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Patricia Threatens Mexico; Big Surf in Hawaii From Olaf; Koppu Finally Dies

By: Jeff Masters 2:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2015

Tropical Storm Patricia formed on Tuesday evening in Mexico's Pacific waters about about 400 miles east-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, becoming the 16th named storm of this unusually active Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that Patricia was a poorly organized minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, with no well-formed low-level spiral bands and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar images from the Acapulco radar showed that Patricia's main heavy thunderstorm activity was offshore, though a few bands of heavy rain were affecting the coast. Patricia is under light wind shear, has very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) to work with, and an atmosphere rich in moisture (>80% relative humidity) at mid-levels. These conditions should promote rapid intensification once Patricia gets well-organized and develops an inner core. Patricia will move to the west, roughly parallel to the coast, today through Thursday, then turn abruptly to the north on Friday as it gets pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure. The computer models all agree that this will result in Patricia making landfall in Southwest Mexico on Friday, possibly as a hurricane. If Patricia does make landfall as a hurricane, it would become the fifth latest Pacific hurricane to strike Mexico since records began in 1949, according to a database of Eastern Pacific hurricanes maintained by NOAA's Coastal Services Center. The only Pacific hurricanes to strike Mexico later than October 23 were Category 4 Hurricane Kenna of 2002 (which struck on October 25) and Category 3 Hurricane Olivia of 1975 (also an October 25 landfall), Category 1 Hurricane Rick (November 10, 1997) and Category 1 Hurricane Tara (November 11, 1961.)


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Patricia.

Central Pacific's Hurricane Olaf maintains Category 4 strength
Hurricane Olaf intensified into a major Category 4 hurricane on Monday at 5 pm EDT in the waters about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, and maintained Category 4 strength through Wednesday morning at 5 am EDT. Wednesday morning satellite loops showed Olaf was a bit weaker than its 150 mph peak strength on Tuesday, and the storm is likely to continue to weaken as it turns north late this week, passing about 600 miles east of Hawaii on Saturday morning. While the storm will not bring strong winds or heavy rain to the islands, Olaf is generating high surf, and a High Surf Advisory is posted for Hawaii's Big Island for waves of 6 - 10 feet. Latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models keep Olaf moving to the northeast next week, away from Hawaii. Some of the long-range outlooks from the GFS model have shown Olaf (or its extratropical remnant) getting unusually close to Northern California 7 - 9 days from now, but these forecasts have not been consistent.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Hurricane Olaf in the waters east-southeast of Hawaii as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Tuesday, October 20, 2015. At the time, Olaf was at peak strength--a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Koppu finally dies
High wind shear and interaction with land have finally done in Typhoon Koppu (known as Lando in the Philippines), whose remnants are still bringing some heavy rain to northern Luzon Island in the Philippines. According to BBC News, Koppu killed at least 39 people and left behind $141 million in agricultural damage. Weather.com has a detailed summary of Koppu's impacts on the Philippines.


Figure 3. Thousands of homes were damaged in Casiguaran, Philippines during Typhoon Koppu. (@jeffcanoy/instagram) 

I'll have a new post by 1 pm EDT today, after NOAA releases its global September weather summary.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Not much talk about rains in the central US
Thanks Dr. Jeff Masters. Interesting read as always. Can't wait to see the September weather summary from NOAA.
Quoting 1. RitaEvac:

Not much talk about rains in the central US

1. RitaEvac

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9999


Just one more.

EDIT: Oh nevermind. Boy do I look stupid now. lol
2016 hyper atlantic hurricane season. the blog is going to go ballistic
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks, Doc.
The deathtoll of Koppu is further rising, according to the latest news from Reuters:

Typhoon Koppu weakens rapidly after killing 58 in Philippines
Source: Reuters - Wed, 21 Oct 2015 11:19 GMT

Some more random news of weather disasters in the last days:

Somalia: Heavy Rains Hit Hundreds of Displaced Families in Mogadishu
Oct 20: Torrential rains began to pour down in Somali capital, Mogadishu which caused floods that swept away hundreds of huts in makeshift camps, housing by locally displaced people.
The rain waters have submerged the IDPs centers at Sigale area near Somalia's immigration compound in Mogadishu's Hodon district, where hundreds of poor families fled from the conflict are locating.


Rain Radar East Africa.


South-East Africa: KZN crippled by drought
October 20 2015 at 07:15pm
Durban - The drought in KwaZulu-Natal is tightening its grip with perennial streams and rivers running dry and the authorities warning that towns and cities could soon feel the impact of a disaster that already has farmers on their knees.

