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Holiday Heat is On in Europe, Australia, Eastern U.S.

By: Bob Henson 5:36 PM GMT on December 21, 2015

The year 2015 is is just days away from nabbing the top spot as the world’s warmest in more than a century of recordkeeping. As if to emphasize the point, the year is wrapping up with a blaze of December heat records around the globe. Some of the most exceptional numbers are being tallied over eastern North America, Europe, and Australia, which all ran quite warm in November as well. To be sure, some individual days have been standouts--and there are more of those to come--but the truly striking aspect of this month’s heat is its tenaciousness. We remain in the firm grip of a strong El Niño, as well a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation that’s keeping Arctic air on a tight leash at high latitudes.


Figure 1. Departures from average temperature across the contiguous U.S. for the period Dec. 1 – Dec. 19, 2015. Image credit: NWS Climate Prediction Center.

Eastern U.S.: Humidity, warmth, and thunder for the holidays
It’s been an absurdly mild December over most of the United States. Figure 1 shows above-average readings across nearly all of the country. The biggest departures can be seen over the Upper Midwest. However, those smaller departures you see over the Northeast are actually more climatologically significant, because the climate there doesn’t tend to vary as sharply from day to day and week to week. Moreover, chilly air arriving in the Midwest over the next few days should help tamp down the departures there, but not so much in the East. Amazingly, New York’s Central Park has only had one freeze so far, if you can call it that--a paltry 32°F on November 24--and there may be no subfreezing temperatures to come before 2016 arrives. New York is just one of the nation’s big eastern cities likely to streamroll longstanding records for their all-time warmest December. Among the candidates:



These records might not be in such jeopardy if an Arctic air mass were approaching before year’s end. Instead, another slug of unseasonably mild, humid air will be streaming from the tropics across the southern and eastern U.S. later this week. Often when such an air mass approaches in winter, it will glide above an entrenched surface layer of cold air. But with snow cover nil this year, and preexisting Arctic air absent, the tropical surge has a better chance of mixing all the way to the surface. There could be severe weather across the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and dew points approaching or topping 60°F will make it feel oddly humid as far north as Boston by Christmas Eve. For millions of people across the southern and eastern U.S., Christmas Eve and/or Christmas Day will be the warmest in living memory, and in some cases the warmest in more than a century of recordkeeping (see this weather.com roundup for more details). Even with the warmth, it may not be the sunniest of holidays, as the rich moisture will swaddle many places in dank clouds and fog.

Even Mount Washington, NH--notorious for its extreme winter weather--may eclipse its warmest December temperature on record (47°F), if the WU forecast of 49°F on Christmas Eve is correct.


Figure 2. Potential record highs on Christmas Day—Friday, December 25, 2015. Image credit: weather.com.

This “warm wave” will extend far into eastern Canada. Temperatures may crawl above freezing at the southern tip of Hudson Bay by Wednesday, and relative mildness should envelop most of the Canadian Maritimes. The town of Churchill Falls, Labrador, has an average daily low of -15°F this time of year; on Christmas Eve, it may struggle to get below 26°F. Montreal and Ottawa are likely to smash records for their warmest Christmas Eve with readings well above 50°F, according to The Weather Network’s “Christmas Eve Blowtorch” outlook. Montreal occasionally gets a non-snowy holiday, but nearby ski areas are struggling because it won’t even be cold enough to make snow.

On the other side of the pond . . .
Across the North Atlantic, the warmth has been equally impressive. Three European nations with records of 150 years or longer--Finland, Sweden, and Estonia--have set or tied all-time national heat records for the month of December in recent days. Earth’s longest-running climate archive, the Central England Temperature Record, has a chance at the warmest December in its 357-year history. The CET average for the month to date (12/1 – 12/19) is 9.9°C, a phenomenal 5.1°C above the 1961-1990 mean and well above the warmest December on record (8.1°C in 1934 and 1974). London Heathrow has made it above 10°C (50°F) every day thus far in December, and that streak may continue through month’s end. Gardeners in Cornwall, England, have reported spring-flowering camellias in bloom months ahead of schedule.

Several other European nations are on track for a record-warm December, including the Netherlands and Germany. New all-time highs for December have been set in a number of capital cities, including Stockholm, Sweden (13.2°C); Riga, Latvia (11.8°C); Tallin, Estonia (11.7°C); and Helsinki, Finland (10.8°C). Nearly 100 stations across Germany have seen their highest daily minima for any December, said Michael Theusner (Klimahaus-Bremerhaven) in an email. “Even though not many all-time highs [for December] were broken, the duration of the warmth and its magnitude are exceptional,” he added. Germany’s monthly anomaly to date--5.4°C above average--is far beyond the peaks of around 4.0°C observed in 1934 and 1974.

Further south, a weekend burst of downslope southerly winds (the famed “foehn”) brought temperatures on Sunday up to balmy values along the northern slopes of the Alps and Pyrenees. These included 17.7°C (63.9°C) at Hohenpeissenberg, Germany and 16.3°C (61.3°F) at Brand, Austria, both at elevations of more than 3200 feet. The town of Pau, France, basked in 25.4°C (77.7°F) warmth. (Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for these statistics.) Ski resorts across the Alps are bracing for continued mildness throughout the holidays.


Figure 3. These images, taken exactly one year apart--0920 local time on Dec. 21, 2014 (top) and 2015 (bottom)--show the stark contrast in snow conditions at the ski resort of Grossarltal in central Austria. Image credit: ZAMG, courtesy Maximiliano Herrera.

For a truly toasty Christmas, head Down Under
If it seems just a bit too mild to be wrapping presents or roasting a holiday dinner, consider the hardy souls of Port Augusta, Australia (“Gateway to the Outback”). They had to deal with record December temperatures that vaulted to 47.2°C (117.0°F) on Saturday. For the first time in any December, the city of Adelaide saw four consecutive days of highs topping 40°C (104°F). The torrid air swept into New Zealand on Monday: the South Island city of Dunedin hit a scorching 34.6°C (94.3°F), more than 4°F above its prior December record of 32.2°C. Readings should tumble back to more seasonable levels later this week across Australia, with predicted highs for Christmas Day mostly in the 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit.

Jeff Masters will be back later this week with his definitive roundup of this year’s Category 5 tropical cyclones around the world. In the meantime, if you’ve never heard the voice of NOAA Weather Radio saluting the season, you’re in for an old-school automated treat. The winter solstice begins on Monday night at 11:48 pm EST. Happy holidays, everyone!

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Coping with pre-holiday (heat) stress in Adelaide, Australia, on December 19, 2015, the final day of an unprecedented four-day stretch of December days reaching 40°C (104°F). Image credit: Morne de Klerk/Getty Images.





Extreme Weather Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Holiday Heat is on'...


Ann Arbor, Michigan
42 F
Light Rain
Thanks for the Updates...
Quoting 1. Patrap:

The Holiday Heat is on'...


Ann Arbor, Michigan
42 F
Light Rain



Same here - 47F light rain ... long range more and more rain : Dayton Ohio
Thanks Mr.Henson :) I'm dreaming of a bare christmas
A few hundred miles to SW of Ann Arbor, 53 w/ rain beginning to clear out. At least they've dropped our Christmas highs to 50s instead of 65 they had last week, 63 on 23rd though, then 50s into New Year's Eve. Don't ever remember a Dec this consistently warm in S C IL, believe we have only had 20 for a low twice and overall lows in 20s probably just barely in double digits.
It's been slushing for the last 3 hours, and the snowpack on the roof is getting soaked like a good French Toast. If Santa were to land on my house right now, his sleigh might get stuck in the muck.
Truckee, CA Forecast
Every latitude except surrounding Antarctica and (maybe) 40n to 60n looks to be above average. The whole Indian Ocean and most of the Pacific and the Atlantic from -30 to +40n are above average. Dang!
Thank you for this globally very heart-warming Christmas blog, Bob!
Cosy holidays for you as well!


Temperatures in Europe the next two weeks.
Well, we are warming the Earths oceans at the rate of 4 Hiroshima size Atomic Bombs worth of Heat per second.

Thats gonna reap wads of grief downstream in time,GLOBALLY.


Hey, but it was pretty durned cold the last two days, so there!

- Some OK senator guy
Here in the Brooksville area, the projected high for Christmas Day is 89 degrees, which is absurd, but for the entire year worldwide, the weather has been quite unusual in various ways, so I won't rule out a "June in December" 25th day of the month.
Thanks Mr Henson, winter looks like it will arrive after New Years here in the Great Lakes.

Temperatures may crawl above freezing at the southern tip of Hudson Bay by Wednesday,

This is shaping up to be a disastrous winter in Hudson Bay as far as the ice extent and volume are concerned.
Over the next two or three days, the Sierra & NorCal snowpack will likely hit "average" for the date, in terms of snow water content.

86% average to date: CA Snow Pack Conditions 12/21/2015 compared to 57% average on this date last year.
Our average Hi for Christmas day is 61 and we'll be near 80 for a Hi, sure won't feel like Christmas!
66F Right here in North Texas, loving the fact i can wear shorts right now. Funny how we were dealing with the ice last year at the same time.
#15


I'm sure the Earth is jus going thru a "phase"....

U know how them teenage Planets in Habitable Zones around Yellow Stars are.

: )




Quoting 9. Patrap:

Well, we are warming the Earths oceans at the rate of 4 Hiroshima size Atomic Bombs worth of Heat per second.

Thats gonna reap wads of grief downstream in time,GLOBALLY.




LOL
Thanks, Bob. Great blog entry. I tell you all that I was very happy to see mid-60's and breezy here in Coral Springs this past Saturday morning! We took advantage and opened up the house for outside air. The puppies enjoyed it too; they were super happy running around the yard that morning.
Quoting 18. blueyedbiker:


LOL


Thanx for the quote up dere.

Not quite the shortest rebuttal though, but a solid "#2.".....,no pun intended,.




4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second

Posted on 1 July 2013 by John Cook, dana1981

UPDATE 27 Mar 2014: I just discovered that my talk at the Climate Action Summit was posted on YouTube:


This data comes from a paper lead authored by Australian climate scientist John Church that tallies up the heat accumulating in the oceans, warming the land and atmosphere and melting the ice:


Reading matters, as well as Science.


It's what we do here.


Try the Egg Nogg, Nea did a fine job with it.



Sipppp.......

Gouda/NL, 10.3 C (five or six above climate), near gale/30 kts sustained gusting 35 kts across the parking lot here. Just another set of fronts.
December shaping up to annihilate the old record (1974) with a standard deviation, that is half a degree above a normal April, and I'm watching for the miracle average minimum temps will arrive above that record of 1974.
Last winter was mild throughout though not extreme, '12-13 was #2 mildest and by far most frostless in the record, but this December is something else again.
Here in NE Fla....

Current Conditions Station reported 2 minutes ago: 78.2 F
Feels Like 80 F
6.0 mph Wind from SE
Gusts 12.0 mph
Dew Point: 67 F
Humidity: 68%

I like eggnog.....

But it sure seems weird to drink it while barefoot.
Walking in the Humid Wunderland'


Quoting 22. aquak9:

Here in NE Fla....

Current Conditions Station reported 2 minutes ago: 78.2 F
Feels Like 80 F
6.0 mph Wind from SE
Gusts 12.0 mph
Dew Point: 67 F
Humidity: 68%

I like eggnog.....

But it sure seems weird to drink it while barefoot.



Yeah, down here in S.W. Florida we're looking at mid to upper 80s for the next 7 days with water temperatures at the beach in the mid 70s.
There will be a lot of people enjoying the beach this year on Christmas.

Thanks for the update Mr Henson.

It's going to be an interesting several days in Soo Cal, less than 1/10" to almost 3" within a 50 mile wide area.....def gonna be an orographic type rain huh?

A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE NW...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH FORECAST OVER AND WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH
A FEW SHORTWAVES...WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG 85O MB WINDS WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND MAY GENERATE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND NEW TOTALS ARE BELOW.

Almost time to start my tomato plants for spring. I depart from established practice and seed in the last days of December and then grow the plants cool in my basement all winter. Normal practice here is to seed the first few days of March. If we do have an early spring like 2012 I want to be ready for it and I also believe plants that are exposed to a lot of cool sunny weather such as we get in late March and April, will have higher carbohydrate reserves and grow faster once the weather really does warm. With seasonal weather this recipe produces a transplant only about two weeks advanced for the season in early May. For tomatoes cool means very slow growth.




Quoting 24. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, down here in S.W. Florida we're looking at mid to upper 80s for the next 7 days with water temperatures at the beach in the mid 70s.
There will be a lot of people enjoying the beach this year on Christmas.




I remember low 70s water temperatures off of Estero Island during long December warm spells. Mid 70s is amazing for this time of year!
Quoting 22. aquak9:

Here in NE Fla....

Current Conditions Station reported 2 minutes ago: 78.2 F
Feels Like 80 F
6.0 mph Wind from SE
Gusts 12.0 mph
Dew Point: 67 F
Humidity: 68%

I like eggnog.....

But it sure seems weird to drink it while barefoot.



Yeah really... I guess for a white XMAS you gotta go to the beach...

I do remember Florida snowmen, being made out of beach sand.

The really sad part is that at my familiy's house in Alaska, there isn't enough snow for a snowman either.
Forecast setup for the weekend after Christmas in the mid Atlantic looks like a potential wedge could set up with upper 40s or low 50s rather than a whole lot warmer. As I commented on whitewabbit's comment section when it's 50F in a wedge in midwinter it gives pause about how warm it will/could be out of the wedge.
For the clear up, I use both Meteorological and Astronomical Seasons, so all in all not really that of a big issue.
Still looking like once we enter early January, things will start to become more interesting.
Quoting 27. georgevandenberghe:



I remember low 70s water temperatures off of Estero Island during long December warm spells. Mid 70s is amazing for this time of year!


Mid 70's is the best we can do in the summer in San Diego!
Quoting 31. Climate175:

Still looking like once we enter early January, things will start to become more interesting.


How so?
Quoting 33. Dakster:



How so?
There are signals to change to a more colder pattern, and not spring-like weather, with storminess being around.
Quoting 34. Climate175:

There are signals to change to a more colder pattern, and not spring-like weather, with storminess being around.

What "signals"?
Quoting 34. Climate175:

There are signals to change to a more colder pattern, and not spring-like weather, with storminess being around.


Still waiting for FALL-LIKE weather to hit South Florida... Winter would be even better, but I am not holding my breath for that.
Quoting 35. ACSeattle:


What "signals"?
MJO entering a favorable state for snow and cold weather in early January.
Quoting 28. Dakster:



Yeah really... I guess for a white XMAS you gotta go to the beach...

I do remember Florida snowmen, being made out of beach sand.

The really sad part is that at my familiy's house in Alaska, there isn't enough snow for a snowman either.

Baby, its WARM outside.....
Quoting 38. capeflorida:





There you go... Perfect....

Hello All. The comments all seem to be on a similar page for once instead of bickering over fictional minutia related to global warming. Here in Southern Wisconsin we finally had a spell of weather that turned the grass from a very spring-like green to green-ish. It was colder the last couple days of November but we had snow to protect the ground. I gotta say I am impressed with the money I am saving not getting my car washed because there's nothing but salt out there and the money I am saving over heating costs and the amount of time I have been able to take my son outside for a walk without bundling him up to infinity. OK, so no snow on Christmas is a little bit blah, but no shoveling on a cruddy driveway that needs to be re-asphalted rocks. Merry Christmas to all, including the climate deniers I have scolded, and I hope the holidays are what you hoped them to be.
Looking 240hrs out to the end of the year on GEOS-5 the little blob of cold purple air that swept thru way north looks like it's about to get replaced by more warmer air..
Amazing what ~3C of warming in the equatorial Pacific, combined with another degree or so of warming of the entire atmosphere, will do with our climate. And imagine what another 2-3C of warming the entire atmosphere will do to it.

We're expecting mid-upper 60s here in southern New England for Christmas eve. Maybe 70. Just typical December weather.
Short term looks a bit severe..


Sea water temperature in the central gulf as warm as 82 degrees,the warmest Ive seen.
Quoting 45. victoria780:

Sea water temperature in the central gulf as warm as 82 degrees,the warmest Ive seen.


Almost Bath water temp. I wonder just how big that dead zone will be this coming summer. Scary.
Quoting 25. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Mr Henson.

It's going to be an interesting several days in Soo Cal, less than 1/10" to almost 3" within a 50 mile wide area.....def gonna be an orographic type rain huh?

A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE NW...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH FORECAST OVER AND WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH
A FEW SHORTWAVES...WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG 85O MB WINDS WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND MAY GENERATE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND NEW TOTALS ARE BELOW.





Ah yes, and I remember well, the poof they often get when they hit the Coachella Valley, just like it's predicting! Bah!
Quoting 30. Climate175:

For the clear up, I use both Meteorological and Astronomical Seasons, so all in all not really that of a big issue.

Actually I go by Biological Winter.
When I don't see any more ants.. then it's Winter.



Mele Kalikimaka
Quoting 49. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Mele Kalikimaka
For sure!
Quoting 48. Mediarologist:


Actually I go by Biological Winter.
When I don't see any more ants.. then it's Winter.


I'll declare Winter when it's too cold to wear shorts. I'm not sure when that will be this season.

When I was in Boerne, Texas a couple weeks ago it got down to 31 degrees there. For breakfast, I decided to walk to a near by restaurant wearing only shorts and a sweat shirt (I thought I'd be fine because it was a short distance).

But that 31 degrees along with a wind chill down in the 20s was painful. I seriously underestimated my tolerance to cold weather. I had forgotten what being cold (real cold) felt like.




53. N3EG
Barometer spiked downward at 29.18 here in Longview WA - 50+ mph winds - must have been really bad in Astoria west of us on the coast. This one will make the news...power lines down all over.
Thanks Mr. Henson. In-Laws coming up to Tallahassee from Ft. Lauderdale for Christmas on Thursday. With temps in Tally in the low 80's on Christmas Day, it will be like they never left South Florida except for the Oaks Trees and gently rolling hills (instead of Palm Trees and flat ground)......................................
Xmas in NOLA 1989

11-14F and under freezing for 72 hours or more.



Current radar





Quoting 48. Mediarologist:


Actually I go by Biological Winter.
When I don't see any more ants.. then it's Winter.


No wonder it is never winter in Florida. I can't remember ever not seeing ants here.

Ants don't seem to exist in Alaska... Which explains why it is 9 months of winter and 3 months of poor sledding.
Our contractor was held up in constant rain this summer, so our new lawn was finally rolled and prepped in October. When my husband planted it it that late, I was sure it would freeze back but hey... we already had the seed, might as well try. It is now 5 or 6 inches in the places where the deer don't graze, and neatly trimmed where they do. Except for the little holes from their hooves, it looks very spring-y and nice out there :)
Quoting 57. Dakster:



No wonder it is never winter in Florida. I can't remember ever not seeing ants here.

Ants don't seem to exist in Alaska... Which explains why it is 9 months of winter and 3 months of poor sledding.


We say that here, about Garrett Co, MD. By this time last year, everyone was running snow mobiles on Deep Creek Lake and you could drive a truck out over the lake in most spots. Not a sign of ice yet this year.
60. vis0
Here in my small town of NYc where a tree can receive more than 8-10 hrs of sunshine ...

(usually in NYC that means they are in some type of park, as Madison Square Park, neighborhood mini parks)

... they are REALLY blooming. If the trees are blocked by structures from receiving no more than 7 hrs of sunshine they are either bare of brownish with a few very  dry green leaves.
This Observation is in Manhattan, NYc from 34st to 23rd st 2nd ave to 8th ave. ~4sq miles in area.

Strong influences of El Nio + aGW. one is riding the other ...which?, in time will figure that out.
Quoting 55. hydrus:




Those northern Sierra totals bode well for the water supply.
84  
WFUS54 KLCH 212256  
TORLCH  
LAC079-115-212330-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0027.151221T2256Z-151221T2330Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
456 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CST  
 
* AT 455 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PITKIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON AND SOUTHWESTERN RAPIDES PARISHES...INCLUDING  
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...CALCASIEU AND UNION HILL.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3089 9298 3101 9303 3113 9268 3096 9262  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 254DEG 22KT 3095 9292  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...0.00IN  
 
 
 
RUA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

As we had an interesting conversation about drones in here some days earlier (when doc recommended a drone as Christmas purchase), here is an interesting new article:

2016 will be the dawn of the drone age
Mashable, an hour ago
If 2015 had anything to say about drones, it's this: They're coming.
Whether the topic was military drones operating overseas, or examining how to regulate the growing presence of private and commercial drones in U.S., drones emerged as the unavoidable topic about future tech. But, as recent events have proven, that future is "now."
The deliberations took longer than anyone might have guessed, but in December, just before the end of the year, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), along with a high-level advisory panel, finally introduced rules governing the use of drones in the U.S. And the rules are strict. ...


A balmy "good night" from Germany with temps in the double digits in the western and northern parts, including my place near Frankfurt, with up to 12C=54F. And it's half an hour past midnight, dooh!
Let It Snow........Let It Snow..........Let It Snow!

Public Alerts

Winter Storm Warning in South Central California
Active for next 1 day · National Weather Service
This alert has been updated.
Posted 1 hour ago
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 4 PM PST Tuesday above 7000 feet.

Accumulations: around 12 inches to two feet in Yosemite National Park, elsewhere around 8 to 15 inches.
Timing: continuing near Yosemite this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, spreading South this evening. Most of the snow will occur tonight through Tuesday morning.
Winds: gusting up to 50 mph over the higher elevations.
Impacts: Travel in the higher elevations will be difficult due to poor visibility and snow covered roads.
Recommended actions
A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only Travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight. Food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
PGE outages up to 20,000 now. ( Portland ).
Quoting 61. TimSoCal:



Those northern Sierra totals bode well for the water supply.
Even the pattern is looking decent..South California may not be as fortunate with there drought..Long range models look crazy, even a couple of the 168 hour runs...
Does anyone else have a problem with the NOAA weather radio voice mangling the pronunciation of local places? I noticed that even in the NWS Christmas carol, which I imagine they paid extra attention to in terms of getting words right, stumbles over "apparel". The voice has gotten better over the years, but it still needs improvement. As an example, a lot of our little burgs have a name that ends in "ville". If the voice doesn't get the first part of the name right, it's hard to tell where a tornado located near "Grmatsingville" really is, especially if you're not a local that can guess. The voice on my Android phone gets these names right, even when I speak them. Seems like the NWS should be able to take advantage of that technology.

