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South Africa Sets Earth's Hottest October Temperature on Record: 119°F

By: Jeff Masters 2:33 PM GMT on October 29, 2015

Earth's hottest temperature ever recorded in the month of October occurred on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 in South Africa, when Vredendal hit a remarkable 48.4°C (119.1°F). According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is also the highest temperature ever observed at Vredendal and the third highest temperature in South African history. The new global October heat record was made possible by a "Berg wind"--a hot dry wind blowing down the Great Escarpment from the high central plateau to the coast. As the air descended it warmed via adiabatic compression, causing the record heat. These sorts of foehn winds are commonly responsible for all-time record temperatures; mainland Antarctica's all-time record high of 17.5°C (63.5°F), set on March 24, 2015, was due, in part, to a foehn wind (see wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt's blog post on this.)

According to Herrera, the previous world October heat record of 47.3°C was set at Campo Gallo, Argentina on 16 October 1936, and South Africa's highest reliable temperature for any month is 48.8°C (119.8°F), recorded at Vioosdrif in January 1993.


Figure 1. Five-minute resolution plot of the temperature at Vredendal, South Africa on October 27, 2015, when the station hit a remarkable 48.4°C (119.1°F)--an all-time record for the planet for the month of October. Image credit: South African Weather Service, with kudos to Gail Linnow.

Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Chapala a threat to Yemen and Oman
In the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Chapala has spun up to hurricane strength, with top winds of 75 mph estimated at 8 am EDT Thursday by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Chapala is expected to take advantage of low wind shear, warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F) and favorable upper-level outflow to intensify into a Category 4 storm by Sunday. Thereafter, weakening is likely as the storm encounters higher wind shear, lower oceanic heat content, and interaction with land. Chapala is likely to make landfall on Monday in a sparsely populated area near the border of Yemen and Oman.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the VIIRS instrument at 08:30 UTC October 29, 2015. At the time, Chapala was intensifying from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an a new Thursday afternoon post, Unseasonably Warm Weather Ahead – and More Rain. There's a super-cool 2-year+ animation of the change in sea surface height in the Pacific due to El Niño, check it out!

Jeff Masters

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tough start to the summer for South Africa. At this rate, I suppose that record set in January 1993 might be in jeopardy.
From the last blog:

Hurricane Chapala:



Seems to be increasing in size and has really good outflow. That will help it moisten the air ahead, so dry air shouldn't be a threat at the moment. Currently just 5-10kts of shear affecting the system, SSTs of 30-31C and plenty of moist air surrounding it. Perfect conditions for rapid intensification of the storm. Could become one of the strongest storms recorded in the Arabian Sea and possibly the strongest to make landfall in Yemen. Very dangerous situation, hopefully damage and loss of life will be minimal.


Also, I was in South Africa for 2 weeks a month ago - so glad I didn't go now, don't think I'd be able to handle that kind of heat! Also it's interesting how quickly the weather can change there in the spring. One day was 35C and the next 17C as a cold front came through (with a rather chilly night, cold enough that I needed a jumper!) when I was there. Beautiful country.
Quoting 2. Envoirment:

From the last blog:

Hurricane Chapala:



Seems to be increasing in size and has really good outflow. That will help it moisten the air ahead, so dry air shouldn't be a threat at the moment. Currently just 5-10kts of shear affecting the system, SSTs of 30-31C and plenty of moist air surrounding it. Perfect conditions for rapid intensification of the storm. Could become one of the strongest storms recorded in the Arabian Sea and possibly the strongest to make landfall in Yemen. Very dangerous situation, hopefully damage and loss of life will be minimal.


Also, I was in South Africa for 2 weeks a month ago - so glad I didn't go now, don't think I'd be able to handle that kind of heat! Also it's interesting how quickly the weather can change there in the spring. One day was 35C and the next 17C as a cold front came through (with a rather chilly night, cold enough that I needed a jumper!) when I was there. Beautiful country.



please fixs the top part where you have it has a hurricane there not called hurricanes back there they are called Cyclones
Are you guys sure that there is nothing going on near CV?
High resolution loop of Typhoon Champi from CIMSS...That Himawari-8 is superb ....

Quoting 4. Loduck:

Are you guys sure that there is nothing going on near CV?



yep where sure nothing is going on go injoy your day the CV season is done
hello you guys there not called hurricanes there not called typhoons they are called Cyclones back there
This would mean cold and stormy for a large part of the S.E.

Quoting 4. Loduck:

Are you guys sure that there is nothing going on near CV?


30kts of shear in the Atlantic MDR, so nothing tropical can form.
Quoting 9. MahFL:



30kts of shear in the Atlantic MDR, so nothing tropical can form.


Who knows...
11. JRRP
Thanks :)
Wow! 119 degrees in S. Africa in late October. That's like our late April, so I suspect there will be other high records yet to come.
Thank You Dr. While we have seen many effects related to climate change manifesting in the Arctic (glacial melt) and other portions of the Northern Hemisphere we have also seen several heat records broken in the Southern Hemisphere in recent years (heat waves in Brazil come to mind and now these heat records for South Africa).

While Arctic ice/glacial melt has been documented, the Antarctic has seen some ice rebound but some of that rebound is based on wind patterns which are possibly being impacted by Southern Hemisphere jet patterns. Just noting that South Africa is down in terms of latitudes but not immune from these recent heat issues.

Don't know from your post if the Berg Wind has any correlation to the jet stream pattern over the Antarctic or a Continental feature from over Africa.

SA has nothing on us Californians (Wikipedia):

134 degrees
The weather station at Furnace Creek in Death Valley where the hottest temperature ever recorded, a whopping 134 degrees Fahrenheit (56.7 degrees Celsius), was reached on July 10, 1913.

A ground temperature of 93.9C (201F) was recorded in Furnace Creek, Death Valley, California, USA on 15 July 1972; this may be the highest natural ground surface temperature ever recorded.

hard to imagine even 119.

The kids here in SoCal will be trick or treating without jackets this year as the forecast is high 80s due to Santa Ana winds, our version of the "berg winds". Usually we cool down by now but hasn't happened this year.
Quoting 13. RickWPB:

Wow! 119 degrees in S. Africa in late October. That's like our late April, so I suspect there will be other high records yet to come.


This heat is due to dynamics (downsloping wind). Of note, Brownsville TX also set its station max temperature record for any month in MARCH 1984 (i think March 30). 106F. That was also a downsloping situation from elevation to the west of the station.
Thanks dok!
2015 is set now to be even Warmer Globally than 2014, the Hottest year ever recorded.

Good times ahead, eh?

:)
Quoting 70. no1der:

On the Trail of the Arctic’s Carbon Time Bomb



'On A July afternoon in the eastern Siberian town of Cherskiy, 220 kilometres north of the Arctic circle, it is a warm 27 °C. The vista features silver-blue rivers bisecting green swathes of boreal forest – Earth’s biggest ecosystem. But drive a metal rod into the soil and roughly 75 centimetres below the surface you hit a layer that’s as hard as steel – and perhaps as dangerous as dynamite.
Arctic permafrost holds more than twice as much carbon in its frozen soil as Earth’s atmosphere. Which is what brings me here, accompanying seven US scientists from various labs, led by the Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts. We have travelled 7000 kilometres and 15 time zones to Cherskiy to study a phenomenon that might hasten the release of that carbon: the rise of Arctic wildfires. […]

Fires devour the organic layer of leaf litter and shrubs on the floor of boreal forests and tundra alike. As this layer offers insulation during the summer, burned sites could see an increase in the depth of the soil that thaws in summer, before refreezing in winter. More thawed soil could mean more microbial respiration of ancient Arctic carbon into the atmosphere, eventually turning the boreal forest from a carbon sink into a source."

*****
The Northeast Science Station at Cherskiy is on the Kolyma river, where some of the permafrost hasn't thawed at all in at least 30,000yr. This summer it was 27C there with wildfires, and methane bubbles in the wetlands.

Den of antiquity: Flower reanimated from 30,000yo seeds

"Russian scientists have resurrected a flowering plant from 30,000-year-old seeds found in an Ice Age squirrel’s treasure chamber in the Siberian permafrost.

Meet this extinct cave lion, at least 10,000 years old






Quoting 20. SouthTampa:

Please fix "fixs". That's not how you spell it.


Tazmanian is a bad speller. Don't worry about it.
Wow. Hottest October on Record... Not good.
It's a beautiful sunny day here in NE FL, but I did count no less than 23 discernible jet aircraft contrails. It's one of those days where they last for hours.
Some are visible on the sat pic in GA:

An interest discussion came up yesterday in Synoptic meteorology class yesterday. It was about cut-off systems. I am writing a paper or I am developing a hypothesis on how a warmer troposphere and surface temperatures leads to more cut-off Lows and Cut off Highs. I know Cut Off High Pressure Systems are RARE but they do occur mostly North of the Polar Front Jetstream. My contention and the basis of my paper is that Omega Blocking or Omega Blocking Patterns are going to be more common in a warming world. Lows that are cut-off from the normal westerly flow dig south and deepen, Highs to the East stay dominate, and Lows to the east of the Highs dig equatorward too and intensify, all the while there is an erratic Jetstream. Just a hypothesis on future climate no theory yet. The Jetstream has been erratic that last 3-5 years with undulations being the norm. Comments? Questions?
Current forecast look for Conus; nothing extreme out there but some heavy rain-winter precip on tap in the coming days (lows all over the place) for several regions:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 29 2015 - 12Z Sat Oct 31 2015

...Another heavy rainfall event expected for the Southern Plains...

...Persistent onshore flow will support heavy rain over the Pacific
Northwest...

...Cool and breezy conditions in store for northeastern corridor of the
U.S...


An active weather pattern to continue across the nation as a deep upper
low traverses the Great Lakes region. Cold and unstable air in association
with this feature will support a mixture of rain and snow showers across
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Any accumulations should remain minimal at
best. In addition to the threat for wintry precipitation, a strengthening
pressure gradient will bring cool and breezy conditions over much of the
northeastern U.S. However, the passage of the cold front will bring much
drier air toward the Eastern Seaboard as the shield of heavy rainfall
exists the coastline.




Quoting 20. SouthTampa:

Please fix "fixs". That's not how you spell it.



dont tell me what to do
25. WeatherConvoy
12:14 PM EDT on October 29, 2015

Sounds like a great topic; you will be reading several of the papers on this subject from recent years to support your hypothesis. My wife is an English Prof; make sure you properly cite all your source material in the footnotes and bibliography............... :)
30. JRRP
Quoting 23. MahFL:

It's a beautiful sunny day here in NE FL, but I did count no less than 23 discernible jet aircraft contrails. It's one of those days where they last for hours.
Some are visible on the sat pic in GA:




Is that what those are. I often wondered
Quoting 5. hydrus:

High resolution loop of Typhoon Champi from CIMSS...That Himawari-8 is superb ....




That is one of the most amazing loops of any storm of any type I have ever seen!
Quoting 15. canyonboy:

SA has nothing on us Californians (Wikipedia):

134 degrees
The weather station at Furnace Creek in Death Valley where the hottest temperature ever recorded, a whopping 134 degrees Fahrenheit (56.7 degrees Celsius), was reached on July 10, 1913.

A ground temperature of 93.9C (201F) was recorded in Furnace Creek, Death Valley, California, USA on 15 July 1972; this may be the highest natural ground surface temperature ever recorded.

hard to imagine even 119.

The kids here in SoCal will be trick or treating without jackets this year as the forecast is high 80s due to Santa Ana winds, our version of the "berg winds". Usually we cool down by now but hasn't happened this year.

One consideration is that Vredendal has a population of over 16K folks.. Death Valley doesn't even have 16K tumble weeds! Loved those SoCal Santa Ana winds though, used to head out to the San Gorgonio pass and hike up to the top of Windy Point and try not to get blown over... good times!
Department of energy come out today and said carved jack o' lanterns are a cause of global warming.I think we will be going back to stone age soon.
Quoting 29. Tazmanian:

guys for the last time un less you guys want too start a big old fight on here dont tell me how too spell thats one way in starting a fight on the blog is when you tell some one how too spell it is march better if you guys this went on your with ever day bloging and dont worry about it

i will keep on bloging the way i do it and you will keep on bloging the way you do it
So Taz how was your day man.
Quoting 34. help4u:

Department of energy come out today and said carved jack o' lanterns are a cause of global warming.I think we will be going back to stone age soon.


"Most of the 1.3 billion pounds of pumpkins produced in the U.S. end up in the trash, says the Energy Department’s website, becoming part of the “more than 254 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) produced in the United States every year.”

Municipal solid waste decomposes into methane, “a harmful greenhouse gas that plays a part in climate change, with more than 20 times the warming effect of carbon dioxide,” Energy says."

For someone who doesn't think global warming is real, you spend way too much time posting about it. #incoherence
Invest coming soon 12n 34w
Quoting 39. stoormfury:

Invest coming soon 12n 34w
Maybe. Any model support?
38. "#incoherence"
Insult. UNcalled for. Bet Watson flagged ya.
;)
Quoting 34. help4u:

Department of energy come out today and said carved jack o' lanterns are a cause of global warming.I think we will be going back to stone age soon.
Not to worry. AI Watson will get us before global warming does.
;)
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters.....
Quoting 35. Andrebrooks:

So Taz how was your day man.


been doing vary well going too be getting me a high end HP laptop vary soon in early NOV that will back light key board wish will be a major pluse for me has i like working on my laptop in the dark in the room in the early AM hrs when we get strong winter storms i like waking up at 5am i been saving my $ up the last few weeks
Quoting 39. stoormfury:

Invest coming soon 12n 34w


nop


do you guy ever look at wind shear maps




the window for this is is closeing has it will be runing in too 40kt of shear or higher
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
17:30 PM IST October 29 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Chapala over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards with a speed of about 12 km/h during past 6 hours and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. The severe cyclonic storm lays centered near 14.1N 63.3E, about 1150 km west southwest of Mumbai and about 1040 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move west northwestwards and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It would cross northern Yemen and adjoining Oman coast as a very severe cyclonic storm between 15.0N and 17.0N around 1800 UTC on November 2nd.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T3.5. Associated low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convective clouds at many places over area between 12.0N to 17.0N and 60.0E to 66.0E. The minimum cloud top temperature around the system center is about -89C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The estimated central pressure of the tropical cyclone is 992 hPa. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system.


Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 14.4N 62.3E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.5N 61.3E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.2N 58.6E - 90-95 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.3N 55.7E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
==============
The convection increased in past 12 hours with increase in convective bonding around the center. The winds are higher over the northeastern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 30C. The ocean thermal energy is about 50-75 kj/cm2 to the east and north of the system center. It gradually decreases westward and is about 15-35 kj/cm2 west of 60.0E. The vertical wind shear is about 10-15 knots around the system center. The low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours and low level convergence remains the same. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 15.0N. There is another anti-cyclonic circulation to the northwest of the system center and the cyclonic storm lies in the southeastern periphery of this anticyclone. It is helping in increasing more westward component in the movement of the system. The Madden Jullian Oscillation index lies in phase 2 with amplitude greater than 2 and it would continue to remain in same phase with similar amplitude for next 5 days. It is highly favorable for intensification of the system. As the system would move closer to Yemen and adjoining Oman coasts, it would experience lower ocean thermal energy as well as intrusion of dry air from northwest. As a result, there is possibility of slight weakening of the system over the sea before the landfall.
49. JRRP
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become highly unfavorable for
development while the system moves westward near 15 mph over the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become highly unfavorable for
development while the system moves westward near 15 mph over the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Pasch
54. JRRP
Quoting 49. JRRP:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become highly unfavorable for
development while the system moves westward near 15 mph over the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent


Nice day on tap today in Soo Cal........with Santa Ana winds forecast for tonight....currently 63 degrees.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 29 Oct 10:39 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 29 Oct 10:30 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
29 Oct 10:30 am PDT 63 43 48 NNW 7G12 OK
Quoting 54. JRRP:



Why mention the area then?
Quoting 57. Gearsts:

Why mention the area then?
yeah that's kind of silly 0 probabilities means zero.that it wont develop
I can think of a reason: so the people who love to gripe won't do it about the NHC "ignoring that obvious threat out there".

You know the NHC can't win.
Quoting 58. knightwarrior41:

yeah that's kind of silly 0 probabilities means zero.that it wont develop


Not that it's a whole lot different, but it's not "0". It's "NEAR 0" percent.
I see that the janitor dropped in while I was away...

Tides are still flooding streets in the Lower Keys and Key West on a daily basis. They have been running a foot or so above forecast highs for over a month and our low tides are nonexistent.

Added from our local weather page:

".. Minor coastal flooding of low-lying areas at high tide...

* coastal flooding... higher than predicted tidal levels in
combination with full moon Spring tides will lead to minor coastal
flooding of low-lying areas in the Florida Keys... mainly during
the higher high tide tonight.

* Timing... water levels will peak during the higher high tide between
about 1000 PM and 300 am tonight.

* Impacts... the primary hazard will be saltwater flooding of the
lowest elevation streets. Some storm drains will overflow...
and some docks and seawalls will be over-topped.


Kasper"
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin Description
20:30 PM IST October 29 2015
==================================

Vortex (CHAPALA) over east central and adjoining west central Arabian Sea now lays center near 14.3N 62.7E.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Chapala will be upgrade to a "very severe cyclonic storm" by IMD.
0z CMC


0z NAVGEM


12z GFS shows something trying to develop in a couple of weeks. Not sure if it's part of that current invest or not.

Quoting 64. fmbill:

0z CMC


0z NAVGEM



so it has 2 model support,maybe thats why they are marking it then,maybe
Quoting 65. fmbill:

12z GFS shows something trying to develop in a couple of weeks. Not sure if it's part of that current invest or not.




Too far out. Wouldn't trust it
Quoting 68. FunnelVortex:



Too far out. Wouldn't trust it


Agreed.
Quoting 67. fmbill:


i see some rotation with it too,thanks for this image
Did someone say hostile environment? Wow!

Quoting 71. fmbill:

Did someone say hostile environment? Wow!


its pretty late in the season and moreso in an el super el nino environment
Quite the difference one week does for the entire south. A quarter of the area was under extreme drought and it's now gone. :)

Didn't expect these pictures to use up so much space.
Quoting 25. WeatherConvoy:

An interest discussion came up yesterday in Synoptic meteorology class yesterday. It was about cut-off systems. I am writing a paper or I am developing a hypothesis on how a warmer troposphere and surface temperatures leads to more cut-off Lows and Cut off Highs. I know Cut Off High Pressure Systems are RARE but they do occur mostly North of the Polar Front Jetstream. My contention and the basis of my paper is that Omega Blocking or Omega Blocking Patterns are going to be more common in a warming world. Lows that are cut-off from the normal westerly flow dig south and deepen, Highs to the East stay dominate, and Lows to the east of the Highs dig equatorward too and intensify, all the while there is an erratic Jetstream. Just a hypothesis on future climate no theory yet. The Jetstream has been erratic that last 3-5 years with undulations being the norm. Comments? Questions?



Just one dissent. Cutoff highs are common in upper midlatitudes and high latitudes. Most blocking is associated with them and blocking itself is common.
Quoting 38. Naga5000:



"Most of the 1.3 billion pounds of pumpkins produced in the U.S. end up in the trash, says the Energy Department’s website, becoming part of the “more than 254 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) produced in the United States every year.”

Municipal solid waste decomposes into methane, “a harmful greenhouse gas that plays a part in climate change, with more than 20 times the warming effect of carbon dioxide,” Energy says."

