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El Niño’s Role in Deadly Chennai Rains; Progress in Paris Climate Talks

By: Bob Henson 4:02 PM GMT on December 07, 2015

Conditions in far southeast India are slowly improving after five weeks of frequent torrential rain that has led to more than 250 deaths. A region of low pressure positioned near Sri Lanka during much of the period channeled moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the record-warm eastern Indian Ocean toward the region. Much of the suffering has been in Chennai, an urban area of more than 9 million people that ranks as the largest in South India and among the world’s 40 largest metro areas. Parts of Chennai have spent days inundated by as much as eight feet of polluted water, with widespread power outages exacerbating the crisis. At least 18 patients died in a Chennai intensive-care unit after backup power to ventilators was knocked out. Last month Chennai recorded 1218.6 mm (47.98”) of rain, the highest observed for any November in more than 100 years of recordkeeping. Then, on December 1-2, a total of 345 mm (13.58”) fell in 24 hours, which smashed the city’s all-time 24-hour record rainfall of 261.6 mm on December 10, 1901. Estimated losses in the region have already topped $2 billion US.


Figure 1. People wade through a flooded street in Chennai, in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, on Wednesday, December 2, 2015. Image credit: AP.

Along with the heavy rains, the Indian Express cited infrastructure issues as a key part of the disaster: “While officials at the India Meteorological Department have said the exceptionally strong El Niño, along with a rare ‘coincidence of various factors’, has resulted in the heavy rain, there’s no denying that Chennai has failed in maintaining an effective storm water drainage system.” At Slate, Eric Holthaus reviewed how fast-growing industrialization made matters worse in Chennai: “For a city built on a floodplain, development has essentially gone unchecked: Critical infrastructure--like the airport, automobile manufacturing plants, and IT centers as well as countless houses--has been built over streams and marshes, and plastic bags clog drainage networks.”

Holthaus also noted the well-established relationship between warming global temperatures and the intensification of short-term rainfall events, which has been observed in many parts of the globe. This effect appears especially strong in the tropics, according to a study published earlier this year in the journal Current Climate Change Reports by Paul O’Gorman (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).


Figure 2. Chennai’s airport was closed for four days last week, with some 4000 people and dozens of aircraft stranded. At one point, all runways were under water. This photo is from Thursday, December 2, 2015. Image credit: Atul Yadav/ Press Trust of India via AP.

El Niño’s contrasting effects on the Indian monsoon
Cyclic, large-scale oceanic and atmospheric features--including El Niño--helped set the stage for the South India disaster. El Niño has a dual effect on monsoonal rains across India, hinging on the two phases of the monsoon itself. By far the biggest player in India’s climate is the summer, or southwest, monsoon, in which moist air sweeps across the nation from southwest to northeast during the late spring and summer. The phenomenon’s alter ego is the winter, or northeast, monsoon, in which northeast winds push back across the nation during autumn and winter. For most of the nation, the northeast monsoon has a drying effect, since the winds are bringing cool, dry air from interior Asia. But as the northeasterlies pass over the Bay of Bengal during autumn, they pick up moisture that is often deposited across far southeast India. Chennai typically receives more than half its moisture this way, with rainfall averaging around 11” in October, 16” in November, and 7” in December. (Chennai’s annual average is around 55”).

El Niño tends to reduce rainfall during the southwest monsoon, as was the case this year, but it also raises the odds of heavy rainfall during the northeast monsoon. The latter effect doesn’t get as much attention, in part because the southwest monsoon is the one that affects the bulk of India. On a global scale, the northeast-monsoon effect in India is small enough that it often gets omitted from maps showing how El Niño affects regional climate. However, it still affects a huge number of people: the population of Tamil Nadu state alone (where the northeast monsoon is the dominant one) is 72 million. Moreover, year-to-year variability is higher for India’s northeast monsoon than it is for the southwest monsoon.

Another player: the Indian Ocean Dipole
Another factor lined up this autumn for a strong northeast monsoon is the Indian Ocean Dipole. During the positive phase of the IOD, warmer-than-average waters extend across the central and western tropical Indian Ocean, with cooler-than-average waters toward the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A 2004 study by R.H. Kripalani and Pankaj Kumar (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) was one of the first to relate the Indian Ocean Dipole to the strength of the northeast monsoon. It found that a positive IOD was associated with heavier northeast monsoonal rains in South India.


Figure 3. State of the Indian Ocean Dipole, 1982 - present. Crosshatches show monthly readings; the red and blue graph is a three-month running average. Image credit: NOAA Ocean Observations Panel for Climate

The IOD is currently in a strongly positive mode (see Figure 3). Based on NOAA data, the three-month running average this autumn has been in the +0.8°C to +1.0°C range, which ranks among the top five positive IOD events in the last 30 years. So between the IOD and El Niño, two major factors have been in place for unusually heavy rains in and near Chennai this autumn. India’s seasonal forecasters were on top of this risk. In its northeast monsoon outlook issued on October 16, the India Meteorological Department gave 88% odds for a wetter-than-normal monsoon over the South India peninsula, with 90% odds for Tamil Nadu, the state where Chennai is located.

In South Florida, a December deluge
South Florida--another place where El Niño tends to boost cool-season rainfall—has slogged through some of its heaviest December rains on record over the last several days. Miami Executive Airport picked up 8.92” in 24 hours, with 10.11” observed at The Hammocks. For the first six days of the month, Miami International Airport received 8.48”. With more than three weeks to go, this total already beats any December in 104 years of official Miami recordkeeping, with just two exceptions: 12.08” in 1905 and 9.03” in 1929. The first six days of December were wetter than any other week in Miami’s weather history during meteorological winter (December through February), as noted by NHC’s Eric Blake. Although the heaviest rains from Thursday through Saturday targeted the Miami area, South Florida as a whole averaged more than 2”, according to the South Florida Water Management District.


Figure 4. Demonstrators participate in a climate march on Sunday, December 6, 2015 in the coastal city of Oostende, Belgium. Image credit: Nicolas Maeterlinck/AFP/Getty Images.

Draft climate agreement hammered out in Paris
The first half of the two-week UN climate summit in Paris ended on a relatively high note, with a draft agreement delivered on time. The agreement is still peppered with hundreds of bracketed words and phrases, indicating fine and not-so-fine points that need to be worked out over the next week.


Figure 5. Mayors from cities around the world convene at the Paris city hall on Friday, December 04, 2015, for an event called Cities for Climate. Roughly a thousand mayors gathered to coordinate their own efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions. The mayors signed an agreement to work toward 100% renewable energy in their cities, or an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases, by 2050. Image credit: Thierry Chesnot/Getty Images.

This week the negotiation process shifts from diplomats to high-level government ministers from each UN member. These ministers will sign off on the final agreement, including not only the stipulated terms but which ones (if any) are considered legally binding. The latter point is heavily influenced by the United States, since the U.S. Congress has already made it clear it will not approve any legally binding agreement. More likely to emerge is some type of requirement for transparency and regular progress reports from each nation, which would employ international peer pressure rather than legal muscle. One climate policy expert interviewed by AP likened this to playing a soccer game without a referee: “Everything happens in the open in the stadium….So if someone fouls another player, even if he doesn't get a red card, he will be booed by the audience.” Another key aspect to be determined is whether the final draft will refer to a goal of keeping global temperature at no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, a far more challenging goal than even the oft-cited 2.0°C goal. As the draft global agreement evolves, a group of 11 legal experts (including two representatives from each UN region, plus one representative from small-island developing states) will be scrutinizing it for legal and linguistic clarity and consistency.

We’ll have more details on the Paris meeting later this week as negotiations proceed. I will be appearing each night this week on the Weather Channel’s Weather Underground program (#WUTV) to discuss the happenings in Paris. These segments will air at 6:40 pm EST on most if not all nights. A UN website includes more background on how this week’s negotiations will unfold. Many of the proceedings can be viewed on TV only within the convention center (and in some cases, not even there). If you’re interested in the step-by-step evolution of the agreement, complete with sometimes snarky context, check out this annotated Google Doc, which was updated frequently last week by a pair of college students from New Zealand who will be on site for the duration.

We’ll have our next post by Wednesday at the latest. WU blogger Steve Gregory has a new post covering the "warm wave" spreading over much of eastern North America over the next week, plus what may follow later in the month.

Bob Henson

El Niño Flood Climate Change Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update.
We may see this meeting of the world come to naught but words and promises hoped to be kept at National levels. Governments hamstrung by politics will do little to affect AGW. We see mayors from around the world, on the other hand, putting together much more reachable goals on AGW. The turnaround will start at the city level, the family level, and the personal level. State and National change will be much slower to come to fruition. This is to be expected. While much cynicism and hand wringing will come from this conference, much good on the lower levels of government and personal responsibility will have been achieved. Now it rests in America's hands, to either lead and bring legislation to show an example of how, or elect a Republican President and show an example of how to stop real change at addressing AGW.
Interesting read, 250 lives and $2 Billion in damages is significant.

I do not understand how warming could be limited to +1.5C. Aren't we already around +1C?
Quoting 1. Tazmanian:

YAWN


Now this is exciting for me:

Yay!
and:

Yay!
Good afternoon

It's been a very drizzly and miserable couple of days here on the island. At the moment I'm working so am on the top of the island. I can't see anything because we're in the clouds. Makes for a very boring couple of views from the web cams:

Link

Other than that, it's 71 and feeling very cool to me. I actually have a hoodie on, with pants, an almost unheard of scenario for me!

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy
The warmer, wetter Global terra-formed by fossil fuel burning Humans flexes it's muscle again.

2015, the Year the Climate struck back



MIAMI EXECUTIVE AIRPORT - NEW RECORD RAINIEST 24 HOURS: The 24-hour period ending at 8 AM on December 6, 2015 is the record all-time rainiest 24-hour period at Miami Executive Airport, with 8.92" / 22.7 cm of rainfall.

EDIT: I posted this before reading the article, which also states this rainfall total.
Elect a republican President?

LOL

you do know their Party stance on AGW I hope?

How that last GOP Guy do on climate?

Quoting 11. Patrap:

Elect a republican President?

LOL

you do know their Party stance on AGW I hope?

How that last GOP Guy do on climate?




Perhaps you misread my last sentence.



Quoting 10. DCSwithunderscores:

MIAMI EXECUTIVE AIRPORT - NEW RECORD RAINIEST 24 HOURS: The 24-hour period ending at 8 AM on December 6, 2015 is the record all-time rainiest 24-hour period at Miami Executive Airport, with 8.92" / 22.7 cm of rainfall.
We're finally seeing the magical two words in the forecast.

"Atmospheric river."

Looking at the image someone shared in the last blog, of CONUS snow to date, looks like there's about 20" or so on the ground roughly in the area that feeds the Truckee-Carson Irrigation District. I'm hoping that's a sign of things to come.

Wish me a good morning - I have to go take temperatures on medium-large pigs this morning, in a pen that had a busted water pipe a few days ago. Probably want to tape myself up in trashbags first.

(No, not OUR pig pen. We're pretty asshatted about doing water right the first time.)
Quoting 11. Patrap:

Elect a republican President?

LOL

you do know their Party stance on AGW I hope?

How that last GOP Guy do on climate?


They are a few outcasts. Which is what we need more of.

http://www.lindseygraham.com/
Indeed #12, seems the Java intake is not quite done here.


Quoting 6. fmbill:

Beijing issues first-ever red alert for smog, forcing schools to close
Ironic it comes from Fox News. Do I sense a shift in the force? :D
Thanks for the new blog entry,Bob.

However, looking at the top picture, I don't understand why people are using umbrellas. It's obviously a cloudy day with light rain falling, and they are walking in flood-water up to their butts. Are they trying to keep their hair dry?
Please remember: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Quoting 17. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Ironic it comes from Fox News. Do I sense a shift in the force? :D


No, your java intake is not done yet. Nice to see, as you posted on, some prominent Republicans have the courage to take a stand for truth in regards to AGW. Bravo to them to stand against the propaganda machine that disgraces a party, that has in the past, stood against the status quo.
Quoting 19. auburn:

Please remember: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.


I would find this offensive, had I not violated it so in the past, I shall not again. Skyepony tells me a personal WU blog is the rout to go. I will respect that this is a blog to discuss climate and the umbrella under that. AGW, terrorism against our only planet, by us.
Quoting 1. Tazmanian:

YAWN

I am blown away by the depth of your insight and how you never fail to back it up with copious amounts of hard data
Quoting 8. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good afternoon

It's been a very drizzly and miserable couple of days here on the island. At the moment I'm working so am on the top of the island. I can't see anything because we're in the clouds. Makes for a very boring couple of views from the web cams:

Link

Other than that, it's 71 and feeling very cool to me. I actually have a hoodie on, with pants, an almost unheard of scenario for me!

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy


Here in DC we're having a typical stretch of our version of "pleasant" in December. Light frost every morning, weak sun during the day heats us up to 13-15C (54-59F) then with sunset quickly down to near freezing. Light winds. This is very good for working outside during the day. It's also fairly common for this time of year though a long long stretch of it isn't. Warm in December would be higs 15-18C and lows above 4C. The occasional really warm december day gets over 20C but clear nights almost always get below 10C. A cloudy night may stay above 15C if the air mass is of subtropical origin.
Quoting 3. DeepSeaRising:

We may see this meeting of the world come to naught but words and promises hoped to be kept at National levels. Governments hamstrung by politics will do little to affect AGW. We see mayors from around the world, on the other hand, putting together much more reachable goals on AGW. The turnaround will start at the city level, the family level, and the personal level. State and National change will be much slower to come to fruition. This is to be expected. While much cynicism and hand wringing will come from this conference, much good on the lower levels of government and personal responsibility will have been achieved. Now it rests in America's hands, to either lead and bring legislation to show an example of how, or elect a Republican President and show an example of how to stop real change at addressing AGW.

Let us remember, it takes one man or woman, then a village, before any nation will ever follow a movement. Now it will take that one Republican to move a party. When that happens and truth is sought, then it will enable others who were on the wrong side, to cross over and open up the tides of change. We are seeing that now. We must demand and fight for that to continue.
Ya know, basing your favorite political party on just AGW is a bit narrow minded. Ever think of dat?
Thanks dok henson!
ExxonMobil Warns of ‘Catastrophic’ 7°F to 12°F Global Warming Without Government Action

by Joe Romm

It’s a Through-The-Looking-Glass world. The Washington Post reports Sunday that ExxonMobil has a far saner view of global warming than the national Republican party.

Fred Hiatt, the paper’s centrist editorial page editor, drops this bombshell:

With no government action, Exxon experts told us during a visit to The Post last week, average temperatures are likely to rise by a catastrophic (my word, not theirs) 5 degrees Celsius, with rises of 6, 7 or even more quite possible.


This is indeed basic climate science.
Quoting 5. wartsttocs:

Interesting read, 250 lives and $2 Billion in damages is significant.

I do not understand how warming could be limited to +1.5C. Aren't we already around +1C?


The 1.5 mark is possible with massive action. I personally think even under 2 is unlikely.
Thanks, Bob.
Quoting 26. 62901IL:
Thanks dok henson!
Did Bob Henson just get a doctorate degree? I thought he had a bachelor's degree in meteorology and a master's degree in Journalism. (He is indeed an excellent writer.)

Or are you referring to "depth of knowledge"?

(The term "dok" is short for "Depth of Knowledge" - is used in education research to refer to the complexity or depth of understanding required to answer or explain an assessment related item.)
Quoting 30. Xulonn:

Did Bob Henson just get a doctorate degree? I thought he had a bachelor's degree in meteorology and a master's degree in Journalism. (He is indeed an excellent writer.)

Or are you referring to "depth of knowledge"?

(The term "dok" is short for "Depth of Knowledge" - is used in education research to refer to the complexity or depth of understanding required to answer or explain an assessment related item.)


Long Story. But the short version: I'm just used to saying it to Dok Masters.
Thank You Mr. Henson for the stats on India; we can add storm water drainage/infrastructure to the wish list of needed future projects for populated regions that may see rainfall increase in the future whether from strong El Ninos or warming issues.........Basically the flip side (fresh water inundation) of the sea level rise/aquifer contamination issue (salt water overflow-intrusion) presented as ongoing challenges for the future for many coastal regions in the world.
Buffalo, November 20,2014



As South Florida was mentioned in the Blog, here are a few comments related to the aquifer and salt water intrusion issues (a good read):

http://www.floridabulldog.org/2015/06/south-flori da-winning-war-against-saltwater-intrusion-but-its -not-cheap/


The barrier between fresh and saltwater — called the saltwater interface — preserves the pristine water in the 3,000-square mile Biscayne Aquifer that supplies potable water to about 5.8 million residents in South Florida and the Florida Keys.


Florida receives an average of 54 inches of rainfall per year, much of which seeps into the ground and refills the aquifers. This year’s rainy season officially began May 10 and is expected to be above normal in May and June, then below normal through the remainder of the season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But those predictions can be trashed by a tropical system hitting South Florida, an agency official noted.


The Floridan Aquifer covers much of the southeast U.S., including Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina, and is one of the most productive aquifers in the world, according to the U.S. Geological Service. In South Florida, however, the aquifer lies 3,000 feet below the surface and is filled with brackish water.

The Biscayne Aquifer sits above the Floridan Aquifer, just below the surface in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Its water is much purer and needs less treatment that water in the Floridan Aquifer.

Barry Heimlich, a retired engineer for the petroleum and pharmacology industries who now devotes time to warning of the impact of saltwater intrusion, is concerned about the Biscayne Aquifer. While he acknowledges that much has been done, more actions could be taken, he said.

“As the sea level rises, saltwater pushes inland like a parabolic curve – the deeper you go the more saltwater there is and it moves inland,” he said. “Some wells have become contaminated and were moved inland and that will probably continue. Even a small amount of sea rise can have a very large effect.”

Quoting 31. 62901IL:


Long Story. But the short version: I'm just used to saying it to Dok Masters.
No problem - just giving you a bad time!

Crazy weather is becoming so normal, that this blog is now slow on what in the past would have been exciting and busy commenting days. Without the Florida people updating us on their local weather - even when it is "normal and mundane," this place would be really dead!
What is up with people on here thinking that everyone who is in some political position and is democrat believes in GW?
This is the mantra that I have been getting these last few days on here.Democrats:Saints and Republicans:horrible human beings.That is not how this works.If people are going to attack political parties do it evenly.I'm out and will avoid further blogging on the main blog until perhaps significant winter weather happens in the area which is going to be far fetched over the next three weeks.
Thanks for the solid new entry, Bob.

And here maybe at least a tiny silver lining?

COP21: Carbon emissions 'to stall or even decline' this year
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News, Paris, 2 hours ago
Global emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to stall and even decline slightly this year, new data suggests.
Researchers say it is the first time this has happened while the global economy has continued to grow.
The fall-off is due to reduced coal use in China, as well as faster uptake of renewables, the scientists involved in the assessment add.
But they expect the stall to be temporary and for emissions to grow again as emerging economies develop.
According to the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change and presented here at COP21 in Paris, emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry are likely to have fallen 0.6% in 2015.
They increased by around the same amount in 2014.
Since 2000, global emissions have grown annually by 2-3%. The slowdown has occurred while the global economy has grown by 3% in both 2014 and 2015.
"We're expecting a stalling in emissions, possibly even a little decrease," said Prof Corinne Le Quere from the University of East Anglia, UK, who led the data analysis.
"The main cause is from decreased coal use in China. It's restructuring its economy, but there is also a contribution from the very fast growth in renewable energy worldwide, and this is the most interesting part: can we actually grow renewable energy enough to offset the coal use elsewhere?" ...

The study has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The scientists involved believe that while the slowdown in emissions is welcome, albeit temporary, it could be a snapshot of the future if a deal can be done here in Paris.
Prof Le Quere told the BBC: "To deal with climate change we need emissions to go to zero - and we are now talking about zero growth and not zero emissions - so we are still a long, long way from that."
"It could begin to look like a peak in emissions after Paris if the agreement is very strong."

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 35. Xulonn:

No problem - just giving you a bad time!

Crazy weather is becoming so normal, that this blog is now slow on what in the past would have been exciting and busy commenting days. Without the Florida people updating us on their local weather - even when it is "normal and mundane," this place would be really dead!


Baroclinic winter storm season and arctic outbreak season should liven it up.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

This is the mantra that I have been getting these last few days on here.Democrats:Saints and Republicans:horrible human beings.That is not how this works.If people are going to attack political parties do it evenly.I'm out and will avoid further blogging on the main blog until perhaps significant winter weather happens in the area which is going to be far fetched over the next three weeks.


I have strongly held political opinions. I keep them out of this blog considering them off topic.
Quoting 34. weathermanwannabe:

As South Florida was mentioned in the Blog, here are a few comments related to the aquifer and salt water intrusion issues...Florida receives an average of 54 inches of rainfall per year, much of which seeps into the ground and refills the aquifers.
I would assume that Florida's limestone (porous rock) aquifers are much less susceptible to permanent collapse (aside from occasional sinkholes) than California's deep former lake-bottom porous sedimentary formation pockets. Those California aquiferswill never be refilled no matter how much it rains. I think that this fact is lost on many people.

Rain can refill the Florida aquifers, but when the California Central Valley deep aquifers are depleted, many of the particles that made up the porous structure can shift to lie closer together, reducing the porosity and eliminating the possibility of significant future water storage - and the surface of ground sinks as a result.

Can anyone here with a hydrology background confirm or correct my information?

As Central Valley aquifers are being depleted, a warmer and more chaotic climate is reducing likelihood of long-lasting snow-packs near the top of the Sierra Nevada mountains, resulting in less spring runoff to refill reservoirs. Future precipitation events are likely to be less frequent, but heavier. I think that California faces a very iffy future with respect to water for agriculture - a huge El Niño enhanced rainy season this year may not do the job in the long run.

