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Historic Paris Climate Deal: A Low Va Va Voom

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:29 PM GMT on December 14, 2015

After two weeks of intricate negotiation, world leaders wrapped up the 2015 UN climate summit in Paris with the most important diplomatic advance on global climate protection in more than two decades. The end product was the Paris Agreement (see PDF), a finely tuned document aimed at getting all of the world’s nations on board with plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions--even if those plans are not legally binding.


Figure 1. Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Christiana Figueres, Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon and Foreign Affairs Minister and President-designate of COP21 Laurent Fabius raise hands together after adoption of a historic global warming pact at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, on December 12, 2015. Envoys from 195 nations adopted the historic accord. Image credit: Francois Guillot/AFP/Getty Images.


Key parts of the Paris Agreement include:

--New global targets. The Paris Agreement emphasizes the importance of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” The 1.5°C goal was originally proposed years ago by small island states for which any greater warming could spell extinction. In a surprise move, the U.S., European Union, Brazil, and many other nations joined forces with those small island states to argue on behalf of including the 1.5°C goal. For now, the target is mainly a statement of solidarity and empathy, given that the nation-by-nation plans submitted over the last few months would together limit global warming to perhaps 2.7°C over preindustrial levels at best.

--Regular review and fine-tuning. The targets in each national plan will remain voluntary--largely out of deference to the U.S. Congress, which telegraphed its refusal to approve binding U.S. targets. But the Paris Agreement does include newly binding requirements on how each nation reports progress toward its targets, to help ensure accountability on the world stage. The plans must be reviewed and revised every five years, with an eye toward greater emission cuts over time as renewable technologies are deployed at larger scale.

It appears that the legally binding requirements of the Paris Agreement may not require approval from the U.S. Congress if they are interpreted as extensions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was signed by President George H.W. Bush and approved by the U.S. Senate in 1992.

Was the Paris summit a success?
The international nonprofit group E3G had envisioned three possible outcomes from Paris:

Le Zombie--tactical deal with high potential for collapse
Comme ci, Comme ça’--modest progress with guarantees on finance
Va Va Voom--cements a new enduring regime on climate change

E3G rated the final result as a “low Va Va Voom.” According to E3G, the Paris Agreement “signals the end of business as usual for the energy industries. Future investment will need to be compatible with a zero carbon world.” The agreement is also expected to hasten other activity on the regional, state, and local scales worldwide. For example, mayors from hundreds of cities around the world pledged in Paris to move toward a year-2050 target of 100% renewable energy or an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases.

Will it be enough?
This year’s global temperature is likely to reach 1.0°C above preindustrial levels. It’s been estimated that the known global reserves of fossil fuel are already several times more than enough to push us above the 2.0°C target. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some activists and policymakers argue that good intentions and voluntary targets could still wilt in the face of economic pressure to use this coal, oil, and gas. The eminent climate scientist James Hansen, now retired from NASA, called the Paris talks “a fraud,” arguing that a fee on emitting carbon remains essential: “As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”

There are several ways to use market forces to reduce greenhouse emissions, including a tax or fee on carbon as well as cap-and-trade mechanisms. Many nations, regions, and states have adopted cap-and-trade systems, including the northeast U.S., and Climate Central’s John Upton recently showed how interstate collaboration may help reduce emissions from U.S. power plants under new EPA guidelines. We can expect a further blossoming of such arrangements as nations around the world explore ways to meet their Paris commitments. Yet this won’t be a cake walk, as veteran climate writer and activist Bill McKibben pointed out in a Guardian essay on Sunday, using the apt analogy of a marathon: “Our only hope is to decisively pick up the pace...We know where we’re going now; no one can doubt that the fossil fuel age has finally begun to wane, and that the sun is now shining on, well, solar. But the question, the only important question, is: how fast.”


Figure 2. Typhoon Melor as seen by Japan’s Himawari satellite at 0237Z Monday, December 14 (9:37 pm EST December 13), 2015. At the time, Melor was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and the southern eyewall of the storm was over northern Samar Island. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Yet another Category 4 in the Pacific: Melor churns through Philippines
Typhoon Melor powered into the Central Philippines on Sunday night, December 13 (U.S. EST time) as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. This was slightly below its peak intensity as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds at 8 am EST Sunday, when Melor became the record-smashing 26th Northern Hemisphere Category 4 or stronger storm this year (previous record: just 18 such storms in 1997 and 2004, according to WU contributor Dr. Phil Klotzbach.) Melor is also the 20th typhoon of 2015, which is the most typhoons in the Northwest Pacific since 2004 (which also had 20 typhoons.) Melor is the strongest December typhoon to affect the Philippines since Typhoon Bopha of 2012, which hit Mindanao Island on December 3 as a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds.

Damage is likely to be heavy from Melor, since the southern eyewall of the storm tracked along the north coast of Samar Island for several hours when the typhoon was at Category 3 strength. The Philippine Meteorological agency, PAGASA, warned that Melor could bring a storm surge as high as 4 meters to the coast, and rainfall amounts of 10+ inches were expected over a wide swath of the Philippines along Melor’s path. As it weakens, Melor is expected to make a final Philippines landfall on Mindoro Island on Tuesday morning local time.


Figure 3. A view of the powerful extratropical cyclone over the Bering Sea from Japan’s Himawari satellite at 0500Z Sunday, December 13, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Aleutians pummeled by fierce cyclone in Bering Sea
Melor wasn’t the only cyclone thrashing around the North Pacific this past weekend. An extremely strong non-tropical low developed south of the Aleutian Islands and raced north, deepening to a central pressure estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center at 06Z Sunday as 924 millibars. According to WU weather historian Christopher Burt, this ranks with the Bering Sea storm from November 7-8, 2014, and another one from October 25, 1977, as the strongest extratropical lows observed in the North Pacific since reliable records began in late 1969. Both of those two previous systems developed from the remnant circulations of typhoons, a common source of Aleutian storms that was not in play last weekend. A drifting buoy northeast of Adak--the westernmost town in the United States--reported a pressure of 929 mb, and sustained winds at Adak reportedly reached at least 94 mph. If confirmed, these would be the highest sustained winds on record for Alaska.

We’ll be back by Wednesday at the latest with a report from the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco.

Bob Henson (Paris Agreement, Bering Sea storm), Jeff Masters (Typhoon Melor)



Climate Change Politics Climate Change Hurricane Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Into the future, we all go.
nice lunch time update thanks
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson. I was looking forward to your report on the summit. The info on the storms elsewhere in the world is always appreciated too.

Thanks posters for all the mid-range forecast discussions! Saves me the time of researching, and I would not understand what I was looking at anyway!
The water level at the coastlines
will conquer more
than any Paris talks
ever can.

Miss Nola Roux and Crew send prayers and Love to your pet.

Thanks Pat!
97W near the Caroline Islands intensified into a tropical depression (25 knots) according to Japan Meteorological Agency.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been posted by Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen, Have Fun in Frisco...
Thanks, Bob and Doc!
I will accept a "low Va Va Voom" for now knowing that we all have work to do to earn our future - VOTE each and every election!
My Cats wish your Dog well... me too...
Thanks for the update gentlemen.
Quoting 9. PedleyCA:

My Cats wish your Dog well... me too...


Thanks Ped! Just under 1/2" last night!
Thank you..Great Lakes will be rough for sure..Melor looks like it will be very damaging..Terrible..


Time to eliminate coal-powered electricity generation around the world. If not tomorrow, then at least within the next week. :)

Our future energy mix should consist of: hydroelectric, natural gas, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass.

Notice how I left out nuclear. Until they invent commercial fusion, nuclear should remain static.
14. ADCS
Quoting 13. slavicthunder:

Time to eliminate coal-powered electricity generation around the world. If not tomorrow, then at least within the next week. :)

Our future energy mix should consist of: hydroelectric, natural gas, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass.

Notice how I left out nuclear. Until they invent commercial fusion, nuclear should remain static.


There is no viable near-term solution to reducing global CO2 emissions that doesn't involve nuclear. Opposition to this is generally rooted in ideology and skewed risk assessments rather than science.
15. Inyo
There are many ways to do nuclear that are very safe and produce little or no waste, even setting aside fusion. Throwing them all away is a mistake. And... hydroelectric can be a good component in the case of 'microhydro' and when we already have dams we might as well use them to generate electricity. But it causes a lot of impacts when done on a large scale and is far from sustainable... they destroy wetlands and forests where carbon is sequestered, emit methane when those decompose underwater, and take a huge amount of carbon to build. And in most cases the dams last less than a century, often half that... they silt up, etc. So really, I'd say the opposite of that poster above - keep hydro at existing levels or modest expansion of small scale stuff, and expand nuclear - in a smart and safe way.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7046-hydro electric-powers-dirty-secret-revealed/
Quoting 11. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Thanks Ped! Just under 1/2" last night!

CoCoRaHS 1/2 mile from me reported .13

from : http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2015/12/15/1532730 /editorial-disaster-resilience
Link

Chilly in SoCal, 50F, normal is 66/42, warmer in Toronto....lol
Euro on its 12Z run is bringing the trough out of the west and into the Midwest and maybe into the Eastern US by Christmas. Not cool enough for snow but 50" are much more doable in NYC on Christmas as opposed to 70.

The unseasonably warm weather in the SE this year has made for a crappy hunting season so far. The peak of the season is in late January and early February, hopefully it has cooled down by then. All I'm asking for is average temps, not this 15-20 degrees above normal we've been getting.
Quoting 20. 69Viking:

The unseasonably warm weather in the SE this year has made for a crappy hunting season so far. The peak of the season is in late January and early February, hopefully it has cooled down by then. All I'm asking for is average temps, not this 15-20 degrees above normal we've been getting.


All the deer must be by me then. I woke up to a 6 pointer looking in my window last weekend at about 6:20am. Deer was probably 100 to 110 lbs. Usually see a lot of doe by me but this was the first buck I've seen since 2008 in my area.
12Z Euro moving the axis of this Western Trough into the Midwest @ day 9. Setting the stage for a serious severe weather event for the Eastern half of the US.



Thanks doks.
Members of the U.S. delegation waiting for the final approval of a legally binding treaty prohibiting the burning of all remaining fossil fuels on the last day of the Beijing 2060 Climate Summit, China.



Oh, wait, my mistake. This photograph courtesy of Valdrin Xhemaj/EPA, found at:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news /images-of-the-day-1.2466292
Now..



10 days..

Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro moving the axis of this Western Trough into the Midwest @ day 9. Setting the stage for a serious severe weather event for the Eastern half of the US.




Mix some ice and snow with that....nice..
So we are already at +1C and next year should be even higher considering the strength of the current El-Nino. There is still no way to physically remove CO2 from the atmosphere and industry is still based on the burning of fossil fuels. So why throw out absurd numbers like a +1.5C limit?
Quoting 26. hydrus:

Now..



10 days..




Looks like you posted the same picture twice.
Quoting 28. hydrus:

Mix some ice and snow with that....nice..


Too warm for that but i sure would be worried about severe weather if the Euro pans out for a lot of people east of the Mississippi Christmas EVE and Christmas Day.
Quoting 27. hydrus:




MJO trending toward Phase 8 interesting. Maybe there is hope after all. Phase 8 is a cold phase going into January
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Into the future, we all go.


Still waiting for the new 2016 graphic for the year the climate strikes back.
It's not just the US resistance to a legally binding treaty that made the Paris talks the usual good intentions. China, Russia, India, Indonesia, and Brazil all made it clear they would not agree to any treaty that required penalties or "intrusive" inspections". India actually stated they would continue to mine and burn coal in any amounts needed to "lift the country out of poverty". China has only agreed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030, and there's no number attached to the peak. Brazil says they will cut emissions to 37% below 2005 levels by 2025 mostly by curbing rainforest clearing, something they have shown they are utterly incapable of doing in the past. From the linked article:

"The Paris deal will officially come into force when at least 55 countries accounting for 55 percent of global emissions have formally acceded. (So, for instance, you'd probably need China, the United States, Europe, India, and Russia to all come on board.)"

This has not happened. It remains to be seen if this will happen in the future. What Paris produced is a bare outline for what might be done to curb CO2 emissions. We'll see how well moral suasion works.

Link
Quoting 33. VAstorms:



Still waiting for the new 2016 graphic for the year the climate strikes back.


I have a feeling you will still be waiting for a fortnight or so.
Quoting 29. wartsttocs:

So we are already at +1C and next year should be even higher considering the strength of the current El-Nino. There is still no way to physically remove CO2 from the atmosphere and industry is still based on the burning of fossil fuels. So why throw out absurd numbers like a +1.5C limit?
I agree. Unless we find a way to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere, the 1.5 train has already left the station. Even 2.0 degrees is a stretch goal right now. 2.7 degrees is a goal that may be possible with some commitment and ramping up of non-carbon energy technology. It makes a lot more sense to me to work toward a possible goal than to keep staring at the emperor's new clothes.
Good evening, and thanks for the new post about so many impressive developments, Doc and Bob!

Here a little update on that impressive storm which has hit the Azores today (had a post about it this morning). Dubbed in Germany as "Xola". Satellite animation below shows the East Atlantic in uproar, not only with Xola. All these storms are going northwest, grazing Ireland/UK (currently "Werner" is off their coasts) and to their east shoveling a lot of very mild air into Europe. With no end in sight at present. Maybe one storm may hit us on a more western track one week out, but no winter and freezing temps in the offing - probably for the rest of December.


Saved loop of the last 9 hours with Xola on the right side. Source.


"Xola" with 976mb. Click the map to enlarge it.


Current European IR shot (saved) with Xola on the lower left side.

Red alert over Azores forecasts 150kph winds
portugalpress on December 14, 2015
Weather experts have put the Azores on red alert today as forecasts suggest gusts in already high winds could exceed 150 km per hour.
At least seven flights in and out of the central group of islands have been suspended due to worsening weather conditions.
But now IPMA, the Portuguese sea and atmosphere institute, has upgraded warnings to red which signifies "extreme weather conditions" until at least midnight tonight.
Waves are expected to reach seven metres along the south coast, adds the institute, while rain continues to beat down over the archipelago.
So far, the red alert covers the islands of Sao Jorge, Faial, Graciosa, Pico and Terceira, while the western islands of Santa Maria and Sao Miguel are also under red alert for waves, which they have been warned could reach as much as 15 metres.
Islanders have been on a form of lockdown since Sunday, with schools and creches all closed, reports SIC television news.

natasha.donn@algarveresident.com

An impressive collection of facebook-videos here.

Personally, I can't see the agreement doing much to lower our impact, especially as it isn't legally binding. I think we're likely to see a temperature rise of 3C or more by the end of the century unless there's a massive and dramatic shift in using renewable sources of energy. But that looks rather bleak, at least in the UK, where subsidies were cut for green energy and they're replacing coal power plants with gas rather than increasing renewables.
Quoting 28. hydrus:

Mix some ice and snow with that....nice..
These 10 day forecasts have been even worse than usual over the past couple of months. Last week's forecast for a barnburner of a severe weather outbreak this past weekend has gone out with a whimper. The "cold" front went through here early this morning and gave me a whopping 0.11" of rain. You were closer to the low, so I know you got a lot more wind, but our wind advisory produced a peak gust of 16 mph. It's already up to 73 here. It's going to take a big change in the atmosphere to even get us down to normal over the next 10 days. If anything holds true with the long term models, that might happen by next weekend...maybe.
I had a low Va-Va-Voom once...in college...a VERY long time ago
Quoting 33. VAstorms:



Still waiting for the new 2016 graphic for the year the climate strikes back.

With apologies to Patrap and Velinov..
I agree as well. The 1.5C limit seems quite absurd, especially with regards to this year's big jump to approx. 1.0C above pre-indus. temps.

Lately, Kevin Anderson has been quite vocal about it. He's saying that the overwhelming majority of the IPCC scenarios that keep the global temp. increase within the 2C limit rely on :
1. Emissions peaking in 2010.
2. Massive removal (and sequestration) of CO2 from the atmosphere after 2040-2050 (if I remember correctly).
...Which, if true, is quite problematic.

Also, there has been some kind of blame game between various countries during the COP21, it's clear that at present none of the countries big or rich enough to matter show any real commitment towards the agreement's temp. increase goal, which in itself is very dangerous. They essentially agreed to keep warming the planet, and this alone sounds quite insane to me. In spite of that, I would have prefered them to agree on the 2C limit, because when in about 10-20 years from now we'll reach 1.5C, what will they say then?

And I'm sorry for being a little bit difficult to read sometimes.


Quoting 36. sar2401:

I agree. Unless we find a way to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere, the 1.5 train has already left the station. Even 2.0 degrees is a stretch goal right now. 2.7 degrees is a goal that may be possible with some commitment and ramping up of non-carbon energy technology. It makes a lot more sense to me to work toward a possible goal than to keep staring at the emperor's new clothes.


The use of biofuel coupled to a Carbon sequestration system would reduce the amount in the atmosphere, but the efficiency of C sequestration systems is low (reduces the efficiency of a gas turbine-driven plant from ~60% to ~35%) and the systems are very expensive, so this would not be a solution for the huge volumes of CO2 that need to be extracted. The only thing we can do right now is plant forests like crazy. I don't have numbers for it, but I would expect that this would not make much of a dent in the numbers either :-(
Quoting 43. 999Ai2016:

I agree as well. The 1.5C limit seems quite absurd, especially with regards to this year's big jump to approx. 1.0C above pre-indus. temps.

Lately, Kevin Anderson has been quite vocal about it. He's saying that the overwhelming majority of the IPCC scenarios that keep the global temp. increase within the 2C limit rely on :
1. Emissions peaking in 2010.
2. Massive removal (and sequestration) of CO2 from the atmosphere after 2040-2050 (if I remember correctly).
...Which, if true, is quite problematic.

Also, there has been some kind of blame game between various countries during the COP21, it's clear that at present none of the countries big or rich enough to matter show any real commitment towards the agreement's temp. increase goal, which in itself is very dangerous. They essentially agreed to keep warming the planet, and this alone sounds quite insane to me. In spite of that, I would have prefered them to agree on the 2C limit, because when in about 10-20 years from now we'll reach 1.5C, what will they say then?

And I'm sorry for being a little bit difficult to read sometimes.





