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Déjà Vu: Category 3 Megh Slams Yemen Island; Bahamas Disturbance 94L May Develop

By: Jeff Masters 5:57 PM GMT on November 08, 2015

Tropical Cyclone Megh powered ashore over Yemen's Socotra Island on Sunday morning as a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Megh could well have been a Category 4 storm at landfall, since satellite estimates of small storms like Megh are subject to large errors. Megh's passage over the island has disrupted the storm some, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated the storm's peak winds at 115 mph at 7 am EST Sunday. Interaction with land, entrainment of dry air from the nearby deserts, and encounters with cooler patches of water upwelled last week by the passage of Tropical Cylcone Chapala should continue to weaken Megh. By the time it reaches the south Yemen coast between Mukalla and Aden sometime on Tuesday, Megh will likely be at tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. MODIS image of the eye of Tropical Cyclone Megh making landfall on Yemen's Socotra Island on November 8, 2015. At the time, Megh was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the MODIS instrument on November 1, 2015. At the time, Chapala was passing just north of Yemen's Socotra Island as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Twin major hurricanes in the Arabian Sea: unprecedented in the historical record
Megh is the second major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone to affect Yemen this month. Just a week ago, Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to intensify into a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average). This made Chapala the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cylcone Gonu of 2007, the only Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Arabian Sea (Gonu peaked at 165 mph winds). Chapala went on to devastate Yemen's Socotra Island and mainland Yemen near the port city of Mukalla on November 3, killing at least eight people and causing widespread destructive flooding. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricanes tool, prior to this year, there had only been five major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea since accurate satellite records began in 1990, and an additional Category 3 storm that occurred in 1977. Thus, two major hurricanes in one month in the Arabian Sea is a remarkable occurrence.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of 94L.

94L could develop into a tropical depression near the Bahamas
A well-organized area of heavy thunderstorms near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands (Invest 94L) is associated with an area of low pressure headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed 94L had a modest degree of spin, and a moderate-sized area of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures were record-warm for this time of year, near 29°C (84°F). The 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear near 94L would remain moderate through Wednesday and ocean temperatures would be above the 80°F threshold for tropical storm formation--conditions which should allow 94L to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday, though waer vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the west of 94L that could slow down development. In their 1 pm EST Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70%. The disturbance should continue heading west-northwest through Monday afternoon, spreading heavy rain showers into the Central Bahamas. By Monday night or Tuesday morning, 94L should turn sharply to the north just before reaching the northwest Bahamas, as a trough of low pressure passing to the north pulls the disturbance northwards. This motion should keep 94L from having any direct impacts on the U.S. East Coast. 94L will then turn to the north-northeast or northeast by Tuesday afternoon, and could bring heavy rains to Bermuda on Wednesday. About half of the members of the GFS and European ensemble models develop the system into a tropical depression, though the operational versions of these models were lukewarm on the development prospects. Should 94L intensify into a tropical storm, it would be called Tropical Storm Kate. A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 94L on Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow... 94L looking nice!
The times and the weather they be a changing'...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
in association with a low pressure system located just north of
the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. In addition,
satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low is
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on
Monday while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward
near or over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are possible across the Turks and Caicos and
most of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
94L...

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters. I can't believe another tropical cyclone is slamming Socotra!

Closer to home, it is another very warm day here in Central FL. Contrary to what I said earlier, it is as warm/hot as the past week has been. This should be the very last day of the record heat though.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thank you for the information on both areas of storm interest today Dr. Masters.
I think that the landfall of Megh is going to be very bad for the island of Socotra, as things will have been "prepared," so to say by the recent near passage of the cyclone last week.
This time it looks like Megh went the full length of the island and probably favoured the north coast with its eye. This will also have brought the full force of the winds and storm surges against the coasts.
Added to the strike on Socotra, the other islands in the area will also have been hit.
Even if lives have not been lost damage to the infrastructure will be very great.
Looks like 94L is taking advantage of its surrounding environment.Why are the waters at record levels in the bahamas? These record waters fuled Joaquin.What is going on?
LOL. Went up to 70%/70% while you were typing, Doc. 94L's organization isn't too impressive so far, but there are a lot of thunderstorms associated with it. It "looks" like the kind of disturbance that should develop into something, even if the models aren't giving it much love. The remains of ex-93L are doing a good job of dumping rain on SE Alabama and the Panhandle today. I'm up to 2.97" since 0430 this morning. This is the most rain I've had at one time since the big floods in April, 2014. The low is moving very slowly east, and heavier cells (although no convection) move in between periods of lighter rain. I wouldn't be surprised to see four to five inches by tonight. Not bad for a storm that was supposed to bring less than an inch. There's also a pretty good squall line developing from the tail of the low in the Gulf. I don't know if the line will make it to the Florida coast, but there's a lot of convection associated with the line right now.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
in association with a low pressure system located just north of
the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. In addition,
satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low is
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on
Monday while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward
near or over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are possible across the Turks and Caicos and
most of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent



hmm the out look says the recon will go out monday AM and not sunday from dr m blog

here what dr m blog saide

A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 94L near 4 pm EST Sunday

i wounder wish is right the out look or dr m blog?
Quoting 10. sar2401:

LOL. Went up to 70%/70% while you were typing, Doc. 94L's organization isn't too impressive so far, but there are a lot of thunderstorms associated with it. It "looks" like the kind of disturbance that should develop into something, even if the models aren't giving it much love. The remains of ex-93L are doing a good job of dumping rain on SE Alabama and the Panhandle today. I'm up to 2.97" since 0430 this morning. This is the most rain I've had at one time since the big floods in April, 2014. The low is moving very slowly east, and heavier cells (although no convection) move in between periods of lighter rain. I wouldn't be surprised to see four to five inches by tonight. Not bad for a storm that was supposed to bring less than an inch. There's also a pretty good squall line developing from the tail of the low in the Gulf. I don't know if the line will make it to the Florida coast, but there's a lot of convection associated with the line right now.


The majority of those squall lines fizzle before they hit the coast. Let's see if it holds together.
Quoting 11. Tazmanian:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
in association with a low pressure system located just north of
the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. In addition,
satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low is
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on
Monday while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward
near or over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are possible across the Turks and Caicos and
most of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent



hmm the out look says the recon will go out monday AM and not sunday from dr m blog

here what dr m blog saide

A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 94L near 4 pm EST Sunday

i wounder wish is right the out look or dr m blog?



Looks like today's HH mission has been scrubbed.

Dr. M.
So far we've had 0.92 and rising rapidly as it just went from steady rain to a brief torrential down pour from some embedded convective activity. What a nice change from the heat and dry weather, it's cool windy, with heavy rain, this more like Tallahassee in the cool season.

Looks like the heaviest is yet to come, we'll probably finish anywhere between 1.5 and 3 inches hopefully, though 1.5-2.0 inches most reasonable. Even the amount we've had so far is great.
cmc does not like 94 future kinda odd
"out of season" storm history, illustrates not unusual to have cyclones form late Nov./Dec. This El Niño year might bring one or more to the Atlantic basin ( yes, Nov. is still hurricane season.)

Link

Above is a history of out of season Atlantic storms
Quoting 15. islander101010:

cmc does not like 94 future kinda odd


None of the models AFAIK develop 94L beyond TD status.

Of course, we saw this with Joaquin and it became a Category 4/5 hurricane.
Quoting 17. NSB207:

Link

Above is a history of out of season Atlantic storms
Your link doesn't work for some reason. This one does. I also don't know how accurate that list is since it's missing Kate (1985), a November 15-23 hurricane that was one of the few to make landfall anywhere in Florida, and the latest hurricane to ever make landfall in the continental US.

Link
Quoting 14. Jedkins01:

So far we've had 0.92 and rising rapidly as it just went from steady rain to a brief torrential down pour from some embedded convective activity. What a nice change from the heat and dry weather, it's cool windy, with heavy rain, this more like Tallahassee in the cool season.

Looks like the heaviest is yet to come, we'll probably finish anywhere between 1.5 and 3 inches hopefully, though 1.5-2.0 inches most reasonable. Even the amount we've had so far is great.
I'm up to 3.21", with periods of heavy rain followed by much lighter rain. The barometer, which had risen to 1020 mb, is now back down to 1018 mb. It looks like the low is just off the Panhandle and not moving much, if at all, so it just depends on where the western edge of the rain shield ends up for me. I've been getting strong east winds as well, with 25 mph gusts. It's actually chilly with the winds, with a temperature of 55. Nice change from the past week's heat and humidity. The ground is just getting saturated enough that we're getting some trees down out in the country. The water has been ponding on the roads as well, with the usual number of idiots hydroplaning and crashing. I think some people have the cruise control set for 70 no matter what's happening outside their windshield.


lookin' shrimpy
Jeff, your cyclone analysis is extremely useful and very much appreciated. As part of FAO's global locust early warning system, we watch for any high-rainfall event over desert areas between W Africa and India, including cyclones that develop in the Arabian Sea and make landfall on the Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa and Iran-Pak-Indian coast in terms of potential impact on Desert Locust. Cyclones in Oct 1948 and Nov 1966 that made landfall in Oman both caused Desert Locust plagues to develop that spread to Africa and the Indian subcontinent and took at least several years to bring under control.
Keith Cressman
Senior Locust Forecasting Officer
UN Food & Agriculture Organization
Rome, Italy
www.fao.org/ag/locusts
Quoting 12. Bucsboltsfan:



The majority of those squall lines fizzle before they hit the coast. Let's see if it holds together.

The line is still there, although it looks like it's starting to pinwheel a bit from the more or less stationary low. That might help to drive the line in your direction before it fizzles. At least it's something to watch.
If trends continue we may have tropical storm Karen later today
Quoting 19. sar2401:

Your link doesn't work for some reason. This one does. I also don't know how accurate that list is since it's missing Kate (1985), a November 15-23 hurricane that was one of the few to make landfall anywhere in Florida, and the latest hurricane to ever make landfall in the continental US.

Link


The link for me at least seemed to have an extra http. I erased the second one and the link worked.
Nut isn't Kate NOT an out of season storm? November 23 is still in season
Some opinions on the negatives and the positives.

94L's fast forward motion does not favor significant development (NW @ 17?)
The somewhat broad and weakly amplified wave in which 94L is embedded does not favor significant development.
Most of this system's circulation seems to be in the mid level with not much going on at the surface (fast forward speed).

A very nice upper-air environment and no real issues with moisture.
Added: Warm SST's
(Thanks Dr M and wash115)

Per the NHC, a TD seems most probable before it curves off to the NE
Quoting 21. sar2401:

I'm up to 3.21", with periods of heavy rain followed by much lighter rain. The barometer, which had risen to 1020 mb, is now back down to 1018 mb. It looks like the low is just off the Panhandle and not moving much, if at all, so it just depends on where the western edge of the rain shield ends up for me. I've been getting strong east winds as well, with 25 mph gusts. It's actually chilly with the winds, with a temperature of 55. Nice change from the past week's heat and humidity. The ground is just getting saturated enough that we're getting some trees down out in the country. The water has been ponding on the roads as well, with the usual number of idiots hydroplaning and crashing. I think some people have the cruise control set for 70 no matter what's happening outside their windshield.


I can't believe you are at 55F in the middle of the afternoon, and we haven't been below 63F so far this fall. The FL Panhandle and S Georgia/S Alabama really is a totally different climate. Truly (warm) temperate. It is in the upper 80s here and some intense storms are firing in the Tampa Bay area. It appears that the line of precipitation approaching from the Gulf will soon catch up to these storms.
Quoting 28. JrWeathermanFL:



Cute little thing. I wouldn't be surprised to see classification overnight, although NHC may want to wait for recon tomorrow morning. The HWRF/LGEM/SHIPS are in good agreement for a moderate, maybe strong, tropical storm at peak. Doesn't appear to be a threat to the U.S.
Any chance of 94L being Kate at 4pm today? Or will it be 10pm tonight, 4am tomorrow or 10am tomorrow?
Quoting 9. washingtonian115:

Looks like 94L is taking advantage of its surrounding environment.Why are the waters at record levels in the bahamas? These record waters fuled Joaquin.What is going on?

