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Punishing Four-Season Storm Grips U.S. during the Holiday Week, Killing Over 40

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 3:24 AM GMT on December 28, 2015

An incredible variety of weather hazards made their presence felt over Christmas weekend across the central U.S., from blizzard to tornado to freezing rain to flash flooding and river floods. More than 40 weather-related deaths have been reported since Wednesday. The multi-day storminess is related to a gradual realignment of the large-scale pattern over North America. A stunningly warm, moist air mass across the eastern and southern U.S.--by some measures the most tropical on record for early winter--is in the process of being displaced by a strong upper-level storm across the West, bringing much more seasonable cold. There’s been so much remarkable weather over the weekend that it’s difficult to summarize in a single blog post, but here are some highlights.


Figure 1. Damage from the tornado that struck Rowlett, Texas, on Saturday evening, December 26, 2015. The tornado was rated at least EF3. Image credit: NWS/Fort Worth.

Deadly tornadoes strike near Dallas on Saturday
Ahead of a strong cold front in west Texas, supercell thunderstorms that ripped across the sprawling eastern part of the Dallas area spawned several tornadoes that killed 11 people. One violent tornado that killed eight people in Garland was rated EF4, while “at least EF3” damage was found in Rowlett, just east of Garland. Two people died in Copeland, about 15 miles to the northeast, where EF2 damage was documented. According to the Dallas Morning News, as many as 1000 structures were damaged across north Texas, many of them severely. The storms were fed by a very strong upper-level jet as well as unusually high instability for December (around 3000 joules per kilogram, which would be concerning in springtime, much less wintertime). Temperatures reached 80°F in Dallas just hours before the tornadic supercell arrived, with a summerlike dew point of 67°F.

The widespread persistence of warm, humid conditions over the last few days has led to a unprecedented U.S. stretch of severe weather for December, including tornadoes from Mississippi to Michigan on Wednesday. Sunday was the seventh day in a row with at least one U.S. tornado reported--the first such week-long stretch for any December in NOAA Storm Prediction Center records dating back to 1950, as noted by WU contributor Dr. Phil Klotzbach. The previous record string of six days, December 22-27, 1982, occurred during the “super El Niño” of 1982-83. Another tragic milestone: 2015 is the first year in records going back to 1875 that has seen more confirmed tornado-related deaths in December than in the rest of the year combined. The only other year with December having more deaths than any other single month was 1931, according to statistics analyzed by Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory).


Figure 2. From Ropesville, TX, about 20 miles southwest of Lubbock, on Sunday, December 27, 2015: “Blizzard conditions hit this area last night with 50 - 60 mph winds and they haven't let up. These mailboxes have taken a nice beating over the last 15 or so hours.” Image credit: wunderphotographer docshovel39.

Blizzard pummels southern High Plains
As severe storms continued to rumble across east Texas on Sunday, the western part of the state was dealing with a crippling blizzard that extended into eastern New Mexico, while freezing rain knocked out power to tens of thousands of western Oklahomans. Exceptionally strong winds--gusting above 70 mph in some areas--have led to near-zero visibilities and drifts of 6 feet or more, paralyzing travel across the region. Roswell, NM, had racked up 12,3” for the day by 8 pm CST Sunday, topping its one-day record of 11.5”; the two-day total of 15.5" was approaching Roswell's two-day record of 16.9”. Lubbock, TX, picked up 2.7” between 6 and 7 pm CST Sunday, pushing its storm total to 9.2”. The city’s heaviest-on-record storm total of 16.9” was picked up on January 20-21 during (you guessed it) the super El Niño of 1982-83. As the upper-level storm and associated low head northeastward on Monday, more snow and ice will plaster a swath extending from Kansas to Wisconsin and Michigan.

Massive flooding hits Missouri and Illinois, killing 13
Only days after major flooding across central and northern Alabama late last week, the weekend storm brought incredibly heavy rains to eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri, with 10.0" falling in a 30-hour period ending Sunday evening on the south side of Springfield, Missouri. On Sunday, Governor Jay Nixon declared a state of emergency in Missouri due to heavy flooding all across the state, and urged Missourians in flood-affected areas to not drive into flooded roadways and avoid travel if possible. Eight people died Saturday night in Missouri in floods; six of the deaths occurred in two separate incidents where cars drove into flooded roadways in Pulaski County and were swept away by water. In southern Illinois, three adults and two children drowned Saturday evening when their car was swept away and sank in a rain-swollen creek. An additional 1 - 2" of rain is expected over most of Missouri and Arkansas by Monday evening, but dry weather is mercifully expected the rest of the week. The 4.87” of rain in St. Louis on Saturday made it the third wettest calendar day in records going back to 1874. More rain on Sunday pushed the city to its wettest year on record, beating 57.96” in 2008.


Figure 3. Observed precipitation amounts for the 48-hour period ending on Sunday, December 27, 2015, at 8 pm EST. Rainfall amount of 6"+ were widespread across eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri, with some areas seeing 10"+. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Historic flood imminent on the Mississippi River
The Mississippi River near St. Louis was near flood stage late last week due to excessive rains of 2 - 4" (400 - 600% of average) that fell during the past two weeks farther upstream in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. A massive pulse of flood waters from this weekend's epic December rains will pile into the Mississippi River over the next few days, bringing the river to flood levels never recorded this time of year. The Mississippi River at St. Louis was approaching moderate flood state on Sunday evening, and is forecast to crest on Wednesday at the second highest level ever observed, just five feet below the all-time record set during the disastrous flood of 1993. Flood records at this location extend back to 1785. It’s worth noting that, of the top 40 Mississippi River flood crests in St. Louis history, only one has occurred in a winter month (Dec-Feb). That was the #9-ranked crest of 39.27”, recorded (when else?) on December 7 during the super El Niño of 1982-83.

Downstream from St. Louis, the Mississippi River is forecast to crest late this week in Chester and Cape Girardeau, Missouri above the all-time record 1993 flood; NOAA warns that at the flood levels expected, the Degognia and Fountain Bluff Levees will be overtopped. NOAA projects that the massive flood crest will propagate downstream to the Gulf of Mexico next week, bringing flood heights that are expected to be between the 2nd highest and 4th highest on record all the way to Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

On January 20, the Mississippi flood crest is expected to arrive in New Orleans, bringing the river to its 17-foot flood stage in the city, just 3 feet below the tops of the levees. In past years, though, when the river has been forecast to rise to 17 feet in the city, the Army Corps of Engineers has opened up the Bonnet Carre Spillway in St. Charles Parish, which diverts water into Lake Pontchartrain and keeps the river from reaching flood stage in New Orleans. According to a December 25 article by Mark Schleifstein of NOLA.com, this option will be discussed on Monday at an Army Corps flood "flood fight" meeting, along with the less likely possibility of opening the Morganza Floodway in Pointe Coupee Parish, which would divert water down the Atchafalaya River. Opening this spillway has a considerably higher cost than opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway, due to the large amount of agricultural lands that would be flooded below the Morganza Spillway. The Corps also has the option of increasing the flow of Mississippi River water into the Atchafalaya at the Old River Control Structure in Concordia Parish. Operating the Old River Control Structure in this way always makes me nervous, as I explained in my 2011 blog post, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure. Both the Bonnet Carre Spillway and Morganza Floodway were forced to open in May 2011, due to the highest flood crests ever observed on the Lower Mississippi. This flood cost over $2 billion; I expect the damage from the December 2015 - January 2016 Mississippi River flood will run into the hundreds of millions.


Figure 4. The Mississippi River at St. Louis was approaching moderate flood state on Sunday evening, and is forecast to crest on Wednesday at the second highest level ever observed, just five feet below the all-time record set during the disastrous flood of 1993. Flood records at this location extend back to 1785. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The Big Christmas Warm
Hundreds of records were buried by sunshine, warmth, and humidity instead of white-Christmas snowfall all across the eastern U.S. during the holidays, especially on Thursday and Friday. Christmas Day was the apex for the north-south breadth of warmth, with record highs set from Florida (82°F in Jacksonville) to Maine (62°F in Portland). Many records on Thursday and Friday were smashed by margins of 10°F or more. The Christmas Eve readings of 72°F at Albany, NY, and 68°F at Burlington, VT, both set all-time records for December. As noted by WU weather historian Chris Burt, these are truly impressive records given the late date in a month that gets progressively colder, not to mention the long periods of record at both sites (since 1883 in Burlington and 1874 in Albany). Chris adds that Philadelphia has seen eight days this month through Sunday with record daily highs: “Not since records began in Philadelphia back in 1874 has any other month of any single year experienced as many daily record highs as this December!” The capital of Christmas commerce, New York City, basked in record warmth of 72°F on Thursday and 66°F on Friday. As of Sunday, Central Park had yet to get below 32°F this fall or winter; its monthly average (12/1 – 12/26) of 52.0°F was running at an astonishing 13.8°F above normal and 7.9°F above the previous December record, going back to 1871. A cooldown this week will reduce that value, but a warmest-on-record December is all but certain for much of the eastern U.S. It’s no wonder that flowers and shrubs are blossoming from Washington to New York.

At this writing, NOAA’s U.S. Records site had not yet been updated with the many records after Dec. 24, but for the period 12/1 – 12/24, December saw a phenomenal 3164 daily record highs and 4511 record warm lows, compared to 147 record cold highs and 147 record lows. Despite the intense cold in the eastern U.S. early in 2015, this year will end up with more than twice as many U.S. daily record highs as lows, just one more statistic for a year that is wrapping up in remarkable fashion.

Bob Henson (tornadoes, blizzard, record warmth) and Jeff Masters (flooding)


Figure 5. With the lower Manhattan skyline in the background, Meg Roebling runs through Brooklyn Bridge Park in New York on a record-warm Christmas Eve, Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015. Image credit: AP Photo/Kathy Willens.

Extreme Weather Blizzard Flood Torn Tornado Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the Updates,
"There's been so much remarkable weather over the weekend that it's difficult to summarize in a single blog post, but here are some highlights."

Thanks, Doc M and Mr H. I think ya'll did a pretty good job.
:)

Wow .... the flood deaths are particularly notable to me .... I wonder whether low visibility had to do with these pple ending up in the flood waters? I've heard too many "turn around don't drown" type messages to believe they just drove into the creeks willy-nilly ....

Thanks for the late night update; it's been an eventful few days weatherwise..... and that's not including the UK floods ....
Thanks for the update Dr Masters and Mr Henson! Sad that so many killed and injured. Prayers go out for all their families and friends.
Quoting 4. BahaHurican:

Wow .... the flood deaths are particularly notable to me .... I wonder whether low visibility had to do with these pple ending up in the flood waters? I've heard too many "turn around don't drown" type messages to believe they just drove into the creeks willy-nilly ....

Thanks for the late night update; it's been an eventful few days weatherwise..... and that's not including the UK floods ....


So true Baha, I will never understand why so many try and do it. I mean we all have seen it so many times on the news one would figure folks would quit trying.
Quoting 6. HurricaneHunterJoe:



So true Baha, I will never understand why so many try and do it. I mean we all have seen it so many times on the news one would figure folks would quit trying.

So many underestimate the power of water and overestimate the capabilities of their vehicles.
Quoting 1. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the Updates,




Your timing is IMPECCABLE Mr Pedley!
Quoting 7. Abacosurf:


So many underestimate the power of water and overestimate the capabilities of their vehicles.



Yes, but after seeing so many disastrous results.........why try?
Quoting 8. HurricaneHunterJoe:




Your timing is IMPECCABLE Mr Pedley!


Jet forecast to undercut the Rex Block ridge in Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia, allowing the jet stream to head into California. Will not count my chickens before they hatch and thus will keep an eye on models to see if they continue to agree on that forecast. Models have a storm off the California coast Jan 4-5 much stronger than models forecast a few runs ago. Hurry up and wait!.....LOL
I live in Northwest Arkansas, and the rain is incredible. Have seen many amazing weather events, but they come more and more often now. Nothing but extremes.

Here is a little side note. White River near Fayetteville Arkansas is currently nearly 4' above all time record level.

Link
I have a friend who will be at Urbana, a Christian conference in St. Louis, this week. I better tell him about the floods.
It is chilling to me to think that this El Nino may mirror 1982-83 in a number of ways, because I remember vividly an ice storm in February in Alabama when we lost power for a week or more. We put the contents of the refrigerator into coolers on the porch. Luckily, we had a Grandma Bear iron woodstove for heat and cooking, but we couldn't go anywhere. I am waiting with "bated breath" to see how January through March play out in the new year. Were you in Alabama at that time, SAR?
Quoting 9. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yes, but after seeing so many disastrous results.........why try?
That's why I was thinking they must not have been able to see where they were. If you see a vast expanse of water where there's normally only a trickle, you prolly would think twice. If you couldn't see the water, you might not even realize you'd come to a flooded area before you got into it.

Sometimes being the stoic one who endures and keeps going through every adverse circumstance can be a bad thing. .... :o/

G'nite, folks .... here's hoping the worst of it's over, and especially that there are no further fatalities connected with this storm ....
Greetings from Houston, where this afternoon it went from summer to winter in about 10 minutes as the front passed through. Probably the most dramatic change in weather I've seen here in many years. Had the a/c on all past week and 20 minutes after the front passed we had to turn the heat on.
Could also be looking at an unusual ice storm for Chicago tomorrow
Hey guys what's up.
Quoting 4. BahaHurican:

Wow .... the flood deaths are particularly notable to me .... I wonder whether low visibility had to do with these pple ending up in the flood waters? I've heard too many "turn around don't drown" type messages to believe they just drove into the creeks willy-nilly ....

Thanks for the late night update; it's been an eventful few days weatherwise..... and that's not including the UK floods ....


The one set of deaths occurred at a low water crossing...there's one of those in my neighborhood. There's a turn around, don't drown sign on both sides of the low water crossing, and a catchment fence to catch anyone dumb enough to try. During heavy rains, I like to see how high the water gets.

One time they tried to pave the bridge...the water stripped it off in the next rain.
Your link fixed.
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo =tsa&gage=fyga4&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&refresh=true


Quoting 11. ArkWeather:

I live in Northwest Arkansas, and the rain is incredible. Have seen many amazing weather events, but they come more and more often now. Nothing but extremes.

Here is a little side note. White River near Fayetteville Arkansas is currently nearly 4' above all time record level.

Link
Quoting 20. Andrebrooks:

Hey guys what's up.


Sup Andre!
Quoting 15. Alagirl:

It is chilling to me to think that this El Nino may mirror 1982-83 in a number of ways, because I remember vividly an ice storm in February in Alabama when we lost power for a week or more. We put the contents of the refrigerator into coolers on the porch. Luckily, we had a Grandma Bear iron woodstove for heat and cooking, but we couldn't go anywhere. I am waiting with "bated breath" to see how January through March play out in the new year. Were you in Alabama at that time, SAR?


