WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Stunning, Historic, Mind-Boggling, and Catastrophic: Hurricane Patricia Hits 200 mph

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:04 PM GMT on October 23, 2015

Stunning, historic, mind-boggling, and catastrophic: that sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight. At 2:46 am EDT October 23, 2015 an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure of 880 mb in Patricia, making it the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. The aircraft measured surface winds of 200 mph, which are the highest reliably-measured surface winds on record for a tropical cyclone, anywhere on the Earth. The previous strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Linda of 1997, with a pressure of 902 mb (estimated from satellite imagery.) The strongest Atlantic hurricane on record was Hurricane Wilma of 2005, with an 882 mb central pressure. Patricia does not beat the record-lowest pressure in the Western Pacific, though, which is held by Super Typhoon Tip of 1979: 870 mb.


Figure 1. GOES-East satellite image of Hurricane Patricia at 10:45 am EDT October 23, 2015. Image credit: NOAA Viz Lab.


Figure 2. Wind barbs from the early-morning October 23, 2015 Air Force hurricane hunter mission into Hurricane Patricia, off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds of Category 5 strength (dark pink colors) at their flight level of 10,000 feet across a 20-mile diameter region. Winds at the surface as measured by a dropsonde were 9% lower compared to winds measured at flight level, so we likely there was a region at least 15 miles in diameter of Category 5 winds at the surface. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Patricia the fastest-intensifying Western Hemisphere hurricane on record
Patricia's central pressure dropped an astonishing 100 mb in 24 hours, making it the fastest-intensifying hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. Patricia's pressure at 5 am EDT Thursday, October 22, 2015 was 980 mb, and was 880 mb at 5 am EDT Friday. The previous record was a drop of 97 mb in 24 hours for Hurricane Wilma of 2005 (between 1200 UTC 18 October - 1200 UTC 19 October), according to the official NHC report for the storm. Patricia's intensification rate was very close to the WMO-recognized world record for fasting-intensifying tropical cyclone: 100 millibars in just under 24 hours by Super Typhoon Forrest in the Northwest Pacific in 1983.

Patricia is estimated to have intensified 85 knots (100 mph) in 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Linda of 1997 is the only storm on record to have intensified at this rate. The Atlantic's record holder for largest wind increase in 24 hours is held by Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which intensified from a 60-knot tropical storm to a 150-knot Category 5 hurricane--an increase of 90 knots (105 mph). Air Force reconnaissance observations indicated that the eye of Wilma contracted to a diameter of 2 n mi during this time; this is the smallest eye known to National Hurricane Center (NHC) staff. Patricia's eye diameter was 8 miles at it's peak strength.




Figure 4. Infrared VIIRS images of Hurricane Patricia (top) and Super Typhoon Haiyan (bottom) near peak strength, showing the similarity in satellite presentations of the two storms. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA and NOAA/RAMMB.

Patricia the third strongest tropical cyclone in history (by wind)
Patricia's 200 mph sustained winds make it the 3rd strongest tropical cyclone in world history (by 1-minute averaged wind speed.) Officially, here are the strongest tropical cyclones in world history, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center (using 1-minute averaged sustained winds):

Super Typhoon Nancy (1961), 215 mph winds, 882 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people.
Super Typhoon Violet (1961), 205 mph winds, 886 mb pressure. Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people.
Super Typhoon Ida (1958), 200 mph winds, 877 mb pressure. Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people.
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines with 190 mph winds.
Super Typhoon Kit (1966), 195 mph winds, 880 mb. Did not make landfall.
Super Typhoon Sally (1964), 195 mph winds, 895 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.

However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. The strongest reliably measured tropical cyclones were both 10 mph weaker than Patricia, with 190 mph winds—the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. Both storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds. Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence.

Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former head of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, had this to say about the winds measured in Super Typhoon Nancy and the other high-end typhoons from this list from the 1960s:

"I would not take the winds seriously because reconnaissance meteorologists estimated them visually. A decade later when I flew with the VW-1 hurricane hunters, we had the same Doppler system used to measure the winds of Typhoon Nancy. It tracked the aircraft motion relative to the (possibly moving) sea surface. It couldn't get a coherent signal in high winds because the beam reflected from both the actual surface (whatever that is) and blowing spray. Visual estimates are dubious because the surface (under the eyewall!) is hard to see unless you are flying below cloud base (200-300 m) and also because appreciably above 115 mph, it's completely white with blowing spray. We used to think that we could estimate stronger winds from the decreasing coverage of slightly greenish patches where the spray was thinner. I now think that we were kidding ourselves. In those days the distinctions among wind gust, sustained one-minute winds, etc., were less well defined than they are now. So we may never know the 1960s reconnaissance data really means!"

At the same time, we should keep in mind that not all hurricanes are sampled while at peak strength. Satellite methods of estimating intensity, such as the Dvorak technique, cannot capture the most extreme peak winds and central pressures found in storms such as Patricia and Wilma. It is possible that previous hurricanes, such as the 1935 Labor Day hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys, had intensification rates and peak winds on par with Patricia. The bottom line is that Patricia is at the very highest end of what we can expect in terms of a small, extremely intense hurricane.

The size of a hurricane also shapes its destructive power. Although Sandy was never a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, its longevity and size enabled it to move as much water in the form of waves and surge as Category 5 Katrina. We are lucky that Patricia is no larger than it is--although this is cold comfort for those who will be directly affected.



Figure 4. MODIS image of Hurricane Patricia as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Thursday, October 22, 2015. At the time, Patricia was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Patricia: Manzanillo at dire risk
Satellite loops early Friday afternoon showed that Patricia’s cloud tops had begun to warm, indicating weakening, and with wind shear now a moderate 10 - 20 knots and interaction with land beginning to occur, Patricia will likely weaken to 155 - 175 mph winds by landfall. The storm's expected turn toward the northeast has begun, and the storm is beginning to accelerate toward the coast of the Mexican state of Colima.

At particular risk is the city of Manzanillo, a regional center that straddles the back of a bay spanning several miles. On its current track, and with some acceleration in progress, it appears that Patricia could make landfall sometime between 5:00 and 9:00 pm EDT (4:00 - 8:00 local time, CDT] just to the northwest of Manzanillo--a trajectory that raises the odds of a catastrophic storm surge in or near Manzanillo. Patricia’s strongest winds are confined to a relatively small area, with hurricane-force winds only spanning a range of 30 miles from Patricia’s center. Category 5 winds of 156+ mph cover an area 15 miles across. Wherever those winds are focused, we can expect gigantic waves atop a devastating surge. An unnamed 1959 hurricane--the deadliest in Northeast Pacific history, with an estimated 1800 direct and indirect fatalities--struck near Manzanillo on October 27 (see embedded YouTube newsreel footage below). In a Friday afternoon blog post, storm surge expect Dr. Hal Needham says he expects a storm surge of 16.5 ft (5 m), which will be accompanied by large, destructive waves. This would be the largest storm surge in the modern history of Western Mexico.

After landfall, Patricia will slam into very rugged terrain, triggering torrential rains with the risk of severe flooding and mudslides. The mountainous trek will shred Patricia’s low-level circulation quickly, but the hurricane’s upper-level circulation will proceed quickly northeastward, arriving near South Texas by Sunday. Models suggest that a nontropical or hybrid low-pressure center may develop near the upper-level center at that point. Patricia’s presence will exacerbate a multi-day rain/flood episode already under way across Texas, with widespread 4” - 8” rainfall amounts across the eastern half of the state expected between now and Monday. Localized totals well over a foot are quite possible.

iCyclone storm chasers in the path of Patricia
Storm chaser Josh Morgerman, who intercepted Super Typhoon Haiyan at landfall in Tacloban in the Philippines, is aiming to be in the path of Hurricane Patricia's eye at landfall in Mexico. From the iCyclone Facebook page: "7:30 am Friday (Jalisco): Erik and I are staring down the barrel of a gun. Incredible Hurricane PATRICIA-- possibly the most intense hurricane in recorded history-- is just offshore with winds of 175 knots (200 mph). The NHC forecast track takes the center right over our current location. To say we have conflicted feelings is an understatement. We want to see history unfold. We also don't want to die. Main task-- as soon as we have daylight-- is to find a really good building in Perula or nearby La Fortuna. We're thinking closer to the main road-- away from the water."

