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Costliest (and Deadliest?) Disaster of 2015: Indonesia's $14 Billion Fires

By: Jeff Masters 4:05 PM GMT on October 13, 2015

Earth's most expensive weather-related disaster of 2015--and the most expensive disaster in Indonesia's history--is underway in that nation, where massive clouds of smoke from agricultural fires have choked the lungs of tens of millions of people for months. Indonesia's Center for International Forestry Research estimated the smoke will cost $14 billion in agriculture production, forest degradation, health, transportation and tourism, according to an October 9 article in The Wall Street Journal. Indonesia's Health Ministry says 20 million people--8% of the country's population--have been impacted by this year's haze; 120,000 of them have sought medical attention for respiratory problems. The disaster may also be the deadliest disaster of 2015, depending upon how one treats the difficult task of determining air pollution deaths. Over 10,000 adults are likely to die from pollution from the fires, judging by the results of a 2013 study in Nature Climate Change by Marlier et al., El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia. The researchers found that during the strong El Niño year of 1997, the extra smoke in the air in Southeast Asia likely caused an additional 10,800 adult deaths due to cardiovascular disease, and the fires of 2015 are putting a comparable amount of smoke into the air. (Globally, pollution due to fires between 1997 - 2006 was estimated to kill 532,000 people during an average El Niño year--about double the estimated 262,000 deaths that occurred in La Niña years.) Haze from this year's fires is also seriously impacting Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand. The haze in Singapore was so bad that it forced the cancellation of a "zombie apocalypse" competition last month.


Figure 1. Buildings (background) along Shenton way business district are blanketed with thick smog in Singapore on September 24, 2015. Singapore's air quality reached 'very unhealthy' levels on September 24, forcing schools to close, as thick smog from agricultural fires in Indonesia's neighboring Sumatra Island choked the city-state. Image credit: ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. MODIS image of smoke from fires burning in southern Sumatra and Borneo in Indonesia as seen from NASA's Terra satellite at 03:15 UTC September 24, 2015. The red squares are fires detected from the spacecraft. Image credit: NASA.

The culprit: El Niño-driven drought
The warm waters off the Pacific coast of Peru during a strong El Niño episode generate a column of rising air over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Once this rising air reaches the bottom of the stratosphere, which acts as a stable lid preventing further rising motion, the warm air is forced to spread out to the east and west along the Equator. This air eventually sinks over tropical regions well to the east and the west of the Eastern Pacific to complete a huge circulation cell several thousand miles in diameter. Since sinking air warms and dries as it descends, areas of high pressure and drought tend to form in these sinking air regions. To the west of the Eastern Pacific, El Niño events tend to create drought over Indonesia, New Guinea, and Northern Australia; to the east, drought commonly occurs over Northern Brazil. This year's El Niño event is one of the strongest on record, and has led to severe drought in Indonesia. Landowners commonly ignite(mostly illegal) fires to clear land and manage agricultural areas for production of pulp, paper and palm oil in Indonesia. Carbon-rich peatland forests, which are usually too wet to burn, go up in smoke. These peatland fires, which smolder underground, release about three times more smoke than a standard forest fire.


Figure 3. Smoke from huge fires in Indonesia drift westwards all the way to India in this GMS satellite image from NOAA taken at 04:25 UTC October 21, 1997. Image credit: AFP/AFP/Getty Images.

The fires of 2015: comparable to the fires of 1997
Severe drought during the strong 1997 - 1998 El Niño hit Indonesia and neighboring countries, resulting in a series of massive peatland and forest fires that were triggered by slash-and-burn agriculture. The fires produced a noxious yellow haze that covered an area about 2000 by 3000 miles in area for months. Estimates of the economic damage to Indonesia alone were estimated at $9.3 billion by EM-DAT, the international disaster database, making it their most expensive natural disaster in history. The 1997 - 1998 fires were also the most expensive weather-related disaster in the history of Singapore (damages estimated at $9 billion by the Singaporean government, due to increased healthcare costs and disruptions to air travel and business.) According to the 6 November 2002 issue of Nature magazine, the fires in Indonesia released huge amount of carbon dioxide—equivalent to 13 - 40% of the total amount released annually from human burning of fossil fuels. Indonesia's yearly greenhouse gas emissions are somewhat uncertain, due to the large unknowns associated with deforestation and burning of their forests, but the nation may be the world's fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases. According to an October 9 article at Climate Progress by Samantha Page, land use, including peat and forest fires, accounts for 63 percent of Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions. In September 2015, Indonesia promised that it would not increase these emissions over the next 15 years if it receives international support.


Video 1. Greenpeace Indonesia drone video footage showing slash and burn tactics in Indonesia and peat fires in September, 2015. Instead of deep red flames tearing down trees, the smoke is actually emerging from underground from peat that is burning up to 10 metres (33 feet) deep; 40% of this year’s Indonesia fires have been on peatland. Peatland fires were also a major problem in Russia during the record heat wave of 2010.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update on El Niño and the latest 2-week outlook in his Monday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Fire El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.... some of those dead trees remind me of Yellowstone, where the ground got hot and killed the trees.
A very wet and windy start for next week in Florida.



Quoting 2. Terri2003:

A very wet start for next week, in the south east.






How does this graphic indicate that the start of the week will be "very wet"?
Thanks dok!
If the smoke is forced into the waters what would be the consequences. ( think i know but always good to learn more, still have a few brain cells to fill)

Was wondering this as was thinking if a long line of hoses could be raised high up from building to buildings (not all but certain areas and turn ON only the hoses that have the incoming smoke filled breezes' direction) and create a fine mist / spray of water to dampen the smoke and bring it down THEN the worry would be the toxins accumulating onto the people ground, ground water, rivers, pets etc.

quick lunch time read thanks for the new blog
Quoting 3. tampabaymatt:



How does this graphic indicate that the start of the week will be "very wet"?


This is what I meant to put up the precipitation map.
Surprisingly shear in the southern GOM is in the 5-10 knt range. If this shear remains light over the next week or so, the CMC and NAVGEM solutions for tropical development might not be so crazy.
all that rain to our sw and not a drop.....likely one of the best last chances this year....
just seems to all be missing us this year to the south
going to be interesting to see how we deal with this looming drought
Déjà Vu Again: Hot September Drives 2015 To Hottest Year On Record

This was the hottest September by far in the dataset of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and second only to 2014 for hottest September in the NASA dataset.

Link
Quoting 8. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Surprisingly shear in the southern GOM is in the 5-10 knt range. If this shear remains light over the next week or so, the CMC and NAVGEM solutions for tropical development might not be so crazy.
Especially if that Jet Stream doesn't dip so far south. :)
Our local mets said on Oct 19 and 20th we may get TS force winds and rain. He then said that we may get a Gale force wind adv. On TWC they have Lauderdale by the Sea getting 30-35 mph winds and sometimes higher so he may be correct.....
I'm thinking the winds are coming from the pressure gradient.

Quoting 3. tampabaymatt:



How does this graphic indicate that the start of the week will be "very wet"?
Climate change could triple Amazon drought, study finds
From the article –

There have been three severe droughts in the Amazon in the past decade — one in 2005, one in 2010 and another one currently ongoing — that helped to inspire the study, …………………… Research estimated that the amount of carbon released as a result of the 2005 drought was more than the annual emissions of Europe and Japan combined, and the 2010 drought’s effects were even more severe, Duffy said.

Link
15. vis0

Quoting 5. vis0:

If the smoke is forced into the waters what would be the consequences. ( think i know but always good to learn more, still have a few brain cells to fill)

Was wondering this as was thinking if a long line of hoses could be raised high up from building to buildings (not all but certain areas and turn ON only the hoses that have the incoming smoke filled breezes' direction) and create a fine mist / spray of water to dampen the smoke and bring it down THEN the worry would be the toxins accumulating onto the people ground, ground water, rivers, pets etc.


forgot to add 2 things,
most important is to use what you need of nature (wood) in a respectful manner and as mentioned in the blogbyte's topic, stop the slashing style.

IDEA#2::
Was thinking of  lite  ionizer blanket being strung from building to building, cleaning it each night by small feeds of forced of water bringing the polluted water down a special hose into collection tanks but the amount of blankets type ionizers wold be too much, and cleaning them forget it, but i post it in case a smaller version could be helpful to allergic people.

IDEA#3:: So why not ionizer poles, put up every few miles (specially near hospitals) to attract the soot and within those poles a special collection tube leading to collection tanks. The poles are cleaned INWARDLY by a special ring that fits around the pole as it slides up & down the pole every few hours and forces mini jets of water INTO the holes that collected the soot, that water goes down the INSIDE of the pole into the collection tanks and mailed to the slash and burn company heads   , a joke NEVER SOLVE A PROBLEM WITH A NEGATIVE it leads to a remainder that one later pays for with jail time or karma, Those types of bad jokes only works in MOVIES & VID games NOT real LIFE.
Quoting 14. ColoradoBob1:

Climate change could triple Amazon drought, study finds
From the article –

There have been three severe droughts in the Amazon in the past decade — one in 2005, one in 2010 and another one currently ongoing — that helped to inspire the study, …………………… Research estimated that the amount of carbon released as a result of the 2005 drought was more than the annual emissions of Europe and Japan combined, and the 2010 drought’s effects were even more severe, Duffy said.

Link


The climate change is sooo tiny that it takes centurys to process. There are many ups and downs per 15-25 years and overall is the same...only a slight increase or decrease is happening and we really don't know cause we've only been trying to get info for the past 50 years...and 50 years before that the technology was limited and 50 years before that there was really none. The earth goes in cycles.
Why would you guys have a gale warning? Will North Florida be affected as well?

Quoting 12. Camerooski:

Our local mets said on Oct 19 and 20th we may get TS force winds and rain. He then said that we may get a Gale force wind adv. On TWC they have Lauderdale by the Sea getting 30-35 mph winds and sometimes higher so he may be correct.....

Hmmm. GFS has a little something around this time too. Hmm.
Quoting 12. Camerooski:

Our local mets said on Oct 19 and 20th we may get TS force winds and rain. He then said that we may get a Gale force wind adv. On TWC they have Lauderdale by the Sea getting 30-35 mph winds and sometimes higher so he may be correct.....


There is no evidence in the GFS and EURO of getting any TS/Hurricane up near S Florida. CMC-Nav or any other model is discounted. Gale force winds could happen with a strong high coming down causing NE winds between the high and a trough of low pressure behind a front this weekend, thus what your local mets might of said but again that is 6 days out.
Again use the GFS and EURO out to 5 days... anything over 5 days means the chance of something being there by then is under 25 % and 10% after 7 days.
19n 81w dang your island cant get a break. maybe it will turn around and come your way. otherwise there is hopefully a couple more tropical waves.
Quoting 17. scottsvb:



The climate change is sooo tiny that it takes centurys to process. There are many ups and downs per 15-25 years and overall is the same...only a slight increase or decrease is happening and we really don't know cause we've only been trying to get info for the past 50 years...and 50 years before that the technology was limited and 50 years before that there was really none. The earth goes in cycles.


yes this is true would you believe if I told you we should be in a mini ice period at this point in time
but were not
anyway it will be what it will be
and a extreme warming period is yet impending

warmer and warmer
faster and faster




were gonna see just how this all works out
No hurricane are going to form no more, I repeat no hurricane is going to form no more. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow
Atlantic hurricane season ends nov 30 2015

repeat

Atlantic hurricane season ends nov 30 2015
Quoting 24. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Atlantic hurricane season ends nov 30 2015

repeat

Atlantic hurricane season ends nov 30 2015
but whats the likelihood of a hurricane hitting FL on Nov 29th? low.
Quoting 19. HurricaneAndre:


Hmmm. GFS has a little something around this time too. Hmm.


That's the GEM (CMC) model.
Quoting 25. Camerooski:

but whats the likelihood of a hurricane hitting FL on Nov 29th? low.
just as good a chance as anytime of year
Quoting 24. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Atlantic hurricane season ends nov 30 2015

repeat

Atlantic hurricane season ends nov 30 2015


Fortunately, the historical frequency drops off from here to December 1 Gear up for interesting Fall/Winter weather abnormalities.
Quoting 22. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



yes this is true would you believe if I told you we should be in a mini ice period at this point in time
but were not
anyway it will be what it will be
and a extreme warming period is yet impending

warmer and warmer
faster and faster




were gonna see just how this all works out


actually we are in a cooling period....
Quoting 27. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just as good a chance as anytime of year


Not quite
Quoting 17. scottsvb:



The climate change is sooo tiny that it takes centurys to process. There are many ups and downs per 15-25 years and overall is the same...only a slight increase or decrease is happening and we really don't know cause we've only been trying to get info for the past 50 years...and 50 years before that the technology was limited and 50 years before that there was really none. The earth goes in cycles.


What cycle is responsible for the current warming? Why does this rate of change appear nowhere else in the paleoclimate record? Given the known radiative forcings there is no other explanation than human ghg emissions being the main driver of historically unprecedented warming. Denying this either means you do not believe in the basic properties of CO2, nor the empirical evidence that supports the accepted science in chemistry and physics, or there is some unknown, unseen force that behaves exactly like CO2, but is not CO2. If it is option two, there is a Nobel Prize in your future in you can prove it while discrediting 200 years of science.
Quoting 29. scottsvb:



actually we are in a cooling period....


We are? That's rich.
really?...then why is it so hot?

Quoting 29. scottsvb:



actually we are in a cooling period....
Quoting 29. scottsvb:



actually we are in a cooling period....




Most of the oceans would disagree with you.
gfs 12z hr 120 sunday morning oct 18

Good evening. Doc, thanks for the report of this evil air pollution. Poor people and critters who cannot avoid inhaling the smoke! Meanwhile further northwest Myanmar was flooded this year with more than 100 deaths and 15.000 homes destroyed.

In Europe the circulation of Ex-Joaquin with its center at the southwestern tip of the Iberian peninsula shoveled a lot of moist air into the western Mediterranean which should mean trouble for Italy and the Balkans further down the road (below in the upper right corner; btw, this tropical wave at 40w looks a bit suspicious too with its circulation, hmm?):



Apart from the remnants of Ex-Joaquin there is an upper level low filled with cold air over Germany which should bring first snow for some tonight/tomorrow:


Airmass 7 p.m. local time.

BBC today has a nice fresh round-up of the European weather the days ahead:

Snow hits eastern Europe
BBC weather video, 13 October 2015 Last updated at 12:44
It's feeling rather like winter in Poland and parts of eastern Europe as early snow arrives. Elsewhere it's a big dose of rain from the storms hitting northern Italy and the Mediterranean.

And the "Washington Post" is worried on the whole about the meaning of the persistent cold blob in the Northern Atlantic (please, nooo, *shiver*):

Why the Earth's past has scientists so worried about the Atlantic Ocean's circulation
WP, By Chris Mooney, October 12
In the last month, there's been much attention to a cool patch in the North Atlantic Ocean, where record cold temperatures over the past eight months present a stark contrast to a globe that is experiencing record warmth. And although there is certainly no consensus on the matter yet, some scientists think this pattern may be a sign of one long-feared consequence of climate change - a slowing of North Atlantic ocean circulation, due to a freshening of surface waters. ...
Quoting 33. 19N81W:

really?...then why is it so hot?


Quoting 33. 19N81W:

really?...then why is it so hot?




Why is it so cold so early in Alaska? Artic areas? Antartica? Both sides can challege each other and both can spill lies and fake graphics


Surrounded by rain and not one drop falls on us :(
Quoting 17. scottsvb:



The climate change is sooo tiny that it takes centurys to process. There are many ups and downs per 15-25 years and overall is the same...only a slight increase or decrease is happening and we really don't know cause we've only been trying to get info for the past 50 years...and 50 years before that the technology was limited and 50 years before that there was really none. The earth goes in cycles.


As denier fur balls go, this one really smacks of zero understanding of the Earth and it's systems.
Quoting 31. Naga5000:



What cycle is responsible for the current warming? Why does this rate of change appear nowhere else in the paleoclimate record? Given the known radiative forcings there is no other explanation than human ghg emissions being the main driver of historically unprecedented warming. Denying this either means you do not believe in the basic properties of CO2, nor the empirical evidence that supports the accepted science in chemistry and physics, or there is some unknown, unseen force that behaves exactly like CO2, but is not CO2. If it is option two, there is a Nobel Prize in your future in you can prove it while discrediting 200 years of science.


This is the typical global warming alarmist.. 200 years of science..give me a break... we didn't have that techology even 100 years ago to make such a claim. Our trends are based 99.5% on the Sun....if you think we are adding to it through CO2 emissions, you are correct..but it's like .2%
Let's forget about the models, myself I use my eyes and 30+ years following tropical systems.
It's very obvious that something is going on on the Central to Western Caribbean, just above Nicaragua, persistent cloudiness and a hint of a rotation.
We will have to wait,but in my humble opinion there will be some type of tropical system in this area in the next few days!!,it's that time of year for this area to get active!!,where it will go?,nobody knows?,but system in this area this time of the year will move NW towards the Yucatan Peninsula then NE.
Atmospheric Index is heading for values never seen before with 4.75 SD's later this month. I really hope those from SO Cal to FL are ready for what is about to come.

Quoting 2. Terri2003:

A very wet and windy start for next week in Florida.






40 MPH winds for Florida? I guess there will be some severe storms coming through according to those models.
Quoting 44. Hurricane1956:

Let's forget about the models, myself I use my eyes and 30+ years following tropical systems.
It's very obvious that something is going on on the Central to Western Caribbean, just above Nicaragua, persistent cloudiness and a hint of a rotation.
We will have to wait,but in my humble opinion there will be some type of tropical system in this area in the next few days!!,it's that time of year for this area to get active!!,where it will go?,nobody knows?,but system in this area this time of the year will move NW towards the Yucatan Peninsula then NE.



Can give you this, you're correct...a disturbance will be there...but the Yucitan will probably keep this in check.. also wind shear from the trough moving thru the GOM later this weekend-next week and energy from a possible TS in the pacific of El Salvador ....
gfs also as a heavy rainmaker into LA/TX region...........................................
Quoting 34. tampabaymatt:





Most of the oceans would disagree with you.


No matter what side of the debate you are on we are seeing Oceans warm in areas that normally cool during El-Nino. This ENSO event combined with Climate Change is resulting in a Sea Surface anomaly look that we've never witnessed before.


Quoting 42. scottsvb:



This is the typical global warming alarmist.. 200 years of science..give me a break... we didn't have that techology even 100 years ago to make such a claim. Our trends are based 99.5% on the Sun....if you think we are adding to it through CO2 emissions, you are correct..but it's like .2%


Please take some time and read the resources through this site as well as others like skeptical science. Your perceptions are misguided. For example, a well balanced pool contains about 2 ppm of chlorine to prevent algae growth. Small concentrations of molecules can have huge effects. It is about the properties and effects of those molecules. We can measure those effects in the atmosphere, we have measured the energy coming into the atmosphere and the energy leaving. The imbalance is at the absorption spectrum of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Calling me alarmist doesn't change the properties of gases. Hopefully you will take advantage of the wealth of knowledge on the subject, but it always seems easier to just keep fooling yourself.

Quoting 43. scottsvb:



like you understand? Were you here 100 years ago? 500? 1,000? 10,000? Everyone has their "Opinions" am I correct? No cause mine is a guess like everyone elses...we don't have the technology and history to give a full scale... only small periods
Yes but not all opinions are equal. Respecting the right to an opinion doesn't mean any of us have to respect the content of the opinion. Considering the science overwhelmingly disagrees with everything you've said this morning, I'm inclined to think you're wrong and not the data.
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

Atmospheric Index is heading for values never seen before with 4.75 SD's later this month. I really hope those from SO Cal to FL are ready for what is about to come.




Bring on the rain. That is all.
its not supposed to happen this year must be to do with the winds around us.....even the brac is getting rain
this was the october rain we needed

Quoting 40. stormpetrol:



Surrounded by rain and not one drop falls on us :(
Quoting 55. scottsvb:



Like the info on this site is correct...

You want to know what causes the Earth to Warm and Cool? It's the SUN... period.. everything goes in cycles. If you want to find out what we are doing to harm it... it's destroying the rain forests in S America and other parts of the world. You're trying to base info of what you read and not what is known. I'm not going to argue about it cause you will always think like Al Gore and Liberals that we are going to have cities under water in 20 years and that the ice caps will be melted by then...and we been hearing that for decades.


I find it highly amusing when asked to support your claims that go against established science and the statements of every major scientific organization in the world, you resort to name calling and political biases. I think that's enough with you for the day. In the hopes that maybe you will want to take an honest look at the science, here is the American Institute of Physics history of Global Warming, with clickable navigation. It's a great place to begin learning. Have a good one.
tell us why its a bad idea to cut down the rainforests?

Quoting 55. scottsvb:



Like the info on this site is correct...

