WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

September 2015: Earth's Warmest Month in Recorded History, Says NOAA

By: Jeff Masters 3:40 PM GMT on October 21, 2015

September 2015 had the largest departure of temperature from average of any month among all 1629 months in the record that began in January 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. (Note that since July and August are typically the warmest months globally in absolute terms, September was not Earth's warmest month in that regard.) NASA rated September 2015 slightly cooler, as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling below September 2014's mark. September 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - September) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. September 2015 was the fifth consecutive month a monthly high temperature record has been set in NOAA's database, and the seventh month of the nine months so far in 2015. A potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continues to intensify, and strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it virtually assured that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record--with 2016 a good bet to exceed even 2015's warmth.

NOAA's top ten warmest global monthly departures from average
1) 0.90°C, Sep 2015
2) 0.89°C, Aug 2015
2) 0.89°C, Mar 2015
2) 0.89°C, Feb 2015
2) 0.89°C, Jan 2007
6) 0.87°C, Jun 2015
7) 0.86°C, Feb 1998
8) 0.85°C, May 2015
8) 0.85°C, Mar 2010
10) 0.84°C, Dec 2014


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2015, the warmest September for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across northeastern Africa stretching into the Middle East, part of southeastern Asia, most of the northern half of South America, and parts of central and eastern North America. Record warmth was also over much of the world's oceans, including the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, most of the Arabian Sea, and the waters surrounding Hawaii, where the warm waters are expected to cause a significant coral bleaching episode resulting in a large-scale die-off of coral. Record warm waters were also observed between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, which helped fuel Hurricane Joaquin's rapid intensification into a Category 4 storm in mid-September. A loss of 10 - 20% of all coral worldwide over the next few months is expected due to the record warm ocean temperatures causing a global bleaching event. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were tied for 3rd warmest in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and were the 5th warmest on record, according to RSS. The lowest 8 km of the atmosphere heats up dramatically in response to moderate to strong El Niño events, with a time lag of several months. The two warmest Septembers occurred during the El Niño events of 1998 and 2010.



Three billion-dollar weather disasters in September 2015
Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, according to the September 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: wildfires in Indonesia ($4 billion in losses, though more recent estimates put the damage at $14 billion); wildfires in California that cost at least $2 billion; and drought in Western Canada that has cost at least $1 billion through the end of September. With eighteen billion-dollar weather disasters through September 2015, and two more already during the first half of October--flooding in South Carolina of at least $2 billion, and at least $4.2 billion in damage from China's Typhoon Mujigae--Earth is on pace for an average number of such disasters, compared to statistics from the past ten years.


Disaster 1. Multiple wildfires raged across California during much of September, with the Valley Fire, northwest of San Francisco, and the Butte Fire, southeast of Sacramento, the most destructive of the fires. The Valley Fire--the third most damaging in state history, at $1.5 billion--left four people dead and destroyed 1,958 homes and other structures. The Butte Fire left two people dead and destroyed 475 homes, and was the seventh-most damaging wildfire in state history, at $450 million. This year is now the costliest and damaging year for wildfires in the United States since 2007. In this image, we see burned out cars from the Valley Fire's rampage through Lake County, California; the fire started on September 12, 2015. Image credit: wunderphotographer noneinc.


Disaster 2. As discussed in detail in the Jeff Masters October 13 post, "Costliest (and Deadliest?) Disaster of 2015: Indonesia's $14 Billion Fires", the El Niño event of 2015 has brought devastating drought and fires to Indonesia and neighboring countries. This year's fires in Indonesia are on track be their most expensive disaster in history, beating the $9.3 billion price tag of the 1997 - 1998 fires. In this photo, we see buildings blanketed with thick smog in Singapore on September 24, 2015. Singapore's air quality reached 'very unhealthy' levels on September 24, forcing schools to close, as thick smog from agricultural fires in Indonesia's neighboring Sumatra Island choked the city-state. Image credit: ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 3. Drought conditions continued to intensify across western Canada during September as a lack of rainfall wreaked havoc on agricultural interests. The province of Alberta was particularly affected, where a disaster was declared after more than 80 percent of farmers reported sustaining crop loss during the year. Damage estimates were $1 billion and growing. In this image, we see smoke from drought-aided forest fires over British Columbia settling into valleys on July 8, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic sea ice falls to 4th lowest September extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during September 2015 was the 4th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Sea ice extent reached its annual minimum extent on September 11, bottoming out at the 4th lowest extent on record. Unfavorable winds resulted in large losses of thick, multi-year ice in 2015; there was a 31% depletion of the multi-year ice cover this summer for the Arctic as a whole, compared to only 12% in 2013 and 38% during the record sea ice loss year of 2012.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for September 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 47.8°C (118.0°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, September 15
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -42.8°C (-45.0°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, September 30
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 43.0°C (109.4°F) at Villamontes, Bolivia, September 15
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -82.9°C (-117.2°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, September 13

