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A Sizzling October Sunday for Northern Plains

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2015

Sweaters and jackets lay dormant, replaced by T-shirts and shorts, for many residents of the United States over the weekend. Temperatures soared into the 80s and 90s across many parts of the country west of the Mississippi River. It wasn’t exactly chilly across the eastern U.S., either, with sunshine and pleasant 60s and 70s the rule over most areas. The most impressive extremes occurred on Sunday over the Northern Plains, where an already-warm airmass from the Rockies warmed even further as west winds pushed it downslope.


Figure 1. High temperatures observed on Sunday, October 11, 2015. Image credit: The Weather Channel.

Even though we’re now into mid-October, when average temperatures are falling fast, several locations managed to break monthly records for heat on Sunday. Many others experienced their warmest (or hottest) day ever recorded so late in the autumn, as catalogued by weather.com. In a number of cases, the readings on Sunday were one to two weeks later than any comparable heat in more than a century of record-keeping.

Locations where Sunday was the warmest day notched so late in the autumn include the following (thanks go to Nick Wiltgen and Linda Lam at weather.com for some of the record-heat data used below):

International Falls, MN: 88°F
Duluth, MN: 84°F
Redwood Falls, MN: 90°F
*Fargo, ND: 97°F
Grand Forks, ND: 90°F
Aberdeen, SD: 93°F
Pierre, SD: 95°F
*Broken Bow, NE: 98°F
*Grand Island, NE: 97°F
Lincoln, NE: 94°F
**Colorado Springs, CO: 87°F
(asterisk = October record broken;
double asterisk = October record tied)

The poster child for this autumn heat wave may be Fargo, ND, where the high on Sunday, October 11, was 97°F. Not only was it Fargo’s hottest day of 2015 thus far, but it was by far the warmest temperature ever observed so late in the year. Nothing so toasty had ever been recorded in Fargo any later than September 22, when the city soared to 101°F in 1936. Even in midsummer, hitting 97°F isn’t all that common in Fargo: from 1990 to 2014, that mark was reached in only 7 of 25 years.

Further south, the readings were less anomalous, but still hot enough to break records and break out summertime garb. Wichita Falls, TX, simmered with a daily record high of 97°F, and San Diego, CA, basked in record daily warmth of 94°F. The warmth in California was also aided by downslope winds, but in this case heading the other direction--blowing offshore from east to west, around the south side of the sprawling zone of high pressure covering the U.S. West. Such patterns often give California its warmest temperatures of the year, along with enhanced wildfire risk. Camarillo, CA, set an all-time high of 108°F on Friday, October 9, breaking the mark of 103°F set on September 24, 1978.

Not to be outdone, parts of south-central Canada got in on the warmth, which added a balmy touch to the Thanksgiving weekend. (Canada’s Thanksgiving is celebrated each year on what’s commonly known in the U.S. as Columbus Day and recognized as Indigenous Peoples' Day at a number of U.S. locations). Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, hit 78°F on Saturday, compared to the daily record of 80°F and an average high of around 54°F. Winnipeg, Manitoba, made it to 75°F on Sunday, falling short of the daily record of 79°F but still more than 20°F above average. High winds were blasting the Northern Plains on Monday behind a sharp cool front ushering in more seasonable air. Wind gusts could reach 120 km/hr (75 mph) in parts of the Winnipeg area, according to Environment Canada. High wind warnings are in effect for eastern ND and SD and western MN; winds gusted to 59 mph at Cooperstown, ND, on Monday morning.


Figure 2. State-by-state ranking of average temperatures observed in September for the contiguous United States. Image credit: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

Second-warmest September in U.S. weather records
With a 48-state average that came in 3.7°F above the 20th-century average, last month was the second-warmest September for the contiguous U.S. in 121 years of record-keeping, topped only by September 1998. A set of nine widely dispersed states had their warmest September on record: Connecticut, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Utah, and Wisconsin. The month was also on the dry side, coming in as the 21st-driest September of the past 121 years.

For the year to date, the 48-state average is eighth warmest on record, although that obscures record Jan-Sep warmth in four states (California, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada) and below-average readings from the mid-Mississippi Valley to New England.


Figure 3. Comparison of first-freeze climatology (1981-present) with conditions to date at first-order observations stations across the United States. Colored areas on map show the average date of the first freeze. The circles show whether each location has had a freeze (large purple) or no freeze yet (small gray). Image credit: Brian Brettschneider, @Climatologist49.


Figure 4. A view toward Centennial Ridges Trail in southeast Canada’s Algonquin Park (about 150 miles northeast of Toronto) on October 7, 2015. Sugar maples in the park hit peak on October 3 this year. Since 1975, the peak date has ranged from as early as September 15, 1982, to as late as October 9, 1996. Image credit: Algonquin Provincial Park.

The widespread warmth of September has delayed the first frost across many parts of the northern U.S. and the first snow over much of the Rockies. Most of South Dakota and western Nebraska normally get their first freeze by the end of September but have yet to touch 32°F this year (see Figure 3 above). The legendary fall foliage of New England has also taken a hit, as the color change is at least a week later than average in some locations--enough to compromise leaf-peeping for those who scheduled short trips well in advance. Yankee magazine’s live fall foliage map on Monday showed only a small part of northernmost New York and northern Vermont at peak color, with most of northern New England now in the “moderate” category. Northernmost Maine is also now near peak, according to the state’s official foliage website. By contrast, Yankee’s interactive map of average conditions shows that northern New England is usually at or past peak by this point, with the current conditions more comparable to those found on average during the last week of September.

The foliage-hastening effects of decreasing sunlight should begin to outweigh the warmth-induced delay as October proceeds. Temperatures this month over northern New England are running a bit below average, which should also help get the fall foliage spectacle rolling.


Figure 5. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nora to the southeast of Hawaii's Big Island as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Sunday, October 11, 2015. At the time, Nora was at peak strength with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Action in the Pacific: Tropical Storm Nora, 96E, 91W, and 92W
Earth's only active tropical cyclone on Monday was Tropical Storm Nora, which is expected to turn north on Tuesday east of Hawaii, missing the islands by over 500 miles. Steadily increasing wind shear should reduce Nora to a remnant low by Thursday.

Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that an area of disturbed weather located at 8 am EDT Monday about 675 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico (Invest 96E) will develop into a tropical depression late this week. This system is expected to move westwards at 10 - 15 mph and eventually turn north well east of Hawaii. Satellite loops show that 96E has an impressive amount of spin, but very few heavy thunderstorms. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 80%, respectively.

Two tropical disturbances in the Western Pacific are forecast by the GFS and European models to develop into tropical depressions later this week: Invest 91W and Invest 92W. 91W was near Guam in the U.S. Mariana Islands on Monday, and is likely to move west to west-northwest this week, reaching a position a few hundred miles east of the Philippines' Luzon Island by the weekend. This storm will likely be the larger and more dangerous of the two systems. 92W will move west-northwest and pass through the northern Mariana Islands on Friday and Saturday.

Nothing cooking in the Atlantic
None of our reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone development are predicting development of anything in the Atlantic over the next five days. There should be an increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean this weekend and early next week that will be worth watching for tropical cyclone development, though.

Bob Henson (temperatures), Jeff Masters (tropical)






Extreme Weather Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new blog...

Love the pics of the fall colors... need some fall wx here too...
thanks Bob....Algonquin Park is beautiful in the fall
I miss fall foliage, wet and dry seasons aren't a replacement.
Thanks Doc and Mr.Henson.
Thank you..The record heat will be replaced by snow flurries within a week in parts of Minnesota...Quite a switch..:)
Thanks for the great read. Wow, 97 degrees in North Dakota on oct. 11th is amazing.


Hmmm ... maybe it'll cool off overnight...
One heck of a trof digging into the gulf.

it has been many years since Central Eastcoast Florida has experienced a nor'easter. Back in the nineties several devastated our dunes, far more than the Hurricanes of 2004. Seems nowadays nor'easters originate further north. Hypothetically, could be climate change as cold fronts seem to not be the originator of these storms as they used to be.
Quoting 10. NSB207:

it has been many years since Central Eastcoast Florida has experienced a nor'easter. Back in the nineties several devastated our dunes, far more than the Hurricanes of 2004. Seems nowadays nor'easters originate further north. Hypothetically, could be climate change as cold fronts seem to not be the originator of these storms. As they used to be.


When I visited the east coast of Florida a couple years ago in November there was a huge gale out of the east that lasted a couple days straight. I was on the intercostal so it was constant strong wind and chilly temperatures (with overcast with some periods of rain) for over 48 hours. For the average tourist it would have been a crummy weather pattern, but being a weather nerd I didn't mind it at all. It washed up a bunch of jellyfish on the beach though. I went to the beach when the gale finally ended, and it was Washed-up Jellyfish Galore! And some nice shells washed up as well. But lots and lots of jellyfish.

