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Category 4 Chapala On Its Way to Yemen; Texas Gasping after More Record Rain

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2015

Tropical Cyclone Chapala, the second strongest storm on record for the Arabian Sea, is holding its own as it continues plowing westward toward Yemen. As of 8:00 am EDT Saturday, Chapala’s top sustained winds were down to 135 mph, at the other end of the Category 4 scale from the peak of 155 mph observed on Friday. After its structure was somewhat disrupted on Friday, perhaps by dry air intruding into its circulation, Chapala appears to be regrouping, with a solid inner core of convection and a distinct eye 10 miles in diameter.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen from the International Space Station at sunset on Halloween evening, October 31, 2015. At the time, Chapala was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. The coast of Oman/Yemen is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite on Saturday morning, October 31, 2015. At the time, Chapala was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Chapala
The biggest change since Friday is a southward departure in Chapala’s track. The cyclone is now heading due west and should continue on that bearing for the next couple of days, with a slight curve to the west-northwest as it approaches Yemen on Monday night. Chapala’s healthy structure may keep dry air at bay for some time, but eventually the cyclone should weaken as it near the Arabian Peninsula and ingests greater amounts of parched desert air. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center brings Chapala onshore in the high tropical-storm-strength range, with sustained winds possibly close to hurricane strength.


Figure 3. Three tropical cyclones are known to have made landfall on the southern coast of Oman and Yemen betwen 1891 and the beginning of modern satellite records (1990). Two of these reached northeast Yemen, in May 1959 and May 1960. Both were rated as “severe cyclonic storms” prior to landfall (solid line), meaning their top 3-minute average wind speeds were at least 48 knots (55 mph). Image credit: Courtesy Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Head, Cyclone Warning Division and Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, India Meteorological Department.


According to NOAA's Historical Hurricanes tool, there have only been six major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea (though accurate satellite records go back to just 1990.) The Arabian Sea doesn't get many tropical cyclones since it is small; furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon keeps the tropical cyclone season short, with a short season that lasts from May to early June before the monsoon arrives, then another short season in late October through November after the monsoon has departed. Strong Arabian Sea storms are rare due to high wind shear and copious dry air from the deserts of the Middle East, with just two Category 4 or 5 storms ever recorded--Gonu in 2007 and Phet in 2010. Both cyclones hit Oman after weakening below Category 4 strength.

Landfalling cyclones are even more rare in Yemen. The only one in the post-1990 satellite database is Tropical Depression Three of 2008 (also known as the 2008 Yemen Cyclone), which came on the heels of heavy rains from another storm and resulted in disastrous flooding. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, that storm killed 90 people and did $400 million in damage, making it the second worst natural disaster in Yemen's history, behind a June 13, 1996 flood (thanks go to wunderground member TropicalAnalystwx13 for alerting us to this fact.) The India Meteorological Department maintains a database of tropical cyclones in the region going back to 1891 that shows two cyclonic storms reaching the Yemen coast in 1960 and 1961 (see Figure 3).


Figure 4. The port of Al Mukalla. Image credit: Roo72/Wikimedia Commons.


Figure 5. Topography of Yemen. Image credit: Sadalmelik/Wikimedia Commons.

Chapala’s southward track will make it only the second tropical cyclone recorded near the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, which is crossed by roughly 400 ships a week. The adjustment in Chapala’s track could have major implications for Yemen, as it brings the center closer to the 980-year-old settlement of Al Mukalla (also known as Mukalla), a busy port and Yemen’s fifth-largest city (population around 300,000). If Chapala were to pass just south of Al Mukalla, the sharp angle of approach to the coast would accentuate any storm surge. Yemen has been in the grip of a civil war since March, so any landfall near this populated area could intersect with the conflict in hard-to-predict ways. According to an October 30 article from Reuters, ten of Yemen's 22 governorates were assessed as being in an emergency food situation in June, one step below famine on a five-point scale. The assessment has not been updated since then, partly because experts have not managed to get sufficient access to survey the situation. About a third of the country's population, or 7.6 million people urgently require food aid, the The U.N. World Food Programme said (thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for alerting us to this article.)

As it moves ashore, Chapala will slam into steep mountains near the coast, boosting its potential to dump several years’ worth of rain in just a day or two (see Figure 6). The annual average rainfall in Yemen is less than 2” along the immediate coast and less than 5” inland, except along higher terrain, where it can approach 10”. Any landfall near Al Mukalla could result in serious urban flooding (the city straddles a canal that extends to the coast from the adjacent mountainsides).