I live in Grand Rapids, MI and we're under a winter storm warning for accumulations of a quarter to a half inch of freezing rain from 10 am today to 6am Tuesday, with winds of 30-40 mph and possible higher gusts. Already salted the driveway but worried about our trees (huge silver maples, which are soft-woods) and about power in general. Might pick up a generator this morning before it begins. Can always return it if we don't use it. Work 2nd shift (3-11) but they might close. That's going to be the worst period, according to forecasts.

My real question, though, is this: how much ice needs to accumulate before significant damage to trees and and the power infrastructure starts to occur? Thanks!
Quoting 13. Gearsts:




I'll take "El Nino rains" for $1000, Alex.
What is forecast should about do it. 1/2" of freezing rain is enough to do extensive damage depending on the coverage area!

Quoting 24. Scotchtape:



I live in Grand Rapids, MI and we're under a winter storm warning for accumulations of a quarter to a half inch of freezing rain from 10 am today to 6am Tuesday, with winds of 30-40 mph and possible higher gusts. Already salted the driveway but worried about our trees (huge silver maples, which are soft-woods) and about power in general. Might pick up a generator this morning before it begins. Can always return it if we don't use it. Work 2nd shift (3-11) but they might close. That's going to be the worst period, according to forecasts.

My real question, though, is this: how much ice needs to accumulate before significant damage to trees and and the power infrastructure starts to occur? Thanks!
Quoting 26. swflurker:

What is forecast should about do it. 1/2" of freezing rain is enough to do extensive damage depending on the coverage area!



At ground level[edit]
Freezing rain often causes major power outages by forming glaze ice. When the freezing rain or drizzle is light and not prolonged, the ice formed is thin. It usually causes only minor damage, relieving trees of their dead branches etc.[5] When large quantities accumulate, however, it is one of the most dangerous types of winter hazard.[6] When the ice layer exceeds approximately 0.25 inches (6.4 mm)[citation needed], tree limbs with branches heavily coated in ice can break off under the enormous weight and fall onto power lines. Windy conditions, when present, will exacerbate the damage. Power lines coated with ice become extremely heavy, causing support poles, insulators and lines to break. The ice that forms on roadways makes vehicle travel dangerous. Unlike snow, wet ice provides almost no traction, and vehicles will slide even on gentle slopes. Because freezing rain does not hit the ground as an ice pellet (called "sleet") but still as a rain droplet, it conforms to the shape of the ground, or object such as a tree branch or car. This makes one thick layer of ice, often called "glaze".


Thick layer of glaze broke the trees in downtown Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Freezing rain and glaze on a large scale is called an ice storm. Effects on plants can be severe, as they cannot support the weight of the ice. Trees may snap as they are dormant and fragile during winter weather. Pine trees are also victims of ice storms as their needles will catch the ice, but not be able to support the weight. In February 1994, a severe ice storm caused over $1 billion in damage in the Southern United States, primarily in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama. One particularly severe ice storm struck eastern Canada and northern parts of New York and New England in the North American ice storm of 1998.[7]



Quoting 20. Andrebrooks:

Hey guys what's up.


Sprawling weather system across the country. Check out the active warnings
Quoting 675. JohnLonergan:

Something for the astronomers

Sou posted these two images of the large Large Magellanic Cloud taken bt a regular commenter;





Mosaic 43MB



Zoom with annotation



Click to embiggen


Awesome pictures.

Embiggen? LMAO. :)
Quoting 24. Scotchtape:



I live in Grand Rapids, MI and we're under a winter storm warning for accumulations of a quarter to a half inch of freezing rain from 10 am today to 6am Tuesday, with winds of 30-40 mph and possible higher gusts. Already salted the driveway but worried about our trees (huge silver maples, which are soft-woods) and about power in general. Might pick up a generator this morning before it begins. Can always return it if we don't use it. Work 2nd shift (3-11) but they might close. That's going to be the worst period, according to forecasts.

My real question, though, is this: how much ice needs to accumulate before significant damage to trees and and the power infrastructure starts to occur? Thanks!


Not an expert, but some NWS offices use this index (or at least mine used it once).

Sperry-Piltz

Forecast for NE and MI
Thanks, Bob and Jeff. It's not often there's a blog that includes floods, blizzards, tornadoes, and record warmth covering half the country. It's even more rare to have all of them occur during Christmas week. Except for West Coast floods, I don't know how much more could happen at one time in late December. A small correction though. Except for the Tennessee River, which happens to cut through the north half of Alabama, none of our other rivers will be contributing to flood waters in the Mississippi. All the major rivers (Alabama, Chattahoochee, Tombigbee, and Black Warrior) drain directly to the Gulf. The rains have caused enough trouble here, with all the rivers being at or above flood stage, and causing residential flooding in a number of locations.
Quoting 15. Alagirl:

It is chilling to me to think that this El Nino may mirror 1982-83 in a number of ways, because I remember vividly an ice storm in February in Alabama when we lost power for a week or more. We put the contents of the refrigerator into coolers on the porch. Luckily, we had a Grandma Bear iron woodstove for heat and cooking, but we couldn't go anywhere. I am waiting with "bated breath" to see how January through March play out in the new year. Were you in Alabama at that time, SAR?
No, I was fighting the California floods while you were firing up the Grandma Bear. We had a small ice storm in 2009, but I only lost power for about eighteen hours. As I recall, it was only right at or a little below freezing and, although it was chilly, it didn't seem that bad to me. The big difference in 1982 was how cold it was both before and after the ice storm. It's not usually very cold before an ice storm, and it normally warms up to at least the 40's within a day. 1982 was different, with temperatures near zero for most of the state before the storm, and then snow and not getting above freezing for four or five days after the ice. It's the combination of all those that made it so hard to get power restored, although nothing beats the 1993 Superstorm in total outages in Alabama. There's sure nothing in the foreseeable future that will lead to those kinds of conditions again here. I just hope we get through today without another torrential rainstorm.
Quoting 32. sar2401:

No, I was fighting the California floods while you were firing up the Grandma Bear. We had a small ice storm in 2009, and I only lost power for about eighteen hours. As I recall, it was only right at or a little below freezing and, although it was chilly, it didn't seem that bad to me. The big difference in 1982 was how cold it was both before and after the ice storm. It's not usually very cold before an ice storm, and it normally warms up to at least the 40's within a day. 1982 was different, with temperatures near zero for most of the state before the storm, and then snow and not getting above freezing for four or five days after the ice. It's the combination of all those that made it so hard to get power restored, although nothing beats the 1993 Superstorm in total outages in Alabama. There's sure nothing in the foreseeable future that will lead to those kinds of conditions again here. I just hope we get through today without another torrential rainstorm.


You should google the February 1994 ice storm. Memphis, Nashville, Jackson MS, massive area of the midsouth absolutely crippled. The county next door to Nashville lost critical electrical systems and some people didn't get power back for a whole month.

Amazingly, Mom said that the house the family was in (I wouldn't be born for two years) didn't lose power. A lady who was renting asked Mom about the light show/sounds (she thought it was a thunderstorm), saying "I've never seen/heard so much before."

Mom's response: "That's not thunder, those are transformers failing and trees breaking".

Winter storm watch in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Winter storm Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A low from Texas will spread snow, ice pellets, and blowing snow into the regions Monday evening. Snow and ice pellet amounts of 10 to 15 cms are expected before precipitation changes to freezing rain before morning. Freezing rain will quickly change to rain or drizzle near Lake Ontario near the morning rush hour Tuesday, but could persist well into the day further north.

Strong easterly winds gusting to 70 km/h are expected Monday evening and Monday night with gusts to 80 km/h possible near Lake Ontario.

Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate Monday evening as visibilities drop to near zero and roads become covered in snow or ice pellets. Conditions will begin to improve Tuesday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 27. swflurker:



Thank you!
Quoting 31. sar2401:

Thanks, Bob and Jeff. It's not often there's a blog that includes floods, blizzards, tornadoes, and record warmth covering half the country. It's even more rare to have all of them occur during Christmas week. Except for West Coast floods, I don't know how much more could happen at one time in late December. A small correction though. Except for the Tennessee River, which happens to cut through the north half of Alabama, none of our other rivers will be contributing to flood waters in the Mississippi. All the major rivers (Alabama, Chattahoochee, Tombigbee, and Black Warrior) drain directly to the Gulf. The rains have caused enough trouble here, with all the rivers being at or above flood stage, and causing residential flooding in a number of locations.


Thanks very much, sar! It looks like a good bit of rain did fall in the Tennessee River watershed, along with the Gulf-draining amounts further south (plenty to go around, as it were). Since I'm no expert on how much water is flowing where, I went ahead and split off the Alabama flood reference from the Mississippi section. No question that the amount of rain that's fallen east of the Rockies over the last few days is phenomenal.
Quoting 30. Astrometeor:



Not an expert, but some NWS offices use this index (or at least mine used it once).

Sperry-Piltz

Forecast for NE and MI

Thank you! That's a really good resource! Looks like we're in the 2 (orange) category, possibly 3 (red). So, it could be pretty bad but not the 2-6 inch hellstorm I saw mentioned. Remember losing power for almost a week from an ice/extremely wet snow event in 1997. It hit in October, while all the leaves were still on the trees. Terrible but beautiful. So many tree branches down or stretched to the ground. Like an enchanted fairy land. Almost got hypothermia sleeping on my waterbed without any power. Then, the next spring we had the derecho. 130 mph winds. The trees are still recovering.
El Ni No in SoCal!
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 225 AM UNTIL 800 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN AR
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN LA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

Good Morning Class!

This from the NWS San Diego tonight. Hope this pattern evolves and the Pacific jet stream gets aimed at different parts of California the next 3-4 months. For a perfect setup, let's go with Northern California, Central California and Southern California each getting the jet for a week at a time and rotate it to reduce major flooding problems. Anyway here is the forecast..........hope it happens!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
933 PM PST SUN DEC 27 2015

...CORRECTED TO ADD UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.EVENING UPDATE...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
DESERTS AS A RESULT. OTHER LOCATIONS LOOK ON TARGET...WITH FROST
ADVISORIES CONTINUING IN EFFECT FOR THE VALLEYS AND LOWER DESERTS
FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WILL APPROACH OUR REGION TOWARDS
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING A RENEWED BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH
WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS STILL LOOK
LIKELY FOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AS THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT
WILL ADD A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
IN ADDITION...WE MAY NEED TO ADD A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY EVENING TO PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INSTABILITY AND LOW TOPPED T-STORM POTENTIAL. WILL BRIEF THE
MIDNIGHT CREW ON THIS SITUATION. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE MONDAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK OUT LATE
IN THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL END BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. QUITE COOL WITH SOME FROST AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND
DESERTS. PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. DRY AND SEASONAL THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A WETTER
PATTERN MAY EMERGE NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS UNDER THE RIDGE.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 120 PM PST)...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING FROM THE NE...BUT WERE
STILL OFFSHORE AROUND 4 MBS FROM NV...AND 1-2 MBS OFFSHORE FROM
THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS HAS MAINTAINED LOCAL EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH ON THE SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS AT
MIDDAY...BUT WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE RISING
THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S AT 1 PM PST.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND
LOWER DESERTS WHERE LITTLE WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY. PROVIDED THE HIGHER CLOUDS REMAIN
THIN...AREAS ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO...OR BELOW THE FREEZING
POINT OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING OVER SOCAL TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATE MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS HAVE FORMED...AND GRADUALLY SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RETURN OF
SOME MOISTURE. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INTO SOCAL MON EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND AN ABRUPT SFC WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NW.

THE SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO THE TROUGH ON CHRISTMAS EVENING WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A STRONG JET DIVING OVER THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS. CAPE AND SFC-700 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES SUPPORT CONVECTION
BRIEFLY MON EVENING OVER EXTREME SW SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND OFFSHORE
WHERE CAPE IS MAXIMIZED. SO WHILE NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE ONE OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN THE
LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE 100 KT JET NEAR SAN DIEGO.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL FROM 4300-5200 FT LATE IN THE DAY (FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA)...TO 3300 TO 4200 FT BY LATE EVENING.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ABOVE 4500
FEET.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST ON TUE...LEAVING A DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN BUILDING A
STRONG...BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW AND SW CANADA BY FRIDAY. ALL
MODELS DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH...FORMING A REX BLOCK OVER
THE WEST...BUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW VARIES CONSIDERABLY. IN ANY
CASE...THIS WOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS A BREAKING OF THE
WESTERLIES UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTPAC. THIS WILL BRING US A
BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
THE NEW YEAR.

Quoting 43. MtotheJ:

El Ni No in SoCal!


So far it has been NO EL NINO in Soo Cal but hoping it shows up in the New year. NWS saying possible some storms the first week of the new year. Hope they keep coming from January thru March or April.
Quoting 42. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Even if no rain in Soo Cal..........keep that snow coming in the Sierra's! They have been getting good snow thus far this winter and that's where we get a lot of our water. Northern California has been getting low elevation rains also to help alleviate the low water levels in the aquifers. Keep it coming!
50. Nell
Jeff, my 76 year old parents are driving down the eastern sea coast, from N.H to Florida for the next 4 days. They are leaving this morning. Will they be caught in this storm? They think they will only deal with rain. I am worried for them.

Nellie
For a mission designed to last 90 days. Mars Rover Opportunity is still alive and kicking after 11 YEARS and has traveled over 26 miles on Mars. Watch the video.



Link


Quoting 49. LargoFl:




Ya think Pat is getting woken up by some lightning and thunder.......LOL
Quoting 52. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Ya think Pat is getting woken up by some lightning and thunder.......LOL
well pretty dangerous last few days,dozens lost their lives,and who knows how many injured and..how many homes were destroyed and how many people now out of work because their place of business has been destroyed too...real scary time for it being December which is very unusual huh and today there could be more tornado's geez..if he's not up, he better be soon and on high alert huh.
Quoting 24. Scotchtape:


My real question, though, is this: how much ice needs to accumulate before significant damage to trees and and the power infrastructure starts to occur? Thanks!


1/3 to 1/2 inch. Depends on how strong the wind is.
Quoting 51. HurricaneHunterJoe:

For a mission designed to last 90 days. Mars Rover Opportunity is still alive and kicking after 11 YEARS and has traveled over 26 miles on Mars.


The design was a min of 90 days, not actually 90 days. The engineers admitted they built them better than needed so they might get an extended mission.
Quoting 55. MahFL:



The design was a min of 90 days, not actually 90 days. The engineers admitted they built them better than needed so they might get an extended mission.