Not sure if it was a nor'easter. It probably was just a strong cold front.
Hot, Hot, HOT... thanks for the update Gentlemen, gonna be high 90's here today again...
Quoting 1. BahaHurican:

Thanks for the new blog...

Love the pics of the fall colors... need some fall wx here too...
i second this
NAVGEM still on board will a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane 126 hrs out parallel to the Yucatan coast...
It's way warm here in Santa Fe, NM with no freeze even predicted in the next two weeks and, normally, we would have had our first freeze by now. Should be seeing snow at the peaks of the mountains but nothing.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Caribbean shear since June 1, 2015 remains higher than any other year on record (dataset begins in 1979).
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
2015 now lagging slightly behind 1997 in Nino 3.4. Current weekly SST anomaly is 2.4C vs. 2.6C for this week in 1997

There has been less humidity here in the Treasure Coast lately; especially today. This feels like autumn already.
Instead of cutting the lawn weekly I cut it every 10 days .
8-)

The mets have been reporting lots of tropical moisture will make its way to us by this weekend. At least this autumn break feels great.
Quoting 22. rmbjoe1954:

There has been less humidity here in the Treasure Coast lately; especially today. This feels like autumn already.
Instead of cutting the lawn weekly I cut it every 10 days .
8-)

The mets have been reporting lots of tropical moisture will make its way to us by this weekend. At least this autumn break feels great.


I'm hoping to go to every 2 weeks for the lawn now. We're supposed to have great weather here on the west coast this weekend.
24. JRRP
Quoting 24. JRRP:




Euro pulls that big Western Trough into the Plains @ day 8. Big change from 0Z and this models shows quite the increase in moisture across FL. Soon enough this El-Nino rainy pattern is poised to set in across FL.

Oh great not what we want to hear going into the Winter Season

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 16h16 hours ago
GEFS upgrade previously planned for October 13th has been delayed until "who the hell knows"
wish cayman was getting some of that stuff jamaica
no land mass to build that stuff

Quoting 9. hydrus:

One heck of a trof digging into the gulf.


People are discounting the possibility of a Hurricane hitting FL in 10 days, remember something will form in the Carrib, it all depends on where it is, the NAVGEM has it off the coast, allowing it to fully develop, most storms that form in the Carrib. during Oct. strike S FL
Euro shows no caribbean development but instead shows a weak storm nearing the northern Antilles in a week.
good read gentlemen thanks for the entry

nice day again today low 70's with a humidex to make it feel mid 70's
but today is the last of if
cooling for the rest of the week to cold by the weekend with rain showers in between it all
31. 7544
Quoting 28. Camerooski:

People are discounting the possibility of a Hurricane hitting FL in 10 days, remember something will form in the Carrib, it all depends on where it is, the NAVGEM has it off the coast, allowing it to fully develop, most storms that form in the Carrib. during Oct. strike S FL


gfs drops it too see if it brrings it back but either way looks like something might form imo wait watcxh and see
Quoting 31. 7544:



gfs drops it too see if it brrings it back but either way looks like something might form imo wait watcxh and see
yes, but the GFS was the first too show it, they have a good history of showing things for a week, and then completely dropping it... Many ensembles are still showing a weaker version of the NAVGEM...
Quoting 28. Camerooski:

People are discounting the possibility of a Hurricane hitting FL in 10 days, remember something will form in the Carrib, it all depends on where it is, the NAVGEM has it off the coast, allowing it to fully develop, most storms that form in the Carrib. during Oct. strike S FL


Likely will be too much shear. Models are beginning to show a pretty robust southern jet next week. Likely the beginnings of our wet Fall/Winter here in FL because once this pattern locks then we can pretty much expect rain every few days here.

With that arctic high suppose to be situated over the states I just don't see a hurricane coming for Florida.The jet stream would have taken a hold of the gulf then and torn anything up.
a week from today ne will have its first killing frosts of the fall

that will be good for some nice fall color's

Monday morning lows 19 oct


sunday morning lows 18 oct
Umm the 24C water temperatures of the coast of Southern California..... is that a record?


Quoting 17. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Caribbean shear since June 1, 2015 remains higher than any other year on record (dataset begins in 1979).
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
2015 now lagging slightly behind 1997 in Nino 3.4. Current weekly SST anomaly is 2.4C vs. 2.6C for this week in 1997



Do you think any chance we still match 1997 ?
Quoting 34. washingtonian115:

With that arctic high suppose to be situated over the states I just don't see a hurricane coming for Florida.The jet stream would have taken a hold of the gulf then and torn anything up.
I agree.
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

a week from today ne will have its first killing frosts of the fall

that will be good for some nice fall color's

Monday morning lows 19 oct


sunday morning lows 18 oct

Jackets and Coats will be coming out very soon.
Quoting 36. Tornado6042008X:

Umm the 24C water temperatures of the coast of Southern California..... is that a record?





I don't think so, but that chart shows an SST profile that in theory could support a TS making it all the way up here before it falls apart.
Quoting 37. SlabTown:


I don't think we will get there.

there is a lot of speculation of tropical development in the south western caribbean , but i am more apt to believe that something might come out of the tropical wave at 10N 30W, which although embedded in not too weak a shear environment is showing vorticity at the surface.
Quoting 39. Climate175:

Jackets and Coats will be coming out very soon.


sat oct 17 daytime high temps forecast

just a little chilly

Quoting 42. stoormfury:


there is a lot of speculation of tropical development in the south western caribbean , but i am more apt to believe that something might come out of the tropical wave at 10N 30W, which although embedded in not too weak a shear environment is showing vorticity at the surface.
Some models are forming that into a TS, but recurving it OTS... But there will definitely be something in the Carrib.
Quoting 34. washingtonian115:

With that arctic high suppose to be situated over the states I just don't see a hurricane coming for Florida.The jet stream would have taken a hold of the gulf then and torn anything up.


Models are beginning to show this El-Nino enhanced southern jet starting to take hold as we move thru next week. Looking @ the Euro and GFS, PWAT's could near 2.0" to 2.5" across the Gulf.

Quoting 11. FunnelVortex:



When I visited the east coast of Florida a couple years ago in November there was a huge gale out of the east that lasted a couple days straight. I was on the intercostal so it was constant strong wind and chilly temperatures (with overcast with some periods of rain) for over 48 hours. For the average tourist it would have been a crummy weather pattern, but being a weather nerd I didn't mind it at all. It washed up a bunch of jellyfish on the beach though. I went to the beach when the gale finally ended, and it was Washed-up Jellyfish Galore! And some nice shells washed up as well. But lots and lots of jellyfish.

Not sure if it was a nor'easter. It probably was just a strong cold front.


You are right about many jelly fish washing up. This happens with a east or southeast wind. From these directions, hardly ever have dune erosion. BUT...from the northeast lookout!
Quoting 28. Camerooski:

People are discounting the possibility of a Hurricane hitting FL in 10 days, remember something will form in the Carrib, it all depends on where it is, the NAVGEM has it off the coast, allowing it to fully develop, most storms that form in the Carrib. during Oct. strike S FL From what nIve read the Navgem was not designed for Tropical Genesis .
The Winter Forecasts I have been seeing are really calling for a wildcard winter, so either a wet and snowy or wet and mild winter. CWG is releasing theirs in early November. We shall find out how the winter plays out in about 2-3 months.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:



Likely will be too much shear. Models are beginning to show a pretty robust southern jet next week. Likely the beginnings of our wet Fall/Winter here in FL because once this pattern locks then we can pretty much expect rain every few days here.




Agree with you Scott. Would be surprised if anything will develop with the trough dropping, drying out the GOM
way way out but interesting all the same
quite the system looks like if its to happen

fri oct 23 2015
IN 1997 or 1998, two tornadoes did significant damage in New Smyrna Beach, on jumping over my home as I took possession! Was a wet, stormy winter.
Quoting 49. NSB207:



Agree with you Scott. Would be surprised if anything will develop with the trough dropping, drying out the GOM


Shear may be just to much for anything to get going but you never know. It wasn't until around Halloween in 1997 that we started seeing heavy rains from El-Nino so we are nearing the time were things begin to trend wet again especially with such a Strong ENSO @ play.
NAVGEM is not a reliable model for cyclogenesis prediction. Couple that with the uncertainty of any weather forecast model in the 7 day range and no otherwise reliable models in agreement, the NAVGEM solution is highly doubtful at the moment.
Quoting 51. NSB207:

IN 1997 or 1998, two tornadoes did significant damage in New Smyrna Beach, on jumping over my home as I took possession! Was a wet, stormy winter.


I remember that it was in October. That tornado was near the New Smyrna Beach Causeway and traveled across the Barrier island out to near Flagler Avenue.
Quoting 53. Naga5000:

NAVGEM is not a reliable model for cyclogenesis prediction. Couple that with the uncertainty of any weather forecast model in the 7 day range and no otherwise reliable models in agreement, the NAVGEM solution is highly doubtful at the moment.


