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Kate Strengthens in Atlantic; Megh Dissipates in Yemen

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:52 PM GMT on November 10, 2015

Tropical Storm Kate is nearing hurricane status well east of Florida and Georgia as it begins sweeping into the open Atlantic. As of 10:00 am EST Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center pegged Kate’s top sustained winds at 60 knots (70 mph), based on peak surface winds of 61 kt from Hurricane Hunter data collected via the SFMR radiometer. Kate is a compact storm, with tropical storm force winds extending only 80 miles from its center, but its structure is considerably better than on Monday, with a symmetric core of strong convection (showers and thunderstorms) and some banding on its east side. The effects of increasing southwesterly wind shear (15 – 20 knots) are becoming evident, as Kate takes on the comma shape common to tropical cyclones undergoing subtropical/extratropical transition.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Kate.

Even as Kate moves northeast at an increasingly rapid clip--more than 20 mph--the storm is passing over waters that are near record-warm levels for the time of year, at 1°C to 2°C above the seasonal average. Later on Tuesday, Kate’s track will take the storm over waters cooler than the threshold for tropical development of 26°C (79°F), hastening its extratropical transition. Phase space diagrams from Robert Hart and Jenni Evans (Florida State University) show Kate morphing into an asymmetric warm-core cyclone over the next couple of days. At the same time, Kate’s peak winds should continue to increase and expand, powered by the strong upper-level jet stream that will soon envelop the storm. Kate is likely to become a hurricane later on Tuesday or early Wednesday before going post-tropical by later in the week.

Kate is the Atlantic’s most intense tropical cyclone on record for November during the five years since 1950 with strong El Niño conditions present in October-December: 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965. Only one other named system was observed during those Novembers: 1972’s Subtropical Storm Delta. See our Monday post for more on Kate’s significance as the 11th named system of the year.

Other Kates in Atlantic hurricane history
Kate shares the name of 1985’s Hurricane Kate, which produced the latest US landfall of any hurricane on record. Kate brushed by Key West and moved into the eastern Gulf, where it peaked as a major hurricane, with top sustained winds of 120 mph. On the afternoon of November 21, Kate made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL, bearing sustained winds of 100 mph. Kate was a destructive storm, causing an estimated 15 fatalities and $700 million of damage in 1985 US dollars. Another Hurricane Kate also became a Category 3, this time in early October 2003, but it spun harmlessly over the central Atlantic, finally taking a swipe at Newfoundland near the end of its life.

Tropical Cyclone Megh makes a second landfall in Yemen and dissipates
Tropical Cyclone Megh penetrated deep into the Arabian Sea's narrow Gulf of Aden to make an improbable landfall in western Yemen near Aden at approximately 6 pm EDT Monday evening. At landfall, Megh was a rapidly weakening tropical storm with top winds of 40 mph. Megh rapidly dissipated after landfall, spreading only a few heavy rain showers over western Yemen. Satellite data suggests that Megh dumped very little rain over western Yemen, and only minor flooding and damage likely resulted. That's not the case on Yemen's Socotra Island, where Megh made a direct hit as a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds on Sunday, bringing a second round of devastation to an island hard-hit the previous week by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chapala.

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Magh has pushed the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the North Indian Ocean in 2015 to 39.3 ACE units. Since 1990, only 1999 (44 ACE) and 2007 (46 ACE) have had more. An average season has just 18 ACE units.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Megh over western Yemen at 07:25 UTC November 10, 2015. Megh made landfall near Aden, Yemen about 7 hours previous to this image, with top winds near 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forty years ago today: the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald
The “gales of November” immortalized in a hit record struck 40 years ago this week, on November 10, 1975, when a fierce midlatitude storm hammered Lake Superior and sank the US freighter SS Edmund Fitzgerald, killing all 29 crew members. Fans of the Canadian balladeer Gordon Lightfoot already know many particulars of the story, although “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald”--which hit #2 on the U.S. Billboard chart in 1976--was not a precisely accurate retelling of the disaster. The ship was heading east across Lake Superior with a load of iron ore pellets when the unexpectedly intense storm struck early on the 10th, packing northeast winds of 52 knots (60 mph). As the Edmund Fitzgerald headed toward the east end of Lake Superior through the day, the surface low passed close by, throwing the ship into a “hurricane westwind,” as Lightfoot put it. By late afternoon, the ship’s systems were failing, and the last transmission from the Fitzgerald reached a nearby ship at 7:10 pm. The ship’s wreckage was found over the next several days, although none of the victims were ever recovered.


Figure 3. A 1971 photo of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald. It remains the largest ship known to have sunk in the Great Lakes. Image credit: Greemars/Wikimedia Commons.

A CIMSS Satellite Blog post on Tuesday included satellite imagery from 1975 depicting the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald. WU weather historian Christopher Burt included this storm in a roundup of Upper Midwest weather events that all happened on November 10. In a fascinating Weatherwise article, Steve Ackerman and John Knox related the Edmund Fitgerald storm’s particulars in the context of Gordon Lightfoot’s lyrics. The website Songfacts has a variety of interesting tidbits about the song itself. Apparently Lightfoot was motivated to write “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” in part because the ship’s name was repeatedly misspelled in a magazine article.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a new Monday afternoon post, Stronger Storm Systems and Wild Model Forecasts.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 4. Surface weather map valid at 12Z (6:00 am CDT) on Monday, November 10, 1975. The Great Lakes storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald later in the day was then located over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The storm’s central pressure later fell to 975 millibars. Image credit: CIMSS Weather Blog.


Hurricane Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What happened to the like button? Thanks Doc and Mr.Henson.
Thanks for the Update on Kate; nice to see her moving away from the US.

Now keeping an eye on the potential for severe weather (and updates from SPC between today and tomorrow) for the mid-west. All looks clear at the moment, and convection free in the mid-west, but the low/jet is slowly pushing East from the Rockies; have to see how much flow comes up from the Gulf and whether a strong squall line is able to form as well tomorrow as the low/front move across the plains:









For old times sake

Strongest Hurricane recorded, captured it on WU app on phone.

Classic

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
653 am CST Tuesday Nov 10 2015

..sounding discussion...
Despite some clearing yesterday the cloud deck redeveloped across
the area shortly after sunset. The inversion is just as strong as
yesterday at 15 f. The cloud deck is a bit lower than yesterday
with saturated conditions 600 to 2000 feet... but slightly more
shallow as drier air is present just above. The clouds should mix
out more quickly today... but will be persistent for much of the
morning. Precipitable water is below average at 0.74 inches. Winds are calm at the
surface... westerly above and become northwest aloft. Peak wind is 70 kts at
200 mb.

Krautmann

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 324 am CST Tuesday Nov 10 2015/


Short term... 

fog is going to be the biggest headache. Ceilings have lowered to
around 300ft in several places but have stalled at that level.
Temperatures are the same at the surface and cloud level so there is no
reason that the deck couldn't fall to the surface. Temperatures have risen in
a few places as well preventing ceilings from falling any farther
than about 1k feet. Temperatures may also begin to rise or at least level
off as cloud depth thickens a bit as the inversion lowers at the
base. Will watch this toward daylight. Wednesday will be a little more
conducive for fog since there should be little cloud cover and a
shallow ceiling of about 500ft. This should help produce some
inversion fog which will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Cloud
cover will be back for the day Wednesday and Thursday but possibly clear
on Friday behind a cold front.

The cold front is expected to move through Thursday morning. The surface
low rapidly moves NE into eastern Canada causing the southern end
of the front to stretch and slow. The area of high pressure behind
the front will not be slowing at all and will overtake the front
on its southern end causing a ridge bridge. This simply causes the
inversion provided by the high to bridge the front cutting off the
surface instability. This will be evident as the line of sh/ts starts
moving through our area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Basically...as
it moves through...sh/ts will begin to decay and will all but
dissipated by the time the line gets to the eastern side of our
County Warning Area. But the cool dry air will still move through along with the
high.