For someone who doesn't think global warming is real, you spend way too much time posting about it. #incoherence



I compost mine. But the volume of food waste is much higher than the volume of pumpkins over the course of a month and food waste is hazardous to compost in urban and suburban locations unless done in an animal proof container. Otherwise it attracts rats. (Not in my yard.. my two cats would take care of that )
76. JRRP
Quoting 25. WeatherConvoy:

An interest discussion came up yesterday in Synoptic meteorology class yesterday. It was about cut-off systems. I am writing a paper or I am developing a hypothesis on how a warmer troposphere and surface temperatures leads to more cut-off Lows and Cut off Highs. I know Cut Off High Pressure Systems are RARE but they do occur mostly North of the Polar Front Jetstream. My contention and the basis of my paper is that Omega Blocking or Omega Blocking Patterns are going to be more common in a warming world. Lows that are cut-off from the normal westerly flow dig south and deepen, Highs to the East stay dominate, and Lows to the east of the Highs dig equatorward too and intensify, all the while there is an erratic Jetstream. Just a hypothesis on future climate no theory yet. The Jetstream has been erratic that last 3-5 years with undulations being the norm. Comments? Questions?



Which text is being used in your Synoptic class? Mid-latitude Synoptic Meteorology by Gary Lackmann? I recall there was a light discussion about this when I was in Mid-latitude SM back in the early 1990's at Texas A&M. Professor Dusan Djuric instructed the class. He has some publications (I believe they are referenced in that text mentioned above) regarding cut off systems. That could be a useful resource if you are looking around.
Quoting 74. georgevandenberghe:



Just one dissent. Cutoff highs are common in upper midlatitudes and high latitudes. Most blocking is associated with them and blocking itself is common.
I read somewhere (an academic paper) that there was no clear definition of when blocking is occurring. There are indices but those are fuzzy. If you can't accurately measure when blocking is occurring, how do you study it?

Edit: Is blocking a real thing or just a term we throw around?
Quoting 18. Patrap:

2015 is set now to be even Warmer Globally than 2014, the Hottest year ever recorded.

Good times ahead, eh?

:)


It will likely be the hottest for only one year. The 2016 record may last for a few more.
Quoting 57. Gearsts:

Why mention the area then?
I imagine that it's just recognition a low exists there. The probability of development is near zero, but it's in a place that the NHC will still keep an eye on until it dissipates. There's not much else to do right now either. :-)


How Indonesia’s fires made it the biggest climate polluter

Indonesia’s forest fires have catapulted the southeast Asian nation to the top of the rankings of the world’s worst global warming offenders, with daily emissions exceeding those of China on at least 14 days in the past two months.

The nation’s total daily carbon dioxide emissions, including from power generation, transport and industry, exceeded those of the U.S. on 47 of the 74 days through October 28, according to Bloomberg analysis of national emissions data from the World Resources Institute in Washington and Indonesian fire- emissions data from VU University in Amsterdam.


Read more: Link
Quoting 16. georgevandenberghe:



This heat is due to dynamics (downsloping wind). Of note, Brownsville TX also set its station max temperature record for any month in MARCH 1984 (i think March 30). 106F. That was also a downsloping situation from elevation to the west of the station.

Downtown Los Angeles hit 113 on September 27, 2010, the highest temperature ever recorded. It may have gone even higher except that the the thermometer quit working at 12:15 pm. There was still about three hours of heating left, and the NWS estimates the actual high was between 115 and 116. This was during a Santa Ana. Downslope winds can cause an amazing amount of heating and drying. The humidity when it hit 113 was 11%. Yuck!
Quoting 422. MahFL:



30kts of shear means nothing will form tropically from that wave.


I stated it was a robust wave for the end of November. Never did I mention a chance of it developing.
i cant believe how hot it is in Cayman and the lack of daytime showers and clouds......its pretty scary and generally not very nice to live in at times.....this is when we used to get heavy rains fingers crossed we may get a rain event before it gets even drier!
@25

At one time the idea that the jet stream progressed from a state of high zonal flow to lower and lower zonal flow ending with cut off lows (and highs?) and a return to high zonal flow seemed like an established idea. Later it was realized that the data did not really support the idea. The idea of blocking goes back to this same time frame. I am skeptical of this descriptive concept.

I think difficulties with the concept could in some ways be similar to the difficulties people have with the concept of heat. Thermodynamics has a very particular definition of what heat is, and that definition is only loosely related to how we use the word heat in everyday conversations. I've even seen one of the featured bloggers on here stumble all around the room (figuratively speaking) trying to talk about heat and cooling. I think the term "blocking" deserves some caution.
Quoting 76. JRRP:


Ay bendita.
rain is a beautiful thing.....and probably too much of it is better than not enough of it?
Sort of like cold versus hot......you can always keep adding layers to stay warm....you cant go any deeper than your skin......in other words cold and rain are better in extremes than hot and dry.....

Quoting 73. SouthCentralTx:

Quite the difference one week does for the entire south. A quarter of the area was under extreme drought and it's now gone. :)

Didn't expect these pictures to use up so much space.

Quoting 64. fmbill:

0z CMC


0z NAVGEM



Nothing can cross that wind shear shield.
Quoting 79. georgevandenberghe:



It will likely be the hottest for only one year. The 2016 record may last for a few more.

Probably not, where do you get your info from on next years temps.
Quoting 84. 19N81W:

i cant believe how hot it is in Cayman and the lack of daytime showers and clouds......its pretty scary and generally not very nice to live in at times.....this is when we used to get heavy rains fingers crossed we may get a rain event before it gets even drier!
Is it usually hotter and drier, in the Nino years, especially Super Nino years
Probably just guesstimating given it seems to be getting hotter

Quoting 89. NativeSun:

Probably not, where do you get your info from on next years temps.
Quoting 89. NativeSun:

Probably not, where do you get your info from on next years temps.


Atmospheric temperature anomalies lag El Nino and the current El Nino is likely to boost temperatures most
strongly in 2016 creating a maximum likely not exceeded for a few years thereafter as happened in 1998. Unlike 1998 though the PDO is in its positive phase.. this is likely to last for decades and positive PDO is associated with more rapid atmospheric warming and negative (as happened mid 90s to 2014) with less rapid warming or even cooling as happened with the negative phase in the 1950s-mid 70s.

ya we have succumbed to this depressing fact and for lack of a better word it sucks.
It may seem like nothing but a downer from me but its taking its toll on things....especially the reefs here especially the shallow ones.....they look awful...the tides have been very high which has caused beach erosion in places and the seaweed is so thick you cant use the beach in many locations. Just been a nasty last few months....
Quoting 90. NativeSun:

Is it usually hotter and drier, in the Nino years, especially Super Nino years
The Berg is not a Foehn wind, but a katabatic wind. LIke the Santa Ana.
95. N3EG
Quoting 82. sar2401:

Downtown Los Angeles hit 113 on September 27, 2010, the highest temperature ever recorded. It may have gone even higher except that the the thermometer quit working at 12:15 pm. There was still about three hours of heating left, and the NWS estimates the actual high was between 115 and 116. This was during a Santa Ana. Downslope winds can cause an amazing amount of heating and drying. The humidity when it hit 113 was 11%. Yuck!

I remember going for a long bike ride in the early 1980s when a Santa Ana caused Burbank to hit 114. That was fun.
Did someone from Guadalajara get to name that cyclone in the Arabian Sea, or is Chapala coincidentally a name in Hindi/Urdu/Arabic?
Quoting 87. 19N81W:

rain is a beautiful thing.....and probably too much of it is better than not enough of it?
Sort of like cold versus hot......you can always keep adding layers to stay warm....you cant go any deeper than your skin......in other words cold and rain are better in extremes than hot and dry.....




Yeah, Texas is either in a drought or they are having floods. There's not much in between. I lived in the Texas Hill Country just north of San Antonio for about 6 years. I saw some pretty epic floods when I was there. We don't see anything like that here in S.W. Florida due to the flat topography and sandy soil.
When it is that hot, the wind does not cool you off. A few years ago in SC we hit 110 and I was cruising around in the Jeep. The faster I went, the hotter it got. More like a blow dryer than a cooling breeze.

Riding a bike on black top in that kind of heat would be brutal. You have to worry about your tires melting or wiping out because they get too soft.

Quoting 95. N3EG:


I remember going for a long bike ride in the early 1980s when a Santa Ana caused Burbank to hit 114. That was fun.
Climate change is doing some very strange things to the waters off New England

A new scientific study says that extremely rapidly warming waters off the New England coast have had a severe consequence — the collapse of a cod fishery that saw too many catches even as overall cod numbers declined due to warmer seas.

It’s just the latest in a series of findings and occurrences — ranging from gigantic snows in Boston earlier last winter, which scientists partly linked with warm seas, to a sudden and “extreme” sea level rise event in 2009-2010 — suggesting that this particular stretch of water is undergoing profound changes.

“2004 to 2013, we ended up warming faster than really any other marine ecosystem has ever experienced over a 10 year period,” says Andrew Pershing of the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, lead author of the new study just out in the journal Science. Pershing conducted the work with researchers from his institution and several others in the U.S. including NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., and Stony Brook University in New York.

The paper reports that during the decade-long period in question, the Gulf of Maine, the ocean region extending from Cape Cod northeast to the southern tip of Nova Scotia, warmed up by a truly stunning 0.23 degrees Celsius per year (0.41 degrees Fahrenheit). That’s faster warming than occurred in 99.9 percent of the rest of the world ocean, the scientists say.

more,...
I've been posting this between blog fights for the past 4 days. :)


12z CMC refuses to give up on it.

Quoting 96. BayFog:

Did someone from Guadalajara get to name that cyclone in the Arabian Sea, or is Chapala coincidentally a name in Hindi/Urdu/Arabic?


boy/girl name website states that...Chapala is a Hindi/Sanskrit name meaning "Quick, Restless, Lightning", It is a girl's name.

IMD says it was contributed by Bangladesh and is pronounced as "Cho po la".
HadesGodWyvern beat me to it.
RapidSCAT showing a weak closed low near 12N 34 W with 30 knots wind to the northest and west of the low.
105. SLU
Quoting 23. MahFL:

It's a beautiful sunny day here in NE FL, but I did count no less than 23 discernible jet aircraft contrails. It's one of those days where they last for hours.
Some are visible on the sat pic in GA:




Yes it's just one of those days.

Could also lead to some people finding their boats , especially the back country hulls, underwater in the morning unless they compensated accordingly with their mooring lines. (I speak from personal experience) :-(

Quoting 62. ChillinInTheKeys:

I see that the janitor dropped in while I was away...

Tides are still flooding streets in the Lower Keys and Key West on a daily basis. They have been running a foot or so above forecast highs for over a month and our low tides are nonexistent.

Added from our local weather page:

".. Minor coastal flooding of low-lying areas at high tide...

* coastal flooding... higher than predicted tidal levels in
combination with full moon Spring tides will lead to minor coastal
flooding of low-lying areas in the Florida Keys... mainly during
the higher high tide tonight.

* Timing... water levels will peak during the higher high tide between
about 1000 PM and 300 am tonight.

* Impacts... the primary hazard will be saltwater flooding of the
lowest elevation streets. Some storm drains will overflow...
and some docks and seawalls will be over-topped.


Kasper"

Reminder.
Quoting 100. Grothar:

I've been posting this between blog fights for the past 4 days. :)



On October 27, 1867 a TS formed east of the Leeward island, moved towards Aguilla and Sombrero, becoming a hurricane before land falling over this island, pressure was estimated 28.65 inches of mercury. Moving towards the west, becoming a mayor hurricane before hitting St. Thomas Danish Virgin Island back then. After that it moved over Puerto Rico a day like today, on October 29, 1867 following the Puertorican tradition to name storms after the feast of the Saint of the day, it was name after San Narsisus of Jerusalem. It caused 816 death in St. Thomas, and 211 death in Puerto Rico, weakening and dissipating over the mountains of Puerto Rico, much likely stalled over the island becoming a TD. Consider one of the strongest to hit Puerto Rico. Measures were done by tons. Peak intensity 110,000 kilotons,125mph. Rain reached the City of Santo Domingo, DR. , on October 30, were more than 200 drowned by the floods...
Chapala up to 75kts:

04A CHAPALA 151029 1800 14.3N 62.3E IO 75 967

Too much shear, dry air, stable conditions.


Tipping Point Nears for ‘Emerging Flooding Crisis’

Soggy times are coming for cities along both U.S. coasts and they’ll be here much quicker than previously thought. By mid-century, sea level rise is set to make floods a monthly occurrence in more than two dozen major cities, and in some of those cities, it could become a daily occurrence by the 2070s.

The watery findings come from a new study published Thursday and presented at the American Geophysical Union meeting. It builds on findings earlier this year from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists that show sea level rise tipping points are just a few decades away for the majority of the cities they looked at.

Flooding has already become 10 times more likely in Baltimore and Honolulu and five times more likely in Philadelphia, Norfolk, Va., and Charleston, S.C., since 1930. That’s in large part because since the start of the 20th century, sea levels have risen by about 8 inches globally due to human greenhouse gas emissions that have caused oceans to warm and land ice to melt, swelling the seas.

“It’s an emerging flooding crisis,” William Sweet, an oceanographer with NOAA who led the new report, said.


Link
Kit Kats are not a meal.
Quoting 112. ColoradoBob1:

Tipping Point Nears for ‘Emerging Flooding Crisis’



Wow, I guess if your talking about Climate Change, its de rigueur to use the term 'tipping point'.

Followed the links, don't have time to read the full report. I suppose it past my conscience's 'tipping point' of reading at work? ;)

The definition of 'tipping point' here is, "We introduce the concept of a tipping point for impacts from future coastal inundation when critical elevation thresholds for various public works or coastal ecosystem habitats may become increasingly compromised by increasingly severe tidal flooding [Groffman et al., 2006]. Using NOAA NWS elevation thresholds and future median values of local RSLR projections of Kopp et al. [2014], we find that the majority of locations surpass a 30 days/year tipping point by 2050..."
Alarmist….
Quoting 113. Patrap:

Kit Kats are not a meal.


Tell that to a college student. Anything edible can be a meal. :-)
Another warm, dry month to come after record hot October for Australia

Climate change behind record warmth
Australia's firefighters may be in for a tough summer with conditions that led to record heat in October likely to linger into a warmer and drier than average November and beyond, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
With a couple of days to go, October is heading towards record warmth nationally, with cities such as Melbourne likely to set a new record by some measure, Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services for the bureau, said. (See the bureau's chart for the first 26 days of October below:)

Link
Quoting 115. luvtogolf:

Alarmist….




Thousands homeless as El Nino floods sweep Somalia

NAIROBI, Oct 28 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Flash floods in Somalia have destroyed thousands of makeshift homes, as well as latrines and shallow wells, the United Nations said, predicting that up to 900,000 people could be hit by the strongest El Nino weather phenomenon in decades.

The floods, which have made roads impassable and cut thousands off from aid, could reverse many of the humanitarian gains made in southern Somalia since 2011 when the Horn of Africa nation was devastated by famine, experts say.

Some 3.2 million Somalis — one-third of the population –already needed life-saving aid and over one million were internally displaced before the rains began on Oct. 7.


Link
Quoting 113. Patrap:

Kit Kats are not a meal.
Would Milky Way Vodka qualify? :) Liked the Trav Wilburys earlier btw.

ILwthr stated in previous blog (& long range forecasts match) that El Nino winters in IL usually are wet, less snow, above avg temps. Saw a segment on StL TV last night showing the persimmon seeds are spoons, which should indicate snowy, cold winter. Should be forks if typical El Nino. Never want to see knives, ice. Will have to head out to farm and collect a few to see if match StL area. Will report back later.

Didn't get above 50 today even w/ sun in S C IL. Dew pts in mid 30s. Little lighter W winds today, though still show a 25 gust. Press up to 29.9s and another slightly above freezing low tonight. Had .8" total w/ another spell coming on Halloween, so finally some measurable precip in Oct. Supposed to be warm up into mid week. Have good evening bloggers!


– Anthropogenic Acid Rain

Researchers link crayfish decline in Algonquin Park lakes to lack of calcium
October 28, 2015


Researchers from Queen’s University, working with colleagues from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, have linked the localized near-extinction of a native crayfish species in four lakes in Algonquin Park to declining calcium levels, a long-term legacy of acid rain on forest soils and aquatic ecosystems.

Read more at: Link
Quoting 118. ColoradoBob1:





Thousands homeless as El Nino floods sweep Somalia

NAIROBI, Oct 28 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) %u2013 Flash floods in Somalia have destroyed thousands of makeshift homes, as well as latrines and shallow wells, the United Nations said, predicting that up to 900,000 people could be hit by the strongest El Nino weather phenomenon in decades.

The floods, which have made roads impassable and cut thousands off from aid, could reverse many of the humanitarian gains made in southern Somalia since 2011 when the Horn of Africa nation was devastated by famine, experts say.

Some 3.2 million Somalis %u2014 one-third of the population %u2013already needed life-saving aid and over one million were internally displaced before the rains began on Oct. 7.


Link



Alarmist? World is groaning. Refugees on a level never seen are on the move. World is at a loss with how to respond. Lot related to instability in Syria and Iraq, but many, such as in Somalia, are on the move due to AGW and a near record El-Nino. Famine plus floods equals fleeing to Yemen. That's not an escape. It's running with no thought except escape from a situation that's not survivable. Faster and faster now as Keep would put it. This is going to have a huge humanity and economic impact in the coming years. USA needs to be the world leader we've always been and stop the blithering lead from behind. We are the leaders in strength in the world, we must act so. It's a huge ask, but if not us whom? We don't want Iran and Russia to control Syria and Iraq. Iraq is Iran now. Shia dominated and brothers in arms. If we allow Russia and Iran to bridge the gap in Iraq and Syria, we will have lost so much. Those who gave their all and the American tax payer deserves much better. I don't care if your Republican or Democrat. I want someone with a real plan. We are the junior varsity right now. CB is no alarmist. Keep dropping that hard truth Bob.
Quoting 115. luvtogolf:

Alarmist….

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet doesn't care if you luv golf.
Quoting 116. Astrometeor:



Tell that to a college student. Anything edible can be a meal. :-)


It fits in the student four food groups, salt, fat, sugar, and caffeine

But seriously, nutrition is important as a student and I suspect dorm food is balanced if you make the right choices. At least it was in the late 70s at VPI and later at PSU. You can't tell when your thinking is compromised by poor nutrition unless it's really grossly bad.

Quoting 55. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Nice day on tap today in Soo Cal........with Santa Ana winds forecast for tonight....currently 63 degrees.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 29 Oct 10:39 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 29 Oct 10:30 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
29 Oct 10:30 am PDT 63 43 48 NNW 7G12 OK


Beautiful day, methinks a few golf balls need losing. Interesting how the deserts are cooler than the coasts during the Santa Ana winds.
Quoting 123. georgevandenberghe:



It fits in the student four food groups, salt, fat, sugar, and caffeine

But seriously, nutrition is important as a student and I suspect dorm food is balanced if you make the right choices. At least it was in the late 70s at VPI and later at PSU. You can't tell when your thinking is compromised by poor nutrition unless it's really grossly bad.




