WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Patricia Hits Category 5 En Route to Mexican Coast

By: Bob Henson 4:28 AM GMT on October 23, 2015

History is being made tonight in the Northeast Pacific as Hurricane Patricia churns about 200 miles off the coast of Mexico, south-southwest of Manzanillo. With its 11 pm EDT Thursday advisory, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Patricia to Category 5, with top sustained winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 924 millibars. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, including Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, with a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning eastward to Lazaro Cardenas. Update: Late Thursday night, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight captured some of the most extreme observations ever recorded in 70 years of reconnaissance activity. Based on flight-level winds of 179 knots (206 mph), NHC upgraded Patricia's strength at 12:30 am EDT Friday to 185 mph. The estimated surface pressure of 892 mb is the lowest on record for the Northeast Pacific, and it ranks #3 for the entire Western Hemisphere behind only Wilma (882 mb, on October 19, 2005) and Gilbert (888 mb, on September 13, 1988). A surface reading of 892 mb was recorded at Key West during the Labor Day hurricane (September 2, 1935).


Figure 1. Satellite image of Hurricane Patricia at 0347Z Friday, October 23, 2015 (11:47 pm EDT Thursday).


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Patricia close to nightfall, at 2345Z (7:45 pm EDT) Thursday, October 22. 2015. Image credit: NOAA and CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin.


Figure 3. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Hurricane Patricia from near sunset on Thursday, October 22. 2015. Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin, courtesy Stu Ostro.

Satellite imagery of Patricia late Thursday was stunning, as the hurricane carved out a very symmetric core of intensifying convection (showers and thunderstorms) with a small eye at its center. Cloud-top temperatures within the convection are as cold as -130°F, a sign of extremely powerful updrafts. Patricia’s rate of strengthening since Wednesday has been truly remarkable. In a mere 36 hours, Patricia’s official NHC rating went from minimal tropical storm (40 mph) to Category 5 hurricane--among the most rapid intensification rates one might expect in a hurricane anywhere. NHC’s advisory on Thursday night placed Patricia in the elite group of 15 Northeast Pacific hurricanes that have reached Category 5 strength since 1959. One of those--an unnamed storm that struck near Manzanillo in 1959--is expected to be downgraded to Category 4 later this year after a reanalysis of data is confirmed. It remains the deadliest Northeast Pacific hurricane to date, resulting in an estimated 1800 direct and indirect fatalities.


Figure 4. The eye of Hurricane Patricia as seen by the navigator on NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N43RF on Thursday afternoon, October 22, 2015. At the time, Patricia was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Hurricane Hunters Facebook Page.


Unfortunately, Patricia is destined to fall in an even smaller group of Category 5s that take aim at Mexico’s Pacific coastline. Most of the intense hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific move along west-northwest tracks that keep them well offshore of Mexico. Apart from the 1959 storm, only two Cat 5s in the Northeast Pacific database have arced northeastward into Mexico: 2009’s Hurricane Rick, which weakened to a tropical storm well before making landfall, and 2002’s Hurricane Kenna, the closest analogue by far to Patricia. Kenna strengthened as it recurved, then weakened only slightly before it plowed into the coast near San Blas as a Category 4 storm. Causing at least four deaths and inflicting around $100 million US in damage, Kenna struck with winds of 140 mph, which made it the second-strongest Pacific storm to strike Mexico in modern records.

The forecast for Patricia
Hurricanes rarely maintain Category 5 status for more than 24 hours, but Patricia has a very good shot at remaining a formidable storm right up to landfall. Along the expected path, sea-surface temperatures are at near-record warm levels (about 30.5°C, or 87°F), and there is enough deep oceanic heat so that even violent Category 5 winds are unlikely to stir up enough cooler water to disrupt the storm (see Figure 5 below). Vertical wind shear has increased to moderate levels (10 - 20 knots), and the shear is predicted to continue increasing on Friday, as Patricia moves into a zone of stronger upper-level southwesterlies that will curve the storm to the right. These winds may also push drier air into the hurricane’s core, which could cause some disruption. Intense hurricanes also tend to go through eyewall replacement cycles after a day or two at peak strength, so it’s quite possible that such a cycle will occur before landfall, which could cut down Patricia’s strength slightly. Even with all these factors taken into account, it seems very probable that Patricia will reach land as at least a Category 4; the NHC’s official forecast updated at 12:30 am EDT Friday brings Patricia onshore as a Category 5.


Figure 5. Oceanic heat content along the general expected path of Hurricane Patricia. Values above 50 kilojoules per square centimeter (yellow) indicate deep warm water, reducing the odds that the strong winds of an intense hurricane will churn up cooler water that might disrupt it. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University.


Forecast models did an excellent job of predicting Patricia’s rapid strengthening, and they are in close agreement on the general track over the next several days: a smooth, sharp turn toward the northeast on Friday, followed by rapid motion into the Mexican coast late Friday or early Saturday. This turn has already begun, as Patricia is now moving toward the north-northwest. The exact timing and sharpness of the turn will determine where Patricia makes landfall; by Friday, we should have a more precise sense of the landfall location, which will most likely be somewhere between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. For now, everyone in the hurricane watch area--and especially the warning area--should be extremely prudent and take this storm very seriously. A direct hit on Puerto Vallarta is a possibility, though that outcome is toward the left edge of the various model solutions. Although no hurricanes of this intensity have struck near Puerto Vallarta in modern times, Kenna (which made landfall about 60 miles to the north) wreaked considerable damage on the Puerto Vallarta area, largely from storm surge. If Patricia strikes between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, it would put the city of Manzanillo and the surrounding bay at considerable risk of storm surge.

Along with the immediate coastal threats of storm surge and extreme wind, Patricia will likely produce torrential rain with the risk of life-threatening floods in the mountains and hills to the north and northeast of its path, including parts of Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. By late in the weekend, Patricia will be racing across southern Texas, exacerbating what may be a very serious flood threat across parts of the state. See our roundup from this afternoon for more on this multi-pronged heavy rain episode over Texas.

Jeff Masters will be filing our next update on Patricia on Friday morning.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. nrtiwlnvragn:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT FRI 23 OCTOBER 2015


3. REMARKS: BOTH THE NOAA P-3 AND NASA WB-57 ARE FLYING MISSIONS ON HURRICANE PATRICIA TODAY AS DETAILED ON TCPOD 15-149.


TCPOD NUMBER.....15-149

1. HURRICANE PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 23/1800Z
B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA
C. 23/1430Z
D. 18.0N 105.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

Leaves in 32 minutes.
The purple below indicates the very cold cloud tops; I don't see much sign of weakening at the moment:

Patricia has made her right* hook and is now on approach based on satellite. The satellite presentation looks unchanged, so she's probably peaking about now. I'm still just in utter shock about how strong of a hurricane this got. Haiyan took a few days. Patricia took less than two.
504. MahFL
Beautiful Patrica :



505. MahFL
Quoting 503. CybrTeddy:

Patricia has made her left hook and is now on approach.


You mean right hook ?
Quoting 503. CybrTeddy:

Patricia has made her left hook and is now on approach. The satellite presentation looks unchanged, so she's probably peaking about now. I'm still just in utter shock about how strong of a hurricane this got. Haiyan took a few days. Patricia took less than two.


Looking down from the North Pole?
Quoting 500. Patrap:



I never worry about those who go in Harms way, ...deliberatly


Well, I understand -- if you're collecting valuable data, because oh boy this hurricane will give plenty of that. If you're just getting, "the shot" as a certain chaser I can think of would then I'm less understanding.
Quoting 506. Drakoen:



Looking down from the North Pole?


Corrected.
This comes too late I guess, but nothing like this has happened in that region in modern times. If this does hit at 200-205mph, you can't really assume that designated shelters are safe. I hope the recommendation was full evacuation, rather than going to any supposed public shelters.
Quoting 428. barbamz:

Patricia and Haiyan:


Source twitter: Brian Kirk @BrianKirkWX 4 Min.vor 4 Minuten
Here's the latest satellite snapshot of Hurricane Patricia, great imagery of a historic storm...


Haiyan. Source.


Really makes you wonder just how low the pressure and how high Haiyan's winds really were given that at its peak its presentation is better than Patricia's (and Patricia is an 880mb 175kt beast...).

I dread to think how many more of these monster storms I'll see in my lifetime, especially as waters continue to warm and fuel even stronger systems.
What a most powerful beautiful and yet potentially Dangerous Hurricane Patricia is. Its unbelievable how strong Patricia got in such a SHORT time frame. I am telling you Florida and the Southeast have dodged bullets the last 10 years. If we facing something like this it would nothing short of CATASTROPHIC!!.
Quoting 503. CybrTeddy:
Patricia has made her left hook and is now on approach. The satellite presentation looks unchanged, so she's probably peaking about now. I'm still just in utter shock about how strong of a hurricane this got. Haiyan took a few days. Patricia took less than two.


So Patricia has hooked left??
1345 UTC image

Quoting 511. Envoirment:



Really makes you wonder just how low the pressure and how high Haiyan's winds really were given that at its peak its presentation is better than Patricia's (and Patricia is an 880mb 175kt beast...).

I dread to think how many more of these monster storms I'll see in my lifetime, especially as waters continue to warm and fuel even stronger systems.
Good point..I never dreamed I would see a "W" hurricane in the Atlantic, let alone the W be a cat-5, and then on the the Greek alphabet.
517. MahFL
The pier cam went down already.
Quoting 514. LakeAlfredian:



So Patricia has hooked left??


He meant right.
Patricia Funktop Loop

sans lat/lon



Quoting 519. Patrap:

Patricia Funktop Loop

sans lat/lon






mean green killing machine..
521. MahFL
Quoting 514. LakeAlfredian:



So Patricia has hooked left??


No, the person got it backwards, or was using a boxing analogy, which conventionally is not used to describe the movement of hurricanes.
522. MAstu
Quoting 456. Snacker2:

Who else left work yesterday thinking Patricia would go cat 5, wakes up, makes it to the office, and saw the blog about cat 5. and thought.. Knew it. Then went to the comments section, and saw ... 200MPH!!!??!?!?!?!?!!! Then wasted 30 minutes looking at every satellite loop and discussion about Patricia they could find while they're supposed to be doing their job?
Good thing for me is that I work in catastrophe modeling so obsessing over big storms IS my job =)
How susceptible is the area in the cone for storm surge?
Quoting 467. bayoubug:

Prayers to the people of Mexico in the path of this dangerous storm.


Keep an eye out for my forthcoming publication: A Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Analysis of the Efficacy of Supplications on the Reduction of Population Smiting During Natural Disasters, by Religion and Deity, currently in peer review.
Found a site with some Mexican doppler images; still trying to find the different sites within:

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_conten t&view=article&id=14&Itemid=16


Quoting 502. weathermanwannabe:

The purple below indicates the very cold cloud tops; I don't see much sign of weakening at the moment:


Looks like it is moving NNE. This would bring it in farther south than the current forecast track
Quoting 514. LakeAlfredian:



So Patricia has hooked left??


No, I just clearly failed to understand the concept of 'left' and 'right' at some point.

Patricia has made her right hook and is heading towards Mexico.
Quoting 496. CybrTeddy:



No kidding. Worried for those guys.

There was talk of them moving to some hotel inland as the one on the beach 'isn't safe'.
529. MahFL
The main population area of Manzanillo is in the center of this image :

If Patricia keeps moving the way she is, Manzanillo will get a direct hit from a 6 Hr. EF5 tornado with Tsunami type waves
Does anyone know of any other links to live web cams from Mexico?
Prayers going out to the folks in the path of Patricia.
Quoting 523. luvtogolf:

How susceptible is the area in the cone for storm surge?


Just looked at Google Earth. Would not be good for Manzanillo if it got in the right front quadrant.
Here are the current Mexican Doppler locations:


Based on this storm, and the map, they should consider another one between Gusave to the North and Acapulco to the South in the future.

