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Destructive Windstorm Rips across Northwest U.S.; TS Rick Forms in Northeast Pacific

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2015

One of the most widespread and damaging bouts of high wind to strike the Northwest U.S. in years tore down trees and power lines and knocked vehicles off roadways from Washington to the northern Great Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday. At one point, high wind warnings covered nearly 1 million square kilometers, or more than 10% of the contiguous United States (thanks to Stu Ostro at The Weather Channel for this tidbit). Washington governor Jay Inslee declared a state of emergency for all counties in the state on Wednesday. According to weather.com, at least four deaths were reported, and more than 1 million people in several states have been affected by power outages, in some cases for hours or days. Avista, the utility that serves the Spokane, Washington, area, said the windstorm was "the most devastating natural disaster the utility has faced in its 126 year history," with more than 100,000 customers still without power as of Thursday afternoon (thanks to WU member fred37 for calling this to our attention). A sampling of the most impressive wind reports:

Spokane, WA: 71 mph. This was the strongest wind ever recorded at Spokane International Airport apart from thunderstorms.
Mission Ridge Ski Area, WA: 137 mph
Colburn, ID (5 miles west): 101 mph
Chadron, NE: 75 mph



Figure 1. Eastbound traffic lanes, right, on Interstate 90 are dampened by wind-driven waves from the south as the floating bridge calms Lake Washington to the north, left, Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015, in Seattle. Image credit: AP Photo/Elaine Thompson.


Figure 2. Jay Bly checks out the damage to his home in Spokane, Wash., Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2015, after a Norway spruce fell on his house the day before. Image credit: Colin Mulvany/The Spokesman-Review via AP.


Figure 3. Wind trace from atop the Mesa Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, from 7:49 am MDT Tuesday, November 18, 2015, to 7:49 am MDT Wednesday. The peak gust was 94.4 mph just after 7 am Wednesday. Image credit: NCAR/RAL Real-Time Weather Data.


The wind-prone areas of Colorado’s Front Range, between Interstate 25 and the foothills of the Rockies, got hammered by this windstorm, with a number of car windows left shattered. Wind gusted to 95 mph in Lyons; 94 mph at the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Mesa Laboratory, which sits just above Boulder; and to 102 mph at (fittingly) the National Wind Technology Center, a few miles to the south of Boulder. At Colorado State University in Fort Collins, a gust to 77 mph was the second-strongest since records began in 1997, behind only 84 mph on December 30, 2008, according to Dan Lindsey (CSU/CIRA). I don’t have a wind report from my own place in Louisville, just east of Boulder, but my frame house was groaning during the peak of the storm!

El Niño not strongly linked with major Northwest windstorms
Boulder is one of the largest U.S. cities prone to extreme downslope winds (warm chinooks and cold boras). An informal catalog of high wind events in Boulder since the 1960s, maintained by NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, shows that major windstorms have occurred in both El Niño and La Niña years. The “super” El Niño winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were both skimpy on high-wind events in Boulder. Likewise, El Niño is not typically associated with damaging windstorms over the Northwest U.S. Data compiled by the University of Washington’s Cliff Mass show that the eight years from 1860 to 2000 associated with the most destructive Pacific Northwest windstorms all had Niño3.4 anomalies between +1.0°C and -1.0°C for the November-to-February period. In other words, these were either neutral, weak El Niño, or weak La Niña years. “Big windstorms AVOID strong El Nino years. Similar to vampires and garlic,” says Mass. “But there can be moderate storms in El Nino years and it appears that the very strongest years (like 97-98) had plenty of coastal storms.” Although eastern Washington experienced some of its highest winds on record this week, Mass dubbed the winds in the Puget Sound area of western Washington (gusts to 30-45 mph over land and 40-60 mph over water) “substantial but not record breaking.”

The culprit for this large-scale high wind event was an extremely powerful jet stream (see Figure 4 below) that arrived in Washington from the west, then angled east-southeast as it arced toward the Plains north of a strong ridge of high pressure off the California coast. The anticyclonic orientation of the flow favored downward motion that allowed very strong upper-level winds to mix toward the surface, especially in the lee of mountain ranges. Ahead of this strong jet, the powerful upper-level storm that fueled severe weather over the central and southeastern United States over the last several days has lifted northeast into Canada, leaving behind a front that remains remarkably well-defined on satellite near the Appalachians (see Figure 5 below).


Figure 4. WunderMap depiction of winds at 12Z (7:00 am EDT) Thursday, November 19, 2015, at the 200-millibar level, or about 38,000 feet. A powerful jet continues to arc across the western United States.


Figure 5. Visible GOES-13 satellite image from 1600Z (11:00 am EDT) Thursday, November 19, 2015. Image credit: NOAA-NASA Goes Project.


Rainy night in Nunavut
The channel of warm, moist southerly flow ahead of the front and upper-level storm shown in Figures 4 and 5 will bring a rare night of November rain to Iqaluit, the capitol of Nunavut, Canada. Located about 200 miles south of the Arctic Circle (see Figure 6), Iqaluit averages 59” of snow but just 0.03” of rainfall from November through April. Its average daily high on November 19 is 12°F. On Thursday night, after a sunset at 2:26 pm, Iqaluit is expecting rain and temperatures in the upper 30s.


Figure 6. Departures from average temperature at 12Z Thursday, November 19, 2015. Image credit: Climate Reanalyzer/University of Maine.


Late-season Tropical Storm Rick forms in Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Rick formed on Thursday morning in the record-warm Pacific waters off the southwest coast of Mexico, becoming one of the latest-forming tropical storms in the history of the Eastern Pacific. Since accurate records began in 1949 (with higher-quality satellite records beginning in 1971), the Eastern Pacific has seen only four tropical storms form after November 18: December 5, 1983 (Winnie), November 27, 1971 (Sharon), November 27, 1951 (Unnamed), and November 20, 2011 (Kenneth.) None of these storms hit land. Rick is also not expected to hit land; after a two-day period of intensification on Thursday and Friday, wind shear will increase over Rick this weekend, likely destroying the storm by Monday. Both the GFS and European models are advertising the possibility of another tropical storm forming in a similar location early next week.


Figure 7. MODIS image of Typhoon In-fa taken at 03:00 UTC November 18, 2015. At the time, In-fa was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon In-fa expected to pass south of Guam
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon In-fa is tracking west-northwest on a path that is expected to take the storm about 200 miles south of Guam on Saturday. In-fa became a typhoon on Wednesday unusually far to the south--at 5.8°N. According to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach, this is the farthest south that a typhoon has formed since Typhoon Bopha of 2012 (3.8°N). In-fa is not expected to hit any land areas, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts that the storm will top out at Category 3 strength this weekend.

The Atlantic is quiet with no tropical cyclone formation expected for the next five days.

Bob Henson (windstorm), Jeff Masters (tropical)


Winter Weather Extreme Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dynamic duo.

Tropical Storm Rick.
In figure 2, that tree looks to be somewhat old. With the way it fell, is there anyway that they can just pull the tree back to it's original position and stabilize it rather then just cutting it?
Thanks men!
(from last blog)
Quoting 346. indianrivguy:

yes, and that is part of the cause. The deep injection of waste fracking fluids has slicked up previously unknown faults. The New Madrid fault crosses this area too. My friend and fellow Waterkeeper Earl Hatley, our Grand Riverkeeper has been working to stop the deep injection for years. He tells me that a HUGE disaster is just waiting to happen at the Cushing Oil Storage Facility (largest in WORLD). He says that NONE of the storage tanks were designed for earthquakes and that it is a real possibility that given a strong enough tremor, all of them could shake and breach at once.

more on that if you are interested; This is a PDF about reactivated faults...


I saw last night that California's Oil & Gas Regulator had ordered a utilities company in charge of what is believed to be the largest Natural Gas storage facility out west to come up with some plan to fix the leak it has had for near a month. That one is located right outside Los Angles, CA and runs a half mile deep. The fumes are making nearby residence as well as workers sick.

