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An Unprecedented Thanksgiving Visitor: a Category 4 Hurricane

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:18 PM GMT on November 26, 2015

Remarkable Hurricane Sandra exploded into a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds overnight, making it the latest major hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere (November 26.) The previous record was held by an unnamed Atlantic hurricane in 1934 that held on to Category 3 status until 00 UTC November 24. Sandra is also now the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific (previous record: Hurricane Kenneth on November 22, 2011) or the Atlantic (previous record: "Wrong Way" Lenny on November 18, 1999.) Prior to Sandra, the strongest East Pacific hurricane so late in the year was 1983’s Winnie, which topped out on December 6 at 90 mph winds. Sandra is the first major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere that has ever been observed on Thanksgiving Day. According to WU contributor Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), Sandra is on track to become the latest landfalling tropical cyclone on record for Mexico, beating out Tara (Nov. 12, 1961). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for Sandra on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. VIIRS infrared satellite image of Hurricane Sandra taken at 3:15 pm EST November 25, 2015. At the time, Sandra was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/CIRA.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Sandra.

A rare Thanksgiving Day hurricane
Sandra is only the second Thanksgiving Day hurricane in modern records for the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific, and the strongest by far. The other hurricane was Hurricane Karl of 1980, which spun harmlessly as a minimal Category 1 hurricane far out in the central North Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day that year. Several other weaker storms have had NHC forecasters issuing advisories on Thanksgiving Day. This includes 1987’s Tropical Storm Keith, which struck Florida as a tropical storm on Wednesday, November 23, and persisted as a strong tropical storm east of Florida until midday Thanksgiving Day (November 24). In 1998, minimal Tropical Storm Nicole weakened to a depression east of Bermuda early on Thanksgiving Day (November 26), with advisories discontinued at 10 am EST. Nicole did get a new lease on life several days later, becoming a hurricane on November 30 and persisting to become one of just five Atlantic hurricanes on record during the month of December. In the hyperactive Atlantic season of 2005, Tropical Storm Delta roamed the eastern Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). And in 2011, a weakening Tropical Storm Keith well out to sea in the eastern Pacific prompted advisories on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). Prior to the establishment of NHC as we know it, an unnamed tropical storm dissipated on Thanksgiving Day 1953 (November 26) well east of Bermuda. Hawaii takes the cake for the worst U.S. hurricane-related impacts during Thanksgiving Week: Hurricane Iwa passed near Kauai on Tuesday, November 23, 1982, during the run-up to the “super” El Niño of 1982-83. Iwa caused one death and inflicted $250 million in damage in Kauai.


Figure 3. Projected 5-day precipitation totals (rain and melted snow/sleet) for the period from 7 am EST Thursday, November 26, through Tuesday, December 1.

Thanksgiving travel troubles in store across the Central U.S.
Some of the biggest impacts from Sandra may occur with a prolonged heavy rain episode in the Southern Plains, increased by Sandra’s remnants. The strong upper-level low settling over the U.S. Southwest will help pull Sandra northeastward, and the storm’s moisture will flow atop a very shallow cold air mass that will spill across the Southern Plains later this week. Such setups involving Eastern Pacific hurricanes are notorious for giving the region some of its heaviest rains on record, but they are far more typical of September or October than late November. Flash flood watches are already in effect from far north Texas to southwest Illinois, and localized flooding may become a major travel headache. Rainfall totals of 5-10” are expected from Thursday through Monday across north Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and much of Arkansas. These rains will fall over areas that have been doused repeatedly over the last few months. With 50.75” of rain for the year through Wednesday, the Dallas-Fort Worth area may well break its all-time annual precipitation record of 53.54” (set in 1991), before November is done.

On the northwest edge of the heavy rain swath, there will be a parallel strip with low-level temperatures cold enough for widespread freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow, from Thanksgiving Day into Friday. An ice storm warning has been issued for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, with some places expected to get 0.5 - 1.0" of ice.

Stay safe, everyone, and have a great Thanksgiving!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A Wetter,Warmer Atmosphere from Fossil Fuel Burning creates a reminder that thing's, they be a changing.

Rapidly.






Happy Thanksgiving Gentleman, and to all here on the wonderful blog. Truly is a blessing.
Enjoy Thanksgiving with your Family's Bob and Jeff.

Thanks for giving us the wunderground where everyone has a voice.

Quoting 1. Patrap:

A Wetter,Warmer Atmosphere from Fossil Fuel Burning creates a reminder that thing's, they be a changing.

Rapidly.








look at the outflow from this storm it still looks great. Is the trough inducing any upper level divergence? I'm sure Sandra will still be ripped apart but maybe that extra kick will keep it alive until landfall
Quoting 1. Patrap:

A Wetter,Warmer Atmosphere from Fossil Fuel Burning creates a reminder that thing's, they be a changing.

Rapidly.







Greetings Pat...She may be small. but she has some mojeau to be sure.

Quoting 1. Patrap:

A Wetter,Warmer Atmosphere from Fossil Fuel Burning creates a reminder that thing's, they be a changing.

Rapidly.









Damn, i wanna break the record of ACE of 1992. Less than 20 units to break this record and just 1 named storm away from the historic record : /. I wanna break this records!!!!!!
Imagine if this was round 25N and 85W in the GOM today and traveling?

2016 will not be 2015 in the Atlantic...,
burnt turkey i blame global warming and solar flares for this !
Quoting 1. Patrap:

A Wetter,Warmer Atmosphere from Fossil Fuel Burning creates a reminder that thing's, they be a changing.

Rapidly.




Happy T day! In addition to turkeys T can also mean thunderstorms. Look at that convection to the NE and east of her center where the warmer waters are. That really looks to help feed the gravy train to Oklahoma, Texas etc.
GFS deserves credit for nailing Sandra over a week and a half in advance.

And Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
thanksgiving weather 2015



thanks for lunch time read
I hope everyone Has a Happy, Peaceful, and Blessed Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving to my Wunderground family, may your day be blessed and filled with joy.

I do think of you all as my family as sorts ...I'm with you all more than I am with my biological family.

txjac
Quoting 8. intampa:



charcoal flavored turkey with a glass of lighter fluid to wash it down
for that true bbq taste
Quoting 6. pablosyn:



Damn, i wanna break the record of ACE of 1992. Less than 20 units to break this record and just 1 named storm away from the historic record : /. I wanna break this records!!!!!!

Tem calma, por favor. Vá a acontecer, é certo.
Quoting 8. intampa:

burnt turkey i blame global warming and solar flares for this !


I'd "blame" my big (red) green egg, 165 deg in the breast and some of the best turkey ever.
Thanks Gentlemen and Happy Thanksgiving to all the people on Wunderground....
Quoting 14. justmehouston:

Happy Thanksgiving to my Wunderground family, may your day be blessed and filled with joy.

I do think of you all as my family as sorts ...I'm with you all more than I am with my biological family.

txjac
heck I know my co-workers better than my biological family
double-heck I know more about the Dr who delivered me than my own biological family!
marry X mass every one
Looks like some significant ice accumulations possible central OK. Hope everyone gets to their destinations safely. Happy Thanksgiving wu-grounders.

Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thanks for the update guys....Happy Thanksgiving!
Quoting 20. PedleyCA:

Thanks Gentlemen and Happy Thanksgiving to all the people on Wunderground....


Happy Thanksgiving to All! Kinda chilly down here and when my fatazz got out of bed....the street was wet?
Quoting 22. Tazmanian:

marry X mass every one
marry X mas to u taz
Quoting 10. TropicalAnalystwx13:

GFS deserves credit for nailing Sandra over a week and a half in advance.

And Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!


Well........... even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Quoting 22. Tazmanian:

marry X mass every one


And a vary Happy New Year!
Quoting 8. intampa:

burnt turkey
i blame global warming and solar flares for this !

