WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Kate Races Across Atlantic; Severe Weather Threatens Midwest

By: Bob Henson 5:10 PM GMT on November 11, 2015

Even as it gets shunted quickly offstage, Hurricane Kate is putting on a respectable closing act in the central Atlantic. On Wednesday morning, Kate became the fourth hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season. Its top sustained winds remained at minimal hurricane strength, 75 mph, in the 10 am EST advisory from the National Hurricane Center. At that point, Kate was located about 500 miles northeast of Bermuda, with its center of circulation pushing east-northeast at 45 mph. Kate’s hurricane-force winds are limited to within 35 miles of its center, but tropical-storm-force winds have expanded to a radius of up to 205 miles. Sea-surface temperatures along Kate’s path are marginal for sustaining a hurricane--only about 25°C, or 77°F. However, these readings are about 2°C above average, close to record-warm values for the region and season. According to NHC’s Eric Blake, Kate is the latest hurricane on record to develop in the Northwest Atlantic north of 35°N and west of 65°W. Two previous Hurricane Kates, one in November 1985 and one in September/October 2003, each intensified to Category 3 strength.


Figure 1. GOES-East image of the North Atlantic at 1515Z (10:15 am EST) Wednesday, November 11, 2015. Labeled are Hurricane Kate (center) and Abigail (right), the first named storm in a winter-storm naming system being tested this year by the UK Met Office and Met Éireann (see below). Image credit: NOAA-NASA GOES Project.

Kate’s remnants to succeed the UK’s first named winter storm, Abigail
Strong jet-stream winds are moving Kate into the central Atlantic, with a large nontropical center of low pressure located just west of Kate (see Figure 1). As Kate loses its tropical identity over the next 24 to 48 hours, the two cyclones will merge and continue racing east-northeast, ahead of a strengthening upper-level trough in the Northwest Atlantic. The combined system could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the British Isles late this weekend.

Kate’s remnants will arrive on the heels of Abigail, the first winter storm ever to be officially named by the UK Met Office and Met Éireann. The naming system is a joint pilot project of the Met Office and Ireland’s meteorological agency. This year’s names were chosen from thousands of nominations submitted via email, Facebook, Twitter. “Over the past few winters the naming of wind storms that affected Ireland and the United Kingdom (such as the 'St Jude's day storm') has shown the benefits of establishing a protocol for the naming of mid-latitude storms,” the Met Office said in a statement on September 8. In line with the NHC’s naming practice for tropical systems in the North Atlantic, the Met Office will not use names starting with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z. Abigail is expected to bring wind gusts as high as 90 mph to far northern Scotland.

Record-warm November low for the UK
According to the UK Met Office, the United Kingdom saw the warmest November night in its recorded weather history on Tuesday, with the Northern Ireland town of Murlough scoring a overnight low on November 10 of 16.1°C (61.0°F). Murlough reached a high on Tuesday of 18.5°C (65.3°F), the day’s warmest reading in the British Isles. I have not yet been able to verify whether or not Murlough’s temperature dipped below 16.1°C before midnight Tuesday night.

The Tuesday warmth is part of a record-smashing “warm wave” bringing much of western Europe some of the mildest November temperatures ever recorded there. WU weather historian Chris Burt has more on this event, as well as the record November warmth over parts of the eastern U.S., in his latest post, published on Tuesday.


Figure 2. Convective outlook issued by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center on Wednesday morning, November 11, 2015.

Severe weather threat across parts of the Midwest
A potent autumn storm system plowing across the Great Plains is on track to trigger thunderstorms, some possibly severe, across the Missouri and Mississippi valleys on Wednesday. The greatest threat (enhanced) is across southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and western Illinois, just ahead of the surface low, but severe storms could also erupt along the cold front that extends south toward Texas from the surface low. Moisture scoured out of the Gulf of Mexico by the last cold front has had some trouble returning northward, which is tamping down this system’s potential for severe weather. Even so, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center expects a cluster of supercells to emerge in the enhanced risk area, potentially congealing into a line of storms later this evening. Tornadoes are possible during the initial supercellular phase, with the risk of damaging straight-line winds increasing as the storms push into Illinois. We will be covering today’s severe weather as it unfolds in a WU live blog.

Bob Henson



Hurricane Severe Weather Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good afternoon

It's a very muggy 84 feeling like 94, with on and off showers here on the island today.

Very busy day with six cruise ships in, plus the downtown Veterans' Day parade happened earlier. In other words, if the locals can hide and not go downtown, they don't!

Link First cam shows three of the four ships in Havensight. I might go upstairs and knock the case a bit to the right so you can see the fourth ship. Clear view of the other two ships in Crown Bay on the second cam.

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
go abigail!!!
Good Morning, Good Afternoon Dr. Henson and Dr. Masters. Happy Veterans Day to everyone. Crazy weather we have been having lately. The AHS totals so far are 11/4/2. Not bad for a Jurassic El-Nino. :P
Of course, I'm like sar & gro, do a post, blog changes.

146) Interesting matt, all our clouds in S C IL are Pacific, not gulf moisture. 147) Quite an increase in the 7 day, must be going to get a good soaking from midweek storms.

Currently 60, dew pt has definitely started rising, up to 46 from low/mid 30s yesterday. Press continues dropping, down .3" from 24 hrs ago to 29.85". Winds now from straight S, 7-10 w/ a 16 gust, so expect gulf moisture will start blending in before too long. Looks like severe focus has shifted even more N & W, but still expect some good straight lines as front come through a little later than first expected, probably around 8:30ish for us.
For all my fellow Veterans today, those gone to eternal rest, and esp to my friend whom I had the pleasure of serving with in NATO, Grothar.



AFRICA'S LARGEST UNIVERSITY - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature at the main campus of the University of South Africa in South Africa's executive capitol city, Pretoria, of 39.8 C / 103.6 F was set on November 10, 2015. The University of South Africa is Africa's largest university. There may have also been a new record all-time hottest temperature at a station in South Africa's most populous city, Johannesburg, on that day.

Link
Interesting...looks like the AHS is not done yet. Larry is the next name on the list.

Quoting 7. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Interesting...looks like the AHS is not done yet. Larry is the next name on the list.



Yep looking more like it too!

Quoting 5. Patrap:

For all my fellow Veterans today, those gone to eternal rest, and esp to my friend whom I had the pleasure of serving with in NATO, Grothar.







Thanks to all those served, and have a thoughtful Veterans Day. Remember and Honor those who did not come home, and support and help those that did.