Other Links:
Manzanillo beach cam
Puerto Vallarta webcam

We'll have a new update this afternoon, after a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft arrives in the storm.


Video 1. Newsreel footage of the aftermath of the unnamed 1959 hurricane that devastated Manzanillo, Mexico.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Eye is still discernible on shortwave, but it has lost some symmetry and structure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20E/flas h-swir-long.html

Other channels can hardly see the eye right now. It's filling in too much from land interaction now.
502. wpb
any mexico radar site tracking hurricane?
At 4:05 pm cst someone just wiped off the webcam at Manzanilla. I hope that guy leaves soon.
Quoting 503. FatPenguin:

At 4:05 pm cst someone just wiped off the webcam at Manzanilla. I hope that guy leaves soon.


Unless they got Cyclone Oz's Hurricane Suit, they best do so.
Wow - there are tornadoes with 2 mi diameters!

Quoting 490. nrtiwlnvragn:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 900 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT.


Link
506. Klux
Did it lose its eye before landfall? Looks like it burned itself out.
The webcam at La Manzanilla is very close to ground zero.
I've lived on the Gulf of Mexico. Always left for the hurricanes, but stayed for the rest, ie. tropical lows, tropical storms, surges from nearby storms, etc. What is showing on the webcam barely looks tropical. Though the winds are fierce around the core with this Patricia, there may be a lot of 'enhancement' going on with the radar broadcasting. According to all the 'loops', the wind should be blowing much stronger there.
Quoting 498. txjac:



These are unbelievable, they look like they were create for a movie

And dangit, I need to leave work but dont want to as I dont want to miss anything


Umm, did they leave all the deck chairs out?
Quoting 506. Klux:

Did it lose its eye before landfall? Looks like it burned itself out.


She is going through an ERC here at land fall ..
I'm sure they can run up the hillside.
Saw someone standing by the water on that web cam a minute ago
When is high tide on the Western Mexican coast today and tonight?
Where is the surge? Water at the beach cam hasn't come up 3 inches?
Quoting 508. franckinator:

I've lived on the Gulf of Mexico. Always left for the hurricanes, but stayed for the rest, ie. tropical lows, tropical storms, surges from nearby storms, etc. What is showing on the webcam barely looks tropical. Though the winds are fierce around the core with this Patricia, there may be a lot of 'enhancement' going on with the radar broadcasting. According to all the 'loops', the wind should be blowing much stronger there.


La Manzanilla is in a protected cove with a tall mountain range running along the eastern side, the winds from Patricia are having to blow over this mountain range before reaching the cam site.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 18:40:20 N Lon : 105:17:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.1 / 887.1mb/173.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -55.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.2C


It's over for patricia now.


Labor Day 1935 still stands as strongest landfall.
Well, so far the pics from the La Manzanilla-webcam don't look too bad. May it stay that way.

The latest from iCyclone:
Josh Morgerman@iCyclone 8 Min.Vor 8 Minuten La Huerta, Jalisco
Never thought I'd say this on chase, but I'm finding #Hurricane #PATRICIA's slight weakening (to semi-nuclear) kinda heartwarmin'. Thanks.



The eye just took a very sharp turn to the northeast. Does not look just like a wobble.
webcam link?
(wordlessly lurking)
The La Manzanilla beach cam picture is really getting glitchy.
Quoting 519. bballerf50:

webcam link?

Link.
Quoting 502. wpb:

any mexico radar site tracking hurricane?


nope, nothing close, Radar
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 06 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015


Excerpts:

...A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY...

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM CDT WED OCT
21 THROUGH 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 23...

