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Worst Flooding Still to Come in Philippines from Koppu; Champi Now a Super Typhoon

By: Bob Henson 7:07 PM GMT on October 18, 2015

Although it has weakened to Category 1 strength since making landfall, Typhoon Koppu continues to hold high potential for catastrophic multi-day rainfall in the large Philippines island of Luzon. Koppu edged into the east-coast province of Aurora around 1:00 am Sunday local time as a super typhoon, packing top winds estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) at 150 mph. Fortunately, this part of Luzon is fairly sparsely populated, though two fatalities had been reported by Sunday evening local time. Tree and structural damage and power outages are widespread. At least 9 million residents of Luzon--close to 10 percent of the population of the Philippines--were without power as of Sunday afternoon local time (midnight Saturday night EDT), according to data from the Philippines National Disaster Risk and Reduction Management Council. (Thanks to Nick Wiltgen at the Weather Channel for this statistic.) At 11:00 pm local time Sunday (11:00 am EDT), Koppu was located about 140 miles north-northwest of Manila along the west coast of Luzon. Koppu is known as Lando in the Philippines, which maintains its own naming system for tropical cyclones.

Storm chaser James Reynolds (@EarthUncutTV on Twitter) encountered very high water levels on the Pampanga River north of Cabanatuan, a city of about 270,000 in central Luzon. The embedded YouTube clip at the bottom of this point includes video collected by Reynolds near Cabanatuan and during landfall from the small city of Maddela, just inland from Luzan’s east coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Typhoon Koppu over Luzon Island in the Philippines as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Sunday, October 18, 2015. At the time, Koppu was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. A man looks at the rising water level of the Magat River caused by continuous rains of Typhoon Koppu at Bayombong, Nueva Viscaya, Philippines, on Sunday, October 18, 2015. Koppu wrecked houses, tore down trees, and unleashed landslides and floods, forcing thousands to flee as it pummeled the northern Philippines on Sunday. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Torrential rains to grip Luzon for several days
The projected track of Koppu is close to a worst-case scenario for catastrophic rainfall across northern Luzon, home to more than 10 million people. Steering currents are collapsing, and the typhoon will be caught in the midst of a broad upper-level ridge, with little to move it out to sea anytime soon. Models agree that the circulation will inch northward over the next 3 to 4 days, either hugging the northwest coast of Luzon or moving along the spine of the island. Although Koppu will continue to deteriorate as its center remains over or near land, its broad, strong circulation will keep pulling deep moisture into the island, where upslope flow against higher terrain will squeeze out mammoth amounts of rain. Even a tropical depression can produce enormous rains if it’s moving slowly, especially when positioned near high terrain, and Koppu should maintain at least tropical storm strength if the center remains just offshore. The 06Z and 12Z Sunday runs of the GFS model keeps the center of Koppu near Luzon until early Friday local time, while the ECMWF pulls Koppu away from the island by Thursday and the UKMET by Wednesday. At a minimum, we can expect widespread storm totals of one to two feet of rain across much of northern Luzon. High-resolution output from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a few localized multi-day totals in or beyond the 40” - 50” range are conceivable. Widespread flooding and mudslides are virtually certain, and major agricultural damage can be expected as well. It appears the heaviest rains will stay north of Manila, but Koppu could still end up as one of the most costly natural disasters in Philippine history if the predicted rains materialize.


Figure 3. Weak steering flow will be surrounding Typhoon Koppu for several days, exacerbating the risk of heavy rain over the northern Philippines. Shown in this WunderMap image is the flow at 200 mb (about 40,000 feet), labeled in knots, predicted by the 12Z Sunday run of the GFS model for 18Z Tuesday (2 a.m. local time Wednesday).


Figure 4. Five-day precipitation totals (in inches) predicted by the 12Z Sunday run of the GFS model. Localized totals could be much higher than depicted in this coarse-resolution graphic. Image credit: NWS/NCEP.


Some of the heaviest rain may fall in and near the city of Baguio, a regional center with about 300,000 residents that’s popular among visitors for its relatively cool climate. Located at an elevation of roughly 5000 feet, but less than 20 miles from Luzon’s west coast, Baguio is highly vulnerable to moist westerly winds being forced upslope. A typhoon in July 1911 dumped more than 2,200 millimeters (87 inches) of rain on the city in less than four days. In September 2015, Typhoon Goni brought more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain to Baguio, even without making a direct hit on the Philippines, as noted by weather.com.

For reference, below are the global records for heaviest rainfall observed in various time periods, as certified by the World Meteorological Organization and archived by Arizona State University.

24 hours: 1.825m (71.8"), January 7-8, 1966, Foc-Foc, La Réunion
48 hours: 2.493m (98.15"), June 15-16, 1995, Cherrapunji, India
72 hours: 3.930m (154.72"), February 24-26, 2007, Cratère Commerson, La Réunion
96 hours: 4.936m (194.33"), February 24-27, 2007, Cratère Commerson, La Réunion


Figure 5. Infrared satellite image of Super Typhoon Champi, collected at 1630Z (12:30 pm EDT) Sunday, October 18, 2015. Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin.

Another day, another super typhoon: Champi
The Pacific’s relentless tropical season of 2015 continues to amaze. On Saturday, Koppu became the 19th hurricane or typhoon north of the equator to reach Category 4 strength, a new seasonal record for the Northern Hemisphere. On Sunday, Super Typhoon Champi pushed that record to 20, as it bolted from top sustained winds of 115 mph at 0000 GMT Sunday to 150 mph at 1200 GMT Sunday. (Only one of those Category 4 and 5 storms--Hurricane Joaquin--came from the Atlantic.) Champi is the season’s ninth super typhoon--impressive, but still short of the Northwest Pacific record of 11 super typhoons set in 1965 and matched in 1997.

The only land areas likely to be affected by Champi are Japan’s sparsely populated Volcano Islands, including Iwo Jima (Iwo To). Late Sunday night, Champi was moving slowly northward in the open Northwest Pacific, more than 300 miles south-southwest of Iwo Jima. Champi is forecast by the JTWC to reach Category 5 status by Monday; it should recurve near Iwo Jima as a weakening but still powerful typhoon on Wednesday.

92L running aground in Mexico
Invest 92L should be dissipating soon as it moves onto the southern shores of the Bay of Campeche. Moisture flowing the vicinity of 92L will help fuel heavy rains across Texas later this week, and the decaying system may also feed the development of Invest 97E, just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 97E will track northwest parallel to Mexico’s Pacific coast for the next several days, far enough offshore to allow for strengthening. The National Hurricane Center gives 97E a 40 percent chance of development by Tuesday and an 80 percent chance by Friday. Further west, newly designated Hurricane Olaf will churn harmlessly well out to sea, possibly reaching Category 3 strength by Tuesday before it begins to weaken later in the week.

Bob Henson


Video 1. Video compilation from James Reynolds of wind damage and flooding associated with Typhoon Koppu, posted on Sunday, October 18, 2015. Image credit: Earth Uncut TV.



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks
Thanks Mr. Henson..Horrible disaster unfolding in the Philippines...They get it all, volcanoes, earthquakes, typhoons.
Quoting 2. hydrus:

Thanks Mr. Henson..Horrible disaster unfolding in the Philippines...They get it all, volcanoes, earthquakes, typhoons.


You're not kidding, hydrus! I left this out of the blog post, but just a few months before that 1911 typhoon, there was a major volcanic eruption just south of Manila that killed more than 1000 people.

Bob
Anyone see the nice blowup in convection with 92L
Quoting 4. BobHenson:



You're not kidding, hydrus! I left this out of the blog post, but just a few months before that 1911 typhoon, there was a major volcanic eruption just south of Manila that killed more than 1000 people.