Steve Bohlen, the state's oil and gas supervisor, said he issued the order "to prevent damage to life, health, property, or natural resources."
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin Description
20:30 PM IST November 19 2015
============================

Tropical Disturbances/Cyclones Outside India
------------------------------------------------- ---------
Vortex (94S) over south Indian Ocean centered near 7.7S 77.3E.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Thanks for the Update Gentlemen....
2016 Hurricane season could be very interesting. The ESNO models are showing a very strong La Nina.
Good evening folks, and thanks, Doc and Bob. I'm glad we are able once again to plus your excellent posts!

Cannot match the dramatic weather events mentioned above with our latest European experiences. We've very well survived windstorms Barney/Heini and Iwan whose winds didn't mix down much at my place mid Germany near Frankfurt. Further north, at the coast and on top of some mountains there were gales with hurricane force though. But damage was limited.

A lot of rain was/is forecast with this west drift from the Atlantic which would be very welcome for the southern half of Germany, especially in my region where it barely rained since February. But results so far were, of course: rains passed north of me, and tomorrow the downpours will probably happen south of me (grrrr).

Late this afternoon I took some photos of our little marina in Mainz. Guess you can see how extraordinary low water levels of Rhine River are right now. The steps in the first pic to the left usually end at (or even below) the surface of the water. Right now the boats wouldn't be able to leave the harbour at all, as there is barely any water left. Usually at this time of the year they would have been dry-docked, but the drought took their owners by surprise. Hope this will change, once some rain further south near the Alps and Black Forest will start to fill up the rivers and creeks.







Moreover we'll see a cold spell for some days which would end the unusual warmth this month:
Weathermen warn of snowy weekend ahead
The Local (Germany); Published: 19 Nov 2015 16:30 GMT 01:00
Although November has been relatively warm and dry so far, the weekend is likely to see snow at the lowest altitudes yet this winter ...
Quoting 8. stoormfury:
2016 Hurricane season could be very interesting. The ESNO models are showing a very strong La Nina.
With the spring time barrier to ENSO predictability, I'm not running out to buy plywood.
Quoting 392. pablosyn:



Oh, But tornadoes in the Southern Hemisphere do not rotate clockwise? Just as tropical cyclones.

The life cycle you can see here i recorded the radar animation: Facebook
WU gets a shout out from Vox

El Niño, explained: A guide to the biggest weather story of 2015


Excerpt:

Further reading:

NOAA's ENSO blog is a terrific source of information for updates on El Niño. Weather Underground also posts frequent insightful updates.
Thanks for the updates Dr Masters and Mr Henson!
Think it might get cold in Wyoming if this turns out...

Big pattern change over the next few days for the UK, with much colder air coming down from the arctic and with snow settling in the hills/mountains of the UK. Possibly even some settling at lower levels and some snow flurries even in the southern parts of the UK are possible.

Current temperature anomalies:



Saturday's temperature anomalies:



The wind will be strong, so temperatures are likely to feel a few degrees or so below the actual values as well due to wind chill. The weather will spread across large parts of western/central europe and some significant snowfall is likely across the moutains, with notable amounts accumulating at lower levels in some places.



Looks like we skipped most of autumn given how warm it's been and are now being plunged into winter.
I'm loving the forecast of cool weather this weekend in the SE, it's the start of hunting season and it will be nice to not have to battle the bugs while you're trying to sit still in the woods!
Looks like Yap Island could get the worst of the Typhoon and not Guam
Thank You Both for the detailed recap of these recent events; the windstorm portion as to the NW US is fascinating. Now the question is whether we can expect another similar jet configuration anytime soon; it was certainly not the typical El Nino split pattern with this one and it was very pronounced "arch" over Cali then curving back up into the Mid-West. A unique looking configuration sandwiched between the high pressure to West and the strong low over Conus. It looks a little more "normal" today per GFS:



good morning boys and girls......life has turned chilly here in el paso........nights are dropping to freezing....we had our first reports of snow...nothing stuck however...and on the east side where i live we had no snow buy graupel instead.....we also joined the northwest with wind.....gusts only at about 70 though....of course the northwest didn't join us in the dust that came with it...you couldn't see any of the mountains and your nose if outside felt like it was filled with concrete....not sure if these guys were responsible but they did play last weekend.....

Here is the one from two days ago:


Thanks doks!
94S:



Likely to be the first named storm of the 2015-2016 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone Season with all major models showing it developing into a tropical storm. It'll be named Annabelle when it does.
Likely to be the first named storm of the 2015-2016 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone Season with all major models showing it developing into a tropical storm. It'll be named Annabelle when it does.


Gale Warning from RSMC Reunion and is numbered tropical disturbance 1. Forecast to become a moderate tropical storm in 24 hours.
Ecuador declares state of emergency for El Nino
Report from Agence France-Presse, Published on 18 Nov 2015
Ecuador braced for a destructive season of weather caused by the El Nino phenomenon by declaring a 60-day state of emergency Wednesday in its most vulnerable provinces.
President Rafael Correa said the measure would free up "necessary and indispensable" emergency relief in case of disasters caused by El Nino, the cyclical warming of the central Pacific Ocean.
Government data indicate that the water level along Ecuador's Pacific coast is abnormally high, which "puts infrastructure near the shoreline at risk," Correa said.
The emergency is in effect in 17 of the country's 24 provinces. ...


Heatwave to push temperatures above 40C (104F) in parts of Australia
Authorities issue bushfire danger warnings for several states, with hot weather expected to continue into the weekend
The Guardian, Thursday 19 November 2015 00.40 GMT

In the Caribbean, a stinking seaweed menace spurs invention
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Tue, 17 Nov 2015 10:22 GMT
I live in Spokane, and we are experiencing *days* of power outages, not *hours*. The wind storm was the "the most devastating natural disaster the utility has faced in its 126 year history"; this from our regional utility company based in Spokane
I only hope *days* of power outages doesn't turn into *weeks* , but I would not be surpised given the scope of the damage that I've seen.
Thanks Bob and Jeff. That's a big tree on a not so big house...
Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:




We're going to get some rain, just not sure how much will get into the bucket.
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/11/2015
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)


Excerpt:

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/11/20 AT 06 UTC:
9.8 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/11/20 AT 18 UTC:
10.1 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20152016
22:00 PM RET November 19 2015
=================================
Near Diego Garcia

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01 (1005 hPa) located at 9.0S 76.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 9.8S 74.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.1S 72.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 11.5S 72.2E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 13.5S 72.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has shown signs of intensification since this morning. Microwave imagery earlier today and this evening show an improving low level circulation with a better defined circulation center seen on 37 ghz. The convective activity is still fluctuating but increasing banding features are seen just to the south of the estimated center. The upper level divergence is impressive as seen on satellite imagery: excellent in all quadrants except the northeast. ASCAT-B pass at 1622z show that a west-east orientated surface trough exists close to the main circulation in the northwest quadrant. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates that is consistent among the available agencies.

Early fix suggest a rather fast southwestwards motion. Tomorrow over the northern edge of a weak low to mid level subtropical ridge. Friday night, this ridge is expected to weaken, leaving a significant weakness to the south of the system. An equatorial mid level ridge located to the east northeast of the system should gradually steered the system southwards and then southeastwards from Saturday and beyond with a gradual increase in forward motion.