You want to know what causes the Earth to Warm and Cool? It's the SUN... period.. everything goes in cycles. If you want to find out what we are doing to harm it... it's destroying the rain forests in S America and other parts of the world. You're trying to base info of what you read and not what is known. I'm not going to argue about it cause you will always think like Al Gore and Liberals that we are going to have cities under water in 20 years and that the ice caps will be melted by then...and we been hearing that for decades.
Quoting 17. scottsvb:

The climate change is sooo tiny that it takes centurys to process. There are many ups and downs per 15-25 years and overall is the same...only a slight increase or decrease is happening and we really don't know cause we've only been trying to get info for the past 50 years...and 50 years before that the technology was limited and 50 years before that there was really none. The earth goes in cycles.
Unfortunately, you couldn't be more wrong. But fortunately, there exist ample resources to help folks like you overcome their deep deficits of knowledge in this area. Wunderground's own awesome section on the climate is a great place to start. I strongly suggest you clear your mind of all the preconceived nonsense you're spouting, and study a bit at that link before commenting further. I can promise you'll be better received.

Best of luck, my friend...
This is from Christopher Burt's blog. Rainfall comparison in San Francisco during the last 2 Super El-Nino's

Quoting 60. Gearsts:




WOW. No wonder why the CMC & NAVGEM are going gang busters for another named system.

Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:



WOW. No wonder why the CMC & NAVGEM are going gang busters for another named system.


TC or not, expect a lot of rain for the Gulf states and the Wcaribbean.
Quoting 58. 19N81W:

tell us why its a bad idea to cut down the rainforests?


Hi 19, would you please tell me why it's a good idea to cut down the rainforest in South America or anywhere else? I need a good laugh every now and then.
What a update on the Poama ENSO model. Now reaching 2.70C as a peak sometime in November or December.

Quoting 56. scottsvb:



data is wrong..but again, data came from Liberals and global warming alarmists


You're too funny Scotty.......... beam me up!
69. 7544
So it looks like models are bringing back the fl storm in the gulf now with fi being on the east side is that why the mets sre sying ts winds fo most of fl tia
Quoting 48. LargoFl:




Welp, Here we go again
Quoting 65. scottsvb:



Using Wunderground is laughable cause it's from a Liberal/ Alarmist that has the facts wrong. If you believe everything you read, then you'll need help my friend. Anyways.. I'm not going to talk about climate change cause I know there are many Liberals and Global Alarmists in here.


Good, thanks!
Quoting 71. NNYer:



Good, thanks!


welcome
Quoting 65. scottsvb:

...I'm not going to talk about climate change...
Well, that's probably for the best. Climate science is a complex subject, so discussing it in a productive way requires more than name-calling and sloganeering. But, again, good luck to you in the future...
Quoting 56. scottsvb:



data is wrong..but again, data came from Liberals and global warming alarmists



Not to put too fine a point on it, but do you realize that if you are wrong, and 97% of climatologists and even Pope Benedict claims that you are wrong, then by obstructing life saving rescue efforts you are accessory to the premeditated murder of tens of million of people, for which you will be, in addition to more earthly punishments, burning in hell for eternity?

Quoting 43. scottsvb:



like you understand? Were you here 100 years ago? 500? 1,000? 10,000? Everyone has their "Opinions" am I correct? No cause mine is a guess like everyone elses...we don't have the technology and history to give a full scale... only small periods


As a matter of fact I do. Cause I went and got me one of them newfangled things they call an "Ed U cation". ( I had a really tough time accepting the Earth wasn't riding on the back of tortoise ). But now I know there are pockets of ice on Mercury in the perpetual shade, and Venus is hot enough to melt lead. Mercury has no atmosphere, and Venus' is almost 90 % Co2

Science grasshopper, science.
Quoting 12. Camerooski:

Our local mets said on Oct 19 and 20th we may get TS force winds and rain. He then said that we may get a Gale force wind adv. On TWC they have Lauderdale by the Sea getting 30-35 mph winds and sometimes higher so he may be correct.....


Hmmm...I just checked and the highest it shows is 25mph and 24mph on the 19th and 20th, respectively.
Indonesia had also experienced droughts and extensive bushfires in 1914,1941,1972 and 1983.
hello fellow bloggers! right now its mostly cloudy here in south florida but this is seems the result of the convergence of the sea breezes? one thing that i have noticed though,is that today feels more humid than yesterday.looking long range it seems that temps should moderate somewhat by next week with winds and rain?
Quoting 63. Gearsts:


what does this mean?
Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:



WOW. No wonder why the CMC & NAVGEM are going gang busters for another named system.


is that a major mjo over our basing??
Quoting 80. knightwarrior41:

what does this mean?
Negative NAO not AMO! Sorry
Not sure why models are saying that Koppu will become a Cat 4 or 5. Its COC is pulling an Ida, and is outside the convection, and it is under 20-30 knts of shear....

Quoting 56. scottsvb:



data is wrong.
There is... a dragon... behind my neck.

What's my evidence? Myself.
Quoting 82. Gearsts:

Negative AMO
interesting i just wikipedia'd this :)
Quoting 48. LargoFl:




Cindy '05 back again?

Quoting 83. Camerooski:

Not sure why models are saying that Koppu will become a Cat 4 or 5. Its COC is pulling an Ida, and is outside the convection, and it is under 20-30 knts of shear....
Dude, don't underestimate how quickly a cyclone with a vigorous - even exposed - center can explode later on.
Now back to the post at hand , this drought fueled disaster is also southeast of Indonesia's woes -

El Niño could leave 4 million people in Pacific without food or drinking water

Papua New Guinea drought has already claimed two dozen lives and looming El Niño weather pattern could be as severe as in 1997-98, when 23,000 people died

Link


Quoting 82. Gearsts:

Negative AMO
So it means a TON more rain for S. FL
Quoting 86. 62901IL:



Cindy '05 back again?
more like Issac 2012
Quoting 12. Camerooski:

Our local mets said on Oct 19 and 20th we may get TS force winds and rain. He then said that we may get a Gale force wind adv. On TWC they have Lauderdale by the Sea getting 30-35 mph winds and sometimes higher so he may be correct.....


It's something to watch.
Quoting 90. Camerooski:

more like Issac 2012


Oh. forgot about him.

Quoting 55. scottsvb:



Like the info on this site is correct...

You want to know what causes the Earth to Warm and Cool? It's the SUN... period.. everything goes in cycles. If you want to find out what we are doing to harm it... it's destroying the rain forests in S America and other parts of the world. You're trying to base info of what you read and not what is known. I'm not going to argue about it cause you will always think like Al Gore and Liberals that we are going to have cities under water in 20 years and that the ice caps will be melted by then...and we been hearing that for decades.


Not that fast but it will happen and we can no longer stop it for the lowest lying cities like Venice and Miami. Meanwhile in the face of a weakening sun, the atmosphere and oceans continue to warm.

As predicted in the 19'th and 20'th centuries. Verifying in the 21'st

I have children. I worry about this.

Quoting 56. scottsvb:



data is wrong..but again, data came from Liberals and global warming alarmists
Quoting 65. scottsvb:



Using Wunderground is laughable cause it's from a Liberal/ Alarmist that has the facts wrong. If you believe everything you read, then you'll need help my friend. Anyways.. I'm not going to talk about climate change cause I know there are many Liberals and Global Alarmists in here.


Certainly WU does have quite the Liberal community but it doesn't mean there aren't any Conservatives here. If you plan on telling someone they are wrong then you need to explain why they are wrong. Just saying "data is wrong" proves nothing. Explain why it's wrong, if not then there is no reason to speak about it.

Quoting 90. Camerooski:

more like Issac 2012
Isaac. Two a's, mang. Just sayin. :P
Quoting 85. knightwarrior41:

interesting i just wikipedia'd this :)
NAO not AMO
Quoting 25. Camerooski:

but whats the likelihood of a hurricane hitting FL on Nov 29th? low.


Kate, late November 1985, Cat 1 Tallahassee but downbursts and tornadoes in TLH metro created localized cat 3 damage and power was out for a week north of the city. Someone north of the city had a downed tree in his yard... a species that was not growing in his neighborhood.

It is not very often the EURO and GFS agree on the MJO strength in the Caribbean, coming up soon.
Quoting 94. SouthCentralTx:



Certainly WU does have quite the Liberal community but it doesn't mean there aren't any Conservatives here. If you plan on telling someone they are wrong then you need to explain why they are wrong. Just saying "data is wrong" proves nothing. Explain why it's wrong, if not then there is no reason to speak about it.
I'm a Conservative ;)
Quoting 65. scottsvb:



Using Wunderground is laughable cause it's from a Liberal/ Alarmist that has the facts wrong. If you believe everything you read, then you'll need help my friend. Anyways.. I'm not going to talk about climate change cause I know there are many Liberals and Global Alarmists in here.



OK, you have lost me here. What has politics got to do with it? The determination of whether we are causing the planet to warm over and above what natural variations in solar output etc would cause has nothing to do with who someone votes for. It is all about the detailed scientific analyses carried out by many highly trained and honest scientists measuring the environment and modelling and extrapolating what they measure. To suggest that virtually every climate expert in the world is choosing to fake their data and make up spurious conclusions to get extra government funding is, to put it politely, totally unbelievable. Do you seriously believe this is occurring? That would be like suggesting that the models that we so lap up on this blog were deliberately modified to predict landfalls in the US so that the NHS would get more funding.
Quoting 89. Camerooski:

So it means a TON more rain for S. FL
NAO like this.
Quoting 95. DVG:

Thankyou.


And they call me alarmist for supporting evidence based science. Wow. :)
Quoting 101. OviedoWatcher:




OK, you have lost me here. What has politics got to do with it? The determination of whether we are causing the planet to warm over and above what natural variations in solar output etc would cause has nothing to do with who someone votes for. It is all about the detailed scientific analyses carried out by many highly trained and honest scientists measuring the environment and modelling and extrapolating what they measure. To suggest that virtually every climate expert in the world is choosing to fake their data and make up spurious conclusions to get extra government funding is, to put it politely, totally unbelievable. Do you seriously believe this is occurring? That would be like suggesting that the models that we so lap up on this blog were deliberately modified to predict landfalls in the US so that the NHS would get more funding.


ok 1 final post I can go to google and post dozens if not over 100 scientists that dispute global warming for a FACT... my point is.. we have no FACTS outside of it's a normal cycle caused by the SUN and that we are only adding 1% to this and it's mostly cause of tearing down the rainforests in S America and Malaysia/Indonesia. Your rant about politics is cause most global warming (not all) are Liberals and that's true. Finally why isn't Miami and other major citys under water? I mean 25 years ago global alarmists were saying that would happen by 2010..infact just 10 years ago many global warming scientists said the Ice Caps would be gone by now or by 2020..... that's not happening. Again, alarmists.
Also your final sentence makes no sense and what is the NHS? You mean the NHC?
Quoting 106. scottsvb:



ok 1 final post I can go to google and post dozens if not over 100 scientists that dispute global warming for a FACT... my point is.. we have no FACTS outside of it's a normal cycle caused by the SUN and that we are only adding 1% to this and it's mostly cause of tearing down the rainforests in S America and Malaysia/Indonesia. Your rant about politics is cause most global warming (not all) are Liberals and that's true. Finally why isn't Miami and other major citys under water? I mean 25 years ago global alarmists were saying that would happen by 2010..infact just 10 years ago many global warming scientists said the Ice Caps would be gone by now or by 2020..... that's not happening. Again, alarmists.
Also your final sentence makes no sense and what is the NHS? You mean the NHC?


I thought you were done talking about this? Please support your claims with evidence. TIA.
Good afternoon

While everyone is busy debating the Caribbean here is an interesting feature cruising towards the Eastern Caribbean in stealth mode near 13 N and 48 W :-). It even has a small but well defined signature at the 850 MB level.



Quoting 106. scottsvb:



ok 1 final post I can go to google and post dozens if not over 100 scientists that dispute global warming for a FACT... my point is.. we have no FACTS outside of it's a normal cycle caused by the SUN and that we are only adding 1% to this and it's mostly cause of tearing down the rainforests in S America and Malaysia/Indonesia. Your rant about politics is cause most global warming (not all) are Liberals and that's true. Finally why isn't Miami and other major citys under water? I mean 25 years ago global alarmists were saying that would happen by 2010..infact just 10 years ago many global warming scientists said the Ice Caps would be gone by now or by 2020..... that's not happening. Again, alarmists.
Also your final sentence makes no sense and what is the NHS? You mean the NHC?


I'm sure he does mean the NHC.
Quoting 101. OviedoWatcher:




OK, you have lost me here. What has politics got to do with it? The determination of whether we are causing the planet to warm over and above what natural variations in solar output etc would cause has nothing to do with who someone votes for. It is all about the detailed scientific analyses carried out by many highly trained and honest scientists measuring the environment and modelling and extrapolating what they measure. To suggest that virtually every climate expert in the world is choosing to fake their data and make up spurious conclusions to get extra government funding is, to put it politely, totally unbelievable. Do you seriously believe this is occurring? That would be like suggesting that the models that we so lap up on this blog were deliberately modified to predict landfalls in the US so that the NHS would get more funding.
Politics are a big part of climate change. I do believe the climate experts are sincere about wanting to help the planet. The problem is when solutions are found, it wont be them making the decisions. It will be world leaders who have all the power and are mostly corrupt. I would rather take my chances with the climate.
Quoting 108. kmanislander:

Good afternoon

While everyone is busy debating the Caribbean here is an interesting feature cruising towards the Eastern Caribbean in stealth mode near 13 N and 48 W :-). It even has a small by well defined signature at the 850 MB level.






Oh, that looks interesting.

You think it'll amount to anything.
Quoting 107. Naga5000:



I thought you were done talking about this? Please support your claims with evidence. TIA.


here is 1 of many I can post from different organziations and scientists.. you all have google and can look them up.
Now I'm done.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/28/study-predicts- decades-of-global-cooling-ahead/

Quoting 111. 62901IL:



Oh, that looks interesting.

You think it'll amount to anything.



The odds are against it. Very dry out there now.

Quoting 113. kmanislander:



The odds are against it. Very dry out there now.




I put the odds at................................................ .

908,675,123,456,789-1

Not a chance.
Quoting 112. scottsvb:



here is 1 of many I can post from different organziations and scientists.. you all have google and can look them up.
Now I'm done.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/28/study-predicts- decades-of-global-cooling-ahead/




Did you even bother to read the abstract of that paper?

"These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining8 and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures4, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States"

I really do love when you guys post stuff that doesn't say what you claim it does. It is again another paper describing an impact of natural variability and how it plays into the current anthropogenic rise in global temperatures. Sigh.
Quoting 95. DVG:
Climate change positions should not be for political gain. It is sad that it is the case. It is also the case some are staking positions based on obtaining easy money. History records that sea levels have been much higher in the last 1000 years. Glaciers did not cover as much land as they do currently.

Some Vikings went to Normand France due to losing sea coast villages due to rising seas. Others continued to raid England from Scandinavia. King Edward of England hired some of the Norman based Vikings as soldiers to protect England. He couldn't pay them which led to problems. After Edward dies, Norman Viking Harold becomes king. The rest is history. The moral is seas have risen and fallen in the past without man's help.

I cannot comment on science. I am unqualified.

Kennedy-blah-blah-blah-Obama-blah-blah-blah-Alinsky-blah-blah-blah-socialism-blah-blah-blah-Clinton-blah-blah-blah-socialism-blah-blah-blah-Stalin-blah-blah-blah--blah-blah-blah-Mao-blah-blah-blah-Hitler-blah-blah-blah
Oh, I do so enjoy it when someone regurgitates a mouthful of discredited and debunked anti-science nonsense, then follows that up with the disclaimer, "I cannot comment on science. I am unqualified."

I'll say.

As for the rest of your silly Glenn Beck-ian alarmism, well, this ain't the forum for it. ;-)

Quoting 105. Naga5000:



And they call me alarmist for supporting evidence based science. Wow. :)
I dunno, I probably chuckle more at being called "mean" or some variation of that. :)
Quoting 117. KoritheMan:


I dunno, I probably chuckle more at being called "mean" or some variation of that. :)



I usually get that too, but I am playing nice today. :)
Quoting 109. 62901IL:



I'm sure he does mean the NHC.


Yes, I did mean that, of course. Thanks for correcting it.
Conspiracy theorists on the blog today!

Just in case you were wondering.
Quoting 119. OviedoWatcher:



Yes, I did mean that, of course. Thanks for correcting it.


You're welcome.

Quoting 106. scottsvb:



ok 1 final post I can go to google and post dozens if not over 100 scientists that dispute global warming for a FACT... my point is.. we have no FACTS outside of it's a normal cycle caused by the SUN and that we are only adding 1% to this and it's mostly cause of tearing down the rainforests in S America and Malaysia/Indonesia. Your rant about politics is cause most global warming (not all) are Liberals and that's true. Finally why isn't Miami and other major citys under water? I mean 25 years ago global alarmists were saying that would happen by 2010..infact just 10 years ago many global warming scientists said the Ice Caps would be gone by now or by 2020..... that's not happening. Again, alarmists.
Also your final sentence makes no sense and what is the NHS? You mean the NHC?


Yes. Isn't Google great! 53,400,000 hits for "Extraterrestrials are living among us". Which planet are you from?
Quoting 117. KoritheMan:


I dunno, I probably chuckle more at being called "mean" or some variation of that. :)



Now you are just being mean. :)
Quoting 69. 7544:

So it looks like models are bringing back the fl storm in the gulf now with fi being on the east side is that why the mets sre sying ts winds fo most of fl tia
The NWS isn't saying this. Some TV met said that. The answer is simple, and it's spelled out in the Miami forecast discussion. Start reading the discussions and don't listen to TV mets or posts here that quote them.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
Quoting 122. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Yes. Isn't Google great! 53,400,000 hits for "Extraterrestrials are living among us". Which planet are you from?
The "moon landing was a hoax" idea was a mental virus planted by NASA to cover up the existence of the aliens we met when we went to the moon.

Quoting 118. Naga5000:



I usually get that too, but I am playing nice today. :)
Mean isn't exactly the word I wanted to use either. You're on my Facebook. You know what I'm really capable of.

But hey, I'll be nice today, too. I'll reserve a permaban for aneurysms during US hurricane duress. :)
Quoting 110. scott39:

Politics are a big part of climate change. I do believe the climate experts are sincere about wanting to help the planet. The problem is when solutions are found, it wont be them making the decisions. It will be world leaders who have all the power and are mostly corrupt. I would rather take my chances with the climate.


Climate change itself is not political, it is science. What is political is the policies that either make it worse or mitigate it I fully understand that many on the right see climate change as being a tool used by liberals to raise taxes and reduce freedom of choice, and implementing environmentally-friendly policies certainly does impact people's freedoms. Whether that is a price worth paying or not is clearly politics, but to assume that it is just an excuse to raise taxes is not really true. I lived in Sweden a decade or so ago (admittedly not the most right wing country in the world), and at the time the Green Party had a number of policies to reduce energy usage by increasing taxes on fuel, which I am sure you would justifiably label as a socialist/liberal program, however their stated aim was to make the increase tax neutral by cutting taxes elsewhere by the same amount as was raised through the fuel tax. To me, such a policy makes sense, though how and where you make the balancing cuts would vary dramatically depending on whether it was implemented by a right wing or left wing government. It does however illustrate that climate change policies don't have to automatically be liberal.
OK, now I'll buy the CMC. Instead of that tropical storm hitting Florida, it's now going to come on shore in Alabama! Like five hours later, it's over my house!! There's no doubt the CMC has this one nailed!!!

Where did I put that plywood????

Quoting 132. sar2401:

OK, now I'll buy the CMC. Instead of that tropical storm hitting Florida, it's now going to come on shore in Alabama! Like five hours later, it's over my house!! There's no doubt the CMC has this one nailed!!!

Where did I put that plywood????




I think Grothar took it while your were blogging .lol
Quoting 131. OviedoWatcher:



Climate change itself is not political, it is science. What is political is the policies that either make it worse or mitigate it I fully understand that many on the right see climate change as being a tool used by liberals to raise taxes and reduce freedom of choice, and implementing environmentally-friendly policies certainly does impact people's freedoms. Whether that is a price worth paying or not is clearly politics, but to assume that it is just an excuse to raise taxes is not really true. I lived in Sweden a decade or so ago (admittedly not the most right wing country in the world), and at the time the Green Party had a number of policies to reduce energy usage by increasing taxes on fuel, which I am sure you would justifiably label as a socialist/liberal program, however their stated aim was to make the increase tax neutral by cutting taxes elsewhere by the same amount as was raised through the fuel tax. To me, such a policy makes sense, though how and where you make the balancing cuts would vary dramatically depending on whether it was implemented by a right wing or left wing government. It does however illustrate that climate change policies don't have to automatically be liberal.
Anything that affects so many people in such profound ways is necessarily political. The science necessarily has political implications whether we want it to or not.
Sar spends so much time typing, I don't see how he keeps track of anything.
Quoting 127. Abacosurf:


The ECMWF is a little late compared to the CMC, and the low isn't anywhere near as impressive, but it's still almost right, because that low is hitting Alabama! I'll have to wait a little longer, but there's no doubt I'll finally get a TON of rain!! Even though it's 10 days out, I'm going to start stocking up now!!!
Quoting 133. rmbjoe1954:



I think Grothar took it while your were blogging .lol
I wouldn't be surprised. Probably waiting to whack me on the head with it when I'm not looking.
I am a Conservatist, and I do think that man could do a lot better of taking care of the only earth we have.

