's already December 31: NYE. Will be a bit different at many places this year, and this due to very different reasons, some of which are closely weather related:

Air pollution due to enduring high pressure in the Mediterranean:
Bah humbug! Italy bans New Year's Eve fireworks
The Local (Italy) Published: 30 Dec 2015 10:27 GMT 01:00
They may be a millennia-old and time-honoured tradition, but cities and towns across Italy are introducing measures to ban or limit customary New Year's Eve firework displays. ...

Warmth and drought:
Swiss regions limit NYE fireworks over fire risk
The Local (Switzerland) Published: 30 Dec 2015 17:15 GMT 01:00
The lack of rain and snow in Switzerland is not just affecting winter tourism, it has also meant restrictions and even bans on the use of fireworks across the country because of the risk of forest fires. ...
The famous Saint Moritz New Year's Eve fireworks display is one of those to be cancelled in Switzerland. ...


Fears of terror:
Belgium terror alert halts New Year fireworks in Brussels
BBC, 2 hours ago
New Year fireworks and festivities have been cancelled in the Belgian capital, Brussels, because of a terror alert.
Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said the decision had been taken "given information we have received". ...


Consideration of traumatizised refugees (although this doesn't mean a ban of our usually very crazy private fireworks which turns quiet towns into a warzone for some minutes every year):
Germany prepares refugees for New Year fireworks over trauma concerns
Deutsche Welle English, Dec 29, 2015
As Germany prepares to welcome in the New Year, refugees are being informed about the fireworks and festivities. Some psychotherapists believe the explosions could trigger memories of the wars from which they fled.
Like millions of revelers around the globe, Germans will welcome in the New Year on Thursday by lighting up the sky with fireworks. But even for Europeans, who are accustomed to beginning January with a bang, the huge scale and rather chaotic nature of German celebrations are incomparable with those in nearby countries, where fireworks are often confined to small gatherings in gardens and organized public events. ...


My own reason for not buying or burning fireworks this year: temporary custody of a nervous tomcat while its owner (my niece) is looking for some snow in the Alps for skiing (probably in vain, see reason No 2 above). Guess I should stop with this sort of fun anyway ...

One country is still very happy with its notorious wild fireworks though: Iceland (but weather might not be favourable everywhere up there):

Best firework weather in North Iceland
News | Iceland Monitor | Tue 29 Dec 2015 | 16.30 GMT
If you're lighting fireworks on New Year's Eve, your best bet weather-wise is North Iceland.
In South Iceland, snowfall and a rigorous wind is predicted, the Westman Islands being particularly bad for weather, but in North Iceland the evening should be clear and calm.
In Reykjavik, there are predictions for snowfall and winds of five metres per second.

Quoting 24. Sfloridacat5:



Here' a webcam drift map from the Nole Pole region.




Link


Here is 2015's map

115. barbamz
No one I mean zero ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, brings more to these threads than you. If WU doesn't Hire you they are fools.
Quoting 117. RobertWC:


115. barbamz
No one I mean zero ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, brings more to these threads than you. If WU doesn't Hire you they are fools.

Eh, Rob, this isn't true. A lot of folks are contributing very valuable stuff in here, including yourself, and I'm learning A LOT from others. It's just that folks from other continents are a bit shy to contribute. And I was myself until during the European flooding in summer 2013 folks in here encouraged me to post more. Since then I'm caught somehow, *sigh* ( it's fun to share weather news though, really). But in the weeks to come I'll have less time, so others should chime in for me.
Is Frank the remnants of Goliath?
CP, 09, 2015123100, , BEST, 0, 27N, 1775W, 30, 1001, TD,



115. barbamz

There is great evidence they are fools. I uploaded a new avatar 2 weeks ago, nothing changed.
But they mine your comments , and not my avatar .

History of IBM

Link
Quoting 120. TropicalAnalystwx13:

CP, 09, 2015123100, , BEST, 0, 27N, 1775W, 30, 1001, TD,




a little late in the season for a TD in the C PAC dont you think
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT
CALIFORNIA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD RAIN ONTO
COASTAL CALIFORNIA FROM POINT CONCEPTION NORTH LATE SUNDAY...WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AS IS MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA
AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS THEN ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDWEEK AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
PERSISTS.
Quoting 118. barbamz:


Eh, Rob, this isn't true. A lot of folks are contributing very valuable stuff in here, including yourself, and I'm learning A LOT from others. It's just that folks from other continents are a bit shy to contribute. And I was myself until during the European flooding in summer 2013 folks in here encouraged me to post more. Since then I'm caught somehow, *sigh* ( it's fun to share weather news though, really). But in the weeks to come I'll have less time, so others should chime in for me.


Horse muffins, you are incredible, and we all know it.
You go girl.
Quoting 121. RobertWC:


115. barbamzThere is great evidence they are fools. I uploaded a new avatar 2 weeks ago, nothing changed.

You are good old ColoradoBob, aren't you? Why did you change your handle anyway.
Quoting 97. HurricaneHunterJoe:






Is this what is called a mature healthy cyclone?

That has to be yanking out some serious katabatic winds from off the Greenland icecap.
We are back near 60F by Sunday here in central SC. Sunny and dry...I think that would be perfect winter weather.

Quoting 84. washingtonian115:

They show 50's in the long term.Still waiting for "winter" in D.C.I still remember the many false alarms in January 2012.
Things are looking up. We've had a nice break in the rain for the last hour, and wind has shifted to the east. That should mean the SW flow is also shifting to the east, and it looks like that's what's happening on radar. Just some light showers downstream, although there's still a blob in the Gulf that might coagulate into something. Unfortunately, the heavier rains moved north as well as east, with most of it falling in the Tallapoosa River watershed. The Lake Martin dam has not had to open more spillway gates since this morning but I expect they will have to by tomorrow. Alabama Power is in a real balancing act between flooding people along the shores of Lake Martin or flooding people downstream. So far, the flooding hasn't been serious. If we can just get an eight hour break in the rain they should be able maintain the lake at its current level of about a foot and a half below flood pool. The rain is moving east from the Lake Martin area now, so things look at least a little hopeful. In case anyone is wondering, the side yard is still flooded. :-)
From September, still good though.

The Onion - Atlantic Ocean Excited to Move Into Beachfront Mansion Soon



WEST PALM BEACH, FL - Admitting it has had its eye on the property for quite some time, the Atlantic Ocean confirmed Monday that it was looking forward to moving into a beautiful beachfront mansion in the near future. "For the longest time it seemed like this place was completely out of reach for me, but I've come a long way in the past few years, and now it's looking more and more like a real possibility," said the body of water, which confided that, after having admired the building's impressive exterior and grounds for so long, it was thrilled at the prospect of finally going inside and exploring all eight bedrooms and 7,500 square feet of living area. "I'm not quite ready yet, but in a couple years or so, I can definitely see myself in there, making the place completely my own. And the little beachside community that the house is located in is just so cute, too - I can't wait to go through and visit all the shops and restaurants." The ocean noted, however, that it might make a few cosmetic changes to the mansion once it moves in, including gutting the lower floor and taking out a few walls.
Currently an unheard of 30.6 F in Fairbanks, Alaska, deep in the interior. They hit 41 today.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
545 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015


WITH SHORT TERM ISSUES OUT OF THE WAY...THINGS BEGIN TO GET VERY
INTERESTING BEGINNING FRIDAY. A RETROGRADING 500MB CLOSED LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ORIENTATED NE TO SW OVER THE
MIDWEST AND ROCKIES WILL BE SQUEEZED WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL SPLIT A DECENT LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC JUST WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST CREATING A REX
BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST. TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN
QUESTION...AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS MODEL GUIDANCE CAN BE
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE PATTERNS...SO RIGHT NOW CURRENT
THINKING IS TIMING MAY BE DELAYED BY 12 TO 24 HOURS OF CURRENT GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS. ONCE THIS LONGWAVE RIDGE IS SPLIT BY THE RETROGRADING
LOW ON SUNDAY/MONDAY IT OPENS UP THE DOOR AT FIRST FOR NORTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO BEGIN PARADING TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON AIRSPACE...THEN ULTIMATELY LOOKS AS IF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE START TO A MORE
TYPICAL EL NINO WINTER WEATHER REGIME. WETTER TIMES LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
Quoting 115. barbamz:

Hey folks, in Europe it's already December 31: NYE. Will be a bit different at many places this year, and this due to very different reasons, some of which are closely weather related:
My left ear is functionally deaf, but loud noises like fireworks reverberate through it and really hurt. Poor Radar Dog is, as you might imagine, terrified of fireworks. I suppose I could go to the city council and demand they outlaw NYE fireworks because my ear will hurt and my dog will be scared. Instead of annoying the other 13,999 people in town, I'll put some earplugs in, and Radar Dog will spend an hour in an interior bathroom with the radio playing soothing music. We'll both survive. It seems a little ridiculous to try to alter an entire population's behavior because of fears of terrorists, refugees, pets, fine particles in the air...ad infinitum. If a place is dry enough fireworks might start a forest fire, ban them. Otherwise, it's one night, and we'll all survive.
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015


.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED INTO THEIR
RESPECTIVE BIASES FOR NEXT WEEK`S SERIES OF TROUGHS BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS EARLY ON. THE GFS IS
STILL SHOWING THE INITIAL SYSTEM COMING IN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE TAKING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THE
OTHER FACTOR FOR MONDAY IS THAT THE GFS STILL SHOWS DECENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW AS THE MOISTURE MOVES IN WHICH IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO RAIN POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT AM FAVORING THE FARTHER
SOUTH SOLUTIONS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MONDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT GFS SOLUTION THOUGH MUCH LIGHTER THAN
WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF IMPULSES COMING IN
TUE INTO WED AND HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME THAN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
PWATS ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AND
ALL THE VARIOUS PARAMETERS (MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES, WIND) ARE ALL
WITHIN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF NORMAL SO FROM THAT STANDPOINT IT`S
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WINTER
STORM EVENT. MODELS DO SHOW SHORT PERIODS OF TIME WHERE THERE IS
GOOD SOUTH FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE TUE/WED INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES BUT DURATION MAY BE LIMITED.
IT SEEMS LIKELY SEASONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL STILL BE 20-30% BELOW
NORMAL BY THE TIME THE LAST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF SUN/MON REMAIN DRY, BUT IT`S STILL EARLY IN THE GAME
AND MODELS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND SOME MORE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
ABC Channel 7 San Francisco
Wednesday, December 30, 2015 02:05PM
LAKE TAHOE -- Officials in drought-stricken California say the water content of the Sierra Nevada snowpack has measured 136 percent of normal for this time of year.

Frank Gehrke of the Department of Water Resource said Wednesday he is encouraged by the manual measurement taken Wednesday in the Central Sierra, which includes Lake Tahoe...

Gehrke's survey followed an electronic measurement last week that put the water content of the snowpack at 112 percent of normal.

Even more snow has fallen since then.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
333 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

A strong 150 kt jet moves into the Eastern Pacific late this
weekend setting the stage for a series of systems to move through
our area. Our first storm arrives late Sunday evening and splits
as it moves over Northern California. Most of the energy dives
southward although some showers will be possible across Northern
California.