Within the next 12 hours, the rate of intensification should be rather slow due to the marginal low level overall structure as revealed by the ASCAT pass. Beyond with a good upper level environment and high sea surface temperature, some steady strengthening is expected. Sunday, the northerly shear is expected to increase and this should call the end of the favorable window for intensification. The system may be quite small according to numerical weather prediction guidance ... so it is possible that the intensification could be stronger than suggested here.
Quoting 26. fred37:

I live in Spokane, and we are experiencing *days* of power outages, not *hours*. The wind storm was the "the most devastating natural disaster the utility has faced in its 126 year history"; this from our regional utility company based in Spokane
I only hope *days* of power outages doesn't turn into *weeks* , but I would not be surpised given the scope of the damage that I've seen.
Thanks for the info Fred.
I just grabbed this from the Avista (Spokane Utility) Website
Link
Information about November 17th Storms

Update 11/18 at 3:00 pm: Crews continue to assess damage done by the storm, and restore power as quickly and safely as possible. Based on what we know at this time, it could take at least 3 to 5 days to restore power to the majority of customers. Safety of our customers and our employees is our top priority. If you see a downed power line, do not go near it, and call 911.

It's important to keep in mind that this is the largest crisis we have experienced in our 126 year history and our entire region has been significantly impacted.

Our crews have been working around the clock since near-hurricane force winds hit the Inland Northwest yesterday leaving approximately 180,000 customers without power at the height of the storm. The majority of the impact remains in Spokane and Kootenai County.

At this hour, 113,000 of the 139,000 customers without power are in Spokane County. We are prioritizing restoration efforts.

Due to the magnitude of damage to the entire region, we are working with City and County emergency officials to ensure efforts for the community are coordinated. Safety remains our top priority.

Resources are available within your local community to provide you with support. If you are in need of services, please call 2-1-1 or (1-877-211-9274). We will continue to update information online, through social media, and through the media. Thank you for your continued patience.
Quoting 35. JNFlori30A:

Thanks for the info Fred.
I just grabbed this from the Avista (Spokane Utility) Website
Link
Information about November 17th Storms

Update 11/18 at 3:00 pm: Crews continue to assess damage done by the storm, and restore power as quickly and safely as possible. Based on what we know at this time, it could take at least 3 to 5 days to restore power to the majority of customers. Safety of our customers and our employees is our top priority. If you see a downed power line, do not go near it, and call 911.

It's important to keep in mind that this is the largest crisis we have experienced in our 126 year history and our entire region has been significantly impacted.

Our crews have been working around the clock since near-hurricane force winds hit the Inland Northwest yesterday leaving approximately 180,000 customers without power at the height of the storm. The majority of the impact remains in Spokane and Kootenai County.

At this hour, 113,000 of the 139,000 customers without power are in Spokane County. We are prioritizing restoration efforts.

Due to the magnitude of damage to the entire region, we are working with City and County emergency officials to ensure efforts for the community are coordinated. Safety remains our top priority.

Resources are available within your local community to provide you with support. If you are in need of services, please call 2-1-1 or (1-877-211-9274). We will continue to update information online, through social media, and through the media. Thank you for your continued patience.


I've added a bit to the first paragraph to the blog to reflect the situation in Spokane. Hope the power comes back soon!
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


No doubt due to HAARP testing!
How about the limb and tree damage along the roads? Any word of FEMA coming in to assist with debris removal. The state and counties have to remove all hazardous limbs and trees from right of ways. Gets incredibly expensive. A federal disaster declaration and the Feds pick up a huge chunk of the tab.

Quite a wind event...hope they get things patched up quickly for you.

Quoting 26. fred37:

I live in Spokane, and we are experiencing *days* of power outages, not *hours*. The wind storm was the "the most devastating natural disaster the utility has faced in its 126 year history"; this from our regional utility company based in Spokane
I only hope *days* of power outages doesn't turn into *weeks* , but I would not be surpised given the scope of the damage that I've seen.
California still has to wait for their rain.



Rowdy Blog lately
From CWG

What happens during the Nov 29-30 when Arctic front comes in? As Wes points out, it's a pattern in which snow can't be ruled out if everything comes together
Quoting 40. SouthCentralTx:

California still has to wait for their rain.







not sure what your talking about and going by the CPC 1 moth and 3 moth so your not helping California has a ch of low snow next week and more rain and California has had a wet NOV in N CA at lest so CA has been getting RAIN and are next chs of rain in on tusday
Ya'll are smart- what is this??

Link
Quoting 42. washingtonian115:

From CWG

What happens during the Nov 29-30 when Arctic front comes in? As Wes points out, it's a pattern in which snow can't be ruled out if everything comes together
Yes, the period after Thanksgiving is looking very interesting. If we get moisture and cold air coming in at the same time, the snow potential rises.
Can't tell the size of it, nothing to give a scale. At first I thought it could be from the El Faro, but looks like it has been in the water a longer amount of time. My guess is it is off a fiberglass boat that has sunk and/or broken up.

It could be from my ship as that is definitely never coming in ;-)




Quoting 45. aquak9:

Ya'll are smart- what is this??

Link

Tornado in Marechal Cândido Rondon - Parana State - South Brazil, today around 04:30 PM (06:30 PM UTC):

Tornado 01

Tornado 02

Tornado 03
Incredible rain event going on here in morehead city, cars stalled out everywhere including my wife's. If I can figure out how to load a picture I will. We have had heavy rain all day and it continues to build right over us.
There are also some indications now that the first week of December will start out cold and a bit stormy.
Quoting 45. aquak9:

Ya'll are smart- what is this??

Link

maybe part of a rotating fiber roller, tumbler cylinder of some type with the extrusions along it in that pattern maybe a mixing device maybe
Quoting 44. Tazmanian:




not sure what your talking about and going by the CPC 1 moth and 3 moth so your not helping California has a ch of low snow next week and more rain and California has had a wet NOV in N CA at lest so CA has been getting RAIN and are next chs of rain in on tusday


What? I understand you don't know english that well but you can't tell me I don't know what i'm talking about when I am posting the CPCs outlook. So that means they don't know what they are talking about?

Sure California has been getting rain but it's been hardly anything significant to help the drought. I am talking about the big rains in which the CPC is showing in the 3 month period that I certainly hope happen.

Oct 13 drought monitor for California.


Most recent week showing very little improvement. I know it's going to take time.
Good afternoon everyone!

This is my first time to check in to the blog since the storm on Tuesday, as I've just gotten power back at my house!! I've recently moved to Monroe, WA, which is substantially more rural than my urban apartment in Seattle. We lost one tree in the backyard, but it didn't hit the house or anything else, so I for one am grateful. Overall, Tuesday was pretty crazy. I'm a preschool music teacher, and the power went out during a class with 20 three year olds. Needless to say, the rest of class was spent calming them down! That was followed by a hand therapy appointment, that ended in the dark. While I was driving across I90 to my afternoon day care location, there were so many waves the wind shield wipers were useless. It was a slow drive to be sure. Also of note, the WSDOT closed the 520 Bridge (the other bridge over Lake Washington), due to waves (it's lower on the water compared to the I90 bridge so the waves were worse). So traffic was special. Once the winds died down, the real problem was the flooding! It took me 2.5 hours to get to work yesterday morning, and 3 hours to get home due to flooded roads and landslides! Thankfully I don't have any children, as many of the area school districts are closed due to power outages and flooding.

While the landslide threat will still be present for a few days (see rainfall relative to landslide threshold by USGS), there is no rain in the forecast for a few days, and things should calm down.

The flood should recede throughout today and I'm hoping I can get home from work without having to take a detour.

Here are some news articles and websites about the flooding and landslides in Western Washington.

Gov. Inslee declares State of Emergency

WSDOT list of current travel impacts (including accidents, but also the flood and landslide closures)

A current list of school closures for today, two days after the storm.

State route 411 is closed due to landslides.

