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Will El Niño Bring a December Warm Wave to North America?

By: Bob Henson 5:43 PM GMT on November 13, 2015

If you’re looking for an old-fashioned holiday, you may be out of luck across large parts of the U.S. and Canada, at least when it comes to December cold. El Niño climatology and seasonal forecast models are pointing toward high odds of a very mild December across most of the continent east of the Rockies and north of the Deep South. We wouldn’t expect every day to be unusually balmy--and in December, “warmer than average” can still be quite chilly--but the analogue years and the model forecasts do raise the possibility of at least a few days of record-melting weather across a vast area.

How the effects of a strong El Niño unfold during autumn
WU contributor Eric Webb (@webberweather) tweeted a powerful image the other day (Figure 1 below). It’s a composite showing the likelihood of above- and-below-average temperatures for each month during strong El Niño events (11 in all since 1895). Notice how the composites change dramatically from October to November to December, before settling into the prototypical mild-north/cool-south pattern for January through March.



Figure 1. Month-to-month variations in average temperature during strong and “super” El Niño events between 1895 and 2014. Temperature departures are shown in blue/green colors (cooler than average) and red/orange colors (warmer than average), as calculated against the long-term average for the period 1895-2000. The El Niño events in these composites (peak Niño3.4 indices of at least 1.5°C above average for at least three overlapping three-month periods) include 1896-97, 1902-03, 1930-31, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92, and 1997-98. Image credit: Eric Webb, @webberweather, using a mapping/analysis tool from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory.


Figure 2. Departures from average in U.S. temperatures for October 2015. Image credit: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.


Thus far, the 2015-16 El Niño is behaving much as you would expect a strong event to behave in terms of U.S. temperature effects, with a spoonful of long-term warming and a few sprigs of natural variability mixed in. Figure 2 shows that we saw a warmer-than-average western and central U.S. during October 2015--in fact, record-warm in some areas--with mostly near-average temperatures near the Ohio Valley and along most of the East Coast. This roughly matches the west-to-east contrast depicted in Figure 1 for October, provided you bump up the temperatures from Figure 1 across the board. For the first few days of November 2015, we’re again in the groove for the overall pattern one would expect based on the composites in Figure 1: cooler-than-average readings in the far West and mild readings in the East. The biggest departure from the El Niño composite so far this month is the marked mildness over the Midwest. We still have more than two more weeks of November to go, but NOAA’s latest 6-to-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks strongly support the cool-West/mild-East pattern that fits with the Figure 1 climatology.

What do seasonal climate models say?
NOAA’s Climate Forecast System model (CFSv2) has been singing a consistent tune over the last few days, and it doesn’t sound like your typical holiday song. For more than a week, daily runs of the CFSv2 have called for an unusually mild December across nearly all of North America, with the possible exception of Texas, Mexico, and Alaska. “With such persistence in the CFS, I don't see much room for deviation from this forecast,” says WSI’s Michael Ventrice, who adds that the ECMWF seasonal model paints a similar picture. Overall, says Ventrice, this is “some of the most anomalous warmth I've ever seen” in monthly model output.


Figure 3. Surface temperature forecasts for December from NOAA’s CFSv2 model, produced each day from November 4 (top left) to November 12 (bottom right). Temperatures are shown as departures from the monthly average in degrees Celsius, with reds and tans indicating warmer-than-normal readings for the month.

The caveats
Every El Niño event is different, and we only have two “super” El Niños in modern records that compare to the current event in strength (1982-83 and 1997-98). Even across the 11 cases encompassed in the Figure 1 composites, not every December shows the breadth of unusual mildness implied in the composites. In each of these 11 cases, the warmth shows its own distinctive fingerprint. However, very few parts of the country experienced below-average monthly readings during any of these Decembers. The exceptions are 1896 and 1902, which run cool mainly because they fall toward the cool end of the 1895-2000 comparison period, and the odd case of December 1972, which came in below average for most of the contiguous U.S. west of the Appalachians.

At NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, forecaster Stephen Baxter provides some more perspective. Although the warm-West/less-warm-East pattern shown in Figure 2 does appear to roughly match the El Niño composite in Figure 1, October 2015 was clearly a lot warmer than the composite. Baxter points out that, by itself, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) doesn’t tend to produce the type of dramatic nationwide warmth seen in both September and October. Thus, he said, “To a first order, ENSO is not to blame for the warm autumn thus far." Baxter added that the CFSv2 isn’t extremely skillful predicting monthly temperatures this far out, because of the role of month-to-month climate variability. NOAA will issue its next set of long-lead climate outlooks on November 19. “We will likely have lots of red on our December outlook," said Baxter, "but with more modest probabilities than those inferred from the CFSv2. So while the odds of a record or near-record warm month are substantially elevated across parts of the northern contiguous U.S., it is still not the most likely outcome.”

