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Unseasonable Sandra: Hurricane Threat for Mexico, Torrential Rain in Southern Plains

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:51 PM GMT on November 25, 2015

Holiday travel during the busy Saturday/Sunday Thanksgiving weekend across portions of the Southern Plains will get disrupted by a most unusual occurrence--flooding rains and a potential ice storm, enhanced by moisture from the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane observed so late in the year. Declared a hurricane on Tuesday night, fast-strengthening Sandra is already making East Pacific history about 700 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. Sandra reached Category 2 strength in the National Hurricane Center’s 10 am EST Wednesday advisory, with top sustained winds estimated by satellite at 85 knots (100 mph). Sandra is the second-latest hurricane to form in the East Pacific since reliable satellite-based records began in 1971. Prior to Sandra, the strongest East Pacific hurricane so late in the year was 1983’s Winnie, which topped out on December 6 at 80 knots (about 90 mph). The king of November hurricanes in the East Pacific is 2011’s Kenneth, which attained top sustained winds of 125 knots (145 mph) on November 22--just two days before (U.S.) Thanksgiving Day.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Hurricane Sandra taken at 10 am EST November 25, 2015. At the image, Sandra was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Even though it’s late November, conditions are unusually supportive for Sandra to continue intensifying into a major hurricane. A small eye has become evident on satellite imagery over the last few hours, with a compact zone of intense convection around it. Sea surface temperatures are at record highs for the time of year (29-30°C, or 84-86°F), and there is plenty of oceanic heat content below the surface (see Figure 2). Although Sandra is gradually moving into a region of higher vertical wind shear, the current values of 10 - 20 knots should allow continued strengthening. Things will change quickly by Thursday, however, as Sandra’s northwestward motion takes it into much stronger flow ahead of a powerful upper-level trough moving into the Southwest U.S. Cooler SSTs and higher shear will take its toll, weakening Sandra dramatically. There remains some spread in computer model guidance on Sandra’s intensity and track as it approaches the Mexican coastline, although a stronger, more intact Sandra would tend to recurve more quickly and further south due to greater influence of the upper-level steering flow. The 00Z ECMWF model brings Sandra into the Baja Peninsula as a very weak cyclone, while the 06Z runs of the HWRF, GFDL, and GFS models bring Sandra to the coast near or north of Mazatlan early Saturday as a stronger system, possibly a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued as soon as Wednesday evening for parts of the Mexican coastline, and the Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate Sandra on Friday afternoon. According to WU contributor Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), Sandra is on track to become the latest landfalling tropical cyclone on record for Mexico, beating out Tara (Nov. 12, 1961).


Figure 2. Oceanic heat content (in kilojoules per centimeter squared) along the path of Hurricane Sandra, beginning at 7 am EST Wednesday November 25. Sandra was over water with a lot of heat on Wednesday morning (yellow colors), but was forecast to move into a region of substantially less heat content by Wednesday night (12 hour forecast point over blue-green colors.) The oceanic heat content for Sandra is much lower than what Hurricane Patricia had to work with on October 23, 2015, when it rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.


A rare Thanksgiving Day hurricane
Assuming Sandra persists as a hurricane into Thursday as expected, it will be only the second Thanksgiving Day hurricane in modern records for the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific, and the strongest by far. The other was Hurricane Karl, which spun harmlessly as a minimal Category 1 hurricane far out in the central North Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day 1980. Several other weaker storms have had NHC forecasters issuing advisories on Thanksgiving Day. This includes 1987’s Tropical Storm Keith, which struck Florida as a tropical storm on Wednesday, November 23, and persisted as a strong tropical storm east of Florida until midday Thanksgiving Day (November 24). In 1998, minimal Tropical Storm Nicole weakened to a depression east of Bermuda early on Thanksgiving Day (November 26), with advisories discontinued at 10 am EST. Nicole did get a new lease on life several days later, becoming a hurricane on November 30 and persisting to become one of just five Atlantic hurricanes on record during the month of December. In the hyperactive Atlantic season of 2005, Tropical Storm Delta roamed the eastern Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). And in 2011, a weakening Tropical Storm Keith well out to sea in the eastern Pacific prompted advisories on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). Prior to the establishment of NHC as we know it, an unnamed tropical storm dissipated on Thanksgiving Day 1953 (November 26) well east of Bermuda. Hawaii takes the cake for the worst U.S. hurricane-related impacts during Thanksgiving Week: Hurricane Iwa passed near Kauai on Tuesday, November 23, 1982, during the run-up to the “super” El Niño of 1982-83. Iwa caused one death and inflicted $250 million in damage in Kauai.

A banner year for Central and Eastern Pacific hurricanes
Assuming Sandra is our final tropical cyclone of 2015 in the Central and Eastern Pacific (not at all a sure thing in a year like this!), it will serve as a fitting capstone to an amazing year. The 16 hurricanes so far this year east of the International Date Line matches the record total set last year and in 1992. This year also ties with 1992 for the largest number of major hurricanes--10--although Sandra could push us above that mark. NHC’s Eric Blake notes that the two-year total of 32 Central and Eastern Pacific hurricanes in 2014 and 2015 beats out the two-year record of 27 set in 1992 and 1993.



Figure 3. Projected 5-day precipitation totals (rain and melted snow/sleet) for the period from 7 am EST Wednesday, November 25, through Monday, November 30.


Thanksgiving travel troubles in store across the central U.S.
Some of the biggest impacts from Sandra may occur with a prolonged heavy rain episode in the Southern Plains, increased by Sandra’s remnants. The strong upper-level low settling over the U.S. Southwest will help pull Sandra northeastward, and the storm’s moisture will flow atop a very shallow cold air mass that will spill across the Southern Plains later this week. Such setups involving Eastern Pacific hurricanes are notorious for giving the region some of its heaviest rains on record, but they are far more typical of September or October than late November. Flash flood watches are already in effect from far north Texas to southwest Illinois, and localized flooding may become a major travel headache. Rainfall totals of 5-10” are expected from Thursday through Monday across north Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and much of Arkansas. These rains will fall over areas that have been doused repeatedly over the last few months. With 50.75” of rain for the year through Tuesday morning, Dallas-Fort Worth area may well break its all-time annual precipitation record of 53.54” (set in 1991) before November is done.