Hurricane Kate? Wasn't expecting another hurricane this year.

Impressive how the Atlantic was able to create 4 hurricanes this year with the El Ninio... Could be a sign of what's to come next couple seasons.

Well I got this thing heading my way :-)



Murlough remained above 16.1C between the required 9pm and 9am used by UK met office. Previous Northern Ireland November min. record was only 13.9C. November record max for the province was tied at Murlough so the margin of merely 2.4C over the highest minimum underlines what a freak night this was. Welsh record also fell at Hawarden 15.7C
Quoting 10. FunnelVortex:

Hurricane Kate? Wasn't expecting another hurricane this year.

Impressive how the Atlantic was able to create 4 hurricanes this year with the El Ninio... Could be a sign of what's to come next couple seasons.




The numbers are kind of deceptive though. Other than Joaquin, I can't think of any notable storm this season. Most of them, although named, showed significant ill effects from El Nino.
Maybe this should be watched. Potential severe weather outbreak.

Thanks for the Update Bob,
There will most likely be atleast a moderate risk for severe weather starting in SE Texas late Tuesday and moving across the Southern States thru next Wednesday. This needs to be watched as this next system has the chance to be a major severe weather producer.

15N 82W

It appears that there is some convergence and rotation in this area.... Any agreement?
Quoting 14. FunnelVortex:

Maybe this should be watched. Potential severe weather outbreak.




Could be a serious tornado event early next week from Texas to FL. This next system needs to be watched as these 12Z model runs are looking mighty dangerous. This could possibly rival the 1992 November Tornado Outbreak & the November 2009 & 2013 Ohio Valley Outbreaks.
GFS & Euro even show a negative tilt to this system as it crosses the south and moves into the Ohio Valley. A lot people are going to feel this next system.
21. vis0
FROM THE PREVIOUS BLOG::

Quoting 177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NOT ANY OFFICIAL NOTICE MY EDUCATED HUNCH::
am worried for the eastern quarter of the severe warned area(s)

in other words between the green & white outlines of your #184 comment. i know that's to be the less dangerous area as compared to INSIDE the green but my crazy science sez PAY ATTEN TO ALL high % areas but also surprises from OH-near PA to MIss. - Bama



Had a great img as to blog button errors but THINGS are to on edge as to weather to repair any website issues so i'll post any comment as to that after severe odds lower to none. LETS stay focused on helping get the word out as to observed  weather that can harm people (property)
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 1241 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1225 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 1216 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TORNADO WARNING     OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1214 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1159 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Quoting 5. Patrap:

For all my fellow Veterans today, those gone to eternal rest, and esp to my friend whom I had the pleasure of serving with in NATO, Grothar.






Good day for some, bad for others, eh Pat????? Thanks for your service and all the men and women who served any time.



Quoting 11. FunnelVortex:

Well I got this thing heading my way :-)






You should be okay, unless you're in a boat on the Great Lakes. Now that wouldn't be a good idea.
Quoting 26. Sfloridacat5:



You should be okay, unless you're in a boat on the Great Lakes. Now that wouldn't be a good idea.


Storm warning for the southern parts of Lake Michigan. I hope they get all ships cleared out of there.

But it's supposed to produce TS gusts even here.
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:



Could be a serious tornado event early next week from Texas to FL. This next system needs to be watched as these 12Z model runs are looking mighty dangerous. This could possibly rival the 1992 November Tornado Outbreak & the November 2009 & 2013 Ohio Valley Outbreaks.


I wouldn't say anything until it actually happens
ECMWF long range showing a relentless negative PNA pattern continuing. Not good news for snowlovers in the East.

The GFS. 12z has a vary powerful bomb of low pressure at 384hrs. Down too 944mb It all so looks like it's a tab more S then in pass runs

Quoting 29. Drakoen:

ECMWF long range showing a relentless negative PNA pattern continuing. Not good news for snowlovers in the East.





But good news for the W
Winds continue to pick up in S C IL as pressure continues to drop, another .12" since last post to 29.73". Avg winds now have a slight E tilt up to 10-15, while top gust is now around 25. Temp holding at 60, dew pt up to 50. Can tell something on the way, glad severe chance down some, wondered when clouds were all Pacific, not Gulf. Have an updated pic matt?

Geez, b4 I forget again, Happy Veterans Day to all who served! Esp Pat Sr., in tanks in Ger in early 50s, thanks Dad!
Quoting 32. dabirds:

Winds continue to pick up in S C IL as pressure continues to drop, another .12" since last post to 29.73". Avg winds now have a slight E tilt up to 10-15, while top gust is now around 25. Temp holding at 60, dew pt up to 50. Can tell something on the way, glad severe chance down some, wondered when clouds were all Pacific, not Gulf. Have an updated pic matt?
Looks like the low is just starting to wrap up in the last frames. I'd guess the greatest severe threat will be north of you in MN and WI. All the warm air feeding the low is coming from way down in Baja, with the Gulf being blocked by the trough further south. If the Gulf was open, this would likely be a much more extensive severe event. Hard to tell exactly where the strongest jet and resulting dryline is going to set up though, so central IL is not out from under this yet.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER AND FARTHER EAST
AS STORMS MERGE INTO MORE OF A LINE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
DENISON IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
most of the models are showing another LOW near the Bahama's again..around the 19th next week...season isn't over yet?
Quoting 4. dabirds:

Of course, I'm like sar & gro, do a post, blog changes.

146) Interesting matt, all our clouds in S C IL are Pacific, not gulf moisture. 147) Quite an increase in the 7 day, must be going to get a good soaking from midweek storms.

Currently 60, dew pt has definitely started rising, up to 46 from low/mid 30s yesterday. Press continues dropping, down .3" from 24 hrs ago to 29.85". Winds now from straight S, 7-10 w/ a 16 gust, so expect gulf moisture will start blending in before too long. Looks like severe focus has shifted even more N & W, but still expect some good straight lines as front come through a little later than first expected, probably around 8:30ish for us.

That's the storm that popped thru NCal this past weekend. Looks like whatever dynamics generated our line of t-storms are persistent.
LOL, there's those people who say "Winter storms don't need to be named like hurricanes", now we have 2 countries that do it, and they're then 2 that lead in forecasting, the U.S. and now the U.K.
Quoting 34. sar2401:

Looks like the low is just starting to wrap up in the last frames. I'd guess the greatest severe threat will be north of you in MN and WI. All the warm air feeding the low is coming from way down in Baja, with the Gulf being blocked by the trough further south. If the Gulf was open, this would likely be a much more extensive severe event. Hard to tell exactly where the strongest jet and resulting dryline is going to set up though, so central IL is not out from under this yet.