I am getting in line for my .25" of rain. .68" so far for the water year(since Oct 1 ).
Quoting 64. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Let It Snow........Let It Snow..........Let It Snow!

Public Alerts

Winter Storm Warning in South Central California
Active for next 1 day · National Weather Service
This alert has been updated.
Posted 1 hour ago
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 4 PM PST Tuesday above 7000 feet.

Accumulations: around 12 inches to two feet in Yosemite National Park, elsewhere around 8 to 15 inches.
Timing: continuing near Yosemite this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, spreading South this evening. Most of the snow will occur tonight through Tuesday morning.
Winds: gusting up to 50 mph over the higher elevations.
Impacts: Travel in the higher elevations will be difficult due to poor visibility and snow covered roads.
Recommended actions
A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only Travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight. Food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
Anyone wanting to make it over the HIll on I-80 had better get an early start tomorrow. This is going to be a wet and windy storm for the valleys and a lot of snow above 6,000 to 7,000 feet. Looks like there will be a break from about 6:00 am tomorrow morning until about noon. After that, no one without a SnowCat is going to make it east to Grandma's by Christmas. This is going to be the biggest Christmas storm in a number of years in the Sierra, and it's coming at just the wrong time for travelers.
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:


I am getting in line for my .25" of rain. .68" so far for the water year(since Oct 1 ).
Looks like Joe must have made out pretty good from that rain. More is headed your way over the next five days or so. Your water year may actually hit two inches before New Year's Eve. One can at least hope.
Quoting 66. sar2401:

I notice the SPC has pulled the "Slight" (now being called cat 2, something I haven't seen before) risk area back from the MS/AL/FL Panhandle to the central TX/SE OK area for Tuesday.

Christmas Eve, which one of the forecasters at the SPC persists in calling "Christmas evening" and making me think he's talking about Friday evening,




When was the MS/AL/FL Panhandle ever in a "SLIGHT" Risk"?
Which Convective Outlook(s) persisted in calling "Christmas Eve", "Christmas Evening"?
Quoting 68. sar2401:

Does anyone else have a problem with the NOAA weather radio voice mangling the pronunciation of local places?

Listened to this NOAA radio the first time due to the link in the entry. Got the impression it would fit to your place very good, Sar.
Sing:
"Clouds are never rain here bringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa
Lightnings let Sar's dog still cringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa ..."
Quoting 71. sar2401:

Looks like Joe must have made out pretty good from that rain. More is headed your way over the next five days or so. Your water year may actually hit two inches before New Year's Eve. One can at least hope.


This is forecast rain totals. I live just to the right of that 1.57 forecast for Palomar Mountain....forecasing .50-1.0 for moi......hope it comes to fruition.
Good evening everybody

It's 74 and feeling like 72....a wind chill ?? on the island tonight. Christmas winds have arrived so no fishing for us for a while!

For those following my last posting, after delivery of the Xmas gifts to the family, giving the excuse to the little believers that Santa needed help this year, my new name is "Mrs. Elf". It was wonderful and my Christmas is off to a great start!

*tosses a candy cane to Joe as a peace offering*

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 73. barbamz:


Listened to this NOAA radio the first time due to the link in the entry. Got the impression it would fit to your place very good, Sar.
Sing:
"Clouds are never rain here bringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa
Lightnings let Sar's dog still cringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa ..."


OMG! Are you kidding me? That is the best NOAA can do? Pray for us all!
Quoting 63. barbamz:

As we had an interesting conversation about drones in here some days earlier (when doc recommended a drone as Christmas purchase), here is an interesting new article:

2016 will be the dawn of the drone age
Mashable, an hour ago
If 2015 had anything to say about drones, it's this: They're coming.
Whether the topic was military drones operating overseas, or examining how to regulate the growing presence of private and commercial drones in U.S., drones emerged as the unavoidable topic about future tech. But, as recent events have proven, that future is "now."
The deliberations took longer than anyone might have guessed, but in December, just before the end of the year, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), along with a high-level advisory panel, finally introduced rules governing the use of drones in the U.S. And the rules are strict. ...

I'm pretty confident almost no one who owns a drone now, or gets one for Christmas, is going to pay their $6.00 to register their drone before February 19...or ever. This reminds me of the CB radio craze of 35 years ago. You were supposed to pay some money and get a license from the the FCC before you could transmit or you'd face a fine and jail time. Almost no one did, and the FCC finally threw up their hands a couple of years later and made the CB frequencies an unlicensed service. Consumer grade drones will probably end up on the same path. The real challenge is the regulation and technology of the large drones Amazon and a bunch of other companies want to use. The big risk is having a drone unknowingly enter the flight path of a medical, rescue, or police helicopter. They fly all time below 400 feet in service, which is where the drones will be flying. A ten pound drone hitting the rotors of a Jet Ranger is a big problem. There's no pilot in a drone keeping the "See and Be Seen" rule, and Amazon can't afford a pilot sitting in front of a TV screen looking at the input from a drone camera when they are talking about having thousands of those things. It's a drone flying a preprogammed path to your house with no two way input that makes them dangerous. Nevertheless, drones aren't going away, so how to use them safely is going to be a big challenge in the years and decades to come.
Nails Lindy with a spitter!
Quoting 74. HurricaneHunterJoe:



This is forecast rain totals. I live just to the right of that 1.57 forecast for Palomar Mountain....forecasing .50-1.0 for moi......hope it comes to fruition.
Ah, I see. And here I thought you already got those totals. I hope you really do get the rain though. It looks like a decent storm coming in for all the mountains of California.
Quoting 73. barbamz:


Listened to this NOAA radio the first time due to the link in the entry. Got the impression it would fit to your place very good, Sar.
Sing:
"Clouds are never rain here bringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa
Lightnings let Sar's dog still cringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa ..."
LOL. I never even thought of the "La la la" part and Eufaula, but you're right, it can do that part well. :-) Unfortunately, it does look like the next couple of day will not be happy ones for Radar Dog. So far, he's lounging around lazily with no indication of what's ahead.
Quoting 75. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good evening everybody

It's 74 and feeling like 72....a wind chill ?? on the island tonight. Christmas winds have arrived so no fishing for us for a while!

For those following my last posting, after delivery of the Xmas gifts to the family, giving the excuse to the little believers that Santa needed help this year, my new name is "Mrs. Elf". It was wonderful and my Christmas is off to a great start!

*tosses a candy cane to Joe as a peace offering*

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy


Glad things are going well Mrs Elf! All ok here! Have a Merry Christmas!
A high impact severe weather outbreak is becoming increasingly likely across Mississippi and Alabama on Wednesday afternoon, with the potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes. Although the SPC only has a 15% Slight per this morning's update, expect big changes with tonight's update.
Quoting 77. sar2401:

I'm pretty confident almost no one who owns a drone now, or gets one for Christmas, is going to pay their $6.00 to register their drone before February 19...or ever. This reminds me of the CB radio craze of 35 years ago. You were supposed to pay some money and get a license from the the FCC before you could transmit or you'd face a fine and jail time. Almost no one did, and the FCC finally threw up their hands a couple of years later and made the CB frequencies an unlicensed service. Consumer grade drones will probably end up on the same path. The real challenge is the regulation and technology of the large drones Amazon and a bunch of other companies want to use. The big risk is having a drone unknowingly enter the flight path of a medical, rescue, or police helicopter. They fly all time below 400 feet in service, which is where the drones will be flying. A ten pound drone hitting the rotors of a Jet Ranger is a big problem. There's no pilot in a drone keeping the "Seen and Be Seen" rule, and Amazon can't afford a pilot sitting in front of a TV screen looking at the input from a drone camera when they are talking about having thousands of those things. It's a drone flying a preprogammed path to your house with no two way input that makes them dangerous. Nevertheless, drones aren't going away, so how to use them safely is going to be a big challenge in the years and decades to come.


Long post, sorta droned on and on.

Challenges for sure. I don't think I've been more than 500 feet up in our Police Helo... And if a small bird can (and has) taken down helo's. I can only imagine what a drone would do.

I wonder with these automated drones how they respond to weather events. Everything works wonders when the weather is good.... But what happens when it isn't good...
Quoting 79. sar2401:

Ah, I see. And here I thought you already got those totals. I hope you really do get the rain though. It looks like a decent storm coming in for all the mountains of California.


There must be a strong westerly jet with winds getting down close to the surface to get such low rain totals at the coast and 5-10 times that in the mountains. Reminds me of a snowstorm about 10 years ago in Warner Springs. Talk about upslope/orographic flow, Hot Springs Mountain, the tallest in San Diego County at 6,535 elevation is just 2 miles east of Warner Springs, we got 17" of snow over 2-3 days at an elevation of 3,000 ft. A mere 2-3 miles either side of the mountain the totals dwindled to a mere few inches of snow.

I know this also happens a lot to the east-west running Transverse Range of Mountains from San Bernadino to the Pacific Ocean. Strong southerly flow from a strong cold front or negative tilt trof can dump copious amounts of water on this area leading to massive flooding in Los Angeles. This also happens to the mountainous area just north of Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz.
gfs is advertising cooler temps for south florida by january 6th.hope it pans out lol


Link

disclaimer:model data is not mine but it belongs to levi cowain at tropical tidbits all rights reserved
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:


I am getting in line for my .25" of rain. .68" so far for the water year(since Oct 1 ).
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:


I am getting in line for my .25" of rain. .68" so far for the water year(since Oct 1 ).


When did noaa decide to change the start of the water year from 1 July to 1 Oct.? Kind of throws off the great start that san Diego had with our 3+ inches of rain during the summer and early fall. :)
SpaceX Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral is scheduled at 8:33 p.m. EST. The launch window extends for only 1 minute.

Special bonus event - SpaceX will be testing reentry and landing of the booster very close to the tip of the cape. Booster reentry will occur some time after 8 minutes from liftoff, landing 10 minutes after liftoff. Some time in that interval the booster may generate a sonic boom audible in the general area of the cape.

Live coverage: First launch of upgraded Falcon 9 set for Monday | Spaceflight Now
Quoting 72. beell:



When was the MS/AL/FL Panhandle ever in a "SLIGHT" Risk"?
Which Convective Outlook(s) persisted in calling "Christmas Eve", "Christmas Evening"?
The Christmas evening was in one of the outlooks by Darrow either on the 19th or 20th. I don't see it now, so maybe it has been corrected. My mistake on the "Slight" category. It's the marginal that got adjusted some over this way and the "Slight" that got added in the outlook today. Have you ever heard of "Slight" being called "Cat 2" before? Darrow seems to be to one doing that as well.



Quoting 87. LowerCal:

SpaceX Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral is scheduled at 8:33 p.m. EST. The launch window extends for only 1 minute.

Special bonus event - SpaceX will be testing reentry and landing of the booster very close to the tip of the cape. Booster reentry will occur some time after 8 minutes from liftoff, landing 10 minutes after liftoff. Some time in that interval the booster may generate a sonic boom audible in the general area of the cape.

Live coverage: First launch of upgraded Falcon 9 set for Monday | Spaceflight Now
It launched and seems okay so far.
Bah, still no snow (rain tho) and temps generally in the upper 30's to upper 40's (37 right now).
On a different note, can anyone recommend a good book on fly fishing in the Florida Keys? Will be on my own, no guides (no money lol) will have an 8 wgt rod. Have hooked a couple of baby tarpon on a previous trip as well as spooked a few bonefish.
SpaceX nailed the booster landing! Space is that much more accessible now.
Quoting 89. sar2401:

It launched and seems okay so far.

Launched and landed. That was awesome!! Huge step forward this evening in space travel.
Quoting 92. LowerCal:

SpaceX nailed the landing! Space is that much more accessible now.


YEAH!!!!! Awesome.

I was so rooting for SpaceX to nail it.
All 11 Orbcomm satellites have been successfully deployed in orbit!
That launch was amazing. Wow.. for them to land the first stage at Cape Canaveral!

Hope I got a decent pic..
Quoting 86. Milton1025:



When did noaa decide to change the start of the water year from 1 July to 1 Oct.? Kind of throws off the great start that san Diego had with our 3 inches of rain during the summer and early fall. :)


Annual Rainfall - Lindbergh Field
Share This
Based on Water Year (October-September)
A water year is defined as the calendar year that begins October 1 and ends September 30.

Water Year
(Oct-Sep) Actual
Rainfall (inches) Normal Rainfall (inches) % of
Normal
1965 8.81 10.41 85
1966 14.76 10.41 142
1967 10.86 10.41 104
1968 7.86 10.41 76
1969 11.48 10.41 110
1970 6.33 10.41 61
1971 8.03 10.41 77
1972 6.12 10.41 59
1973 10.99 10.41 106
1974 6.59 10.41 63
1975 10.64 10.41 102
1976 10.14 10.41 97
1977 9.18 10.41 88
1978 17.30 10.41 166
1979 14.93 10.41 143
1980 15.62 10.41 150
1981 8.13 10.41 78
1982 11.85 10.41 114
1983 18.49 10.41 178
1984 5.37 10.41 52
1985 9.60 10.41 92
1986 14.95 10.41 144
1987 9.30 10.41 89
1988 12.44 10.41 120
1989 5.88 10.41 56
1990 7.62 10.41 73
1991 12.31 9.83 125
1992 12.48 9.90 126
1993 18.26 9.90 184
1994 9.93 9.90 100
1995 17.13 9.90 173
1996 5.18 9.90 52
1997 7.73 9.90 78
1998 17.16 9.90 173
1999 6.50 9.90 66
2000 5.75 9.90 58
2001 8.57 10.68 80
2002 3.30 10.77 31
2003 10.31 10.77 96
2004 5.18 10.77 48
2005 22.60 10.77 210
2006 5.36 10.77 50
2007 3.85 10.77 36
2008 7.20 10.77 67
2009 9.15 10.77
85

2010 10.6 10.77 98
2011 12.70 10.34 123
2012 7.90 10.34 76
2013 6.55 10.34 63
2014 5.09 10.34 49
2015 11.91 10.34 115

More this year than the previous 2 combined.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

Does anyone else have a problem with the NOAA weather radio voice mangling the pronunciation of local places? I noticed that even in the NWS Christmas carol, which I imagine they paid extra attention to in terms of getting words right, stumbles over "apparel". The voice has gotten better over the years, but it still needs improvement. As an example, a lot of our little burgs have a name that ends in "ville". If the voice doesn't get the first part of the name right, it's hard to tell where a tornado located near "Grmatsingville" really is, especially if you're not a local that can guess. The voice on my Android phone gets these names right, even when I speak them. Seems like the NWS should be able to take advantage of that technology.


Part of the problem in the area where you and I live is that many of the place names are phonetic spellings of the names the Native Americans had for the locale when the first European came on the scene. Since the Native Americans (for the most part) had no written language there were lots of transcription errors. The place names were quite local, too. That's why there are 2 Withlachoochee ("Crooked River") Rivers in Florida.
Quoting 83. Dakster:



Long post, sorta droned on and on.

Challenges for sure. I don't think I've been more than 500 feet up in our Police Helo... And if a small bird can (and has) taken down helo's. I can only imagine what a drone would do.

I wonder with these automated drones how they respond to weather events. Everything works wonders when the weather is good.... But what happens when it isn't good...
LOL. I caught that one....

Since we were medical and law, we'd fly from right on the deck to 4,000 or so for weather and terrain avoidance. A lot of our time was 500 feet or less. It doesn't take much hitting a helo in the right place to bring it down. Dallas PD had a bird strike in March that would have been really bad if the Coot, which isn't even a large bird, hit a couple of feet above the windshield and got in the rotor. I don't know how many police and medical helicopters we have in this country, but it must be in the hundreds, if not thousands. Weather and terrain are big enough problems without having to look for an Amazon drone in your flight path.
SpaceX Launch from my front yard.. It went up thru clouds. Was blocked by a flying light shower from the SE for a minute. Cloud cleared, Falcon went near straight up & gradually got smaller. Saw the first stage do a burn on the way back down. Wasn't that loud of a launch with a short sound.


& landing..


Quoting 95. LowerCal:

All 11 Orbcomm satellites have been successfully deployed in orbit!
Great flight and recovery. SpaceX needed a home run, and they surely got one tonight. Nice Christmas present for the people that have worked hard on this mission.
Quoting 55. hydrus:




hydrus, what's the temperature going to be on New Years eve in the US?
Quoting 86. Milton1025:



When did noaa decide to change the start of the water year from 1 July to 1 Oct.? Kind of throws off the great start that san Diego had with our 3+ inches of rain during the summer and early fall. :)


Not sure about the change, but the water year dates come from the USGS. If there was a change, it was probably to get both agencies data on the same interval for consistency.
Quoting 98. Catherdr:

Part of the problem in the area where you and I live is that many of the place names are phonetic spellings of the names the Native Americans had for the locale when the first European came on the scene. Since the Native Americans (for the most part) had no written language there were lots of transcription errors. The place names were quite local, too. That's why there are 2 Withlachoochee ("Crooked River") Rivers in Florida.

I think the NWS must have spent some time "training" the computer voice with those strangely spelled place names. It gets things like "Chattahoochee" but stumbles over more common words and place names. It seems that different stations have different voices as well. I'm in a location, and have an antenna high enough, that i pick stations from Alabama, Georgia, and the Panhandle. The Blakely, Georgia station on 162.525 MHz is the responsibility of the Tallahassee office. it has a voice that sounds like it's on speed. It's like trying to read a long, run on sentence when you listen. The Columbus, Georgia station on 162,400 MHz is programmed by the Atlanta office. Their guy sounds like he just got out of bed and needs some coffee. There are times when I find myself unconsciously doing the speed up gesture with my hand listening.......to.......that....... station. :-) It seems like all the offices should be using the same voice, but I suppose there's a reason why they don't.
Quoting 104. Astrometeor:



Not sure about the change, but the water year dates come from the USGS. If there was a change, it was probably to get both agencies data on the same interval for consistency.
I think there's a rainfall year, which starts July 1, and the water year, which starts October 1. I'm probably wrong though. :-)
Quoting 86. Milton1025:



When did noaa decide to change the start of the water year from 1 July to 1 Oct.? Kind of throws off the great start that san Diego had with our 3+ inches of rain during the summer and early fall. :)

In California, the "rainfall year" begins July 1st, the "water year", or run-off year, begins October 1st. I believe this is designed to start the year at the lowest point of the annual curve. You would think they would be the same, but then you need to remember about all the snow melt. I'm pretty sure it's different in other states, like back east where October 1st is not the lowest stream run-off of the year. Anyone in PA or MA or ME know?
Quoting 96. Skyepony:

That launch was amazing. Wow.. for them to land the first stage at Cape Canaveral!

Hope I got a decent pic..
The most amazing thing to me is that SpaceX is a privately funded company, and most of the employees are recent college graduates in fields like aeronautical engineering and computer programming. They are young enough that they don't know what can't be done, and those are exactly the kind of people Musk wanted The entire operation is run on a relative shoestring as well. NASA must be shaking their heads in wonder at what happened tonight.
Quoting 108. sar2401:

The most amazing thing to me is that SpaceX is a privately funded company, and most of the employees are recent college graduates in fields like aeronautical engineering and computer programming. They are young enough that they don't know what can't be done, and those are exactly the kind of people Musk wanted The entire operation is run on a relative shoestring as well. NASA must be shaking their heads in wonder at what happened tonight.


Yes... And I love SpaceX for that. People that think out of the box and that there is no problem that they can't overcome, rather than an little hiccup is an un moveable mountain.
Hmmmm. ..... Impressive ....

Quoting 108. sar2401:

The most amazing thing to me is that SpaceX is a privately funded company, and most of the employees are recent college graduates in fields like aeronautical engineering and computer programming. They are young enough that they don't know what can't be done, and those are exactly the kind of people Musk wanted The entire operation is run on a relative shoestring as well. NASA must be shaking their heads in wonder at what happened tonight.

Not at all, everyone is celebrating, including on twitter & the ISS... NASA has started and tested a recoverable first stage for launching much more weight, much higher & has learned some about trying to pull that off. It's good to see the commercial aspect perfecting things like this while preforming the lower orbit fight aspects. NASA over sees what SpaceX is doing & gives support to issues that have come up.. Overall this is a historical moment for the United States Space Program.
Latest forecast rain amounts for Soo Cal

Quoting 31. Climate175:

Still looking like once we enter early January, things will start to become more interesting.
I hope by "interesting" you mean cooler-not colder, I don't want to be greedy or anything- in the SE... Maybe all this heat will make some people actually believe that global warming is a serious issue. It seems that every winter for the past few years when we in NE Fl would have temps in the 20's which is not unusual here, I would hear many derogatory comments directed towards those of us who believe in man-induced global warming. So, even though we have been cheated out of more seasonal temps thus far maybe more people that don't believe will begin to at least consider the possibility.
Quoting 109. Dakster:



Yes... And I love SpaceX for that. People that think out of the box and that there is no problem that they can't overcome, rather than an little hiccup is an un moveable mountain.

Boxes?! We don't need no stinking boxes!

http://www.auburnmedia.com/wordpress/wp-content/u ploads/2007/01/03-21-06_alfonso-bedoya.jpg


Quoting 110. BahaHurican:

Hmmmm. ..... Impressive ....


It looks way more impressive on that image than it is on the ground. I've had 0.03" so far. The main moisture stream is to the west of me, as usual, so places Like Montgomery are going to a lot more rain than me from this batch. Things improve in terms of rain on Wednesday and Thursday, but the chances for severe storms also increase. If the convection can stay mostly offshore during this period our chances for severe decrease. If there's no convection offshore or down in the Panhandle, we could be in trouble. The hydro forecast is for 5 to 9 inches of rain by Christmas Day. We've been dry enough, and the rain should be spread out enough, that we avoid serious flooding. It will at least be something interesting to watch compared sunny and warm with dense fog overnight.
The 0z NAM is a dangerous run across Mississippi, with the potential for a full-fledged tornado outbreak (including significant to violent tornadoes). It's a little on the aggressive side compared to the GFS, but both are bad news.