I'd venture to say they did get an extended mission......some of them guys might be retiring by the time it goes belly up.....LOL
Quoting 53. LargoFl:

well pretty dangerous last few days,dozens lost their lives,and who knows how many injured and..how many homes were destroyed and how many people now out of work because their place of business has been destroyed too...real scary time for it being December which is very unusual huh and today there could be more tornado's geez..if he's not up, he better be soon and on high alert huh.


Yep. Hoping for no more tornados. I've never been in one and think they are about the worst possible thing that can happen weatherwise. Very little warning hop, skip around, just a bad situation.Last number I saw was 43 weather related deaths 11 to tornados. I didn't see any red areas for tornado chances yet, so hope they are on the decline. Now we just have to get the folks that like driving thru rising waters to turn around and not drown.
0830 UNK 2 NNW PRAIRIEVILLE ASCENSION LA 3033 9099 DOWNED TREE IN MAGNOLIA OAKS SUBDIVISION.

I live in Prairieville. I know where this subdivision is. I was close. So I decided to phone the Slidell NWS and relay my own observations to corroborate this report. Regrettably, I didn't have my anemometer with me, but I based my observations on doppler velocities showing near 50 kt winds aloft about an hour before storm passage, as well as my own experience tracking and forecasting weather. Because I care about clarity, I made sure to note that I'm not a certified storm spotter (I have no idea why I haven't taken the required classes yet. >_>).

He's like "Hey, thanks man. We ALWAYS want more information. It really helps us out."
Then I made sure to thank him and the NWS for everything they do. I forecast so I know. It's not easy. Even moreso when they have to assume responsibility for issuing watches and warnings. Most people have a rather poor understanding of how difficult weather forecasting actually is.
A brief global look at Extreme December weather

December was not without extreme weather in many parts of the world. This past week has seen floods in South and North America, the UK and Ireland, worsening drought in southern Africa, wildfire in Australia and southern California, and unseasonably warm weather across the USA and Canada.

Worst floods in 50 years in South America

Worsening drought in southern Africa

United Kingdom - warm and wet

116 homes destroyed by fire in Australia, and crocodiles in floods

Winter wildfire in southern California

A State of Emergency declarations for Missouri and New Mexico


Warm in December for North America


More ...
Good morning

It's 78, partly cloudy, a light breeze and a chance for a shower later this afternoon here on the island today.

Yep, new name (at least on the computer at home) due to an email problem. Won't know what my "name" from work will be until I get there.

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy

P.S. I see that my home town (Ottawa, Ont.) is getting up to 40 cms of snow starting tonight. Must call later and rub it in a bit ;-)
Good morning with some European weather news, while in Germany we're awaiting a drop of temperatures (but it doesn't look like a big deal, at least for the southwest).

Live updates: UK floods: people told to waterproof homes because of increase in 'unknown extremes' - live

BTW, Denmark reports some flooding, too.

From The Local:

Milan smog: traffic limited for three days
Published: 28 Dec 2015 07:31 GMT 01:00
A three-day limit on daytime travel in Milan gets underway on Monday as the northern Italian city tries to bring air pollution down from dangerous levels. ...
A lack of rainfall has led pollution levels to climb in recent weeks.
That has prompted the administration of the Lombardy region, of which Milan is the capital, to appeal to localities to cancel traditional New Year fireworks displays to prevent the smog worsening. ....


Balmy winter hits French ski workers in wallet
Published: 28 Dec 2015 10:42 GMT 01:00
The spring-like temperatures that have disappointed many skiers hoping to find a blanket of fresh powder in the French Alps is having a far more painful impact on resort workers: unemployment. ...

December enters record books as warmest ever
Published: 28 Dec 2015 09:04 GMT 01:00
Switzerland has had its warmest December since records began in 1868, according to meteorologists, with snow in short supply over Christmas. ...

Summer break rush as snow coats Sweden
Published: 28 Dec 2015 11:50 GMT 01:00
Swedes are rushing to book their summer holidays already, as much of the country grapples with snow and ice. ...
News of the surge in holiday bookings came as southern and central Sweden experienced a drop in temperatures, with ice and snow covering the roads as many commuters returned to work on Monday morning.


Spain sends out water-dropping planes to fight wildfires
Published: 27 Dec 2015 20:04 GMT 01:00
(Today Spain gets some natural rains, though, fortunately).


Surface analysis for tomorrow: weather pattern is changing in Europe with a high ("Christine") building up over Scandinavia (= colder continental air is invading Europe from the east). But poor British Isles continue to embrace wet and stormy lows from the Atlantic. And Germany is going to serve as battlefield for these two different airmasses ;-)
Quoting 24. Scotchtape:



I live in Grand Rapids, MI and we're under a winter storm warning for accumulations of a quarter to a half inch of freezing rain from 10 am today to 6am Tuesday, with winds of 30-40 mph and possible higher gusts. Already salted the driveway but worried about our trees (huge silver maples, which are soft-woods) and about power in general. Might pick up a generator this morning before it begins. Can always return it if we don't use it. Work 2nd shift (3-11) but they might close. That's going to be the worst period, according to forecasts.

My real question, though, is this: how much ice needs to accumulate before significant damage to trees and and the power infrastructure starts to occur? Thanks!


Depends on your local trees. Another answer of 1/3-1/2" is accurate although naked power lines away from trees should survive thicker (up to an inch). Silver Maples are notorious for dropping branches so that's bad news. But the other question to answer is, how long since the last downburst/derecho/ice storm or heavy wet snowstorm. Any one of these in the recent past would have brought down the weak tree branches and you may then be able to get through a heavier ice storm without as much damage. The 2012 Derecho and 2011 Irene near miss in DC brought down a lot of trees and damage since then from subsequent events has been much less.

Also when expecting a long power outage, I jam my freezer with saltwater bottles (1 pound/gallon solution) to maintain chill for a day or two longer. Hasn't been tested yet though.. last 24 hour outage was Isabel (44 hours 2003)
Great post, I like the picture of someone naed roebling in brooklyn bridge park, any relationship to the roebling family that built the bridge in the 1860s and 70s?

Nyc central park did reach 32 degrees in november, but this is surreal warmth, with a possibility of not reaching 32 until after new yars day. This warmth has the feel of el nino 82 83, but even warmer, with all the fog and mist, today the sun is shinning throuth the clouds, seems like a week since its been out.
Quoting 50. Nell:

Jeff, my 76 year old parents are driving down the eastern sea coast, from N.H to Florida for the next 4 days. They are leaving this morning. Will they be caught in this storm? They think they will only deal with rain. I am worried for them.

Nellie


95? It's all rain. Go inland a bit and some folks will get sleet tonight, but the ground is warm (all caps).

It's going to take some serious cold weather to bring the ground temperatures down along the east coast. Once the ground gets good and cold, we might see some snow or ice.

95 is a mess on when sunny and 70F, from NYC down to at least Richmond VA. :-(
Nashville..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST THIS MORNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

POTENT STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE SEVERE HERE
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE MID STATE AND WILL LIFT NORTH AND BE ALIGNED
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING. TEMPS
WILL RISE A LITTLE AS GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE GETTING INTO WARM SECTOR BY DAYBREAK.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE RAIN AFFECTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT BUT AS SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY BACK IN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA WILL
BEGIN TO PULL EAST AND BE ALIGNED FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DOWN
THROUGH THE MEMPHIS AREA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 15Z IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST AND BE APPROACHING THE NASHVILLE AREA BY 18Z THEN
ALONG THE PLATEAU BY 22Z. 100 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE
UP THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY AS UPPER LOW...WOUND TIGHTER THAN DICKS HAT BAND...
TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT. SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF MID STATE RATHER QUICKLY
TONIGHT BUT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
ON PLATEAU. DRY BUT COOLER TUESDAY WITH RAIN MOVING BACK IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WAVE DEVELOPS ON BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALONG GULF COAST...FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.



Sign that our future weather may get very interesting.
Rest in peace. The late, great, Meadowlark Lemmon.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / WRN-MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281438Z - 281545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEVERE SQUALL LINE LOCATED OVER
NERN MS INTO WRN TN/MO BOOTHEEL REGIONS. A COMPACT/INTENSE
MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY MIDDAY
WITH 75 KT H5 FLOW MOVING NEWD FROM MS INTO THE TN VALLEY. VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUX/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A 60+ KT LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS DESPITE INITIALLY POOR TO MARGINAL BUOYANCY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLULAR ELEMENTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/28/2015
my thoughts and prayers go out to the victims and families of these storms.....


on the local front we had a total of just over 10 inches of snow on the east side of el paso and officially it was the 6th most accumulated snow in our history....many city and county businesses are closed today with only a high of 39 expected

(click image for Watch Discussion, refresh page for current county-wide warnings)
CFS has been trending colder for January, over the last few days.
Looks like the danger is beginning again today..stay alert folks............................................. .SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
855 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

FLC033-113-281530-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-151228T1530Z/
ESCAMBIA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-
855 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CST FOR CENTRAL
ESCAMBIA AND WEST CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 855 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER FERRY PASS...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MULAT AROUND 900 AM CST.
PACE...FLORIDATOWN AND PEA RIDGE AROUND 905 AM CST.
MILTON AROUND 910 AM CST.
POINT BAKER AROUND 915 AM CST.
WHITING FIELD AROUND 920 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&
Quoting 72. tampabaymatt:




WPC underestimated the rainfall for me today with this last surge of moisture. Was only to pick up 1-1.25" today, but have that already in the rain gauge from midnight and that was at 8am. Will probably double that easily as to what is upstream for me.

Dumped 4.5" inches in a 24 hour period starting early saturday morning. So glad we had a reprieve yesterday with what we are getting today it would have been a very damaging flooding event for my county (douglas). Even with this rain now have no idea as to what my creek will do. 3/4 full this morning down 4 ft from yesterday's peak. But looking at a solid 2" here in 8 hour time span if not more. ... Water was 2 ft. from my house!!!

I imagine dabirds is fighting a similar battle, he received every bit as much maybe more than I did in the same time frame and they are getting even more rain than myself this from this mornings go around.

Winds are strong as well every bit 30 mph. Gusts much higher.



storm looks to be carrying a hurricane full of moisture. good luck all

New Mexico Road Closures
nmroads.com
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 08 FOR SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MIDDLE/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015


Excerpt:

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
TODAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHAINS/SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT WHERE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. SNOWFALL TOTALS
MAY APPROACH A FOOT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATING FROM
0.1 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW
IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MAINE.



Quoting 51. HurricaneHunterJoe:

For a mission designed to last 90 days. Mars Rover Opportunity is still alive and kicking after 11 YEARS and has traveled over 26 miles on Mars. Watch the video.



Link





That's just awesome. Wish my car would last that longwithout issues.
Quoting 82. Dakster:



That's just awesome. Wish my car would last that longwithout issues.


Dear friend of mine, Dr Malcolm Burbank, was part of the biological sterilization process, and some parts of the detection side too.

Thank you Dr. Masters, and Mr Henson. Thank you for sharing your time with us across this Holiday season.
Quoting 63. tampabaymatt:


A landocane appears.
Quoting 67. mtwhitney:

Great post, I like the picture of someone naed roebling in brooklyn bridge park, any relationship to the roebling family that built the bridge in the 1860s and 70s?

Nyc central park did reach 32 degrees in november, but this is surreal warmth, with a possibility of not reaching 32 until after new yars day. This warmth has the feel of el nino 82 83, but even warmer, with all the fog and mist, today the sun is shinning throuth the clouds, seems like a week since its been out.


Thanks, mtwhitney. Just to clarify my statement in the blog post, Central Park hasn't yet dipped below 32°F all winter--though as you point out, they did touch 32°F itself in November (on the 24th). Perhaps in 2016? :-)
Can someone please post the latest El Nino model output?
Is the current event still starting to wane...and are any models expecting La Nina to develop by summer 2016?
Thx.
we
Quoting 86. A4Guy:

Can someone please post the latest El Nino model output?
Is the current event still starting to wane...and are any models expecting La Nina to develop by summer 2016?
Thx.


well a4...i was just going to post on that.....weekly enso update lists the 3.4 region at 2.7.....down another notch.......el nino is doing the snoop dog song....drop it like it's hot......

here's the latest cfsv2...of which the average is for neutral conditions this summer...however looking at the latest 8 runs...in blue...it would appear the consensus will lower....

now as for the ever official...ricderrforecasting.com......we'll see la nina level readings in june

here's the plume of models...as you can see the dynamical average shows la nina readings in the JAS month range but at this point we wouldn't be in official la nina range until the end of the hurricane season



another dangerous day..stay alert and heed your local warnings folks......
Quoting 83. indianrivguy:



Dear friend of mine, Dr Malcolm Burbank, was part of the biological sterilization process, and some parts of the detection side too.

Thank you Dr. Masters, and Mr Henson. Thank you for sharing your time with us across this Holiday season.


sterilization....hmmm....can't have those little robots making babies....ta da da boom!
Seems like next hurricane season could be a bummer.This year the U.S shores were relatively quite.I wonder if that will last into next year.We haven't had a 115mph storm on our shores (officially) since 2005....10 years ago.Can the U.S go into its 11 year without any major hurricanes? I guess time will tell.....We are using that dreading naming list that have been associated with some of the worst hurricanes in the basin.....
Quoting 80. beell:


New Mexico Road Closures
nmroads.com


I was looking at the live traffic cams last night before bed, and one I looked at last night still today, has the same, very long, row of trucks stuck on the freeway. At least there's visual proof in case any get in trouble for being late with their freight. Sure looks pretty when you don't have to be driving in it for sure though
Quoting 82. Dakster:



That's just awesome. Wish my car would last that longwithout issues.


OPPY has quite a few issues actually.
Quoting 40. BobHenson:



Thanks very much, sar! It looks like a good bit of rain did fall in the Tennessee River watershed, along with the Gulf-draining amounts further south (plenty to go around, as it were). Since I'm no expert on how much water is flowing where, I went ahead and split off the Alabama flood reference from the Mississippi section. No question that the amount of rain that's fallen east of the Rockies over the last few days is phenomenal.
There was a lot of rain in parts of north Alabama (5 to 7 inches), so a lot of that will end up in the Mississippi. The good thing with the Tennessee River there is a lot of it is impounded for former TVA hydro power plants, so it can be released more slowly than what you'd get from an uncontrolled river. The bad thing for south Alabama is that's where the really heavy rain rain fell, with amounts from 8 inches to 14 inches from 12/22 to 12/24. Our bad thing is a good thing for the Mississippi flooding problems, since 100% of that water goes to the Gulf, although not before flooding towns like Elba. I seriously don't know why Elba, which is the county seat of Coffee County, isn't relocated. It only has about 4,000 people, and the Pea River floods Elba regularly, but especially when we get these record rains. They have a beautiful courthouse, but it's been flooded seven times in the last 100 years, and it's flooded again. I don't know what it takes to get towns like this out of the floodplain.
Quoting 92. mitthbevnuruodo:



I was looking at the live traffic cams last night before bed, and one I looked at last night still today, has the same, very long, row of trucks stuck on the freeway. At least there's visual proof in case any get in trouble for being late with their freight. Sure looks pretty when you don't have to be driving in it for sure though


We were looking at the same cam last night, mitt.