The problem with the 1.5C and other scenarios is that the longer we delay in reducing global emissions, the larger cut to emissions it will take to reach that goal. The below graphic shows that quite nicely in a 2C scenario(Thanks to ATTP)


The current pace we are on is in line with the greatest emission pathway scenario. As seen below, the further we go the more difficult it will be to hit lesser goals. I am not optimistic about 1.5C or 2C for the matter (thanks again ATTP)

Quoting 39. sar2401:

These 10 day forecasts have been even worse than usual over the past couple of months. Last week's forecast for a barnburner of a severe weather outbreak this past weekend has gone out with a whimper. The "cold" front went through here early this morning and gave me a whopping 0.11" of rain. You were closer to the low, so I know you got a lot more wind, but our wind advisory produced a peak gust of 16 mph. It's already up to 73 here. It's going to take a big change in the atmosphere to even get us down to normal over the next 10 days. If anything holds true with the long term models, that might happen by next weekend...maybe.


Yep, every time I look at the long range forecast and it says cool weather for a weekend hunt it changes and the weekend ends up being warm. This past weekend it was miserable hunting, humid and 77 on Saturday. I'm supposed to go hunting again Christmas weekend but it looks like it will be warm again. Original forecasts said highs in the mid 60's and now they are saying highs in the low 70's.
Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:



All the deer must be by me then. I woke up to a 6 pointer looking in my window last weekend at about 6:20am. Deer was probably 100 to 110 lbs. Usually see a lot of doe by me but this was the first buck I've seen since 2008 in my area.


Just went camping with my family this weekend, saw 2 bucks hanging out alone and at two separate families of deer. Saw a total of 14 deer and 4 bucks on the trip, along with a lot of other wild life.

Probably the weirdest aspect of the trip is that we got 3 rounds of rain last night on the trip, some of it heavy. Everything was a mess. The point forecast had 0% for our location. I estimate we had around 0.25 last night. It was weird given the inversion and how warm temps are aloft, especially overnight that far inland.

It was as fun adventure though, I love the outdoors and adventurous trips. The unexpected rain in some ways made it more fun.
These charts and numbers are certainly very useful when it comes to decision-making, but according to many scientists they're so many "what-ifs", and "unknown unknowns"... I'll stop there, I am definitely pessimistic about stopping the tide now. Simply looking at the CO2 history chart says it all for me. We're in for a rough ride.

An engineer said (sorry can't cite my source I don't remember it) approximately this : "you know, I've tackled lots of tough engineering problems, and the more I learnt about them the more I got convinced there was a solution to it. What strikes me with climate scientists is that the more they learn about this problem (AGW), the less they seem able to come up with a solution to it."
Quoting 48. Jedkins01:



Just went camping with my family this weekend, saw 2 bucks hanging out alone and at two separate families of deer. Saw a total of 14 deer and 4 bucks on the trip, along with a lot of other wild life.

Probably the weirdest aspect of the trip is that we got 3 rounds of rain last night on the trip, some of it heavy. Everything was a mess. The point forecast had 0% for our location. I estimate we had around 0.25 last night. It was weird given the inversion and how warm temps are aloft, especially overnight that far inland.

It was as fun adventure though, I love the outdoors and adventurous trips. The unexpected rain in some ways made it more fun.



We've been getting rains like that @ my location a lot lately really since late October. Lots of .20 to .30 totals lately but nothing really too heavy. I do expect that we will get some rain tomorrow from Tampa North as a front stalls overhead and then maybe 1" to 2" Thursday Night into Friday per the WPC.

Quoting 48. Jedkins01:



Just went camping with my family this weekend, saw 2 bucks hanging out alone and at two separate families of deer. Saw a total of 14 deer and 4 bucks on the trip, along with a lot of other wild life.

Probably the weirdest aspect of the trip is that we got 3 rounds of rain last night on the trip, some of it heavy. Everything was a mess. The point forecast had 0% for our location. I estimate we had around 0.25 last night. It was weird given the inversion and how warm temps are aloft, especially overnight that far inland.

It was as fun adventure though, I love the outdoors and adventurous trips. The unexpected rain in some ways made it more fun.



We get that here in SE TX with warm air advection and a saturated profile in the boundary layer under the inversion or cap. Drizzle to almost moderate rain as a result. Usually not "Heavy" though.
The Cherry Blossoms are in bloom in D. C.

2015, the year that lost fall & Winter in N. America.

: P
Quoting 51. beell:



We get that here in SE TX with warm air advection and a saturated profile in the boundary layer under the inversion or cap. Drizzle to almost moderate rain as a result. Usually not "Heavy" though.


Most of the rain was sort of a heavy drizzle due to very shallow convection. We did have a brief minute or so where it was surprisingly heavy along with some larger rain drops indicating deeper convective clouds. Very gusty winds too. It was strange but interesting.
Quoting 51. beell:



We get that here in SE TX with warm air advection and a saturated profile in the boundary layer under the inversion or cap. Drizzle to almost moderate rain as a result. Usually not "Heavy" though.


That pretty much sums up the weather here lately.
Quoting 53. Jedkins01:



Most of the rain was sort of a heavy drizzle due to very shallow convection. We did have a brief minute or so where it was surprisingly heavy along with some larger rain drops indicating deeper convective clouds. Very gusty winds too. It was strange but interesting.


Euro jed, is showing decent convection here late Thursday into Friday. Totals could be surprising much higher than some think in some areas north of Tampa on Friday if storms train across the same areas for several hours.
Quoting 38. Envoirment:

Personally, I can't see the agreement doing much to lower our impact, especially as it isn't legally binding. I think we're likely to see a temperature rise of 3C or more by the end of the century unless there's a massive and dramatic shift in using renewable resources of energy. But that looks rather bleak, at least in the UK, where subsidies were cut for green energy and they're replacing coal power plants with gas rather than increasing renewables.
Wrong, maybe 1c to 1.5c.
Cool, and very detailed, story in the Washington Post about the Bering Sea storm. I think you guys would like it.

Bering Sea ‘bomb’ cyclone ties record for strongest storm in North Pacific
I'll take a low va va voom... It's a good start.

Hope everyone has a good week.
Quoting 36. sar2401:

I agree. Unless we find a way to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere, the 1.5 train has already left the station. Even 2.0 degrees is a stretch goal right now. 2.7 degrees is a goal that may be possible with some commitment and ramping up of non-carbon energy technology. It makes a lot more sense to me to work toward a possible goal than to keep staring at the emperor's new clothes.
I think the idea of a 1.5 degree goal is similar to the idea of setting speed limits on highways. You know the limit will be exceeded, but you also know that the psychology of it is that the percentage of excess of a higher limit is greater than that of a lower limit -- if the limit is 55mph most will drive 65, but if the limit is 65 the main traffic flow will be at about 75, which is a lot more dangerous. Shooting at all seriously for a 1.5 degree rise might actually achieve a 2 degree rise.
Quoting 47. 69Viking:



Yep, every time I look at the long range forecast and it says cool weather for a weekend hunt it changes and the weekend ends up being warm. This past weekend it was miserable hunting, humid and 77 on Saturday. I'm supposed to go hunting again Christmas weekend but it looks like it will be warm again. Original forecasts said highs in the mid 60's and now they are saying highs in the low 70's.
It really appears that something is wrong with the models when it comes to the 7-10 day period. Even getting things right for the next day or two seems to be getting away from the forecasters. As an example, the high predicted for today two days ago was 68. That was bumped up to 71 this morning. My actual high has been 75. The high for Saturday was supposed to be 53. That has now changed to 56, and I expect that will continue to be adjusted upward over the next couple of days. The Christmas cold wave of a week ago now seems to be fading into a degree or two below normal. Cleveland is supposed to have their first chance of some snow showers for the season this weekend. Even if that happens, the forecast is for back up into the mid to high 40's Christmas week. The mean temperature so far this month has been 64, a full 16 degrees above average. The average high in Cleveland on Christmas Day is 35. There aren't many shopping days left to even get that to happen, and the lack of cold air up north does not translate into a cold Christmas here.
Quoting 60. sar2401:

It really appears that something is wrong with the models when it comes to the 7-10 day period. Even getting things right for the next day or two seems to be getting away from the forecasters. As an example, the high predicted for today two days ago was 68. That was bumped up to 71 this morning. My actual high has been 75. The high for Saturday was supposed to be 53. That has now changed to 56, and I expect that will continue to be adjusted upward over the next couple of days. The Christmas cold wave of a week ago now seems to be fading into a degree or two below normal. Cleveland is supposed to have their first chance of some snow showers for the season this weekend. Even if that happens, the forecast is for back up into the mid to high 40's Christmas week. The mean temperature so far this month has been 64, a full 16 degrees above average. The average high in Cleveland on Christmas Day is 35. There aren't many shopping days left to even get that to happen, and the lack of cold air up north does not translate into a cold Christmas here.


I think the key here across the deep south Sar the rest of the Winter will be the lack of snow cover across the Northern US which in turn will keep airmassess behind front much warmer than what they would typically be this time of year. If something doesn't change quick then us here in FL may end up with another lackluster Winter.
Quoting 52. Patrap:

The Cherry Blossoms are in bloom in D. C.

2015, the year that lost fall & Winter in N. America.

: P


Fall here was about our 10'th warmest fall out of 145. October was actually near normal. September and NOvember were warm, again about 90-95'th percentile months. December could be record breaking though.

A few isolated blossoms normally come out during warm periods in fall and winter on stressed trees.
The main bloom hasn't had its chilling hours yet and is safe from warmth. Warm spells in February following a cold early winter are much more dangerous for orchards. The earliest peak bloom year
of 1990 had a near record cold December followed by warm January and February. A week long heat wave in mid March finished the process and the peak bloom of March 15, set a record unmatched even by the extreme warm year of 2012. If December/January had been cold that year I would have expected to
break bloom records.
I'm dreaming of a mild Christmas
Just like no one we've ever seen.
All the kids are bawling,
For snow's not falling,
And all the sled hills still are green.

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas,
With every single drop of sweat.
It'll be quite scary
Come January,
If not a flake has fallen yet.

I'm worried 'bout a hot Christmas
When balmy weather takes its toll.
Santa's quite confounded;
With reindeer grounded,
His sleigh is stranded at the Pole.

I'm fearful of a white (hot) Christmas,
A searing, burning kind of Yule.
Late December's tropics
Discussion topics:
Just when, oh when, will it turn cool?



Quoting 56. NativeSun:

Wrong, maybe 1c to 1.5c.

Sources?
Looks like El Niño had a slight uptick as per the new CPC update today

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pd f

Cheers everyone
Quoting 56. NativeSun:

Wrong, maybe 1c to 1.5c.
The global temperature has risen 0.85c over the past century. Even if you don't accept that number as being too uncertain, there is zero doubt that the period from 1980 until today has seen a rise of 0.6c. It stretches credulity to the breaking point to think the total rise for the next 85 years is only going to be 0.4c to to 0.9c above where we're already at. Here's an article that explains all this. Since it's from a bunch of scientists, I'm sure you will ignore the conclusions and check out the latest real news at some place like WUWT instead.
New Orleans hasn't had a true Blue Norther since Dec 23-26 1989.

The banana trees took it on the chin though,as well as the sugar cane fields.

11-14F was the lows.









OH THE WEATHER OUTSIDE'S DELIGHTFUL
AND THE FIRE'S JUST NOT RIGHTFUL.
AND EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW
WHERE'S THE SNOW? WHERE'S THE SNOW? WHERE'S THE SNOW?


------------------------------------------------- -------------------

CHESTNUTS BAKING IN THE OPEN AIR
JACK FROST NOWHERE TO BE FOUND!!


....

Quoting 59. CaneFreeCR:

I think the idea of a 1.5 degree goal is similar to the idea of setting speed limits on highways. You know the limit will be exceeded, but you also know that the psychology of it is that the percentage of excess of a higher limit is greater than that of a lower limit -- if the limit is 55mph most will drive 65, but if the limit is 65 the main traffic flow will be at about 75, which is a lot more dangerous. Shooting at all seriously for a 1.5 degree rise might actually achieve a 2 degree rise.
My experience in trying to enforce speed limits is that they don't exist without a marked police car running radar every five miles. As long as drivers see a cop, they slow down to the limit. No cops and it's only gramps in the slow lane doing the limit. People drive as fast as they feel they need to, or are entitled to, at the time. We will keep using carbon based energy as long as the cost allows us to do so compared to other forms of energy. My preference would be to allow the market dictate when that happens, as it inevitably will. Whether the planet has time to wait without some cops on the shoulder of the road is another question, but even that won't change until we have enough disasters to focus the attentions of the average person.
DNYR: the climate change denying robot – interactive

As climate science continues to be proven correct, climate deniers are quickly becoming an endangered species. Fear not! Introducing DNYR, the climate change denying robot who will ensure you still get your fill of all the robotic arguments climate deniers put out.

•Click on the red button to generate climate change denying arguments. Click on the link underneath the quotes to read the associated news reports

Quoting 69. luderiffic:

Why don't you blame China and India first before tearing down your own country? They are the real problem. Don't tax me to death until they at least get on par with us.
Who says you're going to be taxed to death over climate change? Do you have a link to any law introduced that's going to allow that to happen? There's no question that China and India are big problems in terms of CO2 emissions, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do at least our part for the world regardless of what they do.
Quoting 63. Neapolitan:

I'm dreaming of a mild Christmas
Just like no one we've ever seen.
All the kids are bawling,
For snow's not falling,
And all the sled hills still are green...


Lol, thank you, Nea! You're really a gifted poet :-)) Guess I should contribute a German translation, as forecast for Germany's Christmas is very hot this year as well. German weather fans are already planning their BBQ Christmas :-)


850hpa temps for Europe on Dec 25 according to GFS. Hey, it's not only green but even yellow and orange ;-)
Quoting 71. Xandra:

DNYR: the climate change denying robot – interactive

As climate science continues to be proven correct, climate deniers are quickly becoming an endangered species. Fear not! Introducing DNYR, the climate change denying robot who will ensure you still get your fill of all the robotic arguments climate deniers put out.

•Click on the red button to generate climate change denying arguments. Click on the link underneath the quotes to read the associated news reports


It looks like there are eight quotes, all from Republicans, and three from Donald Trump. Looks like a pretty low budget robot.
Oh well!
Thanks for the report on what happened in Paris.
I suppose that the climate talks will go down in the record books as having attempted to achieve something?

At he end of the day I am at best pessimistic and of course always realistic.
There is probably a lot of inspectors and legislation to wade through next, but at the end of the day its too little too late and once "The Big Planet," takes over with its methane stores and other nasty little surprises, we will see than the attempts of mere mortals to rectify things the things they have instigated are probably worse than useless!

Then again I "could" be wrong?
Quoting 57. largeeyes:

Cool, and very detailed, story in the Washington Post about the Bering Sea storm. I think you guys would like it.
Bering Sea ‘bomb’ cyclone ties record for strongest storm in North Pacific

Very helpful article, largeeyes. Greetings to Berlin. How has winter performed in Berlin so far? :-)
Quoting 69. luderiffic:

Why don't you blame China and India first before tearing down your own country? They are the real problem. Don't tax me to death until they at least get on par with us.


Your answer to all of this is for you to just point your finger at others? The U.S. did have a lot of heavy, dirty industry here. Where did we send these heavy, dirty industries to? While you are pointing your finger you may want to look at which countries you are buying your products from. What good does it do the U.S. to lower its emissions by exporting its dirtiest industries and then import back in the products from countries that agreed to take our dirtiest industries?
Paris Agreement: my country got a bad conscience, obviously:
Germany to set out climate action plan by mid-2016
Source: Reuters - Mon, 14 Dec 2015 15:18 GMT, By Caroline Copley and Klaus Lauer
BERLIN, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Germany will lay out a climate action plan for 2050 by the middle of next year and is talking to industry groups and trade unions about ways to end coal-fired power generation, its Environment Minister said on Monday.
Global leaders clinched a breakthrough deal in Paris on Saturday to transform the world's fossil fuel-driven economy within decades in a bid to arrest global warming.
While Germany's green energy campaign has earned it the reputation of a leader in environmental policy, critics say it needs to set a timetable to scrap coal power if it is to meet its own ambitious long-term climate targets.
"It is completely clear that we need to exit fossil energy sources by the middle of the century," Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks said, adding Germany needed to find a way to cushion the social impact in some regions.
The German government is due to decide on a climate action plan for 2050 by the summer of 2016 and will give more concrete details on a coal exit then, Hendricks told a news conference.
Europe's largest and most dynamic economy generated more than a quarter of its electricity from renewable sources - such as wind and solar power - last year.
But at the same time the phase-out of nuclear power has increased its reliance on brown coal, the dirtiest of all energy sources, which is cheaper than low-emission gas-powered plants.
The coal sector accounted for around 44 percent of electricity generated in Germany in 2014. ...
Quoting 69. luderiffic:

Why don't you blame China and India first before tearing down your own country? They are the real problem. Don't tax me to death until they at least get on par with us.




*LUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change & Foresty

Among the top 10 absolute emitters, only two have per capita emissions that are below the world average. Canada, the United States, and Russia emit more than double the global average per person. On the other end of the spectrum, India's per capita emissions are only one-third of the global average.

Link

Quoting 16. PedleyCA:


CoCoRaHS 1/2 mile from me reported .13

Hi Ped,
We had about 1/50th of an inch of rain yesterday and it took the dust off the olive trees.
It was the first rain in about 6 weeks and next we have at least 2 weeks of fine warm weather, needless to say all the dams are about full so problems there BUT.
What I am concerned about is the fact that we are having a lot of big High Pressures over the Med this winter and its causing a lot of warm air to go to the north of Europe and into zones like Germany and Scandinavia.
As I have said before, back in the 70s I was in Scandinavia during the winter, at about the same time as Grother and Patrap were in Norway and it was seriously cold there with a lot of ice about.
now its 8/c and everybody is having a ball.
I remember pouring water out of a glass on the 3rd floor and it was ice when it hit the ground!

Not much realistic hope out of the Paris talks from our point of view, probably enough to calm the masses!
I see that the raging olive branch fires in our areas are continuing unabated today. Then again who is going to stand in the way of profits?

These guys are hilarious with their deliberate misuse of the y-axis: Link

© Provided by The Independent
A US town has rejected a proposal for a solar farm following public concerns.

Members of the public in Woodland, North Carolina, expressed their fear and mistrust at the proposal to allow Strata Solar Company to build a solar farm off Highway 258.

During the Woodland Town Council meeting, one local man, Bobby Mann, said solar farms would suck up all the energy from the sun and businesses would not go to Woodland, the Roanoke-Chowan News Herald reported.

Jane Mann, a retired science teacher, said she was concerned the panels would prevent plants in the area from photosynthesizing, stopping them from growing.

Ms Mann said she had seen areas near solar panels where plants are brown and dead because they did not get enough sunlight.

She also questioned the high number of cancer deaths in the area, saying no one could tell her solar panels didn't cause cancer.

The area around Woodland is a popular choice because it has an electrical substation allowing the panels to be hooked up to the national grid.