Bob
They had a 7.7 Mag earthquake in July of 1990, then less than a year later, Mt Pinatubo erupted as Typhoon Yunya made landfall during the eruption...An absolute nightmare of death and destruction. Here is a link that shows the volcano erupting through the top of the typhoon...Link

Big rain event for PR.
Answer to barbamz (302.) from the previous blog about the cyclone near the Iberian Peninsula:

It probably will be able to regenerate tomorrow, and so maybe can get at least an Invest desgination. The ECMWF keeps the central pressure under 996 hPa almost the whole day, and show a compact, well-defined precipitation system assiciated with the cyclone:



Thanks for the Sunday update, Bob. I still hope it won't be that bad for Luzon but if the tracks won't change ... (currently the worst affected area still appears to be the province of Nueva Ecija from where most of the emergency calls come in).

And all in all: end is nigh anyway. Heavenly city appears in the clouds ;-)



Cloud 'floating city' sparks conspiracy debate
9news.com.au, 9:59am October 18, 2015
A cloud formation in China has baffled thousands and ignited conspiracy theories after appearing to resemble a 'floating alien city'.
The heavenly formation appeared in two separate incidents, first early last week in the city of Foshan, and a few days later in the province of Jiangxi.
The collection of clouds were said to look like a landscape of towering skyscrapers, with conspiracy theorists speculating it could be from an opening into a parallel universe, or be evidence of a secret NASA project called 'Project Blue Beam'. [...]
Less excitingly, weather experts said the cloud formation was the result of a natural phenomenon called Fata Morgana, a type of mirage which distorts objects as a result of atmospheric and temperature changes.
Thanks for the Update Bob....
Quoting 4. BobHenson:



You're not kidding, hydrus! I left this out of the blog post, but just a few months before that 1911 typhoon, there was a major volcanic eruption just south of Manila that killed more than 1000 people.

Bob

That was particularly interesting about the 1911 eruption in that apparently heat wasn't as much a part of destruction as the force of the downblast. If I can coin a word, it really was:
In Manila in the early hours of January 30, 1911, people were awakened out of their sleep by what they at first took for loud thunder. The illusion was heightened when great streaks of lightning were seen to illumine the southern sky. Those who investigated further, however, soon learned the truth. A huge, fan-shaped cloud of what looked like black smoke rose to a great height. It was crossed and crisscrossed with a brilliant electrical display, which the people of Manila at first took for lightning. This cloud finally shot up in the air, spread, then dissipated, and this marked the culmination of the eruption, at about 2:30 a. m.[20]

On Volcano island, the destruction was complete. It seems that when the black, fan-shaped cloud spread, it created a blast downward that forced hot steam and gases down the slopes of the crater, accompanied by a shower of hot mud and sand. Many trees had the bark shredded and cut away from the surface by the hot sand and mud blast that accompanied the explosion and contributed so much to the loss of life and destruction of property. The fact that practically all the vegetation was bent downward, away from the crater, proved that there must have been a very strong blast down the outside slopes of the cone. Very little vegetation was actually burned or even scorched.
Hey Mr Henson you said that champi is wandering in the atslntic when its supposed to be the pacific
Quoting 9. Zivipotty:

Answer to barbamz (302.) from the previous blog about the cyclone near the Iberian Peninsula:

It probably will be able to regenerate tomorrow, and so maybe can get at least an Invest desgination. The ECMWF keeps the central pressure under 996 hPa almost the whole day, and show a compact, well-defined precipitation system assiciated with the cyclone:


Thanks, Zivi! Yes, very interesting system. It even developed an eye yesterday morning, and the responsible vortex survived the northern loop in the last 36 hours very well:


Current IR (9 p.m. local time). Source to get a loop.
Just saw the first snowflakes of the 2015-2016 winter. Large, heavy, wet snow flakes are falling in Harrisburg, PA.

Live blog of Philippine's abs-cbnnews about Koppu/Lando just caught Bob's tweet:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/weather

Bob Henson @bhensonweather
Worst is yet to come from 20-30"+ of rain expected in Philippines as Typhoon #Koppu lingers http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=3158 …
Quoting 8. Gearsts:

Big rain event for PR.



I have been watching the models and they keep trending wetter. Hopefully this does materialize, as we need the RAIN!! I have my fingers crossed. :)

Here is a piece from the NWS SAN JUAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION:

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION... AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EVEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS AND WILL KEEP HIGH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES AND FLOODING
ACROSS MAINLAND PR. STAY TUNED.


Typhoon Koppu ploughs into Philippines killing two people and leaving 23,000 more without homes

Link





It looks like on Thursday something will try to develop near the Texas coastline
Quoting 13. Geoboy645:

Hey Mr Henson you said that champi is wandering in the atslntic when its supposed to be the pacific


Whoops! Now fixed. Thanks for the catch, Geoboy645.

Bob
Quiet Today....
Texans just won yeah and invest 92L is actually looking pretty good anybody notice this
Koppu/Lando: Still hugging the west coast of Luzon, and models shifted back to the east (at least for the next days), grrr.








Current water vapor loops (updating).

Good night with this, and best thoughts to the Philippines!

Quoting 22. James1981cane:

Texans just won yeah and invest 92L is actually looking pretty good anybody notice this

92L is looking terrible.
Quoting 26. Gearsts:


What is that hugging the Yucatan coast?
Quoting 21. PedleyCA:

Quiet Today....

Just because nothing is happening in your zone.
Ped you could always take a holiday to the Philippines?
Quoting 27. Camerooski:

What is that hugging the Yucatan coast?
Areas of vort spinning around the huge gyre.
Typhoon Koppu seems to have moved further west than forecast.
Quoting 9. Zivipotty:

Answer to barbamz (302.) from the previous blog about the cyclone near the Iberian Peninsula:

It probably will be able to regenerate tomorrow, and so maybe can get at least an Invest desgination. The ECMWF keeps the central pressure under 996 hPa almost the whole day, and show a compact, well-defined precipitation system assiciated with the cyclone:





Considering where this storm is at the entrance to the Mediterranean Sea perhaps it should be promoted upwards from a basic "low?"
After all its already put down 6 inches of rain today in Caceres Spain along with other places, the odd bit of flooding including the Metro in Madrid and last but not least, there's a howling wind but no rain outside my house right now.

Here's a full colour picture:-

Quoting 15. Astrometeor:

Just saw the first snowflakes of the 2015-2016 winter. Large, heavy, wet snow flakes are falling in Harrisburg, PA.



saw a few flurries yesterday afternoon first of season
and some more early this am but nothing since
cold temps swinging between 39.6 40.1 right now
another cold night on tap then rebound temp wise starts after tomorrow
forecast low tonight 27 tomorrow temps rise to near 60 in gusty sw winds too 50 kmh then rain after sunset
Quoting 7. hydrus:

They had a 7.7 Mag earthquake in July of 1990, then less than a year later, Mt Pinatubo erupted as Typhoon Yunya made landfall during the eruption...An absolute nightmare of death and destruction. Here is a link that shows the volcano erupting through the top of the typhoon...Link


Was that 7.7 on the "ricderr" scale? (See what I did there...)
That is some serious juicy juicy TPW over Luzon Island for an extended period of time.



Quoting 35. Llamaluvr:

Was that 7.7 on the "ricderr" scale? (See what I did there...)
Yep..Havnt heard from him lately..He is busy these days.
Been having intermittent snow squalls here in Vermont since last night. Was 21F here this morning, supposed to get colder tonight. I guess summer is finally over.

I am surprised how little news I am finding from the Philippines. Hoping things are not nearly as bad as the forecast!
Totals will only go way higher but don't seem too high yet.