Plastics floating in our oceans, Diminishing Rainforest, ect ect.
But what I don't understand is when you have people soooo adamant about global warming, They try so hard to convince the non believer.
But still live the life of a denier.
Plane rides, Driving big trucks. Seems to me its gets to the point its a tad bit two faced.
Im sure there are people that preach the Global Warming Word on this blog that don't live by what they preach.
JMO
Quoting 136. sar2401:

The ECMWF is a little late compared to the CMC, and the low isn't anywhere near as impressive, but it's still almost right, because that low is hitting Alabama! I'll have to wait a little longer, but there's no doubt I'll finally get a TON of rain!! Even though it's 10 days out, I'm going to start stocking up now!!!
Me as well. It's gonna be a disasta. We need rain. Only thing growing in my yard is fire ants
Looks like we could have a storm in the Atlantic starting late this week.
I just recently downgraded from a pick-up truck (last 15 years) to a small 4 cylinder compact with a low emissions rating and high MPG; small contribution perhaps in the big scheme of things but the right choice for this believer in reducing emissions and fossil fuel use .................Nuff said.

Yall have a great day..............................WW.
Quoting 78. maxcrc:

Indonesia had also experienced droughts and extensive bushfires in 1914,1941,1972 and 1983.


Not picking a fight just wondering if those were El nino years as well.

Got a link for that ?

All those years were not driven by the massive palm oil greed machine, and the crash of the of nature on their islands.

It's not that there's a fire somewhere, it's the scale of the fires.

Here's the last Modis shot from Oct 5th. 11 days after the one used by Dr. Masters in this post.



I have no idea how deep the peat is on these islands , but I know a little about it's burning in the far North. The Northwest Territories had 6 fires start this spring that burned all winter . and started new fires this spring. The reason 58,000 Russians died in 2010 was in large part because the drained peat lands around Moscow caught fire.

These days when one reads about a "forest fire". It's also a ground fire, and not the pine needles on top, but 6 and 8 feet of very old carbon burning under the worst conditions. Low O2 , low temperatures . A perfect soup for some of the nastiest gases fires can make. There are shots from the Modis where the smoke is yellow in Siberia. That's not twigs and needles burning , that's a fire 4 feet in the ground eating dead plant material hundreds of years old.

Fire is part of the system , yes. But we are in new system. And fire is burning like we have never seen before. It is sterilizing the soil because it is burning so hot and deep. Anyone who doubts this, ............... there was a pinion , and juniper forest in Northwest New Mexico , that was wiped out by fire. They need fire to seed.
These are toughest of trees They live hundreds of years. It's been over a decade not one tree has come back, even with re-plantings.

It's one thing to burn the forest, it's a whole other thing when we fry the soil.
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

Atmospheric Index is heading for values never seen before with 4.75 SD's later this month. I really hope those from SO Cal to FL are ready for what is about to come.


I live in Fl...What's comin?
Quoting 132. sar2401:

OK, now I'll buy the CMC. Instead of that tropical storm hitting Florida, it's now going to come on shore in Alabama! Like five hours later, it's over my house!! There's no doubt the CMC has this one nailed!!!

Where did I put that plywood????




hate to break it to ya this will be an E-pacific thing, any energy in the carib will be directed towards Fl, not Alabama...
Quoting 42. scottsvb:



This is the typical global warming alarmist.. 200 years of science..give me a break... we didn't have that techology even 100 years ago to make such a claim. Our trends are based 99.5% on the Sun....if you think we are adding to it through CO2 emissions, you are correct..but it's like .2%

Joseph Fourier discovered the greenhouse effect in the mid 1820's when he was trying to reconcile the incoming solar radiation with the temperature of the Earth. John Tyndall measured the infrared absorption characteristics of various gases including CO2 and water vapor in the 1850's. Svante Arrhenius discovered the relationship between changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and the change in radiative forcing in the 1890's. The beginnings of science on the subject really are nearly 200 years old.
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:

Looks like we could have a storm in the Atlantic starting late this week.

Not going to get ahead of myself, but we could have 2. ECMWF and GFS have remained consistent the past 4-6 runs or so in developing a low pressure area north of the islands, near Bermuda.
Plenty of time to monitor.
Quoting 142. ColoradoBob1:



Not picking a fight just wondering if those were El nino years as well.

Got a link for that ?

All those years were not driven by the massive palm oil greed machine, and the crash of the of nature on their islands.

It's not that there's a fire somewhere, it's the scale of the fires.

Here's the last Modis shot from Oct 5th. 11 days after the one used by Dr. Masters in this post.



I have no idea how deep the peat is on these islands , but I know a little about it's burning in the far North. The Northwest Territories had 6 fires start this spring that burned all winter . and started new fires this spring. The reason 58,000 Russians died in 2010 was in large part because the drained peat lands around Moscow caught fire.

These days when one reads about a "forest fire". It's also a ground fire, and not the pine needles on top, but 6 and 8 feet of very old carbon burning under the worst conditions. Low O2 , low temperatures . A perfect soup for some of the nastiest gases fires can make. There are shots from the Modis where the smoke is yellow in Siberia. That's not twigs and needles burning , that's a fire 4 feet in the ground eating dead plant material hundreds of years old.

Fire is part of the system , yes. But we are in new system. And fire is burning like we have never seen before. It is sterilizing the soil because it is burning so hot and deep. Anyone who doubts this, ............... there was a pinion , and juniper forest in Northwest New Mexico , that was wiped out by fire. They need fire to seed.
These are toughest of trees They live hundreds of years. It's been over a decade not one tree has come back, even with re-plantings.

It's one thing to burn the forest, it's a whole other thing when we fry the soil.
Thank you for that post...Now I understand the science behind the danger of these types of fires.
Quoting 143. Loduck:

I live in Fl...What's comin?


CFSv2 sez lots and lots of rain. Not unusual for a strong El Nino.

Quoting 93. georgevandenberghe:



Not that fast but it will happen and we can no longer stop it for the lowest lying cities like Venice and Miami. Meanwhile in the face of a weakening sun, the atmosphere and oceans continue to warm.

As predicted in the 19'th and 20'th centuries. Verifying in the 21'st

I have children. I worry about this.




Most important thing said in the first one hundred posts, IMO. The whole post is good.. we ARE in a solar cooling cycle, but temps continue to rise.. what will happen when we get back to a more energetic cycle?
Quoting 145. riverat544:


Joseph Fourier discovered the greenhouse effect in the mid 1820's when he was trying to reconcile the incoming solar radiation with the temperature of the Earth. John Tyndall measured the infrared absorption characteristics of various gases including CO2 and water vapor in the 1850's. Svante Arrhenius discovered the relationship between changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and the change in radiative forcing. The beginnings of science on the subject really are nearly 200 years old.


I believe Fourier was a registered Democrat. ;)
146. tiggerhurricanes2001
They're almost identical.
Quoting 143. Loduck:

I live in Fl...What's comin?


I believe the end of the world or at least the end of Florida.
Quoting 143. Loduck:

I live in Fl...What's comin?



15 feet of snow
25W has been upgraded and given the 23rd typhoon name of the season.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI (1525)
3:00 AM JST October 14 2015
==============================
Near Marshall Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Champi (1000 hPa) located at 13.4N 158.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 14.9N 154.3E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Truks (Chuuk) waters
48 HRS: 16.3N 149.7E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 18.0N 144.8E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Mariana Islands
I could care less about GW, I'm interested in GOM storms, I'm in Aruba right now going to Tampa area next week for 10 days, I love reading the debates about weather, not the political crap, we can't change it, so let's move on to what could be a life safety issue for Americans next week!
Just gonna dry up all that dripping sarcasm....... Also Western Pacific on TD 25, totally normal. I don't know what El Nino you guys are talking about *waves hand*

Quoting 144. chrisdscane:



hate to break it to ya this will be an E-pacific thing, any energy in the carib will be directed towards Fl, not Alabama...
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

Atmospheric Index is heading for values never seen before with 4.75 SD's later this month. I really hope those from SO Cal to FL are ready for what is about to come.



Yes Michael Ventrice put this out on twitter. Dr. M. Ventrice works at WSI. When stats in weather and climate are clustered around the mean you will see little variability in weather in relation to what are "normals" or the average. However, if the Standard Deviations are large like 4.75 - 5 Standard Deviations then weather has a large variability spread. Which means wild swings in weather Hot - Cold. Wet - Dry etc. Expect anything possible, snow in the deep south, and warmth in the upper Midwest in relation to "normals". Remember cold, warm, wet, and dry are all relative too
Quoting 144. chrisdscane:



hate to break it to ya this will be an E-pacific thing, any energy in the carib will be directed towards Fl, not Alabama...Actually So.Texas is the answer.
In my nonprofessional unscientific opinion I feel as though this winter in D.C won't live up to the more recent ones (2013-2014,2014-2015) Perhaps milder and rainy rather than snowy and cold.
Quoting 151. washingtonian115:

146. tiggerhurricanes2001
They're almost identical.

I've never seen them that tightly packed. Hmmm they might be onto something. I say we should still monitor things. Anyone whom says hurricane season's over before November 30th is a total dumbfounded fool. October can still be a dangerous month for hurricanes, especially for Florida and the Gulf Coast.
Quoting 145. riverat544:


Joseph Fourier discovered the greenhouse effect in the mid 1820's when he was trying to reconcile the incoming solar radiation with the temperature of the Earth. John Tyndall measured the infrared absorption characteristics of various gases including CO2 and water vapor in the 1850's. Svante Arrhenius discovered the relationship between changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and the change in radiative forcing. The beginnings of science on the subject really are nearly 200 years old.


I know nothing, therefore no one else knows nothing. Therefore everyone else is as stupid as me.
Quoting 139. Sandcat:

Me as well. It's gonna be a disasta. We need rain. Only thing growing in my yard is fire ants


Waiting (not with relish) for these to establish in the DC metro area. The area is just barely too cold to allow winter survival. I've speculated before that the first surviving mound will probably be under the DCA temperature sensor.


Meanwhile, I grow sweetpotatoes here in my garden. Pretty much trouble free except for deer/rabbits/groundhogs eating the leaves and rats eating the tubers. They need long hot summers. In TLH which is hotter I also grew them but there we have SWEET POTATO WEEVILS.. They are a major pest and caused me troubles because they can (and did) ruin a stored crop. Not an issue here in DC metro. They can't take the winters.. not even close!
163. DVG

I am sorry if history and the facts interfere with your position, but they remain the truth. If you can't repudiate the facts, you simply assault the provider and try to initiate a mob mentality. Yeah Faux news.....whatever Must've hit where it hurt......
RS has been sick , he's back -

NASA: Monster El Nino + Climate Change Means ‘Not Normal’ Winter is On the Way

“Over North America, this winter will definitely not be normal. However, the climatic events of the past decade make ‘normal’ difficult to define.” — Bill Patzert, climatologist at NASA’s JPL speaking in Earth Observatory today.

Link
Obviously nothing....I was attempting to draw someone out but it didn't work I don't think
Quoting 66. NativeSun:

Hi 19, would you please tell me why it's a good idea to cut down the rainforest in South America or anywhere else? I need a good laugh every now and then.
Quoting 167. Loduck:

Oh my...Thanks for the warning smart donkey


You know I was just joking:)
Quoting 153. Tazmanian:




15 feet of snow


I'll take a trace of snow. The schools, businesses, govt, everything would shut down.
I'm beginning to wonder what schools I went to!!
Quoting 159. washingtonian115:

In my nonprofessional unscientific opinion I feel as though this winter in D.C won't live up to the more recent ones (2013-2014,2014-2015) Perhaps milder and rainy rather than snowy and cold.


I'm expecting abnormal conditions from this wild El-Nino season. Expect the jet to dip and bring in brutal arctic air for the Upper Midwest with Gulf moisture occasionally getting far enough North for some huge snow events and would not be surprised if that meant the Northeast is going go get hammered again. Severe weather and ice storms for the Gulf states. Who knows every El-Nino is different and this one has done the expected and unexpected.
Quoting 164. ColoradoBob1:

RS has been sick , he's back -

NASA: Monster El Nino + Climate Change Means ‘Not Normal’ Winter is On the Way

“Over North America, this winter will definitely not be normal. However, the climatic events of the past decade make ‘normal’ difficult to define.” — Bill Patzert, climatologist at NASA’s JPL speaking in Earth Observatory today.

Link



YAWN same old news we here every week
Quoting 43. scottsvb:


like you understand? Were you here 100 years ago? 500? 1,000? 10,000? Everyone has their "Opinions" am I correct? No cause mine is a guess like everyone elses...we don't have the technology and history to give a full scale... only small periods.
You seriously don't know the difference between evidence and research based science and baseless "opinions" ? I have a feeling that this hotbed of denial and misinformation is your favorite climate website.
hmmmmmm!!!!!!1!!


Quoting 168. luvtogolf:



You know I was just joking:)
:)))))
Models are starting to switch from caribbean to BOC development but shear will probably shut anything down that tries to come from the gulf.
Extreme Southeast Asia fires, likely hottest year on record, record SST's, record by double Central Pacific season for storms, South Carolina one in a thousand year flood, historic monthly record rainfall for Texas and Oklahoma in the Spring. Indian and Pakistan heat waves that were top five recorded for fatalities, and so many more examples that could be given worldwide. Final death attributable to El-Nino and overall cost will be staggering. We've got a long way to go yet.
I knew the fires were bad in Indonesia recently because of the Palm Oil boom and this year was especially bad. I did not realize the scale of the thing until I read this blog. To say I am alarmed is an understatement. This is really, really bad news on the global warming front, possibly catastrophic considering the huge amount of molecules that have properties being released into the atmosphere. I would please ask that no one ever calls me an "alarmist", from henceforth I would humbly ask that I be considered a "catastrophist".
This is very serious, how long will it take these fires to burn themselves out?

Deniers please post coherent thoughts, you are making yourselves look real bad. Wait I haven't heard the "History Channel" magnetic field HAARP conspiracies yet, nor I have I heard my most favorite denier nonsense of all time. When are the "smart" deniers of the properties of molecules going to chime in?
We laugh, the Republican party is the only right wing party in the world to deny climate change. To the point, misinformation on a historic scale, has led to roughly half of Americans not believing the overwhelming science behind AGW. It's a problem. Biggest money, king making, American political owning family of the super rich, not for the whole lets deal with AGW thing. It's a real big problem.
183. SLU
I'm conCERNed about what's HAARPening to our planet. We need to take action now before it's way too late. The climate is changing faster than we can manage.
Ok can we stop arguing over global warming. I know the tropics are going down right now so the only thing to talk about is global warming but still stop arguing gees.
Looking at any potential tropical development- wind shear is pretty favorable over most of the Caribbean but it is screaming in the NW Caribbean.
Anyone remember Tropical Storm Hanna from last October? It formed from a low that crossed from the Pacific into the BOC and then eventually moved into the western Caribbean.
It remained weak and eventually moved into Guatemala .

If we get a strong blocking high across the S.E., we could see something similar develop and get stuck down in the BOC or western Caribbean.

Just one of many possibilities.
18Z, GFS has a 1003 mb low in the western GOM at 210 hours.

1001 mb at 222 hours - western GOM.
1003 mb at 240 hours - still in the western GOM
Quoting 185. Bucsboltsfan:

Looking at any potential tropical development- wind shear is pretty favorable over most of the Caribbean but it is screaming in the NW Caribbean.


Yes, but shear is moving out West to East and eventually in several days, conducive conditions may well exist. Really starting to look like development may be possible in the coming seven days in the Western Caribbean.
I wonder how much of this disaster we can put on US companies, mostly those that use palm oil, for the destruction of the forests and the resulting pollution?
Quoting 174. Grothar:


If the wave train is like this next season, could get really bad out there.
Quoting 188. DeepSeaRising:



Yes, but shear is moving out West to East and eventually in several days, conducive conditions may well exist. Really starting to look like development may be possible in the coming seven days in the Western Caribbean.


So I assume that reliable models are forecasting it to drop to favorable conditions. A bit surprised with El Niño so well established.
Quoting 182. DeepSeaRising:

We laugh, the Republican party is the only right wing party in the world to deny climate change. To the point, misinformation on a historic scale, has led to roughly half of Americans not believing the overwhelming science behind AGW. It's a problem. Biggest money, king making, American political owning family of the super rich, not for the whole lets deal with AGW thing. It's a real big problem.
I am a very right wing conservative, however the Republican party should do more for climate change, some of the candidates this election however do believe in climate change, so its not "all" republicans...
Quoting 191. Bucsboltsfan:



So I assume that reliable models are forecasting it to drop to favorable conditions. A bit surprised with El Niño so well established.


Appears there may be a window. Shear still a very difficult thing to predict too far outward. This high shear should move out within the next 48-72 hours and a window of favorable shear should exist afterward for 24-72 hours in the Western and Northwestern Caribbean with condition afterward largely unknown right now. Moisture fetch ongoing, mojo moving in, maybe shear lowering. At least an area to monitor as always this time of year.
Quoting 182. DeepSeaRising:

We laugh, the Republican party is the only right wing party in the world to deny climate change. To the point, misinformation on a historic scale, has led to roughly half of Americans not believing the overwhelming science behind AGW. It's a problem. Biggest money, king making, American political owning family of the super rich, not for the whole lets deal with AGW thing. It's a real big problem.
I don't mean to get all political but its not every republican.Some are concern about the environment while I've meant some democrats that don't care much for the environment.What I'm saying is that we should talk about the individual but not the party they belong to.I remember in grade school when I was in one of those classes that had a bad reputation but I along with a few others didn't behave like the rest of them but since we were in the same class as them that is how we were perceived.
Quoting 192. Camerooski:

I am a very right wing conservative, however the Republican party should do more for climate change, some of the candidates this election however do believe in climate change, so its not "all" republicans...


Absolutely, think likely majority of Republicans well know the truth. And some are breaking rank and siding with truth. I'm a moral conservative Christian Independent. All I care about brother is the truth. Jeb is one who is not hiding from AGW and has moved towards the center, may end up being formidable. I'd take Bugs Bunny over Trump.
Quoting 187. Sfloridacat5:

GFS has a 1003 mb low in the western GOM at 210 hours.

You should prepared and tell your family and friends.
Quoting 194. washingtonian115:

I don't mean to get all political but its not every republican.Some are concern about the environment while I've meant some democrats that don't care much for the environment.What I'm saying is that we should talk about the individual but not the party they belong to.I remember in grade school when I was in one of those classes that had a bad reputation but I along with a few others didn't behave like the rest of them but since we were in the same class as them that is how we were perceived.


Great point, as a whole the Parties are one in ideology. But that did not use to be so. Use to be lots of moderates. There still are. In both parties. Those are the ones I like. You seem like a real trouble maker Wash. Can only imagine you as a child. :)
198. vis0
▬1▬Quoting 29. scottsvb:



actually we are in a cooling period....


▬2▬Quoting 32. Naga5000:



We are? That's rich.
▬3▬ cooling like going from the frying pan to the oven ...set on baking (400º with a fan). Soon bumper stickers will read
its not the HEAT its the
HUMIDITY        CO2.
 
Quoting 182. DeepSeaRising:

We laugh, the Republican party is the only right wing party in the world to deny climate change. To the point, misinformation on a historic scale, has led to roughly half of Americans not believing the overwhelming science behind AGW. It's a problem. Biggest money, king making, American political owning family of the super rich, not for the whole lets deal with AGW thing. It's a real big problem.


the australian "liberal" party, at least under Abbot, denied it also. they don't have "conservative" in their name but their record is plain.


Quoting 199. georgevandenberghe:



the australian "liberal" party, at least under Abbot, denied it also. they don't have "conservative" in their name but they dispute AGW nevertheless. The article should have looked at parties philosophies and planks, not names.



With SO few Right wing parties not acknowledging, you make a most excellent point. I at least expect that from you, I'm always rewarded when you post.
Quoting 192. Camerooski:

I am a very right wing conservative, however the Republican party should do more for climate change, some of the candidates this election however do believe in climate change, so its not "all" republicans...


Examples please
Quoting 112. scottsvb:


here is 1 of many I can post from different organziations and scientists.. you all have google and can look them up.
Now I'm done.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/28/study-predicts- decades-of-global-cooling-ahead/


Scott, you promised us 100 scientists' studies discrediting global warming and this is all you can come up with? Weak. To the point of making you look silly. :(
203. MahFL
Quoting 101. OviedoWatcher:




OK, you have lost me here. What has politics got to do with it?


Well generally in the USA Republicans do not agree climate change is caused by humans, whereas most Democrats do. So non believers in climate change blame liberals for making up climate change.

850mb vort off Honduras increasing this evening
205. vis0

Quoting 136. sar2401:

The ECMWF is a little late compared to the CMC, and the low isn't anywhere near as impressive, but it's still almost right, because that low is hitting Alabama! I'll have to wait a little longer, but there's no doubt I'll finally get a TON of rain!! Even though it's 10 days out, I'm going to start stocking up now!!!
i would start watching "Λ^RADAR".   If "Λ^RADAR" starts burring his bones by nailing them down RUN! towards Florida.