You forgot alcohol.
Quoting 109. Envoirment:

Chapala up to 75kts:

04A CHAPALA 151029 1800 14.3N 62.3E IO 75 967




Cat 4 tomorrow at this time. Maybe earlier.
I love blobs

121. DeepSeaRising

What's been happening in West Africa lately is of real concern. The sharp lines are really in play . Drought in Ethiopia. Floods to the North , Alexandria just got 5 times the amount of rain in the month of October in 2 days. The new governor resigned.
The South coast of Turkey got 8 inches of rain in 2 days.
Thousands without power in Israel, Baghdad had people wading in knee deep water.

Is all this grief going to make matters better ? There's a tent city South of Baghdad full of displaced people, in tens of thousands. The water there up to their knees.

Anyone who thinks they have seen all these events at the same time before, has the cognitive skills of a lizard.
Quoting 125. canyonboy:



You forgot alcohol.


And Ramen Noodles
Quoting 128. ColoradoBob1:

121. DeepSeaRising

What's been happening in West Africa lately is of real concern. The sharp lines are really in play . Drought in Ethiopia. Floods to the North , Alexandria just got 5 times the amount of rain in the month of October in 2 days. The new governor resigned.
The South coast of Turkey got 8 inches of rain in 2 days.
Thousands without power in Israel, Baghdad had people wading in knee deep water.

Is all this grief going to make matters better ? There's a tent city South of Baghdad full of displaced people, in tens of thousands. The water there up to their knees.

Anyone who thinks they have seen all these events at the same time before, has the cognitive skills of a lizard.


We are at a breaking point with winter coming soon to Europe and UN camps stressed to their max. We must secure Syria and Iraq from ISIS and allow for tens of millions to return. If we do not, then we will reap great upheaval and the set up for a possible wider conflict with war against Iran and Russia. We are at the cusp of a geopolitical situation that no one in power has any idea how to answer. Russia has no end game, we have no end game; this situation does not fix itself. May see over a million refugees die in the next two years. This is an all time refugee crisis. We need answers.
BREAKING: Hillary Clinton Endorses Federal Investigation Of Exxon


Link
Noodles were the saving grace in college for me xD.During my freshman year we couldn't drive and there were no real large super markets near by (This was before the Boom of Walmart)
Quoting 127. Grothar:

I love blobs




Personally, when Gro starts posting "our blobs" I get a little....well, my morning coffee... I just don't enjoy it as much as I usually do, until everything clears up. ;-)
Quoting 130. DeepSeaRising:



We are at a breaking point with winter coming soon to Europe and UN camps stressed to their max. We must secure Syria and Iraq from ISIS and allow for tens of millions to return. If we do not, then we will reap great upheaval and the set up for a possible wider conflict with war against Iran and Russia. We are at the cusp of a geopolitical situation that no one in power has any idea how to answer. Russia has no end game, we have no end game; this situation does not fix itself. May see over a million refugees die in the next two years. This is an all time refugee crisis. We need answers.


And what the golfing lizard brained people don't know is these same forces are driving tens of thousands of people off the land way South of us, because of drought. And they are not from Mexico.
Climate Change just the ballot.


BREAKING: Hillary Clinton Endorses Federal Investigation Of Exxon

Link
Climate Change just got on the ballot.
Quoting 132. washingtonian115:

Noodles were the saving grace in college for me xD.During my freshman year we couldn't drive and there were no real large super markets near by (This was before the Boom of Walmart)
May I ask what type?
140. beell
How IBM’s Deep Thunder delivers “hyper-local” forecasts 3-1/2 days out-arstechnica/Mar 14, 2012

A flurry of press releases and articles in 2010-2012 expounding on the possibilities and benefits of IBM's Deep Thunder then...nothing, nada, zippo, zot, zip, zilch, bupkis, squat, diddly, and jack squat...

Maybe a lack of sensors or poor verification or both?

Clinton -

Who cares what she’s up to , the subject is now front and center. and these people that found out Exxon, aren’t going to lay down. The email worm has turned.
Quoting 120. ColoradoBob1:



– Anthropogenic Acid Rain

Researchers link crayfish decline in Algonquin Park lakes to lack of calcium
October 28, 2015


Researchers from Queen’s University, working with colleagues from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, have linked the localized near-extinction of a native crayfish species in four lakes in Algonquin Park to declining calcium levels, a long-term legacy of acid rain on forest soils and aquatic ecosystems.

Read more at: Link


Algonquin is downwind ,from Sudbury
143. 882MB
Hey everyone, I think this might end up being another record setter for 2015 in number of CAT 5's. This cyclone sure has everything it needs to be a CAT 5, and I wont be surprise if it makes it to that status, IMHO.

Quoting 138. Climate175:

May I ask what type?
Chicken flavored but I got tired of that flavor so I tried Mushroom and spicy shrimp.
RSMC New Delphi Advanced Dvorak Technique
System: ARB04 (CHAPALA)

2015OCT29 233000 4.7 961.2 +0.0 82.2 4.7 4.7 6.4 MW ON OFF OFF -26.43 -75.83 EYE/P -99 IR 34.0 14.18 -61.85

a pinhole eye scene statement.
Quoting 142. TroutMadness:


Algonquin is downwind ,from Sudbury


That's really nice to know , your comment means nothing.
143. 882MB
Looks to be going annular.Seems like its going to be the 15,000th cat 5 of the year.(I've lost count of how many 2015 has produced)
148. 882MB
Quoting 147. washingtonian115:

143. 882MB
Looks to be going annular.Seems like its going to be the 15,000th cat 5 of the year.(I've lost count of how many 2015 has produced)


Truly it does seem like that high number of CAT 5's, but what a year it has been, no doubt. Hopefully this is not a sign of things to come. Sometimes I wonder what our grandchildren's children will see, if mother nature keeps behaving like this.
Quoting 147. washingtonian115:

143. 882MB
Looks to be going annular.Seems like its going to be the 15,000th cat 5 of the year.(I've lost count of how many 2015 has produced)


Very symmetric indead. Eye is so small it won't show up on this current loop.
Quoting 143. 882MB:

Hey everyone, I think this might end up being another record setter, for 2015 in number of CAT 5's. This cyclone sure has everything it needs to be a CAT 5, and I wont be surprise if it makes it to that status, IMHO.



Seems unlikely given the abundance of exceedingly dry air in the region. The forecast has it getting to 132 mph, which is pretty respectable for this area.
152. 882MB
Quoting 151. BayFog:


Seems unlikely given the abundance of exceedingly dry air in the region. The forecast has it getting to 132 mph, which is pretty respectable for this area.


Your right about the dry air in that part of the world buddy, but waters are warm enough, low shear, and its a small cyclone which gives it the chance to strengthen more then anticipated, IMO.
Quoting 143. 882MB:

Hey everyone, I think this might end up being another record setter, for 2015 in number of CAT 5's. This cyclone sure has everything it needs to be a CAT 5, and I wont be surprise if it makes it to that status, IMHO.




With these features seen in satellite images, I'm beginning to think that "Gonu" ever could be smashed by "Chapala".
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
241 PM PDT THU OCT 29 2015

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE STATE. BY SUNDAY A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
TROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA SOUTH ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH.
COOL CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
Quoting 146. ColoradoBob1:



That's really nice to know , your comment means nothing.
Sudbury is the location of one of the world's largest copper smelters and a major polluter as the fumes waft downwind. However, I think it's less CO2 and more like copper oxide and other nasties.
Link Long time lurker. Old time poster.

I would like to talk about the electrical complexity of Chapala.



Very interesting airmass picture of the North Atlantic and Europe right now. However deep low Xandre in the North Atlantic would only bother Iceland with strong winds and rain. Cut-off circulation in the Mediterranean dumps a lot of rain on that region.





SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION from Estofex
A large high pressure system builds over most of Europe, with a center over Germany at 500 hPa and over the Baltic States closer to the surface. Only NW Iberia, the British Isles and Norway are grazed by a strengthening SW-erly flow ahead of an Atlantic trough, which advects partly moist but stably stratified air. Convection-wise, the only feature of interest is a small and stationary cut-off low over Sicily.

Indeed: Central and Eastern Europe is looking forward to a very dry period of weather. See all the red anomaly (lack of rain) in the last map.



Below a video from German wetteronline.de about very low water-levels in German rivers (here: Rhine) which hampers riverine traffic. Some very good soaking is needed to achieve a change for the better - but nothing in the outlook far into November. Although some regions in Germany got some good rains weeks earlier, for my region mid Germany 2015 may become a record dry year I guess.


Quoting 156. MichaelDoran:

Long time lurker. Old time poster.

I would like to talk about the electrical complexity of Chapala.


Well welcome to Wunderground. I'm Andre Brooks and it's nice to meet you. If you need anything. Just let us know. And have fun.
Mmmm I'm curious..Why do people need to mention that they are lurkers?
Quoting 162. washingtonian115:

Mmmm I'm curious..Why do people need to mention that they are lurkers?


Only "The Shadow" knows.
Chapala up to 95kts:

04A CHAPALA 151030 0000 14.2N 61.8E IO 95 952

Eye is starting to clear out, will likely become a category 4 and possibly a category 5 tomorrow.

Someone at PSU has a sense of Halloween humor.


There was an extraordinary level of lightning in South America with Patricia's rapid intensification. Anyone other than me think this is more than a coincidence?
hehehe, nice catch Gro. They turned CONUS into an owl!
Selection of more (bad) weather news across the globe:

South-east Africa: Malawi's hydropower dries up as river runs low, menacing forests
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:54 GMT

Another warm, dry month to come after record hot October for Australia
October 29, 2015 - 9:18PM, Peter Hannam, Environment Editor, The Sydney Morning Herald

China warns of severe winter smog, worsened by El Nino
Source: Reuters - Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:17 GMT

Heavy rain results in severe flooding for Iran's Kurdish Ilam province
By Rudaw 5 hours ago
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Major rainfall starting from Monday has hit the Iranian Kurdish province of Ilam, leading to flooding in the area Wednesday night.
In addition to material damage, the flooding also resulted in casualties, killing three civilians and injuring many others. At least one resident has also been reported missing.
According to local sources, the flooding has largely damaged streets and roads in the province, damaging electricity and communication infrastructure in many districts and sub-districts.
"We did not expect such a mass loss from the flood. Many houses are heavily damaged and roads are damaged," a local source told Rudaw. "The flood shows that the province's construction infrastructure is weak and the government has not taken the construction and building sector into consideration." ...


Israel battered by heavy rain
BBC weather video, 29 October 2015 Last updated at 18:52
Israel has been awash with wintry weather over the past week, as heavy rains and thunderstorms have battered parts of the country. But what is causing this unsettled weather and is there any respite in sight?
Darren Bett reports for Global.


Bad weather on the way for earthquake victims
BBC weather video, 28 October 2015 Last updated at 17:51
Bad weather in Afghanistan and Pakistan could hamper the earthquake rescue effort over the coming days, as the forecast takes a turn for the worst.
Quoting 163. Grothar:



Only "The Shadow" knows.
Fair enough. It's information of a changed status that I now have something I want to say and at the same time an acknowledgement of thanks for what posters have contributed to my reading before. I can't speak for others.

Development of Chapala's eye.

Cyclone Chapala Could Bring Eight Years Worth of Rain to Yemen and Oman
By Eric Holthaus
An epic deluge is on the way to one of the driest parts of the world.
Coastal parts of Yemen and Oman receive, on average, only 4 or 5 inches each year. This weekend, thanks to Cyclone Chapala, some spots could get eight years worth of rain in just two days. ...

More with a map see link above.
Good night with this.
North of Patricia is a historical drought in California. North of Chapala is a drought in the region of the Aral Sea. How might they be connected? What mechanism? North of Patricia where it rapidly intensified is a historical drought in California. North of Chapala is a drought in the region of the Aral Sea. How might they be connected? What mechanism?
Have posters here read any of Charles Chandler's excellent work on the electro mechanical complexity of tornadoes? I ask because I am surprised that no one has asked the same questions about tropical storms, and if that question is asked, why the next question about the electro mechanical role that CO2 has in clouds as an ion. Large scale electrical behaviors then become very interesting in the climate change debate, and where it leads the discussion is to the rivers and dams.
Quoting 125. canyonboy:



You forgot alcohol.


That can't be kept in the office but yeah it's a fifth component.
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2015

I am one of the winners this year... I don't know about you.
Check the scorecard

Again, I'm a winner so far (unless another storm forms which may affect my score).


I know may of you know Im off exploring other fields outside WU. I was clear stating that as the creator of the chart I WILL announce the winners of this season's predictions here. That's my promise still up!

Seems like the season is winding down now so the results will be out sooner than later.

Wishing a spooky Halloween to all of you followed me and interacted over the years I was here.
Take care!

EDIT: Tyler Stanfield 7-4-1
Quoting 168. capeflorida:

hehehe, nice catch Gro. They turned CONUS into an owl!



Quoting 132. washingtonian115:

Noodles were the saving grace in college for me xD.During my freshman year we couldn't drive and there were no real large super markets near by (This was before the Boom of Walmart)


I lived on campus and ate in dining halls most of the time. My gripe at PSU was that they closed at 6:30 or so and I always preferred late dinner followed by study and bed. But at least the food was okay. Students who live on campus as undergraduates have slightly better academic outcomes. In Grad School I lived in an apartment; rents were inexpensive in TLH and I could actually afford my own. When I broke my knee and couldn't drive, I got my dad to take me to the grocer once and stocked up with enough food for eight weeks. Then I only had to supplement with vegetables and fruit. By week 3 I could hobble to the grocer for supplements. Friends and colleagues were
also very helpful.

Point I wanted to make was, if possible, as an undergraduate, it's better to live on campus IMHO and then not have to deal with groceries and cooking.
Quoting 167. MichaelDoran:

There was an extraordinary level of lightning in South America with Patricia's rapid intensification. Anyone other than me think this is more than a coincidence?
patricia was located in north america since it was off the coast of mexico,south america starts from colombia and end in argentina
Quoting 175. MaxWeather:

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2015

I am one of the winners this year... I don't know about you.
Check the scorecard

Again, I'm a winner so far (unless another storm forms which may affect my score).


I know may of you know Im off exploring other fields outside WU. I was clear stating that as the creator of the chart I WILL announce the winners of this season's predictions here. That's my promise still up!

Seems like the season is winding down now so the results will be out sooner than later.

Wishing a spooky Halloween to all of you followed me and interacted over the years I was here.
Take care!




Nice job. You are great with graphics. Thanks!
Quoting 178. Grothar:




Nice job. You are great with graphics. Thanks!

thanks Gro!

I have set this as the cover of a weather book I want to do in the future
I won't ever forget it

Quoting 177. knightwarrior41:

patricia was located in north america since it was off the coast of mexico,south america starts from colombia and end in argentina
Yes but the storm is connected electrically to South America by conductive warm tropical oceans and the upper atmosphere by way of the ionosphere.
Generating intense cold cloud tops.



Forgot to mention that severe t-storm last night caused at least one transformer to go (second hand report from a friend, I don't know the accuracy, lights only flickered on campus). Later we had a pretty good bow come through packing non-severe winds and another round of heavy rain. We had been looking for a lost wallet, but that caused us to give up and stand in the parking garage.

Quoting 176. georgevandenberghe:



I lived on campus and ate in dining halls most of the time. My gripe at PSU was that they closed at 6:30 or so and I always preferred late dinner followed by study and bed. But at least the food was okay. Students who live on campus as undergraduates have slightly better academic outcomes. In Grad School I lived in an apartment; rents were inexpensive in TLH and I could actually afford my own. When I broke my knee and couldn't drive, I got my dad to take me to the grocer once and stocked up with enough food for eight weeks. Then I only had to supplement with vegetables and fruit. By week 3 I could hobble to the grocer for supplements. Friends and colleagues were
also very helpful.

Point I wanted to make was, if possible, as an undergraduate, it's better to live on campus IMHO and then not have to deal with groceries and cooking.


Living off campus is cheaper for a lot of undergrads these days. A lot of my friends will move off campus (Millersville University) next year (I'm undecided) and begin to buy their own food. There's a grocery store just up the road that serves the town, and then the bus route goes buy another grocery store. If you can't cook, you can always buy those cans of soup (granted, high in salt content) and supplement with fresh fruits and veggies.

Besides, have to learn how to cook at some point. :) I can follow instructions on a box/bad pretty well, haha.
Quoting 154. BayFog:





If all goes as forecast, I might actually have a need to shovel some of that white stuff in four days.
Truckee, CA Forecast
Good Luck with it, but don't stray too far away from us.


Quoting 179. MaxWeather:


thanks Gro!

I have set this as the cover of a weather book I want to do in the future
I won't ever forget it


Quoting 167. MichaelDoran:

There was an extraordinary level of lightning in South America with Patricia's rapid intensification. Anyone other than me think this is more than a coincidence?


Where? If it was Venezuela, I wouldn't think all that much of it since they're famous for their lightning storms.

The only lightning research related to tropical cyclones that I have known of is when there is lightning detected within the storm itself, not thousands of miles away.
Quoting 164. Envoirment:

Chapala up to 95kts:

04A CHAPALA 151030 0000 14.2N 61.8E IO 95 952

Eye is starting to clear out, will likely become a category 4 and possibly a category 5 tomorrow.


Looks like it could be the strongest storm ever in this basin. Thank goodness it's track takes it to a low population area. RI clearly underway. We should count our blessings we've had a break in the Atlantic for a few years. Joaquin was an exception, but we've been very lucky. Outliners are beginning to show we may not be so lucky next year. Never want to see a repeat of 2005.
Chapala has explosively intensified this evening, with a ring of convection cooler than -70C wrapping around a circular eye warmer than 0C. This is very near a T7.0 on the Dvorak scale, which would suggest winds near Category 5 strength; however, there is probably a bit of a lag given how fast the storm has intensified.

Regardless, Chapala is already likely one of the most intense tropical cyclones on record in the Indian Ocean, and more intensification is possible over the coming days. This is a bad situation for Yemen, where tropical cyclones are uncommon at best. A 30kt depression in 2008 resulted in 200 deaths and $1 billion in damage.

My experience: Various. Best I think was to live off campus and eat on campus. Hadn't seen that mentioned yet for Astrometeor. Cooking is a pain, takes time, but did that on weekends.
Good Night boys and girls. Nice quiet little blog tonight, and no one scolded us :)
Quoting 162. washingtonian115:

Mmmm I'm curious..Why do people need to mention that they are lurkers?
Good question.
Girls and Boys?




Quoting 191. Patrap:

Girls and Boys?
Quoting 188. bappit:

My experience: Various. Best I think was to live off campus and eat on campus. Hadn't seen that mentioned yet for Astrometeor. Cooking is a pain, takes time, but did that on weekends.


Not particularly possible. Most off campus residents will eat lunch on campus, but they don't have the meals to buy the other two meals. Unless you want to spend extra money, better bet is to go grocery shopping.

I like cooking. I pick my own food and make what I want (within budget). Campus eating is picking what the University thinks you should eat. My stomach sharply disagrees with that approach. For living in Amish country, I think the only times I get Amish food is when I'm at my grandparents house since they buy from the Amish. The most I get on campus is the potent smell of cow manure whenever the wind shifts to waft it over campus.
The latest discussion on Chapala has it maxing out at 130 knots (150 mph) , which is more than earlier predicted, putting it up to a Cat 4. The current track has it going into a very sparsely populated region of Yemen, but whoever may be wandering thru the area will want to steer clear of the usually dry wadis that are going to shortly become raging torrents and even inland seas.
I just discovered that two key buoys off the northern California coast have been restored after several years out of commission. Good timing given the upcoming El Nino. These two buoys are several hundred miles west of San Francisco and Eureka, giving a fuller picture of incoming systems just before they reach near coastal waters.
Quoting 195. BayFog:

The latest discussion on Chapala has it maxing out at 130 knots (150 mph) , which is more than earlier predicted, putting it up to a Cat 4. The current track has it going into a very sparsely populated region of Yemen, but whoever may be wandering thru the area will want to steer clear of the usually dry wadis that are going to shortly become raging torrents and even inland seas.
War in Yemen: The unbeautiful south
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
5:30 AM IST October 30 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala over west central Arabian Sea moved westwards with a speed of about 12 km/h during past 6 hours, and lays centered near 14.3N 61.8E, about 1290 km west southwest of Mumbai (43003) and about 880 km east southeast of Salalah (41316) (Oman).

