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U.S. Reeling From Violent Tornadoes, Epic Flooding, Winter Weather, and Weird Heat

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 10:54 PM GMT on December 28, 2015

Wild weather continued to plaster the nation’s midsection on Monday as a multi-barreled storm system shifted eastward. Thankfully, the severe weather threat has ramped down somewhat, with the highest risks now shifting to river and flash floods--from eastern Oklahoma to the Appalachians--and snow and ice, from Nebraska to New England. More than 40 weather-related deaths have been reported since Wednesday. The storminess is related to a gradual realignment of the large-scale pattern over North America, as described in detail by wunderblogger Steve Gregory in his Monday afternoon post. A stunningly warm, moist air mass across the eastern and southern U.S.--by some measures the most tropical on record for early winter--is in the process of being displaced by a strong upper-level storm moving into the central states, bringing much more seasonable cold.


Figure 1. Damage from the tornado that struck Rowlett, Texas, on Saturday evening, December 26, 2015. The tornado was rated at least EF3. Image credit: AP Photo/David Warren.

North Texas cleans up from Saturday’s deadly tornadoes
Ahead of a strong cold front in west Texas, supercell thunderstorms that ripped across the sprawling eastern part of the Dallas area spawned several tornadoes that killed at least 11 people. One violent tornado that killed eight people in Garland was rated EF4, while “at least EF3” damage was found in Rowlett, just east of Garland, due to the same tornado or one that closely followed. Two people died in Copeland, about 15 miles to the northeast, where EF2 damage was documented. Several other weaker tornadoes struck North Texas. According to the Dallas Morning News, as many as 1000 structures were damaged across north Texas, many of them severely. The storms were fed by a very strong upper-level jet as well as unusually high instability for December (around 3000 joules per kilogram, which would be concerning in springtime, much less wintertime). Temperatures reached 80°F in Dallas just hours before the tornadic supercell arrived, with a summerlike dew point of 67°F.

The widespread persistence of warm, humid conditions over the last few days has led to an unusual U.S. stretch of severe weather for December, including tornadoes from Mississippi to Michigan on Wednesday. The EF1 tornado that touched down in Canton, Michigan on December 23 was Michigan's first December tornado on record. If tornadoes are confirmed on Monday, it will be the sixth calendar day in a row with at least one U.S. tornado reported, tying a monthly record set on December 22-27, 1982, during the “super El Niño” of 1982-83. (The streak would be even longer if we counted early-morning tornadoes on December 23 as part of the December 22 “tornado day”, per NOAA recordkeeping.) Another tragic milestone: 2015 is the first year in records going back to 1875 that has seen more confirmed tornado-related deaths in December than in the rest of the year combined. The only other year with December having more deaths than any other single month was 1931, according to statistics analyzed by Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory).


Figure 2. A 10” snowfall in Clovis, NM, resulted in drifts reaching 9 feet over the weekend, thanks to sustained winds that reached 45 mph with gusts reported to 82 mph at the Clovis airport. Fierce winds and blowing snow continued on Sunday, December 27, 2015. Image credit: wunderphotographer mneff267.

Winter weather shifting from High Plains to Midwest, Northeast
While severe weather rumbled across east Texas on Sunday, the western part of the state was dealing with a crippling blizzard that extended into eastern New Mexico, while freezing rain knocked out power to tens of thousands of western Oklahomans. Exceptionally strong winds--gusting above 70 mph in some areas--have led to near-zero visibilities and drifts of 6 feet or more, paralyzing travel across the region. Roswell, NM, had racked up 12.3” for the day by 8 pm CST Sunday, topping its one-day record of 11.5”; the two-day total of 15.5" was approaching Roswell's two-day record of 16.9”. Lubbock, TX, picked up 2.7” between 6 and 7 pm CST Sunday, pushing its storm total to 9.2”. The city’s heaviest-on-record storm total of 16.9” was picked up on January 20-21 during (you guessed it) the super El Niño of 1982-83.

As the upper-level storm and associated low head northeastward on Monday, more snow and ice is plastering a swath extending from Kansas and Nebraska to Wisconsin and Michigan. A mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain is bedeviling parts of the Great Lakes, including the Chicago and Detroit areas. A band of heavier snow (6” to 12” in spots), coupled with freezing rain in some areas, is expected from northern Wisconsin into much of Maine.

Massive flooding hits Missouri and Illinois, killing 13
The weekend storm brought incredibly heavy rains to eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and Southwest Missouri, with 10.0" falling in a 30-hour period ending Sunday evening on the south side of Springfield, Missouri. The heavy rains drove rivers in Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas above major flood stage, with the Illinois River reaching its highest crest on record at two locations. On Sunday, Governor Jay Nixon declared a state of emergency in Missouri due to heavy flooding all across the state, and urged Missourians in flood-affected areas to not drive into flooded roadways and avoid travel if possible. Eight people died Saturday night in Missouri in floods; six of the deaths occurred in two separate incidents where cars drove into flooded roadways in Pulaski County and were swept away by water. In southern Illinois, three adults and two children drowned Saturday evening when their car was swept away and sank in a rain-swollen creek. Mercifully, the rains have ended in Missouri and dry weather is expected the rest of the week.


Figure 3. Observed precipitation amounts for the 3-day period ending on Monday, December 28, 2015, at 4 pm EST. Rainfall amounts of 6"+ were widespread across eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southwest Missouri and central Illinois, with some areas seeing 10"+. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

A historic flood is building on the Mississippi River
The updated flood forecasts for the Mississippi River issued Monday afternoon by NWS River Forecast Center are about two feet higher than the forecasts issued on Sunday. Nearly all of the Lower Mississippi is expected to enter major flood stage over the next few weeks, as are the lower portions of two main tributaries, the Ohio and Arkansas Rivers. The Mississippi River near St. Louis was already near flood stage late last week due to excessive rains of 2 - 4" (400 - 600% of average) that fell during the past two weeks farther upstream in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. A massive pulse of flood waters from the epic December 26 - 28 rains will pile into the Mississippi River over the next few days, bringing the river to flood levels that will be the highest on record outside of the usual spring to early summer flood season. The Mississippi River at St. Louis was at moderate flood stage on Monday afternoon, and is forecast to crest on Wednesday at the second highest level ever observed, just five feet below the all-time record set during the disastrous flood of 1993. Flood records at this location extend back to 1785. Downstream from St. Louis, the Mississippi River is forecast to crest late this week in Chester, Cape Girardeau, and Thebes at the highest levels ever recorded. NOAA warns that at the flood levels expected, the Degognia, Fountain Bluff, Stringtown, and Prairie DuRocher levees will be overtopped near Chester. NOAA projects that the massive flood crest will propagate downstream to the Gulf of Mexico during the first three weeks of January, bringing flood heights that are expected to be between the 2nd highest and 4th highest on record all the way to Louisiana.


Figure 4. The Mississippi River just downstream of St. Louis at Chester was at moderate flood stage on Monday afternoon, and is forecast to crest on Thursday at the highest level ever observed--exceeding the disastrous flood of 1993. Flood records at this location extend back to 1844. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

On January 20, the flood crest is expected to arrive in New Orleans, bringing the Mississippi River to its 17-foot flood stage in the city, just 3 feet below the tops of the levees. In past years, though, when the river has been forecast to rise to 17 feet in the city, the Army Corps of Engineers has opened up the Bonnet Carre Spillway in St. Charles Parish, which diverts water into Lake Pontchartrain and keeps the river from reaching flood stage in New Orleans. The Corps may also be forced to open the Morganza Floodway in Pointe Coupee Parish, which would divert water down the Atchafalaya River. Opening this spillway has a considerably higher cost than opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway, due to the large amount of agricultural lands that would be flooded below the Morganza Floodway. The Corps also has the option of increasing the flow of Mississippi River water into the Atchafalaya at the Old River Control Structure in Concordia Parish. Operating the Old River Control Structure in this way always makes me nervous, as I explained in my 2011 blog post, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure. The Monday afternoon forecast from the NWS River Forecast Center predicted that the Mississippi River would crest at Red River Landing, where the Old River Control Structure is located, on January 19. The predicted crest of 62.5' is just 0.9' below the all-time record crest of 63.39' set on May 18, 2011. A water level this high has a good chance of forcing the Army Corps to open the Morganza Floodway in order to relieve pressure on the Old River Control Structure. Both the Bonnet Carre Spillway and Morganza Floodway were opened in May 2011, when the highest flood crests ever observed on the Lower Mississippi arrived. This flood cost over $2 billion; I expect the damage from the December 2015 - January 2016 Mississippi River flood will run into the hundreds of millions.


Figure 5. Existing flood stage on December 28, 2015 (inner colored square) and predicted maximum flood stage (outer colored square region around the inner colored square) for the Lower Mississippi River and two tributaries (the Arkansas and Ohio Rivers) near where they join the Mississippi. I've added a numerical ranking on the right side of the squares to indicate where a top-ten flood crest in recorded history is expected. Two gauges are expecting their highest floods on record (Cape Girardeau and Thebes), and most of the Lower Mississippi is expecting a top-five highest flood crest on record. Where the Ohio River joins the Mississippi at Cairo, Illinois, the Ohio River is forecast to crest on January 5 at the third highest level on record; downstream from Little Rock, Arkansas, the Arkansas River is predicted to crest on Friday at the third highest level on record near its confluence with the Mississippi. Image credit: NWS River Forecast Center.

Recapping the Big Christmas Warm
Hundreds of records were buried by sunshine, warmth, and humidity instead of white-Christmas snowfall all across the eastern U.S. during the holidays, especially on Thursday and Friday. Christmas Day was the apex for the north-south breadth of warmth, with record highs set from Florida (82°F in Jacksonville) to Maine (62°F in Portland). Many records on Thursday and Friday were smashed by margins of 10°F or more. The Christmas Eve readings of 72°F at Albany, NY, and 68°F at Burlington, VT, both set all-time records for December. As noted by WU weather historian Chris Burt, these are truly impressive records given the late date in a month that gets progressively colder, not to mention the long periods of record at both sites (since 1883 in Burlington and 1874 in Albany). Chris adds that Philadelphia has seen eight days this month through Sunday with record daily highs: “Not since records began in Philadelphia back in 1874 has any other month of any single year experienced as many daily record highs as this December!” The capital of Christmas commerce, New York City, basked in record warmth of 72°F on Thursday and 66°F on Friday. As of Sunday, Central Park had yet to get below 32°F this fall or winter; its monthly average (12/1 – 12/26) of 52.0°F was running at an astonishing 13.8°F above normal and 7.9°F above the previous December record, going back to 1871. A cooldown this week will reduce that value, but a warmest-on-record December is all but certain for much of the eastern U.S. It’s no wonder that flowers and shrubs are blossoming from Washington to New York.

For the period 12/1/ through 12/26, NOAA’s U.S. Records site shows a phenomenal 3879 daily record highs and 5301 record warm lows, compared to 166 record cold highs and 159 record lows. Despite the intense cold in the eastern U.S. early in 2015, this year will end up with more than two and a half times as many U.S. daily record highs as lows, just one more statistic for a year that is wrapping up in remarkable fashion.


Figure 6. Rescue teams wade through flood waters that have inundated homes in the Huntington Road area of York after the River Foss burst its banks, on Monday, December 28, 2015 in York, United Kingdom. Severe flooding has affected large parts of northern England, with homes and businesses in Yorkshire and Lancashire evacuated as rivers burst their banks. More heavy rain is forecast as dozens of severe flood warnings remain in place. Image credit: Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images.

Floods, holiday warmth extend to Britain and beyond
Northern England continues to deal with relentless bursts of rain and resulting floods. The accounting firm KPMG estimates the cost of the disruption to Britain’s economy at up to 5.8 billion pounds (roughly $8.6 billion US). More heavy rain is expected on Wednesday. The venerable Central England Temperature index--the world’s oldest continuous instrumented record of temperature--remains on track to set its warmest December reading in more than 350 years. The estimated average from 12/1 to 12/27 is at 9.8°C (49.6°F), which is 5.0°C (9.0°C) above the norm. Other European nations are also likely to set records for December warmth, including the Netherlands.

Bob Henson (tornadoes, blizzard, record warmth) and Jeff Masters (flooding)

Flood Tornado Winter Weather Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nasty weather. Especially travel weather.
Excellent updates guys!
The whacky weather train continues!

I wonder when we will have our first official snow threat.GFS seems to like multiple storms coming up the coast starting later next week.

Quoting 210. Drakoen:



With the subtropical jet undercutting the positive PNA ridge you will still potentially receive rainfall.


I hate the words could, may, possibly, POTENTIALLY in any type message from the local NWS folks. It means they are hemming and hawwing around and cannot figure it out.......and we usually end up being disappointed with the rainfall result. Seen it too many times over the years.
Thanks guys...Interesting weather ahead...
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson! What crazy weather to round up the year.
Thanks for the update, gents.

How serious are the chances for snow / ice storms across the eastern CONUS before Jan 10th? I am noting the pattern shift that you referenced ....
Yikes, thanks for the updates...
Flights into and out of Chicago have been cancelled. High winds, sleet, freezing rain, ice. 20 foot waves headed into the city lakeshore. Nasty compared to what it was when we were visiting a couple of weeks ago.
Ped are you getting any rain lately?
I can't plus anyone! the buttons aren't working!
(from previous thread)

Quoting 183. HurricaneHunterJoe:

None in California.........Say Whaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttttttttttttttt! But you can get organic pesto for your organic sprouts here in Cali! LOL

I enjoy the seasonal fresh squeezed blood orange juice from our produce palace every other day. Reasonable price too since its local and they use the "too ugly to sell" oranges in their machine. Nothing like sweet red OJ in the AM.

Waffles are okay once in a long while. Homemade, so I know what I put in the mix. Maple syrup or strawberries and whipped cream, sometimes Pacific blueberries from our backyard.
Quoting 3. washingtonian115:

The whacky weather train continues!

I wonder when we will have our first official snow threat.GFS seems to like multiple storms coming up the coast starting later next week.


They will come thru here first.......IF forecast verifies. We have a little drippy storm scheduled for this afternoon/evening and then alledgedly start undercutting the ridge and the first stom comes Jan 4-5th and 6-7th and then.....................too far out to trust. Let's see if the first 2 verify first.
"At this point though, looking at the ensembles, standardized anomalies, and atmospheric river tools for early next week nothing is really indicating anything more than an average winter storm at best."( NWS Los Angeles) This is NOT El Niño for SoCal, by that time almost half way through January!
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

I can't plus anyone! the buttons aren't working!


I don't believe you, you know how to push everyone's buttons in this forum. :)


Gordon County Local State Of Emergency
Calhoun and Gordon County have been impacted by a recent weather front
bringing heavy rains and significant flooding all across the county.
There have been 2 deaths which were storm related. This is a very
serious situation in which there are treacherous conditions on water
flooded roadways, as well as the risk of additional flooding in the next
72 hours. An additional 3 inches of rain is forecast for our area. A
local state of emergency for Gordon
County has been declared by the Board of Commissioners. Additional risks
will include more flooded roads, downed trees and power lines, and the
potential for flooding of residential area. A new round of approaching
storms is capable of producing (more) heavy rains and high winds, which
can easily topple trees in the rain saturated ground. The weather
situation is evolving rapidly, and residents should monitor the National
Weather Service (NWS) and local media outlets to keep abreast of the
situation. Calhoun and
Gordon County governments have initiated a Unified Command System for
public safety and other entities in response to this threat. State and
local law enforcement, fire/rescue, emergency medical services, public
works, E911, and emergency management representatives are all in
conference now at the Emergency Operations Center in Calhoun arranging
for the deployment of resources. First Responder agencies have extra
personnel and other resources already on stand-by, and additional
personnel have been deployed to patrol the affected areas. A
temporary shelter for anyone who might become displaced is being
established at theSonoraville Recreation Center at 7494 State Route 53
(Fairmount Highway); any residents who think that their home might be
affected are urged to come to the shelter before becoming trapped by
rising waters. This shelter will be open at 8 p.m. tonight (December 28) Officials EMPHASIZE that persons should NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS OR ENTER FLOODWATERS!
P

Local and state officials are on duty and will continue to monitor the
weather situation, and more updates will be made available to the public
in a timely fashion.
Quoting 13. HurricaneHunterJoe:



They will come thru here first.......IF forecast verifies. We have a little drippy storm scheduled for this afternoon/evening and then alledgedly start undercutting the ridge and the first stom comes Jan 4-5th and 6-7th and then.....................too far out to trust. Let's see if the first 2 verify first.
That Jet is going to be strong for sure.
Quoting 1. Dakster:

Nasty weather. Especially travel weather.
Hey Dak, how is the weather doing up in your area?
Quoting 15. Dakster:



I don't believe you, you know how to push everyone's buttons in this forum. :)


I'm plussing post but nothing is showing.
Quoting 18. Climate175:

Hey Dak, how is the weather doing up in your area?


Where am I now, it is 85F, hot , humid, and rains often.

Up where my family is, it is unseasonably warm (40's - above zero). Snow melted, high winds, slushy, slippery, icy, and treacherous driving. Just like a lot of the lower 48 at the moment.
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:


What, no answer ????
:o)))
Quoting 10. Dakster:

Ped are you getting any rain lately?

Was Just sprinkling.
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

I'm plussing post but nothing is showing.



SOme of your plusses are showing up...
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

I'm plussing post but nothing is showing.