No hurricane but severe weather sure looks likely across Plains mid next week. Maybe seeing a Tornado Outbreak if these models hold true.
Quoting 53. Naga5000:

NAVGEM is not a reliable model for cyclogenesis prediction. Couple that with the uncertainty of any weather forecast model in the 7 day range and no otherwise reliable models in agreement, the NAVGEM solution is highly doubtful at the moment.


Some have an innate proclivity for posting that model. It cannot be helped.
That map matches our current Sat. forecast Keep. Start out with our first 30s low (37) warming to 59, then start Sun. at 38. Should get the colors peaking in S C IL soon after. Have some hard maples already at peak, but they're usually 2 wks ahead of ones in my yard. Sumacs are purple and hickories are yellow, both also early turners, but could start to see tinges on others this last weekend, so expect peak in next two weeks.

Cold front made it cloudy and a little gusty after lunch, but very few pop up rain clouds with it, mostly S of us, as showing a 42 dew pt w/ 72 still, but should start dropping as NW winds take hold. 29.64" w/ 24 gust so far.

Hope the 'birds Kershaw Mr. Arrieta tonight, hope to see them spraying MO sparkling wine & Bud all over Wrigley clubhouse tomorrow evening. Back 2 Future 2 already wrong since no Miami AL team, so... maybe next year!
Quoting 53. Naga5000:

NAVGEM is not a reliable model for cyclogenesis prediction. Couple that with the uncertainty of any weather forecast model in the 7 day range and no otherwise reliable models in agreement, the NAVGEM solution is highly doubtful at the moment.


It doesn't matter Naga. When one's agenda is that a storm is going to hit Florida, one latches on to whatever he/she can find that remotely supports that agenda....... maybe he/she will grow up?
please lol

Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

way way out but interesting all the same
quite the system looks like if its to happen

fri oct 23 2015

Good evening. Still a heatwave in the Northern Plains in the northern hemisphere, already a persisting heatwave in the southern hemisphere in Africa, apparently in the frame of a larger drought which won't lessen in the worsening El Nino year, ummm ...

Heatwave to stick around in Gauteng
October 12 2015 at 10:38am
Johannesburg - The current heatwave in Gauteng could stick around until Thursday at the very least, according to the South African Weather Service.
People across the province have been complaining of the temperatures rising to the mid-30s [= mid-90s F], but the blistering heat should be broken as rains are expected towards the middle of this week. ...
However, once the heatwave is over, South Africans can expect a hot, dry summer season in the coming months, thanks to the El Niño effect. ...


Mpumalanga municipality running out of water due to heatwave
Monday 12 October 2015 17:32

Zimbabwe: Where Has Vic Falls Gone? 'Nearly Half' Has Dried Up
News24, Oct 11, 2015
Low water levels aren't just a problem in Zimbabwe's Lake Kariba - nearly half of the mighty Victoria Falls appears to have dried up, locals say. ...
Quoting 61. George1938:

please lol




that's why I said way way out
likely not happen
but there could be something similar in nature
on too the next run and the move up in time
just for laughs

gales of nov come early



Nino 3.4 currently holding at a +2.4C. No increase to +2.6C, no slight dip. a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analys is_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-w eb.pdf" Some record high temps in the Los Angeles area the last few days. A lot of record high minimum temps in the area the past few days:
... Recent record high minimum temperatures across southwestern
California...

Date location low temp old record

10/08 Long Beach ap 67 (tied) 67 set in 1983 and 1977
10/08 Burbank ap 66 65 set in 2008
10/08 Paso Robles ap 57 55 set in 1984... 1983...
1976 and 1972

10/09 Los Angeles ap 68 67 set in 1994 and 1966
10/09 Long Beach ap 69 66 set in 1984 and 1977
10/09 Burbank ap 73# 71 set in 1988
10/09 Woodland Hills 66 65 set in 1983
10/09 Sandberg 69 (tied) 69 set in 1980
10/09 Santa Barbara ap 63 62 set in 1966

10/10 Los Angeles Intl ap 74 66 set in 2014... 1994...
and 1966
10/10 Long Beach ap 73 67 set in 1984
10/10 Burbank ap 72 66 set in 1991
10/10 Woodland Hills 65 62 set in 1986
10/10 ucla 77 73 set in 1988
10/10 Camarillo ap 67 65 set in 1994
10/10 Oxnard NWS 66 65 set in 1994
10/10 Santa Barbara ap 62 (tied) 62 set in 1958

# set new record highest minimum temperature for the month of
October. The old monthly record was 72 degrees set on October 1,
2008target="_blank">Link

Link
High seventies in New Hampshire today. A very, very, comfortable day. And to top it all off we have those mid-west high temps!!!!! It is almost enough to forget that winter is coming!



In case you are wondering whether Ex-Joaquin is still around: it is, sauntering south along the coast of Portugal (see above in saved current loop in the left lower corner, a whiff of its former self - nevertheless Estofex has a little warning of severe weather for the region). According to Gfs and "Euro" the circulation will be traceable until Thursday when it will disolve off the southwestern coast of Spain where our PlazaRed lives :-)
Bye for today from Germany which might see first snow flakes even in the plains mid week due to an ULL, brrr (no heatwave around my place for a change, at least right now ;-).
Quoting 28. Camerooski:

People are discounting the possibility of a Hurricane hitting FL in 10 days, remember something will form in the Carrib, it all depends on where it is, the NAVGEM has it off the coast, allowing it to fully develop, most storms that form in the Carrib. during Oct. strike S FL
One thing to keep in mind is that almost as many hurricane hit the Florida Panhandle from Cedar Key west in October as in south Florida. Even if we get a storm in the Caribbean, a south Florida strike is not a done deal.
Taste of fall, south Florida style...



Quoting 40. TimSoCal:



I don't think so, but that chart shows an SST profile that in theory could support a TS making it all the way up here before it falls apart.
I've been in San Diego when the nearshore temperature was 80, so 75 definately isn't a record. The 30 degree temperatures off the tip of Baja are probably closer to a record.
Quoting 67. sar2401:

One thing to keep in mind is that almost as many hurricane hit the Florida Panhandle from Cedar Key west in October as in south Florida. Even if we get a storm in the Caribbean, a south Florida strike is not a done deal.
I never said a "done deal" I said most likely, but first we have to get a storm...
Quoting 67. sar2401:

One thing to keep in mind is that almost as many hurricane hit the Florida Panhandle from Cedar Key west in October as in south Florida. Even if we get a storm in the Caribbean, a south Florida strike is not a done deal.

If we do not quote the Florida wishcasting child (I believed he stated 9th grade?), maybe he will go away and find another bog to irritate? Or can we all put him on ignore? I have.
Quoting 32. Camerooski:

yes, but the GFS was the first too show it, they have a good history of showing things for a week, and then completely dropping it... Many ensembles are still showing a weaker version of the NAVGEM...
Which ensembles might those be? I've looked at all the ones I know about, and not one shows a low being anywhere near Florida in 192 hours.
Quoting 68. GeoffreyWPB:

Taste of fall, south Florida style...




Cooler air is definitely welcome, but, seriously? A projected low of 69 against against a record low of 61, and that's "near"? When the normal low is 73? And with icicles dropping from the thermometer, no less?

Methinks the StromTeam 5 graphics crew needs to cut back on an espresso or two... ;-)
Quoting 71. CitikatzSouthFL:


If we do not quote the Florida wishcasting child (I believed he stated 9th grade?), maybe he will go away and find another bog to irritate? Or can we all put him on ignore? I have.
Yes, he's young, but I do think he's trying to learn about tropical weather. We have some adults who are posting more junk models on a daily basis than Cam, and they should know better. HIs enthusiasm to experience a storm at his house gets more than a bit overdone, but I wasn't that good about keeping my emotions in check when I was 15 either. Once he actually gets a storm he'll understand why most adults are just as happy not to see one. If he can gain a better understanding and an objective view of tropical storm models, he may actually grow up to be a good meteorologist. :-)
Quoting 71. CitikatzSouthFL:


If we do not quote the Florida wishcasting child (I believed he stated 9th grade?), maybe he will go away and find another bog to irritate? Or can we all put him on ignore? I have.
pretty sure theres no age limit on here.
Quoting 64. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just for laughs

gales of nov come early





lol is it gonna be solid or liquid? :)
Quoting 75. Camerooski:

pretty sure theres no age limit on here.


Grothar is proof of that.
I really miss the charts of temps over a yearly interval. Is that data available somewhere?
Thanks for any info.
Charles
Quoting 77. DeepSeaRising:



Grothar is proof of that.
isn't he 70? Thats awesome! :)
Quoting 66. barbamz:



In case you are wondering whether Ex-Joaquin is still around: it is, sauntering south along the coast of Portugal (see above in saved current loop in the left lower corner, a whiff of its former self - nevertheless Estofex has a little warning of severe weather for the region). According to Gfs and "Euro" the circulation will be traceable until Thursday when it will disolve off the southwestern coast of Spain where our PlazaRed lives :-)
Bye for today from Germany which might see first snow flakes even in the plains mid week due to an ULL, brrr (no heatwave around my place for a change, at least right now ;-).