Long term...
by the start of the new work week moisture will begin to flow back
into the area bringing fog chances back again along with rain
chances. With the surface low far south by next Tue/Wed...this system
may have a little more potential toward severe weather.
Quoting 2. washingtonian115:

What happened to the like button? Thanks Doc and Mr.Henson.


It's still there--but now over on the right-hand side. We moved the various share options to the left-hand side, where readers of many other news sites are accustomed to finding those buttons.
An article in the StL Post-Dispatch referencing the 40th of the Ed F sinking contained an AP article from '75 that at the end referenced a Nov. 11, 1913 "hurricane" (remnants?) on Lake Huron that sunk 19 vessels and took 254 lives. Any info on that storm and why they would have referred to it as a hurricane? Another storm on the 11th in '40 sank 3 on L Michigan and took 57 souls. Looks like it may be an interesting 11th here in S C IL, Tor Con of 4 for us, NE MO & SE IA.
Yes, the song took artistic license. The song does reference the 29 bells that rang for each member on the Fitzgerald, but one more bell rang for all lives lost on the Great Lakes as well. The ship was to unload first in Detroit, then head empty to Cleveland for the winter.

This link has the radio chatter between the ship following the Fitzgerald, the Arthur Anderson and the Coast Guard. www.shipwreckmuseum.com/edmundfitzgerald
Thanks doks!
Quoting 6. BobHenson:


It's still there--but now over on the right-hand side. We moved the various share options to the left-hand side, where readers of many other news sites are accustomed to finding those buttons.

Having a short look while still in office (with mandatory IE, huh): Cannot see the "like" or "plus" button on the right side too - only the red "flag" button. Should I ....? ;-)
Feel plussed anyway. Thanks for the new post!
Quoting 12. barbamz:


Having a short look while still in office (with mandatory IE, huh): Cannot see the "like" or "plus" button on the right side too - only the "flag" button. Should I ....? ;-)


I'm using Chrome 46.0.2490.80 and it's not showing up.
Thanks Bob and Jeff...
Quoting 11. Grothar:



DIVALI GREETINGS, to all.

It's the celebration of Light over Darkness, and I think we can all agree that we need more of that !

Rainy, cloudy Divali Holiday, but that's just fine !
I don't understand this...why downgrade to Slight Risk and move the Enhanced Risk farther north?



SPC AC 101743

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN
MO...AND CENTRAL IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS TO NORTHEAST TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO EAST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
DURING DAY 2...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING EXPECTED WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FROM WEST/NORTHWEST KS AT 12Z WED
INTO IA BY 12/00Z AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THU. A
TRAILING COLD WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MO...AR TO
DEEP SOUTH TX BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS WED NIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
GIVEN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE/DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO BE
WEAK ACROSS THE RISK AREAS DURING DAY 2...THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO IA/NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MUCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG POSSIBLE WITH NORTHERN EXTENT INCLUDING
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION
AREA...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A RATHER NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 500
J/KG. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SUSTAINED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEB...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IA...NORTHERN MO INTO IL...AS STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT 500-MB JET SPREADS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THESE AREAS LATE WED MORNING INTO THE EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH SOUTHERN MO TO
WESTERN KY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD
FRONT FAVORS DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS A CATEGORY 2 SEVERE
RISK...AS WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO BE
SUSTAINED FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EPISODE.

FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INITIAL DAY 2 ENH AND
SLGT RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED WESTWARD SOME...AS A PRECEDING
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
STRONGER WINDS TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY/LOWER TN VALLEY...
STRONGEST INSTABILITY MAY BE CONFINED TO EAST TX...LA INTO SOUTHERN
AR WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. POOR LAPSE RATES AND
WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LESS ACROSS
EASTERN OK...WITH MODELS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN AR TO EAST TX BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2015
Looking to the West across the vort chart across the US, here is the current low level vort north of Texas and the huge upper level system currently draped from California to Nevada pushing east. Have to see how all this gels tomorrow along with the jet stream:


Here is the current broad rotation located which appears to be centered in Nevada slowly pushing east:
Pacific Northwest sector loop

thanks for the new blog. i found a red flag but no like button.
Quoting 8. dabirds:

Another storm on the 11th in '40 sank 3 on L Michigan and took 57 souls.


The 1940 storm was named The Armistice Day Blizzard. A record low pressure of 28.72 inches was recorded in La Crosse, WI.

http://www.weatherwise.org/Archives/Back%20Issues /2012/November-December%202012/retrospect-full.htm l
Latest CFSv2 now with all other major enso models with a greater than 3C peak coming in December for Nino 3.4. CFSv2 also is showing El-Nino albeit weak into next Summer. Difference for this Summer is we will trend toward Neutral which could lead to a dangerous Hurricane Season across the Atlantic. I will go 15 9 5 next season based on what I am seeing.

Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:

Latest CFSv2 now with all other major enso models with a greater than 3C peak coming in December for Nino 3.4. CFSv2 also is showing El-Nino albeit weak into next Summer. Difference for this Summer is we will trend toward Neutral which could lead to a dangerous Hurricane Season across the Atlantic. I will go 15 9 5 next season based on what I am seeing.




Uh...scott...let's not predict next season yet.
Quoting 16. 62901IL:

I don't understand this...why downgrade to Slight Risk and move the Enhanced Risk farther north?



SPC AC 101743

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN
MO...AND CENTRAL IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS TO NORTHEAST TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO EAST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
DURING DAY 2...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING EXPECTED WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FROM WEST/NORTHWEST KS AT 12Z WED
INTO IA BY 12/00Z AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THU. A
TRAILING COLD WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MO...AR TO
DEEP SOUTH TX BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS WED NIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
GIVEN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE/DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO BE
WEAK ACROSS THE RISK AREAS DURING DAY 2...THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO IA/NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MUCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG POSSIBLE WITH NORTHERN EXTENT INCLUDING
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION
AREA...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A RATHER NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 500
J/KG. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SUSTAINED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEB...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IA...NORTHERN MO INTO IL...AS STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT 500-MB JET SPREADS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THESE AREAS LATE WED MORNING INTO THE EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH SOUTHERN MO TO
WESTERN KY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD
FRONT FAVORS DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS A CATEGORY 2 SEVERE
RISK...AS WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO BE
SUSTAINED FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EPISODE.

FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INITIAL DAY 2 ENH AND
SLGT RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED WESTWARD SOME...AS A PRECEDING
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
STRONGER WINDS TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY/LOWER TN VALLEY...
STRONGEST INSTABILITY MAY BE CONFINED TO EAST TX...LA INTO SOUTHERN
AR WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. POOR LAPSE RATES AND
WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LESS ACROSS
EASTERN OK...WITH MODELS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN AR TO EAST TX BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2015

Because I called SPC and told them you don't want severe weather...
I suspect that a complete reversal is going to take place next Hurricane Season from a Active Pacific in 2015 to a quiet 2016 while the Atlantic Basin uncorks like we haven't seen in over 10 years.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5h5 hours ago
The CFS is literally forecasting off-the-chart warm SST anomalies for Spring 2016 in the tropical Atlantic #climate
Very bad news from Socotra if the numbers below are right:

Yemen cyclone kills 13 on Socotra island, hits mainland
Euronews/Reuters, 10/11 18:30 CET
ADEN (Reuters)- Winds and rain from the second rare cyclone to hit Yemen in two weeks have killed 13 people, including three children, on Yemen's Socotra island, the fisheries minister said on Tuesday.
Cyclone Megh slammed into Socotra on Sunday with category four hurricane-force winds, and arrived on the Yemeni mainland's southern shore near the port city of Aden on Tuesday.
Fisheries Minister Fahd Kafayen said that three fishermen were also missing on the island, according to his Facebook page.
The storm injured an estimated 60 people and damaged houses, the main power station and hospital on Socotra, the U.N. humanitarian office OCHA said. ...



