WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Disastrous Rains Possible in Philippines from Typhoon Koppu; Mudslides Wallop SoCal

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2015

Heavy rains have begun on the Philippines' main island of Luzon as intensifying Typhoon Koppu heads west-northwest at 11 mph towards the Philippines. At 8 am EDT Friday, Koppu was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and satellite loops showed that Koppu had an impressive ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops that extended high into the atmosphere. The combination of low wind shear, warm ocean waters that extend to great depth and the presence of two impressive upper level outflow channels make it likely that Koppu will rapidly intensify to Category 4 status before landfall occurs near 18 UTC (2 pm EDT) Saturday on Luzon. Unfortunately for the Philippines, Koppu will then slow and turn to the north as the storm begins to feel the steering influence of a trough of low pressure passing to its north, and the center of the storm is likely to spend 2 - 2.5 days over Luzon before finally emerging to the north of Luzon on Monday or Tuesday. This will subject the island to an extended period of torrential rains, and some truly prodigious amounts of rainfall are being predicted. The 06Z (2 am EDT) Friday runs of the both the HWRF and GFDL models predicted that Koppu would intensify to Category 4 strength before making landfall, and showed large areas of 24+ inches of rain for Luzon over the next five days. The capital of Manila (population 12 million) was near the southern boundary of the predicted 12-inch rainfall totals. While rainfall forecasts from these two models are often overdone by 50%, it appears likely that a historic rainfall event is likely for the Philippines. Expect widespread damaging flooding capable of causing a top-five most expensive disaster in Philippine history.



Figure 1. Typhoon Koppu (left) and Typhoon Champi (right) as seen by Japan's Himawari satellite on Friday, October 16, 2015. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Typhoon Koppu.


Figure 3. Predicted 5-day rainfall amounts from Typhoon Koppu from the 06Z (2 am EDT) Friday, October 16, 2015 run of the GFDL model. Widespread rainfall amounts in excess of two feet (orange and red colors) were predicted for the Philippines' Luzon Island, north of the capital of Manila. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Best historical analogue for Koppu's rains: the historic rains of August, 2013?
The best historical analogue for the rains expected from Koppu may be an extreme monsoon rainfall event on August 18 - 21, 2013, which was enhanced by moisture from Tropical Storm Trami. Up to 600 millimeters (23.5 inches) of rain fell during one 24-hour stretch, and about 60% of metro Manila was under water at one point. At least 27 people died, and damage was estimated at $2.2 billion, making it the Philippines' second most expensive disaster in their history.

The top five most expensive disasters in Philippines history, according to EM-DAT (dollar values unadjusted for inflation):

1) Super Typhoon Haiyan, 11/8/2013, $10 billion
2) Monsoon rains increased by Tropical Storm Trami, 8/20/2013, $2.19 billion
3) Super Typhoon Bopha, 12/4/2012, $898 million
4) Super Typhoon Rammasun, 7/15/2014, $821 million
5) Tropical Storm Nina, 9/4/1995, $700 million

Elsewhere in the Pacific: Typhoon Champi, TD 19E, and Tropical Cyclone Two
Category 1 Typhoon Champi passed through the Northern Mariana Islands early Friday, and is expected to intensify into a Category 3 storm and turn to the north by Sunday. By Tuesday, a weakening Champi may pass close enough to Iwo Jima to bring tropical storm-force winds to that island.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 19E is slowly organizing as it heads west at 16 mph towards Hawaii. TD 19E is predicted to reach hurricane strength by Monday, but will turn to the north well before reaching Hawaii, eventually dying in the waters between Hawaii and California late next week. TD 19E is not a threat to any land areas.

In the South Pacific, Tropical Cyclone Two, the second tropical cyclone of the 2015 - 2016 season, has formed in the waters about 300 miles north of Fiji. High wind shear is expected to tear TC Two apart by Sunday.

Tropical development in Gulf, heavy rains on Gulf Coast possible late next week
Our leading models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis are becoming more insistent that a tropical disturbance could develop in the Bay of Campeche toward the latter part of next week, possibly moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The last several sets of GFS ensembles support the idea of tropical or subtropical development in this area, and the 00Z Friday operational runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models show potential for least slow, modest development late next week and beyond. The focal point is a sharp cold front that moved across the Gulf of Mexico this week. As the front stalls and slowly returns north as a warm front over the next week, an area of disturbed weather should gradually move from the northwest Caribbean toward the Bay of Campeche, where low pressure of some type may begin to consolidate. In October and November, the most likely areas for Atlantic tropical cyclone formation shift from the open Atlantic to the Caribbean and southern Gulf, so the scenarios painted by the models agree fairly well with climatology. Often these cyclones form along decaying frontal systems pushed into the region by the first large, cool Canadian air masses of the autumn.


Figure 4. A large area of rich moisture and disturbed weather, designated Invest 92L by NHC on Friday afternoon, now covers much of the northwest Caribbean, as shown in this infrared satellite image from 1445Z (10:45 am EDT) Friday, October 16, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.

Next week’s projected development would be aided to some extent by a strong upper low settling into the southwestern U.S. early next week. This low is predicted to cut off over southern Arizona late in the week before moving northeast into the central U.S. It’s too soon to know whether any development in the Gulf would be tropical or subtropical, but the time of year and projected values of wind shear would tend to favor the latter, especially if strong jet-stream winds associated with the low manage to extend as far east as the western Gulf. Sea-surface temperatures, though cooling with the season, remain warm enough to support tropical or subtropical development over most of the Gulf. Any system that does develop would most likely track toward the north or northeast, steered by the flow between the upper low over Arizona and a strong upper-level ridge over the central Gulf. If model trends are any indication, this could be a very slow-moving feature. Should the area of low pressure stay too close to the western Gulf Coast--a possibility strongly suggested by the models--then interaction with land would hinder tropical development. Another potential complication would be any tropical development in the Pacific just south of the Bay of Campeche, as suggested by the 00Z Friday run of the ECMWF.

Apart from any tropical development, the overall set-up and its slow evolution will support a prolonged period of heavy rain over and near the western Gulf. Rains should begin early next week along the Texas coast, potentially shifting into the central Gulf Coast later in the week. The 7-day precipitation forecast from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center is already calling for 1” – 3” from Houston to Brownsville through Friday, October 23, with most of that projected to fall from Monday onward.



Figure 5. Vehicles are stopped in mud on California's Interstate 5 after flooding Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015. Image credit: Caltrans, via AP.

Southern California walloped by heavy thunderstorms, mudslides
Parts of Interstate 5 were still closed on Friday morning after an intense cluster of thunderstorms dumped torrential rain in the Antelope Valley just north of the Los Angeles metro area on Thursday afternoon. The rains took out several roads and generated mudslides and floods that engulfed nearly 200 vehicles on a state highway east of Tehachapi in mud up to 20 feet deep. Some motorists stayed in their vehicles overnight. No injuries were reported, but the road closures are a major headache for this populous, auto-dependent region. The mudslides and floods (dramatically captured by traffic helicopters) also serve as an unsettling preview of what we might expect from the heavy rains El Niño will likely bring to the region this winter.

Thursday’s intense thunderstorms--large and strong enough to resemble a Midwestern mesoscale convective complex--produced golf-ball-sized hail and thousands of lightning strikes along with torrential rain. The storms were triggered by a tenacious upper-low located just off the Southern California coast. This low carried out a very unusual 12-day loop-de-loop over the last few days, moving in clockwise fashion from Southern California on October 5 to the El Paso area by October 8, Baja California by October 10, well offshore by October 13, and then back around to Southern California. Meanwhile, low-level winds pumped very sultry air into the region over several days; this air mass became highly unstable as it was overtopped by cold upper-level air associated with the upper low. On Wednesday morning, dew point temperatures (which indicate the amount of water vapor in the surface air) hit 69°F in downtown Los Angeles and 72°F in San Diego’s Lindbergh Field—very high values for both locations. Record- or near-record warm sea-surface temperatures from the Southern California coast to Hawaii, partly associated with El Niño, are helping push up moisture values across the region.


Figure 6. Powerful thunderstorms are clustered just north of Los Angeles in this visible satellite image from 2310 GMT (4:10 pm PDT) Thursday, October 15, 2015. Image credit: NEXLAB/College of DuPage.

Two-day precipitation totals ending at 6:00 pm PDT Thursday included 2.37” at Poppy Park and 3.58” at Leona Valley in northern LA County. Rainfall rates near Leona Valley were briefly as high as 4”-6” per hour. While the storms raged, it was fairly tranquil on the other side of the San Gabriel Mountains: no rain was reported in either Los Angeles or San Diego.

Flash flood watches and warnings remained in effect on Friday for large parts of Southern California east and north of the LA Basin. Normally parched Death Valley was under a flash flood warning Friday morning for the second consecutive day. Death Valley’s Furnace Creek observation site received 0.70” of rain this month through Tuesday. Data for Wednesday and Thursday are unavailable, but it is possible Furnace Creek is approaching or has already topped its all-time October rainfall record (1.09”, from 1972). Thanks to weather.com’s Jon Erdman and Nick Wiltgen for details on the Death Valley rains. The embedded Facebook clip below shows flooding on Thursday in the Tehachapi area north of Los Angeles.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has more to say on the situation in his Friday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Posted by Jose Antonio Vargas on Thursday, October 15, 2015



Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.

Poor Cali-
when it rains it pours.
Thank You..That is serious stuff in the video you posted.
Great read and amazing video at the end. Thanks!
Does not go away fast either...

Quoting 370. StormTrackerScott:

MJO is about as strong as it gets the next 2 weeks and likely into November across the Western Caribbean & Central America.


Thank you Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson for an update to the weather happening around the world. It seems like the effects of El-Nino are already starting to be felt in Southern California with the torrential rains leading to flash flooding and mudslides. I don't even want to begin to imagine what is in store for them this winter.
Quoting 2. rmbjoe1954:

Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.

Poor Cali-
when it rains it pours.


Humidity's been insufferable for about a week. Yes, humidity in California - it's so weird. Probably a sign of things to come.
Thank You Messers Masters and Henson.

We were talking about our "local" fresh water sources this am from our bloggers around the US and the World (from snowpack to aquafers), but did not include flood related natural disasters in my poll from low pressure systems (including storms). Your Blog today illustrates how tenuous the issues of rain/precip are when related to need against what Mother Nature will provide, or not provide, in any given year.

You rarely get the "perfect" amount of year round precipitation for any region in the world; you can go from parching drought to needed rain but if the rain is too much (due to a low pressure system or tropical storm) at one time then you get flooding damage.

No good news for the people in the Philippines at all................................
Quoting 7. TimSoCal:



Humidity's been insufferable for about a week. Yes, humidity in California - it's so weird. Probably a sign of things to come.
sign of things to come hang on I'll sent one
nice update gentlemen good read for a Friday afternoon

thanks.
Quoting 3. hydrus:

Thank You..That is serious stuff in the video you posted.
yeah with great drought comes great floods
Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen,

CoCoRaHS only showed .03 for my area for the 15th, nothing up here today.
Quoting 8. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Messers Masters and Henson.

We were talking about our "local" fresh water sources this am from our bloggers around the US and the World (from snowpack to aquafers), but did not include flood related natural disasters in my poll from low pressure systems (including storms). Your Blog today illustrates how tenuous the issues of rain/precip are when related to need against what Mother Nature will provide, or not provide, in any given year.

You rarely get the "perfect" amount of year round precipitation for any region in the world; you can go from parching drought to needed rain but if the rain is too much (due to a low pressure system or tropical storm) at one time then you get flooding damage.

No good news for the people in the Philippines at all................................
Philippines are in for a bad one I believe, even though they are used to powerful typhoons, this typhoon may linger over the region.

Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.
Greetings WMW..Folks here where I am at in Middle TN get drinking water from the Barron Fork River. It has a small treatment plant that currently cleans 2 million gallons a day. It is very very old..One can tell if you see it up close.

Quoting 11. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yeah with great drought comes great floods
And no two days are the same....Changes occurring now will continue and be more frequent.
You can really see the duration of this event from the radar archive. Go to Oct. 15, 2015 click Go, change max frames to 240 and extra days to 1, then click on RadarComposites southwest.

http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/
AL 92 2015101618 BEST 0 165N 875W 20 1008 DB SPAWNINVEST al752015 to al922015
Quoting 18. GeoffreyWPB:






No Florida doom?
I'm no expert but the Carib/Gulf system is already starting to look like a tropical depression.
Quoting 21. slavicthunder:

I'm no expert but the Carib/Gulf system is already starting to look like a tropical depression.
If it stays over water for another 24 hrs. then maybe....
Quoting 21. slavicthunder:

I'm no expert but the Carib/Gulf system is already starting to look like a tropical depression.
It is forecast to remain over the Yucatan for a couple days, so I do not believe we will have a T.D. for a while, Cannot rule out some organization tho...It is an invest...92L I think.