Not much evidence of rainfall here. We had about 22 millimetres or going on an inch in the Grazalema mountains near me but no more than a few showers in my town which is about 20 miles from the mountains.
All in all not anything noticeable but it put the dampers on the Columbus day or the national Spain day of the 12th of October.

Wow looks like a lot of rain coming to Guatemala which is not good news since they had recent mudslides. Last check they were 264 dead and 40 still missing according to Yahoo news. Any more rains could just exacerbate the problem.



Looks like the east pacific ends up stealing the energy.Makes sense as that is where the MJO's presence will be most dominant and the shear in the caribbean has not been conductive all season.
83. 7544
Quoting 81. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow looks like a lot of rain coming to Guatemala which is not good news since they had recent mudslides. Last check they were 264 dead and 40 still missing according to Yahoo news. Any more rains could just exacerbate the problem.






yep the run hasnt finish yet might show the fl strom bak again looking at that lol
84. IDTH
Quoting 53. Naga5000:

NAVGEM is not a reliable model for cyclogenesis prediction. Couple that with the uncertainty of any weather forecast model in the 7 day range and no otherwise reliable models in agreement, the NAVGEM solution is highly doubtful at the moment.

True its in the seven day mark which is pretty far but to say the nav is not reliable is a little too far, its not the best model but I remember when no model had Arthur developing except for the nav and it was spot on. I'm not saying that the nav will be right but I'm saying it shouldn't be discounted. I'm trying to stay away from making many comments for now because I made some mistakes over the past few weeks on this blog but I will never discount the nav based on its history of predicting storms that some models don't, that said right now there is a lot of shear right now in the carribean but the mjo is coming back into that area of the world which is why I wouldn't discount possible tropical development. Remember I'm not an expert.
Quoting 28. Camerooski:

People are discounting the possibility of a Hurricane hitting FL in 10 days, remember something will form in the Carrib, it all depends on where it is, the NAVGEM has it off the coast, allowing it to fully develop, most storms that form in the Carrib. during Oct. strike S FL


Dude, it's the NAVGEM...
Quoting 71. CitikatzSouthFL:


If we do not quote the Florida wishcasting child (I believed he stated 9th grade?), maybe he will go away and find another bog to irritate? Or can we all put him on ignore? I have.
Or how about I suggest this, remain disciplined and scroll past his post and don't worry about what he has to say? I mean the ignore feature is an overrated feature of this blog anyways, since you can still see posts from others who quote that person. They really need to make it like Facebook if you block the person they are gone from your sights for good. If Admin reads this post maybe they'll honor it and try to make some changes. I honestly have no problem with Camerooski, for that matter I have no problems with anyone on this blog. Shoot JFV, StormTop, StormW, Weather456, Atmoaggie, I continue to list off names after names could comeback to the blog for all I care. Wasn't that what made this blog as good as it was back in the days? Are we starting to get too sensitive on this blog now and because of that we are running people off the blog? We need to toughen up, but not as a bully. This is not a knock on you Citkatz, but it goes for everyone who continues to complain and try to belittle certain bloggers because of his/her differences. Can't we all just get along?
Just think of all the snow storm wish-casters that are out there, yet they kill a lot of people each Winter.

As a kid growing up in the Washington D.C. area, I was always wishing for a major snow storm during Winter months.
I also feel the reason we have lost a lot of bloggers is because of the recent decline of activity in the Atlantic, especially those threatening the U.S. Let's be honest here since 2005 this blog hasn't been the same, when there is a tropical storm threatening, let's use Florida as a perfect example, then it become "oh my God it's the end of the world", when really it's just a tropical storm with some winds and rain. I hate to say this, but it's like we need a powerful storm to bring back the good discussions and analysis and maybe some of the bloggers from the past may chime in as well. When there is nothing going there is nothing to talk about. Then that's where we start making up these fantasy storms in our minds and then when someone posts a model run that far out in time, then we get into ridiculous arguments about how that person is wishcasting, he/she is a troll, they should be put on ignore, and blah...blah...blah...when in reality it's the model output that's wishcasting. If someone is wishcasting then that means there is literally no model support for that and it's like me saying a Cat. 5 hurricane is going to hit Tampa Bay in 3 days. That's wishcasting, showing model runs out past whatever timeframe for a storm that could potentially hit somewhere is not wishcasting by that individual posting the model run.
Quoting 86. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Or how about I suggest this, remain disciplined and scroll past his post and don't worry about what he has to say? I mean the ignore feature is an overrated feature of this blog anyways, since you can still see posts from others who quote that person. They really need to make it like Facebook if you block the person they are gone from your sights for good. If Admin reads this post maybe they'll honor it and try to make some changes. I honestly have no problem with Camerooski, for that matter I have no problems with anyone on this blog. Shoot JFV, StormTop, StormW, Weather456, Atmoaggie, I continue to list off names after names could comeback to the blog for all I care. Wasn't that what made this blog as good as it was back in the days? Are we starting to get too sensitive on this blog now and because of that we are running people off the blog? We need to toughen up, but not as a bully. This is not a knock on you Citkatz, but it goes for everyone who continues to complain and try to belittle certain bloggers because of his/her differences. Can't we all just get along?
Im glad that you have no problems with me, for I have no problems with you. The blog is for expressing your ideas, and my ideas may be a bit progressive, but there is no reason to throw shots at me becuase of that... I am just trying to learn and do what I love! WEATHER!
Quoting 88. Gearsts:


The northern part of the Philipines (Luzon) has little population, and the southern part of Taiwan has little population so that is good considering a sub 900 mb hurricane is in that area.
Quoting 89. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I also feel the reason we have lost a lot of bloggers is because of the recent decline of activity in the Atlantic, especially those threatening the U.S. Let's be honest here since 2005 this blog hasn't been the same, when there is a tropical storm threatening, let's use Florida as a perfect example, then it become "oh my God it's the end of the world", when really it's just a tropical storm with some winds and rain. I hate to say this, but it's like we need a powerful storm to bring back the good discussions and analysis and maybe some of the bloggers from the past may chime in as well. When there is nothing going there is nothing to talk about. Then that's where we start making up these fantasy storms in our minds and then when someone posts a model run that far out in time, then we get into ridiculous arguments about how that person is wishcasting, he/she is a troll, they should be put on ignore, and blah...blah...blah...when in reality it's the model output that's wishcasting. If someone is wishcasting then that means there is literally no model support for that and it's like me saying a Cat. 5 hurricane is going to hit Tampa Bay in 3 days. That's wishcasting, showing model runs out past whatever timeframe for a storm that could potentially hit somewhere is not wishcasting by that individual posting the model run.
Next year when there is a La Nina, we may see a flood of bloggers... 2004/05 2.0
Sizzling is quite correct. Not boding well for fall foliage leaf peeps, though.

Tropics are quiet. Not much to speak of in the way of 5 day rains. Still a model or two showing phantom mayhem tearing up the Sunshine State, but I'll wait until an LLC is born before I join the excitement. ^_^





Quoting 67. sar2401:

One thing to keep in mind is that almost as many hurricane hit the Florida Panhandle from Cedar Key west in October as in south Florida. Even if we get a storm in the Caribbean, a south Florida strike is not a done deal.

A Wilma track without a storm. Hmmm.
Quoting 89. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I also feel the reason we have lost a lot of bloggers is because of the recent decline of activity in the Atlantic, especially those threatening the U.S. Let's be honest here since 2005 this blog hasn't been the same, when there is a tropical storm threatening, let's use Florida as a perfect example, then it become "oh my God it's the end of the world", when really it's just a tropical storm with some winds and rain. I hate to say this, but it's like we need a powerful storm to bring back the good discussions and analysis and maybe some of the bloggers from the past may chime in as well. When there is nothing going there is nothing to talk about. Then that's where we start making up these fantasy storms in our minds and then when someone posts a model run that far out in time, then we get into ridiculous arguments about how that person is wishcasting, he/she is a troll, they should be put on ignore, and blah...blah...blah...when in reality it's the model output that's wishcasting. If someone is wishcasting then that means there is literally no model support for that and it's like me saying a Cat. 5 hurricane is going to hit Tampa Bay in 3 days. That's wishcasting, showing model runs out past whatever timeframe for a storm that could potentially hit somewhere is not wishcasting by that individual posting the model run.

I agree. It hasn't been the same Caleb. How the heck are ya anyway? Hey, what ever happened to this handle of yours?

Link

And this one?

Link

Barely recognized ya, Buddy!!
Quoting 92. Camerooski:

Next year when there is a La Nina, we may see a flood of bloggers... 2004/05 2.0


Looking back these 10 years I remember there were amazing characters here. I remember StormW, JVF (or JFV?) just amazing drama oriented caste of people. But admittedly they gave character to this site when there was no storm to rally around.

