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Last Known Position of the Missing Ship El Faro: the Eyewall of Category 3 Joaquin

By: Jeff Masters 4:12 PM GMT on October 07, 2015

When the container ship El Faro left Jacksonville, Florida early on the morning of September 30, 2015, Tropical Storm Joaquin, with top winds of 70 mph, was located a few hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahama Islands. Joaquin was forecast to move west-southwest at 6 mph towards the islands and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by the next morning. The Captain knew he was charting a course that would take him within 200 miles of what was expected to be a hurricane, in a region where he could reasonably expect to see sustained winds near 35 mph and seas of ten feet--and even worse conditions if the storm put on an unanticipated bout of rapid intensification. Joaquin did just that, growing into a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds by 8 am EDT October 1. According to information shared with me by David Adams of Reuters, a marine positioning database showed the last position of the El Faro, at 7:56 am EDT on October 1, was 23.52°N, 74.02°W--right in the northwest eyewall of Joaquin. Somehow, the ship lost power while approaching Joaquin--perhaps a rogue wave hit the ship, disabling it--and without propulsion, the counter-clockwise flow of winds that spiraled into the center of the hurricane drew the ill-fated ship into Joaquin's eyewall. A ship without engine power is little match for a major hurricane, and survival in the water with 120 mph winds and 30+ foot waves is a formidable task. CNN reports that the Coast Guard will call off the search for the 33 missing people from the El Faro at 7 pm EDT Wednesday.


Figure 1. Surface wind speed of Hurricane Joaquin (in knots) at 8 am EDT October 1, 2015, as estimated by NOAA/RAMMB using data from the Hurricane Hunters. The last known position of the ship "El Faro" is plotted. This position was from 7:56 am EDT, just four minutes prior to the wind analysis shown. The ship was in the eyewall, just 40 miles to the northwest of the center, in a region where the winds were in excess of 80 knots (92 mph.) At this time, Joaquin was a Category 3 hurricane with peak sustained winds of 120 mph, and was moving west-southwest at 5 mph. Joaquin's radius of maximum winds (RMW) at this time was about 19 miles in a ring surrounding the center, with the peak winds observed in the southwest quadrant of the storm. Significant wave heights at the El Faro's location at this time were likely 20 - 30 feet, but would have grown higher as the hurricane pulled the ship into the radius of maximum winds.


Figure 2. Hurricane Joaquin as seen by the GOES-13 satellite at 8:15 am EDT October 1, 2015, 19 minutes after the El Faro's last known position in the northwest eyewall of the Category 3 hurricane. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Joaquin now a tropical storm
Joaquin has weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds as it speeds northeastwards at 35 mph out to sea. By Wednesday night, Joaquin will evolve into a powerful extratropical storm, and will steadily weaken as it heads towards Europe. By the time Joaquin reaches Portugal on Saturday, the ex-hurricane should have top winds of about 40 mph.


Figure 3. Hurricane Joaquin as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA'a Terra satellite at 11:05 am EDT October 6, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Nothing else cooking in the Atlantic
NHC is no longer generating forecast model output or giving any odds of development for the area of low pressure (Invest 91L) that was about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday morning. Satellite loops show that 91L is very unimpressive, with no spin and some disorganized heavy thunderstorms. This disturbance will bring some heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday, but none of our reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone development are predicting development of this system, or anything else in the Atlantic, over the next five days.


Figure 4. MODIS image of Hurricane Oho as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Tuesday, October 6, 2015. At the time, Oho was a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Oho misses Hawaii
Category 2 Hurricane Oho was speeding north-northeast at 34 mph in the waters 645 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii at 11 am EDT Wednesday. Oho was over waters of 27°C (81°F) on Wednesday morning, which is about 2°C above average--the warmest temperatures ever observed in these waters. On Thursday afternoon, Oho is expected to cross 140°W longitude, leaving the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility and entering the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility. Only one other tropical cyclone that formed in the Eastern or Central Pacific has done that since record keeping began in 1949--an unnamed 1975 storm that maintained hurricane strength to 46.8°N (the latitude of the Oregon/Washington border.) That storm was the only hurricane on record to make it farther to the northeast of Hawaii than 2014's Hurricane Ana, which maintained hurricane strength to a latitude of 36.3°N--approximately the latitude of Monterey, California. Ana died about 1,300 miles west of the California/Oregon border.


Figure 5. Typhoon Choi-wan as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA'a Aqua satellite at 03:25 UTC October 6, 2015. At the time, Choi-wan was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Choi-wan headed towards Russia and Northern Japan
In the Western Pacific, massive Tropical Storm Choi-wan has weakened to 70 mph winds after encountering cold water and high wind shear, and the storm is expected to die on Thursday over Russia's Kuril Islands near Northern Japan.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, Dr. Sad news indeed.

Speaking of rogue waves, does anybody have any good links or resources that discuss the phenomenon?
Thanks for the new blog
So when the ship lost power, the NW flow sucked them right into it's eyewall even more, which rolled the ship over probably....
Thank You Dr; tragic news that the Captain actually set sail into the heart of the oncoming storm. I am hopeful that the Maritime Industry will respond to this tragedy with alerts and refresher courses on what is expected in terms of weather analysis before a ship sets sail with lives on board. There will always be tragedies like this but the rogue wave is also a documented phenomenon which often occurs on the periphery of a storm or following a tsunami (underwater earthquake) which can literally arise with little warning.

With all respect to the Captain of this particular ship (and his family and the families or all the lost ones), his error in judgment (or lack of proper monitoring equipment on-board for weather related bulletins) is in-excusable given all of the advance warnings and location for this storm and where the ship was heading.
Quoting 4. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr; tragic news that the Captain actually set sail into the heart of the oncoming storm. I am hopeful that the Maritime Industry will respond to this tragedy with alerts and refresher courses on what is expected in terms of weather analysis before a ship sets sail with lives on board. There will always be tragedies like this but the rogue wave is also a documented phenomenon which often occurs on the periphery of a storm or following a tsunami (underwater earthquake) which can literally arise with little warning.

With all respect to the Captain of this particular ship (and his family and the families or all the lost ones), his error in judgment (or lack of proper monitoring equipment on-board for weather related bulletins) is in-excusable given all of the advance warnings and location for this storm and where the ship was heading.


from what I understand, the ship would have been able to avoid the storm for the most part but lost propulsion. The captain didn't decide to sail off into the eye of a hurricane. His ship became disabled in the path of the storm.
That ship ride must have been horrible. Very sad.
Quoting 5. BobinTampa:



from what I understand, the ship would have been able to avoid the storm for the most part but lost propulsion. The captain didn't decide to sail off into the eye of a hurricane. His ship became disabled in the path of the storm.


Point taken; perhaps the Captain was aware of the storm, was charting a course around the system, and the engines failed because of a mechanical failure (not related to the storm). I did not mean to sound insensitive to the missing crew.
We used to have a tug-boat Captain who would blog on here from his boat from time to time from the Eastern Seaboard coastal waters in-transit to let us know how much he enjoyed the Blog....................Wondering if he is still around and what his take is on this tragedy.
12z UKMET


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 30.0N 77.1W






12z GFS




"calls of the search for the 33 missing people from the El Faro soon."

I believe you mean "Calls OFF"
Hurricane Oho has managed to attain Cat 2 strength as it's chased by a negatively tilted trough powered by a 200 mph jet over the North Pacific.

Oho has a good chance of gaining enough momentum to keep its tropical status at a possibly record northeasterly position, and:
"...THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS THE CENTER OF OHO
POTENTIALLY CROSSING LONGITUDE 140W INTO THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA BETWEEN 24 AND 36
HOURS FROM NOW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT OHO WILL BE A VIABLE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHEN...AND IF...THIS
OCCURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD OHO ACTUALLY CROSS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE A RARE
OCCURRENCE...AT LEAST IN THE SATELLITE ERA. "
Quoting 8. weathermanwannabe:

We used to have a tug-boat Captain who would blog on here from his boat from time to time from the Eastern Seaboard coastal waters in-transit to let us know how much he enjoyed the Blog....................Wondering if he is still around and what his take is on this tragedy.
If you remember his handle, might be able to look him up.
It is quiet in here. Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters.....
Quoting 5. BobinTampa:



from what I understand, the ship would have been able to avoid the storm for the most part but lost propulsion. The captain didn't decide to sail off into the eye of a hurricane. His ship became disabled in the path of the storm.
Yep. Losing power is about the worst thing that can happen to a ship at sea. Even when there are no storms present. North Atlantic is known for its rapid formation of dangerous storms, and not just the tropics. The 1979 Fastnet Disaster being a prime example of what can happen to even the most experienced captains....Link

Never a dull moment...
I hope they are searching the entire path the eye has followed. We've seen buoys, birds and such thru various storms~ once they get sucked into the eye usually they don't get out until the storm strength drops significantly.
Quoting 15. PedleyCA:


Never a dull moment...


The "streaming" pattern out of the storm, with parts embedding into the Pacific jet, is certainly telegraphing where the storm or remnants are headed:




fall time here in new haven,conn cool nights now
Nothing about this makes sense, even the loss of power explanation. You're telling me a captain piloted a vessel all the way to within 40 miles of the center of a cat 3 hurricane before losing power? Not to mention that the storm AND vessel were both traveling in the same direction, it would have taken hours in terrible conditions to get that close.

The only explanation I can come up with is that the vessel was steered into the center of the storm on purpose. No captain that had any interest in surviving would have piloted a ship for that long, through conditions that bad, and not change course long before reaching the point they were at when power was lost.
would like to be in tofino for that one

Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:



The "streaming" pattern out of the storm, with parts embedding into the Pacific jet, is certainly telegraphing where the storm or remnants are headed:



Quoting 16. Skyepony:

I hope they are searching the entire path the eye has followed. We've seen buoys, birds and such thru various storms~ once they get sucked into the eye usually they don't get out until the storm strength drops significantly.


JQ still had an 'eye' near bermuda. You suggest they look that far north? Whether that costs 10k or several million $$, that would be better spent on the families of the crew.

I think the crew is peacefully resting, for eternity.
Quoting 19. pipelines:

Nothing about this makes sense, even the loss of power explanation. You're telling me a captain piloted a vessel all the way to within 40 miles of the center of a cat 3 hurricane before losing power? Not to mention that the storm AND vessel were both traveling in the same direction, it would have taken hours in terrible conditions to get that close.

The only explanation I can come up with is that the vessel was steered into the center of the storm on purpose. No captain that had any interest in surviving would have piloted a ship for that long, through conditions that bad, and not change course long before reaching the point they were at when power was lost.


It's all speculation at this point.
That's what I was thinking too Doc is that the El-Faro must have been hit by a rogue wave. The Coast Guard said in a press conference that waves were actually 50' near the center not 30'.
Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:



The "streaming" pattern out of the storm, with parts embedding into the Pacific jet, is certainly telegraphing where the storm or remnants are headed:





The jet ahead of the storm has a max of 125 mph, but the jet upstream that is driving the negative tilt is over 200 mph. Oho is just about at the tilt axis.
Some of the comments here are way over board about the captain of the ship.Catch you guys later.Try to enjoy the day the Lord has made.
Powerful WWB is causing a new OKW to materialize. This next OKW should boost anomalies subsurface greater than 8C. Notice the downward slope @ the Dateline.

Oho looks 115 mph earlier today and not 110 mph with a pretty pinhole eye..



20151007 0530 18.9 147.9 T5.5/5.5 07C OHO

Coincidence between engine room work and loss of power?

Water Depth Will Hinder El Faro Search

Excerpts:

The ship was crewed by 28 U.S. citizens, as well as five Polish nationals who were members of a so-called "riding gang" commonly hired to perform repairs and maintenance.

"The contractors were on board doing some work in the engine room space, they were not performing any work on the engines," said Philip Greene, who heads the ship management subsidiary Tote Services.

"They were doing preparatory work in order for the ship to be converted for service in the Alaska trade," Greene said.
Quoting 21. MonsterTrough:



JQ still had an 'eye' near bermuda. You suggest they look that far north? Whether that costs 10k or several million $$, that would be better spent on the families of the crew.

I think the crew is peacefully resting, for eternity.


Especially considering they have found two large debris fields and life boats among the wreckage, I am highly doubting that the crew managed to stay in the eye of the storm for days on end on the water.

I'm not going to so bluntly dismiss the crew's survival, but at this point, given what has been found thus far... the worst is likely what happened. It's a tragedy that should not have happened, but it's a dangerous reminder for businesses and shipping crews alike that it's a potentially deadly risk to take on a hurricane.

We still do not know the extent of the damage sustained in the Bahamas... do we? Which goes to show you that the damage goes to a pretty high extent. I wonder if they're even certain everyone has been accounted for and is alive.

I guess we may see two retired storm names this year, quite a destructive year given the current El Niño.
Seeing some tweets from experts that a pretty good MJO pulse is heading into the Atlantic basin in the near future. Could be what some of the longer term models are picking up on. I'm wondering if the wind shear will relax enough for something to develop. Right now it's doubtful.


the next storm to watch
Anyone in FL that doesn't have a NOAA Weather radio might want to get one over the next few weeks.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OHO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 AM HST WED OCT 07 2015

...POWERFUL HURRICANE OHO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 145.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OHO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.9 WEST. OHO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. OHO IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND
OHO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY LATE THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY POWERFUL HURRICANE OHO ARE
AFFECTING THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF TODAY...MAINLY ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.
Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:

That's what I was thinking too Doc is that the El-Faro must have been hit by a rogue wave. The Coast Guard said in a press conference that waves were actually 50' near the center not 30'.
I don't think it would take a rogue wave. The El Faro would have been very top heavy with all of those containers and could easily have rolled over to the point of no return without power to steer into the waves. This wiki has a photo of a WWII ship caught in Typhoon Cobra - easily a 20 degree roll. And that was a much less top-heavy ship in a Cat 2 100 mph storm.

Typhoon Cobra

Quoting 30. Bucsboltsfan:

Seeing some tweets from experts that a pretty good MJO pulse is heading into the Atlantic basin in the near future. Could be what some of the longer term models are picking up on. I'm wondering if the wind shear will relax enough for something to develop. Right now it's doubtful.


Interesting phase 2 MJO coming. Could see something in the Western Caribbean come next week.
12z GFS continues to hint at a storm developing in the NW Carribbean as the MJO pulsate back into the Atlantic late next week.



Bottomline is the season is not over yet.
severe weather this winter in florida? might get off to an early start with a possible mid october cyclone
Quoting 37. islander101010:

severe weather this winter in florida? might get off to an early start with a possible mid october cyclone


GFS does this every year though. I will say there is a decent MJO moving toward the Caribbean.
I'm sure the El Faro and it's crew also enjoyed that fine day that "the lord" made for them last week!

Quoting 25. help4u:

Some of the comments here are way over board about the captain of the ship.Catch you guys later.Try to enjoy the day the Lord has made.