The dramatic month-by-month evolution seen in Figure 1 for autumn settles down by January. At that point, the Pacific jet stream is much more likely to fall into the midwinter pattern typical of strong El Niños, with storm systems barreling into California and across the South while mild air spreads across much of the northern U.S. and eastern Canada. These atmospheric effects can persist through much of winter even if the warm sea-surface temperatures associated with El Niño begin to cool. One potential fly in the ointment is the possibility of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, which is highlighted in the latest Arctic Oscillation outlook produced by Judah Cohen and colleagues at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. Snow cover advanced more quickly than usual over Siberia during October, and Cohen’s work has related this variable to an enhanced risk of negative NAO conditions by early winter, especially in January and February. Running counter to the warming effect of a strong El Niño, a period of negative NAO would favor intrusions of cold air over the northeast U.S. In the past, the combination of a negative NAO and a strong El Niño has led to some noteworthy winter storms along and near the East Coast, so it will be interesting to see if this pairing actually develops.

What about the ski season?
Milder-than-usual winter weather is anathema to skiers and snowboarders, but snow hounds now have a place to find winter outlooks specific to their favorite resorts. The website opensnow.com unveiled its first-ever nationwide winter snow outlooks in October (see map below), with the forecasts just updated this past Tuesday. To the best knowledge of company founder Joel Gratz, this is the first long-range seasonal snow forecast specifically tailored for ski areas. The outlooks were produced in collaboration with Amato Evan, an assistant professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Evan’s technique includes the precipitation and temperature outlooks common to most seasonal forecasting efforts, but it goes a step further by translating these two variables into the likelihood of snowfall at various locations and time periods. The technique also incorporates the tendency of El Niño years to skew snowfall toward the southern half of the western U.S. ski areas, as evident in Figure 4.
Gratz adds a cautionary/encouraging note: “If we are forecasting that a ski area will see below average snowfall over a 6-month season, they will still likely experience plenty of snow storms and powder days, so don’t be too picky.”

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson







El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 489. tampabaymatt:
It would be nice if the 'train wreck' was limited to Sunday night. Funny, I logged on last night and it didn't take long to see the blog was back into a downward spiral. I immediately guessed that it involved the usual suspects, and of course it did. I guess some people have nothing better to do than come on to a blog, argue with others and try to discount every one else's opinion. I'm glad I have enough joy in my life to realize how pathetic that is.
Apparently the irony of your comment is lost on you.
Quoting 441. beell:



Well, if you must know my opinion, AGW and ISIS are unrelated. This area of the world has been embroiled in religious conflict for a long, long, time.

Some of our ancestors went through a couple hundred years of Christian violence. Acts of terror accompanied this conflict. On a much larger scale than what we have seen this week.

Until we found a compromise: Religious institutions and ideologies should be separate from the government of state.

Until that changes in the Muslim world, conflict will continue-regardless of the weather.


I respectfully disagree that there is no relationship. As I've said many times, the DoD is one of the largest consumers of climate information in the country. It's not just for future planning of logistics, bases, etc. but also to predict where problems could arise. The DoD regularly researches and investigates politically unstable regions of the world to better ascertain impacts on national security. These "Hot Spot" reports include many factors, including impacts of current and future climate changes.

History is replete with examples of civilizations collapsing due to regional/global climate changes. Climate changes make any bad situation worse. Syria was already in a bad situation. The exceptional drought (and the lack of help provided by their "government") was the proverbial straw that broke the camels back. Now you have a a large group of desperate angry starving people who feel powerless to do anything about their situation. You didn't need to be a psychic to see were that would lead, especially with a group like ISIS in the region.
marine model has backed off on high seas in the nw carib but looking at the vis. loop they may change back soon
lets just go with weather today

maybe I should launch a go fund me to save the world page

I fix all this up in a couple days


lol
Quoting 498. Barefootontherocks:

From earlier in the thread.


I can't read these links. I had to laugh.

SEVERE WEATHER threat in the middle today into tomorrow.
STAY SAFE from climate change big winds!

VIVE LA FRANCE...