It would move west-northwestwards, and intensify further into an extremely severe cyclonic storm and cross northern Yemen and adjoining Oman coast as a very severe cyclonic storm between15.0N and 16.0N around 1800 PM UTC on Monday November 2nd.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T4.5. Associated low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convective clouds at many places over area between 12.0N to 17.0N and 59.0E to 65.0E. The minimum cloud top temperature around the system center is about -90C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 80 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 978 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 14.5N 60.6E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.4N 59.6E - 95-100 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.2N 56.9E - 105-110 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.5N 54.1E - 90-95 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
=================
The convection increased in past 12 hours with increase in convective bonding around the center. Improvement in central feature. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 30C. The ocean thermal energy is about 50-75 kj/cm2 to the east and north of the system center. It gradually decreases westward and is about 15-35 kj/cm2 west of 60.0E.The vertical wind shear is about 5-15 knots around the system center. The low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours and low level convergence remains the same. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 15.0N. There is another anti-cyclonic circulation to the northwest of the system center and the cyclonic storm lies in the southeastern periphery of this anticyclone. It is helping in increasing more westward component in the movement of the system. The Madden Jullian Oscillation index lies in phase 2 with amplitude greater than 2 and it would continue to remain in same phase with similar amplitude for next 5 days. It is highly favorable for intensification of the system. As the system would move closer to Yemen and adjoining Oman coast, it would experience lower ocean thermal energy as well as intrusion of dry air from northwest. As a result, there is possibility of slight weakening of the system over the sea before the landfall.
Quoting 149. barbamz:



Very symmetric indead. Eye is so small it won't show up on this current loop.

That is both a beautiful and scary looking storm. It most likely would weaken before striking land due to the presence of dry, continental air (very dry!), but atm and in the near term, seems like a winner. Reminds me of Andrew with that true buzzsaw look. Lots of symmetry and deep, cold convection. This certainly isn't one to be taken lightly. Someone mentioned annular. There's loads of feeder bands around the core. It's not annular, but a compact powerhouse. Pretty incredible looking, imo and considering how much, to me, it appears to have deepened in the last 24 hrs. Haven't yet checked any info out there regarding the storm as I just got home from work, but that satellite image says a lot. It's obviously working with some fairly ideal conditions.

And Gro, I see the 35ishW blob is still showing signs of life. ;) We'll keep watching as long as it keeps chugging.
Lovely weather we are having. ON a side note, Patriots 36, Dolphins 7.....
Quoting 187. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Chapala has explosively intensified this evening, with a ring of convection cooler than -70C wrapping around a circular eye warmer than 0C. This is very near a T7.0 on the Dvorak scale, which would suggest winds near Category 5 strength; however, there is probably a bit of a lag given how fast the storm has intensified.

Regardless, Chapala is already likely one of the most intense tropical cyclones on record in the Indian Ocean, and more intensification is possible over the coming days. This is a bad situation for Yemen, where tropical cyclones are uncommon at best. A 30kt depression in 2008 resulted in 200 deaths and $1 billion in damage.




Exactly! I didn't think adt would be that high, but also not surprised. I thought it had "that look". Just looked. Yeah, raw T at 6.9. Quite respectable indeed. Certainly is one of the fastest intensifying cyclones I can remember seeing in that region. A storm hitting Yemen seems quite akin to a storm hitting the deserts of the Southwest US. Heavy precip is probably NOT a good thing. Add 100+kt winds...
While checking the state of chill in the darkening Arctic, I came across an island with a feature called "Meteorologist Peninsula". It lies at the southern end of Ellef Ringnes Island whose other claim to fame (according to Wikipedia) is that it was the last land mass upon which the north magnetic pole was last located. Haven't found anything to explain how it got that name.
Quoting 201. GatorWX:



Exactly! I didn't think adt would be that high, but also not surprised. I thought it had "that look". Just looked. Yeah, raw T at 6.9. Quite respectable indeed. Certainly is one of the fastest intensifying cyclones I can remember seeing in that region. A storm hitting Yemen seems quite akin to a storm hitting the deserts of the Southwest US. Heavy precip is probably NOT a good thing. Add 100+kt winds...

Of course, IMD which is the official agency only thinks this is 80kt...



I have no doubt a majority of the people on this blog could do a better job assessing cyclone intensity than some of these agencies outside the National Hurricane Center.
Quoting 204. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Of course, IMD which is the official agency only thinks this is 80kt...



I have no doubt a majority of the people on this blog could do a better job assessing cyclone intensity than some of these agencies outside the National Hurricane Center.


Looks like a TD to me. ;)

Nice to see than error on that one Wiki page was finally fixed. :)
There are two massive dams in 2009 and 2012 that were constructed on the rio grande de Santiago which flows into the Gulf of California near where Patricia land fell. This impacts carbonation levels in the near shore ocean, and carbonation levels that get sucked up into a tropical storm. Likewise, carbonation levels have been impacted in the Arabian Sea by massive dams built in Pakistan, Western India and Tibet and are influencing this storm Chapala . The fact that these storms are winding up contrary to models suggest a different forcing--an electrical one, on cloud movements. When these storms then go over land, which is 5,000 times less conductive than the warm salt water below them, the capacitance goes to zero and they quickly weaken. Patricia weakened faster than any recorded storm EVER. This is interesting but not discussed.
Quoting 204. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Of course, IMD which is the official agency only thinks this is 80kt...
I have no doubt a majority of the people on this blog could do a better job assessing cyclone intensity than some of these agencies outside the National Hurricane Center.


RSMC New Delphi Advance Dvorak Technique
Storm: ARB04 (CHAPALA)

2015OCT30 033000 6.0 927.0 +0.0 115.0 6.0 6.3 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 10.04 -76.85 EYE 16 IR 34.0 14.16 -61.42

the advisories will catch up to real-time.
Quoting 162. washingtonian115:

Mmmm I'm curious..Why do people need to mention that they are lurkers?


They just want you know that they are watching you. Very closely. ;)
Quoting 204. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Of course, IMD which is the official agency only thinks this is 80kt...



I have no doubt a majority of the people on this blog could do a better job assessing cyclone intensity than some of these agencies outside the National Hurricane Center.


The more I look at it, that really is a beautiful, picturesque cyclone. I'm not usually this bold, but I would not be the least bit surprised if that becomes a cat 5 equivalent. Looks to me like a solid cat 3/4 now and with the way the cdo has expanded and again, with the symmetry going on, yikes. Kind of remarkable. Can I say pinhole eye? Please?

"Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km" -CIMSS Dvorak.
Quoting 205. Astrometeor:



Looks like a TD to me. ;)

Nice to see than error on that one Wiki page was finally fixed. :)
They should start having recon over there.
Blobcon 1



why did someone have to remind me of the ramen stash that has been in my cupboard for the past 3 years?
They're saying this has a mb of 978? Are they really that incompetent? Surely this is closer right now to 920mb if not lower. What a beast.
According to ADT, Chapala has gone from ~3.5t, 995mb, 55kts to 6.3t, 943mb, 122.2kts in 24 hrs. I stated roughly because there was no 0400 reading yesterday and I went with a mean between the two closest readings. Pretty respectable drop and one that would likely be superseded by a plane's readings if one were there to sample. These small systems are incredible.
Quoting 211. Grothar:

Blobcon 1






Aww! ;)

It's still chugging!
Gro, as I stated earlier, I'm impressed this is out there around Halloween time. I think I did misspeak though and say the end of November. You all know what I meant. Ha. It certainly is firing off some decent convection. There's a fairly vigorous low there, or at least there was the last time I looked at a visual and I assume there still is. Ya never know. What was that Dylan song? "The Times They Are A Changin'", was it? Not sure this one necessarily applies and I'm not too convinced this one will develop given the outlook, but I'll give it what it is, a very vigorous tropical wave for this late in the season. Gosh I eat this stuff up. Why did I choose to be a culinary major?
Cyclone Chapala Could Bring Eight Years Worth of Rain to Yemen and Oman

By Eric Holthaus


Oman and Yemen are on alert this week as Cyclone Chapala approaches. Here, a Muscat beach scene in 2010.


An epic deluge is on the way to one of the driest parts of the world.

Coastal parts of Yemen and Oman receive, on average, only 4 or 5 inches each year. This weekend, thanks to Cyclone Chapala, some spots could get eight years worth of rain in just two days.


Forecasted rainfall totals (in inches) from Cyclone Chapala are literally off the charts. More than 32 inches of rain could fall in parts of Oman and Yemen—eight times the annual average.

Satellite images show Cyclone Chapala, which formed on Wednesday, has already begun to rapidly strengthen. Latest high resolution weather models show it could top out at category 4 strength on Sunday, in line with current official forecasts, and should then weaken slightly as it approaches the coast of the Arabian Peninsula near the border of Yemen and Oman on Monday. Salalah, Oman—the country’s second largest city with about 200,000 people—could bear the brunt of the storm, including storm surge of 15 feet or more. The tremendous amount of rainfall, though, is Chapala’s biggest threat.

Tropical cyclones are an extreme rarity near the Arabian Peninsula. Since reliable records begin in 1979, there have been only two hurricane-strength storms to make landfall in Oman, and the only storm to hit Yemen topped out with winds at a paltry 35 mph, barely tropical storm strength. All three of these storms have happened since 2007.

Yemen, where a messy civil war began earlier this year, is also one of the most water-stressed countries on the planet. It’s also frequently mentioned, along with Syria, as a potential hot spot of climate change-fueled conflict—what the Pentagon refers to as “threat multiplier.”


The latest forecast track for Cyclone Chapala brings the storm toward the coast of Yemen and Oman.

Cyclone Chapala could become the first hurricane-strength storm in recorded history to make landfall in Yemen, and may surpass 2007’s Cyclone Gonu that hit near Muscat, Oman—the strongest storm ever recorded to hit the Arabian Peninsula at category 3 strength.

Chapala’s rapid strengthening comes in part due to record-warm ocean temperatures over virtually all of the Arabian Sea. In addition to spawning Chapala, the broader Indian Ocean is currently in sync with the near-record strength El Niño in the Pacific, helping to boost temperatures and shift weather patterns worldwide. A recent study predicted that, thanks to climate change, some regions of the world like the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf could experience unprecedented threats from tropical cyclones as ocean temperatures warm.


And just think this is only the beginning....may God be with you all.
Quoting 180. MichaelDoran:

Yes but the storm is connected electrically to South America by conductive warm tropical oceans and the upper atmosphere by way of the ionosphere.
Where did you come up with this theory? It doesn't match any meteorological or electrical facts I'm aware of.
219. JRRP
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should limit the
development of this system while it moves westward near 15 mph over
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 216. GatorWX:

Gro, as I stated earlier, I'm impressed this is out there around Halloween time. I think I did misspeak though and say the end of November. You all know what I meant. Ha. It certainly is firing off some decent convection. There's a fairly vigorous low there, or at least there was the last time I looked at a visual and I assume there still is. Ya never know. What was that Dylan song? "The Times They Are A Changin'", was it? Not sure this one necessarily applies and I'm not too convinced this one will develop given the outlook, but I'll give it what it is, a very vigorous tropical wave for this late in the season. Gosh I eat this stuff up. Why did I choose to be a culinary major?
LOL. Must be because you eat up the culinary stuff too. There's still a 1011 mb low out there which is why the NHC has the yellow X. Rather considerable change in the 0200 update as well. Not a bad thing for nearing Halloween.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should limit the
development of this system while it moves westward near 15 mph over
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi
So barbaric with that elephant story - cyanide? That's the most gutless hunt any man could have. So frustrated these livelihoods are supported in any way.

If that cyclone pans out and dumps that much rain in that area - that's going to be talked about for years- this is unprecedented. I realized Mexico got lucky (hat tip to Mexican government on preparedness) last week but these bullets are much too many. It really does seem like the loaded dice analogy is playing out. Let's hope this cyclone helps wind down whatever regional troubles they are having and they can sit down and smooth things over.

Above all- be safe and kind to your fellow man.
Quoting 173. MichaelDoran:

Have posters here read any of Charles Chandler's excellent work on the electro mechanical complexity of tornadoes? I ask because I am surprised that no one has asked the same questions about tropical storms, and if that question is asked, why the next question about the electro mechanical role that CO2 has in clouds as an ion. Large scale electrical behaviors then become very interesting in the climate change debate, and where it leads the discussion is to the rivers and dams.
Mr. Chandler appears to be a good programmer and network administrator from the resume at his web site. He doesn't seem to have any education in meteorology or electrical engineering. From what I can find, he doesn't appear to have a college degree at all. Be that as it may, here are two things that jump out at me from his self-published paper --

1) He thinks a house builds up an incredibly strong negative charge. This causes the roof, or even the whole house, to be lifted up into the air by the positively charged tornado.

2) The incredibly strong positive charge is so great that the house literally explodes from the mutual repulsion between its various parts. This repulsion either occurs all at once or just a piece at a time. This explains why some houses are swept off their foundations while others just have minor damage.

If one or both of these things were true, Mr. Chandler has discovered a completely new and unique theory of how electrons work and how they are affected by a tornado. Do you believe that's the case?
Hmmmm.
Could be interesting! Looking forward to here more about this!


Quoting 222. sar2401:

Mr. Chandler appears to be a good programmer and network administrator from the resume at his web site. He doesn't seem to have any education in meteorology or electrical engineering. From what I can find, he doesn't appear to have a college degree at all. Be that as it may, here are two things that jump out at me from his self-published paper --

1) He thinks a house builds up an incredibly strong negative charge. This causes the roof, or even the whole house, to be lifted up into the air by the positively charged tornado.

2) The incredibly strong positive charge is so great that the house literally explodes from the mutual repulsion between its various parts. This repulsion either occurs all at once or just a piece at a time. This explains why some houses are swept off their foundations while others just have minor damage.

If one or both of these things were true, Mr. Chandler has discovered a completely new and unique theory of how electrons work and how they are affected by a tornado. Do you believe that's the case?
Quoting 221. CraigsIsland:

So barbaric with that elephant story - cyanide? That's the most gutless hunt any man could have. So frustrated these livelihoods are supported in any way.

If that cyclone pans out and dumps that much rain in that area - that's going to be talked about for years- this is unprecedented. I realized Mexico got lucky (hat tip to Mexican government on preparedness) last week but these bullets are much too many. It really does seem like the loaded dice analogy is playing out. Let's hope this cyclone helps wind down whatever regional troubles they are having and they can sit down and smooth things over.

Above all- be safe and kind to your fellow man.
Sad indeed, but yet another illustration of how economic criminals find a way around systems set up to catch them. We provided the Zimbabwe park service with a gunshot location system a couple of years ago. When a rifle shot was fired in the park, the rangers knew the location within 10 seconds and sent personnel to the scene while the poachers were still stripping the tusks. Rather than keeping quiet about this, the US government and the manufacturer of the system thought this would be a good PR opportunity to show how "green" they were. When the poachers realized that the upswing in recent arrests wasn't just bad luck, they switched to poisoning to do their dirty work. None of this trade would be possible if it wasn't for the active cooperation of the Zimbabwean and Chinese governments allowing the tusks out of the country to begin with and providing a market for the powder. The most helpless players in this game are the elephants, and they are the big losers.
Quoting 140. beell:

How IBM’s Deep Thunder delivers “hyper-local” forecasts 3-1/2 days out-arstechnica/Mar 14, 2012

A flurry of press releases and articles in 2010-2012 expounding on the possibilities and benefits of IBM's Deep Thunder then...nothing, nada, zippo, zot, zip, zilch, bupkis, squat, diddly, and jack squat...

Maybe a lack of sensors or poor verification or both?


The last paragraph provides some insight as to why IBM wanted WU.

"IBM is also using private data sources to feed Deep Thunder—or at least validate and tune its forecasts, depending on the type of data available. In addition to connecting to any weather sensors a municipality or company may have in place, IBM has also connected to partners for validation data; in New York, for example, the company has teamed with Earth Networks to pull data from its WeatherBug network of sensors. “Their sensors are clustered in the US around urban and suburban areas,” Treinish said, “but so are a lot of our applications. We get the data every five minutes—it’s very valuable to validating and improving the model.”."
Deep Thunder is sounding like an exercise in over-fitting the data.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
8:30 AM IST October 30 2015
=============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards and intensified further into an extremely severe cyclonic storm. The cyclonic storm now lays centered near 14.3N 61.5E, about 1320 km west southwest of Mumbai and about 850 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move westwards, intensify further into a super cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and cross northern Yemen and adjoining Oman coast between 15.0N and 16.0N around midnight on November 2nd. Due to entrainment of dry air and lower ocean thermal energy over Gulf of Aden and adjoining west central Arabian Sea off Yemen and Oman coast, there is possibility of slight weakening of the system before the landfall over north Yemen and adjoining Oman coasts.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T5.5. Convective cloud shows eye pattern with well-defined eye of diameter about 15 km. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over area between 12.0N to 17.0N and 58.0E to 64.5E.The lowest cloud top temperature is -83C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 105 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 956 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
================
9 HRS 14.5N 60.6E - 110-115 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 14.4N 59.6E - 120-125 knots (Super Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 14.2N 56.9E - 120-125 knots (Super Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 14.5N 54.1E - 90-95 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Is our resident blobologist here today?
Quoting 201. GatorWX:



Exactly! I didn't think adt would be that high, but also not surprised. I thought it had "that look". Just looked. Yeah, raw T at 6.9. Quite respectable indeed. Certainly is one of the fastest intensifying cyclones I can remember seeing in that region. A storm hitting Yemen seems quite akin to a storm hitting the deserts of the Southwest US. Heavy precip is probably NOT a good thing. Add 100+kt winds...

As we speculated a few days ago, this storm has the potential to become very strong and cause a lot of damage.
There is no precedent in North American storm history for what a cyclone of cat 4 can do to a place like Yemen.
The building systems are totally different and a lot of mud is used to build quite big buildings. There is normally no problems with this as the rainfall is so low.
Here is a link to some photos of buildings in Yemen. Its not that important where the storm land falls as its the rain which is going to be the problem, not the winds there, plus of course the run off in an area with virtually no river systems let alone dried up rives to start with.
Coastal damage will also be massive from waves and possible storm surge.

Link
Quoting 153. pablosyn:



With these features seen in satellite images, I'm beginning to think that "Gonu" ever could be smashed by "Chapala".

Modelled to forget Gonu. I had to retrieve my lower mandible again this morning (local time Holland), it had just been fitted back after Patricia.
Good day weather fans. Been a lurker for a long time and finally decided to register an account.
I was a little shocked at the Navy's 0600z image this morning; is this info right?
Chapala already at 135 knots with a 922 mb pressure?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
11:30 AM IST October 30 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, Chapala over west central Arabian Sea moved westwards with a speed of about 11 km/h during past 6hours and now lays centered near 14.3N 61.1E, about 1350 km west southwest of Mumbai (43003) and about 800 km east southeast of Salalah (41316) (Oman).