Gee Grothar was a youngster at age 60 back then if my math serves me correctly.
8-)
oh do i wish if this was going too be right but wow that would be some storm for CA if that planed out


Camerooski - We have to get an increase in water vapor in the tropics for this potential storm to form. Cam - you have to pray for little shear, and heights or pressures to fall, and then convection to be initiated in the NW Caribbean. This is a tall order seeing that a Huge sprawling High will be situated over the East and Southeast coast in 7-10 days. I say never say never. But CAMEROOSKI if something does form SSTs are in the mid 80s and the strom will feed on LATENT HEAT of CONDENSATION which the Ocean provides 600 calories/per gram of water!! Yes A GRAM!! ITs akin to eating a steak a second and then running on a tread mill burning it off!! CAmerooski the Miami Hurricanes are not the Hurricanes. You my friend and confidant are THEE HURRICANE OR THE EYE OF THE STORM!! GO GET UM KID. I like Jim Morrison am The RIder of the Storm!!
Quoting 95. SandyTimes10:


I agree. It hasn't been the same Caleb. How the heck are ya anyway? Hey, what ever happened to this handle of yours?

Link

And this one?

Link

Barely recognized ya, Buddy!!




if i where you JFV i would keep your moth shut about some one other handle your not even supposed to be on here
Quoting 99. WeatherConvoy:

Camerooski - We have to get an increase in water vapor in the tropics for this potential storm to form. Cam - you have to pray for little shear, and heights or pressures to fall, and then convection to be initiated in the NW Caribbean. This is a tall order seeing that a Huge sprawling High will be situated over the East and Southeast coast in 7-10 days. I say never say never. But CAMEROOSKI if something does form SSTs are in the mid 80s and the strom will feed on LATENT HEAT of CONDENSATION which the Ocean provides 600 calories/per gram of water!! Yes A GRAM!! ITs akin to eating a steak a second and then running on a tread mill burning it off!! CAmerooski the Miami Hurricanes are not the Hurricanes. You my friend and confidant are THEE HURRICANE OR THE EYE OF THE STORM!! GO GET UM KID. I like Jim Morrison am The RIder of the Storm!!


Rider of the Storm would make a great handle on this site,
Dear Caleb I say you and I should our own weather show on scientific weather discussion with a twist, like the coriolis parameter, and or a discussion on the omega equation. That should get things rockin on the blog
Epac wins.
Dear rmbjoe1954 Good Evening. I am a moron for not taking that handle as I love the DOORS
Quoting 95. SandyTimes10:


I agree. It hasn't been the same Caleb. How the heck are ya anyway? Hey, what ever happened to this handle of yours?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/CalebDancemastah /archive.html

And this one?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/GTcooliebai/arch ive.html

Barely recognized ya, Buddy!!
I'm doing great! Got rid of those accounts, although I do still like to dance, planning on learning some Zumba too. What's the weather like in your location?
Quoting 98. SandyTimes10:


I think it was JFV, but I could be wrong. ^_^



i cant beleve what you this said in your post
Quoting 104. WeatherConvoy:

Dear rmbjoe1954 Good Evening. I am a moron for not taking that handle as I love the DOORS


1000 pluses.
mods i think some in fisher is going on here i can smell it
Quoting 105. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm doing great! Got rid of those accounts, although I do still like to dance, planning on learning some Zumba too. What's the weather like in your location?

That's great to hear! Yeah, I love cutting up a rug myself. Salsa always does it for me. Just Groovy weather. Ha sido tan clido y encantador aqu en Miami . ^_^

Link
Talk about a sudden blog activity burst.
Quoting 110. Tornado6042008X:

Talk about a sudden blog activity burst.

MJO?
Quoting 111. Gearsts:

MJO?
Major Juice Overflow.
Quoting 110. Tornado6042008X:

Talk about a sudden activity burst.

In blog activity? Can you believe during the hurricane we were getting at least 10 a minute.Now we're lucky to see one comment within a 5 minute span lol.
Quoting 99. WeatherConvoy:

Camerooski - We have to get an increase in water vapor in the tropics for this potential storm to form. Cam - you have to pray for little shear, and heights or pressures to fall, and then convection to be initiated in the NW Caribbean. This is a tall order seeing that a Huge sprawling High will be situated over the East and Southeast coast in 7-10 days. I say never say never. But CAMEROOSKI if something does form SSTs are in the mid 80s and the strom will feed on LATENT HEAT of CONDENSATION which the Ocean provides 600 calories/per gram of water!! Yes A GRAM!! ITs akin to eating a steak a second and then running on a tread mill burning it off!! CAmerooski the Miami Hurricanes are not the Hurricanes. You my friend and confidant are THEE HURRICANE OR THE EYE OF THE STORM!! GO GET UM KID. I like Jim Morrison am The RIder of the Storm!!


A dietary calorie is 1000 regular calories. Also, a calorie is a unit of energy, not power, so time is not directly a factor in the energy stored in a gram of water for each Celsius degree.
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

In blog activity? Can you believe during the hurricane we were getting at least 10 a minute.Now we're lucky to see one comment within a 5 minute span lol.


And most likely off topic.
Quoting 117. Gearsts:




The Pacific is still going strong for tropical development. I hope a post El Nino Atlantic season won't yield such activity.
Quoting 117. Gearsts:


OMG 7 days out you Philipines wishcaster!!! lol
Quoting 71. CitikatzSouthFL:


If we do not quote the Florida wishcasting child (I believed he stated 9th grade?), maybe he will go away and find another bog to irritate? Or can we all put him on ignore? I have.

Listen here I'm in the 9th grade and i feel offended by that. So could you do me a favor and keep your trap shut and stop judging people you've never met in person. We're young and we're excited about weather. Personally i think you owe him an apology. That was just something rude and disrespectful thing to say to a youngster. Now let's get back to weather.
Now that's what I call some beautiful Savannah weather.
I find this interesting...

These are the maximum annual temperatures at KIAD for the last couple of years:


2011: 105F
2012: 102F
2013: 96F
2014: 95F
2015: 94F


Of course now that I posted this their is probably going to be at least one 95 degree day here before the end of the year.
sounds like me when I'm drunk and make another drink XD okay, I'll leave. Sorry couldn't help it XD
Quoting 112. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Major Juice Overflow.
Quoting 120. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Listen here I'm in the 9th grade and i feel offended by that. So could you do me a favor and keep your trap shut and stop judging people you've never met in person. We're young and we're excited about weather. Personally i think you owe him an apology. That was just something rude and disrespectful thing to say to a youngster. Now let's get back to weather.
Thanks bro I appreciate it! :)
I believe in the Largorooski model...

Quoting 100. Tazmanian:





if i where you JFV i would keep your moth shut about some one other handle your not even supposed to be on here


Must you always spaz? Taz?
Quoting 126. PensacolaDoug:



Must you always spaz? Taz?

Great to see ya still rockin Doug.
128. beell
Quoting 125. GeoffreyWPB:

I believe in the Largorooski model...




You know, one of these days the NAV is gonna nail one while all the other models fail. There is a non-zero chance that this will happen. Could be some fun days on the blog.
Quoting 112. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Major Juice Overflow.


Just ask the Gator QB what the MJO stands for.
NAVGEM has a cat 3 moving up from the caribbean into Florida xD.Yeah I'll believe it when I see it if we even have a physical storm to track.
I just don't see that hurricane smashing into that strong Arctic high.
Quoting 130. washingtonian115:

NAVGEM has a cat 3 moving up from the caribbean into Florida xD.Yeah I'll believe it when I see it if we even have a physical storm to track.
Just watch them be the only model that says this, and they are right! xD
So, I'm getting the iPhone6s for Christmas, and I was wondering if anyone knows any really good weather apps for the phone...?
Quoting 124. Camerooski:

Thanks bro I appreciate it! :)

No problem bro. I'm just tired of some of the bloggers on here "personally attacking " us youngsters. This in a public blog, and we have the right to state our general opinion even if some on here disagree or dislike us. Who knows, we could be the future generation of meteorologists they're talking about ☺.
Quoting 82. washingtonian115:

Looks like the east pacific ends up stealing the energy.Makes sense as that is where the MJO's presence will be most dominant and the shear in the caribbean has not been conductive all season.
meaning Atlantic season is over?
I remember up in New England, in January that first 'mega' Blizzard on the 27th. It was only 72hrs until the day of the event, first model to pick it up was somehow the CMC out of all of them... So it is not impossible. The way I see it, usually, the worst of the worst storms come with about 4 days notice with accurate model information. I mean just look at Joaquin, Sandy, Then Snowtober of 2011, which actually hit the same day as Sandy, just one year prior. The wind storm of 2010 in Feb, which was a fail in forecasting on the part of my NWS. Called for 40mph gusts... gusted to 70 with a tree through the roof.

