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Chapala Closing in on Yemen; Record November Warmth in Florida, Europe

By: Bob Henson 5:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2015

A stretch of Middle Eastern coastline unaccustomed to tropical cyclones of any type is about to experience a full-blown landfall, as Cyclone Chapala bears down on the central coast of Yemen. Chapala held its intensity remarkably well on Sunday, thanks in large part to record-warm sea-surface temperatures and light wind shear. A large, solid central core of showers and thunderstorms (convection) helped Chapala barricade itself from the influence of extremely dry air from the Arabian Peninsula. Chapala remained a Category 3 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale as of 15Z (10:00 am EST) Monday, with top sustained winds estimated at 110 knots (126 mph). Cloud-top temperatures have gradually warmed across Chapala’s convective shield, and the storm has become more asymmetric in recent hours. Dry air will be infiltrating the storm more rapidly as it nears landfall, but with other conditions largely favorable, Chapala has a good chance of making landfall at Category 1 strength. Chapala swept to the north of the remote island of Socotra on Sunday night, triggering a flurry of photos and videos on social media--at least some of which were bogus, underscoring the need to double-check sources as this rare event unfolds. Al Jazeera reports that Chapala caused at least two deaths and nine injuries on Socotra, with more than 100 homes destroyed.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Cyclone Chapala, with the storm track overlaid. Icons denote Chapala’s predicted strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Chapala is projected to be a weakening Category 2 strength cyclone about six hours before landfall.


Figure 2. Steep hillsides surround the city of Mukalla on the central Yemen coast. Image credit: Google Images, via Stu Ostro, The Weather Channel.

Catastrophic rains possible near major Yemen city
The parched Yemen coast is nearly devoid of population centers, but Chapala is aiming for one of them. The forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as of 10:00 am EST Monday (7:00 pm Yemen time), in close agreement with the scant model guidance available, brings Chapala into the coast about 50 miles south of Mukalla (also Al Mukallah) on Tuesday night local time, putting that city of 300,000 on the more dangerous right-hand side of the cyclone. The potential storm surge will be tempered somewhat by the steep rise of the undersea topography just offshore, but this region’s experience with any surge is very limited. According to a review paper by storm surge expert Hal Needham, there are only four observations in the scientific literature of storm surge or storm tide in the Arabian Sea. The only other hurricane-strength cyclone in modern records to affect the Arabian Peninsula is 2007’s Cyclone Gonu, which nicked the southeast corner of the peninsula en route to Iran. Water levels during Gonu reached 5 meters (16 feet) at Ras al-Hadd, Oman, although that total may include waves as well as storm surge.

Chapala’s landfall may be far enough southwest to spare Mukalla from hurricane-force winds. However, there is a far bigger threat: Chapalla’s path is virtually certain to bring torrential rain to Mukalla and the surrounding mountains, raising the spectre of potentially disastrous floods and mudslides. The counterclockwise circulation around Mukalla will pull dry air into the cyclone’s south side but will keep moist air flowing into the north side, where the heaviest rains will fall. Amount could easily top one to two feet of rain in some areas, representing a number of years’ worth of rain in this desert regime. The immediate coast averages less than 2” of rain per year.

It is difficult to overstate the rarity and gravity of this event: a hurricane-strength storm striking near a large, ancient city, situated near mountains, with no modern experience in dealing with tropical cyclones. Although Hurricane Patricia got much more media attention, Chapala may end up bringing more damage and misery by far. The ongoing civil war in Yemen can only exacerbate the suffering of those affected and complicate relief efforts. “The humanitarian situation in Yemen is deteriorating rapidly,” reported the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in an October 15 update. We can only hope that the powers that be respond to this threat in line with its seriousness.


Figure 3. 5-day rainfall totals projected by the HWRF model run for Cyclone Chapala for the period starting at 06Z (1:00 am EST) Monday, November 2, 2015. The heaviest rains--perhaps 24” to 32” or more--are projected to fall close to the city of Al Mukallah, just to the right of Chapala’s path. Image credit: NCEP/EMC.


Figure 4. Average annual rainfall in Yemen. Image credit: CIA, via Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection, University of Texas at Austin.


The autumn heat is on in eastern U.S. and Europe
Torrential rains progressed over the weekend from Texas into the Southeast, where the western Florida Panhandle has been especially hard-hit. CoCoRaHS observations for the 24 hours ending at 7:00 am EST Monday topped 7” at one site in Walton County, and flash flood watches remained in effect at midday Monday from Florida to North Carolina.

Downstream of the heavy storms, Sunday and Monday have felt more like midsummer than mid-autumn across most of Florida. In Tallahassee, Sunday’s high temperature of 88°F and low of 75°F both tied for the warmest ever recorded there in November, and the day’s average of 81.5°F handily beat the November record of 80.5°F set on 11/11/82 (records extend back to 1892). At midnight, it was still a sultry 80°F, with a relative humidity of 87%! Tallahassee’s overnight low on Sunday night was a ridiculous 78°F, but the rains should move in later today, tamping down that reading before midnight. (Thanks to Jedkins01 for calling attention to the Tallahassee warmth.) As the front retreats north ahead of a strong upper-level trough in the West, mild, moist air will overspread most of the eastern half of the country. In parts of southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, nighttime lows could stay above 55°F (warmer than the average daily highs) by midweek.

Balmy temperatures are also gracing much of Europe for the first week of November, thanks to an unusually strong upper-level high. On Sunday, the United Kingdom saw its warmest November temperature in more than a century of official records, as Trawscoed, Wales, soared to 22.4°C (72.3°F), besting the previous mark of 21.7°C (71.1°F) set in the Wales town of Prestatyn on November 4, 1946. On Monday afternoon, Trawscoed warmed again to at least 21.2°C (70.0°F), based on hourly observations.

Temperatures this week will be especially mild for mid-autumn across northern latitudes and higher altitudes of Europe. Finland saw its warmest-on-record November temperature on Monday with 13.3°C (56.0°F) at the town of Jomala, which held the previous national record of 13.0°C (November 12, 1999). In Helsinki, Finland, where the all-time November record is 11.6°C (52.9°F). Helsinki’s Vantaa airport likely topped that reading on Monday, with the highest Celsius-rounded hourly observations hitting 12°C (53.6°F). The latest WU forecast calls for a high of 55°F in Helsinki on Tuesday. The town of Sunndalsøra, Norway--less than 300 miles south of the Arctic Circle--reached at least 64°F on Monday. Later this week, temperatures may inch above freezing and trigger snowmelt at altitudes as high as 4000 meters (13,100 feet) in the Alps, according to international weather records historian Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

WU blogger Steve Gregory outlines the potential for continued warmth into mid-month across eastern North America, plus the latest on El Niño, in his post today.

Bob Henson


Hurricane Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson!
Quoting 544. fmbill:


And that's the next part of the equation for Florida. After the winter 1997 flooding, and the worst tornado outbreak ever seen here occurred in Feb 1998, it stopped raining and didn't start again until the end of July. Fireworks, Daytona races, outdoor events were all cancelled because half the State was on fire. Worst wildfire season ever. Ugh!



1998 was the year I first flew over to FL to meet my future wife, I wondered what the heck I'd flown into, it was so hot/dry and smokey., white ash fell out of the sky like snow in July.
Amazing to witness to see what the impact of Chapala will be in that region.

On the Tallahassee front; just walked from work to the bank (in Downtown Tally) and broke out in a sweat walking two blocks..........................Would also note that we recently had the hottest recorded March-June temps here as well. If we were on the coast, we could benefit from some sea breeze action but we are pretty much subject to the Gulf/SE US continental air masses in this location.
Would also note that the cloud deck over Tallahassee (from Sunday to today) helped to keep a lid on any radiational cooling............Hoping for some relief when the next cold front comes through our area.
Downstream of the heavy storms, Sunday and Monday have felt more like midsummer than mid-autumn across most of Florida. In Tallahassee, Sunday’s high temperature of 88°F and low of 75°F both tied for the warmest ever recorded there in November, and the day’s average of 82°F handily beat the November record of 80.5°F set on 11/11/82 (records extend back to 1892). At midnight, it was still a sultry 80°F, with a relative humidity of 87%! Tallahassee’s overnight low on Sunday night was a ridiculous 78°F, but the rains should move in later today, tamping down that reading before midnight. (Thanks to Jedkins01 for calling attention to the Tallahassee warmth.) As the front retreats north ahead of a strong upper-level trough in the West, mild, moist air will overspread most of the eastern half of the country. In parts of southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, nighttime lows could stay above 55°F (warmer than the average daily highs) by midweek.



AH AH AH pay back time top news this fall and winter will be cold and vary wet weather in CA and the mid W and back E march warmer this winter after haveing cold and snow for the last few winter in the mid W and back E this is 100% flip flop in the weather in super EL Nino years CA this winter season will go from a 4 year Drought too floods with super EL Nino if other states like NC SC OK KS and TX can get there drought wip off in one shot then so can CA
Most recent images of Chapla from RAMMB:





Some dry air might be getting into Chapala, but the trailing feeder band is very moist.

??????

Yemen remained a Category 3 cyclone

?????

Yemen has a good chance of making landfall at a Category 1 hurricane


First para typos
Quoting 3. weathermanwannabe:

Amazing to witness to see what the impact of Chapala will be in that region.

On the Tallahassee front; just walked from work to the bank (in Downtown Tally) and broke out in a sweat walking two blocks..........................Would also note that we recently had the hottest recorded March-June temps here as well. If we were on the coast, we could benefit from some sea breeze action but we are pretty much subject to the Gulf/SE US continental air masses in this location.



A fair fraction of summer days there were marine the years I was there. Much more pleasant than the fraction that were continental.

When gulf temps are 90F, a sea breeze isn't very refreshing :-( A colleague who went there before me described
early fall winds going to southerly "bringing in that glop from off the gulf"

DC metro had incredibly warm March-July in calendar 2012. It was just off the charts compared to other spring-early summer periods. I've remarked before that I took a chance planting a tomato plant in a frosty stream valley location MARCH 15, (six weeks before safe planting time) and it survived with minimal protection and produced fruit record early June 3. This was
also my earliest sweet corn (June 6).

Chapala swept to the north of the remote island of Socorra on Sunday night,

I think you have the wrong name there.... Socotra maybe
Just a quick correction, the temperature record in the UK for November is 22.4C, not 22.3C (it warmed up slightly just after the record was annouced and they recorrected it to 22.4C). - Link

Meanwhile, London has been under a thick blanket of fog the last couple of days.





The tall skyscraper in the center of the first pic is The Shard, the tallest building in London (309m tall). Everything else, apart from a few other tall buildings seen in the right of the picture, had been blanketed by the fog. Been a while since I've seen fog so thick! Quite dangerous though.

Link
Thanks, Bob! Not easy to cover Chapala as we aren't acqainted with this area.
Very good aerial google view of Mukalla. I was just looking for something like this.

Here some nice peaceful pictures from Al Mukalla last year:

Youtube 27.12.2014: Al-Mukalla as it never seen before
Florida needs to get it together. November with a heat index of 99.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson!

Storm in Central Cal expected in Soo Cal this evening and overnight best chances for showers and Tuesday/Wed if a 2nd vort max does as forecast. One of these light/moderate storms a week would be nice to keep things moist until a possible unleashing of the big time rains of our current El Nino after the first of the year.

From NWS San Diego

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ELSEWHERE. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED AN INVERSION
AT AROUND 900 FEET ABOVE MSL....WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND
STRONGER ONSHORE...UP TO 7.5 MB ONSHORE FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH...WHEREAS IT WAS 2.7 MB OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CAN BE
SEEN APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND DRAG A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND...WITH GRADIENTS PEAKING AT AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO
TO LAS VEGAS TONIGHT. ALSO...850 MB WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40
KT AS WELL. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT WRF CROSS-SECTIONS...THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE THAT GETS INDUCED.
NEVERTHELESS...A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 10 AM THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT WINDY DESERT AREA LOCATIONS.
WITH THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BY SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT WRF AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE WARM WATERS...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
200-400 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2 DEG C. THUS...WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THAT TIME.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE NEVADA/UTAH
REGION...AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
TOWARDS THE LOCAL WRF...WHICH PAINTS HIGHER QPF IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THAT AREA. 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR
ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FOR
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST...0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY VALLEYS...0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...0.30 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND A TRACE TO 0.15 INCHES IN THE DESERTS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH...AROUND 8000-9000 FEET THIS
EVENING...AND THEN FALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DOWN TO
AROUND 6000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE MODEL PROGGED WET-BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR COMES IN...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THUS...AM NOT
ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT.

FINALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS FALLING TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE
NEARBY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

Thanks for the fixes, all! I'll be flying solo through Thursday while Jeff is on vacation. Please keep the great info flowing. Apologies for posting what might have been non-Chapala videos last night. It's going to take some real effort to keep tabs on Chapala and its impacts, given the terrible political situation on the ground and the limited observations from the region.
Quoting 13. SecretStormNerd:

Florida needs to get it together. November with a heat index of 99.


My buddy in Estero is gonna be pissy! He tells me the heat ends in October and then back in May and anytime that does not occur, he is in Major Bad Mood. I lived in Naples from 85-92 and that timeframe for the heat seemed about right......now, it seems everyone is warmer!
Quoting 15. BobHenson:

Thanks for the fixes, all! I'll be flying solo through Thursday while Jeff is on vacation. Please keep the great info flowing. Apologies for posting what might have been non-Chapala videos last night. It's going to take some real effort to keep tabs on Chapala and its impacts, given the terrible political situation on the ground and the limited observations from the region.



You do a great job Mr Henson! Keep it up!
nice update as always thanks
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

click image for loop

Quoting 11. Envoirment:

Just a quick correction, the temperature record in the UK for November is 22.4C, not 22.3C (it warmed up slightly just after the record was annouced and they recorrected it to 22.4C). - Link

Meanwhile, London has been under a thick blanket of fog the last couple of days.





The tall skyscraper in the center of the first pic is The Shard, the tallest building in London (309m tall). Everything else, apart from a few other tall buildings seen in the right of the picture, had been blanketed by the fog. Been a while since I've seen fog so thick! Quite dangerous though.

Link


Jack The Ripper weather! LOL
Quoting 19. Patrap:

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

click image for loop




Another ERC?
Hoping for the best for the regular people in Yemen (and particularly the Women and Children) who have seen their Country go down the tubes in recent years:

The closure of the U.S. Embassy in Yemen has forced the CIA to significantly scale back its counterterrorism presence in the country, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said the evacuation represents a major setback in operations against al-Qaeda’s most dangerous affiliate.

The spy agency has pulled dozens of operatives, analysts and other staffers from Yemen as part of a broader extraction of roughly 200 Americans who had been based at the embassy in Sanaa, officials said. Among those removed were senior officers who worked closely with Yemen’s intelligence and security services to target al-Qaeda operatives and disrupt terrorism plots often aimed at the United States.

The departures were triggered by mounting concerns over security in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, where Houthi rebels have effectively toppled the government. Britain and France said Wednesday that they also would close their embassies, as news footage showed Houthi fighters driving off in vehicles that U.S. diplomats had abandoned at an airport during their exodus.

Quoting 10. PedleyCA:

Chapala swept to the north of the remote island of Socorra on Sunday night,

I think you have the wrong name there.... Socotra maybe


Socorra of Mexico? Si o no?
After looking at the picture of Mukalla above {barren desert), I was curious about the fresh water sources in Yemen. From the article "Water supply and sanitation in Yemen" in Wikipedia:
Yemen's groundwater is the main source of water in the country but the water tables have dropped severely leaving the country without a viable source of water. For example, in Sana'a, the water table was 30 meters below surface in the 1970s but had dropped to 1200 meters below surface by 2012. The groundwater has not been regulated by Yemen's governments.[5] Even before the revolution, Yemen's water situation had been described as increasingly dire by experts who worried that Yemen would be the "first country to run out of water".[6] Agriculture in Yemen takes up about 90% of water in Yemen even though it only generates 6% of GDP - however a large portion of Yemenis are dependent on small-scale subsistence agriculture. Half of agricultural water in Yemen is used to grow khat, a narcotic that most Yemenis chew. This means that in such a water-scarce country as Yemen, where half the population is food-insecure, 45% of the water withdrawn from the ever-depleting aquifers is used to grow a crop that feeds nobody.[5]
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE WITH CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING OVER WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE MAY
SPAWN OCCASIONAL LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED
TORNADO OR TWO.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ALBANY GEORGIA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF VIDALIA GEORGIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Quoting 5. Tazmanian:

Downstream of the heavy storms, Sunday and Monday have felt more like midsummer than mid-autumn across most of Florida. In Tallahassee, Sunday%u2019s high temperature of 88F and low of 75F both tied for the warmest ever recorded there in November, and the day%u2019s average of 82F handily beat the November record of 80.5F set on 11/11/82 (records extend back to 1892). At midnight, it was still a sultry 80F, with a relative humidity of 87%! Tallahassee%u2019s overnight low on Sunday night was a ridiculous 78F, but the rains should move in later today, tamping down that reading before midnight. (Thanks to Jedkins01 for calling attention to the Tallahassee warmth.) As the front retreats north ahead of a strong upper-level trough in the West, mild, moist air will overspread most of the eastern half of the country. In parts of southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, nighttime lows could stay above 55F (warmer than the average daily highs) by midweek.



AH AH AH pay back time top news this fall and winter will be cold and vary wet weather in CA and the mid W and back E march warmer this winter after haveing cold and snow for the last few winter in the mid W and back E this is 100% flip flop in the weather in super EL Nino years CA this winter season will go from a 4 year Drought too floods with super EL Nino if other states like NC SC OK KS and TX can get there drought wip off in one shot then so can CA


Here's to hoping we put at LEAST a good dent in our drought! Hoping for normal rainfall totals for November,December and then let the Rain and Snow fly for January,February,March and April. Also hope you are right about the COLD! We need a big trof carved out over the west so the Sierra's get bookoo snow and not the Pineapple Express to melt all the snow at the wrong time. Timing and direction of storms matters.
Quoting 16. HurricaneHunterJoe:



My buddy in Estero is gonna be pissy! He tells me the heat ends in October and then back in May and anytime that does not occur, he is in Major Bad Mood. I lived in Naples from 85-92 and that timeframe for the heat seemed about right......now, it seems everyone is warmer!

Yeah, the heat just gets old when it extends into the months where it is supposed to cool down some. Being a lifelong Floridian, I expect April through October to be very warm to hot. October is usually a warm, muggy month here with a few pleasant days mixed in. April can have pleasant temperatures, but with the high sun angle, it feels hot if you are in the sun anyways. 89F here and we should get to at least 90F this afternoon. I'm not really a fan of hot weather regardless, what I appreciate about the summer months is the thunderstorms.

We have had a long streak of "boring" weather here. We had some intense storms this summer (of course), but I did not observe a single storm approaching severe limits this year. No strong wind events in years. The weather in Northern Virginia was WAY more interesting in any given season than here.
Quoting 21. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Another ERC?
I think it's just starting to peter out what with the dry air.
Quoting 28. bappit:

I think it's just starting to peter out what with the dry air.

And rugged terrain interaction.
A sunny afternoon in the mid to upper 40s to walk the dog wearing a jacket and jeans would feel so good right about now.
93 with a 102 heat index. Ouch!!! All Time records might fall this week across FL as daily records seem to be being broken easily so far.

Quoting 23. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Socorra of Mexico? Si o no?

Yup, that's the one or SI.
Quoting 30. HurrMichaelOrl:

A sunny afternoon in the mid to upper 40s to walk the dog wearing a jacket and jeans would feel so good right about now.