Now to be fair its not that a TS or some vortex of moisture cannot hit 'Bama in October, its that the prediction is so far away, it needs directions just to make it to Earth.
Quoting 201. DogtownMex:



Examples please
Chris Christie in 2014 said that he believed the 90% of scientists that believe in climate change, Bobby Jindal agrees, Jeb Bush believes.
Quoting 206. Camerooski:

Chris Christie in 2014 said that he believed the 90% of scientists that believe in climate change, Bobby Jindal agrees, Jeb Bush believes.


And many more, google that. Sorry working twelve hour days, feeling lazy. Millions of Republican believe in America, many tens of millions. It's meaningful legislation here and worldwide that is needed. We are nowhere close. It's a reactionary game now.
Quoting 170. Grothar:

I'm beginning to wonder what schools I went to!!


You were the headmaster of the first schools. I was one of your first students. I forgot. You asked me to never tell anyone about that.
Quoting 170. Grothar:

I'm beginning to wonder what schools I went to!!


Gro- That's easy. In your day grades 1 through College were in a red school building.
Quoting 207. Camerooski:

As a Republican I am not worried about Hilary as her email scandal and Benghazi will be repeated over and over and it will only get worse for her. I am not worried about Bernie Sanders, for his ideas are so far left and socialist that it scares most voters from him. The only candidate that I think could beat the Republican nominee would be Joe Biden. He is trustworthy to the Americans people and isn't so far left like Bernie. But if we vote for the VP of the worst president ever (Obama) than we will see another 4 years of unemployment rates sky rocketing, more illegal immigrants and Syrian refugees taking our tax $$$, and we will see more and more debt... Tonight's debate will be a bunch of old communists fighting over who will make America worse... That wraps up my political rant. :)


Unemployment has plummeted under Obama. We lost five million jobs under Bush and two million in Obama's first two years due to him having to right the ship. Since, Obama has created over ten million jobs. Truth is always seekable, and without it we are lost.
Counter argument is rich have forty percent of American wealth and jobs created have been low paying, keeping millions of families in poverty while the middle class continues to cave. Bernie Sanders starting to look pretty good! Until you look at how he'd pay for all his ideas. #not possible. Which leaves us where? Scary.
Wow. When discussing politics things will get sticky. But remember what made the USA great was that we believed in exceptionalism. In the absence of it, we become like any other nation and no longer a leader nor a magnet for others.
Quoting 200. DeepSeaRising:



With SO few Right wing parties not acknowledging, you make a most excellent point. I at least expect that from you, I'm always rewarded when you post.

Umm guys, the Australian Liberal party are the conservative party of Australia. The Labour Party there is what yanks call liberals. Liberal, pretty much everywhere except for the US and particularly in academia does not mean someone who is soft on climate change, same sex marriage etc, but someone who feels that it is a citizens right to engage in whatever business transaction they want without government let or hindrance, that small government is good, essentially pretty much what conservatives in the US want. For instance the UK Conservative party is a bunch of economic/ political liberals.
I know this will all be confusing for most yanks but then you guys are often confused about lots of things - I say this after spending two years amongst y'all, which I really did enjoy too....
And yes, some liberals dont believe in climate change - which just goes to show that pretty much anybody can be daft.
Quoting 206. Camerooski:

Chris Christie in 2014 said that he believed the 90% of scientists that believe in climate change, Bobby Jindal agrees, Jeb Bush believes.


But what are they willing to do about it (push for solar power, getting rid of coal), nothing cause it will "ruin" the economy.
Just got on today and I thought this was a weather blog..all I hear is politics lol
What's the difference between absolute humidity and specific humidity?
Quoting 217. nygiants:

Just got on today and I thought this was a weather blog..all I hear is politics lol
Poly meaning many and ticks meaning blood-sucking parasites ;)
Quoting 192. Camerooski:
I am a very right wing conservative, however the Republican party should do more for climate change, some of the candidates this election however do believe in climate change, so its not "all" republicans...
My favorite conservative Christian climate scientist - LINK

Quoting Wikipedia:
Katharine Hayhoe, who is an evangelical Christian, is the daughter of missionaries. She has stated that admitting her life as a Christian and a scientist is "like coming out of the closet". Her father retired as the science and technology coordinator for the Toronto District School Board and is currently an associate professor of education at Tyndale University College and Seminary in Toronto. Hayhoe credits her father as an inspiration with regard to her belief that science and religion do not have to conflict with one another.

She met her husband, Andrew Farley, while doing graduate studies at the University of Illinois. Farley is a linguist and the pastor of an evangelical church in Lubbock, Texas.
Quoting 210. rmbjoe1954:

Gro- That's easy. In your day grades 1 through College were in a red school building.
Wrong. School was in the cave where he lived ;)
Tropical Cyclones usually don't affect the (Upper) Texas coast after mid-October, right?
FRI-MON...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WEAKENS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE LATE WEEK. HOWEVER ANOTHER
STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT
FROM REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY...
POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDS ESPECIALLY SUN INTO MON THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWER BANDS OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC THAT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ONSHORE.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH POPS CONTINUING TO RANGE UP TO 40-50
PERCENT. THIS ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COAST DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY. WITH THIS SETUP THERE DOES ALSO
APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE TREASURE
COAST THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

How much wind/rain/why?
Quoting 184. Geoboy645:

Ok can we stop arguing over global warming. I know the tropics are going down right now so the only thing to talk about is global warming but still stop arguing gees.



i no a topic that we can talk about what do you guys uesd too blog on here every day

me i got me my HP laptop
Quoting 106. scottsvb:



Finally why isn't Miami and other major citys under water?



Evidently, you don't live in Miami Beach.
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2015/10/09/miami-beach- residents-say-theyre-tired-of-continued-high-tide- flooding/

Means nothing to you, I'm sure, but I'm 50 and grew up with global warming. My mom is an environmental scientist (retired, now) and taught the subject for decades. I've watched things she predicted when I was a kid come true time and time again over the course of my life. Like many kids who roll their eyes at their parents' lectures and proclamations, it took me a while to gain a true appreciation for just how right she was about so many things.

American spend billions going to psychics to get a glimpse into their future, but they would do better just to ask a scientist. Scientists study the facts. In many cases, those facts can be used to predict the future. While not all scientists agree on how to interpret the data, they'll do better at predicting the future than a magic 8-ball. We may not like what they have to say, but we would be more effective at mitigating and preventing disasters if we paid attention to their warnings.

Here's some other advice from my mother: Don't build on the beachfront; don't buy a home in a floodplain; don't live in Florida (hurricanes, flooding), the desert Southwest (future water shortages), Seattle (earthquake, tsunami), or New Orleans (still at risk from hurricanes); and own a storm shelter if you live in tornado alley. I'll pass those tips on for free, no psychic fees or charges. But, people will ignore them, and eventually a lot of them will pay the price.

Cassandra stood at the gates of Troy and warned the Trojans that the Greeks' wooden horse would bring doom to their city. The Trojans didn't believe her, and their city burned. Scientists are warning us that AGW will cause tremendous upheaval and suffering if we don't address the problem quickly. If we ignore them, like the Trojans ignored Cassandra, we will pay the price (or our children will). Here's a corollary: Don't trust Greeks bearing gifts, and don't trust Big Oil or their hired hucksters to tell the truth about global warming. It's not in their self interest, see?





Quoting 222. pureet1948:

Tropical Cyclones usually don't affect the (Upper) Texas coast after mid-October, right?


Most tropical storms and hurricanes (forming in October) that move into the Gulf of Mexico usually curve northward or northeastward, and hit east of Texas.

Hurricane Jerry made landfall on Galveston Island, TX, on October 16, 1989.

It was a CAT 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85MPH.
Quoting 227. Stormwatch247:



Hurricane Jerry made landfall on Galveston Island, TX, on October 16, 1989.

It was a CAT 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85MPH.


1. I'm sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I'm talking about major (Cat 2-4) hurricanes affecting Galveston.
2. Does the GFS suggest this might be another storm like Jerry?
Will one of our frequent 10 day model posters give one for October 23 2016?
Quoting 217. nygiants:

Just got on today and I thought this was a weather blog..all I hear is politics lol


The blog topic is the major fires in Indonesia. Watching parts of the world burn somehow leads right to politics, conspiracy, economy, and religion for some people. I don't think the thousands choking to death on the smoke from these fires are worried about someone "taking their tax money". These fires and their smoke are not a belief. Why it went to politics kinda makes me sad.
231. ariot


Quoting 206. Camerooski:

Chris Christie in 2014 said that he believed the 90% of scientists that believe in climate change, Bobby Jindal agrees, Jeb Bush believes.



No matter what you would like to think, none of the GOP candidates that are polling at or just above me, a random stranger, openly accept science, much less AGW.

GOP front runners are Trump and Carson.

Christie and Jindall (a blatant creationist denier) poll just one or two percent above me.

Jeb Bush (remember his last name) is hedging on climate.

Face it, if you vote for a Republican candidate in the United States, for any position above dog catcher, you are furthering climate denial with your vote -- even if you find one who says in public it might be true every other Sunday, like old Jeb Bush.
Quoting 231. ariot:






No matter what you would like to think, none of the GOP candidates that are polling at or just above me, a random stranger, openly accept science, much less AGW.

GOP front runners are Trump and Carson.

Christie and Jindall (a blatant creationist denier) poll just one or two percent above me.

Jeb Bush (remember his last name) is hedging on climate.

Face it, if you vote for a Republican candidate in the United States, for any position above dog catcher, you are furthering climate denial with your vote -- even if you find one who says in public it might be true every other Sunday, like old Jeb Bush.
You act like if a candidate doesn't believe in climate change, that its the end of the world...
Quoting 230. wartsttocs:



The blog topic is the major fires in Indonesia. Watching parts of the world burn somehow leads right to politics, conspiracy, economy, and religion for some people. I don't think the thousands choking to death on the smoke from these fires are worried about someone "taking their tax money". These fires and their smoke are not a belief. Why it went to politics kinda makes me sad.
And how do you propose to help the situation except through political channels? The political arena is where public issues are discussed and hopefully solved. A mature approach to politics is requisite. The problem is the immature approach taken by so many commenters.

Edit: You don't have to look far down the comments to see an example.
Comment #1486 on my blog is especially for TropicalAnalystwx13. But all are welcome.
Quoting 183. SLU:

I'm conCERNed about what's HAARPening to our planet. We need to take action now before it's way too late. The climate is changing faster than we can manage.
We can't stop it
Quoting 235. gulfbreeze:

We can't stop it


So do we just give up then?
Quoting 235. gulfbreeze:

We can't stop it


Not with that attitude. :)

But seriously, the idea we cannot hope to change the course we are on is silly. Of course we can, and we can probably do it with little impact on growth. The problem is by doing that it requires massive expenditures of money and centralized planning akin to Keynesian stimulus policy and that goes deeply against the ideological beliefs of a good proportion of Americans.
Quoting 230. wartsttocs:



The blog topic is the major fires in Indonesia. Watching parts of the world burn somehow leads right to politics, conspiracy, economy, and religion for some people. I don't think the thousands choking to death on the smoke from these fires are worried about someone "taking their tax money". These fires and their smoke are not a belief. Why it went to politics kinda makes me sad.

Truthfully, the topic of the blog article, are the Indonesian Fires. The comments can be anything weather related,When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. No one's discussing anything about their tax dollars, but they are discussing how, and which presidential candidates are enforcing ways to prevent negative long term weather patterns...aka...climate change. For those on here (not you in particular) that complain about climate change discussions not being able to take place in Dr Jeff Masters Blog, and in his comments, most likely dislikes weather, or has no idea about what climate is. LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERNS DETERMINE CLIMATE, THERFORE, CLIMATE CHANGE DISCUSSIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE PLACE HERE.
Quoting 112. scottsvb:
here is 1 of many I can post from different organziations and scientists.. you all have google and can look them up.
Now I'm done.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/28/study-predicts- decades-of-global-cooling-ahead/

Quote from the article linked in the Daily Caller: The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States
Quoting 233. bappit:

And how do you propose to help the situation except through political channels? The political arena is where public issues are discussed and hopefully solved. A mature approach to politics is requisite. The problem is the immature approach taken by so many commenters.

Edit: You don't have to look far down the comments to see an example.


I think you just answered your own question.
My take is when the simple properties of molecules become a political "belief" we cannot move forward in any mature way. First we must establish the fact that molecules exist, then we have to establish that molecules have properties that exist. As long as these two things are considered beliefs I don't see a mature discussion possible. Establish might be the wrong word because these things have been established, but how do you even have a discussion with someone who thinks the properties of molecules are a belief? These fires in Indonesia are real. The molecules the combustion releases are real. The properties of those molecules are real and the effects are real.
Can you see how I feel sad when simple truths are turned into political beliefs?
Well, I see the political blog is really hoppin tonight. Lol
Quoting 238. Naga5000:



Not with that attitude. :)

But seriously, the idea we cannot hope to change the course we are on is silly. Of course we can, and we can probably do it with little impact on growth. The problem is by doing that it requires massive expenditures of money and centralized planning akin to Keynesian stimulus policy and that goes deeply against the ideological beliefs of a good proportion of Americans.


Naga - is it just Americans?
Quoting 232. Camerooski:

You act like if a candidate doesn't believe in climate change, that its the end of the world...
Bless his little heart....
Quoting 237. Bucsboltsfan:



So do we just give up then?
G/W scientist say if we stop everything related to G/W or Climate change it would not change a thing. We do not have records for more than 200 years we have no ideal what mother nature has in store for us.
246. MahFL
Quoting 235. gulfbreeze:

We can't stop it


I agree, human population growth is too fast. The best way to start to slow down climate change is actually world wide birth control, will will of course never happen.
Quoting 246. MahFL:



I agree, human population growth is too fast. The best way to start to slow down climate change is actually world wide birth control, will will of course never happen.

It will happen, or humanity will go extinct. One or the other.
Quoting 243. Bucsboltsfan:



Naga - is it just Americans?


No, it's not just Americans, but certain countries like China would have an easier time implementing a top down approach to regulations and infrastructure spending due to their political systems and ideological loyalties. Climate change mitigation is going to take a lot of effort that will make all political persuasions uncomfortable. The reality is the further we delay, the more it will cost to mitigate and the more likely we will have to deal with expensive consequences of a changing climate making the initial fear over cost moot.
Quoting 245. gulfbreeze:

G/W scientist say if we stop everything related to G/W or Climate change it would not change a thing. We do not have records for more than 200 years we have no ideal what mother nature has in store for us.


That's a bit of a misrepresentation. There are different emission scenarios:



The reliable paleoclimate record goes back quite some time, way over 200 years.

Quoting 246. MahFL:



I agree, human population growth is too fast. The best way to start to slow down climate change is actually world wide birth control, will will of course never happen.
This is true I do want to take care of mother earth I have grandchildren. Just not sure what we can do if China & India are not on board. The world makes it sound like the USA is the only country that is polluting. I know where I live the water is a lot better than it was when I was a kid. If we can just keep company's like BP from F up our Gulf.
Quoting 245. gulfbreeze:

G/W scientist say if we stop everything related to G/W or Climate change it would not change a thing. We do not have records for more than 200 years we have no ideal what mother nature has in store for us.
"Mother Nature" is not some semi-divine being hanging around out there deciding what to do next. (Can we say "metaphor"?) Climate works on the laws of physics and chemistry. No, we don't understand everything about weather and climate, but science knows enough to tell us what is most likely to happen if we keep pumping GHG's into the atmosphere. And it ain't pretty.
Quoting 250. gulfbreeze:

This is true I do want to take care of mother earth I have grandchildren. Just not sure what we can do if China & India are not on board. The world makes it sound like the USA is the only country that is polluting. I know where I live the water is a lot better than it was when I was a kid. If we can just keep company's like BP from F up our Gulf.


And the EPA. Have you seen their recent endeavors?
Quoting 218. BaltimoreBrian:

What's the difference between absolute humidity and specific humidity?
Never mind, google is my friend.
Back to T/weather is there any chance we will see anything in the Gulf in a week? In think it's to late due to the cold fronts that keep coming. But I could be wrong Gulf is still warm. Just hope we are not in for a bad winter due to El-Nino I hate cold winters!
Quoting 248. Naga5000:



No, it's not just Americans, but certain countries like China would have an easier time implementing a top down approach to regulations and infrastructure spending due to their political systems and ideological loyalties. Climate change mitigation is going to take a lot of effort that will make all political persuasions uncomfortable. The reality is the further we delay, the more it will cost to mitigate and the more likely we will have to deal with expensive consequences of a changing climate making the initial fear over cost moot.


Thx
Never mind political wisdom. Time for model doom

Interesting, at one point most south and southeast Florida had severe drought, and most of north Florida and the east coast of FL had at least moderate drought. South Florida has recovered very well and the drought is mostly gone. Only the areas that were in the severe to near extreme drought levels still have any drought left in South Florida. But again, there were significant improvements to all of South Florida.



North Florida and East Coast Florida has seen great improvement as well, everywhere except unfortunately my area in the Big Bend including Tallahassee, where drought has worsened here locally. The rain events across much of the Panhandle and North Florida basically skipped the Big Bend area.
Quoting 251. FLwolverine:

"Mother Nature" is not some semi-divine being hanging around out there deciding what to do next. (Can we say "metaphor"?) Climate works on the laws of physics and chemistry. No, we don't understand everything about weather and climate, but science knows enough to tell us what is most likely to happen if we keep pumping GHG's into the atmosphere. And it ain't pretty.
When I say Mother nature it's just another way of saying we can't say what the weather will do next week!
I believe human caused climate change is a serious problem, so it's not the science I disagree with by any means. Where I diverge with some is the politics on how to deal with it. There's no reason for me to believe that overarching government control won't be more harmful as is human pollution. No environmental regulation isn't good either of course, but we need a balance of both free market competition and regulation that helps protect against greed, but not too much regulation such that it fuels and helps produce the same powerful companies it seeks to moderate.

End political rant, and when I say end, I mean end :)
Quoting 241. wartsttocs:
I think you just answered your own question. [Yup. It was a rhetorical question.]
My take is when the simple properties of molecules become a political "belief" we cannot move forward in any mature way. First we must establish the fact that molecules exist, then we have to establish that molecules have properties that exist. As long as these two things are considered beliefs I don't see a mature discussion possible. Establish might be the wrong word because these things have been established, but how do you even have a discussion with someone who thinks the properties of molecules are a belief? These fires in Indonesia are real. The molecules the combustion releases are real. The properties of those molecules are real and the effects are real.
Can you see how I feel sad when simple truths are turned into political beliefs?
I didn't say that our national discourse is at a mature level. Unfortunately, too often appearance is reality when it comes to decision making--in either the private or public sectors. An appearance or illusion can be as persuasive as fact. Facts can be hard--not in the sense of "give me the hard facts." They take effort. They can be hard to apprehend--not because they are intellectually difficult but because they are emotionally difficult. People have preconceptions and myths that feel familiar, and they use these preconceptions and myths in their daily lives because they provide structure and feelings of security. Politicians often exploit these support systems by summoning up boogiemen and promising to protect us from those emotionally threatening images. In effect they offer emotional bribes to curry support. While reality may at times be at odds with these support systems, it does not mean that situations cannot be bettered or improved. There always are better choices and worse choices. We have to seek wisdom and strength. Fear and demoralization are the greatest enemy.

Now I feel very self conscious for posting that.
261. txjac
Quoting 225. Tazmanian:




i no a topic that we can talk about what do you guys uesd too blog on here every day

me i got me my HP laptop


Taz, you are always getting some new kind of electric device ..I need to get a job that pays like yours ...jealous here, lol
Quoting 226. gunhilda:



Evidently, you don't live in Miami Beach.
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2015/10/09/miami-beach- residents-say-theyre-tired-of-continued-high-tide- flooding/

Means nothing to you, I'm sure, but I'm 50 and grew up with global warming. My mom is an environmental scientist (retired, now) and taught the subject for decades. I've watched things she predicted when I was a kid come true time and time again over the course of my life. Like many kids who roll their eyes at their parents' lectures and proclamations, it took me a while to gain a true appreciation for just how right she was about so many things.

American spend billions going to psychics to get a glimpse into their future, but they would do better just to ask a scientist. Scientists study the facts. In many cases, those facts can be used to predict the future. While not all scientists agree on how to interpret the data, they'll do better at predicting the future than a magic 8-ball. We may not like what they have to say, but we would be more effective at mitigating and preventing disasters if we paid attention to their warnings.

Here's some other advice from my mother: Don't build on the beachfront; don't buy a home in a floodplain; don't live in Florida (hurricanes, flooding), the desert Southwest (future water shortages), Seattle (earthquake, tsunami), or New Orleans (still at risk from hurricanes); and own a storm shelter if you live in tornado alley. I'll pass those tips on for free, no psychic fees or charges. But, people will ignore them, and eventually a lot of them will pay the price.