Of course driving in flood waters is dangerous, Duvall firefighters save man from sinking car.
Quoting 46. Climate175:

Yes, the period after Thanksgiving is looking very interesting. If we get moisture and cold air coming in at the same time, the snow potential rises.
I'm not getting exciting about anything yet.But it would be interesting to see snow around Thanksgiving like we have had for the last two years.
Quoting 44. Tazmanian:





taz got a message for ya from gro he says he saw it first
Quoting 55. washingtonian115:

I not getting exciting about anything yet.But it would be interesting to see snow around Thanksgiving like we have had for the last two years.
Yea, really no reason to, with it being two weeks away, and it would be the conventional snow showers or flurries. I don't expect to see accumulating snow until next month.
Looks like sun is beginning to peek through the clouds now, Just in time for the sunset, maybe it will be a pink-red sky as it is going down.
Quoting 46. Climate175:

"If we get moisture and cold air coming in at the same time, the snow potential rises."


Dat's some daggum advanced meteorology right thare! ;-)


_
Quoting 60. JazzChi:



Dat's some daggum advanced meteorology right thare! ;-)


_
LOL!
Quoting 56. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

taz got a message for ya from gro he says he saw it first



LOL! tell that old fart that i said be seen noting 1st
gonna be cooler than has been Friday morning
Just got my Calendar for next week at work and realized that Thanksgiving is next week...........The last six months have just flown by................................... :) Will save this for next week (again) but hoping that we will all take the time to be thankful for what we have and hoping the best (weather wise) for our folks in the NW (that they may have power restored by next Wednesday when their families get together and get ready to cook).
#45:
Looks like some type of stabilization or trim device for a watercraft - maybe a smuggler's home-made sub?
Why is my comment bolded?
Quoting 45. aquak9:

Ya'll are smart- what is this??

Link



The detail/welding is too nice for a smugglers boat and I have never seen such a configuration on a civilian craft. I am gonna guess a piece from some type of military ship or testing vehicle. Considering the flow of the Gulf Stream, and ability to carry such an object thousands of miles, it could have come up to Jax from anywhere (South America, the Caribbean, from the US Navy testing facility in the Bahamas, or anywhere else in between).......Or part of a Naval test project/vehicle right out of Mayport in Jax...........That is my best guess.
likely area of snow in lower central lakes region saturday bulk of precip north of 5400 line will be of frozen type



hr 57 sun 3z
does not look too bad maybe a few cm's that will melt as soon as the sun shines on it
looks a little wet across some of fla

up too Monday time frame

Quoting 45. aquak9:

Ya'll are smart- what is this??

Link


Condominium for retired barnacles.
71. vis0

Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe part of a rotating fiber roller, tumbler cylinder of some type with the extrusions along it in that pattern maybe a mixing device maybe
i cannot get the link to load the NBC pg so i'm taking a wild guess as to a recent event. Not to be morbid or start rumors so i wont use specific names, it was a certain ship lost in a recent storm what was it carrying?
Quoting 71. vis0:


i cannot get the link to load the NBC pg so i'm taking a wild guess as to a recent event. Not to be morbid or start rumors so i wont use specific names, it was a certain ship lost in a recent storm what was it carrying?

mostly containers I believe this is not a container and that was a month ago the growth on this object looks like 3 or 4 months worth
Quoting 71. vis0:


i cannot get the link to load the NBC pg so i'm taking a wild guess as to a recent event. Not to be morbid or start rumors so i wont use specific names, it was a certain ship lost in a recent storm what was it carrying?

here is the object



The Jacksonville Beach Lifeguard Captain said he isn't sure what it is or where it came from.


He said it appears to be made out of fiberglass or some sort of flexible material and that it could have been in the water for a few months, because of the barnacle growth on it.
Man did we get major drought help, way more than I was expecting. Yesterday's forecast rainfall here in Tallahassee was around a half inch. That first squall line yesterday evening came through fast but still dumped 1.12 in about a half hour. After Midnight a 2nd line developed and remained stalled in the area for a few hours. We ended up picking up an additional 2.14 after mid night. Some areas south and southeast of here had 5-8 inches locally. In total, we had 1.12 for yesterday, 2.14 for today, and a 24 hour total of 3.26.

This is the 2nd 3 inch event in 24 hours this month, and today is the 2nd 2 inch day this month. We are now at 8.65 for the month of November. This is now the wettest month I've recorded in the rain gauge here since December 2014!

Now yes, I don't live here during the summer, but based on area wide data, summer rainfall was well below average area wide here, with the whole Tallahassee area getting no more than 2-4 inches each month at best from May into August.
Keep in mind we had a severe drought going into November around here, I had less than 3.5 inches combined since moving back from August 22nd to October 31st. Who would have thought November would end up being so active? I'm thankful though, we needed it!
rtn flow thanksgiving day

Winds here are nuts. Gusts are TS force. Snow coming down too.
And just last week there was a strong storm.

I get the feeling that storms like these will be the NORM for this winter.
An interesting few days coming up for south Florida...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
432 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT HAS
PUSHED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, BRINGING A MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE HAS REMAINED OVER
THE AREA, AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SLOWLY APPROACH THE
CWA TONIGHT. BY MID-DAY TOMORROW, THE FRONT WILL STALL, PROBABLY
JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL POSSIBLY
SOMEWHAT HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE FRONT IS AROUND.
BUT, THIS MAY ONLY KEEP MOST CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 2
INCHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A JET STREAK MOVING OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY LATE TOMORROW. THIS COULD HELP GENERATE SOME HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS, OF COURSE, UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE JET, AND ANY SMALL CHANGE WILL
CHANGE THIS. STILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, ANOTHER JET MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS
KEEP IT FURTHER NORTH, BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
IT BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN. LOOKING AT THE 5 DAY
PRECIP TOTAL FROM WPC, THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL OFF
SHORE OF THE TREASURE COAST. BUT, THEY STILL HAVE 2 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE 24 HOUR TOTALS ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH. SO, HAVE KEPT THINGS
JUST AS TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE BUSIEST WEATHER DAY, AS THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG. THE PWATS WILL GO FROM AROUND 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT
DOWN TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BEHIND IT. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SLOWLY PICKS UP, GENERALLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE CLOUD COVER
AFFECT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. CURRENTLY, WENT
WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY. LIKELY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, AND A LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG
THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES IN. FORECAST
HIGHS MONDAY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ARE IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE COLDER TEMPS WEST OF
THE LAKE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE NORTH, BEHIND THE
FRONT, WE WILL SEE AN EASTERLY FLOW RETURN, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL
WARM UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
Quoting 45. aquak9:

Ya'll are smart- what is this??

Link



"Aliens" ;-)
Hi, everyone. We're just about there on restoring the "plus" functionality to the blogs. All of you should now again be able to +1 this blog and others as desired. The one exception is your own blog, where you won't see the plus icon at upper right. It's proving a bit more complicated to restore that functionality, but we hope to have it back in the next few days. Thanks once again for your patience!
80. vis0

Quoting 62. Tazmanian:




LOL! tell that old...
Grothar, Taz sent you a comment here it is::

of course of all people i shouldn't pick on Taz's spelling here is my message in Inglish::


NYC weather (zip 10016) rain is constant seems tropical-ish in that it is continuous with light sheets of rain but i am not getting that Tropical feeling as to the LOW
12.5N/78.5W "could" get interesting looks like a surface low maybe forming!
Extraordinary. Do we know if this is upper level only?

If nothing else, if it can work itself down to the surface, it could quite a wave maker.

Quoting 82. Grothar:




Quoting 84. Grothar:


Florida shield is up since 2005. I wonder if next year will be the year? You think we have a higher risk of being hit next year if we go to La Niña or do you think we need something more like a flip to a positive AMO? My opinion is a La Niña won't be enough, since we saw a La Niña in 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011 and no hurricane landfalls were observed, at least in regards to Florida. I feel like I should discuss this with you, Grothar, since you have been around a lot longer than me and even some of the other bloggers on here, but does this seem unusual to you and has there been a time that something similar like this happened that you can recall?



The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Impacts, mechanisms & projections
David Enfield, Chunzai Wang, Sang-ki Lee
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Lab Miami, Florida

Also, illustrates the impacts these oscillation phases have on the river and lake flows in South Florida, such as the Peace River and Lake Okeechobee.
Out of all my time here I have never complained about the naming of winter storms. I am speaking out this time.