On the northwest edge of the heavy rain swath, there should be a parallel strip with low-level temperatures cold enough for mostly light but widespread freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow, with an initial round from Thanksgiving Day into Friday and perhaps a second batch over the weekend as another lobe rotates around the sprawling upper-level low. Warm surfaces, and plenty of warm air at upper levels, may cut into this storm’s ability to cause high-impact winter weather, but frozen precipitation appears likely from eastern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and northwest Oklahoma into eastern Colorado and much of Kansas and Nebraska, as well as the higher elevations of Colorado and New Mexico. An ice storm warning may be issued for parts of the northwest half of Oklahoma as the event draws closer.

Stay safe, everyone, and have a great Thanksgiving!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Hurricane Winter Weather Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you.
More historic flooding coming. An AGW driven record El-Nino. Going to be a rough next few months and a rough future climate wise.
Thanks Bob & Jeff. For those traveling on this, the busiest travel day of the year, heed the last two paragraphs of the two wise ones and travel safe...
Thanks for the Update Gentlemen....
Looks like a vague agglomeration of winter weather is in the offing.
What a mess travel is going to be.. Delays through DFW mess with flights throughout the US. I hope the freezing temps stay north. Happy Thanksgiving eve from beautiful mild perfect NW FL!
I'm making a pie
for me myself and I
apples and crust
spices a must
and if I were able
you'd ALL be at my table


Quoting 3. nrtiwlnvragn:
Good recent entry in the ENSO blog:


Exactly the same, but completely different: why we have so many different ways of looking at sea surface temperature
So what is WebberWeather doing? Is he constructing his own dataset?

ERSSTv4 goes back to 1854 (although due to a lack of observations in the Pacific Ocean, for El Niño purposes, the dataset reliably goes back to only 1950) ... "


Webber was saying something about finding el ninos in the 1800's. Can't do that with this dataset which is supposedly their best effort at a historical dataset. ("scientists have already put in a lot of time and effort to make this dataset consistent regardless of era.").

I admit I never really read his comments because I had no links to sources to understand the prolonged verbiage.
The weird ways the weather makes you buy things you didn’t plan to

Excerpts:

The secret to weather-related marketing is that the way people experience weather is relative, says Jeremy Steinberg, global head of sales at The Weather Company, which owns the Weather Channel. As any frost-hardened northerner will tell you, an inch of snow in Boston or Minnesota is very different from an inch of snow in Washington or Atlanta.

Weather influences people's health, moods and expectations of what they will enjoy in the future. Weather has been known to affect blood pressure, suicide rates and even a person's ability to concentrate.
Quoting 9. bappit:

So what is WebberWeather doing? Is he constructing his own dataset?

ERSSTv4 goes back to 1854 (although due to a lack of observations in the Pacific Ocean, for El Niño purposes, the dataset reliably goes back to only 1950) ... "


Webber was saying something about finding el ninos in the 1800's. Can't do that with this dataset which is supposedly their best effort at a historical dataset. ("scientists have already put in a lot of time and effort to make this dataset consistent regardless of era.").

I admit I never really read his comments because I had no links to sources to understand the prolonged verbiage.


I believe he has constructed his own ENSO data based on different data sets, he would need to explain it in the context of that quote from the ENSO blog on only reliable back to 1950.
Quoting 10. nrtiwlnvragn:

The weird ways the weather makes you buy things you didn’t plan to

Excerpts:

The secret to weather-related marketing is that the way people experience weather is relative, says Jeremy Steinberg, global head of sales at The Weather Company, which owns the Weather Channel. As any frost-hardened northerner will tell you, an inch of snow in Boston or Minnesota is very different from an inch of snow in Washington or Atlanta.

Weather influences people's health, moods and expectations of what they will enjoy in the future. Weather has been known to affect blood pressure, suicide rates and even a person's ability to concentrate.


My concentration goes out the window if the weather is even remotely interesting. Last winter in chemistry class, I'd be holding my experiment while emptily staring out the window at the falling snowflakes.
.25' to .40" in Orlando as showers continue to train in from the East.
nrt's comment got me to looking around the CPC web site and I found a good article on nuisance flooding: Understanding climate: Billy Sweet and John Marra explain nuisance floods

Though I do not like their map of nuisance flooding because it has no data for so much of the US coastline (limited number of NOAA tidal guages) and they do not indicate where the data is missing despite listing a symbol for missing data in their legend. (For instance, I know that nuisance flooding is occurring in Miami but they make no indication of it.) Otherwise, the map is not a total loss, and I liked the other information.
No wonder traffic is a nightmare.........


Pumpkin Pie in Miami:
Thanksgiving Flight Patterns



Quoting 8. aquak9:

I'm making a pie
for me myself and I
apples and crust
spices a must
and if I were able
you'd ALL be at my table



Happy Thanksgiving

Quoting 8. aquak9:

I'm making a pie
for me myself and I
apples and crust
spices a must
and if I were able
you'd ALL be at my table



Thanksgiving is near.

Be of good cheer.

May your dinner be hot.

Fresh out of the pot.

With a cooler of freshly brewed beer....:)
well keeper, of course mine looks NOTHING like that...

(wanders off, feeling quite inadequate)
Thanksgiving Every Day

The table is brimming with good things to eat;
We're surrounded by family and friends; what a treat.
The feelings that fill us today can't be beat;
It's Thanksgiving Day, and it all feels complete.

But other days, sometimes, things don't seem so fine;
Those days are not polished and don't seem to shine.
It's then in our minds, we forget all the good,
And think of the things we would get, if we could.