According to a Slate article:
California produces a sizable majority of many American fruits, vegetables, and nuts: 99 percent of artichokes, 99 percent of walnuts, 97 percent of kiwis, 97 percent of plums, 95 percent of celery, 95 percent of garlic, 89 percent of cauliflower, 71 percent of spinach, and 69 percent of carrots (and the list goes on and on). Some of this is due to climate and soil. No other state, or even a combination of states, can match California’s output per acre. Lemon yields in California, for example, are more than 50 percent higher than in Arizona. California spinach yield per acre is 60 percent higher than the national average. Without California, supply of all these products in the United States and abroad would dip, and in the first few years, a few might be nearly impossible to find. Orchard-based products in particular, such as nuts and some fruits, would take many years to spring back.
Well El Niño has peaked and is on decline now back to 2.9
Anyone else seeing a messed up script (leaked HTML/Javascript) at the top of this page?
Thanks for the updates Bob. I see they are working(sic) on the blog again. I couldn't Post last night (4:20AM(GMT)) and this morning I noticed that there is a bunch of CODE showing above the Blog, which should not be visible. It just keeps getting better.
I doubt we will ever see any positive effect on the climate by governments/politics. Nor will we see much difference from the few people who choose to change their lifestyles. The change will come (as it always does) by the development of technology. We will not be dependent on oil for much longer. For example, graphene.
Quoting 35. Xulonn:

... Without the Florida people updating us on their local weather - even when it is "normal and mundane," this place would be really dead!

We Europeans do what we can to add some bad weather to this blog, lol. Sometimes even with the help from Florida:

From Kendall, Florida to Kendal, Cumbria: Same weather front brings floods to both sides of Atlantic
BBC weather video, 7 December 2015 Last updated at 13:39
Incredible amounts of rain have been recorded on each side of the Atlantic this weekend. Remarkably, it's from the same weather front. BBC Weather's Alex Deakin has the story.




And this impressive cyclone in the North Atlantic (with currently strong rains for the UK esp. Scotland) is "Uwe" - at least in German weather maps.


Surface map for tomorrow, with "Uwe" over Iceland.



And, of course, current conditions will let the temperatures in Europe stay above normal the next days. And what is happening in Siberia??? A lot of red I spot in the figure above!

Short-lived respite for Chennai before rains return later this week
BBC weather video, 7 December 2015 Last updated at 16:42
Quoting 25. luvtogolf:

Ya know, basing your favorite political party on just AGW is a bit narrow minded. Ever think of dat?


While I could fill up enough blog space bashing the Republican party for their views that support the few at the cost of the vast majority of human beings on Earth, I think doing so on AGW; being the issue of the future of our planet, plenty enough indeed.
Quoting 46. barbamz:


[...] And this impressive cyclone in the North Atlantic (with currently strong rains for the UK esp. Scotland) is "Uwe" - at least in German weather maps.



Surface map for tomorrow, with "Uwe" over Iceland. [...]


Reykjavik: Don't leave the house after 5 pm

The Civil Protection in Iceland has issued a statement warning people in South Iceland to stay put after 12 noon and people in Reykjavik and all other parts of Iceland to stay put after 5 pm this afternoon. The magnitude of the approaching storm is so great that such conditions occur only every 10 to 20 years, reports The Iceland Civil Protection.
Quoting 43. Drakoen:

Anyone else seeing a messed up script (leaked HTML/Javascript) at the top of this page?

yup
In CHROME it is showing,

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/el-n ios-role-in-deadly-chennai-rains-progress-in-paris -climate-t
Quoting 43. Drakoen:

Anyone else seeing a messed up script (leaked HTML/Javascript) at the top of this page?


Yup, I am using Firefox 42 and it is showing. Don't they ever test anything before they set it live...
Quoting 43. Drakoen:

Anyone else seeing a messed up script (leaked HTML/Javascript) at the top of this page?


I am. Here's what it says.

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Quoting 43. Drakoen:

Anyone else seeing a messed up script (leaked HTML/Javascript) at the top of this page?


Yes.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

If people are going to attack political parties do it evenly.


a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.
Quoting 27. ColoradoBob1:

ExxonMobil Warns of ‘Catastrophic’ 7°F to 12°F Global Warming Without Government Action

by Joe Romm

It’s a Through-The-Looking-Glass world. The Washington Post reports Sunday that ExxonMobil has a far saner view of global warming than the national Republican party.

Fred Hiatt, the paper’s centrist editorial page editor, drops this bombshell:

With no government action, Exxon experts told us during a visit to The Post last week, average temperatures are likely to rise by a catastrophic (my word, not theirs) 5 degrees Celsius, with rises of 6, 7 or even more quite possible.


This is indeed basic climate science.

Catastrophic indeed...
OK, the 'leaked script' at the top is gone now. Thanks for fixing it, Admins!
Quoting 48. Xandra:


Reykjavik: Don't leave the house after 5 pm

The Civil Protection in Iceland has issued a statement warning people in South Iceland to stay put after 12 noon and people in Reykjavik and all other parts of Iceland to stay put after 5 pm this afternoon. The magnitude of the approaching storm is so great that such conditions occur only every 10 to 20 years, reports The Iceland Civil Protection.


When reading this forecast, note that "sleet" in Europe is a mixture of rain and snow, not ice pellets
as it is defined in the U.S.
Not me, normal page (Firefox) so far.

Overcast in S C IL, 40 w/ 38 d.p., 30.19", light S-W winds. Still showing 60s for Fri & Sat, though have backed off on Sat high a tad, supposed to get some rain the as well.

Happy Hanukkah & remember those at Pearl Harbor, our whole 2 blocks of downtown along the State Rte have flags up in remembrance.
Quoting 51. PedleyCA:



Yup, I am using Firefox 42 and it is showing. Don't they ever test anything before they set it live...
No. They were very tired from playing video gam...err., doing updates this morning. It was all they could do to make it to Starbucks for a triple latte cappuccino espresso before hitting the rack. They left a note for day shift, but they haven't gotten around to it yet. Maybe swing shift will take care of it.

I wonder how many of them know that IBM is watching this?
Quoting 59. dabirds:

Not me, normal page (Firefox) so far.

Overcast in S C IL, 40 w/ 38 d.p., 30.19", light S-W winds. Still showing 60s for Fri & Sat, though have backed off on Sat high a tad, supposed to get some rain the as well.

Happy Hanukkah & remember those at Pearl Harbor, our whole 2 blocks of downtown along the State Rte have flags up in remembrance.
LOL. It got fixed between my post and your post. Day shift finally found the note. :-)

I was reading some action reports from ships that were at Pearl Harbor 74 years ago today. There was a lot of bravery from a bunch of 19 year old kids that day. I can't even imagine what it was like there on the day that will live in infamy.
Quoting 46. barbamz:


We Europeans do what we can to add some bad weather to this blog, lol. Sometimes even with the help from Florida:

From Kendall, Florida to Kendal, Cumbria: Same weather front brings floods to both sides of Atlantic
BBC weather video, 7 December 2015 Last updated at 13:39
Incredible amounts of rain have been recorded on each side of the Atlantic this weekend. Remarkably, it's from the same weather front. BBC Weather's Alex Deakin has the story.




And this impressive cyclone in the North Atlantic (with currently strong rains for the UK esp. Scotland) is "Uwe" - at least in German weather maps.


Surface map for tomorrow, with "Uwe" over Iceland.



And, of course, current conditions will let the temperatures in Europe stay above normal the next days. And what is happening in Siberia??? A lot of red I spot in the figure above!

Short-lived respite for Chennai before rains return later this week
BBC weather video, 7 December 2015 Last updated at 16:42
If we're going to name every high and low, I wish Europe would agree on one name at a time. It gets really confusing trying to figure which storm is causing which disaster. :-)
UK - NEW NATIONAL RECORD GREATEST 24-HOUR RAINFALL: The record all-time greatest 24-hour rainfall anywhere in the UK of 34.1 cm / 13.4" was set at Honister Pass in Cumbria, England at 6 PM on December 5, 2015.

Link
Quoting 48. Xandra:


Reykjavik: Don't leave the house after 5 pm
<The Civil Protection in Iceland has issued a statement warning people in South Iceland to stay put after 12 noon and people in Reykjavik and all other parts of Iceland to stay put after 5 pm this afternoon. The magnitude of the approaching storm is so great that such conditions occur only every 10 to 20 years, reports The Iceland Civil Protection.

Indeed, exeptional bad weather for Iceland! Good that the awaited refugees from the Middle East haven't arrived yet in Iceland.

Extreme Weather Warning for Iceland
By Zoë Robert Nature & Travel about 20 hours ago. Updated: December 07, 2015 12:45



There is sibling of the storm in Iceland which is hitting Siberia right now. If the Italian synoptical discussion below from yesterday (coudn't find another one, unfortunately) is right, Russia will now get Florida's moisture (which was previously annoying the UK and Scandinavia with flooding) as a blizzard:

Translation with some help from google:
A deep cyclone of 960 hPa is about to launch in Russia and western Siberia, strong winds and abundant snowfalls east of the Urals
At the beginning of next week an intense wave of bad weather with winter features, with widespread snowfall and strong winds, will be ready to hit the Urals region and West Siberian lowlands, where especially on Tuesday will be a real snow storm. Indeed, the extratropical deep depression responsible for strong winds and heavy rains that are hitting Scandinavia and the Baltic, will shift from the Barents Sea towards the Kola Peninsula, slipping by late evening / night of tomorrow on the Northern Ural region, with an extended frontal system of cold character that will open the gates to widespread snowfall. ...
I never had it though sar, after all the yes votes thought I ought to put in a no. Many acts of courage & bravery that day, and countless others for next 4 years.

Quoting 62. RitaEvac:

Nobody is voting for Trump?! He looks to take the Republican side of the stick. Then the Hillary/Trump showdown next year. Who will it be?
It's still about three months until we have the important primaries. How any candidate is doing now in the polls may or may not be reflected in the primaries, and those votes are what you need to get nominated. Where we are now is kind of like all of us sending Max our hurricane guesses. :-)
Quoting 63. sar2401:

If we're going to name every high and low, I wish Europe would agree on one name at a time. It gets really confusing trying to figure which storm is causing which disaster. :-)

I agree wholeheartedly, Sar. As much as I saw the last days, one and the same system got four different names while crossing western and northern Europe, sigh. But the omen of European policy isn't exactly more unity right now.
I design and develop heavy-duty web applications all the time, so I understand completely how easy it is for a website to exhibit strange behavior at times. I also understand completely that it's easy to sit at home and cast anonymous aspersions on the hardworking people behind this awesome site. "Hey, they're young, so they probably play video games! And drink coffee that doesn't come from the 7-11 and taste like paint thinner! Hyuk! Hyuk!" But seeing as how this forum is provided almost entirely for free (less than 3 cents a day for even those who have a paid subscription), I can't help but wish the repeat complainers could see just how much work goes into developing and maintaining a website like this. Maybe if they had a clue, they'd have praise for the developers--or at the very least, they'd try to remember this sage advice before posting.
Well, the one group names high pressure areas, too, so I can't take the names seriously.
Neapolitan dons his white knight outfit once again.
Quoting 68. barbamz:


I agree wholeheartedly, Sar. As much as I saw the last days, one and the same system got four different names while crossing western and northern Europe, sigh. But the omen of European policy isn't exactly more unity right now.


I think the best nomenclature is year (in arabic numbers) and disturbance number (in roman numerals). This makes each unique and confines the fights to what qualifies to be named.


Quoting 69. Neapolitan:

I design and develop heavy-duty web applications all the time, so I understand completely how easy it is for a website to exhibit strange behavior at times. I also understand completely that it's easy to sit at home and cast anonymous aspersions on the hardworking people behind this awesome site. "Hey, they're young, so they probably play video games! And drink coffee that doesn't come from the 7-11 and taste like paint thinner! Hyuk! Hyuk!" But seeing as how this forum is provided almost entirely for free (less than 3 cents a day for even those who have a paid subscription), I can't help but wish the repeat complainers could see just how much work goes into developing and maintaining a website like this. Maybe if they had a clue, they'd have praise for the developers--or at the very least, they'd try to remember this sage advice before posting.


THe other piece that Thumper misses is to count to ten (or these days 1000) before hitting "post". Saves
a lot of regrets.
Quoting 72. georgevandenberghe:
I think the best nomenclature is year (in arabic numbers) and disturbance number (in roman numerals). This makes each unique and confines the fights over what qualifies to be named.
Why have names at all? The systems tend to form over the areas they affect. It is not like they need to be tracked as they approach. The public should just heed the forecasts.
Quoting 66. dabirds:

I never had it though sar, after all the yes votes thought I ought to put in a no. Many acts of courage & bravery that day, and countless others for next 4 years.


You're saying that the entire blog post, including all the way at the top, always looked normal to you? I think you missed the part at the top that was messed up. The HTML error was going to show the native code the same way in any browser. If you think it really did look normal though, hang on to that version of Firefox. It's magic! :-)

I was updating my dad's genealogy with information I got from the son of another crewman who served with my dad on his PT boat in the Pacific. His dad was also a motor machinist mate that would spell my dad for an hour out of every three when they were on patrol. If he didn't come up on deck every three hours or so, he'd pass out from heat exhaustion. The temperatures in the engine room, sitting on top of three Packard aircraft engines, would reach 140 degrees. They'd know he'd passed out again when he was no longer answering the engine telegraph, and had to send a couple of guys down to drag him up through the hatch and revive him. My dad told me it was no big deal though. He felt lucky to have a PT tender that would give them ice cream every month. They got five gallons and, between the 14 crew members, it would be gone in about 20 minutes. He didn't even remember what flavors they got, only that it was cold.

It was a different world in 1943.
Quoting 71. bappit:

Neapolitan dons his white knight outfit once again.
Thanks. Better a white knight than one of the forum's tiresome Constant Complainers. Know what I mean? ;-)
Quoting 73. georgevandenberghe:



THe other piece that Thumper misses is to count to ten (or these days 1000) before hitting "post". Saves
a lot of regrets.
Agreed. In fact, I wait even longer: I edit my comments in a text app, then delay several minutes before re-reading them, pasting them in the Comment box, and clicking 'Submit'.
Quoting 34. weathermanwannabe:

As South Florida was mentioned in the Blog, here are a few comments related to the aquifer and salt water intrusion issues (a good read):



South Florida winning war against saltwater intrusion, but it’s not cheap.

That is a good read. I would like to read the current events on this in 2100.
Quoting 77. Neapolitan:
Thanks. Better a white knight than one of the forum's tiresome Constant Complainers. KNowwhat I mean? ;-)
Compared to most of the complainers on here, I am a saint. In fact, you have probably engaged in far more arguments than myself with the snarky comments like the one quoted.

Edit: Oh, I forgot ... ;-O
Quoting 73. georgevandenberghe:



THe other piece that Thumper misses is to count to ten (or these days 1000) before hitting "post". Saves
a lot of regrets.
I was responsible for testing and acceptance for one of the largest customer web sites in the country. I'm well aware of what developers would tell me about why their error rate was so high. I didn't care then, and I don't care now. The job was to deliver a product where the customer focused on content, not what was behind it. This web site consistently fails in that goal.
Quoting 72. georgevandenberghe:



I think the best nomenclature is year (in arabic numbers) and disturbance number (in roman numerals). This makes each unique and confines the fights to what qualifies to be named.



I'll buy the first part, but I think simple alphabetic nomenclature (2015-A) makes more sense. I don't think they teach Roman numerals in school now.
Quoting 68. barbamz:


I agree wholeheartedly, Sar. As much as I saw the last days, one and the same system got four different names while crossing western and northern Europe, sigh. But the omen of European policy isn't exactly more unity right now.
This is one idea where central planning has some merit. :-) If the EU can't agree on something so relatively simple as what they name a storm that affects many parts of the EU, agreement on bigger issues certainly doesn't look too hopeful.
Quoting 82. sar2401:
This is one idea where central planning has some merit. :-) If the EU can't agree on something so relatively simple as what they name a storm that affects many parts of the EU, agreement on bigger issues certainly doesn't look too hopeful.
This is one issue where agreement is probably a low priority.
Quoting 81. sar2401:

I'll buy the first part, but I think simple alphabetic nomenclature (2015-A) makes more sense. I don't think they teach Roman numerals in school now.


MMXV-A

I am "old school". I grew tired of doing long division in Roman Numerals and we had to show our work. :(
Quoting 84. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
MMXV-A

I am "old school". I grew tired of doing long division in Roman Numerals and we had to show our work. :(
I'd use a GUID.
Very commonly during moderate to strong El Nino here in the Ohio Valley we see abnormally dry conditions north of the Ohio River and East of The Mississippi with a sharp contrast in above average precipitation anomalies points south and east. This year that cut off line has been much further north. Had over 5" of rain in November, and looking to be keeping on that pace for December.

Quoting 81. sar2401:

I'll buy the first part, but I think simple alphabetic nomenclature (2015-A) makes more sense. I don't think they teach Roman numerals in school now.


There are generally more significant storms in a season than arabic letters which is why I suggested roman numerals. This will be even more true if the entire hemisphere agrees on single names for all qualifying hemispheric events.

Quoting 85. bappit:

I'd use a GUID.


That is new technology. I predate the abacus. They used my wooden marbles to make the first one.
Quoting 88. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
That is new technology. I predate the abacus. They used my wooden marbles to make the first one.
Have you ever seen kids trained intensively on abacuses? They can use virtual abaci to do calculations, moving invisible beads on invisible rods to get correct answers verrrrrry quickly. It's all muscle memory.
Quoting 7. wartsttocs:



Now this is exciting for me:

Yay!
and:

Yay!
This may be a little too exciting for me. If the Gulf moisture returns as depicted by the GFS, and the Plains low pressure system follows a more zonal path instead of shooting up north, as depicted by the ECMWF, there could be trouble ahead for the South. There hasn't been a real severe weather threat down here for almost a year. The models still have a fair bit of disagreement, but the general setup is one that leads to severe weather outbreaks down here. It's 75 here right now, but with low humidity and nothing forcing any kind of weather except clear skies. We'll see what happens by Sunday.
Quoting 79. bappit:

Compared to most of the complainers on here, I am a saint. In fact, you have probably engaged in far more arguments than myself with the snarky comments like the one quoted.

Edit: Oh, I forgot ... ;-O
Well, some people complain about things like politicians, fossil fuel CEOs, and a complicit media watching on as civilization is flushed down the toilet for purposes of profit and ideology. I do that, and generally leave it to others to kvetch about relatively petty things such as the odd snippet of errant code on a free website, or how the colors in a weather map aren't to their liking, or the fact that someone uses a well-known emoticon in a comment. But I'm glad we can all come together here, the productive and not-so-productive alike, to discuss things of import. Aren't you? ;-)
Quoting 87. georgevandenberghe:



There are generally more significant storms in a season than arabic letters which is why I suggested roman numerals. This will be even more true if the entire hemisphere agrees on single names for all qualifying hemispheric events.


When we get past Z, we start over at AA. It has to be better than LXXXIX.
The horror. ;-O
Quoting 76. StormTrackerScott:



Trump is dominating on the Republican side and this is important as the primaries are just 6 weeks away. Now Trump vrs Hillary well unfortunately I think Obama has all but ruined it for Hillary. Trump on AGW may not look good on the other hand.

Trump's position on AGW is the least concerning facet of his run for presidency.
Here is the current WPC forecast for Conus; notice that we are still presently missing the typical El Nino lower trajectory Gulf lows (that normally manifest into Nor Easter's); that will come on a more frequent basis once we get into the heart of winter into January and February.

This might sound rather simple minded but Enso cycles aside, we have seen a lot of recent years in parts of the US where we "skip" a long Fall or Spring and jump right from Summer to Winter or Winter to Summer. At this point, I just personally divide into Winter and Summer, in a six month cycle, with August being the hottest month for Conus and then February being the coldest. Then I marvel at the occasional exceptions due to a polar jet kink somewhere or prolonged high pressure bubble over Conus...........................

Quoting 94. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Trump's position on AGW is the least concerning facet of his run for presidency.
Is it Trump or the people supporting him in the polls?
So, does anyone think the transient drop in CO2 levels is relevant?
Quoting 9. Patrap:

The warmer, wetter Global terra-formed by fossil fuel burning Humans flexes it's muscle again.

2015, the Year the Climate struck back





So, different graphic for 2016?
Quoting 97. VAstorms:
So, does anyone think the transient drop in CO2 levels is relevant?
Irrelevant. Next question.
Quoting 99. bappit:

Irrelevant. Next question.

I don't erther but CNN is touting it like it's a big deal. Guess someone wants to put a positive spin on disaster.
Economic downturns diminish dastardly CO2 levels. (Hard to alliterate d's with CO2 in the phrase)

But we'd all be better off working together to diminish CO2 levels without taking this Procrustean approach.
Quoting 92. sar2401:

When we get past Z, we start over at AA.

Alcoholics Anonymous? ;-) Sounds like a good slogan.

BTW, live webcam from Reykjavik is shaking like crazy due to their current storm.

Map of current winds meters per second.
Quoting 102. barbamz:


Alcoholics Anonymous? ;-) Sounds like a good slogan.

BTW, live webcam from Reykjavik is shaking like crazy due to their current storm.

Map of current winds meters per second.



it worked for me...26 years Saturday.
Quoting 81. sar2401:
I'll buy the first part, but I think simple alphabetic nomenclature (2015-A) makes more sense. I don't think they teach Roman numerals in school now.
Back when I was in school, we had to do long division with Roman numerals - now that was a challenge.

/bs
Quoting 98. VAstorms:

So, different graphic for 2016?
He could use a cute cartoon hydra to keep Washi happy...
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”


― Isaac Asimov
Quoting 102. barbamz:
live webcam from Reykjavik is shaking like crazy due to their current storm.
Nullschool surface wind map at the time of this post...the south of Iceland does appear to be getting hammered!
"Ask not, what your Planet can do for you, but what you can do for your Planet"

Werd'
Quoting 98. VAstorms:


So, different graphic for 2016?
I think next year's graphic should be an
angry old woman chasing us around with a cast-iron skillet-
Quoting 109. aquak9:

I think next year's graphic should be an
angry old woman chasing us around with a cast-iron skillet-


I have that image as it was taken inside our FEMA trailer one night as I was out kinda, er,..late.

: )

Xmas 2005, New Orleans in Kenner.

Some pics of the flooding in Norway yesterday (Sunday).


Historic flooding in Norway
07.12.2015: Storm Synne causes the worst flooding along the Western Coast of Norway in some 200 years, according to the national water and energy directorate.

British insurers rethink models after repeat of 100-year floods
Source: Reuters - Mon, 7 Dec 2015 15:34 GMT
* Claims could be up to 250 million pounds
* More than 5,000 properties affected
* Floods in northwest could rewrite record book ...


Good night everyone from Germany.
Quoting 110. Patrap:



I have that image as it was taken inside our FEMA trailer one night as I was out kinda, er,..late.

: )

Xmas 2005, New Orleans in Kenner.


Been there, slept there, ate a coupla beignets -
The World and all of us were much younger then,..in December 2005.