Photo from the article above. Here a tweet with more uprooted Dragonblood Trees.
Here is the original article from Reuters.
Edit: According to a tweet from LebanonNews (and others) death toll is now at 14 :-(

Somalia: Tropical Storm Update, Issued: 10th November, 2015
Updated: 2 hours 34 min ago
Heavy rains reported in Puntland as tropical storm MEGH passes the northern coast of the country:
The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 8th November 2015. The tropical storm named MEGH was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 160mm while Allula received 154mm in a single day.
The extreme weather conditions led to livestock deaths as well as destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats. Currently, flash floods still threaten many areas following the heavy downpour that is still being experienced in some areas. ..



Click it to get a map (pfd).
Quoting 23. 62901IL:



Uh...scott...let's not predict next season yet.
Is this Nino, going to a Nina phase come summer 2016?
Quoting 20. lilElla:



The 1940 storm was named The Armistice Day Blizzard. A record low pressure of 28.72 inches was recorded in La Crosse, WI.

http://www.weatherwise.org/Archives/Back%20Issues /2012/November-December%202012/retrospect-full.htm l
Interesting, they say took 66 lives instead of 57 (updated?) & took out Tacoma Narrows Bridge on 7th, req'd video in engineering school. But, tried search of '13 storm on that site and didn't get anything.

Edit: Had lull at work - White Hurricane, 969 mb (28.615") at Erie, PA, as low from NW lakes merged w/ low from SE states and "bombed". Wave heights doubled in 8-12 hrs to 30' plus. NOAA has nice pdf, 1913Retrospective.pdf
16) your answer in disco:
FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH SOUTHERN MO TO
WESTERN KY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD
FRONT FAVORS DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS A CATEGORY 2 SEVERE
RISK...AS WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO BE
SUSTAINED FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EPISODE.

plus with angle it's coming in at, you'll be further after sunset than W C IL between 74 & 72. We'll know better tomorrow morning though.
.
Quoting 9. marynell:

Yes, the song took artistic license. The song does reference the 29 bells that rang for each member on the Fitzgerald, but one more bell rang for all lives lost on the Great Lakes as well. The ship was to unload first in Detroit, then head empty to Cleveland for the winter.

This link has the radio chatter between the ship following the Fitzgerald, the Arthur Anderson and the Coast Guard. www.shipwreckmuseum.com/edmundfitzgerald

Thanks marynell. Here's that conversation. As you can hear, the captain of the Arthur Anderson wasn't thrilled when asked to come about and look for signs of wreckage or survivors, and who can blame him under those conditions!
Quoting 29. dabirds:

16) your answer in disco:
FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH SOUTHERN MO TO
WESTERN KY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD
FRONT FAVORS DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS A CATEGORY 2 SEVERE
RISK...AS WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO BE
SUSTAINED FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EPISODE.

plus with angle its coming in at, you'll be further after sunset than W C IL between 74 & 72. We'll know better tomorrow morning though.


Okay.
its growing west carib. disturbance
33 Comments in 3 hours.
Well we picked up a little bit of rain here in south Fort Myers. Just enough to keep the plants happy for a couple days. I'm still waiting for that first shot of nice cool dry air of the Fall season.
Quoting 6. BobHenson:



It's still there--but now over on the right-hand side. We moved the various share options to the left-hand side, where readers of many other news sites are accustomed to finding those buttons.

On both Chrome (Version 46.0.2490.80 m) and Internet Explorer (11.0.24). Using Windows 8.1 Enterprise
- If logged in, I get the FLAG button
- If logged out, I get the PLUS button
Quoting 33. GeoffreyWPB:


Yellow crayon?
Big blob watch #18 (fate unknown)


I have all my buttons. I don't see any change. Can someone tell me what the problem is. I have Windows 10.
Quoting 40. Grothar:

I have all my buttons. I don't see any change. Can someone tell me what the problem is. I have Windows 10.

Windows 10 Enterprise and Explorer 11 - everything nominal.
Quoting 40. Grothar:

I have all my buttons. I don't see any change. Can someone tell me what the problem is. I have Windows 10.


We are referring to the ability to 'like' the blog. The PLUS button right under the blog title is missing. When I log out and hover over the number besides the PLUS button, I see that only user CX201A has plussed/liked the blog.

All of the buttons for each comment still appear.

What url do you use to access the blog?
Quoting 40. Grothar:

I have all my buttons. I don't see any change. Can someone tell me what the problem is. I have Windows 10.
Have all mine too, Firefox. Edit: 42) I see, don't have blog like either. Now the share comment makes sense. Thanks!

Made 60s, winds up slightly, dew pt & press down slightly. Little surprised w/ dew pt, but imagine that will be changing before too long w/ S-SW wind.

Miss Piggy visiting Kate right now.
Quoting 30. capeflorida:

.
Thanks marynell. Here's that conversation. As you can hear, the captain of the Arthur Anderson wasn't thrilled when asked to come about and look for signs of wreckage or survivors, and who can blame him under those conditions!



The captain of the Arthur M Anderson had a responsibility to his crew and ship under extremely adverse gale and wave conditions. Ship contact was lost after sundown and no doubt the darkness and blowing snow shortened visibility considerably.

From this site, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/wxwise/fitz.html, has the fluctuating NWS forecasts for November 9-10, explanation of "fetch", and the following…

Late on the afternoon of the 10th, Captain McSorely of the Fitzgerald made radio contact with another ship, the Avafor, and reported that they "had a bad list, had lost both radars, and was taking heavy seas over the deck in one of the worst seas he had ever been in." Captain McSorely was a seasoned sailor of the Great Lakes with 44 years of experience.

At 7 p.m. the Anderson made radio contact with the Fitzgerald and had her on their radar. When asked how the Fitzgerald was making out they replied "We are holding our own". This was around 7:10 p.m.. Shortly afterwards the Fitzgerald disappeared from the Anderson's radar screen.
Quoting 35. DFWdad:


On both Chrome (Version 46.0.2490.80 m) and Internet Explorer (11.0.24). Using Windows 8.1 Enterprise
- If logged in, I get the FLAG button
- If logged out, I get the PLUS button

At home now with Windows 7 and Firefox: Flag button. I wonder what happens if I press it. Will the entry disappear, once enough of the flag party have hit it, lol?
Edit: Okay, I've "flagged" it. Maybe an admin will notice :-)
Quoting 38. Grothar:

Big blob watch #18 (fate unknown)





It was Nov 10th,2015 ROUND NOON EDT WHEN THE SINGULARITY FIRST APPEARED ON WUNDERGROUND IN THE MAIN BLOG.

After I noticed I had been typing in all caps, the wu server became sentient and reset all the PWS globally to Fahrenheit default,

Then the L shaped invest appeared in the Western Caribbean.....and Gro established the blob con.

What unfolds next is a true story.


Thanks, Bob and Jeff. Nice to see we may get to track another hurricane, but with no threat to land this time.

I was a deckhand for one summer in 1964 on the SS. Middletown, a ship owned by OgleBay Norton, the same company that owned the Edmund Fitzgerald. The Middletown was a converted WWII tanker. She was the second oldest ship in the fleet, and swabies like me got berths on her. Only guys with the most seniority got berths on the "Fitz", as we all knew her. The Fitz was considered to be a plush assignment, with much better accommodations, including air conditioning, something almost unknown on the Lakes then. I got a tour of her in Detroit, and she was a beautiful ship. Contrary to what I've seen written, the Fitz was not the longest nor fastest boat on the Lakes. The Middletown, after her conversion in 1958, had a plug added to the middle that gave an overall length of 730 feet, the maximum size for the St. Lawrence Seaway, and a foot longer than the Fitz. The Fitz was fast for a Lakes boat, at about 14 knots, but the Middletown had the advantage of oil fed boilers instead of hand coal feeding, and we regularly hit 16 knots fully loaded. We never had the chance to race the Fitz (although we looked for opportunities), but I'm convinced we would have beaten her.