Mine's working okay so far .... hope this is not another blog meltdown.
Climate75 - How about where you are? I forget where you call home.
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

I can't plus anyone! the buttons aren't working!
Are you button pusher?
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

I'm plussing post but nothing is showing.



Take a Deep Breath....

Japanese vapor satellite image of the hemisphere with the axis through the longitude of Tokyo.

The main El Nino region is very active to the right, with a large area of sinking air between it and the westerlies, except at the western edge where a tongue of moisture is headed into them. Strengthening jet coming off of Asia is forecast to cut under this week's ridge along the West Coast. First storm should come into SoCal about a week from now, with subsequent storms coming into Northern and Central California. Assuming the forecast models are correct.
Southeast of Charlotte, NC an hour ago:

There is a typo in the 2nd to last sentence of the blog post: "The estimated average from 12/1 to 12/27 is at 9.8°C (49.6°F), which is 5.0°C (9.0°C) above the norm."

The part that says "which is 5.0°C (9.0°C)" has both readings in Celsius, where one should be in Celsius, the other in Fahrenheit.
Quoting 9. BayFog:

Flights into and out of Chicago have been cancelled. High winds, sleet, freezing rain, ice. 20 foot waves headed into the city lakeshore. Nasty compared to what it was when we were visiting a couple of weeks ago.


In "America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure." you write "I'll say more about the potential costs of such an event in a future post." Did you ever publish that and either way perhaps you could include a link in your next main post please.
Quoting 22. PedleyCA:


Was Just sprinkling.



We in Soo Cal been getting the drip drip drip storms with a few nicer ones thrown in. Mostly cutoff lows or trofs that dig down the west coast into Soo Cal, unfortunately most have had overland trajectory thus limiting moisture........I am biding my time til the Christ Child speaketh or not!
Just like the last 4 years here in SoCal, promises from the long range then reality strikes, .10 inches.
Thanks, gentlemen. Some of these are not just records, but truly amazing records. A crest on the Mississippi just a little below the massive 2011 spring flood crest...in freakin' December? A tornado season when a majority of all deaths occured in one month...freakin' December? I imagine that south Alabama will have its warmest December on record as well. It certainly has to break the record for most anomalous temperatures. If we had these kinds of anomalies in July, the high would have to be something like 120. Nothing happening though, the climate is still pretty normal, except for yesterday...and the day before...and the day before...

Just picked up a quick 0.78" from a cell passing through. Didn't look like much on radar, no lighting at all, and a VIL of just 13. It sure was carrying a lot of water though. The line is starting to tap the Gulf, just like what happened on Christmas Eve. It looks like the line will clear here before it picks up more steam, but I'll bet western Georgia ends up getting a couple of severe storms out of it.
Quoting 35. MtotheJ:

Just like the last 4 years here in SoCal, promises from the long range then reality strikes, .10 inches.
Seriously, January and February are still ahead. Based on past El Ninos, once the tap gets turned it's hard to get it shut off. Things tend to turn on a dime in El Nino years, and I have no reason, at least right now, to think it's going to be different this time. I suspect what will be different is storms that break records that have stood for a long time, just like what we're seeing in the East.
Quoting 29. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Southeast of Charlotte, NC an hour ago:




That has got to be an adrenalin rush
Which way will the wind blow........nothing for sure yet! This is what I mean about could,may,possibly and potentially.....From the NWS San Diego 1:17pm today:

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE DRY NW
FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE WEST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW...AND LOWER
PRESSURE RETROGRADING IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CA. THE
VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THESE TWO FEATURES...BUT REGARDLESS OF HOW IT EVOLVES...THE BLOCK
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR...DRY AND SEASONAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS...WHICH MAY
GETLOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY BELOW THE CANYONS AND PASSES THU/FRI.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE WITH SFC OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...BUT
THE COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE.

ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME ENERGY BREAKING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC UNDER THE BLOCKING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A VOLATILE
TIME FOR MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND SEVEN DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL DOMINATING THE WEST. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO
HANDLE SHORTWAVES DIFFERENTLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. THE
LATEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOME MODERATE PRECIP FOR MON AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. CONFIDENCE BEYOND
NEXT MONDAY SLIPS FURTHER AS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHIFT MORE ENERGY
FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE CMC DIGS MORE ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

So we may know if it is going to rain or not the day before.....lol
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER SET AT JACKSONVILLE...

THE DECEMBER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT JACKSONVILLE TODAY
WITH 85 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 84 WHICH WAS LAST SET
ON DECEMBER 22ND OF 2013.
Quoting 25. Dakster:

Climate75 - How about where you are? I forget where you call home.
I am between Baltimore and DC, and the weather today was cloudy and cooler, but we are we expecting to get rain with that system currently in the Midwest tomorrow.
ESPI after being around 1.30 for weeks now, took a big jump up to 1.72. El Niño isn't done yet. Beware...
Quoting 22. PedleyCA:


Was Just sprinkling.



They MAY be getting some rain in Tijuana,Mexico in a bit.

I took the long way home, about 3 miles. Probably shouldn't have done it. I broke snow of about 6 to 8 inches the whole way. With an air temp of about 15 degrees and a light north wind at my back, before I was half way, the full face hat was off, the glove liners under the mittens were off. By 3/4 of the way, the Hood on the Carhart jacket was back, the jacket was unzipped, and the quilted long sleeve shirt was unbuttoned.

When I turned west from the Big Sioux river and followed Skunk Creek toward the interstate I got a quartering wind sweeping across the golf course to the north. It was a blessing, as it has swept the snow off of the levee and I was only walking in about 2 inches of snow, but it was cold enough to get the hood up and make me break out my fur lined Mad Bomber hat.

By the way, just in case anyone is interested, my base layer today was my artic Caehart base layer and two pairs of Smart Wool socks, The pants were Walmart quilted lined carpenter pants, the shirt was a cotton long sleeve pull over, then a quilted flannel shirt then the Carhart jacket. The gloves were Cat glove liners then Carhart mittens. The head gear started out with a knitted full face hat and the fur lined Mad Bomber hat over it, but that was much to warm, and I think that combination can only be used in the single digits or with a strong wind.
Quoting 44. Skyepony:

ESPI after being around 1.30 for weeks now, took a big jump up to 1.72. El Niño isn't done yet. Beware...



Quoting 46. Qazulight:

I took the long way home, about 3 miles. Probably shouldn't have done it. I broke snow of about 6 to 8 inches the whole way. With an air temp of about 15 degrees and a light north wind at my back, before I was half way, the full face hat was off, the glove liners under the mittens were off. By 3/4 of the way, the Hood on the Carhart jacket was back, the jacket was unzipped, and the quilted long sleeve shirt was unbuttoned.

When I turned west from the Big Sioux river and followed Skunk Creek toward the interstate I got a quartering wind sweeping across the golf course to the north. It was a blessing, as it has swept the snow off of the levee and I was only walking in about 2 inches of snow, but it was cold enough to get the hood up and make me break out my fur lined Mad Bomber hat.

By the way, just in case anyone is interested, my base layer today was my artic Caehart base layer and two pairs of Smart Wool socks, The pants were Walmart quilted lined carpenter pants, the shirt was a cotton long sleeve pull over, then a quilted flannel shirt then the Carhart jacket. The gloves were Cat glove liners then Carhart mittens. The head gear started out with a knitted full face hat and the fur lined Mad Bomber hat over it, but that was much to warm, and I think that combination can only be used in the single digits or with a strong wind.


Carrhart's are the gold standard for keeping warm...
Most of the rain is going to miss me........Looks like Oceanside down to Ensenada Mexico getting the best rains.
NWS radar is showing a tornado warning to the east of Ashevile, NC at the present, moving north:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gsp&p roduct=N0R&loop=yes

There is a confirmed report of another tornado near Monroe, NC about 5:15 PM EST:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/artic le51955080.html#storylink=mainstage
Quoting 49. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Most of the rain is going to miss me........Looks like Oceanside down to Ensenada Mexico getting the best rains.


Indian Hills PWS 1/2 mile North of me is reporting .02
Quoting 34. HurricaneHunterJoe:



We in Soo Cal been getting the drip drip drip storms with a few nicer ones thrown in. Mostly cutoff lows or trofs that dig down the west coast into Soo Cal, unfortunately most have had overland trajectory thus limiting moisture........I am biding my time til the Christ Child speaketh or not!


This member of WE hasn't even been doing that well, the rain either goes north of us, or stays out to sea and comes in over LA. Some speckels showing on radar now, but it's just puffy clouds going by.
Quoting 51. PedleyCA:



Indian Hills PWS 1/2 mile North of me is reporting .02


You better go out and get sandbags. If that keeps up you don't want water getting into your house.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Seriously, January and February are still ahead. Based on past El Ninos, once the tap gets turned it's hard to get it shut off. Things tend to turn on a dime in El Nino years, and I have no reason, at least right now, to think it's going to be different this time. I suspect what will be different is storms that break records that have stood for a long time, just like what we're seeing in the East.

Yup that does seem to align with what many are saying in the twitter-sphere. MJO and El Nino are currently joining forces, instead of canceling each other. see (MJO and ENSO: From Destructive Interference to Double Whammy (December 2015 update)

And then along with that models see a crazy amping of zonal jet acting as firehose pointed at Southwest in week or so.
Quoting 51. PedleyCA:



Indian Hills PWS 1/2 mile North of me is reporting .02


Got a few showers around me....but most/yellow on radar rains going south of me.

Quoting 53. Dakster:



You better go out and get sandbags. If that keeps up you don't want water getting into your house.


Not going to need any today....
Quoting 54. VibrantPlanet:


Yup that does seem to align with what many are saying in the twitter-sphere. MJO and El Nino are currently joining forces, instead of canceling each other. see (MJO and ENSO: From Destructive Interference to Double Whammy (December 2015 update)

And then along with that models see a crazy amping of zonal jet acting as firehose pointed at Southwest in week or so.



Here's hoping!
Quoting 54. VibrantPlanet:


Yup that does seem to align with what many are saying in the twitter-sphere. MJO and El Nino are currently joining forces, instead of canceling each other. see (MJO and ENSO: From Destructive Interference to Double Whammy (December 2015 update)

And then along with that models see a crazy amping of zonal jet acting as firehose pointed at Southwest in week or so.



And where will the storms themselves be in that 500-1000 mile wide swath of jetstream? Top? Bottom? Middle? And then what is that little disconnection just south of Soo Cal of the jetstream?
It's raining!
Sorry, Couldn't resist
Quoting 56. PedleyCA:



Not going to need any today....


When you finally get that large thunderstorm and hard rain, roofers are going to be very busy. Roofs that were not known to leak may start...
Quoting 4. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I hate the words could, may, possibly, POTENTIALLY in any type message from the local NWS folks. It means they are hemming and hawwing around and cannot figure it out.......and we usually end up being disappointed with the rainfall result.
It means they understand the probabilistic nature of weather forecasting and refuse to make absolute statements when they do not have absolute knowledge.

If it bothers you so much, you could wait before you look at any more forecasts until weather science has the computing power at its disposal to predict exactly the behavior of every rain cloud.
Quoting 59. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It's raining!
We had a brief brisk shower here ourselves about 20 minutes ago. Is it contagious???

Not even really showing up on the sat img ....



:o)

Quoting 54. VibrantPlanet:


Yup that does seem to align with what many are saying in the twitter-sphere. MJO and El Nino are currently joining forces, instead of canceling each other. see (MJO and ENSO: From Destructive Interference to Double Whammy (December 2015 update)

And then along with that models see a crazy amping of zonal jet acting as firehose pointed at Southwest in week or so.



Looks like the jet weakens from 150 to like 70 just west of California. Thats not going to help with instability and upslope flow. Call me doubting Thomas until I see the water in my Naitive American Grinding Stone I use for a bird bath....just having bad vibes!
Quoting 50. EricGreen:

NWS radar is showing a tornado warning to the east of Ashevile, NC at the present, moving north:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gsp&a mp;p roduct=N0R&loop=yes

There is a confirmed report of another tornado near Monroe, NC about 5:15 PM EST:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/artic le51955080.html#storylink=mainstage

Used to know some pple in the Monroe area .... that location is way deep into the southern, mostly undeveloped part of the county. Good thing it wasn't further NW.
Here's some video of the winter storm that I shot in Greenville, MI today. Sleet and snow, roads are icy, now it's also quite windy with higher gusts into the mid 30mph range. This is quite a storm system!!!


View on YouTube
Quoting 63. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Sorry, Couldn't resist

Well let's see how/if the pattern persists and shapes up in a few more days. Could get very interesting to say the least. Might become the opposite of wishing for more drips but rather an oh my gosh what just happened. ; )
Quoting 66. BahaHurican:

We had a brief brisk shower here ourselves about 20 minutes ago. Is it contagious???

Not even really showing up on the sat img ....



:o)




kinda like mine but i do have a cloud

Quoting 69. StormyPleasures:

Here's some video of the winter storm that I shot in Greenville, MI today. Sleet and snow, roads are icy, now it's also quite windy with higher gusts into the mid 30mph range. This is quite a storm system!!!

Neat-o .... it looks like a lot more snow is falling because the wind's blowing so hard .... and that guy should have put the kid in the car before the groceries .... lol .... IMO....
Quoting 70. VibrantPlanet:


Well let's see how/if the pattern persists and shapes up in a few more days. Could get very interesting to say the least. Might become the opposite of wishing for more drips but rather an oh my gosh what just happened. ; )


Bring it ON!
Quoting 70. VibrantPlanet:


Well let's see how/if the pattern persists and shapes up in a few more days. Could get very interesting to say the least. Might become the opposite of wishing for more drips but rather an oh my gosh what just happened. ; )


ok don't make me turn it on I am warning ya

Holy cow! Up to 1.61" in the last two hours! These cells are constantly building after the main line of storms has gone through. This is exactly what happened Thursday. The side yard is flooded again, and cars are getting stranded in the water downtown. The temperature is still 70 and, as you might imagine, the dewpoint is also 70. Whatever happened to a front that just moved through and then the rain stopped? That's quite enough of this whole tropical air thing now.
76. bwi
I wonder how common it is in winter for the jet stream to loop back over the north pole!

Not the Gully Washer Faucet treatment.....
Quoting 65. AdamReith:

It means they understand the probabilistic nature of weather forecasting and refuse to make absolute statements when they do not have absolute knowledge.

If it bothers you so much, you could wait before you look at any more forecasts until weather science has the computing power at its disposal to predict exactly the behavior of every rain cloud.


I Should do that .........It would def lower my blood pressure.
Quoting 75. sar2401:

Holy cow! Up to 1.61" in the last two hours! These cells are constantly building after the main line of storms has gone through. This is exactly what happened Thursday. The side yard is flooded again, and cars are getting stranded in the water downtown. The temperature is still 70 and, as you might imagine, the dewpoint is also 70. Whatever happened to a front that just moved through and then the rain stopped? That's quite enough of this whole tropical air thing now.


Get the boat readied! Be safe sar!
Quoting 74. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



ok don't make me turn it on I am warning ya




That's a mighty big spigot you got there Keeper.
A bit of nasty weather in Alaska caused the portage road to the whitter tunnel to close today...

Let's all start praying for the " Miracle March" for rainfall in Soo Cal........hey, it happened before, it can happen again!
Had thunder sleet here in Lock Haven, PA at about 850 pm.
Quoting 83. Dakster:

A bit of nasty weather in Alaska caused the portage road to the whitter tunnel to close today...




Brings back a memory from my childhood......My dad was driving some type of vehicle with campershell thru mountainous Alaska and our vehicle tipped over toward the center divide and not the other way where there was a rather steep dropoff. I was in the campershell and no injuries to anyone.....that pic just jogged my memory......I can't remember too many details as I was like 5-6 years old.
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Looks like a big ridge off the California coast?
Quoting 87. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Looks like a big ridge off the California coast?


It's bringing the 40s to Anchorage...

Glad you were OK. Always scary to get blown over...
Quoting 87. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Looks like a big ridge off the California coast?
gonna be ah block set up a ribbon of clouds se too s cali then north up along the coast
It was mentioned in this blog and the previous blog- the flooding that is expected soon along the Mississippi River.
It worries me a bit, yet I see little mention of it among the comments.

Too soon to fret?

I also see no mention of what additional rain might do to exacerbate the situation.
Is any more rain expected, in the long-range?
Quoting 90. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Is that not like a split flow?
Quoting 91. aquak9:

It was mentioned in this blog and the previous blog- the flooding that is expected soon along the Mississippi River.
It worries me a bit, yet I see little mention of it among the comments.

Too soon to fret?

I also see no mention of what additional rain might do to exacerbate the situation.
Is any more rain expected, in the long-range?
drying period once current system ejects ne ward and up and out
maybe its weather who knows lets hope for a little break at least
drying period once current system ejects ne ward and up and out

ok, but I don't see a lot of mention in the comments section. But thanks for that response. That's actually a little comforting.

We watched some amazing footage when the Bonnet Carre Spillway and Morganza Floodway were opened a few years back. Don't know what it would be like this time.
With a Rex Block, Is there still not a split flow? With either the northern or southern being stronger? Usually the northern is stronger? Does El Nino allow for the Sub Tropical Jet to mix with the southern jet and become dominant? Please just don't tell me it has the potential!......LOL
Quoting 92. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Is that not like a split flow?
yeah if depiction holds we will see January is coming soon
Quoting 91. aquak9:

It was mentioned in this blog and the previous blog- the flooding that is expected soon along the Mississippi River.
It worries me a bit, yet I see little mention of it among the comments.