Not sure I buy into notion of ship being essentially "sucked into the vortex" much farther than it's last position at final distress call. The expanse of the search area is for survivors / debris field at the surface which little doubt could be tossed afar. The search for survivors by USCG may soon end, but interests will continue looking / listening for pings from the ship's voyage data recorder, "black box" to locate the sunken vessel.
"Search on for US ship's black box"
Quoting 15. PedleyCA:


Never a dull moment...
I hope it doesn't dampen the excitement but the Central Pacific Hurricane Center plots the last two positions as Post-Tropical.
Link
IOD turing strongly positive now. This signature favors continued strengthening with this El-Nino.

Quoting 5. BobinTampa:



from what I understand, the ship would have been able to avoid the storm for the most part but lost propulsion. The captain didn't decide to sail off into the eye of a hurricane. His ship became disabled in the path of the storm.
Well, the ship was still under power late Wednesday when Joaquin was already a formidable storm, yet the captain chose to continue straight into the storm. Had he truly wished to avoid the storm, he would have taken the 12-hour hit and guided the El Faro southward along Florida's east coast--not plunged headlong into it hoping he could skirt by on the fringes of the eyewall.
Thanks dok!
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:

Anyone in FL that doesn't have a NOAA Weather radio might want to get one over the next few weeks.




*sees Occasional Mild Days*

Oh are you kidding me.

Feth.
Quoting 18. hurricanes2018:



fall time here in new haven,conn cool nights now

Poison ivy can always be counted on to put on a good show
bermuda triangle told you all.
I feel a little silly posting these since NC yet again escaped a dire looking situation unscathed for the most part and our SC community would likely scoff at them, but here they be:

Sunday


Today
Quoting 45. 62901IL:



*sees Occasional Mild Days*

Oh are you kidding me.

Feth.


It might be oohkay oohtside, don't cha know?
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:

Anyone in FL that doesn't have a NOAA Weather radio might want to get one over the next few weeks.



Yeah, I've been dreading this winter ever since El Niño reared its pin-like head.

I can't wait to get out of FL.
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:

Anyone in FL that doesn't have a NOAA Weather radio might want to get one over the next few weeks.




Can't wait for Winter to get here because right now we have no rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future!
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:

Anyone in FL that doesn't have a NOAA Weather radio might want to get one over the next few weeks.


Gonna start boarding my house lol!
Quoting 50. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, I've been dreading this winter ever since El Niño reared its pin-like head.

I can't wait to get out of FL.


Don't leave, the sane to insane ratio is currently bad enough.
Quoting 43. Neapolitan:

Well, the ship was still under power late Wednesday when Joaquin was already a formidable storm, yet the captain chose to continue straight into the storm. Had he truly wished to avoid the storm, he would have taken the 12-hour hit and guided the El Faro southward along Florida's east coast--not plunged headlong into it hoping he could skirt by on the fringes of the eyewall.


The vessel spent hours in Tropical Storm and Hurricane force winds heading directly into the center of a major Hurricane before it lost power. This doesn't sound like an error of judgement to me but more like suicide. I doubt there is a single captain out there that thinks they are likely to make it through the center of a major hurricane....

Puerto Rico battles record heat wave amid drought

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) %u2014 Puerto Rico is facing a record-breaking heat wave this month amid an ongoing drought.

The National Weather Service said the first five days of October are the warmest in the history of the U.S. territory for the month since record-keeping began.


Link
Quoting 43. Neapolitan:

Well, the ship was still under power late Wednesday when Joaquin was already a formidable storm, yet the captain chose to continue straight into the storm. Had he truly wished to avoid the storm, he would have taken the 12-hour hit and guided the El Faro southward along Florida's east coast--not plunged headlong into it hoping he could skirt by on the fringes of the eyewall.


I agree, there was a point on Wed. afternoon when the captain, with a functioning engine, decided to try and slip between a strengthening Joaquin and Long island and not change course. Whether his engines failed due to high seas (seems most likely) or some other reason it was seriously irresponsible. Even if we find out that his engines failed for some other reason the blame is still on the captain because he made the choice to go for it, with full knowledge of the approaching storm. Again, I'm calling it pure hubris.

91L is trying to organise east of dominica and guadeloupe
Quoting 41. LowerCal:

I hope it doesn't dampen the excitement but the Central Pacific Hurricane Center plots the last two positions as Post-Tropical.
Link

and over 1500 miles out at the closest point to me...
Oh and as for the suicide comments. The ship lost power and then the vortex pulled it in toward the eye, in my opinion there was no intentional harm here just plain bravado.
Quoting 53. Naga5000:



Don't leave, the sane to insane ratio is currently bad enough.

I appreciate the sentiment, Naga...but my choices are this:



or this:



I think the bottom pic is where I want to be. :-)
Don't doubt it for a second.

Floating carpets of fire ants in flood-ridden SC [Link]
rain is better than no rain....
unless its a 1 in 1000 year rain...

Quoting 50. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, I've been dreading this winter ever since El Niño reared its pin-like head.

I can't wait to get out of FL.
Quoting 49. win1gamegiantsplease:



It might be oohkay oohtside, don't cha know?


I like snow. And ICE. And Sleet. those are a proper winter.
Quoting 63. 19N81W:

rain is better than no rain....
unless its a 1 in 1000 year rain...



Rain doesn't bother me. Tornadoes, and hurricanes are less easily dealt with than rain, or even the ungodly heat and humidity.
Quoting 65. Misanthroptimist:


Rain doesn't bother me. Tornadoes, and hurricanes are less easily dealt with than rain, or even the ungodly heat and humidity.


Ya know wat bothas me? A winter wiv no snow, ice, or sleet. :D :D :D :D :D
Quoting 59. PedleyCA:


and over 1500 miles out at the closest point to me...



Heh. Read this:

NOTE THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS THE CENTER OF OHO
POTENTIALLY CROSSING LONGITUDE 140W INTO THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA BETWEEN 24 AND 36
HOURS FROM NOW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT OHO WILL BE A VIABLE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHEN...AND IF...THIS
OCCURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD OHO ACTUALLY CROSS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE A RARE
OCCURRENCE...AT LEAST IN THE SATELLITE ERA.
Don't know why we have swell conditions but 3 Palmas is 2ble overhead today...



Incorporating the 15z advisory on Joaquin, the cyclone has accrued 27.4055 units of ACE--that is the highest total since 2010's Igor and 50% of this year's seasonal ACE count (54.713 units).



Despite the deficit in the Atlantic, things are a bit different across the Northern Hemisphere...



Note: NE Pac = East Pacific added to Central Pacific in my chart
Yes, that is pretty. I'm guessing the long fetch of northerly winds along the eastern seaboard and behind departing Joaquin.

Quoting 68. sunlinepr:

Don't know why we have swell conditions but 3 Palmas is 2ble overhead today...




Hi all - regarding the El Faro..so sad for the crew's family and friends. I too think this is the result of Hubris....lets not forget the incredibly stupid captain of the Bounty which sailed straight into hurricane Sandy...a square rigger type sailing ship into a major hurricane...on purpose no less. I'm sure the capt. of the Bounty thought he could beat the storm but geez..sandy was well broadcast and this dope actually left port in N.E. and set a course smack dab into a hurricane...staying course for many days as Sandy grew stronger and as her course ( at least in the area of SC and NC) became clear. Perhaps the El Faro's Capt was the brother of the Bounty Capt.



no more yellow x!!
Quoting 59. PedleyCA:


and over 1500 miles out at the closest point to me...

Quoting 58. stoormfury:

91L is trying to organise east of dominica and guadeloupe


Uh...that's a lot of arc clouds in that mix. Maybe some thunderstorms flaring up, but I wouldn't say it's trying to organize.

I lurk to find information here. This makes me sick to know that 33 people are missing. 'Calling off the search'. WOW. 2 kids go missing and over 3 weeks of searches off of FLA, GA and SC coast for these 2 kids. This is WRONG. Not even a week and they are calling off a search for these people. GOD SPEED and I hope some will survive. Just wrong. It was also wrong IMO not to look for survivors before looking for that ship....
Not wrong, wished those two young sailers would have been found.
I hope this does not pan out.......what model is that?
Quoting 76. Grothar:


Quoting 79. 19N81W:

I hope this does not pan out.......what model is that?



Experimental FIM9 model (NOAA).
Quoting 75. JustPlantIt:

I lurk to find information here. This makes me sick to know that 33 people are missing. 'Calling off the search'. WOW. 2 kids go missing and over 3 weeks of searches off of FLA, GA and SC coast for these 2 kids. This is WRONG. Not even a week and they are calling off a search for these people. GOD SPEED and I hope some will survive. Just wrong. It was also wrong IMO not to look for survivors before looking for that ship....


those people are gone along with that ship which likely followed the under current several hundred miles of last known position
their gone to think otherwise is futile it was a cat 4 possibly very near cat 5 conditions it was over for them the minute they left Jackson

should of took the long way around but they chose to challenge nature well nature won


may god have mercy on there souls
good blog doc nice read
thanks
how has it done this year?
Quoting 80. Grothar:



Experimental FIM9 model (NOAA).
Just noting that in the new world of "instant" news, when bad things happen where human action or error is at play, we immediately get thousands of armchair quarterbacks (like us in here on weather issues and the current comments including mine earlier as to the ship sinking), in terms of what probably happened. Tough at best to actually know what exactly happened in many cases unless we have real time communications from the scene or surviving eye witnesses accounts (or black box data in the case of many transportation accidents) and even then we might never be able to put all the pieces together. The hope is that we can ultimately try not to repeat the same mistakes or other prevention measures..................................A tragedy all the way around (and also in the recent wake of the two young men also lost at sea with the small capsized boat off the coast of Florida).

Quoting 79. 19N81W:

I hope this does not pan out.......what model is that?



An Eye the size of Rhode Island? That would be a sight to see. And then run away from.

Quoting 74. fmbill:



Uh...that's a lot of arc clouds in that mix. Maybe some thunderstorms flaring up, but I wouldn't say it's trying to organize.


It seems there is less shear, a chance to organized a bit, but so far nothing is happening....
RE: comment # 81. No, it was not over them. Sorry, you are wrong. They were aware of a 'Tropical Storm' when they left Fla. The storm changed dramatically with direction and pressure.
So sad.
Friend was lost.
Well, it is now season here. Just got into a screaming match at the local BJ's because some pissy man saw it fit to literally scream at my 5 year old daughter and almost ran her over with his cart. I can't stand this time of the year. Oh, and it is hot! That makes this comment weather related ;-)
Quoting 53. Naga5000:



Don't leave, the sane to insane ratio is currently bad enough.
Tropical Storm JOAQUIN

5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 7 2015
Location: 41.5°N 41.0°W
Moving: E at 37 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
In addition to your comment which I agree with I think part of the reactions of people is the fear that these things are still able to happen today. With the level of up to the second instrumentation and pinpoint accuracy GPS's etc. it does seem crazy.
Its almost as if to blame the dead man is the easiest solution to ease fears.....it just had to be his fault right?
777'S can disappear so can ships we were not there to know what happened. I would suggest we give them a certain level of dignity especially without knowing the facts remember they are gone and we are still here.

Quoting 84. weathermanwannabe:

Just noting that in the new world of "instant" news, when bad things happen where human action or error is at play, we immediately get thousands of armchair quarterbacks (like us in here on weather issues and the current comments including mine earlier as to the ship sinking), in terms of what probably happened. Tough at best to actually know what exactly happened in many cases unless we have real time communications from the scene or surviving eye witnesses accounts (or black box data in the case of many transportation accidents) and even then we might never be able to put all the pieces together. The hope is that we can ultimately try not to repeat the same mistakes or other prevention measures..................................A tragedy all the way around (and also in the recent wake of the two young men also lost at sea with the small capsized boat off the coast of Florida).


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015

...JOAQUIN HAS BEGUN ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 41.0W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was
located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 41.0 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the east near 37 mph (59 km/h), and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected to continue for the next day
or two with some decrease in forward speed forecast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joaquin
is forecast to lose tropical characteristics this evening, and to
become a large extratropical cyclone by Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so. Swells affecting much of the
eastern coast of the United States are now mostly associated with a
non-tropical area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, and
these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in
association with these swells. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015

Joaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone.
The cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the
center partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep
convection. In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western
periphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming
better defined well northeast of the center. Earlier ASCAT data
still showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind
speed is held at 60 kt.

The storm should gradually lose strength while it moves over
progressively colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep
convection should disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C,
and Joaquin is expected to become post-tropical at that time. Global
models are in good agreement on the cyclone becoming a large
extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to
form near the center. The official intensity forecast is basically
an update of the previous one, and remains in close agreement with
the GFS forecast.

Joaquin is speeding eastward at 32 kt, embedded in strong westerly
flow north of the subtropical ridge, which should keep the cyclone
moving to the east or east-northeast at a slower forward speed for
another day or two. Thereafter, the cyclone should slow down even
more and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the
influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.
The guidance continues to migrate southward, and the official
forecast is moved in that direction, near a blend of the Florida
State Superensemble and the ECMWF models.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and
beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 41.5N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 42.0N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1800Z 42.7N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0600Z 43.6N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1800Z 43.8N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 43.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 41.5N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Quoting 58. stoormfury:

91L is trying to organise east of dominica and guadeloupe



There is no 91L
Quoting 87. JustPlantIt:

RE: comment # 81. No, it was not over them. Sorry, you are wrong. They were aware of a 'Tropical Storm' when they left Fla. The storm changed dramatically with direction and pressure.
So sad.
Friend was lost.
feel bad for the friend sorry

but that's not correct updated weather conditions must of been transmitted too that ship they knew what it was and what it was doing just could not do anything about it because of on board problems engine electrical or what have you at that point there fate was sealed

again sorry for the loss sad yes but its the hazard of the job
when you set sail out of port
there is always a chance
you may never come back
always
Quoting 87. JustPlantIt:
RE: comment # 81. No, it was not over them. Sorry, you are wrong. They were aware of a 'Tropical Storm' when they left Fla. The storm changed dramatically with direction and pressure.
So sad.
Friend was lost.
Co-worker's hubby was on the ElFaro. She is in denial... "he is coming home"....
Quoting 93. Tazmanian:




There is no 91L
its ex-91L NOW
Eight Bells to the Captain and crew. RIP.
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



those people are gone along with that ship which likely followed the under current several hundred miles of last known position
their gone to think otherwise is futile it was a cat 4 possibly very near cat 5 conditions it was over for them the minute they left Jackson

should of took the long way around but they chose to challenge nature well nature won


may god have mercy on there souls

Not completely their fault, there should be a protocol to prevent this kind of tragedy. I'm sure it exist. Who was in charge to aloud a cargo ship, sail to the eye of an intensifying storm, that was forecast to be a hurricane. With today's, technology, there're lot of questions that need answers by someone.. ...
#95. I Am hoping that someone survived this. I really do not think that the Captain was to blame. My friend does not think so either. Make me cry
Quoting 95. aquak9:

Co-worker's hubby was on the ElFaro. She is in denial... "he is coming home"....

it will be a while before she accepts it
if ever to a sailors wife they will always be alive
somewhere out there on the seas
till they rtn at the trips end

so sad

Quoting 95. aquak9:

Co-worker's hubby was on the ElFaro. She is in denial... "he is coming home"....
It's okay to have hope. For a while. Those lifeboats (and reports said there were several aboard) have a few weeks of provisions aboard. Albeit if the uscg was following drift patterns, which I'm sure they were, one would think they'd have spotted them as they are bright orange. Stranger outcomes have happened though when all hope was lost.