These CAPE values are typical for March or April, not December.

Quoting 115. sar2401:

It looks way more impressive on that image than it is on the ground. I've had 0.03" so far. The main moisture stream is to the west of me, as usual, so places Like Montgomery are going to a lot more rain than me from this batch. Things improve in terms of rain on Wednesday and Thursday, but the chances for severe storms also increase. If the convection can stay mostly offshore during this period our chances for severe decrease. If there's no convection offshore or down in the Panhandle, we could be in trouble. The hydro forecast is for 5 to 9 inches of rain by Christmas Day. We've been dry enough, and the rain should be spread out enough, that we avoid serious flooding. It will at least be something interesting to watch compared sunny and warm with dense fog overnight.
I'm impressed to see that much of a rain shield this week. If this keeps together well enough to back up the ridge in our area, we may be in for another rainy weekend.
Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A high impact severe weather outbreak is becoming increasingly likely across Mississippi and Alabama on Wednesday afternoon, with the potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes. Although the SPC only has a 15% Slight per this morning's update, expect big changes with tonight's update.
Yes, I'm getting a lot more concerned now than at the same time yesterday. It looks like the cold front is going to stall over Oklahoma Tuesday night and then just drift east and west along what's going to become an occluded stationary front. That will send wave after wave of disturbances down through the Deep South. If we don't get disruptive convection along the coast, and if we get any significant clearing on Wednesday, this could be a bad outbreak of storms. There's also nothing to really change the situation until a week from now, so there could be multiple rounds of severe weather and the threat of significant flooding. We'll see what the SPC has to say on their next update, but this is not getting me in the Christmas spirit.
Quoting 117. BahaHurican:

I'm impressed to see that much of a rain shield this week. If this keeps together well enough to back up the ridge in our area, we may be in for another rainy weekend.
That ridge looks too strong for anything much to get to you this weekend. The centers of low pressure are going to be headed off to Canada again so there's just nothing organized to head your way. Looks like a new low and front get here next Tuesday, and that might be strong and progressive enough to give you rain next Wednesday or so. Of course, all of this is way too far away to say anything with certainty. We still don't have decent model agreement for two days out let alone eight or nine days. The one thing I can say with certainty is don't put your summer clothes away yet. :-)
120. vis0

Quoting 9. Patrap:

Well, we are warming the Earths oceans at the rate of 4 Hiroshima size Atomic Bombs worth of Heat per second.

Thats gonna reap wads of grief downstream in time,GLOBALLY.



or course as it fills in GLOBALLY, that means the hit or miss LOCALLY will become nIMBY** ...constantly.

Here in NYC the kids that peeked into Mom & Dads closet and saw the Xmas gifts (& a few skeletons) BEFORE they should've will have a cover-up excuse as to why they are sweating as Mom asks "Timmy, wha da you think Santa got ya fer Christmas?".
The Excuse? Its 73°F . BTW The Snowman's sneauxballs are dripping (i said dripping not dr°º----)
Apology to ^Patrap for Sneaux and ^washi115 as i probably took one of her double - entendres.

(for those that wonder "^"?. It's an old way (used on yahoo & on Excite dot com looong ago...2000AD) of me letting new members know the word after the "^" means that is a members name.)
----footnotes---------
**This is mainly for those that keep posting "well its cold over here,
there" but cannot take in the obvious, that the GLOBE is warming EVEN
with the locally cold outbreaks the aGW $keptics$ post of OR even if the
GLOBE has 1 or 2 "cooler" years out of 22 years.
Quoting 27. georgevandenberghe:



I remember low 70s water temperatures off of Estero Island during long December warm spells. Mid 70s is amazing for this time of year!
Water is 72 in Naples and cools to 66 in Clearwater. The weekend cool snap and east winds cooled us a bit but it won't last long. Mid to upper 80's with southerly flow will easily warm the shelf water up 5 degrees by mid next week. Definitely the warmest for the longest period that I can remember for this time of year. Link (water temps)

We had tinges of red tide the past week but it has been luckily unnoticeable because of the east wind.

Red Tide Status (December 18, 2015)
Based on the most recent available satellite images and analysis of water samples, blooms of Karenia brevis, the Florida red tide organism, persist along Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin counties in Northwest Florida and Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee, and Collier counties in Southwest Florida.


Quoting 120. vis0:


or course as it fills in GLOBALLY, that means the hit or miss LOCALLY will become nIMBY** ...constantly.

Here in NYC the kids that peeked into Mom & Dads closet and saw the Xmas gifts (& a few skeletons) BEFORE they should've will have a cover-up excuse as to why they are sweating as Mom asks "Timmy, wha da you think Santa got ya fer Christmas?".
The Excuse? Its 73°F . BTW The Snowman's sneauxballs are dripping (i said dripping not dr°º----)
Apology to ^Patrap for Sneaux and ^washi115 as i probably took one of her double - entendres.

(for those that wonder "^"?. It's an old way (used on yahoo & on Excite dot com looong ago...2000AD) of me letting new members know the word after the "^" means that is a members name.)
----footnotes---------
**This is mainly for those that keep posting "well its cold over here,
there" but cannot take in the obvious, that the GLOBE is warming EVEN
with the locally cold outbreaks the aGW $keptics$ post of OR even if the
GLOBE has 1 or 2 "cooler" years out of 22 years.



I have always missed talkexcite! used to play backgammon, battleship, yahtzee etc with my brother and others, with the little 'gestures' to make it even more funny!
Quoting 107. RedwoodCoast:


In California, the "rainfall year" begins July 1st, the "water year", or run-off year, begins October 1st. I believe this is designed to start the year at the lowest point of the annual curve. You would think they would be the same, but then you need to remember about all the snow melt. I'm pretty sure it's different in other states, like back east where October 1st is not the lowest stream run-off of the year. Anyone in PA or MA or ME know?


I want to say you're correct on the differences and dates. And I think they are also the same nationwide. At least the water year, since that comes from the USGS with no specifics mentioned with regards to California. I tried googling the answers, but no dice.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

Does anyone else have a problem with the NOAA weather radio voice mangling the pronunciation of local places? I noticed that even in the NWS Christmas carol, which I imagine they paid extra attention to in terms of getting words right, stumbles over "apparel". The voice has gotten better over the years, but it still needs improvement. As an example, a lot of our little burgs have a name that ends in "ville". If the voice doesn't get the first part of the name right, it's hard to tell where a tornado located near "Grmatsingville" really is, especially if you're not a local that can guess. The voice on my Android phone gets these names right, even when I speak them. Seems like the NWS should be able to take advantage of that technology.



Well the English language, I'm sure you know already anyway, has so many words from other languages. And even within English speaking places, by ways of pronunciation. I get very annoyed these days, at Brits making a big deal about my 'natural' American (or Californian) pronunciation of places here (or things sometimes). But, it's def not my fault, many place names here have silent consonants when spoken by Brits, that make no sense :P So, probably a lot depends on who hired the voice and who told them how to say it?! From being in the UK, I think the American accent (aside from southern accents) are greatly influenced by Irish. Southern accents, may have been greatly influenced by Scottish accents (or possibly Black Country). And then a load of others inbetween to make up the gaps! But place names like Grmatsingville, would certainly be pronounced differently from someone from the locale, than by someone from NY or CA. You must be asking hypothetically though surely, knowing you on here?! :D
125. vis0

Quoting 63. barbamz:

As we had an interesting conversation about drones in here some days earlier (when doc recommended a drone as Christmas purchase), here is an interesting new article:

2016 will be the dawn of the drone age
Mashable, an hour ago
If 2015 had anything to say about drones, it's this: They're coming.
Whether the topic was military drones operating overseas, or examining how to regulate the growing presence of private and commercial drones in U.S., drones emerged as the unavoidable topic about future tech. But, as recent events have proven, that future is "now."
The deliberations took longer than anyone might have guessed, but in December, just before the end of the year, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), along with a high-level advisory panel, finally introduced rules governing the use of drones in the U.S. And the rules are strict. ...


A balmy "good night" from Germany with temps in the double digits in the western and northern parts, including my place near Frankfurt, with up to 12C=54F. And it's half an hour past midnight, dooh!


Quoting 73. barbamz:


Listened to this NOAA radio the first time due to the link in the entry. Got the impression it would fit to your place very good, Sar.
Sing:
"Clouds are never rain here bringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa
Lightnings let Sar's dog still cringing, in: Eufalalaaaa, Eufalalaaa ..."
oh man this is my stop ...oh wait... WHEW in playing the audio i thought i was in a NYC subway car (1980s) and thought the announcement was for "New Utrecht Avenue". : - P.     So THAT'S where the overstock of NYC SUBWAY microphone/speaker systems went to?
126. vis0

Quoting 124. mitthbevnuruodo:



Well the English language, I'm sure you know already anyway, has so many words from other languages. And even within English speaking places, by ways of pronunciation. I get very annoyed these days, at Brits making a big deal about my 'natural' American (or Californian) pronunciation of places here (or things sometimes). But, it's def not my fault, many place names here have silent consonants when spoken by Brits, that make no sense :P So, probably a lot depends on who hired the voice and who told them how to say it?! From being in the UK, I think the American accent (aside from southern accents) are greatly influenced by Irish. Southern accents, may have been greatly influenced by Scottish accents (or possibly Black Country). And then a load of others inbetween to make up the gaps! But place names like Grmatsingville, would certainly be pronounced differently from someone from the locale, than by someone from NY or CA. You must be asking hypothetically though surely, knowing you on here?! :D
"Plused" your comment .  You forgot one more reason. Today's eWorld advances words that are not grammatically correct. Therefore we have the uneducated or non-educated "taught" English by the uncaring "have to have everything within 100 character & emoticon" social sites.
ADD to that those that read those quick messages are not exercising their brain's area that holds the correct meanings to words therefore we are developing the lazy brain era (ignorant era).

For youngins::
Plused yer commnt but ya fergot one more reason, as with me not well edumicated in Inglish. ...There a in my soup.
Quoting 103. trunkmonkey:



hydrus, what's the temperature going to be on New Years eve in the US?
Hello TM..To far away, but winter will start to show itself. Make no mistake, its coming.


k
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 am CST Tuesday Dec 22 2015


Valid 231200z - 241200z


..there is an enh risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the middle-south
and Tennessee Valley...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the enh from parts
of the lower Great Lakes region to the central Gulf Coast...


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the slight from parts
of the lower Great Lakes region to the central Gulf Coast...


...
The potential for severe thunderstorms will extend from the central
Gulf Coast to the lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is
forecast from portions of the middle-south region to the Tennessee
Valley...where tornadoes...some possibly significant...along with
damaging winds and hail will be possible.


...


Within a belt of broadly cyclonic middle-level flow covering much of
the western two-thirds of the Continental U.S....a shortwave trough is forecast to
quickly progress from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes
region. As this occurs...a surface cyclone will develop northeastward from the
central Great Plains to Lake Superior...with a strong low level jet in the warm
sector attendant to the surface cyclone. This will encourage inland
fluxes of Gulf-modified moisture...with a broad corridor of 60s surface
dewpoints becoming established across the southeastern quarter of the Continental U.S.
Extending as far north as the Ohio Valley. The western extent of the Richer
moisture will be marked by a boundary extending southwestward from the
aforementioned surface low to S Texas.


..cntrl Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley...


As the broad warm/moist sector becomes established from portions of
the Great Lakes region to the central Gulf Coast and coincides with
ample deep shear...a long-duration/spatially extensive severe risk will
exist through the d2/Wednesday period. Multiple corridors of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be likely across the warm sector...focused in a variety
of regimes. DCVA preceding the shortwave trough and related
destabilization will enhance thunderstorm activity from parts of the middle-MS
valley to portions of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region...where buoyancy will be relatively marginal.
Meanwhile...ample low-level moisture characterized by Lower/Middle
70s surface dewpoints currently resides off the Gulf Coast. Given
anticipated northward transport of the rich moisture...at least isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible southward to the Gulf Coast through the period.


The overlap of stronger deep ascent peripheral to the shortwave
trough...and MLCAPE of 500-1250 j/kg aided by surface dewpoints around
63-66f...is forecast to exist from parts of the lower MS valley to
the Tennessee Valley and vicinity during peak heating. With at least
pockets of insolation supporting steepening low-level lapse rates
across this area...and an influx of modestly steep middle-level lapse
rates...diurnal supercell development will be more likely in this
region. This will be aided by 50-60 knots of deep shear oriented with
at least some orthogonal component to the surface boundary. With 60-70
knots of 700 mb flow above 45-55 knots of 850 mb flow...low-level shear will be
adequate for tornadoes...some potentially significant. Damaging wind
gusts and hail may also accompany this activity. Severe-thunderstorm potential
will be more isolated farther S toward the Gulf Coast as deep ascent
will be more lacking...though stronger instability will be aided by
Richer low-level moisture in proximity to the coast.


The severe thunderstorm potential -- including risk for tornadoes and damaging
winds -- will spread eastward/east-northeastward across the risk areas through Wednesday
night. Severe thunderstorm potential may last well into the overnight hours
from the Tennessee Valley southward...where nocturnal gains in mlcinh will be
limited by the returning low-level moisture.


.Cohen.. 12/22/2015
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
402 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 AM EST/400 AM CST/

* AT 402 AM EST /302 AM CST/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHIPLEY TO 8
MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANAMA CITY...LYNN HAVEN...PANAMA CITY BEACH...CALLAWAY...
BLOUNTSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...MEXICO BEACH...HILAND PARK...STONEMILL
CREEK...TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE...CHATTAHOOCHEE...PARKER...
WEWAHITCHKA...SNEADS...GRAND RIDGE...ALTHA...ALFORD...SCOTTS
FERRY...CYPRESS AND MOOSE POND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&
Dave Petley's landslide blog: 22 December 2015
The Shenzhen, Guangdong landslide: a massive flowslide in construction waste

With good charts and the latest news:
China landslide: First body found amid signs of survivors
BBC, 1 hour ago

Record average temperature and anomaly (colors) for December in Germany so far (wetteronline.de)

Lack of snow poses challenge for ski resorts
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 22 Dec 2015 09:45 GMT 01:00
Skiing at Christmas will be a challenge at many mountain resorts in Switzerland due to a lack of snow, with none forecast for the rest of the week amid above-average temperatures across the country. ...

Mild, rainy Christmas ahead say weathermen
The Local (Germany), Published: 22 Dec 2015 10:32 GMT 01:00

BBC weather video: Balmy December temperatures in Europe


Ongoing flow from the southwest into Europe.

Drone ban at German castles and palaces
The Local (Germany) Published: 22 Dec 2015 09:04 GMT 01:00
German castles have started banning drones from their grounds, claiming they are a nuisance to tourists and threaten public safety. ...

Tokyo Police Dec 15: Simple Way to Intercept Illicit mini UAV

Have a nice day, everybody!
Good Morning. Here is the current look for Conus and noting the swatches of rain for parts of California (good) and the rain complex currently traversing across North Florida (me in Tallahassee) and beyond towards the Eastern Seaboard.
.

It's all over the National News as we will see many heat records broken this year over the Christmas Holiday for many parts of the US; I am sure all of you will be reporting in over the next several days as to your highs where you live.

In terms of Tallahassee, I confirmed this morning while walking the dog what many were talking about at the office yesterday. Temps when I opened the door outside was a warm and muggy 70 (just before the current rain arrived at the house which will cool things down a little bit and keep the high today around 72) and my Azalea bushes sprinkled around the front yard are full of buds...............Have never seen that in December in my 15 years in Tallahassee.

So, instead of a cold and wet El Nino pattern for the South, we are currently in a warm and wet period in late-December...............Much like September/October as noted by Tally NWS yesterday in their discussion.
And finally the convective outlooks from SPC for the next two days: enhanced risk for the Eastern swatch of the MS valley-delta region up through TN and parts nearby tomorrow.................Have to see how it pans out in term of CAPE values considering the current Conus jet configuration.





bet the current administration is relieved spacex succeeded. even though the original decision was made to bush group to scrap the "gas hog" shuttle president obama took the heat for the decision. i never seen a president who has done the right thing yet has had so many people disagree
Here in Halifax Nova Scotia, our forecast LOW for Christmas eve is 10C, which is right about at the historical record high for the date.
But then we had snow every week in March this year. Maybe winter feels bad about that.
I have the best broccoli I have ever grown in any season anywhere, this December here in the DC suburbs. I'm expecting quality to decline by Christmas because of the combination of heat and dim December light but it should improve again by the first of the year. Some actually won't hold and will have to be picked even though I have plenty in the fridge.
Quoting 133. weathermanwannabe:

It's all over the National News as we will see many heat records broken this year over the Christmas Holiday for many parts of the US; I am sure all of you will be reporting in over the next several days as to your highs where you live.

In terms of Tallahassee, I confirmed this morning while walking the dog what many were talking about at the office yesterday. Temps when I opened the door outside was a warm and muggy 70 (just before the current rain arrived at the house which will cool things down a little bit and keep the high today around 72) and my Azalea bushes sprinkled around the front yard are full of buds...............Have never seen that in December in my 15 years in Tallahassee.

So, instead of a cold and wet El Nino pattern for the South, we are currently in a warm and wet period in late-December...............Much like September/October as noted by Tally NWS yesterday in their discussion.


We often get a few azalea blossoms in fall here in DC but this year.. a lot more than usual. I had some hyacinth bulbs budding but a squirrel ate them so that experiment is a bust. (Squirrels slowly came back three months after their alarming disappearance from our neighborhood)

Otherwise nothing has satisfied its dormancy requirement and I'm not seeing much early budding even though it's been warm.

Quoting 135. islander101010:

bet the current administration is relieved spacex succeeded. even though the original decision was made to bush group to scrap the "gas hog" shuttle president obama took the heat for the decision. i never seen a president who has done the right thing yet has had so many people disagree



ooooh.....ohhhhhh...i know why..............

going to be a warm christmas here in el paso along with most of the CONUS.....however......snow expected this weekend
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
AND TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

WITHIN A BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW COVERING MUCH OF
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS FROM THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE
CNTRL GREAT PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A STRONG LLJ IN THE WARM
SECTOR ATTENDANT TO THE SFC CYCLONE. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INLAND
FLUXES OF GULF-MODIFIED MOISTURE...WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE RICHER
MOISTURE WILL BE MARKED BY A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TO S TX.

...CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

AS THE BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND COINCIDES WITH
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR...A LONG-DURATION/SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE SVR RISK WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE D2/WED PERIOD. MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF STRONG TO SVR
TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FOCUSED IN A VARIETY
OF REGIMES. DCVA PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
DESTABILIZATION WILL ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL.
MEANWHILE...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE
70S SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF THE GULF COAST. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED NWD TRANSPORT OF THE RICH MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLATED
SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SWD TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT PERIPHERAL TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND MLCAPE OF 500-1250 J/KG AIDED BY SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND
63-66F...IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
THE TN VALLEY AND VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH AT LEAST
POCKETS OF INSOLATION SUPPORTING STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AN INFLUX OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIURNAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY 50-60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED WITH
AT LEAST SOME ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. WITH 60-70
KT OF H7 FLOW ABOVE 45-55 KT OF H85 FLOW...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FARTHER S TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS DEEP ASCENT
WILL BE MORE LACKING...THOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY TO THE COAST.

THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG
WINDS -- WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE RISK AREAS THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD...WHERE NOCTURNAL GAINS IN MLCINH WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

..COHEN.. 12/22/2015
Quoting 143. ricderr:

going to be a warm christmas here in el paso along with most of the CONUS.....however......snow expected this weekend
Good morning Ric...Pattern shift is coming according to AER. Ridge builds over the Western U.S. again, and deep trough over the eastern half. I suspected this would happen, but sooner. At any rate, if you have time check out AER latest forecast for the hemispheric pattern..It is certainly worth the read...Link
Quoting 145. hydrus:

Good morning Ric...Pattern shift is coming according to AER. Ridge builds over the Western U.S. again, and deep trough over the eastern half. I suspected this would happen, but sooner. At any rate, if you have time check out AER latest forecast for the hemispheric pattern..It is certainly worth the read...Link


morning hydrus......and thanx......the weather experts say after a mild start to winter the latter 2/3rd will be colder than average in el paso.....last time they said that....we had 4 days in a row where it didn't get above the mid 20's and water pipes broke throughout the city
as for california and el nino.......el nino needs to get it's act together......

first, the good news: Thanks to a series of frosty winter storms, California%u2019s snowpack is now double what it was last year at this time, according to officials.

Now the bad news: The amount of water actually contained in the fluffy white stuff is still well below average.

Snow levels measured statewide on Tuesday showed that water content was 56% of the historical average for Dec. 1. One year earlier, the water content measured just 24% of average.

%u201CIt%u2019s certainly a better sign than there was last year,%u201D said David Rizzardo, chief of snow surveys for California's Department of Water Resources. "Anything is better than zero.%u201D

Although the string of recent snowstorms is welcome, they have done little to ease four years of drought, experts say.

%u201CWe are still not getting the rain and snow frequency amounts we would like to see,%u201D Rizzardo said.
Forests at risk
Paper estimates widespread tree death in Southwestern forests under global warming scenarios


11:24 a.m., Dec. 21, 2015--A research paper published today in Nature Climate Change predicts widespread death of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within the Southwest United States by the year 2100 under projected global warming scenarios. ............................... Averaging all the models together, the study results suggest that 72 percent of the region’s NET forests will die by 2050, with nearly 100 percent mortality of Southwest U.S. forests by 2100.