A spokesperson for Strata told the meeting: "There are no negative impacts. A solar farm is a wonderful use for a property like this."

They added: "The panels don't draw additional sunlight."

The council voted three to one against rezoning the land and later voted for a moratorium on future solar farms.
Quoting 81. TimSoCal:

These guys are hilarious with their deliberate misuse of the y-axis: Link


Pretty hilarious response on Twitter.

‏@SeanMcElwee 50m50 minutes ago
.@NRO @powerlineUS no need to worry about the national debt then either!

lol
suck all the energy from the sun

come on
Quoting 79. beell:





*LUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change & Foresty

Among the top 10 absolute emitters, only two have per capita emissions that are below the world average. Canada, the United States, and Russia emit more than double the global average per person. On the other end of the spectrum, India%u2019s per capita emissions are only one-third of the global average.

Link


Thanks for the link....I stand corrected
This looks quite nasty, running at 105 MPH in the middle of the Philippines.

Quoting 84. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lol
suck all the energy from the sun

come on
I hate to say it but that is what I have come to expect from the home of Jesse Helms. There are of course exceptions, but this is also the state that has a regional government which has declared that land use planning shall not include current scientific projections of sea level rise. I think some buns will be bitten.

Chances, are that we might see most of the Antarctic coastline ice free this year if the melting goes on the way its going now.
I'm not an habitual watcher of this zone but its looking interesting right now. As of 15th of Dec.
I hope that the climate "experts," etc have an eye on this as well as the " human populated" zones of the Planet.

Quoting 85. luderiffic:

Thanks for the link....I stand corrected


Since you're such a good sport, one for you.
;-)


And look what happens over the Atlantic.
Quoting 69. luderiffic:

Why don't you blame China and India first before tearing down your own country? They are the real problem. Don't tax me to death until they at least get on par with us.

I reread my comment that you quoted and couldn't find the word "tax" anywhere. I wasn't tearing down my own country. There is more to my country, I hope, than Rep. Stephen King or Ted Cruz or their supporters.
Quoting 67. Patrap:

New Orleans hasn't had a true Blue Norther since Dec 23-26 1989.

The banana trees took it on the chin though,as well as the sugar cane fields.

11-14F was the lows.












Wow, thanks for the video of the ice at Lake Pontchartrain. crazy.

In Baton Rouge, I think it was like 8 degrees. Was home for Christmas from DFW where I think we got down to zero. While in BTR, Exxon had a pretty big explosion that shook the house six mile away.
At least getting more seasonal this weekend...for West Palm Beach.

Sorry guys...there is no enforcement, no penalties...nothing binding.
Quoting 97. bjrabbit:

Sorry guys...there is no enforcement, no penalties...nothing binding.


Better learn to swim and buy a boat, imo.
"A small town in North Carolina has voted for a moratorium on solar farms after a hearing where citizens raised numerous concerns, including the potential that the farms would "suck up all the energy from the sun."

The News-Herald reports that the town council voted 3-1 against a proposal to rezone land for a solar farm. The council had previously approved three other projects.

The paper says citizens expressed distrust and fear of the solar panels.

One former science teacher was concerned that nearby plants would not get sunlight and the potential the solar farm could cause cancer."

Dear god. And people wonder why our country has so many issues.
Quoting 15. Inyo:

There are many ways to do nuclear that are very safe and produce little or no waste, even setting aside fusion. Throwing them all away is a mistake. And... hydroelectric can be a good component in the case of 'microhydro' and when we already have dams we might as well use them to generate electricity. But it causes a lot of impacts when done on a large scale and is far from sustainable... they destroy wetlands and forests where carbon is sequestered, emit methane when those decompose underwater, and take a huge amount of carbon to build. And in most cases the dams last less than a century, often half that... they silt up, etc. So really, I'd say the opposite of that poster above - keep hydro at existing levels or modest expansion of small scale stuff, and expand nuclear - in a smart and safe way.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7046-hydro electric-powers-dirty-secret-revealed/


Nice points, Inyo, although there is no nuclear power option that produces NO waste. Even fission. A major problem with solar and wind (that isn't shared by nuclear) is the reliability of power. One of the ways hydro could be responsibly advanced is to build more pumped storage facilities like the one in the following link. Those can use a static supply of water that just needs to be refreshed due to evaporation to even out the power availability for intermittent utilities. Since it's not in-line with rivers, they don't silt up and can actually be used to provide additional wetlands. There is environmental impact (you have to transition dry land into reservoir), but it's far less than run-of-the-river dams/power.

Or, as you said, we could just build nice pressurized water reactors wherever we need them until we get other energy sources sorted out. While not zero, the amount of waste from nuclear is REALLY low compared to coal and isn't carbon. We just need to choose what we'll do with it from a number of available options. I just hope the current "let it sit in pools at each reactor site until someone in the future does something about it" isn't one of the options on the table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vianden_Pumped_Stor age_Plant
link
Quoting 67. Patrap:

New Orleans hasn't had a true Blue Norther since Dec 23-26 1989.

The banana trees took it on the chin though,as well as the sugar cane fields.

11-14F was the lows.












Before that, Christmas '83 was a bit harsh. "Santa" had to come in before getting the swing set was finished. It was 12F. Nothing close since...
Quoting 66. sar2401:

The global temperature has risen 0.85c over the past century. Even if you don't accept that number as being too uncertain, there is zero doubt that the period from 1980 until today has seen a rise of 0.6c. It stretches credulity to the breaking point to think the total rise for the next 85 years is only going to be 0.4c to to 0.9c above where we're already at. Here's an article that explains all this. Since it's from a bunch of scientists, I'm sure you will ignore the conclusions and check out the latest real news at some place like WUWT instead.


Just using eye balls and some sequence math I would say another .6 in 15 years, putting us at 1.45 by 2030. However, that may be conservative and we could see that in half that time, say 2023.

Considering that we are at .85 now, and we are seeing significant fresh water in the North Atlantic already, we may see some sudden current shifts with dramatic results well before 2.

As Spock would say, "Facinating"
Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 99. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A small town in North Carolina has voted for a moratorium on solar farms after a hearing where citizens raised numerous concerns, including the potential that the farms would "suck up all the energy from the sun."

The
News-Herald reports that the town council voted 3-1 against a proposal to rezone land for a solar farm. The council had previously approved three other projects.

The paper says citizens expressed distrust and fear of the solar panels.

One former science teacher was concerned that nearby plants would not get sunlight and the potential the solar farm could cause cancer.

Dear god. And people wonder why our country has so many issues.


They rejected it because they were afraid it would diminish property values. In their case, a solar farm had recently done just that, so not an unfounded fear. Of course, the news also reported when a loony tunes couple got up and said they were afraid the panels would use up all the sun. I don't blame the reporter... if I'm covering a local news story and someone says something like that, it's DARN sure going in the article. :)

Fun experiment, though: go to your next local government meeting that features public comment about something or other. I guarantee you will hear something stated that is similarly logically baffling. There are those folks in every town, and they all tend to comment at public meetings.
Quoting 79. beell:





*LUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change & Foresty

Among the top 10 absolute emitters, only two have per capita emissions that are below the world average. Canada, the United States, and Russia emit more than double the global average per person. On the other end of the spectrum, India's per capita emissions are only one-third of the global average.

Link


Looking at emissions per capita is one way, but it's the total emissions that feed the bulldog in terms of global CO2, regardless of population. In that regard, China, India, Russia, and Japan join the US as the top 5 emitters. If the EU was included as a country, it would be number three



What's more worrisome is the trajectory of CO2 emissions. China and India are the two large economies that show a constant increase in emissions while the US and EU are slowing or actually decreasing. This was not addressed at all by the recent accords, allowing China to "peak" their emissions by 2030, and India agreed to essentially no slowing of emissions at all.


Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




"The silicon that you'll now find in a solar cell is highly processed. The material is sourced in silica mines, which are often found in regions with heavy quartz concentrations. The silica is refined to reach metallurgical grade. This process takes place in an electric arc furnace..."

"The metallurgical grade silicon is exposed to hydrochloric acid and copper, which produce trichlorosilane gas. Hydrogen is then used to reduce this gas to silane gas, which is in turn heated to make molten silicon."

"Once the silicon (both monocrystalline and polycrystalline) has been properly prepared, it is treated, or 'doped', with phosphorous and boron to form a semiconductor."

"After this stage, the basic properties of the solar panel are present. However, before the panel can be installed, several further procedures are completed. First, the semiconducting silicon disks are coated with titanium dioxide. This makes them less reflective, limiting risks for aircraft."

"The silicon discs are then arranged in a frame, which is often made of aluminum. Aluminum’s low weight allows for easy installation, and increases the number of structures that can easily support solar panels. Each cell is protected by either silicon rubber or butyryl plastic. Glass then covers the cell, unless it will be used in space on a satellite, in which case, plastic is chosen instead."


We own the mines, the furnaces, the chemical factories, the oil fields and refineries!
Quoting 103. JazzChi:



They rejected it because they were afraid it would diminish property values. In their case, a solar farm had recently done just that, so not an unfounded fear. Of course, the news also reported when a loony tunes couple got up and said they were afraid the panels would use up all the sun. I don't blame the reporter... if I'm covering a local news story and someone says something like that, it's DARN sure going in the article. :)

Fun experiment, though: go to your next local government meeting that features public comment about something or other. I guarantee you will hear something stated that is similarly logically baffling. There are those folks in every town, and they all tend to comment at public meetings.
What I saw in reading the original article is that Woodland is an economically depressed area. There are already three solar farms in town and now the company wants to build a fourth. Residents say that having their homes surrounded by hundreds of large solar panels is decreasing their property values. According to Wiki, Woodland is only 1.3 square miles and has a population of 809. The median household income is $22,125, and 28.1% of the population is below the poverty line. Every speaker but two expressed what seem to me to be well founded concerns their town was heading toward being one large solar farm.

Then we have Mr. and Mrs. Tinfoil Hat. Mrs. Hat claiming to be a former science teacher, and saying solar panels cause cancer. Mr. Hat fears that solar panels will suck all the energy out of the sun.

I'm shocked, shocked, I tell you, that the national media is running Mr. and Mrs. Hat as the reason the solar farm was voted down by the city council while ignoring the actual crux of the original article. Of course, the base reason is that this happened in the South, the home of virtually every dolt and moron in the country.
Melor has undergone another period of rapid intensification after completing its eyewall replacement cycle. JTWC just assessed a T6.5, and CIMSS ADT is only slightly below that, so an initial intensity of 125-130kt seems accurate.

Well I'm usually ready for the worst-case scenario when it comes to watching tropical cyclones but this one comes totally unexpected for me...

Quoting 107. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Melor has undergone another period of rapid intensification after completing its eyewall replacement cycle. JTWC just assessed a T6.5, and CIMSS ADT is only slightly below that, so an initial intensity of 125-130kt seems accurate.




Live Channel (live now), special coverage of Melor (Nona)
Link
This storm just never gives up. Lots of people on its path, and I'm also a bit worried for Manila. The A.C.E is gonna be significant I guess.



Link
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Every speaker but two expressed what seem to me to be well founded concerns their town was heading toward being one large solar farm.


Add in the fact that the town got nothing from the deal except a grant for special training for the fire department, and those concerns sound even more well-founded


Quoting 106. sar2401:

Of course, the base reason is that this happened in the South, the home of virtually every dolt and moron in the country.



That DOES seem like the point that the national media are making. *sigh*

When will it be that someone can just tell me the FACTS? Honestly, that's half the reason I lurk around Wunderground.
111. beell
Quoting 104. sar2401:

Looking at emissions per capita is one way, but it's the total emissions that feed the bulldog in terms of global CO2, regardless of population. In that regard, China, India, Russia, and Japan join the US as the top 5 emitters. If the EU was included as a country, it would be number three



What's more worrisome is the trajectory of CO2 emissions. China and India are the two large economies that show a constant increase in emissions while the US and EU are slowing or actually decreasing. This was not addressed at all by the recent accords, allowing China to "peak" their emissions by 2030, and India agreed to essentially no slowing of emissions at all.




It would be short-sighted to only consider per-capita emissions. Balanced it out there at post 92.

The deal-breaker will be negotiating our "climate debt". Regardless of the good/bad works by the rich, industrialized nations over the last 50-60 years all around the globe, approximately 40% of the increase in GHG's is our legacy. Most of it from the US. The sins of the Father, as it were.

Many less developed nations are on the credit side of the balance sheet. There is no way we (The top 5 cumulative emitters) are going on the hook for 40% but a fair-minded assessment would indicate that we do owe more than some. Plenty work left to do here at home-because it's the "right" thing to do and we achieve energy security in doing it.

The consensus is to use 1990 as the baseline for cumulative emissions-so that would place quite a few of our fathers off "the hook". Yours and mine, anyway.

Not a word about some of the good things that carbon-based industry/technology has brought to the world (as a credit to our debt) but you get the general idea of one facet of the "us vs "them" argument from this myopic treatment.

Let the acidic-based, adjective-laced, listings of our sins against the globe begin!
:)
Quoting 100. JazzChi:



Nice points, Inyo, although there is no nuclear power option that produces NO waste. Even fission. A major problem with solar and wind (that isn't shared by nuclear) is the reliability of power. One of the ways hydro could be responsibly advanced is to build more pumped storage facilities like the one in the following link. Those can use a static supply of water that just needs to be refreshed due to evaporation to even out the power availability for intermittent utilities. Since it's not in-line with rivers, they don't silt up and can actually be used to provide additional wetlands. There is environmental impact (you have to transition dry land into reservoir), but it's far less than run-of-the-river dams/power.

Or, as you said, we could just build nice pressurized water reactors wherever we need them until we get other energy sources sorted out. While not zero, the amount of waste from nuclear is REALLY low compared to coal and isn't carbon. We just need to choose what we'll do with it from a number of available options. I just hope the current "let it sit in pools at each reactor site until someone in the future does something about it" isn't one of the options on the table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vianden_Pumped_Stor age_Plant
link
I worked on a couple of pumped storage plants in California, one of them being Helms, the largest in the country at the time. The problem is you need two dams and two reservoirs on two watersheds. Thus, you double the environmental impact for a pumped plant. The upper reservoir has to be a lot higher in elevation than the lower to provide enough head to work the turbines. That always means the upper reservoir is on another watershed and river. When we pumped from the lower to the upper, we also pumped the creatures that lived in the lower. Some of them turned out to be predators to the creatures in the upper watershed. We had no end of grief trying to design screens and filters to keep them out, and we never really did succeed. They were already having silting issues in the lower reservoir when I left, and silting is what eventually kills every hydro plant.

Helms produces about 1200 megawatts of power at full capacity. It takes about 1500 megawatts of power to pump a full run from the lower to the upper. Even though it uses more power than it produces, it's "cheap" power, since we got it off the grid at night. The plant can't produce its own power to do this. Of course, this means you are slugging more CO2 into the atmosphere, since that power came mostly from a fossil fuel plant. When we were building the plant, the only concern we had about CO2 was for air quality in the tunnels when we had to do an inspection. The big advantage of the plant is it's a reliable peaking plant, and not subject to the types of equipment failure you get in a fossil plant. The power isn't free, however, and doesn't really reduce CO2 emissions. There's just no free lunch when it comes to making big time power.
After the cold weather coming this weekend, we warm back up next week into Christmas, with 60s and possibly reaching 70 again.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29
9:00 AM JST December 15 2015
====================================
Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 5.6N 142.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 6.2N 139.2E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Caroline Islands
186 countries and many if not most are going to hit these aims if not surpass these targets. What's important now is for common sense here. We're the world leader, we need to lead in fulfilling this agreement and leading on it. That means common sense, we can't elect a party that will immediately undo this. Or someone who wants to ban Muslim's or throw over ten million people out of America. Certainly not a Ted Cruz who would immediate undo regulations and mock this deal into oblivion. We can't have a party with immense power, who also happens to be the most powerful group that denies AGW, gain the ability to undo this and continue perpetrating the company line on AGW. Too many already misled by this agenda. Luckily the Don and the Cruz's of the world may make a retake of the House and Senate by the Dems a real possibility. With this now a world wide effort, people will come around, can we lead?
Quoting 110. JazzChi:



Add in the fact that the town got nothing from the deal except a grant for special training for the fire department, and those concerns sound even more well-founded





That DOES seem like the point that the national media are making. *sigh*

When will it be that someone can just tell me the FACTS? Honestly, that's half the reason I lurk around Wunderground.
If I lived in Woodland, I'd be concerned about what was happening to my house and my town as well. I wonder what the national reaction would be if ExxonMobil was wanting to add a fourth refinery instead of a fourth solar farm?

Just to make sure my Southern sensibilities weren't being too easily offended, I did a Google news search on Woodland. With its usual efficiency, Google took 0.53 seconds to return about 19,500 stories. Now, I really don't have time to look at all 19,500 stories, but a quick perusal of the top 20 or so all included some variation of the phrase "suck all the energy from the sun". The top headline is "Rural NC town mocked on social media after passing solar moratorium". Well, yes, because we know the dolts and morons all live in rural North Carolina, or some other place south of the Mason Dixon line. The town council members are reporting they are receiving hundreds of hate emails and posts on FB, bemoaning the fact they must be dolts and morons. Amazingly, all the the Ashley's and Brandon's making the posts on FB seem to be from some big city, have no idea what the real issues are, but seem to think they are competent to tell the people of Woodland what they should think and do.

Geez...
@beell,

re: #111. beell 1:22 AM GMT on December 15, 2015

It's CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS, not emissions intensity that matters.

See Archer, Brovkin, 2008, Archer, Eby, Brovkin, Ridgwell, Cao, Mikolajewicz, Caldeira, Matsumoto, Munhoven, Montenegro, Tokos, Inman, 2008.

Accordingly, those countries which contributed the most to the *cumulative* *emissions* are the most responsible for the present situation. On a historically averaged per capita basis, those countries are, first, the United Kingdom, and, second, the United States.
Or, you won't see the South come around as fast as the north on renewable energy options because a large swath of the South does not believe AGW is occurring. Where you would see opposition to small town initiatives and city actions to take steps to offset emissions. And the reason is simple, if a majority in a town or city don't believe AGW is occurring, no way they're going to vote nor have support for projects aimed at renewable energy and movement away from oil. Until we undo the propaganda think that AGW is a fraud by lying scientists, movement will be hard with a divided country think and divided government.
Quoting 111. beell:



It would be short-sighted to only consider per-capita emissions. Balanced it out there at post 92.

The deal-breaker will be negotiating our "climate debt". Regardless of the good/bad works by the rich, industrialized nations over the last 50-60 years all around the globe, approximately 40% of the increase in GHG's is our legacy. Most of it from the US. The sins of the Father, as it were.