Too soon to fret?

I also see no mention of what additional rain might do to exacerbate the situation.
Is any more rain expected, in the long-range?


Waiting to see what happens myself and worried as well. Luckily out of the places I stay, along the Mississippi River isn't one of them. But it doesn't mean I don't care about the people that do.
Quoting 93. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

drying period once current system ejects ne ward and up and out


Looks like it is flooding as far south as St Louis and projected to go higher, should arrive in Louisiana in a couple weeks?
Link
From NWS Fort Worth-Dallas

"Here is updated information on the tornado event that occurred on 12/26/2015. There have been 9 confirmed tornadoes thus far. NWS storm surveys are being conducted today with several more surveys possible later this week. Please note that this data is preliminary and subject to change pending further investigation and publication by the NOAA Climatic Data Center."

"Here's a quick graphic on December Tornado events! Note that information from the most recent Tornado event is still preliminary and will be subject to change until official NCDC publication."
Quoting 91. aquak9:

It was mentioned in this blog and the previous blog- the flooding that is expected soon along the Mississippi River.
It worries me a bit, yet I see little mention of it among the comments.

Too soon to fret?

I also see no mention of what additional rain might do to exacerbate the situation.
Is any more rain expected, in the long-range?


Looks like it is flooding as far south as St Louis and projected to go higher, should arrive in Louisiana in a couple weeks?

Link
Quoting 95. aquak9:

drying period once current system ejects ne ward and up and out

ok, but I don't see a lot of mention in the comments section. But thanks for that response. That's actually a little comforting.

We watched some amazing footage when the Bonnet Carre Spillway and Morganza Floodway were opened a few years back. Don't know what it would be like this time.


I read somewhere they are considering opening them again...these are the ones that go into Lake Ponchatrain, or at least one of them does.
From this blog:
On January 20, the flood crest is expected to arrive in New Orleans, bringing the Mississippi River to its 17-foot flood stage in the city, just 3 feet below the tops of the levees.

Oh Hi Barefoot!! You know I have been thinking of you when they start talking Mississippi River flooding and causeways being opened. I remember being really worried about it in 2011.

HurricaneHunterJoe- I think Jan 20th is when it's gonna get ugly in NOLA.
@post 102 - that's a SWEET link, thank you.
107. beell
From the wayback archive:

Corps of Engineers prepares to activate the
Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway Operations Plan

MEMPHIS, Tenn., April 25, 2011-The Memphis District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, began readiness plans to operate the Birds Point-New Madrid (BP-NM) Floodway today (April 25). A decision to exercise the next steps to be prepared to use the BP-NM floodway component of the Mississippi River and Tributaries project will be made at 1 p.m. tomorrow. The Floodway is part of a flood risk management plan for the lower Mississippi River designed to minimize damage to property, structures and to help save lives from historic flood levels-2013 also referred to as the Project Flood-on the lower Mississippi River. The Commander of the Memphis District has the responsibility to plan and operate the BP-NM Floodway upon direction from the Mississippi River Commission (MRC) President. The 1928 Flood Control Act gives the President of the MRC the authority to operate the BP-NM Floodway when the Mississippi River reaches 58 feet on the Cairo, Ill., gage with the prediction to rise to 61 feet and rising. No decision can be made at this time whether or not to artificially open the floodway. However, as set forth in the operation plan, preparation for that event is necessary at this time in order to carry out the activation of the floodway, should flood pressures on the comprehensive system require activation.

Link



Current forecast crest for the Mississippi/Ohio River at Cairo is at 59.0' on January 5th.
Link

Doubt that they will open this floodway again if the crest is quick to fall. Quite a bit of valuable cropland in the floodway and more than a few homes.

In any event, being in between agricultural seasons is a plus.
(grumble grumble, new madrid, cairo, thebes, grumble worry fret)
Monroe, NC is not far over the NC/SC state line, about 55 miles northwest of Florence, SC (as the crow flies). It is about 30 miles southeast of Charlotte. I had a project in Indian Trail a couple of summers ago which is very close to Monroe. Most of my drive was rural farmland until you get to I-74 corridor which is fairly well developed. This looks like it is the more rural area closer to the SC border.

Does not surprise me. The atmosphere was so unstable here in Florence today. When the sun came out, it was just plain hot, humid and uncomfortable. Surprised there were not more severe weather outbreaks today in this neck of the woods.

Quoting 50. EricGreen:

NWS radar is showing a tornado warning to the east of Ashevile, NC at the present, moving north:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gsp&a mp;p roduct=N0R&loop=yes

There is a confirmed report of another tornado near Monroe, NC about 5:15 PM EST:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/artic le51955080.html#storylink=mainstage

Quoting 96. HurricaneHunterJoe:

With a Rex Block, Is there still not a split flow? With either the northern or southern being stronger? Usually the northern is stronger? Does El Nino allow for the Sub Tropical Jet to mix with the southern jet and become dominant? Please just don't tell me it has the potential!......LOL


Okay I won't tell you.. oops let it slip.

Merging of the (weakened) polar front jet and the subtropical jet is a classic El Nino signature. (It does not mean the end of the world either but it does mean a wetter and likely cooler than normal Southern Tier.) A separate jet tends to form far north associated with the arctic front which usually does not have a jet associated with it.
Quoting 110. georgevandenberghe:



Okay I won't tell you.. oops let it slip.

Merging of the (weakened) polar front jet and the subtropical jet is a classic El Nino signature. (It does not mean the end of the world either but it does mean a wetter and likely cooler than normal Southern Tier.) A separate jet tends to form far north associated with the arctic front which usually does not have a jet associated with it.



Thank You!
Quoting 106. aquak9:

@post 102 - that's a SWEET link, thank you.

You are very welcome!
Lots of potential on the GFS 00z for the ECONUS. Thing keep looking better and better. The teleconnections are lining up.
little intense here at the moment

now under freeze rain warning as well




Freezing rain warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Significant freezing rain and strong easterly winds expected.

A intense low pressure system from Texas will arrive over the Great Lakes tonight. A warm front associated with this low is producing a band of freezing rain which has already started in southwestern Ontario and will continue to move northeastwards this evening.

Ice accumulation amounts could range from 5 to 10 mm.

This could well be a significant freezing rain event as strong easterly winds of 40 gusting to 70 km/h will likely result in widespread power outages across many areas beginning this evening.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots will become icy, slippery and hazardous. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Beware of branches or electrical wires that could break under the weight of ice.

Freezing rain warnings are issued when rain falling in sub-zero temperatures creates ice build-up and icy surfaces.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 113. Drakoen:

Lots of potential on the GFS 00z for the ECONUS. Thing keep looking better and better. The teleconnections are lining up.


For normal weather? If there is such a thing any longer!
Wonder how sar is faring.
Quoting 78. PedleyCA:

Not the Gully Washer Faucet treatment.....
A March miracle won't even save us!
For Monday January 4 by GFS......Most of the rain is south of the border. Worth watching anyway and hoping.



And again Jan 6....Most rain south of the border



And then this piece of crap weak thing Jan 13 at the end of the run

Quoting 119. MtotheJ:

A March miracle won't even save us!



We are doing ok thus far this winter especially Northern California. If I am still keeping the faith, anyone can.
00Z GEM 10 Day Rain Totals. Shows most of moisture bypassing Soo Cal and going into Baja. Does show San Diego County South getting some, with even lesser amounts in Riverside,Orange Counties. GulfCoast, SouthEast and Florida look to get decent rains. I'm still keeping the faith.....don't let me down Christ Child.



I am not liking the first part of the supposed "El Nino Effect" time with this forecast jet position. The Northern Jet looks stronger still where it hits the West Coast and the Southern Jet misses the West Coast entirely........hoping it changes for California's benefit.

Coffee time!
Rainfall storm totals for Soo Cal as of 11pm Pacific time
My Location.............. 0.06 in 3 showers
Riverside................... 0.04
Most Rain..................Julian-Small mountain town known for gold mines and apple pie, elevation 4,200 feet....................0.29

The Rest
Link
19 degrees F and what I can only describe as heavy sleet falling here. Very strange... Woke me right up.
Quoting 127. wartsttocs:

19 degrees F and what I can only describe as heavy sleet falling here. Very strange... Woke me right up.


Maybe it all froze.........time to lace up the skates!
Just watching a few episodes of Criminal Minds on my Netflix.....11 seasons and still going strong. I did like Mandy Patinkin the first 2 seasons.
Quoting 129. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Just watching a few episodes of Criminal Minds on my Netflix.....11 seasons and still going strong. I did like Mandy Patinkin the first 2 seasons.
I watched a few episodes of House last night..It was pretty good..i seldom watch tv.
Very detailed and informative blog post Bob and Jeff..
National weather tragedies are not limited by "normal",(whatever that is/)warm standards of the past..
Upsetting the balances of nature has and will provide us worldwide with astounding events..
Add a few landfalling high end hurricane's to the mix..
And it will exceed GNP of this particular country..
We ain't seen nothing yet i'm afraid..
Muggy soupy air still abounds here in my area..
GB to all experiencing this drastic weather and climate change..
Including the poverty stricken elderly and poor..
Not to mention the homeless..
Thank you both for the great blog post..
Good morning over there from mid-southwest Germany in brightest sunshine. Latest model runs don't indicate much of an outbreak of real winter in my part of the country while the northeast is going to feel some more remarkable temps the next days.

And thanks for the new entry, Doc and Bob. A lot of weird weather in the northern hemisphere!

Next big deal is the mentioned storm which is currently bombing out in the North Atlantic and tracking north, passing the British Isles to their west and unleashing more heavy rains and strong winds for the folks over there. Storm is called "Frank" in the UK, and "Eckard" by the Germans. The center of the storm is going to hit Iceland though, with lowest pressure of 92something mb, according to models. Iceland is seeing extremely bad weather this winter!


Current airmasses. Source for updates.


Current surface analysis by UK metoffice.


Analysis for tonight with the "Freak-Frank(en)storm" approaching Iceland.

"Freak" storm to hit Iceland tonight
Iceland Monitor | Tue 29 Dec 2015 | 10.01 GMT
A strong area of low pressure will be approaching Iceland tonight from the south with rapidly growing easterly winds. This will cause a storm with extreme wind speeds in East Iceland tonight.
The Washington Post has called the storm a "freak storm" and that it may push temperatures over 50 degrees above normal at North Pole. ...


Freak storm in North Atlantic to lash UK, may push temperatures over 50 degrees above normal at North Pole
WP, December 28 at 2:33 PM
The vigorous low pressure system that helped spawn devastating tornadoes in the Dallas area on Saturday is forecast to explode into a monstrous storm over Iceland by Wednesday.
Big Icelandic storms are common in winter, but this one may rank among the strongest and will draw northward an incredible surge of warmth pushing temperatures at the North Pole over 50 degrees above normal. This is mind-boggling. ...

More see link above. Really interesting (and frightening)!


Forecast of surface temps (2m) in the northern hemisphere for Dec 30 according to GFS. Notice the entrainment of warm air (green, above freezing) into the heart of the polar region. Source.

Wind map (975hpa) for tonight with the center of windstorm "Frank" on the upper left side off Iceland. Source with more (later on extreme winds off the coast of western Norway).


Map of the jetstream at this time is telling.
Quoting 131. hydrus:

I watched a few episodes of House last night..It was pretty good..i seldom watch tv.


I watch it with my teenage daughter, then have to get up and go away from the TV. Actual police investigation and this show doesn't go together, drives me nuts, but it's good entertainment, and quality time with my kids!
Quoting 122. swflurker:

Karma is a bitch sometimes.
When we were getting major/flooding rain here in west FL earlier this year, he would brush it off saying we should just deal with it. You decided to live there, it's just normal, ect.
I feel for the the people that have had to deal with the severe weather in all area's, especially considering the time frame that it has occurred. Sar's backyard having a puddle is not where my prayers are focused tonight.
The residents who have lost homes and loved ones come to mind first!
JMO


Still seems he's not getting the worst of it.... the flooding he's been talking about has been localized and not particularly threatening in his area so far. I don't think even he has been equating his situation with that of people who have lost homes and loved ones.

It's been a rough time across the central US for a lot of people.
Quoting 138. tampabaymatt:


Looks like N FL, GA, maybe SC should be expecting some wx today.

So far we are having clear skies... hope it lasts.
Quoting 141. BahaHurican:

Still seems he's not getting the worst of it.... the flooding he's been talking about has been localized and not particularly threatening in his area so far. I don't think even he has been equating his situation with that of people who have lost homes and loved ones.

It's been a rough time across the central US for a lot of people.


I was on the blog quite a bit during the W C FL floods over the summer and I never saw sar brushing it off and saying we should just deal with it. I also don’t believe he is equating his situation with those who have incurred property damage. He’s posting his rainfall totals and saying there is flooding occurring in his yard, what’s the big deal? A mod posted in comment #118, so it seems a mod was on the blog around the time #122 was posted. So I’m not sure how post #122 wasn’t removed not only for profanity but it’s blatant attempt to bash another blogger.


Center of windstorm "Frank" is now bombing out off Ireland. Updates here on the website of the Irish Met Service. Edit: Storm is developing two centers. One will head to Iceland, the second to the north of the British Isles, see analysis below:


Click the map to enlarge. Source.
Looks like it is good day to stay indoors in Toronto...

Nice to see you again Barbamz. Looks like your area of the world hasn't been spared wacky weather either.
Quoting 145. Dakster:

Looks like it is good day to stay indoors in Toronto...
Nice to see you again Barbamz. Looks like your area of the world hasn't been spared wacky weather either.

Hey, Dakster, the man with the two souls (one Floridian, the other Alaskan, lol), greetings back to you; always nice to meet you in here!
Yes. two souls... And polar opposite one another.

Hoping that we get a cool down in Miami... Would be nice for it to break into the 60s... even if that is the low at night.
Quoting 147. Dakster:

Yes. two souls... And polar opposite one another.

Hoping that we get a cool down in Miami... Would be nice for it to break into the 60s... even if that is the low at night.


We're sitting at 59 in NW Florida, first time we've seen a low much below 70 in a long time, feels great outside! Colder air coming for New Year's weekend, I can't wait!
Looks like the 4th of January we might get a low in the mid 60s... Almost fall like.

Current IR pic of Europe nicely shows the bisection of our weather: calm high pressure to the right (east) and this stormy curly mess to the left over the Atlantic (west). Source for updates.


Just wow. Surface map for tomorrow (German Eckard = English Frank).

But now I have to go for a while and do something useful ;-)


Already approaching sunset in Chiemsee/Southern Germany. Source.
Longyearbyen/Svalbard +7° C projected on Thursday. 31st. Of: December.
It is half a degree above the climate mean for the hottest day of the year there (around 20th of July).
Quoting 113. Drakoen:

Lots of potential on the GFS 00z for the ECONUS. Thing keep looking better and better. The teleconnections are lining up.
06z also showed some potential, January looking sharp and jamming!
Quoting 151. cRRKampen:

Longyearbyen/Svalbard +7° C projected on Thursday. 31st. Of: December.
It is half a degree above the climate mean for the hottest day of the year there (around 20th of July).


Seems just a bit extreme.
Quoting 132. hydrus:




stop that
Wow, does that say 925?!? Wow, Iceland already belted this winter and may see something of equal or greater magnitude.

What a fetch in the north Atlantic between Iceland and Scandinavia. No wonder so much warm air will invade the north pole. Huge swells will be pounding and breaking up ice as well I'm sure.

Quoting 150. barbamz:


Current IR pic of Europe nicely shows the bisection of our weather: calm high pressure to the right (east) and this stormy curly mess to the left over the Atlantic (west). Source for updates.


Just wow. Surface map for tomorrow (German Eckard = English Frank).

But now I have to go for a while and do something useful ;-)


Already approaching sunset in Chiemsee/Southern Germany. Source.
Quoting 143. tampabaymatt:



I was on the blog quite a bit during the W C FL floods over the summer and I never saw sar brushing it off and saying we should just deal with it. I also don’t believe he is equating his situation with those who have incurred property damage. He’s posting his rainfall totals and saying there is flooding occurring in his yard, what’s the big deal? A mod posted in comment #118, so it seems a mod was on the blog around the time #122 was posted. So I’m not sure how post #122 wasn’t removed not only for profanity but it’s blatant attempt to bash another blogger.
I don't know what was posted unless someone else quotes it. Ignore solves lots of issues. No one who knows me would think I'd ever just brush off people's problems with weather.

At any rate, it did stop raining...for now. I'm up to 13.25" in the last week after picking up another 1.90" last night. The front has now stalled north of you, so you won't get anything from it before it starts to lift back north and I get more rain tonight through Thursday. Figures, since you need the rain and I don't. As long as we can get the rain stretched out over the next few days and not have these torrential downpours like we've had, things should be OK. The people over in Elba and environs are really having big problems with the flooding, including two dead. The last thing they need is more heavy rain. I guess I should have made it clear. Heavy rain here generally means heavy rain in places like Elba too.
I finally got SNOW (which has turned to sleet...freezing rain later...)...
Link


Quoting 156. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wow, does that say 925?!? Wow, Iceland already belted this winter and may see something of equal or greater magnitude.

What a fetch in the north Atlantic between Iceland and Scandinavia. No wonder so much warm air will invade the north pole. Huge swells will be pounding and breaking up ice as well I'm sure.


