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The Cataclysm That Wasn’t: Hurricane Patricia Largely Spares Mexico, Texas

By: Bob Henson 1:42 PM GMT on October 26, 2015

Expectations of calamity were running high on Friday, October 23, as Hurricane Patricia neared the southwest coast of Mexico. Just a few hours earlier, top sustained winds in Patricia were 200 mph--the highest reliably-measured surface winds in any tropical cyclone on Earth--and its central surface pressure was 879 mb, the lowest sea-level pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. As Patricia stormed ashore, an automated station in Cuixmala, near the point of landfall, reported sustained winds of 185 mph, gusting to 211 mph (this report has not yet been evaluated or confirmed). Despite this ferocity, a number of factors lined up to minimize Patricia’s impact in Mexico, as we outlined on Saturday. These factors included the hurricane’s very small size; its landfall location, well away from the coastal population centers of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo; large-scale evacuations; the steep offshore topography of the landfall location, which reduced the potential storm surge; Patricia’s rapid motion, which reduced rainfall totals; and its speedy decay.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the Chamela community, Jalisco State, Mexico on October 24, 2015, after the passage of Hurricane Patricia. Patricia flattened dozens of homes on Mexico's Pacific coast, but authorities said Saturday the record-breaking hurricane largely spared the country as it weakened to a tropical depression. Photo credit: Mario Vazquez/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. Residents stand outside their flooded house in Zoatlan, Nayarit state, some 150 km northwest of Guadalajara, Mexico, on Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015. Photo credit: Eduardo Verdugo/AP.


Figure 3. Patricia tracked just to the west of densely populated areas, thus greatly reducing its toll on southwestern Mexico. Image credit: Michael Lowry, The Weather Channel, @MichaelRLowry.

Two days after Patricia struck, it was increasingly apparent that the hurricane’s toll was far less than many had feared. As of late Sunday, eight deaths (three direct and five indirect) had been attributed to Patricia. Several feet of water flooded parts of Manzanillo, but Puerto Vallarta saw little significant impact. Destruction was widespread in a few small towns along Patricia’s immediate path, with hundreds of homes lost and landscapes ripped apart. According to storm surge expert Hal Needham, some of the worst surge damage occurred in the community of Barra de Navidad, just to the east of the grey circle showing maximum wind speeds in Figure 3. All in all, the total economic toll from Patricia in Mexico will likely be far below that caused by many weaker landfalling storms--perhaps less than $100 million US.


Patricia packed a lot of strength into its short life, maintaining at least Category 4 strength for a full 38% of its brief lifespan. Here are a few vital statistics:

Lifespan as tropical cyclone: 102 hrs
(became TD at 15Z 10/20/15, declared post-tropical at 21Z 10/24/15)

Lifespan at tropical storm strength: 84 hrs
(became TS at 3Z 10/21/15, downgraded to TD at 15Z 10/24/15)

Lifespan as hurricane: 54 hrs
(became Cat 1 at 9Z 10/22/15, downgraded from Cat 1 to TD at 15Z 10/24/15)

Lifespan as Cat 4/5 hurricane: 39 hrs
(became Cat 4 at 18Z 10/22/15, downgraded to Cat 1 at 09Z 10/24/15)



Figure 4. Wind speed in a hurricane is strongly correlated with the central pressure, as shown in this graphic for all Northeast Pacific hurricanes from 1954 through 2013. Patricia bore out this relationship as it intensified (white dashed line) to peak winds of nearly 175 knots and a minimum central pressure of 879 mb (yellow star). Image credit: Patrick Marsh, @pmarshwx.

Patricia’s remnants in Texas: wet but not too wild
Patricia’s impact on Texas also fell short of what could have transpired. As the hurricane’s remnants passed over the Texas coast on Saturday night and Sunday, they helped spin up a nontropical coastal low, as expected. But the heaviest rains stayed offshore, as the low was hustled along by a large upper-level trough moving across the state. Rainfall amounts averaged 5” to 10” from the central coast across the Houston area, resulting in widespread but non-catastrophic flooding. The heavy rains translated east into Lousiana and Mississippi on Sunday, as did flash flood watches and warnings. Baton Rouge notched 8.60” and the New Orleans airport picked up 8.67”, both setting monthly records for any single date in October. Even larger amounts of rain fell from Thursday through Saturday across central Texas, as the upper-level trough and an associated surface front interacted with rich Gulf moisture ahead of Patricia’s remnants (see radar loop embedded below). The area near Corsicana was hardest-hit, with the town of Powell receiving a three-day total of 20.15.” The multiday event pushed the Dallas-Fort Worth area into seventh place for its wettest year on record. With 46.64” up through Saturday, the DFW metro area is within striking distance of the record 53.54” observed in 1991.


Figure 5. A dropsonde launched by this NOAA crew on Friday, October 23, 2015, measured the lowest pressure ever recorded in a Western Hemisphere hurricane: 879 millibars. Left to right: (top row) Joe Sapp, Mike Holmes, Joseph Klippel, Lonnie Kregelka, Jim Warnecke, Tim Gallagher, Chris Lalonde, Bill Olney, Dana Naeher, Bobby Peek; (bottom row) Pat Didier, Scott Price and Adam Abitbol. Photo credit: Courtesy Joseph Klippel

A reconnaissance flight for the ages
The Hurricane Hunters who fly into storm after storm for NOAA and the U.S. Air Force may carry out hundreds of flights in a career, many of which garner little notice. But one foray of the NOAA P-3 aircraft dubbed ”Miss Piggy” will go down in history. During a single 10.5-hour flight on Friday, October 23, the NOAA team flew from Harlingen, TX, across Mexico; made two passes through the heart of Hurricane Patricia; and then flew back to their home base of MacDill AFB in Tampa, FL. One of the dropsondes the team launched into Patricia during that Friday flight recorded the 879-millibar central pressure that now stands as a Western Hemisphere record. The embedded video below gives a taste of what the crew encountered a day earlier, on Thursday, as they flew through the eyewall of Patricia while the hurricane was intensifying rapidly.

Hal Needham has a blog post this morning with photos and analysis of surge damage in Mexico related to Patricia's landfall. WU contributor Steve Gregory also has a new post, weighing in on another Texas rain event possible this coming weekend, followed by mild weather for much of the nation to kick off November.

Bob Henson

This video of our 1st eye wall penetration into Hurricane Patrica. The 1st two minutes is the approach and actual eye wall penetration, the next 2 minutes is in the actual eye of the storm and the last minute is our entry into the other side of the eye wall.

Posted by Joseph Diane Klippel on Thursday, October 22, 2015



Texas radar loop October 23-24, 2015

Inflow of moist unstable air from the southeast interacting with a front to produce training thunderstorms with flash flooding, then outflow racing to the southeast. Image credit: College of DuPage Meteorology

Posted by Stu Ostro on Saturday, October 24, 2015


rain from hurricane Patricia
rain from hurricane Patricia
Patricia high tides
Patricia high tides
Sunday morn'n rain
Sunday morn'n rain
Looking out the window, laying in bed, listening to the rain.
morning glory
morning glory
Awesome sky

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sometimes the fates trend to the side of the Human condition, and we are spared
made it to work on time but it was a rough morning with the lights being out. Thank god i made it safely
Record ReportStatement as of 02:07 am CDT on October 26, 2015

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Baton Rouge Ryan Field
ASOS...

A record daily rainfall of 8.60 inches was set at Baton Rouge Ryan
Field ASOS yesterday. This breaks the old record for the date of
4.44 inches set in 1996.
Thank You Mr. Henson. Mexico was incredibly lucky and that that luck still boggles the mind. From a record breaking hurricane, to a landfall over a sparsely populated-well evacuated area, to a down-graded tropical storm in almost record time as well.

Kudos to the NOAA crew; great picture.........They appreciate the gravity of what they flew into.
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Sometimes the fates trend to the side of the Human condition, and we are spared

Sometimes contrary. Tacloban was as unlucky as Mexico was lucky.

 Orleans Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather RadioCoastal Flood WarningStatement as of 2:55 AM CDT on October 26, 2015

... Coastal Flood Warning now in effect until 7 PM CDT this
evening...

* coastal flooding... 2 to 3 feet above normal tides west of the
Mississippi River. East of the Mississippi River including the
tidal lakes and coastal Mississippi... tides are even higher at
3 to 4 feet above normal. Localized higher levels are possible.

* Timing... water levels will remain elevated through much of today
and possibly longer along the Mississippi coast.

* Impacts... minor and moderate inundation of low lying roads and
areas along the Louisiana coastline... especially low lying areas
around Lake Pontchartrain... breten sound... tidal influenced
areas near maurapas and Killian. In addition all of the lower
lying areas of the Mississippi coast may be impacted by moderate
inundation.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.





Quoting 5. cRRKampen:


Sometimes contrary. Tacloban was as unlucky as Mexico was lucky.


We're not talking about Haiyan though are weee's?

No we are not.
Repost as to the Gulf low and the current outlook for Conus today:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

From the previous blog, since I once again made the last post before the new blog :

Still no rain in my deluxe, but unofficial, rain gauge in Eufaula AL. Birmingham NWS has the chance of rain today, tonight, and tomorrow at 100% (!). The predicted rain amounts through Wednesday have gone from 2.69" on Saturday to 1.75" Sunday to now at 1.15". This is not a good looking trend. There's another batch of showers headed NE from the Gulf, just like the last batch early this morning that evaporated before they got here. If this batch doesn't make it, I'm going directly to Madam Maria, world famous psychic and curse removing lady (who just happens to live here) along with the Magic 8 Ball to get the rain curse removed from my yard. I've had 0.30" of rain since September 28, so desperation is starting to set in. :-)
Starling to look from the trajectory of the low that the rain is going to get into North Florida east of the Panhandle.


So how many Cat 5s has the world had in 2015??

Do your best to not count Joaquin...Even though he may have been one for a few minutes.. :P
Quoting 7. Patrap:



We're not talking about Haiyan though are weee's?

No we are not.

You are rendering your own remark meaningless.
"Sometimes the fates trend to the side of the Human condition, and we are spared" - apparently you meant: 'always' because outside of Patricia there are no cases to check on and compare with.

Aside from this detail, tunnel vision renders every incident both unique and the only incident ever - this is what climate revisionists use to distract attention from the global picture. Thank you.
A cute little naked swirl off the coast of the Philippines
Hey guys

: P


You forgot to mention Cyclone Nargis too.
Mr. Patrap; how windy in your parts currenty (and it looks dry on the loops); breeze starting to pick up here in Tallahassee this morning at the moment.........................
round 15 mph currently gusting at times to maybe 25,......


Thanks Mr. Henson! It's interesting that Patricia did so little damage to, well, anything. If you look at the tree damage from Hurricane Andrew which was similar in size and intensity to Patricia, there is no comparison. In Andrew, there were very few trees left standing, the ones that were, were completely stripped. In Patricia....well, 99% of the trees are still standing. Even though the core was small and hit a virtually unpopulated area, there should be a 10 mile swath with damage similar to Andrew's, but there isn't.

This reminds me of another location on earth that gets hit by numerous major cyclones but usually receives very little wind damage (comparatively), Taiwan, as long as there's isn't huge amounts of rain, they usually get through with very few casualties and low damage.

What do these places have in common? Mountains! Huge mountains, right on the coast. What does Florida and the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard have? Big, flat, beautiful beaches, elevations near sea level for miles inland. While we have a great understand on how topography effects the structure of cyclones, we know nothing about how it effects wind damage. Someone needs to do research into this in my opinion.
Quoting 19. Patrap:

round 15 mph currently gusting at times to maybe 25,......





The good news for the Northern Gulf coast today is that the Conus jet is not situated over us so not a severe weather threat in terms of windspeeds or tornadoes; have to see however, how much rain and flooding we get over the next two days:


Quoting 16. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys
Hey Kid. How's the weather in the Caymans?
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Sometimes the fates trend to the side of the Human condition, and we are spared

But we seem to be determined to press our luck. Btw, it's a beautiful afternoon in Lisboa.
Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia
Quoting 9. sar2401:

From the previous blog, since I once again made the last post before the new blog :

Still no rain in my deluxe, but unofficial, rain gauge in Eufaula AL. Birmingham NWS has the chance of rain today, tonight, and tomorrow at 100% (!). The predicted rain amounts through Wednesday have gone from 2.69" on Saturday to 1.75" Sunday to now at 1.15". This is not a good looking trend. There's another batch of showers headed NE from the Gulf, just like the last batch early this morning that evaporated before they got here. If this batch doesn't make it, I'm going directly to Madam Maria, world famous psychic and curse removing lady (who just happens to live here) along with the Magic 8 Ball to get the rain curse removed from my yard. I've had 0.30" of rain since September 28, so desperation is starting to set in. :-)


I hear you!!! Droughts $uck!
Quoting 22. sar2401:

Hey Kid. How's the weather in the Caymans?


Well having been off island until yesterday it boring right now but Mexico weather really awesome
nice photo of the cat 5 damage western mexico. mangled up pretty good.
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia



I think Patricia was like Hurricane Andrew except that it made landfall in a low population area. I feel the Mexican govt has an excellent evacuation system. I feared there would be mudslides in the mountains, but I haven't heard anything.
Quoting 21. weathermanwannabe:



The good news for the Northern Gulf coast today is that the Conus jet is not situated over us so not a severe weather threat in terms of windspeeds or tornadoes; have to see however, how much rain and flooding we get over the next two days:



There's some lightning from a cell near Jackson MS and a little offshore in the Gulf. Other than that, nothing. The rain that's at least headed this way has a few areas that look moderate, but most is light or virga. There are a few cells with cloud tops of about 20,000 feet but most are 15,000 or less. My measured winds are 5 mph with gusts to 15 mph. The barometer has been steady since early this morning at 1015 mb. All in all, it's hard to see anything in the way of severe weather developing in SE Alabama, and flooding seems to be out of the question.
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia


yep....storm ramps up from not much to a cat 5 in a day...no big deal in my book......at one point what may have been the strongest cyclone recorded.....not newsworthy in my book....and came ashore with winds gusting over 200....yeah....why bother to write about that at all
Quoting 20. pipelines:

Thanks Mr. Henson! It's interesting that Patricia did so little damage to, well, anything. If you look at the tree damage from Hurricane Andrew which was similar in size and intensity to Patricia, there is no comparison. In Andrew, there were very few trees left standing, the ones that were, were completely stripped. In Patricia....well, 99% of the trees are still standing. Even though the core was small and hit a virtually unpopulated area, there should be a 10 mile swath with damage similar to Andrew's, but there isn't.

This reminds me of another location on earth that gets hit by numerous major cyclones but usually receives very little wind damage (comparatively), Taiwan, as long as there's isn't huge amounts of rain, they usually get through with very few casualties and low damage.

What do these places have in common? Mountains! Huge mountains, right on the coast. What does Florida and the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard have? Big, flat, beautiful beaches, elevations near sea level for miles inland. While we have a great understand on how topography effects the structure of cyclones, we know nothing about how it effects wind damage. Someone needs to do research into this in my opinion.

A band of deforestation in the Philippines: PHILIPPINES: Super Typhoon Haiyan Causes Marginal Food Crop Losses.
Apparently the eye wall of Haiyan held up much better than Patricia's.

"Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia "
Sheer luck. The results of that recon flight were thusly that some attention had to be paid. What would you have said had that eye wall hit Manzanilla in full force, instead of passing elsewhere in an apparently suddenly weakend form? Obviously the threat of that happening attracted some attention and fears.
Quoting 20. pipelines:

Thanks Mr. Henson! It's interesting that Patricia did so little damage to, well, anything. If you look at the tree damage from Hurricane Andrew which was similar in size and intensity to Patricia, there is no comparison. In Andrew, there were very few trees left standing, the ones that were, were completely stripped. In Patricia....well, 99% of the trees are still standing. Even though the core was small and hit a virtually unpopulated area, there should be a 10 mile swath with damage similar to Andrew's, but there isn't.

This reminds me of another location on earth that gets hit by numerous major cyclones but usually receives very little wind damage (comparatively), Taiwan, as long as there's isn't huge amounts of rain, they usually get through with very few casualties and low damage.

What do these places have in common? Mountains! Huge mountains, right on the coast. What does Florida and the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard have? Big, flat, beautiful beaches, elevations near sea level for miles inland. While we have a great understand on how topography effects the structure of cyclones, we know nothing about how it effects wind damage. Someone needs to do research into this in my opinion.


I have seen where strong hurricanes make landfall in the Caribbean. Those areas have huge mountains and the canes don't just dissipate. The force of a cat 5 hurricane making landfall regardless of the width of the eye should cause extreme damage. I would like to see the area where the eye of Patricia made landfall, even how remote that may be.
Quoting 30. ricderr:



That question wasn't sarcastic and did not need a sarcastic answer
35. SLU
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia


Yes they did, as usual. It's all about TV ratings and $,$$$,$$$.
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia
I don't think it was overhyped, it's just that the exact point of landfall was uncertain almost up to the time landfall occured. If the storm went about 50 km to the south, it would have made nearly a direct hit on Manzanillo. That would have been a disaster in terms of lives and property damage. Manzanillo is the chief port of Mexico, and wrecking those facilities would have been a real economic blow to the country. Anytime we have a storm that's the most intense that's ever occured in the Western Hemisphere it's obviously going to get a lot of attention. The more or less continuous flights by the hurricane hunters also allowed this to be the most heavily instrumented flight in history. Without recon, Patricia probably would have been an intense but not record breaking storm. Shows why recon is so important, and how little we really may know about big storms that didn't have flights.
GLP must be down.

: )
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia


No.