...OKLAHOMA...
COLEMAN 4.6 WNW 4.86
COLBERT 2.2 SSW 4.80


...TEXAS...
POWELL 1 SW 7.37
KEENE 2 NNW 5.97
KERENS 3 NW 5.94
SWEETWATER 0.3 E 5.89

I been through several hurricanes. I can only fathom what 200mph with gust higher would be. Praying for those people.
Wow...

528. Klux
maybe they just replaced km/h with mp/h?
I live just N.E. of Houston in that are projected to see 8" to 12" of rain over the next few days.
We need the rain, but not this much. ;0)
HAARP.




It's always good to see weakening.Not downplaying that this is still a cat 5.But which would you rather prefer? 200mph winds or 170mph winds?
532. Klux
Quoting 530. swflEagle:

HAARP.







possibly looks like the natural daily uplift tookover...
#
Another wordless in FL
_/\_
Quoting 531. washingtonian115:

It's always good to see weakening.Not downplaying that this is still a cat 5.But which would you rather prefer? 200mph winds or 170mph winds?


190 not 170 :c
Quoting 480. tropicofcancer:

I've been watching 5 different cameras and the weather has really deteriorated in the last hour.
This 2 in Ixtapa gives you the feel of what's going on as the bands get closer.(you might have to refresh it a few times before they come on)
Link
Link



In that second video you can hear several little children.. why are they still there? :( Conditions are rapidly deteriorating now ... oh my god
Quoting 530. swflEagle:

HAARP.







Or you know, physics.

You have tall mountains right on the coast, no hurricane can maintain intensity with that type of topography nearby.
Just waiting for a 40 mph gust on the Manzanilla beach cam.
Quoting 531. washingtonian115:

It's always good to see weakening.Not downplaying that this is still a cat 5.But which would you rather prefer? 200mph winds or 170mph winds?
Can you imagine what this blog would look like if this was about to hit Florida?
Quoting 527. DavidHOUTX:

Wow...





This bad,...really bad.


We havent had a drop in nearly 29 days now here.


Very very small wind field, it looks like the coast is just now seeing winds at minimum hurricane force. The good news is that it's going to spare the large cities thank god!


Quoting 539. NatsFan:

Can you imagine what this blog would look like if this was about to hit Florida?



Easily as we have some destroying Fla on a daily basis before noon EDT every day usually.

: P
The live feed from La Manzanilla Del Mar just dropped out. Last few seconds were quite dicey.
Alright, start the cliches:

"*insert location here* dodged a bullet."
"It was unprecedented."
"We never saw nothing like this around here before."
"I saved some poor feller's dog."
"We didn't have flood insurance."
"It sounded like a freight train."
"It looks like a war zone." (never seen a war zone).
"It was like a bomb went off."
May all that is good and holy and healing be with the people in harm's way this night.
Quoting 478. Patrap:



Looks like landfall on this sequence.
Somebody had a question about tides:
Tide Times for Puerto Vallarta
High tide will be at 7:55 PM at 3.4 feet. So that's pretty close to landfall time.
Quoting 534. LakeWorthFinn:

Another wordless in FL
_/\_

Hi Finn! Have been totally stuck like glue throughout this whole ordeal!!
Quoting 505. weatherdogg:

Wow - there are tornadoes with 2 mi diameters!




Yep, another similarity with Wilma (2.5 mile diameter), had discussions comparing size to large tornadoes, or -
Wow, that is one well-wound waterspout!

#
On one of the webcams.....I just saw a flock of 25 birds fly by. Seems as if Mother Nature caught herself off guard. Wow. And if you listen real close you can hear them squawking their lungs out. Eerie.
In world history? How about since hurricane wind records have been kept...less than 100 years I believe.
The radar loop on this site shows Patricia as 'invisible'. The satellite shows no eye to the storm, and the clouds now appear thin and wispy, so thin that the land mass appears beneath them.
Quoting 543. RetiredChiefP:

The live feed from La Manzanilla Del Mar just dropped out. Last few seconds were quite dicey.