(edit:spelling)


Just make sure you wash your hands before sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming "LA LA LA". You wouldn't want to get an ear infection.
Quoting 509. Xyrus2000:



Just make sure you wash your hands before sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming "LA LA LA". You wouldn't want to get an ear infection.

Hey, what killed off South American civilizations hundreds of years ago? Nevermind. Fearmongers don't understand history - or weather.

(typo edit)
Quoting 489. tampabaymatt:



It would be nice if the 'train wreck' was limited to Sunday night. Funny, I logged on last night and it didn't take long to see the blog was back into a downward spiral. I immediately guessed that it involved the usual suspects, and of course it did. I guess some people have nothing better to do than come on to a blog, argue with others and try to discount every one else's opinion. I'm glad I have enough joy in my life to realize how pathetic that is.


Who are these "usual suspects"? If you are going to throw insults at the community, at least have the courtesy to not be coy about it.
i think wunderkidcayman owes stormtracker scott a cookie with today update with EL Nino at 3.0 in nino 3.4 and since he said it would olny peak at 2.5 well look what happen i gust them models back in spring time in 2015 where right after all and the olny thing you said was it would peak at 2.0 or 2.5 so wunderkidcayman owes stormtracker scott a apology i think some of you on here all so owe scott a apology for downcasting him this last spring the models back in spring of 2015 where right after all
Many people, myself included, have strong feelings about what happened in Paris. I post about it on other fora. But this is a weather blog and except in cases of immediate danger which cannot be communicated by other means, I argue we should stick to weather, climate and science topics with policical and philosphical discussions (competely worthy though of exposition elsewhere] limited to their application to topics relevant to this blog.
Speaking of CO2, Mauna Loa's daily average concentration has been above 400ppm four times in the past week, and looks poised to do so again today, meaning that the weekly average will also be above 400, meaning that *December's* (if not November's) average will also be above 400ppm for the first time since many millennia before calendars were even invented. As has been noted several times over the past few years, the monthly concentration for September, 2016, may dip just under 400, but all other months for the rest of your life--and mine, and my childrens', and my eventual grandchildrens', and my great-grandchildrens'--will be above that arbitrary line.

There. Isn't that a pleasant thought?
Quoting 514. georgevandenberghe:

Many people, myself included, have strong feelings about what happened in Paris. I post about it on other fora. But this is a weather blog and except in cases of immediate danger which cannot be communicated by other means, I argue we should stick to weather, climate and science topics with policical and philosphical discussions (competely worthy though of exposition elsewhere] limited to their application to those three topics.



I think that is pretty much it. There are some connections between climate change and global turmoil as noted, but beyond that, the event(s) in Paris require serious and thoughtful consideration, which is difficult in any setting, but especially one like this. Not to say those discussions shouldn't happen elsewhere, but no good will come of it here.
Society 'to be hit by climate change'

Prof Richard Tol predicts the downsides of warming will outweigh the advantages with a global warming of 1.1C - which has nearly been reached already.

Prof Tol is regarded by many campaigners as a climate "sceptic".

He has previously highlighted the positive effects of CO2 in fertilising crops and forests.

His work is widely cited by climate contrarians.

"Most people would argue that slight warming is probably beneficial for human welfare on net, if you measure it in dollars, but more pronounced warming is probably a net negative," Prof Tol told the BBC Radio 4 series Changing Climate.

Asked whether societies were at the point where the benefits start to be outweighed by consequences, he replied: "Yes. In academic circles, this is actually an uncontroversial finding."


Link
Quoting 514. georgevandenberghe:

Many people, myself included, have strong feelings about what happened in Paris. I post about it on other fora. But this is a weather blog and except in cases of immediate danger which cannot be communicated by other means, I argue we should stick to weather, climate and science topics with policical and philosphical discussions (competely worthy though of exposition elsewhere] limited to their application to those three topics.



Plenty on the plate to chew over the next two days with a back to back severe outbreak likely to play out. Large population centers under the gun today with a tornado outbreak possible and Patrap's neck of the woods in danger tomorrow. El-Nino continues to wreck havoc through Texas and the Gulf Coast. Tropical development still a possibility too with SST's and instability high in the SW Caribbean. While not likely, these condition may linger through December this year. Not out of the question that we'll see a historic late season storm this year.
Mauna Loa annual mean data (CO2) from NOAA shows a drop in last two years, and shows NO YEAR above 400ppm. Will the value rise above this year? I can hardly wait to find out.

NOAA Mauna Loa homepage
Quoting 511. Barefootontherocks:


Hey, what killed off South American civilizations hundreds of years ago? Nevermind. Fearmongers don't understand history - or weather.