91 to 95 depending on where you live here across Western Seminole County.
PWS ID KFLAPOPKA28 is reporting 92 with a 107 heat index. That station is a few miles south of me.
36. JRRP
hmm



Thanks Bob...
central florida was uninhabitable before A/C maybe some tropical mischief?
Quoting 6. weathermanwannabe:

Most recent images of Chapla from RAMMB:








It's losing it.
I spy 40's in the forecast. Fall is finally here.
Quoting 38. islander101010:

central florida was uninhabitable before A/C maybe some tropical mischief?


What will be interesting going forward is how this southern jet reacts to these insanely warm water temps around FL with 80 SST's in early November. Looking like a interesting Winter coming up for FL.

Well there will be no shortage of records to beat up at the Paris talks next month.

2015, the year the climate strikes back'



Concerning Europe: Here the latest airmass pic of that massive low ("Yorsch II") which has hit Spain in the last hours. It will move north now, pushing the high which was accountable for those temperature records (see entry) a bit to the East. In Germany some places may still experience very warm temps in the days ahead where sun is able to disperse the fog. Today in Rhine valley it stayed grey for me all day while family nearby enjoyed a marvellous sunny and bright afternoon, grrr.

Wind, rain and waves: Spain suffers severest storms in over two decades
The Local (Spain), Published: 02 Nov 2015 14:15 GMT+01:00
Six and a half metre waves battered the southern coast over the weekend in the worst storm to hit the region in 20 years and more is to come.
Spain’s national weather agency has issued a country-wide alert for torrential rain, after fierce storms battered the country over the weekend.
The severe weather will last at least into Tuesday, November 3rd, Aemet confirmed in a statement on its website.
Spain currently has 29 provinces on alert for heavy rain, with the worst affected areas including Andalusia, the Pyrenees and the Mediterranean coast.
Much of Spain was inundated with rain over the weekend, with the south of the country being particularly badly hit.
Beach bars were destroyed and seafront promenades flooded all along the Malaga coast, while in Andalusia there were 300 incidents due to the bad weather.
Flights both in and out of Malaga airport were delayed on Sunday.
A storm of this ferocity has not been recorded in Spain since 1995, according to various Spanish media reports. ...



Island of Ibiza (Mediterranean), Spain, today.


Estofex storm forecast for today.
Cloudy and a perfect 72F currently here.

Quoting 24. bappit:

After looking at the picture of Mukalla above {barren desert), I was curious about the fresh water sources in Yemen. From the article "Water supply and sanitation in Yemen" in Wikipedia:
Yemen's groundwater is the main source of water in the country but the water tables have dropped severely leaving the country without a viable source of water. For example, in Sana'a, the water table was 30 meters below surface in the 1970s but had dropped to 1200 meters below surface by 2012. The groundwater has not been regulated by Yemen's governments.[5] Even before the revolution, Yemen's water situation had been described as increasingly dire by experts who worried that Yemen would be the "first country to run out of water".[6] Agriculture in Yemen takes up about 90% of water in Yemen even though it only generates 6% of GDP - however a large portion of Yemenis are dependent on small-scale subsistence agriculture. Half of agricultural water in Yemen is used to grow khat, a narcotic that most Yemenis chew. This means that in such a water-scarce country as Yemen, where half the population is food-insecure, 45% of the water withdrawn from the ever-depleting aquifers is used to grow a crop that feeds nobody.[5]



Well thankfully one of the effects of khat is loss of appetite. /sarcasm
Quoting 42. Patrap:

Well there will be no shortage of records to beat up at the Paris talks next month.

2015, the year the climate strikes back'




Given that, and in the interest of a fair and balanced look at our climate, " A new NASA study found that Antarctica has been adding more ice than it's been losing, challenging other research, including that of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that concludes that Earth’s southern continent is losing land ice overall.

In a paper published in the Journal of Glaciology on Friday, researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Maryland in College Park, and the engineering firm Sigma Space Corporation offer a new analysis of satellite data that show a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001 in the Antarctic ice sheet.

That gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008. "

These findings challenge current explanations for sea level rise, much of which is attributed to melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

"The good news is that Antarctica is not contributing to sea level rise, but is, in fact taking 0.23 millimeters per year away ".


Quoting 39. 62901IL:



It's losing it.

But there's no being on a beach at al-Mukalla. Inland doesn't look sheltering either.
This is not a place where I'd like to be during a hit like this. Oh no.
Quoting 34. StormTrackerScott:



91 to 95 depending on where you live here across Western Seminole County.

I am sitting outside and I wouldn't doubt it. Climatologically speaking, we could have lows in the 40s anytime now. No major cool down is in the forecast here for the next week though.
Quoting 40. TimSoCal:

I spy 40's in the forecast. Fall is finally here.


For a few days anyway....LOL
Quoting 48. HurrMichaelOrl:


I am sitting outside and I wouldn't doubt it. Climatologically speaking, we could have lows in the 40s anytime now. No major cool down is in the forecast here for the next week though.


Yeah really no break as far as the eye can see. Not the El-Nino split pattern as of yet but WSI is saying things should begin to change soon with a more active pattern across FL.
Quoting 46. DelawareJack:



Given that, and in the interest of a fair and balanced look at our climate, " A new NASA study found that Antarctica has been adding more ice than it's been losing, challenging other research, including that of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that concludes that Earth’s southern continent is losing land ice overall.

In a paper published in the Journal of Glaciology on Friday, researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Maryland in College Park, and the engineering firm Sigma Space Corporation offer a new analysis of satellite data that show a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001 in the Antarctic ice sheet.

That gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008. "

These findings challenge current explanations for sea level rise, much of which is attributed to melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

"The good news is that Antarctica is not contributing to sea level rise, but is, in fact taking 0.23 millimeters per year away ".





Sorry "Jack", but posting some stuff out of context without even a source link won't fly here, and most def wont stick to our screens.

Quoting 115. JohnLonergan:

From Dr. Master's blog we have another recent study showing accelerating loss of ice mass.





Abstract

While multiple data sources have confirmed that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate,
different measurement techniques estimate the details of its geographically highly variable mass balance
with different levels of accuracy, spatio-temporal resolution, and coverage. Some scope remains for
methodological improvements using a single data type. In this study we report our progress in increasing
the accuracy and spatial resolution of time-variable gravimetry from the Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE). We determine the geographic pattern of ice mass change in Antarctica between
January 2003 and June 2014, accounting for glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the IJ05_R2 model.
Expressing the unknown signal in a sparse Slepian basis constructed by optimization to prevent leakage
out of the regions of interest, we use robust signal processing and statistical estimation methods.
Applying those to the latest time series of monthly GRACE solutions we map Antarctica’s mass loss in
space and time as well as can be recovered from satellite gravity alone. Ignoring GIA model uncertainty,
over the period 2003–2014, West Antarctica has been losing ice mass at a rate of −121 ± 8 Gt/yr and
has experienced large acceleration of ice mass losses along the Amundsen Sea coast of −18 ± 5 Gt/yr2
,
doubling the mass loss rate in the past six years. The Antarctic Peninsula shows slightly accelerating ice
mass loss, with larger accelerated losses in the southern half of the Peninsula. Ice mass gains due to
snowfall in Dronning Maud Land have continued to add about half the amount of West Antarctica’s loss
back onto the continent over the last decade. We estimate the overall mass losses from Antarctica since
January 2003 at −92 ± 10 Gt/yr.

Quoting 47. cRRKampen:


But there's no being on a beach at al-Mukalla. Inland doesn't look sheltering either.
This is not a place where I'd like to be during a hit like this. Oh no.


I completely Agree.

Didn't I hear from a recent blog that Yemen did not know that this was coming?
Here is the link to the story you quoted from "The American Thinker"

Its not very hard to mouse over any text and find the source for it.

All browsers can do dat.

We use the intranets a lotz here.
Does anyone else find it a bit odd that people who normally do not accept scientific papers on climate change related topics suddenly accept this one paper as the end all truth of Antarctica when it is seriously the only paper which reports an increase and the time frame stops at 2008?

It's a solid paper, it has big implications for data and methods of approximating ice sheet mass gain/loss, but it also needs to be taken in context with what other papers have said. This is good science, it challenges other science, but unfortunately our "front lines" view of climate science doesn't allow for the scientific process to play out before making sweeping statements on Antarctica or global warming.
Not a word about the missing ship and crew in the Bahamas, everybody's minds have switched to something else a few days after the event. Always happens, it's all about "the Now factor" once that's gone, it's on to something else.
I had some interaction with "AT" a few years ago; a conservative think tank that does not tolerate dissent from their opinions/op ed articles and they tend to cherry pick data to support their own conclusions..........Just Sayin.

I have read some data suggesting that some of the ice gain in Antarctica is related to a shift in wind patterns (Antarctic Jet) related to climate change. In any event, the majority of the science has indicated that the most impacts from GW will/are being felt in the Northern Hemisphere.
Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah really no break as far as the eye can see. Not the El-Nino split pattern as of yet but WSI is saying things should begin to change soon with a more active pattern across FL.


Daytona Beach broke a record high by 11:45 this morning.
Dewpoints in the 80's across parts of Tampa! Damm!
Quoting 57. RitaEvac:

Not a word about the missing ship and crew in the Bahamas, everybody's minds have switched to something else a few days after the event. Always happens, it's all about "the Now factor" once that's gone, it's on to something else.



actually it has been on the news this morning....as they've found the ship and it's sitting upright on the ocean floor
Quoting 57. RitaEvac:

Not a word about the missing ship and crew in the Bahamas, everybody's minds have switched to something else a few days after the event. Always happens, it's all about "the Now factor" once that's gone, it's on to something else.


I read an article this morning that they believe they have found the wreckage from the El Faro. I haven't had a chance to read anything more into it though.
Quoting 57. RitaEvac:

Not a word about the missing ship and crew in the Bahamas, everybody's minds have switched to something else a few days after the event. Always happens, it's all about "the Now factor" once that's gone, it's on to something else.


Are you talking about the El Faro? It's been more than a few days - almost a month since it was declared sunk. Although Caleb did post an article on the previous blog about it being found 15,000ft under the ocean:

Link

It's not so much people's minds switching, but there's usually very little we can do about it other than give our thoughts/prayers to those affected and post about recent findings.
Quoting 59. tampabaymatt:



Daytona Beach broke a record high by 11:45 this morning.


Holding @ 92 here but the humidity is just ridiculous. Dewpoint is 74.
"A new NASA study" .... I guess he said that for the lulz.
Quoting 57. RitaEvac:

Not a word about the missing ship and crew in the Bahamas, everybody's minds have switched to something else a few days after the event. Always happens, it's all about "the Now factor" once that's gone, it's on to something else.
Howdy Rita..Caleb posted that the ship has been found 35 miles NE of crooked Island in 15,000 ft of water. Ship seems to have reached the bottom right side up and in one piece.
El-Nino now @ 2.7C for Nino 3.4. May eclipse 3C for the first time ever over the next several weeks.



Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:

Dewpoints in the 80's across parts of Tampa! Damm!


Scott! Watch your language, this is a family blog.

You're out of control, buddy. Time to reel it in a little.
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:

Dewpoints in the 80's across parts of Tampa! Damm!


It's unbearable here. Worse than summer because there is very little cloud cover. It's amazing that it's this hot with the sun angle being so low now.
Nice solid start to the rainy season in northern and central California. Received a half inch of rain in the lower elevations around the Bay overnight, more in the hills, and snow is blowing in the Sierra.

Quoting 61. ricderr:




actually it has been on the news this morning....as they've found the ship and it's sitting upright on the ocean floor




what's strange...is...they reported it on our local fox news...and now...i can't see a darn thing about it......hmmmmmmm
Quoting 69. tampabaymatt:



It's unbearable hear. Worse than summer because there is very little cloud cover. It's amazing that it's this hot with the sun angle being so low now.


Quoting 69. tampabaymatt:



It's unbearable here. Worse than summer because there is very little cloud cover. It's amazing that it's this hot with the sun angle being so low now.


I suspect some All Time November records are in jeopardy this week across FL.
Quoting 70. BayFog:

Nice solid start to the rainy season in northern and central California. Received a half inch of rain in the lower elevations around the Bay overnight, more in the hills, and snow is blowing in the Sierra.


Enjoy it while it lasts. High pressure will likely build back in SW of California, while the the eastern side gets several early winter storms..jmo
Quoting 72. RitaEvac:






Well played.
Here is the link and short clip from the article I referenced below as to Antarctic ice gain issues:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/05/antarc tic-researchers-ponder-challenges-posed-increasing -sea-ice


Scientists working in Antarctica are feeling the impact of climate change in ways the public might find surprising. Although global warming is causing Arctic ice to melt and glaciers around the world to shrink, the problem in Antarctica is that the sea ice surrounding the continent is increasing and now hampering ship navigation and resupply operations. This week, scientists and logistics experts from the 30 nations working on the continent are meeting in Hobart, Australia, to exchange ideas on coping with the sea ice challenge.

The underlying mechanism is fairly well understood, says Tony Worby, a sea ice specialist at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. "We know that the changing Antarctic sea ice extent is very largely driven by changes in wind,” he says. “In turn, we know those changes are driven by the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere as well as increasing greenhouse gases at the surface." The new wind patterns blow Antarctic sea ice away from the continent and then more ice forms close to shore. This doesn't occur in the Arctic because the ocean is hemmed in by land masses. And "it's quite a lot windier around Antarctica than in the Arctic," Worby says.

The area covered by Antarctic sea ice has been growing roughly 1.2% each decade since 1979. Last September, it reached a record 20 million square kilometers surrounding the 14 square kilometer continent. The combined 34 million square kilometers of ice at the end of the austral winter is more than 3.5 times the area of the United States.

here it is.....


The debris that turned up on the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean Saturday is indeed the cargo ship that vanished in a hurricane, the National Transportation Safety Board confirmed Monday.

The wreckage was found in 15,000 feet of water east of the Bahamas, nearly a month after the El Faro went missing during Hurricane Joaquin. All 33 crewmembers on board were lost.

The National Transportation Safety Board said Monday on Twitter that the survey of the area will continue, and that the U.S. Navy is continuing to survey the area around the wreckage.

"The ship will certainly not be recovered; the ship is going to stay there. The containers are too deep to do any kind of recovery mission," said Peter Knudsen, NTSB spokesman. "If human remains are encountered, an attempt would be made to recover them."

Investigators say a remotely operated, deep ocean vehicle called CURV-21 will use its video camera to document the wreckage and debris field, as well as attempt to locate and recover the data recorder -- the ship's "black box." That recorder would have captured the crew's conversations on the bridge as well as information about the ship's equipment, including engine performance and rudder movements.

The recorder would be on deck near the 790-foot ship's wheelhouse area, and its recovery would be more challenging if the ship had landed upside down, Knudsen said.

"We do know the ship, from the sonar-generated images, does appear to be upright, so that's encouraging," he said.

The recovery operations could take up to 15 days, depending on weather and sea conditions.

The CURV-21 is designed to work up to a maximum depth of 20,000 feet of seawater, according to the Navy. The El Faro was reported missing east of the Bahamas, and it apparently came to rest at a depth greater than the final resting place of the Titanic, which lies over 12,500 feet down in the north Atlantic.

"It's very, very challenging at those depths. Imagine operating something under about two-and-a-half miles of water with underwater currents and total darkness. Then you have the weather at the surface to account for," said Jim Staples, a ship captain and maritime consultant based in Norwell, Massachusetts.

Investigators will be looking for any significant signs of damage or visible clues as to whether the crew had time deploy life rafts, he said.

"There may be a telltale sign like her back is broken or that she's split in half and that caused a quick sinking," Staples said.

The El Faro's captain called in before the vessel disappeared, saying the ship had lost its engine power during its voyage from Jacksonville, Florida, to San Juan, Puerto Rico. The captain, Michael Davidson, said the ship was listing, and taking on water.

An extensive Coast Guard search after the El Faro's disappearance found only floating debris and one body in a survival suit, which was not recovered.

The El Faro was scheduled for retirement from Caribbean duty and for new retrofitting for service between the West Coast and Alaska, company officials have said. Both the El Faro and its sister ship were slated to be replaced by two new ships. Aboard when it disappeared were five engineers from Poland, who were working on the retrofitting as the ship sailed to Puerto Rico.

NTSB investigators have said Davidson intended to pass 65 miles from the center of the storm -- a risky decision, according to independent maritime experts.
Quoting 57. RitaEvac:

Not a word about the missing ship and crew in the Bahamas, everybody's minds have switched to something else a few days after the event. Always happens, it's all about "the Now factor" once that's gone, it's on to something else.


To be fair, this is a weather blog, and while the sinking of the El Faro is tragic and was caused by weather, it does not directly affect or influence the weather. At this point, the El Faro isn't weather news, it's just plain ol' news. If Bob Henson and Jeff Masters covered every event caused by the weather when every new bit of news was uncovered, they wouldn't have time to cover the substantive weather news that we come here for. Besides, what more could they add that the standard news outlets are not already covering?

It's tragic, and sad. But at some point, a line must be drawn between weather news and news news.
Eric Blake Retweeted
NWS Melbourne ‏@NWSMelbourne 53m53 minutes ago
Daytona Beach Airport has reached 90F. This sets the record for the warmest NOV temperature recorded at DAB.
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:



I suspect some All Time November records are in jeopardy this week across FL.


I think the all time record for Tampa in November is 92, which might be exceeded today.
Quoting 76. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the link and short clip from the article I referenced below as to Antarctic ice gain issues:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/05/antarc tic-researchers-ponder-challenges-posed-increasing -sea-ice


Scientists working in Antarctica are feeling the impact of climate change in ways the public might find surprising. Although global warming is causing Arctic ice to melt and glaciers around the world to shrink, the problem in Antarctica is that the sea ice surrounding the continent is increasing and now hampering ship navigation and resupply operations. This week, scientists and logistics experts from the 30 nations working on the continent are meeting in Hobart, Australia, to exchange ideas on coping with the sea ice challenge.

The underlying mechanism is fairly well understood, says Tony Worby, a sea ice specialist at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. "We know that the changing Antarctic sea ice extent is very largely driven by changes in wind,” he says. “In turn, we know those changes are driven by the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere as well as increasing greenhouse gases at the surface." The new wind patterns blow Antarctic sea ice away from the continent and then more ice forms close to shore. This doesn't occur in the Arctic because the ocean is hemmed in by land masses. And "it's quite a lot windier around Antarctica than in the Arctic," Worby says.

The area covered by Antarctic sea ice has been growing roughly 1.2% each decade since 1979. Last September, it reached a record 20 million square kilometers surrounding the 14 square kilometer continent. The combined 34 million square kilometers of ice at the end of the austral winter is more than 3.5 times the area of the United States.



We may have to jump hemispheres and live down in the southern hemisphere for the next 1,000 years until the northern hemisphere recovers. Better start building islands down in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans if we want land space. lol
Perhaps this has already been posted:

MIAMI (Reuters) - U.S. authorities confirmed on Monday that a large vessel found on the deep ocean floor off the Bahamas is the lost cargo ship El Faro, which sank with 33 mostly American crew in a hurricane last month.

The National Transportation Safety Board used a deep ocean remotely operated vehicle, CURV-21, to survey and confirm the identity of the ship.

The wreckage, in an upright position and intact, was found at a depth of nearly three miles (5 km) on Saturday in the vicinity of its last known location off Crooked Island in the southeastern Bahamas.
All Time November heat record broken in Daytona Beach. Could be some others before the day is out. Clermont to my west has reached 94 so far today.
Thank you for the update especially on the heat in the European zone.
Here we have had about 9 inches of rain today in the Valencia area and its still raining on and off. All sorts of damage on the beaches as bars have been severely affected by high waves.
Valencia area got 120 KPH winds or about 80 MPH today.

Sicily got very badly hit by storms yesterday with massive damage.