Clear case of "Global Roasting", I'd say, which is the next step of Global Warming if COP21 fails ;-)

Okay, I confess, I just needed a hook for the following article :-)

Pope, in Africa, says failure of climate summit would be catastrophic
Source: Reuters - Thu, 26 Nov 2015 17:18 GMT
NAIROBI, Nov 26 (Reuters) - World leaders must reach a historic agreement to fight climate change and poverty at upcoming Paris talks, facing the stark choice to either "improve or destroy the environment", Pope Francis said in Africa on Thursday.
Francis chose his first visit to the world's poorest continent to issue a clarion call for the success of the two-week summit, known as COP21, that starts on Monday in a French capital still reeling from Nov. 13 attacks by Islamic State militants that killed 130 people.
In a long address in Spanish at the United Nations regional office, Francis said it would be "catastrophic" if particular interests prevailed over the common good of people and the planet or if the conference were manipulated by business interests. ...

Whole article see link above.

Quote from the speech (whole text here):
In a few days an important meeting on climate change will be held in Paris, where the international community as such will once again confront these issues. It would be sad, and I dare say even catastrophic, were particular interests to prevail over the common good and lead to manipulating information in order to protect their own plans and projects.
In this international context, we are confronted with a choice which cannot be ignored: either to improve or to destroy the environment. Every step we take, whether large or small, individual or collective, in caring for creation opens a sure path for that “generous and worthy creativity which brings out the best in human beings” (ibid., 211).
“The climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all”; “climate change is a global problem with grave implications: environmental, social, economic, political and for the distribution of goods; it represents one of the principal challenges facing humanity in our day” (ibid., 23 and 25). Our response to this challenge “needs to incorporate a social perspective which takes into account the fundamental rights of the poor and the underprivileged” (ibid., 93). For “the misuse and destruction of the environment are also accompanied by a relentless process of exclusion” (Address to the United Nations, 25 September 2015).
COP21 represents an important stage in the process of developing a new energy system which depends on a minimal use of fossil fuels, aims at energy efficiency and makes use of energy sources with little or no carbon content. We are faced with a great political and economic obligation to rethink and correct the dysfunctions and distortions of the current model of development.
The Paris Agreement can give a clear signal in this direction, provided that, as I stated before the UN General Assembly, we avoid “every temptation to fall into a declarationist nominalism which would assuage our consciences. We need to ensure that our institutions are truly effective” (ibid.). For this reason, I express my hope that COP21 will achieve a global and “transformational” agreement based on the principles of solidarity, justice, equality and participation; an agreement which targets three complex and interdependent goals: lessening the impact of climate change, fighting poverty and ensuring respect for human dignity. ...
happy thanksgiving to my fellow posters on here
Thank you gentlemen for the report.
I'm sitting here amazed by what the weather has in store for us time after time this year.
Record Storms.
Record Droughts.
Record El Niño's.
Record rains.
Record all sorts of other things?
Makes me wonder what would happen if we returned to the old days with nothing much out of the ordinary?
Sort of got the kick off in 2005 and there's no stopping the roller coaster now it seems.
Who knows what "Big Weather" will have in store for us next?
Quoting 7. Patrap:

Imagine if this was round 25N and 85W in the GOM today and traveling?

2016 will not be 2015 in the Atlantic...,


Well, I wouldn't bet on it. The second year of the three strongest El Ninos on record averaged 0.16 C warmer, globally, than the first year. So, if things run to form, 2016 will beat the 2015 record by a wide margin.

So, I'd expect the MDR to be very warm, but I'm convinced other factors have changed in the Atlantic to suppress cyclogenesis, despite higher SSTs. Probably something to do with the more southerly polar jet stream.
Beautiful Thanksgiving here in S.W. Florida.

Bright sunshine and 80 degrees.
I've also got an ENE wind gusting to 32 mph

Add Amarillo, TX and vicinity being under the gun. Amarillo is already down to 35F and the icing appears it will begin earlier than originally forecast. Possible 1/2" with potentially higher amounts and wind. Stay safe peeps!

Quoting 23. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like some significant ice accumulations possible central OK. Hope everyone gets to their destinations safely. Happy Thanksgiving wu-grounders.


Quoting 23. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like some significant ice accumulations possible central OK. Hope everyone gets to their destinations safely. Happy Thanksgiving wu-grounders.




I lived just S.W. of Oklahoma City when I was in my teens to early 20s.
I always hated the freezing rain. I remember days when the temperature would be in the low 20s and it would still be raining/drizzling.
Central Oklahoma commonly gets the classic over-running of precipitation with just a very shallow layer of cold air near the surface.

Prior to living in Oklahoma, I lived in the Washington D.C. area for 16 years. In D.C. I was used to seeing it snow whenever the temperatures dropped into the 30s. On occasion we would see snow with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40 degrees.

For it to snow in central Oklahoma, the temperature usually needs to be well below freezing (and sometimes in the teens before you get a change over to all snow).

Source for updates.

With this current nice cyclone in the Mediterranean (which creates not so nice weather) once again a happy holiday to everyone in here (including Doc and Bob of course) with their families and friends, best wishes to Mexico with approaching Sandra, and a good night from Germany with no such Thanksgiving around :-(

Edit (just saw this) ;-)
Forget the pilgrims: Spaniards were the first to celebrate Thanksgiving
The Local (Spain), Published: 26 Nov 2015 13:20 GMT 01:00
Sticklers for tradition should really abandon the turkey and pumpkin pie, and instead celebrate with jamon washed down with Rioja, as new historical research claims Spanish sailors created the first Thanksgiving dinner.
As people all over the United States sit down to carve the turkey and remember the pilgrims who sat down for Thanksgiving in 1621 they may be surprised to learn that they are in fact celebrating the wrong date entirely.
The history books tell us that the first Thanksgiving was celebrated in 1621 by English pilgrims who had arrived in America on the Mayflower.
Now archaeologists at Florida's Museum of Natural History have revealed that the first Thanksgiving was actually celebrated in St. Augustine, Florida over 50 years earlier in 1565.
It was not the English pilgrims in their wide-brimmed hats who celebrated the first Thanksgiving, but Spanish explorer Pedro Menendez de Aviles and 800 soldiers, sailors and settlers. ...

More see link above.
Thanks doks!

Well, it's time to catch up. I have not been on for a while, mostly because my computer crashed and the blog doesn't work well on my NOOK HD+ (won't scroll down, quote or plus comments). Any way to fix that?

So, we have a major ICE storm going on in Texas and Oklahoma soon. Hope everyone stays safe.
Good afternoon and a gorgeous Happy Thanksgiving to you from sunny, cloudy, cool, warm, blustery Nassau, Bahamas. We have had a lovely day here so far, but overnight it was very gusty with some sideways blowing rain in my neighbourhood overnight. At least the rain is keeping the dust down .... :o)
Things are starting to pick up in Cabo San Lucas
Just a few light sprinkles crossing Florida today.

Quoting 22. Tazmanian:

marry X mass every one
are you getting one in early? LOL ....

Omega block off the West Coast, but jet energy building to the west for the eventual breakthrough, maybe as early as next week, or maybe later.
Quoting 34. yonzabam:



Well, I wouldn't bet on it. The second year of the three strongest El Ninos on record averaged 0.16 C warmer, globally, than the first year. So, if things run to form, 2016 will beat the 2015 record by a wide margin.

So, I'd expect the MDR to be very warm, but I'm convinced other factors have changed in the Atlantic to suppress cyclogenesis, despite higher SSTs. Probably something to do with the more southerly polar jet stream.

There's also that odd and persistant cold pool south of Greenland.
Quoting 22. Tazmanian:

marry X mass every one


You mean Christmas?
Quoting 1. Patrap:

A Wetter,Warmer Atmosphere from Fossil Fuel Burning creates a reminder that thing's, they be a changing.