Quoting 131. Camerooski:

Just watch them be the only model that says this, and they are right! xD
Quoting 129. StormTrackerScott:



Just ask the Gator QB what the MJO stands for.


As a Gator, I can bet that Grier's answer doesn't have anything to do with the MJO we talk about on here.
Quoting 129. StormTrackerScott:



Just ask the Gator QB what the MJO stands for.
Hey Scott did you see this?

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Unreal. Looking at experimental grids from ECMWF upgrade coming in early 2016. Surface global 5136x 2560y = 0.07°
13 mb for 1 variable
Quoting 137. nygiants:


they increased the %
Loop eddy is breaking off in the Gulf of Mexico..
Quoting 141. Camerooski:

they increased the %
That product sucks.

Not much there.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 15 minhace 15 minutos State College, PA
Look out next hurricane season. CFSV2 sending enso 3.4 to neutral as Atlantic boils, Global temp falls 17 like 12">

Alex Kowaleski ‏@A_Kowaleski 8 minHace 8 minutos Ver traducción
@BigJoeBastardi CFS not the only climate model suggesting strong positive MDR anomalies next year. If dust is quiet, big season potential.">
Quoting 142. Skyepony:

Loop eddy is breaking off in the Gulf of Mexico..

Good eveneing Skye..The Gulf Steam has changed so much off of the Eastern Seaboard and over the Atlantic past 15 years. Would not be surprised to see more alterations in its course, affecting the weather on a large scale...as it always has.
Quoting 141. Camerooski:

they increased the %

Yes, thats correct
Quoting 143. Gearsts:

That product sucks.

Not much there.

That product has been actually reliable this season and that isn't showing formation currently, its showing it for 24-48 hours from now where all that dry air is not in place. Also...Conditions now will change storm or no storm..just stating the obvious thats all :D
Quoting 71. CitikatzSouthFL:


If we do not quote the Florida wishcasting child (I believed he stated 9th grade?), maybe he will go away and find another bog to irritate? Or can we all put him on ignore? I have.
Honestly, I can think of far worse things than Camerooski posting long range models that depict hurricanes approaching Florida. All kinds of people have been doing that for years on this blog. Oh, yes, sometimes it can get annoying if one lets it bother them and usually that is because one harbors fears of the long range model runs transforming into reality. Is it wishcasting? Perhaps but I think we have all done that in one way or another at one time or another, if truth be known. I can imagine if this blog had been around when I was 15 I might've done the same or something similar. So for that reason at least, I will not put Camerooski on ignore, nor will I put anyone else on ignore. As long as someone is not being openly hostile then I have nothing against them being perhaps a little overly enthusiastic, for lack of a better description.
Quoting 142. Skyepony:

Loop eddy is breaking off in the Gulf of Mexico..

I've been watching that evolve over the past week, a clockwise loop feeding back towards the FL peninsula. I was wondering if it is connected to recent higher than predicted tides lately..
Edit: Different eddy, I am looking at the FL east coast, and the eddy south of Cape Hatteras looping south.
Quoting 148. FLWaterFront:

Honestly, I can think of far worse things than Camerooski posting long range models that depict hurricanes approaching Florida. All kinds of people have been doing that for years on this blog. Oh, yes, sometimes it can get annoying if one lets it bother them and usually that is because one harbors fears of the long range model runs transforming into reality. Is it wishcasting? Perhaps but I think we have all done that in one way or another at one time or another, if truth be known. I can imagine if this blog had been around when I was 15 I might've done the same or something similar. So for that reason at least, I will not put Camerooski on ignore, nor will I put anyone else on ignore. As long as someone is not being openly hostile then I have nothing against them being perhaps a little overly enthusiastic, for lack of a better description.

I think Camerooski is an amazing guy who has a burning interest in meteorology and is brave enough to enter the discussions. As a teacher, I recognize a bright kid. He will learn. He has the bravado of a 15 year old who is likely to "go places" one day. When a kid has an enthusiasm in a science such as meteorology at his age, he's probably going to do something with it and be a success. He needs our encouragement, humor, and patience. I love to teach students like him. I would hate to see him bullied here for joining in. He will learn. Oh, how I wish I was fifteen again!
Quoting 84. IDTH:


True its in the seven day mark which is pretty far but to say the nav is not reliable is a little too far, its not the best model but I remember when no model had Arthur developing except for the nav and it was spot on. I'm not saying that the nav will be right but I'm saying it shouldn't be discounted. I'm trying to stay away from making many comments for now because I made some mistakes over the past few weeks on this blog but I will never discount the nav based on its history of predicting storms that some models don't, that said right now there is a lot of shear right now in the carribean but the mjo is coming back into that area of the world which is why I wouldn't discount possible tropical development. Remember I'm not an expert.
It's not a matter of the NAVGEM being a good or bad model. It's a matter of the NAVGEM showing a 975 mb low crossing Cuba in just six days when no other model of any kind does. What gives a model credence is when the other major models start to agree. Right now, the NAVGEM has no credence. The chances of a low which does not exist right now becoming a 975 mb storm crossing Cuba in six days is so low as to approach the vanishing point. The chances that there will be a major hurricane crossing Cuba in six days and the NHC just doesn't have a clue it's going to happen are so low as to approach the vanishing point. A yellow X is what's important, not any model.
Quoting 150. Alagirl:


I think Camerooski is an amazing guy who has a burning interest in meteorology and is brave enough to enter the discussions. As a teacher, I recognize a bright kid. He will learn. He has the bravado of a 15 year old who is likely to "go places" one day. When a kid has an enthusiasm in a science such as meteorology at his age, he's probably going to do something with it and be a success. He needs our encouragement, humor, and patience. I love to teach students like him. I would hate to see him bullied here for joining in. He will learn. Oh, how I wish I was fifteen again!
OMG! I don't think I could live through more than one lifetime with those raging hormones again. :-) We've had a lot of kids here over the years. Levi was a kid. TA was a kid. Astro was a kid. Caleb was a kid. Just four examples out of many that have grown up to be college students (or graduate students) well on their way to success in their chosen fields. Most ironic of all is that we wouldn't even have a place to easily grab some of these fanciful models if it wasn't for Levi's continued interest in the tropics. He at least partially developed that interest here when he was kid. Frankly, it's some of the adults here that behave like kids that bother me a lot more than the kids.
Quoting 149. guygee:

I've been watching that evolve over the past week, a clockwise loop feeding back towards the FL peninsula. I was wondering if it is connected to recent higher than predicted tides lately..
Edit: Different eddy, I am looking at the FL east coast, and the eddy south of Cape Hatteras looping south.
Dr, Masters has a good article about loop currents here.
Quoting 128. beell:



You know, one of these days the NAV is gonna nail one while all the other models fail. There is a non-zero chance that this will happen. Could be some fun days on the blog.
Gonna have to form quick. That's 6 days from now. Initially forms it on Thursday off Nicaraqua. Not holding my breath.
Quoting 149. guygee:

I've been watching that evolve over the past week, a clockwise loop feeding back towards the FL peninsula. I was wondering if it is connected to recent higher than predicted tides lately..
Edit: Different eddy, I am looking at the FL east coast, and the eddy south of Cape Hatteras looping south.

What I had posted earlier was the forecast (192hrs out) showing the loop eddy in the gulf really starting to break off. Was researching to write a blog I just finished about the persistent high tides. Looking at it close, the current Gulf Stream along the coast especially off of Florida, is really anemic right now. Next week it's forecast to be stronger. Using RTOFS, it was interesting to compare this year to last. Never seen it like this..

Here is nowcast.
Quoting 84. IDTH:


True its in the seven day mark which is pretty far but to say the nav is not reliable is a little too far, its not the best model but I remember when no model had Arthur developing except for the nav and it was spot on. I'm not saying that the nav will be right but I'm saying it shouldn't be discounted. I'm trying to stay away from making many comments for now because I made some mistakes over the past few weeks on this blog but I will never discount the nav based on its history of predicting storms that some models don't, that said right now there is a lot of shear right now in the carribean but the mjo is coming back into that area of the world which is why I wouldn't discount possible tropical development. Remember I'm not an expert.


Let me restate this. The NAVGEM has a history of false positives and suffers from many of the same issues as it's predecessor NOGAPS. Just because it hit on a storm that actually formed does not discredit its history of false positives. It is not known as a "reliable model" for forecasting tropical storm formation as mentioned many times over the years by Dr. Masters. Calling it not reliable is not taking it too far given its history and given the lack of major model support. Here is some reading regarding model evaluation from 2013, a few years old, but still full of good information to know.
157. IDTH
Quoting 156. Naga5000:



Let me restate this. The NAVGEM has a history of false positives and suffers from many of the same issues as it's predecessor NOGAPS. Just because it hit on a storm that actually formed does not discredit its history of false positives. It is not known as a "reliable model" for forecasting tropical storm formation as mentioned many times over the years by Dr. Masters. Calling it not reliable is not taking it too far given its history and given the lack of major model support. Here is some reading regarding model evaluation from 2013, a few years old, but still full of good information to know.