Yemen will hopefully be prepared for high winds and very heavy rain by now.
I'm concerned about the possible heavy flash flooding in the coastal valleys where they will probably have no experience of these kinds of torrential rains.
I've lived here my whole life. I don't recall it being this hot! Must be my old age lol
Quoting 16. HurricaneHunterJoe:



My buddy in Estero is gonna be pissy! He tells me the heat ends in October and then back in May and anytime that does not occur, he is in Major Bad Mood. I lived in Naples from 85-92 and that timeframe for the heat seemed about right......now, it seems everyone is warmer!
Quoting 83. StormTrackerScott:

All Time November heat record broken in Daytona Beach. Could be some others before the day is out. Clermont to my west has reached 94 so far today.
wait till Christmas it will be 100
Quoting 81. RitaEvac:



We may have to jump hemispheres and live down in the southern hemisphere for the next 1,000 years until the northern hemisphere recovers. Better start building islands down in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans if we want land space. lol


I can only speculate but I have to think that the greater impacts for the Northern Hemisphere from GW are related to the location of the biggest Co2 emisisons/industrial revolution in the Northern Hemisphere (Europe/Asia/Russia/North Pacific Rim/United States) and Northern Jet patterns (i.e. soot deposits on NH ice caps/glaciers).

The Southern Hemisphere (Brazil/SA/Africa, etc.) are relatively late entries in the industrial/fossil fuel era.......Give them a few more decades.............................
Quoting 64. StormTrackerScott:



Holding @ 92 here but the humidity is just ridiculous. Dewpoint is 74.


See now that is just so wrong, YIKES...
Quoting 71. ricderr:




what's strange...is...they reported it on our local fox news...and now...i can't see a darn thing about it......hmmmmmmm

Howdy Ric. They are still after the black box. One body has been recovered.
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:

Dewpoints in the 80's across parts of Tampa! Damm!


Time for a discussion on just what "wet bulb temperatures" really mean.

There is so much water vapor in the air, your clothes dyer doesn't work.
Quoting 85. SecretStormNerd:

I've lived here my whole life. I don't recall it being this hot! Must be my old age lol


This is quietly becoming a "Historic Heat Wave" for November in FL. Daytona broke its record @ 11:45am then the All Time record just before 3PM.
Quoting 91. ColoradoBob1:



Time for a discussion on just what "wet bulb temperatures" really mean.

There is so much water vapor in the air, your clothes dyer doesn't work.


Bob this is something. Never seen it so hot in November and what's amazing is that is supposed to be like this all week.
Quoting 90. hydrus:

Howdy Ric. They are still after the black box. One body has been recovered.



thanx hydrus
Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till Christmas it will be 100
For your leaves Keep..

Quoting 94. ricderr:




thanx hydrus
Welcome.
Some drier air relief for Florida is on the way; hopefully.....................

2 more weeks :-/
Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:



Bob this is something. Never seen it so hot in November and what's amazing is that is supposed to be like this all week.
Quoting 36. JRRP:

hmm






I have been seeing this for a day or 2 now. Models seems to be trying to develop the TW located near 40 WEST. You can clearly some type of vorticity with it at the surface in the visible loop below.



93 deg here.
Quoting 97. weathermanwannabe:

Some drier air relief for Florida is on the way; hopefully.....................




Not so fast because do you see what's heading NW from the Bahamas. Another plume of high PWAT air moving NW into FL. should be here later tomorrow into Wednesday.



Quoting 88. tampabaymatt:



Possibly, if I was here to “play” something. As it is, I come on the blog to discuss weather and hopefully learn a thing or two (luckily for me, I usually do). Bickering with others and belittling those who I disagree with doesn’t come across as a productive way to spend my day.


Is that supposed to be directed at me? I'm not bickering or belittling anyone. As for this particular comment, it was a joke directed at RitaEvac who seemed to get the humor in responding to your post with Patrap's frequent image. I always know when I failed at a joke here when I have to explain the joke and my subsequent "wink and nod" response. It means either I am not funny or my audience isn't sophisticated enough for my subtle humor (see this, it's a joke again, self depreciating even!). :) Sorry for any misunderstandings.
Quoting 95. hydrus:

For your leaves Keep..


thanks hydrus just what I need blow em all over to the other buildings
Quoting 67. StormTrackerScott:

El-Nino now @ 2.7C for Nino 3.4. May eclipse 3C for the first time ever over the next several weeks.






I think (might be wrong) I read somewhere that 2.7 was the highest weekly 3.4 value recorded during the Super Nino of 97-98. 2.8 was the highest for the 82-83 event, but the Super Nino held on to its peak longer and is therefore the more impressive event. We're certainly in the midst of a very powerful event.
Quoting 102. Naga5000:



Is that supposed to be directed at me? I'm not bickering or belittling anyone. As for this particular comment, it was a joke directed at RitaEvac who seemed to get the humor in responding to your post with Patrap's frequent image. I always know when I failed at a joke here when I have to explain the joke and my subsequent "wink and nod" response. It means either I am not funny or my audience isn't sophisticated enough for my subtle humor (see this, it's a joke again, self depreciating even!). :) Sorry for any misunderstandings.


I really don't care to discuss it further. If you guys want to post that picture multiple times a day, so be it. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. Enjoy!
8 more days till Nov 10, the USMC Birthday

1775-2015

Quoting 106. LargoFl:


Quoting 72. RitaEvac:




I sure do love this warm weather, only thing were missing is the afternoon Thunderstorms and hurricanes.
Quoting 105. TimSoCal:



I think (might be wrong) I read somewhere that 2.7 was the highest weekly 3.4 value recorded during the Super Nino of 97-98. 2.8 was the highest for the 82-83 event, but the Super Nino held on to its peak longer and is therefore the more impressive event. We're certainly in the midst of a very powerful event.


2.8C peak for 1997 & 1982 but those peaks occurred later in November. So as it stands we could surpass 3C as many models suggest and what is impressive to me is that we have been 2C or higher now since mid August something 1997 & 1982 couldn't do so early in the event.
Quoting 109. NativeSun:

I sure do love this warm weather, only thing were missing is the afternoon Thunderstorms and hurricanes.


We actually have some cells popping over on the westside of FL. Very much a summer time look outside.
Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:



Bob this is something. Never seen it so hot in November and what's amazing is that is supposed to be like this all week.


STS -
In 2007 I remember a fire fighter saying these words :
"We've never seen this before".
If had had a nickle for everyone who's said that since then , I'd be as rich as Trump.
116. 882MB
914
FXCA62 TJSJ 021858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ON FRIDAY A TROUGH WILL FORM ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. OVER THE WEEKEND A
WEAK JET SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CAUSE A TROUGH TO FORM OVER
PUERTO RICO THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. IT RETREATS TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY BUT RETURNS TO NORTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FINALLY IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEST HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERATING MODERATE
TRADE WINDS CARRYING BANDS OF ALTERNATING MOIST AND DRY AIR. THIS
IS CONTINUED WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS RECEDES TO THE
WEST...TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS INCREASE RESULTING IN LESS
INSTABILITY AS SEEN BY THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED SO FAR
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE MODERATE IN SCOPE
AND INTENSITY. THE MIMIC PRODUCT REVEALS THAT THERE IS A NARROW
DRY SLOT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER CROSSING INTO PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON HAVING ERASED MOST OF THE SHOWERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT LEAVES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL NO LONGER BE AIDING THE INSTABILITY...BUT THERE WILL BE
GOOD MOISTURE TO CREATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE AS BANDS OF MOIST
AND DRY AIR ARE BROUGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 50 WEST ON FRIDAY...MOVE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY WITH UNUSUALLY
GOOD MOISTURE...AND FORM A VIGOROUS LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH GIVING PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ANOTHER DOSE OF RAIN IN THE EFFORT TO
SLAY ANY LINGERING DOUBTS THAT THE DAYS OF THIS DROUGHT ARE COMING
TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...-SHRA/TSRA THRU 02/22Z ACROSS WESTERN PR...WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY
JMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-22
KTS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE INCREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE 6 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. SEAS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN BOTH ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME WITH SOME NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 88 / 70 70 30 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 70 70 30 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12

Quoting 105. TimSoCal:



I think (might be wrong) I read somewhere that 2.7 was the highest weekly 3.4 value recorded during the Super Nino of 97-98. 2.8 was the highest for the 82-83 event, but the Super Nino held on to its peak longer and is therefore the more impressive event. We're certainly in the midst of a very powerful event.
I believe this Nino is nothing like the 97/98 event, lets do a comparison with regions 1.2 and 3. This could turn into a Super Modoki Nino, later this Month into December. Would make for some interesting times, and can't wait for the La Nina come late Summer and Fall of 2016.
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:



I suspect some All Time November records are in jeopardy this week across FL.


As Bob said, the temps we've had here the last couple days is the warmest ever recorded in Tallahassee for this time of year!

Rapidly acidifying waters pose major threat for Southern Ocean ecosystem

As a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, the chemistry of the Southern Ocean is expected to change so fast over the next few decades that tiny creatures at the base of the food web may soon struggle to form their shells. New research by scientists from the University of Hawai'i, Mānoa (UHM) and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks (UAF) finds that for some organisms the onset of such critical conditions will be so abrupt, and the duration of events so long, that adaption may become impossible.

Read more at: Link
Quoting 59. tampabaymatt:



Daytona Beach broke a record high by 11:45 this morning.
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:

Dewpoints in the 80's across parts of Tampa! Damm!
It is freakin hotttt in St Augustine too! I could use a few more expletives but I won't... Don't want the ban hammer comin down on me...
Euro 12z develops the next system right on Chapala's track - albeit much weaker:

Quoting 117. NativeSun:

I believe this Nino is nothing like the 97/98 event, lets do a comparison with regions 1.2 and 3. This could turn into a Super Modoki Nino, later this Month into December. Would make for some interesting times, and can't wait for the La Nina come late Summer and Fall of 2016.


Your right it isn't, its just stronger than 1997 and longer lasting.
Thanks Bob for making note of my discussion of the extreme heat here in Tallahassee in your blog write up :)

I've been busy studying exams, so I didn't bother to check to see where this heat ranks, but I had a feeling it was close to all time records, and sure enough, it is!

I think what is so incredible about this event, is that it is with moisture as well. Dry air that lacks in water vapor is much easier to reach higher temps, and in the past when we would see significant heat in Florida outside of the rainy season, it's usually dry air, which is not only easier to reach, but doesn't feel too bad. But this heat combined with these kind of dew points is just crazy!

Here again today we have historic heat in Tallahassee combined with summer level dew points, the heat index is nearly 100!!

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39NLon: 84.35WElev: 79ft.

Mostly Cloudy

88F

31C
Humidity 63%
Wind Speed S 10 mph
Barometer 29.88 in (1011.8 mb)
Dewpoint 74F (23C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 97F (36C)
Last update 2 Nov 2:53 pm EST
On the European weather front.
I posted this link this morning to the storm damage on the island of Sicily. Its quiet a lot of costal devastation and winds of about 80 MPH.
Lots of photos and a video.

Link
Quoting 114. ColoradoBob1:



STS -
In 2007 I remember a fire fighter saying these words :
"We've never seen this before".
If had had a nickle for everyone who's said that since then , I'd be as rich as Trump.


Boy how much I gotta tell you, daggum climate change is a commie scam!
Quoting 124. Jedkins01:

Thanks Bob for making note of my discussion of the extreme heat here in Tallahassee in your blog write up :)

I've been busy studying exams, so I didn't bother to check to see where this heat ranks, but I had a feeling it was close to all time records, and sure enough, it is!

I think what is so incredible about this event, is that it is with moisture as well. Dry air that lacks in water vapor is much easier to reach higher temps, and in the past when we would see significant heat in Florida outside of the rainy season, it's usually dry air, which is not only easier to reach, but doesn't feel too bad. But this heat combined with these kind of dew points is just crazy!

Here again today we have historic heat in Tallahassee combined with summer level dew points, the heat index is nearly 100!!

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39�NLon: 84.35�WElev: 79ft.

Mostly Cloudy

88�F

31�C
Humidity 63%
Wind Speed S 10 mph
Barometer 29.88 in (1011.8 mb)
Dewpoint 74�F (23�C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 97�F (36�C)
Last update 2 Nov 2:53 pm EST


We haven't even dipped below 65 for a low yet this Fall.
Quoting 109. NativeSun:

I sure do love this warm weather, only thing were missing is the afternoon Thunderstorms and hurricanes.


As weird as weather has been these days, just watch, FL get a major hurricane landfall this month... lol
Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:



Your right it isn't, its just stronger than 1997 and longer lasting.

Scott I couldn't agree with you more brother!! I have to check if we are related. I got Killed on Twitter for hypothesizing about a Central pacific Super Nino. If this is the case, like it is masterfully said here buckle up the seat belts. New England and the mid - atlantic could get crushed with snow!!
Category 2 Chapala is beginning to move ashore the coastline of Yemen. Given the topography of the region where Chapala is making landfall, coupled with the region's inexperience with tropical cyclones, coupled with the cyclone's slow motion, coupled with external factors such as an ongoing civil war, the possibility of a death count in the hundreds is very real. My thoughts go out to everyone there.

Quoting 122. barbamz:

Euro 12z develops the next system right on Chapala's track - albeit much weaker:




Been keeping an eye on that - it's the first run to show it strengthen into more than a Tropical Depression. The GFS shows an area of low pressure (maybe a TD), but hasn't strengthened it much in any run yet. Something to keep an eye on, especially as it seems it may take a very similar track to Chapala.
Quoting 127. StormTrackerScott:



We haven't even dipped below 65 for a low yet this Fall.



Lol that's bad, what is lame for us that we were actually getting quite cool during early October and late September when we had multiple fronts that resulted in some days with highs as cool as the low 70's and lows dipping into the low 50's and even a couple nights in the 40's. Who would have thought 3 weeks later in early November we'd be getting into all time record territory with highs nearly reaching 90 along with lows that even are warm for August in the upper 70's with mid 70's dew points...
Here is a chart of the interesting little depression number which has been bothering us for the last 3 days.

Quoting 27. HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, the heat just gets old when it extends into the months where it is supposed to cool down some. Being a lifelong Floridian, I expect April through October to be very warm to hot. October is usually a warm, muggy month here with a few pleasant days mixed in. April can have pleasant temperatures, but with the high sun angle, it feels hot if you are in the sun anyways. 89F here and we should get to at least 90F this afternoon. I'm not really a fan of hot weather regardless, what I appreciate about the summer months is the thunderstorms.

We have had a long streak of "boring" weather here. We had some intense storms this summer (of course), but I did not observe a single storm approaching severe limits this year. No strong wind events in years. The weather in Northern Virginia was WAY more interesting in any given season than here.


I guess it all depends on perspective, as annoying as this heat is for the cooler season, and as much as I'd like cooler air, I'd rather live here than living in a place where many days I wake up to a low of 10 getting up for work and have to scrape ice.
In fact as much as I'd hate to have heat in January, I'd rather have high's near 90 with high humidity in January than live in a place like Detroit in January. At least warm weather lifts the spirits and overall is better on human health, and though hot sticky days get old, I'd rather sweat than slowly get more and more depressed as my body attempts to hibernate like a bear during a brutally cold winter.

I like comfortably cool breezes, but cold weather with snow and ice to me is even more miserable than hot sticky days, so I'd rather deal with some discomfort in Florida than worse up north.

Also, I wouldn't count on Virginia having more interesting thunderstorms, NOAA's data says Orlando has far more thunderstorm days than anywhere in Virginia, and because on average instability is much higher on a day to day basis in Orlando, by probability, you'll experience notably more interesting storms over the course of 10 years in Florida than in Virginia. That doesn't mean Virginia won't have days with more interesting thunderstorms than FL, it just means that data supports that Florida averages a lot more days with them, so on average, you'll see more interesting convective weather in Florida where there is more heat, more water vapor, more instability, and more thunderstorms, on average.
It was nice to sit outside with the kids last week due to the cloudiness and wind. Stuck back inside. The pavers in the driveway make it 10 degrees hotter than actual temp.
Quoting 100. Grothar:

93 deg here.
Quoting 90. hydrus:

Howdy Ric. They are still after the black box. One body has been recovered.


Is this different from the one in the suit?
Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:



Your right it isn't, its just stronger than 1997 and longer lasting.
1997 is still stronger.
Quoting 120. ColoradoBob1:

Rapidly acidifying waters pose major threat for Southern Ocean ecosystem

As a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, the chemistry of the Southern Ocean is expected to change so fast over the next few decades that tiny creatures at the base of the food web may soon struggle to form their shells. New research by scientists from the University of Hawai'i, Mānoa (UHM) and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks (UAF) finds that for some organisms the onset of such critical conditions will be so abrupt, and the duration of events so long, that adaption may become impossible.

Read more at: Link
We're all doomed...no kidding. That is terrible news. We may be at the top of the food chain, but sometime in the not so distant future we'll be at the top of nothing. It's terrible to think about how this global warming not only affects us but affects every creature on the planet.
Quoting 111. barbamz:



It looks like the centre for landfall is just slightly west on the coast of Al Mukallah.
There are a few other towns on that coast.

Link
It's official, new all time record has been set here today in Tallahassee for November with a high of 89!!!

Bear in mind this was done with also a 74 dew point and a 98 heat index! Moist air is harder to heat up than dry air due to the higher specific heat capacity of dry air compared to moist air, so it if was dry air like most non-summer warmth records are reached, by, it could have easily soared well into the 90's...

For the same reason, the low was also an incredible warm 78 this morning!


BTW, it's thundering with pretty loud deep rumbles from some approaching thunderstorms that looks pretty decent. The thunder has that loud deep rumble like summer sea breeze activity compared to usual dry season activity thanks to the hot temps and higher dew points.

Thunderstorms, please, please please hold together so we can get a good soaking. We are parched dry here, only 0.24 has fallen since October 2nd.
Quoting 118. Grothar:


gonna be warm up here all week as well late Indian summer one could say
A hail storm -

Huge ice flash flood sweeps across Saudi Arabia (VIDEO)

Saudi Arabia has been hit by unprecedented ice flash floods, as seasonal low pressure brings huge downpours to Iraq and Iran as well. The shocking video shows chunks of ice the size of large ball bearings. ...................... As of October 30, 19 people across the region have been killed. In Saudi Arabia the floods claimed six lives. Civil Defense officials have carried out 50 successful rescues.

Link
The only things enjoying this heat in Florida are the snakes (which are usually already hiding by this time of year), the mosquitos and the roaches!
Quoting 141. Jedkins01:

It's official, new all time record has been set here today in Tallahassee for November with a high of 89!!!

Bear in mind this was done with also a 74 dew point and a 98 heat index! Moist air is harder to heat up than dry air due to the higher specific heat capacity of dry air compared to moist air, so it if was dry air like most non-summer warmth records are reached, by, it could have easily soared well into the 90's...

For the same reason, the low was also an incredible warm 78 this morning!


Wet bulb temperatures really matter to human health. If this event came in July last summer, you folks would be burying old folks by the thousands.
Quoting 117. NativeSun:

I believe this Nino is nothing like the 97/98 event, lets do a comparison with regions 1.2 and 3. This could turn into a Super Modoki Nino, later this Month into December. Would make for some interesting times, and can't wait for the La Nina come late Summer and Fall of 2016.


It's definitely a different beast from 1997-98, no doubt about it. Here's the peak of that event, November 1997:



And here's today:



Just for kicks, here's January 1983, the peak of the other event. The anomaly profile seems closer to what we're dealing with now than does 1997.

Amazing all the stories we have seen where storms rake Spain, France, Italy , the Blakans ., and on into the Mideast. They make Texas seem mild, because the just keep coming.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
23:30 PM IST November 2 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala over west central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards with a speed of about 18 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over Gulf of Aden and adjoining west central Arabian Sea near 13.7N 49.6E, about 110 km south of Riyan (Yemen) (41443) and 600 km south west of Salalah (Oman) (41316).