Quoting 21. slavicthunder:

I'm no expert but the Carib/Gulf system is already starting to look like a tropical depression.


Not even close right now. Wait for it to get into the northern part of the BOC in a few days.
Hydrus at 13.
Your Local Water Source Poll.

I'm not in the USA of course but I just saw a Spanish method of collecting rain water which is very novel. I've never heard of it before.
In area where it doesn't rain much in the Canary Islands they put up vertical nets in the path of heavy mists and with troughs underneath, the mists condense on the nets and drip water into the troughs, from there its channelled into tanks.
They collect about twice as much water levels in tanks this way as they get from direct rainfall apparently they call it "horizontal rain."

Meanwhile in the Canary Islands today they have had 70 MPH wind storms with up to 3 inches of rain and the airports have been closed due to high winds, more tomorrow from a cut off cold area of northern air.

Some Antelope Valley numbers at the top.
In terms of the potential Gomex system, with all of the SW shear at the moment, it is typical for the convection to fan off to the N-NE well in advance of an actual closed-low downstream as the rather large area tries to consolidate over the next several days.

Regardless of the potential location of a closed low closer to Texas next week, all that energy and precip is going to continue to fan across the North Gulf and Florida as the whole mass inches Northward: if the actual low remains relatively dry around the core, you may get more rain in the Northern Gulf and Florida than in Texas down the road so long as the shear does not relax and keeps blowing off the convective tops.

Too early to know what will actually happen when all is said and done:






Quoting 25. PlazaRed:

Hydrus at 13.
Your Local Water Source Poll.

I'm not in the USA of course but I just saw a Spanish method of collecting rain water which is very novel. Ive bnever hard of it before.
In area where it doesn't rain much in the Canary Islands they put up vertical nets in the path of heavy mists and with troughs underneath, the mists condense on the nets and drip water into the troughs, from there its channelled into tanks.
They collect about twice as much water levels in tanks this way as they get from direct rainfall apparently they call it "horizontal rain."

Meanwhile in the Canary Islands today they have had 70 MPH wind storms with up to 3 inches of rain and the airports have been closed due to high winds, more tomorrow from a cut off cold area of northern air.
Hello Red..Nature does the same thing..Critters drinking the dew off of cactus in the desert and the like...:)
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM!!!


Its not DOOM unless it hits FL
Thanks for the feedback, folks. I see a burst of convection and right away I'm all "holy moley...tropical system!"

Fascinating weather event unfolding either way.
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM!!!


Keeps pushing back the time.
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM!!!




If the shear does not relax over this forecast low, you may end up with a bumpy wind/surge event in TX/LA (a subtropical system as suggested by Dr. Masters) and a huge amount of rain inland further east into AL/GA/FL. Especially if the timing of a cold air mass hits the tropical moisture flowing in...................Next week could be "floody" for parts of the Northern Gulf coast if the Upper Low drops in tons of drier cooler air into the boundy areas (baroclinic boom city).
What is that hitting Iceland?
Quoting 34. Gearsts:

Keeps pushing back the time.
inb4 nothing happens...
High/Low for Sunday and Monday: 62/43

*cue dancing baby*
There is a small, but interesting system near Madeira. It produced sustained convection today, mainly north of the center. But it appear that around 17 UTC, another low level center formed well north of the previous one, under the convection (this picture below is from 17 UTC, when Funchal/Madeira reoprted west wind, and the minimum pressure was observed one hour earlier).

Current satellite imagery: Link

The modells show that this low will make a loop west of the Iberian Peninsula, and move back over warmer water within 2 days, where become almost stacionary for a while. I think it is possible, that it could be a subtropical storm that time.

"Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc)."
Well lol, we have wells/aquafer in Northern Michigan. The area around here is very sandy so any moisture drains away pretty fast, it allows the Au Sable River down the road to not fluctuate to much and provides lots of cold clean water for the trout (and my well).
Nestl%uFFFD wanted to put a water bottling plant here and they turned them down a while ago.
We need the rain in NW Florida, I'll take it if we can get it to come this way!
Quoting 40. TroutMadness:

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).
Well lol, we have wells/aquafer in Northern Michigan. The area around here is very sandy so any moisture drains away pretty fast, it allows the Au Sable River down the road to not fluctuate to much and provides lots of cold clean water for the trout (and my well).
Nestl wanted to put a water bottling plant here and they turned them down a a while ago.


Nestle' was also deep sixed in North Florida within the last several years when they wanted to put a Plant in on a natural spring here in Florida; sounds like a National conspiracy. They take "free" local spring water, that is already about good to drink and that people can tap with wells and purify themselves, then sell it back them at $ 1.25 per small bottle; while employing a minimal local work force to keep an eye on the pumps and dials.....................

On the drinking water question:

I live on a Superfund site, so our treatment plants were closed. Our water now comes in from the county, and the sources are multiple wells, a reservoir that sits in what was once a quarry and a major river.

It is all treated.


Speaking of storms, watch for landslides to be the major event in the Phils for the weekend.

They can normally move people from the coastal impacts (with some sad and noteworthy exceptions of course) but once you get up in elevation, it's a crap shoot as to weather or not your hillside will give way. I've got a bunch of in-laws up in the highest elevation mountain areas on Luzon who go through this several times a year, and every time is different.
92L...

Quoting 44. GeoffreyWPB:

92L...


Just a little further east, and we may have had a T.D.
Quoting 42. weathermanwannabe:


Nestle' was also deep sixed in North Florida within the last several years when they wanted to put a Plant in on a natural spring here in Florida; sounds like a National conspiracy.  The take "free" local spring water, that is already about good to drink and that people can tap with wells and purify themselves, then sell it back them at $ 1.25 per small bottle; while empolying a minimal local work force to keep an eye on the pumps and dials.....................



The area heavily depends on Tourism Dollars, a lot of people come to fly fish and canoe/kayak on the Au Sable and Manistee river systems. They were worried about the amount of water that would be pumped out, for good reason. A guy I know who has a place south of here (where they did build) is waiting for his well to go dry and move. Already they are buying up people near him whose wells have gone dry.
Quoting 42. weathermanwannabe:



Nestle' was also deep sixed in North Florida within the last several years when they wanted to put a Plant in on a natural spring here in Florida; sounds like a National conspiracy. They take "free" local spring water, that is already about good to drink and that people can tap with wells and purify themselves, then sell it back them at $ 1.25 per small bottle; while employing a minimal local work force to keep an eye on the pumps and dials.....................




At least Nestle actually purifies the water they sell. Zephyrhills essentially bottles up tap water and sells it, and people actually buy it. Also, you can buy Nestle water in bulk at the big box stores for about $4.50 for 32 bottles.
92L RGB Loop

Have to head home but have to keep an eye on 92L downstream; here is the closeup on the current shear iin that region:



Pretty strong at the moment although the area looks impressive with all of the convective bands fanning out.
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and enjoy the dry weather along the Gulf Coast this weekend before the rains hit next week.
Since it's still a hot topic, I posted this towards the end of the last blog.

Most folks down here get it through a long straw...

"The Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority (FKAA) was created in 1937 by Special Legislation of the State of Florida. The FKAA is the sole provider of potable water for all of the residents of the Florida Keys and presently serves over 44,000 customers within Monroe County. Potable water is transported to the Keys through a 130 mile transmission pipeline with an additional 649 miles of distribution pipelines which deliver water to the customer's property."

"The freshwater Biscayne Aquifer is the primary groundwater supply source for the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority. Our wellfield is located within an environmentally protected pine rockland forest west of Florida City on the mainland. The location of the wellfield near Everglades National Park, along with restrictions enforced by state and local regulatory agencies, contribute to the unusually high quality of the raw water. The FKAA wellfield contains some of the highest quality groundwater in the country, meeting and exceeding all regulatory drinking water standards prior to treatment. Strong laws and regulations protect our wellfield from potential contaminating land uses. The J. Robert Dean Water Treatment Plant is staffed by state licensed personnel and it is home to one of our two nationally certified water testing laboratories."



Isolated locations have cisterns.

"In the event of emergency or pipeline disruption, the FKAA uses its storage facilities located throughout the Keys to keep customers in water. The current storage capacity of our system is 45 million gallons. Also, the FKAA has two seawater desalination plants, located on Stock Island and in Marathon. The desalination facilities produce freshwater from ocean saltwater and are an emergency source of 3 million gallons per day of potable water for the Lower and Middle Keys. Our desalinated water recently won a statewide drinking water contest, and represented the state of Florida in the national competition in Washington DC."

Link


Just finished a blog that included some on the LA rain & mud flows. One storm report had the heavy rain measured as a 1000-year rainfall event.

The video I used- Unbelievable no one died. Notice the woman at the end that opens the door again as if she forgot something, then lets it go as her car moves toward that mud/waterfall.

Flash Floods and Mudslides Sweep Through California, by: The Wall Street Journal


I draw water from a shallow well and collect rainwater. The city here takes it out of Lake Washington, which is part of the St Johns River. The drinking water I purchase comes from there too.
getting colder and winds increasing a bit

glad I put on a slow cooker of fresh homemade turkey soup

nice evening for it

new forecast calls for lows of 34 in city so 30 in the burbs tonight wet flurries after midnight

tomorrow night low of 27 in the city maybe 25 in the burbs with snow showers during the morning and again late afternoon tomorrow high may just break 40's

feeling like fall for sure now

Monday still cool with a rtn flow building from the south
from the gulf of Mexico
rising temps above normal by mid next week
with rains
NWS in Los Angeles confirms a 1 & 1,000 year flood hit northern Los Angeles County last night. Pretty remarkable and this is just the beginning with a Super El-Nino now in progress and steadily intensifying.

Quoting 52. Skyepony:

Just finished a blog that included some on the LA rain & mud flows. One storm report had the heavy rain measured as a 1000-year rainfall event.

The video I used- Unbelievable no one died. Notice the woman at the end that opens the door again as if she forgot something, then lets it go as her car moves toward that mud/waterfall.

Flash Floods and Mudslides Sweep Through California, by: The Wall Street Journal


I was just posting that. You read my mind Skye.
Here's the next 3 day's forecast for my area of NW Florida, Sunny, 76/48, 73/50, 73/54. Going to be a great weekend for the annual Mullet Festival in Niceville!


7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area. Looks to remain dry.
Good afternoon

It's a beautiful 89 today, with a few showers around, which is always a good thing for us!

Looking back on the blog, I saw Hydrus' question, "Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc)."

Here on St. Thomas, there are no fresh water sources except rain. Building codes here make it that houses cannot be built without at least one cistern. If the cistern runs dry, we have to order desalinated water. That's one bill I would hate to pay and have become quite adept at saving water (ie, watering my plants from the water collected from the air conditioner and not caring that I don't have a green lawn, just for starters). I have been called the "water witch" meaning that I do lay the law down for time in showers, number of loads in the washer...am sure you get my drift. Water is a precious commodity over here!

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Another 1000 year flood...Hopefully there are not many more ..
Quoting 61. hydrus:

Another 1000 year flood...Hopefully there are not many more ..
lol those 1000 year floods are happening too frequently.
looks like area north of LA got almost 6 months of yearly rainfall today:

Quoting 61. hydrus:

Another 1000 year flood...Hopefully there are not many more ..


They might get 6 more in the next 4 months.
CC Texas forecast.......................................... ...........................
Quoting 64. Bucsboltsfan:



They might get 6 more in the next 4 months.
Which would likely mean a lot of damage and possibly fatalities....Nino can drop huge rainfall amounts in California.
Quoting 25. PlazaRed:

Hydrus at 13.
Your Local Water Source Poll.

I'm not in the USA of course but I just saw a Spanish method of collecting rain water which is very novel. Ive bnever hard of it before.
In area where it doesn't rain much in the Canary Islands they put up vertical nets in the path of heavy mists and with troughs underneath, the mists condense on the nets and drip water into the troughs, from there its channelled into tanks.
They collect about twice as much water levels in tanks this way as they get from direct rainfall apparently they call it "horizontal rain."

Meanwhile in the Canary Islands today they have had 70 MPH wind storms with up to 3 inches of rain and the airports have been closed due to high winds, more tomorrow from a cut off cold area of northern air.

Redwood trees have been doing the same thing for thousands of years along the cooler parts of California's fogbelt, from Big Sur to Eureka.
Looks like the latest ECMWF has what looks like a tropical something making landfall along the Texas-Louisiana border by the 25th. It also brings what is currently 19-E closer to the West Coast, which at this time of year always holds the possibility of a front picking it up. It's also the time of year when fronts coming off Asia can pick up typhoons in their deep layer flow and send them in extratropical form streaking across the Pacific. The Phillipines is a typical locale for such pickups at this time of year.
Quoting 67. hydrus:

Which would likely mean a lot of damage and possibly fatalities....Nino can drop huge rainfall amounts in California.