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 8h8 hours ago
Interesting flip in the Atlantic coming by end of the month as MJO begins to amplify again. Watch west Carib. & GOM

in the face of a hurricane west wind

When suppertime came the old cook came on deck sayin'
"Fellas, it's too rough t'feed ya"
At seven P.M. a main hatchway caved in; he said,
"Fellas, it's bin good t'know ya!"
The captain wired in he had water comin' in
and the good ship and crew was in peril
And later that night when 'is lights went outta sight
came the wreck of the the container ship El Faro

R.I.P.
Quoting 100. JustPlantIt:
#95. I Am hoping that someone survived this. I really do not think that the Captain was to blame. My friend does not think so either. Make me cry
JP- I am sick over it, too... I mean in this day and age, with so many primary, secondary, tertiary stop-gap measures in place for propulsion, communication, navigation...

If anyone had ever told me I'd be reading a blog like this, I'd never have believed'm.

Peace ya'll.
Edmund Fitzgerald was forty years ago, Keep...

NEVER in this world should we sing that song for an occurence now. NOT NOW. It just should not be. This is all wrong, somehow life took a crooked path and in another timeline, this NEVER HAPPENED.

In another timeline, the ElFaro is still here.

I hate this crooked path that we have fallen into.
Just wow!
Link
When the container ship El Faro left Jacksonville, Florida early on the morning of September 30, 2015, Tropical Storm Joaquin, with top winds of 70 mph, was located a few hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahama Islands.

According to ShippingExplorer.net she left Jacksonville at 9:36 PM on the night of September 29th. What is the source for the claim that she departed "early in the morning of September 30"? The exact time of its departure is not something being widely reported. The ship was capable of making 22 knots, or 25 mph. It couldn't have gotten very far by the time the 11 PM advisories were issued if, in fact, it left at approximately 9:30 PM.

The forecasts were changing rapidly every few hours at the time, but the 11 PM NHC products clearly say JQ was likely to become a hurricane within 24 hours and that watches and warnings might be going up for the Bahamas very soon. Maybe shipping companies have arrangements for a contractor to provide them with weather forecasts. If that's the case then their forecast provider would have some explaining to do.

Indeed everything is speculation at this point. Here's hoping they are able to find the wreck and retrieve the ship's data recorders from 15,000 feet down.

The cause of the propulsion problems is a key piece of information we don't have yet. Were the propulsion problems caused by sea conditions or were they coincidental? Nobody knows yet.
Quoting 103. Gearsts:



Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 8h8 hours ago
Interesting flip in the Atlantic coming by end of the month as MJO begins to amplify again. Watch west Carib. & GOM


b yep i kept mentioned that earlier this week but now its looking more stronger.
Quoting 64. 62901IL:



I like snow. And ICE. And Sleet. those are a proper winter.


Snow yay, ice nay

Mainly because of the drivers here, it's like they've never stepped on an ice cube before. And the vegetation, top heavy trees and palms (they don't like it).
Quoting 103. Gearsts:



Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 8h8 hours ago
Interesting flip in the Atlantic coming by end of the month as MJO begins to amplify again. Watch west Carib. & GOM


Maybe the GFS is gonna get there break and is on to something with that system they have been predicting for the past week?
Tropical wave and associated convection that will be moving east of 60 west soon and eventually north of Puerto Rico conditionally should be improving. Could have another re-curving named storm in the coming days.
Quoting 108. UrcaDeLima:

When the container ship El Faro left Jacksonville, Florida early on the morning of September 30, 2015, Tropical Storm Joaquin, with top winds of 70 mph, was located a few hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahama Islands.

According to ShippingExplorer.net she left Jacksonville at 9:36 PM on the night of September 29th. What is the source for the claim that she departed "early in the morning of September 30"? The exact time of its departure is not something being widely reported. The ship was capable of making 22 knots, or 25 mph. It couldn't have gotten very far by the time the 11 PM advisories were issued if, in fact, it left at approximately 9:30 PM.

The forecasts were changing rapidly every few hours at the time, but the 11 PM NHC products clearly say JQ was likely to become a hurricane within 24 hours and that watches and warnings might be going up for the Bahamas very soon. Maybe shipping companies have arrangements for a contractor to provide them with weather forecasts. If that's the case then their forecast provider would have some explaining to do.

Indeed everything is speculation at this point. Here's hoping they are able to find the wreck and retrieve the ship's data recorders from 15,000 feet down.

The cause of the propulsion problems is a key piece of information we don't have yet. Were the propulsion problems caused by sea conditions or were they coincidental? Nobody knows yet.

To me it is very illogical a well prepared captain and the rest of the crew go to meet with a storm at high seas. This is a very suspicious situation. The information provided so far is incomplete and confused.
Good afternoon all.

Quoting 28. nrtiwlnvragn:

Coincidence between engine room work and loss of power?

Water Depth Will Hinder El Faro Search

Excerpts:

The ship was crewed by 28 U.S. citizens, as well as five Polish nationals who were members of a so-called "riding gang" commonly hired to perform repairs and maintenance.

"The contractors were on board doing some work in the engine room space, they were not performing any work on the engines," said Philip Greene, who heads the ship management subsidiary Tote Services.

"They were doing preparatory work in order for the ship to be converted for service in the Alaska trade," Greene said.
Thanks for the link. Does anybody have an idea of what the route the ship was following may have been? I'm disputing with someone whether a ship like this headed for San Juan would continue down the North side of The Bahamas / TCI, maintaining a SEly course, or whether they would have turned south through the Crooked Island Passage or the one to the east or west of Mayaguana before heading east again ....
Quoting 29. LostTomorrows:



Especially considering they have found two large debris fields and life boats among the wreckage, I am highly doubting that the crew managed to stay in the eye of the storm for days on end on the water.

I'm not going to so bluntly dismiss the crew's survival, but at this point, given what has been found thus far... the worst is likely what happened. It's a tragedy that should not have happened, but it's a dangerous reminder for businesses and shipping crews alike that it's a potentially deadly risk to take on a hurricane.

We still do not know the extent of the damage sustained in the Bahamas... do we? Which goes to show you that the damage goes to a pretty high extent. I wonder if they're even certain everyone has been accounted for and is alive.

I guess we may see two retired storm names this year, quite a destructive year given the current El Niño.
IN terms of loss of life, so far everyone has been accounted for. There is still one elderly man who died during the storm, though they are still debating whether the storm itself was the cause of death. I heard a rumor about an autopsy ....

The damage here has been catastrophic. Several settlements in Crooked Island and southern Long Island, which bore the brunt of Joaquin for numerous hours while it began to turn, were almost totally destroyed by winds and flooding. About 50 people were evacuated from Crooked Island, mainly women and children, due to the extent of the damage. I haven't heard assessment details for the utilities as yet, but the best estimate I heard for Rum Cay, which was in the eye as Joaquin began to exit our waters, was 2 weeks. People in New Providence have been generous and there has been an outpouring of support, but the rebuilding efforts are going to take quite some time.
115. beell
Quoting 114. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon all.

Thanks for the link. Does anybody have an idea of what the route the ship was following may have been? I'm disputing with someone whether a ship like this headed for San Juan would continue down the North side of The Bahamas / TCI, maintaining a SEly course, or whether they would have turned south through the Crooked Island Passage or the one to the east or west of Mayaguana before heading east again .... IN terms of loss of life, so far everyone has been accounted for. There is still one elderly man who died during the storm, though they are still debating whether the storm itself was the cause of death. I heard a rumor about an autopsy ....

The damage here has been catastrophic. Several settlements in Crooked Island and southern Long Island, which bore the brunt of Joaquin for numerous hours while it began to turn, were almost totally destroyed by winds and flooding. About 50 people were evacuated from Crooked Island, mainly women and children, due to the extent of the damage. I haven't heard assessment details for the utilities as yet, but the best estimate I heard for Rum Cay, which was in the eye as Joaquin began to exit our waters, was 2 weeks. People in New Providence have been generous and there has been an outpouring of support, but the rebuilding efforts are going to take quite some time.


Thanks for the report, Baha. Best wishes to the Commonwealth on the rebuild. I bet board-for-board, roof-by-roof ya'll do it as well as anybody in the world!

I had a curious question or two if it is within your broad knowledge base :)
How difficult would it be to find a safe water passage with adequate sea room to avoid shoal water/numerous islands, etc, directly west of El Faro's route? Presumably, a vessel (a 700' plus container ship) with reduced maneuverability/propulsion problems in heavy seas and wind. I am assuming the engine trouble existed at least for some time prior to the last radio contact.

Did the choice become one of continuing on or risk a grounding by heading west?
Four of the officers on the El Faro were members of Maine Maritime Academy, my alma mater. Danielle Randolph, the second mate was only two years behind me and as she was in the same company of the Regiment of Midshipman. I stood watches with her during the two years we overlapped at school. While I can't say I knew her well, and haven't had any contact with her since I graduated, my thoughts and prayers go out to her and her family. Having sailed on the high seas myself, it is truly a dangerous, terrifying, unforgiving world when the weather turns against you and for the sake of everyone on board that ship, I hope that the end was quick. As we say at the Academy when any student or alumni passes on, eight bells have rung.
Quoting 11. BayFog:

[...]...THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS THE CENTER OF OHO
POTENTIALLY CROSSING LONGITUDE 140W INTO THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA BETWEEN 24 AND 36
HOURS FROM NOW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT OHO WILL BE A VIABLE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHEN...AND IF...THIS
OCCURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD OHO ACTUALLY CROSS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE A RARE
OCCURRENCE...AT LEAST IN THE SATELLITE ERA. "
Was it common during the "airplane era" or even the "ship era"?

I suspect it was more common in the Eemian period, when hippopotami wallowed in the Rhine.
Quoting 115. beell:



Thanks for the report, Baha. Best wishes to the Commonwealth on the rebuild. I bet board-for-board, roof-by-roof ya'll do it as well as anybody in the world!

I had a curious question or two if it is within your broad knowledge base :)
How difficult would it be to find a safe water passage with adequate sea room to avoid shoal water/numerous islands, etc, directly west of El Faro's route? Presumably, a vessel (a 700' plus container ship) with reduced maneuverability/propulsion problems in heavy seas and wind. I am assuming the engine trouble existed at least for some time prior to the last radio contact.

Did the choice become one of continuing on or risk a grounding by heading west?
This is one reason I was asking about the route. Realistically his only turn off prior to Crooked Island was the NE arm of the NW Bahamas Channel. More and more I'm convinced this was a rock and a hard place type decision. In fact, an attempt to turn back might have been equally problematic...
This next system might be rather large.

X91L...




Based on the long range models, the west Caribbean is the next area to watch. Shear is decreasing in the area and the GFS and euro both show something going on there in 10 days.

This is way too far out, but the GFS shows the system nearing Florida 4 days before the 10 year mark of the last hurricane to hit Florida (Wilma) -- which was also the last major hurricane (Cat 3+) to make landfall in the US. The FIM experimental model also shows w. carib development by 10/20 see

Long range experimental FIM model, take with several grains of salt. All this means is watch the w. Carib for development


This is long range and all this really means is watch the West Caribbean late next week and the week after this does NOT mean this will occur.

credit CFL Hurr


Post Extras: Print Post Remind Me! Notify Moderator
Quoting 119. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This next system might be rather large.


Looks like a HEAP of moisture, if the shear levels are low, than anything is bound to happen. With the October tracks FL could be in trouble, but we will have to see as this is a "ghost storm"
123. beell
Quoting 118. BahaHurican:

This is one reason I was asking about the route. Realistically his only turn off prior to Crooked Island was the NE arm of the NW Bahamas Channel. More and more I'm convinced this was a rock and a hard place type decision. In fact, an attempt to turn back might have been equally problematic...


Thanks for indulging in my speculation!
A grounding and break-up would have been an environmental mess. Perhaps no loss of life.

Between Scylla and Charybdis indeed.

Scylla and Charybdis, in Greek mythology, two immortal and irresistible monsters who beset the narrow waters traversed by the hero Odysseus in his wanderings described in Homer's Odyssey, Book XII. They were later localized in the Strait of Messina.
Quoting 118. BahaHurican:

This is one reason I was asking about the route. Realistically his only turn off prior to Crooked Island was the NE arm of the NW Bahamas Channel. More and more I'm convinced this was a rock and a hard place type decision. In fact, an attempt to turn back might have been equally problematic...


Why would a turn back be problematic considering the situation ahead?
Quoting 76. Grothar:




Well it seems Cayman and Cuba and maybe Florida or Bahamas may be in for a hurricane soon

Quoting 79. 19N81W:

I hope this does not pan out.......what model is that?




Well you wanted some good rain and now here is you chance lol
Quoting 114. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon all.

Thanks for the link. Does anybody have an idea of what the route the ship was following may have been? I'm disputing with someone whether a ship like this headed for San Juan would continue down the North side of The Bahamas / TCI, maintaining a SEly course, or whether they would have turned south through the Crooked Island Passage or the one to the east or west of Mayaguana before heading east again ..
There were only two routes I saw large vessels use. One was southeast through the NW Providence Channel between the Great and Little Bahama Banks, due east past Abaco to the south, and then into the North Atlantic SE in the Exuma Sound to any of the Caribbean islands except Cuba and west. They would always stay well east of the remaining Bahamas because the risk of shoal water was so great. Ships headed to Cuba west went south down the Straights of Florida. From the map in the blog, it looks like the El Faro was following the normal route east of the Bahamas. There were other routes used by coasters headed for another Bahamas port or T&C, but they would have been far too shallow for a ship the size of the El Faro. If I was sailing south, I'd stick to the Exuma Bank side of the central and southern islands where I knew the water was too shallow to encounter one of these large containers ships. Even with a radar reflector up, one of those vessels would still not see you, and they'd run you down and never even know it.
ex-invest 91L I SEE new t.storm with it


Tropical Storm JOAQUIN HAS BEGUN ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW..

Joaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone. The cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the center partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep
convection. In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western periphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming better defined well northeast of the center. Earlier ASCAT data
still showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt.
DOOM!!! This could be interesting with the upcoming upward motion of the MJO and Fall season trough pattern could pick this up out of the Caribbean and swing it towards FL. this would also coincide with climatology of past storms that have slammed into the southwest/west FL. coast most notable Wilma, 1944 Cuba-Florida hurricane, and 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane.

Quoting 126. nrtiwlnvragn:





Accuracy of three major weather forecasting services



That pretty well confirms the accuracy of my local TV mets. Every cloud has rain, all rain might be in a thunderstorm, all thunderstorms might be severe, and all severe thunderstorms might have a tornado. Unless it's absolutely clear, there's always a chance of rain with them.
Quoting 127. sar2401:

There were only two routes I saw large vessels use. One was southeast through the NW Providence Channel between the Great and Little Bahama Banks, due east past Abaco to the south, and then into the North Atlantic SE in the Exuma Sound to any of the Caribbean islands except Cuba and west. They would always stay well east of the remaining Bahamas because the risk of shoal water was so great. Ships headed to Cuba west went south down the Straights of Florida. From the map in the blog, it looks like the El Faro was following the normal route east of the Bahamas. There were other routes used by coasters headed for another Bahamas port or T&C, but they would have been far too shallow for a ship the size of the El Faro. If I was sailing south, I'd stick to the Exuma Bank side of the central and southern islands where I knew the water was too shallow to encounter one of these large containers ships. Even with a radar reflector up, one of those vessels would still not see you, and they'd run you down and never even know it.
I'm confused. Are you saying one route was down the west side of Cat Island and Long Island through the Exuma Sound? And the other was straight down the east side of those islands and past The Turks and Caicos to the east?

I can't imagine trying to get out of the Sound on the south side .... [scratching head]
Quoting 124. DogtownMex:



Why would a turn back be problematic considering the situation ahead?
Depending on how late they waited to make that turn, the torsion might actually cause things like propellers etc. to malfunction, leading to engine problems.
Quoting 125. wunderkidcayman:



Well it seems Cayman and Cuba and maybe Florida or Bahamas may be in for a hurricane soon

Can you imagine a hurricane like Wilma hitting FLA on the 10 year anniversary?! Would be illuminati confirmed lol
Quoting 122. Camerooski:

Looks like a HEAP of moisture, if the shear levels are low, than anything is bound to happen. With the October tracks FL could be in trouble, but we will have to see as this is a "ghost storm"
I am not appreciating even the ghost of an idea of addition extended rain over the SE and Central Bahamas.
Quoting 130. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM!!! This could be interesting with the upcoming upward motion of the MJO and Fall season trough pattern could pick this up out of the Caribbean and swing it towards FL. this would also coincide with climatology of past storms that have slammed into the southwest/west FL. coast most notable Wilma, 1944 Cuba-Florida hurricane, and 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane.


1008 mb is pretty low on the DOOM!!! scale though. :-) The GFS has consistently had a storm between 336 and 372 hours for the past three days. When I run the model back in time, however, I can never find a consistent seed. All I see is a low appearing, disappearing, and hopping around from Columbia to the Gulf of Panama. And, it is 336 hours out...
lol ....

Not really funny, but someone on the radio suggesting that people [HELLO!!!!] should do a lot of their preparation BEFORE the storm actually arrives ....

From a HEALTH perspective .... :o)

Sheesh ....
I said this yesterday, but it would not be Illuminati induced. At this point it's only GFS/FIM induced.
Quoting 134. Camerooski:

Can you imagine a hurricane like Wilma hitting FLA on the 10 year anniversary?! Would be illuminati confirmed lol
Quoting 136. sar2401:

1008 mb is pretty low on the DOOM!!! scale though. :-) The GFS has consistently had a storm between 336 and 372 hours for the past three days. When I run the model back in time, however, I can never find a consistent seed. All I see is a low appearing, disappearing, and hopping around from Columbia to the Gulf of Panama. And, it is 336 hours out...
My prediction as I mentioned a few days ago was the seed for the disturbance was from the tropical wave axis of 91L or ex-91L in which case it would take approximately 5-7 days to reach the western Caribbean with a front coming down in that time frame it would force lowering of pressures at the surface where we would have a good chance of convergence. To sum it up the tropical wave meets up with the washed out front that becomes a trough of low pressure in the Western Caribbean.
SSTs temps in the NW Caribbean and southeast Gulf of Mexico are still quite warm. So if the MJO comes around like many here are forecasting and if convection can persist, shear reduced. We might have something. GFS just is not reliable though, even though it is a solid Forecast model, I would want to see what the ECMWF is showing first
This is a fairly good map ...



Click on map to enlarge.
Camerooski I love your enthusiasm if we get a strong storm here, YOu and I are going Hurricane Chasing
Quoting 142. WeatherConvoy:

Camerooski I love your enthusiasm if we get a strong storm here, YOu and I are going Hurricane Chasing
damn right bro! Where are you in FL? Im in Fort laud.
Quoting 136. sar2401:

1008 mb is pretty low on the DOOM!!! scale though. :-) The GFS has consistently had a storm between 336 and 372 hours for the past three days. When I run the model back in time, however, I can never find a consistent seed. All I see is a low appearing, disappearing, and hopping around from Columbia to the Gulf of Panama. And, it is 336 hours out...
Its not 1008, its 992.. Remember Joaquin was a Cat 1 at 992...
Quoting 131. sar2401:

That pretty well confirms the accuracy of my local TV mets. Every cloud has rain, all rain might be in a thunderstorm, all thunderstorms might be severe, and all severe thunderstorms might have a tornado. Unless it's absolutely clear, there's always a chance of rain with them.

Sar based on statistical data I just watched my last local TV weatherman broadcast
Quoting 129. hurricanes2018:



Tropical Storm JOAQUIN HAS BEGUN ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW..

Joaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone. The cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the center partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep
convection. In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western periphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming better defined well northeast of the center. Earlier ASCAT data
still showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt.
Jason, I see they are still expecting it to hit the UK and later western Europe ....
Quoting 143. Camerooski:

damn right bro! Where are you in FL? Im in Fort laud.

Camerooski I am in Wellington Florida. I hope u are a MET student because if you are not YOU should be. You RULE DUDE. I will send u an email with my contact info
Quoting 140. WeatherConvoy:

SSTs temps in the NW Caribbean and southeast Gulf of Mexico are still quite warm. So if the MJO comes around like many here are forecasting and if convection can persist, shear reduced. We might have something. GFS just is not reliable though, even though it is a solid Forecast model, I would want to see what the ECMWF is showing first
Very true, but the GFS is also still a reliable model, were not talking about the CMC here....
Quoting 147. WeatherConvoy:


Camerooski I am in Wellington Florida. I hope u are a MET student because if you are not YOU should be. You RULE DUDE. I will send u an email with my contact info
Im 15 lol and in 9th grade, but would like to go to Univ. of Miami (where my parents went) I want to Major in Business and Minor in Meteorology... ;)
Quoting 132. BahaHurican:

I'm confused. Are you saying one route was down the west side of Cat Island and Long Island through the Exuma Sound? And the other was straight down the east side of those islands and past The Turks and Caicos to the east?
No, I screwed that up. I'd stay in Exuma Sound, avoiding the Exuma Bank, but the Exuma Sound was still too shallow for large vessels, so it was a good route for cruising boats. It's been 20 years since I was there so I'm going by memory. All the large vessels stayed stayed east of the islands and headed southeast past the Turks. There's actually a name for that deep water route, but I can't for the life of me remember what it is.
Quoting 146. BahaHurican:

Jason, I see they are still expecting it to hit the UK and later western Europe ....
Looks like it's taking a SE curve and going to hit Portugal first. That should be interesting.
Quoting 150. sar2401:

No, I screwed that up. I'd stay in Exuma Sound, avoiding the Exuma Bank, but the Exuma Sound was still too shallow for large vessels, so it was a good route for cruising boats. It's been 20 years since I was there so I'm going by memory. All the large vessels stayed stayed east of the islands and headed southeast past the Turks. There's actually a name for that deep water route, but I can't for the life of me remember what it is.
This is what I thought. It's the only way the El Faro would have been caught. The storm intensified just as they were getting into the area near San Sal, but instead of scooting west and out of their way before they got into the area, it kept dropping south south east as it was intensifying. If you look back at that map, realistically they would have had to come back through the Providence Channel, which they prolly passed while Joaquin was at best a cat 1. Someone else said once they left Jax, it was basically all over for the El Faro, and I guess I can see why that might be true.
Quoting 144. Camerooski:

Its not 1008, its 992.. Remember Joaquin was a Cat 1 at 992...
Ah, I read the wrong low. Once it starts coming within range of the ECMWF we'll see what happens. Even the 240 hours of the ECMWF is pretty far out, but not as bad as the 14 days on the GFS. The other thing to remember is how poorly most of the models other than the HWRF and GFDL do on intensity. Those kick on at about 6 days, and I'd be reluctant to believe the GFS intensity at 14 days.
And there's the big ole ojo of Oho, visible as the wind shear starts to blow off the higher clouds.
Quoting 119. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This next system might be rather large.




Taking on a track similar to Wilma, not as strong obviously though. The run seems a little far fetched to me though and too rushed. We would be seeing a disturbance form in three to four days at the rate the GFS proposes. If the Euro comes on board then maybe I'll start paying attention.
Quoting 136. sar2401:

1008 mb is pretty low on the DOOM!!! scale though. :-) The GFS has consistently had a storm between 336 and 372 hours for the past three days. When I run the model back in time, however, I can never find a consistent seed. All I see is a low appearing, disappearing, and hopping around from Columbia to the Gulf of Panama. And, it is 336 hours out...
336hours?
What are the chances the Twave formerly called invest 91L will contribute to this currently ghost storm? 10 days out what's left of it could at least potentially be in the WCar ...
Quoting 153. sar2401:

Ah, I read the wrong low. Once it starts coming within range of the ECMWF we'll see what happens. Even the 240 hours of the ECMWF is pretty far out, but not as bad as the 14 days on the GFS. The other thing to remember is how poorly most of the models other than the HWRF and GFDL do on intensity. Those kick on at about 6 days, and I'd be reluctant to believe the GFS intensity at 14 days.
I agree I dont have 100% confidence yet, but some models are starting to hop on board, and these October tracks support this...
Quoting 142. WeatherConvoy:

Camerooski I love your enthusiasm if we get a strong storm here, YOu and I are going Hurricane Chasing
Well, at least you're being honest, albeit in a roundabout way.

I will tell you this.. You guys are going to be most disappointed if a hurricane does not form over the NW Caribbean Sea in or around the third week of this month and no tropical cyclone slams into Florida. And I understand the excitement and anticipation of watching and waiting for hurricanes to form and to anticipate storm chasing and such. But if no storm hits Florida this season I know two things:

1. I myself will NOT be disappointed. This is because I have past experience with hurricanes and I found it to be decidedly unpleasant, especially the aftermath. It can sometimes be nightmarish and sometimes even deadly, which should not be forgotten.

2. Someday a hurricane will again hit Florida, including a major hurricane. I personally can be most patient in waiting for that to happen and so long as it doesn't happen, I will not be disappointed.
Had a chance to catch up on the news about El Faro from the last few days. This one article about the last personal e-mail that came from the ship alludes to they knew they were headed into the hurricane.

"Not sure if you've been following the weather at all," wrote her daughter, Danielle Randolph, from aboard the American container ship El Faro, "but there is a hurricane out here and we are heading straight into it. Winds are super bad and seas are not great. Love to everyone"
Active pattern kicking up over the North Pacific. Pretty amazing to see a hurricane at that location. Impressive Gulf of Alaska cyclone. The ridge that's doing its job as a wall off the California coastline is getting dirty. Milky skies and plenty of high and middle clouds in the SF Bay Area this afternoon, and muggier thanks to coastal SSTs in the 60s.
Quoting 152. BahaHurican:

This is what I thought. It's the only way the El Faro would have been caught. The storm intensified just as they were getting into the area near San Sal, but instead of scooting west and out of their way before they got into the area, it kept dropping south south east as it was intensifying. If you look back at that map, realistically they would have had to come back through the Providence Channel, which they prolly passed while Joaquin was at best a cat 1. Someone else said once they left Jax, it was basically all over for the El Faro, and I guess I can see why that might be true.
They could have escaped easily if the captain was clairvoyant. Just keep heading east after they left the Channel and out into the North Atlantic, then turn SE once they put about 100 miles behind them. That would have avoided Joaquin, but it would have been the worst path if Joaquin followed the path shown by almost every other model but the ECMWF. If the ECMWF track had been the official forecast at the time the El Faro put out to sea, a lot of different decisions would have been made. That would assume the NHC was clairvoyant. I suspect a combination of very few recent hurricanes to give the captain experience, a more rapidly intensifying and stronger hurricane than has been seen in the Bahamas since at least 1999, mechanical problems, and just bad luck doomed the ship once it set forth.
Umm, sorry, but this lost ship story is on the wrong page.
This is not about weather.
(Dons tinfoil hat.)
-- Dmp, dmp, duhhh! (dramatic background music)
Oh yeah, this is all about the mysterious...Bermuda Triangle, and the disappearances of many over the years.
:)
Quoting 136. sar2401:

1008 mb is pretty low on the DOOM!!! scale though. :-) The GFS has consistently had a storm between 336 and 372 hours for the past three days. When I run the model back in time, however, I can never find a consistent seed. All I see is a low appearing, disappearing, and hopping around from Columbia to the Gulf of Panama. And, it is 336 hours out...


Maybe we should check the 600-hour models, just to be on the safe side.
If nothing is seen showing after it hits the area, then maybe it never happened & was only a bug in the system.
Quoting 139. GTstormChaserCaleb:

My prediction as I mentioned a few days ago was the seed for the disturbance was from the tropical wave axis of 91L or ex-91L in which case it would take approximately 5-7 days to reach the western Caribbean with a front coming down in that time frame it would force lowering of pressures at the surface where we would have a good chance of convergence. To sum it up the tropical wave meets up with the washed out front that becomes a trough of low pressure in the Western Caribbean.



Might see a branch of this ex 91L wave consolidate strong convection to the north and another piece form it's own convection in the SW Caribbean. Looking like models may have to shift north. Interesting piece of energy in the southern branch of the wave for sure. I'm expecting strong convection to develop to the north of P.R/D.R. Could get a quick spin up. Models could get quite interesting again.
Quoting 158. Camerooski:

I agree I dont have 100% confidence yet, but some models are starting to hop on board, and these October tracks support this...
Cam, I know you want to see a hurricane, but you really have to start looking at the actual models and stop taking other people's word for it. There can't be any other models hopping on board. There's no other major model that goes out further than 240 hours. The GFS is it, and that's why you so often see it posted here, since it's the only one that goes into the fantasyland of 16 days.

