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Springtime in November: Tornadoes Rake High Plains from Nebraska to Texas

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:46 PM GMT on November 17, 2015

The latest tornado outbreak on record west of the 100th meridian left damage strewn late Monday across parts of western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. The tornadoes emerged from a batch of long-lived supercell thunderstorms spawned by a very strong upper-level low that encountered near-record levels of atmospheric moisture for mid-November. The same upper-level storm has plastered the southern Rockies with heavy snow and produced blizzard conditions over parts of the High Plains, but the tornado outbreak was far more exceptional for the location and time of year. As of Tuesday morning, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center had logged an amazing 41 tornado reports. Many of these are likely to be multiple reports of the same tornado, so the final count may well drop, but it is clear that a remarkable event unfolded. Based on photos via social media, several of the tornadoes were large “wedges.” A Halliburton oil-field servicing plant was largely destroyed by a tornado east of Pampa, Texas, according to the county sheriff’s office. Nobody was in the building at the time, and chemicals and gas leaks produced by the tornado strike have reportedly been contained. Damage reports from this and other tornadoes on Monday are summarized in a weather.com roundup. For a dramatic time lapse of the Pampa storm, see the Twitter clip from JR Hehnly embedded with permission at the bottom of this post.


Figure 1. This tornado was photographed at 6:43 p.m. on Monday, November 16, 2015, just north of Groom, TX, by Quincy Vagell (weather.com). The tornado was first visible at 6:39 p.m. and on the ground for quite some time after. “Downed telephone poles/wires cut my chase short,” he said. A prior tornado from the same storm produced considerable damage south of Pampa. Image credit: Quincy Vagell, @stormchaserQ.


Much like last week’s central U.S. system, which produced tornadoes over Iowa, Monday’s upper-level storm arrived on a powerful midlatitude jet stream that’s kept weather features moving quickly across the nation over the last few days. This week’s upper storm is quite energetic, as evidenced by the tornado that struck on Sunday near Denair, California. Another key to Monday’s events is the unusually moist air mass brought up from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of both systems. Sea-surface temperatures are above average throughout the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, with near-record values 1-2°C above average covering most of the Gulf of Mexico and Northwest Atlantic. Moisture evaporating from these warm waters flowed into the southern Great Plains on Monday in an extremely juicy airmass. Dewpoint temperatures rose into the 55-60°F range beneath a zone of very strong upper-level forcing and vertical wind shear. This setup favored the development of discrete supercell thunderstorms--the kind most likely to produce strong tornadoes--for several intense hours, until a Pacific cold front barrelled across the region after dark. The tornado threat then declined, as a north-south squall line swept across Oklahoma and north central Texas during the overnight hours. Wind gusts above 60 mph were common along the squall line, and a station near Red Rock, OK, reported a 99-mph gust at 1:55 am CST.


Figure 2. All tornadoes (F/EF0 - F/EF5) reported in the era of reliable records, from 1950 to 2014, during the months of November through February. Initial tornado reports from November 16, 2015, across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska are shown in white triangles. Image credit: Ian Livingston and ustornadoes.com, used with permission.

An unprecedented High Plains outbreak for November
Dynamic upper-level storms like the one on Monday often pull moisture up into the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley, which is why places like Iowa can occasionally see tornadoes even in November. Mid-autumn tornado outbreaks are much more likely across the Deep South, where rich low-level moisture is more readily available. Some of the deadliest and most destructive tornadoes in Southern history have struck in November.

In contrast, big upper-level storms seldom allow warm, moist low-level air to be swept northwest into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas this late in the autumn. For one thing, the elevation of Monday’s tornado-struck areas is around 2500 to 3000 feet, which reduces the potential depth of available moisture for severe thunderstorms. Monday’s upper low had a pronounced north-south orientation early in the day, which allowed the deep moisture to be pulled further northwest than usual. Often in such cases, the upper low is “cutting off,” or becoming detached from the jet stream, which would tend to reduce the amount of wind shear. In this case, however, there was plenty of jet-stream energy behind the low, which forced it eastward late Monday and quickly boosted the amount of vertical wind shear. The dynamics strengthened so dramatically that nearly all of the tornadoes occurred near dusk or after dark, without any help from daytime heating to add instability to the atmosphere.


Figure 2. When ENSO is in a warm, or El Niño, phase (top), the frequency of springtime tornadoes goes down. When it is in a cool, or La Niña phase (bottom), tornadoes increase (indicated by red areas). The effect is strongest in the boxed area. Image credit: IRI from Allen et al., Nature Geoscience, 2015.


Did El Niño or climate change have anything to do with this?
Strong El Niño events are associated with cold-season tornadoes along the Gulf Coast, and especially in Florida. There is no established link between El Niño and fall/winter tornadoes in the Great Plains. In fact, El Niño tends to reduce the likelihood of springtime tornadoes across the Southern Plains, as we discussed in an April blog post (see Figure 2). It’s possible that the ongoing strong El Niño event is playing a role in the jet-stream configuration, or the availability of deep moisture, but if so, this is more a function of the particulars of this autumn rather than a well-established fingerprint of El Niño.

Likewise, any direct role of climate change in this event would take time and research to establish, ideally through attribution research. “I don't know how to put this event in the context of lengthening tornado seasons or climate. It's such an outlier,” said Harold Brooks (National Severe Storms Laboratory), who is one of the world’s foremost experts on tornado climatology and the influence of climate change on tornadoes. Brooks added: “Even in the absence of climate change, you can have extreme outliers,” such as the 32 tornadoes that struck on January 24, 1967, from Oklahoma to Wisconsin.

More severe weather, heavy rain possible Tuesday in Mississippi Valley
The exceptionally moist air mass fueling Monday’s storms has been shunted east into Arkansas and Louisiana, raising the potential there for severe weather and flash flooding on Monday afternoon and evening. The 00Z Tuesday radiosonde profile from Oklahoma City showed near-record amounts of moisture for November (3.71 cm or 1.46”), and at 12Z Tuesday, the sounding from Lake Charles, Louisiana, contained 4.91 cm (1.93”) of available moisture, also near the top end of moisture content observed in November. SPC’s convective outlook issued at 10:30 am CDT Tuesday has an enhanced risk of severe weather across eastern AR and LA, which is at risk for high winds and heavy rain from the advancing front and squall line as well as tornadoes from any supercell storms that form ahead of or within the line. Heavy rains and potential flash floods are another threat for Tuesday, with bursts of 3-5” of rain possible. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has a moderate risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance criteria, centered on northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri, as a low-level jet stream blowing at up to 90 mph will be importing ample quantities of Gulf moisture.


Figure 4. Enhanced infrared image of Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific as of 1730Z (12:30 pm EDT) Tuesday, November 17, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific likely to become a very late-season tropical storm
Satellite images show that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) in the Eastern Pacific several hundred miles southwest of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula has acquired some spin and a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The 7 am EST Tuesday run of the SHIPS model showed ocean temperatures were a  near record-warm 30°C (86°F) and wind shear was a low 5 - 10 knots, conditions that favor continued development. The 00Z Tuesday runs of both the GFS and European models showed 90E becoming a tropical depression by Thursday. In their 1 pm EST Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 70%, respectively. If 90E does become Tropical Storm Rick, it would be one of the latest-forming tropical storms in the history of the Eastern Pacific. Since accurate records began in 1949 (with higher-quality satellite records beginning in 1971), the Eastern Pacific has seen only four tropical storms form after November 18: December 5, 1983 (Winnie), November 27, 1971 (Sharon), November 27, 1951 (Unnamed), and November 20, 2011 (Kenneth.) None of these storms hit land. 90E will wander slowly to the west-northwest or northwest at speeds less than 5 mph through Thursday. A turn to the northeast towards Mexico’s Baja Peninsula is possible early next week, but the models are showing a variety of long-range solutions for the path of 90E, and it remains uncertain if this storm will pose a threat to Mexico or not.

Tropical Storm In-fa a threat to Guam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm In-fa formed on Tuesday morning in the waters about 1200 miles east-southeast of Guam. In-fa is expected to track west-northwest and intensify into a typhoon later this week, and could put pass very close to Guam on Saturday. There is the potential that In-fa could rapidly intensify into a major Category 3 storm before reaching Guam.

The Atlantic is quiet with no tropical cyclone formation expected for the next five days.