I get what you're saying but you're using hindsight to judge what at the time seemed a lot more dangerous. We're talking about what was for a brief time the most powerful hurricane in the recorded history of the Western Hemisphere. If a hungry lion walks into an elementary school, it's a huge deal. If that lion then lies down and goes to sleep, rather than eating a couple of the kids, it doesn't make it any less of a huge deal and certainly doesn't mean the school shouldn't have freaked out.
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia

Hyped? I think Patricia did all the hyping herself. A 200MPH Sustained wind hurricane, think about that. Now back to the regular news of the day.
Flew into Dallas around 2am Saturday morning after a 3 hour delay in New Orleans. We flew around the northern reaches of the storm over Oklahoma instead of straight through the heart of it. The last 20 mintues were still extremely rough--the passengers letting out large gasps/screams twice. Flying back into New Orleans last night was also rough but not AS bad.
41. oaww
8 and a third inches rain in about 30 hours in Houston. No Flooding from the bayou in the back yard, thanks to huge retention ponds nearby. Never lost power. Moderate wind. A remarkable event!
Quoting 26. wunderkidcayman:



Well having been off island until yesterday it boring right now but Mexico weather really awesome
Glad to hear you had a nice trip. The weather here has been somewhat less than awesome. I expect to see cactuses spring forth from the lawn at any moment.
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia


LOL, that's an odd question coming from the guy that over hypes every swirl within 500 mi. of The Caymans!
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia


I don't think it was overhyped. Most of the media coverage seemed to focus on the sheer strength of the storm and amazingly rapid intensification. A little jog in any direction and it could have hit a more highly populated area. My opinion is that it's better to overhype and overprepare people than risk not getting the word out. Of course, overhype would be a nuisance if it was just a low end TS, but for the strongest storm on record, I think the more coverage, the better.
some brave souls in those hurricane hunters believe me.
that rain rate over the windshield shows what they are flying through....hard to believe the engines dont flame out.
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia


Hell no. There's no such thing as "over hyped" when it comes to a storm with sustained winds of ~200mph, same can be said with any Cat 5. This would've been disastrous if it had gone further to the right.
The NOAA P-3 Orion is a robust and sturdy Turboprop platform.






Quoting 47. Patrap:

The NOAA P-3 Orion is a robust and sturdy Turboprop platform.







They have props for a reason so birds don't get sucked into engines, heavy precip or hail can't bog down the engines, safer with props at least that's what I was told
So why don't commercial airlines fly with props on most planes? maybe because they fly so long and so much if a prop goes out the plane can't stay up. If an engine on commercial flight goes out it can still fly on.

Need some pilot assistance on this
Quoting 35. SLU:



Yes they did, as usual. It's all about TV ratings and $,$$$,$$$,.


True

Quoting 36. sar2401:

I don't think it was overhyped, it's just that the exact point of landfall was uncertain almost up to the time landfall occured. If the storm went about 50 km to the south, it would have made nearly a direct hit on Manzanillo. That would have been a disaster in terms of lives and property damage. Manzanillo is the chief port of Mexico, and wrecking those facilities would have been a real economic blow to the country. Anytime we have a storm that's the most intense that's ever occured in the Western Hemisphere it's obviously going to get a lot of attention. The more or less continuous flights by the hurricane hunters also allowed this to be the most heavily instrumented flight in history. Without recon, Patricia probably would have been an intense but not record breaking storm. Shows why recon is so important, and how little we really may know about big storms that didn't have flights.


True

I think it was just a bit overhyped atleast it wasn't overly overhyped like "OMG!!!! Hurricane Patricia it's the end of the world bla bla bla"
Quoting 46. Articuno:



Hell no. There's no such thing as "over hyped" when it comes to a storm with sustained winds of ~200mph, same can be said with any Cat 5.


Even given the circumstances I disagree. Media outlets are prone to exaggerate - its their business to do so. If people preferred accurate information they would digest NHC discussions and public advisories but they would prefer hearing news media outlets sing superlatives like "this is a 50 mile wide tornado" mixed with windy footage.
Quoting 49. RitaEvac:

So why don't commercial airlines fly with props on most planes? maybe because they fly so long and so much if a prop goes out the plane can't stay up. If an engine on commercial flight goes out it can still fly on.

Need some pilot assistance on this


Jet Aircraft fly above and around Weather ..as water ingestion from Heavy rain rates are really bad for turbofans.
Quoting 1044. sar2401:

Still no rain in my deluxe, but unofficial, rain gauge in Eufaula AL. Birmingham NWS has the chance of rain today, tonight, and tomorrow at 100% (!). The predicted rain amounts through Wednesday have gone from 2.69" on Saturday to 1.75" Sunday to now at 1.15". This is not a good looking trend. There's another batch of showers headed NE from the Gulf, just like the last batch early this morning that evaporated before they got here. If this batch doesn't make it, I'm going directly to Madam Maria, world famous psychic and curse removing lady (who just happens to live here) along with the Magic 8 Ball to get the rain curse removed from my yard. I've had 0.30" of rain since September 28, so desperation is starting to set in. :-)
You know, sar, you could just cut and paste your message to the new blog .....

LOL ....
It's amazing how TS Erika was so much worse than Category 5 Hurricane Patricia. Erika had 50 mph winds at peak and killed 30+ with over $500M in damages. Patricia had 200 mph winds at peak and killed only 13 with only $37M in damage.
Those are some serious faces in that cockpit. Kudos to the crews who fly into these things.

Gorgeous weather on Longboat Key this morning. Blue sky, 78F, and East winds at 13mph.
Quoting 49. RitaEvac:

So why don't commercial airlines fly with props on most planes? maybe because they fly so long and so much if a prop goes out the plane can't stay up. If an engine on commercial flight goes out it can still fly on.

Need some pilot assistance on this


Because they fly too slowly and cannot attain the altitudes that jets can. They are also much less efficient.
Can someone tell me if there's any cold air in site for the southeast? I'm hoping this darn ridge will break soon in the east m.
Quoting 54. HurricaneFan:

It's amazing how TS Erika was so much worse than Category 5 Hurricane Patricia. Erika had 50 mph winds at peak and killed 30+ with over $500M in damages. Patricia had 200 mph winds at peak and killed only 13 with only $37M in damage.


This is why tropical cyclones intrigue me. It's not just a matter of how powerful the storm is..You have to take into consideration the geography and demographics(population and density) of the place it hits. Size of the storm makes a lot of difference too.

I honestly believe that if Danny hit where Erika did, Erika would cause more damage. Erika was a rainmaker. Danny was small. Rain caused most of the damage on Dominica.

That's why TDs can be so destructive, while Cat 5s like Emily don't get retired. It's amazing.
Quoting 31. cRRKampen:


A band of deforestation in the Philippines: PHILIPPINES: Super Typhoon Haiyan Causes Marginal Food Crop Losses.
Apparently the eye wall of Haiyan held up much better than Patricia's.

"Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia "
Sheer luck. The results of that recon flight were thusly that some attention had to be paid. What would you have said had that eye wall hit Manzanilla in full force, instead of passing elsewhere in an apparently suddenly weakend form? Obviously the threat of that happening attracted some attention and fears.


The big difference with Haiyan is that it made initial landfall in an area without large mountain ranges. The same thing with hurricanes that hit caribbean islands that have mountains, aside from Cuba and the DR, there are no mountain ranges for a hurricane to slam into.

Patricia made landfall on top of a high end resort and 10 miles from a town, there are numerous roads that crisscross the exact location of landfall, there has been no recorded swath of major tree damage.

I'm telling you guys, it's the mountain range there, it does something to negate wind damage that no one has studied. It is no conspiracy, there is no haarp, it was not over hyped, it was just a situation that we, as humans, have not studied and have little understanding of.

We're doing a lot of research into linking topography and storm surge, a similar study needs to be done on wind damage and topography.
Quoting 59. pipelines:



The big difference with Haiyan is that it made initial landfall in an area without large mountain ranges. The same thing with hurricanes that hit caribbean islands that have mountains, aside from Cuba and the DR, there are no mountain ranges for a hurricane to slam into.

Patricia made landfall on top of a high end resort and 10 miles from a town, there are numerous roads that crisscross the exact location of landfall, there has been no recorded swath of major tree damage.

I'm telling you guys, it's the mountain range there, it does something to negate wind damage that no one has studied. It is no conspiracy, there is no haarp, it was not over hyped, it was just a situation that we, as humans, have not studied and have little understanding of.

We're doing a lot of research into linking topography and storm surge, a similar study needs to be done on wind damage and topography.


Makes you wonder if the highest winds are being pushed upward on the mountains hundreds to thousands of feet up keeping the winds less on the surface near the beach and the mountains near the beach. Somehow the storm feels the mountains and the air is pushed upward into the sky because of the mountain ranges... therefore less tree damage on the ground...
It was pretty windy this morning driving my son to school. He decided he didn't want to wake up for the bus this morning... While I was driving I could see how choppy it was on the gulf side and the bay side. Wind was strong enough at some points to make my truck move a little. It's been raining since last night. Nothing too heavy, just steady light rain.
Quoting 49. RitaEvac:

So why don't commercial airlines fly with props on most planes? maybe because they fly so long and so much if a prop goes out the plane can't stay up. If an engine on commercial flight goes out it can still fly on.

Need some pilot assistance on this
Even the fastest turboprop airliners fly at least 100 mph slower than any pure jet aircraft. The best turboprop airliner is much noisier than the worst jet. The public has gotten used to jets being the most desirable type of aircraft for flights over an hour or so. They have tolerated prop planes for puddle jumping flights but even that market is being taken over by short takeoff and landing jets.

The reason why the P-3 Orion is used for the HH flights is because it's available and relatively cheap. The Navy is phasing out the much newer P-3's in its fleet for the pure jet P-8A Poseidon, a militarized version of the Boeing 737-800 airliner. It is faster and has a somewhat longer loiter time over the desired area. The two P-3's in the NOAA fleet were put in service in 1976, so they are now approaching 40 years in service, a long time for an aircraft subject to the stress of hurricane hunting. Replacing them with the P-8 would be a hugely expensive proposition. The P-3 is no longer being built, so the only other option would be used but upgraded P-3's, still very expensive.
Quoting 53. BahaHurican:

You know, sar, you could just cut and paste your message to the new blog .....

LOL ....
Well, that's what I did, but I could certainly cut and paste in every new blog, or so it seems. It pretty discouraging to go almost a month with no rain while everyone else in the known world is getting floods. Or so it seems. :-)
Quoting 62. sar2401:

Even the fastest turboprop airliners fly at least 100 mph slower than any pure jet aircraft. The best turboprop airliner is much noisier than the worst jet. The public has gotten used to jets being the most desirable type of aircraft for flights over an hour or so. They have tolerated prop planes for puddle jumping flights but even that market is being taken over by short takeoff and landing jets.

The reason why the P-3 Orion is used for the HH flights is because it's available and relatively cheap. The Navy is phasing out the much newer P-3's in its fleet for the pure jet P-8A Poseidon, a militarized version of the Boeing 737-800 airliner. It is faster and has a somewhat longer loiter time over the desired area. The two P-3's in the NOAA fleet were put in service in 1976, so they are now approaching 40 years in service, a long time for an aircraft subject to the stress of hurricane hunting. Replacing them with the P-8 would be a hugely expensive proposition. The P-3 is no longer being built, so the only other option would be used but upgraded P-3's, still very expensive.


I took a prop plane from Jacksonville to Ft. Lauderdale a few years back and I hope to never get on another one. It was much bumpier than a jet and the noise from the prop was awful. I was nearly deaf by the time we landed. I had to go straight to a meeting and my ears were still ringing so bad I could barely hear anything that was said.
Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson,
Coverage of Hurricane Patricia Was Not Overblown, Likely Life-Saving

By Marshall Shepherd

We watched the amazing and rapid development of the strongest hurricane on record in the western hemisphere over the past day or so. I watched meteorology colleagues around the world that were in awe of the power and rapid intensification of Hurricane Patricia. I provided my thoughts and a round-up of key perspectives on the hurricane in Forbes the morning before the storm made landfall. Preliminary data shows that the storm had sustained winds over 180 miles per hour. I also saw many videos depicting the ferocity of the event. Meteorological hype is indeed a problem on social media and with some professional colleagues, but in this case, a storm of this magnitude warranted the call. I was stunned when I awoke the next day to find a few media headlines questioning whether the storm was “Overhyped” or “Overblown.”

Precipitation patterns in Hurricane Patricia as seen by NASA’s GPM Satellite (courtesy of NASA).

Are you kidding me? How can you overhype a record-shattering hurricane, packing EF-5 tornado winds, and approaching a major country? I have seen this before. It almost seems like some would rather see carnage and destruction to justify the call of alarm or make for a better story. I have often pondered the obsession that we have preparing for a major hazard, and then being critical if the destruction doesn’t meet some level of expectation. The “better safe than sorry” rule works.

Read more >>

Only Game in town, and now a TS..
Quoting 62. sar2401:

Even the fastest turboprop airliners fly at least 100 mph slower than any pure jet aircraft. The best turboprop airliner is much noisier than the worst jet. The public has gotten used to jets being the most desirable type of aircraft for flights over an hour or so. They have tolerated prop planes for puddle jumping flights but even that market is being taken over by short takeoff and landing jets.

The reason why the P-3 Orion is used for the HH flights is because it's available and relatively cheap. The Navy is phasing out the much newer P-3's in its fleet for the pure jet P-8A Poseidon, a militarized version of the Boeing 737-800 airliner. It is faster and has a somewhat longer loiter time over the desired area. The two P-3's in the NOAA fleet were put in service in 1976, so they are now approaching 40 years in service, a long time for an aircraft subject to the stress of hurricane hunting. Replacing them with the P-8 would be a hugely expensive proposition. The P-3 is no longer being built, so the only other option would be used but upgraded P-3's, still very expensive.


I am not a pilot and don't know how important throttle response is in HH aircraft but jet throttle response is very very slow, much slower than for piston engine propeller driven aircraft.
Quoting 64. flbeachgirl:



I took a prop plane from Jacksonville to Ft. Lauderdale a few years back and I hope to never get on another one. It was much bumpier than a jet and the noise from the prop was awful. I was nearly deaf by the time we landed. I had to go straight to a meeting and my ears were still ringing so bad I could barely hear anything that was said.


The bumpiness was probably due to lower altitude flying although in a flight between those two points they should have cruised at 10K feet or more of the craft was pressurised. I don't think they'll go above 8K feet in an unpressurised airplane but I don't know the regs for this either. I took a barometer on a jet when I was a kid and found it was pressurised to the equivalent altitude of about 7K feet.
Quoting 49. RitaEvac:

So why don't commercial airlines fly with props on most planes? maybe because they fly so long and so much if a prop goes out the plane can't stay up. If an engine on commercial flight goes out it can still fly on.

Need some pilot assistance on this


Almost all commercial airliners went into the jet age but the Soviet's had the swept wing TU-95 Bear (Tupolev) swept wing turbo-prop as a long distance bomber. Interesting design with a few still in service (after 50 years).....The US equivalent of our B-52's in terms of the mission (Strategic Bomber) and long service life.

And with a top speed of 575 mph and flight ceiling of 45,000.00 (comparable to most commercial jet liners) .

Quoting 67. PedleyCA:


Only Game in town, and now a TS..

Our local forecast office says this morning that NO remnants of Olaf will visit California. However, it's clear from this satellite photo that SOME remnant moisture from Olaf is being tapped at the tail end of that front/trough. Olaf's surface circulation will decay far out at sea.
Quoting 68. georgevandenberghe:



I am not a pilot and don't know how important throttle response is in HH aircraft but jet throttle response is very very slow, much slower than for piston engine propeller driven aircraft.
I was just a private pilot, so I never flew a pure jet aircraft, but I was lucky enough to get a few right hand seat rides in a Learjet 55. It was like what I imagine it must be to fly a fighter. The throttle response was about as quick as anyone could hope for. Throttle response with jets was an issue when the power to weight ration wasn't as good as a turboprop. That's why the takeoff run was so much longer than a turboprop. The power to weight ratio is so much higher in newer jets like the P-8 that it's probably not much of an issue now, but someone with commercial or military experience could give a lot better answer.
Quoting 60. RitaEvac:



Makes you wonder if the highest winds are being pushed upward on the mountains hundreds to thousands of feet up keeping the winds less on the surface near the beach and the mountains near the beach. Somehow the storm feels the mountains and the air is pushed upward into the sky because of the mountain ranges... therefore less tree damage on the ground...


Could be, my thought is that the air is being pulled in into the center of the cyclone in a counterclockwise direction, not directly into the center. In order for the air to make it to the center and to achieve such high wind speeds, it has to travel around the hurricane multiple times from the outside. What happens when you put up a huge barrier at the surface and the air can't make that journey to the center? Instead of being able to accelerate the air from a huge area around the storm, it's limited to whatever area it has in front of it before the mountains.

Cyclones always fall apart right before they slam into a mountain range, this is why Patricia collapsed right before landfall. I think whatever causes this to happen is the same reason why there is always much lower wind damage than expected in these areas.
Quoting 9. sar2401:

From the previous blog, since I once again made the last post before the new blog :

Still no rain in my deluxe, but unofficial, rain gauge in Eufaula AL. Birmingham NWS has the chance of rain today, tonight, and tomorrow at 100% (!). The predicted rain amounts through Wednesday have gone from 2.69" on Saturday to 1.75" Sunday to now at 1.15". This is not a good looking trend. There's another batch of showers headed NE from the Gulf, just like the last batch early this morning that evaporated before they got here. If this batch doesn't make it, I'm going directly to Madam Maria, world famous psychic and curse removing lady (who just happens to live here) along with the Magic 8 Ball to get the rain curse removed from my yard. I've had 0.30" of rain since September 28, so desperation is starting to set in. :-)


My that is desperate, I have had .22 in the same period.... hang in there...
NOAAs P3s are undergoing a service life extension program. This year Kermit is being reconditioned, next year Miss Piggy. Rewing, engine and avionics upgrades. Additional 15-20 years of service life.

Details in Powerpoint (22 mb).
The bumpiness was probably due to lower altitude flying although in a flight between those two points they should have cruised at 10K feet or more of the craft was pressurised. I don't think they'll go above 8K feet in an unpressurised airplane but I don't know the regs for this either. I took a barometer on a jet when I was a kid and found it was pressurised to the equivalent altitude of about 7K feet.