Supposed to be further S, I-80 corridor. Well there's the first watch box. Thanks for the updated vapor loop, Gulf stays cut off don't see how it can be too bad. Watch and wait. Press dropped another .04" and we're up to 62, avg, gust, and dew pt continue to rise as well.
Quoting 40. dabirds:

Supposed to be further S, I-80 corridor. Well there's the first watch box. Thanks for the updated vapor loop, Gulf stays cut off don't see how it can be too bad. Watch and wait. Press dropped another .04" and we're up to 62, avg, gust, and dew pt continue to rise as well.


Seems I'll get the system after you. Showers are beginning to develop in my area
...HURRICANE KATE CONTINUES TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT...
5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 11
Location: 38.2°N 56.4°W
Moving: ENE at 44 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

As of 09:00 UTC 11/10/15, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season is 58.5575 units.
Quoting 42. GTstormChaserCaleb:

...HURRICANE KATE CONTINUES TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT...
5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 11
Location: 38.2°N 56.4°W
Moving: ENE at 44 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

As of 09:00 UTC 11/10/15, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season is 58.5575 units.



I bet 90% of that ACE is from Joaquin


HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015

Kate is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. The
cloud pattern has become asymmetric, due to very strong westerly
shear, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the
associated deep convection. In addition, stable stratocumulus
clouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation, and
there is some evidence of a developing warm front to the east of the
center. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, based on the
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The combination of continued
strong shear and the interaction with an extratropical cyclone,
located just to the west of Kate, should cause the hurricane to lose
tropical characteristics tonight. After extratropical transition,
only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic
forcing. The new intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one.

Kate continues to race east-northeastward, and the latest initial
motion estimate is about the same as before, 065/38 kt. A slowdown
is expected to begin soon, and an erratic northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is likely during the next couple of days
while Kate interacts with, and then absorbs, the extratropical low
to its west.
After Kate and the extratropical low merge Thursday
night or early Friday, a faster northeastward motion is expected.
The new track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

This forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 38.2N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 40.1N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1800Z 41.5N 48.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0600Z 42.2N 45.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1800Z 43.9N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1800Z 51.9N 25.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1800Z 57.7N 13.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 43. FunnelVortex:



I bet 90% of that ACE is from Joaquin


Joaquin was no doubt the most impressive hurricane of the ATL season but its' ACE is less than 50% of the seasonal total. From WU's Hurricane and Tropical Cylone page.
Quoting 45. StAugustineFL:



Joaquin was no doubt the most impressive hurricane of the ATL season but its' ACE is less than 50% of the seasonal total. From WU's Hurricane and Tropical Cylone page.


Still the biggest ACE producer this season.
Quoting 43. FunnelVortex:



I bet 90% of that ACE is from Joaquin
Believe it or not, Danny was my favorite hurricane of the season, how it became a major hurricane in the Main Death Region (MDR) is beyond me, especially with the environment so dry around it, but that little bugger somehow did it, it was kind of cute.
Quoting 33. GTstormChaserCaleb:


What is this suppose to show?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     DES MOINES IA - KDMX 300 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TORNADO WARNING     DES MOINES IA - KDMX 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 255 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 254 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 246 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TORNADO WARNING     DES MOINES IA - KDMX 244 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Quoting 46. FunnelVortex:



Still the biggest ACE producer this season.


It was indeed. I was only pointing out it wasn't close to having 90% of the seasons ACE.

Moving on........hope you get some good snowstorms this winter. I'm monitoring north central MO and SE IA today for severe. My family lives in the region.
Quoting 29. Drakoen:

ECMWF long range showing a relentless negative PNA pattern continuing. Not good news for snowlovers in the East.


Not surprised..The pattern had to break one way or another.I'm expecting a winter closer to 06-07.Barely any snow with perhaps one moderate snow event but mostly mild and rainy.More like Seattle weather.
Quoting 51. StAugustineFL:



It was indeed. I was only pointing out it wasn't close to having 90% of the seasons ACE.

Moving on........hope you get some good snowstorms this winter. I'm monitoring north central MO and SE IA. My family lives in the region.


Oh trust me, I think systems like the one approaching me right now is going to be the pattern for the season. We've seen a few weaker versions come through a few times already.
Quoting 41. FunnelVortex:



Seems I'll get the system after you. Showers are beginning to develop in my area
Maybe before, the way it's tilted. Clouds cleared a little last I looked, could see some blue as that dry area ahead of front starts to arrive. Go from Baja moisture to Gulf of Alaska/NE Pacific as bayfog said. Expecting mainly straight line here, but as sar said, see where dry line sets up over next hour or so.
Impressive line of severe storms. Major population areas coming into play very soon. Lots of vort with these storms, some spinners ahead of this line in NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin aren't out of the question.
Quoting 52. washingtonian115:

Not surprised..The pattern had to break one way or another.I'm expecting a winter closer to 06-07.Barely any snow with perhaps one moderate snow event but mostly mild and rainy.More like Seattle weather.
don't worry because after that in the long range GFS the ridge breaks in the east and starts getting colder. So enjoy while you can In the west because it won't last long
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:



Could be a serious tornado event early next week from Texas to FL. This next system needs to be watched as these 12Z model runs are looking mighty dangerous. This could possibly rival the 1992 November Tornado Outbreak & the November 2009 & 2013 Ohio Valley Outbreaks.


Are you still thinking 10"- 12" for Florida next week?
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:

What is this suppose to show?
Looks more like an inverted Y shaped trough, but might be the same situation that spawned Hurricane Kate.
plenty warm water blob 17 could be there awhile
Isn't this a little unusual this time of year? And if anyone says no, I'm taking names...........................




Quoting 64. Grothar:

Isn't this a little unusual this time of year? And if anyone says no, I'm taking names...........................







N...............
It's an ill wind that blows no good. The combination of the low in the Plains and a trough further south set up an ideal ducting event for the SE. That means VHF signals that normally are good for about 50 miles were being heard for over 800 miles. I was able to talk to a ham in the Bahamas through a Florida repeater, South Carolina through a Georgia repeater, and Baton Rouge through a Mississippi repeater. Pretty rare band opening, and fun to talk to people a long way away on frequencies that usually purely local.

