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First Look at 2016 Hurricane Season: Unusually Big Question Marks

By: Bob Henson 7:51 PM GMT on December 10, 2015

Even more than one might expect, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up with both high- and low-end possibilities, based on preliminary thoughts released Thursday by a team at Colorado State University. The CSU project, founded by Dr. William Gray with Dr. Phil Klotzbach now serving as lead author, has issued seasonal outlooks since 1984 for the anticipated amount of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. In 1993 the group began issuing outlooks each December for the following year’s activity, but in 2011 those outlooks were dropped due to lack of any demonstrated skill. In its place, the CSU team now releases what they call a “qualitative discussion,” which highlights the factors at play and includes a more generalized sense of what we might expect.

Although it’s not presented as a quantitive outlook, the Thursday release (PDF) does include a set of four potential scenarios for 2016, each rated in terms of probabilities that we will see a given amount of seasonally-averaged accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). These scenarios hinge on two factors: how quickly the current El Niño will diminish, and how the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/thermohaline circulation (AMO/THC) will evolve.

1. AMO/THC becomes above average in 2016 and no El Niño impacts remain (resulting in an ACE of ~ 170) – 25% chance
2. AMO/THC is above average in 2016 but some El Niño impacts remain (ACE ~ 120) – 35% chance
3. AMO/THC is below average and no El Niño impacts remain (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance
4. AMO/THC is below average and some El Niño impacts remain (ACE ~ 50) – 20% chance

CSU relates the ACE values shown above to these general ranges of activity:

170 ACE – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
120 ACE – 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes
80 ACE – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
50 ACE – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricane

The upshot is that we have a 45% chance of falling into one of the two more extreme scenarios: either #1 (a very busy season) or #4 (a very quiet season). Looking back at each of the last four years, CSU placed the combined odds of the highest- and lowest-end scenarios at only 20% to 25%. So if CSU is right, the Atlantic season of 2016 has an considerably better chance than the last four seasons of being either unusually active or uncommonly tranquil. Want more evidence for this split verdict? CSU points out the wildly contrasting outcomes for the Atlantic hurricane seasons that followed our two other “super El Niño” events since 1950 (1982-83 and 1997-98):

1983: Atlantic ACE = 17% of average
1998: Atlantic ACE = 182% of average

This stark difference is largely because the 1982-83 El Niño decayed gradually, holding on till midsummer, whereas the 1997-88 El Niño quickly shifted into a moderate La Niña by late summer. The most recent monthly outlook for El Niño, issued Thursday by NOAA, calls for a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by late spring or early summer. Computer models are in agreement on this shift, though the timing varies somewhat. More often than not, a strong or very strong El Niño event is followed by La Niña in the next summer or autumn. It’s certainly possible that La Niña could be in place by late summer (see Figure 1 below), which would favor an active Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 1. The December outlook issued by a collaborative group of forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The odds of neutral or La Niña conditions rise considerably by next summer. Image credit: NOAA/IRI.

How do El Niño and the AMO/TCH influence hurricanes?
In a relationship that’s well understood, El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, mainly by enhancing upper-level wind shear, while La Niña favors more Atlantic activity by reducing wind shear. These factors come and go from year to year. Meanwhile, the ups and downs of the AMO/THC modulate hurricane activity over much longer periods by affecting sea-surface temperatures and other conditions over the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. “These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years,” notes a NOAA FAQ on the phenomenon.

The AMO/THC has shown large multidecadal trends over the last century, favoring reduced hurricane activity from the 1970s to the mid-1990s and increased activity from that point until the early 2010s. Over the last couple of years, the AMO/THC has slowed down, in tandem with a reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity. However, the AMO/THC can vary on the shorter term as well, so it’s not yet certain that we have entered a new multi-decade era of reduced activity--although Phil Klotzbach made the case for this in a paper published in Science this past September and summarized in a writeup by Klotzbach at Capital Weather Gang. (The Science paper can be accessed through a link at the bottom of the CWG article.) Even if we are indeed in a new era, shorter-term factors could strengthen the AMO/THC during a given year. This includes the train of weather features and oceanic effects that El Niño is expected to produce over the next few months from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

“The uncertainties related to the AMO for 2016 are enormous,” said Eric Blake (National Hurricane Center) in an email, “because we lack a reliable way to track the feature and because of possible effects of El Niño countering the longer-term cycle.”

CSU will issue its full seasonal outlooks for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2016 on April 14, June 1, and August 3. As one would expect, the skill of these outlooks steadily improves as the hurricane season nears. Even if it’s too soon right now to expect an accurate forecast for 2016, the latest thoughts from CSU make me even more eager to see how this very uncertain hurricane season will unfold.

Bob Henson


Figure 2. The largest patch of below-average ocean temperatures for 2015 (January - October) has been in the North Atlantic, where record-cold values have been observed southeast of Greenland. These values are consistent with a weaker Atlantic multidecadal oscillation/thermohaline circulation. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Bob... looks like we are spinning our wheels at least until April 14th.... Maybe they'll have a better idea by then (and maybe not?!). Thankfully we have some juicy presidential campaigns to keep us occupado in the meantime!
Thanks for the update Bob.
Thanks Bob. Here's to juicy campaigns...LOL!!
You gotta love science, where but in the field of science, does a group from Ft. Collins , Colorado. launch a yearly hurricane forecast that is in it's 31st year ?

Hmm in other words they have no idea what will happen...
The Pacific has stolen the spotlight these past few years. There are some signs that won't be the case next year. But of course, things can change quickly ala 2013.


Thanks. With all due respect to the CSU team (and particularly now that Dr. Klotzbach has taken over the lead on their forecasts), any December forecast, which would by definition eye the peak period in Aug-September, for the following year (in this case 9-10 months out) is essentially worthless. We all have a tremendous amount of respect for Dr. Gray's past work (the Father of modern hurricane climatology) and the excellent job being done by Dr. Klotzbach which includes year round studies and journal articles.

So, they drop the December ones in 2011 because of the high uncertainly/lack of any skill, but now broaden the categories with a new name.....I would respectfully treat them all (all early pre-season forecasts) with a grain a salt until we get past the Enso "spring barrier" and get a handle on the noted real-time factors going into May-June (including African Continent factors such as Sahel rainfall/SAL issues) which tend to heavily influence the Cape Verde season...........It just sounds to me (the new discussion) as more of an academic exercise than a new practical tool that we can actually rely on this far out; especially since the exact timing of the current El Nino wane- Enso shift is so much up in the air at the moment as they are already noting.
Haven't had the opportunity to be online regularly so not really sure if the final score for the 2015 hurricane season was published. I did see that Max had written that no one had won to his satisfaction but still would be nice to know how close I came. Thanks in advance.
The way I read it; there is a 60% chance of >80 ACE.
From the last thread -

Quoting 215. Seattleite:

So far I'm off to a great start for the day. I left my new home in Monroe WA to go to Redmond for work. It's normally a 30 minute drive. After 2.5 hours, and going only 9 miles I came back home. No music class for the little ones this morning. I'll try again this afternoon using the main highways, hopefully there won't be any more car accidents. The good news is I have power, and the rivers are starting to recede. The bad news? The landslides are getting worse, and more storms are on the way.

Overall, Seattle city proper faired pretty well. Most flooding was caused by clogged drains, and were quickly delt with. All the power outages for Seattle City Lights are gone (and yes, there were outages in city proper). However, Puget Sound Energy still has scattered outages affecting a few hundred locations.

Landslide damages home in Burien (south of Seattle)

Washington Governor Declares State of Emergency

Portland, however, has not been handling the rain nearly as well. Check out some of these stories!

Why Portland's Drainage System Failed

I-5 is closed due to landslide

Public Health Advisory - Don't go near the Clackamas river!


Monster El Nino Hurls 43+ Foot Waves at US West Coast

Link

I was living in Kiezer, Oregon in winter of 97'-98'. The Willamette came within a foot of over topping the dikes. With all the record fires up and down the West Coast , you have my thoughts this winter.
What I'd like to know, are snow levels this winter. As the storms hit.

If these storms come in, and it's raining at 8,000 feet that's one thing, if they come in and it's raining at 5,000 feet, that's whole other ball of wax.

The models say the snow levels will rise. This winter will test that big time.

Seattleite

Make sure your seat back tray is locked in it's up right position , and please read the card in the back of the seat in front of you. Your seat cushion can be used as a flotation device.
“As the system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes. There it tends to get stuck , before wildly swing back to the other extreme.”