I obviously don't know why the Fitz sank, but two things stand out from the radio transmissions I've heard. The first was Captain McSorley reporting taking on water and having a list (although how bad a list he never said), and the second was reporting that some of the hold mushroom vents had been damaged or lost. The Fitz was carrying taconite, low grade iron ore processed into marble sized pellets. There's a huge amount of air trapped in the holds due to quick loading and all the air space around the pellets. That air gets compressed as the ship moves, and the holds have vents to get rid of the compressed air. The Fitz had the newest hold covers, and it was common, even in bad weather, to leave some of the latches loose so more compressed air could exhaust. It's unlikely water, even in broaching seas, would get through the hold covers in any amount large enough to endanger the ship. Those same hold covers have been in use for the past 50 years on the Lakes, and not one ship has been lost due to a failure of hold covers.

I suspect someone gave the order, before the weather would have made deck movements impossible, to dog down all the hold covers. If that happened, the hold covers would be too airtight, allowing the compressed air to build up in the holds. That pressure would have eventually blown off the mushroom vents, just as the captain reported, and would have opened up a known weak welded seam in the keel. That would have led to a leak large enough to ship water into the hold. There weren't any watertight bulkheads in the Fitz, just two screen bulkheads to separate cargo when we were carrying a mixed load of taconite and coal. The Fitz would have continued to ship water into the hold, but the captain and officers would never had known it, since there were no level sensors in the hold. The captain also told the captain of the Correction - Arthur Anderson, a much slower ship he was sailing with, that he was going to seek lee cover in Isle Royale because the Anderson was "walking away" from him. Captain McSorley was a heavy weather sailor, and not the type to let a slower ship walk away from him in a storm. The Fitz couldn't make her normal speed because she continued to ship more water, and the combined weight of the water and the taconite was probably 10,000 tons more than her full draft weight. At some point, the seam rupture in the keel widened enough that the ship spilled part of her taconite load. The hull would have been ruptured to the extent that only the deck plating was holding the two ends of the ship together. The bow and aft sections would have been wracked and lifted, with the deck plating failing shortly thereafter. The ship would have gone down in a matter of minutes, and the crew wouldn't have even known it was going to happen.

Just my amatuer theory based on one summer on the Lakes. We had one storm bad enough to convince me that being a freshwater sailor was not for me. If I had stayed with the company, I would have 11 years in by 1975, enough for a berth on the Fitz, the plushest ship on the Lakes. I often think of the Fitz, and guys unlucky enough to be aboard on that November 10 so long ago.
Quoting 35. DFWdad:


On both Chrome (Version 46.0.2490.80 m) and Internet Explorer (11.0.24). Using Windows 8.1 Enterprise
- If logged in, I get the FLAG button
- If logged out, I get the PLUS button


Same here (Mac OS 10.8.5, Firefox ESR 38.3.0)

Logged in the button is the Flag
Logged out the button is the + sign
The TUTT cell draped like an inverted "U" shape between Central America, Cuba, and the NW Corner of SA is helping to enhance the convection on the the Blob but shear is pretty daunting for potential development IMHO:




Tampa Bay area forecast
Quoting 40. Grothar:

I have all my buttons. I don't see any change. Can someone tell me what the problem is. I have Windows 10.


they put all the share site buttons for blogs at left a flag button on the right for blogs
all buttons are the same in comments on blogs just changes made in the main blog page of peoples blogs

u got that now lol
here listen too some music


+1 like for this blog.
Mucho Respect and Happy Veteran's Day to all our veterans tomorrow. My Father was in the Air Force for many years, flew over the Bay of Pigs in Cuba in 61, and was a CIA covert aviator in the 60's in Africa and Latin America. His B-Day is tomorrow............... He is 89 ..........I am out (going fishing in the early am).
Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



they put all the share site buttons for blogs at left a flag button on the right for blogs
all buttons are the same in comments on blogs just changes made in the main blog page of peoples blogs

u got that now lol


Well in Chrome on the right we have a flag button, when logged in, when logged out, we get the like one.

So there is some ghost in the code still.



Quoting 42. DFWdad:



We are referring to the ability to 'like' the blog. The PLUS button right under the blog title is missing. When I log out and hover over the number besides the PLUS button, I see that only user CX201A has plussed/liked the blog.

All of the buttons for each comment still appear.

What url do you use to access the blog?
Using Chrome Version 46.0.2490.86 m under my ancient version of Vista, I only see the Flag icon on the very top line of the blog. Using Explorer 9, I see just a blank box at the top that's really the Plus button, and it allowed me to plus the blog. This happens when I use the "Read Blog" link. However, the comments don't show. If I use the "Comments" link, I see the usual Plus and Flag buttons. The blog and the comments show.

Obviously, the crack web team made some changes during one of their Sunday night sessions and didn't do much testing.

EDIT: Same behavior if logged out. I see the Plus button with only 1 plus. Even though I plussed the blog from Explorer, it doesn't show. Logged in, I only see the Flag button.
A Happy 240th Birthday to all US Marines globally.

Semper Fidelis'

November 10, 1775-November 10, 2015

Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



they put all the share site buttons for blogs at left a flag button on the right for blogs
all buttons are the same in comments on blogs just changes made in the main blog page of peoples blogs

u got that now lol
No, you don't have it. There's no Plus button at the top right side of the blog, only the Flag button. The Plus button used to be there. It's a screw up.
Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



they put all the share site buttons for blogs at left a flag button on the right for blogs
all buttons are the same in comments on blogs just changes made in the main blog page of peoples blogs

u got that now lol


You might want to look again. Only the flag button shows up on the top right.
Quoting 56. Patrap:



Well in Chrome on the right we have a flag button, when logged in, when logged out, we get the like one.

So there is some ghost in the code still.





ok I should of said its what I see with win10 and the edge browser
Quoting 59. sar2401:

No, you don't have it. There's no Plus button at the top right side of the blog, only the Flag button. The Plus button used to be there. It's a screw up.


there will be a plus button maybe
wait till someone who knows gives the answer
Quoting 59. sar2401:

No, you don't have it. There's no Plus button at the top right side of the blog, only the Flag button. The Plus button used to be there. It's a screw up.


this is what I see at all blogs
Quoting 36. Grothar:



Glad to see Grothar is still on blob watch.
Interesting west Caribbean blob.
Will anything come of it?
I'm out of the weather loop.
Quoting 30. capeflorida:

.
Thanks marynell. Here's that conversation. As you can hear, the captain of the Arthur Anderson wasn't thrilled when asked to come about and look for signs of wreckage or survivors, and who can blame him under those conditions!

I don't blame Captain Cooper for not wanting to go back out into the tremendous seas he just came through. He did, however, come about, and slog through the waves to where the Fitz went down. It was his discovery of pieces of the lifeboat and life jackets that confirmed the Fitz did, in fact, sink, and the all-out search was launched. Another ore boat, the William Clay Ford, actually lifted anchor from her safe anchorage in Whitefish Bay and sailed out into those terrible seas to assist in the search. The Ford also recovered debris that confirmed the Fitz went down. The captains and crews of both ships put themselves in harm's way when nothing but the traditions of the sea demanded they do so. They are all heros to me.
Quoting 63. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



there will be a plus button maybe
wait till someone who knows gives the answer

this is what I see at all blogs

That's what I see as well. There used to be a plus button. I see the plus button if I'm logged out. Something obviously went haywire. It happens with web sites.
980 MB Low in the Midwest is crazy deep. I expect a show tomorrow and tomorrow night. That is a ton of energy.
Quoting 54. Andrebrooks:

+1 like for this blog.


