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October 2015: Earth's Warmest Month on Record by a Huge Margin

By: Jeff Masters 4:54 PM GMT on November 18, 2015

Earth’s surface temperature has surged high into uncharted territory, thanks to a record-strength El Niño event combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming: October 2015 was Earth’s warmest month on record by a huge margin, according to data released by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. October 2015 was the second consecutive month with a new all-time warmest month record: September 2015 previously held the record for the largest positive departure of temperature from average of any month among all 1630 months in the historical record that began in January 1880. As shown in the table below, October 2015's 0.98°C (1.76°F) departure from the 20th Century average beat the next ten runners-up by an unusually large margin, underscoring how unusual and extreme the current surge in global temperatures is. NASA also rated October 2015 as the warmest month in the historical record by a large margin, again defined as the largest positive departure from average (note that in an absolute sense, Earth's warmest month is July, but NOAA and NASA do not keep track of global temperature records in an absolute sense.) October 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - October) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. October 2015 was the sixth consecutive month a monthly high temperature record has been set in NOAA's database, and the eighth month of the ten months so far in 2015. The potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continued to intensify into mid-November. Strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it virtually certain that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record. The lingering warmth from El Niño is likely to make 2016 a good bet to exceed even 2015's warmth.

NOAA's top ten warmest global monthly departures from the 20th Century average:
1) 0.98°C, Oct 2015
2) 0.91°C, Sep 2015
3) 0.89°C, Mar 2015
4) 0.88°C, Feb 2015
4) 0.88°C, Jan 2007
6) 0.87°C, Aug 2015
6) 0.87°C, Jun 2015
8) 0.86°C, Feb 1998
9) 0.85°C, May 2015
10) 0.85°C, Mar 2010


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2015, the warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across the entire southern half of Australia, part of southern and southeastern Asia, much of central and southern Africa, most of Central America and northern South America, and parts of western North America. Record warmth was also over much of the world's oceans. This includes the Pacific waters near the Mexican coast, where Hurricane Patricia exploded into the most intense Western Hemisphere hurricane on record on October 23, with 200 mph winds. Record warm waters were also observed over the portion of the Arabian Sea where Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Chapala and Category 3 Megh tracked in October--the first time two major tropical cyclones had ever been observed in the Arabian Sea in the same year. Record warm waters were also observed around Hawaii, where the warm waters caused the worst coral bleaching episode in Hawaii's history, which will likely result in a large-scale die-off of coral. A loss of 10 - 20% of all coral worldwide is expected due to the global bleaching event currently underway, due to the extensive record-warm ocean temperatures worldwide. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .


Figure 2. Departure of the global surface temperature from average for the year-to-date period January - October, for all years from 1880 to 2015. This year is on pace to easily beat last year as the warmest year on record. Image credit: NOAA.

Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest October readings in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and were the 2nd warmest on record, according to RSS. The lowest 8 km of the atmosphere heats up dramatically in response to moderate to strong El Niño events, with a time lag of about six months.



Three billion-dollar weather disasters in October 2015
Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, according to the October 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: flooding in South Carolina of at least $2 billion, $4.2 billion in damage from China's Typhoon Mujigae, and $1 billion in damage from flash flooding in France. With 21 billion-dollar weather disasters through October 2015, Earth is on pace for a below-average number of these disasters, compared to the average of 28 recorded during the previous 10-year period, 2005 - 2014.


Disaster 1. Typhoon Mujigae hit the Philippines as a tropical storm on October 2 before rapidly intensifying and striking China on October 4 as a Category 3 storm. Mujigae killed two in the Philippines and at least 20 in China. Economic losses in Philippines were estimated at $1.3 million, and were $4.2 billion in China, making Mujigae the costliest tropical cyclone of 2015. In this image, we see a rapidly intensifying Typhoon Mujigae approaching China at 03:05 UTC October 3, 2015. Image credit: NASA.


Disaster 2. Torrential 1-in-1000 year rains of over two feet, associated with a plume of moisture wrapping around Hurricane Joaquin, brought tremendous flooding across much of South Carolina during the first week of October. At least 21 people were killed, and damage was conservatively estimated at $2.0 billion, including $300 million in damage to crops. In this photo, we see a church surrounded by flood waters on October 5, 2015 in Columbia, South Carolina. Image credit: Sean Rayford/Getty Images.


Disaster 3. At least 19 people were killed along the southeast coast of France by a flash flood on October 3 - 4. Cannes received a record 107 mm (4.21”) in just one hour; the previous one-hour record was 70 mm (2.76”). In this photo, we see a man walking past damaged cars in Mandelieu-la-Napoule, southern France, on October 5, 2015. Cars are often stacked in this manner in the aftermath of flash floods, as was the case during the catastrophic Rapid City, SD, flood of 1972 (scroll page for photo). Image credit: Anne-Christine Poujoulat/AFP/Getty Images.

Arctic sea ice comes in at 6th lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October 2015 was the 6th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Notable global heat and cold marks set for October 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 46.0°C (114.8°F) at Bassora Airport, Iran, October 3.
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -60°C (-76.0°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, October 24. This is a new record of minimum temperature in the Northern Hemisphere for the month of October.
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 48.4°C (119.1°F) at Vredendal, South Africa, October 27. This is a new world record of maximum temperature for the month of October.
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -72.3°C (-98.1°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, October 22.

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records (for any month) in October 2015
Nevis Airport (Saint Kitts and Nevis) max. 34.1°C, 2 October
Canefield Airport (Dominica) max. 35.5°C,  3 and 4 October:  new national record high for Dominica
Gustavia (Saint Barthelemy, France) max. 35.5°C,  5 October: new territorial record high for Saint Barthelemy
Sal (Cape Verde) max. 36°C, 5 October
Peixe (Brazil) max. 41.4°C,  5 October
Picos (Brazil) max. 41.5°C, 5 October; broken again with 41.9°C on 21 October
Januaria (Brazil) max. 41.3°C,  5 October
Monte Azul (Brazil) max. 40.7°C,  5 October
Posse (Brazil) max. 39.1°C,  5 October
Aragarcas (Brazil) max. 42.6°C, 6 October
Xavantina (Brazil) max. 42.3°C, 6 October
Golden Rock Airport (Saint Kitts and Nevis) max. 34.1°C, 6 October
The Valley (Anguilla,United Kingdom) max. 34.2°C, 10 October:  new territorial record high for Anguilla;  this was broken on 11 October with a reading of 34.4°C (but this reading is suspect)
Pedro Afonso (Brazil) max. 40.9°C, 17 October
Palu (Indonesia) max. 38.5°C,  20 October
Pirapora (Brazil) max. 40.8°C, 21 October
Montes Claros (Brazil) max. 39.6°C, 21 October
Maripasoula (French Guiana, France) max. 37.5°C, 21 October
Saint Laurent du Moroni (French Guiana, France) max. 37.8°C, 22 October: new territorial record high for French Guiana
Saint Georges de L'Oyapock (French Guiana, France) max. 37.0°C, 22 October
Paracatu (Brazil) max. 40.2°C, 22 October
Arinos (Brazil) max. 42.3°C, 22 October
Peixe (Brazil) max. 41.5°C,  22 October
Monte Azul (Brazil) max. 41.1°C, 22 October
Taua (Brazil) max. 38.8°C,   22 October
Posse (Brazil) max. 39.2°C,  22 October
Semarang Airport (Indonesia) max. 39.5°C, 28 October: Tied national record high for Indonesia
Vredendal (South Africa) max. 48.4°C, 27 October



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of November 15, 2015, sixteen nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2015, and two (Israel and Cyprus) set all-time cold temperature records. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page.

Kudos also to Mr. Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for October 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in October 2015" sections of the post.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thank you for the new Blog,we here in Florida have surely felt our temp records being broken,almost on a daily basis
Quoting 107. JohnLonergan:

The effect of El Nino on the temperature trend, 2015 YTD shown as a red asterisk.


Thanks for the update Dr. Masters - It's all moving from the lower left to the upper right...Patrap's graphs tell the compelling story.
Thank You Dr. Pretty clear from the chart as to where the warmest global ocean SST's coincide with the location of many tropical reefs which are subject to the coral bleaching events. We don't "quantify" this issue in terms of dollars/numbers (weather disaster in a given year), but when you consider the potential loss of tourist dollars lost over time (for local economies from tourist divers), loss of reef habitat (fishing grounds), and loss of species, the actual long term costs of coral bleaching are incalculable.
Still heating up, Huh ?

I think it's time for a change of tactic.
If we all, loudly and vehemently, deny that it's getting hotter, maybe it will start cooling...

The power of a million brains, and all that.
No ?
Why not.
Nothing else is working......
Only 10 days out rather then 16 days, anyone believe this has a chance?

From the Sydney Morning Herald , a rather mind blowing factoid -

Heat records smashed again as big El Nino rides on global warming

100 quadrillion kilojoules


Driving global temperatures higher this year is the big El Nino event in the Pacific. During such years, wind patterns shift, allowing unusual heat to beat up in the central and eastern equatorial areas.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said a six million-square kilometre region on the Pacific, dubbed Nino3.4, had warmed by more than 2 degrees. (See chart below.)

The heat required to warm just the top two metres of that region by that amount would require 100 quadrillion kilojoules, NOAA’s Emily Becker said in a website post. That’s 100 followed by 15 zeros. That tally is about equal to the total energy consumed each year in the US, she said.


Link
Pretty strange storms over here in South Alabama and the Panhandle. The only severe storms are coming in off the Gulf, caused by the tail of the cold front as it moves ENE. A particularly strong cell is ashore in Destin FL, prompting a tornado warning for a radar indicated tornado. There has been at least one report of a citizen seeing the tornado on the ground just north of Destin, but I haven't seen any other confirmation yet. None of the storms from the front pushing east in Alabama have been severe, and most are just the usual storms we get in November, Believe it or not, the line is still nowhere near me. I have a doctor's appointment in Dothan at 1:00, a 50 mile drive south. There's a 100% chance of torrential rain then. :-)
Quoting 5. pottery:

Still heating up, Huh ?

I think it's time for a change of tactic.
If we all, loudly and vehemently, deny that it's getting hotter, maybe it will start cooling...

The power of a million brains, and all that.
No ?
Why not.
Nothing else is working......



Er, not to bust yer bubble, but it was Human Thought that got us into this Global Catastrophe, so I highly doubt Human Thought will do anything to stop it.

Greed rules the roost in this case, globally.


And the barrage of CO2 spewing into the biosphere goes on, 24/7/365.

The Warming continues, UN abated



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 552...

VALID 181651Z - 181845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 552 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND
A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM MIDDLE
TN SWD ACROSS WRN AL. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
ALONG THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY LOCATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS SHOW STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE
A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR. ALSO...50 TO 60 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO WRN GA AND
THE ERN FL PANHANDLE WHERE A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/18/2015
Quoting 9. Patrap:




Er, not to bust yer bubble, but it was Human Thought that got us into this Global Catastrophe, so I highly doubt Human Thought will do anything to stop it.

Greed rules the roost in this case, globally.


And the barrage of CO2 spewing into the biosphere goes on, 24/7/365.

The Warming continues, UN abated




Shucks !
I thought I was on to something there.... I'll keep thinking. Although it hurts sometimes......

:):))
Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

ALC083-089-181930-
/O.CON.KHUN.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151118T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MADISON AL-LIMESTONE AL-
1043 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CST FOR
MADISON AND EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 1039 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER LIMESTONE
AND MADISON COUNTIES. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
FALLEN WITH SWOLLEN CREEKS. ADDITIONALLY...FLASH FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ALONG INDIAN CREEK GREENWAY WITH THE CURRENT STAGE OF
INDIAN CREEK AT 8 FEET WHICH IS ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...MADISON...ATHENS...MOORES MILL...REDSTONE ARSENAL...
MERIDIANVILLE...HAZEL GREEN...OWENS CROSS ROADS...ARDMORE AND GURLEY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&


Southeast sector loop

Current reports of wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range in the blue spots across Alabama over the past 3 hours:
today Reports Graphic
.
From the turn around don't drown file :

Flash floods turn deadly in Jeddah

A 48 sec. U-tube clip
Monster deep low combined with the jet stream pattern over eastern half of Conus:



Thanks dok!
As the low starts to move more to the N-NE (as opposed to more eastward), looks likes parts of Eastern Conus will be subject to a training band effect with some flooding issues; current flash flood warning on the AL/TN border area.
31 years now of straight global warm biased monthly temps.

I was 24 the last time we had a cool bias Global monthly avg.


And I was much better looking then too.

: P

Looks to be a wet weekend on hand for south Florida, followed by some seasonal temperatures...

LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...

THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND WET. FRONT IS
STATIONARY NEARBY, AND A ZONAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABLE
TO TRANSPORT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO FL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF
HAS SOME COPIOUS RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, BUT
GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY CONSIDERING THIS
PATTERN. MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. IN FACT, THE ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT AND IS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS
SHOVED THROUGH SOUTH FL INTO MONDAY. 100KT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF WILL PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT BUMP. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/GEFS 0Z
SUITE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE
CHANGE TO SAY THE LEAST AFTER A SIZZLING EARLY FALL.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 1141 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
what's funny is that there are still going to be some people pushing the 'no warming since 1998!' shtick. wait, not 'funny', what's the word? oh yeah, tedious.

actually, I'm kidding. in reality I expect a great shift in january 2016 to the argument 'no warming since 2015!'

Quoting 5. pottery:

Still heating up, Huh ?

I think it's time for a change of tactic.
If we all, loudly and vehemently, deny that it's getting hotter, maybe it will start cooling...

The power of a million brains, and all that.
No ?
Why not.
Nothing else is working......
The most recent tornado warning is in SE Alabama; they seem to be starting to pop up near the dry line out ahead of the main rain/frontal area at the moment:





Quoting 1. LargoFl:

thank you for the new Blog,we here in Florida have surely felt our temp records being broken,almost on a daily basis


Begging for rain and cooler temperatures here. I'm starting to feel like we live on a dry Caribbean island. I wonder how long it would take for our native temperate vegetation to die if our climate were to suddenly become a seasonally dry tropical climate?
Quoting 6. SouthCentralTx:

Only 10 days out rather then 16 days, anyone believe this has a chance?




Looks like the switch to negative NAO will be transient. Early December is when things could get interesting according to the long range models show cold air infiltrating down from Canada.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 1149 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
El Nino Sneaux Fever'
Quoting 6. SouthCentralTx:

Only 10 days out rather then 16 days, anyone believe this has a chance?




Yes. THis anomaly pattern is climatologically realistic, has precedents, and will recur again in the future.

Or in simple language.. Yes this is believable. Simple language, where possible is better for exposition BTW.
TWC will be able to show some live footage from the parking lot when the front gets to Atlanta later this afternoon....The trajectory of the low has flattened out to the North over the past few hours so there will be lots of training rain from Georgia/Alabama to the North this afternoon and evening upward through TN/KY and parts upwards.


October 2015 is the record hottest October in the northern hemisphere and the record hottest October in the southern hemisphere, according to NASA and according to NOAA. A further analysis of data from NASA shows that November 2014 to October 2015 is the record hottest 12-calendar-month period globally, according to that data.
Will The El Nino Increase the tornado risk over the winter?

Also, I've heard rumors that it will be colder in the south. Are these true and if not, why?
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

Monster deep low combined with the jet stream pattern over eastern half of Conus:





little windy wet too
yet to arrive the rain
cold shot for the weekend here
with chills of - 10c and squalls of snow showers
begining late Friday night till early monday
nice update good lunch time read
Quoting 28. Patrap:

El Nino Sneaux Fever'
gonna be a rollercoaster of a ride winter and spring too
from one extreme point too another

got a feeling gonna be lots of ice too

We need comprehensive legislation to aggressively transform our energy system away from fossil fuel to clean energy. We can create a new sustainable energy economy to protect vulnerable communities while transitioning workers into renewable energy jobs. The United States must lead the world in confronting this planetary crisis.

Bernie Sanders
2016 will be the year that sets the alarm bells ringing. The second year of the three strongest El Ninos on record (72-73, 82-83 and 97-98) was much warmer than the first year, so it is to be expected that 2016 will beat the 2015 record by a wide margin.

Here are the global temperature anomalies for the six years of the three strongest El Ninos:

72 +0.01C
73 +0.15C

82 +0.13C
83 +0.31C

97 +0.48C
98 +0.63C

The second year averaged a whopping 0.16C warmer than the first year.
Quoting 6. SouthCentralTx:

Only 10 days out rather then 16 days, anyone believe this has a chance?




Sure. There is a chance that the morning low temp in central Texas is 12-15°F below the average morning temp (low 40's) for that date. This chart is predicting an anomaly of about 8°C across central TX.

Find your sweater and your down vest!




Quoting 36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

from one extreme point too another

got a feeling gonna be lots of ice too


In the first line, it is "to".

The second is correct though.

Now, did you finish the Homework on El Nino?
Quoting 40. Patrap:



In the first line, it is "to".

The second is correct though.

Now, did you finish the Homework on El Nino?
no this is a whole new different kinda homework never seen before stuff
Quoting 25. HurrMichaelOrl:



Begging for rain and cooler temperatures here. I'm starting to feel like we live on a dry Caribbean island. I wonder how long it would take for our native temperate vegetation to die if our climate were to suddenly become a seasonally dry tropical climate?


Probably not very long in terms of grass plants and shrubs, the soil in most of Florida is poor in moisture holding qualities and poor in nutrients. Though trees would take a very long time to die simply because the water table is very high from a combination of being a wet climate and a lack of elevation change.

The reason for this is that geologists now agree that Florida started to emerge first as tropical desert islands with the rest of the landmass eventually emerging and was originally a drier subtropical desert climate like much of the southwest U.S. The sandy soil that is poor in holding water that sometimes appears like beach sand even well inland is no coincidence. These beach sand areas are just that, remnants of Florida's beachy soil past, giving reflection of how new of a land mass it is, and how much it's climate has changed. It's well accepted that the climate changed due to warming oceans, which led to the developing of the rain season. It's also believed that frontal storm tracks favor the southeast vs the southwest today more than they did several thousand years ago based on changing climate.