Quoting 530. Camerooski:

If Patricia keeps moving the way she is, Manzanillo will get a direct hit from a 6 Hr. EF5 tornado with Tsunami type waves


Remember it's hard to make direct wind comparisons with tornadoes. Tornadoes have extreme vertical lift/updrafts that are more destructive (mph vs. mph). Tornadoes also have basically instant change in wind direction at extreme speeds.
But your point is well taken. The conditions will be severe.
At least in these modern times you can prepare or run from these storms unlike a catastrophic earthquake like the 1985 Mexico City Quake which by the way the epicenter was near where Patricia will be making landfall.
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 17:17:00 N Lon : 105:39:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.1 / 887.9mb/173.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.1 8.2 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +2.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.4 degrees


8.1, 8.2, 8.2

maintaining.
Quoting 531. j3nnyb3an:

Does anyone know of any other links to live web cams from Mexico?
There was one at post 308, but I can't get it to come up anymore. It was just windy about an hour ago, nothing catastrophic- so maybe they just turned it off, and left.
It was a bar on the beach, the camera was looking north, and it was kinda dark, but you could see the waves, and some folks were sitting at the bar drinking. It was windy, too.
If it's a boxing metaphor, then a left hook would be the one used. Throw a "left hook" and see which way it curves. Take care that your co-workers aren't watching ;)
Quoting 530. Camerooski:

If Patricia keeps moving the way she is, Manzanillo will get a direct hit from a 6 Hr. EF5 tornado with Tsunami type waves
You forgot the flying flaming alligators
Everybody stop picking on Teddy. The kid got excited is all :)
Quoting 503. CybrTeddy:

Patricia has made her right* hook and is now on approach based on satellite. The satellite presentation looks unchanged, so she's probably peaking about now. I'm still just in utter shock about how strong of a hurricane this got. Haiyan took a few days. Patricia took less than two.

Yeah im just in shock how fast this storm went from a 60 mph storm to a 175kt hurricane.
La Manzanilla Beach Cam http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html


Quoting 540. aquak9:

There was one at post 308, but I can't get it to come up anymore. It was just windy about an hour ago, nothing catastrophic- so maybe they just turned it off, and left.
It was a bar on the beach, the camera was looking north, and it was kinda dark, but you could see the waves, and some folks were sitting at the bar drinking. It was windy, too.
Oh Lord this storm...

Finally our hemisphere gets to see a rival for the Great Hurricane of 1780, which was estimated from the bark stripped off of trees of being 200 mile per hour winds... but there was never another one like it so it was just a guess...

My prayers are for those too poor to get out, may God help them in their hour of need.

Quoting 540. aquak9:

There was one at post 308, but I can't get it to come up anymore. It was just windy about an hour ago, nothing catastrophic- so maybe they just turned it off, and left.
It was a bar on the beach, the camera was looking north, and it was kinda dark, but you could see the waves, and some folks were sitting at the bar drinking. It was windy, too.


Thank you! But, booooh...work blocks it. :(
1415 UTC Image

LaManzanillaCam

Thank you PensacolaStorm!!!
Quoting 542. aquak9:

You forgot the flying flaming alligators


What else could 1-up "Sharknado"?

Now it will crash.

Quoting 549. aquak9:

LaManzanillaCam

Thank you PensacolaStorm!!!
Quoting 549. aquak9:

LaManzanillaCam

Thank you PensacolaStorm!!!


Ahem* Prepare for cliche.

"The Calm before the Storm."
553. vis0
Quoting 259. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Where is the shear when it would actually do some good?
i think of sheer as another double edge sword of nature. TO ME If the sheer does not have enough in these 5 categories; length, width, vertically stacked (several levels of atmosphere are joined), not strong I (momentum), not strong II (grouping) then that area of sheer can be "taken"/used by a developing LOW and used as a form of fuel injection, like pulling the chord of a lawn mower once that engine get high octane fuel injection going (spark plug sez GO!) it has SUCH a HIGH momentum, IT (Cat5+*) will be its OWN protection.



In the 1990s ~1995 wrote Jim Cantore is there could be a chance of "cat 5+" Hurricanes and "cat5+" Tornadoes (@both having ~10 to 15% more mph than "just" a cat5) due to earth warming. As usual i never get replies since i include my crazy theories and ml-d explanations. Still, i remember Jim the week the letter arrived at TWCh (i'd ask for return signatures) did have a weather desk talk that its impossible to have anything above cat5, so maybe so many asked a similar question that it was indirectly replied to as, "no that cannot happen" and explained very well, sadly nature took meteorology course 888 (open ended course in how to balance the atmosphere) and knows more.

In the end i dislike using anything above cat5 as having 5 levels fits a theory of nature i use in categorizing energy output plus as stated by another WxU member cat5 is obliteration, what would cat6 be?, destruction of what? since nothing was left from a cat5 to "begin" with, so i prefer "cat5+".
Note the WV loop.

Quoting 530. Camerooski:

If Patricia keeps moving the way she is, Manzanillo will get a direct hit from a 6 Hr. EF5 tornado with Tsunami type waves


Nope the wind field of a tornado and a tropical cyclone are different, even if the wind speed is the same. A tornado has a far more turbulent wind field on the micro-scale and can lead to torsion vibration etc.. The wind field in a tropical cyclone is less turbulent on the micro-scale, more straight line and therefor the damage will differ. Wind speed isn't the only factor determine what damage will occur. Look for similar tropical cyclone as a reference, the tornado comparison is imho misleading.
Do we have any storm surge projections out yet?
Quoting 557. DeepSeaRising:

Do we have any storm surge projections out yet?



Read the NHC discussion on Patricia..as thats where all the official info is located.
Quoting 555. ChrisHamburg:



Nope the wind field of a tornado and a tropical cyclone are different, even if the wind speed is the same. A tornado has a far more turbulent wind field on the micro-scale and can lead to torsion vibration etc.. The wind field in a tropical cyclone is less turbulent on the micro-scale, more straight line and therefor the damage will differ. Wind speed isn't the only factor determine what damage will occur. Look for similar tropical cyclone as a reference, the tornado comparison is imho misleading.


Nothing like seeing a house still in one piece lift a couple hundred feet off the ground and then get instantly ripped apart.
Link

More webcams can probably be found on this website.. But this is one very close to Manzanillo..
from the 7am NHC disco,

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Quoting 555. ChrisHamburg:



Nope the wind field of a tornado and a tropical cyclone are different, even if the wind speed is the same. A tornado has a far more turbulent wind field on the micro-scale and can lead to torsion vibration etc.. The wind field in a tropical cyclone is less turbulent on the micro-scale, more straight line and therefor the damage will differ. Wind speed isn't the only factor determine what damage will occur. Look for similar tropical cyclone as a reference, the tornado comparison is imho misleading.


Indeed, few miles can make all the difference in wind damage seen too. Very small radius will experience top end winds. Like in Tacloban, they experienced CDO and winds of extreme nature but not the top end that Haiyan produced likely. But............if you get hit by the eye and 200 mph winds, it won't matter; those winds destroy everything.
Per Mark Sudduth " Patricia is NOT a 100 mile wide or 60 mile wide EF-5 tornado. I’ve seen people saying this on social media and it’s just wrong. Let me explain…

A hurricane like Patricia is very rare, obviously. One thing we do know because of the recon flights that have provided incredible in-situ data is that the radius of maximum winds (RMW) is very narrow. In fact, the ENTIRE extent of hurricane force winds, 74 mph to 200 mph in this case, is ONLY 30 miles from the eye. This is extremely important because it limits the amount of real estate that will have to deal with those winds. In other words, if you live just 40 miles from the eye, you would hardly notice as the core passed by. Move 20 miles closer to the eye and it’s a terrifying siege of flying debris and flesh-stripping wind. So while it will be awful for those who have to endure the core, it’s not like we’re talking about 100 miles of coastline laid to waste.

Another aspect of the small RMW is the storm surge. Katrina had a storm surge of 28+ feet in some locations due to its enormous RMW – more than 90 miles at one point. The result was a surge of water pushed onshore from Louisiana to Florida. In the case of Patricia, it will be a small area, maybe 10 to 20 miles, that receives a possible catastrophic storm surge. Wind drives the surge and the wind is only 200 mph very close to the eye.

I bring this up because it is important to keep the facts straight and not let the historic moment become clouded with information that is simply incorrect. Patricia is bad enough on its own and for those who remain in its path, today will be one not soon forgotten

That being said, it’s been quite a year for tropical cyclones globally. After several years in a row with few intense hurricanes and typhoons, 2015 has seen a remarkable turnaround. The latest is Patricia, now poised to strike Mexico near Manzanillo later today, and it is about as intense as they come.

There is not much I can say in terms of preparedness actions. Simply put, people in the path of this hurricane need to leave, period. If they haven’t done so already, they need to get moving. "
WHAT THE, I knew Patricia would be strong today but 880mb 200 mph?!?! strongest western hemisphere storm on record?!?!
Looks like the best hope for some weakening before landfall is from a little dry air intrusion (as opposed to shear or ssts) that is slowly creeping in.



Vis0 nails it AGAIN-

it was indirectly replied to as, "no that cannot happen" and explained very well, sadly nature took meteorology course 888 (open ended course in how to balance the atmosphere) and knows more.
Chuck Norris changed underpants from Bruce Lee to Patricia.
Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone 31m31 minutes ago La Huerta, Jalisco
This is a shelter in San Mateo. No interior rooms, all glass. We explained why this is bad & suggested alternative

Link
Quoting 514. LakeAlfredian:



So Patricia has hooked left??
do you mean her right hook
One question, if Patricia makes landfall at that intensity, would that be the most intense landfall recorded in history?
I also see that Patricia's pressure dropped 100 mb and winds increased 115 mph in 24 hours.... is this a record as well?
There is NO dry air intrusion as the Hurricane is embedded within a encapsulated very Humid air mass...as seen in the WV loop

Or it is "insolated" as per the NHC forecast of maintaining or even slightly increasing in strength up to Landfall.




Quoting 564. pipelines:

WHAT THE, I knew Patricia would be strong today but 880mb 200 mph?!?! strongest western hemisphere storm on record?!?!



that would be 880mb and 200mph may be it would help you read back a few pages too find out what been happening
It's going to be a flooding disaster in many areas for the next several days; incredible amount of rain with this one headed in:


Quoting 569. CybrTeddy:

Josh Morgerman %u200F@iCyclone 31m31 minutes ago La Huerta, Jalisco
This is a shelter in San Mateo. No interior rooms, all glass. We explained why this is bad & suggested alternative

Link


Thats is insane, as that shelter is a Glass bomb .

Quoting 574. Patrap:

There is NO dry air intrusion as the Hurricane is embedded within a encapsulated very Humid air mass...as seen in the WV loop

Or it is "insolated" as per the NHC forecast of maintaining or even slightly increasing in strength up to Landfall.






Those in its path better have an escape route ... never seen one like this!
Quoting 571. MoltenIce:

One question, if Patricia makes landfall at that intensity, would that be the most intense landfall recorded in history?


Officially I think so.

Right now, I'm pretty sure Labor Day 1935 is still the official landfall record, but there were unconfirmed claims that Cyclone Monica hit land stronger. It's hard to tell though because western and central pacific and south pacific storms have a different environmental pressure, so they have to be about 30mb stronger to be comparable dvorak number.
Quoting 563. DelawareJack:

[..]Wind drives the surge [..]


Pressure, too. If the system gives the bulge the time by moving at walking pace this one might quite well be good for like 8 metres.
First my prayers go out to people in the path of Patricia. My question to all meteorologists is this, why dont we have a category above cat 5, obviously if their was Patricia would fall into category 7 or 8,.. please explain why we atop at Category 5.
Quoting 577. Patrap:



Thats is insane, as that shelter is a Glass bomb .




I was thinking the same thing.

Fire that disaster planner immediately. That's ridiculous.
Quoting 573. hydrus:



So like I suggested before: where is the EWRC? Like Haiyan this thing is displaying a tungsten core.
I had to have my coffee to make sure this wasn't a mistake or some crazy dream.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230834
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR.
It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.






firing everywhere ...


wow look at the funktop imagery
What a monster storm. I glanced early yesterday at a low level hurricane and last night it was bad, now today its truly a monster storm. I hope those in its patch can move out of it fast.
Quoting 577. Patrap:



Thats is insane, as that shelter is a Glass bomb .




Yeah that structure would be extremely dangerous in a hurricane that strong. I wouldn't feel safe in a category 3 in that structure either. Doesn't look much like a shelter. Not good.
591. IDTH
There is no way this is real?! I can't believe what I am seeing.
1445 UTC Viz

This hurricane is off the charts. Literally


Quoting 535. Patrap:


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 17:21:02 N Lon : 105:35:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.2 / 884.5mb/176.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.2 8.1 8.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -0.3C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.3 degrees


8.2,8.1,8.1

maintaining, possibly intensifying/fluctuating.



I think the final trails the Raw and Adjusted by a few re-calculations for consistency, so it may have actually peaked 30 minutes or an hour ago, when raw and adjusted were both 8.3.

Either way, it'll likely still be 200mph or more on next official update.

I calculate 202mph.
Another meteorological record broken today. Not long ago a 1000 year rain event in the SE United states .  Many record temps in Europe this year. 2015 . The weather she's a'changing .
As it will continue to warm, well...if you have been paying attention the last 9-10 years, it has and was predicted.
Quoting 581. Gege0001:

First my prayers go out to people in the path of Patricia. My question to all meteorologists is this, why dont we have a category above cat 5, obviously if their was Patricia would fall into category 7 or 8,.. please explain why we atop at Category 5.