Here one of the last seconds of live feed:



And here where the cam is situated (red arrow, if I got this right); below latest center fix by recon:



By heart, best wishes to the folks down there!
Hurricane bingo

Quoting 544. IndividualThinker2:

Alright, start the cliches:

"*insert location here* dodged a bullet."
"It was unprecedented."
"We never saw nothing like this around here before."
"I saved some poor feller's dog."
"We didn't have flood insurance."
"It sounded like a freight train."
"It looks like a war zone." (never seen a war zone).
"It was like a bomb went off."
557. Klux
Quoting 554. franckinator:

The radar loop on this site shows Patricia as 'invisible'. The satellite shows no eye to the storm, and the clouds now appear thin and wispy, so thin that the land mass appears beneath them.


I noticed that too, like it dried up.
The little cam that could is back up again.
with the passes completed NOAA3 turns for Home,

and we offer a thankful Mission well done \\.

Semper Fi'





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 18:53:26 N Lon : 105:16:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.1 / 887.0mb/173.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 7.7 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -28.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C



Raw and adjusted came back up by 0.4 each.

Looks like it got a better fix on core temperature, but still probably not accurate.
We'll never know how strong Typhoon Haiyan was unfortunately , but thank God for the HH with Patricia.
Quoting 558. violet312s:

The little cam that could is back up again.

It is :-)
Edit: And someone just cleaned the lense :-)
Quoting 547. bwtranch:

Somebody had a question about tides:
Tide Times for Puerto Vallarta
High tide will be at 7:55 PM at 3.4 feet. So that's pretty close to landfall time.


That was me. Thanks for the information
almost, not quite. Soon though.


Quoting 546. PlazaRed:


Looks like landfall on this sequence.
565. PTXer
The La Manzinilla web can is still up.
Quoting 539. NatsFan:

Can you imagine what this blog would look like if this was about to hit Florida?


“Make sure your seat back trays are in their up right and locked position, and please read the card in the pocket on how to use your flotation device.”
Quoting 527. DavidHOUTX:

Wow...




and I'm right here in Lake Jackson!!!!!!
Quoting 240. Luisport:

OT:

It has now been reported that a extremely bright light was seen middle and northern Sweden. Possibly a meteor or something like that according to media.
http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article21638545 .ab
Where did you get this info? I cannot find anything about this. I was all too consumed with a hurricane to indulge my other interests today. The website did not work for me..../em>
iCyclone knows more of what they're doing that I do for sure, but a nighttime monster Patricia aims to be is an animal you can't fathom fully preparing for. Best of luck to them and everyone in its path.

Quoting 559. Patrap:

with the passes completed NOAA3 turns for Home,

and we offer a thankful Mission well done \\.

Semper Fi'








Can't remember the last time I've seen the end-of-the-arrow colors like that, if not ever.
Quoting 568. JustPlantIt:




Link
Using google earth and the latest position it looks like Patricia will landfall somewhere near Farallóne in about 2 hours. There's a small point at that location. That's if it keeps its 14 degree heading.
Quoting 539. NatsFan:

Can you imagine what this blog would look like if this was about to hit Florida?
There would be no blog.The website would crash from all the strain on the system.
Just offshore..

581. Klux
That's it, i dont think it even made landfall as a hurricane did it?
Quoting 568. JustPlantIt:



I found articles about a possible meteor both in Finnish and in Swedish media. The link that was posted before actually works if you take out the space before the period.

Patricia seems to be close to landfall. I'll still stay up until it happens (it's almost 11 pm here).
Quoting 554. franckinator:

The radar loop on this site shows Patricia as 'invisible'. The satellite shows no eye to the storm, and the clouds now appear thin and wispy, so thin that the land mass appears beneath them.


There isn't any radar in that area, so Hayian itself could be sitting off the coast and you wouldn't see it. And the wundermap sat display defaults to slightly transparent...
Quoting 581. Klux:

That's it, i dont think it even made landfall as a hurricane did it?