The reason why continental areas have such rich soil compared to Florida is that their history of the cycle of life, compost made from many generations of decomposed life is much longer than in Florida. However, there are local areas of Florida where the soil is much richer like continental areas further north because such regions are much older.

They call these areas hammocks because they are dense areas of forest that have a massive diversity of unique biomass that thrives in the older, richer soil. It's believed many of the hammocks are part of the island areas of Florida that emerged much before the rest of the land mass. I visited one with my family earlier this year called Highlands Hammock State Park in Highlands county. It's truly an incredible place. We went there in May, which is usually the driest time of the year in Florida, and the amount of green and water there was incredible despite it being the dry season. It honestly is like a little piece of the Amazon right at home in Florida. If you love the feeling of massive ancient trees and an incredible amount of biodiversity and unique life, I would definitely suggest going there.

Link

Sadly, apparently earlier in Florida's history, the hammocks were more common, but many of them were cut down due to their rich diversity in hard wood trees. Thankfully now the state parks system is doing it's best to protect and preserve them.
Quoting 37. Patrap:


We need comprehensive legislation to aggressively transform our energy system away from fossil fuel to clean energy. We can create a new sustainable energy economy to protect vulnerable communities while transitioning workers into renewable energy jobs. The United States must lead the world in confronting this planetary crisis.

Bernie Sanders
Can he win the nomination?
looks like a windy night ahead on the SC coast...i think its wonderfully convenient that the last near two years has had the eastern seaboard and NE population corridors at or below normal temps, keeping us intelligent metrosexuals in the dark while the cook is on all the planet all around us..little island of truth!!!
Quoting 43. Kenfa03:

Can he win the nomination?


There is virtually no chance of this. Perception is reality in politics, and the media has already handed Hillary Clinton the nomination. While he is leading Clinton in the primary polls in some key states, I don’t believe he has any shot at the nomination. While I disagree with a lot of his proposed policies, he really is the loudest proponent of any of the candidates for doing something about climate change. It’s amazing to me that in all of these debates, climate change is hardly discussed.
compare same date 2014 2015 nov 18 temps 2m level



Quoting 49. tampabaymatt:



There is virtually no chance of this. Perception is reality in politics, and the media has already handed Hillary Clinton the nomination. While he is leading Clinton in the primary polls in some key states, I don%u2019t believe he has any shot at the nomination. While I disagree with a lot of his proposed policies, he really is the loudest proponent of any of the candidates for doing something about climate change. It%u2019s amazing to me that in all of these debates, climate change is hardly discussed.


I disagree that Clinton is a shoe-in. Make a ticket for Sanders as President (mostly for climate change initiatives) with Hillary as VP (Foreign relations expertise] and you have a winning ticket to "win" come fall. Source: Poli-Sci major who projected Obama as President in 2005.

the Paris attacks changed the calculus dramatically for voters perceptions (in terms of the urgency for climate change policy action). It's terrible and "inconvenient" for those tracking the climate debate.
Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare same date 2014 2015 nov 18 temps 2m level






Had to protect the Citrus pots here in MD mid Nov 2014. Not so far in 2015. First action to do this is usually early December here. Did not do it at all winter 1997-98 until March when a late Arctic outbreak finally required it.
A one day cold spell though froze my lemon fruits New Years Eve. Trees were fine. I had week old twins and was not paying close attention.
Quoting 51. CraigsIsland:



I disagree. Make a ticket for Sanders as President (mostly for climate change initiatives) with Hillary as VP (Foreign relations expertise] and you have a winning ticket to "win" come fall.

the Paris attacks changed the calculus dramatically for voters perceptions. It's terrible.


Let's just hope that it doesn't cause more people to vote for Trump
My hunch is that this is where CC really begins to take off. I think the trend will increase after the La Niña that will follow our current El Niño. I think extreme weather will increase, too.

I also expect Earth another new record low for Arctic extent and volume sea ice in 2017, possibly even "ice free" for a day or two.

I just have a feeling that this is where CC really starts to be a problem.
Quoting 54. Misanthroptimist:

.
faster and faster
Quoting 42. Jedkins01:



Probably not very long in terms of grass plants and shrubs, the soil in most of Florida is poor in moisture holding qualities and poor in nutrients. Though trees would take a very long time to die simply because the water table is very high from a combination of being a wet climate and a lack of elevation change.

The reason for this is that geologists now agree that Florida started to emerge first as tropical desert islands with the rest of the landmass eventually emerging and was originally a drier subtropical desert climate like much of the southwest U.S. The sandy soil that is poor in holding water that sometimes appears like beach sand even well inland is no coincidence. These beach sand areas are just that, remnants of Florida's beachy soil past, giving reflection of how new of a land mass it is, and how much it's climate has changed. It's well accepted that the climate changed due to warming oceans, which led to the developing of the rain season. It's also believed that frontal storm tracks favor the southeast vs the southwest today more than they did several thousand years ago based on changing climate.

The reason why continental areas have such rich soil compared to Florida is that their history of the cycle of life, compost made from many generations of decomposed life is much longer than in Florida. However, there are local areas of Florida where the soil is much richer like continental areas further north because such regions are much older.

They call these areas hammocks because they are dense areas of forest that have a massive diversity of unique biomass that thrives in the older, richer soil. It's believed many of the hammocks are part of the island areas of Florida that emerged much before the rest of the land mass. I visited one with my family earlier this year called Highlands Hammock State Park in Highlands county. It's truly an incredible place. We went there in May, which is usually the driest time of the year in Florida, and the amount of green and water there was incredible despite it being the dry season. It honestly is like a little piece of the Amazon right at home in Florida. If you love the feeling of massive ancient trees and an incredible amount of biodiversity and unique life, I would definitely suggest going there.

Link

Sadly, apparently earlier in Florida's history, the hammocks were more common, but many of them were cut down due to their rich diversity in hard wood trees. Thankfully now the state parks system is doing it's best to protect and preserve them.


I enjoyed reading your post. It brought to mind the many times I have explored Florida's hardwood hammocks enjoying the scenery and looking for orchids to photograph. Wekiva Springs State Park is another amazing natural area, where a few more tropical species intermingle with many temperature species near the southern edge of their native ranges. The Fakahatchee strand, in SW FL is also a unique area of tropical swamp, prairie and hardwood hammock. I actually saw a ghost orchid there, as well as many other tropical orchid, bromeliad and fern species. I knew it was time to turn around when a large, angry cottonmouth stood at attention, jaws wide open in the middle of the path.

It has made it up to 86F here today, as summer in mid-fall continues. This next front should bring us down to normal temperatures though for several days.
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

Monster deep low combined with the jet stream pattern over eastern half of Conus:






It's not so much a stream anymore as a wall. :P

The jetstream over the past few years has begun to look more like what would happen if you gave an 8 year old a six pack of red bull and a giant can of silly string.

Maybe the weather is trying for a new style. You know, like a weather mullet. Tornadoes up front, blizzards out back.
Wednesday, November 18th 2015 – 07:53 UTC
Tierra del Fuego ozone alert with ‘UV radiation reaching extreme risk or harm’

Tierra del Fuego in south Argentina has sent out a warning to residents in the province that the ozone layer hole as it expands to the north, over the tip of South America continent this week, it will be reaching its maximum size with UV radiation at 12, violet or extreme alert. The information was provided by Argentina’s VAG Ushuaia Station.

Link
Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare same date 2014 2015 nov 18 temps 2m level






Huge differences in the S. Hemisphere, even Antarctica. Wow.
here is a 1997 2 m nov 18 temps

Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster




Deadly Floods Hit Chennai, India

“The rain that was meant to be spread out over the monsoon months has poured in just a few days,” Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister Jayalalithaa said in a statement to reporters in Chennai.

“Low pressure in the middle and lower atmosphere moving slow west over southern India was responsible for the heavy rain that caused the flooding,” weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce says. Chennai measured more than a foot of rain (306 mm) in the 48 hours ending Monday.

The rain is forecast to continue, affecting not just Tamil Nadu but the neighboring southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka as well. In nearby Sri Lanka, upwards of 80,000 people are also seeing the effects of the rain, according to BBC.

The rains come at an unexpected time as Andhra Pradesh had recently declared a drought. With the drastic excess of rain, IBN Live reports that efforts are being made to fill 8,000 water tanks.

Link
George, last year (a year to the day I believe) the mid afternoon temperature was 47F here, as a potent Arctic airmass moved in and I had to protect my most tender plants. That was the coldest afternoon of the 2014-2015 winter here, in mid November.
Quoting 54. Misanthroptimist:

My hunch is that this is where CC really begins to take off. I think the trend will increase after the La Niña that will follow our current El Niño. I think extreme weather will increase, too.

I also expect Earth another new record low for Arctic extent and volume sea ice in 2017, possibly even "ice free" for a day or two.

I just have a feeling that this is where CC really starts to be a problem.


While your prediction of of an ice-free day or two in 2017 is possible, it is unlikely. It would require back to back 2012/2007 like melt seasons coupled with low ice accumulation during the winter months. A new record minimum is more likely, but since any single year of melt is highly dependent on weather even making a call a few months in advance is tricky. All it takes is a few weeks of persistent cloud cover/fog (or lack thereof) during the peak insolation to noticeably impact the melt season.

In my opinion a new record minimum is pretty likely, but I still don't think we'll be seeing "ice free" until 2030 or so. Conservative estimates have it occurring in the 2040-2050 time frame.
Quoting 66. Xyrus2000:



While your prediction of of an ice-free day or two in 2017 is possible, it is unlikely. It would require back to back 2012/2007 like melt seasons coupled with low ice accumulation during the winter months. A new record minimum is more likely, but since any single year of melt is highly dependent on weather even making a call a few months in advance is tricky. All it takes is a few weeks of persistent cloud cover/fog (or lack thereof) during the peak insolation to noticeably impact the melt season.

In my opinion a new record minimum is pretty likely, but I still don't think we'll be seeing "ice free" until 2030 or so. Conservative estimates have it occurring in the 2040-2050 time frame.


The Canadian Archipelago coastline will probably be the last to melt out. I'm watching for the date where everything north of 89N including the NORTH POLE is ice free.
(And Santa has to swim)
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Winnipeg

Winter is coming.

An intense low pressure system with a strong cold front will sweep across the province today bringing an abrupt end to the mild November weather. Behind the cold front temperatures will plummet to normal for this time of year with overnight lows in the minus double digits occurring by Friday morning.

Along with the falling temperatures blustery northwesterly winds and flurries will accompany the cold front. Winds of 60 to 70 gusting to 90 km/h are forecast with the strongest winds occurring over the southwestern section of the province. Wind warnings are in effect for these areas. Meanwhile the flurries combined with the strong winds may at times produce reduce visibilities in blowing snow.

On Thursday, precipitation associated with this disturbance will wrap around the back side of the system bringing accumulating snowfall. 5 to 10 cm of snow are likely across many areas. A snowfall warning has been issued for the Grand Rapids region where accumulations of near 15 cm are forecast. Snow squalls will also develop to the Lee of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg and areas downwind such as the Interlake and Whiteshell could see locally higher accumulations.

Conditions are expected to improve Thursday night as the system pulls off into Hudson Bay and winds diminish.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Quoting 42. Jedkins01:



Probably not very long in terms of grass plants and shrubs, the soil in most of Florida is poor in moisture holding qualities and poor in nutrients. Though trees would take a very long time to die simply because the water table is very high from a combination of being a wet climate and a lack of elevation change.

The reason for this is that geologists now agree that Florida started to emerge first as tropical desert islands with the rest of the landmass eventually emerging and was originally a drier subtropical desert climate like much of the southwest U.S. The sandy soil that is poor in holding water that sometimes appears like beach sand even well inland is no coincidence. These beach sand areas are just that, remnants of Florida's beachy soil past, giving reflection of how new of a land mass it is, and how much it's climate has changed. It's well accepted that the climate changed due to warming oceans, which led to the developing of the rain season. It's also believed that frontal storm tracks favor the southeast vs the southwest today more than they did several thousand years ago based on changing climate.

The reason why continental areas have such rich soil compared to Florida is that their history of the cycle of life, compost made from many generations of decomposed life is much longer than in Florida. However, there are local areas of Florida where the soil is much richer like continental areas further north because such regions are much older.

They call these areas hammocks because they are dense areas of forest that have a massive diversity of unique biomass that thrives in the older, richer soil. It's believed many of the hammocks are part of the island areas of Florida that emerged much before the rest of the land mass. I visited one with my family earlier this year called Highlands Hammock State Park in Highlands county. It's truly an incredible place. We went there in May, which is usually the driest time of the year in Florida, and the amount of green and water there was incredible despite it being the dry season. It honestly is like a little piece of the Amazon right at home in Florida. If you love the feeling of massive ancient trees and an incredible amount of biodiversity and unique life, I would definitely suggest going there.

Link

Sadly, apparently earlier in Florida's history, the hammocks were more common, but many of them were cut down due to their rich diversity in hard wood trees. Thankfully now the state parks system is doing it's best to protect and preserve them.


I've gardened in sand (Tallahassee south of the city) and clay (MD, PA, NJ) and much much prefer working with clay.
Clays hold nutrients and water a lot better.

Quoting 21. GeoffreyWPB:

Looks to be a wet weekend on hand for south Florida, followed by some seasonal temperatures...

LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...

THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND WET. FRONT IS
STATIONARY NEARBY, AND A ZONAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABLE
TO TRANSPORT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO FL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF
HAS SOME COPIOUS RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, BUT
GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY CONSIDERING THIS
PATTERN. MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. IN FACT, THE ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT AND IS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS
SHOVED THROUGH SOUTH FL INTO MONDAY. 100KT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF WILL PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT BUMP. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/GEFS 0Z
SUITE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE
CHANGE TO SAY THE LEAST AFTER A SIZZLING EARLY FALL.


Wish it was cooler Geoffrey, but we'll take it.
Special weather statement

Snow, blowing snow and colder air on the way.

Rain and mild conditions will change to snow with much colder temperatures tonight across Northwestern Ontario, and Thursday in areas further to the east as a strong cold front blasts across the region. Brisk westerly winds gusting to 60 km/h will usher in considerably colder air in the wake of the cold front, resulting in local blowing snow and reduced visibilities in Northwestern Ontario by Thursday.

Many areas of Northwestern Ontario will likely receive a total of 5 to 10 cm of snow by Thursday night.

In areas north and east of Lake Superior, much colder air will arrive Thursday, and as temperatures drop to near or below freezing, showers will change over to flurries, with an increasing potential for accumulating lake effect snow beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday. Snow squall watches and warnings may eventually be required.

Motorists should be prepared for difficult winter driving conditions after the cold air arrives, and allow extra time to reach their destination, as untreated roads may become snow covered and slippery.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
CC and terrorism. Just out in French news:

France bans massive marches planned during Paris climate talks
DM, By Reuters, Published: 19:16 GMT, 18 November 2015
PARIS, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Marches planned on Nov. 29 and Dec. 12 during the COP-21 international climate talks in Paris will not be authorised for security reasons, the French government said on Wednesday.
All demonstrations organised in closed spaces or in places where security can easily be ensured could go ahead, the government said in a statement.
"However, in order to avoid additional risks, the government has decided not to authorise climate marches planned in public places in Paris and other French cities on Nov. 29 and Dec. 12," it said.
Environmental activists have hoped the marches would attract perhaps 200,000 people to put pressure on governments to cut greenhouse gas emissions. They have had to rethink their plans following attacks in Paris last Friday that killed 129 people. (Reporting by Emmanuel Jarry; Writing by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Tom Heneghan)
Democrats have, like never before, been losing House, Senate, Governor, and State House and Senate seats. Republicans are sweeping the country and gerrymandering to keep that power entrenched. They take the White House and any pro Earth agenda will get ripped to shreds and an agenda against truth, for Big Business and the 1% will be enacted with ferocity. Oversight across the board will be thrown into the sea and we will have not dropped the ball on enacting real meaningful legislation towards lowering CO2 levels, we will have thrown it out the window along with hope. This is a test of the American will to care about truth. We are failing miserably currently. That must change. The question becomes how?
Quoting 66. Xyrus2000:



While your prediction of of an ice-free day or two in 2017 is possible, it is unlikely. It would require back to back 2012/2007 like melt seasons coupled with low ice accumulation during the winter months. A new record minimum is more likely, but since any single year of melt is highly dependent on weather even making a call a few months in advance is tricky. All it takes is a few weeks of persistent cloud cover/fog (or lack thereof) during the peak insolation to noticeably impact the melt season.

In my opinion a new record minimum is pretty likely, but I still don't think we'll be seeing "ice free" until 2030 or so. Conservative estimates have it occurring in the 2040-2050 time frame.

Everything you posted is utterly reasonable. OTOH, had our discussion taken place in 2010, it's likely neither of us would guess that ASI would plunge the way it did in 2012. So, while I agree that it's unlikely that there will be an "ice-free" day in the Arctic in 2017, I don't think it can be ruled out with much actual confidence.
Thank you,Dr. Masters. Whats up w/the like button?
Quoting 74. DeepSeaRising:

Democrats have, like never before, been losing House, Senate, Governor, and State House and Senate seats. Republicans are sweeping the country and gerrymandering to keep that power entrenched. They take the White House and any pro Earth agenda will get ripped to shreds and an agenda against truth, for Big Business and the 1% will be enacted with ferocity. Oversight across the board will be thrown into the sea and we will have not dropped the ball on enacting real meaningful legislation towards lowering CO2 levels, we will have thrown it out the window along with hope. This is a test of the American will to care about truth. We are failing miserably currently. That must change. The question becomes how?

In addition to gerrymandering, there is the fact that the Democrats don't differ very much from the Republicans on a wide variety of issues. The base just doesn't get very enthusiastic about candidates that aren't quite as bad as the other gal/guy.