Figure 6. The 5-day rainfall forecast from the 2 am EDT Saturday, October 31, 2015 run of the HWRF model called for some truly stunning rainfall amounts in the parched desert regions of eastern Yemen: over two feet! Image credit: NOAA/EMC.

Rain-weary Texans deal with another deluge
Yet another round of epic downpours struck the heart of Texas from Friday into Saturday. The focus on Friday morning was the HIll Country and the adjacent San Antonio and Austin metro areas, which suffered through record rain and destructive flooding back in May. The air traffic control center at Austin’s Bergstrom International Airport has been shut down after being inundated with six inches of water on Friday. A Houston center is handling its duties until a temporary facility arrives on Monday. Bergstrom received 5.76” of rain in just one hour, as part of a phenomenal calendar-day total of 14.99” on Friday. That’s more than the site had ever recorded in any prior 14-day period! (Records at Bergstrom go back to 1942. Thanks to Nick Wiltgen at weather.com for this statistic.). The total also came within a hair (0.067%) of reaching the city’s all-time 24-hour record of 15.00”, set at Camp Mabry on September 9, 1921, in association with a Category 1 hurricane that caused severe flooding in the San Antonio area. Further south, Brownsville had its second wettest October day in 128 years of recordkeeping, with 6.55” on Friday beaten only by 9.09” on October 4, 1996, in association with Tropical Storm Josephine. The absence of a tropical cyclone makes this event across central and south Texas all the more remarkable.


Figure 7. Jim Richardson and his wife Jeannette look on as the Blanco River recedes after the flash flood in Wimberly, Texas Friday, Oct. 30, 2015. A fast-moving storm packing heavy rain and destructive winds overwhelmed rivers and prompted evacuations Friday in the same area of Central Texas that saw devastating spring floods. Image credit: Ricardo Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP.


Figure 8. Estimated rainfall between 7:00 am CDT Friday, October 30, and Saturday, October 31. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


A subsequent round of heavy thunderstorms moved into southeast Texas overnight and into Saturday morning, causing widespread flooding in the Houston area, as well as scattered wind damage perhaps associated with one or more tornadoes. With light rain hanging on at noon CDT Saturday, Houston’s Hobby Airport had received 6.50” for the day, bringing its monthly total to 14.24”. Hobby will fall short of the Houston area’s wettest October on record, 17.64” in 1949, a total largely goosed by a Category 2 hurricane early that month. The front edge of this sprawling area of heavy thunderstorms is now approaching southeast Louisiana, which has also been hammered by heavy rain in October. Baton Rouge had received 10.85” for the month as of Friday, and New Orleans 8.88”. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for as much as 5-6” of rain over the area today into Sunday. Baton Rouge has an outside chance of scoring its wettest October on record (17.64”, from 1949; records go back to 1889), as does the Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport (13.20” in 1985, in association with Hurricane Juan; records go back to 1946).

Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport racked up another 2.25” from Friday through 11:00 am CDT Saturday. The airport has now recorded 48.92” for the year, making 2015 the sixth wettest year since DFW-area records began in 1898. One of the most reliable U.S. impacts from El Niño is increased cold-season rainfall from Texas to Florida. Given the strong El Niño influence already at hand, DFW has a good chance over the next two months of topping 53.54” (1991) to score its wettest year on record. In fact, it could happen quite soon: WPC is projecting 2” to 5” of rain across central North Texas late next week, as another strong Pacific upper-level storm carves its way into the western U.S. That storm will give the Pacific Northwest a seasonally heavy drenching this weekend, and it may leave the first significant accumulation of the season along the snow-starved Sierra Nevada on Monday and Tuesday--perhaps as much as a foot on the highest peaks. A winter storm watch has been hoisted for the region, but we’re guessing most residents will be elated rather than spooked by this October 31 development. Have a great Halloween weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters



Video 1. This powerful video was taken by a motorist in central Texas on Friday morning, October 30, 2015, shortly before he awaited rescue. Once a car is afloat in moving water, it will generally flow toward the deepest, fastest-moving areas. According to NOAA, it only takes two feet of moving water to float most vehicles. Image credit: KVUE News.


Video 2. Technician Derek Urch from NWS/Brownsville captured this lightning strike of the WSR-88D Radar, which knocked radar data out completely during a flash flood event on Friday, October 30, 2015. Image credit: NWS/Brownsville.


HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!!
HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!!
BOOOHAHAHAHAHA!!

Hurricane Flood Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

little spin 50w 17n
Received another 2.7" Sunday which was totally unexpected. Weird scenario set up yesterday, with the ULL where this band like feature barely moved all day and just kept dropping light to moderate rains yesterday over SE TX.

Just 60 miles SW and W it was sunny.
Re: Open mindedness:
Those who run scared become blinded by fear and see only an enemy.
~bf

Hopelessness ensues.

wu blog at StormDrain, where I will discuss my views, as life permits, with anyone who wishes:
Deep Impact, Kool-Aid and A.I. Watson

Good Morning. Lots of crazy weather around the world lately courtesy of El Nino and Climate Change Issues.

As for Conus today, here is the look and El Nino split-jet correlation:



Gale for the lakes..

507. MahFL
Snowing good at Truckee Airport, it is 5900 ft above sea level:

Truckee Webcam


Tropical cyclone (tc) 04a (chapala), located approximately 110 nm
east-southeast of mukalla, yemen, has tracked westward at 10 knots
over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
shows the system has maintained a 15-nm eye and overall convective
structure. The initial position is based with high confidence on the
eye feature and lined up with the low reflectivity microwave eye in
the 021059z SSMI pass. The initial intensity is based on an overall
assessment of Dvorak estimates from reporting agencies. Upper level
analysis indicates the system is in an area of moderate 15-knot
southerly vertical wind shear (vws) that is mostly offset by
excellent radial outflow. The cyclone is tracking along the southern
periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge (str). It is expected
to maintain its current track up to tau 12 before making landfall in
central yemen just west of mukalla before making a northwestward turn
along the southwestern edge of the str. Tc chapala will begin to
weaken as dry air emanating from the arabian peninsula, in addition
to increasing vws, erodes the system. The cyclone will then rapidly
decay after landfall - leading to dissipation by end of forecast -
mainly due to land interaction with the rugged and dry yemeni
terrain. Dynamic model guidance remains in good agreement, lending
high confidence to the jtwc forecast. Maximum significant wave height
at 021200z is 30 feet.
Quoting 498. Bucsboltsfan:



Not for Central Florida. Near record heat and dry.


DC area looks moderately warmer than normal this week. Not close to records. I remember playing football
with my friends Nov 1, 1974, 86F, record for the month in DC area. Yeah I was hot.
Florida might miss out on all the rain from El Nino, everybody else gonna get pounded looks like.
A retrograding MJO.- AO and NAO head south..May be a storm or two..



Quoting 509. hydrus:

"The cyclone is tracking along the southern
periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge (str). It is expected
to maintain its current track up to tau 12 before making landfall in
central yemen just west of mukalla "

Looks like a flooding disaster!
Quoting 507. MahFL:

Snowing good at Truckee Airport, it is 5900 ft above sea level:

Truckee Webcam


My family loves to ski Northstar.
Quoting 488. Xyrus2000:



Non-sequitur. But this is standard tactic used by anti-science groups all the time. When your side starts losing in the face of facts, logical, and/or evidence, then change the subject.

Once again, you make an unsubstantiated assumption. In this case, your assumption is that being able to move to a resource is an evolutionary optimum, therefore all life should evolve to meet that criteria.

Of course, being able to move around is not an evolutionary optimum, especially if there are no evolutionary pressures to push an organism towards mobility in the first place. Evolution is not about being the best. It's about being good enough. Trees, as you may have noticed, are very successful as an organism. They've lasted for millions of years. They've survived multiple mass extinction events. Tree species may come and go, but on the whole they have been one of the most prolific, persistent, and hardy classes of organisms on the planet.

You also fail to mention the cons of mobility. Mobility increases the energy needs, metabolism, and complexity of an organism. Photosynthesis alone does not provide the energy necessary for a mobile plant, let alone a tree. It would be like trying to power a car with nothing more than solar panels. The additional complexity just means more things that can go wrong. These negatives combined with the fact that they would be competing against a well established and very successful organism (plain old stationary trees) would make it unlikely for mobility to develop.

Your argument is like asking why our eyes haven't evolved to be able to see IR, or why bears can't fly. It's the same flawed reasoning ID'ers use to try and discredit the biological sciences.