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in September 2015
Krosno (Poland) max. 34.5°C, September 1
Anguilla Airport (Anguilla, United Kingdom) max. 33.7°C, September 9. New Territorial record high for Anguilla. Improved to 33.8°C on September 12.
Charlotte Amalie (U.S. Virgin Islands,USA) max. 35.6°C, September 11. New Territorial record high for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Havana (Cuba) max. 38.2°C, September 12
Ibague (Colombia) max. 36.8°C, September 16
Lerida (Colombia) max. 39.4°C, September 22
Goias (Brazil) max. 41.9°C, September 24
Peixe (Brazil) max. 40.7°C, September 26
Posse (Brazil) max. 38.4°C, September 26
Jerusalen (Colombia) max. 41.8°C, September 26
Jabalcon (Colombia) max. 42.4°C, September 27



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of October 15, 2015, fourteen nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2015, and two (Israel and Cyprus) set all-time cold temperature records. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page.

Kudos also to Mr. Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for September 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in September 2015" sections.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. wpb
recon pass 995 mb 115kt
the NHC has it going up too 150 mph has peak but i think it could have a ch of cat 5 if it can clear out its pine hole eye
Quoting 460. wpb:

can someone post mexico weather radar site. think there site near hurricane

Here you go. But it's not very helpful right now.
Looks like Extreme to Catastrophic damage underway for Mexico and tourist resorts.
GFS has whats left of Patricia offshore Texas in 4 days..Talk about dangerous possibilities.

Quoting 505. hydrus:

GFS has whats left of Patricia offshore Texas in 4 days..Talk about dangerous possibilities.




If it shifts further south could we see a gulf reformation?
To go along with the special advisory; amazing looking hurricane:




Quoting 504. RitaEvac:

Looks like Extreme to Catastrophic damage underway for Mexico and tourist resorts.
El Nino has been tough for people on the Mexico's Pacific Coast..
Quoting 506. FunnelVortex:



If it shifts further south could we see a gulf reformation?
If there is no shear.. should be little if any.
Quoting 508. hydrus:

El Nino has been tough for people on the Mexico's Pacific Coast..



really? i think MX e pacific coast has been lucky so far this season all so not one land falling storm other then a weak TD
With great outflow and underneath an anti-cyclone at the moment; have to see if that protects the storm from the high shear bands as it gains latitude:

Quoting 467. 62901IL:



You can see some dry air in the eye...what could that mean?




Here's my question: Could you fit Hurricane Danny inside the eye? Certainly Marco from a few years ago could.
Wow that escalated quickly.
Quoting 510. Tazmanian:




really? i think MX e pacific coast has been lucky so far this season all so not one land falling storm other then a weak TD
Hello Taz..I meant going back decades..Seems every time there is a El Nino, they get whacked with a major or intense and deadly flooding events...
Quoting 513. TimSoCal:

Wow that escalated quickly.
90 degree water with no shear.....No shear yet..May get a little....could form its own anticyclone..
Not sure if this will happen, but the CMC shows Patrica becoming a huge Great Lakes storm after interacting with an Alberta clipper system, which ex-Patrica then absorbs.



Eventually ex-Patrica is overtaken by a new low that forms southwest of the system's center which then moves over Lake Michigan taking ex-Patrica's place resulting in this Great Lakes storm system going on over the lakes for days



I am not sure if this will verify, but it would be interesting if it did. An ex-hurricane from the pacific becoming a Great Lakes storm would be something else.

"Euro" at 96h. Low in the Gulf.


HRRR model showing lots of rain for Oklahoma
Quoting 501. wpb:

recon pass 995 mb 115kt
Something is wrong...955 mb maybe..995 is a strong T.S. or weak hurricane
Updated 1-3 day WPC rainfall.

Quoting 517. barbamz:


"Euro" at 96h. Low in the Gulf.
Yep. GFS too..I will check CMC for the heck of it.
CMC too...

Quoting 522. hydrus:

CMC too...