Go figure.
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
little windy wet too
yet to arrive the rain
cold shot for the weekend here
with chills of - 10c and squalls of snow showers
begining late Friday night till early monday
Can you say meridional heat transport?
looks like rain from 5 pm onward till 9 am tomorrow morning
wet windy overnight too come for me here in south central Ontario



Anyone give any thought to these record temps being due to a shift in our seasons? Spring has been more than a month late the past few years.
Quoting 74. DeepSeaRising:

Democrats have, like never before, been losing House, Senate, Governor, and State House and Senate seats. Republicans are sweeping the country and gerrymandering to keep that power entrenched. They take the White House and any pro Earth agenda will get ripped to shreds and an agenda against truth, for Big Business and the 1% will be enacted with ferocity. Oversight across the board will be thrown into the sea and we will have not dropped the ball on enacting real meaningful legislation towards lowering CO2 levels, we will have thrown it out the window along with hope. This is a test of the American will to care about truth. We are failing miserably currently. That must change. The question becomes how?
Do you think threatening to shut down the fossil fuel industry will help or hurt electing a democratic president?
"combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming"

"combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide"

So based on these comments then I am to assume that global warming is caused only by humans and no natural causes. Didn't realize that.
Quoting 82. luvtogolf:

"combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming"

"combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide"

So based on these comments then I am to assume that global warming is caused only by humans and no natural causes. Didn't realize that.


What natural causes would you suggest? Cue silence.
Quoting 80. cajunkid:

Anyone give any thought to these record temps being due to a shift in our seasons? Spring has been more than a month late the past few years.


Depends where you live. Spring comes increasingly earlier, here in the UK. January frog spawning here is no longer remarkable.
Quoting 82. luvtogolf:

"combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming"

"combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide"

So based on these comments then I am to assume that global warming is caused only by humans and no natural causes. Didn't realize that.

Now you know. :-)

The current warming is attributable to human activity. Period.
Quoting 82. luvtogolf:

"combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming"

"combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide"

So based on these comments then I am to assume that global warming is caused only by humans and no natural causes. Didn't realize that.


Solar irradiance since 1950 has been slightly positive as seen in AR5 by the IPCC here:



However, post 1975 there has been little or no trend in solar output, suggesting that almost all of the current warming can be attributed to anthropogenic causes. In fact, most studies show that natural effects should be leading us down a slight cooling trend which suggests current human caused factors are responsible for more than 100% of the increase in temperature.
From Andrew Dessler, Climate scientist at Texas A&M on twitter:

"A few facts about how hot 2015 has been: The coldest month of 2015 is hotter than the warmest month of any year before 1990. Only 45 months of the 1630-month record are warmer than coldest month of 2015; 41 occurred since 2000; other 4 occurred in the 1990s. Only 16 years in the historical record have any month hotter than the coldest month of 2015. (based on GISTEMP)"
Quoting 82. luvtogolf:

"combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming"

"combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide"

So based on these comments then I am to assume that global warming is caused only by humans and no natural causes. Didn't realize that.


Please point out which natural causes were at play -

Results from the world's top monitoring agencies vary slightly, but this month, the NOAA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and NASA are all in agreement: October was brutal. The past few months have been so extreme that 2015 will go down as the hottest year on record even if November and December are unusually cool (which they won't be).

Link
Quoting 49. tampabaymatt:



There is virtually no chance of this. Perception is reality in politics, and the media has already handed Hillary Clinton the nomination. While he is leading Clinton in the primary polls in some key states, I don’t believe he has any shot at the nomination. While I disagree with a lot of his proposed policies, he really is the loudest proponent of any of the candidates for doing something about climate change. It’s amazing to me that in all of these debates, climate change is hardly discussed.

I registered as a Democrat so that I can vote in the primary. My vote will go to Mr. Sanders to run for President in 2016. You 'ALL' can do the same. Make change,happen. CC is happening and 'Bernie',will address the problem. IMO. :) Peace.
Interesting news, France is considering banning the climate march during the climate meeting in Paris at the end of the month. More than 200,000 people were expected to rally. While I do not like the idea of the march being cancelled, I think the actions of the French government in limiting speech speak more to the actual concern they have for public safety and the possibilities of more attacks. We live in a very strange time.
Quoting 88. Naga5000:

From Andrew Dessler, Climate scientist at Texas A&M on twitter:

"A few facts about how hot 2015 has been: The coldest month of 2015 is hotter than the warmest month of any year before 1990. Only 45 months of the 1630-month record are warmer than coldest month of 2015; 41 occurred since 2000; other 4 occurred in the 1990s. Only 16 years in the historical record have any month hotter than the coldest month of 2015. (based on GISTEMP)"

Yikes!
Quoting 37. Patrap:


We need comprehensive legislation to aggressively transform our energy system away from fossil fuel to clean energy. We can create a new sustainable energy economy to protect vulnerable communities while transitioning workers into renewable energy jobs. The United States must lead the world in confronting this planetary crisis.

Bernie Sanders


I have near 100% faith that the exact opposite will happen unfortunately.
Quoting 68. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Looks like an "atmospheric river" extending from off the Mexican Pacific coast all the way to the Arctic. That's a lot of heat being transported straight to the pole.
Quoting 88. Naga5000:

From Andrew Dessler, Climate scientist at Texas A&M on twitter:

"A few facts about how hot 2015 has been: The coldest month of 2015 is hotter than the warmest month of any year before 1990. Only 45 months of the 1630-month record are warmer than coldest month of 2015; 41 occurred since 2000; other 4 occurred in the 1990s. Only 16 years in the historical record have any month hotter than the coldest month of 2015. (based on GISTEMP)"


that's just...ugh.
This Bloomberg graphic is pretty amazing -

We are in uncharted territory. These new milestones follow the hottest summer on record, the hottest 12 months on record, the hottest calendar year on record (2014), and the hottest decade on record. The animation below shows the Earth's warming climate, recorded in monthly measurements from land and sea dating back to 1880. Temperatures are displayed in degrees above or below the 20th century average. Thirteen of the 14 hottest years have come in the 21st century, and it's only the beginning.

Link
Quoting 80. cajunkid:

Anyone give any thought to these record temps being due to a shift in our seasons? Spring has been more than a month late the past few years.


Weather at points varies. Spring has been increasingly late in the Mid Atlantic since 2012 (record early) to 2015 (very late but followed by early onset of summer). I have no idea what 2016 will be like though experience with previos Ninos has been cool, stormy and wet. 2010 (near record warm) and 1973 (warmish) were exceptions to this assumption.
The main line of storms has not actually moved much to the East since I last checked in 2 hours ago and the line is almost aligned north-south; point being that the slow craw is going to bring lots of rain in the bands.  The good news news is that no tornado warnings have sprung up since the earlier cluster in the Fl Panhandle:

today Reports Graphic

Quoting 92. Naga5000:

Interesting news, France is considering banning the climate march during the climate meeting in Paris at the end of the month. More than 200,000 people were expected to rally. While I do not like the idea of the march being cancelled, I think the actions of the French government in limiting speech speak more to the actual concern they have for public safety and the possibilities of more attacks. We live in a very strange time.


Can't show fear, every person that would go to a rally that close after a attack know the possibilities of another. Overcoming adversity from terrorist shows a much stronger message then cancelling due to fear.
Tropical Depression 21E getting together off the Mexican Pacific coast.
Mention of "atmospheric rivers" brings to mind the articles I've read about the ARkStorm scenario (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm ), an extreme event which has actually taken place in California in the historical past (December 1861 through January 1862). The setup in late 2015 to early 2016 would seem to be propitious for the recurrence of an ARkStorm in California. It would be truly a situation of "be careful what you wish for (rain), you just might get it". Let's hope they just get what they need there, as the alternative would be genuinely catastrophic.
Quoting 100. SouthCentralTx:



Can't show fear, every person that would go to a rally that close after a attack know the possibilities of another. Overcoming adversity from terrorist shows a much stronger message then cancelling due to fear.


I don't know if I agree or disagree. And by my own admission, my head is clouded with some school reading on the topic of terrorism so I'm not going to really comment much further. I think it is safe to say I both agree that cancelling the event and holding the event are dicey decisions at this point. How's that for fence sitting. :)
Quoting 101. BayFog:

Tropical Depression 21E getting together off the Mexican Pacific coast.


LLC clearly becomes exposed in the last few frames of that loop, moving in a very strange direction(SE).
If this current low was traversing towards the Great Lakes a few weeks from now, they could have been looking at a snow event rather than the current rain event due to the current mild temps along the Eastern Seaboard/Great Lakes region:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



Quoting 100. SouthCentralTx:



Can't show fear, every person that would go to a rally that close after a attack know the possibilities of another. Overcoming adversity from terrorist shows a much stronger message then cancelling due to fear.

I agree. My wife had a trip to Disney World scheduled a few days after 9/11. She and my son went as scheduled, despite the attack. Nice weather and short lines.
Neven's site -

If global warming continues unabated...

Here's a Discover magazine article I noticed a couple of days ago, containing a nice (but big) animation that shows how many days per year (parts of) the Arctic will be ice-free in the future if things keep going as they are:

If global warming continues unabated, humans are likely to completely remake the map of the Arctic in a few decades


ASI
Quoting 170. Xyrus2000:



You're not stating facts. You're stating conjecture/conspiracy theory with no supporting evidence.

Insurance companies base premiums on risk models and they have to be justified. There are some pretty strict regulations about what insurance can and cannot do, including how much money they need to keep on hand to cover costs. For example, an insurance company can't raise rates just because they feel like lining their pockets.

Before you start making wild claims, try doing some research first. Look at what your insurance covers, then look for the data related to risks associated with that coverage. For example, for flood insurance look for data regarding inundation recurrence. For severe weather in general, look at data related to that. Look at how much damage (dollar wise) the events are and their frequency. Most of the data is freely available or is a simple email away.

Then gather up the demographic data for your region. What's been happening with home/land values? What's been happening with the population? So on and so forth. Again, you can find this information easily and for free online.

Now you have enough data for a simple model. You can do best case, average case, and worst case. Project how much each scenario is likely to cost, then use the demographic data to figure out an average cost per person. For extra credit, utilize climate and growth projections for your region to estimate how rates will change over the next couple of decades.

If you see the cost trend line going up, then you know why the insurance companies in the area are raising their rates. If you see the trend lines going down, but insurance costs are still going up (at significantly more than inflation), you now have evidence to your local/state officials to indicate possible foul play.

It's so much easier to vilify something than to understand it. No one likes to see their premiums go up, but the first response shouldn't be to grab torches and pitchforks. It should be investigating WHY they have gone up.



.
.
.
.
.
You're being naive Xyrus. I'm not talking conspiracy theory here or villifying the insurance corporations. They're doing what they're supposed to do...make as much money as possible. My whole thought was pretty much the same thought I expressed on Dr. Rood's blog a few weeks ago...the "Risky Business" blog. He thought I had some good insight, sorry that you don't.
.
The only thing new I added here was the exact amount my home insurance has gone up(17k) over the last 5 years. I should have been more specific, that rise is 100% the windstorm part of the homeowners insurance. I'm also not in a surge zone or flood zone. I don't believe there's been a single claim for hurricane damage in the last 10 years in the area within 50(probably more like 500) miles of me in all directions. For justification the insurance and re-insurance companies have used those studies that hypothesized more and more, here. They expanded their 1 in 20 year, 50 year, 100 year areas. Maybe they'll be right, but there really is no science that so far that has been able to PROVE the theories of more extreme events here. It's the intersection of a long-term problem(AGW) with the short-term consequences.
Quoting 102. LariAnn:

Mention of "atmospheric rivers" brings to mind the articles I've read about the ARkStorm scenario (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm ), an extreme event which has actually taken place in California in the historical past (December 1861 through January 1862). The setup in late 2015 to early 2016 would seem to be propitious for the recurrence of an ARkStorm in California. It would be truly a situation of "be careful what you wish for (rain), you just might get it". Let's hope they just get what they need there, as the alternative would be genuinely catastrophic.


No Ark storms, please.

Although I've always been curious about what the setup actually looked like for that storm. It wasn't an El Nino year, but there was persistent anomalous troughing along the West Coast. Perhaps somebody smarter than me like Webberweather could shed more light on it, but the reasons for that setup being stuck in place for months on end seem like a total mystery.
Quoting 100. SouthCentralTx:
Can't show fear, every person that would go to a rally that close after a attack know the possibilities of another. Overcoming adversity from terrorist shows a much stronger message then cancelling due to fear.
I actually agree with you for once. The ongoing actions of many public figures here in the U.S. are exactly the kind of thing terrorists want. The 24 hour news media (includes internet) does not help either.
Anchorage tied a record low today.
Tampa hit 89 degrees at 2:31 p.m., which broke the record of 88 set on this date in 1988. This was the seventh record high this month.
Quoting 112. tampabaymatt:

Tampa hit 89 degrees at 2:31 p.m., which broke the record of 88 set on this date in 1988. This was the seventh record high this month.


We tied a record here in Orlando today of 88. Looking forward to the rain and cooler air moving forward.
Quoting 15. ColoradoBob1:

From the turn around don't drown file :

Flash floods turn deadly in Jeddah

A 48 sec. U-tube clip
Why, why, why do people do this? Maybe in this case they thought because the police, or whoever was driving the SUVs with the flashing lights gave them a false sense of security.
Well, last night the yellow steaks in the "river" started disappearing as it headed E out of the StL metro, where it had dropped up to 6.5" in spots. (Not sure if that was a daily or overall storm total.) I'd had .4" more in gauge at lunch after dumping 1.5" that morning. Ended up only dumping .8" this morning. Most of this 2.3" came in slow, so don't think there was too much that didn't sink in. Needed that after a pretty dry fall up to now.

Had a half and half sky in S C IL at lunch, eastern cloudy, western had lots of blue with clouds here and there. Currently have 58 w/ a 45 dew pt. Pressure up slightly to 29.57" from the 29.55 saw around lunch. Avg S wind a little higher than yesterday, at 13-15, & starting to get a little westerly component now. Gust also higher at 33-34, not sure what peak was last night, but a few things blown around that didn't in 30s last week.

About to head off on my annual 5 vacation days for 11 off fall vacation, so if I don't pop in, wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.
2 Tornado warnings so far and it looks like the nasty stuff is still inbound... :(

Quoting 115. Loduck:

Why, why, why do people do this? Maybe in this case they thought because the police, or whoever was driving the SUVs with the flashing lights gave them a false sense of security.


That maybe, but they are in a desert , and driving in rain isn't something they have a lot of experience with. Although , the last few years have produced several of these things there.
Quoting 117. ColoradoBob1:

.



Quoting 104. TimSoCal:


LLC clearly becomes exposed in the last few frames of that loop, moving in a very strange direction(SE).


That is weird, but I don't think it's the primary LLC.
“Poking the dragon with a stick” –

The volume of methane during transition from a solid to a gaseous state increases about 150 times.

Link
Ha, where's Patrap's Climate Dagon when we need it???

Funny thing is if you draw a line from 1997 to 2015 the global heating trend line matches up (so much for hiatus). Looks like 2015 will spike even higher after November and December weigh in.

120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

faster and faster
Quoting 120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





...Wonder what Grothar's wet suit looked like???
Quoting 101. BayFog:

Tropical Depression 21E getting together off the Mexican Pacific coast.

Is that a tornado moving to the SE at the bottom of the loop?
Quoting 70. georgevandenberghe:



I've gardened in sand (Tallahassee south of the city) and clay (MD, PA, NJ) and much much prefer working with clay.
Clays hold nutrients and water a lot better.




Yeah it definitely does, Tallahassee(the city and surrounding area) has clay compared to the lower elevations south of town that are sandy. The grass manages to stay green during droughts here with little rain, and the forests have very large and tall trees around here. The soil is definitely more nutrient rich here than further south in the lower terrain in the sandy soil that you were referring to.
Quoting 114. Naga5000:



We tied a record here in Orlando today of 88. Looking forward to the rain and cooler air moving forward.


Cooler air! You me global warming is ending!! I knew it!

Anyway, the heat has been just flipping ridiculous. No fall whatsoever. Normal temps sound great right now.
Quoting 118. JNFlori30A:

2 Tornado warnings so far and it looks like the nasty stuff is still inbound... :(




Minus the tornadoes though, it's a good thing because rain is always good as long as it's not a destructive flash flood.

It's interesting that an unexpected line of thunderstorms has formed well out ahead of the original one and looks to bring an early arrival of heavy rains for us. It has led to those 2 tornado warnings in the graphic, hopefully it won;t bring more tornado warnings here, but I'd like to see a good heavy thunderstorm.
131. vis0

Quoting 8. sar2401:

Pretty strange storms over here in South Alabama and the Panhandle. The only severe storms are coming in off the Gulf, caused by the tail of the cold front as it moves ENE. A particularly strong cell is ashore in Destin FL, prompting a tornado warning for a radar indicated tornado. There has been at least one report of a citizen seeing the tornado on the ground just north of Destin, but I haven't seen any other confirmation yet. None of the storms from the front pushing east in Alabama have been severe, and most are just the usual storms we get in November, Believe it or not, the line is still nowhere near me. I have a doctor's appointment in Dothan at 1:00, a 50 mile drive south. There's a 100% chance of torrential rain then. :-)
just reinstating what i've said for ~4 yrs so if you read that no need to read it again, ya know ml-d stuff, of course pay more attn to flooding near by or watches/warns, zilly pg5 cmmnt 208
Quoting 130. Jedkins01:



Minus the tornadoes though, it's a good thing because rain is always good as long as it's not a destructive flash flood.

It's interesting that an unexpected line of thunderstorms has formed well out ahead of the original one and looks to bring an early arrival of heavy rains for us. It has led to those 2 tornado warnings in the graphic, hopefully it won;t bring more tornado warnings here, but I'd like to see a good heavy thunderstorm.

Got a good downpour going on now hear at Blue Mt Beach.. Just had lightening out the window that was very low to the ground it was more like a bomb exploding...
Quoting 112. tampabaymatt:

Tampa hit 89 degrees at 2:31 p.m., which broke the record of 88 set on this date in 1988. This was the seventh record high this month.