Visit at the CSU. And thanks for the psychic blog, Bob!
Quoting 9. AreadersinceWilma:

Haven't had the opportunity to be online regularly so not really sure if the final score for the 2015 hurricane season was published. I did see that Max had written that no one had won to his satisfaction but still would be nice to know how close I came. Thanks in advance.

Final: 11-4-2
Your prediction: 12-4-2
Paris talks: new draft climate deal published - live blog

24m ago
"I think, I hope, that at the end of this night we will have a final text tomorrow, the text official, that will permit a universal agreement on climate change," Fabius told the Guardian's Suzanne Goldenberg and other reporters.
"We are much closer," he said.

The Latest: New climate draft shows headway on key issues
San Francisco Chronicle, Updated: December 10, 2015 1:47pm


Paris Agreement News
#Progress in tonight's Draft #Paris Outcome text: 18,815 words & 48 #brackets #COP21 #update https://t.co/5y11wCXi3x https://t.co/k0iFRpdfiq
Quoting 14. barbamz:


Visit at the CSU. And thanks for the psychic blog, Bob!


NAILED IT !
Quoting 16. barbamz:

Paris talks: new draft climate deal published - live blog

24m ago
"I think, I hope, that at the end of this night we will have a final text tomorrow, the text official, that will permit a universal agreement on climate change," Fabius told the Guardian's Suzanne Goldenberg and other reporters.
"We are much closer," he said.



Ironically, the price of Gasoline here is down to $1.66 a Gal. Gas prices

Crude is down to $37.16 bbl for WTI

www.oil-price.net
Quoting 19. Patrap:




Ironically, the price of Gasoline here is down to $1.66 a Gal. Gas prices

Crude is down to $37.16 bbl for WTI

www.oil-price.net


Supply and demand "do dat"
Quoting 11. ColoradoBob1:

From the last thread -



Monster El Nino Hurls 43+ Foot Waves at US West Coast

Link

I was living in Kiezer, Oregon in winter of 97'-98'. The Willamette came within a foot of over topping the dikes. With all the record fires up and down the West Coast , you have my thoughts this winter.
What I'd like to know, are snow levels this winter. As the storms hit.

If these storms come in, and it's raining at 8,000 feet that's one thing, if they come in and it's raining at 5,000 feet, that's whole other ball of wax.

The models say the snow levels will rise. This winter will test that big time.

Seattleite

Make sure your seat back tray is locked in it's up right position , and please read the card in the back of the seat in front of you. Your seat cushion can be used as a flotation device.


I appreciate your thoughts! I finally made it to Redmond this afternoon, so I will be teaching the Nutcracker afterall.

As for the snow, part of why the flooding is so bad right now is the variable snow levels. For most of last week snow fell down to 3000ft. Then when the warm air came in Tuesday it rose to 8000ft. So not only did we have record rainfall, there was a lot of snow melt to make it worse. The forecasters are calling for snow levels of 4000ft today, dropping to 1000ft early next week. At the very least, any additional rainfall induced flooding should be mitigated by a low snow level.
Quoting 15. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Final: 11-4-2
Your prediction: 12-4-2

I almost won :(
2015 El Niño near its peak

The strong 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. While sea surface temperatures remain close to record-high values, some El Niño indicators are now showing signs of easing. However, the current El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.
El Niño indicators, notably sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific, and cloudiness near the Date Line, remain well above El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has eased back into neutral values, though this may be short-lived: the SOI tends to be more variable during the northern Australian wet season (October–April). Model outlooks and the strength of the current event suggest El Niño thresholds may continue to be exceeded well into the southern hemisphere autumn.

Read more ...
Quoting 15. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Final: 11-4-2
Your prediction: 12-4-2



Thanks.
Quoting 22. Seattleite:



I appreciate your thoughts! I finally made it to Redmond this afternoon, so I will be teaching the Nutcracker afterall.

As for the snow, part of why the flooding is so bad right now is the variable snow levels. For most of last week snow fell down to 3000ft. Then when the warm air came in Tuesday it rose to 8000ft. So not only did we have record rainfall, there was a lot of snow melt to make it worse. The forecasters are calling for snow levels of 4000ft today, dropping to 1000ft early next week. At the very least, any additional rainfall induced flooding should be mitigated by a low snow level.


Not my work-


Rains Cut Into An Already Low Snowpack


Scientists say the snowpack in northwest Oregon and the central Cascades decreased as much as eight inches after warm rain earlier this week fell at high elevations.

“This decline in snowpack is not something we want to see,” said Julie Koeberle, a hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The snowpack in northwest Oregon is 27 percent of normal near Mount Hood and 42 percent of normal around Bend, Ore., she said.

“Some of that is settling (snow), but a lot of it actually is melting because there’s not a lot of snow to begin with,” Koeberle said.


Link



More rain forecast for flood-hit US
BBC weather video, 10 December 2015 Last updated at 12:38
Flooding has claimed lives and property in the northwest of the US.
As BBC Weather's Ben Rich explains, there is more rain in the forecast for affected parts of Washington state and Oregon.


Ah, my poor old aunt in Seattle. Hope everybody stays safe, including our commenters from there.
Good night with this from foggy Germany ...

BTW, utter despair in German weatherblogs due to the continuous warm outlook until Christmas. Some cranes already return to their northern summer location, and hedgehogs awake from hibernation.


Latest GFS temperature outlook for my town Mainz (10C=50F).


Edit next morning: worse and worse, lol.
Thanks Bob Henson, in an exchange I had with Phil on this several months ago, it was pretty clear even then that the 2016 hurricane season would be an elusive forecast, given the risk for hyperactivity (1998) or a complete bust (1973, 1983) & I personally can't find any viable analogs over the past century & a half that observed such a massive NINO near (what I'm assuming to be) the end of a warm AMO regime... On other note, the classical early winter strong-Super NINO warmth in the upper midwest is very impressive at the moment, even considering the ENSO background. In fact, Bismarck, ND, Minneapolis-St.Paul, are currently running warmer than December 1877 (which as many know from some of the ENSO data I've presented was a Super El Nino), which is very significant given that according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group under the University of Minnesota, the winter of 1877-78 was the warmest winter of the post-settlement era in Minnesota by ~4F over 1997-98. These findings also appear to be confirmed by the 20th century reanalysis data, Aceituno et al, & the HADCRUT4 global temperature time series.

The CPC must be running out of brown...


Link


The North American snowpack is dismal to say the least, with the southern edge near the south shore of Hudson Bay. This would have been normal a month ago...

Current N hem snow cover


November 10th climatology
Quoting 5. MahFL:

Hmm in other words they have no idea what will happen...

A wise man once said: "Prediction is difficult, especially when it involves the future."
re: post 28, Webberweather

At the risk of belaboring the obvious, what is now Minnesota was inhabited by humans long before the arrival of Europeans.
Quoting 19. Patrap:




Ironically, the price of Gasoline here is down to $1.66 a Gal. Gas prices

Crude is down to $37.16 bbl for WTI

www.oil-price.net

Gas prices in Spain about 1.20 euros/Litre, so that about $1.30/ litre.
That's about $5 gallon.
Prices in the UK are about £1.i0 a litre, so that's about £5.00 a gallon or about $7.50 a gallon.

Just to make it crystal clear. UK gas prices about $7.50 a gallon down from much higher than this earlier this year.

Bearing in mind the UK gas prices, we always have to consider that their roads are chocked with traffic and there is no real alternative to using private transport to get about in the place.
Quoting 32. PlazaRed:


Gas prices in Spain about 1.20 euros/Litre, so that about $1.30/ litre.
That's about $5 gallon.
Prices in the UK are about %uFFFD1.i0 a litre, so that's about %uFFFD5.00 a gallon or about $7.50 a gallon.

Just to make it crystal clear. UK gas prices about $7.50 a gallon down from much higher than this earlier this year.

Bearing in mind the UK gas prices, we always have to consider that their roads are chocked with traffic and there is no real alternative to using private transport to get about in the place.


Indeed,..I do love Europe, as my last trip was Via US Naval Transport, USS Raleigh LPD-1,returning from a NATO gig,Winter Exercises in the Spring of 84'. Tromso,Bremerhaven, Amsterdam, Portsmouth.



Spring in the Mid Atlantic with the Fleet is quite a awesome sight.