Bob Henson (severe weather), Jeff Masters (tropical)


Hail storm north of Ballico
Hail storm north of Ballico
Dime size hail
Wild November Skies
Wild November Skies
It looked and felt more like May, in the Oklahoma Panhandle, than November. Temps in the 60s', rain, hail and amazingly beautiful thunder clouds all afternoon.
DSCN1915.JPG
DSCN1915.JPG
Snowing Heavy . Looking SE at neighbor house just across the road.

Tornado Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

114
WFUS54 KLZK 171839
TORLZK
ARC029-045-105-171915-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0024.151117T1839Z-151117T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CONWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1239 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ADONA...OR NEAR PERRYVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PERRY AROUND 1245 PM CST.
OPPELO...HOUSTON AND SEQUOYA PARK AROUND 1255 PM CST.
MORRILTON AROUND 100 PM CST.
MENIFEE...HILL CREEK AND SOLGOHACHIA AROUND 110 PM CST.
BETHLEHEM AND SPRINGFIELD AROUND 115 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CHERRY
HILL IN PERRY COUNTY...KENWOOD...ADA...OVERCUP...BIRDTOWN...MT OLIVE
IN CONWAY COUNTY...PLUMERVILLE...ANTIOCH IN PERRY COUNTY...THORNBURG
AND NEW DIXIE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 102 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3490 9287 3505 9301 3535 9264 3514 9243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 231DEG 31KT 3503 9287

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN



CD

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SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1242 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1239 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
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SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Ah, thanks Bob and Doc for the new entry. Windy weather everywhere, even in Europe ...

Was too late with this post for the last blog, so I may insert it here:


"Barney" (without any purple dinosaur) making landfall in Ireland this afternoon. Source.

Storm Barney: Some 45,000 homes without electricity
Independent.ie Newsdesk, Published 17/11/2015 | 17:46

Later this evening "Barney" will hit northern half of Germany and adjacent countries (maybe I'll see a bit of the storm as well) - only that the storm is called "Heini" in here which isn't much better. "Heini" (pronounced like "Highny" is a shortening of "Heinrich" (Henry), and at least in our family it's a synonym for "idiot": "Ah, look at that Heini not caring for any speed limits ..." lol).


From current Estofex Forecast (note that Estofex is mainly interested in convective events not in stuff like windstorms in general):
A level 2 was issued for the Benelux countries, a large part of Germany, the NW Czech Republic and W Poland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
More here.

And tomorrow right after Barney/Heini the next storm dubbed as Iwan (in Germany) will step in:
Here's what we are experiencing in NW FL today....
Nice weather event in progress!
Thanks Doc.
Great post, very thankful there were no fatalities. Another strange event in a climate playing with way too much energy. Anyone paying close attention can tell, by the many out of whack climate events this year taking place all over the world, that this new norm is anything but normal. Most have no clue.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters and Mr Henson!
Thanks Bob and Jeff. Let's hope NOLA (tonight) or the FL panhandle (tomorrow morning) don't add to the November numbers...
Thanks Doc. I'm really concerned with Tropical Storm In-fa. I think that the potential is there for In-fa to go RI mode category 3 or stronger as it nears Guam, due to the fact of very favorable conditions. Also it has very nice satellite representation for a 45MPH storm. Like I said in the last blog, people in Guam should watch and pay close attention to In-fa.









Here we have yet another batch of record weather to ponder. It may be worth noting that some models of climate change have indicated that late Fall and early Winter would exhibit the greatest change from "normal" weather. Also recall that meteorological Winter begins on 1 December.

Of course, one must include the usual caveat that no single event is proof of any change. Don't worry, keep moving, all that climate change is just a hoax. Too bad the tornadoes missed Senator Inhoffe's back yard...
Quoting 501. Patrap:

Very cool barbamz ,,..

I still suffer from post Barney Song Trauma as my kids were born in 91 & 92.

: P


One of the barney videos my kids played showed kids caving with Barney in the usual saccharine way of his. They stirred up a bear who then ambled out and said sleepily

"Spring comes earlier every year"


I should'a saved that VHS tape. Relevant today
Quoting 11. EricGreen:

Here we have yet another batch of record weather to ponder. It may be worth noting that some models of climate change have indicated that late Fall and early Winter would exhibit the greatest change from "normal" weather. Also recall that meteorological Winter begins on 1 December.

Of course, one must include the usual caveat that no single event is proof of any change. Don't worry, keep moving, all that climate change is just a hoax. Too bad the tornadoes missed Senator Inhoffe's back yard...



Well, if the jet stream Rossby waves are plunging further south because the Arctic has warmed more than the sub-arctic, thus diminishing the temperature contrast that keeps the jet in a more northerly location, and the GOM is warmer due to AGW, it seems like a no brainer to me. I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen more of this, though.
Quoting 10. Patrap:




Hmmm....the original watch box for TW #547 only covers SW MS, yet the actual area also includes the area surrounding Baton Rouge. Why not simply extend that box to include the rest of S Cen/SE LA? Less of a risk, or will that area be covered by ensuing TW #548??

I'd think that Acadiana/BTR/SE LA/Coastal MS would get their own TW box pretty soon.
Quoting 6. DeepSeaRising:

Great post, very thankful there were no fatalities. Another strange event in a climate playing with way too much energy. Anyone paying close attention can tell, by the many out of whack climate events this year taking place all over the world, that this new norm is anything but normal. Most have no clue.
Or, it was simply an outlier. As the blog post noted, there was also a large tornado outbreak in January of 1967 from Oklahoma to Wisconsin that was also unprecedented. All long term records, from weather to football, have outliers. Even the Browns win occasionally. I'd have to see more than a game or two in a row before I started buying Super Bowl tickets though. :-)
Quoting 3. barbamz:

We've been warned that we could possibly lose power here tonight. Very windy this past week and lots of rain, and it looks like it will stay that way for at least the next few days. :( The wind isn't so bad, but day after day it gets a little tedious!
Thanks doks!
Quoting 14. AnthonyJKenn:



Hmmm....the original watch box for TW #547 only covers SW MS, yet the actual area also includes the area surrounding Baton Rouge. Why not simply extend that box to include the rest of S Cen/SE LA? Less of a risk, or will that area be covered by ensuing TW #548??

I'd think that Acadiana/BTR/SE LA/Coastal MS would get their own TW box pretty soon.
The different watch boxes are usually set up with either a different start or ending time. It makes it easier to cancel watches as the weather changes than having one large watch box.
Da Big Round is comin' in soon...expecting 1.42 more inches!

Every little bit helps!
Rain totals with this event are starting to really get impressive, start of many flash flood warnings have begun. Amount of moisture with this system is amazing for November. 4-6 inches has fallen under the flash flood warned areas with an additional 2-3 inches possible. We'll see this repeated across the flood watch areas in many states. Rain projections are woefully underestimated by models. Great job by SPC to issue the watches they have far in advance of this. This system was amazing for it's Spring time like outbreak of tornadoes yesterday. Bigger story will be historic rain totals today. Welcome to the machine.
Quoting 18. sar2401:

The different watch boxes are usually set up with either a different start or ending time. It makes it easier to cancel watches as the weather changes than having one large watch box.


I understand that. But, my point is that if you would notice, the watch box for #547 (defined by the pink box) only covers the area down to the MS/LA border; but the parishes surrounding Baton Rouge that are outside the original box are covered in #547. I'm not talking about the box for #546 covering W LA/AR here.

As of now, there is no watch box for the segments of S Cen LA not covered by #546, or for SE LA/NOLA outside of BTR, or the coastal waters off of LA or MS. I assume that one is now being set up to be issued momentarily.