Actually unpressurized aircraft can fly well above 8k. Once reaching 10k, oxygen may be recommended. We have a Columbia 400 which has a ceiling of 22k and oxygen aboard. You are right, hopping below 5k can be bumpie.
I don't like the comparison of a CAT5 hurricane with an EF5 Tornado. The wind damage of each will not be similar. This has been discussed many times.
Hurricane Charley (CAT4 hurricane 145 mph, gusts 160 mph) showed EF2 Tornado damage by comparison.

Here's EF5 tornado damage.

The only time I've seen a hurricane or typhoon do similar damage it was caused by the storm surge not the wind.
Quoting 59. pipelines:



The big difference with Haiyan is that it made initial landfall in an area without large mountain ranges. The same thing with hurricanes that hit caribbean islands that have mountains, aside from Cuba and the DR, there are no mountain ranges for a hurricane to slam into.

Patricia made landfall on top of a high end resort and 10 miles from a town, there are numerous roads that crisscross the exact location of landfall, there has been no recorded swath of major tree damage.

I'm telling you guys, it's the mountain range there, it does something to negate wind damage that no one has studied. It is no conspiracy, there is no haarp, it was not over hyped, it was just a situation that we, as humans, have not studied and have little understanding of.

We're doing a lot of research into linking topography and storm surge, a similar study needs to be done on wind damage and topography.

True. Still, I'd have thought Haiyan would suffer the interaction with relief even as it was a comparable distance to that as Patricia was when she 'collapsed', process began whil she was still fairly out at sea.

What strikes me most is that the swath of deforestation continued along all of Haiyan's track, including the west; and that part of the swath seems to have been carved by the southern eye wall while the typhoon was moving west fairly rapidly.
Quoting 64. flbeachgirl:



I took a prop plane from Jacksonville to Ft. Lauderdale a few years back and I hope to never get on another one. It was much bumpier than a jet and the noise from the prop was awful. I was nearly deaf by the time we landed. I had to go straight to a meeting and my ears were still ringing so bad I could barely hear anything that was said.
That's exactly why the public doesn't fly on turboprops if they can avoid it. I don't know what kind of aircraft it was but an EMB 120 Brasilia or a De Havilland Dash-8 are the two likely candidates. Both are much better than earlier turboprops like the Fokker F27, but they are still noisy compared to the much better Canadair Regional Jet. Their climb to height is much slower than a jet, so they tend to fly at lower altitudes on short flights than a comparable jet. The RJ and Brasilia are both pressurized, but the Brasilia has a service ceiling of about 29,000 feet compared to 41,000 feet for the RJ. The lower service ceiling combined with the slower climb to altitude equals a generally bumpier flight. Turboprops are a dying breed in the developed world, even for short haul flights.
Quoting 21. weathermanwannabe:



The good news for the Northern Gulf coast today is that the Conus jet is not situated over us so not a severe weather threat in terms of windspeeds or tornadoes; have to see however, how much rain and flooding we get over the next two days:



Fairly benign so far here in Santa Rosa Beach FL... less than an inch so far though looks like Pensacola to the west is getting soaked...
Quoting 67. PedleyCA:


Only Game in town, and now a TS..

Looks like Olaf will be flingin' something my way Tue. or Wed. I was hoping for a Halloween rainstorm to keep the doorbell from ringing - kids around here aren't deterred much by snow.
Another BIG rain event on the horizon this Friday into the weekend. Texas buckle up.

Quoting 76. NSB207:

The bumpiness was probably due to lower altitude flying although in a flight between those two points they should have cruised at 10K feet or more of the craft was pressurised. I don't think they'll go above 8K feet in an unpressurised airplane but I don't know the regs for this either. I took a barometer on a jet when I was a kid and found it was pressurised to the equivalent altitude of about 7K feet.

Actually unpressurized aircraft can fly well above 8k. Once reaching 10k, oxygen may be recommended. We have a Columbia 400 which has a ceiling of 22k and oxygen aboard. You are right, hopping below 5k can be bumpie.

From my memory of FAA regs, a private pilot has to be on oxygen from about 12,000 feet to 14,000 feet if they are going to spend more than 30 minutes there. Above 14,000 feet requires oxygen at all times. Passengers require oxygen be available above 15,000 feet. A non-pressurized private plane can go to 14,000 feet without oxygen as long as the pilot doesn't "intend" to spend more than 30 minutes at that altitude. Those rules are are not always honored by pilots that have some experience at altitude, but you'd be in trouble if you got caught by the FAA. That's more likely to happen now in a transponder equipped aircraft.
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

Is it just me or any of you guys thinks the news over hyped hurricane Patricia
Had this storm come onshore in a less mountainous and highly populated region today's discussion would be quite different. Thank God this was not the case!
Quoting 81. JNFlori30A:

Fairly benign so far here in Santa Rosa Beach FL... less than an inch so far though looks like Pensacola to the west is getting soaked...

Still zero rain here, even though there's light rain at Troy, a mere 50 miles west. Grrr....
87. vis0

Quoting 1. Patrap:

Sometimes the fates trend to the side of the Human condition, and we are spared
In agreeing Q1., and adding that fate involves the laws of physics (even my crazy theories have to fit the laws of physics otherwise they mean nothing to beings living and trying to enjoy  the physical dimension).

Thank goodness people thought things out
and due to the fact that so many knew of the 190mph possibly coming close to them, they understood to leave and not walk nor drive cars through flood-waters. 

When people communicate knowledge or wisdom from experience(s) the odds of doing better in life rises.
When people only wish or don't communicate that knowledge/wisdom,  the quality of human life diminishes.

Years ago people drove drunk* and family would say oh thats Uncle/Aunt so-n-so let them be, they can't be helped and as children near by heard those words as they grew up / became adults, they put little value as to the dangers of driving drunk and that danger was not on the front burner of their thoughts.

In the last few decades you hear Don't Drive Drunk / don't drive distracted and penalties are also added as some only think "safety" when money is involved. Guess what, now kids grow up hearing don't drive drunk and sure not all will listen but thank goodness many do.

Did some supreme being move you to avoid those dangers (floods, high winds, as an adult, put your safety belt on for you)  or did your own brain THINK "let me do good for myself & others". THINK

Is it better to be the town crier yelling "take heed a storm is a brewing off coast" or be the town crying wondering what could have we done better to save those poor kids that perished in the sudden flood.

*(sadly some still do)
Quoting 20. pipelines:

Thanks Mr. Henson! It's interesting that Patricia did so little damage to, well, anything. If you look at the tree damage from Hurricane Andrew which was similar in size and intensity to Patricia, there is no comparison. In Andrew, there were very few trees left standing, the ones that were, were completely stripped. In Patricia....well, 99% of the trees are still standing. Even though the core was small and hit a virtually unpopulated area, there should be a 10 mile swath with damage similar to Andrew's, but there isn't.

This reminds me of another location on earth that gets hit by numerous major cyclones but usually receives very little wind damage (comparatively), Taiwan, as long as there's isn't huge amounts of rain, they usually get through with very few casualties and low damage.

What do these places have in common? Mountains! Huge mountains, right on the coast. What does Florida and the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard have? Big, flat, beautiful beaches, elevations near sea level for miles inland. While we have a great understand on how topography effects the structure of cyclones, we know nothing about how it effects wind damage. Someone needs to do research into this in my opinion.
There was an interesting discussion here, rather overshadowed by other discussion of TS Erika, about the impacts of mountainous terrain on the track and intensity of hurricanes. I believe the study cited focused on TC behaviours over Hispaniola.
Some of this was posited, if I remember correctly.
Quoting 75. nrtiwlnvragn:

NOAAs P3s are undergoing a service life extension program. This year Kermit is being reconditioned, next year Miss Piggy. Rewing, engine and avionics upgrades. Additional 15-20 years of service life.

Details in Powerpoint (22 mb).
That's about the only option for NASA to keep the planes in service. When they are done, all the important parts of the aircraft will be like new except for most of the fuselage. The SLEP programs have worked well so far for many of the military aircraft that have had them done. Still, the idea of flying a 60 year old aircraft deliberately into a hurricane would be more than I could handle.
90. HTTR
Any guess to why the HH crew is all male?
Thanks dok henson!
Quoting 34. Patrap:






Looks like Patrica's ex-remnant has reached the Landfall Point (Iberia Parish).

In the meantime...
Quoting 88. BahaHurican:

There was an interesting discussion here, rather overshadowed by other discussion of TS Erika, about the impacts of mountainous terrain on the track and intensity of hurricanes. I believe the study cited focused on TC behaviours over Hispaniola.
Some of this was posited, if I remember correctly.
This is a sectional map of the area around Manzanillo airport. The area of landfall is just off the chart to NE. After a narrow coastal plan, the foothills start within about 15 miles, with some "hills" rising to about 3,000 feet. Within about 35 miles, you get a very abrupt rise to over 9,000 feet. The mountains to the NE are just as high. There aren't many coastal areas in the Northern Hemisphere with this kind of topography, and even a strong storm like Patricia is going to start feeling the effects, even before it gets onshore.

That is one of the more complicated lows I've ever seen on the current condition's map. :D Spaghetti storm.
Quoting 54. HurricaneFan:

It's amazing how TS Erika was so much worse than Category 5 Hurricane Patricia. Erika had 50 mph winds at peak and killed 30+ with over $500M in damages. Patricia had 200 mph winds at peak and killed only 13 with only $37M in damage.
Two words. Location. Preparation.

As a point of comparison: Joaquin, with winds close to cat 5, killed no one on land. Damage exceeded $60 milion.

One must take into account all the variables, not just the wind speed.
Quoting 95. BahaHurican:

Two words. Location. Preparation.

As a point of comparison: Joaquin, with winds close to cat 5, killed no one on land. Damage exceeded $60 milion.

One must take into account all the variables, not just the wind speed.


As for what you said about Joaquin-I thought there was more damage.
Quoting 90. HTTR:

Any guess to why the HH crew is all male?
Because males are just better at it. Is that the answer you were looking for?

The crews aren't all male, as shown by his picture.



98. ADCS
Quoting 93. sar2401:

This is a sectional map of the area around Manzanillo airport. The area of landfall is just off the chart to NE. After a narrow coastal plan, the foothills start within about 15 miles, with some "hills" rising to about 3,000 feet. Within about 35 miles, you get a very abrupt rise to over 9,000 feet. The mountains to the NE are just as high. There aren't many coastal areas in the Northern Hemisphere with this kind of topography, and even a strong storm like Patricia is going to start feeling the effects, even before it gets onshore.




Exactly. You could even see the upper level outflow deforming as Patricia approached the coast; likely from the friction caused at the lower levels by the mountains. Patricia will long be studied for terrain effects against extremely powerful tropical cyclones, and I imagine we will learn an incredible amount from it alone.
Despite my hopes for a lovely day, we have already had one round of rain showers due to this so-called ex-Pat low .,.... :o/
Looks like rain for the FL peninsula and perhaps the NW Bahamas as well, unless we see an abrupt Nward shift later today ....

Quoting 80. sar2401:

That's exactly why the public doesn't fly on turboprops if they can avoid it. I don't know what kind of aircraft it was but an EMB 120 Brasilia or a De Havilland Dash-8 are the two likely candidates. Both are much better than earlier turboprops like the Fokker F27, but they are still noisy compared to the much better Canadair Regional Jet. Their climb to height is much slower than a jet, so they tend to fly at lower altitudes on short flights than a comparable jet. The RJ and Brasilia are both pressurized, but the Brasilia has a service ceiling of about 29,000 feet compared to 41,000 feet for the RJ. The lower service ceiling combined with the slower climb to altitude equals a generally bumpier flight. Turboprops are a dying breed in the developed world, even for short haul flights.
Just did a round trip on a Dash 8 this weekend, and I am saying they are a LOT quieter than smaller planes. However, compared to a jet, they're pretty loud. I think they take getting used to if, unlike the average Family-Island-visiting Bahamian, you haven't flown in them on a regular basis.
Quoting 90. HTTR:

Any guess to why the HH crew is all male?
I was thinking that this is a remarkably homogeneous group.
Crazy wind gusts and torrential rain here in Pensacola. You would think we were getting the outer bands of a landfalling hurricane. It comes just like tropical squalls, with every few minutes the sky getting dark with torrential rain and impressive winds and then momentarily abating again.
Quoting 64. flbeachgirl:



I took a prop plane from Jacksonville to Ft. Lauderdale a few years back and I hope to never get on another one. It was much bumpier than a jet and the noise from the prop was awful. I was nearly deaf by the time we landed. I had to go straight to a meeting and my ears were still ringing so bad I could barely hear anything that was said.
My dad took us hopping in Cessnas back in 70's and 80's. I needed to be more like my sister and will myself to sleep during the flight. The nicest looking spring day with sunshine was often the most jarring for turbulence. The video on the post sort of brings back memories of flights after my dad got instrument rated. I think I was a bit young for it. I wasn't ready for noise like that of rain on the windshield and seeing nothing beyond or below. First time he got me into a flight with rain I thought we were in trouble. I'm sure doing it over and over into hurricanes is never 'normal' but gets less concerning over time.

But even back in the day my dad was all about hearing protection with the new fangled compressible foam earplugs. And a stick of Dentine gum. Learned to pop my ears at a early age. And pack earplugs on every trip. You never know what you're on or where you're sitting these days. To me, a jump on a Dehavlin Dash is luxury compared to a Cessna 172. They were still using them around Hilton Head last time I flew a transfer to Charlotte.
Quoting 96. 62901IL:



As for what you said about Joaquin-I thought there was more damage.
I expect it may get to $100 million, but that was an early estimate. The biggest chunk will be intfrastructure, of course, but I expect hefty costs will be incurred by private citizens in Long and Crooked Islands. Verbal reports from Long Island suggest most businesses in the southern half of the island were severely impacted, mainly by flooding.
105. csmda
I am absolutely terrified of flying. I will only do it if someone dies. Put me on a tiny plane with lots of turbulence and I am done. That would be the day I died of fright, lol. I flew from AZ to NY once. After we reach altitude and most regular flyers have dozed off, we hit this huge pocket and the plane drops for a minute. Every single passenger on that plane made a noise when that plane dropped. My youngest and craziest child was 3 at the time. He looked up at me and said "this is going to be fun". Here I am so scared I can hardly speak or move and my 3 yr old is having the time of his life.
Quoting 70. weathermanwannabe:



Almost all commercial airliners went into the jet age but the Soviet's had the swept wing TU-95 Bear (Tupolev) swept wing turbo-prop as a long distance bomber. Interesting design with a few still in service (after 50 years).....The US equivalent of our B-52's in terms of the mission (Strategic Bomber) and long service life.

And with a top speed of 575 mph and flight ceiling of 45,000.00 (comparable to most commercial jet liners) .


I'd give my left...uhh...leg to fly in one of those, but only after they figure out why they seem to be catching on fire. The fleet, which consists of about 15 aircraft, has been grounded since June. I haven't heard of they are flying again. The reports are the crews that flew the TU-95 in the old Soviet air force routinely suffered hearing impairment as serious as becoming totally deaf due to the extremely high noise levels in the plane. The crews now wear active digital noise canceling headphones. The TU-95 is so loud that there's a story of it being detected on sonar while it was still 5 km's away.
Hunting Hugo

In September of 1989, a NOAA hurricane hunter airplane intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story.

— Dr. Jeff Masters (Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground, Inc.)




Alan Goldstein stands amidst the debris. The 200-pound liferaft sits in the middle of the aisle.
Quoting 97. sar2401:

Because males are just better at it. Is that the answer you were looking for?

The crews aren't all male, as shown by his picture.




I bet there's still an "all boys" attitude out there... it's pilot jocks, after all... they figure testosterone is a flight requirement ....

However, I don't seem to recall seeing all that many females flying commercial flights, either.

I wonder if any of our younger wundercrowd is considering the Air Force as a way to get into wx .... making that HHers team must be a challenge and a serious ego boost ...
110. csmda
Quoting 106. sar2401:

I'd give my left...uhh...leg to fly in one of those, but only after they figure out why they seem to be catching on fire. The fleet, which consists of about 15 aircraft, has been grounded since June. I haven't heard of they are flying again. The reports are the crews that flew the TU-95 in the old Soviet air force routinely suffered hearing impairment as serious as becoming totally deaf due to the extremely high noise levels in the plane. The crews now wear active digital noise canceling headphones. The TU-95 is so loud that there's a story of it being detected on sonar while it was still 5 km's away.


My husband had a pair of those when he had to do a year deployment riding in C130s. He had the pleasure of falling asleep with them on and missing the combat landing warning. Imagine waking up to that! The only thing that made him realize they weren't dying was looking over and seeing some of his buddies with their hands up like they were on a roller coaster.
Quoting 105. csmda:

I am absolutely terrified of flying. I will only do it if someone dies. Put me on a tiny plane with lots of turbulence and I am done. That would be the day I died of fright, lol. I flew from AZ to NY once. After we reach altitude and most regular flyers have dozed off, we hit this huge pocket and the plane drops for a minute. Every single passenger on that plane made a noise when that plane dropped. My youngest and craziest child was 3 at the time. He looked up at me and said "this is going to be fun". Here I am so scared I can hardly speak or move and my 3 yr old is having the time of his life.
Have you ever been on a small boat bouncing through the waves? It's about the same thing in terms of physics as an airplane bumping along through turbulence, but almost no one is worried about the boat sinking. It can be scary to hit those downdrafts and updrafts, but the crew and airplane are well able to handle it. A couple of drinks on the plane helps some people. Unfortunately, some passengers start drinking well before they get to the airport. I'm a lot more nervous driving to the airport than when I finally get on a plane. ;-)
113. csmda
Quoting 102. opal92nwf:

Crazy wind gusts and torrential rain here in Pensacola. You would think we were getting the outer bands of a landfalling hurricane. It comes just like tropical squalls, with every few minutes the sky getting dark with torrential rain and impressive winds and then momentarily abating again.