Honestly, Tropical depressions - cat5 storms is just a name given to a storm based on its strength, the name has nothing to do with the actual strength. For example a storm that has winds in access of say 120 mph is going to have winds at that strength despite what we rate it, its just a meteorological rating system to help the public better understand the strength of the storm.
Quoting 563. DelawareJack:

Per Mark Sudduth " Patricia is NOT a 100 mile wide or 60 mile wide EF-5 tornado. I’ve seen people saying this on social media and it’s just wrong. Let me explain…

A hurricane like Patricia is very rare, obviously. One thing we do know because of the recon flights that have provided incredible in-situ data is that the radius of maximum winds (RMW) is very narrow. In fact, the ENTIRE extent of hurricane force winds, 74 mph to 200 mph in this case, is ONLY 30 miles from the eye. This is extremely important because it limits the amount of real estate that will have to deal with those winds. In other words, if you live just 40 miles from the eye, you would hardly notice as the core passed by. Move 20 miles closer to the eye and it’s a terrifying siege of flying debris and flesh-stripping wind. So while it will be awful for those who have to endure the core, it’s not like we’re talking about 100 miles of coastline laid to waste.

Another aspect of the small RMW is the storm surge. Katrina had a storm surge of 28+ feet in some locations due to its enormous RMW – more than 90 miles at one point. The result was a surge of water pushed onshore from Louisiana to Florida. In the case of Patricia, it will be a small area, maybe 10 to 20 miles, that receives a possible catastrophic storm surge. Wind drives the surge and the wind is only 200 mph very close to the eye.

I bring this up because it is important to keep the facts straight and not let the historic moment become clouded with information that is simply incorrect. Patricia is bad enough on its own and for those who remain in its path, today will be one not soon forgotten

That being said, it’s been quite a year for tropical cyclones globally. After several years in a row with few intense hurricanes and typhoons, 2015 has seen a remarkable turnaround. The latest is Patricia, now poised to strike Mexico near Manzanillo later today, and it is about as intense as they come.

There is not much I can say in terms of preparedness actions. Simply put, people in the path of this hurricane need to leave, period. If they haven’t done so already, they need to get moving. "


Solid post. Lots of good info.
Wow, I woke up and went immediately to the NHC. It never once crossed my mind that i'd see 200 mph winds, just plain ridiculous. This should be the storm that shows the Western Pacific countries that they need Hurricane Hunters themselves.
600. wpb
those c130 that fly into hurricanes are tanks those readings they measured in patricia just part of its job.
crew was excited to see the onboard radar and get all of those measurements.
Quoting 581. Gege0001:

First my prayers go out to people in the path of Patricia. My question to all meteorologists is this, why dont we have a category above cat 5, obviously if their was Patricia would fall into category 7 or 8,.. please explain why we atop at Category 5.


because over 157mph sustained, near total destruction of structures, some even well built, occurs. there's no point in adding more categories.
I'd estimate Patricia peaked at about 12-13z or so. CDO warming now likely due to slight shear increase and/or possible EWRC beginning. Probably won't make a huge difference, with impacts already starting. Will be tough for it to fall below Cat 5 status by landfall.
Found the primary site for the Mexican weather service which is up and running; all of the advisories and satt shots (the advisories are in spanish):

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_conten t&view=article&id=15&Itemid=86




Quoting 590. Jedkins01:



Yeah that structure would be extremely dangerous in a hurricane that strong. I wouldn't feel safe in a category 3 in that structure either. Doesn't look much like a shelter. Not good.


Based on velocity squared technique, this has 3.31 times the force of a 111mph storm.

This will level brick structures and even blow it clean off the foundation.
Right on the coast at Manzanillo is a LP/natural gas tank farm with marine terminal, a gasoline/oil tank farm and a major power plant. And the international airport is literally right on the beach! This could be really bad for the long term too.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
937 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-M ADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWE LL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD... HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON.. .WILLIS...
WINNIE
937 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT ...BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON... MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND SOME AREA OF RAINFALL MAY REACH 9 TO 12 INCHES.

* THE RAINFALL RATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY EXCEED 3 INCH
PER HOUR RATES WHICH WILL EASILY LEAD TO STREET FLOODING. RIVER
AND BAYOU FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAIVER AMOUNTS
CONCENTRATE. BY MONDAY MORNING THE HEAVIER RAINS MAY DEPART THE
AREA TO THE EAST BUT THE THREAT OF RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

I saw someone down thread admonish another commenter for bringing up climate change, saying this isn’t the time. I disagree. Strongly. This is precisely the time to talk about climate change and its impacts. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean this isn't the time to bring it up.
Quoting 608. NMPhotog:

I saw someone down thread admonish another commenter for bringing up climate change, saying this isn’t the time. I disagree. Strongly. This is precisely the time to talk about climate change and its impacts. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean this isn't the time to bring it up.


This isn't the time. The time will be AFTER the storm is gone. Right now all eyes are on those affected by this catastrophe.
Quoting 602. MAweatherboy1:

I'd estimate Patricia peaked at about 12-13z or so. CDO warming now likely due to slight shear increase and/or possible EWRC beginning. Probably won't make a huge difference, with impacts already starting. Will be tough for it to fall below Cat 5 status by landfall.


sorry but there is no EWRC in sight this storm is mantaining a powerfull eye wall

Recon on its way to Patricia, let's see if Patricia can challenge Tip's record of 870* mb.
Patricia Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop

controls are ACTIVE

click image for loop


Quoting 608. NMPhotog:

I saw someone down thread admonish another commenter for bringing up climate change, saying this isn’t the time. I disagree. Strongly. This is precisely the time to talk about climate change and its impacts. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean this isn't the time to bring it up.
With the sea surface temps this year, Can you imagine the season we would have had if not for the wind shear?
patrica steady at 200mph, 880mb. i see no way this could weaken before the landfall point (wherever that is)
Quoting 608. NMPhotog:

I saw someone down thread admonish another commenter for bringing up climate change, saying this isn’t the time. I disagree. Strongly. This is precisely the time to talk about climate change and its impacts. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean this isn't the time to bring it up.

Yep, back in 2005 those voices were even louder. It defies reason to think that warmer oceans (from climate change) won't enhance tropical storm development. Heat = energy. Now, you'll need perfect conditions for monsters like this, i.e. low to no shear, no dry air, etc.

However, all things being equal, if you heat up the oceans you are brewing a stronger cup of coffee. (to mix metaphors). Saying anything else borders on insanity.
I am not sure if it is just a wobble but Patricia seems to be leaning a bit more to the right at this point.
With the densely packed core Powerhouse Pat has, I don't see much if any weakening occurring right up to landfall. History has already been made with this storm, and unfortunately more (of the tragic kind) is yet to come...
My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the immediate and future path of this mega-cane, including those upstream who will no doubt have to deal with major flooding impacts in the days ahead.
617. JRRP
Location: 17.6°N 105.5°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph


OmG
Latest advisory just posted.

They left it at 200mph and 880mb officiallly.

N @ 10 officially for now, so apparently they think that's a wobble?

Oh well, we'll see they must still have confidence in previous round of models.

Have to play it safe so neither of the two largest population centers lets down their guard, so I get that...

...but IMO this is on a bee-line for Manzanillo.

I'll check back in about an hour from now.


The water ahead of it is about a half degree celsius warmer than what it's bee passing over this morning, so it's probably going to hold this intensity or intensify the whole way to land.
Quoting 372. pingon:

ROFL! yeah, all that praying is going yo help shrink this storm. GET REAL !




Quoting 609. Torito:



This isn't the time. The time will be AFTER the storm is gone. Right now all eyes are on those affected by this catastrophe.


Deaf ears, I'm afraid.

They want THEIR narrative heard all day, every day. As if we can solve it right now, before this hurricane KILLS many.
NOAA3 Mission #04 into PATRICIA
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

As of 14:59 UTC Oct 23, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 25.57°N 97.65°W
Bearing: 225° at 162 kt
Altitude: 4478 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 5 kt at 188°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1008.6 mb





Quoting 604. weathermanwannabe:

Found the primary site for the Mexican weather service which is up and running; all of the advisories and satt shots (the advisories are in Spanish...


Predicting winds greater than 80 km/hr and surf/waves to 4 meters within the next 3 hours.
Part timers beaucoup'


Sqawk, one, Sqwak 2...

: )
623. 7544
Wow are there any links to live coverage of this frok the local news or live web cams tia please post them
Quoting 615. FatPenguin:


Yep, back in 2005 those voices were even louder. It defies reason to think that warmer oceans (from climate change) won't enhance tropical storm development. Heat = energy. Now, you'll need perfect conditions for monsters like this, i.e. low to no shear, no dry air, etc.

However, all things being equal, if you heat up the oceans you are brewing a stronger cup of coffee. (to mix metaphors). Saying anything else borders on insanity.


I could not agree more.
Quoting 611. Envoirment:

Recon on its way to Patricia, let's see if Patricia can challenge Tip's record of 871 mb.


I think it's too close to the coast to have time for that, and most recent loops show her little less symmetrical, but she's surprised us before.
Quoting 611. Envoirment:

Recon on its way to Patricia, let's see if Patricia can challenge Tip's record of 871 mb.


870mb.
Quoting 608. NMPhotog:

I saw someone down thread admonish another commenter for bringing up climate change, saying this isn’t the time. I disagree. Strongly. This is precisely the time to talk about climate change and its impacts. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean this isn't the time to bring it up.


Rule of thumb here has always been that AGW/Climate Change takes a backburner when a storm of this magnitude is ongoing and lives are at stake. That is a narrative that will be brought up and discussed at length after Patricia is gone.
Eyewall replacement is not happening.

629. MahFL
Nasty :

"12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND".

Quoting 619. nash36:





Deaf ears, I'm afraid.

They want THEIR narrative heard all day, every day. As if we can solve it right now, before this hurricane KILLS many.


The climate change topic should be banned IMO when something like this is happening.. I know people who personally read this blog for information on the storm, they shouldn't have to dig through irrelevant stuff to find something they need, whether it be a link to a site or the latest information.
Quoting 608. NMPhotog:

I saw someone down thread admonish another commenter for bringing up climate change, saying this isn%u2019t the time. I disagree. Strongly. This is precisely the time to talk about climate change and its impacts. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean this isn't the time to bring it up.


No, it's not the right time to talk about climate change. The right time to talk about it is when the storm is done, not while the storm is active. We have other blogs for that. That's the point I'm trying to make. There's no narrative I'm trying to chalk up.

Also, I'm majoring in Physics. I've taken plenty of classes that have given me the tools to understand how our atmosphere works. I don't just believe climate change is happening, I know it is, so I don't know what "narrative" I'd be acting on to shut people up who want to discuss its impacts.

I'm sorry I ever brought it up now. I've gotten several WU mails now from users claiming I have some agenda to shut people up, but I genuinely don't understand why I've gotten such backlash for just suggesting to wait a day or two to have these discussions and focus on the storm itself? There were be plenty of blogs forthcoming that I'm sure will be dedicated to this topic.
If there is one saving grace in this extreme situ, it is that the Max winds are only 30-35 miles across, the 6-7nm eye included.

Its is a small Hurricane, with the best analog being Camille.


Quoting 592. Patrap:

1445 UTC Viz


hey pat was Camille that intense too?
Quoting 628. 1900hurricane:

Eyewall replacement is not happening.




Truely a shame, guess only way to slow this storm down now is too nuke it... :/

Of course I am not serious about that.
hope for weakening before landfall
Quoting 613. floridaT:


With the sea surface temps this year, Can you imagine the season we would have had if not for the wind shear?

The forecast for the Atlantic next year sounds threatening. Cant say I put to much thought into it, but there are indications that it could be a rough year..hope not.
Could you imagine if this thing was heading toward a populated US coastal city? Not nearly enough time to prepare and evacuate everyone, the loss of life would be catastrophic....

Hopefully the storm stays between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, this area is sparsely populated and everyone in that area should have plenty of time to evacuate.
Quoting 627. DeepSeaRising:



Rule of thumb here has always been that AGW/Climate Change takes a backburner when a storm of this magnitude is ongoing and lives are at stake. That is a narrative that will be brought up and discussed at length after Patricia is gone.


Reason for this is that it gets contentious and petty and pretty soon what's happening with Patricia will be lost in comments of a never ending back and forth. Many from Mexico are checking this site for information.
Quoting 635. IndividualThinker2:

Poor Atheists.