Cassandra stood at the gates of Troy and warned the Trojans that the Greeks' wooden horse would bring doom to their city. The Trojans didn't believe her, and their city burned. Scientists are warning us that AGW will cause tremendous upheaval and suffering if we don't address the problem quickly. If we ignore them, like the Trojans ignored Cassandra, we will pay the price (or our children will). Here's a corollary: Don't trust Greeks bearing gifts, and don't trust Big Oil or their hired hucksters to tell the truth about global warming. It's not in their self interest, see?








Miami Beach Residents Say They’re Tired Of Continued High Tide Flooding
Quoting 261. txjac:



Taz, you are always getting some new kind of electric device ..I need to get a job that pays like yours ...jealous here, lol



am getting the ipad pro once its out in NOV
Quoting 196. Gearsts:

You should prepared and tell your family and friends.
Also has the low bounce around the BOC before disappearing as a 1009 mb low inland at the TX/Mex border almost five days later. Of course, that kind of data doesn't promote the "We're all gonna die" narrative some love...
Quoting 261. txjac:



Taz, you are always getting some new kind of electric device ..I need to get a job that pays like yours ...jealous here, lol
Yeah, but my old laptop has a spelling and grammar checker. :-)
Quoting 232. Camerooski:

You act like if a candidate doesn't believe in climate change, that its the end of the world...

Not the end of the world but it could help lead to the end of our worldwide complex civilization which will probably feel like the end of the world to a lot of people.
Soon-to-be typhoon Koppo should recurve east of mainland China but not before brushing Taiwan and the northern most Philippine island. This should get entwined within the westerlies. Another powerful typhoon looks to develop and recurve east of Japan. Both of these should have implications on our weather down the road.
Quoting 256. BaltimoreBrian:

Never mind political wisdom. Time for model doom


Headed right to Alabama. Florida's going to lose out on this one. I was at Walmart today, and told the manager he should be having a "CMC Pre-Hurricane sale". I'm certain he'd make a lot of money if he did. He thanked me, called security, and had me thrown out of the store. Some people are just so ungrateful.
Quoting 268. sar2401:

Headed right to Alabama. Florida's going to lose out on this one. I was at Walmart today, and told the manager he should be having a "CMC Pre-Hurricane sale". I'm certain he'd make a lot of money if he did. He thanked me, called security, and had me thrown out of the store. Some people are just so ungrateful.

You went too far, sar! ;)
Quoting 218. BaltimoreBrian:

What's the difference between absolute humidity and specific humidity?


Absolute humidity is when your wife's hair loses it curls. Specific humidity is when you failed to compliment her on her straight hair.
Quoting 269. BaltimoreBrian:


You went too far, sar! ;)
NO way! I even told him the Magic 8 Ball was on board with a hurricane hitting Alabama in 10 days. That's when he started mumbling something into the phone. I thought he was calling his managers to start cranking up the "CMC Pre-Hurricane Sale". Instead, these two goons came in and gave me the bum's rush into the parking lot. He'll be sorry when he hears the roof is peeled off his store.
How odd. Tropical tidbits shows something very different for the GFS same time same run

Quoting 270. Grothar:



Absolute humidity is when your wife's hair loses it curls. Specific humidity is when you failed to compliment her on her straight hair.


Might have made my meteorology professor laugh on my test about this on Monday but I don't think he would have given me credit.
Intersting discussion tonight. I've come to the conclusion that one of the easiest things we can all do to help offset our own carbon footprints is planting trees. Trees dont just store carbon, they also release oxygen, slow runnoff, provide shade, food and wildlife habitat etc... So please consider volunteering some time or money to tree planting. Be proactive!
Why should the older generations care about how we leave this planet? The simplest way that I can say this is that the youth of today deserve the richness of and abundance of life that we have had on this planet. When given half a chance, the youth of the world can do some very amazing things! They deserve the chance to be great in what they do. Us old folks ain't got nuthin on today's youth.
Quoting 256. BaltimoreBrian:

Never mind political wisdom. Time for model doom




What do the long term GEM and CMC have in common with politicians? They are both chocked full of long term so-called solutions that never happen, and the only people who still trust them don't analyze their past history and statistical performance :)
Quoting 262. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Miami Beach Residents Say They%u2019re Tired Of Continued High Tide Flooding

Thank you! Best stuff I've read in a while, (Oops I didn't quote the source- gunhilda. Now cannot delete. Sorry)I hope it's okay to share it on Facebook? I push climate and weather geekiness on my friends all the time, and this needs to be shared.
Quoting 279. BarometerGirl:


Thank you! Best stuff I've read in a while, I hope it's okay to share it on Facebook? I push climate and weather geekiness on my friends all the time, and this needs to be shared.


I fixed the link in gunhida's comment #226. I do not see any issues with your sharing the link, but it is not my permission that you need.
Quoting 273. BaltimoreBrian:

How odd. Tropical tidbits shows something very different for the GFS same time same run


The other one is the GFS ensemble (GEFS) showing member 1. As you'd expect from an ensemble, the other members show completely different solutions. Unless you use the NOMADS Ensemble Probability Tool to query each ensemble member to see which one is the most likely, looking at any individual ensemble member map is essentially meaningless. Any resemblance between any GEFS ensemble member and the operational GFS is purely coincidental.
Quoting 280. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I fixed the link in gunhida's comment #226. I do not see any issues with your sharing the link, but it is not my permission that you need.
I'd think it would be OK regardless since this is a public forum. Just seems like you'd need to credit WU since I'm pretty sure none of us own our posts once they're up here.
Quoting 278. Jedkins01:



What do the long term GEM and CMC have in common with politicians? They are both chocked full of long term so-called solutions that never happen, and the only people who still trust them don't analyze their past history and statistical performance :)
Hey, hey, hey. That storm is coming to Alabama, so don't be dissin' it. The Magic 8 Ball says the CMC is right and I'm going to get all the rain I want...and more. The Ball says I'll be able to start every post with "WOW!!!" in ten days, so don't try to nix my chances on this one. I haven't had a good storm to get all excited about in something like five years now. I'm getting the plywood and rubber boat ready now.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLACKEN OFF BRIEFLY
TOMORROW...BUT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING EASTERLY WIND
WILL BEGIN TO FORM ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS RISING BACK INTO THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FROM THE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOUND CURRENTLY AND THROUGH TOMORROW TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET BY
SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SOME INCREASED TIDE LEVELS ON
EASTERN FACING SHORES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

From New Orleans NWS F'cst Discussion Tue PM
I LOVE THIS POST, THANK YOU!
Quoting 226. gunhilda:



Evidently, you don't live in Miami Beach.
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2015/10/09/miami-beach- residents-say-theyre-tired-of-continued-high-tide- flooding/

Means nothing to you, I'm sure, but I'm 50 and grew up with global warming. My mom is an environmental scientist (retired, now) and taught the subject for decades. I've watched things she predicted when I was a kid come true time and time again over the course of my life. Like many kids who roll their eyes at their parents' lectures and proclamations, it took me a while to gain a true appreciation for just how right she was about so many things.

American spend billions going to psychics to get a glimpse into their future, but they would do better just to ask a scientist. Scientists study the facts. In many cases, those facts can be used to predict the future. While not all scientists agree on how to interpret the data, they'll do better at predicting the future than a magic 8-ball. We may not like what they have to say, but we would be more effective at mitigating and preventing disasters if we paid attention to their warnings.

Here's some other advice from my mother: Don't build on the beachfront; don't buy a home in a floodplain; don't live in Florida (hurricanes, flooding), the desert Southwest (future water shortages), Seattle (earthquake, tsunami), or New Orleans (still at risk from hurricanes); and own a storm shelter if you live in tornado alley. I'll pass those tips on for free, no psychic fees or charges. But, people will ignore them, and eventually a lot of them will pay the price.

Cassandra stood at the gates of Troy and warned the Trojans that the Greeks' wooden horse would bring doom to their city. The Trojans didn't believe her, and their city burned. Scientists are warning us that AGW will cause tremendous upheaval and suffering if we don't address the problem quickly. If we ignore them, like the Trojans ignored Cassandra, we will pay the price (or our children will). Here's a corollary: Don't trust Greeks bearing gifts, and don't trust Big Oil or their hired hucksters to tell the truth about global warming. It's not in their self interest, see?






Quoting 285. BarometerGirl:

I LOVE THIS POST, THANK YOU!



“It’s easy to fool someone, but it’s much harder to convince someone they’ve been fooled.”
287. vis0


leaning towards NADA as to land fall on the eastern ATL
leaning towards lots of moisture towards sar2401 (if it first heads towards Mex then towards the NNE even a spin up) in a week or so as to northern S. American-ENSO-e flow.
Find that plywood sar2401 and don't attach the plywood with rubber cement THIS time.
Quoting 115. Naga5000:



Did you even bother to read the abstract of that paper?

"These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining8 and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures4, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States"

I really do love when you guys post stuff that doesn't say what you claim it does. It is again another paper describing an impact of natural variability and how it plays into the current anthropogenic rise in global temperatures. Sigh.


Once again...A global Warming alarmist that doesn't read everything and trys ways to spill it in his favor. Yeah again, you didn't post everything where they stated they have no proof. "However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. "
Atlantic cooling can impact the climate for decades, according to researchers, on timescales from 20 to 30 years. This means cooler global temperatures and changing weather patterns could unfold over the next two to three decades, possibly extending the so-called “pause” in global warming.

For years, scientists have been debating why satellite temperature data shows there have been about 18 years with no warming trend. Surface temperature data shows a similar pause in warming for the last 10 to 15 years.

So far, the dominant explanation seems to be that oceans have absorbed a lot of the heat that would have otherwise gone into the atmosphere. And most scientists argue the world will continue warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Some scientists, however, have been arguing the world is indeed headed for a cooling phase based on solar cycles. Scientists from Germany to India have argued that weakening solar activity could bring about another “Little Ice Age.”

“The stagnation of temperature since 1998 was caused by decreasing solar activity since 1998,” wrote Jürgen Lange Heine, a physicist with the German-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE).

“From 1900 to 1998, solar radiation increased by 1.3 W / m², but since 1998 it has diminished, and could reach values ​​similar to those of the early 20th century. A drop in global temperature over the next few years is predicted,” Heine wrote.

The Virginia-based Vencore Weather recently reported that “[n]ot since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots.”

We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase,” Vencore Weather experts noted. “Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase.”
Again, I agree that we are in a cooling period with many other scientists as listed below. Others think we are still warming.. we have no real proof but it's based on our Suns Solar Activity. I'm a Met but not a climatoligist... can I be wrong about us cooling? Yes... but again, based on solar activity predictions from the space weather... I lean towards that.
Quoting 290. scottsvb:

Again, I agree that we are in a cooling period with many other scientists as listed below. Others think we are still warming.. we have no real proof but it's based on our Suns Solar Activity. I'm a Met but not a climatoligist... can I be wrong about us cooling? Yes... but again, based on solar activity predictions from the space weather... I lean towards that.


Your whole assumption is based on there not being an increasing amount of greenhouse gases being added to the atmosphere and the changing albedo of our planet's surface. You simply cannot ignore this and any Met should know this as well as any climatologist. Both studies of Science use the exact same Laws of Physics. You cannot ignore the physics involved in this.
Quoting 192. Camerooski:

I am a very right wing conservative, however the Republican party should do more for climate change, some of the candidates this election however do believe in climate change, so its not "all" republicans...
You are not old enough or rich enough to be a member of the club...stick to METs btw I enjoy your post.
Quoting 292. lat25five:

You are not old enough or rich enough to be a member of the club...stick to METs btw I enjoy your post.

The Dems have just a many "rich" folks as the Republicans.
Quoting 279. BarometerGirl:


Thank you! Best stuff I've read in a while, (Oops I didn't quote the source- gunhilda. Now cannot delete. Sorry)I hope it's okay to share it on Facebook? I push climate and weather geekiness on my friends all the time, and this needs to be shared.
Maybe the barrier islands that we build on are not meant to be built on. What an original idea.
democracts have more women than men and you know what they say about women. " They are smarter you know." Thats right! no invest in the atlantic.
Quoting 290. scottsvb:

Again, I agree that we are in a cooling period with many other scientists as listed below. Others think we are still warming.. we have no real proof but it's based on our Suns Solar Activity. I'm a Met but not a climatoligist... can I be wrong about us cooling? Yes... but again, based on solar activity predictions from the space weather... I lean towards that.
Huh? I don't see your list. Where are your "many other scientists"? Are you blowing smoke our way? Are you BSing us?

No one with any credibility today is claiming "we are in a cooling period". Stop with the infantile BS. Thanks.

And please, spend some time reading adult literature like the blog entries that Dr. Masters and Bob Henson labor over to get as correct a worldview as possible. They publish at least once a month an article about the Earth warming. Your claims to the contrary are unscientific rubbish.


Quoting 276. plantmoretrees:

Intersting discussion tonight. I've come to the conclusion that one of the easiest things we can all do to help offset our own carbon footprints is planting trees. Trees dont just store carbon, they also release oxygen, slow runnoff, provide shade, food and wildlife habitat etc... So please consider volunteering some time or money to tree planting. Be proactive!
Yes planting trees, letting the rainforest grow back, cleaning up the oceans and air, and the biggest problem, controlling overpopulation, would go a lot further to making the Earth a better place to live, than worrying about a small trace gas, that is a greenhouse gas. CO2 does contribute to the atmosphere warming but it is not the main driver, the other things especially overpopulation are the main problems. We cannot control the climate. It will become colder, warmer, drier, and wetter, we just need to learn how to adapt like the animals. I don't need to hear about how the animals are becoming extinct at an alarming rate, as it is very true and sad, but this is mostly caused by man not climate change.
Quoting 293. PensacolaDoug:

The Dems have just a many "rich" folks as the Republicans.
Another of those "facts" that isn't remotely true. According to Forbes--hardly a liberal magazine: "Of the 50 richest families [in America], 28 mainly donate to Republicans and only seven contribute mainly to Democrats." But even if it *were* true--which, again, it's not--it's perhaps not so important how much money one has, but how willing one is to spend it corrupting the democratic system. It's the ultra-wealthy in one party that pushed the disastrous and regrettable Citizens United case; it's the ultra-wealthy in one party that pushes the hardest to do away with the common-sense environmental regulations that protect our air and water and forests; it's the ultra-wealthy in one party that has spent tens of millions of dollars trying to prevent scientists from getting out the truth about the current and future ravages of climate change (Koch Bros., anyone?).
Strong system on the Euro moving east toward FL @ days 9 & 10

Quoting 296. rayduray2013:

Huh? I don't see your list. Where are your "many other scientists"? Are you blowing smoke our way? Are you BSing us?

No one with any credibility today is claiming "we are in a cooling period". Stop with the infantile BS. Thanks.

And please, spend some time reading adult literature like the blog entries that Dr. Masters and Bob Henson labor over to get as correct a worldview as possible. They publish at least once a month an article about the Earth warming. Your claims to the contrary are unscientific rubbish.




Thanks. I'll unload me guns again.
Quoting 232. Camerooski:

You act like if a candidate doesn't believe in climate change, that its the end of the world...

Fine act. Because it could actually be so. At least, that is, societies globally or the global society (which we've become).
Personally I think a point of no return has been passed already.
Look at Syria for an example of many a future to arise elsewhere this century. THIS century.
Quoting 299. StormTrackerScott:

Strong system on the Euro moving east toward FL @ days 9 & 10


Quoting 297. NativeSun:

CO2 does contribute to the atmosphere warming but it is not the main driver.
Since that opinion is almost diametrically opposite that held by the majority of educated, practicing, credible climate scientists, I think you should provide a source for it. Otherwise people might think you simply made it up based on nothing more than wishful thinking. And you wouldn't want that, right?
Quoting 297. NativeSun:

We cannot control the climate.
Again: source, please? Because virtually every bit of published science says you couldn't be more wrong. (Related question: we pump 4,000,000 tonnes of excess, heat-trapping CO2 every hour of every day, around the clock. What do you think happens to all that carbon? Where does it go? What does it do?)
Quoting 297. NativeSun:

...we just need to learn how to adapt...
So, roll over and take it like a man, huh? I dunno; that doesn't sound very patriotic.
Quoting 297. NativeSun:

I don't need to hear about how the animals are becoming extinct at an alarming rate, as it is very true and sad, but this is mostly caused by man not climate change.
You understand that climate change is being caused by man, right?
Quoting 293. PensacolaDoug:

The Dems have just a many "rich" folks as the Republicans.


Really? I don't think so but hey, its a "commie" newspaper so I don't expect some in here to read it.

Who is funding the race to the White House

The shame of it is that ALL of us let this happen!
Quoting 304. capeflorida:



Really? I don't think so but hey, its a "commie" newspaper so I don't expect some in here to read it.

Who is funding the race to the White House

The shame of it is that ALL of us let this happen!
Nobody can out "give away" the dems. It's easy to give away other peoples money. They ought to lead by example and give away their own first.
Quoting 299. StormTrackerScott:

Strong system on the Euro moving east toward FL @ days 9 & 10


Can you smell what the EURO is cooking?
The politics of weather aside, the Atlantic Basin is clear today, except for the Caribbean monsoon area headed into Central America, and the Pacific continues to generate storms; pretty amazing to continue to see so much activity there thanks to El Nino:






The lowest shear area on the Atlantic side of things at the moment is the Gulf but there is nothing there to develop:




Getting very dry in C FL.
Arguing with a liberals and getting your point across is like herding cats, it ain't gonna happen, that's just the way their wired, it's their way or the highway, their mostly nice people, but they live in a etopia world, and only belive their way is the right way, everything and everyone is wrong. Don't waste your time, just consentrate on tropical weather, we'll all be better off for it.
NASA's GEOS-5, for the last 3 runs, has gone with a route that crosses and is all over Central America.

Has a storm pulling together at 90hrs, nearly in the EPAC.



Today's run splits it into 2 storms, one on each side of Central America, with very heavy rains. This area has suffered with landslides and such recently. This would be really bad for them.


Toward the end of the run the EPAC storm is pulled over Mexico and into the Atlantic side one, consolidates and moves toward that loop eddy in the Gulf of Mexico. Check out the storm in the West Atlantic from a trough & a T-wave. Some runs it's there others it's not. That one seems a little less decided.
I will make one comment related to the politics of weather; I doubt that there are many wealthy folks who follow this Blog and one of the shames of current America is that the poor and working class (many of us on here) are actually pawns in a larger game in which the deck is stacked against us. And the folks who actually control the wealth throw us a bone every often (a general election) giving us the illusion of Democracy while they fire up the little people with slogans like liberal, conservative, commie, etc. when most people don't even actually have a clue as to origins of those words and what they actually mean. (and note that this happens in all of the world and not just in America).

Climate change and global warming, even when we have a majority body of the scientific community constantly warning abut the causes and impacts (and need for mitigation efforts), has also become politicized along with the forces that spend millions of dollars to try to spin the science (and we rant and rave back and forth on here).

As one of the great philosophers said, "If you think education is expensive, try ignorance"....................
Quoting 310. trunkmonkey:

Arguing with a liberals and getting your point across is like herding cats, it ain't gonna happen, that's just the way their wired, it's their way or the highway, their mostly nice people, but they live in a etopia world, and only belive their way is the right way, everything and everyone is wrong. Don't waste your time, just consentrate on tropical weather, we'll all be better off for it.
maybe we just dont want to live under a religious theocracy. thats about all i hear from so called conservatives these days. christian sharia law. they demand it. talk about my way or the highway.
Sorry for the double post...............Here are shear levels in the Pacific:

Quoting 299. StormTrackerScott:

Strong system on the Euro moving east toward FL @ days 9 & 10




I hope if any storm does develop it could wait until I return from Nashville conference on Oct 23rd.
Quoting 288. scottsvb:



Once again...A global Warming alarmist that doesn't read everything and trys ways to spill it in his favor. Yeah again, you didn't post everything where they stated they have no proof. "However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. "


Umm...bud, you posted the article that linked to the paper you didn't read. I'm pretty sure you don't understand how to read scientific papers. Again that paper supports AGW which you seem to not get.
I find it funny that the supposed "political debate on climate change" here is just a bunch of attacks and generalizations about liberals. Not one has attempted to address actual science. It goes to show exactly why science rejection is highly predicted by personal ideological belief systems regardless of the body of scientific evidence.
Quoting 314. intampa:

maybe we just dont want to live under a religious theocracy. thats about all i hear from so called conservatives these days. christian sharia law. they demand it. talk about my way or the highway.
What a load. Complete and utter.
Quoting 319. PensacolaDoug:

What a load. Complete and utter.


Much like post 293 and 305, rife with over-generalizations and attacks on others. Playing to the base nativism of simple minded folks.
Freakshow crossover system in the GOMEX on the 0z ECMWF.
Quoting 312. tampabaymatt:




Was that a tropical system off the California coast at one point?
Quoting 320. Naga5000:



Much like post 293 and 305, rife with over-generalizations and attacks on others. Playing to the base nativism of simple minded folks.
An overgeneralization? The debate last night was about who could give away the most stuff to everybody except Our veterans.
Quoting 322. Emancipator:



Was that a tropical system off the California coast at one point?