In addition, portions of watch box areas can be removed as the threat ends.
Quoting 15. sar2401:

Or, it was simply an outlier. As the blog post noted, there was also a large tornado outbreak in January of 1967 from Oklahoma to Wisconsin that was also unprecedented. All long term records, from weather to football, have outliers. Even the Browns win occasionally. I'd have to see more than a game or two in a row before I started buying Super Bowl tickets though. :-)
With climate and extreme weather events, there have been far more than "a game or two in a row" . The thing is, while yesterday's oddball outbreak can't in any way be blamed on climate change, any intellectually honest person, when faced with the steadily increasing number of such climatic/meteorlogical "outliers", will have to admit that there's indeed a change in the air. It can't be explained away by mere chance; things are different now. Period.
I'm just going to leave this here...climate change deniers showing their ignorance. Again.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/564b4807e4b045bf3d f0cde5
Quoting 15. sar2401:

Or, it was simply an outlier. As the blog post noted, there was also a large tornado outbreak in January of 1967 from Oklahoma to Wisconsin that was also unprecedented. All long term records, from weather to football, have outliers. Even the Browns win occasionally. I'd have to see more than a game or two in a row before I started buying Super Bowl tickets though. :-)


Outliner, no. One event then yes, that would likely be the case. We've seen so many events this year, dozens worldwide that are outside of the norm by far. This can be attributed to the record El-Nino ongoing, but it's clearly with an AGW enhancer. Remember last year was not an El-Nino and we set a record for heat worldwide. With so much energy and moisture being added to the atmosphere there is a direct correlation to what we're seeing. Three weeks in a row now we've seen severe weather in the U.S. Getting stronger as the El-Nino heads towards peak. This is the new norm and projections for AGW are woefully underestimated I think.
These severe weather events over the past three weeks show clearly that more energy, more heat, more moisture, equals more rain, more intense severe weather, more drought, and certainly in some cases, extreme winter weather. It's no coincidence that this El-Nino is a record, just as it was not coincidence that in 1997 we saw tell-tell signs of a much changed climate, with a then, record El-Nino. We'll see more severe events over the next two months, perhaps another that is worse than what we saw yesterday. These rain totals total are going to bust the projections and we'll see more daily rainfall records fall in many locals. Bottom line, this is not normal, this is the new normal.
Just posted a new article about the republicans trying to block Obamas power plant regulations. Climate change deniers at their finest.
Quoting 24. DeepSeaRising:



Outliner, no. One event then yes, that would likely be the case. We've seen so many events this year, dozens worldwide that are outside of the norm by far. This can be attributed to the record El-Nino ongoing, but it's clearly with an AGW enhancer. Remember last year was not an El-Nino and we set a record for heat worldwide. With so much energy and moisture being added to the atmosphere there is a direct correlation to what we're seeing. Three weeks in a row now we've seen severe weather in the U.S. Getting stronger as the El-Nino heads towards peak. This is the new norm and projections for AGW are woefully underestimated I think.
Quoting 22. Neapolitan:

With climate and extreme weather events, there have been far more than "a game or two in a row" . The thing is, while yesterday's oddball outbreak can't in any way be blamed on climate change, any intellectually honest person, when faced with the steadily increasing number of such climatic/meteorlogical "outliers", will have to admit that there's indeed a change in the air. It can't be explained away by mere chance; things are different now. Period.



But when it comes to just twisters, as we are talking about here, 2015 is still well below average and even well below the 25th percentile line for the year. So to claim an abnormal amount of twisters in one region in November has the obvious hand prints of climate change is disingenuous.

Michael E. Mann, a climate expert at Pennsylvania State University, said the current level of warming of about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit around the globe (and somewhat more over North America and the Arctic) “has fundamentally influenced all meteorological events,” not just those that get written up in a study.

Dr. Mann said the work and the debate about it were useful. “If anything, this particular debate underscores that the question is no longer whether there is an influence of climate change on extreme weather events. The debate is simply over the magnitude and extent of that influence.”

Source
Quoting 28. VAbeachhurricanes:




But when it comes to just twisters, as we are talking about here, 2015 is still well below average and even well below the 25th percentile line for the year. So to claim an abnormal amount of twisters in one region in November has the obvious hand prints of climate change is disingenuous.




Not at all. The drought in California and the lack of snowpack in the Sierra Nevada's is the link to reduced Spring tornado activity. This California drought has direct links to AGW. We'll see more snow in places, more drought, less tornadoes, record tornado outbreaks, out of season events, stronger hurricanes, record heat, record cold, record after record will fall. It's all connected. The low total of tornadoes the past few years is linked to AGW. The story must be looked at as a whole. The Northeast's winter last year and lack of tornadoes the past few Springs is part of a larger story that all connects with a changed jet stream and AGW is at the heart of all of it.
Quoting 28. VAbeachhurricanes:




But when it comes to just twisters, as we are talking about here, 2015 is still well below average and even well below the 25th percentile line for the year. So to claim an abnormal amount of twisters in one region in November has the obvious hand prints of climate change is disingenuous.


Correct. And no one did that, of course. But even if they had--which, again, they didn't--that would seem to be no more disingenuous than immediately dismissing the role of climate change in every extreme weather event by quickly and desperately invoking the "no single event can be blamed on global warming" line.
Storm Barney is certainly packing a windy punch. 85mph gust recorded in Aberdaron, Wales with a lot of places across the southern part of the UK recording gusts of 50mph+ and sustained winds of 35mph+. Still a few more hours or so until the highest winds pass through.
As reported by TWC
Goodland Kansas is reporting thunder snow with winds of 37 mph gusting to 49 mph. That would be a sight to see.
Here we have what I'll call "dry tropical storm conditions". Or just a windstorm. Judge for yourself.

Weather Conditions for DW9572 Benton City, WA. D9572 (APRSWXNET/CWOP)
17 Nov 1:07 pm PST 64 46 51 SW 55G73 29.57 28.997 0.00 OK
17 Nov 12:52 pm PST 65 47 52 SW 44G65 29.58 29.006 0.00 OK
17 Nov 12:37 pm PST 65 47 52 SSW 51G68 29.59 29.016 0.00 OK
17 Nov 12:22 pm PST 63 47 55 SW 41G59 29.62 29.046 0.00 OK
17 Nov 12:07 pm PST 64 47 54 SW 51G69 29.62 29.046 0.00 OK
17 Nov 11:52 am PST 63 47 55 SSW 44G64 29.61 29.036 0.00 OK
17 Nov 11:37 am PST 63 46 54 S 52G65 29.59 29.016 0.00 OK
17 Nov 11:22 am PST 63 45 52 S 39G69 29.62 29.046 0.00 OK
17 Nov 11:07 am PST 63 46 53 SW 39G62 29.63 29.056 0.00 OK
17 Nov 10:52 am PST 63 46 54 SSW 33G51 29.66 29.085 0.00 OK
17 Nov 10:36 am PST 62 46 56 S 42G53 29.67 29.095 0.00 OK
17 Nov 10:21 am PST 61 46 57 SSW 22G51 29.72 29.144 0.00 OK
17 Nov 10:06 am PST 61 46 57 SSW 26G41 29.73 29.154 0.00 OK
17 Nov 9:51 am PST 61 46 58 S 23G46 29.75 29.174 0.00 OK
17 Nov 9:36 am PST 61 47 59 S 27G40 29.75 29.174 0.00 OK
17 Nov 9:21 am PST 60 47 62 SSW 19G41 29.77 29.193 0.00 OK
17 Nov 9:06 am PST 59 46 61 S 30G49 29.77 29.193 0.00 OK
17 Nov 8:51 am PST 59 46 63 SSE 32G49 29.76 29.183 0.00 OK
17 Nov 8:36 am PST 58 46 64 SSW 27G50 29.76 29.183 0.00 OK
17 Nov 8:21 am PST 58 46 65 SW 40G50 29.73 29.154 0.00 OK
17 Nov 8:06 am PST 58 46 65 SW 48G67 29.71 29.134 0.00 OK

Either way...
I know this is a off topic, but it is something I've wondered about. Why are climate "norms" measured in 30 year cycles? Seems with greater data and computing capabilities, we should be able to extend out these periods for longer terms, unless there is a very specific reason for 30 years. Have a go at it folks.....
Point and case with this current system pushing through. Here in Wisconsin we're expecting upwards of two inches of rain. It's pouring. We will exceed expectations here by at least an inch. More moisture, more energy, more heat. Winter will be interesting. The Midwest is catching up on rainfall over the last month from a below average Summer. At least in the Upper Midwest. With the moisture content being up, expecting this winter to really surprise. Think the Midwest may have a well above average snowfall, while the Northeast may have torrential rains through winter and even a winter outbreak of severe weather for the Northeast is not out of the question. We're going to be seeing wild swings worldwide from one year to the next in all facets.
I see the plus button but I can't plus the blog.
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

Correct. And no one did that, of course. But even if they had--which, again, they didn't--that would seem to be no more disingenuous than immediately dismissing the role of climate change in every extreme weather event by quickly and desperately invoking the "no single event can be blamed on global warming" line.


The person above you seems to be doing just that. I don't follow that line of thinking, btw, no one really seems to have a real consensus of how climate change will affect tornadoes, probably due to their microscale structure.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

I see the plus button but I can't plus the blog.


The same thing was happening to me, and I couldn't see the button, but it just appeared. But its not letting me plus it.
very impressive cloud shield from s america northwd over hispanola out to the central atlantic. wish alittle of it would move overhead. if it dont start raining we could be in for a drought moving into a la nina summer e cen florida
Quoting 35. MrNatural:

I know this is a off topic, but it is something I've wondered about. Why are climate "norms" measured in 30 year cycles? Seems with greater data and computing capabilities, we should be able to extend out these periods for longer terms, unless there is a very specific reason for 30 years. Have a go at it folks.....