Did you move from Niceville?
Quoting 111. sar2401:

Have you ever been on a small boat bouncing through the waves? It's about the same thing in terms of physics as an airplane bumping along through turbulence, but almost no one is worried about the boat sinking. It can be scary to hit those downdrafts and updrafts, but the crew and airplane are well able to handle it. A couple of drinks on the plane helps some people. Unfortunately, some passengers start drinking well before they get to the airport. I'm a lot more nervous driving to the airport than when I finally get on a plane. ;-)
SAR, to veer OT for a post or two .... did u ever get into the Abacos on any of your trips down this way? It just hit me how boating mad people who live there really are ....
115. csmda
Quoting 111. sar2401:

Have you ever been on a small boat bouncing through the waves? It's about the same thing in terms of physics as an airplane bumping along through turbulence, but almost no one is worried about the boat sinking. It can be scary to hit those downdrafts and updrafts, but the crew and airplane are well able to handle it. A couple of drinks on the plane helps some people. Unfortunately, some passengers start drinking well before they get to the airport. I'm a lot more nervous driving to the airport than when I finally get on a plane. ;-)


I don't like that either! A 5 minute boat ride out to crab island has me gripping the seat. Once I've had a few drinks in me it's all fun and games. I despise pontoons. I am used to light rocking now but even the slightest motion would set me off when we first moved here. I imagine a few more years of boat riding and it will be a non-issue. I hope...


Sar, how's it possible you're not getting any rain? You still live in SE Alabama, right :)?
Quoting 110. csmda:



My husband had a pair of those when he had to do a year deployment riding in C130s. He had the pleasure of falling asleep with them on and missing the combat landing warning. Imagine waking up to that!
LOL. The only time I've been on a C-130 was when our FEMA team got flown from Mountain View to LAX for the 1994 Northridge earthquake. All they gave us was those foam rubber earplugs that fall out as soon as you put them in. I couldn't hear anything for the next day after the flight, including calls on the radio trying to get me. Once we got the C-130 loaded back up after the deployment, I paid for a commercial shuttle flight in a nice quiet 737 rather than taking that ride again.
Quoting 116. tampabaymatt:



Sar, how's it possible you're not getting any rain? You still live in SE Alabama, right :)?
Yes. The light green areas on radar are almost 100% virga. The only real areas of rain seem to be what's in yellow, and they are going to the west of me, or evaporating as they move north. If you zoom in on the area from Dothan to Eufaula, you'll see the lack of anything happening. I seem to be the STS analog, except in the wrong direction. :-)
Quoting 113. csmda:



Did you move from Niceville?

temporarily, for school
Quoting 116. tampabaymatt:



Sar, how's it possible you're not getting any rain? You still live in SE Alabama, right :)?


Ditto here in Northwest Florida. We are located on Highway 79 Just South of the Alabama Border. We had a brief period of moderate rain prior to sunrise, with a good bit of windiness. Since then, no rain.
Quoting 118. sar2401:

Yes. The light green areas on radar are almost 100% virga. The only real areas of rain seem to be what's in yellow, and they are going to the west of me, or evaporating as they move north. If you zoom in on the area from Dothan to Eufaula, you'll see the lack of anything happening. I seem to be the STS analog, except in the wrong direction. :-)
Looks like there's more of a chance this afternoon, though I don't know how much rain you will actually get.
Quoting 120. HondosGirl:



Ditto here in Northwest Florida. We are located on Highway 79 Just North of the Alabama Border. We had a brief period of moderate rain prior to sunrise, with a good bit of windiness. Since then, no rain.


Do you mean just south of the Alabama border?
Quoting 114. BahaHurican:

SAR, to veer OT for a post or two .... did u ever get into the Abacos on any of your trips down this way? It just hit me how boating mad people who live there really are ....
Yes, I did. Beautiful area, but Marsh Harbor had one of the most expensive marinas I've even been in. The last time I was there was 1998, and an overnight slip cost me $90! That's what I got for not asking before I tied up. There were some of the most beautiful yachts I've ever seen there, so your description of boating mad is apropos. Luckily, there are a lot of uninhabited cays with nice mangroves to gunkhole in, so I didn't have to pay that kind of money every night. :-)
Olaf's surface and elevated circulations are now in both the CPac and EPac, respectively.
For any monitoring the SC river flooding, we are finally about to see major flooding downgraded to MINOR FLOODING after 3 weeks + of high water!

Can someone please tell me how to post a picture or upload a graph???

Waccamaw River near Conway

Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 14
Moderate Flood Stage: 12
Flood Stage: 11
Action Stage: 10

Historic Crests
(1) 17.80 ft on 09/30/1928
(2) 17.60 ft on 09/27/1999
(3) 16.20 ft on 10/10/2015
(4) 16.07 ft on 10/08/2015
(5) 15.60 ft on 09/29/1945
Quoting 125. FyrtleMyrtle:

For any monitoring the SC river flooding, we are finally about to see major flooding downgraded to MINOR FLOODING after 3 weeks of high water!

Can someone please tell me how to post a picture or upload a graph???

Waccamaw River near Conway

Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 14
Moderate Flood Stage: 12
Flood Stage: 11
Action Stage: 10

Historic Crests
(1) 17.80 ft on 09/30/1928
(2) 17.60 ft on 09/27/1999
(3) 16.20 ft on 10/10/2015
(4) 16.07 ft on 10/08/2015
(5) 15.60 ft on 09/29/1945


Right click on the image you want to post, and then click properties. Copy the Image URL to your clipboard, and then go back to WU. Click on the picture frame-looking thing and then post the Image URL you copied from the picture in that box.
Quoting 121. BahaHurican:

Looks like there's more of a chance this afternoon, though I don't know how much rain you will actually get.
That's what the Boys in Birmingham are saying now. OTOH, the dry slot now affecting me wasn't predicted earlier this morning either. They have now backed off the fabulous general rain as well, with some spots getting all the way up to a quarter inch!!! I swear, Noah could sail over here and end up grounded. :-)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL DRY SLOT WORKED INTO ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND THE RAIN
COVERAGE BECAME VERY SPOTTY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST ALABAMA. THE
RAIN HAS BEGUN TO FILL BACK IN OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS STILL BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND...WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY...AND ANY WIND GUST ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY CONFINED TO SUMTER
AND MARENGO COUNTIES. WILL REMOVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES FROM THE WIND ADVISORY.
As I promised earlier, I wrote a blog about this possible subtropical/tropical cyclone that was southwest of the Iberian Peninsula 5-10 days ago: Link :)

129. csmda
Quoting 119. opal92nwf:


temporarily, for school


Nice :)
Quoting 115. csmda:



I don't like that either! A 5 minute boat ride out to crab island has me gripping the seat. Once I've had a few drinks in me it's all fun and games. I despise pontoons. I am used to light rocking now but even the slightest motion would set me off when we first moved here. I imagine a few more years of boat riding and it will be a non-issue. I hope...
OK then, a couple of drinks and a valium. :-) You drive a car, right? Does it go up and down over bumps, and get pushed around in strong winds? I imagine it does, but I'll bet you don't spend a lot of time worrying about a wheel flying off or the fenders coming loose. I think it's really a control issue for most of us. As long as we're driving the car, we can handle whatever comes up. Turning over your life to a bunch of strangers, well, that's another story. It was really terrible for me once airlines started putting the flight display on the overhead monitors with all the parameters there for me to see. If I didn't slap myself, I ended up mentally flying the plane. :-)
The radar loops and satt shots are sometimes deceiving (what you are seeing versus what is happening on the ground); lots of greens/yellows over Tallahassee but the fact of the matter (and we just went out for lunch the past 2 hours) is that it is just overcast with no rain all morning.



India Meteorological Department
Satellite Description Bulletin
20:30 PM IST October 26 2015
======================

Vortex over Arabian Sea centered near 7.0N 66.0E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Vortex of Southwestern Indian Ocean centered near 7.0S 56.0E.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
I remember wearing shorts and socks like that..............Yikes!




Alan Goldstein stands amidst the debris. The 200-pound liferaft sits in the middle of the aisle.
Quoting 130. sar2401:

OK then, a couple of drinks and a valium. :-) You drive a car, right? Does it go up and down over bumps, and get pushed around in strong winds? I imagine it does, but I'll bet you don't spend a lot of time worrying about a wheel flying off or the fenders coming loose. I think it's really a control issue for most of us. As long as we're driving the car, we can handle whatever comes up. Turning over your life to a bunch of strangers, well, that's another story. It was really terrible for me once airlines started putting the flight display on the overhead monitors with all the parameters there for me to see. If I didn't slap myself, I ended up mentally flying the plane. :-)


I have the control issue on long car trips when I let one of my sons do some of the driving.

To settle the fly/drive debate for those who haven't seen my previous posts

I have three teenagers

All three have drivers licenses.
None have Pilots licenses.


Does that settle the question??
Quoting 127. sar2401:

That's what the Boys in Birmingham are saying now. OTOH, the dry slot now affecting me wasn't predicted earlier this morning either. They have now backed off the fabulous general rain as well, with some spots getting all the way up to a quarter inch!!! I swear, Noah could sail over here and end up grounded. :-)



Amazing. I've got an inch in the gauge and it's still raining (lightly).
Quoting 130. sar2401:

OK then, a couple of drinks and a valium. :-) You drive a car, right? Does it go up and down over bumps, and get pushed around in strong winds? I imagine it does, but I'll bet you don't spend a lot of time worrying about a wheel flying off or the fenders coming loose. I think it's really a control issue for most of us. As long as we're driving the car, we can handle whatever comes up. Turning over your life to a bunch of strangers, well, that's another story. It was really terrible for me once airlines started putting the flight display on the overhead monitors with all the parameters there for me to see. If I didn't slap myself, I ended up mentally flying the plane. :-)


I've been on a small (20 foot) boat going about 20 knots over a three foot swell. It was very hard, much worse than any turbulence in the air or bumps I've hit in a car. I was frequently and regularly slammed into the seat once or twice a minute. 20 mile trip from Long Island to someplace in the exumas that had many iguanas which the kids and I fed. With that many iguanas and a finite amount of food I also felt like James Bond in "Live and let Die" where the alligators were gathering around his few chickens. 6-10 foot swell in the 40 foot boat I fish in doesn't seem to be as hard.
Quoting 131. weathermanwannabe:

The radar loops and satt shots are sometimes deceiving (what you are seeing versus what is happening on the ground); lots of greens/yellows over Tallahassee but the fact of the matter (and we just went out for lunch the past 2 hours) is that it is just overcast with no rain all morning.




Especially on the rainbow view, which makes everything look more exciting than it is. :-)

This is the WU radar. I'm under the cross in the circle. There has been mid-level dry air working its way here from the east all morning, and now its seems to be spreading further west. Everything is getting that Swiss cheese look on radar now. The SPC has now removed the "Slight" risk for tornadoes from the Panhandle and south Alabama. Even the remaining risk looks pretty doubtful right now. Unless something changes soon, this looks like a pretty big forecast bust for me.

Quoting 128. Zivipotty:

As I promised earlier, I wrote a blog about this possible subtropical/tropical cyclone that was southwest of the Iberian Peninsula 5-10 days ago: Link :)




Why was this not declared a cyclone? I DEMAND ANSWERS
Quoting 135. Alagirl:


Amazing. I've got an inch in the gauge and it's still raining (lightly).
It really is. There are times I think SE Alabama is in another climate zone or something. I saw this dry air starting about 7:00 this morning and thought this wasn't a good sign. I posted a day or two ago that I didn't think I'd get more than an inch, hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Now it looks like an inch may be out of reach. Do me a favor and drive about 800 gallons of that rain over here and drop it off on the lawn. :-)
Quoting 138. tampabaymatt:


Looks like you're using the Red Bay radar site. Switch to the Ft. Rucker site and you'll get a more accurate picture of what's happening here.
142. vis0

Quoting 36. sar2401:

I don't think it was overhyped, it's just that the exact point of landfall was uncertain almost up to the time landfall occured. If the storm went about 50 km to the south, it would have made nearly a direct hit on Manzanillo. That would have been a disaster in terms of lives and property damage. Manzanillo is the chief port of Mexico, and wrecking those facilities would have been a real economic blow to the country. Anytime we have a storm that's the most intense that's ever occured in the Western Hemisphere it's obviously going to get a lot of attention. The more or less continuous flights by the hurricane hunters also allowed this to be the most heavily instrumented flight in history. Without recon, Patricia probably would have been an intense but not record breaking storm. Shows why recon is so important, and how little we really may know about big storms that didn't have flights.
If i may sar2401 agree with you and then add my  two pence or as they say in Britain 2 xxx or not 2 xxx ...uhh scratch the British translation.

Those that think a record breaking or even CAT3 Hurricane does not deserve attention to the hypth degree, then go do the following experiment.

- Get a small sheet of toilet paper.
- A pen, preferably the type that can write on crappy paper.
- Draw on that piece of (Unused) TP a small swirl. (don't waste a good piece of paper) If you can create an e-TP and use an e-Map in a paint program do so)
- Tear out that small swirl you drew. (if its on the compu'r uhh don't tear it out, just move it around as need be...the latter instructions are more FOR ME)
- Find a map of Mexico and a map of your area/where you live.
- FIRST place that piece of TP with the swirl drawn on it 200 miles off shore of Mexico's coast, what do you think? 
- Then move that piece of paper 200 miles off shore of where you live (if you presently live inland, then imagine you lived on a tropical coastline) , what do you think?
- Now no matter where you live imagine how you would feel if after being told there is a cat3 (to cat5) Hurricane 200 miles offshore heading within 50 miles of your home in 24-48 hrs,  then all of a sudden attention was drawn to some other news stories 'cause some called in from other areas of the world stating that the cat3 storm is being over hyped.

_ Would you pack up and go...and in which direction (hopefully inland , but inland N, E, S, W?)
_ Would you stay, if you have family w/ or w/o family * friends?
_ Do you have food to survive the 2-6 days IF the storm demolishes all around you including food stores.
_ Do you have clean water.
_ Do you wait till phone service comes back before yelling for someone to help after you decided to walk outside by yourself and trek 6 miles and the only thing you found was destruction (leaving out deaths) and holes in the ground that caused both ankles to sprain.
_ Do you then, weeks later after everything returns to 15% (FIFTEEN Percent) of normal, post comments that there is not enough hyping of on-coming storms or a comment as "no one told me".

Over hyped might be as to a TS/HURRICANE 125 hrs. out NOT even developed yet,...

(yes GFS talking 'bout you and yer cousins)

 ...or over hyped might be a small storms and not getting the 2-3 inches expected in 24 hrs instead all you got was a sprinkle (sit down sar2401 not talking of SE Bama)

Once it is considered ANY major storm (it exists) and you are near the cone of danger @48 hrs out, most i think prefer the hype even if that saves 1 life from death or any pain, even if that life is yours.


One has the right to write as the wish, just remember this site at times is directly connected to those that need info to stay safe.

When one makes a statement as to life and death situations, make sure that statement makes sense for all involved, specially those in the situation that is at question.

Life is not a video game.
i was up in north-central Florida and never have seen it so dry. it seems as if the dry air has the upper hand so far.
Quoting 141. sar2401:

Looks like you're using the Red Bay radar site. Switch to the Ft. Rucker site and you'll get a more accurate picture of what's happening here.


Yes, this is the Red Bay WU radar site. Even still, you can clearly see the dry slot over you between Dothan and Columbus. Maybe that big mess of convection in the northern Gulf will hold together, it looks to be on a trajectory towards you.
Quoting 118. sar2401:

Yes. The light green areas on radar are almost 100% virga. The only real areas of rain seem to be what's in yellow, and they are going to the west of me, or evaporating as they move north. If you zoom in on the area from Dothan to Eufaula, you'll see the lack of anything happening. I seem to be the STS analog, except in the wrong direction. :-)


DC metro also has not gotten much rain since the first days of October but this far north and this late in the season, evaporation is way down. The heavy rains the weekend of 10/3-4 and preceding heavy rains 9/29 soaked soils and we're probably good for the season for garden plants. Our shallow wells and aquifers recharge in winter and a dry winter does cause problems but that doesn't look in the cards this year. Of note, the minimum recorded daily flow of the Potomac River, about 280m gallons in Sept. 1966 is less than the daily draw on many days now.

We are up to .64 inches so far here between Pensacola and Panama City.. lots of yellow heading our way so we might get close to the 5" forecast...
Roaming through the news over lunch I found an article about some Vegetarian hot dogs containing human DNA, and had the thought, what's so surprising about that? Aren't vegetarian hot dogs made out of... vegetarians?? (ba da bump)
Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:

I don't like the comparison of a CAT5 hurricane with an EF5 Tornado. The wind damage of each will not be similar. This has been discussed many times.
Hurricane Charley (CAT4 hurricane 145 mph, gusts 160 mph) showed EF2 Tornado damage by comparison.

Here's EF5 tornado damage.

The only time I've seen a hurricane or typhoon do similar damage it was caused by the storm surge not the wind.


Dr. Fujita surveyed Andrew's damage and noted F-3 damage in the Naranja/Leisure City area IIRC.
Quoting 129. csmda:



Nice :)


How did you manage to get a 'Member Since' of December 31st, 1969?
149. vis0

Quoting 62. sar2401:

Even the fastest turboprop airliners fly at least 100 mph slower than any pure jet aircraft. The best turboprop airliner is much noisier than the worst jet. The public has gotten used to jets being the most desirable type of aircraft for flights over an hour or so. They have tolerated prop planes for puddle jumping flights but even that market is being taken over by short takeoff and landing jets.