Here's a screen cap from earlier this morning looking east on I40 on the east side of Albuquerque.



This line of storms looks like it's losing strength rapidly as it hits central Alabama. The rain hasn't gotten to me yet, but it will within the next hour or so. The SPC has cancelled the tornado watch for all of west and central Alabama. SE Alabama never had a watch, and it doesn't look likely that we'll have one now. There are still storms on radar that look severe to me, but nothing that looks tornadic. There have been no tornadoes reported in Mississippi, and only some scattered trees down from wind. It's been windy here this morning, and I have a temperature of 76 with a dewpoint of 70. All the ingredients for severe storms are there except for enough instability, and the helicity is lacking for tornadoes. Might get some damaging winds as the line passes, but hopefully nothing worse. I'm a little nervous about these storms since we weren't supposed to get tornadoes on Christmas Eve but did anyway. Now we just need this line to keep moving and not stall. We can handle and inch or two of rain without serious problems, but more than that wouldn't be good.
Quoting 93. MahFL:



OPPY has quite a few issues actually.


But they have been overcome as I don't believe there is a rover service station on Mars yet... I still think it is impressive that something built for 90 days is going strong 11 years later.

How did they get what appears to be dozens of the same truck to line up on I-40 like that. That traffic looks like Miami during rush hour on a weekday.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
DOTHAN ALABAMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 575...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...MEAD

Hey all-

I really haven't frequented the blog much lately. Not too much of note I guess, up until a few days ago. My main reason for coming out of lurking is to ask about the hurricane season totals contest. Is there anywhere where I can find the scoreboard and see how I did? Thanks!
ILwthr, dumped 3" Sat Night, ditches full and getting on roads then. Dumped 4.8" more this morning, water standing in places I've never seen even in quick gusher downpours, except a quick 7" summer one. StL flood levels will be just below '93, but came up much quicker. Downstream will be worse, because in '93 the Kaskaskia wasn't really adding to the Mississippi like it will be now. Will check how much more in gauge at lunch, bet at least another inch with more coming.
Quoting 95. beell:



We were looking at the same cam last night, mitt.

Here's a screen cap from earlier this morning looking east on I40 on the east side of Albuquerque.




I really hated I-40 through Albuquerque when I was driving the motorhome. It always seemed to be windy, and often icy in winter. As your screen cap shows, the primary occupants of the freeway are 18 wheelers, and you'd better get in line with them and keep moving if you don't want to get squashed. That wasn't always easy to do when I had both hands on the wheel in a death grip fighting wind and was surrounded by trucks on all sides.
GEFS really crashing the AO and has been trending negative with the NAO, and has continued with a forecast for a positive PNA/negative EPO western ridge. Today's CFS monthly forecast illustrating cold anomalies for the bottom half CONUS and ECONUS, backing away from it's previous forecasts the month for a warm anomalies in those regions.

Quoting 98. StAugustineFL:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS


That's kind of strange. The watch extends to Henry County, which is the next county south of me...but not Barbour County. The warning box bulges northward further west but then retracts as it covers SE Alabama. I wonder what the thought process was in drawing those lines? We've already had a tornado warning in Butler County, which is west of me but about on the same latitude. Seems odd to cut the warning box off so sharply, as it's rare to get storms in Henry County that don't also affect me. We'll see.
Quoting 102. Drakoen:

GEFS really crashing the AO and has been trending negative with the NAO, and has continued with a forecast for a positive PNA/negative EPO western ridge. Today's CFS monthly forecast illustrating cold anomalies for the bottom half CONUS and ECONUS, backing away from it's previous forecasts the month for a warm anomalies in those regions.


Is this all normal for a Strong El nino?
Quoting 102. Drakoen:

GEFS really crashing the AO and has been trending negative with the NAO, and has continued with a forecast for a positive PNA/negative EPO western ridge. Today's CFS monthly forecast illustrating cold anomalies for the bottom half CONUS and ECONUS, backing away from it's previous forecasts the month for a warm anomalies in those regions.


Greetings drak...Time to get the salt..The long range CFS has the eastern third of the U.S. being hit repeatedly by winters storms..It looks bad, and since it shows numerous storms, that increases the likelihood of it actually occurring...jmo..
Quoting 99. WIBadgerWeather:

Hey all-

I really haven't frequented the blog much lately. Not too much of note I guess, up until a few days ago. My main reason for coming out of lurking is to ask about the hurricane season totals contest. Is there anywhere where I can find the scoreboard and see how I did? Thanks!
Max posted the scoreboard several times, and he has it at his blog. I don't have a link handy, but maybe someone else can help you out. Just one more example of why we need a decent search feature here.
Well, all of this severe weather and flooding rains continue to miss C FL, and we remain locked into what resembles a strong La Nina pattern, which of course is odd since we’re in a strong El Nino. After an extremely wet summer, I haven’t had a day with over 1 inch of rain since Sept. 6th. My totals in October and November are 1.89” and 1.23” respectively. In December, I’ve picked up exactly one day of measurable rain, in which 0.47” fell. If this ridging pattern doesn’t change and we continue to break record highs every day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see C FL be placed into drought status soon. With El Nino beginning to weaken, this might be a total bust for most of FL.

It’s currently 84 degrees in Tampa with a dewpoint of 70. So another record is sure to be broken today.
Quoting 105. hydrus:

Greetings drak...Time to get the salt..The long range CFS has the eastern third of the U.S. being hit repeatedly by winters storms..It looks bad, and since it shows numerous storms, that increases the likelihood of it actually occurring...jmo..
After I paid for thar expensive winter gear it better do something this winter.
Quoting 85. BobHenson:



Thanks, mtwhitney. Just to clarify my statement in the blog post, Central Park hasn't yet dipped below 32F all winter--though as you point out, they did touch 32F itself in November (on the 24th). Perhaps in 2016? :-)


First frostless December in Holland, the month will rank as a #24 warmest April (as of 1901) and its average minimum temperature will be a few tenths above the monthly (daily) record warmest Dec to date (1974 as of 1706). Hottest X-Mas ever, early morning 26th 14 C and as regional dwellers like Londoners mentioned that was eerie.
It's the same heat that is drowning parts of the UK and Ireland where it pushes against the polar front.

Huge circulation change in motion in Europe too, January starts much cooler, maybe even cold for Holland and decidely cold in central and eastern EU. Maybe - skepticism was voiced from Mainz today.

Meantime I stand in awe at the US goings-on.
Quoting 85. BobHenson:



Thanks, mtwhitney. Just to clarify my statement in the blog post, Central Park hasn't yet dipped below 32F all winter--though as you point out, they did touch 32F itself in November (on the 24th). Perhaps in 2016? :-)

Looks like even Cleveland might squeak by with only three days below 32. At Burke Lakefront Airport, the temperature has only dropped below 32 once. Some colder weather is about to move in, but only colder in comparison to what they've had for the whole month of December. The forecast for New Year's day is 33 and 24, which is almost exactly average. I know it's not unprecedented, but the idea of having highs in the 60's Christmas Week is still pretty amazing. It's still Cleveland, which is not my choice of somewhere to live again but, if the weather was like that all the time, it would make the city less horrendous. :-)
Quoting 108. washingtonian115:

After I paid for thar expensive winter gear it better do something this winter.
Well hello Wash...You have read my winter forecasts before...You will not be disappointed about buying your winter gear at all...:)
Quoting 104. Gearsts:

Is this all normal for a Strong El nino?
No..Not in my book...Something big is going to happen with all this energy around...
Quoting 107. tampabaymatt:

Well, all of this severe weather and flooding rains continue to miss C FL, and we remain locked into what resembles a strong La Nina pattern, which of course is odd since we’re in a strong El Nino. After an extremely wet summer, I haven’t had a day with over 1 inch of rain since Sept. 6th. My totals in October and November are 1.89” and 1.23” respectively. In December, I’ve picked up exactly one day of measurable rain, in which 0.47” fell. If this ridging pattern doesn’t change and we continue to break record highs every day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see C FL be placed into drought status soon. With El Nino beginning to weaken, this might be a total bust for most of FL.

It’s currently 84 degrees in Tampa with a dewpoint of 70. So another record is sure to be broken today.



The mets in Melbourne office are saying that regardless of El Nino's progression/regression, the status of today's strength effects the weather several weeks later. So...January - March should be El Nino-ish because of the Nov - Dec levels.
Quoting 33. Astrometeor:



You should google the February 1994 ice storm. Memphis, Nashville, Jackson MS, massive area of the midsouth absolutely crippled. The county next door to Nashville lost critical electrical systems and some people didn't get power back for a whole month.

Amazingly, Mom said that the house the family was in (I wouldn't be born for two years) didn't lose power. A lady who was renting asked Mom about the light show/sounds (she thought it was a thunderstorm), saying "I've never seen/heard so much before."

Mom's response: "That's not thunder, those are transformers failing and trees breaking".


Thankfully, that one missed most of Alabama, Astro. The far northwest counties closest to Tennessee got it though, and Haleyville had a measured five inch accumulation on powerlines. They were able to measure it exactly because the lines were down in the street, dead. The rest of the state stayed just far enough above freezing to not have much ice. It was a bad storm, and unusual for the wide geographical territory it affected.
Quoting 67. mtwhitney:

Great post, I like the picture of someone naed roebling in brooklyn bridge park, any relationship to the roebling family that built the bridge in the 1860s and 70s?

Nyc central park did reach 32 degrees in november, but this is surreal warmth, with a possibility of not reaching 32 until after new yars day. This warmth has the feel of el nino 82 83, but even warmer, with all the fog and mist, today the sun is shinning throuth the clouds, seems like a week since its been out.


Meg Roebling is the wife of Kristian Roebling, the the great-great-great-grandson of John Roebling.

Link
116. vis0
Anyone remember my reply to sar2401 last summer 2015 with a (The) Four seasons (musical group) image stating look out from blizzards w/Tornadoes near by, or a Hurricane / Blizzard ... no? darn. on my zilly blog pg 5 cmmnt#244 i had posted as to be on the look out for severe weather for this period••• (rest of this paragraph is on my zilly pg.5 cmmnt#246. as promised no longer linking my blogs)
AS TO THIS BLOG::
Oh well, then 'hear' this::  and "they" say never say...

QUOTING from the BlogBytes content::

"A massive pulse of flood waters from this weekend's epic December rains
will pile into the Mississippi River over the next few days, bringing
the river to flood levels never recorded this time of year.
"

Some others here might also have the feeling that NATURE will teach us as to never pollute her home....again (though this time a more dangerous pollutant).

Many have stated the affects of a warming planet, that hold much moisture.
Correctly over the past 50+ yrs those studies have been peer reviewed to make sure they are correct.
i'd say by the 1990s mankind knew those studies showing the bad effects of aGW were indeed correct.

What has been done from the 1990s till now is a start, that "start" should have begun in the 1990s but i guess better late than "never".

Now as we are shown proof of natures' reply to a warming moisture filled planet on top of natural oscillations as ENSO (El Nio / La Nia / El Modoki) what will mankind do?

REMEMBER this is WINTER in the Northern Hemisphere when we see 2 feet of snow and think "WOW THAT IS A LOT", yet that is ONLY the equivalence of ROUGHLY 2 to 3 inches of rain.

 WE SAW OVER A LARGE AREA, 5-12 inches of rain during WINTER if it where possible to turn into snow that's over 50 to 100+ inches of snow. If these flooding water freeze underground near major cities i wonder how infrastructure will hold up year after year aka pressure of water icing up against cement foundations.

The Q is, will humans be around to remember and pass on this "never" experience.  How many "never experienced / recorded" weather extremes in one lifetime will it take for humanity to prioritize taking care of HOME (Earth) over greed or the most desired wealth that greed desires...power!

paraphrasing... 'Absolute power corrupts...'
There's a storm moving into Montgomery that looks at least severe, if not tornadic. No warning, however. The winds are really increasing ahead of the front now, with 31 mph gusts. I think the SPC may have been a bit premature cancelling the tornado watch for central Alabama.

EDIT: Mobile just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Crenshaw County southeast of Greenville. This storms looks almost identical to the storm near Montgomery that has no warning. There's really a difference in how each office decides how to issue warnings. Mobile issues lots of warnings, and does so for any storm that looks like it might be severe. Birmingham is often behind the power curve on storms, often issuing warnings when the storm is right on top of the warned area. I don't know why this difference, but it's pretty striking sitting here on the border of the Mobile and Birmingham warning areas.
Quoting 95. beell:



We were looking at the same cam last night, mitt.

Here's a screen cap from earlier this morning looking east on I40 on the east side of Albuquerque.






I40 still closed east as far as I know. There are places with 10 foot drifts near Tucumcari that plows may not be able to get to for several days.




Quoting 99. WIBadgerWeather:

Hey all-

I really haven't frequented the blog much lately. Not too much of note I guess, up until a few days ago. My main reason for coming out of lurking is to ask about the hurricane season totals contest. Is there anywhere where I can find the scoreboard and see


MaxWeather
No one got all 3 numbers and it looks like the final image was deleted, I think it was 10/4/2.....
Quoting 118. VAstorms:



I40 still closed east as far as I know. There are places with 10 foot drifts near Tucumcari that plows may not be able to get to for several days.


That last part blows....

Seems like I-40 is closed often in the winter.
Quoting 104. Gearsts:

Is this all normal for a Strong El nino?


I don't think we have enough strong El Nino's to determine that. There are ENSO independent factors that contribute to the spatial temperature distribution over the CONUS as well.
Quoting 110. sar2401:

Looks like even Cleveland might squeak by with only three days below 32. At Burke Lakefront Airport, the temperature has only dropped below 32 once. Some colder weather is about to move in, but only colder in comparison to what they've had for the whole month of December. The forecast for New Year's day is 33 and 24, which is almost exactly average. I know it's not unprecedented, but the idea of having highs in the 60's Christmas Week is still pretty amazing. It's still Cleveland, which is not my choice of somewhere to live again but, if the weather was like that all the time, it would make the city less horrendous. :-)


I was looking at some old twitter comments - last winter we didn't get real hard freezes until February here. This year? We hit single digits Thanksgiving Late November, for you furr'ners :) week. Not even January, and we've got a couple inches on the ground and won't see any real melt until tomorrow at the earliest. :)
Quoting 116. vis0:

Anyone remember my reply to sar2401 last summer 2015 with a (The) Four seasons (musical group) image stating look out from blizzards w/Tornadoes near by, or a Hurricane / Blizzard ... no? darn. on my zilly blog pg 5 cmmnt#244 i had posted as to be on the look out for severe weather for this period%u2022%u2022%u2022 (rest of this paragraph is on my zilly pg.5 cmmnt#246. as promised no longer linking my blogs)
AS TO THIS BLOG::
Oh well, then 'hear' this:: and "they" say never say...