It would move west northwestwards, weaken further and cross Yemen coast to the south of Riyan with maximum sustained wind speed of 65-70 knots gusting to 80 knots by 11:30AM IST/0600 AM UTC on November 3rd.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T4.5 and CI 5.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over area between 10.5N to 16.5N and 47.5E to 52.0E and north coastal Yemen. Convection is eye pattern. Eye is ragged and is well defined in infrared and visible imagery. Eye diameter is about 30 km.The minimum temperature in wall cloud region is -68C. The convection in wall cloud region continues disorganization indicating weakening trend of the system.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 80 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 972 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 14.2N 47.9E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 16.0N 45.7E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
=================
The sea surface temperature around the system center is about 29C and it decreases towards the west. The ocean thermal energy is about 30-50 kj/cm2 around the system center and it decreases further to the west northwest. The vertical wind shear around the system center has slightly increased and is about 5-15 knots .It further increases towards the northwest. The low level relative vorticity remained same and is about 150 x10-5sec-1. Upper level divergence is about 10x 10-5sec-1 and low level convergence is around 30x 10-5sec-1. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. The system would move west northwestwards. Intrusion of dry air from the northwest continues surrounding the wall cloud region which is helping in weakening of the system. The system is interacting with land surface with spiral band lying over Yemen. However, due to prevalence of weak vertical wind shear the adverse impact of dry air intrusion and land surface interaction has been slow. However, due to decrease in upper level divergence and increase in vertical wind shear due to west northwestward movement, the rate of weakening will now increase gradually.
much the same tomorrow
Quoting 143. ColoradoBob1:

A hail storm -

Huge ice flash flood sweeps across Saudi Arabia (VIDEO)

Saudi Arabia has been hit by unprecedented ice flash floods, as seasonal low pressure brings huge downpours to Iraq and Iran as well. The shocking video shows chunks of ice the size of large ball bearings. ...................... As of October 30, 19 people across the region have been killed. In Saudi Arabia the floods claimed six lives. Civil Defense officials have carried out 50 successful rescues.

Link

somethings coming and its out of our hands
Washington (AFP) - The United States confirmed Monday that sunken wreckage detected by the Navy is that of the freighter El Faro, which went down last month during Hurricane Joaquin.

The wreckage was first found Saturday off the Bahamas at a depth of 15,000 feet (4,500 meters) by a sonar device deployed by the Navy. At that point the National Transportation Safety Board said it was believed to be El Faro.

The NTSB confirmed Monday that it was in fact El Faro, which had been carrying a crew of 33 people, mostly Americans.
It rained over 2 feet on Sicily in 2 days.

Be glad you were not under that .
Quoting 145. ColoradoBob1:



Wet bulb temperatures really matter to human health. If this event came in July last summer, you folks would be burying old folks by the thousands.


Well southern cities this far south usually deal with heat fine due to the abundance of A/C units, buildings not designed to hold in the heat as much, and overall more awareness of heat. It's been overall a much hotter and drier than average year in Tallahassee. In fact Tallahassee had many days with highs near or above 100 with dew points in the mid to at times upper 70's and even low 80's leading to heat index readings of 110-115 this summer and I don't recall any deaths. I remember one extremely hot stretch this summer where the high was 101 and the heat index was nearly 120. I didn't live here over whole the summer, but I did arrive at the end of summer as usual to begin school, and it was still horribly hot. Such numbers usually don't lead to many deaths here, but they sure do further north.
Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

somethings coming and its out of our hands


Yes I know, Hell, and it's coming to breakfast.
One tornado warning up in GA between NE of Albany/SE of Savannah \
Southeast sector loop

Quoting 153. BayFog:

Washington (AFP) - The United States confirmed Monday that sunken wreckage detected by the Navy is that of the freighter El Faro, which went down last month during Hurricane Joaquin.

The wreckage was first found Saturday off the Bahamas at a depth of 15,000 feet (4,500 meters) by a sonar device deployed by the Navy. At that point the National Transportation Safety Board said it was believed to be El Faro.

The NTSB confirmed Monday that it was in fact El Faro, which had been carrying a crew of 33 people, mostly Americans.


hopefully they will get the recorders see if they can piece this together

as for me well they took the shot against nature tried too beat the storm well nature won with a price
About to get slammed in Tallahassee with a strong elongated storm cell.
162. N3EG
Up here in the PNW we had about 4 inches of rain in the last 3 days, with more in the mountains. That usually doesn't happen until late November.
Quoting 154. ColoradoBob1:

It rained over 2 feet on Sicily in 2 days.

Be glad you were not under that .



i wish i was
Quoting 140. PlazaRed:


It looks like the centre for landfall is just slightly west on the coast of Al Mukallah.
There are a few other towns on that coast.
Link

Yes, not many, but some. I've checked it with Google Earth as well. On the way westwards along the coast (one third of the distance towards Aden) there are

- in the Mukalla Bay the towns of Fuwah and Burum (the latter with 2700 Inhabitants ten years ago);
- then little hamlets like As Sufal and Bir Ali.
- Then a quite important industrial port with airstrip named "Balhaf" in a volcanic region (Balhaf got an English article in Wikipedia);
- then some more villages like Jil'ah, Al Hawrah, Al Irqah.

So far the area of probable landfall - if Chapala will keep on tracking to the northwest (the minority of some models predicts a turn to the southwest after skirting the coast).
Quoting 155. Jedkins01:



Well southern cities this far south usually deal with heat fine due to the abundance of A/C units, buildings not designed to hold in the heat as much, and overall more awareness of heat. It's been overall a much hotter and drier than average year in Tallahassee. In fact Tallahassee had many days with highs near or above 100 with dew points in the mid to at times upper 70's and even low 80's leading to heat index readings of 110-115 this summer and I don't recall any deaths. I remember one extremely hot stretch this summer where the high was 101 and the heat index was nearly 120. I didn't live here over whole the summer, but I did arrive at the end of summer as usual to begin school, and it was still horribly hot. Such numbers usually don't lead to many deaths here, but they sure do further north.


Thanks, but this only because we dig up Wyoming to keep old people alive in FLA. When the grid crashes , and it will . They will die like flies, and I say this as 66 year-old man.
Don't expect a good cold dry front until next week in Florida!!!
This month reminds me of November of 1982. At least the first week!
Quoting 162. N3EG:

Up here in the PNW we had about 4 inches of rain in the last 3 days, with more in the mountains. That usually doesn't happen until late November.


Buckle your chin strap.
I was just catching up on Twitter and decided to check out what JB is up to. Normal hype but his AGW comments are laughable. I don't get how someone of his education and knowledge of science can be in such denial. Doesn't he realize it is call "global" for a reason?

Looks like landfall is quite imminent.

Who is this JB character?
Quoting 172. SecretStormNerd:

Who is this JB character?


Joe Bastardi is a meteorologist. A bit aggressive with his forecasts and a non-believer of climate change. (At least not the AGW type)
Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:



Your right it isn't, its just stronger than 1997 and longer lasting.


Not stronger, at least not yet. Patience is required, it makes the whole thing more exciting. Nino 3.4 ONI has to beat +2.3C anomaly. The conditions are right as long as it doesn't peak too early, that is never good!


Portugal floods: elderly man dies after heavy storm hits Algarve

The storm swept away cars, uprooted trees and washed away roads. Stores in the town centre were flooded with brown water almost to the ceiling.

There were reports of waves up to five metres high coupled with winds of about 50mph.


Link
Quoting 169. Bucsboltsfan:

I was just catching up on Twitter and decided to check out what JB is up to. Normal hype but his AGW comments are laughable. I don't get how someone of his education and knowledge of science can be in such denial. Doesn't he realize it is call "global" for a reason?


He has $20 a month memberships to sell. I'm pretty sure he is just another grifter playing on the gullible or maybe he actually believes his own stuff. Either way, he's getting rich and his product includes very special anti-AGW messaging.
Quoting 173. Greg01:



Joe Bastardi is a meteorologist. A bit aggressive with his forecasts and a non-believer of climate change. (At least not the AGW type)


A bit aggressive? To say the least. He's all hype and when he's right (every once in a whIle) he brags about it.
Quoting 165. ColoradoBob1:



Thanks, but this only because we dig up Wyoming to keep old people alive in FLA. When the grid crashes , and it will . They will die like flies, and I say this as 66 year-old man.


For sure, even younger people could die that aren't in good health and don't stay hydrated if the power went out. One of the largest causes of death is people who remain in hot human structures when the power is out. It would be safe for people to stay outdoors in the shade with lots of water. Back home where my parents live in the Tampa Bay area, our house A/C broke during a hot day where the high was 96 with high dew points in August, thankfully our neighbors somehow took notice and called us saying they heard our dogs and cats crying in the house to get out. We rushed home and thankfully we were able to get them out without any major health issues. But man, the indoor temp was 98, and I could see how even a healthy person could die in that. Every object in the house was hot to touch, radiating lots of heat. It was a sad day for our pets but they thankfully made it through without any major health issues. We brought them all outside into shady area under a tree and camped in the back yard to stay out of the horrible in door heat.

We got a much better A/C to make sure it's much less likely to break under high stress, this was 10 year ago, no problems since.
Quoting 176. Naga5000:



He has $20 a month memberships to sell. I'm pretty sure he is just another grifter playing on the gullible or maybe he actually believes his own stuff. Either way, he's getting rich and his product includes very special anti-AGW messaging.


He's hyping global cooling after this El Niño retreats. I have no background in meteorology but I feel fairly confident in saying he is wrong.
We just had a really heavy down pour along with strong gusty winds and some loud thunder, felt like an August heavy thunderstorm. It didn't last long as it was fast moving, so we only picked up just over 0.50, but it fell in a very short time, and it was well needed. This was the best activity I've seen here since last semester in the Spring. Looks like it will be a close call whether we get a lot of rain or not with the next cell. Hard to tell if it will pass through here or just east of here, am hoping we get another round of needed heavy rain.

The rain deficit is huge here, we could get 10 inches of rain in a week and we'd still be quite below average.
Quoting 139. Loduck:

We're all doomed...no kidding. That is terrible news. We may be at the top of the food chain, but sometime in the not so distant future we'll be at the top of nothing. It's terrible to think about how this global warming not only affects us but affects every creature on the planet.

Loduck
Watch the smallest things they own the world, we serve at their pleasure.
Quoting 179. Bucsboltsfan:



He's hyping global cooling after this El Niño retreats. I have no background in meteorology but I feel fairly confident in saying he is wrong.


He's actually been hyping cooling since 2007. He calls it "The Triple Crown of Cooling". Any day now, just you watch.
Quoting 179. Bucsboltsfan:



He's hyping global cooling after this El Nio retreats. I have no background in meteorology but I feel fairly confident in saying he is wrong.
rofl
184. MahFL
Chapala looks like it moved a bit north on it's path towards that major city.
Quoting 177. Bucsboltsfan:



A bit aggressive? To say the least. He's all hype and when he's right (every once in a whIle) he brags about it.


Someone here posted a long range forecast of his a few years ago that called for a series of La Ninas and falling global temperatures. I believe the subtitle was "worst forecast ever". This is just memory so I could be a bit inaccurate.
Quoting 178. Jedkins01:



For sure, even younger people could die that aren't in good health and don't stay hydrated if the power went out. One of the largest causes of death is people who remain in hot human structures when the power is out. It would be safe for people to stay outdoors in the shade with lots of water. Back home where my parents live in the Tampa Bay area, our house A/C broke during a hot day where the high was 96 with high dew points in August, thankfully our neighbors somehow took notice and called us saying they heard our dogs and cats crying in the house to get out. We rushed home and thankfully we were able to get them out without any major health issues. But man, the indoor temp was 98, and I could see how even a healthy person could die in that. Every object in the house was hot to touch, radiating lots of heat. It was a sad day for our pets but they thankfully made it through without any major health issues. We brought them all outside into shady area under a tree and camped in the back yard to stay out of the horrible in door heat.

We got a much better A/C to make sure it's much less likely to break under high stress, this was 10 year ago, no problems since.


2015 Indian heat wave

In May 2015, India was struck by a severe heat wave.[3] As of 3 June 2015, it has caused the deaths of more than 2,500 people[1][2]

Wiki

As I said, wet bulb temperatures are deadly to human health . I have 2 more examples of this as the summer progressed , in Pakistan, and Iran. All near the ocean. With record SST's.
Quoting 30. HurrMichaelOrl:

A sunny afternoon in the mid to upper 40s to walk the dog wearing a jacket and jeans would feel so good right about now.


I remember this feeling most early septembers here, anticipating the cooldown. Dogs do too. Then in November (maybe not this week though) it's cold enough to be annoying. No woodstove fire in Oct this year and that.s unusual. Despite earlier fears, my garden has not fully frozen out and I'm still getting peas, peppers and potatoes
are growing. Tomatoes don't like nights in the 40s and taste bad once exposed so they're done. but overall this warmth is welcome. Not as extreme here in Mid Atlantic compared with other years (1974 and 1975). 1974 BTW was very cold the first half of fall with transition to warm about Oct 20. 1975 was just warm most of fall. I guess our best analog to what STS is seeing for us happened in October 2007, warmest of record with a three day heat wave of days over 90F but most of the month was extremely warm for the season.

If global cooling is under way, why is Finland setting new heat records ?
Following twitter in different languages (with different sat pics; here another one) I guess it's safe to say that Chapala made landfall in the the Bay of Mukalla (other towns there see post #164) with Mukalla probably in the most violent right quadrant of the storm. Power is out in the city as well. And, as most of you will know, it's deep in the night. Sure one hell down there. Thoughts to the folks affected!

Quoting 179. Bucsboltsfan:



He's hyping global cooling after this El Niño retreats. I have no background in meteorology but I feel fairly confident in saying he is wrong.


Maybe that is why StormTrackerScott misspoke and once had a strange post that just said "2017 cool year across the globe". He may have actually heard that from a Met. who said that is true. It makes me glad we a group on WU that is a tad more conservative regarding long range forecasts. Steve Gregory has absolutely solid since he joined and I have read his blog. in case anyone hasn't checked it out there is a lot of good stuff there from a conservative point of view regarding forecasting with confidence level shown for pattern and magnitude.
Quoting 184. MahFL:

Chapala looks like it moved a bit north on it's path towards that major city.


It looks from latest satellite images that Mukalla is taking a direct hit...
Quoting 165. ColoradoBob1:



Thanks, but this only because we dig up Wyoming to keep old people alive in FLA. When the grid crashes , and it will . They will die like flies, and I say this as 66 year-old man.

Buildings can become hot deathtraps when the AC fails at these temperatures and dewpoints. But well ventilated structures and outdoors out of the sun is still safe if well hydrated and not exercising. The Indian Subcontinent gets much worse combinations of dewpoint and sensible temperature than FL.

Once the kids are out of the house I have considered doing the experiment of going the whole summer without AC. I did this as a stubborn teen in an attic bedroom in August 1974 in DC and survived because I wanted to show my energy consuming parents it could be done. August 1974 however was not notably hot, averaging about normal.

Quoting 151. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

much the same tomorrow

insanely warm over the south :/
189. barbamz

You do excellent work if IBM doesn't hire you they are fools.
Quoting 188. ColoradoBob1:

If global cooling is under way, why is Finland setting new heat records ?


You can set heat records from dynamics in a cooling atmosphere. Summer 1816 in New England had a notable early season heat wave just prior to the frosts and snowstorms in June. And March 1910, a very cold year globally had a warm event similar to March 2012. There is much more solid evidence than weather anomalies that AGW is happening and will be severe to possibly catastrophic for mankind but you already know this.

meanwhile stay cool.. that expression will become more relevant in future southeast summers.
Thunderstorms have developed along the crest of the coast ranges north of SF Bay and are moving south. Heavy rain, hail and lightning are moving thru the Napa Valley and a flash flood warning is out for the burned areas.
November sea-breeze showers blew through downtown Orlando today, very unusual so late in the year.
Quoting 191. ScottGridley:



It looks from latest satellite images that Mukalla is taking a direct hit...


I fear what news is coming out of that city over the next days.

Stu Ostro -@StuOstro 11 Min.Vor 11 Minuten
A sight not seen b4, since none in satellite era: landfall of trop cyclone this strong this part of #Yemen #Chapala


RAM meteorologia -@RAM_meteo 9 Min.Vor 9 Minuten
El ojo de #Chapala ya en tierra de #Yemen
Quoting 200. barbamz:


Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro 11 Min.Vor 11 Minuten
A sight not seen b4, since none in satellite era: landfall of trop cyclone this strong this part of #Yemen #Chapala

So not only do they have screaming gales, driving rain and no power but its also the middle of the night and probably virtually nobody in the city has ever seen anything like this before.
As Colorado Bob said. " Hell is coming to breakfast," although it will be a very wet and miserable place to tomorrow morning.
With a situation like this you can only hope for the best but also fear the situation is very bad.
Bob Henson is on TWC talking about El Nino right now.

Update : He's finished and they've gone to commercial.
Ohhhh yeah. I remember now. I'm sure he is also an avid Fox News fan.
Quoting 177. Bucsboltsfan:



A bit aggressive? To say the least. He's all hype and when he's right (every once in a whIle) he brags about it.
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Quoting 194. ColoradoBob1:

189. barbamz
You do excellent work if IBM doesn't hire you they are fools.

Lol, thanks, Bob. But I guess I'm too expensive for IBM :-P And now I hit the cushions as tomorrow I have to get up very early. Good night everyone.
Looking at this image that Bob Henson posted in the blog, is not hard to imagine where all that water, both from the sea and the rain, is going to go.

Quoting 204. Patrap:

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



Hmm, Pat, COC still offshore? --- Well, I'll check out tomorrow what you guys will find out later on.
Riyan Yemen with winds NE 73 gusting to 89 mph
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

click image for loop

Quoting 139. Loduck:

We're all doomed...no kidding. That is terrible news. We may be at the top of the food chain, but sometime in the not so distant future we'll be at the top of nothing. It's terrible to think about how this global warming not only affects us but affects every creature on the planet.
How long do you think we have? Wondering if I should retire early and enjoy my last few years.
Quoting 76. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the link and short clip from the article I referenced below as to Antarctic ice gain issues:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/05/antarc tic-researchers-ponder-challenges-posed-increasing -sea-ice
The sea ice comes and goes down there each year.



The big concern is the ice cap which is larger than one might realize. Here is a map showing the outline of the ice cap and the areas where bed rock is above sea level.

While measuring the size of the ice cap is not straight forward, here is a study for the years 2003-2014 indicating that the mass of the ice cap is decreasing: Gravity data show that Antarctic ice sheet is melting increasingly faster.

Thanks to cytochromeC (via JohnLonergan) for that link.
Quoting 209. Patrap:

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

click image for loop


Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
Quoting 147. TimSoCal:



It's definitely a different beast from 1997-98, no doubt about it. Here's the peak of that event, November 1997:



And here's today:



Just for kicks, here's January 1983, the peak of the other event. The anomaly profile seems closer to what we're dealing with now than does 1997.


Yes Tim, it does look like it's closer to the Nino in 83, and this could out to be a very strong Modoki type Nino.
And we have landfall in YEMEN of TC Chapala! Yemen......just does not roll off the tongue.....LOL
2330 UTC

Quoting 169. Bucsboltsfan:

I was just catching up on Twitter and decided to check out what JB is up to. Normal hype but his AGW comments are laughable. I don't get how someone of his education and knowledge of science can be in such denial. Doesn't he realize it is call "global" for a reason?
Hi Bucs, lets wait a few years before we see how laughable his statements really are, he states that if his research is wrong he will admit it. I'm curious about some of his view points and will not condemn someone until proven wrong.
Quoting 177. Bucsboltsfan:



A bit aggressive? To say the least. He's all hype and when he's right (every once in a whIle) he brags about it.
He is right a lot more then he is wrong, but that is another subject, for another day. I like his long range forecast, along with his winter and tropical forecast.
219. MahFL
Still pretty solid over land :

Quoting 185. wartsttocs:



Someone here posted a long range forecast of his a few years ago that called for a series of La Ninas and falling global temperatures. I believe the subtitle was "worst forecast ever". This is just memory so I could be a bit inaccurate.
Well by looking at the NCEP charts, the temp is actually stable or slightly cooling. I find the charts interesting as they are updated every 6 hrs.
Quoting 217. NativeSun:

Hi Bucs, lets wait a few years before we how laughable his statements really are, he states that if his research is wrong he will admit it. I'm curious about some of his view points and will not condemn someone until proven wrong.