30 years provides a long enough time to detect a long term climate signal and distinguish it from weather with reasonable confidence and consistency. Any shorter and you might well be measuring weather. Longer periods really wouldn't add that much more confidence.
Quoting 35. MrNatural:

I know this is a off topic, but it is something I've wondered about. Why are climate "norms" measured in 30 year cycles? Seems with greater data and computing capabilities, we should be able to extend out these periods for longer terms, unless there is a very specific reason for 30 years. Have a go at it folks.....

A 30 year period is used, as it is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends.

Source
Dry slot mucH?

Quoting 42. Xandra:
A 30 year period is used, as it is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends.

Source
Kudos for linking a reputable source. Many here could learn a lot.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

I see the plus button but I can't plus the blog.


The "plus" button should be working for everyone before too long. We will keep you posted. Thanks, everyone, for your patience!
Quoting 4. JNFlori30A:
Here's what we are experiencing in NW FL today....
Nice weather event in progress!
Maybe it deserves to be named!
Quoting 42. Xandra:


A 30 year period is used, as it is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends.

Source

That make sense....Thx
Cold air next week!!!
Quoting 33. Sfloridacat5:

As reported by TWC
Goodland Kansas is reporting thunder snow with winds of 37 mph gusting to 49 mph. That would be a sight to see.


A sight for jim cantore to see..
Quoting 30. DeepSeaRising:



Not at all. The drought in California and the lack of snowpack in the Sierra Nevada's is the link to reduced Spring tornado activity. This California drought has direct links to AGW. We'll see more snow in places, more drought, less tornadoes, record tornado outbreaks, out of season events, stronger hurricanes, record heat, record cold, record after record will fall. It's all connected. The low total of tornadoes the past few years is linked to AGW. The story must be looked at as a whole. The Northeast's winter last year and lack of tornadoes the past few Springs is part of a larger story that all connects with a changed jet stream and AGW is at the heart of all of it.
You are jumping from a single event, which was the subject of my post, to an entire constellation of events. When you do this, you open yourself up to a lot of "prove it" questions. Prove the lack of snow in the Sierra was somehow related to less tornadoes in the rest of the country. Prove the direct links between AGW and the California drought. Prove the lessened number of tornadoes is linked to AGW. If those things are what you think are true, that's fine, but that's much different than stating them as facts. I don't deny that current weather is being influenced by AGW. That much is certainly true. How any single event, like a tornado outbreak, is linked to AGW, will take attributional studies to prove. That's how science works.
Quoting 48. TCweatherman:

Cold air next week!!!
I don't think we'll see much of the colder air this far south. The daytime highs will only be in the 60's but nighttime low will probably not drop below freezing. Our average first frost occurs between November 11 and 20, so we'll already be behind that date next week.
That is one straight line


Quoting 50. sar2401:

You are jumping from a single event, which was the subject of my post, to an entire constellation of events. When you do this, you open yourself up to a lot of "prove it" questions. Prove the lack of snow in the Sierra was somehow related to less tornadoes in the rest of the country. Prove the direct links between AGW and the California drought. Prove the lessened number of tornadoes is linked to AGW. If those things are what you think are true, that's fine, but that's much different than stating them as facts. I don't deny that current weather is being influenced by AGW. That much is certainly true. How any single event, like a tornado outbreak, is linked to AGW, will take attributional studies to prove. That's how science works.


Indeed. My thought from decades of observations. Conjecture, no argument there. An observation does not so make fact and I'm no scientist Sar. So you believe current weather is influenced by AGW by can't link individual events to AGW? If climate is influenced by AGW then individual events, following that train of though, must be influenced by AGW. Directly how much? Who knows? Above my pay grade. I get how science works, just because I give my opinion, does not mean I think it is fact nor proven. It's an opinion. Maybe lighten up a little?
Just for you Sar, I'll add more in my opinion, to what I post. You have a valid point.
Quoting 49. JrWeathermanFL:



A sight for jim cantore to see..


Haha. You made me laugh out loud at work. ;)
Quoting 46. bappit:

Maybe it deserves to be named!
Bridge over Little Redfish Lake (dune lake) a nice little walk from our place in Blue Mt Beach FL
Quoting 52. Grothar:

That is one straight line





And all of that rain traveling straight over me, POURING down on my head. Yeesh. So wet & windy here in St. Louis.
Pampa Texas Tornado Damage

By: SevereStudios
Published on Nov 17, 2015

Shot by Kelley Williamson - Damage left behind by a massive tornado near Pampa, TX on Monday night. Halliburton plant and nearby homes and vehicles damaged.
Here's my layman thinking Sar, I believe that Sierra Nevada snow back plays a direct role into how much moisture gets pulled into large Spring fronts. Lower amount equals less moisture and less energy. I know it's far more complex than that. From a perspective of scientific facts, we see larger Spring outbreaks when we have above average snow pact in the Sierra Nevada's and lower amounts of tornadoes when the pact is below average. Just "think" there's a correlation. That's all.


mid-fall storm
Hopefully a little more fall-like weather for south Fla. coming up....

From the Miami NWS Disco...

EXTENDED FORECAST (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS NO SIGNIFICANT
MODEL CHANGES)...
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PERHAPS FRIDAY. THE
PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS EFFECTIVELY FLATTENED, AND COOLER H5
TEMPS (POSSIBLY TO -9C) AND MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ARE THE
RESULT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN, AND NEITHER
ARE DEPICTING A PRETTY PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY IS
SHOWN TO STALL OVER SOUTH FL OR THE FL STRAITS, AND A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO THIS PAST WEEKEND MAY TAKE SHAPE. DEEP AND
STRENGTHENING E TO NE WINDS RETURN AND SEVERAL SHRTWVS MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, MAY
FINALLY SHOVE THE FRONT SOUTH AND USHER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO PUSH THE FRONT AWAY,
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE GRADUAL PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, AND THE H85 TEMPS FROM THE
ENSEMBLE ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.

NONETHELESS, ALMOST THE ENTIRE LONG RANGE SUITE, ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS, HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 8-11C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS IS GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME
RANGE, AND MAY BE HINTING AT THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR
THIS FALL. LOCAL BLENDS ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F NEXT TUESDAY. STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY SO CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
Tropical Storm In Fa, formed at a remarkably low latitude. Forecast says there is a chance of rapid intensification. It's southern hemispheric twin has yet to consolidate, but is still contributing to a westerly surface flow along the equator.
Quoting 59. DeepSeaRising:

Here's my layman thinking Sar, I believe that Sierra Nevada snow back plays a direct role into how much moisture gets pulled into large Spring fronts. Lower amount equals less moisture and less energy. I know it's far more complex than that. From a perspective of scientific facts, we see larger Spring outbreaks when we have above average snow pact in the Sierra Nevada's and lower amounts of tornadoes when the pact is below average. Just "think" there's a correlation. That's all.

It's more likely that the two phenoms simply share a common origin. It's also possible that the jet stream is enhanced by the presence of a large area of snow on the ground, not just in the Sierra, but also in the adjoining Great Basin. If there's been enough moisture to produce a heavy Sierra snowpack, there's also been enough to spill over into the Great Basin. A stronger jet boosts the likelihood of severe outbreaks over the Plains.

The low pressure system "Heini" has arrived in my location in the north of Germany. Rain rate is impressive even after the front passed. It should end the very warm weather here át the end of the week. Running 5,1 Celsius above normal, but November already has 104 % of rain amount measured against the baseline 1980 - 2010. Today will add more to it.

Speaking of rain, because of the Jet Stream pattern there was a significant rain event in Saudi Arabia today (flash flooding with 2 deaths were reported). Here an animation:



The dynamics looks similar to the Gulf induced rain events on your side of the pond. Here it is the Red Sea.



Found Scott his Christmas gift. On the back it has a 2014 crossed off with a line. :)
El Nino update on Surfline.
Link
72. vis0
As usual i'm late, happy Halloween, and a question as to El Nio (previous blogbyte)

Question for those in the Niño know.

What is the record for replenishing waters to repeak at the ENSO  areas during one El Niño?

Lets use (-.3) as the marking point, which a range of .1 to the maximum of that year in question..