(typo edit)


White People?
Just passing this along -



According to the JMA, October 2015 (+0.53C) is a new record, beating the record set last year by whopping +0.19C. This makes is just the second month on record, and second month in row, with an anomaly of at least +0.5C above the 81-10 average.

>>This is now also the largest anomaly for any month on record.

(Thanks to bftv at neven’s forum for this.)


Link

Quoting 521. Barefootontherocks:

Mauna Loa annual mean data (CO2) from NOAA shows a drop in last two years, and shows NO YEAR above 400ppm. Will the value rise above this year? I can hardly wait to find out.

NOAA Mauna Loa homepage


393
396
398

.... where's the drop? and yes, 2015 will be over 400 ppm.
Quoting 522. pipelines:



White People?
Before that. Drought. You know, weather. And the inability or maybe no desire to travel far enough to escape it.
Quoting 521. Barefootontherocks:

Mauna Loa annual mean data from NOAA shows a drop in last two years, and shows NO YEAR above 400ppm. Will the value rise above this year? I can hardly wait to find out.

NOAA Mauna Loa homepage


Huh?

2012 393.82 0.12
2013 396.48 0.12
2014 398.61 0.12
Quoting 525. pipelines:



393
396
398

.... where's the drop? and yes, 2015 will be over 400 ppm.
Thanks for the correction. I read the '012 figure wrong. Unintentional.

Still, not over 400ppm. Only the "trend" graphs that have had it over 400ppm.

Add;
Quoting 527. VAbeachhurricanes:



Huh?

2012 393.82 0.12
2013 396.48 0.12
2014 398.61 0.12

Quoting 526. Barefootontherocks:

Before that. Drought. You know, weather. And the inability or maybe no desire to travel far enough to escape it.


maybe my history is lacking, but which South American civilization collapsed hundreds of years ago due to drought?
Quoting 527. VAbeachhurricanes:



Huh?

2012 393.82 0.12
2013 396.48 0.12
2014 398.61 0.12

Perhaps someone's monitor is upside down.



Yep. Definitely a "drop in last two years".;

Yeesh... ;-)
Quoting 528. Barefootontherocks:

Thanks for the correction. I read the '012 figure wrong. Unintentional.

Still, not over 400ppm. Only the "trend" graphs that have had it over 400ppm.

Add;



I'm confused, what point are you trying to make? Everyone has said that 2015 is important because it will be the FIRST year where the average PPM will be over 400.
Quoting 528. Barefootontherocks:

Still, not over 400ppm. Only the "trend" graphs that have had it over 400ppm.
Oh, dear:

Quoting 529. pipelines:



maybe my history is lacking, but which South American civilization collapsed hundreds of years ago due to drought?
I think it was the Myans or Aztecs.Please don't take my word for it though.
Quoting 529. pipelines:



maybe my history is lacking, but which South American civilization collapsed hundreds of years ago due to drought?


The Mayans

Also a southwestern NOAM civilization about 1300AD.. not due to Europeans or other invaders.

Probably many others.. these two were in my graycells.
Storm Barney: Army called in as Britain to be battered by floods, snow and freezing temperatures

These pictures show devastation on the streets of York after flood water swept through the city..........................The Met Office forecast gusts up to 80mph on coasts, with 70mph gusts inland.

RAC spokesman Simon Williams said: "Barney will affect much more populated areas than Abigail and rush-hour in the darkness is the worst possible time for strong winds to hit.


Link
536. SLU
smh.

Link


Why Climate Change and Terrorism Are Connected


Justin Worland @justinworland
Nov. 15, 2015

Drought in Syria has contributed to instability


Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders used the terrorist attacks in Paris to call for action to address climate change at a primary debate Saturday. But, while the plea attracted ridicule across the political spectrum, many academics and national security experts agree that climate change contributes to an uncertain world where terrorism can thrive.

U.S. military officials refer to climate change as a %u201Cthreat multiplier%u201D that takes issues like terrorism that would pose a threat to national security and exacerbates the damage they can cause. A 2014 Department of Defense report identifies climate change as the root of government instability that leads to widespread migration, damages infrastructure and leads to the spread of disease. %u201CThese gaps in governance can create an avenue for extremist ideologies and conditions that foster terrorism,%u201D the report says.

The parallels between the situation described in the government report and the situation on the ground in Syria are striking. The worst drought on record in the Middle Eastern country has created instability for farmers and threatened the food supply. At the same time, the government has struggled to hold on to power across the country in the face of militant groups and millions of Syrians have fled their homeland.