No, upper level low.
Quoting 323. PensacolaDoug:

An overgeneralization? The debate last night was about who could give away the most stuff to everybody except Our veterans.



That's an interesting takeaway. I would imagine someone as America loving as yourself would want to do anything to help all Americans regardless of the cost, but it seems like your patriotism and empathy stops at arbitrary places and when money is involved. I would say that isn't really patriotic at all. Besides that, your position lacks a basic understanding of inequality. I really expect no other takeaway from your perspective. Everyone is just a taker, a moocher, but especially those you don't like or have demonized as lazy or undeserving to justify your lack of aforementioned empathy for fellow Americans.

Quoting 325. Naga5000:



That's an interesting takeaway. I would imagine someone as America loving as yourself would want to do anything to help all Americans regardless of the cost, but it seems like your patriotism and empathy stops at arbitrary places and when money is involved. I would say that isn't really patriotic at all. Besides that, your position lacks a basic understanding of inequality. I really expect no other takeaway from your perspective. Everyone is just a taker, a moocher, but especially those you don't like or have demonized as lazy or undeserving to justify your lack of aforementioned empathy for fellow Americans.





I worked in the ghetto for 38 years as a firefighter emt, I fully understand unequally of the taxpayer! You all needed to spend one shift with me, it will change your minds, oh, by the
Way, the reason I worked in those neighborhoods was a choice, most of those folks had better things than I did, still didn't stop me from helping the small percentage that truly needed my help.
Quoting 326. trunkmonkey:




I worked in the ghetto for 38 years as a firefighter emt, I fully understand unequally of the taxpayer! You all needed to spend one shift with me, it will change your minds, oh, by the
Way, the reason I worked in those neighborhoods was a choice, most of those folks had better things than I did, still didn't stop me from helping the small percentage that truly needed my help.


Thanks for the great look at nativity in action. I have done lots of work in underprivileged areas as well, and somehow it didn't push me towards othering those people or killing my empathy for them. It seems like you are more concerned with where you stand in comparison to others rather than if you have enough. I'm done with these conversations as they are truly pointless.
328. OCF
Quoting 324. tampabaymatt:


No, upper level low.

The very same ULL that came through Southern California about 10 days ago, which has done a full circle to the south and is back for a second round. Will we get rain? Maybe, maybe not. The NWS forecast for the next couple of days is as hedged, conditional and uncertain as they can write it.

Early morning conditions in Long Beach: temperature 75, dew point 70. That kind of dew point is very strange to us - it's usually a lot drier than that here.
I just have one question
Does the people on here that push the Global Warming Theory Live by that.
Ride a bike to work
Live off the grid
Spend their off time planting trees ect ect
Instead of trying to convince a non believer try convincing someone that does believe in Global warming to actually live what they preach.

Quoting 328. OCF:


The very same ULL that came through Southern California about 10 days ago, which has done a full circle to the south and is back for a second round. Will we get rain? Maybe, maybe not. The NWS forecast for the next couple of days is as hedged, conditional and uncertain as they can write it.

Early morning conditions in Long Beach: temperature 75, dew point 70. That kind of dew point is very strange to us - it's usually a lot drier than that here.


Wow, it's not every day that Southern Cal has a higher dew point than Tampa, FL, no matter what time of the year.
Quoting 327. Naga5000:



Thanks for the great look at nativity in action. I have done lots of work in underprivileged areas as well, and somehow it didn't push me towards othering those people or killing my empathy for them. It seems like you are more concerned with where you stand in comparison to others rather than if you have enough. I'm done with these conversations as they are truly pointless.


I'm coming to believe that a basic lack of empathy is what's driving this partisan ideological nonsense. A basic inability to put yourself in the shoes of others. Anyone who disagrees with you is necessarily defective in some way.

So that drives climate change, since the greatest effects are largely being felt elsewhere *so far*. If you're not a polar bear, or a Maldives Islander, or a resident of the Lower Ninth, or a climatologist, or whatever, then all this "global warming" talk is just mumbo jumbo from inherently unreliable and suspicious people who must have it out for you since they're not exactly like you.
NW Florida is getting very dry again, hopefully we can survive until the winter time El Nino rains arrive. Dewpoint is currently 57, pretty low for NW Florida and looks like it will be dry for quite a bit longer.
Quoting 329. blueyedbiker:

I just have one question
Does the people on here that push the Global Warming Theory Live by that.
Ride a bike to work
Live off the grid
Spend their off time planting trees ect ect
Instead of trying to convince a non believer try convincing someone that does believe in Global warming to actually live what they preach.




No, it's probably the deniers who are buying electric vehicles, LED light blubs, and solar panels; and doing things like telecomuting or biking, recycling, and supporting Bernie Sanders.
Why do they put $ signs at end of discussion?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
NNNN
Quoting 329. blueyedbiker:

I just have one question
Does the people on here that push the Global Warming Theory Live by that.
Ride a bike to work
Live off the grid
Spend their off time planting trees ect ect
Instead of trying to convince a non believer try convincing someone that does believe in Global warming to actually live what they preach.



Well I am not a "pusher" lol, but i do use led light bulbs, try to recharge most of my rechargable batteries by solar and one of the reasons i like living where i do now is our electricity is by a biomass generation plant
edit: I do plant trees although i am kinda in the woods lol.
Quoting 329. blueyedbiker:

I just have one question
Does the people on here that push the Global Warming Theory Live by that.
Ride a bike to work
Live off the grid
Spend their off time planting trees ect ect
Instead of trying to convince a non believer try convincing someone that does believe in Global warming to actually live what they preach.





As someone who accepts the germ theory of disease, do you self quarantine to prevent the spread of dangerous germs? Do you sanitize your belongings and burn potentially infected clothing? Or do you do the best you can with the resources you have to try and not get everyone around you sick?
Looks like we're gonna be getting some monsoon weather in South Florida beginning on Friday. Ugh... just when I started enjoying the not as punishing sun of October.
When all the poor/working/middle class are killed off by the social/economic unrest that comes with runaway climate change and only the super rich are left, will they be able to handle the vast, vast reduction in their standard of living as all those people "below" them no longer exist to provide the goods and services that they crave?
Quoting 337. Naga5000:




As someone who accepts the germ theory of disease, do you self quarantine to prevent the spread of dangerous germs? Do you sanitize your belongings and burn potentially infected clothing? Or do you do the best you can with the resources you have to try and not get everyone around you sick?

I didn't know I accepted any theory
Im more concerned the state our nation is now in
Open Borders
Deficit
Unemployment
Healthcare
I ccan honestly say my biggest fear for my kids and grandchildren isn't if they will have to swim to school
Its will this country on its current path still be a nation that they can be proud of.
While some worry about water encroaching our coastline cities I am more concerned of terrorist being openly invited to envade our country.
Cant see the rising waters if you don't have your head on your shoulders.
Good morning all!

I haven't wished for a hurricane since I was a kid in school hoping to get a vacation but it would sure do this blog some good. The worst part of "Hurricane days" back in the day was that we had to make them up in the Summer and there was no A/C in any schools that I attended.

The tides are finally abating a bit here after 20 days of street flooding.
I'm kinda bored. lol Lets see, i don't bike to work (i don't work anymore - except for the wife's very long list) but i do like to ride, in fact i resurrected my old Colnago road bike, getting tired of the mountain bike, and i do recycle
When i was working i would have liked to bike there but some of the area's (Delray) by work were pretty bad - like constantly watching while driving there.
edit: oh the weather lol, it's only gonna be in the upper 40's Fri ~ Sun with lows in the 20's, good thing it's warming up a little after that!!!
344. NNYer
Seems like we push the boundaries of the rules of the road around here quite a bit. Link

Vigorous discussions about science using scientifically sourced information certainly make sense. Opinion fights are useless and a waste of time to read. Please ignore these folks instead of feeding them. They will never change their opinions. Reposting and commenting on this stuff just takes up disk space!
Quoting 338. ElConando:

Looks like we're gonna be getting some monsoon weather in South Florida beginning on Friday. Ugh... just when I started enjoying the not as punishing sun of October.


We could use the rain to wash away the accumulated salt!
Quoting 311. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5, for the last 3 runs, has gone with a route that crosses and is all over Central America.

Has a storm pulling together at 90hrs, nearly in the EPAC.



Today's run splits it into 2 storms, one on each side of Central America, with very heavy rains. This area has suffered with landslides and such recently. This would be really bad for them.


Toward the end of the run the EPAC storm is pulled over Mexico and into the Atlantic side one, consolidates and moves toward that loop eddy in the Gulf of Mexico. Check out the storm in the West Atlantic from a trough & a T-wave. Some runs it's there others it's not. That one seems a little less decided.

If that were to happen, it can be dangerous..Like Opal in 1995.
Quoting 329. blueyedbiker:

I just have one question
Does the people on here that push the Global Warming Theory Live by that.
Ride a bike to work
Live off the grid
Spend their off time planting trees ect ect
Instead of trying to convince a non believer try convincing someone that does believe in Global warming to actually live what they preach.





The main idea is to switch to alternative forms of energy, as opposed to be lacking in energy. Nevertheless, I almost always walk or ride a bicycle instead of driving. I rent, so I don't get to choose the source of power where I live. To plant trees would be a very ineffective way for me to deal with this problem.

The most effective way for me to deal with this problem, as I see it, is to deal with the lies and misinformation (that have duped so many) and the resistance that a lot of people have to making meaningful changes collectively, especially by governments. I recommend not trying to excuse oneself based on what others are or are not doing.

If someone else is living off the grid, never driving a car, and planting trees, then a person who prefers no action might say "see, it's too hard to deal with this problem, and not worth it for me". However, if someone else is doing none of those things, but admits that global warming is a serious problem, then a person who prefers no action might say "see, they aren't taking appropriate action personally, therefore I don't support any kind of meaningful action".

The first step is to recognize that global warming is a serious problem, and to reject the relevant misinformation and lies that are promoted by those who reject climate science. If (hypothetically) a person hasn't even reached that step yet, then I think that such a person isn't in a position to question those who are past that and are urging meaningful and effective action.
Quoting 334. pingon:

Why do they put $ signs at end of discussion?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
NNNN



TEXT PRODUCT FORMATS AND CODES

5.8 End of Product or Product Segment Code (Double Dollar [$$]). The double dollar ($$)
is used to end the Content Block of a non-segmented product and to end the Content Block
of each segment of a segmented product. This includes those products that do not use the
UGC.

Note: The $$ should be on its own line, left justified, and followed immediately by an end of
line (). A blank line should precede and follow the $$ (if other information
is presented after it).
6
Quoting 347. DCSwithunderscores:




The main idea is to switch to alternative forms of energy, as opposed to be lacking in energy. Nevertheless, I almost always walk or ride a bicycle instead of driving. I rent, so I don't get to choose the source of power where I live. To plant trees would be a very ineffective way for me to deal with this problem.

The most effective way for me to deal with this problem, as I see it, is to deal with the lies and misinformation (that have duped so many) and the resistance that a lot of people have to making meaningful changes collectively, especially by governments. I recommend not trying to excuse oneself based on what others are or are not doing.

If someone else is living off the grid, never driving a car, and planting trees, then a person who prefers no action might say "see, it's too hard to deal with this problem, and not worth it for me". However, if someone else is doing none of those things, but admits that global warming is a serious problem, then a person who prefers no action might say "see, they aren't taking appropriate action personally, therefore I don't support any kind of meaningful action".

The first step is to recognize that global warming is a serious problem, and to reject the relevant misinformation and lies that are promoted by those who reject climate science. If (hypothetically) a person hasn't even reached that step yet, then I think that such a person isn't in a position to question those who are past that and are urging meaningful and effective action.


This comment is classic. So, if I understand correctly, you are stating that other than riding your bike as a form of transportation, you are not doing anything to lower your carbon footprint. So, your main approach to doing something about it is "to deal with the lies and misinformation (that have duped so many) and the resistance that a lot of people have to making meaningful changes collectively". What exactly does that mean?

The one thing that you (and others) are missing is that by coming on this blog and responding to people who don't believe that global warming is happening, you are accomplishing exactly nothing to combat the thing you are so passionately trying to convince strangers on the internet is happening.

Until there is mass policy change at the levels of the highest government, none of us can do anything of impact to stop global warming. But, don't fool yourself into thinking that commenting on a blog makes you some sort of activist.
Quoting 350. tampabaymatt:



This comment is classic. So, if I understand correctly, you are stating that other than riding your bike as a form of transportation, you are not doing anything to lower your carbon footprint. So, your main approach to doing something about it is "to deal with the lies and misinformation (that have duped so many) and the resistance that a lot of people have to making meaningful changes collectively". What exactly does that mean?

The one thing that you (and others) are missing is that by coming on this blog and responding to people who don't believe that global warming is happening, you are accomplishing exactly nothing to combat the thing you are so passionately trying to convince strangers on the internet is happening.

Until there is mass policy change at the levels of the highest government, none of us can do anything of impact to stop global warming. But, don't fool yourself into thinking that commenting on a blog makes you some sort of activist.


Internet Slactivism has always been a thing.
Quoting 350. tampabaymatt:



This comment is classic. So, if I understand correctly, you are stating that other than riding your bike as a form of transportation, you are not doing anything to lower your carbon footprint. So, your main approach to doing something about it is "to deal with the lies and misinformation (that have duped so many) and the resistance that a lot of people have to making meaningful changes collectively". What exactly does that mean?

The one thing that you (and others) are missing is that by coming on this blog and responding to people who don't believe that global warming is happening, you are accomplishing exactly nothing to combat the thing you are so passionately trying to convince strangers on the internet is happening.

Until there is mass policy change at the levels of the highest government, none of us can do anything of impact to stop global warming. But, don't fool yourself into thinking that commenting on a blog makes you some sort of activist.

Very well said,
Oh boy, here we go again...

Looks like snow is coming to Northern Maine this weekend...but with as warm as it's been, the leaves are still mostly on the trees! If the snow load reaches a certain point, it could make for bad impacts on the electrical lines...any snow probably won't last long as the warm air returns.

The new buzzword in the infrastructure world is resiliency. Many public works entities are looking to evaluate and re-engineer their infrastructure to handle higher temperatures of pavements, greater flows in storm sewers, and greater protection from flood events. All brought to you by the experts and engineers who understand where we are heading and the damage and risks we already are seeing for the past few decades. Nobody wants a plane to land at an airport with melted soft pavement or flooded tarmacs. Most major metropolitan areas seem to embrace the concept of Resiliency...but not all. These organizations have no doubts that the current effects will increase rather than go away. I don't know of a single Public Works director worrying about whether their infrastructure can take it getting colder or dryer...
355. 7544
Quoting 353. FunnelVortex:

Oh boy, here we go again...




yep any mr trofs on the way where will head from there ?
Quoting 353. FunnelVortex:

Oh boy, here we go again...




good news big High out E and a low out W am hoping we can get this mid OCT heat wave out of here
Quoting 350. tampabaymatt:



This comment is classic. So, if I understand correctly, you are stating that other than riding your bike as a form of transportation, you are not doing anything to lower your carbon footprint. So, your main approach to doing something about it is "to deal with the lies and misinformation (that have duped so many) and the resistance that a lot of people have to making meaningful changes collectively". What exactly does that mean?

The one thing that you (and others) are missing is that by coming on this blog and responding to people who don't believe that global warming is happening, you are accomplishing exactly nothing to combat the thing you are so passionately trying to convince strangers on the internet is happening.

Until there is mass policy change at the levels of the highest government, none of us can do anything of impact to stop global warming. But, don't fool yourself into thinking that commenting on a blog makes you some sort of activist.


I was responding specifically to the 3 questions that the other poster had asked, with respect to personally reducing ones carbon footprint. The fact that I rarely drive (but don't plant trees) is not an indication that that is the only thing that I am doing to have a reduced carbon footprint. In fact it is not the only thing.

With respect to dealing with misinformation and lies, if you are assuming that blogs are the only means for my doing this, you would be mistaken. Regardless, a lot of readers of these blog comments who may not post have the capability to at least realize which comments about global warming have merit and which do not. A lot of people aren't ideologically driven in their opinion of climate science, but just need to be educated.

People have informed me that they have changed their views to be more aligned with climate science. The first step is for people to recognize the seriousness of the problem, and to be in favor of taking appropriate action collectively.

Another thing that we can do is to make action on climate change a priority when voting, and I am doing that in my country.

By the way, I don't consider myself to be an activist. I more deal with science than with solutions. Also, I don't try to convince people. I try to present correct information, and people can do with it as they choose.
Thank You! couldn't find anything explaining it.

Quoting 348. nrtiwlnvragn:




TEXT PRODUCT FORMATS AND CODES

5.8 End of Product or Product Segment Code (Double Dollar [$$]). The double dollar ($$)
is used to end the Content Block of a non-segmented product and to end the Content Block
of each segment of a segmented product. This includes those products that do not use the
UGC.

Note: The $$ should be on its own line, left justified, and followed immediately by an end of
line (). A blank line should precede and follow the $$ (if other information
is presented after it).
6
Good morning all! Politics and judgement on a weather blog...gotta love it! I'll put in my two cents quickly! To each and every one of,you who has determined that "liberal" or "conservative" are curse words, let me just say that you all have become the worst nightmare of each and every founding father of the United States! Don't believe me? Check out Federalist Paper #10! Until the turn of this past century, governing depended upon rational compromise and leaders were much more concerned with the good of the country instead of a the desires of the fringe! Now, we are being governed at gunpoint - do,what we want or we will close things down! Yep, every Founding Father's worst nightmare!
I've enjoyed some of the comments this morning despite the naysayers.... Proud tree-planter here -- over 100 palms and woody trees on my quarter-acre lot, in just six years. My tallest woody tree is now at 35 feet. Our community recycles. I work from home F/T.

Don't tell me tree-planting can't make a difference: Everyone knows trees are made of carbon, but people forget about the albedo effect -- trees are a great way to cut off hot summer sun from roofs, asphalt and parking lots, reducing local heat that otherwise fosters urban heat islands (and raises your summer electricity costs).

For those living in rentals or situations where tree planting at home is not practical, community or wildlife planting groups are a good outlet, as are the hunger-relief organizations that have finally begun to see the value of including tree planting. Heifer Project International will give crop-producing trees to poor villagers, as will Episcopal Relief. You can be part of that via a simple donation.

We can, indeed, make a difference.
361. MahFL
Quoting 330. tampabaymatt:



Wow, it's not every day that Southern Cal has a higher dew point than Tampa, FL, no matter what time of the year.


"AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST...BRINGING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY."
Quoting 354. SkiDestructor:

Looks like snow is coming to Northern Maine this weekend...but with as warm as it's been, the leaves are still mostly on the trees! If the snow load reaches a certain point, it could make for bad impacts on the electrical lines...any snow probably won't last long as the warm air returns.

The new buzzword in the infrastructure world is resiliency. Many public works entities are looking to evaluate and re-engineer their infrastructure to handle higher temperatures of pavements, greater flows in storm sewers, and greater protection from flood events. All brought to you by the experts and engineers who understand where we are heading and the damage and risks we already are seeing for the past few decades. Nobody wants a plane to land at an airport with melted soft pavement or flooded tarmacs. Most major metropolitan areas seem to embrace the concept of Resiliency...but not all. These organizations have no doubts that the current effects will increase rather than go away. I don't know of a single Public Works director worrying about whether their infrastructure can take it getting colder or dryer...


Cold remains a problem even though the world is warming as a whole. Ask residents of Northeastern MN, northern WI and the MI UP, about those pipes that froze eight feet down in Feb/March 2014. In the DC area, both cold and heat can disrupt our rail service as tracks contract/expand and crack. There are many other examples, my two are like sticking my thumb in the haystack and coming out with two needles.

Quoting 359. ProphetessofDoom:

Good morning all! Politics and judgement on a weather blog...gotta love it! I'll put in my two cents quickly! To each and every one of,you who has determined that "liberal" or "conservative" are curse words, let me just say that you all have become the worst nightmare of each and every founding father of the United States! Don't believe me? Check out Federalist Paper #10! Until the turn of this past century, governing depended upon rational compromise and leaders were much more concerned with the good of the country instead of a the desires of the fringe! Now, we are being governed at gunpoint - do,what we want or we will close things down! Yep, every Founding Father's worst nightmare!


We have become two countries and no one in sight to draw us together and unify us.
Does this say what I think it says? The trusted European model is calling for a system to develop in the gulf on the 24th? Can somebody help out a rookie here...
Quoting 353. FunnelVortex:

Oh boy, here we go again...


Quoting 246. MahFL:



I agree, human population growth is too fast. The best way to start to slow down climate change is actually world wide birth control, will will of course never happen.


It has already happened in most first world countries which will soon have trouble MAINTAINING population levels in the distant future (U.S) without immigration or are already looking at shrinking populations in the near future (much of Europe, Japan and South Korea). The situation in Japan and Korea is especially alarming with their populations likely halved every 40 years unless demographics change. The problem is less urgent in the U.S. than in most other first world countries. This outcome was absolutely unforseen a century ago.