JB's issues with AGW are based in theology, not in science. Are you seriously suggesting that we should hold off on addressing what is regarded as an existential threat by the great majority scientists working in the field because of what someone very much on the fringe says?
Quoting 221. NativeSun:

Well by looking at the NCEP charts, the temp is actually stable or slightly cooling. I find the charts interesting as they are updated every 6 hrs.

Then why did your pal JB just proclaim Oct. as easily the warmest in the NCEP record?
Quoting 190. wartsttocs:



Maybe that is why StormTrackerScott misspoke and once had a strange post that just said "2017 cool year across the globe". He may have actually heard that from a Met. who said that is true. It makes me glad we a group on WU that is a tad more conservative regarding long range forecasts. Steve Gregory has absolutely solid since he joined and I have read his blog. in case anyone hasn't checked it out there is a lot of good stuff there from a conservative point of view regarding forecasting with confidence level shown for pattern and magnitude. Lets wait and see what happens after this Nino is over, which should be by late Spring 2016, the temps will not cool immediately, but according to his forecast should cool over a couple years.
Here it comes.

Quoting 210. Kenfa03:

How long do you think we have? Wondering if I should retire early and enjoy my last few years.
Yes, if I were you I would retire tomorrow, just hope you saved enough money to last you for a very long time.
I think it's time to move on from the Modiki classification for our current event since it's misleading at best. Yes there is proportionately more warming now in central pacific relative to 1997. However, we are seeing a classic El Nino ocean warming signature as well as an El Nino atmospheric response that is stronger than 1997. Please listen to the pros and do a little research first.
Where in the heck is fall!?!?
Quoting 226. TimSoCal:

Here it comes.




Seems to have come and went here. PWS stations reporting either 0.01 or 0.00 inches.
Quoting 221. NativeSun:

Well by looking at the NCEP charts, the temp is actually stable or slightly cooling. I find the charts interesting as they are updated every 6 hrs.


Produce these charts. There is no cooling trend.
Ncep data

Quoting 221. NativeSun:

Well by looking at the NCEP charts, the temp is actually stable or slightly cooling. I find the charts interesting as they are updated every 6 hrs.


Nope, warmest year record following the warmest year on record. The total opposite of global cooling. Maybe the most busted long range forecast I ever heard. I don't know what NCEP chart that is showing a slight cooling of global temps, but I challenge you to link it.
Quoting 233. Naga5000:

Ncep data




That doesn't look like global cooling to me. According to NativeSun NCEP is showing slight global cooling so I am waiting to see that link.

Also is that chart current?
Quoting 172. SecretStormNerd:

Who is this JB character?
Oh Jim Brown? He was an exceptional football player for the Cleveland Browns back in the days probably arguably the best running back in the history of the game. Won an NFL Championship as player for them as well. Link
Quoting 233. Naga5000:

Ncep data


Look at that cooling...oh wait nvm I was reading it from right to left in retrograde fashion. :P...sorry Global Warming deniers, I tried.
Quoting 237. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Look at that cooling...oh wait nvm I was reading it from right to left in retrograde fashion. :P...sorry Global Warming deniers, I tried.


If you flip it upside down, does that work? :P
Albert Einstein stated that the definition of Lunacy is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result at some point.

That some people can still say that the Earth is cooling, is Lunacy.
Simple.
Quoting 236. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Oh Jim Brown? He was an exceptional football player for the Cleveland Browns back in the days probably arguably the best running back in the history of the game. Won an NFL Championship as player for them as well. Link


Sure he's not Jackson Brown - well known singer from the 70's & 80's?
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Oddly enough, the coasts of Oman and Yemen have seen more severe impacts of major hurricanes (cyclones) than Florida over past 10-years
.
.
Quoting 233. Naga5000:

Ncep data




Nick Stokes has this to say about Ncep:

NCEP/NCAR index up 0.2°C in October


I posted earlier about a big spike in the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index in early October. That index is one that I derive by integrating NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, as explained here. The index came back from the peak, but only back to levels that would have been seen as very high in earlier months, and stayed high right to end month. So the average finished at 0.567°C, as compared to September 0.368°C. These numbers are relative to base years 1994-2013.

That makes October by far the highest monthly anomaly in the record; in fact, it beats the previous record (Jan 2007) by 0.15°C. That can be seen in the following graph of all monthly anomalies since 1994:



Relative to the 1951-80 base of GISS, October would be 1.18°C, and on the NOAA 20th Cen base, it would be 1.14°C. I wouldn't expect to see those indices rise so high, because they have been somewhat lagging the NCEP/NCAR index recently. In September, GISS was only 0.81°C. Still, there is clearly a possibility of GISS reaching 1°C, and a very strong probability of being the highest anomaly ever, in all indices.

In a related news item, Australia's October was the hottest month ever. Also very dry, where I am. We had a very unusual heat wave at the start of the month, and it continued mostly warm and sunny. It looks like a dangerous fire season coming.
Quoting 214. NativeSun:

Yes Tim, it does look like it's closer to the Nino in 83, and this could out to be a very strong Modoki type Nino.


At this point it's just wait and see........No guarantees on rainfall totals. I'm just hoping and praying for double rain and a 100' snowpack in the Sierra's that does not get hit by a Pineapple Express system or 2 and it all melts before March 30th. Timing, timing and timing are very very important! Just send Cali a bucket of cold core storms and send the Pacific Northwest 3-4 Pineapple Express to keep their rainfall totals close to normal.......This way, the most people will be best served. JMO!
Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming"





Actually the can was already open, but you're just in time for a big fat worm sandwich. How's that sound?
Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming" and that carbon dioxide levels are increasing. I don't think scientists take into account the whole photosynthesis equation. IF there was an excess amount of carbon dioxide, the trees, flowers, grass (etc.)- they would level  CO2 out and we would go back to normal levels of oxygen. I also believe that the earth goes through phases. There are times when the earth gets warmer and then there are times when the earth gets cooler. It's pretty cyclical if you ask me...





CO2 has increased 30% just in my lifetime. From 0.03% to 0.04%. Downwelling IR radiation from it has increased about as physics predicted. The value of 0.04% is higher than at any time since we became a species. Man has never experienced this level. A quarter of all of the C02 present in the atmosphere has been put there since I was born. There is evidence that photosynthesis is keeping this rate of increase from being even higher but we're burning far more carbon than is being sequestered back into organic material by plants.
(Quickly dashes in and quickly dashes back out).
Quoting 249. georgevandenberghe:



CO2 has increased 30% just in my lifetime. From 0.03% to 0.04%. Downwelling IR radiation from it has increased about as physics predicted. The value of 0.04% is higher than at any time since we became a species. Man has never experienced this level. A quarter of all of the C02 present in the atmosphere has been put there since I was born. There is evidence that photosynthesis is keeping this rate of increase from being even higher but we're burning far more carbon than is being sequestered back into organic material by plants.



If only we weren't slash and burn-ing the Amazon and the rainforests in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, along with major deforestation in a number of spots in the world. Hard for the trees to get the CO2 down when we're burning the trees.

:(
253. MahFL
Still pretty solid over land :

Quoting 251. washingtonian115:

(Quickly dashes in and quickly dashes back out).


*waves at Washi*

:-)
255. MahFL
In fact looks like it had a burst of convection after landfall :


256. MahFL
Quoting 232. Naga5000:



Produce these charts. There is no cooling trend.


Problem is Naga, some people do not know what a trend is.
257. MahFL
Quoting 229. scott39:

Where in the heck is fall!?!?


Fall is coming, it's in the NW right now.
Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming" and that carbon dioxide levels are increasing. I don't think scientists take into account the whole photosynthesis equation. IF there was an excess amount of carbon dioxide, the trees, flowers, grass (etc.)- they would level  CO2 out and we would go back to normal levels of oxygen. I also believe that the earth goes through phases. There are times when the earth gets warmer and then there are times when the earth gets cooler. It's pretty cyclical if you ask me...





The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere can be directly measured.
Quoting 257. MahFL:



Fall is coming, it's in the NW right now.


And to Soo Cal tonight and tomorrow and the Southwest on Tues,Wed and Thursday. Just opened my door here in San Digo County and a COOL westerly wind swept through the house.......rain showers forecast tonight and manana! Say hello to autumn my fellow Californians!
260. MahFL
Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

... There are times when the earth gets warmer and then there are times when the earth gets cooler. ...





Sub tropical forests once grew in the Arctic Circle, conversely 2 mile thick glaciers spread pretty far south. The main argument is though right now the rate of warming appears to be pretty fast due to the influence of humans.
Quoting 249. georgevandenberghe:



CO2 has increased 30% just in my lifetime. From 0.03% to 0.04%. Downwelling IR radiation from it has increased about as physics predicted. The value of 0.04% is higher than at any time since we became a species. Man has never experienced this level. A quarter of all of the C02 present in the atmosphere has been put there since I was born. There is evidence that photosynthesis is keeping this rate of increase from being even higher but we're burning far more carbon than is being sequestered back into organic material by plants.



Yep we are in new territory for homo sapiens. Never as a species have we lived with this high of Co2 levels.
Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming" and that carbon dioxide levels are increasing. I don't think scientists take into account the whole photosynthesis equation. IF there was an excess amount of carbon dioxide, the trees, flowers, grass (etc.)- they would level CO2 out and we would go back to normal levels of oxygen. I also believe that the earth goes through phases. There are times when the earth gets warmer and then there are times when the earth gets cooler. It's pretty cyclical if you ask me...





In this country one can believe whatever they want to. For instance, I believe all the hydrocarbon burning the last 100 years has had an effect on the planet and will continue to. To what degree it will effect the planet, I have yet been unable to determine. I do feel it will NOT be a welcome outcome. JMO!
Quoting 255. MahFL:

In fact looks like it had a burst of convection after landfall :



Hot ground temps=instability?
Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming" and that carbon dioxide levels are increasing. I don't think scientists take into account the whole photosynthesis equation. IF there was an excess amount of carbon dioxide, the trees, flowers, grass (etc.)- they would level%uFFFD CO2 out and we would go back to normal levels of oxygen. I also believe that the earth goes through phases. There are times when the earth gets warmer and then there are times when the earth gets cooler. It's pretty cyclical if you ask me...





Why don't you go to a university that has climate science and explain to the department why climate scientists are wrong?

Keep in mind though, if you do indeed decide to do that, you'll be asked to provide evidence and research to back your claims, otherwise your claims don't hold any more than John Doe who lives on the creek.
If you don't think you have any evidence to back your claims, you should consider questioning them, because the scientists you say are wrong having one heck of a heaping load of hard work, research, and evidence, in contrast.

What do you think makes more sense?
265. MahFL
Amazing, still green on the funktop :

Quoting 246. JohnLonergan:



Nick Stokes has this to say about Ncep:

NCEP/NCAR index up 0.2°C in October


I posted earlier about a big spike in the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index in early October. That index is one that I derive by integrating NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, as explained here. The index came back from the peak, but only back to levels that would have been seen as very high in earlier months, and stayed high right to end month. So the average finished at 0.567°C, as compared to September 0.368°C. These numbers are relative to base years 1994-2013.

That makes October by far the highest monthly anomaly in the record; in fact, it beats the previous record (Jan 2007) by 0.15°C. That can be seen in the following graph of all monthly anomalies since 1994:



Relative to the 1951-80 base of GISS, October would be 1.18°C, and on the NOAA 20th Cen base, it would be 1.14°C. I wouldn't expect to see those indices rise so high, because they have been somewhat lagging the NCEP/NCAR index recently. In September, GISS was only 0.81°C. Still, there is clearly a possibility of GISS reaching 1°C, and a very strong probability of being the highest anomaly ever, in all indices.

In a related news item, Australia's October was the hottest month ever. Also very dry, where I am. We had a very unusual heat wave at the start of the month, and it continued mostly warm and sunny. It looks like a dangerous fire season coming.



Thanks for the followup. I was on mobile earlier between classes and could only do so much. :)
Quoting 255. MahFL:

In fact looks like it had a burst of convection after landfall :







Interesting....
Quoting 267. TimTheWxMan:





Interesting....


Running into the mountains. Forcing air to
Quoting 255. MahFL:

In fact looks like it had a burst of convection after landfall :





Forcing from the mountains probably
I ended up getting a much needed 1.38 this evening of heavy soaking rain! This was the first 1 inch or more day I've recorded since moving back to school in mid August. It's crazy that we went 10 weeks since I've been here without a 1 inch rain event!

We had only 1.34 in the second half of August, 3.61 for September, and only 0.67 for August, all of which fell in the first 2 days of the month...

I can almost hear the plants and wild life crying a sound of relief outside...
Quoting 263. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hot ground temps=instability?


Maybe, but air stabilizes quickly over land, so if it's sustained I'm thinking it's probably forced rising over mountains that are close to the coast there. There is probably catastrophic flooding going on there right now where intense tropical down pours are producing rainfall rates of likely 2-4 inches an hour in places that average that in an entire year...

Quoting 225. NativeSun:


JB's racket is pretty simple to deduce. He's comparing 1997-8 to 1999 and seeing "ah ha, after the El Nino dissipates, global temperatures will revert to the norm." (And I can cash in on the denial side by claiming this is global cooling.)

How cool is that? :)

Quoting 229. scott39:

Where in the heck is fall!?!?
Bend, OR among other places. For the next three nights we expect overnight lows in the 20s. About a month later than grandpa remembers it.
Quoting 250. help4u:

Epa and Obama regime will not declare state of emergency over colorado river where toxic sludge was released.Navajo nation is paying a huge price from the devastation caused to there crops and way of life.Not a lot of Soros money and global warming money for this kind of environmental disaster since a democrat in office.Nothing will be done the navajo people are still waiting for the government to act on this on going disaster.Alaways follow the money to find out the political motive in today's world!Soros money makes policy along with a couple other democrat billionaires.

It's really sad when people see things through a partisan eye...and can't think logically or independently. Obama is not a communist and Bush was not a nazi. Can we get back to the weather?
Quoting 208. weathergirl2001:

Riyan Yemen with winds NE 73 gusting to 89 mph
That would be Riyan airport in Hadramaut just east of Mukalla if Google maps is correct. Not sure if the station is still updating. Web page says it last updated NaN seconds ago, "Not a Number". Edit: oops, it also says "station offline". At last report it had a total of 4.52 inches of rain.
People getting arrested for trying to make a change, but definitely warranted as it wasn't safe what they were doing.

PROTESTERS HANG FROM UPPER DECK AT MNF
Two people repelled from the upper deck at Bank of America Stadium, unfurling a banner that read "B. O. A. Dump Dominion." Dominion Cove Point is a liquefied natural gas export facility being proposed. The duo had been hanging from the upper deck before being led away by police in handcuffs.

Link
Quoting 277. bappit:

That would be Riyan airport in Hadramaut just east of Mukalla if Google maps is correct. Not sure if the station is still updating. Web page says it last updated NaN seconds ago, "Not a Number". Edit: oops, it also says "station offline". At last report it had a total of 4.52 inches of rain.


Yeah based on looking it up online, it sounds to be a reliable data source, unfortunately the station did go offline earlier as you mentioned, which is pretty common during land falling hurricanes.

Quoting 279. GTstormChaserCaleb:

People getting arrested for trying to make a change, but definitely warranted as it wasn't safe what they were doing.

PROTESTERS HANG FROM UPPER DECK AT MNF
Two people repelled from the upper deck at Bank of America Stadium, unfurling a banner that read "B. O. A. Dump Dominion." Dominion Cove Point is a liquefied natural gas export facility being proposed. The duo had been hanging from the upper deck before being led away by police in handcuffs.

Link
"Protesters hang" used to have a different meaning. :)
Quoting 278. wxmannyc:

Some photos of Al Mukalla landfall damage posted today -- appear to be legitimate.





and if so, all but one, before nightfall when it came ashore :/
If I eat one carrot, I'll be ok. If I eat 100 carrots, I might die. Carbon is beneficial, but too much of it, is not.
More Al Mukalla video here. Just posted, so probably recorded post-landfall.

A 3-minute journey through the last 250 years of our history, from the start of the Industrial Revolution to the Rio+20 Summit.

The film charts the growth of humanity into a global force on an equivalent scale to major geological processes.







Here in Fallon, at this point, it's been raining solid (some lighter, some ordinary) for over 24 hours. About 2/3 of an inch or more.

The goats are annoyed. The cats are annoyed. The dogs aren't sure. The cattle don't care 'long as I feed them their yummies. The pigs are going back and forth between YAY WET DIRT TO PLAY IN and SCREW THIS I'M GOING TO CURL UP WITH MY BUDDIES UNDER COVER. The two sows who farrowed within a few days of each other have their own pen, and are sleeping in their little house practically belly to belly, so the babies can be nice and warm and have twice the teats to fight over.

One piglet was half the size of the others, looked almost preemie and I figured, let's get that one out of the bunch and try bottle-feeding, she wasn't gonna win against eight others of varying size and age. She lasted a couple days but just wasn't developed enough. However, she did live long enough, and her fostering spot gave us a good shot of cuteness that outlives her presence.

So with all the badness in the weather getting you down, have a seat, pour yourself a mug of hot cocoa, and hum to yourself "One of these things is not like the others..."

Quoting 235. wartsttocs:



That doesn't look like global cooling to me. According to NativeSun NCEP is showing slight global cooling so I am waiting to see that link.

Also is that chart current?


No, here is the up to date data:



243. Newswatcher
1:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2015
I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming" and that carbon dioxide levels are increasing....

They come in all shapes and sizes.

I'm training a new co-worker, she just finished her Masters. Got published, still working on her PhD, she's a cutie. She thinks scientists are liars, and laughed when I mentioned the Cretaceous Period. "Your, uh, Crustaceous period, or whatever it is- how do we know it even happened?"

Bless their hearts....

Quoting 289. aquak9:

243. Newswatcher
1:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2015
I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming" and that carbon dioxide levels are increasing....

They come in all shapes and sizes.

I'm training a new co-worker, she just finished her Masters. Got published, still working on her PhD, she's a cutie. She thinks scientists are liars, and laughed when I mentioned the Cretaceous Period. "Your, uh, Crustaceous period, or whatever it is- how do we know it even happened?"

Bless their hearts....
Well, I guess if we are foolish enough to have Doctors of Divinity, we're durn sure fool enough to have Masters of the Moronosphere.
Overland statement advisory from IMD... issued at 6:00 AM UTC (11:30AM IST)..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
8:30 AM IST November 3 2015
=============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala over Gulf of Aden and adjoining west central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards, crossed Yemen coast to the southwest of Riyan, near 14.1N 48.6E during 0100-0200 AM UTC as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum winds of 65-70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The system then continued to move west northwestwards, weakened into a severe cyclonic storm and now lays centered over Yemen near 14.2N 48.4E, about 100 km southwest of Riyan (Yemen) (41443).

It would move west northwestwards and weaken further rapidly into a cyclonic storm and subsequently into a depression during next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 988 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
================
9 HRS 15.1N 47.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS 16.4N 45.2E - Low Pressure Area

Associated broke low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over area between 12.0N to 18.5N and 46.0E to 51.0E and central Yemen. The convection continues disorganization indicating weakening trend of the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -75C. Due to rugged terrain, dry air intrusion, increase in vertical wind shear and decrease in divergence, the system would weaken rapidly into a depression during next 12 hours.
Flooding in Mukalla

Youtube video
Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

I don't think scientists take into account the whole photosynthesis equation. IF there was an excess amount of carbon dioxide, the trees, flowers, grass (etc.)- they would level CO2 out and we would go back to normal levels of oxygen.