Rapidly.







Yep. Raining here.


Next week's possible onset of heavier weather across the West Coast. Looking more like an El Nino pattern.
47 comments in 6 hours (about 8 comments per hour) - A lot of people eating turkey with family.

In my area, October and November have been pretty close to normal in precipitation, while temperatures have been well above normal on average.
Out to the garden. Broccoli missed by three days.. likely ready Monday Nov 30. New potatoes, (plants frozen to the ground so no more progress from here) sweetpotatoes, spinach, carrots, and lettuce for sides with the turkey (which I don't grow). Winter does not look in sight here in MD for at least another ten days.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...NRN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...PARTS
OF WRN/CNTRL KS...FAR SERN NEB

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 262020Z - 270115Z

SUMMARY...A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN ORIENTED FROM NERN NM NEWD INTO SERN NEB WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RATES GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HR POSSIBLE. A MIXED P-TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD.

DISCUSSION...A FETCH OF RICH MOISTURE ORIENTED SW-NE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ATOP A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK AND SERN KS AS OF 20Z...WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 100 NM. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD...GIVEN A STOUT WARM-NOSE /7C JUST ABOVE 1 KM AGL/ NOTED IN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. DUAL-POL RADAR DATA FROM KDDC AND KTWX CONFIRM THE MELTING LAYER ALTITUDE IS OCCURRING AT 2-2.5 KM AGL. RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH PER HR /LOCALLY HIGHER/ CAN BE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S F THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF THE NEAR-SFC COLD LAYER. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MIXED P-TYPE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM-LAYER ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HRS...SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE FOR SEVERAL HRS.

..ROGERS.. 11/26/2015


Current RAP Near freezing surface temps




FALL STORM SNOW/ICE/RAINS
Quoting 50. Sfloridacat5:

47 comments in 6 hours (about 8 comments per hour) - A lot of people eating turkey with family.

In my area, October and November have been pretty close to normal in precipitation, while temperatures have been well above normal on average.


September in DC was hot, not record breaking but hot.. 90thpercentile. October was normal. November has been unusually warm. Departures from normal have not been as extreme as FL which has had epic unprecedented heat for so late in the season. I keep wondering if the heat will work north more steadily but it hasn't this year. The incredible November heat to beat here was in 1975 and you know you're old when you remember the ancient records being set.
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015

VALID 00Z FRI NOV 27 2015 - 00Z MON NOV 30 2015

DAYS 1-3...

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

FREEZING RAIN...

AS AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK MOVES IN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND IS
POISED TO SURGE SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...AN UPPER LOW AND BROAD UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ARE COMBINING FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM OF THE EARLY
WINTER SEASON. SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RUSH SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE
A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL SEND BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG/AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND
EASTWARD.

RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE
WITH REGARDS TO QPF AND THERMAL FIELDS ON DAY 1. BY DAY 2 A
SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE GFS WAS SEEN WITH QPF...WHICH RESULTS IN
LESS QPF ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TREND BRINGS THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT...AND THE WPC QPF FOLLOWS
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THERMALLY THE NAM/ECMWF
ARE A BIT COLDER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE GFS. WPC FOLLOWED A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN...AND FEEL THAT EVEN IF THE NAM/ECMWF ARE
CORRECT THE MARGINAL TEMPS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE AS ICE THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GET.

THE END RESULT IS IN AN AXIS OF GREATER THAN 0.25" OF FREEZING
RAIN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE. TEMPS ARE MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT
COULD OVERRUN THE COLD AIR...DID GO WITH A SWATH OF GREATER THAN
0.5" OF ICE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE. WOULD EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS THIS HIGH WOULD BE CONFINED
TO ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF FREEZING. AMOUNTS THIS HIGH ON ELEVATED SURFACES WOULD HOWEVER
STILL POSE ISSUES. ALSO A BIT WORRIED ABOUT SOME ICE ACCUM ACROSS
THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST TX INTO ADJACENT
NM. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO
COOL TO JUST BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE AN
ISSUE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS. THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE WARMER...BUT THIS COULD BE A RESOLUTION ISSUE AS WELL...AND
WOULD PROBABLY PUT A BIT MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE NAM. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPS BETWEEN 30-34...HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
THAN 0.1" ICE AT THIS TIME. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...AS LOCALLY
HIGHER ICE TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.

SNOW/SLEET...

SNOW WILL ALSO BE A COMPONENT OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FIRST ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...DID INCREASE TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT WARM NOSE TEMPS ALOFT
COULD COLL ENOUGH FOR SLEET TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT OF
THE PRECIP IN THIS REGION...AND THUS THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS
SEEM REASONABLE.

ROUNDS OF MAINLY LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CO
ROCKIES THROUGH DAY 3. BY LATER IN DAY 2 INTO DAY 3 MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN GENERAL THE WPC SNOW FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WITH NO REAL STRONG PREFERENCE OF ONE SOLUTION OVER
ANOTHER. THREE DAY TOTALS DO END UP 6"+ OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN..WITH LOCALLY 12"+. ON DAY 3 SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAKE IT INTO WY AND WESTERN SD. AGAIN MODELS HAVE
NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AND THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION OF THE SNOW. EITHER WAY AT THIS TIME
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT...WITH WPC FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE OTHER REGION THAT WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN MI AND CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GENERALLY LOOKING A AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-4"...WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SEEN AMONG THE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE 09Z SREF SEEMED A
BIT HIGH WITH QPF INTO THE COLDER AIR. THE 15Z HAS SINCE COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE.


CHENARD
My broc bolted and I have meager pickings. Bell peppers lived through the freeze and I should get another bunch before the final curtain call. Sweet potatoes came out of ground in September. Barely put a dent in the supply today.

I have a hydrangea that is blooming again. East side of house. Gets morning sun in winter. Plant is as full as if it were June.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Quoting 52. georgevandenberghe:

Out to the garden. Broccoli missed by three days.. likely ready Monday Nov 30. New potatoes, (plants frozen to the ground so no more progress from here) sweetpotatoes, spinach, carrots, and lettuce for sides with the turkey (which I don't grow). Winter does not look in sight here in MD for at least another ten days.
22E/MH/S/C4
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

22E/MH/S/C4



Oh my God! Look this outflow! Gorgeous like Jimena D=
The celebration date for Thanksgiving in the "modern" era begins with Sara Josepha Hale, (October 24, 1788 – April 30, 1879) an American writer and an influential editor. She is also the author of the nursery rhyme "Mary Had a Little Lamb" and probably knew "Mary Had a Little Turkey" just wouldn't work.



Hale may be the individual most responsible for making Thanksgiving a national holiday in the United States; it had previously been celebrated only in New England. Each state scheduled its own holiday, some as early as October and others as late as January; it was largely unknown in the American South. Her advocacy for the national holiday began in 1846 and lasted 17 years before it was successful. In support of the proposed national holiday, Hale wrote letters to five Presidents of the United States: Zachary Taylor, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and Abraham Lincoln. Her initial letters failed to persuade, but the letter she wrote to Lincoln convinced him to support legislation establishing a national holiday of Thanksgiving in 1863. The new national holiday was considered a unifying day after the stress of the American Civil War.

In the middle of the American Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln, prompted by a series of editorials written by Sarah Josepha Hale, proclaimed a national Thanksgiving Day, to be celebrated on the final Thursday in November 1863.