Real my post (516) to see more on the CMC's solution from after that frame.
hmm, Tx drought buster?
Quoting 520. SouthCentralTx:

Updated 1-3 day WPC rainfall.


Keeps increasing with every run now..I hope the word is out..To many people get killed with the terrible floods.
Quoting 504. RitaEvac:

Looks like Extreme to Catastrophic damage underway for Mexico and tourist resorts.


Before we get too dramatic, it should be noted that, at present at least, the wind field of Patricia is quite small, with hurricane-force winds extending outward only 30 miles, and major hurricane winds confined to the tiny eyewall. Exact landfall location will make a big difference. On top of/just west of Manzanillo: catastrophic. On top of/just west of Puerto Vallarta: catastrophic. Anywhere in between (which seems most likely right now): dodged bullet, perhaps.
Shouldn't have to worry about fires for a while, except for floating "Fire" ants

Quoting 480. Gearsts:

annular


Yes, It's annular. But how does dry air get into the eye of the storm when it's well organized and no other dry air in sight?
Quoting 505. hydrus:

GFS has whats left of Patricia offshore Texas in 4 days..Talk about dangerous possibilities.




If Patricia survives to the Atlantic "Mind Blown"
Quoting 519. hydrus:

Something is wrong...955 mb maybe..995 is a strong T.S. or weak hurricane


Patrica at 958MB.
Quoting 529. Famoguy1234:



If Patricia survives to the Atlantic "Mind Blown"


Could we be facing another Bill situation here?
any new reports from recon?
Quoting 527. RitaEvac:

Shouldn't have to worry about fires for a while, except for floating "Fire" ants




Floating fire ants?

*bursts out laughing*
Quoting 489. BrazoriaMan:

The funny thing is, all we have to have outside of that 7-10 area is training storms for like an hour or two at decent rates and we are already at the 3-5 they are showing for Houston, not to mention what else comes through. What they need to do is outline the entire rain threat area and write, "your guess is as good as mine lol". This thing has bounced around for days on where and how much. Won't know til it happens.


Just started raining up here, south of Norman. The bulleyes for TX sure did shift inland... and what an increase in WPC's QPF (posted by SouthCentralTX, comment 520 add: and RitaEvac at 527). I give them better than guesswork. When you're looking at Days 1-3, lots of times they're right on - in my experience. But then, I live north of Red River...
;)
Quoting 533. 62901IL:



Floating fire ants?

*bursts out laughing*


Happens all the time when it floods in these parts..
Quoting 531. 62901IL:



Could we be facing another Bill situation here?


If the CMC verifies we are looking at Patrica turning into a "November" Witch/Gale over the Great Lakes.
Quoting 533. 62901IL:



Floating fire ants?

*bursts out laughing*


You laugh, but...
Quoting 535. DavidHOUTX:



Happens all the time when it floods in these parts..


I don't know what to say.
Quoting 489. BrazoriaMan:

The funny thing is, all we have to have outside of that 7-10 area is training storms for like an hour or two at decent rates and we are already at the 3-5 they are showing for Houston, not to mention what else comes through. What they need to do is outline the entire rain threat area and write, "your guess is as good as mine lol". This thing has bounced around for days on where and how much. Won't know til it happens.




Austin/San Antonio NWS has been advertising this very dangerous rain event for days. The bulls Eye may have wondered a bit, but the overall forecast has not.
Quoting 528. 62901IL:



Yes, It's annular. But how does dry air get into the eye of the storm when it's well organized and no other dry air in sight?

adiabatic warming from decent of air in the eye perhaps. Its not that unusual other storm this year have shown the same thing
Quoting 536. FunnelVortex:



If the CMC verifies we are looking at Patrica turning into a "November" Witch over the Great Lakes.


Hmmm...
Quoting 537. NocturnalEcosystems:



You laugh, but...


I will watch it later.


Cat 4 Patricia.
Quoting 540. all4hurricanes:


adiabatic warming from decent of air in the eye perhaps. Its not that unusual other storm this year have shown the same thing


I've only seen it in one other storm...can't remember the name.
Quoting 529. Famoguy1234:



If Patricia survives to the Atlantic "Mind Blown"

Patricia is forecast to dissipate in 72 hours, as per the usual over the high mountains of the Sierra Madre. Not even a Cat 5 can survive that, plus being over dry land.
Far reaching affects..