Just natural variation. Nothing to see here folks. Just keep moving, nothing to see here
I have been busy today and was surprised now to see that 94L has already gotten North of my Latitude here in TCI. We had one brief small shower about an hour ago.
Quoting 23. faolocust:

Jeff, your cyclone analysis is extremely useful and very much appreciated. As part of FAO's global locust early warning system, we watch for any high-rainfall event over desert areas between W Africa and India, including cyclones that develop in the Arabian Sea and make landfall on the Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa and Iran-Pak-Indian coast in terms of potential impact on Desert Locust. Cyclones in Oct 1948 and Nov 1966 that made landfall in Oman both caused Desert Locust plagues to develop that spread to Africa and the Indian subcontinent and took at least several years to bring under control.
Keith Cressman
Senior Locust Forecasting Officer
UN Food & Agriculture Organization
Rome, Italy
www.fao.org/ag/locusts


Interesting. I'm pretty well read on the subject of the future impacts of climate change, but was unaware of the connection between rainfall and locusts. So, subsistence farmers in Africa will not only have to endure El Nino induced drought, but a possible plague of locusts, as well. Worser and worser.
Very lovely afternoon here on New Providence ... the calm before the storm???
Thanks dok!
Quoting 26. JrWeathermanFL:



The link for me at least seemed to have an extra http. I erased the second one and the link worked.
Nut isn't Kate NOT an out of season storm? November 23 is still in season
Ah, yes. There are other November storms included in the list, but they all existed into at least one day in December, so Kate wouldn't qualify. I'm not sure a storm that started in November qualifies as "out of season" either, but it's not my list. :-)
Quoting 35. BahaHurican:
Very lovely afternoon here on New Providence ... the calm before the storm???
Looks to be moving north of the Bahamas, I think.
Quoting 22. Articuno:



lookin' shrimpy
Quoting 23. faolocust:

Jeff, your cyclone analysis is extremely useful and very much appreciated. As part of FAO's global locust early warning system, we watch for any high-rainfall event over desert areas between W Africa and India, including cyclones that develop in the Arabian Sea and make landfall on the Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa and Iran-Pak-Indian coast in terms of potential impact on Desert Locust. Cyclones in Oct 1948 and Nov 1966 that made landfall in Oman both caused Desert Locust plagues to develop that spread to Africa and the Indian subcontinent and took at least several years to bring under control.
Keith Cressman
Senior Locust Forecasting Officer
UN Food & Agriculture Organization
Rome, Italy
www.fao.org/ag/locusts
Interesting. Never would have connected high rainfall events with increased locust potential ..... Thanks for sharing, and welcome to the blog ....

Quoting 33. CaicosRetiredSailor:

I have been busy today and was surprised now to see that 94L has already gotten North of my Latitude here in TCI. We had one brief small shower about an hour ago.
I'm hoping the bulk of the rain stays off to the north as it passes, since Long Island and Crooked Island could do without the extra convection for now ....

Quoting 38. bappit:

Looks to be moving north of the Bahamas, I think.
Feeling hopeful ....
Current weather over Nassau....

Quoting 29. HurrMichaelOrl:



I can't believe you are at 55F in the middle of the afternoon, and we haven't been below 63F so far this fall. The FL Panhandle and S Georgia/S Alabama really is a totally different climate. Truly (warm) temperate. It is in the upper 80s here and some intense storms are firing in the Tampa Bay area. It appears that the line of precipitation approaching from the Gulf will soon catch up to these storms.
I'm closer to North Dakota, and you're closer to the Gulf. :-) Really, being located on a peninsula surrounded by warm water on three sides does make Florida its own climate zone compared to the rest of the US. I can be just as hot and humid in the summer as central Florida, but I rarely have the afternoon thunderstorms that are so common there, and help make the climate more bearable. Once we start getting these cold fronts in fall, the continental influence starts to take over here. My average high in January is 59 while you are still at 71. The record low here is -9, while it's a mere 18 in Orlando. When the Gulf doesn't cool off much, as it did last winter, you'll stay even warmer. It takes a really strong cold front with lots of cold air advection to overcome the influence of the Gulf and bring some cool weather to central Florida. We didn't see that much last year either, so you stayed warm, and south Florida stayed even warmer. I, on the other hand, got down to 10 degrees. There's a reason why people leave places like Boston and come to Florida in the winter.
Anyone else notice the JAX radar keeps going down for maintenance ? or is it a problem with the WU software ?
The NWS page seems ok.
Quoting 25. Seflhurricane:

If trends continue we may have tropical storm Karen later today
It's giving it the old college try but, even with the convection, it's not doing a great job of organizing. It's having a hard time retaining any organized convection, and it's moving too fast. Might see a TD late today but a TS doesn't seem likely before tomorrow, if at all.

Quoting 428. Grothar:



Hey, I did my best.:) Max better come back and revise his list.


uh ok?
Quoting 43. MahFL:

Anyone else notice the JAX radar keeps going down for maintenance ? or is it a problem with the WU software ?
The NWS page seems ok.
NWS radar status page says KJAX radar is up, and the times look fine on the NWS loop. Seems like a bug in the WU radar status.
Heavy rain now here in Orange Park. Temp dropped from 72 to 70.
Quoting 45. MaxWeather:



uh ok?
TC list .... I am 1 named storm away from my forecast ....
Quoting 48. BahaHurican:

TC list .... I am 1 named storm away from my forecast ....


He knows, I shot him a picture of Gro's statement, that's why Max is commenting.
Quoting 37. sar2401:

Ah, yes. There are other November storms included in the list, but they all existed into at least one day in December, so Kate wouldn't qualify. I'm not sure a storm that started in November qualifies as "out of season" either, but it's not my list. :-)
I agree it does not qualify imo. Only storms that form in December and before June should qualify.
Quoting 45. MaxWeather:



uh ok?


I hate being #14, Max. I am trying to squeeze out one good blob in the Atlantic after this one. :)
Latest forecast discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
232 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

While most of the exciting forecast action is in the long term,
it`s nonetheless very interesting to watch the development of low
pressure aloft and its modeled evolution over the next 48 to 60
hours.

Water vapor imagery shows the Low and its rounding trof/base in its
initial developmental phase now over the Red River
Valley/vicinity...already making west to east progress in the mean
ageostrophic flow.

Both the 12z solutions of the GFS/ECMWF deepen the H5 Low center 80
DM in the 24 hour period ending 12z Monday, and place its center
just north of SGF on the KS/MO line. The flow aloft ahead of this
approaching wave is difluent, and the low level synoptic circulation
around the mean surface high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic
Coastline is favorable for moisture advection to begin working in
from the south and east into our Pennyrile Ky counties as early as
Monday morning.

During the daytime and esp the pm hours Monday, we see the models
take the now closed 566 DM H5 Low to near STL. In advance of its
approach, time height cross sections show weak but broad scale
ascent from isentropic lift in the 290K to 310K surface layer. Plan
model views of 700 mb Omega depict bullseyes of the vertical motion
field over the Pennyrile of Wky, which modeled QG layer forcing
likewise supports.

All of the aforementioned will result in a good chance, even likely
chance, for wet weather to occur across our eastern counties.
Further west, parcels escape the intersection of the max uvm
field/moisture pool, so rain chances further westward in the CWA
taper to nil. Surface RH will even remain quite dry along our
northern/western tier counties into the early pm hours...after
which some evaporative moistening may occur nearing the vicinity
of the Low center`s track itself.

Rain chances linger early Monday nite, across our far eastern
counties, before dispersing with the departing Low/mean moisture
field to the east overnight. Amounts should be light, but could
approach maybe 1/4" qpf for HOP/nearby vicinity. Surface High
pressure wedges into/across the Tn Valley, in the wake of the
departing Low, effectively ending pcpn by midnight.

The Tn Valley High Pressure slides eastward during the daytime
Tuesday. This should commence to turn winds around in the SEMO
Ozarks by mid to late Tuesday pm... as the gradient starts to
tighten up there... so we bumped those speeds/gusts up about a cat
from the blend, in collab with sgf/lsx/meg.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

Main concern is our Wednesday/Wednesday night cold frontal passage.
Ahead of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, the pressure
gradient will be tightening up significantly, so south winds will be
increasing. These winds, along with increasing clouds, will keep
temperatures very mild, with lows in the 50 to 55 degree range.
Winds will increase to around 20 mph by midday Wednesday, with gusts
in the afternoon at least around 30 mph. The winds will be an
element that will need to be monitored over the next couple of
days. We`ve updated the HWO to highlight their impact on
Veteran`s Day planning.

The fast moving cold front will be just moving into western portions
of the PAH forecast area by 00z Thursday. We may see some showers
and thunderstorms in southeast Missouri Wednesday morning, but the
bulk of the activity will be Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds
fields are impressive, moisture is pretty good, but models are still
lacking somewhat in instability. Instability west of the PAH
forecast is impressive, but fizzles quite a bit for our area, but it
is still a few days out. However, with already gusty winds at the
surface, any additional wind brought to the surface by thunderstorms
could make for an interesting afternoon/evening at a minimum.

Showers and thunderstorms will quickly end from west to east from
mid Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Behind the
front, winds turn and remain westerly through the end of the work
week with a surface high off to our west. Temperatures will only
drop off to a few degrees below seasonal normals for Thursday and
Friday. It continues to look like our coldest night will be Friday
night, when the center of the surface high will be just southwest
of our area. Lows Saturday morning will be in the 30 to 35 degree
range. As the surface high continues to move east, winds will
shift back to the south. This will help temperatures begin to
moderate Saturday night into Sunday.
Quoting 47. MahFL:

Heavy rain now here in Orange Park. Temp dropped from 72 to 70.
I'm in St. Augustine and also rain with thunder-thank God. It has been very, very hot and dry. Hopefully this will be the end of summer. Mah, I tried numerous times yesterday to address your post regarding Mr. Obama, but kept getting the boot before I could finish... I have no evidence to support my statements as any events that would support them have not yet occured. But, I do think that sometime in the future someone, some where will benefit from his actions if we watch closely. And, I also believe that most politicians are inherently not trustworthy. It's the nature of the beast. Just sayin...
08/1745 UTC 22.0N 71.3W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
getting the k storm is big for us watching the final tally. maybe next season there will be guess the total ace section. so k would be 11 so far.
Quoting 21. sar2401:

I'm up to 3.21", with periods of heavy rain followed by much lighter rain. The barometer, which had risen to 1020 mb, is now back down to 1018 mb. It looks like the low is just off the Panhandle and not moving much, if at all, so it just depends on where the western edge of the rain shield ends up for me. I've been getting strong east winds as well, with 25 mph gusts. It's actually chilly with the winds, with a temperature of 55. Nice change from the past week's heat and humidity. The ground is just getting saturated enough that we're getting some trees down out in the country. The water has been ponding on the roads as well, with the usual number of idiots hydroplaning and crashing. I think some people have the cruise control set for 70 no matter what's happening outside their windshield.


Wow great to hear you're getting a soaking, I've happily had 2.26 so far, so not as much as you, but still a great soaking and ended up being just what the doctor ordered. though about 1 inch of that total fell during a 20 minute period of very intense rainfall and gusty winds along with some thunder, it got very dark outside during that also, indicating the depth of the convection and amount of water vapor. The rest fell from just hours of steady rain, as it is now.