Grothar was there as well representing.Norway is where I want to retire to.




its the great unknown
by mid march will be time
to take a look

nice update thanks
Quoting 30. ACSeattle:

re: post 28, Webberweather

At the risk of belaboring the obvious, what is now Minnesota was inhabited by humans long before the arrival of Europeans.


I think it was implied that this "post settlement-era" refers specifically to European settlement that began in earnest in the 19th century...
Quoting 33. Patrap:



Indeed,..I do love Europe, as my last trip was Via US Naval Transport, USS Raleigh LPD-1,returning from a NATO gig,Winter Exercises. Tromso,Bremerhaven, Amsterdam, Portsmouth.



Spring in the Mid Atlantic with the Fleet is awesome sight..

Grothar was there as well representing.Norway is where I want to retire to.






I've retired a while back. I get about $50 a week pension from the UK, nothing from anywhere else.
If I could move any more south I would be in Africa, the place is so cold in the winter, its down to only about 20/C in the mid day here right now at the moment here.
Maybe a move to the Canary Islands are the solution.

Meanwhile, we have had almost no rain for about 6 weeks now in our rainy season. At weekend we might get light shower, northing more.

Bearing everything In mind, as long as you have no desire to spend any form of money, southern Europe is not a bad pace to be except it gets a bit cold in the winter and you have to face up to paying about $15 a month electric bills to keep the place lit and functional.
Quoting 33. Patrap:



Indeed,..I do love Europe, as my last trip was Via US Naval Transport, USS Raleigh LPD-1,returning from a NATO gig,Winter Exercises in the Spring of 84'. Tromso,Bremerhaven, Amsterdam, Portsmouth.



Spring in the Mid Atlantic with the Fleet is quite a awesome sight.

Grothar was there as well representing.Norway is where I want to retire to.






Have you been to Portugal? The cost of living is less than Norway and the climate is less challenging. I made my first trip to Europe to Lisbon in Oct. and had a fantastic time. Last month was the 40th anniversary of the fall of the Estado Novo, the dictatorship that was presided over for over 40 years by Antonio Olivera
Salazar

Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson.....
I am putting up the tree tonight here is a little video I am watching wanted to share


"A thunder storm above Fontainebleau, as seen from the balloon," 1871

My forecast for the 2016 hurricane season are:
16 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
Folks, I think it would be best if the spotlight turned on SE Texas this weekend. Here's why:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH THIS RAINFALL
CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA LAKES AND RIVERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LITTLE RIVER...SULPHUR...SABINE...AND RED
RIVER BASINS.


If this forecast verifies, I suspect President Obama will be declaring a lot of Texas major disaster areas, my city, Houston, probably bearing the full fury of the storm. I welcome any thoughts from my fellow Houstonians
Talks about this El nino event vs 1997 and other years.Link





There will be a severe weather risk beginning Saturday Afternoon across North Texas and Central Texas. There remains some uncertainty on how the inital severe weather threat will evolve so expect timing/spatial refinements. By Saturday evening its likely a line of thunderstorms will fire up on the leading edge of a east/southeastward moving cold front. Some of the storms in the line could be severe with damaging wind gusts. A couple tornadoes are also possible as there will be plenty of wind shear. The threat for a couple severe storms could continue into Sunday morning across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. If we have more sun on Saturday and the atmosphere becomes more unstable the severe weather threat will increase. Likewise more clouds/rain on Saturday will help keep the severe weather threat more limited and localized. Check back for updates as changes can be expected as we get closer to Saturday


This is from Texas Storm Chasers. The statement that I am interested in is in bold lettering, as you can see. Can anyone tell me if there's anything to what they say in regards to cloud cover?
Quoting 42. Andrebrooks:

My forecast for the 2016 hurricane season are:
16 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes


15-7-4 for me
My forecast for the 2016 hurricane season

main is 30 17 10
Quoting 48. BaltimoreBrian:

Geminids set to light up winter sky in year's best meteor shower





Wanna see what's gonna light up my winter sky?

A report from the Willamette Valley. We've had heavy rains and some flooding over the past few days but nothing really that doesn't happen every few years. I think the drought last summer exacerbated some of the problems since the soil got so dried out. Today in the mid-Willamette Valley we had some thunderstorms (unusual for us) with some sun breaks (saw a rainbow while listening to thunder). We had a short heavy rain event around 2:00 PM. There was a small tornado reported this morning in Battle Ground, WA (just north of the Portland/Vancouver area). I-5 northbound is still blocked by a landslide near Woodland, WA (just north of Battle Ground).
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Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOHALE (02-20152016)
4:00 AM RET December 11 2015
=================================
Northeast of Rodriques Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bohale (996 hPa) located at 15.8S 69.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
45 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
extending up to 90 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 16.6S 68.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 17.9S 67.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 21.3S 65.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 25.8S 63.7E - 25 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
================
During the last 6 hours, deep convection has strengthened within a curved band located in the eastern and southern of the center. 2200z 37ghz SSMI microwave imagery shows a low level clockwise circulation well defined with an eye nearly closed. Thanks to this data and the animated infrared imagery, the system has named Bohale at 0000z.

Bohale is currently tracking southwestward, steered by a mid levels ridge in the east and and a geopotential weakness in the south. Available numerical weather prediction spread has decreased with anyway some differences of velocity along this track towards the southwest. The official scenario is close to a consensus of available models.

The system is currently under the upper level ridge. Today, Bohale should continue to intensify benefiting from this low vertical wind shear. From Saturday, the northwestward vertical wind shear ahead a new upper level trough should gradually strengthen to become moderate then strong the next few days. Thus, the system should not exceed the moderate tropical storm stage. From Sunday evolving south of 20S, with the increase in wind shear and the lack of oceanic content, the system should weaken. From Monday, the system should curve southeastward and fill up gradually.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
9:00 AM JST December 11 2015
====================================
Near Caroline Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.0N 139.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 10.4N 135.3E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 23. Gearsts:

I almost won :(
Yep.. In my opinion , you did win. I believe T.D. 9 was actually a T.S for a a few hours, so it could have been 12/4/2 after all....I went 9/4/2...Which is not bad.
So record warm waters means a cold AMO?
Here's the real question about this chain of storms slamming into PNW.

What's the snow line?

The AGW says , snow lines are moving up the mountains.
Quoting 56. HurricaneFan:

So record warm waters means a cold AMO?

The opposite. Record warm waters are associated with high AMO values.
OLYMPEX ‏@UW_OLYMPEX Dec 8

So far in December, 33.5 inches of precip has fallen at our 3400' Wynoochee site. It's December 8. @NWSSeattle
Quoting 60. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The opposite. Record warm waters are associated with high AMO values.
warm waters where? That's important.
Quoting 66. Patrap:




Quoting 65. Patrap:





Bad!
Quoting 65. Patrap:




What a career....
NWS New orleans/Slidell

Discussion... /issued 438 PM CST Thursday Dec 10 2015/

Short term /tonight through Sunday/...

Main concerns are whether or not dense fog will develop again
tonight and early Friday morning...and assessing the potential of
severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

Surface high has shifted east over the eastern Gulf Coast region.
This high will remain to our east while an area of low pressure
develops over the Central High plains region tonight. A stronger
pressure gradient should result in surface winds remaining up a
bit tonight...although mostly light. Winds just above the surface
in the 500 to 1000 feet above ground level layer are expected to be 15 to 20
knots...so this should not allow nearly as strong of an inversion
to develop as the last few mornings. Also working against
significant coverage of dense fog is there should be areas of more
elevated low clouds that should also inhibit strong radiational
cooling. Have still maintained patchy to areas of fog in the
forecast from midnight tonight to 9 am tomorrow morning...however
did not include mention of dense fog.

Any fog will lift by middle morning Friday then it is expected to be
dry and continued warm Friday into Saturday as southerly winds
continue to bring warmer air. Trended towards the warmer mav MOS
guidance to a degree or so higher Friday and a degree or two
higher Saturday. That means highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
will be common...so record highs could be threatened.

