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Deadly Worldwide Coral Bleaching Episode Underway--Earth's 3rd on Record

By: Bob Henson 12:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2015

Earth is entering its third worldwide coral bleaching event of the last 20 years--a disturbing example of how a warming planet can harm vital ecosystems--NOAA announced on Thursday. NOAA also released an eight-month outlook that projects even more bleaching to come in 2016. The only other global-scale bleachings in the modern era of observations happened in 1998 and 2010. Global bleaching is defined as an event that causes bleaching in each of the planet’s major coral-reef areas. "We may be looking at losing somewhere in the range of 10 to 20 percent of the coral reefs this year," NOAA coral reef watch coordinator Mark Eakin said, in an interview with Associated Press. Florida started getting hit in August. The middle Florida Keys aren't too bad, but in southeast Florida, bleaching has combined with disease to kill corals, Eakin said. It has also hit Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic and is about to hit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, he said, adding, "you kill coral, you destroy reefs, you don't have a place for the fish to live."

The current global bleaching is the culmination of regional problems that began in mid-2014, when very warm conditions emerged in several parts of the tropics. Hawaii is one of those areas: as Jeff Masters reported in July, Hawaii experienced its worst bleaching on record in 2014 when record-warm ocean temperatures caused 50 - 70% of the corals sampled in Northeast Oahu's Kāneʻohe Bay to bleach. Another hard-hit area was the coral-rich Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, which extends hundred of miles northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. “Last year’s bleaching at Lisianski Atoll was the worst our scientists have seen,” said Randy Kosaki, NOAA’s deputy superintendent for the monument. “Almost one and a half square miles of reef bleached last year and are now completely dead.” This year, the same warm waters that have fed record numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes have laid the foundation for additional bleaching in and near Hawaii. "Hawaii is getting hit with the worst coral bleaching they have ever seen, right now," Eakin said. "It's severe. It's extensive. And it's on all the islands." In one part of northwestern Hawaii, "the reef just completely bleached and all of the coral is dead and covered with scuzzy algae."


Figure 1. NOAA's four-month bleaching outlook (top) shows a threat of bleaching continuing in the Caribbean, Hawaii and Kiribati, and potentially expanding into the Republic of the Marshall Islands. An extended bleaching outlook (bottom) showing the threat of bleaching expected in Kiribati, Galapagos Islands, the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline. The bleaching may affect Polynesia and most coral reef regions in the Indian Ocean by May 2016. Corals experiencing "Alert Level 2" conditions (dark red colors) can expect widespread mortality due to severe bleaching. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Healthy corals play host to microscopic algae (zooxanethellae) that live in their tissues (panel 1). The coral reef helps protect the algae and provides the plants with carbon dioxide and key nutrients. At the same time, the algae serve as food for the coral and are the source of coral reefs’ often-spectacular colors. During stressful conditions (panel 2), algae leave the coral tissue. If the stress continues for weeks to months, the food-deprived corals experience bleaching: they lose their color and become more susceptible to disease or death (panel 3). Image credit: NOAA.


El Niño isn’t helping
Rising global temperatures are increasing the likelihood of bleaching, but it is often El Niño that pulls the trigger for the most widespread events. A strong El Niño can suppress upwelling and raise sea-surface temperatures across much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific and other low-latitude areas. Because the algae embedded in coral depend on photosynthesis to survive, coral reefs are limited to the uppermost reaches of the ocean, where sunlight can filter through. When the sea surface temperature is 1°C warmer than the highest monthly mean temperature corals usually experience, coral polyps will expel the symbiotic algae that live in their tissues, exposing the white skeleton underneath and resulting in a "bleached" appearance. Death can result if the stress is high and long-lived--for instance, if unusually warm ocean temperatures persist for months.


Figure 3. Divers laid out transect lines to guide surveys that took place in the coral reef habitats of American Samoa and the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument from January to May 2015. Image credit: NOAA.


We may see major areas of bleaching in 2016 well beyond the period covered in the latest NOAA announcement. It is looking increasingly possible that a significant La Niña event will occur later in 2016 in the wake of the current El Niño event (see below). A recent study led by Joanie Klepyas (National Center for Atmospheric Research) examined heat stress in the Coral Triangle of the tropical Northwest Pacific. This is one of the world’s most expansive regions of coral reefs with nearly 600 varieties of coral and more than 2000 species of reef fish. Thanks to El Niño, much of the Coral Triangle is now experiencing sea-surface temperatures a bit below average, but the SSTs could rise quickly if El Niño segues into a moderate to strong La Niña. In 1998, this sequence of events led to the region’s worst bleaching event on record.

“I'm very concerned about the probability of intense bleaching in the Coral Triangle into 2016. NOAA's projections look a lot like what happened in the 1997-98 El Niño,” Kleypas told me in an email. “It is quite possible that the Coral Triangle region will experience warming later into 2016, even into the fall.”

When bleaching occurs year after year
Coral reef experts have warned that multi-year bleaching events could become increasingly common as our climate continues to warm in the 21st century. The possibility of two or more consecutive years of bleaching in Hawaii may be a harbinger of this future. Bleaching occurred from 2010 to 2013 in the Arabian/Persian Gulf, following widespread coral disease unrelated to bleaching in 2009. This was the first time four consecutive years of mass mortality have been observed in any coral reef on Earth. In a study published this spring, Bernhard Riegl and Sam Purkis (National Coral Reef Institute) took a close look at this four-year disaster and found what they call a “degradation cascade.” About two-thirds of the coral cover in the area studied was lost during the four-year event. Disease outbreaks often followed bleaching, and the corals that survived tended to shrink. “Certain coral species are more vulnerable to warming and disease than others, and as conditions degrade, one can expect to see big shifts in the coral communities,” noted Kleypas.

Disease fostered by warmer temperatures is a major threat to coral reefs in its own right, as explored in a 2015 study led by Jeffrey Maynard (Cornell University). “There is great spatial variation in the projected timing of the disease-favoring conditions, which is in keeping with much new research highlighting that the impacts of climate change will not be spatially uniform,” said Maynard and colleagues in the paper.

NOAA’s El Niño report for October
The well-publicized El Niño event of late 2015 continues to unfold pretty much as expected, according to the latest NOAA monthly diagnostic discussion. The latest probabilistic forecast issued by NOAA in conjunction with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society shows a greater than 95% chance of El Niño conditions persisting through the period Dec-Feb 2015-16, with a greater than 70% chance through March-May 2016. By the end of the period (May-July 2016), neutral conditions are the most likely outcome (just over 50%), although the odds of La Niña are beginning to rise quickly by that point. Major El Niño events are often but not always followed by a significant La Niña during the subsequent northern fall and winter.


Figure 4. Maximum temperatures for the week ending on October 6, 2015, soared above 36°C (96.8°F) across roughly half of Australia, with the heat especially intense for this time of year across southern parts of the continent. Image credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.

We can expect an increasing onslaught of El Niño signs and symptoms to emerge in the coming months. Across parts of Australia, vicious summer heat has arrived prematurely. Dozens of stations across southern Australia notched records over the last few days for their hottest day so early in the warm season. On October 5, the nation’s capital, Canberra, hit 31.8°C (89.2°F), the city’s earliest 30°C reading on record. Melbourne scored its earliest 35°C day ever recorded when it hit 35.8°C (96.4°F) on October 6. This hot spell follows the third-driest September in 106 years of Australian record-keeping. Extreme heat is a common byproduct of El Niño in the populous southeast part of Australia, as noted by the Bureau of Meteorology in a special statement on the October heat wave.

On a quirkier note, tuna crabs (pleuroncodes planipes) were reported on the beaches of Monterey Bay this week, far from their usual domain around Baja California. Their last sighting in Monterey was during the super-strong El Niño of 1982-83.

Have a great weekend, everyone! We'll be back with a new post on Monday at the latest.

Bob Henson

Heat Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A before and after image of the bleaching in American Samoa. The first image was taken in December 2014. The second image was taken in February 2015. Photographed by the XL Catlin Seaview Survey.



More ...
God, my Canes suck....
Quoting 479. SandyTimes10:

Yawn....




I won't even pay attention to the computer models unless they show a system within less than 10 days and the time frame moves closer with each run. Nothing to see as of now in the Atlantic basin. These storms that a model depicts 10-15 days out for a run or two are nothing to pay serious attention to.

The weather here in the Orlando area has been overall warm, humid and dry. Early this past week there were a few coolish nights in the mid 60s. We have had maybe 0.04" of rain since September 30th, coming from 3 light rain, drizzle events.
Quoting 498. hydrus:

You have mail O.N.M.


Just in case anybody was hating their WX here's Centex fcst Sun-Fri: 97/69-99/69-95/63-93/62-95/62-94/60-91/50.
Quoting 482. hurricanewatcher61:

18Z GFS has the system in the Gulf again, then again long ways out. Just watch and see for now.
384 hours out compared to 240 hours two runs ago. Quite a change.
Thank you for saying this

Quoting 504. HurrMichaelOrl:



I won't even pay attention to the computer models unless they show a system within less than 10 days and the time frame moves closer with each run. Nothing to see as of now in the Atlantic basin. These storms that a model depicts 10-15 days out for a run or two are nothing to pay serious attention to.

The weather here in the Orlando area has been overall warm, humid and dry. Early this past week there were a few coolish nights in the mid 60s. We have had maybe 0.04" of rain since September 30th, coming from 3 light rain, drizzle events.
Quoting 490. RJY:

Newsflash..... WU isn't social media. Ive been a member of WU long before the advent of FB or Twitter.....just so you have a baseline.


Yes. My point exactly. WU had an internet community long before Facebook or Twitter showed up on the net.

I saw your join date when I read your comment criticizing the conversation in these blog comments. I also noticed, by the comment number (now 18), you have not participated much on the blogs here, so I don't blame you for not realizing wu does have a community and is a form of social media "for those who love weather and the outdoors." We, those of us who participate regularly, care bout each other, especially during bad weather. I've been here since the hurricanes in 2005, maybe three years your junior in membership years. Still, you seem to have a little catching up to do as far as the site's offerings.

People don't talk much about their personal lives in Doc M/Bob Henson's blog comments. The member blogs and comments are more likely to reflect individual taste and personal lives. The common thread for this community is love of weather and the outdoors. You might want to browse through the member blogs if you wish to understand what I mean by wunderground being social media. WE share and learn about weather and about life in general. Many who participated here as youngsters have gone on to higher education in meteorology - always with encouragement and praise from the wunderground community. Some members are in process of moving into college studies now. One couple (maybe more) met here and married with folks they'd met on these blogs in attendance. We've had wars and fakes and trolls and sometimes the blogs seem to house a giant dysfunctional family. Yet, in the end, we have fun and respect each other even if we disagree.

Wunderground has a internet community, and you are welcome to participate, as is any wu member, in these blogs by posting a blog and commenting on others, or by taking part in the excellent photography "side" of the site, where a wonderful community of photographers interact socially every day. I hope you will.

(edit for clarity after posting)

Ps. If you want to talk about this further, we can do it at my wu blog comments which you'll find by clicking my handle.
Quoting 479. SandyTimes10:

Yawn....





there really no need too post that
Quoting 502. Camerooski:

God, my Canes suck....
Dolphins get rid of Philbum and Coyle, now it's time for the U to get rid Golden and staff. Lets go Canes, beat the Semi Noles.

Nora powering up as it crosses 140 W into the CPac jursidiction.
Quoting 502. Camerooski:

God, my Canes suck....

Sorry buddy... go Noles :)
No dos a cero this time.

514. vis0
Quoting 405. sar2401:

Money is also the root of every trip to the grocery store. Money by itself is not the problem, it's the lust for more money just for the sake of having more money. I guess that's at least part of the definition of greed.
(apology pressed post instead of review)

Grammar somewhat corrected.
To me any addiction is when ones consciousness loses the ability to maintain ones self's (carnal body) conscience connected to ones soul and if one has a deep conscience a connection all the way to ones spirit (that's right across the red sea...middle of ones main brain lobes, salty ocean your conscience, sweet ocean souls conscience, the golden chariot your deep thought...test on %u05D9%u05D5%u05DD %u05E9%u05E0%u05D9).
But when that (conscience) is taken over by ANYTHING that one desires by more than 50% of ones conscience, then one starts making decisions that are influenced not by the greater long lasting good but by that vice...

 (be it that the vice is hereditary  or any of the other 4 ways vices enter ones life)
 
...changing once choice for short term pleasures.

no, WxUrs i'm not talking of Miami Vice.


Has Grothar made a call on the comma (low) coming of the S. Carolina coast? just to pg 9 so if Grothar did i'll catchup
NASA's GEOS-5 model has still persisted with a SW Caribbean storm pulling together next week. It's continued to move it up in time. Now it's pulling together around 120hrs.