And forecast amounts:

Quoting 32. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


saw a few flurries yesterday afternoon first of season
and some more early this am but nothing since
cold temps swinging between 39.6 40.1 right now
another cold night on tap then rebound temp wise starts after tomorrow


Here in DC metro we got rain sprinkles. I thought I saw snow aloft down to perhaps 2000 feet but I am not sure it was snow.. seemed to dense to be a rain shower with air this dry.

Frost this morning from my home in College Park all the way South to my son's horse show (IEA) in Central St Marys county in Southeat MD 60 miles south southeast of me. Some garden damage but that's moot, tonight will be the killer. August 1 planted corn looked good but is going to freeze out early and my corn eating season is done early . This will also cut my fall potato yields in half. This frost occurred with pressure gradient and geostrophic wind but we decoupled and there was no wind at the surface at the stable at dawn. Within an hour it picked up to 10 knots as the sun destroyed the radiation inversion and momentum started mixing down. With good net radiative cooling and clear skies you CAN go calm with significant pressure gradient.
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

forecast low tonight 27 tomorrow temps rise to near 60 in gusty sw winds too 50 kmh then rain after sunset


Expecting upper 20s in my DC suburban garden tonight 10/18-19
92L...



Quoting 41. georgevandenberghe:



Expecting upper 20s in my DC suburban garden tonight 10/18-19
temps already falling here 37.8 be a quick freeze before midnight 6 hrs of sub freezing temps will strip these trees tomorrow in 50 kmh sw winds by early afternoon

everything be bare here likely next weekend or getting close too it anyway
normally around Halloween it leafs out but looks to be a week early than normal
this year
Quoting 20. BobHenson:



Whoops! Now fixed. Thanks for the catch, Geoboy645.

Bob


I don't really post a whole lot about the tropics (as always someone else has already said what I'd say anyway) but want to say, I've really enjoyed your posts. I, along with many others I'm sure, were a bit wary when you joined the Doc (sounds like I'm talking about Dr Who LOL) on the blog posts. But, they have been fantastic. And I especially like how you'll forward your personal opinion into it, more than the Doc would usually. And they've all been completely indepth and thoughtful. So, like, yeah...you're well cool with me for sure!

And thanks for the update
our first flurries of the season yesterday is about 3 weeks early

normal year don't see flurries till the end of the first week of November

Quoting 45. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

our first flurries of the season yesterday is about 3 weeks early

normal year don't see flurries till the end of the first week of November


Yep..this pattern has held quite well despite large changes in the hemispheric patterns...Winter will yet again throw down some big storm..Just me harmless opinion..
Evening all.... so far so good with Koppu ... it would be practically miraculous if only two deaths occur .... given the amount of flooding already visible in Reynold's video, with several more days of torrential rains to go.

Locally we've had a couple days of almost constant rain over the NW Bahamas. I passed several open areas with 4 - 6 inches of standing water when I went out this afternoon, but the main highway across the centre of New Providence Island was mostly puddle-free. It seemed the drain cleaning that took place earlier this summer paid off. It also has helped that the rain hasn't been consistently torrential, though we did have some pretty heavy downpours, especially overnight in my area. The rain has stopped for now, though looking at this ...


... I guess we can continue to expect overcast skies and additional rain for another 24 - 48 hours. Additionally, it seems like we will have a decent cool off, with lows dipping to nearly 75. I for one am ready for a break for the hot sultry days.... and nights....

Looking at the broader picture, it seems like everywhere from here SW to Guatemala's Pacific coast can expect at least 2 more days of rain .... all I can add is that at least it's not coming with hurricane force winds and storm surge ....
Quoting 28. PlazaRed:


Just because nothing is happening in your zone.
Ped you could always take a holiday to the Philippines?
I thought he meant on the blog .... not in the world ....
Early snows in the NE, cold front blasting through FL. Not the El Nio signs yet.
Quoting 49. Bucsboltsfan:

Early snows in the NE, cold front blasting through FL. Not the El Ni�o signs yet.



yes it is the NE in EL nino year can have big snow storms
Not surprising, supposed to bottom out mid to upper 30's F here in central SC. Colder spots may flirt with freezing. Bell peppers may get whacked. Hopefully not. If I can get through tonight, I'm good for a couple more weeks. Potted tropicals came in today. Earliest I remember. Normally I get closer to Halloween.

Quoting 41. georgevandenberghe:



Expecting upper 20s in my DC suburban garden tonight 10/18-19
Didn´t typhoon Parma flooded the Philippines too in 2009 or 2010 after wandering for several days over the region?
Quoting 45. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

our first flurries of the season yesterday is about 3 weeks early

normal year don't see flurries till the end of the first week of November




Keeper,

You just reminded me of a weekend years back, towards the end of October, my sisters and I were having a "girls weekend" in Toronto. We woke up to a foot and a half of snow in Ottawa, took two hours (normally a 30-minute ride) to the train station, wearing our parkas, boots and mittens. Got on the train, stopped in Brockville with just an inch or so of snow, a trace in Kingston, and by the time we reached TO, not a flake anywhere. We really did get some strange looks carrying all our winter gear.

It always amazed me how different the weather could be between TO and Ottawa; not so much between Ottawa and Montreal.

-L
Quoting 44. mitthbevnuruodo:



I don't really post a whole lot about the tropics (as always someone else has already said what I'd say anyway) but want to say, I've really enjoyed your posts. I, along with many others I'm sure, were a bit wary when you joined the Doc (sounds like I'm talking about Dr Who LOL) on the blog posts. But, they have been fantastic. And I especially like how you'll forward your personal opinion into it, more than the Doc would usually. And they've all been completely indepth and thoughtful. So, like, yeah...you're well cool with me for sure!

And thanks for the update


Thanks so much, mitthbevnuruodo! It's really an honor to be here blogging with Jeff and interacting with the amazing WU community. For years before joining the blog, I learned a great deal from Jeff's posts and everyone's dialogue here. My primary goal as Jeff's co-blogger was basically not to fall on my face; hopefully I've accomplished that! :-)

Cheers,
Bob
major blow job coming to the Florida Keys this week - I hope it cools down a little bit too

From the NWS Key West Discussion

.MARINE...BIG WINDS COMING IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS AND
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...BUT WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
BLEED IN LATER THIS AFTERNON AND EVENING...WITH 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AFTER DARK. STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WINDS
APPROACHING 30 KNOTS FO SEVERAL HOURS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL AND THE GULF WATERS...WITH SOME INFREQUENT
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FRESH
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
ON ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW WE ARE
OPTIMISTICALLY ADVERTISING 15 TO 20 KNOTS...BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE
20 KNOTS IN PART OF THE MARINE DISRTICT.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
503 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM PDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SOLANO AND SOUTHWESTERN YOLO COUNTIES...

AT 450 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT UP TO 1.50 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE WRAGG FIRE BURN SCAR.

THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW MOVING THROUGH
THE DRAINAGES OF NORTHWESTERN SOLANO COUNTY NEAR THE BURN SCAR. THE
DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE
MATERIALS.

Isolated heavy t-storms popping up along the coast ranges on the west side of the Sacramento Valley on the backside of our departing low. The same low is pulling up moisture on the east side of the Sierras.
GFS trending west with most of the rain for us.
yes - the NWS misspelled more than once
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
311 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM PDT FOR
CENTRAL INYO...SOUTHEASTERN ESMERALDA AND WEST CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN NEAR SCOTTYS CASTLE AND SCOTTYS JUNCTION. THESE STORMS
ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. NEVADA DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS CLOSED THE
SOUTHBOUND LANES OF US95 IN BEATTY DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. EXPECT
FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WARNED
AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEATTY...STOVEPIPE WELLS...SCOTTYS JUNCTION...GOLD POINT...SCOTTYS
CASTLE AND MESQUITE SPRINGS CAMPGROUND.