QUOTING from the BlogBytes content::

"A massive pulse of flood waters from this weekend's epic December rains
will pile into the Mississippi River over the next few days, bringing
the river to flood levels never recorded this time of year.
"

Some others here might also have the feeling that NATURE will teach us as to never pollute her home....again (though this time a more dangerous pollutant).

Many have stated the affects of a warming planet, that hold much moisture.
Correctly over the past 50 yrs those studies have been peer reviewed to make sure they are correct.
i'd say by the 1990s mankind knew those studies showing the bad effects of aGW were indeed correct.

What has been done from the 1990s till now is a start, that "start" should have begun in the 1990s but i guess better late than "never".

Now as we are shown proof of natures' reply to a warming moisture filled planet on top of natural oscillations as ENSO (El Nio / La Nia / El Modoki) what will mankind do?

REMEMBER this is WINTER in the Northern Hemisphere when we see 2 feet of snow and think "WOW THAT IS A LOT", yet that is ONLY the equivalence of ROUGHLY 2 to 3 inches of rain.

WE SAW OVER A LARGE AREA, 5-12 inches of rain during WINTER if it where possible to turn into snow that's over 50 to 100 inches of snow. If these flooding water freeze underground near major cities i wonder how infrastructure will hold up year after year aka pressure of water icing up against cement foundations.

The Q is, will humans be around to remember and pass on this "never" experience. How many "never experienced / recorded" weather extremes in one lifetime will it take for humanity to prioritize taking care of HOME (Earth) over greed or the most desired wealth that greed desires...power!

paraphrasing... 'Absolute power corrupts...'

I do remember that "zilly" post, Vis. We didn't get a hurricane and blizzard, but we sure got the tornadoes followed by blizzards. It's not all that unusual to get tornadoes followed by snow, but to get the combination of tornadoes, floods, and blizzards during Christmas week seems pretty far from the norm to me.
Someone who actually has all those numbers can tell us better than just my admittedly faulty memory.

I'm not concerned for underground drainage systems made of concrete. They are generally deep enough that they don't freeze, and water moves through it at a pretty good good clip. What does concern me is the thousands of miles of wood stave pipe that's still common in the Northeast, including NYC. Much of this pipe was laid in the mid to late nineteenth century. A lot of it was laid when engineering and construction standards are nowhere near as high as they are today. A lot of it is too shallow, and the slope isn't consistent enough to stop ponding, especially at pipe junctions. Wood actually isn't a bad material for piping, since the right woods swell slightly as they get saturated, and leak less than a lot of cast iron or concrete piping. The coming infrastructure problems are from a combination of just plain age and the lesser engineering standards of the time. Like the Mars Rover, they've already performed far beyond their normal life expectancy. They will start failing all at once, and it's going to be almost as expensive as another Mars mission to fix them all.
In case nobody noticed it has also been slightly damp in Northern UK -
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/2 8/uk-flood-costs-could-be-higher-than-5bn-pounds-i nsurance
with the cost over 5 billion pounds - about 8 billion dollars.
And there is a heap more rain on the way.

Australia is also in the wet up north
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/de c/28/woman-dies-floodwaters-force-hundreds-evacuat e-across-northern-territory
with fires in the South.

Just reminding everyone out there that there is a whole world out there and lets not get too parochial!

All the best to everyone out there suffering from these severe weather events.

Quoting 122. nonblanche:



I was looking at some old twitter comments - last winter we didn't get real hard freezes until February here. This year? We hit single digits Thanksgiving Late November, for you furr'ners :) week. Not even January, and we've got a couple inches on the ground and won't see any real melt until tomorrow at the earliest. :)
I talked to my brother about an hour ago. It's snowing again in Reno, and they expect two inches. Like you, the temperature hasn't gone above freezing the last couple of days, so the snow just keeps accumulating. It looks like he'll have about five inches on the ground by tonight. It might hit a few degrees above freezing Wednesday and Saturday, but the nighttime lows will still be in the teens or single digits. I've wondered what might happen if Western Nevada gets into a situation where accumulating snows for much of the winter happens in the decades ahead. It would be bad for cities like Reno, who aren't set up to handle plowing every day, but much worse for all the ranchers. They depend on winter pastures being clear of snow for much of the winter so the cows can graze. This climate change thing may be a lot more widespread than just watching Miami go under water. :-)
126. vis0

Quoting 9. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yes, but after seeing so many disastrous results.........why try?
i vis0 reply QUOTING 
Quoting 7. Abacosurf:


"So many underestimate the power of water and overestimate the capabilities of their vehicles."




To ex-plain it ( i know HurricaneHunterJoe knows, but for those that might think hmm..whats da big deal?) in layman term THINK

¿why is your car able to use so called HORSE POWERS to get from point A to pint B?

ANSWER:: Its wheels are touching the ground.

Once you drive the car over a roadway that has either moving water or ones headlights is not reflecting the rain bouncing off the pavement ahead of you that car can be lifted (by water / fluids) EVEN ~1/4 an inch of a lift... 

(as i think ^Grothar or ^Sar2401 or ^aquak9 said)::

...one is no longer in a car but in a boat without a rudder.

PLEASE readers do not add a rudder to you cars trunk, you'll still end up floating away the only difference will be those scratching their heads as they search the woods for mangled up cars and wonder why did this victim die with a boomerang in the hands.

ANOTHER EXAMPLE:: See those drivers sliding around on ICE the car is still touching a surface, yet those cars slide at 50 mph CRASHING!!! into other objects / people, so if you ever hydroplaned or slide the car on ice then DO NOT EVEN THINK of going over a street covered by water** no matter how many times before you drove over that street when it was JUST RAINING, because floating has less contact compared to ice or hydroplaning.

YET Another Example:: Why does one use a bridge to go over a creek
So why would you cross through a river created by flood waters? aren't rivers stronger than creeks?



**REMEMBER if you see moving waters MOVE AWAY NOT TOWARDS, If you see the rain drops causing ripples in the water ahead ALSO move away.   As in the latter, in not visibly seeing rain drops bouncing of the street then that area is flooding or there is no road there since the rain drop is not bouncing off any solid object (asphalt / cement). If you cannot see rain drops in front of your car's headlights when it rains, please get an eye exam your life depends on it.
Absolutely pouring sideways rain when left for lunch, but greatly eased by time headed back to work. Another 1.5" in gauge, so now over 9 1/4" in my part of S C IL. Somewhat lightening of SW skies too, may be about over. Looking at radar appears low has made it up to I-70 just E of Columbia, MO, so may clear out soon if no back fill. Down to just under 29.5" here, temps in mid 30s. Looks like our first week of below freezing lows coming, w/ a couple of highs also staying below too. None showing teens, though close, so might get there for first time. Depending on how we drain, some may be able to ice skate in their yard low spots on New Year's.

The family of 5 that Bob mentioned had drown just SE of me was speculated to be lost after getting off I-57 on their way back to MN. I suspect they may have taken that road before, to get to US 51, because 57 heads back NE at that point. However, it's a rural road w/ a few curves, & they may have strayed off at one in low visibility. They then came over a hill at a point where there's just a low water crossing for a creek. Sheriff says they may not have been able to stop before hitting the rising creek. US 50 ten miles S would have been a much better choice to catch 51. Regardless why, very sad.
Quoting 124. ekogaia:

In case nobody noticed it has also been slightly damp in Northern UK -
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/2 8/uk-flood-costs-could-be-higher-than-5bn-pounds-i nsurance
with the cost over 5 billion pounds - about 8 billion dollars.
And there is a heap more rain on the way.

Australia is also in the wet up north
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/de c/28/woman-dies-floodwaters-force-hundreds-evacuat e-across-northern-territory
with fires in the South.

Just reminding everyone out there that there is a whole world out there and lets not get too parochial!

All the best to everyone out there suffering from these severe weather events.


I mentioned this in an earlier comment, though without the news links [thanks for those]. Although I tend to think of the UK as having a relatively rainy climate, the recent flooding has been stunning.
129. ariot
Quoting 108. washingtonian115:

After I paid for thar expensive winter gear it better do something this winter.


Did you buy a snow blower? I was so tempted after last year, but I didn't.

I'm north of you, about at the top of the bay in MD.
Quoting 120. Dakster:



That last part blows....

Seems like I-40 is closed often in the winter.
I spent two days in a rest area in January of 2005 near Albuquerque because there was too much snow and ice to go any further east. I barely made it up the hill to the rest area. There were hundreds of trucks squeezed into every square inch of the rest area. I stopped early and knew what was ahead, so I got a space over in the corner where the trucks couldn't easily fit. It would have been much worse I was in the middle of that pack. The rules were no generators or engines after 10 pm. Since the temperature was close to zero, no one obeyed that rule. You can imagine how sleep inducing the sounds of hundreds of trucks idling is. I was lucky that my rig has a 100 pound propane tank and that my generator runs on propane. I was able to shut down the furnace when I recharged the batteries and run my little electric heater to keep things above freezing. This was one time that all the money I had invested in solar panels didn't pay off. I didn't run out of propane, so it could have been worse, but I don't have pleasant memories of I-40 in the winter.
Quoting 126. vis0:


i vis0 reply QUOTING 
Quoting 7. Abacosurf:


"So many underestimate the power of water and overestimate the capabilities of their vehicles."




To ex-plain it ( i know HurricaneHunterJoe knows, but for those that might think hmm..whats da big deal?) in layman term THINK

¿why is your car able to use so called HORSE POWERS to get from point A to pint B?

ANSWER:: Its wheels are touching the ground.

Once you drive the car over a roadway that has either moving water or ones headlights is not reflecting the rain bouncing off the pavement ahead of you that car can be lifted (by water / fluids) EVEN ~1/4 an inch of a lift... 

(as i think ^Grothar or ^Sar2401 or ^aquak9 said)::

...one is no longer in a car but in a boat without a rudder.

PLEASE readers do not add a rudder to you cars trunk, you'll still end up floating away the only difference will be those scratching their heads as they search the woods for mangled up cars and wonder why did this victim die with a boomerang in the hands.

ANOTHER EXAMPLE:: See those drivers sliding around on ICE the car is still touching a surface, yet those cars slide at 50 mph CRASHING!!! into other objects / people, so if you ever hydroplaned or slide the car on ice then DO NOT EVEN THINK of going over a street covered by water** no matter how many times before you drove over that street when it was JUST RAINING, because floating has less contact compared to ice or hydroplaning.

YET Another Example:: Why does one use a bridge to go over a creek
So why would you cross through a river created by flood waters? aren't rivers stronger than creeks?



**REMEMBER if you see moving waters MOVE AWAY NOT TOWARDS, If you see the rain drops causing ripples in the water ahead ALSO move away.   As in the latter, in not visibly seeing rain drops bouncing of the street then that area is flooding or there is no road there since the rain drop is not bouncing off any solid object (asphalt / cement). If you cannot see rain drops in front of your car's headlights when it rains, please get an eye exam your life depends on it.

I've had the up close and personal with the 1/4 inch of water on a roadway removing control of the car from the driver. I think this is why people get into trouble with flooded roadways; one minute everything is par for the course, and the next one has little to no control over what is happening with the vehicle. One of the vehicles in the blog post had five people in it. Before they even got their minds wrapped around the fact that the car wasn't on the road anymore, that car was prolly underwater.

The chances that running water will lead to death by drowning are relatively small in the Bahamas. We just don't have the right topography for it. However, there are several instances where the only deaths during passing hurricanes [Noel is a good example] have occurred because people drove into what they thought was a few inches of water, but which turned out to be a few feet.

My advice: if you don't have to go out in it, stay in.
Quoting 127. dabirds:

Absolutely pouring sideways rain when left for lunch, but greatly eased by time headed back to work. Another 1.5" in gauge, so now over 9 1/4" in my part of S C IL. Somewhat lightening of SW skies too, may be about over. Looking at radar appears low has made it up to I-70 just E of Columbia, MO, so may clear out soon if no back fill. Down to just under 29.5" here, temps in mid 30s. Looks like our first week of below freezing lows coming, w/ a couple of highs also staying below too. None showing teens, though close, so might get there for first time. Depending on how we drain, some may be able to ice skate in their yard low spots on New Year's.

The family of 5 that Bob mentioned had drown just SE of me was speculated to be lost after getting off I-57 on their way back to MN. I suspect they may have taken that road before, to get to US 51, because 57 heads back NE at that point. However, it's a rural road w/ a few curves, & they may have strayed off at one in low visibility. They then came over a hill at a point where there's just a low water crossing for a creek. Sheriff says they may not have been able to stop before hitting the rising creek. US 50 ten miles S would have been a much better choice to catch 51. Regardless why, very sad.
That bolded part sounds pretty much like what I expected might have happened. It's remarkably easy to just keep sliding once you begin to aquaplane ..... :o/
Sheriff Says 4 Soldiers Among Missouri Flood Victims

A Missouri sheriff says four soldiers from another country who were temporarily stationed at Fort Leonard Wood are among the six people who have died in flooding in the state.

Pulaski County Sheriff Ronald Long said in a statement late Sunday night that a witness saw a car drive into a flooded roadway a day earlier. It was swept downstream. First responders found two men inside the sedan who apparently had drowned, and the bodies of two other men who had been in the car were found Sunday.

Long says the victims were "international soldiers" who were temporarily stationed at the central Missouri Army base for training. They were not immediately identified, pending notification of their families by the U.S. State Department, and the statement did not give their nationalities.

A message seeking further information was left with the base's media affairs department.

Long says it's possible that a fifth person was in the car because an acquaintance of the soldiers' is missing.

The statement says the other two people who died in flooding were the occupants of a vehicle that tried to cross a flooded road.
Quoting 124. ekogaia:

In case nobody noticed it has also been slightly damp in Northern UK -
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/2 8/uk-flood-costs-could-be-higher-than-5bn-pounds-i nsurance
with the cost over 5 billion pounds - about 8 billion dollars.
And there is a heap more rain on the way.

Australia is also in the wet up north
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/de c/28/woman-dies-floodwaters-force-hundreds-evacuat e-across-northern-territory
with fires in the South.

Just reminding everyone out there that there is a whole world out there and lets not get too parochial!

All the best to everyone out there suffering from these severe weather events.