Abraham Lincoln's successors as president followed his example of annually declaring the final Thursday in November to be Thanksgiving. But in 1939, President Franklin D. Roosevelt broke with this tradition. November had five Thursdays that year (instead of the more-common four), Roosevelt declared the fourth Thursday as Thanksgiving rather than the fifth one. Although many popular histories state otherwise, he made clear that his plan was to establish the holiday on the next-to-last Thursday in the month instead of the last one. With the country still in the midst of The Great Depression, Roosevelt thought an earlier Thanksgiving would give merchants a longer period to sell goods before Christmas. Increasing profits and spending during this period, Roosevelt hoped, would help bring the country out of the Depression. At the time, advertising goods for Christmas before Thanksgiving was considered inappropriate.

Republicans decried the change, calling it an affront to the memory of Lincoln. People began referring to November 30 as the "Republican Thanksgiving" and November 23 as the "Democratic Thanksgiving" or "Franksgiving". Regardless of the politics, many localities had made a tradition of celebrating on the last Thursday, and many football teams had a tradition of playing their final games of the season on Thanksgiving; with their schedules set well in advance, they could not change. Since a presidential declaration of Thanksgiving Day was not legally binding, Roosevelt's change was widely disregarded. Twenty-three states went along with Roosevelt's recommendation, 22 did not, and some, like Texas, could not decide and took both days as government holidays.

On October 6, 1941, both houses of the U.S. Congress passed a joint resolution fixing the traditional last-Thursday date for the holiday beginning in 1942. However, in December of that year the Senate passed an amendment to the resolution that split the difference by requiring that Thanksgiving be observed annually on the fourth Thursday of November, which was sometimes the last Thursday and sometimes (less frequently) the next to last. The amendment also passed the House, and on December 26, 1941, President Roosevelt signed this bill, for the first time making the date of Thanksgiving a matter of federal law and fixing the day as the fourth Thursday of November. However, for several years some states continued to observe the last-Thursday date in years with five November Thursdays (the next such year being 1944), with Texas doing so as late as 1956.

Credit: Wikipedia

Thirty days hath September,
April, June, and November;
All the rest have thirty-one.
Until we hear from Washington.
look at that pinhole eye! Could Sandra have strengthened?
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

22E/MH/S/C4



It appears that at least for now that Sandra may not necessarily be following the forecast and advisory script Re: NHC- Come what may I hope and pray that our Mexican Brothers and sisters are prepared for any likely impacts...May God's Grace be with them All.
Also, I Hope everyone particularly 'up North' had a Very happy and Blessed Thanksgiving today!
Quoting 31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I was wondering what would happen if I posted a painting of, say, an African-American Thanksgiving that included all the repulsive stereotypes we've seen of African -Americans? How long would it take for, say, a moderator, to see that, delete it, and ban me? I guess this is a case where unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people is OK though.

Pretty sad on an otherwise good day here.
Definitely deviating to the right and not a category 2.
looks like Sandra is trying too make a 2nd run too cat 5 and a 2nd peak



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 NOV 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 17:33:08 N Lon : 109:38:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 930.6mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.9 7.0
i say this is a bit too low i say its more like 130 too 135kt at this time but not 110kt


EP, 22, 2015112700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1098W, 110, 952, HU
Quoting 64. beell:
...
Although many popular histories state otherwise, [Roosevelt] made clear that his plan was to establish the holiday on the next-to-last Thursday in the month instead of the last one. With the country still in the midst of The Great Depression, Roosevelt thought an earlier Thanksgiving would give merchants a longer period to sell goods before Christmas. Increasing profits and spending during this period, Roosevelt hoped, would help bring the country out of the Depression. At the time, advertising goods for Christmas before Thanksgiving was considered inappropriate.
I actually remember the days when the first Christmas sales and the Christmas parade happened on the day after Thanksgiving. I remember the days when everything was closed on Thanksgiving. We were going to grandma's today, and I had a momentary feeling of panic when I realized we had less than a quarter tank of gas. That comes from the days when everything, including gas stations, were closed on Thanksgiving Day. Now, no problem, every gas station was open. I don't know where the chicken and egg comes into it, but I think there's a relationship between Walmart starting Christmas the day after Labor Day and most places being open today, including Walmart.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sandra was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 109.8 West. Sandra is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the north-
northeast is forecast on Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Sandra will move near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula Friday night and early Saturday, and then move
near the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a remnant low late
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sandra is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next 48
hours, and Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm Friday
night and become a remnant low on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

Satellite intensities definitely showing a rebound that began before the last advisory, but the nhc has been going with lower intensities than the satellite estimates for most of the storm duration. Kinda feel that the current organizational increase is undeniable at this point though Link


Quoting 70. Tazmanian:

i say this is a bit too low i say its more like 130 too 135kt at this time but not 110kt


EP, 22, 2015112700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1098W, 110, 952, HU
Quoting 68. HurrikanEB:

Definitely deviating to the right and not a category 2.
I think you mean deviated to the left. The eye clearing out and good looking outflow to the west side isn't the sign of a storm undergoing rapid weakening. OTOH, the east side is looking like it's starting to get pulled apart by increasing shear. We'll have to see which half wins.
I saw this in the OKC wx discussion I didn't know there was a tropical setting to radar. Is it unusual to use the tropical setting in Oklahoma in November?

BUT RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE
UNDERESTIMATING THE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND THE NATURE OF THE RAIN SO FAR... WE
ARE NOW CHANGING THE DUAL-POL PRECIP ALGORITHM TO THE TROPICAL
SETTING.
The Grey banding within the Former White Dvorak Loop shows it has likely peaked earlier and the Tops are warming as it slowly slides into the Cooler SST's.




Quoting 67. sar2401:
I was wondering what would happen if I posted a painting of, say, an African-American Thanksgiving that included all the repulsive stereotypes we've seen of African -Americans? How long would it take for, say, a moderator, to see that, delete it, and ban me? I guess this is a case where unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people is OK though.

Pretty sad on an otherwise good day here.
I just saw a family laughing and enjoying each other's company. After all the stereotypical conversation about pies, I thought it was nice to see someone outside the box (or from the box, rather). What makes you, a guy originally from Cleveland, think they really are Southern anyway?

Edit: FWIW, in Japan KFC is a really big thing at Christmas. (True, no joke. Of course, they make reservations to eat at KFC.) I guess Sar thinks it puts down Japanese, too.

I thought the people in the picture might be from Finland.

And don't give me the line "It is titled 'Redneck Thanksgiving'" either. They are too pale to be real rednecks.
Intensification likely has a large part to do with Sandra traversing it's highest ocean heat content yet. . .75. For comparison she became a hurricane near 50 and Patricia bottomed out just over 100.
Still a very impressive Major Hurricane in the FunkTop Loop.



Almost like a carbureted V-8 surging in RPM before fuel starvation...

Quoting 80. HurrikanEB:

Intensification likely has a large part to do with Sandra traversing it's highest ocean heat content yet. . .75. For comparison she became a hurricane near 50 and Patricia bottomed out just over 100.


Should begin to cool soon -- likely near it's "second" peak now
Quoting 76. weathergirl2001:

I saw this in the OKC wx discussion I didn't know there was a tropical setting to radar. Is it unusual to use the tropical setting in Oklahoma in November?

BUT RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE
UNDERESTIMATING THE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND THE NATURE OF THE RAIN SO FAR... WE
ARE NOW CHANGING THE DUAL-POL PRECIP ALGORITHM TO THE TROPICAL
SETTING.
Someone who knows the meteorology of this could explain it better, but dual polarization radar uses a setting for continental rain that assumes a large drop size and a higher reflectivity (dBZ) reading to indicate heavier rain. When continental rain is unusually heavy but the drop size is small, the continental setting will underestimate rainfall per hour and total rain. By switching the algorithm to tropical, the radar will read less reflective cells as having a higher rainfall rate and total, assigning a higher DBZ reading to the cells. I assume this is being done based on the observed rainfall being higher compared to the radar predicted rainfall.
Quoting 67. sar2401:

I was wondering what would happen if I posted a painting of, say, an African-American Thanksgiving that included all the repulsive stereotypes we've seen of African -Americans? How long would it take for, say, a moderator, to see that, delete it, and ban me? I guess this is a case where unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people is OK though.