We have a lot to be thankful for here, and the best part of it all has been the sharing.

All else is either Lagniappe or Fool's gold.

People matter....and Love endures.



Quoting 105. Xulonn:

He could use a cute cartoon hydra to keep Washi happy...
my comment
maybe not




Quoting 109. aquak9:

I think next year's graphic should be an
angry old woman chasing us around with a cast-iron skillet-
Or a shiny broom -- "sweeps clean!"

Last thing: Best wishes to Iceland! Source for updates.

Severe Weather Europe, 11 Minuten
A number of anemometers over Iceland have stopped reporting data in the onslaught of hurricane force winds with this system (now at 945 mbar central MSLP): Hvammur reported 61 m/s (220 km/h) gust before going silent! We thank Danny Hogsholt for reporting.
Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

News from Iceland in English
I took this picture about two hours ago at 37,000 ft. flying over the Mississippi River Delta in the GOM. Weather was beautiful for my Texas trip.


Quoting 96. bappit:

Is it Trump or the people supporting him in the polls?

Why not both.
Quoting 101. bappit:
Economic downturns diminish dastardly CO2 levels. (Hard to alliterate d's with CO2 in the phrase)
But we'd all be better off working together to diminish CO2 levels without taking this Procrustean approach.

Crisis crushes CO2 concentration. If only.
Quoting 117. Sfloridacat5:

I took this picture about two hours ago at 37,000 ft. flying over the Mississippi River Delta in the GOM. Weather was beautiful for my Texas trip.

Beautiful birdfoot bays!
Quoting 96. bappit:

Is it Trump or the people supporting him in the polls?
You mean the 400 and some odd people in the University of Quinnipiac Polls? Polls are just that a very small sample size of the public. I'll play the devils advocate and say that news outlets put these polls out there to hype up the candidates and cause a commotion among the public. By the way I remember the exit polls during the 2004 Presidential Election having Senator Kerry wayyy ahead of Bush, well I think we know how that one played out.

Now on a more weather related topic:



Flooding forces Zoo Miami to close; no reopening date set

MIAMI (AP) --
Zoo Miami has closed because of flooding caused by days of heavy rain in South Florida.

The zoo closed at 11 a.m. Saturday. With more rain in the forecast, communication director Ron Magill says a decision about reopening hasn't been made.

Magill tells the Miami Herald that many pathways and walkways are underwater, making it unsafe for visitors and guests. He says the rain is so high in some areas that fish from a nearby lake are swimming under benches and trees.

Meteorologist David Ross of the National Weather Service says the area should dry out as the week goes on.

Miami Executive Airport, which is near the zoo, has logged more than 13 inches of rain in December.

It looks like climate change is claiming another victim, don't worry Miami, Tampa Bay saw a similar thing happen to them back in July and August of this year. It seems as though climate change is picking its poison. Flooding in some regions of the world, some deadly too, and droughts in other regions of the world.

I feel sorry for the people who deny this is happening because of climate change. WAKE UP!
Quoting 109. aquak9:

I think next year's graphic should be an
angry old woman chasing us around with a cast-iron skillet-
LOL
Quoting 113. Patrap:

The World and all of us were much younger then,..in December 2005.


We have a lot to be thankful for here, and the best part of it all has been the sharing.

All else is either Lagniappe or Fool's gold.

People matter....and Love endures.






Kenner was one of the towns I patrolled as a police officer from Indiana, several locals from Kenner, didn't like the police let alone from Indiana, it was an experience. Time spend August 31, September 17th 2005 protecting life and property in your neck of the woods, Sheriff Harry Lee was very good to us!
Quoting 98. VAstorms:


So, different graphic for 2016?


I still like termites eating the foundations of the biosphere. things look kind of okay until the big collapse.
Quoting 118. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why not both.
Trump is nothing without support. So, I discount the single individual.

I classify him as an opportunist.
Quoting 125. georgevandenberghe:



I still like termites eating the foundations of the biosphere. things look kind of okay until the big collapse.
That's perfect, since termites are a great natural source of methane and CO2!
Quoting 117. Sfloridacat5:

I took this picture about two hours ago at 37,000 ft. flying over the Mississippi River Delta in the GOM. Weather was beautiful for my Texas trip.





Thats a great image for sure..as it was a Beautiful Sunset here along the Lake tonight.

Tiger pass, Main Pass is very familiar to us who have been out them into the GOM working or recreating.

Quoting 129. CaneFreeCR:

That's perfect, since termites are a great natural source of methane and CO2!


LSU Engineering Professor Studies Wetlands and Storm Surge to Reduce Flood Risk
NOVEMBER 28, 2012 BY ASATAKE LEAVE A COMMENT
by Elise Bernard


When a hurricane is headed toward the Louisiana coast, officials evaluate a variety of factors when determining the need for evacuation. One of the most pressing concerns is an area’s susceptibility to storm surge. LSU coastal engineering professor Q. Jim Chen, assisted by his graduate students, Kyle Parker, Ranjit Jadhav, Ke Liu and Ling Zhu, and postdoctoral researchers, Arash Karimpour and Kelin Hu, measures and models waves and storm surges of hurricanes to help emergency managers and Louisiana residents in preparing and responding to hurricanes making landfall on the Louisiana coast.

On Aug. 27, just one day before Hurricane Isaac made landfall, Chen, Parker, Jadhav and Karimpour installed an array of 12 wave and surge sensors along the east bank of Mississippi River and the perimeter of the Breton Sound Estuary in southeast Louisiana.

Their experiment was designed to measure the waves and storm surge on wetlands and nearby coastal infrastructure, such as levees and roadways. The rapidly-installed mobile wave and surge monitoring system consisted of seven wave gages and five surge gages.


“We have utilized high-performance computing technology available at LSU to obtain a timely forecast of coastal flooding and used the model forecast to guide our field measurements,” Chen said.
In collaboration with T. Baker Smith LLC, a Louisiana engineering firm, Chen’s group conducted a topographic survey near the sensors using the GPS network developed by the LSU Center for Geoinformatics, or C4G.

Funded by a completed federal grant, Chen’s group has developed the capability of rapidly installing wave and surge sensors on marshlands. Hurricane Isaac was the third distribution of wave and surge gauges prior to an incoming storm by Chen’s group, who had previously studied Tropical Storm Ida in 2009 and Tropical Storm Lee in 2011.

Although researchers have recognized the value of wetlands in reducing the impact of hurricanes, no systematic field observations of waves, surges and vegetation exists to determine the extent of flood risk reduction. Datasets, such as those collected by Chen, aid coastal engineers and scientists in developing and testing accurate computer models for predicting storm surge and wind waves over coastal wetlands.

In addition to field observations of waves and storm surge, Chen’s group also participated in forecasting storm surges and hurricane waves using the Advanced Surge Guidance System, or ASGS. Supported by the National Science Foundation and Louisiana Board of Regents, ASGS is a multi-state coastal modeling research and development effort providing
advisory services related to approaching hurricane events.

The ASGS group successfully forecasted and displayed storm surge information for Hurricane Isaac for eight days, and a variety of users from federal, state and local agencies accessed the website and obtained information to make key decisions prior to the storm.

Responding to Louisiana’s demand for highly educated and skilled engineers like Chen to work on coastal and wetland problems, the LSU Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering launched a new Master of Science degree program in coastal and ecological engineering. The program was developed in response to the continuous threat of coastal flooding, erosion of Louisiana’s barrier islands and loss of coastal wetlands along Louisiana’s unique estuaries and shorelines resulting from hurricanes like those Chen studies.

“Future research is needed to integrate the storm surge forecast system with various disaster management tools to save lives and protect properties from future hurricane impacts,” Chen said.

LSU Earth Scan Lab

The Earth Scan Lab receives atmospheric and infrared imagery of the Atlantic basin every thirty minutes from NOAA's GOES satellite. We generate a number of real-time atmospheric products consisting of different regions of interest to Louisiana, such as the Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Tropics.

GOES data is also used to produce night-time composite SST maps. Imagery for the Gulf of Mexico, Eastern Pacific, and tropical basin are available through our image archives.
Quoting 98. VAstorms:


So, different graphic for 2016?




With apologies to Patrap and Velinov.
134. beell
Quoting 120. BaltimoreBrian:


Beautiful birdfoot bays!


It is a lovely picture! Look while you can. Channelized by levees that allowed a wealth of human development and industry, the Mighty Mississippi River Basin/Wetlands are starved for sediment and are rapidly subsiding beneath the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Throw in some sea level rise also.
lacoast.gov




Quoting 124. trunkmonkey:



Kenner was one of the towns I patrolled as a police officer from Indiana, several locals from Kenner, didn't like the police let alone from Indiana, it was an experience. Time spend August 31, September 17th 2005 protecting life and property in your neck of the woods, Sheriff Harry Lee was very good to us!

Is that the sheriff who prevented people from walking across the bridge from New Orleans into Kenner?
Quoting 135. ACSeattle:

Is that the sheriff who prevented people from walking across the bridge from New Orleans into Kenner?
Yes. Harry Lee's forces also confiscated (stole) food and water from Katrina evacuees on the bridge.
Det kommer mer regn.

Quoting 135. ACSeattle:


Is that the sheriff who prevented people from walking across the bridge from New Orleans into Kenner?


Harry Lee, wiki

And Harry Lee, the Sheriff here, who passed a few years post Storm, He got the Lowes opened on Veterans Blvd that we were escorted in to get whatever we needed to help in the water from there. We rolled out with 13 wheelbarrows with Jenny's, Ropes, pick axes, etc. It was that kind of urgent cooperation between Law, civilians, veterans, volunteers to get into the water and make a difference.



The Cajun Navy did much and we will always be grateful for those who came and served their fellow Americans,when we needed it most.



140. MahFL
When Mayor Nagan said take axes and saws into your attics I thought he was being a bit over dramatic, turns out he knew what he was talking about.
Quoting 124. trunkmonkey:



Kenner was one of the towns I patrolled as a police officer from Indiana, several locals from Kenner, didn't like the police let alone from Indiana, it was an experience. Time spend August 31, September 17th 2005 protecting life and property in your neck of the woods, Sheriff Harry Lee was very good to us!

Since Mr Lee was the sheriff, it hardly comes as a surprise that there were those who didn't like the police. Mr Lee's actions on that bridge were reported around the country and around the world. Until then, no one would have thought such a thing possible in this country. He damaged this country here and abroad. He was not good
Your word have effect, but you are preaching to the choir. Why not expose your beliefs to the rest of the world? Not all think your statements are correct. perhaps. There are venues to really state what you mean if you are sincere. Then the discussions can begin.. stating your age worn rhetoric to a opposing view may not be as easy with a opposing view.
A few more SST datasets have updated within the last day or so & we're continuing to set records in the Oceanic Nino Index. For the 2nd month in a row, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 recorded a new record tri-monthly ONI value & last month (@ 2.33C) was the 6th highest for any tri-monthly period in the 146 year ONI record of this dataset (99.7 percentile. With regards to the entire record, we're running 3 standard deviations above normal, for SON alone, still about 2.7 sigma.)

Kaplan Extended SSTv2 Top 20 El Ninos (SON)


In all likelihood, I'm likely going to be forced to adjust the scaling of the time series next month. This is ridiculous...



COBE SST has shot through the roof, the ONI officially cracking 2.5C. We've likely haven't hit the peak of this NINO yet either in the tri-monthly data, yikes...


OTH, in the monthly data, ERSSTv4 is likely still low-balling this El Nino. The anomaly for November is over .3C below what's being reported by it's predecessor (ERSSTv3b) & the raw NINO 3.4 temperature is about .25C of degree below what I've seen from any other dataset. I suspect that the high frequency filter is leading to spurious initial SST estimates in ERSST, the last few months have observed dramatic upticks in raw & anomalies in the following month & I have little doubt that we'll see another major upward adjustment of November's ONI value next month.

COBE SST : Raw: 29.58C, Anom: 2.895C
OISSTv2 (1 degree): Raw: 29.61C, Anom: 2.828C
CDAS 1: Raw: 29.51C, Anom: 2.796C
NCEP R1: Raw: 29.55C, Anom: 2.762C
ERSSTv3b: Raw: 29.42C, Anom: 2.680C
Kaplan v2: Raw: 29.37C, Anom: 2.622C (even though this dataset is presented as anomalies wrt the 1951-1980 base period, the anomaly data were converted to raw values from GOSTA atlas 7)
IOCADSv2.5 Raw: 29.40C, Anom: 2.510C
ERSSTv4: Raw: 29.12C, Anom: 2.344C
But sometimes, no matter the desire to express what's right, stupidity reigns. Or rains. And leaves us staring up at the raindrops, like Broad-Breasted Whites (domesticated turkey breed), drowning in disbelief.

Quoting 25. luvtogolf:

Ya know, basing your favorite political party on just AGW is a bit narrow minded. Ever think of dat?

I've voted for people from both major parties in the past but one thing I will not do at the present time is vote for someone who doesn't accept the scientific reality of anthropogenic global warming and the need to do something about it. Unfortunately right now one of the parties has a near monopoly on not accepting scientific reality.
From barbamz's link -

British insurers rethink models after repeat of 100-year floods

Five of the six wettest years on record have happened since 2000, according to the Association of British Insurers, which said flooding in the Carlisle area cost insurers 272 million pounds in 2005.

Link
Quoting 137. Grothar:

Det kommer mer regn.



"There will be more rain!"
It seems like not so long ago that there was some extreme drought conditions in Southern Florida.
15 Feet of Snow Could Fall Near Mount Rainier's Peak Early This Week

The Sunday night National Weather Service (NWS) forecast near the summit of Mount Rainier predicted that up to 190 inches (15.8 feet) of snow would fall at an elevation of 12,762 feet from Sunday night through Wednesday night. The low end of the forecast range from the NWS was still an impressive 152 inches (12.6 feet). For reference, Mount Rainier's peak elevation rises to 14,410 feet.

Link

13 inches in 24 hours: Flooding storm ‘Desmond’ shatters U.K. rainfall records

Storm Desmond wrung out this moisture over Ireland, northern England and Scotland. An incredible 13.44 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Honister Pass in the Lake District. The total sets a new record for 24-hour rainfall at the location, says the U.K. Met Office. The previous record for 24-hour rainfall was 12.45 inches at Seathwaite, Cumbria, in November of 2009.

15.94 inches of rain fell at Thirlmere — also in the Lake District — in just 48 hours, which also set a new record for the 48-hour period. The previous 48-hour rainfall record was 15.57 inches, which was also set at Seathwaite in November 2009.


Link
Good morning all, from rainy Nassau, Bahamas.

It's unusual to get rain to such an extent here in December, but the rain began yesterday, and with only a few brief pauses, has continued until this morning. Looking at the radar / satellite views here using the Wundermap, and as seen below via NASA's zoomable viewer, it seems likely the rain will continue, and possibly increase in volume, throughout the day.



It seems the mass is headed generally E to NE, so there's a long rain period ahead .... at least it's also likely to keep the temps down.

I'm headed out to work now in the hope that I will avoid the worst of the driving crazies of Nassau. Ya'll have a great day.
Good morning. Wow, new record with -9C (16F) in Damascus on early Sunday (poor displaced people without good shelter down there!); previous record was -6C:
Damascus experiences its coldest December night on record
BBC weather video, 8 December 2015 Last updated at 10:38
The thermometer plunges well below freezing across Syria and snow falls in Iraq and Iran.
Alex Deakin explains what's causing the extremes and has the forecast for the coming days.


Windstorm in Iceland:

Iceland sees double hurricane force winds
Iceland Monitor | Tue 8 Dec 2015 | 10.46 GMT
The strongest wind measurement gathered during the severe weather system that hit Iceland last night was twice as strong as the criterion for hurricane-force winds.
The East Iceland weather station of Hallormsstaðaháls picked up a wind-speed reading of 72.6 m/s (over 160 mph). According the Beaufort scale, wind speeds are described as ‘hurricane force’, when they hit just 32.7 m/s.
Severe winds even broke some of the anemometers used across the country, meaning that some wind-speed data are missing. ...


Entire house blows away in West Fjords
Iceland Monitor | Tue 8 Dec 2015 | 11.47 GMT

In the Wake of the Storm
Iceland Review, By Vala Hafstad Nature & Travel about an hour ago
There are no reports of severe injuries to people as a result of yesterday’s storm, but property damage is significant. The Department of Civil Protection in Iceland thanks the public for heeding warnings, which, it says, no doubt saved people from injuries. Informing travelers of the impending storm was also successfully done. Rescue teams have been called out about 360 times since yesterday.
Rescue workers are still busy in the West Fjords and Skagafjörður, mbl.is reports, where attempts are being made at preventing a roof from blowing off a farm. Jónas Guðmundsson, ICE-SAR representative, states that about 700 rescue workers have taken part in rescue operations since yesterday afternoon. Winds in the West Fjords are still blowing at the speed of 22-28 meters per second. Rescue teams are expected to stay at work there and in North Iceland until noon. ...


Temperature anomalies (surface) for tomorrow with ongoing cold weather in the Middle East. Source.


I'm taking this with a HUGE grain of salt but it would be awesome to have a white Christmas.Anyway I just wanted to post this for us winter weather lovers in the mid-atlantic.At least it shows the pattern turning colder by the week of christmas if anything.Out now.
Good Morning; the Conus forecast and the Bahamas Blob:



And the Aussie Met Office El Nino discussion:


Issued on 8 December 2015 

The strong 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. While sea surface temperatures remain close to record-high values, some El Niño indicators are now showing signs of easing. However, the current El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.

El Niño indicators, notably sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific, and cloudiness near the Date Line, remain well above El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has eased back into neutral values, though this may be short-lived: the SOI tends to be more variable during the northern Australian wet season (October–April). Model outlooks and the strength of the current event suggest El Niño thresholds may continue to be exceeded well into the southern hemisphere autumn.

The 2015–16 El Niño is strong, and likely to rank in the top three events of the past 50 years. Presently, several key indicators fall short of their 1997–98 and 1982–83 values, both in the ocean (e.g. sub-surface temperatures, which have peaked around +8 °C this year, compared to +12 °C in 1997–98), and atmosphere (e.g. SOI, for which monthly values peaked around −20, while 1982–83 had several months at −30).

The North Atlantic jet per GFS (contributing to the winds noted below for Iceland and parts):




Lol...
Christmas Eve could be interesting in the southeast this year.
Quoting 121. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You mean the 400 and some odd people in the University of Quinnipiac Polls? Polls are just that a very small sample size of the public. I'll play the devils advocate and say that news outlets put these polls out there to hype up the candidates and cause a commotion among the public. By the way I remember the exit polls during the 2004 Presidential Election having Senator Kerry wayyy ahead of Bush, well I think we know how that one played out.

Now on a more weather related topic:



Flooding forces Zoo Miami to close; no reopening date set

MIAMI (AP) --
Zoo Miami has closed because of flooding caused by days of heavy rain in South Florida.

The zoo closed at 11 a.m. Saturday. With more rain in the forecast, communication director Ron Magill says a decision about reopening hasn't been made.

Magill tells the Miami Herald that many pathways and walkways are underwater, making it unsafe for visitors and guests. He says the rain is so high in some areas that fish from a nearby lake are swimming under benches and trees.

Meteorologist David Ross of the National Weather Service says the area should dry out as the week goes on.

Miami Executive Airport, which is near the zoo, has logged more than 13 inches of rain in December.

It looks like climate change is claiming another victim, don't worry Miami, Tampa Bay saw a similar thing happen to them back in July and August of this year. It seems as though climate change is picking its poison. Flooding in some regions of the world, some deadly too, and droughts in other regions of the world.

I feel sorry for the people who deny this is happening because of climate change. WAKE UP!
What's there to wake up to, of course the climate is changing, it always does.
Quoting 163. NativeSun:

What's there to wake up to, of course the climate is changing, it always does.


"The weather will continue to change on and off for a long, long time." ~ Hippy Dippy Weatherman
Quoting 163. NativeSun:

What's there to wake up to, of course the climate is changing, it always does.


It's the cause that matters. Sticking your head in the sand won't do anything, the world still happens when you can't see it.
What Japan's Venus probe could tell us about Earth?

Much like Earth's greenhouse gas effect, Venus' atmosphere traps heat to warm the surface of the planet. But something about Venus' atmosphere makes the effect much more extreme. Temperatures on the second planet can reach 870 degrees Fahrenheit, which is hot enough to melt lead.

The NASA explains just how inhospitable Venus is: "The planet's 96% carbon dioxide atmosphere is thick and steamy with a corrosive mist of sulfuric acid floating through it. The terrain is forbidding, strewn with craters and volcanic calderas – and bone dry."


Link
Quoting 157. washingtonian115:



I'm taking this with a HUGE grain of salt but it would be awesome to have a white Christmas.Anyway I just wanted to post this for us winter weather lovers in the mid-atlantic.At least it shows the pattern turning colder by the week of christmas if anything.Out now.


What the 6z giveth, the 12z will taketh it away.
Exxon Mobil backs carbon tax

Exxon Mobil several years ago threw its support behind a revenue-neutral carbon tax, which it says is the most transparent and the easiest way to add carbon costs. A revenue-neutral carbon tax would pump government proceeds back into the economy. Other ways, Exxon Mobil believes, are inefficient. For example, it says, Telsa vehicles cost plenty of electricity from the grid to assemble but don't contribute much to emissions reductions because of their range limitations.

Link
Quoting 171. ColoradoBob1:

Exxon Mobil backs carbon tax

Exxon Mobil several years ago threw its support behind a revenue-neutral carbon tax, which it says is the most transparent and the easiest way to add carbon costs. A revenue-neutral carbon tax would pump government proceeds back into the economy. Other ways, Exxon Mobil believes, are inefficient. For example, it says, Telsa vehicles cost plenty of electricity from the grid to assemble but don't contribute much to emissions reductions because of their range limitations.

Link
Boy, is that ever a non-sequitur! Gas-guzzlers aren't built using electricity from the grid? And how does limited range fail to contribute much to emissions reductions? Limited-range cars are perfect for commutes of under 30 miles, more than 75% of all trips by car. If used that way and they have zero emissions, how is that no contribution to reductions? Exxon-Mobil and the Chronicle are obviously pro-petroleum -- what else would you expect from them?
In December of 1997, Tampa got over 17" of rain. So far this month we're basically dry with nothing on the horizon as we get into mid December.