Yesterday it had it struggling some as it was shoved against Central America more. Today the final frame was another monster trying to thread the gap..
I tried to show my wife this pic as we dive a lot and live on the ocean and I am sad to say her comment was its Saturday night things are bad enough why show me this?.......point is what can we do? I am sitting here watching the usmnt and my ac is running its 77 inside because cayman is hotter than hell next to the dessert .......we burn diesel here at cuc which is horrific given our sun and wind potential .......in other words what do we do! We keep seeing how bad it is I know that....we recycle we own a green company but we can only do so much......everyone around us does nothing and they don't care.....
Quoting 501. JohnLonergan:

A before and after image of the bleaching in American Samoa. The first image was taken in December 2014. The second image was taken in February 2015. Photographed by the XL Catlin Seaview Survey.



More ...
Quoting 455. sar2401:

Looks like a low on a stalled front/trough that terminates with a weaker low just off the east coast of Florida. There's scattered convection all along the front. The whole mess should drift NE tomorrow and shouldn't impact the Bahamas.


Aha! This explains the rain this afternoon ... and the bit about not coming this way? Well, I'll believe that when I see it .... [remembering Joaquin's track]....
Quoting 468. knightwarrior41:

interesting that the marine disco mentions it while the weather disco drops it.lets wait and see what happens because time will tell
Marine interests more likely to be impacted in the early stages ...
Quoting 488. RJY:

Why are you taking this personally unless.....you're including yourself in the group about which I refer to? This happens all the time on Masters' blogs. If you're in that group you're in that group. In other words, it is what it is as they say and my original statement was made because it's frustrating to want to participate in a relevant discussion when it's anything but.


Make relevant comments if you want a focused discussion. Right now you're not contributing much. What are you talking about, tropics wise?
Quoting 516. 19N81W:

I tried to show my wife this pic as we dive a lot and live on the ocean and I am sad to say her comment was its Saturday night things are bad enough why show me this?.......point is what can we do? I am sitting here watching the usmnt and my ac is running its 77 inside because cayman is hotter than hell next to the dessert .......we burn diesel here at cuc which is horrific given our sun and wind potential .......in other words what do we do! We keep seeing how bad it is I know that....we recycle we own a green company but we can only do so much......everyone around us does nothing and they don't care.....

A lot of this is also true for the Bahamas, sadly. People can be so resistant to change...
Canes FSU coming down to the wire again CMON CANES!!!!
Nora is looking better organized as it enters the Central Pacific.

We'll have to see how much ACE the storm can produce. The index stands at 94 units so far; the record is 107 units in 1994.

Quoting 319. HurriHistory:



It was serious! Im not the one making the prediction. The GFS Model is, which is just one of many prediction models
that a lot of people make such a big deal about day in and day out
throughout the Hurricane Season, as well as every little yellow x and
5-day cone put out by the NHC. Mabey you were one of the many people who
thought that TS Erika was going to lash the east coast of Florida as a
cat.-1 Hurricane only to be ripped apart over the D.R. So I think you
need to CHILL OUT DUDE! This entire blog is mainly made up of predictions spit out by computers that rarely ever come to fruition.
Indeed. Thanks for verifying that for me.

And I only tentatively expected Erika to do that. I was certainly preparing for a chase under the assumption that it would. But I'm a competent enough forecaster to know that such a scenario was entirely dependent on its interaction with Hispaniola.

Also, I've become extremely jaded toward this place because of posts like this, and I no longer consider myself a regular. I've moved on, only popping in occasionally. The reason we're having this conversation is because of your chosen terminology. "Florida has 11 days to prepare" for a modeled storm is completely asinine, and implies that a) the projected threat actually exists and is currently tangible, and b) Florida is at definite risk. B fails as a conclusion because A fails as a premise.
Think it's time to play "Saturday Night Fever" ?
Quoting 507. George1938:

Thank you for saying this




Just a weather update from my location. Nothing exciting, I know! Just felt compelled to share after missing out on any good rains today. Night everybody.
524. OCF
Quoting 402. PedleyCA:


The END is in Sight....

102 today in Long Beach compared to 105 yesterday. Progress, I guess. Tomorrow morning is the Long Beach Marathon. Ouch.
Quoting 406. sar2401:

OK, but what about the chances of snow for Christmas. Surely the GFS covers that as well.
this is not the gfs it's the Cfs

Quoting 406. sar2401:

OK, but what about the chances of snow for Christmas. Surely the GFS covers that as well.
hehehe I love your cynicism, dude. You're so much like me it ain't even funny. :P
Quoting 516. 19N81W:

I tried to show my wife this pic as we dive a lot and live on the ocean and I am sad to say her comment was its Saturday night things are bad enough why show me this?.......point is what can we do? I am sitting here watching the usmnt and my ac is running its 77 inside because cayman is hotter than hell next to the dessert .......we burn diesel here at cuc which is horrific given our sun and wind potential .......in other words what do we do! We keep seeing how bad it is I know that....we recycle we own a green company but we can only do so much......everyone around us does nothing and they don't care.....



I understand where you are coming from. As individuals, we do what we can, in anyway that we can. Beyond this there is little to do except hope that others are doing all they can as well. The truth is that it is not the individual efforts that will make any difference. Any single country's efforts alone will not make enough of a difference. This is a global problem that will require global solutions. The only extra that I can do is to never vote for another politician that will only exhibit an 18th century understanding of the 21st century Science. Should they be that far behind the curve, they should not be writing policy for anyone.
Nole's are Cook-ing.
Quoting 480. RJY:

What drives me nuts is how so far you people drift in discussion from the topics of the blog. I'm sorry if I offend anyone but REALLY????? Take it to Reddit or another popular forum.


RJY ..Take it to Reddit or another popular forum? Clear skies and send me some of that model rain coming off Florida cause ya never know could reach my place..
Quoting 522. Grothar:

Think it's time to play "Saturday Night Fever" ?

John Travolta got nothing on you my friend..

Quoting 480. RJY:

What drives me nuts is how so far you people drift in discussion from the topics of the blog. I'm sorry if I offend anyone but REALLY????? Take it to Reddit or another popular forum.
noonecarespleasegoaway.jpg

I'm NOT sorry if I offend you.
I know this is not unheard of, but this is my type of weather, I like feeling that adrenaline of a blustery wind moving me around, went through Frances and Jeanne in the Tampa Bay area those 2 storms were good for that, I know other areas weren't as fortunate and suffered heavy loss. Still this is well within the threshold I can handle, anything higher and I would probably hunker down or end up getting tossed around. I guess I'm a thrill seeker, nothing wrong with that, just have to be safe with your life. I don't know if I can handle the cold though, I'm more of a warm weather guy.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

MTZ009-010-048-111100-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151012T0000Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROWNING...MARIAS PASS...LOGAN PASS...
CUT BANK...CHOTEAU
347 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND POWER LINES MAY OCCUR.
TRAVEL ON NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS...ESPECIALLY BY HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG
CROSSWINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.
Quoting 531. Wolfberry:


John Travolta got nothing on you my friend..


I'm often mistaken for him. Not so much on looks, but I still wear a white suit and bell-bottoms.
I must say though property damage with sustained winds of 40 mph? I'm not so sure about that. Most structures should be able to hold up to that strength even mobile homes and trailer parks. The severe threshold for winds is gusts to 58 mph. It's usually this gust of wind or a quick downburst that would cause damage, especially if it picks up debris and pelts it towards the house. Not saying NOAA should refine it, but I would be interested in finding out any damage reports out of this high wind event in Montana and North Dakota.
1000+ on that!

Quoting 521. KoritheMan:

Indeed. Thanks for verifying that for me.

And I only tentatively expected Erika to do that. I was certainly preparing for a chase under the assumption that it would. But I'm a competent enough forecaster to know that such a scenario was entirely dependent on its interaction with Hispaniola.

Also, I've become extremely jaded toward this place because of posts like this, and I no longer consider myself a regular. I've moved on, only popping in occasionally. The reason we're having this conversation is because of your chosen terminology. "Florida has 11 days to prepare" for a modeled storm is completely asinine, and implies that a) the projected threat actually exists and is currently tangible, and b) Florida is at definite risk. B fails as a conclusion because A fails as a premise.

Quoting 535. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I must say though property damage with sustained winds of 40 mph? I'm not so sure about that. Most structures should be able to hold up to that strength even mobile homes and trailer parks. The severe threshold for winds is gusts to 58 mph. It's usually this gust of wind or a quick downburst that would cause damage, especially if it picks up debris and pelts it towards the house. Not saying NOAA should refine it, but I would be interested in finding out any damage reports out of this high wind event in Montana and North Dakota.


Maybe that's why they call it "Great Falls"
Gusts to 70mph?

Quoting 535. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I must say though property damage with sustained winds of 40 mph? I'm not so sure about that. Most structures should be able to hold up to that strength even mobile homes and trailer parks. The severe threshold for winds is gusts to 58 mph. It's usually this gust of wind or a quick downburst that would cause damage, especially if it picks up debris and pelts it towards the house. Not saying NOAA should refine it, but I would be interested in finding out any damage reports out of this high wind event in Montana and North Dakota.
Climate change post for the night and I'm going to sleep!

Cold 'Blob' in North Atlantic Ocean May Affect Weather in Europe, Eastern US

Matches up with the sst and anomaly graphics on Levi's website. Crazy ish going on with the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns.





Good Sunday morning with a quick look into the Mediterranean where the center of the stormy low (996mb) is now off the coast of southern Croatia.

Development of the rainfall on its southern side over night:


Accumulated precipitation in the last 24 hours (surely not with the exact measurement of the highest amounts (have a look here on the right side, huh), but you get an impression of the focus of the downpours):


Thunderstorms for the Mediterranean
BBC weather video, 10 October 2015 Last updated at 16:22
Thunderstorms across parts of the Mediterranean could cause flash flooding, plus the prospect of snow for central and southern areas of Poland.
BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes has the details.


It's too early to get any English news of the probable damage of the torrential rains in the Balkans. I'll have a look tonight as I'm out with family for the rest of the day. All the best everyone!
Quoting 516. 19N81W:

I tried to show my wife this pic as we dive a lot and live on the ocean and I am sad to say her comment was its Saturday night things are bad enough why show me this?.......point is what can we do? I am sitting here watching the usmnt and my ac is running its 77 inside because cayman is hotter than hell next to the dessert .......we burn diesel here at cuc which is horrific given our sun and wind potential .......in other words what do we do! We keep seeing how bad it is I know that....we recycle we own a green company but we can only do so much......everyone around us does nothing and they don't care.....




Hate to say, but my daughter reacts the same way. Which is sad, as she's part of the future to hopefully grow up with a different foresight about energy, pollution etc. Thing is, it's the big companies that have lead the way, that need to change the way, as most people like to follow and be spoon fed. Oil companies could easily put their money into renewables, instead of more rigs, exploratory drilling, fracking and all that involves etc, if they wanted to. They would still be able to charge for electricity and make money. If they were doing that, then car makers would be more inclined to do more with electric, as it would help make that more and more viable if the energy suppliers were taking things that route. But, I guess those who run them, are also short sighted. Grasping at the hope of discovering a new oil field or fracking, when they could use the money to bring about change. Even Saudi's, they surely have immense possibility to change to solar and push it that way. Whatever way the energy suppliers go, is what the majority has to follow, so change probably will never really come until the oil runs dry, I don't even think some super-climate disaster happening would change them, as they'd blame it on something else, so would surely be when it all runs dry and the 'have' to take on new ways....though they may frack the life out of the planet first.

Quoting 540. barbamz:


Good Morning Barb,
We thank you for letting us have Jurgen Klinsmann for a few years ,now we would like to give him back ;-}
Just read about the updated damage cost from Erika to Dominica and it's now $482.8 million worth of damage, which is just below their annual GDP of $497 million. Absolutely devastating.

Link
Good morning, looking at satellite pics this morning, looks like there is some rotation going on in the south central Caribbean. Is this the area that the GFS is picking up on for potential development?
Morning all I see is dry sinking air again in the nw Carib that said we got a splash of rain yesterday from daytime heating.....and a very hot October it has been so far
Quoting 461. GTstormChaserCaleb:

First off, I never said the storm was hitting Florida, you are referring to someone else, so let's get that straight. My point still stands you do trash the models from day 1 you always have something negative to say about the models, especially the CMC model, don't deny it. I never hear once you give credit for model performance on what they are really meant to be used for and that is getting a better idea of the synoptic scale pattern and where your areas of troughs and ridges are going to be downstream. Each model specializes in something. The CMC model is actually quite good in its performance with mid-latitude cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF are really good in scoping out areas in which tropical development is possible in addition to the upper level patterns, while the HWRF and GFDL are pretty good with intensity of a developed storm. I'm just saying for once take it easy with these computer models. It's okay to be critical of the model, but do so civilly and respectfully. I'm not even questioning the model output at 240 hours. If you look closely the disturbance actually begins developing in a few days, you look for the vorticity between 850-1000 mb. tropical systems begin there origins near the surface and work there way up, as I mentioned in earlier posts and a few days ago it may take some time to get going due to land interaction, windshear, and there is the possibility of competing circulations with an EPAC disturbance. I highlighted all of these scenarios a couple days ago and I am only anticipating at best a tropical storm out of this set-up.