It would move westwards, intensify further into a super cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and cross Yemen and adjoining Oman coast between 15.0N and 16.0N around midnight November 2nd. Due to entrainment of dry air and lower ocean thermal energy over Gulf of Aden and adjoining west central Arabian Sea off Yemen and Oman coast, there is possibility of slight weakening of the system before the landfall over Yemen and adjoining Oman coast.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T5.5 and convective cloud shows eye pattern with well-defined eye of diameter about 15 km. Associated low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convective clouds over area between 11.0N to 17.5N and 58.0E and 64.0E. Lowest cloud top temperature is -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 110 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 950 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 14.1N 60.2E - 115-120 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.9N 58.9E - 120-125 knots (Super Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.1N 56.0E - 115-120 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.6N 52.9E - 90-95 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
==================
The system has intensified rapidly during the past 12 hours due to very low wind shear and increase in lower level vorticity. The eye is seen both in infrared and visible imagery and the eye temperature is +7.6C. The sea surface temperature around the system centreis about 30C and it decreases towards the west. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around the system center and it decreases to the west of 60.0E. The vertical wind shear isabout 5-10 knots around the system center. It is 10-20 knots to the west and west northwest. The low level relative vorticity has is >200 x10-5sec-1. Upper level divergence is about 40x10-5sec-1 and low level convergence is around 20x10-5sec-1. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 15.0N. There is another anti-cyclonic circulation to the northwest of the system center and the cyclonic storm lies in the southeastern periphery of this anticyclone. It is helping in increasing more westward component in the movement of the system. The Madden Jullian Oscillation index lies in phase 2 with amplitude greater than 2 and it would continue to remain in same phase with similar amplitude for next 5 days. It is highly favorable for intensification of the system. As the system would move closer to Yemen and adjoining Oman coasts, it would experience lower ocean thermal energy as well as intrusion of dry air from northwest. As a result, there is possibility of slight weakening of the system over the sea before the landfall.
Good morning with two saved current loops of Chapala, a dangerous beauty:




Source.
Quoting 222. sar2401:

Mr. Chandler appears to be a good programmer and network administrator from the resume at his web site. He doesn't seem to have any education in meteorology or electrical engineering. From what I can find, he doesn't appear to have a college degree at all. Be that as it may, here are two things that jump out at me from his self-published paper --

1) He thinks a house builds up an incredibly strong negative charge. This causes the roof, or even the whole house, to be lifted up into the air by the positively charged tornado.

2) The incredibly strong positive charge is so great that the house literally explodes from the mutual repulsion between its various parts. This repulsion either occurs all at once or just a piece at a time. This explains why some houses are swept off their foundations while others just have minor damage.

If one or both of these things were true, Mr. Chandler has discovered a completely new and unique theory of how electrons work and how they are affected by a tornado. Do you believe that's the case?


Not that part no and I think if you read what he is saying that part may be postulation, but his overall points remain about traditional thinking about tornadoes lacks thermodynamic explanation--so I do think that there is an electrical complexity to the movements of clouds that can't be ignored, and not just tornadoes. It's both large scale and small scale problem of difficulty, which gets back to some fundamental problems with assumptions in all of the modelsthat are state of the science. For instance on the large scale side of things, one reaction to what I am saying questioned what lightning in South America had to do with Patricia. Typically we, and when I say we I mean the meteorological community, look at a storm in terms of its 'center' and go outwards from there, and certainly don't frame the storm in terms of where charges and currents come from or where they might organize or why. I think it gets specifically and ultimately gets to viscosity in the way 'we' look at storms and I will leave that discussion for later, but I also think the fact that he's educated but not restricted by his ken has allowed him to ask a basic thermodynamics questions about where the energy of tornadoes comes from, that simple heat and pressure alone are not well describing what is occurring.
Quoting 218. sar2401:

Where did you come up with this theory? It doesn't match any meteorological or electrical facts I'm aware of.


What I said: Yes but the storm is connected electrically to South America by conductive warm tropical oceans and the upper atmosphere by way of the ionosphere.

Omitted in this statement, when not in context, is that there was relatively a large amount of lightning in South America when Patricia RI. Mathematically I think you have to treat it with fractal math, which is a whole different discussion, but the point is lightning summed up in an area involves general large scale electrical currents that flow around the global electrical circuit. Within that circuit are conductive pathways, and of course the ionosphere is conductive, and so is warm salt water. There is also electron precipitation, which occurs when lightning strikes it spits charges into the upper atmosphere and how they move and where they go will depend on the fields proximate to them. There are MANY papers on the global electrical circuit. A good place to start would be Brian Tinsley but he's not the only one: Tinsley You will find my approach frustrating I suspect but in the end I am going to build this house brick by brick and if you hang long enough you will see it's a strong well built one. Perhaps we can talk about it in more simple terms. There was a lot of lightning in South America and Patricia rapidly intensified and large scale conductive pathways to connect the charges from that lightning to Patricia. Is that a coincidence?
238. MahFL
Regarding China and their one child per family policy, they changed it to two children per family, so get ready for a huge population explosion there, with all the associated green house gasses being produced.
239. MahFL
Hmmm Super Cyclone Chapala is at 155 mph.

I really worry what we do with the planet. many publications blogs press TV talk about climate change and global warning. But goverments do nothing or almost nothing. They are blind or want to be blind.
Here in Spain we got 2 months record average temperature and a heating wave of 3 weeks never see before so long.
Many food items around the world has increasing prices cause drought.
This year many records temp or anomally all around the world.
Quoting 239. MahFL:

Hmmm Super Cyclone Chapala is at 155 mph.




So, it is true? That would be quite the rapid intensification. Guess the models will need some tweaking today?
Quoting 241. SPShaw:



So, it is true? That would quite the rapid intensification. Guess the models will need some tweaking today?


It's interesting to me a poster was critical of Chandler's background as a programmer when indeed our models are computer programs. As if it's a disqualification. I also have to say perhaps out of context but perhaps right on in a blog about another point record, is that the common reaction seems to be get more data points. There are two more buoys off the coast of California in an El Nino year, one poster writes. The more recent plans of our government is to apply the latest greatest computer and then have more grid points to make the model of climate better. Here is what the problem with this is--if you have an electrical complexity electrical currents can move around those data points and never be registered.

Here is a hypo. Say you have a room with multiple temperature readings you can use. Then inside that room is a heating element and an electrical wire to it from outside the room. Let's say then that what you are monitoring is how the room changes from heat coming and going through a window. If you increase the data points inside the room so you have more temperature readings do you think you are going to end up with a better model of what is occurring inside the room if you don't have a handle on the heating element and the electrical wires to it? Or to give it a biological context, a handle of the person who is turning the heating element on and off? That's the problem is the electrical currents can move in these tiny pathways that our data, even with smaller grid size, don't capture, and our computers, even super fast processing, are not calculating.
Quoting 238. MahFL:

Regarding China and their one child per family policy, they changed it to two children per family, so get ready for a huge population explosion there, with all the associated green house gasses being produced.


China's per capita emissions have been decreasing along with total overall emission. Per capita, China currently emits as much ghg's as the United Kingdom. Given your recent comments, maybe a refrain from analyzing other countries policies based on gut reactions and lack of facts is in order.
Quoting 238. MahFL:

Regarding China and their one child per family policy, they changed it to two children per family, so get ready for a huge population explosion there, with all the associated green house gasses being produced.
That's making the assumption that the one-child-per-family law was the only thing holding people back from having multiple children. But both anecdotal and empirical evidence shows that to be a false assumption.

"Wang Feng, a sociologist and demographic expert from the University of California, Irvine, said any baby boom would likely be short-lived – if it happened at all. Wang [predicted] Beijing’s decision to abandon a 35-year-old policy... would do almost nothing to boost China’s low fertility rate... Chinese couples no longer had small families because of draconian family planning rules but because of social and economic factors such as the cost of urban life and education and uncertainty in the job market... Wang said: “The low fertility rate is here to stay.” (Source)

Also: Chinese Families Can Now Have Two Children, But Can They Afford Them?

China is a massive country with a massive population--and massive problems. But a potential "huge population boom" probably isn't one of them.
245. MahFL
Quoting 243. Naga5000:



China's per capita emissions have been decreasing along with total overall emission. Per capita, China currently emits as much ghg's as the United Kingdom. Given your recent comments, maybe a refrain from analyzing other countries policies based on gut reactions and lack of facts is in order.


Your sure about the emissions ?

"New data on carbon shows that China's emissions per head of population have surpassed the EU for the first time. "..."The biggest emitters were China, which produced 29% of the total, followed by the US at 15%, the EU at 10% and India at 7.1%"

Source Link

Common sense would indicate China's emissions will only go up, along with everyone else too, but China is the Worlds largest producer of emissions.
Finally some news available about the aftermath of the unusual amounts rains in the Western Sahara lately:

Algeria: Bad Weather - UN Launches Urgent Appeal for Relief Aid to Saharawi Refugees
Oct 29, 2015
Algiers — United Nations office in Algeria on Thursday urged the international community to take the appropriate actions to meet the urgent needs of Saharawi refugees, hit by the bad weather that ravaged recently the five refugee camps in Tindouf (Algeria's south-west). ...
Thousands of families have had their houses "totally or partially destroyed and a large number of homes lost their monthly food supply."
Several basic infrastructures like public facilities, pharmacies, hospitals, community health centres and schools have been seriously damaged," the UN deplores.
Quoting 238. MahFL:

Regarding China and their one child per family policy, they changed it to two children per family, so get ready for a huge population explosion there, with all the associated green house gasses being produced.


nah. low fertility's here to stay there. many Chinese now live in cities and are middle class and kids are an expense.
248. MahFL
Quoting 247. terstorm:



nah. low fertility's here to stay there. many Chinese now live in cities and are middle class and kids are an expense.


Kids are an expense everywhere lol.
Heard a great discussion about China lifting the one-child policy on NPR yesterday ... It mirrored what Neapolitan said below. Just wanted to add that the main reason China is doing this is that their population is aging and this is a strategy to help care for their elderly. It is likely not to pan out because most families are economically strained just to raise one child, and a second would be unlikely.
Another consequence of this is that most homes there are sized for a three person household, and larger homes are rarer. The price of a three bedroom home is likely to increase greatly.
Quoting 242. MichaelDoran:



It's interesting to me a poster was critical of Chandler's background as a programmer when indeed our models are computer programs. As if it's a disqualification. I also have to say perhaps out of context but perhaps right on in a blog about another point record, is that the common reaction seems to be get more data points. There are two more buoys off the coast of California in an El Nino year, one poster writes. The more recent plans of our government is to apply the latest greatest computer and then have more grid points to make the model of climate better. Here is what the problem with this is--if you have an electrical complexity electrical currents can move around those data points and never be registered.

Here is a hypo. Say you have a room with multiple temperature readings you can use. Then inside that room is a heating element and an electrical wire to it from outside the room. Let's say then that what you are monitoring is how the room changes from heat coming and going through a window. If you increase the data points inside the room so you have more temperature readings do you think you are going to end up with a better model of what is occurring inside the room if you don't have a handle on the heating element and the electrical wires to it? Or to give it a biological context, a handle of the person who is turning the heating element on and off? That's the problem is the electrical currents can move in these tiny pathways that our data, even with smaller grid size, don't capture, and our computers, even super fast processing, are not calculating.
It's always interesting, of course, when a citizen scientists with little or no formal training or education in a particular field offers up a theory that s/he believes to have been missed by all the actual experts in that field simply because they lack the imagination or intellect to have spotted it.

Tropical meteorologists have long observed that smaller storms can both spin up and wind down more quickly than larger storms. (It's the same reason that a train with, say, ten cars can accelerate much more quickly than can a train with 100 cars.) So Patricia's RI was surprising, but it's also explainable. Same with the storm's demise; Patricia died quickly after leaving its food source--warm Pacific waters--and traversing the rugged, mountainous terrain of Mexico. No one is denying there are electro-mechanical components to atmospheric storms. But acknowledging that is a million miles from claiming that Patricia's record-breaking behavior was primarily due to electrical conductivity. Or--as has also been discussed in the same circles--blaming the massive and ongoing California drought on dam-induced carbonation. (?!)

One supposes it's possible, as you've stated, that Chandler is simply "not restricted by his ken", and that freedom allows him to have better insight than those who've been indoctrinated with knowledge. But it's also possible that some formal education in the field would have allowed Chandler to more readily differentiate fact from fiction, and vice versa.
"China is a massive country with a massive population--and massive problems. But a potential "huge population boom" probably isn't one of them." etc.

China's two children policy was news to me. Just read it here. Yes, "huge" is indefinable related to numbers, but the news sure is huge and will undeniably make a difference in China's population growth. Thanks Naga and Neo for the chuckles with morning coffee. Reading your latest comments made me realize you are "deniers" lol, well, at least "minimizers" of China's behemoth population and its still-growing industrialization. Your recent comments here provide fodder for those who want to call your neverending alarmism political, as you seem to want to focus on the U.S and its politics. To my mind, any person truly interested in reducing CO2 emission has a global view.

Have a nice day.
Quoting 245. MahFL:



Your sure about the emissions ?

"New data on carbon shows that China's emissions per head of population have surpassed the EU for the first time. "..."The biggest emitters were China, which produced 29% of the total, followed by the US at 15%, the EU at 10% and India at 7.1%"

Source Link

Common sense would indicate China's emissions will only go up, along with everyone else too, but China is the Worlds largest producer of emissions.


World Bank data from the 2011-2015 time frame China 6.4 metric tons per capita, United Kingdom 7.1 . I made no statement regarding the entirety of the EU.

As for total emissions:

"In 2014, China cut domestic consumption of coal by 2.9 percent, the first drop in more than a decade, with coal production also falling 2.5 percent. China’s carbon emissions also fell last year for the first time in over a decade, dropping 2 percent in 2014 compared to 2013."

and

"According to a new analysis, in the first four months of 2015, China’s coal use fell almost 8 percent compared to the same period last year — a reduction in emissions that’s approximately equal to the total carbon dioxide emissions of the U.K. over the same period.
The analysis, published by Greenpeace and Energydesk China, reviewed data from a number of sources, including China’s industrial output, and found that China had reduced its coal output by 6.1 percent in the first four months of 2015. The research team calculated that the drop in coal use translates into a nearly 5 percent drop in domestic CO2 emissions." Link

So I'll go with new data and not a year old article from the BBC.

Map of Yemen where Chapala should make landfall (at the southeastern coast). Click the map to get an enlarged version.
Many of China's governmental and business elite have been educated at US Ivy League schools and the Daughter of the President of China just graduated from Yale (and enrolled under an assumed name for security reasons). Regardless of what our views may be on Chinese politics, or their positions on climate change, they will probably do a better job than the US had done the last several decades in addressing their issues and concerns...............That is one of the benefits of a hybrid communist/capitalist regime which they have evolved to..........Those at the top study the issues, make their decisions based on the best interest of China, and move forward with the plan. Great advantage over an ineffective and bickering Congress like in the US that is not able to get anything done lately.................................... The Chinese will be fine.
Rain out here today is absolutely intense


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
718 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 717 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER GERONIMO...OR NEAR SEGUIN...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ZORN AROUND 725 AM CDT.
NEW BRAUNFELS AROUND 730 AM CDT.
Stumbled across WUTV last night while flipping channels. There's 10 minutes of my life that I'll never get back.
Quoting 173. MichaelDoran:

Have posters here read any of Charles Chandler's excellent work on the electro mechanical complexity of tornadoes? I ask because I am surprised that no one has asked the same questions about tropical storms, and if that question is asked, why the next question about the electro mechanical role that CO2 has in clouds as an ion. Large scale electrical behaviors then become very interesting in the climate change debate, and where it leads the discussion is to the rivers and dams.
Hi.
I have not, but I will because tornadoes are a special interest. The flow and properties of water molecules is also of special interest to me. Much more to nature's flow than what mankind has discovered to date. We've given names to things - ions, electrons, H2O, CO2. Creative scientific thinking will bring breakthroughs in our understanding. Been a long time since Ben Franklin hung a key on a kite string. Lots more to be learned.


Thanks for bringing up Charles Chandler and for your comments here!

7:38 am cdt, add:
Quoting 172. MichaelDoran:

North of Patricia is a historical drought in California. North of Chapala is a drought in the region of the Aral Sea. How might they be connected? What mechanism? North of Patricia where it rapidly intensified is a historical drought in California. North of Chapala is a drought in the region of the Aral Sea. How might they be connected? What mechanism?
Quoting 252. Naga5000:



World Bank data from the 2011-2015 time frame China 6.4 metric tons per capita, United Kingdom 7.1 . I made no statement regarding the entirety of the EU.

As for total emissions:

"In 2014, China cut domestic consumption of coal by 2.9 percent, the first drop in more than a decade, with coal production also falling 2.5 percent. China’s carbon emissions also fell last year for the first time in over a decade, dropping 2 percent in 2014 compared to 2013."

and

"According to a new analysis, in the first four months of 2015, China’s coal use fell almost 8 percent compared to the same period last year — a reduction in emissions that’s approximately equal to the total carbon dioxide emissions of the U.K. over the same period.
The analysis, published by Greenpeace and Energydesk China, reviewed data from a number of sources, including China’s industrial output, and found that China had reduced its coal output by 6.1 percent in the first four months of 2015. The research team calculated that the drop in coal use translates into a nearly 5 percent drop in domestic CO2 emissions." Link

So I'll go with new data and not a year old article from the BBC.


The difference is still about 75% of Chinas population is in rural areas, that emissions number will probably continue to rise as cities begin to spread. The one good thing China has going for it, emissions wise, is total state control of basically everything. So if the government decides it wants to just stop using coal it can. Unlike any democratic country.
The outlook for Conus today; notice the split Conus jet over the Northern Gulf areas that is typical of an El Nino Fall/Winter along with the low trajectory Gulf lows:






Quoting 253. barbamz:


Map of Yemen where Chapala should make landfall (at the southeastern coast). Click the map to get an enlarged version.
Hallelujah! Now, we can finally get on with the project. Introducing Salmon to the Yemen!


Quoting 172. MichaelDoran:

North of Patricia is a historical drought in California. North of Chapala is a drought in the region of the Aral Sea. How might they be connected? What mechanism? North of Patricia where it rapidly intensified is a historical drought in California. North of Chapala is a drought in the region of the Aral Sea. How might they be connected? What mechanism?


The drought in California is partly a natural cycle. Deserts exist around the globe at 30 N and 30 S because of atmospheric overturning and wind. Aral Sea is influenced by some of the same sinking air.

Quoting 258. VAbeachhurricanes:



The difference is still about 75% of Chinas population is in rural areas, that emissions number will probably continue to rise as cities begin to spread. The one good thing China has going for it, emissions wise, is total state control of basically everything. So if the government decides it wants to just stop using coal it can. Unlike any democratic country.

China crossed the 50% urbanization mark couple of years ago.
Funny IBM was in the news last night for weak quarterly sales and is labeled as one of the worst companies to work for. Good luck TWC & WSI.
Quoting 264. StormTrackerScott:

Funny IBM was in the news last night for weak quarterly sales and is labeled as one of the worst companies to work for. Good luck TWC & WSI.