I need someone to tell me what parameters verifies the need for Bella for this next storm. I understand there will be snow in the Rockies, snow across the mid west..... But there will be nothing else to warrant naming it. Except for cold, it will have almost no effect for the weather EAST of the Ms. River.
Rick should be on a weakening trend as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures, a stable airmass, and stronger wind shear.







The cone of not so doom.

Quoting 85. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Florida shield is up since 2005. I wonder if next year will be the year? You think we have a higher risk of being hit next year if we go to La Niña or do you think we need something more like a flip to a positive AMO? My opinion is a La Niña won't be enough, since we saw a La Niña in 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011 and no hurricane landfalls were observed, at least in regards to Florida. I feel like I should discuss this with you, Grothar, since you have been around a lot longer than me and even some of the other bloggers on here, but does this seem unusual to you and has there been a time that something similar like this happened that you can recall?



The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Impacts, mechanisms & projections
David Enfield, Chunzai Wang, Sang-ki Lee
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Lab Miami, Florida

Also, illustrates the impacts these oscillation phases have on the river and lake flows in South Florida, such as the Peace River and Lake Okeechobee.



Simply, Caleb, this is not the climate I remember. As you know, I spent a lot of my youth in Europe and in the US. No, I do not remember anything like what we are observing. To have 3 strong el Ninos in a relatively short time seems unusual to me. It would appear that next year, we should be in a la Nina.



Quoting 83. HaoleboySurfEC:

Extraordinary. Do we know if this is upper level only?

If nothing else, if it can work itself down to the surface, it could quite a wave maker.




It appears to be a ULL right now, but some models develop it and some don't. I believe the EURO pulled back on development.
\

Rick, you're no Patricia.
Quoting 83. HaoleboySurfEC:

Extraordinary. Do we know if this is upper level only?

If nothing else, if it can work itself down to the surface, it could quite a wave maker.




If you look closely at the satellite loop, you will see strong northerly winds, on the back side, of the Low at the surface. Due to this we are expecting a long period of northerly swells over here in the NE Caribbean. We are expecting 6 to 8 foot waves starting tomorrow lasting until sometime early next week. Today we only had 2 to 4 foot waves. Cant imagine how nice them waves will be breaking starting tomorrow.



THIS NEXT STRONG TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY
WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD
RETURN ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL MOVE NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COUPLED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...BANDED PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIKELY WITH
PROBABLY SOME ISO/SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT SHOULD SOME OF THESE BANDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH STRONGER STORMS TAPPING THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME BANDS OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL BE BLOWING THROUGH WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


Are the Houston pro-mets looking for any severe thunderstorms with this frontal passage or will just be a little bit of rain?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
Gale Warning
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20152016
4:00 AM RET November 20 2015
=================================
Near Diego Garcia

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01 (1003 hPa) located at 9.8S 74.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 10.2S 73.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.5S 72.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 11.6S 72.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 13.4S 73.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================
The convective activity has still fluctuated during the last 6 hours associated with broken convective features. Since 2100z and with the favorable diurnal cycle, the thunderstorm activity is increasing near the center and also within peripheral bands (mainly to the south). Slight improvement of the banding features is still seen. The upper level divergence remains impressive on satellite imagery with a well marked outflow over the northwestern quadrant and all the southern sector. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates that is fairly consistent among the available agencies.

The only available fix tonight (n19 AMSUB at 2118z) suggest that the system has begun to track west southwestwards at still a fast motion. Over the northern edge of a weak low to mid level subtropical ridge, the system should start to slow down today and continue to bend westwards. Friday night, this ridge is expected to weaken, leaving a significant weakness in the pressure field to the south of the system. An equatorial mid level ridge located to the east northeast of the system should gradually steered the system southwards and then southeastwards from Saturday and beyond with a gradual increase in forward motion. The current forecast is between the average of all the available guidance and the average track of UK-GFS-EURO of 1200z.

The rate of intensification is currently slow due to the marginal low level overall structure as revealed earlier tonight by the ASCAT pass. However, this pattern is expected to improve today and with a good upper level environment and high sea surface temperatures, some steady strengthening is likely later today or tonight. Sunday, the northerly shear is forecast to increase and this should call the end of the favorable window for intensification. Most of the guidance suggest a modest tropical cyclone at its best ... and this is reflected in the current intensity forecast. Curiously, the two intermediate runs of the EURO today (at 0600z and 1800z) do not develop more than a tropical depression with this system ...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON IN-FA (1526)
9:00 AM JST November 20 2015
===============================
Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon In-fa (965 hPa) located at 9.9N 148.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 11.2N 143.7E - 80 knots (Cat 3/Strong Typhoon) - Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 13.3N 138.1E - 85 knots (Cat 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 15.9N 134.0E - 85 knots (Cat 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 88. Grothar:




Simply, Caleb, this is not the climate I remember. As you know, I spent a lot of my youth in Europe and in the US. No, I do not remember anything like what we are observing. To have 3 strong el Ninos in a relatively short time seems unusual to me. It would appear that next year, we should be in a la Nina.






That would be the strongest La Nina on record! They say the higher you go, the lower you fall. -2 degrees below hasn't been recorded in the past 65 years.
I apologize if I wasn't specific in my earlier post, so I'll try again.

Is any severe weather expected over South Texas this weekend?
Use the search box at the top right of this page for your local forecast.
Last few images of In-fa looking pretty interesting.



Quoting 96. pureet1948:

I apologize if I wasn't specific in my earlier post, so I'll try again.

Is any severe weather expected over South Texas this weekend?


please see this link this link will tell you all you need too no


Link
Quoting 60. JazzChi:



Dat's some daggum advanced meteorology right thare! ;-)


_


That reminds me a few years ago when my sister-in-law asked my four year old niece if she had wet her bed after waking up in the middle of the night. Without missing a beat my niece said "no, mommy it was raining in my room."
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:



please see this link this link will tell you all you need too no


Link



...SOUTH TEXAS...

HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
BROAD CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY BUT
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE INSTIGATOR FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN TX.
NAM SUGGESTS NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER
COAST AS DEW POINTS APPROACH 70F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HAIL
COULD GENERATE WITHIN THE DEEPEST UPDRAFTS BUT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING/SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. FOR THIS
REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE CAT1 SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD.

This is a little technical for me. Could someone explain it in layman's terms for me?
We're up to 10.5' of rain since the beginning of August, here on the windward side of the Big Island... just saying.
Quoting 104. mountainwx:

We're up to 10.5' of rain since the beginning of August, here on the windward side of the Big Island... just saying.

How high up are you?

Still shot of In-Fa's small eye from Himawari-8, 11-20-15 at 0037UTC. The image has been zoomed & flipped.
Quoting 105. BaltimoreBrian:


How high up are you?

1 block from the ocean
Quoting 106. Skyepony:


Still shot of In-Fa's small eye from Himawari-8, 11-20-15 at 0037UTC. The image has been zoomed & flipped.
Cool pic Skye..Thank you for posting it.
We certainly didn't get much rain across Central Florida today. A lot of light rain with not much accumulation. One small pocket in eastern Pasco and Hillsborough counties got decent rain. Next chance is later on Saturday before the cooler weather finally sets in.
Quoting 90. pureet1948:

\

Rick, you're no Patricia.


I wouldn't give up on Rick just yet. After all, he's never gonna give YOU up.
Winter storm Bella is named.
Quoting 107. mountainwx:

1 block from the ocean
Cool. I thought you might be in the mountains, given your handle.
Quoting 111. Andrebrooks:

Winter storm Bella is named.



