WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Major Threat to Mexico from Category 4 Patricia

By: Bob Henson 8:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2015

Turbo-charged Hurricane Patricia is on track to deliver a devastating one-two punch: landfall as a major hurricane on Mexico's Pacific coast, followed by the storm feeding an extreme rainfall event in parts of Texas. Drawing on near record-warm sea-surface temperatures of 30.5°C or 87°F (1-2°C above average), Patricia is also taking advantage of very light wind shear (5 - 10 knots) and rich atmospheric moisture (greater than 70% relative humidity). Within a span of just 27 hours, from 15Z Thursday to 18Z Friday, Patricia metamorphosed from a minimal tropical storm (top sustained winds of 40 mph) to a Category 4 hurricane (130 mph). This puts Patricia among the top rapid intensifiers in the modern record of hurricane monitoring. Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) data collected from aboard a NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight confirmed a peak wind of 114 knots (131 mph) on Thursday afternoon near 1:30 pm EDT.


Figure 1. latest visible satellite image for Hurricane Patricia.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Patricia taken at 1:45 pm EDT Thursday, October 22, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

There is no sign of any letup in Patricia’s intensification. A pinhole eye was becoming evident in visible and infrared satellite imagery at midday Thursday (see Figures 1 and 2). Ominously, the rapid intensification index from the SHIPS model on Thursday morning showed a 95 percent chance of Patricia strengthening by another 45 mph over the 24 hours (Patricia’s intensity at that point was estimated at 100 mph). At 2 pm EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center projected that Patricia would peak at 150 mph winds by Friday morning--just 10 mph below Category 5 strength--and would strike the Mexican coast as a Category 4 storm. Update: At 8 pm EDT Thursday, Patricia's top sustained winds were already up to 150 mph. Satellite loops suggest that Patricia could be upgraded to Category 5 strength by Friday morning, if not Thursday night.

The track forecast for Patricia
After roughly paralleling the Mexican coast on Thursday, Patricia is expected to make a rapid turn toward the north, bringing it onshore between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo on Friday night. Models have edged westward slightly, which reduces the threat of a direct strike on Manzanillo but increases the chance that Puerto Vallarta will experience impacts. On its currently forecast track, Patricia would pass east of Puerto Vallarta after several hours over land, but only a slight westward bend could results in a more direct strike on Puerto Vallarta. Hurricane warnings are in effect from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo, with a hurricane watch extending east to Lazaro Cardenas. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning extend west from the warning area to San Blas, including Puerto Vallarta.


Figure 3. Major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, and 5) that have passed within 200 miles of Patricia’s location (15.0°N, 104.0°W as of 2 PM EDT Thursday, October 22, 2005).

Few of the Northeast Pacific’s major hurricanes strike the Mexican coast
Although the Northeast Pacific can be a highly active region for hurricanes, relatively few of these make landfall on the Mexican coast, thanks largely to the coastline’s northwest-to-southeast orientation. Most hurricanes that develop off Mexico’s Pacific coast track west or west-northwest, eventually decaying well out to sea (see Figure 3). However, the exceptions can be devastating. Landfalling hurricanes in this area are most common toward the end of the season, as upper-level westerlies begin to penetrate far enough south to force low-latitude storms to recurve. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the Mexican states under threat from Patricia--Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima--was Category 4 Hurricane Kenna in late October 2002. Causing at least four deaths and inflicting around $100 million US in damage, Kenna struck with winds of 140 mph, which made it the second-strongest Pacific storm to strike Mexico in modern records. The strongest was an unnamed 1959 hurricane that struck near Manzanillo, also in late October. This catastrophic storm is the only Category 5 hurricane to strike Mexico’s Pacific coast, with estimated peak winds of near 160 mph (but the storm will likely be downgraded to Category 4 status based on a reanalysis now under review.) Damage was $280 million US, which would equate to more than $2 billion in current dollars. Some 1800 deaths were attributed to the storm, making it the deadliest Northeast Pacific hurricane on record.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall for Hurricane Patricia from the 2 am EDT (06 UTC) Thursday, October 22, 2015 run of the HWRF model. Patricia is predicted to dump widespread rains of 8 - 16" along the coast, and bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain all the way to South Texas. Image credit: NOAA.

Torrential rains aiming for Texas
Patricia will compound an ongoing heavy rain episode in Texas being driven by the approach of a strong upper-level low. Rich Gulf moisture is pooling along a surface front associated with the upper low. A cluster of heavy storms covered most of western Oklahoma at midday, extending into the west half of North Texas. This slow-moving area is expected to stall tonight and Friday over northern Texas, producing a stripe of rainfall that could total 6” - 8”. The Dallas-Fort Worth area could end up within this belt of heaviest rain. Round Two arrives with the injection of moisture ahead of Hurricane Patricia, whose remnants will be sweeping across Mexico toward Texas this weekend.


Figure 5. 3-day precipitation forecast for the period 0Z Friday, October 23 (7:00 pm EDT Thursday) through 0Z Monday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.


Figure 6. Latest drought status across Texas as of Tuesday, October 20, as released in the U.S. Drought Monitor on October 22. We can expect much of this red to disappear by next week! Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Conditions are aligning for a predecessor rain event (PRE) across the heart of Texas as Patricia approaches this weekend. In such events, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. By Saturday and Sunday, Patricia’s remnants will be moving across southern Texas, exacerbating rainfall there. Multi-day totals for the whole event will depend on where each of the various elements ends up being focused, but central Texas from Dallas to Austin appears to be most at risk for totals that could locally exceed a foot. It’s been a year of rainfall extremity for Texas: May was by far the wettest month in state history, quenching severe drought conditions, while dryness in late summer and early fall put much of the state back into drought (see Figure 6).

Tropical cyclones from the Northeast Pacific are notorious autumn rainmakers in Texas and Oklahoma. In late October 1983, Hurricane Tico caused hundreds of millions in US damage and led to rainfall totals exceeding a foot across parts of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.


Figure 7. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Olaf.

Two other major hurricanes in the Pacific: Olaf and Champi
Though it’s weakened notably in the last 24 hours, Hurricane Olaf remained a Category 3 storm as of the 11 am EDT Thursday advisory from NHC. Olaf’s recurving path toward the north-northwest will be taking it into increasing shear and over gradually cooler waters over the next several days, leading to a gradual decline. However, Olaf is still projected to be a tropical cyclone on Tuesday morning, October 27, and its remnants will be sweeping toward the U.S. West Coast by midweek. Computer models still differ on Olaf’s evolution at that point, but at minimum, we can expect some of its moisture and energy to be folded into a Pacific Northwest storm, and some associated rainfall as far south as California can’t be ruled out yet.


Figure 8. Latest satellite image of Typhoon Champi.

In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Champi continues to rage, with top sustained winds of 115 mph as of the most recent advisory. Champi has become an annular typhoon, with a gigantic eye estimated at 70 miles in diameter (see this Capital Weather Gang feature). Champi will accelerate to the northeast over the next several days, likely maintaining tropical storm intensity through at least Sunday before it gets swept into a powerful, non-tropical storm system in the North Pacific.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update in his Thursday afternoon post, Heavy Rain in Texas as Progressive Pattern Leads to Increased Forecast Uncertainty.

Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr. Henson!
Hey does anyone know how much San Antonio is expecting? My mom has a creek behind her house there. The creek is just usually a dry wash. She's pretty high but last time we were there I took a stroll through the woods back there and there was garbage bags and stuff In Trees about 12 feet over my head....
Apologies for the delayed update, everyone! Thanks for your patience today. We'll be keeping a close eye on Patricia throughout the next several days.

--Bob
Thank you Mr. Henson..Patrica may end up in the record books..Texas too..
Quoting 2. Sandcat:

Hey does anyone know how much San Antonio is expecting? My mom has a creek behind her house there. The creek is just usually a dry wash. She's pretty high but last time we were there I took a stroll through the woods back there and there was garbage bags and stuff In Trees about 12 feet over my head....
Howdy S.C....Models may shift a bit, but if I lived there, i'd be taking action now and watching the latest weather forecasts
Bob and Masters,

No mention on the possibility of Patrica becoming a Great Lakes storm after it turns extratropical?
Many of the models are showing Patrica or Patrica's remnants interacting with an Alberta Clipper and becoming the center of or becoming part of a Great Lakes "November Gale" type system.
Thanks, Bob, solid update! And good luck to the Mexicans with a fury like Patricia paying visit!

Hard to miss eye-champion Champi on the globe:

Click to enlarge. (Himawari pic)
Eye is clearing out quick..