Many less developed nations are on the credit side of the balance sheet. There is no way we (The top 5 cumulative emitters) are going on the hook for 40% but a fair-minded assessment would indicate that we do owe more than some. Plenty work left to do here at home-because it's the "right" thing to do and we achieve energy security in doing it.

The consensus is to use 1990 as the baseline for cumulative emissions-so that would place quite a few of our fathers off "the hook". Yours and mine, anyway.

Not a word about some of the good things that carbon-based industry/technology has brought to the world (as a credit to our debt) but you get the general idea of one facet of the "us vs "them" argument from this myopic treatment.

Let the acidic-based, adjective-laced, listings of our sins against the globe begin!
:)
Sorry, I missed #92 before I made my post. You are absolutely right about the concept of dividing the blame, so to speak. There's no doubt if you go back to CO2 emissions since 1800, the former British Empire and the still United States have been the two biggest CO2 emitters by humans in the history of the world. They also provided almost all the manufactured goods in the world up until the last 30 years or so, along with the technology that allows large parts of the world to have electricity, clean water, education. and medicine that saves countless lives every day. Since the British Empire is long gone, the natural focus is the US for cost sharing. I'm certainly willing to negotiate that, but there's no way we owe anyone $4 Trillion for trashing the world.
With all the problems in the world and all we come up with is Paris Climate Deal. Two Paris terrorist attacks and we come with a climate deal that's not worth the paper it's written on!
We don't owe the world, that's offset by the good and order the US has brought since WWI. The world owes us, but that's never been what any of this is about. Four billion some could argue is our duty to the larger world which is also going hard for these goals. Not every country can financially do this and it's our duty to help. World better find a way to get it's financial house in order to do this though. US/Euro exist on debt. Our 18 trillion on top of many of their countries crushing debt makes this very difficult. The West is a debt based economy, that will come home to roost eventually. This is the fly in the ointment that could really unravel this plan. But I have confidence Congress can fix it. *sarcasm* On so many levels, we human kind have gotten ourselves into quite a pickle.
The last 2-1/2 years it's been below normal temperatures in Indiana, lost all of my bees due to cold weather, this year I get a reprieve, my bees are still active, the long range forecast says it will be above normal till after the first of the year here in Indiana. This means my bees will be more active eat more of the stored honey. This is a double edged sword, I'm glad I left them enough honey to last them into the spring.
Without my bees we don't have much food to live on, support the bees!
Also on another note, thanks to the warm weather, and no snow I'm having a contractor come out and replace my roof and valley supports, if we had a heavy snow it could be catastrophic for me and the heavy snow, so this year climate change has been good for me!
Quoting 118. DeepSeaRising:

Or, you won't see the South come around as fast as the north on renewable energy options because a large swath of the South does not believe AGW is occurring. Where you would see opposition to small town initiatives and city actions to take steps to offset emissions. And the reason is simple, if a majority in a town or city don't believe AGW is occurring, no way they're going to vote nor have support for projects aimed at renewable energy and movement away from oil. Until we undo the propaganda think that AGW is a fraud by lying scientists, movement will be hard with a divided country think and divided government.
Says a guy from Wisconsin, a state that produces 50% of its 57% renewable energy from biomass, a contributor to CO2, compared to Tennessee, which produces a mere 35% from renewables, but 20% from hydro and only 15% from biomass. Or Texas, which only has about 2.55% from renewables, but almost all of it is from wind. Alabama only gets 16% of their power from renewables, but about 10% of that is from hydro. Colorado, the home of many climate activists I've met, gets a pitiful 3.1% of their energy from renewables. Idaho, generally not known as a progressive haven, gets 100% of its power from renewables, the only state to do so. California gets 24% of its power from renewables, 11% less than Tennessee. The data is all here if you want to look and educate yourself about this.
Quoting 52. Patrap:

The Cherry Blossoms are in bloom in D. C.

2015, the year that lost fall & Winter in N. America.

: P
Not winter yet
What a beautiful May evening..I mean uh April-no! uh September no that can't be right either uh December evening.....Seriously it is humid and very mild outside at almost 10:00! Where is the cold dammit! I got attacked by gnats this afternoon!
I don't like cold and I don't hunt so I love this weather but who know what winter will bring! Western Panhandle of Florida no frost or freeze Dec. 14 sounds great to me!!!
Walked the dogs in light drizzle in College Park/Riverdale Md Not comfortable, hot and sticky even with a breeze. This mugginess is amazing for DECEMBER. Last few hours of this though, a little cooler tomorrow finally. Current temps locally are mid to upper 60s but those dewpoints put us into the uncomfortable range. College Park seems to be a local hotspot, around us it's mid 60s only.
128. Inyo
yeah nuclear certainly isn't impact free, but solar and wind produces some pollution too, when panels and such are produced. FWIW I am VERY pro solar and wind especially decentralized sources like rooftops and parking lots and highway medians, etc. But we need something else too.

"Water batteries" where you pump water uphill and let it drain downhill require other power to work... they basically just move the timing of the power around. Which can still be useful. But in terms of wetland habitat they are probably near useless because of large fluctuations within a day... no terrestrial wetland species are adapted to that. And if new reservoirs they still displace forests, etc. But they could be some part of the answer.

Quoting 100. JazzChi:



Nice points, Inyo, although there is no nuclear power option that produces NO waste. Even fission. A major problem with solar and wind (that isn't shared by nuclear) is the reliability of power. One of the ways hydro could be responsibly advanced is to build more pumped storage facilities like the one in the following link. Those can use a static supply of water that just needs to be refreshed due to evaporation to even out the power availability for intermittent utilities. Since it's not in-line with rivers, they don't silt up and can actually be used to provide additional wetlands. There is environmental impact (you have to transition dry land into reservoir), but it's far less than run-of-the-river dams/power.

Or, as you said, we could just build nice pressurized water reactors wherever we need them until we get other energy sources sorted out. While not zero, the amount of waste from nuclear is REALLY low compared to coal and isn't carbon. We just need to choose what we'll do with it from a number of available options. I just hope the current "let it sit in pools at each reactor site until someone in the future does something about it" isn't one of the options on the table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vianden_Pumped_Stor age_Plant
link
Quoting 123. sar2401:

Says a guy from Wisconsin, a state that produces 50% of its 57% renewable energy from biomass, a contributor to CO2, compared to Tennessee, which produces a mere 35% from renewables, but 20% from hydro and only 15% from biomass. Or Texas, which only has about 2.55% from renewables, but almost all of it is from wind. Alabama only gets 16% of their power from renewables, but about 10% of that is from hydro. Colorado, the home of many climate activists I've met, gets a pitiful 3.1% of their energy from renewables. Idaho, generally not known as a progressive haven, gets 100% of its power from renewables, the only state to do so. California gets 24% of its power from renewables, 11% less than Tennessee. The data is all here if you want to look and educate yourself about this.


Will do just that. So if Southern states with representatives and a populace that, by percentages, strongly oppose AGW science, how is it these states outdo Northern states in renewable energy? Know it's a complicated picture, but I find it interesting.
130. Inyo
if done properly biomass causes little or no net increase in CO2. If done poorly it can do more harm than good. Not trying to comment on the Tennessee vs Wisconsin thing but just saying.

Quoting 123. sar2401:

Says a guy from Wisconsin, a state that produces 50% of its 57% renewable energy from biomass, a contributor to CO2, compared to Tennessee, which produces a mere 35% from renewables, but 20% from hydro and only 15% from biomass. Or Texas, which only has about 2.55% from renewables, but almost all of it is from wind. Alabama only gets 16% of their power from renewables, but about 10% of that is from hydro. Colorado, the home of many climate activists I've met, gets a pitiful 3.1% of their energy from renewables. Idaho, generally not known as a progressive haven, gets 100% of its power from renewables, the only state to do so. California gets 24% of its power from renewables, 11% less than Tennessee. The data is all here if you want to look and educate yourself about this.
131. beell
Quoting 117. bayesianlogic:

@beell,

re: #111. beell 1:22 AM GMT on December 15, 2015

It's CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS, not emissions intensity that matters.

See Archer, Brovkin, 2008, Archer, Eby, Brovkin, Ridgwell, Cao, Mikolajewicz, Caldeira, Matsumoto, Munhoven, Montenegro, Tokos, Inman, 2008.

Accordingly, those countries which contributed the most to the *cumulative* *emissions* are the most responsible for the present situation. On a historically averaged per capita basis, those countries are, first, the United Kingdom, and, second, the United States.


Some incredible longevity numbers in those papers, bayesian.

Comparing the historically averaged per capita basis emissions for the UK/US will still come down to placement of the baseline year. Which is or will be a part of the politics of AGW. I doubt the UK will claim their share going back to the dawn of the industrial age. Nor will the johnny-come-lately US.
:)

Thanks for the links.
Quoting 129. DeepSeaRising:



Will do just that. So if Southern states with representatives and a populace that, by percentages, strongly oppose AGW science, how is it these states outdo Northern states in renewable energy? Know it's a complicated picture, but I find it interesting.
Maybe the south is trying different energy sores we may not be as dumb as everyone thinks we are! Also we do have more oil than rest of the country!
Quoting 125. washingtonian115:

What a beautiful May evening..I mean uh April-no! uh September no that can't be right either uh December evening.....Seriously it is humid and very mild outside at almost 10:00! Where is the cold dammit! I got attacked by gnats this afternoon!
It seems more like Easter is the next holiday!
134. beell
@119-sar.

Fix your typo. That was trillion with a "T".
:P
2015, No Sneaux fer you !




I for one never believed in Trillions,
Quoting 120. gulfbreeze:

With all the problems in the world and all we come up with is Paris Climate Deal. Two Paris terrorist attacks and we come with a climate deal that's not worth the paper it's written on!

Yep. How dare they have the nerve to work toward a solution against the biggest long-term threat to the planet.
Quoting 442. BaltimoreBrian:
Top 3 heaviest annual rainfalls in Oklahoma City. Annual records begin in 1890.

1. 56.95" 2007
2. 52.78" 2013
3. 52.71" 2015

Your math assignment:

What are the odds of the top 3 annual rainfalls happening in the final 9 years of a 126 year record?

What would the average recurrence interval of such a 126 year period be?

Question 1: The answer is 1 / (126/9) x (125/8) x (124/7) or 1/3,875

Question 2: The answer is 126 x 3,875 or 488,250 years expected between 126 year periods with the 3 heaviest annual rainfalls withing the final 9 years. And if you don't believe me, ask Grothar. He was there the last time ;)
deleted
Quoting 129. DeepSeaRising:



Will do just that. So if Southern states with representatives and a populace that, by percentages, strongly oppose AGW science, how is it these states outdo Northern states in renewable energy? Know it's a complicated picture, but I find it interesting.
First, you are making a huge leap in logic between the percent of population that believes global warming is happening and renewables. 70% of the people in California stated the affirmative to that in a recent poll by Yale yet less than 25% of their energy is from renewables. Only 58% of the people in Idaho agree yet they get 100% of their power from renewables. There is almost zero correlation between the two ideas - use of renewables and agreement with AGW. It's more a matter of what resources (like hydro, wind, and and solar) are available in a state rather than ideology. Almost 100% of the renewables in Wisconsin comes from burning some type of wood because Wisconsin has a lot of trees.

Second, contrary to some of your apocalyptic visions, the South is not the only home of denial. As one example, 63% of the people in Georgia answered in the affirmative when asked if global warming is happening compared to 61% in Wisconsin. 62% in North Carolina, the current object of national scorn, compared to 63% in Minnesota and 62%, tied with NC, in the great Democrat bastion of Pennsylvania. The state with the lowest agreement is Wyoming at 55%, pretty far north and west of the Mason-Dixon line. The good news is that 70% of the people in this country agree global warming is happening. Even 56% of Republicans agree. A record 65% say they are very confident in their appraisal of AGW, and a record 61% say the severe drought in the West was having a very large effect on their belief. In all the previous surveys, a majority did not believe global warming was happening. The world, to me at least, is not a dark and depressing place. People are paying attention and learning. The days for the politicians who are trying to play this to their advantage are numbered. Maybe not as fast as some of us would like to see, but numbered nonetheless.
Quoting 133. Climate175:

It seems more like Easter is the next holiday!
I already have my eggs decorated I mean Christmas tree decorated.I will need to replace the hot chacolate for Santa this year with ice tea instead.
Quoting 134. beell:

@119-sar.

Fix your typo. That was trillion with a "T".
:P
LOL. Fixed. To paraphrase the words of the late Everett McKinley Dirksen, a trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon it adds up to real money. :-)
Quoting 130. Inyo:

if done properly biomass causes little or no net increase in CO2. If done poorly it can do more harm than good. Not trying to comment on the Tennessee vs Wisconsin thing but just saying.


Over the long term of CO2, that's true. In the short term, and especially if you live downwind of a wood burner, that doesn't always fly. There's also the issues of the type of biomass, the kind of fuel it's replacing, and relative energy efficiency of combustion. Unless we burn nothing but downed wood (and even that has forest management issues), burning a tree that would have stood for another 50 or 100 years is not carbon neutral. As Columbia University Earth Institute points out :

Nevertheless, all types of biomass energy are currently considered renewable and carbon neutral and thus qualify for many tax credits, subsidies, and incentives. These include Renewable Energy Credits wherein every megawatt-hour of electricity generated by biomass earns a credit that can be sold to utilities required to purchase a certain amount of renewable energy.

That's why so many biomass plants, and some really shoddy biomass plants, have sprung up over the past 15 or so years. States also love it, since places like (ahem) Wisconsin can appear to be really green while only getting 7% out of their 57% of renewables from sources other than wood product burning. The whole biomass question is pretty complicated in terms of it really being carbon neutral.
Quoting 123. sar2401:

Says a guy from Wisconsin, a state that produces 50% of its 57% renewable energy from biomass, a contributor to CO2, compared to Tennessee, which produces a mere 35% from renewables, but 20% from hydro and only 15% from biomass. Or Texas, which only has about 2.55% from renewables, but almost all of it is from wind. Alabama only gets 16% of their power from renewables, but about 10% of that is from hydro. Colorado, the home of many climate activists I've met, gets a pitiful 3.1% of their energy from renewables. Idaho, generally not known as a progressive haven, gets 100% of its power from renewables, the only state to do so. California gets 24% of its power from renewables, 11% less than Tennessee. The data is all here if you want to look and educate yourself about this.


Biomass is "renewable" while nuclear is not.

*sigh*

Maybe the climate deal will do things for stuff like this. Biomass does far better on the carbon than fossil fuels because it has taken in that carbon from the atmosphere relatively recently, but it's still a net contributor to CO2. Maybe energy.gov will have a plot soon that has "carbon/electric production per capita" that will be better at illustrating the true impact of this. Huge percentages of the non-renewable fraction in Illinois, PA, NY, WA, AL, and SC (among others) are from carbon-neutral nuclear.

OTOH, twelve states over 50% in renewables even without that?! That sounds way better than I would have expected. Suspiciously better.
Flew home on Saturday. Good short flight. Didn't have any issues except for the minor one of the TSA finding the knife I swore I lost last year. How nice of them.

Lost power last night from 1 AM to 6 AM, judging from when the clocks started counting again. Was super windy, the barometer dropped to 29.48" of mercury.

Am enjoying this weather though, putting the lights out this year was a breeze (pun intended). Have yet to wear my coat this winter, I'm pretty proud of that. Some of the Yankees have already worn their coats, so me, the Southern kid, is holding his own this year.
The ferocity of the axis-symmetric, twin upper level off-equatorial anticyclones and Hadley Cell expansion with the ongoing El Nino has been amazing to watch, & is truly unmatched in the modern era.
1982-83 is the closest analog overall wrt streamfunction, but the anticyclones are of course much closer to the equator in that event. Considering all else equal, the HC expansion invigorated by the current NINO is a likely reason for the incredible blowtorch this December, which is exceptional even vs the strong-Super NINO base state.



The anomalous upper level anticyclones straddling the equatorial Pacific have been displaced about 10 degrees or so poleward this year against the Strong-Super NINO composite. IMO, that's a very clear, easily verifiable indication of (ongoing) significant changes in the climatic background state...

Strong-Super NINOs stream function


This year


Quoting 145. JazzChi:



Biomass is "renewable" while nuclear is not.

*sigh*

Maybe the climate deal will do things for stuff like this. Biomass does far better on the carbon than fossil fuels because it has taken in that carbon from the atmosphere relatively recently, but it's still a net contributor to CO2. Maybe energy.gov will have a plot soon that has "carbon/electric production per capita" that will be better at illustrating the true impact of this. Huge percentages of the non-renewable fraction in Illinois, PA, NY, WA, AL, and SC (among others) are from carbon-neutral nuclear.

OTOH, twelve states over 50% in renewables even without that?! That sounds way better than I would have expected. Suspiciously better.
There are only a few western states anywhere near 50% without biomass in all its permutations. California used to get about 15% of their energy from nukes. Not any more. Diablo Canyon (another one I worked on) is the last one, and Diablo is probably on its last legs. No problem though. 2200 megawatts of power and 1500 jobs. California doesn't need either of those. Maybe they can burn redwood trees and get tax credits.
Quoting 146. Astrometeor:

Flew home on Saturday. Good short flight. Didn't have any issues except for the minor one of the TSA finding the knife I swore I lost last year. How nice of them.

Lost power last night from 1 AM to 6 AM, judging from when the clocks started counting again. Was super windy, the barometer dropped to 29.48" of mercury.

Am enjoying this weather though, putting the lights out this year was a breeze (pun intended). Have yet to wear my coat this winter, I'm pretty proud of that. Some of the Yankees have already worn their coats, so me, the Southern kid, is holding his own this year.
Was it still windy today? Really got nothing in the way of wind down here, even with the frontal passage. Alos only got a lousy 0.11" of rain. It's a lot cooler tonight though - all the way down to 50 so far...

BWAAAhahaha...December...what a joke. :-)
Quoting 149. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I wonder how those solar panels light that streetlight up...at night? Must be a battery we're not seeing somewhere.
Quoting 150. sar2401:

Was it still windy today? Really got nothing in the way of wind down here, even with the frontal passage. Alos only got a lousy 0.11" of rain. It's a lot cooler tonight though - all the way down to 50 so far...

BWAAAhahaha...December...what a joke. :-)


Breezy at times but not like last night.
Quoting 152. Astrometeor:



Breezy at times but not like last night.
Hydrus was saying he was getting strong winds last night also. As usual, nothing happening down in the weather black hole. Dense fog is the most exciting thing I've had in the past 10 days, and it looks like I'll have some more tonight. I'll take a video...
Quoting 153. sar2401:

Hydrus was saying he was getting strong winds last night also. As usual, nothing happening down in the weather black hole. Dense fog is the most exciting thing I've had in the past 10 days, and it looks like I'll have some more tonight. I'll take a video...