The sun has finally come out here, and I'm up to 69 degrees. A welcome change after three damp days with highs in the 50's. I did end up with 3.62" of rain last week so the ground is finally damp. We had the thickest fog I've seen in awhile last night and this morning as a result. The severe weather should stay well north of me, and I probably won't even get rain out of it. The front should finally sweep all the damp air out by tomorrow. Friday and Saturday should have our first lows in the high 30's. Next week could be a little more concerning in terms of severe weather. If the 12z ECMWF confirms, the trough from Monday looks less highly amplified, which usually means a better chance of severe weather in the South. Certainly something to watch.
59) line trying to drop S of 70, but not setting up as typical dry line yet. Only about 45 min of sun left here, maybe an hour or so where its at. Press still dropping (29.63"), winds about same though, hit 63, dew pt up to 54. Going to get some shopping & errands done after work, then go hunker down for the evening. Should stay breezy for at least next 24 hrs, thought were supposed to drop tomorrow evening, but showing a red flag for Fri too? Still have 29 for the Sat morning low, so growing season for the tenders about to end.
Quoting 29. Drakoen:

ECMWF long range showing a relentless negative PNA pattern continuing. Not good news for snowlovers in the East.




From WXSouth...

The European model ensemble and Canadian too have an extremely impressive storm late next week for the Plains. Would be heavy rains in Texas through the Southeast and TN Valley, with heavy snow in the colder side of the storm, Rockies, then Plains, then Midwest. The details are sketchy, and its still pretty far out there. GFS did show this, but has been off and on with it. The models all are having a hard time with any buckling jet, and where it happens.
Here's a look at days 7 through 10 animation on 0z European run. The reds are warm, ridges. You can spot the big deep trough in the middle. That would bring the coldest air of the season down, eventually likely reaching the Southeast.


Link
GFS showing some cold temperatures coming to the eastern U.S. on Thanksgiving Day.
Storms are moving out quickly.

Quoting 69. capeflorida:

Bob Henson is on live chat on main page discussing present storms. Click this a the top of page.

That link is only on the main page for me. It sounds like they are wrapping up the show, saying the severe threat is diminishing. The chat won't load for me, and I still see three tornado warnings out for Iowa. Not a very worthwhile show for me.
Quoting 29. Drakoen:

ECMWF long range showing a relentless negative PNA pattern continuing. Not good news for snowlovers in the East.




And that means continued no El Nino drenching in the FL peninsula, or continued little of any rain at all as it's been. And that's why I remind people that El Nino doesn't necessarily mean extreme rain in the areas that it often does. There are still upper air patterns to contend with that ultimately dictate the weather regardless of El Nino or La Nina.

With that said, that doesn't mean this pattern won't change by winter, when El Nino's strongest rain impacts are often felt compared to Fall. If there is troughing in the east come winter, then it will cool and extremely wet in the SE/northern Gulf Coast.

If this pattern were to still be in place through the winter, it would remain abnormally dry and warm in the SE and E.
A landocane has formed.
Quoting 73. Jedkins01:



And that means continued no El Nino drenching in the FL peninsula, or continued little of any rain at all as it's been. And that's why I remind people that El Nino doesn't necessarily mean extreme rain in the areas that it often does. There are still upper air patterns to contend with that ultimately dictate the weather regardless of El Nino or La Nina.

With that said, that doesn't mean this pattern won't change by winter, when El Nino's strongest rain impacts are often felt compared to Fall. If there is troughing in the east come winter, then it will cool and extremely wet in the SE/northern Gulf Coast.

If this pattern were to still be in place through the winter, it would remain abnormally dry and warm in the SE and E.


Yes there is still plenty of time for the pattern to change particularly towards the end of the month as some of the longer range models are suggesting.
Quoting 72. sar2401:

That link is only on the main page for me. It sounds like they are wrapping up the show, saying the severe threat is diminishing. The chat won't load for me, and I still see three tornado warnings out for Iowa. Not a very worthwhile show for me.


You didn't miss much, lots of people asking if they were going to get hit, especially from Illinois.
Short late evening hello, folks, and thanks for the new entry, Bob (feel plussed once again). Weather chaos in Europe, namewise, is increasing with newly baptized "Abigail" in the British Isles, which is "Frank" in Germany and whatever in Scandinavia, lol. Ex-Kate will be Ex-Kate though (see map for tomorrow below). Hurricanes have their own dignity.



German weather sites are adorned with photos of blossoming meadows, and the man who impersonated Saint Martin on tonight's lantern parade in my city (as it is St. Martin's Day) had bare legs while sitting on his horse, ts ts (his legs weren't that beautiful, lol).

In Germany another record was broken, according to this article in Spiegel Magazin (translated):
The month of November has begun with an unusually long heat period. According to German Weather Service (DWD), in the past 134 years it has never been so mild for such a long time in this time of year.
In the southwest in Emmendingen and Freiburg for five days - from 5 to 9 November - more than 20 degrees Celsius were measured, said Andreas Friedrich from DWD on Wednesday. "There has never been such a long warm phase in November since records began in 1881."

(click image for storm reports)
Quoting 52. washingtonian115:

Not surprised..The pattern had to break one way or another.I'm expecting a winter closer to 06-07.Barely any snow with perhaps one moderate snow event but mostly mild and rainy.More like Seattle weather.


I'm not going to look at a mid November forcecast and assume it portends the winter. If we get a strong subtropical ridge in December/January that's another matter.. it would be very odd for an El Nino winter and a pattern that would result in warmth and relative dryness to at least the Mid Atlantic, possibly all of the East. Winter 2006-07 was overall warm but variable with very cold in late January and much of February and a very cold early fall looking like 1976-77 (but not verifying). That pattern broke in early December and late December through late January was extremely/incredibly warm March was also warm (well for March) and April was very cold esp. the first half. April Freezes in the upper and mid south killed emerging native hardwood foliage, a extremely rare event which some researchers believe aggravated the late spring through summer mid atlantic drought that year since upstream evaporation was much less than usual from the dead zones which were discernable on satellite well into May.

Quoting 1. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good afternoon

It's a very muggy 84 feeling like 94, with on and off showers here on the island today.

Very busy day with six cruise ships in, plus the downtown Veterans' Day parade happened earlier. In other words, if the locals can hide and not go downtown, they don't!

Link First cam shows three of the four ships in Havensight. I might go upstairs and knock the case a bit to the right so you can see the fourth ship. Clear view of the other two ships in Crown Bay on the second cam.

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Hey, Lindy ... we had the same mugginess here, but no showers at my location ... so far ... feels like a regression to September humidity-wise.