Unfortunately. If this cranks up, the damage is inevitable..
Quoting 61. hydrus:

Another 1000 year flood...Hopefully there are not many more ..

If things with the El Nino go right or wrong depending on your point of view, then there might be a few 10,000 year floods on the west coast this winter.
Or this might just be another year nearer a 1000 year desert.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SWING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 1200Z
NAM12 THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AROUND THE TIME THAT
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOMORROW WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES RUNNING
FROM -1 TO -2 AND SURFACE BASED CAPE RANGING BETWEEN 400 AND 700
J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM ROUGHLY
HALF MOON BAY AND NORTH. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES DRY OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT SO SHOWERS SHOULD NOT STICK AROUND BEYOND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40 DROP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

Very muggy and mostly clear in the SF Bay Area today, so no great surprise that the atmosphere is primed for thunder when that front sweeps through. Lift should be enhanced also by the mild coastal SSTs as well as any lingering cold pool aloft from the persistent ULL. Looks like another shot of autumn rain by next weekend as well.
WalletHub.com

You wouldn't believe who is #1 on the list.

I'm disappointed in Tampa Bay being #83 on the list.
We need that rain across South Florida to move up here in Fort Myers, Florida

We've only had 1.25" of rain this month. Extremely dry first two weeks of October.
Quoting 74. PlazaRed:


If things with the El Nino go right or wrong depending on your point of view, then there might be a few 10,000 year floods on the west coast this winter.
Or this might just be another year nearer a 1000 year desert.
This winter will be stormy for the Eastern U.S...I believe Europe will be in on the cold as well..
Euro at 168 hours..

Quoting 78. hydrus:

This winter will be stormy for the Eastern U.S...I believe Europe will be in on the cold as well..


Did the snow piles finally melt in Boston from last Winter yet? haha
Quoting 72. Abacosurf:




Hey, Abaco, we're getting the outer bands!!!
Quoting 78. hydrus:

This winter will be stormy for the Eastern U.S...I believe Europe will be in on the cold as well..

My part of Europe stops at the 40th parallel, I think that as you say those above it will be cold, us below it will probably have endless storms but little cold.
The 5 star rating will probably be the pacific west coast with some real eye openers there.
We could do a speculation chart a bit like the one for storm tally's, pick a mid point like San Francisco and pitch in your projected rainfalls.
12z UKMET:

Quoting 25. PlazaRed:

Hydrus at 13.
Your Local Water Source Poll.

I'm not in the USA of course but I just saw a Spanish method of collecting rain water which is very novel. I've never heard of it before.
In area where it doesn't rain much in the Canary Islands they put up vertical nets in the path of heavy mists and with troughs underneath, the mists condense on the nets and drip water into the troughs, from there its channelled into tanks.
They collect about twice as much water levels in tanks this way as they get from direct rainfall apparently they call it "horizontal rain."

Meanwhile in the Canary Islands today they have had 70 MPH wind storms with up to 3 inches of rain and the airports have been closed due to high winds, more tomorrow from a cut off cold area of northern air.


Awesome Plaza, thanks!

The same thing, sea fog, allows our great redwoods to achieve their amazing height. I guess capillary has a point of diminishing returns.

Hydrus... a lot of citizens have home wells, from surface suction pumps, the surficial aquifer is quite shallow, so that suffices for home use. Martin County Utilities currently treats on average 9 million gallons of water a day from 35 surficial and 4 floridan wells. The Martin County water system is interconnected between the Tropical Farms and North County water plants. Water treated at these plants is a combination of lime softening and reverse osmosis.
A lot of gloom and doom today. I thought extreme events are actually down, e.g., ACE and US tornado frequency. SoCal hasn't had a real storm since the Los Angeles flood of 1938 and the Great Flood of 1862 was reportedly three times as severe as the 1938 storm.

“The gentle Santa Ana River became a raging torrent which washing, swirling and seething, swept everything from its path.” One writer says there were “billows fifty feet high”.

I saw the Santa Ana River in 1969 completely filling the 100 yard wide channel with entire large oak trees floating downstream. Hard to imagine a flow several times that.

Link
Quoting 62. Gearsts:

lol those 1000 year floods are happening too frequently.

I agree.
Great question, Hydrus, on the sources of drinking water. Houston is a combination of reservoirs collecting run off and shallow wells. Oh yeah. We also get water via the Dallas sewage treatment facilities and the Trinity River. Dallas Wastewater Keeps Trinity Flowing, Houston Drinking
Once called the “River of Death” because it was so polluted with sewage and waste from slaughterhouses, the Trinity River has defied the great drought and helped maintain one of Houston’s critical supplies of water. And much of the credit goes to what a century ago made the river so polluted: the wastewater from Dallas-Fort Worth.
That article dates to 2011.
The Trinity River Authority (TRA) said in a normal year, just one-eighth of the flow as it reaches Lake Livingston is Dallas-Fort Worth wastewater. But this summer, that wastewater accounted for one-half the flow.
And Houston draws about a third of its water from the Trinity.
Quoting 86. indianrivguy:



Awesome Plaza, thanks!

The same thing, sea fog, allows our great redwoods to achieve their amazing height. I guess capillary has a point of diminishing returns.

Hydrus... a lot of citizens have home wells, from surface suction pumps, the surficial aquifer is quite shallow, so that suffices for home use. Martin County Utilities currently treats on average 9 million gallons of water a day from 35 surficial and 4 floridan wells. The Martin County water system is interconnected between the Tropical Farms and North County water plants. Water treated at these plants is a combination of lime softening and reverse osmosis.
Water down there is loaded with lime..Reverse osmosis is a good way to go, and likely will be the only way in Florida someday with salt water intrusion going on.
Quoting 68. BayFog:


Redwood trees have been doing the same thing for thousands of years along the cooler parts of California's fogbelt, from Big Sur to Eureka.


well said, I did not see this until after I posted.. I have Climbing Redwood Giants, and they cover that.
Quoting 89. bappit:

Great question, Hydrus, on the sources of drinking water. Houston is a combination of reservoirs collecting run off and shallow wells. Oh yeah. We also get water via the Dallas sewage treatment facilities and the Trinity River. Dallas Wastewater Keeps Trinity Flowing, Houston Drinking
Once called the %u201CRiver of Death%u201D because it was so polluted with sewage and waste from slaughterhouses, the Trinity River has defied the great drought and helped maintain one of Houston%u2019s critical supplies of water. And much of the credit goes to what a century ago made the river so polluted: the wastewater from Dallas-Fort Worth.
That article dates to 2011.
The Trinity River Authority (TRA) said in a normal year, just one-eighth of the flow as it reaches Lake Livingston is Dallas-Fort Worth wastewater. But this summer, that wastewater accounted for one-half the flow.
And Houston draws about a third of its water from the Trinity.
Howdy Bappit...WeatherManWannabe started the thread on sources of drinking water. Sory I posted your name wrong....
Quoting 13. hydrus:

snip
Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.



I worked for the agency(MWRA) that provides water supply to the Metropolitan Boston area, the system consists of two major state owned upland supply reservoirs, state owned watersheds and a system of aqueducts and distribution pipelines to feed the individual cities and towns.






The Water System
Massachusetts water Resources Authority



Every day Eastern Massachusetts residents quench their thirsts, bathe, flush toilets, do the dishes and water their lawns with water drawn from the MWRA water system.

Thanks to the Quabbin and Wachusett Watersheds and Reservoirs, 2.2 million people and 5,500 industrial users have one of the most abundant and high quality water supplies in the world.

WATER SYSTEM MAP


Quoting 72. Abacosurf:



Lots of showers here in miami.
"Normally parched Death Valley was under a flash flood warning Friday morning for the second consecutive day. Death Valley’s Furnace Creek observation site received 0.70” of rain this month through Tuesday, according to weather.com’s Nick Wiltgen and Jon Erdman."

I camped in Anza Borrego State Park (NE of San Diego) last weekend. The desert was unusually green for this time of year due to a recent series of well timed storms. I missed the epic wild flower season in Death Valley from the near record rains in 2005 so I'm hoping for a repeat.

The next in line of 2 week out GFS PHANTOM Hurricanes?

Quoting 76. GTstormChaserCaleb:

WalletHub.com

You wouldn't believe who is #1 on the list.

I'm disappointed in Tampa Bay being #83 on the list.

Too Funny, Riverside, CA is 75th.
Like a freight train Typhoons Koppu and Champi

Quoting 98. PedleyCA:


Too Funny, Riverside, CA is 75th.


Somewhere between .07 and .20 Ped, pfffftttttt.....basically a dry run.
Quoting 61. hydrus:

Another 1000 year flood...Hopefully there are not many more ..


I think there will be many this Winter. Also tornadoes will eventually become a major story as well.
Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:

We need that rain across South Florida to move up here in Fort Myers, Florida

We've only had 1.25" of rain this month. Extremely dry first two weeks of October.


.06 so far this month @ my location
Quoting 100. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Somewhere between .07 and .20 Ped, pfffftttttt.....basically a dry run.

.22 for the whole month here, .03 from this storm....
Quoting 96. canyonboy:

"Normally parched Death Valley was under a flash flood warning Friday morning for the second consecutive day. Death Valley’s Furnace Creek observation site received 0.70” of rain this month through Tuesday, according to weather.com’s Nick Wiltgen and Jon Erdman."

I camped in Anza Borrego State Park (NE of San Diego) last weekend. The desert was unusually green for this time of year due to a recent series of well timed storms. I missed the epic wild flower season in Death Valley from the near record rains in 2005 so I'm hoping for a repeat.



I think this will be one of those years. I'd like to see it. What month was it when the flowers maxed out?
Quoting 84. PlazaRed:


My part of Europe stops at the 40th parallel, I think that as you say those above it will be cold, us below it will probably have endless storms but little cold.
The 5 star rating will probably be the pacific west coast with some real eye openers there.
We could do a speculation chart a bit like the one for storm tally's, pick a mid point like San Francisco and pitch in your projected rainfalls.

That's tough to call. The really big El Nino years were above 40 inches, or at least double the normal in SF. I'd guess, wildly of course, 50 inches at SF Intl Airport by June 30. But I would never put my money where my e-mouth is.
Quoting 90. hydrus:

Water down there is loaded with lime..Reverse osmosis is a good way to go, and likely will be the only way in Florida someday with salt water intrusion going on.


we average 1.3 billion gallons a day to tide in south florida.
For the Canadians among us or the merely curious, I have put up some links about the October 19, 2015 Canadian parliamentary election in comment #1510 of my blog.
And thanks to weatherwannabee for the great question on where our water comes from. (Thanks to Hydrus for keeping the question going from the previous blog!)

The reuse of water from Dallas by Houston is a feel good story (even if it makes you feel funny, like having baloney slices in your shoes). Here is a not so good story.

The groundwater wells sometimes produce radioactive water. The radioactivity is naturally occurring, and is strong enough to make the pipes and plumbing radioactive, too. (This can happen with piping used in oil/gas fields, too.)

Houston had to close a few wells because of it. The problem seems to be found variously across Texas link.
Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 7h7 hours ago
Typhoon #Koppu/#LandoPH will stall over Luzon, Philippines for days. Catastrophic floods, landslides likely.
Quoting 104. BayFog:


I think this will be one of those years. I'd like to see it. What month was it when the flowers maxed out?


A lot depends on the rains, several spread out rainfalls in Dec Jan Feb, not too hot temps, not to cold, too much rain wash seeds away or rots them, too dry=no germination but overall late Feb thru March will be best generally. I live about 20 miles as the crow flies NW of the Anza Borrego Park, safely on the west side of a mountain range to protect me from their hot summer temps. Google Anza Borrego State Park flower status, should get some current info.
Florida water consumption 1970-2010

Water consumption increase for Florida from 1985-2010 is 1.58%. That's not annually. That's it.
Huge mess.
When I first moved to this Charleston SC suburb 25 years ago, the water was notorious for being filled with salts and minerals and tasting really bad. It was taken from the aquifer under the town. Abundant and clean, but unappetizing. Everyone went out and got a bottled water contraption for their kitchens so the pasta wouldn't come out of the pot as a slippery blob. You could drink and cook with good water, but you just had to put up with feeling like the soap would never rinse off when you showered.

Then we got reverse osmosis!

Not only were we able to fill our cooking pots right from the taps, and not have to buy special shampoos and take lots of bottled water into the tub to rinse our hair, but our house went up in value overnight. They did a special mid cycle census on the town about 3 years later because we were growing so fast....
Quoting 13. hydrus:
....(snip)
Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.
....(snip)

We have a collection of very long straws to rivers and streams that partly depend on snow melt and some local wells.