Considering that we are burning in a few centuries (in the form of coal and oil) carbon that took photosynthesis millions of years to accumulate do you really think photosynthesis will work orders of magnitude faster than it did the first time around?
Quoting 255. MahFL:

In fact looks like it had a burst of convection after landfall :




Well I suppose if it keeps going like this, then there is always the Red Sea next and after that the Mediterranean!
Amazing strength in this system, not only to get to where it is presently but to keep going after landfall.
There will be an awful lot of flood stories coming out of this later on but with the hostilities in the area not a lot of information may manage to get out of the country, maybe in years to come we will be able to see what happens when a cyclone moves over a proper desert, not just an arid area.

Bad news about the European storms in Spain today as at least 4 old people in a residents home were drowned during flooding up in the north near Barcelona.
Back to sunshine in the south tomorrow but the coasts have take a beating with all these storms.
Quoting 294. riverat544:

Quoting 243. Newswatcher:

I don't think scientists take into account the whole photosynthesis equation. IF there was an excess amount of carbon dioxide, the trees, flowers, grass (etc.)- they would level CO2 out and we would go back to normal levels of oxygen.

Considering that we are burning in a few centuries (in the form of coal and oil) carbon that took photosynthesis millions of years to accumulate do you really think photosynthesis will work orders of magnitude faster than it did the first time around?
And considering all the trees that are currently burning in Indonesia, as well as other logging operations ongoing in other countries and those of the past (Haiti has cut down virtually all of it's trees, which causes them to flood out every time a hurricane says hello) causing a severe lowering of the tree numbers, this would also work against the photosynthesis leveling as well.

And if I remember correctly, the CO2 absorbed by the plants will eventually end up in the atmosphere anyway.
Here is nasa.gov's take on this: "In all four processes", in relation to the carbon cycle, "the carbon dioxide released in the reaction usually ends up in the atmosphere."
Source for above quoted material: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCy cle/page3.php

Why is it when I'm posting a link, it forces a space in the hyperlink, making it so it doesn't work?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
11:30 AM IST November 3 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala over Yemen moved westwards with a speed of 20 km/h,weakened into a cyclonic storm, and now lays centered near 14.2N 47.8E about 100 km east southeast of Ataq (Yemen) (41437).

It would move west northwestwards and weaken further into a depression during next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa. Sea condition near Yemen coast is high.

Associated broke low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lie over Yemen and adjoining Gulf of Aden between 12.0 to 17.5 and 44.5 to 51.5. The convection shows shear pattern indicating further weakening of the system. The depth of convection has significantly decreased. Minimum cloud top temperature is -62C. Due to rugged terrain, dry air intrusion, increase in vertical wind shear, and decrease in divergence, the system weakened rapidly into a cyclonic storm and will further weaken into a depression during next 12 hours.
Quoting 293. yonzabam:

Flooding in Mukalla

Youtube video

Another compilation of those floods in Mukalla:



A lot of photos on twitter show similar views:




Source.


Source.


Source. One of many from Hadramout Valley.

10 pictures of #Chapala cyclone damage in Hadramout, east #Yemen
http://www.al-tagheer.com/news83200.html




Chapala's landfall.


Source.


Looks like NASA's Terra satellite caught landfall.


Amateur footage of Yemen flooding as cyclone hits
BBC, 1 hour ago
A rare tropical cyclone is bearing down on the Yemeni mainland bringing hurricane-force winds, heavy rain and powerful waves.
Photos and videos posted online showed water pouring through the streets in costal cities.
Ahmed Al Junaidi shot this video in Shihr.
Quoting 279. GTstormChaserCaleb:

People getting arrested for trying to make a change, but definitely warranted as it wasn't safe what they were doing.

PROTESTERS HANG FROM UPPER DECK AT MNF
Two people repelled from the upper deck at Bank of America Stadium, unfurling a banner that read "B. O. A. Dump Dominion." Dominion Cove Point is a liquefied natural gas export facility being proposed. The duo had been hanging from the upper deck before being led away by police in handcuffs.

Link


I'M PRETTY SURE THOSE TWO RAPPELLED FROM THE UPPER DECK
Rare cyclone batters Yemen, thousands flee homes
Source: Reuters - Tue, 3 Nov 2015 09:34 GMT
CAIRO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - A cyclone with hurricane-force winds made landfall on Yemen's Arabian Sea coast on Tuesday, flooding the country's fifth-largest city Mukalla and sending thousands of people fleeing for shelter.
Officials and meteorologists say the storm is the most intense in decades in the arid country, whose storm response is hampered by poverty and a raging civil war.
In the provincial capital Mukalla, whose 300,000 people are largely ruled by al Qaeda fighters since the army withdrew in April, water submerged cars on city streets and caused dozens of families to flee to a hospital for fear of rock slides.
Residents said the seafront promenade and many homes had been destroyed by the cyclone, called Chapala, and officials in the dry hinterland province of Shabwa said about 6,000 people had moved to higher ground.
"The wind knocked out power completely in the city and people were terrified. Some residents had to leave their homes and escape to higher areas where flooding was less; it was a difficult night but it passed off peacefully," said Sabri Saleem, who lives in Mukalla.
There were no initial reports of injuries. ...

More see link above.
Scandinavia is enduring--or perhaps enjoying--yet another "heat" wave today, with Finland the winner (as noted in the current blog entry). Parts of southern Finland are seeing highs in the mid-50s, which doesn't sound all that warm compared to, say, Florida, until you consider that the sun shines just over an hour or so each day there at this time of year, and high temperatures are normally in the 30s (and it's only that warm due to the Gulf Stream). There's no full tally yet that I can find, but a number of all-time November temperature records have been broken, perhaps even another national one.
Quoting 234. wartsttocs:



Nope, warmest year record following the warmest year on record. The total opposite of global cooling. Maybe the most busted long range forecast I ever heard. I don't know what NCEP chart that is showing a slight cooling of global temps, but I challenge you to link it.
Hi Wart, look over on WB's professional site, you will find it their. I don't post links from that site.
Quoting 303. Neapolitan:

Scandinavia is enduring--or perhaps enjoying--yet another "heat" wave today, with Finland the winner (as noted in the current blog entry). Parts of southern Finland are seeing highs in the mid-50s, which doesn't sound all that warm compared to, say, Florida, until you consider that the sun shines just over an hour or so each day there at this time of year, and high temperatures are normally in the 30s (and it's only that warm due to the Gulf Stream). There's no full tally yet that I can find, but a number of all-time November temperature records have been broken, perhaps even another national one.


Current temperature anomalies.
Quoting 303. Neapolitan:

Scandinavia is enduring--or perhaps enjoying--yet another "heat" wave today, with Finland the winner (as noted in the current blog entry). Parts of southern Finland are seeing highs in the mid-50s, which doesn't sound all that warm compared to, say, Florida, until you consider that the sun shines just over an hour or so each day there at this time of year, and high temperatures are normally in the 30s (and it's only that warm due to the Gulf Stream). There's no full tally yet that I can find, but a number of all-time November temperature records have been broken, perhaps even another national one.


The official sunrise time for Helsinki for 11/3 is 7:47 AM, and the official sunset time for the same city in Finland is 4:20 PM. That results in a day length of over 8 hours. Can you clarify what you meant by "the sun shines just over an hour or so each day there at this time of year"?
With all the warmth in the south right now from this dominating ridge of high pressure producing record breaking heat, I would not be surprised if we get a homegrown tropical system before the season shuts down. The SSTs are well above normal in the Northwest Caribbean right now running close to 90 degrees.
Yikes. The youtube videos of Chapala show some violent flooding in Yemen.
313. MahFL
Quoting 303. Neapolitan:

until you consider that the sun shines just over an hour or so each day there at this time of year, and high temperatures are normally in the 30s (and it's only that warm due to the Gulf Stream).


8 hours 30 mins actually. The ave temp is 40 not 30's.
Quoting 307. tampabaymatt:



The official sunrise time for Helsinki for 11/3 is 7:47 AM, and the official sunset time for the same city in Finland is 4:20 PM. That results in a day length of over 8 hours. Can you clarify what you meant by "the sun shines just over an hour or so each day there at this time of year"?

That national record bust again. Don't know by how much yet but it looks like a place made it to 14° C.
8:18am and its 83 with a 78 dewpoint. Heat Index is 91. Some locations already nearing record highs for the date and its not even 8:30am.

Eric Blake Retweeted
Jonathan Erdman ‏@wxjerdman 2h2 hours ago
November 90s Monday: Jacksonville NAS (92), Orlando (91), Melbourne (90), Daytona Beach (90). Hot into next week.
Hi all, I was over on another website and JB brought up an article from Scripps Enso forecast, very interesting in the least, for all you Nino folks.
Good Morning. Chapala broke up pretty quickly between yesterday and this morning and not much rain in this morning's WV shot. Hopefully this will keep flash flooding and mudslides down to a minimum inland:



Looks like a Super?, next summer, should make for a very interesting hurricane season if it verifies.
If this occurs as the Euro suggest then we will see a huge SOI crash next week along with a strong WWB. This all means that El-Nino is still intensifying.

Here is the recent heat record broken in Tallahassee from this morning's discussion:

A few records have been set recently that are quite notable for the
Tallahassee area. The 00z KTAE sounding measured a precipitable
water value of 2.23 inches, which is the 3rd highest on record for
Tallahassee for the month of November. The two higher values
occurred during Hurricane Kate back in 1985, so this current airmass
is the moistest on record for November for a non-tropical system. In
addition, an all time record high for the month of November was
broken at Tallahassee on Monday with 89 degrees. Ironically, the
previous record of 88 degrees had just occurred on Sunday, as well
as 3 other times in 1921, 1929, and 1969. This is about 12 degrees
above average for this time of year.
In addition, Tallahassee tied
an all time record high minimum temperature for the month of
November at 75 degrees on both Sunday and Monday. The average low
for this time of year is 51 degrees, so this was 24 degrees above
average. Ironically, the average high temperature is just two
degrees warmer at 77 degrees.


Quoting 320. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the recent heat record broken in Tallahassee from this morning's discussion:

A few records have been set recently that are quite notable for the
Tallahassee area. The 00z KTAE sounding measured a precipitable
water value of 2.23 inches, which is the 3rd highest on record for
Tallahassee for the month of November. The two higher values
occurred during Hurricane Kate back in 1985, so this current airmass
is the moistest on record for November for a non-tropical system. In
addition, an all time record high for the month of November was
broken at Tallahassee on Monday with 89 degrees. Ironically, the
previous record of 88 degrees had just occurred on Sunday, as well
as 3 other times in 1921, 1929, and 1969. This is about 12 degrees
above average for this time of year.
In addition, Tallahassee tied
an all time record high minimum temperature for the month of
November at 75 degrees on both Sunday and Monday. The average low
for this time of year is 51 degrees, so this was 24 degrees above
average. Ironically, the average high temperature is just two
degrees warmer at 77 degrees.





Lows of 79 occurred up down the coast of East Central Florida last night. Warmest nighttime lows ever recorded for any date in November.
00z CMC is at it again.


06z GFS & 00z NAVGEM show something trying to develop but keep it away from land.

06zGFS


00zNAVGEM
Quoting 249. georgevandenberghe:



CO2 has increased 30% just in my lifetime. From 0.03% to 0.04%. Downwelling IR radiation from it has increased about as physics predicted. The value of 0.04% is higher than at any time since we became a species. Man has never experienced this level. A quarter of all of the C02 present in the atmosphere has been put there since I was born. There is evidence that photosynthesis is keeping this rate of increase from being even higher but we're burning far more carbon than is being sequestered back into organic material by plants.



It seems that if someone doesn't understand something these days that's enough reason to disbelieve reality. :P

Surface carbon sequestration is very slow. Plants grow and take carbon in. Plants die and decompose putting the carbon back. Hence the "carbon cycle".

Contrary to the magical thinking of deniers, more CO2 != more plants. If a region has already reached maximum capacity for growth, more CO2 won't magically make more room for plants. If a region is not suitable to support plant growth, more CO2 won't magically make the area support plant life. Worse, as humans have spread they have severely impacted (if not outright destroyed) large areas of forests and the environment for farming, cities, etc. which negatively impact the ability for the environment to take on more carbon.

Add to this that we have dug up and reintroduced carbon back into the carbon cycle that took MILLIONS OF YEARS to sequester out of it and it really isn't hard to figure out what the result is going to be.

Or to put it simply, the carbon cycle is a big bucket filled with water. It has a spigot that let's out water at the same rate as water is added. Humans have suddenly come along and have done two things:

1. !%&^@ the spigot up so it can't let as much water out and
2. Increased the rate water is being added to the bucket

And then physics happens. CO2 is responsive to long wave IR radiation. Indeed, if you've ever seen a CO2 cutting laser in action, then you've seen proof of this. But being responsive in this region means that it can trap heat (a.k.a a greenhouse gas). And since our planet is 75% covered by a giant heat sink (the oceans), the extra heat being trapped accumulates.

The Earth receives a certain amount of incoming energy from the sun, an the Earth emits a certain amount back out into space. When the planet is at a thermal equilibrium, we have a stable climate. When the planet is not at a thermal equilibrium, the climate changes until a new equilibrium is established.

Once again, we have a bucket with a spigot. Adding additional greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is the equivalent of tightening the spigot, reducing how much leaves the bucket. But the same amount is still pouring into the bucket. Again, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what's going to happen.

But figuring out that a planet will warmer with an increase in greenhouse gases is the easy part. Scientists have modeled and predicted this since the late 19th century. The hard part is figuring out how the climate change in response and how that will impact human civilization.

Regardless of what we do, we can't stop thermodynamics. The planet will reach a new thermal equilibrium one way or another. Whether we're still around when it does is another matter.
Quoting 314. cRRKampen:


That national record bust again. Don't know by how much yet but it looks like a place made it to 14° C.


Source with more.
Quoting 327. LargoFl:




GFS shows the system doing a clockwise loop south of Bermuda from Nov 10- 14, then a front kicks it out to sea.
00z Euro shows "something" over/near the northwestern coast of Haiti on Nov 11th.
Quoting 325. barbamz:

Revealing and sad twitter-feed on Yemen to follow:

Jane Novak @JNovak_Yemen: Yemen observer and analyst, advocate for Yemeni journalists and other beleaguered souls since 2004.

A 'benign' genocide, performed by our 'friend' Saudi so we're helping and not reporting.
We'll just let them rot.
Better make some extra fences, Europe, to keep the new wave of refugees out.
Quoting 328. fmbill:



GFS shows the system doing a clockwise loop south of Bermuda from Nov 10- 14, then a front kicks it out to sea.
20 days ago Largo posted a 384 hour GFS storm for Miami, this one is 10 days away, is this productive?
The area near 10n40w is what the models are looking at developing eventually.
Quoting 331. jjjerry1:

20 days ago Largo posted a 384 hour GFS storm for Miami, this one is 10 days away, is this productive?

Probably not. But it's about the only tropical weather potential in the Atlantic basin right now. And since it's a tropical weather blog...
I have definitely experienced this. I am a science major and I am in class with obviously other science majors, that also do not believe in climate change. I really do not understand.
Quoting 289. aquak9:

243. Newswatcher
1:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2015
I really hate to open this can of worms, but I don't believe in "Global Warming" and that carbon dioxide levels are increasing....

They come in all shapes and sizes.

I'm training a new co-worker, she just finished her Masters. Got published, still working on her PhD, she's a cutie. She thinks scientists are liars, and laughed when I mentioned the Cretaceous Period. "Your, uh, Crustaceous period, or whatever it is- how do we know it even happened?"

Bless their hearts....
no wonder we cant cool down.look at those water temps whew..................
Quoting 328. fmbill:



GFS shows the system doing a clockwise loop south of Bermuda from Nov 10- 14, then a front kicks it out to sea.
yes this time of year its hard for a tropical something in the atlantic to get to our east coast...November they all go out to sea...we keep an eye on any low in the gulf,especially a Low on the tail end of a front in the gulf.
Quoting 333. fmbill:


Probably not. But it's about the only tropical weather potential in the Atlantic basin right now. And since it's a tropical weather blog...

Actually, it's a blog about whatever Jeff Masters or Bob Henson choose to write about, which is not always just about tropical weather. Some commenters on this blog occasionally complain about non-tropical topics, which is a bit like a guest in someone's home taking it upon himself to rearrange the furniture.
Quoting 313. MahFL:



8 hours 30 mins actually. The ave temp is 40 not 30's.
Quoting 307. tampabaymatt:



The official sunrise time for Helsinki for 11/3 is 7:47 AM, and the official sunset time for the same city in Finland is 4:20 PM. That results in a day length of over 8 hours. Can you clarify what you meant by "the sun shines just over an hour or so each day there at this time of year"?
Certainly.

In the south of Finland, average direct sunlight during November (ie, "this time of year") is under an hour. Sunrise and sunset are separated by hours, yes; the minimum time between rise and set for November is 6:07. But climatologically-speaking"sunshine hours" are not the same as daylight hours. For one thing, even at meridian, the sun is but a few degrees above the horizon (in, even in early November, it barely makes it to 15 degrees), meaning that sunlight is anything but intense. And the dreary weather there in November takes even more away sunshine away, leaving that under-an-hour average of which I wrote.

Re; Helsinki: you both mentioned that city by name, though I never did. It's true that Helsinki's average high for the day is about 40. But locations away from the city and the southern coast average only the 30s this time of year.

Anyway, thanks for asking. That's how you guys learn!
wow euro has a powerful storm up around the great lakes in about 10 days...........
This is a contradictory statement.
Quoting 337. ACSeattle:


Actually, it's a blog about whatever Jeff Masters or Bob Henson choose to write about, which is not always just about tropical weather. Some commenters on this blog occasionally complain about non-tropical topics, which is a bit like a guest in someone's home taking it upon himself to rearrange the furniture.
Quoting 338. Neapolitan:

Certainly.

In the south of Finland, average direct sunlight during November (ie, "this time of year")
is under an hour. Sunrise and sunset are separated by hours, yes; the minimum time between rise and set for November is 6:07. But climatologically-speaking"sunshine hours" are not the same as daylight hours. For one thing, even at meridian, the sun is but a few degrees above the horizon (in, even in early November, it barely makes it to 15 degrees), meaning that sunlight is anything but intense. And the dreary weather there in November takes even more away sunshine away, leaving that under-an-hour average of which I wrote.

Re; Helsinki: you both mentioned that city by name, though I never did. It's true that Helsinki's average high for the day is about 40. But locations away from the city and the southern coast average only the 30s this time of year.

Anyway, thanks for asking. That's how you guys learn!


the further north the less direct sunlight not the south.....

A quarter of Finland’s surface – Lapland – is over the Arctic Polar Circle. Over that imaginary line, at least a day per year the sun doesn’t set and at least a day per year the sun doesn’t rise. In rest of Finland, south of that line, it is not that extreme, but there are pretty steep changes in the hours of daylight during the different months and seasons as well. - See more at: http://en.biginfinland.com/hours-of-daylight-finla nd-lapland/#sthash.FJ7xGgVp.dpuf
you're also "close" on that hour a day time frame...but you're off a month....


Looks like another storm is trying to form behind Chapala.
Quoting 342. ricderr:

you're also "close" on that hour a day time frame...but you're off a month....
No, Ric. I'm not. If you go back and carefully re-read both my original comment and my response, you'll see that my statements were spot-on.