Pretty sad on an otherwise good day here.


Well then...you oughta' love this one!
Quoting 67. sar2401:

I was wondering what would happen if I posted a painting of, say, an African-American Thanksgiving that included all the repulsive stereotypes we've seen of African -Americans? How long would it take for, say, a moderator, to see that, delete it, and ban me? I guess this is a case where unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people is OK though.

Pretty sad on an otherwise good day here.
don't take offense sar the intent was to show an alternate thanksgiving I actually know people up here that do eat out for the holidays and it was too show no matter how its celebrated its done with smiles good times and with friends and family



TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 - DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time: 0400 UTC Thursday 26th November 2015.
Next Issue: 0400 UTC Friday 27th November 2015.
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region in each of the next three days, TILL 29th
November, 2015:
Tropical Depression TD03F was located near 10.2S 179.6E at 260000 UTC. Position Poor.
The Potential for TD03F to develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next three days is given
below.
Friday 27th November
TD03F is expected to remain slow moving within the shaded area. The probability of TD03F to
develop tropical cyclone is MODERATE. The probability of another Tropical Cyclone
formation in the area is Very Low.



More info here
Quoting 83. sar2401:

Someone who knows the meteorology of this could explain it better, but dual polarization radar uses a setting for continental rain that assumes a large drop size and a higher reflectivity (dBZ) reading to indicate heavier rain. When continental rain is unusually heavy but the drop size is small, the continental setting will underestimate rainfall per hour and total rain. By switching the algorithm to tropical, the radar will read less reflective cells as having a higher rainfall rate and total, assigning a higher DBZ reading to the cells. I assume this is being done based on the observed rainfall being higher compared to the radar predicted rainfall.


Dual-pol ZDR would suggest these are large raindrops-common in tropical rainfall ADDED: Especially along the Red River and southeast and south-central OK. But as far as the use of the tropical ZDR...yes, higher radar estimates from lower reflectivities.
An Unprecedented Thanksgiving Visitor: a Category 4 Hurricane

As a system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes.
Humankind’s Last Days Below 400 PPM CO2?

Another ominous milestone fades away in the smog behind us…

By mid November of 2015, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory had again risen above 400 parts per million. Over the past two weeks, these levels maintained. And even though we may see a few days during which CO2 levels drop below that key threshold during late November and, perhaps, early December, those days could well be the last.


Link
91. vis0
With so many records broken by TS/HURR (pTwF**) SANDRA to me the one that stands out is::

(Line 9)"Sandra is on track to become the latest landfalling tropical cyclone on record for Mexico, beating out Tara (Nov. 12, 1961)."

If it maintains is TS characteristics then think, as at this time cooler air over land is beginning to take hold and even go off shore to cause TS to die if the TS get close to shore or the air currents of cooler heavier air wins so TS re-curve  out to deeper sea(s).

Here is where one can start seeing aGW effects NOT as to the storm being a TS...(to lower confusion continue at the next "...")


 (we need another generation of sophisticated devices as satellites to be able to specifically "read" the intake of any LOW to see if any LOW / front is tapping into /  building its rotation / energy specifically from aGW, one of mu old clues was as to the use of laser and measuring THE CHANGING not the INDIVIDUAL elements as the water molecule should be denser w/o it measuring as denser DURING the changing and specific resonances via laser i think will show that but i could be 99.9 % wrong after all that theory was from my JHS science report in the 1970s and was one of 3 devices i really want to get Mr John Hope to study why it was "acronymed" H.O.P.E. in a 1992 paper i sent The Weather Channel.  BTW on a semi-related subject my "PAtrap" acronym i had on my now deleted blog which in reading my captures of those pages i noticed i forgot to explain why PAtrap. It was for "Pulsing Amplifications trap" as to a design in clothing and helmets that i state can lower concussions in sports and depressions as to where loud sounds and lasers are used, as in wars that i state reverse the way the brain stores "bad" memories which lead to constant mood swings. Yes it was named as i response to Patraps good word...BACK TO THE TS SANDRA)


...but that warmer air from the ocean, in part from ENSO but also from aGW is allowing for the warmer air to compete with the heavier cooler air by the warmer air being able to replenish itself much faster. That replenishing much faster ability i think is more of the added aGW pool of heat than just a strong ENSO.

TO ME, if it where ENSO warmth only influencing the weather around TS SANDRA you'd see a strong push of warmer air following by a "watered down" rebound effect as cooler air might push back.  By "watered down" cooler air i mean in that it would be cooler air warmed a bit by a strong ENSO. 

In this crappy visual, "warmer" is symbolized by parenthesis as  ") ",  while rebounding cooler air is spelled out.

   ) ..rebounding cooler...) ..rebounding cooler...)..) ..rebounding cooler..............) ..rebounding cooler........)


But with the added aGW its as if behind each ENSO influenced warmer air there are many mini pulses of warmer air quietly reinforcing TS SANDRA surrounding to support a TS's motion toward land

In this crappy visual "warmer" is symbolized by parenthesis as  ") ",   the mini pules due to aGW are dashes "-" while rebounding cooler air is spelled out.

)----) ..rebounding cooler...)-----) ---)-------)

Notice the time between warmer air where "rebounding cooler" occurs is shorter when its ENSO w/ aGW versus only a strong warmer ENSO influence.

In the end ENSO aGW are allowing flows to last longer and in time these flows will cause long term changes that disturb man ability to maintain a schedule as to when to plant-harvest via the predict of weather.  aGW is NOT a good thing for creating a stable environment, which is what allowed mankind to thrive as we became more intelligent as mankind learned by observing the stable environment and understood there are periods of extreme weather but they on a healthy planet these extremes occurred far apart enough from each other to allow mankind to build things as long term communities to even religious beliefs.

Religious beliefs?? How?

 FIRST LET ME STATE THAT DEEP MEDITATION OR PRAYER CAN HELP, BUT IMHO mainly in  TAPPING INWARDLY INTO ONES BRAIN TO GAIN OR SHARE WISDOM NOT MOVING PHYSICAL OBJECTS AS STORMS THAT GENERATE SO MUCH ENERGY THAT THE STORMS CAN BE DESCRIBED BY USING THE ENERGY OF MANY ATOMIC BOMBS AS TO THEIR FORCE. AS IN FIRST TEACH THE POOR OR UNEDUCATED,  THEN IF ONE CANNOT DIRECTLY COMMUNICATE WITH THOSE PEOPLE PRAY THAT THEY USE THAT KNOWLEDGE.  That prayer might trigger some people to think from within, but that type of prayer does not have religious connections as it the unconditional prayer that "travels" furthest as it carries less "baggage" (negativity)  therefore can flow the furthest.

So how can aGW  influence beliefs?
Think. If in years past one "prayed to a gawd(s)" to bring "good" weather and the weather patterns/climate is stable enough so the weather is only stormy as in "bad for the harvest" 1 of every7 to 8 years, one began to believe that their prayer connected with the gawd(s) that controlled storms, cause one had 6 good years.

Now imagine the same person praying for good harvest weather in 20-30 yrs and aGW's influence becomes so strong it leads to quick reinforcements of weather extremes as 1 in 500 year droughts & floods only 2-3 years apart. That person is going to think that the gawd(s) are not hearing them cause there is no "stability" in weather patterns as aGW becomes a forcing whose oscillation stays more ON the OFF.

So for religious leaders it pays that you all chip in and inform your members to help and clean up Earth so prayers do not appear to fall on the ears of an uncaring gawd?