In other words if an El Niño's max was 2.5, once it went down beyond .3 or in this example below 2.2 (2.5 minus .3 = 2.2), how many times did THAT El Niño reach 2.5 or within .1 of its MAX  or reach 2.4 to 2.5 again  in an El Niño event.

Asking  as could this 2015/2016 El Nio be so strong that it peaks NOW at 3.0 then begins to lower, but by late Dec. 2015 it reaches 3.0 again.
Is that possible? (not asking if probable)
Logged into Wu and now...
Did El Niño or climate change have anything to do with this?


whats stop with the climate change crap every time we have a major event we had tornados on tusday be come we are now at the peak of are 2nd tornado season it has nothing too do with climate change what so ever and too aid the strong tornados we had a strong storm over CO could it have some in too do with EL Nino yes but with climate change? hell no
Hhmmmm? strengthening rather quickly, IMO.

Quoting 78. 882MB:

Hhmmmm?




90E looks vary good
Highs in the low 50's this weekend and dry as a bone. Might as well get cool sooner and be used to it, come at me.

and @washi, nailed it.
Quoting 79. Tazmanian:



90E looks vary good


That's a loop of Tropical Storm In-fa my friend, not 90E.
Quoting 74. trunkmonkey:

Smith has been communicating with NOAA about the research since it was published in the summer, and their exchanges have grown increasingly hostile.





It sounds like Climategate all over again, with climate scientists trying to cover up, obfuscate and frustrate all attempts by outsiders to get at the truth.

What gives them the right to decide they are above the law? As a publically funded operation, why do they think they are entitled to pick and choose what information they release to Congress?

And above all, what are they trying to hide?

Wonder how long it will take WU to step on my 1st. Amendment rights!


Funny, you bring up the first amendment which protects your speech from government interference (WU cannot infringe on your freedom of speech because it is not the government), which is exactly what Smith is violating in his witch hunt. Communication between scientists is protected speech, the data and methods used in the study are freely available, why you could download it right now and replicate it. Wonder what the results would be?

P.S. There was no wrong doing found in "Climategate" by 8 independent committees. Peddle conspiracy elsewhere, thanks.
Quoting 65. ChrisHamburg:

The low pressure system "Heini" has arrived in my location in the north of Germany. Rain rate is impressive even after the front passed. It should end the very warm weather here át the end of the week. Running 5,1 Celsius above normal, but November already has 104 % of rain amount measured against the baseline 1980 - 2010. Today will add more to it.

Speaking of rain, because of the Jet Stream pattern there was a significant rain event in Saudi Arabia today (flash flooding with 2 deaths were reported). Here an animation:



The dynamics looks similar to the Gulf induced rain events on your side of the pond. Here it is the Red Sea.




Watch your Heini Chris!
Quoting 83. Naga5000:



Funny, you bring up the first amendment which protects your speech from government interference (WU cannot infringe on your freedom of speech because it is not the government), which is exactly what Smith is violating in his witch hunt. Communication between scientists is protected speech, the data and methods used in the study are freely available, why you could download it right now and replicate it. Wonder what the results would be?
It sounds like it would be something like a non-disclosure act, something that a lot of companies have, even Oil Companies have it. This is nothing new, nobody is hiding anything from the public that they don't already know or need to know.
Fa, a long long way to run!

Quoting 76. VibrantPlanet:


You know what is even more sickening? It is the fact that we divide ourselves in terms of liberal or conservative. The planet doesn't give a sh***. All she cares about is doing her best to support all life. Even amidst the insane amount of careless disruption we are inflicting. The planet is seeking a finely-tuned equilibrium with that giant, ongoing thermonuclear explosion known as the sun. As we further knock down our planet's life-support system, the sun is gonna really start kicking our ass.

This is the real denial, our place in the universe, the planet, etc. Which is why science is so important! We no longer have time for petty squabbles that feed a misguided neurophysiological need to assert the dominance of our memes and belief systems. It's time to wake up and grow up.
What's really sad about all of this is that some politicians are letting their agenda and greed construe the basic principles and fundamentals of science. Science is what makes all of us up, our DNA, our cells in the body, atoms, electrons, protons, gases in the atmosphere, etc... and the fact that some even go as far as banning the use of the words climate change and global warming just shows their pure ignorance. Some of these folks need to go back to school and get re-educated on certain topics in science like physics, biology, chemistry, and especially climate change, and maybe they would actually wake up to reality.
Before I shut the laptop for good I see BaltimoreBrian was able to plus the blog :) I still have failure on this end.Guess I'll see in the morning.
I don't see it on the rainbow satellite for my area (Panama) yet, but the Nullschool wind map shows stacked wind circulation at SFC, 100, 850 and 700 hPa heights. (LINK) . This pattern just developed today.

A southern arm of the typical strong easterly Caribbean trade winds normally bends towards the south and flows onto and over western Panama. The main flow from the Caribbean trades is usually north of Panama and goes over Nicaragua and Costa Rica to the Pacific Ocean.

However, the Caribbean trade winds are currently bending a bit towards the north right now, with a lot of the strongest flow over the Yucatan into the GOM. This is allowing a closed wind circulation to form in the SW Caribbean just north of Panama. As a result, the northerly wind push over the continental divide, and allowing Pacific moisture to flow north up the mountain slopes to my area (Boquete) and we are getting moderate rain this evening - very unusual- especially in mid November when we are normally transitioning to our 4-month dry season. The WU personal weather station of a friend in Palmira - about 2 miles from my location - shows that we are having our wettest November since 2008 following 5 very dry years (for a mountain rainforest region, anyway.)

The wind map also shows a strong reversed flow from the Pacific to the Caribbean 300 miles east of my location going over Panama City and feeding into the closed circulation. (Although weirdly, the Panama City current conditions shows calm winds.)

Usually in the rainy season, we get afternoon thunderstorms that stop by evening. I am not a weather expert - just a lifelong casual observer. I would be interested in opinions and interpretation of this pattern by some of you who are more knowledgeable than me about tropical weather.

Is the new wind map technology worth watching? I know that most of you look for blobs and circulation patterns in satellite image loops rather than the multi-height patterns on the global wind map.
Quoting 83. Naga5000:



Funny, you bring up the first amendment which protects your speech from government interference (WU cannot infringe on your freedom of speech because it is not the government), which is exactly what Smith is violating in his witch hunt. Communication between scientists is protected speech, the data and methods used in the study are freely available, why you could download it right now and replicate it. Wonder what the results would be?

P.S. There was no wrong doing found in "Climategate" by 8 independent committees. Peddle conspiracy elsewhere, thanks.


Note that this individual isn't demanding the release of all congressional emails. They get paid on the public dime and certainly make impactful decisions, so why don't we get tot see them? WAT R DEY HIDIN?????????

Just flag and move on. That particular poster hasn't contributed anything useful to this blog in all the time that I've been here. If it isn't "CLEYEMUT CONSPERACHY" then it some other inane political diatribe.
I remember in 10th grade biology when someone in my class asked if a zebra was a cross between a horse and a tiger. Camarooski's that kid.
Alright I'm going to get back to some weather.

Tampa Int'l Airport tied another record high today, topping out at 87 degrees, which was also set back in 1993 on this date.
Quoting 86. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It sounds like it would be something like a non-disclosure act, something that a lot of companies have, even Oil Companies have it. This is nothing new, nobody is hiding anything from the public that they don't already know or need to know.


Not when the taxpayer is paying the bill it's not protected! Professors, yes, Government employees NO!
All of the research and the documentation supporting it have been released trunkmonkey.

Cold front coming in today was awesome ...so warm and humid this morning and yesterday was terrible ..then the rain ...and the lower temps ...loved it. Was like 55F today


OMG ...this is so, so strange ...

This is txjac ...and justmehouston was my first log on ...WU had me messed up for a couple of days, did not recognize me at all. So I logged on with one of my email accounts and guessed at a password and whala! I was in ...just not who I normally am.

Kind of happy to see this happen as I can see my "actual" join date

Anyhooo ...going to attempt to log on with my other email address and guess at another password and see if I can magically come back as txjac
Quoting 77. Tazmanian:

Did El Niño or climate change have anything to do with this?


whats stop with the climate change crap every time we have a major event we had tornados on tusday be come we are now at the peak of are 2nd tornado season it has nothing too do with climate change what so ever and too aid the strong tornados we had a strong storm over CO could it have some in too do with EL Nino yes but with climate change? hell no

Why don't you save this thought for the next time Dr. Masters or Mr Henson post a blog on climate change?
Quoting 96. trunkmonkey:



Not when the taxpayer is paying the bill it's not protected! Professors, yes, Government employees NO!