Quoting 6. FunnelVortex:

Bob and Masters,

No mention on the possibility of Patrica becoming a Great Lakes storm after it turns extratropical?
Many of the models are showing Patrica or Patrica's remnants interacting with an Alberta Clipper and becoming the center of or becoming part of a Great Lakes "November Gale" type system.
Not to sound crass F.V., but you getting to far ahead of things to be concerned about. We have a major hurricane with the possibility of a strike on a populated city. I sure at this point folks are not to concerned with the great Lakes, or the forecast a week from now. Edit...Actually TX will have to watch the weeks weather...
Quoting 2. Sandcat:

Hey does anyone know how much San Antonio is expecting? My mom has a creek behind her house there. The creek is just usually a dry wash. She's pretty high but last time we were there I took a stroll through the woods back there and there was garbage bags and stuff In Trees about 12 feet over my head....


Too soon to be too specific about amounts, but this is the kind of setup that can produce major flooding in the Hill Country area of TX. Anyone who lives in flood-prone areas should be extra-cautious this weekend.

Bob
Two large cities in TX look like they are in danger of dangerous floods..


Youtube caption: 22 Oct 15, Typhoon Champi Himawari Visible Loop
NWSOPC: Here we have a 4 hour Himawari visible satellite loop of Typhoon Champi in the NW Pacific basin. Typhoon Champi has developed into what is known as an "Annular" typhoon over the past day. Annular typhoons and hurricanes tend to be very symmetric and have a very large eye; in the case of Typhoon Champi nearly 60 NM. The process of eye expansion occurs slowly and is due to interaction of the mesovortices along the eye wall with stronger winds within the eye wall and calm winds in the eye. If you look closely, you may be able to see the mesovortices (the "swirls") in this loop. Annular systems weaken at a much slower rate than cyclones of equal size with smaller eye diameter.
This video contains no speech or other audio information necessary for the comprehension of the content. It is best viewed in HD. The resolution can be changed by clicking on the gear wheel in the bottom of the video screen.
The imagery in this video is courtesy of the GOES-R Proving Ground.
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PATRICA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY...
Quoting 11. BobHenson:



Too soon to be too specific about amounts, but this is the kind of setup that can produce major flooding in the Hill Country area of TX. Anyone who lives in flood-prone areas should be extra-cautious this weekend.

Bob
Thank you Mr. Henson!
ouch
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED


could this be the strongest hurricane to ever make land fall in MX on the E PAC side in a long time?
Quoting 9. hydrus:

Not to sound crass F.V., but you getting to far ahead of things to be concerned about. We have a major hurricane with the possibility of a strike on a populated city. I sure at this point folks are not to concerned with the great Lakes, or the forecast a week from now. Edit...Actually TX will have to watch the weeks weather...


I just have a feeling of the setup within the next couple of weeks. The models have been showing a storm for the lakes area next week for the past few days, and that was before there was an ex-major tropical system forecasted to head into the mix.

I could be getting ahead of myself, but I've seen storm systems do strange things once they get to the lakes or close to the lakes.
Bob, Champi's eye is probably much larger than 45miles (see entry). WP now has it at 70 miles:

Capital Weather Gang
The large and amazing eye of Pacific Typhoon Champi
By Jason Samenow October 22 at 1:31 PM
The hyper active and record-breaking Pacific tropical cyclone season continues to produce remarkable storms. Champi, the category 3 typhoon in the western Pacific, has formed an eye that is 70 miles wide!
"It's impressively large," said Phil Klotzbach, hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
The eye is so big that anything underneath it would experience 7 to 8 hours of calm, before getting slammed by the storm's eyewall. "It wouldn't surprise me if some birds are taking shelter there," Klotzbach said. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 18. barbamz:

Bob, Champi's eye is probably much larger than 45miles (see entry). WP now has it at 70 miles:

Capital Weather Gang
The large and amazing eye of Pacific Typhoon Champi
By Jason Samenow October 22 at 1:31 PM
The hyper active and record-breaking Pacific tropical cyclone season continues to produce remarkable storms. Champi, the category 3 typhoon in the western Pacific, has formed an eye that is 70 miles wide!
"It's impressively large," said Phil Klotzbach, hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
The eye is so big that anything underneath it would experience 7 to 8 hours of calm, before getting slammed by the storm's eyewall. "It wouldn't surprise me if some birds are taking shelter there," Klotzbach said. ...

More see link above.


Thanks, barbamz! I pulled that from JTWC, but the eye definitely looked larger than that to me too. :-) I'll update...

Bob
Patricia appears to be moving well east of next forecast point. If this continues, threat to Manzanillo increases considerably.
Quoting 16. Tazmanian:

ouch
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED


could this be the strongest hurricane to ever make land fall in MX on the E PAC side in a long time?

Yes..
Quoting 20. BobHenson:
Thanks, barbamz! I pulled that from JTWC, but the eye definitely looked larger than that to me too. :-) I'll update...
Bob

Very welcome. Maybe the other specifications were in nautical miles (as the caption quoted in post #13).

Champi's large eye attracts a lot of loving attention in the weatherworld, lol:

Click to enlarge. Source: Typhoon Champi, CIMSS Satellite Blog, October 22nd, 2015
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015


Excerpt:
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFFECTING THE MAJORITY OF TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A TOTAL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HEAVY RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND IN URBAN AREAS.

New track is closer to Puerto vallarta
So not even the CMC is showing any new activity in the Atlantic.

Looks like Atlantic Season is officially closed.
What makes Patricia dangerous it's that it's hitting a populated area.
Quoting 27. SouthFLwxfreak101:

What makes Patricia dangerous it's that it's hitting a populated area.


Obviously.
I live in the center of the Texas Hill Country and we are preparing for a great deal of rain. Several days ago the forecast was for the heaviest rains to fall along the I-35 corridor along the line which goes through San Antonio and Austin. This also includes the community of Wimberley which was devastated by the flooding this past May. The grocery store was packed with people this morning stocking up an essentials.

Here is the latest forecast from the Weather Service for Austin/San Antonio

"Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 12:02 PM CDT on October 22, 2015

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Friday morning through Sunday
morning...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Texas...
including the following counties... Atascosa... Bandera... Bastrop...
Bexar... blanco... Burnet... Caldwell... Comal... De Witt...
Dimmit... Edwards... Fayette... frio... Gillespie... Gonzales...
Guadalupe... Hays... Karnes... Kendall... Kerr... Kinney... Lavaca...
Lee... Llano... Maverick... Medina... real... Travis... Uvalde... Val
Verde... Williamson... Wilson and Zavala.

* From Friday morning through Sunday morning

* for heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals of 10
to 12 inches.

* Heavy rain will lead to flash flooding of roads... low lying
areas... creeks... and streams. There is also a threat for some
minor to moderate river flooding."
Quoting 6. FunnelVortex:

Bob and Masters,

No mention on the possibility of Patrica becoming a Great Lakes storm after it turns extratropical?
Many of the models are showing Patrica or Patrica's remnants interacting with an Alberta Clipper and becoming the center of or becoming part of a Great Lakes "November Gale" type system.

Patricia won't turn extra-tropical. It will be dissipated in the high mountains of Mexico. The moisture aloft, possibly together with a remnant and weakening mid/upper level swirl, might well get caught up into a developing storm somewhere in the Midwest or East.
Quoting 11. BobHenson:



Too soon to be too specific about amounts, but this is the kind of setup that can produce major flooding in the Hill Country area of TX. Anyone who lives in flood-prone areas should be extra-cautious this weekend.

Bob


No doubt October 1998. So much about it is similar.



"Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-8 water vapor image at
7 a.m. CDT, Saturday, October 17, 1998, showing a plume of moist mid and high level air streaming
across south Texas from Hurricane Madeline located off the west coast of Mexico."

However rainfall totals are most likely quite a bit higher then they will be this weekend but it just gives an idea.



Total rainfall amounts over south Texas for the period October 17-21, 1998.
(Courtesy of the NOAA/NWS LMRFC)
raw T # up too 7.4



Hurricane 20E


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 15:22:10 N Lon : 104:25:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Quoting 26. FunnelVortex:

So not even the CMC is showing any new activity in the Atlantic.

Looks like Atlantic Season is officially closed.

At least the moisture off the coast of West Africa is currently sucked up by a sling of the jetstream and pushed over the western African coast towards southern Europe/the Mediterranean.




Current jetstream. Source with loop.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
The Southern Oscillation Index has been just a big old blue ocean of negative values.
Quoting 26. FunnelVortex:

So not even the CMC is showing any new activity in the Atlantic.

Looks like Atlantic Season is officially closed.