Regarding the severe weather potential on Sunday...very strong
dynamics will come into play as a vigorous shortwave trough moves
out of the southwest states and northwest Mexico on Saturday into
the Southern Plains late Saturday night into Sunday. There are no
longer significant differences between the operational runs of the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS /12z runs/...so confidence is much higher with
regards to timing. The European model (ecmwf) does take on more of a slight
negative tilt with the middle level shortwave trough as it moves into
the eastern plains towards the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Very pronounced middle level height falls will sweep across the
central Gulf Coast region Sunday through the day into the evening.
Bulk shear and low level helicities will be very strong...but as
is often is the case with these cool season systems the
instability is forecast to be weak. The ecwmf does destabilize the
northwest 1/3 or so of the forecast area a bit more by late
morning to early afternoon Sunday...so some of the composite
severe parameters are indicating a higher severe and tornado
potential. Looking at cips analog runs...there is high potential
for a low number of severe thunderstorm events over the northwest
1/3 of the area...however severe potential cannot be ruled out
anywhere in our region. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
concern...however a few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Regarding timing...a squall line of showers and thunderstorms
should approach or reach the far west/northwest...west of Baton
Rouge...by late morning or midday Sunday...and continue east
through most of southeast Louisiana and southwest to south central
Mississippi by late Sunday afternoon...and over eastern areas
including the Mississippi Gulf Coast during the late afternoon to
evening hours.

22/dew point

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday night/...

The cold front is expected to sweep through the forecast area
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night followed by drier and cooler
conditions Monday into Tuesday. The models have substantial
differences in the movement and timing of the next shortwave
trough and frontal system to impact our area...so a blend of the
models suggest some higher rain chances will return Wednesday into
Wednesday night before another dry and cool push late in the
week. 22/dew point
Rainbow

Rapidscat
Do you know if there was any flooding in Corvallis? I haven't seen anything in the news although a few times the river spilled over into Trysting Tree Golf Course and out off near Hwy 34 when I lived there so I wouldn't be surprised.

Quoting 51. riverat544:

A report from the Willamette Valley. We've had heavy rains and some flooding over the past few days but nothing really that doesn't happen every few years. I think the drought last summer exacerbated some of the problems since the soil got so dried out. Today in the mid-Willamette Valley we had some thunderstorms (unusual for us) with some sun breaks (saw a rainbow while listening to thunder). We had a short heavy rain event around 2:00 PM. There was a small tornado reported this morning in Battle Ground, WA (just north of the Portland/Vancouver area). I-5 northbound is still blocked by a landslide near Woodland, WA (just north of Battle Ground).
dear valued member
pls refrain from carrying on your personal dispute within the featured blog member/members post
model forecasted snow cover depicted till dec 18 2015 northern hemisphere plot

and u just will not let it go what more would u do I am you you are me tell me what u would do


00z GFS run seems to put heavy rain/severe threat to the north of the Houston metro. Or am I reading it wrong?
I've been too busy to post much in the last couple of days, but thanks for the new blog, Bob. I have now completed a careful analysis of the state of winter in SE Alabama, harnessing the power of my Pentium II with the Celeron processor. After feeding in the data and analyzing the output, these are my potential scenarios.

A horrible cold winter with at least one blizzard. It will be cold enough that I post at least three times this reminds me of Cleveland. - 10% chance

A very warm winter with no snow or ice, very few days were it even gets below freezing, and all the flowers come up in February. It will be warm enough that I will post at least three times this reminds me of California. - 10% chance

A winter that's more mild on average with about the normal number of days below freezing. A bunch of warm days with the usual amount of tornadoes. There will be one ice storm, so Yankees can make fun of all the southern drivers again. - 40% chance

A winter that's a little colder than average, but still with a bunch of warm days. It will be cold enough I will have to find my parka at least once. We'll have more thunderstorms but just wimpy tornadoes. There will be one ice storm, so Yankees can make fun of all the southern drivers again. - 40% chance

There you go. It was hard work, but I think the results are worth it. Of course, I'll revisit my scenarios in mid-February to make minor corrections to what I've posted on December 10. I'm pretty confident one of my scenarios will be mostly right by about...say... March 21 or so.
6 inches of the cold white stuff on the ground with more expected tonight. Happy!
Another slug predicted for Sunday:
Truckee, CA Forecast
Quoting 19. Patrap:




Ironically, the price of Gasoline here is down to $1.66 a Gal. Gas prices

Crude is down to $37.16 bbl for WTI

www.oil-price.net


Yes, but that's only because the major oil producing countries, want to banish frackers getting oil not from them...so are trying to make it unaffordable for them to bother with the costs of fracking by intentioanlly lowering the price
Quoting 83. oldnewmex:

6 inches of the cold white stuff on the ground with more expected tonight. Happy!
Another slug predicted for Sunday:
Truckee, CA Forecast
Just got off the phone with my brother in Reno and he's getting some moderate to heavy snow there ar 5105 feet. Looks like it will last another couple of hours before tapering off, and he'll probably get two or three inches. Reno has already had more snow than they had all of last winter, so things are off to a hopeful start. I, OTOH, had a high of 78. Skiers in the East are starting to contemplate suicide. :-)
Quoting 82. sar2401:

lol, that's a pretty high-tech forecast, SAR.
Here in Truckee, we delight in making fun of (cursing at) drivers from Sac or the Bay area.
Quoting 32. PlazaRed:


Gas prices in Spain about 1.20 euros/Litre, so that about $1.30/ litre.
That's about $5 gallon.
Prices in the UK are about £1.i0 a litre, so that's about £5.00 a gallon or about $7.50 a gallon.

Just to make it crystal clear. UK gas prices about $7.50 a gallon down from much higher than this earlier this year.

Bearing in mind the UK gas prices, we always have to consider that their roads are chocked with traffic and there is no real alternative to using private transport to get about in the place.


Eh? Nothing compared to living in So Calif (or even Seattle). Way better public transport in the UK and way less congestion (though has gotten worse admittedly) but still nothing compared to So Calif! And most because large UK towns and cities weren't built for much road traffic (being most were planned around VERY old town structure), where US cities were built for it, and they're STILL worse
Quoting 85. mitthbevnuruodo:



Yes, but that's only because the major oil producing countries, want to banish frackers getting oil not from them...so are trying to make it unaffordable for them to bother with the costs of fracking by intentioanlly lowering the price
That's correct. The Saudis and Kuwaitis can produce oil profitably for as low as $8 a barrel. No other oil producing country can do so. The northern US and Canadian oil and tar sands are a huge threat to their market domination. They will crush us, along with the North Sea producers, the other Middle Eastern oil producers, and everybody else in OPEC if they have to, just so long as the world buys oil from them. Iraq will fall further into disarray if they are not earning money from selling their oil, which will increase the risks of terrorism and more unrest and refugees. Without keeping market share, the only other thing those two countries have to sell is sand. Just in case anyone was wondering, those two countries are not our friends.
Quoting 36. PlazaRed:


I've retired a while back. I get about $50 a week pension from the UK, nothing from anywhere else.
If I could move any more south I would be in Africa, the place is so cold in the winter, its down to only about 20/C in the mid day here right now at the moment here.
Maybe a move to the Canary Islands are the solution.

Meanwhile, we have had almost no rain for about 6 weeks now in our rainy season. At weekend we might get light shower, northing more.

Bearing everything In mind, as long as you have no desire to spend any form of money, southern Europe is not a bad pace to be except it gets a bit cold in the winter and you have to face up to paying about $15 a month electric bills to keep the place lit and functional.


Now that is defintely better than you'd get in the UK. I like it cool, so don't run heater much, even in the winter, but even what little I do, costs a load (well to me, as I like 'cost of living' expenses to be as low as possible...as have so much better uses for my money, than making utilities and their shareholders even more rich).
Quoting 87. oldnewmex:


lol, that's a pretty high-tech forecast, SAR.
Here in Truckee, we delight in making fun of (cursing at) drivers from Sac or the Bay area.
Yes, I had to use all of Webberweather's numbers to produce it but, you know, I feel good about it. I only missed the number of hurricanes this year by four...or maybe it was five. Still, close enough. I'm pretty sure my winter scenarios will be just as good. :-)
Quoting 48. BaltimoreBrian:

Geminids set to light up winter sky in year's best meteor shower




I hope so! For years, I have dragged my daughter out to see meteor showers...but have yet to see one that we see more than few, isolated ones...so she thinks I'm full of it! haha
Quoting 89. mitthbevnuruodo:



Eh? Nothing compared to living in So Calif (or even Seattle). Way better public transport in the UK and way less congestion (though has gotten worse admittedly) but still nothing compared to So Calif! And most because large UK towns and cities weren't built for much road traffic (being most were planned around VERY old town structure), where US cities were built for it, and they're STILL worse
I've only visited the UK twice, but my experience was that the trains and public transport was much superior to what we had in the Bay Area. I was able to get from London to Scotland and points inbetween without a car. Try that in California. The motorways got crowded at rush hours, but at least they seemed fine at off peak periods. Southern California has gotten to the point the off peak period is from about midnight until 2 am. The recession is the only thing that has helped traffic, since you don't need to drive if you don't have a job. With a fuel tax of $3.31 per US gallon, plus a 20% VAT, plus a CO2 tax, it's not surprising that the cost of petrol in the UK is just a bit higher than in the US.
Quoting 90. sar2401:

That's correct. The Saudis and Kuwaitis can produce oil profitably for as low as $8 a barrel. No other oil producing country can do so. The northern US and Canadian oil and tar sands are a huge threat to their market domination. They will crush us, along with the North Sea producers, the other Middle Eastern oil producers, and everybody else in OPEC if they have to, just so long as the world buys oil from them. Iraq will fall further into disarray if they are not earning money from selling their oil, which will increase the risks of terrorism and more unrest and refugees. Without keeping market share, the only other thing those two countries have to sell is sand. Just in case anyone was wondering, those two countries are not our friends.