If the omnipotent Creator made this storm just wink out of existence in a half-second flat, I think you guys would soil yourselves far more than the storm itself scares you.




That's the direction you want to take this? I'm pretty sure you'll lose in this group.
Quoting 606. pensacolastorm:

Right on the coast at Manzanillo is a LP/natural gas tank farm with marine terminal, a gasoline/oil tank farm and a major power plant. And the international airport is literally right on the beach! This could be really bad for the long term too.


Manzanilla, with a population of over 100K is Mexico's busiest seaport. The economic impact, on Mexico, of a direct hit will be astronomical. I just wonder if there are any cruise ships or container ships that did not get out to sea ahead of this monster.
Quoting 635. IndividualThinker2:

Poor Atheists.

If the omnipotent Creator made this storm just wink out of existence in a half-second flat, I think you guys would soil yourselves far more than the storm itself scares you.




I'm confused, are you saying that you think this storm is going to just wink our of existence in a half-second? The only thing that may do that is if a large meteor landed smack dab in the middle of the storm, I rather take my chances with the hurricane.
Now over 90 minutes ago,

Josh Morgerman @iCyclone 31m31 minutes ago La Huerta, Jalisco

This is a shelter in San Mateo. No interior rooms, all glass. We explained why this is bad & suggested alternative


646. FOREX
Quoting 643. OldLeatherneck:



Manzanilla, with a population of over 100K is Mexico's busiest seaport. The economic impact, on Mexico, of a direct hit will be astronomical. I just wonder if there are any cruise ships or container ships that did not get out to sea ahead of this monster.
Since they were not in the cone, were they evacuated in that town? The movement of the storm might come closer to them that first thought.
Blub from a site related to Manzanillo news:

Editor's note: Officials have declared a state of emergency in dozens of municipalities in Mexico's Colima, Nayarit and Jalisco states, including the port of Manzanillo and the resort of Puerto Vallarta, as Hurricane Patricia moves toward a "potentially catastrophic landfall." There are more than 7.3 million inhabitants in Jalisco state and more than 255,000 in Puerto Vallarta municipality, according to the 2010 census, and more than 650,000 in Colima state, and 161,000 in Manzanillo. Yet, the @AP reports, in Puerto Vallarta, few people have been seen moving to evacuation shelters. - Tricia

Dr. Greg Postel basically just said that if Patricia keeps this motion it ill go right over Manzanillo.
Think that they meant to say 10:00 am in this post:



Quoting 645. Patrap:

Now over 90 minutes ago,

Josh Morgerman @iCyclone 31m31 minutes ago La Huerta, Jalisco

This is a shelter in San Mateo. No interior rooms, all glass. We explained why this is bad & suggested alternative



Thats a hurricane shelter.?.... would be much safer if I climbed a palm.
Quoting 627. DeepSeaRising:



Rule of thumb here has always been that AGW/Climate Change takes a backburner when a storm of this magnitude is ongoing and lives are at stake. That is a narrative that will be brought up and discussed at length after Patricia is gone.
There's not and never has been any such "rule of thumb". Again--and this seems far too obvious to need repeating, but apparently not--discussing the many reasons a particular cyclone developed, especially when that particular cyclone is the primary topic of the attached blog, is entirely appropriate and allowed.
Quoting 555. ChrisHamburg:



Nope the wind field of a tornado and a tropical cyclone are different, even if the wind speed is the same. A tornado has a far more turbulent wind field on the micro-scale and can lead to torsion vibration etc.. The wind field in a tropical cyclone is less turbulent on the micro-scale, more straight line and therefor the damage will differ. Wind speed isn't the only factor determine what damage will occur. Look for similar tropical cyclone as a reference, the tornado comparison is imho misleading.


Yeah you're absolutely correct. The reason for the EF revised scale was that it turns out it takes a lot less winds from a tornado to cause the same damage than originally thought.

Tornadoes produces violent winds not only in the horizontal, but in the vertical. This vertical component ex extremely crucial as it is able to "grab" "suck" surfaces unlike winds on the horizontal. We much remember that as wind is blowing by structures, a vast majority of the wind's energy is not transferred into structures but flow around them. As wind blows through human establishments, it's a complicated process as to which structures get the most energy. Obviously weaker structures will fail first, but structures of a equivalent strength will not surely fail equally, because wind energy may impact one harder than the other because of the chaotic nature of wind being a fluid.

With that being said, vertical component winds in a tornado or able to impact their energy into objects more effectively, and that can be easily understood when considering how the suction of vertical winds will impact a car or a building roof vs horizontal winds. It will take notably less wind in the vertical component to "grab hold" of such surfaces, causing cars to be easily thrown and roofs easily removed.

Not only that, as you pointed out, tornadic winds are very chaotic, in that there is rapid change in speed and direction that you wont generally see in a hurricane. Although there are exceptions. But the point is, it's been well tested that rapid change in speed and direction will also cause more stress and damage to structures than consistent or gradual speed and direction.


With that being said, it's worth noting that areas that have people pass through the calming eye are known for having reports of the backside of the eye causing more damage than the front, even though often the backside has a bit slower wind. It's likely due to the rapid change in speed and direction associated with the arrival of the backside. Recent examples I'm aware of are Wilma and Charley in Florida where the backside was reported consistently as doing more damage even though winds were a bit slower on the backside.
i wounder if any one in Manzanillo or in the hurricane warning area thinks that this is going too be a norml ever day hurricane that would be bad news if so

Manzanillo is a city, seat of Manzanillo Municipality, in the Mexican state of Colima. The city, located on the Pacific Ocean, contains Mexico's busiest port that is responsible for handling Pacific cargo for the Mexico City area. It is the largest producing municipality for the business sector and tourism in the state of Colima.

The city is known as the "Sailfish Capital of the World". Since 1957, it has hosted important national and international fishing competitions, such as the Dorsey Tournament, making it a very attractive fishing destination. Manzanillo has become one of the country's most important tourist resorts, and its excellent hotels and restaurants continue to meet the demands of both national and international tourism.

1500 UTC




Does going off the scale mean we need a new scale?

Hurricane Patricia:

Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph


Quoting 631. CybrTeddy:



No, it's not the right time to talk about climate change. The right time to talk about it is when the storm is done, not while the storm is active. We have other blogs for that. That's the point I'm trying to make. There's no narrative I'm trying to chalk up.

Also, I'm majoring in Physics. I've taken plenty of classes that have given me the tools to understand how our atmosphere works. I don't just believe climate change is happening, I know it is, so I don't know what "narrative" I'd be acting on to shut people up who want to discuss its impacts.

I'm sorry I ever brought it up now. I've gotten several WU mails now from users claiming I have some agenda to shut people up, but I genuinely don't understand why I've gotten such backlash for just suggesting to wait a day or two to have these discussions and focus on the storm itself? There were be plenty of blogs forthcoming that I'm sure will be dedicated to this topic.


I understand what you're saying, and agree to some point, but here is why now is the perfect time.

- More people are paying attention. In general, one of the reasons people, and Americans in particular, have been so slow to understand that global warming/climate change is not even a debatable point is that they tend to take their news in sound bites. I'm willing to bet serious money that a vast majority of Americans haven't taken 15 minutes to understand the greenhouse effect. Is it debatable "how much" an effect increasing CO2 has?

Absolutely.

However, for nearly 30 years we've debated "if there's a connection" even though the science of the greenhouse effect is widely accepted, and has been for over 100 years. If people took 20 minutes to research greenhouse effect, and they have average level of intelligence, especially as it relates to logic, then we would not have wasted the last 30 years. In other words, we should have listened to the Exxon scientists and their research from the 1970s and 80s.

So yes, now is a perfect time since most people seem to have the attention span of a kitten, but with less curiosity.
Tropical Storm to Cat 5 in 36 hours is incredible!
Quoting 651. hydrus:

Thats a hurricane shelter.?.... would be much safer if I climbed a palm.


No es bueno.
Quoting 651. hydrus:

Thats a hurricane shelter.?.... would be much safer if I climbed a palm.



i wound be safer with a storm this strong in the sea at this point has long has you have a boat wet suit on and a lifejacket on you be find now if your boat sinks you still be fine but swimming in the sea my be the safer place right now has the builds around you would be falling apart and higher ch of being killed
The Saffir-Simpson Scale is outmoded and a really bad thing . It was designed for wind loading on Structures,and does not relate surge values well at ALL.
Quoting 648. Camerooski:

Dr. Greg Postel basically just said that if Patricia keeps this motion it ill go right over Manzanillo.


Sure as Hell better just be a jog. Not feeling this is a jog. A direct hit on Manzanillo would be unimaginable.

Quoting 652. Neapolitan:

There's not and never has been any such "rule of thumb". Again--and this seems far too obvious to need repeating, but apparently not--discussing the many reasons a particular cyclone developed, especially when that particular cyclone is the primary topic of the attached blog, is entirely appropriate and allowed.
Also since this is not a CONUS event the blog speed is not that fast so anyone would be able to keep up.
Quoting 628. 1900hurricane:

Eyewall replacement is not happening.


Unfortunately, no, and Patricia may change our understanding about EWRC with a storm this intense. It seems possible that the eye and hurricane force wind field have remained so small because Patricia is walling itself off from all the normal environmental influences that cause the vast majority of strong storms to weaken before landfall, partly as a result of EWRC. I have no clue about the "strongest storm ever" and other superlatives I've seen today. I do know that, in my almost 70 years on earth, it's the strongest NHC responsibility storm I've ever seen.
Within the last hour from AP: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/15762e3e9f9f4c3281 34706754a0eac8/mexicos-pacific-coast-braces-monste r-hurricane-patricia


Evacuations were under way in Puerto Vallarta Friday, with officials taking people to 14 shelters, mostly in schools, according to the Jalisco government's webpage. Exact numbers of those evacuated were not immediately available, and few people were seen going to them.

Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio told Mexico's Radio Formula Friday morning that officials are especially worried about the safety of people in the tourist resort of Puerto Vallarta, in Jalisco state, and in the nearby community of Bahia de Banderas, in Nayarit state.

"We need people to understand the magnitude of the hurricane, it is a devastating hurricane, the biggest one ever registered," he said.

Osorio added that the government had deployed soldiers and federal police agents to help out, but has provided no numbers.

Roberto Ramirez, the director of Mexico's National Water Commission, which includes the nation's meteorological service, said that Hurricane Patricia will be powerful enough to lift up automobiles, destroy homes that are not sturdily built with cement and steel and will be able to drag along people caught outside when the storm strikes.

Ramirez said that the people in the most danger from the hurricane will be those on the coast, especially in the state of Jalisco.

The lobby of the Sheraton Hotel in Puerto Vallarta was bustling Friday morning, with a long line of people forming to check out. More than 900 guests had rooms at the hotel the previous evening, but many wanted to get out of town before the storm arrived.

Sandra Rojas and her husband, a veterinarian from San Jose, Costa Rica, were among those trying to leave. After loading their cars, they were going to drive to the Jalisco state capital of Guadalajara to plan their next move.

The hotel is saying that nothing is going to happen," said Rojas. "But it's nature. Anything can happen.

In Puerto Vallarta on Thursday, restaurants and stores taped or boarded-up windows, and residents raced to stores for last-minute purchases ahead of the storm.

The Hurricane Center in Miami warned that preparations should be rushed to completion, saying the storm could cause coastal flooding, destructive waves and flash floods.

"This is an extremely dangerous, potentially catastrophic hurricane," center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen said.

Feltgen said Patricia also poses problems for Texas. Forecast models indicate that after the storm breaks up over land, remnants of its tropical moisture will likely combine with and contribute to heavy rainfall that is already soaking Texas independently of the hurricane, he said.

"It's only going to make a bad situation worse," he said.

The National Weather Service said a flash flood watch would be in effect through Sunday morning for Dallas Fort-Worth, Austin and San Antonio, Texas.

A coastal food warning was in effect through Friday night in Corpus Christi. Galveston was under a coastal flood advisory until Saturday night.

By early Friday, Patricia's maximum sustained winds had increased to 200 mph (325 kph) — a Category 5 storm, the highest designation on the Saffir-Simpson scale used to quantify a hurricane's wind strength.

Patricia was centered about 145 miles (235 kilometers) southwest of the Pacific resort of Manzanillo early Friday and was moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph) on a projected track to come ashore between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta sometime Friday afternoon or evening.

Some fluctuations in intensity were forecast before then, but the Hurricane Center said it was expected to be an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 storm when it made landfall.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Mexican coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, a stretch that includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A broader area was under hurricane watch, tropical storm warning or tropical storm watch.

The Hurricane Center said Patricia was expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 20 inches in some locations. Tropical storm conditions were expected to reach land late Thursday or early Friday, complicating any remaining preparation work at that point.