Feeling better now? I knew you would make it!
Quoting 44. barbamz:


Miss Piggy visiting Kate right now.


Does that make her technically a hurricane then? Although those winds that are highest seem quite far from the COC, very Sandy of her. I guess it's fair if she's already a hybrid tropical cyclone, given the time of year and her already being attached to a front, probably getting baroclinically enhanced.

Do you think Bermuda could be affected? I know she is small, but that wind field is even larger than she is.

Quoting 69. wartsttocs:



Feeling better now? I knew you would make it!
Yep, much better, and yep.
Kate will be a hurricane at 10PM. Any chance that we'll get Subtropical Hurricane Kate?

Quoting 72. HurricaneFan:

Kate will be a hurricane at 10PM. Any chance that we'll get Subtropical Hurricane Kate?


It stays away from deep temperature gradient for a few days. But then some of its energy goes into an extratropical system to its northwest and it is clear in the GFS forecasts that the two systems are interacting with each other rather than this being a simple extratropical transition.

Bottom line, yes.
Quoting 68. Plaza23:

980 MB Low in the Midwest is crazy deep. I expect a show tomorrow and tomorrow night. That is a ton of energy.


I have often questioned when crazy became an adverb :-)
Incidentally lows like this are part of mid fall plains climatology though it is fairly impressive.
Quoting 65. Chicklit:


Glad to see Grothar is still on blob watch.
Interesting west Caribbean blob.
Will anything come of it?
I'm out of the weather loop.



I don't know. How do, Chicklit????
Quoting 74. georgevandenberghe:



I have often questioned when crazy became an adverb :-)
Incidentally lows like this are part of mid fall plains climatology though it is fairly impressive.



I think from the old song, "The Lazy, Hazy, Crazy days of Summer"
Thanks for your patience with today's reworking of the buttons at the top of each post. The "plus" button has been showing up erratically for some but not all users/platforms. Most of you will see only the red flag at upper right (please don't confuse it with the "plus" button!). We'll have an update on the changeover as soon as the bugs are stabilized.
Record high of 90° in West Palm Beach. Later in the afternoon, we received a good dousing from a thunderstorm and even a funnel cloud down the road in Delray Beach.
Quoting 77. BobHenson:

Thanks for your patience with today's reworking of the buttons at the top of each post. The "plus" button has been showing up erratically for some but not all users/platforms. Most of you will see only the red flag at upper right (please don't confuse it with the "plus" button!). We'll have an update on the changeover as soon as the bugs are stabilized.


Click the flag, got it! ;)
The 18z GFS puts the south on nov 22nd in the deep freeze....
Quoting 80. bayoubug:

The 18z GFS puts the south on nov 22nd in the deep freeze....


Today is November 10 so this is 280 hours out.
Quoting 76. Grothar:



I think from the old song, "The Lazy, Hazy, Crazy days of Summer"


It's an adjective in that title.
Evening all.

Speaking of wrecks of large ships, I heard an interesting and rather poignant announcement this evening on the local radio station's "Community Announcements" section:

Mariners using the NW Channel and the Crooked Island Passage are being warned to look out for debris surfacing from the wreck of the ship which sank during last month's hurricane .....

Quoting 81. georgevandenberghe:



Today is November 10 so this is 280 hours out.

I'm aware of the date....Just seeing if the other runs will follow...looking for some cold air..
Although Kate is not going to be a problem for the US seaboard, it could well be a problem for the British Isles later in the week or early next. Much will depend upon the course of the jet stream. Let us hope it passes well to the north; if it doesn't, then it could be quite serious, so stand by ...
Quoting 1. Patrap:







This brought tears to my eyes .....
87. vis0
FROM D. Masters #3181, pg1::


Quoting 3. Webberweather53:

Thanks Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson.
From the last blog...


Amazingly,
despite the record NINO 4 SSTs, the Trans Nino Index is still positive.
Aside from the 1997-98 & 1982-83 super El Ninos & 1951-52
(albeit barely), every other El Nino since 1950 has occurred in concert
with a -TNI (i.e. NINO 4 > 1-2), thus this El Nino has clearly
distinguished itself among the rest of the pack and can certainly be
classified as a "Super" event. The increasing zonal SST gradient in the
tropical Pacific with the NINO 4 warming at a faster rate than the
eastern regions is to blame for the relatively disproportionate number
of +TNI El Ninos since the mid 20th century, which is amazing
considering that through the 1930s, the frequency of +TNI El Ninos was
nearly double that of -TNI events, now they've become an extremely rare
occurrence, set aside for only the strongest NINOs... Given the proxy
records, where (excluding the evolution of the Maritime Continent
archipelago) a weaker zonal SST gradient evolving concomitantly with
alterations in precession & obliquity tended to be associated with a
dampened ENSO response, thus, despite climate model uncertainties, it
could be implied that ENSO amplitude would tend increase in the future
due to the expectation that observed amplification of the zonal SST
gradient over the last century & a half persists. I wouldn't
necessarily say that this is the strongest we've observed, the 1877-78
& 1997-98 El Ninos topped out around +2.4-2.5C in the tri-monthlies
& there's more than enough uncertainty in the reconstructions to
suggest these events were still stronger than this year, although it
will not mean much in the grand scheme of things. The ENSO wave behavior
seems more reminiscent to the 1877-78 & 1888-89 Super events, with
one year of +ENSO preconditioning (which doesn't seem to be a function
of random noise in the reconstructions) & intensification through
the solstice, that apart from perhaps 1986-88, is virtually
unprecedented in the modern era. Hence, we likely haven't seen an El
Nino of this ferocity, placement, & progression since the late 19th
century.

December certainly looks like it could be an absolute
blowtorch
in the Northern Rockies, Upper midwest, Great Lakes, &
possibly even the northeastern US. This month has consistently shown the
strongest signaling overall for warmth in the northern tier, & the
most agreement amongst the climate models & the Strong-Super NINO
composites.

US December temps Strong-Super El Ninos (1895-present)


IMME N America December 2015 2mT forecast (2 month lead)






NOAA's
20CRv2c December N America 1000mb T (1981-2010 base pd) Strong-Super El
Ninos (1865-present). The warmth in the northern tier of the US &
south-central Canada is jaw dropping considering that this composite is
being artificially cooled by a warmer, modern-day base period.

open question TO ALL EXCEPT grothar :- P  ...OK Grothar you can add your 2 cents don't want lightning to strike me::

Could it be that the said "blowtorch" (2 paragraph) be sent upward atmospherically by a moderate YET continuous cooling of lower levels undercutting the northward(ly) moving warmer air.

If that happens (record warmth continuously being sent upward into the atmosphere with cooler air staying under that record warmth), what occurs via precipitation out west, as to west of Rockies versus East of Rockies?

My apologies for asking a serious question, i shall try to refrain from doing this again.

Observe weather and learn

Quoting 39. Grothar:


She's looking a treat .... may make that hurricane status after all ...

2016 is going to be the most active Atlantic season in some time. I can just tell already. With storms forming in hostile El Nino conditions like this, I can see 2016 being active - if not hyperactive - considering the possible La Nina and record warm SSTs. With a super El Nino producing 11 named storms, I can easily see a La Nina producing 20.
If we can't have a real upcoming winter around these parts then can we be repaid with a hurricane season like 2010?
I've recently found a video of evacuation for hurricane Earl back in 2010
Link

That type of foolish talk in the video puts first responders at risk because instead of people getting out the way they want to ride out the storm.Its a good thing Earl didn't hit at full force.Maybe Irene taught them a lesson the year after.
Quoting 86. BahaHurican:

This brought tears to my eyes .....