Thank you Sar. I think a lot of people don't realise just how rigged the price can be (though not saying Pat doesn't, as he probably does) but in general, so many people see it cheaper, and just don't understand what's behind it is likely dodgy
Quoting 92. ColoradoBob1:

Please don't '"ban" me , banish me.


Noooooooooo, don't want that. after living in the UK for 15 years, it's weird to me to see, just how puritanical it is over there, despite being 'the land of the free'. The UK is really SO much more relaxed than the US...aside from maybe, CCTV LOL Not saying all of it is better for it, but some things, there's no need to be totally puritanical. But, the US was settled by VERY puritanical people. There wasn't just political settlers way back when. But people who were oppressed religiously, but were christians, but puritanical sects. Part of why far right christian ideology is strong in the US. Not all were rebels like the founding fathers.

Anyway hey, tonight was actually chilly! Been SO mild from that Caribbean express. No frost, but actually felt a bit more like December. might actually get a cozy sleep in today, under fuzzy blanket :D LOL
Quoting 95. sar2401:

I've only visited the UK twice, but my experience was that the trains and public transport was much superior to what we had in the Bay Area. I was able to get from London to Scotland and points inbetween without a car. Try that in California. The motorways got crowded at rush hours, but at least they seemed fine at off peak periods. Southern California has gotten to the point the off peak period is from about midnight until 2 am. The recession is the only thing that has helped traffic, since you don't need to drive if you don't have a job. With a fuel tax of $3.31 per US gallon, plus a 20% VAT, plus a CO2 tax, it's not surprising that the cost of petrol in the UK is just a bit higher than in the US.


I was here 10 years before I got my driving licence. And that was mainly because after being in Wales for 3 years, it really was hard to get around (mainly because the area in North Wales is very seasonal, tourist areas etc). Even with a car, it is sometimes preferable to get a train. Going to London, man, can get cheap fares sometimes on the train, nothing compared to driving!

I always thought the higher price of fuel here, was likely contorted with the fact that people drove less here...so less profit out of it..compared to the US, where people will commute much further and drive much further. As say, going from the north, is very easy to get to the south or Scotland, but in the US (especially out west), you pretty much have to drive. So, gas/oil companies like to make the same basic amount from most countries. So cost is less for high gas consuming countries...but more for ones that use less, like the UK. People here say it's cause of fuel taxes. But Calif def had fuel taxes too, so have doubts about that argument, but am always willing to admit I'm wrong
According to Jeff on KHOU WX forum:

After several days of mainly clear conditions and mild temperatures…a strong system will approach the area this weekend.

Southerly flow has returned to the area which will lead to gradually warming dewpoints and overnight lows starting tonight and peaking Saturday. Normal low for this time of year is in the mid 40’s and by Saturday mornings lows will average 65-70 over the region. After highs both Thursday and Friday will also be very warm for early December standards running in the 78-82 degree range. Record highs may be reached or exceeded especially on Friday. Not expecting any rainfall tonight through Friday afternoon.

Upper level storm system drops into the SW US early this weekend and moves across TX Saturday into Sunday. Low level jet begins to crank up Friday night with speeds of 40-50kts by Saturday which will help draw moisture northward off the Gulf of Mexico. Large scale general lift increasing Saturday from both warm air advection pattern and upper level position of the trough and jet stream. Expect to see a gradual increase in showers across SE TX on Saturday…with maybe a few thunderstorms by Saturday evening. While low level shear profiles look favorable for severe weather, instability appears to be lacking at this time.

Cold front should cross the region between midnight and noon on Sunday with a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Still looking at lacking instability for severe storms, but favorable wind profiles could make up for a lack of energy. Main threat would be wind damage and a brief tornado if stronger storms do in fact develop.

Forecast models do show a good dump of high PW air into the region ahead of the front which will likely result in heavy rainfall especially with the stronger storms. Average amounts of 1-2 inches are most likely with higher amounts of 3-4 inches possible especially east of I-45. The area has had some time to dry out over the last 5-7 days which should allow some of this rainfall to be absorbed, however area rivers especially the Trinity and Brazos are still flow very high from the N TX rainfall over Thanksgiving and this additional rainfall will affect those basins. In fact flood control releases have begun on both the Brazos and Trinity basins to help build some buffer into the pool levels ahead of the upcoming rainfall event.

Post frontal air mass will return the area to near normal for this time of year of lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s by next Monday.


My fellow Houstonians, I'm starting to get nervous. This storm system will probably the GRINCH that stole Houston's Christmas.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MELOR (1527)
15:00 PM JST December 11 2015
====================================
Near Caroline Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Melor (1002 hPa) located at 9.1N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 12.3N 133.3E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 13.8N 129.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 13.9N 127.1E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 98. mitthbevnuruodo:



I was here 10 years before I got my driving licence. And that was mainly because after being in Wales for 3 years, it really was hard to get around (mainly because the area in North Wales is very seasonal, tourist areas etc). Even with a car, it is sometimes preferable to get a train. Going to London, man, can get cheap fares sometimes on the train, nothing compared to driving!

I always thought the higher price of fuel here, was likely contorted with the fact that people drove less here...so less profit out of it..compared to the US, where people will commute much further and drive much further. As say, going from the north, is very easy to get to the south or Scotland, but in the US (especially out west), you pretty much have to drive. So, gas/oil companies like to make the same basic amount from most countries. So cost is less for high gas consuming countries...but more for ones that use less, like the UK. People here say it's cause of fuel taxes. But Calif def had fuel taxes too, so have doubts about that argument, but am always willing to admit I'm wrong
LOL. Who ever wants to admit they're wrong? :-) No, in the UK, it has nothing to do with consumption. Since most of the petrol there is refined from Brent oil, the cost is higher to start with. Brent closed at $39 today compared to $36.50 for West Texas Intermediate. Both these prices are the lowest in the past seven years. However, the major difference is taxes. The official gas tax in California is 39.5 cents per gallon. Some cities have imposed additional taxes, and some cities have sales taxes that run as high as 10%. There's also an additional hidden tax imposed by California's mandatory antipollution fuel blending for different areas, and winter and summer fuel, all of which raises the cost. Still, the highest tax cost anywhere in California might be $1.30 including sales tax, far below the basic $3.23 gas tax in the UK.
Quoting 71. calkevin77:

Do you know if there was any flooding in Corvallis? I haven't seen anything in the news although a few times the river spilled over into Trysting Tree Golf Course and out off near Hwy 34 when I lived there so I wouldn't be surprised.

I grew up in Corvallis. The area where Trysting Tree is located is an old slough purposely left low to help flood waters bypass Corvallis. I can remember when I was young several times when the highway was blocked by flooding there. During the 1964 flood there was water clear up to 4th street in downtown Corvallis. Kiger Island got cut off by flooding fairly often. This flood isn't going to get big enough to flood Corvallis but there may be some water going through the bypass channel at TT.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Near Gale Warning
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER TC BOHALE (02-20152016)
10:00 AM RET December 11 2015
=================================
Northeast of Rodriques Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Bohale (999 hPa) located at 16.5S 69.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
================
Extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 17.4S 68.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 18.5S 67.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS 21.9S 65.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS 26.3 S 63.8E - 25 knots (Depression Se Comblant)

Additional Information
================
During the last 6 hours, deep convection remained at the same level and the system now displays a central dense overcast-like pattern. In the light of the last satellite data (partial 0500z ascat swath and infrared/visible imagery), the system has been demoted to the tropical depression stage.