Some climate change impacts may appear sooner than expected

Only immediate and aggressive efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change can head off these accelerating near-term impacts, argues a commentary paper published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience. As more impacts occur, the incentives for addressing the causes of climate change will themselves change, the paper's authors warn.

"Our argument is that if you want to do something, you'd better do something now because over time, you are going to lose the ability to have an impact," said Juan Moreno-Cruz, an assistant professor in Georgia Tech's School of Economics and one of the paper's five co-authors. "If we delay action on climate change, the likelihood of doing something will be reduced because the damages will be accelerating. The incentives to address it are going to disappear as more damage occurs."


Read more at: Link
Quoting 164. fmbill:



"The weather will continue to change on and off for a long, long time." ~ Hippy Dippy Weatherman
We may be in trouble if the weather is ever 'off'!
Greenland's dark snow - in pictures

‘For most of us, science is an abstract subject but aerial photography is a powerful tool to translate what environmental science is telling us. It brings a different perspective to environmental problems. You can be very clear or very abstract to make images that are inspiring and beautiful, images don’t have to be read straight ahead. It’s sort of like teasing the viewer ... to find clues in the image,’ says

Photographs by Daniel Beltrá/ Courtesy of Catherine Edelman Gallery

Interview and editing by Eric Hilaire

Tuesday 8 December 2015 08.57 EST
Lol...
discussion of the never ending heat wave...
here are some MAJOR GFS problems

~South surface winds,north side of surface lows
~Sun doesn't set over the Southern Plains
~severe slowing in fwd progress of the jet stream after 96hours.
~slowing of fwd motion causes major distortions in energy
In other "unrelated" news the word "Grand" was burned through the clouds over Western Utah Sunday afternoon...
so the atmosphere is learning how to spell clouds in English now from Global Warming and these politicans need to take my rights away to fight it?
Or is the largest weather modification project by the US Military causing the GW?
We found out earlier this year the '01 contrail study was total garbage contrails increase surface warming and upper tropospheric warming much greater than "we ever thought"
If your placing contrails in specific locations along a jet stream weather modification is quite easy with todays models. If you were in a weather war with another nation,causing GFS issues as mentioned above would be a nice way of deflecting actual reality from people that can't read the word "Grand" on an IR sat picture.
But what do I know...
Climate Change and Millennials: The Future is in Our Hands
The COP-21 talks in Paris have attracted throngs of young people—and they're tired of waiting patiently for their elders to do something



Le Bourget in Paris is sizzling with youthful energy.

More than 40,000 people have gathered in Paris for the 21st annual Conference of Parties (COP21) in an attempt to address the growing threat of climate change. Among them are heads of government; business and religious leaders; scientists; and citizens of civil society. It’s a compelling display of collective action—and as you navigate the site’s makeshift walls, whimsical décor, and palpable sense of enthusiasm, close to half of the faces you see belong to young people.

Climate Change is the issue of the millennial generation. Millennials, research suggests, are increasingly driven and motivated by a sense of purpose. As the world’s greatest cities risk disappearing under water during our lifetimes, the call to save the world we know becomes more compelling. When we imagine our future, we fear a world that is thronged with climate refugees; where changing weather patterns threaten the food security of the earth’s population, which will likely reach 10 billion inhabitants by 2050; and where rising economic inequalities are exacerbated by the unequal ability of individuals in different parts of the world to adapt to climate change. While climate negotiators quibble over limiting the temperature rise to 1.5° degrees vs 2° Celsius, millennials understand that the problems of 2050 are already our problems.

We understand the stakes.

Yet perhaps, in a departure from past attempts to confront climate change, young people are also aware of our own agency to be a part of the solution. “We can’t wait for another meeting that leads to another meeting,” said a 17-year-old youth delegate named Brianna Fruean, from American Samoa, whose future is threatened by the harsh reality of the island disappearing under water. “We need to act now,” she said a panel discussion.

COP21 is a prime example of how millennials are taking ownership of the climate’s future. No longer passive observers, young people are participating in this year’s COP as members of official delegations, NGO representatives, and as part of a broader youth movement that has already created powerful momentum to tackle climate change.








And in a talk at the UN General Assembly at COP21 earlier this week, 15-year-old indigenous climate activist Xiuhtezcatl Roske-Martinez, who comes from Boulder, Colorado but who was raised in the Aztec tradition, summarized the achievements of young people to date, and ignited the hearts and minds of young and old alike:
“Everywhere young people are rising up and taking action to solve the issues that will be left to our generation … Over 400,000 people marched in through the streets of New York City in the world’s greatest climate march. More than 220 institutions have divested from fossil fuels with the help of student-led movements and the number continues to grow. Youth are suing their state and federal governments across the United States, demanding action on climate change from our elected officials. We are flooding the streets and now we are flooding the courts to get the world to see there is a movement on the rise and we are at the forefront, fighting for the solutions we need.”

It’s no surprise that young people are effective organizers. Climate change is a collective action problem, a problem we’ve been trained to deal with through Facebook, Twitter and social media. The Internet—like climate change—is a great equalizer. Hashtags like #2050startsnow, the motto of the UK Youth Climate Coalition, dominate the twittersphere. As COP21 kicked off in Paris, a new youth movement called Climate Strike organized walk-outs, film screenings and art performances worldwide. Working in collaboration with strangers for things that we care about is not a foreign concept; it’s a welcome challenge.

Young people also come to the climate movement at a time when policymakers have become increasingly aware that the solution to climate change does not lie solely within governments. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) homepage features a youth portal where people can organize and share opinions. Since 2009, COPs have welcomed youth delegates to the negotiations through the YOUNGO coalition—an international network of 2,000 young people that make up the youth climate movement. Its purpose is to empower young people with the skills they need to make a difference.

Beyond organizing, young people are also putting our heads together to come to solutions about climate change. Activists from climate change ask for three simple solutions: keep fossil fuels in the ground, transition to 100% clean energy and support the victims of climate change. The Commonwealth Alliance for Climate Change distributes policy recommendations and voluntary commitments, including funding proposals to build the skills of entrepreneurial young people starting low-carbon businesses.

Scotland’s youth climate group, and many like it, are organizing dialogues between youth delegations and government climate issues year-round—not just when COPs are in session.
The youth movement is not free of the politics and concerns that plague official delegations. YOUNGO—the official youth constituency at the United Nations—holds daily meetings that percolate with evidence of the North/South divide. In one meeting this week, delegates from Southern countries called for more drastic action and larger sit-ins in front of negotiation conference rooms, propelled by an awareness that their countries are more seriously affected by climate change than Northern nations. But even these disagreements are born out of a greater understanding of the ripeness of the climate issue, and our opportunity to influence the course of the world before it’s too late.

“In the light of a collapsing world, what better time to be alive than now, because our generation gets to change the course of history,” Mr. Roske-Martinez said. “Humans have created the greatest problem we face today, but the greater the challenge the higher we will rise to meet it.” His words, though spoken before the official UN delegates at COP21, are directed towards young people everywhere who are desperate to make a difference.
He speaks for all youth when he says that the future is in our hands.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.
Quoting 180. wxdude714:

Lol...

But what do I know...


OK , I'll bite.
Precious little ?
Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Beijing issues red alert on air pollution, schools closed.

"China's capital on Monday issued its first ever "red alert" for pollution, as the city government warned that Beijing would be shrouded in heavy smog from Tuesday until Thursday."

Link

10 Million in Ethiopia Face Hunger After Worst Drought in Decades

JOHANNESBURG—

Ethiopia is dealing with its worst drought in 50 years. Save the Children has launched an urgent call for food aid but says that is only a temporary fix and world leaders meeting in Paris must act on climate change.

Ethiopia's government says a staggering 10.1 million people will face critical food shortages in 2016 — and that more than half of those are children. Adding to that, an estimated 400,000 children are at risk of severe acute malnutrition — a condition that can lead to stunting and physical and mental problems.


Link
185. MahFL
Quoting 172. CaneFreeCR:

Limited-range cars are perfect for commutes of under 30 miles, more than 75% of all trips by car. If used that way and they have zero emissions,...


Electric cars do not have zero emissions.
Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 46m46 minutes ago
Steve Gregory: "Amazing" warmth coming later this week, especially east of the Rockies
Link
2015, the Year the Warmth Increased in December.



In Drought-Hit Uttar Pradesh, The Poor Are Eating Rotis Made Of Grass

Bundelkhand has been roiled by three successive crop failures - for two years because of drought, and a year in the middle because of unseasonal rain

Over the past fortnight as India's attention was riveted on the floods in Chennai, the shadow of drought has deepened across Uttar Pradesh. Fifty of the state's 75 districts have been officially declared as drought-hit. Through this week, NDTV's Truth vs Hype show reports from one such region, Bundelkhand where successive crop failures have had a convulsive impact on its people: from worsening hunger to mass exodus of entire villages. In a three-part series, 'Harvest of Hunger', we report not just on the impact of drought but also investigate the gradual collapse of the safety nets that are meant to protect the rural poor from such events. In the first part, NDTV looks at whether the hunger which has forced people in Bundelkhand to eat grass and weeds, a man-made phenomenon?


Link
Euro collapsing nino quickly, already cool pool showing up enso 3.4 in AMJ
Thailand's Drought: Time to conserve water is now

SALT WATER INTRUSION

There has been a reduction of Chao Phraya River water available to be used due to a problem of salt water salt water Meaning: water with salt in it Thai Translation: ที่น้ำกร่อย , มีรสกร่อย
Learn more
intrusion, said Thanasak Watanathana, the governor of the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWA).

People living in Bangkok and nearby provinces, particularly Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan, to which the MWA supplies tap water, should prepare to deal with possible water shortages during the drought season which lasts from now until May next year.


Link
Quoting 170. Drakoen:



What the 6z giveth, the 12z will taketh it away.


Well it took the "white" away, but still showing a large storm emerging from the GOM. This storm actually brings temps down to 30 degrees at 12Z December 24 down into Florida. This would be a very rare scenario. However, I would love it being it's Christmas Eve, it would feel a lot like Christmas!
Here are some of the details on the code red in China: notice the last paragraph/comment:

The response system was announced in 2013, and this was the first time that a code red had been issued. 
Under the code red, temporary restrictions say that all schools are required to close, cars can only drive on alternate days depending on license plate numbers, and outdoor barbecuing and fireworks are banned. The latter would, if carried out legally, affect the sale of the popular grilled-kebab street food.

The announcement arrived by the state news agency, Xinhua, which posted on its English-language Twitter account that the restrictions would be in effect, and included a photo of the Bird's Nest-the stadium built for the 2008 Summer Olympics-in dark smog and nearly invisible. The Beijing government's official website also posted advisories, according to the New York Times. 

An influx of toxic air was in northern China starting around Nov. 28. On Nov. 30, some parts of the city had air containing the poisonous particulate matter PM 2.5 at nearly 40 times the limit the World Health Organization recommends. This was the year's worst pollution, and it began dissipating on Dec. 1, with strong winds, as the Times reported.

The emergency system is intended to alert citizens at least 24 hours in advance of bad smog, based on wind and weather forecasts.

"This week in Paris, China is rightfully getting credit for its policies to tackle climate change," Alex Wang, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies Chinese environmental policy, said in the New York Times article. "But the extraordinary air pollution in Beijing right now demonstrates just how much remains to be done to make these policies work in practice."

Columbia-led research shows causes of California drought are complex

Ben Cook, a research scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who studies climate records spanning thousands of years before humans began influencing it, said that he thinks the question itself is misstated.

“Whenever some extreme weather climate event happens, whether it’s a hurricane or a flood or a drought, there’s always the question of ‘Did climate change cause this?’ In some ways, that’s the wrong question,” Cook said. “The right question is, ‘Was there an anthropogenic influence that made this event more likely or more intense, and how large of an influence was that?’”


Link
Quoting 192. reedzone:



Well it took the "white" away, but still showing a large storm emerging from the GOM. This storm actually brings temps down to 30 degrees at 12Z December 24 down into Florida. This would be a very rare scenario. However, I would love it being it's Christmas Eve, it would feel a lot like Christmas!



For cold look at Christmas eve/day 1983. ( The included chart is NOT from that day)

Quoting 109. aquak9:

I think next year's graphic should be an
angry old woman chasing us around with a cast-iron skillet-


I'm hoping for a photo of a kitten playing a piano followed by the text:

Derp, deep derp, derpity derp, derpity doo.

Will be about as impactful as the constantly repeated 2015 post.
Rather depressing article on vehicles and climate change. The sheer number of cars will offset any gains in emissions and US automakers are using trucks as a means of getting around mpg and emission standards.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/08/business/energy -environment/despite-push-for-cleaner-cars-sheer-n umbers-could-work-against-climate-benefits.html?em c=edit_th_20151208&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=4642736 3
Quoting 196. LouisPasteur:

I'm hoping for a photo of a kitten playing a piano followed by the text:

Derp, deep derp, derpity derp, derpity doo.

Will be about as impactful as the constantly repeated 2015 post.
/blockquote>

You know what? KeyboardCat might very well be an appropriate graphic. Sort of like, no matter what, the cat played on. Like the band on the Titanic did, while the ship was sinking.

Hmmmm. You may have hit upon something, MrPasteur.
The livestock are restless.

I checked the earthquake site, no recent nearby temblors.

Mrs. Pig farrowed early this morning, too. A bit early for her.

I'm guessing they're feeling the oncoming storm due tomorrow night over the Sierras. Crest winds are expected to be comfortably in the triple digits, which means I want to get up on the roof before the wave comes through. Wind direction will tell me if I want to get any more batten boards screwed down. Also the last storm shredded the tarp that came with our pipe frame storage tent, so I need to get that storage situation moved into the pole barn. Thursday morning is the last of the pig injection series, and I am not looking forward to that. Here's hoping my friend gets a load more of dirt in so I can cope better with the mud.
Quoting 185. MahFL:



Electric cars do not have zero emissions.
Explain, Mah... Are you referring to the power plants used to provide the charge? Certainly there is no exhaust on electric cars.
The strategy is to generate electricity without fossil fuels and run electric cars. It requires a large change in infrastructure, so just getting electric cars on the road is a big deal.
Is anyone else getting Script Errors or page freezes? I got script errors with Internet Destroyer (Internet Explorer) 11 and the page keeps freezing on Firefox.
Quoting 201. bappit:

The strategy is to generate electricity without fossil fuels and run electric cars. It requires a large change in infrastructure, so just getting electric cars on the road is a big deal.
The equivalency for electric cars in terms of mpg is available. Overwhelmingly, electric cars have a better "mpg" than combustion engine cars. Even the Tesla P85D is close to 100 mpg equivalent. (source https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/36008.sht ml).

I agree that we need to be working on the power sources, but there is no reason why we shouldn't be doing both.
Quoting 200. SouthTampa:

Explain, Mah... Are you referring to the power plants used to provide the charge? Certainly there is no exhaust on electric cars.


Well, that is because nothing that is manufactured has zero emissions as the manufacturing process has emissions. But my E-car is powered from my solar generation and so are most of the generation stations for Tesla, so where is the emission once the car is produced?
Quoting 203. SouthTampa:
The equivalency for electric cars in terms of mpg is available. Overwhelmingly, electric cars have a better "mpg" than combustion engine cars. Even the Tesla P85D is close to 100 mpg equivalent. (source https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/36008.sht ml).

I agree that we need to be working on the power sources, but there is no reason why we shouldn't be doing both.
I thought that was true, but it won't do the job by itself. The goal is as close to zero CO2 emissions as we can get.
New EURO showing the next storm much further south and east of the GFS run, this would keep the severe weather threat towards the Southeast then the Mid-Atlantic. Severe weather outbreak starts in Texas/Louisiana on both models, but the GFS shoots the storm through the Great Lakes while the EURO shoots it towards NY/PA. Pretty large difference in track which could effect a huge part of where the squall line that forms will go.
@ 161 that is pretty darn funny!!! and true!
Quoting 208. reedzone:

New EURO showing the next storm much further south and east of the GFS run, this would keep the severe weather threat towards the Southeast then the Mid-Atlantic. Severe weather outbreak starts in Texas/Louisiana on both models, but the GFS shoots the storm through the Great Lakes while the EURO shoots it towards NY/PA. Pretty large difference in track which could effect a huge part of where the squall line that forms will go.


Just a matter of time before us in C & N FL turn stormy as much of California is expected to get rain nearly everyday the next 7 to 10 days. That's a lot of storms pushing into the US so I would suspect to see a much more active pattern begin to occur across the SE US.
Euro collapsing nino quickly, already cool pool showing up enso 3.4 in AMJ
GEOS-5 has been showing the chance of severe weather early next week stronger and more widespread.


Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:



Just a matter of time before us in C & N FL turn stormy as much of California is expected to get rain nearly everyday the next 7 to 10 days. That's a lot of storms pushing into the US so I would suspect to see a much more active pattern begin to occur across the SE US.


This next storm was looking like it was gonna be the deal breaker but recent runs over the last few days have the severe weather north of Florida. We'll see what happens. Interesting times ahead towards Christmas.
Political comments should refer to science, science policy or the entry itself.

The flooding forecast in Oregon happened..

AP
Just happened in Rome. Enjoy the youtube video below!



Vatican endangered species light show Italy 12/8/15
St. Peter's Basilica in the Vatican Rome, Italy was transformed into a giant canvas for a spectacular public art project designed to draw attention to climate change, endangered species .....



Fiat Lux: illuminating our common home
Public art projection featuring images of humanity and climate change to illuminate St Peter's Basilica
The Guardian, Monday 7 December 2015 10.21 GMT
On 8 December, a humanitarian coalition comprised of Paul G. Allen's Vulcan Inc., the Li Ka Shing Foundation and Okeanos, in partnership with The Oceanic Preservation Society and Obscura Digital, and under the auspices of the World Bank Group's Connect4Climate initiative, will present a gift of contemporary public art entitled Fiat Lux: Illuminating our Common Home to Pope Francis on the opening day of the Extraordinary Jubilee of Mercy.
At this unprecedented and historic event, beautiful images of our shared natural world will be projected onto the facade of St Peter's Basilica, in a contemporary work of public art that tells the visual story of the inter-dependency of humans and life on the planet. The projection is aimed to educate and inspire change around the climate crisis across generations, cultures, languages, religions and class. The large-scale architectural public art installation is inspired by the themes of climate change, human dignity and the earth's living creatures included in Pope Francis' Laudato Si encyclical.
Programmed to coincide not only with the jubilee but also with Cop21 in Paris, the historic occasion will call on citizens of the world to join a global movement to protect our common home. The projection can be viewed by those at St Peter's Basilica and via live global television broadcasts and online streaming. The cinematic event will feature the work of some of the world's most notable humanistic and nature photographers and filmmakers ...

More see link above.
For those at all interested in events on the other side of the Atlantic, the mopping up after "Desmond" has started in NW England and thoughts are turning to what caused the event and how we might (or not) defend against a similar event next time. The link below is a rather basic and simple, but nonetheless useful, summary given on the Beeb today; it includes some interesting comments about half way through on the "atmospheric river" construct/theory, and shows a graphic with a stream of moist air traced all the way back to the Caribbean. Also some v. brief comments on climate change:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35040336

At time of writing - about 8:30 p.m. GMT - there are still about 1,500 homes without power. Many houses have had to be abandoned and I suspect hundreds, if not thousands, of householders will not be able to return home until well into next year, maybe sometime in the Spring.
Fresh off the presses!



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 081003
SPC AC 081003

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2015

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4/FRI/...DETERMINISTIC MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH D4 /FRI/ WITH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTHERN MEXICO BY
12Z SAT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING POLEWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OZARKS...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR WEST TO
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT TSTM ACTIVITY AND/OR A SEVERE TSTM THREAT.

DAY 5/SAT/...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL AGREES WITH THE
TIMING OF A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES SUGGESTING BOTH A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINED CAPE/SHEAR
PROBABILITIES FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE 00Z GEFS.

DAY 6/SUN/...GREATER TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN DURING DAY 6 TO
INCLUDE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

DAY 6/SUN/-DAY 8/TUE/...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM
PACIFIC TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON SUN AND
EVOLVES INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S BY DAY 8.
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME WITH
THIS NEXT TROUGH.
Quoting 146. Webberweather53:

A few more SST datasets have updated within the last day or so & we're continuing to set records in the Oceanic Nino Index. For the 2nd month in a row, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 recorded a new record tri-monthly ONI value & last month (@ 2.33C) was the 6th highest for any tri-monthly period in the 146 year ONI record of this dataset (99.7 percentile. With regards to the entire record, we're running 3 standard deviations above normal, for SON alone, still about 2.7 sigma.)

Kaplan Extended SSTv2 Top 20 El Ninos (SON)


In all likelihood, I'm likely going to be forced to adjust the scaling of the time series next month. This is ridiculous...



COBE SST has shot through the roof, the ONI officially cracking 2.5C. We've likely haven't hit the peak of this NINO yet either in the tri-monthly data, yikes...


OTH, in the monthly data, ERSSTv4 is likely still low-balling this El Nino. The anomaly for November is over .3C below what's being reported by it's predecessor (ERSSTv3b) & the raw NINO 3.4 temperature is about .25C of degree below what I've seen from any other dataset. I suspect that the high frequency filter is leading to spurious initial SST estimates in ERSST, the last few months have observed dramatic upticks in raw & anomalies in the following month & I have little doubt that we'll see another major upward adjustment of November's ONI value next month.

COBE SST : Raw: 29.58C, Anom: 2.895C
OISSTv2 (1 degree): Raw: 29.61C, Anom: 2.828C
CDAS 1: Raw: 29.51C, Anom: 2.796C
NCEP R1: Raw: 29.55C, Anom: 2.762C
ERSSTv3b: Raw: 29.42C, Anom: 2.680C
Kaplan v2: Raw: 29.37C, Anom: 2.622C (even though this dataset is presented as anomalies wrt the 1951-1980 base period, the anomaly data were converted to raw values from GOSTA atlas 7)
IOCADSv2.5 Raw: 29.40C, Anom: 2.510C
ERSSTv4: Raw: 29.12C, Anom: 2.344C


So we're over the 3rd strongest El Niño in the past 65 years?
Quoting 219. trunkmonkey:

Fresh off the presses!



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 081003
SPC AC 081003

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2015

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4/FRI/...DETERMINISTIC MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH D4 /FRI/ WITH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTHERN MEXICO BY
12Z SAT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING POLEWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OZARKS...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR WEST TO
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT TSTM ACTIVITY AND/OR A SEVERE TSTM THREAT.