We,the US Marines, who have our shared Birthday every November 10th, always includes a toast to the lost of the Edmund Fitzgerald at every USMC Birthday Ball tonight.

In a musty old hall in Detroit they prayed
In the Maritime Sailors' Cathedral
The church bell chimed 'til it rang twenty-nine times
For each man on the Edmund Fitzgerald
The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they said, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early


Prepare for the DEEP FREEZE!
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

2016 is going to be the most active Atlantic season in some time. I can just tell already. With storms forming in hostile El Nino conditions like this, I can see 2016 being active - if not hyperactive - considering the possible La Nina and record warm SSTs. With a super El Nino producing 11 named storms, I can easily see a La Nina producing 20.


God forbid if the wave train sets up next year like it did this year.... Fred formed when its tail hit the water...in an El Nino year....Imagine Erica+La Nina....

Scary thoughts...
The Edmund Fitzgerald's Ships bell was recovered in 1995.

Here it is tolled on 10 November 2009.

Memorial service at Whitefish Point, Michigan....... 11-10-2009


Quoting 95. HurricaneFan:
Prepare for the DEEP FREEZE!
Atlanta had its coldest high temp of the 20th century on November 25, 1950, with 14 downtown, and 17 at the airport.
Quoting 98. BaltimoreBrian:

Atlanta had its coldest high temp of the 20th century on November 25, 1950, with 14 downtown.
So what could be expected as a low for Atlanta on the 23rd?
theme song for tomorrow: Link
Nothing about our local wx says "cooldown" ..... was around 90 today, and right now it's 81 feels like 86 .... one of the most humid November days without rain that I can remember.

Quoting 35. DFWdad:


On both Chrome (Version 46.0.2490.80 m) and Internet Explorer (11.0.24). Using Windows 8.1 Enterprise
- If logged in, I get the FLAG button
- If logged out, I get the PLUS button


That's the way it is on Firefox, Truly the work of a Rocket Scientist, No offense meant to Rocket Scientists.
Quoting 99. Grothar:




Question, is there an "Official" Blob alert? Looking rather perky down there.
Dr. Masters,
What I can tell is that there have been at least 82 hurricanes outside the normal hurricane season and at least 18 hurricane or tropical storms during the months of December or November Since records were made. Why do you think this storm is significant.
For me too Pedley. I just asked sensitivethug about it on her blog.
Quoting 6. BobHenson:



It's still there--but now over on the right-hand side. We moved the various share options to the left-hand side, where readers of many other news sites are accustomed to finding those buttons.

This comment has 14 Pluses, the Post has only 1, because you can't plus when you are logged out, that's some fine engineering there....
Mphh ... so far I haven't seen any major changes.... using Firefox, though.
Quoting 9. marynell:

Yes, the song took artistic license. The song does reference the 29 bells that rang for each member on the Fitzgerald, but one more bell rang for all lives lost on the Great Lakes as well. The ship was to unload first in Detroit, then head empty to Cleveland for the winter.

This link has the radio chatter between the ship following the Fitzgerald, the Arthur Anderson and the Coast Guard. www.shipwreckmuseum.com/edmundfitzgerald

The Fitzgerald was not heading to Cleveland, shipping season ends in January. With the loss of the Fitzgerald in the rotation, Great Lakes Steel (the blast furnaces on Zug Island - I worked there for over 40 years) was short pellets that winter and we had to rail in pellets and get some from the Tilden mine in the UP - Shipping out of the Escanaba instead of Marquette.
Quoting 105. derrickcollier:

Dr. Masters,
What I can tell is that there have been at least 82 hurricanes outside the normal hurricane season and at least 18 hurricane or tropical storms during the months of December or November Since records were made. Why do you think this storm is significant.


How many occurred in November during a strong El Nino? That's why he thinks the storm is significant. It's a lot easier to get favorable conditions in a weak El Nino - to a strong La Nina. But, when the conditions are this hostile this late in the year and somehow a wave transits the ocean and is now borderline hurricane strength, that's impressive.
Kaplan's Extended SST Version 2 (LDEO) Oceanic Nino Index ASO Rankings (1870-Present). The latest ONI value ( 2.11C) officially set a new record high in this dataset, beating out both 1877-78 & 1997-98. This is also the 13th highest value that's ever been recorded for any tri-monthly period in Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, with only the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 "Super" El Ninos registering higher in the ONI, & given that the NINO 3.4 SSTs still haven't peaked yet, we're liable to move up further in the rankings &/or break a record in the next update or two.

Top 20 ONI Values Kaplan Extended SSTv2 (1870-present)

NDJ 1997 2.43
DJF 1983 2.42
NDJ 1982 2.39
OND 1997 2.36
DJF 1998 2.35
DJF 1878 2.24
NDJ 1877 2.23
SON 1997 2.23
OND 1982 2.17
OND 1877 2.15
JFM 1983 2.15
SON 1877 2.12
ASO 2015 2.11
JFM 1878 2.10
JFM 1998 2.07
ASO 1877 2.05
ASO 1997 2.05
OND 1972 2.04
NDJ 1888 2.03
JAS 1877 1.96



Original Data: Link

Additionally, for the 2nd month in a row, the tri-monthly averaged BEST Index set a new record high. Note: I have adjusted this data with a 30-year sliding base period to attempt to remove the inherent warming signal in this index).

The tri-monthly BEST index not only set a monthly record, but a new all-time record high value was recorded this past ASO. In fact the last 2 tri-monthly values have registered in the top 5 overall. Wow. The utter domination by the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 Super NINOs is evident in the top 20 tri-monthly BEST Index rankings...

Top 20 (adjusted) Tri-Monthly BEST Index Values
ASO 2015 2.616
JFM 1983 2.595
DJF 1983 2.549
NDJ 1982 2.476
JAS 2015 2.454
JFM 1998 2.397
OND 1982 2.281
DJF 1878 2.236
DJF 1998 2.216
SON 1982 2.214
AMJ 1877 2.182
FMA 1983 2.172
JFM 1878 2.157
ASO 1997 2.156
NDJ 1997 2.067
MJJ 1877 2.061
SON 1877 2.050
JAS 1997 2.044
JJA 1877 2.023
FMA 1878 2.016



Original data:
Link

LARGEST ISLAND OF AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST GULF - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature on Groote Eylandt of 39.9 C / 103.8 F was set on November 10, 2015. It is the largest island in Australia's largest gulf, the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Link
Quoting 104. ProgressivePulse:



Question, is there an "Official" Blob alert? Looking rather perky down there.


Pro. Blob watches come first....then Blob alerts. How long have you been on here? :)
82 hurricanes outside the official Atlantic hurricane season? From December 1-May 31 in our period of record? I don't think so.
Quoting 96. JrWeathermanFL:



God forbid if the wave train sets up next year like it did this year.... Fred formed when its tail hit the water...in an El Nino year....Imagine Erica+La Nina....

Scary thoughts...



Quoting 112. DCSwithunderscores:

LARGEST ISLAND OF AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST GULF - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature on Groote Eylandt of 39.9 C / 103.8 F was set on November 10, 2015. It is the largest island in Australia's largest gulf, the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Link
Mr. Christopher Burt, who writes here as weatherhistorian is always interested in news like that. Post it there too.
Quoting 115. BaltimoreBrian:

82 hurricanes outside the official Atlantic hurricane season? From December 1-May 31 in our period of record? I don't think so.
Likely including November storms ....
Webberweather53 what is the significance of the highly negative numbers in winters 1965 & 1972?
Quoting 116. Grothar:







The icecube has already started to form
As a survivor of both camille and katrina we are done. what do we expect.
Kate deepens one mb to 998 mb, remains a tropical storm.
Quoting 119. BaltimoreBrian:

Webberweather53 what is the significance of the highly negative numbers in winters 1965 & 1972?