If the GFS and ECMWF solutions are correct, a more impressive
system arrives Tuesday along with a decent shot of rain. Breezy
conditions are expected with this front with perhaps borderline
wind advisory criteria in portions of the Central Valley. It is
worth noting that the GEM...an outlier...is currently projecting
most of the energy/precipitation with this system will be to our
south.

Finally, a third system may impact our area almost immediately after
our Tuesday storm though timing and differences exists between the
models. Overall, a very active pattern will be in place next week!
Wilson
Quoting 132. sar2401:

My left ear is functionally deaf, but loud noises like fireworks reverberate through it and really hurt. Poor Radar Dog is, as you might imagine, terrified of fireworks. I suppose I could go to the city council and demand they outlaw NYE fireworks because my ear will hurt and my dog will be scared. Instead of annoying the other 13,999 people in town, I'll put some earplugs in, and Radar Dog will spend an hour in an interior bathroom with the radio playing soothing music. We'll both survive. It seems a little ridiculous to try to alter an entire population's behavior because of fears of terrorists, refugees, pets, fine particles in the air...ad infinitum. If a place is dry enough fireworks might start a forest fire, ban them. Otherwise, it's one night, and we'll all survive.


Fireworks are banned in Nashville. But....as you can imagine, that doesn't stop people. I think the police won't give citations unless whoever sets them off does something stupid and hurts themselves or others. Or lights something on fire.
Quoting 132. sar2401:

Otherwise, it's one night, and we'll all survive.

Sure we'll survive, Sar, lol. Here's Berlin at NYE 2014/15 (long version). Just to make sure what we're talking about.
What do the long-range forecast model have to say about any Artic air masses crossing the United States? Will they bring any ice to the Gulf Coast
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW FAR
INTO THE FUTURE IT STILL IS...THAT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS
ON THE WAY FOR OUR CWA NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT IR/WV
SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN...THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AN INDICATION THAT
THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE EXISTED
ACROSS THAT REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS ARE FINALLY NOW BEING
REFLECTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING EL-NINO
EPISODES. TO THE NORTH...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS THAT ARE MARCHING
EASTWARD ARE NOW BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE MOISTURE/ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AS A 957MB LOW...IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH VERY WARM AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.

THE LATEST GFS AND EURO GLOBAL MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN EACH OTHER...AND THEIR PREVIOUS FEW
RUNS...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS FAR AS THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS CONCERNED. THEY BOTH TAKE A STORM
CENTER...THAT IS NOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
EAST OF JAPAN...STRAIGHT ESE-WARD ACROSS THE OCEAN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CA
COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ABLE TO PULL A RATHER RICH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER. IN FACT...THE LATEST
GFS PWAT FORECAST IS SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING BY NEXT
MONDAY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...WITH PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH
BEING FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SW AZ...WHICH IS AT
NEAR-RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS AND STRONG DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...THUS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INTO THE CHANCE-LIKELY RANGE...AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT. BEHIND THIS 1ST SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST
TWO MORE SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY STRONG JET PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC...PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF THE WIDELY
EXPECTED EL-NINO-INFLUENCED PRECIP SURGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
114 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015

FAIR AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH SOME WARMING AS THE REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST IS SQUEEZED FARTHER
TO THE NORTH BY ONCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CMC MODEL ITERATIONS ARE STICKING TO
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEMS AS THEY
APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC SAY MOST OF THE ENERGY
WITH THE ONCOMING FIRST WAVE WILL DIP SOUTH THROUGH BAJA AND NW
MEXICO...WITH THE FOLLOWING WAVES ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM THE
MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z GFS IS HOLDING ONTO A MORE DIRECT HIT
FOR SOCAL ON MON. AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE INITIAL WAVE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR
THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME.

MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE CONSISTENT THAT SUBSEQUENT WAVES WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PW WITH THESE
SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO ONE INCH RANGE...BUT COLDER
AIR AND BETTER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE...TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY PRECIP RATES AS THEY SWING THROUGH. HOWEVER...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITHOUT A
DEEP...RICH MOISTURE PLUME OR STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.
CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW ON THE TIMING FOR ANY PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIP UNTIL WE GET BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...AND WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SNOWFALL INITIALLY WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MTS...THEN LOWER TO COVER RESORT LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE STRING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK...A
SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REBUILD NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA...LIKELY LEADING TO A DRY WEEKEND.
Read these discussions........do these guys and gals even talk to each other? I'm sticking to when I see the road wet.....I know it has rained!
Quoting 138. pureet1948:

What do the long-range forecast model have to say about any Artic air masses crossing the United States? Will they bring any ice to the Gulf Coast


Do you mean Arctic air mass?
Quoting 142. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Do you mean Arctic air mass?


Oh, yes, I do mean Artic air mass. Well, do any show up in the VERY long-range forecast models?
Quoting 125. barbamz:


You are good old ColoradoBob, aren't you? Why did you change your handle anyway.

An old dead email. Ever since that changed. it's an IBM world , no service . The avatar is just dead as boot. They tell you some moderator will come along and approve it. I have filed 2 of the same image.

This IBM deal needs work.
Nobody , I mean Nobody , is taken care of the avatars here. I offer an image to an office that is filled ghost people.
Quoting 146. RobertWC:

Nobody , I mean Nobody , is taken care of the avatars here. I offer an image to an office that is filled ghost people.

Ask Washi in a WU-Mail, as she is changing her avatars all the time, lol. I think It's actually quite easy if you know which is the right button to push. I got some problems myself when I've changed my avatar just for one Halloween evening a year ago. But if you've figured out how it works it's not a big deal.
I'm out for at least two days. Good night and:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP092015
500 PM HST WED DEC 30 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS FAR SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...2.8N 177.8W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 1850 MI...2975 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
Quoting 149. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP092015
500 PM HST WED DEC 30 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS FAR SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...2.8N 177.8W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 1850 MI...2975 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

wow...this has got to be a record for the date...latest tropical system to form in the Central Pacific, soon to also be the earliest as we get into the new Year
Reuters | Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:57pm EST

One person died and two were injured on Wednesday when a big wave hit a rig belonging to China's Chinese Oilfield Services Ltd that had been drilling at the Statoil-operated Troll field offshore Norway, the Norwegian company said.

The companies were informed at around 5 p.m. local time (11 a.m. ET) on Wednesday of the event. Norway has been experiencing stormy weather since earlier in the day...

Close to 50 people out of 106 staff onboard the COSL Innovator rig, which was damaged during the storm, have been evacuated.

"The weather was rough during the accident, with waves as high as 14 meters and wind speed 25 to 30 meters per second. Strong winds prevented a helicopter from landing on the rig and people had to be lifted," Eileen Brundtland, a spokeswoman at the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority, told Reuters.
Quoting 150. BayFog:


wow...this has got to be a record for the date...latest tropical system to form in the Central Pacific, soon to also be the earliest as we get into the new Year

Latest tropical cyclone to form in the Northern Hemisphere on record, surpassing the old record held by 1954's Alice.

Link

It is also the southernmost-forming tropical cyclone on record in the Northeast Pacific, beating out 1992's Hurricane Ekeka.

Link
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA, CATEGORY TWO (05F)
12:00 PM FST December 31 2015
============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ula, Category Two (989 hPa) located at 15.4S 167.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. Position fair. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from the north. Organization good. Outflow good to the south and east. System lies south of an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 400HPA. Tropical cyclone Ula is being steered to the south southwest by a northeasterly deep layer mean flow. Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding DT=3.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 16.3S 169.2W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 16.9S 170.8W - 45 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 17.6S 175.2W - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Also...
07F is now a tropical depression north of Fiji
Quoting 152. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Latest tropical cyclone on record to form in the Northern Hemisphere, surpassing the old record held by 1954's Alice.


AS long as we don't get a new year's day hurricane in the Atlantic.
Quoting 113. vis0:


El vino?  is that like an inverted El Nino?  so we see 2 of each moisture feed?



No that is The Vine, meaning Mother Nature has fallen off the wagon, and nothing can be considered off the table.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 150. BayFog:


wow...this has got to be a record for the date...latest tropical system to form in the Central Pacific, soon to also be the earliest as we get into the new Year


What I find remarkable about this one is that it is at 3N which is usually too close to the equator for TC formation.

However the Western Pacific is active all 12 months and it's only a matter of time before one forms in that basin on Dec 31. The U.S. Pacific fleet was damaged by a very strong DECEMBER TC in 1944 with three destroyers lost.
Quoting 138. pureet1948:

What do the long-range forecast model have to say about any Artic air masses crossing the United States? Will they bring any ice to the Gulf Coast


Arctic Air masses are part of our climatology down to 25N or so. Ones intense enough to bring ice to the Gulf Coast are rare but not unheard of. An outbreak in the 1840s is said to have resulted in ice floes being discharged into the Gulf from the Mississippi River. If one is forecast for TX (TX saying.. "tain't nuttn 'tween us and the NORTH POLE but a bobwire fence] don't be unduly alarmed.

159. Jelf
The following Google + GIS map shows NOAA flood level forecasts (pink = major, red = moderate). To see a NOAA graph showing the water level forecast, (1) click any dot and then (2) click the link in the popup. When the map opens it is centered at St. Louis but can be dragged anywhere.

http://www.mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php?ll=38.4 66493,-90.263672&z=8&t=m,Forecast_river_stage&stre etview=off&q=http://www.propertylinemaps.com/p/pub lic_land_map/USA/USA_rain_flood.txt

The map is displayed by Gmap4 which is an enhanced Google map viewer I developed. Each time you open the map or turn on an overlay layer, the most recent information flows from the federal GIS (Geographical Information System) server to your screen.

You can also turn on a bunch of other overlays with data from federal GIS servers. Click the basemap button (next to the “Menu” button) and then look under the “Overlay” heading. Overlays with a number in front of them are ‘on’. The highest numbered overlay is on ‘top’.

You can click on a symbol in the ‘top’ layer and see a popup with all the data the GIS server has for the thing that you clicked.

To see the **map legend** and get other tips for using the map, click "About this map" in the upper left corner of the map.

Want to know how to make your own custom map link that will open the map centered where you want and showing the data you want to see? Click "About this map" and read the tips.
Quoting 107. Climate175:

Gotta Keep the Trust! It shall come soon! January and February are looking at December and just saying we can better, and the heart of the cold temps don't come until mid-January on average.


The very warm December of 1982 was followed by the blizzard of February 1983.
Another casualty of climate change... Seabirds are grounded in Alaska. Wind brought them onshore and they need water to take off and land. And Gro's famous - the quoted "the blob" in the article.

Seabirds Grounded in Alaska
Quoting 84. washingtonian115:

They show 50's in the long term.Still waiting for "winter" in D.C.I still remember the many false alarms in January 2012.