Link
HOW THIS YEAR’S EL NIÑO WILL MAKE METEOROLOGISTS LOOK DUMB
UNLESS SOMETHING CRUCIAL CHANGES
By Katie Peek Posted December 8, 2015

In 1998, El Niño rains in Northern California caused mudslides, including this one in Rio Nido.
California mudslides! Florida tornadoes! Killer New England ice storms!
Is that the kind of weather we’re in for this year?
No, all that happened back in the winter of 1997-98—courtesy of one ornery El Niño.
While the once-every-several years weather pattern has already caused 100-year flooding on India's eastern coast, it probably won't do much harm in the U.S.
Yet, some forecasts for this season sound ominously similar to 1997, drawing catastrophizing prognostications from some quarters—as well as hopes for a California-drought-ending deluge in others. Both sides may be disappointed.
The Facts

Let’s review what we know: The ocean’s surface temperatures are warmer than usual, and that’s what drives El Niño weather. The global pattern sets up every three to seven years or so, and it usually brings mild winters in some places—Japan, the U.S. Northeast—and very wet ones in others, such as the American southeast and in parts of the tropics.
A report last week called attention to rising the ocean surface temperatures, which have reached a peak that beats the 1997-98 El Niño. That’s a bad sign. But the prediction models actually call for a more moderate, traditional El Niño pattern: wet across the south, warm across the north.
“Even if the ocean temperatures are exactly the same [as in a powerful El Niño year] that doesn’t mean the impacts will be,” says Mike Halpert, the deputy director of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
Here’s Why

The surface of the equatorial ocean is indeed super warm. That’s the first ingredient for a record year. But the second part of the equation is atmosphere: For record conditions, the air in the tropics needs to take up lots of extra moisture.
That then produces higher rainfall across the equator, which butterfly-effects its way into the unusually warm and wet conditions in the U.S.
So far, the second part of the equation isn’t happening the same way—the atmosphere in the tropics is drier than it was during the 1997-98 season.
Weather is, of course, a squirrely thing. But as it stands this El Niño is looking milder than that record-breaking year.
Take a look at these maps for re-assurance. We’ve overlaid the prediction for this winter with the records of the last Big One.
Will This Winter Be Wetter?

Yes, in some areas.

The 1997-98 El Niño brought extra rain to a big chunk of the U.S. But this year, the current prediction has a wetter-than-normal winter likely (green) in the south and drier-than-normal conditions likely (brown) in the north. The 1997-98 chart shows the historical record, relative to a typical winter.
The forecast for this winter season shows the likelihood of atypical conditions.
Will This Winter Be Warmer?

Yes, again, in some areas.

Two decades ago, El Niño created an unusually warm winter for much of the U.S. That’s still likely in the north (red), where December is already proving mild.
But Texas and parts of the central south may see colder-than-normal (blue) weather—the more common El Niño pattern. The 1997-98 chart shows the historical record, relative to a typical winter. The forecast for 2015-16 shows the likelihood of atypical conditions.
All of which means, there’s probably no need to freak out—at least in the U.S. But let’s all enjoy this Chris Farley classic together anyway:
Quoting 146. ricderr:



morning hydrus......and thanx......the weather experts say after a mild start to winter the latter 2/3rd will be colder than average in el paso.....last time they said that....we had 4 days in a row where it didn't get above the mid 20's and water pipes broke throughout the city
No fun at all. We had 9 days below..Our pipes held..Cannot say about the rest of the county.
Green tundra is turning brown as Arctic warms

And in another sign of change, 2014 and the first seven months of 2015 saw the combined discharge of fresh water from eight Eurasian and North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean rise by 10% above the level from 1980 to 1989. Scientists attribute the rise to increasing precipitation linked to global warming.

Link
Well received 2.5" of rain in the last 24 hours here in the Fort Walton Beach area and it looks like the rain will be moving back in off the Gulf shortly. Last nights rain came with some intense winds, sounded like a weak tornado outside as howling sound surrounded the house. Saw minimal damage this morning, some downed tree limbs and garbage cans pushed around or knocked over.
Quoting 154. 69Viking:

Well received 2.5" of rain in the last 24 hours here in the Fort Walton Beach area and it looks like the rain will be moving back in off the Gulf shortly. Last nights rain came with some intense winds, sounded like a weak tornado outside as howling sound surrounded the house. Saw minimal damage this morning, some downed tree limbs and garbage cans pushed around or knocked over.


Wow, thanks for the update. Is flooding occurring?
Quoting 155. tampabaymatt:



Wow, thanks for the update. Is flooding occurring?


Just some ponding in yards and some low lying areas. The Shoal river in Crestview is rising and forecast to go above flood stage this weekend with the forecast of more rain over the next few days.

Post #149

In Dec of '97 the Tampa area got 15-20". So far this year less than 1" with nothing major on the horizon. Just sayin...
Quoting 157. Bucsboltsfan:

Post #149

In Dec of '97 the Tampa area got 15-20". So far this year less than 1" with nothing major on the horizon. Just sayin...


I've had 1.89" in October, 1.23" in November, and 0.47" thus far in December (with only one day of measurable rain). This is more of a strong La Nina pattern for C FL than a strong El Nino.
Oh, wow, suddenly loads of snow in my German town Main today - despite record mild temps! But wait ...


Fake winter. Today a couple of streets away from my place. Photo: Local Ministry of the Interior.

Translated from a German report:
Escaping gas has triggered a large-scale operation of the fire department in the center of Mainz on Tuesday. The gas was carbon dioxide, which is non-toxic, colorless and odorless, but high concentrations can lead to unconsciousness.
The gas was leaked from a truck and crawled in big white clouds across the floor of the adjacent streets. According to the fire service control center, there is no danger of explosion.
Quoting 126. vis0:


"Plused" your comment .  You forgot one more reason. Today's eWorld advances words that are not grammatically correct. Therefore we have the uneducated or non-educated "taught" English by the uncaring "have to have everything within 100 character & emoticon" social sites.
ADD to that those that read those quick messages are not exercising their brain's area that holds the correct meanings to words therefore we are developing the lazy brain era (ignorant era).

For youngins::
Plused yer commnt but ya fergot one more reason, as with me not well edumicated in Inglish. ...There a in my soup.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, vis0, however, the important part of a living language is the ability add, modify and horribly mutilate words and have them become part of the lexicon over the long term. When you look at our language and the etimology of words, you can see an evolution in both the meaning of the word and the conveyance of thought.

Certainly the advent of electronic communication has hastened changes we see in the English language, but it is not necessarily the cause of changes. That's been going on as long as there has been communication... The rate of change is alarming though (that sounds familiar). Whether or not these things having staying power is yet to be seen.
WTH kind of World have we made when a Man has to jump into a fracking pond to save a lil Deer?

Free free to look dat one up from today.
I'm sooooo excited!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting 137. tampabaymatt:




YAY!!!!
Quoting 159. barbamz:

Oh, wow, suddenly loads of snow in my German town Main today - despite record mild temps! But wait ...


Fake winter. Today a couple of streets away from my place. Photo: Local Ministry of the Interior.

Translated from a German report:
Escaping gas has triggered a large-scale operation of the fire department in the center of Mainz on Tuesday. The gas was carbon dioxide, which is non-toxic, colorless and odorless, but high concentrations can lead to unconsciousness.
The gas was leaked from a truck and crawled in big white clouds across the floor of the adjacent streets. According to the fire service control center, there is no danger of explosion.



Looks like a concert venue nearby...lol
Quoting 142. ricderr:
Subsequent to your numerous early encounters with Banhammer you have become a master of subtlety, ric.
Quoting 156. 69Viking:



Just some ponding in yards and some low lying areas. The Shoal river in Crestview is rising and forecast to go above flood stage this weekend with the forecast of more rain over the next few days.
I guess WU is working again. The radar here wasn't working for a while this morning as well. I'm not doing good with electronics today. I got 3.20" from about midnight until 9:30. It never got very heavy, and my high wind gust was 11 mph. Only thing we had was some ponding of water on the roads in the heavier showers, and no lightning at all. It was a needed rain, since my monthly total was only 0.47" until the storm moved in. The chances of severe weather from here to the Panhandle appears to have decreased compared to the forecasts for yesterday. I still expect an outbreak of severe weather, but I think it's going to be more in the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham corridor rather than further south. At least that's what the models look like now. They have done a lot of flip flopping over the last three days.
Quoting 159. barbamz:

Oh, wow, suddenly loads of snow in my German town Main today - despite record mild temps! But wait ...


Fake winter. Today a couple of streets away from my place. Photo: Local Ministry of the Interior.

Translated from a German report:
Escaping gas has triggered a large-scale operation of the fire department in the center of Mainz on Tuesday. The gas was carbon dioxide, which is non-toxic, colorless and odorless, but high concentrations can lead to unconsciousness.
The gas was leaked from a truck and crawled in big white clouds across the floor of the adjacent streets. According to the fire service control center, there is no danger of explosion.

Not only no danger of explosion but the CO2 would put out any fires that happened to be in the area. That turned into a giant fire extinguisher. Unfortunately for you, all that CO2 is going straight up into the atmosphere over your house. That means it will now be hot there until March...or so. :-)
We are going to see lots of departures from the norm in the coming decades in terms of warming issues and animals will be altering migration patterns (and plants changing bloom and range patterns).

I took a spring boat tour yesterday (Wakulla Springs State Park South of Tallahassee) which is actually the largest freshwater spring (by size of the exit cavern 180 feet down) in the world and where they filmed some of the old Tarzan series and The Creature from the Black Lagoon.

The Park Ranger noted that there are lots more Manatees in the Spring in recent weeks (and we saw one Mom with Calf and several others) than in recent years and I noted the very warm sst's across Florida this year; some of those Manatees are from further down the State which have been able to cruise further North in the Winter along the coast because of these very mild temps for Florida.

Here are the forecast highs for today across Conus (including the heat in Florida) ; those warmer temps in the Tennessee region may help keep instability down tomorrow:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Quoting 140. georgevandenberghe:

I have the best broccoli I have ever grown in any season anywhere, this December here in the DC suburbs. I'm expecting quality to decline by Christmas because of the combination of heat and dim December light but it should improve again by the first of the year. Some actually won't hold and will have to be picked even though I have plenty in the fridge.
I should have gone for more broccoli, but I planted some heirloom lettuce instead. It was doing well until about two weeks ago, when it bolted overnight. I rarely have lettuce bolting in December. I have two huge gardenia bushes in the front yard, and they have a bunch of buds, something I usually see in mid-February. Saturday and Sunday night saw lows of 29 each day, with Sunday night/Monday morning having below freezing temps for almost seven hours. Except for a few fronds on my hanging ferns that are on the front porch, the cold doesn't seem to have damaged them. Two days below freezing usually kills them off. Strange year.
NWS Nola/Slidell


Previous discussion... /issued 356 am CST Tuesday Dec 22 2015/

Short term...

moisture levels remain very high across the central Gulf Coast
this morning. This 00z sounding from yesterday afternoon had a
record high precipitation water value of 1.92" which is probably in the
upper 90th percentile for the entire month of December. Thus
shouldn/T be any surprise that widespread fog has developed over
much of the area. Many observations indicate visibilities of
around a half mile or less. Sampling Interstate cameras also shows
what appears to be less than 1/4 mile visibilities in some
locations as well. Although the entire County Warning Area probably does not need
a dense fog advisory...leave them absent would produce a very odd
looking and confusing product. So will be issuing a blanket dense
fog advisory for the County Warning Area through 15z.

Current radar shows first wave headed east across the northern Gulf
waters. Lingering showers persist simply due to column saturation
and minimal buoyancy. Extensive cloud cover should limit warming
today to lower 70s across the forecast area. This is a good thing as
it will limit instability potential. Nevertheless...a short wave is
prognosticated to lift northeast out of the Gulf across the lower half of
the County Warning Area. Hrrr and nmm as well as medium range models all pinging on
a large swath of numerous showers and thunderstorms impacting areas
south of Interstate 10. The forecast probability of precipitation have thus been adjusted
for this. The severe potential will remain on the low side but still
exists. Model soundings do indicate elevated instability across the
board but a weak wind field during the daytime. Going into the night
the wind field begins to increase with shear values in the 40 to 50
knot range. The question is whether or not cells will be surface
based. If model soundings hold true...they wont be and thus the only
chance to mix down stronger winds through the warm nose is through
precipitation loading. Will be something to watch but not a high concern.
Marine locations will be the most likely for stronger wind gusts and
waterspouts.

The real severe weather threat looks to come into play on Wednesday.
Broad long wave trough already in place over The Rockies will dig
and swing negative over the Central Plains during the day. Down at
the surface a low on the leeside of The Rockies will be racing
northeast across the central Mississippi Valley. Surface pressures
in the County Warning Area will be slowly falling during the day with a minimum of
around 1006 mb. Tightening of the pressure gradient will increase
surface winds which will then aide in the transport of 70 degree
dewpoints to points north. Presuming that surface temperatures do reach middle 70s
while these dewpoints rise...buoyancy and instability will shoot up
during the day. Both GFS and NAM bufr soundings show sb and parcel
cape values over 2000 j/kg and mu cape up to 1500 j/kg all over the
County Warning Area. Helicity values aren/T that impressive at 200 m2/s2 but
sufficient. Not surprising with a fairly uniform wind direction
throughout the column. Of more importance is speed shear and just
the value of the winds themselves. Looking at 40 to 50 knots in the
boundary layer which is plenty strong to sustain supercells. The
precipitation water value is in a pretty nice Sweet spot...not too high and
not to low at around 1.5 inches. All of that is to say that the odds
of severe weather for the day Wednesday looking better and better.
The main threats will be tornadoes and damaging winds. How
widespread remains to be seen. If surface temperatures dont warm enough...will
just have the dynamics. If southeasterly flow is too strong than the
marine layer could be pushed too far inland and a warm nose (shown
clearly on the gpt sounding) will hinder surface based storms.
Regardless...the potential is definitely there and warrants the Storm Prediction Center
slight for the area.
pretty soon cars there will be cars made by google. this certainly will increase competition in the high end market
Quoting 168. weathermanwannabe:

We are going to see lots of departures from the norm in the coming decades in terms of warming issues and animals will be altering migration patterns (and plants changing bloom and range patterns).

I took a spring boat tour yesterday (Wakulla Springs State Park South of Tallahassee) which is actually the largest freshwater spring (by size of the exit cavern 180 feet down) in the world and where they filmed some of the old Tarzan series and The Creature from the Black Lagoon.

The Park Ranger noted that there are lots more Manatees in the Spring in recent weeks (and we saw one Mom with Calf and several others) than in recent years and I noted the very warm sst's across Florida this year; some of those Manatees are from further down the State which have been able to cruise further North in the Winter along the coast because of these very mild temps for Florida.

Here are the forecast highs for today across Conus (including the heat in Florida) ; those warmer temps in the Tennessee region may help keep instability down tomorrow:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


The Manatee Park here in Fort Myers gets packed with manatees whenever the temperatures start getting chilly at night. I haven't been to the park yet this season because the temperatures have been so warm.

We normally go down to the park about this time of the year (usually during my Winter break) when my relatives are in town for Christmas.
I'm not sure if it will be worth it this year (for the holidays). No real chilly air in the forecast.
my plumerias are blooming and the berries on the some small palms have yet to get there red Christmas color e cen fl.
Quoting 172. Sfloridacat5:



The Manatee Park here in Fort Myers gets packed with manatees whenever the temperatures start getting chilly at night. I haven't been to the park yet this season because the temperatures have been so warm.

We normally go down to the park about this time of the year (usually during my Winter break) when my relatives are in town for Christmas.
I'm not sure if it will be worth it this year (for the holidays). No real chilly air in the forecast.


The trip I took was State business related but I brought the youngest daughter back a Manatee themed satchel and key chain and the Wife, who loves old sci fi movies, got her Creature from the Black Lagoon T-shirt from the Gift Shop.......................One of the manatees had the usual prop scars on the back but otherwise healthy and munching the underwater greens along the shore line................Beautiful to see the Mom/Pup combo in crystal clear water about 10 feet from the boat (and an upgraded solar powered one at that) with a prop cage to avoid damaging any of the plants or wild life...............The Ranger was super good about spotting the Manatees out ahead, powering off, and drifting past them with minimal wake.
7 day forecast for Fort Myers, Florida. Low of 70 degrees at night at the end of December. Pretty remarkable.
Quoting 174. weathermanwannabe:



The trip I took was State business related but I brought the youngest daughter back a Manatee themed satchel and key chain and the Wife, who loves old sci fi movies, got her Creature from the Black Lagoon T-shirt from the Gift Shop.......................One of the manatees had the usual prop scars on the back but otherwise healthy and munching the underwater greens along the shore line................Beautiful to see the Mom/Pup combo in crystal clear water about 10 feet from the boat (and an upgraded solar powered one at that) with a prop cage to avoid damaging any of the plants or wild life...............The Ranger was super good about spotting the Manatees out ahead, powering off, and drifting past them with minimal wake.


My screen saver on my Computer. I always like checking out the Manatees during the Winter here. We have them in the river all year, but it's during the Winter when they all head for the warm water at the park.

Quoting 161. Patrap:

WTH kind of World have we made when a Man has to jump into a fracking pond to save a lil Deer?

Free free to look dat one up from today.


And that has what to do with the blog?
178. MahFL
Quoting 147. ricderr:

Snow levels measured statewide on Tuesday showed that water content was 56% of the historical average for Dec. 1.



They have 4 big storms since Dec 1, so the situation is better than that.
179. MahFL
Quoting 135. islander101010:

even though the original decision was made to bush group to scrap the "gas hog" shuttle president obama took the heat for the decision.


What do you mean by "gas hog" ?
And so it begins. Hug your children and love one another.
The Shuttle Main Engines use Hydrogen and Oxygen in Cryogenic states and produces only steam.

The Saturn V S-1 or First stage Burned Kerosene and Oxygen for 2.5 minutes though.

We stopped using that after Skylab was Launched.

The Shuttle SRB's now are powdered Aluminum and other stuff and a oxidizer and are fairly nasty things.

The new Orion SLS stack in Heavy form now under construction will be a core stage of 4 upgraded SSME's and 2 5 segment SRBS instead of the 4 used on the Shuttle launch.

SLS Heavy Orion is gonna be a beast,...


2 million Lbs more than a Saturn 5

Those of us who saw the Saturn 5 fly, will see another rise again, with 2 millions more lbs of thrust at launch.

We flew Orion, the Spacecraft a year ago and it went great as the re-entry was nominal.

The Dream of Mars is a reality.








Does anyone know how to get Internet Explorer 11 to work correctly on the blog? I keep getting the message that says "wunderground.com is not responding due to a long running script" and then a message pops up that says "wunderground.com has stopped working". I can only get the blog to work correctly on Chrome, and the computer I am using does not have Chrome and I cannot install Chrome. Can anyone help me?
Quoting 180. Steve536:

And so it begins. Hug your children and love one another.


Is anyone on board?
Many wu members last December blogged the EFT-1 Orion flight early that morning in Lowercal's blog.

It was the first time since Apollo 17's night Launch to the Moon that a escape tower was above the Launching spacecraft, though the EFT-1 flight was unmanned.

>





Loving this warmth! temps in 70s, can't get much better than this. Better then winter time freezes. Can actually get out and enjoy life.
Quoting 178. MahFL:



They have 4 big storms since Dec 1, so the situation is better than that.


In the past four days alone, some areas near Lake Tahoe have gotten 60 inches of snow.
Paducah sent this out.

Cannot argue with SPC`s recently issued Day 2 convective outlook.

And SPC said this.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

I cannot wait!
Quoting 186. tlawson48:



In the past four days alone, some areas near Lake Tahoe have gotten 60 inches of snow.


I can only imagine the fun and horror of having 60 inches of snow in Carbondale IL.
Quoting 187. 62901IL:

Paducah sent this out.

Cannot argue with SPC`s recently issued Day 2 convective outlook.

And SPC said this.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

I cannot wait!


If you lived close to the coast in the Fort Walton Beach area you got rocked pretty good last night. Storm dumped almost 2 inches on me and came with some intense winds. I need to get a weather station that records wind, would like to know how high the winds got. Lots of small tree limbs down and my garbage can which wasn't empty was moved a good 5 feet and that's the first time that has happened in a Thunderstorm that was not from a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.
Quoting 182. 62901IL:

Does anyone know how to get Internet Explorer 11 to work correctly on the blog? I keep getting the message that says "wunderground.com is not responding due to a long running script" and then a message pops up that says "wunderground.com has stopped working". I can only get the blog to work correctly on Chrome, and the computer I am using does not have Chrome and I cannot install Chrome. Can anyone help me?


This site has a lot of glitches, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a sense of urgency to correct any of them. I’m not sure switching to IE 11 will help much. The best thing to do, if you haven’t already done it, is to only display 50 comments at a time. For me, that was the difference in the site taking minutes to load, or 15-20 seconds to load. Many of the glitches folks encounter on this blog have been brought up repeatedly to the mods, but doesn’t seem like anyone is in any rush to correct them.
Quoting 189. 69Viking:



If you lived close to the coast in the Fort Walton Beach area you got rocked pretty good last night. Storm dumped almost 2 inches on me and came with some intense winds. I need to get a weather station that records wind, would like to know how high the winds got. Lots of small tree limbs down and my garbage can which wasn't empty was moved a good 5 feet and that's the first time that has happened in a Thunderstorm that was not from a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.


The last two events have been busts. Strong wind fields, but very limited instability. All severe players are in place here.
Quoting 190. tampabaymatt:



This site has a lot of glitches, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a sense of urgency to correct any of them. I’m not sure switching to IE 11 will help much. The best thing to do, if you haven’t already done it, is to only display 50 comments at a time. For me, that was the difference in the site taking minutes to load, or 15-20 seconds to load. Many of the glitches folks encounter on this blog have been brought up repeatedly to the mods, but doesn’t seem like anyone is in any rush to correct them.


Thanks! I just switched from 200 to 50. I will see what happens.

Now using firefox.
Euro, CMC, and GFS..

194. MahFL
TORCON 7 ISSUED FOR TOMORROW !!!
Quoting 194. MahFL:

TORCON 7 ISSUED FOR TOMORROW !!!


6 for me, even though I might be going to St. Louis....but....HOLY PAPA PEAR SAGA!!!!!!
196. MahFL
Quoting 195. 62901IL:



6 for me, even though I might be going to St. Louis....but....HOLY PAPA PEAR SAGA!!!!!!


Somebody's Christmas is likely going to be ruined.
Quoting 194. MahFL:

TORCON 7 ISSUED FOR TOMORROW !!!


Just to let people know which area of the U.S. has a Torcon of 7 for tomorrow.