Death Valley has been getting quite a soaking so far this year.
The eye of the Olaf is visible now:




92L must die!
Do they retire storm names in the Western Pacific? I never hear of any getting retired.
Quoting 60. pablosyn:

The eye of the Olaf is visible now:


Getting shear from the north.
Quoting 59. BayFog:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
311 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM PDT FOR
CENTRAL INYO...SOUTHEASTERN ESMERALDA AND WEST CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN NEAR SCOTTYS CASTLE AND SCOTTYS JUNCTION. THESE STORMS
ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. NEVADA DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS CLOSED THE
SOUTHBOUND LANES OF US95 IN BEATTY DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. EXPECT
FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WARNED
AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEATTY...STOVEPIPE WELLS...SCOTTYS JUNCTION...GOLD POINT...SCOTTYS
CASTLE AND MESQUITE SPRINGS CAMPGROUND.

Death Valley has been getting quite a soaking so far this year.


Those rocks near Badwater will have a nice skate coming up ... ;>)
Hurricane Olaf has continued to track westward, defying earlier progs. The Hawaiian Magic Force Field will be warming up soon if this continues.
Belizean meet have some pictures from the Flood in Belize City on Face Book
Quoting 41. georgevandenberghe:



Expecting upper 20s in my DC suburban garden tonight 10/18-19
Had 5-10 mph winds all last night so the low only bottomed out at 43. The wind has gone calm now as the high starts to transit ESE and I get closer to the center. The pressure is up to 1025 mb. It was a very pleasant day, with a high of 76, but the official forecast is for a low of 40. If the winds remain calm, I expect to see a low in the upper 30's. There are frost advisories not far north of here but I don't expect that here in town.

I see 92L is doing a mindmeld with 97E. Given the huge gyre over Central America, I'm not surprised, since it seems like it's almost impossible for a weak low to escape. Seems like there should be enough moisture left to at least give south Texas some rain in a couple of days as the plume drifts north. The models are now keeping the moisture even further west, and high pressure appears to be well in control for most of Southeast. There are not even any outlier solutions that would bring any kind of tropical system into the Gulf over the next seven days, and all the fronts are going to stall and washout well north of central Alabama. The dry October here looks set to continue.
Champi forecast to be pulled into the westerlies and a frontal zone where it will go extra-tropical and head eastbound.
Quoting 65. BayFog:

Hurricane Olaf has continued to track westward, defying earlier progs. The Hawaiian Magic Force Field will be warming up soon if this continues.

The Magic 8 Ball Company International is on alert! Those scamps are still threatening it will never rain here again unless I give them my paypal password. So far, they must be onto something, since it hasn't rained since October 2. :-)
https://www.facebook.com/Belizeanmeets?fref=ts  ;      Thats the link to some pictures on the flood in Belize City
Quoting 64. docrod:



Those rocks near Badwater will have a nice skate coming up ... ;>)
Looks like the storms are missing the Valley. Scotty's Castle is close to the CA/NV border west of Beatty, and it looks like the storms are moving NE from the border into Beaty. There's about zero vegetation on the hills outside Beatty, so it doesn't take a lot of rain to get the mud and rocks moving. Some good storms moving into St. George UT though.

Quoting 61. pureet1948:




92L must die!
Already dead in terms of becoming anything in the Gulf. That map is almost 12 hours old. The low is moving south of west and headed toward the Mexican Pacific coast. Nothing on tap for the Gulf in the foreseeable future.
Quoting 71. belizeit:

https://www.facebook.com/Belizeanmeets?fref=ts ; Thats the link to some pictures on the flood in Belize City





Classic Belize City in a flood. Two guys need to get somewhere, there's this sink...problem solved! :-)

EDIT: OMG. It's actually a refrigerator!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche, southeastern Mexico, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. This system is likely to remain over land,
and development is therefore not expected. Locally heavy rainfall
is still possible across portions of southeastern Mexico and the
Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Berg


Rain chances & totals for Houston would have to go down unless there's something else at play here.
Its the easy way to get about just grab your refrigerator,
Quoting 74. sar2401:





Classic Belize City in a flood. Two guys need to get somewhere, there's this sink...problem solved! :-)

EDIT: OMG. It's actually a refrigerator!

Quoting 73. sar2401:

Already dead in terms of becoming anything in the Gulf. That map is almost 12 hours old. The low is moving south of west and headed toward the Mexican Pacific coast. Nothing on tap for the Gulf in the foreseeable future.




There is no way disturbances reach any GOM coasts. Wish there were.
Quoting 77. redwagon:





There is no way disturbances reach any GOM coasts. Wish there were.


Not even so much as a moisture plume?
Quoting 78. pureet1948:



Not even so much as a moisture plume?


I'm afraid not. Dismays me, too.
Quoting 75. pureet1948:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

Rain chances & totals for Houston would have to go down unless there's something else at play here.


This is a graphic from the NWS WFO in Houston, looks like they're expecting a different low to form.

Thank goodness for Google.I see I won't get the answer here.
Quoting 80. Astrometeor:



This is a graphic from the NWS WFO in Houston, looks like they're expecting a different low to form.





No, that's the same one. That graphic was made at 7:58 AM CDT. Think what's happening to 92L is a recent occurrence. Don't know how that affects forecaster confidence about heavy rains, though.
Quoting 10. barbamz:

Thanks for the Sunday update, Bob. I still hope it won't be that bad for Luzon but if the tracks won't change ... (currently the worst affected area still appears to be the province of Nueva Ecija from where most of the emergency calls come in).

And all in all: end is nigh anyway. Heavenly city appears in the clouds ;-)



Cloud 'floating city' sparks conspiracy debate
9news.com.au, 9:59am October 18, 2015
A cloud formation in China has baffled thousands and ignited conspiracy theories after appearing to resemble a 'floating alien city'.
The heavenly formation appeared in two separate incidents, first early last week in the city of Foshan, and a few days later in the province of Jiangxi.
The collection of clouds were said to look like a landscape of towering skyscrapers, with conspiracy theorists speculating it could be from an opening into a parallel universe, or be evidence of a secret NASA project called 'Project Blue Beam'. [...]
Less excitingly, weather experts said the cloud formation was the result of a natural phenomenon called Fata Morgana, a type of mirage which distorts objects as a result of atmospheric and temperature changes.



I have read accounts of this phenomena going back centuries, although I don't have ready access to them now. (Old books) and current are flooded with non-relevant results.
Quoting 73. sar2401:

Already dead in terms of becoming anything in the Gulf. That map is almost 12 hours old. The low is moving south of west and headed toward the Mexican Pacific coast. Nothing on tap for the Gulf in the foreseeable future.


All that remains is the pool of moisture left in the BOC and 97E's moisture being pulled north towards the Texas coast at the end of this week with the approach of the trough. A good chance this moisture will arrive just ahead of a frontal boundary. Also some potential for the pressure gradient to tighten up between the trough and the strong ridge of high pressure over the southeast and eastern gulf. Windy and wet tropical moisture but probably not a "tropical "system"-unless a weak low or surface trough pops up along the south TX coast.

I have not given up on rain...yet


700 mb heights, winds, rh-valid Friday.
Winds are really ramping up here in S FL. Makes me really want a TS or minimal hurricane to track again... :(
Suit yourself. I don't think there needs to be a disturbance present in order to get rain.