I observe at times, and a certain blog personality blogs for the sake of challenging anyone or anthing that they can, but only as it suits them because they frequently contadict themselves. Dont get caught up in that web. One particular blogger was trashing model outputs UNTIL it showed one hittig his state. Then he actually said " I believe they might have it right this time" Hahahaha...ban me ( boo hoo)
I guess I should not close my shutters based on a 384 hour model???
Quoting 546. 19N81W:

Morning all I see is dry sinking air again in the nw Carib that said we got a splash of rain yesterday from daytime heating.....and a very hot October it has been so far


Good morning!
The area off Panama/ Colombia showing some decent convection this morning, as mentioned, associated with the 1009 MB 'Colombia low 'on todays surface chart. One can only hope we get some cooling rain from this if it heads our general direction next week. Skypony shows some of the forecast models in agreement

Quoting 545. hurricanewatcher61:

Good morning, looking at satellite pics this morning, looks like there is some rotation going on in the south central Caribbean. Is this the area that the GFS is picking up on for potential development?


Cumulative 0-48h TC Formation Probability
Quoting 548. jjjerry1:

I guess I should not close my shutters based on a 384 hour model???

I would start looking for these if I were you.
Quoting 534. Grothar:



I'm often mistaken for him. Not so much on looks, but I still where a white suit and bell-bottoms.
Reported....twice....
might be better to pack a back pack and hike out of the evac zones. the roads will be a qridlocked. we are very vulnerable right now to a big hit because of this high water. a six foot surge on top of this would flood the islands e cen florida
Quoting 553. islander101010:

evac signs? might be better to pack a back pack and hike out of the evac zones. the roads will be a qridlocked.
Andrew went between both houses, should have lost atleast one several times over the past 55 years. My friend in Stuart had the eye of Francis Jeane and Wilma. In Key Largo I leave 2 days before a watch and I only have the 18 mile stretch. People in the lower keys are going to be very very sorry some day.
Quoting 534. Grothar:



I'm often mistaken for him. Not so much on looks, but I still wear a white suit and bell-bottoms.

You left out platform shoes.
557. RJY
You bloviate AND continue to miss the point. Have a great day.

Quoting 508. Barefootontherocks:

Yes. My point exactly. WU had an internet community long before Facebook or Twitter showed up on the net.

I saw your join date when I read your comment criticizing the conversation in these blog comments. I also noticed, by the comment number (now 18), you have not participated much on the blogs here, so I don't blame you for not realizing wu does have a community and is a form of social media "for those who love weather and the outdoors." We, those of us who participate regularly, care bout each other, especially during bad weather. I've been here since the hurricanes in 2005, maybe three years your junior in membership years. Still, you seem to have a little catching up to do as far as the site's offerings.

People don't talk much about their personal lives in Doc M/Bob Henson's blog comments. The member blogs and comments are more likely to reflect individual taste and personal lives. The common thread for this community is love of weather and the outdoors. You might want to browse through the member blogs if you wish to understand what I mean by wunderground being social media. WE share and learn about weather and about life in general. Many who participated here as youngsters have gone on to higher education in meteorology - always with encouragement and praise from the wunderground community. Some members are in process of moving into college studies now. One couple (maybe more) met here and married with folks they'd met on these blogs in attendance. We've had wars and fakes and trolls and sometimes the blogs seem to house a giant dysfunctional family. Yet, in the end, we have fun and respect each other even if we disagree.

Wunderground has a internet community, and you are welcome to participate, as is any wu member, in these blogs by posting a blog and commenting on others, or by taking part in the excellent photography "side" of the site, where a wonderful community of photographers interact socially every day. I hope you will.

(edit for clarity after posting)

Ps. If you want to talk about this further, we can do it at my wu blog comments which you'll find by clicking my handle.
Really not a whole heck of a lot to speak of in the weather department for at least the next week. Pretty quiet. Quiet is good.

Quoting 555. GeoffreyWPB:




Very trustworthy models.
Quoting 558. SandyTimes10:

Really not a whole heck of a lot to speak of in the weather department for at least the next week. Pretty quiet. Quiet is good.




Down here in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers) only 1.25" of rain this month with no rain for at least the next 5 days.
Quoting 480. RJY:

What drives me nuts is how so far you people drift in discussion from the topics of the blog. I'm sorry if I offend anyone but REALLY????? Take it to Reddit or another popular forum.

Oh for sure. That's why I don't stay around for very long. If you gripe about it too much, even though it's part of the rules, you can get banned. I think it keeps a lot of people away. It's their club. It's also about the worst place to get reliable weather info too.
If you use some of the information on here, check it very carefully for accuracy before you post it somewhere else.
Quoting 545. hurricanewatcher61:

Good morning, looking at satellite pics this morning, looks like there is some rotation going on in the south central Caribbean. Is this the area that the GFS is picking up on for potential development?


Likely not, while shear is low over the GOH, where this disturbance is, shear is in the 20 knot range. Should be moving into an area of favorable shear, but it's window is over Cuba and northward for development. Moves too far west and north it'll be sheared to death. Will be interesting to see if convection can fire and sustain over the next few days. Get a blob with some meat on it's bones, maybe the models will grab on to development possibilities. Right now, limited convection and virtually no model consensus means the NHC will keep an eye on it, but for now no signs of the crayons being broken out.
Blog is as good as it's ever been. It's constructive, there's respect, great information, and up to the minute updates on conditions. Lots of great minds and WU is not lacking in witty banter. Of coarse the NWS/NHC is the go to place for actionable information. This is a blog and should be treated as such. This is a great place to get reliable weather info. Such as in life, there will always be malcontents, who can pick out the flaws in anyone and anything. While never balancing that with all the great positives.
Quoting 558. SandyTimes10:

Really not a whole heck of a lot to speak of in the weather department for at least the next week. Pretty quiet. Quiet is good.


nahh there will be a lot on here with a possible hurricane at 384 hours hitting florida so you know all the Florida people will be scared due to there's a .0001% of a hurricane hitting them,well some of them anyways
Quoting 472. sar2401:

Really? You didn't notice me saying I thought the ECMWF was likely going to be the correct model with Joaquin before the other models turned? You never noticed me giving the ECMWF props for nailing what was the most difficult set of forecast synoptics in a long time? My response was to those using the 240 hour and longer GFS to tout a Florida landfall. You're the one who decided that was aimed at you when it wasn't. The models are not sentient beings. They are tools. Like most tools, they should be judged on performance. The ECMWF did a great job with Joaquin, but it too has its weaknesses. The GFS was a close second until Joaquin, and I'd never discount it once it was less than seven days out. The CMC's performance with tropical cyclones the last two years has been terrible for a major model. Contrary to what you state, the Canadians believe they have a global model that performs well all year in all locations, and that's clearly not working out. I have no idea when I've been other than civil when discussing models.


Wow! I never thought things would get so boring on this blog as to have to read about two guys fighting over a bunch of computer models. My goodness. Is this what we've come to? Is this how it all ends? Is this what life is all about? UGH! I think I'll go watch a Carl Perkins video on UTube. Go Cat Go!
Pretty strong waterspout hit the Tampa area.Did some damage as well
Russian jet shot down by Turkey today. AGW, ISIS, possible war with Russia and Iran, a record likely El-Nino not yet done with the world, 17 trillion in debt, carbon footprint on climate only going upward, historic water sources disappearing, more refugees than at any time in world history, and on and on the beat goes. Prayers for the world and all the suffering in it.
Quoting 533. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I know this is not unheard of, but this is my type of weather, I like feeling that adrenaline of a blustery wind moving me around, went through Frances and Jeanne in the Tampa Bay area those 2 storms were good for that, I know other areas weren't as fortunate and suffered heavy loss. Still this is well within the threshold I can handle, anything higher and I would probably hunker down or end up getting tossed around. I guess I'm a thrill seeker, nothing wrong with that, just have to be safe with your life. I don't know if I can handle the cold though, I'm more of a warm weather guy.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

MTZ009-010-048-111100-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151012T0000Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROWNING...MARIAS PASS...LOGAN PASS...
CUT BANK...CHOTEAU
347 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND POWER LINES MAY OCCUR.
TRAVEL ON NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS...ESPECIALLY BY HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG
CROSSWINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Wow. 70 mph winds through Cut Bank would NOT be good.....
Quoting 568. DeepSeaRising:

Russian jet shot down by Turkey today. AGW, ISIS, possible war with Russia and Iran, a record likely El-Nino not yet done with the world, 17 trillion in debt, carbon footprint on climate only going upward, historic water sources disappearing, more refugees than at any time in world history, and on and on the beat goes. Prayers for the world and all the suffering in it.



Quoting 535. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I must say though property damage with sustained winds of 40 mph? I'm not so sure about that. Most structures should be able to hold up to that strength even mobile homes and trailer parks. The severe threshold for winds is gusts to 58 mph. It's usually this gust of wind or a quick downburst that would cause damage, especially if it picks up debris and pelts it towards the house. Not saying NOAA should refine it, but I would be interested in finding out any damage reports out of this high wind event in Montana and North Dakota.
Part of the wind damage profile there has to be because of gusts accelerated through canyons...
Quoting 568. DeepSeaRising:

Russian jet shot down by Turkey today. AGW, ISIS, possible war with Russia and Iran, a record likely El-Nino not yet done with the world, 17 trillion in debt, carbon footprint on climate only going upward, historic water sources disappearing, more refugees than at any time in world history, and on and on the beat goes. Prayers for the world and all the suffering in it.

Amen to that brother. This could be bad due to the volitileness of Russia nad the fact they have a thug or crazy President Putin. I think we all have to hold our collective breath on this one. Russia has the most nuclear weapons than all of us. I second the John Lennon song. I am an advocate for peace and harmony
Quoting 570. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Here is one i think you will like Keep..Link
Quoting 567. GTstormChaserCaleb:





Dear Caleb, I think I can start to see a counterclockwise spin in the Southern Caribbean. Could this be the makings of the potential Tropical System? SSTs are very warm there and shear is low according to the 200mb charts
today is my thanksgiving

I am thankful for all the memories
the good the bad the ugly

thank you for having me a part of it all
Quoting 563. DeepSeaRising:

Blog is as good as it's ever been. It's constructive, there's respect, great information, and up to the minute updates on conditions. Lots of great minds and WU is not lacking in witty banter. Of coarse the NWS/NHC is the go to place for actionable information. This is a blog and should be treated as such. This is a great place to get reliable weather info. Such as in life, there will always be malcontents, who can pick out the flaws in anyone and anything. While never balancing that with all the great positives.
Never produce anything positive either. All goes quiet when these types are asked to contribute relevant information, data, or even questions.
Quoting 566. MeteorologistTV:

Pretty strong waterspout hit the Tampa area.Did some damage as well
Any video of it?
October 2015 water spout

http://www.wkyc.com/video/2493359108001/1/Raw-Vid eo-Tampa-water-spout
Let's think back to Joaquin in the Bahamas and the historic rain event in South Carolina. We had great members, Nash in S.C and Baha in the Bahamas, giving us up to the minute updates. Many others too. Dozens of individual reports from the affected areas by different members there in real time. Keep, happy Thanksgiving, faster and faster has never been so evident.
Quoting 575. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

today is my thanksgiving

I am thankful for all the memories
the good the bad the ugly

thank you for having me a part of it all
Thank you for all you have contributed here. I have learned a lot from you and others on this blog....Hope you like the vid I posted .:)
Quoting 575. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

today is my thanksgiving

I am thankful for all the memories
the good the bad the ugly

thank you for having me a part of it all
Happy thanksgiving, KOTG.
Quoting 574. WeatherConvoy:


Dear Caleb, I think I can start to see a counterclockwise spin in the Southern Caribbean. Could this be the makings of the potential Tropical System? SSTs are very warm there and shear is low according to the 200mb charts
There's a Twave in the area, and a semi permanent low as well. This area is usually on watch for developing TCs at this time of year,
Quoting 561. bwtranch:


Oh for sure. That's why I don't stay around for very long. If you gripe about it too much, even though it's part of the rules, you can get banned. I think it keeps a lot of people away. It's their club. It's also about the worst place to get reliable weather info too.
If you use some of the information on here, check it very carefully for accuracy before you post it somewhere else.
How about you and the others who have made remarks derogatory toward this community start contributing something other than complaints.
:)

Add:
Quoting 557. RJY:

You bloviate AND continue to miss the point. Have a great day.

RJY And SandyTimes10. You can post here, too. How about it?
Quoting 578. marynell:

October 2015 water spout

http://www.wkyc.com/video/2493359108001/1/Raw-Vid eo-Tampa-water-spout

TYVM...
Very hot in Cayman today which we are getting used to.

Do see a bit of instability though in a line of CB s fairly early in the day.

They have that I want to go higher look.