It hasn't made landfall yet.
The weakening might not matter too much, but hey it's something
Guy is back on La Manzanilla Cam
I expected more at the beach cam 30 miles NW of Manzanillo near eye landfall. Mid-tide right now.

Link
img src="http://www.earthcam.com/swf/cam_player/temp_i mages/1445637699046.jpg
">

You sir, are not smart.
getting pretty nasty on that web cam right now
In other weather related news, the Great Red Spot on Jupiter is shrinking, and nobody knows why. It shrank by about 180miles i the past couple years.
catching hell on that camera now
That projected path is going to pull all kinds of moisture off of the Gulf toward TX. LA, and where-ever. This will be interesting to watch....
595. ADCS
The web cam is really going to get it on the back end of the eyewall.
596. PTXer
Conditions quickly deteriorating on the La Manzinilla web cam
598. Klux
200mph winds, in a 10 mile radius! good gawd!
Quoting 589. canyonboy:

I expected more at the beach cam 30 miles NW of Manzanillo near eye landfall. Mid-tide right now.

Link

Those trees are starting to get torn up.
Quoting 591. depalma13:

getting pretty nasty on that web cam right now


Which one? Link please?

Looks like Jeff an the icyclone team are now experiencing the NE eyewall. They should be in position for it to pass directly over them in Emiliano Zapata.
Let's not forget in these types of storms they have mini tornados in them just like what was observed in Andrew and Charley.
The la Manzanilla Webcam just fell!!!!! HAHA on Live TV
603. PTXer
Web cam just got knocked over
Something just hit the camera, but it's still running
HOly

storm surge coming in

wave setup on camera righ tnow they are getin git
Apparently the wind hit it. But some crazy guy just righted it again!
wow, there is a person running that cam
Some guy just reset the cam!!! WOW
Quoting 600. StormJunkie:



Which one? Link please?

Looks like Jeff an the icyclone team are now experiencing the NE eyewall. They should be in position for it to pass directly over them in Emiliano Zapata.


http://www.myearthcam.com/lamanzanilla?cam=lamanz anilla
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
612. ADCS
That had to be a vortex that just cut through there - look at the tree damage.
Quoting 592. IndividualThinker2:

In other weather related news, the Great Red Spot on Jupiter is shrinking, and nobody knows why. It shrank by about 180miles i the past couple years.

Landfall in a mountainous region?

Meanwhile its about 3 pm in Mexico, so still plenty of light to see what's going one for those who are in the landfall area.
large parts of trees blowing off on the live cam!
There is still somebody there at that webcam! They just re-adjusted it and wiped it off. It was good though because it was pointed at the ground for a while. The water is definitely getting higher.
Quoting 591. depalma13:

getting pretty nasty on that web cam right now


link? i lost it
That webcam appears to be on the protected side of the bay for right now, since the wind is blowing the debris (and the waves) offshore. It will be a different picture when the eye wall passes and the winds reverse. I can't believe someone is still there!
Webcam is starting to have technical difficulties.Wouldn't be surprised if it shuts off permanently sooner than later.And what was someone still doing out there at a time like this? On the beach for christ sake.
Quoting 613. PlazaRed:


Landfall in a mountainous region?

Meanwhile its about 3 pm in Mexico, so still plenty of light to see what's going one for those who are in the landfall area.


Please check your facts before posting, it is 18:20pm Mexico City time, which is also the time zone for the general landfall area (further north it's an hour behind, but that's beyond the point).
621. Klux
looks pretty clear there, i could still get a suntan at poolside.
It's 5:30 in the landfall area but the time zone goes way west so it's closer to 4:30 True Solar Time.
Quoting 601. washingtonian115:

Let's not forget in these types of storms they have mini tornados in them just like what was observed in Andrew and Charley.