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 25 2015 - 12Z THU OCT 29 2015


THE MODEL CHOICE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS DRIVEN BY AN ATTEMPT TO
RESOLVE TWO IMPORTANT--AND WILD CARD--FEATURES, BOTH TROPICAL IN
ORIGIN. THE FIRST IS WHAT CONSTITUTES THE ATLANTIC BASIN
REFLECTION OF A RECONSTITUTED HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TENACIOUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE SHOULD AFFORD A SHOT-IN-THE-ARM TO
THE FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DAY 3, WITH A DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INDICATED BY ALL OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER. RELIED ON THE
SLOWER EUROPEAN CENTRE EJECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WHETHER THIS
ENERGY BUNDLE IS ABLE TO GET INCORPORATED INTO A DEVELOPING
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, THEREBY FUELING A
MASSIVE EXPANSION AND DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE, IS STILL VERY MUCH
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, DEPICTED A SEPARATE PROGRESSION OF THESE
FEATURES.
THE SECOND IMPORTANT FEATURE TO RESOLVE IS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE OLAF, WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SCOOT UP THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DAY 6. THE
RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF THAT STRETCH OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD
WIPE OUT MOST OF THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF OLAF BEFORE SUCH
A PASS OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA, BUT AN ENHANCEMENT OF WIND FIELDS IS
STILL IN THE CARDS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY STABLE MID-LEVEL CORE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES, POSSIBLE STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT, AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
GHOST OF PATRICIA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE OCEANIC CYCLONIC COMPLEX.


CISCO
Quoting 536. FunnelVortex:



If the CMC verifies we are looking at Patrica turning into a "November" Witch/Gale over the Great Lakes.
Very possible...Large system
Quoting 529. Famoguy1234:



If Patricia survives to the Atlantic "Mind Blown"
Mid and upper circulation will survive the trek..Low level, destroyed.
Quoting 545. hydrus:

Far reaching affects..


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 25 2015 - 12Z THU OCT 29 2015


THE MODEL CHOICE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS DRIVEN BY AN ATTEMPT TO
RESOLVE TWO IMPORTANT--AND WILD CARD--FEATURES, BOTH TROPICAL IN
ORIGIN. THE FIRST IS WHAT CONSTITUTES THE ATLANTIC BASIN
REFLECTION OF A RECONSTITUTED HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TENACIOUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE SHOULD AFFORD A SHOT-IN-THE-ARM TO
THE FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DAY 3, WITH A DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INDICATED BY ALL OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER. RELIED ON THE
SLOWER EUROPEAN CENTRE EJECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WHETHER THIS
ENERGY BUNDLE IS ABLE TO GET INCORPORATED INTO A DEVELOPING
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, THEREBY FUELING A
MASSIVE EXPANSION AND DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE, IS STILL VERY MUCH
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, DEPICTED A SEPARATE PROGRESSION OF THESE
FEATURES.
THE SECOND IMPORTANT FEATURE TO RESOLVE IS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE OLAF, WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SCOOT UP THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DAY 6. THE
RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF THAT STRETCH OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD
WIPE OUT MOST OF THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF OLAF BEFORE SUCH
A PASS OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA, BUT AN ENHANCEMENT OF WIND FIELDS IS
STILL IN THE CARDS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY STABLE MID-LEVEL CORE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES, POSSIBLE STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT, AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
GHOST OF PATRICIA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE OCEANIC CYCLONIC COMPLEX.


CISCO


First, let's just say that the last name is supposed to be spelled S-i-s-k-o.

Next up, should Patricia's remains make it into the GOM, it could redevelop. I'm not saying it's going to happen, though.

And Last, Olaf's remains will most likely be absorbed by the trough of the coast of California.
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 87% is 6.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 87% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 87% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 87% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Quoting 549. Stormchaser2007:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 87% is 6.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 87% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 87% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 87% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)



Whoa. This is a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation, if you've forgotten)
Quoting 546. hydrus:

Very possible...Large system


I'm sure it wouldn't be the first time an ex-hurricane has turned into a Great Lakes storm
The Pacific is on fire today. Three major hurricanes or their equivalent, one each in the East, Central, and West Pacific. Patricia being the most serious for sure, both in strength and land impact potential. Yesterday's 18z intermediate advisory had the storm at 35kts. The 18z special advisory today is 115kts. 80kts in 24 hours? Has that ever happened? Granted, 35kts at 18z yesterday was likely 10kts or so conservative. But that's still mind blowing intensification.