Not a non-seq. I put a link up to the Gray forecast that abandoned the west African rainfall factors, which occurred at the time huge mega dams were built on the Niger River and other western African Rivers. I am postulating that local rain feedbacks occur relative to river chemistry and flow--and drought would serve a macrobiological purpose. Trees burn with a purpose.

There are other things earlier in the evolutionary tree that point to a living earth that as you suggest, must depend solely on efficiency. There is sexual reproduction. Highly inefficient. But if the male aspect serves a purpose in cloud droplets and causes calculative cloud behaviors in DC fields (specifically cirrus clouds the droplets are asymmetrical in DC fields with acids, and varying types of DNA replicated will give a specific cloud microphysics response) you could have your cake (cellular ability to retain chemistry) and gaia control of precip and temperature on earth. The efficiency is defeated by selective pressure of the symbiotic relationship between male and female characteristics.

There are numerous other implausible complexity issues like handedness which are solved by cloud sorting. Shall I go further? I put up a longer one but it was deleted.
Quoting 511. RitaEvac:

Florida might miss out on all the rain from El Nino, everybody else gonna get pounded looks like.

I hope so. Not that I wish ill-will on anyone else, but it's just too much work dealing with winter flooding rains & spring tornados. 97-98 El Nino was unbelievable!
Quoting 513. capeflorida:

Good morning Cape..Wind will also be an issue along with surge..Hope they are ready..959 mb's that close to shore would do some damage to be sure.

BTW2 some of the big trees around here in California, connected to the least saline ocean basin, are threatened. We need rain here badly. Rice farmers around here are getting paid to nix their rice paddies and plant olive trees, which are pretty drought tolerant.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
17:30 PM IST November 2 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala over west central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards with a speed of about 20 km/h during past 6 hours, weakened into a very severe cyclonic storm, and now lays centered over Gulf of Aden and adjoining west central Arabian Sea near 13.4N 50.5E, about 180 km southeast of Riyan (Yemen) (41443) and 550 km southwest of Salalah (Oman) (41316).

It would move west northwestwards, weaken further and cross Yemen coast to the south of Riyan as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 65-70 knots gusting to 80 knots by 1130 AM IST/0600 AM UTC on November 3rd.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T 4.5 and CI 5.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over area between 10.5N to 18.0N and 47.0E to 53.0E and north coastal Yemen. Convection is eye pattern. Eye is ragged and is well-defined in infrared and visible imagery. Eye diameter is about 45 km. The minimum temperature in wall cloud region is -73C. The convection in wall cloud region continues disorganization indicating weakening trend of the system.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 85 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 970 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 13.8N 48.6E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.7N 47.1E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
=================
The sea surface temperature around the system center is about 29C and it decreases towards the west. The ocean thermal energy is about 30-50 kj/cm2 around the system center and it decreases further to the west northwest. The vertical wind shear around the system center has slightly increased and is about 5-15 knots. It further increases towards the northwest. The low level relative vorticity remained same and is about 150 x10-5sec-1. Upper level divergence is about 10x 10-5sec-1 and low level convergence is around 30x 10-5sec-1. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. The system would move west northwestwards. Intrusion of dry air from the northwest continues surrounding the wall cloud region which is helping in weakening of the system. The system is interacting with land surface with spiral band lying over Yemen. However, due to prevalence of weak vertical wind shear the adverse impact of dry air intrusion and land surface interaction has been slow. However, due to decrease in upper level divergence and increase in vertical wind shear due to west northwestward movement, the rate of weakening will now increase gradually.
Quoting 507. MahFL:

Snowing good at Truckee Airport, it is 5900 ft above sea level:

Truckee Webcam

1-1/4 inches of heavy, wet snow at my house right now, with more (hopefully) on its way.
Truckee, CA Forecast
Quoting 519. MichaelDoran:

BTW2 some of the big trees around here in California, connected to the least saline ocean basin, are threatened. We need rain here badly. Rice farmers around here are getting paid to nix their rice paddies and plant olive trees, which are pretty drought tolerant.
Here's something none of the climate or weather "scientists" are talking about. I can't help but wonder why. Follow along: the Pacific is the only ocean basin that starts with the letter 'P'. 'P' is the first letter in 'precipitation' And, usually, that obvious though often overlooked connection is why there's normally lots of precipitation (rain and snow) around the Pacific (think Hawaii). But this year a nucleotide imbalance in the meteoalphabetic teleconnection line (Allen Smithee, et al, 1978) has caused a negative 12-step (one step for each letter in the term 'Pacific Ocean') shift in that meteoalphabetic teleconnection, converting the usual and stable 'P' into a 'D'. Though the two letters rhyme with each other--they exist along the same meteoalphabetic teleconnection, and look similar if you squint, what with a vertical left line and a semi-circle on the right.) Now 'D is, as most people know, the first letter in the words 'drought', 'destruction', 'damage', and so on. I postulate, then, that the California drought is the byproduct of a temporary, cloud-based, nucleotide-driven, left-shifted anomaly in the meteoalphabetic teleconnection. (I'd also suggest renaming the ocean the "Dacific', but closed-minded people would likely not appreciate the genius behind that).

Again, I'm not sure why nobody is talking about this.
A squirt of moisture yesterday and today in central CA, over Nonblanche's house near Fallon, on into Wyoming. Then it's clear and cold for the forseeable future.
Precipitable water, E. Pacific Basin
Hey all, enjoying another day of rain here on the NW FL coast. It was so warm and muggy last night, still running the AC to get a good nights sleep :( 'Enjoyed' our first Tornado warning last night took 20 minutes for the rotating cell to clear out area and then it quickly weakened
Quoting 517. fmbill:


I hope so. Not that I wish ill-will on anyone else, but it's just too much work dealing with winter flooding rains & spring tornados. 97-98 El Nino was unbelievable!


I'll take flooding rains over drought any day, drought is worse. at least with flooding, if you stay away from low ground, you'll be fine, otherwise nature benefits for the most part. Tornadoes are also isolated events.


But, drought hurts all life and ruins everything, therefore El Nino floods are better than never ending ridges of high pressure.
Quoting 523. Neapolitan:

Here's something none of the climate or weather "scientists" are talking about. I can't help but wonder why. Follow along: the Pacific is the only ocean basin that starts with the letter 'P'. 'P' is the first letter in 'precipitation' And, usually, that obvious though often overlooked connection is why there's normally lots of precipitation (rain and snow) around the Pacific (think Hawaii). [snip]

Lol, Nea, you could have been a gifted Kabbalist: "linguistic mysticism: In this, every Hebrew letter, word, number, even accent on words of the Hebrew Bible contain esoteric meanings, describing the spiritual dimensions within exoteric ideas, and it teaches the hermeneutic methods of interpretation for ascertaining these meanings". (Source Wiki)
The broken record of drier than forecast continues around here yet again. Forecasters had to drop rain chances again for Tallahassee.This system clearly was already losing it's forward progress last night, and models haven't been ambitious on QPF or rain chances, so I'm not sure why forecasters had 70-80% for today as of yesterday. Not surprisingly, it dropped to 40% today.

What's also weird, as that yesterday, the forecast high was 85, and the forecast low for this morning was 71, but we had a high of 88 yesterday, and the low was 78 this morning. You would think the morning forecast package would have gone with 88 again, but nope, 86. Here we are at 87, and have already passed the forecast high of 86, sigh...
Quoting 511. RitaEvac:

Florida might miss out on all the rain from El Nino, everybody else gonna get pounded looks like.


There really is no connection now to how it will be in the winter. While El Nino impacts the moisture and jet stream energy and position, it doesn't impact upper level pressure patterns which are always variable. As of now, Florida remains dry due to unusually strong, anchoring high pressure. This amplifies troughing over Texas in response.

However, come winter, it could be troughing in the southeast, and ridging, west, which would mean flooding rains in FL and dry weather out west. There is no way to tell this far out. El Nino can't make the entire southern tier from west to east west simultaneously because of how pressure patterns work, especially when the upper level pressure patterns aren't progressive like right now.
Quoting 490. NativeSun:

But anything is possible, if you have the imagination to make it happen.
Um...no. (Hint: laws of gravity, thermodynamics, etc)
Yep, drought kills everything, all vegetation gets wiped out. Yards, trees, slabs on houses crack, insects and animals start eating things up, etc...At least with floods, the water goes down, and everything is green and lush and everything flourishes.
Quoting 529. Jedkins01:



There really is no connection now to how it will be in the winter. While El Nino impacts the moisture and jet stream energy and position, it doesn't impact upper level pressure patterns which are always variable. As of now, Florida remains dry due to unusually strong, anchoring high pressure. This amplifies troughing over Texas in response.