Link
Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Tornado outbreak likely, possibly starting in the morning, in extreme east TX, LA, MS, AL, northwest GA, west FL panhandle, TN, KY, extreme southwest OH, south and central IN, south and central IL, east-central and south MO, southwest, central and east AR. TOR:CON - 7 west TN, northwest AL, north MS; 6 - southeast MO, south IL, west KY, southeast AR; 5 northeast and central AL, central MS, north LA, northeast AR; 3 to 4 rest of area.
Quoting 196. MahFL:



Somebody's Christmas is likely going to be ruined.


I don't celebrate christmas.
Quoting 135. islander101010:

bet the current administration is relieved spacex succeeded. even though the original decision was made to bush group to scrap the "gas hog" shuttle president obama took the heat for the decision. i never seen a president who has done the right thing yet has had so many people disagree


That's a false light on the Bush decision to cancel the shuttle program. The decision was made with the understanding that the next vehicle would come on line within a year and a half of the last shuttle flight. The Obama Administration along with the Democrat Congress withheld fund for the next vehicle. At best we will have manned flight again in 2020. Your argument is analogous to me saying Kennedy canceled the Mercury and Gemini Programs. All true, but it was with the understanding that there would be no break in US manned flight. What is the next priority mission for the US space program? A manned trip to an asteroid. Good thing we are on good terms with the Russians to get our astronauts on orbit. // Sarcasm Button Off.
Quoting 198. 62901IL:



I don't celebrate christmas.


Whether you celebrate it or not, it's still Christmas Day.
Quoting 194. MahFL:

TORCON 7 ISSUED FOR TOMORROW !!!


Looking more and more like a rough day.
Quoting 191. 62901IL:



The last two events have been busts. Strong wind fields, but very limited instability. All severe players are in place here.


Maybe a bust for you but the storms that came through last night about 12:30 along the coast were no joke.
just updated

Quoting 152. hydrus:

No fun at all. We had 9 days below..Our pipes held..Cannot say about the rest of the county.


One of many reasons why building codes matter. I remember seeing outdoor exposed pipes running along exterior
walls in Tallahassee and... you just can't do that in a place that gets into the low 20s or upper teens most winters. Here in Maryland it's pipes running in crawl spaces or inside the exterior walls of old houses. Any gap in insulation in the wall next to the pipe makes it vulnerable. None of these are in my house which has never (knock on wood) had a frozen pipe.

In Minnesota pipes running along interior surfaces of exterior walls are vulnerable and code there says a pipe inside the building has to be separated with an air gap from the wall.. even contact with the inside surface of an exterior wall is a hazard.
Putting the house in cold conservation mode. Closing the windows and letting it get as cool as possible tonight to postpone the unpleasantly warm period wednesday afternoon through Christmas morning. Muggy and hot wednesday night and thursday night and unpleasantly warm Thursday.. 60s nights 70s day with steamy dewpoints.. conditions I never remember before a single day of it in mid December 2013. Now just two years later.. multiple bouts!
Quoting 206. georgevandenberghe:



One of many reasons why building codes matter. I remember seeing outdoor exposed pipes running along exterior
walls in Tallahassee


That was the old climate. Our whole infrastructure is built on a climate in our rear view mirrors.
Quoting 200. Bucsboltsfan:



Whether you celebrate it or not, it's still Christmas Day.


Indeed.
Quoting 202. 69Viking:



Maybe a bust for you but the storms that came through last night about 12:30 along the coast were no joke.


Ok.
210. MahFL
Quoting 199. FallingBarometer:



That's a false light on the Bush decision to cancel the shuttle program. The decision was made with the understanding that the next vehicle would come on line within a year and a half of the last shuttle flight.


The Shuttle also cost more than regular rockets to launch satellites, no one wanted broken satellites returned to be repaired, the Shuttle took 6 months or more to be readied for the next launch, originally they were talking of a launch every two weeks, but that was probably a lie to get the Shuttle built.
The main thing was though 2 crews were lost as the overall design was not as safe as a capsule design.
It was an amazing piece of technology though.
Just look at the beautiful hourly graph!!!


Climate Denial Crock of the Week


with Peter Sinclair


Animation: 2015 vs 1997 El Nino
December 22, 2015


Link
Quoting 199. FallingBarometer:



That's a false light on the Bush decision to cancel the shuttle program. The decision was made with the understanding that the next vehicle would come on line within a year and a half of the last shuttle flight. The Obama Administration along with the Democrat Congress withheld fund for the next vehicle. At best we will have manned flight again in 2020. Your argument is analogous to me saying Kennedy canceled the Mercury and Gemini Programs. All true, but it was with the understanding that there would be no break in US manned flight. What is the next priority mission for the US space program? A manned trip to an asteroid. Good thing we are on good terms with the Russians to get our astronauts on orbit. // Sarcasm Button Off.
Incorrect. Bush did, of course, shut down the Space Shuttle program--and for good reasons: 1) It was unsafe, and 2) it was very expensive. The Constellation was supposed to take over from the STS, but experts both inside and outside the Obama Administration realized that that program was itself plagued with a massively-ballooning budget and a rapidly slipping schedule, so Obama, wisely, killed it, and began pushing for more privatization of space. (And last evening's amazing landing of a first stage rocket was a direct result of that.)

FWIW--and keep in mind that this is the opinion of a person whose father worked for NASA during the Apollo program, and was personally acquainted with a handful of the astronauts--I think manned spaceflight is, at the moment, impracticable, dangerous, and way too expensive. A spacecraft that doesn't have to accommodate a fragile human can be built for a fraction of the cost of one that does, so if the trade-off is a single trillion-dollar manned Mars mission or, say, 50 unmanned ones, I'll take the latter every time. But having said that: I've had my name on Virgin Galactic's email list for many, meany years. And I'm waiting...
What does this mean? Paducah just posted it.

These storms should be contenders in the Olympic CWA Dash event
for sure
Quoting 208. RobertWC:



That was the old climate. Our whole infrastructure is built on a climate in our rear view mirrors.


If you run a pipe outside in Tallahassee, it will still freeze most winters and I don't expect that to change for another few decades.

And even with overall warming individual cold spells still cause problems. Water mains froze under streets in Northern Michigan and Northeast Minnesota in March 2014 because of a near record persistant cold winter. And in February 2015 there were a lot of frozen pipes in the old victorian homes of Riverdale, College Park, and Hyattsville where I live and have friends. Obsolete building codes inland is far from the top of my list of climate worres (on the coast it's another matter.. there sea level rise will wipe out poorly sited construction)
Quoting 208. RobertWC:



That was the old climate. Our whole infrastructure is built on a climate in our rear view mirrors.


I don’t understand your comment. Are you suggesting that the infrastructure in Tallahassee should be altered to not accommodate freezing temps? I don’t see how that makes a shred of sense even in a warming climate.
A year after maiden voyage,Orion Progress Continues

Orion just before Splashdown, December 2014



Orion awaiting recovery post splashdown.



Quoting 213. Neapolitan:

Incorrect. Bush did, of course, shut down the Space Shuttle program--and for good reasons: 1) It was unsafe, and 2) it was very expensive. The Constellation was supposed to take over from the STS, but experts both inside and outside the Obama Administration realized that that program was itself plagued with a massively-ballooning budget and a rapidly slipping schedule, so Obama, wisely, killed it, and began pushing for more privatization of space. (And last evening's amazing landing of a first stage rocket was a direct result of that.)

FWIW--and keep in mind that this is the opinion of a person whose father worked for NASA during the Apollo program, and was personally acquainted with a handful of the astronauts--I think manned spaceflight is, at the moment, impracticable, dangerous, and way too expensive. A spacecraft that doesn't have to accommodate a fragile human can be built for a fraction of the cost of one that does, so if the trade-off is a single trillion-dollar manned Mars mission or, say, 50 unmanned ones, I'll take the latter every time. But having said that: I've had my name on Virgin Galactic's email list for many, meany years. And I'm waiting...


Indeed. I'm somebody who goes outside and watches the ISS fly overhead every time it's in the neighborhood. I've watched shuttle launches in person. I grew up with this stuff and love it. But I'll be the first to agree that the space shuttle was an impractical and cost-prohibitive system (imagine if 747s exploded every 70th flight), and the proposed replacements were nonstarters. Putting all our budgetary eggs in the manned-mission-to-the-Moon basket, or whatever the understanding was back in 2008, would have been nonsensical.

We're much better off, in the long run, with what we've got now. What we really should be doing is launching unmanned probes every year. Year after year. Imagine if we had a blimp flying around Mars or the cloudtops of Saturn . . . .
May will be returning on Wednesday here in D.C...I went to pick up some last minute quick gifts like hats and scarfs along with gloves....They are still on the shelves in DROVES.I remember last year it was very hard to get a good pair of gloves or a hat at this point thanks to a record cold November.This year has been warm all around so winter gear is still on the shelves.I talked to one of the sales associates and she said they've had to sale the sweaters up to 60% off just to get rid of them.
NWS BMX:

THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW THEM TO BECOME INTENSE
NEAR THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. A VIOLENT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
ALL OF THE RIGHT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.


NWS OHX:

THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ENHANCED AS IT
STANDS...AND MAY BE UPGRADED BY SPC INTO THE MODERATE RANGE BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THE TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4PM AND
MIDNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AS EARLY AS THE
LATE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ASSAULT. I WILL INCLUDE
SEVERE STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GFE. THIS WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
Quoting 219. washingtonian115:

May will be returning on Wednesday here in D.C...I went to pick up some last minute quick gifts like hats and scarfs along with gloves....They are still on the shelves in DROVES.I remember last year it was very hard to get a good pair of gloves or a hat at this point thanks to a record cold November.This year has been warm all around so winter gear is still on the shelves.I talked to one of the sales associates and she said they've had to sale the sweaters up to 60% off just to get rid of them.


I mentioned it before. So far not a good Winter for ice skating/playing hockey on the local ponds and lakes. Local store probably have sleds and toboggans stocked to the roof.
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NWS BMX:

THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW THEM TO BECOME INTENSE
NEAR THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. A VIOLENT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
ALL OF THE RIGHT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.


NWS OHX:

THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ENHANCED AS IT
STANDS...AND MAY BE UPGRADED BY SPC INTO THE MODERATE RANGE BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THE TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4PM AND
MIDNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AS EARLY AS THE
LATE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ASSAULT. I WILL INCLUDE
SEVERE STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GFE. THIS WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.


Wow! I guess that TOR:CON of 7 is warranted!
76 degrees on Thursday.Why not make it 80 degrees...already almost there anyway..
Moan of the Day!
Sort of sitting here wondering what is lurking in the future? Temperatures wise that is.
Today in Spain we had +20/C and its going to “warm up a bit” for Christmas.
We had clear skies and heat to say the least.
Now the rainfall map looks worse than a desert.
The blue bits are rain!



Meanwhile for the next 2 weeks we are going to have a blocking high pressure over the Med. So que sera sera.

Olive picking time here and a neighbour of mine spent 2 days picking his 20 acres of olives. I watched as they took away to the oil factory a small trailer of maybe a ton (1000Kg,) of olives about the average size of raisins!
Value might be about 400 Euros! $450! £300!
At some point it is not going to be worth farming some of these zones and if 200 year old or more, olives wont produce fruit then there is little hope for anything else?

Whole areas are just grey parched dead grass and of course lots of DUST!
Quoting 207. georgevandenberghe:

Putting the house in cold conservation mode. Closing the windows and letting it get as cool as possible tonight to postpone the unpleasantly warm period wednesday afternoon through Christmas morning. Muggy and hot wednesday night and thursday night and unpleasantly warm Thursday.. 60s nights 70s day with steamy dewpoints.. conditions I never remember before a single day of it in mid December 2013. Now just two years later.. multiple bouts!



Nights in the 60's, days in the 70's sounds absolutely delightful to us island folks. We can't wait for it to get in the 60's at night so that we can break out our big winter coats!!!!!!
Everyone have a Safe weather evening and will check in for bit tomorrow before taking off for the Holidays until after the New Year. Looks like we have to keep our eyes, and Noaa weather radios handy, for parts of the US tomorrow in the enhanced storm/tornado risk areas.

The freaky thing about it is that we are normally looking at Winter lows, with the very cold cored continental lows or El Nino Gulf Lows that morph into potential Nor'Easters; this event is closer to a Spring severe weather event (or strong late-Fall frontal passage) with the milder temps and a wind rain event as opposed to a snow or ice storm event in the lower MS valley..........................Real interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
Here are portions the PM update from WPC for tomorrow in the middle and eastern half of Conus:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2015

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 23 2015 - 00Z Fri Dec 25 2015

...Flash flooding threat exists from the central/eastern Gulf Coast up
along the Appalachians...

...Severe thunderstorms likely from the Arklatex to points west of the
Appalachians...

...Heavy snow in the forecast across the higher terrain over the western
U.S...

...Temperatures 25 to 35 degrees above normal possible from the
Mississippi River eastward...


The upper pattern through Christmas Eve shows a broad trough extending
from the West Coast to the Appalachians while a ridge dominates the
Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic. A series of embedded disturbances
will track from southwest to northeast, each being a conduit for
moderate/heavy rainfall. Expect the eastern third of the nation to be
quite wet, particularly from the central/eastern Gulf Coast up along the
southern/central Appalachians. Recent forecasts indicate the possibility
of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall through Thursday evening with isolated higher
amounts likely. With that said, a multi-day excessive rainfall outlook
covers these regions given the enhanced threat for flash flooding. Besides
the hydrologic threats, severe thunderstorms are likely from the Arklatex
to locations west of the Appalachians. Per recent Storm Prediction Center
outlooks, an enhanced risk for tornadoes, wind, and hail exists over areas
of the lower Mississippi Valley, mid-South, and Tennessee Valley.



Given the deep amplified flow across the country, temperature anomalies
are quite impressive, particularly with the warmth. Recent forecasts
indicate daily temperatures could reach 25 to 35 degrees Fahrenheit above
normal range from the Mississippi River eastward. This is especially the
case north of interstate 40. This could bring high temperatures on
Christmas Eve into the 70s as far north as New York City with 60s up to
northern Vermont.
Just as impressively, the overnight lows on Thursday
morning should be in the 60s all the way up to the lower Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic.






Quoting 223. washingtonian115:

76 degrees on Thursday.Why not make it 80 degrees...already almost there anyway..

Washi, you are doing even better than us.
We have 23/C which is 73.4/F forecast, warming a bit for Christmas, so that should reduce the power bills as the ambient background temperature will be higher, hence needing less power input to cook the nosh of the day!
I'm a bit concerned about the dust in our area as it is very dry now.
I do of course understand that the cold damp lands to the north of us are suffering from deluge after deluge and that central Europe is having a dry "warm wave," meanwhile its a matter of concern that in spite of everything the main and only news on the National Spanish news tonight was only "the lottery," in which about 20 people won some cash and the rest of the population won nothing? though some of them got minor prize's, there were an awful lot of losers!
A bit like with the climate change1

Media is a strange thing, as it has to predict what the masses want to hear while holding back on what they should be hearing?
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NWS BMX:

THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW THEM TO BECOME INTENSE
NEAR THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. A VIOLENT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
ALL OF THE RIGHT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.


NWS OHX:

THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ENHANCED AS IT
STANDS...AND MAY BE UPGRADED BY SPC INTO THE MODERATE RANGE BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THE TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4PM AND
MIDNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AS EARLY AS THE
LATE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ASSAULT. I WILL INCLUDE
SEVERE STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GFE. THIS WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
Violent tornadoes near Christmas...Last violent December tornado outbreak I could find was in 1957...Which was a Nino year I believe...Link
Quoting 205. tampabaymatt:

just updated




I don't have a GFS account, could someone please post the the temps on Dec 30, for the CONUS?
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NWS BMX:

THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW THEM TO BECOME INTENSE
NEAR THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. A VIOLENT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
ALL OF THE RIGHT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.


NWS OHX:

THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ENHANCED AS IT
STANDS...AND MAY BE UPGRADED BY SPC INTO THE MODERATE RANGE BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THE TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4PM AND
MIDNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AS EARLY AS THE
LATE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ASSAULT. I WILL INCLUDE
SEVERE STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GFE. THIS WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
Strong words
Boy, boy, boy, this "winter" is really unbelievable. Below an animation from coolwx.com showing weather stations reaching or surpassing their record marks in the last week, overwhelmingly with record warm temperatures (yellow/orange/red dots). Quite a jostle in Europe!



Here some current webcam pics from our Alps. No "dashing through the snow" this Christmas! Notice some of the webcam pics show current temps in Celsius very well above freezing this high in the mountains around 11 pm! Some even with more than 7C=45F! And it's way too dry to boot. Source of the pics.






Quoting 221. Sfloridacat5:



I mentioned it before. So far not a good Winter for ice skating/playing hockey on the local ponds and lakes. Local store probably have sleds and toboggans stocked to the roof.

Holland unfortunately was already slightly close to the zero but almost all winters provided ice to skate on, ponds, canals, lakes, flooded meadows for the purpose are still created every year throughout the country. But this century has been poor, last two winters again nil, and if in some cooler winters like 2010 or Feb. 2012 the ice would be destroyed by a drop of snow before becoming reliable.

Date records are not news, maybe this December making most of them in any month in the record would make a little news. Today's went with a bit over a degree C.
Hi Barb,
Cant really keep up with you on your post but we have no snow and temps as high as 14/C in the Sierra Nevada above Granada Spain this week.
Needless to say the mountains are covered in rocks and snow free.
Here's what I can dig out of the Internet, although you will have a lot better access than me to this kind of thing.

Link
While others like me might worry that it will be a rainy Christmas, others might have to deal with severe/tornado right before it :(
Sexy
Don't show this to Scott.
Quoting 236. Gearsts:

Don't show this to Scott.

Yep..Where has He been?..i wuz waiting for the update on the next El Nino..:)
@PlazaRed #233

Hey Plaza, why won't you stop sending all your warm subtropical air to us northlanders? :-)
Here is a current pic of one of the webcams of your Sierra Nevada. Looks like they still try to create a skiing event with some illuminations despite the poor blotches of (probably artificial) snow. Ah, it's really sad this year.



Source with more cams.


Current airmass pic showing the ongoing flow of mild greenish-blueish airmass from Spain towards the northeast, and purple cold airmasses with some strong vortex far beyond in the northwest, bothering Iceland and co.


Surface map for tomorrow. BTW, the high in southern/southeastern Europe which blocks all the lows from the Atlantic was named "Brigitte". In fact, Brigitte turns out to be a very stubborn lady, and she's sooo old already. But she just doesn't want to fade or move.
239. 882MB
I hope everyone in the severe threat area, take any warnings issued seriously. It looks to be a pretty nasty day. Please folks, Christmas is almost here, we don't need any bad news. Be safe and prepared, God bless :)
240. 882MB
Quoting 235. Gearsts:

Sexy



More like SCARY!
So, leaving out of the equation a bunch of people pointlessly sliding down mountain sides, risking lives and putting local hospital services under pressure.
Instead look at the lack of snow and what it means to other than the masses of people who yearn to slide upon its surface.
Well, its a sort of water bank for the spring into the summer and this year for a lot of people in Europe as far as we are concerned, its going to be bankrupt.
So, the rivers that bring the water for irrigation will not be bringing water and the plants that provide food, won't be growing, so the chain prolongs into the areas of speculation but one thing is for sure, at the end of the day, there will be a lot of hungry people out there and rising prices to come to terms with.

Then again it could rain and snow endlessly from Jan 2016 onwards? In which case nobody other than the Christmas skiers will be affected, or out of pocket?
Quoting 197. Sfloridacat5:



Just to let people know which area of the U.S. has a Torcon of 7 for tomorrow.

Link
Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Tornado outbreak likely, possibly starting in the morning, in extreme east TX, LA, MS, AL, northwest GA, west FL panhandle, TN, KY, extreme southwest OH, south and central IN, south and central IL, east-central and south MO, southwest, central and east AR. TOR:CON - 7 west TN, northwest AL, north MS; 6 - southeast MO, south IL, west KY, southeast AR; 5 northeast and central AL, central MS, north LA, northeast AR; 3 to 4 rest of area.
I don't really understand how the threat areas got laid out. Does the first sentence mean starting in extreme east Alabama or only Texas? Nothing is going to start in east Alabama. The 7 is just for northwest Alabama? The 5 is for northeast and central while it's 3 to 4 for the rest of Alabama? This is what Birmingham NWS thinks, which has no relationship to either the way the SPC grades threats or this TORCON thing. It would be helpful if everyone got on the same page when it comes to severe weather.

Quoting 237. hydrus:

Yep..Where has He been?..i wuz waiting for the update on the next El Nino..:)
I was hoping he would do the 2016, summer Nina update, since he did such a great job on the 2015 Nino.
244. 882MB
Wow look at that subtropical jet screaming from the Pacific all the way up the East coast. Cant imagine what January and February will look like.

Quoting 241. PlazaRed:

So, leaving out of the equation a bunch of people pointlessly sliding down mountain sides, risking lives and putting local hospital services under pressure.
Instead look at the lack of snow and what it means to other than the masses of people who yearn to slide upon its surface.
Well, its a sort of water bank for the spring into the summer and this year for a lot of people in Europe as far as we are concerned, its going to be bankrupt.
So, the rivers that bring the water for irrigation will not be bringing water and the plants that provide food, won't be growing, so the chain prolongs into the areas of speculation but one thing is for sure, at the end of the day, there will be a lot of hungry people out there and rising prices to come to terms with.

Then again it could rain and snow endlessly from Jan 2016 onwards? In which case nobody other than the Christmas skiers will be affected, or out of pocket?
You'll have to find out what the history of El Nino is in Spain since I don't know it. At least for the West Coast of the US, the historic time for the onset of heavy rains is New Year's Day through Valentine's Day. Since this El Jefe El Nino is bigger than any in recorded history, those dates may move further out this time around. If nothing else, there hasn't been an El Nino year with less than normal rainfall on the West Coast. It may be the same way in Spain, or El Nino may not have much affect on Spain. The amount of snow in the mountains here presages what I think will be a record snow season.
Quoting 244. 882MB:

Wow look at this subtropical jet screaming from the Pacific all the way up the East coast. Cant imagine what January and February will look like.