DAY 5/SAT/...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL AGREES WITH THE
TIMING OF A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES SUGGESTING BOTH A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINED CAPE/SHEAR
PROBABILITIES FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE 00Z GEFS.

DAY 6/SUN/...GREATER TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN DURING DAY 6 TO
INCLUDE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

DAY 6/SUN/-DAY 8/TUE/...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM
PACIFIC TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON SUN AND
EVOLVES INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S BY DAY 8.
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME WITH
THIS NEXT TROUGH.



Not quite ;) It will get a little more active in the near future for the severe wx enthusiasts however.
There are two doors. Behind Door Number One is a completely sealed room, with a regular, gasoline-fueled car. Behind Door Number Two is an identical, completely sealed room, with an electric car. Both engines are running full blast.

I want you to pick a door to open, and enter the room and shut the door behind you. You have to stay in the room you choose for one hour. You cannot turn off the engine. You do not get a gas mask.

I’m guessing you chose the Door Number Two, with the electric car, right? Door number one is a fatal choice – who would ever want to breathe those fumes?


Did The Governator Just Come Up With A Republican-Proof Argument On Climate Change?
Now California is the nation’s leader in both solar installations and solar jobs.

“We lead the nation in manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, entertainment, high tech, biotech, and, of course, green tech,” Schwarzenegger writes.
Quoting 195. georgevandenberghe:



For cold look at Christmas eve/day 1983. ( The included chart is NOT from that day)



A major cool down like the one depicted in the model run posted would not be terribly unusual, as I remember at least several years where we have had chilly weather for Christmas here in Central FL. By that time, we will certainly be due for our first 30s of the winter season. Our lowest so far has officially been 49F.

That 1983 cold wave sure hit in hurry. Christmas Day 1983 had a high of 36F and a low of 21F here in Orlando. That must be our coldest Christmas ever. The next day, the high was 44F and the low 19F!!! 1989 was also cold with 28F/48F on Christmas Day and 21F/36F the day before that. We don't get nighttime temperatures that low anymore here in Orlando. Most likely, this is due to the urbanization. Nothing below 24F in the city since 1989.
Quoting 170. Drakoen:



What the 6z giveth, the 12z will taketh it away.


Book Of GFS, Chapter 1, verse 23
Quoting 163. NativeSun:

What's there to wake up to, of course the climate is changing, it always does.

NativeSun:
I would like to see a list of just what makes this statement true.
Everyone have safe weather evening. Been a little testy and politically driven lately on the Blog. Hopefully the prospect of some potential severe weather for Conus and the onset of the typical and more potent winter lows/storms will keep the the Blog more on topic. Will note that the typical El Nino Winter pattern (warmer Pacific NW and cooler/wetter Gulf/South) as a result of the typical split-pattern Conus jet has not fully materialized either; maybe the long-term forecast as noted below is the beginning of the typical pattern.  See Yall in the am.


Strong winds and High Waves hit Arctic Ocean

Strong winds and high waves are hitting the Arctic Ocean from both the Atkantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Above image shows waves as high as 12.36 m or 40.5 ft near Greenland on December 8, 2015.

The image on the right shows cyclonic winds with speeds as high as 142 km/h or 88 mph near Greenland on December 8, 2015.

The situation looks set to get even worse. The image further down on the right shows that waves as high as 14.04 m or 46.1 ft are forecast to hit the Bering Strait on December 13, 2015.

The video below, created with Climate Reanalyzer images, shows strong winds over the period from December 5 to 15, 2015. The video illustrates how cyclonic winds are hitting the Arctic Ocean both from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.


Link
Quoting 163. NativeSun:

What's there to wake up to, of course the climate is changing, it always does.


This is a perfect example of how one supports an ideal that is from a political slant as opposed to a scientific evidenced based view of a subject. It's juvenile in nature, trollish in form, and shows a lack of respect for the blog, science, and the evidence of the harm being done to the world and millions who've already been adversely affected by AGW. We're better than this as a country, but we're being swept by a wave of fear, propaganda against truth, and political division that diverts from what the truth actually is. This must be countered and stopped or we will lose our identity as the great country that stands for freedom, protecting our natural resources, fairness, respect of religious differences, and just good old common sense.
230. MahFL
Quoting 200. SouthTampa:

Explain, Mah... Are you referring to the power plants used to provide the charge? Certainly there is no exhaust on electric cars.


Yes the power plants and the manufacture and disposal of the car/battery when it's life is over.
232. MahFL
Quoting 201. bappit:

The strategy is to generate electricity without fossil fuels and run electric cars. It requires a large change in infrastructure, so just getting electric cars on the road is a big deal.


The large change in infrastructure is not taking place. Fossil fuels are still being used to generate electricity and the few cars on the road are a tiny tiny percentage.
233. MahFL
Quoting 202. 62901IL:

Is anyone else getting Script Errors or page freezes? I got script errors with Internet Destroyer (Internet Explorer) 11 and the page keeps freezing on Firefox.


I just got a page that said the blog does not exist.
Quoting 230. MahFL:



Yes the power plants and the manufacture and disposal of the car/battery when it's life is over.


Yes the power plants .......... The state of Texas gets 10 percent of electrical power from wind

The most recycled thing in the world are car batteries. And if one has the new battery that Telsa is about to build. You have 2 batteries, on in your car, and one at home. The one at home collects energy all day from your roof . That keeps your ice cubes cold while your at work. But it also charges your car at night . And when the storm comes, and life gets really tough your car battery is helping to keep your ice cubes cold.

Off the grid !

MahFL

I'm not a Hindu, but every argument you guys make , reminds me of the harness makers, and buggy whip companies in 1890. Where horse manure was the great waste problem of the day.
And they never saw what was coming.

You guys love Palin because none of you can see past your own front porch.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN HAS PERSISTED MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY ADJACENT TO BISCAYNE BAY...MAINLY MIAMI AND POINTS SOUTH.
SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY CORAL GABLES/COCONUT GROVE...HAVE
RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES...AGGRAVATING FLOODING PROBLEMS ONCE
AGAIN. EXPECT SAME GENERAL COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT MAY APPROACH AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. GFS HAS A FASTER APPROACH...WHEREAS ECMWF DELAYS APPROACH
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AT EARLIEST...WHILE ALSO PROVIDING A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR
NOW...FORECAST HOLDS LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Link
The GFS is now showing a colder pattern coming around the 18th and going into Christmas week. The 18z GFS is showing this now for around the 18th, it is still a bit far out, but we can sense a colder change is coming with precipitation being around.
Quoting 232. MahFL:



The large change in infrastructure is not taking place. Fossil fuels are still being used to generate electricity and the few cars on the road are a tiny tiny percentage.


Texas get 10 percent of it's electrical power from wind. And if you folks just would wake up in the 21st century, life would be so much better.

MahFL

I'm not a Hindu, but every argument you guys make , reminds me of the harness makers, and buggy whip companies in 1890. Where horse manure was the great waste problem of the day.
And they never saw what was coming.

You guys love Palin because none of you can see past your own front porch.
aquak9


made a mention about your statement to administrators.
That's the shortest ban I ever had!

Come on cold weather! I'm mongering for it!


A tropical depression is forecast to form in sea east of Mindanao (Philippines) in 48 hours.
I am reminded of Grace Slick -

"It's a wild thyme , I'm doing things that don't have a name yet."

Link

She's still alive.

And she was right -


"It's a wild thyme , I'm doing things that don't have a name yet."

Certainly , what just happened in Iceland. Now it moves on to the East.

Eight years ago, I read a statement from the head of US Forest Fire Service , "We Have never seen this before".

If had a nickle for everyone have I seen make that same statement since then , I'd have like 5 Bucks. Which is over 100 people saying the same thing-

"We Have never seen this before".

"Models are predicting an increase in energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere starting the third week of December. This will likely lead to perturbation of the polar vortex during the latter half of December. The more the vortex is perturbed, the higher our confidence in a cold second half of winter"- Judah Cohen
Quoting 232. MahFL:
The large change in infrastructure is not taking place. Fossil fuels are still being used to generate electricity and the few cars on the road are a tiny tiny percentage.
I'm guessing your point is that we have our work cut out for us.

Here's one possible viewpoint.
We have put up with the delaying tactics of fossil fuel interests and political grandstanding long enough. We must stop pandering to the anti-intellectual my-ignorance-is-better-than-your-knowledge bent of American culture. People have had one cheeseburger too many and become devoid of any patience or strength of character. They are all w e e n i e s.
But perhaps there is a more charitable way of looking at things which someone could enlighten us with.
Quoting 243. PensacolaDoug:

That's the shortest ban I ever had!

Come on cold weather! I'm mongering for it!


Same here Doug. Hope you finally get some snow this winter!
“We Have never seen this before”.

That's core words folks.

Remember that sentence.

One of our own, told us that wind speeds on Iceland were over 160 mph. And that station after station failed in this storm.

So we will never know, the number. And as number nerds, remember this .............
The wind on Iceland was blowing over 160 mph. when most of the stations failed.
Quoting 243. PensacolaDoug:

That's the shortest ban I ever had!

Come on cold weather! I'm mongering for it!


I ate 3 day bans for breakfast .

Josey Wales: Hell is coming to breakfast

"now spit"

PensacolaDoug:

You are not Josey Wells .

Link
I liked what LowerCal posted on the Rood Dude's blog so much I'm reposting it here.
Quoting 216. LowerCal:
Warning: The following link contains non family friendly language. Reader discretion is advised.

Elon Musk's Answer to Ending Global Warming - Fortune
(For the full article click the link above. Below is an excerpt.)
As world leaders and policymakers continue climate negotiations in Paris, serial entrepreneur Elon Musk appealed to a younger, seemingly less powerful group to help prevent global warming.

His message: only a carbon tax—not innovation, conservation, or renewable energy—will accelerate the transition from carbon-producing fossil fuels to sustainable energy.

“I think you have tremendous power—you have the power to make change,” Musk told students during a conference at the Sorbonne in Paris, just a 30-minute drive from the 2015 U.N. Climate Change Conference, where negotiations are underway to pass an international treaty that would cut emissions enough to prevent the world’s temperature from rising 2 degrees Celsius.

Musk, who has pushed for a carbon tax before, said the tax should be revenue neutral and phased in over a period of years. A revenue neutral tax means governments would still receive the same amount of money despite a change in the tax code. Under Musk’s scenario, taxes would be weighted heavily on carbon, and reduced in other areas. This approach already occurs, Musk said, citing how taxes are higher on cigarettes and alcohol than fruits and vegetables.

Musk encouraged students to press politicians to take action on climate change because “governments respond to popular pressure.”

Eventually, the world will run out of carbon to mine and burn, and will have to move to sustainable energy, Musk predicted at the conference. A hidden subsidy that benefits all carbon-producing activity—about $5.3 trillion annually, according to the IMF—is delaying that transition, he said.

The net result of this “untaxed negative externality” is 35 gigatonnes of carbon per year being emitted into the atmosphere—additional carbon that Musk described as the ....(bleep)
Estimates I saw were 32 gigatonnes and 36 gigatons (different units). A gigaton here and a gigatonne there and before you know it, we're talking about real pollution.
241. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:10 AM GMT on December 09, 2015
aquak9
made a mention about your statement to administrators.


Why Thank you.
Quoting 230. MahFL:



Yes the power plants and the manufacture and disposal of the car/battery when it's life is over.


The batteries used in electric vehicles are almost 100% recyclable, so your argument fails there.

Using electricity to charge batteries in electric vehicles is more efficient than burning gasoline in an internal combustion engine (ICE), so lowers effective emissions. Power generation plants are far more efficient, and even counting line losses and charging loses electric vehicles come out ahead. In addition, if the power is supplied from renewable sources then there are practically no emissions. So again, your argument fails.

With manufacturers like Nissan producing longer range commuter cars, fast charging technologies, etc. it's only a matter of time before most ICE based vehicles go the way of the Dodo. ICE's will still be necessary for heavy vehicles/long range vehicles until energy densities increase (potentially with advancements in aluminum based chemistries) but the average day to day use can easily be handled with the next gen electrics without "range anxiety".
" I'd been half way to Mexico by now , except for that crazy squaw, I can't understand a word she says."
Here a photo gallery with some more gorgeous photos of the huge "endangered species" slide show in Rome tonight in respect to COP21 (see post #217):


(Click the pic for more).


From the gallery above - great. "The lion roars tonight ..." What is real, what a projection?

Here another short video. Wish I had been there.
You might be losin the bubble there Bob.
" I'd been half way to Mexico by now , except for that crazy squaw, I can't understand a word she says."
Quoting 257. PensacolaDoug:

You might be losin the bubble there Bob.


You might want to abandon willful ignorance as path foreword.
I look forward to the day where solar-powered, self driving Tesla's are driving around on Mars.
I for one welcome our new IBM over lords.
Quoting 260. CybrTeddy:

I look forward to the day where solar-powered, self driving Tesla's are driving around on Mars.


Don't hold your breath. the Japanese have saved their Venus probe.
Maybe?

It's the same size as Earth.
It shares a very near orbit.
It has 96 percent Co2 in it's atmosphere.
It has a surface temperature of 870F , enough to melt lead.

When the deniers win these are 2 options.

What could possibly go wrong ?
Quoting 225. Xyrus2000:



Book Of GFS, Chapter 1, verse 23


GFS

God's Forecasting System?
Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:



Just a matter of time before us in C & N FL turn stormy as much of California is expected to get rain nearly everyday the next 7 to 10 days. That's a lot of storms pushing into the US so I would suspect to see a much more active pattern begin to occur across the SE US.




Models still don't show anything remotely heavy for Central and North Florida in the extended.
Will our legacy be we changed our American values in the face of fear while ignoring the glaringly obvious signs of climate change all around us and gave in to powered interests that directed our thinking through lies and propaganda? Or will we regain our ability of individual thought, cherish what made us the freest and most progressive country in the world, and lead the world in hard choices now to avoid unthinkable consequences later when it comes to addressing AGW. It's a battle for your spirit and your mind. It's a battle for the truth over lies, and it's a battle for right versus wrong. We must win it now, or all future generations lose.
Quoting 173. Bucsboltsfan:

In December of 1997, Tampa got over 17" of rain. So far this month we're basically dry with nothing on the horizon as we get into mid December.




SST anomalies are just SST anomalies. In the end, El Nino events aren't a direct function of heavy rain in Florida. There have been past El Nino events with a lot of rain, and some with not much. There have even been rainy La Nina winters too.

El Nino on average increases the chances of getting a wetter winter, but not guarantees it. December could end up drier than average as it has so far, and as the fall has been.

What also is tricky is how to manage how much coverage will El Nino impact the weather, and actually attributing weather events to El Nino. What I mean by that is, for example, has heavy rain in South Florida recently, and a wet November here due to El Nino? Who knows, much of the SE including most of Florida has been much drier than average in contrast. It can't really be said.

Quoting 260. CybrTeddy:

If we just can figure out how to install a magnetic field on Mars. We can abandon our plundered home , the raped, torched, bite, and burnt.

Surely , we will leave the lessons of the past behind. If can all figure out how to move to Mars with out new taxes,
Time is the scarcest resource. Working blue collar most my life and talking to co-workers, it's easily 3-1 who don't believe AGW is happening at all. Same reasoning across the board, it's scary how similar all the responses are. What's even worse is a much higher percentage have no clue about any of it. And they have zero interest in knowing. Willful ignorance is a huge problem. Anti-intellectualism is sweeping the West and technology addiction in it's millions of forms take up all our time. Time is the scarcest resource.
Quoting 260. CybrTeddy:
I look forward to the day where solar-powered, self driving Tesla's are driving around on Mars.
We will never go to Mars. We have nothing to gain by going there. Tesla may go out of business. Their cars are certainly too expensive. We could do a lot more with solar power. Do our politicians have a handle on any of this? No. They are busy wallowing in the mud.

Cruz's campaign strategy "was hatched with Cruz's steadfast unwillingness to judge Trump after he memorably charged that some Mexican immigrants were rapists."

Quoting 260. CybrTeddy:

I live for satire as well , Thanks for the spark at 267.

We'll all move to Mars as soon as we solve the problem it has no magnetic field, and we won't draft, of tax our selves to do it.

Quoting 260. CybrTeddy:

I look forward to the day where solar-powered, self driving Tesla's are driving around on Mars.


Mars? Mars is a cool place for science exploration, but it's another barren wasteland. There's no reason to waste resources getting people to live on Mars given how insanely costly it would be to do so.

I'm a huge science fiction nut, but because I'm also into real science as student, I realize the ridiculousness of colonizing barren inhospitable planets. Space travel is tough enough, going to other planets for anything more than science exploration is wasteful.
Quoting 265. DeepSeaRising:

Will our legacy be we changed our American values in the face of fear while ignoring the glaringly obvious signs of climate change all around us and gave in to powered interests that directed our thinking through lies and propaganda? Or will we regain our ability of individual thought, cherish what made us the freest and most progressive country in the world, and lead the world in hard choices now to avoid unthinkable consequences later when it comes to addressing AGW. It's a battle for your spirit and your mind. It's a battle for the truth over lies, and it's a battle for right versus wrong. We must win it now, or all future generations lose.

Capitalism along with the industrial revolution with the help of oil are one of the things that earned us that title.
The future of our country and its ability to address AGW will depend on free enterprise. Entrepreneurs and their ability to create jobs that are beneficial to the economy and the world as a whole are all in store for us.
This is an opportunity not a sentence.



Quoting 269. bappit:

We will never go to Mars. We have nothing to gain by going there. Tesla may go out of business. Their cars are certainly too expensive. We could do a lot more with solar power. Do our politicians have a handle on any of this? No. They are busy wallowing in the mud.

Cruz's campaign strategy "was hatched with Cruz's steadfast unwillingness to judge Trump after he memorably charged that some Mexican immigrants were rapists."


Tesla was smart for starting with a really expensive car that outperforms most luxury cars in it's class in terms of power and features for the same price. They did this to prove electric cars don't have to be slow, or not enjoyable to drive. Their goal is to eventually make cheaper cars in mass production. With that said, could they fail? Yes, there remains a lot of opposition to alternative energies, so it won't be easy. But that's true with anyone who is bold enough to attempt to break industry barriers.

What is really needed is massive break through in battery tech that will allow people to travel several hundred miles on a high HP engine. The biggest draw back people are scared of is running out of power along a road trip and not being able to make it to a charge station.

Also we live in a modern culture is that increasingly impulsive and impatient due to how culture is evolving with most tech being put into quick stimuli when it comes to urban life. Some people are so much so in this way, that every day, we see people constantly texting and glued to their phones, even to the point of risking death or injury by doing so while driving. People will also take risks such as pulling out in front of a car dangerously instead of waiting 15 seconds for a more clear spot to merge.

There are many more examples, but the point is, expecting people to wait an hour to charge a battery vs a few minutes to fill a gas tank will cause many people to avoid electric vehicles out of pure impatience, even if we do get to the point of having a $20,000 electric car that has a 400 mile battery charge ability.
Draft and tax.

We will huff and puff all day long . About every manner of things . But we will never lay down and pay for it, and take people to do it.

As a historian , we're in spot where Rome killed 16 emperors in less that 199 years.

If we won't draft our selves, and we won't tax our selves , then we are lost.
Quoting 273. Jedkins01:
Tesla was smart for starting with a really expensive car that outperforms most luxury cars in it's class in terms of power and features for the same price. They did this to prove electric cars don't have to be slow, or not enjoyable to drive. [I agree that was a good idea] Their goal is to eventually make cheaper cars in mass production. With that said, could they fail? Yes, there remains a lot of opposition to alternative energies, so it won't be easy. But that's true with anyone who is bold enough to attempt to break industry barriers. [Nah, I'm hoping that competition will do them in. I don't want them to fail in silly way. I want the brutal marketplace to do them in, if it happens.]

What is really needed is massive break through in battery tech that will allow people to travel several hundred miles on a high HP engine. The biggest draw back people are scared of is running out of power along a road trip and not being able to make it to a charge station. [They are also after batteries that people could install in their houses to charge in off hours and run stuff off DC.]

Also we live in a modern culture is that increasingly impulsive and impatient due to how culture is evolving with most tech being put into quick stimuli when it comes to urban life. Some people are so much so in this way, that every day, we see people constantly texting and glued to their phones, even to the point of risking death or injury by doing so while driving. People will also take risks such as pulling out in front of a car dangerously instead of waiting 15 seconds for a more clear spot to merge. [Natural selection might help with that!]

There are many more examples, but the point is, expecting people to wait an hour to charge a battery vs a few minutes to fill a gas tank will cause many people to avoid electric vehicles out of pure impatience, even if we do get to the point of having a $20,000 electric car that has a 400 mile battery charge ability. [So an idea I saw was to make the batteries quickly interchangeable. Take one out, put in another at the local battery station.]
Quoting 225. Xyrus2000:



Book Of GFS, Chapter 1, verse 23


With the snow parts grayed out.
I think we have much to gain by going to Mars and beyond. The intangible benefits accruing to our exploring nature.
Quoting 273. Jedkins01:



Tesla was smart for starting with a really expensive car that outperforms most luxury cars in it's class in terms of power and features for the same price. They did this to prove electric cars don't have to be slow, or not enjoyable to drive. Their goal is to eventually make cheaper cars in mass production. With that said, could they fail? Yes, there remains a lot of opposition to alternative energies, so it won't be easy. But that's true with anyone who is bold enough to attempt to break industry barriers.

What is really needed is massive break through in battery tech that will allow people to travel several hundred miles on a high HP engine. The biggest draw back people are scared of is running out of power along a road trip and not being able to make it to a charge station.

Also we live in a modern culture is that increasingly impulsive and impatient due to how culture is evolving with most tech being put into quick stimuli when it comes to urban life. Some people are so much so in this way, that every day, we see people constantly texting and glued to their phones, even to the point of risking death or injury by doing so while driving. People will also take risks such as pulling out in front of a car dangerously instead of waiting 15 seconds for a more clear spot to merge.