Quoting 157. sar2401:

I don't know what was posted unless someone else quotes it. Ignore solves lots of issues. No one who knows me would think I'd ever just brush off people's problems with weather.

At any rate, it did stop raining...for now. I'm up to 13.25" in the last week after picking up another 1.90" last night. The front has now stalled north of you, so you won't get anything from it before it starts to lift back north and I get more rain tonight through Thursday. Figures, since you need the rain and I don't. As long as we can get the rain stretched out over the next few days and not have these torrential downpours like we've had, things should be OK. The people over in Elba and environs are really having big problems with the flooding, including two dead. The last thing they need is more heavy rain. I guess I should have made it clear. Heavy rain here generally means heavy rain in places like Elba too.


Well, #122 still remains on the blog. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised; I’ve given up on trying to understand how this blog is moderated.

I enjoy seeing all rainfall totals and reports of local conditions. Keep it coming and I hope you have some dry days ahead. 13.25” is quite a lot for a week, especially when it is coming via torrential downpours.
Quoting 154. TimSoCal:



Seems just a bit extreme.

Probably just too late to save the cacao harvest.
Quoting 162. fmbill:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mlb/pdfs/CentralFl orida_Dry_Season_Forecast.pdf


Still waiting for the above average precip.
Quoting 163. tampabaymatt:



Still waiting for the above average precip.


Me too. I just hate to say it. The next few months may have us wishing for drier days again. LOL!

Oh well...it's a forecast, and you know how that goes. Could be a bust...could be dead-on.
Still waiting for the cold fronts! Is been very dry for the central and west side of the island with the winds from East to west instead of what you normally see from the north.

Quoting 155. Tazmanian:



stop that
Greetings Taz...Wish I could..Cold is coming..California should still get some decent rain, but not the typical Nino to be sure.


I really hope this next cold front that's forecasted to reach Florida actually moves through the state without stalling out and dying this time. GFS is backing off on the anomalies for Jan 5. I just hope we're not stuck for the rest of this winter with grey skies and warm, humid weather.



Source: NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center, 30 Min ago
The 12Z OPC Atlantic surface analysis and 1200 UTC Meteosat-10 visible satellite image indicate a pair of hurricane force low pressure system in the eastern Atlantic. As shown on the analysis, the lead system to the NE is still rapidly intensifying, and it is expected to pass through Iceland as a very powerful low.
As a reminder, a system is classified as "hurricane force" when the winds are greater than or equal to 64 knots ( or, equivalently, 74 miles per hour or 119 kilometers per hour). A system is classified as "rapidly intensifying" when the central pressure of the low center decreases by 24 hectopascals (or millibars) over a consecutive 24 hour period.


Live reporting:
BBC Live: North of England flooding

The Guardian:
Storm Frank: Environment Agency chief returns from Caribbean as storm looms - live coverage




WU wave forecast.
Thank you Bob and Dr Jeff for your continued contributions througout the holidays. With the system moving out, my thoughts are with the many families and individuals affected.

I unfortunately ran across this article today Link, apparently Artificial Intelligence will allay all our foolish concerns about the anthropocene.

The link appears to be a dud, at least for me, here is a small example of the deep derp it contains.

One way to know that the climate change activists are wrong is that these climate change scientists never mention the Singularity or future technology.
The hoax rolls on -

Switzerland has experienced its warmest December since the country began keeping records 150 years ago.
“There’s no doubt about it,” Stephan Bader said. “It’s the warmest December in our recorded measurements dating back to 1864 – clearly. And it’s especially pronounced at higher altitudes.”

Link
Dumped another 1.7" last night, so 3 day total at 9.5" in my part of S C IL. Have around freezing currently, pressure has rose above 30", W - SW winds 5-10 gusting to mid 20s. Forecast now has two days starting the new year w/ lows in teens & w/ highs below freezing. All 10 days have lows below freezing as well, so finally around normal. Maybe it will work S and help ya'll get to normal too:)

Aquadog - I had a few posts yesterday about MS & overall flooding, but let me update w/ latest. MO & MS will be about 5' under '93 flood peaks in StL metro, which for MS will make it # 2 overall, & beat the previous winter flood record from '82 El Nino year by over 6'. Rise was much faster than '93, but hopefully, duration will be much shorter. Flow rate will be just under 900,000 cfs ('93 was over a million). IL river also setting some record levels as well, but MO, while high, won't be in top 10 at St. Charles. Downstream from St. Lou, due to extra water coming in from IL & MO watersheds they will be hitting historic levels. Ste. Genevieve built a flood wall after '93 (when sandbagging saved downtown) to 50', they will be w/in a few inches of topping, and are fortifying it w/ a gravel topping. More on it on stltoday.com if interested.

Doc & Bob - a note on the five from KY who drowned near Patoka. Post-Dispatch says they were a family, parents & three children. Whether the oldest boy was an adult or just a large teenager, I don't know. They didn't give ages. Just wish they'd left I-57 at Salem instead of Farina.
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Well, #122 still remains on the blog. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised; I’ve given up on trying to understand how this blog is moderated.

I enjoy seeing all rainfall totals and reports of local conditions. Keep it coming and I hope you have some dry days ahead. 13.25” is quite a lot for a week, especially when it is coming via torrential downpours.

Oh, well. I learned a long time ago not to get my sense of self worth from what someone posts about me on a blog...unless it was from someone like JustMeHouston, or Water Doggie, or Barb. I'd feel really bad if they thought I was some kind of uncaring jerk... or at least uncaring. :-)

Yeah, over 13 inches of rain is a lot, especially when it has come from four bouts of torrential rain with nothing in between. I wish I could figure out a way to post the monthly chart from my weather station because it really is striking. Nothing, nothing, downpour, nothing, nothing, downpour...the whole month, although the first half of the month I got no rain at all. In light of what's happened in the past week, that has turned out to be a good thing. Alabama rarely gets much media attention when there's so much bad weather elsewhere, but three people have died in flooding since Christmas Eve, and we had at least two confirmed tornadoes. Unusually for us, no one died in the tornadoes.

The main stem rivers are above flood stage, and just below where there starts to be widespread residential and commercial flooding. If we get more torrential rains over the next two days, there could be really serious flooding here, affecting a lot more people than what we've seen so far. The same is true in Mississippi, Georgia, and for the people living along the Mississippi River. We really need drying out bad. Unfortunately, the day 1-3 prediction from the WPC is not looking like any drying is on the way. The WPC has been consistently under predicting the events of the last week. I can only hope they are closer to the mark this time.

How are you holding up SAR? Stay safe...

Quoting 119. MtotheJ:

A March miracle won't even save us!


Unreasonable pessimism. Forecast models still going with the classic El Nino opening in about a week---Pacific jet breaks through under the ridge, the setup for a parade of storms into California. With the block in place to the north, the pattern could easily get stuck in rainy mode, possibly also tapping into pulses of subtropical moisture. We shall see.
Quoting 168. barbamz:



Source: NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center, 30 Min ago
The 12Z OPC Atlantic surface analysis and 1200 UTC Meteosat-10 visible satellite image indicate a pair of hurricane force low pressure system in the eastern Atlantic. As shown on the analysis, the lead system to the NE is still rapidly intensifying, and it is expected to pass through Iceland as a very powerful low.
As a reminder, a system is classified as "hurricane force" when the winds are greater than or equal to 64 knots ( or, equivalently, 74 miles per hour or 119 kilometers per hour). A system is classified as "rapidly intensifying" when the central pressure of the low center decreases by 24 hectopascals (or millibars) over a consecutive 24 hour period.


Live reporting:
BBC Live: North of England flooding

The Guardian:
Storm Frank: Environment Agency chief returns from Caribbean as storm looms - live coverage




WU wave forecast.
Dang! The hits just keep on coming for Iceland and the UK. Maybe when we finally get a decent pattern change here things will calm down some over there. It does look like that tropical connection that has been helping to fuel all these hurricane force storms is starting to break down. This may also mean that Germany will get back to at least normal temperatures, and maybe even some snow. It's a pretty weird weather pattern when we see Reno Nevada with 28 degrees and four inches of snow on the ground while Cleveland sits at 45 and not a speck of snow anywhere.

Switzerland has experienced its warmest December since the country began keeping records 150 years ago.

But the Texas panhandle and Eastern Mexico are locked up in up to 10 foot snow drifts. After weeks of being in the 60's and 70's.

This system is not done -

Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole
Link


Freak storm in North Atlantic to lash UK, may push temperatures over 50 degrees above normal at North Pole


Link

I was watching it last night, it was mostly a rain shield as it crossed the Great Lakes . When it came over me, it came in bands of very intense winds. With grabble . (Round snow).
Grapple is made in very nasty storms, the winds are so violent they roll a snow flake into ball. They hit your windows like hail, but it's pecking sound.

The most amazing blizzard I've ever seen. A real "Hansen Low".
Quoting 173. Dakster:

How are you holding up SAR? Stay safe...


Fine. Nice day actually, with a temperature of 73, which is a lot better than 83. Was sunny, but the clouds are increasing now as that front starts to lift back north. Just as an illustration of how much rain I've had, my trash can is one of those big green ones with wheels and a lid. I don't know how many gallons it holds, but it's a lot. I've asked the garbagemen, both in person and by calling the city, to please close the lid when they get the trash. Too hard. They had left it open before our big rains a couple of days ago, and I just tossed the bags in and hoped for the best. Went out this morning and they had left the lid up before we got the torrential rains yesterday. The can was literally half full of water. I had to deal with it this time or the trash bags would float out the top. I was barely able to get it over and dump the water, which shows what happens when you get old. It was like trying to wrestle a suspect in the back of the unit in the old days. :-)
Quoting 177. RobertWC:

Switzerland has experienced its warmest December since the country began keeping records 150 years ago.

But the Texas panhandle and Eastern Mexico are locked up in up to 10 foot snow drifts. After weeks of being in the 60's and 70's.

This system is not done -

Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 72 Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole
Link


Freak storm in North Atlantic to lash UK, may push temperatures over 50 degrees above normal at North Pole


Link

I was watching it last night, it was mostly a rain shield as it crossed the Great Lakes . When it came over me, it came in bands of very intense winds. With grabble . (Round snow).
Grapple is made in very nasty storms, the winds are so violent they roll a snow flake into ball. They hit your windows like hail, but it's pecking sound.

The most amazing blizzard I've ever seen. A real "Hansen Low".



7 day average temperatures exceeding 36F above the average over such a large region in the arctic. Faster we go ...

clean up complete what a slushy mess

lunch now
And it went on and on, and on. For hours. That's a real climate change foot print. The old storms went on for 2 or 3 hours, the new storms are 2 or 3 days.
This signal isn't even on our radar, but it's showed up. Right on time.

It's a longer period of being in harms way. The storms don't just come and wipe-out your house, it rains on you for days as you sort the rubble.
Naming storms was obviously a great success in the British Isles :-)


Dublin Fire Brigade @DubFireBrigade
If driving, increase your distance, drive slowly through standing water, press brakes to dry afterwards #StormFrank


House of cards.
--------------------------------

Gales up to 115kmh = 72mph in Ireland.

And over 150kmh = 93mph in the Scottish Highlands.

Edit: Winds/gusts still getting stronger:


Source: Current gusts.
Quoting 179. ILwthrfan:



7 day average temperatures exceeding 36F above the average over such a large region in the arctic. Faster we go ...



Does this mean the A/C goes back on if we get an Arctic outbreak?
Quoting 180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

clean up complete what a slushy mess

lunch now


I guess you missed #122 last night?
Quoting 187. tampabaymatt:



I guess you missed #122 last night?
no its indirect cursing not intended to single out any one person not an attack on any one or reference too any individual
This is pretty much a repeat of the 2013/2014 winter storm season in the UK but shifted to the north. Many places breaking their wettest December on record by quite some margin, with some more heavy rain to come in the last few days of December (possibly 4 inches or more in some places overnight tonight and into tomorrow):



Link

Part of the reason the damage is so bad though is due to bad planning and building homes on known flood plains. Hopefully this event will lead to better planning for new homes and better flood defences being put into place.
Quoting 188. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no its indirect cursing not intended to single out any one person not an attack on any one or reference too any individual


So, “indirect” cursing is allowed? I’m not sure I know what that is, but good to know.

Also, you might want to read it again, as it was directed specifically at one person. The whole point of the post was a direct jab at a certain individual. So pretty much everything you wrote is incorrect.
Quoting 167. CybrTeddy:

I really hope this next cold front that's forecasted to reach Florida actually moves through the state without stalling out and dying this time. GFS is backing off on the anomalies for Jan 5. I just hope we're not stuck for the rest of this winter with grey skies and warm, humid weather.




Yeah, I'm looking forward to the cooler weather that is forecast for later this weekend.
But we should finish December with 21 days over 80 degrees (11 of which at or above 85 degrees) here in Fort Myers.
Quoting 189. Envoirment:

This is pretty much a repeat of the 2013/2014 winter storm season in the UK but shifted to the north. ...

Hey, Envoirment! Thanks for the charts. A hard time for you folks, really. How are current conditions at your place?
Quoting 192. barbamz:


Hey, Envoirment! Thanks for the charts. A hard time for you folks, really. How are current conditions at your place?


The southeast has pretty much missed most of heavy rain as the weather fronts have tended to weaken by the time they get here, although it's still been windy. Also been very dull and I'm hoping there'll be a pattern change come mid-late January to give some much needed relief to those in the north and some prolonged periods of winter sunshine!
Quoting 179. ILwthrfan:



7 day average temperatures exceeding 36F above the average over such a large region in the arctic. Faster we go ...




Faster, and faster
. As the Keeper says.

Please all the deniers , step forward and explain why the Arctic at January 1st, will be over 36F above the average . I did this story before with The Greenland Heat Wave.

A really crazy heat wave in Greenland in December.
Quoting 190. tampabaymatt:



So, “indirect” cursing is allowed? I’m not sure I know what that is, but good to know.

Also, you might want to read it again, as it was directed specifically at one person. The whole point of the post was a direct jab at a certain individual. So pretty much everything you wrote is incorrect.

Just let it go, Matt. You'll accomplish nothing except getting banned. Things are just what they are.
Thursday January 14th the meeting in N.Y.C will commence.Now hopefully nature behaves and everything goes according to plan.


“I contacted a team of climate scientists at the University of Washington who maintain a fleet of weather monitoring equipment near the North Pole. James Morison, the principal investigator of the North Pole Environmental Observatory, said he’s “never heard of” temperatures above freezing in the wintertime there. Looking closer at the weather data, it appears this event is in fact unprecedented during the time period from late December through late April”


Link
Quoting 191. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I'm looking forward to the cooler weather that is forecast for later this weekend.
But we should finish December with 21 days over 80 degrees (11 of which at or above 85 degrees) here in Fort Myers.
I'm not convinced we're going to see any influx of cold air over the next 10 days or so. These impulses have been predicted pretty regularly this month, and the actual weather has been much different. The polar jet is still stuck way up north, and the supply of cold air is generally lacking. You may see temperatures near to, but still above normal, by next Tuesday. I should be right at normal, highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. It's going to take a much bigger pattern shift for you to see cool temperatures than what i see on the horizon.
Quoting 190. tampabaymatt:



So, “indirect” cursing is allowed? I’m not sure I know what that is, but good to know.

Also, you might want to read it again, as it was directed specifically at one person. The whole point of the post was a direct jab at a certain individual. So pretty much everything you wrote is incorrect.



no its not
but the writer I think does not mean personal harm and was a indirect non thought out comment as a general word kinda like sayin dam what a tornado that was as a descriptive comment


now lets move along

CWG thinks that the current cold spell coming up will not be long lasting and the snow chances (while there) will be minimal
202. vis0
Many lost their life and and includes::
Singer Craig Strickland missing, friend dead after hunting in storm - CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/29/entertainment/oklah oma-craig-strickland-missing/
Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 9:50 PM WGT / 12-29-2010

50F degrees east wind at 24 mph. This is today's high so far , the temp went up 9F since noon. Max wind today was 54 mph.

This current reading is 22F above average max temp., and sets a new daily record by 6F. Beating 44F set way back in 2002.

The average min temp is 14F, since this reading is at 10 o'clock at night , this measurement is 36F above that average.

Narsarsuaq started this streak on Nov. 19th they set the new daily record of 42F . Then they set new high records for 4 days, peaking with one of 57F.
Add in another 11 new high records since, and this station in Greenland has set 16 new daily high temp. records in 60 days.

A 6 week heat wave in Greenland in the dark, in the darkest portion of winter.

Since I began this post the temperature has gone up another 2F degrees. It's 52F there now.


Link
Quoting 161. cRRKampen:


Probably just too late to save the cacao harvest.


I just had some wild cacao chocolate from Amazonas.. Piaroa's tribal region, and some from the Arauca River Basin along Columbia and Venezuala. Castronova Chocolate, handcrafted bean to bar. https://www.facebook.com/CastronovoChocolate
VLJ Embraer Phenom 100 Landing at Narsarsuaq Airport in Greenland (BGBW)

Link
Nyc has a chance of reaching 32 degrees next week. Above freezing on the north pole. The weather and climate of the last 5 years of this decade will make the weather of the first 5 years of this decade seem as tranquil as it was in the 1970's and 80'S!
The temperature in Longyearbyen on Svalbard is 45F. That's many, many degrees above the normal high for this time of year. Svalbard, it should be noted, lies above 78 N, deep inside the Arctic Circle. That is, it's half as close to the North Pole as Honolulu is to the Equator. And the sun hasn't risen in weeks.