If you have clear skies, the Geminid meteor shower is peaking tonight. Take a chair out and stare at the sky. Mom said she saw 3 in 5 minutes, but I think her perception of time is off, lol. I never see that many in that time span.
46F and breezy here. Took the dogs out for the shortest possible walk and, lucky me, in the 10 seconds I had a clear view of the eastern sky I saw a Geminid meteor brighter than Sirius drop straight down to the horizon!
157. flsky
Quoting 155. LowerCal:

46F and breezy here. Took the dogs out for the shortest possible walk and, lucky me, in the 10 seconds I had a clear view of the eastern sky I saw a Geminid meteor brighter than Sirius drop straight down to the horizon!

I was lucky to see one Sunday night myself. Fun stuff!
Quoting 56. NativeSun:

Wrong, maybe 1c to 1.5c.

1 is now.
1.5 is unavoidable within 15 years.
And I'm gonna see years at +2, being from 1967.
Millions without power, three dead as typhoon Nona hits PH
by AFP, December 15, 2015 (updated)
Legazpi, Philippines | AFP - Typhoon Melor carved through the central Philippines on Tuesday bringing heavy rain and strong winds that left millions without power and at least three people dead, officials said.
One person died of hypothermia while two others drowned in floods in the poor fishing town of Catarman in Northern Samar province in the Visayas region south of Manila, municipal disaster officer Jonathan Baldo told DZMM radio.
The storm toppled trees and cut electricity to at least seven provinces, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said.
Christmas lanterns and lights, tin roofs and branches littered the streets of the city of Legazpi, which was battered by strong winds.
People who fled from their coastal homes spent a sleepless night in evacuation centres, sprawled on classroom tables and chairs as flying debris swirled around outside.
Melor whipped the vast Bicol peninsula, with a population of 5.4 million people, overnight before slamming into the Romblon islands on Tuesday morning.
Gusts had weakened somewhat by Tuesday morning but were still recorded at 170 kilometres (106 miles) per hour from 185 kilometres per hour on Monday. The storm was expected to weaken further as it heads to Mindoro island and out into the South China Sea later Tuesday, state weather forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in the typhoon-prone Bicol region, where 720,000 people were evacuated as early as the weekend. ...
Authorities were assessing Melor's damage while bracing for another typhoon brewing east of Mindanao, the country's main southern island, said NDRRMC spokeswoman Mina Marasigan. ...



Storm "Nona" in Catarman Northern Samar. (Credits to Emil Aniban for this video)

Update:
Typhoon Nona kills 4 in PH, cuts power ahead of Christmas
Authorities have yet to make contact with some of the badly hit areas and it is unclear if or by how much the death toll would climb
afp/Rappler, Published 7:05 PM, December 15, 2015
161. beell
Leading into the Christmas holiday, 12/21-12/22.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CONUS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH DAY6. HOWEVER...DURING THE DAY7-8 TIME FRAME MODELS SUGGEST A STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL INDUCE MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THIS REGION IF SHORT-WAVE EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. UNTIL THIS FEATURE IS MORE ACCURATELY RESOLVED PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS.

..DARROW.. 12/15/2015

Melor/Nona.


Melor's/Nona's landfalls. From twitter.
Storm Xola which has hit the Azores yesterday, unfortunately caused a fatality:
An employee of the San Roque parish council, Ponta Delgada, died on Monday after being seriously injured when he was hit by a wave, said the president of the municipality to the newspaper Oriental Azores. Portuguese source.


"Xola" with tropical moisture in its luggage swirling over the Azores yesterday.

With Xola on its way towards Ireland, next Atlantic storm is in the making which will be named as Yorrick.


Current saved satellite pic.


Surface map for tomorrow with more warm air advected to Western Europe.
Quoting 139. BaltimoreBrian:


Question 1: The answer is 1 / (126/9) x (125/8) x (124/7) or 1/3,875

Question 2: The answer is 126 x 3,875 or 488,250 years expected between 126 year periods with the 3 heaviest annual rainfalls withing the final 9 years. And if you don't believe me, ask Grothar. He was there the last time ;)
Good one. Important to state the assumption that every year is i.i.d. : independent (no correlation between years) and identically distributed.
Quoting 157. flsky:


I was lucky to see one Sunday night myself. Fun stuff!


I walked to the golf course with a chair and sat for an hour watching... saw 8 beautiful streaks. impressive. It was fun as I had watched www.slooh.com earlier and saw a lot from the african coast.
November GISS down by only 0.01° on record October. from Nick Stokes:

As reader David Sanger noted November GISS global average is out, at 1.05°C anomaly. That would be the hottest in the record, if they had not increased October to 1.06°C. The late rise in Oct is not unexpected, since as Olof noted, Brazil and Greenland came in late and relatively warm. TempLS Oct went up too.

Most of the indices now agree on a very slight reduction from October to November. TempLS mesh is down 0.035°C; the NCEP/NCAR index was down about 0.05°. TempLS grid was down 0.01°C, and even the troposphere indices from satellite showed a similar small drop. TempLS mesh and GISS are generally more sensitive to polar changes, which were not large this time.

In other news, December is looking very warm indeed, in the NCEP/NCAR index. I had earlier written about a huge peak in early October, which made October a record month by a great margin. The peak of recent days is much larger again, almost reaching 1°C (1994-2013 base) and staying there for several days, though the latest reading was down to a mere 0.&°C. The average for December so far stands at 0.794°C, 0.23°C higher than October's record.

Even the sea ice is responding. Both Arctic and Antarctic are well down.

Here is the GISS map of anomalies, from here:




More ...
Quoting 146. Astrometeor:

Flew home on Saturday. Good short flight. Didn't have any issues except for the minor one of the TSA finding the knife I swore I lost last year. How nice of them.

Lost power last night from 1 AM to 6 AM, judging from when the clocks started counting again. Was super windy, the barometer dropped to 29.48" of mercury.

Am enjoying this weather though, putting the lights out this year was a breeze (pun intended). Have yet to wear my coat this winter, I'm pretty proud of that. Some of the Yankees have already worn their coats, so me, the Southern kid, is holding his own this year.


Winter 1997-98 I did not wear my coat until an arctic outbreak mid March 1998. Winter 2011-12 and 2012-13 I did not wear my winter coat at all in DC
Quoting 133. Climate175:

It seems more like Easter is the next holiday!


Oldtimer rule in Tallahassee was "don't plant the garden till after Easter"
Quoting 142. washingtonian115:

I already have my eggs decorated I mean Christmas tree decorated.I will need to replace the hot chacolate for Santa this year with ice tea instead.


Somebody in the house sneaked down in the middle of the night and turned the AC on. I am peeved even if it's only a dollar or so of power because it is cooler finally this AM outside.
Ah. "Not legally binding" and "voluntary" those are awesome words when it comes to this attempt to redistribute wealth in the world.

Great job by the U.S. Congress to keep our tax dollars in this country and benefiting our people.
174. MahFL
Quoting 172. tampabaymatt:




Hmm, 6 inches of rain for the Northern Sierra ? That could be 120 inches of snow....
175. MahFL
Quoting 171. georgevandenberghe:



Somebody in the house sneaked down in the middle of the night and turned the AC on. I am peeved even if it's only a dollar or so of power because it is cooler finally this AM outside.


You sound like Mr Grinch !
176. vis0

Quoting 151. sar2401:

I wonder how those solar panels light that streetlight up...at night? Must be a battery we're not seeing somewhere.
Hey 1 of the ideas i posted 5 yrs ago on Wxu, except my question had 3 Qs:

0)  The amount of cables/optics needed for the following ideas. (maybe store the energy and to assure max transfer then "shot" the stored solar power via the cables as just before "shooting" the stored solar energy every cable is checked via compu'r analaysis of cables so non of the previous stored solar power is lost via a bad feed.


1)   How do we get (first) friendly**1** countries to send their sunlight over to neighboring countries during that neighboring country's nighttime hours (mt simple thought was if both agree to share their sunlight hours, that's it. EXAMPLE:: Germany lights up England's 2 or 3 hrs of the morning as Germany gets sunrise first, then England (or country(ies) in Britain's  time slot sends evening sunlight towards Germany**2**


2)  Maybe start first by sharing sunlight Latitudinally as areas of Southern Canada power Alaska therefore less oil is needed for areas of Alaska that has wildlife protected.  Alaska to Washington State, the rest of the 59 states to power that NYC Broadway MEGA neon Hotel sign that is too bright and lets no one next door, sleep.


3) Fiber optics / mirrors can be used atop buildings when those buildings are blocking solar panels as fiber optics can be easily attached to buildings and bend around the buildings walls to go from rooftop light source (sunlight) to shot light towards traffic lamp panels. (this was part of another idea i posted here on WxU / other sites as using fiber optics in big building to light up rooms as batteries on rooftops store extra energy for cloudy days, add the ability to harness wind (as stated on my 2 last active blogbytes) and one could have Hydro (cleanly) powering 20% of the world, solar another 15%, Windstreams 60% and other natural means as hydro-ion rivers ~4% and nuclear 1% for those certain areas of the world where wind nor sunlight is viable and on stand-by and "vwualla" no pollutant besides cleaning the areas where static motion (river beds silt, panels build up soot, wind turbines attract soot) build up occurs
============smelly footnotes================

**1**:: Here is were Diplomat have to come in. Does country "1B" share with a country "2A" if either country has laws that  are breaking human rights laws. My point of view is no, but as time goes by the country breaking human right laws will see "the light" in noticing if it can eventually stop abusing human being (or any living thing, as Earth) it can better its economic status.

**2** Just by the laws of Physics Morning sunshine has a better chance of creating more power/energy due to PM cloud build up, smog build up, soot build up etc.  That means contracts have to be written to assure that the final amount of energy passed on are equal to the participating countries.

Was going to add an Fx'D animation showing a pink bunny w/ a drum inside the lamp in reply to sar2401s Q as to "where is the battery", but figured that animation might get me a tmp. ban as it did a few years ago.

of course i could be 99.9% wrong but its a start...
Thanks for the Blog update on the Paris Treaty. Regardless of what happens in each Country in terms of opposition from the ruling elite (Congress, Parliament, etc), energy companies/economic sectors, and consumers who like cheap energy regardless of negative downstream effects, at least the World leaders have made a clear statement, based upon the body of scientific evidence, as to the importance of curtailing fossil fuel emissions to help to try to mitigate some of the effects of global warming.

Here is the Conus forecast for today:



Quoting 173. Sandy82579:

Ah. "Not legally binding" and "voluntary" those are awesome words when it comes to this attempt to redistribute wealth in the world.

Great job by the U.S. Congress to keep our tax dollars in this country and benefiting our people.


That's one conspiratorial way to look at it. Some would say that it seems highly unlikely that a small group of scientists with no vested interest are engaged in a worldwide conspiracy so convincing that 196 countries signed on to take action all in the name of redsitrubting the miniscule wealth you think you have. I have very bad news for you about reality.

In other news, it is quite refreshing to see those opposed to science drop their questioning of the science in exchange for showing their true motives for action based in economic conspiracy and fear.
The redistribution of wealth argument, in favor of the poorer Counties/Peoples is a fallacy. Europe and the United States is where the industrial revolution began and flourished, based upon local fossil fuels (coal) for steel production and the like and the importing of oil from the Middle East to fuel combustion engines. While this domination continued for decades, with the concurrent rise in greenhouse gases, other Countries have followed the same economic model (China/Asia/ etc) and they are following the same development "bell curve" that Europe and the US went through (maximum use of fossil fuels to maximize economic growth within the established regime/model). Currently, there has been a redistribution of wealth from the United States/Europe to China (which owns the majority of the US debt and substantial real estate in this Country and in Europe) and our Congress in the United States allowed this to happen over the past 50 years. Congress allowed the huge trade imbalance between the US and China, allowed US companies to off-shore production to Asia, and Americans (and others in the world) funded the Chinese economic explosion by buying Chinese/Asian products without complaint (or demanding US made products) while the top money elite/shareholders have laughed all the way to the bank.

Those that argue that the current efforts against global warming is part of a global movement to redistribute wealth from the rich and powerful to the "poor" in the world are sorely misinformed; It's a matter/issue that impacts all people, rich and poor, in the world. I cannot defend the US Congress on this one; they blew it decades ago and continue to do so.

Edited Caveat:

In deterrence to the fossil fuel economic revolution (which was well-intentioned), we did not know until the past few decades and the science, that the burning of fossil fuels for just over 100 years now, would have such an impact on global temperatures/global warming. This is the un-intentioned byproduct and the question now is whether we continue on the same bell curve or use science and technology to help move us quickly towards renewable-clean energy sources.
Another bust for Central Florida as the rain fizzles off shore. Looking like we might get something Friday as th front plows through the state.
Quoting 180. Bucsboltsfan:

Another bust for Central Florida as the rain fizzles off shore. Looking like we might get something Friday as th front plows through the state.


Thursday night into Friday looks promising for rain for us. I'm still at just a trace of rain for the entire month, nothing measurable has fallen into my gauge.
snow flurries this morning in el paso....too warm for it to stick but fun nonetheless
183. MahFL
Truckee, CA forecast is for up to 43 more inches of snow through 12/24...
Houston

well...i just switched to the other office and the snow has turned to graupel.......still nothing sticking but hey......it's beginning to look a lot like christmas
Quoting 185. ricderr:

well...i just switched to the other office and the snow has turned to graupel.......still nothing sticking but hey......it's beginning to look a lot like christmas
Meanwhile in D.C..........
Quoting 186. washingtonian115:

Meanwhile in D.C..........



Well there it is....sea levels penetrated all the way to DC. Thanks to climate change, it's actually beautiful.
Quoting 185. ricderr:

well...i just switched to the other office and the snow has turned to graupel.......still nothing sticking but hey......it's beginning to look a lot like christmas


You're in a very narrow ribbon of clouds, it's sunny all around you!
Very high dewpoints in FL today ahead of the front.

Quoting 186. washingtonian115:

Meanwhile in D.C..........


updated.. intended to respond to RitaEvac's quote, not Washi's nice picture.

"
Well there it is....sea levels penetrated all the way to DC. Thanks to climate change, it's actually beautiful."

My backyard citrus (in pots) is doing fine. I get lots of lemons every year for pies and cooking. (Would send pix but wunderground upload still isn't working for me).

The Potomac is tidal in DC. THe Mall and areas near the river are near sea level and we are vulnerable to storm surge. A few feet of sea level rise would have major impacts on us.
Quoting 190. georgevandenberghe:


updated.. intended to respond to RitaEvac's quote, not Washi's nice picture.

"
Well there it is....sea levels penetrated all the way to DC. Thanks to climate change, it's actually beautiful."

My backyard citrus (in pots) is doing fine. I get lots of lemons every year for pies and cooking. (Would send pix but wunderground upload still isn't working for me).

The Potomac is tidal in DC. THe Mall and areas near the river are near sea level and we are vulnerable to storm surge. A few feet of sea level rise would have major impacts on us.


DC and NYC gonna have problems down the road
You have to start somewheres! Thanks for the update gentlemen!
After a low of 25 this am......all the way to 33 thus far.....yikes! Ae we going into global cooling?(TONGUE IN CHEEK) lol

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 15 Dec 9:00 am PST
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 15 Dec 8:50 am PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Chill Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (f) (mph)
15 Dec 8:50 am PST 33 23 65 ESE 4G05 OK
15 Dec 8:40 am PST 32 23 68 E 3G04 OK
15 Dec 8:30 am PST 32 23 68 SE 4G05 OK
15 Dec 8:20 am PST 32 23 70 S 4G06 OK
15 Dec 8:10 am PST 32 22 67 ESE 3G06 OK
15 Dec 8:00 am PST 34 23 65 ESE 2G03 OK
15 Dec 7:50 am PST 33 23 65 SSE 1G03 OK
15 Dec 7:40 am PST 32 23 69 S 2G04 OK
15 Dec 7:30 am PST 28 20 72 W 1G03 OK
15 Dec 7:20 am PST 28 20 72 N 1G02 OK
15 Dec 7:10 am PST 27 20 75 SSW 3G05 OK
15 Dec 7:00 am PST 26 19 76 S 1G04 OK
15 Dec 6:50 am PST 26 19 75 S 3G04 OK
15 Dec 6:40 am PST 26 19 75 SSE 3G05 OK
15 Dec 6:30 am PST 26 19 75 E 2G03 OK
15 Dec 6:20 am PST 26 19 76 ESE 2G03 OK
15 Dec 6:10 am PST 26 19 76 S 3G04 OK
15 Dec 6:00 am PST 26 20 77 SSE 2G04 OK
15 Dec 5:50 am PST 26 20 79 E 1G04 OK
15 Dec 5:40 am PST 26 20 77 SE 1G02 OK
15 Dec 5:30 am PST 26 21 80 S 2G03 OK
15 Dec 5:20 am PST 25 20 80 SSE 1G02 OK
Quoting 179. weathermanwannabe:

The redistribution of wealth argument, in favor of the poorer Counties/Peoples is a fallacy. Europe and the United States is where the industrial revolution began and flourished, based upon local fossil fuels (coal) for steel production and the like and the importing of oil from the Middle East to fuel combustion engines. While this domination continued for decades, with the concurrent rise in greenhouse gases, other Countries have followed the same economic model (China/Asia/ etc) and they are following the same development "bell curve" that Europe and the US went through (maximum use of fossil fuels to maximize economic growth within the established regime/model). Currently, there has been a redistribution of wealth from the United States/Europe to China (which owns the majority of the US debt and substantial real estate in this Country and in Europe) and our Congress in the United States allowed this to happen over the past 50 years. Congress allowed the huge trade imbalance between the US and China, allowed US companies to off-shore production to Asia, and Americans (and others in the world) funded the Chinese economic explosion by buying Chinese/Asian products without complaint (or demanding US made products) while the top money elite/shareholders have laughed all the way to the bank.

Those that argue that the current efforts against global warming is part of a global movement to redistribute wealth from the rich and powerful to the "poor" in the world are sorely misinformed; It's a matter/issue that impacts all people, rich and poor, in the world. I cannot defend the US Congress on this one; they blew it decades ago and continue to do so.

Edited Caveat:

In deterrence to the fossil fuel economic revolution (which was well-intentioned), we did not know until the past few decades and the science, that the burning of fossil fuels for just over 100 years now, would have such an impact on global temperatures/global warming. This is the un-intentioned byproduct and the question now is whether we continue on the same bell curve or use science and technology to help move us quickly towards renewable-clean energy sources.