Maybe I should have done some research before I made that comment. Yet another mistake, ehh we all learn. While a 975 MB storm is unlikely to happen, it isn't impossible though. However I do believe the East Pacific is about to have most of the energy this week due to it being more favorable than the Caribbean (let's be honest everything is more favorable than the Caribbean). While I made my comment and it was foolish, it's not impossible to happen, all I said was don't discount the possibility, I understand though that the Nav comment is what people are trying to talk to me about. I just don't discount anything, but is it likely to happen, most likely not. This is my last comment of the night, goodnight everyone.
Quoting 140. Gearsts:


If this holds next year will be epic. I hope I see Cape Verde as Danielle of 2010.
That was good one-LOL
160. OCF
Quoting 36. Tornado6042008X:

Umm the 24C water temperatures of the coast of Southern California..... is that a record?



All I know is that it's 86F (30C) here at 11:00 p.m. In the middle of October. That ain't right. I mean, isn't one of the great blessings of coastal Southern California supposed to be that even on a hot day, it still cools off at night? Bah.
Shear remains screaming across the Western Caribbean. Disturbance has no chance until and if it moves North where shear is far lower and trending downward in the last day. Not much of a disturbance to discuss currently.
Quoting 162. DeepSeaRising:

Shear remains screaming across the Western Caribbean. Disturbance has no chance until and if it moves North where shear is far lower and trending downward in the last day. Not much of a disturbance to discuss currently.


Strong High Pressure over the Central US Thursday will build Southward over the Gulf with increasing N-NE
winds over the Central Gulf of Mexico this weekend according to NWS forecasts.
165. MahFL
It's going to be a warm warm winter.
166. MahFL
Quoting 129. StormTrackerScott:



Just ask the Gator QB what the MJO stands for.


Sad thing is he knew he was doing it too.
California Hopes for a Wet Winter
By: Christopher C. Burt , 8:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2015

The hype is on for a big El Nino-fueled rainy season this coming winter and spring in California. The latest data indicates that the developing (already in progress) El Nino event should become just as strong (perhaps even stronger) than the record setters of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Here’s a look at how those seasons panned out for the state precipitation-wise and where precipitation totals for this year and season now stand.

Link
Maybe the Cape Verde area still has one little blob to squeeze out.

Quoting 168. ColoradoBob1:

California Hopes for a Wet Winter
By: Christopher C. Burt , 8:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2015

The hype is on for a big El Nino-fueled rainy season this coming winter and spring in California. The latest data indicates that the developing (already in progress) El Nino event should become just as strong (perhaps even stronger) than the record setters of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Here’s a look at how those seasons panned out for the state precipitation-wise and where precipitation totals for this year and season now stand.

Link


What are you doing up so early? There isn't even a good argument going on!!!
cape verde season should be well behind us. but is it?
Are you declaring "blobs" this morning Grothar?
Quoting 170. Grothar:



What are you doing up so early? There isn't even a good argument going on!!!

I only plus people this early.
Quoting 172. PensacolaDoug:

Are you declaring "blobs" this morning Grothar?


Yo! Doug. I can't think of anything better to do.
Quoting 173. redwagon:



lol. I usually don't think clearly until about 10 AM. Even then I don't make much sense.
Quoting 177. LargoFl:


NAVGEM and CMC on board... lol
ECMWF and CMC sniffing out something at 240. We'll watch.
Quoting 149. guygee:

I've been watching that evolve over the past week, a clockwise loop feeding back towards the FL peninsula. I was wondering if it is connected to recent higher than predicted tides lately..
Edit: Different eddy, I am looking at the FL east coast, and the eddy south of Cape Hatteras looping south.


Morning Guy... we were as late as yesterday still experiencing above average tides along the Florida east coast, and it has been suggested that the cause is the slowdown of the Gulf Stream. There have been studies that suggest that IF the Gulf Stream stopped, we would experience a 3 to 5 feet increase in our daily tides that the GS protects us from the Atlantic pileup of water due to prevailing wind patterns. (this phenomenon is in ADDITION to global sea level rise.) This was VERY apparent after hurricane Sandy. We have experienced an average of an INCH a year sea level rise the past five years in southern Florida so as Keeper of our Gate says, faster and faster.. ol cyclone buster who spams the Climate Blog about turbines in the GS has yet to address this consequence. I shudder to think just how close our entire east coast, and economy came to total disaster with Wakeen.. had that dang thing run up the east coast on a King tide... including the Carolinas, it would have dwarfed Sandys horror.
Quoting 181. tiggerhurricanes2001:

ECMWF and CMC sniffing out something at 240. We'll watch.
All Aboard the HYPE TRAIN "Choo Choo!"
Here in S FL were are experiencing higher and higher high tides, and have had a coastal flooding advisory for the past 3 weeks. Here in Lauderdale by the Sea, they made a seawall on A1A (the long road that is next to the ocean). The seawall is extremely short, and will be easily infiltrated by tides when we are hit by another hurricane, which is bound to happen soon...
the tides locally were higher in nov 1994 still have a way to go. remember 1994? a slow yr for the atlantic (gordon in Nov) and remember what happened in 95. e cen fl.
Quoting 185. islander101010:

the tides locally were higher in nov 1994 still have a way to go. remember 1994? a slow yr for the atlantic (gordon in Nov) and remember what happened in 95. e cen fl.


1995 was the year of Hurricane Erin.
Quoting 184. Camerooski:

Here in S FL were are experiencing higher and higher high tides, and have had a coastal flooding advisory for the past 3 weeks. Here in Lauderdale by the Sea, they made a seawall on A1A (the long road that is next to the ocean). The seawall is extremely short, and will be easily infiltrated by tides when we are hit by another hurricane, which is bound to happen soon...


One of the great obstacles with "attempts" to protecting the SE Florida coast is the issue of levee's and sea walls... they do not work on our karstic substrate. Water just leaks under it. Upwards of SEVEN million south Floridians WILL be displaced before the turn of the next century... I won't be alive, but the home my wife and I live in WILL be a casualty. We have discussed "exit"strategies with our sons.. something EVERY south Floridian not of geezer age like Gro and me will be FORCED to address in their lifetimes..
Quoting 187. indianrivguy:



One of the great obstacles with "attempts" to protecting the SE Florida coast is the issue of levee's and sea walls... they do not work on our karstic substrate. Water just leaks under it. Upwards of SEVEN million south Floridians WILL be displaced before the turn of the next century... I won't be alive, but the home my wife and I live in WILL be a casualty. We have discussed "exit"strategies with our sons.. something EVERY south Floridian not of geezer age like Gro and me will be FORCED to address in their lifetimes..



Ah, I'm not going anywhere for awhile!!!!!!
NAVGEM going with a weaker system... Agreeing with CMC. On to something???
Quoting 187. indianrivguy:



One of the great obstacles with "attempts" to protecting the SE Florida coast is the issue of levee's and sea walls... they do not work on our karstic substrate. Water just leaks under it. Upwards of SEVEN million south Floridians WILL be displaced before the turn of the next century... I won't be alive, but the home my wife and I live in WILL be a casualty. We have discussed "exit"strategies with our sons.. something EVERY south Floridian not of geezer age like Gro and me will be FORCED to address in their lifetimes..


Hi Marty-

Yes. As I understand it all areas east of US1 will be impacted. Gro, Camerooski and others who live near oceanside will be affected sooner rather than later. I live just 2 miles inland from the lagoon in Indian River Estates- St. Lucie County. I expect my subdivision to become submerged in the Savannas.
Quoting 187. indianrivguy:



One of the great obstacles with "attempts" to protecting the SE Florida coast is the issue of levee's and sea walls... they do not work on our karstic substrate. Water just leaks under it. Upwards of SEVEN million south Floridians WILL be displaced before the turn of the next century... I won't be alive, but the home my wife and I live in WILL be a casualty. We have discussed "exit"strategies with our sons.. something EVERY south Floridian not of geezer age like Gro and me will be FORCED to address in their lifetimes..


Tide's in... Dirt's out!!!



We'll be like Stiltsville was off of Miami in the 70's...

navgem and canad. models are like two drunk sailors.
Quoting 190. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Marty-

Yes. As I understand it all areas east of US1 will be impacted. Gro, Camerooski and others who live near oceanside will be affected sooner rather than later. I live just 2 miles inland from the lagoon in Indian River Estates- St. Lucie County. I expect my subdivision to become submerged in the Savannas.


The Savannahas will someday soon be the "new" lagoon" be interesting to see how the encroachment into the St. Johns River watershed works out...
It's like, lol nothing to see here, just going to go dueling super typhoon again (well maybe one will)
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Good Morning. Nice looking wave in the Central Atlantic and some convection brewing in the Caribbean but nothing in terms of potential development from NHC; shear is pretty high across the board.