Really, we haven't been ignoring the floods in the UK. There have been several posts about it on this blog, and Barb does a good job keeping us posted about weather news in the UK and on the continent. In our defense, however, this blog is US based , so it's going to be parochial by its nature. When a very large percentage of the members reside in North America and the Caribbean, I'd expect to see most posts about weather from those areas. I don't frequent UK weather blogs, but I imagine the vast majority of posts there are about the flooding with not many about weather over here. That's as it should be, and doesn't indicate people on either side of the pond don't know what's going on outside their borders.
Quoting 129. ariot:



Did you buy a snow blower? I was so tempted after last year, but I didn't.

I'm north of you, about at the top of the bay in MD.
I brought one back in January 2010 and boy did we need it that year.It went into retirement for 010-11 11-12 and 12-13
Quoting 134. BahaHurican:

Sheriff Says 4 Soldiers Among Missouri Flood Victims

A Missouri sheriff says four soldiers from another country who were temporarily stationed at Fort Leonard Wood are among the six people who have died in flooding in the state.

Pulaski County Sheriff Ronald Long said in a statement late Sunday night that a witness saw a car drive into a flooded roadway a day earlier. It was swept downstream. First responders found two men inside the sedan who apparently had drowned, and the bodies of two other men who had been in the car were found Sunday.

Long says the victims were "international soldiers" who were temporarily stationed at the central Missouri Army base for training. They were not immediately identified, pending notification of their families by the U.S. State Department, and the statement did not give their nationalities.

A message seeking further information was left with the base's media affairs department.

Long says it's possible that a fifth person was in the car because an acquaintance of the soldiers' is missing.

The statement says the other two people who died in flooding were the occupants of a vehicle that tried to cross a flooded road.

That makes sense in terms of why they may have gotten lost and didn't realize the dangers of that low water crossing. Fort Leonard Wood trains a lot of soldiers from other countries, especially in civil engineering, power systems, and chemical warfare. A terrible end for those four guys who probably had no idea what they were getting into before it was too late. I've seen vehicles swept downstream when the water was about a foot deep and flowing at maybe 50 CFS. It really doesn't take much.
138. vis0

Quoting 84. washingtonian115:

A landocane appears.
remind my mind, was thinking of Brown Ocean BILL
While they may have aquaplaned as well Baha, I took it from the Sheriff's quote that they topped the hill and there's the water, no time to stop. More about being in unfamiliar territory than anything, probably the same with the foreign soldiers at Ft. Leonard Wood.
Quoting 130. sar2401:

I spent two days in a rest area in January of 2005 near Albuquerque because there was too much snow and ice to go any further east. I barely made it up the hill to the rest area. There were hundreds of trucks squeezed into every square inch of the rest area. I stopped early and knew what was ahead, so I got a space over in the corner where the trucks couldn't easily fit. It would have been much worse I was in the middle of that pack. The rules were no generators or engines after 10 pm. Since the temperature was close to zero, no one obeyed that rule. You can imagine how sleep inducing the sounds of hundreds of trucks idling is. I was lucky that my rig has a 100 pound propane tank and that my generator runs on propane. I was able to shut down the furnace when I recharged the batteries and run my little electric heater to keep things above freezing. This was one time that all the money I had invested in solar panels didn't pay off. I didn't run out of propane, so it could have been worse, but I don't have pleasant memories of I-40 in the winter.


I'll pass on that experience - if I know something nasty is coming I drive around it, don't leave, leave earlier or whatever I can do to avoid it. One of the reasons I like the wunderground, I can get an idea of what storms are going to affect what areas first.

And I know all about the no space in truck stops when the weather gets bad. Had that happen in the mountains of PA and I had to go to the next rest area during a fierce rain storm. Glad it sorta worked out for you and with temp near zero that no idle or running a generator rule goes out the window.

I've always wanted to take I-40 as the beltway across the next time I drive across the US. But it seems like I-40 is worse than I-70 thru I-94 - at least in that area of the US.
Quoting 137. sar2401:

That makes sense in terms of why they may have gotten lost and didn't realize the dangers of that low water crossing. Fort Leonard Wood trains a lot of soldiers from other countries, especially in civil engineering, power systems, and chemical warfare. A terrible end for those four guys who probably had no idea what they were getting into before it was too late. I've seen vehicles swept downstream when the water was about a foot deep and flowing at maybe 50 CFS. It really doesn't take much.
The situation with the Illinois deaths seems similar - people unfamiliar with the local terrain got caught. I pulled up Google map of the area and there is a spot where the road goes down into the creek valley / floodplain and runs parallel to it before crossing it, then quickly ascends a hill on the other side. Somebody coming down that hill wouldn't even realize that the entire flood plain was likely to be underwater .... they prolly just slid right down into the water. Apparently they also got a call off to emergency responders, but the car sank before they got out.. ...

More HERE.
Quoting 133. tampabaymatt:


So far, so good. No severe weather warnings up here as of now, although there's a warning for the DeFuniak Springs area in the Panhandle. The storms are holding together better near the coast. At least we don't have the discrete cells we had Thursday that were spawning all the tornadoes. Still no rain here, but the wind is really howling - I just had a 37 mph gust. Since the ground is still so saturated, that's already bringing down trees before the storms even get here. Looks like we get another round of storms on Wednesday but, after that, at least five days of fairly benign weather. We can use a an extended break.
Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

I brought one back in January 2010 and boy did we need it that year.It went into retirement for 010-11 11-12 and 12-13


In your case, don't buy another one... Supposed to work the other way. You buy it and don't need it.
144. vis0

Quoting 88. ricderr:

here's the plume of models...as you can see the dynamical average shows la nina readings in the JAS month range but at this point we wouldn't be in official la nina range until the end of the hurricane season




remember dudes and duddets even if El Nio is heading downward it  was up so high that a FULL 1 C drop still has it as a moderate El Nino and any natural hiccup upward IF El Nino is still above 1.68/2.0 means a lot more UMPH for that mini rise.  BTW could not find any El Modoki write-ups on ricderrforecasting.com  (remember MAYBE modoki can appears as a cross between Nino/Nia though only El Nino Modoki version is officially recorded, one can think of its non nino areas as a La Nina Modoki. [humor]yer welcom ncstorm[humor]) BTW the ricderrforecasting.com  is only available via Hasbro's Lil Internet magik screen.


Webcam. Current moon rise seen from Grosser Arber = peak (4775 ft) of Bavarian Forest in southeastern Germany, snowless at present, but this may change in some days. Sure is: difficult times are ahead of the UK on December 30, again:

Storm Frank set to bring more rain
BBC, 8 December 2015 Last updated at 13:28
Warnings have been issued for heavy rain on Wednesday across parts of Northern England including some areas already affected by flooding. Ben Rich has the details.



Good and safe evening/night everyone! Hugs to Radar Dog in case there is thunder, Sar :-)
Quoting 139. dabirds:

While they may have aquaplaned as well Baha, I took it from the Sheriff's quote that they topped the hill and there's the water, no time to stop. More about being in unfamiliar territory than anything, probably the same with the foreign soldiers at Ft. Leonard Wood.
Agree. If this happened where I think it did, they wouldn't have had very much time to observe the situation before they were in the water.
Quoting 129. ariot:



Did you buy a snow blower? I was so tempted after last year, but I didn't.

I'm north of you, about at the top of the bay in MD.


Here in the mountains west and north of DC, we had 75 and humid yesterday and woke up to 38 and a threat of ice. Forget the snow blower, we need a weather therapist to try to work on this multiple personality thing... call it Winter Storm Sybil :)
Well! It has not snowed at my house YET but that will change in the next 12 hours....Goliath is certainly living up to its name. Another 36 hours or so before it clears the US...

What's up next?

Just a little bit of ground truth local info on the flooding rain that has now ended for Northwest Arkansas. I live near Fayetteville Arkansas, in the northwest corner of the state. I have gotten storm total 9.4" (~24 cm) rain almost all of it in 36 hours. There are rainfall totals to at least 12.5" (~32 cm) in a slightly longer (maybe 6 hours) time frame, within 20 miles (32 km) of me. Incredible flooding to say the least. However, this has not been a one time event in terms of very heavy rainfalls. 5 inches fell two week before, and a similar 3-5" rain event two weeks before that, and another two weeks before that. Been on a two week cycle for a while.

Looks like the overall pattern will be changing over the next week or two (have seen that happen many many time about the beginning of the year in my decades of living here). Wondering if it will settle out with colder spilling down the east as some of the climate models suggest, with the storm track continuing along the south typical of El Nino. That has happened before in El Nino's and resulted in frequent winter storms..... or not if the track is too far south, or the cold not below average (I sit in the transition zone where slightly colder and it snows/sleet, slightly warmer and it rains). Just the same, nothing is stable in the weather any more with sea ice loss among other factors, so intense times are likely to continue.
151. beell
Quoting 120. Dakster:





Seems like I-40 is closed often in the winter.


New Mexico: "The Land of Entrapment".

btw, it's open now.
This afternoon's ECMWF 12z run looks great. Bridging negative AO block. Negative EPO/Postive PNA with the subtropical jet undercutting. West-based negative NAO, pushing the trough axis farther west over the CONUS which is what we need if we want a storm that doesn't just go out to sea.

Quoting 144. vis0:


remember dudes and duddets even if El Nio is heading downward it  was up so high that a FULL 1 C drop still has it as a moderate El Nino and any natural hiccup upward IF El Nino is still above 1.68/2.0 means a lot more UMPH for that mini rise.  BTW could not find any El Modoki write-ups on ricderrforecasting.com  (remember MAYBE modoki can appears as a cross between Nino/Nia though only El Nino Modoki version is officially recorded, one can think of its non nino areas as a La Nina Modoki. [humor]yer welcom ncstorm[humor]) BTW the ricderrforecasting.com  is only available via Hasbro's Lil Internet magik screen.



lmao....viso...always great to see you around....and as for our hasbro magic screen...thank you for your purchase.....you were our first...and well..only customer so far

dear admin,....this is not an advertisement for the hasbro magic screen...available at wallyworld and other fine big box stores.....for only 99.95....nor is it a way to advertise my competitive site...yes folks....just type in ricderrforecast.com...membership is only 5 bucks......LOL
Chick-fil-A makes rare Sunday exception

Unlike many restaurants, Chick-fil-A is known for more than just food: it's also famous for being closed on Sundays.

But in the name of a good cause, some locations in Texas northeast of Dallas turned the lights on Sunday after tornadoes ripped through the state and killed 11 people.

"The locations were not open to the public, but team members from various restaurants in the area did volunteer to prepare and distribute free food to responders and others affected by the tornadoes—serving those in need during this tragic event," said Amanda Hannah, a spokeswoman for the chain, in an email.

Link

Not a post about the politics of Chick-Fil-A, just that me and my search and rescue team. along with civilians in affected areas, have been the recipients of those free food distributions in disasters, and even just prolonged missing person searches. We've gotten food from almost every fast food chain, not just Chick-Fil-A. No one asks them to do it, and they rarely get any publicity for doing so. The food just shows up after they call and find out where it's needed. It's a very welcome thing. No matter how you feel about fast food, a burger or chicken sandwich tastes pretty good after about 24 hours of Red Cross mystery meat sandwiches. :-)
Quoting 151. beell:



New Mexico: "The Land of Entrapment".

btw, it's open now.



lol......and you're really stuck as i10 is closed about mile marker 190......the other day took me 2 hours to drive from las cruces to el paso which is normally a 50 minute trip
Quoting 130. sar2401:

I spent two days in a rest area in January of 2005 near Albuquerque because there was too much snow and ice to go any further east. I barely made it up the hill to the rest area. There were hundreds of trucks squeezed into every square inch of the rest area. I stopped early and knew what was ahead, so I got a space over in the corner where the trucks couldn't easily fit. It would have been much worse I was in the middle of that pack. The rules were no generators or engines after 10 pm. Since the temperature was close to zero, no one obeyed that rule. You can imagine how sleep inducing the sounds of hundreds of trucks idling is. I was lucky that my rig has a 100 pound propane tank and that my generator runs on propane. I was able to shut down the furnace when I recharged the batteries and run my little electric heater to keep things above freezing. This was one time that all the money I had invested in solar panels didn't pay off. I didn't run out of propane, so it could have been worse, but I don't have pleasant memories of I-40 in the winter.
I'm a little confused. You're saying you left Albuquerque eastbound and managed to claw your way up and over Tijeras, but then got stopped at the Moriarty rest area, which sits nearly 35 miles farther east and more than a thousand feet lower than the pass? And there were "hundreds of trucks" at the eastbound Moriarty rest area, though it's a pretty tiny one with designated space for no more than two dozen tractor/trailers, while the westbound one is even smaller? Would it be physically possible to squeeze in "hundreds of trucks", even if those rigs were to fill in every possible square inch of the unpaved dirt? And since New Mexico doesn't have any no-idle or max-idle-time laws, who told you no engines after 10:00pm?

Anyway, given that January 2005 was a mild and mostly dry one in that part of the state, I have to ask: are you certain about the date and/or the location?
Quoting 145. barbamz:



Webcam. Current moon rise seen from Grosser Arber = peak (4775 ft) of Bavarian Forest in southeastern Germany, snowless at present, but this may change in some days. Sure is: difficult times are ahead of the UK on December 30, again:

Storm Frank set to bring more rain
BBC, 8 December 2015 Last updated at 13:28
Warnings have been issued for heavy rain on Wednesday across parts of Northern England including some areas already affected by flooding. Ben Rich has the details.



Good and safe evening/night everyone! Hugs to Radar Dog in case there is thunder, Sar :-)
Cool picture of the moon rise, Barb. I don't know how you stay on top of so much news and find so many interesting links, but it sure is appreciated. Not many blogs can say they have their own international correspondent.

Radar Dog so far is stretched out on the sofa conked out, and displays no apparent nervousness about lightning. Of course, it's also not lightning yet, so that will change. He's good with big squall lines but not so good with discrete cells and these skinny lines. He was sacked out Thursday until about two minutes before I had the tornado close to me. He was up then, and really doing his nervous dance. It was enough to make me check the radar and, sure enough, there was a tornado vortex signature. He needs to work on his algorithms though, so I get a little more warning. :-)
159. beell
Quoting 156. ricderr:




lol......and you're really stuck as i10 is closed about mile marker 190......the other day took me 2 hours to drive from las cruces to el paso which is normally a 50 minute trip


8-10" of snow in El Paso is pretty respectable, ric. I'm jealous! I'm betting you made a decent snowman and a wonderful keepsake to put in the ol' memory bank.