HAHA Buenas Suerte LAS GENTES
Quoting 265. WeatherConvoy:


HAHA Buenas Suerte LAS GENTES


Dead serious it was on MSNBC's business channel. IBM has been reporting weak earnings for 13 straight QTR's.
Quoting 28. weathermanwannabe:

25. WeatherConvoy
12:14 PM EDT on October 29, 2015

Sounds like a great topic; you will be reading several of the papers on this subject from recent years to support your hypothesis. My wife is an English Prof; make sure you properly cite all your source material in the footnotes and bibliography............... :)

Thank you for the support weathermanwannabe. Have to be careful with sources for sure.
268. MahFL
Quoting 254. weathermanwannabe:

...Regardless of what our views may be on Chinese politics, or their positions on climate change, they will probably do a better job than the US had done the last several decades in addressing their issues and concerns...


Sorry but that is not true, Chinese politicians have a reputation for being corrupt.
Like you realize when Chapala hits that part of Africa, they have high poverty and horrible communication so.... um.. Yeah a lot of people are about to die and I bet no one, well if they do they have no clue what it's going to do.
Trivia question for anyone: What are the records for the most major (cat.3+) and cat.5 storms in any given year? (globally) ...we must be pretty close to the top of the rankings this year.
Quoting 180. MichaelDoran:

Yes but the storm is connected electrically to South America by conductive warm tropical oceans and the upper atmosphere by way of the ionosphere.


Looks like we got a live one here.

They aren't "electrically connected". It's also ridiculous to imply such a correlation, since by that line of reasoning you could tie just about any random event to any other random event. It would be like saying Patricia rapidly intensified in the Pacific because there are sandy beaches in Florida.

Magic is not needed to explain Patricia's intensification.
272. MahFL
China built whole cities that were not needed, talk about wasteful emissions, I mean whole cities, not a few sky scrapers.
Quoting 268. MahFL:



Sorry but that is not true, Chinese politicians have a reputation for being corrupt.


Perhaps but that is also a global issue; Halliburton comes to my mind as one example............................
Schools have been delayed 2 hours in my county (comal) and now wondering if schools will be cancelled with the way the rain keeps back building. Won't be surprised by the end of all this rain, areas will be getting a foot of rain or more. I'm sure i've gotten over 6 inches now.



Quoting 272. MahFL:

China built whole cities that were not needed, talk about wasteful emissions, I mean whole cities, not a few sky scrapers.

Western corpocrate make-believe.
Actually Detroit is no longer needed...
276. MahFL
Tornado damage this am in Texas.
277. MahFL
Quoting 275. cRRKampen:


Western corpocrate make-believe.
Actually Detroit is no longer needed...


Detroit though was fully populated, these were cities that were built to accommodate increasing financially well off Chinese people, which did not happen.
Quoting 256. LouisPasteur:

Stumbled across WUTV last night while flipping channels. There's 10 minutes of my life that I'll never get back.
Well, thanks for that profound, perspicacious, and helpful critique.
Quoting 266. StormTrackerScott:

Dead serious it was on MSNBC's business channel. IBM has been reporting weak earnings for 13 straight QTR's.
MSNBC has a business channel?

FWIW, IBM has been around over 100 years. It's had "weak earnings" or just over 3% of its history. I think they'll muddle through.
So, where is El Niño for Florida? It is not cooler (heat index of 96 yesterday) and we have had no rain. It is supposed to be this hot for another 2 weeks according to the forecast. After that I am assuming the same =(
Quoting 236. MichaelDoran:



Not that part no and I think if you read what he is saying that part may be postulation, but his overall points remain about traditional thinking about tornadoes lacks thermodynamic explanation--so I do think that there is an electrical complexity to the movements of clouds that can't be ignored, and not just tornadoes.
{snip}...
It's a lot more than postulation. It's a basic part of how he believes tornadoes and structures behave. If you don't believe the two points I noted are correct, what makes you think any of the rest of his theory is correct? The laws of thermodynamics and electrical energy are pretty well understood. We've had the greatest minds in both fields studying them for centuries. It's not only unlikely but defies credulity that a person with no apparent training in any of the fields mentioned has discovered a new physical force unknown until he wrote his paper. Even more troubling is this sentence from it --

"What we need is a space charge study that will incontrovertibly identify differences in electric charges in the air itself, inside and outside the inflow band. And that study has not been conducted. So absence of evidence in support cannot be cited as evidence against in this case."

This is exactly the case so often made by those with no education or experience in the scientific method. An "absence of evidence in support" is what happens when a theory is wrong. The concept of a "space charge study" is something no reputable scientist would do because the basic theory makes no sense. I'm not a scientist either, but one of the things I want to see before I start having any belief in a totally new theory is some support from those in the field. If you can find one reputable scientist in the field of meteorology or electromagnetism that believes that there's a connection between lighting in South America and Patricia undergoing RI, then I'd reconsider his theory.
Quoting 279. SecretStormNerd:

So, where is El Nio for Florida? It is not cooler (heat index of 96 yesterday) and we have had no rain. It is supposed to be this hot for another 2 weeks according to the forecast. After that I am assuming the same =(


The most impacts will be felt in Winter and Spring once the Winter Cold fronts and stronger Gulf lows get started in earnest.......Give it about a month or two then it will be rock and roll until late Spring once the split-flow jet pattern settles in over Conus.
I believe you Scott. Truly I do. Its a bad move. I trust you completely on the Business sector side
Quoting 274. SouthCentralTx:

Schools have been delayed 2 hours in my county (comal) and now wondering if schools will be cancelled with the way the rain keeps back building. Won't be surprised by the end of all this rain, areas will be getting a foot of rain or more. I'm sure i've gotten over 6 inches now.






Its coming down now in downtown Austin where I work with frequent lightning. I'm keeping an eye on Shoal Creek which is right behind our office. Its up about three feet, but the impact isn't usually seen until the main precip travels over the North Austin area.
285. MahFL
Anaridis on TWC just announced she is pregnant !
Wow. Now up to 10%





ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent significant development of this system while it moves
westward near 15 mph over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Blake
Quoting 279. SecretStormNerd:

So, where is El Niño for Florida? It is not cooler (heat index of 96 yesterday) and we have had no rain. It is supposed to be this hot for another 2 weeks according to the forecast. After that I am assuming the same =(
It's coming, but it won't hit south Florida until about Christmas. El Nino's tend to have their greatest climatic effects as they begin to weaken, and that should start happening toward the end of this year. I'm certainly hoping that the cool and wet pattern sets in here in SE AL, since temperatures have been well above normal while precipitation remains well below normal. I do remember 1982 in California, wondering if we were ever going to get any rain out this El Nino thing (which wasn't such a big deal then) and, sure enough, the rain arrived on New Year's Day. I then spent three days in a boat doing water rescues, as northern California got a year's worth of rain in those three days. It was during those three days I also learned Gore Tex wasn't waterproof, regardless of the sales claims. :-)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
843 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR MUCH OF COMAL COUNTY...WESTERN PARTS
OF HAYS COUNTY AND FAR NORTHWEST BEXAR COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 835 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BRIDGE OVER
CYPRESS CREEK THAT MAY BE COMPROMISED...WITH EVACUATIONS TAKING
PLACE IN THE WIMBERLEY AREA. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN BEXAR COUNTY...NEARLY ALL OF COMAL
COUNTY...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF HAYS COUNTY. SEVERAL GAUGE
REPORTS OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE WARNED
AREA...AND RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES MAY
HAVE FALLEN OVER A FEW LOCATIONS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR MUCH OF COMAL COUNTY...WESTERN
PARTS OF HAYS COUNTY AND FAR NORTHWEST BEXAR COUNTY. PEOPLE IN
AND NEAR THE CIBOLO CREEK...COMAL RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR
CANYON LAKE...AND THE BLANCO RIVER AS WELL AS THEIR TRIBUTARIES
SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NEW BRAUNFELS...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...CANYON LAKE DAM...
FAIR OAKS RANCH...CANYON LAKE...BULVERDE...SHAVANO PARK...
WOODCREEK...SPRING BRANCH...HENLY...LEON SPRINGS...CROSS
MOUNTAIN...TIMBERWOOD PARK...FISCHER...THE DOMINION...MOUNT
GAINOR...SATTLER...ANHALT AND GRUENE.
Quoting 242. MichaelDoran:



It's interesting to me a poster was critical of Chandler's background as a programmer when indeed our models are computer programs. As if it's a disqualification.


Socrates is man. I am a man. Therefore, I am Socrates.

Being a programmer doesn't mean you can write weather forecasting models, or even be able to understand them. If you take some web developer and drop the GFS code base in front of them it is very unlikely they would be able to make heads or tails out of it except at the most superficial levels. You'd likely have the same situation if you took a scientific programmer and drop something like the Facebook source in his/her lap. It's called domain experience.

I also have to say perhaps out of context but perhaps right on in a blog about another point record, is that the common reaction seems to be get more data points. There are two more buoys off the coast of California in an El Nino year, one poster writes. The more recent plans of our government is to apply the latest greatest computer and then have more grid points to make the model of climate better. Here is what the problem with this is--if you have an electrical complexity electrical currents can move around those data points and never be registered.


The problem is you are following an unsubstantiated (and, quite frankly, all but incoherent) hypothesis and deriving imaginary scenarios and then using that to discredit well known science. That's not how this game works.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Neither you nor the originator of that hypothesis has provided any sort of predictive or even observational evidence other than some cherry picked anecdotes that just happen to fit the narrative. That's not science.

Here is a hypo. Say you have a room with multiple temperature readings you can use. Then inside that room is a heating element and an electrical wire to it from outside the room. Let's say then that what you are monitoring is how the room changes from heat coming and going through a window. If you increase the data points inside the room so you have more temperature readings do you think you are going to end up with a better model of what is occurring inside the room if you don't have a handle on the heating element and the electrical wires to it? Or to give it a biological context, a handle of the person who is turning the heating element on and off? That's the problem is the electrical currents can move in these tiny pathways that our data, even with smaller grid size, don't capture, and our computers, even super fast processing, are not calculating.


The problem here is that you don't understand the fundamental science involved in forecasting or otherwise. You're rather amusing "hypo" also demonstrates a lack of understanding when it comes to constructing a multi-dimensional model.

But let's forgo that discussion and focus more on the fundamental premise. The amount of energy required to spin up a storm like Patricia dwarfs by orders of magnitude any electrical energy that it could possibly ever tap into, regardless of how much you want trample on electrodynamics in the process. However, there is plenty of thermal energy available and current meteorological science seems to have no problem explaining such phenomena.

The models do not PERFORM science. Models are developed FROM science. They are tools, not oracles. And since they are models, there will always be errors. We never have perfect information to feed a model. We lack the the technology and computational resources to run a "perfect" model, even if we could achieve the impossible "perfect data". Hence why the models are JUST ONE source of information that is used when determining things like intensification, track, etc. of storms.
Sar you are making a straw man argument. Both in terms of his pedigree and his basic argument that there is an electro mechanical complexity to the way tornadoes work.

If you of course watched a movie like Twister the researchers were trying to put measuring balls inside of a tornado to see how it worked.

I myself am interested in how electrical features OUTSIDE of a tornado cause them to be extreme. What I have found is that those features exist and do in fact cause them to occur to extremes, so the idea that there is an electrical complexity is confirmed to me. I don't know the exact mechanism, which is in part what he is postulating about, but certainly there are more to what he is saying about their behaviors not being fully explained without an electrical element.

I have been studying and probably have posted here about the SOI index rising and severe weather events in the CONUS, and why that is about charges moving from the western tropical Pacific to the east and how that then impacts severe weather and why it must be electrical because it's too FAST to be another mechanism (heat and pressure don't move instantaneously).

There are MANY MANY more examples I have of this, so I am going to go about it in a more vague and empirical way.

And again on the programmer slam, the MODELS, which are both an application of meteorology and PROGRAMMING, there was a problem with a storm called Mitch with the models. It earned the nick name--the Mitch wobble around places like this where we chatted like maybe TWC bb, I don't remember. In any event, we had a similar strange movement with the Jo and it made Jo Bastardi cry about the models. A good programmer might in fact be first to tell you a meteorologist you have a GIGO problem . . . well I am basically a mathematician who confirms. It's electrical.

Quoting 277. MahFL:



Detroit though was fully populated, these were cities that were built to accommodate increasing financially well off Chinese people, which did not happen.

Please source, preferably non-Murdoch.
Quoting 275. cRRKampen:


Western corpocrate make-believe.
Actually Detroit is no longer needed...
There's a good article here about those Chinese "ghost cities". Why they exist makes perfect sense once you understand the Chinese communist state planning system.

We also don't "need" the Randstad either. That doesn't mean it has ceased to have any useful purpose.
Two Tornadic thunderstorms SE of Austin are triggering a tornado warning for Travis County now.
"But let's forgo that discussion and focus more on the fundamental premise. The amount of energy required to spin up a storm like Patricia dwarfs by orders of magnitude any electrical energy that it could possibly ever tap into, regardless of how much you want trample on electrodynamics in the process. However, there is plenty of thermal energy available and current meteorological science seems to have no problem explaining such phenomena."

I had this discussion with a physics professor in the late 1990s regarding space weather and tropical storms. My comment was that xrays and solar winds interacted with the upper atmosphere and created ion changes that then impacted how tropical storms behaved and his opinion was similar in that the amount of solar winds were enough current to power a refrigerator and not enough to power a hurricane. Since I had a number of what I would call solorists who posted and were making accurate predictions with space weather respecting tropical storms, I again was skeptical of his view. Shear is the big problem here, because shear can take the top off a storm and prevent the latent heat of the ocean from being used. So my opinion is that it's a complexity, which isn't the same thing as 'powering' the whole storm, but that the electrical energies are more than sufficient to make a difference.

Space weather is very important for tropical storms. 1914 was a very quiet year in the Atlantic and there were no sun spots that year. The most recent valley of the sun spot cycle was also a very quiet year globally.

Space weather is electrical.
I just wonder what kind of impact Champala will have on the situation in Yemen...
Okay, I'll be honest WUTV is cool, better than normal TWC but it is not what I though it would be. I was expecting things like these blog posts going into all these theories and averages for regions and talking about like yeah..... Someone else gets it
One of the reason the European model kicked American butt was that model has a better handle on THUNDERSTORMS.

Mmmm.
Quoting 297. MichaelDoran:

One of the reason the European model kicked American butt was that model has a better handle on THUNDERSTORMS.

Mmmm.


It's because the Euro is run at higher res :-)
It also has better data input.
Nothing more.
thanks for the article sar2401. the ghost cities are fascinating.

also another reason I doubt massive population growth is going to happen there is there are far more people in China older than 40 than there are younger (there was a baby boom of sorts between 1965-1975, and a smaller one in the 90s), and more men than women (the imbalance is especially profound in the 0-14 age group and also in 15-24 age group).

back to weather: where can I find good model sources for Chapala? Thanks.
Continuing to get bumpy in Texas:


Valid WW Image
Quoting 290. MichaelDoran:

Sar you are making a straw man argument. Both in terms of his pedigree and his basic argument that there is an electro mechanical complexity to the way tornadoes work.

If you of course watched a movie like Twister the researchers were trying to put measuring balls inside of a tornado to see how it worked.
{snip}..
Xyrus posted a good answer to your points in #289 so I won't plow the same ground. What happened in a movie like "Twister" explains nothing about how tornadoes actually behave. It was fiction, like this electromagnetic idea for tornadoes. What I do want to address is the idea of peddigree. Let's say your transmission went out. You have two choices. One is a guy with a lot of tools, no experience, no education in transmissions, and no customers you can call to see how he did on their transmission. He not only believes he can fix your transmission, but he's come up with a new theory about how transmissions really work, and can repair yours so it will never fail again. The other choice is a person with long experience repairing transmissions, at least some OJT in a garage for a number of years, and has lots of customers you can contact to see what kind of job he did. Which one would you pick to work on your car?

I suspect none of what I've written will make any difference to you because you are a true believer in Chandler's ideas. That's fine, and you are entitled to your beliefs. What you're not entitled to is presenting beliefs as facts and expecting all of us to nod our heads in agreement. When you do that here, you're going get other people like me that question those beliefs.
Beautiful Fall sunrise this morning on the NW FL Gulf Coast...



See a couple more photos from this morning Link
Quoting 271. Xyrus2000:



Looks like we got a live one here.

They aren't "electrically connected". It's also ridiculous to imply such a correlation, since by that line of reasoning you could tie just about any random event to any other random event. It would be like saying Patricia rapidly intensified in the Pacific because there are sandy beaches in Florida.

Magic is not needed to explain Patricia's intensification.


Conductivity increases about one percent for each degF. So it's not JUST the latent heat of the El Nino but a combination of two things. First is a relatively more conductive pathway between Patricia and the heavy seasonal lightning in South America and the tropics (its at the end of global peak lightning which produces the maximum electrical currents for a tropical storm like Patricia). Second the warmer the oceans the less carbonation they can contain. This is why a warm beer goes flat fast. Less carbonation in warm oceans makes it harder for a surface low to remove carbonation and put them in the local clouds to enhance the electromechanical nature of the ions involved with CO2 dissolved. That means fewer clouds between Patricia and South America over the Nino 1,2 oceans. The pathway becomes relatively conductive.
Quoting 300. terstorm:

thanks for the article sar2401. the ghost cities are fascinating.

also another reason I doubt massive population growth is going to happen there is there are far more people in China older than 40 than there are younger (there was a baby boom of sorts between 1965-1975, and a smaller one in the 90s), and more men than women (the imbalance is especially profound in the 0-14 age group and also in 15-24 age group).

back to weather: where can I find good model sources for Chapala? Thanks.

The history of the world since about 1900 is that increasing prosperity and urbanization has led to lower overall birth rates. I don't see why that shouldn't be the case with China as well. Even state planning can't overcome the desires of people to live a better life. Once children stopped being farm implements, the natural impulse is to limit family size.

You can find all the normal models we use at Tropical Tidbits. Just change the region with the button on the bottom left to the Indian Ocean.
Quoting 304. MichaelDoran:



Conductivity increases about one percent for each degF. So it's not JUST the latent heat of the El Nino but a combination of two things. First is a relatively more conductive pathway between Patricia and the heavy seasonal lightning in South America and the tropics (its at the end of global peak lightning which produces the maximum electrical currents for a tropical storm like Patricia). Second the warmer the oceans the less carbonation they can contain. This is why a warm beer goes flat fast. Less carbonation in warm oceans makes it harder for a surface low to remove carbonation and put them in the local clouds to enhance the electromechanical nature of the ions involved with CO2 dissolved. That means fewer clouds between Patricia and South America over the Nino 1,2 oceans. The pathway becomes relatively conductive.


Carbonation? WHAT Carbonation?

This is going to go into AGW-denial, isn't it?
307. MahFL
Quoting 295. FunnelVortex:

I just wonder what kind of impact Champala will have on the situation in Yemen...


Which specific situation are you referring to ?
Sar,
Don't compare me to a car repairman with a novel theory on how to replace a transmission and I won't call you too lazy to enter into a discussion so you resort to flaming.

Of course Twister is fiction, but my point remains. If there is in fact a forcing that fosters development of severe weather outside of a storm nothing studied inside the storm is going to do anything other than predict what is occurring at the time it occurs, which is more reporting than forecasting.

(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Vis0)))) )))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Quoting 308. MichaelDoran:

Sar,
Don't compare me to a car repairman with a novel theory on how to replace a transmission and I won't call you too lazy to enter into a discussion so you resort to flaming.