YAWN your late i saw it 1st on TWC web site so old news now
Bella's blizzards bring
blustery boreal blasts
barreling briskly.
Quoting 114. Tazmanian:




YAWN your late i saw it 1st on TWC web site so old news now


Be nice Taz



P.S. Anybody remember when this happened? Link
Ahhh yes, the floating bridges...sometimes a wild drive over them. Kinda prefer them over regular bridges...or tunnels like they have in NW UK though! I miss all the ferries in Seattle and the awesome Chinatown area more than anything though...Nom nom Seattle Chinatown LOL

Been very windy and a bit rainy in Merseyside this week. The first winter, named, storms been blowing through. But still been mild. As with Barb in Germany, supposed to change this weekend and arctic air swoop down. No snow forecast here, if looking at WU, maybe get lucky though!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 19 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rick, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

An area of low pressure moving westward across Nicaragua is
forecast to move offshore over the far eastern north Pacific Ocean
on Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development, and a tropical cyclone could form south
or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


hmmm a late season cat 4 or 5 storm? nhc all ready gives this a 40 ch for day 5
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 01-20152016
10:00 AM RET November 20 2015
=================================
Near Diego Garcia

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01 (1000 hPa) located at 10.3S 72.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 16 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 10.6S 72.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.1S 71.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 12.3S 72.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 14.5S 74.3E - 35 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
During the last 6 hours, the system displays some signs of organization with the emergence of a curved band near the center, which seems to strengthen since 0300z. Central mean sea level pressure has been estimated thanks to buoy nb 1400569 which indicated a corrected pressure of 1001.6 at 0400z. Partial ASCAT swath at 0412z indicates maximal winds of 25kt and locally 30kt in the western semi-circle. Considering these elements and the improving system pattern, intensity has been increased to the minimal stage of tropical depression.

The system keeps on heading west southwestward quite quickly on the northern side of a weak subtropical ridge. The last track forecast remains close to the previous one. The system should start to slow down. Friday night, this ridge is expected to weaken, leaving a significant weakness in the pressure field to the south of the system. An equatorial mid level ridge located to the east northeast of the system should gradually steered the system southwards and then southeastwards from Saturday and beyond with a gradual increase in forward motion. The current forecast is between the average of all the available guidance and the average track of UK-GFS-EURO of 1200z.

Today, the organization should continue to improve. With a good upper level environment and high sea surface temperatures, some steady strengthening is likely later today or tonight. Sunday, the northerly shear is forecast to increase and this should call the end of the favorable window for intensification. Most of the guidance suggest a modest tropical cyclone at its best ... and this is reflected in the current intensity forecast.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON IN-FA (1526)
15:00 PM JST November 20 2015
===============================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon In-fa (950 hPa) located at 10.4N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 11.7N 142.4E - 85 knots (Cat 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 14.0N 137.1E - 90 knots (Cat 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 16.5N 133.6E - 90 knots (Cat 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

Major terrorist attack at the Bamako Mali Radisson hotel.

Terrible news anew, Brian. But your link isn't working.
BBC has its Africa live report on this. Compassionate thoughts und prayers for the hostages!!
Barbara I was trying to link the BBC story myself. Thanks for pointing that out, it should work now. The French have a sizable presence in Mali. Barbamz's link is superior to mine with its live updates.
Droughty southern half of Germany in blue this morning, means: lots of rain! At least one good news today. Even my place Mainz picked up 14mm (0,55 inches) so far but some regions more south already got the multiple of it :-).


Screenshot of current precipitation in central Europe with Germany.
One of the weather balloon launches yesterday at the Tampa Bay NWS picked up a PW reading of 2.24. This is the highest PW reading ever observed for this date, which goes back to 1948. The previous record was 2.02.

A PW reading of 2.24 in November is absolutely unheard of.
Quoting 110. MysteryMeat:



I wouldn't give up on Rick just yet. After all, he's never gonna give YOU up.
We all got rolled.
Aside from a tiny patch in central New York state, a smallish stretch of Southwest Florida is--literally--the only place in the entire United States east of the north-south I-35 corridor that has seen no measurable precipiation in the past week. (Click on the image below, click 'Last 7 Days', then zoom in to see it.)



Gee...I feel kinda special. :\
Quoting 129. tampabaymatt:

One of the weather balloon launches yesterday at the Tampa Bay NWS picked up a PW reading of 2.24. This is the highest PW reading ever observed for this date, which goes back to 1948. The previous record was 2.02.

A PW reading of 2.24 in November is absolutely unheard of.


0.1" of rain here near Orlando yesterday.
Quoting 114. Tazmanian:




YAWN your late i saw it 1st on TWC web site so old news now
Good job! This should be a lesson to all. You have to get up pretty early in the morning to beat the Tazmanian !!!
Quoting 137. HurrMichaelOrl:



0.1" of rain here near Orlando yesterday.


I had 0.12" yesterday in Tampa. I'm a little under an inch for November.
Solid rain event this weekend across the FL Penisula. It will be critical to see where this front hangs up across Central FL this weekend as right along that front as it comes back north and then stops as a ripple of low pressure moves by. Where that front stops is likely where the highest rainfall totals will occur.

Euro try's to sneak one in before the end of the season (yes I know mother nature knows no end to the season).








Link
Quoting 140. StormTrackerScott:

Solid rain event this weekend across the FL Penisula. It will be critical to see where this front hangs up across Central FL this weekend as right along that front as it comes back north and then stops as a ripple of low pressure moves by. Where that front stops is likely where the highest rainfall totals will occur.




When do you think the rains will start for C FL on Saturday? Local mets seem to think late in the afternoon.
As related to the current drought issues, here is the most recent monitor (as of yesterday):
Current U.S. Drought Monitor

As you can see, most of the US is in good shape currently with the exception of California and the NW coast; Cali really needs for the split-flow El Nino jet to fully establish for them over the Winter/Spring to bring them some relief.
Quoting 141. nrtiwlnvragn:

Euro try's to sneak one in before the end of the season (yes I know mother nature knows no end to the season).








Link
Interesting, when you run it out in time it takes it to just offshore the East Coast of FL. I wonder if it will be more subtropical.
The West Coast/Rookies needs plenty of snow over this Winter to help with the reservoirs/snow pack to get them into the Spring without significant water shortages; nothing significant on the horizon at the moment:




"There is no use taking the easy way out. It is always easier to hate and kill than to love and forgive, herein lies true strength. The strength to stop the world from turning in its vicious cycle." ~Some guy on the internet
Looks like the upper low at 32N 52W is working it's way down to the surface. if this trend continues we may have the last cyclone for the season.
Quoting 74. Jedkins01:

Man did we get major drought help, way more than I was expecting. Yesterday's forecast rainfall here in Tallahassee was around a half inch. That first squall line yesterday evening came through fast but still dumped 1.12 in about a half hour. After Midnight a 2nd line developed and remained stalled in the area for a few hours. We ended up picking up an additional 2.14 after mid night. Some areas south and southeast of here had 5-8 inches locally. In total, we had 1.12 for yesterday, 2.14 for today, and a 24 hour total of 3.26.

This is the 2nd 3 inch event in 24 hours this month, and today is the 2nd 2 inch day this month. We are now at 8.65 for the month of November. This is now the wettest month I've recorded in the rain gauge here since December 2014!

Now yes, I don't live here during the summer, but based on area wide data, summer rainfall was well below average area wide here, with the whole Tallahassee area getting no more than 2-4 inches each month at best from May into August.
Keep in mind we had a severe drought going into November around here, I had less than 3.5 inches combined since moving back from August 22nd to October 31st. Who would have thought November would end up being so active? I'm thankful though, we needed it!

It's more amazing that summer was so dry. It's usually sodden after 6/15 to 9/1 or so in TLH. Even the horrible SE drought year of 1986 was wet in TLH after early June because of sea breeze stuff. The green/brown line that summer was near the GA border.
150. jpsb
Kanas Nov 18, 2015



https://twitter.com/Basehunters/status/6670181974 85248512/photo/1
Quoting 55. washingtonian115:

I'm not getting exciting about anything yet.But it would be interesting to see snow around Thanksgiving like we have had for the last two years.