The strong El Ninos of 1965-66 & 1972-73 were both preceded by formidable La Ninas, with the latter of the two (1970-71/1971-72) being a moderate-strong 2-year event. Although it's worth mentioning that the uncertainty for estimating La Nina intensity is significantly higher than for El Ninos, partially due to the fact that the distribution for NINA-NINO intensity is skewed ever so slightly towards El Ninos. Hence the strongest NINOs (1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98) are more powerful than the biggest La Ninas (1892-93, 1916-17, 1973-74, 1988-89).
...KATE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...
11:00 PM AST Tue Nov 10
Location: 33.9°N 69.5°W
Moving: NE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

125. vis0
(w/o permission from baltimorebrian)

If       would have been      it would've been fixed by now...of course WxU could say they are not as rich.
I like that vis0 :)
GFS showing snow all the way down to the gulf in hour 300 and something bhahahaha!
11th named storm waves goodbye

Kate's fetch/ wave energy was very fun to ride in Central Florida today! It was 3-4 feet. west winds till 2pm.
132. MahFL
The winter storm is forming nicely :

Quoting 113. Grothar:



Pro. Blob watches come first....then Blob alerts. How long have you been on here? :)


Not enough lately as it would seem, lol. Trade off's with having your own business. Moving to Bethlehem, PA in July, looks like just in the nick of time maybe, lol.
Quoting 109. TroutMadness:


The Fitzgerald was not heading to Cleveland, shipping season ends in January. With the loss of the Fitzgerald in the rotation, Great Lakes Steel (the blast furnaces on Zug Island - I worked there for over 40 years) was short pellets that winter and we had to rail in pellets and get some from the Tilden mine in the UP - Shipping out of the Escanaba instead of Marquette.

In the song Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, the lyrics were "When they left fully loaded for Cleveland." The destination was Detroit to unload. I had read "on the internet" that the ship was to be berthed in Cleveland afterwards. I will go with your experienced insight on the matter of shipping dates. It would make sense that the lakes hadn't froze enough to hinder shipping in early November. Thank you for the correction. Today, with a bit more reading, I see that the additional bell ring for all lost on the Great Lakes was instituted many years later. I had lived outside of Cleveland for my childhood and recalled the ceremony being broadcast live from Detroit on one of their radio stations. A very solemn, respectful broadcast punctuated by the bell tolls.
Quoting 133. ProgressivePulse:



Not enough lately as it would seem, lol. Trade off's with having your own business. Moving to Bethlehem, PA in July, looks like just in the nick of time maybe, lol.



PENNSYLVANIA?? Didn't anyone tell you it gets cold up there?
Rain through the night, plus snow starting probably a little way after midnight. I was out at 4am, and there was snow over a layer of slush on the ground. I figure, total around a quarter inch; official NAS reading was .10" precip.

More whiteness on the hills around us, and it was nice even with all the mud to see snow. And also glad the majority of it melted; it's below freezing out there now.

G'night from chilly Fallon!
We have HurriKate everyone! She's as minimal as it gets for a hurricane, at 75 mph and 996 mb, but she did it!
By the way, who knows which storm holds the record for furthest north November hurricane? I simply must know!
this site reminds me of the old geocities or blogger when folks would make a homepage while learning html or using a template. This might just be an old template and nobody knows anything about the coding. the glitch may be in the template
Hoping the same SE NC about 9AM.

Quoting 129. waveRoller:

Kate's fetch/ wave energy was very fun to ride in Central Florida today! It was 3-4 feet. west winds till 2pm.
Great! ... with the mention of the Edmund Fitzgerald, I am now going to have Gordon Lightfoot's singing stuck in my head all morning. It has started already .... sigh. Going to be a long morning ....
Quoting 137. Grothar:



Ah, great! Forecast for drought stricken mid/southern Germany starts to show some precipitation, worth mentioning, for the weekend and the week to follow! Some of this is due to Kate :-) Bring it on!


GFS rain forecast for Europe one week out with a good soaking. Hope it will pan out. After nine dry months we have to catch up a whole lot!

North Atlantic with Kate.
yesterdays surf was the second best day this yr. glassy like an afternoon in waikiki with overhead sets. it was fun.
Death toll rises after rare cyclone on Yemeni island
AlArabiyaNews, By AFP, Aden Wednesday, 11 November 2015
Cyclone Megh has killed 14 people on war-ravaged Yemen's Socotra island, the second rare tropical storm to hit the Arabian Peninsula country in days, officials said.
A statement said Megh caused "14 deaths including two women and two children, and injured dozens of people".
A previous toll from the storm hitting Socotra put the death toll at six.
The Arabian Sea island is located 350 kilometres (210 miles) off the Yemeni mainland.
The UN's humanitarian agency OCHA said Megh appeared to be getting weaker as it made landfall early Tuesday on the Yemeni mainland.
"A thousand houses collapsed and some 2,000 others were damaged" on Socotra, and hundreds of fishing boats were damaged and many livestock animals killed, officials said.
Heavy rain and strong winds also took Socotra's port out of service and caused extensive damage to the island's roads, 80 percent of which became impassable.
Around 800 residents of a small island near Socotra were evacuated to the neighbouring province of Hadramawt on the mainland, a rights activist told AFP. ...





Source of images "The impact of hurricane strength "Meg" Ali province of Socotra archipelago#": Tweet from Arabian Huffington Post. (Saw many similar in other tweets from Socotra; the smaller adjacent islands west of Socotra are severly damaged too. Megh's southern eyewall went right over Abd Al Kuri-Island. Good that folks had been evacuated according to the article above).


Source wiki.


Precipitation Accumulation Analysis with GPM Derived Data (IMERG-Real Time) Acquired from 06 November to 10 November 2015 12h UTC
Quoting 144. barbamz:


Ah, great! Forecast for drought stricken mid/southern Germany starts to show some precipitation, worth mentioning, for the weekend and the week to follow! Some of this is due to Kate :-) Bring it on!


GFS rain forecast for Europe one week out with a good soaking. Hope it will pan out. After nine dry months we have to catch up a whole lot!

Record low level of river Rhine in the Netherlands reached day before yesterday.
Quoting 149. barbamz:


Thank you for the timely and excellent information you provide us with barb! I was going to ask you yesterday if you knew of any damage/casualties to Abd Al Kuri as Megh passed right over it. WU should make you a featured blogger!!!
El Nino 'threatens millions in Africa'

© BBC Dry land in Ethiopia





Some 11 million children are at risk from hunger, disease and water shortages in east and southern Africa because of the strengthening El Nino weather phenomenon, the UN children's charity has said.

It has caused the worst drought in more than 30 years in Ethiopia, Unicef said.

Its effects could also be "particularly harsh" in Somalia, amid fears of flooding, it warned.

El Nino is caused by Pacific Ocean warming.

Ethiopia faces worst drought in decades

"The weather phenomenon, among the strongest on record, is likely to cause more floods and droughts, fuel Pacific typhoons and cyclones and affect more areas if it continues strengthening as forecast over the coming months," Unicef said in a statement.

It said 8.2 million people in Ethiopia faced food insecurity, while an estimated 350,000 children needed treatment for severe acute malnutrition.

"To make matters worse, the weather phenomenon may also bring flooding to some areas of the country in the coming months," Unicef said.

Ethiopia says it has food surpluses in country which it continues to send to areas affected by the drought.



Full Link

Link
KATE IS NOW THE 4TH HURRICANE - AND 11th NAMED STORM OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Although we are in a very strong El-Nino event, Kate managed to become a rare November hurricane.

This is very interesting! Is the busy phase of storm activity (that began in 1995) still continuing?