And Ivan as it still holds the unfortunate record of tornado's washi.. :)
Been here @WU lurking most for the day..
Quite a remarkable storm..
Also the NHC mentioned "multiple vortices are expected"
GOM worries me ..
Lots of untapped energy..
And Patricia has been hard to figure out "intensity wise"

Good to see ya.. :)
According to Mex press accounts, Officials called for 50,000 to be evacuated last night from coast line along 3 states. However, that was logistically impossible. Shelters are really 'temporary refuge' sites. Many are hunkered down in their homes. Puerto Vallarta International Convention center, 5 minutes driving in from marina and coast, is sheltering locals and tourists. It is a mostly glass building, built to host events for up to 6,000 people.
 Hotels began notifying guests that they no longer were guests but rather 'refugees' last night. Some got flights, some got buses, most have been taken to shelter. Most, if not all the shelters are really just hopefully safe spots- no cots, chairs, supplies, showers, ..
Dams as far away as the state of Aguacaliente have opened flood gates to hopefully better cope with the torrential rains expected from Patricia and a Cold Front moving in from Gulf.

Unite d States Consulate General Guadalajara

Emerg ency Message for U.S. Citizens: Hurricane Patricia

Dated : October 23, 2015

  ;

Hurri cane Patricia has been upgraded to an extraordinarily dangerous Category 5 hurricane, and is expected to make landfall on Friday, October 23, 2015, along the coast of Michoacan, Colima (which includes Manzanillo), Jalisco (which includes Puerto Vallarta),and/or Nayarit.  It is now considered one of the most powerful and dangerous hurricanes in recorded history.  If you are in the hurricane warning area, make preparations immediately to protect life and property.

  ;

The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an
updated Hurricane Warning for the Pacific Coast of Mexico from San Blas,
Nayarit, to Punta San Telmo, Michoacan (see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epa c).    A hurricane watch is in effect for east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

  ;

The center of Hurricane Patricia is expected to make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening.  Hurrica ne
Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the states of
Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero starting today into Saturday, October 24.
 These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods, mud slides
(especially in areas of mountainous terrain), and high winds up to 200
MPH that could result in downed power lines. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles. A dangerous storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding, accompanied by large
and destructive waves.  Swells may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  As Hurricane Patricia moves inland, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall, wind, and dangerous conditions.  Persons
located inland in the path of Hurricane Patricia should take
appropriate measures to ensure their safety, particularly those located
in areas prone to flooding or mudslides. NOAA recommends that residents
in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area evacuate
immediately.

 

We strongly encourage you to monitor media reports and the Mexican government’s civil protection (“Protección Civil”) website, http://www.proteccioncivil.g ob.mx,
for updated information about the storm and to follow official
instructions.  Stay clear of beaches, as rough seas associated with
storm conditions create severe hazards.  Stay clear of downed power lines.  Take
precautions against the effects of rain, strong winds, and large and
destructive waves. We strongly encourage you to take shelter as advised
by Mexican authorities or at any time you feel you are in danger.

  ;

At this time, the airport in Puerto Vallarta is closed. The water port is also closed to all maritime activities.

  ;

U.S.
citizens should stay in contact with relatives and friends in the
United States to apprise them of their whereabouts, both before and
after the storm.  Visitors should be familiar with their hotel or cruise
ship evacuation plans, as well as the location of Mexican
government-run emergency shelters.  

  ;

U.S.
citizens should monitor local radio, local media, and the National
Weather Service and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional to stay aware of
area weather developments.& nbsp; Pleas e also visit the following U.S. government websites for more information:

·& nbsp;   Mexico Country Specific Information:      http://www.travel.state.gov/ content/passports/en/country/mexico.html

          Hurri cane Season “Know Before You Go”:   http://travel.state.gov/c ontent/passports/english/emergencies/natural- disasters/HurricaneSeason.html

          Natio nal Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov /  ;

 

Periodic updates are also available on the websites for the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City and the U.S. Consulate General in Guadalajara.

 

You can alert us to U.S. citizens affected by the storm, including yourself, by sending an email to PatriciaEmergencyUSC@state.g ov and providing as much information as possible.  You can also contact us at

 

        +52-6 56-227-3105 (From Mexico) or 011-52-656-227-3105 (From U.S.) ,

        1-888-407-4747 (From the United States and Canada),

        +1-202-501-4444 (From all other countries),

  ;

When you send an email to PatriciaEmergencyUSC@state.g ov
to request assistance for a U.S. citizen in the affected area, please
be sure you provided us with as much of the following information as
possible.  Incomplete information may delay our ability to locate your
loved one and provide information or assistance.