All perfectly normal, no doubt...
Quoting 208. Neapolitan:

The temperature in Longyearbyen on Svalbard is 45F. That's many, many degrees above the normal high for this time of year. Svalbard, it should be noted, lies above 78 N, deep inside the Arctic Circle. That is, it's half as close to the North Pole as Honolulu is to the Equator. And the sun hasn't risen in weeks.

All perfectly normal, no doubt...
Polar vort will likely split with the subtropiocal jet blasting into the large cold air mass forecast to move over the eastern third...This could get really bad, and record breaking snow and ice is more than possible...Good morning Nea.
Quoting 209. hydrus:

Polar vort will likely split with the subtropiocal jet blasting into the large cold air mass forecast to move over the eastern third...This could get really bad, and record breaking snow and ice is more than possible...Good morning Nea.


If I could have the record snowfall, that'd be great.
Quoting 208. Neapolitan:

The temperature in Longyearbyen on Svalbard is 45F. That's many, many degrees above the normal high for this time of year. Svalbard, it should be noted, lies above 78 N, deep inside the Arctic Circle. That is, it's half as close to the North Pole as Honolulu is to the Equator. And the sun hasn't risen in weeks.

All perfectly normal, no doubt...


To play devils advocate Eureka, Nunavut at 79.98 N latitude is reporting -32F and will be below/well below average for the 26th day of 29 this month. Shorts must have been donned on December 16th when it was a "toasty" -1 ;) To quote Patrap "2015 - The Year The Climate Struck Back". Odd for sure.

Edit: Seems the station and/or forecast changed since the initial post but irregardless the point of the post was the weather extremes either hot/warm or cold/cool from one area to another. I'd delve around a bit more but one of the few stuck at work this week.
Good Afternoon Class!
About 12 hours from now at the north pole a temp is predicted to be +2.5/C, warm enough to melt "Ice!"
Here's the link from the wind map with modifications to show temperatures.

Link

If you click on the link you can move things around a bit.

214. beell

Iceland temps @ 19:43Z
Graphic will not update-click image for current aviationweather.gov METARS sites.
Quoting 214. beell:


Iceland temps @ 19:43Z
Graphic will not update-click image for current aviationweather.gov METARS sites.

Iceland about 12 hours from now, wind map.
I'm getting readings of 130KPH projected or about 80 MPH.

Link
Something tells me that something is seriously 'dysfunctional' with the weather. Apart from the ridiculously huge Arctic temperature anomalies noted below, rainfall and temperature records are being not just broken, but demolished, here in Europe and in North America. Switzerland has had its warmest ever December, and there's no snow in the ski resorts. They don't even bother making snow for the ski runs, as it just melts.

December average temperature in New York City is 14F above average and and an incredible 8F above the previous record in a dataset going back to 1871.

After floods in Yorkshire, UK, new flood defences were built five years ago to protect against flooding with a return period of 100 years. These defences were overtopped at the weekend by an incredible 16 inches.

Here, where I live in southern Scotland, storm 'Frank' is slowly winding up. It has an incredibly low central pressure in the low 920s, but is staying well west of Scotland and the hurricane force winds will visit Iceland. However, a trailing front from the system will produce up to four inches of rain in my area. Not much compared to the 13 inches that landed on Cumbria 100 miles to the south, in the first week of the month, but the ground here can't absorb any more, and river levels are high, so flooding is expected.

We live in interesting times.
Quoting 191. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I'm looking forward to the cooler weather that is forecast for later this weekend.
But we should finish December with 21 days over 80 degrees (11 of which at or above 85 degrees) here in Fort Myers.


Yesterday they were predicting a high temp in Port St. Lucie to be 68 for Sat/Sun.
Now it's changed to mid/upper 70s.

So much for a winterizing front this weekend.
Quoting 211. StAugustineFL:



To play devils advocate Eureka, Nunavut at 79.98 N latitude is reporting -32F and will be below/well below average for the 26th day of 29 this month. Shorts must have been donned on December 16th when it was a "toasty" -1 ;) To quote Patrap "2015 - The Year The Climate Struck Back". Odd for sure.


But the average high temperature during the month of December in Eureka general averages -21 F, -27F in January. The average lows are -34 F in Dec and -40 F in Jan. Those numbers are no where close in deviation from the anomalies in the climaticological averages as to what they are seeing Svalbard...

LINK

EDIT:

I just ran an average for the month of December in the first 29 days the average temperature high was -31F, the low -41F Thats good for a -10F anomaly over 29 days compared to Svalbard whose average high is -11 F in Dec with average lows of -18F. They have averaged 23 F for a high and 14 F for a low. That is good for a 34 F above average anomaly over the first 29 days of December, compared to -10 F anomaly that you provided in comparison for Eureka.
219. vis0

Quoting 150. barbamz:


Current IR pic of Europe nicely shows the bisection of our weather: calm high pressure to the right (east) and this stormy curly mess to the left over the Atlantic (west). Source for updates.


Just wow. Surface map for tomorrow (German Eckard = English Frank).

But now I have to go for a while and do something useful ;-)


Already approaching sunset in Chiemsee/Southern Germany. Source.
There is the start of a few ...

blizzOcanes (fictitious Wx name taken from washi115s style as  to LandOcane)
or tropical blizzard or hurrzzard

i created a nice name from LATIN definitions, posted last spring cannot find it %#$%@!.

As things balance out some more towards the USofA as we head into this next ~2 month wxtrend in a few days, and if we see wound up STRONG  LOWS off both coasts that will be weird...wonder if a UKofE - German STORM names might match up to represent well known combos as Tom & Jerry or Abbot & Costello or  Bob & Jeff or  Johnson & Johnson or Siegfried & Roy... whats dat Taz..^Bat^man & Rob'n ???


Going to be hard as storms over eastern Europe usualy do not miss Western Europe and less so vice versa IF any LOW heads E towards W.  So most storm names will only be 2 or 3 (First letter) separated so Abbot & Costello could be but Bob & Jeff needs 7 storms to hit Germany but not UKofE...maybe as the Mediterranean warms up it could happen.
Storm Rainfall Totals from last night from NWS San Diego. Central and Southern San Diego County received the most rain .20-.42 while points north got 0.00-0.20. I think Mexico might actually have received the most rain!

Sunshine Summit (My Location )............0.06
Harbison Canyon ( Most Rain ) 20 miles east of San Diego..........0.42

All the rest locations
Link
Cloud cover has kept us at 31, forecast is 34, but we've been hanging here for some time. Avg winds down a little & more SW, pressure about same.

More river reports - MS was closed to barge traffic in StL last night, still open N & S (less bridges to damage). MS levee about to breach near W Alton, MO & non mandatory evacuation in place (NW of MO/MS confluence). This may be why peak level in downtown StL was dropped about a foot to just under 44'. MO Natonal Guard has been activated for assistance in flood areas. Flooding to downtown Alton, IL businesses' basements is to be expected. Town of Union, MO (SW of metro) is experiencing major flooding. Saw helicopter shots on StL tv at lunch of Jack in Box, McDonalds, gas stations, & a strip mall that just opened recently all under a couple of feet of water near intersection of US 50 & MO 47. Menard Correctional Center in Chester, IL is expecting substantial impact to operations as MS expected to match 1993's 49.7' there. Edit: Sewage flowing into Meremac River after Fenton plant inundated, one in Valley Park also threatened.
Quoting 202. vis0:

Many lost their life and and includes::
Singer Craig Strickland missing, friend dead after hunting in storm - CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/29/entertainment/oklah oma-craig-strickland-missing/


That doesn't sound good... Kinda of a prophetic last tweet too.
Quoting 219. vis0:





Quoting 195. sar2401:

Just let it go, Matt. You'll accomplish nothing except getting banned. Things are just what they are.


How much rain did you end up with last night? Last I saw was 1.61, I think. Any major problems at your place or in town?


"Explosive cyclogenesis" of Frank (BBC weather should be cautious though, when using this term on twitter, according to this tweet, lol). Notice as well the clash of cultures over Germany: mild "Atlantic" pressing from the west, and her cold highness "Christine" from the east ...


Current saved rain radar from the British Isles. Here the latest or the loop.
Quoting 208. Neapolitan:

The temperature in Longyearbyen on Svalbard is 45F. That's many, many degrees above the normal high for this time of year. Svalbard, it should be noted, lies above 78 N, deep inside the Arctic Circle. That is, it's half as close to the North Pole as Honolulu is to the Equator. And the sun hasn't risen in weeks.

All perfectly normal, no doubt...

Interesting that the temps in the area are not projected to return to "below Zero" until at least next Wednesday.
We have to bear in mind that this place is at about 80 degrees north and in total darkness, they don't even have "moon rise," let alone any chance of sun rise!

Link
Quoting 219. vis0:

As things balance out some more towards the USofA as we head into this next ~2 month wxtrend in a few days, and if we see wound up STRONG  LOWS off both coasts that will be weird...wonder if a UKofE - German STORM names might match up to represent well known combos as Tom & Jerry or Abbot & Costello or  Bob & Jeff or  Johnson & Johnson or Siegfried & Roy... whats dat Taz..^Bat^man & Rob'n ??? ...

Ah, Vis0, you got some ideas, lol.
Quoting 218. ILwthrfan:



But the average high temperature during the month of December in Eureka general averages -21 F, -27F in January. The average lows are -34 F in Dec and -40 F in Jan. Those numbers are no where close in deviation from the anomalies in the climaticological averages as to what they are seeing Svalbard...

LINK



While that certainly is true for today I would disagree with "no where close" if looking at the calendar view for the month of December.

From Nea's link: http://i.imgur.com/Kirvu7l.png

Eureka: http://i.imgur.com/s2PNFHY.png

Just saw your edit. Using the link originally posted in 208 the daily averages are nowhere near as cold as mentioned in your post. Anyway, I'm not here to get into a urinating contest. As originally noted, I was making mention of the extremes from one location to another and the "weather whiplash". I'll keep my mouth shut and stick to the member blogs. Have a nice day all.
I was wrong, instead of .10 inches for the SoCal storm early next week, we will get nothing! It's going south into Mexico! This is not the drought buster we've been told about!!
Quoting 220. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm Rainfall Totals from last night from NWS San Diego. Central and Southern San Diego County received the most rain .20-.42 while points north got 0.00-0.20. I think Mexico might actually have received the most rain!

Sunshine Summit (My Location )............0.06
Harbison Canyon ( Most Rain ) 20 miles east of San Diego..........0.42

All the rest locations
Link


Indian Hills PWS reported .03, CoCoRaHS around the corner didn't report anything.
Another cold Santa Ana is not a drought buster either! Dry winds and dying cold fronts is not what we were promised, why do have we been told month after month it's coming?
Quoting 222. Dakster:



That doesn't sound good... Kinda of a prophetic last tweet too.


When I first heard this story I was like "what?"
The Winter Storm had been in the news for about a week prior to this. Who takes a tiny boat out on a lake when there is going to be 50 mph winds?
I truly don't understand how things like this happen.



Quoting 231. MtotheJ:

Another cold Santa Ana is not a drought buster either! Dry winds and dying cold fronts is not what we were promised, why do have we been told month after month it's coming?

Where are you located?
Quoting 233. PedleyCA:


Where are you located?
South of LA north of San Diego, sorry for venting but this is not looking like classic El Niño for us and we keep being told its on the horizon.
Mesoscale Convective Complex yesterday between Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil:

http://i.picasion.com/pic81/0eaf8f0cd349a8fe5d0f4 1712502acfd.gif

Historic flood in West Rio Grande do Sul, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina, nearly 600 mm of rain this month in some areas.
Quoting 232. Sfloridacat5:



When I first heard this story I was like "what?"
The Winter Storm had been in the news for about a week prior to this. Who takes a tiny boat out on a lake when there is going to be 50 mph winds?
I truly don't understand how things like this happen.






Must be related to the person that takes out a single engine cessna into forecasted 100 mph gusts in Anchorage. And the crashes into buildings in downtown Anchorage..

Link
Quoting 198. sar2401:

I'm not convinced we're going to see any influx of cold air over the next 10 days or so. These impulses have been predicted pretty regularly this month, and the actual weather has been much different. The polar jet is still stuck way up north, and the supply of cold air is generally lacking. You may see temperatures near to, but still above normal, by next Tuesday. I should be right at normal, highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. It's going to take a much bigger pattern shift for you to see cool temperatures than what i see on the horizon.


The timing of the cool air is perfect for my hunting trip this weekend to SW Alabama, highs in the low to mid 50's with lows in the low to mid 30's, maybe even a low in the upper 20's one morning. I skipped going up Christmas weekend since temps were so warm, Deer don't tend to move a whole lot when temperatures are way above average.
Quoting 202. vis0:

Many lost their life and and includes::
Singer Craig Strickland missing, friend dead after hunting in storm - CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/29/entertainment/oklah oma-craig-strickland-missing/


What's messed up about these guys is they jokingly tweeted they might not make it back because they were taking this hunting trip out on a lake right through the passing of Winter Storm Goliath. Bad things happen when you don't take bad weather seriously.


Avalanche Hits Farmhouse, Rivers Swell in East
Iceland Review, 10 hours ago
The storm that plagued East Iceland yesterday caused an avalanche to fall on a farmhouse in Adalbol, Hrafnkelsdalur valley, north of Eyjabakkajokull glacier in Vatnajokull glacier, RUV reports. Pall Palsson, who was home at the time, heard loud rumbling and felt an immense blow as the avalanche hit the house at 5 pm yesterday. The avalanche burst through three windows.
The farmer at Adalbol, Gisli Palsson, was stuck in a hut on the other side of Hrafnkela river as the avalanche hit. He had been out there looking for sheep when the river flooded with ice, preventing him from being able to cross it. He was picked up by rescue workers, who reached him by snowmobile in the early morning hours and brought home.
The storm has caused rivers to swell to record levels, RUV reports. Warmer temperatures, along with substantial rain, have led to such rapid melting of ice that water levels in the rivers Geithellnaa and Fossa in Berufjordur increased twenty-fold yesterday in less than 24 hours. The flow in Geithellnaa river exceeded 480 cubic meters per second midday yesterday. That's the most on record, the last record dating back to October 31, 1980, when the flow measured 454 cubic meters per second. The flow in Fossa in Berufjordur exceeded 220 cubic meters per second yesterday. ...


Good night with these insights - best wishes for all affected by "Frank" (or any other severe weather); mind that there is a second low in the wake of Frank, hitting the British Isles in the morning ...

Another cold Santa Ana is not a drought buster either! Dry winds and dying cold fronts is not what we were promised, why do have we been told month after month it's coming?

Here is the answer.

RMR 7 day forecast

http://youtu.be/wkDvqQKGgDA
Quoting 238. 69Viking:



What's messed up about these guys is they jokingly tweeted they might not make it back because they were taking this hunting trip out on a lake right through the passing of Winter Storm Goliath. Bad things happen when you don't take bad weather seriously.


And based on the report, they weren't even wearing life jackets.
Quoting 227. StAugustineFL:



While that certainly is true for today I would disagree with "no where close" if looking at the calendar view for the month of December.

From Nea's link: http://i.imgur.com/Kirvu7l.png

Eureka: http://i.imgur.com/s2PNFHY.png

Just saw your edit. Using the link originally posted in 208 the daily averages are nowhere near as cold as mentioned in your post. Anyway, I'm not here to get into a urinating contest. As originally noted, I was making mention of the extremes from one location to another and the "weather whiplash". I'll keep my mouth shut and stick to the member blogs. Have a nice day all.


Quoting 227. StAugustineFL:



While that certainly is true for today I would disagree with "no where close" if looking at the calendar view for the month of December.

From Nea's link: http://i.imgur.com/Kirvu7l.png

Eureka: http://i.imgur.com/s2PNFHY.png

Just saw your edit. Using the link originally posted in 208 the daily averages are nowhere near as cold as mentioned in your post. Anyway, I'm not here to get into a urinating contest. As originally noted, I was making mention of the extremes from one location to another and the "weather whiplash". I'll keep my mouth shut and stick to the member blogs. Have a nice day all.


Noted. wiki just averaged the 30 day span across the month. I grabbed the underground data for the daily highs but grabbed the averages from wiki. Seems to be discrepancies in Svalbard from the data i grabbed. I will have to double check the source of the site again. The averages were correct for Eureka that I calculated, but as you pointed out something is off with Svalbard, Norway. I may of pulled from a different site location. Thank you for the find.
Quoting 241. Sfloridacat5:



And based on the report, they weren't even wearing life jackets.


If I'm in a boat and storms are coming you better bet I'll be putting the lifejacket on and my crew will be too! Personally I would never go out in a boat knowing that kind of storm was coming. My teenage son thought I was unreasonable when I told him he couldn't go see Star Wars at 9 pm at night 21 miles from home during the worst of the thunderstorms we had. The weather cleared and he went the next day without worrying his Mom and me near as much.
244. vis0
"rapidly intensifying along a jet stream ripping above the ocean at 230 mph.
"   (why weird::not a short area but long area, not super high up but lower)
" more than 50 millibars in 24 hours between Monday night and Tuesday night"  (why weird:: WINTER...Polar area)

"Robert Scribbler (Environmental blogger) notes this storm will be linked within a “daisy chain”
of two other powerful North Atlantic low pressure systems forming a
“truly extreme storm system.” "  (why weird:: not 1 big storm but 2 or 3 with 1 being super big)

if i heard this 35 yrs ago i would have said::

Why are they mentioning Jupiter's / Saturn's (great RED or Great WHITE spot) weather, while mentioning the Atlantic?
(P.S. Atlantic is at times referred to the big Pond, and look what its building on it)

hmm i wonder if Chile is ready for TS or weird AmosRio ||Rio◄es|en►River|| in the near future (~2-3 yrs). i have a feeling PabloSyn will be reporting from (SAFELY) Chile one day as to a TS.?
69Viking - I do the same thing with my family. At times, we just look at the weather and say, it isn't worth the risk. Go the next day or later.
Quoting 240. Qazulight:


Another cold Santa Ana is not a drought buster either! Dry winds and dying cold fronts is not what we were promised, why do have we been told month after month it's coming?