With that said this so far has been the best rain event by far since sometime in April or march in the Spring, though I didn't live here between May 7th and August 22nd, so that period doesn't count.




I don't know about you, I'm very happy to see the cooler air and heavy rain after all the record heat and high dew points!
even though 94 only gets a 1.5 it looks good vis loop
He spelt water as waer.
Quoting 54. Loduck:

But, I do think that sometime in the future someone, some where will benefit from his actions if we watch closely.


Many people will potentially benefit from the zero chance of the pipeline having a major leak. I know there are plenty of other pipelines in the USA.
Wow, this shows you how just inaccurate rainfall estimates can be when moisture levels are really high.

Rainfall estimates are near 1 inch here in Tallahassee but my rain gauge and the airport have had over 2 inches, however where estimates are really badly under shooting the real totals are further south near the coast.
Apalachicola has been drenched with 7.29 recorded so far, while the rain estimates are only 2.5-3.0 inches there

They also record 3.77 in just 1 hour, and 5.05 in just 2 hours!

Link

I guess that's result of what happens when there is anomalously high PW's between 2.0 and 2.3 inches. It's very weird to be seeing moisture levels that high this time of year.
Meanwhile another heavy round of rain here in Orange Park, only .30in so far today though.
Good evening after another very mild day with some new November record readings in Switzerland and Austria.

Indian summer settles over Swiss cantons
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 08 Nov 2015 22:11 GMT 01:00
Temperatures hit record highs for November in Swiss mountain regions on Sunday as Switzerland experienced spring-like conditions that are forecast to continue for several days.
The mercury rose to more than 21C [70F] in Chur in the canton of Graubuenden and Binningen in the canton of Basel-Country, the warmest places in the country.
Records were set in La Chaux-de-Fonds in the canton of Neuchatel (20.4C), Crans-Montana in the canton of Valais (19C), Samedan in the canton of Graubuenden (17.7C), Chasseral in the canton of Bern (16.9C) and Mount Pilatus straddling the cantons of Lucerne and Obwalden (15.7C).
"Today is a day of absolute records," Roger Perret of MeteoNews told the ATS news agaency.
The mild weather is exceptional in Switzerland for this time of year, he said. ...


To continue: Map of temperature anomalies in Europe tomorrow:




Current airmasses over Europe with windstorms from the Atlantic in the north and high pressure in the mid and south.
Megh currently grazes the horn of Africa (Puntland/Somalia). Some track forecasts tend west very near to Aden (800.000 inhabitants).





Second rare cyclone batters Yemen, kills one - official
Source: Reuters - Sun, 8 Nov 2015 18:38 GMT
Too far south. Hostile environment in Caribbean. No chance.



Q: If each major cyclone that occurs in the Arabian Sea from 1990 to 2015 is equally likely to occur in any of those 26 years, and 7 of them occur during those years, then what is the probability that at least 2 of those 7 major cyclones occur in 2015? A: The probability is 6853443 / 250994068 = about 1 / 37, which doesn't seem too unlikely.
Rainfall prospects are looking a bit less than promising atm for the Orlando area. While there is a large area of rain and thunderstorms moving in from the GOM, it appears to be weakening as it moves inland (with the exception of a few isolated storms at the leading edge of the area of rain. Some showers and storms had developed just east and north of Orlando, but these are moving NE away from the area after just missing my location.

Rain chances for today/tonight have been lowered from 70% to 30%. Maybe the next front will bring some good soaking rainfall.
What if Cyclone Megh goes in the Red Sea? I don't think it will happen, but it is pretty far west.

Caption: Aerial video of the sinkhole outside the Meridian IHOP, taken 8 Nov 2015. This starts at the north end of the collapse and flies south. It is apparently not really a sinkhole but some kind of underground drainage collapse.

Giant sinkhole swallows International House of Pancakes parking lot
WP, By Peter Holley November 8 at 3:17 PM
See the little swirl to the left of the convection. Wants to wrap around

Middle of the night right now in Yemen, I'm sure that there will be some news and videos form there by early morning.
Lets hope everybody kept their heads down while the cyclone passed.
If the tracks take the storm any more to the west it might get into the Red Sea!

Meanwhile in Spain today a lot of heat records were broken, especially on the north coast with temps being set in Santander of 30/C well above the old record. A lot warmer than the 27/c we got in the south.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure area
located about 60 miles east-northeast of Mayaguana in the
southeastern Bahamas continue to show signs of organization. Recent
satellite images indicate that the circulation has become better
defined since this morning, and only a slight increase in
organization of the system would result in the formation of a
tropical depression or tropical storm tonight or Monday. Interests
in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of the low since a
Tropical Storm Warning may be required for a portion of the central
and northwestern Bahamas tonight or early Monday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 65. Grothar:

Too far south. Hostile environment in Caribbean. No chance.





Well, we have had bright and sunny days since Thursday. With a couple very minor sprinkles.
Looks like that's going to change tonight.....
Quoting 64. barbamz:

Megh currently grazes the horn of Africa (Puntland/Somalia). Some track forecasts tend west very near to Aden (800.000 inhabitants).





Second rare cyclone batters Yemen, kills one - official
Source: Reuters - Sun, 8 Nov 2015 18:38 GMT


Also to note is 96B. Which has really developed a strong moisture envolope and is expected to emerge off the west coast of India. Relatively flat ground, it could pose threat on down the road.

TC MEGH

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

click image for loop



India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION BOB03-2015
23:30 PM IST November 8 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards with a speed of 10 km/h during past six hours and now lays centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 11.5N 82.0E, about 260 km southeast of Chennai (43278), 250 km east southeast of Puducherry (43331) and 325 km northeast of Jaffna (43404) (Sri Lanka).

It would move west northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would cross northern Tamil Nadu coast between Karaikal and Chennai close to Puducherry around 1500 PM UTC on November 9th.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal, between 9.0N to 17.0N and west of 88.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -89C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The winds are higher over the northeast sector.. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the depression is 1004 hPa.

Additional Information
================
The convection is continuously organizing. The low level relative vorticity is 100x10-5sec-1, convergence is 20x10-5sec-1, and upper level divergence is 30x10-5sec-1. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation to the northeast. The middle and upper tropospheric winds are east southeasterly which will steer the system west northwestwards. The sea surface temperature around the region of depression is 29-30C. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center. Madden-Julian oscillation lies in phase 3 with amplitude greater than 1. It is likely to continue in phase 3 for the next 2-3 days which is favorable for intensification of the system. Most of the model suggests west northwestward movement reaching northern Tamil Nadu coast by 9th evening/night. But there is divergence among the numerical weather prediction models regarding the peak intensity which varies from deep depression to cyclonic storm.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
23:30 PM IST November 8 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh moved westwards with a speed of 20 km/h during past six hours and now lays centered over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea near 12.7N 52.4E, about 160 km west of Socotra Island (41494) (Yemen) and 510 km south southwest of Salalah (41316) (Oman).

It would move westwards initially and then west northwestwards across Gulf of Aden, weaken gradually and cross Yemen coast between 13.0N and 14.0N around 1200 PM UTC on November 10th as a severe cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T5.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over the area between 11.5N to 14.0N and 50.5E to 54.0E. The convection shows eye pattern. Minimum cloud top temperature in wall cloud region is -78C. The cloud organization shows signs of weakening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 90 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The winds are higher over the northern sector. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 966 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 12.8N 50.2E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.0N 48.5E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 13.9N 46.1E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 15.3N 44.3E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
=================
The system moved with a speed of 20 km/h during past six hours. It was due to the steering anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation located to the northeast of the system center. The system would continue to be guided westwards for next 24 hours and then west northwestwards under the influence of the above ridge and anti-cyclonic circulation.

The low level relative vorticity is 150x 10-5sec-1, convergence is 20x10-5sec-1, and upper level divergence is 10x10-5sec-1. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 28C. The ocean thermal energy is 40-50 kj/cm2 around the system center and then decreases towards Gulf of Aden. The vertical wind shear is about 10 knots around the system center. The low vertical wind shear is mitigating the adverse impact of total precipitable water. The system would weaken gradually, due to lower ocean thermal energy over Gulf of Aden and interaction with land surface.
In the latest frame the Cyclones CoC seems to be organizing well and recovering from the Impact and friction it incurred over the island.

This is still a Dangerous Cyclone swaggering westward Ho'...



The earlier 1621 UTC MV pass shows the structure well intact and a tight core improving.

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)



College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1147 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

"Six O'Clock, Winter," at the Third Avenue El. John Sloan, 1912. Click to expand.

AL, 94, 2015110818, , BEST, 0, 222N, 715W, 30, 1010, DB
AL, 94, 2015110900, , BEST, 0, 227N, 724W, 30, 1010, LO

84. 7544
94l just might be a td before the plane goes in
Quoting 77. Patrap:

TC MEGH

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

click image for loop






Almost looks like as if the eye is trying to clear out again..?

Quoting 61. Jedkins01:

Wow, this shows you how just inaccurate rainfall estimates can be when moisture levels are really high.

Rainfall estimates are near 1 inch here in Tallahassee but my rain gauge and the airport have had over 2 inches, however where estimates are really badly under shooting the real totals are further south near the coast.
Apalachicola has been drenched with 7.29 recorded so far, while the rain estimates are only 2.5-3.0 inches there

They also record 3.77 in just 1 hour, and 5.05 in just 2 hours!

Link

I guess that's result of what happens when there is anomalously high PW's between 2.0 and 2.3 inches. It's very weird to be seeing moisture levels that high this time of year.
With the combination of the front and low, it really just depended on what heavy cells happened to occur in an area. It looks like the rain is just about done here, but I have have 3.45" in the bucket. This is after 0.95" was predicted yesterday. From watching the radar today, I'm sure there were other places not far from me that got even more rain but there won't be any gauges out in the woods to capture it. With a combination of 2" PWATS and good lifting mechanisms, all that can be accurately predicted is some places will get a lot of rain. As you say, certainly unusual weather for early November, but the rain was very welcome. The cooler air is also nice after such a long stretch of warm and humid weather. It finally feels like fall.
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N72W CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TO THE WNW JUST NORTH OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
Quoting 69. barbamz:


Caption: Aerial video of the sinkhole outside the Meridian IHOP, taken 8 Nov 2015. This starts at the north end of the collapse and flies south. It is apparently not really a sinkhole but some kind of underground drainage collapse.

Giant sinkhole swallows International House of Pancakes parking lot
WP, By Peter Holley November 8 at 3:17 PM

Looks like a creek was channelized under what became that parking lot. I can't tell what was put on top of the channel before the parking lot was built but, whatever it was, it obviously failed due to the heavy rain. Making creeks run underground sometimes doesn't meet with the approval of the creek. :-)
94L....the NHC threw out their pre-warning at 7EST that they'd declare a cyclone at 11 and throw up real Tropical storm warnings. Since then, the very cute little tight LLC has exposed herself and drifts off due west at 5MPH devoid of convection, which is all east of her. Puts the NHC in a tough position on a Sunday night in November when forecasters aren't exactly at battle stations. Any sign of convection building over the lil' coc will cause a formal declaration....even devoid of convection I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD at 11.
Looks like we may get TD Twelve or TS Kate at 10pm. Remember, in standard time, advisories are one hour earlier.
2ND LARGEST COMMUNITY OF 2ND LARGEST ISLAND OF 2ND LARGEST COUNTRY OF 2ND-MOST-POPULOUS HEMISPHERE - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: Pirlangimpi reportedly had a new record all-time hottest temperature of 38.7 C / 101.7 F on November 8, 2015. Pirlangimpi is the 2nd largest community of Melville Island, which is the 2nd largest island of Australia (not including the main landmass). By area, Australia is the 2nd largest country that is at least partially in the southern hemisphere, which is the 2nd-most-populous hemisphere (with respect to N & S). "Pirlangimpi" is misspelled or has an alternate spelling in this news article:

Link
Quoting 89. CosmicEvents:

94L....the NHC threw out their pre-warning at 7EST that they'd declare a cyclone at 11 and throw up real Tropical storm warnings. Since then, the very cute little tight LLC has exposed herself and drifts off due west at 5MPH devoid of convection, which is all east of her. Puts the NHC in a tough position on a Sunday night in November when forecasters aren't exactly at battle stations. Any sign of convection building over the lil' coc will cause a formal declaration....even devoid of convection I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD at 11.