Nice to see my comment was deleted. How saying someone might be skipping school deserves deletion is beyond me. People post off topic all day!
Seafood hit by climate change, Australian study finds


"There will be a species collapse from the top of the food chain down."


The oceans have taken up about one third of all the world's increased carbon dioxide emissions since 1750, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In the upper 75 metres of the ocean, the global average temperature has warmed by 0.11 degree celsius per decade over the past 40 years, the IPCC says.

Meanwhile the World Meteorological Organisation says carbon dioxide input is increasing ocean acidity at a rate unprecedented in 300 million years - amounting to four kilograms of carbon dioxide per day, per person.


Link


Quoting 194. indianrivguy:



The Savannahas will someday soon be the "new" lagoon" be interesting to see how the encroachment into the St. Johns River watershed works out...


You can also imagine the impact to Lake O and Okeechobee City that sits outside of a levee. I always marvel at the levee near 441 when I go to Okee for business. I don't see how that city can maintain its existence after the turn of the century. It will be populated by bass, sunfish, and carp.
Quoting 198. SecretStormNerd:

Nice to see my comment was deleted. How saying someone might be skipping school deserves deletion is beyond me. People post off topic all day!

That's kind of a personal attack. You all have been attacking camerooski ever since he registered.
Quoting 180. Camerooski:

NAVGEM and CMC on board... lol
well it IS the gulf coast of Florida's danger month and Any LOW in the gulf needs to be watched closely,im waiting for sundays model runs and see if other models follow suit..its still early yet and any model runs today cant be believed.
Farther from the truth. I have never said anything negative towards him. I put a smily face at the end indicating I was joking. He even plussed it. How many people are sarcastic on here? The one time I say something, it gets deleted. That would mean 1/2 of the blog would need to be deleted also.
Quoting 201. tiggerhurricanes2001:


That's kind of a personal attack. You all have been attacking camerooski ever since he registered.
Quoting 198. SecretStormNerd:

Nice to see my comment was deleted. How saying someone might be skipping school deserves deletion is beyond me. People post off topic all day!

I don't think I have ever seen you made a personal attack on someone. Your posts are usually pretty good.
Look more like mid or late November on the sat pics..

Quoting 204. sporteguy03:


I don't think I have ever seen you made a personal attack on someone. Your posts are usually pretty good.

I love this blog to death and I'm uneasy because of some of the personal attackings on this site. You're a good person, you're nothing compared to The T person on this blog. I just watch out for cam and some of the other youngsters. See I'm only 14, I'm not even supposed to be on my phone in class lol.
Now this is what I call some beautiful Savannah fall-like weather. Thanks to an approaching cold front, breezy conditions should prevail over the region, with only 20% chance of isolated showers. A little rain in our far western counties, but nothing major to worry about. Make sure you bring a jacket all week, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, with low temps cooling to the upper 40s to low 50s late this week.
Looking like I'll get my first freezing temperatures here in College Park Md Monday morning. That's near normal. But in 144 hours things could change.
Anyone wanna hit South Beach?



Link
Quoting 209. georgevandenberghe:

Looking like I'll get my first freezing temperatures here in College Park Md Monday morning. That's near normal. But in 144 hours things could change.


lol our first frost was in mid September
Well for all you hurricane fans out there this is it. All done with no more hurricane this year, if there were so it would hit maybe tip of south Florida or Mexico. But for us in the gulf state area this is it. I'm ready for my ice and snow storms come on cold weather
Quoting 214. Accu35blog:

Well for all you hurricane fans out there this is it. All done with no more hurricane this year, if there were so it would hit maybe tip of south Florida or Mexico. But for us in the gulf state area this is it. I'm ready for my ice and snow storms come on cold weather


Is the current tally 10-4-2?
Quoting 214. Accu35blog:

Well for all you hurricane fans out there this is it. All done with no more hurricane this year, if there were so it would hit maybe tip of south Florida or Mexico. But for us in the gulf state area this is it. I'm ready for my ice and snow storms come on cold weather

Agree with you. It really was such an uneventful season this year. One more semester of school down here in Southern Florida and then the bird will fly.
Plenty of moisture in the Caribbean.

Quoting 214. Accu35blog:

Well for all you hurricane fans out there this is it. All done with no more hurricane this year, if there were so it would hit maybe tip of south Florida or Mexico. But for us in the gulf state area this is it. I'm ready for my ice and snow storms come on cold weather



i can't tell you how many times this season someone has wrote just this.....this year will be dead...there can be no storms in the mdr.....on and on and on....now....i'm safe from storms here in el paso...but don't mind me while i still watch
Improving winds





And, mercifully, this wreck of a blog comes to a screeching halt! ;-]
Quoting 187. indianrivguy:



One of the great obstacles with "attempts" to protecting the SE Florida coast is the issue of levee's and sea walls... they do not work on our karstic substrate. Water just leaks under it. Upwards of SEVEN million south Floridians WILL be displaced before the turn of the next century... I won't be alive, but the home my wife and I live in WILL be a casualty. We have discussed "exit"strategies with our sons.. something EVERY south Floridian not of geezer age like Gro and me will be FORCED to address in their lifetimes..

Besides which, what's the point in paying for a beachfront view when you end up with a view of a seawall?
Those who enjoy tracking tropical cyclone may want to turn their attention to the Western Pacific, where Koppu and 25W currently roam. With favorable conditions ahead, one or both may end up becoming very intense.


well I come in for a lunch time read
Quoting 231. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well I come in for a lunch time read

You've come to delete comments.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
236. vis0
Did weather stop?
i know lets ask GFS to start creating hybrid ghosts, that should get WxU back 45% of the members.

Here i'll donate a vis0 (aka Mr.X-NYC-smiley face) original signing of Today's Gemini storms in the NE to pay for the needed downgrade to create hybrid ghosts storms...just right for Halloween.

starting bid for the original signature is 3 cookie crumbs... (bids only acceptable is you post a weather report from your region -SE,NE,SW etc.)
Quoting 233. washingtonian115:

You've come to delete comments.
and I solved a problem till the next screen name anyway

hows yer day wash cooling behind the front here
breezy as well at times temps holding at 59 and falling slowly
during the day it seems
Quoting 182. indianrivguy:



Morning Guy... we were as late as yesterday still experiencing above average tides along the Florida east coast, and it has been suggested that the cause is the slowdown of the Gulf Stream. There have been studies that suggest that IF the Gulf Stream stopped, we would experience a 3 to 5 feet increase in our daily tides that the GS protects us from the Atlantic pileup of water due to prevailing wind patterns. (this phenomenon is in ADDITION to global sea level rise.) This was VERY apparent after hurricane Sandy. We have experienced an average of an INCH a year sea level rise the past five years in southern Florida so as Keeper of our Gate says, faster and faster.. ol cyclone buster who spams the Climate Blog about turbines in the GS has yet to address this consequence. I shudder to think just how close our entire east coast, and economy came to total disaster with Wakeen.. had that dang thing run up the east coast on a King tide... including the Carolinas, it would have dwarfed Sandys horror.

please source this claim of an inch a year sea level rise.....sounds ludicrous
239. vis0
...DOH! (*)?(*)
  ------      O  - noo000000000000! cookies Dr. Masters whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!
Quoting 238. sanflee76:


please source this claim of an inch a year sea level rise.....sounds ludicrous
Hello Sanflee..Might sound like an exaggeration now, but it will happen sooner than some people think. I,m swamped, or I would post some data.
Quoting 187. indianrivguy:



One of the great obstacles with "attempts" to protecting the SE Florida coast is the issue of levee's and sea walls... they do not work on our karstic substrate. Water just leaks under it. Upwards of SEVEN million south Floridians WILL be displaced before the turn of the next century... I won't be alive, but the home my wife and I live in WILL be a casualty. We have discussed "exit"strategies with our sons.. something EVERY south Floridian not of geezer age like Gro and me will be FORCED to address in their lifetimes..
Hi Riverguy, that is a possibility but so is the opposite, I would worry more about water and air pollution, at least that is something we can control. Saw an article about a form of water pollution in Florida Bay, that is causing a massive die off of the sea grass beds. That is supposedly caused from the excess nutrients from big sugar and farm runoff. Suppose to cause a yellow tint to the water too, as this happened in the past in the late 80s, this is something we should stop ASAP, at least we can control this, not much we can do about sea level rise at this present time. Do you live on one of the barrier island up their? We have property up that way near Vero, one place on the barrier islands and another on the West side of the Indian River.
Quoting 191. ChillinInTheKeys:



Tide's in... Dirt's out!!!



We'll be like Stiltsville was off of Miami in the 70's...


Fine with me, use to love going to Stiltsville when I was a young man, great parties, fishing and diving. Then along came Andrew and the rest is history.
Today is the secondary peak in the 2015 atlantic hurricane season. at the moment there are no disturbances to talk about, although some models are still hinting of development in the south west caribbean.