All relevant materials have been released, peer-reviewed, posted on-line, etc. A few politicians want to comb through scientists' emails to find some off-hand comment that they can take out of context and make believe there is a conspiracy.

You know, like the way it happened in "climategate." It's childish and desperate...but then, we are talking about politicians.
Wow, those temperatures in Alaska are unreal. The whole state is below zero and in many places well below zero. Is this a normal El Niño the weather pattern.
104. vis0
FROM Dr. Masters last blogbyte::
▬Quoting 24. ACSeattle:


Classic Mayan civilization collapsed long before the arrival of Europeans.

▬ ▬Quoting 30. hydrus:

Aztecs were the ones decimated by Cortez and his conquistadores..Cortez was a sick piece of humanity.
anyone want to read my 2cents worth...
no! oh well.

okay anyone want to waste your time reading mumbo jumbo,
YES!
Then  go here pg 5 cmmnt#205  copy that comment save it and come back here to Dr. Masters & Henson plus observe weather FIRST read that copy later when its a slow weather day.
Quoting 53. DeepSeaRising:



Indeed. My thought from decades of observations. Conjecture, no argument there. An observation does not so make fact and I'm no scientist Sar. So you believe current weather is influenced by AGW by can't link individual events to AGW? If climate is influenced by AGW then individual events, following that train of though, must be influenced by AGW. Directly how much? Who knows? Above my pay grade. I get how science works, just because I give my opinion, does not mean I think it is fact nor proven. It's an opinion. Maybe lighten up a little?

Exactly how much? Who knows, I agree.
In the meantime the "unprecedented" hyping has given cover for the home insurance/reinsurance worldwide industry to raise my home insurance exactly $17,480 just in the last 5 years in incrementally extra premiums to cover themselves for extremerer than precedented weather caused damage.....while at the same time raising other areas premiums much less. All based on speculation and science not much stronger than propaganda...the op itself says "nobody knows". fwiw...i do believe in climate change...just stating the facts here for me.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 918 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 916 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 909 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 902 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
616  
WFUS54 KJAN 180337  
TORJAN  
MSC049-089-180415-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0030.151118T0337Z-151118T0415Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
937 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015  
 
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* UNTIL 1015 PM CST  
 
* AT 937 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLTON...OR 11 MILES WEST OF CLINTON...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
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IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
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Quoting 77. Tazmanian:

Did El Niño or climate change have anything to do with this?


whats stop with the climate change crap every time we have a major event we had tornados on tusday be come we are now at the peak of are 2nd tornado season it has nothing too do with climate change what so ever and too aid the strong tornados we had a strong storm over CO could it have some in too do with EL Nino yes but with climate change? hell no


Careful. Tread lightly. Dangerous to ever question "science". Science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge.
Carl Sagan once said that. He also said that we live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. How true.
Quoting 103. MrNatural:

Wow, those temperatures in Alaska are unreal. The whole state is below zero and in many places well below zero. Is this a normal El Niño the weather pattern.
El Nino effects in Alaska this early in the season aren't very predictable. After about January 1, the overall effect should be a warmer than average winter. The weather pattern there is very progressive, with very deep lows being eventually replaced with strong ridges. This pattern usually means a lot of snow and cold air drawn in off the Bering Sea. Last year at this time, Alaska had a very persistent strong ridge that shunted most lows way out into the Gulf of Alaska, so it was warmer than usual. Stay tuned to see if El Nino repeats that pattern.
Quoting 98. BaltimoreBrian:

All of the research and the documentation supporting it have been released trunkmonkey.


Hey, Hey HEY!!! Just because a few ham radio operators are a little strange, we don't have to keep using that same meme over and over again. :-)
31 years of straight monthly Global Warm biased temps.

The cooling is jus around the corner.

Well, sometime after 2015 which will outpace 2014, the Warmest year ever recorded.



114. beell


At least a couple hundred thousand customer outages across east central Washington. A fairly epic windstorm for Spokane.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1003 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 955 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Quoting 72. vis0:

As usual i'm late, happy Halloween, and a question as to El Nio (previous blogbyte)

Question for those in the Niño know.

What is the record for replenishing waters to repeak at the ENSO  areas during one El Niño?

Lets use (-.3) as the marking point, which a range of .1 to the maximum of that year in question..

In other words if an El Niño's max was 2.5, once it went down beyond .3 or in this example below 2.2 (2.5 minus .3 = 2.2), how many times did THAT El Niño reach 2.5 or within .1 of its MAX  or reach 2.4 to 2.5 again  in an El Niño event.

Asking  as could this 2015/2016 El Nio be so strong that it peaks NOW at 3.0 then begins to lower, but by late Dec. 2015 it reaches 3.0 again.
Is that possible? (not asking if probable)

I suppose it's possible, but the history of other strong El Nino events doesn't show it happening. Of the two very strong El Ninos, the temperature increase was pretty much straight up. Of the strong El Ninos, 1957 and 1972 both showed a double peak, but only 87 had a second peak significantly higher than the first. 1965 leveled off for a period and then reached its peak. I don't know that we have enough history of the behavior of a really super gonzo El Nino to really make much a judgement of what may or may not happen. Eric Weber would be much better qualified than me to weigh in on the issue.

Tracking Cell D4 below us moving N quickly.


Quoting 99. justmehouston:

Cold front coming in today was awesome ...so warm and humid this morning and yesterday was terrible ..then the rain ...and the lower temps ...loved it. Was like 55F today


OMG ...this is so, so strange ...

This is txjac ...and justmehouston was my first log on ...WU had me messed up for a couple of days, did not recognize me at all. So I logged on with one of my email accounts and guessed at a password and whala! I was in ...just not who I normally am.

Kind of happy to see this happen as I can see my "actual" join date

Anyhooo ...going to attempt to log on with my other email address and guess at another password and see if I can magically come back as txjac
Well, another sock puppet, eh? :-) I think they'll email you a link to reset your password if you've forgotten it. I'm glad to hear you are finally getting some relief from the heat. It's come over here now. Still 71, with a stiff breeze, as I wait to see what tomorrow might bring.
206  
WFUS54 KJAN 180453  
TORJAN  
MSC121-180545-  
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1053 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
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CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1145 PM CST  
 
* AT 1052 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER FLOWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
FANNIN AROUND 1110 PM CST.  
GOSHEN SPRINGS AROUND 1120 PM CST.  
PISGAH AROUND 1125 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND  
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3229 9007 3235 9010 3256 8986 3232 8981  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 240DEG 22KT 3233 9006  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...0.00IN  
 
 
 
BYB  
 
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Oklahoma City wettest years

1. 2007 56.97"
2. 2013 52.78"
3. 1908 52.08"
4. 2015 48.81"

Records in Oklahoma City began in 1890
The new morphing cell G1 /T1 South by Ssw warrants full attention.

480  
WFUS54 KJAN 180509  
TORJAN  
MSC121-180600-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0034.151118T0509Z-151118T0600Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1109 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST  
 
* AT 1109 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH BRANDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
PELAHATCHIE AROUND 1130 PM CST.  
LEESBURG AROUND 1140 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3222 9000 3228 9001 3249 8976 3236 8973  
3228 8973  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 237DEG 26KT 3226 8996  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
BYB  
 
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What are they feeding these things?

346  
WFUS54 KLIX 180513  
TORLIX  
LAC091-105-180615-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0050.151118T0513Z-151118T0615Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1113 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 AM CST  
 
* AT 1113 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GREENSBURG AROUND 1120 PM CST.  
EASLEYVILLE AROUND 1125 PM CST.  
KENTWOOD AROUND 1145 PM CST.  
OSYKA AROUND 1155 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
TANGIPAHOA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3091 9035 3090 9033 3089 9033 3089 9032  
3087 9032 3069 9075 3085 9084 3100 9065  
3100 9035  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 243DEG 26KT 3081 9072  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
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College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1158 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1137 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Itsa like a Gale feeder band forming ...




Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IN-FA (1526)
15:00 PM JST November 18 2015
===============================
Near Marshall Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm In-fa (992 hPa) located at 5.8N 155.8EE has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 8.1N 152.4E - 65 knots (Cat 3/Strong Typhoon) - Truk waters (Chuuk)
48 HRS: 9.9N 150.0E - 80 knots (Cat 3/Strong Typhoon) - Truk waters (Chuuk)
72 HRS: 11.1N 145.3E - 90 knots (Cat 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Mariana Islands
Quoting 127. Patrap:

Itsa like a Gale feeder band forming ...