"We are calm," said Gabriel Lopez, a worker at Las Hadas Hotel in Manzanillo. "We don't know what direction (the storm) will take, but apparently it's headed this way. ... If there is an emergency we will take care of the people. There are rooms that are not exposed to wind or glass."

___

Associated Press writers Peter Orsi and E. Eduardo Castillo in Mexico City contributed to this report.

Quoting 657. JeffreyLXV:

Does going off the scale mean we need a new scale?

Hurricane Patricia:

Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph



Catastrophic should be a clear enough indication without having to add another category to the scale...When they say catastrophic, that should in any language sum it up.

Quoting 657. JeffreyLXV:

Does going off the scale mean we need a new scale?

Hurricane Patricia:

Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph



To steal a line from Jaws " We're gonna need a bigger scale"
Wow the Hurricane hunter just said Patricia is/was 30 millibars lower than what they expected ... HOLY!
Quoting 664. DeepSeaRising:



Sure as Hell better just be a jog. Not feeling this is a jog. A direct hit on Manzanillo would be unimaginable.
It would . Manzanillo is basically a bay..
Quoting 664. DeepSeaRising:



Sure as Hell better just be a jog. Not feeling this is a jog. A direct hit on Manzanillo would be unimaginable.


Manzanillo is going to be annihilated.
Ships near and around Patricia

credit:sailwx
I've been searching for a storm feed forever. The "Weather" channel isn't doing any kind of storm mode because it's not a US landfall, correct? Anyone have a feed?
676. FOREX
Quoting 664. DeepSeaRising:



Sure as Hell better just be a jog. Not feeling this is a jog. A direct hit on Manzanillo would be unimaginable.
Not looking like a jog.
Quoting 667. weathermanwannabe:

Within the last hour from AP: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/15762e3e9f 9f4c3281 34706754a0eac8/mexicos-pacific-coast-braces-monste r-hurricane-patricia


Evacuations were under way in Puerto Vallarta Friday, with officials taking people to 14 shelters, mostly in schools, according to the Jalisco government's webpage. Exact numbers of those evacuated were not immediately available, and few people were seen going to them.

Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio told Mexico's Radio Formula Friday morning that officials are especially worried about the safety of people in the tourist resort of Puerto Vallarta, in Jalisco state, and in the nearby community of Bahia de Banderas, in Nayarit state.

"We need people to understand the magnitude of the hurricane, it is a devastating hurricane, the biggest one ever registered," he said.

Osorio added that the government had deployed soldiers and federal police agents to help out, but has provided no numbers.

Roberto Ramirez, the director of Mexico's National Water Commission, which includes the nation's meteorological service, said that Hurricane Patricia will be powerful enough to lift up automobiles, destroy homes that are not sturdily built with cement and steel and will be able to drag along people caught outside when the storm strikes.

Ramirez said that the people in the most danger from the hurricane will be those on the coast, especially in the state of Jalisco.

The lobby of the Sheraton Hotel in Puerto Vallarta was bustling Friday morning, with a long line of people forming to check out. More than 900 guests had rooms at the hotel the previous evening, but many wanted to get out of town before the storm arrived.

Sandra Rojas and her husband, a veterinarian from San Jose, Costa Rica, were among those trying to leave. After loading their cars, they were going to drive to the Jalisco state capital of Guadalajara to plan their next move.

The hotel is saying that nothing is going to happen," said Rojas. "But it's nature. Anything can happen.

In Puerto Vallarta on Thursday, restaurants and stores taped or boarded-up windows, and residents raced to stores for last-minute purchases ahead of the storm.

The Hurricane Center in Miami warned that preparations should be rushed to completion, saying the storm could cause coastal flooding, destructive waves and flash floods.

"This is an extremely dangerous, potentially catastrophic hurricane," center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen said.

Feltgen said Patricia also poses problems for Texas. Forecast models indicate that after the storm breaks up over land, remnants of its tropical moisture will likely combine with and contribute to heavy rainfall that is already soaking Texas independently of the hurricane, he said.

"It's only going to make a bad situation worse," he said.

The National Weather Service said a flash flood watch would be in effect through Sunday morning for Dallas Fort-Worth, Austin and San Antonio, Texas.

A coastal food warning was in effect through Friday night in Corpus Christi. Galveston was under a coastal flood advisory until Saturday night.

By early Friday, Patricia's maximum sustained winds had increased to 200 mph (325 kph) — a Category 5 storm, the highest designation on the Saffir-Simpson scale used to quantify a hurricane's wind strength.

Patricia was centered about 145 miles (235 kilometers) southwest of the Pacific resort of Manzanillo early Friday and was moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph) on a projected track to come ashore between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta sometime Friday afternoon or evening.

Some fluctuations in intensity were forecast before then, but the Hurricane Center said it was expected to be an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 storm when it made landfall.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Mexican coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, a stretch that includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A broader area was under hurricane watch, tropical storm warning or tropical storm watch.

The Hurricane Center said Patricia was expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 20 inches in some locations. Tropical storm conditions were expected to reach land late Thursday or early Friday, complicating any remaining preparation work at that point.

"We are calm," said Gabriel Lopez, a worker at Las Hadas Hotel in Manzanillo. "We don't know what direction (the storm) will take, but apparently it's headed this way. ... If there is an emergency we will take care of the people. There are rooms that are not exposed to wind or glass."

___

Associated Press writers Peter Orsi and E. Eduardo Castillo in Mexico City contributed to this report.





for get about the shelters they this need to get ever one out of town
I have visions of hurricane Charley in my mind right now. This thing has turned right and will be onshore earlier, stronger and further south than some are going to be prepared for.
Manzanillo looks to be in serious trouble.
What do you think wave heights are in the eye wall? 80 feet? There must be some incredible weather happening. Things not ever seen before.
NOAA3 Mission #04 into PATRICIA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 15:29 UTC Oct 23, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 23.47°N 99.27°W
Bearing: 225° at 326 kt
Altitude: 6153 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 217°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A





682. TX2FL
How the He** can a hotel be telling their guests "nothing is going to happen". Do they not remember what Wilma did in Cancun? That should be lesson enough. I don't understand how people can be so stupid. I can't even imagine if this thing was in the warm 'tongue' of water in the GOM.
Quoting 643. OldLeatherneck:



Manzanilla, with a population of over 100K is Mexico's busiest seaport. The economic impact, on Mexico, of a direct hit will be astronomical. I just wonder if there are any cruise ships or container ships that did not get out to sea ahead of this monster.

I've checked marinetraffic.com now and earlier and it says: no big ship in the port right now. Last one which left Manzanillo a couple of hours earlier was a bulk carrier named "Dauntless". Fortunately not dauntless enough to stay around and wait for Patricia.
Some ships farther out on the way to Manzanillo but I guess they won't try to mess with a Cat 5.
(Edit to correct the name of the city).
Quoting 656. Patrap:

1500 UTC





Yeah..Thats no jog..It has turned sooner than expected.
Quoting 657. JeffreyLXV:

Does going off the scale mean we need a new scale?

Hurricane Patricia:

Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph



I guess this will be brought up numerous times today. The reason the wind speed of a cat 5 is listed as "> or = 157 mph" on a correct chart (yours isn't) is that it means greater than 157 mph or more. Once we get there, where would you propose category 6 should end...or category 7 should start? It's the same reason why tornado intensity ends at EF5. Once you get winds above that level, it's only a matter of which pieces of rubble get turned over more.
As incredible as it may be, all my numbers coming in currently show,..deepening.


Quoting 662. Tazmanian:




i wound be safer with a storm this strong in the sea at this point has long has you have a boat wet suit on and a lifejacket on you be find now if your boat sinks you still be fine but swimming in the sea my be the safer place right now has the builds around you would be falling apart and higher ch of being killed

From what little I've read about the behavior of the sea surface in strong wind, it might be difficult to define an air/sea boundary under the eye wall of Patricia. In other words, no air breathing organism could survive.
Patricia is going no where near the official track.
This storm is a perfect example of the classic forecasting nightmare.........People expecting a "regular" hurricane a few days out and the storm pulls a rapid intensification to a Cat 5 from one day to the next on approach.........The "Andrew" for this part of Mexico with total devastation from the eye wall at the landfall location.
Quoting 652. Neapolitan:

There's not and never has been any such "rule of thumb". Again--and this seems far too obvious to need repeating, but apparently not--discussing the many reasons a particular cyclone developed, especially when that particular cyclone is the primary topic of the attached blog, is entirely appropriate and allowed.


I feel you Nea and you know I am a stanch defender of the truth on AGW, and if we could have a constructive conversation about climate change and how it feeds directly into what's happening; then that would be great. Just for curiosities sake, who would rather AGW not be discussed at length right now as one of the strongest storms in history is baring down on populated areas and hundreds if not thousands are likely to die?
Quoting 679. Plaza23:

What do you think wave heights are in the eye wall? 80 feet? There must be some incredible weather happening. Things not ever seen before.
Actually when wind speed on the water is over 120 kts, the sea tends to flatten out...
@ pcola57-

thanks, I'm watching the lumber at the edge of the waves, and the fence on the right. It honestly seems kinda calm there...
Quoting 686. Patrap:

As incredible as it may be, all my numbers coming in currently show,..deepening.



Yep..The NHC said that the numbers favor strengthening.
What's the population in the area of landfall? I hope they are prepared and by that I mean, I hope they left. and are hunkered down somewhere else.
Note the green color darkening...in the WV loop.


696. FOREX
Does the NHC or Mexico issue the Cone and Watches and Warning for Mexico?
880 mb :( Will be keeping those in the way in mind.
If your in Manzanilla, exit now..to the East
Quoting 696. FOREX:

Does the NHC or Mexico issue the Cone and Watches and Warning for Mexico?



If you read the NHC Home page..you would know.
Quoting 694. Dakster:

What's the population in the area of landfall? I hope they are prepared and by that I mean, I hope they left. and are hunkered down somewhere else.


The Mexican state of Colima has a population of around 673,000. Neighboring Jalisco has a population of about 7.5 million, though I believe it's mostly inland.
Quoting 686. Patrap:

As incredible as it may be, all my numbers coming in currently show,..deepening.





Cat 6 ... may be the new scale amendment
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
Table of global TCs with max winds >=165 kts since 1970. Patricia in 1st, followed by Haiyan, then Allen & Tip.
703. 7544
Quoting 692. aquak9:

@ pcola57-

thanks, I'm watching the lumber at the edge of the waves, and the fence on the right. It honestly seems kinda calm there...


found this one still looking for live news station there
Link
Quoting 694. Dakster:

What's the population in the area of landfall? I hope they are prepared and by that I mean, I hope they left. and are hunkered down somewhere else.


Depends on where it makes landfall; as noted below, Manzanilla is a port town with about 161,000.

There is no reasonable preparation for a Category 5 eye wall; the best hope is that folks evacuated inland from the coast to avoid the storm surge/wind damage (then hope and pray that the eyewall doesn't follow you inland to where you went to avoid the storm surge).
705. jpsb
Quoting 662. Tazmanian:




i wound be safer with a storm this strong in the sea at this point has long has you have a boat wet suit on and a lifejacket on you be find now if your boat sinks you still be fine but swimming in the sea my be the safer place right now has the builds around you would be falling apart and higher ch of being killed


Maybe a sail boat but swimming is not a good idea. Nothing but white water to swim in.
Quoting 683. barbamz:


I've checked marinetraffic.com now and earlier and it says: no big ship in the port right now. Last one which left Manzanilla a couple of hours earlier was a bulk carrier named "Dauntless". Fortunately not dauntless enough to stay around and wait for Patricia.
Some ships farther out on the way to Manzanilla but I guess they won't try to mess with a Cat 5.
The port has been closed to incoming traffic since last night. Every commercial ship and the Mexican Navy "destroyer" Comodoro Manuel Azueta, which is a WWII ex-US Navy destroyer escort used as a training ship, have left. Since Patricia is a storm with such a small hurricane wind radius and the path is reasonably certain, it won't take many miles north to escape the worst effects, unlike Joaquin. What remains of Mexico's most important Pacific coast port after landfall remains to be seen.
707. 900MB
Yikes:

"In the 2005 census, the city of Manzanillo had a population of 110,728 and in 2010 its municipality had 161,420"
No more deepening i hope.
Sitting in Bratislava, Slavakia watching this monster. Internet is spotty. Prayers up to everyone in the path of this storm.
Quoting 704. weathermanwannabe:



Depends on where it makes landfall; as noted below, Manzanilla is a port town with about 161,000.
A small correction. The name of the city and port is Manzanillo.
711. MahFL
"The lobby of the Sheraton Hotel in Puerto Vallarta was bustling Friday morning, with a long line of people forming to check out"

That's too late to check out, the cane is 10 hours away from landfall...
Quoting 703. 7544:



found this one still looking for live news station there
Link


Those people should be long gone if they had any sense ...
I cannot believe how fast this storm strengthened. This is unprecedented...but perhaps becoming the new normal? SSTs are off the charts and gave Patricia all the juice she needed.