Of course i believe it is ALWAYS up to the complex animal (humans on Earth for now) whom has its conscience disconnected / independent from the complex planet and have matured enough to make the intelligent decision based on what that complex animal knows. On earth Humans already know that co2s build up at the rate its going is not good,  PERIOD.

Now what? Delay and destroy the odds for humanity to continue after 2200AD  or Act and aid in helping.

2200AD seems far away?, not as far as those you read about that sailed on ships that landed at Plymouth rock.

--footnotes--
**IN MY BOOK (or nutty brain, postiveTropicalWeatherFormation includes all stages of a tropical/warm core LOW, by all i even include influences of waves from the edge of Earth-Space that i state influence weather on Earth (complex planet)

my Thanksgiving gift to humanity, feel free to use any of my words without permission.

back to observing & learning,  its really fun just like you observed as a youngster and learned how to drive a car  or play baseball or any sport, try it! What do you have to lose but boredom.
Maybe we will get a 95mph storm at landfall.
Quoting 64. beell:

The celebration date for Thanksgiving in the "modern" era begins with Sara Josepha Hale, (October 24, 1788 %u2013 April 30, 1879) an American writer and an influential editor. She is also the author of the nursery rhyme "Mary Had a Little Lamb" and probably knew "Mary Had a Little Turkey" just wouldn't work.



Hale may be the individual most responsible for making Thanksgiving a national holiday in the United States; it had previously been celebrated only in New England. Each state scheduled its own holiday, some as early as October and others as late as January; it was largely unknown in the American South. Her advocacy for the national holiday began in 1846 and lasted 17 years before it was successful. In support of the proposed national holiday, Hale wrote letters to five Presidents of the United States: Zachary Taylor, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and Abraham Lincoln. Her initial letters failed to persuade, but the letter she wrote to Lincoln convinced him to support legislation establishing a national holiday of Thanksgiving in 1863. The new national holiday was considered a unifying day after the stress of the American Civil War.

In the middle of the American Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln, prompted by a series of editorials written by Sarah Josepha Hale, proclaimed a national Thanksgiving Day, to be celebrated on the final Thursday in November 1863.

Abraham Lincoln's successors as president followed his example of annually declaring the final Thursday in November to be Thanksgiving. But in 1939, President Franklin D. Roosevelt broke with this tradition. November had five Thursdays that year (instead of the more-common four), Roosevelt declared the fourth Thursday as Thanksgiving rather than the fifth one. Although many popular histories state otherwise, he made clear that his plan was to establish the holiday on the next-to-last Thursday in the month instead of the last one. With the country still in the midst of The Great Depression, Roosevelt thought an earlier Thanksgiving would give merchants a longer period to sell goods before Christmas. Increasing profits and spending during this period, Roosevelt hoped, would help bring the country out of the Depression. At the time, advertising goods for Christmas before Thanksgiving was considered inappropriate.

Republicans decried the change, calling it an affront to the memory of Lincoln. People began referring to November 30 as the "Republican Thanksgiving" and November 23 as the "Democratic Thanksgiving" or "Franksgiving". Regardless of the politics, many localities had made a tradition of celebrating on the last Thursday, and many football teams had a tradition of playing their final games of the season on Thanksgiving; with their schedules set well in advance, they could not change. Since a presidential declaration of Thanksgiving Day was not legally binding, Roosevelt's change was widely disregarded. Twenty-three states went along with Roosevelt's recommendation, 22 did not, and some, like Texas, could not decide and took both days as government holidays.

On October 6, 1941, both houses of the U.S. Congress passed a joint resolution fixing the traditional last-Thursday date for the holiday beginning in 1942. However, in December of that year the Senate passed an amendment to the resolution that split the difference by requiring that Thanksgiving be observed annually on the fourth Thursday of November, which was sometimes the last Thursday and sometimes (less frequently) the next to last. The amendment also passed the House, and on December 26, 1941, President Roosevelt signed this bill, for the first time making the date of Thanksgiving a matter of federal law and fixing the day as the fourth Thursday of November. However, for several years some states continued to observe the last-Thursday date in years with five November Thursdays (the next such year being 1944), with Texas doing so as late as 1956.

Credit: Wikipedia

Thirty days hath September,
April, June, and November;
All the rest have thirty-one.
Until we hear from Washington.


The Spaniards were the first settlers in the land that is called today USA. Is also historically correct that the first Thanksgiving occurred in 1565 at the catholic mission of San Agustin, there they had a celebration, for a successful year, ,and was bless by the "Augustine's' Fathers" or priest with a Catholic Mass. Those are facts. The Spanish discovered Florida with the help of the Taino Indians of Boriken, today's Puerto Rico, during the spring of 1511. When they convinced Juan Ponce de Leon, the first governor of Puerto Rico. that they knew about a place where there was a fountain of Youth. When he saw this land, he named it : ''La tierra Florida", or the land full o flowers. the rest is history.
Quoting 85. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

don't take offense sar the intent was to show an alternate thanksgiving I actually know people up here that do eat out for the holidays and it was too show no matter how its celebrated its done with smiles good times and with friends and family




No, it was offensive to me and, I suspect, a lot of other Southerners. There are equally offensive things out there about Canucks, but I wouldn't post them on Canadian Thanksgiving out of respect to you and the other Canadians here. I expected better from you.
Quoting 94. HuracanTaino:


The Spaniards were the first settlers in the land that is called today USA. Is also historically correct that the first Thanksgiving occurred in 1565 in the catholic mission of San Agustin, there they had a celebration, since they had a successful year, ,and was bless by the "Augustine's' Fathers" or priest with a Catholic Mass. Those are facts. The Spanish discover Florida with the help of the Taino Indians of Boriken, today's Puerto Rico, during the spring of 1511. When they convinced Juan Ponce de Leon, that the knew a place where there was a fountain of Youth. When he saw this land, he named it : ''La tierra Florida", or the land full o flowers. the rest is history.


Thanks for taking on that part of the story. The history of the Thanksgiving celebration begins to diverge from that point. Which is why I limited my cut n' paste to the last 100 years or so and led off with the historical delimiter "The celebration date for Thanksgiving in the "modern" era".

It was long enough already, lol.
:)
Quoting 84. beell:



Well then...you oughta' love this one!
Just one more reason I dislike a lot of country music. But at least Keen lived in south Texas, not south Canada.
Quoting 93. MeteorologistTV:

Maybe we will get a 95mph storm at landfall.
I don't think Sandra will make landfall in Baja. It certainly won't a 95 mph hurricane when it makes landfall in Sinaloa.
Quoting 95. sar2401:

No, it was offensive to me and, I suspect, a lot of other Southerners. There are equally offensive things out there about Canucks, but I wouldn't post them on Canadian Thanksgiving out of respect to you and the other Canadians here. I expected better from you.


I'm not offended by it, although it takes a lot to get to me. I'm confused about the KFC though, all my black friends are rabid about KFC, one would think it would be more fitting towards them? *shrugs* Would make more sense if you could see the feathers of a recently killed wild turkey. :-)

The picture itself is horribly wrong in many aspects, but nothing to get tied into a knot over. Already have to deal with my friends at school "dumbing things down for the southern kid" even though I get the higher grades generally.

Then again, I just woke up from a food coma. I'm sure if the situation was already tense with suspect banning I would be using that pic as leverage, lol.
Two-faced Exxon: the misinformation campaign against its own scientists

100% global warming consensus in Exxon scientists’ research contrasted its $31m campaign to cast doubt on that consensus

Link

$31m campaign to cast doubt, a drop in their bucket
101. beell
Quoting 97. sar2401:

Just one more reason I dislike a lot of country music. But at least Keen lived in south Texas, not south Canada.


Oh well. Sorry, sar. Point taken about whether you or I would get a ban out of it. But if a mod posts it, it's open season. Go find some offensive Canadian stereotypes. Quick! Time is running out!