Hello Pat.We are getting hit pretty hard here on the plateau. 28 w/ gusts to 41 mph and increasing..Its nasty out there..
130. vis0

Quoting 116. sar2401:

I suppose it's possible, but the history of other strong El Nino events doesn't show it happening. Of the two very strong El Ninos, the temperature increase was pretty much straight up. Of the strong El Ninos, 1957 and 1972 both showed a double peak, but only 87 had a second peak significantly higher than the first. 1965 leveled off for a period and then reached its peak. I don't know that we have enough history of the behavior of a really super gonzo El Nino to really make much a judgement of what may or may not happen. Eric Weber would be much better qualified than me to weigh in on the issue.


was looking at similar charts trying to find higher definition of the peaks during strong to super El Ninos but as you stated webberweather53 if anyone would have the best reply via webberwx53'   multi-platform corrections might be the best way to search for multi-peak events during an El Nino (strong+).

back to observing weather and waiting to see if around the end of Dec 2015 the southern jet branch blows up.

Imagine the energy meeting up if northern branch digs into the La. area then the southern branch shoots it up the east-coast,\.

 i can hear Jim Cantore "with the 7-10'' inches of heavy snow already on the roads & weighting down trees just beforeTS Larry turns xtratropical off Long Island,NY and deepens we'll need a TS blizzard alert.,
...which name takes over "Larry" (TS name) or the nymph "Echo" (WxCh winter storm names)
 (i'm just the messenger)
((i'm just the messenger))

Blowing nearly 40mph in Berlin today....maybe 5-10mph higher at my roof apartment. It's a bit blustery today.
Quoting 124. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What are they feeding these things?



Carbon dioxide is cyclone food?
much needed drizzle early this morning here in e cen florida. hopefully some showers later . still watching the sw carib. a least a week or so already
next week southern mexico could be under the gun from another tropical threat. ocean navy model
141. beell
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
317 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015
Peak Wind Gusts over the past 24 hrs.
Good Morning. The SPC storm/tornado reports from yesterday; none so far this morning and the current Conus shear locations:



yesterday Reports Graphic
Last 3 Hours:

Quoting 141. beell:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
317 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015
Peak Wind Gusts over the past 24 hrs.



Morning b. Whoa, hold on to your hats! If this was in Florida some of our favorite bloggers' heads might have exploded!
Thankfully, the am discussion for the Southern Gulf is not projecting an organized
tornado threat but we are forecast for some possible severe t-storms later in the
afternoon in Tallahassee: pretty good looking cloud deck over us at the moment which
should keep the instability down later with daytime heating:


MD 1978 graphic
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AL/SERN MS/FAR SERN LA/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 551...

VALID 181121Z - 181315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 551 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK PERSISTS WITHIN
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.

DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF CONVECTION INCLUDING A NARROW/ACTIVE LINE OF
STRONGER STORMS AT THE LEADING EDGE CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN
MS/WRN AL ATTM. INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER AND LOW-TOPPED...WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAINING BELOW 25000 FT.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...ANY LINGERING SEVERE RISK REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE ORGANIZING
EFFECTS OF THE VERY STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR PRESENT...LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
ARISING FROM TRANSIENT/SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WW AREA.


Quoting 124. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What are they feeding these things?


BTUs, and they love them!
Squall line starting to develop in the Gulf; have to see how well it holds together later this afternoon as it nears the Florida West coast:




Quoting 147. weathermanwannabe:

Squall line starting to develop in the Gulf; have to see how well it holds together later this afternoon as it nears the Florida West coast:







The HRRR model shows it falling apart well before it gets to the west coast of FL. We shall see.
Quoting 148. tampabaymatt:



The HRRR model shows it falling apart well before it gets to the west coast of FL. We shall see.


That is what often happens; Jedkins is the expert on that issue being from the Tampa Bay area as well and a current FSU Met student. I am sure he will post something on this later.
Quoting 150. GeoffreyWPB:


The dercho like feature should weaken as it nears the FL west coast, but thats not 100% so I'm still watching it.
152. MahFL
Still 100,000 without power in Washington State.
155. beell
Quoting 143. tropicofcancer:



Morning b. Whoa, hold on to your hats! If this was in Florida some of our favorite bloggers' heads might have exploded!


It was a blustery day! Some of the more extreme wind reports were at elevation-but yeah!
Quoting 151. Camerooski:

The dercho like feature should weaken as it nears the FL west coast, but thats not 100% so I'm still watching it.


I don't think I would go as far as calling it a derecho like feature.
Quoting 159. Tornado6042008X:

LOL!




Sure that's not November 28'th 2100 when the seasons are totally different because of climate change?
Quoting 160. Bucsboltsfan:



Sure that's not November 28'th 2100 when the seasons are totally different because of climate change?


Well if it were 2100 you wouldn't see much of Florida peninsula on the map as it would be under water
8-(
Florida with 1 meter increase in sea level rise




Florida with 6 meter increase in sea level rise



Louisiana 1 meter increase in sea level rise

Common scene now in Miami, FL. Where nuisance king tide flooding has turned chronic.


Quoting 130. vis0:


was looking at similar charts trying to find higher definition of the peaks during strong to super El Ninos but as you stated webberweather53 if anyone would have the best reply via webberwx53'   multi-platform corrections might be the best way to search for multi-peak events during an El Nino (strong+).

back to observing weather and waiting to see if around the end of Dec 2015 the southern jet branch blows up.

Imagine the energy meeting up if northern branch digs into the La. area then the southern branch shoots it up the east-coast,\.

 i can hear Jim Cantore "with the 7-10'' inches of heavy snow already on the roads & weighting down trees just beforeTS Larry turns xtratropical off Long Island,NY and deepens we'll need a TS blizzard alert.,
...which name takes over "Larry" (TS name) or the nymph "Echo" (WxCh winter storm names)
 (i'm just the messenger)
((i'm just the messenger))




Just for the record, Sandy produced an epic snow event in the mountains of Western MD, several feet of heavy wet snow. The worst lake effect upslope events produce comparable totals over a period of a few days in winter but water equivalents are less.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181435
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
635 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system south of Mexico.

Updated: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure located about 675 miles south-southeast of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have continued to become better
organized this morning. Satellite data indicate that a tropical
depression may be forming, and if the current development
trend continues advisories will be initiated on a tropical
depression later this morning or this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 164. Skyepony:

Common scene now in Miami, FL. Where nuisance king tide flooding has turned chronic.




Those royal palms in front of the building on the right don't look too healthy. It looks like they've been recently transplanted, but I wonder if the salt water is adding to their woes. In Florida, royal palms are native to freshwater swamps.
Speaking of tides and sea level rise.................................

http://news.sciencemag.org/environment/2015/11/ho w-warming-oceans-unleashed-ice-stream


Rapid melting of Greenland glacier could raise sea levels for decades

Beneath the calm, white surface of Greenland, rivers of ice are flowing into the ocean—and some are moving very fast indeed. The speedy glaciers on the island’s warmer west coast, shedding kilometers of ice into the sea each year as warm ocean waters under-mine them, have raised the most alarm about potential sea level rise. But a much bigger glacier is now on the move in Greenland’s remote 
northeast—and a new study suggests it’s likely to continue its rush to the sea for decades to come.

The vulnerable glacier, part of a broader flow of ice called the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, shows that yet another region of Greenland is feeling the effects of warming oceans. “Until fairly recently, we’ve seen the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream as a cold, re-mote feature that wasn’t likely to do anything interesting,” says Ben Smith, a glaciologist at the University of Washington, Seattle, who was not involved in the study. But as Jeremie Mouginot of the University of California (UC), Irvine, lead author of the new paper published online in Science today, explains, “It’s one more side of Greenland that’s starting to lose mass … It’s like a boat that is taking on water from all sides.”

Quoting 162. blueyedbiker:


According to Gore, Florida should already be under water lol

Citation, please.
Quoting 106. CosmicEvents:


Exactly how much? Who knows, I agree.
In the meantime the "unprecedented" hyping has given cover for the home insurance/reinsurance worldwide industry to raise my home insurance exactly $17,480 just in the last 5 years in incrementally extra premiums to cover themselves for extremerer than precedented weather caused damage.....while at the same time raising other areas premiums much less. All based on speculation and science not much stronger than propaganda...the op itself says "nobody knows". fwiw...i do believe in climate change...just stating the facts here for me.


You're not stating facts. You're stating conjecture/conspiracy theory with no supporting evidence.