Looks like we may get some overnight rain .... hopefully it will cool things off a bit.
Thunder is starting where I am. The thunderstorms will not be as strong as what they are getting to the southwest. The impacts of the storm around here will be mostly non-convective, like high winds due to the low itself.
Quoting 80. georgevandenberghe:



I'm not going to look at a mid November forcecast and assume it portends the winter. If we get a strong subtropical ridge in December/January that's another matter.. it would be very odd for an El Nino winter and a pattern that would result in warmth and relative dryness to at least the Mid Atlantic, possibly all of the East. Winter 2006-07 was overall warm but variable with very cold in late January and much of February and a very cold early fall looking like 1976-77 (but not verifying). That pattern broke in early December and late December through late January was extremely/incredibly warm March was also warm (well for March) and April was very cold esp. the first half. April Freezes in the upper and mid south killed emerging native hardwood foliage, a extremely rare event which some researchers believe aggravated the late spring through summer mid atlantic drought that year since upstream evaporation was much less than usual from the dead zones which were discernable on satellite well into May.



There was an April Fool's Day ice storm here in East Alabama back in the '80s, 1982, I think. This El Nino reminds me very much of that one, though I am no meteorologist.
Quoting 65. Bucsboltsfan:



N...............


..............O

64. Grothar
9:36 PM GMT on November 11, 2015

Isn't this a little unusual this time of year? And if anyone says no, I'm taking names...........................''

I guess it's good that the MJO is in 3 and not 8 or 1.

Looks like something is trying to get started in the western caribbean.Reminds me of the thunderstorm mess that festered in the caribbean back in 2013 that formed Barry.
Quoting 86. washingtonian115:

Looks like something is trying to get started in the western caribbean.Reminds me of the thunderstorm mess that festered in the caribbean back in 2013 that formed Barry.


do you guys ever look at wind shear maps too see what the wind shear is like in that area

with wind shear like this i dont think we see any thing down there any time soon the caribbean is closed all soo hurricane season is now closed once kate gets out of here




wind shear is 40 too 50kt or better your not going too get any thing down there at this time of year
Quoting 83. Alagirl:


There was an April Fool's Day ice storm here in East Alabama back in the '80s, 1982, I think. This El Nino reminds me very much of that one, though I am no meteorologist.


1982-83 was the first of two documented 20'th century El Ninos. Spring 1982 was not an El Nino period. It did feature some exciting weather, in particular a winter intensity blizzard April 6 in New Jersey and New York. My location in Princeton got 4-6", points just to the west got over a foot and it wasn't a spring structure storm.. it was cold with true arctic air behind it, rare in April. The max temp on the mostly sunny April 7 following the storm was 28F.
One of the most intense arctic outbreaks of my life drove down Jan 10-11 and a second Jan 17.
Quoting 88. washingtonian115:



Here Taz :) This usually works when women are pms'ing :)

I am offended by this off-topic statement, however, I must admit they work well even when women are not in that state of mind.
Quoting 78. barbamz:

Short late evening hello, folks, and thanks for the new entry, Bob (feel plussed once again). Weather chaos in Europe, namewise, is increasing with newly baptized "Abigail" in the British Isles, which is "Frank" in Germany and whatever in Scandinavia, lol. Ex-Kate will be Ex-Kate though (see map for tomorrow below). Hurricanes have their own dignity.



German weather sites are adorned with photos of blossoming meadows, and the man who impersonated Saint Martin on tonight's lantern parade in my city (as it is St. Martin's Day) had bare legs while sitting on his horse, ts ts (his legs weren't that beautiful, lol).

In Germany another record was broken, according to this article in Spiegel Magazin (translated):
The month of November has begun with an unusually long heat period. According to German Weather Service (DWD), in the past 134 years it has never been so mild for such a long time in this time of year.
In the southwest in Emmendingen and Freiburg for five days - from 5 to 9 November - more than 20 degrees Celsius were measured, said Andreas Friedrich from DWD on Wednesday. "There has never been such a long warm phase in November since records began in 1881."



At least in autumn, trees don't break dormancy. Most species there (and here in North American midlatitudes) require some winter chilling, typically a few hundred to about 1400 hours below 5C. Intense late winter/early spring warm spells can be devastating when trees begin budding only to get killed back by subsequent hard freezes
This is the second thunderstorm event we have had here this month. This is very unusual because we usually stop getting thunderstorms by the end of October unless it's thundersnow or something. But to have two thunderstorm events in November so far? It's strange.
Quoting 88. washingtonian115:



Here Taz :) This usually works when women are pms'ing :)
You need to stop .... now I am thinking about ice cream ....

:o)

Course, that could be heat-induced ....


Pray for Texas!
Quoting 65. Bucsboltsfan:



N...............


Bucs, you're funny!
Quoting 81. BahaHurican:

Hey, Lindy ... we had the same mugginess here, but no showers at my location ... so far ... feels like a regression to September humidity-wise.

Looks like we may get some overnight rain .... hopefully it will cool things off a bit.


Hiya Baha

Well, I miscalculated on the Veteran's Day parade. I thought it was this morning but it ended up being about 4:00 this afternoon. So if you calculated the number of passengers on five .... FIVE of the six cruise ships all trying to get back to their ships, the locals all trying to get to the parade route and those of us trying to make it through downtown, suffice it to say, this island was a .... (am too polite to use the island phrase)..... a massive traffic jamb!!

Anyway, I would just like to say, as a vet myself, I salute all of you who were or are still serving in the many countries that honour "Remembrance Day" or "Veteran's Day" or.... I personally wear my poppy in remembrance to all....

Lindy
Quoting 92. GeoffreyWPB:




So?
Woke up this morning to the first weather related power outage i've seen in years
half the deciduous trees haven't decided yet. though most years they would have done so about 4 ~ 6 weeks ago.
add to that, a nice heavy combination of rain, graupel, and snow and gusty winds seems to have knocked out the only above ground residential feed left in the city (most everything has been moved underground years ago except for the hi tension feeders) that managed to shut down half of town for almost the entire morning.
and I thought we had gotten rid of telephone and power poles years ago


A cold front will approach the region toward evening. Weak showers are expected today in advance of the front. As the front nears this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. A few of the storms could become strong to severe northeast of a Bryan to Cleveland line if a strong inversion weakens. Since the front is moving a steady pace, heavy rain is not expected.
Quoting 96. Grothar:



Bucs, you're funny!