Quoting 485. calkevin77:

I work in downtown Austin with my office buildings along Shoal Creek. Back on Memorial Day we had areas receive 6-8 inches over a four hour period and the creek went up about 15 feet and inundated the downtown area. We had severe damage to two of our five buildings including an exterior wall collapse and chest-high water intrusion. Our surveillance cameras showed our entire parking lot under six feet of water in less than eight minutes. Thankfully the office was closed on Memorial Day. Needless to say, most of the businesses downtown are keeping eyes to the weather and moving contents to the upper floors. Fingers crossed that the brunt of the energy will make its way after most people have left work tomorrow evening. On another note, the Formula 1 race is this weekend here in Austin so that will be interesting.




I remember. Was following Austin weather pretty closely last spring because a relative works on a TV show that was filming its entire season in TX this year. Bad timing weatherwise, but the show went on and they got 'er done. Formula 1. Hey, that's some fun, but they may cancel. The Galveston regatta or race, whatever was scheduled this weekend, already got cancelled. Nowadays, large venues seem to be paying better attention to weather.

Thanks for the weather info, everyone. I'm gonna enjoy my rain and leave you all to watch Patricia.
She's fascinating. RI always is.


Oh. 548. 62901IL, Pretty sure Forecaster Cisco would know how to spell his/her own name.
Quoting 552. MAweatherboy1:

The Pacific is on fire today. Three major hurricanes or their equivalent, one each in the East, Central, and West Pacific. Patricia being the most serious for sure, both in strength and land impact potential. Yesterday's 18z intermediate advisory had the storm at 35kts. The 18z special advisory today is 115kts. 80kts in 24 hours? Has that ever happened? Granted, 35kts at 18z yesterday was likely 10kts or so conservative. But that's still mind blowing intensification.




I think Humberto 2007 got about 30KTS in 18 hours. Could be wrong, though

EDIT: 45KTS in 18 hours. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.
Quoting 553. Barefootontherocks:

I remember. Was following Austin weather pretty closely last spring because a relative works on a TV show that was filming its entire season in TX this year. Bad timing weatherwise, but the show went on and they got 'er done. Formula 1. Hey, that's some fun, but they may cancel. The Galveston regatta or race, whatever was scheduled this weekend, already got cancelled. Nowadays, large venues seem to be paying better attention to weather.

Thanks for the weather info, everyone. I'm gonna enjoy my rain and leave you all to watch Patricia.
She's fascinating. RI always is.

Oh. 548. 62901IL, Pretty sure Forecaster Cisco would know how to spell his/her own name.


I know. Just pointing out this guy.
Is this a record eye?
Quoting 556. BayFog:

Is this a record eye?



I've seen bigger.
Quoting 535. DavidHOUTX:



Happens all the time when it floods in these parts..
Only some marginally high anthills here. It's when the fire ants start climbing electric poles that you really go to worry. This was determined during the 2005 hurricane season. Right here at wu.

(exits for real)
Quoting 558. DavidHOUTX:



That's what she said....


Eh heh heh... Eh heh heh...
Campo Acosta with a population of 2700 looks to be the only city that could get major hurricane winds...of course that could change with the track..
Quoting 559. Barefootontherocks:

Only some marginally high anthills here. It's when the fire ants start climbing electric poles that you really go to worry. This was determined during the 2005 hurricane season. Right here at wu.

(exits for real)


Yea fire ants are definitely a way to tell something is on the horizon. When we had that 11" or so back in May, they were all trying to get in my house by climbing up the windows and stuff. They were trying to get into my attic through an attic vent. I always look for those things before a storm comes.
Quoting 547. hydrus:

Mid and upper circulation will survive the trek..Low level, destroyed.

That's not much though, comparatively, since hurricanes live from the surface. A large swig of moisture aloft for sure. The real story will be the combining of that with other factors to produce torrential rains.
Quoting 552. MAweatherboy1:

The Pacific is on fire today. Three major hurricanes or their equivalent, one each in the East, Central, and West Pacific. Patricia being the most serious for sure, both in strength and land impact potential. Yesterday's 18z intermediate advisory had the storm at 35kts. The 18z special advisory today is 115kts. 80kts in 24 hours? Has that ever happened? Granted, 35kts at 18z yesterday was likely 10kts or so conservative. But that's still mind blowing intensification.