On days when our thinking causes us dread,
If we could remember, it's all in our head,
And not let our minds take our gratitude away,
Then we'd make every day like Thanksgiving Day.

Karl Fuchs
Lots of light showers passing through the state. Quite common for this time of year.

Quoting 19. aquak9:

well keeper, of course mine looks NOTHING like that...

(wanders off, feeling quite inadequate)
ahh but I bet it tastes good all the same I like mine with a little ice cream

thanks
With the permission of the group, I would like to revise my Atlantic Tropical Storm prediction to include to include 2 in December (one of which will be a major), and yes, one in January (which technically will begin the 2016 season). I offer no analysis/proof/or backup to this prediction. But I assure you, confidence is very high!!
A unexpected .31" so far 2 KMCO (Orlando Executive Airport).
Quoting 21. Bucsboltsfan:

Lots of light showers passing through the state. Quite common for this time of year.




Some of it is coming in heavy quick burst. Coming up from Orlando there was a East West line moving thru and the rain was quick heavy for a few minutes.
The 16 hurricanes so far this year east of the International Date Line matches the record total set last year and in 1992. This year also ties with 1992 for the largest number of hurricanes--10--although Sandra could push us above that mark.

I don't understand these two sentences above as written. Should the second sentence be describing the number of major hurricanes?
Quoting 26. NiceMarmot:

The 16 hurricanes so far this year east of the International Date Line matches the record total set last year and in 1992. This year also ties with 1992 for the largest number of hurricanes--10--although Sandra could push us above that mark.

I don't understand these two sentences above as written. Should the second sentence be describing the number of major hurricanes?


Yes, it should read as major hurricanes. Minor error, hopefully Doc or Bob are still on to correct that. I was weirded out by that too, but the major hurricane record is 10.
Sandra, another small intense storm.. click pic for loop.


Quoting 19. aquak9:

well keeper, of course mine looks NOTHING like that...

(wanders off, feeling quite inadequate)
{{{aqua}}} Pretty sure that was photoshopped.
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Happy Thanksgiving




Just finished simmering the filling for my apple pie. The butter-crust is tomorrow morning and the baking finishes early afternoon, just enough time to let it cool down for dessert.

There are two mandatory pies in my household for thanksgiving: pumpkin and apple. The pumpkin one is already done and sitting on a cooling rack...and tempting me to not let it survive until tomorrow. :)
Quoting 27. Astrometeor:



Yes, it should read as major hurricanes. Minor error, hopefully Doc or Bob are still on to correct that. I was weirded out by that too, but the major hurricane record is 10.


Thanks, I was wondering if I was missing something.
To my dear friend Scott - Happy thanksgiving to you and your Family. May u be blessed with many graces including making accurate ENSO forecasts like u usually do. And to the rest of Wunderground happy thanksgiving and peace
Strange and beautiful wave near Lake Michigan..Photo by Mike Bernhardt..

Quoting 12. Astrometeor:



My concentration goes out the window if the weather is even remotely interesting. Last winter in chemistry class, I'd be holding my experiment while emptily staring out the window at the falling snowflakes.


Snow distraction. A very uncommon risk at FSU where I did graduate work. General for six months at PSU.
Quoting 29. Xyrus2000:



Just finished simmering the filling for my apple pie. The butter-crust is tomorrow morning and the baking finishes early afternoon, just enough time to let it cool down for dessert.

There are two mandatory pies in my household for thanksgiving: pumpkin and apple. The pumpkin one is already done and sitting on a cooling rack...and tempting me to not let it survive until tomorrow. :)


I try to serve good garden stuff as side dishes for thanksgiving. Most years I get excellent lettuce, broccoli and spinach and a few laggard peas along with potatoes and squash. It's a little late for the last tomatoes and corn. No squash this year since I didn't grow it and broccoli is very late because of September heat (early to mid December for the large crop). But I can add lemons to the table.. they are early this year.

2012 produced a Christmas bonanza of huge piles of very high quality broccoli, spinach and a few green onions.

Happy thanksgiving.
Good evening hello from Germany amid still quite wintry central Europe with some snow in higher areas and sleet for me in Rhine Valley last night. Weather should calm down and get a bit warmer in the next days, though. Meanwhile severe weather in the Mediterranean (see the latest analysis from Estofex).

I don't have much time these days (and to be true: all the ugly war and terror news draw a lot of attention right now). So here just some random weather news from different parts of the world:

Two confirmed dead as 45km-wide South Australia bushfire rages
The Guardian, Wednesday 25 November 2015 10.28 GMT

Drought threatens water-truck lifeline in parched northeast Brazil
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Wed, 25 Nov 2015 08:26 GMT

Flooding causes chaos in Saudi Arabia and Qatar
November 25, 2015 Updated: November 25, 2015 07:52 PM
RIYADH // Seasonal rains triggered floods in Saudi Arabia and Qatar on Wednesday, killing one person in the Saudi city of Rimah.
In Saudi Arabia, schools were closed for a second day on Wednesday as rain continued to fall on Riyadh, flooding some streets and forcing drivers to abandon their cars. ...


50 districts drought-hit, UP seeks Rs 2058cr relief
Times of India, Vishwa Mohan,TNN | Nov 25, 2015, 06.00 AM IST
NEW DELHI: With 18 of 29 states in the country in the grip of drought due to deficit monsoon this year, the Centre is in the midst of the mammoth task of assessing the loss before extending financial assistance—an issue which in the past has always been a bone of contention between Centre and state. ..

2015 to be hottest year on record - until next year - WMO
Source: Reuters - Wed, 25 Nov 2015 14:22 GMT


Nevertheless: Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
wanna a see a long fetch of swells? look currently between new zealand and australia . even though its not large it must be over 3000 miles long.
Sandra is now a major. Woot.

HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015

Sandra's intensification has continued at a rapid pace. The
hurricane now has a clearer eye in infrared satellite imagery that
is completely surrounded by a white ring on the Dvorak enhancement
curve. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T5.5/102 kt and
T5.0/90 kt, respectively, although data-T numbers were up to 6.0.
The UW-CIMSS ADT scheme has been flopping between different scene
types, but when it has used an eye pattern it has yielded estimates
in the 5.5-6.0 range. Based on these numbers, the initial intensity
is raised to 100 kt, making Sandra a category 3 hurricane. There
have now been 9 major hurricanes over the eastern North Pacific
Ocean during the 2015 season, which is a record for that basin.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.0N 109.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 14.0N 110.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 15.7N 111.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.5N 111.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.3N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 23.1N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 27.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2h2 hours ago
DC winter outlooks: NBC4 20-25", CWG 10-14", WUSA9 10-15", FOX5 8-14", ABC7 8-12", J Cohen 28", J Bastardi 25-30
ozgalah made it through those fires in South Australia.
Quoting 27. Astrometeor:



Yes, it should read as major hurricanes. Minor error, hopefully Doc or Bob are still on to correct that. I was weirded out by that too, but the major hurricane record is 10.
Now I'm really confused. Is it 9 or 10? This from the update on Sanda -

There have now been 9 major hurricanes over the eastern North Pacific Ocean during the 2015 season, which is a record for that basin

Quoting 38. hydrus:

Strange and beautiful wave near Lake Michigan..Photo by Mike Bernhardt..


Dang. I could spend a thousand years standing on the shores of Lake Michigan and never get a picture like that.
Quoting 15. nrtiwlnvragn:

No wonder traffic is a nightmare.........


Pumpkin Pie in Miami:
Thanksgiving Flight Patterns






Guess not too many folks are headed to Maine for the holidays
Quoting 29. Xyrus2000:



Just finished simmering the filling for my apple pie. The butter-crust is tomorrow morning and the baking finishes early afternoon, just enough time to let it cool down for dessert.

There are two mandatory pies in my household for thanksgiving: pumpkin and apple. The pumpkin one is already done and sitting on a cooling rack...and tempting me to not let it survive until tomorrow. :)
Okay, so what was your address again, and what time is dinner? :-)
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

As Lord Vader would say...

Im-pressive'

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
click image for loop

Quoting 29. Xyrus2000:



Just finished simmering the filling for my apple pie. The butter-crust is tomorrow morning and the baking finishes early afternoon, just enough time to let it cool down for dessert.

There are two mandatory pies in my household for thanksgiving: pumpkin and apple. The pumpkin one is already done and sitting on a cooling rack...and tempting me to not let it survive until tomorrow. :)


The two labs, cockapoo and both cats would all go after these. They have to cool in an enclosure :-)
Quoting 48. sar2401:

Dang. I could spend a thousand years standing on the shores of Lake Michigan and never get a picture like that.
i dunno..1000 years is a long time, and the Great Lakes get whacked with storms on a regular basis. The true power and beauty of the lakes cannot be captured with a camera, one has to experience it.
Quoting 48. sar2401:

Dang. I could spend a thousand years standing on the shores of Lake Michigan and never get a picture like that.


I have the same luck, lol! What a stunning photo.
Quoting 38. hydrus:

Strange and beautiful wave near Lake Michigan..Photo by Mike Bernhardt..




That wave was caused by the incoming wave impacting an outgoing wave. See a lot of similar waves near sea walls or cliffs. But capturing the picture at the exact moment is pretty cool.
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Happy Thanksgiving




I LOVE this picture.

Cat 3 Sandra very impressive. I'll join the crowd that's secretly wanting to say its headed towards high-end cat 4 intensity. Oops. I said it and jinxed Sandra's chances. It won't happen now.
Quoting 55. hydrus:

i dunno..1000 years is a long time, and the Great Lakes get whacked with storms on a regular basis. The true power and beauty of the lakes cannot be captured with a camera, one has to experience it.


Indeed, I saw Lake P rise 17 ft once.

Those moments are rare for even one Life.

I'm currently in my hometown(San Antonio), where a strange phenomena has been occurring. Water has been falling from the sky at regular intervals all day long. Even a little bit last night. Can someone please tell me what's going on here? I'm not familiar with this.

Also, fingers crossed for my return flight to LAX Saturday morning.
Quoting 60. TimSoCal:

I'm currently in my hometown(San Antonio), where a strange phenomena has been occurring. Water has been falling from the sky at regular intervals all day long. Even a little bit last night. Can someone please tell me what's going on here? I'm not familiar with this.

Also, fingers crossed for my return flight to LAX Saturday morning.

That's called RAIN. We got .10 here in Jurupa Valey, CA this morning.
Quoting 59. Patrap:



Indeed, I saw Lake P rise 17 ft once.

Those moments are rare for even one Life.


You must swim real good..:)
Quoting 47. sar2401:

Now I'm really confused. Is it 9 or 10? This from the update on Sanda -

There have now been 9 major hurricanes over the eastern North Pacific Ocean during the 2015 season, which is a record for that basin




9 is the new record for the Eastern North Pacific. If you include the Central Pacific, the overall record jumps to 11. :)
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



That wave was caused by the incoming wave impacting an outgoing wave. See a lot of similar waves near sea walls or cliffs. But capturing the picture at the exact moment is pretty cool.
Yep..I believe the wind may helped with some of it.
Sandra and a lot of storms for Pablosyn.

Quoting 61. PedleyCA:


That's called RAIN. We got .10 here in Jurupa Valey, CA this morning.


We had some about a week ago here in Ventura County. There was so much rain that I couldn't find dry spots between where the drops had landed, just a continuous film of moisture. It all dried up, though.
Quoting 62. hydrus:

You must swim real good..:)


Actually that was Aug 28th, 2005 round 4pm CDT.