The reason why the P-3 Orion is used for the HH flights is because it's available and relatively cheap. The Navy is phasing out the much newer P-3's in its fleet for the pure jet P-8A Poseidon, a militarized version of the Boeing 737-800 airliner. It is faster and has a somewhat longer loiter time over the desired area. The two P-3's in the NOAA fleet were put in service in 1976, so they are now approaching 40 years in service, a long time for an aircraft subject to the stress of hurricane hunting. Replacing them with the P-8 would be a hugely expensive proposition. The P-3 is no longer being built, so the only other option would be used but upgraded P-3's, still very expensive.
as i've stated since i first wrote the following to NOAA in the 1990s, later TwCh then on line that  newer planes composite materials will suffer as to smoke conditions within fast rotating LOWs and other natural occurrences via an undiscovered or not understood static. I'm done explain that but for those that study aviation keep an eye out for more and more jet planes with modern skins developing more and more unexplained smoke conditions. No one cared to ask 'bout when i'd mail them 10-20 pgs of theories and i'm retired now. Careful with tanks not fully filled , as this static warms up wiring from the outside in (yes out in, weird its Galacsic static, ethereal towards physical), in trying to ground itself but since the plane is not toughing ground while in-air it continues to go round and round the wiring heating things up till smoke begins. This will happen more as we head into this planets precession focusing ethereal energies from the Sun not its black hole sibling  (not to worry too much till 6,000AD till 10,000AD THEN worry, but i think strong storms & aGw is more important as to weather)

i in my terrible use of words/grammar nicknamed it "an electrical epileptic attack of high rotating engines or devices and left ideas as the fine mist / nozzle spraying of non volatile oils within gaseous areas can help till the plane does an return or closest airport landing. Comes from a theory of mine from the 1970s i wrote for my science teacher, certain oils help the brain control epileptic attacks (theory i gave interns at Bellevue Hospital in the early 1990s, was a housekeeper/maintenance worker there late 1980s-2001AD). Oil & leaning how to pinch nose with nose muscles (NOT TOUCHING NOSE with hands) while inward breaths, then expand/flare nose  or open mouth for the outward breath and reading brain signals during that breathing technique should help figure out Parkinson for those studying the human brain.     Left several clues how laughing cures by balancing negative/chaotic energies that enter ones breath and flourish certain diseases.

Posted this here as to the plane - static explanation, added the rest 'cause i have a problem in stopping cold when posting ideas that can help humanity so add fringes of other semi-related theories i had from the 1970s in case it helps humanity.


AH THERE i went back to writing in a manner that even sar2401 cannot understand...i'M BACK TO NORMAL

 placing myself on a 72 hr ban...so moderators don't get ulcers from tough decisions.
 see ya Thursday/Friday (30th) and read what i posted on earlier blogs as to the SE USofA  dev. weather.

 stay aware, observe & learn.

@sar2401 15 foot seas on a 70 foot boat never bothered me because you can time the waves and anticipate the boat's movement fairly well. However I am incredibly nervous during turbulence on aircraft because there is no predictability in intensity or direction of the plane's movement. The lack of the ability to anticipate the plane's motion is what freaks me out.

Same thing with cars. Your other example. I can see the bumps the car is going over and anticipate them. Having no reference point and no ability to predict motion is the issue.
151. csmda
Quoting 148. OviedoWatcher:



How did you manage to get a 'Member Since' of December 31st, 1969?


I have magic pants. I have a few extra pair I am going to sell for 3 easy payments of $99.95. If you act quickly you'll get free shipping & handling.

I do wish admin would somehow fix that glitch but maybe they don't know how without deleting the account.
Quoting 139. Famoguy1234:



Why was this not declared a cyclone? I DEMAND ANSWERS


Maybe the NHC didn't notice this (it was out of the GOES-EAST satellite range), or they didn't think that the cyclone will be so long-lasting at its subtropical/tropical stages. I hope that they will add this into the season in the post season analysis.
153. 882MB
Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST MON OCT 26 2015

...FLASH FLOODING WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-270800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151028T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAN JUAN...CAROLINA...FAJARDO...
HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...SALINAS... COCO...CAGUAS...
ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...
VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...ISABELA.. .HATILLO...
QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...
HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...LAJAS...
CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
209 PM AST MON OCT 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REGION COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. THEREFORE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURED IN RECENT DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

ER/RGH

Quoting 149. vis0:


as i've stated since i first wrote the following to NOAA in the 1990s, later TwCh then on line that newer planes composite materials will suffer as to smoke conditions within fast rotating LOWs and other natural occurrences via an undiscovered or not understood static. {Snip}...
I'm going to save your post and read it over a couple of times. Not that I'm ignoring you, Vis, just that my afternoon nap time is about here, When that happens, complex ideas are pretty much impossible for the elderly. :-)
Quoting 149. vis0:


as i've stated since i first wrote the following to NOAA in the 1990s, later TwCh then on line that  newer planes composite materials will suffer as to smoke conditions within fast rotating LOWs and other natural occurrences via an undiscovered or not understood static. I'm done explain that but for those that study aviation keep an eye out for more and more jet planes with modern skins developing more and more unexplained smoke conditions. No one cared to ask 'bout when i'd mail them 10-20 pgs of theories and i'm retired now. Careful with tanks not fully filled , as this static warms up wiring from the outside in (yes out in, weird its Galacsic static, ethereal towards physical), in trying to ground itself but since the plane is not toughing ground while in-air it continues to go round and round the wiring heating things up till smoke begins. This will happen more as we head into this planets precession focusing ethereal energies from the Sun not its black hole sibling  (not to worry too much till 6,000AD till 10,000AD THEN worry, but i think strong storms & aGw is more important as to weather)

i in my terrible use of words/grammar nicknamed it "an electrical epileptic attack of high rotating engines or devices and left ideas as the fine mist / nozzle spraying of non volatile oils within gaseous areas can help till the plane does an return or closest airport landing. Comes from a theory of mine from the 1970s i wrote for my science teacher, certain oils help the brain control epileptic attacks (theory i gave interns at Bellevue Hospital in the early 1990s, was a housekeeper/maintenance worker there late 1980s-2001AD). Oil & leaning how to pinch nose with nose muscles (NOT TOUCHING NOSE with hands) while inward breaths, then expand/flare nose  or open mouth for the outward breath and reading brain signals during that breathing technique should help figure out Parkinson for those studying the human brain.     Left several clues how laughing cures by balancing negative/chaotic energies that enter ones breath and flourish certain diseases.

Posted this here as to the plane - static explanation, added the rest 'cause i have a problem in stopping cold when posting ideas that can help humanity so add fringes of other semi-related theories i had from the 1970s in case it helps humanity.


AH THERE i went back to writing in a manner that even sar2401 cannot understand...i'M BACK TO NORMAL

 placing myself on a 72 hr ban...so moderators don't get ulcers from tough decisions.
 see ya Thursday/Friday (30th) and read what i posted on earlier blogs as to the SE USofA  dev. weather.

 stay aware, observe & learn.




You sent that information to NOAA and other folks and they didn't respond with a hearty attaboy? Hard to believe.
Quoting 152. Zivipotty:



Maybe the NHC didn't notice this (it was out of the GOES-EAST satellite range), or they didn't think that the cyclone will be so long-lasting at its subtropical/tropical stages. I hope that they will add this into the season in the post season analysis.
The NHC is only responsible for storms that form from 31N and south. That cyclone was too far north for them to track. I don't know what agency in Europe or Africa is responsible for that area, but it's not the NHC.
157. Gaara
Quoting 103. cynvision:

And pack earplugs on every trip. You never know what you're on or where you're sitting these days. To me, a jump on a Dehavlin Dash is luxury compared to a Cessna 172. They were still using them around Hilton Head last time I flew a transfer to Charlotte.


I'm sure it's different when flying into smaller airports, but on every flight I've taken in the last 5 years, I've known EXACTLY what aircraft each leg of the trip would be, and have planned accordingly. Every major airline posts the aircraft on the itinerary nowadays and about 90% of flights allow for seat selection, so you can head on over to seatguru and avoid the crappy ones.

I fly with in-ear monitor headphones that do a wonderful job of drowning out the hum anytime I'm on a prop, although they couldn't quite handle the drone of the Islander we flew on down in Puerto Rico this past winter.
Quoting 144. tampabaymatt:



Yes, this is the Red Bay WU radar site. Even still, you can clearly see the dry slot over you between Dothan and Columbus. Maybe that big mess of convection in the northern Gulf will hold together, it looks to be on a trajectory towards you.
Son of a gun! It just started raining! Not rain exactly, but a very heavy mist that looks like it might turn into rain. About time. Maybe I can now take my map and listen to some rain on the roof. My naps are always better when it rains. :-)


Seems like Panama City has been getting hit hard all day.
Mo, and mo ....

New Orleans, LA WFO – Visible
Enhanced Overlay Loop

click image for loop

Parts of Dauphin Island are out of Power.
Quoting 161. Patrap:

New Orleans, LA WFO – Visible
Enhanced Overlay Loop

click image for loop




Tight little circulation! Specially considering the overall size of the wind field.

Orleans Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather RadioCoastal Flood WarningStatement as of 11:21 AM CDT on October 26, 2015

... Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this
evening...

* coastal flooding... 2 to 3 feet above normal tides west of the
Mississippi River. East of the Mississippi River including the
tidal lakes and coastal Mississippi... tides are even higher at
3 to 4 feet above normal. Localized higher levels are
possible.

* Timing... water levels will remain elevated through much of today
and possibly longer along the Mississippi Coast... Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

* Impacts... minor and moderate inundation of low lying roads and
areas along the Louisiana coastline... especially low lying
areas around Lake Pontchartrain... breten sound... tidal
influenced areas near maurapas and Killian. In addition all of
the lower lying areas of the Mississippi coast may be impacted
by moderate inundation.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.

Quoting 156. sar2401:

The NHC is only responsible for storms that form from 31N and south. That cyclone was too far north for them to track. I don't know what agency in Europe or Africa is responsible for that area, but it's not the NHC.


I don't think this is the reason. For example, Vince (2005) and Grace (2009) formed north from 31N, Grace also well north from 35N. Link Link But these storm formed a bit west (Grace more west) than the actual cyclone, and they were stronger too.
Quoting 156. sar2401:

The NHC is only responsible for storms that form from 31N and south. That cyclone was too far north for them to track. I don't know what agency in Europe or Africa is responsible for that area, but it's not the NHC.


Cmon Sar that's not true I live north of 31N :p You're probably thinking of what they talk about in their "tropical weather discussions".


just updated
I think that squall line that formed off NE Mexico and S Texas robbed the storm's moisture on land.
If the center over LA skipped back into the GOM,I bet it would get even stronger...
Quoting 168. tampabaymatt:



just updated
Back in purple?, oh that's 7day, we are supposed to get more in S C IL next weekend, current estimate for tomorrow is about an 1". However, we've not received anywhere near estimates so far.

Still must be getting E winds from the H, as dew pts in 30s, highs in the mid 60s today, press reflects a H, 30.2".

Any Arch fans, the P-D website, stltoday.com, has some nice photos from readers (an esp nice one of it rising above fog I assume) and old ones from its construction. 50th anny of final span being put in is Wed. Were only off 3/8" in end, not bad for two 600+ ft spans. Said that was easily accommodated.
Quoting 149. vis0:


as i've stated since i first wrote the following to NOAA in the 1990s, later TwCh then on line that  newer planes composite materials will suffer as to smoke conditions within fast rotating LOWs and other natural occurrences via an undiscovered or not understood static. I'm done explain that but for those that study aviation keep an eye out for more and more jet planes with modern skins developing more and more unexplained smoke conditions. No one cared to ask 'bout when i'd mail them 10-20 pgs of theories and i'm retired now. Careful with tanks not fully filled , as this static warms up wiring from the outside in (yes out in, weird its Galacsic static, ethereal towards physical), in trying to ground itself but since the plane is not toughing ground while in-air it continues to go round and round the wiring heating things up till smoke begins. This will happen more as we head into this planets precession focusing ethereal energies from the Sun not its black hole sibling  (not to worry too much till 6,000AD till 10,000AD THEN worry, but i think strong storms & aGw is more important as to weather)

i in my terrible use of words/grammar nicknamed it "an electrical epileptic attack of high rotating engines or devices and left ideas as the fine mist / nozzle spraying of non volatile oils within gaseous areas can help till the plane does an return or closest airport landing. Comes from a theory of mine from the 1970s i wrote for my science teacher, certain oils help the brain control epileptic attacks (theory i gave interns at Bellevue Hospital in the early 1990s, was a housekeeper/maintenance worker there late 1980s-2001AD). Oil & leaning how to pinch nose with nose muscles (NOT TOUCHING NOSE with hands) while inward breaths, then expand/flare nose  or open mouth for the outward breath and reading brain signals during that breathing technique should help figure out Parkinson for those studying the human brain.     Left several clues how laughing cures by balancing negative/chaotic energies that enter ones breath and flourish certain diseases.

Posted this here as to the plane - static explanation, added the rest 'cause i have a problem in stopping cold when posting ideas that can help humanity so add fringes of other semi-related theories i had from the 1970s in case it helps humanity.


AH THERE i went back to writing in a manner that even sar2401 cannot understand...i'M BACK TO NORMAL

 placing myself on a 72 hr ban...so moderators don't get ulcers from tough decisions.
 see ya Thursday/Friday (30th) and read what i posted on earlier blogs as to the SE USofA  dev. weather.

 stay aware, observe & learn.





I think you're saying the planes build up static electricity while flying w/ no way to discharge.

I remember reading about Navy ships coming back stateside and the hull needed a degaussing....somewhat analogous I suppose
Quoting 139. Famoguy1234:



Why was this not declared a cyclone? I DEMAND ANSWERS

Back in about Feb. 2011 something a lot weaker was declared and invest in the same area and I remember Skyepony putting forward the reason for that was that it was very close to the entrance to the Mediterranean Sea and major shipping routes.
This storm off the coast of Portugal which then sank down to the Canary islands and has caused a massive amount of flooding there.
I am amazed it did not receive more attention and even now there is almost no information about it.
So far about 20 million Euros worth of damage has been declared as a result of flooding.
A lot of flooding will have also occurred in Morocco.

Meanwhile we had about 3+ inches of rain in Malaga Spain today but that's nothing compared to what fell in the Canary Islands.
“A Crime Against Humanity” — Hothouse Wildfire Smoke Sickens 500,000 As Indonesian Officials Plan For Mass Evacuations

It’s official, the 2015 Indonesian wildfires are the worst that Island nation has ever experienced. Worse than even the terrible 1997 wildfires and possibly the worst wildfire disaster ever. And it’s all an upshot of what happens when slash and burn agriculture meets a once lush land now sweltering in a human hothouse world.

Link



Wildfires decimate orangutans in Indonesia

The early morning air of the Indonesian rainforest is hazy with smoke. Staff of the charity International Animal Rescue (IAR) breathe through cloth masks as they search for a dehydrated — and possibly dying — orangutan and her infant spotted the previous night.

Link
Looks like this weekend in Houston more flooding potential with a pacific low heading this way. Said some spots could get 3-6 inches. We shall see!
I saw on the Spanish news tonight a video of a very large gravel train derailed in Texas by floods.
I have no more information then this but things looked bad.
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
200 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015

EARLIER DATA SUGGESTED THAT OLAF WAS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH A LOW
LEVEL CENTER SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE...MICROWAVE AND LIGHTNING DATA FROM
RIGHT AROUND THE 1800 UTC SYNOPTIC HOUR AND MORE RECENT DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ACTUALLY EAST OF 140W...OR MAY HAVE
REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...

SINCE OLAF HAS MOVED EAST OF 140W...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

94A:



HWRF:



GFS:



Euro:



The Euro/GFS are in better agreement with the track and both have it landfalling in almost the same location - in the vicinity of Al Mukalla. Will be keeping an eye on this over the next few days or so. Hopefully it won't strengthen more than forecast.


Whats this I see? A tropical cyclone in the sw Caribbean? Maybe it's not really over yet.
Quoting 176. PlazaRed:

I saw on the Spanish news tonight a video of a very large gravel train derailed in Texas by floods.
I have no more information then this but things looked bad.


If that is the same one I posted the picture of yesterday, then no one got hurt.
As a slight diversion, and speaking to the yet to be explained static build up in planes, I'm reminded of a story of a janitor who solved the billion dollar problem of preventing the B-1 bomber wings from tearing off along the fusalage during high G turns. The B -1 was about to be scrapped. The janitor told R&D staff to drill 1" holes every 6" along each wing at the fusalage. This worked. When brought to the President to receive a commendation, he was asked how an uneducated janitor could solve such a problem. He said being a janitor 30 years, he'd never seen TP tear off where the holes are. Never under-estimate anyone's powers of observation.
NHC area from National Hurricane Operations Plan







Link



As far as that storm, surface charts showed it attached to a front.
Quoting 54. HurricaneFan:

It's amazing how TS Erika was so much worse than Category 5 Hurricane Patricia. Erika had 50 mph winds at peak and killed 30+ with over $500M in damages. Patricia had 200 mph winds at peak and killed only 13 with only $37M in damage.
Quoting 58. JrWeathermanFL:



This is why tropical cyclones intrigue me. It's not just a matter of how powerful the storm is..You have to take into consideration the geography and demographics(population and density) of the place it hits. Size of the storm makes a lot of difference too.

I honestly believe that if Danny hit where Erika did, Erika would cause more damage. Erika was a rainmaker. Danny was small. Rain caused most of the damage on Dominica.

That's why TDs can be so destructive, while Cat 5s like Emily don't get retired. It's amazing.

Actually, Erika and other following tropical system impacts in Dominica were in fact worsened due to many different variables -Firstly, Given the already saturated nature of the top soil region in certain areas particularly in the south since there were copious showers falling just prior to the major impact from the intense thundershowers which were triggered by Erika. Additionally the storm's most intense and deadly concentration of convection affected the Commonwealth of Dominica for several hours on end... which is in NO WAY COMPARABLE TO THE VERY BRIEF IMPACT FROM A WEAKENING HURRICANE ALBEIT AT CAT 5 STRENGTH, BUT WHICH WAS CONFINED TO A VERY NARROW CONE, AND WHICH WAS ALSO MOVING AT 20 MPH IF NOT QUICKER AT LANDFALL. THERE IS NO COMPARING BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS (I BELIEVE A SIMILAR CASE IN POINT EXISTS FOR THE CLOSE BRUSH OF CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE GILBERT IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WHICH CAUSED RELATIVELY LITTLE DAMAGE SIMILAR TO HURRICANE PATRICIA- AGAIN OWING TO THE NARROW SWATH OR CONE OF SEVER TO CATASTROPHIC IMPACT).