More crazy warmth, wow. I'm sure that frontal passage is going to be that much more enjoyable. Highs should struggle just to get above 70 on Sunday and Monday. Here we'll struggle to hit 60 for highs during those days and a possibility of dipping below 40.
Quoting 133. JNFlori30A:

Got a good downpour going on now hear at Blue Mt Beach.. Just had lightening out the window that was very low to the ground it was more like a bomb exploding...


Yeah that type of thunder is always surprising. I've definitely experienced thunder like that a number of times and it's amazing.
November has been cancelled due to inclement weather.

138. beell


It snowed in Texas yesterday!
Thanks for the Update and I see they fixed the button. It was there earlier but wasn't working. Now it is working. There are a whole 5 's. OK, everyone go use it now and make up for lost time...lol

Edit: now up to 17 's (23:29UTC)
Quoting 125. JNFlori30A:

...Wonder what Grothar's wet suit looked like???



Every 65 million years I have to go through this. It's getting old.

Quoting 123. VibrantPlanet:

Ha, where's Patrap's Climate Dagon when we need it???

Funny thing is if you draw a line from 1997 to 2015 the global heating trend line matches up (so much for hiatus). Looks like 2015 will spike even higher after November and December weigh in.




With the Nino as strong as it is now, November could top 1.0C globally for the first time. Yikes.
The ECMWF has been showing a system developing north of the Bahamas and moving west.

Quoting 102. LariAnn:

Mention of "atmospheric rivers" brings to mind the articles I've read about the ARkStorm scenario (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm ), an extreme event which has actually taken place in California in the historical past (December 1861 through January 1862). The setup in late 2015 to early 2016 would seem to be propitious for the recurrence of an ARkStorm in California. It would be truly a situation of "be careful what you wish for (rain), you just might get it". Let's hope they just get what they need there, as the alternative would be genuinely catastrophic.
You need to read that article again. The Arkstorm was invented by the USGS to use as part of their Multihazards Demonstration Project for a disaster planning scenario by various emergency responder departments in California. It was never meant to be used as a probable, or even likely, scenario for a real Arkstorm. The results of the hypothetical Arkstorm, while similar in some ways to the 1861-62 floods, would be many times worse, since the assumption was for a 500-1000 year event that would completely overwhelm all the flood defenses of California. The Arkstorm scenario was never meant to be released to the public but, now that it has, it has attained kind of mythological place in people's thinking. A big storm like the 1861-62 event would cause a lot of damage and losses, but what happened then was before there were any flood defenses in place. You'd also need to see almost a winter's worth of snow in the Sierra by Christmas, in addition to the rain, to produce another 1861-62 event. If this El Nino produces the kinds of rains we saw in 1982-83, there will be extensive flooding, just as there was then, but a repeat of the 1861-62 results is not likely.
Quoting 142. TimSoCal:



With the Nino as strong as it is now, November could top 1.0C globally for the first time. Yikes.


You are talking about the positive anomaly to the 20th century average right? I wonder what the anomaly is compared to a pre-industrial baseline.
Quoting 136. Jedkins01:



Yeah that type of thunder is always surprising. I've definitely experienced thunder like that a number of times and it's amazing.
Rather surprisingly, given the atmosphere, I've had one lightning strike and no thunder that I've heard. The rain, however, has been almost Florida-reffic. It started at 3:10, and I'm at 2.89 now, an hour an twenty minutes later, and it's still coming down. The low spots in the yard and around town are flooded but it's just the usual nuisance type stuff. The only severe threat is over in Georgia, and even that is starting to peter out as the low continues to move far to the north. I'm now at almost seven inches for the month, the highest monthly total of the year. At least over in my neck of the woods, this has been a beneficial storm.
Quoting 103. Naga5000:



I don't know if I agree or disagree. And by my own admission, my head is clouded with some school reading on the topic of terrorism so I'm not going to really comment much further. I think it is safe to say I both agree that cancelling the event and holding the event are dicey decisions at this point. How's that for fence sitting. :)
Given the performance of French security forces to date, I'd have to go along with the ban on large public demonstrations. It's hard enough to provide security for a march of 200,000, but the French police would only make a bad situation worse. After allowing Abdelhamid Abaaoud through a roadblock, when he actually showed them his real driver's licence, they then proceeded to attack an apartment block where they thought he was hiding. After a gunfight, during which the police used enough explosives to collapse the structure, it turns out he wasn't there either. No, Paris is not the place for a huge march right now. Maybe never.
Quoting 80. cajunkid:

Anyone give any thought to these record temps being due to a shift in our seasons? Spring has been more than a month late the past few years.

Is there a physical mechanism by which such a thing should occur? Is that physical mechanism in play now?

Also keep in mind that such a shift could not create warming. It would create changes of similar magnitude, in opposite directions, at different points in the year. That is, IF such a thing were occuring.
TORNADO WARNING
FLC039-182330-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0040.151118T2249Z-151118T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
549 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GADSDEN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EST

* AT 548 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENSBORO...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
QUINCY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINCY...HAVANA...GREENSBORO...GRETNA...QUINCY AIRPORT...SHADY
REST...JAMIESON...BRANCHVILLE...DOUGLAS CITY...SAWDUST...JUNIPER...
LITTMAN...DOGTOWN...WETUMPKA...CONCORD...HINSON... FLORENCE...
DARSEY...FREEMONT AND SANTA CLARA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 8471 3046 8471 3046 8473 3050 8478
3052 8478 3070 8466 3069 8434 3068 8431
3043 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 221DEG 22KT 3049 8472

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

JLF


Quoting 146. sar2401:

Rather surprisingly, given the atmosphere, I've had one lightning strike and no thunder that I've heard. The rain, however, has been almost Florida-reffic. It started at 3:10, and I'm at 2.89 now, an hour an twenty minutes later, and it's still coming down. The low spots in the yard and around town are flooded but it's just the usual nuisance type stuff. The only severe threat is over in Georgia, and even that is starting to peter out as the low continues to move far to the north. I'm now at almost seven inches for the month, the highest monthly total of the year. At least over in my neck of the woods, this has been a beneficial storm.


Wow that's a lot of rain, November being the wettest month of the year is certainly not the typical in southern Alabama. Also yes this system in general is lacking in lightning. The cells to the west of me that have a severe and a tornado warning only have a couple lightning strikes.
Observed Tornado


Quoting 147. sar2401:

Given the performance of French security forces to date, I'd have to go along with the ban on large public demonstrations. It's hard enough to provide security for a march of 200,000, but the French police would only make a bad situation worse. After allowing Abdelhamid Abaaoud through a roadblock, when he actually showed them his real driver's licence, they then proceeded to attack an apartment block where they thought he was hiding. After a gunfight, during which the police used enough explosives to collapse the structure, it turns out he wasn't there either. No, Paris is not the place for a huge march right now. Maybe never.
More baseless insults. In truth, France's anti-terror forces are considered to be among the best in the world.
Quoting 150. Jedkins01:



Wow that's a lot of rain, November being the wettest month of the year is certainly not the typical in southern Alabama. Also yes this system in general is lacking in lightning. The cells to the west of me that have a severe and a tornado warning only have a couple lightning strikes.
We've had a few wet November's, but they were associated with tropical storms. November is typically our driest month after October. The average rainfall for November is 4.19". The highest average for any month (using the Dothan records, since that's closest official station) is July, at 5.95", again influenced by tropical storms. I'm at 6.97" right now, with the month only a little over half gone. Quite remarkable.

The only real severe storms and/or tornadoes were right along the coast in the Panhandle. The interesting thing watching these this morning was how the storms were coming in already severe from the Gulf. It's like the ones that usually fall apart before they get to Florida, but this time they didn't fall apart.

This tornado warning was just issued by Tallahassee. It's a first for me. I've never seen a tornado on the ground part of the warning without some visual confirmation before. Since when has radar indicated been enough for this language?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
614 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GADSDEN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 614 PM EST...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
QUINCY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAINBRIDGE...ATTAPULGUS...FOWLSTOWN...LAINGKAT...A MSTERDAM...
DOGTOWN AND FACEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING.
Quoting 151. nrtiwlnvragn:

Observed Tornado



Observed visually by who?
Quoting 79. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like rain from 5 pm onward till 9 am tomorrow morning
wet windy overnight too come for me here in south central Ontario




Very large cold front. It is going to produce a lot of rain tomorrow.
Quoting 143. Grothar:

The ECMWF has been showing a system developing north of the Bahamas and moving west.


I saw the GFS showing something too.
Quoting 152. Neapolitan:

More baseless insults. In truth, France's anti-terror forces are considered to be among the best in the world.
Insults by whom? Baseless?
Quoting 154. sar2401:

Observed visually by who?


NWS changed the wording on the graphic from "Tornado Observed" to "Tornado Radar Indicated". I was just repeating what the NWS reported.
When NY had their climate change march I only remembered Astro that went..none of the other regular WU keyboard warriors here went..

so how many of yall are going to the France climate change march?
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH FL TONIGHT-THU THEN SLOWLY INTO
SOUTH FL BY LATE FRIDAY AND HANGING UP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RATHER HIGH WITH PW
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND POSSIBLY UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH IS
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM AVERAGE. THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS WHY THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY
RIDING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH COULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO FLARE UP. NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE...COOLING
ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES. SREF PLUMES SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGHEST EAST COAST METRO WITH MEAN RAINFALL AT
1-2", BUT WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING 3"+. SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...MID LEVELS COOL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TSTORMS AS WELL.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
STATES LATE THIS WEEK CARVES OUT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS LOOKS TO SEND THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH OF
OUR AREA BY LATE SUN OR MON WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK! DEWPOINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
60S...AT LEAST. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON WHAT OCCURS NEXT WEEK WITH
ECMWF CUTTING OFF A LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHICH MEANDERS
THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WAVES OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
THE ATLANTIC COAST. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT SHOWS STILL A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC FOR CONTINUED SHOWER POTENTIAL. EITHER
WAY...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A "CLEAN" COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
/GREGORIA

For West Palm Beach...


Quoting 138. beell:



It snowed in Texas yesterday!

According to Google Maps, that corner of Texas is at an elevation of between 4600 and 4700 ft.
Water spout in Destin today..
163. vis0

Quoting 54. Misanthroptimist:

My hunch is that this is where CC really begins to take off. I think the trend will increase after the La Niña that will follow our current El Niño. I think extreme weather will increase, too.

I also expect Earth another new record low for Arctic extent and volume sea ice in 2017, possibly even "ice free" for a day or two.

I just have a feeling that this is where CC really starts to be a problem.

THE FOLLOWING IS NOT FACT, just agreeing with Misanthroptimist but adding my crazy 2cents, DO NOT USE any of the following as fact (can hear Taz saying "you did knot have two tell us that againagain). Just place this info in the brain for future reference, next to where you usually place your car keys and forget.

For a few years now (decade or more) CC has-i think NOT official-  influenced weather. The main reason its not noticed on an everyday basis is it happens "a bit" there a 'bit" here and since humans during this period of social growth tends to pay attention more as to what happening near by those record breaking due to an influence of CC still happened just far apart in time & distance that it did not enter our most important personal everyday thoughts (as Does McDee have an hour breakfast 24/7, who is on the tonite show, if my insurance payments going up again, how will i pay for my kids education and at the same time make the world better (at least not worse) for them, FB, Tweets,  etc etc.

Now as we get closer to what i call Sun phases completing "
4 corners" ~40 yrs (40 is a mean average of 34-42 yrs)  x 4 of industrial pollutants building up so 160 yrs after the Industrial revolution + chemical additives stage (IR-CS) began late ~1800s AD. Again IR in its first state was ~1700s-1800s but steam was/is  not a pollutant on its own,  nor spinning weaving versus loom weaving that much "dirtier", coal YES! still  i consider the the early 1900s and on as to the IR chemical stage (IR-CS) to be the top nemesis to nature as before 1900s nature could deal with the pollution since the human demand was not at a breaking point level, once human population exploded the IR-CS demand expanded to where nature could not keep up with the mess humans made. 
The IR-CS world wide assimilation and rising demand  (or to historians "accepted assault" on nature) began in the 1900s add 10 yrs for the chemical reactions delay factor and in 20-25 years (2040-2050 AD) CC i believe will be in every ones face at least every other day.

This Sun phase as i call it (not any except definition nor a sun cycle of ~11yrs) i state bathe this planet in a form of harmonics (Low Hz) and when a trend in the complex planets heath encompasses 4 of those Sun phases then Nature steps up its balancing act as changes occur in the planets Magmasphere.  Magmasphere???, another name i made up in the 1970s, and has to do with how magnetic field rotate under/within mantels and its influence on weather where it connects short term to long term trends and a sick planets Magmasphere influences weather  in a manner that adds more interactions leading to the more taping in moisture in turn into more drastic changes in weather from deeper droughts to reoccurring floods.

Think of the Magmasphere in a sick planet as taking an average Kiddie Roller Coaster ride where the not too steep up n downs are the weather trends.   Now imagine the Magmasphere being able to amplify the ups n downs of the kiddie roller coaster by push-pulling on rotations in nature/weather as  the (repel)opposing-attracting ends of 2 magnets and changing that kiddie roller coaster to a full fledged Six flags® adult roller coaster  ride.  So extremes happen more often in both high and low ranges therefore extreme 500 yr events will happen every year and in neighboring countries not just 1 o3 500 yr events happening half way around the globe from each other.

BTW did anyone notice the news as to putting out fires with Low sounds, anyone remember my blog on that subject here at WxU in 2011, 2012??? and how to use deep sound for FIRE rescues Only attached to fire truck low base funneled amplifying speakers fireproof accordion tubes, YET how those deep base police-ambulance sirens used since ~2011 are BAD for humanity and should be removed, replaced by RF transmission that interfere with ones radio-iPod while driving that announces over ones radio-iPod that they are blocking an emergency vehicles motion/progress (you should not be iPoding while driving PERIOD)  . That blog also stated how today's Tornado horns can actually accentuate more tornadic activities by its higher pitch where i had clues how to use the same horns but with low DEEP base sounds to cause Tornadoes to skip over communities by the angle used and that specific third of a Tornado it should be aimed at lets see who developes that. Also typed how BOSE sounds curved deep base speakers though copyrighted are how certain black holes trap light to turn it into deep LOW Hz and in time recycle the ability to create life, but i'm a nut what do i know.

OBSERVE weather/nature and learn.
Quoting 157. Kenfa03:

Insults by whom? Baseless?
I'd just point out that, listed in the same article linked to by that person, there were five terrorist attacks in France in 2015 alone. The only one one thwarted was accomplished by three Americans, two of whom were off duty military. The French police only took the terrorist into custody and cleaned up the blood. There's a reason why France has suffered so many high profile attacks, and it's not because France's anti terrorism forces are the best in the world.
Miami NWS Disco Disco you say? Must always look like this in the office
Quoting 161. ACSeattle:


According to Google Maps, that corner of Texas is at an elevation of between 4600 and 4700 ft.
They don't call it the High Plains fur nuttin'. :-)
History Channel - Modern Marvels - Renewable Energy Learn more about photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, bio-diesel fuel, and geothermal energy.

This is the way to go, in fact we are bringing back some of the old ideas like bio-diesel fuel. Right now as I see it, renewable energy will become the top producing source of energy and oil and natural gas will become 2nd and 3rd, this will become good news in preserving those resources and helping to curb C02 and other GHG emissions that are responsible for the increase in Global temperatures. In my Bart Scott voice, "Can't Wait!"
nice to see that we south Floridians will enjoy a taste of the fall by the upcoming week.i say it was about time.i just hope that it does not rain or get cloudy during those days
That would be none..

Got it..
Quoting 158. nrtiwlnvragn:



NWS changed the wording on the graphic from "Tornado Observed" to "Tornado Radar Indicated". I was just repeating what the NWS reported.
I understand. It wasn't a swipe at you. I'm just surprised to see the "tornado on the ground" wording in the warning text I posted for a tornado that's only radar indicated. We get lots of radar indicated tornado warnings in Alabama, and very few are ever confirmed as tornadoes.
That would be none..

Got it..
Quoting 159. ncstorm:

When NY had their climate change march I only remembered Astro that went..none of the other regular WU keyboard warriors here went..

so how many of yall are going to the France climate change march?

Well, given the hassle, expense, etc. in making such a trip, I'd wager few. By your logic us making that trip would be a waste of jet fuel which would make us hypocrites for going. FWIW, I've signed a petition as I'm sure others here have urging action by the world leaders there. Every voice counts, doesn't have to be heard through a march, just putting your name down helps. Realistically, a bunch of people marching won't accomplish much. It's up to the leaders. We need unprecedented action to come out of these talks. Unfortunately, odds are nothing bold enough to seriously address our problems will come out of the talks.
173. MahFL
Quoting 32. Famoguy1234:

Will The El Nino Increase the tornado risk over the winter?

Also, I've heard rumors that it will be colder in the south. Are these true and if not, why?


Tornado risk might be higher due to the warmer temps.
In a typical El Nino it is usually cooler in the SE and wetter. Some indications thought that this El Nino's effects might not be typical.
Quoting 167. GTstormChaserCaleb:

History Channel - Modern Marvels - Renewable Energy Learn more about photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, bio-diesel fuel, and geothermal energy.

This is the way to go, in fact we are bringing back some of the old ideas like bio-diesel fuel. Right now as I see it, renewable energy will become the top producing source of energy and oil and natural gas will become 2nd and 3rd, this will become good news in preserving those resources and helping to curb C02 and other GHG emissions that are responsible for the increase in Global temperatures. In my Bart Scott voice, "Can't Wait!"
Where does ethanol fit into the equation? It sure does wreak havoc on my small engines.
Quoting 141. Grothar:


Something spinning with some convection in that area near Panama and North west Columbia, I know models aren't saying much, but....check it out,,is there....
That would be none..

Got it..
178. vis0

Quoting 140. Grothar:




Every 65 million years I have to go through this. It's getting old.


BTW those are not the methane bubbles ColoradoBob1 types of.
Quoting 167. GTstormChaserCaleb:

History Channel - Modern Marvels - Renewable Energy Learn more about photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, bio-diesel fuel, and geothermal energy.