However, come winter, it could be troughing in the southeast, and ridging, west, which would mean flooding rains in FL and dry weather out west. There is no way to tell this far out. El Nino can't make the entire southern tier from west to east west simultaneously because of how pressure patterns work, especially when the upper level pressure patterns aren't progressive like right now.


Dr. Greg Postel on TWC said that there are signs that other factors could come into play this winter and that we may not see the extreme impacts like we saw in 97-98.
The heat index at 11 AM in Tampa was already 92 degrees. Just ridiculous.
Postive NAO/AO + negative PNA = Blowtorch November
Quoting 490. NativeSun:

But anything is possible, if you have the imagination to make it happen.


Is it possible that your statement is false?
Daughter just called and said its raining pretty good where she is...................................
Quoting 523. Neapolitan:

Here's something none of the climate or weather "scientists" are talking about. I can't help but wonder why. Follow along: the Pacific is the only ocean basin that starts with the letter 'P'. 'P' is the first letter in 'precipitation' And, usually, that obvious though often overlooked connection is why there's normally lots of precipitation (rain and snow) around the Pacific (think Hawaii). But this year a nucleotide imbalance in the meteoalphabetic teleconnection line (Allen Smithee, et al, 1978) has caused a negative 12-step (one step for each letter in the term 'Pacific Ocean') shift in that meteoalphabetic teleconnection, converting the usual and stable 'P' into a 'D'. Though the two letters rhyme with each other--they exist along the same meteoalphabetic teleconnection, and look similar if you squint, what with a vertical left line and a semi-circle on the right.) Now 'D is, as most people know, the first letter in the words 'drought', 'destruction', 'damage', and so on. I postulate, then, that the California drought is the byproduct of a temporary, cloud-based, nucleotide-driven, left-shifted anomaly in the meteoalphabetic teleconnection. (I'd also suggest renaming the ocean the "Dacific', but closed-minded people would likely not appreciate the genius behind that).

Again, I'm not sure why nobody is talking about this.


YES! ...wait, what? (Alfred, get vis0 on the line)
Quoting 512. hydrus:

A retrograding MJO.- AO and NAO head south..May be a storm or two..




it means no cooler weather for us in the deep south anytime soon.it sucks!
Quoting 520. hydrus:


upper level low?
Quoting 537. barbamz:


Rare sighting.

Nice visual close-up from Eumetsat here (tweet).


Looking like Chapala inner core is beginning to break down in that loop. Eye is filled and inner core has shrank considerably vs. yesterday. Looking like JWTC is right one with respect to intensity track. Still should be a 70-80 knot storm upon landfall unless it veers more west with time, then maybe weaker.
In Chiaravalle, in the province of Catanzaro, 600 mm rain fell in 48 hours and 234 in 24 hours.

Violent surges and flash flooding hit Calabria and Sicily (pictures and videos)
Quoting 530. FLwolverine:

Um...no. (Hint: laws of gravity, thermodynamics, etc)


Gravity? Probably a plot to sell more books and get grants.
Have you examined Intelligent Falling?

Link
Quoting 526. Jedkins01:



I'll take flooding rains over drought any day, drought is worse. at least with flooding, if you stay away from low ground, you'll be fine, otherwise nature benefits for the most part. Tornadoes are also isolated events.


But, drought hurts all life and ruins everything, therefore El Nino floods are better than never ending ridges of high pressure.

And that's the next part of the equation for Florida. After the winter 1997 flooding, and the worst tornado outbreak ever seen here occurred in Feb 1998, it stopped raining and didn't start again until the end of July. Fireworks, Daytona races, outdoor events were all cancelled because half the State was on fire. Worst wildfire season ever. Ugh!
Chapala is impressive. Only the second cyclone to my knowledge that has gotten firmly in the Gulf of Aden (2008 Yemen cyclone being the other), and the only hurricane strength storm to do so. Chapala looks primed to be the first hurricane strength system to make landfall in Yemen as well, the impact could be severe judging from the 2008 cyclone's as a comparison. Very complicated with the fighting going on as mentioned in the blog post.

Quoting 536. LargoFl:

Daughter just called and said its raining pretty good where she is...................................