I was 2 miles to the West or left of the yacht club fire,...on the top of the East-West Levee, that Held.





Grothar, a reminder for your string bean casserole...

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME....
Heavy rains rolling thru here in Longwood.
I hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving tomorrow! Weather should be nice here in the Northeast, it's been pretty quiet lately. Only thing of interest today is the barometer- we're close to 1045mb, highest value of the year at my home weather station and apparently one of the higher November readings on record. The air did feel a little heavy today ;)
Quoting 68. GeoffreyWPB:

Grothar, a reminder for your string bean casserole...




I wondered how long it would take you to post that.


From all of us to all of you.



Doesn't look too heavy Scott. None made it too the west coast.

Quoting 71. StormTrackerScott:

Heavy rains rolling thru here in Longwood.
Quoting 29. Xyrus2000:



Just finished simmering the filling for my apple pie. The butter-crust is tomorrow morning and the baking finishes early afternoon, just enough time to let it cool down for dessert.

There are two mandatory pies in my household for thanksgiving: pumpkin and apple. The pumpkin one is already done and sitting on a cooling rack...and tempting me to not let it survive until tomorrow. :)


My mouth is watering already.

One pie would last about 30 seconds here. I am sure we single-handedly made Betty Crocker a millionaire. The little Grothars and nice, but they are animals when it comes to food.
I always do my share when it comes to holiday food preparation.
Done.



Picked up .29" in 10 minutes with more heavy rains coming in.

Greetings from Mocksville, NC within the home of the honeyed voice of old North Carolina money.

For the 100th anniversary of E = mc2 and the publication of the Theory of General Relativity, PBS's show NOVA will air "Inside Einstein's Mind" tonight at 9 p.m. eastern. Check local listings.

Note that the complete paper was not published until March 20, 1916.
Dallas Drenching?



Oklahoma City Orage?



Early Thanksgiving Greetings From the Island of St. Thomas!

It's a beautiful 80, clear skies, with a beautiful moon to lead the five cruise ships that docked today on to their next destination(s) tonight.

Tomorrow, our local bar will host our annual Thanksgiving dinner. Being that we live on an island, there are many here that are separated from families. So you bring a dish, it costs you $5.00 or if you don't want to cook, it costs you $20.00, and you are guaranteed one of the best dinners you've ever had! All proceeds made tomorrow will be given to the on island women's shelter. A very worthy cause and one that we support more than once a year.

I do hope that each and every one of you has a wonderful day tomorrow, filled with love and family....and if you can't have that, that you find a place such as the one we celebrate with each year with friends which means, in my eyes, my family too!

Hope all is well with everybody and Happy Turkey Day!

Lindy
Neapolitan, lets see some pics of your culinary delights!
Quoting 81. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Early Thanksgiving Greetings From the Island of St. Thomas!

It's a beautiful 80, clear skies, with a beautiful moon to lead the five cruise ships that docked today on to their next destination(s) tonight.

Tomorrow, our local bar will host our annual Thanksgiving dinner. Being that we live on an island, there are many here that are separated from families. So you bring a dish, it costs you $5.00 or if you don't want to cook, it costs you $20.00, and you are guaranteed one of the best dinners you've ever had! All proceeds made tomorrow will be given to the on island women's shelter. A very worthy cause and one that we support more than once a year.

I do hope that each and every one of you has a wonderful day tomorrow, filled with love and family....and if you can't have that, that you find a place such as the one we celebrate with each year with friends which means, in my eyes, my family too!

Hope all is well with everybody and Happy Turkey Day!

Lindy


That sounds like a ton of fun ...wish that I could be there with you. I love those type of gatherings, you meet some of the most awesome people. Enjoy yourself Lindy
Quoting 61. PedleyCA:


That's called RAIN. We got .10 here in Jurupa Valey, CA this morning.


A little less down at my place Ped :(
Love the eye feature ....

Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


[Swipe]
You know, Joe, I've been sitting here trying to come up with something that beat your "witches broom" last month but with no brilliant ideas. Going to lay down my pea shooter and just wish you and yours all the best this Thanksgiving! (laffin over here) Cheers!

Lindy
Quoting 79. BaltimoreBrian:

(snip)

For the 100th anniversary of E = mc2 and the publication of the Theory of General Relativity, PBS's show NOVA will air "Inside Einstein's Mind" tonight at 9 p.m. eastern. Check local listings.

Note that the complete paper was not published until March 20, 1916.
Note though that apparently the formula E=mc2 was published in 1905, according to Google; it was the longer and more complex formula (Rmn - ½ gmnR = 8pG Tmn) which defined Relativity that was written on this date 100 years ago, though not published until later as you noted.
Lot of moisture streaming northeast under tonight's Full Beaver Moon. Moisture been moving across the sky since early mid-afternoon. Somebody's gonna get it. Shoulda checked the dewpoint before I made fudge. Humidity affects candy making... The fudge came out all right anyway.
Wind getting real gutsy this eve. Happy Thanksgiving Winter Storm and Flood Watches.
(central OK, USA)

Oh. trunkmonkey...
You asked for Neo's culinary delights. Did you know Neo's a pie baker, just like (apparently) Xyrus2000?
What's a beaver moon?
Quoting 83. trunkmonkey:

Neapolitan, lets see some pics of your culinary delights!
I'll throw up a few tomorrow. Not as many as last thanksgivings 56, but enough. Pumpkin, apple, coconut cream, strawberry rhubarb pie, chocolate pecan, chocolate cream, minced meat and Apple, plus a pair of banoffee.
Nea please don't throw up tomorrow. (or any other day)

I wish the best for all of your culinary delights and skills.
Nevermind I found beaver moon... Here is a shot of it:

American Air Force personnel celebrate a toasty Thanksgiving stationed in the Pilbara


PHOTO: An aerial photo of the Learmonth Solar Observatory, where American Air Force staff are stationed this Thanksgiving (Reproduced with the permission of the Bureau of Meteorology)
Quoting 94. Neapolitan:

I'll throw up a few tomorrow. Not as many as last thanksgivings 56, but enough. Pumpkin, apple, coconut cream, strawberry rhubarb pie, chocolate pecan, chocolate cream, minced meat and Apple, plus a pair of banoffee.
For this I must say a prayer .....