Quoting 113. BaltimoreBrian:

Florida water consumption 1970-2010

Water consumption increase for Florida from 1985-2010 is 1.58%. That's not annually. That's it.
I bet indianrivguy can give us the straight poop on this.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON LANDO
5:00 AM PhST October 17 2015
====================
Typhoon "LANDO" has maintained its intensity and continues to increase its threat to Isabela-Aurora area

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lando [KOPPU] (963 hPa) located at 15.7N 124.7E or 335 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gustiness up to 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #3
Heavy damage to high–risk structures.
Moderate damage to medium- risk structures.
Light damage to low-risk structures.
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed.
Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing's). some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed.
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Aurora
2. Quirino
3. Isabela
4. Polillo Island

Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea ) 4.1-14.0m Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Northern Quezon
2. Nueva
3. Vizcaya
4. Nueva
5. Ecija
6. La Union
7. Benguet
8. Ifugao
9. Mt. Province
10. Ilocos Sur
11. Ilocos Norte
12. Abra
13. Apayao
14. Kalinga
15. Cagayan
16. Babuyan
17. Calayan group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Batanes
2. Pangasinan
3. Bulacan
4. Pampanga
5. Tarlac
6. Zambales
7. Bataan
8. Rizal
9. Batangas
10. Laguna
11. Southern Quezon
12. Cavite
13. Albay
14. Camarines Norte
15. Camarines Sur
16. Catanduanes
17. Metro Manila


Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao

Occasional rains and gusty winds will be experienced over provinces under PSWS #1 while those under PSWS #2 and #3 will have stormy weather.

Typhoon LANDO is expected to make landfall over Aurora-Isabela area between Saturday night and Sunday morning.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today.
This is a projection from the wind map for Monday the 19th.
Note the huge system over the gulf of Alaska and how the steady northerlies are flowing all the way down the US west coast.

Link

Meanwhile the north Atlantic looks very complex with the persistent system of the south west coast of Iberia. This system will have been more or less stationary for 3 days by Monday.

Link
For those of you thinking/hoping/wishing that the coming Super Duper Mega El Nino will put a certain end to California's profound water woes, experts --such as those at the USGS--are saying you'd best not get your hopes too high.

--Water Availability and Subsidence in California's Central Valley



"Extra pumping [of groundwater] has stressed the aquifer, which...has been depleted by about 1.85 km3 (cubic kilometers) per year on average since 1960".

That Central Valley groundwater storage change is illustrated by the red line in the graph. The green columns show how much surface water was delivered as precipitation each year. Note that in very wet years (during the 1998 El Nino, for instance), the red line does go up a bit. But the overall trend is clearly down, with each post-El Nino timeframe seeing overall storage shrink--and this will very likely continue to do so as long as an unsustainable amount of water is pumped out of the ground to meet demand. The article does state that the SGMA should help water authorities replenish the aquifer by a number of different methods. But as with pretty much anything else on this planet, so long as demand outstrips supply, the Golden State will continue hurtling toward catastrophe.

Quoting 114. Gearsts:

Huge mess.



That mess is dropping skme torrential rain on me now.
i just saw the yellow paint on the map on the nhc so will this develop more than a depression?as is, its raining cats and dogs here near Hialeah and the sky is overcast ed and so dreary as well. i just wish a good strong cold front will sweep the southern side of my state soon
Quoting 120. Neapolitan:

For those of you thinking/hoping/wishing that the coming Super Duper Mega El Nino will put a certain end to California's profound water woes, experts --such as those at the USGS--are saying you'd best not get your hopes too high.

--Water Availability and Subsidence in California's Central Valley



"Extra pumping [of groundwater] has stressed the aquifer, which...has been depleted by about 1.85 km3 (cubic kilometers) per year on average since 1960".

That Central Valley groundwater storage change is illustrated by the red line in the graph. The green columns show how much surface water was delivered as precipitation each year. Note that in very wet years (during the 1998 El Nino, for instance), the red line does go up a bit. But the overall trend is clearly down, with each post-El Nino timeframe seeing overall storage shrink--and this will very likely continue to do so as long as an unsustainable amount of water is pumped out of the ground to meet demand. The article does state that the SGMA should help water authorities replenish the aquifer by a number of different methods. But as with pretty much anything else on this planet, so long as demand outstrips supply, the Golden State will continue hurtling toward catastrophe.




I guess it's better that it didn't rain at all then.
Quoting 121. ElConando:



That mess is dropping skme torrential rain on me now.
I'll take some of that mess.
Quoting 117. bappit:

I bet indianrivguy can give us the straight poop on this.


Water use in Florida 2005, and trends 1950-2005

You have to scroll down to this chapter; Water Withdrawal Trends, 1950-2005

Now, a resource I use for south Florida is; Go Hydrology
Quoting 121. ElConando:



That mess is dropping skme torrential rain on me now.
are pressures falling in the area?
Quoting 126. knightwarrior41:

are pressures falling in the area?


I'm not near the core of the disturbance, so pressures appear to be normal.
Quoting 128. Patrap:


interesting thanks for posting this
Quoting 120. Neapolitan:

For those of you thinking/hoping/wishing that the coming Super Duper Mega El Nino will put a certain end to California's profound water woes, experts --such as those at the USGS--are saying you'd best not get your hopes too high.

--Water Availability and Subsidence in California's Central Valley



"Extra pumping [of groundwater] has stressed the aquifer, which...has been depleted by about 1.85 km3 (cubic kilometers) per year on average since 1960".

That Central Valley groundwater storage change is illustrated by the red line in the graph. The green columns show how much surface water was delivered as precipitation each year. Note that in very wet years (during the 1998 El Nino, for instance), the red line does go up a bit. But the overall trend is clearly down, with each post-El Nino timeframe seeing overall storage shrink--and this will very likely continue to do so as long as an unsustainable amount of water is pumped out of the ground to meet demand. The article does state that the SGMA should help water authorities replenish the aquifer by a number of different methods. But as with pretty much anything else on this planet, so long as demand outstrips supply, the Golden State will continue hurtling toward catastrophe.




I am just hoping that we can double up on our rainfall to help relieve the stress on non-farming use aquifers. Until some people get it through their thick skulls that using 1 gallon of water for 1 almond does not compute, it is a lost cause. When the aquifer does go dry, the farmers can use their land for renewable energy with wind and solar or until there is a big breakthrough on desalinization of seawater where it is ballpark in line with regular water prices.
Quoting 127. ElConando:



I'm not near the core of the disturbance, so pressures appear to be normal.
hmm okay time to head to the NHC website to see its floater over there and see the pressures
Quoting 131. Patrap:


looks like that front will sweep my state according to the miami disco:


000
FXUS62 KMFL 162017
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY WITH
GPS MET DATA SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2
INCHES AT OKEECHOBEE TO 2.2 INCHES AT MIAMI! WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH ACTIVITY SPARSER POINTS
NORTHWEST. SO FAR RAIN ACCUM HAS BEEN IN CHECK AND DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE THERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE DRIER AIR WINNING OUT WITH TIME HERE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HR WITH A SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. MOISTURE FURTHER DECREASES ON SUNDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND AN EAST COAST
TROUGH.

THIS HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY...REALLY TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND, AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE, WE UNDOUBTEDLY WILL BE DEALING WITH FAST MOVING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. HAVE HIGHEST POPS EAST COAST...TRENDING LOWER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SYNC IN SHOWING A
WIND SURGE MOVING DOWN THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SURF AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH A
TREACHEROUS SURF ZONE EXPECTED AS STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME
LIKELY. LATEST NWPS RUN SHOWS BREAKING WAVES OF 8 FT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST MONDAY...TRENDING LOWER POINTS SOUTH.
SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. WINDS LOOKS TO
SUBSIDE BY ABOUT 5 KT TUE-WED. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING...JUST A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL...SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE!
/GREGORIA
Patrap, I know your over in se, LA. Do you expect the gulf low to get up in our area?
it seems that NHC satellites products no longer lets you read the pressures in the area
The 2 closest reporting sites to my place for precip yesterday.

OAK GROVE RAWS 0.20 2770
PUERTA LA CRUZ 0.19 2970
138. vis0
Is there a pg./site that shows rain/snow amounts to there lack of (droughts) as to extremes for the Entire USofA in yearly segments in animation.
NOT RAIN TOTALS but anomaly ranges.
(too lazy to try  "webbering"** NOAA records)

Examples:

- Tx. this 2015 Calendar year would have an animation showing extremes several dry month, then moist 2 months with a deluge(s) centered in those 2 months for 2 weeks, then several dry months and maybe next another 1,000 yr or closer to 500yr flooding event??? (actually the first dry months of 2015 was also a 1,000 yr event, but since dry to many seems like nothing i happening its not look at like a 1000 yr "event".)

- SE (mainly Florida had a similar Calendar yr but during other months)

- NE too but at first (~Jan, Feb, Mar) with the NE snowpalooza, then a dry period though the dry was not any "y  in xxx or xxxx" amount of  yrs type of period/duration/amount.

(imagine .(hopefully its in the ocean not over lands, though hundred feet Tsunami not good) a 1 in 10,000 yr event...i think it might be sadly, quakes (my 11.0 - 12.0 i know not possible by  Richter standards - theory...but this nut posted in 2011-12 that El Nino comes ~2015/16 and a chance for 2 El Nino supremes within 4 yrs...calm down STS these are the words of a nut..vis0).

Back to Weather::
If its aGW it fits my theory as first "we" get crazy extremes as was mentioned in the last blog by a WxU member though i do not look at warming atmospheres as to automatically generate stronger TS/HURR  yr in yr out instead stronger, longer, more sudden  fetching/fetches of moisture flows as these warmer temps still are happening AT THE beginning of natures long term reaction.

At first 20-50 yrs ...30 yrs to go... we see pendulum extremes, in nature trying to balance the old normal temps vs. the new warming.
Once the warming TRULY settles in ...those aforementioned 30 yrs... then i expect those fetches of moisture to have an easier time of wrapping up (into warm core LOWs) and that includes more TS towards poleward latitudes.


Definition of WEBBERING (weh-bohr-ing)

1. The ability to collect and generate top notch multi-level information into graphs that would take most humans 3 lifetimes...in 24hrs.
139. vis0
Did pablosyn sign in yet??? i saw barbamz comment (report) on real serious weather in pablosyn's region 2 to 3 outflows went across that area.
Quoting 114. Gearsts:

Huge mess.



CenTex will take ALL of that mess. We're on fire again.
Somebody said, disco? It is Friday Night Fever you know. Let's get giggy with it. Grothar leads the floor and the rest of Wunderground follows.

142. IDTH
Quoting 141. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Somebody said, disco? It is Friday Night Fever you know. Let's get giggy with it. Grothar leads the floor and the rest of Wunderground follows.



I'll be the D.J
I-5 is still closed southbound and Hwy 58 is totally closed(for days) due to a mudslide. Did I mention that was the alternate route into Southern CA. The only way other than the coastal
roads is to take 155 to 178 to the 14, then if you want the I-5 go south on the 14. If you want to
end up on the I-15 go north on the 14/178 to 395 to I-15 and south into the Inland Empire. The
Rainy Season hasn't even started yet, OMG were DOOMED....
Quoting 109. bappit:

And thanks to weatherwannabee for the great question on where our water comes from. (Thanks to Hydrus for keeping the question going from the previous blog!)

The reuse of water from Dallas by Houston is a feel good story (even if it makes you feel funny, like having baloney slices in your shoes). Here is a not so good story.

The groundwater wells sometimes produce radioactive water. The radioactivity is naturally occurring, and is strong enough to make the pipes and plumbing radioactive, too. (This can happen with piping used in oil/gas fields, too.)

Houston had to close a few wells because of it. The problem seems to be found variously across Texas link.


To give credit where credit is due...
It started here on the last blog:


336. slavicthunder
4:19 PM GMT on October 16, 2015

Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.

Southern Alberta, Canada: snowmelt from the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, sandstone aquifers. Summer rainfall can be intense but is infrequent. Once in a while we get an epic flood (2005, 2013).
Quoting 143. PedleyCA:

I-5 is still closed southbound and Hwy 58 is totally closed(for days) due to a mudslide. Did I mention that was the alternate route into Southern CA. The only way other than the coastal
roads is to take 155 to 178 to the 14, then if you want the I-5 go south on the 14. If you want to
end up on the I-15 go north on the 14/178 to 395 to I-15 and south into the Inland Empire. The
Rainy Season hasn't even started yet, OMG were DOOMED....


It's gonna be INTERESTING!
Quoting 146. HurricaneHunterJoe:



It's gonna be INTERESTING!

Even so, we have yet to see any widespread rains. These were localized heavy showers. The real El Nino effect will be days on end of widespread moderate to heavy rain.
Quoting 143. PedleyCA:

I-5 is still closed southbound and Hwy 58 is totally closed(for days) due to a mudslide. Did I mention that was the alternate route into Southern CA. The only way other than the coastal
roads is to take 155 to 178 to the 14, then if you want the I-5 go south on the 14. If you want to
end up on the I-15 go north on the 14/178 to 395 to I-15 and south into the Inland Empire. The
Rainy Season hasn't even started yet, OMG were DOOMED....