Felix went from 65 kts to 150 kts. between 8 PM ET 9/1/07 and 8 PM ET 9/2/07. So Patricia's just a tad shy. But Felix holds the all-time record as far as I understand, so that's still pretty mind-blowing.
Fort Worth Fire Dept ‏@FortWorthFire 2m2 minutes ago

We went from a 1 alarm grass fire before lunch to talking about #TurnAroundDontDrown after lunch Have to love #txwx
Super Typhoon Champi now solidly entrenched in the main westerly flow, moving more rapidly east, and intact.

Champi, verging on annularity.
Quoting 566. BayFog:

Super Typhoon Champi now solidly entrenched in the main westerly flow, moving more rapidly east, and intact.





do you ever check the winds on a storm be for making your statements i gust not

115 mph winds is not Super Typhoon Super Typhoon starts at 150 and above its now a typhoon

please do a better job and checking the winds on the storm be for making your statement

952.4 mb the lowest pressure from the current recon pass - a drop of 3.2 mb in about 1 hour 20 minutes since the last pass.
570. NNYer
I bet we'll see an update from Dr. Masters soon.
Quoting 474. DogtownMex:


I agree with your sentiment sar but PV is in the state of Jalisco. There is no such state as Guadalajara.
Whoops. My fingers got carried away typing Guadalajara. :-) I've been to PV and Jalisco state several times, as well as Manzanillo and Tepic. Assuming Patricia follows the forecast path, PV should be on the weak side of the storm. At least so far, the hurricane wind field is so small that even Manzanillo may escape the higher winds. Once the storm leaves that relatively narrow coastal strip, it's curtains for a hurricane as it crashes into the high mountains. How much rain falls out as it dissipates may cause problems for the people in the mountains but, compared to a landfall in places like Acapulco or Cabo, the forecast path is about as good as it gets for a cat4/5 hurricane. A 50 mile shift north or south changes things dramatically but the models seem to be in fair agreement on path at this point. All we can do is hope they have it nailed at this point.
Quoting 570. NNYer:

I bet we'll see an update from Dr. Masters soon.
I'm surprised it didn't happen just as I hit the Post button. Probably will now. :-)
Quoting 527. RitaEvac:

Shouldn't have to worry about fires for a while, except for floating "Fire" ants



Hell of a thing to have to climb a tree during flooding and have to share it with fire ants. Ouch...
Ain't no joke! Ants everywhere during the flood and skeeters afterward.


Quoting 533. 62901IL:



Floating fire ants?

*bursts out laughing*
Quoting 572. sar2401:

I'm surprised it didn't happen just as I hit the Post button. Probably will now. :-)


Bob will be updating in few minutes....

Dr. M.
Quoting 556. BayFog:

Is this a record eye?

The record is Typhoon Carmen at about 200 miles so it looks like Champi still has a ways to go.
Quoting 575. JeffMasters:



Bob will be updating in few minutes....

Dr. M.
I knew it! The Magic 8 Ball said one of you guys are hard at work on a new blog and I should wait to post for about 10 minutes. I just wanted to maintain my record of the last post that no one will ever read. :-)
Quoting 574. BrazoriaMan:

Ain't no joke! Ants everywhere during the flood and skeeters afterward.



Not to mention a couple of gators and a bunch of cottonmouths. I'm glad I never had to do swift water rescue here compared to California. All I had to worry about there was floating redwood trees....oh, and giant propane tanks :-)
We may have a near record for rapid intensification..


Location: 15.0N 104.0WMovement: WNW at 17 mphWind: 135 MPHPressure: 958 MB
Quoting 574. BrazoriaMan:

Ain't no joke! Ants everywhere during the flood and skeeters afterward.



and they biiiiite! Even in flooding water #%!
Huh!


NASA Goddard Images
‏@NASAGoddardPix
Typhoon Champi develops massive eye: https://flic.kr/p/zaDHfs
HWRF gets it down to 939mb..I bet lower before eyewall regeneration..



Looks like a high heel shoe at the bottom of that eye.
Quoting 582. barbamz:

Huh!


NASA Goddard Images
‏@NASAGoddardPix
Typhoon Champi develops massive eye: https://flic.kr/p/zaDHfs


Earth is great.
Quoting 585. JrWeathermanFL:


Earth is great.

Indeed. And great that there are satellites nowadays. In former times only God, his angels, the demons and maybe some aliens would have been able to watch that show :-)
Quoting 568. Tazmanian:




do you ever check the winds on a storm be for making your statements i gust not

115 mph winds is not Super Typhoon Super Typhoon starts at 150 and above its now a typhoon

please do a better job and checking the winds on the storm be for making your statement



First of all, why do you have to insult people.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.