And also...what's with the quote thing?
:P
Quoting 111. hydrus:

Well hello Wash...You have read my winter forecasts before...You will not be disappointed about buying your winter gear at all...:)
We don't have to have snowmeggedon to have a good winter.What was nice about the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were that we had 6-9 inch snow storms that (thanks to the temperatures being in the low 20's and teens) were powdery and easy to shovel (I used a broom most of the time).Now with the storms of 09-2010 the snow was very heavy so a snow blower and or shovel were used instead.(When we used the snow blower from the new 15 inches we got over the already 3 feet of snow it wasn't very sufficient)
Quoting 160. washingtonian115:

We don't have to have snowmeggedon to have a good winter.What was nice about the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were that we had 6-9 inch snow storms that (thanks to the temperatures being in the low 20's and teens) were powdery and easy to shovel (I used a broom most of the time).Now with the storms of 09-2010 the snow was very heavy so a snow blower and or shovel were used instead.(When we used the snow blower from the new 15 inches we got over the already 3 feet of snow it wasn't very sufficient)
Did the very same thing, used the broom.
Quoting 140. Dakster:



I've always wanted to take I-40 as the beltway across the next time I drive across the US. But it seems like I-40 is worse than I-70 thru I-94 - at least in that area of the US.


I did that October, 2004 with both girls, Philadelphia to Irvine, CA. The weather was perfect nearly the whole way across the US, I saved the triptych book I put together before I left (no GPS or travelling smartphone intarwebs.) Wonderful family stories I like to remember on the drive. I think my favorite sightseeing stop was Banderas Crater and the Ice Cave.
Quoting 153. Drakoen:

This afternoon's ECMWF 12z run looks great. Bridging negative AO block. Negative EPO/Postive PNA with the subtropical jet undercutting. West-based negative NAO, pushing the trough axis farther west over the CONUS which is what we need if we want a storm that doesn't just go out to sea.


Things are just getting started, plenty of storms to come January-February. January you know being itself is going to produce a good snow event, and then February doing it's Mystery Big Storm around Valentines Day/Presidents Day, sometimes even in early February too.
7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area

165. beell
Quoting 155. sar2401:



Not a post about the politics of Chick-Fil-A, just that me and my search and rescue team. along with civilians in affected areas, have been the recipients of those free food distributions in disasters, and even just prolonged missing person searches. We've gotten food from almost every fast food chain, not just Chick-Fil-A. No one asks them to do it, and they rarely get any publicity for doing so. The food just shows up after they call and find out where it's needed. It's a very welcome thing. No matter how you feel about fast food, a burger or chicken sandwich tastes pretty good after about 24 hours of Red Cross mystery meat sandwiches. :-)



The 'Waffle House Index': FEMA Impressed By Chain's Disaster Preparedness
huffingtonpost.com 11/01/2011

"...the 62-year-old Southern food chain has a longstanding reputation for staying open during natural disasters. And if a storm is too intense to stay open straight through the worst of it, Waffle House has especially strong protocols for getting back online quickly..."

"...As FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate explained to the Wall Street Journal, "If you get there and the Waffle House is closed? That's really bad. That's where you go to work."
...

And just for fun...



mapsbynik.com
165. beell
Their is not one near D.C for a mere 30 miles.
Quoting 105. hydrus:

Greetings drak...Time to get the salt..The long range CFS has the eastern third of the U.S. being hit repeatedly by winters storms..It looks bad, and since it shows numerous storms, that increases the likelihood of it actually occurring...jmo..
Both two things going to be used by people a lot during that time.
I never knew there were so many offshore Waffle House locations. :)

Edit: Those folks around 33.5 - 33.75 latitude must think they're special!
Owczarz@CalhounTimes.com
Two bodies
have been recovered in separate accidents during recent flooding due to
massive amounts of rain that has drenched Gordon County since last
Monday.

On Saturday, Dec.
26, 64-year-old George Treadaway possibly drove around barricades on
Reeves Station Road, where his car drifted into the flood water. Gordon
County Sheriff's Office, Gordon County Fire and Rescue, and Georgia
Department of Natural Resources began operations to find Treadaway and
dive teams on Sunday, Dec. 27, found Treadaway's car with him still
behind the wheel. The car was pulled from the scene on Monday morning,
Dec. 28.
GCSO and divers from Calhoun Fire
Department were on scene at a lake in the Sonoraville community near the
Bartow County line on Sunday evening, Dec. 27, searching for a man
reported missing in the water.
At 11:08 a.m. on Monday, Dec. 28, Gordon County
Fire and Rescue recovered the body of Robert John Murray, Jr., age 38 of
Calhoun, from flood water on Self Lake Road off of Yarborough Mill Road
in Gordon County. The Gordon County Sheriff's Office will release more information in a press release later Monday afternoon.
Quoting 158. sar2401:
Radar Dog so far is stretched out on the sofa conked out, and displays no apparent nervousness about lightning. Of course, it's also not lightning yet, so that will change. He's good with big squall lines but not so good with discrete cells and these skinny lines. He was sacked out Thursday until about two minutes before I had the tornado close to me. He was up then, and really doing his nervous dance. It was enough to make me check the radar and, sure enough, there was a tornado vortex signature. He needs to work on his algorithms though, so I get a little more warning. :-)


Had I not known Radar Dog was an actual dog (who sounds amazing btw) I would've thought it was a smartphone app. What kind of dog is he/she?


Might have to add "Radar Dog" as an actual feature of "MapMe.io" way down the road as a environmental-type service/layer for real-time updates on environmental dangers.

app info is at beaconsafety.co
Quoting 159. beell:



8-10" of snow in El Paso is pretty respectable, ric. I'm jealous! I'm betting you made a decent snowman and a wonderful keepsake to put in the ol' memory bank.

And also...what's with the quote thing?
:P


yes...i've moved somewhat ito the 21st century and have started using the quote button...i still won't "like" a post though....as for the snow....no snowman...the kids were more interested in snowball fights and snow angels....it was fun though
Now down to 29.35" as low moves over MS River. Looks like it may kick one last set of showers over us, but keep the worst of it to our W. Up to 45, dew pt down to 19? (doubt it, other nearby stations still in 30s/40s), winds switching to S as passes by. Long range keeps us dry except for slight chance on Wed. Good news for rivers. Said MS up 9' since Sat & MO up 11'. Already were w/in a few feet of flood stage before this. (Agrees w/ Bob's chart) Will be 2nd highest peak beating '73, which was highest prior to '93, & Dec '82 (also El Nino) by 6' or so.
Wxrisk now saying possible East Coast Snowstorm Threat for Jan 9, he is saying the key work is possible for right now.
Well, it is snowing again. I think this is the first time this year we are getting snow on top of snow, no thaw. I suppose that winter has finally gotten started here in Sioux Falls. The Big Sioux river seems to be about frozen and the falls at Falls Park are freezing up. (I will have a look at them next week.)

They have lowered the predictions down from 8-12 inches to 6- to 8, so not a bad storm, and the winds are still calm. However, I am not going to take a big chance and will get the Kamiks on along with my Smart Wool a get my 2 mile walk home started. (Three miles if I take the river, and as warm as it is, I might just do that.

Cheers
Qazulight (16 degrees, light snow, light winds out of the north.)(
This is what I mean. A tornado warning just got issued for Bullock and Russell counties for a tornado near Hurtsboro. This storm has a clear TVS for about the last eight minutes. It was long enough for me to call and warn my friend in Hurtsboro that what looked like a tornado was coming before the warning was issued. This is Birmingham under reacting again. Neither of these two counties are included in the current tornado watch either.
177. beell
Quoting 168. StAugustineFL:

I never knew there were so many offshore Waffle House locations. :)

Edit: Those folks around 33.5 - 33.75 latitude must think they're special!


Or maybe this one, Aug!




Author's notes-who has slightly more time on his hands than I do:

Grouping by USGS 1:100,000 quads was an attractive option for this data for a couple of reasons:

"The quads are continuous across the entire USA. There are no gaps, so every Waffle House location falls within one quad.
Quad boundaries are static. They will not have changed if I update the data.
Quads are named for the area they cover, making it easy to discuss particular locations.
At approximately 2392 square miles each, quads are a nice “bucket” size for tabulating this kind of location data meaningfully.
Restaurant addresses were taken from wafflehouse.com and geocoded with services from both Google and MapQuest. Discrepancies were rectified by hand. As a set, the locations are generally accurate but no given restaurant is guaranteed to be correct."

Link
Quoting 102. Drakoen:

GEFS really crashing the AO and has been trending negative with the NAO, and has continued with a forecast for a positive PNA/negative EPO western ridge. Today's CFS monthly forecast illustrating cold anomalies for the bottom half CONUS and ECONUS, backing away from it's previous forecasts the month for a warm anomalies in those regions.




Which means what exactly for Soo Cal?
Quoting 168. StAugustineFL:

I never knew there were so many offshore Waffle House locations. :)

Edit: Those folks around 33.5 - 33.75 latitude must think they're special!

What's more is why is the graph going from right to left? That's not even normal graph logic. Just another indication of the East Coast bias on this site. We have waffle homes out west too, you know.
Quoting 17. kinase1:

Greetings from Houston, where this afternoon it went from summer to winter in about 10 minutes as the front passed through. Probably the most dramatic change in weather I've seen here in many years. Had the a/c on all past week and 20 minutes after the front passed we had to turn the heat on.


It went from 75 degrees and humid to 45 and dry in about 3 hours. At least we didn't get the strong Thunderstorms here but we did get a lot of wind before the front. Funny part is the strongest storms in South Texas were behind the front.....
Interesting storm pattern on this link of the North Atlantic from the wind map.
Notice that the warm air from the 30 to 40 degree latitudes is being thrust right up o the North Pole!

Tomorrow 29th Dec, in 24 hours from now.

Link

Quoting 176. sar2401:

This is what I mean. A tornado warning just got issued for Bullock and Russell counties for a tornado near Hurtsboro. This storm has a clear TVS for about the last eight minutes. It was long enough for me to call and warn my friend in Hurtsboro that what looked like a tornado was coming before the warning was issued. This is Birmingham under reacting again. Neither of these two counties are included in the current tornado watch either.


Not picking on you sar but when watches are issued conditions are favorable for severe conditions in and NEAR the watch area. Hurtsboro is close enough to the watch box for this miscreant!
Quoting 165. beell:




The 'Waffle House Index': FEMA Impressed By Chain's Disaster Preparedness
huffingtonpost.com 11/01/2011

"...the 62-year-old Southern food chain has a longstanding reputation for staying open during natural disasters. And if a storm is too intense to stay open straight through the worst of it, Waffle House has especially strong protocols for getting back online quickly..."

"...As FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate explained to the Wall Street Journal, "If you get there and the Waffle House is closed? That's really bad. That's where you go to work."
...

And just for fun...



mapsbynik.com


None in California.........Say Whaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttttttttttttttt! But you can get organic pesto for your organic sprouts here in Cali! LOL

Out West?
185. beell
Quoting 176. sar2401:

This is what I mean. A tornado warning just got issued for Bullock and Russell counties for a tornado near Hurtsboro. This storm has a clear TVS for about the last eight minutes. It was long enough for me to call and warn my friend in Hurtsboro that what looked like a tornado was coming before the warning was issued. This is Birmingham under reacting again. Neither of these two counties are included in the current tornado watch either.


15 minutes prior to the warning.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / EXTREME W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282131Z - 282200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEOX AND KMXX SHOW A WELL-DEFINED/STRONG COUPLET WITH A SUPERCELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE LINE/ELONGATED COLD POOL FOR THE NEXT HR OR SO. KEOX VAD DATA INDICATE AROUND 250 M2 PER S2 0-2 KM SRH AMIDST A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE. THE LIMITED SPATIAL THREAT WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/28/2015
Quoting 181. PlazaRed:

Interesting storm pattern on this link of the North Atlantic from the wind map.
Notice that the warm air from the 30 to 40 degree latitudes is being thrust right up o the North Pole!

Tomorrow 29th Dec, in 24 hours from now.

Link


Yep..That will increase the chances of a SSW. The polar vort has already started to become perturbed, and will become moreso through January. An eventual split will likely occur late Jan or early February. Winter weather may become severe for a large part of the Eastern U.S.
Quoting 170. CraigsIsland:



Had I not known Radar Dog was an actual dog (who sounds amazing btw) I would've thought it was a smartphone app. What kind of dog is he/she?


Might have to add "Radar Dog" as an actual feature of "MapMe.io" way down the road as a environmental-type service/layer for real-time updates on environmental dangers.

app info is at beaconsafety.co
He is a basset/beagle mix, although more basset than beagle. I've only known him for a little less than four years, when I met his mom, but he's 13 now. His mom, not being weather aware at all, has no idea how long RD has had his weather super powers, but I started noticing it not long after he became my buddy. He gets into stroke out mode when we have thunder and lightning, and he starts doing his nervous dance as far as eight hours ahead of storms getting here. The bigger the incoming system, the further out he seems to be able to sense it. He's not so good with these little guys we've been having lately, but any time he starts doing the nervous dance, I run over and check the radar. I've never seen him dancing without some weather being close, or big. I've read all kinds of theories about this, since RD is apparently not the only dog with super powers, but nothing convincing. All I know is it works, and I sometimes get more warning from him than from Birmingham.
188. beell
Quoting 184. PedleyCA:


Out West?


IHOP?

Nice find, Ped!
Quoting 184. PedleyCA:


Out West?

Eh guess I meant Arizona. Sorry Ca, Or, Wa. You guys really are waffle homeless apparently.
Is Waffle House a Red State Phenomenon?
Quoting 185. beell:



15 minutes prior to the warning.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / EXTREME W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282131Z - 282200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEOX AND KMXX SHOW A WELL-DEFINED/STRONG COUPLET WITH A SUPERCELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE LINE/ELONGATED COLD POOL FOR THE NEXT HR OR SO. KEOX VAD DATA INDICATE AROUND 250 M2 PER S2 0-2 KM SRH AMIDST A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE. THE LIMITED SPATIAL THREAT WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/28/2015
Like I said, the signature was pretty clear on radar. Apparently it was to the SPC as well, but not Birmingham. I might have guessed 15 minutes, but that seemed too long to have a storm showing up on radar as a possible tornado and nothing being done about it. I guess not. The warning lasted all of 11 minutes and has already been cancelled. Tornadoes don't last long down here....
Quoting 184. PedleyCA:
Out West?