That burning of fossil fuels would lead to warming has been known for more than a hundred years. There was a period from about 1970 to 1980 where it was thought that aerosol pollution from other human activities would cancel out the expected warming and result in cooling but by the early 80s it was clear this wouldn't happen. I remember as a kid in the late 60s reading that warming was considered likely though there wasn't yet appropriate concern about all of the consequences.

That said, my criticism is only of the caveat, I agree completely with the rest of the post.
Quoting 183. MahFL:

Truckee, CA forecast is for up to 43 more inches of snow through 12/24...

Bring it! I'm ready, the forests & reservoirs need it, and our local economy could use the stimulus of an extended ski season.

p.s. Just don't let it all melt away in a multi-day rainstorm like it did in January 1997..
Ravi Shankar has passed away at 92.

What a master of the sitar and life. He will be sadly missed.
Nirvana welcomes Him.

194. georgevandenberghe
12:12 PM EST on December 15, 2015

Your point is well taken and illustrates the quagmire; whether we knew 100 years ago or today, much of the world's present economy-energy production is based on/and the result of fossil fuels/petroleum product development (from plastic products to gas in the planes, trucks, and trains that deliver goods to the market and the cars that we drive globally to go to work and shop for the goods). Turning this ship around towards less dependence on fossil fuels and moving towards renewable energy is going to take decades to accomplish but doing nothing to curb greenhouse gasses would be a longer term disaster. I don't pretend to know where we will be on these issues 20-50 years from now.
we got what we most of us figured, NOTHING, done but empty promises and of course an expense paid vacation in Paris for the politician. You know the best thing to do is create an app to replace politicians and democratize it with weekly votes via a smartphone or laptop by the public which is who is paying the bill anyhow. Wasted time, money and life of all sorts as those who play with playmates in the bubble filled Jacuzzi in Paris drinking the top of the line champagne of the day. Nothing will change as the real truth be known we all are past the point of no return.
Quoting 183. MahFL:

Truckee, CA forecast is for up to 43 more inches of snow through 12/24...


43 inches more than we'll get. Maryland ski resorts, even Wisp in Garrett County, which is elevated and in the extreme west, have NOTHING.

If you don't live in the northern Plains or Northwest, kiss your chances of a white Christmas goodbye.

My Mother (83) does not follow the science but believes in global warming; she called me last night to say that global warming must be true because it was 80 degrees in South Florida yesterday and she never recalls such a warm December in all her years living there............................................. ... :)


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
In 20 years it will be warmer than today.

In 50 years it will be warmer than 20 years from now, with more WV per square meter of atmosphere.

That, is the future.

The US alone uses/burns thru 20 million bbls of oil a day.

It will run out.

As will the coal.

Then the CO2 from fossil fuel burning/usage will stop.

But the atmosphere then, will be a very different one, than 50 years from now.

In my life, just 55.9 years, the CO2 ppm has gone up from 315 to 400ppm.






So here in NW Florida we're going to have a cool down to normal highs for the weekend of around 60 but then the extended forecast is showing we warm right back up to a high of 76 on Christmas, just 14 degrees above normal. So much for El Nino giving the SE some cool and wet weather. It's been dry and warm for the most part so far since summer ended.
Quoting 203. 69Viking:

So here in NW Florida we're going to have a cool down to normal highs for the weekend of around 60 but then the extended forecast is showing we warm right back up to a high of 76 on Christmas, just 14 degrees above normal. So much for El Nino giving the SE some cool and wet weather. It's been dry and warm for the most part so far since summer ended.


We've been very dry in W C FL since mid September. The pattern so far this dry season has resembled more of a strong La Nina than a strong El Nino. The CPC's winter outlook for FL looks to be completely busted unless this ridging pattern changes.
To all the good folks who gave prayer and well wishes to my Avatar Josie, our 7y.o. Yellow/White Lab, we just received a call from the Doctor(DVM) telling us that the 3-4" growth in Josie's urinary bladder that was surgically removed is BENIGN FIBRO POLYP! and that they feel they got it all out! This is great great news as most growths in canine bladders are malignant( about 80%) and the location in the bladder made for easy removal. My wife and I want to thank all those folks who kept Josie in their prayers, the well wishes they sent, there are a great group of folks on here! Josie still on the mend(she has a big owie on her tummy) but is at about 90% after 1 week and back to playing her hide and seek games! Josie is a dog that has LOVE written all over her! As do so many from this WEATHER BLOG! Thanks again!
Quoting 204. tampabaymatt:



We've been very dry in W C FL since mid September. The pattern so far this dry season has resembled more of a strong La Nina than a strong El Nino. The CPC's winter outlook for FL looks to be completely busted unless this ridging pattern changes.


This Sooo Cal blogger is still hoping for more rain come Jan-April timeframe........before I let loose with a hissy fit!
Quoting 196. Patrap:

Ravi Shankar has passed away at 92.

What a master of the sitar and life. He will be sadly missed.
Nirvana welcomes Him.



Indeed, a musical influence. I like the music of his daughter Norah Jones.
Here in the boondocks near Brooksville, the nighttime minimum temperature has failed to get below 70 degrees for the last two nights. These are late May/early June average lows here. Sure, El Nino years are warm years, but I have never seen such an extended period of warm weather so late in the year.

At least it'll be in the low 40's for a couple of nights going into this weekend, then it's right back to mid-80's daytime highs in time for Christmas. My Phoenix Sylvestris palms are enjoying it (they survived a 19-degree morning last winter without ill effects). El Nino above normal precipitation? It has yet to materialize.
Click on my avatar and see Josies mustache right below her nose......bust me up laughing everytime!
Quoting 174. MahFL:



Hmm, 6 inches of rain for the Northern Sierra ? That could be 120 inches of snow....


I'm not going to hold my breath - however, so far stuff's happening so I'm not complaining. Long as we don't get weather warm enough to keep it melting between storms...
Quoting 207. Pipejazz:


Indeed, a musical influence. I like the music of his daughter Norah Jones.


I learn something new every day online.......I did not know that the very talented Norah Jones was his daughter.
Quoting 183. MahFL:

Truckee, CA forecast is for up to 43 more inches of snow through 12/24...


Awesome. We get our summer irrigation through Truckee-Carson Irrigation District (TCID.)
Quoting 210. nonblanche:



I'm not going to hold my breath - however, so far stuff's happening so I'm not complaining. Long as we don't get weather warm enough to keep it melting between storms...


It's tough what to ask for and when during Strong El Ninos in California. Get a moderate/heavy snow early and have a pineapple express storm melt it all say in Dec-Jan to fill the lakes. An then heavy snow rest of winter to be melted during spring/summer normally which will add more melt to the lakes. What we do not want is heavy snow all winter and then get the pineapple warm storms to melt it all in March/April causing massive flooding and a lot of wasted valuable water.
Nora Jones got some very good musical genes from Dad............................
Quoting 147. Webberweather53:

The ferocity of the axis-symmetric, twin upper level off-equatorial anticyclones and Hadley Cell expansion with the ongoing El Nino has been amazing to watch, & is truly unmatched in the modern era.
1982-83 is the closest analog overall wrt streamfunction, but the anticyclones are of course much closer to the equator in that event. Considering all else equal, the HC expansion invigorated by the current NINO is a likely reason for the incredible blowtorch this December, which is exceptional even vs the strong-Super NINO base state.



The anomalous upper level anticyclones straddling the equatorial Pacific have been displaced about 10 degrees or so poleward this year against the Strong-Super NINO composite. IMO, that's a very clear, easily verifiable indication of (ongoing) significant changes in the climatic background state...

Strong-Super NINOs stream function


This year





What is it mean?
Some of the 12Z Guidance coming in is showing 20" of rain the next 10 days across parts of the FL Panhandle. Tremendous signal for heavy rains across the SE US next week.
Quoting 203. 69Viking:

So here in NW Florida we're going to have a cool down to normal highs for the weekend of around 60 but then the extended forecast is showing we warm right back up to a high of 76 on Christmas, just 14 degrees above normal. So much for El Nino giving the SE some cool and wet weather. It's been dry and warm for the most part so far since summer ended.


Well don't look at the models even some ensembles showing well over 20" across NW FL extending up to the Appalachians. Pretty incredible signal developing on the models. Well just have to see if these trends continue.
Quoting 208. BrooksvilleFl:

Here in the boondocks near Brooksville, the nighttime minimum temperature has failed to get below 70 degrees for the last two nights. These are late May/early June average lows here. Sure, El Nino years are warm years, but I have never seen such an extended period of warm weather so late in the year.

At least it'll be in the low 40's for a couple of nights going into this weekend, then it's right back to mid-80's daytime highs in time for Christmas. My Phoenix Sylvestris palms are enjoying it (they survived a 19-degree morning last winter without ill effects). El Nino above normal precipitation? It has yet to materialize.


Hang in there it appears the SE US is about to get blasted next week. Quite the signal unfolding.

Models started this trend yesterday and it hasn't stopped as now the models are beginning to bring the big Western trough East across the Midwest opening up the Gulf Of Mexico.
We'll see if it materializes, I'm not going to hold my breath. This last front that came through was supposed to bring us some decent rains but it stalled across the middle part of the country and weakened, ended up just bringing us some very light showers.
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you don't live in the northern Plains or Northwest, kiss your chances of a white Christmas goodbye.


Too hot to kiss...
Quoting 34. sar2401:

It's not just the US resistance to a legally binding treaty that made the Paris talks the usual good intentions. China, Russia, India, Indonesia, and Brazil all made it clear they would not agree to any treaty that required penalties or "intrusive" inspections". India actually stated they would continue to mine and burn coal in any amounts needed to "lift the country out of poverty". China has only agreed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030, and there's no number attached to the peak. Brazil says they will cut emissions to 37% below 2005 levels by 2025 mostly by curbing rainforest clearing, something they have shown they are utterly incapable of doing in the past. From the linked article:

"The Paris deal will officially come into force when at least 55 countries accounting for 55 percent of global emissions have formally acceded. (So, for instance, you'd probably need China, the United States, Europe, India, and Russia to all come on board.)"

This has not happened. It remains to be seen if this will happen in the future. What Paris produced is a bare outline for what might be done to curb CO2 emissions. We'll see how well moral suasion works.

Link
Hmmm....It looks to me like all that was really accomplished was a lot of people getting a vacation in Paris...
Quoting 151. sar2401:

I wonder how those solar panels light that streetlight up...at night? Must be a battery we're not seeing somewhere.

We have a lot of them in my town in Spain,
The battery is kept in the bottom of the lamp post in an enlarged base similar to a small barrel.
Quoting 223. PlazaRed:


We have a lot of them in my town in Spain,
The battery is kept in the bottom of the lamp post in an enlarged base similar to a small barrel.


That's interesting, thanks for clarifying. It's hard to tell when someone simply posts a picture with zero explanation.
Just a few light sprinkles across Central Fl today. Basically a non event. Rain chances higher on Friday.
Quoting 220. 69Viking:

We'll see if it materializes, I'm not going to hold my breath. This last front that came through was supposed to bring us some decent rains but it stalled across the middle part of the country and weakened, ended up just bringing us some very light showers.


Lots of time for things to zero in on what maybe coming but it appears the front that moves thru Friday comes back as a warm front Monday and interacts with a strengthening southern jet with impulses riding along the front from the Gulf. CMC has near 20" totals thru day 10, GFS 14" totals, and the Euro 5" across the FL Panhandle. The thing is models are showing this in the 6 to 8 day period and lasting past day 10 so the 14" amounts on the GFS could pan out.
Quoting 204. tampabaymatt:



We've been very dry in W C FL since mid September. The pattern so far this dry season has resembled more of a strong La Nina than a strong El Nino. The CPC's winter outlook for FL looks to be completely busted unless this ridging pattern changes.


Completely agree. We should see some rain later in the week but it is looking more and more like this December will look nothing like December of '97.
Quoting 223. PlazaRed:


We have a lot of them in my town in Spain,
The battery is kept in the bottom of the lamp post in an enlarged base similar to a small barrel.
The people in Spain must all be very nice. In a lot of parts of the US, the barrel and battery would be gone within 24 hours after it was installed.
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:



Completely agree. We should see some rain later in the week but it is looking more and more like this December will look nothing like December of '97.


Been dry so far across C FL but models keep trending wetter going forward especially across the FL Panhandle where models are showing a significant amount of rain next week. I have noticed that some of the stronger El-Nino's held the heavy rains off till around Christmas ie 1982 & 1987. So it could be our closest analog could be 1982 and not 1997
Quoting 222. Loduck:

Hmmm....It looks to me like all that was really accomplished was a lot of people getting a vacation in Paris...
LOL. It looks to me like you can't tell the difference between issues that still need to be worked out compared to everyone got a free vacation. When I see a post like yours, it makes me regret ever doing any research before I post. Lots easier just to do one liners.
231. Inyo
so far worst el nino ever, first part of winter ruined in most of new england, overcast drizzle and 40s instead of snow, and meanwhile the snow in the Sierras in CA can't even break average. I sure hope it gets better moving into January, but the pattern before then looks like garbage. Sad.
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:



Completely agree. We should see some rain later in the week but it is looking more and more like this December will look nothing like December of '97.
At least for the next seven days, it looks like a bust. I'd like to think we'll get some decent rain toward the weekend but the record for models isn't good so far. Given my 0.11" for the month, the previous forecasts for moderate to heavy rain certainly haven't worked. However, El Nino usually makes its presence known during January and February, so I'm not willing to write it off yet. This is the strongest one we've had in modern history, and I'm not convinced that models are properly accounting for the effects of it yet.
Quoting 231. Inyo:

so far worst el nino ever, first part of winter ruined in most of new england, overcast drizzle and 40s instead of snow, and meanwhile the snow in the Sierras in CA can't even break average. I sure hope it gets better moving into January, but the pattern before then looks like garbage. Sad.


Been very dry across the SE US outside of S FL but one can't ignore what these models have been showing for 24hrs now across the SE US. If these trends hold another 2 days then get ready as the rains could begin starting Monday from LA to FL.
Quoting 229. StormTrackerScott:



Been dry so far across C FL but models keep trending wetter going forward especially across the FL Panhandle where models are showing a significant amount of rain next week. I have noticed that some of the stronger El-Nino's held the heavy rains off till around Christmas ie 1982 & 1987. So it could be our closest analog could be 1982 and not 1997


Scott, these models have been showing rains for the past month. Eventually they'll be right but over the past month they have pretty much failed.
Quoting 213. HurricaneHunterJoe:



It's tough what to ask for and when during Strong El Ninos in California. Get a moderate/heavy snow early and have a pineapple express storm melt it all say in Dec-Jan to fill the lakes. An then heavy snow rest of winter to be melted during spring/summer normally which will add more melt to the lakes. What we do not want is heavy snow all winter and then get the pineapple warm storms to melt it all in March/April causing massive flooding and a lot of wasted valuable water.
No, you don't want the snow to melt at all until about May. It's the slow release of meltwater that fills the reservoirs. A prolonged rainstorm on top of the snowpack leads to so much water downstream that the dams have to do uncontrolled releases, and that leads to the floods we saw in 1997. Just enough tropical air combined with enough Alaskan air to keep the snow level above 5,000 feet is the only way we'll see the drought in California improve.
Quoting 234. Bucsboltsfan:



Scott, these models have been showing rains for the past month. Eventually they'll be right but over the past month they have pretty much failed.
Well, the main thing is that they show more rain going forward. The models would really be screwed up if they showed more rain going backwards. :-)
237. Inyo
funny, people complaining the models are wrong, when it comes to some kind of crap 40 degree december drizzle in Vermont instead of snow they seem to be able to nail the forecast 50 days in advance. I keep waiting for them to be wrong and they are not.

Quoting 234. Bucsboltsfan:



Scott, these models have been showing rains for the past month. Eventually they'll be right but over the past month they have pretty much failed.
Quoting 223. PlazaRed:


We have a lot of them in my town in Spain,
The battery is kept in the bottom of the lamp post in an enlarged base similar to a small barrel.

By popular request.
Sorry I don't have any photos but I'll go out and get one with a magnificent sunset over the mountains in the background included soon.

The system is quite simple as you can imagine.
The panel charges the battery in the base of the lamppost via some sort of regulator and then there is a solar light sensor, (like you get in cameras,) so when its becomes dusk the road street lamp gets turned on.
The light probably has LEDs so it uses very little power and as the sun shines nearly all the time here there is plenty of solar energy input.
The "low life" could brake into the base of the lamp post and steal the battery of course but they would need a bank account to sell it for scrap as cash is not paid out normally here for scrap metal. The scrap metal merchants know about most things which have come from street lamps etc so normally wont take them.
Added to this the only other possible out let the "low life" would have for the stolen products would be people with solar type systems and they are normally outside of the towns where the low life seldom venture for fear of getting lost or caught by the para military Guardia Civil, who search vehicles looking for everything from weapons to songbirds.
The most valuable part of the whole operation is the panel at the top of the post but that's a bit out of reach for them and they would probably not have a 5 sided Allen key or similar to get it off with.
So we continue along with solar powered street lights in the outback of central Cadiz Province Spain.
Hubby and I recently brought a vacation home in Florida.I wonder if we went down there for Christmas if it would feel more natural?
Quoting 228. sar2401:

The people in Spain must all be very nice. In a lot of parts of the US, the barrel and battery would be gone within 24 hours after it was installed.

I think the streets in Southern Europe are safer than the streets in the U.S. because people there spend a lot of time there. The streets are where Southern Europeans go to unwind and socialize. Vandalizing the streets there would be like vandalizing your own living room here
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29
3:00 AM JST December 16 2015
====================================
Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 6.4N 138.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 8.0N 133.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Caroline Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON MELOR (1527)
3:00 AM JST December 16 2015
====================================
In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Melor (965 hPa) located at 13.4N 120.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 12.6N 118.8E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South China Sea
48 HRS: 8.7N 114.8E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South China Sea
72 HRS: 5.7N 110.6E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) South China Sea
Quoting 238. PlazaRed:


By popular request.
Sorry I don't have any photos but I'll go out and get one with a magnificent sunset over the mountains in the background included soon.