Of course Twister is fiction, but my point remains. If there is in fact a forcing that fosters development of severe weather outside of a storm nothing studied inside the storm is going to do anything other than predict what is occurring at the time it occurs, which is more reporting than forecasting.


Hello Mike..Tornadoes are still not fully understood. The data recorded within the past 15 years has helped get a handle on the physics, but not the entire birth to death process. Twin tornadoes and multiple vortex tornadoes are complex, and differ from the one vort type. The positive/negative charge thing is interesting...Lot of energy to consider.
For the first time in the 6 years that I have lived in the Hill Country I am stranded at home because my bridge to get out is underwater.


Quality isn't that good and it's an iphone picture.
Quoting 290. MichaelDoran:


Perhaps you should check your argument with visO for his opinion.

modify comment:
(Someone [capeflorida] already thought of that.)
Quoting 306. FunnelVortex:



Carbonation? WHAT Carbonation?

This is going to go into AGW-denial, isn't it?


Denial no. Complexity yes. Studies at Harvard of Hurricane Felix (Bates 2003) showed that the oceans lost about 1/3 their carbonation to Felix. The study was indeed part of the carbon cycle research. To me however it's interesting proof that proximate to a tropical storm the clouds will have relatively more carbonation, and that is part of an electrical complexity. It then becomes a signal noise thing about other clouds and how they use electrical energy to enhance them or not.

Post 311 SCT

"For the first time in the 6 years that I have lived in the Hill Country I am stranded at home because my bridge to get out is underwater."

Hopefully it stays just an overwash and you don't lose it or you might be stranded just a bit longer.
Please SCT, don't even consider going across!

Quoting 311. SouthCentralTx:

For the first time in the 6 years that I have lived in the Hill Country I am stranded at home because my bridge to get out is underwater.


Quality isn't that good and it's an iphone picture.

Quoting 315. capeflorida:

Please SCT, don't even consider going across!




Oh no not a chance, not gonna get killed doing something stupid. :)
Quoting 308. MichaelDoran:

Sar,
Don't compare me to a car repairman with a novel theory on how to replace a transmission and I won't call you too lazy to enter into a discussion so you resort to flaming.

Of course Twister is fiction, but my point remains. If there is in fact a forcing that fosters development of severe weather outside of a storm nothing studied inside the storm is going to do anything other than predict what is occurring at the time it occurs, which is more reporting than forecasting.


And you accuse me of setting up straw man? I believe you are the only person that would think I compared you to a car repairman. I also can't imagine anyone would think I was flaming. Believe me, if I was lazy, I wouldn't have taken the time to reply to your theories. At any rate, it's clear nothing I say will make any difference. The only way for me to handle this is put you on the ignore list so I don't clog things up with yet more useless back and forth.
Quoting 313. MichaelDoran:



Denial no. Complexity yes. Studies at Harvard of Hurricane Felix (Bates 2003) showed that the oceans lost about 1/3 their carbonation to Felix. The study was indeed part of the carbon cycle research. To me however it's interesting proof that proximate to a tropical storm the clouds will have relatively more carbonation, and that is part of an electrical complexity. It then becomes a signal noise thing about other clouds and how they use electrical energy to enhance them or not.


The entire ocean lost a third of its carbon due to a single hurricane? Proof?
Quoting 307. MahFL:

Which specific situation are you referring to ?

Yemen refugees choosing to return to a failed state
BBC, By Naomi Grimley Global affairs correspondent, 30 October 2015
Excerpt: Back to Somalia
Perhaps the most striking thing about this particular refugee crisis is that many of those fleeing Yemen originally went there to get away from problems in their homeland.
Before it descended into violence, Yemen was a host country to 250,000 Somalis. They had originally fled the civil war in Somalia in the 1990s and had crossed the sea in search of safety and work.
Now a substantial number of them are retracing their steps back to Somalia because it is more attractive than staying in an even worse war-torn country.


Umm, the latest I've read and posted in here was that Somalis are still fleeing to Yemen. Looks like this has changed. Must be really bad in Yemen now, even without a Cat 4/5 heading their way.

Edit: Fri Oct 30, 2015 5:52am EDT, Reuters: U.N. warns of dire food situation in Yemen's Taiz
Excerpt: Ten of Yemen's 22 governorates were assessed as being in an emergency food situation in June, one step below famine on a five-point scale. The assessment has not been updated since then, partly because experts have not managed to get sufficient access to survey the situation. About a third of the country's population, or 7.6 million people urgently require food aid, the WFP said.

Latest Chapala loop until sun set:

Source.
Quoting 311. SouthCentralTx:

For the first time in the 6 years that I have lived in the Hill Country I am stranded at home because my bridge to get out is underwater.


Quality isn't that good and it's an iphone picture.

Texas seems to constantly get hammered with these rain storms this year. While you've been getting too much rain, I've been getting too little. Maybe the effects of El Nino will finally adjust things. I sure hope so for both our sakes.
Quoting 278. Neapolitan:

Well, thanks for that profound, perspicacious, and helpful critique.




My apologies if my critique wasn't up to your standards. I will expand on my assessment a little:

My impression of the ten minutes that I observed was that the hosts were juvenile, insipid, pandering and their presentation was devoid of any meaningful intelligence. The sole tidbit of consequence presented was that the network has proscribed the employment of the term "Indian Summer" as it is by some rationale considered impertinent. Political correctness run amok.
Quoting 307. MahFL:



Which specific situation are you referring to ?


What Barbamz posted
Quoting 320. sar2401:
Texas seems to constantly get hammered with these rain storms this year. While you've been getting too much rain, I've been getting too little. Maybe the effects of El Nino will finally adjust things. I sure hope so for both our sakes.


Perhaps the atmosphere over Texas has become unduly carbonated by the drop in the Mexican peso ;-)
Nothing like waking up to really "fowl" weather. Austin is under the gun now with flooding and tornadoes in the area. And yesterday was such a nice tranquil day.
325. ADCS
Quoting 320. sar2401:

Texas seems to constantly get hammered with these rain storms this year. While you've been getting too much rain, I've been getting too little. Maybe the effects of El Nino will finally adjust things. I sure hope so for both our sakes.


El Nino generally brings the rain for Texas. The droughts, in part, have been on account of there not being a strong one in quite some time.
326. MahFL
Quoting 320. sar2401:

Texas seems to constantly get hammered with these rain storms this year. While you've been getting too much rain, I've been getting too little. Maybe the effects of El Nino will finally adjust things. I sure hope so for both our sakes.


Actually TX went from drought to flood, back to drought and now in some parts flash flooding. Just saw some pumpkins being swept away in the raging flash flooding near Austin TX.
Quoting 318. FunnelVortex:



The entire ocean lost a third of its carbon due to a single hurricane? Proof?


Not sure how deep they went but along the course of the storm where the lower pressure and roiling winds were. Shake a beer and crack it open. It's pretty straight forward to me. That carbonation is then there to go into the clouds of Felix and be moved electromechanically in a relative way.
Quoting 304. MichaelDoran:



Conductivity increases about one percent for each degF. So it's not JUST the latent heat of the El Nino but a combination of two things. First is a relatively more conductive pathway between Patricia and the heavy seasonal lightning in South America and the tropics (its at the end of global peak lightning which produces the maximum electrical currents for a tropical storm like Patricia). Second the warmer the oceans the less carbonation they can contain. This is why a warm beer goes flat fast. Less carbonation in warm oceans makes it harder for a surface low to remove carbonation and put them in the local clouds to enhance the electromechanical nature of the ions involved with CO2 dissolved. That means fewer clouds between Patricia and South America over the Nino 1,2 oceans. The pathway becomes relatively conductive.

I know warmer liquids hold more than cooler (supersaturated needs warmer) ie, the hotter the iron coming from the inside of the blast furnace the more carbon it holds (also higher pressure in the furnace) and to supersaturate sugar in water you have to heat it up. The carbonation in beer or pop is more of a function of the pressure isn't it?
The current set-up over Texas is almost similar to the Patricia scenario; moisture from the E-Pac and Mexico is feeding across to Texas along the Southern Jet:



Quoting 313. MichaelDoran:



Denial no. Complexity yes. Studies at Harvard of Hurricane Felix (Bates 2003) showed that the oceans lost about 1/3 their carbonation to Felix. The study was indeed part of the carbon cycle research. To me however it's interesting proof that proximate to a tropical storm the clouds will have relatively more carbonation, and that is part of an electrical complexity. It then becomes a signal noise thing about other clouds and how they use electrical energy to enhance them or not.

Could be from the stirring up, Water is used to clean BF Gas (high CO, CO2), and as it cools and is stirred up in the troughs it releases some of the gases.
With the low to the West over Arizona helping push the whole mess along to the East:

Quoting 320. sar2401:

Texas seems to constantly get hammered with these rain storms this year. While you've been getting too much rain, I've been getting too little. Maybe the effects of El Nino will finally adjust things. I sure hope so for both our sakes.

The reason for all the fun weather is "El Nino". Been around theses parts long enough to know.
Quoting 306. FunnelVortex:



Carbonation? WHAT Carbonation?

This is going to go into AGW-denial, isn't it?


No. Not all "interesting" assumptions are automatically placed under "AGW-denial". ;)
Quoting 312. ChiThom:



It's probably a fair feedback in the sense that I am calling the meteorological family as having a tunnel vision to only look and heat and pressure. Sometimes you can get this 'family' to admit that severe weather causes lightning, but it's almost impossible to get a discussion on if the cause of the lightning is also the cause of the severe weather. So yes I do accuse those who in college decided to avoid electrical engineering to go into fluid dynamics of avoiding an electrical complexity, but then the electrical engineer decided to avoid the fluid dynamics too. Let me be the mathematician who saw you both and calls both of you out as having tunnel vision.

But instead of name calling, I intend to make empirical observations and if it gets under your skin a little, than I know I am doing it right.

Probably the most obvious one, and it used to bug me a lot when an operational meteorologist kept bringing it up when I was a warmer years ago, but he pointed out that the warming was occurring in the northern hemisphere and that was contrary to a theory of CO2 as a GHG, which would predict a more uniform warming. It gets more specific with the Arctic, and as a mathematician, I can explain this with some precision. You can call this tunnel vision, I don't mind, really. The problem is that the melting of the Arctic ice sheet is very specific in terms of TIME. It's melting with anomalies 2-3 standard deviations between 8/15-10/15. Most of you would just say that's the max and leave it at that. But it's important to note that a GHG warming base on a radiative trapping would predict a much earlier melt anomaly as that's when the 24 hour sun hits the Arctic. But PEAK GLOBAL LIGHTNING is from 8/15-10/15. And if you do the math on the 2-3 standard deviations we have seen in the Arctic melting over the past few years, what you have is odds of a million to one that this melting occur by random chance. If you combine it with the TIMING of it, exactly with peak global lightning . . .

Lightning occurs more in the northern hemisphere because 90 percent of lightning occurs over land and there is much more land in the northern hemisphere, pretty much simple as that. And with more lightning in the northern hemisphere, this means that the forcing of CO2 is being expressed electrically, it would predict that the warming would occur in the northern hemisphere. I wish that operational meteorologist Tom was his name, was around to deal with me now, because he never took his skepticism to the next step and used what he thought was true and explain why it was. He never took the next step, because he wasn't interested in the science of climate, but the politics, IMHO.

The same is true of the Carboniferous period, an epoch known for high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. What is NOT discussed is during that time most of the land was over the south pole, and hence the amount of global lightning differed, and hence the amount of CO2 to bring a balanced climate had to be different to account for the lower powered global electrical circuit. I wish Tom was around to deal with me on that one now.

So yes I am not a denialist, but I am not exactly a warmer either. There is a complexity that gets to CO2 and cloud behaviors that is electrical.
Quoting 332. MrNatural:


The reason for all the fun weather is "El Nino". Been around theses parts long enough to know.


Decarbonation in the tropics and the sub tropical jet changes cloud behaviors. No one has really done a very good job of explaining just exactly how an el Nino differs from other teleconnection conditions. Indeed the teleconnections all have been poorly explained in terms of mechanism and cloud behaviors.
Quoting 333. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No. Not all "interesting" assumptions are automatically placed under "AGW-denial". ;)


Sorry, it just gave me a flashback to that stupid "Global Warming Swindle" video where they claimed that supernovas in deep space caused the oceans to release their carbon which is the cause of global warming or something dumb like that.
You know, the whole Mentos-into-Diet-Coke-geyser thing went viral in September of 2005. Could it be that the thousands of copycats who saw that video and reenacted it released enough carbonation into the atmosphere to lead directly to the incredible length of that hurricane season, including the formation of Cat 5 hurricanes Rita and Wilma (strongest WH storm ever at the time)?



I think someone should draw up a theory and submit it for publication. Just make sure to give me first or second credit...
Quoting 313. MichaelDoran:



Denial no. Complexity yes. Studies at Harvard of Hurricane Felix (Bates 2003) showed that the oceans lost about 1/3 their carbonation to Felix. The study was indeed part of the carbon cycle research. To me however it's interesting proof that proximate to a tropical storm the clouds will have relatively more carbonation, and that is part of an electrical complexity. It then becomes a signal noise thing about other clouds and how they use electrical energy to enhance them or not.


Which Hurricane Felix are we referring to here?
Quoting 323. Greg01:



Perhaps the atmosphere over Texas has become unduly carbonated by the drop in the Mexican peso ;-)
Now that's a possibility I hadn't thought of. :-0

What impresses me is not that El Nino is supposed to cause more rain for Texas. It's that the rain only seems to come in these torrential storms with nothing in between. I don't think that's typical of El Nino rains in the Southeast but I also haven't looked at the details for the past El Ninos to know.
Quoting 336. FunnelVortex:



Sorry, it just gave me a flashback to that stupid "Global Warming Swindle" video where they claimed that supernovas in deep space caused the oceans to release their carbon which is the cause of global warming or something dumb like that.


Or new stars from the center of the Milky Way with the heat radiating along the spirals all the way to the Earth:

http://news.sciencemag.org/space/2015/10/astronom ers-find-disk-young-stars-near-center-milky-way

Astronomers find disk of young stars near center of Milky Way



Astronomers have long thought that the bulge at the center of our Milky Way galaxy is populated with very old stars. But a survey of the area has revealed an unexpected feature: a disk of much younger stars hidden among the veterans.
Quoting 333. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No. Not all "interesting" assumptions are automatically placed under "AGW-denial". ;)
I've read some of this same logic previously. It's only from denialist websites that I see it, so it seems to be a safe assumption that this is just more denialist ranting. That will all be confirmed as the argument descends further into wackiness.
Chapala has become an impressive Arabian Sea cyclone, might hit the equivalent of category 5, very rare for that part of the North Indian Ocean basin.

Washington Post's Angela Fritz, Chapala: "The rapidly intensifying Cyclone Chapala is spinning westward through the northern Indian Ocean, challenging the strongest storm on record in the Arabian Sea, and threatening just the third hurricane-strength landfall on record for the Arabian Peninsula. Though the storm is expected to weaken before landfall, more than 20 inches of rain are in the forecast for the incredibly arid region." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weathe r-gang/wp/2015/10/30/cyclone-chapala-among-stronge st-storms-on-record-in-arabian-sea-targeting-yemen /?postshare=2191446217849073
Quoting 339. sar2401:

Now that's a possibility I hadn't thought of. :-0

What impresses me is not that El Nino is supposed to cause more rain for Texas. It's that the rain only seems to come in these torrential storms with nothing in between. I don't think that's typical of El Nino rains in the Southeast but I also haven't looked at the details for the past El Ninos to know.


It's really quite common to have some sort of flood in October here, the El Nino is just making it more extreme. It was just 2 years ago except it was on the night of the 30/31 where we had a foot of rain too. The air just has better lift when the winds coming off the gulf hits these hills. The thing that I have never understood about these flood events is they always happen in the middle of the night or in the morning.

As for the Southeast who knows, wpc does show 3-4 inches in areas there. :)
Quoting 339. sar2401:
Now that's a possibility I hadn't thought of. :-0

What impresses me is not that El Nino is supposed to cause more rain for Texas. It's that the rain only seems to come in these torrential storms with nothing in between. I don't think that's typical of El Nino rains in the Southeast but I also haven't looked at the details for the past El Ninos to know.


In Houston we tend to get a lot of heavy rains this time of the year, as cold fronts collide with warm gulf air. My recollection of El Ninos is that it brings somewhat lower temps, but doesn't add much to the rain totals. I don't keep records by any means, just vague recollections.
Last 7 days of US weather in 13 seconds.
Today marks the 5th anniversary of hurricane Thomas which severely affected the island of St. Lucia on that date 2010
Quoting 337. Neapolitan:

You know, the whole Mentos-into-Diet-Coke-geyser thing went viral in September of 2005. Could it be that the thousands of copycats who saw that video and reenacted it released enough carbonation into the atmosphere to lead directly to the incredible length of that hurricane season, including the formation of Cat 5 hurricanes Rita and Wilma (strongest WH storm ever at the time)?



I think someone should draw up a theory and submit it for publication. Just make sure to give me first or second credit...


Nice.

Well there are two main sources of near shore ocean carbonation that I have tried to understand over the years. The first is rivers and the second, closely related, are the methane hydrate fields that line the continents like rings on a bath tube under about 1,200 feet of ocean or more. What happens is the hydrate fields are sensitive to rivers and when the hydrates unform for lack of sediment cover etc the released methane is quickly converted to carbonation by the microbial biosphere.

Where has that played out? Most interesting to me is Hoover dam and the hydrate fields in the Gulf of California. Immediately after the Colorado was diverted the dust bowl of the 30s . . .

But there are more examples of river changes and in the Gulf of Mexico there were giant dead zones before Katrina, Rita in the GOM.

Similar changes in the Orinoco river in Venezuela.

If you go to the early 80s there are changes in CV storms related to massive dams built in south America.

Go thru the Unisys system and review the storms relative to river changes like I have and you start to see a pattern. With that one again I will accept tunnel vision characterizations no problem.

Patricia and for that matter the severe drought here in California where I am are related to two HUGE dams on the rio grande de Santiago that flows into the Gulf of California. Those dams restrict flow during the so called rainy season up here in California and release during the hurricane season. I think it impacts the behavior of the Pacific high and the RRR. There are huge methane hydrate fields in the mouth of the Santiago.

If you do a google earth you can get a sat picture of the first dam and just follow the river downflow to the second one. The lakes are massive. The dams impact sedimentation and flow, and sedimentation in particular is important for the hydrate fields.

Up and down the west coast the hydrate fields are leaking methane. There have been several news stories about it, as there is a study on the hydrate fields in the Pacific northwest. Where its going to get bad is there are massive hydrate fields in the Arctic.

So don't worry about me not being a warmer, as I am a much bigger alarmist than you warmers with your garden of eden will ever be. Super storms are coming and billions of people are going to die or be displaced as neo glacial storms ARE coming.
Quoting 308. MichaelDoran:

Sar,
Don't compare me to a car repairman with a novel theory on how to replace a transmission and I won't call you too lazy to enter into a discussion so you resort to flaming.

Of course Twister is fiction, but my point remains. If there is in fact a forcing that fosters development of severe weather outside of a storm nothing studied inside the storm is going to do anything other than predict what is occurring at the time it occurs, which is more reporting than forecasting.