This is the way to go, in fact we are bringing back some of the old ideas like bio-diesel fuel. Right now as I see it, renewable energy will become the top producing source of energy and oil and natural gas will become 2nd and 3rd, this will become good news in preserving those resources and helping to curb C02 and other GHG emissions that are responsible for the increase in Global temperatures. In my Bart Scott voice, "Can't Wait!"
Biodiesel shows both promise and problems. It's a great alternative to using petroleum for fuel when high compression diesels can use different forms of fuel like biodiesel. The problems that have to be worked out is the wide variation in quality of biodiesel, the increased CO and CO2 emissions from engines using biodiesel, and increased mechanical problems and engine wear. My BIL, the farmer, grows soybeans, and he's trying to convert all his equipment to biodiesel, since he can swap some of his crop for fuel. So far, the path has not been smooth.
Quoting 174. Kenfa03:

Where does ethanol fit into the equation? It sure does wreak havoc on my small engines.
Use vegetable oil or a battery powered lawn mower that can be plugged into a source that harvests its energy from solar panels.

Vegetable Oil Vapor Carburetor, using vegetable oil waste. Link
Quoting 175. HuracanTaino:

Something spinning with some convection in that area near Panama and North west Columbia, I know models aren't saying much, but....check it out,,is there....
It's part of a tropical wave that's going to end up in the Pacific and probably become another tropical cyclone there.
Quoting 168. knightwarrior41:

nice to see that we south Floridians will enjoy a taste of the fall by the upcoming week.i say it was about time.i just hope that it does not rain or get cloudy during those days


Now you are getting greedy,k warrior. Let's just be thankful that at least some of the cool weather will reach us. ;-]
Quoting 165. washingtonian115:

Miami NWS Disco Disco you say? Must always look like this in the office

More greens and yellows, though ... that pink and purple is too girly ....
Quoting 172. MAweatherboy1:


Well, given the hassle, expense, etc. in making such a trip, I'd wager few. By your logic us making that trip would be a waste of jet fuel which would make us hypocrites for going. FWIW, I've signed a petition as I'm sure others here have urging action by the world leaders there. Every voice counts, doesn't have to be heard through a march, just putting your name down helps. Realistically, a bunch of people marching won't accomplish much. It's up to the leaders. We need unprecedented action to come out of these talks. Unfortunately, odds are nothing bold enough to seriously address our problems will come out of the talks.


Wow..a march won't help..Dr. King was wasting his time I guess..

so you think a petition is better than people visually seeing MANY people uniting in a joint cause..I can tell you I went to the Million Man March that was just held recently in Washington..When I believe in a cause I try to represent in person..

I agree its a waste of jet fuel to have a climate change discussion in person and not skype or teleconference, it is hypocritical..When it was in NY though and not in France why didn't you go? You in Mass..did you sign a petition then?
Quoting 183. Kenfa03:

You trying to get banned?


either way it's the worst attempt at a 'gotcha' i've seen in a long time. the russian judge gives it a 2.5.
Quoting 159. ncstorm:

When NY had their climate change march I only remembered Astro that went..none of the other regular WU keyboard warriors here went..

so how many of yall are going to the France climate change march?

I can't swim that far, and if I fly I'll be a hypocrite, no? ;-)
Quoting 180. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Use vegetable oil or a battery powered lawn mower that can be plugged into a source that harvests its energy from solar panels.

Vegetable Oil Vapor Carburetor, using vegetable oil waste. Link
Did you notice he never actually cut any grass? It's an interesting idea, but not real practical for your average homeowner.
Quoting 159. ncstorm:

When NY had their climate change march I only remembered Astro that went..none of the other regular WU keyboard warriors here went..

so how many of yall are going to the France climate change march?

I will be there in spirit
that will be one


Humma-da-humma-da-humma

Quoting 174. Kenfa03:

Where does ethanol fit into the equation? It sure does wreak havoc on my small engines.
What state do you live in? Most states still allow the sale of non-ethanol mix gasoline, and I use it in my small engines. Older or higher compression engines have known problems with E10 gasohol. In general, gasohol is a dead end. It requires more energy to produce the feedstock than it converts to useable energy in an engine, reduces the number of food crop acres, and is only economically viable as long as the government continues to subsidize farmers and gasohol producers.
2 tornadoes strike Argentina today, also had intense large hail storm in Cordoba Province. Really impressive. Will affect Uruguay tomorrow morning and Rio Grande do Sul state (Brazil) around afternoon. Models are showing a area of low pressure with 992 mbar over us, is really worrying.
We expect an impressive Severe Weather Outbreak tomorrow, the first widespread wave of severe weather in the region since October 14th.

Quoting 189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I will be there in spirit
that will be one
Since the real climate change march has apparently been cancelled, I'll be following the virtual march on twitter, or instagram, or something...
Quoting 171. ncstorm:

That would be none..

Got it..


Oh you sure built that straw man big and tall so you could burn us all.
Quoting 192. sar2401:

What state do you live in? Most states still allow the sale of non-ethanol mix gasoline, and I use it in my small engines. Older or higher compression engines have known problems with E10 gasohol. In general, gasohol is a dead end. It requires more energy to produce the feedstock than it converts to useable energy in an engine, reduces the number of food crop acres, and is only economically viable as long as the government continues to subsidize farmers and gasohol producers.
Texas. Recenty started using trufuel. So far everything starts but it is expensive.
Quoting 111. Kenfa03:

Anchorage tied a record low today.

One of the very few places that did.

Period ........................High Max .... High Min ........... Low Max ......... Low Min
Last 7 Days ...................... 119 .............. 167 ..................... 10 ..................... 11
Last 30 Days ................. 1442 ........... 2434 .................. 116 .................... 73

Link
Quoting 75. Misanthroptimist:


Everything you posted is utterly reasonable. OTOH, had our discussion taken place in 2010, it's likely neither of us would guess that ASI would plunge the way it did in 2012. So, while I agree that it's unlikely that there will be an "ice-free" day in the Arctic in 2017, I don't think it can be ruled out with much actual confidence.


Statistically speaking, it would be an outlier. But we seem to be having more of those as of late. :P

Regardless, you are correct. The "best" we have is the current long therm trend. We don't have enough actual data coverage (or research for that matter) about that arctic make any short term claims one way or the other, especially due to to disproportionate effect of weather and the times it occurs.

Yet another example of how it's easier to follow averages than predict individual data points. :)
Sorry, GT, going to a March is the only way to combat climate change and if you don't you're a hypocrite. Didn't ya get the memo?
Quoting 197. Misanthroptimist:


One of the very few places that did.

Period ........................High Max .... High Min ........... Low Max ......... Low Min
Last 7 Days ...................... 119 .............. 167 ..................... 10 ..................... 11
Last 30 Days ................. 1442 ........... 2434 .................. 116 .................... 73

Link
Don't mind him he is just outside picking cherries.
Quoting 200. Naga5000:

Sorry, GT, going to a March is the only way to combat climate change and if you don't you're a hypocrite. Didn't ya get the memo?

But if you go, you'll have to burn FFs, so you'll still be a hypocrite. Looks like we're caught!

Shut.

Down.

Everything!
LOL, I just like to sit back and laugh at all the conspiracy theorists and climate change denialists that try to come on here. While, your out their living your delusional worldview, lots of things are already being done to combat the issues on climate change. 1, 2, 3 people who try to come on here and give baseless reasons, unscientifically and just based on opinion won't change what is being done. You can keep trying though, but it won't matter. When your house gets inundated by sea level rise and it's already happening to places like the Maldives where residents have had to flee their homes, then you can thank me later.
Quoting 192. sar2401:

What state do you live in? Most states still allow the sale of non-ethanol mix gasoline, and I use it in my small engines. Older or higher compression engines have known problems with E10 gasohol. In general, gasohol is a dead end. It requires more energy to produce the feedstock than it converts to useable energy in an engine, reduces the number of food crop acres, and is only economically viable as long as the government continues to subsidize farmers and gasohol producers.


In Maryland almost nobody sells it. This ticks me off too! And you are right, small 2 cycle engines should not use it if you are going to leave the fuel in the tank longer than two weeks. Problem with other engines also but small two cycles are the worst.
Quoting 200. Naga5000:

Sorry, GT, going to a March is the only way to combat climate change and if you don't you're a hypocrite. Didn't ya get the memo?


well no one said that so lets not make up things to counter a disagreement..

Since you didnt go to NY and you not going to France, will you be going to any march in the future or is your intent to just fight the fight here on a weather blog all day?..

if you can't lead by example how do you expect others to follow?..





I will never understand why some people get their jollies from deliberately starting arguments on the internet.

Anyway, here's an unusually early SPac invest, 93P. Looks to be getting sheared apart at the moment.

No one here is going to France because there's no Freedom Fries over there.
212. beell
Quoting 161. ACSeattle:


According to Google Maps, that corner of Texas is at an elevation of between 4600 and 4700 ft.


I didn't double-check you but that sounds about right (i trust ya'!).

And just to be clear...this was a harmless weather post with no veiled agenda attempting to confirm or deny the reality of AGW. Only a poor attempt at Texas humor by the obvious(?) juxtaposition of the size of Texas versus the small areal coverage of the snowfall within our man-made borders.

If this disclaimer does not apply to you...a thousand pardons! But I bet, it applies to someone, somewhere, lol!
Thanks.
:)))

Quoting 199. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hi, Ms. Drama Queen. In his defense he is probably in school at the time or working and couldn't get time off. A march may wake up a certain set of people in the areas that the march is taking place, which is good it shows people getting out and fighting for a cause, but at the end of the day it's up to each individual to take action by adapting to a different lifestyle if we want to see changes. If we keep on keeping on the problem will only continue to get worst. The good news is I see energy companies are already making the changes, and I suggest you do to if you want to see your energy bill go down. I'll give you an example Duke Energy headquartered in your own backyard has invested more than $3 billion dollars in wind and solar power projects since 2007. They now own and operate more than 1600 Megawatts of wind power and 100 Megawatts of solar power. Link
NRG did the same. Stock price hit yearly low today.
Quoting 209. TimSoCal:

I will never understand why some people get their jollies from deliberately starting arguments on the internet.

Anyway, here's an unusually early SPac invest, 93P. Looks to be getting sheared apart at the moment.


Simple, they live miserable lives and have nothing else better to do. I'm not going to give into it either, since the old saying is misery loves company.
TIA hit another record high today:

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................. .................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 89R 231 PM 88

And with that some thunderstorms have popped up out ahead of the main line associated with a cold front.

Me right now...
Quoting 209. TimSoCal:

I will never understand why some people get their jollies from deliberately starting arguments on the internet.

Anyway, here's an unusually early SPac invest, 93P. Looks to be getting sheared apart at the moment.



Whether or not this march goes on, how Paris is responding with love against the Great Evil of our time is commendable. Most of the world stands with France. AGW, the Great Issue of our time is stood up for by those who speak the truth to their friends, families, and people they meet. It's done by marching, going to school for climate science, and net working with like minded seekers of truth. Everyone finds their own path to standing up for what they believe in. No one action makes or breaks one's stance. I think we all know it's much larger than that.
Yes, I live a miserable life..I'm married, in love and have beautiful children with a great job that pays well..

The horror..

I'll take my leave..you guys continue discussing the perils of climate change on your computers..

Pasadena, California is joining in on the fun.
Quoting 216. ncstorm:



I'm not advocating climate change so why would I go? I did though provided an example of a cause I was in person for earlier..you see when I believe in something dire that will affect one's life I think its imperative to physically show my commitment especially when its organized and masses are needed to show the public that people are uniting to combat a problem..

by the way you didn't dish anything but ethanol..I see you have gotten upset over my "questioning" and I surely don't want to draw a ban..I'm sure I'm being flagged into oblivion..

Who says I'm upset, I'm still laughing over here since your only defense is why isn't anyone else on this blog going to the march in France? I went to the AMS Conference in 2014, which was held in Atlanta and one of the sessions, which featured a panel was on the topic of climate change. I'm also currently taking a class in climate change right now. I must ask have you ever taken a class in climate change or environmental science in your life?
Quoting 221. ncstorm:

Yes, I live a miserable life..I'm married, in love and have beautiful children with a great job that pays well..

The horror..

I'll take my leave..you guys continue discussing the perils of climate change on your computers..



No you won't, watch you'll come back and respond.
Quoting 108. CosmicEvents:


.
.
.
.
.
You're being naive Xyrus. I'm not talking conspiracy theory here or villifying the insurance corporations. They're doing what they're supposed to do...make as much money as possible.


It's not being naive. They have legal obligations that prevent them from bilking people (at least in obvious fashion). The average profit margin for insurance companies in general is around 5%. If, as you propose, they are making exorbitant charges then it would certainly show in their bottom lines, and it isn't.

I don't know where you live so I don't know what the demographics are, how the insurance company(s) have regionalized the market, etc. but all of these are important factors. If you live in a low home ownership region that just so happens to have a high risk area lumped into it, then the insurance company has to charge higher rates to cover costs. It has little to do with profit. If they can't come up with the cash to cover their legal obligations for an area, then they can't legally cover that area.

My whole thought was pretty much the same thought I expressed on Dr. Rood's blog a few weeks ago...the "Risky Business" blog. He thought I had some good insight, sorry that you don't.


It has nothing to do with whether or not I think you have/had good insights. My problem is that there is a lack of context. Everyone complains about insurance. I, personally, hate insurance and insurance companies. But that doesn't mean there isn't a method to their madness. Everyone is quick to criticize premiums, but gloss over legitimate reasons why those premiums increased. "My flood insurance quadrupled over the past 10 years! This is BS!". Well, if half your town is being inundated by 100 year floods every other year, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what's going to happen to the general rates in the area. It doesn't matter that you live 10 miles away up on a hillside somewhere. If you're in the same insurance region, everyone in that region is going to feel it.

You can always make you're case to your insurance company. If they're a decent company they may send someone out to survey your property and adjust your rate accordingly. I've done this myself and received a rate reduction.

The only thing new I added here was the exact amount my home insurance has gone up(17k) over the last 5 years. I should have been more specific, that rise is 100% the windstorm part of the homeowners insurance. I'm also not in a surge zone or flood zone. I don't believe there's been a single claim for hurricane damage in the last 10 years in the area within 50(probably more like 500) miles of me in all directions. For justification the insurance and re-insurance companies have used those studies that hypothesized more and more, here.


Is that what they're rally doing or is that just speculation? One way to quickly check is to look at your insurance company's 10-K statements. I recommend that everyone do this anyway as it can be quite eye opening. If what you claim is true and they're using these studies to cash in, then you should be see a noticeable spike upwards in net profit. If you don't see that, then the ratio between premiums and payouts hasn't really changed dramatically. Payouts rose, which means the risk analysis done by the insurance company was more or less on target.

They expanded their 1 in 20 year, 50 year, 100 year areas. Maybe they'll be right, but there really is no science that so far that has been able to PROVE the theories of more extreme events here. It's the intersection of a long-term problem(AGW) with the short-term consequences.


There have been an increasing number on this subject actually, and none of them have been very encouraging. But that's another topic.

Regardless, if an insurance company were using 20 and 50 year projections for rates NOW, the profit margins would be pretty damn telling an would be quite apparent in their 10-K statements. It's more likely you're just getting lumped in with a larger high risk group and suffering the consequences. A simple call and survey may be all it takes to remedy that, but an insurance company isn't going to proactively do that for you.
Quoting 187. Misanthroptimist:


I can't swim that far, and if I fly I'll be a hypocrite, no? ;-)
Just so.

But of course there are lots of simultaneous local marches being coordinated.

Had NCstorm not been pithed as a consequence of too many hours spent staring into Art Pope's eyes, he'd have let google show him that these local events and marches are becoming ubiquitous, and by no means just for the COP 21 meeting.


I would offer this reply to every denier on the web –

I’m your Huckleberry.
Quoting 223. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Who says I'm upset, I'm still laughing over here since your only defense is why isn't anyone else on this blog going to the march in France? I went to the AMS Conference in 2014, which was held in Atlanta and one of the sessions, which featured a panel was on the topic of climate change. I'm also currently taking a class in climate change right now. I must ask have you ever taken a class in climate change or environmental science in your life?


Those are pretty good, and you can always hang out afterwards and pepper them with questions (unless they have a another session to go to).

Unfortunately I missed out on that session at the 2015 AMS conference. I had two oral presentations to give (WRN and solar forecasting). And I had to do booth duty. Yay. :P

Quoting 207. ncstorm:



well no one said that so lets not make up things to counter a disagreement..

Since you didnt go to NY and you not going to France, will you be going to any march in the future or is your intent to just fight the fight here on a weather blog all day?..

if you can't lead by example how do you expect others to follow?..








Sorry, I speak at conferences and write papers about how climate change denial is constructed. I'll be sure to feel bad about not going to a March because you demand it of my leadership. I honestly cannot roll my eyes any harder.
pls move along
350.org (the one I linked) and several other organizations working on climate issues in the U.S. are making it very easy for people to set up their own events, given that the "official" ones are in larger cities that for many will still mean hours of travel to attend. Climate Mobilization is another, offering a handy Action Guide.

So roll your own!
Quoting 224. pingon:


No you won't, watch you'll come back and respond.

Nailed it! ;^D

That's good forecasting.
the blog was beginning to fall in an abyss I will ask again pls move along
hehehe
as for nature's targets on anything that's out of my hands

and my opinion has no affect what so ever
Nice wave east of the islands.

Wow. Tapping moisture from the EPAC all the way to northern Canada.



Can you say meridional heat transport?
Central Atlantic has some similar action going on.