ADDITIONALLY, other factors made the Pre-Erika SITUATION A LOT MORE PRECARIOUS -Given that we were hard hit in the Lesser Antilles by the ongoing EL NINO effects which has resulted in a Much DRIER than usual rainy season thus far this year, & added to this were the already compounded & hardened top soil layers which ultimately resulted in the torrential rains just running off the parched earth causing unprecedented Flooding and FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE. So much of the usually manageable rainfall amounts (for example from the remnants of Grace and the additional tropical waves' precipitations) that Were falling were in-fact almost immediately contributing to Overland flow and excessive run-off into rivers whose bed are now elevated and silted resulting in almost instantaneous flood events- flash floods, land slips, inundation of flood plains and the like.
Speaking of the radar- Prolonged study of the available satellite & especially radar loops from Erika's impact appear to confirm a more southerly Low level center of circulation at the time of impact especially for ours -the island of the Commonwealth of Dominica, -which amassed extremely intense convection and thunderstorms clusters that subsequently gave rise to the astronomical rainfall totals- triggering major flooding and historic flash flood damage in Dominica. Again re: tropical storm and heavy rainfall system impacts -such was the eerily similar case with Etau's impact of heavy rainfall (20 inches) on Joso City in North east Japan- comparatively an accumulation of about 18.5 inches was recorded at my site here in the Nature Island, Dominica.

Its definitely a more sobering and crucial indication of the deadly risks and threats especially associated with moisture laden tropical storms; namely potentially deadly precipitation. Case in point -Tropical storm Allison in Houston, Texas- 2001; that had its name officially retired as a result of the scale of devastation.
Erika's has already been unofficially retired in Dominica... I trust that the NHC And the World meteorological organization (WMO) will do the same.

Also, Today -Interesting report of Hail in Aruba (see Link http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/aruba.shtml) from Yesterday's active weather set up due the interaction of an upper Level Trough (Atlantic Cyclonic Circulation center) low pressure feature near Puerto Rico combined earlier with the latent energy from the outflow of Patricia in our basin. This time of the year more of our attention shifts to the potential impacts of mid to low level troughs which have already been damaging- most recently with the impacts caused in Trinidad and Tobago; more so Tobago and now with the likely effects anticipated over Hispaniola this week according to the GFS model prediction.

May God's Grace & Providence continue to be with us ALL!
Quoting 168. tampabaymatt:



just updated


Look at California, probably shaking their heads at that blank space while basically 99% of the rest of the 48 have some chance of rain.

Rain can keep coming, won't ever see me complain about it. :)
Any word on the La Manzanilla Beach Cam folks?
Quoting 187. GeoffreyWPB:


Something is "cooking" south of my house.....
9.13" for the storm so far,with light drizzle currently.

My Locale is above the O, and in between the red interstate Line and the Lake S. Shore





Quoting 186. houstonnaut:

Any word on the La Manzanilla Beach Cam folks?
Yes, this is Daniel Heraras's message board. He's OK and has been posting since yesterday. His beach bar and office was destroyed by a combination of surge and wind, but he's starting to rebuild. His message board is used a lot to connect other expats and winter tourists in La Manzanilla. The town took a good hit, but they are also cleaning up and rebuilding. He showed good judgement getting out when he did.
The LOW is mostly stationary

Low forming S.W. of P.R...

Quoting 184. NatureIsle:


Erika's has already been unofficially retired in Dominica... I trust that the NHC And the World meteorological organization (WMO) will do the same.


It's really up to Dominica to make the petition to the WMO. The NHC has nothing to do with retiring names. I don't see any reason why a request for retirement from Dominica wouldn't be honored.
Quoting 182. HurricaneChaz:

As a slight diversion, and speaking to the yet to be explained static build up in planes, I'm reminded of a story of a janitor who solved the billion dollar problem of preventing the B-1 bomber wings from tearing off along the fusalage during high G turns. The B -1 was about to be scrapped. The janitor told R&D staff to drill 1" holes every 6" along each wing at the fusalage. This worked. When brought to the President to receive a commendation, he was asked how an uneducated janitor could solve such a problem. He said being a janitor 30 years, he'd never seen TP tear off where the holes are. Never under-estimate anyone's powers of observation.
I'm assuming that this story is a joke, right?
Upper trough in the Caribbean is one to watch. Low to moderate trade winds according to the NHC moving East with expected continued convection. Already approaching blob status.
Quoting 176. PlazaRed:

I saw on the Spanish news tonight a video of a very large gravel train derailed in Texas by floods.
I have no more information then this but things looked bad.
If it was the Union Pacific train (yellow engines lying on their sides), that happened several days ago. What flooding there was is over, at least for now.
Quoting 168. tampabaymatt:



just updated


*clap clap clap*

WOO HOO!!! 3-4 inches of rain!
The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they said, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early'
Quoting 167. VAbeachhurricanes:



Cmon Sar that's not true I live north of 31N :p You're probably thinking of what they talk about in their "tropical weather discussions".
I only know what I read in Wikipedia. As usual, I got my direction reversed. I should never post when I'm tired. :-)

"The National Hurricane Center (NHC), located at Florida International University in University Park, unincorporated Miami-Dade County, Florida,[1][2] is the division of the United States' National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific ocean and the 31st parallel north in the northern Atlantic ocean."
Quoting 193. hydrus:

Low forming S.W. of P.R...


Yeap, I can feel it something is out there is been pouring out here, I
Windy, rainy, and cold here. 55 degrees-wind-11 gust 18 mph-.25 inch per hour..sign of things to come.

Quoting 199. Patrap:

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they said, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early'

Been there....I would sail the Atlantic in a storm rather than the Great Lakes anyday...Got beat up bad a few times..snapped two, one and a half inch cables, one on Ontario, the other on Superior...Almost lost a $70,000 towing hawser on Huron..That is in 1985 bucks.
Quoting 195. sar2401:

I'm assuming that this story is a joke, right?
It was a joke. Apologies for the inconvenience. Will stay on topic.
Quoting 172. KuCommando:




I think you're saying the planes build up static electricity while flying w/ no way to discharge.

I remember reading about Navy ships coming back stateside and the hull needed a degaussing....somewhat analogous I suppose
Degaussing of naval vessels is done by applying an electrical field to the ship's hull to create a new magnetic field equal and opposite to the known magnetic field of the ship. It was supposed to help protect against the ship setting off magnetic mines. This was developed by the British in WWII, and consisted of a thick copper cable that was installed on the outside of the hull so the right current could be run through it. Unfortunately for us, the Germans figured this out and developed detonators based on the change in magnetic field rather than just the effect of the field as a steel ship passed a mine. The degaussing cable and associated generators was a huge weight for a smaller ship like a destroyer to carry, so "deperming" ships and facilities were developed to reset the ship's magnetic "signature" when they are assigned to a different part of the world in terms of magnetic fields compared to where they were built.

Degaussing and deperming are still done today, but mostly to reduce the ship's magnetic signature to aircraft using a MAD (Magnetic Anomaly Detector) stinger in the tail. Major powers have developed mines that aren't dependent on magnetic signatures for detonation, but minor powers like North Korea still have thousands of primitive magnetic mines, so degaussing is still useful in some circumstances. I had to learn about the Earth's magnetic signature in order to pass my amateur radio license test. I thought it would be really boring, but it turned out to be very interesting. Magnetism is pretty powerful stuff.
Quoting 206. HurricaneChaz:

It was a joke. Apologies for the inconvenience. Will stay on topic.
It's OK, but a smiley face helps. I never know what people believe after reading some of the things on Facebook my fiance has shown me. :-)
Quoting 203. hydrus:

Windy, rainy, and cold here. 55 degrees-wind-11 gust 18 mph-.25 inch per hour..sign of things to come.


Geez. Still nothing here. My earlier heavy mist stopped after about five minutes, and it wasn't enough to hit the rain gauge. It's still breezy here too, with 18 mph gusts, but only an occasional spit of rain. This is really depressing.
Not weather related but I really do want a Chicago style deep dish pizza and it really does fit the mood on this cool crisp fall day.
Quoting 180. HurriHistory:



Whats this I see? A tropical cyclone in the sw Caribbean? Maybe it's not really over yet.
A tropical cyclone being predicted by the GFS 16 days from now? That's never happened before. :-)
Quoting 179. Envoirment:

94A:



HWRF:



GFS:



Euro:



The Euro/GFS are in better agreement with the track and both have it landfalling in almost the same location - in the vicinity of Al Mukalla. Will be keeping an eye on this over the next few days or so. Hopefully it won't strengthen more than forecast.
Looks like the GFS and ECMWF have a disagreement on intensity but track agreement is pretty good. I wonder what the record is for deepest storm is in the Indian Ocean?
Quoting 209. sar2401:

Geez. Still nothing here. My earlier heavy mist stopped after about five minutes, and it wasn't enough to hit the rain gauge. It's still breezy here too, with 18 mph gusts, but only an occasional spit of rain. This is really depressing.


It's rough for you in your dry slot, your Charlie Brown and the rain is Lucy. You always get so close.
Hi folks with a very late good night hello from Germany. Thanks to Bob Henson and all the others in here for the good coverage of Patricia and its aftermaths as I was away in Cologne this weekend for some partying ;-)

Weather at my place near Frankfurt is still wayyyy too dry - but apart from this the calm autumn weather with aflamed trees and shrubs is nice to watch.

Would like to post at least a few pics of low "Wymar" off the British Isles as it is beautiful. And it has a warm core due to the warm air wrapped into its center on its eastern side from the south (if I get this right). But it's not a tropical system (is it a hybrid system?). Wymar is generating huge waves for the western coasts of Europe but isn't supposed to make landfall. So just some nice eye candy.


Current air mass.


Latest visual.


Latest phase diagram according to GFS. (Wow the storm came a long way from western Canada ...)


GFS map showing the warm core.


Surface analysis for Oct 27.

Have a nice evening and night everyone! I'm glad to learn that the flooding in southern US wasn't that nightmarish.
Quoting 166. Zivipotty:



I don't think this is the reason. For example, Vince (2005) and Grace (2009) formed north from 31N, Grace also well north from 35N. Link Link But these storm formed a bit west (Grace more west) than the actual cyclone, and they were stronger too.
Yes, I got the area of responsibility wrong. NRT's explanation that the low was baroclinic and attached to a front is probably correct. It's much like the low that has been moving up from Texas to now in Louisiana. The pressure, at 1001 mb, is low enough for a TS, and it's sure been windy enough, but it's also baroclinic and firmly attached to a front. Many people here have been waiting with baited breath for the storm to be declared at least an invest, but the NHC is never going to do that.
Quoting 213. DeepSeaRising:



It's rough for you in your dry slot, your Charlie Brown and the rain is Lucy. You always get so close.
It's sure been that way today. I'm on the wet side of 1001 mb low and haven't been able to scratch up even 0.01" so far. The storm hasn't produced much rain in the entire state, although Tuscaloosa set a new daily record at 0.90" compared to the 1981 record of 0.89". Troy is 50 miles west of me and the closest official station. Even they have had 0.39" of rain. The dry air intrusion in eastern Alabama has been very persistent all day, weakening what little has come my way and destroying most of the showers. As I've said many times, never underestimate the effects of dry air, particularly mid-level dry air. Models don't seem to do well estimating the effects of dry air on a system, but I've been able to sit here all day and see it with the Swiss cheese effect on the rain coming up from Florida.
Quoting 215. sar2401:

Yes, I got the area of responsibility wrong. NRT's explanation that the low was baroclinic and attached to a front is probably correct. It's much like the low that has been moving up from Texas to now in Louisiana. The pressure, at 1001 mb, is low enough for a TS, and it's sure been windy enough, but it's also baroclinic and firmly attached to a front. Many people here have been waiting with baited breath for the storm to be declared at least an invest, but the NHC is never going to do that.


Got down as low as 994mb at one point. I knew they'd never do that, my argument was, that if tropical storm conditions are occurring then maybe a more suitable warning may be needed. But there was plenty warning in advance and they did issue lots of warnings. Pretty intense system. Glad all ended fairly well and areas got much needed rains.
Up to the minute with Patrap and others around New Orleans last night was very cool as tropical storm conditions affected Southeast Louisiana.
Buoy 42360 has been pinging 12-13 feet at 10-11 seconds out of the west since early morning. It takes about 26-30 hours to arrive on the west coast of Fl. from that location.
A nice incoming tide will also help the arrival tomorrow midday.
This will translate chest to head high swell by the time it traverses our continental shelf of 150 plus brutal miles.
Should last all day Wed too.
The only negative is pesky local winds out of the south.

If anyone cares. :)

Link
Quoting 206. HurricaneChaz:

It was a joke. Apologies for the inconvenience. Will stay on topic.


Well, I laughed, so thanks.
Quoting 212. sar2401:

Looks like the GFS and ECMWF have a disagreement on intensity but track agreement is pretty good. I wonder what the record is for deepest storm is in the Indian Ocean?

Cyclone gonu was the strongest storm in the north indian ocean,with 920 mbars and 165 mph.
Quoting 172. KuCommando:




I think you're saying the planes build up static electricity while flying w/ no way to discharge.

I remember reading about Navy ships coming back stateside and the hull needed a degaussing....somewhat analogous I suppose


I was also having trouble deciphering Viso's thoughts. Aircraft have static wicks (wires) which discharge electrical build ups as the aircraft flies.
when was the last time a storm did this?

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015

Olaf has become less organized over the past several hours. The
associated convection has decreased and has been displaced
northeast of the center by 25 kt of vertical wind shear. In
addition, the low-level circulation has become elongated from
northeast to southwest. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are 45 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to that value.

A combination of continuing shear, cool sea surface temperatures,
and dry air entrainment should keep Olaf on a weakening trend. The
cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24
hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours, and both
of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast if new
convection does not form near the center. The new forecast is an
update of the previous CPHC forecast.

The initial motion is 060/16. Olaf is currently being steered by
a strong deep-layer trough to the north of the cyclone. This
trough is forecast to move quickly eastward, with a low-level ridge
building in its wake to the north of Olaf. As Olaf weakens and
becomes a shallow system, this ridge should become the dominant
steering mechanism and cause the cyclone to turn southward and
eventually southwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 26.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 27.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 26.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 24.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED



a storm gos in the C PAC then comes back too E PAC i think the ACE is vary high


the storm has 26.3275 i wounder if it can last too a point too where it can hit 30.0
Quoting 157. Gaara:



I'm sure it's different when flying into smaller airports, but on every flight I've taken in the last 5 years, I've known EXACTLY what aircraft each leg of the trip would be, and have planned accordingly.
Heh. They can list it but I won't know how noisy it will be. I like to be over the wings so I'm sort of doomed to be near the engines. All I know now is you fly you're squished. I'm thin and on my last flight I couldn't even bend to get anything out of my computer case at my feet.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

It's sure been that way today. I'm on the wet side of 1001 mb low and haven't been able to scratch up even 0.01" so far. The storm hasn't produced much rain in the entire state, although Tuscaloosa set a new daily record at 0.90" compared to the 1981 record of 0.89". Troy is 50 miles west of me and the closest official station. Even they have had 0.39" of rain. The dry air intrusion in eastern Alabama has been very persistent all day, weakening what little has come my way and destroying most of the showers. As I've said many times, never underestimate the effects of dry air, particularly mid-level dry air. Models don't seem to do well estimating the effects of dry air on a system, but I've been able to sit here all day and see it with the Swiss cheese effect on the rain coming up from Florida.


Yeah, mid level dry air is evil, it doesn't take much of it to ruin a rain parade, and it's the hardest to get rid of. It can only take a relatively thin layer of mid level dry air which can "hide" within an overall moist air mass to ruin an expected rain event. Mid level dry air tends to choke off rising motion as evaporative cooling causes stability and sinking air in the layer.

The only exception to that rule is when very strong low level convergence encounters the mid level dry air and cooling and is strong enough to break the capping inversion and then you can have severe weather, though this obviously isn't one of those deals. Maybe you'll have better luck tomorrow.
Quoting 217. DeepSeaRising:



Got down as low as 994mb at one point. I knew they'd never do that, my argument was, that if tropical storm conditions are occurring then maybe a more suitable warning may be needed. But there was plenty warning in advance and they did issue lots of warnings. Pretty intense system. Glad all ended fairly well and areas got much needed rains.
Tropical storm conditions would be any time the wind was a sustained 39 mph or more. A gale wind is exactly the same. The NWS issued gale warnings for those few non-coastal areas that needed them. We get gale winds occasionally from continental lows, and sometimes for non-tropical lows in the Gulf. Issuing some kind of special warning for a system which is generally well covered by existing warnings just muddles things up even further. People who were paying attention seemed to know what was happening. Those that weren't will not be helped no matter what kind of warning is issued.
Quoting 226. Jedkins01:



Yeah, mid level dry air is evil, it doesn't take much of it to ruin a rain parade, and it's the hardest to get rid of. It can only take a relatively thin layer of mid level dry air which can "hide" within an overall moist air mass to ruin an expected rain event. Mid level dry air tends to choke off rising motion as evaporative cooling causes stability and sinking air in the layer.