%u201CI%u2019m not telling you that the crisis in Syria was caused by climate change,%u201D Secretary of State John Kerry said in a speech last month. %u201CBut the devastating drought clearly made a bad situation a lot worse.%u201D

Indeed, a paper published in the academic journal PNAS earlier this year argues that climate change helped create instability and fighting in Syria. The Islamic State, commonly known as ISIS, arose in the country in large part due to that instability. And, now, ISIS has claimed responsibility for a number of recent terrorist attacks including this week%u2019s assault in Paris and the downing of a Russian jet over Egypt%u2019s Sinai Peninsula.
...
..nevermind

Looking forward the soaking this week. We need it. :)

Why can't we all just sit down and have some tea?
Quoting 529. pipelines:



maybe my history is lacking, but which South American civilization collapsed hundreds of years ago due to drought?
Try DuckDuckGo. Hint, more than one.

'Bye, now. peoples of the wu. Cannot handle relentless fear-mongering. I moved on long ago to solutions. Hope all of you some day will. If you believe the climate will bring such monstrous changes, if you're worried about your families and descendants, take care of yourselves and your loved ones now. Act globally by reducing your footprint and reducing demand for fossil fuel.
Quoting 530. Neapolitan:

Perhaps someone's monitor is upside down.



Yep. Definitely a "drop in last two years".;

Yeesh... ;-)
Neo, the raw data annual mean has not exceeded 400 ppm (.)
'Bye now and forever. Amen.
Add: @ 532, Neo
Quoting a daily reading when the annual mean is in discussion. SHAME on you.
See also 528. Oh, but I forget, you've never made a mistake, have you?
1st named winter storm of the season from the weather CH and we now have Winter Storm Ajax,

Link
That's all we need here..............Tea Party. :) As per the usual, Washi the ultimate instigator. :)
Ps. SLU
Do you think radical terrorists in a "happy" climate would be doing any different than they are during drought?
Don't kid yourself.

Done. Stick a fork in me!
Quoting 477. Neapolitan:

See 'No True Scotsman' fallacy.


I understand what you're pointing out, and that would be correct. However, my argument is one of intuitive reasoning that was intended to make point of respect to all peaceful individuals. I wasn't making an argument of saying that someone who claims to be a Christian or Muslim can't commit violence. To elaborate further, my argument was that the issue of separation of church and state goes beyond just that. Such that to evaluate the root of violent atrocities under the name of some cause does not not just end at separation of church and state. I hope you understand my point.
Quoting 543. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. SLU
Do you think radical terrorists in a "happy" climate would be doing any different than they are during drought?
Don't kid yourself.

Done. Stick a fork in me!


More instability which AGW is and will be bringing leads to more disaffected and displaced people which opens the door to more easily radicalizing them. It's a factor that shouldn't be discounted.
Quoting 542. DeepSeaRising:

That's all we need here..............Tea Party. :) As per the usual, Washi the ultimate instigator. :)
No I was literally talking about a real life Tea party as I have one to go to later this afternoon (not the political party) .


Can anyone explain the circulation located at 19N 86W?

It looks to be located in a similar area where comp. models are predicting tropical development.
Quoting 546. washingtonian115:

No I was literally talking about a real life Tea party as I have one to go to later this afternoon (not the political party) .


Humor Wash, humor. Enjoy your tea party! Now, good day! :)
Quoting 543. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. SLU
Do you think radical terrorists in a "happy" climate would be doing any different than they are during drought?
Don't kid yourself.

Done. Stick a fork in me!


You're right, but that doesn't mean terrible weather and changes in climate won't make the problem worse. Humans have been going to war over drought, abundant water from heavy rain, and other weather events that cause turmoil for thousands of years. There is good arguments for that conflicts in the Middle East are only enhanced by famines and droughts. These types of things can be found to trigger wars going way back in examining ancient texts from the Egyptian Empire or reading the Old Testament in the Bible for example. Climate change is accelerating and making matters worse over what people have already been fighting over.

So yes, terrorism won't go away if there wasn't climate change, but history is full of proof that such things as droughts, floods, and more, can push people over the edge and lead to more violence and war.


So yes, there's good reason to believe climate change does aggravate tensions, helping to cause more war, and no reason why it won't in the future, it will likely only get worse, because climate change impacts sure as heck won't be in decline.
Quoting 547. SouthernFlyer:



Can anyone explain the circulation located at 19N 86W?

It looks to be located in a similar area where comp. models are predicting tropical development.