This year 2015, we now have 11 named storms. This is more storms - or near the upper end of the number of named storms - than what was originally predicted in this El Nino year!

In the Atlantic basin, last year 2014, we had 8 named storms. In 2013 we managed to get 13 named storms. Before that - in every year 2012, 2011, 2010 - 19 named storms formed each year.

We will have to wait till next year to see if the trends continue..... it is possible we might observe a busy Atlantic hurricane season.



Quoting 123. Webberweather53:



The strong El Ninos of 1965-66 & 1972-73 were both preceded by formidable La Ninas, with the latter of the two (1970-71/1971-72) being a moderate-strong 2-year event. Although it's worth mentioning that the uncertainty for estimating La Nina intensity is significantly higher than for El Ninos, partially due to the fact that the distribution for NINA-NINO intensity is skewed ever so slightly towards El Ninos. Hence the strongest NINOs (1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98) are more powerful than the biggest La Ninas (1892-93, 1916-17, 1973-74, 1988-89).


Just wanted to say great work. Proud of your accomplishment. :)


Looks to be transitioning to extratropical.....
El-Nino continues to strengthen. Likely a All-Time record by next Monday coming from the CPC for Nino 3.4.



Also there is very strong OKW that is beginning to surface and its heading for South America so Nino 1&2 is now beginning to rise as well.

There is also another WWB in progress near the Dateline.

1994 a strong el nino yr had two atlantic cyclones in november
Major drop in the SOI about to take place as the MJO begins to refocus across the Pacific. All the oranges in the far Western Pacific represent sinking air hence the rising pressures. As this occurs the lower pressures get focused further east across the Pacific and this is the reason for the WWB as air moves toward the lower pressures. Bottomline this El-Nino is still about 6 weeks from peaking so anyone listening to JB will continued to be fed farm raised crow.

Quoting 160. islander101010:

1994 a strong el nino yr had two atlantic cyclones in november


1994/1995 was a weaker El-Nino but I see your point as El-Nino years do tend to feature November development like IDA in 2009.
Here is another great representation from my post above regarding the big time SOI drop coming. Likely a very strong WWB looming too down the road as a result of this.

Euro 168hrs.
sorry not two but only gordon acc/ to stats nhc did not classify the other system a northeaster that i remember.. gordon nevertheless was the worst hurricane of the yr
1994 el nino was not mild at that time near record temps. worldwide
Quoting 164. islander101010:

sorry not two but only gordon acc/ to stats nhc did not classify the other system a northeaster that i remember.. gordon nevertheless was the worst hurricane of the yr


Gordon flooded the FL Penisula. I remember 26hrs straight of heavy rains which flooded my whole neighborhood back then in Lake Mary near Heathrow.
Quoting 126. BaltimoreBrian:

I like that vis0 :)


Most of you should remember this:
That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 162. StormTrackerScott:



1994/1995 was a weaker El-Nino but I see your point as El-Nino years do tend to feature November development like IDA in 2009.
Quoting 160. islander101010:

1994 a strong el nino yr had two atlantic cyclones in november




1994's Hurricanes Florence and Gordon were impressive Atlantic November hurricanes. It was an El Nino year.

Hurricane Ida formed during November 2009. It was also an El Nino year. Ida became a CAT2 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with winds up to 105MPH. As Ida neared the Central Gulf Coast, it weakened, but was fairly impressive. Gale force wind gusts were recorded from SE Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. Huge waves battered the coast, and coastal flooding was widespread. Although Ida was a tropical storm as it neared Dauphin Island, AL ... there was a hurricane force wind gust recorded at the mouth of the Miss. River.

In the Atlantic Basin, another slower year with storm activity was 1986. Was this a weak El Nino year? Hurricane Frances formed in the Atlantic Ocean in November 1986.
Quoting 167. 62901IL:



Most of you should remember this:
That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!!
Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!


Period? More like EXCLAMATION MARKS!!!!!!
Quoting 107. PedleyCA:


This comment has 14 Pluses, the Post has only 1, because you can't plus when you are logged out, that's some fine engineering there....


Web programming sucks. It's what happens when you organically grow an engineering ecosystem from a bunch of components and protocols that were never intended to be used in the manner in which they eventually did.

When it became apparent that web was actually going to become an application platform, it should have been redesigned from scratch, not hacked and cobbled together out of the bits and pieces lying around at the time. Javascript, for example, should have died a much needed death and been replaced by...well...almost anything would be better than Javascript.

So when I see a web application fail or bug out, I just sigh an shrug.
Quoting 170. Xyrus2000:

... I just sigh an shrug.

I'm sighing and shrugging right now! Last post was an hour ago.
edit: I have to go outside now to prepare for the winds reportedly bearing down on us in Illinois (gusts up to 57 mph), lest my garden furniture end-up in my neighbor's yard.
Quoting 171. ChiThom:


I'm sighing and shrugging right now! Last post was an hour ago.

Personally,......... I blame El Niño! ;-}
178. MahFL
"0719 AM BLIZZARD 8 SE WATKINS 39.67N 104.49W
11/11/2015 ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

4.9 INCHES OF SNOW. NORTH WINDS 33 MPH GUSTING TO 47 MPH
REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE."
I have been forecasting or predicting a Central Pacific Super Nino in the 3.4 Region of the Pacific which is terribly exciting. I just hope to track and chase storms all over the country. If baroclinic storms can tap into the subtropical Jetstream the south will be primed for severe weather this winter. Also I have mentioned the cold NAO or the negative phase of the NAO. I still believe New England will get substantial snow from Nor'easters this year. Originating from GOM and Colorado or leeside Lows. The trough axis has to shift to a Positive PNA. But it is good to see a Negative PNA now California and West needs the Precipitation
AFRICA'S LARGEST UNIVERSITY - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature at the main campus of the University of South Africa in South Africa's executive capitol city, Pretoria, of 39.8 C / 103.6 F was set on November 10, 2015. The University of South Africa is Africa's largest university. There may have also been a new record all-time hottest temperature at a station in South Africa's most populous city, Johannesburg, on that day.

Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good afternoon

It's a very muggy 84 feeling like 94, with on and off showers here on the island today.

Very busy day with six cruise ships in, plus the downtown Veterans' Day parade happened earlier. In other words, if the locals can hide and not go downtown, they don't!

Link First cam shows three of the four ships in Havensight. I might go upstairs and knock the case a bit to the right so you can see the fourth ship. Clear view of the other two ships in Crown Bay on the second cam.

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
183. vis0
As to Norman's alerts here my 2cents on my ml-d RESET pg cmmnt#139 (not the zillypg)

i ask that you do only 2 things:
Look a Veteran in the eyes and Say thank you
Please pay attention to all watches & warnings
146) Interesting matt, all our clouds in S C IL are Pacific, not gulf moisture. 147) Quite an increase in the 7 day, must be going to get a good soaking from midweek storms.

Currently 60, dew pt has definitely started rising, up to 46 from low/mid 30s yesterday. Press continues dropping, down .3" from 24 hrs ago to 29.85". Winds now from straight S, 7-10 w/ a 16 gust, so expect gulf moisture will start blending in before too long. Looks like severe focus has shifted even more N & W, but still expect some good straight lines as front come through a little later than first expected, probably around 8:30ish for us.
For all my fellow Veterans today, those gone to eternal rest, and esp to my friend whom I had the pleasure of serving with in NATO, Grothar.



187. vis0

Quoting 177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


NOT ANY OFFICIAL NOTICE MY EDUCATED HUNCH::
am worried for the eastern quarter of the severe warned area(s)

in other words between the green & white outlines of your #184 comment. i know that's to be the less dangerous area as compared to INSIDE the green but my crazy science sez PAY ATTEN TO ALL high % areas but also surprises from OH-near PA to MIss.  - Bama