Quoting 144. sar2401:

You need to read that article again. The Arkstorm was invented by the USGS to use as part of their Multihazards Demonstration Project for a disaster planning scenario by various emergency responder departments in California. It was never meant to be used as a probable, or even likely, scenario for a real Arkstorm. The results of the hypothetical Arkstorm, while similar in some ways to the 1861-62 floods, would be many times worse, since the assumption was for a 500-1000 year event that would completely overwhelm all the flood defenses of California. The Arkstorm scenario was never meant to be released to the public but, now that it has, it has attained kind of mythological place in people's thinking. A big storm like the 1861-62 event would cause a lot of damage and losses, but what happened then was before there were any flood defenses in place. You'd also need to see almost a winter's worth of snow in the Sierra by Christmas, in addition to the rain, to produce another 1861-62 event. If this El Nino produces the kinds of rains we saw in 1982-83, there will be extensive flooding, just as there was then, but a repeat of the 1861-62 results is not likely.


This is an impossible scenario given an ELECTRICAL complexity. The 1861-2 event was associated with massive river changes to the Sacramento river system either from mining or deforestation. SSTs off the California coast are extremely warm and methane hydrates have been reported melting off the coast of Oregon and Washington. Only looking at SSTs with knowing the mechanism of coupling is the hallmark of the errors in the climate change debate by looking only at CO2 as a green house gas without looking at CO2 as an electrical element in cloud behaviors.

BTW if the Electrical Engineer is around--more precisely it's about van der Waal behaviors of super cooled water with acids in them in DC and AC fields--how cloud microphysics change freeze rates.

Biggest snowfall on record is near here Mt Shasta. Record came right after the Trinity Dam was built impacting sedimentation/flow of the Trinity and then carbonation levels off shore.

The problem with suggesting a mega flood is warmer SSTs hold less carbonation, so there isn't going to be the cloud enhancement.

It's interesting to me btw 21e has formed and is intensifying with lighting in the CONUS--again associated with methane hydrate ecology changing dams on the rio grand de Santiago in SW Mexico: http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_i n_Americas_BIG.gif
Quoting 239. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the blog was beginning to fall in an abyss I will ask again pls move along


...when you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you.

Fredrick Nietsche
Neapolitan is completely correct. France does have a first rank intelligence system. And France has 9,500 troops deployed in Africa to fight terrorism, as well as 1,800 more in southwest Asia.

Overseas French troop deployments, official French government page in English. Not as detailed or up to date as the French language pages, but useful nonetheless. Smaller operations not listed separately.
Quoting 241. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as for nature's targets on anything that's out of my hands

and my opinion has no affect what so ever


Nature doesn't give a rat's fuzzy butt what we think.
Quoting 229. Naga5000:



Sorry, I speak at conferences and write papers about how climate change denial is constructed. I'll be sure to feel bad about not going to a March because you demand it of my leadership. I honestly cannot roll my eyes any harder.


And if you traveled to France by anything other than sailing ship or a Viking longship, you'd still be a hypocrite to some.
The new global warming motto:

Citius, Altius, Fortius
Quoting 206. georgevandenberghe:



In Maryland almost nobody sells it. This ticks me off too! And you are right, small 2 cycle engines should not use it if you are going to leave the fuel in the tank longer than two weeks. Problem with other engines also but small two cycles are the worst.



Take a look at this site - http://pure-gas.org. To get ethanol free you have to get west of the Blue Ridge to get out of the area covered by the Capital Clean Air board (paraphrase). Or a marina.
I went poking into the caves at Altamira, Spain . All of this is over 37,000 year old -

He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And when you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you.

Beyond Good and Evil, Aphorism 146
Quoting 209. TimSoCal:

I will never understand why some people get their jollies from deliberately starting arguments on the internet.

Anyway, here's an unusually early SPac invest, 93P. Looks to be getting sheared apart at the moment.




My hypothesis is that people who deliberately start arguments on the internet don't have any important goals or much of an interesting life in general. It's like those kids in high school who would harass kids and commit crimes simply because they had too much idle time as a result of getting paid allowance and skipping school.
SSTs around 21E are on fire BUT where the storm is -- they are not. Again the coupling? See? Patricia roils the oceans and brings up nutrient rich colder oceans, which then is better able to recarbonate and start the elements of the food chain--for microbial life to further increase carbonation locally. An echo storm is a form of a feedback, and award if you will for favorable conditions that supported a carbonation event before it. BUT the problem is dams are not true life that a feedback has evolved to. They trap soon but this time of year would be releasing . . . if I am right the drought will continue in California unabated. So we can test this.

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CT7ul9WUwAAwdgk .mp4
Quoting 256. ColoradoBob1:

I went poking into the caves at Altamira, Spain . All of this is over 37,000 year old -




No, they are only 6000 years old :)
Quoting 256. ColoradoBob1:

I went poking into the caves at Altamira, Spain . All of this is over 37,000 year old -




Quoting 257. bappit:

He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And when you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you.

Beyond Good and Evil, Aphorism 146

Wer mit Ungeheuern kampft, mag zusehen, dass er nicht dabei zum Ungeheuer wird.
The site is sick .
The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently.

The Dawn, Sec. 297.
The cave at Altamira, Spain –

The modern scientific counterpart to belief in God is the belief in the universe as an organism: this disgusts me. This is to make what is quite rare and extremely derivative, the organic, which we perceive only on the surface of the earth, into something essential, universal, and eternal! This is still an anthropomorphizing of nature!

Nietzche for Wundergrounders, volume two
Quoting 263. BaltimoreBrian:


Wer mit Ungeheuern kampft, mag zusehen, dass er nicht dabei zum Ungeheuer wird.



But Nietzsche said it with more emphasis.
Quoting 255. FarmerKarl:



Take a look at this site - http://pure-gas.org. To get ethanol free you have to get west of the Blue Ridge to get out of the area covered by the Capital Clean Air board (paraphrase). Or a marina.
Or an airport. So far, no US registered or certified aircraft is allowed to use gasohol of any concentration. Most airport gas truck guys I've seen know why you need it and don't mind filling a five gallon can.

The cave at Altamira, Spain –

Is Nietzche peachy? :)
Quoting 268. Grothar:

But Nietzsche said it with more emphasis.
I wish wunderground would allow posting letters with accents. I should have put an exclamation point on the quote.
Quoting 261. Jedkins01:
No, they are only 6000 years old :)
Wikipedia:

"Scientists continue to evaluate the age of the cave art at Altamira. In 2008, researchers using uranium-thorium dating found that the paintings were completed over a period of up to 20,000 years rather than during a comparatively brief period.[4] In 2012, further uranium-thorium dating research was published supporting an older age for portions of the art, including one claviform image at 35,600 years old.[5]"

I guess it depends on which painting.
Here is the link to methane hydrates melting along the Washington and Oregon coasts. So if it's about DE carbonation with surface lows, concentrating an electrical forcing in clouds, and methane from these hydrates are metabolized to carbonation, then you would expect that there would be interesting observational behaviors from the Aleutian low and Pacific high that would result, in other words climate or drought behaviors you could observe. What California has along the coast, unlike what occurred in 1997-8, are anomaly hot SSTs along the coast. It is true there were Nino SSTs for 1997-8 and like now, but the question is coupling to weather we get in California 1,000 miles away--how do the atmospheric rivers behave, how does, again, the RRR and Aleutian behave:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode /methane-plumes-bubbling-along-u-s-northwest-coast /
Quoting 271. BaltimoreBrian:
Is Nietzche peachy? :)
Sometimes. Not even everything by Led Zeppelin is worth listenng to.

Edit: Don't tell Patrap!
Quoting 250. BaltimoreBrian:

Neapolitan is completely correct. France does have a first rank intelligence system. And France has 9,500 troops deployed in Africa to fight terrorism, as well as 1,800 more in southwest Asia.

Overseas French troop deployments, official French government page in English. Not as detailed or up to date as the French language pages, but useful nonetheless. Smaller operations not listed separately.
I'd certainly not have a lot of faith in a first rank intelligence service that had allowed five Islamist terrorist attacks in the last eleven months. Overseas troop deployments don't do a lot of good if you can't prevent attacks on your own soil. As you probably know, it's what doesn't happen that makes intelligence good, not what does.
bappit, I think Jedkins was joking about creationists with his comment including 6,000 years old.
Quoting 267. bappit:

The modern scientific counterpart to belief in God is the belief in the universe as an organism: this disgusts me. This is to make what is quite rare and extremely derivative, the organic, which we perceive only on the surface of the earth, into something essential, universal, and eternal! This is still an anthropomorphizing of nature!

Nietzche for Wundergrounders, volume two


It might be. It also can be a way that weather and climate actually can be understood and modeled, scientifically.
Notice the swirl in the central Atlantic.

Quoting 277. BaltimoreBrian:
bappit, I think Jedkins was joking about creationists with his comment including 6,000 years old.
Thankyou.
281. beell
Quoting 270. ColoradoBob1:


The cave at Altamira, Spain –




The Flood Gates at Buffalo Bayou, Houston, TX.





Quoting 278. MichaelDoran:
It might be. It also can be a way that weather and climate actually can be understood and modeled, scientifically.
Well, we know the kind of mystical viewpoint you are coming from. I never found mysticism interesting except as part of high art.
Quoting 272. BaltimoreBrian:

I wish wunderground would allow posting letters with accents. I should have put an exclamation point on the quote.


and you forgot the umlaut on kämpft
The umlauts won't stay on when I post them. It's not fair! *wails*
Quoting 276. sar2401:
I'd certainly not have a lot of faith in a first rank intelligence service that had allowed five Islamist terrorist attacks in the last eleven months. Overseas troop deployments don't do a lot of good if you can't prevent attacks on your own soil. As you probably know, it's what doesn't happen that makes intelligence good, not what does.
French society has marginalized muslim communities. How that came to be may be debated, but they exist. They are fertile ground for indoctrinating people into extremist views. Short of it is that you are in no position to judge.
273. bappit

They were in cave , deep under ground , long before man in invented the Aztecs, Isis, or Jesus , or the Greek myths .

I only post this , because man has at this idea for a very long time. I bow to your new research .
I wonder what the 500 mb temps are in Grothar's central Atlantic swirl.
Quoting 282. bappit:

Well, we know the kind of mystical viewpoint you are coming from. I never found mysticism interesting except as part of high art.


I am not a mystic.

Here is an interesting issue from the academic community. In the 1980s gaia was rejected universally, such as Lovelocks Daisyland, because CO2 as a GHG was too slow a mechanism to create meaningful biological feedbacks. It takes for instance 600 years from atmospheric CO2 to be reduced reasonably according to what I have read.

BUT CO2 as an electrical feedback locally is very fast. The problem is there is evidence of design all around--and if in fact there is a fast feedback available, than the design aspects become harder to refute.

I would agree that gaia faced withering academic criticism in the 80s but what if the mechanism is wrong?

My background is math and probability. There is a huge problem in microbiology in probability math regarding implausible complexity. Huge. In other words the Miller experiments for instance come up with both handed molecules whereas life has handed molecules--by that experiment result handedness can't come about by random chance. This isn't to suggest that God or some mystical mechanism created the life with handedness, but rather there is a probabilistic mystery which suggests a process by which design, such as handedness, arouse, that can be explained reasonably and with probability.
Quoting 281. beell:



The Flood Gates at Buffalo Bayou, Houston, TX.






Dang, somewhere between 20,000 and 39,500 years of progress (depending on which study you believe) has brought us to the flood gates. Amazing!

273. bappit

There's more than one cave in Altamira,

Quoting 284. BaltimoreBrian:

The umlauts won't stay on when I post them. It's not fair! *wails*

Don't fret BB. They just figured out the plus button, the umlaut fix will be ready by next Spring!
Quoting 277. BaltimoreBrian:

bappit, I think Jedkins was joking about creationists with his comment including 6,000 years old.


Yet another day where I can't tell my roommate what happened on the blog today. I got a notification from my email saying that Scientific American's Evolution section was now available, and he asked me what the beep was and I told him and then I could hear him mumbling under his breath about evolution and how Earth is only 6K years old.

Sigh.
What a wonderful fruit bowl . Of the best comments.

Back to the cave -





Quoting 293. Astrometeor:



Yet another day where I can't tell my roommate what happened on the blog today. I got a notification from my email saying that Scientific American's Evolution section was now available, and he asked me what the beep was and I told him and then I could hear him mumbling under his breath about evolution and how Earth is only 6K years old.

Sigh.



Just tell him you know someone who is much older than that!!!!
Back to the cave -

Quoting 289. MichaelDoran:

I am not a mystic

gaia...Lovelock...Daisyland...etc...

But you're not a mystic then. At least this explains how you arrive at some of your unique views.

P.S. It was Daisyworld, not Daisyland, although Daisyworld was made up by Lovelock too.
Back to the cave -

Quoting 293. Astrometeor:



Yet another day where I can't tell my roommate what happened on the blog today. I got a notification from my email saying that Scientific American's Evolution section was now available, and he asked me what the beep was and I told him and then I could hear him mumbling under his breath about evolution and how Earth is only 6K years old.

Sigh.
You dope! You should have told him was an email from your mom asking you to get your roommate to help you test one of her new recipes in the college galley. That would have shut him up fast. :-)
Printers on Ice--works printed on the River Thames during frost fairs from the 17th to the 19th centuries. Click any image to expand.



There may you also this hard Frosty Winter,
See on the Rocky Ice a Working PRINTER,
Who hopes by his own Art to reap some gain,
Which he perchance does think he may obtain. (February 1684)





1740





February 1814. "For such a year as this is seldom seen" And hasn't been seen since.

Quoting 277. BaltimoreBrian:

bappit, I think Jedkins was joking about creationists with his comment including 6,000 years old.


I do believe in a created Universe, just not a 6000 year old one :)

If one believes in God, it really doesn't make sense to be so apposed to scientific discovery, which to me is simply uncovering the mystery of how things are designed and made.


Quoting 295. Grothar:




Just tell him you know someone who is much older than that!!!!


I was thinking the same, I suppose if you're much older than the Earth, that makes you an ancient alien?

The history channel could make you famous, they have that crazy guy with crazy hair who would love to learn about you.
If you don't know the history of man in caves, all over the Earth. Then you are falling behind.

The giant search tool is grinding our history to powder every day.
Quoting 301. Jedkins01:



I do believe in a created Universe, just not a 6000 year old one :)

If one believes in God, it really doesn't make sense to be so apposed to scientific discovery, which to me is simply uncovering the mystery of how things are designed and made.





Yeah, I don't get the 6000 year thing. That was made up at the time with their best guess. Now that we know better, you would expect people to revise their thoughts. That's like ignoring the weatherman saying it's 20 outside at the airport in Philly, and you keep thinking that because it was 80 in Tampa, then it will be 80 still in Philly. >.<
Quoting 302. Jedkins01:



I was thinking the same, I suppose if you're much older than the Earth, that makes you an ancient alien?

The history channel could make you famous, they have that crazy guy with crazy hair who would love to learn about you.


Boom.

 photo tickld_meme_zpsbcypnp0q.png
300. BaltimoreBrian
4:26 AM GMT on November 19, 2015

Printers on Ice--works printed on the River Thames during frost fairs from the 17th to the 19th centuries. Click any image to expand.

Those days are gone forever , over a long time ago .

Steely Dan

Pretzel Logic

Link
Quoting 303. ColoradoBob1:

If you don't know the history of man in caves, all over the Earth. Then you are falling behind.

The giant search tool is grinding our history to powder every day.
knowledge is the key reading that knowledge is fundamental too achieving our realization of our self origins and unlocking the gates of greatness and work together as one species too achieve the leaping point into the cosmos and unlimited capablities
Quoting 225. Xyrus2000:



It's not being naive. They have legal obligations that prevent them from bilking people (at least in obvious fashion). The average profit margin for insurance companies in general is around 5%. If, as you propose, they are making exorbitant charges then it would certainly show in their bottom lines, and it isn't.

I don't know where you live so I don't know what the demographics are, how the insurance company(s) have regionalized the market, etc. but all of these are important factors. If you live in a low home ownership region that just so happens to have a high risk area lumped into it, then the insurance company has to charge higher rates to cover costs. It has little to do with profit. If they can't come up with the cash to cover their legal obligations for an area, then they can't legally cover that area.



It has nothing to do with whether or not I think you have/had good insights. My problem is that there is a lack of context. Everyone complains about insurance. I, personally, hate insurance and insurance companies. But that doesn't mean there isn't a method to their madness. Everyone is quick to criticize premiums, but gloss over legitimate reasons why those premiums increased. "My flood insurance quadrupled over the past 10 years! This is BS!". Well, if half your town is being inundated by 100 year floods every other year, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what's going to happen to the general rates in the area. It doesn't matter that you live 10 miles away up on a hillside somewhere. If you're in the same insurance region, everyone in that region is going to feel it.

You can always make you're case to your insurance company. If they're a decent company they may send someone out to survey your property and adjust your rate accordingly. I've done this myself and received a rate reduction.



Is that what they're rally doing or is that just speculation? One way to quickly check is to look at your insurance company's 10-K statements. I recommend that everyone do this anyway as it can be quite eye opening. If what you claim is true and they're using these studies to cash in, then you should be see a noticeable spike upwards in net profit. If you don't see that, then the ratio between premiums and payouts hasn't really changed dramatically. Payouts rose, which means the risk analysis done by the insurance company was more or less on target.



There have been an increasing number on this subject actually, and none of them have been very encouraging. But that's another topic.

Regardless, if an insurance company were using 20 and 50 year projections for rates NOW, the profit margins would be pretty damn telling an would be quite apparent in their 10-K statements. It's more likely you're just getting lumped in with a larger high risk group and suffering the consequences. A simple call and survey may be all it takes to remedy that, but an insurance company isn't going to proactively do that for you.

You keep coming back to the point that if they were doing something wrong it would be reflected in their bottom line profits. That's an invalid point in counterpoint to my basic thought that home premiums are higher than they should be for many based on the science of "extreme theory" . I wouldn't waste the blogs time on something that was personal....I'm not anywhere near any kind of "special situation" as you describe. What I'm going through is generally happening to about 20 million homeowners in the SE US and along the GOM who live away from a surge zone area but still generally 10-200 miles from the water..
.
The southeast United States is just one area in the world. Excess profits there can be offset by losses in other areas of the world with somewhat similar high value insured risk exposure...NE US, Western Europe, SE Asia(some areas), Japan, US west coast, etc. Stick to climate science, you're out of your league in corporate finance science. Some of these areas might be underpaying...we'll know in 100 years how much they pay out and their/gain loss in each area.
.
.
While we wait 100 years....what's the real problem with thinking that their might be a temporary error in their risk analysis now? The re-insurance market will adjust itself and correct the errors. The insurance companies dealing with consumers will likely be swift to keep pace with any increased re-insurance cost but slower to reduce the premiums in areas where re-insurance costs decrease. imo
This is in the caves of Almeria as well

I just posted the same link on Wordpress, the images are clear. I pasted over 5 here tonight and I see blanks.