Here is the answer.

RMR 7 day forecast

http://youtu.be/wkDvqQKGgDA
Very good! I will kiss the ever forecasted rain for SoCal, goodbye!
Quoting 245. Dakster:

69Viking - I do the same thing with my family. At times, we just look at the weather and say, it isn't worth the risk. Go the next day or later.


The Hwy he would have been driving on is nicknamed Bloody 98 and anytime it rains it's pretty scary even for somebody who has 30+ years of driving like I do. He's on Christmas break so I just told him to go the next day when the weather would be better, funny thing is all his friends decided that was a better idea too when he told them he couldn't go!
Quoting 240. Qazulight:


Another cold Santa Ana is not a drought buster either! Dry winds and dying cold fronts is not what we were promised, why do have we been told month after month it's coming?

Here is the answer.

RMR 7 day forecast

http://youtu.be/wkDvqQKGgDA


'Cloudy with a Chance of making things up"
249. vis0
^RobertWC links if not linking try::

Freak storm in North Atlantic to lash UK, may push temperatures over 50 degrees above normal at North Pole - The Washington Post

VLJ Embraer Phenom 100 Landing at Narsarsuaq Airport in Greenland (BGBW)   Enter into a Google Search the BOLD words then YOU SELECT VID YOU WANT TO SEE



Rain is back in NW Florida!

251. vis0

Quoting 211. StAugustineFL:



To play devils advocate Eureka, Nunavut at 79.98 N latitude is reporting -32F and will be below/well below average for the 26th day of 29 this month. Shorts must have been donned on December 16th when it was a "toasty" -1 ;) To quote Patrap "2015 - The Year The Climate Struck Back". Odd for sure.

Edit: Seems the station and/or forecast changed since the initial post but irregardless the point of the post was the weather extremes either hot/warm or cold/cool from one area to another. I'd delve around a bit more but one of the few stuck at work this week.
Yup, as i state (others too) we'll see extremes towards both sides (colder/hotter), yet the year in final a record breaking warmest year...hence Patrap (hope is okay probably busy with so many "in need" as to the floods, tornadoes and blizzard) will have to type something ;like this

Instead of "2015 - The Year The Climate Struck Back". its  2015  2018 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 2026 -The Years The Climate Struck Back (a best seller TITLE.  Just leave the last 2 digits blank on the cover, reader fill in those 2 numbers)

"2015 - 2025 The Decade The Climate began to Strike Back".

How will mankind ever be able to refreeze all that melted ice?
Just to be a 2nd devils advocate someone might figure out (or URL point to a paper stating) how cold Earth has to be and how long (The Globe not locally) to FULLY  refreeze SOLIDLY what has melted in the pat 15 yrs)

Longyearbyen has reached 8.3 C beating the December record of 7.5 C. Records at Longyearbyen go back to 1907.
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

SAT-MONDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ORIENTED MORE WEST-EAST AND
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH, THE
FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AS IT STALLS OUT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. ITS PRESENCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE BRINGS IN DEEPER MOISTURE. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GFS IN THE SURFACE FEATURE EVOLUTION LATE SUN - MONDAY,
BUT BOTH DO SHOW SOME CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE FL COAST SUN NIGHT
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND THEN SENDING IT OFF TO THE NE INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THOUGH LIKELY STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1236 PM PST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
YESTERDAY IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH
OF THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. BY NEW YEARS DAY...THE
TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE AND RETROGRADE WEST...CUTTING OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER NV INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
SUPPRESSED EVEN AS OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE SFC
HIGH REACHES ABOUT 1045 MBS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO ON FRI. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS ACROSS SOCAL.

LOOK FOR MODEST WARMING WEST OF THE MTS INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MTS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN CHECK
WITH SLIGHT COOLING OR LITTLE CHANGE.

THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BECOMES PART OF A REX BLOCK
COUPLET THAT COVERS FAR WESTERN N.A. THIS STRONG BLOCKING FEATURE IS
FULLY DEVELOPED BY FRI AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE TRACKING STORMS
BREAKING ACROSS THE EASTPAC NEXT WEEKEND. SYSTEMS COMING UP TO THE
BLOCK APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING/SPLITTING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ENERGY HEADED SOUTH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST BEYOND THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRING OF THESE WAVES EXPECTED TO
GIVE US AT LEAST A SHOT AT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE.

More hemming and hawwing about the forecast.........Don't like the sound of it! Maybe the consolidated Polar/Sub-Tropical Jet that is enhanced by El Nino will deliver it's energy to NW Mexico instead of California and that would be a BUMMER! Hopefully it is a temporary thing and it will swing north for the spring.
From Drs Henson and Masters

The only other year with December having more deaths than any other single month was 1931, according to statistics analyzed by Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory).

From the Jax weather discussion

JAX AND GNV ARE ON PACE FOR THE 2ND WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD
BEHIND 1931.
Dinner Time on the East Coast or a giant Blog Hole...
Surprised that any development occurs so close to the equator.

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0006 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W

B. 29/2330Z

C. 00.9N

D. 175.8W

E. HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/XX.X/XX HRS

G. VIS/IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS IS THE INITIAL FIX FROM PHFO. SYSTEM WRAPS 0.20
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PAT AND MET ARE NOT YET APPLICABLE...THEREFORE
FT IS BASED ON DT.
Quoting 257. nrtiwlnvragn:

Surprised that any development occurs so close to the equator.

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0006 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W

B. 29/2330Z

C. 00.9N

D. 175.8W

E. HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/XX.X/XX HRS

G. VIS/IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS IS THE INITIAL FIX FROM PHFO. SYSTEM WRAPS 0.20
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PAT AND MET ARE NOT YET APPLICABLE...THEREFORE
FT IS BASED ON DT.






What would happen if it crossed the equator? Part of the circulation must be on the other side of the equator--does that mean that part is circulating anticyclonicaly?
Quoting 250. 69Viking:

Rain is back in NW Florida!


Some decent looking storms headed up from your place to Dothan right now. The rain about six hours ahead of schedule, and it's not coming from the right direction for this to be just the old front lifting north. Looks like an ULL may be forming just off the Panhandle, which is going to throw another monkey wrench into the models and the forecast.
Quoting 258. weathergirl2001:



What would happen if it crossed the equator? Part of the circulation must be on the other side of the equator--does that mean that part is circulating anticyclonicaly?


It'll retain its counterclockwise spin, at least for a little while.

This little swirl, for example, crossed from the South Atlantic to the North Atlantic in June 2008.

Link
Quoting 248. PedleyCA:



'Cloudy with a Chance of making things up"


That should be the title of the third movie in that series.
Quoting 255. weathergirl2001:

From Drs Henson and Masters

The only other year with December having more deaths than any other single month was 1931, according to statistics analyzed by Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory).

From the Jax weather discussion

JAX AND GNV ARE ON PACE FOR THE 2ND WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD
BEHIND 1931.
1931...Nino year.
3.2 4km SSW of Devore, California 2015-12-30 01:55:14 UTC 5.6 km
3.8 4km S of Devore, California 2015-12-30 01:53:45 UTC 5.8 km
4.4 4km SSW of Devore, California 2015-12-30 01:48:57 UTC 5.6 km

Felt the first two, these are about 20 miles away from me.
Very close to or on the San Andreas fault.

5 day prog shows Pacific jet undercutting the West Coast ridge by Sunday, stranding a weaker northern jet in a split, and putting California in the left exit region of the main jet axis, with an orientation suggesting a warm (and moist) advection pattern.
Coronal Mass Ejection from a 1.9-class solar flare is headed directly toward earth. Northern Lights should be seen more southerly than usual tomorrow night.
GEOS-5 did have some rain for California next week. Two lows approach the coast way north and combine. The tail from each brings in some rain..
Monday

Wednesday
This heavy, heavy rain forecast at the end of the run wouldn't help the Mississippi River flooding situation at all. The way these have panned out wouldn't surprise to see this occur a little farther north than advertised here.
A guy in Massachusetts got in a road rage incident with a snow truck plow driver. He had attempted to turn onto a road and nearly hit the plow. Then followed him to a parking lot and pulled out an unloaded gun. He was taken into custody after an onlooker called him in. The snow plow driver got arrested for assault.
271. MahFL
Quoting 236. Dakster:



Must be related to the person that takes out a single engine cessna into forecasted 100 mph gusts in Anchorage. And the crashes into buildings in downtown Anchorage..


If you read the story it sounds like suicide, he circled around two times then he flew into the building his wife works in.
Mississippi River maybe in for some extended, historic flooding in spots.
Quoting 268. Skyepony:

A guy in Massachusetts got in a road rage incident with a snow truck plow driver. He had attempted to turn onto a road and nearly hit the plow. Then followed him to a parking lot and pulled out an unloaded gun. He was taken into custody after an onlooker called him in. The snow plow driver got arrested for assault.


Oh wonderful. Maybe he was trying to outdo the Texas knife guy who made an attempt on Jeff Piotrowski.

What the heck is wrong with people? I swear they've all gone insane.
Quoting 272. Skyepony:

Mississippi River maybe in for some extended, historic flooding in spots.

I wonder if they will spill some through the Atchafalaya at the Old River Control Structure, as mentioned in the main blog. It is only natural that large rivers with deltas change course periodically over the centuries as the original outlet gets clogged with silt. How many more decades can we hold back the mighty Mississippi?
276. beell
Quoting 274. guygee:

I wonder if they will spill some through the Atchafalaya at the Old River Control Structure, as mentioned in the main blog. It is only natural that large rivers with deltas change course periodically over the centuries as the original outlet gets clogged with silt. How many more decades can we hold back the mighty Mississippi?


I doubt that is under serious consideration at this time. Forecast flows are still a good ways from "Project Flood" triggers and hopefully, this will be a quick pulse moving downriver. There will be flooding. Nothing in the long-range to indicate large amounts of rain/snow across the drainages-that could always change of course.

Most Mississippi River watchers (15 years at the end of the Atchafalaya here :)) are familiar with how close we came to losing the Old River Control Structure (the Low Sill Structure that regulates the amount of water leaving the Mississippi to the Atchafalaya) in the 1973 spring flood. It was severely compromised and required the addition of another control structure to bring it back to design limits.

The following excerpt is an account from a guy with the USACE Waterways Experiment Station:

...In the meantime, activities of the Waterways Division received an unexpected, and highly unwelcome, stimulus from an old nemesis: Old River. The 1963 completion of the massive Old River Control Structure had at least temporarily discouraged the Mississippi River from taking the shorter route to the Gulf of Mexico provided by the Atchafalaya River Basin. For 10 years the facility functioned essentially as the Corps had predicted, although problems arose periodically. In 1964 eight runaway barges slammed into the low-sill structure, forcing operators to close its gates. After removal of the barges, reopening of the gates produced unexpected hydraulic stresses that caused extensive scour damages. The next year a similar accident resulted in more scouring. Diligent control of barge tows prevented further such occurrences, but events had already exposed the structure as far from invincible.45

In 1973 the Mississippi River rose to challenge the very survival of the low-sill structure, a key to the Corps’ entire Lower Mississippi Valley flood control plan. By mid-March a huge flood pressed between the levees from above Memphis to the Gulf of Mexico. Diversion of only one-fourth of the main stem produced a flow of water six stories deep thundering through the low-sill structure’s control gates. In April, as flood waters continued to pour down the Lower Mississippi, a guide wall on the southern inflow (Mississippi River) side began to move, then disappeared. The entire low-sill complex shook noticeably. Even opening the down river Morganza Floodway for the first and only time did little to relieve the pressure.

Soundings indicated that a 50-foot-deep scour hole had developed on the inflow side of the low-sill structure, while a hole the size of a small football stadium had formed on the outflow side. With floodwaters preventing more detailed appraisal or control of the damage, the Corps dumped 200,000 tons of riprap into the scour holes, hoping to prevent further harm. Had the scour holes joined, the low-sill structure might well have collapsed and the Mississippi River potentially would flow to the Gulf through the Atchafalaya Basin. The Corps, as well as millions of inhabitants of the Lower Mississippi River Valley, faced an enormous crisis.

Although the low-sill structure held, post-flood investigations revealed extensive damage. When the Corps drilled holes down through the concrete dam with special diamond-tipped bits and lowered a television camera, the first thing the Lower Mississippi Valley Division Engineer saw was fish where there should have been solid foundation.47 One Corps document stated that the foundation under approximately half of the low-sill structure had been “drastically and irrevocably” changed.

Link


Photo of the Low Sill Structure at Old River showing the collapsed south wing wall (circled). The north wing wall on the opposite side of the structure.

There was a scour cavity on each side of the structure at the wing wall. If they had met...

Re: 276. Good info, thanks beell. I am forever grateful to the Corps of Engineers for funding me as a grad student, many years ago. Even then they were being increasingly under-funded, and the trend is continuing to this day. What concerns me the most is our that government is allowing our basic civil infrastructure to deteriorate, at the same time that climate change is increasing the number and severity of extreme weather events. We need to get our priorities straight and take care of our children and grandchildren, investing in our country instead of wasting money on bailing out Wall Street gamblers and wars on the other side of the world. Do we really need more disasters on the scale of Katrina to finally wake up?
Quoting 275. Gearsts:





Does this mean there's a major ice storm in Houston, TX's future?
279. beell
Re: 277 @ guygee.

"Do we really need more disasters on the scale of Katrina to finally wake up?
"

I don't have a good response, guygee.
:(

On a good day, our only hope is:
"Necessity is the Mother of Invention"

On a bad day...
"The road to h*** is paved with good inventions".
:)

I was fussing and fretting about cairo, thebes, and new madrid last night.

Will continue to do so.

carry on...
Quoting 234. MtotheJ:

South of LA north of San Diego, sorry for venting but this is not looking like classic El Niño for us and we keep being told its on the horizon.


Gotta keep the faith........we still got 3-4 months, but I can relate to your feelings on the matter.


Quoting 278. pureet1948:




Does this mean there's a major ice storm in Houston, TX's future?


Nope
Quoting 277. guygee:

Re: 276. Good info, thanks beell. I am forever grateful to the Corps of Engineers for funding me as a grad student, many years ago. Even then they were being increasingly under-funded, and the trend is continuing to this day. What concerns me the most is our that government is allowing our basic civil infrastructure to deteriorate, at the same time that climate change is increasing the number and severity of extreme weather events. We need to get our priorities straight and take care of our children and grandchildren, investing in our country instead of wasting money on bailing out Wall Street gamblers and wars on the other side of the world. Do we really need more disasters on the scale of Katrina to finally wake up?


We are going 3rd world if we don't wake up soon! Republicans want to go back to the 1850's or is it 1950's?
Quoting 277. guygee:
Do we really need more disasters on the scale of Katrina to finally wake up?


No. It'll take bigger ones, and you can be certain we'll get them. By then, we'll be flat broke, our infrastructure will be in tatters, and so will our economy. If the war machine doesn't suck us dry, then Wall Street and the 1% will. The bill for the drunken binge we've been on since WW2 will finally come due, and those most able to pay will have hopped on the nearest yacht and sailed into the sunset.

At least how things are looking now. :P
Quoting 282. HurricaneHunterJoe:





Nope


They're trying to play up that possibility on the KHOU.com Weather Forum. Joe Bastardi says the south may have conditions similar to January 1997. We had a pretty bad ice storm back then.

Do they know something you don't?
Tim Marshall, a structural engineer and meteorologist, has been surveying the Rowlett/Garland EF4 tornado damage with NWS Fort Worth over the past few days. Looks like many building constructors have been doing their jobs hastily and illegally.

Home that was improperly attached w/ cut nails to the perimeter of the foundation (many others had this same construction):



The walls of this school weren't even attached to the steel frame! EF1 damage as a result...



Cheap labor > the safety of homeowners...apparently.
Thanks Keep.
Comment was directed to many people! Mostly the one's who went through the terrible weather that hit the southern and south east US through the time that they should have been celebrations. I guess I hit a nerve, which was not implied.

Quoting 188. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no its indirect cursing not intended to single out any one person not an attack on any one or reference too any individual
This same type of work was discovered after hurricane Andrew in south Fl.
Seems some individuals feel money will compensate for human lives.
UNBELIEVABLE!


Quoting 286. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tim Marshall, a structural engineer and meteorologist, has been surveying the Rowlett/Garland EF4 tornado damage with NWS Fort Worth over the past few days. Looks like many building constructors have been doing their jobs hastily and illegally.

Home that was improperly attached w/ cut nails to the perimeter of the foundation (many others had this same construction):



The walls of this school weren't even attached to the steel frame! EF1 damage as a result...



Cheap labor > the safety of homeowners...apparently.
Quoting 289. swflurker:

This same type of work was discovered after hurricane Andrew in south Fl.
Seems some individuals feel money will compensate for human lives.
UNBELIEVABLE!