Wouldn't speak too soon... remnants of Patricia may have an opportunity to develop.
Is it likely that 2015 will end up being the record wettest calendar year in Texas or Oklahoma?
Is he contradicting himself? MJO wave=A weaker El nino?
Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 11 hhace 11 horas Ver traducción
MJO wave will throw a wrench into the Nino machine for next several weeks. End result may well be stronger Nino
the last time we saw raw T # this high on a hurricane was typhoon haiyan and that storm and that storm had a raw T # of 8 it may have been higher but it maxed out at 8




Hurricane 20E



raw T # up too 7.6


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 15:25:22 N Lon : 104:30:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.6mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.3 degrees
Quoting 39. DCSwithunderscores:

Is it likely that 2015 will end up being the record wettest calendar year in Texas or Oklahoma?
Texas is in the middle of a severe drought...
Quoting 38. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Wouldn't speak too soon... remnants of Patricia may have an opportunity to develop.

that storm is extremely non-tropical you can see the well defined front in the gulf
Quoting 42. Camerooski:

Texas is in the middle of a severe drought...


TX is not the olny state in the middle of severe drought you no CA is has well
I remember a post a while back speculating if hurricane patricia could become a category 4 with 155mph winds. Well look what the forecast shows now.
Quoting 38. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Wouldn't speak too soon... remnants of Patricia may have an opportunity to develop.


Except that originated in the pacific
According to SevereWeatherGreece there are now two fatalities due to severe weather (including a tornado in Athens) and serious flash flooding in Greece. And more bad weather is expected in the next hours down there. Weather in Germany is uneventfull and still way too dry in my part near Frankfurt. Have to go now as it is midnight; have a nice evening, everyone.


Saved current IR loop, showing the flow of African moisture into the Mediterranean lately. Source.

Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex
Low geopotential is present across eastern Europe. Embedded cut-off lows progresses eastward from the Ukraine to Russia and from Italy to Greece. Upstream ridging affects south-western Europe. At its northern flank, a strong polar jet stream expands into Europe. A first short-wave trough moves across the North Sea and amplifies into the southern Baltic States. At lower levels relatively cool air masses have spread into the forecast region. A frontal boundary is present ahead of the Italian trough, and latest soundings indicate some steeper lapse rates over Greece. These lapse rates overlap with rich Mediterranean moisture and some CAPE is expected.
More details see link above (alert level 2 for the Aegean Sea).

Bad weather causes problems for migrants, authorities
Ekatherimini, FRIDAY OCTOBER 23, 2015
A worsening of weather conditions has created additional problems for migrants and refugees trying to get to Greece by sea from neighboring Turkey and for authorities on the islands trying to accommodate them. ...

Refugees Confront Harsh Weather Conditions in the Balkans
Published Oct 22 2015 03:41 PM EDT, weather.com
Hurricane 20E


raw T # up too 7.7

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 15:28:38 N Lon : 104:35:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.6mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -1.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.4 degrees
Wouldn't be surprised if I woke up to Patricia as a category 5 tomorrow:



Let's hope Patricia undergoes an EWRC before landfall to weaken the storm a bit.
Quoting 35. barbamz:


At least the moisture off the coast of West Africa is currently sucked up by a sling of the jetstream and pushed over the western African coast towards southern Europe/the Mediterranean.




Current jetstream. Source with loop.



Its not going to get us.
The forecast is for the rain to wander off along the north coast of Africa and maybe a few heavy showers at most in our zone.
They must be getting a lot of rain in southern Morocco and the Saharan coast right now, that could be interesting in the desert areas?
Meanwhile the Canary Islands got another 3 inches of rain today, they have been flooding now for 3 days and are set to get a lot more rain over the next 3 days or so. a bit like a scaled down version of the Philippines last week for them.
Looking at that band of cloud on the west coast of Africa, I'm wondering and shuddering to think what would happen if it continued to flow on its path north east? We would have some serious flooding to cope with here but its not going to come our way (this time!)
Spectacular floods and waterfalls all over the place shown on the news report tonight.

I'm thinking that the Mexico situation with Patricia could be a lot worse then a lot of people imagine, as the basic construction will have little chance against those kinds of winds and rainfall. There is also probably very little safe refuges in the area of landfall, could be similar to the Cat 5 Philippines strike last year.
Lets hope for the best and we could see a landfall in a sparsely populated area but there are not a lot of possibilities.
Thanks dok henson!
Eye seems to be enlarging, at least visually.

Quoting 50. Envoirment:

Wouldn't be surprised if I woke up to Patricia as a category 5 tomorrow:



Let's hope Patricia undergoes an EWRC before landfall to weaken the storm a bit.
I wuz about to say that..:)
Patricia looks better than Joaquin did at this intensity.

hey guys is noaa still out there?


000
URPN12 KWBC 221917
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015
A. 22/18:55:26Z
B. 15 deg 13 min N
104 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2728 m
D. 97 kt
E. 136 deg 7 nm
F. 217 deg 98 kt
G. 136 deg 7 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 11 C / 3058 m
J. 19 C / 3052 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 0220E PATRICIA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 116 KT 027 / 10 NM 17:35:51Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 103 KT 316 / 8 NM 18:57:22Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 155 / 16 KTS

not sure how old that is
Quoting 29. OldLeatherneck:

I live in the center of the Texas Hill Country and we are preparing for a great deal of rain. Several days ago the forecast was for the heaviest rains to fall along the I-35 corridor along the line which goes through San Antonio and Austin. This also includes the community of Wimberley which was devastated by the flooding this past May. The grocery store was packed with people this morning stocking up an essentials.

Here is the latest forecast from the Weather Service for Austin/San Antonio

"Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 12:02 PM CDT on October 22, 2015

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Friday morning through Sunday
morning...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Texas...
including the following counties... Atascosa... Bandera... Bastrop...
Bexar... blanco... Burnet... Caldwell... Comal... De Witt...
Dimmit... Edwards... Fayette... frio... Gillespie... Gonzales...
Guadalupe... Hays... Karnes... Kendall... Kerr... Kinney... Lavaca...
Lee... Llano... Maverick... Medina... real... Travis... Uvalde... Val
Verde... Williamson... Wilson and Zavala.

* From Friday morning through Sunday morning

* for heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals of 10
to 12 inches.

* Heavy rain will lead to flash flooding of roads... low lying
areas... creeks... and streams. There is also a threat for some
minor to moderate river flooding."

Good to hear people are taking this seriously and doing it early..
Quoting 54. hydrus:

I wuz about to say that..:)

Do you think there will be enough time before interaction with the land for Patricia to become a Cat 5?
Quoting 32. Gearsts:




What storm? Looks good though
Quoting 55. CybrTeddy:

Patricia looks better than Joaquin did at this intensity.




Joaquin also looked good at this intensity.
Link
I've seen some pretty heavy rain out of this system so far.
Quoting 58. PlazaRed:


Do you think there will be enough time before interaction with the land for Patricia to become a Cat 5?


I do. (sorry Mexico...)
Just for the record, the largest eye in a Tropical Cyclone was 200 miles in Typhoon Carmen of 1960...
Quoting 2. Sandcat:
Hey does anyone know how much San Antonio is expecting? My mom has a creek behind her house there. The creek is just usually a dry wash. She's pretty high but last time we were there I took a stroll through the woods back there and there was garbage bags and stuff In Trees about 12 feet over my head....


I lived in the Austin area years ago and recall there were many times of heavy flooding in the hill country as well as San Antonio and even the infamous Memorial Day Flood in Austin. That area is VERY prone to flash flooding - lots of hills & ravines and bare rock which sheds the rain quickly. There was even a time when a bus got swept away in one San antonio flood, I think. Very small gullies and such can become torrents. The Pedernales River in the hill country can do that even though it also can be like a dry river just prior. With this much rain expected, use extreme caution. If in doubt, don't take chances, IMO. Better to be safe than sorry, especially if you've seen trash bags in the trees like that that high up -- and how much LESS rain did THAT likely come from, right?
Storm just sitting there north of Brownsville. That rain is going to add up very quickly.

@ post 65: To move or not to move, that is the question.

Quote function not working for me, anyone else having this problem?
Incredible.

Okay I'm seriously starting to believe that Patrica could be a category 5 tonight. The eye has been steadily warming up and the CDO is becoming increasingly more round with sub -80C cloud tops.


Quoting 67. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Incredible.


Cat 5 possible?
Just noticed a couple individual storm cells wandering across SW TX, so I checked SPC.
Possibly a thunderstorm watch coming.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX /FROM THE
CONCHO VALLEY TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222247Z - 222345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO THIS EVENING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE CONCHO VALLEY OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY FOR THIS
REGION.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO
LONG-LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS TERRELL
COUNTY. EACH OF THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED TO SEPARATE
SW-NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...WITH EACH
LIKELY SURFACE BASED.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER NORTH IN VICINITY OF SJT
AND THE CONCHO VALLEY...TSTMS DEVELOPING THERE HAVE TENDED TO BE
UNDERCUT BY A SLOW SOUTHWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR
ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION AS HAS BEEN INDICATED WITH THE TERRELL COUNTY
STORMS. GIVEN LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/22/2015
Raw T# is now 7.8. That dark grey ring has cooled all the way around a small, rapidly warming eye. She could max the Dvorak scale here shortly, at least on a raw number.