Per NHC; the Upper Level Tutt cell is enhancing convection:


CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W TO A BASE
OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS...A
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 73W-86W...AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN
75W-84W...INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 10N
. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 74W PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-
80W.
I think Jedkins is arguing that people who spend too much time ruminating wind up fulminating.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 531. pipelines:



I'm confused, what point are you trying to make? Everyone has said that 2015 is important because it will be the FIRST year where the average PPM will be over 400.
Here's my point, since about '010 - anyone who looked at the "trend" graphs posted at wu by certain members, stats skewed to make a "400ppm" point, might have assumed, as what is seems the intent of the "trend" graph posters, that the annual mean CO2 at Mauna Loa has been above 400ppm long before '015. Remains to be seen, if CO2 indeed exceeds this "magic" number and if it stays there once El Nino subsides. (Mauna Loa is, after all, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean at or near the Tropic of Cancer.)

There's no point arguing with people who quote a daily reading in a discussion of annual mean, as what just happened here. Propaganda. Skewing. This type of fear-mongering related to global warming has gone on at wu for years, and it continues by exaggerating the relationship of climate change and current weather.

(.) That's it. I came here for the weather. Stayed for the company. Waste of good energy anymore.

Ps. Jed, "You're right, BUT", bad start. Is that what I said - that climate has no effect? No. Is it your interpretation of what I said? - Which was, in summary, "Radicals will be radical no matter what the weather."
(edit for clarity)
Donex10!
Quoting 554. Barefootontherocks:

Here's my point, since about '010 - anyone who looked at the "trend" graphs posted at wu by certain members, stats skewed to make a "400ppm" point, might have assumed, as what is seems the intent of the "trend" graph posters, that the annual mean CO2 at Mauna Loa has been above 400ppm long before '015. Remains to be seen, if CO2 indeed exceeds this "magic" number and if it stays there once El Nino subsides. (Mauna Loa is, after all, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean at or near the Tropic of Cancer.)

There's no point arguing with people who quote a daily reading in a discussion of annual mean, as what just happened here. Propaganda. Skewing. This type of fear-mongering related to global warming has gone on at wu for years, and it continues by exaggerating the relationship of climate change and current weather.

(.) That's it. I came here for the weather. Stayed for the company. Waste of good energy anymore.

Ps. Jed, "You're right, BUT", bad start. Is that what I said - that climate has no effect? No. Is it your interpretation of what I said? - Which was, in summary, "Radicals will be radical no matter what the weather."
(edit for clarity)
Donex10!
When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

1) The OP--me--simply stated that the weekly average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa would be above 400ppm.

2) Based on that, I noted that the December monthly average would also be above 400, and that meant the 2016 annual average would be above 400, never to fall below that mark again.

3) In your haste to "prove" me wrong, you stated--quite incorrectly--that the annual concentration hadn't risen for two years.

4) When that falsehood was pointed out to you, you--again, quite incorrectly--wrote, "Still, not over 400ppm."

5) When *that* falsehood was pointed out to you, you started complaining that stats were being "skewed", and then proceeded to go off the rails into an ad hominem-laced rant about those who pointed out your multiple erroneous statements.

Sigh...

To repeat what i wrote at the top of this comment: when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.
Quoting 467. Jedkins01:



I think your snake had parasitic worms... That's not normal behavior. Snakes are known for doing odd behavior like biting themselves or attempting to eat themselves from parasitic work infestations of the brain. It's often a very slow, sad and painful death. The infestation can take years to kill the snake. and only gradually begins to impact the behavior, so pet owners sometimes aren't aware.


I never knew that! Will go look it up.

The reality that's more likely, is that the crazy inbreeding of certain herp species to reinforce the amelanistic/albino genetics made for some really messed up outcomes (like the white tiger breeding program, as an example.) Fiberoptix (we named him because if you held his head up to the light, just exactly right, you could see the sparkle of the light through his skull from one eye to the next) also had a kinked spine, was unsellable, so we took him on as a sort of rescue, with no guarantee that he'd survive for any length of time. He lived four years, which actually wasn't bad for his situation.
Quoting 535. ColoradoBob1:

Storm Barney: Army called in as Britain to be battered by floods, snow and freezing temperatures

These pictures show devastation on the streets of York after flood water swept through the city..........................The Met Office forecast gusts up to 80mph on coasts, with 70mph gusts inland.

RAC spokesman Simon Williams said: "Barney will affect much more populated areas than Abigail and rush-hour in the darkness is the worst possible time for strong winds to hit.


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