Oh God, please help me to survive the pictures - nay, the very thoughts - of Nea's culinary delicacies and delights .... my thighs thank you in advance.... Amen.

Quoting 96. Dakster:

Nevermind I found beaver moon... Here is a shot of it:


I would post my shot of a beaver moon, but would certainly catch a serious ban...:)
Quoting 75. Grothar:



My mouth is watering already.

One pie would last about 30 seconds here. I am sure we single-handedly made Betty Crocker a millionaire. The little Grothars and nice, but they are animals when it comes to food.
Many of us were Gro...I still am...just a little more polite about it...>)
Quoting 100. hydrus:

I would post my shot of a beaver moon, but would certainly catch a serious ban...:)


Probably the FIRST photo of a beaver moon I found when googling... You might not survive that ban if you posted it.
Quoting 98. AussieStorm:

American Air Force personnel celebrate a toasty Thanksgiving stationed in the Pilbara


PHOTO: An aerial photo of the Learmonth Solar Observatory, where American Air Force staff are stationed this Thanksgiving (Reproduced with the permission of the Bureau of Meteorology)
Reminds me of all the Coast Guard guys who were assigned to remote Pacific atolls back in the day, when they were responsible for maintaining LORAN stations. Most of them really hated it, but there were a small percentage who loved the isolation and free time they had. I read about one guy who took a correspondence course in woodworking. After three years, he came out as a proficient furniture maker. As he said, there wasn't anything else to do but make furniture. :-) Thanksgiving is also a good time to remember all the men and women of the military, and the militaries of our staunch allies, like the Australians. It's because they stand guard that we can sleep safe in our beds tonight.
Quoting 102. Dakster:



Probably the FIRST photo of a beaver moon I found when googling... You might not survive that ban if you posted it.
I wasn't even brave enough to google it...or at least while Karen was still up. :-)
LOL Sar...
Quoting 102. Dakster:



Probably the FIRST photo of a beaver moon I found when googling... You might not survive that ban if you posted it.
Its rumored I am of good moral standing....I think Its just i like the blog very much, and dont wanna get permanently expunged over beaver moons...:)
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

.25' to .40" in Orlando as showers continue to train in from the East.

That's a nice little shower.
The women in my family say grandma told them a little pish was ok, but don't marry a man unless he's forecast to bring at least 5" tomorrow!
.
Happy Thanksgiving all.
Quoting 91. CaneFreeCR:

Note though that apparently the formula E=mc2 was published in 1905, according to Google; it was the longer and more complex formula (Rmn - gmnR = 8pG Tmn) which defined Relativity that was written on this date 100 years ago, though not published until later as you noted.


Yeah, special relativity was the easy part. Once you start dealing with accelerating reference frames and such, things rapidly become much more complicated. Nothing like dredging up memories of tensor calculus to make one want to cover their head under a blanket and think of a happy place. :)
Sandra is a small pin compared to the storms cruising the nw pacific
just want to stop in and wish DOC and everyone here..a very HAPPY THANKSGIVING.
Nuclear Event in United States of America on November 26 2015 04:33 AM (UTC).
A mechanical problem led to a brief outage at Xcel Energy's nuclear plant in Monticello this week. And while the company assured the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that the health and safety of the public was never in any danger, that was not the case for some of the fish in the Mississippi River outside the plant. When the plant went offline, its normally balmy discharge water suddenly went cold. Xcel reported that it counted 59 dead fish after the incident. An official with the Department of Natural Resources tells the Star Tribune the water temperature during nuclear plant outages can drop from 65 degrees down to 40 degrees. The DNR tells the newspaper the dead fish in Monticello were bass, crappies, sunfish, catfish, and carp. A similar unplanned shutdown at the plant in January of 2014 left about 2,000 fish dead.
Happy Thanksgiving!

Considering lately I only come here to complain, hopefully this is a welcome change. >_>
Quoting 106. hydrus:

Its rumored I am of good moral standing....I think Its just i like the blog very much, and dont wanna get permanently expunged over .. {snip} moons...:)


When I was looking for a propeller screw for a Cox .049 engine about ten years ago I googled it.

The first 400,000 hits had nothing to do with the Cox .049 engine.
Quoting 113. LargoFl:


At least 2 Hurricanes in December, both hitting CONUS, and one as a major.
Quoting 114. Skyepony:

Nuclear Event in United States of America on November 26 2015 04:33 AM (UTC).
A mechanical problem led to a brief outage at Xcel Energy's nuclear plant in Monticello this week. And while the company assured the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that the health and safety of the public was never in any danger, that was not the case for some of the fish in the Mississippi River outside the plant. When the plant went offline, its normally balmy discharge water suddenly went cold. Xcel reported that it counted 59 dead fish after the incident. An official with the Department of Natural Resources tells the Star Tribune the water temperature during nuclear plant outages can drop from 65 degrees down to 40 degrees. The DNR tells the newspaper the dead fish in Monticello were bass, crappies, sunfish, catfish, and carp. A similar unplanned shutdown at the plant in January of 2014 left about 2,000 fish dead.

WOW! wt!@$? I really want to know more about this. And, Happy Thanksgiving everyone...
Quoting 76. beell:

I always do my share when it comes to holiday food preparation.
Done.




I wanted to start the day with a good laugh and I knew that I could find one here... This and the beaver moon, too funny! But, on the not so funny side, did anyone expect hurricane Sandra to RI? 145mph this morning...WOW
As I am being named in the blog header, I thought I better pop in to check out my state of play - hopefully I don't do much damage!