There are many more examples, but the point is, expecting people to wait an hour to charge a battery vs a few minutes to fill a gas tank will cause many people to avoid electric vehicles out of pure impatience, even if we do get to the point of having a $20,000 electric car that has a 400 mile battery charge ability.
An old Bahamian Mr Sands from 7 generations on Great Guana Cay with only 106 residents in 1999 asked me a question one day....How come you Americans are always in such a hurry? You go last minute to the airport, hurry to the store, rush to pick up the kids all in such a dash that you forget why you are even here. It's a question and a lesson that has stuck with me forever.
Yea...patience that's a tough one.
Perhaps interchangeable batteries or even better yet the perpetual alternator.
280. N3EG
Getting hammered in the Pacific Northwest right now - 40 miles north of Portland OR. 4.3 inches of rain in the last two days, and still another 4 to 6 hours to go with this atmospheric river.
If we face the threat of our age , how come we don't draft the best and brightest , and tax our most rich streams of money ?

Quoting 277. BaltimoreBrian:
I think we have much to gain by going to Mars and beyond. The intangible benefits accruing to our exploring nature.
Okay, you might have a point. After all, there is an article on Yahoo Business Insider called "Sending humans to Mars could uncover a disturbing truth to one of life's greatest mysteries". It has something to do with, and please don't blame me for this, panspermia.

"A theory called panspermia, which dates back to the 5th century BC, posits that certain life forms can hop between planets, and even star systems, to fertilize them with life. Following this theory, some scientists suspect that the first life on Earth never formed on our planet at all, but instead, hitched a ride inside planetary fragments from Mars that were flung into space after a powerful impact and eventually fell to Earth."

Maybe we came here from Mars!
Quoting 268. DeepSeaRising:

Time is the scarcest resource. Working blue collar most my life and talking to co-workers, it's easily 3-1 who don't believe AGW is happening at all. Same reasoning across the board, it's scary how similar all the responses are. What's even worse is a much higher percentage have no clue about any of it. And they have zero interest in knowing. Willful ignorance is a huge problem. Anti-intellectualism is sweeping the West and technology addiction in it's millions of forms take up all our time. Time is the scarcest resource.
I find this somewhat pessimistic about our culture. I have talked to many people at school and at work and most that I have talked to do agree that something is going on or do acknowledge it, but when you actually start explaining it to them, then they become a little more aware of the situation and how bad it really is. You have to really dig deep to the ones who don't believe AGW is happening, and even just start out with a simple conversation, like have you noticed the air being a little more smoggy lately or that it's been really hot as of late, and then ask them do you think it is kind of unusual? Maybe, even ask them if they have been to the beach lately and if they have noticed the water being a little warmer than usual.

Sometimes it is good to take a step back for a second and realize that not everyone is smart or may have grew up in hardship or just couldn't afford to go to school. This doesn't mean we belittle everyone on topics like climate change, it is our duty for the ones who had some form of education to go out there and educate people on climate change. We will get through to the ones who are new to this or are starting to come to the forefront.

Unfortunately, there will still be those who deny it and no matter how hard you try to explain to them, it still won't persuade them, you can throw up graphs showing the concentration of CO2 levels or global average temperatures through the decades, and you can even show them pictures of what is going on in Greenland, Antarctica, and the Arctic. You can relate your own experiences from travelling to different countries, and yet still some won't believe, and I think there just comes a point you have to give up on those people and move on to the next person who is willing to learn.

At the end of the day, I know what I need to do, and I have already begun to adjust my lifestyle and make changes. I would like to leave an Earth behind that is clean and sustainable for my children and grandchildren and for future generations. And I would like to think that they can enjoy the luxuries of life that we all have, clean drinking water, fresh breathable air, and even oil, oil that they can use to cook with. You see I still think we will have good use of oil and natural gas in the future, but we must preserve it, and not deplete it. I also don't think it would be wise to go to 100% renewables and leave behind non-renewables. But ease off on the non-renwables and continue to build more renewable energy plants. So maybe by 2050 it is like 70% renewables and 30% non-renewables. Guess what it would also do? Keep jobs and people employed. I think just like the industrial revolution made America's economy boom! just like it is making China's economy boom, the same thing will happen with the green energy revolution, and the economic growth of America will rise once again.
I didn't know that the panspermia concept dated back to the 5th century BCE. I did know Svante Arrhenius was a proponent of the theory.
Wow, this is disturbing, just heard a gun battle going on nearby, numerous shots, at least 20-30+, now tons of emergency vehicle sounds, continuous police sirens blaring, and more gunfire...

Yikes...
Quoting 286. Jedkins01:

Wow, this is disturbing, just heard a gun battle going on nearby, numerous shots, at least 20-30+, now tons of emergency vehicle sounds, continuous police sirens blaring, and more gunfire...

Yikes...


I 2nd that Yikes....
Quoting 220. pablosyn:



So we're over the 3rd strongest El Niño in the past 65 years?


The uncertainty is still large enough that as a whole this is one of the 4 strongest El Ninos since observations began in the mid 19th century, but in terms of the Oceanic NINO index, we're observing at least the 3rd strongest NINO, right up there with 1877-78 & 1997-98, both of which were accompanied by massive global temperature spikes, the former (1877-78) being more than double the amplitude of the latter... Even though the MEI shows this NINO lagging slightly behind 1997-98 & 1982-83, it's worth mentioning that the data source for this index (CODAS) is quite noisy & is unadjusted, thus aside from potential unfiltered bogus errors, variance may be lost with inclusion of additional variables (specifically U/V surface wind & OLR). Klaus Wolter also notes that although, the MEI.ext includes pre 1950 data that's fraught with appreciably larger uncertainties, the seasonal variance explained by the MEI.ext fields( pressure & SST) explains more than the original MEI (1950-2014), & the "centers of gravity" wrt epicenters for the loading fields for SST & SLP also have a significantly less pronounced seasonal cycle than the MEI. Hence, pre-filtering of the CODAS observations through datasets such as HADSST, HADSLP2, etc. along with a longer record stabilizes & increases the statistical significance of a given ENSO index in spite of larger errors before 1950. The BEST index is currently the only multivariate ENSO index (@ least that I'm aware of) that spans back into the late 19th century & is available in real-time. (hopefully that will change in the next few years... Similar to what followed in the wake of 1982-83 & 1997-98, an El Nino of the current magnitude is likely to provide a surge of motivation for ENSO research & many will likely be more lenient to the development of a new ENSO index.) Despite the dramatic uptick in the SOI in November, for the 3rd month in a row, the (adjusted/tri-monthly) BEST Index still set a new record high for SON, & was the 5th highest value (+2.464) for any tri-monthly period since 1870.

Climate Change and Millennials: The Future is in Our Hands
The COP-21 talks in Paris have attracted throngs of young people—and they're tired of waiting patiently for their elders to do something


Le Bourget in Paris is sizzling with youthful energy.

More than 40,000 people have gathered in Paris for the 21st annual Conference of Parties (COP21) in an attempt to address the growing threat of climate change. Among them are heads of government; business and religious leaders; scientists; and citizens of civil society. It’s a compelling display of collective action—and as you navigate the site’s makeshift walls, whimsical décor, and palpable sense of enthusiasm, close to half of the faces you see belong to young people.

Climate Change is the issue of the millennial generation. Millennials, research suggests, are increasingly driven and motivated by a sense of purpose. As the world’s greatest cities risk disappearing under water during our lifetimes, the call to save the world we know becomes more compelling. When we imagine our future, we fear a world that is thronged with climate refugees; where changing weather patterns threaten the food security of the earth’s population, which will likely reach 10 billion inhabitants by 2050; and where rising economic inequalities are exacerbated by the unequal ability of individuals in different parts of the world to adapt to climate change. While climate negotiators quibble over limiting the temperature rise to 1.5° degrees vs 2° Celsius, millennials understand that the problems of 2050 are already our problems.

We understand the stakes.

Yet perhaps, in a departure from past attempts to confront climate change, young people are also aware of our own agency to be a part of the solution. “We can’t wait for another meeting that leads to another meeting,” said a 17-year-old youth delegate named Brianna Fruean, from American Samoa, whose future is threatened by the harsh reality of the island disappearing under water. “We need to act now,” she said a panel discussion.

COP21 is a prime example of how millennials are taking ownership of the climate’s future. No longer passive observers, young people are participating in this year’s COP as members of official delegations, NGO representatives, and as part of a broader youth movement that has already created powerful momentum to tackle climate change.



And in a talk at the UN General Assembly at COP21 earlier this week, 15-year-old indigenous climate activist Xiuhtezcatl Roske-Martinez, who comes from Boulder, Colorado but who was raised in the Aztec tradition, summarized the achievements of young people to date, and ignited the hearts and minds of young and old alike:
“Everywhere young people are rising up and taking action to solve the issues that will be left to our generation … Over 400,000 people marched in through the streets of New York City in the world’s greatest climate march. More than 220 institutions have divested from fossil fuels with the help of student-led movements and the number continues to grow. Youth are suing their state and federal governments across the United States, demanding action on climate change from our elected officials. We are flooding the streets and now we are flooding the courts to get the world to see there is a movement on the rise and we are at the forefront, fighting for the solutions we need.”

It’s no surprise that young people are effective organizers. Climate change is a collective action problem, a problem we’ve been trained to deal with through Facebook, Twitter and social media. The Internet—like climate change—is a great equalizer. Hashtags like #2050startsnow, the motto of the UK Youth Climate Coalition, dominate the twittersphere. As COP21 kicked off in Paris, a new youth movement called Climate Strike organized walk-outs, film screenings and art performances worldwide. Working in collaboration with strangers for things that we care about is not a foreign concept; it’s a welcome challenge.

Young people also come to the climate movement at a time when policymakers have become increasingly aware that the solution to climate change does not lie solely within governments. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) homepage features a youth portal where people can organize and share opinions. Since 2009, COPs have welcomed youth delegates to the negotiations through the YOUNGO coalition—an international network of 2,000 young people that make up the youth climate movement. Its purpose is to empower young people with the skills they need to make a difference.

Beyond organizing, young people are also putting our heads together to come to solutions about climate change. Activists from climate change ask for three simple solutions: keep fossil fuels in the ground, transition to 100% clean energy and support the victims of climate change. The Commonwealth Alliance for Climate Change distributes policy recommendations and voluntary commitments, including funding proposals to build the skills of entrepreneurial young people starting low-carbon businesses.

Scotland’s youth climate group, and many like it, are organizing dialogues between youth delegations and government climate issues year-round—not just when COPs are in session.
The youth movement is not free of the politics and concerns that plague official delegations. YOUNGO—the official youth constituency at the United Nations—holds daily meetings that percolate with evidence of the North/South divide. In one meeting this week, delegates from Southern countries called for more drastic action and larger sit-ins in front of negotiation conference rooms, propelled by an awareness that their countries are more seriously affected by climate change than Northern nations. But even these disagreements are born out of a greater understanding of the ripeness of the climate issue, and our opportunity to influence the course of the world before it’s too late.

“In the light of a collapsing world, what better time to be alive than now, because our generation gets to change the course of history,” Mr. Roske-Martinez said. “Humans have created the greatest problem we face today, but the greater the challenge the higher we will rise to meet it.” His words, though spoken before the official UN delegates at COP21, are directed towards young people everywhere who are desperate to make a difference.
He speaks for all youth when he says that the future is in our hands.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.
Quoting 272. Abacosurf:


Capitalism along with the industrial revolution with the help of oil are one of the things that earned us that title.


While ignoring the trail of blood and lives that were thrown away like trash in the pursuit of greed. Capitalism and the industrial revolution were anything but nice and rosy. It was brutal and ugly, and like always primarily benefited the well off. Our way of life sits atop a pile of bodies (mostly immigrants) who suffered through short sad lives at the hands of their corporate masters.

It wasn't until relatively recently that countries realized having millions of starving pissed off people crammed into city slums, working like dogs, and getting paid crap might just cause a few social instability problems. Then and only then did worker's rights and social programs begin to form.

The US was a little slower to catch on. Then again, we always are. We eventually get it though. Usually.

The future of our country and its ability to address AGW will depend on free enterprise.


I'm not sure how you arrive at this conclusion, since it was "free enterprise" that effectively managed to delay taking any significant action in the first place. Corporations are going to do whatever gives the greatest profit. Capitalism and free enterprise have never been about "doing the right thing".

Entrepreneurs and their ability to create jobs that are beneficial to the economy and the world as a whole are all in store for us.
This is an opportunity not a sentence.


Do you remember leaded gasoline? It took decades and rather nasty set of trials before the companies involved in that travesty were finally forced to change.

How about asbestos? Or acid rain? Tobacco? Ozone depletion? Every one of these cases had companies fighting tooth and nail to protect their profit margins even in the face of overwhelming evidence that they were causing harm. In every case they delayed taking any action for as long as they possibly could.

I've seen enough of how the "free market solves problems" when it comes to things like this. We can't afford another 30 years of stalling and delaying just so a bunch of greedy sociapaths can add a few billion more to their banks.

Once the government comes in and puts the regulatory hammer down, then possibly new business will arise to fill the needs created by those regulations. But no company is going to do it on their own, especially at the cost of next quarter's earnings.
Quoting 290. Xyrus2000:



While ignoring the trail of blood and lives that were thrown away like trash in the pursuit of greed. Capitalism and the industrial revolution were anything but nice and rosy. It was brutal and ugly, and like always primarily benefited the well off. Our way of life sits atop a pile of bodies (mostly immigrants) who suffered through short sad lives at the hands of their corporate masters.

It wasn't until relatively recently that countries realized having millions of starving pissed off people crammed into city slums, working like dogs, and getting paid crap might just cause a few social instability problems. Then and only then did worker's rights and social programs begin to form.

The US was a little slower to catch on. Then again, we always are. We eventually get it though. Usually.

The future of our country and its ability to address AGW will depend on free enterprise.


I'm not sure how you arrive at this conclusion, since it was "free enterprise" that effectively managed to delay taking any significant action in the first place. Corporations are going to do whatever gives the greatest profit. Capitalism and free enterprise have never been about "doing the right thing".

Entrepreneurs and their ability to create jobs that are beneficial to the economy and the world as a whole are all in store for us.
This is an opportunity not a sentence.


Do you remember leaded gasoline? It took decades and rather nasty set of trials before the companies involved in that travesty were finally forced to change.

How about asbestos? Or acid rain? Tobacco? Ozone depletion? Every one of these cases had companies fighting tooth and nail to protect their profit margins even in the face of overwhelming evidence that they were causing harm. In every case they delayed taking any action for as long as they possibly could.

I've seen enough of how the "free market solves problems" when it comes to things like this. We can't afford another 30 years of stalling and delaying just so a bunch of greedy sociapaths can add a few billion more to their banks.

Once the government comes in and puts the regulatory hammer down, then possibly new business will arise to fill the needs created by those regulations. But no company is going to do it on their own, especially at the cost of next quarter's earnings.
Quoting 290. Xyrus2000:



While ignoring the trail of blood and lives that were thrown away like trash in the pursuit of greed. Capitalism and the industrial revolution were anything but nice and rosy. It was brutal and ugly, and like always primarily benefited the well off. Our way of life sits atop a pile of bodies (mostly immigrants) who suffered through short sad lives at the hands of their corporate masters.

It wasn't until relatively recently that countries realized having millions of starving pissed off people crammed into city slums, working like dogs, and getting paid crap might just cause a few social instability problems. Then and only then did worker's rights and social programs begin to form.

The US was a little slower to catch on. Then again, we always are. We eventually get it though. Usually.

The future of our country and its ability to address AGW will depend on free enterprise.


I'm not sure how you arrive at this conclusion, since it was "free enterprise" that effectively managed to delay taking any significant action in the first place. Corporations are going to do whatever gives the greatest profit. Capitalism and free enterprise have never been about "doing the right thing".

Entrepreneurs and their ability to create jobs that are beneficial to the economy and the world as a whole are all in store for us.
This is an opportunity not a sentence.


Do you remember leaded gasoline? It took decades and rather nasty set of trials before the companies involved in that travesty were finally forced to change.

How about asbestos? Or acid rain? Tobacco? Ozone depletion? Every one of these cases had companies fighting tooth and nail to protect their profit margins even in the face of overwhelming evidence that they were causing harm. In every case they delayed taking any action for as long as they possibly could.

I've seen enough of how the "free market solves problems" when it comes to things like this. We can't afford another 30 years of stalling and delaying just so a bunch of greedy sociapaths can add a few billion more to their banks.

Once the government comes in and puts the regulatory hammer down, then possibly new business will arise to fill the needs created by those regulations. But no company is going to do it on their own, especially at the cost of next quarter's earnings.
Great post Xyrus..I could literally fill pages on this subject...It would be very dark material to say the least..All true, and I saw it with my own eyes, and lived through most of it.
Good morning. It's been raining, constantly, for the last 24 hours over New Providence. The source is the same frontal system that produced the heavy precipitation over SE FL on the weekend. It looks stationary, so I'm expecting more of the same today. While it's been mostly light to moderate, this amount of rain is likely to add up to a respectable 3 day total.

At least we are also seeing some cooler temps as well.....
Quoting 279. Abacosurf:

An old Bahamian Mr Sands from 7 generations on Great Guana Cay with only 106 residents in 1999 asked me a question one day....How come you Americans are always in such a hurry? You go last minute to the airport, hurry to the store, rush to pick up the kids all in such a dash that you forget why you are even here. It's a question and a lesson that has stuck with me forever.
Yea...patience that's a tough one.
Perhaps interchangeable batteries or even better yet the perpetual alternator.
Sadly we Bahamians are also caught up in this rat race.... I was wondering about alternators in ECs.... I'm expecting somebody will eventually figure out how to get solar cells on the rooftops of automobile and other moving vehicles... It seems the most logical solution to the needs of long distance low emission travel.
Quoting 291. hydrus:

Great post Xyrus..I could literally fill pages on this subject...It would be very dark material to say the least..All true, and I saw it with my own eyes, and lived through most of it.
Nothing new here ... Slavery as an economic system lasted for millennia based on similar rationales ... Change happens with the same utmost feet-dragging feet-dragging attitudes ... Can we learn from history? I sure hope so.

I'm out. Have a super Wednesday!
295. MahFL
Quoting 254. Xyrus2000:



The batteries used in electric vehicles are almost 100% recyclable, so your argument fails there.


How are you going to recycle the batteries ?

"The United States has one lithium battery recycling pilot plant under construction in Ohio, though there are active commercial plants in Europe."

So, how does my argument fail ?
296. MahFL
Quoting 289. Patrap:

“In the light of a collapsing world,


What collapsing world ?
297. MahFL
In the mean time the next big storm for the Pacific NW is winding up offshore :

298. MahFL
It's going to be a wet storm :

" Although parent
low is originating from the Gulf of Alaska, it will be pulling in
a healthy moisture stream from the Pacific. PWATS will approach
the 1-1.25 in range which is near the 97th-99th percentile for
this of year. "
Quoting 296. MahFL:



What collapsing world ?

It is not a 'crisis'. It is the beginning of collapse.
Refugee crisis .

Some regions have entered that phase where the lights simply go out. Like Syria drought and the winner of 2006's Happy Planet Index, stripped by record cyclone Pam then record heat and record drought Famine! .

Pay attention to the Brazilian province of Sao Paulo.
It is next.

Your 'we didn't know!' will not work as pass for me. Certain climate refugees will not, by me, take any turn but last.
300. MahFL
Quoting 299. cRRKampen:


Your 'we didn't know!' will not work as pass for me. Certain climate refugees will not, by me, take any turn but last.


That website is strongly anti American.
Quoting 300. MahFL:



That website is strongly anti American.

I posted three web sites. Which do you mean?
Forget it, I don't care. Message value doesn't depend on messenger anyway. The info I posted thru 3 sites can be found on other sites including muricaphilia ones as well.
Unless, of course, coming up with facts is anti American as such - which could be true, but then I'm a dissident.
Climate-change naysayers better at war of words, study finds
Source: Reuters - Tue, 8 Dec 2015 20:47 GMT
NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Climate-change opponents are better at spreading their point of view than those who see climate change as real and troublesome, according to a study underlining the challenge of rallying public support as world leaders meet in Paris to discuss the environmental threat.
The naysayers did well at changing the minds of both liberal and conservative Americans in a study of about 1,600 U.S. adults conducted by Michigan State University researchers.
Respondents were asked to read fabricated news articles about climate change.
Half the articles had positive messages, such as the benefits of reducing climate change, while the rest were negative, such as suggesting climate change is exaggerated.
The positive messages had little or no effect on the participants' core beliefs about climate change, but negative messages prompted participants to doubt its existence, the study found. ...
Ireland's floods caused by Storm Desmond – aerial video footage
Aerial footage from an Irish military helicopter shows extensive flooding in the eastern and central Irish counties of Galway, Westmeath and Mayo. The footage was taken on Tuesday, days after Storm Desmond hit. Further rain is forecast to hit flood-stricken areas of Ireland and England on Wednesday

Cumbria surveys damage after Storm Desmond flooding – video
Families and business owners begin the huge task of cleaning up after floods caused by Storm Desmond. For some whose houses have been severely damaged, this is not their first experience of such flooding. Sixteen flood alerts remain in place across Cumbria and Lancashire. Further heavy rain is forecast for Cumbria on Wednesday

Aerial footage shows extent of Storm Desmond flood damage – video

Quoting 290. Xyrus2000:



While ignoring the trail of blood and lives that were thrown away like trash in the pursuit of greed. Capitalism and the industrial revolution were anything but nice and rosy. It was brutal and ugly, and like always primarily benefited the well off. Our way of life sits atop a pile of bodies (mostly immigrants) who suffered through short sad lives at the hands of their corporate masters.

It wasn't until relatively recently that countries realized having millions of starving pissed off people crammed into city slums, working like dogs, and getting paid crap might just cause a few social instability problems. Then and only then did worker's rights and social programs begin to form.

The US was a little slower to catch on. Then again, we always are. We eventually get it though. Usually.

The future of our country and its ability to address AGW will depend on free enterprise.


I'm not sure how you arrive at this conclusion, since it was "free enterprise" that effectively managed to delay taking any significant action in the first place. Corporations are going to do whatever gives the greatest profit. Capitalism and free enterprise have never been about "doing the right thing".

Entrepreneurs and their ability to create jobs that are beneficial to the economy and the world as a whole are all in store for us.
This is an opportunity not a sentence.


Do you remember leaded gasoline? It took decades and rather nasty set of trials before the companies involved in that travesty were finally forced to change.

How about asbestos? Or acid rain? Tobacco? Ozone depletion? Every one of these cases had companies fighting tooth and nail to protect their profit margins even in the face of overwhelming evidence that they were causing harm. In every case they delayed taking any action for as long as they possibly could.

I've seen enough of how the "free market solves problems" when it comes to things like this. We can't afford another 30 years of stalling and delaying just so a bunch of greedy sociapaths can add a few billion more to their banks.