I do see that spin in the south Caribbean but it's very broad
Quoting 572. WeatherConvoy:


Amen to that brother. This could be bad due to the volitileness of Russia nad the fact they have a thug or crazy President Putin. I think we all have to hold our collective breath on this one. Russia has the most nuclear weapons than all of us. I second the John Lennon song. I am an advocate for peace and harmony


Might have to vape their airbase and Iranian/Syrian forces in Syria. NATO could put 200 planes in the air tomorrow and accomplish that easily. But.......what would Putin do. Putin has pushed the envelope as far as he can. He's doing 100 sorties a day, combined with Iranian and Syrian ground forces trying to wipe out the opposition. Pentagon has a very actionable plan, just administration won't let them because they fear the fall out could lead to a much wider war. And who knows where China comes down on all of this. Most likely on the side of the Iranians and Russians. Israel is very worried. And that's your geopolitical tidbit of the day. We must come together as a world, Russia and Iran included, right now, or we are doomed to repeat history. I too pray for peace Weather Convoy.
Better photos of the water spout and damage to a mail truck on WTSP.com
Quoting 582. Barefootontherocks:

How about you and the others who have made remarks derogatory toward this community start contributing something other than complaints.
:)

Add:

And SandyTimes10. You can post here, too. How about it?
Every time you add someone I keep trying to plus you again....
:-)
Quoting 559. Gearsts:

Very trustworthy models.
Lol a the sarcasm.

There are reports that a water sprout hit a mail truck and now mail is floating in the water (someone is going to be P'od) Are there any updates on the driver?
Quoting 587. BahaHurican:

Every time you add someone I keep trying to plus you again....
:-)


Barefoot's been on fire. Always a very good member and usually controversial for some of her non conforming thoughts. :) She shows, that even if you don't always agree with the mainstream thinking here, you can enjoy and inform the blog. Made a lot of excellent points in the past couple days.
Several Saturdays ago we had just driven onto the JFK causeway going east towards Padre Island (Corpus Christi area) about 4:30pm. The peak of the bridge was a distance away and a water spout had formed to the south of it. The Coast Guard dolphin helicopter was hovering over the Laguna Madre to the west keeping an eye open from what we could tell. The spout stayed around for a bit, fell apart about a minute before we reached the bridge. As we were heading down the peak if the bridge, huge rain drops splattered into the size of small plates on the windshield. Nothing severe, no wind, but everyone slowed. It was over in less than a minute. Just the remnants of the spout.
Quoting 520. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nora is looking better organized as it enters the Central Pacific.

We'll have to see how much ACE the storm can produce. The index stands at 94 units so far; the record is 107 units in 1994.




Wait, we still need to see Olaf next week. We'll pass the 1994 record:



Quoting 509. Tazmanian:




there really no need too post that


Yes there is... Time to change our tune and bring on some early winter storms.
It went up to 90 around 11 a. M. Still very hot at my place, but looks like cloud cover is moving in from the west, as the airport temp is dropping.

I'm waiting to see if we get any rain before dark....
:-)

EDIT: Wundermap is showing the prefrontal trough now east of Grand Bahama and Bimini.
building convection central carib. good news for our dry friends in jamaica and other neighboring islands.
Maybe a stalled E-W front over the gulf next in the next week or so..



Quoting 594. islander101010:

building convection central carib. good news for our dry friends in jamaica and other neighboring islands.


there is some cyclonic turning occurring
but that area is a perpetual area of low pressure
its always there in that particular area
but maybe something can come off that region
we have too wait too see

I'm thinking that realistically we can expect one more TC this season, and it's most likely to form in the SW Car during the next 10 to 15 days. No special powers of prognostication required... it's climatology.

Whatever does form, I sure hope it stays well clear of that sweet spot between the Caymans and Cuba...
Quoting 596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



there is some cyclonic turning occurring
but that area is a perpetual area of low pressure
its always there in that particular area
but maybe something can come off that region
we have too wait too see


Yeah ... regular spawning spot, but it's not always the source... usually need a vigorous Twave passing through the area as well.
Season is not over, this may be the highest risk to Florida over the next 20 days that we've seen in some time. Surely one, likely two storms to come yet. Highly unknown variables with this most unlikely of seasons unfolding.
Quoting 596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



there is some cyclonic turning occurring
but that area is a perpetual area of low pressure
its always there in that particular area
but maybe something can come off that region
we have too wait too see


Yep..Shows up nice on the last few frames.
What a interesting pattern.

Quoting 596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



there is some cyclonic turning occurring
but that area is a perpetual area of low pressure
its always there in that particular area
but maybe something can come off that region
we have too wait too see


Shows up here too..

Quoting 602. hydrus:

Shows up here too..



in all likely hood if something forms this time in the season
it comes from the sw towards ne it goes
key is where sw will it form
Quoting 603. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


in all likely hood if something forms this time in the season
it comes from the sw towards ne it goes
key is where sw will it form
The GFS keeps it over Central America and Mexico, keeping it from developing.. That could be wrong if it wraps up further east. That would allow the that digging trof to pull farther north..jmo
Another super cool thing about WU; while we are discussing the SW Caribbean, rest assured, the NHC are doing the same. Could see a yellow circle pop up in the next 24 hours as this AOI is being watched closely by the experts.
Quoting 605. hydrus:

The GFS keeps it over Central America and Mexico, keeping it from developing.. That could be wrong if it wraps up further east. That would allow the that digging trof to pull farther north..jmo
Yes the GFS has gone more conservative and kept it inland, but it looks east of where they have it, could mean wayyyy more developing perhaps?
Long way off from any development. Must develop solid convection, sustain, have shear stay manageable, and then develop a surface low. Likely days away from anything of note. Area where nothing may happen or things may blob quickly.
Quoting 607. Camerooski:

Yes the GFS has gone more conservative and kept it inland, but it looks east of where they have it, could mean wayyyy more developing perhaps?
If one looks close, it is pulling some moisture from the TUTT, helping it from entraining dry air to the north..Definitely worth watching..



Certainly at least a moisture fetch, a tropical wave, and a low in the vicinity. The SW Caribbean is now the area to watch for TC development through the coming days.
Quoting 608. DeepSeaRising:

Long way off from any development. Must develop solid convection, sustain, have shear stay manageable, and then develop a surface low. Likely days away from anything of note. Area where nothing may happen or things may blob quickly.
The area is dropping in pressure, which allows more developing, shear is decreasing, and this is the time of ear where FL needs to watch out. 0_0
Remember boys and girls. Don't post any models out more than 1 hour or people might get confused.
On weather.com they say that my area (Lauderdale by the Sea) will experience winds gusting over TS force for 3 straight days Oct 18-20 weird....
Quoting 612. Grothar:

Remember boys and girls. Don't post any models out more than 1 hour or people might get confused.
yes sir... :(
Quoting 612. Grothar:

Remember boys and girls. Don't post any models out more than 1 hour or people might get confused.

I'm confused already, just reading what happened yesterday......
Ever closer and even closer....
Quoting 612. Grothar:

Remember boys and girls. Don't post any models out more than 1 hour or people might get confused.
Ah yes...How about these 33 day models.?....:)

Goes moisture fetch, area of convection, area of sustained convection, blob, invest, and then next named storm. We are but at one of six. Gro will let us know when and if we have an official blob. And then blob con status will go into effect. NHC is waiting with baited breath for this designation. For real, pretty sure Gro is NHC's early warning system.
Quoting 615. pottery:


I'm confused already, just reading what happened yesterday......
Hey, man... did it rain by you yet? Looks like good odds today...
I know the 1200 hour model run showed D.C getting 2 feet of snow :) Let me find it and post it here.
Nino killing the African Waves..Which are looking vigorous for this time of year...

Quoting 572. WeatherConvoy:


Amen to that brother. This could be bad due to the volitileness of Russia nad the fact they have a thug or crazy President Putin. I think we all have to hold our collective breath on this one. Russia has the most nuclear weapons than all of us. I second the John Lennon song. I am an advocate for peace and harmony
This is not a politics site, but since you people bring the subject, just a Little suggestion. I salute you for been fanatics of your nation, but don't let brotherly love, blind you. Try to analyze things without passion with an open minded perspective. Let me remind you that this isn't a cowboy movie. ''The Good guys, vs. the Bad guys.'' All superpowers seek world control. Russia, China, the European Union, and of course USA isn't the exception, but rather, the leader. The reality is that USA leads the winning numbers. Possessing the best technology, more powerful weapons of mass destruction worldwide. Also the title of the world #1 nuclear superpower. Having the particular distinction of been the only nation that had used atomic bombs against innocent civilians, not once, but twice, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, thus beginning the Atomic Age. Russia is in the second position, as A Nuclear superpower. That's the truth. Lets hope for these nations to use common sense for the well being of humanity. And Keep John Lennon's dream "alive": 'Imagine all the people, sharing all the world in peace....''
Quoting 617. hydrus:

Ah yes...How about these 33 day models.?....:)


Not showing a storm hitting my area, so it must be worthless.....
People should get ready.
Looks like the trof is almost here ... better go put up my car windows...
Quoting 625. Gearsts:

People should get ready.



That's a call to ye Floridians. :) Way to early to say anything. NHC in their evening discussion will talk at length about this possible AOI. Nothing more nothing less. We wait and watch.
Quoting 627. DeepSeaRising:



That's a call to ye Floridians. :) Way to early to say anything. NHC in their evening discussion will talk at length about this possible AOI. Nothing more nothing less. We wait and watch.
lol I think he was being sarcastic.
Quoting 627. DeepSeaRising:



That's a call to ye Floridians. :) Way to early to say anything. NHC in their evening discussion will talk at length about this possible AOI. Nothing more nothing less. We wait and watch.


This will be a difficult call on this possible system. Count on a few days before you see anything concrete.
Looks like the ghost would be blocked from moving north?
Saw the story "Blowing Dust Leads to Traffic Pile-Ups in Washington ... " Seriously, you'd think people drive in blowing dust often enough to know what to do.

Ummm, what is it you should do again?
Quoting 630. PensacolaDoug:

Looks like the ghost would be blocked from moving north?
nope if it forms more east it should move close to FL
Looks great for development.

Ok i will stop ;)
Quoting 601. hydrus:

What a interesting pattern.


The high off the Texas coast is pulling in moisture from the Atlantic coast as shown by the swirl over SC and eastern GA. This is creating a classic wedge in eastern AL, with the moist air undercutting the drier air at the surface. The wedge is creating a layer of low clouds that covers almost all of GA and central AL. The overcast has never cleared here, and the temperature is only 72. Another front comes through tomorrow night, but this one is anchored by a low all the way up in eastern Canada. My 60% chance of rain Friday did turn into a zero percent actual, and I expect my 20% chance tomorrow night will do the same. After that, a couple more dry fronts move through, reinforcing the cooler and dry pattern. A massive 1032 high is forecast to be in place over the entire eastern half of the US by Sunday. This high will play a role in directing any storm that might develop the following week.
Quoting 628. washingtonian115:

lol I think he was being sarcastic.
lol u missed the :-)

Have you guys started to cool off up there? The humidity here today is MASSIVE...
Quoting 631. bappit:

Saw the story "Blowing Dust Leads to Traffic Pile-Ups in Washington ... " Seriously, you'd think people drive in blowing dust often enough to know what to do.

Ummm, what is it you should do again?


Well first off if you can you avoid driving altogether.. but if you must and the driving conditions become too hazardous you pull to the side of the road and turn off your lights!! If you leave your lights on other people might think that is the road and try to follow you and cause an accident.. the AZDOT motto is "Pull aside, stay alive"
Quoting 636. LargoFl:


Does the use of these colors indicate that we are now entering fall?
Quoting 632. Camerooski:

nope if it forms more east it should move close to FL
Given the size and strength of the blocking high that will be in place over the eastern US for almost the entire period out to 14 days, how do you think a low, regardless of how far east it forms, will be able to penetrate very far north from the Caribbean or Yucatan?
640. 7544
Quoting 625. Gearsts:

People should get ready.



waiting for gro to give the ok to start the countdown still 8 days out might do it at 5 days out thats if it forms
Quoting 619. BahaHurican:

Hey, man... did it rain by you yet? Looks like good odds today...


YES !