GFS trend is for cooler by mid January, perhaps a below normal week midmonth. (this is beyond its skill level though)

I have never seen the grass in DC this green at the end of December. Our local soccer field looks like it normally does in late March. Some of the annual bluegrass (a notorious lawn weed esp in golf greens) is even starting to seed which normally happens in April. (this grass is ANNUAL normally dead by June and returns from seeds every October.. about the time the crabgrass dies)

Even the warm season grasses e.g. Zoysia and Bermuda are showing a few tips of green. those areas though are still 98% brown but normally they are 100% without a scrap of growth.

I would send pix but upload still isn't working for me from phone or any computer. (it used to!!)
Quoting 141. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Read these discussions........do these guys and gals even talk to each other? I'm sticking to when I see the road wet.....I know it has rained!


There has been a considerable discrepancy among San Fran, LA, and San Diego. NWS LOX have high surf warnings for Bakersfield earlier today, just a Web map error, I presume.

We had freeze warnings and fire danger here today, seemed an odd combination.



164. flsky
Makes perfect sense to me.

Quoting 95. RobertWC:

…I am always ready to learn, although I do not always like being taught.…

Churchill
Quoting 154. Dakster:



AS long as we don't get a new year's day hurricane in the Atlantic.


Nah, we'd be fine with it as long as it doesn't hit land. :^)
Quoting 152. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Latest tropical cyclone to form in the Northern Hemisphere on record, surpassing the old record held by 1954's Alice.

Link

It is also the southernmost-forming tropical cyclone on record in the Northeast Pacific, beating out 1992's Hurricane Ekeka.

Link


Tropical Storm Zeta doesn't count?
Quoting 103. Seattleite:

I might be to see the Aurora tonight! Woot. Maybe... it should be clear at least, and that's the first place to start.

Per Cliff Mass: Aurora over Washington Tonight

Aurora Forecasts can be found here.


Well, in my neck of the woods in MD we're running a competition to see if we can get thicker fog than London. :P
Quoting 158. georgevandenberghe:



Arctic Air masses are part of our climatology down to 25N or so. Ones intense enough to bring ice to the Gulf Coast are rare but not unheard of. An outbreak in the 1840s is said to have resulted in ice floes being discharged into the Gulf from the Mississippi River. If one is forecast for TX (TX saying.. "tain't nuttn 'tween us and the NORTH POLE but a bobwire fence] don't be unduly alarmed.





Here's what wxman57 on the KHOU.com Weather Forum had to say about this. Note: he's responding to another forum member called Big Thicket. Please pay close attention'

"I'm not sure which Bastardi video you're referring to. I'm currently watching his rather lengthy video recorded last Saturday. When I mention "cross-Polar flow", I'm alluding to the source region of the air in northern and western Canada. This is where the cold fronts that eventually reach Texas come from. When northern Canada is fed by flow coming from northern Sibera (cross-Polar flow), the temperatures in Canada can get extremely cold. This cold air eventually makes its way south to Texas.

However, lacking the cross-Polar flow, the air in Canada comes more from the Pacific Ocean, meaning temperatures in Canada are often warmer than normal. That's what Joe is saying in his video - that temperatures in Canada may be a little above normal but temperatures across the U.S. will be below normal due primarily to increased storminess and precipitation. This is typical of strong El Nino winters.

I see Joe is talking about long-range signs of an Arctic air outbreak, but the pattern he's discussing would shunt the Arctic air across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley and East U.S. Coast rather than south to the Gulf Coast. We'll get some of that colder air at times, which could lead to one or more ice events in the Houston area."


wxman57 Global Moderator. Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)

Frightening how he seems so sure about that. Anyway, that's what our local wx geeks think. What does Wunderground have to say?




Private message
Quoting 165. Articuno:



Nah, we'd be fine with it as long as it doesn't hit land. :^)


If you think land is a barrier for this blog wanting storms, you don't know this blog.

/8 years going strong

/cynic going strong
Looks like Sar's area is/will be getting more rain tonight.
At least he won't be have to be dragging the hoses around like he had to do all summer!
Unreal rain in the south/central US lately.
Don't remember the last time the mighty Mississippi was flooding in January.
I'm sure/hope it won't make it to central Texas.

Quoting 138. pureet1948:

What do the long-range forecast model have to say about any Artic air masses crossing the United States? Will they bring any ice to the Gulf Coast
Kinda of the same here in SW FL. I have not had to use my lawn sprinklers yet this fall/winter.
Usually by mid November, they need to be turned on.

Quoting 162. georgevandenberghe:



GFS trend is for cooler by mid January, perhaps a below normal week midmonth. (this is beyond its skill level though)

I have never seen the grass in DC this green at the end of December. Our local soccer field looks like it normally does in late March. Some of the annual bluegrass (a notorious lawn weed esp in golf greens) is even starting to seed which normally happens in April. (this grass is ANNUAL normally dead by June and returns from seeds every October.. about the time the crabgrass dies)

Even the warm season grasses e.g. Zoysia and Bermuda are showing a few tips of green. those areas though are still 98% brown but normally they are 100% without a scrap of growth.

I would send pix but upload still isn't working for me from phone or any computer. (it used to!!)

Quoting 170. swflurker:

Looks like Sar's area is/will be getting more rain tonight.
At least he won't be have to be dragging the hoses around like he had to do all summer!
Unreal rain in the south/central US lately.
Don't remember the last time the mighty Mississippi was flooding in January.
knew I forgot something better turn that hose off before he floats on out into the gom
The results of the first snow survey this winter for Oregon (and Washington) came out. All areas in Oregon are reporting above average snow pack and there's more snow now than there was at any time last winter. In an El Nino year we tend to have warmer, drier late winters and springs as the storms head south to California. We'll see what happens.

Quoting 173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

knew I forgot something better turn that hose off before he floats on out into the gom


What?
Quoting 172. swflurker:

Kinda of the same here in SW FL. I have not had to use my lawn sprinklers yet this fall/winter.
Usually by mid November, they need to be turned on.




Considering much of FL, including SW, has had a few months of record warmth and very dry conditions, your lawn would be dead if you hadn't been running your sprinklers.
geez Mississippi river has risen 13 ft above flood stage and STILL rising,the river wont crest until Thursday and the record flood level is 14 feet..they think it will break that record this week..prayers for the people being flooded out there.
More evacuations in the North Sea..

Extreme Weather in Other on December 31 2015 10:28 AM (UTC).

More than 200 workers were evacuated by helicopter in the early hours of this morning from BP Norway's Valhall field in the North Sea. The evacuation was a precautionary measure taken as a 110m long Eide Marine Services barge, Eide Barge 33, became adrift unmanned putting an accommodation platform and a Maersk Drilling rig at risk. Four helicopters were sent from Stavanger airport to the Valhall field and a total of 235 people have been evacuated as a precautionary measure from the oil field development. The barge is understood to have become unattached in rough weather while being towed by a tug. Eide Marine, the company that owns the barge, said that it is trying to track down and take control of the errant ship. Other rigs in the area, including one operated by ConocoPhillips, are monitoring the situation.

The thermometer reached 88 degrees in Naples yesterday. That marks the 11th consecutive day to see a high and/or high minimum temperature record here, and the 20th this month. 17 days this month have averaged 10 degrees or more above normal, including the last ten straight. For the month, Naples is running 9.2 degrees above normal, and with today's expected high of 86, that should bump up another tick or two. Temperatures are expected to drop back a bit this weekend, though they'll still be above normal...
Quoting 158. georgevandenberghe:



Arctic Air masses are part of our climatology down to 25N or so. Ones intense enough to bring ice to the Gulf Coast are rare but not unheard of. An outbreak in the 1840s is said to have resulted in ice floes being discharged into the Gulf from the Mississippi River. If one is forecast for TX (TX saying.. "tain't nuttn 'tween us and the NORTH POLE but a bobwire fence] don't be unduly alarmed.




I have seen the pictures from the 1980's that had the Gulf Frozen for a ways off of the beach. It was taken from the helicopters that fly out to the oil rigs and was hung up in the heliport near Cameron LA.
Quoting 179. Skyepony:

More evacuations in the North Sea..

Extreme Weather in Other on December 31 2015 10:28 AM (UTC).

More than 200 workers were evacuated by helicopter in the early hours of this morning from BP Norway's Valhall field in the North Sea. The evacuation was a precautionary measure taken as a 110m long Eide Marine Services barge, Eide Barge 33, became adrift unmanned putting an accommodation platform and a Maersk Drilling rig at risk. Four helicopters were sent from Stavanger airport to the Valhall field and a total of 235 people have been evacuated as a precautionary measure from the oil field development. The barge is understood to have become unattached in rough weather while being towed by a tug. Eide Marine, the company that owns the barge, said that it is trying to track down and take control of the errant ship. Other rigs in the area, including one operated by ConocoPhillips, are monitoring the situation.



Chaos as huge wave kills Norway oil rig worker

A giant wave slammed into Norwegian oil rig COSL Innovator in the North Sea on Wednesday evening, killing one person. The rig is now heading toward the coast, with workers being evacuated.

The fatal accident happened during a storm in the Troll oil field off the coast of Bergen, an area hit by extreme weather conditions on Wednesday, with waves up to 14 meters high.

“We received a message that the rig had been hit by a powerful wave, that the rig had been damaged, and there were some injuries. It subsequently emerged that there were two minor injuries and one fatality,” Nils-Ole Sunde of the South Norway Central Coast Guard (Hovedredningssentralen Sør-Norge) told NRK.

More >>
Quoting 168. pureet1948:




Here's what wxman57 on the KHOU.com Weather Forum had to say about this. Note: he's responding to another forum member called Big Thicket. Please pay close attention'

"I'm not sure which Bastardi video you're referring to. I'm currently watching his rather lengthy video recorded last Saturday. When I mention "cross-Polar flow", I'm alluding to the source region of the air in northern and western Canada. This is where the cold fronts that eventually reach Texas come from. When northern Canada is fed by flow coming from northern Sibera (cross-Polar flow), the temperatures in Canada can get extremely cold. This cold air eventually makes its way south to Texas.

However, lacking the cross-Polar flow, the air in Canada comes more from the Pacific Ocean, meaning temperatures in Canada are often warmer than normal. That's what Joe is saying in his video - that temperatures in Canada may be a little above normal but temperatures across the U.S. will be below normal due primarily to increased storminess and precipitation. This is typical of strong El Nino winters.

I see Joe is talking about long-range signs of an Arctic air outbreak, but the pattern he's discussing would shunt the Arctic air across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley and East U.S. Coast rather than south to the Gulf Coast. We'll get some of that colder air at times, which could lead to one or more ice events in the Houston area."


wxman57 Global Moderator. Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)

Frightening how he seems so sure about that. Anyway, that's what our local wx geeks think. What does Wunderground have to say?




Private message


Why would that be frightening?
December 2015, the month the climate struck back.

Quoting 181. Neapolitan:

The thermometer reached 88 degrees in Naples yesterday. That marks the 11th consecutive day to see a high and/or high minimum temperature record here, and the 20th this month. 17 days this month have averaged 10 degrees or more above normal, including the last ten straight. For the month, Naples is running 9.2 degrees above normal, and with today's expected high of 86, that should bump up another tick or two. Temperatures are expected to drop back a bit this weekend, though they'll still be above normal...