Now add the cold as the pattern shifts and you get slammed in the East and the South.... Snow and Severe Weather
Quoting 238. barbamz:

@PlazaRed #233

Hey Plaza, why won't you stop sending all your warm subtropical air to us northlanders? :-)
Here is a current pic of one of the webcams of your Sierra Nevada. Looks like they still try to create a skiing event with some illuminations despite the poor blotches of (probably artificial) snow. Ah, it's really sad this year.



Source with more cams.


Current airmass pic showing the ongoing flow of mild greenish-blueish airmass from Spain towards the northeast, and purple cold airmasses with some strong vortices far beyond in the northwest, bothering Iceland and co.

Its probably a combination of snow making machines and photo shops, even past footage from years gone by will be used to try and trap the skiers into the mountains, where the temps are about 14/C in the days, so no laying snow can remain on the ground.
I could sympathise with them if I was inclined to care about cold winter sports but for me paradise was always studying the flowers of the Atacama Desert once in every 400 years when they get a chance to bloom!
Thinking of the economical impacts, its difficult to say but the skiers are normally the most ludicrously fleeced of any tourists, so the fleece "ers" will be really biting the bits this year?
Quoting 243. NativeSun:

I was hoping he would do the 2016, summer Nina update, since he did such a great job on the 2015 Nino.
Had a little difficulty with the 2014 El Nino though...
Quoting 235. Gearsts:

Sexy


Quoting 235. Gearsts:

Sexy



Not sexy! Or funny.
Quoting 229. trunkmonkey:



I don't have a GFS account, could someone please post the the temps on Dec 30, for the CONUS?
Just go to the Forecast Models section of Levi's site. You'll find the model graphics for the top 3 plus the NAVGEM and JMA.
Quoting 247. PlazaRed:


Its probably a combination of snow making machines ...

Yes, thinking twice I concurr the photo is showing snow cannons. As I've stopped alpine skiing maybe 20 years ago (I still do some country-cross skiing sometimes) I'm not up to date any longer with modern skiing facilities in the era of global warming, lol.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING PAST THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PULL NORTH OF THE STATE WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN CONTROL. IN FACT, MID LEVEL HIGH INCHES
CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS WE HEAD INTO LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS
SCENARIO DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OF THE REGION
WITH HIGH FROM THE ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO ALTHOUGH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST/HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED (SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE AT BEST IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AT TIMES) THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND AT THE VERY LEAST. LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CONSENSUS FROM ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS INDICATE
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH
TEMPS TOYING WITH RECORD HIGHS AT TIMES AS WELL AS RECORD HIGH LOWS
IN THE MORNINGS.



UK: Further flooding worsens troubles for Cumbrian towns hit by Storm Desmond
Environment Agency issues dozens of flood warnings across country and warns of continued rain for region where thousands have already been made homeless
The Guardian, Tuesday 22 December 2015 18.33 GMT
Householders and businesses in Cumbria have once again been hit by flooding, just days after having finished cleaning up after Storm Desmond.
Thousands of people's Christmas celebrations face disruption as the Environment Agency warned that the rain will continue to fall over the coming days.
Worst hit on Tuesday was the market town of Appleby-in-Westmorland , which was also the first to be affected when Desmond first struck on 5 December. The main bridge was closed and homes flooded for the second time in just over two weeks as the Eden river burst its banks again. ...


Australia: Victorian firefighters try to control bushfires near Lorne and Wye River
Out-of-control fires sparked by lightning in the Great Otway national park are still burning as hot weather is forecast to return over the Christmas period
Australian Associated Press, Tuesday 22 December 2015 21.53 GMT

Australia approves huge coal terminal, off Great Barrier Reef
Canberra has given its approval to the building one of the world's largest coal shipping terminals near the Great Barrier Reef. Environmental groups have condemned the plan for both local and global reasons.
Deutsche Welle English, December 22, 2015

'Pulses' but no Queensland cyclone yet
Brisbane Times, December 23, 2015 - 6:35AM
A low pressure system is "pulsing" and there's a moderate chance it will turn into a cyclone near Queensland on Christmas Day.
The Bureau of Meteorology is watching the slow-moving system hover over the Northern Territory, but says it won't form into the first cyclone of the season until it moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, towards Queensland. ...



Good night with a glance on ocean's precipitable waters ...
Quoting 238. barbamz:




Surface map for tomorrow. BTW, the high in southern/southeastern Europe which blocks all the lows from the Atlantic was named "Brigitte". In fact, Brigitte turns out to be a very stubborn lady, and she's sooo old already. But she just doesn't want to fade or move.
It's not just Bridgette, although I like that name. She's just the eastern appendage of a ridge that stretches clear across the Atlantic and into Canada. That ridge is going to keep deflecting lows to Iceland and northern Scandinavia while leaving you high and dry. It's going to take a big pattern change to break down the ridge. As slowly as it built is about as slowly as it will break down. From the look at the data and models now, that means the second week of the new year at the earliest. Once it does finally break down, most of Europe will see some very strong lows moving through. The ski areas should be a lot happier then, although nothing is going to make up for the lost revenue of the bad ski conditions for the Christmas holidays. At least at the California ski resorts, that period is about 50% of their annual revenue.


Houston is BIG trouble on Christmas Day. Pray for Houston!
Here we are little rocky moons orbiting a gas giant like Jupiter .
2015 The Year the Climate Struck Back,

The way forward is not pretty.

As all the many unknown and un modeled forcings begin to pop up like Spring Rabbit's.

No Hydra Headed Image needed.

The observations again are underplayed by the Climate Models.

....doodle-loo, wah, wah, wahhhhh'

Now spit -

Josey Wales: Hell is coming to breakfast

Link
"Get ready little lady , hell is comin' to breakfast. :

Now spit.
Quoting 247. PlazaRed:


Its probably a combination of snow making machines and photo shops, even past footage from years gone by will be used to try and trap the skiers into the mountains, where the temps are about 14/C in the days, so no laying snow can remain on the ground.
I could sympathise with them if I was inclined to care about cold winter sports but for me paradise was always studying the flowers of the Atacama Desert once in every 400 years when they get a chance to bloom!
Thinking of the economical impacts, its difficult to say but the skiers are normally the most ludicrously fleeced of any tourists, so the fleece "ers" will be really biting the bits this year?


I skied in Vermont and Maine. Skiing in the eastern U.S. often poses ..uuhh.. challenges, (not including powder.. nope that aint among the challenges]. Any eastern U.S. resort can get warm rain at any time turning the slope to slush which then freezes into solid ice.. black diamond perhaps referring to the hardness of the surface ??? not really but it's an appropriate tangential snipe. If you can handle eastern ice you can handle any ice... the whole slope is sometimes a sheet of it and you just have to deal with it or hide inside and drink which isn't what I traveled all that way for. And when its cold it can be REALLY cold at altitude, -20F with a howling wind. But griping about the conditions is also part of the experience and I used to really enjoy it till I got hurt (in pouring sluicing rain on slushy conditions) and had to quit.

Now to be fair, most of the time once the stuff freezes hard it gets groomed and is passably skiable and sometimes good so I've had some really good times at my low intermediate level so if I had the time, energy and confidence I'd get right back out there.. it is fun!

Quoting 256. sar2401:

It's not just Bridgette, although I like that name. She's just the eastern appendage of a ridge that stretches clear across the Atlantic and into Canada. That ridge is going to keep deflecting lows to Iceland and northern Scandinavia while leaving you high and dry. It's going to take a big pattern change to break down the ridge. As slowly as it built is about as slowly as it will break down. From the look at the data and models now, that means the second week of the new year at the earliest. Once it does finally break down, most of Europe will see some very strong lows moving through. The ski areas should be a lot happier then, although nothing is going to make up for the lost revenue of the bad ski conditions for the Christmas holidays. At least at the California ski resorts, that period is about 50% of their annual revenue.

You're probably right, Sar, unfortunately.


Current conditions in the northern hemisphere according to the latest GFS run. Go here and click "Anim" on the left side of the pic to watch our further misery ;-) Including a strong windstorm for northwestern Europe on Dec 30, if it pans out.
Have to go, g'night folks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxrllL2iuiM
Quoting 228. hydrus:

Violent tornadoes near Christmas...Last violent December tornado outbreak I could find was in 1957...Which was a Nino year I believe...Link
1957 was indeed a strong El Nino year. We've had some bad tornadoes near Christmas, including the December 16, 2000 outbreak in Tuscaloosa that killed 11 people. That was a weak La Nina year. Before that, the next outbreak was multiple tornadoes in December of 1983 that killed 3 and injured 71. 1983 was a very strong El Nino year. There were six tornadoes on December 18, 1967 that killed 2 and injured 41. 1967 was also a weak La Nina year. The previous December outbreaks were were 1961 (neutral year), 1956 (neutral year), and 1951 (weak La Nina). The only significant Christmas Day outbreak was in 2012, another neutral year. As you can see, our December outbreaks are more correlated with a weak La Nina or neutral year than a strong El Nino.
Quoting 242. sar2401:

I don't really understand how the threat areas got laid out. Does the first sentence mean starting in extreme east Alabama or only Texas? Nothing is going to start in east Alabama. The 7 is just for northwest Alabama? The 5 is for northeast and central while it's 3 to 4 for the rest of Alabama? This is what Birmingham NWS thinks, which has no relationship to either the way the SPC grades threats or this TORCON thing. It would be helpful if everyone got on the same page when it comes to severe weather.

c

Yeah, kind of a long confusing sentence.
But the next sentence starts out with,

TOR:CON -
7 - west TN, northwest AL, north MS;
6 - southeast MO, south IL, west KY, southeast AR
5 -northeast and central AL, central MS, north LA, northeast AR
3-4 for the rest of the area

Quoting 262. georgevandenberghe:



I skied in Vermont and Maine. Skiing in the eastern U.S. often poses ..uuhh.. challenges, (not including powder.. nope that aint among the challenges]. Any eastern U.S. resort can get warm rain at any time turning the slope to slush which then freezes into solid ice.. black diamond perhaps referring to the hardness of the surface ??? not really but it's an appropriate tangential snipe. If you can handle eastern ice you can handle any ice... the whole slope is sometimes a sheet of it and you just have to deal with it or hide inside and drink which isn't what I traveled all that way for. And when its cold it can be REALLY cold at altitude, -20F with a howling wind. But griping about the conditions is also part of the experience and I used to really enjoy it till I got hurt (in pouring sluicing rain on slushy conditions) and had to quit.

Now to be fair, most of the time once the stuff freezes hard it gets groomed and is passably skiable and sometimes good so I've had some really good times at my low intermediate level so if I had the time, energy and confidence I'd get right back out there.. it is fun!



Thank you for your report and ideas from a skiers point of view.
What is the reality here, is that the snow, slush and ice which you should be skiing on has melted and due to the effects of gravity and slope inclinations, has flowed off down hill and is on its way back to the seas and oceans it came from, having escaped the pressures of the skis and snow boots for this year at least.
Quoting 70. sar2401:

Anyone wanting to make it over the HIll on I-80 had better get an early start tomorrow. This is going to be a wet and windy storm for the valleys and a lot of snow above 6,000 to 7,000 feet. Looks like there will be a break from about 6:00 am tomorrow morning until about noon. After that, no one without a SnowCat is going to make it east to Grandma's by Christmas. This is going to be the biggest Christmas storm in a number of years in the Sierra, and it's coming at just the wrong time for travelers.


Ex is meeting Kiddo's house manager to pick her up in Truckee (two hour drive for each of them.) Tomorrow. It's pretty crazy thankful we are that there's an inter-storm window on Wednesday so she can spend the holiday with Dad. And yes, I-80.

Wunderground sent me a nice email, here's some of the numbers, last 24 hours:

Maximum wind gusts

location report

Lassen...eastern Plumas and eastern Sierra counties
Janesville 56 mph

Mono and eastern alpine counties
Mammoth Lakes 4 W 129 mph

Pershing...Churchill...Lyon and Mineral counties
Silver Springs 60 mph

Surprise Valley and northern Washoe County
Calcutta Lake 11 ENE 63 mph

western Nevada Sierra front
Carson City 65 mph
Carson City 3 S 66 mph
Reno 5 N 60 mph
Washoe City 1 W 88 mph

And since I'm at it, here y'all go, rain and snow. Looking pretty good! But the couple years before the drought hit, we were having precip stop dead in January, after a really good December. Here's hoping it doesn't repeat.

Rain

location report

Lassen...eastern Plumas and eastern Sierra counties
Plumas Eureka state par 2.26 inch
Sierraville 1.96 inch
Sierraville 3 WNW 2.47 inch

Mono and eastern alpine counties
Markleeville 2.35 inch
Markleeville 5 NNW 1.77 inch
Devils Gate Summit 2 E 0.45 inch

Tahoe basin
Glenbrook 1.24 inch
Homewood 3 se 2.55 inch
South Lake Tahoe 1.14 inch
South Lake Tahoe 2.11 inch
South Lake Tahoe 5 SW 2.21 inch
Tahoe City 8 S 2.55 inch
Boca Reservoir 1.81 inch
Tahoe City 2.32 inch
Truckee 3 se 2.18 inch
Truckee 4 SSE 2.18 inch

western Nevada Sierra front
Carson City 1 NE 0.45 inch
Carson City 3 WNW 1.63 inch
Gardnerville 2 SSW 1.88 inch
Gardnerville ranc 3 WSW 1.42 inch
Verdi 1.59 inch


Snow

location report

Mono and eastern alpine counties
Mammoth Lakes 5.0 inch
Mammoth Lakes 1 WNW 8.0 inch
Mammoth Lakes 3 W 16.0 inch
Mammoth Lakes 3 W 19.0 inch

Tahoe basin
dagget pass 12.0 inch
Heavenly Valley 36.0 inch
Heavenly Valley 36.0 inch
Truckee 10 W 11.0 inch
Truckee 4 WNW 22.0 inch
Truckee 6 WNW 22.0 inch
Alpine Meadows 34.0 inch
Alpine Meadows 3 ENE 12.0 inch
Homewood 3.0 inch
Northstar 34.0 inch
Northstar 34.0 inch
Squaw Valley 36.0 inch
Incline Village 1 NE 8.0 inch
Incline Village 3 E 9.0 inch
Incline Village 5 E 9.0 inch
Mount Rose ski area 24.0 inch
Quoting 267. PlazaRed:


Thank you for your report and ideas from a skiers point of view.
What is the reality here, is that the snow, slush and ice which you should be skiing on has melted and due to the effects of gravity and slope inclinations, has flowed off down hill and is on its way back to the seas and oceans it came from, having escaped the pressures of the skis and snow boots for this year at least.


My report was somewhat cynical but intended to be amusing. It does contain large swatches of truth.
And I can actually say with some arrogance and pride that I can ski in the East!

Our snow in Maryland didn't melt this early winter. It never fell at all. There were good snowmaking conditions for two days this weekend but it will/has all melted by now. Even Western Maryland which is usually reliable both for cold and 200cm of annual snowfall, is not skiable this year. there were two inches of natural snow at wisp on Saturday but that's gone.
I see a lot of forecast mets from NWS here in Georgia are mentioning convection near the coast robbing the system from being able to produce super cells. Is that true for area's west of Georgia also? I have read some meteorologists who have mentioned that there would be no convection on the coast to prevent discreet supercell formation.

And the local guys outside of the NWS are saying there is a good possibility for us here in the far NW corner of Georgia(i live in Calhoun) of seeing a chance of a spin up also. Will that be probably with a linear type of storms by the time it gets to us or could we see the individual cells?
Quoting 253. barbamz:


Yes, thinking twice I concurr the photo is showing snow cannons. As I've stopped alpine skiing maybe 20 years ago (I still do some country-cross skiing sometimes) I'm not up to date any longer with modern skiing facilities in the era of global warming, lol.


One small detail. We still don't have the technology to cover a ski slope with snow when it's well above freezing all the way to the top of the mountain :-)
Quoting 253. barbamz:


Yes, thinking twice I concurr the photo is showing snow cannons. As I've stopped alpine skiing maybe 20 years ago (I still do some country-cross skiing sometimes) I'm not up to date any longer with modern skiing facilities in the era of global warming, lol.

My first downhill skis were made of Hickory and about eight ft. long, as high as I could reach (about 240 cm.) with "Bear Trap" bindings! I upgraded them by installing steel edges on the wood skis. There was always plenty of snow, even here in the foothills of Northern Illinois. (Not even foothills, really, just some bumps in the terrain.) My next pair were steel, about 7 1/2 ' (230 cm.) My latest pair from the 1990's are about 6' 6" (200 cm.) fiberglass with steel edges, and it hardly ever snowed around here in the nineties. We had to go to Wisconsin or Colorado to go skiing. Now those new skis are obsolete, and if I ever go skiing again (with lift tickets in the $150.00 range) I'm pretty sure everyone will be looking at the strange old man with the antique skis!
Cross-country skis have undergone a similar transition, from wood (pine tar and wax), to plastic (waxless), to shorter and wider with better bindings. It hardly ever snows around here (except the last two years) so I don't get out on them much. At least we don't have to pay for lift tickets.
Nearest official weather site to me is Oak Grove CA, about 4 miles as the crow flies.......had 0.01 while Warner Springs 7 miles SE of me had .49.......dry as a bone at my place!

Rain totals thru 4pm today......some very impressive numbers in the mountains of San Diego County approaching 4".

Link
Quoting 268 nonblanche:

Man o Man! Them rain and snow numbers up in Nor Cal/Sierras are some kinda nice.......our mountains in San Diego County (wannabe mountains at 6500 feet) getting 2-4" of rain today.......niceeeeeeeeeee!
Quoting 244. 882MB:

Wow look at that subtropical jet screaming from the Pacific all the way up the East coast. Cant imagine what January and February will look like.




This may be a dumb question......I always think the jet is the orange area just north and west of all the weather to it's southeast.......is this true or is the weather/clouds directly in line with the jet?
Quoting 276. HurricaneHunterJoe:



This may be a dumb question......I always think the jet is the orange area just north and west of all the weather to it's southeast.......is this true or is the weather/clouds directly in line with the jet?
Orange area is dry air, Joe. The weather and clouds are in line with the jet, at least generally.
Quoting 272. ChiThom:


My first downhill skis were made of Hickory and about eight ft. long, as high as I could reach (about 240 cm.) with "Bear Trap" bindings! I upgraded them by installing steel edges on the wood skis. There was always plenty of snow, even here in the foothills of Northern Illinois. (Not even foothills, really, just some bumps in the terrain.) My next pair were steel, about 7 1/2 ' (230 cm.) My latest pair from the 1990's are about 6' 6" (200 cm.) fiberglass with steel edges, and it hardly ever snowed around here in the nineties. We had to go to Wisconsin or Colorado to go skiing. Now those new skis are obsolete, and if I ever go skiing again (with lift tickets in the $150.00 range) I'm pretty sure everyone will be looking at the strange old man with the antique skis!
Cross-country skis have undergone a similar transition, from wood (pine tar and wax), to plastic (waxless), to shorter and wider with better bindings. It hardly ever snows around here (except the last two years) so I don't get out on them much. At least we don't have to pay for lift tickets.


The downhill skis I used in the early 80s were fiberglass with steel edges. I always rented.
I bought X country skis in 1983. They were waxless with a herringbone underside. I used them a few times in Princeton and later in DC. It's a quiet relaxing pleasure as opposed to the adrenaline rush of downhill. I'll need new ones; exposure to 30 years of oxygen have corroded the plastic in the old ones but I am thinking of taking up X country skiing again. I'm confident the snows will return to western MD most years.
Quoting 276. HurricaneHunterJoe:



This may be a dumb question......I always think the jet is the orange area just north and west of all the weather to it's southeast.......is this true or is the weather/clouds directly in line with the jet?


Not a dumb question. You'd have to compare with upper air charts to see where the jet stream is actually located. Here's a 250mb analysis from Ohio State: OSU
And the Earth wind program at 250mb: Earth

Edit: Although I do agree with sar in #277 that generally the jet stream will be near where the infrared satellite is showing the high cloud tops of the weather.
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NWS BMX:



NWS OHX:




You know I've been away for a few months when I had to Google "OHX" and then I discovered it was my NWS in Nashville. -__-
Quoting 225. NasBahMan:



Nights in the 60's, days in the 70's sounds absolutely delightful to us island folks. We can't wait for it to get in the 60's at night so that we can break out our big winter coats!!!!!!
Lol.... So true... Still wearing short sleeves here. The sweaters are packed away and the jacket been more of a raincoat this month..... I hear it's 68 in Plymouth MA....
From NWS OHX (Nashville)

WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS GOING TO COVER AN EXTENSIVE
PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD STRETCH
FROM NOON WEDNESDAY UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT
TIME WILL BE 4 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEING IT THE DAY
PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS EVE
...WE KNOW THAT MANY FOLKS WILL BE
TRAVELING TO SEE LOVED ONES OR FINISHING UP THAT LAST MINUTE
SHOPPING DURING THIS TIME. IF YOU CAN COMPLETE THESE TASKS BEFORE
OR AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THAT WOULD BE BEST...BUT IF
YOU HAVE TO BE OUT DURING THIS TIME...PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.


The day prior to Christmas Eve....also known as Christmas Eve Eve. :-)
Quoting 270. lostinohio:

I see a lot of forecast mets from NWS here in Georgia are mentioning convection near the coast robbing the system from being able to produce super cells. Is that true for area's west of Georgia also? I have read some meteorologists who have mentioned that there would be no convection on the coast to prevent discreet supercell formation.