What you're saying is this wasn't all the weather's fault.
Quoting 285. pureet1948:



They're trying to play up that possibility on the KHOU.com Weather Forum. Joe Bastardi says the south may have conditions similar to January 1997. We had a pretty bad ice storm back then.

Do they know something you don't?


Same group that were saying Houston might not survive this past weekend?
Quoting 291. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Same group that were saying Houston might not survive this past weekend?


If the system had been further south, some of us might not have survived.
Quoting 289. swflurker:

This same type of work was discovered after hurricane Andrew in south Fl.
Seems some individuals feel money will compensate for human lives.
UNBELIEVABLE!





Substandard Labor, Substandard Materials=Substandard Construction, but we don't want too much regulation? Makes for increased costs? Anyone surprised?
If you read what i posted, i was just trying to compare this with construction that is not being done to current standards and could pose a risk to more lives lost when a storm hits. Just think if the dwelling you live in, and that epic storm hits your area, isn't properly built, it could cost you loss of your possessions, or, even worse.

Quoting 290. pureet1948:




What you're saying is this wasn't all the weather's fault.
Quoting 292. pureet1948:



If the system had been further south, some of us might not have survived.


If? Woulda? Coulda? Maybe? Possibly? Potentially?
Coffee Break!
00Z 30 Dec GFS


00Z 29 Dec GFS



I personally like the latest run........from a 1006mb yesterday to a 997mb system tonight. Models still flip flopping. Tomorrow ? Who knows.
Quoting 297. HurricaneHunterJoe:

00Z 30 Dec GFS


00Z 29 Dec GFS



I personally like the latest run........from a 1006mb yesterday to a 997mb system tonight. Models still flip flopping. Tomorrow ? Who knows.
Interesting joe, now IF we follow the GFS,it has a Gulf Low crossing Florida on the 4th,then Another low across south florida on the 7th.
Quoting 298. LargoFl:

Interesting joe, now IF we follow the GFS,it has a Gulf Low crossing Florida on the 4th,then Another low across south florida on the 7th.


yup, Cali has 3 storms coming in on Pacific Jet and running in to high pressure and weakening taking a NE route, while Fla is getting 3, first 2 look like perhaps of subtropical jet into gulf from pacific, while Calis 3rd storm might get down your way. These things flipping so much it is dicey for Cali storms.......yours look more likely, but gotta check the jet stream forecasts
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA, CATEGORY ONE (05F)
18:00 PM FST December 30 2015
============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ula, Category One (993 hPa) located at 12.0S 167.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. Position fair based on multispectral/GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Overall organization and convection has improved significantly in past 12 hours with convective bands wrapping around the system from the north. System lies south of an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Ula is being steered to the south by the subtropical ridge. Dvorak analysis based on 0.60 wrap giving DT=3.0, MET and PAT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 14.2S 167.8W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.6S 168.8W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 117.3S 173.W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
Jan 4


Jan 7
ECMWF is slower and weaker


Quoting 292. pureet1948:



If the system had been further south, some of us might not have survived.


You're one of the most paranoid people I've ever seen, dude. Seriously.
Good morning.


NOAA has "Frank" at 928mb over Iceland now.

Secondary low is about to hit British Isles the next hours:


Windmap here.


Wavemap here.


Lots of power outages and flood(warning)s.

BBC Live: Storm Frank hits UK

Guardian: Storm Frank: further floods expected as gales and rain batter British Isles - live

BBC live report especially for Cumbria.

Near the southern coast of Ireland yesterday:



Purple record heat signals from the arctic (Svalbard) and elsewhere (f.e. on the other side of the globe in South Africa) the last 24h. Source.
Extreme Weather Causes Damage in East Fjords
Iceland Review, By Vala Hafstad Nature & Travel about 2 hours ago
The severe weather in the East Fjords is among the worst residents have ever experienced, RUV reports. The situation is the worst in Eskifjordur, where a high sea level land hurricane-force winds have threatened the marina. Part of the dock came loose, but rescue workers managed to fasten it. The surf has inundated all docks and the whole harbor area. Roof sheets have blown off several houses. There was high tide at 5:30 am, but since then, water levels have subsided somewhat. Boats that came loose in the marina were successfully tied down. Basements have flooded and tidal waves have reached cabins, never before affected by sea water. Some homes are without power. ...

VIDEO: "Absolutely crazy" storm in East Iceland
Iceland Monitor | Wed 30 Dec 2015 | 9.56 GMT

East-Iceland, Jokulsarlon-webcam. Usually with large chunks of ice from the glacier, but not right now.
Quoting 306. NoobDave:


Donald Trump will be the next POTUS, I don t think you can do much to avoid this.


Sure thing, buddy. Did you cast the i-ching or something?

Well, for you SoCal peeps.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
338 AM PST WED DEC 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAJOR SHIFT IN OUR PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW PARKED
OVER NEVADA WILL HELP TO SET UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
PAC NW THIS WEEKEND...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT TO TRACK THIS SERIES OF TROUGHS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG...BETWEEN ABOUT 30 TO 40 DEGREES LATITUDE.
BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPS THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FIRST
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A WET PATTERN FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC FROM EASTERN ASIA. THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS MAY HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO TAP THE ABNORMALLY WARM
TROPICAL PACIFIC.

FOR NOW WE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...SUCH AS THE
STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME...AFFECTING EACH PERIODS FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NW AND HELP BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER...WITH SOME COOLER AIR COMBINING TO
BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FORECAST TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
MESSAGE FOR NOW IS THAT OF AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF
BRINGING THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET INTO THE REGION WITH A PARADE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS RIDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK.

So, are you happy now? Never heard so much whining as in the past few days from you guys..

Here's a great discussion out of Phoenix, a little closer to my locale:

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW FAR
INTO THE FUTURE IT STILL IS...THAT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS
ON THE WAY FOR OUR CWA NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT IR/WV
SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN...THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AN INDICATION THAT
THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE EXISTED
ACROSS THAT REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS ARE FINALLY NOW BEING
REFLECTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING EL-NINO
EPISODES. TO THE NORTH...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS THAT ARE MARCHING
EASTWARD ARE NOW BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE MOISTURE/ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AS A 957MB LOW...IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH VERY WARM AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.

THE LATEST GFS AND EURO GLOBAL MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN EACH OTHER...AND THEIR PREVIOUS FEW
RUNS...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS FAR AS THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS CONCERNED. THEY BOTH TAKE A STORM
CENTER...THAT IS NOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
EAST OF JAPAN...STRAIGHT ESE-WARD ACROSS THE OCEAN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CA
COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ABLE TO PULL A RATHER RICH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER. IN FACT...THE LATEST
GFS PWAT FORECAST IS SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING BY NEXT
MONDAY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...WITH PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH
BEING FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SW AZ...WHICH IS AT
NEAR-RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS AND STRONG DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...THUS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INTO THE CHANCE-LIKELY RANGE...AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT. BEHIND THIS 1ST SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST
TWO MORE SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY STRONG JET PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC...PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF THE WIDELY
EXPECTED EL-NINO-INFLUENCED PRECIP SURGE ACROSS THE REGION.
309. vis0

Quoting 220. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm Rainfall Totals from last night from NWS San Diego. Central and Southern San Diego County received the most rain .20-.42 while points north got 0.00-0.20. I think Mexico might actually have received the most rain!

Sunshine Summit (My Location )............0.06
Harbison Canyon ( Most Rain ) 20 miles east of San Diego..........0.42

All the rest locations
Link
Ya know that hose that some leave ON  so the cheap plastic nozzle is whats holding the pressure and its drip drip dripping / leaking and the owner thinks, "Ah i'll repair it later..." then comes that day when that tiny leak / drip opens up and the yard i flooded.
Could it be that such a strong El Nino + aGW as even though they're adding max amounts of rain (not to mention warmth) towards Polar regions, Europe and Eastern USofA ...oh man almost forgot the first MAJOR USofA flooding was in NW USofA, i think Seattleite was typing while wearing scuba gear and mumbling "is that you Floyd?" ...

(even India had flooding a few weeks back when it should be leaning towards drying during an  El Nino)

...that ENSO-e  STILL has the force to drip drip drip.
Once the strong S. jet flow slides over towards East of The Appalachians  i think the RRR (western USofA) that i stated will thin into a very N to S form will cause the Pacific fire Hose to spray S. California & STILL cause spin up LOW from panhandle develope over Florida then up the coast...who was that wanted to move to Nova Scotia, they have been getting battered by all sorts of storms ALL SEASONS, Bostons Snow LOWs ended up there, TS end up there.
THE REST
OF THIS COMMENT IS at my zilly blog pg 5 cmmnt#246, i start THAT comment with part of the the last (run on) sentence of this comment. If one wants they'll find the blog, just like when one sees a cute animal VID on the news one will spend 15-30 mins searching for it so i figure if one wants to find my blog they search "vis0" on wunderground...they'll get 40 places of the world that are fogged in, plus a member named "vis0".

WEATHER:: zip 10016 NYc, i can still feel the polar air undercutting the Nino warmth, the polar air is very close to the ground.
Looks like an El Nino pattern may finally be settling in.

Quoting 305. barbamz:


Purple record heat signals from the arctic (Svalbard) and elsewhere (f.e. on the other side of the globe in South Africa) the last 24h. Source.

And India. And Alaska. Wow.
Quoting 306. NoobDave:


Donald Trump will be the next POTUS, I don t think you can do much to avoid this.
PAU and BAU are like two drunken idiots sharing an aged bottle of scotch, holding hands while walking downhill through the night, oblivious of the cliff ahead.
Quoting 310. tampabaymatt:

Looks like an El Nino pattern may finally be settling in.


yes hopefully our rain chances go up now.
Quoting 301. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Jan 4


Jan 7

That should change...very slowly tho...By mid January, things will speed up considerably, then slow down again..Crazy fricken weather coming.
316. MahFL
Quoting 306. NoobDave:


Donald Trump will be the next POTUS, I don t think you can do much to avoid this.


No he won't, even Republicans say they won't vote for him.
Quoting 313. guygee:

PAU and BAU are like two drunken idiots sharing an aged bottle of scotch, holding hands while walking downhill through the night, oblivious of the cliff ahead.
Politics reminds me of spilled garbage, it sours and wreaks while everybody argues what to do about it.
Quoting 316. MahFL:



No he won't, even Republicans say they won't vote for him.
It will likely be Cruz and Clinton when November rolls around.
Quoting 311. cRRKampen:


And India. And Alaska. Wow.

Australia is going to join the club soon (again):
Temperatures rise in lead up to the new year
December 30, 201510:31pm
BRACE yourself, it is going to be a scorching start to 2016.
New Year's Eve revellers should probably dunk themselves in an Esky full of ice rather than their beers.
South Australia is expected to ride out the rest of 2015 on a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures already in the mid-30s today.
Total fire bans have been declared in seven South Australian districts with the temperature set to climb to 38 degrees in Adelaide and remain for the next three days. ...


Finally some winter - in Turkey though:
Turkish Airlines cancels Istanbul flights as snow storms loom
Today / 09:51:26/ REUTERS / ISTANBUL
Turkish Airlines canceled 142 flights to and from Istanbul and warned of further disruption in coming days as the city braced on Wednesday for heavy snow.
Many of the cancelled flights were domestic, but routes to European and Middle Eastern airports including Hamburg, Munich, Milan and Tehran were also hit.
"The light snow that has been forecast around Istanbul on 30 December is expected to increase in severity on 31 December," a statement on the company's website read.
"For this reason, some journeys from Istanbul Ataturk and Sabiha Gokcen airports are cancelled and it is likely that there will be more weather-related problems on the same days."
Snowfall is expected to begin on Wednesday and continue until Jan. 2.

Quoting 284. Xyrus2000:



No. It'll take bigger ones, and you can be certain we'll get them. By then, we'll be flat broke, our infrastructure will be in tatters, and so will our economy. If the war machine doesn't suck us dry, then Wall Street and the 1% will. The bill for the drunken binge we've been on since WW2 will finally come due, and those most able to pay will have hopped on the nearest yacht and sailed into the sunset.

At least how things are looking now. :P
Thats why we need more good leaders here in the U.S. We could get the economy and infrastructure rebuild underway with smart minds who are in to better our country rather than get rich from it. Money is good, greed is bad...My 0ne and a half cents...I,m still researching the the remaining quarter..:)
Quoting 318. hydrus:

It will likely be Cruz and Clinton when November rolls around.


God help us all if that is the case. Technically my residence is Texas (so Cruz supposedly "represents" me - he doesn't) and I vote Republican more often than not, but Cruz is an embarrassment. If your prediction about the candidates is correct, this will be the first election since I was 18 (many, many moons ago) that I will not be going to the polls.
Quoting 317. hydrus:

Politics reminds me of spilled garbage, it sours and wreaks while everybody argues what to do about it.


I rather like arguing, actually, but then again I always have.

More amicably, I like debate, provided my opponent is actually willing to learn. And contrary to popular belief, minds are changed through that medium. Mine has changed many times since I was 17.
324. SuzK
Quoting 321. LouisPasteur:



God help us all if that is the case. Technically my residence is Texas (so Cruz supposedly "represents" me - he doesn't) and I vote Republican more often than not, but Cruz is an embarrassment. If your prediction about the candidates is correct, this will be the first election since I was 18 (many, many moons ago) that I will not be going to the polls.


And that will be why you are on a losing team. Make a difference. The best person may or may not win, whomever they are, but there is more to a polling box than two parties. May election day 2016 dawn bright and clear (wx related prognostication) with nary a cloud or raindrop in sight. Then, go vote.
Great we all know El Niño is causing this but why exactly? Whe can see the effects but what is the cause? What is it changing
There is so much going on weather wise. Also geologically the earth seems to be suddenly waking up & a notable solar storm is coming tonight. Try not and wreck the blog into politics and make a mess..


Unusual geological event in Vanuatu on December 30 2015 04:22 AM (UTC).
Disaster authorities in Vanuatu are closely monitoring unprecedented simultaneous increases in activity at three of the country's volcanoes. The Vanuatu Geohazards Department has put out level 2 alerts for both the northern and southern volcanoes of Ambrym and Tanna with local communities and tourists banned from visiting the rim of these craters. There is a lesser level 1 alert for a volcano on Ambae island. Geohazard officer Eslien Garaebiti says increased activity at all volcanoes has never been seen before and says the department is particularly worried about the Tanna and Ambrym craters. "They are under major level of unrest so they are the ones that are catching our attention at the moment for any increase of activity we would respond or in backing up our monitoring system for those volcanoes." Vanuatu's volcanoes are among the most accessible in the world and are a major attraction for the tourist industry.
Quoting 322. KoritheMan:



I rather like arguing, actually, but then again I always have.

More amicably, I like debate, provided my opponent is actually willing to learn. And contrary to popular belief, minds are changed through that medium. Mine has changed many times since I was 17.
Hello Kori..When arguing and debating is done with respect and honor, it is an invaluable contribution. When people start acting immature and commence attacks on one another, rather than debating the important subject matter, they are achieving nothing and some people get disgusted..Just my opinion..There may be folks that enjoy the mudslinging and excoriating remarks.
Quoting 326. Skyepony:

Unusual geological event in Vanuatu ...

Umm, Vanuatu? The islands devastated by Pam? And then hit by a servere drought, until recently? Very poor folks!

Edit: Stumbled across this news from Oceania as well:
Tuvalu recovering but could face new storm
Updated at 4:31 pm on 30 December 2015
As Tuvalu recovers from extensive damage caused by gale-force winds, national disaster managers are preparing for a possible cyclone.
All islands in the group were pounded on Monday and Tuesday by strong gusts of wind up to 100 kilometres per hour, with roofs blown off houses and many trees uprooted.
The national disaster co-ordinator, Sumeo Silu, says although there was no loss of life, almost 40 houses and 10 shops were damaged, some beyond repair. ...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
823 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GILMER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
WHITE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
DAWSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN BARTOW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
LUMPKIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
HALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BANKS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
PICKENS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EST

* AT 820 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON STREAMS
AND CREEKS DURING THE DAY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MARIETTA...GAINESVILLE...DOUGLASVILLE...CANTON...D ALLAS...
JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...CUMMING...DAHLONEGA...JASPE R...CLEVELAND...
DAWSONVILLE...HOMER...SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...SMYRNA...
KENNESAW...WOODSTOCK...ACWORTH AND SUGAR HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

IF YOU SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR WARNING AT
NWSATLANTA.

&&

330. vis0

Quoting 293. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Substandard Labor, Substandard Materials=Substandard Construction, but we don't want too much regulation? Makes for increased costs? Anyone surprised?
i would add substandard caring = a substandard society and in the end as ^HurricaneHunterJoe states it will cost more PERIOD.




Quoting 325. 19N81W:

Great we all know El Niño is causing this but why exactly? Whe can see the effects but what is the cause? What is it changing

Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Quoting 326. Skyepony:

There is so much going on weather wise. Also geologically the earth seems to be suddenly waking up & a notable solar storm is coming tonight. Try not and wreck the blog into politics and make a mess..