Happy Thanksgiving to all on that side of the pond:)

sandiquiz - aka Sandra in the UK

Quoting 120. Loduck:

I wanted to start the day with a good laugh and I knew that I could find one here... This and the beaver moon, too funny! But, on the not so funny side, did anyone expect hurricane Sandra to RI? 145mph this morning...WOW


There are always clear indicators of an environment that is conducive to rapid intensification; low shear/good shear direction, high moisture, good outflow/inflow (look at that expansive outflow shield to the north), and plenty of oceanic heat content.

The intensity guidance may not always pick up on it until it happens, and the NHC will rarely go above the guidance as an understandable nod to their capabilities. But honestly, I doubt anybody was actually caught off guard.
Quoting 120. Loduck:

I wanted to start the day with a good laugh and I knew that I could find one here... This and the beaver moon, too funny! But, on the not so funny side, did anyone expect hurricane Sandra to RI? 145mph this morning...WOW
Among our own observers, TA13 predicted RI three days ago. You can be sure forecasters at the NHC saw the same thing, but they weren't going to predict it until the guidance caught up with reality. Given the conditions Sandra has been in, it has been following the meteorological path of Patricia. Sandra has gotten as strong as it's going to get, it appears, and it will now weaken as rapidly as it intensified.
Quoting 121. sandiquiz:

As I am being named in the blog header, I thought I better pop in to check out my state of play - hopefully I don't do much damage!

Happy Thanksgiving to all on that side of the pond:)

sandiquiz - aka Sandra in the UK


Good morning/afternoon, Sandi. Good to see you again. Your namesake has been quite a performer. I hope your weather is reasonably benign. Almost perfect here in Alabama. Going to a high of about 75 after an overnight low 51 with no rain in sight until at least Monday.
125. Inyo
Meanwhile winter is nowhere to be seen in Vermont whereas last year on Thanksgiving we had a dump of snow. Last year was way too cold and this winter so far looks like it at least starts as a dud. Too bad we can't just have an 'average' winter but maybe they don't exist anymore... or never did in Vermont.
Quoting 118. Loduck:

WOW! wt!@$? I really want to know more about this. And, Happy Thanksgiving everyone...
Happy Thanksgiving as well. It was a failure of a sensor on a recirculation pump. The computer automatically shut down the pump circuit, and the warm water was contained in the reactor until the technicians confirmed the pump was operable. They then overrode the automatic sensor and restarted the pump. In the meantime, the plant was discharging water that was at the same temperature as the intake water. It had the same effect as the failure of a heater in an aquarium. One fish get used to warm water, a sudden change to cooler water will kill some of them. BTW, this all happened on Monday.
Quoting 123. sar2401:

Among our own observers, TA13 predicted RI three days ago. You can be sure forecasters at the NHC saw the same thing, but they weren't going to predict it until the guidance caught up with reality. Given the conditions Sandra has been in, it has been following the meteorological path of Patricia. Sandra has gotten as strong as it's going to get, it appears, and it will now weaken as rapidly as it intensified.
Yea, after just checking again, it has dropped back to 130mph. I also thought that it was going to RD-I.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

Happy Thanksgiving as well. It was a failure of a sensor on a recirculation pump. The computer automatically shut down the pump circuit, and the warm water was contained in the reactor until the technicians confirmed the pump was operable. They then overrode the automatic sensor and restarted the pump. In the meantime, the plant was discharging water that was at the same temperature as the intake water. It had the same effect as the failure of a heater in an aquarium. One fish get used to warm water, a sudden change to cooler water will kill some of them. BTW, this all happened on Monday.
Thanks...I was hoping that it wasn't a serious issue.
Quoting 117. eyewallblues:

At least 2 Hurricanes in December, both hitting CONUS, and one as a major.


Perfect example of why these models are useless that far out.
Sandra- Last 24hrs MIMIC. can't get into RAMMB (colostate) and some other NOAA sites this morning for satellite shots. Can't find her here either.
131. beell
Quoting 119. justmehouston:

.


Happy Thanksgiving, jmh (aka txjac)!

The food before us, the friends/family around us, the weather between us.

Quoting 115. KoritheMan:

Happy Thanksgiving!

Considering lately I only come here to complain, hopefully this is a welcome change. >_>
Hi Kori. Looks like another year about to end with no chases. We'll see if we really get a La Nina next year and what it does to hurricane landfalls in the CONUS. I'm starting to have less faith in predictions about that lately, given what we've seen this year. At any rate, Happy Thanksgiving.
Quoting 128. Loduck:

Thanks...I was hoping that it wasn't a serious issue.
No, it wasn't. Things like this happen frequently at fossil fuel plants. The difference is they aren't nukes, so they don't have to be reported to any agency, except maybe the state Public Utilities Commision, and rarely in real time. It's the reporting requirements to the NRC that make it seems like nukes have more problems than other power plants.
Quoting 132. sar2401:

Hi Kori. Looks like another year about to end with no chases. We'll see if we really get a La Nina next year and what it does to hurricane landfalls in the CONUS. I'm starting to have less faith in predictions about that lately, given what we've seen this year. At any rate, Happy Thanksgiving.


Less faith? I actually have more faith. We had the biggest summer ridge in awhile, so a trough wasn't the reason the US got lucky. Shear was. Stockpile that onto a possible neutral/La Nina next year and we should be far less lucky.
Quoting 130. Skyepony:

Sandra- Last 24hrs MIMIC. can't get into RAMMB (colostate) and some other NOAA sites this morning for satellite shots. Can't find her here either.


Probably related:

GOES-13 (GOES-East) Sounder instrument is experiencing an anomaly. GOES-13 Sounder IR data is not available. All products from GOES-13 (GOES-East) Sounder IR data have been halted and distribution has been stopped. Engineers are investigating the problem.