But just think, you could take the 166 to the 33 to the 150 to the 126 to the 118 to the 34 to the............................................... .................................................. ....... :)
Quoting 147. BayFog:


Even so, we have yet to see any widespread rains. These were localized heavy showers. The real El Nino effect will be days on end of widespread moderate to heavy rain.


Like I said.....it is going to be INTERESTING!
Looks like 19-E might already be Tropical Storm Olaf.
Quoting 97. HurricaneHunterJoe:

The next in line of 2 week out GFS PHANTOM Hurricanes?



I think this is quite possible due to a strong MJO that is going to be in that vicinity in that time frame. So the extra energy could provide a lift for something to develop. Also SSTs are still very warm in that region. It is far out so take it with a grain of salt but I don't believe it is so far fetched
Quoting 141. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Somebody said, disco? It is Friday Night Fever you know. Let's get giggy with it. Grothar leads the floor and the rest of Wunderground follows.




I still have my dancing shoes from the 70's



Quoting 150. BayFog:

Looks like 19-E might already be Tropical Storm Olaf.



If it isn't, it will be very soon!
Low Spark Of High Heeled Boys

Back when Grothar and I were in the Netherlands, fighting communism still.







92L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 155. Patrap:

Low Spark Of High Heeled Boys

Back when Grothar and I were in the Netherlands, fighting communism still.










Is THAT what Low Spark is about, Communism? Wow, thanks for the new project, Pat.
158. vis0

Quoting 36. Camerooski:

What is that hitting Iceland?
my 2 crazy cents is at my zilly blog pg4 cmmnt#159.
160. ariot
Saw this on the twitter box:
========
The #ECMWF is predicting over 98 inches of rain over the next week at Baguio (RPUB) in the Philippines via @weatherbell @RyanMaue #Koppu
========
Now Baguio City is probably one of the better cities to visit. The views are exceptional and the weather is generally very nice.

During your run of the mill typhoons, you just stay indoors if you can and most of the schools and universities close up.

On the low end, they can handle the projected 36" of rain during 3 days with minor damage, I think.
On the high end, major failure of structures is likely.

I've been there, and in more remote areas during storms, but nothing anywhere close to anything this bad.
Quoting 39. Zivipotty:

There is a small, but interesting system near Madeira. It produced sustained convection today, mainly north of the center. But it appear that around 17 UTC, another low level center formed well north of the previous one, under the convection (this picture below is from 17 UTC, when Funchal/Madeira reoprted west wind, and the minimum pressure was observed one hour earlier).

Current satellite imagery: Link

The modells show that this low will make a loop west of the Iberian Peninsula, and move back over warmer water within 2 days, where become almost stacionary for a while. I think it is possible, that it could be a subtropical storm that time.



Very nice close-up, thank you!
Here is the latest of the current yin-yang dance of this little (sub-)tropical system, recognizable by its white center with the wet veil, with the larger dry and cold vortex (reddish) to its northwest. Will be interesting to watch what comes out of this marriage! (Germany, btw, is still under the reign of this stalled cold ULL - in yellow colors on the right side of the picture below, brrr).





Typhoon Lando maintains strength; 4 areas under Signal No. 3
PAGASA expects the typhoon to make landfall over the Isabela-Aurora between Saturday night and Sunday morning. Signal No. 2 is raised over 13 areas, and Signal No. 1 over 17 areas
Rappler.com, Published 7:41 AM, October 17, 2015, Updated 7:59 AM, October 17, 2015
MANILA, Philippines – Four areas are now under Public Storm Warning Signal No. 3 as Typhoon Lando maintained its strength on Saturday morning, October 17.
As of 4 am Saturday, state weather bureau PAGASA estimated the center of Lando at 335 km east of Baler, Aurora, with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 185 km/h.
It is still moving west in direction, now at 12 km/h, with heavy to intense rainfall estimated within the typhoon's 600-km diameter.
The typhoon continues to increase its threat to the Isabela-Aurora area where it is expected to make landfall between Saturday night and Sunday morning, October 18.
Aurora, Quirino, Isabela, and Polillo Island are all under Signal No. 3 (121-170 km/h expected in 18 hours). A storm surge of up to 2.0 meters is possible at coastal areas under this storm signal, as open sea wave height can go up to more than 14.0 meters.

Off topic with ElNino question. But I am curious if someone can set me straight.

I am trying to comprehend yet again how during an ElNino winter the North is above average temps and the South is below average temps. Doesnt the cold air come from the North? I think that the problem that I am having is the average and the extreme events that happen during this scenario.
The cahrts always show a more ? Zonal? flow that is strong West towards East with the Jets stronger on the boundary s.I can understand the cooler temps in the South with the added cloud cover and rain. But what I cant wrap my head around is I remember ElNinio years with some very bad freezes way down here. That would have to come from the North to get here. It must be when there is a kink or loop that the strong jets push that freezing weather all the way down here for the severe cold but the rest of the time it is a Warmer flow From the Pacific towards the East that gives the overall warmer Northern Temps?
Do I have this even close to correct?

EDIT: Down here is far SW Florida.
Dear Fellow Houstonians:

Re: invest 20

If the ECMWF is to be believed, we in Houston will be experiencing the first major October hurricane since the great October storm of 1949.

My advice: start getting ready now!
Guess this was a late and deadly greeting from former tropical cyclone 03A in the Arabian Sea:

Heavy rains kill at least 6 people in Oman
AFP/Muscat. At least six people, including four from a single family, have been killed in flash floods caused by heavy rains hitting Oman, the sultanate's police announced on Friday.
A mother and her three daughters died when their vehicle was swept away by flood water on Thursday, according to a police statement carried by the official ONA news agency.
The father survived and was hospitalised, it added.
A child meanwhile drowned in a valley and the body of an Asian man killed by the floods was also retrieved, police said.
Oman's meteorology department warned of thunderstorms across several parts of the Arabian Peninsula country on Friday, adding that rains are likely to continue for two more days. ...



Video of the storm in Oman from afar.
Quoting 165. pureet1948:

Dear Fellow Houstonians:

Re: invest 20

If the ECMWF is to be believed, we in Houston will be experiencing the first major October hurricane since the great October storm of 1949.

My advice: start getting ready now!


Lol...
Quoting 164. QueensWreath:

Off topic with ElNino question. But I am curious if someone can set me straight.

I am trying to comprehend yet again how during an ElNino winter the North is above average temps and the South is below average temps. Doesnt the cold air come from the North? I think that the problem that I am having is the average and the extreme events that happen during this scenario.
The cahrts always show a more ? Zonal? flow that is strong West towards East with the Jets stronger on the boundary s.I can understand the cooler temps in the South with the added cloud cover and rain. But what I cant wrap my head around is I remember ElNinio years with some very bad freezes way down here. That would have to come from the North to get here. It must be when there is a kink or loop that the strong jets push that freezing weather all the way down here for the severe cold but the rest of the time it is a Warmer flow From the Pacific towards the East that gives the overall warmer Northern Temps?
Do I have this even close to correct?

EDIT: Down here is far SW Florida.


The temperatures are relative and averaged when looking at the charts. Generally, you have it right, cooler temps in the south due to the increased rain/cloud cover brought on by the southern jet, warmer drier in the north as the polar jet generally stays further north. Those extreme cold events though are usually the results on the varying phases of the AO and NAO, which allows the polar air to spill further south. On average the cool wet south, and warm, dry north and west will happen, but this doesn't preclude strong arctic air mass outbreaks, just those outbreak's effects on the average winter temperature are moderated by abnormally warm and dry weather in the north and northwest. The key here is average. Hope this helps a little bit. This page from Live Science is also a help for my understanding. Link
Quoting 164. QueensWreath:

Off topic with ElNino question. But I am curious if someone can set me straight.

I am trying to comprehend yet again how during an ElNino winter the North is above average temps and the South is below average temps. Doesnt the cold air come from the North? I think that the problem that I am having is the average and the extreme events that happen during this scenario.
The cahrts always show a more ? Zonal? flow that is strong West towards East with the Jets stronger on the boundary s.I can understand the cooler temps in the South with the added cloud cover and rain. But what I cant wrap my head around is I remember ElNinio years with some very bad freezes way down here. That would have to come from the North to get here. It must be when there is a kink or loop that the strong jets push that freezing weather all the way down here for the severe cold but the rest of the time it is a Warmer flow From the Pacific towards the East that gives the overall warmer Northern Temps?
Do I have this even close to correct?

EDIT: Down here is far SW Florida.


In most cases temps are rather uniform across the US. Meaning it might be 40 for a high in Chi Town but be 60 for Orlando which would be much lower than the average 72. The main reason for this is a very strong southern jet that moves across the deep south bringing lots of rain and cooler temps as there just isn't much sun to be had when El-Nino gets this intense.



Quoting 167. Bucsboltsfan:



Lol...


Why do you say that? The Great October Texas Hurricane had blown up to Category 2 and had done a lot of damage. Invest 92 could produce an historical storm. I believe it will. What is the difference between then and now?
The situation setting up per the ECMWF is giving me vibes of Hermine in 2010. Going to be interesting to see how much of what'll be Patricia in the EPAC can make it into the GOMEX to meet up with 92L.
Quoting 150. BayFog:

Looks like 19-E might already be Tropical Storm Olaf.


EP, 19, 2015101700, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1270W, 35, 1004, TS
Quoting 155. Patrap:

Low Spark Of High Heeled Boys

Back when Grothar and I were in the Netherlands, fighting communism still.










Stevie Winwood and Traffic..............right?
Regarding water sources, our water in Sarasota County (SW Florida) comes from the Peace River, Manatee River, and the Floridan Aquifer. They blend the sources and treat 30 million gallons per day. Out of a dozen regional water districts, Sarasota County's water placed first this year in a taste test, for the second year in a row.

And yet, I still drink bottled water...
Quoting 171. CybrTeddy:

The situation setting up per the ECMWF is giving me vibes of Hermine in 2010. Going to be interesting to see how much of what'll be Patricia in the EPAC can make it into the GOMEX to meet up with 92L.



I think we in SE Texas will probably be facing a more lethal system than Hermine, CyberTeddy
Quoting 170. pureet1948:



Why do you say that? The Great October Texas Hurricane had blown up to Category 2 and had done a lot of damage. Invest 92 could produce an historical storm. I believe it will. What is the difference between then and now?
I think you're on to something. I pray for the people in New Orleans, and east to Biloxi. This will be the likely strike rea....and it dont look good.
Quoting 169. StormTrackerScott:



In most cases temps are rather uniform across the US. Meaning it might be 40 for a high in Chi Town but be 60 for Orlando which would be much lower than the average 72. The main reason for this is a very strong southern jet that moves across the deep south bringing lots of rain and cooler temps as there just isn't much sun to be had when El-Nino gets this intense.






Thanks StormTrack. But what causes the extreme freezing temps this far south?
179. vis0

Quoting 76. GTstormChaserCaleb:

WalletHub.com

You wouldn't believe who is #1 on the list.

I'm disappointed in Tampa Bay being #83 on the list.
am surprised ( i thought NYc would be 3rd) ...though from 2002-2004 planted nearly 400 bushes/trees (didn't get 1 cookie) but did have 2 trees break 2 wisdom tooth,  no one yelled timber and in one case i saw stars (i had 10-0 junior boxing record-Boys club, all KOs and never was hit so hard till that small tree brushed my noggin, spit out 2 tiny pieces of tooth)

 BTW the trees that hit me were being hand sawed down. i did 90% of the sawing then passed the hand saws to 2 young ladies on 2 different wkends. The tree were in bad condition and replaced by new trees)
Fool me once shame on me, fool me twice you better play the lotter-ee, fool me thrice not really i'm just nutty
sincerely,
NOT Muhammad Ali
Quoting 176. eyewallblues:

I think you're on to something. I pray for the people in New Orleans, and east to Biloxi. This will be the likely strike rea....and it dont look good.



No. Euro says strike area is Beaumont/Lake Charles area. This is an eye opener for me, as this is where Hurricane Rita made landfall back in 2005. Houston was affected by it.
Quoting 141. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Somebody said, disco? It is Friday Night Fever you know. Let's get giggy with it. Grothar leads the floor and the rest of Wunderground follows.



Disco was great until that movie came out. It was all downhill after that...IMHO.
Quoting 170. pureet1948:



Why do you say that? The Great October Texas Hurricane had blown up to Category 2 and had done a lot of damage. Invest 92 could produce an historical storm. I believe it will. What is the difference between then and now?
Because at this point it's possible the low could end up in the Pacific and never get to the BOC at all. Because if it does get to the BOC, it's possible the low could make landfall in Mexico and never get anywhere near Houston. Because the wind shear is still very high in the western Gulf and won't be getting less over the next five days. Because if it does get into the Gulf, we still don't have a clue where it could or how strong it will be.