The film, Twister, was inspired by the first VORTEX experiments in the early 90s, which (experiments) did gain some understanding of tornadoes previously unknown. If you follow severe, it doesn't take long to realize many experienced, expert severe weather forecasters take a long look the atmospheric mesoscale conditions the day of, and to some extent, ballon obs from previous days. They don't "just" follow the models. So, the good forecasters look at surroundings, as much as they are able. Yes, the data from these surroundings may come from sat obs but it also comes from ground (and atmospheric) obs.

I don't thnk anyone will ever be able to predict, except on a fluke, the exact location where a tornado will form. I hope not anyway. At that point human arrogance would take over.

Ps. Thanks again for your comments.

(adds: in parentheses)
Quoting 345. Greg01:



In Houston we tend to get a lot of heavy rains this time of the year, as cold fronts collide with warm gulf air. My recollection of El Ninos is that it brings somewhat lower temps, but doesn't add much to the rain totals. I don't keep records by any means, just vague recollections.
But the return flow from the Gulf hasn't been all that great compared to other heavy rain events. We get the same kind of collisions here but only get heavy rain events when the return flow is in place with high dewpoints and high PWATS. We haven't had heavy rains, even when conditions were perfect. The rains we have had all have tended toward the torrential rather than soaking variety though. We are supposed to get up to two inches over the weekend. I hope the prediction is right for once. Since September 28, I've had a grand total of 0.38" of rain, probably less that you've gotten in five minutes. :-(
Quoting 337. Neapolitan:

You know, the whole Mentos-into-Diet-Coke-geyser thing went viral in September of 2005. Could it be that the thousands of copycats who saw that video and reenacted it released enough carbonation into the atmosphere to lead directly to the incredible length of that hurricane season, including the formation of Cat 5 hurricanes Rita and Wilma (strongest WH storm ever at the time)?



I think someone should draw up a theory and submit it for publication. Just make sure to give me first or second credit...


I'm sure more carbon comes out of a single smokestack daily than thousands of Coke bottles.
Quoting 335. MichaelDoran:



Decarbonation in the tropics and the sub tropical jet changes cloud behaviors. No one has really done a very good job of explaining just exactly how an el Nino differs from other teleconnection conditions. Indeed the teleconnections all have been poorly explained in terms of mechanism and cloud behaviors.

Lots of big words.....Maybe it would be best to stick to actual cause and effect. It's not uncommon for a relationship to exist but to not be clearly explained or understood. Quite frankly, this is not the case.
There might still be a slight oppurtunity for the catl disturbance to be a significant rain maker and maybe something more as it continue to track towards the island chain. shear is expected to be to lessen in the coming days although not conducive for development.
Quoting 327. MichaelDoran:



Not sure how deep they went but along the course of the storm where the lower pressure and roiling winds were. Shake a beer and crack it open. It's pretty straight forward to me. That carbonation is then there to go into the clouds of Felix and be moved electromechanically in a relative way.


Along the path of Felix they found a third of carbonation had been removed. Makes more sense at least. So carbonation gets sucked into the core which feeds an electromagnetic increase and storms increase within a given storm? We know the loading of carbon dioxide has the oceans acidifying and other feedback results are still being studied. Find it plausible that an increase in CO2 in our oceans can have some electromechanical feedback on tropical systems that may be a factor in stronger storms being seen. What are the unknown feedback consequences of AGW? That's the big question. With SST's at an all time high, and much of the world's heat being pushed 30-300 feet deep in the oceans, there will be big consequences. We're already seeing ocean life suffer like never before and coastal areas will have a land heat feedback from increasing ocean temperatures. It's like bouncing a ball down the stairs, starts off slow and then faster and faster now.
Quoting 351. FunnelVortex:



I'm sure more carbon comes out of a single smokestack daily than thousands of Coke bottles.
Sigh...
It would be nice to see the Atlantic wave hold together enough to bring some rain to the Antilles as noted but not looking too good at the moment as the convection is drying up:



357. MahFL
Quoting 342. Stoopid1:

Chapala has become an impressive Arabian Sea cyclone, might hit the equivalent of category 5, very rare for that part of the North Indian Ocean basin.




It's at 155mph, it's a Super Cyclone.
Quoting 346. tropicofcancer:

Last 7 days of US weather in 13 seconds.

Ya know, I hate YouTube. Did anyone else get suckered into watching the video of the model airplane show at Cotsford, England? A giant model of a Avro Vulcan bomber that's actually jet powered. It has retractable gear and a working bomb bay. Dang! That's a little more than my my RC models when I was younger. :-)
Nice image of Africa with Chapala off the Horn of Africa to the right:




Quoting 355. Neapolitan:

Sigh...


I wonder if he heard the whoosh...
Quoting 334. MichaelDoran:



It's probably a fair feedback in the sense that I am calling the meteorological family as having a tunnel vision to only look and heat and pressure. Sometimes you can get this 'family' to admit that severe weather causes lightning, but it's almost impossible to get a discussion on if the cause of the lightning is also the cause of the severe weather. So yes I do accuse those who in college decided to avoid electrical engineering to go into fluid dynamics of avoiding an electrical complexity, but then the electrical engineer decided to avoid the fluid dynamics too. Let me be the mathematician who saw you both and calls both of you out as having tunnel vision.

But instead of name calling, I intend to make empirical observations and if it gets under your skin a little, than I know I am doing it right.

Probably the most obvious one, and it used to bug me a lot when an operational meteorologist kept bringing it up when I was a warmer years ago, but he pointed out that the warming was occurring in the northern hemisphere and that was contrary to a theory of CO2 as a GHG, which would predict a more uniform warming. It gets more specific with the Arctic, and as a mathematician, I can explain this with some precision. You can call this tunnel vision, I don't mind, really. The problem is that the melting of the Arctic ice sheet is very specific in terms of TIME. It's melting with anomalies 2-3 standard deviations between 8/15-10/15. Most of you would just say that's the max and leave it at that. But it's important to note that a GHG warming base on a radiative trapping would predict a much earlier melt anomaly as that's when the 24 hour sun hits the Arctic. But PEAK GLOBAL LIGHTNING is from 8/15-10/15. And if you do the math on the 2-3 standard deviations we have seen in the Arctic melting over the past few years, what you have is odds of a million to one that this melting occur by random chance. If you combine it with the TIMING of it, exactly with peak global lightning . . .

Lightning occurs more in the northern hemisphere because 90 percent of lightning occurs over land and there is much more land in the northern hemisphere, pretty much simple as that. And with more lightning in the northern hemisphere, this means that the forcing of CO2 is being expressed electrically, it would predict that the warming would occur in the northern hemisphere. I wish that operational meteorologist Tom was his name, was around to deal with me now, because he never took his skepticism to the next step and used what he thought was true and explain why it was. He never took the next step, because he wasn't interested in the science of climate, but the politics, IMHO.

The same is true of the Carboniferous period, an epoch known for high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. What is NOT discussed is during that time most of the land was over the south pole, and hence the amount of global lightning differed, and hence the amount of CO2 to bring a balanced climate had to be different to account for the lower powered global electrical circuit. I wish Tom was around to deal with me on that one now.

So yes I am not a denialist, but I am not exactly a warmer either. There is a complexity that gets to CO2 and cloud behaviors that is electrical.


I have to admit I am enjoying this. It makes a change from the standard AGW 'discussions' here, however implausible the theory is, but seriously? As I read it you have just claimed that anomalous arctic melting is caused by lightning, because the low point in the arctic ice sheet correlates with peak global lightning. Are you suggesting that this peak in lightning strikes did not occur before AGW occurred, which you would have to be if there was a causative effect? Have you not heard the phrase "correlation is not causation"?
Pretty warm SSTs for Chapala on approach to Saudi Arabia:



Quoting 354. DeepSeaRising:



Along the path of Felix they found a third of carbonation had been removed. Makes more sense at least. {snip}
Where did you find this information? The only thing a google search on "carbonation and Hurricane Felix" reveals is postings and tweets by this same person under a variety of different names. I can find no reference to a "Bates" and research into Hurricane Felix related to carbonization.
I have come to the conclusion that some posts here fall into this classification. Pretty amazing stuff sometimes.
With this years el nino what is expected is more weird jet stream action. I know one thing if California and the surrounding mountains don't get substantial amounts of precipitation there toast. If the same pattern sets up as the previous 3 years with the jet stream diving down from the Arctic to the eastern half, I will be speaking a different tune come March. The variables are many with weather and the past patterns don't add up anymore. All the education in the world doesn't make you a expert but common sense lately is hard to find.
There is a very serious situation going on in Austin, TX right now!
Quoting 363. sar2401:

Where did you find this information? The only thing a google search on "carbonation and Hurricane Felix" reveals is postings and tweets by this same person under a variety of different names. I can find no reference to a "Bates" and research into Hurricane Felix related to carbonization.


And here I thought I could believe everything people say here. :) I usually assume positive intent until it's proven otherwise. Was in the process of researching his claims too. What gives then? Seems to be going to great lengths for what? To hoodwink people, make people look foolish? Thanks Sar, glad we can count on you to get to the bottom of things.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 348. MichaelDoran:



Nice.

Well there are two main sources of near shore ocean carbonation that I have tried to understand over the years. The first is rivers and the second, closely related, are the methane hydrate fields that line the continents like rings on a bath tube under about 1,200 feet of ocean or more. What happens is the hydrate fields are sensitive to rivers and when the hydrates unform for lack of sediment cover etc the released methane is quickly converted to carbonation by the microbial biosphere.

Where has that played out? Most interesting to me is Hoover dam and the hydrate fields in the Gulf of California. Immediately after the Colorado was diverted the dust bowl of the 30s . . .

But there are more examples of river changes and in the Gulf of Mexico there were giant dead zones before Katrina, Rita in the GOM.

Similar changes in the Orinoco river in Venezuela.

If you go to the early 80s there are changes in CV storms related to massive dams built in south America.

Go thru the Unisys system and review the storms relative to river changes like I have and you start to see a pattern. With that one again I will accept tunnel vision characterizations no problem.

Patricia and for that matter the severe drought here in California where I am are related to two HUGE dams on the rio grande de Santiago that flows into the Gulf of California. Those dams restrict flow during the so called rainy season up here in California and release during the hurricane season. I think it impacts the behavior of the Pacific high and the RRR. There are huge methane hydrate fields in the mouth of the Santiago.

If you do a google earth you can get a sat picture of the first dam and just follow the river downflow to the second one. The lakes are massive. The dams impact sedimentation and flow, and sedimentation in particular is important for the hydrate fields.

Up and down the west coast the hydrate fields are leaking methane. There have been several news stories about it, as there is a study on the hydrate fields in the Pacific northwest. Where its going to get bad is there are massive hydrate fields in the Arctic.

So don't worry about me not being a warmer, as I am a much bigger alarmist than you warmers with your garden of eden will ever be. Super storms are coming and billions of people are going to die or be displaced as neo glacial storms ARE coming.


The Rio Grande de Santiago flows into the Pacific Ocean, about 400 km southeast of the Gulf of California, or as I prefer, the Sea of Cortez. Also, marine sedimentation has virtually nothing to do with offshore hydrates (at least from the perspective of how long dams have been around), particularly considering the water depths (and distance from shore) that marine gas hydrates are found. Sedimentation at those depths are due to pelagic and hemipelagic deposition that normally accumulates at rates of 1 to 4 g/cm2/1000 yrs (or less), unless the area is affected by turbidity flows. A combination of temperature and pressure at great ocean depths allow the gas to be trapped ("frozen') within clathrates. The stability of the hydrates at a particular temperature and depth is related to the chemical composition of the gas. Most hydrates are buried and can be identified by Bottom Simulating Reflectors on seismic data, but there are numerous locations around the world where hydrate mounds are exposed on the seafloor, not covered by sediments, and they are perfectly stable (they provide a nice dinner for "ice worms"). The burial of hydrates is not due to hydrates forming at the seafloor and then becoming buried by sedimentation. They are buried because that is where they formed. Upward migration of petrogenic gas from great depth results gas hydrate formation when the gas reaches temperatures and pressures in the upper sediment column where hydrate stability is achieved.

The Japanese and Koreans are especially interested in gas hydrates as an energy source, since they have little or no conventional hydrocarbon reserves. Current thinking is that gas hydrates contain at least double (and potentially up to 1000 times) the carbon locked up in conventional hydrocarbons and biomass in the world combined. An interesting aside, injection of CO2 into gas hydrates liberates the methane and locks up the CO2. Considering the GHG potency of methane as compared to CO2, not exactly a fair trade in the AGW realm, but kind of interesting nonetheless.

By the way, I have a MSc in marine geology and I have no idea what you are talking about when you discuss "carbonation"
Rainfall rates of over 5" an hour have been reported in the Onion Creek area of Austin. According to the LCRA rain gauges along Onion Creek, 10.81" of rain has been recorded in the last 2 hours. Gives true meaning to "frog strangling". The forecast does get a bit, but not by much. New rains are developing S & W of the Austin area. On the bright side, lake Travis should continue to rise.
He's not making this up. CO2Science has an article on exactly what he's talking about. Under the heading: Hurricanes And Oceanic Carbon Sequestration: Another Negative Feedback Process To Slow Global Warming. This paper seems to suggest things much different from what Mr. Doran is suggesting. My take at least. Will leave it to the science experts here to detail what this paper suggests.
Quoting 364. sar2401:

I have come to the conclusion that some posts here fall into this classification. Pretty amazing stuff sometimes.


Fun game to play on an Iphone 6. The phone suggests what words it thinks might be coming next, and you hit one of the 3 suggestions. Something I sent to my wife earlier today:

"The fact that you are not going to get my nails done with my friends and family members is not a good time to get a job. I just want to see you at the same time as a whole bunch of other countries."

And now back to your regularly scheduled weather-related world salad. :D
Quoting 311. SouthCentralTx:

For the first time in the 6 years that I have lived in the Hill Country I am stranded at home because my bridge to get out is underwater.


Quality isn't that good and it's an iphone picture.



The Blanco just peaked around 65,00 cfs.
Quoting 369. LouisPasteur:



Sedimentation at those depths are due to pelagic and hemipelagic deposition that normally accumulates at rates of 1 to 4 g/cm2/1000 yrs (or less), unless the area is affected by turbidity flows.


Hemipelagic basically is chemicals from the land, ie from rivers. I agree I should also include life on the surface of the oceans such as phytoplankton as part of what falls to depths into the ecology of the methanogens and the methane hydrate fields. But all of these ecologies are ultimately related to what flows down rivers. Hence dams are interesting to the habitat of produces the methane there. But also existing hydrates can become unstable given temperature changes, which as I hope I am describing, can occur slowly from climate change brought about by what flows down rivers. For me the issue is a biological one, in that does human activity create defects in living earth feedback loops. Those feedbacks are rain and river related, which then gets to both modulation of temperature and chemistry of the near shore oceans where the bottom of the system is the methane hydrates. It's interesting to me that methanogens are among the most ancient forms of life. And simple. In my view there is selective pressure for them to NOT evolve, as they are an essential feedback life form for all of life.
Quoting 364. sar2401:

I have come to the conclusion that some posts here fall into this classification. Pretty amazing stuff sometimes.



Not all of it is due to insanity. Bureaucrats and lawyers are taught to write this way intentionally to avoid actual accountability (using passive voice for the same reason).
Quoting 374. MichaelDoran:



Hemipelagic basically is chemicals from the land, ie from rivers. I agree I should also include life on the surface of the oceans such as phytoplankton as part of what falls to depths into the ecology of the methanogens and the methane hydrate fields. But all of these ecologies are ultimately related to what flows down rivers. Hence dams are interesting to the habitat of produces the methane there. But also existing hydrates can become unstable given temperature changes, which as I hope I am describing, can occur slowly from climate change brought about by what flows down rivers. For me the issue is a biological one, in that does human activity create defects in living earth feedback loops. Those feedbacks are rain and river related, which then gets to both modulation of temperature and chemistry of the near shore oceans where the bottom of the system is the methane hydrates. It's interesting to me that methanogens are among the most ancient forms of life. And simple. In my view there is selective pressure for them to NOT evolve, as they are an essential feedback life form for all of life.


Hemipelagic sediments are partially terrigenously derived (hence the "hemi" - as in not completely pelagic) , and most of that is derived from airborne dust. Nevertheless, the sedimentation rates at those depths are so slow that a dam built 20, 50, 100 years ago has zero impact on sediments covering hydrates, and even if they did, all the sediments would do is insulate them from all that warm water that is somehow defying physics to arrive at the seafloor. Water temperatures at the depths of marine gas hydrates are not affected by river outflow, unless the river is produced by glacial melt and the cold dense water (even more conducive to hydrate stability) runs to the seafloor. In case you haven't noticed liquids and gases that are warmer than their surroundings rise. You are flailing at the keyboard, desperately trying to sound like you have half a clue what you are writing about, but your tinfoil hat keeps getting in the way. Get back to me in 100,000 years, when the affects of the dams (although long gone by then) would potentially be measurable. Leave the science to the scientists.
Quoting 376. LouisPasteur:



You are flailing at the keyboard, desperately trying to sound like you have half a clue what you are writing about, but your tinfoil hat keeps getting in the way. Get back to me in 100,000 years, when the affects of the dams (although long gone by then) would potentially be measurable. Leave the science to the scientists.


When a person posts like a total a - hole like this, you pretty much know you had the best of the 'debate'. But I am not out to best anyone. That is not my purpose. Instead I am going to make some factual and then probability assertions and brilliant, educated specialists like yourself THEN can talk about MY tinfoil hat.

The fact is Hoover dam was constructed and then there was a measurable drought across the United States in the 30s. There are methane hydrate fields inside the Gulf of California where the Colorado river flows. Similar changes to the Colorado have resulted in remarkable changes to tropical storm behaviors.

Other human activity is interesting with respect to rivers and the chemistry they bring to the near shore oceans, including fossil fuel fertilizers, deforestation, etc.

Tropical storms are particularly interesting with respect to ocean ecologies. It is well settled that they roil the oceans and bring cold nutrient rich oceans to the surface, and phytoplankton blooms are found in their wakes. Diatoms, algaes, all combine to form eventually sediments which settle into the ecologies of the methanogens that create the methane for the hydrates.

The most important point here is that earth has modulated its temperature and chemistry for billions of years--the earth is alive.
Quoting 377. MichaelDoran:



When a person posts like a total a - hole like this, you pretty much know you had the best of the 'debate'. But I am not out to best anyone. That is not my purpose. Instead I am going to make some factual and then probability assertions and brilliant, educated specialists like yourself THEN can talk about MY tinfoil hat.

The fact is Hoover dam was constructed and then there was a measurable drought across the United States in the 30s. There are methane hydrate fields inside the Gulf of California where the Colorado river flows. Similar changes to the Colorado have resulted in remarkable changes to tropical storm behaviors.

Other human activity is interesting with respect to rivers and the chemistry they bring to the near shore oceans, including fossil fuel fertilizers, deforestation, etc.

Tropical storms are particularly interesting with respect to ocean ecologies. It is well settled that they roil the oceans and bring cold nutrient rich oceans to the surface, and phytoplankton blooms are found in their wakes. Diatoms, algaes, all combine to form eventually sediments which settle into the ecologies of the methanogens that create the methane for the hydrates.

The most important point here is that earth has modulated its temperature and chemistry for billions of years--the earth is alive.
I just learned more from this post than I ever learned in college!
Oct Max [119 F] - wow.
OTHER DATA - - - - -
Earth max : (134.33 F)
Space station max : (250 F)
Lunar surface max : ( 242.33 F)

Aren't we lucky to have such global cooling by a "heat trapping" atmosphere?