Unusual geological event in Vanuatu on December 30 2015 04:22 AM (UTC).
Disaster authorities in Vanuatu are closely monitoring unprecedented simultaneous increases in activity at three of the country's volcanoes. The Vanuatu Geohazards Department has put out level 2 alerts for both the northern and southern volcanoes of Ambrym and Tanna with local communities and tourists banned from visiting the rim of these craters. There is a lesser level 1 alert for a volcano on Ambae island. Geohazard officer Eslien Garaebiti says increased activity at all volcanoes has never been seen before and says the department is particularly worried about the Tanna and Ambrym craters. "They are under major level of unrest so they are the ones that are catching our attention at the moment for any increase of activity we would respond or in backing up our monitoring system for those volcanoes." Vanuatu's volcanoes are among the most accessible in the world and are a major attraction for the tourist industry.


So sad.. This is a place where the lights are being turned off by climate change.

" In 2006 the New Economics Foundation and Friends of the Earth environmentalist group published the Happy Planet Index which analysed data on levels of reported happiness, life expectancy and Ecological Footprint and estimated Vanuatu to be the most ecologically efficient country in the world in achieving high well-being." (from wiki)
Quoting 268. Skyepony:

A guy in Massachusetts got in a road rage incident with a snow truck plow driver. He had attempted to turn onto a road and nearly hit the plow. Then followed him to a parking lot and pulled out an unloaded gun. He was taken into custody after an onlooker called him in. The snow plow driver got arrested for assault.
The local news paints a slightly different picture. The driver of the Land Rover claims he was almost struck by the snowplow driver. He ended up in a parking lot, blocking the snowplow's exit. It's not clear who got out of their vehicle first, but it ended up in fisticuffs, with the Land Rover driver pulling an unloaded gun on the snowplow driver. When the police showed up, each driver said "He started it first!". Without a witness that can tell you the sequence of events, it's called mutual combat. Each participant would have been given a citation for assault and battery, and then they'd each have their chance to convince a judge they were the one that was right.

The Land Rover guy made things a lot worse on himself by pulling a handgun and threatening the snowplow driver. In most states, it doesn't matter if the gun is loaded or unloaded, it's still attack with a deadly weapon. It sounds like that's the case in Massachusetts as well, since Land Rover guy was arrested on that charge. That would be a felony in California, a lot more serious than a simple assault. That's why Land Rover guy was taken away in cuffs while the snowplow guy was just given a citation. Snowplow guy also got a citation for driving the plow with a suspended license, which you can be sure will be brought up in court against him. The moral of the story is, if someone else is yelling at you, don't make it worse. Lock yourself in the vehicle, call 911, and wait until the people who are paid to get in fights show up.
334. vis0

Quoting 318. hydrus:

It will likely be Cruz and Clinton when November rolls around.
SURPRISE?, George W. Bush w/ Obama as Vice President  ...SECURITY!!!!!!!!!!

aGW will be taken care of 'cause you cannot ban mentioning "a!, GW" on the house floor and Obama will win the bet, that is the white house lawn is flooded by a TS,  GW has to sign a strong anti Global Warming  bill.  where do i deposit my perforated "chads"?

(NOT from Wxu predictions)
zip 10016 Wx:: still feels mighty chilly yesterdays LOCAL predictions missed by 3 degrees F on the chilly side.
Today's 50 (by local stations) has just been updated to 47 to 49 F, was fooooogy now a bit higher low clouds

Oh gosh. I come back and what do I read..... political rubbish. I thought this was a weather blog.



This is interesting. TC Ula's spin about to get replaced?

Also, is that an eye???


TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 300507Z CORIOLIS 37
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE CDO, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, A 292057Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS CONFIRMS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 50 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. TC 06P
IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE,
ALTHOUGH LIMITED, IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER
SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET.
Quoting 327. hydrus:

Hello Kori..When arguing and debating is done with respect and honor, it is an invaluable contribution. When people start acting immature and commence attacks on one another, rather than debating the important subject matter, they are achieving nothing and some people get disgusted..Just my opinion..There may be folks that enjoy the mudslinging and excoriating remarks.


Mudslinging isn't really debating by definition. The latter kind of implies the mutual exchange of cohesive ideas.
338. vis0

Quoting 321. LouisPasteur:



God help us all if that is the case. Technically my residence is Texas (so Cruz supposedly "represents" me - he doesn't) and I vote Republican more often than not, but Cruz is an embarrassment. If your prediction about the candidates is correct, this will be the first election since I was 18 (many, many moons ago) that I will not be going to the polls.
If gawd could/would help us all, he or she or both would smack us on the back of our head so  that we go vote.

Enter a name like Mickey Mouse so when CNN & Fox put up poll numbers on Election Eve  , its 45% for Dem, 45% for Rep and Mickey got 10%, THEN the general public instead of saying i didn't vote cause "yadda yadda blah blah" the public will notice that if they vote for mickey when dissatisfied, there is a group of Dems & Reps have something in common, they are dissatisfied something to work on together instead of not voting and each group fantasizing how they could be better that whomever won by default [ "thé-fault" ]... of not voting.  Such a show of dissatisfied voter power might create a third party that scares the one size fits all unisex pants off the "Donkeefants" and clean up their act from the inside out or a third party candidate that has then has very active supporters from both Dems & Reps will win.

WEATHER:: Its changing so much even gawd MIGHT say wadda heck, (gawd is allowed to $%$%#$!, in any direction)
Lets all Observe weather and learn
re: #285... It's good to see you didn't suffer too long a power outage this past weekend.
Got half an inch of rain overnight, but nothing torrential. The incoming front is starting to crank up, however, with a forecast of 1 to 3 inches of rain in the next day or so. No rain would be better, but an inch over 24 hours we can probably handle. Three inches would be a big problem. Lake Martin, a big hydropower reservoir in central Alabama, is now just at the top of flood pool. Alabama Power, which operates the dam controlling the reservoir, has issued a statement saying they may need to open the gates and do an uncontrolled release if the rains worsen. That would dump a lot of water into the Tallapoosa River and downstream into the Alabama River. That would probably cause a major flood in places like Montgomery.

Lake Eufaula is at 188.49 feet now compared to flood pool of 190 feet. The forecast is for a crest of 194 feet, but this isn't based on a 3 inch rain over the Chattahoochee basin. The COE has been dumping water through the Walter F George Dam as fast as they can without causing major downstream flooding, but that's only brought the lake down about half a foot in the past 24 hours. If we get prolonged heavy rain, an uncontrolled release from that dam is also possible, with downstream flooding all the way to the Gulf. All we can do now is hope the rain isn't too terrible. It's times like this that remind me why I didn't buy lakefront property.
We are beginning to enter Alberta Clipper Season, with the Clippers really beginning to come in early-mid January, so time to start watching that as well.
342. vis0
oops, i rest my case
Quoting 330. vis0:


i would add substandard caring = a substandard society and in the end as ^HurricaneHunterJoe states it will cost more PERIOD.





This kind of thing happens when the checks and balances built into the system fail. What did the building code require? I don't know, but if the code allowed poor sill connections, that's the first failure. If the structures were built below code, the code inspector was incompetent, lazy, or corrupt. That's the second failure. A construction company that builds below code and can pay off inspectors is the third failure. It's a systemic failure that needs to be addressed. One of the ways to address this is to start locking up people in the failure loops.
Quoting 310. tampabaymatt:

Looks like an El Nino pattern may finally be settling in.




All the extended forecasts I saw said December would be warm for the SE and then January thru March would be cooler and wetter than normal, looks like they were right!
If we get prolonged heavy rain, an uncontrolled release from that dam is also possible, with downstream flooding all the way to the Gulf.

an uncontrolled release from that dam is also possible

That's a nice way to put it, I suppose.

Looking at the Texas (inferior construction) damage, wondering about things like levees...
Quoting 347. aquak9:

If we get prolonged heavy rain, an uncontrolled release from that dam is also possible, with downstream flooding all the way to the Gulf.

an uncontrolled release from that dam is also possible

That's a nice way to put it, I suppose.

Looking at the Texas (inferior construction) damage, wondering about things like levees...
Well, it's either that or I can start with wild arm flapping, something I try to avoid. :-)

My main worry with levees is not poor construction. Most Mississippi levees were well constructed. I worry about age and maintenance. A lot of levees were built in the 20's and 30's. If they were well maintained, even that isn't a major problem. They generally haven't been, as the Corp has spent money in other areas instead of maintenance. No levee is built to withstand repeated flood events without needing to have the below water structure maintained and regularly rebuilt. It's those parts we don't see that concern me. Still, the Mississippi levees are not bad compared to the ones on the Sacramento. Many of them weren't well built, and the state has been in rush mode trying to strengthen them since the 97-98 floods. The work isn't even close to complete, and there will be major floods there if we get the hose turned on over California.
Quoting 340. sar2401:

Got half an inch of rain overnight, but nothing torrential. The incoming front is starting to crank up, however, with a forecast of 1 to 3 inches of rain in the next day or so. No rain would be better, but an inch over 24 hours we can probably handle. Three inches would be a big problem. Lake Martin, a big hydropower reservoir in central Alabama, is now just at the top of flood pool. Alabama Power, which operates the dam controlling the reservoir, has issued a statement saying they may need to open the gates and do an uncontrolled release if the rains worsen. That would dump a lot of water into the Tallapoosa River and downstream into the Alabama River. That would probably cause a major flood in places like Montgomery.

Lake Eufaula is at 188.49 feet now compared to flood pool of 190 feet. The forecast is for a crest of 194 feet, but this isn't based on a 3 inch rain over the Chattahoochee basin. The COE has been dumping water through the Walter F George Dam as fast as they can without causing major downstream flooding, but that's only brought the lake down about half a foot in the past 24 hours. If we get prolonged heavy rain, an uncontrolled release from that dam is also possible, with downstream flooding all the way to the Gulf. All we can do now is hope the rain isn't too terrible. It's times like this that remind me why I didn't buy lakefront property.


It has been over a week of daily flood warnings here in northern Georgia and SE Tennessee. I have never seen flood warnings last in such duration of time. Before the crest of most tributaries happen another round of rain arrives. There are many Areal flood warnings posted which means flooding applies to longer duration precipitation, (greater than six hours), causing slow rises on rivers and streams. The main concern for many is this same pattern of moisture continues for many here in the south. We need weeks if not months of a changing moisture pattern to shift south or somewhere else. This prolonged moisture feed that stalls for days if not weeks has been going on for years now as other areas are dry. To see the sun anymore here is a rare occurrence.
A lot of levees were built in the 20's and 30's.

It's those parts we don't see that concern me.


Agreed. Also, my fuss with thebes, cairo, new madrid? the weight of the water, not just the levees.
There's a nasty old fault line near/through that area.

Repeated stressors.

It's those parts we don't see that concern me.
Alabama Power has opened two of the four main release gates on Lake Martin Dam. The Tallapoosa and Alabama Rivers below the dam are at about five feet below major flood stage. The additional flow from Lake Martin will add about two feet. All four main gates will add about four feet. This doesn't include the effects of more rain over the next 24 hours, which will prolong the release period. If you're in a floodplain below Lake Martin, you should be making sure your plans are in place for flooding.
Quoting 310. tampabaymatt:

Looks like an El Nino pattern may finally be settling in.




Hopefully the storm tracks favor the Sierra a bit more. I love the rain here, but the state water supply is much more important.
Quoting 323. NoobDave:

Donald Trump is a sure win, he s the most popular candidate and he s not backed by anyone and promises to make America great again, does anyone truly believe that Clinton can defeat Trump? Trump is almost three times more popular than Cruz, so Trump is the best bet.


I sure hope that Trump doesn't win. He's a Grump.
Back at 31 again today in S C IL, press up a little more & light W winds as high slides by to S, still overcast, but supposed to break. Standing water has really soaked in well in my area, but people along Sangamon & its S Fork, Illinois, Kaskaskia rivers (& all tributaries feeding them) are fighting rising waters, closed roads, etc. Two more people drowned in a branch of a creek that runs by my old homestead we left around 40 yrs ago, found them but not the vehicle they were in.

To my S in MO, I-44 closed for 20 (Edit: now 24 - extended to I-270) miles around area where sewer plant went under water yesterday. Nearby plant in Valley Park sandbagged but threatened as Meremac beats its '82 record by 3'. New levee was built to 44', but floodgates at 43' & that's expected peak, so some residents being evacuated jic. (Lots of development in S County since '82 as well) Some lower levels of Menard Correctional starting to flood & access road is flooded. Some prisoners were evacuated. Meremac should peak tomorrow, MS at Chester Friday. Dropped peak at StL a few more tenths, it should peak tomorrow as well. More at stltoday.com if interested. Can't rem if Sherwood Spirit is in that area, I think she's further N & W though.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1017 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST WEDNESDAY

* AT 1015 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA DUE TO A LEVEE BREACH ON THE EMBARRAS RIVER
ALONG THE JASPER CRAWFORD COUNTY LINE. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STE. MARIE AND SURROUNDING RURAL ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 8806 3896 8806 3895 8786 3885 8786
3885 8791 3882 8791
Quoting 326. Skyepony:>
Unusual geological event in Vanuatu on December 30 2015 04:22 AM (UTC).
Disaster authorities in Vanuatu are closely monitoring unprecedented simultaneous increases in activity at three of the country's volcanoes. The Vanuatu Geohazards Department has put out level 2 alerts for both the northern and southern volcanoes of Ambrym and Tanna with local communities and tourists banned from visiting the rim of these craters. There is a lesser level 1 alert for a volcano on Ambae island. Geohazard officer Eslien Garaebiti says increased activity at all volcanoes has never been seen before and says the department is particularly worried about the Tanna and Ambrym craters...


One of the largest volcanic eruptions thought to have impacted climate appears to have occurred at Kuwae in Vanuatu in about 1452-3. The climate impacts of that eruption are claimed to have been major on a global scale. There remain many questions regarding the Kuwae event, as described HERE.

We can only hold our breath, hoping that this situation doesn't result in another of those rare, very large eruptions, since human population is now much greater than it was when Kuwae or Tambora blew up. The potential for major global crop failures could well threaten the collapse of civilizations due to famine and conflict. Sort of like Syria, only global...
Surprised that area is under Lincoln, not Evansville 620, guess just far enough N. After posting thought I should have thrown Little Wabash, Embarras, & Vermillion in there too. How's the Big Muddy doing? Might have a few Monster sightings if push them out of the bottoms ;)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The Mid Atlantic heat over Christmas has severely damaged my broccoli. Quality went from excellent to fair in just a week. This is partly because I they are in the shade on the north side of my house making them vulnerable to the combination of low light and high warmth. Shade is normally good for winter greens because it reduces freeze/thaw cycles and the intensity of those cycles. But at 70F with 9 hour days and thick clouds during the day, respiration exceeds photosynthesis and the plants decline.

Expecting near normal winter conditions late this week and some modest warmth next week so plants should recover quality. But heat damage to my veggies in DECEMBER is remarkable. Meanwhile on the outside exposed porch I'm picking the last few cherry tomatoes and they are good.. near summer quality.
Quoting 308. Mediarologist:

Quoting 306. NoobDave:

Sure thing, buddy. Did you cast the i-ching or something?

Well, for you SoCal peeps.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
338 AM PST WED DEC 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAJOR SHIFT IN OUR PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW PARKED
OVER NEVADA WILL HELP TO SET UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
PAC NW THIS WEEKEND...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT TO TRACK THIS SERIES OF TROUGHS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG...BETWEEN ABOUT 30 TO 40 DEGREES LATITUDE.
BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPS THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FIRST
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A WET PATTERN FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC FROM EASTERN ASIA. THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS MAY HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO TAP THE ABNORMALLY WARM
TROPICAL PACIFIC.

FOR NOW WE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...SUCH AS THE
STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME...AFFECTING EACH PERIODS FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NW AND HELP BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER...WITH SOME COOLER AIR COMBINING TO
BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FORECAST TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
MESSAGE FOR NOW IS THAT OF AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF
BRINGING THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET INTO THE REGION WITH A PARADE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS RIDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK.

So, are you happy now? Never heard so much whining as in the past few days from you guys..

Here's a great discussion out of Phoenix, a little closer to my locale:

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW FAR
INTO THE FUTURE IT STILL IS...THAT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS
ON THE WAY FOR OUR CWA NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT IR/WV
SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN...THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AN INDICATION THAT
THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE EXISTED
ACROSS THAT REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS ARE FINALLY NOW BEING
REFLECTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING EL-NINO
EPISODES. TO THE NORTH...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS THAT ARE MARCHING
EASTWARD ARE NOW BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE MOISTURE/ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AS A 957MB LOW...IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH VERY WARM AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.

THE LATEST GFS AND EURO GLOBAL MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN EACH OTHER...AND THEIR PREVIOUS FEW
RUNS...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS FAR AS THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS CONCERNED. THEY BOTH TAKE A STORM
CENTER...THAT IS NOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
EAST OF JAPAN...STRAIGHT ESE-WARD ACROSS THE OCEAN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CA
COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ABLE TO PULL A RATHER RICH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER. IN FACT...THE LATEST
GFS PWAT FORECAST IS SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING BY NEXT
MONDAY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...WITH PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH
BEING FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SW AZ...WHICH IS AT
NEAR-RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS AND STRONG DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...THUS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INTO THE CHANCE-LIKELY RANGE...AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT. BEHIND THIS 1ST SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST
TWO MORE SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY STRONG JET PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC...PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF THE WIDELY
EXPECTED EL-NINO-INFLUENCED PRECIP SURGE ACROSS THE REGION.



Not holding my breath or betting the house but.............................. :)
didnt think anyone could answer it