Link
Models are still a little all over with landfall 48-72 hours out. There is a large gradient in Sea Surface Temps in the area further complicating intensity. It's a small storms so it may be be more intense but over a smaller area. Highest I'll say cat 2 at landfall, probably a Cat 1 or Tropical Storm, could even be a remnant low.. The farther north she goes the better chance of being a weaker storm.



Happy Thanksgiving, enjoy the time with friends, family, or whoever you find yourself with on this day. Be good to each other.
Quoting 136. Skyepony:

Models are still a little all over with landfall 48-72 hours out. There is a large gradient in Sea Surface Temps in the area further complicating intensity. It's a small storms so it may be be more intense but over a smaller area. Highest I'll say cat 2 at landfall, probably a Cat 1 or Tropical Storm. The farther north she goes the better chance of a Tropical storm.




Might even be a remnant low depending on speed of forward motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 15.7N 110.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.3N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 21.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 23.4N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 28.1N 104.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting 134. KoritheMan:



Less faith? I actually have more faith. We had the biggest summer ridge in awhile, so a trough wasn't the reason the US got lucky. Shear was. Stockpile that onto a possible neutral/La Nina next year and we should be far less lucky.
Less faith in terms of the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Eleven storms, with four hurricanes and two majors is a slightly above average, something I didn't expect in the face of a El Supremo Jefe El Nino. Of course, I'm probably still a little miffed that my 8-2-1 prediction isn't going to get me a cookie. :-)
Quoting 139. sar2401:

Less faith in terms of the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Eleven storms, with four hurricanes and two majors is a slightly above average, something I didn't expect in the face of a El Supremo Jefe El Nino. Of course, I'm probably still a little miffed that my 8-2-1 prediction isn't going to get me a cookie. :-)


I might post my post-hurricane season blog summation on here, even if I'm trying to avoid coming here as often as possible now.

I'll start working on it on the 30th.
Quoting 117. eyewallblues:

At least 2 Hurricanes in December, both hitting CONUS, and one as a major.
What the GFS predicted for Sunday on Tuesday -



What it's predicting for Sunday now -



Do you really want to put your faith in the GFS right now? The ECMWF doesn't see this storm at all. If we're going to get anything in the next five days, it will come from a low that develops over the Carolinas as the the slow moving cold front moves east, and even that's a low probability event right now.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone !!! Don't pet any cows, Astro !!!
Quoting 143. sar2401:

What the GFS predicted for Sunday on Tuesday -



What it's predicting for Sunday now -



Do you really want to put your faith in the GFS right now? The ECMWF doesn't see this storm at all. If we're going to get anything in the next five days, it will come from a low that develops over the Carolinas as the the slow moving cold front moves east, and even that's a low probability event right now.


The isobaric distribution in that second image doesn't really strike me as tropical anyway. Not sure what he's talking about.
22 Lb Tom is Done. One Jim Beam Shot in the Java, now on to the yam baking .
Yuk,yuk,yuk...



Happy Thanksgiving WUnderland from New Orleans !!
Sar~ Thanks, I rewrote that. Especially after how Rick went. Main point is uncertainty. Might be a little lost without some adt & other things we can usually access. Found a pic..it really does look like it's weakening now.

Quoting 147. Skyepony:

Sar~ Thanks, I rewrote that. Especially after how Rick went. Main point is uncertainty. Might be a little lost without some adt & other things we can usually access. Found a pic..it really does look like it's weakening now.


Good morning Skye..Outflow looks good on the west side..Impressive for so late in the year.
Well we hoping the Guidance for this one is off as the last one that came thru here (Patricia) with a front was a douser.

Almost TS conditions for a spell here too with dat one.





Quoting 114. Skyepony:

Nuclear Event in United States of America on November 26 2015 04:33 AM (UTC).
A mechanical problem led to a brief outage at Xcel Energy's nuclear plant in Monticello this week. And while the company assured the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that the health and safety of the public was never in any danger, that was not the case for some of the fish in the Mississippi River outside the plant. When the plant went offline, its normally balmy discharge water suddenly went cold. Xcel reported that it counted 59 dead fish after the incident. An official with the Department of Natural Resources tells the Star Tribune the water temperature during nuclear plant outages can drop from 65 degrees down to 40 degrees. The DNR tells the newspaper the dead fish in Monticello were bass, crappies, sunfish, catfish, and carp. A similar unplanned shutdown at the plant in January of 2014 left about 2,000 fish dead.



Fish are very sensitive to temperature changes. If anyone has ever had an aquarium they've probably found that out the hard way at least once. :P
Quoting 148. hydrus:

Good morning Skye..Outflow looks good on the west side..Impressive for so late in the year.

Quite impressive..

947 MB. ...STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.


Wrapping up my cooking. Ended up roasting the turkey. The weather never really settled to nice meat smoking weather. Had good rain overnight and some fleeting showers since.

0957 PM TSTM WND GST MELBOURNE AIRPORT 28.10N 80.64W
11/25/2015 M45 MPH BREVARD FL ASOS

WIND GUST FROM THE NORTHEAST IN A FAST MOVING HEAVY
SHOWER, NO THUNDER.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 114. Skyepony:

Nuclear Event in United States of America on November 26 2015 04:33 AM (UTC).
A mechanical problem led to a brief outage at Xcel Energy's nuclear plant in Monticello this week. And while the company assured the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that the health and safety of the public was never in any danger, that was not the case for some of the fish in the Mississippi River outside the plant. When the plant went offline, its normally balmy discharge water suddenly went cold. Xcel reported that it counted 59 dead fish after the incident. An official with the Department of Natural Resources tells the Star Tribune the water temperature during nuclear plant outages can drop from 65 degrees down to 40 degrees. The DNR tells the newspaper the dead fish in Monticello were bass, crappies, sunfish, catfish, and carp. A similar unplanned shutdown at the plant in January of 2014 left about 2,000 fish dead.



I didn't realize native species were that sensitive to rapid cooling.