UH...OK?

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure area
located about 60 miles east-northeast of Mayaguana in the
southeastern Bahamas continue to show signs of organization. Recent
satellite images indicate that the circulation has become better
defined since this morning, and only a slight increase in
organization of the system would result in the formation of a
tropical depression or tropical storm tonight or Monday. Interests
in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of the low since a
Tropical Storm Warning may be required for a portion of the central
and northwestern Bahamas tonight or early Monday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

94L...

LLC looks to be going under the convection now.It has also slowed down which is good
Quoting 67. HurrMichaelOrl:

Rainfall prospects are looking a bit less than promising atm for the Orlando area. While there is a large area of rain and thunderstorms moving in from the GOM, it appears to be weakening as it moves inland (with the exception of a few isolated storms at the leading edge of the area of rain. Some showers and storms had developed just east and north of Orlando, but these are moving NE away from the area after just missing my location.

Rain chances for today/tonight have been lowered from 70% to 30%. Maybe the next front will bring some good soaking rainfall.

Its really dry here HurrMichaelOrl....live in sanford.....all the rain just dissipates as it approaches
.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

Geostationary satellite imagery during the late afternoon showed
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
near the southeastern Bahamas had become better defined. During the
past few hours, thunderstorm activity has increased over the eastern
portion of the circulation, and the system has acquired enough
organization to be classified as a tropical depression, the twelfth
of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, which is based a data T-number of 2.0 from TAFB and
recent ship observations. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression Monday
morning and should provide a better assessment of cyclone's
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 305/12 kt. The depression is
forecast to move northwestward tonight, then turn north-
northwestward and northward on Monday and Monday night while it
moves around the western portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the west-central Atlantic. The tropical cyclone should accelerate
northeastward on Tuesday when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.
The track guidance is good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC
forecast is near the middle of the model envelope.

The depression is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and
over warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two.
This should allow for strengthening and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the
intensity consensus model IVCN. The small tropical cyclone is
expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area
and frontal system that will be moving off the southeast United
States coast in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 23.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.0N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.2N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 29.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 32.2N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0000Z...Absorbed by extratropical low

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 89. CosmicEvents:

94L....the NHC threw out their pre-warning at 7EST that they'd declare a cyclone at 11 and throw up real Tropical storm warnings. Since then, the very cute little tight LLC has exposed herself and drifts off due west at 5MPH devoid of convection, which is all east of her. Puts the NHC in a tough position on a Sunday night in November when forecasters aren't exactly at battle stations. Any sign of convection building over the lil' coc will cause a formal declaration....even devoid of convection I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD at 11.
Yeah, I think we see a TD at 10/9 CST. It's too close to the Bahamas, and the TD will allow the Bahamas Met Service to hoist TS warnings. I'm still not impressed with the overall organization of this storm, but things might improve by tomorrow.

Edit: Never mind, they declared TD 12 while I was typing. :-)
Quoting 95. sanflee76:


Its really dry here HurrMichaelOrl....live in sanford.....all the rain just dissipates as it approaches


Exactly. These are absolutely tremendous thunderstorms 30 miles to our west. Wherever these are affecting must be getting hammered and will no doubt get inches of rain. Despite this, based on the radar, I think Orlando and points further east will be lucky to get a brief sprinkle. Sanford may be just far enough west and north to get some thunderstorm action. But not by much.
Anyone noticed Megh has an eye visible on IR, I think it might be strengthening. Two hurricanes for Yemen?
Quoting 91. DCSwithunderscores:

2ND LARGEST COMMUNITY OF 2ND LARGEST ISLAND OF 2ND LARGEST COUNTRY OF 2ND-MOST-POPULOUS HEMISPHERE - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: Pirlangimpi reportedly had a new record all-time hottest temperature of 38.7 C / 101.7 F on November 8, 2015. Pirlangimpi is the 2nd largest community of Melville Island, which is the 2nd largest island of Australia (not including the main landmass). By area, Australia is the 2nd largest country that is at least partially in the southern hemisphere, which is the 2nd-most-populous hemisphere (with respect to N & S). "Pirlangimpi" is misspelled or has an alternate spelling in this news article:

Link
And it's only November, our May!
Late season storm! This season has excelled beyond all expert expectations. Some here with their "educated guesses" nailed it. Kudos! Can't wait for next year. Climate is going to do bad things to Florida. Revenge is best served on a platter cold. JMO.
Quoting 102. GeoffreyWPB:




When have I seen a similar forecast track before? hmmmm...
So Dr. Masters mentioned in a post that, post-Patricia, he predicted the Atlantic to be shut down for the rest of hurricane season, and that we'd see at least one or two more in the eastern Pacific.

So far, it is the Atlantic with the last gasp as the season for both basins winds down. Considering this is a relatively small cyclone, especially in comparison to its predecessor in the same region (that dreaded Joaquin guy), I'm concerned that this could also surprise given the still-record-warm SSTs there. Joaquin was not projected to make it passed TD/minimal TS status either. Obviously I doubt this'll become a super destructive cat 4, but I am not surprised to see a stronger system than what they are forecasting.

Many locales in the Bahamas still inundated... this will certainly set rebuilding efforts back in those hardest-hit islands.

On another note... insane what has been going on in the Arabian Sea. I am so sorry for those in Socotra... very unprecedented for them.
TD 12 isn't moving as far north as the NHC has it moving... looks more WNW rather than NW
Quoting 105. DeepSeaRising:

Late season storm! This season has excelled beyond all expert expectations. Some here with their "educated guesses" nailed it. Kudos! Can't wait for next year. Climate is going to do bad things to Florida. Revenge is best served on a platter cold. JMO.
What kind of bad things?
Quoting 108. Camerooski:

TD 12 isn't moving as far north as the NHC has it moving... looks more WNW rather than NW


WKCamerooski!
Quoting 93. GeoffreyWPB:

94L...


Probably its on its way to become Kate. I hope Larry can form in the next few week so we can end at an even number of storms.
Quoting 102. GeoffreyWPB:


Nobody's playing this time around ....
A few more storms forming closer to center. We'll see if this north side wraps soon.
Quoting 106. HurrMichaelOrl:



When have I seen a similar forecast track before? hmmmm...
I admit I wouldn't be surprised to see this system make it a couple of degrees further west before it turns .... not that I'm expecting it to make it to Florida or anything, but it seems the GoM low and the associated front may not push eastward as quickly as currently portrayed by most models.

However, we shall see. Meanwhile, it seems the SE and Central Bahamas are under the gun - AGAIN ..... :o/
Quoting 107. LostTomorrows:

So Dr. Masters mentioned in a post that, post-Patricia, he predicted the Atlantic to be shut down for the rest of hurricane season, and that we'd see at least one or two more in the eastern Pacific.

So far, it is the Atlantic with the last gasp as the season for both basins winds down. Considering this is a relatively small cyclone, especially in comparison to its predecessor in the same region (that dreaded Joaquin guy), I'm concerned that this could also surprise given the still-record-warm SSTs there. Joaquin was not projected to make it passed TD/minimal TS status either. Obviously I doubt this'll become a super destructive cat 4, but I am not surprised to see a stronger system than what they are forecasting.

Many locales in the Bahamas still inundated... this will certainly set rebuilding efforts back in those hardest-hit islands.

On another note... insane what has been going on in the Arabian Sea. I am so sorry for those in Socotra... very unprecedented for them.


For sure. Even the best and brightest have only educated guesses based on past seasons to go off of. This new climate is unpredictable to a tee.
Quoting 109. Kenfa03:

What kind of bad things?


Fourth time I've typed this. No idea what's going on. The kind of bad things, that Florida historically, has been known for hurricane wise.
Lets see if this can rapidly intensify until tomorrow night lol.
Aha! Blog hole!
Aha! I finally have gotten caught in the blog hole !!!!
Quoting 108. Camerooski:

TD 12 isn't moving as far north as the NHC has it moving... looks more WNW rather than NW
Weebles wobble .... motion over the last 24 has been N of WNW ....

Something else to consider: the synoptics favor a faster OTS movement as the system strengthens. Hopefully this won't turn into a battle of the titans [TS vs. Front] right over these islands. A neat, clean exit would be quite acceptable ,......
I'm off for now .... tomorrow will be .... interesting ....
Quoting 109. Kenfa03:

What kind of bad things?


Have typed this three times, so sorry if this is a duplicate. Doesn't show it's posted. The kind of bad things that Florida, historically, has been known for hurricane wise.

Quoting 105. DeepSeaRising:

Late season storm! This season has excelled beyond all expert expectations. Some here with their "educated guesses" nailed it. Kudos! Can't wait for next year. Climate is going to do bad things to Florida. Revenge is best served on a platter cold. JMO.
As much as I'd enjoy a decent hurricane to chase in 2016 (hopefully in the absence of El Nino), that's a pretty ballsy claim.
I assume you have evidence for it?
Quoting 109. Kenfa03:

What kind of bad things?


The kind, historically, Florida is known for hurricane wise.
Quoting 109. Kenfa03:

What kind of bad things?


The kind of bad things that Florida is historically known for hurricane wise.
Aha! Blog hole!
Quoting 66. DCSwithunderscores:

Q: If each major cyclone that occurs in the Arabian Sea from 1990 to 2015 is equally likely to occur in any of those 26 years, and 7 of them occur during those years, then what is the probability that at least 2 of those 7 major cyclones occur in 2015? A: The probability is 6853443 / 250994068 = about 1 / 37, which doesn't seem too unlikely.


A lot of major hurricanes occur in the Atlantic, but how make landfall in the U.S.? Also the eastern U.S. coast from Texas to Maine all are wet climate regions while the Arabian coastal areas are parched dry and are lucky of they get 2-3 inches for an entire year.

Quoting 123. KoritheMan:


As much as I'd enjoy a decent hurricane to chase in 2016 (hopefully in the absence of El Nino), that's a pretty ballsy claim.
I assume you have evidence for it?


Damn you Kori! No, just next year's likely weak El-Nino or neutral season should see SST's at near record and wind shear will be nothing like we've seen this year. Based on historical norms, we should see Florida's run of good fortune end. I wish it weren't so. But I believe it will be. My evidence for the future is lacking brother, so good to see you, wish you and yours well.
Quoting 123. KoritheMan:


As much as I'd enjoy a decent hurricane to chase in 2016 (hopefully in the absence of El Nino), that's a pretty ballsy claim.
I assume you have evidence for it?


Typing this now for the second time. Never had this happen before here. SST's will be at near record and with a weak El-Nino or neutral, Florida's run of fortune is likely to end next season. Evidence no, projections is what I'm going off of. So good to see you again Kori! You've been missed. Trying to post his now for the fourth time. WTF?
If we're comparing this year to '97 then there is no comparison. '97 had only 3 stoms after August 1st. I believe we should be at 8 tomorrow. Every event acts on it's own and does not guarantee similar impacts.
Something's not working on the blogs tonight, it won't let me post my latest update for some strange reason :(

Anyway, I am currently forecasting that TD 12 will reach a peak of about 50 mph max winds near the center, with the center arriving into the northwest Bahamas by tomorrow night (7 PM EDT).
Aha! I see we've gone down the blog hole again!
Quoting 123. KoritheMan:


As much as I'd enjoy a decent hurricane to chase in 2016 (hopefully in the absence of El Nino), that's a pretty ballsy claim.
I assume you have evidence for it?