Guatemala families struggle for food in Central American drought
By Katy Watson BBC Mexico and Central America reporter, BBC, 19 October 2015
For hundreds of thousands of farmers in Guatemala, this year's harvest is over before it has even begun. The fields in the east of the country are yellow, the ground bone-dry. ...

Aproppos Guatemala:
Search in Guatemala landslide ends with 280 dead, 70 missing

Worst flood in Belize City's recent memory!
BELIZE CITY, Mon. Oct. 19, 2015 - As we go to press, the roar of the thunder confirms the latest advisory issued tonight by the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) that a new tropical disturbance right on our doorsteps will bring more rain and thunderstorms, even as northern Belize, and particular the Old Capital, Belize City, is reeling from what many perceive to be the most devastating flood in recent memory.
The catastrophic flood caused by a tropical depression associated with a broad area of disturbance spanning Mexico and parts of Central America, has been described as the largest weather event to affect Belize City since Hurricane Hattie, which hit Belize in this same month in 1961. ...


Edit: Migrants stranded in Balkans suffer bad weather, bottlenecks
Source: Reuters - Wed, 21 Oct 2015 10:12 GMT
Quoting 7. barbamz:

Somalia: Heavy Rains Hit Hundreds of Displaced Families in Mogadishu
Oct 20: Torrential rains began to pour down in Somali capital, Mogadishu which caused floods that swept away hundreds of huts in makeshift camps, housing by locally displaced people.
The rain waters have submerged the IDPs centers at Sigale area near Somalia's immigration compound in Mogadishu's Hodon district, where hundreds of poor families fled from the conflict are locating.



Wasn't it only a short while ago that Somalia was dealing with one of its worst droughts in existence?
Oldest member!!! Just teasing :p

I love this weather lately. It has been absolutely beautiful here in the panhandle of FL and everything is pretty much still green. Can't wait to see the fall colors.
With a real lull in Atlantic , Carbbean and GOM basins, can anyone provided the latest date in these areas for a cat 4 or 5 system?
Quoting 9. LongIslandBeaches:



Wasn't it only a short while ago that Somalia was dealing with one of its worst droughts in existence?

Sure some dangerous rollercoaster weather for many in Africa, worsened by El Nino:
Africa: El Niño Threatens 60m Starving People in Africa
Quote: "The forecast shows places around the equatorial region for example Kenya, southern parts of Somalia, Uganda and northern Tanzania will receive enhanced rainfall," said George Kabaka, a meteorologist at ICPAC.
Quoting 11. NSB207:

With a real lull in Atlantic , Carbbean and GOM basins, can anyone provided the latest date in these areas for a cat 4 or 5 system?
Joaquin 2 weeks ago... lol
Quoting 8. Tazmanian:



way to go i this made my 117,000 commit not long a go has well


"REPORTED" entries do not count! :):)
Quoting 14. Grothar:



"REPORTED" entries do not count! :):)



LOL smarty pants
Quoting 13. Camerooski:

Joaquin 2 weeks ago... lol


I'm pretty sure the remnants of Erika are still wandering around out there somewhere, waiting for just the right moment to come back.
Quoting 17. Icantthinkofausernam:



I'm pretty sure the remnants of Erika are still wandering around out there somewhere, waiting for just the right moment to come back.


Don't forget about the remnants of the remnants of ex-Grace. Those clouds are poised to make a comeback also.
Thank you for the efficient and concise update this morning Dr. Jeff.
It is a BEAUTIFUL Fall day here on the NW FL Gulf Coast so I'm going outside now.. Enjoy your day everyone!

Please do tell us how this blog was back in '69 csmda. Was Grothar pointing out blobs, and was STS predicting a super El Niño back then?

Quoting 10. csmda:

Oldest member!!! Just teasing :p

I love this weather lately. It has been absolutely beautiful here in the panhandle of FL and everything is pretty much still green. Can't wait to see the fall colors.
Thanks Dr; with Patricia moving inland, and the look of the current model runs (below), we could actually see some significant rain and flooding in-stream all the way into Texas depending on how much moisture is pulled in from the E-Pac. Pretty huge area with lots of moisture in tow.......................


Koppu is not dead, just shape-shifted.
;)

Yes, RitaEvac.
The middle is scheduled for some welcome rain this week. Flash Flood Watches have appeared.
Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather

NOAA

Link





here are the weather ch winter storm names for 2015-16

winter storm MARS sound like a cool name

Really ugly shots from MODIS =

Smoke and fires in southern Sumatra and Borneo

Terra/MODIS
2015/294
10/21/2015
03:00 UTC

Link

Aqua/MODIS
2015/294
10/21/2015
05:50 UTC

Link
Getting ready to sail the Harvest Moon Regatta from Galveston to Port Aransas tomorrow. Weather a bit unsettled, but looks like SE winds 15-20kts and 6-8ft seas. Scattered showers with gusts to 30knts possible...Not a great forecast, but very manageable for our boat.
Quoting 20. capeflorida:

Please do tell us how this blog was back in '69 csmda. Was Grothar pointing out blobs, and was STS predicting a super El Niño back then?