And the local guys outside of the NWS are saying there is a good possibility for us here in the far NW corner of Georgia(i live in Calhoun) of seeing a chance of a spin up also. Will that be probably with a linear type of storms by the time it gets to us or could we see the individual cells?
Convective disruption, as it's called, is prominent from the Panhandle west to Mississippi. The more convection seen right at or just off the coast, the less likely we will see destabilization further inland, as in within about 250 miles from the coast. I live about 150 miles north of the coast, and this kind of thing happens pretty regularly. Further north where you are is a different story. The warm, humid air is drawn north at the same time the front and accompanying low is closer to you than me. The front and low provide a destabilizing influence I won't get. North Georgia and Alabama have a better chance of seeing severe weather tomorrow and Thursday than further south. This weather situation doesn't include a strong front passing through your location. That means a squall line with embedded storms is less likely than the systems we usually see closer to spring. Discrete supercells are the mostly likely types of severe storms that will occur there. A lot depends on if there's a lot of stratiform rain before the front passes off to the northeast. The more of that kind of thing, the harder it is for the atmosphere to become destabilized. If you don't see much of that or, even worse, there's any clearing and sun, things can turn bad fast.
Quoting 282. Astrometeor:

From NWS OHX (Nashville)

WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS GOING TO COVER AN EXTENSIVE
PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD STRETCH
FROM NOON WEDNESDAY UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT
TIME WILL BE 4 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEING IT THE DAY
PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS EVE
...WE KNOW THAT MANY FOLKS WILL BE
TRAVELING TO SEE LOVED ONES OR FINISHING UP THAT LAST MINUTE
SHOPPING DURING THIS TIME. IF YOU CAN COMPLETE THESE TASKS BEFORE
OR AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THAT WOULD BE BEST...BUT IF
YOU HAVE TO BE OUT DURING THIS TIME...PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.


The day prior to Christmas Eve....also known as Christmas Eve Eve. :-)
Or the day before the day before Christmas. :-)
Quoting 279. Astrometeor:



Not a dumb question. You'd have to compare with upper air charts to see where the jet stream is actually located. Here's a 250mb analysis from Ohio State: OSU
And the Earth wind program at 250mb: Earth

Edit: Although I do agree with sar in #277 that generally the jet stream will be near where the infrared satellite is showing the high cloud tops of the weather.
Yeah, the jet will sometimes get disconnected from the actual weather, which looks pretty strange on the upper air charts. In this case, all the cloudiness, if nothing else, is being produced by the jet as it zips along all the warm water in the Pacific, Caribbean, and Atlantic. I don't recall as persistent a subtropical jet as we've seen during what's normally the season of much colder weather.
Quoting 215. georgevandenberghe:



If you run a pipe outside in Tallahassee, it will still freeze most winters and I don't expect that to change for another few decades.

And even with overall warming individual cold spells still cause problems. Water mains froze under streets in Northern Michigan and Northeast Minnesota in March 2014 because of a near record persistant cold winter. And in February 2015 there were a lot of frozen pipes in the old victorian homes of Riverdale, College Park, and Hyattsville where I live and have friends. Obsolete building codes inland is far from the top of my list of climate worres (on the coast it's another matter.. there sea level rise will wipe out poorly sited construction)



And let's not get graphic about the frozen septic line mishegas I had to deal with two years ago, before I started fixing the previous owner's nightmare of a plumbing horrorshow.
Quoting 275. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Quoting 268 nonblanche:

Man o Man! Them rain and snow numbers up in Nor Cal/Sierras are some kinda nice.......our mountains in San Diego County (wannabe mountains at 6500 feet) getting 2-4" of rain today.......niceeeeeeeeeee!


For real, innit? Talked to Abe, our regular hay guy, he said those weird spring rains we had made for at least one extra cutting, maybe two, outside of the 10% (of normal) irrigation we all got. Probably kept not a few hay farmers from going under. Here's hoping next year's at least almost normal - it isn't just the water for the growing, it's the water that recharges the local ground water and keeps the wells flowing.
VICTORIA AU - NEW STATE RECORD HOTTEST NIGHT: The record all-time hottest overnight minimum temperature anywhere in Victoria State, Australia of 31.9 C / 89.4 F was set at Mildura on the night of December 19-20, 2015.

Link
Nice and hot and wet out down here in South Florida... I can't remember for the life of me a warm December like this.

Uh. Whoa.
The National Weather Service in Miami has extended the

* Flood Advisory for...
eastern Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* until midnight EST

* at 939 PM EST... Doppler radar continue to indicate heavy rains
over western Metro areas of Palm Beach County this evening.
These heavy rains will continue to train northward over the
area through midnight. Rainfall amounts up to two inches have
already fallen over this area early this evening... and additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible through midnight.
These rainfall amounts can cause minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
West Palm Beach... Boca Raton... Wellington... Jupiter and Palm Beach
Gardens.

And on a holiday theme, my favorite scene from the series "Touched By An Angel"...

Quoting 289. Dakster:

Nice and hot and wet out down here in South Florida... I can't remember for the life of me a warm December like this.




Nice rain for the south east coast this afternoon from Ft. Pierce southward. Looks like some training occurring as well.
And of course, this from one of my fave Christmas favorites...

Quoting 259. Patrap:

2015 The Year the Climate Struck Back,

The way forward is not pretty.

As all the many unknown and un modeled forcings begin to pop up like Spring Rabbit's.

No Hydra Headed Image needed.

The observations again are underplayed by the Climate Models.

....doodle-loo, wah, wah, wahhhhh'


Quoting 282. Astrometeor:

From NWS OHX (Nashville)

WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS GOING TO COVER AN EXTENSIVE
PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD STRETCH
FROM NOON WEDNESDAY UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT
TIME WILL BE 4 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEING IT THE DAY
PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS EVE
...WE KNOW THAT MANY FOLKS WILL BE
TRAVELING TO SEE LOVED ONES OR FINISHING UP THAT LAST MINUTE
SHOPPING DURING THIS TIME. IF YOU CAN COMPLETE THESE TASKS BEFORE
OR AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THAT WOULD BE BEST...BUT IF
YOU HAVE TO BE OUT DURING THIS TIME...PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.


The day prior to Christmas Eve....also known as Christmas Eve Eve. :-)


Christmas Apple
And the parade? of storms continues for Soo Cal Christmas Eve/Christmas Day.



Another storm system will arrive in Southern California late in the day on Christmas Eve. This storm will bring rain and mountain snow to the region with travel impacts expected for many of the local highways and interstates. Rain will make travel difficult along the major interstates, with mountain snow bringing impacts to several state and county highways. Be alert to changing weather conditions so you don’t get caught off guard during the holiday festivities.
Quoting 287. nonblanche:



For real, innit? Talked to Abe, our regular hay guy, he said those weird spring rains we had made for at least one extra cutting, maybe two, outside of the 10% (of normal) irrigation we all got. Probably kept not a few hay farmers from going under. Here's hoping next year's at least almost normal - it isn't just the water for the growing, it's the water that recharges the local ground water and keeps the wells flowing.


I had to go to the VA Medical Center in La Jolla today......normally a 1 1/2 hour drive....took me 2 3/4 hours.......did not see a single accident, just stop and go for a long way. We had rain almost the entire drive, light/moderate good soaking rain, not a gusher that causes a rapid runoff....better all the way around and especially if we get any El Nino gusher storms after the first of the year. San Diego starting to get a green tinge to it! Kinda odd that I got hardly a drop at my house, but glad it was spread over a large area and that the mountains got a great soaking and can start refilling aquifers down under.
Quoting 289. Dakster:

Nice and hot and wet out down here in South Florida... I can't remember for the life of me a warm December like this.


Feels like May out here. It's the humidity I'm having a hard time with. Usually December is a lot dry
Still many rain and snow showers in California.....with more to come Christmas Eve and Day.

Quoting 298. BahaHurican:

Feels like May out here. It's the humidity I'm having a hard time with. Usually December is a lot dry
feels like late april early may here as well
Quoting 279. Astrometeor:



Not a dumb question. You'd have to compare with upper air charts to see where the jet stream is actually located. Here's a 250mb analysis from Ohio State: OSU
And the Earth wind program at 250mb: Earth

Edit: Although I do agree with sar in #277 that generally the jet stream will be near where the infrared satellite is showing the high cloud tops of the weather.


Thanks Guys and Gals!
I really hope January brings cooler weather, because this is ridiculous. I'm willing to go off the grid to stop this from being our future.
Quoting 261. RobertWC:

"Get ready little lady , hell is comin' to breakfast. :

Now spit.





Lyrics:
Fragile souls that learned to live alone...
But slaved and mournful,
in this crystal world...

A thriving vision of a mankind,
that stopped believing though,
in the strength of Hope...

Here’s the call of the Spirits on the Earth
The same that burns the light that makes you brave...
Wake up your mind...
Wake up your mind...

To save the World, before we lose
Let's reconnect our hearts to find the cure
just prove your bonds with the Earth and Moon,
It's up to you, to make it truth!

Let’s move beyond, and paint this World!...
with colors that we’ve never seen before,
As brothers with a pure and single heart,
As free as the Spirits on the Earth!

Fragile souls that learned to live alone...
But slaved and mournful,
in this crystal world...

A thriving vision of a mankind,
that started believing in
in the strength of Hope...
Quoting 302. ElConando:

I really hope January brings cooler weather, because this is ridiculous. I'm willing to go off the grid to stop this from being our future.


maybe it will be the first of many years without a winter

maybe
I don't know if anyone has mentioned this or not. But, this and other things lead me to believe that climate change is not only happening faster than the scientist are letting on, it will change faster than even the more (Not the most as I am sure that there is a least one watching "Day After Tomorrow " and stocking up on C-Rations) pessimist scientist believe.



http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/12/1512 21193412.htm

"The amount of methane gas escaping from the ground during the long cold period in the Arctic each year and entering Earth's atmosphere is likely much higher than estimated by current climate change models, concludes a major new study led by San Diego State University."
Quoting 298. BahaHurican:

Feels like May out here. It's the humidity I'm having a hard time with. Usually December is a lot dry


Expecting serious humidity in the mid atlantic wednesday through Friday. 60 dewpoints are very rare in December here and a 2-3 day stretch even more so. We are not at all acclimated and uncontrolled buildings run around 5-10F hotter than exterior daily mean temperatures so it will be a little uncomfortable. Mid 70s or even warmer on Christmas Eve is possible.

Quoting 288. DCSwithunderscores:

VICTORIA AU - NEW STATE RECORD HOTTEST NIGHT: The record all-time hottest overnight minimum temperature anywhere in Victoria State, Australia of 31.9 C / 89.4 F was set at Mildura on the night of December 19-20, 2015.

Link

Yikes! I looked (on Wikipedia) at the climate chart for Mildura and 31.9 C is hotter than the average high for any month except January.
Quoting 308. Qazulight:

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this or not. But, this and other things lead me to believe that climate change is not only happening faster than the scientist are letting on, it will change faster than even the more (Not the most as I am sure that there is a least one watching "Day After Tomorrow " and stocking up on C-Rations) pessimist scientist believe.


Scientific reticence is a well known phenomenon. Scientists tend to err on the side of not overstating their results, especially in a group. It's easy to see in the IPCC report projections of sea level rise which have increased through each new report and which many cryologists still think are too low in the latest one.
Quoting 275. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Quoting 268 nonblanche:

Man o Man! Them rain and snow numbers up in Nor Cal/Sierras are some kinda nice.......our mountains in San Diego County (wannabe mountains at 6500 feet) getting 2-4" of rain today.......niceeeeeeeeeee!



awww don't worry, the SD mountains are like proper mountains to me now...after being in Wales where the 'mountains' are barely over 3000' feet! And the best you can get south of Scotland! And theirs are barely better :P haha
Quoting 262. georgevandenberghe:



I skied in Vermont and Maine...


In New England there is a saying: "Nobody skis, but everybody skates!"

The New England Guide To Skiing:

Green Circle - Grass. You're not going anywhere so you might as well sit.
Blue Square - Water. There was snow here, but it melted. Now when you walk around in your ski clothes you sound like someone squeezing a wet sponge.
Black Diamond - The dirt and gravel mixed with slush and has become some sort of sad porridge with occasional spots of glazed muck. You have to cut up winter tires and staple the treads to the bottom of your skies so they don't get shredded into splinters and toothpicks.
Double Black Diamond - Also can often be found with a double yellow line down the middle. Known as "road" or "asphalt", it's marginally better than black diamond. And you get the extra fun of dodging traffic.
Orange Rectangle - A warning sign that indicates unchecked teen angst and hormones are ahead. Enter at your own risk.
Inbound boomer. Big un'

Quoting 304. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



maybe it will be the first of many years without a winter

maybe


Western Canada and Alaska would say otherwise. They're having a fairly normal winter.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL THREATS. MORE DETAILS ON THE TIMING
AND THREAT AREAS WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA STRETCHING
NORTH OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE LIKELY.

A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

$$
Here's something you don't see every day. Both Eufaula AL and Johnstown OH, where my brother-in-law the farmer lives, are in the marginal risk area for severe storms...on December 23. The high here today is forecast to be 78. The normal high is 54, so that's a 24 degree anomaly. The high in Johnstown is forecast to be 65 compared to a normal high of 34, an amazing 31 degree anomaly. The forecast low in Johnstown is supposed to be 58 while the normal low is 21. That's a flabbergasting 37 degree anomaly! I don't know how much climate change is contributing to this compared to the El Gigantico El Nino, but these are the kinds of weather records we could expect to see once or twice in a lifetime.



EDIT: Actually, Johnstown is right on the border between Marginal and Slight risk while I'm solidly in the Marginal category. No cracks about the either. :-)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:38 PM WST December 23 2015
=====================

At midday WST, A Tropical Low (04U) was near 10.0S 108.3E and has been moving slowly southeast. The system has shown signs of development overnight and if the trend continues there is a chance the system develops into a tropical cyclone tomorrow. The system is forecast to weaken during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE
Saturday: LOW

A tropical low is developing in the trough near 11S 90E, near the northwest corner of the region. There is a chance the system develops further over the next few days. With the system remaining near 90E, there is also some uncertainty as to whether or not the system will be in the Western Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================
Thursday: VERY LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
No So Cal El Niño this year!
Quoting 320. MtotheJ:

No So Cal El Niño this year!


Not yet but let's keep our hopes up for Jan,Feb and March 2016!
Quoting 232. cRRKampen:


Holland unfortunately was already slightly close to the zero but almost all winters provided ice to skate on, ponds, canals, lakes, flooded meadows for the purpose are still created every year throughout the country. But this century has been poor, last two winters again nil, and if in some cooler winters like 2010 or Feb. 2012 the ice would be destroyed by a drop of snow before becoming reliable.

Date records are not news, maybe this December making most of them in any month in the record would make a little news. Today's went with a bit over a degree C.

Today just another date record, min temp by over a degree - 'hiatus' means 'only records'.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SREF HAS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AT 5 FOR MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


...THE LAST TIME A TORNADO OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN
TENNESSEE WAS BACK IN 2000 IN LINCOLN COUNTY...AND BEFORE THAT IN
1988 IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...DECEMBER TORNADOES ARE SOMEWHAT
RARE...

FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES WILL CONCENTRATE ON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. WILL AMPLIFY AS STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTER IN EXCESS
OF 90 METERS PUSHES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY. UPPER
TROUGH WILL TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT WORKS INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SWINGS THIS WAY.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GET UNDERWAY DURING THE DAY FROM
GULF REGION DRIVING PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL ABOVE CLIIMATOLOGY FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH
CURRENT TEMPS IN THE LOW 60`S. 986 MBAR SURFACE LOW CENTER
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA...WARM FRONT DRAPED
FROM LOW CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN
UP INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. MID STATE WILL BE IN
WARM SECTOR FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH MUCAPES ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 750 JOULES PER KILOGRAM AT 00Z TODAY. LIFTED
INDICES GO TO -4 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 850 MBAR JET CLIMBS TO
50-70 KNOTS AT 00Z. AS IF THIS IS NOT ENOUGH THE 700 MBAR TO 500
MBAR LAPSE RATES OFF 00Z OHX SOUNDING AT 7.7 DEGS CELSIUS PER
KILOMETER.


.CLIMATE...CHRISTMAS 1964...A TORNADO CUT A MILLION DOLLAR DAMAGE
PATH FROM WHISPEING HILLS SECTION OF NASHVILLE TO NEAR UNA...AT
11:50 PM CST CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

YEAR AND NUMBER OF TENNESSEE TORNADOES IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER
SINCE 1950...

2000...1
1988...1 ONLY DECEMBER TORNADO FATALITY SINCE 1950
1987...1
1982...1
1978...2
1977...3
1973...2
1971...1
1967...3
1964...1
1957...3
Looks way too much like Spring...


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230945
SPC AC 230945

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE SRN EXTENT OF A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AND NWRN MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING EWD. CONSISTENCY AMONGST
MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THIS
WEEKEND...SUPPORTING THE INTRODUCTION OF SVR-TSTM PROBABILITIES OVER
PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL CONUS.

WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS BY STRONG SLYS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE RETURNING MOISTURE FROM NW TO SE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH FRONTAL ASCENT AND PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION BEING
THE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD TSTM COVERAGE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR D4/SAT
AND D5/SUN. PERSISTENT 45-55 KT OF H5 FLOW ABOVE 40-50 KT OF H85
FLOW WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THIS INCLUDES A MIX OF CONVECTIVE MODES -- E.G. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT PERHAPS
PRECEDED BY SUPERCELLS AND SHORT QUASI-LINEAR/LEWP SEGMENTS. DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. D4/SAT AND D5/SUN 15-PERCENT PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF SVR POTENTIAL. THIS
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EWD-SPREADING WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN TX AND SRN OK EWD TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE NRN AND ERN EXTENT
OF THE STRONGER BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH MESOSCALE VARIABILITY RELATED
TO THE FRONTAL EVOLUTION/LOCATION. RELATED REFINEMENTS TO THE
OUTLOOK AREAS MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE
ACCELERATING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING REMOVED FROM HIGHER
THETA-E AIR INLAND. SOME SVR RISK MAY LINGER INTO D6/MON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THOUGH THIS FRONT WILL
BE OCCLUDING. THE OCCLUSION PROCESS COULD RESULT IN SPATIAL
CONSTRICTION OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPER
CYCLONE STRUCTURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...PREDICTABILITY IS
TOO LOW FOR THE INCLUSION OF SVR PROBABILITIES ON D6/MON...WITH MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS IMPLYING LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS THEREAFTER.
Quoting 320. MtotheJ:

No So Cal El Nio this year!


The idea that all El Nino's behave similarly is a stereotype. One with supporting evidence, but...
Winter does not exist here in the mid-atlantic.Fall didn't exist either.Its more like a extended stay of Spring than a "change of the seasons"
Quoting 328. nrtiwlnvragn:




Morning, dude.

Some hail reported near where I live today:

Predicting the direct effects of an El-Nino is akin to predicting the exact storm tracks of our 11-4-2 Atlantic season before the season started.

SC had a 1,000 year flood event in October but weather in Tampa is unlike 1997-1998 (so far). 5 degrees of latitude to Mother Earth is a hiccup.

Heavy downpours here in Florence,SC yesterday morning and last night. Summertime type deluge. So warm and muggy. The tropical plants are back outside for Christmas. Mele Kalikimaka!

Quoting 326. KoritheMan:



The idea that all El Nino's behave similarly is a stereotype. One with supported evidence, but...
Quoting 329. KoritheMan:



Morning, dude.

Some hail reported near where I live today:




Stay safe your area has severe potential today.


Experimental Severe Weather Impact Graphics
Good Morning Folks. A good day for weather geeking in terms of the current forecast for Conus but certainly hoping that there will not be any significant damage or loss of life from this weather system on the eve of the Christmas Holidays.

Also noting that in a normal El Nino Winter, we would usually be tracking a low trajectory Gulf low pressure system in late-December with the potential for icing and such along the Gulf Coast and snowfall and a White Christmas as it tracked up the Eastern Seaboard. A memorable Season already with the record heat across a large swatch of the US.
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



Current National Watches: the Yellow centered between Texas, NW Louisiana and Arkansas is the current tornado watch.

Good morning all!

It's eerie that the high temperatures in Port St. Lucie will be in the mid 80s through New Years Day.
Historically El Nino conditions would favor cooler than normal temperatures here.

This is all too baffling.
Now we wait:

Forecast valid Wednesday 18Z
Quoting 338. rmbjoe1954:

Good morning all!

It's eerie that the high temperatures in Port St. Lucie will be in the mid 80s through New Years Day.
Historically El Nino conditions would favor cooler than normal temperatures here.

This is all too baffling.



It was 76 with a dewpoint of 72 in Tampa this morning. That's more of an August reading than December. This El Nino is really not behaving as planned for most of FL.
Quoting 218. MaineGuy:



Indeed. I'm somebody who goes outside and watches the ISS fly overhead every time it's in the neighborhood. I've watched shuttle launches in person. I grew up with this stuff and love it. But I'll be the first to agree that the space shuttle was an impractical and cost-prohibitive system (imagine if 747s exploded every 70th flight), and the proposed replacements were nonstarters. Putting all our budgetary eggs in the manned-mission-to-the-Moon basket, or whatever the understanding was back in 2008, would have been nonsensical.

We're much better off, in the long run, with what we've got now. What we really should be doing is launching unmanned probes every year. Year after year. Imagine if we had a blimp flying around Mars or the cloudtops of Saturn . . . .
...or even just 4-5 modernized QuickSCATs...
The Conus Jet on this day in December for the past 5 years for comparison (with today at the top); then juxtapose this against the Enso cycle in the same periods and what was happening in your particular neck of the woods that day/year.

High probability that you were experiencing some form or cold/snow/ice from the Lower Mid-West (and from the Gulf to Upper Mid-West) to the Eastern Seaboard in the past 4 years on this day. Remarkable how warm/hot it is this December for such a large portion of the US.





Heads up AR, AL and NC tornado warnings.


Link
Quoting 345. nrtiwlnvragn:

Heads up AR, AL and NC tornado warnings.


Link
Nice way to wake up...not good for the coffee maker either.
Quoting 345. nrtiwlnvragn:

Heads up AR, AL and NC tornado warnings.


Link

Conditions certainly look prone for an active day today.

Air loaded with moisture and fog was thick over here already this early morning and temps above 60F all across central Illinois currently. Highs to be near 70 today. That's good for a plus 35F anomaly over much of my area. My last 17 days have been unreal here in terms of climatological averages. My average high temperature in that time span has been plus 16.5F. My average lows over that same time frame have been plus 18.6F above the norm. Thunder is already rumbling in the distance this morning.