This is becoming obnoxious. Fourth time I've typed this. Next year shows a weak El-Nino or neutral. Should see record SST's and reduced shear. Florida's run is up. Just based on observations of next years conditions. No proof. Great to see you Kori. You've been missed.
Nothing, nada drop. Nothing to see here folks. No front induced precip, no late season cyclone from the east, no gusty winds or exciting weather of any kind, whatsoever. Let the cold front silently move in and give us the much anticipated cool down to near seasonal temperatures.
Normally I blog as NCHurricane2009, but something's not working right (this is an alternate screename). I can't post comments or new blog updates and am trying to use this alternate screename as a test. Anyone else?
Quoting 132. BahaHurican:

Aha! I see we've gone down the blog hole again!


Baha, you've broken the blog.
hot hot hot hot hot .... I'm reminded of a very old Johnny Carson joke which Ed McMahon of course laughed at - it was hot today - so hot I saw two hydrants fighting over a dog.

From the KW NWS discussion

.CLIMATE...
A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7TH. THIS ONCE AGAIN BROKE
THE WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 80 DEGREES...SET IN 1986.
SINCE NOVEMBER 1ST...KEY WEST HAS AVERAGED A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF
80.1 DEGREES...WHICH BLOWS AWAY THE PREVIOUS WARMEST NIGHT STRETCH BY
2.2 DEGREES. THE RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS ALSO HELPED BUMP THE 2015
CAMPAIGN TO 3RD ON THE LIST OF THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD THROUGH
NOVEMBER 6TH...COMING IN WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 80.3 DEGREES.

&&
Quoting 135. MIHurricane2009:

Normally I blog as NCHurricane2009, but something's not working right (this is an alternate screename). I can't post comments or new blog updates and am trying to use this alternate screename as a test. Anyone else?


Yeah, blog seems to be broken. I notice that a lot of the comments are out of order.
Quoting 105. DeepSeaRising:

Late season storm! This season has excelled beyond all expert expectations. Some here with their "educated guesses" nailed it. Kudos! Can't wait for next year. Climate is going to do bad things to Florida. Revenge is best served on a platter cold. JMO.
I tend to agree. I'm getting out of Florida, for good, as I really can't afford to lose everything. It may not happen next year, but it's metaphysically certain in my mind that Florida will take some major hits in the next 1-3 years. The state was never meant to be populated, and certainly not on the east coast. The Seminole indians learned that years ago.
ULL to the SW of the system.

Quoting 109. Kenfa03:

What kind of bad things?


The kind of things Florida is historically know for, hurricane wise.
This has a window of about 20 hours for rapid intensification.Anyone wanna bet $20 at 70 to 1 odds that this reaches Hurricane strength?.
If this were August, 12L would likely take a path up the straits, into the Gulf, and then fun time for me. If only. :)
Quoting 102. GeoffreyWPB:


No offense, but this is getting so annoying with the same track after track, the Bahamas doesn't need any of this, they already went through Joaquin. I mean it will likely be a nuisance more than anything else, but my God can we at least get a break in the pattern, the east coast of Florida could actually use the rain from this. Seriously, it's like every storm that forms east just recurves away now.
Hello
If this is going to wrap around, and it seems like it will, it would be great if it would wait until it has passed the little string of islands from Crooked Island to San Sal ....

For some reason I am now totally wide awake.....

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
100 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island, and Long Cay in the
southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 73.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn
toward the north-northwest and north are expected later today and
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
forecast to pass near or over portions of the central Bahamas later
this morning and near or over the northwestern Bahamas this
afternoon and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas through this morning and will
spread over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the Bahamas through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan
Looks like 12 is really ramping up its heavy thunderstorm activity near its centre. Kate tomorrow morning, perhaps?
Aha! Blog hole!
Quoting 144. GTstormChaserCaleb:

No offense, but this is getting so annoying with the same track after track, the Bahamas doesn't need any of this, they already went through Joaquin. I mean it will likely be a nuisance more than anything else, but my God can we at least get a break in the pattern, the east coast of Florida could actually use the rain from this. Seriously, it's like every storm that forms east just recurves away now.


It's November, dude. It'd be more surprising if it didn't recurve.

Also, I'm calling bs on what you're saying. You're in Florida so you'd like a tropical storm, right? Then say that. No need to drag it out and say otherwise. :P
Rapid strengthening
.

96B.
Good morning with the latest from Megh (few informations apart from satellite pics available though).








The first 30 or 40 seconds very probably are pics from Socotra yesterday (saw them arriving on twitter during the day), the others from Chapala. This video from Socotra with Megh was already posted in an earlier blog yesterday (for those who have not seen it).

Best wishes to the Bahamas today! Guess the blog will be busy ;-)
again posts wont post.
Well, the event rain total ended up being 2.46 at my apartment, 2.55 at the airport, and 7.78 at Apalachicola. Today was just what the doctor ordered!

Here comes another round for the overnight as we speak too.

Quoting 128. DeepSeaRising:



Damn you Kori! No, just next year's likely weak El-Nino or neutral season should see SST's at near record and wind shear will be nothing like we've seen this year. Based on historical norms, we should see Florida's run of good fortune end. I wish it weren't so. But I believe it will be. My evidence for the future is lacking brother, so good to see you, wish you and yours well.
That word... should never be used empirically. :)
Good to see you too.
Yeah Baha, I was making an article list and the blog kept eating it. I gave up.
AMZ117-091515-
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-
1009 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.OVERNIGHT...ATLC EXPOSURES...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...
BECOMING E 20 TO 25 KT LATE. ELSEWHERE...E WINDS 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.MON...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ATLC EXPOSURES...
SE TO S WINDS 35 TO 40 KT...BECOMING S 15 TO 20 KT LATE.
ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING E TO
SE 15 TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$
western atlantic is getting the mojo
Quoting 136. Astrometeor:



Baha, you've broken the blog.
LOL .... seems like I did it several times last night, too ..... :o)



Looks like "Clash of the Titans" over the NW Bahamas today .... only good thing about this is that so far it seems the bulk of the rain will stay N of Crooked Island and Long Island. Additionally this is moving fast enough, at 15 mph, to minimize rainfall totals. I'm expecting a slow-down in forward speed as the day progresses, but hopefully the worst of the wx will be past the central Bahamas by then. I do believe parts of the NW Bahamas, especially Eleuthera and Abaco, can expect some wild wx tonight. However, we can hope it won't get worse than that - there's really not much time to do much more than secure boats and loose items in yards ....

Quoting 140. Grothar:

ULL to the SW of the system.


I saw that about the same time last night, but the blog was so freaked out I couldn't get anything to post. Do you think it's close enough to be a player? I say prolly not.
Quoting 144. GTstormChaserCaleb:

No offense, but this is getting so annoying with the same track after track, the Bahamas doesn't need any of this, they already went through Joaquin. I mean it will likely be a nuisance more than anything else, but my God can we at least get a break in the pattern, the east coast of Florida could actually use the rain from this. Seriously, it's like every storm that forms east just recurves away now.
Seriously Caleb ... It's hard for me to expect a track that takes this into the FL coast in November .... from THIS side, anyway. Much more so than October, one can expect a front to recurve a TC in our basin at this time of year. I'm hoping the front forces "future Kate" off to the east before it has a chance to drop a lot of rain here.....
Quoting 168. BahaHurican:

Seriously Caleb ... It's hard for me to expect a track that takes this into the FL coast in November .... from THIS side, anyway. Much more so than October, one can expect a front to recurve a TC in our basin at this time of year. I'm hoping the front forces "future Kate" off to the east before it has a chance to drop a lot of rain here.....


Literally it all just comes down to timing. There's no magic or locked in pattern or whatever. It's literally just a trough. People's disillusions don't change that.
Quoting 169. KoritheMan:



Literally it all just comes down to timing. There's no magic or locked in pattern or whatever. It's literally just a trough. People's disillusions don't change that.
I'm hoping this will be a "Captain Trough" ..... lol ....
Interesting comment in the 4 a.m. discussion:

The center of the depression has been moving a little bit faster and
toward the west-northwest overnight, and the initial motion estimate
is 295/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move around the western
periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the western
Atlantic, and its motion should turn back to the northwest later
today and north-northwest by tonight. While the dynamical models
all show this general scenario, the depression is already out of
sync with the dynamical model trackers and more in line with the
simpler BAM trajectory models. Therefore, the official forecast has
been placed to the west of the various consensus models during the
first 24-36 hours to lean closer to the BAM models and the solutions
observed in the dynamical model fields.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
700 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...



SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF CAT ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a turn toward the north and
north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is forecast to pass near or over portions of the
central Bahamas this morning and near or over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas through this morning and will
spread over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Bahamas through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart


Early visible of TD 12.

Quoting 170. BahaHurican:

I'm hoping this will be a "Captain Trough" ..... lol ....
Save the Bahamas.lol The trough had to be demoted after it teamed up with Joaquin last month and caused server flooding.I guess on the plus side it did save Florida and the east coast billions of more dollars and significant loss of life.
hot off the press

04NOV2015 23.4 2.1 27.8 2.8 29.5 2.8 30.3 1.7

nino 1 and 2 2.1

nino 3 2.8

nino 3.4 2.8

nino 4 1.7



we are now tide with 1997/1998 EL Nino now whats see if we can break it by hiting 2.9 too 3.0 in the next update



Link
Quoting 174. washingtonian115:

Save the Bahamas.lol The trough had to be demoted after it teamed up with Joaquin last month and caused server flooding.I guess on the plus side it did save Florida and the east coast billions of more dollars and significant loss of life.
LOL ... true .... I think that was a fake Captain Trough last month .....

So far so good here. Eastern islands are definitely in for some gusty rainy wx as the day progresses.... but what else happens is going to depend greatly on the speed at which that trough pushes east.

I gotta run, but I'll check in when I get to work. Later, skater....
Quoting 176. BahaHurican:

LOL ... true .... I think that was a fake Captain Trough last month .....

So far so good here. Eastern islands are definitely in for some gusty rainy wx as the day progresses.... but what else happens is going to depend greatly on the speed at which that trough pushes east.

I gotta run, but I'll check in when I get to work. Later, skater....
Yes it was.Normally the trough comes in and clears the Bahamas in time as well,putting up the shield but it was to late as Joaquin was already to far south.
Quoting 170. BahaHurican:

I'm hoping this will be a "Captain Trough" ..... lol ....


>_> not cool. That's one of the reasons I left this place! :P

It seriously was, but I know you're just being facetious. I've known for you... over a quarter of my life probably. haha
Quoting 178. KoritheMan:



>_> not cool. That's one of the reasons I left this place! :P

It seriously was, but I know you're just being facetious. I've known for you... over a quarter of my life probably. haha
Dude, todally .... lol .... I couldn't resist ....
So really gone this time .... no blogging in the car, you know ....

[hate Monday morning traffic]
A name should never stop anyone from leaving the blog.lol (would post meme but it'll likely be removed) You can't please everyone and that's just life.
Good morning

It's a beautiful 81, feeling like 87, with a few clouds wandering around kind of morning here on the island today.

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy

P.S. Kori, great to see you again!

Quoting 180. washingtonian115:

A name should never stop anyone from leaving the blog.lol (would post meme but it'll likely be removed) You can't please everyone and that's just life.


When you've been forecasting as long as I have, it becomes a pain in the *** to see people act like a trough in the middle of the summer is something magical. "Captain" makes it seem... sentient, somehow (except when you use it I guess, lol), and denotes a lack of understanding of how the atmosphere actually works. Recurves are the norm, not the exception, with the east coast in particular saved a lot by troughs.