I don't even know where the idea that Florida gets more hurricanes in October than any other month came from. Since 1851, Florida has had 22 hurricanes hit in September while October has seen 13. Of all the storms that form in October, about 72% go on to hit Florida compared to 50% in September, so the chances are greater an October hurricane will hit Florida than anywhere else, but there are still 41% less hurricanes as an absolute number in October than in September. Just pay attention to the models starting at 240 hours. That's when they start getting halfway reliable.

Link
It is a small possibility that one or maybe more of the crew survived, back in the 30s or 40s my Dad 1st cousin was the only one to survive as crew member of a boat that was lost in a hurricane, he drifted for days holding on to a drum but when he washed up on a island near CA he had to abandon it because of the decaying bodies, he washed up on Belize where most of skin was off his chest and he was nursed back health after many weeks . He was the the husband of the late Miss Lassie( Gladwyn Bush) well known for her art in the Cayman Islands!
So it is small possibility with a large Island chain such as the Bahamas some of the crew might be on one those Islands.
170. bwi
Quoting 141. BahaHurican:

This is a fairly good map ...



Click on map to enlarge.


Thanks for posting this -- I was wondering why the ship didn't just divert to Nassau! I guess I'd never make it as a sea captain. With an intensifying hurricane that could remain stationary or turn north, and no room to avoid to the south because of the shallows, the right course it seems would be to make for the NE Providence Channel and drop anchor off Nassau. You could still escape from there to the west if for some reason the hurricane turned toward Nassau. Plenty of large ships in that region, so plenty of depth to maneuver I would think.
Quoting 159. FLWaterFront:

Well, at least you're being honest, albeit in a roundabout way.

I will tell you this.. You guys are going to be most disappointed if a hurricane does not form over the NW Caribbean Sea in or around the third week of this month and no tropical cyclone slams into Florida. And I understand the excitement and anticipation of watching and waiting for hurricanes to form and to anticipate storm chasing and such. But if no storm hits Florida this season I know two things:

1. I myself will NOT be disappointed. This is because I have past experience with hurricanes and I found it to be decidedly unpleasant, especially the aftermath. It can sometimes be nightmarish and sometimes even deadly, which should not be forgotten.

2. Someday a hurricane will again hit Florida, including a major hurricane. I personally can be most patient in waiting for that to happen and so long as it doesn't happen, I will not be disappointed.
That's probably because you own property, have a responsible job, and have a family to take care of. If I was a young student, I'd be a lot more excited about seeing a hurricane too. Of course, no matter what your station in life, you still have to go through the hot, sweaty, dark, and stinky part after the storm goes through, but you won't know how bad that is until you actually have to go through it.
Quoting 168. stormpetrol:

It is a small possibility that one or maybe more of the crew survived, back in the 30s or 40s my Dad 1st cousin was the only one to survive as crew member of a boat that was lost in a hurricane, he drifted for days holding on to a drum but when he washed up on a island near CA he had to abandon it because of the decaying bodies, he washed up on Belize where most of skin was off his chest and he was nursed back health after many weeks . He was the the husband of the late Miss Lassie( Gladwyn Bush) well known for her art in the Cayman Islands!
So it is small possibility with a large Island chain such as the Bahamas some of the crew might be on one those Islands.
It's not impossible, and there have been a lot of those kinds of miracle survival stories. Statistically, the probability is less than 2%, and that's why the Coast Guard has suspended the active search. They'll continue to patrol the area, and I'm sure they'll be looking for any signals. We can only hope for another miracle survival story.
Quoting 156. Gearsts:

336hours?

174 hours?

Quoting 172. sar2401:

It's not impossible, and there have been a lot of those kinds of miracle survival stories. Statistically, the probability is less than 2%, and that's why the Coast Guard has suspended the active search. They'll continue to patrol the area, and I'm sure they'll be looking for any signals. We can only hope for another miracle survival story.


I agree, nevertheless these sometimes unbelievable story actually happen though I agree with statistical% of less than 2%
Captain was an idiot. Reminds me of the dipstick that captained the "Perfect Storm" boat
Found it by searching AMO reset El nino. Great info :D

791. Webberweather53
3:30 AM GMT on April 13, 2014
6 +
Quoting 784. Gearsts:
El nino helps the atlantic in the long term?

Yep, I'm going to back this up with numbers, etc. tomorrow, but El Nino is actually good for the long-term health of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, think of El Nino as a "reload" for the Atlantic. The enhancement of the subtropical jet & upper level westerlies, not to mention a lack of deep tropical activity to perturb surface waters leads to a new warming of the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic & promotes the AMO to head into positive territory.
In addition, the increased heat put up by the El Nino is circulated throughout the globe & raises not only the Atlantic, but the global ACE index. There are very notable trends in global ACE in association w/ ENSO phase, duration and even the overall PDO just w/ a simple glance over of the Global ACE index via Ryan Maue. Generally, El Ninos spike the Global Hurricane ACE Index, cold PDO & extended multi-yr La ninas lead to a substantial drop-off in activity.
Quoting 61. Misanthroptimist:


I appreciate the sentiment, Naga...but my choices are this:



or this:



I think the bottom pic is where I want to be. :-)



Well Florida might not have many water falls but there are still plenty of areas of beautiful land. Florida isn't all crowded tourists destinations. In fact, despite the really high population, most of it is concentrated in very large cities, such that there are many area of land with little to no population, even in Central and South FL.

Quoting 170. bwi:



Thanks for posting this -- I was wondering why the ship didn't just divert to Nassau! I guess I'd never make it as a sea captain. With an intensifying hurricane that could remain stationary or turn north, and no room to avoid to the south because of the shallows, the right course it seems would be to make for the NE Providence Channel and drop anchor off Nassau. You could still escape from there to the west if for some reason the hurricane turned toward Nassau. Plenty of large ships in that region, so plenty of depth to maneuver I would think.
You could use Nassau if it was an emergency, but you'd have to know that before you made the turn into port. However, you can't just sail a 790 foot vessel in and park. Nassau is heavily used by very large cruise ships, so you first need to find out the port traffic and if there's space for you. You'd also need to get a tug, since the channels are pretty restricted, and vessels that size wouldn't be permitted to use the port unassisted. The cruise ships also have assigned docks - you don't, so you they need to find a place to put you. Since you would have been hitting Nassau on Tuesday, when Joaquin hadn't gone further south and southwest and hadn't turned into a monster, and your engines were still working, the port is going to want to know exactly your emergency is. Your clairvoyance probably wouldn't be accepted as a reason. :-)
Quoting 173. sar2401:

174 hours?


Quoting 175. Owen415:

Captain was an idiot. Reminds me of the dipstick that captained the "Perfect Storm" boat
When did you get your Unlimited Master's LIcense?

The captain may have been incautious, foolish, he may even have been foolish, but he probably wasn't an idiot.
Quoting 168. stormpetrol:

It is a small possibility that one or maybe more of the crew survived, back in the 30s or 40s my Dad 1st cousin was the only one to survive as crew member of a boat that was lost in a hurricane, he drifted for days holding on to a drum but when he washed up on a island near CA he had to abandon it because of the decaying bodies, he washed up on Belize where most of skin was off his chest and he was nursed back health after many weeks . He was the the husband of the late Miss Lassie( Gladwyn Bush) well known for her art in the Cayman Islands!
So it is small possibility with a large Island chain such as the Bahamas some of the crew might be on one those Islands.
IMO one of the reasons the helicopter stopped at Samana Cay and picked up the guys stranded there was because they were looking the Cay over in case somebody got there. At the time of the last "ping" Samana would have been just about the closest land, and it would have been near / across the eye from the doomed ship.

Unfortunately once you get out past Samana and San Sal, there's not much to see until Bermuda in that direction. I'm assuming that as they did the survey of Long Island etc. they checked coastal areas. If anybody got up onto one of the "big" islands, there's a very good chance they'd be found. Really, the islands are not that big.

However, I agree there is hope .... dwindling, but still there.
Quoting 179. Gearsts:


Do you think that precipitation might be a trough pushing offshore?
Quoting 170. bwi:



Thanks for posting this -- I was wondering why the ship didn't just divert to Nassau! I guess I'd never make it as a sea captain. With an intensifying hurricane that could remain stationary or turn north, and no room to avoid to the south because of the shallows, the right course it seems would be to make for the NE Providence Channel and drop anchor off Nassau. You could still escape from there to the west if for some reason the hurricane turned toward Nassau. Plenty of large ships in that region, so plenty of depth to maneuver I would think.
Agreed. Thing is, by the time the captain likely realized the deep doo doo he was in, NE Providence would have been well to stern. They say hindsight is 20/20, and this is one example of why .... :o/

Quoting 178. sar2401:

You could use Nassau if it was an emergency, but you'd have to know that before you made the turn into port. However, you can't just sail a 790 foot vessel in and park. Nassau is heavily used by very large cruise ships, so you first need to find out the port traffic and if there's space for you. You'd also need to get a tug, since the channels are pretty restricted, and vessels that size wouldn't be permitted to use the port unassisted. The cruise ships also have assigned docks - you don't, so you they need to find a place to put you. Since you would have been hitting Nassau on Tuesday, when Joaquin hadn't gone further south and southwest and hadn't turned into a monster, and your engines were still working, the port is going to want to know exactly your emergency is. Your clairvoyance probably wouldn't be accepted as a reason. :-)
They'd do better to just hang about in the lanes, really. I've seen boats that big in here oncet or twicet, but the average freighter coming in here is likely closer to 500 ft. They'd try to stick them down in the new port, but I can't figure out where else they'd fit.

On the clairvoyance, you COULD say your engines were giving you trouble, as within 24 hours that would actually be the case ....

Quoting 183. Camerooski:

Guys, I know the situation with El Faro is horrible and a tragedy, but let's save the theories for the media, we should be talking about the floods in SC and NC, or the latest GFS and ECMWF runs, or the strongest El Nino on record, or the upcoming winter, or 2016's hurricane season...
El Faro is the topic of the blog. It is still a wx story. All the "speculation" we're doing is basically considering what wx conditions might have been impacting the ship.
186. MahFL
Quoting 5. BobinTampa:



from what I understand, the ship would have been able to avoid the storm for the most part but lost propulsion. The captain didn't decide to sail off into the eye of a hurricane. His ship became disabled in the path of the storm.


What evidence do you have for that ? The Coastguard said when they lost power the waves were 50 feet high, that's way too late and way too close to the storm.
Quoting 168. stormpetrol:

It is a small possibility that one or maybe more of the crew survived, back in the 30s or 40s my Dad 1st cousin was the only one to survive as crew member of a boat that was lost in a hurricane, he drifted for days holding on to a drum but when he washed up on a island near CA he had to abandon it because of the decaying bodies, he washed up on Belize where most of skin was off his chest and he was nursed back health after many weeks . He was the the husband of the late Miss Lassie( Gladwyn Bush) well known for her art in the Cayman Islands!
So it is small possibility with a large Island chain such as the Bahamas some of the crew might be on one those Islands.


What an amazing story to have in your heritage. Here's hoping some of the crew will have a story like that to tell.
188. MahFL
Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:



Point taken; perhaps the Captain was aware of the storm, was charting a course around the system, and the engines failed because of a mechanical failure (not related to the storm). I did not mean to sound insensitive to the missing crew.


We do not know if the engine failure was storm related or not, in my opinion it was.
189. IDTH
Quoting 176. Gearsts:

Found it by searching AMO reset El nino. Great info :D

791. Webberweather53
3:30 AM GMT on April 13, 2014
6 +
Quoting 784. Gearsts:
El nino helps the atlantic in the long term?

Yep, I'm going to back this up with numbers, etc. tomorrow, but El Nino is actually good for the long-term health of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, think of El Nino as a "reload" for the Atlantic. The enhancement of the subtropical jet & upper level westerlies, not to mention a lack of deep tropical activity to perturb surface waters leads to a new warming of the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic & promotes the AMO to head into positive territory.
In addition, the increased heat put up by the El Nino is circulated throughout the globe & raises not only the Atlantic, but the global ACE index. There are very notable trends in global ACE in association w/ ENSO phase, duration and even the overall PDO just w/ a simple glance over of the Global ACE index via Ryan Maue. Generally, El Ninos spike the Global Hurricane ACE Index, cold PDO & extended multi-yr La ninas lead to a substantial drop-off in activity.


I honestly think that is why 2013 was so dead. 2010, 2011, and 2012 were both super active, the quality of storms wasn't great however in 12, the quantity of them was a lot. The pattern for 2016 looks like a bad one though, if this season is hinting towards next season, I worry greatly, because the Caribbean waters haven't been touched in years along with Gulf of Mexico either, and if we have weak shear and a strong Bermuda high (that is the question), next season could get really bad. This is all speculation of course but I just fear what 2016 could bring.
Good evening

The tale of the El Faro is a poignant reminder of how great the sea is and how small our ships are at the best of times. Mankind will continue to ply the waves and at times the ferocity of nature will take its toll.

In my family, my mother lost two brothers at sea from vessels that foundered in harsh conditions.

The ocean is still very much a final frontier and a harsh mistress.

May God bless the souls of those who went down with the ship.

My father, his father and two of his brothers were all ship's captains who had the good fortune to survive the sea. Many have not been so fortunate.
Quoting 171. sar2401:

That's probably because you own property, have a responsible job, and have a family to take care of. If I was a young student, I'd be a lot more excited about seeing a hurricane too. Of course, no matter what your station in life, you still have to go through the hot, sweaty, dark, and stinky part after the storm goes through, but you won't know how bad that is until you actually have to go through it.
Yes you are right on all counts.

Camerooski has said that he is 15 and lives in Fort Lauderdale. If he was living there when Wilma went through he would have been five years old. When one is a small child, discomfort is often barely recognized, it is nature's way of protecting young children. And of course they have no concept of the issues that adults face, including the anxiety of knowing too much to be able to avoid increased pain and discomfort, extended worry about the details and so on and so on.

Likewise, when I was 15 I was already living in Florida and I remember that I too was excited at the prospect of experiencing a hurricane. My parents however were not as enthusiastic about that prospect. And naturally, now I know why they had that perspective. It has been said a billion times but it still remains true.. We live and learn.
Synopsis: El Faro potentially had a 100 ft wave to deal with at some point. Use the following from Wiki to get an idea.
When NOAA forecasts 50 ft waves, that is the avg of the highest third... not the highest.

Statistical distribution of the heights of individual waves -

Statistical distribution of ocean wave heights
Significant wave height, scientifically represented as Hs or Hsig, is an important parameter for the statistical distribution of ocean waves. The most common waves are less in height than Hs. This implies that encountering the significant wave is not too frequent. However, statistically, it is possible to encounter a wave that is much higher than the significant wave.