Again: "daylight hours: is an astronomical term denoting the amount of time between local sunrise and sunset. "Average sunshine hours" (or "sunlight hours") is a climatological term denoting the amount of "intense" sunlight everyday at a given location, which is itself as product of those local daylight hours, along with the sun's maximum altitude above the horizon and the average weather (cloudy, rainy, snowy, etc.). So, again: Helsinki experiences a November average sunshine time of just under one hour.

I hope that's clear.
Quoting 338. Neapolitan:

Certainly.

In the south of Finland, average direct sunlight during November (ie, "this time of year") is under an hour. Sunrise and sunset are separated by hours, yes; the minimum time between rise and set for November is 6:07. But climatologically-speaking"sunshine hours" are not the same as daylight hours. For one thing, even at meridian, the sun is but a few degrees above the horizon (in, even in early November, it barely makes it to 15 degrees), meaning that sunlight is anything but intense. And the dreary weather there in November takes even more away sunshine away, leaving that under-an-hour average of which I wrote.

Re; Helsinki: you both mentioned that city by name, though I never did. It's true that Helsinki's average high for the day is about 40. But locations away from the city and the southern coast average only the 30s this time of year.

Anyway, thanks for asking. That's how you guys learn!


So, by one hour of sunlight, you meant one hour of intense sunlight? If you look at the official sunrise and sunset times for Helsinki (the capital city of Finland), it shows much more than one hour of sunlight per day.

In any event, since you seem incapable of having a discussion with anyone on here without sneaking in some sort of passive aggressive, belittling comment, no need to engage with this further. I was really just looking to understand what you meant by that, not be insulted.
Quoting 343. Sandy82579:

Bad news for the climate guys. NASA says Antartica sea ice actually growing:

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/11/02/nasa-says-a ntarctic-ice-may-be-growing-after-all/21257391/?nc id=txtlnkusaolp00000058&intcmp=hplnws

Oops.

If that holds up then 'oops', elsewhere ice must be melting really damned fast.

I do register a smirk there. A laugh for Chapala, a smiley for the dead of Tacloban.
Quoting 343. Sandy82579:

Bad news for the climate guys. NASA says Antartica sea ice actually growing:

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/11/02/nasa-says-a ntarctic-ice-may-be-growing-after-all/21257391/?nc id=txtlnkusaolp00000058&intcmp=hplnws

Oops.
Even worse news for those who don't keep up with the news.

Oh, also this just in.

Oops.
The noted observations as to the current heat records are not simply relegated to this Blog or the sources that we routinely discuss and cite. Was taking my 14 year old to school this morning, and she noted the heat outside, fog on the car windows, and the air on in the car. Turned around and asked me at a red light whether all this heat in November was related to global warming............................I said "yes"....................................
Quoting 343. Sandy82579:

Bad news for the climate guys. NASA says Antartica sea ice actually growing:

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/11/02/nasa-says-a ntarctic-ice-may-be-growing-after-all/21257391/?nc id=txtlnkusaolp00000058&intcmp=hplnws

Oops.


It's been growing for awhile, that isn't new news. The current thought is that wind patterns have changed in the last decade and has been blowing more ice off the continent than usual. It's very cold down there, when the wind carries ice to the north, the exposed areas freeze over eventually aka "ice growth".
Quoting 343. Sandy82579:

Bad news for the climate guys. NASA says Antartica sea ice actually growing:

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/11/02/nasa-says-a ntarctic-ice-may-be-growing-after-all/21257391/?nc id=txtlnkusaolp00000058&intcmp=hplnws

Oops.

This post is even worse than I thought at first. Why do climate revisionists always mix up stuff so badly and never read??
Sea ice, bla bla, ice cap, bladiblah... Better delete that one, oops?
i would think these folks would be happy for the rain.....
Quoting 349. weathermanwannabe:

The noted observations as to the current heat records are not simply relegated to this Blog or the sources that we routinely discuss and cite. Was taking my 14 year old to school this morning, and she noted the heat outside, fog on the car windows, and the air on in the car. Turned around and asked me at a red light whether all this heat in November was related to global warming............................I said "yes"....................................
Why
nothing will develop in the atlantic until next year........

Quoting 332. fmbill:

The area near 10n40w is what the models are looking at developing eventually.

Quoting 350. pipelines:



It's been growing for awhile, that isn't new news. The current thought is that wind patterns have changed in the last decade and has been blowing more ice off the continent than usual. It's very cold down there, when the wind carries ice to the north, the exposed areas freeze over eventually aka "ice growth".

...?
No. It doesn't have ice growth because winds are cold. Ice sheets such as Antarctica have ice growth when the rate of ice accumulation (snowfall) exceeds the amount of ice ablation/loss (such as through glacier calving).

I knew, just knew, that this study was going to be completely misinterpreted by people, especially those that won't even take the effort to read it. I couldn't even get past the first page on here without seeing it. Unfortunately, media interpretation is making that easier than it should be.
In layman's terms, Sunshine duration is a measure of "bright sunshine" duration. For instance, Seattle would have a lower sunshine duration than Spokane even thought they have the same daylight lengths.

Helsinki has an average sunshine duration of 1.2 hours in November, this time of year it's probably around 1.5 hours.
Quoting 353. NativeSun:

Why


Because they cover the issue in their science books (in terms of actual science based on data), as a Floridian all of my life (both in South Florida and North Florida) have seen Winters become milder and milder over the past 40 years, the data and science coming in from around the world for the past few decades, and I like to share my personal beliefs with my Children when they ask.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
17:30 PM IST November 3 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Chapala over Yemen moved westwards with a speed of 10 km/h during past 6 hours, and now lays centered near 14.2N 47.3E, about 60 km south southeast of Ataq (Yemen) (41437).

It would move west northwestwards and weaken further into a depression during next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 998 hPa. Sea condition along and off Yemen coast is very rough to high.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lie over the area between 11.0N to 18.5N and 44.5E to 51.5E. The convection shows shear pattern indicating further weakening of the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -57C. Due to rugged terrain, dry air intrusion, increase in vertical wind shear and decrease in upper level divergence, the cyclonic storm will further weaken into a depression during next 12 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.7N 45.9E - 25 knots (Depression)
Quoting 354. 19N81W:

nothing will develop in the atlantic until next year........




You are probably right. I never said anything would develop. I only pointed out that some of the models seem to indicate something might develop. Tropical blog, tropical conversation.
Another kelvin wave.
Quoting 355. ScottLincoln:


...?

No. It doesn't have ice growth because winds are cold. Ice sheets such as Antarctica have ice growth when the rate of ice accumulation (snowfall) exceeds the amount of ice ablation/loss (such as through glacier calving).


What? Where in the world do you get your information? Antarctica is essentially a frozen desert, it receives very little snow. What is growing is Antarctica sea ice EXTENT, aka areas of ocean that were once open now have ice on it. Seawater freezes in the upper 20s, exposed seawater will freeze at temperatures commonly seen around Antarctica. Winds in Antarctica can be very strong and will easily blow sea ice around, opening up areas of ocean that will eventually freeze over.
Quoting 353. NativeSun:

Why

Some of us don't take to lying to our children when they ask a simple question.
it wasnt a knock....I would mind something to spin up we really need more rain before things shut down completely..
on a similar note do the models use historical data when they calculate their outputs or all current info?

Quoting 359. fmbill:



You are probably right. I never said anything would develop. I only pointed out that some of the models seem to indicate something might develop. Tropical blog, tropical conversation.
Quoting 337. ACSeattle:


Actually, it's a blog about whatever Jeff Masters or Bob Henson choose to write about, which is not always just about tropical weather. Some commenters on this blog occasionally complain about non-tropical topics, which is a bit like a guest in someone's home taking it upon himself to rearrange the furniture.


LOL! Well said!
95A..

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 3 2015
===========================

Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over east central Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast, a low pressure area has formed over east central & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km above mean sea level.

The system would become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.
I was flipping through T.V stations yesterday night and skim by one.I turned back quickly and the guy was saying a government agency is at work so that is why we have not had any major hurricanes strike us yet.I couldn't stop laughing.
Quoting 361. pipelines:



What? Where in the world do you get your information? Antarctica is essentially a frozen desert, it receives very little snow. What is growing is Antarctica sea ice EXTENT,

The paper from NASA scientists being discussed was not about sea ice extent, it was land ice volume.*
[EDITED TO NOTE: I just realized that your post broke the mold and was actually about sea ice. With all the commenting about land ice I didn't realize yours was different, and I apologize for that misunderstanding. My comment applies to land ice and obviously sea ice is a different process.]

My description of glacier/ice cap processes was fundamentally correct. Change in storage is equal to the accumulation minus the loss. So snowfall ice volume minus ablation/melting ice volume. Desert or not, that doesn't change the underlying science behind how the ice sheet works. Maybe this helps provide some context into just how long it takes to accumulate that much ice on the continent.

Here's an article to help you:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understandi ng-climate/climate-change-glacier-mass-balance

*On related note, that paper on ice volume actually doesn't mean quite what people think it means - it was over a relatively short period in time and we have other studies that cover longer, more climate-relevant durations.
Quoting 343. Sandy82579:

Bad news for the climate guys. NASA says Antartica sea ice actually growing:

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/11/02/nasa-says-a ntarctic-ice-may-be-growing-after-all/21257391/?nc id=txtlnkusaolp00000058&intcmp=hplnws

Oops.

I wonder why that was even published, given that the paper's analysis ends in 2008 and is contradicted by much more recent satellite data. Denialists will make use of the paper, but I don't expect it will contribute much to the body of science.
369. bwi
Hat tip to corpflunky at http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/11/02/1443541/- If-the-media-reported-Sports-like-they-do-Climate- Change#

If the Media Reported Sports Like They Do Climate Change

Controversy swirls around claims that the Kansas City Royals defeated the New York Mets last night to win the World Series. Despite repeated reports from Major League Baseball, many internationally recognized celebrities either claimed no knowledge of the game or said that the game was not an actual world series.

23 year old international Bolshoi ballet prodigy, Olga Smirnova, currently in New York while starring in George Balanchine's "Jewels", when asked by reporters about the game replied "sorry, I know nothing of World Series" before getting into a car outside her hotel. Several of her fans also expressed complete disinterest. 16 year old Evangeline Michaud, visiting from Quebec, said "I love Olga and ballet, and I hate baseball".

27 year old Miss Universe 2013, Gabriela Isler, also a popular local TV host, explained that in her native Venezuela football is more popular than baseball. Reached early in the morning by phone in Maracay, she said, "I like baseball, but I thought the World Classic was won by the Dominican Republic back in March. Are you really still playing baseball in the US?"

When confronted with these reports of dismissal and disbelief of the World Series from extremely attractive, popular and world renowned women, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred made the following statement.

"MLB has great respect for both these talented women, but the truth is that after a long and exciting season the Kansas City Royals did win in overtime against the New York Mets by 7-2 last night at Citi Field in front of 45,000 fans and that the game was broadcast live across the country."

In order to get independent confirmation of the commissioner's claims, we conducted a quick survey of Californians at 3 am last night, but we failed to find any people who had actually seen the game. 60% refused to answer any questions at all, 20% claimed not to have heard anything about it, and the other person didn't answer.

Asked to respond to our survey results, Mr Manfred said, "I don't know where you are getting your information that the game didn't happen, but I'm telling you that it did. It's ridiculous to suggest that it didn't happen and that we just made it up."

Later, at a MLB news conference, our reporter pressed the commissioner to explain reports that Takaaki Kajita, the 2015 Nobel Prize winner in Physics and long time Yomiuri Giants fan, had actually been to game 5 last Thursday between the SoftBank Hawks and the Yakult Swallows. I asked the commissioner "are you saying that Dr Kajita is wrong and that you are smarter than he is?"

Evidently frustrated, Mr Manfred responded.

"I can't believe you are even asking these questions. Look, there are many different leagues around the world, but MLB has been hosting the World Series in the US and Canada for over 100 years. All our schedules and results are published and available online at MLB.com. Millions of fans watch our games regularly. We have several of the players here today. How can you deny that the game was real?"

But his explanation did not convince everyone. Even die-hard baseball fans complained that game 1 did not begin as scheduled. MLB repeated earlier claims that there were "technical difficulties with the broadcast".

New York Mets fan and Brooklyn resident, Nathan Coney, expressed complete disbelief that the season was over. "How can this have happened? I just don't believe it. It can't be. I don't care what anybody says, there's no way." Asked whether they should replay the disputed game, Mr Coney said he would support that absolutely. "That's the only way to be sure" he said.

Jiro Rashomon, assistant groundskeeper at Citi Field, said that he was there before and after the game but did not actually see the game. "You can observe a lot just by watching, and what you see at a game depends on where you sit."

NBA commissioner, Adam Silver, said that he also did not watch the game and that more and more people watch basketball now than baseball. Mr Manfred countered that Mr Silver was simply interested in growing his fan base. In a heated argument with this reporter, Mr Manfred became quite animated in expressing his view that the game did in fact take place.

"You can't just deny that baseball is still very popular and that millions watched the game. That's a fact. People like Mr Silver make more money when people don't know the basic facts about our sport, so of course they're going to tell you they didn't see it. But just because everyone doesn't follow it carefully, doesn't mean that baseball isn't real. You're creating confusion and spreading false controversy about facts instead of doing your job and telling people about what happened at the game."

Mr Manfred's views aside, it's clear that it would require effort to describe what happened at this and other sporting events and that not everyone is interested. So we will continue to cover the controversy about whether or not the World Series or any other sporting events actually occur.
Experts dispute NASA study showing Antarctic ice gain

Data results contradict 13 years of NASA measurements showing net ice loss on southern continent

A number of experts are disputing the conclusion of a recent NASA study that says more ice is accumulating in Antarctica than is being lost due to climate change. They argue that the study contradicts more than a decade of other scientific measurements — including previous NASA studies.

[...]

“There is no quality data to support the claims made by the authors of [ice] growth in East Antarctica,” said Eric Rignot, principle scientist for the Radar Science and Engineering Section at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

[...]

Complete article >>

--------------

See also:

Antarctic ice - growing or shrinking? NASA vs Princeton and Leeds etc



Fig.2. Ice mass changes (mass corrected using the GIA model by Ivins et al., 2013) in gigatons (Gt). The black lines are monthly GRACE observations with 2σ error bars determined from our analysis. The solid blue lines are the best-fit quadratic curves. Source: Harig and Simons 2015
Toasty!

Thats normal.......lets all be happy its insanely abnormally hot..........again

Quoting 371. capeflorida:

Toasty!


Easier to get some official news from Somalia than from Yemen nowadays:
Somalia: Cyclone Leaves Thousands Homeless in Somalia
3 November 2015
A cyclone has hit the semi-autonomous Somali region of Puntland, leaving thousands of people homeless, officials said on Tuesday.
Cyclone Chapala generated large waves that hit the coast, destroying dwellings and fishing boats and cutting off roads, local official Abdullahi Hashi said.
He said nomads staying in eastern Puntland were the worst affected by the storm, which hit the region beginning Sunday and is continuing.
No deaths have so far been reported. Hashi called for emergency aid for the victims. ...


Edit: Oh wait, here is something:
Deadly cyclone triggers heavy flooding in Yemen
Chapala makes landfall in southeastern provinces of Hadramawt and Shabwa, having killed three on the island of Socotra.
Aljazeera, 03 Nov 2015 15:32 GMT
A rare tropical cyclone has slammed into Yemen, triggering heavy flooding and causing damage in a region of the war-racked country.
Packing winds of more than 100 km/h, Cyclone Chapala made landfall in the southeastern provinces of Hadramawt and Shabwa, Minister of Fisheries Fahd Kafain told the AFP news agency.
"The damage is enormous," said the minister on Tuesday, part of a commission set up to deal with the cyclone that brewed in the Arabian Sea.
The World Health Organisation said that it had delivered trauma kits for 1,000 patients in Mukalla and was providing fuel for hospitals and ambulances.
It said Hadramawt and Shabwa had a combined population of about 1.8 million people, including more than 100,000 internally displaced and 27,000 refugees.
The storm earlier wreaked havoc on the island of Socotra, located 350km off the Yemeni mainland.
Three people were killed, more than 200 injured, and dozens of houses and hamlets severely damaged or washed away.
'City drowns'
Images posted on social media showed heavy floods hitting the streets of Mukalla, the provincial capital of Hadramawt, bringing further misery to Yemenis already beset by poverty and rampant unrest.
The Yemen Post newspaper described the city as being "under water," saying on Twitter that Chapala "drowns city with 40 inches of water". ...
For those having a rough time with the new Antarctic Ice study, here is a great explanation in context. "Is Antarctica Gaining or Losing Ice: Hint Losing" by Phil Plait
Quoting 365. HadesGodWyvern:

95A..

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 3 2015
===========================

Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over east central Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast, a low pressure area has formed over east central & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km above mean sea level.

The system would become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.


I was just going to ask whether I was being paranoid in thinking that big blob looks like it has a bit of rotation. I assume I'm looking at the same thing as the Indian Met Office.
Quoting 370. Xandra:

Experts dispute NASA study showing Antarctic ice gain

Data results contradict 13 years of NASA measurements showing net ice loss on southern continent

A number of experts are disputing the conclusion of a recent NASA study that says more ice is accumulating in Antarctica than is being lost due to climate change. They argue that the study contradicts more than a decade of other scientific measurements — including previous NASA studies.

[...]

“There is no quality data to support the claims made by the authors of [ice] growth in East Antarctica,” said Eric Rignot, principle scientist for the Radar Science and Engineering Section at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

[...]

Complete article >>

--------------

See also:

Antarctic ice - growing or shrinking? NASA vs Princeton and Leeds etc



Fig.2. Ice mass changes (mass corrected using the GIA model by Ivins et al., 2013) in gigatons (Gt). The black lines are monthly GRACE observations with 2σ error bars determined from our analysis. The solid blue lines are the best-fit quadratic curves. Source: Harig and Simons 2015

If you look at the data with the error bars, it looks (yeah, I know) possible that the data could support a claim of rising land ice between 2003 and 2008. Obviously, though, that would not be an accurate portrayal of the overall data. IOW, the Zwally paper may be a "one of those things" paper of no significance even if it is technically accurate.
Quoting 367. ScottLincoln:


The paper from NASA scientists being discussed was not about sea ice extent, it was land ice volume.*

My description of glacier/ice cap processes was fundamentally correct. Change in storage is equal to the accumulation minus the loss. So snowfall ice volume minus ablation/melting ice volume. Desert or not, that doesn't change the underlying science behind how the ice sheet works. Maybe this helps provide some context into just how long it takes to accumulate that much ice on the continent.

Here's an article to help you:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understandi ng-climate/climate-change-glacier-mass-balance

*On related note, that paper on ice volume actually doesn't mean quite what people think it means - it was over a relatively short period in time and we have other studies that cover longer, more climate-relevant durations.


There is no consensus that continental ice is growing. There is a consensus that sea ice is growing, probably for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

Yes, I understand overly simplistic mass balance equations (the word you want to use is sublimation, not ablation fyi, glacial ablation is a general term for all ice lost through all processes).
Quoting 371. capeflorida:

Toasty!





and this think last year you all where in the icy box
Quoting 365. HadesGodWyvern:

95A..

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 3 2015
===========================

Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over east central Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast, a low pressure area has formed over east central & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km above mean sea level.

The system would become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.


GFS/Euro show it becoming a weak tropical storm, with the Euro having another weak tropical storm follow behind it in the long range.
Quoting 377. pipelines:



There is no consensus that continental ice is growing. There is a consensus that sea ice is growing, probably for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

Yes, I understand overly simplistic mass balance equations (the word you want to use is sublimation, not ablation fyi, glacial ablation is a general term for all ice lost through all processes).


GRACE data points out mass decreasing, sea ice increasing.