Did anyone see my posts ? They are cave paintings .
Those wanting to keep track of confirmed tornadoes this month can check out the Wikipedia page. The monthly count stands near 59, meaning we have already reached the average monthly activity (58) with 11 days to go. The departing storm system is responsible for 34 of these tornadoes, including an EF1 in California and three EF3s across the Central Plains.

But don't venture past this page. ;) I am one of the few editors on the severe weather side of things and have been too busy over the past few months to update things, so they are well outdated. I should be able to get these pages up to speed throughout the holidays.

Link
Test

Good work, Cody

Bob, make sure the addresses of the images don't have https in them. If they do, simply remove the s.
This great site that can display all things to all people,

Has just screwed the pooch.
Quoting 311. ColoradoBob1:

I just posted the same link on Wordpress, the images are clear. I pasted over 5 here tonight and I see blanks.

Did anyone see my posts ? They are cave paintings .

Only on posts 270, 294, 296.
Quoting 300. BaltimoreBrian:

Printers on Ice--works printed on the River Thames during frost fairs from the 17th to the 19th centuries. Click any image to expand.


Brian, I cannot get any of your images to expand w/a click. Is it my browser (G chrome)?
Quoting 312. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those wanting to keep track of confirmed tornadoes this month can check out the Wikipedia page. The monthly count stands near 59, meaning we have already reached the average monthly activity (58) with 11 days to go. The departing storm system is responsible for 34 of these tornadoes, including an EF1 in California and three EF3s across the Central Plains.

But don't venture past this page. ;) I am one of the few editors on the severe weather side of things and have been too busy over the past few months to update things, so they are well outdated. I should be able to get these pages up to speed throughout the holidays.

Link


Time to go everything that's wrong with the severe weather Wikipedia realm so I can spam Cody through WU Mail about it. ;)
oldnewmex, I'm afraid so. The images I post expand in firefox, but in other browsers are hit or miss.
Quoting 314. BaltimoreBrian:

Good work, Cody

Bob, make sure the addresses of the images don't have https in them. If they do, simply remove the s.

Many thanks, BB but one slipped by. And I didn't do a thing. And what kind of a world is WU if we we all have to remember little bs keys just to post.

It's like posting a video, no where , I mean no where , on the Whole site is a clear way to do it.
You have to know the dark hand shake to do it.

It the richest site on the web, bar none. But it still has has giant holes .

Go look for how to post a video, get back to me when you find it.
Quoting 306. Astrometeor:



Boom.

 photo tickld_meme_zpsbcypnp0q.png



Perfect.
Man we are getting a lot of rain, thought the original squall line was a decent amount as it was where we got 0.92 in about a half hour, we've had several more rounds since. Will be interesting to see what the event total is by morning.
WOW don't know what else to say.
Link
Just felt an earthquake for the first time. 4.7 in Oklahoma. Thought my roommate was shaking my bed, then heard all the commotion in the hallway. Crazy stuff.
Quoting 289. MichaelDoran:

My background is math and probability. There is a huge problem in microbiology in probability math regarding implausible complexity. Huge. In other words the Miller experiments for instance come up with both handed molecules whereas life has handed molecules--by that experiment result handedness can't come about by random chance.

That's very sloppy thinking on several counts. Miller's experiments can hardly be called an example of random chance since the parameters were closely chosen.

I also strongly suspect that your implausible complexity problem is the result of assuming "one try at a time" rather than the million/billions/trillions of tries that were occurring every second. It's not like there was only a few carbon atoms, a few hydrogen atoms, etc. There were 10^really big atoms with various conditions over the whole surface of the Earth.
Quoting 325. hurricanehunter27:

Just felt an earthquake for the first time. 4.7 in Oklahoma. Thought my roommate was shaking my bed, then heard all the commotion in the hallway. Crazy stuff.

Sounds...um, fun? Interesting?

The only eq that ever hit an area I lived was ~2.0-2.5. I slept through it. My son heard it and told me about it later.
NASA GISS global monthly temperature anomaly for October is just in - a jaw dropping 1.04 C above the 1951-80 average. This is the first time a monthly anomaly has exceeded 1 degree C. The previous record was 0.97 C in January 2007, and it's 0.14 C higher than the second highest monthly anomaly in 2015, March (0.90 C).

Link
interesting comments about this el nino by jb on yesterdays video
models are hinting at a LOW crossing florida,gulf to atlantic from the tail end of this front sunday......
GFS says a pacific storm crosses mexico into texas first week of December...................
334. MahFL
Here in Orange Park I had 1.61 in of rain yesterday.
Quoting 329. tampabaymatt:


If you look at the tip of the Mississippi delta it appears there is a little bit of perturbation in the front... Is a low forming there?
Quoting 301. Jedkins01:



I do believe in a created Universe, just not a 6000 year old one :)

If one believes in God, it really doesn't make sense to be so apposed to scientific discovery, which to me is simply uncovering the mystery of how things are designed and made.



Amen. Throughout my life I have heard atheist and agnostics say that the discovery of dinosaur bones prove that there is no God because they are not mentioned anywhere in the bible. There are many, many events that are not in the bible. Doesn't mean there is no God.
Expect a wet pattern across FL thru Sunday and some of these totals specifically across C FL could be quite high to day and then again Saturday & Sunday as a stationary front sets up overhead. We saw this across N FL a couple of weeks ago where Jacksonville got crushed with 11" of rain in spots. Not saying we get anything like that but I wouldn't be surprised if 3" to 5" occur as a 5 day total in many spots.



beginning of long range shows a strong recurving typhoon racing across the north pacific.
Quoting 325. hurricanehunter27:

Just felt an earthquake for the first time. 4.7 in Oklahoma. Thought my roommate was shaking my bed, then heard all the commotion in the hallway. Crazy stuff.


Are they fracking in your parts?...................................
Quoting 252. ColoradoBob1:



Nature doesn't give a rat's fuzzy butt what we think.
rotflmao
Quoting 334. MahFL:

Here in Orange Park I had 1.61 in of rain yesterday.


Picked up .27" yesterday @ my location but a friend of mine in Webster located in Sumter County to my west had nearly 3" last night.
Good Morning. A little bumpy for parts of the US yesterday between the winds in the NW and the frontal passage/low across the mid-section but things look quiet for today. Now just have to keep an eye on the models for the more wintery frontal lows to come between now an mid-December before the heavy duty stuff in January and February.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



Quoting 275. bappit:

Sometimes. Not even everything by Led Zeppelin is worth listenng to.

Edit: Don't tell Patrap!
Oh my! How could you? Even their worst is the best...
Quoting 340. weathermanwannabe:



Are they fracking in your parts?...................................


yes, and that is part of the cause. The deep injection of waste fracking fluids has slicked up previously unknown faults. The New Madrid fault crosses this area too. My friend and fellow Waterkeeper Earl Hatley, our Grand Riverkeeper has been working to stop the deep injection for years. He tells me that a HUGE disaster is just waiting to happen at the Cushing Oil Storage Facility (largest in WORLD). He says that NONE of the storage tanks were designed for earthquakes and that it is a real possibility that given a strong enough tremor, all of them could shake and breach at once.

more on that if you are interested; This is a PDF about reactivated faults...
Quoting 345. Sandy82579:

Ah oh. Someone is writing "Chicken Little" stories again. I quote from above, "Earth%u2019s surface temperature has surged high into uncharted territory, thanks to a record-strength El Ni%uFFFDo event combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming:". Now tell me the writer of this story doesn't have an agenda.

A little history for the writer. Go here http://www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingGraphs .htm and look at the "Average Earth Temperature Summary to 540-millions Years Ago" graph. Seventh one from the top entitled, "Temperature of Planet Earth". In the text it points out that during interglacial periods the earth's average temperature has been higher than now (~130,000 ybp, ~240,000 ybp, ~325,000 ybp and ~410,000 ybp). YPB being years before present. It's the right side of the graph. And oops, man-caused global warming didn't exist back then.


Ha. Wow...I've never seen this one before. Bravo, another non climatologist with a gish gallop of nonsense for deniers to eat up. The past global temperature only serves to show why current CO2 concentrations and temperatures are a large issue. Modern humans have existed for roughly 200,000 years, civilization for about 6,000. The current anthropogenic influenced climate should give great pause for humanity. The Earth will be fine. Also, it would be wise to not speak of agendas when posting obvious gibberish. You do realize there is a whole wealth of peer reviewed literature out there right? Coupled with every major scientific organization supporting the science of human caused global warming right? It takes more than a poorly organized website of another retired professor who seems to have lost his marbles (an not updated his site since 2011) to tear that down. No matter how much you want to believe it. Have a good Thursday!
Quoting 345. Sandy82579:

Ah oh. Someone is writing "Chicken Little" stories again. I quote from above, "Earth’s surface temperature has surged high into uncharted territory, thanks to a record-strength El Niño event combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming:". Now tell me the writer of this story doesn't have an agenda.

No agenda. Just physics. Told you.
3.48" of rain last night in Ocala. That just gives you an idea the amount of tropical moisture in the air and if storms start training across E C FL today then watchout.
Quoting 336. Loduck:

Amen. Throughout my life I have heard atheist and agnostics say that the discovery of dinosaur bones prove that there is no God because they are not mentioned anywhere in the bible. There are many, many events that are not in the bible. Doesn't mean there is no God.

Or Spaghettimonster.

It is scientifically impossible to prove that something doesn't exist. This does not mean one can assume the existence of anything.
It is logically quite possible to prove that something doesn't exist. For instance by identifying self-exclusive attributes. E.g. omnipotence - can God create a rock that is so heavy He can't lift it? Of course not: omnipotence cannot exist.
This reduction of 'God' ought to be enough.

Faith does not feel logic or reality. It does serve purposes, including the best ones. For this -moral- reason I usually don't press the above point. It be mentioned only once here.
Quoting 227. ColoradoBob1:



I would offer this reply to every denier on the web –

I’m your Huckleberry.

hehehe. I love ur post and always look forward to seeing you here ;)
Looks like Typhoon In-Fa is getting it together. Might have just started an RI phase.
Quoting 350. StormTrackerScott:

3.48" of rain last night in Ocala. That just gives you an idea the amount of tropical moisture in the air and if storms start training across E C FL today then watchout.


A potent line of storms developed along the spine of the FL peninsula last night. Only 0.05" for me due to a very brief downpour. The HRRR model nailed the location of the storms run after run, but went a little bonkers with the totals. In some runs it was showing 7 to 10 inches for Ocala. The HRRR tends to do a great job of showing where the convection will develop, but seems to really overdo the accumulated precip totals.
Quoting 347. Naga5000:



Ha. Wow...I've never seen this one before. Bravo, another non climatologist with a gish gallop of nonsense for deniers to eat up. The past global temperature only serves to show why current CO2 concentrations and temperatures are a large issue. Modern humans have existed for roughly 200,000 years, civilization for about 6,000. The current anthropogenic influenced climate should give great pause for humanity. The Earth will be fine. Also, it would be wise to not speak of agendas when posting obvious gibberish. You do realize there is a whole wealth of peer reviewed literature out there right? Coupled with every major scientific organization supporting the science of human caused global warming right? It takes more than a poorly organized website of another retired professor who seems to have lost his marbles (an not updated his site since 2011) to tear that down. No matter how much you want to believe it. Have a good Thursday!


Naga, i just don't know why you guys respond to these knuckleheads. He got exactly what he was looking for. Idk, I guess it's your lifes passion. Most likely if someone posted on here that the Bucs were the worst team in the NFL I would probably respond and say that we are not the worst, just the 23rd worst. Can't wait for cooler weather...
Quoting 358. Bucsboltsfan:



Naga, i just don't know why you guys respond to these knuckleheads. He got exactly what he was looking for. Idk, I guess it's your lifes passion. Most likely if someone posted on here that the Bucs were the worst team in the NFL I would probably respond and say that we are not the worst, just the 23rd worst. Can't wait for cooler weather...

There's a very good reason for Naga and others to respond to nonsense. That is, not everyone who reads these comments is familiar with the facts or the context. Responding to what you and I recognize is nonsense helps those people put the nonsense claims to rest. Otherwise such claims go unopposed and someone who doesn't know any better might believe that the nonsense is true or relevant.
Quoting 335. FLWeatherFreak91:

If you look at the tip of the Mississippi delta it appears there is a little bit of perturbation in the front... Is a low forming there?
supposedly a LOW forms on the tail end of this front and crosses over florida sunday or so..and goes into the atlantic..we'll see what happens
Quoting 358. Bucsboltsfan:



Naga, i just don't know why you guys respond to these knuckleheads. He got exactly what he was looking for. Idk, I guess it's your lifes passion. Most likely if someone posted on here that the Bucs were the worst team in the NFL I would probably respond and say that we are not the worst, just the 23rd worst. Can't wait for cooler weather...


I don't know, I've received some nice comments and messages over the years about people seeing the debunkings and "debates" and coming to understand and do research on their own. Also, I have a real dislike for the spreading of misinformation. Just a pet peeve I suppose. :)
first week of dec the western and mid gulf states should stay alert for this storm...........
Quoting 362. Naga5000:



I don't know, I've received some nice comments and messages over the years about people seeing the debunkings and "debates" and coming to understand and do research on their own. Also, I have a real dislike for the spreading of misinformation. Just a pet peeve I suppose. :)


I get it. On one hand you want to just ignore but then your passion takes over.
Quoting 295. Grothar:




Just tell him you know someone who is much older than that!!!!


but he's younger than that now....
ahhhh hell, I TOTALLY did not mean to plus post 353.

And I got banned last night, too.

HaaRUMPh. Grrrr. Needs more coffee.
Quoting 309. CosmicEvents:


You keep coming back to the point that if they were doing something wrong it would be reflected in their bottom line profits. That's an invalid point in counterpoint to my basic thought that home premiums are higher than they should be for many based on the science of "extreme theory" .


If the science were being improperly applied, and you and everyone else were being charged with unjustified premiums, then how would it not show in the profit margins?

Excess profits there can be offset by losses in other areas of the world with somewhat similar high value insured risk exposure...NE US, Western Europe, SE Asia(some areas), Japan, US west coast, etc.


If that were the case, it would show in their 10K statements as well. But again, this is not necessarily the case of misusing scientific data. If their risk assessment is off in one direction for one region but off in by just as much in the other direction, then overall they are hitting their risk targets. That means that they can, as a company, continue to hit their legal coverage obligations without going bankrupt.

Unfortunately, that means you and others like you are potentially subsidizing the overage of losses in the other regions. That sucks of course, but it's not necessarily an indication of deliberate wrongdoing.

Stick to climate science, you're out of your league in corporate finance science.


Whatever.

Some of these areas might be underpaying...we'll know in 100 years how much they pay out and their/gain loss in each area. While we wait 100 years....what's the real problem with thinking that their might be a temporary error in their risk analysis now?


You seem to be under the impression here that I am defending the insurance companies. I'm not making a claim one way or another. My only point is that, as with science, big claims require big evidence. If there were systemic problems of the magnitude you claim, then there would be evidence of it, and it would be more than just a massive raise in premiums for your region.

The re-insurance market will adjust itself and correct the errors. The insurance companies dealing with consumers will likely be swift to keep pace with any increased re-insurance cost but slower to reduce the premiums in areas where re-insurance costs decrease. imo


Likely. But again, you'd be able to see this in as a reduction in operating costs and a corresponding increase in net profits.

Could you be getting screwed over? Sure. Could the insurance companies in your region be generally misusing data to jack premiums. Certainly. Can they do so without affecting their financial statements? Not in any legal way I'm aware of. Even if it's a game of of being too cheap in one area and too expensive in another, their profit margins would remain about the same and they would still meet their coverage requirements.
Hooo wheeeee, winter knocking on the door, downright COLD Sunday and Monday


Houston
Quoting 253. JohnLonergan:



And if you traveled to France by anything other than sailing ship or a Viking longship, you'd still be a hypocrite to some.
A Viking Longship would be a bad[redacted] way to travel... It looks like I am going to have to unblock a few deniers here to get some more laughs. I haven't blocked the quasi-illiterate one yet because nothing is more amusing than someone trying to correct everyone else on the internet using kindergarten grammar and spelling. What a funny lot.
Quoting 368. RitaEvac:

Hooo wheeeee, winter knocking on the door, downright COLD Sunday and Monday


Houston



I was on a flight to Houston on my way to San Antonio. I was sitting next to two ladies talking. The one lady was moving to Houston. The other lady was telling her about the weather in Houston. She said that it stayed warm all Winter and didn't get cold. She told her to be prepared for wearing shorts at Christmas.
I just kept my mouth shut and didn't say anything. But I wanted to tell her to be prepared for freezing rain, possibility of a little snow, and temperatures below freezing in Jan and February.
It gets cold in Houston.
Compared to Michigan it's a mild Winter. But to tell someone it stays warm all Winter and doesn't get cold in Houston is nothing but a lie.
Can anyone explain to me why a lot of people are forecasting a La Nina next year? I've been looking at historical data here Link
and it's pretty clear that a La Nina is no guarantee after an El Nino. One followed the next strongest event (1998) but it took over a year for a La Nina to follow the strongest event before that (1983). There are numerous other events that had a duration over a year long and some of those had another El Nino follow, sometimes repeatedly.
Quoting 370. Sfloridacat5:



I was on a flight to Houston on my way to San Antonio. I was sitting next to two ladies talking. The one lady was moving to Houston. The other lady was telling her about the weather in Houston. She said that it stayed warm all Winter and didn't get cold. She told her to be prepared for wearing shorts at Christmas.
I just kept my mouth shut and didn't say anything. But I wanted to tell her to be prepared for freezing rain, possibility of a little snow, and temperatures below freezing in Jan and February.
It gets cold in Houston.
Compared to Michigan it's a mild Winter. But to tell someone it stays warm all Winter and doesn't get cold in Houston is nothing but a lie.