Quoting 69. Gearsts:

Cat 5 possible?

Honestly, it may be one now.
when the next recon going out
Patricia has a perfectly circular warm core around the eye. This is a strong 4 or 5 hurricane right now... Could go down as strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in Mexico
Quoting 74. Camerooski:

Patricia has a perfectly circular warm core around the eye. This is a strong 4 or 5 hurricane right now... Could go down as strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in Mexico



at lest on the E PAC side
Pretty but so destructive.
man do i wish we had a recon in there right now
Quoting 77. Tazmanian:

man do i wish we had a recon in there right now
When is the next recon?
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211526
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 21 OCTOBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-148

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL XX
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600Z
B. NOAA3 0220E PATRICIA B. AFXXX 0320E PATRICIA
C. 22/1430Z C. 22/2300Z
D. 15.1N 101.8W D. 16.5N 103.3W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2000Z E. 23/0430 TO 23/0730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A FIX AT 23/1800Z IF THE SYSTEM
IS STILL OVER WATER.
3. REMARKS: NOAA WB-57 IS FLYING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
AROUND PATRICIA TODAY WITH A 21/1600Z TAKEOFF FROM
HARLINGEN. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000FT. DROPS: 76
ANTICIPATED. TOMORROW'S TAKEOFF 22/1500Z INTO THE SAME
AREA WITH 80 DROPS ANTICIPATED.
Quoting 79. PedleyCA:

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL XX
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600Z
B. NOAA3 0220E PATRICIA B. AFXXX 0320E PATRICIA
C. 22/1430Z C. 22/2300Z
D. 15.1N 101.8W D. 16.5N 103.3W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2000Z E. 23/0430 TO 23/0730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A FIX AT 23/1800Z IF THE SYSTEM
IS STILL OVER WATER.
3. REMARKS: NOAA WB-57 IS FLYING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
AROUND PATRICIA TODAY WITH A 21/1600Z TAKEOFF FROM
HARLINGEN. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000FT. DROPS: 76
ANTICIPATED. TOMORROW'S TAKEOFF 22/1500Z INTO THE SAME
AREA WITH 80 DROPS ANTICIPATED.




thats old here the right info

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 22 OCTOBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-149

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 23/1800Z
B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA
C. 23/1430Z
D. 18.0N 105.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: NOAA WB-57 IS FLYING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
AROUND PATRICIA TODAY WITH A 22/1600Z TAKEOFF FROM
HARLINGEN. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000FT. DROPS: 80
ANTICIPATED. TOMORROW'S TAKEOFF 23/1500Z FOR PATRICIA
WITH 84 DROPS ANTICIPATED.
Quoting 2. Sandcat:

Hey does anyone know how much San Antonio is expecting? My mom has a creek behind her house there. The creek is just usually a dry wash. She's pretty high but last time we were there I took a stroll through the woods back there and there was garbage bags and stuff In Trees about 12 feet over my head....


The bags are probably from May-June 2015 flooding. How did the creek do during the May 2013 flood?...We got 12 inches over night. (2nd wettest day in history) There were some homes flooded on the south side, but I'm thinking it was from the SA River. How did the creek do during the 1998 flood? (16 inches of rain)

It's very important to obey any road closures and avoid driving into creek water that is going over the road.
This is a beautiful storm, though it is unfortunate it must threaten land.
Lots of extra energy for Patricia to draw from.

holy we OMG raw T # is now at 8.0 there never been a storm in the E PAC that had a raw T # of 8.0 the last time we saw a T # of 8.0 is with typhoon haiyan

Hurricane 20E


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 15:38:52 N Lon : 104:47:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 8.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : 4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.7 degrees
Quoting 81. SubtropicalHi:



The bags are probably from May-June 2015 flooding. How did the creek do during the May 2013 flood?...We got 12 inches over night. (2nd wettest day in history) There were some homes flooded on the south side, but I'm thinking it was from the SA River. How did the creek do during the 1998 flood? (16 inches of rain)

It's very important to obey any road closures and avoid driving into creek water that is going over the road.
This would have been from the 2013 flood as we were there Xmas 2013 when I saw that stuff. I don't know San Antonio well but she lives a couple miles from seaworld
Quoting 85. Sandcat:

This would have been from the 2013 flood as we were there Xmas 2013 when I saw that stuff. I don't know San Antonio well but she lives a couple miles from seaworld
Townsend rd seems to ring a bell
Quoting 84. Tazmanian:

holy we OMG raw T # is now at 8.0 there never been a storm in the E PAC that had a raw T # of 8.0

Hurricane 20E


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 15:38:52 N Lon : 104:47:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 8.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.7 degrees


Wow...8.0! That's higher than Marie!
With Patricia reaching major hurricane strength this year now ties 1992 for the most Majors in the eastern and central Pacific.
OMG recon is on the way


Link



this is going too be fun and good timeing
NHC says Patrica could become a CAT 5 tonight!!!
The NHC is not upgrading it to a cat 5 just yet.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
700 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 104.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 104.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
Patricia now the most intense EPAC storm of the year with a 934 mb pressure.
Can't believe they're flying into this. Better rush than being a fighter pilot. God's speed to them, can't wait to see what the data tell us about intensity.
Quoting 93. tiggerhurricanes2001:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 104.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph


Wow, look at that pressure!
the rate this storm is getting stronger and if other recon is going out right now then we may need other SPECIAL ADVISORY
Remember when they flew into Wilma? 'Twas a dark and scary night...
Quoting 97. Tazmanian:

the rate this storm is getting stronger and if other recon is going out right now then we may need other SPECIAL ADVISORY


Let's hope so.
Quoting 86. Sandcat:

Townsend rd seems to ring a bell


Hmmm...I found a Townsend Road towards downtown, not near SeaWorld. It's about a block from Olmos Creek and Olmos Dam. The creek is decent sized (but dry most of the time) and has a dedicated flood plain called Olmos Basin. The flood plain doubles as a decent sized park.
Quoting 98. Barefootontherocks:

Remember when they flew into Wilma? 'Twas a dark and scary night...


Dr. Master's flight when he worked with the hurricane hunters and flew into Hugo was harrowing and a close call. Clearly most of us know not every flight returns. Brave and dedicated souls.
CDO cloud tops are cooling. Not good.


Quoting 102. TimSoCal:

CDO cloud tops are cooling. Not good.




It's still strengthening...
I see no evidence of recon currently en route.

There are currently no aircraft reconnaissance missions in progress.
(via tropical tidbits)
Quoting 102. TimSoCal:

CDO cloud tops are cooling. Not good.





yep and with a new up of this the raw T # is still maxed out at 8.0 may be 8.1 right now

Hurricane 20E


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 15:48:24 N Lon : 104:51:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 8.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : +0.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.8 degrees


never before has there ever been a storm with a raw T # 8.0


cant wait for the recon too get in there i this hop the storm is not too strong too a point they cant get in there too do what they need too do this storm right now may have winds of 185 too 195 mph right now this storm is no 150 mph winds
Quoting 104. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I see no evidence of recon currently en route.

There are currently no aircraft reconnaissance missions in progress.





you have too uesd the back up site

Link
Quoting 106. Tazmanian:




you have too uesd the back up site

Link

Thanks taz.
What are the top wind speeds in the EPAC ever?
Not every day that you see a raw T-number of 8.0. Pressure on this thing is probably sub-900mb. The satellite signature is absolutely sublime.
That plane is headed NNW (337).... from Google Earth
Quoting 58. PlazaRed:


Do you think there will be enough time before interaction with the land for Patricia to become a Cat 5?


I think it's already a cat. 5.
Quoting 108. DeepSeaRising:

What are the top wind speeds in the EPAC ever?


Somewhere above 185 I think.
Quoting 108. DeepSeaRising:

What are the top wind speeds in the EPAC ever?



Wikipedia shows Linda in 1997, which was the other El Nino. Shows peak winds at 185 and pressure of 902.
wait WHUT???
Quoting 109. MiamiHurricanes09:

Not every day that you see a raw T-number of 8.0. Pressure on this thing is probably sub-900mb. The satellite signature is absolutely sublime.


Are we beginning to talk about the strongest storm ever in the EPAC? Sub 900mb? I've always respected your knowledge and know you would never lightly say such a thing. Starting to look like one of the strongest storms ever seen, have to wait for the data to either back that up or not.
Quoting 109. MiamiHurricanes09:

Not every day that you see a raw T-number of 8.0. Pressure on this thing is probably sub-900mb. The satellite signature is absolutely sublime.


That would be a record, I believe. Lowest pressure in the East Pacific was 902mb from Linda in '97.
EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
Quoting 79. PedleyCA:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211526
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 21 OCTOBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-148....