Nearly 2" in the past 48 hrs.
Today just drizzles, but last night a nice shower and yesterday too.
Surprising how green everything looks already. Maybe the rain washed the dust off the plants....
Quoting 638. BahaHurican:

Does the use of these colors indicate that we are now entering fall?
LOL. Maybe it's the new model scheme now. Interestingly, the only time the GEFS shows a low in Florida is at exactly 378 hours, with nothing before or after. The GFS never shows the low.
Quoting 635. BahaHurican:

lol u missed the :-)

Have you guys started to cool off up there? The humidity here today is MASSIVE...
It was brisk yesterday and it is again today.On friday it was a tad humid which is probably why we had stronger storms than expected.Low 70's to upper 60's are in the forecast for this week.
Quoting 637. AZweather13:



Well first off if you can you avoid driving altogether.. but if you must and the driving conditions become too hazardous you pull to the side of the road and turn off your lights!! If you leave your lights on other people might think that is the road and try to follow you and cause an accident.. the AZDOT motto is "Pull aside, stay alive"
Thanks for the info!
All I ever hear is to slow down, but that seems flawed because someone still going too fast could run into you and it would only take one. Once a pileup occurs then the people who did slow down are now going too fast and themselves run into the pile up. I think that's why they routinely shut some highways when visibilities drop too low. Someone has to be on the ball (old man idiom) to do that.
Quoting 637. AZweather13:



Well first off if you can you avoid driving altogether.. but if you must and the driving conditions become too hazardous you pull to the side of the road and turn off your lights!! If you leave your lights on other people might think that is the road and try to follow you and cause an accident.. the AZDOT motto is "Pull aside, stay alive"
I don't think blowing dust is very common in SE Washington though, so drivers are probably not as experienced as those in Arizona. I've hit a couple of those driving in Nevada, and it was a total brownout before I even knew it was on top of me. One was at night, and, even having driven in Central Valley fog in California, I think that was about the scariest driving experience I ever had.
Quoting 632. Camerooski:

nope if it forms more east it should move close to FL
Like Stevie Wonder.. I can't see it.
so you guys think that the low off panama is the much advertised gfs low that the model have been predicting for awhile now?if pressures are dropping in the area then we must really watch it. time will tell thats for sure
vis. sat. loop almost looks as if this upcoming caribean disturbance wont be the last
649. 7544
Quoting 647. knightwarrior41:

so you guys think that the low off panama is the much advertised gfs low that the model have been predicting for awhile now?if pressures are dropping in the area then we must really watch it. time will tell thats for sure


might be more than one low that forms imo
Quoting 647. knightwarrior41:

so you guys think that the low off panama is the much advertised gfs low that the model have been predicting for awhile now?if pressures are dropping in the area then we must really watch it. time will tell thats for sure
I don't know, since the GFS has moved the origin of the high around several times, as well as not showing it at all. The Gulf of Panama is not a common location for genesis of a Gulf of Mexico storm. There's convection there on a daily basis. One of the things to watch is what the convection looks like at 0300. If it's almost gone, regardless of how impressive it looks during the day, it's just the typical diurnal convection.
Beginning is Common Sence, but the end is about that potential (slim chance at this time) storm in Caribbean.

Follow CBSMIAMI.COM: Facebook | Twitter
MIAMI (CBSMiami) — South Florida has already seen it’s typical amount of tropical systems for the season and there are still about six weeks to go – and we might not be done yet.
In fact, research indicates the region is not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. While it might be past the “statistical peak” of hurricane season, which was September 10th, that means little for South Florida.
South Florida’s peak season is October and records indicate this month has seen more landfalling hurricanes than any other.
The formation zone this time of the year begins to shift away from the eastern Atlantic and toward the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, which makes South Florida a bigger target.
Meteoroligist John Gerard reminds residents to stay prepared by keeping your supplies fresh and reviewing your safety plans.
The computer models are projecting a system to develop in a particular hot spot in the western Caribbean by next weekend, which would certainly fit the pattern for October.
Since those storms that form there in October tend to take a track close to South Florida, it’s important to watch for future forecasts from CBS4 on that potential system in the days ahead.
Want to breathe a sigh of relief? Wait until November, which tends to be one of our less-active months of the entire season.
For the next few weeks, however, remain on alert and stay prepared!
652. beell
Quoting 640. 7544:



waiting for gro to give the ok to start the countdown still 8 days out might do it at 5 days out thats if it forms


Count begins Wednesday at 2200 hours.
Simply Incredible.


Ho-Hum another 95+ day, 98 at the Airport.
Ridge out west. Trough out east.

Quoting 643. washingtonian115:

It was brisk yesterday and it is again today.On friday it was a tad humid which is probably why we had stronger storms than expected.Low 70's to upper 60's are in the forecast for this week.
Maybe it will actually cool off after this front comes through... I can always hope, right? Lol
Late good evening hello from Germany. In case you're waiting for the promised news of the Mediterranean storm: It's hard to get detailed weather informations in a "common" language from the Balkans on a Sunday ;-) But there are reports of some landslides due to heavy rain and of wind damage in northwestern Greece (here some pics) and severe flooding in Albania:


Source Panagiotis Dimisianos via Cyclone of Rhodes.

In Germany weather was gorgeous: clear air, blue sky, sunny - but windy and already quite cold. Below a pic of migrant birds flying over my head today and some paragliders flying around old Ronneburg castle northeast of Frankfurt where I've been today. In the upcoming week it should get grey, wet and even colder as high "Oldenburgia" is leaving.





European surface map for tomorrow: Ex-Joaquin impacting Portugal and Spain, next low entering the western Mediterranean and the current Mediterranean storm heading to the Aegean and the Black Sea ...



Have a good und peaceful night everyone!
Hey... thunder... brb ...
Quoting 649. 7544:



might be more than one low that forms imo
yes several models are saying more than one low pressure coming up from down there over the next few weeks,so far we wait and see what happens..but for sure I'm staying alert, hope everyone is around here.
D min is showing I believe.

Quoting 639. sar2401:

Given the size and strength of the blocking high that will be in place over the eastern US for almost the entire period out to 14 days, how do you think a low, regardless of how far east it forms, will be able to penetrate very far north from the Caribbean or Yucatan?
CMC wants to shift it west.
Quoting 663. victoria780:

CMC wants to shift it west.
Want to see the Euro show it.
Quoting 664. unknowncomic:

Want to see the Euro show it.

Whats that mean for S FL and Cuba?
And the rain is down! Also seems to be genuinely cooler...
:-)
Quoting 666. BahaHurican:

And the rain is down! Also seems to be genuinely cooler...
:-)


Baha has the anti-post. o.O
Quoting 668. Astrometeor:



Baha has the anti-post. o.O
Yeah ... kewl .... ;o)

Been a long time since I got it... cool beans...
Fall-like weather West Palm Beach style...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
359 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015

...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PUSHING
A COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH TO WORK
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO
FALL INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY AS
THE WINDS WILL WILL BE WESTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. THEREFORE...THE
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE DRY WEATHER.

My motto for storms is. You know where it's not going to go if the CMC shows it.
Quoting 650. sar2401:

I don't know, since the GFS has moved the origin of the high around several times, as well as not showing it at all. The Gulf of Panama is not a common location for genesis of a Gulf of Mexico storm. There's convection there on a daily basis. One of the things to watch is what the convection looks like at 0300. If it's almost gone, regardless of how impressive it looks during the day, it's just the typical diurnal convection.
If a tropical storm forms. We want it for Honduras. Need the rain. I know I sound like Cariboy but we really need rain. No thunders though they scare my brother.
Quoting 663. victoria780:

CMC wants to shift it west.
The CMC is shifting the low back west into Mexico, which is about where it should go in the face of strong high pressure to the east and north. I still don't see a way a relatively weak low is going to move east in the Gulf over the next 10-14 days.
674. MahFL
No rain forecast here in NE FL, looks like the rainy season came to an end.
Quoting 672. allancalderini:

If a tropical storm forms. We want it for Honduras. Need the rain. I know I sound like Cariboy but we really need rain. No thunders though they scare my brother.
I know what you mean. No rain at all this month up here. If a low is going to form, it should do so in the GOH. With the high pressure to the north, that may keep the low closer to you, giving you more rain. Unfortunately, the same high means no rain for me, but you're in worse shape, so we can only hope.
Quoting 665. nygiants:


Whats that mean for S FL and Cuba?
Nothing right now. None of the models are in agreement for any kind of timeframe where even the formation of a low is likely. When we start to get agreement between the GFS and ECMWF at less than 10 days out, then we might have something.
well 18z GFS shows whatever develops moves over central America into the Pacific now,still too early to believe
Quoting 656. SandyTimes10:

Ridge out west. Trough out east.


You've got it backwards.

Quoting 678. LargoFl:

well 18z GFS shows whatever develops moves over central America into the Pacific now,still too early to believe
It shows any low forming near Colombia or Panama riding the monsoon trough west into the Pacific. Not hard to believe at all, since that's how a lot of the lows in the eastern Pacific have formed this year.
Quoting 679. sar2401:

You've got it backwards.




Presuming he was talking about the mid levels, you've got it wrong.
Quoting 645. sar2401:

I don't think blowing dust is very common in SE Washington though, so drivers are probably not as experienced as those in Arizona. I've hit a couple of those driving in Nevada, and it was a total brownout before I even knew it was on top of me. One was at night, and, even having driven in Central Valley fog in California, I think that was about the scariest driving experience I ever had.


Blowing dust to them is what a snowstorm is to me... And yes if you hit a bad one they are very scary and they do develop quickly. Almost every time we have one you hear about a semi crashing and causing fatalities... we dont like them but it comes with the territory. Also Arizonans use the word haboob instead of blowing dust.. makes it more threatening if you survived a haboob rather than blowing dust! Lol
Quoting 681. Drakoen:



Presuming he was talking about the mid levels, you've got it wrong.

She was talking about the mid levels. Oh well. Let's just say we can have a cold one tonight, okay.
Quoting 684. SandyTimes10:


She was talking about the mid levels. Oh well. Let's just say we can have a cold one tonight, okay.
Ah, the mid levels. That wasn't at all clear to me. At the surface, at least, high pressure will rule the east.
Quoting 683. AZweather13:



Blowing dust to them is what a snowstorm is to me... And yes if you hit a bad one they are very scary and they do develop quickly. Almost every time we have one you hear about a semi crashing and causing fatalities... we dont like them but it comes with the territory. Also Arizonans use the word haboob instead of blowing dust.. makes it more threatening if you survived a haboob rather than blowing dust! Lol
Same with Central Valley Tule fog and the first rain in L.A. NO matter how many times people hear slow down and pull over, they keep barreling along at 75. It was really bad in the Valley when the fog lasted for days. I'd be stuck on the side of the road for 12 or 14 hours until the CHP came along and provided an escort. I could stand outside below the freeway embankment and sometimes hear vehicles still plowing into one another. I hated having to drive I-5 in the winter.
This is getting out of hand already.

Police: Off-duty Memphis officer fatally shot
Hey guys

I think we are in for a nice W Carib storm soon
In case anyone is wondering what I'm thinking


Yes GFS has sorta dropped the system but that is GFS these days it has a habit of showing storms then dropping it as we get closer to the time then brings it back up when it's about to form or when it has formed

Anyway it's this time of year that we do end up getting it so keep an eye out and good luck to Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida

20 minutes until the best show on TV returns!

Should be an interesting next week or two in the West Pacific. The GFS also has a Category 5 hurricane forming in the East Pacific.

20 minutes until the best show on TV returns!
what show is that TA, 13 is your opinion?
Quoting 691. StormTrackerScott:



What are you watching Disney Junior

Quoting 693. TropicalAnalystwx13:





A generation gap I guess
Quoting 689. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys

I think we are in for a nice W Carib storm soon
In case anyone is wondering what I'm thinking


Yes GFS has sorta dropped the system but that is GFS these days it has a habit of showing storms then dropping it as we get closer to the time then brings it back up when it's about to form or when it has formed

Anyway it's this time of year that we do end up getting it so keep an eye out and good luck to Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida



You have a history of being right/some what right so I trust you :)..just seems like its not going to happen because models are dropping it and out of whack, but I know there is some chance still
Quoting 694. SunnyDaysFla:



A generation gap I guess

Yeah, everyone's taste is different. I was only being half serious. ;)
697. IDTH
Quoting 636. LargoFl:



Kind of off topic but the top looks like a flag blowing in the wind.
18z NAVGEM model is showing a tropical storm in the W. Carib. in 6 days. Many of GFS ensembles are still showing development as well, something to keep an eye on, we may also get a system in the EPAC off the coast of Nicaragua and El Salvador.



150 hrs.



Further out in time:



We'll probably have a really good monsoon trough which will bring a lot of rain to Central America. Models will struggle at first getting down the placement of a low in this kind of a setup. Too soon to say what impacts if any this will have in U.S. Central America and W. Carib. continue to monitor for potential development. Have a good night and great week everyone!

The Walking Dead!
I guess the blog died. I blame TA.

Cool fall weather here, with the trees beginning the transition to fall colors. Still awaiting first frost, seems like it might happen over the next weekend. Am glad Joaquin didn't come here, I am certain my dorm room would've flooded.
Quoting 699. PensacolaDoug:

The Walking Dead!



Yes? Oh, you meant the TV show...thought you were talking to me.
Quoting 700. Astrometeor:

I guess the blog died. I blame TA.

Cool fall weather here, with the trees beginning the transition to fall colors. Still awaiting first frost, seems like it might happen over the next weekend. Am glad Joaquin didn't come here, I am certain my dorm room would've flooded.
I saw a little bit of frost on the roofs of houses around my neighborhood this morning. The temperature was 38F.
Models seem to support potential development in the SW Car sometime between 14th and 24th October. This is about all we can infer atm.