The above paragraph is not meant to imply that exponentially increasing global population (doubling time less than 40 years!!) does not remain an enormous problem and much more fundamentally worse than the first world effect above
Quoting 357. DCSwithunderscores:



I was responding specifically to the 3 questions that the other poster had asked, with respect to personally reducing ones carbon footprint. The fact that I rarely drive (but don't plant trees) is not an indication that that is the only thing that I am doing to have a reduced carbon footprint. In fact it is not the only thing.

With respect to dealing with misinformation and lies and resistance to making meaningful changes, if you are assuming that blogs are the only means for my doing this, you would be mistaken. Regardless, a lot of readers of these blog comments who may not post have the capability to at least realize which comments about global warming have merit and which do not. A lot of people aren't ideologically driven in their opinion of climate science, but just need to be educated.

People have informed me that they have changed their views to be more aligned with climate science. The first step is for people to recognize the seriousness of the problem, and to be in favor of taking appropriate action collectively.

Another thing that we can do is to make action on climate change a priority when voting, and I am doing that in my country.

By the way, I don't consider myself to be an activist. I more deal with science than with solutions. Also, I don't try to convince people. I try to present correct information, and people can do with it as they choose.


I have yet to see one person on this blog who is on either side of the global warming debate change their viewpoint based on a discussion that occurred on here. That’s not to say it’s never happened, but the typical outcome is a back and forth that leads nowhere and usually ends with insults and/or bullying. I don’t see how that accomplishes a single thing for either party’s cause.

Global warming is a political afterthought in the US. Our current president has made a few feeble attempts to bring it more to the forefront, but since he has exhibited zero ability to get anything through a divided Congress, essentially nothing has been done that would lead to significant impacts. I don’t expect this to change during the next election, for a variety of reasons. So, think about it, we’re not even at the point where legislation that has a prayer of passing Congress is being proposed. Even if we were at that point, the change in infrastructure that is required to alter how a bazillion people obtain energy would take decades to accomplish.

I would love to see something change, but I’m a realist and politics in the US is more or less a broken system. Those in power don’t care about global warming because they won’t be around to deal with its impacts. We have very few people in this country who are smart enough and driven enough to do something about this.
Quoting 342. ChillinInTheKeys:

Good morning all!

I haven't wished for a hurricane since I was a kid in school hoping to get a vacation but it would sure do this blog some good. The worst part of "Hurricane days" back in the day was that we had to make them up in the Summer and there was no A/C in any schools that I attended.

The tides are finally abating a bit here after 20 days of street flooding.
A good hurricane, might be , just what Florida Bay needs, to help eradicate the problem with Sea Grass loss.
Quoting 364. adjusterjh:

Does this say what I think it says? The trusted European model is calling for a system to develop in the gulf on the 24th? Can somebody help out a rookie here...



Not sure it will form. It showed a cat 1 earlier this season forming in the western gulf but we just got a sheared invest.
Quoting 291. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Your whole assumption is based on there not being an increasing amount of greenhouse gases being added to the atmosphere and the changing albedo of our planet's surface. You simply cannot ignore this and any Met should know this as well as any climatologist. Both studies of Science use the exact same Laws of Physics. You cannot ignore the physics involved in this.


I think it is a waste of your time responding to ScottVB's false statements. He just makes them up as he goes along or quotes Faux News or WSJ stories based on the statements of a biologist somewhere (not a climate scientist but a scientist of some sort) so it looks real.
Quoting 244. aquak9:

Bless his little heart....


Aqua.. Ima southern Boy and understand that lil' sayin. well played
Quoting 366. tampabaymatt:



I have yet to see one person on this blog who is on either side of the global warming debate change their viewpoint based on a discussion that occurred on here. That’s not to say it’s never happened, but the typical outcome is a back and forth that leads nowhere and usually ends with insults and/or bullying. I don’t see how that accomplishes a single thing for either party’s cause.

Global warming is a political afterthought in the US. Our current president has made a few feeble attempts to bring it more to the forefront, but since he has exhibited zero ability to get anything through a divided Congress, essentially nothing has been done that would lead to significant impacts. I don’t expect this to change during the next election, for a variety of reasons. So, think about it, we’re not even at the point where legislation that has a prayer of passing Congress is being proposed. Even if we were at that point, the change in infrastructure that is required to alter how a bazillion people obtain energy would take decades to accomplish.

I would love to see something change, but I’m a realist and politics in the US is more or less a broken system. Those in power don’t care about global warming because they won’t be around to deal with its impacts. We have very few people in this country who are smart enough and driven enough to do something about this.



I'm with you here. I actually tried to convince friends of mine who are dedicated GOP supporters about the reality of climate change/global warming and got nowhere no matter what evidence I presented it but refuted it with the no it isn't argument. I believe someone posted the argument sketch from Monty Python a while back. It felt exactly like that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y
Moving away from a global fossil fuel based economy, which has been in place for over 100 years now, is going to take just as long to turn-around to move in a positive manner in the other direction..............It's the Titanic analogy at this point; we have reached the iceberg (not ice age)  and have to start to make the turn to avoid the maximum impact.............The longer we wait on the turn, the more damage downstream............Now try fitting that analogy into 4 year election cycles as people continue to kick the can...................... 
Quoting 348. nrtiwlnvragn:




TEXT PRODUCT FORMATS AND CODES

5.8 End of Product or Product Segment Code (Double Dollar [$$]). The double dollar ($$)
is used to end the Content Block of a non-segmented product and to end the Content Block
of each segment of a segmented product. This includes those products that do not use the
UGC.

Note: The $$ should be on its own line, left justified, and followed immediately by an end of
line (). A blank line should precede and follow the $$ (if other information
is presented after it).
6


Thanks for this nrtiwlnvragn, I was beginning to feel guilty for not "donating" every time I read the discussion and saw the $$ sign. :-]
Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

Moving away from a global fossil fuel based economy, which has been in place for over 100 years now, is going to take just as long to turn-around to move in a positive manner in the other direction..............It's the Titanic analogy at this point; we have reached the iceberg (not ice age)  and have to start to make the turn to avoid the maximum impact.............The longer we wait on the turn, the more damage downstream............Now try fitting that analogy into 4 year election cycles as people continue to kick the can...................... 


Even if we cut our emissions China and India are still a problem.

But I personally think its too late.

Now the permafrost up north is melting and releasing all that methane.

We missed our chance.
Quoting 375. FunnelVortex:



Even if we cut our emissions China and India are still a problem.

But I personally think its too late.

Now the permafrost up north is melting and releasing all that methane.

We missed our chance.
Good morning F.V. Its not too late. By cutting emissions, there are many benefits to reap, even if warming continues at a exponential rate... China and India are shifting toward renewable and alternative energy sources, as are many other countries...I should mention the fusion will be here sooner than expected, and may be a significant factor where how much solar will be required to meet demand.
Quoting 363. NSB207:



We have become two countries and no one in sight to draw us together and unify us.
Our system of government would work if it were not corrupted...It is supposed to work for the common good of its people. GFS sills shows the stalled east/west front over the gulf region. Would make for an interesting scenario if something tropical were to move into it.



Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

Moving away from a global fossil fuel based economy, which has been in place for over 100 years now, is going to take just as long to turn-around to move in a positive manner in the other direction..............It's the Titanic analogy at this point; we have reached the iceberg (not ice age)  and have to start to make the turn to avoid the maximum impact.............The longer we wait on the turn, the more damage downstream............Now try fitting that analogy into 4 year election cycles as people continue to kick the can...................... 


Actually if the Titanic had not started the turn, it probably would have hit the iceberg head on, breached the forward two bow compartments only and survived. Instead the iceberg tore a strip along the side of the ship flooding the forward five compartments which made its foundering certain.
Sorry to interrupt.

Quoting 375. FunnelVortex:



Even if we cut our emissions China and India are still a problem.

But I personally think its too late.

Now the permafrost up north is melting and releasing all that methane.

We missed our chance.


While I agree that it's too late to avoid a lot of the consequences of AGW, we can at least cut down on the sheer amount of "stuff" hitting the fan later on if we as a species start to make meaningful changes ASAP.
Quoting 371. indianrivguy:



Aqua.. Ima southern Boy and understand that lil' sayin. well played
Greetings I.R.G..Being from Florida has its pluses to be sure. Many people do not even know where to go to see the most beautiful parts of the state...Many folks try to keep them a secret, so not to ruin them...:)....I know a few myself that I have only told very few people about.
Quoting 378. georgevandenberghe:



Actually if the Titanic had not started the turn, it probably would have hit the iceberg head on, breached the forward two bow compartments only and survived. Instead the iceberg tore a strip along the side of the ship flooding the forward five compartments which made its foundering certain.

Yep...And there is no sense in continued pollution either. Oil did its job well during the industrial age...its time to move on..
Quoting 376. hydrus:

Good morning F.V. Its not too late. By cutting emissions, there are many benefits to reap, even if warming continues at a exponential rate... China and India are shifting toward renewable and alternative energy sources, as are many other countries...I should mention the fusion will be here sooner than expected, and may be a significant factor where how much solar will be required to meet demand.


I agree we should still clean out the air so we can breath clean air, but with the methane being added I don't think we can prevent AGW's Meteorlogical effects.

All we can really do is try to lessen them by cutting emissions and planting trees.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015


Excerpt:

THIS WILL BRING AN ERODING END TO THIS PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THAT SHOULD INCLUDE SOME EARLY SEASON SNOW THREAT OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN US...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MDT-HEAVIER WEEKEND SNOW FOR NRN MAINE.





Heads up KOG
Quoting 384. FunnelVortex:



I agree we should still clean out the air so we can breath clean air, but with the methane being added I don't think we can prevent AGW's Meteorlogical effects.

All we can really do is try to lessen them by cutting emissions and planting trees.
That is a great thing to do. I actually will be doing that when my work here is finished.. ( planting trees )...I hope anyway..:)
Quoting 378. georgevandenberghe:



Actually if the Titanic had not started the turn, it probably would have hit the iceberg head on, breached the forward two bow compartments only and survived. Instead the iceberg tore a strip along the side of the ship flooding the forward five compartments which made its foundering certain.



The Titanic should have not gone into the iceberg feild in the first place. There were reports and warnings in the area that there were icebergs, but the radio operaters dismissed them as "not important." And when Smith finally got the word, he didn't choose to stop the ship and wait for the ice to clear out like he should have.

Sometimes I think the Titanic crew was full of idiots. I mean Smith almost got the Olympic sunk before he was on the Titanic. And don't forget the guy who forgot his binoculars
Quoting 386. hydrus:

That is a great thing to do. I actually will be doing that when my work here is finished.. ( planting trees )...I hope anyway..:)


I'm growing trees from seeds so I can plant them. Oaks and walnuts to start, but maybe some maples later down the road :)
12Z GFS puts the low (1002 mb) in the BOC at 198 hours.
Board White Heat in the morning, surf York Beach in the afternoon. Sometimes I actually miss that freezing cold place. Seems a little late for the first snows.

Quoting 354. SkiDestructor:

Looks like snow is coming to Northern Maine this weekend...but with as warm as it's been, the leaves are still mostly on the trees! If the snow load reaches a certain point, it could make for bad impacts on the electrical lines...any snow probably won't last long as the warm air returns.

The new buzzword in the infrastructure world is resiliency. Many public works entities are looking to evaluate and re-engineer their infrastructure to handle higher temperatures of pavements, greater flows in storm sewers, and greater protection from flood events. All brought to you by the experts and engineers who understand where we are heading and the damage and risks we already are seeing for the past few decades. Nobody wants a plane to land at an airport with melted soft pavement or flooded tarmacs. Most major metropolitan areas seem to embrace the concept of Resiliency...but not all. These organizations have no doubts that the current effects will increase rather than go away. I don't know of a single Public Works director worrying about whether their infrastructure can take it getting colder or dryer...
Quoting 387. FunnelVortex:



The Titanic should have not gone into the iceberg feild in the first place. There were reports and warnings in the area that there were icebergs, but the radio operaters dismissed them as "not important." And when Smith finally got the word, he didn't choose to stop the ship and wait for the ice to clear out like he should have.

Sometimes I think the Titanic crew was full of idiots. I mean Smith almost got the Olympic sunk before he was on the Titanic.


The crew of the Titanic was lead to believe the ship was indestructible so they weren't worried about icebergs, they probably figured the steel ship would just bounce off them, they were wrong!
Quoting 364. adjusterjh:

Does this say what I think it says? The trusted European model is calling for a system to develop in the gulf on the 24th? Can somebody help out a rookie here...

The ECMWF and GFS both develop a low in the BOC at around 240 hours. We don't yet know what the ECMWF thinks the path of this erstwhile low will be since it ends at 240 hours. The GFS takes the low into Texas at about 300 hours. That would be the typical path of an October low forming in the BOC. Both models are at the far end of their forecast range, and their predictions about TC genesis are not likely to be accurate. Even the turncoat CMC wants to take a low into Texas instead of Alabama, so the BOC is a good place to keep an eye on. You can be sure the NHC watches these models a lot more closely than we do. Until a yellow X shows up, I wouldn't be too concerned about any 10 day model running proving tue.
Quoting 387. FunnelVortex:



The Titanic should have not gone into the iceberg feild in the first place. There were reports and warnings in the area that there were icebergs, but the radio operaters dismissed them as "not important." And when Smith finally got the word, he didn't choose to stop the ship and wait for the ice to clear out like he should have.

Sometimes I think the Titanic crew was full of idiots. I mean Smith almost got the Olympic sunk before he was on the Titanic. And don't forget the guy who forgot his binoculars
Was climate change the reason the Titanic sunk?Just curious if those ice bergs were prevalent at that time.
Great doc on Netflix about how weather most likely played a huge role in the inability of the lookouts to see the berg before it was essentially too late. Goes over ship records for other ships crossing that area around the same time and the water temp anomalies present. Great sleuthing/forensic meteorology. I apologize, don't remember the name of the show.

Quoting 378. georgevandenberghe:



Actually if the Titanic had not started the turn, it probably would have hit the iceberg head on, breached the forward two bow compartments only and survived. Instead the iceberg tore a strip along the side of the ship flooding the forward five compartments which made its foundering certain.

Quoting 393. sar2401:

The ECMWF and GFS both develop a low in the around 240 hours. We don't yet know what the ECMWF thinks the path of this erstwhile low will be since it ends at 240 hours. The GFS takes the low into Texas at about 300 hours. That would be the typical path of an October low forming in the BOC. oth models are at the far end of their forecast range, and their predictions about TC genesis are not likely to be accurate. Even the turncoat CMC wants to take a low into Texas instead of Alabama, so the BOC is a good place to keep an eye on. You can be sure the NHC watches these models a lot more closely than we do. Until a yellow X shows up, I wouldn't be too concerned about any 10 day model running proving tue.


Sar you should know anything in the BOC in October has a chance of hitting anywhere in the GOM. I would put the odds at 50/50 that it hits either Texas or NW Florida. IF something develops there it will all depend on when the next cold front comes along on whether it lifts out and goes NE towards NW Florida. Opal was the second Hurricane I went through in 1995 and I remember that devil all too well.
Quoting 395. victoria780:

Was climate change the reason the Titanic sunk?Just curious if those ice bergs were prevalent at that time.


1912 was before climate change became a serious issue
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4h4 hours ago
When even the CMC ensemble sees the MJO shift into W. hemisphere it signals long-range TC risk either side of Mexico.
Quoting 389. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS puts the low (1002 mb) in the BOC at 198 hours.
Cam is not going to like this solution. :-)
401. JRRP
Quoting 401. JRRP:




A Cape Verde wave? At this time of year?
Quoting 397. 69Viking:



Sar you should know anything in the BOC in October has a chance of hitting anywhere in the GOM. I would put the odds at 50/50 that it hits either Texas or NW Florida. IF something develops there it will all depend on when the next cold front comes along on whether it lifts out and goes NE towards NW Florida. Opal was the second Hurricane I went through in 1995 and I remember that devil all too well.
Hurricane Opal did not form in the BOC, or even the Gulf. It was actually an African wave that made it all the way to the western Caribbean before forming into a low. Storms that actually form in the BOC have more like a 70% chance of making landfall somewhere from NE Mexico to Texas, and the current MJO makes that even more likely. The strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern US is another factor that would make a low go west or north, not east. With even the CMC making this west shift into Texas, I'm inclined to think that path may be right, assuming the low forms at all. Always possible another path toward us could happen, but it's not the likely outcome right now.
Quoting 402. FunnelVortex:



A Cape Verde wave? At this time of year?
There are a couple, and yes, its getting late for them to be around...I believe the models will finally agree the Caribbean Sea will be the area of formation rather than the East Pacific...If not, I learn from each crow I eat..

Talking hurricanes, it is very unlikely that a hurricane will landfall in Texas towards mid to late October. "Usually" the first significant cold front that pushes off the Texas coast into the GOM ends the hurricane season for Texas.

Quoting 404. hydrus:

There are a couple, and yes, its getting late for them to be around...I believe the models will finally agree the Caribbean Sea will be the area of formation rather than the East Pacific...If not, I learn from each crow I eat..




Am I the only one who doesn't get this whole "eating crow" thing?
Quoting 403. sar2401:

Hurricane Opal did not form in the BOC, or even the Gulf. It was actually an African wave that made it all the way to the western Caribbean before forming into a low. Storms that actually form in the BOC have more like a 70% chance of making landfall somewhere from NE Mexico to Texas, and the current MJO makes that even more likely. The strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern US is another factor that would make a low go west or north, not east. With even the CMC making this west shift into Texas, I'm inclined to think that path may be right, assuming the low forms at all. Always possible another path toward us could happen, but it's not the likely outcome right now.


The strong ridge of High pressure is not normal for this time of year and it will depend on how long that stays in place. Typically this time of year we get Low pressure troughs that come across the country bringing fall storms and cooler weather. It will all depend on timing. If this system takes it's time developing it gives the steering pattern time to change with troughs coming across the country. Whatever happens I just hope it brings NW Florida some rain.
Quoting 388. FunnelVortex:



I'm growing trees from seeds so I can plant them. Oaks and walnuts to start, but maybe some maples later down the road :)
I will plant many kinds, depending on region and soil.
Here comes October, the time of year when any hurricane that forms in the Caribbean or gulf, it hits Florida.

As hydrus said, there is a Cape Verde wave, yet no development.

in other news Joaquin made landfall in Portugal with winds of 40 mph, it killed 2 due to riptides.

If you have anything to ask me quote me!
Sar I don't disagree with you, if the current steering pattern holds it will be a Mexico or Texas storm if it comes to fruition.
Quoting 412. 69Viking:

Sar I don't disagree with you, if the current steering pattern holds it will be a Mexico or Texas storm if it comes to fruition.

Agreed.
Quoting 411. Famoguy1234:

Here comes October, the time of year when any hurricane that forms in the Caribbean or gulf, it hits Florida.

As hydrus said, there is a Cape Verde wave, yet no development.

in other news Joaquin made landfall in Portugal with winds of 40 mph, it killed 2 due to riptides.

If you have anything to ask me quote me!



Just the ones that get picked up by a cold front which is common this time of year as Fall tries to establish itself across the country.
Quoting 414. 69Viking:



Just the ones that get picked up by a cold front which is common this time of year as Fall tries to establish itself across the country.


So far this year it's having a hard time getting established. It's going from summer right to a mild winter, lol.
Also, despite the models saying something to form in the gulf, nothing is on the N.H.C website :P
Quoting 416. Famoguy1234:

Also, despite the models saying something to form in the gulf, nothing is on the N.H.C website :P


It only shows up on the site once the actual invest forms, and invest hasn't formed yet :P
Personally I can't wait until Winter gets here. With El Nino in place it should mean a cool, wet, stormy time for most of Florida and parts of the SE. I hunt and I love sitting in a elevated blind with a tin roof watching all the forest critters when it's raining. Most people probably think when it rains they take cover but it's actually the opposite, I see more animals when it rains than when it doesn't. I think a cold rain gets them moving to help them produce body heat.

Can you guess what hurricane is on my gif portrait?
Knowing the last few years steering currents anything that forms will go straight into Mexico.
late season action may be underway soon


Quoting 418. 69Viking:

Personally I can't wait until Winter gets here. With El Nino in place it should mean a cool, wet, stormy time for most of Florida and parts of the SE. I hunt and I love sitting in a elevated blind with a tin roof watching all the forest critters when it's raining. Most people probably think when it rains they take cover but it's actually the opposite, I see more animals when it rains than when it doesn't. I think a cold rain gets them moving to help them produce body heat.


I'm moving to Georgia (U.S, not the republic) for the winter, and the winter forecast says 7 inches of snow.
Quoting 415. FunnelVortex:



So far this year it's having a hard time getting established. It's going from summer right to a mild winter, lol.


No winter here in NW Florida yet, highs are in the 80's with lows in the 60's. Look like we'll get a cool down next week with a passing of a dry cold front this weekend as temps are supposed to drop with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 50's. Beautiful weather for this time of year but just wish the cold front would come with some rain.
Quoting 419. Famoguy1234:



Can you guess what hurricane is on my gif portrait?