Most people in America don't know much about weather.... period. LOT of stupid people out there.
.
Quoting 371. pipelines:

Can anyone explain to me why a lot of people are forecasting a La Nina next year? I've been looking at historical data here Link
and it's pretty clear that a La Nina is no guarantee after an El Nino. One followed the next strongest event (1998) but it took over a year for a La Nina to follow the strongest event before that (1983). There are numerous other events that had a duration over a year long and some of those had another El Nino follow, sometimes repeatedly.

Models are giving that output. Maybe have salt nearby, reliability is limited and as you observed, it is not a fixed rule.
Look this beautiful hook in Rio Grande do Sul (South Brazil) today this morning:
Really impressive to see this here.





As Donald Trump would put it...

People in this country.... actually.... ENJOY.... watching TV shows and living in a fantasy fake world and are happy that way, than looking at the sky and the weather and the REAL world around them!

You know why? I'll tell ya why...because these are WEAK, BORING, INCOMPETENT, STUPID PEOPLE that have no idea what's going on and have no business doing what they are doing.....period. I mean who doesn't want to watch the weather, it affects us every day! Every day people. We're in big trouble.

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Rain? What is that?
I think I've only seen it rain once or twice in six weeks.

Only .14" this month here in Fort Myers.

But rain chances look good for Friday and Saturday. I'm looking forward to the change. Hopefully, we get the rain the models are predicting.
Question for the blog. How is it determined how long an el Niño event will last. We seem to be assuming it will go until next spring. With the increased heating in the Pacific basin, is it possible besides being extremely strong that it could also be long lasting?
Quoting 378. MartinChemnitz:

Need to check you facts Jeff:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/1 8/2015-a-year-of-record-exaggeration-not-temperatu res/

Y'all need to stick to forecasting the weather for next week, and stop jumping into politics like you're doing.


Ha! breitbart! Here is a much more reliable news source you can quote next time, they make up fewer stories...

Link
Quoting 375. pablosyn:

Look this beautiful hook in Rio Grande do Sul today this morning:
Really impressive to see this here.








Nice bow echo. Not sure if it's producing a tornado hook, unless it's anti-cyclonic. You would typically see the hook rotating counter clockwise (cyclonic) away from the cell.
I would like to see the life cycle (just before and after) of the cell to be sure what's really going on. But the cell is definitely bowing out.
Quoting 378. MartinChemnitz:


Why would you bring that valueless collection of nonsense here? This is about science.
sunday could get interesting Gro............................................... .......
ESPI a number derived from certain precipitation anomalies is at times a good indicator in where ENSO is headed, it has been crashing hard, 0.75 today. The Godzilla aspect of this El Nino may only last maybe a few months more and then fall off somewhat sharply to a more moderate El Nino. Looking at the T-Depth anomaly, an equatorial slice of ocean where the top is the surface of the water, bottom is 450m deep, left is west & right is east.. There is plenty of heat and energy yet to be released, yet at the same time the pool of cold in the west is already building to balance.


CPC

Help!

I have been watching the blog, and know that the long range forecasts are pretty unreliable, but I really need a clue.

I am hoping to drive up from Sioux Falls to Duluth MN for the Bentleyville "Tour Of Lights"
http://www.bentleyvilleusa.org/
Link
It is nice and she is taking a photography course. We have a home in Texas and she will be going back before Christmas so I was hoping to take her the first week in December (December 5,6,7) I keep hoping that there will be some snow as I was also going to spend a night a Jay Cook State Park just outside Duluth.

So, long range weather forecast that shows snow still on the ground in Duluth in early December?
Quoting 379. VAstorms:

Question for the blog. How is it determined how long an el Niño event will last. We seem to be assuming it will go until next spring. With the increased heating in the Pacific basin, is it possible besides being extremely strong that it could also be long lasting?






389. vis0
https://youtu.be/Vz_XTSOg6pw (600x480, org 887x706)



there is the Central N. ATL LOW Grothar pointed out 24hrs plus ago...

Last year remember winter/spring 2014/15 how long feeds of moisture headed towards central ATL.

Lets see if ENSO-e influenced energies focus those streams more towards Texas/Fl then up the Appalachians AND if ENSO is so strong it'll STILL form another stream in the mid-ATL, LET WATCH and learn.
oh do not forget the maps STS posted as to the odds rising as to severe BUT i wonder if instead of the extreme SE if Texas might get extremes? ...i don't want it to happen hopefully in the middle of an unused patch of land but imagine a STRONG snowwrapped--tornado
Wow, the Thursday Deep Derp of Gish Gallup sure has a tinge of cranberry to it today.


: P
Quoting 381. Sfloridacat5:



Nice bow echo. Not sure if it's producing a tornado hook, unless it's anti-cyclonic. You would typically see the hook rotating counter clockwise (cyclonic) away from the cell.
I would like to see the life cycle (just before and after) of the cell to be sure what's really going on. But the cell is definitely bowing out.


Oh, But tornadoes in the Southern Hemisphere do not rotate clockwise? Just as tropical cyclones.

The life cycle you can see here i recorded the radar animation: Facebook
If Taz comes on and I'm not here, tell him I saw it first.




396. vis0


Quoting 241. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as for nature's targets on anything that's out of my hands


Quoting 252. ColoradoBob1:



Nature doesn't give a rat's fuzzy butt what we think.
i have to be picky and the reply is on my zilly pg.5 cmmnt#209 (apology that the recent comments THERE are a mess as of my 2 clues to help WxU correct their icon errors only 1 showed up but 4 cmmnts as to baby hawks overhead of me, repeated themselves (the 2nd link has the baby hawk not the first link youtube goofed there, i nehva mayk errorz) ahhh technolgee?
Let's give them something to talk about; a good reason if you believe in protecting the Earth as to why science should trump politics every time:

U.S. and Cuba to cooperate on conservation and management of marine protected areas


November 18, 2015

Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Park Service (NPS) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Cuba’s Ministry of Science, Technology, and Environment (CITMA). The MOU aims to facilitate joint efforts concerning science, stewardship, and management related to Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). The MOU also includes a sister MPA program to foster conservation and understanding of natural marine resources in both countries, sharing technical and scientific data, and promoting education and outreach initiatives.

“We recognize we all share the same ocean and face the same challenges of understanding, managing, and conserving critical marine resources for future generations,” said Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA administrator, who was in Cuba for the signing of the agreement. “The opportunity for international cooperation in marine conservation is invaluable and this moves us closer to ensuring a healthy and productive ocean for everyone.”

National Park Service Director Jonathan B. Jarvis said, “Cooperation among protected area managers of Cuba and U.S. national park and marine sanctuaries is a great way to preserve our shared natural heritage of the wider Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico regions. After all, fish, marine mammals, sea turtles, birds and other marine life exist in ecosystems that rarely fall within maps drawn by man.” 

Quoting 326. Misanthroptimist:


That's very sloppy thinking on several counts. Miller's experiments can hardly be called an example of random chance since the parameters were closely chosen.

I also strongly suspect that your implausible complexity problem is the result of assuming "one try at a time" rather than the million/billions/trillions of tries that were occurring every second. It's not like there was only a few carbon atoms, a few hydrogen atoms, etc. There were 10^really big atoms with various conditions over the whole surface of the Earth.


I am not going to re-debate implausible complexity with you. You can go to any evolution -- creation debate bb and hash that out. You know the implausible complexity of first life by chance is the same odds as a printing press blowing up and a fully unabridged King James bible with sub quotes coming out of the explosion. I am simply pointing out that the debate exists, that it's a well accepted mystery in the abiogenesis debate. Same with 'junk' DNA--the abundance of genetic material that seems to have no purpose when in fact it too was in my view part of the cloud sorting living earth modulations that occurred well before there were cells. What people tend to forget when talking about Daisy WORLD (sorry had Disney on the brain living in California, not Florida) is that modulation is not just to temperature but chemistry. That is why handedness is interesting because the wrong hand is poison, and likewise other chemicals are toxic to life. It's why oxygen, CO2 and other chemical levels in the atmosphere matter.

The reasonable manner than that both temperature and chemistry can be modulated is by rivers feeding water and chemicals back to the ocean. This is why I talk about Carl Sagan's essay on the mystery of the ever luminous sun. The sun like any star is becoming a red giant and hence more luminous. Sagan asked, why wasn't the earth an ice ball when life first formed, why isn't it a gas ball now, or going towards that. The answer I submit is the oceans have become more saline, and that has a conductivity meaning, so it becomes about what the earth uses in energy as much as about what it gets. This is an intelligent design aspect. This is why I talk about defects in living earth feedback loops in terms of rivers and human activity. Why I talk about William Gray's December 2001 forecast skill lost to African rainfall factor when in fact huge dams were built on west African rivers, etc. These are probabilistic approaches.

Well, good morning all!

We've got our first whomph of cold air coming through in time for Thanksgiving - highs in the mid to low 30F's, lows in the teens. The models I'm reading about are iffy about snow, but likely we'll get _something._

My housemates will be away for Thanksgiving week; The Blacksmith is getting new tires for the family car right now, we're hustling to get laundry done to minimize the drying time. I'll probably go with the heat lamp in the workshop to keep the well pump from freezing up. Just finished putting a cat door into the shop so the farm cats have a warm place to sleep.

I'm actually glad they'll be out of town. My trailer's not known for its insulation, and I'll be camping out on the floor front of the woodstove.

Unlike previous years, we've got a load of giant styrofoam blocks (milsurp missile box shipping padding) I've been using to insulate the water lines under the house. Gotta get a new pair of work gloves, and I also need to move the breaker bar out by the stock tanks. Extra straw into the pig house with the piglets, they're old enough to survive it but tiny enough that they'll be pretty stressed by it. We've been replacing the older leaky frost-free hydrants with new ones over the last couple of years, too.

It would actually be good to get a fair amount of snow, that insulates the ground over the septic lines. Let's see, what else? Oh right, I repaired the Pavoni so I'll be sleeping 5 feet away from a ready supply of espresso.

I'll keep checking back here, watching for the models to tighten up so I can tell what to tell everyone when I start getting those weather report requests.

Oh, those religious sparring matches! I have a fun story about that.

Many years ago, when I was a newly recognized acolyte in my religious organization (not a very large one) I was keeping up with a friend, she had a MA in Psychology, and was in Law School. She snapped at one point from the stress, and got a brief few days in a psych hospital for evaluation. I visited her at the facility, she was having fun at that point playing "spot the disorder" in the sitting room, feeling much better. At one point she grinned at me, saying "Has it occured to you that you're the one who thinks she's getting messages from Egyptian gods, and I'm the one who's under observation?" We both had a good laugh over that.

Religion is religion. I don't presume to insist that my path is the only one for everyone, and I'm quite happy to keep up the wall between my religious understandings, and hard physics. One helps me understand my Self, the other helps me know the melting point of various metals when I'm making jewelry, and why it's going to snow next week.
I suggest the Deep Derp waders for the foreseeable blogging futcha here.


Quoting 398. MichaelDoran:



Almost all of that is outside the scope of climate and weather. So, you're right. It's probably best discussed elsewhere.
402. vis0
Quoting 346. indianrivguy:



yes, and that is part of the cause. The deep injection of waste fracking fluids has slicked up previously unknown faults. The New Madrid fault crosses this area too. My friend and fellow Waterkeeper Earl Hatley, our Grand Riverkeeper has been working to stop the deep injection for years. He tells me that a HUGE disaster is just waiting to happen at the Cushing Oil Storage Facility (largest in WORLD). He says that NONE of the storage tanks were designed for earthquakes and that it is a real possibility that given a strong enough tremor, all of them could shake and breach at once.

more on that if you are interested; This is a PDF about reactivated faults...
good example of not caring costing much more later.
 BIG COMPANIES, i'm not against you making money BUT DO IT with the flow of Nature as THEN YOU'LL make more money and have less people upset at "you". win(nature)-win(you*me)-win(shareholders)

This is what happened with co2, companies warned 10, 20, 30, 40 yrs ago as yo co@ build up from research that was 60 yrs old and companies figured keep it quiet it'll go away, has it? 

Now if this breach happens you know who loses besides the most important loss that of life, ...companies / jobs. As it will cause a backlash and you'll loose oil that could have generated money so lets see how this plays out.

Then some honest members, though sadly many here are mostly trolls will post how those that warned the public are ruining their livelihood. THINK a caring person is trying to help ALL,  if the research is just starting then sure keep researching but 30 yrs of real researching and some still want to defend NOT big business but stupidity instead caring... when one cars one is being a good citizen.
Quoting 386. Skyepony:

ESPI a number derived from certain precipitation anomalies is at times a good indicator in where ENSO is headed, it has been crashing hard, 0.75 today. The Godzilla aspect of this El Nino may only last maybe a few months more and then fall off somewhat sharply to a more moderate El Nino. Looking at the T-Depth anomaly, an equatorial slice of ocean where the top is the surface of the water, bottom is 450m deep, left is west & right is east.. There is plenty of heat and energy yet to be released, yet at the same time the pool of cold in the west is already building to balance.


CPC




Thanks, answer I was looking for. I would think that with the increasing heat these super El Niños might still persist longer than normal.
snow chances for sat
top left 5cm
top right 15cm
bottom left 30cm
bottom right warning level


The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
Quoting 402. vis0:


good example of not caring costing much more later.
 BIG COMPANIES, i'm not against you making money BUT DO IT with the flow of Nature as THEN YOU'LL make more money and have less people upset at "you". win(nature)-win(you*me)-win(shareholders)

This is what happened with co2, companies warned 10, 20, 30, 40 yrs ago as yo co@ build up from research that was 60 yrs old and companies figured keep it quiet it'll go away, has it? 

Now if this breach happens you know who loses besides the most important loss that of life, ...companies / jobs. As it will cause a backlash and you'll loose oil that could have generated money so lets see how this plays out.

Then some honest members though sadly many here, are mostly trolls will post how those that warned the public are ruining their livelihood. THINK a caring person is trying to help ALL,  if the research is just starting then sure keep researching but 30+ yrs of real researching and some still want to defend NOT big business but stupidity instead caring... when one cars one is being a good citizen.



For thousands of years, many discoveries have been suppressed from the populations of the planet in order to keep them in bondage. The burning of the libraries of Alexandria is one example of how information can be suppressed.
Can anyone explain why there has been a "cold spot" for month's now in the Central North Atlantic, west of the UK?
Well, strangely enough, I missed the first anniversary of Winter Storm Albus, which was 2 days ago. The first name on the list this year is Arak'Taral. Here is WS Albus's snowfall map, in case you have forgotten.

Here's a brief summary of WS Albus: It started as a winter weather advisory on 11/16/2014, but about 10am on 11/17/2014, a Winter Storm Warning was issued for cities along a line from Sikeston to Evansville for 3-5 inches of snow, making WS Albus a moderate winter storm. The map is of snowfall totals (and no snow accumulated on roads in Carbondale, IL).


96th Annual American Meteorological Society (AMS) meetings, January 10-14, at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans, LA.
Quoting 408. Dempy56:

Can anyone explain why there has been a "cold spot" for month's now in the Central North Atlantic, west of the UK?


meltwater from Greenlands glaciers
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 409. 62901IL:
Well, strangely enough, I missed the first anniversary of Winter Storm Albus, which was 2 days ago. The first name on the list this year is Arak'Taral.
I'm holding off naming winter storms for now. I'm sure I will eventually, but when I do, I want it to be special.
Quoting 346. indianrivguy:



yes, and that is part of the cause. The deep injection of waste fracking fluids has slicked up previously unknown faults. The New Madrid fault crosses this area too. My friend and fellow Waterkeeper Earl Hatley, our Grand Riverkeeper has been working to stop the deep injection for years. He tells me that a HUGE disaster is just waiting to happen at the Cushing Oil Storage Facility (largest in WORLD). He says that NONE of the storage tanks were designed for earthquakes and that it is a real possibility that given a strong enough tremor, all of them could shake and breach at once.

more on that if you are interested; This is a PDF about reactivated faults...


I saw last night that California's Oil & Gas Regulator had ordered a utilities company in charge of what is believed to be the largest Natural Gas storage facility out west to come up with some plan to fix the leak it has had for near a month. That one is located right outside Los Angles, CA and runs a half mile deep. The fumes are making nearby residence as well as workers sick.

Steve Bohlen, the state's oil and gas supervisor, said he issued the order "to prevent damage to life, health, property, or natural resources."
417. vis0

Quoting 407. frank727:



For thousands of years, many discoveries have been suppressed from the populations of the planet in order to keep them in bondage. The burning of the libraries of Alexandria is one example of how information can be suppressed.
reply on my zilly pg.5 cmmnt#210

though i left this here:::

NOW BACK TO WEATHER
...?
check
out the LOW in the ATL at 55W 35N and the front next to it has 4 LOWS
attached or trying to form on it  2 Northeast Europe, 1 south of
Greenland and the BIG LOW Grothar spotted yesterday,

BTW TAZ you spotted it last. Gro 1st, i'm 6th and no body else call it so if TAZ calls it TAZ is 7th and last.
a very early gift, Happy Tofurking® Taz.

Tofurking?
If we can have Festavis then we can have Tofurking. Tofurking, the
ritual of trying to carve Tofu® into the shape of a Turkey 3 or 4 times
in preparing it for a healthier  thanksgiving holidaze. "gobble gobble"
or shall i say "zzziploc zzziploc"


Quoting 381. Sfloridacat5:



Nice bow echo. Not sure if it's producing a tornado hook, unless it's anti-cyclonic. You would typically see the hook rotating counter clockwise (cyclonic) away from the cell.
I would like to see the life cycle (just before and after) of the cell to be sure what's really going on. But the cell is definitely bowing out.
In the Southern Hemisphere. I was under the impression rotation was reversed there. :-/