Residents of Manzanillo and surrounding areas are going to need help
Latest 15 minute GOES update shot from the Mexican site:

880 millibars = flight level 210 unusable.   three lower 877 and flight level 220 unusable . wow
Good news! Convection is warming, we will see some weakening soon!!

Link here`s a live stream on youtube to watch the hurricane coming in
There is a lot about this weather phenomenon known by the military. After all, a submarine may surface and patrol the entire eye area of the hurricane, even approach the eyewall before submerging. Submerged at a safe depth it can send probes to the surface in the areas of highest wind velocity. There is a world of intelligence held outside public access. Yes, above 120 knots, around the wall, the water is flat.
Quoting 696. FOREX:

Does the NHC or Mexico issue the Cone and Watches and Warning for Mexico?


NHC covers the Atlantic and east Pacific
Quoting 693. hydrus:

Yep..The NHC said that the numbers favor strengthening.
Although the only thing that really matters is the recon numbers, not ADT numbers now. Estimates are only needed when there's no measured data, which is why it's hard to compare the most heavily instrumented major hurricane ever with other storms that never have a recon flight.
Does anyone know how to describe what 880 MB pressure feels like? Would you be able to feel a drastic difference being in the calm eye of a hurricane, vs being in 1020 MB high pressure?
I just heard on the news.there could be a tidal surge of 40 feet,possibly higher at landfall...that along with 200mph winds..nothing would be left standing where she comes ashore,and add to this..just inland a ways you have a mountain range..so all the rain etc will be causing a tremendous backwash of water and mud in landslides...this is a disaster of record proportions there..prayers for those folks.
Its about 11 am in Mexico right now.
Looking at the charts fro movement of the storm it looks like landfall will be in about 12 hours time, so all night in the dark and probably without electric to endure before morning lights.
The prospects look about on par with Hell at the moment for anybody near the eye at landfall.
725. beell
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

VALID 12Z MON OCT 26 2015 - 12Z FRI OCT 30 2015

THE 00Z/23 AND 06Z/23 OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE ACROSS THE NATION--PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES--THAN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE. TOOK THE CUE FROM THIS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE AND WEIGHTED THE FORECAST DECIDEDLY IN THE MORE ROBUSTLY REPRESENTED ENSEMBLE CAMP, WHICH KEEPS THE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SEPARATE FROM AMPLIFYING WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHETHER THE GULF COMPLEX IS ABLE TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A REAL WILD CARD, BUT MORE OF A POSSIBILITY THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONSIDERING PATRICIA'S INTENSITY AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CORE AT LEAST PARTLY SURVIVING THE TREK ACROSS THE BIG MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD SHOULD FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER MIDWEST WAVE, INCLUDING THE MOISTURE-FLUX AREAS NORTH OF THE GULF LOW. THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO TURN WETTER, WITH A GENERALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OOZING INTO THOSE AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF A NORTH PACIFIC ENERGIZED BY WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONAL ENERGY.

CISCO
Quoting 718. franckinator:

There is a lot about this weather phenomenon known by the military. After all, a submarine may surface and patrol the entire eye area of the hurricane, even approach the eyewall before submerging. Submerged at a safe depth it can send probes to the surface in the areas of highest wind velocity. There is a world of intelligence held outside public access. Yes, above 120 knots, around the wall, the water is flat.
I have photos taken from recon planes from the 50's and 60,s showing sea conditions and wind speeds from 75 kts to 130 kts from 1500 ft ....its clear what happens over 120.
I'm at a loss right now. Truly historic storm, and terrifying for those in the path. I dearly hope those in the path are out of there. Can't understate the direness of this.
Quoting 719. win1gamegiantsplease:



NHC covers the Atlantic and east Pacific
The Mexican Meteorological Service issues the actual watches and warnings for Mexican territory in consultation with the NHC. The NHC provides tracking, recon, and cone information.
Quoting 695. Patrap:

Note the green color darkening...in the WV loop.





Yeah cloud tops have warmed slightly, but it still has cloud tops colder than most category 4 and 5 hurricanes, and it actually looks to be improving on water vapor as you've showed. The eye looks to be improving on symmetry even more so as well. It may not have peaked just yet, but it's probably near peak, or so we hope.
Quoting 716. pipelines:

Good news! Convection is warming, we will see some weakening soon!!



correction: we may see some weakening soon.

there's no certainty
Quoting 725. beell:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

VALID 12Z MON OCT 26 2015 - 12Z FRI OCT 30 2015

THE 00Z/23 AND 06Z/23 OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE ACROSS THE NATION--PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES--THAN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE. TOOK THE CUE FROM THIS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE AND WEIGHTED THE FORECAST DECIDEDLY IN THE MORE ROBUSTLY REPRESENTED ENSEMBLE CAMP, WHICH KEEPS THE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SEPARATE FROM AMPLIFYING WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHETHER THE GULF COMPLEX IS ABLE TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A REAL WILD CARD, BUT MORE OF A POSSIBILITY THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONSIDERING PATRICIA'S INTENSITY AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CORE AT LEAST PARTLY SURVIVING THE TREK ACROSS THE BIG MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD SHOULD FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER MIDWEST WAVE, INCLUDING THE MOISTURE-FLUX AREAS NORTH OF THE GULF LOW. THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO TURN WETTER, WITH A GENERALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OOZING INTO THOSE AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF A NORTH PACIFIC ENERGIZED BY WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONAL ENERGY.

CISCO
Greetings Beell..not so pretty a forecast.
Here is a cam from Ixtapa showing the building surf: Link

and one from Colimas showing the flooding starting: Link
Quoting 722. Plaza23:

Does anyone know how to describe what 880 MB pressure feels like? Would you be able to feel a drastic difference being in the calm eye of a hurricane, vs being in 1020 MB high pressure?
I remember folks saying that Andrew sucked the water right outta the toilets.
Quoting 730. Jedkins01:



Yeah cloud tops have warmed slightly, but it still has cloud tops colder than most category 4 and 5 hurricanes, and it actually looks to be improving on water vapor as you've showed. The eye looks to be improving on symmetry even more so as well. It may not have peaked just yet, but it's probably near peak, or so we hope.
Plus it has moved away from the bit of shear that may have had an effect on the previous forecast track.
Quoting 716. pipelines:

Good news! Convection is warming, we will see some weakening soon!!




Mix that with Microwave imagery, she's undergoing an Eyewall replacement cycle. it's only temporary.
Quoting 703. 7544:



found this one still looking for live news station there
Link

This one is in Cancun, nowhere near Patricia.

Here a cam in Ixtapa, farther south where Patricia already has passed, but it shows huge waves.
As of 15:49 UTC Oct 23, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 22.63°N 100.85°W
Bearing: 236° at 410 kt
Altitude: 6457 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 30 kt at 190°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A




Quoting 718. franckinator:

There is a lot about this weather phenomenon known by the military. After all, a submarine may surface and patrol the entire eye area of the hurricane, even approach the eyewall before submerging. Submerged at a safe depth it can send probes to the surface in the areas of highest wind velocity. There is a world of intelligence held outside public access. Yes, above 120 knots, around the wall, the water is flat.


Ya, who is the blogger here who lives in the Cayman Islands? When the hurricane swept the island the comment was, you could no longer tell the surface of the water because the windswept froth merged with the sky. Would definitely blow the tops off the waves.
The best hope for the folks who live along the threatened coastal areas is probably evacuation inland by bus or other road means (on the chance that the eye wall impacts their particular location)........Given the heavy rains along with the potential mudslides/flash flooding threat, I do not know enough about Mexican topography in the Manzanillo region to even begin to make a guess at "where" the folks/buses should go to wait out the storm...............Probably towards the E (as suggested by Pat earlier).........SE.
Quoting 735. aquak9:

I remember folks saying that Andrew sucked the water right outta the toilets.


Proof [Link], I believe it's called the Bernoulli Effect.
Quoting 707. 900MB:

Yikes:

"In the 2005 census, the city of Manzanillo had a population of 110,728 and in 2010 its municipality had 161,420"

Cant help but think that there might be quite a few shanty towns made up from lightweight materials housing a very large amount of the population there.
Its probable that the extra 60,000, or in fact probably a lot more have safe housing.
Quoting 735. aquak9:

I remember folks saying that Andrew sucked the water right outta the toilets.
It did..Wind was so strong that concrete telephone poles had pits in the from the rain..Palms lost there bark.
Quoting 737. SSL1441:



Mix that with Microwave imagery, she's undergoing an Eyewall replacement cycle. it's only temporary.



there is no Eyewall replacement cycle going on this i would not turst the Microwave imagery right now this storm is so strong that the Microwave imagery may not see that this is no way that this is going under a Eyewall replacement cycle
Quoting 718. franckinator:

There is a lot about this weather phenomenon known by the military. After all, a submarine may surface and patrol the entire eye area of the hurricane, even approach the eyewall before submerging. Submerged at a safe depth it can send probes to the surface in the areas of highest wind velocity. There is a world of intelligence held outside public access. Yes, above 120 knots, around the wall, the water is flat.
Other than the fact we have submarines and intelligence we don't share with the world, you're completely wrong on every other assertion.
12Z

Wind (1 min. avg.):

175 knots (~201 mph | 90 m/s | 324 km/h)

Gusts:

215 knots (~247 mph | 111 m/s | 398 km/h)

Pressure:

880 mb (25.99 inHg | 880 hPa)

Quoting 740. Patrap:

As of 15:49 UTC Oct 23, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 22.63°N 100.85°W
Bearing: 236° at 410 kt
Altitude: 6457 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 30 kt at 190°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A





When they say N/A for extrapolated sea pressure.. is that because they can't, or they haven't bothered to try yet?
Quoting 710. sar2401:

A small correction. The name of the city and port is Manzanillo.
picky,picky SAR.

Quoting 730. Jedkins01:



Yeah cloud tops have warmed slightly, but it still has cloud tops colder than most category 4 and 5 hurricanes, and it actually looks to be improving on water vapor as you've showed. The eye looks to be improving on symmetry even more so as well. It may not have peaked just yet, but it's probably near peak, or so we hope.
dosnt the sun warming the atmosphere have an effect?
Quoting 722. Plaza23:

Does anyone know how to describe what 880 MB pressure feels like? Would you be able to feel a drastic difference being in the calm eye of a hurricane, vs being in 1020 MB high pressure?

Plane flight. Pressure inside a normal airliner goes down to 700-800 hPa. Hurts the ears when it rises on landing. Feeling the approach or going away of a hurricane centre won't be that much, pressure still falls/rises too gradually to feel that much.
Driving up a mountain pass not too fast might just give a small sensation. 880 hPa is not very much over a km above sea level.
Maybe a tornado would give a pop in the ear, which would be a least of worries.
Rapidly warming cloud tops, proximity to land, possible EWRC, no question Patricia is about to undergo some weakening. Mexico will probably be hit by a cat 5 but not a 200 mph "Cat 6" luckily! This is not the keys, or the Bahamas, or even the giant sandbar known as peninsular Florida. Mexico has very high mountains right off the coast here, there is no possible way a storm could maintain sub 900 mb intensity all the way to landfall.
Quoting 727. Stoopid1:

I'm at a loss right now. Truly historic storm, and terrifying for those in the path. I dearly hope those in the path are out of there. Can't understate the direness of this.


I'm with you-I'm praying for these folks. My heart hurts for what they are about to endure.
NOAA Satellites Verified account ‏@NOAASatellites 2m2 minutes ago

.@NASANPP VIIRS imagery of #Patricia. Landfall as a Catagory 5 storm expected within 12hrs. http://go.usa.gov/3h6Jd

Quoting 734. tropicofcancer:

Here is a cam from Ixtapa showing the building surf: Link

and one from Colimas showing the flooding starting: Link
Both links already dead from saturation.
757. 900MB
La Manzanillo Beach webcam. Not sure exactly where in Manzanillo this is located:

http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html
Map of Mexico
Quoting 750. StAugSurf:

picky,picky SAR.
Most Mexicans appreciate getting the name of their city right.
Quoting 753. pipelines:

This is not the keys, or the Bahamas, or even the giant sandbar known as peninsular Florida. Mexico has very high mountains right off the coast here, there is no possible way a storm could maintain sub 900 mb intensity all the way to landfall.