Once the government comes in and puts the regulatory hammer down, then possibly new business will arise to fill the needs created by those regulations. But no company is going to do it on their own, especially at the cost of next quarter's earnings.

Ok...let's just sit back and wait for them...
They'll fix everything. YAy!
Whens the next meeting?? 6 years?? or is it 5?
Look at Denmark...It's a prime example of where we are headed.
The people are what make things happen. Not the Govt.


Quoting 305. Abacosurf:


Ok...let's just sit back and wait for them...
They'll fix everything. YAy!
Whens the next meeting?? 6 years?? or is it 5?
Look at Denmark...It's a prime example of where we are headed.
The people are what make things happen. Not the Govt.

Unrestricted free-enterprise profit-mongers put us in this climate change mess. Does anyone really believe they'll do a 180 and start trying to help us out of it from the goodness of their greedy little hearts?
Below temperature anomalies for Europe in December so far. And in German weatherblogs there is pure desperation for friends of winter weather, exploring the output of the models for the next two weeks. Same applies to ski resorts of course.



Have a nice day, everybody.
Quoting 292. BahaHurican:

Good morning. It's been raining, constantly, for the last 24 hours over New Providence. The source is the same frontal system that produced the heavy precipitation over SE FL on the weekend. It looks stationary, so I'm expecting more of the same today. While it's been mostly light to moderate, this amount of rain is likely to add up to a respectable 3 day total.

At least we are also seeing some cooler temps as well.....
A bit later now, and it looks like we are going to catch a bit of a break. The rain held up about 6:30 at my place and it looks like we will be mostly clear for the rest of the day based on satellite ...



More later.
Quoting 306. Neapolitan:

Unrestricted free-enterprise profit-mongers put us in this climate change mess. Does anyone really believe they'll do a 180 and start trying to help us out of it from the goodness of their greedy little hearts?


I wrote a brief blog on the topic, outlining the two main issues with a free market solution, including this. The free market is an amoral thing. It is not concerned with the well being and sanctity of life and on the other hand it is not a killing machine, its concern rests only with economic gain. Sometimes that is in concert with our own goals, and when it is it works beautifully. When it is not, we get situations like this. I think what bothers me more is the unwillingness of die hard free market proponents to admit when the market doesn't work or fails to do so in a timely manner, and by proxy, promote an unwavering commitment to an ideology shown to be flawed. That being said, I have no doubt the free market will eventually solve AGW if we did nothing, unfortunately, there would be a lot of societal destruction while we wait patiently.
Quoting 303. barbamz:

Climate-change naysayers better at war of words, study finds
Source: Reuters - Tue, 8 Dec 2015 20:47 GMT
NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Climate-change opponents are better at spreading their point of view than those who see climate change as real and troublesome, according to a study underlining the challenge of rallying public support as world leaders meet in Paris to discuss the environmental threat.
The naysayers did well at changing the minds of both liberal and conservative Americans in a study of about 1,600 U.S. adults conducted by Michigan State University researchers.
Respondents were asked to read fabricated news articles about climate change.
Half the articles had positive messages, such as the benefits of reducing climate change, while the rest were negative, such as suggesting climate change is exaggerated.
The positive messages had little or no effect on the participants' core beliefs about climate change, but negative messages prompted participants to doubt its existence, the study found. ...

This is also a natural human reaction, where we instinctively dismiss messages that are unpleasant or that suggest a positive long term impact can be achieved by short-term discomfort or privation. It's why so many of us [who don't have to be] are obese, diabetic or excessively consume alcohol. Notice how difficult it has been to get adults to pay for universal health care for children? Also note that while many religions have many nominal adherents, most don't get kind of "loyalty at the offering plate" or other service-related giving they [feel they should be able to] expect.

People who want to convince the unsure about AGW need to show their audience what's it in for THEM - not their grandchildren. Grandchildren may never even happen.
Quoting 307. barbamz:

Below temperature anomalies for Europe in December so far. And in German weatherblogs there is pure desperation for friends of winter weather, exploring the output of the models for the next two weeks. Same applies to ski resorts of course.



Have a nice day, everybody.


We are expecting 15 C anomalies over IL on both Thursday and Friday. Most areas should see highs at or above 20C. I'm a gonna have to mow again ... :/


IMAGE CREDIT. NWS LINCOLN IL

Most places this week through the next 5 days could average 10 C above the average. Just ridiculous warmth this fall and into winter. I'm only 33, but this is my first Winter here with December having green grass and only a couple of frosts to boot to go along with it. I'm not gonna complain though :D, Wouldn't mind a good snow before the Winter escapes the season.


IMAGE CREDIT. TROPICALTIDBITS
312. beell
Quoting 309. Naga5000:



I wrote a brief blog on the topic, outlining the two main issues with a free market solution, including this. The free market is an amoral thing. It is not concerned with the well being and sanctity of life and on the other hand it is not a killing machine, its concern rests only with economic gain. Sometimes that is in concert with our own goals, and when it is it works beautifully. When it is not, we get situations like this. I think what bothers me more is the unwillingness of die hard free market proponents to admit when the market doesn't work or fails to do so in a timely manner, and by proxy, promote an unwavering commitment to an ideology shown to be flawed. That being said, I have no doubt the free market will eventually solve AGW if we did nothing, unfortunately, there would be a lot of societal destruction while we wait patiently.


And at the top of the amoral (neither immoral or moral) list, Exxon-Mobil. While many big-oil entities are at least paying lip-service to AGW, Exxon is brutally honest in their assumption that oil will continue to supply 80% of the world's energy needs for at least 50-60 years.

Quoting Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson, with respect to renewables, "We choose not to lose money on purpose".

There is a cold, hard, free-market beauty in this statement that validates your opinion, Naga.
Good Morning Folks. Here is the Conus forecast for today;

And the current polar jet for the Northern Hemisphere; as you can see, there is very little polar air dipping down into Central Europe at the moment (allowing the warmer temps to dominate):



Top five wettest December vs current 2015 totals for South Florida.

So where is the cold air? It's bottled up across eastern Siberia and Alaska with temperatures to -50.
Remember last year, we had the opposite setup. We had the warm air across Alaska with the cold air down across the eastern U.S.

Quoting 316. CU89:

Member since 2008. Never posted, just read, watched and tried to learn a bit. I come to the site less and less now. Following the weather on this site used to be a bit of an escape for me. There have been some truly gifted forecasters that have come through here. In my mind, however, with all the name calling, this site has become tedious. I my opinion, "divide and conquer" should be left to the politicians.

"Where have you gone Storm W ...." That is all I can say.


He is probably googling images of women's feet as we speak!
Looks like bye-bye GOES East sounder data.


Sounder instrument anomaly investigation revealed that filter wheel
motor has come to a complete or near complete stop. Power cycle of the
motor windings has been executed for past two weeks with no observable
improvement. GOES-13 (GOES-East) Sounder IR data outage will continue
indefinitely
. Engineers will continue to perform Sounder recovery
activities. This is the final update for GOES-13 (GOES-East) Sounder IR
Data Outage.


Link
Quoting 318. tropicofcancer:



He is probably googling images of women's feet as we speak!



ta da da boom!!!!!!!
Would be nice to keep the the personal political opinions off the Blog and agree that we are on here to discuss the weather (and take a break from the politics and conflicts which we can discuss on other blogs or just turn on the news).

But will note that climate change has become politicized (Ted Cruz hearing yesterday in Congress) as political candidates try to scrape votes along "climate change" lines ............The lengths to which politicians often go, along social class lines (educated voters vs. uneducated voters), to get a vote is mind-boggling..........................
Quoting 321. weathermanwannabe:

Would be nice to keep the the personal political opinions off the Blog and agree that we are on here to discuss the weather (and take a break from the politics and conflicts which we can discuss on other blogs or just turn on the news).

But will note that climate change has become politicized (Ted Cruz hearing yesterday in Congress) as political candidates try to scrape votes along "climate change" lines ............The lengths to which politicians often go, along social class lines (educated voters vs. uneducated voters), to get a vote is mind-boggling..........................


i understand your viewpoint and while i agree with you political comments both weather and non weather related have been commonplace since the blogs inception
Quoting 322. ricderr:



i understand your viewpoint and while i agree with you political comments both weather and non weather related have been commonplace since the blogs inception


I understand that; just a reflection of the diverse group of folks on the Blog, and their personal beliefs/opinions, that often "bleeds through" when the comments become heated............................. :)
Quoting 323. weathermanwannabe:



I understand that; just a reflection of the diverse group of folks on the Blog, and their personal beliefs/opinions, that often "bleeds through" when the comments become heated............................. :)


I have to say, I would rather have the discussion regarding the best way to implement policy (if any) to combat AGW, than the tired old, "Is AGW real?" fake debate that often takes place. Discussing the role of government and politics in the policy process may become heated at times, mainly because we tend to be beholden to our ideological positions, however, I think it is a fair discussion to have. After all, this is what COP21 is about. Finding governmental solutions to deal with a problem that most governments see as the largest threat we face as a global entity. There are very real conversations that need to be had, and just maybe, someone will come out of it with a better understanding.
Quoting 309. Naga5000:



I wrote a brief blog on the topic, outlining the two main issues with a free market solution, including this. The free market is an amoral thing. It is not concerned with the well being and sanctity of life and on the other hand it is not a killing machine, its concern rests only with economic gain. Sometimes that is in concert with our own goals, and when it is it works beautifully. When it is not, we get situations like this. I think what bothers me more is the unwillingness of die hard free market proponents to admit when the market doesn't work or fails to do so in a timely manner, and by proxy, promote an unwavering commitment to an ideology shown to be flawed. That being said, I have no doubt the free market will eventually solve AGW if we did nothing, unfortunately, there would be a lot of societal destruction while we wait patiently.


I don't think the market ever would or could "solve AGW"; science might - perhaps with the market driving it or the market driving the solution. But I don't think that's what you really meant.

The problem with the whole free market/capitalist correction idea is we've never (at least in recorded history) had a truly free market so the theory can be tested. There have always been actions taken by power, including things society/government prohibited (murder, prostitution, drugs, alcohol, theft, fraud, etc) which impact markets and prices. The whole idea that it has ever been different is preposterous. People have ALWAYS recognized there are some costs that cannot be measured in money - risks we are unwilling to accept - damages we are unwilling to have corrected by money alone. So, the "Free Market" is not some inviolate great principal of Universal Truth. It is an economic reality, but economics are like all other systems; they are driven, at least in part, by the environments in which they operate.
While AGW is a top topic and trying to get off fossil fuels....

Houston Oil and Gas company Hilcorp gives every employee $100k bonus

This company is trying to keep it's employees and the industry alive

Sidenote: In 2010, Thompson said they received a huge bonus for reaching that same goal. She said they doubled the company in size and were all able to choose a $50,000 car or a $35,000 cash check
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic. Thank you.
Here's a good article worth reading:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/12/08/paris-c limate-summit-if-liberal-journos-get-their-wish-it -may-be-lights-out-for-billions.html?intcmp=hphz04
Oh my, it's a trifecta:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/12/08/future- climate-change-action-is-in-washington-not-paris.h tml?intcmp=hphz07
Quoting 325. VelexiT:



I don't think the market ever would or could "solve AGW"; science might - perhaps with the market driving it or the market driving the solution. But I don't think that's what you really meant.

The problem with the whole free market/capitalist correction idea is we've never (at least in recorded history) had a truly free market so the theory can be tested. There have always been actions taken by power, including things society/government prohibited (murder, prostitution, drugs, alcohol, theft, fraud, etc) which impact markets and prices. The whole idea that it has ever been different is preposterous. People have ALWAYS recognized there are some costs that cannot be measured in money - risks we are unwilling to accept - damages we are unwilling to have corrected by money alone. So, the "Free Market" is not some inviolate great principal of Universal Truth. It is an economic reality, but economics are like all other systems; they are driven, at least in part, by the environments in which they operate.


Sure the market would. From a simplistic position, once the costs of renewables made it more profitable to build the required infrastructure and switch from fossil fuels, the CO2 emission problem would quickly right itself with or without science. Fossil fuels are finite and growing increasingly expensive to produce. The problem here is time, if we believe the science, time is not on our side. I personally believe the solution will come in the form of governmental policy, in conjunction with other governments, based on sound science. And yes, that will drive the free market towards solution.

I do not disagree with your critique of "no true free markets" one bit, but for the sake of argument, my position was a basic argument without getting into the larger issues at hand. Once we start discussing power, outside forces, the true nature of our economy has always been mixed, free market principles guided by regulation and incentive. Not quite the laissez faire system some believe, but for our purposes here, the reality of that is not important. I also agree that "the "Free Market" is not some inviolate great principal of Universal Truth" as you put it, but rather like most things a social construct, just one that many people treat as that inviolate great principle.
332. MahFL
Quoting 328. Sandy82579:

Here's a good article worth reading:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/12/08/paris-c limate-summit-if-liberal-journos-get-their-wish-it -may-be-lights-out-for-billions.html?intcmp=hphz04


How is an opinion piece from Fox News "good reading" ?
Quoting 328. Sandy82579:

Here's a good article worth reading:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/12/08/paris-c limate-summit-if-liberal-journos-get-their-wish-it -may-be-lights-out-for-billions.html?intcmp=hphz04
I suppose it's "good" in the sense that it has a headline, and it breaks things down into paragraphs, and paragraphs into sentences, and sentences into words, and it contains nouns and verbs and adjectives and indefinite articles and prepositions and the like. But from a scientific/logical/humanitarian/common sense point of view, it's "good" only to those who are so ideological blind that they are unable to differentiate debunked nonsense from valid fact.

Out of curiosity: why would anyone post opinion pieces from Fox "News" in a science forum?
Quoting 312. beell:



And at the top of the amoral (neither immoral or moral) list, Exxon-Mobil. While many big-oil entities are at least paying lip-service to AGW, Exxon is brutally honest in their assumption that oil will continue to supply 80% of the world's energy needs for at least 50-60 years.

Quoting Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson, with respect to renewables, "We choose not to loose money on purpose".

There is a cold, hard, free-market beauty in this statement that validates your opinion, Naga.



I am no economic expert. But after years of working in Corporate America and enduring Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) audits, I can tell you that executives are now personally and criminally liable for the Fiscal Responsibility of publicly traded companies. And guess who they are, by-law, accountable to first? Not the employees, not the customers, not the environment, but the SHARE-HOLDERS! Change the law, change the profit opportunity, and corporations will willingly change course faster than any government or activist-shaming could do.

Quoting 328. Sandy82579:

Here's a good article worth reading:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/12/08/paris-c limate-summit-if-liberal-journos-get-their-wish-it -may-be-lights-out-for-billions.html?intcmp=hphz04

Opinion piece.

Quoting 330. Sandy82579:

Oh my, it's a trifecta:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/12/08/future- climate-change-action-is-in-washington-not-paris.h tml?intcmp=hphz07


Opinion piece.

Those aren't science and shouldn't be treated as such.

Quoting 329. Sandy82579:

And one more:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2015/12/08/climate -change-didnt-force-vikings-to-abandon-greenland-s cientists-say.html?intcmp=hphz07


And that is more evidence that the MWP was not a global event. Which is one of the conclusions the famous "hockey stick" plaeoclimate temperature reconstruction pointed out which left science deniers in fits of rage.
Quoting 334. DFWdad:



I am no economic expert. But after years of working in Corporate America and enduring Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) audits, I can tell you that executives are now personally and criminally liable for the Fiscal Responsibility of publicly traded companies. And guess who they are, by-law, accountable to first? Not the employees, not the customers, not the environment, but the SHARE-HOLDERS! Change the law, change the profit opportunity, and corporations will willingly change course faster than any government or activist-shaming could do.




This is right.
Quoting 312. beell:



And at the top of the amoral (neither immoral or moral) list, Exxon-Mobil. While many big-oil entities are at least paying lip-service to AGW, Exxon is brutally honest in their assumption that oil will continue to supply 80% of the world's energy needs for at least 50-60 years.

Quoting Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson, with respect to renewables, "We choose not to loose money on purpose".

There is a cold, hard, free-market beauty in this statement that validates your opinion, Naga.

They can say what they like, but there won't be enough oil flowing at a fast enough rate in 50-60 years.
@Patrap

I went to a COP-21 rally in a nearby small, western Washington town, and almost everyone attending had white hair. I wondered where the younger people were. There might have been about 5% under 50, and the biggest demographic was over 70 . Was this true at other US rallies?

Part of the problem in attracting younger people might have been in the way the event was advertised- or really, not advertised. It was put together at almost the last minute and I only knew about it by seeing the site referenced on this blog where I could type in a city name and see the local rallies. After the rally, I talked to a number of locals who had no idea it was going to happen.
Quoting 321. weathermanwannabe:

Would be nice to keep the the personal political opinions off the Blog and agree that we are on here to discuss the weather (and take a break from the politics and conflicts which we can discuss on other blogs or just turn on the news).

But will note that climate change has become politicized (Ted Cruz hearing yesterday in Congress) as political candidates try to scrape votes along "climate change" lines ............The lengths to which politicians often go, along social class lines (educated voters vs. uneducated voters), to get a vote is mind-boggling..........................

One of the topics Mr Henson discusses in his post is the Paris climate talks. Unfortunately, climate science has become highly politicized, basically by the same folks that have politicized geology and biology. It is therefore impossible to discuss climate science without entering the swamp of politics.
Quoting 225. JohnLonergan:

Greenpeace exposes sceptics hired to cast doubt on climate science

Sting operation uncovers two prominent climate sceptics available for hire by the hour to write reports on the benefits of rising CO2 levels and coal

An undercover sting by Greenpeace has revealed that two prominent climate sceptics were available for hire by the hour to write reports casting doubt on the dangers posed by global warming.

Posing as consultants to fossil fuel companies, Greenpeace approached professors at leading US universities to commission reports touting the benefits of rising carbon dioxide levels and the benefits of coal. The views of both academics are well outside mainstream climate science.

The findings point to how paid-for information challenging the consensus on climate science could be placed into the public domain without the ultimate source of funding being revealed.

More ...




Quoting 331. Naga5000:



Sure the market would. From a simplistic position, once the costs of renewables made it more profitable to build the required infrastructure and switch from fossil fuels, the CO2 emission problem would quickly right itself with or without science. Fossil fuels are finite and growing increasingly expensive to produce. The problem here is time, if we believe the science, time is not on our side. I personally believe the solution will come in the form of governmental policy, in conjunction with other governments, based on sound science. And yes, that will drive the free market towards solution.

I do not disagree with your critique of "no true free markets" one bit, but for the sake of argument, my position was a basic argument without getting into the larger issues at hand. Once we start discussing power, outside forces, the true nature of our economy has always been mixed, free market principles guided by regulation and incentive. Not quite the laissez faire system some believe, but for our purposes here, the reality of that is not important. I also agree that "the "Free Market" is not some inviolate great principal of Universal Truth" as you put it, but rather like most things a social construct, just one that many people treat as that inviolate great principle.


OK - perhaps given sufficient time for non-GHG-emitting alternatives to become competitive, perhaps the "free market" would solve the use of GHG-emitting fossil fuels, which eventually, over eons, might finally resolve carbon and other GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. I guess I could see that as a potential. I do agree the market can be manipulated (directly or indirectly, intentionally) or influenced (even unintentionally) in many ways, to bring about this result quicker. I just don't find the argument about the market adjusting everything to be particularly compelling, particularly considering the AGW argument when the big energy companies are propped up by subsidies and various advantages (including certain exemptions, practical or actual, from anti-trust laws) over their supposed competitors. It's just a dumb argument.

This isn't a black or white, zero-sum game we are playing. This is our health, welfare and the sanctity and health of our home. Again, there are some risks so high they cannot be estimated by underwriters, and there are some losses so great they cannot be compensated in money. I hope most of even the most ardent capitalists would not sell their homes and families to the crack dealer, regardless of price ? No. I'd certainly hope not. Well, maybe not to the crack dealer, but some might put up as collateral on the roulette wheel...
Quoting 341. VelexiT:



OK - perhaps given sufficient time for non-GHG-emitting alternatives to become competitive, perhaps the "free market" would solve the use of GHG-emitting fossil fuels, which eventually, over eons, might finally resolve carbon and other GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. I guess I could see that as a potential. I do agree the market can be manipulated (directly or indirectly, intentionally) or influenced (even unintentionally) in many ways, to bring about this result quicker. I just don't find the argument about the market adjusting everything to be particularly compelling, particularly considering the AGW argument when the big energy companies are propped up by subsidies and various advantages (including certain exemptions, practical or actual, from anti-trust laws) over their supposed competitors. It's just a dumb argument.

This isn't a black or white, zero-sum game we are playing. This is our health, welfare and the sanctity and health of our home. Again, there are some risks so high they cannot be estimated by underwriters, and there are some losses so great they cannot be compensated in money. I hope most of even the most ardent capitalists would not sell their homes and families to the crack dealer, regardless of price ? No. I'd certainly hope not. Well, maybe not to the crack dealer, but some might put up as collateral on the roulette wheel...


Agreed. :)
Quoting 332. MahFL:



How is an opinion piece from Fox News "good reading" ?


How is ANYTHING from Fox News worth reading?
Quoting 312. beell:



And at the top of the amoral (neither immoral or moral) list, Exxon-Mobil. While many big-oil entities are at least paying lip-service to AGW, Exxon is brutally honest in their assumption that oil will continue to supply 80% of the world's energy needs for at least 50-60 years.

Quoting Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson, with respect to renewables, "We choose not to loose money on purpose".

There is a cold, hard, free-market beauty in this statement that validates your opinion, Naga.



The free Market got us to 400ppm and I highly doubt it will get us down to 350ppm or less.

Yo,

He should learn How to spell, "Lose". First maybe?

LoL
Quoting 343. aquak9:



How is ANYTHING from Fox News worth reading?


I hear they have a nice home and garden section. Wait, I might have been thinking about Better Homes and Gardens. D'Oh!
Quoting 326. RitaEvac:

While AGW is a top topic and trying to get off fossil fuels....

Houston Oil and Gas company Hilcorp gives every employee $100k bonus

This company is trying to keep it's employees and the industry alive

Sidenote: In 2010, Thompson said they received a huge bonus for reaching that same goal. She said they doubled the company in size and were all able to choose a $50,000 car or a $35,000 cash check


I put in about 50-60 hours a week as a teacher and only make half of that (their bonus) in a year. What's wrong with this World?
On the weather front, the sun is coming out and we're looking at upper 70s today across S.W. Florida.
Quoting 223. Xandra:

America Is the Biggest Problem at the Climate Talks

"Asking Republicans for foreign aid to solve a problem they claim doesn't even exist would be like asking them to pay for gay weddings."