That's a good place for it to drop! Hopefully the whole San Joaquin Valley will get some! It's supposed to make it down to me tonight and tomorrow am.
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Quoting 529. Jedkins01:
While El Nino impacts the moisture and jet stream energy and position, it doesn't impact upper level pressure patterns which are always variable.
Eh? That's a bit unclear. I thought "upper level pressure patterns" and "jet stream energy and position" had a lot of over lap, in some cases are the same thing. How can it affect one without the other? Just a question.
Quoting 523. Neapolitan:

Here's something none of the climate or weather "scientists" are talking about. I can't help but wonder why. Follow along: the Pacific is the only ocean basin that starts with the letter 'P'. 'P' is the first letter in 'precipitation' And, usually, that obvious though often overlooked connection is why there's normally lots of precipitation (rain and snow) around the Pacific (think Hawaii). But this year a nucleotide imbalance in the meteoalphabetic teleconnection line (Allen Smithee, et al, 1978) has caused a negative 12-step (one step for each letter in the term 'Pacific Ocean') shift in that meteoalphabetic teleconnection, converting the usual and stable 'P' into a 'D'. Though the two letters rhyme with each other--they exist along the same meteoalphabetic teleconnection, and look similar if you squint, what with a vertical left line and a semi-circle on the right.) Now 'D is, as most people know, the first letter in the words 'drought', 'destruction', 'damage', and so on. I postulate, then, that the California drought is the byproduct of a temporary, cloud-based, nucleotide-driven, left-shifted anomaly in the meteoalphabetic teleconnection. (I'd also suggest renaming the ocean the "Dacific', but closed-minded people would likely not appreciate the genius behind that).

Again, I'm not sure why nobody is talking about this.



Careful. Someone will pull this out of context and take you seriously.

Years ago when I worked at a prominent research lab, I commented that the spring (of 1983) was so exceptionally
wet because latent heat flux from warm water had been newly incorporated into the LFM
forecast model of that time. They did not realize I was kidding and I got the "huum-ph
typical thinking of someone with only a Bachelor's degree" look. I sometimes think they
were surprised I could read, write and do simple sums.
BBC weather dedicated a video to Chapala:

Cyclone Chapala eyes Yemen
2 November 2015 Last updated at 13:41
Yemen braces for a powerful cyclone with hurricane force winds and life-threatening torrential rain.
BBC Weather's Ben Rich has the latest forecast.



From twitter.
Quoting 506. hydrus:

Gale for the lakes..


good need it too blow away all these leaves
LOL! Thanks for the laughs cytochromeC, here is a snippet from it:
"Things fall not because they are acted upon by some gravitational force, but because a higher intelligence, 'God' if you will, is pushing them down," said Gabriel Burdett, who holds degrees in education, applied Scripture, and physics from Oral Roberts University."
Quoting 543. cytochromeC:



Gravity? Probably a plot to sell more books and get grants.
Have you examined Intelligent Falling?

Link
Quoting 539. knightwarrior41:

it means no cooler weather for us in the deep south anytime soon.it sucks!
It looks like a lot of people really like cold weather, but I hate it and this is the main reason I live in South Florida. I wish it would stay like this year round, except we need the afternoon thunderstorms and hurricanes we get in the summer to make it a perfect environment.
From the last blog, this graphic indicates record warm or near record warm temperatures for the central Atlantic, I remember the MDR only being slightly above normal or normal during peak season this year, am I missing something?

Quoting 543. cytochromeC:



Gravity? Probably a plot to sell more books and get grants.
Have you examined Intelligent Falling?

Link
That's hilarious. And for those of you who are not accustomed to literal devices such as "irony", looking at you [redacted], the Onion specializes in "satire". Use the Google to research it.
Quoting 552. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

good need it too blow away all these leaves


The word usage is to, .. "to blow away"

"Too" means, Would you like to go too?

And "two"..means, 2'

REcess in 4 minutes ,too.
Quoting 547. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That's a good place for it to drop! Hopefully the whole San Joaquin Valley will get some! It's supposed to make it down to me tonight and tomorrow am.


I'm in Sonoma, and a gentle rain all night.
Lets hope the storms off the Pacific come this Winter and Spring, as current conditions suggest.
The most recent images of Chapala per RAMMB: will be interesting to see what happens in the "desert" downstream.  Current potential for flash flooding issues and then parts of the desert floor may bloom flowers in a few months like we have recently seen in parts of the SW Conus.

WILDFLOWER OVERVIEW

Oct 27, 2015 - Rain has fallen in most of the deserts in the southwest, this could be the foundation for a good wildflower season. A beautiful wildflower spring depends on the right amount of rain, in the right months and how fast the desert heats up. Some new reports below.