The system is quite simple as you can imagine.
The panel charges the battery in the base of the lamppost via some sort of regulator and then there is a solar light sensor, (like you get in cameras,) so when its becomes dusk the road street lamp gets turned on.
The light probably has LEDs so it uses very little power and as the sun shines nearly all the time here there is plenty of solar energy input.
The "low life" could brake into the base of the lamp post and steal the battery of course but they would need a bank account to sell it for scrap as cash is not paid out normally here for scrap metal. The scrap metal merchants know about most things which have come from street lamps etc so normally wont take them.
Added to this the only other possible out let the "low life" would have for the stolen products would be people with solar type systems and they are normally outside of the towns where the low life seldom venture for fear of getting lost or caught by the para military Guardia Civil, who search vehicles looking for everything from weapons to songbirds.
The most valuable part of the whole operation is the panel at the top of the post but that's a bit out of reach for them and they would probably not have a 5 sided Allen key or similar to get it off with.
So we continue along with solar powered street lights in the outback of central Cadiz Province Spain.
Plaza, we have large sections of American cities where the chief occupation of "low lifes" is breaking into vacant houses and stealing every bit of metal they can find, right down to window frames. They have done the same thing in 30 story office buildings in downtown Detroit. They have stripped everything from vacant shopping malls. It's called scrapping. We have lots of "recyclers" that exist to buy this scrap and get it into the legitimate scrap metal stream. They only pay in cash. It's illegal in a lot of jurisdictions, but the worst hit cities have experienced population losses of 50% and more in the past 40 years, so a lot of the cops have been laid off. They are too busy investigating the latest murder to worry about scrap dealers. Trust me, scrappers could carry off the entire light pole, not just the battery.
Quoting 234. Bucsboltsfan:



Scott, these models have been showing rains for the past month. Eventually they'll be right but over the past month they have pretty much failed.


I agree that is why I said we need to wait see if these trends hold over the next few days. Been very dry so far this December outside of S FL.
Found the first real sign of a SSW. The 1044 MB high reaching that far north should start to disturb the Polar Vort ..Its a warm high that originated over Northern Africa..

Quoting 236. sar2401:

Well, the main thing is that they show more rain going forward. The models would really be screwed up if they showed more rain going backwards. :-)


Pretty strong signal so far across the FL Panhandle extending across much of the SE.
Quoting 239. washingtonian115:

Hubby and I recently brought a vacation home in Florida.I wonder if we went down there for Christmas if it would feel more natural?


It doesn't look or feel like Christmas across south Florida. That is for sure. I was in Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio last week. It looked a lot more like Christmas there. They even had a Christmas parade down main street in Boerne Texas while I was there.
Soon as I got back to Florida, I said to myself it sure doesn't look or feel like Christmas here.

But I love the warm and sunny weather so I'm not complaining.
It looks as though winter in the Eastern US may be delayed until at least January, according to the CPC:



This is bad news if it pans out..Tornadoes near the big cities would be a real threat..


Quoting 226. StormTrackerScott:



Lots of time for things to zero in on what maybe coming but it appears the front that moves thru Friday comes back as a warm front Monday and interacts with a strengthening southern jet with impulses riding along the front from the Gulf. CMC has near 20" totals thru day 10, GFS 14" totals, and the Euro 5" across the FL Panhandle. The thing is models are showing this in the 6 to 8 day period and lasting past day 10 so the 14" amounts on the GFS could pan out.


Typically cold fronts don't move back North as warm fronts in December but this year is proving to be anything but typical. We need a really strong front to bust through pulling cold air down from Canada. where is that Polar Vortex when you need it!?
Quoting 248. Neapolitan:

It looks as though winter in the Eastern US may be delayed until at least January, according to the CPC:




Howdy Nea..I have never seen a map like that..And not to boast, have seen a fricken tonne of them...
Quoting 247. Sfloridacat5:

It doesn't look or feel like Christmas across south Florida. That is for sure. I was in Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio last week. It looked a lot more like Christmas there. They even had a Christmas parade down main street in Boerne Texas while I was there.
Soon as I got back to Florida, I said to myself it sure doesn't look or feel like Christmas here.


At least it will be in the high 60's on Saturday. Then, it won't feel so weird listening to some Christmas music!
But I love the warm and sunny weather so I'm not complaining.

Quoting 250. 69Viking:



Typically cold fronts don't move back North as warm fronts in December but this year is proving to be anything but typical. We need a really strong front to bust through pulling cold air down from Canada. where is that Polar Vortex when you need it!?


Even the Euro Ensembles although further west than the GFS which the Euro normally does have a western bias is even showing 5" to 8" across the FL Panhandle over to New Orleans. Bottomline there's going to be alot of rain across the Southern US next week somewhere. It will still take models days to sort this mess out next week.
Okay, so I looked up the solar streetlight in the picture. Believe it or not, Amazon sells it, just like it sells everything else except a replacement for Grandma. It's listed as a "ECO-WORTHY Solar Photovoltaic Lighting System: 1pc 40W 12V LED Street Light + 2pcs 100W Polycrystalline Solar Panel +1pc 15A Solar Charge Controller (don't include the pole)". As you might be able to tell from the grammar, it's from China. The "kit" includes two 100W panels, the light, and a solar controller. No pole (as it states), no arm for the light, no battery, no wiring, no nothing but the two panels, the light, and a controller. They recommend, once you buy a battery, burying it in the ground. That's a good trick without a substantial battery box, but they're pretty vague on technical details. Not a bad deal at $485 for what you get, but what you get isn't an LED streetlight without a lot more parts and money.
Quoting 244. hydrus:

Found the first real sign of a SSW. The 1044 MB high reaching that far north should start to disturb the Polar Vort ..Its a warm high that originated over Northern Africa..



First it's just another sequel of our stubborn European/German (no-)"winter"-weather this year, hydrus, with a northwards reaching subtropical high plus the advection of very mild air far from the southwest. But I have to admit: the current maps for New Years Eve are especially cruel for European winter lovers, even in this so far record-mild December:


Happy new year then with this BBQ map, lol.


This is for the week before (Christmas holidays). Not very different, umm.
Quoting 231. Inyo:

so far worst el nino ever, first part of winter ruined in most of new england, overcast drizzle and 40s instead of snow, and meanwhile the snow in the Sierras in CA can't even break average. I sure hope it gets better moving into January, but the pattern before then looks like garbage. Sad.
Greetings Inyo...I like the garbage pattern....lots...The warmer the better....may winter sizzle like patties on the the grill...just for this winter anyway...My feet are still cold from the past few ice storms..:)
Quoting 255. barbamz:


First it's another sequel of our stubborn European/German (no-)"winter"-weather this year, hydrus, with a northwards reaching subtropical high plus the advection of very mild air from the southwest. But I have to admit: the current maps for New Years Eve are especially cruel for European winter lovers, even in this so far record-mild December:


Happy new year with this BBQ map, lol.
Hello Barb..I believe that Mother Nature is above to switch gears in rapid fashion for many regions, and it will not be pleasant for some..The U.S. will likely take a severe weather beating...The pattern is chaotic, and will become moreso...jmo...
Quoting 244. hydrus:

Found the first real sign of a SSW. The 1044 MB high reaching that far north should start to disturb the Polar Vort ..Its a warm high that originated over Northern Africa..


Of course, it's 384 hours out, but that 1031 mb high in the Pacific between the two relatively weak lows in the Bering sea and off BC doesn't look good for West Coast rain. That's also a massive ridge stretching all the way across the lower 48. It's going to take quite a perturbation in the polar vortex for it to head down our way.
Quoting 258. sar2401:

Of course, it's 384 hours out, but that 1031 mb high in the Pacific between the two relatively weak lows in the Bering sea and off BC doesn't look good for West Coast rain. That's also a massive ridge stretching all the way across the lower 48. It's going to take quite a perturbation in the polar vortex for it to head down our way.
I would think you have read at least a few of my comments over the years..Do you remember what I said about the long range and why i use them?
Quoting 248. Neapolitan:

It looks as though winter in the Eastern US may be delayed until at least January, according to the CPC:






I would love to do some shelling on the beach for Christmas. I would also love to be setting up a new weather station (you listening Santa?). So I'm hoping the weather is nice for Christmas.
Quoting 242. sar2401:

Plaza, we have large sections of American cities where the chief occupation of "low lifes" is breaking into vacant houses and stealing every bit of metal they can find, right down to window frames. They have done the same thing in 30 story office buildings in downtown Detroit. They have stripped everything from vacant shopping malls. It's called scrapping. We have lots of "recyclers" that exist to buy this scrap and get it into the legitimate scrap metal stream. They only pay in cash. It's illegal in a lot of jurisdictions, but the worst hit cities have experienced population losses of 50% and more in the past 40 years, so a lot of the cops have been laid off. They are too busy investigating the latest murder to worry about scrap dealers. Trust me, scrappers could carry off the entire light pole, not just the battery.

Sar, I agree with you entirely, as I have been in the USA in areas which most of its people would prefer not to think exist let alone wander about in.
Most of my time there I walk about in rags and speak in guttural Spanish never uttering a work in English.
Last time I was in New York in February 2015 I was eating breakfast in a shady café in Queens, as somebody was killed outside the door, so I am familiar with the land of the free.

Leaving reality out of the equation, its easy to make things that benefit humanity but humanity has to accept that its a benefit and not a free lunch, or just more cash into the pockets of the dealers.

Looking positively into the future, I am of the opinion that the divide of society into 2 main groups, of one set who are isolated and simply consume and another who are gravely concerned about the future we are heading into and as such will get to extraordinary lengths to survive and look out for the future of their descendants.

Its simply a mater of loaded dice, Russian roulette and the hand of fate who's going to be able to cope with what we have to adapt too and who's going to state that "we" are all deluded and there is simply nothing at all wrong with what is going on and what e are doing right now with the environment.

I have to leave you in your world and its problems, as we live in another world with other problems.

The only thing which really connects us is the basic background atmosphere.
Quoting 251. hydrus:

Howdy Nea..I have never seen a map like that..And not to boast, have seen a fricken tonne of them...
I believe it was Webberweather who posted a set of four maps a few weeks ago, showing the US temp anomaly forecasts for, I think, November, December, January, February. The November and December maps looked just like those Nea posted, and then things switched in January and February to more "normal". So it would seem that the forecast based on those maps verified nicely (or maybe not so nicely).
Quoting 259. hydrus:

I would think you have read at least a few of my comments over the years..Do you remember what I said about the long range and why i use them?
Of course, and it wasn't meant to be anything negative. Assuming that any of this does come true, it won't be good for winter lovers or those needing rain on the West Coast. It appears to me that, when the polar vortex does finally start to migrate, it may be more tornadoes for us and still not much snow for anyone else.

Click it to enlarge. With best wishes to the Philippines - a good night from me for now.
Quoting 237. Inyo:

funny, people complaining the models are wrong, when it comes to some kind of crap 40 degree december drizzle in Vermont instead of snow they seem to be able to nail the forecast 50 days in advance. I keep waiting for them to be wrong and they are not.




I'm not really complaining about the models, more about taking one model's point in time and calling it a forecast. I complain when mets are wrong because they have the education to provide a forecast using all of their resources and not just a model. Anyone can do that.
Quoting 263. sar2401:

Of course, and it wasn't meant to be anything negative. Assuming that any of this does come true, it won't be good for winter lovers or those needing rain on the West Coast. It appears to me that, when the polar vortex does finally start to migrate, it may be more tornadoes for us and still not much snow for anyone else.
I did not take it negatively. I was seeing if you remembered that I use them to look for major pattern shifts and really large high pressure regions. The Polar Vortex doesnt actually migrate as much as it does split or fall apart. Some years it just stays strong, and keeps most of the cold air locked up north...Notice how the Bermuda High grows substantially..

Just for kicks...

Euro now..



Euro 10 days..

It's been way too mild this December. Temperatures are going to be 15-16C the next couple of days, perhaps even higher in some parts. This is more like early May, not mid December! My lavender which I cut back to almost a stump about a month ago in prep for winter has grown back with lots of new growth. Lots of plants continually blooming too. A large line of rose bushes along a road I walk down most days were cut right back a few weeks ago only to be blooming like crazy now. I've never seen anything like it. I really hope there's a long or notable cold snap at some point.
Fish Stocks Are Declining Worldwide, And Climate Change Is On The Hook

For anyone paying attention, it's no secret there's a lot of weird stuff going on in the oceans right now. We've got a monster El Nino looming in the Pacific. Ocean acidification is prompting hand wringing among oyster lovers. Migrating fish populations have caused tensions between countries over fishing rights. And fishermen say they're seeing unusual patterns in fish stocks they haven't seen before.

Researchers now have more grim news to add to the mix. An analysis published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that the ability of fish populations to reproduce and replenish themselves is declining across the globe.


Link
Quoting 265. Bucsboltsfan:



I'm not really complaining about the models, more about taking one model's point in time and calling it a forecast. I complain when mets are wrong because they have the education to provide a forecast using all of their resources and not just a model. Anyone can do that.


No one is making a forecast off 1 model. Every model is showing the samething across the FL Panhandle question now is will these trends hold the next few days. If 1 model showed a heavy event then I more than likely wouldn't mention but when all of them do then that's a different story. It does seem models are trying to undercut some systems next week across the South.
Quoting 267. Envoirment:

It's been way too mild this December. Temperatures are going to be 15-16C the next couple of days, perhaps even higher in some parts. This is more like early May, not mid December! My lavender which I cut back to almost a stump about a month ago in prep for winter has grown back with lots of new growth. Lots of plants continually blooming too. A large line of rose bushes along a road I walk down most days were cut right back a few weeks ago only to be blooming like crazy now. I've never seen anything like it. I really hope there's a long or notable cold snap at some point.

23/C in Malaga today, about 74 /F and the weather mob say that its going to be this warm up to at least Christmas.
We are working in short T shirt sleeves at the moment and its almost time to open the windows to let in the warm air here.
I'm not complaining as if the temps were normal it would be too cold for a pensioner like me to work on building sites.
Quoting 208. BrooksvilleFl:

Here in the boondocks near Brooksville, the nighttime minimum temperature has failed to get below 70 degrees for the last two nights. These are late May/early June average lows here. Sure, El Nino years are warm years, but I have never seen such an extended period of warm weather so late in the year.

At least it'll be in the low 40's for a couple of nights going into this weekend, then it's right back to mid-80's daytime highs in time for Christmas. My Phoenix Sylvestris palms are enjoying it (they survived a 19-degree morning last winter without ill effects). El Nino above normal precipitation? It has yet to materialize.


This fall has set a new record as the warmest fall to date so far in recorded history, and it has been one of the driest for Central FL on record.
Quoting 272. Jedkins01:



This has fall has set a new record as the warmest fall to date so far in recorded history, and it has been one of the driest for Central FL on record.



It had been one for the record books but not what most of us would have thought.
A shot for some rain and then a brief cool down before it heats up again.

Pacific Ocean may be having disastrous consequences for whales that use the waters off California as a migratory super-highway

“This time of year, the whales would be offshore but with the blob of warm water, they’re right off the beach. They’re right where the crabs are,” said Jim Anderson, a crabber who’s helping to mobilize the state’s 562 licensed Dungeness crab fishermen. “You go talk to a guy who’s been fishing for 40 or 50 years and he’s never seen anything like it.” Whales that have rope stuck in their mouths or wrapped tightly around their fins or tail will eventually die if they can’t free themselves. Highly trained volunteer rescue teams are only able to disentangle a small percentage despite tracking devices that allow them to follow the hobbled animals for miles. Many swim away and their fate is never known.

Link
Quoting 179. weathermanwannabe:

The redistribution of wealth argument, in favor of the poorer Counties/Peoples is a fallacy. Europe and the United States is where the industrial revolution began and flourished, based upon local fossil fuels (coal) for steel production and the like and the importing of oil from the Middle East to fuel combustion engines. While this domination continued for decades, with the concurrent rise in greenhouse gases, other Countries have followed the same economic model (China/Asia/ etc) and they are following the same development "bell curve" that Europe and the US went through (maximum use of fossil fuels to maximize economic growth within the established regime/model). Currently, there has been a redistribution of wealth from the United States/Europe to China (which owns the majority of the US debt and substantial real estate in this Country and in Europe) and our Congress in the United States allowed this to happen over the past 50 years. Congress allowed the huge trade imbalance between the US and China, allowed US companies to off-shore production to Asia, and Americans (and others in the world) funded the Chinese economic explosion by buying Chinese/Asian products without complaint (or demanding US made products) while the top money elite/shareholders have laughed all the way to the bank.

Those that argue that the current efforts against global warming is part of a global movement to redistribute wealth from the rich and powerful to the "poor" in the world are sorely misinformed; It's a matter/issue that impacts all people, rich and poor, in the world. I cannot defend the US Congress on this one; they blew it decades ago and continue to do so.

Edited Caveat:

In deterrence to the fossil fuel economic revolution (which was well-intentioned), we did not know until the past few decades and the science, that the burning of fossil fuels for just over 100 years now, would have such an impact on global temperatures/global warming. This is the un-intentioned byproduct and the question now is whether we continue on the same bell curve or use science and technology to help move us quickly towards renewable-clean energy sources.
Hi weather, but the temp rise in the last 100yrs. is not only from burning fossil fuels, but other variables that occur with climate change. One more thing there is a great article on WB"s premium site by JD, not JB, and a lot of it has to do with the way they measure the temps. Man is a causing the planet to warm, but by how much, and what are the actual temps according to the satellites? Interesting reading for people with open minds.
Quoting 260. Sfloridacat5:



I would love to do some shelling on the beach for Christmas. I would also love to be setting up a new weather station (you listening Santa?). So I'm hoping the weather is nice for Christmas.
California’s stranded sea lions suffering from brain damage caused by algae blooms

SAN JOSE, Calif.

Scientists have gleaned fresh insight into the havoc wreaked by a microscopic culprit that has disrupted marine life this year along the Pacific Coast, not only tainting Northern California’s delicious supply of Dungeness crab but also sickening or killing hundreds of sea lions.

It’s long been known that a tiny toxin called domoic acid, produced by marine algae known as pseudo-nitzschia, kills brain cells. But new research by a University of California, Santa Cruz, team illuminates the relationship between damage to the brain and sea lions’ profound loss of memory and navigational skills. In recent years, biologists have increasingly observed a high number of California sea lions struggle onto beaches, weak, confused and trembling.



Link
the temp rise in the last 100yrs. is not only from burning fossil fuels, but other variables that occur with climate change.

Name 3 of these variables .
Midnight chiming over here in our bit of the world.
Time to bale out again as we head into Wednesday.

Here's a tune centred on Paris from the past that was by a man who is no longer with us but is called.

Parisienne Walkways:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9oouMDQAIk

Hasta Man-yar-na.
Quoting 196. Patrap:

Ravi Shankar has passed away at 92.

What a master of the sitar and life. He will be sadly missed.
Nirvana welcomes Him.