Looks like this is the latest update.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 22 OCTOBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-149

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 23/1800Z
B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA
C. 23/1430Z
D. 18.0N 105.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: NOAA WB-57 IS FLYING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
AROUND PATRICIA TODAY WITH A 22/1600Z TAKEOFF FROM
HARLINGEN. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000FT. DROPS: 80
ANTICIPATED. TOMORROW'S TAKEOFF 23/1500Z FOR PATRICIA
WITH 84 DROPS ANTICIPATED.
Quoting 114. aquak9:

wait WHUT???
This is what happens when you're not glued to the blog 24/7. :-)
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,


140 kts. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a Cat 5.
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,



and still getting strong
Quoting 120. TimSoCal:



140 kts. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a Cat 5.


we need to wait in tell 10pm too find out for sure
Quoting 120. TimSoCal:



140 kts. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a Cat 5.


And she's not slowing down yet.
i think the next recon is 2am
0z SHIPS shows Patricia peaking at 161kts in the next 12 hours. We're dealing with some very special territory here.
Quoting 82. STICK4816:

This is a beautiful storm, though it is unfortunate it must threaten land.


The swells must already be tremendous along the coast. Anyone know of any relevant beach cams?
Quoting 125. MAweatherboy1:

0z SHIPS shows Patricia peaking at 161kts in the next 12 hours. We're dealing with some very special territory here.


Goodness, what the heck does that equal out to in mph?
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
RIP Puerto Vallerta down south to Manzanillo....
Quoting 127. SSL1441:



Goodness, what the heck does that equal out to in mph?



some where around 175 too 185 area
Quoting 129. Tazmanian:




some where around 175 too 185 area


According to google, around 185.25 or so.
Quoting 119. sar2401:

This is what happens when you're not glued to the blog 24/7. :-)
I swear I turn my back on ya'll for just a few hours and you let THIS happen.
Who's i9n charge of EPAC right now, huh?

Taz?? Weren't you supposed to be watching over the EPAC?

Pedley? What about you? You're part of the EPAC crew- How did this thing go rogue?
Quoting 127. SSL1441:



Goodness, what the heck does that equal out to in mph?


185, so it would tie 1997 Linda's record.
Quoting 125. MAweatherboy1:

0z SHIPS shows Patricia peaking at 161kts in the next 12 hours. We're dealing with some very special territory here.
That would tie with Linda as strongest winds ever in EPAC, and strongest hurricane to hit Mexico ever
Quoting 125. MAweatherboy1:

0z SHIPS shows Patricia peaking at 161kts in the next 12 hours. We're dealing with some very special territory here.
I think that peak is reasonable by the SHIPS, Patricia should be encountering increasing windshear after that point.

Quoting 128. Camerooski:

RIP Puerto Vallerta down south to Manzanillo....



i sure hop they are ready for whats too come at this time i would this get the hack out of there


any one no how are the building codes there?
Quoting 59. 62901IL:



What storm? Looks good though

Typhoon Champi, accelerating into the westerlies, forecast to dive into an occlusion near the Aleutians.
Quoting 134. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think that peak is reasonable by the SHIPS, Patricia should be encountering increasing windshear after that point.


Yep..But will be moving along with the shear, so it may not weaken much.
Quoting 134. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think that peak is reasonable by the SHIPS, Patricia should be encountering increasing windshear after that point.



I have hope that it could weaken quickly before landfall. Shear gets very high in 24 hours or so. Probably still a major hurricane at landfall, but not nearly at this extreme intensity. Obviously worth taking very seriously for all interests in the path though.
Quoting 134. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think that peak is reasonable by the SHIPS, Patricia should be encountering increasing windshear after that point.


I also noticed some much lower dewpoints in Baja and Mazatlan. There's likely to be a sharp precip boundary to the northwest of the core as dry high desert air is drawn into the storm.
Quoting 125. MAweatherboy1:

0z SHIPS shows Patricia peaking at 161kts in the next 12 hours. We're dealing with some very special territory here.
185 mph, with gusts 215 maybe.
2 1/2 days from now... what a quick transition!
found a puertovallarta web cam


Link

Quoting 138. MAweatherboy1:


I have hope that it could weaken quickly before landfall. Shear gets very high in 24 hours or so. Probably still a major hurricane at landfall, but not nearly at this extreme intensity. Obviously worth taking very seriously for all interests in the path though.


If we can get an EWRC and shear to double-whammy it at the right time, hopefully that will knock it down considerably.
Patricia just keeps on gaining strength.
The sun is going down on Patricia. Click pic for loop.
The angle at which it is approaching will allow for more moisture to be maintained from the west.

most uesd back up site now there a new recon on the way


Link
Quoting 137. hydrus:

Yep..But will be moving along with the shear, so it may not weaken much.
That would be the Wilma rule it moves in tandem with the shear. Sorry the windshear map is not showing on CIMSS website all the images on the EPAC view is out.
Quoting 58. PlazaRed:


Do you think there will be enough time before interaction with the land for Patricia to become a Cat 5?
Yep..There is a good possibility Pat will have to regenerate another eyewall before landfall. If not, there will likely be a catastrophe if one of the big cities gets a direct hit.
Hurricane Olaf appears to have quickly turned from a NNW course to a NNE heading. Bounced off the old Magic Hawaiian Hurricane Shield.


Olaf still has an impressive structure.
Quoting 151. hydrus:




They look much better than that. This will be a deadly storm...
Quoting 128. Camerooski:

RIP Puerto Vallerta down south to Manzanillo....
Let's not go overboard with the RIP stuff. Patricia only has hurricane force winds out to 30 miles from the center right now. As long as that remains the case and as long the storm follows the current track, Manzanillo will probably only see TS force winds. Puerto Vallarta is now more at risk with the westward shift in the models, but the storm should still pass far enough east that PV will remain on the weak side. Any further shift west will be big trouble for PV but, of all the coastal cities, it's about the best built, and the civil defense system is the best organized. PV and coastal areas of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit are being evacuated as I write this. PV has opened 18 shelters, and the civil defense agencies expect to have 50,000 people, including 20,000 tourists, evacuated by tomorrow afternoon. It seems as if the federal, state, and city agencies are doing the best they can to prepare for this storm.

BTW, this blog is now showing up as the sixth or seventh selection in Google when you search for Hurricane Patricia. It would be a good idea for all of us to modulate what we write about the possible effects of this storm.
Lot of energy showing up out there in the Pacific.
Quoting 146. Grothar:

The angle at which it is approaching will allow for more moisture to be maintained from the west.


Quoting 101. DeepSeaRising:



Dr. Master's flight when he worked with the hurricane hunters and flew into Hugo was harrowing and a close call. Clearly most of us know not every flight returns. Brave and dedicated souls.
Was kind of scary at wu in those Wilma wee hours because the (way more primitive then) HH data feed went down. (Add: Maybe you were here.) This was a ways before landfall and the HH did take a dive, so to speak, when they found the pinhole eye. The middle of the night crew was here. Pure drama. Should be still in the blog archives - if we were in Doc M's blog and not leftyy420's. Lefty's blog may have been removed from the list due to inactivity or something.

Anyways, safe journeys to the HH this overnight. And thank government goodness and Levi32's tropicaltidbits.com for the much improved data feeds.

Ps. Just found the link Taz left to the "backup site" for HH. Thanks, Taz!
This season will likely soon overtake 1990 and attain the second highest ACE on record for the east and central Pacific.
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Patricia with 150-mph winds headed
for southwestern Mexico...
Summary of 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.8n 104.8w
about 225 mi...360 km S of Manzanillo Mexico
about 325 mi...520 km S of Cabo Corrientes Mexico
maximum sustained winds...150 mph...240 km/h
present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...934 mb...27.58 inches
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW


raw T # is now 8.2


Hurricane 20E

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 15:49:36 N Lon : 104:53:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 942.9mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.9 degrees
Exactly! ...right into that perfect cd/donut=ominous =catastrophic CAT-5!
I believe a raw T# of 8.2 is the highest ever given in the ADT era. Haiyan reached T8.1.
come on recon fly faster this waiting is killing me
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
924 mb..down two more and it will have the same pressure as Hurricane Andrew when it struck South Florida.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.8 West. Patricia is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or evening.