The only exception to that rule is when very strong low level convergence encounters the mid level dry air and cooling and is strong enough to break the capping inversion and then you can have severe weather, though this obviously isn't one of those deals. Maybe you'll have better luck tomorrow.
Yes indeed. There's another patch of darker green approaching now, so maybe it will have enough moisture to overcome the dry air. It's really kind of amazing to watch a vertical layer mid-level dry air maybe 5000 feet thick destroy everything from my showers to a hurricane. I think it's an underrated player in storm formation and development.
Quoting 220. BahaHurican:




Quite a void along Patricia's path!
Quoting 196. DeepSeaRising:

Upper trough in the Caribbean is one to watch. Low to moderate trade winds according to the NHC moving East with expected continued convection. Already approaching blob status.

Got to give you a shout out DSR you have made some really great calls this season.
As Hydrus pointed out earlier, looks like some surface action going on with the convection south of PR. Low may be trying to form. Will be interesting to see if that convection continues to wane or regrows overnight.
Quoting 218. DeepSeaRising:

Up to the minute with Patrap and others around New Orleans last night was very cool as tropical storm conditions affected Southeast Louisiana.

You guys and gals were all in the thick of it. It was like watchin a thriller movie. Glad I had a front row seat!
Quoting 232. Wolfberry:


You guys and gals were all in the thick of it. It was like watchin a thriller movie. Glad I had a front row seat!


Was good fun and not too severe. We need more systems like that after the beating we took in the early and mid 2000's. Or ones like Arthur. Looks good and is exciting but doesn't pack the punch. It's easy to forget how bad a major can be for the mainland. Andrew, Wilma, Sandy, Katrina, George, Rita, Irene, etc; could go another decade or two and be fine not seeing a repeat of any of those.
Quoting 198. 62901IL:



*clap clap clap*

WOO HOO!!! 3-4 inches of rain!


Any chance of supercells with this one?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 27 2015
==========================

Bay Of Bengal/Andaman Sea
==================
The low pressure area over southwestern Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast persists.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================
24 HRS: NIL
24-48 HRS: NIL
48-72 HRS: LOW

Arabian Sea
===========
The low pressure area over southeastern and adjoining southwestern Arabian Sea persists and is now well marked.

The system is forecast to concentrate into a depression in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================
24 HRS: LOW
24-48 HRS: MODERATE
48-72 HRS: HIGH
Quoting 183. nrtiwlnvragn:


As far as that storm, surface charts showed it attached to a front.


Yes, the first part of the system (16-17 October) is questionable. The analysis indeed show fronts, but the core of the cyclone seems detached on the satellite/radar images, and the ASCAT pass also don't show this frontal structure east of the cyclone. Link (The sharp low level cloud line of the cold front west of the cyclone is visible on the left corner of this image: Link )

The second part (21-22 October) however looks really tropical. According to the analysis, the fronts dissipated by 00 UTC 21 October, and the cyclone produced pulsating (but sustained) convection over the next 2 days. Link Link
was just reading the NASA earthquake report...kinda scary for the folks out in LA huh.....clipped this headline.........................There is a 99.9 percent chance of a magnitude-5 or greater earthquake striking within three years in the greater Los Angeles area, where a similar sized temblor caused more the $12 million in damage last year, according to a study by NASA and university researchers.
Good morning and afternoon, all. We're still working on drying out, though it looks like next weekend will bring more. Feast or famine. They did lift out burn ban in Louisiana after almost 7 inches of rain.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, chili onion oatmeal, Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. E
Good morning. Ocean in motion:

NASA's EPIC camera captures three developing tropical lows in Indian Ocean
Last Updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 - 09:39


Saved current loop.



Quoting 212. sar2401:

Looks like the GFS and ECMWF have a disagreement on intensity but track agreement is pretty good. I wonder what the record is for deepest storm is in the Indian Ocean?


The ECMWF brings it down to 951 mb in its latest run - so whilst not as strong as the GFS/HWRF, it still shows a potent category 3 storm.

The strongest storm by winds in the northern Indian Ocean is Cyclone Gonu with 165 mph 1-minute sustained winds, but there are a few that are more intense by pressure, the strongest being the 1999 Odisha cyclone which had a pressure of 912 mb and went on to kill 10,000 people and do billions in damage.*

The latest GFS run has the storm strengthening less than previously and more in line with the ECMWF as a category 3. Although the HWRF is showing a stronger system.

94A:



It should be slow to organise over the next day or two, then should start organising faster in a few days time. Some of the models (GFS/HWRF) show potential rapid intensification, whilst the ECMFW shows more gradual intensification.

*Note there have been many stronger systems in terms of pressure in the Southern Indian Ocean with pressures of 910 mb and lower, the strongest being 895 mb for Cyclone Gafilo in 2004.
Extremely large tides on tap this morning for the Charleston/Savannah forecast area. On track to be one of the top 4 biggest tides ever recorded for Savannah...

... Extremely high tides to occur with the morning high tide...

A coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for all coastal counties
of the Charleston forecast area of responsibility through 10 am.
Significant inundation of saltwater in and near low lying coastal
areas will lead to numerous Road closures... as well as flooding of
properties.

Significant flooding will occur in downtown Charleston... and
access routes from the barrier islands to the Mainland from
kiawah... Seabrook... edisto and fripp could become cut off.


Highway 80 between Tybee Island Savannah will become inundated and
will close.


High tide will occur around 830 to 930 am this morning... although
salt water flooding will occur as much as 90 minutes before and
after these times.

Tide levels are forecast to peak around 8.2 to 8.4 feet mean lower
low water in Charleston... and between 10.5 and 10.8 feet mean
lower low water at fort Pulaski near Savannah. These levels will
be in the top 6 to 8 high tides on record at Charleston... and in
the top 2 to 4 high tides at fort Pulaski.

Here are the highest 10 tides on record at Charleston and fort
Pulaski...

Charleston /records go back to 1921/...

1. 12.56 ft MLLW on September 21 1989 /Hugo/
2. 10.27 ft MLLW on August 11 1940
3. 8.84 ft MLLW on January 1 1987
4. 8.67 ft MLLW on September 4 1979
4. 8.67 ft MLLW on may 28 1934
6. 8.57 ft MLLW on November 2 1947
7. 8.29 ft MLLW on October 3 2015
8. 8.17 ft MLLW on October 15 1947
8. 8.17 ft MLLW on September 29 1959
10. 8.10 ft MLLW on June 23 2009

Fort Pulaski /records go back to 1935/...

1. 10.87 ft MLLW on October 15 1947
2. 10.47 ft MLLW on August 11 1940
3. 10.27 ft MLLW on December 3 1971
4. 10.23 ft MLLW on februar7 7 1993
5. 10.07 ft MLLW on June 24 2009
6. 9.96 ft MLLW on September 17 2001
7. 9.94 ft MLLW on October 3 2015
8. 9.89 ft MLLW on may 8 2012
9. 9.88 ft MLLW on January 30 2010
10. 9.84 ft MLLW on November 13 1981


I live off of Highway 80 just inland from Tybee Island- should be an interesting commute this morning...
Damage to farms and crops hampers Typhoon Koppu recovery in Philippines
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Mon, 26 Oct 2015 13:21 GMT
BANGKOK, Oct 26 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Authorities and aid workers in the Philippines are assessing losses and providing assistance for survivors of Typhoon Koppu, which killed 58 people and caused 8.6 billion pesos ($185 million) of damage to farms and fisheries.
Typhoon Koppu brought strong winds and days of heavy rain last week to seven regions on the country's main island Luzon, affecting 2.7 million, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported on Monday.
It said about 300 villages remain flooded, and 40 sections of road and five bridges are unpassable due to flooding and landslides. All communications lines are open, but some towns are without electricity, it said.
...

Deaths in Aegean likely to rise as migrants grow desperate- migration expert
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Mon, 26 Oct 2015 17:39 GMT

Calais migrants face grim winter in "the jungle"
Source: Reuters - Tue, 27 Oct 2015 09:57 GMT
el nino yr = wave machines in the nw pac have started early
Aussie's ENSO update came out this morning and the model operated by the Aussie's now peaks this El-Nino near 3C for Nino 3.4. Peak looks to happen sometime in early December before falling back to 1.70C come March.

As for those GA/SC tides.. The moon is full, King tides are upon them and the gulf stream current has gone weak in that area.

Note the loop current eddie broke free in the Gulf of Mexico. Looks like near where that ULL/Patricia remains just hung out at.

Good Morning. The current look for Conus and forecast for today:


76 early this morning in Orlando in Late October is unheard of. Fall really has been absent here across Central and South Florida. It's also very humid too very similar to a summer morning here in Orlando.

Quoting 247. StormTrackerScott:

Aussie's ENSO update came out this morning and the model operated by the Aussie's now peaks this El-Nino near 3C for Nino 3.4. Peak looks to happen sometime in early December before falling back to 1.70C come March.>

I don't know about that high. ESPI just peak again around 2.38. It's down to 1.91 now.


And welcome back..blog seemed to miss you:)
What are the effects of a Super Modoki Nino, come winter and early spring, in regards to the forecasted rain for California and the Southern U.S.? Nino 3.4 is really warming and 1.2 sure looks to be cooling come winter, this will not be a 97/98 Super Nino.
Quoting 252. Skyepony:


I don't know about that high. ESPI just peak again around 2.38. It's down to 1.91 now.


And welcome back..blog seemed to miss you:)


I was in the Bahamas for a week. Glad to be back though. Also with regards to ENSO I don't know about 3C but I can see us matching the 2.8C value set for Nino 3.4 in 1997 or the 2.7C value in 1982.
In terms of the Aussie Enso forecast, we have to carefully watch what happens with it in the March to June time frame as noted below. Waning El Ninos historically bring the most number of tornado outbreaks in the Spring; part of that function is related to the lower trajectory Gulf lows streaming warm moisture up into the mid-section of the lower Conus (more than usual as the result of the low trajectories) as normal late-winter/early-spring cold fronts from the Rockies push across the plains. We also often get that slingshot effect after a strong El Nino with a quick transition to La Nina conditions come the Atlantic season; another issue to watch in 2016 as to whether we stay in Neutral territory for the Fall of move into a La Nina peak period.

Issued on 27 October 2015 

A strong El Niño in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are dominating the climate of countries that border the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the central tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to warm, but at a markedly slower pace than earlier this year. All NINO indices have now been above +1 °C for 11 consecutive weeks, equalling the previous record. Recent bursts of westerly winds in the tropics means some further warming remains possible. All models indicate that the strong El Niño is likely to persist until the end of the year, before a marked decline during the first quarter of 2016.


I was also in S FL as well and I was shocked @ just how high the tides were in South Beach. Never seen the sea level that high without a Tropical system around. No matter what side of the debate you are on it does appear tides are beginning to rise @ a faster rate.
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Moisture laden fall storm with rain and gusty winds on tap.

A low pressure area over Louisiana containing moisture from the remnants of hurricane Patricia is starting to move northward towards the Great Lakes. This low is expected to intensify into a fairly strong fall storm as it reaches the Great Lakes, bringing a significant rainfall along with strong and gusty winds over the next couple of days.

A large shield of rain associated with this storm is forecast to spread into Southwestern Ontario tonight and reach the Golden Horseshoe area by Wednesday morning. The rain will continue to March steadily into Central and Eastern Ontario through the day on Wednesday. The rain will likely become heavy at times as the low pressure area deepens. Latest indications continue to suggest 25 to 40 mm of rain in most areas. Locally higher amounts of 40 to 50 mm are possible, especially near lakes Erie and Ontario.

A clap or two of thunder is quite possible over a few locales, along with rainfall approaching Environment Canada's rainfall warning criterion of 50 mm within 24 hours.

Additionally, strong and gusty southwesterly winds are forecast to develop on Wednesday over Southwestern Ontario then on Wednesday night over remaining parts of Southern Ontario. Wind gusts to 70 km/h are likely in most areas. Even stronger winds are quite possible near the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, where wind gusts may approach the warning threshold of 90 km/h.

These winds may be strong enough to cause some tree damage and local power outages, especially in areas where trees remain in partial to full leaf.

The rain and strong winds will end by Friday as the fall storm moves away into Northern Quebec.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Bikini islanders seek US refuge as sea levels threaten homes
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News, 1 hour ago
About 1,000 Bikini islanders have applied to relocate to the United States as rising seas threaten their adopted home.
The residents were moved from their Pacific atoll as result of atomic bomb tests in the 1940s.
But their new home, on another of the Marshall Islands, is struggling against huge tides and increasing storms.
The islanders have now asked Washington to change the terms of a trust fund to allow them settle in the US. ...
257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:21 AM EDT on October 27, 2015

No surprise given the position of the mid-level jet right over the Great Lakes and Toronto region today:


260. MrHul
Quoting 256. StormTrackerScott:

I was also in S FL as well and I was shocked @ just how high the tides were in South Beach. Never seen the sea level that high without a Tropical system around. No matter what side of the debate you are on it does appear tides are beginning to rise @ a faster rate.

Here on Tybee Island, we have had the road closed both last month and this for high tides. Last month we had a two week period where the tides covered part of the road every day, even during the middle of the moon cycle.
261. MahFL
Quoting 258. barbamz:

Bikini islanders seek US refuge as sea levels threaten homes
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News, 1 hour ago
About 1,000 Bikini islanders have applied to relocate to the United States as rising seas threaten their adopted home.
The residents were moved from their Pacific atoll as result of atomic bomb tests in the 1940s.
But their new home, on another of the Marshall Islands, is struggling against huge tides and increasing storms.
The islanders have now asked Washington to change the terms of a trust fund to allow them settle in the US. ...



Seems stupid they were allowed to build homes that are flooded during King Tides.
As quick as Patricia dissipated after hitting the mountains in Mexico, pretty amazing that a lot of the moisture from the remnants fed the low and are now slowly creeping into Canada after wrecking havoc in Texas and other parts of the US; looks like Patricia had a tourist visa and direct flight to Canada.................................
Central Great Lakes sector loop
264. MahFL
Who ever was doing the Charleston tide gauge forecast needs to be fired, it's 1.62 feet above forecast.
265. NNYer
Quoting 261. MahFL:



Seems stupid they were allowed to build homes that are flooded during King Tides.


Did you read the article?
Quoting 261. MahFL:



Seems stupid they were allowed to build homes that are flooded during King Tides.
Maybe. But it seems infinitely stupider to a) keep doing something that we know is pumping four million metric tons of excess, heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere every hour of every day, while b) pretending that doing so will have no ill side effects.

Dozens of coastal cities and hundreds of millions of people will be displaced over the coming decades because of our collective ignorance, greed, and stupidity. Who will be blamed then? The people who long ago founded Miami and Mumbai and Tokyo? The people who have moved to those cities over the years? Or, just maybe, the fossil fuel companies--and the politicians they've purchased--who did everything in their power to delay and forestall any mitigation action?
267. MahFL
Quoting 265. NNYer:



Did you read the article?


Yes, the article does not say how much higher the tide was or the local topography, was the tide 1 inch higher, six inches, a foot ? is the built up area flat, on a slope, what percentage of houses were affected ? It's mostly an article on global warming with little scientific merit.
Quoting 251. StormTrackerScott:

76 early this morning in Orlando in Late October is unheard of. Fall really has been absent here across Central and South Florida. It's also very humid too very similar to a summer morning here in Orlando.




Humidity has been low and it has been very pleasant for the last month in the Tampa area. I'd say it is fall weather.
269. MahFL
This is from the March 2014 flooding on Kili :

"The tide and storm has caused some damage to several homes."

Some of the homes are built right on the water and are not on stilts.

My point is most of these articles try to shed the worst light on a situation and do not give an objective report of what occurred, and how often it occurs.

Quoting 261. MahFL:



Seems stupid they were allowed to build homes that are flooded during King Tides.
Seems stupid that people continue to build on known faults that produce massive earthquakes....but they do, and on a massive scale..
Quoting 260. MrHul:


Here on Tybee Island, we have had the road closed both last month and this for high tides. Last month we had a two week period where the tides covered part of the road every day, even during the middle of the moon cycle.
It will happen more often, and with higher tides.
272. MahFL
Quoting 270. hydrus:

Seems stupid that people continue to build on known faults that produce massive earthquakes....but they do, and on a massive scale..


King Tides though occur more often than massive earthquakes, and tides are predictable.
Quoting 269. MahFL:

This is from the March 2014 flooding on Kili :

"The tide and storm has caused some damage to several homes."

Some of the homes are built right on the water and are not on stilts.

My point is most of these articles try to shed the worst light on a situation and do not give an objective report of what occurred, and how often it occurs.


The objective should be the facts and the data, not shining the light. Oceans and seas will rise much faster. It is a fact, and it is happening now...
Quoting 261. MahFL:



Seems stupid they were allowed to build homes that are flooded during King Tides.


Yeah and the stupid salt intrusion into the water supply. If only they just didn't have to drink water and use it to grow things.
Lots of moisture coming into Western Florida Today. Hopefully it'll get into the everglades. There is still a bit of a drought there.
Quoting 272. MahFL:



King Tides though occur more often than massive earthquakes, and tides are predictable.
Quoting 272. MahFL:



King Tides though occur more often than massive earthquakes, and tides are predictable.
There have been steps taken to keep people from building in areas where tides can destroy homes and buildings. I believe that it should be stopped. Tides are predictable, but weather not as much. Anyone making a home on the coast should know this. They get hit and lose there home, the decision to build was not a sound one.
Quoting 240. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. We're still working on drying out, though it looks like next weekend will bring more. Feast or famine. They did lift out burn ban in Louisiana after almost 7 inches of rain.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, chili onion oatmeal, Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. E


I just need my 3D food grade printer. Yum.
Quoting 262. weathermanwannabe:

As quick as Patricia dissipated after hitting the mountains in Mexico, pretty amazing that a lot of the moisture from the remnants fed the low and are now slowly creeping into Canada after wrecking havoc in Texas and other parts of the US; looks like Patricia had a tourist visa and direct flight to Canada.................................
Central Great Lakes sector loop
Even though the best precipitation is in Tennessee, the low is still back down in Louisiana, about to move into Mississippi. The low has been steadily filling as it moves further inland, up to 1006 mb now compared to 1000 mb yesterday at the same time. It's been breezy here overnight, with winds of 10 mph, with 20 mph gusts. The winds are starting to decrease as the low fills.