Generally, the statistical distribution of the individual wave heights is well approximated by a Rayleigh distribution.[4] For example, given that Hs is 10 metres (33 feet), statistically:

1 in 10 will be larger than 10.7 metres (35 ft) - 50' avg =53.5'
1 in 100 will be larger than 15.1 metres (50 ft) - 50' avg = 75.5'
1 in 1000 will be larger than 18.6 metres (61 ft) - 50' avg = 93'

If you see a wave every 12 seconds or 5 per minute (making up a number, but close) you will see 1000 waves in 3.3 hours and you might expect to see one near 100' .

This implies that one might encounter a wave that is roughly double the significant wave height. However, in rapidly changing conditions, the disparity between the significant wave height and the highest individual waves might be even larger. Just one wave of this magnitude would be difficult to handle even with an operating engine.

As to the judgement of the Captain, it is hard to say, but these people are seasoned mariners yet events can cascade badly when it gets rough on the ocean. Very hard to second guess too much at this point, other than to say some good people are probably not going home.
194. MahFL
Quoting 75. JustPlantIt:

I lurk to find information here. This makes me sick to know that 33 people are missing. 'Calling off the search'. WOW. ..


The two kids did not go missing in what turned out to be a Cat4 hurricane, even one of the El Faro's lifeboat was smashed to pieces. The Coast Guard do not call off searches lightly.
195. MahFL
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



... but they chose to challenge nature well nature won...


There was no "they", it was either the Captains fault or the owners fault telling the Captain to get to PR on time.
Remember the replica ship that sank trying to skirt Super Storm Sandy, it sunk because the Captain misjudged how strong Sandy was and his ships capabilities.
The QE 2 was once assaulted by waves 90 feet high. The Atlantic is a very dangerous place at the best of times.

Link
Tip end of a 200 mph jet coming into view across the North Pacific, and Oho still alive.
198. MahFL
Quoting 94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

>when you set sail out of port
there is always a chance
you may never come back
always


Same with all journey's, sometimes you don't make it to your destination.
Quoting 193. naviguesser:

Synopsis: El Faro potentially had a 100 ft wave to deal with at some point. Use the following from Wiki to get an idea.
When NOAA forecasts 50 ft waves, that is the avg of the highest third... not the highest.

Statistical distribution of the heights of individual waves -

Statistical distribution of ocean wave heights
Significant wave height, scientifically represented as Hs or Hsig, is an important parameter for the statistical distribution of ocean waves. The most common waves are less in height than Hs. This implies that encountering the significant wave is not too frequent. However, statistically, it is possible to encounter a wave that is much higher than the significant wave.

Generally, the statistical distribution of the individual wave heights is well approximated by a Rayleigh distribution.[4] For example, given that Hs is 10 metres (33 feet), statistically:

1 in 10 will be larger than 10.7 metres (35 ft) - 50' avg =53.5'
1 in 100 will be larger than 15.1 metres (50 ft) - 50' avg = 75.5'
1 in 1000 will be larger than 18.6 metres (61 ft) - 50' avg = 93'

If you see a wave every 12 seconds or 5 per minute (making up a number, but close) you will see 1000 waves in 3.3 hours and you might expect to see one near 100' .

This implies that one might encounter a wave that is roughly double the significant wave height. However, in rapidly changing conditions, the disparity between the significant wave height and the highest individual waves might be even larger. Just one wave of this magnitude would be difficult to handle even with an operating engine.

As to the judgement of the Captain, it is hard to say, but these people are seasoned mariners yet events can cascade badly when it gets rough on the ocean. Very hard to second guess too much at this point, other than to say some good people are probably not going home.

A true rogue wave would be a manifestation of constructive wave interference, perhaps the result of one wave train intersecting another, something you might expect with the various wind surges in an intensifying hurricane.
(understood)
201. MahFL
Quoting 102. Sandcat:

It's okay to have hope. For a while. Those lifeboats (and reports said there were several aboard) have a few weeks of provisions aboard. Albeit if the uscg was following drift patterns, which I'm sure they were, one would think they'd have spotted them as they are bright orange. Stranger outcomes have happened though when all hope was lost.


The one open topped life boat they found was smashed to pieces and the one person they found was very very dead.
Survival in those conditions is as close to zero as you can get.
Quoting 201. MahFL:



The one open topped life boat they found was smashed to pieces and the one person they found was very very dead.
Survival in those conditions is as close to zero as you can get.


Launching a life boat from a ship with no propulsion to head into the seas and being tossed by a hurricane was probably a non starter to begin with. If it was a traditional lifeboat lowered from davits, which pictures of the El Faro seem to suggest, then the odds of a successful launch with occupants was probably slim to none. Even modern life boats launched from rails once the crew are on board and strapped in would be a scary proposition from several decks above sea level depending on wave height and wind at the time.

Sad to say but the final moments on that ship would have been nothing short of sheer terror. I doubt abandoning ship was a realistic option. More than likely they all had survival suits on hoping against the odds that staying with the ship was the best option.
203. MahFL
Quoting 124. DogtownMex:



Why would a turn back be problematic considering the situation ahead?


Turning a ship broadside to the winds and waves is very dangerous in a cyclone, can cause a capsize.
Only 13 hurricanes hit Florida in October from 1851 on? I thought there were more. I'll look through HURDAT, and even when the storms are rather small I'm going to count them all.
Quoting 203. MahFL:



Turning a ship broadside to the winds and waves is very dangerous in a cyclone, can cause a capsize.

Especially a single screw which the El Faro looked to be from the sole stack.
Top 4 reasons not to get excited about this.
1) 336 hrs. out
2)18Z run
3)GFS is alone on this.
4)You will look like a buffoon when it doesn't happen.
207. MahFL
Quoting 146. BahaHurican:

Jason, I see they are still expecting it to hit the UK and later western Europe ....


It's not going to the UK, it's going to Portugal, which is way way south of the UK.
Quoting 204. BaltimoreBrian:

Only 13 hurricanes hit Florida in October from 1851 on? I thought there were more. I'll look through HURDAT, and even when the storms are rather small I'm going to count them all.


Opal & Wilma are 2 of the 13.
209. MahFL
Quoting 161. Skyepony:

Had a chance to catch up on the news about El Faro from the last few days. This one article about the last personal e-mail that came from the ship alludes to they knew they were headed into the hurricane.

"Not sure if you've been following the weather at all," wrote her daughter, Danielle Randolph, from aboard the American container ship El Faro, "but there is a hurricane out here and we are heading straight into it. Winds are super bad and seas are not great. Love to everyone"


There was supposedly another email from a deck hand who said something along the lines no storm was going to delay them, kind of indicating maybe a sense of the whole crew thought they could sail by the hurricane safely.
The last advisory has been issued on Joaquin. I'm so sad. He really tried. and he was basically our entire season. He will be missed.
Quoting 204. BaltimoreBrian:

Only 13 hurricanes hit Florida in October from 1851 on? I thought there were more. I'll look through HURDAT, and even when the storms are rather small I'm going to count them all.
"A Day in the Life" ref there, BB? :P

Jo
212. MahFL
Quoting 180. sar2401:

When did you get your Unlimited Master's LIcense?

The captain may have been incautious, foolish, he may even have been foolish, but he probably wasn't an idiot.


He may have made in the end an idiotic decision, we don't know at this point, one fact remains though his ship sank and all hands are presumed lost.
Quoting 208. StormTrackerScott:
Opal & Wilma are 2 of the 13.
Actually two of the 37. 3 other October hurricanes brought hurricane force winds to Florida without making landfall in the state, for a total of 40 if you count those.

I thought 13 was low but I wasn't expecting that many. October hurricanes were frequent in Florida before 1910, and from 1941-1968.
Quoting 210. eyewallblues:

The last advisory has been issued on Joaquin. I'm so sad. He really tried. and he was basically our entire season. He will be missed.
He won't be missed by a lot of people in the Bahamas or South Carolina. That could have been a terrible storm for even more people. It's still not done and will strike Portugal as a strong extratropical storm and cause havoc in other parts of Europe . I don't have many good things to say about Joaquin. I'm happy to see him go.
Quoting 204. BaltimoreBrian:

Only 13 hurricanes hit Florida in October from 1851 on? I thought there were more. I'll look through HURDAT, and even when the storms are rather small I'm going to count them all.


Hey, BB. When you look it up make sure you include all hurricanes. The number 13 may only be major hurricanes. Sometimes when people look things up too fast, they miss a few things.
216. MahFL
Quoting 202. kmanislander:



More than likely they all had survival suits on hoping against the odds that staying with the ship was the best option.


You can't operate a ship in a survival suit, you only put them on when the abandon ship command is issued.
Quoting 215. Grothar:
Hey, BB. When you look it up make sure you include all hurricanes. The number 13 may only be major hurricanes. Sometimes when people look things up too fast, they miss a few things.
Even when they were rather small I counted them all :) 10 were major.
Quoting 213. BaltimoreBrian:

Actually two of the 37. 3 other October hurricanes brought hurricane force winds to Florida without making landfall in the state, for a total of 40 if you count those.

I thought 13 was low but I wasn't expecting that many. October hurricanes were frequent in Florida before 1910, and from 1941-1968.
I only know what I found at the linked site. How many have you found, and how many September compared to October? I imagine the ratio is still the same.
Quoting 212. MahFL:



He may have made in the end an idiotic decision, we don't know at this point, one fact remains though his ship sank and all hands are presumed lost.
Idiot is another word for dolt. You don't get an Unlimited Master's LIcense and be a Merchant Marine captain for 20 years and be a dolt. That was my point.
Waves of 134ft were recorded in Ivan remember that.These storms can produce large waves in shallow water.Hurricane Louis produced a rouge wave that capsized a ship.
Quoting 209. MahFL:



There was supposedly another email from a deck hand who said something along the lines no storm was going to delay them, kind of indicating maybe a sense of the whole crew thought they could sail by the hurricane safely.
Where did you see that? It's a new one on me.
BigDukenola7 back online.
223. MahFL
From Tote Maritime's website :

"Formerly Sea Star Line and Totem Ocean Trailer Express, TOTE Maritime Alaska and TOTE Maritime Puerto Rico connect communities to the rest of the world with safe, reliable shipping services."

They might want to rethink the "safe" wording.
I wonder what kind of survival suits the El Faro had. Thick insulated suits are good for Alaskan fishing boats but I think a thick insulated suit would cook you in 86 degree water. I'm not sure a thin suit would be any good for protection in rough water.
Don't post here often, but I can't help but think of the fate of the El Faro and its crew,

all it takes to shut down an engine (and therefore power) is for the motor to inhale even one cylinder of water, incompressible.

personal experience on a lake where this happened aboard a wave runner comes to mind, as well as being stranded in the middle of same lake.

it took hours to fix, once I was finally towed back to shore, and the wave runner no longer in the water.

Rogue waves have been known to exceed thrice the given sea conditions (50 foot seas, 150 ft rogue) if such a wave were to swamp such a vessel, even an engine the size of a house could be shut down in a heartbeat. it could take hours to fix such a condition.

On a modern vessel, with no power, there is no steering, no stability, nothing.

I now cringe at the memory of the cruise ship I once rode through a storm with 30 foot seas, it had power, it still wasn't a pleasant experience.
without power, I think it would've been ugly, tossed like a marionette.

a 700 foot vessel could easily succumb to 50 foot seas  in minutes without power

I think the El Faro ended up in a position where they couldn't turn back, lost power due to a seized engine, and succumbed to the waves.

Good weather forecasting, I dunno, there was a lot of uncertainty about this storm, with only the EMCWF predicting the proper outcome.


If anyone is interested in volunteering doing disaster relief with portlight or one of its partners,check out the e mail addy in the portlight featured entry.There is a great need from gutting homes to serving meals and water and many more.
Exposure to saltwater for extended periods even in fall full sun will dehydrate one in 96 hours...maybe more,.....
How bout them Cubs!
229. MahFL
A ship from the same company sailed right through Hurricane JQ :
That tells you all you need to know about the shipping business....

Quoting 184. BahaHurican:

Agreed. Thing is, by the time the captain likely realized the deep doo doo he was in, NE Providence would have been well to stern. They say hindsight is 20/20, and this is one example of why .... :o/

They'd do better to just hang about in the lanes, really. I've seen boats that big in here oncet or twicet, but the average freighter coming in here is likely closer to 500 ft. They'd try to stick them down in the new port, but I can't figure out where else they'd fit.

On the clairvoyance, you COULD say your engines were giving you trouble, as within 24 hours that would actually be the case ....


Yeah, he would have had to know the real track of the storm and fact it wasn't going to be "just" an 80 mph cat 1 but nearly a cat 4 in 12 hours, which would have been just about the time he was making the turn out of the Channel. He knew how bad it was once he got further south, but I don't know what the seas were like then and if he could have safely turned about. It's a longer timescale, but this is like trying to guess what went on in the cockpit for the last 10 seconds of a flight. The ship did have a data recorder on it. It sends out acoustic pings just like an aircraft data recorder. Even if they can find it in 14,000 feet of water, recovering it is another matter.

I've only sailed in Nassau once, and that was enough for me. It's no place for a 30 foot sailboat. He could have anchored out in the ship channel, but the port director would have had to be concerned about how good that anchoring job would be if Joaquin went north instead of south. It certainly was a possibility, and having a 791 foot ship loose in a confined harbor like Nassau Is not something the port director would like to risk. The captain could certainly say the engines had failed, but there's the engineering department plus that data recorder that wouldn't agree. Bottom line is he would have had to know the grave danger he was facing in time to make for port in Nassau. All I can say is that if I was sailing there, I don't think I would have known.
Quoting 229. MahFL:

A ship from the same company sailed right through Hurricane JQ :
That tells you all you need to know about the shipping business....


It tells you one ship didn't have a propulsion failure, and that large vessels sail though a typical cat 1 on a routine basis. Joaquin was not a beast when the El Yunque went through. No shipping company puts a ship that size in port because there's a hurricane as long as it isn't what Joaquin turned out to be. That's the case the vast majority of the time.
Quoting 221. sar2401:

Where did you see that? It's a new one on me.
it's likely possible we are somewhat foolish when it comes too nature and like to test its bounds I never heard anything like that either new one
There are only two types of survival suits, Arctic and Standard. I'm assuming they had the standard variety. You'd be amazed at how fast you can get cold in 86 degree water, but the survival suits I had on the boat were equipped with pit zips so you could open the armpits and admit some water if you really did get too hot. That could happen in full tropical sun, but not usually at night or with the weather conditions in a hurricane.
Quoting 232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it's likely possible we are somewhat foolish when it comes too nature and like to test its bounds I never heard anything like that either new one
The only email I've seen was from the female crew member. I still haven't heard at exactly what time that was sent.
Quoting 178. sar2401:

You could use Nassau if it was an emergency, but you'd have to know that before you made the turn into port. However, you can't just sail a 790 foot vessel in and park. Nassau is heavily used by very large cruise ships, so you first need to find out the port traffic and if there's space for you. You'd also need to get a tug, since the channels are pretty restricted, and vessels that size wouldn't be permitted to use the port unassisted. The cruise ships also have assigned docks - you don't, so you they need to find a place to put you. Since you would have been hitting Nassau on Tuesday, when Joaquin hadn't gone further south and southwest and hadn't turned into a monster, and your engines were still working, the port is going to want to know exactly your emergency is. Your clairvoyance probably wouldn't be accepted as a reason. :-)


This is a good mental exercise, SAR. Personally, my great hope is that out of the El Faro tragedy some new policies are put in place, whereby shipping companies and even trainees in (ship-)officer-school learn to treat tropical cyclones with greater respect. Every tropical storm/hurricane should be treated as a ticking bomb, if for no other reason than the remote possibility of rapid intensification.