Link
Quoting 378. Tazmanian:




and this think last year you all where in the icy box

"The weather will continue to change on and off for a long, long time." ~ Hippy Dippy Weatherman Al Sleet
It's one of those coffee and TV, chili for dinner type of days
Quoting 379. Envoirment:



GFS/Euro show it becoming a weak tropical storm, with the Euro having another weak tropical storm follow behind it in the long range.


Lower right corner.
Found this latest Humanitarian Report (No 5) in Arabian Language. Here what google translated (unfortunately I'm not able to correct some blurry parts for obvious reasons ;-)
(Interesting that in the report from Socotra no fatalities are mentioned. That's what I got from other sources as well: those deaths may not be confirmed by local authorities yet).

Report # network development YDV No. 5 on the humanitarian situation in areas # Aasar_tchabala
Tuesday, November 3rd, 2015, 14:00
1. Weather:
Mukalla city woke up this morning on the streets submerged in flood waters and rain, where rainfall will continue throughout the day between heavy and medium height with waves of between 6-8 meters and varying winds up to 48 knots.
Damage:
Mukalla #: spotted reports from Mukalla YDN office cut off the main roads in the city and the interruption of some networks.
The evacuated patients Mukalla Center for Childhood and Motherhood to charity Bdis Mukalla center belonging to the Association of wisdom, and the evacuation of patients Rayyan Hospital, as were evacuated residents of 40 apartments as a result of the invasion of floods to the Bin Mahfouz towers, and the evacuation of the remaining residents of the neighborhood of the martyr Khaled, and the population of the reservoir area.
Activists also transfer images to demolish al-Zahra mosque Bkrnic Mukalla.
# Socotra: According to a source in the local authority for the Socotra archipelago, the damage recorded in the coastal strip north of Socotra case of northeast region and even Dihamd areas as follows:
- Completely destroyed the home's 117
- Partially demolished home for 612
- Loss and break the 203 fishing boats with their engines and gear
- Hundreds of dead animals and palm trees, is currently difficult to accurately counted, as well as to cut off the main roads connecting between the villages and the cities of the archipelago.
# Skilled [= probably means: Al Mahra Governate; my addition): activists field by the hurricane hit four districts (gas, Hsoan, Qishn, Sayhut) with a constant flow of Seoul and did not record any victims.
# Shabwa: exposed area to make it all the houses demolished 100 houses guestrooms, cliff and a lot of property and livestock. The area make it inhabited by 300 families due to the hurricane disaster area.
Relief work and accommodation:
Field teams of young volunteers and local organizations and youth initiatives continue to evictions and rescue the stranded and the provision of accommodation and to ensure adequate supplies for the displaced buildings.
Reform Society in Wadi Hadramout Branch also worked in cooperation with the local authority to provide shelter for 110 people from the people of Socotra Airport stranded bad.
Finally, following claims by the field teams and local organizations to immediately intervene to help those affected in Mukalla coast population. And to avoid the serious damage caused by the torrential flow of the buildings, roads, electricity and telecommunications networks, also called for providing the necessary shelter and secure the lives of the displaced material.
Taiz News Network


(YDN means: Yemeni Development Network for NGOs)

Edit: Some more tweets:

Yemen Post Newspaper @YemenPostNews 48 Min.Vor 48 Minuten
#Chapala starts to FLOOD 3rd #Yemen province as city of Ataq, Shabwa feels the wrath of cyclonic storm

Jane Novak -@JNovak_Yemen 36 Min.Vor 36 Minuten
Torrential flash floods & debris flows also reported in low lying valleys of Shabwa #Yemen from Cyclone #Chapala

Yemen Post Newspaper @YemenPostNews 22 Min.Vor 22 Minuten
AFTERMATH of #Chapala in #Yemen city of Mukalla is devastating as 100,000's lives at risk & no intl support
Quoting 382. win1gamegiantsplease:

It's one of those coffee and TV, chili for dinner type of days

Go easy on the TVs. They're surprisingly fattening.
386. MahFL
Quoting 317. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Chapala broke up pretty quickly between yesterday and this morning and not much rain in this morning's WV shot. Hopefully this will keep flash flooding and mudslides down to a minimum inland:






The flash floods were already massive.
Quoting 371. capeflorida:

Toasty!


Looks like mid September instead of November.
Quoting 372. 19N81W:

Thats normal.......lets all be happy its insanely abnormally hot..........again


These temps must be caused by climate change, nothing to do with this very strong Nino.
Quoting 357. weathermanwannabe:



Because they cover the issue in their science books (in terms of actual science based on data), as a Floridian all of my life (both in South Florida and North Florida) have seen Winters become milder and milder over the past 40 years, the data and science coming in from around the world for the past few decades, and I like to share my personal beliefs with my Children when they ask.


The winters of the 1980s (not all but some), while not averaging below normal had an extreme frequency of freezes in all of Florida compared with decades before and after including the colder ones before. Anyone
defining the 1970-1990 period as a base is going to see an apparent large mildness trend. This is not a denialist statement, temperatures overall are getting warmer globally but the moderation from an extreme effect I describe is a large term in preception in FL.

The USDA plant hardiness zones moved on average about half a zone further south in the 1990 revised map (then moved back north in the revision sometime in the early aughts). The zone map prior to 1990 looks similar but a little cooler than the one released the the early aughts.. Many people picked up on the move north after 2000 but you have to be old and active in horticulture to have noticed the move south in 1990.

In the Middle Atlantic states arctic outbreaks in 1982, 1985, and 1994 were colder than any other in my life from 1958- ?? and they were outlier cold.. no others come close. (Christmas 1983 was pretty close)




i hope it is I really do......
I can tell you though that the heat and tides in my part of the world have been abnormally high.....for months...

Quoting 388. NativeSun:

These temps must be caused by climate change, nothing to do with this very strong Nino.
Quoting 388. NativeSun:

These temps must be caused by climate change, nothing to do with this very strong Nino.

El Niño is certainly a large part. But El Niño appears fairly frequently, so the record warmth must be due at least in part to some other factor. AGW is a pretty good bet to be that factor.
And now for something completely different...........


And now for some more science:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/11/just-n udge-could-collapse-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-raise -sea-levels-3-meters

It won’t take much to cause the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet to collapse—and once it starts, it won’t stop. In the last year, a slew of papers has highlighted the vulnerability of the ice sheet covering the western half of the continent, suggesting that its downfall is inevitable—and probably already underway. Now, a new model shows just how this juggernaut could unfold. A relatively small amount of melting over a few decades, the authors say, will inexorably lead to the destabilization of the entire ice sheet and the rise of global sea levels by as much as 3 meters.

Previous models have examined the onset of the collapse in detail. In 2014, two papers, one in Science and one in Geophysical Review Letters, noted that the Thwaites Glacier, which some scientists call the “weak underbelly” of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, has retreated dramatically over the past 2 decades. Most Antarctic researchers chalk this up to warm seawater melting the floating ice shelves at their bases; seawater temperatures there have risen since the 1970s, in part because of global temperature increases. Right now, an underwater ledge is helping anchor the glacier in place. But when the glacier retreats past that bulwark, it will collapse into the ocean; then seawater will intrude and melt channels into the ice sheet, setting the juggernaut in motion.

Scientists agree that this is going to happen, says Eric Rignot of the University of California, Irvine, lead author of the Geophysical Review Letters paper. “The real central question is the time scale.”

Quoting 387. washingtonian115:

Looks like mid September instead of November.



and last year you where all in the icy box but this year is 100% flip flop
Quoting 394. Tazmanian:




and last year you where all in the icy box but this year is 100% flip flop


And both are within expected North American climatology although last year was more extremely cold
than this year has been extremely warm.

Personal opinion.. I'll take it!
So if today's discussion is to be believed, then the AGW-deniers are happy to take at face value 1) a NASA report about expanding Antarctic sea ice; and 2) El Nino's effects on global climate conditions.

If only NASA and the climate scientists who are documenting El Nino would chime in on global warming!
Quoting 395. georgevandenberghe:



And both are within expected North American climatology although last year was more extremely cold
than this year has been extremely warm.

Personal opinion.. I'll take it!



at lest this fall so far you are saveing 100s on youe heating bill
Here is an interesting Link to an article about tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/004316 502760195911/pdf

The Cyclone that hit Aden in 1885 was surely more than a category 1 storm, according to the current article on Chapala on weather.com, over the open sea, since the pressure dropped at least to 943 hPa. Depending on which wind-pressure-relationship you use, this yields a wind speed between 100 and 120 knots, that covers the categor 3 range and even the lower category 4 range.
The pressure at landfall was 979 hPa, measured on a ship just off the coast, which fits to what you expect from a category 1 storm.
Quoting 397. Tazmanian:




at lest this fall so far you are saveing 100s on youe heating bill


My heating bill is well below the $100s/month this time of year even in a cool Nov. but it starts ramping up quickly after 11/15. I have used heat on cool mornings but have not yet gone to the bother of building a fire in the woodstove. Have 1.5 cords of firewood, all untouched so far with another cord from my tree surgeon friends in the delivery pipeline (as in "george when can you take it?")
Quoting 387. washingtonian115:

Looks like mid September instead of November.

I'll take it as long as I can get it....

Plenty a dreary day there will be Dec-Feb
Quoting 383. capeflorida:



Lower right corner.



THE CHAPALA IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER YEMEN AS FAST AS I HAVE EVEN SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED.
One of the upsides of warmer winters is saving some money on Winter heating costs and particularly for those who are on fixed incomes............Alternatively, you may have to run the air conditioner if it gets too hot for your particular abode.

Personally, unless an extreme heat wave is in progress at your locale, you can open windows and stay in the shade (no heavy duty physical activity outside) during hot periods if air conditioning is not an option. However, when bitter cold happens, you have to keep warm both inside and outside to save your life.

As bad as muggy heat is, I would take it over bitter cold any day..........................
Quoting 387. washingtonian115:

Looks like mid September instead of November.
for me it looks like more than summer,today i went for a stroll and i felt the heat as i was walking back home i was sweating buckets,not cool for this time of year
Quoting 402. weathermanwannabe:

One of the upsides of warmer winters is saving some money on Winter heating costs and particularly for those who are on fixed incomes............Alternatively, you may have to run the air conditioner if it gets too hot for your particular abode.
this is true for all of those that live north of florida lol but here is the reverse warmth winters make us pay more in terms of electricity bill
Quoting 401. 62901IL:

THE CHAPALA IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER YEMEN AS FAST AS I HAVE EVEN SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED.


Mountainous enough: Link
Current Conditions Station reported 3 seconds ago: 89.5 °F
Feels Like 100.2 °F
Dew Point: 75 °F
Humidity: 63%

Feels Like 100.2 °F

Feels Like 100.2 °F

C'mon!!! This is NOVEMBER!!!
Quoting 405. cRRKampen:



Mountainous enough: Link


I was quoting Don's last discussion from 2011.
Quoting 398. ChateauChalon:

Here is an interesting Link to an article about tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/004316 502760195911/pdf...

Link doesn't work for me, CC.
2015

The Year the Climate Struck Back.

Did anyone over 55 actually think there was NOT going to be a Price to pay for ALL these WUnder Years we have seen,



We have now lived in 7 decades, 2 centuries and 2 Millennium.




In 50 years with the CO2 nearing 500ppm, its gonna be really hard to enjoy the Beach when it is 105F, and the dewpoint is 77F.



Weally.

Quoting 407. 62901IL:



I was quoting Don's last discussion from 2011.

Right... I do not possess such antiquity here :)
412. MahFL
95A could develop :

"...(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6N 68.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 031413Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...."
carib.coming.alive?
'Severe impact' feared in Yemen due to rain potential of cyclone Chapala
UN News Center, Nov 3, 2015
Excerpt: Clare Nullis, spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ...further noted that that the country doesn't have a functioning meteorological service or an observation network – making is challenging for WMO to know how much rain Yemen will get, and to assess what is happening.
Quoting 412. MahFL:

95A could develop :

"...(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6N 68.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 031413Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...."

Déja-vu feeling...
416. MahFL
Quoting 401. 62901IL:



THE CHAPALA IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER YEMEN AS FAST AS I HAVE EVEN SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED.


There are mountains, right on the coast.

Those Pesky facts always in the way of a post,eh?

: P
Quoting 415. cRRKampen:


Deja-vu feeling...


Already visible (off India's westcoast).
410. Patrap
November 03, 2015
In 50 years with the CO2 nearing 500ppm, its gonna be really hard to enjoy the Beach when it is 105F, and the dewpoint is 77F.


I was told by my new 28yo co-worker, that the scientists could all be lying about tree rings and ice drilling and stuff. She said we don't even know if the Crustaceous Period (sic) really happened.

I have to train this child to do a job that I have been doing for 33 years. If I don't learn to bite my tongue, I know I'm gonna get in trouble. I just know it.
forget post 406-

Current Conditions Station reported 2 seconds ago: 89.1 °F
Feels Like 103.9 °F
Humidity: 71%

Feels Like 103.9 °F


dagnabbit...

This flash flood video from Mukalla has been on twitter news since late morning (and now on youtube). I think it's trustable.

Here is a new one from Mukalla (says the tweet). Could be right. Waterfall right into the streets.

Thousands of Yemeni families displaced by Cyclone Chapala
By Drew Parker on November 3, 2015
HADHRAMAUT, Yemen - More than three thousand families in Yemen have been internally displaced after Cyclone Chapala pounded the country's southern Hadhramaut province late Monday, according to a Yemeni emergency official.
The official, who preferred anonymity, told Anadolu Agency that numerous families in the province had to flee their homes due to severe winds and heavy rainfall caused by the cyclone.
Hadhramaut's coastal areas, he added, had suffered serious flooding after the cyclone caused the sea level to rise by between four and eight meters.
According to preliminary assessments, 15 homes were damaged in the city of Mukalla, Hadhramaut's provincial capital, which also suffered power outages in several areas.
Even before the arrival of Cyclone Chapala, Yemen had stood on the brink of humanitarian catastrophe. ...

Reporting what's happening is obviously really difficult! (I've seen tweets maintaining that some hamlets were washed away.)
422. MAstu
Couple questions for the blogosphere:

Any details from Yemen? e.g. rainfall totals, power outages, road closures etc.

Are any of the midrange models projecting more rain for them?

What is the nature of flooding? Rivers overflowing banks? Flash flooding? Mudslides? Surge flooding?
Quoting 406. aquak9:

Current Conditions Station reported 3 seconds ago: 89.5 °F
Feels Like 100.2 °F
Dew Point: 75 °F
Humidity: 63%

Feels Like 100.2 °F

Feels Like 100.2 °F

C'mon!!! This is NOVEMBER!!!



From S. WI - I have a Canadian Anemone blooming in my flower garden and so far today, we are up to 74. Yesterday we topped out at 73. Good grief!
Record highs at almost every site so far in Central Florida. Some nearing All Time records yet again. What's impressive about this Historic Heat Wave is the humidity that is accompanying it.
PWS about 4 to 5 miles away has 91 with a 70 dewpoint. Heat index is 97. There's even a PWS to my SE registering 96! Ouch!!
95A

2015 will easily surpass 2014, the Warmest Year ever recorded.

The CO2 rise and the warming have now contributed to 31 straight years of Monthly Warm Biased temperatures.

In a row.
Quoting 425. Grothar:




Models bring that mess into the Gulf and possibly over FL come later this weekend. Maybe some relief from the heat with all the rain around by then.
You never know what could happen downstream as the Hispanola wave moves West in a few days:







Quoting 418. barbamz:



Already visible (off India's westcoast).
Hello Barb..November is a peak month if i,m not mistaken. So they could end up with several systems, and another intense system late in the month. Where it goes is anyones guess, but the Pakistan/India border is a natural point of landfall for Arabian Sea cyclones.
Here we go the Euro is beginning to pop the ridge up across Canada with pressures lowering across FL & the Gulf as the jet gets displaced over the Gulf & FL as opposed to being across the Northern US. This is likely the start to this El-Nino pattern across FL with wetter weather coming this weekend.


Quoting 419. aquak9:

She said we don't even know if the Crustaceous Period (sic) really happened.


Just send her over to my house. I have crustaceans every weekend. There's proof of its' existence.
Quoting 408. barbamz:


Link doesn't work for me, CC.


Now it should:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/0043165027601 95911/pdf (or with copy and paste and make sure that there is no "http://" before the name)
Just for kicks..

Quoting 432. hydrus:

Hello Barb..November is a peak month if i,m not mistaken. So they could end up with several systems, and another intense system late in the month. Where it goes is anyones guess, but the Pakistan/India border is a natural point of landfall for Arabian Sea cyclones.

Yeah, unless it will follow exactly Chapala's track which is what ECMWF claimed yesterday ;-) Fresh 12z run from today sends the system west as well but let it end as a low over Socotra and Somalia/Puntland, if I get this right.
Quoting 436. ChateauChalon:



Now it should:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/0043165027601 95911/pdf (or with copy and paste and make sure that there is no "http://" before the name)

No, it doesn't :-(
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
So the Hydra has been used for 2015... Y'know what I wanna see for 2016?

An angry old woman chasing us around with a cast-iron skillet.

Just in case the hydra didn't quite get it's point across.
Quoting 410. Patrap:

In 50 years with the CO2 nearing 500ppm, its gonna be really hard to enjoy the Beach when it is 105F, and the dewpoint is 77F.



Weally.




What Beach?
Quoting 393. weathermanwannabe:

And now for some more science:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/11/just-n udge-could-collapse-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-raise -sea-levels-3-meters

It won’t take much to cause the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet to collapse—and once it starts, it won’t stop. In the last year, a slew of papers has highlighted the vulnerability of the ice sheet covering the western half of the continent, suggesting that its downfall is inevitable—and probably already underway. Now, a new model shows just how this juggernaut could unfold. A relatively small amount of melting over a few decades, the authors say, will inexorably lead to the destabilization of the entire ice sheet and the rise of global sea levels by as much as 3 meters.

Previous models have examined the onset of the collapse in detail. In 2014, two papers, one in Science and one in Geophysical Review Letters, noted that the Thwaites Glacier, which some scientists call the “weak underbelly” of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, has retreated dramatically over the past 2 decades. Most Antarctic researchers chalk this up to warm seawater melting the floating ice shelves at their bases; seawater temperatures there have risen since the 1970s, in part because of global temperature increases. Right now, an underwater ledge is helping anchor the glacier in place. But when the glacier retreats past that bulwark, it will collapse into the ocean; then seawater will intrude and melt channels into the ice sheet, setting the juggernaut in motion.

Scientists agree that this is going to happen, says Eric Rignot of the University of California, Irvine, lead author of the Geophysical Review Letters paper. “The real central question is the time scale.”

And how long will all this take to happen?
Quoting 396. MaineGuy:

So if today's discussion is to be believed, then the AGW-deniers are happy to take at face value 1) a NASA report about expanding Antarctic sea ice; and 2) El Nino's effects on global climate conditions.

If only NASA and the climate scientists who are documenting El Nino would chime in on global warming!
You do know a Very Strong Nino will affect the climate temps.
Quoting 402. weathermanwannabe:

One of the upsides of warmer winters is saving some money on Winter heating costs and particularly for those who are on fixed incomes............Alternatively, you may have to run the air conditioner if it gets too hot for your particular abode.

Personally, unless an extreme heat wave is in progress at your locale, you can open windows and stay in the shade (no heavy duty physical activity outside) during hot periods if air conditioning is not an option. However, when bitter cold happens, you have to keep warm both inside and outside to save your life.

As bad as muggy heat is, I would take it over bitter cold any day..........................
I agree with you 100%.
Quoting 404. knightwarrior41:

this is true for all of those that live north of florida lol but here is the reverse warmth winters make us pay more in terms of electricity bill
Not really if you use electricity to warm your house, like most people in Florida.
Quoting 377. pipelines:



...the word you want to use is sublimation, not ablation fyi, glacial ablation is a general term for all ice lost through all processes...

Ablation was the term I meant to use. Snowfall is accumulation and ablation is the loss.