Ex-Bohale is currently tracking southward, steered by a mid levels ridge in the east and and a geopotential weakness in the south. Available numerical weather prediction guidance overestimate the system intensity, except the ECMWF model which seems to be the closest to the observations. The chosen scenario is thus close to the ECMWF forecast, with a fluctuating intensity around the current level during the next 24 hours.

The system is currently at the far western side of the upper level ridge. From Saturday, the northwestward vertical wind shear ahead a new upper level trough should gradually strengthen to become moderate then strong the next few days. Thus, the system should weaken under this unfavorable upper constraint and the lack of oceanic content, especially south of 20S. From monday, the system should curve southeastward and fill up
You guys are the best!! Thanks for all the updates Masters and Henson!!! Amazing
"Melor" looks impressive right now. Is that banding features I see on its north side?

Quoting 27. barbamz:

More rain forecast for flood-hit US
BBC weather video, 10 December 2015 Last updated at 12:38
Flooding has claimed lives and property in the northwest of the US.
As BBC Weather's Ben Rich explains, there is more rain in the forecast for affected parts of Washington state and Oregon.


Ah, my poor old aunt in Seattle. Hope everybody stays safe, including our commenters from there.
Good night with this from foggy Germany ...

BTW, utter despair in German weatherblogs due to the continuous warm outlook until Christmas. Some cranes already return to their northern summer location, and hedgehogs awake from hibernation.


Latest GFS temperature outlook for my town Mainz (10C=50F).


Edit next morning: worse and worse, lol.

Pathological, isn't it.
After two totally boring 'winters', one hot, one inferno, looks like another is shaping up like that. Dec is going for gold.
Good morning folks. Going on 19 days without a drop of rain at my location. Getting very dry.
Quoting 109. tampabaymatt:

Good morning folks. Going on 19 days without a drop of rain at my location. Getting very dry.


Euro says you get rain next Tuesday. Well see.
111. MahFL
The NW Pacific low is a lot closer to land this am :

Quoting 56. HurricaneFan:

So record warm waters means a cold AMO?
No
Quoting 85. mitthbevnuruodo:



Yes, but that's only because the major oil producing countries, want to banish frackers getting oil not from them...so are trying to make it unaffordable for them to bother with the costs of fracking by intentioanlly lowering the price
More likely there is a gluten of oil on the world markets, the world economy is not all that good right now, especially China, as they are going to have to spend a very large amount of money to clean up their environment.
Quoting 113. NativeSun:

More likely there is a gluten of oil on the world markets, the world economy is not all that good right now, especially China, as they are going to have to spend a very large amount of money to clean up their environment.


gluten free is best for the pipelines ;)
Good morning, I keep seeing maps and discussions on being wetter here in Florida because of El-Nino. Don't see it happening anytime soon. Forecast for Melbourne area is for more well above temperatures with no real rain or coolness in site at the moment.
Quoting 109. tampabaymatt:

Good morning folks. Going on 19 days without a drop of rain at my location. Getting very dry.
Quoting 115. hurricanewatcher61:

Good morning, I keep seeing maps and discussions on being wetter here in Florida because of El-Nino. Don't see it happening anytime soon. Forecast for Melbourne area is for more well above temperatures with no real rain or coolness in site at the moment.


That's not true as our most reliable model (Euro) is showing a couple of shots at some decent rains one being Tuesday and the other being Friday. GFS has been all over the map. Tuesday could be interesting as a front stalls over C FL there could be a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms that sets up from Tampa north and stretches toward Daytona. Euro also has 2" plus PWAT's next Tuesday as well. Melbourne however may not see much of this on Tuesday but you are already well above normal for December anyway so its time to spread the wealth.



From the Tampa NWS Discussion...

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD NORTH OF FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA....KEEPING DRY AND GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...DRAGGING THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. THE BIGGER CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL COME
FROM AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THOUGH
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY
AND LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TO RETURN DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BUILDING
IN THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES PICKING UP AS
WELL.

Link
Good morning over there. Here a beautiful photo gallery to wake up:
Photographer Captures Incredible ‘Liquid Mountains’ During Wind Storms on Lake Erie
Mike Wilkinson's picture, a day ago
119. MahFL
Quoting 118. barbamz:

Good morning over there. Here a beautiful photo gallery to wake up:
Photographer Captures Incredible ‘Liquid Mountains’ During Wind Storms on Lake Erie
Mike Wilkinson's picture, a day ago



Wow, I have never seen anything like that before in my years.
Good Morning. The Conus forecast, wv loops, and Conus jet: looking (a good thing) like Northern California and nearby parts are getting some snow pack this Winter season to help with drought conditions (and the water reservoirs) downstream in the Spring.






Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EST Fri Dec 11 2015

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 11 2015 - 12Z Sun Dec 13 2015

...Heavy rain possible over the Pacific Northwest to Northern California...

...Heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy snow for the Cascades and parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region...

A storm over the Central Plains/Rockies will slowly move out of the
Rockies on Saturday morning while a quasi-stationary front develops from
the Central Plains to Southern New England by Saturday evening.
Upper-level energy and onshore flow will aid in producing rain along the
West Coast on Friday into Saturday morning before tapering off for a short
time on Saturday afternoon before the next system. Snow will develop over
the higher elevations over the West Coast over the Northern Intermountain
Region/Northern Rockies into the Central Rockies through Saturday. Light
snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains into parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley Friday morning into early Saturday morning.
This drought situation in California is still dire:
Current U.S. Drought Monitor
So even the rain, much less the snow, is very welcome in California and the NW Pacific region.
Bob Henson talking about Hypercanes and their cubed strength over normal hurricanes on the History Channel right now...
Quoting 96. mitthbevnuruodo:



Thank you Sar. I think a lot of people don't realise just how rigged the price can be (though not saying Pat doesn't, as he probably does) but in general, so many people see it cheaper, and just don't understand what's behind it is likely dodgy


Cheap oil in the early and mid 1980s killed the alternative energy projects and companies of that time. Seems reasonable the same thing could happen again with the addition as Sar says, that expensive alternative oil sources will also become uncompetitive and the companies that exploit it will fail leading to our next shortage.

VERY high oil coal and gas prices could reduce carbon emissions but I don't see that happening for a sustained period in the 30-40 years I have left.


Meanwhile, back to the weather, no frost on a calm clear night in DC metro in mid December.. Just lots of dew. Very pleasant three days coming up here, 40s for lows and 60s for highs. In the department of "always something to gripe about" this is near upper limits for greens quality from the garden with the weak december sun but I expect plenty of chilling soon to restore the normally very very high sugar levels in greens harvested this time of year.
Quoting 118. barbamz:

Good morning over there. Here a beautiful photo gallery to wake up:
Photographer Captures Incredible ‘Liquid Mountains’ During Wind Storms on Lake Erie
Mike Wilkinson's picture, a day ago

Cool pics Barb..What the pictures dont show is how fast those wave are moving..They move faster than ocean waves, especially offshore.
That is good news. If that Safeway is still on 4th, I bet it has seen its share of close calls over the years. One year while I was there we had a similar setup as y'all had this week. My girlfriend and I had a close encounter with a mudslide on Hwy 20 near Eddyville on our way out to her grandmother's house in Yachats. We ended up having to spend the weekend out on the coast since that section of highway was closed for a couple of days. Corvallis had received about a quarter of the rain that they got West of there, but it was still enough to mess things up a bit.

Quoting 102. riverat544:


I grew up in Corvallis. The area where Trysting Tree is located is an old slough purposely left low to help flood waters bypass Corvallis. I can remember when I was young several times when the highway was blocked by flooding there. During the 1964 flood there was water clear up to 4th street in downtown Corvallis. Kiger Island got cut off by flooding fairly often. This flood isn't going to get big enough to flood Corvallis but there may be some water going through the bypass channel at TT.
Remarkable. Thanks for sharing. It is the lighting that makes it special for me. One thing I will carry to my grave is the unique winter light growing up on the Jersey Shore. Being around the water so much, I carry random mental snapshots of a tempestuous ocean against the blue steel background of a departing winter storm.

Being in the water only heightens the effect. Wearing a wetsuit hood muffles all sound which makes it that much more surreal.