The original Norman Rockwell is titled "Freedom from want". Half the world's population couldn't afford a bucket of that fried chicken. So...I guess that southern family is doing pretty good.
Quoting 95. sar2401:

No, it was offensive to me and, I suspect, a lot of other Southerners. There are equally offensive things out there about Canucks, but I wouldn't post them on Canadian Thanksgiving out of respect to you and the other Canadians here. I expected better from you.


Ah, the old Southern Inferiority Complex.

There are papers on this :

"Why Do They Live There? How the White Southern Inferiority Complex Shaped Modern America,"
University of Texas at Austin, May 2008.

Journalist W. J. Cash’s “Savage Ideal,” historian Sheldon Hackney’s “siege-mentality,” literary critic Fred Hobson’s “rage to explain,” and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.‘s “Drum Major Instinct,” all describe the same regional disorder: a deep and enduring Inferiority Complex that underlies the culture of the American South.

Link
Sar probably gets offended by lists of "You know you're from east Texas if ... ". Of course, the people who make those lists are from east Texas, I do believe.
Quoting 101. beell:
Oh well. Sorry, sar. Point taken about whether you or I would get a ban out of it. But if a mod posts it, it's open season. Go find some offensive Canadian stereotypes. Quick! Time is running out!

The original Norman Rockwell is titled "Freedom from want". Half the world's population couldn't afford a bucket of that fried chicken. So...I guess that southern family is doing pretty good.
I bet they are from Minnesota.
Back to the real world -

Climate COPs

Well, COP21 is upon us, and of course, I have made it through about half of what I intended to make it through. My original plan was to go through all the climate-change papers I could find with Exxon authors, then write a little about technology, then a list of what I see as changes in the scientific literature that make 2015 different from 2009. But, the day job and other worthwhile diversions leave me, once again, with the burnt out skeleton frames of good intentions that line my path.

So, for the record-

This is a continuation of a series preparing for The Conference of the Parties - 21 (COP21) in Paris. COP21 is the next of the annual meetings that are part of the governing body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

My theme, expressed in the first blog in the series, is how things might be different going into COP21 than they were in 2009, the time of the COP in Copenhagen.


Dr. Ricky Rood
R.W.F.ON
22E/MH/S/C3
Quoting 98. sar2401:

I don't think Sandra will make landfall in Baja. It certainly won't a 95 mph hurricane when it makes landfall in Sinaloa.


It "Might" have an outside shot.We will have a better certainty tomorrow.Intensity is always tricky.


A Norman Rockwell original oil entitled "Saying Grace" sold recently for 48 million USD.

Ice cometh. Ice groweth. Ice meltus.
I came across that old denier straw man tonight about cold killing more people than heat.
I found this 4 year old link, book mark this one -
Recent Heat Waves Likely Warmest Since 1500 in Europe

The intense heat wave that centered on western Russia last summer was truly a record breaker. It surpassed even 2003's scorcher in western and central Europe — which has been blamed for 70,000 deaths. And together, both of these mega heat waves have secured a place in the 500-year weather history of Europe, according to a new analysis.

The researchers also looked ahead, and found that a variety of different climate models predict an increase in mega heat waves similar to these in the 21st century for two regions within Europe.

From late July until the second week in August 2010, record heat settled across 772,204 square miles (2 million square kilometers) in Russia and Eastern Europe. In Moscow, the daytime temperatures reached 101 degrees Fahrenheit (38.2 degrees Celsius), in Kiev, nights reached 77 F (25 C), crops were destroyed, fires swept across western Russia, and preliminary estimates now put the Russian death toll at 55,000.


by Wynne Parry | March 17, 2011 02:02pm ET

So, there's 125,000 deaths in just 2 events from heat . People dying from cold come in 2's and 3's.

Das poofing,ack,coff...cooler water..spit'..







Some folks on the Mexican Coast are going to get hit with a stronger storm than anticipated..Especially when one adds the forward speed to the equation..They have it arriving below tropical storm strength. My guess is it will have T.S. winds , with gusts near hurricane strength.
Quoting 112. hydrus:

Some folks on the Mexican Coast are going to get hit with a stronger storm than anticipated..Especially when one adds the forward speed to the equation..They have it arriving below tropical storm strength. My guess is it will have T.S. winds , with gusts near hurricane strength.


The size of the storm seems to have become less over the last few hours but I would think that the biggest problem for them will be the rainfall, as they have had quite a bit of rain recently the ground will probably not absorb much more and possible devastating run off will be on the cards for the next 2 days at least.
Texas is going to be on the receiving end of what's left over of the rainfall probably.
Quoting 102. ColoradoBob1:



Ah, the old Southern Inferiority Complex.

There are papers on this :

"Why Do They Live There? How the White Southern Inferiority Complex Shaped Modern America,"
University of Texas at Austin, May 2008.

Journalist W. J. Cash’s “Savage Ideal,” historian Sheldon Hackney’s “siege-mentality,” literary critic Fred Hobson’s “rage to explain,” and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.‘s “Drum Major Instinct,” all describe the same regional disorder: a deep and enduring Inferiority Complex that underlies the culture of the American South.

Link

Thanks for the link.
surfline anticipating a very strong north swell event occurring north shore oahu dec 5-6. these strong events dont occur very often. some yrs more than others. watching to see if the swell is big enough for the Eddie would Go.
116. beell
The Russians have invaded the community blogs on Black Friday.
Quoting 67. sar2401:

I was wondering what would happen if I posted a painting of, say, an African-American Thanksgiving that included all the repulsive stereotypes we've seen of African -Americans? How long would it take for, say, a moderator, to see that, delete it, and ban me? I guess this is a case where unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people is OK though.

Pretty sad on an otherwise good day here.

Beautiful weather yesterday for Thanksgiving and again today!


Hey Sar! I, for one, found the artwork quite funny. I believe it's important for folks to be able to laugh at themselves and not to take themselves too seriously. Unfortunately far too many people don't share that point of view. However, you've made an extremely valid point. You referenced "African-Americans" in your post. Imagine the response if one was posted showing Muslim stereo-types. In this PC world it's not ok to make fun of hardly any groups except for Christians, white folks and conservatives. Go figure.
Quoting 117. PensacolaDoug:


Beautiful weather yesterday for Thanksgiving and again today!


Hey Sar! I, for one, found the artwork quite funny. I believe it's important for folks to be able to laugh at themselves and not to take themselves too seriously. Unfortunately far too many people don't share that point of view. However, you've made an extremely valid point. You referenced "African-Americans" in your post. Imagine the response if one was posted showing Muslim stereo-types. In this PC world it's not ok to make fun of hardly any groups except for Christians, white folks and conservatives. Go figure.



Whenever you hear the term PC, your know the argument can be disregarded. I, for one, do not want to infringe on anyone's rights to offend. It stands as a beacon of those who lack empathy, have no regard for the power of images and symbols, and are only concerned with themselves. I quite like self referential signifiers, it simplies things. Why anyone would sit here and defend their right to harm groups with symbols or words that generalize and marginalize is beyond me...and when it happens to a dominant group in society like white people, Christians, and conservatives, it can hardly be considered marginalizing like it is with minority groups. Don't get all persecuted on us this morning.

Have a fun hyper consumer Friday all!
Seems a bit early for such a large swell. Although I think 1969 event was December as well. Big north swells like that will wrap all the way to Makapuu and even Sandy Beach. Really amazing.

Quoting 115. islander101010:

surfline anticipating a very strong north swell event occurring north shore oahu dec 5-6. these strong events dont occur very often. some yrs more than others. watching to see if the swell is big enough for the Eddie would Go.
Quoting 61. HaoleboySurfEC:

My broc bolted and I have meager pickings. Bell peppers lived through the freeze and I should get another bunch before the final curtain call. Sweet potatoes came out of ground in September. Barely put a dent in the supply today.