This is really insane. We might not wonder of 10F anomalies in a continental climate like in Siberia or even the Midwest, but in Florida....
Happy New Year
GFS has a storm in the perfect position...but because their is no cold air to be found it will be another wasteful rain storm.Still waiting for "winter" here in the mid-atlantic..Spring break I mean the Holiday season is almost over.
This could be interesting next week for Florida.
Quoting 187. washingtonian115:

GFS has a storm in the perfect position...but because their is no cold air to be found it will be another wasteful rain storm.Still waiting for "winter" here in the mid-atlantic..Spring break I mean the Holiday season is almost over.
06z GFS showed this, it showed highs in the mid-upper 30s while this was happening, so I would assume if it happened it would be wet snow.
Quoting 136. Astrometeor:



Fireworks are banned in Nashville. But....as you can imagine, that doesn't stop people. I think the police won't give citations unless whoever sets them off does something stupid and hurts themselves or others. Or lights something on fire.


Good Old Year's Night to everybody!

It's 80, feeling like 83, very cloudy and looking to be a showery night here on the island today.

I only wish fireworks were all we had to deal with when celebrating the new year here on St. Thomas. At about 11:45 PM every village (read island) idiot that owns a weapon pulls it out and starts firing. This will go on until about 1:30 AM or longer. It strikes such fear in me, not only because of the dangers of having these weapons around me (and some in very close proximity) but the fact that each of those bullets that go up, must come down. Some years it has rained bullets in the village I live in. So you either make sure you are inside one of the two bars open or home before the carnage starts. One of these days someone is going to get seriously hurt or worse. It really does put a damper on the celebrations for me.

Link Go to minute 4:10 and that will give you very small idea of what goes on (not my area of the island). Multiply that 100 times and that's what we get where we live coming from up in the hills. I've had many a tourist ask me why they couldn't see the fireworks the next morning.

Anyway, barring my rant, I do hope that all of you have a wonderful evening, and stay safe!

Lindy

I'm hoping we can get a decent snowstorm or two here in Greenville, SC in the coming months. Some of the long range models have highs at least in the mid 40s here in mid to late January so that is a sign that maybe we will be finally kicking this above normal stuff out the window soon! Now we just need enough cold air in place to have a decent snow. It did not snow much here last winter. Only about an inch overall in my area of town (Mauldin) We did have decent snows in the year before that (2013/2014) as we had about 6 inches overall in January/February.

Eric
Quoting 179. Skyepony:

More evacuations in the North Sea..

Extreme Weather in Other on December 31 2015 10:28 AM (UTC).

More than 200 workers were evacuated by helicopter in the early hours of this morning from BP Norway's Valhall field in the North Sea. The evacuation was a precautionary measure taken as a 110m long Eide Marine Services barge, Eide Barge 33, became adrift unmanned putting an accommodation platform and a Maersk Drilling rig at risk. Four helicopters were sent from Stavanger airport to the Valhall field and a total of 235 people have been evacuated as a precautionary measure from the oil field development. The barge is understood to have become unattached in rough weather while being towed by a tug. Eide Marine, the company that owns the barge, said that it is trying to track down and take control of the errant ship. Other rigs in the area, including one operated by ConocoPhillips, are monitoring the situation.


Good morning Skye..The chances of them " taking control " that barge in rough weather are slim, and it is extremely dangerous. Hopefully the barge has a known location, otherwise it is a hazard to other ships and rigs. We tried snagging a 360 ft hopper barge in Dover Bay with 12 footers rolling in, almost lost 4 men...Be nightime didnt help much.
NWS Melbourne

THIS YEAR (2015) WILL BE THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR ALL PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THIS DECEMBER WILL ALSO BE
THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RANKINGS AS OF THE 29TH FOR DECEMBER AND
2015...

DECEMBER:
SITE: AVG TEMP(F): RANK: PREVIOUS/CURRENT RECORD:
DAB 70.2 2ND WARMEST 70.9 DEC 1931 (RECORDS BEGAN 1923)
MCO 71.3 TIES WARMEST* 71.3 DEC 1971 (RECORDS BEGAN 1892)
MLB 73.6 WARMEST 70.4 DEC 1971 (RECORDS BEGAN 1937)
VRB 73.9 WARMEST 71.4 DEC 2006 (RECORDS BEGAN 1942)

*ORLANDO PROJECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD

2015:

SITE: AVG TEMP(F): RANK: PREVIOUS RECORD:
DAB 73.7 WARMEST 73.1 1990 (RECORDS BEGAN 1923)
MCO 75.5 WARMEST 74.9 1990 (RECORDS BEGAN 1892)
MLB 75.4 WARMEST 74.6 2007 (RECORDS BEGAN 1937)
VRB 76.2 WARMEST 75.3 1990 (RECORDS BEGAN 1942)

The remnants of this front have stalled right over me so it's still raining. I'm at 2.27" since yesterday, which brings me to 15.52" for the month. The rain has been mostly light with a few moderate bursts so things haven't gotten much worse in terms of local flooding. The rain is clearing from the northern sections of the state, which should help the situation with the big reservoirs there. This front should finally push out of here by late Friday as another trough amplifies and pushes the front southward...or at least that's the theory. Could get windy as well, which means more trees will come down. Any gust over 15 mph brings a call over the radio for a volunteer fire department to come out and chainsaw another one out of a roadway. I think the ground has now reached a point of maximum saturation. My lake is moving down the driveway, and my neighbor's lake is starting to move in this direction. I knew I should have bought that canoe when I had the chance. :-)

Quoting 195. sar2401:

The remnants of this front have stalled right over me so it's still raining. I'm at 2.27" since yesterday, which brings me to 15.52" for the month. The rain has been mostly light with a few moderate bursts so things haven't gotten much worse in terms of local flooding. The rain is clearing from the northern sections of the state, which should help the situation with the big reservoirs there. This front should finally push out of here by late Friday as another trough amplifies and pushes the front southward...or at least that's the theory. Could get windy as well, which means more trees will come down. Any gust over 15 mph brings a call over the radio for a volunteer fire department to come out and chainsaw another one out of a roadway. I think the ground has now reached a point of maximum saturation. My lake is moving down the driveway, and my neighbor's lake is starting to move in this direction. I knew I should have bought that canoe when I had the chance. :-)


You will likely get alot more rain Sar..Be on guard.
Quoting 198. CaribBoy:








Let's hope 2016 will be good to you!
Quoting 108. beell:

Army Corps opens flood control structure on Mississippi River/nola.com 12/30/15 3:54PM CST

"The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has opened the Old River Overbank Structure southeast of Alexandria to cope with a rising Mississippi River. The river was projected to reach the trigger of 52 feet on Wednesday at the Knox Landing gage."

..."This operation is one of our lessons learned from the 2011 flood that we have incorporated into our emergency response efforts," Mike Stack, Chief of the New Orleans District Emergency Management, said in a statement. "By opening the Overbank Structure now, we are adding another tool to help ensure we safely pass the required flow through the Old River Control Complex."...

(beell learned something too!)
That's interesting.
Quoting 191. LindyVirginIslander:



Good Old Year's Night to everybody!

It's 80, feeling like 83, very cloudy and looking to be a showery night here on the island today.

I only wish fireworks were all we had to deal with when celebrating the new year here on St. Thomas. At about 11:45 PM every village (read island) idiot that owns a weapon pulls it out and starts firing. This will go on until about 1:30 AM or longer. It strikes such fear in me, not only because of the dangers of having these weapons around me (and some in very close proximity) but the fact that each of those bullets that go up, must come down. Some years it has rained bullets in the village I live in. So you either make sure you are inside one of the two bars open or home before the carnage starts. One of these days someone is going to get seriously hurt or worse. It really does put a damper on the celebrations for me.

Link Go to minute 4:10 and that will give you very small idea of what goes on (not my area of the island). Multiply that 100 times and that's what we get where we live coming from up in the hills. I've had many a tourist ask me why they couldn't see the fireworks the next morning.

Anyway, barring my rant, I do hope that all of you have a wonderful evening, and stay safe!

Lindy


Unfortunately, this happens in every urban area in the US as well. The spent rounds also kill a couple of people every NYE as well. There's a system called ShotSpotter that helps reduce the problem. I was on a task force of agencies from all over the Bay Area when it was first deployed to East Palo Alto, an area with hundreds of rounds being fired a minute on NYE. There were about 300 of us on the streets, and the system could detect the location of gunfire down to street level in about a second. We were able to arrest 10 suspects, some still in the act of shooting. Once the word got out on the street what was happening, things quieted down pretty quick. That system can be rented and deployed there, assuming the local police wanted to do so. Having seen the local cops in action, there's probably not much chance of that unless you citizens get in an uproar about this. Keep your head down tonight. Guns don't scare me. Idiots with guns scare me.
Rain total for 2015 at the meteo france station : 458 mm. Lowest value ever recorded. Hopefully it's just because of El Nino and not climate change..
Quoting 196. hydrus:

You will likely get alot more rain Sar..Be on guard.
The moisture fetch from the Gulf is still there, and the flow will keep riding the front until it gets pushed south. The moist air moving out has been forecast to happen multiple times in the last 10 days, and it has taken way longer than forecast for it to actually happen. This trough coming down late tonight and tomorrow is supposed to be dry, but I'm afraid it may help to amplify the moist flow still here. As long as the rain doesn't get heavier, and as long as we keep getting occasional breaks, things shouldn't get worse. I wish I believed that was actually going to be the case though.
Quoting 202. CaribBoy:

Rain total for 2015 at the meteo france station : 458 mm. Lowest value ever recorded. Hopefully it's just because of El Nino and not climate change..
From one of the biggest rain whiners on the blog to the other big rain whiner, I can assure you that things do change, and sometimes a lot more than you want them to change. :-)
We finally got some decent rain along the NWFL Coastline. I dumped 3" of rain out of my rain gauge before going to sleep last night which was about 2 days worth of rains with most of it coming yesterday. I'll check it when I get home before I head North and see how much is in it from last night's and today's rains.
When you upload an image for your avatar, be sure to tick the spot next to "make this my primary portrait."