Quoting 118. barbamz:

Good morning over there. Here a beautiful photo gallery to wake up:
Photographer Captures Incredible ‘Liquid Mountains’ During Wind Storms on Lake Erie
Mike Wilkinson's picture, a day ago

Quoting 118. barbamz:

Good morning over there. Here a beautiful photo gallery to wake up:
Photographer Captures Incredible ‘Liquid Mountains’ During Wind Storms on Lake Erie
Mike Wilkinson's picture, a day ago


It's lovely to be able to greet the continent back there with a Good Morning every day as we are already relaxing into the end of the day :)
Quoting 114. TheBigBanana:



gluten free is best for the pipelines ;)
Very true, but not the consumers.
Good Morning All,
Just wondering who won the Hurricane count for this year?
Or have they not said that yet because the final count has
not came out yet????

Taco :o)
Quoting 116. StormTrackerScott:



That's not true as our most reliable model (Euro) is showing a couple of shots at some decent rains one being Tuesday and the other being Friday. GFS has been all over the map. Tuesday could be interesting as a front stalls over C FL there could be a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms that sets up from Tampa north and stretches toward Daytona. Euro also has 2" plus PWAT's next Tuesday as well. Melbourne however may not see much of this on Tuesday but you are already well above normal for December anyway so its time to spread the wealth.






This is about the 5th time In the past month I'm reading about heavy rain or flooding or tornadoes for Tampa and right now it's 0/4.
NWS for Tampa has a 0% chance of rain on Tuesday and 20% on Wednesday.
Baynews9 is way more aggressive with a whopping 20% chance of rain.
Quoting 132. Bucsboltsfan:



This is about the 5th time In the past month I'm reading about heavy rain or flodding or tornadoes for Tampa and right now it's 0/4.
NWS for Tampa has a 0% chance of rain on Tuesday and 20% on Wednesday.
Baynews9 is way more aggressive with a whopping 20% chance of rain.


What? Also learn to spell flooding. Geesh!
Quoting 133. StormTrackerScott:



What? Also learn to spell flooding. Geesh!


Corrected and what do you mean by "what"
Quoting 134. Bucsboltsfan:



Corrected and what do you mean by "what"


Nothing in the post above said anything about flooding & tornadoes. Now if you are talking about heavy flooding rains yest those occurred in S FL all of 14" infact. Models did at one point have that focus further north but shift south with in 3 days of the event occurring.
Quoting 135. StormTrackerScott:



Nothing in the post above said anything about flooding & tornadoes. Now if you are talking about heavy flooding rains yest those occurred in S FL all of 14" infact. Models did at one point have that focus further north but shift south with in 3 days of the event occurring.


You posted on here a week ago about flooding and tornadoes for the west coast of Fl for this weekend. I know because I take notice when I see forecasts like that especially on the weekend. So now you are forcasting a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday. That's all.
SENATE REPUBLICANS RAN A REALLY WEIRD HEARING ON CLIMATE CHANGE

ERIC NIILER SCIENCE DATE OF PUBLICATION: 12.10.15.
12.10.15


Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., points to a picture of seasonal flooding in Miami's South Beach during news conference in the Capitol's Senate studio to urge Republicans to acknowledge climate change and to work with Senate Democrats to address the issue, December 8, 2015. TOM WILLIAMS/CQ ROLL CALL/GETTY IMAGES

YOU ARE ENTERING the world of another dimension—a dimension of sight (look at the people who don’t like scientists), of sound (people talking a lot), and of mind (well, maybe not so much). There’s the signpost for the Dirksen Senate Office Building up ahead. Your next stop: Senator Ted Cruz’s hearing on climate change earlier this week, which felt very much like something from the Twilight Zone.

Cruz himself is an intense guy in a dark suit—but that’s where the evident similarities between the senator and Twilight Zone creator Rod Serling end. Serling was an abject, romantic humanist. Cruz’s hearing was more like one of the side-shifted worlds Twilight Zone stories always seemed to happen in, at the crossroads of science and superstition, fear and knowledge.

Stranger than the choreography and theatrics (police tossed a protester, Cruz spent plenty of time denouncing a witness who either didn’t show up or wasn’t invited, and a Canadian blogger barely contained his anger during a back-and-forth with Democratic Senator Ed Markey) was the topsy-turvy line of questioning pursued by Cruz, a Texas Republican and chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Competitiveness.

He opened the hearing—“Data or Dogma: Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate”—with a tale of a 2013 expedition by New Zealand scientists. They were investigating Antarctic sea ice—”ice that the climate-industrial complex had assured us was vanishing,” Cruz said. “It was there to document how the ice was vanishing in the Antarctic, but the ship became stuck. It had run into an inconvenient truth, as Al Gore might put it. Facts matter, science matters, data matters.”

So OK. To bolster that us-versus-them narrative, Cruz invited scientists who believe they are being persecuted (or denied government funding)—just like Galileo was by the Catholic Church, they kept saying.

The other side of the aisle responded that these scientists aren’t being funded because their research and ideas don’t measure up to peer-review standards—or are just plain wrong.


Audience, let’s meet our players.

John Christy, atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama. He developed the first satellite measurements of the earth’s atmosphere and even edited a chapter of the 2001 IPCC report, which combines data and studies from hundreds of climate researchers around the world. In recent years, Christy has criticized existing climate models, stated that warming is not the fault of humans, and said the consequences of shifting from fossil fuels will hurt the economy and cause more poverty. “The attempt to study climate change is thwarted by the federal process,” Christy testified. “Our thermometers only tell us what has happened, not why it happened.”

Christy’s own satellite datasets have come under fire in the past decade, and he has been forced to revise them several times. Other scientists note that the satellite record is just one dataset about the health of the planet. Surface measurements of temperature show that 2015 will be the hottest year on record.

During his testimony, Christy called for a “red team” of skeptics like himself to counter the “groupthink” of mainstream climate science.

Judith Curry, atmospheric scientist at Georgia Tech. She says science still has too much uncertainty about how bad warming will be, and whether it’s caused by industrial emissions or natural events like solar cycles and changes in ocean circulation. Curry also says she’s been bullied, shunned and attacked by lawmakers for her unpopular beliefs. In February, Arizona Democratic Congressman Raul Grijalva included both Christy and Curry in his investigation into funding sources of several scientists who have questioned climate science. Grijalva was inspired by a climate skeptic at Harvard-Smithsonian, Wei-Hock Soon, who got $1.25 million in undisclosed funds from fossil-fuel firms.

William Happer, retired Princeton physicist. He testified that carbon dioxide is getting a bad reputation and won’t hurt life on Earth. “I would like to set the record straight that carbon dioxide is not a pollution. We are breathing it out every time we breathe,” Happer said. “We are fundamentally in a carbon dioxide famine. The carbon dioxide levels are too low and oxygen levels are too high.”

–Mark Steyn, a Canadian jazz singer, author and conservative commentator. The night before the hearing Steyn had been on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox to denounce President Obama’s ISIS strategy.

Here’s an example of Steyn’s expertise:

So he didn’t make a scientific case as such. Steyn lambasted the Democratic “politico-climate nexus” that he believes is really about government trying to control the economy. He also went after the former Navy Rear Admiral and meteorologist sitting next to him on the witness table. “Rear Admiral Titley has said it’s time for the politicking for stop,” Steyn told the panel. “That in itself is politicking.” Which is deeply meta, because Steyn was trying to sway professional politicians. If you can’t politic in a senate office building, where can you politic?

Steyn was a dramatic, angry witness, grabbing his neck, throwing his hands up in exasperation, and rolling his eyes during statements by Democrats like Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey, who compared the fight against global warming to the fight against communism that inspired the space race.

The Republicans’ message is “Houston, we do not have a problem,” Markey said. “That is the wrong scientific message. They are once again questioning integrity of scientific community and the basic principles behind climate change. The only thing that requires a serious scientific investigation is why we are holding this hearing in the first place.”

Not invited were researchers from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, the National Science Foundation, or National Academies of Sciences.


Which isn’t to say the Democratic minority on the committee, led by Michigan Senator Gary Peters, didn’t try. They presented letters from nearly a dozen scientific organizations—representing climatologists, meteorologists, ecologists, geophysical scientists, geologists, chemists, soil scientists and crop scientists. All said that climate change is real and that humans are the cause.