In this day & age where we can pull up current, detailed weather on mobile phones and tablets, I just don't think a captain should be sailing into record-hot waters surrounding a tropical storm without intensely babysitting the storm via radio, internet, etc. I can understand the El Faro captain leaving the U.S. port when he did -- he had a job to do, a cargo to deliver. But to approach a growing, southward sliding tropical storm that is surrounded by record-hot waters, is like wanting to play with a rattlesnake...the risk of getting 'bitten' is just way, way too great. Statistics say you'd probably get through most such attempts; the killer is, man, what if this time you get it wrong??!

Everyone in the maritime-transport industry needs a deep knowledge of tropical cyclones -- not just of their 'normal' behaviors, but what the wildcard storms have done and can do.

[...back to lurking now]
Quoting 228. GTstormChaserCaleb:

How bout them Cubs!
Or those Indians! At least they finished one game over 500.
Quoting 202. kmanislander:



Launching a life boat from a ship with no propulsion to head into the seas and being tossed by a hurricane was probably a non starter to begin with. If it was a traditional lifeboat lowered from davits, which pictures of the El Faro seem to suggest, then the odds of a successful launch with occupants was probably slim to none. Even modern life boats launched from rails once the crew are on board and strapped in would be a scary proposition from several decks above sea level depending on wave height and wind at the time.

Sad to say but the final moments on that ship would have been nothing short of sheer terror. I doubt abandoning ship was a realistic option. More than likely they all had survival suits on hoping against the odds that staying with the ship was the best option.

cat 5 on the open sea
the most extreme environment imaginable
a certain death event
chances to live to tell the tale are likely zero
Quoting 230. sar2401:

Yeah, he would have had to know the real track of the storm and fact it wasn't going to be "just" an 80 mph cat 1 but nearly a cat 4 in 12 hours, which would have been just about the time he was making the turn out of the Channel. He knew how bad it was once he got further south, but I don't know what the seas were like then and if he could have safely turned about. It's a longer timescale, but this is like trying to guess what went on in the cockpit for the last 10 seconds of a flight. The ship did have a data recorder on it. It sends out acoustic pings just like an aircraft data recorder. Even if they can find it in 14,000 feet of water, recovering it is another matter.

I've only sailed in Nassau once, and that was enough for me. It's no place for a 30 foot sailboat. He could have anchored out in the ship channel, but the port director would have had to be concerned about how good that anchoring job would be if Joaquin went north instead of south. It certainly was a possibility, and having a 791 foot ship loose in a confined harbor like Nassau Is not something the port director would like to risk. The captain could certainly say the engines had failed, but there's the engineering department plus that data recorder that wouldn't agree. Bottom line is he would have had to know the grave danger he was facing in time to make for port in Nassau. All I can say is that if I was sailing there, I don't think I would have known.


Simple, take note, stay in port, don't go to sea when ever there is an storm brewing in areas where quick intensification is historically and climatologically possible. Put lives first
, that should be your priorities, money business can be worked out later...
Quoting 235. OrchidGrower:



This is a good mental exercise, SAR. Personally, my great hope is that out of the El Faro tragedy some new policies are put in place, whereby shipping companies and even trainees in (ship-)officer-school learn to treat tropical cyclones with greater respect. Every tropical storm/hurricane should be treated as a ticking bomb, if for no other reason than the remote possibility of rapid intensification.

In this day & age where we can pull up current, detailed weather on mobile phones and tablets, I just don't think a captain should be sailing into record-hot waters surrounding a tropical storm without intensely babysitting the storm via radio, internet, etc. I can understand the El Faro captain leaving the U.S. port when he did -- he had a job to do, a cargo to deliver. But to approach a growing, southward sliding tropical storm that is surrounded by record-hot waters, is like wanting to play with a rattlesnake...the risk of getting 'bitten' is just way, way too great. Statistics say you'd probably get through most such attempts; the killer is, man, what if this time you get it wrong??!

Everyone in the maritime-transport industry needs a deep knowledge of tropical cyclones -- not just of their 'normal' behaviors, but what the wildcard storms have done and can do.

[...back to lurking now]
There are many lessons to be learned here but the idea that any future captain can know more than this one did about a hurricane is pretty doubtful. Most cat 1's don't do what Joaquin did, and they don't do it in 12 hours. We usually have a better handle on track than we did for this one. Joaquin was like a rouge wave. We know they exist, and we know a ship can encounter one in its lifetime. Does that mean we should require every ship to constructed survive 100 foot waves? Not unless you want to pay a lot more for everything you buy. The El Faro had sailed the high seas for 40 years, part of which was in Alaska service, where big storms are the norm. It obviously never sank before. I don't know what the marine industry will do in response to this sinking. I do know that much improved hurricane forecasting is the real issue. Until we, or the international community, commit the money, time and talent to make some quantum leaps in forecast accuracy, things like this will happen again.
Quoting 238. HuracanTaino:



Simple, take note, stay in port, don't go to sea when ever there is an storm brewing in areas where quick intensification is historically and climatologically possible. Put lives as your priorities, money business can be worked out later...

If it was that simple, it would have happened. This is not a simple problem. How many other storms occur on a worldwide basis that are threatening? Every storm in the Caribbean has the possibility of doing what Joaquin did. Danny would have done the same thing if it was a larger storm. We can't just keep every ship in port based on that kind of reasoning.
I was on the USS Raleigh LPD1 a day east of Charleston when a late seaon noreaster caught us aand we flopped around like a dinghy for 10 hrs mostly fore and aft up and down with some port tostarboard rolls inputted now and then as well. That will grey up the saltiest among the Navy and Usmc aboard.
OK, enough from me tonight. I wasn't on the ship, and my opinions mean nothing in the final outcome. I can't even get the number of hurricanes in Florida right. :-)

See you all tomorrow.
Quoting 243. sar2401:

OK, enough from me tonight. I wasn't on the ship, and my opinions mean nothing in the final outcome. I can't even get the number of hurricanes in Florida right. :-)

See you all tomorrow.
yeah get some sleep be a nice new blog tomorrow
Quoting 204. BaltimoreBrian:

Only 13 hurricanes hit Florida in October from 1851 on? I thought there were more. I'll look through HURDAT, and even when the storms are rather small I'm going to count them all.
A quick scan of the HURDAT does seem to indicate that more than 13 hurricanes have affected Florida since 1851. I suspect though that some of those were not Florida landfalls but rather were hurricanes that passed close to Florida. I also suspect that some others were counted more than once, when they affected multiple zones. For and arbitrary example, a hurricane that entered SE Florida then crossed the state, emerging into the Gulf and then hooking to the right and reentering SW Florida and then passing through NE Florida on the way back out to sea in the Atlantic might be counted three times perhaps? I dunno but I suspect this is the case.
The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones.

Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
Quoting 245. FLWaterFront:

A quick scan of the HURDAT does seem to indicate that more than 13 hurricanes have affected Florida since 1851. I suspect though that some of those were not Florida landfalls but rather were hurricanes that passed close to Florida. I also suspect that some others were counted more than once, when they affected multiple zones. For and arbitrary example, a hurricane that entered SE Florida then crossed the state, emerging into the Gulf and then hooking to the right and reentering SW Florida and then passing through NE Florida on the way back out to sea in the Atlantic might be counted three times perhaps? I dunno but I suspect this is the case.


They have an asterisk by the hurricanes that did not make landfall. October hurricanes that brought hurricane force winds to FL but did not make landfall happened in 1898, 1926 and 1999 (Irene). 37 October hurricanes are listed as having made landfall in FL. The October 1916 storm which is listed as landfalling in Florida and Alabama has an official landfall point of 30.4 N 87.4 W which is in Florida. The 1870 hurricane brought hurricane force winds twice but I only counted it once.
Feedbacks from El Nino, similar to the great event in 1997.

Then: 1997 Indonesian forest fires "The 1997 group of forest fires in Indonesia that lasted well into 1998 were probably among the two or three, if not the largest forest fires group in the last two centuries of recorded history."

Now: Indonesian forest fires on track to emit more CO2 than UK
"The fires, mostly started deliberately and illegally to clear forest for paper and palm oil production, are on track to match the worst ever year of 1997. As in that year, the region is currently experiencing a strong El Nino climate phenomenon. This creates drought conditions in Indonesia, exacerbating years of draining of peatlands, and creating tinderbox conditions. ...The health impact of the forest and peat fires is also expected to be large, with the resulting premature deaths across south-east Asia estimated at 110,000 deaths in an average year. More than 75,000 people are already suffering from upper respiratory infections as a result of the haze, according to media reports."
This hurricane seems to have a unique track, making landfall in northeast Mexico (but bringing hurricane winds to much of the Texas coast), Louisiana and then north central Florida!



HURDAT gives it hurricane intensity at all three landfalls.
This list gives every hurricane to hit the US from 1851-2014

This list
gives every landfall point each hurricane made.
Quoting 250. BaltimoreBrian:

This list gives every hurricane to hit the US from 1851-2014

This list
gives every landfall point each hurricane made.


How do we know there weren't some missed before the satellite era? :):)
Quoting 251. Grothar:

How do we know there weren't some missed before the satellite era? :):)
I have confidence in you Grothar, since you were making the observations back then :)

HURDAT does have some uncertainty. In the detailed list HURDAT has several notes at the bottom. This is one:

$ - Indicates that the hurricane may not have been reliably estimated for intensity (both central pressure and maximum 1-min windspeed) because of landfall in a relatively uninhabited region. Errors in intensity are likely to be underestimates of the true intensity.
Quoting 242. CaribBoy:


Nice convection on ex invest 91L...
Quoting 251. Grothar:



How do we know there weren't some missed before the satellite era? :):)
I know this is a trick question, but let me hazard a guess: because all of those storms made landfall in the US. People are very good at detecting hurricanes.

I think the term "before the satellite era" is quite overused, as if the historical record only began after satellites were launched. In fact, I would not be surprised if many strong tropical waves that lacked an LLC got classified as tropical cyclones before satellites could be used to detect low-level winds, so the argument can go both ways. Hurricane observations by aircraft were used well before the satellite era (The History of the Hurricane Hunters ), and ship observations well before then.
Quoting 231. sar2401:

It tells you one ship didn't have a propulsion failure, and that large vessels sail though a typical cat 1 on a routine basis. Joaquin was not a beast when the El Yunque went through. No shipping company puts a ship that size in port because there's a hurricane as long as it isn't what Joaquin turned out to be. That's the case the vast majority of the time.
RIP , El Faro, our faithful Cargo Ship, working for us, every week since 1973, Puerto Rico say thank you for your service, and Good bye .......Adios, hasta siempre.....
Quoting 249. BaltimoreBrian:

This hurricane seems to have a unique track, making landfall in northeast Mexico (but bringing hurricane winds to much of the Texas coast), Louisiana and then north central Florida!



HURDAT gives it hurricane intensity at all three landfalls.
Odd that this was named as the "Galveston Hurricane" when it appears the center of the storm never got closer to Galveston than at least 30 or 40 miles offshore. Also, Galveston was clearly on the "clean" side of the storm which would tend to lessen the effects there, I would think.
Quoting 237. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


cat 5 on the open sea
the most extreme environment imaginable
a certain death event
chances to live to tell the tale are likely zero


Very succinctly and aptly put...truly a Very tragic incident indeed. May the grieving families find the Peace, strength and consolation of the Lord Jesus in this time. And may they discover the healing grace and power that comes with time to be able to cope with this immense loss and tragedy.

May God Continue to Richly Bless us All!
next.....leftover91
I KNOW its the CMC but,in roughly the same place as GFS,roughly the same time period.....
combo? i see a stew cooking in the western carib. leftover 91 & bit of monsoon trough.
gfs 991 yet the canadian only has 1002mb. scary nevertheless as the s fl. & bahama areas can be very favorable
I thought the GFS was crap and should be ignored?
This is one hell of a WWB. Folks there is going to be a rapid uptick in sea surface anomalies from Nino 3.4 to Nino 1&2. Expect this El-Nino to max out extremely high. This TAO graph below is showing a complete reversal of trades across the Equatorial Pacific.

1997 couldn't even produce the type of WWB in October as like we have currently in 2015. So as it stands with this strong WWB and new Oceanic Kelvin Wave expect the Peak of this El-Nino to get pushed back from November to more like December maybe even January.

Notice the warm anomalies getting pushed down in depth @ 170W. This warm water is now nearing 200 meters.

Dear Bloggers the SOI Index on October 3rd was -49.70. That beats the low in June 0f -46 by 3 SDs. It looks to me like all systems go for a Super Nino. Or maybe THEE Super NINO
I will attempt to pull up Monthly SOI Index Totals.
Quoting 271. WeatherConvoy:

I will attempt to pull up Monthly SOI Index Totals.



30 day SOI is now @ -22. Very low number and lower than this time in 1997. I suspect this El-Nino is now going to peak later than 1997's ENSO did. This very strong WWB is going to be reckoned with down the road and will have major implications on the future strength of the El-Nino.

Here's 1997 (Values are much higher compared to October 2015)


Here's 2015 below. In October we are @ -22.5. October 1997 we were @ -15.

Hurricane Oho... not much of a hurricane with all that shear. Extratropical at this point.
Today's Geos-5 run shows these showers off the coast of East Central Florida this morning, looping through ECFL & NFL, then back east of Jacksonville, pulling together as a weak broad, then more sheared low as that moves away to the east and then more north.



This is the fourth day it's continued to show the possible storm out of the Caribbean. Shows in pulling together in less than 200hrs, so NASA's model isn't pushing this back into time with each run. Second run, trying to thread the needle, but not as strong as yesterday. Considering where it forms and how far out, my confidence in it, is still somewhat low. That storm in the Central Atlantic is new.
Quoting 267. tampabaymatt:




Is that ULL out West ever going to move?
Quoting 275. 69Viking:



Is that ULL out West ever going to move?


It is. Its going to move WSW then NE then SE over the next 2 weeks!
Quoting 275. 69Viking:



Is that ULL out West ever going to move?


It's moved slightly more east over the last few days, but definitely not moving much at the moment.
Speaking of the SOI expect values to continue to lower as pressures are forecast to remain very high over Darwin and very low over Tahiti.