I leaped out of bed this morning to see what was in the rain gauge. As usual, it was nothing. I've had no measurable rain over the last three days while this low was to the west of me. Other parts of Alabama have had rain. Tuscaloosa and Anniston both set daily records with about an inch of rain. Troy, 50 miles west of me, had an inch of rain. None of the CoCoRAHS stations near me reported any rain either, so I know it's not just something wrong with my extremely deluxe rain gauge. The continuing invasion of dry air in SE Alabama and south Georgia is clearly seen on radar, and has been since yesterday morning. It's a good example of how a forecast that covers a large area can be right while small scale features can disrupt the forecast for an area like mine. BMX continues to advertise an 80% chance of rain today. If I get any rain today I'm going to hightail it across the bridge to Georgia and buy some lottery tickets. :-)



Quoting 225. cynvision:

Heh. They can list it but I won't know how noisy it will be. I like to be over the wings so I'm sort of doomed to be near the engines. All I know now is you fly you're squished. I'm thin and on my last flight I couldn't even bend to get anything out of my computer case at my feet.


I'm 6'4 and somewhat overweight but aisle seats are reasonably comfortable for me and I don't feel cramped on passenger jets. The pilot of the puddle jumper to Long Island from Nassau though always looks at me and figures the most central location for me on his small plane, a 7 seat Cessna.

When ‘nuisance flooding’ is part of a city’s vocabulary, there’s a problem

Conferences about climate change tend to focus on atmospheric molecules and energy density, but an interestingly different conversation this past weekend in Hampton centered on building codes and cigarettes.

Cigarettes? I’ll get to that in a minute.

The conference was called Rising Tides 2015, and it tried to sidestep the political differences that make climate discussions so contentious by concentrating on high-water problems in coastal cities throughout the country. You wouldn’t believe how many times I heard somebody say “flooding doesn’t care whether you’re Republican or Democrat.”


Link
Quoting 253. NativeSun:

What are the effects of a Super Modoki Nino, come winter and early spring, in regards to the forecasted rain for California and the Southern U.S.? Nino 3.4 is really warming and 1.2 sure looks to be cooling come winter, this will not be a 97/98 Super Nino.


Modoki Ninos tend to be very ugly for the Eastern U.S, cold with arctic outbreaks and stormy with an unclear precipitation signal. This is very different from the more common Nino signature in the East, warm and wet. If this one turns into a Modoki I'm ordering another cord of firewood here in DC metro.
Might be off topic, but is it too late for a Cape Verde system to form? Looks to me like there is at least an invest in that area...
Quoting 251. StormTrackerScott:

76 early this morning in Orlando in Late October is unheard of. Fall really has been absent here across Central and South Florida. It's also very humid too very similar to a summer morning here in Orlando.


could this super el nino be capable of making this warmer for us in the deep south instead of the cooler weather that we are expecting to have?
Quoting 268. Hurricanes101:



Humidity has been low and it has been very pleasant for the last month in the Tampa area. I'd say it is fall weather.
it has been quite the opposite here in south florida,yes the recent windy weather has made things bearable somewhat but still humid and warm
Quoting 276. hydrus:

There have been steps taken to keep people from building in areas where tides can destroy homes and buildings. I believe that it should be stopped. Tides are predictable, but weather not as much. Anyone making a home on the coast should know this. They get hit and lose there home, the decision to build was not a sound one.


There is a large predictable component of tides and we know when king and spring tides will happen. Departures from either weather or ocean circulation anomalies are not long term predictable. The high tides this September/October in Florida and along the East Coast appear due to a temporary relaxation of the Gulf Stream which caused a rapid basic state sea level rise all along the Eastern Seaboard. This was not predicted prior to September. It could happen again in the future for longer and be worse.

I visit beaches. I'd never live there.
DOC..have you seen this climate change article?.......................................Link
Quoting 276. hydrus:

There have been steps taken to keep people from building in areas where tides can destroy homes and buildings. I believe that it should be stopped. Tides are predictable, but weather not as much. Anyone making a home on the coast should know this. They get hit and lose there home, the decision to build was not a sound one.


...And everyone who hears these words of mine and does not do them will be like a foolish man who built his house on the sand...
Matthew 7:24-27
Quoting 251. StormTrackerScott:

76 early this morning in Orlando in Late October is unheard of. Fall really has been absent here across Central and South Florida. It's also very humid too very similar to a summer morning here in Orlando.




October 1984 in Tallahassee had no cold frontal passages at all and averaged about 6F above normal. A strong front did cross Sept 30, producing record cold (39F) Oct 2, but the rest of the month was 80s and 60s all month to the very end. It did seem like late summer would never ever end.

My garden froze the second week in November.
We already see coastal flooding in Miami and other locations that now will need to spend Billions in order to maintain their coastal lifestyles and strive to reduce their insurance costs. And then (for the deny'ers that did not get the memo from their overlords that the thinking has changed) there is this from on high:

http://www.oilandgasclimateinitiative.com/news/oi l-and-gas-ceos-jointly-declare-action-on-climate-c hange/

Quoting 286. georgevandenberghe:



There is a large predictable component of tides and we know when king and spring tides will happen. Departures from either weather or ocean circulation anomalies are not long term predictable. The high tides this September/October in Florida and along the East Coast appear due to a temporary relaxation of the Gulf Stream which caused a rapid basic state sea level rise all along the Eastern Seaboard. This was not predicted prior to September. It could happen again in the future for longer and be worse.

I visit beaches. I'd never live there.

Gulf Stream has changed in several ways over the years. We actually would have to monitor it when we were sailing the area. If we hit an eddy, it would slow us down as much as 8 kts, which can throw off schedules, and keep us from avoiding potential storms, and there were many.
Quoting 287. LargoFl:

DOC..have you seen this climate change article?.......................................Link
don't know if that link worked but its an article on Nature.com and GW, and it said daily temps in an area of the middle east could soar to 170 degree's,and humans cannot live in those temps.. by 2100
Quoting 288. ILwthrfan:



...And everyone who hears these words of mine and does not do them will be like a foolish man who built his house on the sand...
Matthew 7:24-27



Behold , I tell you a mystery. We shall not all sleep, but we shall all be changed... Corinthians 15:51
Quoting 287. LargoFl:

DOC..have you seen this climate change article?.......................................Link



dont get him started lol he do a blog about it



i like it more when this blog is on topic about the weather not GW
Quoting 292. LargoFl:

don't know if that link worked but its an article on Nature.com and GW, and it said daily temps in an area of the middle east could soar to 170 degree's,and humans cannot live in those temps.. by 2100
How were you able to read that article? The one at your link only shows a bare summary with a cost of $9.99 if I want to buy it.
Quoting 282. Loduck:

Might be off topic, but is it too late for a Cape Verde system to form? Looks to me like there is at least an invest in that area...
Certainly not off topic since this blog discusses tropical weather. Well, mostly. :-) No, it's not too late for a CV storm to form. It gets a lot more unlikely as we head into November, but it has happened. I'm seeing a lot of disorganized convection in the eastern Atlantic, but nothing that looks like it deserves to be an invest. Where are you seeing this?
Another no show rain event here. It's a broken record. Seriously though, it's one thing to get dry weather from a dry pattern, but it's another thing to get dry weather from a wet pattern. We have seriously had at least 6 events forecast in Tallahassee to bring widespread heavy rains of at least 2 inches since I started school in late August, but none of these events have been able to produce anything more than a quarter inch at best, and at times little to nothing.

The original forecast was 90% for yesterday and today with around 2 inches or so of rain for the event. We got about 0.02 yesterday and 0.01 today so far. Just atrocious. Drought continues to get worse here, some ponds and lakes are nearly completely dried up. I haven't recorded a 1 inch rain day since I moved back here for school on August 20th. The odds have been astoundingly against us.

Average year total is about 60 inches here, year to date is near only 30 inches, and most of that fell from the winter into Spring. Rainfall from May until now in the Tallahassee area has only been 10-12 inches at best. Shockingly drier than average.
yeah I know Taz..but I clipped this from yet another sorce the wall street hedge..and it has USA coastal cities in danger by 2100......snip..............According to a new climate map published recently, sea level rises threaten hundreds of U.S. cities, which risk being submerged by 2100.




These alarming findings, collected under the title “Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level”, were revealed on October 12 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study was conducted by experts from Climate Central in Princeton, N.J. and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
Quoting 283. knightwarrior41:

could this super el nino be capable of making this warmer for us in the deep south instead of the cooler weather that we are expecting to have?


It''s unlikely but not impossible. Though if it ends up warmer than average, it would likely be from being drier than average too. The main reason El Nino winters are cooler than average in FL is not due to a lot more arctic air, but due to more frequent frontal passages and a lot more cloudy days. Frequent fronts means more frequent cool spells following more frequent rain events. And more overcast days lowers high temps.

At the same time, while El Nino winters are cooler than average, usually they are not associated with major arctic air events and freezes, because the frontal passages come from frequent southern stream oriented low pressure systems, so while they'll still pull down cooler air, usually it's not sharply cold. Also the increase in moisture and clouds helps keep overnight lows a bit warmer, making freezes less likely during colder event.s

With that said, snow/freezing precip events in FL seem also less likely in FL during El Nino events since the lows are southern stream origin for the most part. Though you can't ever rule anything out, and extremely deep low like the 1993 super storm could easily bring cold enough air down for snow into Central Florida. It only didn't because it was March, though even being March, some sleet occurred all the way into Central FL with nights in the 30's. Though such events are rare of course, lol.
Quoting 297. Jedkins01:

Another no show rain event here. It's a broken record. Seriously though, it's one thing to get dry weather from a dry pattern, but it's another thing to get dry weather from a wet pattern. We have seriously had at least 6 events forecast in Tallahassee to bring widespread heavy rains of at least 2 inches since I started school in late August, but none of these events have been able to produce anything more than a quarter inch at best, and at times little to nothing.

The original forecast was 90% for yesterday and today with around 2 inches or so of rain for the event. We got about 0.02 yesterday and 0.01 today so far. Just atrocious. Drought continues to get worse here, some ponds and lakes are nearly completely dried up. I haven't recorded a 1 inch rain day since I moved back here for school on August 20th. The odds have been astoundingly against us.

Average year total is about 60 inches here, year to date is near only 30 inches, and most of that fell from the winter into Spring. Rainfall from May until now in the Tallahassee area has only been 10-12 inches at best. Shockingly drier than average.
Greetings Jed..Not all Nino events bring wet weather to Florida. 1970 through 1972 is an example of this. One of the worst droughts Florida ever had was during that time period.
i have noted it is march warmmer this season for the E coast and mid W last year i re call you guys where in the icy box


Quoting 296. sar2401:

Certainly not off topic since this blog discusses tropical weather. Well, mostly. :-) No, it's not too late for a CV storm to form. It gets a lot more unlikely as we head into November, but it has happened. I'm seeing a lot of disorganized convection in the eastern Atlantic, but nothing that looks like it deserves to be an invest. Where are you seeing this?
The area to the SW of CV... It is unorganized but I kinda thought that it had "that look" like something could possibly come from it?
Quoting 256. StormTrackerScott:

I was also in S FL as well and I was shocked @ just how high the tides were in South Beach. Never seen the sea level that high without a Tropical system around. No matter what side of the debate you are on it does appear tides are beginning to rise @ a faster rate.


There is NO debate, the Planet has warmed from us burning fossil fuels to run our Modern Society.

Quoting 301. Tazmanian:

i have noted it is march warmmer this season for the E coast and mid W last year i re call you guys where in the icy box





Unusual chill started in mid November in 2014 here in the East. It did not persist into December but caused me mid november problems with cool season things and Citrus which I normally don't have to worry about that early.
Greeenland is Melting away

NYT

This river is one of a network of thousands at the front line of climate change.

BY CORAL DAVENPORT, JOSH HANER, LARRY BUCHANAN AND DEREK WATKINS
ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET — The midnight sun still gleamed at 1 a.m. across the brilliant expanse of the Greenland ice sheet. Brandon Overstreet, a doctoral candidate in hydrology at the University of Wyoming, picked his way across the frozen landscape, clipped his climbing harness to an anchor in the ice and crept toward the edge of a river that rushed downstream toward an enormous sinkhole.

If he fell in, “the death rate is 100 percent,” said Mr. Overstreet’s friend and fellow researcher, Lincoln Pitcher.

But Mr. Overstreet’s task, to collect critical data from the river, is essential to understanding one of the most consequential impacts of global warming. The scientific data he and a team of six other researchers collect here could yield groundbreaking information on the rate at which the melting of Greenland ice sheet, one of the biggest and fastest-melting chunks of ice on Earth, will drive up sea levels in the coming decades. The full melting of Greenland’s ice sheet could increase sea levels by about 20 feet.

“We scientists love to sit at our computers and use climate models to make those predictions,” said Laurence C. Smith, head of the geography department at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the leader of the team that worked in Greenland this summer. “But to really know what’s happening, that kind of understanding can only come about through empirical measurements in the field.”

For years, scientists have studied the impact of the planet’s warming on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. But while researchers have satellite images to track the icebergs that break off, and have created models to simulate the thawing, they have little on-the-ground information and so have trouble predicting precisely how fast sea levels will rise.

much more,...
Quoting 303. Patrap:



There is NO debate, the Planet has warmed from us burning fossil fuels to run our Modern Society.


Not to mention the infrastructure that has provided our country with its energy and fuel needs is deteriorating rapidly..No new refineries have been built for at least thirty years.
Quoting 302. Loduck:

The area to the SW of CV... It is unorganized but I kinda thought that it had "that look" like something could possibly come from it?
Really late in the year for that to happen, but anything can happen..

Quoting 306. hydrus:

Not to mention the infrastructure that has provided our country with its energy and fuel needs is deteriorating rapidly..No new refineries have been built for at least thirty years.


I know, we built the last one here in 79'.
CA is doing march better this fall then last fall come this weekend and early next week are highs will get down too the mid too upper 50s and lowes in the lower too mid 30s so we may see are 1st forst of the season so you can tell its going too be cold and chilly out in the W has temps back E will warm back up in the upper 60s and low 70s this the way i think it may be for once CA can have a vary wet winter and the E and mid W less snow and cold
Quoting 308. Patrap:



I know, we built the last one here in 79'.
Yep....Motiva..?
311. MahFL
Quoting 303. Patrap:



There is NO debate, the Planet has warmed from us burning fossil fuels to run our Modern Society.




Most Republican politicians in the USA would not acknowledge that.
Motiva Shell, now Valero in Norco,La.
Quoting 281. georgevandenberghe:



Modoki Ninos tend to be very ugly for the Eastern U.S, cold with arctic outbreaks and stormy with an unclear precipitation signal. This is very different from the more common Nino signature in the East, warm and wet. If this one turns into a Modoki I'm ordering another cord of firewood here in DC metro.
Wish you could take ours...got all ya need
Quoting 311. MahFL:



Most Republican politicians in the USA would not acknowledge that.


They are dead as a party,and that's a solid win for all.
Quoting 281. georgevandenberghe:



Modoki Ninos tend to be very ugly for the Eastern U.S, cold with arctic outbreaks and stormy with an unclear precipitation signal. This is very different from the more common Nino signature in the East, warm and wet. If this one turns into a Modoki I'm ordering another cord of firewood here in DC metro.

I have to respectfully conclude that there is in fact no relation between EN/SO and the E US winter. Nothing modoki to be noticed during past two brutally cold ones.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 287. LargoFl:

DOC..have you seen this climate change article?.......................................Link



Interesting article. There is a video with it. You should post it if you can.
Quoting 311. MahFL:



Most Republican politicians in the USA would not acknowledge that.
They would suffer immeasurably without financial support from oil companies.
The area SW of the cape verde islands continues to look suspicious. it is in the same position and has a similiar structure to Tomas in 2010 when it was in its formative stages. It could Devaju be all over again.
Quoting 281. georgevandenberghe:



Modoki Ninos tend to be very ugly for the Eastern U.S, cold with arctic outbreaks and stormy with an unclear precipitation signal. This is very different from the more common Nino signature in the East, warm and wet. If this one turns into a Modoki I'm ordering another cord of firewood here in DC metro.
Thanks, their is rumor of this Nino becoming Modoki on another website, I read daily. This Nino will not be like 97/98, to many differences in world wide water temps.
Quoting 292. LargoFl:

don't know if that link worked but its an article on Nature.com and GW, and it said daily temps in an area of the middle east could soar to 170 degree's,and humans cannot live in those temps.. by 2100
Hi Largo, has the CO2 been higher in the past, of course it has, and has the temp in the desert ever reached 170F. I also know Florida has flooded many times before, and has been underwater by a few hundred feet, so what is going to stop it from happening again, maybe another Ice Age. Not really much we can do about it one way or the other. We stay warm and Florida submerges, stay cold Florida is a lot larger, but the Northern States are under hundreds of feet of Ice.
Quoting 237. LargoFl:

was just reading the NASA earthquake report...kinda scary for the folks out in LA huh.....clipped this headline.........................There is a 99.9 percent chance of a magnitude-5 or greater earthquake striking within three years in the greater Los Angeles area, where a similar sized temblor caused more the $12 million in damage last year, according to a study by NASA and university researchers.


A temblor in the neighborhood of 5.0 for the LA area is more inconvenience than catastrophe, thanks to the changes in building codes in the last 30 years. I lived in Orange County and worked in Anaheim, only a handful of miles away from the epicenter of the Whittier/Narrows quake, it was 5.9, and while scary (our office building was on rockers) was minimal in damage. I think one person died when a brick fell off a building and onto their head, but I could be mixing up events.

For perspective - my ex was on his Nighthawk 450, waiting for a light to change, on an Irvine overpass. He thought it was his engine idling rough, then noticed the cars around him were rocking a bit.

The same or even smaller quake, in an urban or poverty-stricken part of the world with no quake building codes? That would be catastrophic. In LA? It's treated like a noteable thunderstorm in other parts of the US.