So is global communism the best answer to controlling AGW? I understand the attraction by those who would be in power.. but the other 7 billion people, maybe not so much....
Quoting 348. JNFlori30A:

So is global communism the best answer to controlling AGW? I understand the attraction by those who would be in power.. but the other 7 billion people, maybe not so much....


Who said anything about global communism? How come the only solutions posited are the extremes? it's not just either the invisible hand of the free market or authoritarian government intervention. The solution lies between those two positions somewhere on the spectrum. If done properly, we can preserve economic growth and be environmentally sound, the reality is that it will take some concessions to get there.
From the former Guv'na of California.

12/07/2015 | ISSUES
I don’t give a **** if we agree about climate change


I see your questions.

Each and every time I post on my Facebook page or tweet about my crusade for a clean energy future, I see them.

There are always a few of you, asking why we should care about the temperature rising, or questioning the science of climate change.

I want you to know that I hear you. Even those of you who say renewable energy is a conspiracy. Even those who say climate change is a hoax. Even those of you who use four letter words.

I've heard all of your questions, and now I have three questions for you.

Let's put climate change aside for a minute. In fact, let's assume you're right.

First - do you believe it is acceptable that 7 million people die every year from pollution? That's more than murders, suicides, and car accidents - combined.

Every day, 19,000 people die from pollution from fossil fuels. Do you accept those deaths? Do you accept that children all over the world have to grow up breathing with inhalers?

Now, my second question: do you believe coal and oil will be the fuels of the future?

Besides the fact that fossil fuels destroy our lungs, everyone agrees that eventually they will run out. What's your plan then?

I, personally, want a plan. I don't want to be like the last horse and buggy salesman who was holding out as cars took over the roads. I don't want to be the last investor in Blockbuster as Netflix emerged. That's exactly what is going to happen to fossil fuels.

A clean energy future is a wise investment, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either wrong, or lying. Either way, I wouldn't take their investment advice.

Renewable energy is great for the economy, and you don't have to take my word for it. California has some of the most revolutionary environmental laws in the United States, we get 40% of our power from renewables, and we are 40% more energy efficient than the rest of the country. We were an early-adopter of a clean energy future.

Our economy has not suffered. In fact, our economy in California is growing faster than the U.S. economy. We lead the nation in manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, entertainment, high tech, biotech, and, of course, green tech.

I have a final question, and it will take some imagination.

There are two doors. Behind Door Number One is a completely sealed room, with a regular, gasoline-fueled car. Behind Door Number Two is an identical, completely sealed room, with an electric car. Both engines are running full blast.

I want you to pick a door to open, and enter the room and shut the door behind you. You have to stay in the room you choose for one hour. You cannot turn off the engine. You do not get a gas mask.

I'm guessing you chose the Door Number Two, with the electric car, right? Door number one is a fatal choice - who would ever want to breathe those fumes?

This is the choice the world is making right now.

To use one of the four-letter words all of you commenters love, I don't give a damn if you believe in climate change. I couldn’t care less if you're concerned about temperatures rising or melting glaciers. It doesn't matter to me which of us is right about the science.

I just hope that you'll join me in opening Door Number Two, to a smarter, cleaner, healthier, more profitable energy future.
Plus, we WON the cold war decades ago.

We were there.

Semper Fi'
Quoting 346. Sfloridacat5:



I put in about 50-60 hours a week as a teacher and only make half of that (their bonus) in a year. What's wrong with this World?
On the weather front, the sun is coming out and we're looking at upper 70s today across S.W. Florida.
Thank you for your service! There are things in life that are of far greater value than money, and call me sentimental, but I do believe that a good and compassionate teacher can change entire families and their communities. And as you pass from this fleeting life to the next, you will get to take all of that love with you.. in contrast to the workaholics who will leave behind their mansions and yachts... imho
Quoting 349. Naga5000:



Who said anything about global communism? How come the only solutions posited are the extremes? it's not just either the invisible hand of the free market or authoritarian government intervention. The solution lies between those two positions somewhere on the spectrum. If done properly, we can preserve economic growth and be environmentally sound, the reality is that it will take some concessions to get there.
I just don't see how the changes that need to happen as quick as they need to happen can happen short of Jesus' return or a global military intervention. Industries are going to have to be nationalized in some fashion as (imo) the average share holder will never willingly allow for profit cuts.. even in light of overwhelming evidence that its the 'right thing to do'.
Chinese glaciers disappearing rapidly with greater flooding alternating with drought.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/09/world/asia/chin ese-glaciers-retreat-signals-trouble-for-asian-wat er-supply.html?emc=edit_th_20151209&nl=todaysheadl ines&nlid=46427363
Quoting 269. bappit:

We will never go to Mars. We have nothing to gain by going there. Tesla may go out of business. Their cars are certainly too expensive. We could do a lot more with solar power. Do our politicians have a handle on any of this? No. They are busy wallowing in the mud.

Cruz's campaign strategy "was hatched with Cruz's steadfast unwillingness to judge Trump after he memorably charged that some Mexican immigrants were rapists."


Maybe you do not know the company but it isn't going out of business any time. Their new battery factory and the new battery to store solar and wind power may make them more money than the cars. It is also tied to Space X, an Elon Musk business, that along with projects by Jeff Bezos are transforming space travel.
Quoting 327. auburn:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic. Thank you.


There is a difference between a blog that allows political comments and a political blog. This has become a one-sided version of the latter. You won't miss my presence because I seldom contributed to the discussion. I sure will miss the depth of information and insightful weather-related comments that used to be available here.
Quoting 349. Naga5000:



Who said anything about global communism? How come the only solutions posited are the extremes? it's not just either the invisible hand of the free market or authoritarian government intervention. The solution lies between those two positions somewhere on the spectrum. If done properly, we can preserve economic growth and be environmentally sound, the reality is that it will take some concessions to get there.


Exactly. This zero-sum fear argument stuff has GOT to STOP. Every good and real patriotic American knows this country was built, and has continued to thrive (where it has - my apologies to indigenous peoples, which is another discussion) on COMPROMISE. This revisionist history garbage spouted by people who have named themselves for a bunch of thieving and Boston Harbor-polluting thugs needs to be called out for what it is - divisive and unproductive, regressive and dangerous tantrum-throwing. Let's grow up and start solving some problems by coming together - finding common ground (thanks, Gov. Arnold). Surely there are some things we can still agree upon.
We are on Mars now and have been since 76'.

To think Man will not follow is like saying Columbus went on a solitary Mission and no one did follow...from Europe after.

It is silly.


#358

Perfect prose and suggestion.

Thanx
Quoting 353. JNFlori30A:

I just don't see how the changes that need to happen as quick as they need to happen can happen short of Jesus' return or a global military intervention. Industries are going to have to be nationalized in some fashion as (imo) the average share holder will never willingly allow for profit cuts.. even in light of overwhelming evidence that its the 'right thing to do'.


The profit cuts will be sure to come through doing nothing as well. When consumers cannot consume, capitalism becomes problematic. The focus for shareholders and corporations should be a realization of long term sustainability versus immediate profit. I know the economic sector doesn't like to be too concerned with long term goals, but they should be as the science lays out the different scenarios quite clearly. Is it possible to get that idea of long term sustainability as a reality instead of immediate profit, I don't know. Obviously as you point out, the alternative is much worse. Like I said, given the options someone is going to need to make concessions on their position. The average citizen has little to concede here, but probably the most to lose.
No worries the cold will come just give it time people

I say this early to mid December warm and/or mild late December will become cold Jan would be colder



I knew little about the details of global warming-climate change until I started to actively participate on this Blog which includes reading the main post and reading the links frequently posted by Dr. Masters and now Mr. Henson.

As I currently understand the issue in general terms (as a lay person), global warming in recent decades is a documented scientific fact. Second to that, the large majority of scientists worldwide who study theses issues have concluded that the very rapid pace of this particular warming period has been accelerated (and/or caused) by human co2/greenhouse gas emissions that can clearly be correlated to the industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels based upon scientific data.

So yes, as Dr. Masters is on the side of the science and the Blog reflects that belief; expect to be bashed if you are on the side of the minority on this issue. The issue is not one of your personal beliefs (for all the non-scientists on here or any public blog who are not actually doing the research) but whether you believe, or ignore, the large body of science (97%) in favor of the noted issues.

Just noting my observation.
Quoting 367. weathermanwannabe:

So yes, as Dr. Masters is on the side of the science and the Blog reflects that belief; expect to be bashed if you are on the side of the minority on this issue.
I've been a part of this community for a long time, and I've yet to see anyone "bashed" or banned for simply espousing a minority opinion. OTOH, I *have* seen numerous instances where a person with an ideologically-based agenda has come to this forum and started spouting thoroughly-debunked and discredited nonsense pulled from the cesspools of Fox or WUWT, calling scientists frauds and charlatans, whining how the country is sliding headlong into communism because a majority of people in it believe that corporations that pollute the most should pay the most to clean things up, and trying to battle a mountain of empirical scientific evidence armed with nothing more than an editorial in the WSJ or Forbes--only for that person to revert to endless mewling about how they're being "attacked" for speaking their mind when someone dares to question their sources, and talking about how the forum has gone to the dogs because of it.

Sigh...

So long as some insist on attacking science here, there'll be those of us to challenge them. That's just a to-be-expected-and-accepted fact...
Can we get a CONUS Jet Stream update here?

Thanx...
Also, we have no current blogs about the perceived "other side" listed in the directory here.


If you have a passion for the "other", why not lay it out in a blog there for the whole Globe to gander and awe over?


It is easy to write a blog..,easy as pie.


Be all u can be.



I like pie...
Quoting 367. weathermanwannabe:

I knew little about the details of global warming-climate change until I started to actively participate on this Blog which includes reading the main post and reading the links frequently posted by Dr. Masters and now Mr. Henson.

As I currently understand the issue in general terms (as a lay person), global warming in recent decades is a documented scientific fact. Second to that, the large majority of scientists worldwide who study theses issues have concluded that the very rapid pace of this particular warming period has been accelerated (and/or caused) by human co2/greenhouse gas emissions that can clearly be correlated to the industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels based upon scientific data.

So yes, as Dr. Masters is on the side of the science and the Blog reflects that belief; expect to be bashed if you are on the side of the minority on this issue. The issue is not one of your personal beliefs (for all the non-scientists on here or any public blog who are not actually doing the research) but whether you believe, or ignore, the large body of science (97%) in favor of the noted issues.

Just noting my observation.



Asterisk: 97% of 32% of the climate papers that expressed a position on AGW.

Link

Howdy all. I've been a lurker for the last 2 years....huge weather fanatic my entire life. Learned to read on the Weather Channel. ..those old, slow scrolling text. ..planned my entire childhood to be a met, was accepted to school and that summer met and fell in love with my husband to be and fell in love...and that was the end of that dream; ) In any case in my early twenties I made a decision to follow Christ and became an extremely conservative Christian. ..I think it's safe to say I'm one of the most conservative people on here. (I look Amish and belong to a church with similar beliefs, plus some technology)

Here is my point, I do not understand how there are so many people using conservative religious beliefs to discount global warming. ..."God's in control, so it's ridiculous to think we could influence climate; thus we must come up with shreds of proof to show our viewpoint" Not so my friends, not so. God allows a little thing called freewill....He has allowed everyone plenty of opportunity to destroy their own lives or to thrive dependant on their choices. That same freewill has been extended to us as a human race, i feel we are being allowed to be players in destruction of the earth as described in the book of Revelation. Global warming is part of what we observe as that process and will lead to other things described there...the natural disasters, and the political and social unraveling. Yes, there is tremendous evidence that it is happening and yes we are causing it. I find it so frustrating to see so many people unwilling to be open minded and look at evidence because they have a rigid belief system and have been fed the idea that global warming is impossible. Just wanted to share another and likely more unique conservative perspective.
380. MahFL
Quoting 350. Patrap:

Door number one is a fatal choice - who would ever want to breathe those fumes?


Door no.2 would likely be fatal too, electric cars give off a lot of heat, you might die of heat stroke, depends how big the room is of course.
Quoting 222. ColoradoBob1:

There are two doors. Behind Door Number One is a completely sealed room, with a regular, gasoline-fueled car. Behind Door Number Two is an identical, completely sealed room, with an electric car. Both engines are running full blast.

I want you to pick a door to open, and enter the room and shut the door behind you. You have to stay in the room you choose for one hour. You cannot turn off the engine. You do not get a gas mask.

I’m guessing you chose the Door Number Two, with the electric car, right? Door number one is a fatal choice – who would ever want to breathe those fumes?


Did The Governator Just Come Up With A Republican-Proof Argument On Climate Change?


As a Californian - I'm proud that a Republican Governor has been vocal about global warming. We get it. We're very interconnected with the rest of the world and we definitely understand how precarious our situation is/can be in the future.
Quoting 376. aquak9:

I like pie...



The force is strong in Pie.

wooom,..woooomh'



Quoting 378. canyonboy:



Asterisk: 97% of 32% of the climate papers that expressed a position on AGW.

Link




How many papers do you think express a position on plate tectonics, evolution, or the germ theory of disease? Once a position is solidified in the discourse it becomes redundant to take a position. Besides, Doran 2009 found 97.5% of actively publishing climate scientists accept that the current warming is mainly due to humans, Anderegg et al. 2010 finds 97% consensus among publishing climate scientists through survey, Oreskes 2004 found 75% of papers published accept the consensus position with 25% taking no position, the change from 2004, to Cook et al. 2013 highlights my first comment that as positions become solidified in discourse they are less likely to be explicitly stated in research. There are a few more out there, James Lawrence Powell's work found that in 2013-2014, 24,210 papers accepted the premise of human caused global warming with only 5 that reject it.
Quoting 380. MahFL:



Door no.2 would likely be fatal too, electric cars give off a lot of heat, you might die of heat stroke, depends how big the room is of course.



There is a formula used for that, and your premise is 100% wrong...even if the room was only 10 by 10'.

Math, it matters greatly.

: )
Quoting 354. VAstorms:

Chinese glaciers disappearing rapidly with greater flooding alternating with drought.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/09/world/asia/chin ese-glaciers-retreat-signals-trouble-for-asian-wat er-supply.html?emc=edit_th_20151209&nl=todaysheadl ines&nlid=46427363



Chinese Glacier’s Retreat Signals Trouble for Asian Water Supply.
386. MahFL
Global warming anyone ? :

"... Record high temperature set at South Lake Tahoe CA...
a record high temperature of 61 degrees was set at South Lake Tahoe CA today.
This breaks the old record of 54 set in 1976.
Records for this location date from 1968"

For sure the records only go back to 68, but still it was a whole 7 degrees.
387. MahFL
Hold onto your hats !

Lake Tahoe area.

"Ridge gusts up to 125 mph."
Lots of posts lately about agendas on the blog. Of course there are agendas. EVERYONE has an agenda. Your agenda is part of what defines you as an individual. On this blog, you can either fill up your ignore list until you only see posts that conform to your agenda or you can attempt to learn something from other's agenda. My $02...
Quoting 380. MahFL:



Door no.2 would likely be fatal too, electric cars give off a lot of heat, you might die of heat stroke, depends how big the room is of course.
The heat is generated by work, and is not enough to warm the interior of the car in cold weather even when moving the car. An electric motor running at full tilt but not moving the car isn't working much and isn't generating much heat. I doubt it would become oppressive in an hour -- maybe in a day or so. Whereas burning fuel produces heat, and pollution, whether work is done or not. Electric cars get a lot more heat than they give off, from people who don't have a clue about their technology.
390. beell
Quoting 344. Patrap:



The free Market got us to 400ppm and I highly doubt it will get us down to 350ppm or less.

Yo,

He should learn How to spell, "Lose". First maybe?

LoL


That was my typo.
:(
:)
Quoting 386. MahFL:

Global warming anyone ? :

"... Record high temperature set at South Lake Tahoe CA...
a record high temperature of 61 degrees was set at South Lake Tahoe CA today.
This breaks the old record of 54 set in 1976.
Records for this location date from 1968"

For sure the records only go back to 68, but still it was a whole 7 degrees.

Temps like that probably aren't helping build the snowpack
392. MahFL
Quoting 389. CaneFreeCR:

The heat is generated by work, and is not enough to warm the interior of the car is cold weather even when moving the car. An electric motor running at full tilt but not moving the car isn't working much and isn't generating much heat.


In that case the test would be a rigged test in favor of the electric car. When you do scientific comparisons you have to try to make the tests equal.
Quoting 373. Patrap:

Can we get a CONUS Jet Stream update here?

Thanx...


So hi!

An update on Mr. Pig - I can believe how much of a miracle drug penicillin was when it first came out. Three days ago his temperature was 105.9 (normal pig body temps are 100 through 102), the next day it was down to 103.6, and yesterday he was happily wallowing in mud, so I wasn't going to go fishing in the mud for his rectal thermometer orifice. :) Almost certainly feeling back to his old self, I haven't checked him yet today. But three days, going from almost pneumonia, coughing and whimpering to "OH HAI YOU BRING ME TRTS? KTHXGRUNTGRUNT" is pretty miraculous.

Now in the weather world - I'm trying to figure out what the storm has for us, precip-wise, here in ol' 89406. Forecasts are from .10" over the next two days to 3/4" OMG RAIN SNOW AIEEEE. We get dry-slotted a lot, and the models are not something I can make a solid guesstimate on. I need to get stuff moved around, and I have no idea what's in store. This frustrates me no end. Stupid weather.
Quoting 387. MahFL:

Hold onto your hats !

Lake Tahoe area.

"Ridge gusts up to 125 mph."


That's pretty typical for this kind of storm, the geology does funnel a lot of the wind. Our high gusts are usually higher than Fallon NAS, a couple miles away. Means some of the perishables at our WalMart might leave some gaps, when the trucks have to wait to make it over.
I have never tried to push my beliefs, whether they are proven beliefs are not on to anyone
I completely agree that humans do not take care of this planet like they should.

But,
When there are people that continuously push and diminish another person about a certain issue I personally do not see where it is right.
All I am saying if someone feels so strongly about something like AWG, then come on a blog and preach so strongly to get their point across.
I personally do not live my life 100% off grid. I wish I did
But I would never come on a blog and preach to someone else about how they live their life and how they are a AWG denier unless I did live 100% off grid
So, To the ones that don't pay an electric bill every month, Do not drive a vehicle with a combustable engine, those are the ones that can preach to me 24/7
Its like going to church every Sunday and listen to a preacher preach to his congregation about the Ten Commandments then go sleep around on his wife after church is out.
Nothing but a Hypocrite

Quoting 366. wunderkidcayman:

No worries the cold will come just give it time people

I say this early to mid December warm and/or mild late December will become cold Jan would be colder




I agree, the GFS is showing from the 18th onward into Christmas Week, the pattern turning colder with precipitation being around. We will have to watch this period closely.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 396. blueyedbiker:

>So, To the ones that don't pay an electric bill every month, Do not drive a vehicle with a combustable engine, those are the ones that can preach to me 24/7
Its like going to church every Sunday and listen to a preacher preach to his congregation about the Ten Commandments then go sleep around on his wife after church is out.
Nothing but a Hypocrite


Oh, dear; it appears we have yet another victim of the to quoque fallacy. Sorry, my friend.
Quoting 392. MahFL:



In that case the test would be a rigged test in favor of the electric car. When you do scientific comparisons you have to try to make the tests equal.

Wrong again. The test is to determine whether the person being challenged would choose one door or the other. The test also puts both cars on equal footing to verify their heat and pollution output. The fossil fuel vehicle could be either powered by gasoline or diesel, and the result would be the same. And as VAStorms pointed out, more and more EVs are charged by solar or wind, neither of which generates pollution in operation. Rigging a "scientific comparison" (which this was not) is mostly accomplished by deniers who ignore much of the hard data from the experiment. Note that the experiment referred to by "The Governator" is not a test of two cars, it is the uncontrolled tinkering with the living system of the Earth on which we all depend, which experiment will, unless stopped and reversed, lead to a seriously debased environment on which humans and all other life depend and which is deteriorating more rapidly every day.
Quoting 402. ACSeattle:


And "Huckleberry Finn" is "incoherent nonsense" because it it written in dialect?


They should read James Joyce.
Quoting 365. AZweather13:



Climate change is not a liberal agenda. It is a real threat that will destroy our planet and everything with it if it goes unchecked. There is overwhelming evidence supporting climate change to deny it. The only thing that keeps deniers going is anecdotal evidence. Looking at all the trends however, you can clearly see how climate change is already impacting our world. Sandy, South Carolina floods, California drought, Chennai. And this is coming from a self-identifying conservative. Wake up and smell the roses.
Lets get this straight, you say climate change will destroy this plant, how do we stop climate change after all the climate was changing long before man walked on this planet. CO2 levels have been a lot higher in the past, and so has the temp., but the planet is still here as was the life on the planet when the CO2 and Temps were higher. Thank God the planet is warming slightly, I would sure hate it to be slightly cooling instead. Please no more Ice Ages in the near future as this would be the end of the world as we know it, but eventually it will happen.
Quoting 396. blueyedbiker:

I have never tried to push my beliefs, whether they are proven beliefs are not on to anyone
I completely agree that humans do not take care of this planet like they should.

But,
When there are people that continuously push and diminish another person about a certain issue I personally do not see where it is right.
All I am saying if someone feels so strongly about something like AWG, then come on a blog and preach so strongly to get their point across.
I personally do not live my life 100% off grid. I wish I did
But I would never come on a blog and preach to someone else about how they live their life and how they are a AWG denier unless I did live 100% off grid
So, To the ones that don't pay an electric bill every month, Do not drive a vehicle with a combustable engine, those are the ones that can preach to me 24/7
Its like going to church every Sunday and listen to a preacher preach to his congregation about the Ten Commandments then go sleep around on his wife after church is out.
Nothing but a Hypocrite


We have.

: P

Us renaissance Men do dat.

407. jvlb
I was expecting more coverage of the COP21 on WUTV either from Dr Masters or Mr Henson. I understand wunderground has a delegation at the conference. I saw the coverage of the Senate committee on Science, etc. with Mike Bettis last evening. Perhaps my timing is poor? I like the show but usually can't catch the entire show.
joe verreau, KMIDURAN3