Also, IBM Buyus is scheduled for January. We still got TWCompany as overlords. It's obvious some changes are happening already, in anticipation of the Poofus.
Quoting 186. maxcrc:



This is really insane. We might not wonder of 10F anomalies in a continental climate like in Siberia or even the Midwest, but in Florida....
Happy New Year
The average temperature in December here in SE Alabama is 48.7 degrees. The average for December, 2015 through 12/30 is 62.7. That's a 14 degree anomaly, and we're generally not thought of as being in a continental climate. Even all this rain hasn't changed that much, with a high of 72 yesterday and 61 this morning. I don't even think that kind of anomaly is possible here in summer. We'd have to average highs of 100 plus every day to hit it. Well, it hasn't been possible in the past. Who knows now.
Post162 My grass is as green as it was back in June with my roses as bright as ever.The bees have been greatful though and haven't let the opportunity to pollinate pass.
Wxrisk still saying that the teleconnections are favoring a snowstorm around Jan 11-12th. This is the Euro ensemble he showed.
Quoting 205. 69Viking:

We finally got some decent rain along the NWFL Coastline. I dumped 3" of rain out of my rain gauge before going to sleep last night which was about 2 days worth of rains with most of it coming yesterday. I'll check it when I get home before I head North and see how much is in it from last night's and today's rains.
Things don't look to change much today. You'll have to go through a narrow band of rain running from eastern Escambia all the way to me and then into North Carolina. The rain has pretty much ended from I-65 west, so your hunting camp should be OK. I haven't checked road conditions this morning, but the gene pool was reduced last night as someone decided to drive around the road closed signs and drove himself right into a swollen creek. It's still overcast everywhere, and the cold air advection is pretty stiff north of this front. It's 46 and windy up in Tuscaloosa. You should get some sun tomorrow. I don't know when I'll ever see the sun again. Good luck on the hunt.
On the low pressure in Iceland:
http://icelandweather.blog.is/blog/icelandweather /entry/2162944/
Quoting 184. Qazulight:



Why would that be frightening?
There's always a Bad Moon about to rise over Houston... :-)
Quoting 209. Climate175:

Wxrisk still saying that the teleconnections are favoring a snowstorm around Jan 11-12th. This is the Euro ensemble he showed.
Did you say the 12th? I have a meeting in N.Y.C that weekend! Thank goodness its nearly 2 weeks out.
Quoting 213. washingtonian115:

Did you say the 12th? I have a meeting in N.Y.C that weekend! Thank goodness its nearly 2 weeks out.
Yea, plenty of time to see changes.
Quoting 209. Climate175:
Wxrisk still saying that the teleconnections are favoring a snowstorm around Jan 11-12th.
So does CrownWeather - well, not in that exact fashion, but definitely a change in weather patterns, leading to stormy, possibly mild wintry conditions across the South.
Quoting 194. fmbill:

NWS Melbourne

THIS YEAR (2015) WILL BE THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR ALL PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THIS DECEMBER WILL ALSO BE
THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RANKINGS AS OF THE 29TH FOR DECEMBER AND
2015...

DECEMBER:
SITE: AVG TEMP(F): RANK: PREVIOUS/CURRENT RECORD:
DAB 70.2 2ND WARMEST 70.9 DEC 1931 (RECORDS BEGAN 1923)
MCO 71.3 TIES WARMEST* 71.3 DEC 1971 (RECORDS BEGAN 1892)
MLB 73.6 WARMEST 70.4 DEC 1971 (RECORDS BEGAN 1937)
VRB 73.9 WARMEST 71.4 DEC 2006 (RECORDS BEGAN 1942)

*ORLANDO PROJECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD

2015:

SITE: AVG TEMP(F): RANK: PREVIOUS RECORD:
DAB 73.7 WARMEST 73.1 1990 (RECORDS BEGAN 1923)
MCO 75.5 WARMEST 74.9 1990 (RECORDS BEGAN 1892)
MLB 75.4 WARMEST 74.6 2007 (RECORDS BEGAN 1937)
VRB 76.2 WARMEST 75.3 1990 (RECORDS BEGAN 1942)




Wasn't it forecasted on here for Central Fl to be cooler than normal with much above rain with severe weather and tornadoes due to El Nino? Instead it's the warmest ever. LOL...
Quoting 210. sar2401:

Things don't look to change much today. You'll have to go through a narrow band of rain running from eastern Escambia all the way to me and then into North Carolina. The rain has pretty much ended from I-65 west, so your hunting camp should be OK. I haven't checked road conditions this morning, but the gene pool was reduced last night as someone decided to drive around the road closed signs and drove himself right into a swollen creek. It's still overcast everywhere, and the cold air advection is pretty stiff north of this front. It's 46 and windy up in Tuscaloosa. You should get some sun tomorrow. I don't know when I'll ever see the sun again. Good luck on the hunt.


Thanks! One of my hunting buddies drove back from camp yesterday and one is driving back this morning so I'll have a good report on road conditions. Looks like our camp area avoided the real heavy rains so with it drying out starting today I think I'll have a pretty good 4 day hunt. Hopefully by tomorrow you'll get some sunlight, been a long time since we've had any sunlight with dry conditions.
Roses here actually developed black spot because of the incredible humidity. I just don't normally treat them in the winter. They should love the sun, drier air and cooler temps of the next 7-10 days. Lows in low 30's, highs 50's and low 60's with abundant sunshine (finally). So we are getting November to start out January here in central SC.

Happy New Year!

Quoting 208. washingtonian115:

Post162 My grass is as green as it was back in June with my roses as bright as ever.The bees have been greatful though and haven't let the opportunity to pollinate pass.
Climate175- I actually have it marked on my calender, Jan 11-14 as stormy in the SE, then on Jan 18-20, I have flooding in/around SE Louisiana. So, we'll see.
Unbelievable!
The Central Pacific basin shows us another surprise, the latest forming tropical cyclone on record.
What happens if, a big if, TD Nine-C manages to strengthen into a tropical storm at 1800 UTC today, would it become the latest forming named storm ever, and would the record be never broken?
Also, if TD Nine-C strengthens to a TS in the CPac after January 1 00UTC, would its ACE (I'm not sure if it's officially recorded or not) be included in the 2016 season?
Quoting 167. Xyrus2000:



Well, in my neck of the woods in MD we're running a competition to see if we can get thicker fog than London. :P
I don't know if the CME helped anyone see an aurora further south than normal but it's absolutely killed radio propagation. Usually it will increase it on parts of the HF bands, but it was nothing but noise on everything from 80 meters to 10 last night. It's a little better this morning, but these are not the kinds of RF conditions that normally lead to good aurora spotting.
Quoting 220. Bobbyweather:

Unbelievable!
The Central Pacific basin shows us another surprise, the latest forming tropical cyclone on record.
What happens if, a big if, TD Nine-C manages to strengthen into a tropical storm at 1800 UTC today, would it become the latest forming named storm ever, and would the record be never broken?

Considering there would only be six hours left in the UTZ day, it seems highly improbable any other storm could break that record. :-)
Quoting 218. HaoleboySurfEC:

Roses here actually developed black spot because of the incredible humidity. I just don't normally treat them in the winter. They should love the sun, drier air and cooler temps of the next 7-10 days. Lows in low 30's, highs 50's and low 60's with abundant sunshine (finally). So we are getting November to start out January here in central SC.

Happy New Year!


My roses are developing mildew, although I still have about 100 blooms open,,,and I don't even have that many rose bushes. They are blooming more vigorously than what I usually see in May, and I haven't fertilized them since August. My popcorn bush is now blooming, and one of my azaleas has a couple of blooms. That usually happens in early March. Even my gardenias have buds that look like they are almost ready to pop, something I would have thought impossible before this month. A real hard freeze in the next 10 days or so would be disastrous for a lot of the plants. That doesn't looks likely, but I also wouldn't have thought it likely I'd end up with more than 15 inches of rain this month 10 days ago. :-)
When the warm air flowed up to the North Pole where did all the frigid arctic air go?
Quoting 211. hungurdiskar:

On the low pressure in Iceland:
http://icelandweather.blog.is/blog/icelandweather /entry/2162944/


Thanks for the link--that's cool!
Quoting 217. 69Viking:



Thanks! One of my hunting buddies drove back from camp yesterday and one is driving back this morning so I'll have a good report on road conditions. Looks like our camp area avoided the real heavy rains so with it drying out starting today I think I'll have a pretty good 4 day hunt. Hopefully by tomorrow you'll get some sunlight, been a long time since we've had any sunlight with dry conditions.
I don't think I'll see much sun tomorrow but I'm sure hoping for sun on Saturday. The high on Saturday is supposed to be only 52, which is colder than most of the lows in December. You'll get good use out of your thermals on this hunt. The temperature is down two degrees to 59 from 61 at 8:00 am, so maybe the drier air is starting to erode the rain shield. Hope springs eternal. :-)
Quoting 216. luvtogolf:



Wasn't it forecasted on here for Central Fl to be cooler than normal with much above rain with severe weather and tornadoes due to El Nino? Instead it's the warmest ever. LOL...

Yes...but not until Jan thru March timeframe. In fact, December was expected to be warmer than normal.
Quoting 212. sar2401:

There's always a Bad Moon about to rise over Houston... :-)


This is a Bad moon.
Quoting 224. weathergirl2001:

When the warm air flowed up to the North Pole where did all the frigid arctic air go?
It didn't "go" anywhere. The storm named Frank in Europe drew warm air up from the Atlantic and warmed the air near the North Pole. As shown on this graphic, it wasn't some kind of widespread heat wave, and the temperature above freezing at the Pole on Wednesday was estimated from satellites, since there are no weather stations at the North Pole. As Frank has moved further east, the flow of relatively warmer air has ceased at the Pole. It's currently -4F at Barrow, and the temperature at the Pole should be at least ten degrees colder.

Quoting 227. fmbill:


Yes...but not until Jan thru March timeframe. In fact, December was expected to be warmer than normal.


Not according to the CPC.
Google's New Year's Eve Doodle looks neat!
Quoting 201. sar2401:

Unfortunately, this happens in every urban area in the US as well. The spent rounds also kill a couple of people every NYE as well. There's a system called ShotSpotter that helps reduce the problem. I was on a task force of agencies from all over the Bay Area when it was first deployed to East Palo Alto, an area with hundreds of rounds being fired a minute on NYE. There were about 300 of us on the streets, and the system could detect the location of gunfire down to street level in about a second. We were able to arrest 10 suspects, some still in the act of shooting. Once the word got out on the street what was happening, things quieted down pretty quick. That system can be rented and deployed there, assuming the local police wanted to do so. Having seen the local cops in action, there's probably not much chance of that unless you citizens get in an uproar about this. Keep your head down tonight. Guns don't scare me. Idiots with guns scare me.


Makes you want to be in a bullet proof vault for a few minutes before and after NYE.

233. bwi
Tropical depression soaking parts of Fiji tonight (their time). Now we just need ULA to stay away to the south.
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/fijicomp/loop/an imated_fij.gif

Heatwave(sic) over... normal is 66/43, last time I saw over 66 was 12/18(71.5f)
Quoting 207. sar2401:

The average temperature in December here in SE Alabama is 48.7 degrees. The average for December, 2015 through 12/30 is 62.7. That's a 14 degree anomaly, and we're generally not thought of as being in a continental climate. Even all this rain hasn't changed that much, with a high of 72 yesterday and 61 this morning. I don't even think that kind of anomaly is possible here in summer. We'd have to average highs of 100 plus every day to hit it. Well, it hasn't been possible in the past. Who knows now.

I didn't realize your average December temperature was quite so cool, but with an average low in the upper 30s and high close to 60F it makes sense.

STILL warm and muggy here in Orlando, though at 79F it is quite a bit cooler than 87F from 24 hours ago. The clouds have cleared out so I think we will see mid-80s today. Orlando's lowest temperature in the last 10 days has been 65F. Our average December temperature is around 61-62F (our average low this month is higher than that), while this December's average temperature is 72F, a record. This December's average of 81F/63F is warmer than average for Miami in December. Happy New Year all!
2015 is the record hottest calendar year in South America's 2nd most populous metropolitan area, Buenos Aires, Argentina. 2014 is the record wettest calendar year there.