You are getting way ahead of meteorology and into your fears, wishes, whatever. It's not helpful to people reading the blog who might think you know what you're talking about.
Quoting 183. unknowncomic:

RI?

EWRC?
Quoting 184. sar2401:

Because at this point it's possible the low could end up in the Pacific and never get to the BOC at all. Because if it does get to the BOC, it's possible the low could make landfall in Mexico and never get anywhere near Houston. Because the wind shear is still very high in the western Gulf and won't be getting less over the next five days. Because if it does get into the Gulf, we still don't have a clue where it could or how strong it will be.

You are getting way ahead of meteorology and into your fears, wishes, whatever. It's not helpful to people reading the blog who might think you know what you're talking about.


Hmm, the wind shear is still very high in the Western Gulf, you say? Tell me more.
Quoting 176. eyewallblues:

I think you're on to something. I pray for the people in New Orleans, and east to Biloxi. This will be the likely strike rea....and it dont look good.
We have no evidence of what will happen to the low, where it will go, or how strong it will be. New Orleans or Biloxi is no more at risk than Tampico Mexico right now.
188. vis0

Quoting 142. IDTH:


I'll be the D.J
you and Stu DJ-ing...Grothar?, me?, a few others...better also keep paramedics at hand.
Quoting 186. pureet1948:



Hmm, the wind shear is still very high in the Western Gulf, you say? Tell me more.
Quoting 152. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I still have my dancing shoes from the 70's




Lol
Quoting 173. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Stevie Winwood and Traffic..............right?
funny i was listening to "valerie" just a few seconds ago :)
Quoting 189. sar2401:


yeah nothing is going to develop there but western Caribbean is not that high so its still a possibility me thinks
193. vis0

Quoting 143. PedleyCA:

I-5 is still closed southbound and Hwy 58 is totally closed(for days) due to a mudslide. Did I mention that was the alternate route into Southern CA. The only way other than the coastal
roads is to take 155 to 178 to the 14, then if you want the I-5 go south on the 14. If you want to
end up on the I-15 go north on the 14/178 to 395 to I-15 and south into the Inland Empire. The
Rainy Season hasn't even started yet, OMG were DOOMED....
i have a feeling  short ferry trips might be in order for needed trips as non emergency ambulances, gov't workers, IF the seas are not too rough.
Quoting 192. knightwarrior41:

yeah nothing is going to develop there but western Caribbean is not that high so its still a possibility me thinks
20 to 60 knots is not so high? LOL.
Quoting 193. vis0:


i have a feeling short ferry trips might be in order for needed trips as non emergency ambulances, gov't workers, IF the seas are not too rough.

Interstate 5 is a long way from the ocean. The landslides that closed HIghway 58 are way out toward Palmdale in the Mojave Desert. Caltrans (or whatever it's called now) has lots of experience clearing slides. I-5 will be open in the day or so, at least for a single lane, and there are lots of alternate ways to get to the Antelope Valley.
Quoting 194. sar2401:

20 to 60 knots is not so high? LOL.


The models do not indicate this shear will die down by the time Invest 92L is within range of the Gulf Coast, right?
Champi on Himawari. Click pic for hi-def loop.
198. vis0

Quoting 152. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I still have my dancing shoes from the 70's




now all we need is for Patrap to observe a mothership** in the IR imagery...

George /Parliament-Funkadelic
Evening all. It's + rain, - power here tonight...

Here's some video of them trying to clear the highway and free some cars from the mud today.

Raw: Cars Buried in Mud After Calif. Flooding
By: Associated Press
.... back on line after only a few minutes ...

:-)

I notice the low formed on our side of the ithmus ...
Quoting 184. sar2401:

Because at this point it's possible the low could end up in the Pacific and never get to the BOC at all. Because if it does get to the BOC, it's possible the low could make landfall in Mexico and never get anywhere near Houston. Because the wind shear is still very high in the western Gulf and won't be getting less over the next five days. Because if it does get into the Gulf, we still don't have a clue where it could or how strong it will be.

You are getting way ahead of meteorology and into your fears, wishes, whatever. It's not helpful to people reading the blog who might think you know what you're talking about.


I love it when Sar gets his Sar on.
204. vis0

Quoting 195. sar2401:

Interstate 5 is a long way from the ocean. The landslides that closed HIghway 58 are way out toward Palmdale in the Mojave Desert. Caltrans (or whatever it's called now) has lots of experience clearing slides. I-5 will be open in the day or so, at least for a single lane, and there are lots of alternate ways to get to the Antelope Valley.
my feeling is IF the worst happens it might be something  say worse than satellite era El Ninos but not as bad as the 1862 flood.

Yet its a different world as you know, specially population wise and if many of the coastal roads go out at once one has to find another way to drive besides where everyone is going to go, which will be further inland.  So non-emergency yet urgent transportation needs (milk (perishables), ambulate, gov't workers, OTB fans, illegal aliens in those unmarked vans that do undesirable work that keep prices lower) have to get to places on-time and the biggest parking lot in the world "Cali's inland interstate park-n-ride-n-park" will be too slow (like you flying backwards over the Serra, surprise you didn't break the space-time continuum into the 5th dimension...there we go more musical references to drive the youngins crazy), what then as to getting around in CA.?
Please no canoeing down mountains ColoradoBob showed us a few yrs ago via news stories of stupid human tricks and  how that uses up & puts in danger Emergency workers/resources, not to mention its been done so to do that again is no longer rad but ridic. (ridiculous).

So sar2401 lets say all coastal roads out every few dozen miles how do people get around then? (national guard temp bridges??? cannot hold so many...
Quoting 107. BaltimoreBrian:

For the Canadians among us or the merely curious, I have put up some links about the October 19, 2015 Canadian parliamentary election in comment #1510 of my blog.


GO HARPER GO!!
206. txjac
Weather here in Houston has been pretty much the same every day. Nice and cool in the mornings, low humidity and 90's in the PM. So ready for some fall here

Keep, aren't you from Toronto? Are you watching the game?

I'm watching it ...it's kind of cool ...the relief pitcher Ryan Tepeda (52) is one of my son's best friends. I think that he is getting ready to go in ...been texting my son in Australia the details of the game. My son played ball with him. It's unbelievable to me that this major league baseball player used to help me finish my food when we were all out together.

Nope, they didnt put him in, they put in the leftie
Nice double play
Quoting 177. QueensWreath:



Thanks StormTrack. But what causes the extreme freezing temps this far south?

The freezes tend to be marginal at best here during an el nino winter, generally speaking. We often get a cooler and much wetter than average winter with higher than usual cloud cover, but may not have a true freeze the whole winter. Of course, that is historically speaking as most winters no longer bring a true freeze to the immediate Orlando metro area anyways. The city usually bottoms out between 32-34F on average nowadays. The true average for the metro area is around 30-31F, since the average takes into account the colder winters and years where it did freeze as well.

Btw, I LOVE Disco!
I'm rather dreading the news out of Luzon... having seen the recent impacts of a quasi stationary cat 4, I can only imagine the flooding..... :-/
Quoting 201. BahaHurican:

.... back on line after only a few minutes ...

:-)

I notice the low formed on our side of the ithmus ...


When you say isthmus, do you mean the Central American isthmus?
Quoting 160. ariot:

Saw this on the twitter box:
========
The #ECMWF is predicting over 98 inches of rain over the next week at Baguio (RPUB) in the Philippines via @weatherbell @RyanMaue #Koppu
========
Now Baguio City is probably one of the better cities to visit. The views are exceptional and the weather is generally very nice.

During your run of the mill typhoons, you just stay indoors if you can and most of the schools and universities close up.

On the low end, they can handle the projected 36" of rain during 3 days with minor damage, I think.
On the high end, major failure of structures is likely.

I've been there, and in more remote areas during storms, but nothing anywhere close to anything this bad.



I have an offshore contractor living there. She told me this morning that they are not concerned.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
12:00 PM FST October 17 2015
===========================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1002 hPa) located at 15.8S 174.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Convection remains persistent but detached to southeast of low level circulation center. System lies in moderate sheared environment and is moving to area of increasing shear. Outflow good to south due to diffluent upper ridge. System is steered towards southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap yields DT 2.0, MET and PAT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked the system and agree on its southwestward with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.8S 173.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 20.0S 171.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 22.7S 171.6E - 20 knots (Tropical Disturbance)
The 2015 Pacific Hurricane Season now tied with 1982 as the 3rd busiest season on record:






Pretty outflow, hot watter, really low wind shear, could become the 9th major hurricane.
Quoting 212. pablosyn:

The 2015 Pacific Hurricane Season now tied with 1982 as the 3rd busiest season on record:






Pretty outflow, hot watter, really low wind shear, could become the 9th major hurricane.


but where still 1 cat 5 and 3 storms be hide 2014 for the E PAC season this year has been a slower year for the E PAC then in 2014 and time is running out for any more name storms the next storm on the list is the P storm R storm S storm we need too get too the V storm too be tide with 2014 and too the W storm to get the most name storms in one season if it was not for TD 4E TD 8E TD 11E and TD 16E we would be at the V storm right now and not the O storm
Quoting 204. vis0:


my feeling is IF the worst happens it might be something  say worse than satellite era El Ninos but not as bad as the 1862 flood.

Yet its a different world as you know, specially population wise and if many of the coastal roads go out at once one has to find another way to drive besides where everyone is going to go, which will be further inland.  So non-emergency yet urgent transportation needs (milk (perishables), ambulate, gov't workers, OTB fans, illegal aliens in those unmarked vans that do undesirable work that keep prices lower) have to get to places on-time and the biggest parking lot in the world "Cali's inland interstate park-n-ride-n-park" will be too slow (like you flying backwards over the Serra, surprise you didn't break the space-time continuum into the 5th dimension...there we go more musical references to drive the youngins crazy), what then as to getting around in CA.?
Please no canoeing down mountains ColoradoBob showed us a few yrs ago via news stories of stupid human tricks and  how that uses up & puts in danger Emergency workers/resources, not to mention its been done so to do that again is no longer rad but ridic. (ridiculous).

So sar2401 lets say all coastal roads out every few dozen miles how do people get around then? (national guard temp bridges??? cannot hold so many...

Vis, there aren't coastal roads of any significance when it comes to California compared to inland routes. Highway One, the main coastal route, is closed almost every year for some period of time near Big Sur by landslides. Highway 101 is the closest thing to a main travel route on the coast, and it only touches to coast from Santa Barbara south. Highway 99 was the main north-south route until the construction of Interstate 5 in the 70's. The roadway of I-5 through the Valley was constructed high enough that it would still be useable in a major flood. I drove south from SF to LA during the 1982 floods, and the interstate was to only dry place surrounded by hundreds of square miles of water. People who live on the coast (and there aren't many north of Santa Barbara) are pretty self-sufficient, since almost every winter leads to road blockages and power outages.

The big issue in California road transport is there are two choke points. One is going over the Tejon Pass on I-5, that area closed now, and I-80 over the Sierra to Reno. In the case of I-80, there are no alternate routes. There are some alternate routes around Tejon Pass, but they really aren't practical for heavy traffic. Those are two reasons why Caltrans has gotten really good at clearing landslides and snow blockages. Believe me, even if the idea of ocean ferries was practical, Caltrans would have the freeways open before anyone in California government could even sign an agreement. :-)
Quoting 209. pureet1948:



When you say isthmus, do you mean the Central American isthmus?
Here's a map...

Quoting 196. pureet1948:



The models do not indicate this shear will die down by the time Invest 92L is within range of the Gulf Coast, right?
Correct. The parade of cold fronts will reinforce both the shear and dry air in the Gulf. Those are not good for tropical storms. The probability is that something will form in the BOC, either tropical or subtropical. Other than that, we still don't have any idea of how strong or where it will go, or when. Remember Joaquin?
217. vis0
THE FOLLOWING IS NOT OFFICIAL NOR WRITTEN IN STONE DO NOT USE IT FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN CONVERSATION OF WHAT COULD BE AND TO POINT AND LAFF AT....FOR NOW.

KEEP READING ALL OPINIONS HERE AND MOST IMPORTANT AT NOAA.

My take on the Campiche situation.

Flows will take the cloud mass in 2 directions some towards Jamaica's direction most towards ePac.
THEN comes in the influence that will deal the deck, MJO.
If MJO is almost as strong as El Nino FOR NEXT WEEK, MJO can cause a curved wall of protection by MJO energy forcing ENSO-e driven sheer to curve further northward NOT stop the sheer just push its curve closer to Texas on the formations WNW/NNW side allowing a bit more forward motion toward Mx/Tx border.