The Waffle House is racking up the electoral votes! ;)

Looking forward to a pattern shift here come New Years. Temps should average 20-30 degrees cooler than present between daytime highs and nighttime lows.
Quoting 187. sar2401:

He is a basset/beagle mix, although more basset than beagle. I've only known him for a little less than four years, when I met his mom, but he's 13 now. His mom, not being weather aware at all, has no idea how long RD has had his weather super powers, but I started noticing it not long after he became my buddy. He gets into stroke out mode when we have thunder and lightning, and he starts doing his nervous dance as far as eight hours ahead of storms getting here. The bigger the incoming system, the further out he seems to be able to sense it. He's not so good with these little guys we've been having lately, but any time he starts doing the nervous dance, I run over and check the radar. I've never seen him dancing without some weather being close, or big. I've read all kinds of theories about this, since RD is apparently not the only dog with super powers, but nothing convincing. All I know is it works, and I sometimes get more warning from him than from Birmingham.


haha that's awesome! I'm jealous now lol. I have a Boston Terrier and she's not very good with warning about weather threats - very good with other things though. Then again - I live in CA and not very much aside from a little Thunder and Lightning. There was a small tornado about ten miles where I live on the 23rd - those are unusual and nothing like a squall line or whatever you guys out there get.

I was looking around the Wunderground Personal Weather Stations netork - that NetAtmo product line looks very cool/interesting.
194. beell
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Like I said, the signature was pretty clear on radar. Apparently it was to the SPC as well, but not Birmingham. I might have guessed 15 minutes, but that seemed too long to have a storm showing up on radar as a possible tornado and nothing being done about it. I guess not. The warning lasted all of 11 minutes and has already been cancelled. Tornadoes don't last long down here....


Two or three more little dimples on base velocity indicating some QLCS circulations farther to the south embedded in the line. You may get a couple more warnings. They usually don't last long,

Quoting 189. Mediarologist:


Eh guess I meant Arizona. Sorry Ca, Or, Wa. You guys really are waffle homeless apparently.


I am not waffle person, but as beell pointed out there is IHOP. I got that map here: Link
Quoting 183. HurricaneHunterJoe:



None in California.........Say Whaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttttttttttttttt! But you can get organic pesto for your organic sprouts! LOL
Didn't know anything about Waffle House until I arrived in Alabama. There's nothing organic there, although they do list the calories of each dish on the menu. The steak and eggs is about 1400 calories as long as you don't get the hash browns covered in country gravy. That tacks on another 250 calories. I think a lot of the people don't quite get the calorie thing, and think it's a competition to see who comes out with the highest number.
Dang, all this typing has now made me hungry for a waffle...and maybe a steak. 8^)
A win for the gfs? Huge WWB and probably the last roar of this El nino.
Quoting 194. beell:



Two or three more little dimples on base velocity indicating some QLCS circulations farther to the south embedded in the line. You may get a couple more warnings, They usually don't last long,


Looks like another couplet has formed near Crawford, W of Columbus. No warning though.
Been to a waffle house twice and once was for a Portlight meeting....

Certainly nothing there on my current diet restrictions now...
ECMWF wasn't showing much of a WWB a week ago but the gfs did show this.
Quoting 192. StAugustineFL:



The Waffle House is racking up the electoral votes! ;)

Looking forward to a pattern shift here come New Years. Temps should average 20-30 degrees cooler then present between daytime highs and nighttime lows.


Me to! Looking forward to the Pacific Jet undercutting the Rex Block thus shooting storms into Central California.( If forecast verifies ). I could take 3-4 months of that. Northern Cal for a week,Central Cal for a week and Soo Cal for a week and keep it rotating for 4 months. I can ask anyway.........right? No need for huge storms and the rotation would lessen flooding problems.
202. beell
Quoting 199. Dakster:

Been to a waffle house twice and once was for a Portlight meeting....

Certainly nothing there on my current diet restrictions now...


Side salad, no dressing....
Made it above the forecast high to 48 (so far) & are catching the last bit of rain as low move on NE, which should start melting some of the ice/sleet? that was showing on radar N of I-74. Pressure on the way back up (29.4"). Off to house to check how much over 9" we totaled. Quite the system for late Dec.!
Quoting 200. Gearsts:

ECMWF wasn't showing much of a WWB a week ago but the gfs did show this.



I'm sorry WWB? Something about wind? or water? I forget. Help!
Quoting 182. StAugustineFL:



Not picking on you sar but when watches are issued conditions are favorable for severe conditions in and NEAR the watch area. Hurtsboro is close enough to the watch box for this miscreant!
As long as you define about 80 miles away as close, then I'll agree with you. The counties were not included in the watch area, and I commented at the time that it's rare to get storms to the south and not have them affect us. Just from general climatology, those counties should have been in the watch area. However, the counties that were included are all in the Mobile or Tallahassee coverage area, but not Birmingham. Probably a coincidence.
Quoting 203. PedleyCA:



Side salad, no dressing....
Yeah, they serve about three of those a day. :-)

Hey Joe, just started sprinkling here.

WWB=Westerly Wind Burst
Quoting 207. sar2401:

Yeah, they serve about three of those a day. :-)


That many? I don't remember seeing that on the menu, must be new.

I se I-40 in NM is finally open, but it also looks treacherous in TX and OK though.
Quoting 178. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Which means what exactly for Soo Cal?


With the subtropical jet undercutting the positive PNA ridge you will still potentially receive rainfall.
Joe Breaks into Happy Dance
All this talk of big SoCal rains early next week from the LONG RANGE forecasts once again haha! I'm guessing a dying front with .10 accumulation again...quoting the just updated weather discussion from Los Angeles, "At this point though, looking at the ensembles, standardized anomalies, and atmospheric river tools for early next week nothing is really indicating anything more than an average winter storm at best." El Ni NO!
Quoting 202. beell:


Those are far enough west of me that I don't have anything to worry about...yet. Radar Dog is under the desk quivering, so he thinks something is up, even though we've had no lighting and hardly any rain. That area from about Enterprise to Hurtsboro is own mini-tornado alley. If we're going to get a tornado, it's likely to be over that a way, down the road a piece.
Quoting 196. sar2401:

Didn't know anything about Waffle House until I arrived in Alabama. There's nothing organic there, although they do list the calories of each dish on the menu. The steak and eggs is about 1400 calories as long as you don't get the hash browns covered in country gravy. That tacks on another 250 calories. I think a lot of the people don't quite get the calorie thing, and think it's a competition to see who comes out with the highest number.
Dang, all this typing has now made me hungry for a waffle...and maybe a steak. 8^)


And people wonder why the South is the capital of obesity in the States. All these outdoors people, but SO MUCH FOOD.
Quoting 210. Drakoen:



With the subtropical jet undercutting the positive PNA ridge you will still potentially receive rainfall.

This will actually be the strengthening southern branch of the Polar Jet, with the northern branch being stranded and weakened. A classic opening for the main event El Nino pattern across California. It is possible to have a tropical jet phase with this pattern, in which case we would get truly epic rains. Don't see that happening in the upcoming circumstances.
Quoting 203. PedleyCA:



Side salad, no dressing....


T Bone Steak, Triple Hash Browns, 4 Eggs Scrambled, Everything smothered in Country Gravy...........Folks with ICD.......OK.........If not Bring the pads!
I wonder when we will have our first official snow threat.GFS seems to like multiple storms coming up the coast starting later next week.
Quoting 209. Dakster:



That many? I don't remember seeing that on the menu, must be new.

I se I-40 in NM is finally open, but it also looks treacherous in TX and OK though.
They even have a picture of the side salad on the menu now. They don't actually list it on the menu, although I imagine management figures those with a craving for rabbit food can probably order it.

I-40 might be open, but I'll bet it's not much fun to drive on just yet.
Quoting 184. PedleyCA:


Out West?
There's been a lot of northward expansion on this map. I also do not remember 18 Waffle House locations in AZ ....

I also bet one will see most locations outside GA/NC/SC/AL/FL on / just off interstate highways [not just the I's but the US's].

On of my faves .... just off the I-40 / I-85 junction in Greensboro, NC.

There is a Waffle House in Davie, FL. Dunno if they ever put one in Miami-Dade.

Quoting 196. sar2401:

Didn't know anything about Waffle House until I arrived in Alabama. There's nothing organic there, although they do list the calories of each dish on the menu. The steak and eggs is about 1400 calories as long as you don't get the hash browns covered in country gravy. That tacks on another 250 calories. I think a lot of the people don't quite get the calorie thing, and think it's a competition to see who comes out with the highest number.
Dang, all this typing has now made me hungry for a waffle...and maybe a steak. 8^)
Hash brown all the way. Pecan waffle. Go empty, drink coffee. Leave smiling .... LOL ...

I'd love to do the Waffle House tour of the US one summer, but then I'd have to stop in Birmingham .... LOL ....

Quoting 205. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I'm sorry WWB? Something about wind? or water? I forget. Help!

It's an anomalous area of westerly winds at the low latitudes where the easterly trades are usual. It's characteristic during El Nino.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 210. Drakoen:



With the subtropical jet undercutting the positive PNA ridge you will still potentially receive rainfall.


I hate the words could, may, possibly, POTENTIALLY in any type message from the local NWS folks. It means they are hemming and hawwing around and cannot figure it out.......and we usually end up being disappointed with the rainfall result. Seen it too many times over the years.
Quoting 148. SkiDestructor:

Well! It has not snowed at my house YET but that will change in the next 12 hours....Goliath is certainly living up to its name. Another 36 hours or so before it clears the US...

What's up next?


Plenty..specially for the eastern half..there will be a little break before it starts.
Quoting 183. HurricaneHunterJoe:



None in California.........Say Whaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttttttttttttttt! But you can get organic pesto for your organic sprouts here in Cali! LOL

I enjoy the seasonal fresh squeezed blood orange juice from our produce palace every other day. Reasonable price too since its local and they use the "too ugly to sell" oranges in their machine. Nothing like sweet red OJ in the AM.

Waffles are okay once in a long while. Homemade, so I know what I put in the mix. Maple syrup or strawberries and whipped cream, sometimes Pacific blueberries from our backyard.
219. BahaHurican
Dunno if they ever put one in Miami-Dade.


Closest one is Fort Lauderdale or Key Largo.
Quoting 193. CraigsIsland:



haha that's awesome! I'm jealous now lol. I have a Boston Terrier and she's not very good with warning about weather threats - very good with other things though. Then again - I live in CA and not very much aside from a little Thunder and Lightning. There was a small tornado about ten miles where I live on the 23rd - those are unusual and nothing like a squall line or whatever you guys out there get.

I was looking around the Wunderground Personal Weather Stations netork - that NetAtmo product line looks very cool/interesting.
He's a cool old dog. He's getting enough gray hair that he looks like a raccoon head on. Still very spry for his age though. You should see him jump to catch treats. The Indians should have as a good a shortstop as him. :-)

The NetAtmo things do look very cool. What they lack is a wind measuring device. They are working on an ultrasonic unit. It will be quite an advance if they can produce it for less than a Tesla price. One of the main reason I have a station is for wind, and I'm not interested in hardware from two different companies just to get wind measurements. The total price without wind measurement isn't much less than a Vantage Vue, which is knows quantity in terms of accuracy and durability.
Quoting 219. BahaHurican:

Hash brown all the way. Pecan waffle. Go empty, drink coffee. Leave smiling .... LOL ...

I'd love to do the Waffle House tour of the US one summer, but then I'd have to stop in Birmingham .... LOL ....


You guys are killing me. I'm going to have to get a waffle for dinner now, since it's only a two minute drive. You know you're an up and coming town when Waffle House opens a second location. We have one. It's usually packed though. If we could get some people to move here, we might get a second one and relieve some of the congestion. Traffic's not so bad generally, but the WH parking lot can get real backed up. :-)
Quoting 214. Astrometeor:



And people wonder why the South is the capital of obesity in the States. All these outdoors people, but SO MUCH FOOD.


Since I've been on the farm, I've wondered if these kinds of diets have their origins in a time when intestinal worms were more a regular part of life.
Southeast of Charlotte, NC an hour ago:

230. vis0
zip 10016. NYC tiny ice pellets (redundant?) hitting eastern facing windows (APT only faces East & South) none on south facing windows. Its  not much,  ~5 to 6  per 5 secs for the last 10 mins. An hour ago ~6PM a rate of 1 per 15 secs was falling.

An hour ago winds at street level where from the N, ~40 feet up from the ESE now it seems both have northerly components.
231. vis0

Quoting 123. sar2401:

I do remember that "zilly" post, Vis. We didn't get a hurricane and blizzard, but we sure got the tornadoes followed by blizzards. It's not all that unusual to get tornadoes followed by snow, but to get the combination of tornadoes, floods, and blizzards during Christmas week seems pretty far from the norm to me.
Someone who actually has all those numbers can tell us better than just my admittedly faulty memory.

I'm not concerned for underground drainage systems made of concrete. They are generally deep enough that they don't freeze, and water moves through it at a pretty good good clip. What does concern me is the thousands of miles of wood stave pipe that's still common in the Northeast, including NYC. Much of this pipe was laid in the mid to late nineteenth century. A lot of it was laid when engineering and construction standards are nowhere near as high as they are today. A lot of it is too shallow, and the slope isn't consistent enough to stop ponding, especially at pipe junctions. Wood actually isn't a bad material for piping, since the right woods swell slightly as they get saturated, and leak less than a lot of cast iron or concrete piping. The coming infrastructure problems are from a combination of just plain age and the lesser engineering standards of the time. Like the Mars Rover, they've already performed far beyond their normal life expectancy. They will start failing all at once, and it's going to be almost as expensive as another Mars mission to fix them all.
i STAND UP AND APPLAUD THE MARS ROVER WORKERS  ALL WORKERS including those that kept the place clean.

WOODEN pipes you are 99% correct in the last year 4 bust mainly due to "shotty?" construction NEXT to them, go figure SOME (more than you think) of today's "modern" workers ruining work done 100+ yrs ago not just cheap labor its that uncaring mind has no pride in their work, very sad.

BTW ice pellets at zip 10016 NYC, now at 15 per 5secs after a lull of 6 mins.
232. ariot
Quoting 228. nonblanche:



Since I've been on the farm, I've wondered if these kinds of diets have their origins in a time when intestinal worms were more a regular part of life.


More likely, most went from working sunrise to sunset (farm labor or resource extraction) or 8-plus hour shifts in the few southern factories to sedentary jobs or labor with energy slaves (tractors, etc) in one generation. That's not fast enough for cultural diets to change, and the food is rather addictive.

Same shift is seen in some pockets of developing countries with rapid modernization.
Last week's St. Louis rains were among some of the worst I have seen in 20 years. The only thing close was when the remnants of Hurricane Ike (which hit Galveston, TX) came across the mid-west on Sept 14, 2008. A good friend's house which is next to a major creek in north St. Louis County, close to the airport, was inundated when the massive rainfall caused the creek to over-top its banks. He and his wife lost everything in their basement.

There have been some comparisons of this rain to some of the rains and melt off which led to the flood of 1993. That flood is one of those events that brings memories back to mid-westerners, much like the Kennedy assassination, it's one of those, "where were you when the flood of '93 go started in our neck of the woods", kind of moments.