One of my Indian friends once told me that there had been three phases in the entire history of Indian music, until Ravi Shankar initiated the fourth phase. To turn a phrase, worldwide, "Ravi Shankar was more popular than the Beatles". Iss Jiva ko Mukti Prapt ho, Ravi.

56.7F/13.72C here this afternoon, just want some 70's
CBS News -

NO snow in Buffalo, this is the latest with No Snow event since 1899.

The ‘autumn-blooming’ cherry blossoms are still going strong on the National Mall

Here we are in mid-December — the sun is shining, the birds are singing and… the cherry blossoms are still blooming.

Link
Quoting 279. ColoradoBob1:

the temp rise in the last 100yrs. is not only from burning fossil fuels, but other variables that occur with climate change.

Name 3 of these variables .


The suspense is killing me.

It is now looking like there is a possibility of not only highs in the 60s and maybe even getting into the 70s for next week into Christmas, but the chance for thunderstorms.
Patrap, HHJ, and Pipejazz- definitely check out Anoushka Shankar, Ravi Shankar's daughter from another mother-she is a wonderful sitarist in her own right! Weather here in Mandarin, Fl. at 7:30, 70 degrees and moisture heavy, but not raining!
I reserve the right to watch Looney Tunes only on a Saturday morning, so no CNN for me tonight.
HURRICANE SCORECARD 2015

Over 30 winners
Expect the 3rd winner list for the Atlantic Season shortly. New blog in the works
Quoting 262. CaneFreeCR:

I believe it was Webberweather who posted a set of four maps a few weeks ago, showing the US temp anomaly forecasts for, I think, November, December, January, February. The November and December maps looked just like those Nea posted, and then things switched in January and February to more "normal". So it would seem that the forecast based on those maps verified nicely (or maybe not so nicely).


Indeed, I drew on Webberweather's maps for this post back in mid-November:

Will El Niño Bring a December Warm Wave to North America?

The combination of seasonal models (CFSv2) and El Niño analogs has done remarkably well with this month's blast of N.A. warmth!
Quoting 284. wartsttocs:



The suspense is killing me.




It's the same old can of spring loaded peanut brittle snakes .

The real laugh out loud thing is the claim of "Open Mindedness". And wrapping one's self in the "The School of Athens". Raphael 's great masterwork in the Vatican of the great thinkers of classical Greece.



Then one of the "Open Minded" leaders brings a snowball onto the floor of the Senate . One wonders if he brings cherry blossoms there this week.


"It's all cycles".
2015 will be the year that beat out 2014 as the warmest ever recorded.

I'm detecting a trend.



Quoting 276. NativeSun:

Hi weather, but the temp rise in the last 100yrs. is not only from burning fossil fuels, but other variables that occur with climate change. One more thing there is a great article on WB"s premium site by JD, not JB, and a lot of it has to do with the way they measure the temps. Man is a causing the planet to warm, but by how much, and what are the actual temps according to the satellites? Interesting reading for people with open minds.


Look, I'm going to level with you. Joe Bastardi is not a climate scientist, neither are his buddies. In fact, not a single one of his friends has a single peer reviewed journal article regarding climate change. Joe D'Aleo runs a well known climate conspiracy website called Icecap.us. I can tell you, you are paying them $20 a month to lie to you and fill your head with nonsense regarding climate change. Unfortunately, you bring it here and it gets knocked down with little to no response from you because you merely parrot whatever you read that day.

Let's just pretend for a second that their ideas have any merit, why wouldn't they be adding them to the discourse?Any finding with sound evidence that contradicts over 100 years of scientific discourse would be major news, it would revolutionize our understanding of the world and climate. Now, why do you think they don't publish? Why do you think this is for the "premium" users only? Why would they charge for such revelatory information? Take your time, I want you to think about this.
The ‘autumn-blooming’ cherry blossoms are still going strong on the National Mall

Here we are in mid-December — the sun is shining, the birds are singing and… the cherry blossoms are still blooming.

Link

Will senator "snowball" throw cherry blossoms on the senate floor in December to advance his hoax theory ?

Open minded thinkers want to know.

Denial posts are a nod to their own ignorance.

When has anyone ever seen Dr. M or others like Dr. Rood even mention anything they come here with as "new",or eye opening?

Because it ain't.

Anyone paying anyone for BS is suspect at the source.

BS may sell to those who seek it for comfort, ideology back slapping may werk for those who find comfort in numbers,but here, we do science.

Science is the way learned Men and Women do things in the real World.

Ted Cruz's lil committee showed us what He is made of....

all of the above.

Quoting 276. NativeSun:

Man is a causing the planet to warm, but by how much, and what are the actual temps according to the satellites? Interesting reading for people with open minds.



Well, I believe the current consensus among climate scientists is that we're responsible for approximately 110% of the warming over the last 4 decades. It's > 100% because some of our pollutants - specifically aerosols - cool the planet. In fact, we used to pump out so much of the stuff that some scientists back in the early 70s wondered whether they might overwhelm the greenhouse warming and trigger an ice age (thus certain sensationalist magazine covers about the impending ice age). The climate scientists quickly worked out that wasn't going to happen, though.

As for satellites - you do know they don't measure temperature, right? The satellite sensors that are used to derive the RSS & UAH temperature series are measuring brightness in particular microwave bands associated with oxygen molecules. It's possible to infer temperature from this brightness, but you have to very carefully correct for orbital variations, time of day, atmospheric conditions, and the fact that you're using multiple sensors on multiple satellites.

Even then, the satellites give a 'temperature' that's measured somewhere between 1 and 8 kilometres above ground level (IIRC, might go up higher). So you then have to correct from that measurement at altitude to infer a ground level or sea level temperature, which is of course strongly affected by the uncertainty in altitude of measurement. Of course the microwaves you're measuring aren't all emitted at one specific altitude, so you have to take that into account and correct for it as well.

The debate over what these corrections should be is vigorous and ongoing, evidenced by the number of major revisions to the satellite datasets over the last 30 years. It's also why the satellite data is considered to be the least reliable in terms of determining what the actual temperature at the earth's surface is, although it's extremely useful in providing a global view of temperature distribution.
Quoting 288. Patrap:

I reserve the right to watch Looney Tunes only on a Saturday morning, so no CNN for me tonight.


When do you watch fox then?
That never happens in my Home.

We don't do stupid.
Quoting 276. NativeSun:

Hi weather, but the temp rise in the last 100yrs. is not only from burning fossil fuels, but other variables that occur with climate change. One more thing there is a great article on WB"s premium site by JD, not JB, and a lot of it has to do with the way they measure the temps. Man is a causing the planet to warm, but by how much, and what are the actual temps according to the satellites? Interesting reading for people with open minds.


That's simply not true. If we weren't increasing the amount of greenhouse gases through the burning of fossil fuels, temperatures would have fallen slightly.

What's Really Warming the World

Bern99 is correct.
Quoting 288. Patrap:

I reserve the right to watch Looney Tunes only on a Saturday morning, so no CNN for me tonight.
They just mentioned your climate conference.
DId you see that climate change is causing the earth to slow down (spin)?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/15/world/climate-chang e-earth-rotation-feat/index.html

Link

Sorry, Patrap, it's from CNN - but I found it interesting. Wonder if the science behind the article is correct.
Heat Wave Up there Dakster? Well it is above Freezing.... (now)
Back in MIA... Snowing on and off back home though. It is actually cooling down up there... I bet another round of sub zero is coming.

Dakster, that's correct. When ice melts at the poles water flows towards the mid latitudes and the equator. The mid-latitudes and the equator rotate much more rapidly than at the poles. Angular momentum must be conserved so when water flows towards the equator and moves more rapidly, the rotation of the whole Earth slows down.
Makes sense BB... BTW, I like the new avatar picture of you and your best friend. (A dog is man's best friend, not being weird or sarcastic)

That's from last year Dakster--I thought it made a good Christmas avatar.
BB - Btw, Happy Hanukah! Stay safe out there.

Anyhow, just stopped in for a bit to see what was going on weatherwise in the world. And say hello.

Can't wait for the cold front to hit South Florida. Supposed to be in the 50s this weekend. (low temp).
Happy Hanukah to you Dakster! I'm at home . We spent the weekend sailing from Baltimore, overnight near St. Michaels, and back.
You are in Baltimore... Stay safe out there still applies!!! How was the sailing weather?
Same last name as I, no relation though.

Climate change is a drag (on Earth), study says
By Michael Pearson, CNN
Updated 12:28 PM ET, Tue December 15, 2015


(CNN)File this under Things You May Not Have Known: Climate change, scientists say, is slowing Earth's rotation ever so slightly.

It's not a new idea. In fact, scientists have been looking at the relationship among melting glaciers, rising sea levels and a slowing Earth for years.

But it's getting a new airing after publication of a paper matching the mean rise in sea levels during the 20th century to the slowdown in Earth's spin.

It turns out that water melting off glaciers and moving away from the poles acts much like an ice skater's outstretched arms, making every rotation that much slower, said Jerry Mitrovica, a Harvard University professor of geophysics and lead author of the paper.

How much slower?

In Earth's case, one millisecond a day. That's a thousandth of a second.

It may not seem like much, but that slowing matches up nicely with the effect of average global sea level increases of 1 millimeter to 1.5 millimeters during the 20th century, Mitrovica said. That's the total amount glaciologists have estimated after looking at what's happened to all the world's glaciers, he said.

So it's really more about confirmation of the effects of climate change than anything else, he said.

His research is a response to a 2002 paper by oceanographer Walter Munk, who found discrepancies between the rate of slowing in Earth's rotation and prevailing theories about average sea level increases over the century.

Mitrovica said Munk used an inaccurate model for how the last ice age 5,000 years ago continues to affect Earth's rotation.

By using a newer model, and cross-referencing rotation information with ancient astronomical observations, Mitrovica was able to show that rotation changes and estimated sea level changes fit precisely.

The rotation from melting glaciers is on top of slowing caused by tidal forces, winds and other impacts, which adds about 1.4 milliseconds to a day over the course of a century, according to the U.S. Naval Observatory.

Other things can also effect Earth's rotation. A 2011 earthquake in Japan is said to have shortened the day by 1.8 millionth of a second, according to NASA.

While the research seems esoteric and the implications of a more slowly spinning planet won't amount to much, practically speaking, Mitrovica says, it does provide another tool to help assess how much melting is going on.

"It gives you one, simple, unpolluted measurement of what the Earth's ice sheets and glaciers are doing," he said.

Obama: Climate agreement 'best chance we have' to save the planet

Quoting 311. Dakster:

You are in Baltimore... Stay safe out there still applies!!! How was the sailing weather?
It was very good, mid to upper 60s on land, about 60 on the water.
316. 882MB
Funny little blob in the Caribbean.

317. 882MB
Melor has been dropping a whole lot of rain on the Philippines, what a slow moving booger. 97W is right on its heels, but looks like it may stay south of where Melor made landfall.

Melor



97W

Quoting 247. Sfloridacat5:



It doesn't look or feel like Christmas across south Florida. That is for sure. I was in Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio last week. It looked a lot more like Christmas there. They even had a Christmas parade down main street in Boerne Texas while I was there.
Soon as I got back to Florida, I said to myself it sure doesn't look or feel like Christmas here.

But I love the warm and sunny weather so I'm not complaining.


It was in the mid 70s and muggy here in Austin today. One day its chilly, the next its warm. Needless to say, a week's worth of laundry these days include both long sleeves and jeans along with shorts and tank tops. There is an advancing cold front about 3 miles west of here and our temps tonight are supposed to drop back down in the 40s tonight. I just saw Nea's 6-10 day temp forecast, so it looks like its not time to put away the t-shirts just yet.
Quoting 317. 882MB:

Funny little blob in the Caribbean.




Lenny part 2?
320. 882MB
Quoting 319. Astrometeor:



Lenny part 2?


If we where in October or November who knows, lol. Lenny came into my mind also while watching this loop.
Quoting 296. Bern99:


As for satellites - you do know they don't measure temperature, right? The satellite sensors that are used to derive the RSS & UAH temperature series are measuring brightness in particular microwave bands associated with oxygen molecules. It's possible to infer temperature from this brightness, but you have to very carefully correct for orbital variations, time of day, atmospheric conditions, and the fact that you're using multiple sensors on multiple satellites.

Even then, the satellites give a 'temperature' that's measured somewhere between 1 and 8 kilometres above ground level (IIRC, might go up higher). So you then have to correct from that measurement at altitude to infer a ground level or sea level temperature, which is of course strongly affected by the uncertainty in altitude of measurement. Of course the microwaves you're measuring aren't all emitted at one specific altitude, so you have to take that into account and correct for it as well.

The debate over what these corrections should be is vigorous and ongoing, evidenced by the number of major revisions to the satellite datasets over the last 30 years. It's also why the satellite data is considered to be the least reliable in terms of determining what the actual temperature at the earth's surface is, although it's extremely useful in providing a global view of temperature distribution.


Well now just hold on there a second, partner. Rep. Lamar Smith says: "Atmospheric satellite data, considered by many to be the most objective, has clearly showed no warming for the past two decades." Are you suggesting he's wrong? :)
Quoting 316. 882MB:

Funny little blob in the Caribbean.




I heard "BLOB"




323. 882MB
Quoting 322. Grothar:



I heard "BLOB"







Lol, I was wondering where you were at? What should we name this BLOB?
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 152357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.




...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 1N AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N18W 1N30W 2N46W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-39W AND FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT IN THE NW ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
AT 15/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY
INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG
27N88W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 25N TO THE WARM FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM S
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
GIVING THE REST OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT N TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WED MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THU
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER CUBA TO
OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
VENEZUELA OVER THE E CARIBBEAN JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF
CUBA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH S TO E PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-
19N BETWEEN 72W-79W INCLUDING SW HAITI...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF E CUBA IS GIVING SW HAITI SCATTERED
SHOWERS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING E OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND WED. THIS
WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH WED AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH MID
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 15/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W TO 30N79W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N63W WITH A CUT OFF THE UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST N OF E CUBA NEAR 22N75W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N60W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W TO 26N30W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 19N43W TO 18N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W ALONG 26N41W TO
24N53W. W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG
ROUGHLY 30N TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA EARLY WED
LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
Quoting 323. 882MB:



Lol, I was wondering where you were at? What should we name this BLOB?


Now naming until next season.
0Z GFS & 0Z CMC showing well over 10" to in some cases 15" of rain next week from LA to FL. Also severe weather too.
I wondered what global warming would look like - -

It looks like people shopping for Christmas gifts, while wearing shorts.
Quoting 330. aquak9:

I wondered what global warming would look like - -

It looks like people shopping for Christmas gifts, while wearing shorts.


Santa may need to deliver some weather radio's next week. Looking insane wise for severe potential across the Deep South. Could be setting up the most dangerous Christmas week ever weather wise Especially from LA to FL Panhandle.

This setup could be a deadly one for Southerners.


Santa may need to deliver some weather radio's next week. Looking insane wise for severe potential across the Deep South. Could be setting up the most dangerous Christmas week ever weather wise Especially from LA to FL Panhandle.

You mean the week BEFORE Christmas, or the week AFTER Christmas?
Quoting 332. aquak9:

You mean the week BEFORE Christmas, or the week AFTER Christmas?


Christmas week. Tuesday into Christmas EVE looking dangerous. Models supporting large dangerous tornadoes and likely long track ones as well.



OK, thanks. I'll be in Tampa...driving back to Jax on the 26th. Besides,
that's like seven days out...
Aussie you OK?

7 News Sydney ‏@7NewsSydney 5h5 hours ago

LATEST: Tornado warning for Sydney - winds over 200km/hr, large hail smashing the city. http://www.7live.com.au
Quoting 331. StormTrackerScott:



Santa may need to deliver some weather radio's next week. Looking insane wise for severe potential across the Deep South. Could be setting up the most dangerous Christmas week ever weather wise Especially from LA to FL Panhandle.

This setup could be a deadly one for Southerners.





Compared to the 2012 Christmas Outbreak of 31 tornadoes?
Quoting 336. Astrometeor:



Compared to the 2012 Christmas Outbreak of 31 tornadoes?


That jet configuration could surpass that easily. Again things can change as models have been all over the place recently but I will say the last 24hrs models seem to be converging on Tuesday thru next Thursday.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 257. hydrus:

Hello Barb..I believe that Mother Nature is above to switch gears in rapid fashion for many regions, and it will not be pleasant for some..The U.S. will likely take a severe weather beating...The pattern is chaotic, and will become moreso...jmo...

This is not 'mother nature'.
This is a very ill planet. Very ill indeed.

(from Holland where we started an unbelievable heat wave last night)
Quoting 265. Bucsboltsfan:



I'm not really complaining about the models, more about taking one model's point in time and calling it a forecast. I complain when mets are wrong because they have the education to provide a forecast using all of their resources and not just a model. Anyone can do that.
Can't blame the Mets, they can only go by what they are taught in school, and this just proves how little we really know about the weather and other things.
Quoting 284. wartsttocs:



The suspense is killing me.


You your brain and look them up.
Quoting 296. Bern99:




Well, I believe the current consensus among climate scientists is that we're responsible for approximately 110% of the warming over the last 4 decades. It's > 100% because some of our pollutants - specifically aerosols - cool the planet. In fact, we used to pump out so much of the stuff that some scientists back in the early 70s wondered whether they might overwhelm the greenhouse warming and trigger an ice age (thus certain sensationalist magazine covers about the impending ice age). The climate scientists quickly worked out that wasn't going to happen, though.

As for satellites - you do know they don't measure temperature, right? The satellite sensors that are used to derive the RSS & UAH temperature series are measuring brightness in particular microwave bands associated with oxygen molecules. It's possible to infer temperature from this brightness, but you have to very carefully correct for orbital variations, time of day, atmospheric conditions, and the fact that you're using multiple sensors on multiple satellites.

Even then, the satellites give a 'temperature' that's measured somewhere between 1 and 8 kilometres above ground level (IIRC, might go up higher). So you then have to correct from that measurement at altitude to infer a ground level or sea level temperature, which is of course strongly affected by the uncertainty in altitude of measurement. Of course the microwaves you're measuring aren't all emitted at one specific altitude, so you have to take that into account and correct for it as well.

The debate over what these corrections should be is vigorous and ongoing, evidenced by the number of major revisions to the satellite datasets over the last 30 years. It's also why the satellite data is considered to be the least reliable in terms of determining what the actual temperature at the earth's surface is, although it's extremely useful in providing a global view of temperature distribution.
Yes I know the satellite temps are measured in the atmosphere as they should be. The ground measurements can be skewed by different variables in their surrounding environment
Quoting 314. washingtonian115:

I see the blog is turning nasty with political comments which means I will be out of sight.
Very good idea.