There was probably a time when a 200 mph hurricane seemed impossible too.
Blades of grass where sent through palm trees too.

Pictures of 2x4x8 piece of wood getting stuck halfway through a tree happened as well. At those speeds almost all buildings will be down to the foundation. Even the new strict Florida building codes are not designed for a 200 mph storm.
Evacuation of an area - especially on short notice - is simply not a possibility for most people in the world, for any number of reasons, including lack of transportation and financial difficulties. Shelters are really the only option.
Not sure what Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson can add later on today except for the total devastation that the core of the storm will have at the land fall location.....................Every jog that keeps the wall away from critical infrastructure (for the recovery phase) will be a small blessing.
I think Patricia is strengthening if anything, the eye has become more defined, and the core has gotten more circular...
Quoting 579. IndividualThinker2:



Officially I think so.

Right now, I'm pretty sure Labor Day 1935 is still the official landfall record, but there were unconfirmed claims that Cyclone Monica hit land stronger. It's hard to tell though because western and central pacific and south pacific storms have a different environmental pressure, so they have to be about 30mb stronger to be comparable dvorak number.


I guess so. Haiyan "officialy" made landfall with a pressure of 895 mbar. But that's derived from 100% satellite estimates.

Same goes to Monica.
Quoting 757. 900MB:

La Manzanillo Beach webcam. Not sure exactly where in Manzanillo this is located:

http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html


La Manzanilla, not La Manzanillo. It is a small fishing village located one hour north of Manzanillo, according to Wikipedia.
Quoting 765. Camerooski:

I think Patricia is strengthening if anything, the eye has become more defined, and the core has gotten more circular...


The eye is becoming wider, this is a sign of weakening.
Quoting 680. pcola57:

Here's the Cam that someone found and shared for those who missed it..albeit a small area of vision..It does show the waves and is on the main beach..for those who may be interested..


Blocked by web filter as pornography here. Be wary of clicking on the link at work, lest you get a visit from your friendly IT guys...
Dr. Masters usually post a new blog with current conditions before landfall..I don't know Spanish but someone needs to post that the situation is dire and don't go back until the all clear is given..many casualties are possible..
such a beautiful place that will never be the same after this storm.
Quoting 770. pcola57:

Dr. Masters usually post a new blog with current conditions before landfall..I don't know Spanish but someone needs to post that the situation is dire and don't go back until the all clear is given..many casualties are possi8ble..
The Mexican government is the competent authority that handles warnings and evacuations. They are well aware of how dangerous this storm is. While Dr. Masters will have good information when he posts a new blog, the Mexican authorities are not dependent on his information for what to do next.
Pat, looks like a "slammer"..Keep posting..And TY.. :)
Quoting 759. sar2401:

Most Mexicans appreciate getting the name of their city right.
good point!
Quoting 763. LesBonsTemps:

Evacuation of an area - especially on short notice - is simply not a possibility for most people in the world, for any number of reasons, including lack of transportation and financial difficulties. Shelters are really the only option.


While true and I agree. Just how many 200mph rated shelters are there? The storm surge could be huge too.
Quoting 619. nash36:





Deaf ears, I'm afraid.

They want THEIR narrative heard all day, every day. As if we can solve it right now, before this hurricane KILLS many.

Alright. I won't counter this again or mention the censorship on cause.
I will, too, happily leave the narrative to Patricia.
Quoting 769. Icantthinkofausernam:



Blocked by web filter as pornography here. Be wary of clicking on the link at work, lest you get a visit from your friendly IT guys...
Your IT guys need to adjust their filter. It's just a beach webcam in Manzanillo.
Quoting 768. pipelines:



The eye is becoming wider, this is a sign of weakening.
I was hoping for eyewall regeneration..Maybe there is a shot some decent weakening before landfall..Even if it does, it may still be a 5.
Quoting 758. bigwes6844:

Map of Mexico


Just after the coast on the northerly track is Guadalajara a city of 1.5 million people and they will be getting a vast amount of rainfall.
I suspect that there might be a lot of bad news from the Guadalajara region as well after this event.

Link
On the present course, it looks like Manzanillo is in the bullseye.

Name: MANZANILLO
Updated: Oct 23 8:45 AM PDT
Mesonet: HADS
Temp:80° F27° C
Dew Point:69° F20° C
Relh:69 %
Wind:ENE@10 mph 16 kph
Gust:17 mph
Quoting 772. sar2401:

The Mexican government is the competent authority that handles warnings and evacuations. They are well aware of how dangerous this storm is. While Dr. Masters will have good information when he posts a new blog, the Mexican authorities are not dependent on his information for what to do next.


Thanks for that bit of wisdom added..I agree that your comment is necessary..
At a moment like this info is precious commodity..
Quoting 652. Neapolitan:

There's not and never has been any such "rule of thumb". Again--and this seems far too obvious to need repeating, but apparently not--discussing the many reasons a particular cyclone developed, especially when that particular cyclone is the primary topic of the attached blog, is entirely appropriate and allowed.
I love it when people type "lives are at stake" and berate others for discussing other weather or climate issues on a weather blog from thousands of miles away; and with no way of helping those who are about to be affected. As if our collective thinking about them will make a difference in the situation... It helps to read it in the Maude Flanders' shrill: "WIll someone please think of the children!!!!"
Quoting 777. sar2401:

Your IT guys need to adjust their filter. It's just a beach webcam in Manzanillo.


Depends. Is it a nude beach?
We’re gonna need a bigger barometer.
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 17:35:40 N Lon : 105:26:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.2 / 884.4mb/176.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.1 7.9 7.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : 5.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.3 degrees


8.1, 7.9, 7.9


Possible weakening, possible fluctuation.

IR shows something changed in upper layers. I haven't looked at shear closely yet, but it's highest cloud tops got split in half in the past few frames while I was gone.

Strangely, pressure is analyzed lower.

However, margin of error in estimate is I believe 15/-7 so it doesn't necessarily mean anything's actually changed from frame to frame.
Jeff Morgermann and icyclone team was near Puerto Vallarta. As of a half hour ago they started heading S. I'm guessing landfall will be pretty much a dead hit on Melaque.
Quoting 775. Dakster:



While true and I agree. Just how many 200mph rated shelters are there? The storm surge could be huge too.
There have been evacuations going on since yesterday afternoon. Last I read, the number between PV and Manzanillo should be at about 65,000 by now. I don't know that any above ground shelter will do much good if you are unlucky enough to be in that 30 mile circle of the highest winds, but most shelter will still be better than being on the beach, since storm surge in Manzanillo will be a much bigger problem than winds in most places.
When the wind is high enough to flatten waves and turn seawater to mist, I wonder how much that plays into rapid development of a storm? That alone must be providing incredible surface area for evaporation and heat transfer into the atmosphere, probably many times higher than areas in lower wind speeds.

Good thing there isn't a lot of general vertical lift to bring that mist up even higher than it does...
Is there any information on how this plays into storm intensity?
Is that really a camera in Manzanillo? Those winds are barely moving dead palm fronds.
Quoting 778. hydrus:

I was hoping for eyewall regeneration..Maybe there is a shot some decent weakening before landfall..Even if it does, it may still be a 5.


Even if it does weaken, and so far no one has suggested that officially (so let us not speculate please), I cannot see this NOT being a category 5 on landfall, it is already 40+++ miles beyond the limit for Cat5.
With an evening landfall, and overnight trek inland, one can only hope at this point that all in harms way are rushing to completion, evacuation, and securing some form of lighting (even flashlights) to be able to "see" danger if it comes their way during the next 20 hours.
Quoting 783. Dakster:



Depends. Is it a nude beach?
Not that I've seen so far. :-)
Quoting 777. sar2401:

Your IT guys need to adjust their filter. It's just a beach webcam in Manzanillo.


The filter vendor likely labels any site with a webcam as such, as a good number of them aren't there for viewing idyllic beach scenes these days. Just wanted to let people viewing from the office know that the chance that it would be flagged exists and to weigh the desire to view it against any potential for problems/questions it may create.
Presidencia México ‏@PresidenciaMX 3m3 minutes ago

#PasaLaVoz Sigue a las siguientes cuentas y así conocerás la información en tiempo real sobre #Huracán #Patricia
Translated from Spanish by Bing

#PasaLaVoz Follow the following accounts and thus meet the information in real time on #Huracán #Patricia



795. vis0

Quoting 410. 62901IL:



Prayers don't stop anything.
i think there is a bit more to it,  but my reply is here cmmnt#170, KEEP IT THERE as lives are at stake and it would be very disrespectful to your name to fill Dr. Masters blog with an opinion not related to the present serious needs, which is the best information we can forward to those in the path of ANY storm on this planet as Patricia or Serious storms throughout this planet.


Maybe daytime heating of cloud tops is the saving grace, by removing maximum potential difference?

It lost most of the double-nesting in this image, which is a big deal I think.

Quoting 760. Patrap:




Definite warming of the cloud tops.
Sheldor is "AFK"..
Something unique with this storm. It will make landfall with the strong quadrant opposing land. Hardly ever happens, in either hemisphere.


Patricia is a Monster.
Quoting 771. bigwes6844:

such a beautiful place that will never be the same after this storm.

I went to Puerto Vallarta in 2007 and stayed north of there in San Pancho. Absolutely one of the most beautiful places in the world. I shudder at what is going to happen there.
Presidencia México ‏@PresidenciaMX 10m

The @PoliciaFedMx moved to #Jalisco to support the citizenship #Huracán #Patricia

Quoting 799. franckinator:

Something unique with this storm. It will make landfall with the strong quadrant opposing land. Hardly ever happens, in either hemisphere.


Good point; but it does happen with a trajectory into Florida's West coast if a storm comes up from the Southern Gulf or Yucatan Region (Charley comes to mind).
Patricia looks a lot like Camille. Rather small stripped down to the core, rapid intensification, and of course, the 200 mph winds.


Quoting 728. hurricanehunter27:

ISS should go over Patricia soon.

Thanks! Impressive! Here some screenshots. Guess we'll see some excellent photos from the crew later!





Quoting 764. weathermanwannabe:

Not sure what Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson can add later on today except for the total devastation that the core of the storm will have at the land fall location.....................Every jog that keeps the wall away from critical infrastructure (for the recovery phase) will be a small blessing.
At what time is landfall estimated ? My cousin told me there are many people trying to flee inland, roads aren't the best, lest wish them luck. ...
Quoting 781. pcola57:



Thanks for that bit of wisdom added..I agree that your comment is necessary..
At a moment like this info is precious commodity..
Having spent some time in Mexico, one of the things that rankles Mexicans is when "Norte Americanos" assume that Mexico is a place run by drug lords and what government does exist still rides around on mules. That's an extreme example, obviously but the Mexican government, for all their troubles, is still capable of responding to emergencies. Frankly, some places in Mexico, including the Pacific coastal cities like PV and Manzanillo, have hurricane plans at least as good as many American cities and, in some case, much better.
Quoting 770. pcola57:

Dr. Masters usually post a new blog with current conditions before landfall..I don't know Spanish but someone needs to post that the situation is dire and don't go back until the all clear is given..many casualties are possible..


¿ Tu premisa es que si no hay avisos publicados en la sección de comentarios en un blog oscuro que más gente va a morir?
Quoting 806. HuracanTaino:

At what time is landfall estimated ? My cousin told me there are many people trying to flee inland, roads aren't the best, lest wish them luck. ...


10-12 hours I believe
Quoting 796. IndividualThinker2:



Maybe daytime heating of cloud tops is the saving grace, by removing maximum potential difference?

It lost most of the double-nesting in this image, which is a big deal I think.



Literally off the charts.
Quoting 788. liquidsquid:

When the wind is high enough to flatten waves and turn seawater to mist, I wonder how much that plays into rapid development of a storm? That alone must be providing incredible surface area for evaporation and heat transfer into the atmosphere, probably many times higher than areas in lower wind speeds.

Good thing there isn't a lot of general vertical lift to bring that mist up even higher than it does...
Is there any information on how this plays into storm intensity?

That is the magic of hurricane force, 12 Beaufort. Sea and air merge and if other factors let it, RI starts there and then.
Quoting 653. Jedkins01:

With that being said, it's worth noting that areas that have people pass through the calming eye are known for having reports of the backside of the eye causing more damage than the front, even though often the backside has a bit slower wind. It's likely due to the rapid change in speed and direction associated with the arrival of the backside. Recent examples I'm aware of are Wilma and Charley in Florida where the backside was reported consistently as doing more damage even though winds were a bit slower on the backside.