Like, I could probably tolerate it if only one or two people were saying it. But when 60% of the blog is whining about it every time there's a recurve (or worse, a model trend), it gets really annoying.

Also factor in all of the "Back in my day, this never happened! We had storms!" Uh, how do you know? Is memory suddenly empirical?

I dunno, wash. I can take a joke, but that one in particular... rubs me the wrong way. Because people actually believe it.

And of course you can't please everyone. Obviously you can't. Nor am I entitled to anything here. But that's why I don't come around very much anymore. I know what I like and what I don't like. Right now I'm looking more at the debate/knowledge side of the field than anything else. I still like the majority of everyone here. :)
Nino 3.4 & Nino 4 have tied or smashed records as of this weeks update. What a intense El-Nino this is becoming and its still intensifying. As of this update we will almost certain;y surpass 3C in the next few weeks.

04NOV2015 23.4 2.1 27.8 2.8 29.5 2.8 30.3 1.7

Unbelievable and to this this event isn't done strengthening!
I'd hate to think a name would make anyone leave.

/what's everyone lol'ing at?

;)
Good Morning. The Florida Gulf Coast has received several inches of rain since yesterday and it has been raining steady in Tallahassee this morning. We are very lucky that the low crossing us did not develop and that winds have been light. All of the trees/branches are thoroughly drenched across the Panhandle/Big Bend region and any wind gusts would have brought down tons of trees and branches on houses, cars, and people if this had happened. We needed the rain but not trees down.


Southeast sector loop
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
328 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A 1012mb low is located about 40 miles south of the Florida
Panhandle this morning, slowly moving northeast. The low is riding
along a stationary front stretching from the far southeastern Big
Bend west across the northeastern Gulf. Southerly flow above the
surface is lifting the moist and unstable airmass over the front,
generating a large area of light to moderate rain across the
Panhandle, spreading into SE Alabama and SW Georgia. In addition,
thunderstorms are firing offshore near the low, and along/south of
the stationary boundary.

Through the morning hours, the surface low is forecast to continue
moving northeast, with the stationary boundary beginning to slide
back north as a warm front. This may allow some of the thunderstorms
(and associated heavier rain) to impact areas south of I-10 through
mid-morning. Thereafter, the forcing is expected to weaken and shift
eastward, with rain ending from west to east from late morning
through the afternoon. Will let the ongoing Flood Watches continue
through 15Z.

Quoting 186. MonsterTrough:

I'd hate to think a name would make anyone leave.

/what's everyone lol'ing at?

;)


Me, apparently. I'm the laughing stock this morning. >_>

Not that I mind. I laugh at myself all the time. I'm kind of morbid/degrading like that. ;)


If you look close enough, you'll see water evaporating off the screen in Nino 3.4. Wow, all of this heat in the oceans is going to be bad news for the US this winter.
Quoting 161. Jedkins01:

Well, the event rain total ended up being 2.46 at my apartment, 2.55 at the airport, and 7.78 at Apalachicola. Today was just what the doctor ordered!

Here comes another round for the overnight as we speak too.


Nearly 13" of rain in JAX. Picked up only .30 @ my location but to my west in Lake County 3" to 5" fell over the weekend and it came with lots of lightning too.
Quoting 191. StormTrackerScott:



Nearly 13" of rain in JAX. Picked up only .30 @ my location but to my west in Lake County 3" to 5" fell over the weekend and it came with lots of lightning too.


Only 0.07" for me yesterday, but I'm hoping some of this convection in the Gulf holds together as I could use some rain.
Quoting 189. tampabaymatt:



If you look close enough, you'll see water evaporating off the screen in Nino 3.4. Wow, all of this heat in the oceans is going to be bad news for the US this winter.


Reports of 13" of rain in Jacksonville Beach. Just incredible and is a sure sign of what FL is in for this Winter. Last night the lightning in my area was similar to the Summer months. Almost every second lightning was flashing to my west with those storms in Lake County
The big picture for the West Atlantic including the TD near the Bahamas and relative shear levels: shear is not too conductive for any significant development of the TD as it heads towards absorption by the trof moving offshore of Florida/Georgia.







AL, 12, 2015110912, , BEST, 0, 241N, 748W, 40, 1008, TS
Quoting 188. KoritheMan:



Me, apparently. I'm the laughing stock this morning. >_>

Not that I mind. I laugh at myself all the time. I'm kind of morbid/degrading like that. ;)


A meme was made of me as well infact several members made them about me when I said back in the Spring that this El-Nino was going to reach 1997 levels or stronger. Some of those members haven't been back since this event has taken off.
197. beell


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST MON NOV 09 2015

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO...IL...SW IND...WRN KY...NW TN AND NRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS THE GREAT PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY OUTSIDE THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REACH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY EVENING.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG DIFFLUENCE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 95 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SE NEB SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKLATEX. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EWD DURING THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY EWD WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IA SWD ACROSS WRN MO INTO WRN AR.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...THE FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH CELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A NARROW LINE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE MARGINAL QUALITY OF THE MOIST SECTOR.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS SW IND...WRN KY AND NW TN WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT BECOMING ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 11/09/2015
GFS showing another Gulf system next week. Looks as if the El-Nino torrents of rain on FL are starting to begin.

Quoting 193. StormTrackerScott:



Reports of 13" of rain in Jacksonville Beach. Just incredible and is a sure sign of what FL is in for this Winter. Last night the lightning in my area was similar to the Summer months. Almost every second lightning was flashing to my west with those storms in Lake County


I'm at exactly 72" of rain for the year. Just incredible how much rain has fallen in C FL this year.
Quoting 188. KoritheMan:



Me, apparently. I'm the laughing stock this morning. >_>

Not that I mind. I laugh at myself all the time. I'm kind of morbid/degrading like that. ;)


I can't imagine how tense I would be if I didnt!



Quoting 195. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 12, 2015110912, , BEST, 0, 241N, 748W, 40, 1008, TS


Recon found 35-40kt surface winds and that confirms it's now Tropical Storm Kate.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 51m51 minutes ago
Nino 4 is 0.3C warmer in absolute or anomaly values than the previous weekly records-impressive! #elnino #climate

000
WTNT62 KNHC 091319
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
820 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that
Tropical Depression Twelve has strengthened to Tropical Storm Kate.
The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 820 AM EST...1320 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 74.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
The Caribbean has been pretty dry the last several weeks and nice to see them get rain over the past several days with more on the way; good to fill those cisterns as you start heading into Winter in a few weeks.



Quoting 199. tampabaymatt:



I'm at exactly 72" of rain for the year. Just incredible how much rain has fallen in C FL this year.


You should surpass 80" as models are looking much wetter going forward. I think this event over the weekend across N FL was a wake up call to just how much moisture is being sent into the atmosphere across the Southern US thanks to El-Nino.
There you have it; with Kate we have had 11 named storms this season. Kate around Thanksgiving of 1985 gave Tallahassee a big wallop with tons of trees down when it came ashore at Mexico Beach.
I see we have TS Kate now. Looks like some folks on here jumped the gun when they said the season was over. Particularly Taz. No offense dude...I thought we were done, too.

NHC Floater Site
Jacksonville really took it on the chin and its not over for them as more heavy rain is coming.

Quoting 196. StormTrackerScott:



A meme was made of me as well infact several members made them about me when I said back in the Spring that this El-Nino was going to reach 1997 levels or stronger. Some of those members haven't been back since this event has taken off.


I should apologize for my tone back then I guess.

Being dismissive was fine, given that it's so historically rare, but I should've been nicer since I respect you and all. :)
With the jet stream currently stuck over the UK, bringing gales and heavy rain for the foreseeable future, I expect we might get a visit from Kate, as it recurves out into the Atlantic and is picked up by the jet. That might be interesting.
Quoting 208. fmbill:

I see we have TS Kate now. Looks like some folks on here jumped the gun when they said the season was over. Particularly Taz. No offense dude...I thought we were done, too.

NHC Floater Site



So did the doc, in a blog about Patricia's aftermath he made predictions for the varying basins of the Northern Hemisphere. For a bit the Atlantic was looking like September, and even the deep tropics are still showing a bit of kick now. Although, I am pretty sure Kate will be this season's last gasp.
wow, TS Kate
15mph movement is good for the islands. We saw what Joaquin's meandering did for strengthening.
214. beell
METAR text: MYNN 091300Z 09005KT FEW020 27/23 A3004
Conditions at: MYNN (NASSAU INTL , BS) observed 1300 UTC 09 November 2015
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 79%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.04 inches Hg (1017.4 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: missing
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

METAR text: MBPV 091300Z 12010KT 9999 SCT010 BKN050 29/26 Q1016
Conditions at: MBPV (PROVIDENCIALES , BS) observed 1300 UTC 09 November 2015
Temperature: 29.0°C (84°F)
Dewpoint: 26.0°C (79°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.00 inches Hg (1016.0 mb)
Winds: from the ESE (120 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 knots; 5.2 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: 5000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 5000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

METAR text: MYGF 091300Z 00000KT 9999 SCT015 26/24 A3003
Conditions at: MYGF (FREEPORT INTL A , BS) observed 1300 UTC 09 November 2015
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.03 inches Hg (1017.0 mb)
Winds: calm
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1500 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time
Quoting 210. KoritheMan:



I should apologize for my tone back then I guess.

Being dismissive was fine, given that it's so historically rare, but I should've been nicer since I respect you and all. :)


You were no problem @ all it was a few others and now that this El-Nino will likely surpass 3C I can't even imagine what they are thinking now. This will go down as the Strongest El-Nino of All Time. Nino 4 rising like it is is a bad sign that this El-Nino is still almost 2 months from reaching its peak.
The TAO sites went down over the weekend but before they did those charts were showing 9C anomalies building sub surface.
218. beell
Tiny Kate has a tight pressure gradient of about 8 mb.
Quoting 197. beell:



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST MON NOV 09 2015

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO...IL...SW IND...WRN KY...NW TN AND NRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS THE GREAT PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY OUTSIDE THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REACH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY EVENING.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG DIFFLUENCE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 95 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SE NEB SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKLATEX. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EWD DURING THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY EWD WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IA SWD ACROSS WRN MO INTO WRN AR.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...THE FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH CELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A NARROW LINE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE MARGINAL QUALITY OF THE MOIST SECTOR.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS SW IND...WRN KY AND NW TN WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT BECOMING ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 11/09/2015


YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!
ENHANCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS!!!!!!! ON DAY 3!!!!!! ON VETERANS DAY!!!!!!!!
LET IT STORM! LET IT STORM! LET IT STOOOOOORM!!! LET IT STORM! LET IT STORM!
Quoting 215. StormTrackerScott:



You were no problem @ all it was a few others and now that this El-Nino will likely surpass 3C I can't even imagine what they are thinking now. This will go down as the Strongest El-Nino of All Time. Nino 4 rising like it is is a bad sign that this El-Nino is still almost 2 months from reaching its peak.


Since we are entering into historical levels, much uncertainty in how it will effect the atmosphere must be carefully considered. History-past tells us what might pan out, but this is new ground we are treading on and it will be interesting to see how different it will be this year compared to last El Nino episodes. There will always be variables.
Quoting 220. fmbill:



Since we are entering into historical levels, much uncertainty in how it will effect the atmosphere must be carefully considered. History-past tells us what might pan out, but this is new ground we are treading on and it will be interesting to see how different it will be this year compared to last El Nino episodes. There will always be variables.