Going to be an interesting Jan and Feb. for the Great Lakes. When that cold air intrusion does break down south from Canada, those Lakes are going to be absolutely loaded with warm air. Could be some crazy lake effect snows up there if conditions ever develop to allow it.
Quoting 341. tampabaymatt:



It was 76 with a dewpoint of 72 in Tampa this morning. That's more of an August reading than December. This El Nino is really not behaving as planned for most of FL.
I think it's hard to predict the way an El Nino will affect the weather on a local and national scale as every Nino is different, and thus effects the weather differently. This warm to hot Nov. and Dec. are not untypical of what a Nino can do to the weather, and all you good people complaining about the warm weather should be thankful you can complain about it, and not being iced in or snowed it without power, and freezing you know what off. Don't worry everyone who loves the cold, it won't be long before you are complaining about the Cold, Ice and to much Snow, I really like this warm weather and wish it would last year round, but I starting next month we will get our typical South Florida winter season.
Quoting 340. GeoffreyWPB:


Maybe this could be caused by one of the strongest Nino's ever recorded, but this Nino was not like any of the other recent Nino's on record, so who is to tell you what the weather will be like, for the rest of the winter. Hope it stays warm, for South Florida, but I highly doubt it.
Quoting 350. NativeSun:

I think it's hard to predict the way an El Nino will affect the weather on a local and national scale as every Nino is different, and thus effects the weather differently. This warm to hot Nov. and Dec. are not untypical of what a Nino can do to the weather, and all you good people complaining about the warm weather should be thankful you can complain about it, and not being iced in or snowed it without power, and freezing you know what off. Don't worry everyone who loves the cold, it won't be long before you are complaining about the Cold, Ice and to much Snow, I really like this warm weather and wish it would last year round, but I starting next month we will get our typical South Florida winter season.


The ridge that is causing these abnormally high temperatures across FL is also keeping the flooding rains and severe weather away, so if I had a choice between the two, I guess I'd take the ridge. It would be nice to get some rain, but I'd prefer to not have severe weather and tornadoes. Local mets have stated there are signs this pattern is going to begin to breakdown towards early January, but I've heard that all winter.
354. beell
An upgrade to MDT risk for LA is probably in the works this morning.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...LA TO AL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...WIDESPREAD SWATH OF AT LEAST SLGT SVR RISK IS
APPARENT. ONCE MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT WILL STRONGLY REGULATE SVR
THREAT OVER LOWER DELTA TO AL CAN BE DIAGNOSED WITH MORE
CLARITY...SOME OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE PROBABILISTIC UPGRADE.
Low 70's this morning in the Brooksville area, sort of like June or July. It makes me wonder if the enhanced record-breaking (in some areas) warmth over the deep tropical/equatorial regions this year plus the strong El Nino is causing the subtropical ridge to become stronger than normal and help cause record or near record temperatures in Florida and over the eastern portion of the nation. Also, preventing any cold fronts which manage to move through those areas from breaking this above-normal temperature pattern except for very brief periods of time.
Quoting 353. tampabaymatt:



The ridge that is causing these abnormally high temperatures across FL is also keeping the flooding rains and severe weather away, so if I had a choice between the two, I guess I'd take the ridge. It would be nice to get some rain, but I'd prefer to not have severe weather and tornadoes. Local mets have stated there are signs this pattern is going to begin to breakdown towards early January, but I've heard that all winter.


The hype started on here in early November warning us of the epic winter expected because of what happened in '97-'98. I have no experience in meteorology but what I do know is that weather patterns are different now versus then. I like Greg Postel on TWC and he has been talking extensively about it. At some point they may change but so far for central Florida it has been a bust. I'm hearing 2 camps - one says a change and the other sees the current pattern continuing. I would like to get some rain out of the El Niño.
Quoting 356. Bucsboltsfan:



The hype started on here in early November warning us of the epic winter expected because of what happened in '97-'98. I have no experience in meteorology but what I do know is that weather patterns are different now versus then. I like Greg Postel on TWC and he has been talking extensively about it. At some point they may change but so far for central Florida it has been a bust. I'm hearing 2 camps - one says a change and the other sees the current pattern continuing. I would like to get some rain out of the El Nio.


Winter climatologically favors a breakdown. Cold waters aren't adequate to sustain an impenetrable ridge.
359. beell

(click for larger image)

Morning sounding from Lake Charles, LA. Most every parameter required for severe weather appears to be evident in this part of the world this morning.
360. beell
Quoting 357. JohnLonergan:



A couple of funky sneauxmen


Lifted this one from the WU "fishless" blog.



Quoting 356. Bucsboltsfan:



The hype started on here in early November warning us of the epic winter expected because of what happened in '97-'98. I have no experience in meteorology but what I do know is that weather patterns are different now versus then. I like Greg Postel on TWC and he has been talking extensively about it. At some point they may change but so far for central Florida it has been a bust. I'm hearing 2 camps - one says a change and the other sees the current pattern continuing. I would like to get some rain out of the El Niño.


Unless something radically changes, this El Nino won't have anywhere near the same impact to C FL as the 97-98 El Nino did. The previous super El Nino before 97-98 didn't provide above normal rains to C FL, so it's not a guarantee that a super El Nino will flood FL. However, since we're way below average in rainfall since the dry season began, it would be nice to get some rain so SWFTMD doesn't fabricate another drought for the Tampa Bay area.
362. beell
Perhaps a mid-level speed max tracking east across central TX will get things going across LA this afternoon.




(static wv loop ending at 8:15 AM CDT)
Quoting 318. sar2401:

Here's something you don't see every day. Both Eufaula AL and Johnstown OH, where my brother-in-law the farmer lives, are in the marginal risk area for severe storms...on December 23. The high here today is forecast to be 78. The normal high is 54, so that's a 24 degree anomaly. The high in Johnstown is forecast to be 65 compared to a normal high of 34, an amazing 31 degree anomaly. The forecast low in Johnstown is supposed to be 58 while the normal low is 21. That's a flabbergasting 37 degree anomaly! I don't know how much climate change is contributing to this compared to the El Gigantico El Nino, but these are the kinds of weather records we could expect to see once or twice in a lifetime.



EDIT: Actually, Johnstown is right on the border between Marginal and Slight risk while I'm solidly in the Marginal category. No cracks about the either. :-)


March 2012 and February-March 1976 are the two extreme fortnights that stand out in my memory in the East. This may be a third.

As of 12/22 though the LWX discussion reports the period from 11/1 to 12/22 is the second warmest at DCA


SIDENOTE - AT DC FOR THE PD 11/1-12/21 THIS IS THE 2ND WARMEST
AVG TEMP ON RECORD - 51.6. ONLY 2001 WAS WARMER (53.0). THIS HAS
BEEN THE 4TH WARMEST AT BALT FOR THE SAME PD.



CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST
OF RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 24TH AND 25TH AND RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF DECEMBER.

DECEMBER 24TH RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DCA...58 (1891)
BWI...53 (1891)
IAD...42 (2014/1979)

DECEMBER 24TH RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
DCA...69 (1933)
BWI...65 (1990/1982)
IAD...66 (1982)

DECEMBER 25TH RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DCA...49 (1987)
BWI...48 (1964)
IAD...50 (1982)

DECEMBER 25TH RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
DCA...72 (1964)
BWI...72 (1964)
IAD...71 (1982/1964)

RECORD DECEMBER MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
DCA...79 (DEC 7 1998)
BWI...77 (DEC 7 1998/DEC 6 1998/DEC 29 1984)
IAD...79 (DEC 6 1998)

RECORD DECEMBER MONTHLY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DCA...59 (DEC 5 1973)
BWI...62 (DEC 22 2013)
IAD...62 (DEC 22 2013)

WARMEST DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE 21ST
DCA
1. 50.5 (2001)
2. 50.2 (1998)
3. 48.8 (2015)
BWI
1. 47.2 (1998)
2. 47.1 (2001)
3. 46.1 (1931)
4. 45.9 (1923)
5. 45.9 (2015)
NOTE: MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS REPORTED TO THE NEAREST
TENTH OF A DEGREE. BUT IF YOU GO OUT AN EXTRA DECIMAL PLACE
2015 RANKS JUST BEHIND 1923.
IAD
1. 47.2 (1998)
2. 46.5 (2001)
3. 45.5 (2015)




So far the warmth in DC is not unprecedented and I remember from conditions in 1998 and 2001 that I could have had late garden stuff similar to what I'm getting now. I've only had access to workable garden land ,in the cold season, since fall 2011. I've had summer rental gardens since the 80s. My own backyard from 1992-2010 was heavily shaded. Now I have decent sun


I expect the coming week to make the warmth "unprecedented" Upper 50s with upper 50s dewpoints here this early AM.
Quoting 327. washingtonian115:

Winter does not exist here in the mid-atlantic.Fall didn't exist either.Its more like a extended stay of Spring than a "change of the seasons"


Feels like fall to me. Difference between fall and spring is that fall has dim light and less mixing hence more stagnant air and less wind. In the absence of winter, transition to "Spring" will be in mid February when the sun gets strong again.
365. beell

(click for SPC WW 558 page)
The pictures of that Austrian place is an amazing comparison. Too bad it looks like it will be mostly cloudy here in Texas for Xmas. Link
I have a friend in Jasper, Arkansas.... it looks kinda mountain-y there.

Should i be weather-worried for her?
368. beell
Most of Louisiana (and SE TX) still "capped" AOA 700 mb this morning. 6-7°C

North Florida is well below (and to the SE) of the main threat areas around TX/AK/LA, and it is only overcast and drizzly, but still located under the current jet pattern, and it is slightly breezy here in Tallahassee...........That tells me that the low that is bringing the severe weather later today to the threat areas is deepening a bit and that the pressure gradient between the low and the highs over the Eastern Conus and off the Eastern Seaboard, with the jet in the middle, is falling into place for some potential straight line wind damage:

The low (now centered to the North of the Texas Panhandle around Kansas) is now down to 996 millibars.




370. beell
Quoting 367. aquak9:

I have a friend in Jasper, Arkansas.... it looks kinda mountain-y there.

Should i be weather-worried for her?


She oughta be OK, doggie. A wind shift and falling dp's in the near future.
Thanks beell. Looked like any event woud end earlier in the day than later...
later on in the week, could be messy again.

Sitting here on the GOM, literally- waving to west. Can you see me beell?
Most of the wind reports (trees down-power lines down) are coming in from Arkansas so far this morning:
373. beell
Quoting 369. weathermanwannabe:

The low (now centered to the North of the Texas Panhandle around Kansas) is now down to 996 millibars.







That particular forecast chart is valid at 00Z this evening (6PM local). The synoptic surface low associated with today's weather is currently over NE KS.

Quoting 373. beell:



That particular forecast chart is valid at 00Z this evening. The synoptic surface low associated with today's weather is currently over NE KS.




Thanks; I hit the wrong tab and it looked "off" in terms of the VW loop.........................
Nasty looking low and one current tornado warning from that line going across Missouri:
Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


It's so warm the local water park is opening up for the Christmas holiday. That's crazy.
Lake Tahoe, CA


12/22/2015 0726 am

Heavenly Valley, Douglas County.

Heavy snow m36.0 inch, reported by public.


Heavenly ski resort reported 36 inches of new snow in the
past 24 hours.
378. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 557...

VALID 231612Z - 231745Z

SUMMARY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 557 CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHERN AR.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WW 557 AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THIS REGION. THE VAD PROFILE AT SHV SHOWS WEAK VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS...LEADING TO DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LESSENED CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER THIS AREA.

FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO CENTRAL LA. THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SPREADING TOWARD THE MEMPHIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015
Quoting 376. Sfloridacat5:

It's so warm the local water park is opening up for the Christmas holiday. That's crazy.


Send some of that to So Cal. We had rain/rain mist for 36 hours. I can't take it much longer.
Current SPC chart:


Big Duke NOLA7 on the wu big loop

Standing by,

Previous discussion... /issued 758 am CST Wednesday Dec 23 2015/ 

.Sounding discussion...

Bottom line up front...all modes of severe weather remain possible
today. A very moist atmosphere was sampled this morning with a
precipitable water value of 1.74 inches. This is 2 Standard
deviations above normal and a record value for this date/time.
Most unstable cape of about 1200 j/kg exists with inhibition in
the form of a capping inversion. Assuming low clouds and fog
dissipate and we have some surface heating...this capping
inversion should erode. With quite a bit of moisture in the low-
levels...the downdraft cape is not in the optimum range for
damaging straight line winds. This may change if drier air mixes
down and winds become more unidirectional. The freezing level is
near 13000 feet which is high...but there was a report earlier in
the night of 1.25 inch diameter hail in Ascension Parish. 0-1km
srh and 0-3km srh is impressive at 200 and 340 m2/s2 respectively.
Winds are from the southeast at the surface and then are
predominately from the southwest. So there is low level
directional shear currently. There is also some speed shear with
950mb at 15 knots...850mb at 33 knots...700mb at 51 knots...500mb
is at 58 knots. A peak wind speed of 103 knots was at 39000 feet
with a storm top wind speed near 48000 feet of 72 knots.

Storm Prediction Center has requested an 18z sounding in support of severe weather
operations.

12z balloon info: a successful flight lasting 85 minutes and
reaching a height of 14.8 miles above the ground. The balloon
burst over Neely 84 miles downrange from the office.
The code system:
Understanding Categories

of note from the Disco'

This is 2 Standard
deviations above normal and a record value for this date/time.
384. beell

(click image for all 1630Z Outlook graphics and discussion)
Don't have access at work to TV so would be curious as to where Dr. Forbes is today with his torcon values........Here is an interesting chart from SPC with tornado climatology for this date; the current threat is centered slightly to the North of the traditional one:





From Climate Nexus:

Climate change and El Niño fueled 2015’s record heat



Earth’s second consecutive record hot year signals alarming warming trend

2015 is the second of two back-to-back record hot years, and scientists say the record heat’s primary cause is climate change. That heat records are now commonplace is a clear signal of the planet’s long-term warming trend. From 1880 to 2012, the Earth warmed 1.5°F (0.85°C) at a rate roughly ten times faster than the rate ending past ice-ages. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer than any decade on record, and 13 of the 15 hottest years on record occurred since 2000, with the two exceptions (1997 and 1998) occurring during the strongest El Niño on record.

Warming world + El Niño = record warmth

While the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is responsible for a large part of the variation in weather we see in the global climate from one year to the next, a study conducted by scientists with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative finds that climate change is the dominant cause of 2015’s record warmth.

Using well-established techniques from peer-reviewed literature, the scientists estimated 2015’s global temperature anomaly to be 1.89°F (1.05°C) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline and determined that roughly 1.8°F (1.0°C) of 2015’s temperature anomaly was due to human-caused climate change. The WWA analysis found that El Niño was responsible for 0.09°F to 0.18°F (0.05°C to 0.1°C) of 2015’s record warmth. This means, El Niño caused at most 10 percent of the warming, with the other 90 percent being due to climate change.

The influence of climate change is also apparent when comparing 2015 to past El Niño years. 2015 has seen the third-largest surface temperature warming influence from any El Niño event on record, behind 1998 and 1987. Yet its global average temperature is set to be more than 0.36°F (0.2°C) warmer than the record 1998 El Niño year. The temperature difference between 2015 and 1998 highlights the fact that in 2015, El Niño started its warming from higher baseline temperatures. Records are often broken when climate change and natural variability run in the same direction, and such was the case in 2015 when El Niño and climate change combined to create record warmth.

Read more >>
Torcon of 8 Link

The Tornado Conditions Index, better known as TOR:CON, has been raised to as high as 8 out of 10 for parts of west Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama on Wednesday, meaning there's a 80 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area. Tornadoes and damaging winds will also be possible in a much larger area from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. This includes TOR:CON values as high as 7 in eastern Arkansas, 6 in west Kentucky and south Mississippi, and 5 in southeast Missouri and northeast Louisiana.
Seems like it's going to be shakin' and bakin' here in Middle Tennessee later today. Might as well go to the record studios to record my new single...

I'm dreaming of a TORNADIC Christmas...just like the one that's never happened here before...

Average high temperature...49.5F. Currently, it's 66F with a dewpoint of 60F.

Quoting 236. Gearsts:

Don't show this to Scott.



The CFS also had similar rainfall anomalies over FL for November and December, yet it's been one of the driest November December periods on record in most of FL except for the Panhandle and far southern portions of the state.

With said, why should this be believable? As long as troughing in the west and ridging in the east persists, there will be no major rain and cooling events for most of Florida, period.

That doesn't mean it won't breakdown, but this type of anomalous height pattern break easily. Also the trend has been upward with the past few weeks.

Of course, it doesn't mean it won't change, it could. I just wouldn't get all excited about CFS outlooks. Their accuracy track record is pretty poor.
Loving this week -just 20 degrees too warm!
Current view off the balcony (BOOM.. Rumble.. rumble.. rumble..)


Have a safe and happy Holiday everyone!
394. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...NRN MS...WEST TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231658Z - 231900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TN/MS/LA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SO FAR...DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER NORTHERN LA. MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015
In no way is it like ANY Dec 23rd I have ever experienced in my almost 56 years now.

With the temps in the 70's, 76.5 here and the low level inflow roaring North, it is more like mid May here in NOLA.

Down right creepy outside.

It's palatable that trouble is coming later.

Quoting 389. Sfloridacat5:

Torcon of 8 Link

The Tornado Conditions Index, better known as TOR:CON, has been raised to as high as 8 out of 10 for parts of west Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama on Wednesday, meaning there's a 80 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area. Tornadoes and damaging winds will also be possible in a much larger area from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. This includes TOR:CON values as high as 7 in eastern Arkansas, 6 in west Kentucky and south Mississippi, and 5 in southeast Missouri and northeast Louisiana.
So far, so good in SE Alabama. I've had 2.35" of rain since 0430 as a result of mostly moderate showers.This gives me a three day total of 5.55". No real flooding issues up until now other than the usual nuisance type stuff. The side yard has standing water about 8-10 inches deep, and that's usually the first sign of soil saturation. Not much of a temperature range though, with a low of 62 and a current temperature of 64. All the thunderstorms have stayed in the Panhandle and SW AL, and my high wind gust has been 7 mph. Looks like the back edge of the trough is about 150 miles west, and that should be the end of the steady rain for a while. As long as we don't get clearing and heating this afternoon, we should be mostly OK in terms of severe weather.
Quoting 395. Patrap:

In no way is it like ANY Dec 23rd I have ever experienced in my almost 56 years now.

With the temps in the 70's here and the low level inflow roaring North, it is more like mid May here in NOLA.

Down right creepy outside.

It's palatable that trouble is coming later.





Gotta be prepared, always!
It was on this Date in 1989 the area wide coldest temps of the last Century were recorded.

A Low of 11F had Lake Pontchartrain Frozen out a quarter mile.


Quoting 394. beell:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...NRN MS...WEST TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231658Z - 231900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TN/MS/LA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SO FAR...DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER NORTHERN LA. MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015
No breaks in the clouds, please. That one sentence can make the difference between a rainy day and a bad day.
As one who writes a updated Hurricane Prep blog entry for 9 years here now, Im prepped 24/7/365.

Seen Hell and High water once.

: I
Quoting 391. Astrometeor:

Seems like it's going to be shakin' and bakin' here in Middle Tennessee later today. Might as well go to the record studios to record my new single...

I'm dreaming of a TORNADIC Christmas...just like the one that's never happened here before...

Average high temperature...49.5F. Currently, it's 66F with a dewpoint of 60F.


Greetings Astro.....Some of the most impressive severe weather parameters I have ever seen in December for the U.S. I hope it is not as bad as it looks..Keep your eye to the sky for the next week...

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 392. Jedkins01:



The CFS also had similar rainfall anomalies over FL for November and December, yet it's been one of the driest November December periods on record in most of FL except for the Panhandle and far southern portions of the state.

With said, why should this be believable? As long as troughing in the west and ridging in the east persists, there will be no major rain and cooling events for most of Florida, period.

That doesn't mean it won't breakdown, but this type of anomalous height pattern break easily. Also the trend has been upward with the past few weeks.

Of course, it doesn't mean it won't change, it could. I just wouldn't get all excited about CFS outlooks. Their accuracy track record is pretty poor.
I think you meant this kind of anomalous height pattern doesn't break down easily. It's pretty tough to get kind of monster lows we'll need to get things changing without having the lows come from the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. The lows there now aren't much deeper than the present low over Kansas. It looks like we'll get deeper lows after about January 5, but that still doesn't mean they we'll get a zonal flow that will bring the lows far enough east and shout to start breaking down a ridge that extends from eastern Europe all the way out into the tropical Pacific. The present temperature in Moscow is 43, which is the high, and they've got drizzle. With an average high of 22 and low of 12, 43 degrees and drizzle is not the marker for the ridge about to break down.

Edit: Never fails...
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1148 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 1247 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 1144 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1139 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1138 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1128 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1126 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1108 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
Quoting 400. Patrap:

As one who writes a updated Hurricane Prep blog entry for 9 years here now, Im prepped 24/7/365.

Seen Hell and High water once.

: I
Howdy Pat..You certainly have had a rough go of it where the weather is concerned..Many prayers went your way after Katrina...Some of the most terrible things my eyes ever saw were associated with that hurricane..hope i never see anything like that again...Speaking of a rough go, it does not look good for this region.
You are totally correct Pat as to the set-up today (and I am right behind you age-wise). Have never seen, in my 15 years now in Tallahassee, a strong, but "warm" frontal system coming out of the S-SW in late December.

Pretty amazing that my oldest Daughter (23), who grew up wade-fishing with me in these parts on the Gulf in the Summers, is on her way here from Atlanta as we speak and we have made a change of plans for Sunday morning; we are going wade fishing on the coast for the Redfish and Trout that have not gone up river yet in any significant numbers due to the warm temps.................................
PDS Tornado Watch is up:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK SHOULD INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

A bunch of storm chasers setting up just to the south and west of Memphis, Tenn. Could get very interesting later today in that area.
Quoting 353. tampabaymatt:



The ridge that is causing these abnormally high temperatures across FL is also keeping the flooding rains and severe weather away, so if I had a choice between the two, I guess I'd take the ridge. It would be nice to get some rain, but I'd prefer to not have severe weather and tornadoes. Local mets have stated there are signs this pattern is going to begin to breakdown towards early January, but I've heard that all winter.
Didn't winter just start 2 days ago?