Satellite images indicate that Patricia has continued to intensify
and maximum sustained winds have reached near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia could become a
category 5 hurricane overnight, and is expected to remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
Quoting 160. Tazmanian:

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW


raw T # is now 8.2


Hurricane 20E

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 15:49:36 N Lon : 104:53:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 942.9mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.9 degrees
I'm not sure how long it's been since an 8.2.... holy crap
i this hop there no EXTREME TURBULENCE going on but with this storm so storng there may be the recon may have too ABORTED MISSION
Quoting 139. BayFog:

I also noticed some much lower dewpoints in Baja and Mazatlan. There's likely to be a sharp precip boundary to the northwest of the core as dry high desert air is drawn into the storm.
There is a big area of dry air just to the NW of Patricia. It appears this dry air is already having a slight effect on the edges of the storm now. I'd feel a little more confident about the dry air disrupting Patricia to some extent if it wasn't for the very tight and compact central core.Still, dry air and shear have wrecked more than one storm. All we can do is hope that will be the case with Patricia.

Quoting 167. Camerooski:

I'm not sure how long it's been since an 8.2.... holy crap


Last I remember was Haiyan.
Quoting 162. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I believe a raw T# of 8.2 is the highest ever given in the ADT era. Haiyan reached T8.1.

It should also be noted that the raw 8.2 given out by ADT version 8.2.1 is not the same version that was run on Haiyan. That was version 8.1.4, which is what the SSD is currently running on Patricia. Right now, their raws are at 7.4.

20E (Patricia) SSD ADT File List
Quoting 169. hydrus:


The map is way too far south,. Acapulco is not threatened by Patricia except for some increase in rain. Manzanillo, which near the southern extent of highest TS force winds, is off the map to the NW.
Quoting 154. sar2401:

Let's not go overboard with the RIP stuff. Patricia only has hurricane force winds out to 30 miles from the center right now. As long as that remains the case and as long the storm follows the current track, Manzanillo will probably only see TS force winds. Puerto Vallarta is now more at risk with the westward shift in the models, but the storm should still pass far enough east that PV will remain on the weak side. Any further shift west will be big trouble for PV but, of all the coastal cities, it's about the best built, and the civil defense system is the best organized. PV and coastal areas of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit are being evacuated as I write this. PV has opened 18 shelters, and the civil defense agencies expect to have 50,000 people, including 20,000 tourists, evacuated by tomorrow afternoon. It seems as if the federal, state, and city agencies are doing the best they can to prepare for this storm.

BTW, this blog is now showing up as the sixth or seventh selection in Google when you search for Hurricane Patricia. It would be a good idea for all of us to modulate what we write about the possible effects of this storm.
Puerto Vallarta has had a lot of big money injected into the local economy for many years, including a lot from US interests, similar to Cancun. This is largely due to the continuously booming tourist industry. In fact, most of the city has been created over just the past 30 years. So yes, much of the construction engineering there is solid and in part due to the risk from hurricanes, the building codes are mostly very modern and strong.

As a result of all of this, if Patricia were to make a direct hit on PV, the damage there would probably be a lot less than one might expect. Again, this mirrors the experience in Cancun and Cozumel with storms such as Gilbert in '88 and Wilma in '05. Predictions of catastrophic destruction which were made ahead of the landfalls of those two storms did not come close to panning out. There was damage aplenty but the local economies recovered quickly and the major infrastructure was not badly affected.
Quoting 173. sar2401:

The map is way too far south,. Acapulco is not threatened by Patricia except for some increase in rain. Manzanillo, which near the southern extent of highest TS force winds, is off the map to the NW.
It was the best one i could find..i promise, i do better next time.
Quoting 170. sar2401:

There is a big area of dry air just to the NW of Patricia. It appears this dry air is already having a slight effect on the edges of the storm now. I'd feel a little more confident about the dry air disrupting Patricia to some extent if it wasn't for the very tight and compact central core.Still, dry air and shear have wrecked more than one storm. All we can do is hope that will be the case with Patricia.




Not enough shear for dry air to really do anything.
Quoting 172. 1900hurricane:


It should also be noted that the raw 8.2 given out by ADT version 8.2.1 is not the same version that was run on Haiyan. That was version 8.1.4, which is what the SSD is currently running on Patricia. Right now, their raws are at 7.4.

20E (Patricia) SSD ADT File List
Thanks. I thought that there was a different version of ADT being run now but I couldn't put my finger on the data. As bad (or good, meteorologically) as Patricia looks, I think 7.4 is probably a more reasonable number.
Quoting 176. Emancipator:



Not enough shear for dry air to really do anything.
There should be increasing shear for the 12 or so hours before landfall. I'm hoping it will be enough drive some dry air in, at least at the storm edges. I never underestimate the effects of dry air once it starts getting pulled into a storm, even a storm as intense as Patricia.
Quoting 175. hydrus:

It was the best one i could find..i promise, i do better next time.
LOL. Sorry, didn't mean to come across as scolding you. :-)
Seems to be a few good webcams in Puerto Vallarta This one is in B/W or maybe this is its night view. The cabana boy might want to take down that umbrella.

Link
Name: Manzanillo International
Updated: Oct 22 5:49 PM PDT
Mesonet: MEXICO
Temp:84° F29° C
Dew Point:84° F29° C
Relh:100 %
Wind:SE@16 mph 25 kph
Altimeter:29.70 in
Weather:Mod Rain
We sure have had some pinholes this season. I will say, however, Joaquin's outflow is way back that Patricia's, whereas Pat has a better eye.
Joaquin has a better convective canopy, and Pat has a more circular, donut shaped eyewall. Either way, really great looking hurricanes.
Quoting 178. sar2401:

There should be increasing shear for the 12 or so hours before landfall. I'm hoping it will be enough drive some dry air in, at least at the storm edges. I never underestimate the effects of dry air once it starts getting pulled into a storm, even a storm as intense as Patricia.


Ok, wasnt aware it was gonna increase to moderate range.
Quoting 170. sar2401:

There is a big area of dry air just to the NW of Patricia. It appears this dry air is already having a slight effect on the edges of the storm now. I'd feel a little more confident about the dry air disrupting Patricia to some extent if it wasn't for the very tight and compact central core.Still, dry air and shear have wrecked more than one storm. All we can do is hope that will be the case with Patricia.


a little dry air won' do anything to Patricia
I love this photo of Joaquin. Note that very crisp norhern edge, and that eye.
With many models still moving the remnants into the Gulf, there still might be some small development.

Yeap........... this is a Category 5. I'll personally be very surprised if its not upgraded to a category 5 by the 10pm CDT advisory.

Quoting 187. Grothar:

With many models still moving the remnants into the Gulf, there still might be some small development.



Yep, navgem,CMC,ECMWF,GFS have been indicating that scenario in their latest runs.
Large portion of Mexico to receive at least TS winds.

Little cheesy but easy to read on here:


Quoting 175. hydrus:

It was the best one i could find..i promise, i do better next time.
Quoting 188. Tornado6042008X:

Yeap........... this is a Category 5. I'll personally be very surprised if its not upgraded to a category 5 by the 10pm CDT advisory.



Small eye indicates that it is strengthening,not good.
Puerto Vallarta would appear to be protected from the worst surf by the headland of Cabo Corrientes to the west of the city, but it remains to be seen what might happen if the core and the eye pass overhead or just to the northwest. There's also the issue of runoff from the surrounding highlands.
Wind (1 min. avg.):

140 knots (~161 mph | 72 m/s | 259 km/h)

Pressure:

924 mb (27.29 inHg | 924 hPa)
Triple play with texas rain. I would bet that some part of texas will get a rain bomb and have serious impact. Not very often you hear about 8, 10 or 12 inches.
When's the next recon into Patricia? We might be presented with an extraordinary rare circumstance where a recon could actually gauge the strength of such a violent tropical cyclone at peak (unlike with Haiyan).
Quoting 184. Camerooski:

a little dry air won' do anything to Patricia
It's more than a little. We'll see what happens, but I've seen impressive storms, especially in the Pacific, become a lot less impressive with the injection of what is seemingly a small amount of dry air. Even more than shear alone, dry air is deadly to a hurricane if it's at all levels of the storm. I just hope I'm right for the sake of the people in Mexico.
Quoting 170. sar2401:

There is a big area of dry air just to the NW of Patricia. It appears this dry air is already having a slight effect on the edges of the storm now. I'd feel a little more confident about the dry air disrupting Patricia to some extent if it wasn't for the very tight and compact central core.Still, dry air and shear have wrecked more than one storm. All we can do is hope that will be the case with Patricia.



That very compact core is just about a perfect fit if the storm decides to misbehave and shoot up the Gulf of California.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 15:57:14 N Lon : 104:59:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 940.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +4.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.0 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:

When's the next recon into Patricia? We might be presented with an extraordinary rare circumstance where a recon could actually gauge the strength of such a violent tropical cyclone at peak (unlike with Haiyan).
I'm still sure that Haiyan was rivaling Tip's minimum surface pressure when it was at it's strongest.
Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:

When's the next recon into Patricia? We might be presented with an extraordinary rare circumstance where a recon could actually gauge the strength of such a violent tropical cyclone at peak (unlike with Haiyan).