THEN comes in the stuff i talk of, the ml-d's influence. So most sane people go to the next comment.

If the LOW forms as a TS and is heading from near Mexico's eastern GoMx coastline towards the USofA in a NE (even a ~ENE) manner i'd be on the look out for RI (rapid Intensification).

Now RI from what to what as TS to cat1 or worse i'm treading in unknown to me science...physics... so that i cannot figure that out.

To me whats more certain (still not over 79% percent sure) is that from Mexico to Tex and states near by will have lots of suspended liquid to be squeezed out from the saturated atmosphere.

whats this::   its something i thought i posted 3 hrs ago heck forget to even press upload till 30 mins ago, it me observing discharge activities and trying to see Just 2 obs 1] sustainability in amount of discharges.  Not maximum but where nature is stays efficient as  of discharges past sun min-maxs and 2] unison to cloud motions to discharges, as in discharges that do not force apart clouds so in time they can swirl together and build up rotation. Only area i kind of saw is encircled in cyan. Its not the most action but stable.

Also looking at a swirl nicely staying together off to the east of this SAT imagery near Puerto Rico  here
a static image circled is that low level semi-closed flow how will it influence the larger 92L, one way is give 92L an easier path tpowards creating a low level flow IF this tiny flow gets under the (to quote Patrap)...mothership.
i think there is a good ch that Tropical Depression Sixteen-E gets upgraded a name storm has it did US$17.7 million in damge too MX when it made land fall so for it get retired they can give it the next name on the list wish would be what ever by the end of are E PAC hurricane season


am not sure how that would work hey guys what happens too a TD that dos so march damge too MX but never got upgrade too a name storm could they requst that the storm be upgrade so that way it can get retired TD 16E did $17 Million in damg in MX


Link
Quoting 203. slavicthunder:



I love it when Sar gets his Sar on.
LOL. Sorry. I really do get a bit peeved when we have a possible storm and people start wishing it their way or get into doom scenarios without a shred of meteorological evidence. There are hundreds of people who read this blog every day and never even sign up, so they never post. If and when 92L becomes a named storm, there are probably thousands, maybe even tens of thousands. Someone on the inside knows the numbers, I'm sure. It seems to me that people who do post have an obligation to at least not sow panic among those who don't. If I was in charge, and I'm sure most people are happy I'm not, you'd get one shot at that and then get banned until the storm is deactivated.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

Correct. The parade of cold fronts will reinforce both the shear and dry air in the Gulf. Those are not good for tropical storms. The probability is that something will form in the BOC, either tropical or subtropical. Other than that, we still don't have any idea of how strong or where it will go, or when. Remember Joaquin?


Hoo-boy! Wish you hadn't mentioned Joaquin. I saw what that storm did in the Bahamas. You've got me wondering if Galveston and Houston will see that kind of damage.
Quoting 215. sar2401:

Here's a map...




Oh, so Invest 92L has made landfall in Belize, eh? Interesting
lol For a little break - It's snowing at my house east of Grayling, Michigan with a temp of 31F
Lots of beneficial rain here in Dade. Hopefully this rainy pattern gets rid of all the drought conditions in the everglades.
Quoting 219. sar2401:

LOL. Sorry. I really do get a bit peeved when we have a possible storm and people start wishing it their way or get into doom scenarios without a shred of meteorological evidence. There are hundreds of people who read this blog every day and never even sign up, so they never post. If and when 92L becomes a named storm, there are probably thousands, maybe even tens of thousands. Someone on the inside knows the numbers, I'm sure. It seems to me that people who do post have an obligation to at least not sow panic among those who don't. If I was in charge, and I'm sure most people are happy I'm not, you'd get one shot at that and then get banned until the storm is deactivated.
If that really peeves you, you should get out more.
Quoting 224. ElConando:

Lots of beneficial rain here in Dade. Hopefully this rainy pattern gets rid of all the drought conditions in the everglades.


Actually, the drought is mostly gone after most of south and southeast Florida had severe to extreme drought, so there has already been major improvements, and the wet pattern now will only help.


Quoting 226. gatorman98:

If that really peeves you, you should get out more.
Those two things are related how?
Quoting 222. TroutMadness:

lol For a little break - It's snowing at my house east of Grayling, Michigan with a temp of 31F
I knew there was a reason I left Cleveland. :-)
Quoting 221. pureet1948:



Oh, so Invest 92L has made landfall in Belize, eh? Interesting
It formed over Belize. It hasn't made landfall anywhere yet.
Quoting 220. pureet1948:



Hoo-boy! Wish you hadn't mentioned Joaquin. I saw what that storm did in the Bahamas. You've got me wondering if Galveston and Houston will see that kind of damage.
Good heavens....
Quoting 231. sar2401:

Good heavens....



Good heavens?
The combination of the Monsoonal Gyre (92-L) in the SW Caribbean and High Pressure over the SE Conus will make it fun out here in the oil patch this weekend. I see lots of stand by time in my future. College football on the XM radio.
Quoting 218. Tazmanian:

i think there is a good ch that Tropical Depression Sixteen-E gets upgraded a name storm has it did US$17.7 million in damge too MX when it made land fall so for it get retired they can give it the next name on the list wish would be what ever by the end of are E PAC hurricane season


am not sure how that would work hey guys what happens too a TD that dos so march damge too MX but never got upgrade too a name storm could they requst that the storm be upgrade so that way it can get retired TD 16E did $17 Million in damg in MX


Link

Mexico won't request retirement for a tropical depression that caused $17.7 million. There have been storms far more costly and deadly that weren't requested for retirement (*cough* Emily 05, Alex/Karl 10 *cough*).
Quoting 234. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Mexico won't request retirement for a tropical depression that caused $17.7 million. There have been storms far more costly and deadly that weren't requested for retirement (*cough* Emily 05, Alex/Karl 10 *cough*).


i get you a cough drop
And we now have Olaf.
237. vis0
Gett'n WIGgy wid it::(AniGUF)

(Clic2HostPg ThereClickFor 1216x816)
Quoting 236. BayFog:

And we now have Olaf.



see post 212 your a few hrs late with your post
This is the biggest soap opera ever. I recently returned from Saipan for typhoon recovery. I was on standby for WA wild land fires but due to a state that spends more on liberal causes couldn't cover the basic responsibility (FEMA only covers Real property and temp housing) didn't get declared. States are required to cover personal property.
241. vis0

Quoting 226. gatorman98:

If that really peeves you, you should get out more.
What if sar2401 is outside on a tablet typing away,  then he should get in more :- P

in my case i cannot get out till the 2 nice men dressed in white escort me for some fresh air and light, at 6AM ...fresh air is the fridge opening where my allocated bag of breakfast awaits and light is the fridge bulb.


i should get ON less


Quoting 116. LowerCal:


We have a collection of very long straws to rivers and streams that partly depend on snow melt and some local wells.

We steal ours from No. Cal. 😀
Quoting 243. HiDesertRat:




Cali has over built it's infrastructure, Lake Tahoe has evidence of dryer times.


one can hope...
The water for Salem, Oregon (and 9 other communities) comes from the North Santiam River about 25 miles east of town. That's about where the Cascade Mountain foothills turn in to the Willamette Valley. The North Santiam is fed by snow melt off the Cascades and springs. During the winter when water use is low and the river is high they pump water into a large aquifer in the South Hills of Salem that they use to supplement the water supply in the summer when the river gets low.

The same is true of most Western Oregon cities. Portland gets its water from the Bull Run watershed on the west side of Mount Hood supplemented by a well field near the Columbia River when that gets low. Eugene gets its water from the McKenzie River, again flowing out of the Cascades.
pressure is forecast to drop down towards 915 hPa in 12 hours.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON KOPPU (1524)
15:00 PM JST October 17 2015
==============================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Koppu (930 hPa) located at 15.8N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 16.2N 121.7E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 17.0N 121.5E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
72 HRS: 17.7N 121.5E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON CHAMPI (1525)
15:00 PM JST October 17 2015
==============================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Champi (960 hPa) located at 17.2N 141.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 19.9N 140.1E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 22.0N 141.3E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) south of Iwo To
72 HRS: 24.0N 142.3E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Ogasawara waters
Good morning. Koppu finally consolidated its eye - very catastrophic!



Quoting 205. slavicthunder:



GO HARPER GO!!
Yes. Go, Harper. Go as far away as you can. Please.
As an entertaining side glance: saved loops of the latest development of the dance of the warm-cored and the cold-cored lows off the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Look at the loop-the-loop in the next hours, lol:


(Click the loop to enlarge it). Source for updates.


Loop-the-loop: "T" (from German "Tief") means "Low".



Weather alert at the coasts of Portugal and southwestern Spain. Hope everybody is safe!

Koppu/Lando. Philippine Loop

Philippines warns Typhoon Koppu (Lando) could linger for days
AFP, Saturday, Oct 17, 2015





Wave hights:
Twitter feed from James Reynolds who is covering the landfall of Koppu/Lando, currently in Maddela.

Here the latest video clips from him on Periskope.
92L Located Over Belize

The center of the broad low pressure is moving WNW.

There is a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico.

However, the disturbance still has a chance of developing because it will possibly move into the Bay of Campeche, where the conditions are a little less hostile..

It will be interesting to see where the system goes after entering the BOC.

Will it continue WNW, move more northerly, or continue more westward, into Mexico?

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season continues ......





ASCAT from in the night.
Yesterday's 12Z GEOS-5 run had 92L developing in the East Pacific and staying there. 12Z ECMWF had moved a little west to the TX/LA line where the previous 00Z GEOS-5 landed.

Today GEOS-5 has kept the storm in the EPAC, rakes the landslide risk area on the south edge of Central America and up into Mexico.


Today's 00Z ECMWF is much more west crossing the storm from the East Pacific, then up the west coast of Mexico and Texas.
James Reynolds Retweetet
Atom Araullo ‏@atomaraullo 30 Min.Vor 30 Minuten
Eyewall of #LandoPH just visible from the Baler doppler radar. Sustained winds now comparable to TY Pablo in 2012.

Holding on for Lando......my husbands family is there in Manila, appreciate all the updates, this one looks nasty.
Good morning all. Rather gloomy due to overcast skies. This is quite unusual, as most periods of prolonged cloudiness at this time of year are associated with a TC. Occasionally in NDJ period we have a FROPA that keeps things cloudy for several days .... we got quite a bit of rain overnight as well ...
Scary, Koppu put on a show last night. Making a legit run for Cat 5 status as it approaches landfall, but will probably run out of time to get that strong with its eye still a little too cool. Raw T# up to a 7.0 though. JTWC definitely too low with their 115kt current intensity. Plenty of lead time for the places being impacted, so hopefully all precautions were taken.



Quoting 259. mfcmom:

Holding on for Lando......my husbands family is there in Manila, appreciate all the updates, this one looks nasty.

Best wishes for your relatives and all the other folks in the Philippines!


LOOK: Areas at risk of experiencing over 100 mm of rain. Source: ABS-CBNnews.com with more Lando/Koppu news

NASA finds powerful storms inside Typhoon 'Lando'
ABS-CBNnews.com
Posted at 10/17/2015 11:22 AM | Updated as of 10/17/2015 11:25 AM
Long term (sunday night through friday)...upper level pattern
remains largely unchanged from previous runs through next week with
high pressure building early in the week. The ridge breaks down middle
week as a disturbances pushes out of central Mexico and a deep low
pressure trough digs into the southwest US. Late week have the
combination of energy from the upper level disturbance and trough
lifting out to produce plenty of upper level forcing to sustain a
potentially significant rainfall event across the forecast area.
Precipitable waters begin low early in the week...but increase to around 2 inches
by Wed/thur...and to possibly record levels...around 2.5 inches by
late week. Surface details through this period are anything but
clear. Continue to see significant deviations between models...and
continues run to run changes. Latest GFS run brings surface low
pressure center northward along the Western Shores of the Gulf of
Mexico through late Friday...then essentially reverses course and
tracks it back southeast through the western Gulf. The European model (ecmwf) has
come more in line with earlier GFS runs...keeping the low along the
Gulf Coast...instead of through a more northeast track as it had
been doing. Not enough consistency anywhere to pick a side in this
JTWC's track shows Koppu pretty much stuck over Luzon for two days straight, not good. However, just checking the morning model runs, even that could be wishful thinking. Most of the models show little motion for even longer- the 6z GFS was probably the worst of them, showing the decaying storm sitting on or over the area for about 5 days. Rainfall amounts will be epic, particularly considering topographical enhancement.



Quoting 255. Stormwatch247:

92L Located Over Belize

The center of the broad low pressure is moving WNW.

There is a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico.

However, the disturbance still has a chance of developing because it will possibly move into the Bay of Campeche, where the conditions are a little less hostile..

It will be interesting to see where the system goes after entering the BOC.

Will it continue WNW, move more northerly, or continue more westward, into Mexico?