JeffMasters has created a new entry.
561. MahFL
Quoting 544. fmbill:


And that's the next part of the equation for Florida. After the winter 1997 flooding, and the worst tornado outbreak ever seen here occurred in Feb 1998, it stopped raining and didn't start again until the end of July. Fireworks, Daytona races, outdoor events were all cancelled because half the State was on fire. Worst wildfire season ever. Ugh!


1998 was the year I first flew over to FL to meet my future wife, I wondered what the heck I'd flown into, it was so hot/dry and smokey., white ash fell out of the sky like snow in July.
Quoting 559. weathermanwannabe:

The most recent images of Chapala per RAMMB: will be interesting to see what happens in the "desert" downstream.  Current potential for flash flooding issues and then parts of the desert floor may bloom flowers in a few months like we have recently seen in parts of the SW Conus.







If NHC was writing Chapala's advisories, I'd bet we'd see something like this after landfall:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.
Quoting 547. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That's a good place for it to drop! Hopefully the whole San Joaquin Valley will get some! It's supposed to make it down to me tonight and tomorrow am.


The forecast here has went from .01 to .10 Whoo-Hoo
Storm in Central Cal expected in Soo Cal this evening and overnight best chances for showers and Tuesday/Wed if a 2nd vort max does as forecast. One of these light/moderate storms a week would be nice to keep things moist until a possible unleashing of the big time rains of our current El Nino after the first of the year.

From NWS San Diego

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ELSEWHERE. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED AN INVERSION
AT AROUND 900 FEET ABOVE MSL....WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND
STRONGER ONSHORE...UP TO 7.5 MB ONSHORE FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH...WHEREAS IT WAS 2.7 MB OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CAN BE
SEEN APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND DRAG A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND...WITH GRADIENTS PEAKING AT AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO
TO LAS VEGAS TONIGHT. ALSO...850 MB WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40
KT AS WELL. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT WRF CROSS-SECTIONS...THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE THAT GETS INDUCED.
NEVERTHELESS...A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 10 AM THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT WINDY DESERT AREA LOCATIONS.
WITH THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BY SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT WRF AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE WARM WATERS...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
200-400 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2 DEG C. THUS...WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THAT TIME.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE NEVADA/UTAH
REGION...AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
TOWARDS THE LOCAL WRF...WHICH PAINTS HIGHER QPF IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THAT AREA. 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR
ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FOR
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST...0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY VALLEYS...0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...0.30 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND A TRACE TO 0.15 INCHES IN THE DESERTS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH...AROUND 8000-9000 FEET THIS
EVENING...AND THEN FALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DOWN TO
AROUND 6000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE MODEL PROGGED WET-BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR COMES IN...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THUS...AM NOT
ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT.

FINALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS FALLING TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE
NEARBY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

Quoting 563. PedleyCA:



The forecast here has went from .01 to .10 Whoo-Hoo


Yea........they calling for more down here.....It's wait and see time.......At least it helps keep the vegetation, chaparral and trees wet somewhat. At the same time, I hope the totals do rise. Mo is def better! And a bit windy if it verifies!
Quoting 523. Neapolitan:

Here's something none of the climate or weather "scientists" are talking about. I can't help but wonder why.


El Cajon Dam

Another HUGE dam was completed downstream of El Cajon in 2012. Do a google and follow El Cajon downstream and you can see it, and follow the rio grande de Santiago into the Gulf of California. This is an area which gets a lot of lightning still during the California 'rainy' season, and shifts in when water is captured instead of flows or released instead of not flowing, if what I am saying, would be the biological equivalent of snow in the mountains, and if the earth is alive you would expect warm feedbacks. What we have seen in fact is a persistent high pressure area. So what proof do I have that there is both feedbacks, that they are electrical in nature, and are intelligent. I do indeed go to life itself and its design as infallible proof. I am sorry it is confusing and complex, but there is a 1,200 year draught in California and I think its fully worthy of discussion WHY. Is there a connection, and if so, by what MECHANISM. Just from a common sense standpoint, human activity is reaching into larger scales of disruptive levels. So now in another basin, the Arabian Sea, huge mega dams in western India, Pakistan, and Tibet and drought in the Aral Sea area. Yes, questions of scale and complexity of the mechanism involved are indeed confusing and difficult.