I just couldn't go all the way.
Quoting 88. washingtonian115:



Here Taz :) This usually works when women are pms'ing :)


Thx, I gained 5 pounds by just looking at that picture.

If this happens, it'l make for a good thanksgiving dish. Not to mention good snuggling weather to watch Christmas specials on T.V.!

If image doesn't show, here's a Link.
I think I see the problem with the plus button now .... it's missing from the blog post itself today ....
Think we'll have the L storm next week??
Quoting 17. SouthernFlyer:

15N 82W

It appears that there is some convergence and rotation in this area.... Any agreement?


16N 82W

Circulation becoming more evident...

Quoting 107. Grothar:

Think we'll have the L storm next week??
Looks possible.
Quoting 107. Grothar:

Think we'll have the L storm next week??



nop hurricane season is closed for good after kate
Just did my 129th update of the Atlantic Hurricane season, mention Kate and the disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean. Meanwhile sitting up here in southeast Michigan waiting for high winds from that wicked midwest frontal cyclone....
Quoting 107. Grothar:

Think we'll have the L storm next week??
DOOM!!!Ridge and Larry. I saw this earlier.

Pass 😎


Hmm. Seems the worst storms will be to the north of the Houston metro as usual, if I'm reading this right.

Or am I?
Quoting 90. Alagirl:


I am offended by this off-topic statement, however, I must admit they work well even when women are not in that state of mind.


I'm offended that you're offended. Now shut up and eat before I bring you something deep fried and smothered in chocolate. :D
Mini Blob. I've been watching this one.






Strange. The UK uses the metric system for temperature but the imperial system for wind speed.

Poll. Is Kate the end of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? Yes or No?
Quoting 118. TheBigBanana:

Strange. The UK uses the metric system for temperature but the imperial system for wind speed.

Poll. Is Kate the end of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? Yes or No?


I think we might squeeze out at least one more. Possibly next week.
Quoting 118. TheBigBanana:

Strange. The UK uses the metric system for temperature but the imperial system for wind speed.

Poll. Is Kate the end of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? Yes or No?


We are all over the place . . . we sell petrol in litres but drive in miles . . . people will still use inches and feet but then switch to millimetres and metres . . . but we are gradually, over time, sliding towards metrification!
Quoting 118. TheBigBanana:

Strange. The UK uses the metric system for temperature but the imperial system for wind speed.

Poll. Is Kate the end of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? Yes or No?

I'll give a speculative no, considering it is in some relevant respects only half October..
For those who are still interested, here an Yemen update:

Yemen: Cyclones Chapala and Megh Flash Update 8 | 11 November 2015
Report from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Published on 11 Nov 2015

Key messages
- An area of tropical low pressure, making its way to the Arabian Sea, does not seem to be forming into a tropical storm for the moment.
- The number of people killed in Socotra has risen to 18, bringing the total number of people reported killed by the two cyclones to 26 in all affected areas of Yemen.
- The UN and its partners continue to deliver much needed supplies to the affected areas and are continuing to distribute food, tents, non-food items and safe water in Abyan, Shabwah and Hadramaut governorates.

Situation Overview
Tropical Cyclone Megh dissipated over mainland Yemen on 10 November, causing no significant rain or wind. The area of tropical low pressure, making its way to the Arabian Sea, does not seem to be forming into a tropical storm for the moment.
Additional reports from Socotra Island, suggest 18 people have been killed, bringing the total number of people reported killed by the two cyclones to 26 in all affected areas of Yemen. Local authorities are still reporting six people missing in Socotra and over 500 houses completely destroyed, with estimates that up to 3,000 houses may have been partially damaged. The number of displaced on Socotra is still estimated at 3,000 families (18,000 individuals), with part of the population of Abdo Al Kori, a small island off Socotra, evacuated to Hadramaut. Several food warehouses have been damaged by flooding, most roads are still closed and there are fuel shortages and no electricity. Despite improvements in the weather, many fishermen are unable to go out to sea due to extensive damage to boats. Local authorities and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have indicated that there are significant needs in the south of the island, and have highlighted fuel, non-food items (NFIs), tents and medical supplies as overall priorities.
A lack of communication - the telephone network is mostly down - and access to all the affected areas, including Abyan, Shabwa, Hadramaut, Al Mahara and Socotra, have made it difficult for the humanitarian community to determine the total number of people in need as a result of the two cyclones. In Shabwah, WFP estimates that the number of people affected by the cyclone could reach 18,000. This is in addition to those already in need of some form of humanitarian assistance from the ongoing crisis. This includes over 440,000 people in Shabwah and almost one million people in Hadramaut. There are also reports from a few local NGOs that some families are starting return to their homes, with a reduction in the number of displaced sheltering in public buildings. As communication networks in the affected areas improve and assessments by implementing partners are finalized, it will be possible to obtain a more complete picture in terms of humanitarian needs and damage to houses and infrastructure.


Have a nice day, everybody. Central Germany weather is still fair but rain in the forecast for the next days (yesss!) which is very good for nature and the very low river levels but bad for the refugee thing. I hope our British members will cover Abigail/Frank as I don't have much time in the days ahead.


Rhine with near record low water level at Bonn. Vessels already had to reduce their cargo and have a hard time to navigate in the narrow fairway with a bit deeper waters. Some ferries had to suspend their service.
Quoting 110. Tazmanian:




nop hurricane season is closed for good after kate
You said the vary same thing after the "J" storm.
No. I could see at least one more.

Quoting 118. TheBigBanana:

Strange. The UK uses the metric system for temperature but the imperial system for wind speed.

Poll. Is Kate the end of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? Yes or No?
Quoting 112. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM!!!Ridge and Larry. I saw this earlier.

Pass 😎



Fall? What the heck is fall??

Quoting 101. WXColorado:

Woke up this morning to the first weather related power outage i've seen in years
half the deciduous trees haven't decided yet. though most years they would have done so about 4 ~ 6 weeks ago.
add to that, a nice heavy combination of rain, graupel, and snow and gusty winds seems to have knocked out the only above ground residential feed left in the city (most everything has been moved underground years ago except for the hi tension feeders) that managed to shut down half of town for almost the entire morning.
and I thought we had gotten rid of telephone and power poles years ago

Europe embarrasses the utility companies of America. The Europeans do not suffer the silliness of trees bringing down vital power lines. They engineered that out of existence. We Americans suffer from a diabolical cheapness. Our infrastructure is a national embarrassment and a global joke.
The Northwest is going to get a hard rain hit.