Euro day 5
From Dominica weather service:

Bulletin Type: A Tropical Wave is affecting the Island

Date: Thursday, October 8, 2015

Time: 5:00 local time

A Tropical Wave is currently affecting the Lesser Antilles.

This feature will continue to generate cloudiness, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island chain during today, Thursday.

As a result, persons in areas prone to flash flooding, landslides and falling rocks should remain vigilant and exercise caution.

Here is a water vapor loop of the tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles this morning:

Quoting 273. Stoopid1:

Hurricane Oho... not much of a hurricane with all that shear. Extratropical at this point.



I agree. Shame it didn't cross into NHC's area of responsibility before it went extra tropical.
Quoting 110. win1gamegiantsplease:



Snow yay, ice nay

Mainly because of the drivers here, it's like they've never stepped on an ice cube before. And the vegetation, top heavy trees and palms (they don't like it).


But...but...I like snow and ice and sleet!!
283. beell
Quoting 261. islander101010:

combo? i see a stew cooking in the western carib. leftover 91 & bit of monsoon trough.


A developing gyre at 700 mb (good depth to the circulation) over Central America.


10/08 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, winds, rh-valid @ 228 hrs.

If I could sketch this on the ECMWF...I would. 700 mb rh not available...for free...


This past weekend's round of rain did little to impact the moderate drought we've been having lately around here. Pansies have perked up but with little rain in the 7-10 day forecast, I fear the little benefits we've received will be short-lived.
Quoting 275. 69Viking:



Is that ULL out West ever going to move?



at least it's moved east enough that we are not expecting severe weather today......yesterday golf ball size hail fell in chaparal....now it's sparsely populated...but i have a friend who lives there...and it just littered his brand new infinity with hail dings
Quoting 285. ricderr:




at least it's moved east enough that we are not expecting severe weather today......yesterday golf ball size hail fell in chaparal....now it's sparsely populated...but i have a friend who lives there...and it just littered his brand new infinity with hail dings


I'd like it to move far enough East to bring some rain to NW Florida, can do without the hail though.
Quoting 210. eyewallblues:

The last advisory has been issued on Joaquin. I'm so sad. He really tried. and he was basically our entire season. He will be missed.
not by the families of the crew of the El Faro
Quoting 278. StormTrackerScott:

Speaking of the SOI expect values to continue to lower as pressures are forecast to remain very high over Darwin and very low over Tahiti.

Euro day 5


Mornin' Scott I've been meaning to ask. Everyone has their passions in weather, what makes you such an El Nino fanatic?
Quoting 264. Grothar:


Dangerous area if something forms.
Does RI have more to do with very warm shallow water or a specific tropical system? I'm not familiar with the waters off southern China but, didn't ST Mujigae do basically the same thing that Juoquin did?
Quoting 290. Loduck:

Does RI have more to do with very warm shallow water or a specific tropical system? I'm not familiar with the waters off southern China but, didn't ST Mujigae do basically the same thing that Juoquin did?
We don't really understand all the conditions that cause RI. Warm water, lack of shear, and high relative humidity at all levels seem to be common denominators. At least as important is the structure of the storm and if it's capable of undergoing RI without significant disruption to the structure. We saw two instances of RI this year so far, one with Danny and and another with Joaquin. The RI process may have hurt Danny's overall structure while Joaquin is at the opposite end of the spectrum. An area like the Bahamas, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico have storms that undergo RI more often than other parts of the tropical Atlantic, but, like with Danny, it's been known to occur in any part of the Atlantic. RI, even in what seems to be otherwise ideal conditions, is still rare, with less than 5% of all storms undergoing RI. Muijigae did undergo RI similar to Joaquin, although much closer to shore and later in the development cycle. I really don't know enough about Pacific typhoons to say the RI process is the same as in the Atlantic, but I assume there are similarities.
Quoting 155. ElConando:



Taking on a track similar to Wilma, not as strong obviously though. The run seems a little far fetched to me though and too rushed. We would be seeing a disturbance form in three to four days at the rate the GFS proposes. If the Euro comes on board then maybe I'll start paying attention.
and once again the future K storm may have to enter the darn Gulf. Next week will be very interesting!
Quoting 289. hydrus:

Dangerous area if something forms.
Good morning, Hydrus. Have you noticed kind of a cycle this year, or is it just me? It seems like we go from quiet to a big burst of activity and then back to quiet again. We seem to have years when almost any invest turns into a storm, like 2004/05 or when almost none do, like 2013. I don't remember many years when the pattern seems to be more a sine wave like this year. I'd guess we're looking at another 10 days before we start coming out of the trough again.
Slow day....

Meanwhile, 95E chilling in the EPAC.

Quoting 288. LemieT:


Mornin' Scott I've been meaning to ask. Everyone has their passions in weather, what makes you such an El Nino fanatic?
Hi LemieT! Just had to ask, are you any relation to FloridaT ?
Quoting 280. 62901IL:



I agree. Shame it didn't cross into NHC's area of responsibility before it went extra tropical.


The CPAC has always been an area that interests me, and with it being so active this season in terms of storms that originated there, I have a feeling the South Pacific season will also be strong. I'm interested to see how many storms there form farther east than normal. Maybe a chance for the first storm to ever form or travel east of 120W? That would be really cool!
I hope this verifies for Puerto Rico. They can certainly use some rain.

Quoting 292. nrtiwlnvragn:

NOAA declares third ever global coral bleaching event
Bleaching intensifies in Hawaii, high ocean temperatures threaten Caribbean corals



I've only been diving in Hawaii twice, once off Maui in 2004 and then off the Big Island in 2007. Both times, the coral looked terrible. Some of it was killed by Hawaii's past ignorance of what sewage does to coral, but a lot of it was bleaching. There were hundreds of square yards of dead coral, sometimes further than what I was able to see. There were hardly any fish to see. I wouldn't waste my money going back there to dive. The Caribbean still looks pretty good in terms of coral (or at least did on my last dives in 2010) but, if it ever looks as bad as Hawaii, the Caribbean countries can kiss a large part of their tourist dollars goodbye.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 25m25 minutes ago
Atlantic SSTs went from top 10 coldest preseason to 4th warmest Sep (1948-15)- surprising! HT

Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
You have to be kidding me... our atmospheric ENSO index is moving back towards record highs again in late October!
2015, The year the climate strikes back
RAIN!!!!





Quoting 300. Gearsts:

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 25m25 minutes ago
Atlantic SSTs went from top 10 coldest preseason to 4th warmest Sep (1948-15)- surprising! HT

Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
You have to be kidding me... our atmospheric ENSO index is moving back towards record highs again in late October!
Good morning gearst...I believe this is only the beginning of the strange swing in global atmospheric patterns. Records broken will be the norm, unusual weather common.
Quoting 264. Grothar:




Well... that's not a good place for a Tropical Cyclone to form. Hope it doesn't come to fruition.
Quoting 301. Patrap:

2015, The year the climate strikes back
Greetings Pat. 2016 and on down the line. I fear that we are still in the active phase of the Atlantic. Just a brief pause and a welcome one at that...As yo know , people on the the east coast are still recovering from Sandy. Other areas from other storms too...and we are not even done with this season.

Wondered why it was overcast here and in Northern Calif too. A quick look at the Satellite revealed this.
Seems Oho has come to visit(from 1500 miles away).
Ex Joaquin

Quoting 294. sar2401:

Good morning, Hydrus. Have you noticed kind of a cycle this year, or is it just me? It seems like we go from quiet to a big burst of activity and then back to quiet again. We seem to have years when almost any invest turns into a storm, like 2004/05 or when almost none do, like 2013. I don't remember many years when the pattern seems to be more a sine wave like this year. I'd guess we're looking at another 10 days before we start coming out of the trough again.
MJO plays a role with the bursts of activity, but not always. Joaquin took one of the most bazaar paths I have seen in a long time.
Hi from Europe with calm weather at my place in Germany.
What's left of Joaquin and heading towards Portugal is showing up on the left of the satellite pic below. Moreover: lots of rain in northern Africa (Morocco, Algeria) which got alert level 2 by Estofex. This precipitation will move northeast over Italy and the Adriatic Sea until Sunday, dumping a lot of rain onto certain places (see map with accumulated rain below). Whether this system will become a bit "medicanish" - wait and see (a piece of the jetstream could create some spin on Saturday).



Quoting 299. sar2401:

I've only been diving in Hawaii twice, once off Maui in 2004 and then off the Big Island in 2007. Both times, the coral looked terrible. Some of it was killed by Hawaii's past ignorance of what sewage does to coral, but a lot of it was bleaching. There were hundreds of square yards of dead coral, sometimes further than what I was able to see. There were hardly any fish to see. I wouldn't waste my money going back there to dive. The Caribbean still looks pretty good in terms of coral (or at least did on my last dives in 2010) but, if it ever looks as bad as Hawaii, the Caribbean countries can kiss a large part of their tourist dollars goodbye.

I was there (Maui) in 2013, scuba diving, and the coral looked good, and there were many strange and beautiful fish to see. I would go there again. "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose."
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 303. CaribBoy:

RAIN!!!!








Awesome!
Quoting 291. sar2401:

We don't really understand all the conditions that cause RI. Warm water, lack of shear, and high relative humidity at all levels seem to be common denominators. At least as important is the structure of the storm and if it's capable of undergoing RI without significant disruption to the structure. We saw two instances of RI this year so far, one with Danny and and another with Joaquin. The RI process may have hurt Danny's overall structure while Joaquin is at the opposite end of the spectrum. An area like the Bahamas, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico have storms that undergo RI more often than other parts of the tropical Atlantic, but, like with Danny, it's been known to occur in any part of the Atlantic. RI, even in what seems to be otherwise ideal conditions, is still rare, with less than 5% of all storms undergoing RI. Muijigae did undergo RI similar to Joaquin, although much closer to shore and later in the development cycle. I really don't know enough about Pacific typhoons to say the RI process is the same as in the Atlantic, but I assume there are similarities.
thanks for taking the time...I didn't realize that < 5% underwent this phenomena. Sure seems like it's been more lately.
318. vis0

Quoting 19. pipelines:

Nothing about this makes sense, even the loss of power explanation. You're telling me a captain piloted a vessel all the way to within 40 miles of the center of a cat 3 hurricane before losing power? Not to mention that the storm AND vessel were both traveling in the same direction, it would have taken hours in terrible conditions to get that close.

The only explanation I can come up with is that the vessel was steered into the center of the storm on purpose. No captain that had any interest in surviving would have piloted a ship for that long, through conditions that bad, and not change course long before reaching the point they were at when power was lost.
MODS if its too weird remove.

Its also posted on my zilly blog cmmnt#145, posting it here as more people (a million fold more) will read it and maybe just maybe the theory will stick in a youngsters mind and in 20-30 yrs that youngster will think or joining some of what i stated below with new discoveries in science of that period in time and make greater discoveries and in turn her hard work to finding actual facts will lead to her receiving a noble prize.
PLEASE READ MY 22CENTS completely BEFORE you think "oh, geesh sciFic crap".

THE FOLLOWING DOES NOT REPRESENT THE VIEW OF ANYONE ON WxU or THIS PLANET except vis0::


The only explanations
I can come up with for the captain to continue into the storm is a
combo of loss of engine power + physical impairment (heart attack,
knocked around hit head or something fell and hit captain or steering
area causing steering to become obsolete or as "pipelines" states it was
steered purposely into the storms eye.

There is ONE MORE EXPLANATION, though  to most its not believable.

i have stated since the 1970s as to what i recently began to call The Magmasphere of Earth (a complex planet).


i use to call it 2 other names (no not crazy) including
Magnetosphere but that points to something else as i learned once i used
that word on the webnet in the early 1990s.

What i call
the Magmasphere are three levels of magnetized fluid like material which
at times, just like the 2 other biospheres have several levels that
join together and act in unison /as one.

The faster a
vortex rotates the weirder anything using electro-magnetic energies
will act ("weird" as to our present knowledge of science(s)), hence you
hear of a
Devil's Triangle. In reality (i STATE) its when
LOWs even HIGHs that have its "enclosed energy" spin at a high rates
leading to those electro-magnetic anomalies which can include going
and/or seeing other dimension. That will be known if you see an
orange sphere (meaning your are not dead...yet...(as the connected
self-soul-spirit sees that form of virgin hydrogen as orange-y hues in ~colour) as you are leaving one dimension towards another, alive). If you see it as
blueish (what i've called for 40+ yrs Turquoise Tubes), sadly your dying
or close to death as your self-soul-spirit connection to brain is
disconnecting and going into another dimension...you can come back from both but to do so needs others to get to you very fast as in connecting one to life support machines and or you subconsciously repeating a calming musical like mantra (acapella) like if you sing ♪ you want to come back to (ENTER LOVED ONE NAME HERE) as to see mother.♪ **

So could
the ship have entered that which i called in the 1990s an
Elecro-Magma-Interference-Vortex (EMIV) thus causing more confusion
leading some to think why didn't the captain steer away therefore think
the one in charge purposely sent the ship into the storm as in some
occasions the center of the storm becomes tru-north to a
gyroscope/compass or compu'r readouts. Now once you see that on your
compass, you're doomed as my terrible physics calculations leads me to
think as at that point when EMIV tru-North flips towards vertically
aligned rotations from the Magmasphere spinning through the center of
the LOW above, again in a sustained enclosing rotations in this case
the LOW has to be above 140mph for over a couple of minutes like a large
tornado within a hurricane effect where the balance is just right to
lead to only wrong as far as anyone still alive in it, if that possible.
or i could be 99.9% wrong.


Lets hope some survivors are found and if so that they are asked
questions in the correct manner as to get the most real recollections
without outside influences of others opinions, be it like my own or
others.

okay now that you've read it completely, now you can say "oh, geesh sciFic crap".

oh yeah my mantra as a kid was "i want to see my mother, otra vez" (hey i use Spanish-English combo i'm a Nu Yourican. One tune i wish i could use as a mantra but when i hear these words ..
-------------------------
Yeah, we leave things to change on (a dime) [[in]] their time


And our failure to care for (at least a stride) it leaves us blind


'til we're tired and we're crazed in the mind  [[oh too late in our time]]

(FROM :: THE DODOS, "Fools")

words in "[[here]] "are ones i add, ya know we always add words we prefer to well known tunes.
---------------------------
...it just tugs at my heart strings too much to repeat those words more than twice.

OF COURSE THIS CAN BE FIXED EASILY do good now be respectful to those that do not understand but do good so the future will be brighter for those to enjoy and pass on

observe weather wisely and learn ,peace
319. vis0
Quoting 232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it's likely possible we are somewhat foolish when it comes too nature and like to test its bounds I never heard anything like that either new one
Was that recorded as to Joaquin and to whom as if to a client then one might be trying to assure that no storm stops the delivery as they'll go another route to make sure you get your goods, like the post office motto but it doesn't mean the post office driver will drive through flooding to get you your [humor] tabloids [humor] .. i mean family mail.