The Democrats called one witness: former Navy Rear Adm. David Titley, a meteorologist who led the Navy’s response to climate change as a potential security threat from 2009 until 2013. “In the military, you don’t always have perfect information,” he said. “We still make decisions based on what we know. If you want for 100 percent certainty on the battlefield, you will probably be dead. Let’s not do that.”

Sound advice. But name an episode of Twilight Zone where anyone listens to that.

Patrap, while a few republicans are on-board, it worries me that stubbornness and a lack to admit "I was wrong" will prevent the majority to realize what the real deal is.
It is hard to move forward when we have Chairmen of these Important Committee's working for the Big Monied interests,instead of the Good of the Nation and Globe.

Pretty embarrassing having a Kangaroo Court like committee playing Politics with such a important issue,while serious decisions are being made in Paris at the moment

It sends the message to World Leaders and Humans globally that some here in America sell out to Money, over our future.
Quoting 129. cRRKampen:


It's lovely to be able to greet the continent back there with a Good Morning every day as we are already relaxing into the end of the day :)

Actually, I'm very envious of a continent where folks are able to stay up until the whee hours and sleep until lunch :-))) Maybe I should move to the US - if some Trump will let me in as I once was born in Turkey (suspicious, suspicious, lol).
Quoting 95. sar2401:

I've only visited the UK twice, but my experience was that the trains and public transport was much superior to what we had in the Bay Area. I was able to get from London to Scotland and points inbetween without a car. Try that in California. The motorways got crowded at rush hours, but at least they seemed fine at off peak periods. Southern California has gotten to the point the off peak period is from about midnight until 2 am. The recession is the only thing that has helped traffic, since you don't need to drive if you don't have a job. With a fuel tax of $3.31 per US gallon, plus a 20% VAT, plus a CO2 tax, it's not surprising that the cost of petrol in the UK is just a bit higher than in the US.


My only long vacation in the UK (honeymoon in 1992), I needed a car to get from London to the lake country in the Northwest (stunningly beautiful and relaxing by the way.. we stayed and hiked around in Braithwaite). Then we drove to Edinburgh and left the car and took a train back to London. First five days were in London and a car would have been a nusiance. Public transit in both London and Paris (subsequent vacation) was much better than here in the U.S. but again in France I got a car for a few days to tour the countryside, in particular taking a trip to Mont St Michel to watch the tide come flooding in, a dramatic experience not to be missed!.
That low out in the mid-Atlantic looks formidable. Got a nice comma shape to it.
Global climate talks stumble near finish line, Fabius optimistic
Source: Reuters - Fri, 11 Dec 2015 14:36 GMT
PARIS, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Efforts to craft a global accord to combat climate change stumbled on Friday with China and many other nations refusing to yield ground, forcing host France to extend the U.N. summit by a day to overcome stubborn divisions.
Despite the delay, many expressed hope the 195 nations meeting in Paris would grasp the strongest agreement yet to bind both rich and poor to curb rising greenhouse gas emissions at the climax of four years of negotiations.
"There are still a couple of very difficult issues that we're working on," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters, saying there had been progress in overnight talks.
Fraught discussions overnight exposed deep divisions on issues including a proposed goal to phase out net greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century.
China was among many nations laying out tough demands, resisting calls for early reviews of its plans to curb rising emissions.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius conceded the two-week summit would not end on Friday as planned.
He said a final text, meant to chart a way to far wider use of greener energy such as wind and solar power, would now be presented to nearly 200 nations for review only on Saturday, a day later than planned. ...
"We are nearly there. I'm optimistic," Fabius told reporters in the early afternoon, flanked by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. "I'll present a text tomorrow at 0900 (0800 GMT) to the parties that I'm sure will be adopted." ...

Whole article with interesting/worrying details see link above.
Quoting 122. weathermanwannabe:

This drought situation in California is still dire:
Current U.S. Drought Monitor


Incredibly, all of the south FL drought is gone after a good potion of south and southeast FL being dominated by severe to extreme drought this past summer. The original expectation was for the drought to be long term after being so severe. Amazingly, it ended up only being short term thanks to a very wet fall.

Who knows, maybe the driest areas of California could experience the same...
Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:

OLYMPEX ‏@UW_OLYMPEX Dec 8

So far in December, 33.5 inches of precip has fallen at our 3400' Wynoochee site. It's December 8. @NWSSeattle



Oh my gosh, that's insane.
Quoting 144. Jedkins01:



Incredibly, all of the south FL drought is gone after a good potion of south and southeast FL being dominated by severe to extreme drought this past summer. The original expectation was for the drought to be long term after being so severe. Amazingly, it ended up only being short term thanks to a very wet fall.

Who knows, maybe the driest areas of California could experience the same...


South Florida has really taken a beating this fall while we remain dry. They were complaining back over the summer when they were dry and we were getting flooded.
Quoting 142. LostTomorrows:

That low out in the mid-Atlantic looks formidable. Got a nice comma shape to it.


Indeed. And at the end it will mean more rain for the UK, I guess.
Quoting 146. Bucsboltsfan:



South Florida has really taken a beating this fall while we remain dry. They were complaining back over the summer when they were dry and we were getting flooded.


Yep, it's a good thing there has been so much rain this past summer in Central Florida or there probably would be drought by now. It may visually look like drought right now, but ground water supply is still high after so much rain this past summer.
Haven't checked but I'm guessing a solid swell for Portugal, France. Kind of an odd track. Looks like it ran over Bermuda.

Quoting 142. LostTomorrows:

That low out in the mid-Atlantic looks formidable. Got a nice comma shape to it.
Quoting 148. Jedkins01:



Yep, it's a good thing there has been so much rain this past summer in Central Florida or there probably would be drought by now. It may visually look like drought right now, but ground water supply is still high after so much rain this past summer.


Plenty of water around here, the lakes are all full.
Yup. Magicseaweed.com showing a 20', 12 second groundswell Monday for the Azores.

Quoting 149. HaoleboySurfEC:

Haven't checked but I'm guessing a solid swell for Portugal, France. Kind of an odd track. Looks like it ran over Bermuda.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 150. Bucsboltsfan:



Plenty of water around here, the lakes are all full.



Yep I'm back at my parent's house in the Tampa Bay area for winter break now, it looks really dry around here from the lack of rain, but the ponds and lakes are still pretty full, which don't match the dead grass everywhere.

It's cause the sandy soil dries out on the top layer easily, allowing grass to die easily without the frequent rain. But all the heavy rains this summer water completely filled up the ground water capacity, which has helped this area from being a drought.

Hopefully a wetter pattern will arrive at some point.
Error in the narrative.

This stark difference is largely because the 1982-83 El Niño decayed gradually, holding on till midsummer, whereas the 1997-88 El Niño quickly shifted into a moderate La Niña by late summer.

Should be 1997 -1998.
155. MahFL
Quoting 95. sar2401:

The recession is the only thing that has helped traffic, since you don't need to drive if you don't have a job.


Which recession are you referring to ?
Quoting 115. hurricanewatcher61:

Good morning, I keep seeing maps and discussions on being wetter here in Florida because of El-Nino. Don't see it happening anytime soon. Forecast for Melbourne area is for more well above temperatures with no real rain or coolness in site at the moment.


I hope we can at least get 1/4" in the next week, per that one forecast model depiction. The temperatures here remain mild but not as abnormally warm lately as it had been. The next few days look to be back to much above normal temperatures, again. This 2-3 week period on either side of the winter solstice is the only time of year where (to me at least) being out in full sun feels pleasant and dreamy warm instead of scorching, anytime the daytime temperatures are above roughly 65F or so.
The SST's for January, and now the beginning of February are too high for this time of year. The MJO will be a factor, as well as La Nina. I've been a Climatologists for 20 years, and the last time I saw the events that are happening now, were, 2004. I do not believe in advance predictions, never have. But the writing is on the wall, in plain numbers & facts. 17 Tropical Storms, 9 Hurricanes, + 5 Major.......is NOT a jump from reality for 2016.Landfall is imminent. the time glass ran out a long time ago. Again, I am NOT a predictionist.... but 20 years of hard numbers, and research going back over the last 100 years, Throw what ever technical or meteorological terms needed, equations, it all comes back to the same ending...we are heading for a very rough 2-3 years, and 2016 will be the beginning. Take Global Warming and give it back to Al Gore, this is nature taking care of the same business, same as it has done for centuries, before auto & gas emmisions, coal burning, power plants, Mother Nature corrects our errors.
Thank You, Jack LeBlanc