I'll be gone most of the day. Someone please ask he Doc or Mr. Henson what they think of another TS next week.

See you all later.
Good Morning. Not near a television today so afraid to ask how fast the winds are whipping around the low in the Great Lakes this morning:

Central Great Lakes sector loop




Dr. Masters lives in Michigan; I would imagine that he has a personal weather station in the yard with a wind gauge and will report back to us later.................................
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2015 - 12Z Sat Nov 14 2015

...Heavy rain possible over the Pacific Northwest and parts of the
Northern Rockies...

...Heavy snow possible over the northern most Cascades and Northern
Rockies...

A storm over the Great Lakes will move eastward to the Canadian Maritimes
by Friday evening. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of the associated front from the Great Lakes to parts of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday
morning into Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, the rain along the
front will end while the rain will continue over Great Lakes eastward to
the Northeast through Friday evening. Additionally, light snow will
develop over parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. In addition,
light rain will develop over parts of the southern tip of Florida through
Friday.

Meanwhile, onshore flow off the Pacific will stream moisture into the
Pacific Northwest through Friday. The moisture will aid in developing
rain over the Northwest Coast that will spread inland to parts of the
Northern Rockies by Thursday evening. The snow levels will rise as the
moisture pushes inland. Snow accumulations will be limited to the
northern most Cascades and Northern Rockies through Friday. The rain will
continue over Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies through Friday
evening, too.
Quoting 108. SouthernFlyer:



15N 82W

Circulation becoming more evident...



N
Looking real Blobby now... Seems a mid level COC is persisting at 15.2N 82W....
Other than the snow in the West and the low over the Great Lakes, no severe weather forecast for today which is a good thing: with the exception of the winds behind the low (both sustained and gusts) around the Lakes




The southeast will be a hot spot next week for severe weather.
Quoting 121. DraytonDave:



We are all over the place . . . we sell petrol in litres but drive in miles . . . people will still use inches and feet but then switch to millimetres and metres . . . but we are gradually, over time, sliding towards metrification!


After being in the UK for 15 years, I still get muddled LOL I have a measurement converter app on my phone and bring a measuring tape when going to buy anything distance bearing. So many things are only labelled with cm or mm, and I just can't see in my mind, how they relate to inches in size, which is what I think of for length. Only thing I can do, because of sewing, is I know a meter is about the same as a yard, which is about 3 feet.

My daughter was 3 when we moved here, so when I mentioned temps to her, she wants it in C'. Having 0 for freezing and 100 for boiling makes sense....but in between I still have problems LOL All I know, is once it gets over 20'c, I start feeling too warm.


Otherwise, today is the first day it has really felt like fall. And a perfect fall day to me... partly cloudy, cool and crisp. Sadly, am back off to bed though, had my early uni class after late night at work...and another late night at work later, so a short but sweet enjoyment of my fav weather!
144. beell
Quoting 137. weathermanwannabe:

Dr. Masters lives in Michigan; I would imagine that he has a personal weather station in the yard with a wind gauge and will report back to us later.................................



Most of the winds this morning are on the backside of the surface low. 30 knots gusting 40-45 knots as the pressure gradient tries to balance.




(click for larger image)
144. beell
8:02 AM EST on November 12, 2015

Have to drive carefully in those affected areas this morning on the way to work/school (and particularly the higher profile cars/trucks/buses I would imagine).

Thanks for the info.
146. MahFL
Quoting 118. TheBigBanana:

Strange. The UK uses the metric system for temperature but the imperial system for wind speed.

Poll. Is Kate the end of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? Yes or No?


Most people in the UK use both C and F, using 16C = 61F as a benchmark.
Quoting 131. rayduray2013:


Europe embarrasses the utility companies of America. The Europeans do not suffer the silliness of trees bringing down vital power lines. They engineered that out of existence. We Americans suffer from a diabolical cheapness. Our infrastructure is a national embarrassment and a global joke.


We're all commies for the diabolical welfare state. We don't own guns, we pay taxes, we get infrastructure and reliable electricity, how can this be fair? The US system of everyone for his own and Gawd for all is much honester. You should be happy with the freedom of rampant random power outages.

(to be fair, Europe has its glitches too, of course. Increasing number of power outages thanks to brute heat, for instance).

(note - I 'liked' my own post. Silly accident, I want to like a reply on it)
Quoting 118. TheBigBanana:



Poll. Is Kate the end of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? Yes or No?

I don't know, but I saw her walking to the opera house this morning!

The high winds are here, just west of Chicago, not damaging winds, but scary nonetheless. Some gusts up to 60 mph. Flights are being cancelled at O'hare airport. Garbage cans and solid wooden benches are knocked over and blowing around. It's a good day to stay inside. The power went out at about 8:00 a.m., but came back on within minutes, thank goodness. We had 1.25" rain. We needed it.
Looks like La Nina, and warm AMO for 2016, Could be interesting times in the tropics for the next few years. Look at the JAMSTEC models, for more info.
Quoting 151. ChiThom:

The high winds are here, just west of Chicago, not damaging winds, but scary nonetheless. Some gusts up to 60 mph. Flights are being cancelled at O'hare airport. Garbage cans and solid wooden benches are knocked over and blowing around. It's a good day to stay inside. The power went out at about 8:00 a.m., but came back on within minutes, thank goodness. We had 1.25" rain. We needed it.


Unfortunately downstate drought conditions continue to worsen, especially over the last two months, just here locally I have only dumped an inch and a half of rainfall over the last two months. Climatologically we usually see 6-8" in that time frame and this is all on top of an already dry season that was ongoing here. Hopefully the rains come next week as forecasted. Winds have been brutal down here since yesterday afternoon. Consistently in the 25-30 mph range and gusting higher.

Quoting 148. cRRKampen:


We're all commies for the diabolical welfare state. We don't own guns, we pay taxes, we get infrastructure and reliable electricity, how can this be fair? The US system of everyone for his own and Gawd for all is much honester. You should be happy with the freedom of rampant random power outages.

(to be fair, Europe has its glitches too, of course. Increasing number of power outages thanks to brute heat, for instance).
Oh, yah sure, I'd like to be a commie for the welfare state, but some corporate CEOs own America and don't give us that option. We got to waste our money on the Empire project.