The bit about the cat 5 in the WPAC is more interesting for now... which reminds me ... anybody with an idea how many TCs have hit the Philippines this season? Seems like it's been pretty slow in that area for most of the season ....
Quoting 683. AZweather13:



Blowing dust to them is what a snowstorm is to me... And yes if you hit a bad one they are very scary and they do develop quickly. Almost every time we have one you hear about a semi crashing and causing fatalities... we dont like them but it comes with the territory. Also Arizonans use the word haboob instead of blowing dust.. makes it more threatening if you survived a haboob rather than blowing dust! Lol

Up here in Concho, outside of Show Low, spent a lot of time in the valley. Great to see another Arizonian. Have been through the Haboobs, Crazy!
705. MahFL
Quoting 700. Astrometeor:

I guess the blog died. I blame TA.

Cool fall weather here, with the trees beginning the transition to fall colors. Still awaiting first frost, seems like it might happen over the next weekend. Am glad Joaquin didn't come here, I am certain my dorm room would've flooded.


It helps if you say where "here" is.
Quoting 705. MahFL:



It helps if you say where "here" is.


Sorry. I usually do. I attend university in Millersville, PA, a suburb of Lancaster, Pennsylvania.
Folks - this has been a quiet season in the Florida Keys - been here over 25 years - and I love it quiet.

Now for some history.
From the Key West NWS discussion today

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1846...THE GREAT
HAVANA HURRICANE PASSED NORTHWARD BETWEEN KEY WEST AND THE MARQUESAS
KEYS. THIS HURRICANE WAS MOST LIKELY A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OF
CARIBBEAN ORIGIN. THE COLLECTOR OF CUSTOMS...STEVEN MALLORY...WROTE
THAT OF 600 HOUSES IN KEY WEST...ALL BUT EIGHT WERE DESTROYED OR
SEVERELY DAMAGED. BOTH THE KEY WEST AND SAND KEY LIGHTHOUSES WERE
COMPLETELY DEMOLISHED...WITH NO OCCUPANTS SURVIVING. STORM SURGE
WASHED MANY CORPSES OUT OF THE KEY WEST CEMETERY...AT WHICH TIME WAS
LOCATED ON THE BEACH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND. MANY PEOPLE
SURVIVED BY CLINGING TO BUSHES AND TREES ON THE HIGH GROUND OF
SOLARES HILL IN KEY WEST. THE GREAT HAVANA HURRICANE OF 1846 IS
EASILY THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE TO EVER IMPACT KEY WEST.
Quoting 703. BahaHurican:

Models seem to support potential development in the SW Car sometime between 14th and 24th October. This is about all we can infer atm.

The bit about the cat 5 in the WPAC is more interesting for now... which reminds me ... anybody with an idea how many TCs have hit the Philippines this season? Seems like it's been pretty slow in that area for most of the season ....
According to my count, the number of TC's is nine, with five of them being typhoons. China has been hit by eight and Japan a whopping twelve. The average in the Philippines seems to be between six and nine, depending on source, so the Philippines isn't behind on numbers. Thankfully, the storms this year haven't been as devastating as in previous years.
Wow, this motorist caught amazing footage of this waterspout moving onshore as a tornado and slamming into a mail freight truck near the Sunshine Skyway Bridge the morning in the Tampa Bay area:

Link

Thankfully the traffic was low as this truck was the only vehicle hit by the tornado, and thankfully he wasn't injured. Otherwise there were some road signs blown over and some tree damage as well.

This driver who shot the video did get too close, as if it had been stronger and changed direction, it could have been his car going into the bay. However, he did at least come to a stop and you can hear him blaring his horn to try and warn other drivers to stop, so overall not bad.

It looks like the footage was edited because near the end you can see that the truck was already blown over on it's side and the tornado moved back over the truck, picking it back up which ripped and twisted the trailer, causing it blow open and mail can be sign getting sucked out of the truck.
Quoting 690. TropicalAnalystwx13:

20 minutes until the best show on TV returns!

Should be an interesting next week or two in the West Pacific. The GFS also has a Category 5 hurricane forming in the East Pacific.



The ECMWF also has a major hurricane in the EPac in a few days.
FEATURE-Climate change threatens future of Canada's northern hunters

In parts of the Northwest Territories, average annual temperatures have already risen more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4°F) in the past two decades, a local politician said, impacting everything from housing, transport to caribou numbers. .............................. Wildlife are particularly affected by the changes. The number of breeding females in one major caribou herd, a key population indicator, dropped by half between 2015 and 2012, the territorial government said in late September.

In 1986, the herd was about 470,000 strong. Now it's 16,000.


Link
GMZ001-121345-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
945 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NAPLES SW TO 25N87W TO
NEAR 24N92W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 28N88W BY MON AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES MON
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION TUE EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 27N90W AND
BECOME STATIONARY TO 27N97W BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRI. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SW GULF WILL RESULT
IN E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL PORTION ON FRI.


Something to watch....

11.10.2015: The numbers of people passing through Macedonia is rising again and there is a sense of urgency to travel to northern Europe before the winter makes the journey impossible. It is already getting cold and wet, and the fear is that people will start suffering much more, as Ed Thomas reports.

One fatality of the flooding in Albania reported (Italian weather site).

Snow for eastern Europe
BBC weather video, 11 October 2015 Last updated at 14:23
Heavy rain has brought floods to parts of the Mediterranean this week but it's snow which could become an issue across some eastern parts of Europe in the coming days. BBC Weather's Matt Taylor has the latest forecast.


Screenshot: Indeed - decent snow in Eastern Europe! Still sunny in Germany though.
Have a nice new week, folks ...
GMZ001-121345-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
945 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NAPLES SW TO 25N87W TO
NEAR 24N92W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 28N88W BY MON AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES MON
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION TUE EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 27N90W AND
BECOME STATIONARY TO 27N97W BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRI. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SW GULF WILL RESULT
IN E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL PORTION ON FRI.
just one model showing this but,its a good idea to stay alert anyway.........................
.
Quoting 709. Jedkins01:

Wow, this motorist caught amazing footage of this waterspout moving onshore as a tornado and slamming into a mail freight truck near the Sunshine Skyway Bridge the morning in the Tampa Bay area:

Link

Thankfully the traffic was low as this truck was the only vehicle hit by the tornado, and thankfully he wasn't injured. Otherwise there were some road signs blown over and some tree damage as well.

This driver who shot the video did get too close, as if it had been stronger and changed direction, it could have been his car going into the bay. However, he did at least come to a stop and you can hear him blaring his horn to try and warn other drivers to stop, so overall not bad.

It looks like the footage was edited because near the end you can see that the truck was already blown over on it's side and the tornado moved back over the truck, picking it back up which ripped and twisted the trailer, causing it blow open and mail can be sign getting sucked out of the truck.


I live 30 miles north of this, and at that time, my wife and I were working in the garden. No indication of anything other that great fall weather here. It is just beginning to drop below 70 at night.

It was a total shock to see this in the local news last night.
regardless of the model,if ANY shows this we need to stay alert...........................
Quoting 718. LargoFl:

just one model showing this but,its a good idea to stay alert anyway.........................

I know if this happens Camerooski will being going crazy. He is misunderstood as He loves all things severe weather!! Bless his heart
6Z GFS now has the Low in the bay of Campeche,run still running......................
Quoting 723. WeatherConvoy:


I know if this happens Camerooski will being going crazy. He is misunderstood as He loves all things severe weather!! Bless his heart
yes but we need to stay alert,models keep implying something develops this week..im waiting for hmmm Thursday and see what they say then,so far they keep jumping around
navgem=ever.right?
Quoting 725. LargoFl:

yes but we need to stay alert,models keep implying something develops this week..im waiting for hmmm Thursday and see what they say then,so far they keep jumping around

I do not think it will go in BOC due to the way steering patterns this time of year (Usually to S FL), models probably confused as always lol.
Quoting 723. WeatherConvoy:


I know if this happens Camerooski will being going crazy. He is misunderstood as He loves all things severe weather!! Bless his heart


When did the US Navy become Canadian? ;>)
cmc also has it there too............................................... .........
Quoting 728. docrod:



When did the US Navy become Canadian? ;>)
I was wondering that also.
When I see that little yellow x, then I will pay attention. These models go from doom to ghost really quick.
Quoting 722. LargoFl:

regardless of the model,if ANY shows this we need to stay alert...........................
Quoting 729. LargoFl:

cmc also has it there too............................................... .........

It had it there last run too
Anyone else having problems with the blog? I've been getting constant script messages that will not let me on.
Quoting 733. Grothar:

Anyone else having problems with the blog? I've been getting constant script messages that will not let me on.


Good morning Gro(And everyone else). No problems here.

Tides are still running high down here.
Quoting 733. Grothar:

Anyone else having problems with the blog? I've been getting constant script messages that will not let me on.


Me too Gro..
Haven't been able to put my finger on it just yet.. :(
Quoting 733. Grothar:

Anyone else having problems with the blog? I've been getting constant script messages that will not let me on.
None here.
Quoting 735. pcola57:



Me too Gro..
Haven't been able to put my finger on it just yet.. :(
Good morning to all. No problems here running Chrome. The script thing is a known problem with Firefox if that's what you're running. It has been reported many times and has never been fixed. The site is optimized for Chrome, and the programmers here have shown no inclination to fix FF problems. Reducing the amount of posts to 50 per page has been rumored to decrease, although not fix entirely, the script problem.

Dense fog and 57 in SE AL this morning. I have a four hour window early tomorrow morning with a 30% chance of showers. I also have a chance of winning the lottery if I drive across the bridge to Georgia and spend a buck.
Thanks to the two pcola's and Chillin. I was going to post where that system was going to go, but you all will have to wait a few days since I can't post properly. :)

This is really annoying. I've reset and cleaned my cookies.
Quoting 738. Grothar:

Thanks to the two pcola's and Chillin. I was going to post where that system was going to go, but you all will have to wait a few days since I can't post properly. :)

This is really annoying. I've reset and cleaned my cookies.


Too much information!
740. beell
Variations on a Theme:

GFS holding on to the same basic scenario. The center of a broad low to mid-level circulation moving slowly to the northwest and paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico in the EPAC. Any northward adevction of moisture and/or the circulation suppressed by ridging centered over the central gulf coast. A stationary boundary extending east to west across the entire southern gulf. At the very least, some significant rains north and east of the low center (Honduras, Nicaragua). We could see some secondary organization in the BOC along the stationary boundary but the meat and potatoes of this disturbance is farther south. The chances for a gulf system in the near term seem to be diminishing.

A pretty decent upper-level anticyclone shown in the model atop the low.

It is almost inevitable that at some point towards the end of this week, a mid-latitude trough or shortwave will finally provide the impetus to bring this bundled-up moisture into the GOM where strong upper-level westerlies/southwesterlies await. We could use the rain here in SE TX.


10/12 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, winds, rh-Valid 162 hrs (Sunday, 10/18)
Sticking with the 700 mb chart to better show the broad nature of the lower tropospheric circulation over the EPAC. Sketched in the surface boundary as well.


10/12 06Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-Valid 162 hrs
Quoting 733. Grothar:

Anyone else having problems with the blog? I've been getting constant script messages that will not let me on.


I click on "Stop script".
Not able to articulate it like you but my thoughts exactly....generally the chances of anything seem to be farther south and west....looking out my window again not a cloud and dry air

Quoting 740. beell:

Variations on a Theme:

GFS holding on to the same basic scenario. The center of a broad low to mid-level circulation moving slowly to the northwest and paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico in the EPAC. Any northward adevction of moisture and/or the circulation suppressed by ridging centered over the central gulf coast. A stationary boundary extending east to west across the entire southern gulf. At the very least, some significant rains north and east of the low center (Honduras, Nicaragua). We could see some secondary organization in the BOC along the stationary boundary but the meat and potatoes of this disturbance is farther south. The chances for a gulf system in the near term seem to be diminishing.

A pretty decent upper-level anticyclone shown in the model atop the low.

It is almost inevitable that at some point towards the end of this week, a mid-latitude trough or shortwave will finally provide the impetus to bring this bundled-up moisture into the GOM where strong upper-level westerlies/southwesterlies await. We could use the rain here in SE TX.


10/12 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, winds, rh-Valid 162 hrs (Sunday, 10/18)
Sticking with the 700 mb chart to better show the broad nature of the lower tropospheric circulation over the EPC. Sketched in the surface boundary as well.