A historic El-Nino as this one pretty much gty's a active Winter in FL. Any variables pretty much get thrown out as El-Nino overwhelms the atmosphere.
Quoting 217. StormTrackerScott:

The TAO sites went down over the weekend but before they did those charts were showing 9C anomalies building sub surface.

Scuse me?? Nine deg?
Flat calm here and overcast.... Time to put my shell in the water and get some good rowing in
Quoting 212. LostTomorrows:



So did the doc, in a blog about Patricia's aftermath he made predictions for the varying basins of the Northern Hemisphere. For a bit the Atlantic was looking like September, and even the deep tropics are still showing a bit of kick now. Although, I am pretty sure Kate will be this season's last gasp.


I guess never say never. I know this is 10 days out, but maybe there will be another system coming up out of the Caribbean.

Quoting 221. StormTrackerScott:



A historic El-Nino as this one pretty much gty's a active Winter in FL. Any variables pretty much get thrown out as El-Nino overwhelms the atmosphere.


Yes. But exactly where in Florida, and just how severe will the weather be. Is it possible to be that exact? From what I'm hearing from local mets the entire state of Florida needs to be aware of this. It can't be forecast to a specific region of north, central, or south Florida.
Tough to see at the moment on the satt shots where the enhanced t-storm risk for the Mid-West is on Wednesday but here is the current position of the jet over California that will be moving East over the Rockies and into the Mid-West in a few days:









Speaking of local mets...I heard Scott Spratt with the NWS Melbourne will be on NBC Nightly News tonight to discuss the El Nino event.
229. MahFL
Yesterday here in Orange Park we had 1.31 in of rain. Some thunder around 4:30 am too.
GRO..check out the 6Z GFS for the 19th....in the gulf
Quoting 215. StormTrackerScott:



You were no problem @ all it was a few others and now that this El-Nino will likely surpass 3C I can't even imagine what they are thinking now. This will go down as the Strongest El-Nino of All Time. Nino 4 rising like it is is a bad sign that this El-Nino is still almost 2 months from reaching its peak.


If they were credible they'd come back and admit they were wrong. :]
I realize this is the CMC, but this over the top even for that model. 5 systems in the east Pacific? Really? Shees!

With the upgrade to Tropical Storm Kate that brings the season's totals up to 11 TS, 3 H, and 2 MH. The most tropical storms in a traditional El-Nino season since 2002.

I can think of plenty of things more exciting than a minimal tropical storm.

I'll give it props for the unusual November track, but as far as I'm concerned this season is done. >_>
Grim news on the AGW front. Link
Recon heading back toward the center from the northeast. Still a ways to go and already seeing winds higher than the vortex report earlier.

HIRES Report at 11/09/15 14:04 UTC
Position: 24.850 N 74.417 W
Flight Level Wind: 120° at 040 knots
Surface Wind: 037 knots
Pressure: 1019 mb
Quoting 236. GTstormChaserCaleb:

With the upgrade to Tropical Storm Kate that brings the season's totals up to 11 TS, 3 H, and 2 MH. The most tropical storms in a traditional El-Nino season since 2002.




We need one more named storm to hit my prediction of 12. I think it's still possible, but we are quickly running out of time.
Hopefully this tropical storm won't be too bad for the Bahamas.
1 more is possible especially considering a warmer earth equates to longer hurricane seasons. i need 2 more to meet my numbers.
Quoting 230. LargoFl:

GRO..check out the 6Z GFS for the 19th....in the gulf


Wouldn't that be something!!
Apart from the data of El Nino 3.4 that has tied the peak of the 1997 El Nino event also the ONI goes up for ASO to +1.7C. Read the CPC update at my ENSO Blog.
Cool gray morning here on Blue Mountain Beach on the NW FL Gulf coast..
Love the <70's temps been a looooooooooooong time coming this year!
Beach is a mess.. all the dune lakes broke through with all the rain and turned our normal clear emerald water to brown..
Quoting 242. Grothar:



Wouldn't that be something!!
yeah GRO..looks like it comes into Tampa bay area,goes NE and out thru the Jacksonville area...but its days away,could change huh
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2015
14:30 PM IST November 9 2015
=============================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved north northwestwards with a speed of 11 km/h during past 6 hours and now lays centered over southwest Bay of Bengal near 12.0N 80.0E, very close to northern Tamil Nadu coast near Puducherry.

It would move west northwestwards, weaken gradually.

Current intensity (CI) is 2.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over area between 9.0N to 16.0N and west of 87.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The winds are higher over the northeast sector.. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 991 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=============
9 HRS 12.5N 79.4E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS 13.1N 78.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
No very impressive surface pressure but the wind speed is steadily increasing.

Vortex Report at 11/09/15 14:19 UTC
Position: 24.35 N 75.1 W
Max Surface Wind: 42 kts.
Max Wind Location: 054° at 47 NM
Central Pressure: 1010 MB
GFS has another one coming out of the Carribean around the 21st.....................
GFS has it miss the east coast 20-21st of November........................................
Quoting 234. fmbill:





this is sure one odd TS too me i see no turning what so ever in the clouds all so too me this looks more like a open wave then a TS and the clouds set up that we have with this looks like a leprechaun
g'morning post-nocturnal wx-peeps

got a (sweet jesus, pass the collards n barbeque) wonderful rain event over the past 24hours, dumped 5.75" outta the
CoCoRAHS this morning.

(beell- a CocoRAHS is a standard rain gauge that is used across the country by folks who enter their data into the website)

A coolth™ is coming as well.

peace to all-
CMC for next week.............................................. .....................................
Quoting 245. LargoFl:

yeah GRO..looks like it comes into Tampa bay area,goes NE and out thru the Jacksonville area...but its days away,could change huh



I don't know. I was following Kate as a wave last week. If you remember, it was a very vigorous wave for this time of year. Very strange year.
twin merging systems se nw
Quoting 205. weathermanwannabe:

The Caribbean has been pretty dry the last several weeks and nice to see them get rain over the past several days with more on the way; good to fill those cisterns as you start heading into Winter in a few weeks.






-THANK GOD FOR THE RAIN HOWEVER, ALL IS NOT WELL IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS AT PRESENT...
HERE IN DOMINICA -INDEED WE HAVE BEEN VERY BLESSED TO HAVE GOTTEN OFF SO LIGHTLY THUS FAR FROM THE RECENT, AND ONGOING ASSAULT DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM A TROUGH SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. DOMINICANS ARE CERTAINLY COUNTING THEIR BLESSINGS...

WE ARE TRULY VERY GRATEFUL TO THE GOOD LORD FOR HAVING PRESERVED US FROM ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR SLIDES, NEVERTHELESS, OUR THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS CONTINUE TO BE WITH OUR SISTER ISLANDS LIKE ST. LUCIA WHERE SCHOOL HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO THE IMPACTS FROM ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALSO, BAD WEATHER CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOC IN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM TOBAGO & GRENADA AND THE GRENADINES/ ST. VINCENT TO BARBADOS & MARTINIQUE.

DEVELOPING BETTER DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION TECHNIQUES AND POLICIES ARE A MUST IN THE FACE OF GROWING IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE ESPECIALLY IN SMALL ISLAND STATES LIKE OURS.

RE: THE STABILITY/ INSTABILITY POINT OF LAND AND SLOPES (POST ERIKA) MENTIONED BY LISETTE- ACTUALLY, OUR GOOD FORTUNES OF LATE THUS FAR IN THE NATURE ISLAND OF THE CARIBBEAN, DOMINICA HAS ONLY TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORM AND THUNDERSHOWER CELLS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN MISSING OUR ISLAND. WERE WE TO HAVE RECEIVED THE INTENSE, PROLONGED AND HEAVY CONVECTION (TRAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY) WHICH MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY LAST -WE WOULD HAVE BEEN IN A VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION ALSO DEALING WITH SERIOUS IMPACTS. HOWEVER, WE MUST REMAIN VIGILANT SINCE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TROUGH FEATURES CAN BECOME MORE PREVALENT & DEADLY ESPECIALLY IN THIS VERY STRONG EL-NINO YEAR- 2015.

MAY GOD CONTINUE TO GUIDE, BLESS AND GRANT US ALL THE STRENGTH AND GRACE TO OVERCOME ANY NATURAL DISASTERS WHICH MAY OCCUR. BLESSINGS TO ALL!
Quoting 238. Guysgal:

Grim news on the AGW front. Link
faster and faster
Quoting 256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster



slower and slower
QUOTE "Jacksonville really took it on the chin and its not over for them as more heavy rain is coming."

If you look at that rainfall map you can see that the area north of Ocala got nothing so far. We have gotten barely a half inch of rain since late September after a wet summer. To make things worse it has been unusually hot most of those days.

At first I was grateful when the grass growth slowed and I could stop mowing. Now I have to water shrubs that I should not have to water. But when El Nino clicks in this drought will probably be replaced by a flood as happened in 1997.
Quoting 253. Grothar:




I don't know. I was following Kate as a wave last week. If you remember, it was a very vigorous wave for this time of year. Very strange year.
yes sure is a strange time weather wise,nothing is normal,guess we need to stay alert and see how this plays out,water temps around us are still plenty warm
when i picked 13 storms it was back in april. at that time i figured el nino was going to peter out like the yr prior. its amazing we've already have had 11 storms
Quoting 257. Tazmanian:




slower and slower

it would be nice but the slow phase was over a long time ago
we are now at the very verge
of an enhance period with large scale high impact events
becoming the norm
we are likely very near too significant tipping points
which will likely lead to an ever increasing
frequency of events

whats that saying

we have seen nothing yet
Quoting 251. aquak9:

g'morning post-nocturnal wx-peeps

got a (sweet jesus, pass the collards n barbeque) wonderful rain event over the past 24hours, dumped 5.75" outta the
CoCoRAHS this morning.

(beell- a CocoRAHS is a standard rain gauge that is used across the country by folks who enter their data into the website)

A coolth™ is coming as well.

peace to all-


You were in the sweet spot for sure. Happy Days! Meanwhile, not far to your SW, I dumped .33"

If you haven't seen it, NWS put together a summary including some pictures from the area.
255. NatureIsle
10:10 AM EST on November 09, 2015

Your points are all well taken; your People suffered several deaths from Erika. As you know, one massive rain event from a tropical storm/hurricane for your region can be devastating and not much help (too much rain at once).
Quoting 260. islander101010:

when i picked 13 storms it was back in april. at that time i figured el nino was going to peter out like the yr prior. its amazing we've already have had 11 storms with a strong el nino.

Couldn't have said it better. I went for 12 named storms.
oooohhh, StAug- REALLY?? you got that little?

oh I has a sad for u
I picked 11 back around the same time period with the same logic. So it is just pure dumb luck if I end up close.

Quoting 260. islander101010:

when i picked 13 storms it was back in april. at that time i figured el nino was going to peter out like the yr prior. its amazing we've already have had 11 storms
Quoting 243. Tropicsweatherpr:

Apart from the data of El Nino 3.4 that has tied the peak of the 1997 El Nino event also the ONI goes up for ASO to 1.7C. Read the CPC update at my ENSO Blog.


ERSSTv4 continues to be a low outlier wrt to estimating this El Nino's intensity, it has been averaging about .25-.3C below the mean value that I'm estimating in real-time from 10 SST datasets (ERSSTv4, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, HADISST, ERSSTv3b, COBE SST, IOCADSv2.5, NCEP R1, HADSST3, CDAS1 (daily data is available on Levi's site), & OISSTv2). In reality the ONI is currently running ~ 1.95-2.0C or so, which puts us practically in a 3-way tie with 1997-98 & 1877-78 for the strongest El Nino observed since observational records began in the mid 19th century.