Quoting 82. pureet1948:




Old news. That graphic was made at 7:58 AM CDT. Think what's happening to 92L is a recent occurrence


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015/
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND
AND 10 TO 15 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES COMING
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST STARTING ON TUESDAY. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A LOW TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO AND
TEXAS GULF COASTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AROUND MIDWEEK
AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S 1 PM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW HAS
A NEAR ZERO PERCENT FORMATION CHANCE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR BOTH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS). THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO DETERMINE WHERE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OF CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE LEVELS
REMAIN LOW.
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

Do they retire storm names in the Western Pacific? I never hear of any getting retired.

They do they have their own wikipedia page
R.I.P 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You were full of wonders and heart stoppers. Many people were glued to their TV's here in FL during the possibility of a Cat 2 hitting FL, but Erika defying all models and dying. And Joaquin where all models but the amazing Euro showed a hurricane landfall on the East Coast. And then there was Fred the Cape Verde Hurricane, and Bill and Ana the U.S. landfall storms.
And now we look on to the winter, and the upcoming La Nina Hurricane Season! :)
Quoting 48. BahaHurican:

I thought he meant on the blog .... not in the world ....

Yes, that is correct...

PWAT's on Saturday.


850 mb winds on Saturday.


Quoting 86. Astrometeor:

Suit yourself. I don't think there needs to be a disturbance present in order to get rain.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015/
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND
AND 10 TO 15 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES COMING
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST STARTING ON TUESDAY. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A LOW TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO AND
TEXAS GULF COASTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AROUND MIDWEEK
AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S 1 PM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW HAS
A NEAR ZERO PERCENT FORMATION CHANCE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR BOTH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS). THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO DETERMINE WHERE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OF CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE LEVELS
REMAIN LOW.



In other words, Texas is about to meet the same fate as Luzon did with the typhoon, in terms of floods, blackouts, misery, etc.
Quoting 74. sar2401:





Classic Belize City in a flood. Two guys need to get somewhere, there's this sink...problem solved! :-)

EDIT: OMG. It's actually a refrigerator!
This kind of flooding is IFAIK one major reason they moved the capital to Belmopan .... Gotta admit the kids look like they're having fun ....

lol
Quoting 80. Astrometeor:



This is a graphic from the NWS WFO in Houston, looks like they're expecting a different low to form.


Think this one is supposed to somehow come in from the west .... though I admit I didn't fully grasp the dynamics ...
Quoting 89. PedleyCA:


Yes, that is correct...
You were right .... usually Sunday afternoon is good for a couple hundred posts ....
Meanwhile, it still looks fairly active over MX and Belize ....
Quoting 45. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

our first flurries of the season yesterday is about 3 weeks early

normal year don't see flurries till the end of the first week of November



I'm not that farther north than you, we had some snow starting Fri night not that much, but we have had up to 8" in the beginning of October before.
96. vis0

Quoting 10. barbamz:

Thanks for the Sunday update, Bob. I still hope it won't be that bad for Luzon but if the tracks won't change ... (currently the worst affected area still appears to be the province of Nueva Ecija from where most of the emergency calls come in).

And all in all: end is nigh anyway. Heavenly city appears in the clouds ;-)



Cloud 'floating city' sparks conspiracy debate
9news.com.au, 9:59am October 18, 2015
A cloud formation in China has baffled thousands and ignited conspiracy theories after appearing to resemble a 'floating alien city'.
The heavenly formation appeared in two separate incidents, first early last week in the city of Foshan, and a few days later in the province of Jiangxi.
The collection of clouds were said to look like a landscape of towering skyscrapers, with conspiracy theorists speculating it could be from an opening into a parallel universe, or be evidence of a secret NASA project called 'Project Blue Beam'. [...]
Less excitingly, weather experts said the cloud formation was the result of a natural phenomenon called Fata Morgana, a type of mirage which distorts objects as a result of atmospheric and temperature changes.

FROM :: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fata_Morgana_(mirag e)  (The PP below is about 35% down the Wikki page, as the scroll flys.)

"While explaining the phenomenon to his crew, the captain might more precisely have used the word refraction rather than reflection,
since the "reflection" is due to a refractive effect of layers of air.
The book illustration shown above is also incorrect in the way it shows
the mirage on the right: a mirage image is never wider than the source
object. All the distortion and enlargement caused by this kind of mirage
occurs in the vertical direction, never horizontally." cue the suspicious & dramatic music...it appears wider than the original as to buildings but not wider as to city, which wider is the definition talking 'bout.

example i stand next to sar2401, STS, Taz.

We are equal in width oh lets say 20''...(HA there's 2 jokes)

The Fata Morgana is not wider than all four of us (20''x4=80'') but it shows me 2 times wider (40'') so only 1 other of the 3 other WxU members should be visible.  Add another members "image" next to me which are 20'' to the Fata's width.

Therefore even though i and the person next to me seem optically wider the total Fata is under 80'' as the mirage cannot be wider that the original / COMPLETE AREA which is 4 people or 80 '' wide.

also  is the camera shot edited or uncut, i wish it stayed on the image till the clouds dissipated, moved or cam battery died.

WEATHER OBS near-by USofA:: Interesting 3 blips * and Blob (not an official grothar call)
The 3 blips are loosing oomph, they are::

- 92L (though it might be 'cause its trying to relocate its center, and it can't fit all its needs into one samsonite® pouch).
- The blip north of Belize (looks healthiest at all 3 levels of the 3 blips but still losing strength)
- Finally a blip west of Belize entering the ePac.

- The blob i mention is the western most disturbance SW of Campeche off the Mexican coast IN THE  ePac.

i think hurricane season is done for the Atlantic
Quoting 54. BobHenson:



Thanks so much, mitthbevnuruodo! It's really an honor to be here blogging with Jeff and interacting with the amazing WU community. For years before joining the blog, I learned a great deal from Jeff's posts and everyone's dialogue here. My primary goal as Jeff's co-blogger was basically not to fall on my face; hopefully I've accomplished that! :-)

Cheers,
Bob


I'm sure that I'm late to the game
We do love you and your posts Bob.
Happy to have you
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

Do they retire storm names in the Western Pacific? I never hear of any getting retired.
yes they do. Ex Bopha, Haiyan, Washi.
Hmmm .... dare I hope for clouds with no rain tomorrow???



Going off to bed to dream of overcast skies and 15 kt winds ..... [g]
Quoting 80. Astrometeor:



This is a graphic from the NWS WFO in Houston, looks like they're expecting a different low to form.


That was 92L before it decided it wanted to go to the beach on the Pacific side. There's a good moisture pool left, and a front coming down late in the week, so this may provide coastal TX with some rain yet.
Happy to say I give it less than 1% chance of a major hurricane hitting the Florida coast this year.
Quoting 88. Camerooski:

R.I.P 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You were full of wonders and heart stoppers. Many people were glued to their TV's here in FL during the possibility of a Cat 2 hitting FL, but Erika defying all models and dying. And Joaquin where all models but the amazing Euro showed a hurricane landfall on the East Coast. And then there was Fred the Cape Verde Hurricane, and Bill and Ana the U.S. landfall storms.
And now we look on to the winter, and the upcoming La Nina Hurricane Season! :)

lol
Quoting 92. BahaHurican:

This kind of flooding is IFAIK one major reason they moved the capital to Belmopan .... Gotta admit the kids look like they're having fun ....
That, plus the hurricane risks, overcrowding, and general crime levels. I had to look a couple of times before I realized they were paddling around in a fridge. A fridge being paddled with a couple of boards must be hard work. :-)
Quoting 102. unknowncomic:

Happy to say I give it less than 1% chance of a major hurricane hitting the Florida coast this year.
Based on what, exactly?
Quoting 88. Camerooski:

R.I.P 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
You're getting a little ahead of the end of the season, kid. :-)
Quoting 105. sar2401:

Based on what, exactly?
El Nino shear winter shear and getting close to November. Nothing in the forecast model horizon that would head toward Florida.
Quoting 88. Camerooski:

R.I.P 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You were full of wonders and heart stoppers. Many people were glued to their TV's here in FL during the possibility of a Cat 2 hitting FL, but Erika defying all models and dying. And Joaquin where all models but the amazing Euro showed a hurricane landfall on the East Coast. And then there was Fred the Cape Verde Hurricane, and Bill and Ana the U.S. landfall storms.
And now we look on to the winter, and the upcoming La Nina Hurricane Season! :)


Please stop already. People were not glued to their tv sets about any of them. If they were, they were misinformed by another source.
Quoting 84. beell:



All that remains is the pool of moisture left in the BOC and 97E's moisture being pulled north towards the Texas coast at the end of this week with the approach of the trough. A good chance this moisture will arrive just ahead of a frontal boundary. Also some potential for the pressure gradient to tighten up between the trough and the strong ridge of high pressure over the southeast and eastern gulf. Windy and wet tropical moisture but probably not a "tropical "system"-unless a weak low or surface trough pops up along the south TX coast.