We put better infrastructure into NE Afghanistan than we do into New England. The rate of corruption is higher, so the sociopathic CEOs make a better profit!
Thanks for all of the reports from the Great Lakes area; the SPC storm reports do not cover post-storm wind/gradient issues so the last 3 hours are "blank"....................Then compare it to the reports from yesterday below when the front actually come through........................

today Reports Graphic


yesterday Reports Graphic
Correcting for my post below, the SPC chart specifies "high winds" as more than 65 knots...........If they get such a measurable gust somewhere in the area, it should show up as a high wind gust report later today.
Current wind warnings out of the Grand Rapids NWS office:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
340 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015


MIZ037-043-050-056>059-064>067-071>074-1 21645-
/O.CON.KGRR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T1000Z/
MASON-OCEANA-MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-A LLEGAN-BARRY-
EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...HART...MUSKEGON...JENISON...
GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HOLLAND...HASTINGS...
CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK...
JACKSON
340 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...

* SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY.

* HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH SOUTH ROADS MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTY.

Map of Forecast Area




Good morning WU. The weather today in Seattle and the PNW should be interesting starting this afternoon. So far I am under a wind advisory for steady winds 25 and 35mph, with gusts to 50. I am also under an aerial flood watch for heavy rainfall, especially in the mountains where 8-10 inches is forecast to fall as rain up to 6000ft. This will result in melting the snow at these elevations, thus compounding the flood threat. The storm should continue through tomorrow into Saturday morning. I'll post more later today after work, and when I'm on my computer and not my phone. I hope everyone has a good, safe day!
Here is the erosion-flooding issue related to the Westerly winds on the East side of the Lake pushing the waters on the coast:


LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

DEFAULT OVERVIEW SECTION
MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-121645-
/O.CON.KGRR.LS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T1000Z/
MASON-OCEANA-MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-
336 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH BECOMING
WEST.

* WAVES...10 TO 15 FEET.

* IMPACTS...SEVERE BEACH AND DUNE EROSION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WATER WILL BE PUSHED MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMAL
DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT ALONG THE LAKE. RESIDENTS ON OR NEAR THE SHORE IN THE
WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Quoting 150. capeflorida:


I don't know, but I saw her walking to the opera house this morning!




Mrs. Grothar isn't going to be happy you used her image without her permission!
Quoting 156. weathermanwannabe:

Correcting for my post below, the SPC chart specifies "high winds" as more than 65 knots...........If they get such a measurable gust somewhere in the area, it should show up as a high wind gust report later today.

Thanks for the correction.
Guys out in the water surfing Lake Michigan in Sheboygan.
Link
Click on beach webcam to get the live feed to load. Wait for the camera to turn towards the beach and you'll see the surfers out in the water.
Wow the new NHC site went all-in for the mobile user. I love it.

NHC
Contrary to what some people think on this blog about us going back to a quiet era of Atlantic hurricane activity, I still believe we are in the active cycle. There's no way we would have made it to 11 named storms given the super strength of this El Nino.
Really hoping this verifies by the weekend and brings some relief to S Florida's Summer like conditions.
Quoting 163. VAbeachhurricanes:

Wow the new NHC site went all-in for the mobile user. I love it.

NHC


i hate it it makes every thing too big
For what it's worth, the fall of 2006 was extremely warm in most of Europe esp the northern parts and this warmth was notable for duration through most of the season, not so much for individual warm periods.

Quoting 131. rayduray2013:


Europe embarrasses the utility companies of America. The Europeans do not suffer the silliness of trees bringing down vital power lines. They engineered that out of existence. We Americans suffer from a diabolical cheapness. Our infrastructure is a national embarrassment and a global joke.



Meanwhile Europeans are hardening their power grid against EMP and solar storm events. The U.S... looking into it.. maybe later.
Quoting 165. capeflorida:

Really hoping this verifies by the weekend and brings some relief to S Florida's Summer like conditions.



Would like FLA gardeners to comment. My take on this November heat (sitting cooly up in DC though even here its too warm for those cozy woodstove fires I enjoy in the winter third of the year), is that November heat is much harder on plants than June heat because the days are much shorter, nights longer and insolation is less. I found this to be the situation in October/November in Tallahassee and additionally, even in July, the kind of long duration heat my DC garden tolerated , caused tomatoes and corn to fail down there because of the shorter days down there.

80F means in November in Central FL would, I suspect be enough to cause a lot of fruit set failures and poor quality fruit. 80F means and greens don't even work in the same sentence. DC JULY mean is 79.2F.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I like the October-November heat in Florida because it extends my coastal inshore fishing season (the Fall bite) a little longer before the the first real cold fronts finally cool down the waters below 65 and the relevant fish (coastal trout and redfish) head up into the rivers and creeks for Winter. I wade fish so I don't chase them up but tons of fisherman (up here in the Florida Big Bend) kayak up the creeks/rivers in the dead of winter and get them there. In my case, once true winter hits the local waters, I take off until the Spring when the temps creep back up to 70 plus.

I wade fished yesterday morning near Apalachicola and it was beautiful; only person out there at 7:00 am, foggy, water like glass, and tons of fish around on the flat with the mild temps (hit my 5 slot trout limit in 2 hours).... But no Redfish............... :( With these mild temps, it should be good for about another 2-3 weeks.
The NHC isn't even giving Grothar's Carriblob an X of any sort. I think it is really trying to surprise, and the shear isn't too high if it stays closer to the coast.

The large swath of moisture in the tropical Atlantic... very out of season for that to come spilling out of Africa... remnants of Chapala?
Quoting 154. rayduray2013:


Oh, yah sure, I'd like to be a commie for the welfare state, but some corporate CEOs own America and don't give us that option. We got to waste our money on the Empire project.

We put better infrastructure into NE Afghanistan than we do into New England. The rate of corruption is higher, so the sociopathic CEOs make a better profit!


I know.
I was actually advertising for Europe, somewhat obliquely done I'm afraid.
To me, to us Europeans, a number of aspects of the USA come across as barely evolved after the Stone Age.
Quoting 151. ChiThom:

The high winds are here, just west of Chicago, not damaging winds, but scary nonetheless. Some gusts up to 60 mph. Flights are being cancelled at O'hare airport. Garbage cans and solid wooden benches are knocked over and blowing around. It's a good day to stay inside. The power went out at about 8:00 a.m., but came back on within minutes, thank goodness. We had 1.25" rain. We needed it.


Here in Fallon, we call that "March."

:)

(n.b. Bugs me that my mom's birthday had to be during the time of year when crosswinds down 395 add 5 miles to my trip meter. I mean literally. 495 miles, except in March. But when your mom crosses her 90's, you damned well better show up for each and every one.)


Should Houstonians quake with fear?