Yeah sounds counter intuitive, but reality doesn't care much about our intuition anyway. Read this book about Atmospheric Turbulence and his thesis is, that molecular movement and dynamics can't be discarded when studying turbulence. Now think about molecules in the atmosphere moving in a turbulent fashion hitting molecules in a structure. Gradual or sudden changes has to play a role here. But I don't wanna think about the mathematics...

If this is confirmed it should be made public on a wide scale, people should know that the worst can come with the backside of the eye.
Quoting 806. HuracanTaino:

At what time is landfall estimated ? My cousin told me there are many people trying to flee inland, roads aren't the best, lest wish them luck. ...


Looks like the late evening later today at the current speed; of course, that is eyewall landfall. The nightmare (from the core of the storm) will start well before then by later today (early evening): just a matter of hours now.



NOAA3 Mission #04 into PATRICIA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 16:19 UTC Oct 23, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 21.60°N 103.22°W
Bearing: 243° at 254 kt
Altitude: 6453 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 36 kt at 176°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



Quoting 788. liquidsquid:

When the wind is high enough to flatten waves and turn seawater to mist, I wonder how much that plays into rapid development of a storm? That alone must be providing incredible surface area for evaporation and heat transfer into the atmosphere, probably many times higher than areas in lower wind speeds.

Good thing there isn't a lot of general vertical lift to bring that mist up even higher than it does...
Is there any information on how this plays into storm intensity?

I read a study on this years ago. I don't recall for sure the explanation regarding the dynamics of mist evaporation (I think it requires especially warm SSTs to offset evaporative cooling), but I do recall something about the anti-friction effect, that the mist droplets act as ball bearings at some threshhold, which a Cat 5 hurricane has obviously surpassed. The mist droplets greatly facilitate a ramping up of the winds.
True. Forgot about Charley. Is that the one that did the right turn just before landfall?
Quoting 803. weathermanwannabe:



Good point; but it does happen with a trajectory into Florida's West coast if a storm comes up from the Southern Gulf or Yucatan Region (Charley comes to mind).
Quoting 672. Gator13126:



Manzanillo is going to be annihilated.


Or, wiped off the face of the earth, in other words.
Quoting 795. vis0:


i think there is a bit more to it,  but my reply is here cmmnt#170, KEEP IT THERE as lives are at stake and it would be very disrespectful to your name to fill Dr. Masters blog with an opinion not related to the present serious needs, which is the best information we can forward to those in the path of ANY storm on this planet as Patricia or Serious storms throughout this planet.

Is this blog used by those in the path of a storm to get information? It seems a rather specious methodology, wouldn't you think? I highly doubt those in the path even know of this blog, let alone would use it as a resource for determining a course of action in the face of this beast.

This is a weather BLOG that is used for discussion of storms, weather and climate for the most part. We should be respectful and tasteful in our discourse, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking that we have to be focused on a storm because others' lives are dependent upon our blogging.
Quoting 628. 1900hurricane:

Eyewall replacement is not happening.




No, it is not. Such a well organized storm like Patrica is not going to weaken like a normal storm would. It is impervious to all the normal factors (dry air, wind shear, land interaction). I'm sorry to say, but this is not good.
1615 UTC

Quoting 804. BayFog:

Patricia looks a lot like Camille. Rather small stripped down to the core, rapid intensification, and of course, the 200 mph winds.





Not a bad comparison. Patricia has a bit larger of a wind field than Camille overall; gale force winds in Patricia extend over 175 miles, Camille 160. But at the center yea the hurricane force winds extent with Camille's were actually wider. Pressure and sizes comparable. Nasty piece of weather.

edit typo
Quoting 771. bigwes6844:

such a beautiful place that will never be the same after this storm.



I wouldn't mind seeing a before and after pic of that. Such a tragedy is about to happen..
It's sad knowing for the next 24 hours the weather is going to be completely awful in one part of the world; not terribly far away as far as the whole earth is concerned, meanwhile for the past week I couldn't even dream up the beautiful conditions we've seen in my location.
We should see a new entry here soon...
Quoting 812. ChrisHamburg:



Yeah sounds counter intuitive, but reality doesn't care much about our intuition anyway. Read this book about Atmospheric Turbulence and his thesis is, that molecular movement and dynamics can't be discarded when studying turbulence. Now think about molecules in the atmosphere moving in a turbulent fashion hitting molecules in a structure. Gradual or sudden changes has to play a role here. But I don't wanna think about the mathematics...

If this is confirmed it should be made public on a wide scale, people should know that the worst can come with the backside of the eye.
Could the fact that the winds on the front side of a cyclone somewhat gradually build up to a maximum. Then calm in the eye. Then an abrupt transition to near maximum winds from the other direction?
The
Quoting 784. ColoradoBob1:

We’re gonna need a bigger barometer.

Bigger barometers, Bigger charts, Bigger (higher,) Cat scales. Seems humanity is evolving to the point where what we have is geared to the past?
Time to upgrade to the "New Era."
Quoting 807. sar2401:

Having spent some time in Mexico, one of the things that rankles Mexicans is when "Norte Americanos" assume that Mexico is a place run by drug lords and what government does exist still rides around on mules. That's an extreme example, obviously but the Mexican government, for all their troubles, is still capable of responding to emergencies. Frankly, some places in Mexico, including the Pacific coastal cities like PV and Manzanillo, have hurricane plans at least as good as many American cities and, in some case, much better.


I'd agree with that, just from listening to my in-laws(originally from Acapulco). Not sure about points further north, but I think if anything they would be more prepared since more storms threaten that area on average. Still, hard to imagine an emergency plan that takes into account the strongest storm ever recorded.
Quoting 823. Patrap:


a little turn back to the north perhaps?
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:41:18 N Lon : 105:19:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.2 / 884.4mb/176.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 7.7 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +5.2C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.2 degrees


Says weakening again, and all the numbers came down except the CI# which went up for some reason.



We'll see how it...weathers...the day time high heating.

Right now holding about the same, but who knows. Stranger stuff has happened I guess.

My guess is some shear somehow developed over the CDO, maybe low level circulation is moving faster than the upper level anticyclone, so it's losing stacking? dunno.
Too bad the responsible rich won't be the ones to pay for this catastrophe...
Quoting 827. PlazaRed:


Bigger barometers, Bigger charts, Bigger (higher,) Cat scales. Seems humanity is evolving to the point where what we have is geared to the past?
Time to upgrade to the "New Era."


I agree.
MIMIC has it weakening a little now..Notice knot speed on upper left corner..

Might be too late for an EWRC to knock this thing down a peg before landfall. :/
Quoting 833. hydrus:

MIMIC has it weakening a little now..Notice knot speed on upper left corner..




174KT
Quoting 806. HuracanTaino:

At what time is landfall estimated ? My cousin told me there are many people trying to flee inland, roads aren't the best, lest wish them luck. ...

Time is about 12 noon now, so landfall at about 9pm onwards according to estimate.
Black dark and a long night ahead.
From Josh with Icyclone in Mexico,last night.



9:30 pm Thursday (Jalisco): We've settled for the night in a cheap room in a dusty little beachside town called Perula. There's a brilliant, nonstop electrical storm happening offshore. It's dead calm. The air is disgusting-- so heavy and still, there's something rotted and deathly about it. Oh, and there's s Cat 5 hovering offshore, ready to attack. The townspeople know about it and seem spooked. We're going to sleep a little, then probably head N in the morning. Chasing Hurricane PATRICIA is going to be an epic challenge. The stakes are high. Erik and I feel the weight of it.




aded: This is almost the exact image as we saw early the Morning of Aug 29th before K came in..



838. MahFL
Patrica wobbled a bit back to the left, looks like land fall will be north of Manzanillo.
Really waiting Dr. Masters Friday morning update. Its 9:50 AM Pacific. Lets go Doc. You da man.
Hurricane Patricia: Live updates
CNN, Updated 1721 GMT (0021 HKT) October 23, 2015
Quoting 837. Patrap:

From Josh with Icyclone in Mexico,last night.



9:30 pm Thursday (Jalisco): We've settled for the night in a cheap room in a dusty little beachside town called Perula. There's a brilliant, nonstop electrical storm happening offshore. It's dead calm. The air is disgusting-- so heavy and still, there's something rotted and deathly about it. Oh, and there's s Cat 5 hovering offshore, ready to attack. The townspeople know about it and seem spooked. We're going to sleep a little, then probably head N in the morning. Chasing Hurricane PATRICIA is going to be an epic challenge. The stakes are high. Erik and I feel the weight of it.




aded: This is almost the exact image as we saw early the Morning of Aug 29th before K came in..






Last advisory from the Mexican met service had Perula as the likely landfall location.
Definitely weakening. And even if due to an ERC, can't reintensify before landfall.
Quoting 809. win1gamegiantsplease:



10-12 hours I believe
At night...The worst time in my book...At least when theres daylight you can see whats going on..Charley was day...Jeanne was mostly night...Night sux.
Current tower (airport) feeds for several Mexican locations; closest larger airport to the landfall cone inland listed on here is Guadalajara (Jalisco)..............All feeds are in Spanish. Conditions normal at the moment at this location/tower but they could deteriorate to the point of possible closure of the field depending on storm conditions later on this evening into tomorrow (depending on track of the storm).

https://www.liveatc.net/feedindex.php?type=intern ational-na

NOAA3 Mission #04 into PATRICIA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 16:49 UTC Oct 23, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 20.37°N 105.57°W
Bearing: 225° at 329 kt
Altitude: 6411 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 26 kt at 136°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



Now it comes down to the wobbles...

A little zig left and it misses a major population center, little zag right and it hits them directly.

847. ADCS
My guess is that it's weakening on account of land interaction with the coastal ranges. Its outflow has been scraping up against those mountains for 8 hours now, which has to introduce some friction into the system that wasn't there previously. There are peaks of up to 1,500 m within 50 km of the shoreline, and you can see that they've had a disruptive effect on that outflow.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 824. win1gamegiantsplease:

It's sad knowing for the next 24 hours the weather is going to be completely awful in one part of the world; not terribly far away as far as the whole earth is concerned, meanwhile for the past week I couldn't even dream up the beautiful conditions we've seen in my location.
Yes indeed. If the weather in Alabama was always his nice we'd have about the same population as Los Angeles. Still starved for rain though while other parts of North America are going to get a drenching. The models now have the cold front coming down from the north getting more out of phase with the surface low that should form in the Gulf off the coast of Texas. What that means for me is that the resulting convection will stay closer to the coast as the mess drifts east instead of moving inland further. That would be good for the folks in the Panhandle and SW Alabama, but the convection is going to cut off the unstable return flow from the Gulf. I'll be looking at a decent rain event 100 miles south of me Monday and Tuesday while I get nothing. Rats!

EDIT: LOL. Did it again...
Quoting 837. Patrap:

From Josh with Icyclone in Mexico,last night.



9:30 pm Thursday (Jalisco): We've settled for the night in a cheap room in a dusty little beachside town called Perula. There's a brilliant, nonstop electrical storm happening offshore. It's dead calm. The air is disgusting-- so heavy and still, there's something rotted and deathly about it. Oh, and there's s Cat 5 hovering offshore, ready to attack. The townspeople know about it and seem spooked. We're going to sleep a little, then probably head N in the morning. Chasing Hurricane PATRICIA is going to be an epic challenge. The stakes are high. Erik and I feel the weight of it.




aded: This is almost the exact image as we saw early the Morning of Aug 29th before K came in..




yep i can definitely resemble the skyline before K came ashore. Very sticky and humid! It was very peaceful the day before K came ashore. You can almost see what the day would have been like outside of the storm.
853. MAstu
visible image at CIMSS is showing two eyes

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?& basin=eastpac&sname=20E&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&var s=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 17:53:15 N Lon : 105:18:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.2 / 884.4mb/176.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.9 7.7 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.3 degrees


Says slight weakening.

856. beell
Quoting 818. SouthTampa:

Is this blog used by those in the path of a storm to get information? It seems a rather specious methodology, wouldn't you think? I highly doubt those in the path even know of this blog, let alone would use it as a resource for determining a course of action in the face of this beast.

This is a weather BLOG that is used for discussion of storms, weather and climate for the most part. We should be respectful and tasteful in our discourse, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking that we have to be focused on a storm because others' lives are dependent upon our blogging.


In my own opinion (elbows and other body parts included)...I second the notion.
Agree, looks like a pretty sheltered cove, but the swells are definitely larger and appears water is starting to pile up further up the shoreline.

Quoting 855. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

The surf is starting to build on this web cam from what it was 2 hours ago.
new blog everybody
859. MahFL
Convection actually intensified on the SSE quadrant:



Quoting 843. hydrus:

At night...The worst time in my book...At least when theres daylight you can see whats going on..Charley was day...Jeanne was mostly night...Night sux.


Andrew was at 4-6 AM too, scary stuff