Link


there on there way now they be there vary soon and good timing
Quoting 198. sar2401:

It's more than a little. We'll see what happens, but I've seen impressive storms, especially in the Pacific, become a lot less impressive with the injection of what is seemingly a small amount of dry air. Even more than shear alone, dry air is deadly to a hurricane if it's at all levels of the storm. I just hope I'm right for the sake of the people in Mexico.

Dry air causes massive evaporative cooling, and cooling kills hurricanes.
Gee"

One knows where to find the recon POD, as its been posted at least a 1000 times.


I'm more concerned with the impact,instead of the "Gee Gomers' itsa cat 5 thing.


Impact counts.

Saw a Cat 3 impact with a 30 ft surge once.


Yeah, dem SSS #'s really have it down.






Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:

When's the next recon into Patricia? We might be presented with an extraordinary rare circumstance where a recon could actually gauge the strength of such a violent tropical cyclone at peak (unlike with Haiyan).
Looks like 1430 UTZ. It's now 0216 UTZ, so about 12 hours. There was a WB-57 doing very high altitude recon that ended about 2130 UTZ. The plan was to drop 80 sondes, so it had the best chance of capturing Patricia's full strength.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 23/1800Z
B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA
C. 23/1430Z
D. 18.0N 105.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.
Quoting 206. sar2401:

Looks like 1430 UTZ. It's now 0216 UTZ, so about 12 hours. There was a WB-57 doing very high altitude recon that ended about 2130 UTZ. The plan was to drop 80 sondes, so it had the best chance of capturing Patricia's full strength.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 23/1800Z
B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA
C. 23/1430Z
D. 18.0N 105.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.



12hrs my foot the recon is on there way now


Link


see above you can see the recon plain heading too the storm this about to fly over mx now so sould be there any time now
Quoting 199. BayFog:


That very compact core is just about a perfect fit if the storm decides to misbehave and shoot up the Gulf of California.
Still hoping for the tropical storm up there before the season ends. :-) I don't think Patricia is going to be the one, but there are some more storms out there that just might make it yet.
Puerto Vallarta is a very safe tourist spot...there is no excuse for not having live reports tomorrow..

Ferocious
Taz does appear to be correct. AF303 appears to be heading towards Patricia.

Going to be the most insane hurricane hunter flight in a while, even more insane than Joaquin.
900 miles to go
recon now flying over main land mx sould be there with in the next hafe hr too 1hr
Quoting 211. CybrTeddy:

Taz does appear to be correct. AF303 appears to be heading towards Patricia.

Going to be the most insane hurricane hunter flight in a while, even more insane than Joaquin.



right but i this hop its not too insane too where they would have too abort mission
.
Are there any confirmed storm chasers or reporters tomorrow in Mexico so that we can see this live?.
Hate to be out of town when possible rain bomb coming, hope it sets up out west, fills the lakes, and only issues in low pop area's. From my perspective, while forcasted is under reported. No one really care's and changing plans.
Quoting 211. CybrTeddy:

Taz does appear to be correct. AF303 appears to be heading towards Patricia.

Going to be the most insane hurricane hunter flight in a while, even more insane than Joaquin.
I could fly a cat-3 if i had the chance, nothing more.
this is going too be a vary dangerous mission for the recon
Quoting 203. BayFog:


Dry air causes massive evaporative cooling, and cooling kills hurricanes.
Hurricane Rick (2009) was a good example of the combination of dry air and shear killing off a very large cat 5. It does happen, even with storm that look too strong to be affected. I have no idea if it will happen again with Patricia but I sure hope so.
Ok so I have to ask, why can't we see the recon flight on tropicaltidbits? Is it because this wasn't originally planned from what i'm seeing?
lol this is killing me

raw T # is 8.3 this is the highest i ever seen a raw T # in the e pac

Hurricane 20E


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 16:01:17 N Lon : 105:01:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.5mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.9 8.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -1.0C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.1 degrees


i sure hop the recon nos what they are getting in too tonight cant wait too see what deta shows once the recon reports start comeing in
Boy is this going to be exciting tracking tomorrow
What a beautiful loop... She's heading right at her next forecast point.
Patricia Short Floater - Infrared Channel 4 Imagery Loop
Add:
Hurricane Patricia unenhanced IR at 9:15 cdt
I really wouldn't be shocked to see this hit 170mph
am going too stay up later then i normly do there is no way in heck am i going too miss out on this recon mission
Quoting 225. MeteorologistTV:

I really wouldn't be shocked to see this hit 170mph




heck this storm could be pushing 200mph winds right now i this cant wait for the recon for the real time info
Patty's wound tight.
See, no one one on this blog cares, be main topic in 36/48 hours. Too long to wait? Not like weather service missed forecast, just dont know exactly where it will setup.
We're about to see a hurricane hunter penetrate a hurricane with a RAW T# of 8.3. (I get the adjusted value is lower, but still)

Wow.
Quoting 211. CybrTeddy:

Taz does appear to be correct. AF303 appears to be heading towards Patricia.

Going to be the most insane hurricane hunter flight in a while, even more insane than Joaquin.
I guess they added a flight for one of the Air Force C-130J's. I'll tell you what, these guys are AF reserve pilots, meaning their "real" job is probably flying for one of the airlines. It takes some big steel cajones to risk your life flying at night into an intensifying probably cat 5 hurricane. They are way braver as pilots than I ever was.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES



Please refer to post 195.
Quoting 229. centex:

See, no one one on this blog cares, be main topic in 36/48 hours. Too long to wait? Not like weather service missed forecast, just dont know exactly where it will setup.
I think you happened to pop in during the blog episode called "Waiting with baited breath* for Patricia recon." TX rainfall was being discussed earlier by several here (add: in this blog and previous one) and it is also a topic of this blog - discussed above. We care. I do at least.
:)
*spelling edit
Quoting 231. CybrTeddy:

We're about to see a hurricane hunter penetrate a hurricane with a RAW T# of 8.3. (I get the adjusted value is lower, but still)

Wow.


i this hop they dont have too abort the mission this is going too be a vary dangerous mission for the recon



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
at 1000 PM CDT (0300 utc), the distinct eye of Hurricane Patricia
was located near latitude 16.2 north, longitude 105.1 west. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast Friday afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the Hurricane Warning
area Friday afternoon or evening.
Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind
scale. While Patricia is expected to weaken some on Friday, it is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through
landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).

Quoting 221. SouthCentralTx:

Ok so I have to ask, why can't we see the recon flight on tropicaltidbits? Is it because this wasn't originally planned from what i'm seeing?
I think so. I believe they are flying out of Harlingen, Texas for Patricia, so it's also a long flight, probably about 3-4 hours depending on how the headwinds are and what they set for economical cruise. Even with their additional wing tanks, this is a mission that's going to get close to maximum radius depending on how long they spend in the storm. Nope, way braver than me.
I tell you what, I couldn't imagine being in the path of this monster. Prayers for those down in Mexico. Please, for the love of all, get out of the way. This isn't a test.

Now that is out of the way. What a beautiful satellite presentation. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see 180 sustained once recon gets in there. It could be even higher than that. What a storm. This is going to have a significant impact on the weather in Texas for the next 4 or so days. Stay safe everyone.
NHC is forecasting a Category 5 landfall into Mexico... this is going to be bad. I'd imagine an EWRC will happen before too long that'll drop it down to 125-130 knots, but this is still going to be rough.
Quoting 234. Barefootontherocks:

I think you happened to pop in during the blog episode called "Waiting with baited breathe for Patricia recon." TX rainfall was being discussed earlier by several here, and it is also a topic of this blog - discussed above. We care. I do at least.
:)
Understand, but looks like hyping mex landfall and ignoring us
Impact with triple threat.
Water Vapor:


Cloud Tops:


David I feel the same way. Praying for them...I am scared for them. Hope they get out of harms way.

Then there is the other part of me who likes the storms...wow is Patricia beautiful. This storm will be a concern for many days to come in the different forms it takes. I don;t see how the amount of rain forecasted for Houston is so low with the storm(what is left of it), looks like may ride up the coast feeding off the gulf. Everyone from Mexico to whoever is in the path until it is off the east coast needs to pay attention. Here is hoping for a drought buster with ZERO casualties.


Quoting 239. DavidHOUTX:

I tell you what, I couldn't imagine being in the path of this monster. Prayers for those down in Mexico. Please, for the love of all, get out of the way. This isn't a test.

Now that is out of the way. What a beautiful satellite presentation. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see 180 sustained once recon gets in there. It could be even higher than that. What a storm. This is going to have a significant impact on the weather in Texas for the next 4 or so days. Stay safe everyone.
When is the last time the hurricane hunters entered a category 5 storm
I know that joaquin was close. But like an official cat 5
Quoting 245. meiscat:

When is the last time the hurricane hunters entered a category 5 storm
I know that joaquin was close. But like an official cat 5


Marie I think...? If not then Felix in 2007.