I have not given up on rain...yet


700 mb heights, winds, rh-valid Friday.
Probably as a good a chance as you can get without having a tropical storm. As you say, yet another front diving south may help spruce things up a bit in terms of a tail end low. Unfortunately, the dry spell here continues.
Quoting 108. unknowncomic:

El Nino shear winter shear and getting close to November. Nothing in the forecast model horizon that would head toward Florida.
The model "forecast horizon" pretty much sucks past five days. There are still 43 days left in the official season. The chances of WDW getting a hit is shown in this graph. That's actually a bit less likely than south Florida, but it stands for illustration. The chances fall off rapidly as we get to the end of October but a secondary peak occurs after November 1. The chances in the first two weeks of November hover at a little above 10%.


Edit: Chance of anywhere in Florida getting hit, not just WDW. My mistake.

Quoting 111. sar2401:

The model "forecast horizon" pretty much sucks past five days. There are still 43 days left in the official season. The chances of WDW getting a hit is shown in this graph. That's actually a bit less likely than south Florida, but it stands for illustration. The chances fall off rapidly as we get to the end of October but a secondary peak occurs after November 1. The chances in the first two weeks of November hover at a little above 10%.


Nice graphic. You notice I said a major hurricane.
Quoting 88. Camerooski:

R.I.P 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You were full of wonders and heart stoppers. Many people were glued to their TV's here in FL during the possibility of a Cat 2 hitting FL, but Erika defying all models and dying. And Joaquin where all models but the amazing Euro showed a hurricane landfall on the East Coast. And then there was Fred the Cape Verde Hurricane, and Bill and Ana the U.S. landfall storms.
And now we look on to the winter, and the upcoming La Nina Hurricane Season! :)

Bless your heart.
In reality, the local news wasn't hyping Erika and the only ones I saw even mildly concerned were 4 old waiters in a chinese restaurant worried about losing $10 in tips while watching FOX, NBC/TWC, other national hype weather on TV. The manager was hyped from watching too and lamenting that his customers were at Publix "stocking up"...I told him to calm down as chances of a hurricane were weak and the customers would come back Wednesday when they realized they didn't have to "hunker down".
Two inches of rain within the last 45 minutes fell here, still ongoing...
These fresh frontal breezes tonight in SEFL got me thinking about the winter ahead and what may be in store this time around with a healthy EL Nino in place, Night All.
Quoting 113. CosmicEvents:


Bless your heart.
In reality, the local news wasn't hyping Erika and the only ones I saw even mildly concerned were 4 old waiters in a chinese restaurant worried about losing $10 in tips while watching FOX, NBC/TWC, other national hype weather on TV. The manager was hyped from watching too and lamenting that his customers were at Publix "stocking up"...I told him to calm down as chances of a hurricane were weak and the customers would come back Wednesday when they realized they didn't have to "hunker down".

I guess you are in an historic period of lack of hurricanes and storms for Florida. Enjoy, good for you. In the Eastern Caribbean a few weak irrelevant storms that didn't provide the rain needed in the area. Western Caribbean "El niño", made sure to keep things quiet. But agree, hurricane season is about over...then again, who knows it's "Super el Nino year",,, maybe a surprise is left to end the season...
Quoting 115. ProgressivePulse:

These fresh frontal breezes tonight in SEFL got me thinking about the winter ahead and what may be in store this time around with a healthy EL Nino in place, Night All.


Took a look at the street near my apt, water has covered the whole street. Though provided these don't continue through the night, it'll be just small ponds by morning.
3inches of rain in my area in the last 1 and 15 minutes. Minor street flooding occurring.
Cookie Lavaito
Sar! Hey Sar!!

Am I on your ignore list? huh? huh? Am I?

hahahaha - - sorry I am in the middle of a long work stretch and I'm a little batty around the edges.

Cosmic... I am so honored...
Quoting 112. unknowncomic:

Yes, I did. I have no clue which of the cyclones in the 12 or 13 percent might be a major hurricane. I do think the chances one might be are greater than 1%.
Is the site broken again?
Quoting 120. aquak9:

Sar! Hey Sar!!

Am I on your ignore list? huh? huh? Am I?

hahahaha - - sorry I am in the middle of a long work stretch and I'm a little batty around the edges.

Cosmic... I am so honored...
I could never put a water dog on my list. :-) I remember stretches of work like that. Thankfully, they are just a fading memory now.
Hey you guys, how are you. What's new.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

You're getting a little ahead of the end of the season, kid. :-) no I say it's over with. No more hurricanes for us this year. We are completely done with it, winter time is next. Farewell good bye hurricane season
Good bye hurricane season, "maybe not officially" but it's pretty much over with. I'm ready for the big low pressure riding the gulf coast and bringing some good winter storms
Quoting 122. sar2401:

Is the site broken again?


I'm just going to blame you for breaking the blog. :-)
128. vis0

Quoting 70. sar2401:

The Magic 8 Ball Company International is on alert! Those scamps are still threatening it will never rain here again unless I give them my paypal password. So far, they must be onto something, since it hasn't rained since October 2. :-)
reply at zilly pg4 cmmnt#164



Texas Gulf Coast doomsday! Could be unprecedented event.
Lando - Koppo news

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/10/19/1 5/lando-could-stay-till-sunday-storm-warnings-22-a reas
Quoting 127. Astrometeor:



I'm just going to blame you for breaking the blog. :-)
LOL. It wasn't updating for about 15 minutes. Must be the crack team doing maintenance.
Quoting 88. Camerooski:

R.I.P 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You were full of wonders and heart stoppers. Many people were glued to their TV's here in FL during the possibility of a Cat 2 hitting FL, but Erika defying all models and dying. And Joaquin where all models but the amazing Euro showed a hurricane landfall on the East Coast. And then there was Fred the Cape Verde Hurricane, and Bill and Ana the U.S. landfall storms.
And now we look on to the winter, and the upcoming La Nina Hurricane Season! :)

To quote Yogi Berra: "It ain't over till it's over."


"Another one bites the dust" of the 2015 season...
Accidentally I posted my comment twice, sorry (138. is the good). This one is erasable.
Good morning everyone.