Insurance companies base premiums on risk models and they have to be justified. There are some pretty strict regulations about what insurance can and cannot do, including how much money they need to keep on hand to cover costs. For example, an insurance company can't raise rates just because they feel like lining their pockets.

Before you start making wild claims, try doing some research first. Look at what your insurance covers, then look for the data related to risks associated with that coverage. For example, for flood insurance look for data regarding inundation recurrence. For severe weather in general, look at data related to that. Look at how much damage (dollar wise) the events are and their frequency. Most of the data is freely available or is a simple email away.

Then gather up the demographic data for your region. What's been happening with home/land values? What's been happening with the population? So on and so forth. Again, you can find this information easily and for free online.

Now you have enough data for a simple model. You can do best case, average case, and worst case. Project how much each scenario is likely to cost, then use the demographic data to figure out an average cost per person. For extra credit, utilize climate and growth projections for your region to estimate how rates will change over the next couple of decades.

If you see the cost trend line going up, then you know why the insurance companies in the area are raising their rates. If you see the trend lines going down, but insurance costs are still going up (at significantly more than inflation), you now have evidence to your local/state officials to indicate possible foul play.

It's so much easier to vilify something than to understand it. No one likes to see their premiums go up, but the first response shouldn't be to grab torches and pitchforks. It should be investigating WHY they have gone up.

Sea Level Rise. I purchased a modest ocean front home in the Florida Keys in 1990 that has a concrete block sea wall. In 1996 I added an 8 inch block as high tides were often topping the sea wall, this additional block slowly became less effective with sea level rise and now I am back to where I was 19 years ago with water topping the wall, last week as an interim measure I added a 4 inch block.
94 november we had some severe flood tides and tropical storm gordon left us with water levels ive never seen since. e cen fl.
Quoting 162. blueyedbiker:


According to Gore, Florida should already be under water lol

Um, no. Why would you even claim that?
Mobile is getting hammered right now.

...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


10:00 AM MDT Wed Nov 18
Location: 13.0 degrees N 107.2 degrees W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


1st TD in the E PAC since patricia
The frontal line is thankfully moving pretty quickly across the Gulf so the training bands are not stationary for too long which should help reduce some of the temporary flooding issues:

Southeast sector loop
Monthly state of the climate report is out from NOAA this morning. I'm sure Dr. M will have a detailed post on it later. Some quick highlights though:

*October 2015 warmest October on record
*October 2015 most anomolously warm month of any month on record, by 0.07C (September 2015 held the old record).
*Land and ocean temperatures both warmest on record for October
*January-October 2015 is the warmest such period on record
Quoting 161. rmbjoe1954:



Well if it were 2100 you wouldn't see much of Florida peninsula on the map as it would be under water
8-(
yes as well as a lot of the east coast cities as well...and all around the world where cities are built close to the coastline...but humans adapt very well, we all know populations will just move inland and adjust to the new maps over time.
182. ADCS
Quoting 173. Misanthroptimist:


Um, no. Why would you even claim that?


Because it's not about truth or accuracy, it's about partisan back-slapping.
Quoting 107. JohnLonergan:

The effect of El Nino on the temperature trend, 2015 YTD shown as a red asterisk.


quiet, fool! don't you know the mention of al gore is like kryptonite to 'warmists'?!

Quoting 173. Misanthroptimist:


Um, no. Why would you even claim that?
Quoting 181. LargoFl:

yes as well as a lot of the east coast cities as well...and all around the world where cities are built close to the coastline...but humans adapt very well, we all know populations will just move inland and adjust to the new maps over time.



we all know? adjust to the new maps?

WTH?


Please, keep us learned folks out of your drabble.
REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 3094 8679 3094 8644 3059 8654 3060 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 180DEG 25KT 3063 8669

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BUTTS
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 909 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 823 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 750 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 707 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 622 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Quoting 171. jjjerry1:

Sea Level Rise. I purchased a modest ocean front home in the Florida Keys in 1990 that has a concrete block sea wall. In 1996 I added an 8 inch block as high tides were often topping the sea wall, this additional block slowly became less effective with sea level rise and now I am back to where I was 19 years ago with water topping the wall, last week as an interim measure I added a 4 inch block.


Getting a lot of Nuisance level floods in the absence of significant storms, in the Chesapeake Bay region as well in boreal autumn 2015.


Quoting 185. schwankmoe:

quiet, fool! don't you know the mention of al gore is like kryptonite to 'warmists'?!



Ok, that got a good chuckle out of me.
When one sees the Miss River flowing North at New Orleans, you know it is NOT a normal day.

K in 05' did it, Betsy in 65' as well.


To see it is quite a amazing thang'.

NYC with a 6 foot sea level rise.............................................. .......
Quoting 181. LargoFl:

yes as well as a lot of the east coast cities as well...and all around the world where cities are built close to the coastline...but humans adapt very well, we all know populations will just move inland and adjust to the new maps over time.

While that well may be true, I'm less sanguine about their ability to adapt to a lack of food or water.
Quoting 192. LargoFl:

NYC with a 6 foot sea level rise.............................................. .......


No problem, you stated that folks will "just adjust to the new maps".

Yeah, run with dat thought.

Are you sure your not with FEMA ?

Quoting 194. Misanthroptimist:


While that well may be true, I'm less sanguine about their ability to adapt to a lack of food or water.
yes and just think about the economy etc..if indeed this sea level rise verifies..it wont be good.
Quoting 76. VibrantPlanet:


You know what is even more sickening? It is the fact that we divide ourselves in terms of liberal or conservative. The planet doesn't give a sh***. All she cares about is doing her best to support all life. Even amidst the insane amount of careless disruption we are inflicting. The planet is seeking a finely-tuned equilibrium with that giant, ongoing thermonuclear explosion known as the sun. As we further knock down our planet's life-support system, the sun is gonna really start kicking our ass.

This is the real denial, our place in the universe, the planet, etc. Which is why science is so important! We no longer have time for petty squabbles that feed a misguided neurophysiological need to assert the dominance of our memes and belief systems. It's time to wake up and grow up.
Ditto. I just hope that the earth doesn't decide to start kicking our ass at the same time.
Quoting 195. Patrap:
No problem, you stated that folks will "just adjust to the new maps".

Yeah, run with dat thought.

Are you sure your not with FEMA ?
The only issue I see with that map is that sea level rise probably won't stop at six feet. (Not thinking about storm surge on top of SLR.) Other than that ...
Quoting 181. LargoFl:

yes as well as a lot of the east coast cities as well...and all around the world where cities are built close to the coastline...but humans adapt very well, we all know populations will just move inland and adjust to the new maps over time.



At some point the realization that shoreline real estate will lose most of its value will sink in to banks and insurers and they'll stop underwriting mortgages making that loss happen more suddenly. Taxpayers will probably have to deal with the resultant fallout.
Quoting 199. georgevandenberghe:




At some point the realization that shoreline real estate will lose most of its value will sink in to banks and insurers and they'll stop underwriting mortgages making that loss happen more suddenly. Taxpayers will probably have to deal with the resultant fallout.


Banks and insurance companies will have to bankrupt and go out of business, because the taxpayer sure as hell wont be paying for any of it. We have generation rent in full throttle now and can't afford anything and don't want responsibility so where everybody thinks the money is going to come from is a pipe dream.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1045 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 1045 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 171. jjjerry1:

Sea Level Rise. I purchased a modest ocean front home in the Florida Keys in 1990 that has a concrete block sea wall. In 1996 I added an 8 inch block as high tides were often topping the sea wall, this additional block slowly became less effective with sea level rise and now I am back to where I was 19 years ago with water topping the wall, last week as an interim measure I added a 4 inch block.
We purchased 1 acre on Manasota key in Englewood in 1999 and now have 1.2 acres of available land. The beach has increased over 100 feet in the last 17 years and our sea oats and dune line have also increased by about 80 feet with no beach renourishments. One major factor is eradicating the Australian pines, which create too much shade for the sea oats and other ground cover that holds sand to flourish.
Quoting 35. MrNatural:

I know this is a off topic, but it is something I've wondered about. Why are climate "norms" measured in 30 year cycles? Seems with greater data and computing capabilities, we should be able to extend out these periods for longer terms, unless there is a very specific reason for 30 years. Have a go at it folks.....


It's from sampling theory and an assumption that the underlying distribution of things like annual temperature and precipitation are distributed normally. For a normal distribution, it takes approximately 10 samples to get reliable estimates of the mean of the distribution. It takes 30 to get reliable estimates of the second moment of the distribution (standard deviation.) See here for a proof of the latter.


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