10/12 06Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-Valid 162 hrs
Quoting 738. Grothar:

Thanks to the two pcola's and Chillin. I was going to post where that system was going to go, but you all will have to wait a few days since I can't post properly. :)

This is really annoying. I've reset and cleaned my cookies.
yeah it was really bad here earlier.
6Z Navy model has something developing,stay alert florida....................................
what bothers me some is. Should this system actually develop and move towards florida, it may just be moving too fast for people to have time to prepare their homes etc
Quoting 747. LargoFl:

6Z Navy model has something developing,stay alert florida....................................
ye this looks more likely as in OCtober this is the usual track.
Quoting 748. LargoFl:

what bothers me some is. Should this system actually develop and move towards florida, it may just be moving too fast for people to have time to prepare their homes etc
Nah people are usually very good for preparing in FL, they also get the message out quick...
How fast would it be moving? If anything devolpes down there would't we have at least three days?
Quoting 748. LargoFl:

what bothers me some is. Should this system actually develop and move towards florida, it may just be moving too fast for people to have time to prepare their homes etc
Quoting 748. LargoFl:

what bothers me some is. Should this system actually develop and move towards florida, it may just be moving too fast for people to have time to prepare their homes etc


I am starting a new holiday precedent for my family. On Friday following Thanksgiving Day we will put up the Christmas trees in the house and take down the gable vent shutters to celebrate the official end to the hurricane season. From this year forward I will leave the gable vent shutters on til the end of the season.
Local mets are indicating tropical moisture heading our way for the next weekend.
Quoting 751. SecretStormNerd:

How fast would it be moving? If anything devolpes down there would't we have at least three days?
Like Wilma, 15-20 mph.. In there and out of there..
GEOS-5 run yesterday had the potential low from the Caribbean pushed pretty hard into and hampered by Central America. It had pushed development back about 24hrs, having it pull together around the same 120hr mark.

Today it doesn't pull together much earlier, briefly at 117hr. Has a some what westward solution, still hampered by land this run but not as far or as much as yesterday.


Navy model is bullish on making this a hurricane,6Z run still not completed yet.......
Quoting 707. docrod:

Folks - this has been a quiet season in the Florida Keys - been here over 25 years - and I love it quiet.

Now for some history.
From the Key West NWS discussion today

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1846...THE GREAT
HAVANA HURRICANE PASSED NORTHWARD BETWEEN KEY WEST AND THE MARQUESAS
KEYS. THIS HURRICANE WAS MOST LIKELY A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OF
CARIBBEAN ORIGIN. THE COLLECTOR OF CUSTOMS...STEVEN MALLORY...WROTE
THAT OF 600 HOUSES IN KEY WEST...ALL BUT EIGHT WERE DESTROYED OR
SEVERELY DAMAGED. BOTH THE KEY WEST AND SAND KEY LIGHTHOUSES WERE
COMPLETELY DEMOLISHED...WITH NO OCCUPANTS SURVIVING. STORM SURGE
WASHED MANY CORPSES OUT OF THE KEY WEST CEMETERY...AT WHICH TIME WAS
LOCATED ON THE BEACH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND. MANY PEOPLE
SURVIVED BY CLINGING TO BUSHES AND TREES ON THE HIGH GROUND OF
SOLARES HILL IN KEY WEST. THE GREAT HAVANA HURRICANE OF 1846 IS
EASILY THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE TO EVER IMPACT KEY WEST.
And it won't be the last. We sure could use a good storm down their to help clean up all the trash, both on and off the land.
Quoting 733. Grothar:

Anyone else having problems with the blog? I've been getting constant script messages that will not let me on.


Yes , on Firefox, I have no problem if I log on in Chrome.
Quoting 752. rmbjoe1954:



I am starting a new holiday precedent for my family. On Friday following Thanksgiving Day we will put up the Christmas trees in the house and take down the gable vent shutters to celebrate the official end to the hurricane season. From this year forward I will leave the gable vent shutters on til the end of the season.


i know it's a pain in the butt to put them up and take them down...but are they limiting air flow through your attic up?
A positively tilted trough over the East Coast and a shortwave moving east towards the Great Lakes.



Ridging across the West Coast, should replace the trough along the East Coast in a couple of days.

Historic October Heat Shatters Records in Dakotas, Nebraska, Colorado

Sunday took late-season heat to unheard-of extremes in parts of Colorado, Nebraska and the Dakotas. For much of the region, temperatures were higher than any on record for so late in the year.

A few places were so hot that October 11 will go down as the hottest day of all of 2015 – an extraordinary feat in the central and northern Plains, where October is typically part of a rapid transition from summer's heat to winter's chill.

North Dakota

Fargo was one of the places where Sunday was hotter than any other day in 2015, surpassing the city's high of 96 from Aug. 14. The mercury hit an astonishing 97 in Fargo, establishing several records:

It was a new all-time record high for the month of October there, crushing the old record of 93 set Oct. 3, 1922, and Oct. 5, 1965.
It was by far the latest 97-degree or hotter day in any calendar year in Fargo, beating the Dust Bowl-era record from 1936 by a margin of 19 days.
Even more impressively, it appears to be hottest temperature ever recorded in the entire state of North Dakota on or after Oct. 11, beating a 95-degree reading taken in Buford on Oct. 11, 1911.


Link
Good Morning; drought issues notwithstanding for parts of the US, it looks very nice and "Falley" around Conus this morning (with some hot spots as well):
United States Monthly Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge


Quoting 738. Grothar:

Thanks to the two pcola's and Chillin. I was going to post where that system was going to go, but you all will have to wait a few days since I can't post properly. :)

This is really annoying. I've reset and cleaned my cookies.


most people toss their cookies when they get dirty...
Quoting 760. ricderr:



i know it's a pain in the butt to put them up and take them down...but are they limiting air flow through your attic up?


Hi Ricderr-

I also have roof ridge vents to allow hot air to escape.
At times I leave my garage door open and my attic door open to allow for additional air flow.

Quoting 751. SecretStormNerd:

How fast would it be moving? If anything devolpes down there would't we have at least three days?
Let's use the straight line distance from Tegucigalpa, Honduras to Ft. Myers as an example. Tegucigalpa should serve as a stand-in for development somewhere in the Gulf of Panama to the Gulf of Honduras in terms of mileage. It's 940 airline miles. Assuming the storm moves at 10 mph, which is a pretty good average for most hurricanes, that's 92 hours, or a little less than four days. That assumes the storm springs forth as a hurricane with no prior notice anything is developing, follows a straight line across Cuba, and never slows down. None of those things are likely. It's pretty unlikely Florida would have less than three days notice of a hurricane.


Beautiful fall-like day here in C FL.
Update today about the El Faro...

Doomed cargo ship sailed FULL SPEED into the path of Hurricane Joaquin, tracking data reveals... as former crew members describe the vessel as a leaky 'rust bucket'.....Link

The tracking data, which was released on Thursday evening by Thomson Reuters Eikon, shows the ship did not follow its normal course.
The sinking has been called the worst cargo shipping disaster involving a U.S.-flagged vessel in more than 30 years.
El Faro began deviating from its typical route between Jacksonville, Florida, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, early on the morning of September 30, around 10 hours after it left Jacksonville.
By that evening, Reuters reports, the ship was trapped between the track of the storm, which had shifted further southwest during the day, and the Bahamas directly to her west. Throughout the day, the ship was sailing near full speed.
Klaus Luhta of the International Organization of Masters, Mates, and Pilots told Reuters: 'I don't know what he (the captain) was thinking. I can't even speculate. He headed right into the track.'
The data raises questions about the ship owner's assertion that the vessel's captain had chosen a 'sound plan' to pass around Joaquin 'with a margin of comfort' but was then thwarted by engineering problems.

Ship captains who reviewed the data said that on the morning of September 30, still north of the Bahamas and hundreds of miles from the storm, Davidson still had three good options: slow down to assess the weather; turn around; or change course, heading west and hugging the Florida coast.
He would have had access to weather forecasts every few hours from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) giving the likely speed, strength and direction of the storm.


R
Let's see what the reliable global models show for 180 hours -

GFS



ECMWF



Both show a developing low off the Mexican Pacific coast near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which is where the prevailing winds and pressures would predict a low would develop. Neither one shows a low in the Caribbean or anywhere near Florida.
Expanding the search for oil is necessary to pay for the damage caused by climate change, the Governor of Alaska has told the BBC.

The state is suffering significant climate impacts from rising seas forcing the relocation of remote villages.

Governor Bill Walker says that coping with these changes is hugely expensive.

He wants to "urgently" drill in the protected lands of the Arctic National Wilderness Refuge to fund them.


Link
Hi Ricderr-

I also have roof ridge vents to allow hot air to escape.
At times I leave my garage door open and my attic door open to allow for additional air flow.


ahhh...ridgevent is the best passive airflow option....however...if you have ridgevent...you should close off your gable vents...as rather than allow airflow from your eave vents...you're pulling air through your gable vents....and not cooling the lower portion of your attic space as well.....i used to be a roofer
Quoting 771. LargoFl:


quite possible...
Massive El Niño is now 'too big to fail,' scientist says

An El Niño that is among the strongest on record is gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean, and climate scientists say California is likely to face a wet winter.

“There’s no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. It’s too big to fail,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

“And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal,” he said.


Link
Quoting 772. sar2401:

Let's see what the reliable global models show for 180 hours -

GFS



ECMWF



Both show a developing low off the Mexican Pacific coast near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which is where the prevailing winds and pressures would predict a low would develop. Neither one shows a low in the Caribbean or anywhere near Florida.


But sar, those models do not show a hurricane hitting somewhere along the Gulf Coast that can't be right!

Climate Change around the World

Alexander Mulhern 12 Oct 2015

Climate change is a planetary phenomenon, and it’s effects are many and varied. So we’ve put together this interactive map, showing the tangible effects currently attributed to climate change and the possible future scenarios we may see. Drag your way around the map and click on the points, you’ll find videos, images, facts and links to the original research!

Link
when the ship flipped over can you imagine the chaos & containers flying around & cat 4 winds. dead right there.
Quoting 766. indianrivguy:



most people toss their cookies when they get dirty...
Five-second rule? Three-minute rule? Awww heck... as long as the dog hasn't chewed on'm too much, they're probably ok.
Quoting 778. DogtownMex:



But sar, those models do not show a hurricane hitting somewhere along the Gulf Coast that can't be right!
There's always the NAVGEM, or some other model, that will show something scary for Florida, no matter how improbable it is. There seems to be something wrong with 06z run of the NAVGEM since it's been stuck at 144 hours for the past three hours or so.

We should have a new blog right after my post....
Quoting 774. ricderr:

Hi Ricderr-

I also have roof ridge vents to allow hot air to escape.
At times I leave my garage door open and my attic door open to allow for additional air flow.


ahhh...ridgevent is the best passive airflow option....however...if you have ridgevent...you should close off your gable vents...as rather than allow airflow from your eave vents...you're pulling air through your gable vents....and not cooling the lower portion of your attic space as well.....i used to be a roofer


The latest school of thought is to create a "non-vented" attic. Close off all gable, eave, and ridge vents & let the attic become "semi-conditioned" due to leaks of conditioned air through the home's finished ceilings. Insulation is moved from the top of the ceiling to the underside of the roof sheathing allowing for the transfer of cooler air. It's widely believed this "semi-conditioned" attic airspace then will not create condensation at vents and trunk lines due to the reduced heat and humidity. Many homes have begun using this configuration.
Quoting 782. sar2401:

There's always the NAVGEM, or some other model, that will show something scary for Florida, no matter how improbable it is. There seems to be something wrong with 06z run of the NAVGEM since it's been stuck at 144 hours for the past three hours or so.

We should have a new blog right after my post....


Especially in October it seems.
Quoting 783. SoFLRoofguy:



The latest school of thought is to create a "non-vented" attic. Close off all gable, eave, and ridge vents & let the attic become "semi-conditioned" due to leaks of conditioned air through the home's finished ceilings. Insulation is moved from the top of the ceiling to the underside of the roof sheathing allowing for the transfer of cooler air. It's widely believed this "semi-conditioned" attic airspace then will not create condensation at vents and trunk lines due to the reduced heat and humidity. Many homes have begun using this configuration.


I'm not a roofer, but that sounds incredibly inefficient energy-wise. Why would I want to let my air conditioned air to leak into my attic that is probably close to 100 degrees? If the attic is vented properly, you won't have to worry about condensation or mold.
Quoting 783. SoFLRoofguy:



The latest school of thought is to create a "non-vented" attic. Close off all gable, eave, and ridge vents & let the attic become "semi-conditioned" due to leaks of conditioned air through the home's finished ceilings. Insulation is moved from the top of the ceiling to the underside of the roof sheathing allowing for the transfer of cooler air. It's widely believed this "semi-conditioned" attic airspace then will not create condensation at vents and trunk lines due to the reduced heat and humidity. Many homes have begun using this configuration.


ok....thanks for that info.....it doesn't make sense to me....but that doesn't mean it's wrong....what about your cooling bill though...i know personally know that when i added ridgevent to our home two summer ago...that it dropped my summer electrical bill by a third.....is there still an energy savings with a closed system?
Quoting 785. tampabaymatt:



I'm not a roofer, but that sounds incredibly inefficient energy-wise. Why would I want to let my air conditioned air to leak into my attic that is probably close to 100 degrees? If the attic is vented properly, you won't have to worry about condensation or mold.