Typhoon Koppu: race to rescue trapped villagers as floodwaters keep rising
More than 60,000 people have been displaced as heavy downpours continue to drench vital farming areas in the Philippines
Agence France-Press/The Guardian, Monday 19 October 2015 07.08 BST
Residents of flooded farming villages in the Philippines were trapped on their rooftops on Monday as deadly typhoon Koppu dumped more intense rain.
Koppu, the second-strongest storm to hit the south-east Asian archipelago this year, has killed two people and forced more than 60,000 people from their homes, authorities said.
After making landfall on Sunday morning on the east coast of Luzon, the Philippines' biggest island, the slow-moving typhoon brought heavy rain to some of the nation’s most important farming areas.
"I've never seen anything like this. It's the worst flood I've seen in my entire life," farmer Reynaldo Ramos, 68, said as he walked through knee-deep water in Santa Rosa, about two hours’ drive north of Manila.
Military, local government and volunteer rescue units were trying to help residents in about 70 villages that were under water, with the floods spreading, according to Nigel Lontoc, a regional rescue official. "The floods are rising fast and some people are now on their rooftops," Lontoc said. ...

Whole article see link above.


Photo from that article. A resident uses a tyre inner tube to bring a pig to safety amidst raging floodwaters at Zaragosa township, Nueva Ecija province, on Monday. Photograph: Bullit Marquez/AP



The cyclone SW of the Iberian Peninsula started to fireing up deeper convection, as it moved over warmer water at night. But it is still sheared a bit. If the yesterday's ECMWF had right, it will develop further until today evening.

The convective system between Spain and the Balears also looks interesting, but the weather station on the Balears report easterly winds, so that is maybe only a mid-level feature.

What is the risk to Taiwan from Koppu's heavy rains, as the storm tracks northwards?
Quoting 77. redwagon:





There is no way disturbances reach any GOM coasts. Wish there were.


Maybe it will come to San Diego after it crosses!
143. MahFL
Looks like Koppu is intensifying again :



Good morning!

The Atlantic 2015 Hurricane Season: So far, we have had 10 named storms.


2006 is the last time that the Atlantic basin did not produce a named storm in October or November.

We are now entering the last 10 days of October. Normally, chances for a named storm forming ... decreases.

Although 92L seems to be long-gone, and the NHC never gave it much of a chance 20% (1 in 5) chance of forming ...

What is going on in the NW Caribbean? Convection is firing up.. looks interesting.





Quoting 144. Stormwatch247:

Good morning!

The Atlantic 2015 Hurricane Season: So far, we have had 10 named storms.


2006 is the last time that the Atlantic basin did not produce a named storm in October or November.

We are now entering the last 10 days of October. Normally, chances for a named storm forming ... decreases.

Although 92L seems to be long-gone, and the NHC never gave it much of a chance 20% (1 in 5) chance of forming ...

What is going on in the NW Caribbean? Convection is firing up.. looks interesting.






Should we be watching that system firing off persistent convection off the coast of the Yucatan?
Quoting 146. Camerooski:

Should we be watching that system firing off persistent convection off the coast of the Yucatan?


You should be out of your homeroom and in your first class. Please, Cam. If they ask you to raise your hand, remove the Ipad first!!!
Nino 3.4 remains @ 2.4C. What is setting this El-Nino apart from them all so far is that we have already seen 10 straight weeks of values over 2.0C. That has never been done before up to this time in October.

Both the Euro and GFS are showing a active pattern across the SE US later this week thru next week. Likely a prelude to whats to come the rest of this Fall thru Winter. Going to be interesting as temps continue to get colder across the South in the coming weeks. Likely some across TN thru NC could see their first snow of the season before Christmas.

Quoting 147. Grothar:



You should be out of your homeroom and in your first class. Please, Cam. If they ask you to raise your hand, remove the Ipad first!!!
LOL I'm in Modern World Honors right now so boring.....
Quoting 149. StormTrackerScott:

Both the Euro and GFS are showing a active pattern across the SE US later this week thru next week. Likely a prelude to whats to come the rest of this Fall thru Winter. Going to be interesting as temps continue to get colder across the South in the coming weeks. Likely some across TN thru NC could see their first snow of the season before Christmas.


FLA will get dumped on with rain in the winter
Quoting 149. StormTrackerScott:

Both the Euro and GFS are showing a active pattern across the SE US later this week thru next week. Likely a prelude to whats to come the rest of this Fall thru Winter. Going to be interesting as temps continue to get colder across the South in the coming weeks. Likely some across TN thru NC could see their first snow of the season before Christmas.


Over the next few weeks, the Southeast will see some of the normal cooling it experiences this time of year--it is nearly November, after all--but the CPC says there'll be no snow anytime soon.





...which is fine by me. The cold will be here soon enough; I'm happy for the warmth to stick around as long as it wants to...
Quoting 147. Grothar:



You should be out of your homeroom and in your first class. Please, Cam. If they ask you to raise your hand, remove the Ipad first!!!



LOL !!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a weak area
of low pressure. Only marginally conducive upper-level winds and
the potential for this system to interact with land should preclude
significant development as this disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward into the Bay of Campeche during the next few days.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains in
association with this system should spread from the Yucatan
peninsula into southeastern Mexico through at least mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent



Quoting 152. Neapolitan:

Over the next few weeks, the Southeast will see some of the normal cooling it experiences this time of year--it is nearly November, after all--but the CPC says there'll be no snow anytime soon.





...which is fine by me. The cold will be here soon enough; I'm happy for the warmth to stick around as long as it wants to...


What I am saying Nea is that if this pattern continues then in December likely before Christmas the south may be in for a treat. Here in FL Fall is struggling to make its appearance this year with lows only falling to the mid 60's so far.
Quoting 151. Camerooski:

FLA will get dumped on with rain in the winter


....but where remains to be the question.

I remember 97-98 20 mi SE of Tampa where my bahia lawn stayed green all that winter....this time around we'll just have to wait & see what that "pineapple express" brings my way up in N Florida
158. vis0
Extracting from a Hydrus comment a few days ago, ~" imagine if there were no land where the Campeche-Tehuantepec pinch is, how many more Hurricanes the USofA would get"~.

To my untrained eyes its as the center of all these activities is over the Camp-Tehu pinch and the 4 quadrants of the to-be-if-no-land-existed-there big LOW are the 4 blips over 92L(Mexico), ePac, Belieze, Guatamala.

What are my eyes trained for...sweets! 20/20 vision...10/10 if you include hindsight.

Back to observing world's (our real home)  weather.
Quoting 156. StormTrackerScott:



What I am saying Nea is that if this pattern continues then in December likely before Christmas the south may be in for a treat. Here in FL Fall is struggling to make its appearance this year with lows only falling to the mid 60's so far.


....down in your neck o' the woods Scott.....up my way we've had lows in the low to mid 50's overnight recently.

Speaking of which.....now's a good time to "de-leaf" those bulging gutters on your place in preparation for the coming deluges
Good Morning. The Atlantic Season is dead in the water at the moment due to shear and the jet stream pattern as it should be this late in the season and in an El Nino year. Conversely, the E-Pac and West Pac still firing up storms:





Quoting 150. Camerooski:

LOL I'm in Modern World Honors right now so boring.....


....boring....I don't doubt it.

I'm "caretaking" 2 grandkids since April.....and the Komon Kore curriculum I see they're being taught is sorely lacking in critical thinking.
Quoting 158. vis0:

Extracting from a Hydrus comment a few days ago, ~" imagine if there were no land where the Campeche-Tehuantepec pinch is, how many more Hurricanes the USofA would get"~.

To my untrained eyes its as the center of all these activities is over the Camp-Tehu pinch and the 4 quadrants of the to-be-if-no-land-existed-there big LOW are the 4 blips over 92L(Mexico), ePac, Belieze, Guatamala.

What are my eyes trained for...sweets! 20/20 vision...10/10 if you include hindsight.

Back to observing world's (our real home)  weather.




Dear Lord, I think I understood this. What's happening to me?????????
Huh !! Would ya look @ that....a 80mph jet over S Florida !!