Link
Quoting 230. tampabaymatt:



Not according to the CPC.
Happy New Year Tampabay !!! Thanks for all you've done in making 2015 remarkable!
Quoting 235. HurrMichaelOrl:


I didn't realize your average December temperature was quite so cool, but with an average low in the upper 30s and high close to 60F it makes sense.

STILL warm and muggy here in Orlando, though at 79F it is quite a bit cooler than 87F from 24 hours ago. The clouds have cleared out so I think we will see mid-80s today. Orlando's lowest temperature in the last 10 days has been 65F. Our average December temperature is around 61-62F (our average low this month is higher than that), while this December's average temperature is 72F, a record. This December's average of 81F/63F is warmer than average for Miami in December. Happy New Year all!


Supposed to cool off the first full week of January little bit... HOpe it holds true and we get back to "normal".
hi Dakster, "man with two souls" Happy New Year soon.

And to everyone else, too.

No more Hydra posts! Climate will now be "old woman swinging iron skillet".
Quoting 230. tampabaymatt:



Not according to the CPC.
No, this El Nino is not turning out as forecast so far. The forecast for Florida in December was slightly cooler and slightly wetter than average, a miss on both counts. The forecast for South Alabama was also cooler and wetter. The cooler never showed up, and no forecast anticipated how wet it has actually gotten. The occurrence of tornadoes in Texas and the southern Plains was supposed to be far less than normal, a prediction that worked until Christmas week. There was no prediction that the entire eastern half of the country would experience temperatures not only far above normal, but record monthly temperatures in many places. I'm not convinced that climatology is giving us a very good window into predicting the weather from the current extremely strong El Nino. No El Nino this strong has occured in the modern (post 1950) era, probably none nearly as strong since about 1880, when weather records in many areas are pretty sparse. This situation, combined with whatever effects AGW is adding, will just have to be played by a five day ear.
Quoting 239. aquak9:

hi Dakster, "man with two souls" Happy New Year soon.

And to everyone else, too.

No more Hydra posts! Climate will now be "old woman swinging iron skillet".


Thanks Water Puppy. How are things on your side of Florida?
2015 is reportedly the record wettest calendar year in Texas, with a preliminary statewide average rainfall estimate of 41.39" / 105.1 cm for the year, beating the previous record of 40.22" / 102.2 cm in 1941.

Link
Quoting 235. HurrMichaelOrl:


I didn't realize your average December temperature was quite so cool, but with an average low in the upper 30s and high close to 60F it makes sense.

STILL warm and muggy here in Orlando, though at 79F it is quite a bit cooler than 87F from 24 hours ago. The clouds have cleared out so I think we will see mid-80s today. Orlando's lowest temperature in the last 10 days has been 65F. Our average December temperature is around 61-62F (our average low this month is higher than that), while this December's average temperature is 72F, a record. This December's average of 81F/63F is warmer than average for Miami in December. Happy New Year all!
Happy New Year as well. It usually turns nippy here about mid December, when we see our last high of 60 or above. It's not nippy compared to a place like Cleveland, but a lot nipper than most snowbirds expect. I'm usually in jeans and a jacket by now instead of shorts and a t-shirt. It hasn't been as absolutely warm here as what you've had, but it's been a lot more like central Florida than south Alabama. That should be coming to an end by Saturday, when temperatures will be a few degrees below the normal high of 56. Now I just have to find out where I put my jacket. :-)
Quoting 232. Dakster:



Makes you want to be in a bullet proof vault for a few minutes before and after NYE.


We were out there in kevlar helmets and full kevlar vests, and we needed them at times. Two of our units ended up with dents from spent rounds. One landed on the pavement about 10 feet from me. I still have that one somewhere as a souvenir. It was really warm that night, and wearing all that junk saved a couple of suspects from being apprehended when we ran out of steam during a foot pursuit.
Dakster- we are hot, humid, and muggy. My winter garden has been a fail. Last year? broccoli the size of basketballs.

This year? less than a fifth of the broccoli even formed heads, and none were bigger than a grapefruit. Of course, weather played a part. Like, the ENTIRE part!

Kinda hard to plant a spring garden, when I never had a winter garden.
Quoting 231. Climate175:
Google's New Year's Eve Doodle looks neat!


I agree.

Meanwhile, in Carbodale, IL, the sky is cloudy.
Quoting 245. aquak9:

Dakster- we are hot, humid, and muggy. My winter garden has been a fail. Last year? broccoli the size of basketballs.

This year? less than a fifth of the broccoli even formed heads, and none were bigger than a grapefruit. Of course, weather played a part. Like, the ENTIRE part!

Kinda hard to plant a spring garden, when I never had a winter garden.



Might just need to do a summer garden all year around...
Quoting 247. Dakster:


Might just need to do a summer garden all year around...
That would be a great idea- except that the plants KNOW how much sun there is, and how long the days are. The plants KNOW it's winter.

Like tomatoes- I just don't have enough sunlight ( length of daytime sun-shining ) for them to bear. So even though it's plenty warm, it's not sunny enough for a long-enough period of time.

Grumble.
Quoting 244. sar2401:

We were out there in kevlar helmets and full kevlar vests, and we needed them at times. Two of our units ended up with dents from spent rounds. One landed on the pavement about 10 feet from me. I still have that one somewhere as a souvenir. It was really warm that night, and wearing all that junk saved a couple of suspects from being apprehended when we ran out of steam during a foot pursuit.


When I've worked at about 5 'till we get the seek shelter order... Go under overpasses or in a covered garage. Some squads transfer at midnight and for safety they are held over on OT. Some areas celebrate by shooting out all the street lights with AK 47's.... Know numerous people that end up with bullets through the roofs of their cars.

Sometimes I wonder what country I am in.

Last year I was in Alaska, a "polar" opposite experience.
Quoting 248. aquak9:

That would be a great idea- except that the plants KNOW how much sun there is, and how long the days are. The plants KNOW it's winter.

Like tomatoes- I just don't have enough sunlight ( length of daytime sun-shining ) for them to bear. So even though it's plenty warm, it's not sunny enough for a long-enough period of time.

Grumble.


Hmmm... UV lights in the Garden then?
Quoting 246. 62901IL:



I agree.

Meanwhile, in Carbodale, IL, the sky is cloudy.


cloudy and 29 degrees over 10,000 still with out power from the ice storm .. numerous roads closed due to river and stream flooding ..

people reporting 2-3 feet of water in basements with no power sump pumps quit ..


Clear and 58F/14.44C here just before Noon PST(11:16)
Quoting 212. sar2401:

There's always a Bad Moon about to rise over Houston... :-)


Well, I understand, the Moon rises over a bad Houston several times a year. It is like clock work almost. :)
In other news, a 63-floor hotel/residence building in Dubai is ablaze (The Address), *possibly* caused by--or at least connected to--a nearby New Years Eve fireworks display, which is set to begin in under 40 minutes.



No word yet on casualties.

Google Street View:
Quoting 229. sar2401:

It didn't "go" anywhere. The storm named Frank in Europe drew warm air up from the Atlantic and warmed the air near the North Pole. As shown on this graphic, it wasn't some kind of widespread heat wave, and the temperature above freezing at the Pole on Wednesday was estimated from satellites, since there are no weather stations at the North Pole. As Frank has moved further east, the flow of relatively warmer air has ceased at the Pole. It's currently -4F at Barrow, and the temperature at the Pole should be at least ten degrees colder.



Not exactly. The frigid air was transported in part into the back side of "Frank", and was modified (warmed and moistened) by the ocean and turbulent mixing with the warmer air layers. Same thing has been happening in an even bigger way out over the North Pacific. Since the seas are warmer than normal, both because of El Nino and global warming, it's likely that more frigid air has been modified this year than usual, leaving less overall on balance, roughly speaking..
Quoting 254. Neapolitan:

In other news, a 63-floor hotel/residence building in Dubai is ablaze (The Address), *possibly* caused by--or at least connected to--a nearby New Years Eve fireworks display, which is set to begin in under 40 minutes.



No word yet on casualties.


not true .. started around 9:30 long before any fireworks ..

edit .. restaurants all use LP Gas and they believe it started in one of the numerous restaurant's in the building ..
Quoting 256. whitewabit:



not true .. started around 9:30 long before any fireworks ..
What's "not true"? That the building is on fire? That it's in Dubai? That it's a hotel/residence? Specifics, please. Thanks.

FWIW, the comment about the fireworks was from CNN; a call-in person noted that pyrotechnic charges had been planted on the sides of the building to celebrate the new year, so it remains a possibility...
254. Neapolitan
7:20 PM GMT on December 31, 2015


That looks really bad.
they are saying in 31 minutes the fireworks display will start .. not canceling them .

they must be careful the building doesn't collapse .. its fully engulfed now .. 63 stories ..
260. bwi
Very small but worrisome TC Ula, first vis this morning
261. bwi
Not the first big skyscaper fire in Dubai -- here's another link from last winter
http://gulfnews.com/news/uae/emergencies/massive- fire-erupts-at-torch-tower-in-dubai-marina-1.14601 07
So what does a fire in a building in Dubai have anything to do with the blog or blog topic?
Man, a full involved 63 story building... yikes...

Early start to the 2016 hurricane season on the 12z ECMWF. As depicted, that is definitely tropical. Obviously unlikely, but it's showing a pretty legit setup, big high to the north with energy coming out of the Caribbean. SSTs there are right around 26C.

Quoting 255. BayFog:


Not exactly. The frigid air was transported in part into the back side of "Frank", and was modified (warmed and moistened) by the ocean and turbulent mixing with the warmer air layers. Same thing has been happening in an even bigger way out over the North Pacific. Since the seas are warmer than normal, both because of El Nino and global warming, it's likely that more frigid air has been modified this year than usual, leaving less overall on balance, roughly speaking..
That's a better explanation, but the air air mass as it transited north modified the cold air as it went. The cold air from the Pole didn't just stay cold and end up somewhere else.
Quoting 251. whitewabit:


cloudy and 29 degrees over 10,000 still with out power from the ice storm .. numerous roads closed due to river and stream flooding ..

people reporting 2-3 feet of water in basements with no power sump pumps quit ..



Has any of the ICE melted yet?
Quoting 254. Neapolitan:
In other news, a 63-floor hotel/residence building in Dubai is ablaze (The Address), *possibly* caused by--or at least connected to--a nearby New Years Eve fireworks display, which is set to begin in under 40 minutes.



No word yet on casualties.

Google Street View:


Whoa...
Now at 16.05" and it hasn't stopped raining yet! In rooting around trying to find the highest rainfall total in any month in Alabama, not just December, it looks like 15.98" fell in Mobile in September, 1877. The newspaper archive tells of a big hurricane hitting that month, and I assume that's what caused the very heavy rain. Mobile and Montgomery were the only official stations in more or less south Alabama at the time, and the monthly rain at Montgomery was only 5.24", so it must have been mostly a coastal event. I can't find a higher total in any of the weather records for any official station in Alabama. Of course my total is far from official, but it gives you an idea what an extraordinary precipitation month this has been.