In the first decade of the 2000s December 5 seemed to be the magic date.
Snowstorm taking shape over the Midwest heading to the Great Lakes region.

Okay. Most climate change deniers have an agenda. But there are a few reputable ones.
An otherwise well read personal friend has pointed out that Dr Richard Lindzen, no kook at all, is among
the AGW skeptics. I'm at work in my day job or I'd do it. could someone else point out a source where his arguments have
been rebutted.. thanks.
Quoting 156. georgevandenberghe:

Okay. Most climate change deniers have an agenda. But there are a few reputable ones.
An otherwise well read personal friend has pointed out that Dr Richard Lindzen, no kook at all, is among
the AGW skeptics. I'm at work in my day job or I'd do it. could someone else point out a source where his arguments have
been rebutted.. thanks.



From Wikipedia:

In a 2001 profile in Newsweek, journalist Fred Guterl wrote that Lindzen "clearly relishes the role of naysayer. He'll even expound on how weakly lung cancer is linked to cigarette smoking."[14] James Hansen recalls meeting Lindzen whilst testifying before the Vice President's Climate Task Force: "I considered asking Lindzen if he still believed there was no connection between smoking and lung cancer. He had been a witness for tobacco companies decades earlier, questioning the reliability of statistical connections between smoking and health problems. But I decided that would be too confrontational. When I met him at a later conference, I did ask that question, and was surprised by his response: He began rattling off all the problems with the date relating smoking to helath problems, which was closely analagous to his views of climate data
Quoting 156. georgevandenberghe:

Okay. Most climate change deniers have an agenda. But there are a few reputable ones.
An otherwise well read personal friend has pointed out that Dr Richard Lindzen, no kook at all, is among
the AGW skeptics. I'm at work in my day job or I'd do it. could someone else point out a source where his arguments have
been rebutted.. thanks.

First, it's said that a man is known by the company he keeps. If that's the case, Lindzen already looks bad, frequently appearing in print and an stage alongside such thoroughly discredited contrarians as Bolt, Watts, Delingpole, Nova, McKitrick, and Soon. For most scientists, a person willing to roll around in that particular bowl of slop is already deservibng of dismissal. But Lindzen is probably the most well-educated denialist working today, which is--of course--the reason his name is always trotted out whenever a dose of credibility is needed. Which is often. But Lindzen has aligned publicly and not-so-publicly aligned himself with fossil fuel interests (ExxonMobil, etc.) and groups (CEI, Heartland Institute) for years, making many tends of thousands of dollars from them as an 'expert witness'.

Now, none of that stuff can be considered a scientific refutation of any of his peer-reviewed papers. But here's a nice compendium of some of Lindzen's denialist statements, alongside a list of direct refutations of those statements: https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Richard_ Lindzen.htm

There may be some "reputable" climate change deniers, but Lindzen is most definitely not one of them.
Quoting 154. StormTrackerScott:



Well force needs to be used eliminate the problem @ the source or this problem will just get worse. Just saying. Good thing is Obama's days are numbered in office. Trump is looking better and better.


Only to a blind person.
CMC is so much fun!
167. jpsb
Quoting 156. georgevandenberghe:

Okay. Most climate change deniers have an agenda. But there are a few reputable ones.
An otherwise well read personal friend has pointed out that Dr Richard Lindzen, no kook at all, is among
the AGW skeptics. I'm at work in my day job or I'd do it. could someone else point out a source where his arguments have
been rebutted.. thanks.



From Wiki

Lindzen was born on February 8, 1940 in Webster, Massachusetts.[1] His father, a shoemaker, had fled Hitler's Germany with his mother. He moved to the Bronx soon after his birth and grew up in a Jewish household in a predominantly Catholic neighborhood there.[3] Lindzen attended the Bronx High School of Science (winning Regents' and National Merit Scholarships), Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute,and Harvard University.[5] From Harvard, he received an A.B. in physics in 1960, followed by an S.M. in applied mathematics in 1961 and a Ph.D. in applied mathematics in 1964. His doctoral thesis, Radiative and photochemical processes in strato- and mesospheric dynamics,[6] concerned the interactions of ozone photochemistry, radiative transfer, and dynamics in the middle atmosphere.
NWS New Orleans disco'

Short term... 

Quiet weather expected today with most areas expected to reach the
low to middle 70s for highs. Low pressure will develop in Colorado
today and move quickly into the Great Lakes area by Saturday
evening. Onshore flow will add a little moisture to the area just
ahead of the front. The biggest difference between the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF on Saturday is the amount of moisture below 750
mb. The NAM pretty much saturates the lowest layers...while the
GFS is much drier and would mean very little in the way of
precipitation. The European model (ecmwf) is quite a bit drier than its earlier
runs...but not to the Point of the GFS. Likely solution is
somewhere in the middle...probably close to...or a shade
drier...than what we are seeing on this run of the European model (ecmwf). Will
carry chance probability of precipitation mainly for the daytime hours Saturday. Middle level
lapse rates on all the models are sufficient for at least a
mention of a rumble of thunder or two. Rain and clouds should
depart quickly Saturday night with increasing subsidence aloft.

Temperatures will be above normal ahead of the front today and
tonight. Timing of the frontal passage will have a decided effect
on Saturday high temperatures. Areas ahead of the front should
warm into the lower 70s...but temperatures behind the front likely
to drop in the wake of the frontal passage. Will trend Saturday
temperatures toward the upper half of the guidance envelope...more
toward GFS/European model (ecmwf) than the NAM numbers. Saturday night and
Sunday...trending closer to the GFS/mav numbers...with northern
portions of the area struggling to get past 50 degrees for highs
on Sunday. Will be rather breezy Saturday night as well...making
it feel even chillier. 35

Long term...

A brief shot of colder and dry air will overspread the area Sunday
into Tuesday. Clear skies...calm winds and dew points in the middle
20s should allow temperatures to plummet Sunday night. Operational
guidance and most members of both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS ensembles
indicate a significant threat of freezing temperatures Monday
morning from Lake Pontchartrain northward. This would be the first
freeze of the year in our area if it verifies. We have been
advertising this threat in the hazardous weather outlook for a
couple days. High pressure shifts off to the east Monday night
into Tuesday with moderating temperatures. Monday night will be a
few degrees warmer than Sunday night...but many areas likely to
still be in the 30s.

Beyond Monday night...high pressure at the surface is expected to
remain anchored along the East Coast with southwesterly upper flow
across our area and ridging over the southern Gulf. No major
impulses expected to affect the area through Thanksgiving
day. Likely to be a fair amount of cloud cover for mid-week...but
any precipitation likely to be light and isolated. Better
precipitation chances likely to be well north of the area...closer
to northern stream shortwaves. Looks like a mild Thanksgiving
Holiday and start to the Holiday shopping season is in store. 35
Merrill Lynch on economic impact of El Niño: Q1 "Risk" to Upside


Excerpt:

[W]e think that if the winter ends up being warm, the risk is that the economic data look quite strong. This might just prompt the Fed to justify a second hike earlier than markets are expecting.
Quoting 163. StormTrackerScott:



Its not about ego its about our safety and with us being under this president I can't say that we are safe anymore. What happened in Paris could easily happen here.


Terrorism can happen anywhere. Unless you live in a anarchic/lawless society it's guaranteed to be a risk.

A lot of us thought the same of "We are safe" to a high degree of confidence before Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and significant terror attacks on American soil.

What is the real problem Scott? What is the root cause of these kinds of attacks?