EDIT: If we're talking about Atlantic/Eastern Pacific storms, that is.
Quoting 238. sar2401:

I think so. I believe they are flying out of Harlingen, Texas for Patricia, so it's also a long flight, probably about 3-4 hours depending on how the headwinds are and what they set for economical cruise. Even with their additional wing tanks, this is a mission that's going to get close to maximum radius depending on how long they spend in the storm. Nope, way braver than me.


According to Google Earth, it looks like they came out of Louisiana or Mississippi.
Quoting 245. meiscat:

When is the last time the hurricane hunters entered a category 5 storm
I know that joaquin was close. But like an official cat 5

Typhoon Megi in 2010. Hurricane Felix in 2007 before that.
Observation Time: 2:46Z on Friday
Coordinates: 22.3N 98.7W
Location: 55 statue miles (88 km) to the W (275°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.

Patricia has to be one of the best looking tropical cyclones I've ever seen; according to the NHC's latest forecast discussion, the only other EPac tropical cyclone during the satellite era to intensify this rapidly was Linda of 1997, the strongest pacific hurricane ever. The winds of this thing jumped 100 miles in 24 hours and dropped more than 70 milibars in that time period. That's downright incredible.

That being said, Patricia is a very scary storm for parts of southwestern Mexico. Unless it ERC's tomorrow, this hurricane could easily be the second category 5 to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico in recorded history. May god be with them.
Quoting 241. CybrTeddy:

NHC is forecasting a Category 5 landfall into Mexico... this is going to be bad. I'd imagine an EWRC will happen before too long that'll drop it down to 125-130 knots, but this is still going to be rough.
Show data that supports this? I just checked and now forecast as cat 4 at landfall, why hype a bad syorm?
Quoting 242. centex:

Understand, but looks like hyping mex landfall and ignoring us
Impact with triple threat.


They're gonna get blasted by a hurricane. you guys are gonna get flooding, and lots of it by the looks of things. Last estimates I saw put you guys around 13 inches I think...
Quoting 252. centex:

Show data that supports this? I just checked and now forecast as cat 4 at landfall, why hype a bad syorm?


I'm sorry, I misread completely (it's 11pm and I've had a long day). It's predicted to be a Category 4 at landfall by the NHC.
Uhhhh holy batman nipples, wasn't Patricia an invest only yesterday?!

Poor Mexico, this is an extremely dangerous scenario, what an epic bout of intensification, and that is one distinct eye within a massive ball of intense convection... wow.
Tropicaltidbits.com is now showing the new recon mission
Perhaps the EWRC will occur at the same time the dry air gets pulled in. They always seem to weaken to some degree before landfall.
259. IDTH
Wow, that is one impressive Hurricane, my goodness, wasn't this just an invest yesterday?! Well back to my work, may (yes religion please don't get offended) god be with Mexico, I hope people are prepared.
I checked out the models earlier today and it showed Patricia separating and her low going westward by day 3 and a new low forming by Texas. I would watch this carefully.
Patricia is now a cat 5.
Just watched one of the local mets here in Houston. Serious, serious threat potential. One of the models painted out up to a foot of rain in parts of my county(Brazoria) and Galveston. He pretty much said it is going to flood...the models keep being persistent. As long as everyone pays attention and do what they should, there should not be any casualties. God I hope not!
Cone of Uncertainty, Mexico's National Meteorological Services:



Wow, you don't see too many like this in the Western Hemisphere.

Dr. M.
Amazing and frightening Dr. Masters.
When Jeff comments on a hurricane at night and says wow. You know it's serious...
Slightly off topic, but as this is the first likely Cat. 5 landfall in North America since 2007, how many cyclones have landfalled as Cat. 5 in the WPAC since then?
It's what we don't want to see if something like this is going to hit land. It went from tropical storm to major in record time. Then took a break. Then went from major hurricane to absolute superstorm in record time. I'm sad about this. Oh my. All the best in her way!!!!
Well, was looking forward to next season, but after this. NOT
Hope this is not a prelude to how tropical storms behave in this era of climate change!
I can't wait until tomorrow
about 400 miles to go(on center)
Puerto Vallarta is located at the mouth of the Rio Ameca, which runs right through the city. That river drains a considerable mountain watershed that's likely about to absorb a Noachian torrent if this storm moves as forecasted. I'm not sure how they can really fully prepare for that other than by moving people away from the low ground.
Finished a blog..current flooding event just getting under way in TX. Electric poles are down and streets flooded in MCCULLOCH, TX. Cars are being lost and at least one water rescue has already occurred in Jones and Fisher. In Sterling, TX the river was rising a foot every 12 minutes. Whole trailers, one an RV and the other a double wide floated away in Rankin, TX..as seen in the video below.


Raw: Severe Weather Strikes West Texas by:
Associated Press
My prayers to the people of Mexico!!!!!
Olaf pushing up some cold tops again as it drifts northward.
Wow, this is textbook!

Sigh... craziness. I got online about an hour ago and started trying to catch up on this, stunned by Patricia's sudden "explosion" enough to start telling my partner about things she barely cares about... about Dvoraks, and Wilma comparisons, and Hurricane Linda, and the like. I read that the HH are heading in there and I worry about those pilots and crew a lot, too, though am totally "happy" they're going into it when it might be at its strongest... unlike Haiyan, where we'll never know its peak intensity and lowest CP. :-(

The danged thing looks totally annular, and its 10 NM eye is about as small as it gets, and now Dr. Masters is coming on at midnight to post a great image of this very powerful storm... how could any tropical storm "aficionado" not feel excited, and more than a bit scared, by what this could mean... both in the next week and for many times and places down the road?

We keep seeing things we've never seen before, and things that show us just how extreme our atmosphere can become, irrespective of the reasons. And that's why I, for one at least, keep coming back here to see what all of you think and feel, and why the weather around this country, and the world, still retains such a sense of "beyond our control", and "gahh, I never expected that would happen!" to all of us who care about such things.

Jo
The eye seems to have the sometimes 'death star' written on it. Look at the IR image.
HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST THU OCT 22 2015

CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SOME AROUND THE RAGGED EYE OF OLAF TODAY...
AND A ROUGHLY 10 NM DIAMETER PUKA IS STILL EVIDENT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MICROWAVE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN THAT THE EYEWALL
REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE.

Puka??!!!
Quoting 280. BayFog:

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST THU OCT 22 2015

CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SOME AROUND THE RAGGED EYE OF OLAF TODAY...
AND A ROUGHLY 10 NM DIAMETER PUKA IS STILL EVIDENT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MICROWAVE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN THAT THE EYEWALL
REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE.

Puka??!!!


Hawaiian word.....hole
Quoting 247. CybrTeddy:



Marie I think...? If not then Felix in 2007.

EDIT: If we're talking about Atlantic/Eastern Pacific storms, that is.

They entered Megi in the West Pacific in 2010
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 248. PedleyCA:



According to Google Earth, it looks like they came out of Louisiana or Mississippi.

Yeah, I was finally able to get the mission data and they are flying out of their home base at Keesler in Biloxi MS. My quick and dirty distance calculation is about 1400 miles, so a 2800 mile round trip. A fully fueled up WC-130J including underwing tanks has a range about 3500 miles, including reserves. I don't know what they are planning for orbit time, but it can't be much more than an hour before they have to start heading back. The total flight time should be about ten hours. I don't know what the longest mission flight for a WC-130 has been but I imagine his one must be right at the top of the list. The fact the NHC requested a mission and the Air Force complied shows the importance being attached to flying a real cat 5 hurricane with sensors not available on previous missions into big storms. It also shows the dedication of the pilots and crew to make what I'm sure will be a hair raising nighttime flight across the continent and into a monster. God bless them all. I hope everything turns out safely and we get some amazing data back.
Quoting 280. BayFog:

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST THU OCT 22 2015

CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SOME AROUND THE RAGGED EYE OF OLAF TODAY...
AND A ROUGHLY 10 NM DIAMETER PUKA IS STILL EVIDENT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MICROWAVE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN THAT THE EYEWALL
REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE.

Puka??!!!
You never had a puka shell necklace?
Lol! Puka is Hawaiian for "hole." Very commonly used term in Hawaii.


Quoting 280. BayFog:

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST THU OCT 22 2015

CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SOME AROUND THE RAGGED EYE OF OLAF TODAY...
AND A ROUGHLY 10 NM DIAMETER PUKA IS STILL EVIDENT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MICROWAVE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN THAT THE EYEWALL
REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE.

Puka??!!!
Quoting 265. JeffMasters:



Wow, you don't see too many like this in the Western Hemisphere.

Dr. M.

Why is that, Doc?