EDIT: In digging around some more, it looks like March 1929 produced the highest rainfall totals ever recorded in Alabama at Elba. The supposed amounts were 20 inches in one day and 29.6 inches in 72 hours. This was not at an official station, and there are some doubts about the accuracy of that gauge. I would have thought those totals were impossible before 10 days ago, but, while the totals may not be entirely accurate, I have no doubt that 20 to 25 inches from one non-hurricane related storm is very possible.
Quoting 262. luvtogolf:

So what does a fire in a building in Dubai have anything to do with the blog or blog topic?
We were discussing various aspects of NYE fireworks earlier. The building in Dubai, which headlines might lead one to believe is the tallest in the world or that fireworks somehow started a fire, neither of which is true, torched up on NYE. Therefore, by the rules of topic morphing long observed here, it was fair game. :-)
Quoting 268. sar2401:

Now at 16.05" and it hasn't stopped raining yet! In rooting around trying to find the highest rainfall total in any month in Alabama, not just December, it looks like 15.98" fell in Mobile in September, 1877. The newspaper archive tells of a big hurricane hitting that month, and I assume that's what caused the very heavy rain. Mobile and Montgomery were the only official stations in more or less south Alabama at the time, and the monthly rain at Montgomery was only 5.24", so it must have been mostly a coastal event. I can't find a higher total in any of the weather records for any official station in Alabama. Of course my total is far from official, but it gives you an idea what an extraordinary precipitation month this has been.


Impressive totals and if my lurking observations are correct nearly all has been in the past week. You're over 400% of what I've recorded the past 3 months which is 3.9". 1.55" in Oct, 1.32" in Nov, and 1.03" this month. Barring a random shower the next 8 hours, 35 minutes, that'll be where I end December.


Storm season never ends, I guess.
/shrug
Quoting 271. TimSoCal:


�\_(%u30C4)_/�


Impressive. a storm near the bahamas.

Bet it'll be gone by the next run.
Quoting 272. 62901IL:



Impressive. a storm near the bahamas.

Bet it'll be gone by the next run.


Not to mention right outside Camerooski's front door ;/
Hey Sar, you forgot to add it is so tall it is super heating the upper atmosphere and causing a shift in the jet stream.
I would expect a blog discussing the record number of cities that set their all time warmest December on record.
It will be amazing to see how many cities had their warmest December.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
218 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE TODAY...BUT THE RIGHT STUFF
HAS COME TOGETHER OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CLOUD
DECK STEP BY STEP. LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NOTORIOUS
FOR HELPING LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION...AND GFS APPEARS
TO BE TOO FAST IN SHOVING THE CLOUDS OUT OF HERE SO HAVE KEPT
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z
NAM...BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING. THUS MINS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE 10
DEGREES OR LESS FROM CURRENT READINGS...BUT ONCE CLOUDS ARE OUT
OF THE PICTURE TOMORROW ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY NEAR AND
EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NO MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER AND NO PRECIPITATION ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE TYPICAL EL NINO TYPE
SETUP...WITH POLAR JET SHOVED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND
THE NORTHEAST USA...AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
AFTER A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND BEGINS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING JET MAX WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL CAUSE RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...EITHER BY NEXT THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF OR NEXT
FRIDAY PER THE GFS. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WITH ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&
Quoting 266. 62901IL:



Has any of the ICE melted yet?


all the ice melted as the temp rose to 34 degrees and the sleet turned back to rain .. ice fell from the lines and trees other wise the damage would have been more sever then it was ..

then we got 2-4 inches of snow the next day ..
Quoting 273. KuCommando:


Not to mention right outside Camerooski's front door ;/


*bursts out laughing*
Photos of New Year Celebrations in Japan, Australia, and India.
Wow, that building's pretty much a goner. Gonna be an ugly skeleton....
Quoting 280. aquak9:
Wow, that building's pretty much a goner. Gonna be an ugly skeleton....


I am afraid to even think that you may be right.

Quoting 280. aquak9:

Wow, that building's pretty much a goner. Gonna be an ugly skeleton....


I wonder who insured that building...
Quoting 280. aquak9:

Wow, that building's pretty much a goner. Gonna be an ugly skeleton....
most of the damage appears to be the outside façade likely from use of non fire retarded materials extensive water damage will likely be the biggest issue

its happen before in a building in china as well small fire engulf entire one side in the matter of minutes
Still, even after the fire is out ( that is, IF the building is still standing ) it will be a tall ugly
site against the sky.

Will it have to be demolished? I would guess so.
Quoting 268. sar2401:

Now at 16.05" and it hasn't stopped raining yet! In rooting around trying to find the highest rainfall total in any month in Alabama, not just December, it looks like 15.98" fell in Mobile in September, 1877. The newspaper archive tells of a big hurricane hitting that month, and I assume that's what caused the very heavy rain. Mobile and Montgomery were the only official stations in more or less south Alabama at the time, and the monthly rain at Montgomery was only 5.24", so it must have been mostly a coastal event. I can't find a higher total in any of the weather records for any official station in Alabama. Of course my total is far from official, but it gives you an idea what an extraordinary precipitation month this has been.

Somebody must have turned off the Magic 8 Ball force field. I've noticed some of their vans poking around California the past few days. Time to batten down I think.
Quoting 271. TimSoCal:



Storm season never ends, I guess.
/shrug


That actually wouldn't be too surprising to see considering how obnoxiously summer like it's been the past month.

Quoting 288. CybrTeddy:



That actually wouldn't be too surprising to see considering how obnoxiously summer like it's been the past month.


Strange weather is coming to the U.S....Plenty other countries are getting now.
low pressure near the bahamas in january??? always thinking about the upcoming yr. let the dreams roll. my fears are the same as last yr. slow moving cat 3-4 land fallers s florida twins! after this upcoming year everyone will forget about 2004. wish everyone a nice yr
Quoting 289. hydrus:

Strange weather is coming to the U.S....Plenty other countries are getting now.
just how strange we get to see soon
Quoting 291. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just how strange we get to see soon
I am watching things closely...It could get cold and storm for many folks. Especially where your at Keep, but it will rough here too...If my forecast pans out
Quoting 270. StAugustineFL:



Impressive totals and if my lurking observations are correct nearly all has been in the past week. You're over 400% of what I've recorded the past 3 months which is 3.9". 1.55" in Oct, 1.32" in Nov, and 1.03" this month. Barring a random shower the next 8 hours, 35 minutes, that'll be where I end December.
It all started with a measly 0.08" on December 21, so in 10 days, I've gotten almost exactly 15 of the 16 (now 16.20", but who's counting) inches. We average about 50 inches of rain a year. Using my notoriously bad math skills, that means I've gotten 32% of normal annual rainfall in one month...and December at that. The average in December is 4.39", so I'm now at nearly four times average. I've seen a lot of weather in my time on earth, but the last 10 days have been truly astounding. Most of the rain does look like it's shifting south, but I've thought that all day, and keeps redeveloping. It's still 59, and until there's a considerable temperature drop, I doubt it's going to stop raining.
Quoting 286. BayFog:


Somebody must have turned off the Magic 8 Ball force field. I've noticed some of their vans poking around California the past few days. Time to batten down I think.
That would explain all the black helicopters I've seen flying around.
Quoting 293. hydrus:

I am watching things closely...It could get cold and storm for many folks. Especially where your at Keep, but it will rough here too...If my forecast pans out
ya I know mom nature tries to kill me every winter at least once sometimes twice maybe this year she will try three times
Quoting 296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya I know mom nature tries to kill me every winter at least once sometimes twice maybe this year she will try three times
CFS looks very cold weather for your region, subtropic jet will add plenty of moisture to any developments...We have a break now, changes are coming.
Considering that winter hasn't arrived yet here in the mid-atlantic and Florida is experiencing summer I'm not surprised a T.C is being seen.Would be interesting to track a T.C in January.lol
Quoting 298. washingtonian115:

Considering that winter hasn't arrived yet here in the mid-atlantic and Florida is experiencing summer I'm not surprised a T.C is being seen.Would be interesting to track a T.C in January.lol
It has happened, but rare to say least...I thought it was also unusual that it formed within the Eastern Caribbean....Here is a link...Link
Quoting 296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya I know mom nature tries to kill me every winter at least once sometimes twice maybe this year she will try three times


I hope not... Because the third time is the charm...
Quoting 285. aquak9:

Still, even after the fire is out ( that is, IF the building is still standing ) it will be a tall ugly
site against the sky.

Will it have to be demolished? I would guess so.
By the look of that fire, most of what was burning must be decorative cladding made of foam plastic material. I assume the fire wasn't worse because interior sprinkler systems kept the fire at bay. The taller buildings get, the more of this kind of foam material needs to be used to save weight. There will undoubtedly be a lot of interior water damage, which will be the most expensive part of the repair, but that will be covered by insurance. The damaged exterior sections will just be removed and new panels probably glued on. It doesn't look like there were any sprinklers on those outside terrace structures. If there were, the fire wouldn't have spread so high and so quickly. It's not the kind of place I'd choose to buy a condo however, especially at a couple of a million a pop.
Quoting 297. hydrus:

CFS looks very cold weather for your region, subtropic jet will add plenty of moisture to any developments...We have a break now, changes are coming.

A break from what, the heat?
Quoting 304. ACSeattle:


A break from what, the heat?


I wish it was from annoying political tv ads...

But the heat is what I believe hydrus was referring too.
Quoting 303. sar2401:

By the look of that fire, most of what was burning must be decorative cladding made of foam plastic material. I assume the fire wasn't worse because interior sprinkler systems kept the fire at bay. That taller buildings get, the more of this kind of foam material needs to be used to save weight. There will undoubtedly be a lot of interior water damage, which will be the most expensive part of the repair, but that will be covered by insurance. The damaged exterior sections will just be removed and new panels probably glued on. It doesn't look like there were any sprinklers on those outside terrace structures. If there were, the fire wouldn't have spread so high and so quickly. It's not the kind of place I'd choose to buy a condo however, especially at a couple of a million a pop.


Having dealt with the aftermaths of much smaller highrise fires here in the States, the thing I remember most is the awful smell. It's not a pleasant smell like from a barbeque or a cozy fireplace. It's a foul, acrid, bitter odor that comes from burnt plastic and other manufactured items. Between that and the water damage, all the stuff inside is going to have to be thrown out and the place thoroughly cleaned and refinished. (To say nothing of any environmental concerns. I have no idea how seriously Dubai takes that stuff.) No chance the building will be demolished, but the cleanup will take ages for a big place like that.

PS Happy new year everyone!
Mixed bag from the Miami NWS...

SATURDAY...20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY.
WITH CLOUDS, SOME SHOWERS AND N TO NE WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPS
WILL BE REALIZED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER. NOT QUITE AS
COOL FURTHER SOUTH, BUT UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WILL BE DIFFERENT
FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WEEK.

SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO, SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF, BUT POPS WILL
INCREASE REGIONWIDE. IN ADDITION, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE ECMWF, SO WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR NOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING QUICKLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2", AS WINDS
BACK QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS MOVING FROM SSW TO NNE,
POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED, COULD TRAIN LEADING
TO HVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE URBAN STREET FLOODING. IN ADDITION,
LLVL SHR INCREASES WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES PROGGED NEAR 100
M2/S2. IF ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS THROUGH NUMEROUS CLOUDS,
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT AGAIN, ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT. THE
FRONT IS THEN NUDGED SOUTH AGAIN BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...

NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL. TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO THE LOWER 70S AND MAY NOT MAKE 70F ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION. SHOWER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN TIMING AND STRENGTH,
THE ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS
SOUTH FL FROM SW CUBA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTERACTING, THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY LEAD TO GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW AND A
FEW RAINY DAYS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENTIRE
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE CHANGING TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS MAX
T LARGELY IN THE MID OR UPPER 70S THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

Link

For West Palm Beach...

Quoting 306. MaineGuy:


Having dealt with the aftermaths of much smaller highrise fires here in the States, the thing I remember most is the awful smell. It's not a pleasant smell like from a barbeque or a cozy fireplace. It's a foul, acrid, bitter odor that comes from burnt plastic and other manufactured items. Between that and the water damage, all the stuff inside is going to have to be thrown out and the place thoroughly cleaned and refinished. (To say nothing of any environmental concerns. I have no idea how seriously Dubai takes that stuff.) No chance the building will be demolished, but the cleanup will take ages for a big place like that.

PS Happy new year everyone!


IS IT 2016 YET?? If not, then we don't need to say Happy New Year yet.
Quoting 308. 62901IL:



IS IT 2016 YET?? If not, then we don't need to say Happy New Year yet.

I agree so Happy New Year everyone!
Quoting 308. 62901IL:



IS IT 2016 YET?? If not, then we don't need to say Happy New Year yet.


11:36 GMT, would be 12:30 am tommorow in Paris. So Bonne année.

Your Lows are warmer than my Highs, That is SO Wrong.......
Quoting 305. Dakster:



I wish it was from annoying political tv ads...

But the heat is what I believe hydrus was referring too.
I am trying to say there is a major shift in the pattern, looks stormy..Maybe some ice and snow....Some high amounts are possible...Mid January..



May the weather improve for all those affected by the floods here and around our little planet.

From all of us to all of you, have a safe and healthy New Year. Got to go back and finish cooking. See you all later.
Quoting 310. Qazulight:


11:36 GMT, would be 12:30 am tommorow in Paris. So Bonne année.


Oh.

'Happy new year' all you want then.

Quoting 315. hydrus:


I remember models showing the "cold" coming January 2.....then 7th.....now the 12th.
Quoting 316. washingtonian115:

I remember models showing the "cold" coming January 2.....then 7th.....now the 12th.
ahh wash this new year coming up may give ya the entire winter seasons worth of snow in a two week period or who knows maybe a once in a lifetime mega winter storm for everything all at once
Sunday A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Monday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 56.
Monday Night Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Tuesday Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 56.
Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 43.
Wednesday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Thursday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

El Nino, here we go, starting Sunday here in the SF Bay Area.
Ped - Florida is burning up from the heat... I have to wait until dark in order to do things outside and even then about 2 minutes and I am pouring in sweat. Feels like summer outside. at least there is more darkness so the temps drops a little further.
Quoting 212. sar2401:

There's always a Bad Moon about to rise over Houston... :-)



Because in Houston, when we get a winter storm, power lines (inevitably) ice-up. Often times, thousands of homes are left without power. To say nothing of what happens to our freeways when ice accumulates on those. What that guy on the KHOU.com weather forum doesn't seem to understand is that, after a year of floods and ruinous windstorms, the LAST thing we need is an epic winter storm!
I can handle water and snow... Ice sucks... I wish the best for Houston. They surely do not need or deserve any more weather mayhem.
A very happy, healthy and safe 2016 to my family, friends and furry family members!


Quoting 321. Dakster:

I can handle water and snow... Ice sucks... I wish the best for Houston. They surely do not need or deserve any more weather mayhem.



Well, as near as I can tell, none of the forecast models, GFS in particular, are predicting that. Might have some weather worries on Jan. 10-12, but how can you rely on ANY forecast model when it's not even Jan. 1st yet?!
Quoting 323. pureet1948:




Well, as near as I can tell, none of the forecast models, GFS in particular, are predicting that. Might have some weather worries on Jan. 10-12, but how can you rely on ANY forecast model when it's not even Jan. 1st yet?!


Right... And lately the forecasting has been less accurate than normal.
Quoting 312. hydrus:

I am trying to say there is a major shift in the pattern, looks stormy..Maybe some ice and snow....Some high amounts are possible...Mid January..



In what part of the U.S. Not mine, I hope.
Quoting 320. pureet1948:




Because in Houston, when we get a winter storm, power lines (inevitably) ice-up. Often times, thousands of homes are left without power. To say nothing of what happens to our freeways when ice accumulates on those.

People in Houston haven't a clue how to drive on icy roads. And they're not much better up in Dallas, either.
happy new years to my fellow wunderbloggers
may all your wishes come true!

current temp is at a balmy 77 with an heat index of 79 with humidities at 82 percent.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName= Miami+Lakes&state=FL&site=MFL&textField1=25.9099&t extField2=-80.3145#.VAeeLPnxqcU
Happy New Years to all from a cold snowy Santa Fe, NM. About 4 inches on the ground right now with over 100 inches on the ski mountain already this year.
Quoting 316. washingtonian115:

I remember models showing the "cold" coming January 2.....then 7th.....now the 12th.
remember this as well.but it seems that the models arent handling this super el nino situation well.both the GFS and the euro has been trash long term
Now we're getting somewhere. The temperature is down to 56 and it appears the bulk of the rain really is shifting south. It hasn't rain for an hour, and no official station in the state is reporting rain now. It looks like I will finish out December with 16.29" in the bucket. We should have at least five days of fair weather ahead as the area starts to dry out. I'll kiss December goodbye with no regrets. Happy New Year Everyone.
Quoting 326. lhwhelk:


People in Houston haven't a clue how to drive on icy roads. And they're not much better up in Dallas, either.


Even in Alaska people have a lot of issues. In a city with 300k people in it there are 100's of cars in ditches when the roads get icy. And if school is in session it puts the school buses in the ditches too. Ice is just not easy to drive on - even with studded tires. Being in a warm area that rarely gets snow or ice does compound the problem.

I've hit roads covered in "glare ice" and studded tires, abs, traction control, awd/4wd, advance trac were worthless. Apparently you need at least some traction on at least one tire for them to work... I can tell you the pucker factor was off the chart as I was sliding towards a major roadway unable to stop or steer. I was only going 15 mph and had 200 feet to stop. Just before going into the intersection I hit a patch of traction and was able to steer towards the ditch. Luckily I stopped before going into the ditch or the intersection... That same day when I got back home after I parked and got out of the truck it slowly slid down the driveway on its own - in park and turned off. I had to tie strap it to a tree and fence post...
Quoting 325. pureet1948:




In what part of the U.S. Not mine, I hope.
I dont know where you are. ..It will likely affect the eastern half, with the Great Lakes getting the worst at first, the other parts of the U.S.
Quoting 326. lhwhelk:


People in Houston haven't a clue how to drive on icy roads. And they're not much better up in Dallas, either.
It is deadly here to drive with the ice...Snow seems to be easier to manage..
Happy New Years to all the WU Peeps & Staff.....
As per my tradition on New Year's Eve, I shall release all my ignored members for 2015 from WU prison. Fly free jail birds!
What gorgeous week we have in store here in Sioux Falls! Highs in the 20's lows in the single digits (warming up to the teens by the weekend) low wind, under 10 mph and sunny.

Cold enough to keep things from thawing out and getting messy, warm enough to enjoy. I will probably wander down to Fall Park and try to get some pictures of the frozen falls. Most of the river is frozen over with layer of snow. (There are a few places where the water is moving faster and has some warm water inputs that are not frozen, I wouldn't walk on it yet.)

This is turning out to be a really nice winter. The snow falls have been just big enough to enjoy, not so big as to be dangerous, the wind has come up a few times, but nothing like Fargo where a 20 to 25 mph wind was the norm. And not too cold, like the first year in Fargo where any high above zero was a good day.

I expect we will have some rough weather before it is over, but for now, next week looks glorious.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 325. pureet1948:




In what part of the U.S. Not mine, I hope.
If your in Houston, you will get another storm,Dont know whether its winter storm , or a wind and rain event.
Quoting 335. GeoffreyWPB:

As per my tradition on New Year's Eve, I shall release all my ignored members for 2015 from WU prison. Fly free jail birds!


Lol!!
Quoting 335. GeoffreyWPB:

As per my tradition on New Year's Eve, I shall release all my ignored members for 2015 from WU prison. Fly free jail birds!
I noticed most people on my ignore list no longer post here.
Quoting 247. Dakster:



Might just need to do a summer garden all year around...


Here in DC my winter garden has been extraordinary. Not perfect, high temperatures and dim light damaged the broccoli and the spinach has a drowned and yellowing look I don't like from nearly a week of clouds and rain, much of it warm! But I have enormous amounts of broccoli and the heads are basketball sized with a lot of side shoots also, these grapefruit sized. I picked what had to get picked today.. six or seven big heads but I've got at least three times that volume of sideshoots and if the weather doesn't cool (cooling is predicted) I'll have to cut and freeze it.

I've been busy this season and normally a winter garden doesn't get away from you this far north. But the WEEDS are incredible also this year.. chiefly annual bluegrass, henbit, and chickweed. Never been smothered by weeds before in December though all of these are cool season species.
Quoting 337. hydrus:

If your in Houston, you will get another storm,Dont know whether its winter storm , or a wind and rain event.


Yes, I'm in Houston. Which model says that? What is the dominant precip type?
Quoting 298. washingtonian115:

Considering that winter hasn't arrived yet here in the mid-atlantic and Florida is experiencing summer I'm not surprised a T.C is being seen.Would be interesting to track a T.C in January.lol
I made a mistake . Alice formed in the Atlantic, then moved into the Eastern Caribbean Sea...January Hurricane anyway.
Quoting 333. hydrus:

It is deadly here to drive with the ice...Snow seems to be easier to manage..


That's the truth.

In PA, they're not better from what I've seen. Had snow and ice covered roads back in March, and those who were foolish to drive slid down the roads uncontrollably. At least they went at a slow pace.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 344. hydrus:





What are you trying to tell me?
348. vis0

Quoting 269. sar2401:

We were discussing various aspects of NYE fireworks earlier. The building in Dubai, which headlines might lead one to believe is the tallest in the world or that fireworks somehow started a fire, neither of which is true, torched up on NYE. Therefore, by the rules of topic morphing long observed here, it was fair game. :-)
not to mention adds to pollution wherever the wind is blowing (usually ~east) of Dubai.
All this talk here in Florida about global warming is ridiculous. Sure it has been 80 degrees here all winter, but it was warm in the past and will be warm in the future. Back in 1977 it snowed here which means that colder winters are possible in the future, as it has happened in the past.