Terrorism by definition has to include some political element. If you call ISIS a state, then it is appropriately a "War". If you call ISIS a tribe, and you attack (if they're on your territory) then it's genocide. ISIS at this point is a "tribe" and are not recognized as a State. Western Civ needs to go to the UN and take up the issue with Syria/Iraq and their allies. Need to re-enforce those governments in order to dissolve ISIS. It's not an easy task like "vote in a Republican" for president.
Quoting 150. jpsb:

Kanas Nov 18, 2015



https://twitter.com/Basehunters/status/6670181974 85248512/photo/1

Yeah and?
Seems I best brush up on my Fla social skills a tad,eh?

Just for those who appear to have forgotten, this is a tropical weather blog. We are supposed to discuss tropical weather and/or whatever the current blog from the Doc is about. If you had been discussing our politician's views on climate change, funding for the NHC or other weather-related issues, your comments would be fine, but you aren't. Please can we stick to what we are here for?
Quoting 177. OviedoWatcher:

Just for those who appear to have forgotten, this is a tropical weather blog. We are supposed to discuss tropical weather and/or whatever the current blog from the Doc is about. If you had been discussing our politician's views on climate change, funding for the NHC or other weather-related issues, your comments would be fine, but you aren't. Please can we stick to what we are here for?


I concur.

But - for the sake of argument - consider that some global instability caused by climate change is affecting our political/economic/social futures? Can we indirectly tie the rise of ISIS with the impacts of climate change. It's a stretch, but yes, indirectly there's sufficient evidence in my view that debating the merits of policy by presidents on appropriate responses to terrorism be tied in with a climate change blog - if it's that. Topic is not but - yeah. Wanted to make that point.
Quoting 158. Neapolitan:

First, it's said that a man is known by the company he keeps. If that's the case, Lindzen already looks bad, frequently appearing in print and an stage alongside such thoroughly discredited contrarians as Bolt, Watts, Delingpole, Nova, McKitrick, and Soon. For most scientists, a person willing to roll around in that particular bowl of slop is already deservibng of dismissal. But Lindzen is probably the most well-educated denialist working today, which is--of course--the reason his name is always trotted out whenever a dose of credibility is needed. Which is often. But Lindzen has aligned publicly and not-so-publicly aligned himself with fossil fuel interests (ExxonMobil, etc.) and groups (CEI, Heartland Institute) for years, making many tends of thousands of dollars from them as an 'expert witness'.

Now, none of that stuff can be considered a scientific refutation of any of his peer-reviewed papers. But here's a nice compendium of some of Lindzen's denialist statements, alongside a list of direct refutations of those statements: https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Richard_ Lindzen.htm

There may be some "reputable" climate change deniers, but Lindzen is most definitely not one of them.


Thanks, this will be helpful.
In-Fa Rainbow Loop

for the discerning bloggers among us.


When one dismisses the past and truth for political comfort, they fall from grace and reality.

Be it climate change, or other.

Semper Fi'
"And actually, we’ve had times where the weather wasn’t working out, so they changed it to extreme weather, and they have all different names, you know, so that it fits the bill. But the problem we have, and if you look at our energy costs, and all of the things that we’re doing to solve a problem that I don’t think in any major fashion exists. I mean, Obama thinks it’s the number one problem of the world today. And I think it’s very low on the list. So I am not a believer, and I will, unless somebody can prove something to me, I believe there’s weather. I believe there’s change, and I believe it goes up and it goes down, and it goes up again. And it changes depending on years and centuries, but I am not a believer"~ The decidedly unserious Donald Trump discussing AGW.
I'm frightened by the number of people who take this guy seriously. Not only is he a full on denier of AGW/ climate change, but now he's floating some ideas that would have been right at home in Nazi Germany.
These are scary times in more ways than one.
Good Morning Class!
Well, here comes Friday.

LoL
Quoting 184. Patrap:

When one dismisses the past and truth for political comfort, they fall from grace and reality.

Be it climate change, or other.

Semper Fi'


My brother was a marine and he would 100% agree on this. Dude was in Iraq for the invasion. Knowing ISIS is "effective" - it's really screwing him up. Not only that but we were looking forward to the Paris Climate talks. It's a lot less hopeful for us at this point.

We need meaningful changes to survive both ISIS and climate change. War is not the answer. It's convenient and political points are abundant - but we would lose a lot. Not just lives. A lot.
Tell your Brother thank you for His service to Corps and Country...from us here in New Orleans.
Quoting 177. OviedoWatcher:

Just for those who appear to have forgotten, this is a tropical weather blog. We are supposed to discuss tropical weather and/or whatever the current blog from the Doc is about. If you had been discussing our politician's views on climate change, funding for the NHC or other weather-related issues, your comments would be fine, but you aren't. Please can we stick to what we are here for?
agreed and that's a pretty good snowstorm up in the northern states..nws is saying 10 inches or more expected.
Quoting 192. Patrap:

Tell your Brother thank you for His service to Corps and Country...from us here in New Orleans.



Thanks Patrap - btw he LOVES NOLA and I can't wait to visit one day. Almost moved there to attend Tulane but didn't and that first year was when Katrina hit. Would've had to relocate. Knew a few "refugees" from Tulane.

Semper Fi friend.
GFS has this gulf Low system crossing Florida sunday into the atlantic.................
Yes, lets move on to the daily Noon episode of destroying Fla. et al with GFS model frames.

Quoting 151. georgevandenberghe:



In the first decade of the 2000s December 5 seemed to be the magic date.

2002, 2003(well the night before), 2007, 2009. Exciting childhood.
The only thing about the Middle East I will post today on this Blog:

forecast image


"gee"
It's going to be Pat Paulsen for President in 2016. Here he addresses the current issues as if this was 30 years ago or so. This is my final word on this years political commentaries and I hope the same for all....
Link
Quoting 181. Patrap:

In-Fa Rainbow Loop

for the discerning bloggers among us.



In-Fa's CDO (central dense overcast) is starting to look more round.
In-Fa

Quoting 203. MrNatural:

It's going to be Pat Paulsen for President in 2016. Here he addresses the current issues as if this was 30 years ago or so. This is my final word on this years political commentaries and I hope the same for all....
Link


I am articulate and persuasive. I would run but I'm too busy raising my own family and doing my day job.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The big picture for the current storm in the west-pac: thankfully a fish storm for them per the current model guidance




A note from the 1817 British Admiralty

"

“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated…."

This was written Nov 20, 1817. I believe it is accurate and reports a real condition not often reported from this extremely cold and variable period (e.g year without a summer in 1816 Europe and Eastern North America) following the 1815 Tambora eruption.

Interesting. Agreed not tropical.

210. jpsb
Just
Quoting 163. StormTrackerScott:

Just dropping bye to say I kind of agree with you Scott and I am a USMC vet too, class of 1969, Parris Island alumni.
Since when did the USMC have "Classes" ?

..LOL


We graduate "Platoon's" sport.

Semper Fi'
Quoting 156. georgevandenberghe:

Okay. Most climate change deniers have an agenda. But there are a few reputable ones.
An otherwise well read personal friend has pointed out that Dr Richard Lindzen, no kook at all, is among
the AGW skeptics. I'm at work in my day job or I'd do it. could someone else point out a source where his arguments have
been rebutted.. thanks.


You can start here.
Quoting 164. tampabaymatt:



Obama’s stance on the Syrian refugee situation is unthinkable. I’m not going to get into a political debate on this blog, but Obama’s presidency has been a disaster. Our country is not safe and we’re drowning in a bazillion dollars in debt which is growing by the minute. The effects of Obama’s administration won’t be truly felt for years to come.

I try to avoid politics except as they pertain to climate change on this blog but I had to respond. By trying to deny access for Syrian refugees to the US you play right into the hands of the terrorists allowing them to dictate how we feel about freedom and forcing some of the refugees back into their hands.

And regarding the national debt, going back to at least the Nixon administration the 2nd derivative of the debt, that is rate of change of the change in debt is negative during Democratic administrations and positive during Republican administrations. Link