In '69 posts had to be sent into this blog by regular mail, requiring a 6-cent (US) postage stamp. There were some complaints that the blog ran rather slow.
Doc !!!!!!!


Quoting 7. barbamz:

Thanks, Doc.

Worst flood in Belize City's recent memory!
BELIZE CITY, Mon. Oct. 19, 2015 - As we go to press, the roar of the thunder confirms the latest advisory issued tonight by the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) that a new tropical disturbance right on our doorsteps will bring more rain and thunderstorms, even as northern Belize, and particular the Old Capital, Belize City, is reeling from what many perceive to be the most devastating flood in recent memory.
The catastrophic flood caused by a tropical depression associated with a broad area of disturbance spanning Mexico and parts of Central America, has been described as the largest weather event to affect Belize City since Hurricane Hattie, which hit Belize in this same month in 1961. ...

Hi Barb. The Belize story is a good example of why the press can be problematic if you're not familiar with the source. Amandala is a kind of a tabloid paper in Belize City with very poor reporting and fact checking. I've spent a fair bit of time in Belize and flooding, especially in Belize City, is not uncommon. I don't know what the paper means by "recent memory" but it must be a short memory indeed. To compare this in any way with Hurricane Hattie is absolutely ludicrous. Between 150 mph winds, storm surge, and about 30 inches of rain, most of Belize City was destroyed by Hattie. Over 300 people died, and the government of the then British Honduras finally gave up on Belize City after decades of repeated floods and moved the capital inland to Belmopan. Any flooding is bad if it's your house or business, but this was not catastrophic given the history of floods in Belize City. That story was from Monday. Now that the flooding has subsided, Amandala is back to reporting their usual carjackings, murders, and other assorted mayhem that's just part of daily life in Belize City.
Quoting 27. FLWaterFront:

In '69 posts had to be sent into this blog by regular mail, requiring a 6-cent (US) postage stamp. There were some complaints that the blog ran rather slow.


The flagship weather model of the time was the U.S 7 Layer Primitive Equation model, which ran over a northern hemisphere domain on a CDC 6600 supercomputer capable of over a million floating point operations per second. ECMWF did not exist. The Barotropic model was often competitive out to long range (72 hours) out. Weather information got out to forecast offices and universities over 300 baud fax lines which fed brown and white fax printers. It took about an hour to print out ten feet of fax image.
(That was not much changed in 1978 when I transferred into Penn State though the weather models of that time {LFM, better PE} were already a lot better] There were no calculators. Slide rules ruled! My mother, always poor at math, used a mechanical abacus to calculate budgets and household expense reports.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 26. Greg01:

Getting ready to sail the Harvest Moon Regatta from Galveston to Port Aransas tomorrow. Weather a bit unsettled, but looks like SE winds 15-20kts and 6-8ft seas. Scattered showers with gusts to 30knts possible...Not a great forecast, but very manageable for our boat.
Sounds like you'll have to pay a bit more attention to the sails and handholds than usual, but your boat speed should be fantastic. :-) I wish I was going out with you. Have a ball!

EDIT: A new entry already? At least I'm keeping up with my last post before a new blog record.
Quoting 26. Greg01:

Getting ready to sail the Harvest Moon Regatta from Galveston to Port Aransas tomorrow. Weather a bit unsettled, but looks like SE winds 15-20kts and 6-8ft seas. Scattered showers with gusts to 30knts possible...Not a great forecast, but very manageable for our boat.


Fair winds and following seas for true? Might keep a few folks in port. Best wishes!
Missing the warm, humid air in the FL Panhandle- that's my favorite: feels like I can actually breathe. I don't understand how low 70's and bone dry air is what people describe as "perfect weather-" makes my eyes water in the wind and my airways dry out making me cough. Not attempting to burst your bubble, just find it interesting what people's definition of "perfect weather" is. Maybe that's why a lot of people like California and such.
Quoting 10. csmda:

Oldest member!!! Just teasing :p

I love this weather lately. It has been absolutely beautiful here in the panhandle of FL and everything is pretty much still green. Can't wait to see the fall colors.



Autumn is by far my favorite season in the Mid Atlantic and I appreciate it more every year. Summer by contrast is my least favorite even though I garden extensively.

I concur that fall and spring were very pleasant seasons in Tallahassee.