I have a hydrangea that is blooming again. East side of house. Gets morning sun in winter. Plant is as full as if it were June.

Happy Thanksgiving.




I've never had broccoli bolt. I don't know why because its common for everyone else In hot weather the plants sometimes die and in warm humid weather they grow and produce heads you couldn't feed to a pig. Small potbound plants planted in March here will produce button heads in April but the sideshoots will produce normal 3-5" broccoli heads in May. For good sideshoots weather has to be cool (below 80 highs and 55 lows) so the worthless central head of a stunted plant is all you'll get if it matures in warm weather.

I was disappointed in my potato yield. 8 pounds of new potatoes in 40 square feet. The light freeze in October and cool weather that month slowed maturity too much. I was hoping for 20 pounds. Still mashed a couple pounds for THanksgiving along with sweetpotato pie from the ones I dug in mid October. I had a lot of stuff going on or I would have planted a lot more irish potatoes two weeks earlier.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
0:00 AM FST November 28 2015
==========================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (999 hPa) located at 12.3S 175.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 17 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Convection remains persistent. Organization has improved slightly in the past 24 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the north and south. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap yields DT 2.0, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked the system and move it east southeast with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS 13.5S 173.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 14.7S 171.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.3S 169.2W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
NWS Pago Pago, American Samoa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
=========================

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for all islands of American Samoa.. Tutuila, Aunuu, Manu'a and Swains
125. beell
Quoting 118. Naga5000:



Whenever you hear the term PC, your know the argument can be disregarded. I, for one, do not want to infringe on anyone's rights to offend. It stands as a beacon of those who lack empathy, have no regard for the power of images and symbols, and are only concerned with themselves. I quite like self referential signifiers, it simplies things. Why anyone would sit here and defend their right to harm groups with symbols or words that generalize and marginalize is beyond me...and when it happens to a dominant group in society like white people, Christians, and conservatives, it can hardly be considered marginalizing like it is with minority groups. Don't get all persecuted on us this morning.

Have a fun hyper consumer Friday all!


Perhaps in that perfect unattainable Utopian society we would do better to provide a thanksgiving table for all instead of trying to provide a separate table for each of us.

This concludes your saccharine, sanctimonious sermon for the day!
:)

The Four Freedoms according to Norman Rockwell





yes, virginia, they're all white...
Quoting 125. beell:



Perhaps in that perfect unattainable Utopian society we would do better to provide a thanksgiving table for all instead of trying to provide a separate table for each of us.

This concludes your saccharine, sanctimonious sermon for the day!
:)


I thought the cigarettes and beer represented a means to smoke and marinate the meat. ;)

Beautiful weather here today although I'm working.
Quoting 67:

I was wondering what would happen if I posted a painting of, say, an African-American Thanksgiving that included all the repulsive stereotypes we've seen of African -Americans? How long would it take for, say, a moderator, to see that, delete it, and ban me? I guess this is a case where unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people is OK though.

Pretty sad on an otherwise good day here.
What I find most interesting--at least from a sociological perspective--is that where some see in that image a smiling, multi-generational family sitting down to enjoy a meal of fast food chicken, bagged potato chips, and tasteless American beer--a repast every bit as American, if not more so, than the mythic original of squash and succotash--others choose for reasons unknown to see an image featuring "repulsive stereotypes" and "unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people".

I think Rorschach himself would be intrigued...
Quoting 116. beell:

The Russians have invaded the community blogs on Black Friday.


Not the Russians, one rogue ISP without a sense of belonging is my gut feeling on the ignorance translated.

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

@ georgevandenberghe

Worried about the brox bolting here in Jax, FL. I got about 20 fist-sized heads: Pacman, Nutribud, and Goliath- if we don't get some cooler temps, they're gonna bloom. That would be so sad cause last year I had basketball-sized heads.

Tomatoes are on the vine BUT they're all confused cause the length of day(light) is too short for them to keep bearing.


That there's a little spin. Should we be anticipating blobation?
Quoting 130. aquak9:

@ georgevandenberghe

Worried about the brox bolting here in Jax, FL. I got about 20 fist-sized heads: Pacman, Nutribud, and Goliath- if we don't get some cooler temps, they're gonna bloom. That would be so sad cause last year I had basketball-sized heads.

Tomatoes are on the vine BUT they're all confused cause the length of day(light) is too short for them to keep bearing.





Mine are roughly grapefruit sized. The plants are in good condition and optimal size is about 10" I need five to seven good growing days to get this and today and tomorrow will count for two. I also could not get tomatoes in fall in Tallahassee, my only season was from late May to mid July. After thirty years of experience in the mid atlantic I'd like another crack at trying to grow things in deep southeastern conditions.

My experience with broccoli in fall in TLH from one year (1985) is that the combination of unseasonable November warmth and short days with weak sun, makes for very poor flavor. Cool weather will probably improve that too. December 1985 produced hard freezes which killed my plants.

Quoting 67. sar2401:

I was wondering what would happen if I posted a painting of, say, an African-American Thanksgiving that included all the repulsive stereotypes we've seen of African -Americans? How long would it take for, say, a moderator, to see that, delete it, and ban me? I guess this is a case where unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people is OK though.

Pretty sad on an otherwise good day here.
I agree with you 100%. I was born in Florida and have lived here all of my life. I am really tired of the attitude of many that it is "o.k." to discriminate, ridicule, mock, etc. those of us that are from the south. Why is this? I am also offended by #102. It would appear that you hold those beliefs because you offered the information. Just because "papers" have been written on this subject, does that justify the discrimination and ridicule? Anyone can write a "paper" about anything. Does that make the information correct and true?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Re: The growing Ice storm in Southern Plains.
Bogus surface analysis for 0600 today from WPC. Cannot find an official observed temp over 40F since 6 pm 11/26, Thanksgiving day, at OKC - not at Will Rogers or Wiley Post, or the Spencer mesonet station (E OKC). Where the heck is the WPC 41F data coming from? Satellites?
Down to 20 the last 3 nights in a row here east of Bellingham, wa. The best garden year ever is finished....well my overabundance of wretched Russian kale is still thriving, but everything else is done. The 12 gallons of salsa ought to get me through the winter, so nice to preserve some tasty sunshine in a jar.
Quoting 127. Neapolitan:

What I find most interesting--at least from a sociological perspective--is that where some see in that image a smiling, multi-generational family sitting down to enjoy a meal of fast food chicken, bagged potato chips, and tasteless American beer--a repast every bit as American, if not more so, than the mythic original of squash and succotash--others choose for reasons unknown to see an image featuring "repulsive stereotypes" and "unprovoked ridicule of Southern white people".

I think Rorschach himself would be intrigued...


I don't know who made the image, but, I didn't think it was at southerners in general, I thought it was more at poorer folk in general. Which I wouldn't think any better for anyway either. But surely for some, that would be a good t-day feast, and who am I to judge it being worthy of a t-day feast or not. Plus, thinking if it were at poor folks, if someone saw someone using their foodstamp/card (if those are still around?) things to buy a feast, people will take photos in the checkout line and publicly shame them for using it on 'luxury' food like a whole turkey, pies etc. So they can't win anyway, who ever it's mocking. Though, which might just be Americans in general, since that's sort of how we're seen in general too!
Quoting 138. plantmoretrees:

Down to 20 the last 3 nights in a row here east of Bellingham, wa. The best garden year ever is finished....well my overabundance of wretched Russian kale is still thriving, but everything else is done. The 12 gallons of salsa ought to get me through the winter, so nice to preserve some tasty sunshine in a jar.



At least zucchini is killed by frost ending another season of wretched overabundance. I don't grow it since it's available from any number of people trying to get it off their hands and into yours.
Quoting 129. Patrap:


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


it is finish