Take JAS for example, (note that the HADISST value was reported for JJA since this dataset's updates lag by 1 month but amazingly, the ONI was still higher in HADISST than ERSST). The only dataset that produced lower ONI values was the unadjusted, uninterpolated IOCADSv2.5 set, and this likely stems from the fact that the vast majority of datasets do not use a high-freqeuncy filter that often leads to initial spurious SST values, utilize optimum interpolation, & directly integrate real-time satellite data into their analyses. Thus, even though the ONI values being produced by the CPC's ERSST dataset are impressive, they are likely vastly underestimating the true intensity of this El Nino. Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 should update relatively soon & since this is essentially a low resolution version of OISSTv2 after 1981, I expect this dataset to set a new record for ASO, easily eclipsing the record set jointly by 1877-78 & 1997-98 ( 2.05).




CDAS 1 ONI (1990-2015)



NCEP R1 ONI (1990-2015)



OISSTv2 ONI (2000-2015)



COBE SST ONI (1990-2015)
TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL122015
1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 75.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 75.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 74.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.1N 76.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.6N 72.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.4N 68.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN extratropical LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 75.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
Quoting 263. LargoFl:



Where did Intellicast get the TS position?
Line of moderate to heavy T-storms with frequent lightning has just crossed the coast and is now headed across SF Bay. Haven't experienced this in years. Cold upper low is almost directly over SF Bay. Low freezing level, excellent dynamics, sufficient moisture...the Sierra watershed is forecast to pick up a good amount of additional snow out of this.
273. beell
Quoting 251. aquak9:

g'morning post-nocturnal wx-peeps

got a (sweet jesus, pass the collards n barbeque) wonderful rain event over the past 24hours, dumped 5.75" outta the
CoCoRAHS this morning.

(beell- a CocoRAHS is a standard rain gauge that is used across the country by folks who enter their data into the website)

A coolth™ is coming as well.

peace to all-


funny, doggie...very funny...
:)
Quoting 269. Webberweather53:



ERSSTv4 continues to be a low outlier wrt to estimating this El Nino's intensity, it has been averaging about .25-.3C below the mean value that I'm estimating in real-time from 10 SST datasets (ERSSTv4, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, HADISST, ERSSTv3b, COBE SST, IOCADSv2.5, NCEP R1, HADSST3, CDAS1 (daily data is available on Levi's site), & OISSTv2). In reality the ONI is currently running ~ 1.95-2.0C or so, which puts us practically in a 3-way tie with 1997-98 & 1877-78 for the strongest El Nino observed since observational records began in the mid 19th century.

Take JAS for example, (note that the HADISST value was reported for JJA since this dataset's updates lag by 1 month but amazingly, the ONI was still higher in HADISST than ERSST). The only dataset that produced lower ONI values was the unadjusted, uninterpolated IOCADSv2.5 set, and this likely stems from the fact that the vast majority of datasets do not use a high-freqeuncy filter that often leads to initial spurious SST values, utilize optimum interpolation, & directly integrate real-time satellite data into their analyses. Thus, even though the ONI values being produced by the CPC & ERSST are impressive, they are likely vastly underestimating the true intensity of this El Nino. Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 should update relatively soon & since this is essentially a low resolution version of OISSTv2 after 1981, I expect this dataset to set a new record for ASO, easily eclipsing the record set jointly by 1877-78 & 1997-98 ( 2.05).




Anytime you see Nino 4 spiking like it is watchout as Nino 3.4 isn't done with just 2.8C. We should eclipse 3C in the next couple of weeks to make this El-Nino the strongest ever. I also suspect we might peak @ 3.2C in December as there is a new OKW building subsurface as there were 9C anomalies in a small area before the TAO site went down this past weekend.
Quoting 232. fmbill:

I realize this is the CMC, but this over the top even for that model. 5 systems in the east Pacific? Really? Shees!


Quoting 231. KoritheMan:



If they were credible they'd come back and admit they were wrong. :]


They weren't and they won't.
Can't tell from the regular loop as to whether there is any snow reaching the ground from the low pushing into Cal--The Pacific NW but the precip is rotating in:

Pacific Northwest sector loop


Quoting 207. weathermanwannabe:

There you have it; with Kate we have had 11 named storms this season. Kate around Thanksgiving of 1985 gave Tallahassee a big wallop with tons of trees down when it came ashore at Mexico Beach.


Downtown TLH looked shredded with no power and debris everywhere but little structural damage. Across the
street from FSU on brevard street, I lost power for 24 hours. Conditions were worse to the north and some of those areas, in particular Killearn locations, had no power for a week. There were both downbursts and tornadoes associated with Kate which caused localised cat 2-cat 3 damage. The storm overall was minimal cat1 by the time it reached TLH but it still sounded awful the night it passed through.
oh yeah, beell...
I forgot you don't eat collard greens.

Bless your heart.
Quoting 272. BayFog:

Line of moderate to heavy T-storms with frequent lightning has just crossed the coast and is now headed across SF Bay. Haven't experienced this in years. Cold upper low is almost directly over SF Bay. Low freezing level, excellent dynamics, sufficient moisture...the Sierra watershed is forecast to pick up a good amount of additional snow out of this.

That is some cold looking air, Enjoy!
Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime you see Nino 4 spiking like it is watchout as Nino 3.4 isn't done with just 2.8C. We should eclipse 3C in the next couple of weeks to make this El-Nino the strongest ever. I also suspect we might peak @ 3.2C in December as there is a new OKW building subsurface as there were 9C anomalies in a small area before the TAO site went down this past weekend.


why do you say the next couple of weeks we could see 2.9 or 3.0 has soon has next monday update
Hmmmm!!!!
Quoting 276. weathermanwannabe:

Can't tell from the regular loop as to whether there is any snow reaching the ground from the low pushing into Cal--The Pacific NW but the precip is rotating in:

Pacific Northwest sector loop




Plenty of rain this AM in the SF Bay Area. Steady moderate rainfall with pockets of very heavy rain. Local forecasters are taking a closer look at a severe cell headed for the coast at Half Moon Bay, looking at possible rotation as the mild SSTs are resulting in strong lapse rates, plus the vorticity and cold air associated with the upper low.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
735 AM PST MON NOV 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED
A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PINOS CALIFORNIA OUT TO
10 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT REYES TO PIGEON POINT CALIFORNIA OUT TO
10 NM...
WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PINOS 10-60 NM...
WATERS FROM POINT REYES TO PIGEON POINT 10-60 NM...

* UNTIL 815 AM PST

* AT 735 AM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER AND
SMALL HAIL...LOCATED 28 NM WEST OF PIGEON POINT...MOVING EAST AT 25
KNOTS.
Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime you see Nino 4 spiking like it is watchout as Nino 3.4 isn't done with just 2.8C. We should eclipse 3C in the next couple of weeks to make this El-Nino the strongest ever. I also suspect we might peak @ 3.2C in December as there is a new OKW building subsurface as there were 9C anomalies in a small area before the TAO site went down this past weekend.
I'm with you STS! This looks like one we'll be telling the grandkids about!
I've been away busy for a while and a bit sickly, I heard there were two areas of interest and one of them became Kate I see. If this is the last named system I at least got my 11 storm prediction right along with 2 majors, but fell short of the 5 hurricanes.

And this weather is not good for me being ill, it is pouring.
Quoting 268. HaoleboySurfEC:

I picked 11 back around the same time period with the same logic. So it is just pure dumb luck if I end up close.




Same here, 11-5-2

Quoting 277. tampabaymatt:




Looks about the same as the football game yesterday.
Marsh Harbor in the Bahamas reporting winds SW at 50 mph.
Quoting 231. KoritheMan:



If they were credible they'd come back and admit they were wrong. :]
I don't think the issue was with the prediction, it was that the prediction was for 2014. It was more of a "Boy who cried wolf" situation that caused some users to rebuke the forecast. When you say every year that there's going to be an El Nino, eventually you will be correct.
The upper level picture; you can see the huge low over California pushing in towards Nevada: also note the clear sailing TUTT wise for Kate until it reaches the trof exiting the coast.



Quoting 289. SouthTampa:

I don't think the issue was with the prediction, it was that the prediction was for 2014. It was more of a "Boy who cried wolf" situation that caused some users to rebuke the forecast. When you say every year that there's going to be an El Nino, eventually you will be correct.
It was actually November 2013 with discussion starting in June 2013...Yes two years....If that's the case and people are getting praise for it I predict a hurricane will threaten the east coast between 2016 and 2026.I called it first ;-)
is there a possibility Kate goes up the coast instead of out to sea?..........
Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime you see Nino 4 spiking like it is watchout as Nino 3.4 isn't done with just 2.8C. We should eclipse 3C in the next couple of weeks to make this El-Nino the strongest ever. I also suspect we might peak @ 3.2C in December as there is a new OKW building subsurface as there were 9C anomalies in a small area before the TAO site went down this past weekend.


Amazingly, despite the record NINO 4 SSTs, the Trans Nino Index is still positive. Aside from the 1997-98 & 1982-83 super El Ninos & 1951-52 (albeit barely), every other El Nino since 1950 has occurred in concert with a -TNI (i.e. NINO 4 > 1-2), thus this El Nino has clearly distinguished itself among the rest of the pack and can certainly be classified as a "Super" event. The increasing zonal SST gradient in the tropical Pacific with the NINO 4 warming at a faster rate than the eastern regions is to blame for the relatively disproportionate number of +TNI El Ninos since the mid 20th century, which is amazing considering that through the 1930s, the frequency of +TNI El Ninos was nearly double that of -TNI events, now they've become an extremely rare occurrence, set aside for only the strongest NINOs... Given the proxy records, where (excluding the evolution of the Maritime Continent archipelago) a weaker zonal SST gradient evolving concomitantly with alterations in precession & obliquity tended to be associated with a dampened ENSO response, thus, despite climate model uncertainties, it could be implied that ENSO amplitude would tend increase in the future due to the expectation that observed amplification of the zonal SST gradient over the last century & a half persists. I wouldn't necessarily say that this is the strongest we've observed, the 1877-78 & 1997-98 El Ninos topped out around +2.4-2.5C in the tri-monthlies & there's more than enough uncertainty in the reconstructions to suggest these events were still stronger than this year, although it will not mean much in the grand scheme of things. The ENSO wave behavior seems more reminiscent to the 1877-78 & 1888-89 Super events, with one year of +ENSO preconditioning (which doesn't seem to be a function of random noise in the reconstructions) & intensification through the solstice, that apart from perhaps 1986-88, is virtually unprecedented in the modern era. Hence, we likely haven't seen an El Nino of this ferocity, placement, & progression since the late 19th century.

December certainly looks like it could be an absolute blowtorch in the Northern Rockies, Upper midwest, Great Lakes, & possibly even the northeastern US. This month has consistently shown the strongest signaling overall for warmth in the northern tier, & the most agreement amongst the climate models & the Strong-Super NINO composites.

US December temps Strong-Super El Ninos (1895-present)


IMME N America December 2015 2mT forecast (2 month lead)






NOAA's 20CRv2c December N America 1000mb T (1981-2010 base pd) Strong-Super El Ninos (1865-present). The warmth in the northern tier of the US & south-central Canada is jaw dropping considering that this composite is being artificially cooled by a warmer, modern-day base period.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 288. HurrMichaelOrl:

Marsh Harbor in the Bahamas reporting winds SW at 50 mph.


I doubt it's correct. Blowing ESE just a few miles away live...
Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime you see Nino 4 spiking like it is watchout as Nino 3.4 isn't done with just 2.8C. We should eclipse 3C in the next couple of weeks to make this El-Nino the strongest ever. I also suspect we might peak @ 3.2C in December as there is a new OKW building subsurface as there were 9C anomalies in a small area before the TAO site went down this past weekend.


I'm watching.
You mention record warm seas in the Arabian Sea. What temps? Nothing short of the upper 80s/low 90s would be record.