Quoting 162. Grothar:




Dear Lord, I think I understood this. What's happening to me?????????


I don't trust him...

Quoting 164. GeoffreyWPB:



I don't trust him...




But he knows how to serve man.
Quoting 155. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a weak area
of low pressure. Only marginally conducive upper-level winds and
the potential for this system to interact with land should preclude
significant development as this disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward into the Bay of Campeche during the next few days.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains in
association with this system should spread from the Yucatan
peninsula into southeastern Mexico through at least mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent






I'm glad you posted this. I have been trying to explain that the expected rain along the Texas coast may not be assosiated with 92L at all, but another system later this week.
Quoting 134. Krycek1984:



Come on why can't you ever write a coherent post?


Not true.....Vis0's posts may seem cryptic....but when time is taken to dissect his posts....the fog begins to lift & one can see more clearly.

Clearly vis0 is a kindred spirit & is most likely a brilliant individual....along the lines of the Mensa type
Quoting 83. MontanaZephyr:



I have read accounts of this phenomena going back centuries, although I don't have ready access to them now. (Old books) and current are flooded with non-relevant results.


The term, Fata Morgana, made me think of KIng Arthur's story.. and sure enough that's the origin of this phenomenon's name. Wiki on Fata Morgana mentions old books and historic sightings, perhaps some of those you had in mind.

Thank you and barbamz for bringing this up yesterday. Interesting!
Ps. And visO also, I now see!
Quoting 167. KuCommando:



Not true.....Vis0's posts may seem cryptic....but when time is taken to dissect his posts....the fog begins to lift & one can see more clearly.

Clearly vis0 is a kindred spirit & is most likely a brilliant individual....along the lines of the Mensa type
Mensa means nothing. I tested at 174 when I was 15years old... still have the paperwork... I was the most brilliant alcoholic at the bar for many years.

IQ doesn't mean as much as people think.

Carry on...
Quoting 169. aquak9:

Mensa means nothing. I tested at 174 when I was 15years old... still have the paperwork... I was the most brilliant alcoholic at the bar for many years.

IQ doesn't mean as much as people think.

Carry on...
Obvious to many of us, aqua, that you are brilliant.
;)
I come on here and see that the comments from last night are still on the same page.

Hahaha... no one gives a rip about this season anymore: one little pitiful 10% in the EXTREME southern BOC.......
Quoting 165. Grothar:



But he knows how to serve man.


"It's a cook book !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Hilarious, Barefoot, hahaha, thank you.
Quoting 172. weathermanwannabe:



"It's a cook book !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"


Too many old people on here lol
Quoting 171. opal92nwf:

I come on here and see that the comments from last night are still on the same page.

Hahaha... no one gives a rip about this season anymore: one little pitiful 10% in the EXTREME southern BOC.......
We should have storm formation now that you have dissed the tropics.
Quoting 169. aquak9:

Mensa means nothing. I tested at 174 when I was 15years old... still have the paperwork... I was the most brilliant alcoholic at the bar for many years.

IQ doesn't mean as much as people think.

Carry on...



I joined mensa and Mrs. Grothar joined girlsa. We had a very good time.
Quoting 169. aquak9:

Mensa means nothing. I tested at 174 when I was 15years old... still have the paperwork... I was the most brilliant alcoholic at the bar for many years.

IQ doesn't mean as much as people think.

Carry on...
The intellect of the wise is like glass; it admits the light of heaven and reflects it.
Augustus Hare.
brainyquote.com
Quoting 167. KuCommando:



Not true.....Vis0's posts may seem cryptic....but when time is taken to dissect his posts....the fog begins to lift & one can see more clearly.

Clearly vis0 is a kindred spirit & is most likely a brilliant individual....along the lines of the Mensa type
There is humor involved also..Which is lifting during the darker times.
Quoting 161. KuCommando:



....boring....I don't doubt it.

I'm "caretaking" 2 grandkids since April.....and the Komon Kore curriculum I see they're being taught is sorely lacking in critical thinking.


Ironic, since one of the primary reasons behind the push for CC was to increase critical thinking...

EDIT: Additional thought - Dr. Masters' blog at the end of hurricane season with little imminent development in the Atlantic and after vigorous discussion (re: Joaquin) reminds me of a nearly empty stadium after a major sporting event. Some people remain, talking about random stuff, but mostly there is just litter blowing in the breeze and some officials cleaning up..
Persistent little bugger.....................


Well I called it last week.Even the MJO moving into the Atlantic couldn't spark development.Once again a whole lotta nothing happening besides some big necessary rains that are needed in drought areas like what happening the last time when the MJO came around.
Persistent Blob East of the Yucatan Peninsula,if anything that form in this area this time of year supposed to move North and North East?,why the National Hurricane Center have a yellow X moving west??.
This area look nasty!!! and growing in size.
Windy here in Miami,but not the 30 mph,that was advertised for days!!.
187. beell
Quoting 182. weathermanwannabe:

Persistent little bugger.....................





A model cannot deal with transient vorticity maximums cyclonically circulating around the monsoonal gyre!
(don't know if that is correct-but it sounds good)
:)
Well i dont believe we can call this season a bust since we did have some interesting storms to follow. But i will say that in my opinion, the season is over.lol Now to look forward to old man Winter and his white, fluffy goodness. lol
Quoting 159. KuCommando:



....down in your neck o' the woods Scott.....up my way we've had lows in the low to mid 50's overnight recently.

Speaking of which.....now's a good time to "de-leaf" those bulging gutters on your place in preparation for the coming deluges


And my Central MD garden froze this morning 10/19. Record low at BWI for the date of 29F which beats the previous record set in 1976, unlike this one, an extremely cold fall all season! This fall has been overall warm so far here in DC and it will be frustrating to see the warm sunshine on the freeze dead plants for the next two weeks or so (But I do have broccoli, lettuce, spinach still doing well and they'll advance a lot over the next month) 20 pounds of green tomatoes in the house.. last gasp for the season.

The freeze in College Park was lighter than I expected though only nipping a few plants in my backyard. My more exposed rental garden though, I'm sure, got a season ending frost for the warm season plants. There was frost damage from the morning of 10/18, visible in the afternoon when I got those tomatoes, and we were a few degrees colder last night 10/18-19

August 1 planted corn didn't make it! Needed five more good growing days :-(




Getting hammered with rain and wind , looks like night here!
Just recorded a 36 mph sustained wind here in Laud. by the Sea :)
Quoting 165. Grothar:



But he knows how to serve man.


It's a Cookbook....lol
Quoting 160. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. The Atlantic Season is dead in the water at the moment due to shear and the jet stream pattern as it should be this late in the season and in an El Nino year. Conversely, the E-Pac and West Pac still firing up storms:








USA dodged a bullet with Joaquin, let's hope it's like that the rest of the season.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Blobbish No?
199. vis0
Quoting 162. Grothar:




Dear Lord, I think I understood this. What's happening to me?????????
Dear Supreme pizza    Being (aka Grothar) i' don't...yahoo! i'm going sane! nooooooooooooo!

One thing i hope other do if your near the end of a Dr. Masters' blog and post something zilly as i at times do, is to leave something to remind readers as to this blogs subject. Sure we had a chuckle but lets not forget the blogbytes subject...
BLOG was on :: Worst Flooding Still to Come in Philippines from Koppu.  As with the Carolina flooding, Bermuda's battle with Joaquin and other natural or man made disasters throughout the world, try to keep up with the latest here on WxU. Think of ideas/ways to help and share them so we can join in with other that want to leave the world better off for other human beings just like you, to enjoy.



Houston is now in the 3-inch rain total range according to (current) 00z GFS model run. That is five inches less than originally predicted by the GFS. Any thoughts?