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season continues ......









It will probably go into Mexico or maybe South Texas near the Mexican border that's my guess!

Eric
Quoting 255. Stormwatch247:

92L Located Over Belize

The center of the broad low pressure is moving WNW.

There is a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico.

However, the disturbance still has a chance of developing because it will possibly move into the Bay of Campeche, where the conditions are a little less hostile..

It will be interesting to see where the system goes after entering the BOC.

Will it continue WNW, move more northerly, or continue more westward, into Mexico?

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season continues ......









It will probably go into Mexico or maybe South Texas near the Mexican border that's my guess!

Eric
Quoting 265. MAweatherboy1:

JTWC's track shows Koppu pretty much stuck over Luzon for two days straight, not good. However, just checking the morning model runs, even that could be wishful thinking. Most of the models show little motion for even longer- the 6z GFS was probably the worst of them, showing the decaying storm sitting on or over the area for about 5 days. Rainfall amounts will be epic, particularly considering topographical enhancement.







Man this is not a good scenerio! I pray for those people as I am from South Carolina and I remember everything that happened on the other side of the state!! This deal here looks way worse if it sits over there that long!!

Eric
268. ariot
Quoting 210. Sangria:



I have an offshore contractor living there. She told me this morning that they are not concerned.


Yeah, that's the problem, some hear the Signal number on the radio and think it's just another typhoon that results in some rain and wind and a day off from school. This attitude is most commonly displayed by transplants to the higher elevations of the Cordilleras, but it is also present in some locals.

We're online with several family members off and on, and they all understand they are set for a few 24 hour periods with 10-15 inches of rain possible during each.

This probably means the city storm-water run-off system(s) will be overwhelmed and the rural areas will see landslides (somewhat common).

The mountain people know and understand, from tribal lore down to modern weather, that the geography presents serious risk during these events. They have seen entire communities slide down the mountain.

Close-up of the little vortex (994mb) with its - yes! - eye off the coast of Portugal.


At roughly the same time picture from Terra satellite.
I wonder if the center relocated last night. Almost looks like a center offshore...i dunno...


As of 7AM CST in Consejo Belize we have a storm total rainfall of 5.5 inches, with 4.25 inches coming since midnight. Perfect setup for us, lots of rain, not too much wind. Prior to this storm our annual rainfall to date was only 35% of normal. 
added the 12 hour statement forecast from the JMA since it'll be close to land and possibly a super typhoon.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON KOPPU (1524)
21:00 PM JST October 17 2015
==============================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Koppu (930 hPa) located at 15.9N 123.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS: 16.1N 122.2E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) In Sea East Of The Philippines
24 HRS: 16.6N 121.6E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 17.3N 121.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
72 HRS: 18.0N 121.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #4
Very heavy damage to high-risk structures
Heavy damage to medium-risk structures.
Moderate damage to low-risk structures.
Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows.
A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged.
All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation.
Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.

Luzon Region
============
1. Aurora

Signal Warning #3
Heavy damage to high–risk structures.
Moderate damage to medium- risk structures.
Light damage to low-risk structures.
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed.
Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing's). some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed.
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Isabela
2. Quirino
3. Nueva Vizcaya
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Ifugao
6. Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea ) 4.1-14.0m Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan group of Islands
2. Benguet
3. Mt. Province
4. Abra
5. Kalinga
6. Apayao
7. Ilocos Norte
8. Ilocos Sur
9. La Union
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales
12. Tarlac
13. Pampanga
14. Bulacan
15. Rizal
16. Rest of Quezon
17. Camarines Norte
18. Metro Manila

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Batanes
2. Bataan
3. Cavite
4. Laguna
5. Batangas
6. Lubang Island
7. northern Oriental Mindoro
8. Marinduque
9. Camarines Sur
10. Albay
11. Catanduanes

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

Occasional rains and gusty winds will be experienced over provinces under PSWS #1 while those under PSWS #2, #3 and #4 will have stormy weather.

Typhoon Lando is expected to make a landfall over Aurora area by Sunday morning.

Storm surge may reach to a maximum of 3 meters in Aurora and neighboring provinces.

Wave height in open sea may reach up to 14 meters or higher.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Max Rainfall (IN) 196.105 ?


For all the tropical lovers out there I think this "storm" potential is prob going for Mexico may stay over land and never develop. Bring on winter
279. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
Sat. Imagery:: vFog, active Discharges - Thn. Strms
AOI:: SW Caribbean, Gulf of Campeche, ePac side of isthmus (areas circled in Frame1)
Activities in SW Caribbean and ePac

WxNOTE:: At frame 5 you see (within where i had my most northern circle) that ying yang look (some here on WxU call it that) where 2 cloud masses form as if split down the middle. The westerly side i call the break pad the easterly half the accelerator (launch) pad. Dependent on the present wxtrend, in this case as the eastern side puts the pedal to the metal  mezzoscale things tend to billow upwards like a Coal burning locomotive trains stack. If conditions around the centralized activity/action are favourable the formation of a closed warm core LOW can follow, if conditions are unfavourable for developement it'll die down they try again depending on which has the momentum, favourable or unfavourable conditions.

myNote:: Frames stops at sunrise as most will go to visible views.
Not at CINCOPA as i reach my monthly limit for free accounts with JOAQUIN.

Whats a Coal burning locomotive?, younging ask.
Ask sar2401 or Grothar they'll explain it by telling you how it was to ride on one.
17.6 N - 88.9 W...right on the coast....NW at 5 mph...


Incredible amounts even for the Philippines

More FL DOOOOMMMM
Quoting 269. SFLWeatherman:



looks like a Cat 5 headed for S FL... lol :)
Quoting 282. Grothar:

Incredible amounts even for the Philippines





As per the climo models.....all events take place in a warmer, more WV laden atmosphere.

2015, the year the climate strikes back.

Vis, Steamtown USA in Scranton, PA...awesome place to see and ride on steam powered locs.

SC weather, another beautiful day, but there is still water ponded in drainage ditches and fields from our epic deluge.

FEMA, monitors and the recovery crews are heavy in Columbia and Sumter. I won't be joining them this time to make extra $. Unfortunately in the middle of a project, because I love to be outside especially with the beautiful stretch of weather we have had since the floods.

Link


Quoting 279. vis0:

CREDIT:: NOAA
Sat. Imagery:: vFog, active Discharges - Thn. Strms
AOI:: SW Caribbean, Gulf of Campeche, ePac side of isthmus (areas circled in Frame1)
Activities in SW Caribbean and ePac

WxNOTE:: At frame 5 you see (within where i had my most northern circle) that ying yang look (some here on WxU call it that) where 2 cloud masses form as if split down the middle. The westerly side i call the break pad the easterly half the accelerator (launch) pad. Dependent on the present wxtrend, in this case as the eastern side puts the pedal to the metal mezzoscale things tend to billow upwards like a Coal burning locomotive trains stack. If conditions around the centralized activity/action are favourable the formation of a closed warm core LOW can follow, if conditions are unfavourable for developement it'll die down they try again depending on which has the momentum, favourable or unfavourable conditions.

myNote:: Frames stops at sunrise as most will go to visible views.
Not at CINCOPA as i reach my monthly limit for free accounts with JOAQUIN.

Whats a Coal burning locomotive?, younging ask.
Ask sar2401 or Grothar they'll explain it by telling you how it was to ride on one.

Fall colors showing up nicely on satellite..Parts of the U.P. and Superior shown...From CIMSS

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/15/us/noaa-winter-foreca st/index.html



Quoting 281. Patrap:


Its not supposed to be over water till 200 hrs out.....
Quoting 280. hydrus:

17.6 N - 88.9 W...right on the coast....NW at 5 mph...



Almost looks like its moving due North.... "weird." I have seen "weirder", very "weird" Hurricane Season.
I don't do Flor-idiocy, so please, refrain from quoting my post with it.


"Thank's bro'
Quoting 284. Patrap:


Good thing the models have it pinned down....:)
Quoting 292. Camerooski:

Almost looks like its moving due North.... "weird." I have seen "weirder", very "weird" Hurricane Season.
Tropical cyclones are weird.
Quoting 284. Patrap:




Tracks have that nice "squished spider' look.
NBC said Koppu could drop 6 feet of rain.. Nearing landfall now.


Quoting 298. belizeit:



The system has barely moved from last night .

Lando/Koppu radar. Source.
.
WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 019
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 24W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

Source.
Quoting 279. vis0:

CREDIT:: NOAA
Sat. Imagery:: vFog, active Discharges - Thn. Strms
AOI:: SW Caribbean, Gulf of Campeche, ePac side of isthmus (areas circled in Frame1)
Activities in SW Caribbean and ePac

WxNOTE:: At frame 5 you see (within where i had my most northern circle) that ying yang look (some here on WxU call it that) where 2 cloud masses form as if split down the middle. The westerly side i call the break pad the easterly half the accelerator (launch) pad. Dependent on the present wxtrend, in this case as the eastern side puts the pedal to the metal  mezzoscale things tend to billow upwards like a Coal burning locomotive trains stack. If conditions around the centralized activity/action are favourable the formation of a closed warm core LOW can follow, if conditions are unfavourable for developement it'll die down they try again depending on which has the momentum, favourable or unfavourable conditions.

myNote:: Frames stops at sunrise as most will go to visible views.
Not at CINCOPA as i reach my monthly limit for free accounts with JOAQUIN.

Whats a Coal burning locomotive?, younging ask.
Ask sar2401 or Grothar they'll explain it by telling you how it was to ride on one.

I've been on a few trains pulled by such engines ... It's a ... different... experience...
Quoting 303. barbamz:

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 019
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 24W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

Source.




Also adjusted max forecast to 140 knots just prior to landfall and then again more re-organization once north of the Philippines. Don't know how much accuracy is with days 4 and 5 there, especially if this is all dependent upon it's interaction with the terrain


Clear blue sky, and unstable :)
Quoting 308. CaribBoy:



Clear blue sky, and unstable :)
Still some clouds here, but the sun is out... :-)
Quoting 305. hydrus:



Hydrus do love him some troughs
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TYPHOON LANDO
11:00 PM PhST October 17 2015
====================
Typhoon “LANDO” has further intensified as it continues threatens the provinces of Aurora, Isabela and Northern Quezon

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Lando [KOPPU] (943 hPa) located at 16.0N 122.9E or 90 km east southeast of Casiguran Auora has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gustiness up to 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #4
Very heavy damage to high-risk structures
Heavy damage to medium-risk structures.
Moderate damage to low-risk structures.
Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows.
A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged.
All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation.
Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.

Luzon Region
============
1. Aurora
2. Southern Isabela

Signal Warning #3
Heavy damage to high–risk structures.
Moderate damage to medium- risk structures.
Light damage to low-risk structures.
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed.
Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing's). some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed.
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Rest of Isabela
2. Quirino
3. Nueva Vizcaya
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Ifugao
6. Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea ) 4.1-14.0m Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan group of Islands
2. Benguet
3. Mt. Province
4. Abra
5. Kalinga
6. Apayao
7. locos Norte
8. Ilocos Sur
9. La Union
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales
12. Tarlac
13. Pampanga
14. Bulacan
15. Rizal
16. rest of Quezon
17. Camarines Norte
18. Metro Manila

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Batanes
2. Bataan
3. Cavite
4. Laguna
5. Batangas
6. Lubang Island
7. Northern Oriental Mindoro
8. Marinduque
9. Camarines Sur
10. Albay
11. Catanduanes


Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

Occasional rains and gusty winds will be experienced over provinces under PSWS #1 while those under PSWS #2, #3 and #4 will have stormy weather. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PSWS are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Typhoon Lando is expected to make a landfall over northern Aurora area by tomorrow early morning.

Storm surge may reach to a maximum of 3 meters in Aurora and neighboring provinces.

Wave height in open sea may reach up to 14 meters or higher.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Quoting 310. ACSeattle:


Hydrus do love him some troughs
34 degrees last night, 31 tonight..32 tomorrow night....day are fantastic with low 60,s and a fresh breeze...:)
Condensate in mm. Just about as high as you can get.



IN 24 hours (Not moving much)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 315. Grothar:

Condensate in mm. Just about as high as you can get.



IN 24 hours (Not moving much)




Those are the same images, Gro.
Still I wunder,

who'll stop the rain



The Storm Surge North of the Eye will now be tearing inland.


Thats a long coastal stretch of N to South beach.

I hope they evacuated..
321. vis0

Quoting 318. Patrap:

Still I wunder,

who'll stop the rain




This group The Ancients said/sung  "i can't stop the rain".
Though its on a different subject (luv) i only included lyrics that seem to point to nature in control.


https://youtu.be/MHYiT9J7F70 
♪ The Ancients i can't stop the rain (i think that's the artist, not sure, its from early 1990s)
if one likes the tune buy it , you'll be supporting creativity.