The mechanical trades came up with it in FL due to the amount of litigation they were dealing with regarding mold...Many A/C lines leak and create condensation with warmer attic spaces. Vents (eave/gables/ridge) actually allow moist air into the attic space creating the environment needed for condensation and mold growth. I agree its not the most efficient but the bottom of the sheathing gets insulated. You do semi-condition additional square footage though...
My friend has an air conditioned three car garage. I can only imagine the extra cost to do that. But boy is it nice having an air conditioned garage when you want to work in the garage here in S.W. Florida.

I'm dripping wet with sweat after about 5 minutes in my garage.
Quoting 786. ricderr:



ok....thanks for that info.....it doesn't make sense to me....but that doesn't mean it's wrong....what about your cooling bill though...i know personally know that when i added ridgevent to our home two summer ago...that it dropped my summer electrical bill by a third.....is there still an energy savings with a closed system?

It doesn't make sense to me either. I'm a home builder for 40 years. But I don't live in Florida, so I suppose it's possible.
The weather here is very mild and warm. It's 70° here right now.
Quoting 788. Sfloridacat5:

My friend has an air conditioned three car garage. I can only imagine the extra cost to do that. But boy is it nice having an air conditioned garage when you want to work in the garage here in S.W. Florida.

I'm dripping wet with sweat after about 5 minutes in my garage.


The garage is part of the central A/C or do they use a window/wall unit? There are some reasonably priced A/C units made for garage spaces that are pretty effective. Personally, other than the fact that the garage door itself would allow a lot of warm air in, I wish garages were part of the central A/C system when houses are built. It would make storage a lot more feasible.
Quoting 769. tampabaymatt:



Beautiful fall-like day here in C FL.


Yeah definitely awesome weather, this front brought cooler air than was forecast here. The forecast high for us yesterday was 79 but we hit only 75, and the forecast low was 58 and we hit 53 this morning. It was pretty chilly early.

Most of the weak we'll be in the upper 70's to low 80's for highs and lows in the upper 50's, it's going to be nice.
.
Quoting 791. Jedkins01:



Yeah definitely awesome weather, this front brought cooler air than was forecast here. The forecast high for us yesterday was 79 but we hit only 75, and the forecast low was 58 and we hit 53 this morning. It was pretty chilly early.

Most of the weak we'll be in the upper 70's to low 80's for highs and lows in the upper 50's, it's going to be nice.


Yeah, I'm trying to enjoy this mild, drier pattern while it lasts, before the El Nino rain events kick in.
Quoting 757. LargoFl:

Navy model is bullish on making this a hurricane,6Z run still not completed yet.......


But it's still the the NAVGEM. If I had a vacation scheduled for an area and the NAVGEM had a hurricane making landfall without support from the better models, I wouldn't even think twice about continuing the vacation plans without considering a cancel.
Quoting 793. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, I'm trying to enjoy this mild, drier pattern while it lasts, before the El Nino rain events kick in.


Yeah as I was trying to explain to Scott a couple weeks back, El Nino usually doesn't impact October rainfall, and here we are high and dry as expected. October so far thankfully has actually cooled off notably. October is definitely not reliably much cooler than September, so it's nice to enjoy the years that it does get noticeably cooler and drier.
Quoting 744. tampabaymatt:





It's funny, growing up in southeast AZ, I still follow the area from time to time. I've been noticing the WPC way overdoes rainfall forecasts in these desert regions. Average yearly rain is about 8 inches down there. The WPC has been doing 1 week forecasts frequently of 2-3 inches widespread since the summer for the region. If their forecast was anywhere near accurate for that region, southeast AZ should be dealing with all time record breaking rain totals for the year like never seen before for the year along with epic floods.
Quoting 792. hydrus:

THE DOOMED PATH OF THE EL FARO CARGO SHIP
September 30
6.16am: Ten hours after heading out of Jacksonville, Florida, the ship begins to deviate from its usual straight-line route to San Juan, Puerto Rico. Data from the ship's tracker shows it is instead sailing nearer to the Bahamas and is on course to meet the storm's path.
5pm: The ship sails past the 'Hole in the Wall' - a gap in the Bahamas used by seafarers for centuries to travel through the islands toward Cuba.
Experts have claimed that using this route would have lengthened the ship's voyage and consumed more fuel - both possible factors in the captain's decision not to take it.
9pm: Data shows the ship is sailing at 20 knots (23mph) - close to its full speed - around 200 miles northwest of the storm.
October 1
2:09am: El Faro is only 50 miles from the eye of Joaquin. At this point the ship is still moving at nearly 17 knots (19.5mph), according to the tracking data.
3.56am: Facing fierce winds and high seas, the ship has made little progress.
In its last logged location, the ship is less than 50 miles from the eye of the storm and has slowed down to 10.7 knots (12mph).



This Captain did not loose power until he was very close to the eye.
Quoting 795. Jedkins01:



Yeah as I was trying to explain to Scott a couple weeks back, El Nino usually doesn't impact October rainfall, and here we are high and dry as expected. October so far thankfully has actually cooled off notably. October is definitely not reliably much cooler than September, so it's nice to enjoy the years that it does get noticeably cooler and drier.


For Tallahassee, yes, here, not so much. The lows did dip into the lower 70's though. The cold fronts tend to peter out around West Palm beach till December.
Quoting 789. ChiThom:


It doesn't make sense to me either. I'm a home builder for 40 years. But I don't live in Florida, so I suppose it's possible.
The weather here is very mild and warm. It's 70° here right now.


it's back to above average temps this week...last week was cooler...but our area was hit with three major hailstorms....i think we'd rather have to deal with the warm temps than that...LOL
Summer has stretched into October here in northern NM. We are still in shorts when usually we are in coats. And with none of the much hoped for El Nino rain yet.

Is this remnants of TS Marty???
Quoting 800. NMPhotog:

Summer has stretched into October here in northern NM. We are still in shorts when usually we are in coats. And with none of the much hoped for El Nino rain yet.


We should finally see the impacts of el nino as its affect during the summer months is minimal. October through december though during el nino we average wetter than normal...our temps usually though are near normal....and with the exception of last week here in el paso we've been above average and yes...i'm in shorts today also
Big cool down on tap for early next week according to the GFS:

Quoting 803. Drakoen:

Big cool down on tap for early next week according to the GFS:




That looks very familiar.
Quoting 801. PedleyCA:


Is this remnants of TS Marty???


It's actually the same ULL that brought us rain about a week ago, then caused problems in TX/NM before retrograding back to the west.
Quoting 797. hydrus:

This Captain did not loose power until he was very close to the eye.
After looking at that time line, I do have to wonder.... seems to me that by 5 p.M. it was obvious that the track of a major storm was directly crossing the ship's proposed path....
Quoting 795. Jedkins01:



Yeah as I was trying to explain to Scott a couple weeks back, El Nino usually doesn't impact October rainfall, and here we are high and dry as expected. October so far thankfully has actually cooled off notably. October is definitely not reliably much cooler than September, so it's nice to enjoy the years that it does get noticeably cooler and drier.


Most definitely. I'll take some mid 80s abd a few upper 60s at night. So far Orlando has been quite nice compared to a few weeks earlier.
Quoting 739. ChillinInTheKeys:



Too much information!
Dusting off the cookies that fell on the floor and placing them back onto the counter properly is always a good idea.
Quoting 773. ColoradoBob1:

Expanding the search for oil is necessary to pay for the damage caused by climate change, the Governor of Alaska has told the BBC.

The state is suffering significant climate impacts from rising seas forcing the relocation of remote villages.

Governor Bill Walker says that coping with these changes is hugely expensive.

He wants to "urgently" drill in the protected lands of the Arctic National Wilderness Refuge to fund them.


Link

I had to check again to make sure this wasn't an article from The Onion. Amazing.
Quoting 805. TimSoCal:



It's actually the same ULL that brought us rain about a week ago, then caused problems in TX/NM before retrograding back to the west.


OK. thanks I remember them saying something about that. Wasn't sure if it was this one. Thanks again...
The 6z and 18z of the NAVGEM only go out 144hrs, it's the 00z and 12z that go out 180hrs :)

Quoting 782. sar2401:

There's always the NAVGEM, or some other model, that will show something scary for Florida, no matter how improbable it is. There seems to be something wrong with 06z run of the NAVGEM since it's been stuck at 144 hours for the past three hours or so.

We should have a new blog right after my post....
Quoting 806. BahaHurican:

After looking at that time line, I do have to wonder.... seems to me that by 5 p.M. it was obvious that the track of a major storm was directly crossing the ship's proposed path....
Indeed. couple people here said that I was being insensitive to toward the captain and the family, that was not my intention to smear someone when they are no longer with us to defend themselves. I have known many captains and crew members, seen many ships, and as a merchant marine , have been in storms myself. Whether it was his or the companies decision to do what he did, we may never know. The bottom line is when I saw his course and timing with regard to the hurricane, and where his destination was located, I realized something terribly wrong.
Quoting 812. hydrus:

Indeed. couple people here said that I was being insensitive to toward the captain and the family, that was not my intention to smear someone when they are no longer with us to defend themselves. I have known many captains and crew members, seen many ships, and as a merchant marine , have been in storms myself. Whether it was his or the companies decision to do what he did, we may never know. The bottom line is when I saw his course and timing with regard to the hurricane, and where his destination was located, I realized something terribly wrong.
The map also shows an alternative track taken last month .... wonder if that deviation influenced his choice this time... sad story all around...
Quoting 813. BahaHurican:

The map also shows an alternative track taken last month .... wonder if that deviation influenced his choice this time... sad story all around...
had they taken the course near Northern Cuba, El Faro would likely still be sailing.
Quoting 771. LargoFl:


Currently our weather here in central wisconsin is increasing clouds with some spotty showers with winds sustained 15-20 MPH with winds gusting to 30-40MPH. And the gusts and winds are expected to increase until around 5PM.

It looks like we are getting our first fall-winter transition storm, kind of like the ones you see in November and December. Makes me curious on what we will see this winter.

Quoting 803. Drakoen:

Big cool down on tap for early next week according to the GFS:


That has been the pattern for two years now.Cold out east and warm out west...
Quoting 819. washingtonian115:

That has been the pattern for two years now.Cold out east and warm out west...


But it looks like this time it will only be temporary.
Quoting 819. washingtonian115:

That has been the pattern for two years now.Cold out east and warm out west...


The kids will probably get to use their ice skates again this year along the mid Atlantic.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 818. Gearsts:


I wonder how the proposed disintegration of this El Nino compares to the actual ending of the 1997-98 one?
825. vis0
Quoting 770. hydrus:

Update today about the El Faro...

Doomed cargo ship sailed FULL SPEED into the path of Hurricane Joaquin, tracking data reveals... as former crew members describe the vessel as a leaky 'rust bucket'.....Link

The tracking data, which was released on Thursday evening by Thomson Reuters Eikon, shows the ship did not follow its normal course.
The sinking has been called the worst cargo shipping disaster involving a U.S.-flagged vessel in more than 30 years.
El Faro began deviating from its typical route between Jacksonville, Florida, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, early on the morning of September 30, around 10 hours after it left Jacksonville.
By that evening, Reuters reports, the ship was trapped between the track of the storm, which had shifted further southwest during the day, and the Bahamas directly to her west. Throughout the day, the ship was sailing near full speed.
Klaus Luhta of the International Organization of Masters, Mates, and Pilots told Reuters: 'I don't know what he (the captain) was thinking. I can't even speculate. He headed right into the track.'
The data raises questions about the ship owner's assertion that the vessel's captain had chosen a 'sound plan' to pass around Joaquin 'with a margin of comfort' but was then thwarted by engineering problems.

Ship captains who reviewed the data said that on the morning of September 30, still north of the Bahamas and hundreds of miles from the storm, Davidson still had three good options: slow down to assess the weather; turn around; or change course, heading west and hugging the Florida coast.
He would have had access to weather forecasts every few hours from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) giving the likely speed, strength and direction of the storm. 
----could not edit this cmmnt so its posted as #826 below----
826. vis0
could not edit previous cmmnt as to a WxU member i highly respect (sit down sar2401, i meant Hydrus...this time) so here it is::

i (vis0)could be 99.9% wrong but...

my cmmnt at my zilly blog OF COURSE
will read as science fiction (SciFic) but its my explanation from my
1970s notes on the science i call Galacsics from the 1970s and remember
respected military pilots have been lost at sea in this area.
 (other
similar areas i state exist throughout the worlds ocean (on what i call
complex planets), but the next similar area should be between Tasmania
&  Marianna trench.
 Please TRY to read my zilly blog's (which includes serious info) pg3 cmmnt#150 or 151 or 152 .oops #145..cannot load pgs. properly today so not sure which cmmnt it was )

so i could be 99.9% wrong or some blend of scenarios in between my way-out theory (for 2015) and a more conventional explanation, BUT we first have to exhaust KNOWN possibilities so we can learn from any errors or yet unexplainable natural interferences to electromagnetic driven devices...