 

About the U.S. citizen (s):

Full name

Date of birth

Place of birth

Last known location (please be as specific as possible)

Any available contact information

Any other information you think would be helpful in locating the U.S. citizen

 

About you (if you are writing about yourself, please just indicate “self”)

Your full name

Your contact information

Your relationship to the person about whom you are writing (e.g., spouse, parent, child, friend, employer, etc.)

 

If
you do establish contact with your loved one(s), be sure to write back
to us and let us know promptly so we can focus our efforts.  Please
include in your update whether your loved one is in need of assistance.

 

We strongly recommend that U.S. citizens traveling to or residing in Mexico enroll in the Department of State’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at travel.state.gov.  STEP
enrollment gives you the latest security updates, and makes it easier
for the U.S. Embassy or nearest U.S. consulate to contact you in an
emergency.  If you don’t have Internet access, enroll directly with the
nearest U.S. Embassy or consulate.

  ;

Visit the Embas sy's websiteand sign up for Facebook and Twitter.  Regul arly monitor the State Department's website,
where you can find current Travel Warnings, (including the Travel
Warning for Mexico), Travel Alerts, and the Worldwide Caution.  Read
the Country Specific Information for Mexico, and refer to the “Traveler’s Checklist”  ;on
the State Department’s website.  Contact the U.S. Embassy or Consulate
for up-to-date information on travel restrictions.  You can also call 1-888 -407-4747  ;toll-free in the United States and Canada or 1-202 -501-4444  ;from other countries.  These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through  ;Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).  Follow the State Department on Twitter  ;and Facebook  ;to have travel information at your fingertips.

  ;

Consu lar
services for Michoacan and Guerrero are provided by the U.S. Embassy in
Mexico City, located at Paseo de la Reforma 305, Colonia Cuauhtemoc,
Mexico D.F., 06500.  The Embassy is open Monday through  ;Friday, from 8:00am to 5:00pm, except for U.S. and Mexican holidays.  Our telephone number during and outside of business hours is 011-52-555-080-2000. 

Jalis co
and Colima are serviced by the U.S. Consulate General in Guadalajara,
located at Progreso 175, Colonia Americana, Guadalajara, Jalisco C.P.
44160.  The Consulate General is open Monday through  ;Friday from&nb sp;8:00 am to 4:30 pm, except for U.S. and Mexican holidays.  Our telephone number during and outside of business hours is 011-52-333-268-2100.

For a full list of Consulates General and Consular Agencies in Mexico please visit our website at http://mexico.usembassy.g ov/eng/edirectory.html

626. vis0
correction as to a comment posted on the previous Dr. Mastes blogbyte.

 i think there can be a Hurricane with sustained winds of 215mph     237mph, we'll talk/argue, point fingers and laff at vis0 LATER. Just posting this and my explanation zilly pg4 cmmnt#173 before i forget to post/clarify my reasoning.
Will there be an opportunity for students of this storm to do anything like energy balance equations over time? In particular, it seems it would be very interesting to identify the sources and proportions of the heat energy, and latent heat of water, contributing to the storm over its track, and over time. How much did atmospheric conditions and energies contribute? How much did energies in the sea contribute, including SSTs and other factors? How much did chance factors contribute? I don't mean 'internal variability' so much on the latter, but, presumably, if the track had been perturbed randomly off the course it actually took, the atmospheric and other contributions would have been different, and, so, a Monte Carlo simulation might capture what is the possible range of variability in the storm's intensity and damage were these alternative tracks what happened.
Cut
Once again you and the willing media over sold the danger of a storm for ratings, creating an even more dangerous outcome next time for people in the path of a storm. Face it Jeff, weather science has come a long way, but predicting outcomes is mainly still an exercise in dogmatic beliefs and ego.