Joaquin
Whoever guesses the hurricane on my portrait gets a cookie :3
Quoting 425. Famoguy1234:

Whoever guesses the hurricane on my portrait gets a cookie :3

Its Joaquin, you have the day and year on the loop
Quoting 425. Famoguy1234:

Whoever guesses the hurricane on my portrait gets a cookie :3


It's Joaquin. If you really want to quiz us then don't use an image that is blatantly labeled as "Hurricane Joaquin", also use a storm that happened a while ago and not recently, since the satellite image is fresh in our heads and will be for a while yet.
Quoting 400. sar2401:

Cam is not going to like this solution. :-)
as you always say, a model that far out has no chance ;)
Quoting 425. Famoguy1234:

Whoever guesses the hurricane on my portrait gets a cookie :3
typhoon tip? -_-
Quoting 425. Famoguy1234:

Whoever guesses the hurricane on my portrait gets a cookie :3
Hurricane juoaquin? That's what it says on the photo caption. :-)
Anyways, I just took my first ever PSAT, it went.....good....okay....not great.....bad.....horrible.....catastrophically horrendous.....i just killed myself over how hard it was. Just kidding it wasn't too bad. :)
Quoting 418. 69Viking:

Personally I can't wait until Winter gets here. With El Nino in place it should mean a cool, wet, stormy time for most of Florida and parts of the SE. I hunt and I love sitting in a elevated blind with a tin roof watching all the forest critters when it's raining. Most people probably think when it rains they take cover but it's actually the opposite, I see more animals when it rains than when it doesn't. I think a cold rain gets them moving to help them produce body heat.
do you eat it the stuff you hunt
Quoting 431. sar2401:

Hurricane juoaquin? That's what it says on the photo caption. :-)


I didn't even have to look at the caption to know it was Joaquin. And I don't think any of us had to either.
Quoting 430. Gearsts:

typhoon tip? -_-
Damn... I thought it was Wilma... lol
Quoting 418. 69Viking:

Personally I can't wait until Winter gets here. With El Nino in place it should mean a cool, wet, stormy time for most of Florida and parts of the SE. I hunt and I love sitting in a elevated blind with a tin roof watching all the forest critters when it's raining. Most people probably think when it rains they take cover but it's actually the opposite, I see more animals when it rains than when it doesn't. I think a cold rain gets them moving to help them produce body heat.

Plus 20. Hunt is on! Wife is going to FLA for a trip with her mom for 4 days. I'm heading to the woods for 4 days. First frost of the year up here, and I can't wait to see some movement. 2 weeks ago it was 46, 20mph winds, and rain. Creatures sit tight with high wind. Should be low wind this weekend + Frost = lots of movement.
Quoting 423. 69Viking:



No winter here in NW Florida yet, highs are in the 80's with lows in the 60's. Look like we'll get a cool down next week with a passing of a dry cold front this weekend as temps are supposed to drop with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 50's. Beautiful weather for this time of year but just wish the cold front would come with some rain.


Getting pretty dry in C FL as well. After a historically wet July and August, I had 6.30" in September (most of which fell in the first half of the month), and only 0.59" in October so far. Truthfully, the Tampa Bay area needed this drying out. I can finally go for a run on the Tampa Bay trail without dodging flood waters. Especially considering El Nino could bring a rainy winter. But, my lawn is already showing signs of heat stress, even though it's October.
First, I would like to link an article about Miami and the FACT that the average sea level rise in Miami has been an inch per year... here is my source; Water Water Everywhere; http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/10/03/sea-lev el-rise-in-miami/

From above article; "The Miami metropolitan region has the greatest amount of exposed financial assets and 4th-largest population vulnerable to sea level rise in the world. The only other cities with a higher combined (financial assets and population) risk are Hong Kong and Calcutta [2]."

Next, an article that many from Dr. Roods Climate blog are likely familiar with; The Coming Reality of Sea Level Rise; Too Fast, Too Soon by Dr. Harold Wanless

One more thing... "I" believe the human herd is about to be culled in the worse ways imaginable.. slow painful starvation, disease and combat for the remaining food and water.
Quoting 439. indianrivguy:

First, I would like to link an article about Miami and the FACT that the average sea level rise in Miami has been an inch per year... here is my source; http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/10/03/sea-lev el-rise-in-miami/

From above article; "The Miami metropolitan region has the greatest amount of exposed financial assets and 4th-largest population vulnerable to sea level rise in the world. The only other cities with a higher combined (financial assets and population) risk are Hong Kong and Calcutta [2]."

Next, an article that many from Dr. Roods Climate blog are likely familiar with; The Coming Reality of Sea Level Rise; Too Fast, Too Soon by Dr. Harold Wanless

One more thing... "I" believe the human herd is about to be culled in the worse ways imaginable.. slow painful starvation, disease and combat for the remaining food and water.


While climate change will be devastating, I wouldn't go THAT far.
Quoting 436. MonsterTrough:


Plus 20. Hunt is on! Wife is going to FLA for a trip with her mom for 4 days. I'm heading to the woods for 4 days. First frost of the year up here, and I can't wait to see some movement. 2 weeks ago it was 46, 20mph winds, and rain. Creatures sit tight with high wind. Should be low wind this weekend + Frost = lots of movement.
yeah they be starting too forage now
Quoting 439. indianrivguy:

First, I would like to link an article about Miami and the FACT that the average sea level rise in Miami has been an inch per year... here is my source; http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/10/03/sea-lev el-rise-in-miami/

From above article; "The Miami metropolitan region has the greatest amount of exposed financial assets and 4th-largest population vulnerable to sea level rise in the world. The only other cities with a higher combined (financial assets and population) risk are Hong Kong and Calcutta [2]."

Next, an article that many from Dr. Roods Climate blog are likely familiar with; The Coming Reality of Sea Level Rise; Too Fast, Too Soon by Dr. Harold Wanless

One more thing... "I" believe the human herd is about to be culled in the worse ways imaginable.. slow painful starvation, disease and combat for the remaining food and water.


NASA: Local sea level could rise 2 feet in 35 years

NASA researchers predict as much as 2 feet of sea rise in the next 35 years %u2014 a grim projection that creates challenges for the region%u2019s environment and economy.
The space agency forecasts 15 inches to 33 inches of local sea rise by the 2080s, though the Gulf Coast could see as much as 4.1 feet of sea rise, data show.
With all of the coastal developments in so many parts of Florida (and other States), if you have access by boat to the coastline, away from the developed areas, you can find some beautiful places to fish and/or just enjoy the nature. When I lived in South Florida, that "spot" for me was being on a flats boat out of the Everglades at Flamingo into Florida Bay...............Now that I am up here in North Florida, the Big Bend coast any where from North of Steinhatchee/Suwannee River over to Apalachicola is stunning as well.

Inland, you can get to our State Parks, Forests, and big lakes and hammocks to enjoy the view as well (and Florida Spring locations). A beautiful State if you know where to go and thank God for State and Federal park and land purchases to try to preserve what is left.
Quoting 408. 69Viking:



The strong ridge of High pressure is not normal for this time of year and it will depend on how long that stays in place. Typically this time of year we get Low pressure troughs that come across the country bringing fall storms and cooler weather. It will all depend on timing. If this system takes it's time developing it gives the steering pattern time to change with troughs coming across the country. Whatever happens I just hope it brings NW Florida some rain.
Certainly, and that's what makes these 10+ models so problematic. They not only have to get TC genesis right, they also have to be right on the entire continental pattern way out in the future. Even if a TC forms, exactly where it would go is an open question except for our usual idle speculation. It would be nice to get some rain up here as well. My total rainfall for the month is 0.31" from a rogue thunderstorm yesterday morning.
trees in my area will be doing the drop after the end of this week
Quoting 443. FunnelVortex:



I think it may happen faster than that.
Why...?..2 feet in 35 years is pretty quick.
Quoting 446. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

trees in my area will be doing the drop after the end of this week

It is already happening here, and has been for about 3 weeks..Every time we get a late frost with heavy winds, the leaves are fragile, and fall early.
Quoting 447. hydrus:

Why...?..2 feet in 35 years is pretty quick.


I personally would add another six inches. As I explained before, the release of arctic methane is going to accelerate global warming.
Quoting 423. 69Viking:



No winter here in NW Florida yet, highs are in the 80's with lows in the 60's. Look like we'll get a cool down next week with a passing of a dry cold front this weekend as temps are supposed to drop with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 50's. Beautiful weather for this time of year but just wish the cold front would come with some rain.
Got down to 48 this morning up here. That's about six degrees lower than predicted, and the first low in the 40's since early May. The first low in the 40's is my benchmark for when fall begins in SE Alabama. Some of the live oaks are starting to turn and drop leaves, and some sycamores are already half bare. It's up to 83 but the dewpoint is only 53. This is the kind of weather tourists love, but some rain would be nice for the people who live here.
444. weathermanwannabe
That's what they're doing up here in D.C.Just building and building.Our dog park that we fought to preserve now has a dirty condo being built upon it.They are literally taking ever every space they can and building a condo over it.That is why when I retire I plan on going out into the country because its just to crowded now and noisy.It was a quite neighborhood when we first moved to this side of town 24 years ago now its not and quickly growing.
When the massive Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland calved earlier this summer, it moved 4.6 square miles (12 square kilometers) of ice in one day, Rignot said. [See Photos of Greenland's Melting Glaciers]

If the Jakobshavn glacier had melted completely, "it contains enough ice to raise global sea level by half a meter — just this one glacier in Greenland," Rignot said. If all the land ice on the planet were to melt, it would raise sea levels about 197 feet (60 m), he added.

Some of the melting that has already occurred is likely irreversible, and could take hundreds of years to reverse, Rignot said.
Quoting 448. hydrus:

It is already happening here, and has been for about 3 weeks..Every time we get a late frost with heavy winds, the leaves are fragile, and fall early.
we have some dropping but we have yet to get a hard freeze below 32 but that happens Friday night again saturnight and sunday night as well but not as cold as first 2 maybe see 29 or 28 for a couple of hrs both nights

after that the slightest breeze and they will fall
by 24th 25th trees could be bare
that will be about a week early
Quoting 440. FunnelVortex:



While climate change will be devastating, I wouldn't go THAT far.


What part do you have trouble with FV? The "cull?" 100 million people live 3 feet or less above current sea level. They will try and move where 100 million people are already living hand to mouth.. as weather patterns shift and crops fail all over because of the unreliability of rain for crop production..... folks with the best guns will get the food..
Quoting 444. weathermanwannabe:

With all of the coastal developments in so many parts of Florida (and other States), if you have access by boat to the coastline, away from the developed areas, you can find some beautiful places to fish and/or just enjoy the nature. When I lived in South Florida, that "spot" for me was being on a flats boat out of the Everglades at Flamingo into Florida Bay...............Now that I am up here in North Florida, the Big Bend coast any where from North of Steinhatchee/Suwannee River over to Apalachicola is stunning as well.

Inland, you can get to our State Parks, Forests, and big lakes and hammocks to enjoy the view as well (and Florida Spring locations). A beautiful State if you know where to go and thank God for State and Federal park and land purchases to try to preserve what is left.


There is hardly any wilderness left in Florida, which is just sad.

I do hear that floridans desperately fight to preserve the state's remaining wilderness before it becomes one big forest of useless uninhabited condos. Wish them luck.
Quoting 450. FunnelVortex:



I personally would add another six inches. As I explained before, the release of arctic methane is going to accelerate global warming.
So that is the main reason for such a rapid rise.?.My finger points more toward Greenland ice melt and to a lesser extent Antarctic ice melt. Ice in the Arctic already displaces a considerate amount of water , therefor may not be as significant as the former. Global warming may actually accelerate if and when we clean up our emissions..There is much studying to be done on this this.
Quoting 455. indianrivguy:



What part do you have trouble with FV? The "cull?" 100 million people live 3 feet or less above current sea level. They will try and move where 100 million people are already living hand to mouth.. as weather patterns shift and crops fail all over because of the unreliability of rain for crop production..... folks with the best guns will get the food..


Well many areas are going to see an increase in rainfall. Including my area. My area has been increasing in rain.

It will affect different areas differently. Future is uncertain.
Quoting 457. hydrus:

So that is the main reason for such a rapid rise.?.My finger points more toward Greenland ice melt and to a lesser extent Antarctic ice melt. Ice in the Arctic already displaces a considerate amount of water , therefor may not be as significant as the former. Global warming may actually accelerate if and when we clean up our emissions..There is much studying to be done on this this.


I mean as more methane is released the heating rate will accelerate and ice will melt faster. And who knows how much methane is locked under Greenland.
Quoting 454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we have some dropping but we have yet to get a hard freeze below 32 but that happens Friday night again saturnight and sunday night as well but not as cold as first 2 maybe see 29 or 28 for a couple of hrs both nights

after that the slightest breeze and they will fall
by 24th 25th trees could be bare
that will be about a week early


Better get those boilers fired up and ready.
Quoting 453. RitaEvac:

When the massive Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland calved earlier this summer, it moved 4.6 square miles (12 square kilometers) of ice in one day, Rignot said. [See Photos of Greenland's Melting Glaciers]

If the Jakobshavn glacier had melted completely, "it contains enough ice to raise global sea level by half a meter — just this one glacier in Greenland," Rignot said. If all the land ice on the planet were to melt, it would raise sea levels about 197 feet (60 m), he added.

Some of the melting that has already occurred is likely irreversible, and could take hundreds of years to reverse, Rignot said.
This is a subject that will come up more and more. I agree there will be considerable " runaway " associated with the current event, but not doing anything about it is plain stupid...Make good efforts to slow it down and hope for the best.
NOAA awards $5.7 million to improve hazardous weather forecasts
Research to focus on improved prediction of tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, snow


Excerpt:

Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment in the Southeast U.S. (VORTEX-SE), $1.9 million

Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT), $1.4 million

Hydrometeorology Testbed, (HMT) $1.2 million

Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT), $1.2 million



Specific Grants
Quoting 449. RitaEvac:

NASA: Rising Sea Levels More Dangerous Than Thought
As the article states, there is still considerable uncertainty with the results so far. It will take another decade of observations to get more certainty about how quickly sea level rise is occurring on a global basis. Nevertheless, the results so far are sobering. We don't know exactly how fast the changes due to global warming will occur, and there's always the chance that the changes have been underestimated. Real estate values in places like Miami Beach will be a good indicator.
Quoting 456. FunnelVortex:



There is hardly any wilderness left in Florida, which is just sad.

I do hear that floridans desperately fight to preserve the state's remaining wilderness before it becomes one big forest of useless uninhabited condos. Wish them luck.
When did you live in Florida?
Quoting 395. victoria780:

Was climate change the reason the Titanic sunk?Just curious if those ice bergs were prevalent at that time.
Isn't climate change the cause of all the troubles the world has, and will experience.
Quoting 454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we have some dropping but we have yet to get a hard freeze below 32 but that happens Friday night again saturnight and sunday night as well but not as cold as first 2 maybe see 29 or 28 for a couple of hrs both nights

after that the slightest breeze and they will fall
by 24th 25th trees could be bare
that will be about a week early


Expecting a freeze here in cooler parts (open and exposed and slightly depressed) DC suburbs Saturday night and, more likely, Sunday night. Trees are still dominant green but with color starting to show, perhaps 25%. Peak color here is first week or second week of November with full leaf fall by the first week in December. When I was a kid in the 60s thanksgiving weekend was cleanup time but that no longer always works.. there are still some left then some years.
Quoting 454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we have some dropping but we have yet to get a hard freeze below 32 but that happens Friday night again saturnight and sunday night as well but not as cold as first 2 maybe see 29 or 28 for a couple of hrs both nights

after that the slightest breeze and they will fall
by 24th 25th trees could be bare
that will be about a week early


Faster and Faster, Nice Avatar Keeper, the old fashioned way(B-52's)....
Quoting 465. sar2401:

When did you live in Florida?


My grandma does, she tells me this stuff.
Latest GFS..Not that it means much at this time..

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 457. hydrus:

So that is the main reason for such a rapid rise.?.My finger points more toward Greenland ice melt and to a lesser extent Antarctic ice melt. Ice in the Arctic already displaces a considerate amount of water , therefor may not be as significant as the former. Global warming may actually accelerate if and when we clean up our emissions..There is much studying to be done on this this.

Half the pollution per person, then double the population, you will then end up with the same amount of pollution as before.
As the equipment becomes older it becomes more inefficient so produces more pollution per unit.
Old high pollution engines are exported from the 1st world to the 3rd world where there are no regulations so they continue to produce high levels of pollution prohibited in the 1st world.
The cycle continues until it self destructs.
Meanwhile the human nature will have to contend with the refugees, as the human nature will not permit them to die from everything from loss of habitat to starvation.
Que Sera Sera?
We think Man doesn't affect the weather....



Looking towards Texas City, TX at the refineries from Galveston TX. This cloud is being created and sustained by the Cat 3 steam stack at Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery where you can see where the steam is going up at the base of the cloud. Man does have an impact on weather...whether you believe it....or not. On numerous mornings at this location I used to see clouds billowing up from this steam stack on drives into work. This pic was taken by someone else, I had to share this for the community.
Quoting 466. NativeSun:

Isn't climate change the cause of all the troubles the world has, and will experience.

no
Quoting 439. indianrivguy:

First, I would like to link an article about Miami and the FACT that the average sea level rise in Miami has been an inch per year... here is my source; Water Water Everywhere; http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/10/03/sea-lev el-rise-in-miami/

From above article; "The Miami metropolitan region has the greatest amount of exposed financial assets and 4th-largest population vulnerable to sea level rise in the world. The only other cities with a higher combined (financial assets and population) risk are Hong Kong and Calcutta [2]."

Next, an article that many from Dr. Roods Climate blog are likely familiar with; The Coming Reality of Sea Level Rise; Too Fast, Too Soon by Dr. Harold Wanless

One more thing... "I" believe the human herd is about to be culled in the worse ways imaginable.. slow painful starvation, disease and combat for the remaining food and water.
Very possible, but not likely.
Quoting 455. indianrivguy:



What part do you have trouble with FV? The "cull?" 100 million people live 3 feet or less above current sea level. They will try and move where 100 million people are already living hand to mouth.. as weather patterns shift and crops fail all over because of the unreliability of rain for crop production..... folks with the best guns will get the food..
Well, time to stock up on more ammo for the AK so I can ward off the refugees from Destin then. :-)

Unfortunately, the effects of sea level rise will be felt the most strongly in Asian countries that are already unstable politically. There's no doubt that will lead to more conflicts, tainted with religious overtones. I'm hoping that the developed countries though the UN are at least starting to develop plans about how to deal with this. It's a little tricky when Pakistan and India, two countries which hate each other and will be affected by sea level rise, also have nukes.
Quoting 473. RitaEvac:

We think Man doesn't affect the weather....



Looking towards Texas City, TX at the refineries from Galveston TX. This cloud is being created and sustained by the Cat 3 steam stack at Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery where you can see where the steam is going up at the base of the cloud. Man does have an impact on weather...whether you believe it....or not. On numerous mornings at this location I used to see clouds billowing up from this steam stack on drives into work. This pic was taken by someone else, I had to share this for the community.
Yep..I did some research on factory emissions back to the early 1900;s...Huge amounts of toxic waste going into the air, and into the lungs, food and water of many regions..When I have some time, I will show some data on this...It was horrible.
Quoting 440. FunnelVortex:



While climate change will be devastating, I wouldn't go THAT far.
How do we know climate change will be so devastating? I don't know anyone as of now that knows what is going to happen tomorrow, much less 100 yrs. into the future. Lets deal with the real problems we face, air and water pollution, along with the biggest problem, over population.
Quoting 433. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

do you eat it the stuff you hunt


I only hunt deer and yes, wouldn't hunt otherwise. If I have a successful season and I put enough deer meat in the freezer my family and I won't eat beef at home the entire year. Venison is way more healthy than beef and my whole family likes it better than beef in general.
Quoting 473. RitaEvac:

We think Man doesn't affect the weather....



Looking towards Texas City, TX at the refineries from Galveston TX. This cloud is being created and sustained by the Cat 3 steam stack at Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery where you can see where the steam is going up at the base of the cloud. Man does have an impact on weather...whether you believe it....or not. On numerous mornings at this location I used to see clouds billowing up from this steam stack on drives into work. This pic was taken by someone else, I had to share this for the community.


Just out of curiosity, what substance other than 'steam' is coming out of the steam stack?
482. vis0

Quoting 277. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

Why should the older generations care about how we leave this planet? The simplest way that I can say this is that the youth of today deserve the richness of and abundance of life that we have had on this planet. When given half a chance, the youth of the world can do some very amazing things! They deserve the chance to be great in what they do. Us old folks ain't got nuthin on today's youth.
For now you are correct BUT...

look what ya made me do pg4, cmmnt#155 , if you want a direct response on how even today's elderly might have a change of heart in thinking twice of how the leave this planet  just read explanation#35 of that cmmnt#155 THERE
(#35??? explanations, not to worry i took out ~30 explanations so readers don't fall asleep with the stove ON, always check stove(s), faucets before you read my crap) If you're taking care of kid forget my stuff teach the child well as to respecting all around them, that will make me happier than anyone reading my crazy words, even happier than getting a cookie .